At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (313) and the Kansas City Chiefs (314). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (15-3) reached the AFC Championship Game with their 17-3 win against Baltimore last Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite. Kansas City (15-2) advanced to their opportunity to defend their Super Bowl championship last Sunday with their 22-17 win against Cleveland as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes cleared the concussion protocol on Friday but there is still the issue of the turf toe in his left foot. While Mahomes has said it feels better, this is an injury that needs a few weeks to heal — and numbing drugs can only do so much. Mahomes will not be at 100% — and his mobility will be limited. As it is, Kansas City has transformed into more of a ball-control offense in the second half of the season. In Mahomes’ last five starts (which excludes Week 17) since the Chiefs’ 35-31 win against Las Vegas, they are scoring only 25.5 PPG while not scoring more than 33 points during that stretch. Head coach Andy Reid is letting the clock burn when Mahomes is on the field in what appears to me to be an attempt to keep his defense fresh. This has helped the defense put up better numbers in the second half of the season. Kansas City has held these last six opponents (excluding the Chargers in Week 17 since Mahomes did not play) to 345.7 Yards-Per-Game with five of those opponents not gaining more than 367 yards. While not elite numbers, this approach is leading to lower-scoring games. Cleveland managed only 308 total yards last week against the Chiefs’ defense. The Bills score 30.3 PPG — but Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams who score at least 29 PPG. And while the Chiefs gained 438 yards last week, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Tellingly, Kansas City has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Additionally, there is the issue of the sputtering KC offense in the Red Zone. Since Week 12, the Chiefs possess just the 26th most effective Red Zone offense in scoring touchdowns. This is not a good sign when facing this Bills’ defense that has had the best Red Zone defense since Week 12. These two teams played on October 19th with Kansas City winning by a 26-17 score. Despite the final result, Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott is likely to consider the defensive game plan a success. Defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier did not blitz at all in that game. The Bills’ begged Mahomes to hand off the football — and he did 46 times which resulted in 245 rushing yards. Yet KC scored a field goal below their season average. Given their improved Red Zone defense since that game, McDermott is likely to dare Mahomes to hand the ball off again while giving him the short passing game but not letting him burn the defense from the mismatches that ensue from using linebackers as pass rushers. Other defenses began copying this defensive approach which has also played a role in Kansas City’s declining offensive numbers in the second half of the season. This Buffalo defense will healthier in this rematch with linebacker Matt Milano playing in this game amongst others. Getting back to full strength helped the Bills’ defense rank sixth in the NFL since Week Seven using the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. Buffalo held the Ravens last week to just 340 yards. Yet Buffalo managed only 220 yards on their own while benefiting from their 100-yard interception return for a touchdown — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game. The Bills’ first 20 plays from scrimmage were pass plays for Josh Allen — and that 21st play was a broken pass play that Allen then rushed for positive yardage. Buffalo runs the ball only 30% of the time in their offensive plays in the first half. I expect this playscript to change in this game against the suspect Chiefs’ run defense that ranks as the sixth-worst in the NFL using DVOA. The Bills’ attention to run the ball a bit more will also help them burn time off the clock to limit the offensive possessions Mahomes will enjoy. The Under is 9-2-1 in Buffalo’s last 12 road games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in January.

FINAL TAKE: The Bills have played 30 of their last 42 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and Kansas City has played 4 of the last 5 home games Under the Total as a favorite. 25* AFC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (313) and the Kansas City Chiefs (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (312) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (311). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (14-3) has won seven games in a row after their 32-18 victory over the Los Angeles Rams last Saturday as a 9.5-point favorite. Tampa Bay (13-5) has won six games in a row with their 30-20 upset win at New Orleans as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Buccaneers are playing the best football of their season right now which is just how head coach Bruce Arians and quarterback Tom Brady planned. However, this is a very challenging situation for them to travel up to Lambeau Field under their recent circumstances. They overcame a huge obstacle in upsetting the Saints on the road after they had lost the previous two times against this season by a combined 72-26 score. They also benefited from a +4 net turnover margin on Sunday. They are not likely to be so fortunate against a Packers team that has a +6 net turnover margin this season and that has only turned the ball over 12 times all year. Green Bay has committed only two turnovers in their last seven games — and Aaron Rodgers has just five interceptions all season. Part of head coach Matt LaFleur’s system is to ask Rodgers to do less in the passing game. It is working. And Tampa Bay is now playing their third straight game away from home which adds to the stress and complications of their situation. The Bucs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing their last two games away from home. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 35 games after pulling off an upset win. Additionally, Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games this season after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Buccaneers are also surviving high-scoring games with at least 50 combined points scored in five straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after playing at least three straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. We had Tampa Bay last week — but did so understanding that the Bucs had a 1-5 record against teams that made the playoffs (during the regular season). Every other team playing in the divisional round had registered at least four victories against teams that made the playoffs. Tampa Bay’s six-game winning streak came against Atlanta (twice), Detroit, Minnesota, and then Washington and New Orleans in the playoffs. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games as an underdog getting up to 7 points. Green Bay will be very comfortable in this situation being led by Rodgers. They dominated the Rams by a 484 to 244 margin in yards — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Packers have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 playoff games at home. And in their last 10 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points, Green Bay has covered the point spread in 7 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers will retain a significant home-field edge — not only in not traveling this week and playing in front of a loud crowd (as were the reports last week) even if not at full capacity at Lambeau Field last week. Yet the biggest edge for Green Bay in this game is that they will be very comfortable in playing in the cold weather. The Packers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games in January — and Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in January. 25* NFC Game of the Year with the Green Bay Packers (312) minus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (307) and the New Orleans Saints (308). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (12-5) advanced from the NFC Wild Card playoffs last Saturday night with their 31-23 victory at Washington as a 10-point favorite. New Orleans (13-4) has won three straight games after their 21-9 victory against Chicago last Sunday as an 11-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneer’s offense hit rock bottom on November 8th in their most recent encounter with the Saints in a 38-3 loss at home as a 3-point underdog. Tampa Bay was simply a mess on offense in that game with Tom Brady making ill-advised deep passes on short third-down situations. The Buccaneers ran the ball a mere five times — making a mockery of the analytics grifters who write articles every couple of years calling for offenses to pass on every down (as if there is not an adequate sample size from the Big 12 conference to assess the effectiveness of such a strategy). That game was also the debut of Antonio Brown with the team with the Bucs seeming to think he was just a “plug-and-play” solution. If there was a silver lining from that humiliation, it was that it forced Brady to get on the same-page Bruce “no risk it, no biscuit” Arians on the offensive philosophy of this team. Slowly, this offense is looking more like the ones he operated in New England — albeit with more deep throws still (but he has the talent to do it with his receiving corps). I expect this game plan to rely plenty on Brady’s assessment regarding how to attack this Saints’ defense he has played twice already — and that has just the 29th ranked Red Zone defense. The Tampa Bay offense enters this game clicking on all cylinders by scoring 40.7 PPG and averaging 527.6 total YPG. Brown has found his niche as one of the weapons at Brady’s disposal. Brady has been more accurate with his deep balls — he is averaging 9.7 Yards-Per-Attempt since their bye in Week 13 which is over 2.0 YPA above what he was averaging before the extra time to self-audit the offense. Granted, Brady’s recent success has been against teams with losing records in Detroit, Atlanta, and Washington (with Minnesota and the Falcons again since the bye week). How much of Brady’s success is legitimate and how much of it was a product of playing the Lions, et al, defenses? The metrics at Football Outsiders say the improvement is legit with the Buccaneers’ weighted DVOA on offense now ranked second in the NFL. Gaining 507 yards last week against the Football Team was impressive since they have a very good defense — and that effort was encouraging regarding how Brady will handle the pass rush this week since Washington is top-ten in pressure rate. Maybe the Tampa Bay offensive problems is as simple as two grizzled veterans in Brady and Arians needing (and using) the regular season to figure out how to mesh philosophies without the benefit of a normal offseason. The team trends suggest the Bucs will score their share of points. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points — and they have played 10 of their last 11 road games Over the Total after averaging at least 400 YPG in their last three games. Additionally, Tampa Bay has played 25 of their last 34 road games Over the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. The Buccaneers have also played 16 of their last 21 road games Over the Total as an underdog including 6 straight Overs when not getting more than 3 points. New Orleans has covered the point spread in their last three games as a favorite — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after covering the point spread in three straight when laying the points. The Saints are going to score their share of points in this game — they average 30.4 PPG at home. Drew Brees is also averaging 35.3 PPG in his last three games while averaging 438.3 YPG and he is getting his weapons like Michael Thomas back for the playoff run. New Orleans has played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total when favored by up to 7 points. The Saints have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Tampa Bay has played 6 straight games Over the Total when avenging a loss at home. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Over the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing in New Orleans. 25* NFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (307) and the New Orleans Saints (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (306) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (305). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-2) rested starters with the top seed in the AFC playoffs locked last week in a 38-21 loss to the Los Angels Chargers as a 7-point underdog. Cleveland (12-5) has won their last two games as well as seven of their last nine contests after their 48-37 upset win at Pittsburgh as a 5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: I really liked the situation for the Browns in that playoff game playing with no pressure given all the COVID adversity with the Steelers seeming to dismiss that their AFC North “younger brother” offered any threat with Ben Roethlisberger owning a 13-0 record at home against Cleveland in his career. Well, I “so right” about the Browns that it ruined our bigger play on the Under. With hindsight being 20/20, upgrading the Under play above the Cleveland side play was the sound fundamental play given the evidence at hand. That opening fumble in the end zone that the Brown recovered and then Roethlisberger throwing four interceptions to help Cleveland go into halftime with a 35-10 lead changed the entire dynamic of that game (while forcing the Steelers to abandon the run for their 2-minute offense). In winning that playoff game under those circumstances — without their head coach Kevin Stefanski — against their most-hated division rival was not only the Browns winning their Super Bowl but may very well be the biggest victory in the Super Bowl era. I like Baker Mayfield and this team when they can play with a chip on their shoulder about being disrespected. I hate Baker Mayfield and this team when they start feeling themselves after experiencing positive results. It will be an emotional two weeks by kickoff — and that is difficult to sustain for even the most battle-tested veteran group. The team hopes Stefanski returns to the building on Thursday. I expect Cleveland to be flat in this game despite playing with the proverbial “house money”. Let’s look at the team trends regarding how this team responds to situations like this. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a win on the road by at least 10 points against an AFC North rival. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread win. And while Cleveland needed to defeat Pittsburgh in Week 17 to make the playoffs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning their last two against divisional opponents. And remember how unimpressive the Browns were in eking out that 24-22 win against Mason Rudolph and the Steelers’ second string? This is a team with Bluto for Animal House’s 0.0 when it comes to their net PPG differential — and they are outgained in yardage on the season. On the road, Cleveland was outscored and outgained. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games on the road — and this is an uber-difficult fourth game in their last five away from home. Winning the turnover battle in the last two weeks certainly helps — but the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after enjoying a +1 or better net turnover edge in their last two games. Here comes rested Kansas City under head coach Andy Reid who has covered the point spread in 19 of his 29 games when getting the benefit of a bye week. Worried about the Chiefs only covering the point spread once in their last eight games? KC has covered the point spread in 31 of their last 46 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Worried about the Browns running the ball against a run defense that experts at Football Outsiders (who do not incorporate Time of Possession into their metrics) rank as the 31st in the NFL in DVOA? Well, this was an issue last year as well in their Super Bowl championship run. Cleveland won’t be running the ball when down 10 points. The bigger question is how will the Browns’ pass defense that allows 262.5 passing YPG which is 25th in the league (and DVOA! ranks this unit 25th against the pass, as well) stop Patrick Mahomes? Not only has their secondary been banged up all year, but the Browns also lost their second-best pass rusher in Olivier Vernon to a season-ending injury. The Cleveland defense is not good at this point of the season. Big Ben passed for 501 yards against them on Sunday — and Rudolph passed for 309 yards while leading an offense that gained 394 yards. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing their last two opponents to average at least 450 YPG. Cleveland is also 9-26-2 ATS in their last 37 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games at home. And all this assumes the best case scenario with Cleveland getting everyone back who were in quarantine last week because of COVID. To quote Larry David, this situation is “pretty, pretty, pretty good” (with the caveat that there are never anything “sure things” — but this is as good as it gets. Please don’t bet the house). 25* National Football League Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (306) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (303) and the Buffalo Bills (304). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (12-5) has won six games in a row with their 20-13 win at Tennessee as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. Buffalo (14-3) defeated Indianapolis at home last Saturday in their Wild Card playoff game by a 27-24 score as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The weather is going to be cold with a decent chance of flurries in this game. To quote Dan Marino: “if it’s snowing’, I’m throwin’!” I do not worry about playing Overs in snowy conditions if the supporting evidence points strongly to the Over — which is the case for this situation. The Over is 11-2-1 in the Bills’ last 14 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight Overs after a win at home. Buffalo generated 395 yards of offense in that game while averaging 7.09 Yards-Per-Play. The Bills have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP. Buffalo has scored at least 26 points in nine straight games while eclipsing 30 points in six of those contests. The Bills have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after scoring at least 25 points in five straight games. But Buffalo surrendered 309 passing yards en route to the Colts’ 472 total yards in that game. The Bills have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards — and the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Buffalo has allowed 50 combined points in their last two games while giving up at least 24 points nine times this season. Last week’s game just made it Over the 50.5 point Total — and the Bills have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Baltimore has played three straight Unders after last week’s game finished below the 53.5 total — but they have played 24 of their last 41 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Unders. The Ravens have also played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning their last two games on the road. Baltimore had scored at least 27 points in five straight games before only reaching 20 points last week in what turned out to be a game where both teams wanted to control the clock. And while the Ravens’ defense has only surrendered 18.6 PPG this season, they have given up at least 28 points five times. Buffalo averages 290 passing YPG — and Baltimore has played 29 of their last 44 games Over the Total after eight games into the season against teams who average at least 260 passing YPG. The Ravens score 28.2 PPG on the road — and while they average 194 rushing YPG, the Bills have played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total against teams who average at least 170 rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Over is 3-1-1 in Baltimore’s last 5 playoff games when they were the underdog. Buffalo has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. This is a heavyweight contest — and both these teams will keep fighting to win which should push the final score Over the Total. 