09-03-21 |
Michigan State v. Northwestern -3 |
Top |
38-21 |
Loss |
-110 |
17 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Northwestern Wildcats (154) minus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (153). THE SITUATION: Northwestern (0-0) returns eight starters from the team that finished 7-2 last season with a 35-19 win over Auburn in the Citrus Bowl. Michigan State (0-0) has 16 starters back from their team that finished 2-5.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Once again, bettors appear to be undervaluing the program that head coach Pat Fitzgerald has built in Evanston. In his sixteenth year with the program, Fitzgerald led a Wildcats team to finish in the top 25 for the fourth time since 2015 last year after playing for the Big Ten Championship where they lost to Ohio State by a 22-10 score. Now this program is laying only a field goal to a rebuilding Michigan State team? Fitzgerald can make the argument that he has assembled a coaching staff that gets the most out of their talent in the conference (and the nation?). And this new era of the transfer portal helps a program like Northwestern that cannot hang with the blue bloods in attracting blue-chippers — but now becomes attractive for the talent who needs the spotlight with a starting assignment with a coaching staff that just sent saw two players drafted in the first round in the NFL draft. The Wildcats’ defense has always been fundamentally sound under Fitzgerald — and they were 5th in the nation last year by allowing only 15.9 PPG. This year’s defense is as athletic as any of the units in the Fitzgerald tenure — and the defensive line may be the best yet in his sixteen years. They bring back defensive end Samdup Miller who opted out last year. Safety Brandon Joseph is an All-American — and they have a breakout star in cornerback Cameron Mitchell. A Northwestern program may have been in a better position to navigate COVID-ball last year — but a full offseason can only help a program that thrives when they can coach up their players. Fitzgerald brought in former South Carolina Ryan Hilinski to compete for the starting QB job. The fact that fifth-year senior Hunter Johnson has been named the starting QB suggests to me that the veteran has earned the spot. Johnson is a former five-star recruit that transferred to the program from Clemson — and while he has yet to achieve his vast potential, he has now been under Fitzgerald’s mentorship for three years (including a pandemic). This is a team that has covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home — and they are a dominant 33-16-3 ATS in their last 52 games in conference play under Fitzgerald. I am optimistic about what Michigan State can do under second-year head coach Mel Tucker. I like the direction — but I think the betting market is mistaking long-term optimism with short-term rationality. Sparty has endured a decline in talent for years under the bloat of Mike Dantonio for years — especially on the offensive line. The recruiting war arms race in the Big Ten East with Michigan and Penn State investing furiously to try to catch up to Ohio State left Sparty far behind while Dantonio preached an outdated model while fueling all his attentions on his in-state rival. The paradigm where Michigan State played Alabama in the BCS college football playoff in 2016 has long since been transformed. It will take longer than a year for Tucker to rebuild this program. He is trying to ride transfer roulette wheel for this year — and he may have improved the program he inherited. More than 20 players left the program in the offseason but he brought in more than 20. Whoo-hoo! I mean, guys aren’t leaving starting jobs at elite programs. The Michigan State defense has declined — they allowed 35.1 PPG last year (100th FBS and the worst mark in program history) and lost the best player on all three levels. I think second-year defensive coordinator Scottie Hazelton is great who will benefit from a full year of teaching — but he can only do so much. The talent on offense may not yet fit the scheme of second year offensive coordinator Jay Johnson who brought 21st century principles with him when he came over with Tucker from Colorado. The rushing attack has ranked 122nd, 113th, and 114th in the nation in the last three seasons. Tucker brought in Temple QB Anthony Russo as a graduate transfer — but he agrees with all of us in wondering if that was an upgrade over sophomore Payton Thorne who made one start last year. Tucker has yet to name a starter as of my last deep dive — but it doesn’t matter, let him start the turnover machine from Temple. Or not. There is simply a talent deficit still between these two teams. Michigan State has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road in the opening two weeks of the season. Additionally, the Spartans have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games in Big Ten play.
FINAL TAKE: The icing on the cake is that Northwestern will be motivated to avenge a 29-20 upset loss in East Lansing against Sparty as a 13.5-point favorite. The Wildcats fell behind by a 17-0 score before scoring 20 unanswered points — but turnovers in the fourth quarter led to their 9-point loss. The grind of the Big Ten — where emotions at home can play a big role. Northwestern has that emotional edge this time around — something that Fitzgerald has been pounding into his team since August practices started. 25* CFB Friday ESPN Game of the Month with the Northwestern Wildcats (154) minus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (153). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-02-21 |
Boise State +6 v. Central Florida |
Top |
31-36 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (137) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (138). THE SITUATION: Boise State (0-0) returns 17 starters from the team that finished 5-2 after a 34-20 loss to San Jose State in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. Central Florida (0-0) has 17 starters back from their team that ended the season with a 6-4 record after a 49-23 loss to BYU in the Boca Raton Bowl.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Boise State is under new management after Bryan Harsin took the head coaching job at Boise State. The Broncos hired a former player and defensive coordinator in Andy Avalos to rework their defense that allowed 27.1 PPG last season. Those were the most points that Boise State surrendered since 1998. Avalos was previously the defensive coordinator at Oregon. He should improve a defense that allowed at least 30 points in four of their seven games last year. It was a lost season for the Broncos that started on the wrong foot when COVID led to them canceling their entire spring practice schedule. The team was hit hard by COVID and injuries during the regular season with both their highly-touted quarterbacks, Hank Bachmeier and Jack Sears, missing time. Sears, a former USC transfer, only played one game. Bachmeier started four games last season including the end of the season despite not being 100%. He has been tabbed the starter for this game. He displayed a big upside in his freshman season as one of the biggest recruits in the history of the program by averaging 8.6 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt. He has two returning starters at wide receiver in seniors Khalil Shakir and C.T. Thomas who have combined for 248 receptions and 24 touchdown catches in their career. The Boise State offense has a new offensive coordinator in Tim Plough who brings his Air Raid attack to Boise from UC-Davis. In his time as the Aggies' offensive coordinator, they averaged just 23 seconds between plays — so except a very fast pace. The Broncos should carve up a suspect Knights pass defense that was 110th in the nation last year by allowing 8.5 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt. Central Florida’s best defensive back last season was free safety Richie Grant who was drafted by the Atlanta Falcons. The Knights will miss the three-time All-Conference player. Boise State opted out from playing in a bowl game — so this nationally televised game is important for them to re-establish themselves on the national stage. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the first half of the season. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 range. Central Florida also has a new coach in Gus Malzahn — the guy that Boise State’s previous coach is replacing at Auburn. He replaces Josh Heupel who took the Tennessee head coaching job. While the Knights bring back 17 starters, they lost talent on both sides of the ball to the NFL — and this is not a program that simply reloads. UCF lost their top two running backs in Greg McRae and Otis Anderson and their leading receiver in Marlon Williams who had five 100-yards receiving games last year. Expectations are high for the Knights with junior Dillon Gabriel under center — but he is adjusted to the new Malzahn system on offense. It is the Knights’ defense that will likely be their downfall in this game. They allowed their opponents to average +86 YPG above their season average last year — 123rd in the nation. They allowed at least 30 points six times. UCF benefited from a +12 net turnover margin last year that made up for their defense that allowed 491.8 total YPG (123rd in the FBS). The Knights cannot rely on having the fifth-best net turnover margin once again this season. This shapes up to be a shootout — but that usually does not bode well for this football team. Central Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games with the Total set at 63 or higher — and they failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home with the Total at 63 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Boise State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 road games when an underdog getting up to 7 points. Central Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home when favored. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Game of the Month with the Boise State Broncos (137) plus the points versus the Central Florida Knights (138). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-28-21 |
Nebraska -6.5 v. Illinois |
Top |
22-30 |
Loss |
-109 |
6 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Nebraska Cornhuskers (299) minus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (300). THE SITUATION: Nebraska (0-0) returns 17 starters from the team that settled for a 3-5 record in a COVID-shortened season last year. Illinois (0-0) begins the Bret Bielema head coaching era after Lovie Smith was sacked before the final game of the 2020 season where they finished 2-6.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CORNHUSKERS MINUS THE POINTS: If fourth-year head coach Scott Frost was not on the hot seat after posting a 12-20 record in his first three seasons at his alma mater in Lincoln, the NCAA violations issued against the football program under his watch certainly raised the stakes this season for Frost with another album as athletic director in Trev Alberts who did not hire him. After four straight losing seasons, Frost must deliver — and the schedule gets tougher in the second half of the season with dates Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Iowa. This is a must-win situation for the Cornhuskers. Frost has problems — players are transferring and his recruitment has waned. But 17 starters return from a group that outgained their opponents last season by +5 net Yards-Per-Game. Nebraska was just 1-4 in close games decided by one possession. Turning the ball over in 18.95% of their possessions on offense was a killer. Yet there is stability on offense under senior quarterback Adrian Martinez. While the dual-threat QB is not likely to meet the expectations surrounding his early hype, he is a veteran who completed 71.5% of his passes last season while running for another 521 yards with his 5.7 Yards-Per-Carry average. With a wide receiving corps that is the most talented in the Frost era, this should be a better offensive team. With USC transfer Markese Stepp and a handful of talented freshmen at running back, someone should step up. The defense has 90% of their production return led by five “super seniors” playing in their sixth season. The Cornhuskers have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. Scott Frost’s teams at Nebraska and Central Florida have covered the point spread in 5 of their 8 road games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. Lovie Smith did not leave the cupboard bare for Bielema at Illinois — in fact, I think Smith was moving this program in the right direction before COVID put a monkey wrench in many coaches' plans last season (especially the ones who are effective teachers who rely on practices). In comes Bielema who bolted from his success at Wisconsin for the money in the SEC where he failed to elevate the Arkansas program. He returns to Big Ten country where he is moving from a spread offense to probably more of a power running game. The defense moves from a 4-3 to a 3-4 — and these system changes on both sides of the ball can see transition problems in these early games. As it is, Bielema’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games in the opening two weeks of the season. His quarterback is sixth-year senior Brandon Peters who transferred from Michigan a few years ago when the writing was on the wall that he would not get the starting job after a bad bowl game sealed his fate. The inconsistent QB has averaged only 144.6 passing YPG with the Illini. He led an offense last year that ranked 119th in the FBS in Expected Points Added per Pass Attempt — and the returning wide receiving corps lacks a clear number one option. The Illini defense has finished 12th or worse in total yardage in four of the last five seasons under a former NFL head coach whose defensive acumen propelled the Chicago Bears to reach the Super Bowl with a defense that carried Rex Grossman at QB. Defensive coordinator Ryan Walters, previously the coordinator of the Missouri defense the last six seasons, is not an upgrade. Bielema is in a rebuild — so he has time. His teams have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their 4 home games when an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Illinois has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home where they do not retain a great home edge — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 37 home games as a dog getting up to 7 points. The Illini have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in August.
FINAL TAKE: If the stakes were not high enough for Nebraska, they will have revenge on their mind after getting upset by Illinois last year at home by a 41-23 score as a 16-point underdog on November 21st. Good bulletin board material for Frost in a game Bielema had no connection with. 25* CFB Television Game of the Month is with the Nebraska Cornhuskers (299) minus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini (300). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-11-21 |
Ohio State v. Alabama -7 |
Top |
24-52 |
Win
|
100 |
71 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (500) minus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (499) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Alabama (12-0) defeated Notre Dame by a 31-14 score on New Year’s Day in the Rose Bowl College Football Semifinals as an 18.5-point favorite. Ohio State (7-0) upset Clemson as a 7-point favorite later that night in the Sugar Bowl to earn the right to play for the National Championship. This game will be played on a neutral field at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: We had the Buckeyes in their revenge opportunity defeat a Tigers team that beat them in last year’s Semifinals by a 29-23 score. I loved Ohio State in that situation as an underdog — but I hate this spot for them now. Head coach Ryan Day and his team just triumphed against their proverbial white whale — but the job is not done. I worry about a big emotional letdown for this team. As it is, the Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least 20 points. The continued COVID situation for Ohio State adds a very troubling complication for this team. Remember, it was the surprise announcement of a slew of Buckeyes’ players dealing with COVID that contributed to their sluggish effort in the Big Ten Championship Game against Northwestern. Fields struggled without his top weapons in that game — and he may be slowed in this game with the ribs injury he suffered against Clemson. If he is not 100%, the Buckeyes are in trouble. I was unwilling to make a call on the Total for this game without knowing if there is a position group that will not be available to play in this game — if an offensive position group is out, then that helps the Under; if a defensive position group is out, then it helps the Over. Either way, if Ohio State goes into this game undermanned, it could be devastating. Even if everyone takes the field on Monday, the practice and preparation for this team have been less than ideal. Alabama will be primed and ready for this game. Head coach Nick Saban’s team comes into this contest having not covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last game. Additionally, the Tide have covered the point spread in 44 of their last 67 games after not covering the point spread in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in a dominant 23 of their last 28 games after winning but not covering the point spread in their last two games. This Alabama team is simply overwhelming on offense — they are scoring 48.2 PPG while averaging 535.6 total YPG. And the Buckeyes are vulnerable in their passing game — especially on the edges with what is still a young defensive backfield with only seven games under their belts this season. Ohio State is 116th in the nation by allowing 281.1 passing YPG — and the QB Mac Jones leads a quick-strike attack that is fifth in the nation by averaging 349.3 passing YPG. The rich might get richer as well with the possibility that wide receiver Jaylen Waddle may be able to return to action in this game after being injured for months. Alabama has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games on a neutral field favored by 7.5 to 14 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams from the SEC. Alabama has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against Big Ten foes. 25* CFB National Championship *A-List* Special with the Alabama Crimson Tide (500) minus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (499). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-11-21 |
Ohio State v. Alabama OVER 74.5 |
Top |
24-52 |
Win
|
100 |
70 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (499) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (500) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (7-0) upset Clemson as a 7-point favorite later that night in the Sugar Bowl to earn the right to play for the National Championship. Alabama (12-0) defeated Notre Dame by a 31-14 score on New Year’s Day in the Rose Bowl College Football Semifinals as an 18.5-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Crimson Tide flexed their muscles on defense against the Fighting Irish offense by limiting them to 375 yards and just the two scores. Alabama has not only then played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not giving up more than 14 points in their last contest. And while that game flew Under the 65.5 point Total, they have then played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total after playing an Under. The Crimson Tide has been vulnerable against explosive offenses — Florida generated 462 yards against the Bama defense (including 408 in the air) while Ole Miss put up 268 rushing yards and another 379 passing yards for 647 total yards of offense against a Nick Saban-defense. There is no question that Ryan Day and his offensive coaching staff have dissected the Lane Kiffin game plan he installed for his Rebels’ offense in that game. Alabama has won the turnover battle in three straight games — and they have played 28 of their last 40 games on the road Over the Total after enjoying a +1 or better turnover battle in two straight contests. This Alabama team is simply overwhelming on offense — they are scoring 48.2 PPG while averaging 535.6 total YPG. And the Buckeyes are vulnerable in their passing game — especially on the edges with what is still a young defensive backfield with only seven games under their belts this season. Ohio State is 116th in the nation by allowing 281.1 passing YPG — and the QB Mac Jones leads a quick-strike attack that is fifth in the nation by averaging 349.3 passing YPG. The rich might get richer as well with the possibility that wide receiver Jaylen Waddle may be able to return to action in this game after being injured for months. The Over is 22-9-2 in the Crimson Tide’s last 33 games played on a neutral field — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total on a neutral field as a favorite laying 7.5 to 14 points. Ohio State has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after an upset win by at least two touchdowns. And while they generated 639 yards against the Clemson defense — the Over is then 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Buckeyes have gained at least 491 yards in all seven of their games this season — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after gaining at least 475 yards in two straight games. Additionally, Ohio State has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total with the total set at 63 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Yes, this is a biggggg number in the mid-70s. But Ohio State has scored at least 38 points in six of their seven games with their COVID-impacted Big Ten Championship Game against a Northwestern team slowing the game down being the exception. Notre Dame deployed a similar strategy in “holding” Alabama to their lowest scoring total of the season — but the Tide has scored at least 41 points in their other ten games. If both teams hit those floors, the Over comes in. Both of these teams are going to try to “out-offense” the other in what should be a very competitive contest. Tellingly, Saban’s teams have played 13 of their last 19 January Bowl games Over the Total — and this includes all 4 National Championship Games. 25* College Football Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (499) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (500). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-02-21 |
North Carolina v. Texas A&M -7 |
Top |
27-41 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas A&M Aggies (498) minus the points versus North Carolina Tar Heels (497) in the Orange Bowl. THE SITUATION: Texas A&M (8-1) enters the postseason coming off a 34-13 win at Tennessee as a 13.5-point favorite on December 19th. North Carolina (8-3) comes off a 62-26 upset win at Miami (FL) as a 3-point underdog on December 12th. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens.
REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES MINUS THE POINTS: Texas A&M has a chip on their shoulder for this game after not getting what they considered to be the “second” automatic bid into the College Football Playoff semifinals after getting bypassed by Notre Dame and an Ohio State team that “only” played six games (after seeing their non-conference schedule consisting of Bowling Green and Buffalo cut due to COVID). Will the Aggies come into this game with something to prove — or will they be complacent? The history of Jimbo Fisher teams is to take bowl games seriously. Fisher’s teams have won seven of their nine bowl games while covering the point spread in 6 of these 9 bowl games. And Fisher is regime building in College Station with a 25-10 record in his first three seasons there including two bowl wins after they crushed NC State in the Gator Bowl last year by a 55-13 score. This is a prestigious New Year’s Six bowl game in the cushy Saturday night prime-time slot with plenty of eyeballs from recruits to playoff committee members to AP voters that will make their preseason rankings which sets the table to rig the game for Power Five conference teams for playoff considerations — and the rich Texas A&M alumni are always watching with interest. So, yeah, I think Fisher has had his whip out for his team in practice to prepare for this game. The Aggies have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win by at least 20 points. And while they gained 497 yards against the Volunteers, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 475 yards in their last game. Senior Kellen Mond completed 26 of 32 passes for 281 yards in the win — and Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Aggies also have an outstanding defense that ranks 11th in the nation by allowing 316.6 YPG. North Carolina may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset victory on the road by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after pulling off an upset win on the road by at least three touchdowns. Additionally, the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a win against a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win over an ACC opponent. UNC exploded for 778 yards against the Hurricanes while outgaining them by +464 net yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +175 net yards. Head coach Mack Brown is dealing with several opt-outs for this game with three of his top skill players on offense in wide receiver Dyami Brown and running backs Michael Carter and Javonte Williams and his best defensive player in linebacker Chazz Surratt bypassing this game. Brown has young but untested talent filling their shoes. The Tar Heels rushed for a whopping 554 yards against Miami — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games after rushing for at least 275 yards in their last game. Now they face a stout Aggies run defense that holds opposing rushers to just 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry — while ranking second in the nation by allowing only 92.2 rushing YPG.
FINAL TAKE: Texas A&M has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. They also have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games against teams outside the SEC. 25* CFB Saturday Night ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Texas A&M Aggies (498) minus the points versus North Carolina Tar Heels (497). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-02-21 |
Ole Miss +10 v. Indiana |
Top |
26-20 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Mississippi Rebels (493) plus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (494) in the Outback Bowl. THE SITUATION: Mississippi (4-5) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on December 19th with their 53-48 upset loss at LSU as a 1-point favorite. Indiana (6-1) has won their last two games with their 14-6 upset victory at Wisconsin on December 5th as a 12-point underdog on December 5th. This game will be played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay.
REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS PLUS THE POINTS: Ole Miss surrendered 593 yards against the Tigers in what has been a horror show of a season for them on defense. But they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Rebels committed six turnovers in that game with quarterback Matt Corral throwing five interceptions in the loss. He should clean that up a bit in this bowl game. Ole Miss has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games on the road after a game where they turned the ball over at least four times — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games on the road after suffering a -2 or worse net turnover margin. Corral will be without his top two targets in wide receiver Elijah Moore and tight end Kenny Yeboah who have opted out for the NFL draft. But those two did not play against LSU — and they still gained 558 total yards with 251 of those yards in the air. Corral needs to make better decisions — and head coach Lane Kiffin’s offensive schemes should generate plenty of yardage no matter who is out there. The Rebels rushed for 307 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after rushing for at least 275 yards in their last game. They may be without running back Jerron Early who is questionable with an injury. Ole Miss has covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record. Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after pulling off an upset win as a double-digit dog. The Hoosiers won that game despite being outgained by -125 net yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 6 points in their last game. Indiana defeated Maryland in their previous game by a 27-11 score — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. This team did most of their good work this season with the dynamic Michael Penix, Jr. but he is out the season with an ankle injury. The offense is simply not the same with Jack Tuttle under center. The Hoosiers gained only 217 yards against Badgers — and they have thrown for only 130 and 115 yards in their two games since Tuttle inherited the quarterbacking gig. Indiana is 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams will be motivated since the Hoosiers have not won a bowl game since 1991 while the Rebels have not won a bowl game since 2016. But Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral field — and Ole Miss is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games on a neutral field. The Rebels are also 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 bowl games. Look for a close game with Ole Miss’ offense keeping them in this game. 25* CFB ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Mississippi Rebels (493) plus the points versus the Indiana Hoosiers (494). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-01-21 |
Ohio State +8.5 v. Clemson |
Top |
49-28 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (333) plus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (334) in the Sugar Bowl College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (6-0) won the Big Ten Championship Game with their 22-10 win over Northwestern as a 16.5-point favorite on December 19th. Clemson (10-1) won the ACC Championship Game with their 34-10 win against Notre Dame on December 19th. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES PLUS THE POINTS: It cannot be understated how significant a negative impact it was for Ohio State to have 22 players out in the Big Ten Championship Game — including their best wide receiver Chris Olave and one of their best defensive players in linebacker Baron Browning. Now, more than ever, I am embracing patience and due diligence before releasing plays after getting burned that morning (and we still should have covered that game with the Buckeyes’ final offensive drive stopping at the 1-yard line as time expired). A few important thoughts guided my decision this morning. The Buckeyes declared wide receiver Chris Olave as available to play this morning (along with their other players including Browning). Many of the 22 players impacted by COVID did not take part in full practice -- but that is not all that uncommon during the season (although not ideal). Now there is a narrative developing that Clemson has a situational advantage for this game having played in five more games. Maybe — although I have never heard the same argument made in college basketball (e.g. Duke has played in five more games than North Carolina — edge Blue Devils!). I just think this intangible is being significantly overplayed. Even though Ohio State has played six fewer games, they have been practicing the entire time! I mean, Ryan Day was pulling two-a-days in August even when the Big Ten canceled their darn season. And it is not as if Ohio State has been practicing against the local Columbus high school team in place of getting those five extra games against The Citadel and Syracuse that Clemson enjoyed. They were practicing and being coached-up playing against each other. Yes, statistically-speaking, elite teams improve in their efficiency numbers as the season moves forward — but not all of that improvement is contained to their game-day experiences. And, by-the-way, if we are going to become laptop fundamentalists on this point (despite the lack of data distinguishing between more practice time experience versus more practice and game time experience, then I would like to gently suggest that those same laptops give the edge to Opponent Adjusted Efficiency to the Buckeyes rather than the Tigers (with Pitt and Boston College and Syracuse and the Citadel). Furthermore, won't the five fewer games played now make this Buckeyes’ team relatively fresher? I remember all the darn Hot Takes four months ago that the potential postponement of the fall season until the spring would be devastating to the “student-athletes” who did not get a full offseason to recover before the fall because the regular season is so grueling. These are just bullshit arguments. What edge Clemson has in being a bit more battle-tested is likely mitigated with Ohio State being a little fresher. The Buckeyes have been motivated by revenge for this potential rematch for over a calendar year — with QB Josh Fields particularly anxious to redeem himself from that late interception in their 29-23 loss in the College Football Semifinals. Clemson has been mediocre at running the football as they average just 163.8 rushing YPG (68th in the nation) with little explosiveness as they had only three rushes for more than 40 yards.
FINAL TAKE: The laptops think this is closer to a coin flip game — and I agree. It not often that the Buckeyes are getting around a touchdown — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games as an underdog when getting 3.5 to 7 points. They have also covered the point spread in their last 4 games played in January. 25* CFB Game of the Year with the Ohio State Buckeyes (333) plus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (334). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-01-21 |
Notre Dame v. Alabama OVER 65.5 |
Top |
14-31 |
Loss |
-106 |
1 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (331) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (332) in the Rose Bowl in the College Playoff Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (10-1) looks to bounce back from their 34-10 loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game as an 11.5-point underdog on December 19th. Alabama (11-0) won the SEC Championship on December 19th with their 52-46 win over Florida as a 16.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Crimson Tide are going to score their share of points. They have scored at least 38 points in all eleven of their games while reaching at least 41 points in each of their games since their opening contest. They have the top Success Rate in the country which suggests they will convert first downs and score touchdowns in the Red Zone. Alabama has played 17 of their last 26 games Over the Total after scoring at least 42 points in their last game — and they have scored at least 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after scoring at least 50 points in their last contest. And while they have scored at least 42 points in five straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least 42 points in four straight contests. They raced out to a 35-17 lead at halftime against Florida — and they have played 18 of their last 24 games Over the Total after leading by at least 17 points at halftime of their last game. Both Florida and OIe Miss proved that good offenses can move the ball against their defense: the Gators generated 462 yards of offense (with their 46 points) while the Rebels gained a whopping 647 yards against them for 48 points. The other nine teams Alabama played this season combined to average only 13.3 PPG along with just 4.5 Yards-Per-Play. The Tide’s defensive numbers appear inflated by a weak strength of schedule. Can Notre Dame approach 30 points in this game? I think so. The most impressive thing about their upset victory against Clemson was the 90-yard drive they executed late in the game to force overtime after the Tigers had rallied in that game after their offense slowed down. The Fighting Irish scored less than 27 just twice this season. Perhaps head coach Brian Kelly will try to slow this game down by running the ball? Well, he didn’t try that against Clemson in that upset win. And playing conservatively fails as soon as a team trails by double-digits — so the Irish may not have a choice in how aggressive they play. Notre Dame has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a loss by at least 20 points in their last game. And while that game finished Under the 58 point total, the Irish have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Furthermore, the Irish have allowed their last two opponents to average 6.4 and 8.2 Yards-Per-Play — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing their last two opponents to average at least 6.25 YPP.
FINAL TAKE: Alabama has seen the Over go 22-8-2 in their last 32 games when playing on a neutral field — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total in January. Notre Dame has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when playing on the faster field turf rather than the grass field like at their home field. 25* CFB New Year’s Six Bowl Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (331) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (332). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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12-31-20 |
West Virginia v. Army +10 |
Top |
24-21 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Army Black Knights (212) plus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (211) in the Liberty Bowl. THE SITUATION: Army (9-2) has won three straight games after their 10-7 upset win against Air Force as a 1-point underdog on December 19th. West Virginia (5-4) has lost three of their last five games after their 42-6 loss at Iowa State as a 6-point underdog on December 5th. This game will be played on a neutral field at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: This bowl game presents the Mountaineers the opportunity to redeem themselves from an embarrassing loss — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after losing by at least four touchdowns on the road in their last game. West Virginia had covered the point spread in their previous three games before that bad loss to the Cyclones — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 44 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. Now this team goes back on the road where they are 0-4 with an average losing margin of -15.2 PPG. The Mountaineers have scored only 14.8 PPG in those four road games. They are also scoring just 14.3 PPG in their last three games while averaging just 338.3 Yards-Per-Game during that span. West Virginia has a good statistical defense as they rank 13th in the nation by allowing just 126.2 rushing YPG. But they have surrendered 183 rushing YPG over their last three contests in getting exposed by Texas, TCU, and then Iowa State. Now this Mountaineers team faces a triple-option rushing attack for the first time since 2015. Furthermore, they will face this challenge without one of their best defensive players in linebacker Tony Fields, Jr. who opted out for this game to prepare for the NFL draft. Army should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last contest — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after a contest where neither team scored more than 17 points. Additionally, Army has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They will bring an outstanding defense into this game that ranks second in the nation by both holding their opponents to 14.0 PPG and by allowing just 271.1 total YPG. The Black Knights have the best statistical defense in the nation by limiting their opponents to just 149.9 passing YPG. And while those numbers were improved by facing four triple-option teams this season, they picked off 13 passes this season.
FINAL TAKE: Army is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games in December — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games played on a neutral field. Head coach Jeff Monken will have his team ready to play. West Virginia is 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games in December and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight bowl games. Furthermore, the Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games played on a neutral field when favored. 25* CFB Game of the Month with the Army Black Knights (212) plus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (211). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-23-20 |
Florida Atlantic +9.5 v. Memphis |
Top |
10-25 |
Loss |
-116 |
3 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Florida Atlantic Owls (275) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (276) in the Montgomery Bowl. THE SITUATION: Florida Atlantic (5-3) aw their four-game winning streak snapped on December 10th with a 45-31 upset loss at home to Southern Mississippi as a 9.5-point favorite. Memphis (7-3) has won four of their last five games with their 30-27 upset win against Houston as a 7-point underdog on December 12th. This game is being played at Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama.
REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS PLUS THE POINTS: FAU has suffered two straight upset losses with their setback to the Golden Eagles preceded by a 20-9 upset loss at Georgia Southern as a 2.5-point favorite. These disappointments should ensure that head coach Willie Fritz will have his team ready to play in this bowl game. After his unceremonious departure from Florida State last season, Fritz cannot afford to let up in the slightest. As it is, Florida Atlantic has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after getting upset twice in a row. They also have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after losing two games in a row by double-digits. And in their last 9 games after a point spread loss, the Owls have played 7 of covered the point spread in 7 of these games. FAU should be able to slow down the Tigers’ offensive attack. With former South Florida head coach Jim Leavitt as his defensive coordinator, the Owls have been outstanding on defense for most of the season. They rank 9th in the nation by allowing only 16.5 PPG — and they rank 15th in the FBS by giving up just 326.4 total YPG. This strong defensive play has helped them cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. Memphis is 26th in the nation with a total offense that averages 451.5 YPG. But the Tigers have scored only 20.3 PPG in their last three contests while averaging just 296.7 total YPG. They managed just 300 total yards in their upset victory over Houston. Memphis has then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset win over an American Athletic Conference opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a narrow win by three points or less at home. Memphis goes back on the road for this bowl game where they have lost three of their four games this season while scoring just 17.0 PPG and averaging -80 YPG below their season average. Opt-outs have taken away some of the best skill position talents from the offense of Ryan Silverfield’s team in his first year as the head coach of the program. Running back Kenneth Gainwell along with wide receivers Damonte Coxie and John Williams are no longer with the team despite starting the year on the roster. The Tigers were outgained by the Cougars in their last game by -109 net yards but eked out that game with the help of an 85-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown. The Memphis defense is sketchy as they are allowing 448.7 YPG which is 102nd in the nation. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games in December including five of their last six games. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight bowl games. FAU has won and covered the point spread in 4 straight bowl games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games played on a neutral field. 25* CFB Group of Five Bowl Game of the Year with the Florida Atlantic Owls (275) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-19-20 |
Alabama v. Florida +17.5 |
Top |
52-46 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida Gators (240) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (239). THE SITUATION: Florida (8-2) looks to rebound from their 37-34 upset loss at home to LSU last Saturday as a 24-point underdog. Alabama (10-0) completed their undefeated regular season last week with their 52-3 win at Arkansas as a 28-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GATORS PLUS THE POINTS: Look for this Florida team to play one of their best games of the season after getting embarrassed last week in a game that ruined their college football playoff aspirations. The Tigers were extremely fortunate to win that when considering that they were outlined by -291 net yards. The win probability metrics given the underlying stats are quite low for LSU after that game — and they needed that personal foul penalty resulting from a thrown shoe after a Florida defensive stop to keep their winning drive alive that culminated in a 57-yard field goal. The Gators have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after suffering an upset loss at home as a double-digit favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset loss to an SEC rival as a double-digit favorite. Florida has also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games when playing on the road after a loss by a touchdown or less to a conference opponent. The Gators were without tight end Kyle Pitts in that game but he is expected to play and is the most dangerous target in their passing game. I am not sure that Florida can slow down the Alabama offense — although they have held their last three opponents to only 22.0 PPG and 324.3 total YPG. But Florida should be able to keep this game competitive due to their explosive offense behind quarterback Kyle Trask. The Gators racked up a whopping 609 yards last week against LSU. They are scoring 41.2 PPG while averaging 513.5 total YPG. Florida has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games in expected higher scoring games with the Total set at 63 or higher. Trask is completing 70.2% of his passes for 3717 yards with 40 touchdown passes and only five interceptions. Alabama is playing their third straight game away from home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning at least eight of their last ten games. And while the Crimson Tide have covered the point spread in seven straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. The Alabama offense appears unstoppable — but the Razorbacks did a decent job of holding them to 433 yards last week which is over 100 yards below their season average. One of their touchdowns came from an 84-yard punt return for a touchdown. And while the Tide has scored at least 42 points in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 42 points in at least four games in a row. Alabama forced four Arkansas turnovers last week for a +3 net turnover margin — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 45 games after forcing at least four turnovers in their last game and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after enjoying a +3 or better net turnover margin in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: The Crimson Tide have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games when playing on a neutral field as a favorite in the 14.5 to 17 point range. Too many points to pass up for a team that will likely put up a big number on the scoreboard tonight. 25* CFB CBS-TV Game of the Year with the Florida Gators (240) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (239). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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12-19-20 |
Northwestern v. Ohio State -17.5 |
Top |
10-22 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (229) minus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (230). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (5-0) takes the field again after remaining unbeaten this season two weeks ago with their 52-12 victory against Michigan State as a 21.5-point favorite. Northwestern (6-1) comes off a 28-10 win over Illinois as a 13.5-point favorite last Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral field at Lucas Oil Field in Indianapolis.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: I am not a believer in the Wildcats. Their 6-1 start is impressive — but I suspect this is a team we would have made money on when fading them in their late Big Ten conference games after a start like this. Instead, with the COVID-shortened season, they show up in the Big Ten Conference Championship Game. Maybe head coach Pat Fitzgerald’s team makes it to this game under normal circumstances — but that is a testament to the weakness of the Big Ten West where Northwestern compiled their impressive stats in this shortened season. The only team that the Wildcats have played from the Big Ten East was a bad Michigan State team — and somehow Sparty scored 29 points against this supposed elite defense! Nebraska tallied 442 total yards against this Wildcats’ defense as well. I suspect Ohio State is going to expose this unit. And Northwestern simply does not have the talent on offense to reach 30 points the way Indiana did against the Buckeyes to keep things relatively close. Their quarterback Patrick Ramsey transferred away from the Hoosiers because he was losing his job to Michael Penix, Jr. who is a dynamic dual-threat. Ramsey is a classic drop-back passer who lacks mobility. And while he has passed for 1218 yards, he is averaging only 5.8 Yards-Per-Attempt with only nine touchdown passes and six interceptions in his seven starts. Northwestern scored only 22.7 PPG in their last three contests — and they average just 283.3 total YPG in their three games away from Evanston. Those are all ominous numbers for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a point spread to cover as a double-digit favorite. They are also 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Wildcats did not force a turnover last week against the Illini — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not forcing a turnover in their last game. And while they rushed for 411 yards last week while tapping into their younger running backs on their depth chart like freshman Cam Porter, they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Ohio State’s defense has another level of athlete than what Illinois had to offer. The Buckeyes’ have been adjusting to life without Chase Young — but they still rank second in the nation in Expected Points Allowed per pass attempt. They are also holding opposing rushers to just 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. Ohio State has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game after holding Sparty to just 261 yards. They also have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Led by quarterback Justin Fields, the Buckeyes are an offensive juggernaut who is scoring 46.6 PPG while averaging 532.4 total YPG. Additionally, Ohio State has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games played on a neutral field. Ohio State usually saves a few tricks for their rivalry game with Michigan that they still have yet to unveil since that game was canceled. And the Buckeyes need style points to ensure they are one of the four teams in the playoff. Expect a blowout where head coach Ryan Day never has his team take their foot off the proverbial gas pedal. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Year with the Ohio State Buckeyes (229) minus the points versus the Northwestern Wildcats (230). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-18-20 |
Oregon +3.5 v. USC |
Top |
31-24 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (251) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (252) in the Pac-12 Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Oregon (3-2) has lost two straight games entering this game after their 21-17 upset loss at California as a 9-point favorite on December 5th. USC (5-0) remained unbeaten last Saturday with their 43-38 win at UCLA as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS PLUS THE POINTS: Oregon was placed into this game on Monday when the COVID outbreak in the Washington program forced them to pull out of that game. The Ducks thought they were going to be given the chance to earn the opportunity to play in this game with a showdown with the Huskies their scheduled game last week — but that game was canceled given the COVID issues in the Washington program. That game offered Oregon the chance to redeem themselves from suffering two straight upset losses at Oregon State and then at California two weeks ago. While the circumstances are less than ideal, this game does offer the Ducks the opportunity to salvage their season. Expectations were high for this group with 12 starters back from the team that finished 12-2 after winning both the Pac-12 Championship Game and then the Rose Bowl with a victory against Wisconsin. Oregon has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a bye week. And while the Ducks have not covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least three straight games. Oregon outgained the Golden Bears in their last game by +97 net yards but red zone problems and a -2 net turnover margin held the Ducks back. Regression was expected for this team in the turnover department this season after they enjoyed a +16 net turnover margin last year. However, the Regression Gods may have overcorrected with Oregon ranking 123rd in the nation with a -1.40 net turnover margin per game. The Ducks are averaging 34.2 PPG which is 27th in the FBS — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game. Oregon has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. They also have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 road games with the total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. Furthermore, the Ducks have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games on the road as an underdog of 3 points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 48 of their last 72 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. USC was very fortunate to escape last week’s game with a victory as they were outgained by UCLA by -105 net yards. Over their last three games, the Trojans are being beaten in the yardage battle by -19.6 net YPG. The Bruins exposed a soft USC defense last week by amassing 549 total yards. The Trojans generated 364 of those yards allowed were in the air — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. USC has also failed to cover the point spread in their last 3 games after allowing at least 42 points in their last contest. Sophomore Kedon Slovis did complete 30 of 47 passes for 344 yards last week but the Trojans are just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game — and they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And in their last 8 games in December, USC has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these games. The Trojans have been benefited from a +7 net turnover margin this season — so the Regression Gods can kill two birds with one stone tonight with some bounces that go the Ducks' way.
FINAL TAKE: Oregon will have plenty of confidence in this game as they crushed USC last season by a 56-24 score on the Trojans’ home field with a packed stadium. The Ducks have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 meetings with USC. Don’t be surprised if they pull the upset — but (always!) take the insurance with the points. 25* CFB Fox-TV Game of the Year with the Oregon Ducks (251) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-18-20 |
Nebraska v. Rutgers UNDER 52.5 |
Top |
28-21 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Nebraska Cornhuskers (207) and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (208). THE SITUATION: Nebraska (2-5) looks to bounce back from their 24-17 upset loss at home to Minnesota last Saturday as a 9-point favorite. Rutgers (3-5) looks to build off their 27-24 upset win in overtime at Maryland last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cornhuskers have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Nebraska has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. This Cornhuskers’ offense averages only 22.4 PPG. They managed just 308 total yards against a Golden Gophers’ defense that has struggled this season. Their defense has played better as the season has moved on — they have held their last three opponents to just 25.7 PPG along with 347.0 total YPG which are much better numbers than the 30.6 PPG and 405.7 total YPG they have allowed for the season. They go back on the road where they have played 5 straight Unders. Nebraska has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 19 of their last 27 games Under the Total as a favorite. Rutgers has played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after an upset win — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total at home after an upset win as an underdog. The Scarlet Knights have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Rutgers rushed for 224 yards last week in the victory — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. And while the Cornhuskers surrendered 206 yards on the ground last week, Nebraska has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Scarlet Knights have played 4 straight home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total in December.
FINAL TAKE: It will be cold in New Jersey tonight with the temperatures starting in the low-30s. Expect a quick game tonight with plenty of rushing plays. 25* CFB Big Ten Total of the Year within the game between the Nebraska Cornhuskers (207) and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (208). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-12-20 |
USC v. UCLA +3.5 |
Top |
43-38 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (438) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (437). THE SITUATION: UCLA (3-2)looks to build off their 25-18 upset win at Arizona State last Saturday as a 3-point underdog. USC (4-0) remained undefeated last Sunday with their 38-13 win at home against Washington State as an 11-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS PLUS THE POINTS: This appears to be a much improved team in Chip Kelly’s third year with the program at UCLA. They are outscoring their opponents by +7.8 Points-Per-Game — and they are outgaining these opponents by +57.3 net Yards-Per-Game. The Bruins’ two losses to Colorado and Oregon were by just nine combined points. UCLA has the opportunity to play the role of spoiler against their crosstown rivals — and they are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games after a straight-up win while also 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games after a point spread victory. They return home where are 2-0 this season with an average winning margin of +20.5 net PPG. The Bruins are averaging 228 rushing YPG which is 16th best in the nation. They have also not allowed more than 18 points in three of their last four games. A good running game along with strong defense is a good recipe to pull the upset. UCLA is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home as an underdog. USC is just 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. The Trojans have looked good in their last two games against Washington State and Washington — but they were shaky in their first two games. They needed to score two touchdowns in the final three minutes to get past Arizona State in their opening game — and then they only beat a terrible Arizona team by four points. The Wildcats have lost twelve straight games after their humiliating loss to the Sun Devils last night and the only time they stayed within single digits was against this Trojans team. USC has benefited from a +1.5 net turnover margin per game which is the second-best mark in the nation. The Trojans could not muster any semblances of a rushing attack last week against Washington State as they managed only five rushing yards. Quarterback Kedon Slovis did complete 25 of 32 passes for 287 yards with five touchdown passes last week but USC is just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Trojans are just 16-35-2 ATS in their last 53 games on the road — and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games when favored on the road. Head coach Clay Helton’s team has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in December.
FINAL TAKE: The home team has fared well recently in this series as the home team has covered the point spread in 12 of the last 17 meetings between these two teams. USC has not covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in the Rose Bowl playing at UCLA. 25* CFB Pac-12 Game of the Year with the UCLA Bruins (438) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (437). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-11-20 |
Arizona State v. Arizona OVER 54.5 |
Top |
70-7 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Arizona State Sun Devils (377) and the Arizona Wildcats (378). THE SITUATION: Arizona State (0-2) looks to bounce back from a 25-18 upset loss to UCLA as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Arizona (0-4) has lost eleven games in a row going back to last season after their 24-13 loss at home to Colorado as a 9.5-point underdog last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Sun Devils have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. Arizona State has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. The Sun Devils were flat last week after not playing for three weeks given COVID issues. They started slowly with just a field goal in the first half before getting their offense going in the second half. Behind sophomore quarterback Jaylen Daniels, Arizona State did generate 442 yards of offense. Now the Sun Devils go back on the road where they have played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, Arizona State has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss at home. The Wildcats were without sophomore quarterback Grant Gunnell who was injured on the first snap of their game with UCLA two games ago — but the word this afternoon from at least one Arizona beat writer is that he will return to the field tonight for this rivalry game. The Wildcats did gain 422 yards against the Buffaloes but struggled in the red zone. Arizona got 268 of those yards on the ground — and they have played 21 of their last 31 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Even if Gunnell does not play and head coach Kevin Sumlin calls on freshman Will Plummer to be his quarterback tonight, the Wildcats should have success against this depleted Sun Devils’ secondary that is 118th in the nation by allowing 286.5 passing YPG. Arizona State lost safety Aashari Crosswell for the season when he decided to opt-out to prepare for the NFL (after being suspended by the team to start the season). Arizona stays at home where they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams with a losing record overall. The Wildcats have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in December.
FINAL TAKE: Head coach Kevin Sumlin’s seat is red hot when it comes to his future with the Arizona program. This is a must-win for him — so expect him to pull out all the stops in being aggressive. These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Over the Total. 25* CFB Pac-12 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Arizona State Sun Devils (377) and the Arizona Wildcats (378). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-05-20 |
Texas A&M v. Auburn +6 |
Top |
31-20 |
Loss |
-108 |
1 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Auburn Tigers (412) plus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (411). THE SITUATION: Auburn (5-3) looks to rebound from their 42-13 loss at Alabama last Saturday as a 25.5-point underdog. Texas A&M (6-1) has won five games in a row with their 20-7 win over LSU last week as a 16-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Auburn should pick themselves off the mat after getting thrashed by their in-state rival in the Iron Bowl. The Tigers have bounced back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. They return home where they are a perfect 4-0 with an average winning margin of +17.0 PPG. Auburn has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games at home. And while they had covered the point spread in their previous three games before getting blown out by the Crimson Tide, they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. It is not often that this program is getting the points at home — they have only been a home dog six times since 2016. Auburn has covered the point spread in 5 of those 6 games with four outright upset victories — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 home games when getting the points. Furthermore, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in December. Texas A&M managed only 267 yards against LSU last week despite having the football for 33:32 minutes. The Aggies averaged a mere 3.76 Yards-Per-Play in that game. Texas A&M has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to gain more than 275 yards in their last contest. With their 6-1 record, the Aggies are in the college football playoff hunt — especially with Ohio State at risk of not playing a minimum of five Big Ten games to qualify for the Big Ten Championship Game (although the conference will change their rules to give the Buckeyes eligibility for that game, if necessary). But the pressure could be too much for this Texas A&M team that only beat Vanderbilt by 5 points earlier this season. The Aggies did flex their muscles on defense by holding the Tigers to just 267 yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Now Texas A&M goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games with the total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. And in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record, the Aggies have failed to cover the point spread 5 times.
FINAL TAKE: Texas A&M has only covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 trips to Auburn to play the Tigers. Expect a close game. 25* CFB SEC Underdog of the Year with the Auburn Tigers (412) plus the points versus the Texas A&M Aggies (411). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-04-20 |
UL-Lafayette +3 v. Appalachian State |
Top |
24-21 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (327) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (328). THE SITUATION: UL-Lafayette (8-1) has won five straight games after their 70-20 blowout victory at UL-Monroe as a 28.5-point favorite last Saturday. Appalachian State (7-2) looks to build off their 47-10 win over Troy as a 14-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS PLUS THE POINTS: UL-Lafayette has had this game circled all year after losing to Appalachian State for the second straight year in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game last season — and that loss was the fourth setback to the Mountaineers in the last two seasons after they also dropped the regular-season matchup between these two teams. The Ragin’ Cajuns have already punched their ticket to play in the conference championship for the third straight time in a row with the opportunity to avenge their only loss this season with a date against Coastal Carolina — but defeating this Appalachian State team remains a very high priority for head coach Billy Napier and the fourteen starters back from last season. UL-Lafayette should build off their momentum from last week as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least 20 points. And while they generated 511 yards last week against the War Hawks, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. UL-Lafayette is averaging 5.8 Yards-Per-Carry which is 6th in the nation — and they have outrushed their last two opponents by at least +131 net rushing yards. The Ragin’ Cajuns have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after outrushing their last two opponents by at least +125 net rushing yards. This team is undefeated on the road with a 5-0 mark — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. UL-Lafayette has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games with the total set in the 49.5 to 52 point range. And in their last 11 games on the road as an underdog, the Ragin’ Cajuns have covered the point spread in 8 of these contests. Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win at home by at least four touchdowns. Furthermore, while the Mountaineers enjoyed a 34-10 halftime lead last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after leading by at least 24 points at halftime of their last game. Appalachian State rushed for 275 yards last week which helped to fuel their 554 total yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Mountaineers have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last contest. The scoring punch has been down this season for this team as their 32.8 PPG scoring average is -6.0 PPG below what they tallied last year even though eight starters are back from that unit. They stay at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 52 point range. And in their last 9 games as a favorite, Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread 7 times.
FINAL TAKE: I waited to get the weather update today for Boone, North Carolina, because I would be less enthusiastic about the Ragin’ Cajuns if the temperature dropped below 32 degrees with rain expected. The weather reports call for temperatures in the 40s during the game with the wind not much of a factor — and that should help the UL-Lafayette passing game. The Mountaineers have a new head coach this year in Shawn Clark who was an assistant to the Scott Satterfield and Eliah Drinkwater coached-teams of the previous two seasons that have dominated the Ragin’ Cajuns. The motivational edge for UL-Lafayette should make the difference tonight. 25* CFB Friday ESPN Game of the Year with the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (327) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (328). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-28-20 |
Troy v. Appalachian State UNDER 51 |
Top |
10-47 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Troy Trojans (213) and the Appalachian State Mountaineers (214). THE SITUATION: Troy (4-4) has lost two games in a row as well as three of their last four after their 20-17 upset loss to Middle Tennessee as an 11-point favorite. Appalachian State (6-2) looks to rebound from their 34-23 loss at Coastal Carolina last Saturday as a 3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Trojans have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after an upset loss. Additionally, Troy has played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Trojans have played 5 straight games Under the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. Troy is scoring only 22.7 PPG in their last three games which is -5.3 PPG below their season average — and the 349.8 total YPG they average on the road is -54.3 net YPG below their season average. The Trojans have played 5 straight games Under the Total on the road. They have also played 10 of their last 11 road games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 4 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points, Troy has played all 4 games Under the Total. Appalachian State has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Mountaineers rushed for 204 yards in the loss to the Chanticleers — and they have then seen the Under go 9-1-1 in their last 11 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Appalachian State is scoring 26.0 PPG while averaging 383.7 total YPG in their last three contests — and those numbers are -5.0 PPG and -61.7 net YPG below their season average. The Mountaineers defense has only managed to force one turnover in each of their last two games as well — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not forcing more than one turnover in their last game. Appalachian State does return home where they are holding their opponents to just 17.8 PPG and 314.0 total YPG. The Mountaineers have played 4 straight games Under the Total as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Appalachian State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in November — and Troy has played 4 straight games Under the Total in November. 25* CFB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Troy Trojans (213) and the Appalachian State Mountaineers (214). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-28-20 |
Ball State +10.5 v. Toledo |
Top |
27-24 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ball State Cardinals (199) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (200). THE SITUATION: Ball State (2-1) has won two games in a row with their 31-25 victory over Northern Illinois on November 18th as a 14.5-point favorite. Toledo (2-1) comes off a 45-28 win at Eastern Michigan as a 6.5-point favorite on November 18th in midweek MACtion.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Ball State is a veteran team with 14 starters back including six all-conference players from the group that was 4-4 in Mid-American Conference play last season. That team outgained their conference opponents by +31 Yards-Per-Game but too often stymied by bad luck. The Cardinals have been typically a dangerous underdog to keep their games close under head coach Mike Neu in his fifth year with the program. Ball State has covered the point spread in 4 straight games as an underdog — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road getting the points. Led by senior quarterback Drew Plitt along with another six senior starters on offense, the Cardinals are scoring 33.3 PPG this season while averaging 476.3 total YPG. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Toledo has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. And while the Rockets went into halftime with a 24-7 lead over the Eagles, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after owning at least a 17-point halftime lead. Senior quarterback Eli Peters is questionable for this game wit the knee injury that knocked him out of last week’s game. Sophomore Carter Bradley came on as his understudy to complete 5 of 8 passes for 108 yards. Peters and Bradley combined for 298 passing yards — but Toledo has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Rockets have played their last two games Over the Total — but not only have they failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game, they have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after playing two straight Overs. They return home to the Glass Bowl where they are just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Ball State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 trips to Toledo to face the Rockets. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Game of the Month with the Ball State Cardinals (199) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (200). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-27-20 |
Notre Dame v. North Carolina +6 |
Top |
31-17 |
Loss |
-105 |
16 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (136) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (135). THE SITUATION: North Carolina (6-2) has won two games in a row with their 59-53 victory over Wake Forest as a 13-point favorite back on November 14th. Notre Dame (8-0) returns to action after a bye week last week coming off a 45-31 win at Boston College as a 13-point favorite on November 14th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS PLUS THE POINTS: With the Fighting Irish opening as the second-ranked team in the college football playoff, the pressure is on for this team to win out their remaining games to play in the ACC Championship Game with a win securing one of the four spots in the college football playoff. Yet Notre Dame has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after winning at least eight games in a row. The Irish have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after playing a game where both teams scored at least 30 points. Notre Dame averaged 7.58 Yards-Per-Play to defeat the Eagles two weeks ago — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games on the road after averaging at least 7.25 Yards-Per-Play in their last game. The Irish have scored at least 31 points in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after scoring at least 31 points in four straight games. The foundation of this outstanding Notre Dame offense this season has been their offensive line that returned all five of their starters. But that chemistry and cohesion are now in flux with two starters on that line out for this game. Center Jarrett Patterson is out the season with a broken foot and right guard Tommy Kraemer, a four-year starter, is out this week after having an appendectomy. Those are ominous absences for a team that has looked vulnerable on defense in their last two games as they have surrendered 71 combined points in those games. North Carolina rallied from a three-touchdown deficit to defeat the Demon Deacons two weeks ago — and they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Sophomore quarterback Sam Howell completed 32 of 45 passes for 550 yards with six touchdown passes in the victory — and the Tar Heels have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. North Carolina has a potent offense that should be able to keep up with the Irish. The Tar Heels rank 4th in the nation by averaging 563.4 total YPG — and their 43.1 PPG scoring average is 10th in the nation. North Carolina has struggled on defense — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. They host this game in their final conference home game this season where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games as an underdog. The Tar Heels have also covered the point spread in 25 of their last 32 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: North Carolina can play this game loose in the role of the spoiler in this one — and they are undefeated at home with a 4-0 mark while scoring 48.5 PPG and averaging a whopping 609.8 total YPG in those games. Expect a close game with the Tar Heels in a position to pull the upset. 25* CFB ACC Game of the Year with the North Carolina Tar Heels (136) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (135). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-21-20 |
Cincinnati v. Central Florida +5.5 |
Top |
36-33 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Central Florida Knights (344) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (343). THE SITUATION: Central Florida (5-2) has won three straight games after their 38-13 win over Temple last week as a 28.5-point favorite last Saturday. Cincinnati (7-0) remained unbeaten last week with their 55-13 win over East Carolina as a 27.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: Central Florida has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. After losing to Tulsa and Memphis, the Knights have rattled off three-straight wins while scoring 44.3 PPG in those games. This team is an offensive juggernaut under head coach Josh Heupel. They lead the nation by averaging a whopping 619.1 total YPG in their up-tempo attack. Sophomore quarterback Dillon Gabriel has found a nice rhythm as he has completed 57 of 95 passes for 1018 yards with nine touchdown passes and no interceptions. For the season, the lefty is completing 63.3% of his passes with 23 touchdown passes and just two interceptions while averaging 393.6 passing YPG which leads the nation. Their +129 net yardage edge over the Owls was the slimmest margin in their last three contests — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after outgaining their last three opponents by at least +125 net yards. They have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 54 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points. Additionally, the Knights have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite. The Bearcats benefited from a +3 net turnover margin against the Pirates — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. Cincinnati has college football playoff aspirations on their minds — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning at least seven games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Bearcats have feasted on a soft schedule — their opponents have a combined 15-13 record with 11 of those victories coming from SMU and Memphis. The Bearcats are allowing only 12.4 PPG this season but they have yet to play an opponent who pushes the pace like the Knights. This Cincy may be overrated given their easy schedule. Tulsa ranks just ahead of them in Defensive Expected Points Allowed — and Central Florida put up 455 yards against the Golden Hurricane defense.
FINAL TAKE: UCF should put up plenty of points against the Bearcats who are not as comfortable playing in shootouts. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games with the total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games away from home with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. The Bearcats upset the Knights last season by a 27-24 score at home as a 3.5-point underdog on October 4th — so this is a prime opportunity for UCF to exact some revenge. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Underdog of the Year with the Central Florida Knights (344) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (343). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-20-20 |
Syracuse v. Louisville -18 |
Top |
0-30 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Louisville Cardinals (326) minus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (325). THE SITUATION: Louisville (2-6) has lost two straight games as well as six of their last seven contests after their 31-17 loss at Virginia as a 6.5-point underdog last Saturday. Syracuse (1-7) has lost five games in a row with their 16-13 loss to Boston College as a 14.5-point underdog two weeks ago on November 7th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS MINUS THE POINTS: Turnovers were the culprit for Louisville not being in a position to defeat the Cavaliers. Junior quarterback threw an interception that was returned for an 85-yard touchdown in the first quarter that served as a 10 to 14-point swing with the Cardinals in the red zone. Cunningham then fumbled in Virginia territory at the 8:22 minute mark in the fourth quarter to ruin a potential game-tying touchdown drive. Louisville outgained the Cavaliers by +110 net yards. Head coach Scott Satterfield’s team should bounce-back as they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after a point spread defeat. Furthermore, Louisville has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. The Cardinals have been held back by a -12 net turnover margin with their 18 giveaways ranking 3rd most in the FBS. Louisville is outgaining their opponents by +48.5 net YPG this season which tracks with their preseason expectations. Satterfield returned 16 starters from last year’s 8-5 team. Defense was considered the biggest concern for this team but they did hold Notre Dame to only 12 points and they also held Florida State to just 16 points. Their return home where they are outgaining their opponents by +128.7 net YPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as a favorite. Cunningham is a dynamic talent at quarterback who rushed for 197 yards with two touchdowns in the losing effort against the Cavaliers. He is completing 63.2% of his passes for 1907 yards with 15 touchdown passes but his nine interceptions are a problem — but he faces an Orange defense that has forced only one turnover in their last three games. Louisville averages 38.0 PPG along with 530.0 total YPG in their four home games — so they have the offensive firepower to blow Syracuse out. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 3 straight games when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. Syracuse has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games after a loss by a touchdown or less again an ACC opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Orange managed only 240 yards of offense in the loss. Syracuse entered the season with only 11 starters back from last year’s 5-7 that finished only 2-6 in ACC play. Injuries and opt-outs have further decimated what was already a shaky roster. The Orange are now without their top two running backs from their original depth chart along with their top two defensive backs including safety Andre Cisco who enter the leading the nation with his 12 career interceptions (which correlates with the steep decline in the team’s takeaways). Syracuse also lost their starting quarterback Tommy Devito in mid-October. After three subpar starts from senior Rex Culpepper, head coach Dino Babers turned to a true freshman in JaCobian Morgan to make his first start against the Eagles two weeks ago. Morgan was OK that week — he completed 19 of 30 passes for 188 yards with a TD and an interception. But this is a tough assignment being asked to outduel Cunningham leading a team that is just 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. Syracuse has also failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 58 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points.
FINAL TAKE: Louisville will not have their top running back, Javian Hawkins, who has opted-out for the rest of the season — but they expect to get their speedy junior Hassan Hill to return to action after missing the last three games. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in their last 4 opportunities to host the Orange. This may look like a lot of points to lay for a 2-6 team — but let’s trust the wisdom of the oddsmakers. 25* CFB Friday ESPN Game of the Month with the Louisville Cardinals (326) minus the points versus the Syracuse Orange (325). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-17-20 |
Akron v. Kent State UNDER 59 |
Top |
35-69 |
Loss |
-108 |
17 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Akron Zips (301) and the Kent State Golden Flashes (302). THE SITUATION: Akron (0-2) remained winless last week with their 24-10 loss at Ohio last Tuesday as a 27.5-point underdog. Kent State (2-0) is undefeated after their 62-24 win at Bowling Green last Tuesday as a 20.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Zips may still be winless in the 14 games coached by Tom Arth in his second season with the program — but there is reason for optimism. Arth has 70 new players on the roster consisting of transfers, redshirt freshman, and true freshmen from the group that was 0-12 last year. Six starters are back on defense along with eleven of the top sixteen tacklers — and Akron limited the Bobcats last week to just 307 yards of offense. The Zips have a solid rushing attack led by junior college transfer Teon Dollard who ran the ball 22 times for 165 yards against Ohio for a robust 7.5 Yards-Per-Carry average in that game. Akron ran for 218 yards last week to improve their rushing Yards-Per-Game average to a 173.0 clip for the season. The Zips should be able to shorten the length of this game with their rushing attack — they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Arth has a redshirt freshman under center in Zach Gibson with the team’s senior three-year starter, Kato Nelson, recovering from shoulder surgery in August. As it is, the Zips have played a decisive 39 of their last 57 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Akron has also played 27 of their last 38 games Under the Total after login two straight games against conference rivals. Now the Zips go back on the road where they have played 35 of their last 51 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Kent State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Golden Flashes have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where at least 70 combined points were scored. Additionally, Kent State has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Golden Flashes generated 372 passing yards against the Falcons — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Kent State averaged an explosive 11.94 Yards-Per-Play for 657 total yards — yet they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in their last game and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 475 yards in their last game. The Golden Flashes return home where the Under is 11-5-1 in their last 17 games when they are favored. Kent State has excelled in their pass defense so far this season with seven sacks while holding their opponents to just 173.0 passing YPG which is the best mark in the MAC.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 meetings Under the Total. Expect a lower-scoring game. 25* CFB Tuesday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Akron Zips (301) and the Kent State Golden Flashes (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-14-20 |
Wake Forest v. North Carolina UNDER 71 |
Top |
53-59 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (149) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (150). THE SITUATION: Wake Forest (4-2) has won four games in a row with their 38-14 win at Syracuse as a 14-point favorite two weeks ago on October 31st. North Carolina (5-2) has won two of their last three games with their 56-24 win at Duke as a 10.5-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Demon Deacons have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Wake Forest has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Demon Deacons limited the Orange to just 221 yards of offense — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Wake Forest has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. This team has steadily improved their play on defense this season for head coach Dave Clawson. They have held their last three opponents to just 17.7 PPG along with only 358.0 total YPG. Furthermore, the Demon Deacons have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total as an underdog. North Carolina has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Tar Heels have also played 31 of their last 47 home games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. North Carolina has played three straight Overs where at least 69 combined points were scored — and their last two contests reaching at least 80 points. Yet the Tar Heels have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight Overs. North Carolina has also played 22 of their last 20 games Under the Total when they played two straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games when they have played three straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored. Despite these higher scoring games, the Tar Heels are playing pretty good defense when playing at home. North Carolina holds its visitors to just 24.0 PPG along with 363.0 total YPG.
FINAL TAKE: North Carolina has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set at 63 or higher — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 63 or higher. 25* CFB ACC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (149) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-13-20 |
Iowa v. Minnesota +3.5 |
Top |
35-7 |
Loss |
-103 |
4 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Minnesota Golden Gophers (128) plus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (127). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (1-2) won their first game of the season last week with their 41-14 win at Illinois as a 7.5-point favorite. Iowa (1-2) also snapped a two-game losing streak to win their opening game of the season last Saturday with their 49-7 victory over Michigan State as a 5.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN GOPHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Minnesota should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, the Golden Gophers have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a victory by at least three touchdowns against a Big Ten rival. The Minnesota defense played their best game of the season by holding the Illini to just 287 yards of offense. The Gophers have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Minnesota offense has been quite good as they are scoring 36.3 Points-Per-Game while averaging 444.3 total YPG. Running back Mo Ibrahim leads the nation by averaging 190.3 rushing YPG. They have 85 combined points in their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after scoring at least 31 points in two straight games. The Gophers return home where they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. Additionally, Minnesota is 28-12-2 ATS in their last 42 games in November. Iowa may be due for an emotional letdown after they crushed the Spartans last week. The Hawkeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. Iowa scored on a 54-yard punt return for a touchdown and then a 54-yard interception touchdown return to close out the second quarter and go into halftime with a 35-0 lead. Yet Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after owning at least a 17-point lead at halftime in their last game. The Hawkeyes have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And in their last 6 games are not allowing more than 20 points in their last game, Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: Minnesota will have revenge on their minds for this one as Iowa ruined their unbeaten season last year on November 16th with their 23-19 win in Iowa City as a 3.5-point favorite. The Golden Gophers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as an underdog under head coach P.J. Fleck. 25* CFB Big Ten Underdog of the Month with the Minnesota Golden Gophers (128) plus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (127). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-06-20 |
BYU v. Boise State +4.5 |
Top |
51-17 |
Loss |
-112 |
5 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 9:45 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (314) plus the points versus the Brigham Young University Cougars (313). THE SITUATION: Boise State (2-0) won their second-straight game this season with their 49-30 win at Air Force last Saturday as a 13-point favorite. BYU (7-0) remained unbeaten this season last Saturday with their 41-10 victory at home against Western Kentucky as a 31.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: Boise State quarterback Hank Bachmeier did not get on the plane to Air Force last week for an undisclosed reason — the Broncos did have one player who tested positive for COVID but privacy reasons preclude the release of that information (and they had another player not make the trip). Just as well, competitively, as it allowed Jack Sears to get his shot under center. The USC transfer completed 17 of 20 passes for 280 yards with three touchdown passes (no interceptions) with another 36 rushing yards with a touchdown. Boise State has not announced their starting quarterback for this game — frankly, I think Sears is better but I was prepared to still back the Broncos if Bachmeier was the confirmed starter. Put another way, if Bachmeier starts but struggles, head coach Bryan Harsin is going to turn to Sears. As it is, the Broncos have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 home games after a win by at least five touchdowns against a conference rival. Sears led an offense that generated 459 yards last week — and they are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Boise State did allow the Falcons to gain 484 yards in that game but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Broncos have only forced one turnover this season — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 38 games after not forcing more than one turnover in two straight games. They return home to their blue field where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games. They also have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games as an underdog. BYU has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a victory by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. The Cougars have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. BYU has not allowed more than 267 yards in two straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in two straight games. This is the Cougars’ best start since 2001 — but their best competition has been against middling Houston and Navy teams this season. BYU was a two-touchdown or more favorite in their other five games this season. And this remains a program that entered the season with a 14-74 straight-up record against top-25 teams since 1972. The Cougars have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in November.
