01-18-23 |
TCU v. West Virginia OVER 148.5 |
Top |
65-74 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the TCU Horned Frogs (691) and the West Virginia Mountaineers (692). THE SITUATION: TCU (14-3) snapped a two-game losing streak with an 82-68 win against Kansas State as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. West Virginia (10-7) has lost five games in a row after their 77-76 loss at Oklahoma as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mountaineers are desperate for a victory after dropping their first five games in conference play. Three of these losses were on the road — and four of the losses were by seven points or less. Metrics guru Ken Pomeroy still ranks West Virginia ahead of the Horned Frogs with the Mountaineers ranked 24th in his rating system with TCU three spots behind at 27th. West Virginia is one of the best scoring teams in the nation — they rank 21st in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They rank 57th in the nation by pulling down 33.0% of their missed shots — and they should get plenty of second-chance points against the Horned Frogs. TCU ranks 265th in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 30.9% of their missed shots — and they have been worse in conference play by allowing their Big 12 opponents to pull down 34.1% of their misses, ranking 9th in the conference. West Virginia has played 15 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Mountaineers have played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. They return home where they are scoring 80.0 Points-Per-Game — and they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Over the Total. They have also played 11 of their last 15 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Head coach Bob Huggins' team is struggling due to the play of their defense — they rank 9th in the Big 12 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are giving their opponents too many shots at the charity stripe as they rank 337th in the nation in opponent free throw rate. The Mountaineers have allowed their last five opponents to score 77.0 PPG. West Virginia has played 39 of their last 54 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total when favored. TCU only made 46.5% of their shots on Saturday which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games — but they allowed the Wildcats to make 43.1% of their shots which was the best defensive effort in their last four contests, so the short-term numbers point to a higher-scoring game tonight. The Horned Frogs have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point-spread win. They have also played 8 straight Overs after winning at least eight of their last ten games. Head coach Jamie Dixon’s team should also get plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities tonight — they rank 27th in the nation by rebounding 35.1% of their missed shots. West Virginia is vulnerable on their defensive glass as they allow their opponents to rebound 28.7% of their missed shots, ranking 182nd in the nation. TCU goes back on the road where they are scoring 76.5 PPG. They have played 5 straight Overs on the road — and they have played 4 straight Overs against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court.
FINAL TAKE: The Horned Frogs have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and West Virginia has played 25 of their last 33 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s. 25* CBB Big 12 Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the TCU Horned Frogs (691) and the West Virginia Mountaineers (692). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-17-23 |
Boston College v. North Carolina OVER 143 |
Top |
64-72 |
Loss |
-140 |
1 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boston College Eagles (617) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (618). THE SITUATION: Boston College (8-10) has lost three games in a row after their 85-63 loss to Wake Forest as a 2.5-point underdog. North Carolina (12-6) has won three of their last four contests with their 80-59 victory at Louisville as a 13-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Tar Heels dominated the Cardinals on Saturday by holding them to just a 37.0% field goal percentage — the best defensive effort in their last 14 games. But North Carolina is not an elite defensive team this season. After ranking 35th in the nation last year in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their trek to the national championship game, they have dropped to 58th in that metric this season. But the Tar Heels remain an outstanding offensive team that ranks 18th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. North Carolina has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win of 20 or more points. They return home where they are making 48.1% of their shots which has resulted in 83.4 Points-Per-Game on their home court. The Tar Heels have covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Boston College only made 38.2% of their shots on Saturday in their loss to the Demon Deacons — that was the worst shooting effort in their last nine games. But the Eagles' defense continues to struggle as they allowed Wake Forest to nail 52.3% of their shots — and that came on the heels of them allowing Miami (FL) to shoot 60.4% from the field in their previous game. Boston College has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss by 20 or more points. They go back on the road where they allow their opponents to convert 49.5% of their shots. The Eagles have played 4 straight Overs on the road — and they have played 17 of their last 23 road games Over the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: North Carolina is 8-0 at home this season — and Boston College has seen the Over go 33-16-2 in their last 51 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. 25* CBB ACC Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Boston College (617) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (618). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-04-23 |
Bradley v. Murray State UNDER 132.5 |
Top |
58-67 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, whe will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Bradley Braves (707) and the Murray State Racers (708). THE SITUATION: Bradley (10-5) has won three of their last four games with their 79-45 victory against Illinois-Chicago as a 15-point favorite on Saturday. Murray State (8-6) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 78-61 win at Evansville as a 5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Braves made 52.6% of their shots against the Flames which was the best shooting mark in their last seven games. Bradley has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. Furthermore, the Braves have played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. This group is an outstanding defensive team that ranks 15th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Their stout defensive play starts from their interior defense which holds their opponents to 41.9% shooting inside the arc, ranking 7th in the nation. This spells trouble for the Tigers who get 53.7% of their points from 2-pointers, ranking 100th in the nation. In their four true road games, Bradley ranks 8th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. In their seven games away from home (including three games played on a neutral court), the Braves hold their opponents to 43.9% shooting which results in 65.3 Points-Per-Game. But Bradley only makes 39.4% of their shots away from home which is generating a mere 57.3 PPG. The Braves have played 5 straight Unders on the road — and they have played 5 straight Unders on the road against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Murray State has played 4 straight Unders after a point spread loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. They return home where they holding their opponents to 61.6 PPG. The Racers have played 5 straight Unders on their home court — and they have 17 of their last 25 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage at 40% or less on the road. Murray State scores 70.2 PPG on their home court — and they rank 255th in the nation in Adjusted Efficiency Rate on offense in their five games at home.
FINAL TAKE: The Racers rank 33rd in the nation in 3-point defense by holding their opponents to 29.1% shooting from behind the arc — and Bradley ranks 59th in the nation by getting 36.2% of their points from 3-point shooting. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Bradley Braves (707) and the Murray State Racers (708). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-03-23 |
Seton Hall v. Creighton UNDER 136 |
Top |
61-83 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seton Hall Pirates (627) and the Creighton Bluejays (628). THE SITUATION: Seton Hall (8-7) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 88-66 win against St. John’s as a 3-point favorite on Saturday. Creighton (8-6) has won two games in a row with their 80-65 win against DePaul as a 15.5-point favorite on Christmas Day.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pirates nailed 54.1% of their shots against the Red Storm — that field goal percentage along with their 88 points represented their best offensive numbers of the season. But Seton Hall has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 85 points in their last contest. The Under is also 11-3-1 in their last 15 games after winning their previous game by 20 or more points. And while the Pirates have played two straight Overs, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing two more Overs in a row. They go back on the road where they are only making 42.6% of their shots which is resulting in them scoring 65.0 Points-Per-Game in those contests — -4.9 PPG before their season average. Seton Hall has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total on the road — and the Under is 13-5-1 in their last 19 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Pirates are an outstanding defensive team in the first season under head coach Shaheen Holloway. Seton Hall ranks 29th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank 17th in the country by holding their opponents to 27.7% shooting from behind the arc. The Pirates like to get to the free throw line — they rank 6th in the nation in free throw rate. But now they play a Bluejays team that leads the nation in opponent free throw rate allowed. Creighton ranks 28th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also limit their opponents to pulling down only 21.8% of their missed shots, ranking 7th best in the nation. The Bluejays were on a six-game losing streak before winning their last two games by double-digit wins at home against Big East Rivals. Both of those games coincided with the return of Ryan Kalkbrenner who missed three games to an injury last month. Creighton has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning their previous two games against conference opponents by 10 or more points. They have made at least 54.0% of their shots in their last two games after not shooting better than 46.3% in their previous six contests. The Bluejays have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after shooting 50% or better from the field in two straight games. They have scored 158 combined points in their last two contests — but they have then played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. And in their last 5 games when playing with at least seven games between contests, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing with seven or more days between games. They stay at home where they rank 22nd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on their home court. They hold their opponents to 40.7% shooting which is translating into their opponents scoring just 60.1 PPG. The Under is 21-10-1 in Creighton’s last 32 games at home — and the Under is 8-1-1 in their last 10 home games against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 40% on the road. They have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored by 6.5 to 9 points. Additionally, the Bluejays have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s.
FINAL TAKE: Creighton has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and Seton Hall has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Tuesday FS1-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seton Hall Pirates (627) and the Creighton Bluejays (628). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-21-22 |
Arizona State v. San Francisco UNDER 144 |
Top |
60-97 |
Loss |
-130 |
1 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona State Sun Devils (741) and the San Francisco Dons (742). THE SITUATION: Arizona State (11-1) has won nine straight games after their 91-67 victory against San Diego as a 12-point favorite on Sunday. San Francisco (9-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 68-63 upset loss at UT-Arlington as a 15-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Sun Devils nailed 47.0% of their shots on Sunday which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. Arizona State has played 6 straight Unders after scoring at least 90 points in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, they have played 7 straight Unders after a win by double-digits at home — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points. The Sun Devils have also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row. They also allowed the Toreros to shoot 40.0% despite their opponent’s field goal percentage of 35.1%. Arizona State ranks 19th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they hold their opponents to 61.3 Points-Per-Game. The Sun Devils play outstanding half-court defense — they are 4th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 40.4% while ranking 2nd in the country by limiting their opponents to making only 39.1% of their shots inside the arc. Now Arizona State goes back on the road where they make only 42.2% of their shots. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. San Francisco has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They only shot 38.2% from the field against the Mavericks in their last game — but they did nail 13 of their 31 (42%) shots from 3-point range. The Dons have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after making 13 more snots from behind the arc in their last contest. San Francisco is not likely to come close to replicating that effort tonight considering they only make 32.7% of their 3-pointers, ranking 206th in the nation. The Dons are going to struggle to score against the Sun Devils. Most of their scoring comes from inside the arc where they make 53.1% of their shots, ranking 80th in the nation — but that plays right into the heart of the Arizona State defense. San Francisco ranks just 173rd in the nation in offensive rebounding — and they do not get to the free throw line as they rank 180th in the free throw rate. The Dons do not draw a ton of fouls — their last two opponents to committed just 14 and 11 personal fouls. San Francisco has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not drawing 15 or more fouls in two straight games. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing for the third time in the last seven days. They stay at home where they have played 4 straight Unders. They hold their guests to 41.2% shooting which results in 63.3 PPG. They also rank 38th in the nation in 3-point defense by limiting their opponents to a 29.0% shooting percentage from 3-point range.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona State will be looking to avenge a 66-65 loss at home to the Dons as a 2.5-point underdog last season. The Sun Devils have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total when favored. 25* CBB Wednesday CBS-Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona State Sun Devils (741) and the San Francisco Dons (742). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-07-22 |
Arizona State v. SMU UNDER 136.5 |
Top |
75-57 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona State Sun Devils (709) and the SMU Mustangs (710). THE SITUATION: Arizona State (8-1) has won six games in a row after their 68-64 win against Stanford as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. SMU (3-5) has lost two games in a row after a 69-68 upset loss to Jackson State as a 13-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Sun Devils have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up win including four straight Unders going into this game. They have also played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row. Arizona State has not allowed more than 65 points in seven straight games — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in two straight games. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in three straight contests. Head coach Bobby Hurley has his team playing outstanding defense. They rank 16th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and only one of their opponents has made more than 39.7% of their shots against them. They rank 4th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 38.9% — and the 24.4% shooting from behind the arc and the 40.2% shooting inside the arc by their opponents are both the 6th best cards in the nation. Their 5.8 blocks per game are 14th in the nation. On the road, they are holding their opponents to 36.8% shooting which is resulting in just 61.7 Points-Per-Game But Arizona State is making only 41.8% of their shots on the road which is translating into 69.0 PPG. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road. The Sun Devils are not a good outside shooting team as they make only 29.0% of their 3-pointers, ranking 312th in the nation. They rely on getting to the charity stripe given their free-throw rate which is 28th in the nation — but the whistles from the referees are not always as accommodating when playing in a hostile environment for just the third time this season. Arizona State has played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total with the number set in the 130s. SMU has played 5 straight Unders after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Mustangs can struggle to score points with only Zhuric Phelps and Zach Nutall averaging more than 9 PPG. SMU ranks 320th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 45.3%. They struggle with their shooting everywhere on the court — they rank 299th in the nation with a 29.5% shooting percentage behind the arc and 291st in the country with a 45.7% mark inside the arc. SMU is making only 40.0% of their shots which results in just 67.0 PPG. But the Mustangs are a solid defensive team that ranks 108th in the country in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They hold their guests to 39.4% shooting and 64.3 PPG when playing at home. They have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 17 of their last 26 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to six points.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 27-8-1 in Arizona State’s last 36 games against teams not winning more than 40% of their games — and they have played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total when favored. 25* CBB Wednesday ESPNU Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona State Sun Devils (709) and the SMU Mustangs (710). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-18-22 |
UCLA v. Illinois UNDER 145.5 |
Top |
70-79 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (885) and the Illinois Fighting Illini (886). THE SITUATION: UCLA (3-0) has opened their season with three straight victories after an 86-56 win against Norfolk State as a 20.5-point favorite on Monday. Illinois (3-0) has won their first three contests after a 103-65 victory against Monmouth as a 28-point favorite on Monday. This game will be played on a neutral court at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas for the Continental Tire Main Event tournament.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is the first true test for both these teams that have aspirations to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. The Bruins return Jaime Jaquez and Tyger Campbell from the group that finished 27-8 last season. But head coach Mick Cronin does replace Johnny Juzang and Jules Bernard who combined to score 28.4 Points-Per-Game last season. UCLA nailed 57.1% of their shots on Monday against Norfolk State which was the best shooting effort of their season. They allowed Norfolk State to make 47.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the year — so that end of the court will likely be an area of emphasis tonight for Cronin. The Bruins have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a game where they made at least 55% of their shots. They have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points. They have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. And while UCLA has scored at least 76 points in all three of their games, they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in three straight contests. And in their last 19 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher, they have played 14 of these games Under the Total. Illinois replaces ten players from their team that finished 23-10 including their top five scorers headlined by Kofi Cockburn who departed early for the NBA. Head coach Brad Underwood hit the transfer window hard by bringing in Terrence Shannon, Jr. from Texas Tech and Matthew Mayer from Baylor. They have a talented point guard in Sky Clark but he is a freshman who will be tested for the first by an elite opponent. The Fighting Illini made 59.7% of their shots against Monmouth which was the best shooting effort of the season — but they allowed them to make 42.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort of the season after holding their first two opponents to just 35.0% and 31.2% shooting. Illinois has played 4 straight Unders against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: This is the first game away from home for both teams. Both of these teams are struggling to make their free throws with UCLA making only 67.5% of their shots from the charity stripe and Illinois only hitting 64.6% of their freebies. The Illini have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140 to 144.5 point range. The Bruins have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140-144.5 point range. 25* CBB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (885) and the Illinois Fighting Illini (886). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-04-22 |
North Carolina v. Kansas UNDER 152.5 |
|
69-72 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the National Championship Game between the North Carolina Tar Heels (721) and the Kansas Jayhawks (722) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: North Carolina (29-9) won their 11th game in their last 12 with their 81-77 upset victory against Duke as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday. Kansas (33-6) won their tenth straight game with their 81-65 victory against Villanova as a 4-point favorite in their Final Four game on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Tar Heels held Duke to just 42% shooting with them missing 17 of their 22 shots from behind the arc. That was the second-highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games — but it was an impressive defensive display against a Blue Devils team that was leading the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. North Carolina has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset victory. They have also played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. The Tar Heels also pulled down 49 rebounds against Duke — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after grabbing at least 46 boards in their last game. Kansas made 54% of their shots in their victory against the Wildcats which was the best shooting effort in their last 12 games. They also made 13 of their 24 shots (54%) from behind the arc despite only making 33% of their shots from the 3-point range. While the Jayhawks have 76 and 81 points in their last two games, they have then played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. Kansas has really tightened things up in the second half of the season. While Villanova made only 39% of their shots, that was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in the Jayhawks’ last five games. Kansas has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after holding at least three straight opponents to no higher than a 40% field goal percentage. The Jayhawks have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: North Carolina ranks eighth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last ten games while Kansas ranks fourth in the nation in that defensive metric in their last ten games. Expect a lower-scoring game. 10* CBB Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the National Championship Game between the North Carolina Tar Heels (721) and the Kansas Jayhawks (722). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-02-22 |
North Carolina v. Duke OVER 150.5 |
|
81-77 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina Tar Heels (703) and the Duke Blue Devils (704) in the Final Four round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: North Carolina (28-9) has won 10 of their last 11 games after a 69-49 victory against Saint Peter’s as an 8.5-point favorite in the Elite Eight last Sunday. Duke (32-6) has won six of their last seven games with their 78-69 win against Arkansas last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: I concluded that the game script for this showdown should trend Over -- but the red flag I have struggled is with the strong historical numbers supporting Unders on neutral courts with the Total in the 150s (in the last five years, the Under is 390-290 (59%) in games played on a neutral court with the Total in the 150s). I realized what would convince me is to simply look at the data in the Final Four play in domes. Since 2011, four games were in domes with the Total in that point total range. The Under is 2-1-1 -- but last year's Gonzaga-Baylor game would have gone Over if it was a closer game than the Bears’ 86-70 victory (and I think this will be closer, so more likely to trigger the late free throw circus). There was also an Over with the total at 149.5 with Villanova beating North Carolina in 2016's Championship Game -- and that total opened at 151, so the historical data is real close to a 2-2-1 Over/Under mark. The sample size is way low, of course, but this data does conflict with the historical data I was worried about above. I am seeing a lot of evidence for the Over between these ACC rivals. The Blue Devils have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage at 60% or higher — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total when favored. Furthermore, Duke has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 14 of their last 22 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 150s. North Carolina has played 3 games this season on a neutral court with the Total in the 150s — and all 3 games finished Over the Total. The Tar Heels have played 6 straight Overs against teams with a winning record. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral court as a dog.
FINAL TAKE: North Carolina is scoring 78.1 Points-Per-Game and Duke scores 80.1 PPG. These are two teams whose identity is on offense — they both rank in the top-8 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. And while the Blue Devils are the top-ranked team in that metric in the nation, the Tar Heels rank 10th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in their last ten games. But these two teams rank 45th and 39th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — so I do not see either coach deciding that defensive stops are the key to their success. The average for both the games these teams played this season was 164.5 combined points — so this line asks if this game in the Caesars Superdome will see more than 10 fewer combined points. These two teams have played 6 straight Overs in their last 6 battles — and I expect more of the same. 10* CBB Saturday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina Tar Heels (703) and the Duke Blue Devils (704). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-02-22 |
Villanova v. Kansas UNDER 134 |
Top |
65-81 |
Loss |
-110 |
25 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Final Four game between the Villanova Wildcats (701) and the Kansas Jayhawks (702) in the Final Four round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Villanova (30-7) is on a nine-game winning streak after their 50-44 upset victory against Houston as a 3-point underdog on Saturday. Kansas (32-6) has won nine games in a row after beating Miami (FL) by a 76-50 score as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats will have to play this game without their leader in minutes, Justin Moore. The junior is second on the team with a 14.8 Points-Per-Game scoring average while adding 4.8 Rebounds-Per-Game and 2.9 Assists-Per-Game. Villanova already plays at a snail’s pace — they average 19.9 seconds-per-possession, ranking 349th in the nation, and their games average only 62.6 possessions per game, ranking 345th in the country. Look for head coach Jay Wright to demand his team be even more patient on offense without Moore as a scoring option — they will probably average more than 20 seconds per possession. Wright will want to shorten this game — and then maybe Collin Gillespie and his veteran teammates can steal it late. This was the formula for success against Houston (even with Wright) as they only made 28.8% of their shots — but their defense stymied the Cougars who only made 29.8% of their shots. Villanova has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up victory — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Wildcats rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency -- and that number improves to ranking 9th in the nation when evaluating Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on a neutral court. But in their ten games played on a neutral court, Villanova ranks 25th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency which is fine but -7.7 adjusted points per 100 possessions less than what they generate at home, where they rank 3rd in the nation. Incidentally, the Wildcats see their average possessions drop to a 61.7 average on neutral courts. Villanova has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court. Kansas is playing their best defense of the season after holding the Hurricanes to just 34.5% shooting last weekend. That was the fourth straight game where they did not allow an opponent to make more than 35.6% of their shots from the field. Over their last ten games, the Jayhawks rank 5th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have played 22 of their last 30 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. They have also played 6 straight Unders after not allowing their last three opponents to shoot better than 40% from the field. Kansas thrives when getting out in transition to score baskets — but this will be easier said than done against Villanova. The Wildcats do not turn the ball over to allow for these opportunities — they rank 29th in the nation by turning the ball over just 15.5% of the time. Head coach Jay Wright’s team is also masterful in switches — so they are comfortable defending in transition. Look for the Wildcats to bypass offensive rebounding to get back on defense — not only will that help stifle the Jayhawks' attack, but it will also limit their own second-chance scoring opportunities. Villanova will try to make up the difference with 3-point shooting since they attempt 46.1% of their shots from downtown, ranking 26th in the nation. But Kansas holds their opponents to 29.6% shooting from behind the arc, ranking 17th in the country. By the way, while the Wildcats make 41.3% of their shots from 3-point range at home, ranking 6th in the nation, that proficiency plummets to a 31.9% clip when playing on a neutral court, ranking 183rd in the country — and those numbers include Moore’s contributions who is a 35.6% shooter from distance. The Jayhawks have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and Villanova has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games. The Wildcats have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the Big Dance — and the Jayhawks have played 28 of their last 41 games in the NCAA Tournament Under the Total when favored. 25* CBB Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Final Four game between the Villanova Wildcats (701) and the Kansas Jayhawks (702). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-29-22 |
Washington State v. Texas A&M UNDER 133.5 |
Top |
56-72 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (649) and the Texas A&M Aggies (640) in the Semifinals of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Washington State (22-14) won their seventh game in their last eight with their 77-58 upset victory at BYU as a 2.5-point underdog last Wednesday in the Quarterfinals of the NIT. Texas A&M (26-12) has won 10 of their last 11 contests with their 67-52 victory against Wake Forest as a 2.5-point favorite in their Quarterfinals match on Wednesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Madison Square Garden in New York City.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cougars made 43.9% of their shots against BYU which was their best shooting mark in their last five games. They are only making 38.3% of their shots in their last five games. Washington State finds success on the other end of the court where they rank 26th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. While BYU made 41.1% of their shots against them last week, that was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. The Cougars have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. The Under is 12-4-1 in their last 17 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games after a point spread victory. Washington State has 75 and 77 points in their last two contests — but they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. The Cougars cannot shoot — they rank 263rd in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 48.1% while ranking 313th in the country by making only 46.2% of their shots inside the arc. Furthermore, they have played 16 of their last 18 games Under the Total when playing for just the second time in seven days — and they have played 7 straight Unders when playing for no more than the second time in the last eight days. Additionally, Washington State has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Texas A&M ranks 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have held their last four opponents to no better than 39.3% shooting after the Demon Deacons only made 34.0% of their shots against them last week. The Aggies have not allowed more than 65 points in six straight games — and their last two opponents in this tournament have not topped 60 points. Texas A&M has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in two straight games. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a double-digit win at home. This play on defense has helped the Aggies play four straight Unders. They have then played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight Unders. Texas A&M wants to get their offense in transition by forcing turnovers — they rank eighth in the nation by triggering turnovers in 23.9% of their opponent’s possessions. But this is going to be tough against this Cougars team that only turns the ball in 16.4% of their possessions, ranking 50th in the nation. The Aggies can get bogged down in the half-court with their offense. They only make 32.7% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 231st in the nation — and they only made 29.0% of their 3-pointers in the SEC.