25* NFL Saturday Night Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (303) and the Buffalo Bills (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (302) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (301). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (13-3) returns to action off a bye week after defeating Chicago on the road by a 35-16 score on January 3rd as a 4.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (11-6) has won two in a row after defeating Seattle on the road as a 3-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Rams may be due for a letdown after pulling off that upset victory against their NFC South rival — they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit victory. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after pulling off an upset win on the road against a divisional foe. Additionally, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after winning their last two games — and while they covered the point spread in those two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in their last two games. With John Wolford dealing with the neck injury he suffered against the Seahawks, Jared Goff will be the starting quarterback in this game. Under normal circumstances, I worry about the California product playing in cold weather — he does not have a great history playing in the cold in those rare occasions in his career. Yet asking Goff to control a hardened ball from the cold with screws in his hand may be too much to ask. Highs are expected to be in the 30s for this game. Goff completed just 9 of 19 passes last week for 155 yards. The Rams’ offense relied on their ground game as they rushed for 164 yards — but Los Angeles has then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. This is an offense that is scoring only 19.0 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 333.3 total YPG in those games. This is old hat for Green Bay — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win against a divisional rival. They return home to Lambeau Field where they are 7-1 this season with an average winning margin of +12.1 net PPG. They are holding their guests to just 19.5 PPG along with 308.9 total YPG. They are also scoring 31.6 PPG while averaging 406.9 YPG in their eight home games. The Packers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Green Bay has scored at least 24 points in nine straight games with them reaching 30 points in seven of those contests. Furthermore, the Packers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the playoffs — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoffs games at home in the Green Bay cold weather. Aaron Rodgers’ team has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: The favorite has covered the point spread in 9 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams — and the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in the last 6 of these games. It is tough to see Goff at less than 100% keeping up with Rodgers at Lambeau Field. 25* NFC Divisional Playoff Game of the Year with the Green Bay Packers (302) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (151) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (152). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (11-5) has won two of their last three games after defeating the Steelers at home last Sunday by a 24-22 score as a 10.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (12-4) has lost four of their last five games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a narrow loss by 3 points or less. The Under is also a decisive 39-19-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 60 games after a point spread win. That game with the Browns finished Over the 44.5 point Total — but the Steelers have then played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Big Ben Roethlisberger should be in better health this week after getting last week off to rest with Pittsburgh already locked as the three seed in the AFC playoffs. Outside a second half against the Colts where Roethlisberger ignored his offensive coordinator to lead the offense to 17 points, the Steelers’ offense has looked stagnant in the second half of the season. Pittsburgh is struggling to run the football — they are averaging only 3.6 Yards-Per-Carry. This has contributed to the Steelers’ relying on quick passing routes — but with Roethlisberger’s struggles to execute the vertical passing game because of his health, a decline in his skills, or the lack of balance in the Pittsburgh offense — and that has made their offensive attack too predictable. The Steelers failed to score more than 19 points in five straight games before that second half against Indianapolis produced their 28 points in the final score. Pittsburgh has thrown the ball 44 and 49 times in their last two games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after passing the ball at least 40 times in two straight games. The Steelers return home where they have been very tough to score on — they are holding their visitors to 18.6 PPG along with 295.1 YPG. The Under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 home games when favored. And in their last 26 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range, Pittsburgh has played 17 of these games Under the Total. Cleveland has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. And while the Browns have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. The COVID outbreak will certainly not make things easier for the Cleveland offense. While having offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt calling plays is a fine alternative, head coach Kevin Stefanski was hired for the job for this organization in part because of his acumen at calling plays. Having Stefanski away from the team given COVID protocols is far from ideal. Losing Pro Bowl guard Joel Bitonio to COVID also hurts this Browns’ offense. Tackle Jack Conklin is also questionable with an unrelated illness. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has averaged only 165.0 passing YPG in his three starts in Pittsburgh with a low 70.6 Passer Rating while getting sacked 11 times — he needs all the help he can get. The Cleveland defense has been playing better as of late — they have held their last three opponents to just 17.0 PPG along with 338.3 YPG. The Browns' strategy will be to lean heavily on their ground game and out-physical their divisional rival. Cleveland has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total when avenging a narrow loss by a field goal or less. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (151) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (150) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (149). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (12-4) has won two games in a row with their 33-7 win at Carolina last Sunday as a 6-point favorite. Chicago (8-8) saw their three-game winning streak end last week with their 35-16 loss at Green Bay as a 4.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: New Orleans should build off their momentum off a divisional game where I thought they might be vulnerable against an underdog playing the role of the spoiler. Instead, the Saints outclassed their NFC South rival who, like the Bears, were motivated by same-season revenge. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Saints have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. New Orleans is scoring 38.0 PPG in their last three games while averaging 405.0 Yards-Per-Game over that span. They return home where they are scoring 31.6 PPG. The Saints are also fourth in the league by allowing only 310.9 total YPG. New Orleans has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Chicago backed into the playoffs despite the loss to the Packers. They have been outgained by -13.5 net YPG this season. The Bears are not likely to respond with an inspired effort after their loss to Green Bay as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. Chicago has also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after a double-digit loss at home. Mitchell Trubisky completed 33 of 42 passes for 252 yards in the losing effort — but he did throw an interception without a touchdown pass. Improved play from the offensive line has helped Trubisky to put up better numbers in this second stint as the Bears’ starting quarterback this season. But that game against the Packers was the first time this team played a playoff team since November 29th when they lost at home to Green Bay by a 41-26 score. Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season. In theory, the Bears’ defense is supposed to keep them in games — and their frontline numbers looked decent last week as they only gave up 316 yards to the Packers. But Chicago allowed Green Bay to average 7.34 Yards-Per-Play — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 7.0 YPP. The Bears stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a winning record at home. And in their last 8 games in the playoffs, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread 6 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and New Orleans has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games with the total set in that 42.5 to 49 range. 25* NFC Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the New Orleans Saints (150) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (149). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (147) and the Tennessee Titans (148). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (11-5) has won five games in a row with their 38-3 win at Cincinnati last Sunday as a 13.5-point favorite. Tennessee (11-5) has won three of their last four games after their 41-38 win at Houston as a 7-point favorite as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Titans have played straight games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Tennessee has also played 20 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a narrow win by 3 points or less in their last contest. This Titans’ offense is a juggernaut deploying the running game behind Derrick Henry that also sets up the play-action pass for Ryan Tannehill. Tennessee scores 30.7 PPG — and they are scoring 32.9 PPG at home. They are also scoring 33.7 PPG in their last three games. They generated 492 yards last week against the Titans — and they have then played 5 straight games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Tennessee has also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. But the Titans defense cannot generate a pass rush — they gave up 457 yards to the Texans last week. Tennessee has then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game — and the Over is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games after giving up 30 points in their last contest. Green Bay put up 40 points against them in their previous game — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after allowing at least 30 points in two straight contests. The Titans give up 28.3 PPG along with 414.6 total YPG when playing at home — and they have allowed 445.0 YPG in their last three contests. They return home where the Over is 15-5-1 in their last 21 home games — and the Over is 6-1-1 in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record on the road. Baltimore has played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 9 points in their last contest. After playing three straight Overs, the Ravens have played their last two games Under the Total — but they have then played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing two straight Unders. Over their last five games, they are averaging 37.2 PPG while converting 61.3% of their third-down opportunities. They stay on the road where they are scoring 29.3 PPG. Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total as a favorite laying up to 3 points — and the Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 road games in the playoffs.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have played 6 straight games Over the Total as an underdog — and in their last 5 games when playing at home as a dog, all 5 games finished Over the Total. I think both teams score above 25 points in this game which should push the final score at least into the mid-50s. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (147) and the Tennessee Titans (148). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Washington Football Team (146) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (145). THE SITUATION: Washington (7-9) has won five of their last seven games after their 20-14 win at Philadelphia last Sunday night as a 6.5-point favorite. Tampa Bay (11-5) has won four games in a row after the crushed Atlanta last week by a 44-27 score as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FOOTBALL TEAM PLUS THE POINTS: I am not a zombie blindly following these numbers — but Tom Brady has been underachieving in night games. Not only have the Buccaneers lost three of their four prime-time games but they have not covered the spread in all 4 games. Furthermore, Brady has not covered the point spread in 7 straight prime-time games going back to his New England days last season. Those numbers are not encouraging — and I do give even more stock into the fact that Tampa Bay lost five of their six games against teams that made the playoffs. Brady and head coach Bruce Arians just want to win — they don’t care about covering a point spread. The Bucs have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games when laying 7.5 to 10 points. They may due for an emotional letdown as well as they are 4-9-2 ATS in their last 15 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in their last two games as well — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in their last two games. Washington is a much better team with Alex Smith at quarterback — they have won five of the six games he has started this season. His numbers are not great — but I think he can move the team down the field if pressed to be more than a game manager not making mistakes. Smith should find success against a vulnerable Tampa Bay pass defense that allows 247 passing YPG which is 21st in the league. The Football Team has an outstanding defense that it is second in the NFL by allowing only 304.6 YPG. They have a great pass rush that fits the profile that has given Brady problems in the past in that they can rotate fresh bodies while generating pressure from a four-man front without relying on a blitz that takes away someone in pass coverage. Washington is sixth in the NFL with 47 sacks. In their last three games, the Football Team has only allowed 18.0 PPG along with just 266.0 total YPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a narrow win by 6 points or less. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: I love this situation for Washington who can play in their familiar building without any pressure. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games as a favorite. 25* NFL ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Washington Football Team (146) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (145). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (143) and the Seattle Seahawks (144). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (10-6) snapped a two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 18-7 win against Arizona as a 1-point favorite. Seattle (12-4) has won four games in a row with their 26-23 win at San Francisco as a 7-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rams have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win at home — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a win at home over an AFC North foe. This is a bit contrarian play with the number dropping into the 42 range. Los Angeles has played four straight Unders — but they have then played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after playing at least four straight Unders. Granted, the Rams are averaging only 15.7 PPG in their last three games — and head coach Sean McVay has not committed to a starting quarterback with Jared Goff getting screws in his throwing hand and John Wolford having no experience in the playoffs. But the offense is getting healthier around these quarterbacks with left tackle Andrew Whitworth and wide receiver Cooper Krupp expected back on the field for this one and rookie running back Cam Akers established their lead running back. McVay seems to like Wolford — he can make some throws that Goff is not great at executing. The Rams are scoring 25.8 PPG on the road — and their pass attack is predicated on their play-action from their rushing attack being credible which should be the case in this game. Los Angeles has played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Rams have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Over the Total as a dog. Seattle has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win over a divisional rival — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a narrow win by a field goal or less. The Seahawks have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a game where they won but did not cover the point spread as a favorite. Russell Wilson seems to be in a slump with the team scoring only 22.0 PPG in their last three games. But he did not suddenly forget how to play football — and the Seahawks were cruising into the playoffs in the second half of the season while intentionally working on improving their running game (which will help their defense). Yet Seattle remains a team that is scoring 29.6 PPG at home — and I have full faith in Wilson to continue to score points if the Rams are scoring in a competitive game. The Seahawks are dealing with injuries on defense including Jamal Adams dealing with a shoulder. Their win over the 49ers did finish Over the Total — and they have then played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing an Over in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in January — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total in the playoffs. These teams did just play to a 20-9 score two weeks ago — and their first meeting this season finished Under the Total with the Rams’ 23-16 win. I think this one goes Over — with both teams scoring at least 20 points. 25* NFC Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (143) and the Seattle Seahawks (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (141) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (142). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (11-5) has won four of their last five games after their 28-14 win against Jacksonville last Sunday as a 15.5-point favorite. Buffalo (13-3) has won six games in a row with their 56-26 upset win against Miami as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bills have been a freight-train in the second half of the season with all six of their victories being by double-digits. Quarterback Josh Allen has taken his game to the next level — fueled by a rigorous offseason program motivated by his embarrassing performance in the playoffs last year. But I expect things to become more difficult for Buffalo — especially against this Indianapolis team that can deploy the strategy that has given them the biggest problems this season. The Bills are small upfront on defense after losing some important players from last season that were then magnified when defensive tackle Star Lotulelei opted-out this season. Buffalo is allowing opposing rushers to average 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry which is 26th in the league. In their three losses this season, the Bills were torched on the ground. Tennessee ran the ball 34 times for 139 yards while also using the commitment to their ground game to set up play-action passes in their 42-16 thrashing of Buffalo. Kansas City ran the ball 46 times for 245 yards in their 26-17 victory over the Bills. And Arizona ran the ball 35 times for 257 yards in a 32-30 upset victory that ended with that Hail Mary touchdown pass to DeAndre Hopkins. Indy can deploy a similar strategy with rookie running back Jonathan Taylor peaking just in time for the playoffs. The former Wisconsin Badger ran the ball 30 times for 253 yards with two touchdowns in the Colts’ win against the Jaguars. Over his last six games, Taylor has rushed for 741 yards with a 6.2 Yards-Per-Carry average along with seven touchdowns. As it is, Buffalo looks primed for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after winning four games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning five in a row. And while the Bills were underdogs against the Dolphins because they had little at stake last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset win as a home underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset win at home by at least two touchdowns. Buffalo has also failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 42 games after a double-digit win over an AFC East foe. Additionally, while the Bills are 7-1 at home, they are being outgained by -18.3 net YPG in those games. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win over an AFC South rival — and they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after a double-digit win over a divisional rival. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least two straight games. Furthermore, Indy has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Additionally, the Colts have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo is averaging 396.4 YPG — but Indy has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against teams who average at least 350 YPG. The Bills are banged up at wide receiver Stefan Diggs probable but dealing with an oblique and Cole Beasley questionable with a knee. Allen needs both at peak effectiveness. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the Indianapolis Colts (141) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Football Team (101) and the Philadelphia Eagles (102). THE SITUATION: Washington (6-9) has lost two straight games with their 20-13 loss to Carolina as a 1-point underdog. Philadelphia (4-10-1) has lost two straight games as well as six of their last seven games after their 37-17 upset loss at Dallas as a 3-point underdog. Washington must win this game to win the NFC East and make the playoffs.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles declared nine players out yesterday — and this list includes running back Miles Sanders, wide receiver DeSean Jackson, and tight end Dallas Goedert. Philadelphia is getting very thin when it comes to injuries their skill position and offensive line units. They have played 9 straight games Under the Total when playing at home after losing two of their last three games. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has played quite well in his first three starts at quarterback — he led the Philly offense to 477 total yards last week. But the Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Expect head coach Ron Rivera and the Washington defensive staff to have a good game plan against Hurts. It is usually about three games worth of tape in the NFL before opposing defenses begin to get a good book on quarterbacks to design more effective schemes. The Philly defense also gave up 513 yards to the Cowboys last week — but they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. They return home where they hold their guests to just 23.4 PPG along with 336.3 YPG. The Eagles have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 13 of their last 16 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Football Team has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Washington has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. The Football Team has managed only 15 and 13 points in their last two games — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 17 points in two straight games. Washington did gain 386 yards last week but they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. It does look like it will be Alex Smith back under center for this game with his taking part in a limited practice on Friday after missing the last two games with a calf injury. With second-year QB Dwayne Haskins cut earlier this week, it will be Taylor Heinicke as the backup quarterback if Smith gets re-injured. Look for a conservative game plan that limits mistakes and leans heavily on the Football Team’s outstanding defense that ranks 4th in the NFL by allowing 310.5 total YPG. Washington is scoring only 17.0 PPG while averaging 310.7 YPG in their last three games. They go back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Washington has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as a favorite. They upset the Eagles by a 27-17 score as a 5.5-point favorite on September 3rd - and Philly has played 3 straight games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Football Team (101) and the Philadelphia Eagles (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (103) and the Indianapolis Colts (104). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (1-14) lost their fourteenth straight game this season with their 41-17 loss to Chicago as a 9.5-point underdog last Sunday. Indianapolis (10-5) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 28-24 upset loss at Pittsburgh as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jaguars’ soft-tanking job consists of somehow deciding Mike Glennon is a better choice to be their quarterback than Gardner Minshew. Sure, if the goal is to never score enough points to threaten to win a second game this season. Jacksonville has scored 41 combined points in their last three games while never topping 17 points in those three contests. They are averaging only 300.0 YPG in those games. To make matters worse this week, running back James Robinson and wide receiver D.J. Chark are out with injuries. The Jaguars defense is a mess — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. And while Jacksonville has played two straight Overs, they have then played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after playing an Over — and they have played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total on the road after playing two straight Overs. The Jags have not covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Additionally, Jacksonville has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in January. Indianapolis has played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The Colts’ offense has taken a massive blow with left tackle Anthony Castonzo who went on Injured Reserve this week with a knee injury. The strength of the Indianapolis offense is their line with Castonzo being the key member. Indianapolis still has a strong defense that is 8th in the NFL by allowing only 335.3 YPG. The Colts return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They also have played 20 of their last 28 home games Under the Total in the last two weeks of the season.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing in Indianapolis. With Buffalo beating Miami, it looks like the Colts will already be in the playoffs before this game kicks off — and that may come to head coach Frank Reich to bench Philip Rivers and other key starters on offense. Indy will likely run and grind their way to victory. 25* AFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (103) and the Indianapolis Colts (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (108) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Dallas Cowboys (107). THE SITUATION: New York (5-10) has lost three straight games after their 27-13 loss at Baltimore as a 10-point underdog last Sunday. Dallas (6-9) has won three straight games with their 37-17 upset win at Philadelphia as a 3-point underdog. The winner of this game puts themselves in position to make the playoffs from winning the NFC East if Washington loses on Sunday Night Football.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): New York has lost three straight games — but they have all been against good teams looking to qualify for the playoffs in Arizona, Cleveland and then the Ravens last week. And while Daniel Jones was at his best this season before his hamstring injury since he was a threat with his legs, he still has been solid in the passing game since his return. He completed 25 of 41 passes for 252 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions last week — and he has not thrown an interception in five straight games. I thought the Giants were perhaps overvalued during their four-game winning streak in the second-half of the season — but they are being too quickly dismissed now. This is a gritty team under first-year head coach Joe Judge that plays solid fundamental football. They should play their best game in a month this afternoon. As it is, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after losing three of their last four games. They fell behind at halftime by a 20-3 score to the Ravens after falling behind by a 13-3 score at halftime to Cleveland the week before — but they have then covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after trailing by double-digits at halftime in two straight games. Additionally, New Giants have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Look for the New York offense to center around Wayne Gallman who has rushed for 617 yards in place of the injured Saquon Barkley. He will be going against the worst run defense in the league that allows 161.1 rushing YPG this season. Facing the Cowboys may be just what the doctor ordered after this difficult stretch of games as the Giants have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against divisional opponents. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in January. And in their last 10 games as an underdog, New York has covered the point spread in 7 of these games. Dallas is the toast of the town — again — right now with three straight wins including the last two as upset victories over the 49ers and then the Eagles last week. Their victory over the Bengals started the winning streak — but the Cowboys have not beaten a team with a winning record over this stretch. Don’t be surprised if and when Dallas disappoints yet again after playing themselves back into the playoff picture. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in five of their last seven games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 43 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests. The Dallas offense has found a rhythm as of late with Andy Dalton under center as they have scored at least 30 points in three straight games. But the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 30 points in three straight games. They generated 513 yards again the Eagles’ defense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But the Cowboys have up 477 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now this team goes back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road in January. Furthermore, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread 16 of their last 21 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in these last six situations.

FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against divisional opponents. They did defeat the Giants at home on October 11th by a 37-34 score as a 7.5-point favorite — but New York has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge. 25* NFC East Game of the Year with the New York Giants (108) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Dallas Cowboys (107). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (481) and the New England Patriots (482). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (11-3) has won four straight games with their 48-19 win at Denver last Saturday as a 6-point favorite. New England (6-8) has lost two games in a row after their 22-12 upset loss at Miami as a 1.5-point favorite at the kickoff of that game.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Patriots have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. New England has also played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Patriots’ offense is sputtering with mediocre quarterback play combining with a lack of talent at the skill positions. They are generating just 271.3 total YPG in their last three games which is resulting in just 20.0 PPG. Head coach Bill Belichick has been coy this week about who his starting quarterback will be as he may use these final two games to let Jarett Stidham audition for the job next season now that they have been eliminated from the playoffs. Stidham is completing just 54.5% of his passes in limited action this season while lacking the mobility of Newton. New England has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. And while the Patriots have played six straight games Under the Total, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. New England is playing well on defense — they have held their last three opponents to just 15.3 PPG along with 319.7 YPG. They did give up 383 yards to the Dolphins last week but they have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now after playing their last three games on the road, the Patriots return home where they holding their guests to just 19.3 PPG. New England has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after losing two in a row away from home. The Patriots have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Patriots have also played 4 straight games Under the Total as an underdog. Buffalo has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. And while the Bills have covered the point spread in six straight games, they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. Buffalo held the Broncos to just 255 yards of offense including only 115 yards in the air. The Bills have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing no more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Buffalo has steadily improved their play on defense after seeing some significant turnover from that unit from last season. They have held their last three opponents to just 19.3 PPG along with 293.7 total YPG. Head coach Sean McDermott is making things easier on his defense by leaning more on their running game. The Bills are second in the NFL in passing but just 21st in rushing YPG. But Zack Moss rushed for 81 yards last week which was a season-high for the former Utah running back. Look for Buffalo to use this game to continue to develop and fine-tune their ground game as they prepare to make a deep playoff run — and this commitment to running the football will burn time off the clock to help our Under. The Bills have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total with the number in the 42.5 to 49.5 range — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road with the total in that 42.5 to 49.5 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo won the first meeting between these two teams by a 24-21 score on November 1st. New England has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with revenge — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* AFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (481) and the New England Patriots (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (479) and the Green Bay Packers (480). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (10-4) has won four of their last five games with their 46-25 win over Detroit last Sunday as a 9.5-point favorite. Green Bay (11-3) has won four straight games as well as six of their last seven with their 24-16 win over Carolina as a 9.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Titans have scored at least 30 points in five straight games while averaging a robust 37.4 PPG over that stretch. Yet the Tennessee defense has allowed at least 24 points in five of their last six games. The Titans lack a pass rush — even when their supposed specialist, Jadeveon Clowney was not on Injured Reserve. When Tennessee takes the lead, their opponents are able to keep scoring relying on their passing attack. The Titans are 29th in the NFL by allowing 276 passing YPG — and opposing quarterbacks are completing 66% of their passes against their defense. Tennessee is 27th in the league by allowing 390.5 total YPG — and they are giving up 414.0 YPG over their last three contests. The Over is 18-7-1 in the Titans’ last 26 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 6-0-1 in their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Tennessee has played 4 straight games Over the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. Additionally, the Over is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while the Titans ran for 195 yards led by Derrick Henry’s 147 yards, they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Henry’s rushing sets up Ryan Tannehill’s play-action passing — there is a reason that Tennessee is scoring 31.1 PPG. They go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road. Green Bay is scoring 31.0 PPG themselves. They have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. And while the Packers have played three straight Unders, they have then played 21 of their last 30 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight games Under the Total. Their 24 points scored last week was the first time in their last five games where they did not score at least 30 points. Once Green Bay gets rolling with Aaron Rodgers under center, they are happy to engage in scoring contests if necessary. The Packers have played 19 of their last 27 home games Over the Total after winning at least four in a row. Furthermore, Green Bay has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And while it might snow tonight at Lambeau Field, Rodgers has thrown 99 touchdown passes in his 43 games played inclement weather at home in Green Bay.

FINAL TAKE: Bad weather will also likely play right into the hands of Henry and the Titans’ play-action game — so I see the potential for snow as a net-plus regarding this Over play. Tennessee has played 5 straight games Over the Total as an underdog and 5 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 10 games played in December, the game finished Over the Total 8 times. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (479) and the Green Bay Packers (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.