FINAL TAKE: This game does have playoff implications with BYU ranked 9th in the AP poll with Boise State ranked 21st but a potential playoff team if they go undefeated to win the Mountain West Conference. The Broncos will be looking to avenge a 28-25 upset loss at BYU last year on October 19th where they were 7-point favorites. Boise State has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a Friday night. 25* CFB Friday FS1-TV Game of the Year with the Boise State Broncos (314) plus the points versus the Brigham Young University Cougars (313). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-05-20 |
Wyoming v. Colorado State +3.5 |
Top |
24-34 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Colorado State Rams (306) plus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (305). THE SITUATION: Colorado State (0-1) lost its opening game of the season last Thursday in their 38-17 upset loss at Fresno State as a 2.5-point favorite. Wyoming (1-1) comes off a 31-7 win at home against Hawai’i last Friday as a 2.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Colorado finally played their first game of the season last week after having their opening game with New Mexico canceled because of some COVID issues with the Lobos. The Rams also had COVID issues that kept sophomore wide receiver Dante Wright and tight end, Trey McBride, out for that game. With Warren Jackson leaving the team earlier this fall, those absences left this offense thin with their passing targets. Getting the updated COVID lists for all of these teams is simply essential before investing. Both Wright and McBride will return for this game which will make a huge difference. Wright is a speedy sophomore and McBride is a potential NFL prospect. First-year head coach Steve Addazio was frustrated with the mistakes his team made last week. Said the former Boston College head coach after the game: “We've just got to get rid of the massive amount of mistakes that we had on both sides of the ball … Blown coverages, misaligned on defense ... Then (on offense), we had a couple of ridiculous mistakes that were drive-killers … We just need to be way, way more consistent.” The biggest jumps in improvement often come after the opening game of the season — I expect a much better effort from this Rams team tonight. As it is, Colorado State has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Rams have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by at least 20 points. And in their last 5 games after failing to score at last 20 points, Colorado State has covered the point spread in 4 of these games. They returned 15 starters from last year’s team that was only 4-8 — but they did outgain their Mountain West Conference foes by +34 Yards-Per-Game. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games. Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset victory by at least 10 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games if they come off a home game where they pulled off an upset victory by double-digits. The Cowboys only committed one turnover in that game which helped them win the turnover battle for the second-straight week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after not turning the ball over more than once in their last game. We had Wyoming in that game in just a great situation with them returning home to host the Rainbow Warriors in very cold weather. The Cowboys have now won seven straight games at home to improve their 30-15 straight-up mark in the last forty-five games at War Memorial Stadium. But Wyoming has lost six of their last eight games away from home. Twelve starters returned from the team last year that finished 8-5 — but they lost their top three tacklers from that group. Nevada rolled up 496 yards against them in their opening game loss in Reno. Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 road games when laying 3.5 to 7 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have won the last four Border Wars between these two teams after last year’s 17-7 victory at home in Laramie. Look for Colorado State to be in a position to pull the upset tonight in Addazio’s second game with the team. 25* CFB Thursday CBS Sports Network Game of the Year with the Colorado State Rams (306) plus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-30-20 |
Hawaii v. Wyoming |
Top |
7-31 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 9:45 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Wyoming Cowboys (142) minus the point(s) versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (141). THE SITUATION: Wyoming (0-1) looks to rebound from their 37-34 upset loss at Nevada in overtime last week by a 3-point favorite. Hawai’i (1-0) comes off a 34-19 upset win at Fresno State last Saturday as a 2.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINT(S): Wyoming started slowly as they fell behind by a 28-6 margin before rallying to force overtime where they eventually failed to steal the victory. But the Cowboys have then bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread setback. Wyoming endured sophomore quarterback Sean Chambers suffer a season-ending broken leg in the third play of this game. Chambers started the first seven games last year before suffering a season-ending knee injury. However, the Cowboys have a capable replacement in redshirt freshman Levi Williams, who led the team to 38 points as the starter last year in their 38-17 victory over Georgia State in the Arizona Bowl. Williams completed 16 of 31 passes for 227 yards while adding another 40 yards on the ground with two touchdowns in almost leading his team to the comeback win. Chambers is a run-first quarterback — Williams is the better passer while still offering running skills. Despite the loss, this is a good Wyoming team that returned over 70% of the two-deep from the team last year that finished 8-5. Many observers have commented on the lack of a home-field advantage when playing in a pandemic without crowded stadiums — but this has been a myopic view of the intangibles that offer teams a home edge. The Cowboys retain a significant home edge playing in Laramie, with it being 7220 feet above sea level. Becoming comfortable playing in a high altitude is not as easy for visiting teams — Wyoming has won 29 of their last 44 games at home on Jonah Field in War Memorial Stadium, including all six home contests last season. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games when favored. Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset win by at least 10 points as a road underdog. The Rainbow Warriors ran for 323 yards in the first game under first-year head coach Todd Graham who has molded the team’s Run-and-Shoot attack with Air Raid principles and an increased emphasis on running the football. But Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after rushing for at least 200 yards. Graham inherited eleven starters from last year’s team finished 10-5 with their 38-34 win over BYU in the Hawai’i Bowl. That team enjoyed four net victories in games decided by one scoring possession — so that winning record could have been flipped with some bad breaks. They did have a -11 net turnover margin last year — but they enjoyed a fortunate +3 net turnover edge against the Bulldogs last week. Now this team goes on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. Additionally, the Rainbow Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games against teams with a losing record — and they are just 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Graham had scheduled practice time in the Rocky Mountains this week — but seven inches of snow in Denver led to the postponement of those outdoor practices. That is not a good sign for this team from the tropics, who are just 9-24-1 ATS in their last 35 games in October. Wyoming has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games in October — and the temperature is expected to drop below the freezing level tonight. Head coach Craig Bohl will have his team ready to play against this Rainbow Warriors team that upset them last week by a 17-13 score as a 4-point underdog. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Wyoming Cowboys (142) minus the point(s) versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (141). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-29-20 |
South Alabama v. Georgia Southern UNDER 52.5 |
Top |
17-24 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the South Alabama Jaguars (103) and the Georgia Southern Eagles (104). THE SITUATION: South Alabama (3-2) has won two straight games against Sun Belt Conference rivals after their 38-14 win over UL-Monroe on Saturday as a 14-point favorite. Georgia Southern (3-2) looks to rebound from a 28-14 loss at Coastal Carolina a 1-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jaguars have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning two in a row — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning their last two games against conference rivals. And while South Alabama allows 282 passing yards to the War Hawks, the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Now after playing their last two games at home, the Jaguars go back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total. South Alabama has also played 9 of their last 13 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing their last two games at home. Additionally, the Jaguars have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total in October. Georgia Southern has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while quarterback Shai Werts passed for only 94 passing yards last week after completing only 7 of 20 passes, the Eagles have then played 5 straight games Under the Total after not passing for more than 170 yards in their last game. Now after playing three of their last four games on the road, Georgia Southern returns home where they have played 4 straight games Under the Total as a favorite. The Eagles have also played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Georgia Southern returned their top four tacklers from last season — and they are allowing only 20.8 PPG this year.
FINAL TAKE: Georgia Southern has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing on a Thursday — and the Under is 4-1-2 in South Alabama’s last 7 games played on a Thursday night. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the South Alabama Jaguars (103) and the Georgia Southern Eagles (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-23-20 |
UL-Lafayette -2.5 v. UAB |
Top |
24-20 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (309) plus the points versus the UAB Blazers (310). THE SITUATION: UL-Lafayette (3-1) looks to rebound from their 30-27 upset loss at home to Coastal Carolina as a 9-point favorite back on October 14th. UAB (4-1) has won three straight games after their 37-14 victory over Western Kentucky last Saturday as a 10.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS MINUS THE POINTS: UL-Lafayette should respond with a big effort tonight. The Ragin’ Cajuns have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games on the road after an upset loss to a conference rival. UL-Lafayette returned fourteen starters from the group that finished 11-3 with a 27-17 victory over Miami (OH) in the Lending Tree Bowl. Led by senior quarterback Levi Lewis, the Ragin’ Cajuns are averaging 456.7 total YPG over their last three contests. They also have averaged 7.55 and 7.57 Yards-Per-Play in their last two games — and they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in their last two games. Now UL-Lafayette goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 52 range. UAB may be due for a letdown after they crushed the Hilltoppers last week. The Blazers gave failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. UAB has also failed to cover the point in 6 straight games after a win by at least 20 points. And in their last 17 games after winning at least three games in a row, the Blazers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of these games. UAB rushed for 358 yards to help lead them to victory — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 37 points in their last game. They are playing without their starting quarterback Tyler Johnston III who is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury. Redshirt freshman Bryson Lucero was shaky under center for the Blazers as he completed only 15 of 31 passes for 141 yards with a touchdown and an interception while not contributing to the running game. UAB is at a significant disadvantage in this game at the quarterback position. This team returned eighteen starters from head coach Bill Clark’s team that finished 9-5 last season. They only had one victory over an FBS team with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. UAB has beaten three FBS teams this season in South Alabama, UTSA, and Western Kentucky last week — none of these teams have a record above .500. The Blazers' one loss was by 17 points at Miami (FL).
FINAL TAKE: UL-Lafayette has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in October. Look for them to pull away to win this game comfortably. 25* CFB Friday CBS Sports Network Game of the Month with the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (309) plus the points versus the UAB Blazers (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-17-20 |
Georgia v. Alabama -4.5 |
Top |
24-41 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (166) minus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (165). THE SITUATION: Alabama (3-0) enter this game coming off their 63-48 victory over Ole Miss last Saturday as a 24-point favorite. Georgia (3-0) comes off a 44-21 win at home against Tennessee last Saturday as a 13-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CRIMSON TIDE MINUS THE POINTS: What’s up with the Alabama defense that surrendered a whopping 647 yards last week to the Rebels. The Tide returned five starters on a defense that had many freshmen forced into duty last season because of injuries. The front seven should be outstanding with the secondary work in progress with only one returning starter in junior cornerback Patrick Surtain. This inexperienced secondary got exposed by a Mississippi offense coached by a former offensive coordinator in Lane Kiffin who was able to (a) use a quick tempo to his advantage; (b) deploy a spread passing attack following the principles of Art Briles to expose this secondary with (c) a former blue-chip quarterback in Matt Corral who was also able to burn the Bama defense at times with his legs. I will mention this again below — but these are all tendencies that Georgia will not be able to replicate. That might have been the worst defensive performance for an Alabama team in the Nick Saban 14-year era. This unit will play better this week — and his teams have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The Crimson Tide has also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. But the encouraging developments for the Alabama faithful is the development of their offense under QB Mac Jones. The junior completed 28 of 32 passes against Ole Miss for 417 yards with two touchdowns. He is completing 79.5% of his passes while posting the second-best QBR in the nation. Jones was quite good playing for Tua Tagovailoa last season. He had two bad pick-sixes on the road at Auburn in a game that the Crimson Tide lost despite outgaining them by a 515-354 yardage margin. Alabama then sleepwalked in the first half in the Citrus Bowl against Michigan before rallying to crush the Wolverines by a 35-16 score. This will be the Crimson Tide’s biggest game since bitterly losing the Iron Bowl despite dominating that game. Expect this Alabama team to be very chippy. The Tide are very tough to beat when they have a powerful offense. Alabama averaged 9.89 Yards-Per-Play two weeks ago against Texas A&M for 544 yards before ripping off 10.2 YPP last week against Ole Miss for an incredible 723 yards. The Tide have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 525 yards in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 home games after averaging at least 7.25 YPP in two straight contests. Additionally, Alabama rushed for 306 yards last week — and they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 home games after rushing for at least 300 yards in their last game. Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread cover — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. The Bulldogs may have the best defense in the nation — but their eight starters that returned this season were torched for 37 points and 6.5 YPP when playing against LSU in the SEC Championship Game last season. The Crimson Tide have four returning starters on their offensive line with three seniors that will challenge the Bulldogs’ defensive line. They have a threatening passing attack that will stretch Georgia vertically and horizontally — and that should create huge rushing lanes for running back Najee Harris and Brian Robinson Jr. That will likely be the difference for Alabama: Harris rushed for 206 yards with five touchdowns last week. He is averaging 3.1 yards-per-carry BEFORE contact (8th in the nation) and another 3.6 YPC AFTER contact (3rd in the nation). Led by Harris, the Tide offense leads the nation in both Success Rate and with their 6.5 rushing YPC average. The offensive firepower of Alabama simply cannot be matched by the Bulldogs offense which is the weak link in this game. Georgia only returned three starters from what was a pedestrian offense that was just 50th in scoring and 61st in total yardage. The young offensive line which remains a work-in-progress. The running backs and wide receivers are mostly a new group. And then there is the quarterback situation with walk-on Stetson Bennett the (current) starter. Bennett is playing because their two prized freshman recruits are not ready and former USC blue-chipper J.T. Daniels was only cleared to play two weeks ago. Head coach Kirby Smart likes Bennett because he is safe with the football while being capable with the passing attack — a junior level version of Jake Fromm. Well, that ain’t gonna get it done against Alabama. Bennett is small — just 5’11 and 190-lbs. He is a statue in the pocket. This is the profile of the quarterbacks that Saban defenses swallow and devour. The Bulldogs do not play with tempo and deploy a conventional pro-style offense that is designed to overwhelm lesser opponents. They are just 7th in the SEC on third-down conversion rate. I think first-year offensive coordinator Jeff Monken is fine — I think his impact on this game would have been stronger if it was being played in December rather than in their fourth game with this inexperienced offense. I suspect that Georgia will look to Daniels or another one of their quarterbacks before this game is over. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games as an underdog — and Alabama has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Saban has tested negative for COVID three straight times — so he has been cleared to be on the sidelines. Bottom-line: the Tide have won the last five meetings against Bulldogs teams with better offenses and certainly more threatening quarterbacks — and this offense is catching the Bama defense on the wrong week after last week’s embarrassment. 25* CFB CBS-TV Game of the Month with the Alabama Crimson Tide (166) minus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (165). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-16-20 |
BYU v. Houston +6 |
Top |
43-26 |
Loss |
-112 |
9 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Houston Cougars (110) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (109). THE SITUATION: Houston (1-0) won their opening game of the season last Thursday with their 49-31 win over Tulane as a 6.5-point favorite. BYU (4-0) remained undefeated last Saturday with their 27-20 win over UTSA as a 34-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE HOUSTON PLUS THE POINTS: Houston started slowly in finally getting their season started last week as they surrendered two defensive touchdowns to the Green Wave to find themselves down 24-7 early in the 2nd quarter. The Cougars then demolished Tulane the rest of the way by outscoring them by a 42-7 margin while outgaining them by 476 to 211 yards. Houston has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 24 points in their last game. BYU is getting the hype with their perfect record and +32.8 net PPG average — but I think it is the other Cougars in this game that are undervalued. Second-year head coach Dana Holgorsen returned nineteen starters while adding a whopping 33 transfer players from FBS, FCS, and junior college programs from last year’s group that finished 4-8. Holgorsen brought tanking and the de-facto “process” to college football last season with eleven players choosing to redshirt before losing eligibility by playing in their fifth game. This is a team loaded with talent coming off their worst won/loss record in 15 years. Holgorsen seems to have his QB to operate his version of the Air Raid in junior Clayton Tune who completed 20 of 33 passes for 319 yards with two touchdowns last week. Quarterbacks tend to see a big jump in their second-season under Holgorsen and his system. Houston has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Cougars’ defense returns 93% of its productivity from last season while getting a bunch of new talent from transfers. Houston is a dangerous home dog as they are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games when getting the points. These Cougars have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in October — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games played on a Friday night. BYU has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread after a point spread loss. This team struggled against the Roadrunners as they struggled to finish drives in the Red Zone. This is troubling as they were 120th in the Red Zone last season. They also allowed UTSA to pass for 287 yards which were the most they allowed in the air all season. That is not a good sign when facing a Holgorsen Air Raid attack — and BYU has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. QB Zach Wilson did complete 21 of 30 passes for 292 yards in the win — but these Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Frankly, I have considered this Cougars team to be a paper tiger: they opened their season by crushing a Navy team that was not physically prepared to play given their limited workouts due to COVID before returning home for three straight games at home against Troy and Louisiana Tech before the UTSA “showdown” last week. BYU has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after winning at least two in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning three games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing their last two games at home. BYU is not a good frontrunner either — they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when favored and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road when laying the points.
FINAL TAKE: BYU has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games with the Total set at 63 or higher. Houston has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. 25* CFB Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Houston Cougars (110) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-15-20 |
Georgia State v. Arkansas State -3 |
Top |
52-59 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Arkansas State Red Wolves (106) minus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (105). THE SITUATION: Arkansas State (2-2) enters this game coming off a 50-27 win over Central Arkansas last Saturday as a 14.5-point favorite. Georgia State (1-1) returns to action after last playing on October 3rd when they upset East Carolina by a 49-29 score as a 2-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED WOLVES MINUS THE POINTS: Arkansas State will have something to prove in this game after being upset in their last game against an FBS opponent on October 3rd in their 52-23 loss at Coastal Carolina as a 3.5-point favorite. That was a difficult situation for the Red Wolves as they were playing their third straight game away from home. The Chanticleers are an underrated football team as well — as UL-Lafayette found out on Thursday night when they were upset at home against them. Arkansas State returned fifteen starters from last year’s team that finished 8-5 in a season culminating with a 34-26 win in the Camellia Bowl against FIU. The Red Wolves proved their mettle last month with a 35-31 upset win at Kansas State as a 15-point underdog (and perhaps they were due for a letdown when facing Coastal Carolina in their next game three weeks later). Despite their 2-2 record, they are outgaining their opponents by +56.8 net YPG. They stay at home in Jonesboro for just their second game this season where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. Arkansas State has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 70 or higher. The Red Wolves have been playing high-scoring games with each of their four games totaling at least 61 combined points. These are the games that Arkansas State tends to thrive in under head coach Blake Anderson as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing four straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored. Anderson has yet to settle on a full-time quarterback with junior Logan Bonner the starter last season for the first four games before suffering a season-ending hand injury which presented the opportunity to former Alabama transfer Layne Hatcher to step in with the redshirt sophomore finish 8th in the FBS by averaging 294.6 passing YPG. Anderson is rotating both quarterbacks with them both combining to complete 61.2% of their passes for an offense that is averaging 342 passing YPG along with an 8.3 Yards-Per-Attempt average. Georgia State scored a defensive touchdown and a special teams touchdown against the Pirates to help them win their last game. They are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. They also gained 485 yards in that game but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 475 yards in their last game. The Panthers are using redshirt freshman Cornelius Brown as their quarterback who will be making his first start on the road with this being Georgia State’s first game away from their home in Atlanta at Georgia State Stadium which was previously Turner Field for the Atlanta Braves. Georgia State is just 2-10-2 ATS in their last 14 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road. The Panthers have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a game where at least 70 combined points were scored.
FINAL TAKE: Arkansas State will also be motivated to avenge a 52-38 upset loss at Georgia State last season where they were 6.5-point favorites. The Red Wolves have only had ten defensive players who have been available for all four of their games given injuries and COVID — but this unit will likely be at their healthiest for this game. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Game of the Year with the Arkansas State Red Wolves (106) minus the points versus the Georgia State Panthers (105). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-10-20 |
Miami-FL v. Clemson -14.5 |
Top |
17-42 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (318) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (317). THE SITUATION: Clemson (3-0) is unbeaten so far this season after their 41-23 victory over Virginia last week as a 27.5-point favorite. Miami (3-0) is also undefeated on the season after they crushed Florida State two weeks ago by a 52-10 score as a 12-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Hurricanes look to be an improved team after second-year head coach Manny Diaz modernized his offense by bringing in former SMU offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee to implement his version of an up-tempo spread offense while matching him with former Houston QB D’Eriq King who transferred to the program in the offseason. Miami is 7th in the nation by averaging 43.3 PPG which is taking a lot of pressure off their usually-talented defense. But after playing UAB, Louisville (now 1-3), and the Seminoles (who are a mess), this is a significant upgrade in competition. Yet the Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Miami generated 517 yards of offense against Florida State after gaining 485 yards against Louisville — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after gaining at least 475 yards in two straight games. We are supposed to believe that this Hurricanes’ defense is loaded — but they did lose 25.5 of their sacks from last season. There are warning signs that this is not an elite unit. Louisville — the team Georgia Tech beat last night — generated 516 yards against them two weeks ago while exposing the Miami defense against both the run (209 rushing yards allowed) and the pass (307 passing yards allowed). The Hurricanes are allowing 3.96 Yards-Per-Carry which is 10th in the ACC in run defense. Miami’s Achilles heel in their bigger games last season was their suspect offensive line that struggled in the run game while surrendering 51 sacks which was the most of all Power Five conference teams. Four starters return from that group who are now coached by Garin Justice. They face a handful of future NFL players from this Clemson front seven that has racked up 27 tackles-for-loss along with 13 sacks already this season. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after a win by at least 20 points. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Tigers allowed Virginia to generate 417 yards last week in their comfortable victory — and that lackluster effort is probably just what defensive coordinator Brent Venables needs to get his unit’s attention in practice this week. Clemson tends to raise their level of play at this point in the season. Since 2015, Dabo Swinney’s team is just 12-12-1 ATS against FBS opponents in their opening games through the first weekend in October. The offense averages 34.2 PPG in those contests with 42% of their victories being by at least three touchdowns. Swinney is still learning his team while experimenting with some things — and the schedule is usually pretty soft. However, from the second week of October through the rest of the season since 2015, the Tigers are 29-15-2 ATS with a 40.8 PPG scoring average along with 51% of their victories being by at least three touchdowns. After their 21-20 scare against the Cavaliers last year, Clemson’s next eight regular-season victories were by an averaging winning margin of +42.1 PPG with the team outgaining their opponents by +348 net YPG. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games. Furthermore, Clemson is 6-1-1 ATS in October — and the Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games in October.
FINAL TAKE: This is Clemson’s first high-profile game since their 42-25 loss to LSU in the National Championship Game — so I expect Trevor Lawrence and company to be very motivated. This Miami team lacks big-game experience — and this is a program that has lost their last three opportunities to defeat a top-ten team. A paper tiger will be exposed to real tigers. 25* CBB ACC Game of the Month with the Clemson Tigers (318) minus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (317). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-03-20 |
Auburn v. Georgia UNDER 44.5 |
Top |
6-27 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (153) and the Georgia Bulldogs (154). THE SITUATION: Auburn (1-0) comes off a 29-13 win over Kentucky last Saturday as a 6.5-point favorite in the opening game of their season. Georgia (1-0) also won their first game of the season last Saturday when defeated Arkansas on the road as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Tigers’ 29 points is a bit deceptive regarding the quality of their offensive effort last week. Auburn only gained 324 yards of offense last week. They were given a short field from a fumble recovery near the Red Zone along with a failed fake punt by the Wildcats. The Tigers rushed for only 91 yards on 30 carries with their best run being of just 12 yards. Auburn has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in their last game. The Tigers now go on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total as an underdog overall. Additionally, Auburn has played 11 of their last 17 road games Under the Total as a dog getting 7.5 to 14 points. And in their last 5 games against SEC foes, the Tigers have played 4 of these games Under the Total. Auburn will have trouble moving the ball against what might be the best defensive unit in the country. Georgia returns eight starters from a defense that led the nation by allowing only 12.6 PPG last season. The Bulldogs’ defense held the Razorbacks last week to just 280 yards. Both of Arkansas’ scoring drives were just 24 and 43 yards. Georgia has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points. The Bulldogs have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. But the Georgia offense is an entirely different story. For starters, who will be their starter under center? Redshirt freshman Dawn Mathis got the start last week but struggled to move the offense with the Bulldogs leading by just a 7-5 score at halftime. Junior Stetson Bennett came on in relief with the former walk-on completing 20 of 29 passes for 211 yards to lead his to the easy win. That performance will likely be enough for head coach Kirby Smart to tap him as his starter. Yet Georgia still averaged only 4.3 Yards-Per-Play against Arkansas while generating 360 hidden yards stemming from their defense and special teams to help get their 37 points — and one of their scores came from a 30-yard interception return for a touchdown. Former USC QB J.T. Daniels was also medically cleared to play this week after recovering from the torn ACL he suffered in the opening game last year for the Trojans — but the spring transfer has only begun full-contact practices on Monday. The problem for Georgia is this unsettled QB situation is combined by a young offensive line as well as a rebuilt running back and wide receiver groups. The Bulldogs rushed for only 121 yards last week while averaging 2.9 Yards-Per-Carry. Georgia has played 7 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight Unders against teams ranked in the top-ten. The Under is also 28-9-2 in the Bulldogs’ last 39 games at home — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Georgia won last year’s meeting on the road by a 21-14 score. Tigers’ QB made the start last year in his freshman campaign — he completed 30 of 50 passes for 245 yards but he averaged just 4.9 Yards-Per-Attempt. These two teams have played 6 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total — and the Under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 encounters in Athens. 25* CFB SEC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (153) and the Georgia Bulldogs (154). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-26-20 |
Florida State +11.5 v. Miami-FL |
Top |
10-52 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Florida State Seminoles (395) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (396). THE SITUATION: Florida State (0-1) takes the field again after suffering a 16-13 upset loss at Georgia Tech two weeks ago on September 12th as a 13-point favorite. Miami (2-0) is unbeaten so far this season after they defeated Louisville on the road by a 47-34 score as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SEMINOLES PLUS THE POINTS: Things started well in the first game under first-year head coach Mike Norvell. Junior quarterback James Blackman led the offense to 10 points in their first two possessions — but then things went off the rails. Blackman turned the ball over twice on fumbles while throwing an interception and two others drives were stopped by failed 4th down conversions. The Seminoles generated 438 yards of offense but scored only three more points the rest of the way to suffer the upset despite outgaining the Yellow Jackets by +221 net yards. Florida State should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after suffering an upset loss to an ACC rival — and they have covered the point spread in 3 straight games after a loss by a touchdown or less against a conference foe. The Seminoles have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a game where neither team scored more than 17 points. Florida State will be a bit healthier for this game with FAU transfer Meiko Dotson and Hamsar Nasirildeen bolstering their defensive backfield after missing the Georgia Tech game. The team will also be inspired to play for Norvell who is not making the trip to Miami given quarantine protocols after he tested positive for COVID-19. I do think think his absence will negatively impact the Seminoles. He was able to work with the team remotely to help establish game plans and purpose for this showdown. While Norvell always has called the offensive plays going back to his four-year tenure as the head coach at Memphis, offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham who was his OC and quarterbacks coach for two seasons at Memphis will take on those responsibilities. Dillingham was the offensive coordinator for Auburn last season. Tight ends coach Chris Thomsen will handle the head coaching responsibilities with his head coaching experience at Abilene Christian from 2005 to 2011. Miami may be due for an emotional letdown after their big won on national television last week against the Cardinals. The Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win over a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Miami has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Hurricanes defeated Louisville despite getting outgained by -31 net yards. Second-year head coach Manny Diaz has to be happy with his new-look offense behind transfer QB D’Eriq King as they generated 485 total yards last week — but Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. And while the Hurricanes also gained 495 yards against UAB in their opening game, they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after gaining at least 475 yards in two straight games. But the defense is an issue despite their 18 tackles-for-less that they have generated this season. Louisville torched them for 516 yards last week but it was the three takeaways and their +3 net turnover margin that made the winning difference in that game. Yet the Hurricanes have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not committing a turnover in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Miami has not been a reliable favorite as of late as they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 home games when laying 10.5 to 14 points. Florida State has lost the last three meetings between these two teams after getting upset last year in Tallahassee by a 27-10 score as a 3-point underdog. Look for a close game between these in-state rivals. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Florida State Seminoles (395) plus the points versus the Miami (FL) Hurricanes (396). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-13-20 |
Clemson +6.5 v. LSU |
Top |
25-42 |
Loss |
-110 |
359 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, January 13th, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (283) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (284) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Clemson (14-0) reached the National Championship game for the second straight season with their 29-23 win over Ohio State on December 28th as a 2.5-point favorite. LSU (14-0) joined them earlier that day with their 63-28 blowout win over Oklahoma as a 16.5-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans.
REASONS TO TAKE CLEMSON PLUS THE POINTS: The various Power Ranking quantitive analytical forecasts for this game have things closer to a pick ‘em — LSU entered the playoffs overvalued and those inclinations were rewarded with their blowout victory over the Sooners. Both semifinals games were an interesting example of how one or two big plays can dramatically swing the balance of the game. Clemson was on the verge of being blown out by the Buckeyes before a targeting penalty was called on a questionable hit on quarterback Trevor Lawrence. That resurrected a dead drive which the Tigers then scored a touchdown to completely reverse the momentum of that game. Oklahoma might have seen the same fortune if an obvious pass interference call was made to sustain an early drive for them — instead, the refs missed it and a frustrated defense was soon called for targeting themselves which not only fueled another LSU touchdown but resulted in an undermanned Sooners’ defense seeing a key defensive back ejected from the game. And the route was on. LSU has now covered the point spread in three straight games after gaining a whopping 532 total yards against an Oklahoma defense missing several key pieces via team suspension and then that in-game ejection. But LSU has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after covering the point spread in at least three straight games. I am still not sold on this LSU defense that has surrendered 29.3 PPG along with 429.6 total YPG in their seven games away from home. They held their last three opponents to just 15.0 PPG but those games were against a tapped-out Texas A&M team along with an offensively-challenged Georgia group before the Sooners. LSU allowed more than 450 yards in four of their games with Texas, Florida, Ole Miss, and Alabama all scoring at least 28 points against them. Clemson took their first big punch to the mouth this season but got off the mat to defeat an Ohio State team I think is at least as talented as LSU. The quants that measure in-season performance mostly rated Ohio and LSU as the better team — but those quantitative assessments do not take into account anything from last season. Dabo Swinney returned twelve starters from last year’s perfect 15-0 national champion squad including is a phenom at quarterback in Trevor Lawrence. I am just not going to hand out any demerits for the Tigers' failure to overly impress the College Football Playoff committee by failing to generate enough style points against teams like Syracuse and North Carolina early in their schedule. Given that Clemson was likely to reach the playoff even if they suffered an early-season loss, it was reasonable for Swinney to prime his team to play their best football in the second half of the season. Clemson has now allowed only 42 combined points in their last three playoff games over the last two seasons. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games in December — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 bowl games. Clemson has also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games against teams with a winning record including their last seven contests against winners — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. The Tigers are rarely the underdog — but they have covered the point spread in 37 of their last 55 games when getting points. Swinney’s teams at Clemson have also covered the point spread in 8 of their 9 postseason games as an underdog while pulling the upset six times. Additionally, Clemson has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games played on a neutral field — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on a neutral field as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: LSU will have a geographical advantage with this game being played 81.3 miles away from their Baton Rouge campus. I just do not assign much value at all to the potential crowd noise that a team may enjoy on a neutral field. The familiar environment along with the routine of being at home play as much (or more) of a role for home-field advantage than potential crowd noise — especially in a dome where the audience cheering and yelling tends to get drowned out. However, I think the championship experience that this Clemson team enjoys over LSU’s players and coaching staff gives them another big edge. 25* CFB National Championship Game *A-List* Special with the Clemson Tigers (283) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (284). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-13-20 |
Clemson v. LSU UNDER 70 |
Top |
25-42 |
Win
|
100 |
69 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the National Championship Game between the Clemson Tigers (283) and the LSU Tigers (284). THE SITUATION: Clemson (14-0) reached the National Championship game for the second straight season with their 29-23 win over Ohio State on December 28th as a 2.5-point favorite. LSU (14-0) joined them earlier that day with their 63-28 blowout win over Oklahoma as a 16.5-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The offenses are getting all the headlines — and most of the bettor’s attention with the Total approaching the 70 threshold — yet I think both defenses of these teams are being under-appreciated. Clemson surrendered 516 yards of offense to Ohio State but it was their ability thwart three Red Zone trips by the Buckeyes in the first half of that showdown which kept the Tigers in that game. After giving up 16 points in the first 22:20 minutes of that game, the Tigers only gave up one final touchdown over the remaining 37:40 minutes of that game. Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venerable is one of the best in the business — keep in mind his ability to make in-game adjustments if LSU racks up the points early in this game. In the Tigers’ last three Championship Games (all with Venerable), Clemson allowed only 7 combined points in the second half while registering nine combined sacks. On paper, this may be a better statistical defense this season than the one that limited Tua Tagovailoa and a potent Alabama offense to just 16 points in last year’s National Championship Game. Last year’s Tigers’ defense allowed touchdowns in 10.8% of their opponent’s possessions while forcing turnovers in 12.1% of their opponent’s possessions and allowing 29.6% of the available yards per drive to their opponent. The 2019 Clemson defense improved on all those numbers against a comparable schedule: they held their opponents to TD drives in just 8.0% of their possessions while forcing a turnover in 18.0% of their drives while allowing only 26.4% of the available yards per drive to their opponent. The Tigers led the country by allowing their opponents to -152 YPG below their season average. LSU will offer a stiff challenge with them averaging 397.2 passing YPG with a 10.7 Yards-Per-Attempt average — but Clemson has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams who average at least 8.0 YPA and they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams who average at least 250 passing YPG. The extra week to prepare for this game should help Venable as well as they have played 33 of their last 45 games Under the Total with at least two weeks to prepare including seven straight Unders. Clemson has also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of at least 75% — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by at least +17.0 PPG. LSU is outscoring its opponents by +27.8 PPG after their blowout victory over the Sooners. Defensive coordinator Dave Aranda devised a scheme that limited the explosive Oklahoma offense to just 322 yards of offense. It was key plays early in that game that stalled the Sooners’ offense which put them behind the eight-ball versus the Joe Burrow-Tigers offense. LSU held its last four opponents to 270 total YPG. Even better, after taking out that fourth game against Arkansas, the Tigers held their last three opponents to just 15.0 PPG along with only 259.0 total YPG against three above-average offenses in Texas A&M, Georgia and Ole Miss. LSU did generate 692 total yards against a depleted Oklahoma defense — but they have then played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after gaining at least 575 yards in their last game. And while the Tigers have scored at least 37 points in six straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 37 points in four straight games.