FINAL TAKE: Texas A&M has played 4 straight Unders when the favorite. Washington State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CBB NIT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (649) and the Texas A&M Aggies (640). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-15-22 |
Indiana v. Wyoming UNDER 133.5 |
Top |
66-58 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 9:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the First Four NCAA Tournament game between the Indiana Hoosiers (665) and the Wyoming Cowboys (666). THE SITUATION: Indiana (20-13) won their first two games in the Big Ten Conference Tournament before losing to Iowa by an 80-77 score as a 5.5-point underdog on Saturday. Wyoming (25-8) comes off a 68-61 loss to Boise State as a 3-point underdog in the Mountain West Conference Tournament on Friday. This game will be played on a neutral court at the UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hoosiers made 47.6% of their shots in their last-second heartbreaking loss to the Hawkeyes. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by three points or less. First-year head coach Mike Woodson has his alma-mater playing outstanding half-court defense. Indiana led the Big Ten in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and that rank 24th in the nation in that metric. It starts from their interior defense as are seventh in the country by holding their opponents to just 43.4% shooting inside the arc. Woodson has two outstanding defensive players inside in the 6’9 Trayce Jackson-Davis and the 6’8 Race Thompson — and they will present problems against the Cowboys’ offense. The “Post Up Pokes” run their offense inside-out with Hunter Maldonado and Graham Ike capable of scoring when posting up but happy to pass to an open teammate if they are double-teamed. This is a game where Woodson’s chops as a long-time NBA head coach will help with a few defensive maneuvers to disrupt the flow of the Wyoming attack. Indiana dealt with several injuries during the regular season so their numbers do not adequately represent the team playing on the floor tonight. The Hoosiers’ defensive presence improved for the Big Ten tournament with the return of Trey Galloway and Rob Phinisee — and Jordan Geronimo is expected to be available after getting injured in the Big Ten Tournament. But the Indiana offense is not dynamic as it relies on not turning the ball over and getting to the free-throw line to reach their 71.5 Points-Per-Game mark. They only pull down 27.0% of their missed shots, ranking 213th in the nation and they force turnovers in 17.5% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 229th in the country. They only make 44.6% of their shots away from Bloomington, so if their shots are not falling, the offense can stagnate. But Indiana holds their opponents to just 39.1% shooting which translates into 65.9 PPG to keep them competitive. Wyoming made 42.6% of their shots against the Broncos in a losing effort — and that was the best shooting effort in their last five games. That contest finished above the 128.5 point total — and the Cowboys have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after playing an Over in their last game. Wyoming is making only 38.4% of their shots in their last five games which is resulting in just 62.2 PPG. While the Cowboys rank 17th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, that ranking plummets to 124th in the nation when they are playing on the road. They make only 42.9% of their shots away from home which results in 67.0 PPG which is -6.0 PPG below their season average. But the Pokes’ defense does tighten up when away from Laramie. Wyoming’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency is 162dn in the nation when playing at home — but they improve to 43rd in the country in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They hold their opponents to 40.7% shooting and 65.7 PPG away from home. The Cowboys defend the perimeter well as they hold their opponents to just 30.3% shooting from behind the arc, ranking 32nd in the nation. Their offensive profile is like Indiana in that they bypass creating extra scoring opportunities — and their offensive identity is predicated on protecting the basketball and getting to the free-throw line. Wyoming thrives with their inside scoring as they make 52.5% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 32nd in the nation — but they may not have played a team with a better interior defense this season than what they will face against this Hoosiers team.
FINAL TAKE: This shapes up to a slow-paced rock fight. Wyoming has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog on a neutral court. Indiana has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 4 straight Unders when favored on a neutral court. 25* CBB First Four NCAA Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the First Four NCAA Tournament game between the Indiana Hoosiers (665) and the Wyoming Cowboys (666). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-12-22 |
Texas A&M Corpus Christi v. Southeastern Louisiana OVER 145 |
|
73-65 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Texas A&M Corpus Christi Islanders (306007) and the Southeast Louisiana Lions (306008) in the Championship Game of the Southland Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Texas A&M Corpus Christi (22-11) won their third straight game in a 71-64 victory against Nicholls State as a 6-point underdog in the semifinals of this tournament yesterday. Southeast Louisiana (19-13) has won four in a row with their 74-65 victory as a 1.5-point favorite yesterday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Merrell Center in Katy, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Islanders advanced to play for the right to earn the Southland Conference’s automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament despite making only 42.4% of their shots, the lowest in their last four games. They are still making 47.0% of their shots in their last five games. The Over is 20-7-1 in Texas A&M Corpus Christi’s last 28 games after a straight-up win. And while they have won six of their last seven games, they have then played 16 of their last 20 road games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. The Islanders have played 22 of their last 34 games Over the Total against conference opponents. They have also played 25 of their last 35 games Over the Total when an underdog — and the Over is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games Over the Total when an underdog on a neutral court. Southeast Louisiana held New Orleans to just 40.3% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 30 games. The Lions allow their conference opponents to make 47.0% of their shots which generates 80.1 Points-Per-Game — and they are scoring 82.6 PPG with a 48.6% of their shots in the conference. Southeast Louisiana has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Lions have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing with one or zero days between games — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total when playing their second game in three days. Southeast Louisiana has played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total in conference play — and they have played 4 straight Overs against teams winning at least 60% of their games. And in their last 13 games when favored, the Lions have played 10 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two regular-season contests after Southeast Louisiana beat the Islanders by an 83-74 score on February 17th. Texas A&M Corpus Christi has played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 75 points. 10* CBB Saturday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Texas A&M Corpus Christi Islanders (306007) and the Southeast Louisiana Lions (306008). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-09-22 |
Georgetown v. Seton Hall UNDER 142.5 |
Top |
53-57 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 21 m |
Show
|
At (now) 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Georgetown Hoyas (673) and the Seton Hall (674) in the first round of the Big East Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Georgetown (6-24) limps into the Big East Tournament on a 20-game losing streak after their 97-75 loss at Xavier as a 13-point underdog on Saturday. Seton Hall (20-9) has won five games in a row with their 65-60 upset win at Creighton as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Madison Square Garden in New York City.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Patrick Ewing’s first priority for the Hoyas in this tournament is to tighten things up on defense after they allowed the Pirates to make 54.7% of their shots. That was the second-highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last seven games. Georgetown has played 4 straight Unders after allowing at least 90 points in their last game. The Hoyas have also played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a loss on the road to a conference rival — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss on the road. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing a game where at least 165 combined points were scored. The problems against Xavier started early as they went into halftime with a 54-30 deficit. Georgetown has played 8 straight Unders after trailing by at least 15 points at half-time of their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least 45 points in the first half in their last game. While the Hoyas should play better on defense, they still cannot shoot the basketball. Georgetown ranks 319th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 46.5%. They make only 43.7% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 346th in the country. Their shooting is even worse away from home where they rank 328th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 44.7%. The Hoyas make only 41.1% of their shots inside the arc on the road, ranking 357th in the nation — and their road 2-point shooting in the conference was even worse with a 40.9% mark. The Hoyas have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. Seton Hall has held their last five opponents to 39.4% shooting which has resulted in those foes scoring only 63.6 Points-Per-Game. They rank 28th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are second in the Big East in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. The Pirates have played two straight Unders — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders in a row. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Seton Hall only makes 40.5% of their shots on the road which generates 70.8 PPG which is -3.4 PPG below their season average. The Pirates have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the number set in the 140s. Additionally, Seton Hall has played 27 of their last 37 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when favored on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: The Pirates swept the Hoyas this season after beating them by a 73-68 score on March 2nd. Georgetown has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with double-revenge. 25* CBB Big East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Georgetown Hoyas (673) and the Seton Hall (674). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-08-22 |
Canisius v. Fairfield UNDER 133 |
|
50-72 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Canisius Golden Griffins (609) and the Fairfield Stags (610) in the first round of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Association. THE SITUATION: Canisius (11-20) has won three games in a row with their 67-64 win against Siena as a 2-point favorite on Saturday. Fairfield (14-17) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 57-41 loss at Saint Peter’s as a 6.5-point underdog on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Boardwalk Hall in New Jersey.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Golden Griffins allowed the Saints to make 52.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 15 games. Canisius has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They go on the road where they are making just 38.3% of their shots away from home. The Golden Griffins have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. The Under is also 13-5-1 in their last 19 games as an underdog. Fairfield only made 25.9% of their shots on Saturday in what was the worst shooting effort of their season. They are only hitting 37.6% of their shots in their last five games which is resulting in only 57.8 Points-Per-Game. The Stags have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Toal after scoring no more than 50 points in their last game. Additionally, the Under is a decisive 41-19-1 in Fairfield’s last 61 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. Moving forward, the Stags have played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Fairfield swept the two regular-season meetings between these two teams after an 80-76 win on February 14th. The Stags have played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total when favored on a neutral court. Canisius has played 18 of their last 23 games Under the Total played on a neutral court. 10* CBB Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Canisius Golden Griffins (609) and the Fairfield Stags (610). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-05-22 |
George Washington v. Fordham UNDER 135 |
Top |
66-70 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the George Washington Colonials (635) and the Fordham Rams (636). THE SITUATION: George Washington (12-16) had their two-game losing streak snapped with a 98-93 victory in triple overtime as a 7-point favorite on Wednesday. Fordham (13-15) has lost two of their last three games with their 81-73 loss at Massachusetts as a 4-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colonials' three-overtime game earlier this week was tied at 59 after regulation — so that contest was going way Under the 137 point total. George Washington made 47.9% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. They have just the ninth-best offense in the Atlantic 10 Conference in terms of Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they drop to 12th in the conference in that metric when playing on the road. GW has played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road after losing two of their last three games. Additionally, the Colonials have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 90 points in their last game — and the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games after allowing at least 90 points in their last contest. George Washington has the 12th worst defense in the Atlantic 10 in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — but they do improve to seventh best in that statistic when playing on the road in conference play. The Colonials have played 22 of their last 28 games Under the Total on the road — and the Under is 20-6-1 in their last 27 road games against teams with a winning record at home. George Washington has also played 6 straight Unders on the road with the Total set in the 135-139.5 point range. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Fordham allowed UMass to make 47.4% of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last five contests. The Rams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 36-16-1 in their last 53 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 27-11-1 in their last 39 games after a point spread loss. Fordham ranks just 13th in the Atlantic 10 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they are fourth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They return home where they hold their opponents to 41.5% shooting which results in only 63.6 Points-Per-Game. The Under is a decisive 42-16-1 in the Rams’ last 59 home games when favored — and they have played 12 of their last 16 home games Under the Total as the favorite. They have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130-134.5 point range. Furthermore, they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Fordham will be looking to avenge a 64-55 loss at George Washington as a 1-point underdog on January 30th. They have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing with revenge — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 60 points. 25* CBB Atlantic 10 Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the George Washington Colonials (635) and the Fordham Rams (636). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-03-22 |
Southern Utah v. Idaho State OVER 140 |
Top |
79-71 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Southern Utah Thunderbirds (773) and the Idaho State Bengals (774). THE SITUATION: Southern Utah (18-10) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 69-53 loss at Montana State as a 3.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Idaho State (7-21) has lost three of their last four games with their 73-69 loss at Portland State in overtime as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This game between two subpar defensive teams should be higher-scoring tonight. The Thunderbirds have the fourth-best defense in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the Big Sky Conference — but they rank 232nd in that metric nationally. Southern Utah has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after playing a game where no more than 125 combined points were scored — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after failing to score more than 55 points in their last game. The Over is also 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with just one day of rest. They are making a healthy 47.4% of their shots in their last five games — but they have allowed their last five opponents to shoot 48.9% from the field. They stay on the road where they are scoring 75.1 PPG while allowing 75.6 PPG. They have played 8 of their last 11 road games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games when favored. The Thunderbirds have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140-144.5 point range. The Over is also 26-10-1 in their last 37 games when favored. Idaho State ranks 324th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They managed to hold Portland State to just 15 first-half points on Saturday — but they have then played 16 of their last 22 home games Over the Total after not allowing more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. Additionally, the Bengals have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Idaho State has played four straight Overs — and they have played 23 of their last 34 games Over the Total after playing an Over in their last game. They have also played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after playing at least three Overs in a row. Now after playing those last three games on the road, they return home rehear they see their scoring average rise +6.1 Points-Per-Game to a 70.7 PPG mark. The Bengals have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total — and they have played 17 of their last 21 home games Over the Total after playing their last three games on the road. Idaho State has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with the number set in the 140s.
FINAL TAKE: Southern Utah won the first meeting between these two teams by an 86-74 score as a 16.5-point favorite on January 22n. Idaho State has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from an earlier loss this season to their opponent. 25* CBB Big Sky Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Southern Utah Thunderbirds (773) and the Idaho State Bengals (774). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-02-22 |
NC State v. Wake Forest OVER 150.5 |
Top |
76-101 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (717) and the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (718). THE SITUATION: North Carolina State (11-18) has lost two in a row and eight of their last nine games after their 84-74 loss to North Carolina as a 4-point underdog on Saturday. Wake Forest (22-8) has won two of their last three games with their 99-77 win against Louisville as a 9-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Demon Deacons made 58.2% of their shots against the woeful Cardinals which was the best shooting mark in their last 21 games. But I do not consider that an outlier performance as much as it is evidence that this Wake Forest team will expose teams who are vulnerable on the defensive end of the court. The Demon Deacons now shot at least 53.7% from the field in seven of their last twelve games. Expect another higher-scoring game as they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win at home where they scored at least 85 points — and they have played 6 straight Overs at home after a victory at home where both teams scored at least 75 points. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by 20 or more points — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Demon Deacons did allow Louisville to make 50.8% of their shots which was the third time they allowed an opponent to shoot at that clip or higher in their last five games. Wake Forest plays at the fastest pace in the ACC — they average 16.8 seconds per possession. Their opponents play at the second-fastest possession in the conference by averaging 17.4 seconds per possession against them. The 69.9 average possessions per game in conference play leads the ACC as well. And when playing at home, the Demon Deacons play at the 25th fastest pace when looking at adjusted numbers (that eliminate garbage time). Wake Forest is 15-2 at home where they make 49.5% of their shots which generates 83.2 Points-Per-Game. They have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total at home — and they have played 10 of their last 14 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40%. They have also played 17 of their last 21 home games Over the Total when favored by 9.5 to 12 points. NC State only made 37.9% of their shots in their loss to the Tar Heels on Saturday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. But the play of the Wolfpack defense is a bigger concern as the 51.8% shooting clip by North Carolina which was actually the sixth-lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last eight games. NC State ranks 15th in the ACC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 52.9% is the 296th worst mark in the nation. The Wolfpack have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 12 of their last 15 road games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They have played 10 of their last 12 road games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. And while this is their second game since last Wednesday, they have played 14 of their last 21 games Over the Total when playing for just the second time in seven days. They go back on the road where they are 4-8 with an average combined score of 150.0 points due to allowing 76.2 PPG. While the Wolfpack ranks eighth in the ACC in pace, they get lulled into playing faster on the road where they are playing at the fifth-fastest pace in the conference. NC State has played 35 of their last 51 road games Over the Total — and they have played 14 of their last 18 road games Over the Total in conference play. They have also played 17 of their last 22 road games Over the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: NC State is losing to avenge a 69-51 loss at home to Wake Forest on February 9th. The Wolfpack have played all 5 of their revenge opportunities this season Over the Total when getting beat by double-digits in their first meeting this season — and both games went Over this season when they were avenging a loss where they did not score at least 60 points. NC State has played 22 of their last 31 games Over the Total as an underdog — and Wake Forest has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total as the favorite. 25* CBB ACC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (717) and the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (718). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-26-22 |
South Carolina v. Alabama OVER 154 |
|
71-90 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the South Carolina Gamecocks (727) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (728). THE SITUATION: South Carolina (17-10) has won four in a row after their 66-56 upset victory against Mississippi State as a 21-point underdog on Wednesday. Alabama (18-10) has won four of their last five games after their 74-72 win at Vanderbilt as a 4.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Gamecocks made only 43.9% of their shots on Wednesday in what was the lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. But they won the game by holding the Bulldogs to just a 35.8% field goal percentage in what was the best defensive effort in their last seven contests. South Carolina has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing a game that did not see more than 125 combined points scored. The Gamecocks have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 11 road games Over the Total after a win against a conference rival. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread win. They go back on the road where they have played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total including their last four Over the Total. The Over is also 15-7-1 in their last 23 road games as an underdog. Additionally, South Carolina has played 5 straight Overs against teams winning at least 60% of their games -- and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total as an underdog. Alabama only made 37.9% of their shots against the Commodores in what was the lowest field goal percentage in their last five games. They did hold Vanderbilt to just 35.8% shooting which was the second-lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 15 contests. That game finished below the 153.5 point total — and the Crimson Tide has played 25 of their last 37 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game including seven of these nine circumstances this season. Alabama has played 11 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up win against a conference rival — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. The Crimson Tide returns home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total when favored by 9.5 to 12 points. Over their last five games, Alabama is scoring 80.0 Points-Per-Game — but they are allowing 77.4 PPG. They have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a high-scoring game between two teams that played at the two fastest paces in the SEC. The Crimson Tide averages only 15.4 seconds per possession which is the ninth-fastest in the country. Alabama has played 8 of their last 12 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 150s — and South Carolina has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total with the number in the 150-159.5 point range. 10* CBB Saturday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the South Carolina Gamecocks (727) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (728). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-24-22 |
Belmont v. Murray State UNDER 146 |
Top |
43-76 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Belmont Bruins (825) and the Murray State Racers (826). THE SITUATION: Belmont (23-5) won their tenth straight game with a 73-62 victory against SIU-Edwardsville as a 22-point favorite on Saturday. Murray State (26-2) won their 15th straight game with a 62-60 victory at Tennessee-Martin as a 17-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Belmont needs to win this game to put themselves in a position to share the Ohio Valley Conference regular-season title. Expected a lower-scoring game between the two best defensive teams in the conference in terms of Adjusted Efficiency. The Bruins have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win at home against a conference rival. Belmont has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Bruins are playing their best basketball of the season — and it has been led by their play on defense. Belmont has held their last five opponents to just 40.4% shooting which has resulted in just 59.2 Points-Per-Game. They go on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Additionally, the Bruins have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140s. Murray State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played a decisive 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Racers have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a straight-up victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. Murray State has not allowed more than 62 points in five straight games while holding their last two opponents to 60 or fewer points. They have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in two straight contests. The Racers are scoring less on offense lately as well. They are shooting 2.9% below their season average in their last five games — and that 45.0% field goal percentage over that span is resulting in -7.3 PPG below their 79.7 PPG scoring average for the season. They return home where they are holding their guests to 38.7% shooting which is resulting in just 63.1 PPG. Murray State has played 8 straight home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played 28 of their last 36 games Under the Total with the Total set in the range overall. The Under is also 16-7-1 in the Racers’ last 24 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against winning teams. Murray State has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Murray State won the first meeting between these two teams back on January 15th by an 82-60 score as a 6-point underdog in Nashville. The Racers got 36 points in Justice Hill in that game who nailed eight shots from behind the arc in that game. Murray State made 51% of their shots in that contest while making 14 of their 25 shots from 3-point range in that game for a 56% clip. They are not likely to do that again tonight since they make only 33.2% of their 3-pointers in conference play — and their 3-point shooting drops to 29.9% at home in Ohio Valley play. Belmont holds their home hosts in conference play to just a 31.1% shooting mark from 3-point range when playing on the road. The Bruins have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total when avenging a same-season loss. 25* CBB Thursday ESPNU Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between Belmont Bruins (825) and the Murray State Racers (826). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-16-22 |
Evansville v. Drake OVER 127.5 |
Top |
51-73 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Evansville Purple Aces (703) and the Drake Bulldogs (704). THE SITUATION: Drake (17-9) is on a three-game losing streak after their 68-59 loss at Bradley as a 1-point underdog on Saturday. Evansville (6-18) has lost two straight and five of their last six games after their 69-62 loss at Southern Illinois as an 11.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs only made 35.7% of their shots on Saturday while missing 10 of their 13 shots from behind the arc in the loss. Drake has played 6 straight Overs after not making more than three shots from behind 3-point range in their last game. The Bulldogs have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after losing three of their last four games. And while they have failed to cover the point spread in three straight games, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not covering the point spread in three straight games. They return home where they are scoring +3.2 Points-Per-Game above their season average of 74.7 PPG. They lead the Missouri Valley Conference by pulling down 31.1% of their shots in conference play on their home court. Drake has played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total at home against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. They have also played 4 straight home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 120s. Additionally, the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. Evansville has played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total on the road after a loss on the road to a conference rival. And while they have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then played 6 straight road games Over the Total after covering the point spread in at least two straight games. This is the Purple Ace’s third game since Thursday — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total when playing their third game in seven days. They stay on the road where they are allowing +5.4 more PPG than their season defensive average with home hosts nailing 49.4% of their shots which is generating 74.2 PPG. Evansville ranks 332nd in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 55.9% away from home with those teams making 38% of their 3-pointers and 55.3% of their shots inside the arc, both those marks rank 316th in the nation. The Over is 6-2-1 in the Purple Aces’ last 9 road games — and they have played 11 of their last 14 road games against teams scoring at least 60% of their games at home. Evansville has also played 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total against winning teams.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of Drake’s narrow 60-59 win at Evansville on January 8th. The Bulldogs have allowed their eight opponents to score at least 66 points — and they have played 6 straight Overs when favored at home by 12.5 to 18 points. Evansville has played 8 of their last 12 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 15.5 to 18 points. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Evansville Purple Aces (703) and the Drake Bulldogs (704). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-12-22 |
CS-Northridge v. CS Bakersfield OVER 126 |
|
71-65 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cal-State Northridge Matadors (815) and the Cal-State Bakersfield Roadrunners (816). THE SITUATION: Cal-State Northridge (6-16) ended an eight-game losing streak with an 83-78 upset win at Cal-Poly SLO in double overtime as a 3.5-point underdog on Thursday. Cal-State Bakersfield (6-12) has lost six games in a row after their 74-62 loss to UC Santa Barbara as a 3-point underdog on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Expect a higher-scoring game between these two teams that have the 10th and 8th ranked defenses in terms of Adjusted Efficiency in the Big West Conference. Cal-State Northridge went into overtime with the Mustangs on Thursday with the score tied at 59-59 — they held Cal-Poly SLO to just 24 points in the first half. The Matadors have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 24 points in the first half of their last game. Cal-State Northridge has also played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a road win against a conference rival. Additionally, the Matadors have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after an upset win against a Big West foe — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. They are playing higher-scoring games of late. Their 68.0 Points-Per-Game scoring average in their last five games is +5.7 PPG above their season average. On defense, they have allowed their last five opponents to make 47.5% of their shots which helps explain why they are allowing +5.1 PPG above their season of 70.9 PPG. They go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total — and they have played 14 of their last 19 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Cal-State Bakersfield only made 36.2% of their shots on Thursday in their loss to Gauchos. The Roadrunners have played 4 straight Overs after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, Cal-State Bakersfield has played 6 straight overs when playing at home after a loss to a conference opponent — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after losing at least two in a row to Big West opponents. They stay at home where they are scoring +6.2 PPG above their 65.4 PPG season average. The Roadrunners have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage no higher than 40% on the road. Cal-State Bakersfield has also played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total with the Total set no higher than 129.5.