A 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Carolina Panthers (469) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Washington Football Team (470). THE SITUATION: Carolina (4-10) has lost three straight games as well as eight of their last nine contests after their 24-16 loss at Green Bay last Saturday as a 9.5-point underdog. Washington (6-8) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last Sunday with their 20-15 loss at home to Seattle.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): The news that Alex Smith would be out for the Football Team leaving Dwayne Haskins as their starting quarterback is enough to push the Panthers from a 10*/20* range to a strong 25* play. Carolina is underrated. They have been in a position to win or tie the game in the fourth quarter in all eight of their losses — and they are a frustrating 2-8 in games decided by one scoring possession. Despite their record, the Panthers are only being outgained by -2.3 net YPG — and they are losing the yardage battle by just -1.7 net YPG in their seven road games. Despite losing three in a row, they have outgained their opponents by +21.6 net YPG after dominating the Packers last Saturday in that department by a 364 to 291 yardage margin. These are the underlying numbers of a team that would usually be 7-7. In an expected close game that will likely be decided in the fourth quarter, I will take Teddy Bridgewater over Haskins. The veteran is completing 69.8% of his passes for 3360 yards this season. Carolina has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while they trailed at halftime last week by a 21-3 score, the Panthers have then covered the point spread in 29 of their last 41 games after not scoring more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. Now this team stays on the road where they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a straight-up loss. And while the Football Team gave up 181 rushing yards to the Seahawks last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. Haskins completed 38 of 55 passes for 295 yards last week — but he also threw two interceptions. He is completing only 62.9% of his passes this season with just a 6.0 Yards-Per-Attempt average. He has five interceptions along with five touchdown passes. He also seems to have completely lost the confidence of the coaching staff and teammates. Remember, he was relegated to the third-string quarterback early in the season — he is starting this game only because of injuries to Smith and Kyle Allen. Haskins breaking COVID protocols by visiting an adult establishment last week does not inspire confidence about his leadership skills. The announcement that Smith cannot play was likely demoralizing for this team fighting for a playoff spot. The Football Team has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against a team with a losing record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Carolina will be doubly motivated — not only to play the role of spoiler to Washington’s playoff hopes but in facing their former coach in Ron Rivera. While Rivera was well-liked, facing their old coach should ensure a spring in the steps of this Panthers team. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Carolina Panthers (469) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Washington Football Team (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (466) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (465). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (11-3) is reeling with three straight losses after their embarrassing 27-17 upset loss at Cincinnati on Monday as a 14.5-point favorite. Indianapolis (10-4) has won three straight games as well as five of their last six contests after their 27-20 win against Houston as a 7.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINTS: We had the Bengals as out AFC North Game of the Year — so I am well aware of the problems of this Steelers’ team right now. They are decimated by injuries at linebacker and their offensive line is beat-up. And Big Ben Roethlisberger looks old and cannot deliver the ball down the field. Got it. But this a good buy-low spot for Pittsburgh. Part of the problem with the Bengals’ game was that the Steelers were taking them lightly while it was the de-facto Super Bowl for Cincinnati. Pittsburgh did play better in the second half of that game but could not rally from the 17-0 hole they dug themselves at halftime. The Steelers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games at home after an upset loss to an AFC North rival — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after a double-digit loss to a divisional foe. Part of the problem for Pittsburgh has been their lack of running game — their 86 rushing yards last week were the most they generated in their last four contests. But the Steelers have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not rushing for at least 100 yards in three straight games. Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning at least three games in a row. Pittsburgh does expect a healthier James Connor for this game which should help them get their ground game going again. Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning at least three games in a row. And while the Colts have covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in at least two straight games. Indianapolis defeated the Texans last week despite being outgained by -75 net yards after surrendering 42 yards. The Colts gave up 362 passing yards in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. And while Indy has not allowed more than 90 rushing yards in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not allowing 100 or more rushing yards in at least three straight games. The Colts’ defense has taken a step back as of late as they have allowed their last three opponents to average 415.7 total YPG. Indy is also 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against AFC opponents. Look for a desperate and angry Steelers team to play their best game in a month. 20* NFL Indianapolis-Pittsburgh CBS-TV Special with the Pittsburgh Steelers (466) minus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (465). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (459) and the Arizona Cardinals (460). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-9) has lost three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests after their 41-33 upset loss at Dallas as a 4-point favorite. Arizona (8-6) has won their last two games with their 33-26 win against Philadelphia last Sunday as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after losing three games in a row. The Under is also 8-2-1 in their last 11 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Turnovers are killing head coach Mike Shanahan’s team. The Niners have lost the turnover battle in three straight games while being burdened with a -2 or wore net turnover margin in two straight games. San Francisco has then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing at least three games with a -1 or worse net turnover margin — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing two straight games with a -2 or worse net turnover margin. Third-string quarterback C.J. Beathard will be under center given injuries to Jimmy Garappolo and Nick Mullens. This is his first start since 2018. Look for Shanahan to commit to running the football to take some pressure off the former Iowa quarterback. San Francisco needs to limit turnovers since their defense is playing well. They are allowing only 311.0 net YPG in their last three games — and they hold their home hosts to just 286.3 total YPG. The Under is 4-1-1 in the Niners’ last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The 49ers have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as a road underdog. Arizona has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win at home. And while Kyler Murray completed 27 of 36 passes for 406 yards last week against the Eagles, the Cardinals have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Arizona tallied 526 total yards against Philly but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Cards’ defense gave up 305 yards to Jalen Hurts in the win — but they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Additionally, Arizona has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams from the NFC — and the Under is 3-1-1 in the 49ers’ last 5 games against fellow NFC West foes. Arizona won the first meeting between these two teams by a 26-20 score. Expect a similar result. 25* NFC West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (459) and the Arizona Cardinals (460). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (451) and the New Orleans Saints (452). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-8) has lost two games in a row with their 33-27 loss to Chicago as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. New Orleans (10-4) has lost two games in a row after their 32-29 loss to Kansas City as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Vikings have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after an upset loss. Minnesota did gain 397 yards in the loss — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Kirk Cousins has been a turnover machine being responsible for 18 giveaways including his 13 interceptions which is tied for the second-most in the NFL. But he is leading an offense that has scored at least 27 points in four of their last five games. Yet the depleted Vikings’ defense has allowed at least 24 points in four of their last five contests. Minnesota is running out of linebackers. Both Eric Kendricks and Troy Dye are out for this game while Todd Davis is doubtful. Anthony Barr is already out the season — as is defensive end Danielle Hunter. The Vikings were already allowing 27.7 PPG to the dismay of head coach Mike Zimmer. Minnesota has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against NFC opponents. New Orleans has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. Additionally, the Saints have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Drew Brees was rusty in his first game back on the field after missing four straight games with his rib injuries — but he played better as that game went on by leading his team to 20 points in the second half. New Orleans was outgained by -126 net yards but they have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after being outgained by at least -100 yards in their last game. The Saints’ defense has surrendered at least 179 yards in two straight games — and they have played 4 of their last  5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 175 rushing yards in two straight games. They stay at home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Over the Total. With Brees starting under center, the Saints have scored at least 24 points in all ten of his games — and they have scored at least 27 points in eight of those contests. And outside of a five-game stretch from November 8th through December 6th where the New Orleans’ defense allowed just 44 combined points, they allowed at least 23 points in each of their remaining nine games.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Expect New Orleans to at least reach their 28.4 PPG scoring average against this injury-ravaged Vikings’ defense with Cousins scoring enough points to keep it interesting. 25* NFL Fox-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (451) and the New Orleans Saints (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (370) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (369). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (2-10-1) has lost five games in a row after their 30-7 loss at home to Dallas last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. Pittsburgh (11-2) has lost two games in a row with their 26-13 loss at Buffalo last Sunday night as a 2-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a good opportunity to offer the reminder that we don’t bet on teams — we bet on point spreads. The Steelers are in no position to be a favorite of around two touchdowns to anybody right now. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 31 of their last 44 games as a double-digit favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games when favored by 10.5 to 14 points. Ben Roethlisberger is banged up right now. He denies he has a knee issue but he lacks any ability to move in the pocket and he is having difficulty planting his foot for deeper balls. Pittsburgh is limited to mostly quick passes which Roethlisberger is still good at. However, when opposing defenses can key-in on these quick strikes and lay off worrying too much about deep balls, then this approach can get stuck in the mud. The Steelers have not scored more than 19 points in three straight games. Pittsburgh is averaging only 294.7 total YPG during that stretch. To compound matters, the Steelers are getting very little from their running game. They have run for only 136 combined yards in their last three games. Pittsburgh has not rushed for more than 48 yards in five of their last seven games. James Conner has been injured but he ran the ball only ten times for 17 yards in his return to action last week. He is questionable tonight with the quad injury that has slowed him down. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. And while these problems on offense has contributed to them playing four straight Unders, Pittsburgh has then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing four straight Unders. Furthermore, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42 point range. And in their last 6 games in December, Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread all 6 times. Cincinnati should play well after their embarrassing effort at home. Not only have the Bengals covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a double-digit loss at home. Cincinnati has been pretty sneaky good at home this season before laying an egg against the Cowboys in that Andy Dalton revenge game. The Bengals have a 2-point loss to New England and a 3-point loss to Cleveland at home — and their two wins against Tennessee and Tennessee were at home. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. They are down to their third-string quarterback tonight with Ryan Finley with Joe Burrow out the season and then Brandon Allen being declared out tonight with a knee injury. Finley has plenty of NFL experience — he has thrown 106 passes in the regular season for 549 yards with two touchdown passes. Finley cannot be much worse than Allen as the Bengals have not scored more than 17 points in five straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after not scoring more than 17 points in five straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati will be looking to avenge a 36-10 loss at Pittsburgh on November 15th — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with same-season revenge. 25* AFC North Game of the Year with the Cincinnati Bengals (370) plus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (369). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (362) plus the point versus the Cleveland Browns (361). THE SITUATION: New York (5-8) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last week with their 26-7 loss to Arizona as a 3-point underdog. Cleveland (9-4) comes off their dramatic 47-42 loss to Baltimore on Monday Night Football as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: New York has plenty to play for in this game with a victory giving them a tie for first place in the NFC East after Washington lost to Seattle this afternoon. The Giants have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. New York has also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss. And while the Giants managed only 159 total yards last week, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Daniel Jones was back under center last week but he might have been rushed back on the field with his hamstring injury. Jones has been a threat with his legs but that injury left him immobile in the pocket — he was sacked six times. The veteran Colt McCoy will be starter again tonight after he was the starter two weeks ago when the Giants upset Seattle on the road. The New York defense has been the catalyst to their improved play. They have held their last three opponents to jut 18.3 PPG along with 290.7 total YPG. The Giants have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games as an underdog. Cleveland is vulnerable to being satisfied with their competitive loss to the Ravens on Monday — this is a group that too often makes their own announcement as to just how good they are. Yet the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss — and they are just 16-41-1 ATS in their last 58 games after a straight-up loss. Cleveland has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football. Despite their 9-4 record, the Browns are being outscored by -1.5 PPG. They go on the road where they are being outgained by -24.2 net YPG while being outscored by -6.9 PPG despite their 4-2 record. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a losing record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as a favorite. Cleveland may win this game — but this should be a close game. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the New York Giants (362) plus the point versus the Cleveland Browns (361). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (358) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (357). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (6-7) looks to bounce back from their 26-14 loss at Tampa Bay last week as a 7-point underdog. Chicago (6-7) snapped a six-game losing streak last Sunday with their 36-7 upset victory at home against Houston as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota has been very reliable when placed in the bounce-back mode as they have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 51 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss. The Vikings have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Minnesota did get 162 rushing yards last week with Delvin Cook leading the way which is a good sign for this game as they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. They return home for the last time for this game where they are scoring a healthy 29.1 PPG while averaging 419.3 total YPG. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 37 of their last 56 home games with the total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range including covering the spread in five of these last six situations. Chicago enjoyed a transcendent game from Mitchell Trubisky who completed 24 of 33 passes for 267 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. But look for the Bears to take a step back as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Chicago has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road after a win by at least three touchdowns. And while the Bears dominated the Texans by outgaining them by +153 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +150 net yards. That game was the first time that Chicago had met point spread expectations in their last five games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after only covering the point spread once in their last four contests. They go back on the road where they are being outscored by -3.7 net PPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 33 road games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. Despite the strong defensive effort last week, they have still allowed their last three opponents to score 27.3 PPG while averaging 372.0 total YPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Additionally, Chicago has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: The Bears have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against NFC North foes — and the Vikings have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against divisional foes. Chicago will be playing with revenge on their minds after losing at home to Minnesota by a 19-13 score as a 3-point underdog — but the home team has still covered the point spread in 7 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams. 25* NFC North Game of the Year with the Minnesota Vikings (358) minus the points versus the Chicago Bears (357). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (346) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (345). THE SITUATION: Denver (5-8) snapped a two-game losing streak last Sunday with their 32-27 upset victory at Carolina as a 4-point underdog. Buffalo (10-3) comes off a high-profile victory last Sunday night against Pittsburgh by a 26-13 score as a 2-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bills doubled-up the Steelers score last week despite gaining only 334 yards of offense. But this Buffalo team may be due for an emotional letdown now facing a 5-8 Broncos team on the road. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 48 games after winning at least four of their last five games — including failing to cover the point spread in four of these last six circumstances. Buffalo has won ten of their thirteen games despite only outgaining their opponents by +11.6 net YPG. And while they are 4-2 in their six games on the road, they have a flat net PPG margin of 0.0 in those contests. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. And while Buffalo is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 65.9% of their passes, the Broncos have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams who allow their opponents to complete at least 64% of his passes. Drew Lock comes off his best game in the NFL last week as he completed 21 of his 27 passes of 280 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. He led an offense that generated 365 yards — and Denver has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while the Broncos have lost four of their last six games, the Broncos have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after losing four or five of their last six games. Denver has lost the turnover battle in five straight games — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after enduring a -1 or worse net turnover margin in at least four straight contests. The Broncos have suffered some key injuries on defense this season — but they have still held their guests to just 336.0 YPG when playing at home. This Denver is dealing with some significant injuries (and one suspension) — and they are particularly thin at cornerback for this game. That is certainly not ideal — but head coach Vic Fangio is a defensive coach who is as good as it gets in finding solutions. Remember, we are not betting teams, we are betting point spreads that take into account injuries before the market gets involved. The good news is that Denver does expect to have their vastly improved left tackle Grant Bolles as well as tight end Noah Fant available for this game (and I am not too worried about them not having their top place kicker, Brandon McManus, either — they have been working with a backup kicker after their quarterback debacle that left them without options a few weeks ago).