FINAL TAKE: LSU has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on a neutral field as a favorite. Clemson has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on a neutral field — and they have played 13 of their last 14 games in a dome Under the Total. While the field conditions help the speed of the offenses, it also helps the speed of the defenses. It does not take many Red Zone stops to keep the scoring below the number when it is approaching the 70 point range. Try to wait in placing this bet since I suspect the number will keep being pushed up by the betting public. 25* CFB Bowl Total of the Year with National Championship Game between the Clemson Tigers (283) and the LSU Tigers (284). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-06-20 |
Miami-OH v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 55.5 |
Top |
17-27 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Lending Tree Bowl between the Miami (OH) RedHawks (279) and the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (280). THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (8-5) has won six of their last seven games after winning the Mid-American Conference Championship Game on December 7th with their 26-21 upset victory over Central Michigan as a 5.5-point underdog. Lafayette (10-3) saw their six-game winning streak snapped in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game on December 7th with their 45-38 loss at Appalachian State as a 5-point underdog. This game is being played at Land Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Alabama.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The RedHawks have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a pint spread victory. Miami (OH) has also played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning at least four of their last five games. And while the RedHawks have only forced one turnover in each of their last two games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not forcing more than one turnover in two straight contests. Miami has a better defense than their numbers suggest — those statistics are skewed a bit from a difficult non-conference schedule that included road games at Ohio State, Iowa, and Cincinnati. The RedHawks will look to run the ball to control the Time of Possession — they averaged 38 rushing attempts per game while running on over 63% of their offensive snaps. But Miami averages only 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry while ranking just 122nd in the nation by averaging 305.9 total YPG. The RedHawks average -84 YPG below their opponent’s season defensive average. The Ragin’ Cajuns have a good defense that allowed only 19.9 PPG which was 20th best in the nation. It will be particularly difficult for freshman quarterback Brett Gabbert to throw on the Lafayette defense that is 16th in the nation by allowing just 193.8 passing YPG. The Ragin’ Cajuns have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning at least four of their last five games. Lafayette did generate 513 yards of offense in their loss to the Mountaineers — but they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Ragin’ Cajuns have scored at least 31 points in seven straight games — but they have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 31 points in four straight contests. Lafayette has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They also have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as a favorite — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when favored in the 10.5 to 21 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field. With the RedHawks scoring only 18.5 PPG when away from home, they will only need to slow down the Ragin’ Cajuns offense a bit to keep this game below the number. 25* CFB Group of Five Bowl Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Lending Tree Bowl between the Miami (OH) RedHawks (279) and the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-31-19 |
Texas v. Utah -7 |
Top |
38-10 |
Loss |
-102 |
6 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (262) minus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (261) in the Alamo Bowl. THE SITUATION: Utah (11-2) looks to pick themselves off the after laying the proverbial egg in the Pac-12 Championship Game in their 37-15 upset loss to Oregon on December 6th. Texas (7-5) snapped a two-game losing streak to close out their regular season with their 49-24 win over Texas Tech as a 9.5-point favorite on November 29th. This game is being played on a neutral field in San Antonio.
REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES MINUS THE POINTS: Utah should respond with a strong effort with this high-profile game on New Year’s Eve to remove the stink from their embarrassing loss to the Ducks. The Utes have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Utah has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after suffering an upset loss. The Utes were serious contenders to make the College Football Playoff because they a legitimate outstanding team this season. They lead the nation by allowing only 256.2 total YPG — and they are 4th in the nation by only giving up 13.2 PPG. The offense is as prolific as any unit in the Kyle Whittingham era as they are 25th in the FBS by scoring 34.0 PPG. Senior quarterback Ty Huntley if 5th in the FBS in Passing Efficiency while proving his offense with a threat with his legs. Senior running back Zack Moss averages 6.2 Yards-Per-Carry. The Utes have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Utah has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games as a favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points. Texas may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Expectations were sky-high for this team after last year’s bowl game where the Longhorns upset Georgia. In hindsight, more attention should have been paid that the Bulldogs were completely disinterested in that game after failing to make the College Football Playoff before seeing a handful of their best players skip the game to prepare for the NFL draft. Head coach Tom Herman has been very dangerous when motivating his team when they are playing the role of the underdog — his teams are 11-5 ATS with ten upset victories when getting the points. But he seems to be using this game entirely to prepare for an important 2020 season as he sacked both his offensive coordinator Tim Beck and his defensive coordinator Todd Orlando. This lack of continuity will be very difficult for his team to overcome even with a few extra weeks to prepare. As it is, the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games played on a neutral field wit the Total set in the 52.5 to 56 point range. Texas has been fortunate with turnovers to close out their regular season as well as they have only committed two turnovers (in separate games) over their last four contests. But the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after playing four straight games where they did not commit more than one turnover.
FINAL TAKE: I would worry about some teams not taking this bowl game seriously after suffering the emotional letdown of not making the College Football Playoff — but not a Whittingham-coached team. Whittingham is 11-2 straight-up in bowl games — and the Utes have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 bowl games. The route may be on … lay the points. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Utah Utes (262) minus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (261). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-31-19 |
Georgia State v. Wyoming UNDER 49 |
Top |
17-38 |
Loss |
-119 |
7 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Arizona Bowl between the Georgia State Panthers (259) and the Wyoming Cowboys (260). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (7-5) stumbles into this bowl game having lost three of their last four games after their 38-10 loss at Georgia Southern as a 6.5-point underdog back on November 30th. Wyoming (7-5) has also lost three of their last four games with their 20-6 loss at the Air Force as a 13.5-point underdog on November 30th. This game is being played on a neutral field in Tuscon.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Panthers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. And while Georgia State did not commit a turnover in their loss to the Eagles, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the total after not committing a turnover in their last game. The Panthers’ offense slowed down after the injury to quarterback Dan Ellington during the ninth game of the season. He had rushed for 603 yards through the first-half of that game against Louisiana-Monroe before suffering what turned out to be a torn ACL. In his last three starts, Ellington rushed for -5 yards overall which dramatically impacted the Georgia State offense as they averaged only 157 rushing YPG over their last final three games which was a far cry from their 275 rushing YPG before his injury. Over their last three games, the Panthers scored only 21.7 PPG while averaging just 332.7 total YPG with both those numbers -10.7 PPG and -112.2 total YPG below their season average. Georgia State also scored only 25.7 PPG while averaging 401.5 total YPG away from home which was -6.7 PPG and -45.4 YPG below their season average. The Panthers have played 5 straight games Under the Total in December. Georgia State has also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. The Panthers will have difficulties moving the ball against this Cowboys defense the ranks 11th in the nation by allowing only 17.8 PPG. Wyoming has an outstanding run defense that allows only 99.4 rushing YPG which is 6th in the FBS. They held their opponents to -73 YPG below their season average on offense this season. They have held their last three opponents to just 17.7 PPG along with only 330.7 YPG. The Under is 19-7-1 in the Cowboys’ last 27 games after a loss — and the Under is 19-6-1 in their last 26 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Wyoming has seen the Under go 15-5-1 in their last 21 games after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game — and they have played 7 straight Unders after failing to score at least 20 points in their last contest. Additionally, the Cowboys have played 11 straight games Under the Total after a game where no more than 29 combined points were scored. Wyoming has their own issues at QB after redshirt freshman Sean Chambers suffered a season-ending knee injury. Chambers was effective with his legs as he averaged 6.7 YPC which accounted for 567 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. Redshirt sophomore Tyler Vander Waal was ineffective in his absence under center with things being so bad that he decided to enter the transfer portal after the Air Force game. That leaves little-used freshman Levi Williams as the Cowboys’ quarterback for this game. Wyoming has scored only 14.7 PPG while averaging just 280.3 total YPG over their last three games. The Cowboys were a much better team at home where they were 6-1 in the high altitude air in Laramie. But this team was just 1-5 on the road where they only scored 18.3 PPG while averaging only 294.5 total YPG. They managed just 225 yards of offense between Vander Waal and Williams against the Falcons — and the Under is 9-1-1 in their last 11 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Wyoming’s main source of offense will be behind running back Xavavian Valladay who rushed for 1061 yards this season. Between Valladay’s running and the Cowboys’ defense, this game should move quickly. The Under is 18-7-1 in Wyoming’s last 26 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CFB CBS Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Arizona Bowl between the Georgia State Panthers (259) and the Wyoming Cowboys (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-30-19 |
Virginia v. Florida OVER 54 |
Top |
28-36 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Orange Bowl between the Virginia Cavaliers (251) and the Florida Gators (252). THE SITUATION: Virginia (9-4) looks to bounce-back from their 62-17 loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game where they were 29-point underdogs back on December 7th. Florida (10-2) has won three straight games with their 40-17 win over Florida State as a 17-point favorite on November 30th. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cavaliers have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. Virginia has also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game. This is potent offense in the fourth season under head coach Bronco Mendenhall. Virginia was 42nd in the nation by averaging 32.4 PPG. They are led by senior quarterback Bryce Perkins who led the ACC by averaging 304.6 total YPG from his passing and running. He completed 27 of 43 passes for 266 yards against Clemson while adding another 58 rushing with his legs. Over their last three games, the Cavaliers have averaged 459.3 total YPG which is +69.0 net YPG above their season average. The problem for this Cavs team has been the deterioration of their play on defense. Virginia allowed only 281 total YPG in their first eight games — but injuries contributed to them surrendering 481 YPG over their last final five contests. The Cavaliers lost two starters in their secondary, senior cornerback Bryce Hall and junior safety Brenton Nelson, to season-ending injuries. Clemson racked up 619 yards of offense against Virginia with 211 of those yards coming on the ground. The Cavaliers have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after surrendering at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have also played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after giving up at least 200 rushing yards in their last contest. Over their last three games, Virginia has allowed 39.7 PPG along with 498.0 total YPG. The Cavs have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total played on a neutral field — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in bowl games. Florida has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a win at home — and they have seen the Over go 8-3-1 in their last 12 games after a point spread win. The Gators held the Seminoles to just 250 yards of offense in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 275 total yards in their last game. The Florida offense saw a season-ending injury early on to incumbent quarterback Feleipe Franks but the offense raised their level of play under the direction of junior Kyle Trask who threw 24 touchdown passes to just six interceptions in his eleven games. Over their last three games, the Gators scored 39.7 PPG while averaging 471.0 total YPG. They outgained Florida State by +217 net yards on the heels of outgaining Missouri by +130 net yards — and not only have they then played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after outgaining their last opponent by at least +125 yards but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after outgaining their last two opponents by at least +125 net yards.
FINAL TAKE: The Gators ranked 9th in the nation by allowing just 299.0 total YPG — but that number skyrocketed by +78.8 net YPG in their six games on the road. Florida has played 4 straight games Over the Total in December. 25* CFB New Year’s Day Six Bowl Total of the Year with Over the Total in the Orange Bowl between the Virginia Cavaliers (251) and the Florida Gators (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-28-19 |
Clemson v. Ohio State OVER 62.5 |
Top |
29-23 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Fiesta Bowl between the Clemson Tigers (243) and the Ohio State Buckeyes (244) in the College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Clemson (13-0) remained undefeated this season with their 62-17 win over Virginia as a 29-point favorite in the ACC Championship Game on December 7th. Ohio State (13-0) won the Big Ten Championship that same day with their 34-21 win over Wisconsin as a 16.5-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Tigers displayed the balance on offense that will make it very hard for any defense to slow them down this postseason. In generating 619 yards of offense against the Cavaliers, Clemson rushed for 211 yards while adding another 408 yards in the air. The Tigers have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Sophomore quarterback Trevor Lawrence leads a loaded offense that is 4th in the nation that scores 46.5 PPG while also ranking 3rd in the nation by averaging 547.7 total YPG. Lawrence has not thrown an interception since October 19th while producing the highest Pro Football Focus quarterback grade over the last four weeks of the regular season in all of college football. Since Week Nine of the regular season, Lawrence leads the nation with 20 touchdown passes while averaging 11.1 Yards-Per-Passing Attempt which is also best in the nation. His 214 Efficiency Rating over that span is also best in the nation. Where Lawrence has improved from leading the Tigers to the national championship as a freshman was with his mobility — he rushed for 407 yards on 77 carries while reaching the end zone seven times. Over their last three games, Clemson is scoring 50.7 PPG. And while the Buckeyes are 2nd in the nation by allowing just 148.1 passing YPG, the Tigers have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total under head coach Dabo Swinney against teams who do not allow more than 150 passing YPG. Ohio State generated 492 yards against the Badgers in the Big Ten Championship Game. The Over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Buckeyes averaged 39.3 PPG over their last three games along with 495.3 total YPG against three of the best defenses in the nation against Penn State, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Their win against the Badgers three weeks ago finished below the 58 point total — but the Buckeyes have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after coming off a game that finished below the number. And while Ohio State has only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Sophomore quarterback Justin Fields leads the Buckeyes offense that leads the nation by scoring 48.7 PPG — and they rank 5th in the nation by generating 531.0 total YPG. Fields has completed 67.5% of his passes while posting an incredible 40:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Like Lawrence, Fields can extend drives with his legs as he rushed for 471 yards with 10 touchdowns. I see more touchdowns than field goals from both teams given the wealth of weapons on offense. Ohio State has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in the rare occasions they are an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The defensive numbers of both teams have come mostly against soft competition. The Clemson defense was not tested this season — the Buckeyes will offer their most difficult challenge by far. Ohio State allowed 12.5 PPG this season — but they surrendered 21.0 PPG over their last four games. The Buckeyes’ have not played a team with as much speed as the Tigers. I am expecting both teams to reach the 30-point threshold in what should be a shootout. 25* CFB Playoff Semifinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the Fiesta Bowl between the Clemson Tigers (243) and the Ohio State Buckeyes (244). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-28-19 |
Oklahoma +14 v. LSU |
Top |
28-63 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oklahoma Sooners (241) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (242) in Peach Bowl College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (12-1) has won five straight games after defeating Baylor as a 9-point favorite by a 30-23 score on December 7th in the Big 12 Championship Game. LSU (13-0) remained undefeated this season by defeating Georgia by a 37-10 score as a 7.5-point favorite to win the SEC Championship on December 7th. This game will be played in the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SOONERS PLUS THE POINTS: This Oklahoma team is a very dangerous underdog in this spot. This is an experienced group of players and coaching staff that is more familiar with the playoff atmosphere this game will have then that of LSU. This will be the fourth CFB Playoff in the last five years for this program. And quarterback Jalen Hurts has starting experience in the CFB Playoffs with Alabama — and he is very familiar with the LSU defense as well given his two previous starts against the Tigers. Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings against teams from the SEC. The Sooners may be a more dangerous underdog this time around than they have been in the last two College Football Playoff Semifinals due to the improvement of their defense under first-year defensive coordinator Alex Grinch. After allowing 33.3 PPG along with 6.1 Yards-Per-Play last season, Oklahoma improved to giving up just 24.5 PPG along with only 5.3 YPP this year. The Sooners’ defense was 25th in the nation by allowing 330.6 total YPG fueled by a pass defense that limited their opponents to just 198.5 passing YPG which was 23rd in the nation. And this is a unit that will be very familiar facing the spread passing attack that the Tigers’ installed this season. Over their last three games, Oklahoma allowed only 21.0 PPG along with just 268.0 total YPG. The Sooners are still a very potent football team on offense as they averaged 43.2 PPG while totaling 554.2 YPG which ranked 6th and 2nd in the nation. Third-year head coach Lincoln Riley has seen his team average 41 PPG over the last two College Football Playoff Semifinals against outstanding defenses from Alabama and Georgia. In many ways, Riley’s schemes are just fancy window dressing for Oklahoma’s old school wishbone offense — they are 11th in the nation by averaging 257.2 rushing YPG. Riley is a master at designing run plays that best put his offensive line in a position to succeed. Hurts has rushed the ball at least 20 times in four of his last five games since the team suffered their lone loss of the season to Kansas State. Hurts also completed 71.8% of his passes for 3634 passing yards with 32 touchdown passes and just 7 interceptions. Hurts offers the team a genuine deep passing threat to keep opposing defenses honest as he ranked 6th in the nation with 30 completions of 30 or more yards. This combination of characteristics has helped the Sooners cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as an underdog. Oklahoma has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December. And while the Sooners have not covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. When it comes to LSU, I worry about teams that achieved so many goals in the regular season to now let their guard down just a bit. The Tigers enjoyed their best regular season in years by going undefeated to win the SEC which, of course, included a victory over Alabama. Quarterback Joe Burrow went through an emotional Heisman Trophy celebration. Does this group think they are a team of destiny now? They are facing a very feisty Sooners’ team that will be playing in this game for a third straight season. This Tigers defense is not elite after ranking just 32nd in the nation by allowing 341.3 total YPG. Even worse, in their six games away from Death Valley, LSU allowed 29.5 PPG along with 447.5 total YPG. The Tigers have struggled against teams with mobile quarterbacks like Ole Miss who jacked them for 614 total yards with 404 of that production coming on the ground. LSU gained 481 yards against the outstanding Georgia defense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. And while the Tigers have not committed a turnover in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not committing a turnover in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: While LSU is the top seed in these Semifinals, bare in mind that no number one seed has gone on to win the National Championship. I appreciate that the Sooners are out a few key players due to suspension and injury — most notably defensive end Ronnie Perkins and safety Dellarin Turner-Yell. The MVP for this Oklahoma defense is their coordinator in Grinch — and he has had time to adjust. I expect this team to rally around each other after Riley had the guts to suspend players. LSU has a big injury of their own with running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire questionable with a hamstring injury he suffered last week. At the end of the day, the Tigers are simply overvalued by the public in being asked to lay around two touchdowns. 25* College Football Playoff Game of the Year with the Oklahoma Sooners (241) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (242). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-28-19 |
Iowa State v. Notre Dame UNDER 54.5 |
Top |
9-33 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Camping World Bowl between the Iowa State Cyclones (237) and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (238). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (7-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped to end their regular season with their 27-17 upset loss at Kansas State as a 4-point favorite on November 30th. Notre Dame (10-2) has won five straight games with their 45-24 win at Stanford as a 17.5-point favorite on November 30th. This game will be played at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cyclones were crushed on the ground by the Wildcats in that game by allowing 231 rushing yards — but they have then seen the Under go 44-19-2 in their last 65 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. Iowa State only allowed 288 total yards in that game with Kansas State managing to pass for just 57 yards — and the Under is then 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after not allowing more than 170 passing yards in their last contest. The Cyclones managed only 236 yards of offense in that game — and they have averaged just 397.0 total YPG over their last three contests which is over 60 yards below their 458.7 total YPG average. The Under is 9-2-1 in Iowa State’s last 12 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Under is 6-2-1 in the Cyclones’ last 9 games against teams outside the Big 12. And Iowa State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog — and the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games played on a neutral field as an underdog. The Under is 6-0-1 in the Cyclones’ last 7 bowl game appearances — and the Under is a decisive 18-7-2 in their last 27 games played on field turf. Notre Dame has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a victory by at least 20 points. The Fighting Irish have also played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Irish have an outstanding defense that ranks 14th in the nation by allowing just 18.7 PPG — and their defense is 3rd in the FBS by allowing only 163.7 passing YPG. After losing to Michigan, Notre Dame only allowed more than 20 points just once in their last five games. They held their opponents to -86 YPG below their season offensive average — and they also ranked 7th in the nation by Expected Points Added per play. The Irish offense did slow down when playing away from South Bend as they scored just 29.8 PPG while averaging just 367.6 total YPG in their last five road games which was over a touchdown less along with over 60 yards less than their 37.1 PPG and 429.4 total YPG averages. Notre Dame has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as a favorite.
FINAL TAKE: The Fighting Irish have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total played on a neutral field — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total on a neutral field as the favorite. 25* CFB ABC-TV Bowl Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Iowa State Cyclones (237) and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (238). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-27-19 |
USC v. Iowa -2 |
Top |
24-49 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (234) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (233) in the Holiday Bowl. THE SITUATION: Iowa (9-3) has won three straight games with their 27-24 win over Nebraska as a 4-point favorite back on November 29th. USC (8-4) has also won three straight games with their 52-35 win over UCLA as a 12.5-point favorite back on November 23rd as a 12.5-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at SDCCU Stadium in San Diego.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a narrow win by 3 points or less against a Big Ten rival. And while the Hawkeyes have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last two games. This Iowa team lost their three games by a combined 14 points. This is a typical Kirk Ferentz team that is very physical with an outstanding defense and playmakers on offense. The Hawkeyes are 5th in the nation by allowing only 13.2 PPG — and they are 11th in the FBS by giving up just 304.3 total YPG. Iowa held their opponents to -81 YPG below their opponent’s season average. The offense is led by senior quarterback Nate Stanley who will be using this opportunity to bolster his NFL draft prospects. Iowa has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when given at least two weeks to prepare under Ferentz. The Hawkeyes are also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December. And in their last 8 games against teams outside the Big Ten, Iowa has covered the point spread 6 times. USC may be due for a letdown after avenging their 2018 loss to cross-town rival UCLA as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home by at least 17 points — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 19 games after a win at home over a Pac-12 opponent. Additionally, USC is just 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory so consistency is an issue for this team. This team has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning at least three straight contests. Complacency is also an issue for this program — while the program decided to retain head coach Clay Helton for a sixth season, the Trojans then brought-in the bottom rated recruiting class earlier this month. While this remains a talented team tonight, this is a group that makes too many mistakes under Helton’s leadership. USC is 111th in the nation by averaging -0.58 net turnovers per game. The Trojans are also tied for 111th in the nation by averaging 7.25 penalties per game — and they rank 124th by surrendering an average of 71.33 penalty YPG. These are the type of teams that Ferentz’s teams exploit — Iowa has covered the point spread in 35 of their last 55 games against teams that average at least 60 penalty YPG. USC also is suspect on defense with a unit that has been riddled by injuries all season. The Trojans are 84th in the nation by allowing 415.4 total YPG while also ranking 99th in the FBS by surrendering 248.9 passing YPG. USC allows their opponents to average +13 YPG above their season average — and they have allowed their last four opponents to average 34 PPG. UCLA passed for 383 yards against them a month ago — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. The Trojans rank 111th in the nation in opponent’s Success Rate on offense — and the Hawkeyes faced only one team (Rutgers) with a worse opponent Success Rate all season. USC is loaded on offense behind freshman QB Kedon Slovis and three uber-talented wide receivers. But this passing game will be tested by an Iowa defense that ranked 11th in the nation by allowing just 184.2 passing YPG. USC has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams outside the Pac-12. The Trojans have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games played on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games played in December including failing to cover their last 5 December contests.
FINAL TAKE: USC has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight bowl games while also failing to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 minor bowl games. Iowa has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 minor bowl games under Ferentz. This will be an emotional game for this Iowa program after their legendary coach, Hayden Fry, passed away ten days earlier. Ferentz took over the program from Fry in 1999 — and a victory tonight would secure the Hawkeyes’ first 10-win season since 2015. 25* CFB FS1-TV Game of the Year with the Iowa Hawkeyes (234) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (233). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-21-19 |
Liberty +6 v. Georgia Southern |
Top |
23-16 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Liberty Flames (209) plus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles in the Cure Bowl. THE SITUATION: Liberty (7-5) snapped a two-game losing streak on November 30th with their 49-28 win over New Mexico State as a 14.5-point favorite. Georgia Southern (7-5) has won two of their last three games as well as eight of their last ten contests with their 38-10 victory over Georgia State as a 6.5-point favorite on November 30th. The Cure Bowl game takes place on a neutral field in Orlando.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FLAMES PLUS THE POINTS: Liberty generated 486 yards of offense against the Aggies to close out their regular season — and they are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. These Flames are a high-scoring offense led by senior quarterback Stephen Calvert who threw for 26 touchdown passes while tossing just five interceptions. Calvert has a dynamic target in wide receiver Antonio Gandy-Golden who has 1333 receiving yards with nine touchdown receptions. Calvert leads an offense that is tied for 31st in the FBS by scoring 33.7 PPG while averaging 442.5 total YPG which is 34th in the nation. Calvert leads a passing attack that is 21st in the FBS by averaging 290.5 passing YPG. He should have success this afternoon against a suspect Eagles pass defense that allows their opponents to average 240.6 passing YPG which is 91st in the nation. This team is comfortable in getting into high scoring affairs. They have seen 82 and 77 combined points scored in their last two games — and they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after playing two straight games where at least 70 combined points were scored. Liberty has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. This team has a veteran head coach in Hugh Freeze who has dealt with adversity this season after contracting a staph infection that led to him coaching a handful of games from his bed. Look for this team to rally around their coach in this game. The knock-on this Flames team not affiliated with a conference is that they reached seven wins on one of the softest schedules in the nation. But also keep in mind that Liberty upset the same Buffalo team that easily defeated Charlotte in yesterday’s Bahamas Bowl — and Georgia Southern deploys a similar run-oriented style of offense. Being an independent also required the Flames to endure a difficult late-season four-game road trip that included trips to BYU and Virginia — so this is a battle-tested group. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games against non-conference opponents. Liberty has also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games as an underdog. Georgia Southern has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win over a Sun Belt Conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. And while the Eagles did not commit a turnover in their last victory over the Panthers, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games after not committing a turnover in their last game. Georgia Southern has won four games decided by one scoring possession with two of those victories coming in overtime — so this team was a couple of bad breaks from bot even being bowl eligible. The Eagles were outgained by -43.0 net YPG overall this season — and they were outscored by -12.5 PPG in their six games away from home while being outgained by -124.5 net YPG in those contests. Georgia Southern deploys a spread triple offense that is effective in running the ball — but things are not as smooth if quarterback Shai Werts has to throw the football with the Eagles averaging just 72.8 passing YPG which is last in the FBS with Werts averaging below 11 passing attempts per game in his ten contests.
FINAL TAKE: Georgia Southern returned fourteen starters from last year’s 10-3 team that won the Camellia Bowl over Eastern Michigan by a 23-21 score. Their motivation to prepare for this bowl game may not be as high in these preceding weeks — and the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with at least two weeks of rest and preparation. 25* CFB CBS Sports Network Game of the Year with the Liberty Flames (209) plus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles in the Cure Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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12-14-19 |
Army v. Navy UNDER 44 |
Top |
7-31 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 33 m |
Show
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At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Army Black Knights (303) and the Navy Midshipmen (304). THE SITUATION: Army (5-7) saw their two-game winning streak snapped back in their last game back on November 30th in their 52-31 loss at Hawai’i as a 2.5-point underdog. Navy (9-2) has won two straight games after their 56-41 win at Houston as a 9-point favorite back on November 30th. This game is being played on a neutral field in Philadelphia’s Lincoln Financial Field.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Black Knights surrendered 359 passing yards to the Rainbow Warriors in their last game — but they have then played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last contest. Head coach Jeff Monken will have his defense ready to play in this game as Army has played 22 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a bye week. Despite surrendering 492 total yards to Hawai’i, the Black Knights have a good defense that allows only 22.3 PPG and just 337.8 total YPG which ranks 34th and 29th best in the nation. But the struggle for this team may be on the other side of the ball as Army averages just 20.8 PPG along with 338.8 total YPG away from home which is -9.5 PPG and -59.4 YPG below their season average. The Black Knights have played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field as an underdog. Furthermore, Army has played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total in December — and they have played 27 of their last 38 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Navy surrounded 393 passing yards to the Cougars in their last game — but they have then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. The Under is also 19-7-1 in the Midshipmen’s last 27 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. Navy thrives with their run defense as they hold their opponents to only 109.7 rushing YPG which is 17th best in the nation. The most rushing yards they allowed all season was against Tulane who ran for 187 yards which was far below their 249.8 rushing YPG which is 13th best in the nation. The Midshipmen have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total in December. They also have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total playing on a neutral field as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 14 of their last 16 meetings Under the Total. With both teams deploying a spread triple option offensive attack, not only is the typical element of surprise gone for these respective offensive attacks who usually face opponents unfamiliar with their unique schemes but they are facing defenses that practice every day against their style. Army won last year’s game by a 17-10 score despite generating only 283 yards of offense with just 59 plays from scrimmage. Navy only had 208 total yards in that game on 54 plays. And in the Black Knights’ 14-13 victory in 2017, they had only 296 yards of offense on 48 plays but they limited the Midshipmen to just 241 total yards on 50 plays. 25* CFB Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Army Black Knights (303) and the Navy Midshipmen (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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12-07-19 |
Georgia +7.5 v. LSU |
Top |
10-37 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 57 m |
Show
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At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (117) plus the points versus LSU Tigers (118). THE SITUATION: Georgia (11-1) has won six straight games with their 52-7 win over Georgia Tech last week as a 28.5-point favorite. LSU (12-0) remained undefeated this season with their 50-7 win over Texas A&M last week as a 17.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Bulldogs’ biggest question mark is with their skill players on offense. Wide receiver Lawrence Cager is out the season with an ankle injury and wide receiver George Perkins will miss the first half in this game to serve out a suspension. Furthermore, running back D’Andre Swift is dealing with a shoulder injury but it looks like he will be able to play in this game. Georgia did generate 500 yards against the Yellow Jackets — and they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Bulldogs have a veteran quarterback in Jake Fromm who has the experience of a National Championship Game as well as two prior SEC Championship Games. But is the Georgia defense that should keep them in this game. They rank 2nd in the nation by allowing just 10.4 PPG — and they rank 4th in the FBS by limiting their opponents to only 257.0 total YPG. The Bulldogs also may very well have the best special teams unit in the nation. This combination of elite defense and special teams has helped Georgia cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games against conference opponents. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 9 games played on a neutral field, Georgia has covered the point spread in 8 of these contests. LSU has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. And while the Tigers held the football for 34:38 minutes against the Aggies while generating 31 first downs, LSU has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 24 first downs while controlling the clock for at least 34 minutes in their last game. The Tigers also gained 553 yards in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Remember that while LSU has been explosive on offense often this season, they narrowly got by Auburn by a 23-20 score — and the Tigers are a defense-first run team like the Bulldogs. LSU has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Georgia is a dangerous underdog that has covered the point spread in 5 straight games when getting the points since 2016 with them pulling the outright upset three times. 25* CFB Power-Five Conference Championship Game of the Year is with the Georgia Bulldogs (117) plus the points versus LSU Tigers (118). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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12-07-19 |
Hawaii +14 v. Boise State |
Top |
10-31 |
Loss |
-105 |
18 h 60 m |
Show
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At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (115) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (116). THE SITUATION: Hawai’i (9-4) has won four straight games with their 52-31 win over Army last week as a 2.5-point favorite. Boise State (11-1) has won five straight games after they defeated Colorado State on the road by a 31-24 score as a 13.5-point favorite. The Broncos earned the right to host this Mountain West Conference Championship Game with their better record.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAINBOW WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: Don’t be scared off going against home teams in conference championship games. Home teams are now just 18-20 ATS in the thirty-right times that one has hosted a conference championship contest. Only one home team covered the point spread last year in the Conference Championship games (Central Florida) with the three other home teams failing to cover the point spread with Middle Tennessee and this Boise State team losing outright despite being a home favorite. The Broncos are not a reliable big favorite as they have failed to covert point spread in 10 of their last 15 games when laying 10.5 to 21 points. Boise State has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games when laying 10.5 to 14 points. With freshman quarterback Hank Bachmeier still recovering from his shoulder injury, 5th year senior quarterback Jaylon Henderson will make his fourth straight start for this team. The Broncos are averaging 43 PPG in his three starts with the 31 points they put up last week being their lowest number — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 31 points in two straight games. Boise State was outgained by 35 yards last week by a mediocre Rams team that then let their head coach go. The Broncos surrendered 289 passing yards with Colorado State averaging 6.32 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 6.25 YPP in their last game. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last contest. This leaky pass defense presents a scary proposition when facing the Rainbow Warriors’ junior quarterback Cole McDonald that leads an offense that is 6th in the nation by averaging 332.5 passing YPG. It will be a chilly night in Boise with temperatures in the 40s — but I watched McDonald complete 31 of 36 passes for 373 yards on a cold night in Reno earlier this season against Nevada. Hawai’i has four receivers with at least 50 catches. I was also impressed with the Rainbow Warriors’ ability to move the football against a strong Army defense in what was a lame-duck game for them with this MWC Championship Game already clinched. Hawai’i gained 492 yards against the Black Knights while only having the ball for 24:40 minutes in that game — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. The Rainbow Warriors did surrender 411 rushing yards to Army’s spread triple option — but they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after allowing at least 375 rushing yards in their last game. The Hawai’i defense has improved — they held their last two conference opponents in UNLV and San Diego State to just 18 combined points along with only 4 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt. The Rainbow Warriors have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games on the road with the Total set at 63 to 70 including covering the point all three times in that situation this season.