FINAL TAKE: Cal-State Northridge has played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total in February — and they have played 4 straight Overs as an underdog. 20* CBB Saturday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Cal-State Northridge Matadors (815) and the Cal-State Bakersfield Roadrunners (816). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-11-22 |
Wright State v. Wisc-Milwaukee OVER 146.5 |
Top |
57-60 |
Loss |
-108 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Wright State Raiders (881) and the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers (882). THE SITUATION: Wright State (15-10) has won four straight games after their 79-62 win at Wisconsin-Green Bay as an 8-point favorite on Wednesday. Wisconsin-Milwaukee (7-18) has lost six in a row after their 75-39 loss to Northern Kentucky as a 2.5-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Panthers shot a season-low 27.3% from the field against the Norse on Wednesday. They should shoot much better tonight as they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after not scoring at least 50 points in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not making more than 33% of their shots in their last game. Additionally, Milwaukee has played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight Overs after a loss by 20 or more points. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They stay at home where they make a modest — but certainly much better than on Wednesday — 44% from the field which is generating 68.7 Points-Per-Game.
|
02-09-22 |
Xavier v. Seton Hall UNDER 141.5 |
Top |
71-73 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Xavier Musketeers (701) and the Seton Hall Pirates (702). THE SITUATION: Xavier (16-6) had their two-game winning streak snapped with their 69-65 upset loss to DePaul as a 13.5-point favorite on Saturday. Seton Hall (14-7) has won two games in a row with their 74-55 victory against Creighton as a 5-point favorite on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pirates shot 49.1% from the field on Friday against the Bluejays in what was the best shooting effort in their last seven games. Seton Hall has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread win. They held Creighton to just 16 points in the first half after Georgetown to only 28 points in the first half in their last game. The Pirates have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 30 points in the first half in two straight games. Head coach Kevin Willard’s team ranks 27th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. In their last five games, they are limiting their opponents to just 37.1% shooting which is resulting in only 67.2 Points-Per-Game — a -8.7 PPG drop from their season defensive average. At home, Seton Hall holds their opponents to just 39.5% shooting which is resulting in just 65.7 PPG. They have played 11 of their last 16 home games Under the Total when favored. They have played 24 of their last 33 games Under the Total overall when the favorite — and they have played 4 straight Unders against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Xavier allowed the Blue Demons to mark 47.5% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six games. The Musketeers have played 22 of their last 31 games on the road Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. Xavier has also played 5 straight Unders after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Musketeers have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while Xavier has only covered the point spread once in their last eight games, they have then played 33 of their last 49 games Under the Total on the road after failing to car the point spread in at least five or six of their last seven games. Xavier has the 43rd best defense in the nation as measured by Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have held their last five opponents to 42.6% shooting which has resulted in only 66.6 PPG — a -6.6 PPG drop from their defensive season average. They go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog. And in their last 4 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games, they have played all 4 games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Xavier has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and Seton Hall has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total with the Total in the 140s. 25* CBB Wednesday FS1-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Xavier Musketeers (701) and the Seton Hall Pirates (702). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-07-22 |
Southern Utah v. Montana OVER 140.5 |
Top |
67-78 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Southern Utah Thunderbirds (905) and the Montana Grizzlies (906). THE SITUATION: Southern Utah (15-6) is on a four-game winning streak after their 84-72 victory against Eastern Washington as a 7-point favorite on Saturday. Montana (15-8) has lost two games in a row after their 86-63 upset loss at Idaho State as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Thunderbirds have the top-rated offense in terms of Adjusted Efficiency in the Big Sky. They have scored at 75 points in eight straight games while reaching at least 81 points in six of those contests. They are scoring 81.2 Points-Per-Game in their last five games. They have played 25 of their last 36 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Southern Utah has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win at home by double-digits. Their triumph against the Eagles was preceded by a 16-point victory against Idaho last Thursday — and the Thunderbirds have played 6 straight Overs after winning their last two games at home by 10 or more points. They have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total when playing their third game in seven days on the road. Now after playing their last three games at home, Southern Utah goes back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing their last three games at home. They are scoring 75.0 PPG on the road — but they are allowing 78.4 PPG in those nine games. The Thunderbirds have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 13 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Furthermore, Southern Utah has played 8 of their last 11 road games with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. Montana has allowed 83.0 PPG in their last two games. They have played 35 of their last 51 games Over the Total after an upset win against a conference rival. They return home where they are a perfect 11-0 while making 48.6% of their shots which is generating 79.0 PPG. The Grizzlies have played 24 of their last 34 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140 to 144.5 point range. They have also played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. Montana will likely give the Thunderbirds plenty of opportunities at the charity stripe tonight — they rank 333rd in the nation in putting their opponents on the free-throw line. Southern Utah is 53rd in the nation in getting to the free-throw line.
FINAL TAKE: Southern Utah has played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Montana has played 14 of their last 19 home games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CBB Big Sky Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Southern Utah Thunderbirds (905) and the Montana Grizzlies (906). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-06-22 |
Minnesota v. Iowa OVER 147.5 |
Top |
59-71 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Golden Gophers (861) and the Iowa Hawkeyes (862). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (11-8) has lost three games in a row after their 88-73 loss to Purdue as an 11-point underdog on Wednesday. Iowa (14-7) has lost three of their last four games after their 90-86 upset loss in double-overtime at Penn State as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Ignore the final combined score in the Hawkeyes’ loss to the Nittany Lions as the game went into overtime tied at a low score of 66-66. Iowa made only 35.1% of their shots in that game, their third-lowest field goal percentage of the season. The Hawkeyes have been cold with their shooting as of late as they have not made more than 40.7% of their shots in four straight games. But styles and opponents make fights — Iowa has played Penn State twice over that span who do everything they can for their games to devolve into rock fights. The other two games Iowa has played were against stout defensive teams in Purdue and Rutgers. The Hawkeyes still score 82.8 Points-Per-Game which is the sixth-highest mark in the nation — and they rank seventh in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. I expect the Regression Gods to make an appearance to help see more of their shots fall. The extended time off will help — Iowa has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing for just the second time in eight days. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. This team wants to play at a fast pace — they rank seventh in the nation by averaging just 15.2 seconds per possession. They return home where they make 47.6% of their shots which helps them generate 88.8 PPG. The Over is 24-9-1 in the Hawkeyes’ last 34 games at home — and they have played 7 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, Iowa has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Over is 16-5-1 in their last 22 games when favored. In theory, Minnesota will want to slow the pace — but, in practice, this will be difficult to accomplish if and when the Hawkeyes take a comfortable lead. The Golden Gophers are last in the Big Ten in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 54.5% is also last in the conference. Minnesota allowed the Boilermakers to make 55.6% of their shots on Wednesday — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total. They go back on the road where they are 5-3 this season — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road. The Golden Gophers have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. Minnesota has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Additionally, the Golden Gophers have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as a double-digit underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Iowa will not have head coach Fran McCaffrey on the sideline today as he is in COVID quarantine but that should have much impact on today’s game (and the players may shoot the ball better without the hothead constantly screaming at them). Minnesota will be looking to avenge an 81-71 loss at home to the Hawkeyes on January 16th. The Gophers have palled 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 75 points including playing five of these six circumstances this season. Minnesota will be sped up in this one by Iowa, who should hold a comfortable lead — and this dynamic should produce our Over. 25* CBB Big Ten Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Golden Gophers (861) and the Iowa Hawkeyes (862). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-05-22 |
George Mason v. La Salle OVER 136.5 |
Top |
78-83 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the George Mason Patriots (651) and the LaSalle Explorers (652). THE SITUATION: George Mason (11-8) had their four-game winning streak snapped in a 92-90 upset loss to Saint Louis as a 1.5-point favorite on Wednesday. LaSalle (6-13) is on a five-game losing streak after their 89-87 loss at George Washington as a 1-point underdog on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Patriots are one of the best shooting teams in the nation. They are top-34 in the country in both 2-point and 3-point shooting — and their effective field goal percentage of 55.2% is 20th best in the nation. They only made 45.6% of their shots on Wednesday in their loss to the Billikens which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games — they had made at least 51% of their shots in their previous three games. George Mason has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Patriots have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after allowing at least 90 points in their last game. Now they go back on the road where their defense does wane a bit. The 73.3 Points-Per-Game they allow away from home is +6.0 PPG above their season average — and they allow their opponents to make 44.3% of their shots on the road as compared to the 41.6% of their shots they allow overall. George Mason has played 28 of their last 38 road games Over the Total — and they have played 15 of their last 16 road games Over the Total with the number in the 130s. Furthermore, the Patriots have played 19 of their last 26 road games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home. LaSalle is just 5-6 at home — and they have played 11 of their last 14 home games Over the Total at home with the Total in the 130s. They rank 10th in the Atlantic 10 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have allowed at least 77 points in their last three games with all three of those contests seeing at least 146 combined points. The Explorers have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 75 points in three straight games. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread loss. And in their last 12 games when they have lost at least three in a row, LaSalle has played 10 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Explorers have played 4 straight Overs against teams with a winning record — and George Mason has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning percentage in the 20-40% range. 25* CBB Atlantic 10 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the George Mason Patriots (651) and the LaSalle Explorers (652). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-03-22 |
North Carolina A&T v. Winthrop OVER 147 |
|
54-64 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina A&T Aggies (306185) and the Winthrop Eagles (306186). THE SITUATION: North Carolina A&T (9-13) has lost three in a row after their 84-64 loss to USC Upstate as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. Winthrop (11-8) has lost two of their last three games with their 92-88 loss at Longwood as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Aggies only made 35.8% of their shots on Saturday against USC Upstate which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. But the troubling defensive play for this NC A&T team continued as they allowed USC Upstate to make 51.9% of their shots. The Aggies are 11th in the Big South in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they have allowed their last five opponents to make 49.8% of their shots which is translating into 77.0 Points-Per-Game. North Carolina A&T should be able to generate some second-chance scoring opportunities. The Aggies lead the Big South by rebounding 36.9% of their shots — and they play an Eagles team that is 10th in the conference by allowing their opponents to pull down 29.7% of their misses. UNC A&T has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Aggies have palled 8 straight Overs after losing three of their last four contests. UNC A&T has played six straight Overs — and they have played 15 of their last 20 road games Over the Total after playing their last game over the Total. The Aggies have also played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. Now they go back on the road where they have played 4 straight Overs — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Winthrop has played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Eagles have scored 95 and 88 points in their last two games — and they have played 7 straight games Over the Total when playing at home after scoring at least 85 points in two straight games. And while Winthrop has seen their last two games see 180 and 186 combined points, the Eagles have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after seeing at least 165 combined points in two straight games. They return home where they are 6-0 at home where they are making 52.1% of their shots which is generating 79.8 Points-Per-Game. Winthrop has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total at home when favored. This Eagles team lead the Big South with an effective field goal percentage of 57.3%.
FINAL TAKE: Winthrop has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total with the number set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. North Carolina A&T has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 20* CBB Thursday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina A&T Aggies (306185) and the Winthrop Eagles (306186). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-02-22 |
Tulane v. Houston UNDER 133.5 |
Top |
62-73 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tulane Green Wave (697) and the Houston Cougars (698). THE SITUATION: Tulane (9-9) has won two straight games after their 67-66 upset win at Wichita State as a 2-point underdog on Saturday. Houston (18-2) has won ten games in a row after their 63-49 win at Central Florida as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cougars rank 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They are trending down in their offensive attack as of late. They are making just 43.5% of their shots in their last five games which is generating 71.6 Points-Per-Game — both marks down from their 46.5% shooting percentage for the season which is resulting in 76.9 PPG. Houston has not reached 80 points in five straight games. They have played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Under is also 10-4-1 in their last 15 games after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. They return home where they are 11-0 this season while limiting their opponents to just 33.3% shooting which is resulting in just 52.3 PPG. Houston has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 13 of their last 19 home games Under the Total against teams not winning more than 40% of their games on the road. Tulane has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Green Wave have also played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after an upset win. And while Tulane has covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least two straight games. They stay on the road where they only make 42.9% of their shots. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 9 of their last 12 road games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home.
FINAL TAKE: Tulane has played 4 straight games Under the Total as an underdog — and Under is 7-3-1 in Houston’s last 11 games when favored. 25* CBB American Athletic Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tulane Green Wave (697) and the Houston Cougars (698). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-31-22 |
West Virginia v. Baylor OVER 138.5 |
Top |
77-81 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the West Virginia Mountaineers (895) and the Baylor Bears (896). THE SITUATION: West Virginia (13-7) has lost five games in a row after their 77-68 loss at Arkansas as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday. Baylor (18-3) had their three-game winning streak snapped in an 87-78 loss at Alabama as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bears should be in a feisty mood after losing for just the second time in the Big 12/SEC Challenge on Saturday. Baylor has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Bears have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total when playing their second game in the last three days. They return home where they are making 49.0% of their shots which is translating into 81.8 Points-Per-Game. Baylor has played 17 of their last 25 games Over the Total when playing at home — and they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. The Bears should dominate the offensive glass in this game against Bob Huggins’ team that allows their opponents to rebound 33.9% of their missed shots, ranking 343rd in the nation. Baylor is fifth in the country by rebounding 37.5% of their missed shots — and that mark improves to 38.6% when they are playing at home. The Over is 25-12-1 in the Bears’ last 38 games when they are favored — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. West Virginia has played 5 straight Overs after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread loss. And while the Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in four straight contests, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in at least three games in a row. West Virginia is struggling on the defensive end of the court — they are last in the Big 12 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and it is because of their half-court defense as they are last in the conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 42.4%. They have allowed their last five opponents to make 47.0% of their shots which is translating into 77.8 PPG. But the Mountaineers do have success in generating extra scoring chances by forcing turnovers in 24.0% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 15th in the nation. West Virginia can generate scoring transitions against this Bears team who turn the ball over in 19.2% of their possessions, ranking 205th in the nation. The Mountaineers forced 13 turnovers at a 19.1% rate against Baylor in their first meeting two weeks ago. Now West Virginia goes back on the road where they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, the Mountaineers have played 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. West Virginia has also played 20 of their last 25 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s.
FINAL TAKE: Baylor won the first meetings between these two teams in Morgantown by a 77-68 score as a 4.5-point favorite on January 18th. The Mountaineers have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total when avenging a loss at home. 25* CBB Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the West Virginia Mountaineers (895) and the Baylor Bears (896). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-26-22 |
Albany v. UMass Lowell UNDER 131.5 |
Top |
64-62 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Albany Great Danes (1147) and the UMass-Lowell River Hawks (1148). THE SITUATION: Albany (7-11) had their three-game winning streak snapped with an 86-75 loss to Stony Brook as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday. UMass-Lowell (9-8) has lost two of their last three games after their 67-61 loss at New Hampshire as a 3-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Great Danes allowed Stony Brook to make 55.8% of their shots on Saturday in what was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. And Albany’s meager 44.8% field goal percentage in that game was actually the best shooting effort in their last five contests. The Great Danes have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. They have also played 6 straight Unders after a point spread loss. They go back on the road where they are making only 40.7% of their shots which is generating only 60.3 Points-Per-Game. Albany has played 37 of their last 53 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 26 road games as an underdog, the Great Danes have played 19 of these games Under the Total. Albany is playing tough on the other end of the court. They have held their last five opponents to 41.0% shooting which is resulting in only 61.4 PPG. They have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams winning no more than 40% of their games. UMass-Lowell allowed New Hampshire to make 46.4% of their shots which was the second-highest opponent field goal percentage in their last 11 games. They have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while the River Hawks have not scored more than 29 points in the first half in six straight games, they have then played 13 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 30 points in the first half of at least two straight games. They are making just 41.3% of their shots in their last five games which is resulting in just 63.4 PPG. They return home where they are holding their opponents to just 37.6% shooting which is resulting in 61.2 PPG. UMass-Lowell has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when at home and favored. The River Hawks have also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams not winning more than 40% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: Albany and UMass-Lowell rank 332nd and 308th respectively in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. These two make only 29.3% and 27.7% of their shots from behind the arc — ranking 304th and 339th in the country. In their first meeting on January 12th, they combined to make only 7 of their 31 shots from behind the arc for a 22.6% combined clip in a game that the Great Danes won by a 57-47 score as a 2-point underdog. The River Hawks have played 6 straight Unders when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 25* CBB America East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Albany Great Danes (1147) and the UMass-Lowell River Hawks (1148). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-25-22 |
Auburn v. Missouri OVER 141 |
|
55-54 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (649) and the Missouri Tigers (650). THE SITUATION: Auburn (18-1) won their 15th straight game with their 80-71 win against Kentucky as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Missouri (8-10) has lost three of their last four games after their 86-76 loss at Alabama as an 18-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This is a solid technical play point to a higher-scoring game than expected. Auburn has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win in conference play. Auburn has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Auburn has registered at least 80 points in six straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight games where they scored 80 or more points. Head coach Bruce Pearl’s team is 13th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. On the road, they are scoring 81.4 Points-Per-Game on 46.4% shooting. In their last five games, Auburn is nailing 49.5% of their shots. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against SEC opponents. Missouri demonstrated some concerning signs on offense on Saturday by making 9 of their 24 shots (37.5%) from behind the arc. They are making 48.1% of their shots in their last five games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread win. But head coach Cuonzo Martin’s team ranks 13th in the SEC on Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Missouri returns home where they have played 19 of their last 28 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. Missouri has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total at home as an underdog. They have also played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total with the number set in the 140s.
FINAL TAKE: Missouri has played 7 straight Overs against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total as a double-digit underdog. Auburn has played 4 straight Overs against teams with a losing record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when favored. 10* CBB Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (649) and the Missouri Tigers (650). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-18-22 |
Air Force v. Boise State UNDER 120.5 |
Top |
56-62 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Air Force (653) and Boise State (654). THE SITUATION: Air Force (8-6) has lost two in a row and five of their last six games after their 75-68 loss to Nevada as an 8-point underdog on Saturday. Boise State (12-4) has won nine games in a row with their 71-63 win at New Mexico as an 8.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos have one of the best defenses in the nation. They rank 15th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at KenPom — and they have held their last five opponents to just 39.7% shooting which has translated into just 59.4 Points-Per-Game. But head coach Leon Rice will want a better effort from his team on defense after they allowed New Mexico to make 49.5% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they have given up all season. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a victory where they failed to cover the point spread as a favorite. Boise State is also an excellent rebounding team. They have held their last three opponents to no more than 29 rebounds — and they have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not giving up more than 31 boards in three straight games. They held the Lobos to just three offensive rebounds on Saturday — and they have then played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total after not allowing more than five offensive rebounds in their last contest. The Broncos rank sixth in the nation by limiting their opponents to pull down just 21.2% of their missed shots. Air Force is simply not going to get many second-chance scoring opportunities tonight — they only rebound 18.8% of their missed shots, ranking 353rd in the nation. But Boise State is a bad shooting team themselves. They make only 60.3% of their shots at the charity stripe, ranking 355th in the nation. They only nail 32.5% of their 3-pointers, ranking 216th in the country. The Broncos have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing at home with the Total in the 120s. Air Force has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Falcons made only 38.2% of their shots in that game. They have made just 39.3% of their shots in their last five games which has resulted in just 53.4 PPG. They go back on the road where they score only 56.9 PPG on 43.6% shooting. Air Force has played 4 straight games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 straight road games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 7 straight road games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their home games. The Falcons have played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Air Force has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog. Boise State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as a double-digit favorite. 25* CBB Tuesday CBS Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between Air Force (653) and Boise State (654). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-12-22 |
Southern Illinois v. Missouri State UNDER 131.5 |
Top |
76-81 |
Loss |
-108 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Southern Illinois Salukis (725) and the Missouri State Bears (726). THE SITUATION: Southern Illinois (9-5) has won four of their last five games after their 63-60 upset win at Valparaiso as an 11.5-point underdog on Saturday. Missouri State (11-6) and their three-game winning streak end with an 85-84 upset loss at Northern Iowa as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is a strong technical situation for the Under. The Salukis have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Southern Illinois nailed 55.6% of their shots from the field in that game — but they are still only making 43.1% of their shots on the road. The Salukis score just 59.7 Points-Per-Game on the road — but they allow only 62.7 PPG in those eight games. Southern Illinois has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as an underdog. The Salukis have also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Missouri State has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Bears have also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. Missouri State allowed the Panthers to make 51.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. The Bears are second in the Missouri Valley Conference so far this season by holding their conference opponents to just 50.0% shooting inside the arc after four games. They return home where they have played 10 of their last 16 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 130s.
FINAL TAKE: Southern Illinois has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 straight Unders against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Missouri State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against winning teams. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Southern Illinois Salukis (725) and the Missouri State Bears (726). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-05-22 |
Nebraska v. Michigan State OVER 148.5 |
Top |
67-79 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Nebraska Cornhuskers (681) and the Michigan State Spartans (682). THE SITUATION: Nebraska (6-8) has lost six of their last seven games after their 87-79 loss in overtime against Ohio State as a 9.5-point underdog on Sunday. Michigan State (12-2) won their seventh straight game with a 73-67 win at Northwestern as a 3-point favorite on January 2nd.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cornhuskers have allowed at least 70 points in nine of their fourteen games this season — and they play at the 9th fastest possession length in the nation so they are comfortable playing higher-scoring games under head coach Fred Hoiberg. Nebraska has played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. The Cornhuskers are one of the worst rebounding teams in the nation although much of that is by design since Hoiberg wants to sacrifice defensive rebounding for potential fast break scoring chances. They have been out-rebounded by at least eight boards per game in their last three contests — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after being out-rebounded by at least six boards in three straight games. They rank 302nd in the nation by allowing their opponents to pull down 32.5% of their misses on the offensive — and now they travel to East Lansing to face a Spartans’ team that is 47th in the nation by rebounding 33.8% of their missed shots. Nebraska has allowed their last five opponents to make 46.6% of their shots which has resulted in 85.8 Points-Per-Game. Now the Cornhuskers go back on the road where they are allowing 90.3 PPG. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Nebraska has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total with the Total in the 140s. Michigan State has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread victory. The Spartans held Northwestern to just 32.3% shooting from the field which was the best defensive effort in their last 11 games. But Michigan State only made 38.5% of their shots against the Wildcats which was the lowest mark in their last eight games and the second-lowest field goal percentage all season. Even after that shooting effort, the Spartans have shot 48.6% from the field in their last five games. They rank 15th in the nation by making 38.9% of their shots from behind the arc — and they are making 40% of their 3-pointers in their three Big Ten games. They should make plenty of 3s against this Cornhuskers defense that ranks 281st in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 35.0% of their 3-pointers — and they are allowing their Big Ten foes to nail 44.3% of their shots from downtown. Five-star freshman Max Christie is finding a rhythm having scored in double-digits in four of his last six games. And head coach Tom Izzo has found an answer at point guard by splitting time between Tyson Walker and A.J. Hoggard. They return home to the Breslin Center where they are scoring 81.3 PPG on 47.0% shooting. The Over is 3-0-1 in the Spartans’ last 4 games at home — and they have played 4 straight Overs at home against teams with a losing record on the road. The Over is also 5-1-1 in their last 7 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams score at least 75 PPG. Michigan State has played 9 of their last 14 home games Over the Total when favored by at least 12.5 points. Nebraska has played 30 of their last 45 road games — and 10 of their last 15 road games — Over the Total when an underdog in the 12.5 to 18 point range. 25* CBB Big Ten Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Nebraska Cornhuskers (681) and the Michigan State Spartans (682). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-26-21 |
San Francisco v. UAB UNDER 141.5 |
Top |
63-61 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Dons (883) and the UAB Blazers (884) in the Finals of the Las Vegas Invitational. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (7-0) won their opening round game in this holiday tournament with a 71-61 victory as a 13-point favorite last night. UAB (5-1) comes off an 86-73 victory against New Mexico as an 11-point favorite last night in this event. This tournament is being played on a neutral court at the Orleans Arena.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Dons have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. San Francisco has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning at least two in a row. San Francisco is tough on the defensive glass — they rank 11th in the nation by limiting their opponents to pulling down only 20% of their missed shots. Head coach Bob McKillop has his team play tough defense as they have held their last five opponents to just 40.2% shooting which is resulting in only 62.6 Points-Per-Game. The Dons have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games. UAB has played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. After losing at South Carolina, the Blazers have won and covered the point spread in two straight games. UAB has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row — and they have played 10 straight Unders after covering the point spread in their last two games. And while the Blazers have scored 86 points in each of their last two games after being held to 63 points in their loss to the Gamecocks, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in two straight games. They are averaging 86.7 PPG on 48.7% shooting this season — but in their two games away from home, that productivity drops to 74.5 PPG on 42.1% shooting. UAB has held their last five opponents to 62.4 PPG on 41.1% shooting. They are 31st in the nation by holding their opponents to just 42.3% shooting inside the arc — and the Dons have been living inside with a 61.8% shooting mark for their 2-point shots which is fourth-best in the nation.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 6-1-1 in the Blazers’ last 8 games as an underdog — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total on a neutral court as a dog getting up to three points. San Francisco is scoring 79.9 PPG — but this is just their second game away from home after scoring 71 points last night in Vegas. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on a neutral court when favored or a pick ‘em. 25* CBB Las Vegas Invitational Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco Dons (883) and the UAB Blazers (884). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-05-21 |
Baylor v. Gonzaga OVER 159 |
|
86-70 |
Loss |
-100 |
11 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baylor Bears (811) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (812). THE SITUATION: Baylor (27-2) has won five straight games as well as nine of their last ten contests after their 78-59 win against Houston as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. Gonzaga (31-0) survived overtime in a 93-90 buzzer-beating win against UCLA as a 14-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bears have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Baylor tends to play higher-scoring games because they emphasize shot volume. They are sixth in the nation by pulling down 36.9% of their missed shots. They are also third in the nation by forcing turnovers in 24.6% of their opponent’s possessions. But as they demonstrated against the stout Cougars defense that went into the Final Four with the nation’s top statistical defense in terms of effective field goal percentage, Baylor makes their shots more often than not. The Bears shot 52.7% from the field against Houston — including making 11 of 24 (45.8%) from behind the arc. Baylor leads the nation by making 41.2% of their 3-pointers. Now they play a Gonzaga team much worse than the Cougars’ statistically in half-court defense. The Bulldogs allowed the Bruins to make 57.6% of their shots — and the Zags have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots. Gonzaga ranks only 55th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 47.5%. The Bears have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. They have also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total on a neutral court. And in their last 27 games as an underdog, Baylor has played 20 of these games Over the Total. Gonzaga has played 37 of their last 55 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. The Zags have also played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. The Bulldogs have also played 28 of their last 43 games Over the Total after scoring at least 85 points in their last contest. Gonzaga has scored at least 83 points in six straight games. The Zags lead the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 61.1%. Baylor does not play elite-level half-court defense either — they rank 113th nationally with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 48.7% while ranking outside the top-100 in both 2-point and 3-point shooting defense. The Bulldogs want to play fast under head coach Mark Few. They average just 14.3 seconds-per-possession which is the third quickest in the nation. Baylor is likely to be quite comfortable racing with the Zags as well with their four guards in the starting lineup. The Bears forego defensive rebounding for getting out in transition in fast breaks. Baylor allows their opponents to pull down 30.9% of their missed shots, ranking 280th in the nation. This means more second-chance scoring opportunities for Gonzaga who pull down a respectable 30.4% of their missed shots. This also means the Bears attempting to score fast in the 70% or so times they pull down the missed shot. This game should be up-and-down the court. The Bulldogs have played 25 of their last 36 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have played 39 of their last 57 games Over the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams are familiar with Lucas Oil Stadium after playing there in the Final Four. Baylor should enter this game very confident after shooting 52.7% from the field while nailing 11 of 24 from downtown. And while Gonzaga made 58.7% of their shots on Saturday, I expect them to shoot better from behind the arc than their 7 of 21 effort against UCLA. I was less aggressive with Under plays during this Big Dance (unfortunately, in hindsight) because I assessed that teams would shoot better without big crowds in the arenas. The limited crowd will have little impact on the game tonight — I expect both these high-scoring teams to shoot well in this familiar environment. 10* CBB Monday Night Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Baylor Bears (811) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (812). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-03-21 |
UCLA v. Gonzaga UNDER 146.5 |
|
90-93 |
Loss |
-104 |
5 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 8:34 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Gonzaga Bulldogs (804) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (803). THE SITUATION: UCLA (22-9) won their fifth straight game in this Big Dance with their 51-49 upset win against Michigan as a 6.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Gonzaga (30-0) reached the Final Four on Tuesday with their 85-66 win against USC as a 12-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bruins have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. And while UCLA has covered the points spread in all five of their NCAA Tournament games, they have then played 28 of their last 41 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four straight games. Head coach Mick Cronin is going to do everything he can to keep this game in the 60s. His formula for success to pull upsets against Alabama and Michigan was to slow the games down and have his team take their chances in the final ten minutes of the second half. The Bruins have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. And while the Bulldogs are outscoring their opponents by +23.1 PPG, Gonzaga has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams who outscore their opponents by at least +8.0 PPG. The Bulldogs have won all four of their games in this Big Dance by at least 16 points — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning three in a row by at least 15 points. And while Gonzaga has scored at least 83 points in five straight games, they have then played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in four straight contests.