FINAL TAKE: Denver has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against AFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in December. Look for the Broncos to keep this game close as they embrace the role of the spoiler without any pressure in this game. 25* NFL Network Game of the Year with the Denver Broncos (346) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (345). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (301) and the Las Vegas Raiders (302). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (4-9) snapped a two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 20-17 win over Atlanta as a 3-point favorite. Las Vegas (7-6) has lost three of their last four games with their 44-27 upset loss at home to Indianapolis as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is a decisive 40-19-1 in the Chargers’ last 60 games after a straight-up victory — and they have also played 6 straight games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. The LA defense is ninth in the NFL by allowing 337.1 total YPG — and they have held their last three opponents to just 314.0 YPG. They held the Falcons to just 319 yards last week. The Chargers’ offense may be limited this week with running back Austin Ekeler and wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams all questionable with injuries. The reports this afternoon are that Ekeler will give it a go with his quad injury but that Allen and Williams are game-time decisions with their hamstring and back issues. Los Angles will also be without right tackle Bryan Bulaga who is ruled out with a concussion. These are not encouraging signs for an offense that is scoring only 12.3 PPG while averaging just 323.3 total YPG in their last three contests. The Chargers have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. They also have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing on a short week on a Thursday. And in their last 26 games in December, the Under is 19-6-1. Las Vegas has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The Under is also 9-3-1 in the Raiders’ last 13 games after a double-digit loss at home. Head coach Jon Gruden has a mess on his hands-on defense. Not only did he fire his defensive coordinator, Paul Guenther, this week after they allowed over 200 rushing yards for the second straight week, but injuries have ruled our four defensive starters tonight in defensive backs Johnathan Abram and Damon Arnette along with linebacker Nicholas Morrow and defensive end Clelin Ferrell. Las Vegas has passed for 368 and 345 yards in their last two games — and they have then played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total. While there is little that Gruden and newly appointed defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli can do to fix the defensive issues, changing the game plan can ease the burden on the defense a bit. Look for the Raiders to run the ball to burn time off the clock to keep his defense off the field. Defensive coaches tend to think their players hit a wall after taking part in around 50 plays. Las Vegas has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 175 rushing yards in two straight games. And while the Raiders have allowed their last two opponents to average 7.72 and 6.60 Yards-Per-Play, they have then played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing their last two opponents to average at least 6.5 YPP. Las Vegas stays at home where they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total when favored. Furthermore, the Raiders have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. The offense is scoring only 21.3 PPG over their last three games — and the Under is 12-4-1 in their last 17 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers will be playing with revenge on their mind from a 31-26 loss at home to the Raiders on November 8th — and they have played 36 of their last 54 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 28 points. These two teams have also played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (301) and the Las Vegas Raiders (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (179) and the Cleveland Browns (180). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (7-5) snapped their three-game losing streak last Sunday with their 34-17 win over Dallas as an 8.5-point favorite. Cleveland (9-3) has won four games in a row with their 41-35 upset win at Tennessee as a 4-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. And they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Baltimore did give up 388 yards of offense to the Cowboys — but they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Ravens’ recent losing streak took place while defensive tackles Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams were out with injuries — but they both returned last week for the Cowboys game. Campbell is listed as questionable with his calf injury but hopefully, he will play. Baltimore is allowing only 19.2 PPG this season which is 4th best in the league. The Ravens got the ground game cracking last week with 294 yards on a 7.9 Yards-Per-Carry average which they will certainly rev-up again tonight. That will burn time off the clock — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Baltimore’s productivity on offense has dipped a bit after the season-ending injury to All-Pro left tackle, Ronnie Stanley. They are averaging 308.7 YPG with a 24.0 PPG scoring average over their last three games as compared to their 26.3 PPG and 337.9 YPG averages for the season. They go back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Cleveland has played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. The Browns return home where they are holding their opponents to just 18.8 PPG along with 306.2 total YPG. Cleveland has played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 19 of their last 26 home games Under the Total as an underdog. And while the Browns have only covered the point spread twice in their last seven games, they have then played 21 of their last 30 home games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Cleveland has also played 28 of their last 42 home games Under the Total in the final four weeks of the season. The Browns lead the NFL in rushing with a 158 rushing YPG average — they will be looking to control the time of possession as well. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland will be looking to avenge a 38-6 loss to the Ravens in the opening week of the season on September 13th. The Browns have played 25 of their last 36 home games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. These two teams have also played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total. 25* AFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (179) and the Cleveland Browns (180). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (177) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Buffalo Bills (178). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (11-1) suffered their first loss of the season on Monday in their 23-17 upset loss at home to Washington as a 5.5-point favorite. Buffalo (9-3) has won two straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 34-24 upset win at San Francisco as a 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): The loss on Monday may have been a bit of a relief to head coach Mike Tomlin who has been complaining about the play of his team despite their unbeaten record before that setback. Tomlin likely had an attentive team this week in practice. Pittsburgh needs to get back to running the football more after putting too much pressure on Ben Roethlisberger to carry the offense with his arm. Big Ben has attempted at least 45 passes in five straight games. The talented wide receiving corps has been feeling the pressure with their league-leading 34 dropped passes this season. Fortunately, Tomlin expects his All-Pro center, Maurkice Pouncey, and running back James Conner back for this game just in time. This team should back to basics — run the ball, don’t ask too much of your quarterback, and lean your our outstanding defense. The Steel Curtain leads the NFL by allowing only 17.6 PPG this season — and they are third in the league by giving up only 300.5 total YPG. They have suffered injuries at linebacker with Bud Dupree joining Devin Bush in incurring a season-ending injury — but they still only allowed 13.3 PPG along with 247.7 YPG in their last three games. As it is, the Steelers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Now Pittsburgh goes back on the road where they are 5-0 with an average winning margin of +9.2 PPG. The Steelers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Furthermore, Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games as an underdog — and they are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games as an underdog. Buffalo may be due for a letdown after their high-profile win in prime-time on Monday. The Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 47 games after winning four of their last five games. Despite their 9-3 record, Buffalo is only outgaining their opponents by +3.4 YPG. The Bills’ defense has taken a step back this season as they are allowing 375.4 total YPG which is 21st in the league. This unit lost some key pieces from the group that was third in total defense last season — their heart-and-soil leader, Lorenzo Alexander, retired in the offseason and defensive linemen Jordan Phillips and Shaq Lawson along with cornerback Kevin Johnson were  all poached in free agency. Defensive tackle Star Lotuleilei then opted out because of COVID. These losses have left this Bills’ defense small — they are allowing their opponents to average 126.0 rushing YPG which is 9th worst in the league. The Niners’ offense led by Nick Mullens gained 402 yards against them on Monday — and they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams from the AFC — and Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against AFC foes. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year with the Pittsburgh Steelers (177) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Buffalo Bills (178). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (177) and the Buffalo Bills (178). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (11-1) suffered their first loss of the season on Monday in their 23-17 upset loss at home to Washington as a 5.5-point favorite. Buffalo (9-3) has won two straight games as well as five of their last six contests with their 34-24 upset win at San Francisco as a 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss. The setback on Monday may have been a bit of a relief to head coach Mike Tomlin who has been complaining about the play of his team despite their unbeaten record before that setback. Tomlin likely had an attentive team this week in practice. Pittsburgh needs to get back to running the football more after putting too much pressure on Ben Roethlisberger to carry the offense with his arm. Big Ben has attempted at least 45 passes in five straight games. The talented wide receiving corps has been feeling the pressure with their league-leading 34 dropped passes this season. Fortunately, Tomlin expects his All-Pro center, Maurkice Pouncey, and running back James Conner back for this game just in time. This team should back to basics — run the ball, don’t ask too much of your quarterback, and lean your our outstanding defense. The Steel Curtain leads the NFL by allowing only 17.6 PPG this season — and they are third in the league by giving up only 300.5 total YPG. They have suffered injuries at linebacker with Bud Dupree joining Devin Bush in incurring a season-ending injury — but they still only allowed 13.3 PPG along with 247.7 YPG in their last three games. After playing their last two games at home, the Steelers go back on the road where the Under is 38-12-1 in their last 51 games. Pittsburgh has also played 27 of their last 38 games Under the Total on the road with the total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range — and this includes them playing their last five games Under the Total in those circumstances. The Under is also 4-1-1 in the Steelers’ last 6 games on the road as an underdog. Pittsburgh has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing their last two games at home. Buffalo surrendered 402 yards last week to the 49ers — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bills have covered the point spread in four straight games — and not only have then played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning at least two of their last three games but they have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in their last two games. Additionally, Buffalo has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total in December — and the Bills have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in December. 10* NFL Sunday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (177) and the Buffalo Bills (178). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (151) and the Detroit Lions (152). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (9-3) has won four of their last five games after their 30-16 win against Philadelphia as an 8-point favorite last Sunday. Detroit (5-7) comes off a 34-30 upset victory at Chicago as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lions have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a game where both teams scored at least 30 points. Detroit played with more energy and enthusiasm in their first game after being liberated from previous head coach Matt Patricia. Interim head coach Darrell Bevell has improved the atmosphere in the Lions’ locker room so expect a spirited effort from this team in playing the role of the spoiler at this point of the season. Detroit has lost four of their last six games — and they have then played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after losing four or five of their last six games. And while the Lions surrendered 389 yards to the Bears, they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Detroit has allowed 71 combined points in their last two games with both contests going Over the Total — but the Lions have then played 5 of their last 7 gamed Under the Total after allowing at least 25 pints in two straight games and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders. Additionally, Detroit has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. And while the Packers are allowing 24.9 Points-Per-Game this season, the Lions have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams who allow at least 24 PPG. Detroit has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total in December — and Green Bay has played 5 straight games Under the Total in December. The Packers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. Green Bay gained 437 yards last week against the Eagles — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Packers held Philly to just a field goal in the first half last week — and they have then played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 3 points in the first half in their last contest. And while Green Bay has scored at least 30 points in three straight games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in two straight contests. Additionally, the Packers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. And while the Lions allow 29.8 PPG, Green Bay has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams who allow at least 24 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers won the first meeting between these two teams on September 20th by a 42-21 score — and Detroit has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road by at least three touchdowns. 25* NFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (151) and the Detroit Lions (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (102) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (101). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-4) has won three of their last four games with their 38-28 win at Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. New England (6-6) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 45-0 victory in Los Angeles against the Chargers.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles had their offensive clicking on all cylinders against the Cardinals. They held the ball for 38:53 minutes while cranking out 463 yards. Quarterback Jared Goff completed 37 of 47 passes for 351 yards. The Rams should build off their momentum for this game as they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they are 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Additionally, while LA generated 30 first downs against Arizona, they have then covered the point spread in 6 straight games after controlling the clock for at least 34 minutes while gaining at least 34 first downs in their last game. The Rams shined on defense as well as they held the Cardinals’ offensive attack to just 232 yards. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least 150 yards. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 7 points. New England outclassed the Chargers last week despite only gaining 291 total yards. The Patriots scored two special teams touchdowns from a 70-yard punt return for a touchdown along with a 44-yard blocked field goal returned for a TD. But Bill Belichick’s team has not been very good at maintaining consistency as they are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread victory. New England is also 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Patriots have simplified their game-plan with Cam Newton under center to be a run-first team that does not try to rely on his arm. Newton attempted only 19 passes on Sunday for a mere 69 yards. New England is third in the NFL by averaging 150.9 rushing YPG — but they now face the stout Rams’ defense that is third in the league by holding their opponents to just 93.1 rushing YPG. If the Patriots do not find success running the football, they lack a credible Plan B. Even if Newton was a better gunslinger at this point of his career, he lacks the weapons at wide receiver to be productive — especially against this Rams secondary which might be the best in the league. Despite their 6-6 record, Los Angeles is getting outgained in yardage this season.