FINAL TAKE: Boise State won the first meeting between these two teams at home by a 59-37 score back on October 12th. But Hawai’i has covered the point spread in their last 5 opportunities to exact same-season revenge. The Broncos may be taking the Rainbow Warriors lightly while dreaming of the Cotton Bowl as the Group of Five representative in the New Year’s Six bowls — but this team has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in December. Hawai’i is a very dangerous underdog giving the potency of their offensive attack. 25* CFB Underdog of the Year with the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (115) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (116). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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12-06-19 |
Oregon v. Utah UNDER 50 |
Top |
37-15 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 26 m |
Show
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At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (103) and the Utah Utes (104). THE SITUATION: Oregon (10-2) reached the Pac-12 Championship Game with their 24-10 win over Oregon State last Saturday as a 20.5-point favorite. Utah (11-1) joined them with their 45-15 win over Colorado as a 27.5-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at Levi Stadium in Santa Clara.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Utes’ gameplan is to control Time of Possession while crushing the will of their opponent in this game of keep away by employing a very physical style of defense. Utah plays the slowest tempo in the FBS while averaging 34:52 minutes per game with the football. The Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have also played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win at home. Additionally, the Utes have played 16 of their last 22 games on the road Under the Total after a win at home by at least 28 points. Utah held the Buffaloes last week to just 217 yards of offense — and they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Utes have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. Utah has not allowed more than 15 points in seven of their last eight games. Kyle Whittingham’s defense ranks third in the nation by holding their opponents to just 11.3 PPG — and they also rank 3rd in the FBS by allowing just 241.6 total YPG. The Utes have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games against Pac-12 opponents. Furthermore, Utah has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 10 points — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total on a neutral field when favored by up to 7 points. Senior quarterback Tyler Huntley will be challenged by the toughest defense that he has faced all season in this Ducks’ unit. First-year defensive coordinator Andy Avalos has done a fantastic job with a unit that returned seven starters from last year’s squad. Oregon ranks 10th in the nation by allowing just 15.8 PPG. It starts up from for the Ducks with nose guard Jordan Scott who leads a defensive line that holds their opponents to only 106.1 rushing YPG which is 10th in the nation. This stout run defense forces opponents to pass — and Oregon has picked off 17 passes this season. The Ducks have played 5 straight games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Oregon is led by senior quarterback Justin Herbert who is touted as a high NFL draft prospect but who has underperformed in big games throughout his career. While the Ducks average 452.3 total YPG at home in Autzen Stadium, that number drops by over 60 YPG to just 389.8 total YPG when they are playing on the road. Oregon has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as a dog getting 3.5 to 10 points.
FINAL TAKE: Utah played in last year’s Pac-12 Championship Game and lost to Washington by a 10-3 score. While this game should see more offense, expect another lower scoring game. 25* CFB Pac-12 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (103) and the Utah Utes (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-30-19 |
Alabama -3 v. Auburn |
Top |
45-48 |
Loss |
-114 |
11 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (397) minus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (398). THE SITUATION: Alabama (10-1) enters their final game of the regular season coming off a 66-3 warmup victory over Western Carolina last week as a 58.5-point favorite. Auburn (8-3) hosts this year’s Iron Bowl coming after their 52-0 shutout victory over Samford last week as a 45.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CRIMSON TIDE MINUS THE POINTS: The big question for Alabama is just how much of a drop-off will they experience without Tua Tagovailoa who suffered a season-ending hip injury in their win over Mississippi State. But it is pretty much situation normal for Alabama to thrive under head coach Nick Saban when they have the proverbial “game manager” under center. What made Tagavailoa such an exciting talent is that Saban had never had a quarterback quite so dynamic as him in his thirteen-year tenure in Tuscaloosa. Tagavailoa broke the NCAA record in passing efficiency last year before producing another outstanding season this year before suffering an ankle injury midseason. But remember that Alabama did plenty of winning with A.J. Mccarran and Greg McElroy as the signal-caller. Here is something that I have never written or uttered before: I think this offense will benefit from the experience of offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian. I was not a fan of his work as the OC with the Atlanta Falcons — but his Red Zone issues there did get better over time. But Sarkisian is unquestionably a wily veteran at this point in his career which includes him serving as the offensive coordinator for Alabama in the 2017 National Championship Game where they lost to Clemson by a 35-31 score. I have confidence that he can dial-up a game plan to help put sophomore Mac Jones in a position to succeed. The Crimson Tide may very well have the most talented wide receiver group in the nation with four future NFL players in Jerry Judy, Henry Ruggs III, DeVonta Smith, and Jaylen Waddle. Auburn has an outstanding defense but it is difficult for any unit to provide ample coverage to all that talent. Don’t be surprised if Sarkisian has plenty of new schemes that get the ball quickly to these talented skill position players in ways different than the skills Tagovailoa offered. It is not as if Jones lacks talent himself — of course, he was highly recruited coming out of high school (Phil Steele ranked him his #25th incoming QB). Jones has completed 28 of 34 passes for 510 yards with six touchdown passes and no interceptions in his two starts this season against Arkansas and Western Carolina. And he will get help from running back Najee Harris who has quietly averaged 6 Yards-Per-Carry. I still see an offense very similar to the one that Saban won four National Championships here at Alabama before he called on Tagovailoa to come in relief in the second half to rally his team to defeat Georgia two years ago for his fifth championship for the Crimson Tide. Alabama has still averaged 530.7 total YPG over their last three games — and they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after averaging at least 450 YPG over their last three contests. And while the Tide has averaged 8.5 Yards-Per-Play and 9.49 YPP in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after averaging at least 7.25 YPP in two straight games. Furthermore, the Alabama defense will be playing with a chip on their shoulders to make things happen. While injuries early in the season required younger players in the front seven to take on more playing time, this unit ranks 10th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 315.4 total YPG. The Crimson Tide has forced 25 turnovers this season — and they lead the nation by averaging +1.55 net turnovers per game. The weak link for this Auburn team is their offense that ranks just 54th in the nation by averaging 427.2 total YPG. While the Tigers have speed to burn at the skill positions, they are not nearly as talented at the wide receiver positions with reliable ball catchers. Furthermore, freshman quarterback Bo Nix has struggled in big games in his rookie season without the elite talent at his disposal that Jones will enjoy. In losses to Florida and LSU, Nix completed just 26 of 62 passes with just two touchdown passes and four interceptions. And while the Tigers forced Georgia to punt eleven times when hosting the Bulldogs, they still only managed 14 points in that loss. Nix completed 15 of 23 passes last week against Samford — but don’t be fooled by those numbers as he generated only 150 passing yards in that warmup game. Pro Football Focus rated that performance as the lowest-graded of all SEC quarterbacks last week — so it is safe to say that he is not entering the biggest game of his career with tons of momentum. As it is, Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a win at home. Additionally, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win at home by at least 17 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win at home by at least 28 points. Auburn’s play on defense has helped them play four straight Unders — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after playing at least two straight Unders. The Tigers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 9 points in their last game. Auburn played LSU close in a 23-20 loss — but they also survived one-possession games in wins over Oregon, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss.
FINAL TAKE: Alabama has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. Some pundits think the Tide needs a big win in this game to keep their playoff hopes alive but I suspect that all they need is a victory to remind the Playoff Committee and the potential audience in the National Semifinals that this team was on-target for one of the best seasons in college football history before their surprising 44-16 loss to Clemson in the championship game. This team remains chippy for the opportunity for a rematch — and that drive should lead them to victory this afternoon. 25* College Football Game of the Year with the Alabama Crimson Tide (397) minus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (398). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-29-19 |
Appalachian State v. Troy +11.5 |
Top |
48-13 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Troy Trojans (342) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (341). THE SITUATION: Troy (5-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their ugly 53-3 loss at Louisiana-Lafayette as a 13-point underdog. Appalachian State (10-1) has won three straight games with their 35-13 win over Texas State last week as a 28-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS PLUS THE POINTS: What happened to Troy last week. For starters, they ran into a juggernaut which is that Ragin’ Cajuns team that may very well be the best non-Power Five in the nation this year. Senior quarterback Kaleb Barker also suffered his worst game of the season by throwing two picks and completing just 15 of 32 passes. This team endured a -3 net turnover margin in that contest — but not only have they covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin but they also have covered 18 of their last 24 games after suffering a -3 or worse net turnover margin in their last contest. The Trojans were also completing a gauntlet of a schedule that had them on the road for the second straight week as well as the fourth time in five games. Troy should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a loss by at least 20 points and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after a loss by at last four touchdowns. The Trojans have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to score at least 20 points. This is a proud, veteran team that returned thirteen starters from last year’s group that finished the season 10-3. Barker leads a passing attack that remains 12th in the nation by averaging 314.0 passing YPG. They return home where they are scoring 47.8 PPG while averaging 520.0 total YPG. They are outscoring their guests by +17.4 PPG while outgaining them by +132.8 net YPG. Troy has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 home games after allowing at least 37 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games at home after allowing at least 50 points in their last contest. Appalachian State has clinched their date with Lafayette next week in the Sun Belt Conference championship game next Saturday — but they need to win this game to secure hosting that game. The Mountaineers also have a chance to represent the Group of Five schools in their automatic bid for a New Year’s Six Bowl — so they will have much to play for in this contest. Yet the pressure of the moment might put this team in a difficult situation. As it is, Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning at least eight of their last ten games. And while they outgained Texas State last week by +260 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +125 net yards.
FINAL TAKE: Troy has the talent to hang with the Mountaineers as they crushed the lone team to beat Appalachian State this year by a whopping 49-28 margin. The Trojans should put up plenty of points as they have not scored at least 30 points only twice this season. Things could have been much different for this Troy team that has lost all three of their games decided by one scoring possession. The opportunity to pull the upset offers the Trojans not only redemption from last week but a sixth win on the season to become bowl eligible while also giving them a measure of revenge from their 21-10 loss to the Mountaineers last season. 25* CFB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year with the Troy Trojans (342) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (341). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-29-19 |
Virginia Tech v. Virginia +3 |
Top |
30-39 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Virginia Cavaliers (316) plus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (315). THE SITUATION: Virginia (8-3) has won three straight games after their blowout 55-27 win over Liberty last Saturday as a 16.5-point favorite. Virginia Tech (8-3) has won three games in a row with their 28-0 win over Pittsburgh last Saturday as a 3.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS PLUS THE POINTS: The winner of this game between these two teams with 5-2 conference records wins the Coastal Division and will advance to the ACC Championship Game next week. Virginia is 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Cavaliers raced out to a 24-14 halftime lead in that contest against the Flames — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. Virginia is tough to beat when they get their offense cranking given the consistency of their defense. The Cavaliers rank 22nd in the nation by allowing only 323.2 total YPG. Virginia stays at home for this rivalry game where they are a perfect 6-0 while scoring 41.2 PPG. They are outscoring their guests by +20.0 PPG at home while outgaining them by +97.2 net YPG. The Cavaliers are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Over their last three games, Virginia is scoring 42.0 PPG while averaging a robust 476.3 total YPG. Under fourth-year head coach Bronco Mendenhall, the Cavaliers have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 10 points to an ACC rival in their last game. The Hokies have pitched two straight shutouts but these were not against the most powerful offenses in the league against the Panthers and Georgia Tech. Virginia Tech held Pittsburgh to just 177 total yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. But this remains a team that is allowing 394.0 total YPG in their four road games which is why they are being outgained by -24.0 net YPG away from home. The Hokies only generated 263 total yards last week in the win with redshirt sophomore quarterback Hendon Hooker passing for 153 yards. But Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not passing for more than 170 yards in their last game. The Hokies offense is averaging just 381.4 total YPG which is 86th in the nation. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games as the favorite.
FINAL TAKE: Virginia Tech has dominated this series having won fifteen meetings in a row going back to 2003. The Hokies pulled off a 34-31 upset win over the Cavaliers last year as a 5.5-point favorite. But with Virginia Tech feeling as much pressure in this game as the Cavs — look for the home dog to finally earn a big win in this rivalry (but take the points for some insurance). 25* CFB ACC Game of the Year with the Virginia Cavaliers (316) plus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (315). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-26-19 |
Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois +10.5 |
Top |
14-17 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Northern Illinois Huskies (304) plus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (303). THE SITUATION: Northern Illinois (4-7) has lost two of their last three games after their 45-17 upset loss to Eastern Michigan last Tuesday as a 3.5-point favorite. Western Michigan (7-4) has won three straight games with their 37-34 win in overtime at Ohio two Tuesdays ago as a 1.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: The Broncos need to win tonight’s game to clinch a spot in the Mid-American Conference championship game as the winner of the West Division — so this team will be feeling the pressure to succeed. But Western Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a loss to a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a narrow loss by 3 points or less to a MAC foe. This team has had an extra week to rest and prepare for this crucial game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after their bye week. Western Michigan has only won once away from home this season in five games — they are being outscored on the road by -12.8 PPG due to their defense surrendering 40.4 PPG along with 518.0 total YPG. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Western Michigan has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 10 points. Northern Illinois will have a losing season under first-year head coach Thomas Hammock. This game is about their pride and the opportunity to play the role of spoiler. The Huskies can also take some solace in the opportunity to avenge their 28-21 upset loss at Western Michigan last season. Northern Illinois has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to a conference rival. The Huskies have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. Despite last week’s loss, Northern Illinois is still outscoring their visitors at home by +7.0 PPG while outgaining them by +94.7 net YPG. The Huskies have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 home games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. Northern Illinois has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog getting 7 to 14 points.
FINAL TAKE: Western Michigan has not won in Dekalb since 2007 — they are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games against the Huskies while failing to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games played at Northern Illinois. 25* CFB Tuesday ESPNU Game of the Year with the Northern Illinois Huskies (304) plus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-23-19 |
Oregon v. Arizona State +13.5 |
Top |
28-31 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Arizona State Sun Devils (152) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (151). THE SITUATION: Arizona State (5-5) has lost four straight games with their 35-34 upset loss at Washington State last week as a 1-point favorite. Oregon (9-1) still has College Football Playoff aspirations after their 34-6 win over Arizona last week as a 27-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SUN DEVILS PLUS THE POINTS: The Ducks have clinched the Pac-12 North title so they will be playing in the Pac-12 Championship Game in two weeks. With the season-ending injury to Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa, Oregon might have the inside track to claim one of the four playoffs spots if they win the rest of their games — but a loss in Tempe who ruin those ambitions. Don’t be surprised if the Ducks feel the pressure in this nationally televised game at night against a feisty Sun Devils team. As it is, Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a victory by at least three touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. Quarterback Justin Herbert completed 20 of 28 passes last week for 333 yards — but Oregon is just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. And while the Ducks held the Wildcats to only 240 total yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Oregon defense has taken a step back over the last month. While allowing just 14.8 PPG and 306.1 total YPG this season which ranks 10th and 14th in the nation, the Ducks have allowed their last three opponents to score 21.7 PPG while averaging 347.0 total YPG. Oregon also allows their home hosts to average 22.0 PPG while averaging 346.5 total YPG. The Ducks have thrived with a +1.30 net turnover margin per game which is tied for second-best in the nation — but the bouncing ball can be fickle especially with the pressure on in hostile environments. Arizona State has covered the point spread in 8 of their 13 games as an underdog under head coach Herm Edwards with the Sun Devils pulling off six straight upset victories. This team has been a double-digit underdog three times in those games with them finished 2-1 ATS while upsetting Michigan State this season as a +15.5 point underdog. Additionally, since 2014, Arizona State has been a double-digit do eleven times — and they have covered the point spread 9 times while pulling off the outright upset six times. The Sun Devils should respond well from their disappointing loss last week as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a loss by 3 points or less on the road. Arizona State has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games at home after a game where both teams scored at least 31 points. The Sun Devils should be able to keep up with the Ducks with their offense that has averaged 30.7 PPG over their last three games. Freshman quarterback Jayden Daniels experienced some growing pains against the outstanding Utah defense four games — but he has since completed 69% of his passes with 9 touchdown passes and no interceptions in his three games since that start.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Expect a close game with the Sun Devils in a position to pull the upset. 25* CFB Saturday Night ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Arizona State Sun Devils (152) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (151). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-23-19 |
Michigan v. Indiana +10 |
Top |
39-14 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Indiana Hoosiers (122) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (121). THE SITUATION: Indiana (7-3) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last Saturday with their 34-27 loss at Penn State as a 15-point underdog. Michigan (8-2) has won three games in a row with their 44-10 win at home against Michigan State as a 13.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HOOSIERS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a challenging sandwich game for the Wolverines where they may be caught dealing with the emotional letdown of their big in-state rivalry game with the Spartans while possibly looking ahead to their showdown with Ohio State next week. As it is, Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. The Wolverines have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games preceding their big rivalry game with the Buckeyes — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in these last three situations under head coach Jim Harbaugh. That win against Sparty came on the heels of their 38-7 win at Maryland as a three-touchdown favorite — but the Wolverines have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in two straight games as a double-digit favorite. Furthermore, Michigan has covered the point spread in six of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in at least five of their last six games. The Wolverines offense has played better as of late — whether as a result of a better understanding of rookie offensive coordinator Josh Gattis’ principles and/or the improved health of quarterback Shea Patterson who was banged up early in the season. Patterson completed 24 of 33 passes last week for 384 yards — but not only has Michigan failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game, they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after passing for at least 375 yards in their last game. The Wolverines have scored at least 38 points in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games after scoring at least 31 points in three straight games and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 37 points in three straight contests. The Michigan defense has also played well as they have not allowed more than 14 points in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing at least 14 points in three straight contests. Now the Wolverines go back on the road where their scoring drops to 28.7 PPG. Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Indiana has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win — and they have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after winning four or five of their last six games. Peyton Ramsey was very effective last week as the new starting quarterback after the season-ending injury to Michael Penix, Jr. Ramsey completed 31 of 41 passes for 371 yards against the Nittany Lions’ defense while leading the Hoosiers to 462 yards of offense. Indiana has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards. This is a dangerous team in the third season under head coach Tom Allen. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against ranked opponents under Allen but remain hungry to pull the straight-up upset having lost their last seventeen games against ranked foes. The Hoosiers are balanced on both sides of the football as they rank 30th in the nation by averaging 448.0 total YPG while also ranking 18th in the nation by allowing just 316.3 total YPG. They return home where they are 4-1 with an average winning margin of +7.3 PPG due to an offense that scores 33.0 PPG. Indiana has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: It is Senior Day in Bloomington with the Hoosiers honoring sixteen seniors whose career will be capped by pulling the upset this afternoon. The Wolverines are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings with Indiana which includes a loss in Ann Arbor in overtime in Allen’s first year with the program. 25* CFB Big Ten Underdog of the Year with the Indiana Hoosiers (122) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (121). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-19-19 |
Ohio v. Bowling Green UNDER 57 |
Top |
66-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ohio Bobcats (101) and the Bowling Green Falcons (102). THE SITUATION: Ohio (4-6) has lost their last two games are their 37-34 upset loss at home to Western Michigan last Tuesday as a 1.5-point favorite. Bowling Green (3-7) has lost three of their last four games after their 44-3 loss at Miami (OH) as a 17-point underdog last Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bobcats are looking to salvage their season with a potential bowl bid still after getting upset in two straight games by a combined 6 points. Their loss to the Broncos finished well above the 59 point Total — and they have played 29 of their last 43 road games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Ohio has also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing a game where at least 70 combined points were scored. The Bobcats allowed 322 passing yards in that game to the Broncos — but they have then seen the Under go 24-10-1 in their last 35 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Despite that effort last week, Ohio has been playing better defense as of late. They have held their last three opponents to 368.7 total YPG which is -63.9 net YPG below their season average. Now the Bobcats go on the road where they are scoring 24.0 PPG while averaging 359.5 total YPG — and those numbers are -5.8 PPG and -51.3 net YPG below their season averages. Ohio also holds their home hosts to just 23.5 PPG which is -6.2 PPG below their season defensive average. The Bobcats have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. Ohio did rush for 216 yards last week — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. The Bobcats average 6.89 Yards-Per-Play in that contest — and they have played 25 of their last 36 road games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 5-2-1 in Ohio’s last 8 games against teams with a losing record. Bowling Green has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Bobcats have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss on the road by at least three touchdowns. Despite last week’s result, the Falcons have also played a bit better on the defensive side of the football. While Bowling Green ranks 105th in the nation by allowing 441.1 total YPG, they have held their last three opponents to just 366.3 total YPG. The Falcons have played 7 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Bowling Green does play much better defense at home where they hold their visitors to just 17.8 PPG along with only 313.6 total YPG in their five games this season. The Falcons have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total. The bigger issue for Bowling Green is their lack of productivity on offense as they rank 125th in the nation by scoring only 16.1 PPG. The Falcons have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game — and they have played 6 straight home games Under the Total after failing to score at least 14 points in their last contest. Bowling Green was trailing by a 37-3 score at halftime of that game — and they have played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total after trailing by at least 17 points at halftime of their last game.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total. Expect another lower scoring game between these two teams. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Ohio Bobcats (101) and the Bowling Green Falcons (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-16-19 |
Oklahoma v. Baylor +11 |
Top |
34-31 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (38) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (381). THE SITUATION: Baylor (9-0) remained unbeaten last week with their 29-23 win in overtime at TCU as a 1-point favorite. Oklahoma (8-1) survived a 42-41 win at home against Iowa State as a 14-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Baylor demonstrated grit to rally from a 9-0 halftime deficit on the road to a good Horned Frogs team before pulling that game out in overtime. The Bears may lose this game — but they will go down fighting in what should be a one-possession game. Baylor has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win. The Bears have struggled on offense over the last two weeks by scoring only 26 combined points in regulation over their last two games. But this remains a team that is 26th in the nation by averaging 35.3 PPG — and they score 38.4 PPG at home in Waco while generating 490.6 total YPG. Turnovers have played a role in these last two games as they have given the ball up five times in those contests. They now host this Sooners team that has not earned even one takeaway in their last five games. And what has kept head coach Matt Rhule’s team undefeated this season is the strong play of their defense. Baylor ranks 17th in the nation by allowing only 19.0 PPG — and they are 31st in the nation by allowing just 337.4 total YPG. The Bears have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in November. Oklahoma had failed to over the pint spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. The Sooners defense has been the Achilles’ heel for this program in the Lincoln Riley era — and they have allowed 903 yards of offense which has translated into 99 combined points in their last two games. The Cyclones generated 477 yards against them last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. But new concerns have developed with their offense as of late. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has become too reliant on wide receiver CeeDee Lamb as his go-to target — he has caught thirteen balls over the last two weeks — which has made the Riley offense a bit too predictable. The play of the offensive line has not been as strong as in previous seasons either with Hurts facing pressure from opposing pass rushers. Now this team goes on the road where they are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games — and they are just 1-3-1 in their last 5 road games against teams with winning record at home. Furthermore, the Sooners are just 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma is just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 road games under Riley when favored in a regular-season game. Baylor is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog in the Rhule era with five of those games resulting in an outright upset victory. The Bears are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games as a dog. 25* CFB Big 12 Underdog of the Year with the Baylor Bears (38) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (381). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-16-19 |
Minnesota v. Iowa -3 |
Top |
19-23 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (336) minus the points versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers (335). THE SITUATION: Iowa (6-3) saw their two-game losing streak snapped last Saturday with their narrow 24-22 loss at Wisconsin as a 7.5-point underdog. Minnesota (9-0) remained undefeated last week with their 31-26 upset win over Penn State as a 6.5-point home underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: It was tempting for a majority of bettors last week to fade the Golden Gophers considering a slew of factors that had them fortunate to still be unbeaten heading into their showdown with the Nittany Lions. Minnesota had orchestrated a slew of comeback victories albeit against dubious opponents like Fresno State in which they needed double overtime to win that game. Their strength of schedule had been very light with Nebraska possibly being their best opponent (according to the laptops) and Illinois offering their stiffest defensive challenge. Remarkably, the Golden Gophers had not played a full game against a team that did not need to use their backup quarterback since the second game of the season. But I still considered Minnesota a dangerous home underdog against an (overrated) Penn State team in what was their biggest game yet in the P.J. Fleck era as a head coach. Fleck is a great football coach who has quickly put his stamp on the culture of this Golden Gophers program after previously building Western Michigan into a non-Power Five conference powerhouse. Yet Minnesota was very fortunate to pull off the upset last week as they needed three interceptions in the Red Zone to stifle Nittany Lion drives and overcome getting outgained by -58 net yards. The Minnesota defense was exposed along the way by surrendering a whopping 518 yards at home to the Penn State offense. This Golden Gophers team has now won all five of their games decided by one scoring possession. But the assignment gets even tougher with this trip to Iowa City to play in Kinnick Stadium where they have not won more than once in the last thirty years. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 road games as an underdog getting no more than 7 points. The Golden Gophers has had Lady Luck on their side all season — they are 13th in the nation by averaging +0.78 net turnovers per game this year. But the bouncing football can be fickle as to where it travels — especially in hostile environments. Minnesota has won the turnover battle in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after enjoying a +1 or better turnover margin in at least two straight contests. Iowa is just 1-3 in games decided by one scoring possession — so a few lucky breaks going their way would have dramatically changed the stakes they have in this game. Yet they can still play the role of spoiler which this Hawkeyes program often relishes when playing at home. They return home after playing their last two games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after a two-game road stand. Iowa plays outstanding defense — they rank 4th in the nation by allowing just 11.7 PPG. They are 10th in the nation in total defense by surrendering only 288.9 total YPG with a balanced unit that is 20th in the FBS against the run (111.3 rushing YPG) and 10th against the pass (177.6 passing YPG). Their three losses have been decided by a mere 14 combined points. They are 4-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of +20.0 PPG due to their offense that plays much better in those friendly environments where they are scoring 30.8 PPG along averaging 453.0 total YPG. Iowa has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games as the favorite — and they are a perfect 6-0 straight-up while covering the point spread in 5 of those 6 games when favored by no more than 3 points since 2015. The Hawkeyes also do a great job in protecting the football as they have only committed two combined turnovers in their last three-games after turning the ball over once against the Badgers. Iowa has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game. And while the Hawkeyes have won the turnover battle in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning the turnover battle in at least two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: Iowa won last year’s battle for the Floyd of Rosedale Trophy with their 48-31 win at Minnesota in a game where junior quarterback Nate Stanley passed for 314 yards with four touchdowns. Stanley will certainly be confident he can lead his team to another victory today. Look for the Gophers’ luck to run out and their bubble to burst. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Year with the Iowa Hawkeyes (336) minus the points versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers (335). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-16-19 |
Georgia v. Auburn UNDER 42.5 |
Top |
21-14 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (371) and the Auburn Tigers (372). THE SITUATION: Georgia (8-1) has won three straight games since their loss to South Carolina after their 27-0 shutout victory over Missouri as an 18.5-point favorite last week. Auburn (7-2) has won two of their last three games with their 20-14 win over Ole Miss two weeks ago as a 17-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a victory by at least 20 points. Georgia has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Bulldogs sport an elite defense that has not allowed more than 20 points all season. Georgia ranks 2nd in the nation by allowing just 10.1 PPG while also ranking 5th in the nation with a total defense of 260.3 YPG. Over their last three games, the Bulldogs are giving up a mere 5.7 PPG along with just 217.7 total YPG. Georgia is growing more and more reliant on their defense as their offense is scoring -4.0 PPG over their last four games than their season average up to that point. The Bulldogs have been exposed in lacking vertical threats in their passing game which has allowed their opponents to push one of their defensive backs into the box. Over their last three games, Georgia is scoring just 24.0 PPG along with averaging only 335.7 total YPG. The Bulldogs have played 4 straight games Under the Total against conference opponents — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Georgia has also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total as the favorite. Auburn has seen the Under go 16-6-1 in their last 23 games after a point spread win. Freshman quarterback Bo Nix might have played his best game of the season last week by completing 30 of 44 passes for 340 yards while leading the Tigers offense to generate 507 total yards. But Auburn has played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Nix has still been up-and-down this season as he is completing only 56.5% of his passes. The Tigers put up big numbers against their weaker competition — but they are scoring only 20 PPG against ranked opponents while scoring just 16.5 PPG in their two losses. This Auburn team is also outstanding on the defensive side of the football. The Tigers rank 13th in the nation by allowing just 17.4 PPG while also ranking 28th in the FBS by giving up only 333.4 total YPG. In their four games at home, they are limiting their visitors to just 14.7 PPG and 286.0 total YPG. Auburn has played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They held the Rebels two weeks ago to 266 total yards — and they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Remember, Auburn limited an LSU offense that just torched Alabama to just 23 points. Moving forward, the Under is 23-10-1 in the Tigers’ last 34 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Auburn has played 35 of their last 54 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total in November.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams have defenses that are continuing to improve. Georgia has allowed -4.7 PPG over their last four games while Auburn has given up -4.0 PPG over their last four contests. These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total — expect another lower scoring game. 25* CFB SEC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (371) and the Auburn Tigers (372). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-09-19 |
Wyoming v. Boise State -12.5 |
Top |
17-20 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 10:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (156) minus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (155). THE SITUATION: Boise State (7-1) rebounded from their 3-point loss at BYU last week with a 52-42 win at San Jose State last Saturday as a 16.5-point favorite. Wyoming (6-2) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 31-3 win over Nevada as a 12-point favorite two weeks ago.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: Wyoming’s victory over the Wolf Pack was preceded by a 23-10 win at home over New Mexico the previous week — but that might be setting them up for a letdown now. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning two straight games by at least 10 points against fellow Mountain West Conference opponents. Now Wyoming goes back on the road where they are just 1-2 this season while being outgained by -98.0 total YPG. This Cowboys team typically enjoys a nice home-field advantage when playing in the high altitude in Laramie — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 40 games on the road after winning two of their last three games. Compounding the matter for this Wyoming team is that they lost their starting quarterback, Sean Chambers, to a season-ending knee injury in that victory over Nevada. Tyler Vander Waal takes over again under center after completing just 3 of 10 passes against the Wolf Pack after the Chambers injury. Vander Waal was initially the starting quarterback last year but after an 0-4 start where the Cowboys were scoring only 11.5 PPG, he was benched for Chambers. Vander Waal made nine starts last year but eclipsed 200 passing yards only twice in those games. Perhaps the biggest spark that Chambers provided this team was with his mobility — he has rushed for 567 yards with 10 touchdowns on the ground this season. Wyoming is only completing 40.6% of their passes this season so the lack of mobility with Vander Waal limits the Cowboys’ effectiveness in obvious passing situations. Wyoming will be challenged by a stout Broncos run defense that is tied for 23rd in the nation by allowing only 116.3 rushing YPG. Boise State should build off the momentum of their victory last week as they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. The Broncos have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Boise State has not covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. The Broncos did generate 468 yards last week — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. But the defense has been an issue for this team as of late as they surrendered 497 yards to the Spartans. Boise State is 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The Broncos have not allowed more than 123 rushing yards in four straight games which should serve them well against this Cowboys team — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 36 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in four straight games. Boise State returns home where they are 4-0 with an averaging winning margin of +18.8 PPG. The Broncos are scoring 37.0 PPG at home while limiting their guests to just 18.2 PPG along with only 302.2 total YPG — they are outgaining their visitors by +148.0 net YPG. Boise State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in November.