FINAL TAKE: Gonzaga has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament — UCLA has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the Big Dance. Even if the Bulldogs have a comfortable lead in the second half, head coach Mark Few will want to conserve the energy of his players for the National Championship Game on Monday. 10* CBB UCLA-Gonzaga CBS-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Gonzaga Bulldogs (804) minus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (803). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-03-21 |
Houston v. Baylor UNDER 136 |
Top |
59-78 |
Loss |
-113 |
9 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 5:14 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (801) and the Baylor Bears (802). THE SITUATION: Houston (28-3) won their 11th straight game on Monday with their 67-61 win against Oregon State as an 8-point favorite. Baylor (26-2) won their fourth straight game with their 81-72 victory against Arkansas as a 7.5-point favorite on Monday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cougars allowed the Beavers to make 46.8% of their shots on Monday which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games. Houston has still held their last five opponents — all teams either in or made the NCAA Tournament — to just 36.3% shooting which has translated into 55.4 PPG. The Cougars 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Houston has not allowed more than 61 points in five straight games — and they have played 36 of their last 57 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in at least two straight games. Head coach Kelvin Sampson will have his team play outstanding half-court defense. They lead the nation in opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 43.3%. The Cougars hold their opponents to just 29.2% shooting from behind the arc and 42.9% inside the arc — those marks rank 11th and fifth in the nation. But shooting could be an issue for Sampson. They only made 32.3% of their shots against Oregon State — and they have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after not shooting better than 33% from the field. While Houston enjoyed a 17-point lead early in the second half, they only made 29% of their shots. Now the Cougars will be playing the best defense they have encountered all season. The best team Houston has played all season is Texas Tech — and they only rank 20th nationally by metrics guru Ken Pomeroy. The Cougars have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. Baylor made 48.4% of their shots against the Razorbacks which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. They raced out to a 46-28 lead in the first half on Tuesday — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after scoring at least 45 points in the first half of their last game. The Bears did allow Arkansas to make 48.1% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last seven contests. Scott Drew’s team had struggled with their defense after a three-week hiatus due to a COVID outbreak — but they have been in top form again in the Big Dance. Baylor held their three previous NCAA Tournament teams to just 41.3% shooting and 56.3 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Sampson will likely play this game at a very slow pace — as it is, Houston averages 19.3 seconds-per-possession which is the 331st slowest pace in the nation. Baylor was lulled into a low-scoring game with Villanova — in their 62-51 win over the Wildcats in the Sweet 16, there were only 57 possessions in that game. The Under is 13-6-1 in the Cougars’ last 20 games on a neutral court — and they have played 4 straight Unders when an underdog on a neutral court. 25* CBB Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (801) and the Baylor Bears (802). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-30-21 |
UCLA v. Michigan UNDER 137 |
|
51-49 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 9:57 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (659) and the Michigan Wolverines (660). THE SITUATION: UCLA (21-9) won their fourth game in this Big Dance with their 88-78 win in overtime against Alabama as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. Michigan (23-4) has won four of their last five games after their 76-58 win against Florida State as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Lucas Oil Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bruins have covered the point spread in all four of their Big Dance games — and they have then played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total after they covered the point spread in four straight games. Their Sweet 16 game finished Over the Total only because of overtime — the score was tied at 65 at the end of regulation — and they have played 19 of their last 29 games Under the Total after playing their last game Over the Total. There were times in their game with the Crimson Tide where they were stagnant on offense. They got back in the game when Alabama started taking them for granted. My “eye test” thinks Michigan will be a bit more disciplined with their half-court defense in stifling the UCLA attack. Now they play a Michigan team that has an opponent’s field goal percentage of 39.3% — and the Bruins have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a defensive field goal percentage of 42%. The Wolverines make 48.5% of their shots including a 38.3% mark from behind the arc — and not only has UCLA played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams who are making at least 45% of their shots, but they have also played 4 straight Unders against teams who make at least 37% of their 3-pointers. Michigan has played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 27 of their last 38 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Wolverines have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. Michigan has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 9-4-1 in the Wolverines’ last 14 games in the NCAA Tournament — and UCLA has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the Big Dance. 10* CBB Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (659) and the Michigan Wolverines (660). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-30-21 |
USC v. Gonzaga OVER 153 |
|
66-85 |
Loss |
-102 |
3 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 7:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the USC Trojans (657) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (658). THE SITUATION: USC (25-7) has won six of their last seven games after their 82-68 win against Oregon as a 2-point favorite on Sunday. Gonzaga (29-0) remained undefeated this season with their 83-65 win against Creighton as a 12.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: What convinced me that this situation was worthy of a 10* investment on the Over is when confirming Gonzaga’s effectiveness against zone defenses. Andy Enfield is likely to deploy the funky zone they have used at key times in this Big Dance. Yet the Zags average 1.313 Points-Per-Possession against zone defenses which is the second-highest mark. The top PPP against zone defenses is Cal-Baptist. USC played Cal-Baptist to open the season — they won 95-87 in overtime. Most importantly, the score was 79-79 after regulation — so that combined score was right around our number (and I have higher expectations for Gonzaga tonight). The Bulldogs are a juggernaut on offense who leads the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency while averaging 91.8 PPG — and they are third in the nation in pace. They are averaging 89.3 PPG in the Big Dance. They have covered the point spread in all three of their NCAA Tournament games — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three straight games. And while the Zags have scored at least 83 points in four straight games, they have played 27 of their last 39 games Over the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last two games. Gonzaga has also played 7 straight games Over the Total when playing their second game in three days. The Bulldogs are not elite in half-court defense either — their opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 47.2% is a solid 47th in the nation, but not impenetrable when talking about the final eight teams in the nation. USC has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a double-digit win over a Pac-12 opponent — the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after a point spread win. The Trojans have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. USC is red-hot with their shooting as well — they have shot at least 50% from the field in four straight games. They “dropped” to a 48.3% shooting percentage five games ago — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after making at least 47% of their shots in five straight games.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 3-1-1 in the Trojans’ last 5 games on a neutral court. Gonzaga has played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 24 of their last 34 games Over the Total when playing teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. 10* CBB USC-Gonzaga TBS-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the USC Trojans (657) and the Gonzaga Bulldogs (658). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-28-21 |
Louisiana Tech v. Colorado State UNDER 144.5 |
Top |
76-74 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (649) and the Colorado State Rams (650). THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (23-8) lost in the Semifinals of the National Invitational Tournament in an 84-62 upset loss to Mississippi State as a 1.5-point favorite yesterday. Colorado State (20-7) lost to Memphis yesterday by a 90-67 score as a 4.5-point underdog. This third-place consolation game is being played on a neutral court at Comerica Park in Frisco, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs allowed the Mississippi State Bulldogs to make 55.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 26 games. That mark was far above their opponent’s field goal percentage of 40.2% for the season. Louisiana Tech has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. While Louisiana Tech ranks 77th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they improve to ranking 30th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when on the road. However, the Bulldogs rank just 219th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the road as compared to their 96th rank in that metric when at home. The Under is 8-1-2 in Louisiana Tech’s last 11 games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. Colorado State allowed Memphis to make 55.7% of their shots yesterday which was the worst defensive performance in their last 19 games. They caught a red-hot Memphis team who could not miss in the second half yesterday (one of the reasons I passed on the Tigers today). The Rams have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. Additionally, Colorado State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. While the Rams rank 67th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they fall to 112th in offense when playing on the road. Colorado State has played 40 of their last 59 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. The Rams have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when favored on a neutral court. Louisiana Tech has played 6 of their last 8 games on a neutral court Under the Total when an underdog. 25* CBB NIT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (649) and the Colorado State Rams (650). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-27-21 |
Villanova v. Baylor OVER 140 |
Top |
51-62 |
Loss |
-113 |
9 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 5:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Villanova Wildcats (621) and the Baylor Bears (622). THE SITUATION: Villanova (18-6) advanced to the Sweet 16 with their 84-61 win against North Texas as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. Baylor (24-2) has won six of their last seven games with their 76-63 victory against Wisconsin as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats were hot from behind the arc against the Mean Green — they nailed 15 of their 30 shots from 3-point land. We had Villanova in both their NCAA Tournament games last week with the belief that Jay Wright would push the right buttons to keep his offense clicking even after the season-ending injury to senior point guard Collin Gillespie. Wright has responded by running the offense through 6’9 forward Jeremiah Robinson-Earl who has averaged 20.0 PPG with 8.5 Rebounds-Per-Game in this tournament. The Wildcats have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, Villanova has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Wildcats are going to launch 3s as they play the role of spoiler — a rare role for this program under Wright. Villanova is 27th in the nation by attempting 45.1% of their shots from behind the arc. Wright will likely think his formula for success is to out-shoot the Bears since his team ranks 221st nationally with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 51.2%. Villanova allows their opponents to make 34.9% of their 3-pointers, ranking 238th in the nation — and that is an ominous number when facing this Baylor team that leads the nation by converting 41.2% of their 3-pointers. The Wildcats’ defense worsens when playing on the road — while they rank 65th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, they plummet to 122nd in that metric on the road. Baylor has played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have 6 straight games Over the Total after a point spread win. But the play of Scott Drew’s defense remains a concern. The three-week COVID pause in February stunted the development of his team’s play on that end of the court. Since February 1st, the Bears rank 111th in Adjusted Net Defense which is a big drop-off from their 41st ranking overall this season in that metric. After not allowing more than 69 points in all eight of their Big 12 games before February 2nd, Baylor has surrendered at least 70 points in their next five conference games (and six of seven heading into the NCAA Tournament). The numbers have been better against Hartford and Wisconsin in the Big Dance, but that might speak more about those teams than the quality of the Bears’ defensive play. But Baylor will keep scoring — while five of their last ten opponents have shot at least 47.5% from the field, they have made at least 50.8% of their shots in five of those ten games. The Bears average 84.2 PPG behind an offense that ranks third nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. Baylor has played 12 of the last 14 games Over the Total as a favorite — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: The Bears have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total in Big Dance — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total in the NCAA Tournament as a favorite. Villanova has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on a neutral court. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Villanova Wildcats (621) and the Baylor Bears (622). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-25-21 |
Louisiana Tech v. Western Kentucky UNDER 137 |
Top |
72-65 |
Push |
0 |
4 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (617) and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (618). THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (22-7) has won seven of their last eight games after their 70-61 upset victory against Mississippi as a 3-point underdog last Friday. Western Kentucky (21-7) has won four of their last five games after their 69-67 upset victory against Saint Mary’s as a 2-point underdog last Wednesday. This NIT Quarterfinals game will be played on a neutral court at Comerica Park in Frisco, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs reached the Quarterfinals with their win against Ole Miss despite allowing them to make 40.7% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six games. Louisiana Tech has held their last five opponents to just 38.4% shooting along with 61.6 PPG which is -2.9 PPG below their season average. They have allowed 61 and 54 points in the last two games — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in two straight games. The Under is 5-2-1 in the Bulldogs’ last 8 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a point spread victory. And while that game finished above the 129.5 point total, Louisiana Tech has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The home/road splits are striking for this team. While they rank 93rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing at home, they plummet to 236th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road. And while they rank 77th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency at home, they skyrocket to ninth-best in defense when playing on the road. The Bulldogs have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total against Conference USA opponents — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog. The Under is also 5-0-1 in their last 6 games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. Western Kentucky outlasted the Gaels despite allowing them to make 48% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 17 games. The Hilltoppers have still held their last five opponents to 40.5% shooting which has resulted in just 62.4 PPG in their last five games which are -5.5 PPG below their season average. They are scoring only 66.0 PPG in these previous five games which are -7.0 PPG below their season average — a 41.4% shooting mark explains the decline. Western Kentucky have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Hilltoppers have also palled 16 of their last 23 road games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 23 of their last 32 road games Under the Total after a narrow win by three points or less. Additionally, Western Kentucky has played 21 of their last 29 road games Under the Total against conference foes — and they have 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on a neutral court. The Hilltoppers have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: Western Kentucky is looking to avenge a 63-58 loss at home to the Bulldogs on January 9th — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* CBB NIT Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (617) and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (618). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-22-21 |
Maryland v. Alabama UNDER 139.5 |
Top |
77-96 |
Loss |
-111 |
7 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 8:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (831) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (832). THE SITUATION: Maryland (17-13) has won two of their last three games after their 63-54 win against UConn as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. Alabama (25-6) has won seven in a row with their 68-55 victory against Iona as a 17-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Bankers Fieldhouse.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Maryland Unders have been very for us over the last few weeks when the Terrapins have away from College Park. They offer the valuable combination of being undervalued on defense when playing on the road while being overvalued on offense. While Maryland ranked just 94th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they jump to eighth-best in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They have held their last five opponents to just 63.2 PPG on 39.1% shooting even after Michigan torched them at a 51.7% clip in the Big Ten tournament. They rank 10th best in the nation in their last ten games in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency overall which is an improvement over their 23rd ranking in that metric for the season. But head coach Mark Turgeon sees a decline in the offensive effectiveness of his team when playing on the road. At home, the Terrapins are 20th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they fall to 83rd in the nation in that metric on the road. They score 62.2 PPG on the road on 42.7% shooting which is -6.4 PPG below their season average. This foundation does not make us zombies to Maryland Unders moving forward — the circumstances warrant the play. The Terrapins continued to play tough defense by holding the Huskies on Saturday to just 32.3% shooting — that was the eleventh time this season they held an opponent under 60 points. But Maryland overachieved on offense by nailing 51.2% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last nine games. They are due for some regression on that front. The Terrapins have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total when playing their second game in eight days. Alabama made 47.2% of their shots in their win against the Gaels which was the best shooting effort in their last three games. The Crimson Tide have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Even better, Nate Oats’ team shares the same identity as Maryland in that they play better defense but sees their offensive efficiency decline when playing on the road. Alabama is 15th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home — but they are third in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road. But while the Tide are 32nd nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they fall to 60th nationally in that metric on the road where they make only 41.8% of their shots. The Crimson Tide’s defense is trending in the right direction after holding Iona to just 39.0 shooting. Alabama’s last five opponents are averaging 65.8 PPG on 39.4% shooting from the field.
FINAL TAKE: Maryland has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total on a neutral court as an underdog. The Terrapins have also played 5 of their last 6 games in the NCAA Tournament Under the Total. Alabama has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on a neutral court. The Tide have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the Big Dance. 25* CBB TNT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (831) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (832). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-21-21 |
Texas Tech v. Arkansas UNDER 140.5 |
|
66-68 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 6:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (805) and the Arkansas Razorbacks (806). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (18-10) has won four of their last six games after their 65-53 win against Utah State as a 4.5-point favorite on Friday. Arkansas (23-6) has won ten of their last eleven games with their 85-68 win against Colgate as an 8.5-point favorite on Friday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Arkansas plays at the 35th fastest tempo in the country when they have the basketball. And their full-court press helps them create a frantic pace to the pace game. But that will not likely have much success against this Red Raiders team that is 40th in the nation by turning the ball over in just 16.1% of their possessions — and that mark dropped to 15.6% in the Big 12. The Under also offers a strong technical play. Texas Tech has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Red Raiders have played 5 straight games Under the Total when favored. Additionally, Texas Tech has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored in the NCAA Tournament. Arkansas has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. The Razorbacks rank 11th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 3-1-1 in the Red Raiders’ last 5 games played on a neutral court — and they have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total on a neutral court when favored. Arkansas has played 22 of their last 30 games Under the Total on a neutral court as an underdog — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total on a neutral court as an underdog. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament 2nd Round Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (805) and the Arkansas Razorbacks (806). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-21-21 |
Syracuse v. West Virginia OVER 147 |
|
75-72 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 5:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Syracuse Orange (813) and the West Virginia Mountaineers (814). THE SITUATION: Syracuse (17-9) has won four of their last five games after their 78-62 win against San Diego State as a 3-point underdog on Friday. West Virginia (19-9) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 84-67 win against Morehead State as a 13-point favorite on Friday. This game will be played on a neutral court at Bankers Fieldhouse.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Syracuse have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread win. They held the Aztecs to just 35.8% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last three games. If you turn the sound on your TV on, all you hear from the CBS-TV basketball pundits is about how tough the Jim Boeheim 2-3 zone is — and then bettors take the Under. Would it surprise you that the Orange have played 11 of their last 12 games Over the Total on a neutral court … even with their 2-3 matchup zone? Syracuse has also played 21 of their last 27 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as a dog on a neutral court. Syracuse’s defense is not nearly as good when playing from the Carrier Dome either. While they rank 41st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they fall to 189th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on the road -- and these teams are averaging 76.4 PPG. But the Orange offense improves on the road as well. While Syracuse ranks 60th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they rise to 14th in that metric on the road. West Virginia has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a point spread win. This is one of head coach Bob Huggins’ better offensive teams in Morgantown — they rank 13th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the road. But this is not one of his elite defensive teams. West Virginia has allowed their last three opponents to make 49.0% of their shots which has generated 77.0 PPG. The Mountaineers are scoring 79.6 PPG over that span. West Virginia has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total as a favorite — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total in the NCAA Tournament when favored. Huggins’ teams have played 4 straight games Over the Total in the Big Dance overall. And in their last 19 games with the over/under in the 140s, the Mountaineers have played 15 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Over is 19-6-1 in West Virginia’s last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Syracuse has played 22 of their last 29 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 20* CBB Syracuse-West Virginia CBS-TV O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Syracuse Orange (813) and the West Virginia Mountaineers (814). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-20-21 |
Maryland v. Connecticut UNDER 130 |
Top |
63-54 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (791) and the Connecticut Huskies (792). THE SITUATION: Maryland (16-13) has lost three of their last four games after their 79-66 win against Michigan as a 5.5-point underdog last Friday. UConn (15-7) had their five-game winning streak snapped on Friday in a 59-56 upset loss to Creighton as a 2.5-point favorite last Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Mackay Arena in West Lafayette.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Maryland allowed the Wolverines to make 51.7 % of their shots in what was the worst defensive effort in their last 14 games. The Terrapins were second in the Big Ten by allowing only 65.0 PPG on 40.9% shooting — so they should play better on that end of the court tonight. Maryland has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 25 of their last 36 games Under the Total on the road after a double-digit loss to a Big Ten opponent. The Terrapins have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. While Maryland ranked just 95th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they jump to ninth-best in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They have held their last five opponents to just 63.4 PPG on 39.5% shooting even after what Michigan did to them. They rank 14th best in the nation in their last ten games in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency overall which is an improvement over their 25th ranking in that metric for the season. But head coach Mark Turgeon sees a decline in the offensive effectiveness of his team when playing on the road. At home, the Terrapins are 20th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they fall to 96th in the nation in that metric on the road. They score 62.1 PPG on the road on 42.1% shooting which is -6.7 PPG below their season average. Maryland has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. UConn had played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss by three points or less. And while the Huskies had covered five games in a row before their upset loss to the Bluejays, they have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. UConn led the Big East by allowing only 64.6 PPG — and they held ten opponents to under 60 points. They have held their last five opponents to 39.9% shooting. And while they ranked 90th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they improve to 5th best in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. But UConn only makes 40% of their shots on the road which results in 67.7 PPG which is -4.8 PPG below their season average.