FINAL TAKE: New England has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the final four weeks of the season — and the Rams are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in December. Head coach Sean McVay has been thinking about this opportunity to avenge his team’s loss in Super Bowl 53 for a long time. His team has a decided talent edge this time around. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Rams (102) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (483) and the Baltimore Ravens (484). THE SITUATION: Dallas (3-8) has lost five of their last six games after their 41-26 upset loss to Washington on Thanksgiving as a 2.5-point favorite. Baltimore (6-5) has lost three straight games as well as four of their last five contests after their 19-14 loss at Pittsburgh last Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens’ loss to the Steelers came on the heels of them losing by a 30-24 score to Tennessee the previous week — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after losing two in a row by 6 points or less. Baltimore has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Ravens do expect to get Calais Campbell back on their defensive line after he has missed time with a calf injury (and he was on the COVID list last week) — he took part in limited practice on Saturday. Baltimore may also get back defensive tackle Brandon Williams who is questionable but also took part in limited practice on Saturday. Getting one or both of those run stoppers will make a big difference for the Ravens defense that has taken a step back during their losing streak. Baltimore still ranks 3rd in the league by allowing only 19.5 PPG — and they rank 8th in the NFL by holding teams to 331.8 total YPG. The Ravens really miss left tackle Ronnie Stanley who is out the season with an ankle injury. His absence explains much of the reason why Baltimore is averaging 18.3 PPG in their last three games with just 294.0 total YPG over that span. Their offense does get Lamar Jackson back for this game — but remember that Cam Newton struggled both physically and mentally (COVID has been shown to negatively impact brain functioning with many sufferers complaining of being in a fog for an extended period of time even after recovery). Don’t expect Jackson to be back at 100% tonight. The Ravens will likely give a heavy dose of rushing attempts to J.K. Dobbins along with Mark Ingram who both were taken off the COVID list — and this commitment will likely decrease the number of possessions for both teams given the running clock. Baltimore has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. The Ravens return home where they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total as a favorite. Dallas has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns. The Cowboys have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Dallas surrendered 41 points to the Football Team despite only giving up 338 yards in that game. Washington scored only of their touchdowns from a 15-yard interception return. The larger issue for the Cowboys is their offense that is scoring only 14.7 PPG in their last seven games. Dallas has only topped 19 points once in their last six games. To compound matters on that side of the ball, they will be without both Zach Martin and Cam Erving to injury after both offensive linemen played on Thanksgiving. On the road, the Cowboys are scoring just 18.2 PPG along with averaging 337.0 total YPG. Dallas has played 17 of their last 25 road games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams are likely to focus on their running games tonight — even with the wide receiver talent that the Cowboys have, their coaches do not want Andy Dalton throwing more than 40 times in this game. Baltimore has played 9 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with the total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. 25* NFL Fox-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (483) and the Baltimore Ravens (484). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (485) and the San Francisco 49ers (486). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (8-3) has won four of their last five games after their 27-17 win over the Los Angeles Chargers last week as a 4.5-point favorite. San Francisco (5-6) snapped their three-game losing streak last Sunday with their 23-20 upset win in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 5-point underdog. With COVID regulations precluding football games to be played in Santa Clara County, the 49ers have moved to Glendale, Arizona for their temporary home with this contest being played in the Cardinals’ State Farm Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills surrendered 367 yards to the Chargers in their victory last week — but they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. That game still finished well below the 51.5 point total — and Buffalo has played 11 of their last 13 games on the road Under the Total after playing their last game below the number. The Bills defeated the Chargers despite a -2 net turnover margin — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where they suffered a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Buffalo defense should play better with the return of linebacker Matt Milano from injury. They go back on the road where they have played 36 of their last 53 road games as an underdog. The Bills have also played 18 of their last 24 games Under the Total as a dog. Additionally, Buffalo has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in December — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total for Monday Night Football. San Francisco has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win over an NFC West rival — and they have played 3 straight games Under the Total after an upset victory over a divisional opponent. Despite a host of injuries all season, the Niners’ defense has been consistently strong under the guidance of defensive coordinator Robert Saleh — they are allowing only 315.2 total YPG which is 5th best in the NFL. San Francisco is 4th in the league by allowing just 206.7 passing YPG — and they got cornerback Richard Sherman back healthy last week in their upset win over the Rams where they allowed just 308 total yards. The 49ers also rank 6th in the NFL by holding opposing rushers to just 3.65 Yards-Per-Carry. The 43 combined points scored last week included a defensive touchdown for both teams. Nick Mullens was solid at quarterback in place of Jimmy Garoppolo as he completed 24 of 35 passes for 252 yards — but his mediocre 44.2 Quarterback Rating this season is below the 59.9 QBR that Garoppolo posted this season. Under Mullens, the Niners are scoring only 17.7 PPG while averaging just 322.0 total YPG in their last three games. While this is a technical home game for San Francisco, it is, in practice, a road game — and the 49ers are holding teams to just 18.7 PPG along with 274.0 total YPG when playing away from home. Furthermore, the 49ers have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when lists in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and San Francisco has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the number set in that point range. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (485) and the San Francisco 49ers (486). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: Denver (4-7) has lost three of their last four games with their 31-3 loss at home to New Orleans last week as a 17-point underdog. Kansas City (10-1) has won six games in a row after their 27-24 win at Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Kansas City has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win. They return home where the Under is a decisive 29-9-1 in their last 39 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And while the Chiefs score 32.0 PPG at home, they have played 12 of their last 15 home games Under the Total when laying 10.5 to 14 points. After Patrick Mahomes was asked to throw the ball 49 times last week, expect the offensive brain trust to run the ball more this week to take some pressure off of him — and that will burn time off the clock. The Kansas City defense is underrated as they rank 6th in the league by allowing 21.6 Points-Per-Game. The Chiefs have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in December. Denver has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total in December. The Broncos have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Denver has held their last three opponents to just 290.7 total YPG. The Broncos have played three straight games that finished Under the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. And while Denver trailed at halftime by a 17-0 score, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after being behind at halftime by at least two touchdowns. The Broncos have also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. Moving forward, the Under is 13-5-1 in Denver’s last 19 games against teams with a winning record — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total against familiar teams from the AFC West.

FINAL TAKE: The first meeting between these two teams finished with Kansas City winning by a 43-16 score on October 25th in Denver. Mahomes was limited to completing just 15 of 23 passes for 200 yards — the Chiefs scored touchdowns from their defense and special teams to reach the 40-point threshold. The Broncos have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total one playing with revenge from a loss at home — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when avenging a loss at home by at least three touchdowns. 25* AFC West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (279) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (280). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (6-4) has lost two games in a row as well as three of their last four contests after their 30-24 upset loss to Tennessee in overtime back on November 22nd. Pittsburgh (10-0) remained unbeaten this season on November 22nd with their 27-3 win at Jacksonville as an 11-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This game has been rescheduled three times — and while the players may not be in optimal shape to play this game given limited practice time, the defensive game plans should be very fine-tuned — especially with this being a rematch from the Steelers’ 28-24 upset victory as a 4-point underdog on November 1st. Pittsburgh leads the NFL by allowing only 17.4 PPG — and they are second in the league by holding their opponents to just 4.94 Yards-Per-Play. The Steel Curtain has held their last three opponents to just 10.7 PPG along with only 299.0 total YPG. The Under is 17-5-1 in their last 23 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and the Under is 38-18-2 in their last 58 games after a point prawn victory. The Steelers held the Jaguars to just 206 total yards in their last game — and the Under is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. On offense, Pittsburgh did gain 373 yards against Jacksonville — and the Under is 30-11-2 in their last 43 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They will be without running back James Conner in this game who is on the COVID list. But the list for the Ravens is much longer — headlined by quarterback Lamar Jackson being out because of COVID. Robert Griffin III will be under center for Baltimore who leaves the offense even more limited in what they can do in the passing game. RG3 has just one start in the last three years — and it was against these Steelers’ last season when he completed only 11 of 21 passes for 96 yards in Week 17. The Ravens hopes to get J.K. Dobbins and Mark Ingram back off the COVID list this afternoon for this game. Baltimore will run the ball plenty in this game to burn time off the clock — they rushed the ball 47 times for 265 yards even with a healthy Jackson in the first meeting. The Ravens have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a game that finished Over the Total. Baltimore has scored only 21.7 PPG while averaging 309.7 YPG over their last three games with their offensive missing their All-Pro left tackle Ronnie Stanley who is out the year with an injury. The Ravens defense surrendered 423 yards to the Titans — but they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now Baltimore goes back on the road where they are allowing only 18.8 PPG along with 331.6 total YPG. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents. The Under is 17-7-2 in the Steelers’ last 26 games against AFC foes — and the Under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games against divisional opponents. 25* NFL NBC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (279) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (275) and the Philadelphia Eagles (276). THE SITUATION: Seattle (7-3) snapped a two-game losing streak two Thursdays ago with their 28-21 win over Arizona as a 3-point favorite. Philadelphia (3-6-1) has lost two games in a row with their 22-17 loss at Cleveland last Sunday as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 8 straight home games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. Philadelphia managed only 315 yards in the loss to the Browns with QB Carson Wentz continuing to struggle. Wentz has a career-low 58.4% completion percentage along with a Passer Rating of 73.3 which is also a career-low. The Eagles are scoring only 19.0 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 291.3 total YPG. Wentz is flailing behind a disaster of an offensive line that has been ravaged with injuries. With the season-ending injury to Lane Johnson, Philly will be using their tenth different offensive line configuration for this game. The Eagles have allowed 40 sacks this season which is the most in the league — and they are last in adjusted sack rate. But the Philadelphia defense is playing better as of late. They have allowed 19.3 PPG over their last three games along with just 323.7 total YPG which is over -6 PPG and -19.0 net YPG below their season averages. Now the Eagles return home where they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total. Philadelphia has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. Furthermore, the Eagles have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total in November including six straight Unders. Seattle is also playing better on defense as of late after holding the Cardinals to just 314 yards of offense. Funny what happens when safety Jamal Adams gets healthy again while adding defensive lineman Carlos Dunlap from Cincinnati into the mix. The Seahawks have registered 16 sacks over their last four games. And while the 374.3 YPG they have allowed in their last three games since acquiring Dunlap which is over 60 YPG below their season average. Seattle also seemed to make a philosophical change last week to get back to running the ball more. They had 31 rushing attempts in that game which was more than the 28 pass attempts of Russell Wilson. Getting Carlos Hyde back at running back helped — he had rushed for 79 yards in his first game back from injury. Chris Carson returns to action tonight as well after he has been out for injury — so this should be a heavy ground game attack for the Seahawks. Wilson was beginning to make mistakes with turnovers feeling the pressure to carry the team with his arm — so head coach Pete Carroll dialed back the “Let Russ Cook” directives. Running the ball more also helps the defense — the commitment to running the football kept Kyler Murray only on the field for less than 25 minutes last week. Additionally, the ankle injury to right tackle Braden Shell will likely compel more rushing attempts from this team since he thrives in pass protection — and his replacement, Cedric Ogbuehi, struggles in that area. Now Seattle goes back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Over the Total against teams who do not have a winning record at home. They also have played 9 of their last 13 road games Over the Total as the favorite. Additionally, while the Eagles are averaging only 5.5 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game, the Seahawks have played 22 of their last 29 road games Under the Total against teams who average no more than 5.7 YPA. And while Seattle averages 31.8 PPG, Philadelphia has played 7 straight home games Under the Total against teams who average at least 24 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played twice last season in Philadelphia including the NFC wildcard game with both games ending in a 17-9 victory for the Seahawks. The Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on Monday Night Football. While I expect more than 26 combined points this time around, look for a lower-scoring game that stays below 50 combined points. Maybe even some scoring drives will (finally) have to settle for some field goals! 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (275) and the Philadelphia Eagles (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (273) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (274). THE SITUATION: Chicago (5-5) has lost four games in a row after their 19-13 loss at home to Minnesota back on November 16th as a 3.5-point underdog. Green Bay (7-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 34-31 loss in overtime at Indianapolis as a 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Chicago scored only 6 points in the first half against the Vikings after not scoring in the first half of their last game against Tennessee — but this organization has covered the point spread in a decisive 53 of their last 83 gams after not scoring more than a touchdown in the first half in two straight games. The Bears managed only 149 total yards against Minnesota with just 124 of these yards in the air. Chicago has then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after failing to gain at least 150 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. Nick Foles was knocked out of that game last week with a hip injury that will keep him out of this game. Mitchell Trubisky will be the starting quarterback in this game — and I think he should play better than he did earlier in the season. Trubisky has nothing to lose now so the pressure should be off. This will also be his first start with offensive coordinator Bill Lazor calling the plays since he took over those responsibilities two games ago for head coach Matt Nagy. Don’t be surprised if Trubisky is more active with his legs. The team will get running back David Montgomery back for this game as well which will be a big help — he leads the team with 472 rushing yards. Playing Green Bay may help since they are last in the NFL in Red Zone defense with opposing offenses scoring in 97% of their trips inside the Packers’ 20-yard line this season. The Bears’ defense should keep them in this game. They are 9th in the NFL by allowing 340.1 Yards-Per-Game — and they are holding their opponents to 20.9 PPG. Chicago has not allowed more than 96 rushing yards in seven straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in at least two straight games. Chicago has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games against fellow NFC North opponents. Green Bay blew a 28-14 lead last week against the Colts — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after owning a two-touchdown or better halftime lead in their last game. Aaron Rodgers completed 27 of 38 passes for 311 yards in that game — but the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Green Bay has averaged 6.8, 6.7, and 6.5 Yards-Per-Play in each of their last three games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in three straight games. Now the Packers return home where they have struggled in their last two games with a narrow 24-20 win over lowly Jacksonville and getting upset by the Vikings by a 28-22 score. Perhaps the team misses the fans in Lambeau Field? There will be an audience of up to 500 tonight consisting of friends and family — but that will not accomplish much regarding the energy level in the stadium. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when laying 7.5 to 14 points. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in November.