FINAL TAKE: Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points. With the Broncos still controlling their fate to reach the Mountain West Conference championship game, look for them to secure a dominant victory against an undermanned Cowboys offense. 25* CFB Saturday Night ESPN Game of the Year with the Boise State Broncos (156) minus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (155). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-09-19 |
Vanderbilt v. Florida UNDER 49.5 |
Top |
0-56 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vanderbilt Commodores (143) and the Florida Gators (144). THE SITUATION: Vanderbilt (2-6) has lost three of their last four games with their 24-7 loss at South Carolina last Saturday as a 15-point underdog. Florida (7-2) has lost two of their last three games with their 24-17 loss to Georgia last week as a 6.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Gators have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Florida’s offense sputtered last week as they managed only 278 total yards against the Bulldogs defense. The lack of a credible rushing attack is the Achilles’ heel of this Florida team — they average only 128.9 rushing YPG which is 70th in the nation. Over their last three games, the Gators are scoring 27.7 PPG while averaging just 363.0 total YPG which is far below their 30.8 PPG and 403.9 total YPG averages. Now this team returns home to Gainesville where they are 4-0 this season while playing outstanding defense. Florida has held their four guests to just 4.0 PPG along with only 237.5 total YPG. The Gators have played 6 straight games at home Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 17 home games when laying 21.5 to 28 points, Florida has played 13 of these games Under the Total. Vanderbilt has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Commodores only gained 189 yards last week against the mediocre Gamecocks defense. Junior quarterback Duece Wallace has been tapped as the starter for this game with Ball State transfer Riley Neal out for this game with a concussion. Wallace completed just 8 of 17 passes in relief last week against South Carolina for just 30 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions. Vanderbilt managed only 76 passing yards overall last week — and the Under is 11-5-1 in their last 17 games after not passing for more than 170 yards in their last game. The Commodores will struggle to score points — they are averaging just 17.0 PPG while averaging just 317.1 total YPG which rank 123rd and 115th in the nation. The Vandy rushing attack is not likely to bail Wallace out in this game either as they are averaging just 125.9 rushing YPG which is 109th in the nation. Florida is 11th in the nation by allowing only 16.7 PPG — and they also rank 31st in the FBS by giving up just 123.6 rushing YPG. The Commodores particularly struggle to move the football on the road where they are scoring only 12.3 PPG while averaging 314.7 total YPG. Vanderbilt has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. And while the Commodores have played five straight Unders, they have then played 17 of their last 23 road games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. If there is a bright spot for Mason’s team as the season progresses, it has been the improved play of their defense. Over their last three games, Vanderbilt has allowed 24.0 PPG along with 370.3 total YPG which is more than 10 points and 80 YPG below their season averages. The Commodores have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against fellow SEC opponents — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total in the month of November.
FINAL TAKE: Vanderbilt has played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total as a big underdog getting more than three touchdowns. 25* CFB Saturday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Vanderbilt Commodores (143) and the Florida Gators (144). Best of luck for us — Frank (who also will have his 25* CFB Saturday Night ESPN Game of the Year and the LSU-Alabama ATS winner as part of his Saturday CFB card).
|
11-07-19 |
Temple -1.5 v. South Florida |
Top |
17-7 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Temple Owls (111) minus the point(s) versus the South Florida Bulls (112). THE SITUATION: Temple (5-3) has lost two in a row after their 63-21 loss to Central Florida back on October 26th as an 11-point underdog. South Florida (4-4) has won three of their last four games with their 45-20 win at East Carolina as a 1-point favorite on October 26th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS MINUS THE POINTS: This is a critical game for first-year head coach Rod Carey with the bad loss at home to Central Florida preceded by a 45-21 loss at SMU the previous week. Carey does have the benefit of extra time and preparation for this game to right the proverbial ship of this Owls team. He inherited a group that has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 31 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Temple has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 39 of their last 58 games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Owls managed only 266 yards of offense against the Knights — but they have then covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. Temple also surrendered 614 yards to Central Florida in that loss — but they have then covered the point spread in 37 of their last 53 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. This remains a quality team that upset the Memphis team last month that handed the Mustangs their first loss of the season last week. The Owls have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games in November. South Florida may be due for a letdown for this game as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win. This team is also just 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games after a bye week. The Bulls’ success against the Pirates in their last game was propelled by their rushing for 347 yards which took the pressure off redshirt freshman quarterback Jordan McCloud who has been pressed into duty after the September season-ending injury to returning starter Blake Barnett. McCloud only attempted 12 passes in that victory — but South Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. The Bulls are averaging just 172.9 passing YPG which is 110th in the nation. Now South Florida returns home where they are just 2-2 this season with an average losing margin of -8.3 PPG along with being outgained by -118.5 net YPG. The Bulls have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing at home.
FINAL TAKE: South Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. They raced out to a 7-1 start last season before folding down the stretch with six straight losses where they were outscored by -19.2 PPG under head coach Charlie Strong. Look for Temple to rebound with a big win for them on the road. 5* CFB Thursday ESPN Game of the Year with the Temple Owls (111) minus the point(s) versus the South Florida Bulls (112). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-02-19 |
SMU v. Memphis OVER 71.5 |
Top |
48-54 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 7:44 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the SMU Mustangs (359) and the Memphis Tigers (360). THE SITUATION: SMU (8-0) remained undefeated this season with their 34-31 win at Houston as a 12-point favorite back on October 24th. Memphis (7-1) has won their last two games with their 42-41 win at Tulsa as a 10-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mustangs’ 34 points last week was their lowest scoring output all season — they had scored at least 37 points in each of their previous seven contests. SMU ranks 6th in the nation by scoring 43.0 PPG — and they rank 10th in the FBS by averaging 504.1 total YPG with a balanced offense that ranks 31st in the nation in averaging 202.8 rushing YPG and 17th in the nation in passing with their 301.4 passing YPG mark. Senior quarterback Shane Buechele has been a revelation for this team after transferring from Texas — he is completing 63.2% of his passes with 20 touchdown passes and seven interceptions with a loaded group of wide receivers. The Mustangs have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. This is a big-play offense that has registered plays of at least 40 yards sixteen times this season. The SMU defense has not been as sharp — they rank 68th in the nation by allowing 27.8 PPG while also ranking 60th in the FBS by allowing 387.6 total YPG. They allowed the depleted Houston offense with their top quarterback and wide receiver redshirting for next season to 510 yards of offense. The Mustangs have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. And while SMU enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in that game, they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. The Mustangs stay on the road where they have played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Memphis has played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games at home Over the Total after winning at least two straight games. The Tigers generated 498 yards in that game — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Memphis has also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last contest. Led by junior quarterback Brady White, the Tigers are 10th in the nation by averaging 39.5 PPG and they also rank 23rd in the nation by averaging 470.6 total YPG. Memphis has scored at least 35 points in six of their games while reaching at least 42 points in three of their last four games. Their lone loss was on the road at Temple against an Owls team that plays solid defense. The Tigers did surrender a whopping 584 yards last week to the Golden Hurricanes — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last contest. Memphis returns home for this big American Athletic Conference clash where they have played 35 of their last 52 home games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Tigers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in November while SMU has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in November. With ESPN’s Gameday crew taking place at Memphis for this nationally televised night game, expect a wild high scoring contest. 25* CFB Saturday Night ABC-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the SMU Mustangs (359) and the Memphis Tigers (360). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-01-19 |
Navy v. Connecticut UNDER 55.5 |
Top |
56-10 |
Loss |
-116 |
4 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Navy Midshipmen (307) and the Connecticut Huskies (308). THE SITUATION: Navy (6-1) has won four straight games after their 41-38 win over Tulane last Saturday as a 4.5-point favorite. Connecticut (2-6) snapped their six-game losing streak on Saturday with their 56-35 win at UMass as a 9.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Huskies have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. Connecticut raced out to a 35-21 lead going into halftime against the Minutemen but they have then played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after they scored at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. Don’t read too much in the 542 yards of offense that the Huskies generated last week since that was against a UMass team that is last in the FBS in total defense. Take away Connecticut’s numbers in their two victories against UMass (probably wth worst team in the FBS) and Wagner (an FCS school) — and the Huskies are scoring only 15.5 PPG along with just 303.5 total YPG while never scoring more than 23 points in their six losses. Connecticut returns home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Huskies have played 13 of their last 15 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. And in their last 6 games as an underdog in the 21.5 to 31 point range, Connecticut has played 5 of these games Under the Total. Navy allowed 290 passing yards last week to the Green Wave — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. They also have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 37 points in their last game. First-year defensive coordinator Brian Newberry has the Midshipmen defense playing at a very high level once again — they are 19th in the FBS by allowing only 19.3 PPG while also ranking 22nd in the nation by giving up just 310.3 total YPG. They will be encountering a freshman quarterback in Jack Zergiotis who was helped out last week by running back Kevin Mensah who rushed for 164 yards while reaching the end zone five times. Head coach Randy Edsall wants his team to play physical where they control the Time of Possession: they are averaging 33 minutes per game on offense after holding the ball for 34:58 last week against UMass. But they now face a Navy defense that limits opposing rushers to just 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry while ranking 18th in the nation by allowing only 109.6 rushing YPG. And the Midshipmen formula for success is also controlling the clock as they average 33:39 minutes with the ball per game. Navy has generated 454 and 457 yards over their last two games while averaging 6.98 Yards-Per-Play and 7.25 YPP in those contests. The Midshipmen have then played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in two straight games — and they have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in two straight games. Navy has also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last contest.
FINAL TAKE: The Midshipmen’s spread triple option has propelled them to leading the nation by averaging 350.7 rushing YPG — and this is how they control the Time of Possession statistic. Navy only passed for 68 yards last week — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after failing to pass for at least 125 yards in their last game. 25* CFB Friday ESPN2 Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Navy Midshipmen (307) and the Connecticut Huskies (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-31-19 |
Georgia Southern v. Appalachian State -14 |
Top |
24-21 |
Loss |
-108 |
2 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Appalachian State Mountaineers (304) minus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (303). THE SITUATION: Appalachian State (7-0) remained undefeated this season with their 30-3 win at South Alabama last Saturday as a 27.5-point favorite. Georgia Southern (4-3) has won three straight games after their 41-7 win over New Mexico State as a 13.5-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Appalachian State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after win on the road against a conference rival. The Mountaineers have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win by at least 20 points. This is a loaded team for first-year head coach Eyah Drinkowitz with fifteen starters back from the group that finished 11-2 last year. Reigning Sun Belt Conference Offensive Player of the Year, quarterback Zac Thomas, is completing 66.7% of his passes this season while averaging 7.6 Yards-Per-Pass Attempt. Appalachian State is 9th in the nation by averaging 41.0 PPG. While Thomas has kept opposing defenses honest with his arm, the Mountaineers are 14th in the nation by averaging 244.1 rushing YPG. On defense, Appalachian State is 18th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 19.0 PPG. The Mountaineers held the Jaguars last week to just 139 total yards — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Appalachian State has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Mountaineers return home where they are 4-0 while outscoring their opponents by +27.5 PPG due to their offense that is averaging 51.5 PPG along with 476.0 total YPG. Appalachian State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Georgia Southern is considered better than their record given injuries they sustained in the early part of the season — headlined by three-year starter Shai Werts at quarterback. Werts’ return to the field helped trigger their three-game winning streak — but this team was fortunate to survive a two overtime game with South Alabama and a three overtime thriller with Coastal Carolina before their easy win over the Aggies last week. The Eagles have rushed for at least 310 yards in three straight games while outrushing all three of these opponents by at least 175 yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after rushing for at least 225 yards in two straight games and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after outrushing their last two opponents by at least 125 yards. But Georgia Southern is one dimensional as they are averaging just 48.7 passing YPG which is last in the nation. They will be trying to run against a solid Mountaineers run defense that holds their opponents to just 3.89 Yards-Per-Carry. Now the Eagles go back on the road where they are just 1-2 while being outscored by -17.4 PPG and being outgained by -139 total YPG. Georgia Southern has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when playing on field turf.
FINAL TAKE: Appalachian State has won thirteen straight games with their last loss being at Georgia Southern where they were upset by a 34-14 score despite being an 11-point favorite back on October 25th. The Mountaineers should be very motivated to avenge that loss — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games when laying 10.5 to 21 points. 25* CFB Thursday ESPNU Game of the Year with the Appalachian State Mountaineers (304) minus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-26-19 |
Colorado State v. Fresno State UNDER 56.5 |
Top |
41-31 |
Loss |
-109 |
9 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado State Rams (155) and the Fresno State Bulldogs (156). THE SITUATION: Colorado State (2-5) takes the field again after their bye week after their 35-21 win at New Mexico as a 5-point favorite back on October 11th. Fresno State (3-3) comes off a 56-27 win over UNLV last Saturday as a 16-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a double-digit win over a Mountain West Conference rival — and they have played 8 straight games Under the Total after a win at home by at least 17 points. Fresno State has also played 6 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Bulldogs defense has been a disappointment this season after they allowed only 321.6 total YPG which was 17th in the nation. Six starters are back from that unit but they are allowing 370.3 total YPG which is 54th best in the FBS. That number does drop to just 346.3 total YPG in their three games at home this season which helps explain why they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, Fresno State has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Colorado State has played 5 straight games Under the Total after losing four or five of their last six games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Junior quarterback Patrick O’Brien completed 25 of 34 passes for 420 yards against the hapless Lobos defense two weeks ago while leading the Rams’ offense to 551 total yards of offense. But Colorado State has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after passing for at least 350 yards — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after gaining at least 525 yards in their last contest. The Rams are averaging a robust 470.1 total YPG this season which is 21st best in the nation — but that number does drop almost by 30 when they are playing on the road where they are averaging 442.2 total YPG. Colorado State ranks 13th in the nation by allowing just 177.0 passing YPG but that number has been skewed a bit by them playing some run-oriented opponents. Teams can run on the Rams defense as they rank 121st in the nation by allowing 220.7 rushing YPG. New Mexico rushed for 256 yards against them while outgaining them on the ground by +125 net rushing yards — and this focus on the rushing game helped keep the clock moving to achieve the Under in that game. Colorado State has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after being outrushed by at least 125 yards in their last contest. Over their last three games. head coach Mike Bobo’s team is scoring only 23.0 PPG while averaging just 360.7 total YPG — but they have also only allowed 26.3 PPG (-8.0 PPG below their season average) along with just 342.3 total YPG (-55.4 net YPG below their season average).
FINAL TAKE: Colorado State has played 6 straight games in Mountain West Conference play Under the Total — and Fresno State has played 21 of their last 27 games Under the Total in MWC play. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* CFB ESPNU Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado State Rams (155) and the Fresno State Bulldogs (156). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-26-19 |
Missouri -9.5 v. Kentucky |
Top |
7-29 |
Loss |
-109 |
2 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Missouri Tigers (157) minus the points versus the At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Missouri Tigers (157) minus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (158). THE SITUATION: Missouri (5-2) looks to bounce-back from their 21-14 upset loss at Vanderbilt last Saturday as a 21-point favorite. Kentucky (3-4) comes off a 21-0 loss at Georgia last Saturday as a 23.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: It took me some time to get exactly to the bottom of the Kentucky quarterback situation. Junior quarterback Terry Wilson suffered a likely season-ending knee injury in the first month of the season. Junior Sawyer Smith became the starter under center after but he got banged up with shoulder and wrist injuries that compelled head coach Mark Stoops to move wide receiver Lynn Bowden, Jr. to be his starting quarterback given the season-ending injury to freshman Nik Scalzo who was third on the depth chart to the begin the season. This is a case of Stoops putting the football in the hands of his best offensive talent — and he did look dynamic in rushing for 99 yards on 17 carries against the Bulldogs defense last week. But Bowden only completed 2 of his 17 passes in that game for 17 yards. Admittedly, the weather conditions were challenging for the passing game with the rain and high winds — but how much can we expect in the passing game from a converted wide receiver. Smith was suited up to play in that Georgia game but Stoops indicated that he did not feel comfortable playing him in that bad weather. Smith is on the injured list this week as questionable with a bye week coming up for Kentucky — so what is the deal with them at QB this week? Mum is the word as of this late afternoon — but I have decided this situation is worthy of a strong investment. I suspect both quarterbacks will play tonight. Even is Smith plays, he is completing only 46.2% of his passes while averaging just 5.7 Yards-Per-Attempt with four TD passes and five interceptions. I don’t have confidence in Bowden operating the passing game — so this is a one-dimensional offense that will be playing Mizzou. That is not a good sign for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Now the Wildcats return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games in the second half of the season. Kentucky has covered the point spread in two straight games as well as five of their seven games this season. But the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Kentucky is covering point spreads due to their defense ranks 47th in the nation by allowing just 23.3 PPG. And while the Wildcats have allowed just 122 and 35 passing yards in each of their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after not allowing more than 125 passing yards in two straight contests. Missouri should be primed for a big effort as they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after an upset loss on the road where they were laying at least 7 points. The Tigers have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss while they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Senior quarterback Kelly Bryant played one of his worst games in a Missouri uniform by completing just 13 of 26 passes for 140 yards — but the former Clemson quarterback did rush for 72 yards. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. Mizzou should score their share of points — but it is their outstanding defense that should lead the way for them tonight. The Tigers are 14th in the nation by allowing just 16.6 PPG — and they rank 7th in the nation by giving up just 270.1 total YPG. This is a balanced defensive unit that ranks 26th in the nation in run defense and 6th in the nation in pass defense.
FINAL TAKE: Missouri should be able to rely on the cover skills of their defensive backs to then stuff the box to stop the Wildcats run while shadowing Bowden for his potential running plays from the pocket. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. 5* CFB SEC Game of the Month with the Missouri Tigers (157) minus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (158). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-26-19 |
Oklahoma State +10.5 v. Iowa State |
Top |
34-27 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oklahoma State Cowboys (169) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (170). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (4-3) has suffered two straight upset losses after their 45-27 loss at home to Baylor last Saturday as a 5.5-point favorite. Iowa State (5-2) has won three straight games with their 34-24 win at Texas Tech as a 10-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma State feels like they left one slip after holding a 4th quarter lead over the Bears before allowing them to score 21 straight points over the final 10 minutes of that game. That loss came on the heels of a 45-35 upset loss at Texas Tech as a 9.5-point favorite the previous week. The Cowboys should respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset loss by at least two touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a double-digit loss a tome. And while the Cowboys have lost three of their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after losing three of their last four games. Oklahoma State needs to tighten up on defense after allowing 536 yards to Baylor last week — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Turnovers are also killing this team — they have turned the ball over eight times over the last two weeks and their -2 net turnover margin last week was punctuated by allowing a 20-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown. The Cowboys are tied for 123rd in the nation with a -1.29 net turnover margin per game — but the Regression Gods tend to intervene when numbers like that get too skewed. Oklahoma State has not forced more than one turnover in three straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to force more than one turnover in three straight contests. The Cowboys are led by running back Chuba Hubbard who leads the nation with 1265 rushing yards this season — he is averaging a remarkable 180.7 rushing YPG. He leads the way for an Oklahoma State offense that is 7th in the FBS by averaging 519.9 total YPG. This offense travels — they are scoring 39.2 PPG while averaging 516.0 total YPG away from home. The Cowboys are dangerous underdogs with their powerful offense — they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games as the underdog. Oklahoma State has also covered the point spread in 35 of their last 53 games with the Total set in expected high scoring games with the Toal set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. Iowa State has won three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They are also just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win. Sophomore quarterback Brock Purdy completed 23 of 32 passes for 378 yards last week against the Red Raiders while leading the offense to 564 total yards. But the Cyclones have failed to move the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after passing for at least 375 passing yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 525 total yards in their last contest. Additionally, Iowa State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when favored by 10.5 to 21 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Cyclones may not be able to help themselves to look ahead to their off week coming up after this game before showdowns with Texas and Oklahoma — and they are feeling good about themselves with their new Top-25 ranking. But the Cowboys will remember their 48-42 upset loss at home to Iowa State last season as a 10-point favorite. Expect a close game where Oklahoma State will be in a position to pull the upset. 25* College Football Underdog of the Month with the Oklahoma State Cowboys (169) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (170). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-25-19 |
USC v. Colorado UNDER 64.5 |
Top |
35-31 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the USC Trojans (105) and the Colorado Buffaloes (106). THE SITUATION: USC (4-3) snapped their two-game losing streak last Saturday with their 41-14 win over Arizona at home as a 10.5-point favorite. Colorado (3-4) has lost there straight games after their 41-10 loss at Washington State as a 13.5-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Trojans have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. USC has also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. This Trojans team has been riddled with injuries which leaves them with a freshman at quarterback and tailback for tonight’s game. True freshman Kedon Slovis is under center for the team after the injuries to sophomore quarterbacks J.T. Daniels and Jack Sears. At running back, injuries junior Stephen Carr, junior Vavaeu Malepeai, and freshman Markese Stepp who is not out three to five weeks with an ankle injury leave the primary rushing duties to freshman Kenan Christon. Admittedly, Slovis has played well this season and Christon had 100 rushing yards last week but the challenge will be different for these inexperienced players when playing in a hostile environment — especially in a televised night game. While USC averages 30.7 PPG and 434.1 total YPG this season, those numbers drop to just 22.7 PPG along with 417.7 total YPG. The Trojans have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, USC has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against Pac-12 opponents — and they have also played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. Colorado is struggling on offense after gaining only 320 yards against the Cougars defense last week. The Buffaloes are averaging just 14.3 PPG along with only 371.7 total YPG which are both well below their 26.6 PPG and 407.7 total YPG averages. Colorado has then played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. The Buffaloes have allowed at least 31 points in four straight games — but they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 31 points in two straight games. Colorado does return home after playing two straight games as well as three of their last four games on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And while the Buffaloes surrendered 368 passing yards to Washington State last week, they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Colorado has played 14 of the last 20 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in October. First-year head coach Mel Tucker was an outstanding defensive coordinator at Georgia and Alabama so I still have confidence he will get his young defense to play better in the second half of the season. 25* CFB Friday ESPN2 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the USC Trojans (105) and the Colorado Buffaloes (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-24-19 |
SMU v. Houston UNDER 65.5 |
Top |
34-31 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 46 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between SMU Mustangs (103) and the Houston Cougars (104). THE SITUATION: SMU (7-0) remained undefeated this season with their 45-21 win at home against Temple as a 9-point favorite on Saturday. Houston (3-4) enters this game coming off a 24-17 win at UConn as a 21-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cougars changed their priorities this season after their 38-31 loss at Tulane that dropped them to 1-3 this season. First-year head coach was then reported to ask a number of his players to redshirt the rest of the season so as they could retain their eligibility for next season. Senior quarterback D’Eriq King and senior wide receiver Keith Corbin were two of the players to decide to remain their eligibility for next season. Some have called this the college version of tanking although Houston has since won two of their last three games. Frankly, Holgorsen still has every incentive to win games — especially on national television — to help with recruiting. But he needs to change his style of play with his top playmakers on offense being saved for next season. His son, Logan, was the starter last week against the Huskies where they managed only 286 yards of offense against a UConn team that had allowed at least 31 points in their previous five games. The freshman will likely give way to sophomore Clayton Thune who was out that game with a hamstring injury. The sophomore is completing only 53.2% of his passes this season. Holgorsen has seen his offense pass the ball less since King redshirted as Houston has attempted 20, 30, and 18 passes in each of their last three games. The Cougars have run the ball in 61% of their plays from scrimmage since the King and Corbin redshirt decisions — and running the football will likely remain the formula tonight to keep the powerful Mustangs offense off the field. Houston has averaged 355.7 total YPG over their last three games which is almost 40 YPG below their 393.6 total YPG season average. The Cougars have seen better numbers on defense in those three games as they have held those opponents to 26.7 PPG along with 429.3 total YPG which is high but is still over 40 yards below their 470.3 total YPG average for the season. Houston has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a victory where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite. The Cougars have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. SMU has seen improved play with their defense as well this season with nine starters and eight of their top eleven tacklers from last year back. The Mustangs allowed 35.3 PPG along with 429.8 total YPG last year — and those numbers have dropped to a 27.3 PPG mark this season along with 370.1 total YPG (54th in the FBS). After not allowing more than 32 points in five of their last six games last season, SMU has allowed more than 30 points just twice this year. The Mustangs have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after winning two straight games against conference opponents. And while senior quarterback Shane Buechele attempted 53 passes last week, SMU has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after attempted at least 50 passes in their last game. And while the Mustangs generated 655 yards of offense against the Owls last week, they have then played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after gaining at least 500 yards in their last game. Additionally, SMU has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total played on field turf — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in October.
FINAL TAKE: Even undermanned, the Cougars will be fired up to play this game after they were upset by the Mustangs by a 45-31 scored as a two-touchdown favorite last November. These two teams have now played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total. With the Total set in the upper-60s, expect a lower scoring game. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between SMU Mustangs (103) and the Houston Cougars (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-19-19 |
Oregon v. Washington UNDER 49 |
Top |
35-31 |
Loss |
-114 |
0 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (367) and the Washington Huskies (368). THE SITUATION: Oregon (5-1) has won four games in a row with their 45-3 win over Colorado last Friday as a 23.5-point favorite. Washington (5-2) comes off a 51-27 win at Arizona last Saturday as a 6-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ducks have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a victory by at least 20 points. Oregon has also played 7 straight games on the road Under the Total after a victory — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread win. This team is playing outstanding defense under first-year defensive coordinator Andy Avalos who came over from Boise State. The Ducks rank 3rd in the nation by allowing just 8.7 PPG — and they also rank 8th in the nation by surrendering only 267.7 total YPG. Oregon has not allowed more than 7 points in five straight games — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 7 points in their last contest. The Ducks are averaging 36.0 PPG on offense led by their NFL prospect at quarterback in Justin Herbert. But in their two games on the road — both against quality defenses — Oregon sees their scoring average drop to just 21.0 PPG along with averaging only 326.0 total YPG. A big concern for this team is their Red Zone offense where they rank just 102nd in the nation. The Ducks have played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Oregon did support their defense last week by rushing for 252 yards against the Buffaloes — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Ducks have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Washington has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Huskies have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win versus a Pac-12 rival — and the Under is 11-5-1 in their last 17 games after a win by at least 20 points. This Washington team also plays very good defense — they rank 28th in the nation by allowing only 19.6 PPG. Visitors are scoring only 17.0 PPG at Husky Stadium while averaging just 336.7 total YPG. Washington has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Huskies’ offense has been inconsistent — they rank just 57th in the nation by averaging 423.1 total YPG. They did rush for 207 yards last week at Arizona — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards. Additionally, Washington has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have played 19 of their last 26 home games Under the Total after scoring at least 42 points in their last contest.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing at Washington. And the forecasts call for rain this afternoon which will make both Herbert and the Huskies’ Jacob Eason uncomfortable. 25* CFB Saturday ABC-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (367) and the Washington Huskies (368). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-19-19 |
Purdue v. Iowa -17 |
Top |
20-26 |
Loss |
-112 |
3 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (344) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (343). THE SITUATION: Iowa (4-2) has lost two straight games after their 17-12 loss at home to Penn State last Saturday as a 3.5-point underdog. Purdue (2-4) comes off a 40-14 upset win over Maryland last Saturday as a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa has faced a difficult track as of late with a trip to Ann Arbor to face Michigan in which they lost by a 10-3 score where they were 4.5-point underdogs before hosting the Nittany Lions last week. The Hawkeyes outplayed Penn State for most of that game as they outgained them by a 356 to 294 yardage margin. A -2 net turnover margin played a large role in dooming Iowa last week. Iowa should respond with a big effort this afternoon. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after only covering the point spread once in their last three games. Iowa should get their offense going again against this suspect Boilermakers' defense after facing two of the toughest defenses in the nation. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. Iowa has only rushed for 71 combined yards over their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to rush for at least 125 yards in two straight games. Iowa is still averaging 32.0 PPG at home this season where they are generating a robust 475.7 total YPG. Senior quarterback Nate Stanley is leading an offense that is averaging a healthy 256.0 passing YPG. Purdue may be just what the proverbial doctor ordered as they are allowing 29.8 PPG — and they rank 104th in the nation by allowing 444.5 total YPG due to a porous pass defense that is giving up 278.0 passing YPG which is 112th in the nation. The strength of this Hawkeyes team is their defense — they rank 5th in the nation respectively by allowing only 10.2 PPG and just 260.8 total YPG. At home in Kinnick Stadium, Iowa is limiting their guests to just 8.5 PPG along with 220.0 total YPG. The Hawkeyes did not force a turnover last week — but they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 home games after failing to force at least one turnover in their last game. Iowa has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. Purdue came off a surprising performance at home against the Terrapins — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after an upset victory by at least three touchdowns. The Boilermakers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win by at least 20 points. This Boilermakers team is ravaged with injuries right now — headlined by their senior quarterback, Elijah Sindelar, out the season with a collarbone injury and their All-American wide receiver, Mondale Moore, still out with a leg injury. Redshirt freshman Jack Plummer stepped up last week by completing 33 of 41 passes for 420 yards with three touchdown passes to lead an offense that generated 547 total yards. But the assignment is much tougher this week on the road against this Hawkeyes defense. Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards. And the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 road games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Purdue is also undermanned on defense with senior defensive tackle Lorenzo Neal and senior linebacker Markus Bailey (who bypassed leaving early for the NFL last year) out for the season. These absences hurt a defense that is giving up 34.5 PPG. Iowa should come close to scoring at least 35 points in this game — and their defense will not allow many points to a freshman quarterback. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Iowa Hawkeyes (344) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (343). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-18-19 |
UNLV v. Fresno State -14.5 |
Top |
27-56 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (316) minus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (315). THE SITUATION: Fresno State (2-3) looks to bounce-back from their 43-24 loss at Air Force last Saturday as a 2.5-point underdog. UNLV (2-4) looks to build off their 34-10 win at Vanderbilt as a 16.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: The Rebels pulled off one of the biggest victories in the five-year tenure of head coach Tony Sanchez — but he is still on the hot seat with this being a “bowl or bust” season for him. UNLV is due for an emotional letdown after pulling off that upset against a team from the SEC. The Rebels have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after an upset victory as a road underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset win as a double-digit underdog. UNLV has also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after a win on the road. As it is, the Rebels have been consistently inconsistent under Sanchez as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread victory. Defense remains an issue for this team that has allowed at least 30 PPG and over 420 total YPG in every season since 2008. This year, UNLV is tied for 108th in the nation by allowing 32.8 PPG — and they are also giving up 431.8 total YPG which is 98th in the nation. In their two conference games this year, the Rebels are allowing 45.5 PPG along with 502.5 total YPG. This sketchy defensive play will put the pressure on redshirt freshman quarterback Kenyon Oblad who will once again be under center given the knee injury suffered by Armani Rogers in late September. Rogers is available to play tonight but Sanchez tapped Oblad as his starter yesterday. UNLV had failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 road games against teams who are not winning more than 50% of their games at home. The Rebels are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games in conference play. Fresno State went into halftime last week with a 24-22 lead before getting dominated by the Air Force ground game that kept the Bulldogs off the field. They had only 13 offensive plays in the second half while averaging just 1.3 Yards-Per-Play. The Bulldogs managed only 12 first downs in that game while being on offense for just 20:31 minutes — but this team has covered the point spread 8 of their last 12 games after failing to generate at least 13 first downs and being on offense for at least 26 minutes. Fresno State is also 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games after a straight-up up loss. They should be able to run the ball behind Ronnie Rivers (253 rushing yards this season) to get the tempo of the game back in their favor — UNLV ranks 113th in the nation by allowing 209.7 rushing YPG. The Bulldogs managed only 268 yards last week — but they are 22-6-1 ATS in their last 29 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. Fresno State is scoring 34.5 PPG at home while averaging 408.0 total YPG — and they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games at home. They are also 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: Third-year head coach Jeff Tedford has done a great job with this program — his teams won 22 games in his first two seasons. This year would be a challenge with only nine starters returning from last year’s Mountain West Conference champions. Fresno State crushed UNLV in Las Vegas last year by a 48-3 score — and they are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games in the month of October. With two non-conference losses against quality teams in Minnesota and USC, the Bulldogs still can salvage their season in their second MWC game — but it starts with a big win tonight. 25* CFB Friday CBS Sports Network Game of the Year with the Fresno State Bulldogs (316) minus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (315). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-17-19 |
UL-Lafayette v. Arkansas State UNDER 68.5 |
Top |
37-20 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (305) and the Arkansas State Red Wolves (306). THE SITUATION: Louisiana (4-2) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last Wednesday with their 17-7 loss at home to Appalachian State as a 1.5-point favorite. Arkansas State (3-3) had their two-game winning streak end back on October 5th with their 52-38 upset loss at Georgia State as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Red Wolves have played 10 of their last fourteen games Under the Total after a loss. This has lost their starting quarterback for the season after Logan Bonner’s thumb injury at the end of September. Redshirt freshman quarterback Layne Hatcher has been solid — he completed 21 of 32 passes against the Panthers for 299 yards with four touchdown passes but he also tossed two interceptions in that upset loss. But Arkansas State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Red Wolves surrendered a whopping 722 yards in that game to Georgia State with sixth-year head coach Blake Anderson likely learning that he cannot have his team get in a shootout with Hatcher under center. Arkansas State has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last contest. The Red Wolves defense has been a mess this season as they are giving up 535.8 total YPG. But injuries have played a factor — and this team will receive a boost tonight with the return of senior defensive tackle Kevin Thurmon who has missed the last two games with a hand injury. Moving forward, Arkansas State has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total against Sun Belt Conference opponents — and the Under is also 43-18-2 in their last 63 games against teams with a winning record. Louisiana has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow Sun Belt foes. They managed only 254 yards of offense last week against the Mountaineers. Junior quarterback Levi Lewis completed 13 of 24 passes but for only 131 yards. The Ragin’ Cajuns are likely to rely on their ground game which ranks 6th in the nation by averaging 282.2 rushing YPG. Louisiana is 14th in the nation by averaging 492.2 total YPG — but those numbers drop by almost 40 yards per game when they are playing away from home. The biggest improvement with this team is on defense where they returned seven starters from last year’s team that allowed 34.2 PPG (105th in the nation) along with 435.59 total YPG (97th in the FBS). This season, the Ragin’ Cajuns are 43rd in the nation by allowing just 344.8 total YPG — and they rank 32nd in the FBS by giving up just 20.7 PPG. Furthermore, the Under is 7-3-1 in Louisiana’s last 11 games in the month of October.