FINAL TAKE: Maryland has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total on a neutral court as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament. UConn has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on a neutral court — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games in the Big Dance Under the Total. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament First Round Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (791) and the Connecticut Huskies (792). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-18-21 |
UCLA v. Michigan State UNDER 135.5 |
Top |
86-80 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 9:57 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (717) and the Michigan State Spartans (718). THE SITUATION: UCLA (17-9) has lost four games in a row after their 83-79 loss in overtime to Oregon State as a 5-point favorite in the quarterfinals of the Pac-12 tournament on March 11th. Michigan State (15-12) has lost two of their last three games after their 68-57 loss to Maryland as a 2-point underdog in the second round of the Big Ten tournament on March 11th. This play-in game for the 11-seed in the west region. This game is being played on a neutral court at Mackay Arena in West Lafayette, Indiana.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I expect this game to be a slog between two head coaches who prefer slow, grinding games at the core of their coaching DNA. The Bruins held the Beavers to 42.9% shooting in their overtime loss last week. They have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss. They have also played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total when playing with five or six days of rest. And while the Total was at 133 in their loss to Oregon State, UCLA has played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after playing an Over in their last game. Head coach Mick Cronin lost a piece on offense with Jalen Hill not playing in this tournament for personal reasons. He only scores 6.1 PPG but he crashes the offensive glass for the Bruins. Their leading scorer, Johnny Juzang, has not been at 100% after missing the USC game and playing only 24 minutes against the Beavers. UCLA has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. Michigan State (15-12) has played 7 straight games Under the Total after playing a game that did not see more than 125 combined points scored. The Spartans have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while Michigan State has played six straight Unders under head coach Tom Izzo, they have then played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. The Spartans really miss Cassius Winston from last year. They lack a quality point guard this season — and they do not have a player that can create his own shot. Izzo eventually moved Rocket Watts away from point guard responsibilities — but he only made 29.9% of this shots in Big Ten play with a 23.1% clip from behind the arc so the problems with this team were deeper than Watts playing out of position. UCLA forces their opponents to play at the 318th longest mark per possession which is not a good sign for Sparty that struggles to create shots. Michigan State is scoring only 59.8 PPG with a 38.6% shooting percentage in their last five games. But the Spartans did see their scoring defense improve by more than 4 PPG in these last five games as they have held those opponents to 66.4 PPG. The Spartans do have the length with their guards to present problems for Bruins’ point guard Tyger Campbell. Michigan State has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games. The Spartans have also played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And the Over is 12-3-1 in their last 16 games played on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: Michigan State has played 4 straight NCAA Tournament games Under the Total in the Izzo era. UCLA has played 4 of their last 5 games in the Big Dance Under the Total. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament First Four Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (717) and the Michigan State Spartans (718). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-13-21 |
New Mexico State v. Grand Canyon UNDER 126.5 |
Top |
56-74 |
Loss |
-117 |
0 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Mexico State Aggies (629) and the Grand Canyon Antelopes (630) in the championship game in the Western Athletic Conference. THE SITUATION: New Mexico State (12-7) has won seven of their last eight games after their 78-62 win against Utah Valley State as a 6-point favorite last night. Grand Canyon (16-6) has won three of their last four games with their 81-47 win against Seattle as a 6.5-point favorite last night. The WAC tournament is being played at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: New Mexico State has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while the Aggies have covered the point spread in their last two games as a favorite, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread when laying the points in two straight games. New Mexico State is improving on defense last in the season after holding the Wolverines to just 29.8% shooting last night. They have held their last five opponents to just 37.7% shooting which is limiting these foes to only 59.2 PPG. The Aggies have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total with the number set no higher than 129.5. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Grand Canyon made 50% of their shots last night which was tied for the best shooting effort in their last six games. The Antelopes have played 7 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Grand Canyon is also playing their best defense of the season in March after holding Seattle to just 28.3% shooting. They have held their last five opponents to just 37.8% shooting which has produced only 60.8 PPG. The Antelopes have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing just their second game in seven days. Grand Canyon has also played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 5 games played on a neutral court, the Antelopes have played 4 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Grand Canyon swept the two games in the regular season — and New Mexico State has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Western Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New Mexico State Aggies (629) and the Grand Canyon Antelopes (630). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-12-21 |
North Texas v. Louisiana Tech UNDER 127.5 |
Top |
54-48 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the North Texas Mean Green (837) and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (838) in the Semifinals of the Conference USA tournament. THE SITUATION: North Texas (15-9) won their second game in a row along with their sixth in their last nine contests with their 61-55 win against Old Dominion as a 4-point favorite last night. Louisiana Tech (21-6) has won six in a row with their 75-69 win against FAU as a 7-point favorite yesterday. The Conference USA tournament is being played at the Ford Center at The Star in Frisco, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We had the Mean Green Under last night with one of the reasons being how much better they play defense on the road. While North Texas ranks 76th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they improve to 58th nationally in that metric when playing on the road. The Mean Green allowed the Monarchs to make 44.2% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last three games. North Texas are sharpshooters — at least when playing at home. They rank 12th nationally with an effective field goal percentage of 59.1% when playing at home. But UNT plummets to 79th nationally when playing away from home with an effective field goal percentage of 51.6%. They only made 38.2% of their shots last night. In their last five games, they are averring only 64.2 PPG while making 43.8% of their shots — a drop off of more than six PPG from their season average where they are making 48.2% of their shots. The Mean Green have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, North Texas has played 33 of their last 47 games Under the Total after a win on the road by six points or less. And in their last 12 road games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game, the Mean Green have played 9 of these games Under the Total. North Texas has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Louisiana Tech has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while last night’s game finished Over the 138 point total, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Bulldogs have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing their second game in three days. Louisiana Tech ranks 37th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — but they improve to 24th nationally in that metric on the road. But while they rank 91st nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, that mark plummets to 240th when on the road. The Bulldogs have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Louisiana Tech will be looking to avenge a 57-55 loss to the Mean Green in Denton on February 6th. The Bulldogs have played 5 straight Unders when playing with revenge — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* CBB CBS Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the North Texas Mean Green (837) and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (838). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-11-21 |
North Texas v. Old Dominion UNDER 128 |
Top |
61-55 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the North Texas Mean Green (759) and the Old Dominion Monarchs (760) in the Quarterfinals of the Conference USA tournament. THE SITUATION: North Texas (14-9) defeated Middle Tennessee last night, 76-56, as a 15.5-point favorite in their opening game of this tournament. Old Dominion (15-7) had their four-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in a 60-57 loss at Western Kentucky as a 7-point underdog. The Conference USA tournament is being played at the Ford Center at The Star in Frisco, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We had the Mean Green last night with one of the reasons being how much better they play defense on the road. While North Texas ranks 76th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home, they improve to 57th nationally in that metric when playing on the road. The Mean Green held the Blue Raiders to just a 34.0% field goal percentage last night. North Texas has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games on the road Under the Total after a win by at least 15 points. And in their last 11 games on the road after not allowing more than 60 points, the Mean Green have played 9 of these games Under the Total. North Texas plays excellent half-court defense. They rank 27th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 46.4% — and by holding their opponents to just 44.9% shooting inside the arc, they rank 21st in the nation. The Mean Green are also sharpshooters — at least when playing at home. They rank 12th nationally with an effective field goal percentage of 59.1% when playing at home. But UNT plummets to 71st nationally when playing away from home with an effective field goal percentage of 52.0%. They made 54.5% of their shots last night which is the best shooting mark in their last four games — yet it is due for regression tonight. North Texas has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better. Old Dominion has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Monarchs only made 38.9% of their shots but that continued a disturbing trend for them when playing away from home. Old Dominion ranks 138th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home — but they drop to 236th in that metric on the road. But simultaneously, their defense improves when playing away from home where they rank 121st in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency as compared to their 164th ranking when playing at home. And in their last five games, the Monarchs have held their opponents to just 61.6 PPG on 37.8% shooting.
FINAL TAKE: Old Dominion has played 40 of their last 52 games on a neutral court Under the Total — including 10 of their last 11 games in tournament action. They have also played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total on a neutral court as an underdog. North Texas has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when favored — and the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games on a neutral court when favored. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the North Texas Mean Green (759) and the Old Dominion Monarchs (760). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-11-21 |
Niagara v. Marist UNDER 124.5 |
Top |
67-62 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Niagara Purple Eagles (751) and the Marist Foxes (752) in the Quarterfinals of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Niagara (80-10) takes the court again for the first time since February 21st when they had their two-game winning streak snapped at home to Siena by a 66-61 score as a 5-point underdog. Marist (12-8) won their third in a row on March 1st in a 65-52 win against Quinnipiac as a 2-point favorite. The Metro Atlantic tournament is being played at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Look for the Purple Eagles to be rusty in facing live competition for the first time in almost three weeks. As it is, they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing with at least seven days of rest between games. They allowed Siena to make 50% of their shots the last time out so tightening up on defense will be a priority. Niagara has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 16 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a loss to a conference rival including six of those eight situations this season. The Purple Eagles struggle to shoot the basketball away from home. While they rank third in the conference and 166th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, they fall to sixth in the conference and 280th nationally in that metric when playing on the road. They have an effective field goal percentage of 42.9%, ranking 335th in the nation, when playing in true road games or on neutral courts. And they choose to get back on defense rather than crash the glass — they are 287th in the nation by rebounding only 22.7% of their missed shots on the road. They average only 59.7 PPG away from home with a 37.5% field goal percentage. They do hold teams to just a 42.4% shooting percentage on the road. While ranking 285th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, that mark does improve to 235th in the nation when playing on the road. Niagara has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court as a pick ‘em or favorite of up to three points. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the Total set at 129.5 or lower. And in their last 5 games against tams with a winning record, the Under is 3-1-1. Marist has played 4 of their last 5 games under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Foxes can play some defense — they are 18th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.8%, ranking 18th in the nation. They allow 64.4 PPG when playing away from home on 39.7% shooting. Marist has played 4 straight Unders when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total on a neutral court as an underdog. But while the Foxes rank sixth in their conference and 276th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, they fall to 321st in the nation and tenth in the MAAC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Over their last five games, they are scoring only 59.2 PPG on 39.7% shooting — but they are allowing just 58.2 PPG on 34.6% shooting from the field. Marist has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total with the Total set at 129.5 or lower. They have also played 4 straight games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Niagara won the last meeting between these two teams on January 2nd by an 86-76 score — and Marist has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge including three of their four opportunities this season. 25* CBB Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Niagara Purple Eagles (751) and the Marist Foxes (752). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-10-21 |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff v. Jackson State UNDER 126.5 |
Top |
62-74 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions (307101) and the Jackson State Tigers (307102) in the Quarterfinals of the Southwest Athletic Conference tournament. THE SITUATION: Arkansas-Pine Bluff (4-20) snapped a twelve-game losing streak last Friday in an 82-59 win at Mississippi Valley State as a 10.5-point favorite. Jackson State (11-5) has won eleven in a row with their 79-54 win against Alabama State as a 13.5-point favorite on Saturday. The SWAC tournament is being played at Bartow Arena in Birmingham, Alabama.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Golden Lions nailed 53.3% of their shots last Friday in what was the best shooting effort in their last 13 games. Yet Arkansas-Pine Bluff is just 333rd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They rank 345th nationally by making just 41.9% of the shots inside the arc. The Golden Lions have played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. And while their victory on Friday finished Over the 138 point total, they have then played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing an Over. Arkansas-Pine Bluff has the top Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the SWAC while ranking 258th nationally in that metric. But when playing away from home, they plummet to eighth in the SWAC and 331st nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They make only 39.6% of their shots inside the road away from home, ranking 345th while averaging just 58.9 PPG on 37.0% shooting. But, their defensive performances have been better on the road where they rank 8th in the SWAC and 333th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — not great numbers but better than their 10th ranking in the conference and 343rd mark nationally when at home. The Golden Lions have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court with the total set at 129.5 or lower. They have also played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games. Jackson State made 54.5% of their shots last Saturday in what was their best shooting performance of the season. The Tigers have played 39 of their last 56 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a victory against a conference rival. Jackson State has also played 23 of their last 31 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. I was pleasantly surprised to discover upon my deep dive that the Tigers have the second-lowest effective field goal percentage of 43.3% in the nation. They also limit their opponents to just 42.4% shooting inside the arc, ranking fourth in the nation, so it is going to be very difficult for the Golden Lions to score easy baskets. Jackson State has held their last five opponents to just 52.0 PPG on 38.2% shooting — and they have not allowed even 60 points in six straight games. The Golden Lions have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in two straight games. But scoring is the problem for this team as they rank 342nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They score only 60.1 PPG on the road on 38.5% shooting. They have played 24 of their last 31 games Under the Total as a favorite — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Jackson State has also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: Jackson State swept the two regular-season games this season — defeating Arkansas-Pine Bluff by a 64-58 score on March 1st after beating them 63-55 on February 1st. The Golden Lions have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with double-revenge. 25* CBB SWAC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions (307101) and the Jackson State Tigers (307102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-09-21 |
Mt. St. Mary's v. Bryant UNDER 133.5 |
Top |
73-68 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (1017) and the Bryant Bulldogs (1018). THE SITUATION: Mount St. Mary’s (11-10) advanced to the finals of the Northeast Conference Tournament Championship Game with their 66-60 upset win at Wagner as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday. Bryant (15-5) reached the championship game with an 85-55 win against Sacred Heart as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mountaineers made 47.8% of their shots on Saturday — but they have just a 42.7% shooting percentage on the road which generates 63.0 PPG. Mount St. Mary’s is much better on the offensive end of the court when playing at home where they rank 237th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and fifth in conference action. When playing away from home in true road games (not including neutral courts), their adjusted offensive efficiency plummets to 305th nationally and ninth in Northeast Conference play. Yet the Mountaineers tighten up on defense when playing on an opponent’s home court — they rank 127th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency on the road which is a bit better than their 133rd ranking in that metric when playing at home. The team trends validate this observation. Mount St. Mary’s has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 11 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. The Mountaineers have also played 19 of their last 25 road games Under the Total in the 130s. Mount St. Mary’s has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have covered the point spread in their last three games while not allowing more than 65 points in those contests. The Mountaineers have then played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least two straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in three straight games. They hold their conference opponents to 60.9 PPG on 39.3% shooting. Bryant made a season-high 63.6% of their shots on Saturday in the win — but not only have they played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 85 points in their last game. The Bulldogs also played their best defensive game of the season in terms of the opponent’s field goal percentage but that is an effort that is more likely to carry over tonight. Bryant has held their last five opponents to just 37.9% shooting which is resulting in just 62.6 PPG — as compared to their 74.9 PPG and 41.0% opponent’s marks for the season. The Bulldogs’ defense has improved but we are still getting value with the number. Bryant has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Bulldogs have also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a home win against conference rival — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They host this game where they rank 124 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency as compared to playing on the road where their adjusted defensive efficiency drops to 196th in the nation. But get this: Bryant’s adjusted offensive efficiency is 159th at home but improves to 99th nationally on the road. This is a team that plays better defense but worse offense on their home court. The team trends bear this out as well. They have played 25 of their last 33 games Under the Total including six of their eight home games this season. They have also played 20 of their last 26 home games Under the Total as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: I am extra cautious before investing in games from lower-tier conferences — but we have good sample sizes in March (even with COVID cancellations) and the evidence far exceeds my minimum expectations for this situation (after doing the deep dive work as this Report hopefully demonstrates). A final touch: Bryant has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the number in the 130s while Mount St. Mary’s has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total with the over/under in the 130 to 139.5 point range. 25* CBB Northeast Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (1017) and the Bryant Bulldogs (1018). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-08-21 |
Oral Roberts v. South Dakota State OVER 161.5 |
Top |
90-88 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 6:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (645) and the South Dakota State Jackrabbits (646). THE SITUATION: Oral Roberts (14-10) has won three in a row after their 76-65 win against North Dakota as a 7.5-point favorite yesterday. South Dakota State (16-6) has also won three in a row with their 84-71 victory against Nebraska-Omaha. This game is being played at Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls in a semi-home game for the Jackrabbits given the proximity to their campus.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Golden Eagles made only 44.8% of their shots yesterday which was tied for the lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. Oral Roberts has played 40 of their last 51 games Over the Total after a point spread win. And while that game finished below the 154 point total, they have then played 17 of their last 23 games Over the Total after playing an Under. This is the Golden Eagles’ second game since last Sunday — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing their second game in a week. They are scoring 84.0 PPG in their last five games — and their combined scores in their last five games are +4.1 points above their season average. Additionally, Oral Roberts has played 35 of their last 51 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. They also have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral court as a dog. South Dakota State made 53.4% of their shots on Saturday which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last four games. They have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. This is the Jackrabbits’ second game since last Saturday — not only have they played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing their second game in three days but they have played 7 straight games Over the Total when playing their second game in three days. They are making 57.1% of their shots over their last five games — but they are allowing their last five opponents to make 47.1% of their shots which is a few notches above their 43.1% defensive field goal percentage. They have scored at least 84 points in their last two games — and they have then played 26 of their last 39 games on the road after scoring at least 80 points in two straight games. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. The Jackrabbits have also played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 5 of their 7 games Over the Total when favored on a neutral court.
FINAL TAKE: Oral Roberts will be looking to avenge a 95-80 loss to South Dakota State on February 14th — and they have played 13 of their last 21 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 25* CBB Summit League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles (645) and the South Dakota State Jackrabbits (646). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-06-21 |
Indiana State v. Loyola-Chicago UNDER 122 |
Top |
49-65 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 1:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana State Sycamores (689) and the Loyola-Illinois Ramblers (690) in the Semifinals of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. THE SITUATION: Indiana State (15-9) advanced to the Semifinals of the MVC tournament yesterday with their 53-43 win against Evansville as a 6.5-point favorite. Loyola-Illinois (22-4) won their fourth in a row yesterday with a 73-49 win against Southern Illinois as a 17-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ramblers scored more than 65 points for the first time since February 13th yesterday — it had been five straight games since they had topped that threshold. They made 47.4% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. But Loyola-Illinois is still making only 41.1% of their shots over their last five games which is generating just 60.4 PPG over that span. They have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, the Ramblers have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 50 points in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing their second game in three days on the road. Loyola is an elite defensive team that has the best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home in true road games or on neutral courts — they are allowing 57.3 PPG on 40.1% shooting in those 13 games. They have not allowed more than 58 points in 16 straight games — and they have then played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in three straight games. The Ramblers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as a favorite. Indiana State made 40.4% of their shots yesterday which was the best shooting mark in their last three games. The Sycamores have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Additionally, Indiana State has played 7 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with no more than one day between games. They have held their last five opponents to 59.8 PPG. The Sycamores are 71st in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they improve to 63rd when playing away from home. But while they rank 187th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, they fall to 217th in their true road games or games played on a neutral court. Indiana State has played 14 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams play at a slow pace — the Sycamores average 68.1 possessions-per-game away from home while the Ramblers average 65.8 possessions (319th nationally) away from home. The local Noon PM ET tip won’t help the shooting. And while Indiana State will be looking to avenge a 58-48 loss at home to Loyola on January 11th, they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indiana State Sycamores (689) and the Loyola-Illinois Ramblers (690). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-03-21 |
Maryland v. Northwestern UNDER 131.5 |
Top |
55-60 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (691) and the Northwestern Wildcats (692). THE SITUATION: Maryland (15-10) has won five games in a row with their 73-55 win against Michigan State as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Northwestern (7-14) snapped a 13-game losing streak last Thursday with a 67-59 upset win at Minnesota as a 5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Terrapins made 48.8% of their shots against Sparty which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. Maryland has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win against a Big Ten foe. The final score finished below the 134 total — and the Terrapins have played 29 of their last 43 games Under the Total after playing their last game Under the Total. This is Maryland’s second game since February 21st — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing their second game in eight or more days. Head coach Mark Turgeon has his team sacrifice offense rebounds of getting back on defense — they rank 323rd in the nation by pulling down only 21.5% of their missed shots. The Terrapins have rebounded only three and six boards in each of their last two games — and they have then played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after not rebounding more than nine offensive rebounds in two straight games. Maryland now goes back on the road where they have striking home/road splits. When playing at home, the Terrapins rank 15th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and 95th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But when playing on the road, Maryland sees their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency plumes to 104th in the nation — but their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency skyrockets to 15th best nationally. The Terrapins have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road. Turgeon has his team playing great defense — they have the sixth-best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency over their last ten games. In their last five games, Maryland has held these opponents to 58.8 PPG on 35.9% shooting. The Terrapins have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total with the number in the 130s. Northwestern has played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 22 of their last 29 games Under the Total after an upset win as a road underdog. The Wildcats have also played 31 of their last 44 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Furthermore, Northwestern has played 26 of their last 35 games Under the Total after a win on the road against a conference rival — and they have played 27 of their last 39 home games Under the Total after beating a Big Ten foe. They return home where they hold their opponents to just 40.6% shooting. But while the Wildcats rank 88th nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, they drop to 157th nationally when playing at home. The Under is 15-5-1 in Northwestern’s last 21 home games against teams with a winning percentage of 40% or less on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. The Wildcats only made 42.2% of their shots in their upset win over the Gophers — but that was the best shooting effort in their last four games. Northwestern is scoring only 62.0 PPG in their last five games on 40.1% shooting which is far below their 71.5 PPG and 43.7% marks for the season. The Wildcats have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-80% range.
FINAL TAKE: Northwestern has played 4 straight Unders as an underdog — and Maryland has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored. 25* CBB Big Ten Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Maryland Terrapins (691) and the Northwestern Wildcats (692). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-02-21 |
Wisc-Milwaukee v. Wright State OVER 151 |
Top |
94-92 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Phoenix (653) and the Wright State Raiders (654) in the Quarterfinals of the Horizon League tournament. THE SITUATION: Wisconsin-Milwaukee (9-11) snapped a five-game losing streak last Thursday in the opening round of the Horizon League tournament with their 84-72 win against IUPUI as a 4-point favorite. Wright State (18-5) plays for the first time since February 20th when they won at Northern Kentucky, 77-71, as a 9-point favorite. The Raiders host this tournament game.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Phoenix have played eight straight Overs after their win in the Horizon League tournament last week — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Overs. Wisconsin-Milwaukee has also played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. The Phoenix are playing definitively better on offense. While they rank 200th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency this season, they climb to 144th nationally when assessing their performance in their last ten games. They are scoring 83.4 PPG over their last five contests which is +8.3 PPG above their season average. But they are also allowing 85.6 PPG in these last five games which are +9.9 PPG above their season defensive average. They go on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. Wisconsin-Milwaukee has also played 7 of their last 10 road games Over the Total as a double-digit underdog. Wright State has played 26 of their last 42 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 20 of their last 30 games Over the Total after winning four of their last five games. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last four games, they have then played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after not covering the point spread in at least two straight. I did have initial concerns about the Raiders’ long layoff — but they probably will not shoot worse than the 43.5% clip they managed against the Norse in their last game which was the lowest field goal percentage in their last ten games. Wright State may be cold in the first half — but don’t give up on the Over until this one is over! The Raiders will get plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities tonight as they pull down 34.3% of their missed shots which is the 25th best mark in the nation. This is a great shooting team — they make 37.2% of their 3-pointers, 35th nationally, and 53.8% of their shots inside the arc, 45th nationally — and playing on their familiar home court without a full house should help them get back into rhythm. I am playing more Overs this season without fans in the stands — and they are playing a Phoenix team that ranks 321st in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 37.8% of their 3-pointers. Let’s trust the Horizon League’s second-most efficient offense to figure it out — and they will have fresh legs. Wright State has played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total with the number in the 150s — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as a double-digit favorite. Defense has been a concern as of late — they are allowing 74.4 PPG on 45.0% shooting in their last five games which is well above the 66.3 PPG and 40.0% they allow for the season.
FINAL TAKE: Wisconsin-Milwaukee will be looking to avenge a 92-82 loss at Wright State on February 13th — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total when playing with same-season revenge. The Phoenix has also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 80 points. 25* CBB Horizon League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Phoenix (653) and the Wright State Raiders (654). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-28-21 |
North Dakota State v. South Dakota OVER 136.5 |
Top |
89-77 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the North Dakota State Bison (811) and the South Dakota Coyotes (812). THE SITUATION: North Dakota State (12-11) has lost three of their last four games after their 80-71 loss at South Dakota yesterday. South Dakota (13-9) has now won two games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bison only made 40.9% of their shots yesterday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. They did nail 10 shots from behind the arc after making 11 shots from 3-point range in their previous game against South Dakota State — and they have played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total after making at least 10 shots from 3-point range in two straight contests. They should shoot better this afternoon playing in the same gym for the second-straight day. As it is, they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. They have also played 4 straight games Over the Total on the road against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, North Dakota State has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total as a favorite of up to 3 points — and they have played 10 of their last 11 road games Over the Total when priced in the +/- 3-point range. The Bison have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. South Dakota has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. The Coyotes’ 47.2% shooting percentage was their lowest in three games — so they should shoot as well or better. But holding the Bison to 40.9% shooting was the best defensive effort in their last five contests. South Dakota has now played 4 straight games Over the Total on their home court — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage at 40% or less on the road. The Coyotes average 83.0 PPG on their home court on 52.0% shooting. But their defense is faltering as they have allowed their last five opponents to make 46.3% of their shots which is generating 82.8 PPG. South Dakota has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: North Dakota State has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* CBB Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the North Dakota State Bison (811) and the South Dakota Coyotes (812). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-26-21 |
Coastal Carolina v. Troy State UNDER 139.5 |
Top |
75-59 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (847) and the Troy Trojans (848). THE SITUATION: Coastal Carolina (13-6) snapped a three-game losing streak on Sunday in a 65-55 win against Georgia Southern as a 6-point favorite. Troy (10-14) has lost five in a row after their 65-53 loss at Georgia State as a 10-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chanticleers have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Coastal Carolina has played six straight Unders — and not only have they played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game but they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders in a row. The Chanticleers have the second-best defense in the Sun Belt in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have held their last five opponents to just 63.8 PPG on 37.1% shooting from the field — as compared to their 67.0 PPG and 39.2% opponent’s offensive marks for the season. They go back on the road where they are making only 40.8% of their shots. Coastal Carolina has played 5 straight games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total when favored. Additionally, the Chanticleers have played 5 straight Unders when favored — and the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games when playing a team with a losing record. Troy has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while the Trojans have not covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in their last two games. Troy has also played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total when playing their second game in seven days. They return home where they have the second-best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in Sun Belt play. They hold their guests to 36.7% on their home court which is resulting in only 59.7 PPG. The Trojans only hit 41.6% of their shots at home. Troy has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Trojans can struggle to score — they are averaging only 60.8 PPG on 39.7% shooting in their last five games. Troy has played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games.