FINAL TAKE: Rodgers is just 6-12-1 straight-up in his last nineteen starts again teams with a top-ten defense. And while he is leading an offense that is third in seventh in total yardage, Chicago has won eight of their last eleven games when facing a top-ten offense. A Bears’ victory pulls them within one game of first place of the Packers in the NFC North — expect a close game. 25* NFC North Game of the Month with the Chicago Bears (273) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (260) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (259). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (4-6) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week with their 31-28 upset loss to Dallas as a 7-point favorite. Carolina (4-7) comes off a 20-0 shutout victory over Detroit last Sunday as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota has been very reliable when picking themselves up off the mat after a loss under head coach Mike Zimmer as they have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 51 games after a straight-up loss. The Vikings have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games are a narrow loss by 6 points or less. Minnesota has been playing much better football as of late — and they still have an outside shot to make the playoffs. They have held their last three opponents to just 21.3 PPG along with 315.3 total Yards-Per-Game despite last week’s results. The Vikings have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. Kirk Cousins played well last week as he completed 22 of 30 passes for 314 yards with two touchdown passes and join interceptions. Running back Dalvin Cook has been sublime this season (when healthy) — he rushed for 115 yards with a touchdown on 27 carries last week. Minnesota gained 430 yards in the losing effort to the Cowboys — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Vikings are scoring 27.0 PPG over their last three games while averaging 434.0 total YPG. Wide receiver Adam Thielen is out for this game with after a positive COVID test but I expect this to be the Cook show on the ground against a defense that allows opposing rushers to average 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry. Minnesota stays at home where they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Carolina is likely due for a letdown after their dominant performance against the hapless Lions. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. And while they held Detroit (with an injured Matthew Stafford who had not practiced all week) to just 185 yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Carolina is averaging only 332.0 total YPG in their last three contests — and they will be without running back Christian McCaffrey who was declared out with a shoulder injury for this game. The Panthers snapped a five-game losing streak with their win over the Lions — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after losing at least four of their last five games.

FINAL TAKE: The Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a losing record. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in November under Zimmer’s leadership. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (260) minus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (259). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (261) and the Indianapolis Colts (262). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (7-3) has won two of their last three games with their 30-24 upset victory at Baltimore last Sunday as a 6-point underdog. Indianapolis (7-3) has won two straight as well as four of their last five games after their 34-31 win over Green Bay last week as a 1.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Titans have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after an upset victory in their last game. Despite the win last week, Tennessee has only averaged 23.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging a mere 315.0 total YPG. They will have revenge on their mind after losing at home to Indianapolis back on November 12th by a 34-17 score — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by at least two touchdowns. Expect plenty of running from the Titans behind Derrick Henry in this rematch with the Titans the top rushing team in the NFL. That will burn time off the clock and shorter the number of possessions for both teams. Tennessee has also played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total as an underdog of up to 3 points. The Titans are completing 65.3% of their passes this season — and they are playing a Colts team that has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams who are completing at least 64% of their passes. Indianapolis enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against the Packers last week — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after producing a +2 net turnover or better margin in their last game. Indianapolis has scored 34 points in their last two games with both games going Over the Total with at least 51 combined points scored — but this sets up the Under as a nice contrarian play. The Colts have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs. Indy has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after seeing at least 50 combined points scored in their last two games. The Colts are top-five in defense by allowing only 20.8 PPG — and they hold their visitors to just 293.2 total YPG when playing at home.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total when playing in Indianapolis. Expect this rematch to be lowering scoring than the one they played just 17 days ago. 25* AFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (261) and the Indianapolis Colts (262). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Washington Football Team (123) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (124). THE SITUATION: Washington (3-7) snapped their two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 20-9 victory over Cincinnati as a 2-point favorite. Dallas (3-7) ended a four-game losing streak last week with their 31-28 upset victory at Minnesota as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FOOTBALL TEAM PLUS THE POINTS: One good game from the Cowboys has everyone jumping on their bandwagon — even though they were outgained by the Vikings last week by -54 net yards. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they had failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a narrow win by 6 points or less. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. Even after scoring 31 points last week, the Cowboys are averaging only 19.7 PPG along with 335.0 total YPG in their last three games. Dallas also surrendered 430 yards to the Vikings last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Cowboys are last in the league by allowing 31.8 PPG — and they are surrendering 36.8 PPG at home along with 396.2 total YPG. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and the Cowboys have long been Fool’s Gold when favored at home as they have failed to pay off those winning tickets in 46 of their last 78 home games laying the points. Additionally, Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games as a favorite. The Cowboys have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Washington has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. And while the Football team has only covered the point spread once in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Despite their losing record, Washington is outgaining their opponents by +8.2 net Yards-Per-Game. They have lost all three of their close games decided by one scoring possession. They are winless on the road despite outgaining those opponents by +19.0 net YPG. The Football Team has been the best pass defense in the league that is holding their opponents to just 195 passing YPG. Led by rookie defensive end Chase Young, Washington is tied for third in the NFL with 32 sacks. The offense should turn the ball over less with the veteran Alex Smith under center. While his mobility is not the same as it was before his leg injury last year, he is finding his rhythm as a passer again. Smith has thrown for 325 and 390 yards in his previous two games before completing 17 of 25 passes for 166 yards in the winning effort last week. The Football Team is averaging 397.0 total YPG in their last three games with Smith starting under center. And while the Cowboys are allowing 6.1 Yards-Per-Play this season, the Football team has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 25 games against teams that allow at least 6.0 YPP.

FINAL TAKE: Washington has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 trips to Dallas to play the Cowboys — and the underdog has covered the point spread in 28 of the last 41 meetings between these two teams in this rivalry. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Washington Football Team (123) plus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (124). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (121) and the Detroit Lions (122). THE SITUATION: Houston (3-7) has won two of their last three games with their 27-20 upset victory at home against New England last week as a 2.5-point underdog. Detroit (4-6) has lost three of their last four games with their 20-0 loss at Carolina as a 3-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The final injury reports make a push a solid Under play into a very good one on a short week. The Texan ruled out wide receivers Kenny Stills and Randall Cobb out this week their quad and toe injuries — leaving quarterback Deshaun Watson missing key weapons in a wide receiver corps that was already missing DeAndre Hopkins this season from that ill-fated trade that the now-deposed Bill O’Brien made in the offseason. Now Detroit has declared this morning that rookie running back DeAndre Swift will not play as he is not ready to return to action from the concussion he suffered two games ago. The Lions are already without wide receivers Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola to injury. There just simply not much skill-position talent on the field for a game with the Total set in the 50s. Houston has played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win at home. The Texans did surrender 435 yards in their game on Sunday with the Patriots averaging 6.8 Yards-Per-Play. Houston has then played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.5 YPP. The Texans are averaging only 20.3 PPG along with 338.7 total YPG in their last three contests. They go back on the road where they are scoring 22.2 PPG while averaging just 329.8 total YPG. Houston has played a decisive 49 of their last 8 road games Under the Total in the second half of the season. Furthermore, Houston has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total as a favorite — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in November. Detroit has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss as a road favorite — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after an upset loss by at least two touchdowns as a road favorite. And while the Lions have only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Detroit surrendered 374 yards to the Panthers’ offense quarterbacked by P.J. Walker — yet they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. On offense, the Lions have scored only 16.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 320.0 total YPG over that span. They managed only 185 yards last week. I suspect Matthew Stafford will be a starting quarterback in the playoffs next season — but it will not be in a Lions uniform. At this point of the season, he is very banged up — and he does not have enough weapons.