FINAL TAKE: Arkansas State will be looking to avenge a 47-43 upset loss at Louisiana last year that ultimately cost them the opportunity to play in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game. To get revenge tonight, head coach Anderson will likely conclude that he needs to slow this game down to protect his defense. The Ragin’ Cajuns will also be looking to run the ball — expect a lower scoring game with the Total set in the high 60s. 25* CFB Thursday ESPNU Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (305) and the Arkansas State Red Wolves (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-16-19 |
South Alabama v. Troy -14.5 |
Top |
13-37 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Troy Trojans (302) minus the points versus the South Alabama Jaguars (301). THE SITUATION: Troy (2-3) has lost two straight games after their 42-10 loss at Missouri as a 25.5-point underdog back on October 5th. South Alabama (1-5) has lost four straight games with their 20-17 loss in overtime to Georgia Southern as a 10-point underdog back on October 3rd.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS MINUS THE POINTS: Troy needs to establish some momentum in Sun Belt Conference action after suffering two previous upset losses to Southern Mississippi and against conference rival Arkansas State already this season. Thirteen starters returned from last year’s team that finished 10-3 after a 42-32 win over Buffalo in the Dollar General Bowl. Things have been a bit rocky for first-year head coach Chip Lindsey who took over for Neal Brown who took the head coaching job at West Virginia. But talent remains on this team — and a conference championship is still in reach as well as another bowl appearance. The Trojans have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Getting senior quarterback Kaleb Barker back under center will help — he was knocked out of the game with the Tigers but he has been upgraded to probable with the extra time to prepare for this game. Troy has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game — and they are 36th in the nation in both scoring (34.6 PPG) and total yardage (450.8 YPG). The Trojans return home where they are scoring 42.7 PPG while averaging 521.7 total YPG. Troy needs to tighten up on defense — but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The weakness for the Trojans defense is against the pass where they are allowing 308.6 passing YPG which is 124th in the FBS. But the Jaguars are not a dynamic passing team as they average just 149.0 passing YPG which is 121st in the nation. Their quarterback, Cephus Johnson, is completing only 53.6% of his passes with five touchdown passes and five interceptions. South Alabama will have trouble running the ball against this Troy defense that is 14th in the nation by allowing just 93.9 rushing YPG. The Trojans are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a losing record — and they are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games against Sun Belt foes. The Jaguars come off their best game of the season in that narrow loss to the Eagles — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games after a point spread victory. South Alabama gained only 247 yards in that game — and 135 of those yards came on two long plays. The Jaguars had only four first downs against the Georgia Southern defense (four — not a typo!). On paper, the South Alabama defense looks stout as they rank 35th in the nation by allowing just 199.3 passing YPG — but those numbers are skewed after last week when the Eagles were happy to rush the ball 66 times for 310 yards. The Jaguars are 106th in the nation by allowing 200.8 rushing YPG. Troy should be able to pass the ball against this South Alabama pass defense that allows opposing quarterbacks to complete 64.3% of their passes while averaging 8.5 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt. Now the Jaguars go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams with a losing record at home. South Alabama has turned the ball over 13 times already this season — so this nationally televised night game in a hostile environment could be challenging for them.
FINAL TAKE: Troy won last year’s Battle of the Belt last season at South Alabama by a 38-17 score — but they will still be motivated to avenge a 19-8 loss at home to the Jaguars despite being a 19-point favorite in 2017. This shapes up to be a “get right” game for Troy against a weak South Alabama team whose only win was against Jackson State. 25* CFB Wednesday ESPN2 Game of the Year with the Troy Trojans (302) minus the points versus the South Alabama Jaguars (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-12-19 |
Wyoming v. San Diego State UNDER 38.5 |
Top |
22-26 |
Loss |
-103 |
10 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Wyoming Cowboys (205) and the San Diego State Aztecs (206). THE SITUATION: Wyoming (4-1) takes the field again after their 53-17 win over UNLV two weeks ago as an 8-point favorite. San Diego State (4-1) looks to build off their 24-10 win at Colorado State as a 6.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while Wyoming generated 498 yards of offense against the Rebels, the Under is then 22-7-1 in their last 30 games after generating at least 450 yards in their last game. The Cowboys want to run the ball as they are 2nd in the MWC by averaging 248.2 rushing YPG — but they will be running into a buzzsaw with this Aztecs defense. San Diego State leads the nation by allowing only 45.4 rushing YPG — and they are second in the FBS by limiting rushers to just 1.79 Yards-Per-Carry. The Aztecs have not allowed a team to rush for more than 82 yards this season. Wyoming goes back on the road where the Under is 9-1-1 in their last 11 games. The Under is also 11-2-1 in their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Cowboys have played 11 of their last 15 games against MWC opponents — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the month of October. San Diego State has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win. The Aztecs held the Rams to just 235 yards of offense in that win — and not only have they then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game but they have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest. But San Diego State managed only 238 yards last week — and the Under is also 12-3-1 in their last 16 games after a game where they did not gain more than 275 yards. Injuries have slowed down the Aztecs ground game — they are only averaging 2.98 YPC which is 123rd in the nation while generating just 134 rushing YPG. This has placed more of the weight of the offense on the arm of senior quarterback Ryan Agnew who is solid but certainly not a spectacular gunslinger. San Diego State averages only 187 passing YPG — and head coach Rocky Long will not have his team deviate much from his run-oriented game plan. The Aztecs are scorn only 20.2 PPG this season — and that number drops to 11.5 PPG at home. But San Diego State is allowing just 11.4 PPG along with a mere 270.8 total YPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 26-10-1 in the Aztecs’ last 37 games at home — and they have played 43 of their last 62 games Under the Total in the month of October. The number has dropped into the high 30s for this game — but with the loser likely eliminated from the MWC title race, expect a defensive slugfest with points hard to come by. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Wyoming Cowboys (205) and the San Diego State Aztecs (206). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-12-19 |
USC v. Notre Dame -10 |
Top |
27-30 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (200) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (199). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (4-1) enters this rivalry game coming off a 52-0 shutout win at home against Bowling Green last Saturday as a 45.5-point favorite. USC (3-2) returns to action after their bye week that came after a 28-14 loss at Washington as a 12.5-point underdog two Saturdays ago.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING IRISH MINUS THE POINTS: The Trojans are an imploding program in what appears to be a lame-duck final season for fifth-year head coach Clay Helton. Under his watch, USC has now lost seven of their last eleven games. The Trojans have also won just two of their last fifteen games as an underdog under Helton — so there is little chance that USC will be in a serious position to win this game tonight. The Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games as the underdog. And while the USC defense played well two weeks ago in their two-touchdown loss to the Huskies with the Total set in the 59 range, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The good news for this team is they get their freshman quarterback Kedon Slovis back after he cleared the concussion protocol. The bad news is that he is only the starter because sophomore J.T. Daniels suffered a season-ending knee injury — and the team needs him to play a veteran in a very challenging environment on the road in South Bend for this nationally televised night game. USC is just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games on the road — and they are just 8-23-1 ATS in their last 32 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Trojans have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games outside Pac-12 play. And in their last 7 games in the month of October, USC has failed to cover the point spread 5 times. Notre Dame has won sixteen of their last eighteen games under head coach Brian Kelly with those two losses being on the road after Georgia last month and on a neutral field in the College Football Semifinals against Clemson. They should build off the momentum of their big win last week as they are covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by at least four touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. The Irish generated 573 yards of offense in that win — and not only are they 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring at least 40 points but they have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after generating at least 475 yards of offense in their last game. They have a big edge under center with senior quarterback Ian Book who is leading an offense that is scoring 41.0 PPG (51.0 PPG at home) — and they will probably get their top rusher in Jafar Armstrong back for this game after he has been out since Game One with a groin injury. Notre Dame has covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Irish also boast a strong defense that has registered ten sacks over the last two weeks while allowing only 14.8 PPG this season.
FINAL TAKE: It will be cold in South Bend tonight with winds in the 10 to 20 MPH range. Don’t be surprised if turnovers play a big role to help the Irish — they rank third in the nation with thirteen takeaways while leading the nation with their +10 net turnover differential. USC has a net -7 turnover margin this season — and they have not won the turnover battle in a game since the opening week of the 2018 season against UNLV which is the longest streak in the nation. 25* CFB Saturday NBC-TV Game of the Year with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (200) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (199). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-12-19 |
Ball State v. Eastern Michigan -1 |
Top |
29-23 |
Loss |
-112 |
15 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Eastern Michigan Eagles (142) minus the point(s) versus the Ball State Cardinals (141). THE SITUATION: Eastern Michigan (3-2) looks to bounce-back from their 42-16 upset loss at Central Michigan last Saturday as a 4-point favorite. Ball State (2-3) looks to build off their 27-20 upset win at Northern Illinois last Saturday as a 4-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Eastern Michigan should respond with a strong effort after last week’s disappointing performance. The Eagles have rebounded to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after a loss to a Mid-American Conference opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss to a conference foe. Furthermore, Eastern Michigan has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after a straight-up loss while covering the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 28 of their last 39 games after a blowout loss by at least 20 points. This team has become a physical and nasty team under head coach Chris Creighton in his sixth season with the program while also embodying his mental toughness. Creighton has resurrected this program that had only won five combined games in his three seasons before going 19-19 since the start of the 2017 season. The Eagles could have had an even better record over that span as they were just 6-11 in games decided by one scoring possession entering the fall. Eastern Michigan lost five of their six games by 7 points or less last year. Additionally, the analytics for this team are skewed right now with four of their first five games being on the road. The Eagles will be playing just their second game at home this season where they have a nice home-field advantage when playing at the “Factory.” Eastern Michigan is led by a dynamic senior dual-threat quarterback in Mike Glass III who would have likely led this team to a better record last year if not for an injury that limited him to just eight games. Glass is completing 66.8% of his passes this season with 13 touchdown passes and just 5 interceptions while leading the Eagles to average 265 passing YPG. Glass led this team to an upset win at Illinois. Eastern Michigan has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in there 56.5 to 63 point range. Ball State may be due for a letdown after their upset win on the road against the Huskies last week as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. The Cardinals eked out that game despite being outgained by Northern Illinois by -120 net yards after managing to generate a mere 269 yards of offense. That is not a good sign for them this week as they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after being outgained by at least 125 net yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. This team stays on the road for their third straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 road games as an underdog. Ball State has scored only 7 (at NC State) and 3 points in the first half of these last two games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after failing to score more than a touchdown in the first half of their last two games. And in their last 6 games in expected close contests where they were listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread 5 times.
FINAL TAKE: Eastern Michigan should be confident in this game after crushing the Cardinals at Ball State by a 42-20 score last season. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against Ball State. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Game of the Month with the Eastern Michigan Eagles (142) minus the point(s) versus the Ball State Cardinals (141). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-11-19 |
Colorado v. Oregon UNDER 60.5 |
Top |
3-45 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Buffaloes (113) and the Oregon Ducks (114). THE SITUATION: Colorado (3-2) looks to bounce-back from their 35-30 upset loss at home to Arizona last Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite. Oregon (4-1) has won four straight games after their 17-7 win over Cal last Saturday as a 21.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is a bit of a contrarian play with the Total opening at 58 and now being bet up to the 60s in many spots. The Buffaloes have played in two straight high scoring affairs with their win last week preceded by a 34-30 win at Arizona State. Colorado’s defense has looked shaky by allowing 487 yards to the Wildcats after surrendering 453 yards to the Wildcats. The Buffaloes have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 475 yards — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after giving up at least 450 yards in two straight games. Additionally, Colorado has played 4 straight games Under the Total after playing two straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored — and they have placed 5 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 31 points in two straight games. This is just the second true road game of the season for the Buffaloes who have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on field turf. On offense, senior quarterback Steven Montez led the team to 337 passing yards for the second straight week — but they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after passing for at least 325 passing yards in their last game. Colorado has also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total playing on a Friday night. Oregon has seen the Under go 16-5-1 in their last 22 games after a straight-up win. Senior quarterback Justin Herbert gets most of the attention with this Ducks team — but he has led this team to just 38 combined points over their last two games against Cal and Stanford. Oregon scored 77 points against a Nevada defense that Hawai’i also ripped to shreds while also scoring only 35 points against an FCS team in Montana. But when also considering their 27-21 loss to Auburn to begin the season, the Ducks are scoring less than 20 PPG against Power-Five conference opponents. It may very well be that the concern that Herbert lacked proven dynamic weapons at running back and wide receiver may have turned out to be the case. But second-year head coach Mario Cristobal has assembled a talented defense that is thriving under first-year defensive coordinator Andy Avalos. The former Boise State coordinator is leading a group that is allowing just 9.8 PPG along with only 261.4 total YPG. The Ducks have talent at all three levels of the defense — and they held the Golden Bears to just 256 total yards of offense last week. Oregon has then played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 total yards in their last game — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Ducks have not allowed more than 7 points in each of their last four games after that first game against the Tigers — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 9 points in two straight games. Oregon stays at home where they have played 4 straight games against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Buffaloes will want to avoid a shootout on the road at Autzen Stadium against this Ducks team — and Cristobal seems to be mimicking the identity of Nick Saban where he used to war as an assistant. Expect a lower scoring game led by the still underrated Oregon defense. 25* CFB Friday FS1-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Buffaloes (113) and the Oregon Ducks (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-10-19 |
Syracuse v. NC State UNDER 57 |
Top |
10-16 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Syracuse Orange (107) and the North Carolina State Wolfpack (108). THE SITUATION: Syracuse (3-2) takes the field again after their 41-3 win over Holy Cross back on September 28th as a 40-point favorite. NC State (3-2) looks to bounce-back from a 31-13 loss at Florida State as a 7-point underdog on September 28th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Orange have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Syracuse has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a win by at least five touchdowns. The Orange’s victory over Holy Cross from the FCS came after a 52-33 win at home over Western Michigan — and they have then played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total after winning their last two games by at least 17 points. Syracuse has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Orange have struggled with their offensive line against bigger defensive lines from Power Five conferences. Syracuse only had two starters back from last year’s offensive line. The Orange are averaging just 3.4 Yards-Per-Carry this season while allowing 18 sacks already. The Wolfpack have two starters back from last year’s defensive line — but this unit has reloaded from year-to-year under head coach Dave Doeren as of late. Despite losing four players on their defensive line to the NFL last year, the NC State defense still produced a Havoc Rate of 10.8% which was a slight drop from their 11.3% Havoc Rate in 2017 with those four future NFLers. Now after playing their last two games at home, Syracuse goes back on the road where they are scoring only 22.0 PPG. The Under is 26-12-1 in the Orange’s last 39 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And int her last 7 games after not allowing more than 20 points, Syracuse has played 5 of these games Under the Total. NC State has played 21 of their last 30 home games Under the Total after a loss on the road to a fellow ACC opponent. The Wolfpack have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. Doeren will be sticking with sophomore quarterback Bailey Hockman who made his first career start in that game against the Seminoles. Hickman completed only 21 of 40 passes for 208 yards with a touchdown in that game taking over for redshirt sophomore Matthew McKay who started the first four games of the season. Finding the replacement for three-year starter, Ryan Finley, remains a work in progress for this team. NC State returns home where they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. The Wolfpack defense has played much better at home where they are allowing just 9.7 PPG and only 264 total YPG. Furthermore, NC State has played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total against teams from the ACC. And in their last 20 games played on a Thursday night, the Under is 18-1-1 for the Wolfpack.
FINAL TAKE: While I am not sure how effective this nascent NC State offense will be with just four starters back from last season and with Hockman making only his second career start, Doeren should have his defense ready to roll tonight. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Syracuse Orange (107) and the North Carolina State Wolfpack (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-05-19 |
Tulane v. Army UNDER 43.5 |
Top |
42-33 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tulane Green Wave (323) and the Army Black Knights (324). THE SITUATION: Tulane (3-1) returns to the field after their 38-31 victory as a 4-point favorite over Houston back on September 19th. Army (3-1) looks to build off their 52-21 win over Morgan State two Saturdays ago as a 45.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Green Wave raced out to a 28-14 halftime lead over the Cougars for that Thursday night game over two weeks ago — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. Tulane has also played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a victory over a fellow American Conference West opponent. The Green Wave rushed for 325 yards in that game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 300 yards. Tulane is 26th in the nation with their run-first offense by averaging 6.56 Yards-Per-Play. But they only scored 6 points in their lone road game this season at Auburn. But head coach Willie Fritz’s team is underrated on the defensive side of the football — they held the Tigers to only 24 points in their first road game of the year. Overall, they are holding their opponents to just 18.7 PPG along with only 340.2 total YPG. Tulane has eight starters back from last year’s team that played both Army and Navy — so this is a group experienced in dealing with the spread triple option. The Green Wave also returned all but one of their rotation players on their defensive line from last year’s group. Getting more than two weeks to prepare for this unique offense will certainly help. And Tulane has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 37 points in their last game. Now the Green Wave go back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, Tulane has placed 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against non-conference opponents. Army has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a victory by at least 20 points — and they have played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a game where at least 70 combined points were scored. The Black Knights have also played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while Army generated 483 yards of offense in that game, they have played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. This team does look to get their starting quarterback, Kelvin Hopkins, back for this game after he missed the last two games with a leg injury since the Black Knights heartbreaking 24-21 overtime loss at Michigan. Army plays outstanding defense — they are limiting their opponents to only 16.2 PPG along with just 287.7 total YPG with those numbers dropping to just 14.0 PPG when playing at home along with only 275.5 total YPG that they allow. The Black Knights thrive with their run defense as well as they are limiting their opponents to allow only 104 rushing YPG along with just 3.1 Yards-Per-Carry. Army limited Michigan to just 108 rushing yards three weeks ago — and they have had two weeks to prepare for the Green Wave run-oriented spread offense. The Black Knights have played 22 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a bye week. Moving forward, Army has played 24 of their last 33 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total as an underdog of 3 points or less.
FINAL TAKE: Tulane won last year’s meeting between these two teams by a 21-17 score in New Orleans. Expect another low scoring game. 25* CFB CBS Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Tulane Green Wave (323) and the Army Black Knights (324). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-03-19 |
Temple -11.5 v. East Carolina |
Top |
27-17 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Temple Owls (305) minus the points versus the East Carolina Pirates (306). THE SITUATION: Temple (3-1) looks to build off their 24-2 victory over Georgia Tech last Saturday as a 9.5-point favorite. East Carolina (3-2) has won three of their last four games after they upset Old Dominion on the road on Saturday by a 24-21 score as a 3-point dog.
REASONS TO TAKE TEMPLE MINUS THE POINTS: First-year head coach Mike Houston deserved credit for already matching East Carolina’s win total from last season. But two of the Pirates’ wins so far this season were against FCS opponents in Gardner Webb and William & Mary. The Monarchs are not a very good team this year either — and it is likely that their 32-point loss to Navy along with their 28-point loss to NC State is more indicative of where this team is at after winning only six games in their previous two seasons. This football program made a mistake in letting Ruffin McNeil go after six seasons back in 2016 after a disappointing 5-7 record in a year where they outgained their American Athletic Conference opponents by +26.5 net YPG while suffering three net close losses decided by one scoring possession. The subsequent Scottie Montgomery era was a failure with three straight 3-9 seasons. Houston inherited fourteen starters but the talent level of this roster needs to be upgraded to hang with the better teams in the conference. East Carolina is just 9-31-1 ATS in their last 41 games against American Athletic Conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 53 games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, this Pirates team is due for a letdown after their upset win last week as they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. They return home for this contest where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Temple should build off the momentum of their victory last week as they have over the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a double-digit victory. Their lone loss was at Buffalo this year — but they have still covered the point spread in 43 of their last 63 games on the road which includes them covering the point spread in six of their last eight road games against teams with a winning record at home. First-year head coach Rod Carey inherited fourteen starters from last year’s team that finished 8-5 with a loss in the Independence Bowl under an interim head coach to Duke. The Owls are outscoring their opponents by +13.3 PPG while also outgaining these foes by +149.5 net YPG due. Temple is allowing only 17.2 PPG while holding their opponents to just 283.7 total YPG. They have also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 28 games against conference opponents.
FINAL TAKE: The Owls should overwhelm the Pirates even as a double-digit favorite on the road. Temple has covered the point spread in their last 6 meetings with East Carolina — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played on a Thursday night. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Game of the Month with the Temple Owls (305) minus the points versus the East Carolina Pirates (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-28-19 |
Hawaii v. Nevada -1.5 |
Top |
54-3 |
Loss |
-125 |
13 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Nevada Wolf Pack (150) minus the points versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (149). THE SITUATION: Nevada (3-1) has won two straight games with their 37-21 win at UTEP last week as a 14-point favorite. Hawai’i (3-1) also comes off a victory with their 35-16 win at home against Central Arkansas as a 17.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLF PACK MINUS THE POINTS: Nevada’s season stats are skewed right now after they endured a 77-6 loss at Oregon in their second game of the season. But the Wolf Pack also have a nice upset victory over Purdue in Reno that opened up their season. Third-year head coach Jay Norvell had eleven starters return from last year’s 8-5 team that closed out their season by defeating Arkansas State by a 16-13 score. Norvell had to replace a three-year starter in Ty Gangi to operate his Air Raid offense. Redshirt freshman Carson Strong was tapped the opening day starter — and he orchestrated the comeback victory over the Boilermakers. After getting beat up in the next two games against the Ducks and Weber State, Strong did not play last week against the Golden Hurricanes but he will get the start tonight. Norvell has indicated that last week’s starter in senior Cristian Solano and former 4-star recruit at Florida State in Malik Henry may get the chance to play. The Wolf Pack are good at home where they have held their two opponents to just 328.0 total YPG. Nevada has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. The Wolf Pack have also covered their last 4 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games in expected close contests with the point spread in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, Nevada has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in Weeks Five through Nine of the season. Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a win at home. Additionally, the Rainbow Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Hawaii has eighteen starters back from last year’s team that finished 8-6 — and this returning experience helped them defeat Arizona and Oregon State in their opening two games of the season before they were crushed at Washington in their lone road game this season by a 52-20 score. The Rainbow Warriors are led by junior quarterback Cole McDonald who ran their Run-and-Shoot offense last season. But turnovers have plagued him this season as he has thrown nine interceptions already this season — and Hawai’i leads the nation with 15 turnovers this year. Turnovers will likely play a big role in this game as they face a Nevada defense that has forced 10 turnovers already this year. The Rainbow Warriors have committed at least two turnovers in all four of their games this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after turning the ball over at least two times in three straight games. And while Hawai’i has forced only one turnover in their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after not forcing more than one turnover in their last game. The Rainbow Warriors are just 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games played in Week Five to Nine of the regular season. Hawai’i has also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Hawai’i has lost eight of their last nine trips to Reno to face the Wolf Pack — and they will be in for a rude awakening regarding the weather. The forecast is for rain and temperatures dipping into the low-30s which will make operating that Run-and-Shoot offense that thrives in the balmy Maui weather difficult (while making turnovers even more likely). Nevada can lean on the ground game — and they will be facing a Rainbow Warriors that are allowing their opponents to average 6.0 Yards-Per-Carry. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Game of the Month with the Nevada Wolf Pack (150) minus the points versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (149). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-28-19 |
Buffalo v. Miami-OH +3 |
Top |
20-34 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) Redhawks (124) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (123). THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (1-3) looks to bounce-back from their embarrassing 76-5 loss at Ohio State last Saturday as a 38.5-point underdog. Buffalo (2-2) comes off a 38-22 upset win over Temple last Saturday as a 14-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami has endured a brutal non-conference schedule so far this season with losses at Iowa, Cincinnati and then the Buckeyes last week sandwiched by their Week Two win at home over Tennessee Tech. This has been par for the course for head coach Chuck Martin in his sixth year with the program. Martin has communicated that his team was hit hard with injuries after their encounter with Ohio State — but he was also able to rest most of his starters for half of that game after what was a good first quarter where they at one point had a 5-0 lead before they fell off the proverbial rails. Look for Martin to have his team ready to play this afternoon in their first conference game of the season. The Redhawks return for the first time in three weeks after losing at Cincinnati by a 35-13 score before last week’s loss in Columbus. Miami has rebounded to cover the point spread in 8 straight home games after losing their last two games on the road by double-digits. And while the Redhawks have yet to cover the point spread this season, they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after failing to cover the point spread in three straight contests. Dealing with injuries is nothing new for Martin after his team endured 39 starts lost to injury last season which was ninth-most in the FBS. Miami still finished 6-6 overall after going 6-2 in conference play. Martin has been masterful in getting his team ready to play against fellow Mid-American Conference competition as the Redhawks have won sixteen of their last twenty-two conference games. Miami has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against MAC foes. Expect his team to play tighter on defense after surrendering 601 yards to the powerful Ohio State offense. The Redhawks have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. This is just the second home game for this team — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after pulling off an upset as a double-digit underdog in their last game. The Bulls limited the Owls to just 31 rushing yards and 289 total yards overall — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last contest. Fifth-year head coach Lance Leipold led this program to its first ten-win season in school history — but this year’s group returned just eight starters with the roster decimated by graduation, early departures to the NFL and some untimely transfers. The Bulls were a talented team last year but most of that All-Conference talent is now gone which makes this a rebuilding year for Leipold. Buffalo defeated Robert Morris to open the season before losing at Penn State and then being upset as a 5.5-point favorite at Liberty before last week’s triumph. The Bulls go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. And they are dealing with some injuries as well with the most notable being their lone returning starter at linebacker in James Patterson. In this expected close game, Buffalo also has issues in special teams with their punter averaging just 32.6 yards per kick and their placekicker having already missed four kicks.
FINAL TAKE: Miami has freshmen at quarterback in Brett Gabbert (Blaine’s brother) and Jackson Williamson but so too does Buffalo with redshirt freshman Matt Myers who completed 9 of 15 passes last week for just 62 yards with an interception. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to pass for more than 75 yards in their last game. While both Redhawks’ quarterbacks were banged up last week, in head coach Martin we trust in this one. Look for him to have his team ready for their conference debut on their home field after their gauntlet of a non-conference schedule. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Game of the Month with the Miami (OH) Redhawks (124) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (123). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-27-19 |
San Jose State v. Air Force -18 |
Top |
24-41 |
Loss |
-112 |
6 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Air Force Falcons (110) minus the points versus the San Jose State Spartans (109). THE SITUATION: Air Force (2-1) looks to bounce-back from their 30-19 loss at Boise State last week as a 7.5-point underdog last Friday. San Jose State (2-1) looks to build off their 31-24 upset win in Fayetteville against Arkansas as a 20-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS MINUS THE POINTS: The Spartans surprising upset victory was validation for a football program under head coach Brent Brennan that had lost twenty-three of their last twenty-five games in his first two seasons with the program. Brennan has played 48 freshmen in those two years in completely rebuilding this program. Yet this remains a team that returned thirteen starters from last year’s group that was outgained by -148 net yards in Mountain West Conference play. Improvement should have been expected from this team — but they have still have a long way to go. A big emotional letdown is likely for this team after they pulled off their first victory over a Power Five conference team since 2006 when they knocked off Stanford. San Jose State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. Senior quarterback Josh Love enjoyed the best passing day in his career by completing 32 of 49 passes for 402 yards against the Razorbacks — but the Spartans are just 4-14-1 ATS in their last 19 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. San Jose State has also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games in the month of September. I hate this situation for this team now. This is a very challenging travel schedule for this west coast team who had to travel east last week and now has to play on a short week on the road again. And one less day to prepare for the Air Force spread triple option certainly does not help things. San Jose State was torched by Army’s similar offense last year in a 52-3 loss where they allowed 341 rushing yards on 65 carries for a 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry average. The Spartans have been vulnerable against aggressive rushing attacks this season as well — Tulsa generated 256 rushing yards against them on 54 carries and three touchdowns back on September 7th. Air Force is averaging 316 rushing YPG this season behind junior quarterback Donald Hammond III who has jumpstarted this offense. In his five starts last season, Hammond III led an offense that averages 470 YPG with the team also running at a 5.6 Yards-Per-Carry clip. Hammond III is a great fit for the spread triple option of head coach Troy Calhoun given his arm strength and quick release which compliments his speed and power as a runner. There is no shame losing at Boise State on their blue field — and they matched the Broncos 355 yards of offense while controlling the football for 34:12 minutes. The Falcons held Boise State to just 95 rushing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in their last game. Air Force ranks 22nd in the nation by allowing just 91.7 rushing YPG — and they are limiting opposing rushers to only 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry. The Falcons run defense that returned four of their top five tacklers from last season should make the Spartans one-dimensional with their passing attack tonight. Air Force also has a geographical on their home field in the high altitude of Colorado Springs, Colorado where they are 54-20 in their last seventy-four games. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams who are winning at least 50% of their games at home. This is just Air Force’s second game at home this season — and hosting this Spartans team playing with one less day of rest gives them a nice advantage.