FINAL TAKE: Troy will be playing with revenge from a 70-65 loss at Coastal Carolina on January 23rd as a 10-point underdog. The Trojans have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when avenging a same-season loss. Troy also lost the January 22nd meeting between these two teams — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when motivated by double-revenge. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (847) and the Troy Trojans (848). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-25-21 |
Western Kentucky v. Houston UNDER 137.5 |
Top |
57-81 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (749) and the Houston Cougars (750). THE SITUATION: Western Kentucky (15-4) has won six games in a row after their 89-66 win against Rice as a 9.5-point favorite back on February 13th. Houston (18-3) has won three of their last four games with their 90-52 victory against Cincinnati as a 12.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Hilltoppers made 56.5% of their shots against the Owls after shooting 50.9% from the field in their previous game at home against Rice. Western Kentucky has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in two straight games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. Additionally, the Hilltoppers have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 6 straight Unders after winning two in a row on their home court. Western Kentucky has also played 10 of their last 12 games on the road Under the Total after two wins in a row against conference opponents — and they have played 17 of their last 24 games on the road Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total (146.5 versus Rice 2/13). The Hilltoppers may be rusty on offense with the almost-two-week layoff. As it is, they have only scored 64.6 PPG on 38.4% shooting in their last five games which is almost 5.0 PPG below their season average. And while they rank 103rd nationally in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency at home, they fall to 149th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road. But their defense travels — Western Kentucky ranks 57th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency compared to their 132nd ranking when playing at home. They hold their home hosts to 41.8% shooting. The Hilltoppers have played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total on the road — including seven of their last nine games. They also have played 5 straight road games Under the Total as an underdog. Houston has played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win at home by at least 20 points — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 80 points in their last game. The Cougars also held the Bearcats to just 30.0% shooting. Head coach Kelvin Sampson has one of the best defensive teams in the nation. Houston ranks 4th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency while leading the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 42.2%. The Cougars have the second-best Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in the nation when playing at home where they limit their opponents to just 34.1% shooting and 54.2 PPG. Houston has played 14 of their last 20 home games Under the Total — and the Under is 38-14-1 in the last 52 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Under is also 16-5-1 in the Cougars’ last 22 home games against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Houston has played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games — and Western Kentucky has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB Thursday ESPN2 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (749) and the Houston Cougars (750). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-22-21 |
Syracuse v. Duke OVER 148 |
Top |
71-85 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Syracuse Orange (857) and the Duke Blue Devils (858). THE SITUATION: Syracuse (13-6) has won three in a row with their 75-67 win against Notre Dame as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday. Duke (10-8) has won three in a row as well with their 66-65 upset win against Virginia as a 3-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Orange only made 43.5% of their shots against the Fighting Irish but still rallied from a 20-point deficit to win that game. Syracuse has then played 9 of their last 11 road games Over the Total after a win. They also have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with one day of rest. Head coach Jim Boeheim’s team does not fit his typical profile — they are much better on offense than they are on defense. The Orange ranks 38th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they rank 29th nationally in this metric when playing on the road. Yet Syracuse is only 84th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they plummet to 186th in the nation in this metric when playing away from home. Boeheim’s 2-3 zone is not working this season — and it remains as vulnerable as ever to offensive rebounding with the open space around the rim it leaves vulnerable. Not only do the Orange allow their opponents to pull down 31.1% of their missed shots, 279th nationally, but home teams are getting second-chance scoring opportunities in a whopping 37.5% of their missed shots which is 340th in the nation. Syracuse has played 15 of their last 18 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 straight road games Over the Total as an underdog of up to six points. They are allowing 78.0 PPG when playing on the road. And while the Orange have played three straight Unders, the Orange have played 6 straight games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. Additionally, Syracuse has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Over the Total as an underdog. Duke has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 straight home games Over the Total after a win against an ACC rival. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread win. The Blue Devils shot 51.0% from the field against the Cavaliers’ pack-line defense which was actually the worst shooting effort in their last five games. Duke is averaging 79.0 PPG over their last five games on 52.5% shooting over that span — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after making at least 50% of their shots in three straight games. While the Blue Devils have been pilloried for being one of the blue blood programs suffering a down season, they have under the radar regarding how good they are on offense. They rank 14th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they have improved to 10th in the nation in that metric over their last ten games to demonstrate they do not miss freshman Jalen Johnson who left the team. But Duke struggles on the end of the court as they rank just 135th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home. The Over is 19-6-1 in the Blue Devils’ last 26 home games including eight of their last ten home games finishing Over the Total. Duke has also played 7 straight games Over the Total at home against teams who are not winning at least 40% of their games on the road. The Blue Devils pound the offensive glass as well to take advantage of their missed shots against the Boeheim 2-3 zone — they rebound 33.6% of their missed shots at home, 67th nationally. Duke has played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better — and they have played 31 of their last 43 games Over the Total as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: The Blue Devils have played 13 of their last 19 home games Over the Total with the number in the 140s — and the Orange has played 10 of their last 13 road games Over the Total with the number in the 140 to 149.5 point range. 25* CBB Big Monday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Syracuse Orange (857) and the Duke Blue Devils (858). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-20-21 |
West Virginia v. Texas OVER 145.5 |
Top |
84-82 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the West Virginia Mountaineers (653) and the Texas Longhorns (654). THE SITUATION: West Virginia (14-6) had their three-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in their 91-90 upset loss in double-overtime against Oklahoma as a 4-point favorite. Texas (13-5) has won two games in a row after their 70-55 win against TCU as an 11.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mountaineers made only 42.4% of their shots on Saturday which was the lowest shooting mark in their last four games. West Virginia has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a game at home where both teams scored at least 85 points. The Mountaineers have played six straight Overs while scoring at least 82 points in three straight games. They have then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring at least 75 points in three straight games — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Overs. West Virginia has also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing their second game in the last eight days. The Mountaineers tend to play higher-scoring games because they generate additional scoring opportunities. They are 10th in the nation by rebounding 36.2% of their missed shots. They are also 30th nationally by forcing turnovers in 21.9% of their opponent’s possessions when playing on the road. West Virginia has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. In their last five games, the Mountaineers are scoring 83.8 PPG. But they have also allowed their last five opponents to make 45.4% of their shots which is generating 79.6 PPG. West Virginia ranks 9th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency which would make them one of head coach Bob Huggins’ best offensive teams in his career. But he has had many better teams on the defensive end of the court — this group ranks only 64th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Mountaineers have played 5 straight games Over the Total as an underdog — and the Over is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. They have also played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total with the number in the 140s. Texas has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win by at least 15 points — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 55 points in their last contest. The Longhorns are an excellent defensive team who ranks 26th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. But COVID pauses and now ice storms and power outages may be taking their toll on Shaka Smart’s team. While they hold their opponents to 67.6 PPG on 40.5% shooting, their last five opponents have made 44.6% of their shots which is generating 74.0 PPG. Texas has played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 16 home games Over the Total when favored by up to 6 points. The Longhorns have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: Texas won the first meeting between these two teams on January 9th when they upset West Virginia in Morgantown by a 1.5-point underdog. The Mountaineers have played 6 straight games Over the Total when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite. 25* CBB ABC-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the West Virginia Mountaineers (653) and the Texas Longhorns (654). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-18-21 |
Vermont v. Maryland-Baltimore County UNDER 135 |
Top |
80-71 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vermont Catamounts (307059) and the Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers (307060). THE SITUATION: Vermont (9-3) has won seven straight games after their 61-57 win against Stony Brook on Sunday. UMBC (13-4) has won three in a row with their 60-48 win at Stony Brook back on February 8th as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Vermont held Stony Brook to just 32% shooting — and they have then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after holding their last opponent to 33% or less shooting in their last game. The Catamounts are 15th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.1%. Vermont has also played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Catamounts have still covered the point spread in four of their last six games — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Vermont goes back on the road where they have played 5 straight games Under the Total with the number set in the 135.5 to 139.5 point range. The Catamounts have also played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better at home. Furthermore, Vermont has played 13 of their last 18 road games Under the Total as a favorite — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total when favored in the 3.5 to 6 point range. The Catamounts should see their stout defense of late travel — they have held their last five opponents to just 53.8 PPG on 31.8% shooting from the field. UMBC held Stony Brook to 32.0% shooting in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing their last opponent to shoot better than 33%. Additionally, the Retrievers have played 5 straight Unders after not allowing more than 50 points in their last contest. UMBC is also playing outstanding defense right now — they have held their last five opponents to just 60.4 PPG on 37.5% shooting. The Retrievers rank 17th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.1%. But will UMBC be rusty with their shooting playing their first game in ten days? They are only making 42.1% of their shots in their last five games which is resulting in only 65.6 PPG. The Retrievers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. They return home where they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. UMBC has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Retrievers have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight Unders against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Vermont has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB America East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Vermont Catamounts (307059) and the Maryland-Baltimore County Retrievers (307060). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-12-21 |
UAB v. Louisiana Tech UNDER 135 |
Top |
58-70 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (869) and the Louisiana Tech (870). THE SITUATION: UAB (16-2) has won six straight games with their 75-60 win against UTEP as an 8.5-point favorite last Saturday. Louisiana Tech (15-6) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in their 57-55 loss at North Texas as a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blazers made 53.8% of their shots last Saturday in what was the best shooting effort in their last 13 games. UAB has played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, while the Blazers have covered the point spread in their last two games as a favorite, they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total after covering the point spread in their last two games as a favorite. They are likely going to not shoot as well tonight as they did against the Miners — their 45.2% effective field goal percentage when playing on the road, 287th in the nation. They make only 41.5% of their shots on the road which translates into just 62.7 PPG. But UAB holds their home hosts to only 56.7 PPG on 41.4% shooting. The Blazers rank 25th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they improve to 23rd in the nation in true road games in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. UAB has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 straight road games Under the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, the Blazers have played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total with the number set in the 130s — including playing Unders in six of these last seven games. Louisiana Tech has played a decisive 51 of their last 82 games Under the Total after a loss on the road to a conference rival. The Bulldogs have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. And while Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two of their last three games. This is the Bulldogs’ second game since last Friday — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing just their second game in the last seven days. Louisiana Tech has not allowed more than 63 points in five straight games — and they have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in at least three straight games. They have held their last five opponents to just 60.0 PPG on 39.9% shooting from the field. But they are scoring only 67.4 PPG in these previous five games. They return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 19 of their last 27 home games Under the Total as a favorite of 3 points or less.
FINAL TAKE: Louisiana Tech has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and the Under is 7-2-1 in UAB’s last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage of at least 60%. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (869) and the Louisiana Tech (870). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-09-21 |
West Virginia v. Texas Tech OVER 140.5 |
Top |
82-71 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the West Virginia Mountaineers (625) and the Texas Tech Red Raiders (626). THE SITUATION: West Virginia (13-5) has won four of their last five games after their 91-79 win against Kansas on Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite. Texas Tech (14-5) has won three in a row with their 73-62 victory at Kansas State as a 15.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mountaineers have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Overs after a point spread victory. Additionally, West Virginia has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing a game at home where both teams scored at least 75 points. The Mountaineers shot 50% from the field on Saturday which initially gave me pause that it was an outlier performance. But this is one of Bob Huggins’ best shooting teams in his career — they are second in the Big 12 by making 42.9% of their 3-pointers. They are making 46.7% of their shots over their last five games which is resulting in an 80.8 PPG scoring average. Huggins also deploys a style of play that generates more scoring opportunities even if their shots are not falling. West Virginia pulls down 36.1% of their missed shots, 10th in the nation. They also force turnovers in 20.4% of their opponent’s possessions. The Mountaineers have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played 4 straight games on the road with the number in the 140 to 149.5 range. Furthermore, West Virginia has played 7 of their last 8 road games Over the Total — and they have played 5 straight road games Over the Total. Texas Tech has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Red Raiders have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. Texas Tech made 47.1% of their shots on Saturday — the best shooting effort in their last six games. Again, that gave me an initial pause. Yet the Red Raiders only scored 30 points in the first half in that game after scoring a mere 25 points in their previous game against Oklahoma. Texas Tech has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after failing to score more than 30 points in the first half in two straight games. And the Red Raiders’ defensive play has not been quite as stingy as of late — they have allowed their last five opponents to make 44.1% of their shots resulting in 68.2 PPG which is a sharp uptick from the 61.7 PPG they allow on 40.5% shooting for the season. Texas Tech has allowed their last two opponents to score just 52 and 62 points — but they have then played 33 of their last 49 home games Over the Total after not allowing more than 65 points in two straight games. The Red Raiders also create a bench of additional scoring opportunities if their shots are not falling. They are 24th in the nation by pulling down 34.7% of their missed shots. They are seventh in the nation by forcing turnovers in 24.9% of their opponent’s possessions. And head coach Chris Beard’s team is 14th in the nation in getting to the free-throw line. Texas Tech has played 6 of their last 8 games Over Total when favored — and 3 of their 4 games this season against teams winning 60 to 80% of their games finished Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Red Raiders will be looking to avenge an 88-87 loss to the Mountaineers in Morgantown on January 25th. Texas Tech has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when attempting to avenge a same-season loss. 25* CBB Tuesday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the West Virginia Mountaineers (625) and the Texas Tech Red Raiders (626). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-06-21 |
NC State v. Boston College OVER 146 |
Top |
81-65 |
Push |
0 |
4 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (605) and the Boston College Eagles (606). THE SITUATION: NC State (7-7) has lost two straight games as well as five of their last seven contests with their 65-57 loss at home to Virginia on Wednesday as a 7-point underdog. Boston College (3-10) has lost five of their last six games with their 80-70 loss at Notre Dame as a 4.5-point underdog back on January 16th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: NC State made only 43.4% of their shots against the tough Cavaliers’ defense on Wednesday — that was the worst offensive effort in their last five games. They did get 23 points from Jericole Hellems. The junior has averaged 23.5 PPG in his last two games taking over the role as the team’s go-to scorer after the season-ending ACL injury to Devon Daniels on January 28th in the game against Wake Forest. Daniels was averaging 16.5 PPG. D.J. Funderburk also scored 9 points in 17 minutes of play after not playing in the previous game at Syracuse for an undisclosed university issue. Head coach Kevin Keatts’ team should still generate plenty of offense even without Daniels. They rank 53rd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They generate offense from their defense — they are 15th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 23.3% of their opponent’s possessions. This is an area of weakness for the Eagles who are 188th in the country with a 19.5% turnover rate. NC State has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after losing two in a row against conference opponents — and they have played 6 straight games on the road after losing at least three of their last four games. But defense is also an issue for Keatts’ team as they rank 14th in the ACC in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Wolfpack go back on the road where they are allowing their opponents to make 50.7% of their shots which is translating into 80.0 PPG. They have played 7 straight road games Over the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 14 road games Over the Total with the number set in the 140s. NC State has also allowed their last five opponents to shoot 52.5% from the field and 79.6 PPG. Boston College has not played in about three weeks — they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with at least seven days of rest. The Eagles may be rusty with their shooting — but they are going to play at a fast pace with fresh legs. Boston College is second in the ACC in tempo — and the defensive pressure from the Wolfpack will contribute to a frenetic pace. NC State allows their opponents to make 46.8% of their shots for the season — and the Eagles have played 28 of their last 39 games Over the Total against teams with a defensive field goal percentage of 45% or higher. Boston College has played 4 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. Defense is an issue for Jim Christian’s team as well as they rank 315th in the nation in opponent’s effective field goal percentage while allowing their opponents to make 54.3% of their shots inside the arc, 313th in the nation. The Eagles return home where their defense does not improve much as they allow their guests to generate an effective field goal percentage of 53.7%, 301st in the country, by allowing these visitors to make 52.7% of their 2-pointers and 36.9% of their 3-pointers. Boston College has played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total — and they have played 28 of their last 40 home games Over the Total with the number set at 145 to 149.5.
FINAL TAKE: NC State has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 20 to 40% range. It may be sloppy — but expect a fast pace between these two teams with suspect defenses. 25* CBB ACC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (605) and the Boston College Eagles (606). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-04-21 |
Washington v. Oregon State OVER 141.5 |
Top |
71-91 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington Huskies (745) and the Oregon State Beavers (746). THE SITUATION: Washington (3-12) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 77-62 upset loss at home to Washington State as a 1.5-point favorite. Oregon State (8-7) has lost their last two games with their 57-52 loss at UCLA as an 11.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Huskies made only 38.2% of their shots against the Cougars which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. Washington has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home. They also have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after an upset loss to a conference rival. Additionally, the Huskies have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The defense for head coach Mike Hopkins’ team has been the bigger issue this season — the 77 points they allowed against Washington State was actually the fewest in their last nine games. The Cougars have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 75 points in two straight games. Over their last five games, Washington is scoring 74.6 PPG — but they are allowing 82.4 PPG with those five opponents making 46.9% of their shots. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 0-8 this season. They allow their home hosts to make 47.1% of their shots which translates into 82.7 PPG. Hopkins is a Jim Boeheim disciple with his using the 2-3 zone defense that he has made a staple at Syracuse. Defensive rebounding is a weakness with that scheme — and the Huskies are allowing their opponents to rebound 39.1% of their missed shots which is 304th worst in the nation. But the 2-3 zone is intended to force ill-advised outside shots — yet Washington is seeing their home hosts nail 39.7% of their 3-pointers which is 343rd in the nation. The Huskies have played 7 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 7 straight road games Over the Total as an underdog. Oregon State should take advantage of both these vulnerabilities. The Beavers pull down a healthy 29.0% of their shots on the offensive glass — and they make 35.4% of their 3-pointers at home. Oregon State has also played 15 of their last 23 games Over the Total after a loss to a conference rival. Furthermore, the Beavers have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after failing to score at least 60 points in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after scoring no more than 55 points in their last contest. Oregon State did hold the Bruins to just 32.7% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last thirteen games. The Beavers return home where they are 7-4 while scoring 75.5 PPG. Oregon State has played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 12 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 140 to 144.5 point range. The Beavers have also played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40% on the road. Furthermore, Oregon State has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams not winning more than 40% of their games. And in their last 18 games with the Total set in the 140s, the Beavers have played 13 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Washington has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total against Pac-12 opponents. The Huskies allow 77.3 PPG — and Oregon State has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams who allow at least 77 PPG. 25* CBB Pac-12 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Washington Huskies (745) and the Oregon State Beavers (746). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-01-21 |
Valparaiso v. Evansville UNDER 127 |
Top |
51-58 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Valparaiso Crusaders (863) and the Evansville Purple Aces (864). THE SITUATION: Valparaiso (6-10) saw their three-game winning streak snapped yesterday with their 70-52 loss at Evansville as a 1-point underdog. Evansville (7-8) ended a three-game losing streak with the victory.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Crusaders allowed the Purple Aces to nail 60.4% of their shots from the field which was their worst defensive effort of the season. Valparaiso holds their home hosts to just 42.6% shooting — so they should play better on the defensive end of the court. The Crusaders have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to make at least 55% of their shots. Valparaiso also made 47.5% of their shots in that game which was their best field goal percentage in their last nine contests. The Crusaders are 10th in the Missouri Valley Conference in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. While they score 67.9 PPG on the season with a 41.2% field goal percentage, they have averaged just 64.2 PPG along with a 38.9% field goal percentage in their last five games. Valparaiso's scoring average drops to 63.0 PPG along with a 40.8% shooting percentage in their nine road games. They have played 5 straight road games Under the Total — and they have played 6 straight road games Under the Total with a winning record at home. They also have played 6 straight road games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, the Crusaders have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 15 points. They also have played 28 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a loss on the road where they did not score at least 60 points. Evansville enjoyed their best shooting effort of the season yesterday — and it was only the second time all season where they shot better than 48.9% of their shots. The Purple Aces make only 42.0% of their shots. Evansville has also allowed their last four opponents to make at least 47.5% of their shots — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after allowing their last three opponents to make at last 47% of their shots. The Purple Aces have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. And while this is their second game since January 17th, they have played 4 straight Unders when playing their second game in eight days. They stay at home where they hold their opponents to 62.2 PPG which is -6.1 PPG below their season average. Evansville has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage at 40% or less on the road. The Purple Aces have also played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Despite both these teams overachieving with their shooting yesterday, that result still finished below the 126.5 Total. There were only 59 possessions for both teams in that game. If the tempo is similar to that again tonight, this game should finish well below the number. Valparaiso has played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CBB Missouri Valley Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Valparaiso Crusaders (863) and the Evansville Purple Aces (864). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-30-21 |
Air Force v. San Jose State OVER 137.5 |
|
62-75 |
Loss |
-113 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Air Force Falcons (717) and the San Jose State Spartans (718). THE SITUATION: Air Force (4-11) will be looking to avenge their 59-58 upset loss to the Spartans on Thursday as a 6-point favorite. San Jose State (4-11) has pulled off two straight upset victories with that victory.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Falcons made only 40.7% of their shots which was their lowest field goal percentage in their last seven games. Even more ominous for Air Force, while the Spartans made 50% of their shots on Thursday, that was still the second-best defensive effort for the Falcons in their last six games. Air Force has allowed their last five opponents to nail 51.8% of their shots which has resulted in 78.8 PPG. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. Air Force stays on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, the Falcons have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. Additionally, Air Force has played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total with the number set in the 130s — and San Jose State has played 16 of their last 20 games Over the Total with the Over/Under in the 130 to 139.5 point range. The Spartans have played 18 of their last 23 games Over the Total after an upset win as a home underdog. The Over is also 20-8-1 in San Jose State’s last 29 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 16-7-3 in their last 26 games after a point spread victory. By holding Air Force to 40.7% shooting, the Spartans played their best defensive game in their last seven contests. Yet they have still allowed their last five opponents to make 48.2% of their shots — and they allow their visitors to average 81.7 PPG when they are playing at home. San Jose State has played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total — and they have played 9 of their last 12 home games Over the Total against teams not winning more than 40% of their road games.
FINAL TAKE: Air Force has played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing with revenge — and they have played 6 straight Overs when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 60 points. 20* CBB Saturday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Air Force Falcons (717) and the San Jose State Spartans (718). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-30-21 |
California v. Arizona OVER 137.5 |
Top |
50-71 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 5:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the California Golden Bears (687) and the Arizona Wildcats (688). THE SITUATION: California (7-11) has lost three straight games with their 72-68 loss at Arizona State as a 9.5-point underdog on Thursday. Arizona (12-4) saw their three-game winning streak end on Thursday in a 73-64 loss to Stanford as a 9-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Golden Bears made only 39.3% of their shots which was their worst shooting effort in their last six games. Cal did get their leading scorer back in that game against the Sun Devils with Matt Bradley scoring 26 points with 10 rebounds. The Golden Bears have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. And while that game finished Over the 135 point total, Cal has then played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after playing an Over. The Bears stay on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total. Cal scores a healthy 73.4 PPG on 47.6% shooting on the road. But their defense has been a mess playing away from home — they have an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 56.4% with their opponents making 42.6% of their 3-pointers when they are playing on the road, ranking 298th and 333rd in the nation. The Golden Bears have played 4 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Cal has also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total with the number set in the 130s. Arizona has played 5 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Wildcats have also played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after an upset loss at home against a Pac-12 foe. Arizona made only 41.5% of their shots which was their lowest field goal percentage in their last five games. The Wildcats rank 16th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — so they should shoot better this afternoon. But this is a tired basketball team playing their second game in three days and fourth in the last nine days. Injuries are not helping matters — they lost a rotation player with Jemarl Baker’s season-ending injury and Bennedict Mathurin played 25 minutes off the bench while scoring 10 points after suffering a right ankle sprain on Monday. Fatigue will impact the Wildcats’ effort on defense and likely lead to them fouling more. Arizona allowed the Cardinal to shoot 49.1% from the field in what was their worst defensive effort in five games. The Wildcats have played 4 straight Overs when playing their second game in three days. They stay at home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as a favorite — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 130s. They score 76.8 PPG at home — and in their last five games, Arizona is scoring 80.4 PPG on 48.4% shooting.