FINAL TAKE: The Falcons were 5-7 last year with their seven losses determined by just -6.3 PPG. Five of their losses were determined by one scoring possession — so they could have finished with a much better record. Fourteen returning starters for a military academy football team is a very high number — and this team demonstrated their big potential this season with their 30-23 upset victory at Colorado earlier this month. Air Force is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when laying 10.5 to 21 points as the favorite. While I am cautious in laying this many points, I think the Falcons grinding and tricky rushing attack will overwhelm this Spartans team due for a letdown who are playing on a short week. 25* CFB CBS Sports Network Game of the Month with the Air Force Falcons (110) minus the points versus the San Jose State Spartans (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-26-19 |
Navy v. Memphis -10.5 |
Top |
23-35 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (104) minus the points versus the Navy Midshipmen (103). THE SITUATION: Memphis (3-0) looks to build off their 42-6 win at South Alabama back on September 14th as a 20.5-point favorite. Navy (2-0) comes off a 42-10 win over East Carolina two Saturdays ago back on the 14th as a 7.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Midshipmen are looking to rebound from just their second losing season since 2003. Head coach Ken Niumatalolo has eight starters back from last year’s 3-10 team that lost nine of their last ten games after a 2-1 start to the year. Navy has lost sixteen of their last twenty-one games after starting the 2017 season 5-0 which ranked them 25th in the nation which was their highest national standing in Niumatalolo’s twelve years with the program. Perhaps part of the problem is fellow American Athletic Conference opponents are getting come comfortable defending their unique spread triple-option attack? Talent may be an issue on defense after this team surrendered 33.5 PPG which was the most points they have allowed since 2007. Niumatalolo hired a new defensive coordinator in Brian Newberry who ran the defense for the previous four seasons at Kennesaw State. Newberry wants to deploy an aggressive and attacking system — but he may not have the playmakers yet to execute this scheme against the better teams in the conference. The Midshipmen opened the season with an easy one against Holy Cross who they crushed by a 45-7 score before their big victory over the Pirates. But Navy may be due to a letdown now as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning their previous two games by at least four touchdowns. Furthermore, the Midshipmen are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. This will be Navy’s first game away from home this season — and they are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games on the road. Memphis has started the season strong with an opening 15-10 victory over Ole Miss laying 3 points and then an easy 55-24 victory over Southern before their road games against the Jaguars. The Tigers generated 530 yards of offense at South Alabama while holding them to just 248 yards of offense. Memphis has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. This offense does not seem to have missed a beat with junior quarterback Brady White back as the starting quarterback from last year’s team that scored 42.9 PPG while ranking 4th in the nation by averaging 523.1 total YPG. White is completing 72.2% of his passes while averaging 10.2 Yards-Per-Attempt while throwing five touchdowns to two interceptions. But the exciting thing about this team in head coach Mike Norvell’s team in his fourth season with the program is the improved play of the defense. Memphis is allowing only 13.3 PPG along with just 226.3 total YPG this year. The Tigers were young on that side of the ball last year — they have eight starters back from that group that allowed -37.9 fewer Yards-Per-Game than in 2017. This year’s defense is allowing only 3.1 Yards-Per-Carry which is very encouraging when facing the Navy spread triple option. The extra days to prepare for this defense will also help defensive coordinator Adam Fuller for the Midshipmen attack — and Memphis has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games when playing off their bye week. Additionally, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 36 games when favored by 10.5 to 21 points including seven of these last eight situations.
FINAL TAKE: Norwell should have his team chomping at the bit to play this game after they suffered three net close losses determined by just one scoring possession last year. Memphis was 8-6 last year with three of those losses decided by a combined 5 points. One of those defeats was at Navy where they lost by a 22-21 score as a 6.5-point favorite. Look for the Tigers to get their revenge tonight. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Game of the Month with the Memphis Tigers (104) minus the points versus the Navy Midshipmen (103). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-21-19 |
Central Florida v. Pittsburgh UNDER 61 |
Top |
34-35 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Central Florida Knights (319) and the Pittsburgh Panthers (320). THE SITUATION: Central Florida (3-0) remained undefeated this season with their 45-27 clubbing at home against Stanford last Saturday as a 9.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (1-2) looks to bounce-back from a 17-10 loss at Penn State last week as a 17-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Knights have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a point spread win. UCF is using their third-string (or fourth string) quarterback this season with freshman Dillon Gabriel getting the snaps. Senior QB McKenzie Milton is out the season with a knee injury and his backup, Darriel Mack, missed all of training camp with an ankle injury. Second-year head coach Josh Heupel brought in Brandon Wimbush from Notre Dame as a transfer student to compete for the starting job but Gabriel’s ability to operate the up-tempo RPO system inspired by the Art Briles school of offense has kept him on the field. But this is still a true freshman playing in a hostile environment for this contest. The Knights have played 4 straight games on the road Under the Total. Gabriel led an offense that generated 545 yards of offense against the Cardinal — but UCF has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Knights have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. While the offense has been getting most of the headlines for this UCF team, they have been outstanding on defense. The Knights limited the Cardinal to just 349 yards of offense last week. While they have allowed just 41 points in their three games this season, most of those points have been surrendered in garbage time in the season half. UCF has played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have also played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. Pittsburgh has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Junior QB Kenny Pickett completed 35 of 51 passes for 372 yards in a losing effort last week — but the Panthers have played 5 straight games Under the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Fifth-year head coach Pat Narduzzi received plenty of criticism for going for a field goal in the 4th quarter on a 4th-and-one play on the one-yard line — an attempt that was missed — rather than going for the potential game-tying touchdown. While he deserves all the heat for that decision, it demonstrated his confidence in his defense since he assumed his offense would get the ball back again. The former Michigan State defensive coordinator is overseeing a defensive unit this year that is allowing only 19.0 PPG along with just 303.7 total YPG — and that number drops to 261.0 total YPG in their two games at home. The Panthers have played 4 straight home games Under the Total — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. But a troubling observation about this team is that they have not scored an offensive touchdown in the second half of their last six games.
FINAL TAKE: Pitt has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have also played 17 of their last 21 games Under the Total as an underdog. They will be looking to avenge a 45-13 loss at UFC last season as a 13.5-point dog. The Total of that game was in the 65.5 range — expect another lower scoring game in this one. 25* CFB Television Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Central Florida Knights (319) and the Pittsburgh Panthers (320). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-21-19 |
Western Michigan v. Syracuse -4.5 |
Top |
33-52 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Syracuse Orange (340) minus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (339). Syracuse (1-2) looks to bounce-back from their 41-6 loss at home last Saturday night to Clemson as a 28-point underdog. Western Michigan (2-1) comes off a 57-10 win over Georgia State as a 9-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE ORANGE MINUS THE POINTS: Syracuse should respond with a strong effort this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least 20 points. There is no shame to losing the reigning National Champions —but that setback came after a brutal 63-20 loss at Maryland the previous week. Expectations were high entering the season in what was considered the best roster yet for head coach Dino Babers in his fourth year with the program. Thirteen starters returned from last year’s 10-3 team that crushed West Virginia in the Camping World Bowl by a 34-18 score. Perhaps the loss to the Terrapins will help the team recover from the disappointment of not pulling the upset over the Tigers last week in a game they had circled on their calendar. The Orange need to get back to playing good football with sophomore quarterback Tommy Devito making good decisions, his wide receivers hanging on to the football, and the offensive line doing a better job of blocking. Syracuse has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after losing two straight games by at least three touchdowns. They should get their offense going after only managing 187 yards against Clemson. The Orange have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not generating more than 275 yards of offense in their last game. And while the Syracuse defense allowed Clemson to average 8.6 Yards-Per-Play for 612 total yards last week, they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.75 YPP — and they are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games after surrendering at least 475 yards in their last contest. The Orange do stay at home where they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games. The Broncos may be just what the doctor ordered with their porous defense that allowed 50.8 PPG in their six losses last season. Western Michigan allowed 51 points along with 582 yards of offense in their 41-point loss to a Michigan State team that could not move the football last week in their meager 10-7 loss at home to Arizona State. That was the only Power Five conference opponent that the Broncos have faced so far this season. They did crush the Panthers last week with the help of a +3 net turnover margin — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game. Western Michigan has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. Now the Broncos go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning losing record at home. Additionally, Western Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in expected shootouts with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as the underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Syracuse is also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams outside the ACC — and they have covered the point spread in a decisive 16 of their last 19 games against teams from the Mid-American Conference. The Orange soundly defeated the Broncos in Kalamazoo last August 31st by a 55-42 score. Look for a similar result this afternoon. 25* CFB Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Syracuse Orange (340) minus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (339). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-20-19 |
Utah v. USC OVER 52.5 |
Top |
23-30 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Utah Utes (305) and the USC Trojans (306). THE SITUATION: Utah (3-0) has won their first three games this season after their 31-0 shutout win over Idaho State last week as a 36.5-point favorite. USC (2-1) looks to bounce-back from their 30-27 upset loss at BYU in overtime last Saturday as a 4.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Utes have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Utah has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. The Utes have scored at least 30 points in all three of their games this season in what have been all easy victories by at least 18 points. The ceiling is higher for this Utah offense led by senior quarterback Tyler Huntley and senior running back Zack Moss. Those two helped the Utes score at last 40 points in four straight games during a stretch last year before they both suffered season-ending injuries. Moss has rushed for 371 yards in his three career contests against the Trojans. Huntley is completing 78% of his passes behind an offensive line that has not allowed a sack this year. Huntley has also not thrown an interception. This offense should put up plenty of points against a suspect USC defense that allowed BYU to generate 430 yards last week. The talent at the defensive line has declined under head coach Clay Helton’s tenure — and the secondary had no returning starters from last year along with eight newcomers at cornerback in the fall. Greg Johnson was the only cornerback on the roster with starting experience but he is listed as questionable as he goes through the concussion protocol. And the Trojans’ best defensive lineman, Christian Rector, is listed as questionable with an undisclosed injury after not playing last week. The USC defense struggled against dual-threat QB Jorge Reyna to open the season so Huntley is poised to have a big night. Utah has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 13 of their last 19 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. USC has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Trojans did generate 452 yards against the Cougars defense in that loss with freshman quarterback Kedon Slovis completing 24 of 34 passes for 281 yards. Slovis did throw three interceptions in that game — and USC has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a game where they committed at least three turnovers. The Trojans have also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. This team is left with Slovis being under center after sophomore Jack Sears entered the transfer portal window after losing the starting gig to J.T. Daniels who then suffered a season-ending knee injury in that opening game against Fresno State. Slovis demonstrated he can operate the new Air Raid offense under head coach Graham Harrell in his first start two weeks ago as he passed for 377 yards three touchdown passes against Stanford. Additionally, the Over is 21-9-2 in the Trojans’ last 32 home games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight contests against each other Over the Total. USC will be feisty to win this game — but they may not be able to keep up with the Utah offense. Expect a higher scoring game. 25* CFB Friday FS1-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Utah Utes (305) and the USC Trojans (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-19-19 |
Houston v. Tulane UNDER 58 |
Top |
31-38 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (313) and the Tulane Green Wave (314). THE SITUATION: Houston (1-2) looks to bounce-back from a 31-24 loss to Washington State last Friday played on a neutral field at NRG Stadium. Tulane (2-1) comes off a 58-6 blowout win at home over Missouri State last Saturday as a 31.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cougars are allowing 32.6 PPG along with 506.0 total YPG in their first three games this season — but two of those games were against two of the most potent offenses in the nation in the Cougars and Oklahoma. I have actually been a bit encouraged by the play of this unit that returned only four starters. An influx of six junior college transfers has helped new defensive coordinator Joe Cauthen begin to stabilize this unit. Houston has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The bigger concern for the Cougars has been integrating senior quarterback D’Eriq King into the first-year head coach Dana Holgorsen’s version of the Air Raid offense. Houston is averaging only 146 passing YPG this season (which includes a cupcake game against Prairie Valley A&M) which is 120th in the nation. King is completing only 54.5% of his passes which is almost a 10% decline from last season. King passed for just 128 yards last week against Washington State — and the Cougars have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 170 yards in their last game. Houston did rush for 239 yards last week — they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last contest. The Cougars are averaging 239 rushing YPG this season with an incredibly consistent output of 241, 236, and 239 rushing yards this season — so expect more of the same from this team with the added benefit of a ground game moving the clock and keeping the Green Wave offense off the field. The Under is 7-3-1 in Houston’s last 11 games in the month of September. Tulane has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Green Wave held the Tigers last week to just 182 yards of offense — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Tulane defense has played well this season — they limited Auburn to 379 total yards which include a mere 207 yards in the air so their ability to limit the Cougars passing attack is pretty good. On offense, senior quarterback Justin McMillan has passed for only 424 yards in his three games with just two touchdown passes. The Green Wave have played 6 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Tulane rushed for 298 yards in that contest last week — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 275 yards in their last contest. Furthermore, the Green Wave have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the month of September — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight games Under the Total after Houston’s 48-17 victory last season fell Under the 68 point Total. The Cougars offense is still working out some kinks this year — expect a lower scoring contest. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (313) and the Tulane Green Wave (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-14-19 |
Ohio State v. Indiana OVER 59 |
Top |
51-10 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (109) and the Indiana Hoosiers (110). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (2-0) enters this game coming off their dominant 42-0 shutout victory over Cincinnati last Saturday as a 14.5-point favorite. Indiana (2-0) is also undefeated so far this season after they crushed Eastern Illinois last week by a 52-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Buckeyes offense generated 508 yards of offense against what had been considered a stout Cincinnati defense last week. Sophomore quarterback Justin Fields has fit right into first-year teach coach Jason Day’s offense. The transfer from Georgia has passed for 561 yards in his first two games while throwing nine touchdowns and zero interceptions. He also added 42 yards on the ground last week against the Bearcats while finding the end zone two times in displaying in his dual-threat capabilities. The Over is 3-0-1 in Ohio State’s last 4 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Buckeyes also flexed their muscles on defense by holding Cincinnati to just 273 yards of offense. But this Ohio State defense has regressed as of late. They allowed 25.5 PPG last year which was the highest number they have allowed since 1999 while placing them a mediocre tied for 51st in the nation. Even worse, the 403.4 total YPG that the Buckeyes allowed last year was the most they have allowed in 50 years. Nine starters return from that unit that is now operating under new defensive coordinators in Jeff Hafley and Greg Mattison who was poached from Michigan to help with recruiting given his knowledge of the midwest as well as his Super Bowl ring coordinating the Ray Lewis Baltimore Ravens over a decade ago. Frankly, there has been a drop off in recruiting over the years at linebacker and defensive back. So while the Buckeyes held the Bearcats to just 273 yards of offense last week, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Ohio State has also played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Buckeyes have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total on the road. And in their last 5 games played on field turf, the Over is 3-1-1. Indiana has also been impressive on offense after gaining 555 yards last week against Eastern Illinois. The Hoosiers have then played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a win by at least 20 points — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Indiana will push the tempo against Ohio State with the hopes of tiring out their athletes on defense. They averaged one play per 22.8 seconds last season which was the 20th fastest tempo in the FBS last year. The third-year head coach has quarterback talent at his disposal with junior Peyton Ramsey back after making all twelve starts last season along with freshman Jack Tuttle who was a four-star recruit who transferred from Utah. But Allen and offensive coordinator Kalen DeBoer decided on freshman Michael Penix, Jr. to be their starter given his strong arm and dual-threat running capabilities. He played in three games last year before suffering a season-ending injury that allowed him to redshirt the season. All three quarterbacks played last week but it will likely be Penix under center for this game with Ramsey possibly getting in the game as a change of pace or in mop-up work. The Hoosiers only allowed 116 yards last week to that FCS opponent so let's take that with a grain of salt. Indiana has played 15 of their last 17 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game — and they have also played 25 of their last 32 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. The Hoosiers returned seven starters on defense but it was from a group that allowed their opponents to average +28 YPG above their offensive YPG season average last season which was 93rd worst in the nation. Indiana has played 5 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They also have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in Big Ten play.
FINAL TAKE: Ohio State won last year’s meeting by a 49-26 score as a 27.5-point favorite in Columbus. While Indiana may need garbage time to do it, I do expect them to approach that 26 scoring figure at home this season in what looks like a more dynamic offense. But the Buckeyes will likely reach 40 points in this one — and the Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams when playing in Bloomington. With Indiana playing at a fast tempo and Ohio State happy to take the extra possessions, expect a higher scoring game. 25* CFB Fox-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (109) and the Indiana Hoosiers (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-13-19 |
Washington State -9 v. Houston |
Top |
31-24 |
Loss |
-115 |
8 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 9:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Washington State Cougars (107) minus the points versus the Houston Cougars (108). THE SITUATION: Washington State (2-0) has won their first two games this season after their 59-17 win over Northern Colorado last Saturday as a 43-point favorite. Houston (1-1) bounced-back from their nationally televised loss at Oklahoma by defeating Prairie View A&M by a 37-17 score as a 36-point favorite. This game will be playing on a neutral field at NRG Stadium in Houston.
REASONS TO TAKE WASHINGTON STATE MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Mike Leach returned thirteen starters from last year’s team that finished 11-2. The biggest challenge Leach had in the offseason was finding his new quarterback after he found so much success with grad transfer Gardner Minshew who now finds himself the starting quarterback for the Jacksonville Jaguars. The expectation was that Leach would use another grad transfer Gage Gubrond who starred at Eastern Washington. But an impressive fall camp compelled Leach to tap fifth-year senior, Anthony Gordon, as his starter. In Leach, We Trust at this point when it comes to operating his version of the Air Raid offense. He has long been preparing for the post-Luke Falk era who was a three-year starter for this program. He brought in Gordon and Trey Tinsley (another fifth-year senior) as junior college transfers two years ago — and he believes in competition with the Gubrond transfer along with recruiting a talented younger quarterback in redshirt freshman Cammon Cooper. Gordon has validated Leach’s decision as he has thrown for 884 yards with nine touchdown passes and just one interception in his first two starts. Gordon found nine different receivers last week and looks well-equipped to run Leach’s offense. With the top four receivers back from last year along with talented rusher and pass-catching threat in running back Max Borghi along with a strong offensive line that returned four starters from last year, this offense should continue to put up big numbers — and that makes this Cougars team dangerous even when playing on the road. Washington State has covered the points read in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. These Cougars generated 594 yards last week — and not only have they covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game but they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Gordon has passed for 481 and 507 passing yards in his two starts — and Washington State has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after passing for at least 325 passing yards in two straight games. These Cougars have raced out to fast starts as well as they have scored 24 and 35 points in the first half of their first two games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 20 points in the first half in two straight games. Washington State usually fares well in these expected higher scoring games as well as they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games with the Total set at 70 or higher. Gordon and this Air Raid offense should shred this Houston defense that surrendered 686 yards to the Sooners in their first game. While Oklahoma makes many defenses look bad, these Cougars’ defenders made it easy for Jalen Hurts in his debut with his new team as he had wide-open wide receivers all night. Houston returned only four starters from last year’s defense while losing future NFL players at all three levels of the unit making this a major rebuilding job for new defensive coordinator Joe Cauthen. I put little stock in their holding Prairie Valley A&M to just 318 yards of offense last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points. Houston has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a win by at least 17 points. Furthermore, while these Cougars raced out to a 34-10 lead last week, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last contest. Houston potentially has a dynamic offense of their own with senior D’Eriq King under center — but he has struggled at times to get in synch with the new offensive system of first-year head coach Dana Holgorsen. King passed for only 139 yards last week on 15 of 26 passing against an FCS opponent while not rushing for positive yards. That is not a good sign for what is shaping up to be a shootout — and this Washington State defense has been much improved over the last few seasons after seeing improvements in points allowed in four straight games. Six starters return from that unit for second-year defensive coordinator Tracy Claeys from a group that led the FBS by generating sacks in 14% of their opponents in Passing Down situations. Washington State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Washington State usually thrives in situations like this — they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games in September while also covering the point spread in 5 of their last 6 non-conference games. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games played on field turf. 25* CFB Friday ESPN Game of the Month with the Washington State Cougars (107) minus the points versus the Houston Cougars (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-07-19 |
Tulane v. Auburn UNDER 52 |
Top |
6-24 |
Win
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100 |
3 h 19 m |
Show
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At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tulane Green Wave (371) and the Auburn Tigers (372). THE SITUATION: Tulane (1-0) enters this game looking to build off their 42-14 win over Florida International as a 3-point favorite back on August 29th. Auburn (1-0) eked out a 27-21 win over Oregon as a 4-point favorite last Saturday against Oregon.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Freshman quarterback Bo Nix was shaky in his collegiate debut — he completed only 13 of 31 passes for 177 yards. Head coach Gus Malzahn kept the playbook limited with his freshman with the team doing little to stretch the field against a Ducks defense that is certainly not elite. While I expect Nix to get more of the playbook tonight, it is telling that Malzahn did not feel comfortable in his quarterback to start airing the ball out — even when they were trailing for most of that game with Oregon. But perhaps that is because he had complete confidence in his defense that returned seven starters including an outstanding defensive line from a unit that ranked 14th in the nation last year by holding their opponents to just 19.2 PPG. The Tigers held the Ducks with their Heisman Trophy candidate in quarterback Justin Herbert to just 332 yards of offense in that victory. Moving forward, Auburn has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Now the Tigers return home from that game played in the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta where they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total. Auburn has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the month of September after last week’s game fell below the 55.5 point Total. Furthermore, the Under is 18-7-2 in the Tigers’ last 27 games against teams outside the SEC — and the Under is 20-8-1 in their last 29 games against teams with a winning record. Tulane has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with eight days of rest and preparation. The Green Wave generated 545 yards of offense against the Golden Panthers under senior quarterback Justin McMillan. Tulane has then played 5 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after generating at least 450 yards in their last game. The Green Wave gained 350 of those yards on the ground as they flexed their muscles in controlling the line of scrimmage — and this will likely be the strategy in pulling this upset. Tulane plays at a fast tempo under new offensive coordinator Will Hall — but running the football still shortens the game with the clock continually moving. The Green Wave have played 5 of their last 5 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 275 yards in their last game. Tulane has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as the underdog.
FINAL TAKE: Tulane has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams outside the American Athletic Conference — and they have also played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams from the SEC. 25* CFB ESPN2 Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tulane Green Wave (371) and the Auburn Tigers (372). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-07-19 |
West Virginia v. Missouri -13.5 |
Top |
7-38 |
Win
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100 |
9 h 47 m |
Show
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At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Missouri Tigers (320) minus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (319). THE SITUATION: Missouri (0-1) looks to bounce-back from an upset 37-31 loss at Wyoming last Saturday despite being a 15-point favorite. West Virginia (1-0) comes off a 20-13 win at home over James Madison as a 7-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Missouri raced out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter while dominating the yardage battle with the Cowboys by a 144 to 28 margin. But then the turnover bug hit the Tigers with Wyoming taking full advantage to go into halftime with a 27-17 lead. Missouri outgained the Cowboys by a dominant 537 to 389 yardage margin but their -3 net turnover margin cost them the game — including a fumble that Wyoming returned for a 33-yard touchdown. The Tigers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after an upset loss on the road laying at least a touchdown — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss as a double-digit favorite. Additionally, Missouri has rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in a decisive 33 of their last 49 home games after a loss on the road. The silver lining for this team was the strong play under center of quarterback Kelly Bryant. The former Clemson quarterback completed 31 of 48 passes for 423 yards with two touchdowns. The transfer looks to be a fine replacement for the graduated Drew Lock who was drafted by the Denver Broncos. Thirteen starters returned from an 8-5 team last year with seven joining Bryant on offense and six starters along with five of the top seven tacklers back on defense. Now this team returns home where they have covered the point spread 8 of their last 11 games — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. West Virginia escaped suffering an upset loss to a James Madison team that ranks #2 in the nation in the FCS. But it is not a good sign for this team that the Dukes dominated both sides of the line of scrimmage. That does not bode well when now traveling to face an SEC team with five offensive linemen that all weigh at least 310 pounds. The Mountaineers survived that game through special teams and turnovers. West Virginia blocked a field goal and recovered a muffed point en route to a +3 net turnover advantage. The Mountaineers only generated 13 first downs against the Dukes defense while losing the yardage battle by a 328 to 294 margin. This is a football program in transition after head coach Dana Holgorsen departed on his own volition to take the head coaching job at Houston after an 8-4 season that finished with a 34-18 loss to Syracuse in the Camping World Bowl. Perhaps Holgorsen saw the writing on the wall this year with only three starters returning on offense from a group that lost its top five players including QB Will Grier, their top three wide receivers, and left tackle Yodney Cajuste. The new head coach is Neal Brown who did a good job at Troy — but only after enduring a 4-9 record in his first year rebuilding that program. Brown brought in Oklahoma grad transfer Austin Kendall to be his starting quarterback — but he kept him on a short leash least week with him mostly dinking-and-dunking to completing 27 passes of his 42 attempts for 260 yards. West Virginia only rushed for 34 yards in that game which is not a good sign traveling on the road to Mizzou — they are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in their last game. The Mountaineers are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games after a straight-up win.
FINAL TAKE: West Virginia is just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. They face a more talented team that will be very angry after suffering a bad upset loss on the road. 25* CFB ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Missouri Tigers (320) minus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (319). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-06-19 |
Marshall +13 v. Boise State |
Top |
7-14 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 3 m |
Show
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At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Marshall Thundering Herd (303) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (304). THE SITUATION: Marshall (1-0) looks to build off their 56-17 win over VMI last Saturday as a 44-point favorite. Boise State (1-0) is riding high after pulling off a 36-31 upset win in Tallahassee against Florida State as a 6.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDERING HERD PLUS THE POINTS: The Broncos found themselves trailing by 24-6 and 31-13 scores in the second quarter before skunking the Seminoles in the second-half by a 17-0 score to pull off that 18-point comeback for the upset win. Florida State head coach Willie Taggart blamed a lack of conditioning for his team’s collapse with many players dealing with cramps in the August Florida heat. Boise State will not receive similar luck this week against this well-coached Marshall team in the tenth season under head coach Doc Holliday. The key for this Broncos team this year will be the play of their quarterback after seeing their four-year starter in Brett Rypien finally graduate and move on to the NFL in the offseason. The highly touted true freshman, Hank Bachmeier, played as great as could possibly be expected on Saturday by completing 30 of 51 passes for 407 yards. But this sets up this very young quarterback and the rest of this team to suffer a huge emotional letdown after last week’s second-half triumph. Remember, these are the same players that dug that 18-point hole. Despite the mystique of the blue field in Boise, the Broncos have not been a very good team relative to point spread expectations at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games. Boise State has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. This remains a team that lost a number of important pieces on offense last year from their 10-3 team. Besides replacing the four-year starting quarterback, the Broncos lost their workhorse running back, Alexander Mattison, who rushed for over 1400 yards last year along with their top two receivers. These veterans helped the offense convert on 52.5% of their 3rd downs which was 3rd best in the nation — that is a number that is bound to regress. Boise State is also 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The defense returns seven starters but lost four of their top five players in tackles-for-loss. But this is a unit that only picked off seven passes which is the fewest for this program since 1968. The Broncos were also third-best in the nation by recovering 74% of the fumbles they saw on the field. If that number regresses back to the expected 50% mean, this team probably does not win 10 times last year. Marshall should be very excited to prove that they belong in the conversation regarding the top non-Power Five conference teams in the FBS. They return fourteen starters from last year’s 9-4 team that concluded their season by crushing South Florida in their stadium by a 38-20 score in the Gasparilla Bowl. Quarterback Isaiah Green led an offense that generated 503 yards against the Bulls — he enters his sophomore year with confidence who will likely take a big step in his development. Green completed 18 of 28 passes (to eleven different targets) for 238 yards and four touchdown passes while adding another 46 yards on the ground in a good tune-up for this team. The Thundering Herd bring an underrated defense into this game as well with six starters back from last year’s group that was tied for 27th in the nation by limiting opponents to just 338.7 total YPG. The Marshall run defense ranked 8th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 104.3 rushing YPG — and this was no fluke after ranking 19th in the nation in run defense in 2017. The Thundering Herd held VMI to only 56 rushing yards while outrushing them by 222 net yards — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least +200 yards. Marshall has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in fifteen straight games — so they will likely force the true freshman quarterback to beat them. The Thundering Herd forced 24 turnovers last season — don’t be surprised if an overconfident Bachmeier makes some mistakes tonight. Holliday usually has his team ready to play in the early part of the season — they are 15-7-3 ATS in their last 25 games in the month of September.
FINAL TAKE: Marshall embraces the role of the underdog — they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games getting the points which include them covering the point spread in five of their last six games on the road as an underdog. Expect the Thundering Herd to keep this game closer than expected. 25* CFB Friday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Marshall Thundering Herd (303) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-02-19 |
Notre Dame v. Louisville OVER 54.5 |
Top |
35-17 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 15 m |
Show
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At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (217) and the Louisville Cardinals (218). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (0-0) returns thirteen starters from the team that lost to Clemson in the National Semifinals by a 30-3 score. Louisville (0-0) has sixteen starters back from last year’s dumpster fire that limped to a 2-10 season record.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Fighting Irish return seven starters with an offense that might be the most potent in head coach Brian Kelly’s ten years with the program. Kelly’s decision to elevate Ian Book to be his starting quarterback despite a 3-0 start to the season was inspired as the team averaged 36.6 PPG in his eight starts. The move to Book gave the Notre Dame offense a legitimate passing threat that they have not had in years to balance their strong rushing attack. Book threw at least two touchdown passes in all eight of his regular-season starts. While the Irish are dealing with injuries to junior wide receiver Michael Young and junior tight end Cole Kmet, the Irish have depth at the running back and wide receiver skill positions. The offense also has the benefit of four returning starters on offense. However, the Notre Dame defense is likely to take a step or two back with the loss of three key members of last year’s unit that have moved on to the NFL. The middle of the defense appears vulnerable with the Irish replacing two good defensive tackles along with two good linebackers — that level of the defense is now inexperienced and lacking in depth. And while Notre Dame has two great safeties in seniors Jalen Elliott and Alohi Gilman, it will be tough to replace the elite cover cornerback Julian Love who bypassed his senior year to go to the NFL. The Fighting Irish have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total when laying 14.5 to 21 points. Notre Dame has also played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total with the number set in the 49.5 to 56 point range — and this includes them playing four of their last five games on the road Over the Total with the number set in that range. Louisville cannot help but be better on defense this season after they ranked 122nd in the nation by allowing 483.6 total YPG. While ten starters return from that group, new head coach Scott Satterfield and his defensive coordinator at Appalachian State, Bryan Brown, have a major rebuilding task to clean up the hot mess that Bobby Petrino left behind after being fired late in the season. The Cardinals surrendered at least 52 points in each of their last five games — so it will likely be a long road back for this group. Louisville’s improvement should happen faster on the offensive side of the football under Satterfield who emphasized more running in the spread offensive attacks as the head coach at Appalachian State. Satterfield has tapped junior quarterback Jawon Pass to be his starter with a simplified playbook from the 2007 NFL playbook Petrino was still relying on from his year with the Atlanta Falcons. Satterfield will likely also give reps to Malik Cunningham who led the team in rushing last year and can better execute the rushing attack under center. The Cardinals have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing on field turf. Louisville has also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total as an underdog — and this includes them playing four of their last five home games Over the Total as the dog. And in their last 22 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points, the Cardinals have played 14 of these games Over the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Louisville averaged just 19.8 PPG last year (tied for 121s in the nation) while Notre Dame surrendered just 18.2 PPG (13th in the nation). Look for the Cardinals to score at least 20 points tonight with their offense improved and the Irish defense losing three players to the NFL. With the Irish a favorite approaching 20 points, Louisville scoring 20 points should put this game way Over the number given the number the Notre Dame is likely to put up in this game. 25* CFB ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (217) and the Louisville Cardinals (218). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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