FINAL TAKE: The Wildcats have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total as a favorite. California has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB Pac-12 Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the California Golden Bears (687) and the Arizona Wildcats (688). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-28-21 |
Weber State v. Idaho OVER 145 |
Top |
81-56 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Weber State Wildcats (755) and the Idaho Vandals (756). THE SITUATION: Weber State (7-4) had their four-game winning streak snapped on Saturday in their 77-72 loss at Southern Utah in a pick ‘em contest. Idaho (0-11) remained winless back on January 16th in their last game which ended in a 75-61 loss to Northern Colorado as an 8.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats made only 39.4% of their shots which was their lowest field goal percentage in their last eight games. Weber State can shoot the basketball (per usual) — this year, they rank 40th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 54.2%. They have played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread setback. Additionally, the Wildcats have played 6 straight Overs after a loss by six points or less. Over their last five games, Weber State is scoring 90.2 PPG while nailing 53.3% of their shots. They stay on the road where they are allowing their home hosts to score 74.8 PPG. The Wildcats have 7 of their last 9 road games Over the Total against teams who are not winning more than 40% of their games at home. Weber State has also played a decisive 41 of their last 60 road games Over the Total when favored. Idaho has played 22 of their last 32 home games Over the Total after playing their last game at home as an underdog. The Vandals had made at least 50.9% of their shots in three straight games before running into Northern Colorado who held them to 54 points on 39.6% shooting in their first meeting on January 14th before making only 42% of their shots two days later the last time they were on the court. Idaho has played 14 of their last 19 games Over the Total after not scoring more than 65 points in two straight games. Head coach Zac Claus will likely want his team passing more after they dished out just 10 and 6 assists respectively in those last two games. The Vandals have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after not assisting on more than 12 baskets in two straight games. Those two games finished Under the Total — but Idaho has played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. Defense is an issue for this team — they have the nation’s 333rd worst Adjusted Defensive Efficiency number which worsens to a 334th mark in the nation when they are playing at home. Their visitors nail 44.2% of their shots from 3-point land when playing at home.
FINAL TAKE: Idaho has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Weber State has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total as a double-digit favorite. 25* CBB Big Sky Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Weber State Wildcats (755) and the Idaho Vandals (756). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-23-21 |
San Jose State v. New Mexico UNDER 142.5 |
|
83-71 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Jose State Spartans (647) and the New Mexico Lobos (648). San Jose State (2-11) looks to avenge a 67-51 loss to the Lobos on their temporary neutral court in the Texas panhandle on Thursday as an 8-point underdog. New Mexico (5-8) snapped a two-game losing streak.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Spartans made only 40% of their shots — yet that was the best shooting effort in their last four games. San Jose State has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Spartans have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 15 points. They have played 4 straight games Under the Total on a neutral court. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road. They are making only 39.5% of their shots in their last five games which is resulting in 59.6 PPG. They have also played 5 straight games Under the Total as an underdog. New Mexico made 47.9% of their shots on Thursday which was the best shooting effort in their last six contests. But the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after a point spread victory. They are only scoring 57.0 PPG over their last five games with a field goal percentage of just 37.2% over that span. They also have played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court (which is a close approximation to their temporary home in Texas without fans).
FINAL TAKE: San Jose State has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with revenge — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 60 points. 10* CBB Saturday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the San Jose State Spartans (647) and the New Mexico Lobos (648). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-22-21 |
CS Bakersfield v. Cal-Riverside UNDER 125.5 |
|
47-45 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the CS-Bakersfield (865) and UC-Irvine (866). THE SITUATION: CS-Bakersfield (9-4) has won five straight games after their 83-72 win at Hawai’i on Saturday as a 1.5-point underdog. UC-Riverside (6-3) has won three of their last four games with their 70-53 win at Cal-Poly Slo on Saturday as a 10-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 5-2-1 in the UC-Riverside’s last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 33 of their last 45 games Under the Total after a win on the road. The Highlanders held the Mustangs to just 30.9% shooting after limiting them to 30% shooting the day before. UC-Riverside has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after holding their last two opponents to no better than 37% from the field. Over their last five games, the Highlanders are allowing only 65.4 PPG on 39.0% shooting from the field. They return home where the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games. The Under is also 11-5-1 in their last 17 home games as a favorite. CS-Bakersfield has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a win on the road against a conference rival — and they have played 8 straight games Under the Total after a double-digit win against a Big West foe. The Roadrunners have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Now they stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road. They also have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the number set at 129.5 or lower.
FINAL TAKE: CS-Bakersfield has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog — and UC-Riverside has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total as a favorite. 10* CBB Friday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the CS-Bakersfield (865) and UC-Irvine (866). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-22-21 |
Troy State v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 138.5 |
Top |
81-90 |
Loss |
-108 |
2 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Troy Trojans (837) and the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (838). THE SITUATION: Troy (6-7) has lost three games in a row with their 63-56 loss at Georgia Southern as a 6-point underdog on Saturday. Coastal Carolina (9-3) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Saturday in their 71-68 loss a Georgia State as a 7-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Trojans made 48.9% of their shots against the Eagles which was much higher than the 37.7% shooting percentage they are saddled with in their ten road games. They are scoring only 56.8 PPG on the road. Troy has played 6 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Their game with Georgia Southern still finished Under the 128.5 point total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing their last game Under the Total. The Trojans are playing better on defense as of late as they have held their last five opponents to just 40.3% shooting which is resulting in just 62.2 PPG. They stay on the road where they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total — and they have played 35 of their last 52 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Troy has also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog overall. Coastal Carolina has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss where they covered the point spread as an underdog. The Chanticleers have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. And while they have still won five of their last seven games, Coastal Carolina has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. This is a team that was playing at a faster pace in their soft non-conference schedule — six of their first eight games saw at least 75 possessions for both teams. The Chanticleers have not seen more than 72 possessions for both teams in their last four games. They started Sun Belt Conference play in their last five games — they are scoring 74.4 PPG with a 41.8% shooting percentage which is a big dropoff from their 87.1 PPG scoring average along with a 49.2% shooting percentage overall which includes those seven non-conference games. Additionally, Coastal Carolina has played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 135 to 139.5 point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 4-0-1 in the Chanticleers’ last 5 games against teams with a losing record. Troy has played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 25* CBB Sun Belt Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Troy Trojans (837) and the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (838). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-21-21 |
UCLA v. California OVER 132.5 |
Top |
61-57 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (763) and the California Golden Bears (764). THE SITUATION: UCLA (11-2) has won six games in a row with their 81-76 win against Washington on Saturday as a 14.5-point favorite. California (7-8) has won two of their last three games with their 72-63 win at Utah as a 12-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bruins made only 41.4% of their shots against the Huskies in what was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. Mick Cronin has adapted his talent at UCLA to construct this team to be quite different than the grinding-defensive units he had at Cincinnati. This Bruins’ team ranks 10th in the nation adjusted offensive efficiency. They crash the offensive glass still by pulling down 33.3% of their missed shots (46th in the nation). They are also making 38.6% of their 3-pointers which is 29th in the country — and that mark has improved to a 44.6% clip in conference play. The Golden Bears struggle to defend the perimeter — they are allowing their opponents to make 40.4% of their 3-pointers, 334th in the nation. Yet Cronin’s team ranks 119th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency after allowing Washington to make 51.7% of their shots. UCLA has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win at home — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a win against a Pac-12 rival. Cronin lost one of his best players in Chris Smith to a season-ending injury — but he still has five other players averaging double-digits per game. The Bruins are scoring 79.8 PPG in their last five games on 47.1% shooting from the field. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring 79.4 PPG — but they are allowing 79.8 PPG. UCLA has played 4 straight road games Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams winning at least 60% of their games at home. The Bruins have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total when favored. California has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win against a conference opponent — and they have played 7 straight games Over the Total after an upset victory against a Pac-12 foe. The Golden Bears are playing with Matt Bradley — but head coach Mark Fox’s team has found an offensive rhythm without him. Not only have they won two of their last three games after he suffered his ankle injury but they scored 50 points in the second half in their upset victory against the Utes. Cal also held Utah to just 41.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last seven games. Yet the Golden Bears have allowed their last five opponents to make 47.6% of their shots for a 74.8 PPG scoring mark — and their Pac-12 opponents are making 48.6% of their shots against them. Cal ranks 10th in the conference in adjusted defensive efficiency. They return home where the Over is 18-7-1 in their last 26 games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Golden Bears have also played 6 straight games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played on December 6th with the Bruins winning at home by a 76-56 score as a 9-point favorite. California has played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total when avenging a double-digit loss. 25* CBB Thursday ESPNU Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (763) and the California Golden Bears (764). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-15-21 |
UAB v. Charlotte UNDER 129.5 |
Top |
61-37 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 5:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (839) and the Charlotte 49ers (840). THE SITUATION: UAB (9-1) has won two games in a row with their 62-58 win against Southern Mississippi as a 13-point favorite on Saturday. Charlotte (5-5) has lost two of their last three games after their 75-72 loss to Belmont Abbey in a non-boarded game on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blazers have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a win at home. Additionally, UAB has played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total with that game skimming Under 131 total. The Blazers are limiting their opponents to just a 41.1% effective field goal percentage which is third-best in the nation. They are holding their opponents to just 57.0 PPG this season on 36.7% shooting from the field. Now UAB goes on the road for just the second time this season. They made only 39.3% of their shots against Southern Miss. The Blazers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road — and they have also played 37 of their last 56 road games Under the Total as a favorite of 6 points or less — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total as a favorite overall. Charlotte has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss at home. The 49ers stay at home where they are scoring 67.9 PPG on just 44.4% shooting. Charlotte has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The 49ers have also played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as an underdog. Additionally, Charlotte has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have played 8 straight games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Expect a lower-scoring game. 25* CBB Friday ESPNU Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (839) and the Charlotte 49ers (840). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-14-21 |
NC-Greensboro v. Samford OVER 150.5 |
Top |
87-63 |
Loss |
-113 |
1 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the UNC-Greensboro Spartans (769) and the Samford Bulldogs (770). THE SITUATION: UNC-Greensboro (6-5) has lost two of their last three games after their 48-45 upset loss to Wofford last Saturday as a 4.5-point favorite. Samford (5-5) has lost two games in a row after their 73-68 loss at UT-Chattanooga as a 4.5-point underdog back on January 6th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs love to push the pace — they rank 9th in the nation with an adjusted tempo rate that produces 74.1 average possessions per game. The 71 possessions in their last game against the Moccasins are the lowest for them in any game all season. Four of their ten games have seen at least 80 possessions for both teams. Samford has played 21 of their last 27 games Over the Total after a loss to a Southern Conference rival — and they have played 18 of their last 21 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games . They are scoring 84.9 PPG while making 48.1% of their shots — and they are allowing their opponents to score 77.7 PPG. They return home where they are making 51.8% of their shots en route to scoring 97.5 PPG. They are allowing their guests to score 76.5 PPG. The Bulldogs have played 7 of their last 8 home games Over the Total again teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road. They also have played 26 of their last 35 home games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 11 home games Over the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 9 points. UNC-Greensboro has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss to a Southern Conference rival. They made only 34.5% of their shots which was the second-lowest field goal percentage in their last nine games. They also held Wofford to just a 29.6% field goal percentage which was by far their lowest opponent’s field goal percentage of the season. Not only has the Spartans played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after failing to score at least 60 points in their last game but they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after not scoring at least 50 points in their last game. They go back on the road where they are scoring 79.1 PPG while allowing their opponents to score 71.8 PPG. UNC-Greensboro is middle of the pack in averaging 71 possessions per game — but they are willing to engage with teams that like to play faster. The Spartans have played 8 straight games on the road Over the Total — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. UNC-Greensboro has also played 6 straight road games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 6 of their last 9 road games Over the Total when laying 6.5 to 9 points.
FINAL TAKE: Samford has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total with the number set in the 150s. 25* CBB Southern Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the UNC-Greensboro Spartans (769) and the Samford Bulldogs (770). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-13-21 |
Boise State v. Wyoming OVER 148.5 |
Top |
90-70 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Boise State Broncos (689) and the Wyoming Cowboys (690). THE SITUATION: Boise State (10-1) has won ten games in a row with their 83-60 win at Wyoming on Monday as a 7-point favorite. Wyoming (7-3) has lost two games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Broncos’ held the Cowboys to just a 38.9% field goal percentage which was the best defensive effort in their last four games. Boise State has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. The Broncos have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread win. Furthermore, Boise State has played 4 straight games Over the Total after a win by at least 20 points — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total when playing their second game in three days. The Broncos lead the Mountain West Conference by scoring 81.2 PPG. They have scored at least 80 points in their last two games — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least 80 points in two straight games. In their last three games, Boise State is scoring 86.8 PPG while making 48.4% of their shots. They are also scoring 82.3 PPG in their six games away from home. Wyoming has played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Cowboys have also played 4 straight games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Their 38.9% shooting percentage was their second-lowest mark all season. Wyoming has allowed their last five opponents to make 49.8% of their shots which has translated into 80.8 PPG. They stay at home for this rematch where they are making 46.1% of their shots to average 81.7 PPG. The Over is 5-2-1 in the Cowboys’ last 8 home games — and they have played 12 of their last 16 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Wyoming has played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total as an underdog — and Boise State has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as a favorite. 25* CBB Wednesday CBS Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Boise State Broncos (689) and the Wyoming Cowboys (690). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-08-21 |
South Alabama v. Coastal Carolina OVER 145.5 |
|
65-78 |
Loss |
-113 |
2 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the South Alabama Jaguars (843) and the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (844). THE SITUATION: South Alabama (7-4) has lost two of their last three games with their 62-49 loss at Georgia Southern last Saturday as a 2.5-point underdog. Coastal Carolina (7-2) saw their three-game winning streak end on Saturday with their 70-62 loss to Georgia State as a 3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Jaguars made only 34% of their shots on Saturday which was their lowest field goal percentage of the season. Yet they did hold the Eagles to 40.4% shooting which was tied for the best defensive effort in their last seven games. South Alabama has played 5 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Jaguars struggle on defense — they rank 321st in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. They are allowing their opponents to make 59.6% of their shots inside the arc which is 334th in the nation — and in their five games away from home, they are allowing teams to connect on 64.5% of their 2-point shots. South Alabama has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher at home. The Jaguars do make 49.1% of their shots which is resulting in a healthy 80.8 PPG. Coastal Carolina is scoring 90.7 PPG on 51.6% shooting from the field. Yet they only made 39.6% of their shots on Saturday in what was their worst shooting effort of the season. The Chanticleers have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. And while Coastal Carolina has played two straight Unders, they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight games Under the Total. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total when playing with five or six days of rest. This team is sixth in the nation by pulling down 39.6% of their missed shots — and they should get plenty of second-chance opportunities against this Jaguars team that is 294th in the nation by allowing their opponents to rebound 32.8% of their misses. The Chanticleers stay at home where they are 7-1 while scoring 92.4 PPG on 52.8% shooting. Coast Carolina has played 5 of their last 8 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying up to 6 points.
FINAL TAKE: South Alabama has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. 10* CBB Friday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the South Alabama Jaguars (843) and the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (844). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-07-21 |
Washington State v. California OVER 127.5 |
Top |
71-60 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (761) and the California Golden Bears (762). THE SITUATION: Washington State (8-1) lost their first game of the season on Saturday in their 86-82 loss at home to Arizona as an 8-point underdog. California (5-6) has lost their last two games with their 73-64 loss at Oregon State on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: There are two unusual circumstances to this situation that make a mathematical projection for the total in question. First, the Golden Bears will be without their top two scorers in Matt Bradley and Grant Anticevich. Bradley played only 13 minutes on Saturday before injuring his ankle that will keep him out tonight. Anticevich is still recovering from an appendectomy from last month. Their absences remove 28.1 PPG combined from their lineup. And they will be playing a Cougars team that is allowing only 60.8 PPG on 34.2% shooting from the field. But Washington State has played a very soft strength of schedule that is largely responsible for those gaudy defensive numbers. Ken Pomeroy’s metrics calculate that the Cougars’ strength of schedule has been the 309th easiest in the nation. The number is in the high-120s — and dropping. I think it is too low for this Pac-12 clash. California has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Bears have played 16 of their last 22 home games Over the Total when playing their second game in seven days. Losing Bradley and Anticevich is a two-sided coin because Cal also loses their defensive contributions. As it is, the Golden Bears are allowing their Pac-12 opponents to score 74.4 PPG while making 48.7% of their shots in five games. If Washington State approaches those numbers, this game flies Over. They return home where the players asked to make up for the baskets Bradley and Anticevich would be making will feel more comfortable. This team did make 51.2% of the shots against the Beavers. California has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 6 straight home games Over the Total as an underdog getting up to 6 points. Washington State has played 12 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. They have also played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning four or five of their last six-game. Now they go on the road for the first time all season — and I suspect this will impact their defensive numbers. The Cougars have played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total after playing at least three straight games at home. Additionally, Washington State has played 4 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 4 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage of over 60% at home (Cal is 4-1 at home).
FINAL TAKE: I value team trends for two reasons: (1) they can identify a personality of a team regarding how they respond to certain situations and (2) they can expose biases in how the market perceives certain teams. The latter is particularly in play here. The market tends to overestimate the value of the Washington State defense. That means a soft number for us — which is what I think were are experiencing tonight. Cal has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. I think they find enough scoring from their remaining roster to push this game into the 130s. 25* CBB Pac-12 Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (761) and the California Golden Bears (762). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-06-21 |
Wichita State v. Houston UNDER 135.5 |
Top |
63-70 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Wichita State Shockers (685) and the Houston Cougars (686). THE SITUATION: Wichita State (6-2) has won five games in a row after their 83-79 upset win at Ole Miss on Saturday as an 8-point underdog. Houston (8-1) rebounded from their first loss of the season at Tulsa by defeating SMU on the road on Sunday by a 74-60 score as a 2-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Shockers made 9 of their 20 shots from the behind the arc on Saturday against the Rebels despite going into that game with a 33% shooting percentage from downtown. Expect the Regression Gods to make an appearance tonight — especially against this Cougars team that is 13th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 24.5% shooting from 3-point land. Wichita State made 52% of their shots in that game in what was their best offensive performance of the season. But Wichita State has then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset victory. The Shockers have also played 6 straight games Under the Total after a win on the road. And while Wichita State has scored at least 81 points in three straight games, they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least 75 points in their last two games. The Shockers allowed Mississippi to make 41.5% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage they allowed in their last four games. Wichita State holds their opponents to 38.9% shooting — and their last five opponents are shooting just 36.0%. Now they go back on the road where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Shockers have also played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 135 to 139.5 range. Houston has played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on the road. The Cougars made 39.1% of their shots which was actually their best shooting mark in their last three games. Houston has only had preseason American Athletic Conference Player of the Year for four games this season — and now Caleb Mills has decided to transfer. Head coach Kelvin Sampson’s team is now, more than ever, defined by their play on defense. They are seventh in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank seventh in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 42.0%. They hold their opponents to only 55.0 PPG on their home court on 36.2% shooting. The Under is 21-5-1 in their last 27 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Houston has also played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: The Cougars have played 12 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 25* CBB American Athletic Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Wichita State Shockers (685) and the Houston Cougars (686). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-25-20 |
UCLA v. San Diego State UNDER 133 |
Top |
58-73 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (385) and the San Diego State Aztecs (386). THE SITUATION: UCLA (0-0) returns all five starters that were 19-12 before play was stopped in March due to COVID. San Diego State (30-2) lost three starters including All-American point guard Malachi Flynn who was drafted in the first round by Toronto from the group that was 30-2 before the stoppage.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I am cautious in these early college basketball games — especially on the opening day during a pandemic. But with the Bruins returning five starters from last year’s team, I am more comfortable relying on the statistics from last year. UCLA was more-and-more beginning to look like Mick Cronin’s teams at Cincinnati who played hard-nosed defense while crashing the glass on offense at a moderate (at best) pace. While the Bruins ranked 100th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, Cronin had his team playing as the 43rd best defensive team in adjusted efficiency in their final ten games. UCLA was not a great offensive team last season either — they ranked 206th in the nation with their 69.3 PPG scoring average while ranking 230th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 48.4%. They only made 32.2% of their 3-pointers as well which was 226th in the country. The Bruins were pulling down 34.5% of their missed shots which was 21st in the nation — but the Aztecs usually do a good job of protecting their defensive rim which is a foundation of the program that head coach Brian Dutcher has continued from being the long-time assistant here to Steve Fisher. San Diego State held their opponents to rebounding only 25.4% of their missed shot last year. UCLA has played 34 of their last 45 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 130-139.5 point range — and those numbers tightened to them playing 18 of their last 24 road games Under the Total with the number in the 130-134.5 point range. San Diego State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home. Additionally, the Aztecs have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played a decisive 21 of their last 26 home games Under the Total as an underdog at home. Dutcher gets back his 6’10 sophomore rim protector Nathan Mensah this season after he only played 13 games last year before going on the shelf with a blood clot issue. San Diego State held their opponents to just 56.3 PPG when Mensah was healthy — and that number rose to 61.3 PPG after his injury.
FINAL TAKE: The California programs had the least amount of time to practice given state COVID restrictions. I think this dynamic will exacerbate the weaknesses for these California teams early in the season — and that means that the UCLA and San Diego State offensive attacks are likely to be a step or two behind. 25* CBB CBS Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the UCLA Bruins (385) and the San Diego State Aztecs (386). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-11-20 |
Florida Atlantic v. Old Dominion UNDER 132.5 |
Top |
66-56 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the opening round of the Conference USA tournament between the Florida Atlantic Owls (675) and the Old Dominion Monarchs (676). THE SITUATION: FAU (16-15) has lost two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 94-82 loss at Marshall as a 5.5-point favorite last Wednesday. Old Dominion (13-18) has lost three of their last five games with their 72-63 loss at UAB as a 2-point favorite on last Saturday. The Conference USA tournament is being played on a neutral court at the Ford Center at The Star in Frisco, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Owls allowed the Thundering Herd to nail 53.4% of their shots which was the second-worst defensive effort of their season (and worst over their last fourteen games). FAU has then played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Owls have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss against a conference rival. Now FAU stays on the road where they are making just 40.1% of their shots which is resulting in only 65.6 PPG. The Under is 12-3-1 in their last 16 games played on a neutral court — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games on a neutral court as an underdog. The Owls have also played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total when playing their second game in eight days. And in their last 10 games when listed in the +/- 3 point range, FAU has played 8 of these games Under the Total. Old Dominion allowed the Blazers to make 51.1% of their shots which was the highest field goal percentage in their last four games. The Monarchs did hold UAB to just four offensive rebounds in that contest — and they have then played 10 of their last 12 games on the road Under the Total after not allowing more than 5 offensive rebounds in their last game. Old Dominion is 7th in the nation by limiting its opponents to rebounding just 21.7% of their missed shots. The Monarchs stay on the road where they are making only 39.6% of their shots which results in just 60.2 PPG. Old Dominion is 339th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 43.1% when playing away from home. The Monarchs have played 39 of their last 51 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have also played 21 of their last 26 games when playing on a neutral court as the favorite. Old Dominion has also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total in tournament action.
FINAL TAKE: The Monarchs are a strong defensive team that ranked 3rd in Conference USA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank 57th in the nation Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home. FAU has an effective field goal percentage of 46% when playing away from home which is just 279th in the country. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the opening round of the Conference USA tournament between the Florida Atlantic Owls (675) and the Old Dominion Monarchs (676). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-07-20 |
Murray State v. Belmont UNDER 141 |
Top |
75-76 |
Loss |
-107 |
0 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Ohio Valley Conference championship game between the Murray State Racers (751) and the Belmont Bruins (752). THE SITUATION: Murray State (23-8) reached the finals of this tournament with their 73-61 win over Austin Peay as a 1-point favorite yesterday. Belmont (25-7) joined them yesterday as they won their eleventh straight game with their 60-50 win over Eastern Kentucky as a 13.5-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral court in Evansville, Indiana.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Racers have played 9 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Murray State is playing excellent defense right now after holding the Governors to just 39.3% shooting. The Racers have held their last five opponents to just 39.6% shooting from the field which has resulted in only 61.0 PPG. Moving forward, Murray State has played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 12 games as an underdog, the Racers have played 9 of these games Under the Total. Furthermore, they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140 to 149.5 point range. Belmont has played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a victory over a conference opponent. They also have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Bruins made only 33.8% of their shots in that game — but they held Eastern Kentucky to just 29.9% shooting to win the game handily. Belmont has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a game where neither team scored more than 60 points. The Bruins have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a defensive struggle between the top two defenses in the Ohio Valley Conference in terms of Adjusted Efficiency. Murray State has played 7 of their last 8 games after fifteen games into the season Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and Belmont has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Ohio Valley Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Ohio Valley Conference championship game between the Murray State Racers (751) and the Belmont Bruins (752). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-07-20 |
Utah State v. San Diego State UNDER 133 |
Top |
59-56 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 5:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Mountain West Conference tournament championship game between the Utah State Aggies (741) and the San Diego State Aztecs (742). THE SITUATION: Utah State (25-8) has won two straight games as well as eight of their last nine games with their 89-82 win over Wyoming as a 15-point favorite yesterday. San Diego State (30-1) has won their last four games after suffering their first loss of the season with their 81-68 win over Boise State yesterday. This game will be played on a neutral court at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Aggies outlasted the Cowboys by shooting 56.1% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last eleven games. Utah State has then played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total on the road after a point spread win. The Aggies have also played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total after allowing at least 80 points in their last game. And while yesterday’s game flew Over the 136 point Total, Utah State has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game that finished Over the Total. San Diego State has played 25 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They also have played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 80 points. The Aztecs rank 10th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency this season. In their fifteen games away from home this year, San Diego State has held these opponents to just 39.9% shooting and only 60.9 PPG. The Aztecs have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total that were played on a neutral court. San Diego State has also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total in tournament action. And while Utah State makes 46.1% of their shots this season, the Aztecs have played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total against teams who shoot at least 455 from the field. The Aggies are outscoring their opponents by +12.7 PPG — but San Diego State has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road against teams who are outscoring their opponents by at least +8.0 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Utah State hopes to avenge an 80-68 loss to San Diego State back on February 1st — and they have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total when motivated by revenge. The Aggies have also played 6 straight games Under the Total when avenging a double-digit loss on the road. Expect a lower scoring game between the top two defensive teams (in terms of Adjusted Efficiency) in the conference). 25* CBB Mountain West Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Mountain West Conference tournament championship game between the Utah State Aggies (741) and the San Diego State Aztecs (742). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-06-20 |
VCU v. Davidson UNDER 137 |
Top |
65-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Virginia Commonwealth Rams (861) and the Davidson Wildcats (862). THE SITUATION: VCU (18-12) has lost six of their last seven games with their 80-77 loss at home to Duquesne on Wednesday as a 5.5-point favorite. Davidson (15-14) has lost their last two contests after their 80-63 loss at Richmond on Wednesday as a 5.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: VCU has seen the Under go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after a point spread setback. They have also played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a game where at least 155 combined points were scored
|
03-05-20 |
UMKC v. Utah Valley OVER 136 |
Top |
61-51 |
Loss |
-109 |
4 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Missouri-Kansas City Kangaroos (679) and the Utah Valley State Wolverines (680). THE SITUATION: UMKC (15-14) has won three games in a row with their 80-58 win over Chicago State last Saturday as a 20-point favorite. Utah Valley State (11-18) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Wednesday in a 73-66 loss at Cal-Baptist where they were 6-point underdogs.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Kansas City has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 24 of their last 33 road games Over the Total after a point spread loss. And while the Kangaroos have covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. UMKC is hot with its shooting right now as they are making 48.5% of their shots over their last five contests. Now they go back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total. The Kangaroos have also played 8 of their last 10 games on the road Over the Total as an underdog. Utah Valley State made only 43.9% of their shots last week in their loss to Cal-Baptist — that was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. The Wolverines have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. And while Utah Valley State has lost five of their last seven games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after losing five or six of their last seven contests. Over their last five games, they are still making 49.8% of their shots which has resulted in them averaging 76.8 PPG. They have also allowed 75.0 PPG over those last five games. They return home where they are scoring 74.9 PPG while allowing their opponents to average 70.4 PPG. Hosting this Kangaroos team will help their shooting as UMKC is 285th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 53.8% when they are playing on the road. Utah Valley State has played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Wolverines have also played 13 of their last 17 home games Over the Total as a favorite or pick ‘em.
FINAL TAKE: Utah Valley State makes only 30.3% of their shots from behind the arc — but the Kangaroos have played 14 of their last 17 games Ove the Total against opponents who do not shoot better than 31% from behind the 3-point line. 25* CBB Western Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Missouri-Kansas City Kangaroos (679) and the Utah Valley State Wolverines (680). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-04-20 |
Texas-San Antonio v. Old Dominion OVER 143 |
Top |
59-84 |
Push |
0 |
2 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Texas-San Antonio Road Runners (801) and the Old Dominion Monarchs (802). THE SITUATION: UTSA (13-16) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 66-59 victory over UAB as a 3-point favorite. Old Dominion (12-17) also ended their two-game losing streak when they defeated Florida Atlantic on Sunday by an 85-80 score as a 5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: UTSA has played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a victory at home against a conference rival. The Roadrunners have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, UTSA has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Toal after holding their last opponent to no more than 60 points — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. The Roadrunners held the Blazers to just 36.1% shooting — but now they go back on the road where they allow their home hosts to make 46.5% of their shots which results in them scoring 82.9 PPG. Defense is an issue for this team as they rank 290th in the Adjusted Defensive Efficiency along with just 11th in conference play. UTSA has played 7 straight games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 6 straight road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Roadrunners have played 11 of their last 15 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 6 points. UTSA is a solid offensive team that scores 77.8 PPG while averaging 65 shots per game along with 10 made 3-pointers per contest. Old Dominion has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams who score at least 77 PPG. The Monarchs have all played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams who average at least 62 shots per game — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games after fifteen games into the season against teams who make at least 8 shots from behind the arc per game. Old Dominion committed only eight personal fouls in their win over the Owls on Sunday with FAU getting whistled for 19 personal fouls — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after being called for at least 10 personal fouls than their opponent in their last game. The Monarchs have also played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight games against Conference USA foes. Now this team stays at home where they are 9-4 this season. Old Dominion has played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total against teams who are not winning more than 40% on the road. The Monarchs have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams who are winning 40-49% of their games this season.
FINAL TAKE: Old Dominion will be looking to avenge an 85-81 loss at home to UTSA back on February 6th — and the Monarchs have played 18 of their last 21 home games when playing with revenge. 25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Texas-San Antonio Road Runners (801) and the Old Dominion Monarchs (802). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-04-20 |
Xavier v. Providence UNDER 133 |
|
74-80 |
Loss |
-109 |
1 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Xavier Musketeers (741) and the Providence Friars (742). THE SITUATION: Xavier (19-10) has won two straight games as well as six of their last eight contests with their 66-63 upset win at Georgetown as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Providence (17-12) has won their last four games with their 58-54 win at Villanova as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 5-0-1 in the Musketeers last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a victory over a Big East rival. Xavier has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win where they did not cover the point spread. The Musketeers stay on the road where they are limiting their opponents to just 39.4% shooting from the field which results in them giving up only 68.1 PPG by their home hosts. Xavier also makes 43.7% of their shots away from home which is producing just 69.2 PPG. The Under is 4-1-1 in the Musketeers’ last 6 games on the road — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher on their home court. Xavier has also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to 6 points. Providence has paled 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after pulling off an upset against a conference foe as an underdog getting at least 6 points — and this includes them playing five straight Unders in that situation. The Friars have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Now this team returns home where they are 11-3 while holding their guests to just 39.1% shooting which results in these visitors scoring only 62.0 PPG. Providence ranks 13th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing at home. The Friars have played 21 of their last 28 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They also have played 15 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when playing just their second game in seven days. Additionally, Providence has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 6 points. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%, the Friars have played 5 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Providence will be looking to avenge a 64-58 loss at Xavier back on February 8th — and they have played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 10* CBB Xavier-Providence FS1-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Xavier Musketeers (741) and the Providence Friars (742). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-02-20 |
Idaho State v. Weber State OVER 145 |
Top |
78-70 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Idaho State Bengals (865) and the Weber State Wildcats (866). THE SITUATION: Idaho State (6-20) has lost twelve straight games after their 89-76 loss at home to Portland State as a 4-point underdog last Thursday. Weber State (11-17) has lost three of their last four games after their 89-83 upset loss to Portland State as a 1-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bengals have played 15 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss by double-digits. Idaho State has also played 7 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Bengals have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after losing at least two in a row — and they have played 18 of their last 22 games Over the Total after losing at least fifteen of their last twenty games. Now this team goes back on the road where they are allowing their home hosts to nail 50.7% of their shots which has produced 74.5 PPG. Idaho State has played 6 straight road games Over the Total — and they have played 19 of their last 26 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Bengals have played 12 of their last 13 games Over the Total as an underdog. Weber State has played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and this includes them playing four straight Overs after a victory. Furthermore, the Wildcats have played 4 straight games Over the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. Weber State stays at home where they are scoring 80.8 PPG on 49.4% shooting from the field. The Wildcats have played 5 straight home games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40% on the road. Furthermore, the Over is 10-4-1 in Weber State’s last 15 games against teams with a winning percentage no better than 40% overall.
FINAL TAKE: Idaho State is just 318th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are 347th in the country by allowing their opponents to make 56.0% of their shots inside the arc. The Bengals have a defensive field goal percentage of 48.3% — and the Wildcats have played 15 of their last 20 home games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 45% or higher. Weber State is 3rd in the Big Sky Conference with a 53.3% of their shots inside the arc — they should score plenty of 2-pointers against this Idaho State team. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Idaho State Bengals (865) and the Weber State Wildcats (866). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-29-20 |
Michigan State v. Maryland UNDER 138 |
Top |
78-66 |
Loss |
-109 |
9 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Michigan State Spartans (705) and the Maryland Terrapins (706). THE SITUATION: Michigan State (19-9) has won two straight games with their 78-70 win at home over Iowa as a 9.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Maryland (23-5) has won ten of their last eleven contests with their 74-73 win at Minnesota as a 1-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Spartans have seen the Under go a decisive 39-16-3 in their last 58 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a victory over a Big Ten rival. Michigan State has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Now Sparty goes back on the road where they are just 8-6 this season while making only 43.6% of their shots which is translating into just 70.2 PPG. Michigan State sees their effective field goal percentage of 53.9% drop to a 50.3% mark when they are playing away from their home at the Breslin Center in East Lansing — that ranks 91st in the nation. But the Spartans’ outstanding defense does travel as they hold their home hosts to just 38.7% shooting which results in only 67.6 PPG. The Under is 14-6-1 in their last 21 games on the road — and the Under is also 18-7-1 in their last 26 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, the Under is 22-8-1 in Michigan State’s last 31 games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, in the Spartans’ last 13 games in expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range, Michigan State has seen 11 of these games finish Under the Total. Maryland allowed the Golden Gophers to make 45.6% of their shots on Wednesday which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last eight contests. The Terrapins have a bad habit of starting slowly which requires them to dig themselves out of big holes — they had to rally from a 16-point halftime deficit to defeat Minnesota. The Terrapins average only 33.4 points in the first half this season with that number dropping to 31.8 points in the first 20 minutes in conference games. They are making only 43% of their shots at home with an effective field goal percentage of 49.1% which ranks 243rd in the nation. Overall, their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency on the season ranks 35th in the nation — but that number plummets to 73rd in the country when they are playing on their home court in College Park. But Maryland holds their guests to just 36.7% shooting which results in a mere 59.8 PPG when they are playing at home. The Terrapins have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total on their home court — and they have played 11 of their last 17 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 130s. Maryland has also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These are two of the best defensive teams in the nation with the Spartans and Terrapins ranking 13th and 12th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency respectively. Maryland holds their opponents to just 39.1% shooting — and Sparty has played 8 straight games Under the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 42% or less. And while Michigan State out-rebounds their opponents by +7.6 RPG, the Terrapins have played 6 straight home games Under the Total against opponents who out-rebound their opponents by at least +7.0 RPG. 25* CBB Big Ten Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Michigan State Spartans (705) and the Maryland Terrapins (706). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-27-20 |
Arizona v. USC UNDER 140 |
Top |
48-57 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Wildcats (651) and the USC Trojans (652). THE SITUATION: Arizona (19-8) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 73-72 upset loss at home to Oregon as a 5.5-point favorite. USC (19-9) has lost their last two games with their 75-69 loss at Utah as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats allowed the Ducks to shoot 42.6% from the field which was the best shooting effort from an opponent in their last four games. Arizona should tighten up on defense — they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a home favorite. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a narrow loss by 6 points or less. The Wildcats rank 21st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and that mark rises to them being the 5th best team in the nation when playing on the road in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Arizona holds their home hosts to just 39.8% shooting which is resulting in them allowing only 67.7 PPG in their eleven road games. The Wildcats make only 28.2% of their 3-pointers on the road which is 313rd in the nation — and their effective field goal percentage of 44.3% on the road ranks 318th. Arizona has played 4 of there last 5 road games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 60% of their games on their home court. Additionally, the Wildcats have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as the favorite. USC has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Trojans have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after a point spread defeat. USC allowed the Utes to make 48.2% of their shots on Sunday which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last six games. The Trojans have the 40th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and that ranking has improved to 31st best in the country in that metric over their last ten games. USC has held their last five opponents to just 37.6% shooting from the field and now they return home after playing their last two games on the road. The Trojans have played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road. USC is 11-2 at home while holding their guests to scoring 64.5 PPG on 39.5% shooting from the field. But USC only makes 43.2% of their shots at home given their 47.5% shooting percentage inside the arc which is 285th in the nation. The Under is 39-18-1 in the Trojans’ last 58 home games — and they have played 7 storage home games Under the Total in February. Furthermore, the Trojans have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher.
FINAL TAKE: USC will be looking to avenge an 85-80 loss at Arizona back on February 6th. The Trojans have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 75 points. 25* CBB Thursday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Arizona Wildcats (651) and the USC Trojans (652). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-26-20 |
LSU v. Florida OVER 146.5 |
|
66-81 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the LSU Tigers (841) and the Florida Gators (842). THE SITUATION: LSU (19-8) snapped their two-game losing streak on Saturday with their 86-80 win at South Carolina as a pick ‘em. Florida (17-10) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 65-59 loss at Kentucky where they were 5-point underdogs.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Tigers held the Gamecocks to just 37.3% shooting from the field in what was the best defensive effort in their last six games. But the Over is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road after a victory. Additionally, the Over is also 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a point spread win. LSU has also played 21 of their last 28 road games Over the Total after a game where at least 165 combined points were scored. The Tigers stay on the road where they are 6-6 while averaging 82.3 PPG but allowing 80.6 PPG in their twelve contests. LSU has played 36 of their last 52 road games Over the Total which includes them playing eight of the last nine games on the road Over the Total. They have also played 20 of their last 26 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court — and the Over is 45-19-1 in their last 65 road games when they are the underdog. The Tigers rank 2nd in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they have scored at least 76 points in six straight contests. LSU has then played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after scoring at least 75 points four straight games. Florida has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Gators have also played 8 of their last 9 home games Over the Total after a game where neither team scored more than 65 points. They return home where they are 10-3 this season while averaging 75.4 PPG. Florida has paled 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on their home court. Additionally, the Gators have played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Florida holds their opponents to just 41.5% shooting from the field — but LSU has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams with a defensive field goal percentage of 42% or less. 10* CBB LSU-Florida ESPN2 O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the LSU Tigers (841) and the Florida Gators (842). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-24-20 |
Oklahoma State v. Kansas OVER 134.5 |
Top |
58-83 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oklahoma State Cowboys (877) and the Kansas Jayhawks (878). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (14-13) has won three of their last four games after their 83-66 win over Oklahoma on Saturday as a 1.5-point favorite. Kansas (24-3) has won twelve straight games with their 64-61 upset win at Baylor as a 1-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the total after a straight-up win. Oklahoma State has also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight games against fellow Big 12 opponents. Now this team goes back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. They also have played 6 of tiger last 9 road games as a double-digit underdog. The Cowboys will be challenged by the outstanding defense that this Jayhawks team plays. Kansas is limiting their opponents to averaging just 60.7 PPG — but Oklahoma State has played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against opponents who do not allow more than 64 PPG. The Cowboys rank 98th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency this season — but they have the 46th best Adjusted Offensive Efficiency mark over their last ten games. Kansas has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a narrow victory by 3 points or less — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. And while the Jayhawks victory over the Bears fell below the 131 point total, they have then played 15 of their last 21 home games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Kansas has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where both teams did not score more than 65 points. Kansas returns home where they are 12-1 this season while making 49.6% of their shots which is resulting in 78.7 PPG. The Jayhawks have the 9th best offense in the nation based on Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they have the 2nd highest Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on their home court. Kansas makes 58.3% of their shots inside the arc when playing at home which is the 11th best mark in the country. Oklahoma State is vulnerable on the defensive end of the court as they rank 9th in the Big 12 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they allow their home hosts to shoot 50% of their shots inside the arc on the road which is the 138th worst mark in the nation. The Over is 19-6-1 in their last 26 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, the Jayhawks have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total as a favorite — and they have played 18 of their last 28 home games Over the Total as a double-digit favorite. Kansas has also played 8 of their last 12 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 130 to 139.5 point range. And while the Cowboys hold their opponents to 40% shooting this season, the Jayhawks have played 9 of their last 11 home games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against opponents who do not allow their opponents to shoot better than 40% from the field.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas won the first meeting between these two teams back on January 27th by a 65-50 score. Oklahoma State has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when avenging a double-digit loss on their home court. 25* CBB Big Monday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Oklahoma State Cowboys (877) and the Kansas Jayhawks (878). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-23-20 |
Stanford v. Washington State UNDER 135 |
Top |
75-57 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Stanford Cardinal (865) and the Washington State Cougars (866). THE SITUATION: Stanford (17-9) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 72-64 upset win at Washington as a 2.5-point underdog on Thursday. Washington State (14-13) has lost three straight games with their 66-57 upset loss to California as a 6.5-point favorite on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cardinal has seen the Under go 8-3-2 in their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Stanford has also played 8 of their last 11 games after an upset loss. The Cardinal is one of the best defensive teams in the nation as they rank 6th in the country in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also rank 7th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. They hold their hosts to just 42% shooting from inside the arc which helps them post an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 42.5% — both those numbers are 3rd best in the nation for teams playing on the road. The Under is 9-4-2 in Stanford’s last 15 games on the road — and the Under is also 9-4-1 in their last 14 road games against teams with a winning percentage of 60% or better when playing at home. Furthermore, the Under is 3-0-1 in the Cardinal’s last 4 road games as a favorite — and they have also seen the Under go 8-3-1 in their last 12 games as a favorite. Washington State has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Cougars have played 4 straight games Under the Total after losing two in a row — and they have played a decisive 36 of their last 51 games at home Under the Total after losing five or six of their last seven contests. They made only 29.8% of their shots against the Golden Bears after shooting just 28.6% from the field in their previous game against USC. Over their last five games, Washington State is shooting just 35.8% which has resulted in only 63.8 PPG. They stay at home where they are making just 40.9% of their shots while ranking 302nd in the nation with a 46.4% field goal percentage inside the arc. Overall, the Cougars have an effective field goal percentage of 46.6% when playing at home which is the 313th lowest mark in the nation. Moving forward, the Cougars have played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: To make matters worse, they may be without their point guard Isaac Bonton who is questionable with a leg injury. Boston leads the team in touches when he is on the court while ranking second in shots — so the Washington State offense will likely suffer if he is not able to play or if he is hindered with his leg. 25* CBB Sunday ESPNU Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Stanford Cardinal (865) and the Washington State Cougars (866). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-22-20 |
Southern Utah v. Weber State OVER 136 |
Top |
71-82 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between Southern Utah Thundercats (771) and the Weber State Wildcats (772). THE SITUATION: Southern Utah (14-12) has lost three straight games after their 68-66 loss at Northern Colorado as a 7-point underdog on Thursday. Weber State (10-16) has lost their last three games with their 77-63 loss at Montana State as a 5-point underdog last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Thunderbirds have played 7 of their last 10 games over the total after a loss on the road by 3 points or less. They also have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Southern Utah has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after losing three straight games to Big Sky opponents. Now the Thunderbirds go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Southern Utah has not made more than three shots from behind the arc in two straight games — but they have then played 22 of their last 30 games Over the Total after failing to make more than three shots from 3-point range in two straight games. They now face a Wildcats team that is 328th in the nation by allowing their opponents to nail 37.3% of their shots from downtown. Weber State allows their opponents to make 45.1% of their shots this season — and the Thunderbirds have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams who allow their opponents to make at least 45% of their shots. Southern Utah has also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total against teams who are not winning more than 40% of their games. Weber State has played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a point spread setback. The Wildcats have also played 6 straight games Over the Total after losing two straight games. They return home where they are 7-4 while making 49.4% of their shots which is generating 80.5 PPG. Weber State has played 7 of their last 9 home games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total as an underdog. The Wildcats’ play on the defensive end of the court has waned as of late. They have allowed their last five opponents to make 47.9% of their shots which has resulted in them averaging 71.0 PPG.
FINAL TAKE: Southern Utah will be looking to avenge a 75-65 upset loss at home to Weber State back on January 30th. The Thunderbirds have played 22 of their last 33 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 75 points — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. 25* CBB Big Sky Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between Southern Utah Thundercats (771) and the Weber State Wildcats (772). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-19-20 |
Kansas State v. Texas Tech OVER 128.5 |
Top |
62-69 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas State Wildcats (839) and the Texas Tech Red Raiders (840). THE SITUATION: Kansas State (9-16) has lost five straight games with their 68-57 loss at TCU on Saturday as a 3-point underdog. Texas Tech (16-9) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Saturday with their 73-70 upset loss at Oklahoma State as a 3-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats held the Horned Frogs to just 44.2% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last four games. Kansas State has played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Wildcats stay on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Kansas State has played 19 of their last 26 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 9.5 to 12 points. The Wildcats have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog overall. And in their last 15 games with the Total set at no higher than 129.5, Kansas State has played 12 of these games Over the Total. Texas Tech has splayed 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a loss by three points or less — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Red Raiders return home where they are 12-2 this season while making 48.1% of their shots which has generated 76.6 PPG. Texas Tech has played 6 straight home games Over the Total with the number set no higher than 129.5. They also have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after fifteen games into the season against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas State will be looking to avenge a 77-63 loss at home to Texas Tech back on January 14th — and the Wildcats have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss at home. 25* CBB Wednesday ESPN2 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas State Wildcats (839) and the Texas Tech Red Raiders (840). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-18-20 |
Northwestern v. Maryland UNDER 130.5 |
|
67-76 |
Loss |
-108 |
1 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Northwestern Wildcats (625) and the Maryland Terrapins (626). THE SITUATION: Northwestern (6-18) has lost nine straight games with their 77-61 loss at Penn State as a 12-point underdog on Saturday. Maryland (21-4) has won their last eight games with their 67-60 upset win at Michigan State on Saturday as a 6.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Terrapins have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total at home after a point spread victory. Maryland defeated the Spartans despite allowing them to make 41.8% of their shots which was the highest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games. The Terrapins are 5th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They return home where they are 14-0 wheel holding their opponents to just 59.3 PPG on 36.2% shooting. Maryland has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 21 of their last 29 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Northwestern has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 14 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. The Wildcats have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Northwestern lost that game against the Nittany Lions despite shooting 46.6% from the field which was the highest field goal percentage in their last six games. The Wildcats are last in the Big Ten in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. They are still shooting just 39.6% from the field in their last five games which has generated only 59.2 PPG. The Under is 15-7-1 in their last 23 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Wildcats have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Northwestern shoots only 40.8% in Big Ten play which has resulted in just 61.6 PPG. The Wildcats have played 24 of their last 35 games Under the Total in conference play. Maryland is making only 40.2% of their shots on conference play — but they are holding their opponents to just 39.5% shooting in Big Ten play. The Terrapins have played 22 of their las 34 games Under the Total in conference play. 10* CBB Tuesday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Northwestern Wildcats (625) and the Maryland Terrapins (626). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|