FINAL TAKE: The Lions were embarrassed by being shutout last week — but trying to fix all those problems on a short week when undermanned is too much to overcome. I think their defense will play better — but the loss of Swift for this game really hurts (and cemented my call this morning). 25* NFL CBS-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Texans (121) and the Detroit Lions (122). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (473) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (474). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (6-3) has won two of their last three games with their 23-16 win against Seattle as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Tampa Bay (7-3) has won four of their last five contests with their 46-23 victory in Carolina last Sunday as a 6-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles benefited from a +2 net turnover margin in that game against the Seahawks — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of the last 7 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. The Rams also generated 389 yards of offense in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Quarterback Jared Goff is only completing 62.8% of his passes on the road as compared to his 71.4% mark when playing at home — but he is averaging 7.7 Yards-Per-Attempt on the road versus his 7.5 YPA mark when at home His Quarterback Rating declines dips from a 97.2 mark at home to a 93.2 mark on the road — so perhaps the conventional wisdom that Goff has disparate home/road splits is a bit overplayed? He will not have his rock at left tackle in Andrew Whitworth who is out at least six weeks with a knee injury. But Los Angeles can lean on their elite defense that leads the league in points allowed (18.7 PPG), total yardage (296.4 YPG), Yards-Per-Play allowed (4.78), and opponent’s Passer Rating (81.0). This defense travels — they are holding their home hosts to just 276.2 total YPG. The Rams have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road with the total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. Additionally, Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Tampa Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they are just 1-3-2 ATS in their last 6 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. And while the Buccaneers outgained the Panthers by +357 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least 200 yards. I don’t love this situation for Tampa Bay. Head coach Bruce Arians identified that his team was “really tired” having played ten straight weeks with a bye. Arians gave the team three days off which may help — but it is certainly not an advantage. The Bucs have also been listless in prime-time games with a 1-2 record with their lone win being their listless effort to begin the month at home against the Giants where they only won by a 25-23 score. Tampa Bay beats up on the bad teams in the league — they are 7-0 against teams with a defense ranked outside the top-ten in yards allowed while averaging 35.8 PPG in those contests. But they are winless in their three games against teams with a top-ten total defense while averaging just 15 PPG. Quarterback Tom Brady has been sacked 14 times this season — with nine of them occurring in their two games against New Orleans and their game against Chicago which accounts for their three losses. Led by Aaron Donald, the Rams began the week tied for second in the NFL with 31 sacks. Brady passed for 341 yards against the Panthers — but the Bucs are just 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after gaining at least 250 passing yards in their last game. They return home to Tampa Bay where they are just 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games when favored by up to 7 points. Furthermore, the Buccaneers are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angels will also have revenge on their minds after getting blasted at home to the Buccaneers with Jameis Winston last year by a 55-40 score despite being a 9-point favorite in that September 29th game. That result may not matter much to Brady but it does to head coach Sean McVay and this Rams team. The Bucs are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games in November. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Rams (473) plus the points versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (471) and the Las Vegas Raiders (472). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (8-1) has won four games in a row after their 33-31 win against Carolina two Sundays ago as a 10-point favorite. Las Vegas (6-3) has won three straight games with their 37-12 victory against Denver last week as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Raiders handed the Chiefs their lone loss of the season on October 11th with their 40-32 upset victory in Kansas City as a 10-point underdog. Las Vegas surprised the Chiefs’ defense by abandoning their ball-control conservative offense with several aggressive deep shots down the field from quarterback Derek Carr. The veteran Raiders’ signal-caller passed for 219 yards from deep throws which are — by far — his season-high in that category. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will have his defense ready for these deep throws this time around. Look for the Jon Gruden offense to focus primarily on ball-control and winning the time of possession by running the ball and burning the clock. During their three-game winning streak, the Raiders have averaged 190.7 rushing YPG which is the second-best mark in the league over that span. They are averaging only 138 passing YPG during that span which is the second-lowest mark in the league. This commitment to the run has helped Las Vegas defense hold these last three opponents to just 14.7 PPG and 325.3 total YPG with opposing quarterback’s posting just a collective 68.1 Passer Rating. The Raiders have gained at least 160 rushing yards in three straight games — and they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in three straight games. Las Vegas has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win over a divisional rival — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win by at least three touchdowns against an AFC West foe. The Raiders stay at home where the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record — and they have played 10 of their last 14 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 10 points. Las Vegas did have a COVID scare this week but it looks like the only defensive player they will not have available is defensive lineman Clelin Ferrell. Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Chiefs had also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The KC defense has continued to improve under Spagnuolo as they are allowing only 20.3 PPG this season. In their four road games, the Chiefs are holding their home hosts to just 18.3 PPG along with 331.0 total YPG. Kansas City has played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as a favorite. The Chiefs have also played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 22 of their last 31 meetings Under the Total. Expect this rematch to be a lower-scoring game than the first meeting that saw 72 combined points scored. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (471) and the Las Vegas Raiders (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (406) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (405). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (6-3) looks to bounce back from their 23-17 upset loss at New England as a 7-point favorite last week for Sunday Night Football. Tennessee (6-3) also looks to rebound from a 34-17 loss at Indianapolis on Thursday Night Football last week where they were a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: This is a revenge situation for Baltimore, who got clocked by the Titans in the AFC Divisional round last year at home by a 28-12 score despite being a 10-point favorite. Derrick Henry ran right over the Ravens’ defense with 195 rushing yards in that game. After having the interior of their run defense exposed like that, Baltimore signed defensive linemen Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams to shore up that part of their defense. Problem solved, right? Unfortunately, injuries will keep both of those players out for this game. So, fade the Ravens then, right? Well, not so fast. Sure, I wish those players were available — but it was not just Henry that did in Baltimore in that playoff game. QB Lamar Jackson committed three turnovers in that game, while the Ravens failed to convert on several 4th down opportunities that played a significant role in shifting the momentum of that game. If Lamar plays better — and the offense executes at a higher level — then Baltimore should take the Titans out of the position where they can pound the rock to Henry. The Ravens are outscoring their opponents by +8.8 PPG due to their strong defense that is holding their opponents to just 18.3 PPG along with 323.0 total YPG. Baltimore’s defense is even stingier at home where they limit their guests to only 17.8 PPG along with just 312.3 YPG. Additionally, the Ravens have held their last three opponents to 289.3 total YPG. They outgained the Patriots last week by +49 net yards but they lost the turnover battle and weather played a major role in that game. This remains a team that has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in November. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to an AFC South rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by at least two touchdowns. And while the Titans surrendered 293 passing yards to the Colts, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. This Tennessee has regressed from that playoff game last year — they are allowing 398.1 total YPG this season. They are also dealing with a host of injuries themselves with potentially six starters out including defensive end Jadeveon Clowney and wide receiver Adam Humphries. Despite their 6-3 record, the Titans are being outgained by -24.8 net YPG this season. Over their last three games, they are being outscored by a touchdown while managing only 321.0 YPG which has translated into just 20.3 PPG. Now they go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. One final thing about this Titans team that should always be considered: they are simply a hot mess on special teams, especially with their punter and placekicker. A +10 net turnover margin is the reason why this team has overcome poor special teams play and losing the yardage battle to their opponents. But those turnover Gods are a fickle beast.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against AFC rivals — and the Ravens have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games against AFC foes. I don’t love the injury situation for Baltimore — but it is not great with Tennessee either. The bottom line is that I will regret not investing in this situation at a 25* level. Let’s attack! 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Baltimore Ravens (406) minus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (405). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (322) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (321). THE SITUATION: Seattle (6-3) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 23-16 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 3-point underdog. Arizona (6-3) has won four of their last five games after their 32-30 win against Buffalo as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Seattle should respond with a strong effort tonight. They are a decisive 32-15-4 ATS in their last 51 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss to an NFC West opponent. They are also 12-5-2 ATS in their last 19 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Seahawks have covered the point spread in 51 of their last 83 games after losing two games in a row. And while Seattle has not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. Injuries have hit this team hard. I did not make a call on this game until Thursday, given the potential attrition to tonight’s roster. Cornerbacks Quinton Dunbar and Shaquille Griffin along with running back Chris Carson are not expected to play. Starting center Ethan Pocic is also out tonight as he continues in the concussion protocol — and that is significant. But head coach Pete Carroll does expect backup center Kyle Fuller to play after the high ankle sprain he suffered on Sunday. That development was essential for me to endorse the Seahawks tonight. Carroll also expects wide receiver Tyler Lockett and running back Carlos Hyde to play as well. Quarterback Russell Wilson needs to reduce his turnovers after being responsible for seven in the last two games. Seattle has lost the turnover battle in these last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 36 of their last 55 games after having a -1 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games. The Seahawks defense is worst in the league by allowing 448.3 total YPG — but this unit has been playing better despite the losing streak. They have held their last three opponents to 386.7 YPG which is more than 60 YPG below their current season average. Safety Jamal Adams has been injured but he did return to register seven tackles with two sacks and a forced fumble against the Rams. The Seahawks have also recently acquired defensive linemen Carlos Dunlap and Snacks Harrison who should both improve the pass rush and run defense for this team. Seattle returns home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 home games with the total set at 49.5 or higher. The Seahawks are also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games in November. Arizona needed the miracle Hail Mary play from Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins to steal that victory over the Bills last week. Yet the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after a win at home where they did not cover the point spread. Arizona is also dealing with a host of injuries — especially on their defensive line which makes me a bit less concerned about the Seattle offensive line. Defensive end Zach Allen went on the Injured Reserve with an ankle injury — he is the fourth defensive linemen to get placed on the IR for this team. Nose tackle Corey Peters is already out the season with a knee and Pro Bowl linebacker Chandler Jones is on the IR with his biceps injury. Now defensive end Jordan Phillips has been declared out with a foot injury for tonight. This Cardinals defense has declined as of late (they really miss Jones). They are allowing 32.7 PPG over their last three games along with 417.7 YPG with all three of those opponents scoring at least 30 points. Arizona has gained at least 438 yards in five straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 375 yards in their last game. And while they have rushed for at least 159 yards in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games played on a Thursday night — and Seattle is 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games played on a Thursday night. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (322) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (275) and the Chicago Bears (276). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (3-5) has won two games in a row after their 34-20 win at home against Detroit as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Chicago (5-4) has lost three straight games after their 24-17 loss at Philadelphia as a 6.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Vikings have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a victory by at least two touchdowns. Minnesota has also played a decisive 43 of their last 40 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and this includes them playing nine of their last eleven games Under the Total after reaching at least 30 points in their last game. Behind running back Delvin Cook who rushed for 206 yards on 22 carries, the Vikings put up 275 rushing yards against the Lions defense — but they have then played 16 of their last 20 games on the road Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Now they face this Bears’ defense that is 9th in the NFL by allowing only 101.5 rushing Yards-Per-Game when playing at home. Minnesota scores 24.1 PPG on the road while averaging 339.5 total YPG in their four road games — and those numbers are -3.1 PPG and —42.7 YPG below their season averages. The Vikings have also benefited from a +3 net turnover margin against the Lions. Yet they have played 29 of their last 59 games Under the Total including three of their last four after enjoying a +3 or better turnover margin in their last game. Minnesota is playing better on defense as of late — they have held their last two opponents to 22 and 20 points which are both season lows. The Vikings have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. Chicago has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. The Bears have not scored more than 23 points in six straight games. They did gain 375 yards last week against the Eagles — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Chicago is undermanned at the running back position right now with David Montgomery out as he goes through the concussion protocol and Tarik Cohen already out the year with his torn ACL. The Bears will rely on converted wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson, Ryan Nall, and Artavis Pierce (along with perhaps Lamar Miller coming off their practice squad after missing all of last season with a torn ACL) as their running backs. Quarterback Nick Foles 52 pass attempts against the Eagles — and the Bears have played 14 of their last 16 games Under the Total after passing the ball at least 50 times in their last game. Chicago has also played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. They return home where they are scoring only 17.8 PPG while averaging 286.3 total YPG — but they are holding their opponents to just 19.3 PPG at Soldier Field. The Bears have played 12 of their last 15 home games Under the Total. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. It will be cold on the south side of Chicago tonight with the temperatures dropping into the low-40s — and the Bears have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in November. Chicago has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games played in Chicago Under the Total. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (275) and the Chicago Bears (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (273) and the New England Patriots (274). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (6-2) has won four of their last five games after their 24-10 win at Indianapolis last Sunday as a 1-point underdog. New England (3-5) snapped a four-game losing streak on Monday with their 30-27 victory over the New York Jets as a 9-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after an upset win by at least two touchdowns as a road underdog. Baltimore has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning at least two of their last three games. And while that was the first time that the Ravens have covered the point spread in their last three games, they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after only covering the point spread once in their last three games. Baltimore is an excellent defensive team — they lead the NFL by allowing only 17.8 PPG. They have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Ravens have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents. And in their last 7 games played on field turf, Baltimore has played 6 of these games Under the Total. New England has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Patriots have also played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing on a short week after an appearance on Monday Night Football. New England is scoring only 20.8 PPG which is 28th in the league — and that number drops to just 18.8 PPG while averaging jut 323.0 total YPG in their four games at home. Those are ominous numbers when considering that the Patriots have played only one top-ten defense this season — and quarterback Cam Newton managed only 98 passing yards in that game where they scored just 6 points. New England has played 4 of their last 5 game Under the Total at home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Patriots have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in November.

FINAL TAKE: Weather will likely play a significant role in this game tonight. There is a 100% chance of rain with thunderstorms possible. Winds will be 9 to 18 MPH with gusts up to 47 MPH. This will negatively impact both passing games — and both Lamar Jackson and Cam Newton can struggle with their accuracy. Both defenses will likely get away with putting an extra defender in a box to stop the run given these conditions. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Baltimore Ravens (273) and the New England Patriots (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (277) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (278). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (2-6) has lost two games in a row with their 31-26 loss at home to Las Vegas last Sunday as a 1-point underdog. Miami (5-3) has won four games in a row with their 34-31 upset win at Arizona as a 6-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles lost their fifth game of the season on the final play once again last week with a dropped pass in the end zone taking victory away from head coach Anthony Lynn’s team. Everyone is banging away at Lynn this week for his game management late in the game. Perhaps some of these criticisms are valid — but this dynamic is overplayed. While I disagree with those in the analytics community that thinks winning close games is solely a function of luck, I certainly agree that winning and losing close games often is dependent on one or two plays — and often those plays experience plenty of variance regarding the random events that take place within them (like dropping a touchdown pass). The ability to consistently play close games is the more predictable variable for this Chargers team than what happens in the final moments. Los Angeles’ has had a halftime lead six times this season. All six of their losses have been by seven points or less — and all those losses were by a combined 24 points. And going back to last year, the Chargers have seen 15 of their 17 losses decided by one scoring possession. What is more consistent is yardage numbers — and LA is outgaining their opponents by +61.5 net YPG. The Chargers are getting their ground game going to complement rookie QB, Justin Herbert, as they are averaging 146 rushing YPG over their last five games. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing two games in a row. They also have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games on the road after a game where both teams scored at least 24 points. The Chargers outgained the Raiders last week by +120 net yards as they held them to just 320 yards of offense. LA is 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Now they go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games — and they are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games away from home. Miami was outgained by -130 net yards in their upset win last week. And that accomplishment came on the heels of their upset win over the Rams the previous week where they won despite being outgained by a whopping -326 net yards! The Dolphins scored two defensive touchdowns against the Rams before returning a 36-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown last week against the Cardinals. Scoring defensive touchdowns to overcome getting outgained by more than 100 YPG is simply not sustainable. Miami is being outgained by -61.5 net YPG — and they are losing the yardage battle at home by -106.8 net YPG. The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 25 home games after a win by a field goal or less. And while Miami has won five of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 29 home games after winning five or six of their last seven contests. Now this team returns home where they are an ugly 22-46-1 ATS in their last 69 games as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers are 34-15-4 ATS in their last 53 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games as a dog getting up to 3 points. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (277) plus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (121) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (122). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (5-3) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 24-10 upset loss at home to Baltimore as a 1-point favorite. Tennessee (6-2) ended a two-game losing streak on Sunday with their 24-17 win against Chicago as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): Indianapolis outgained the Ravens last week by +79 net yards after holding them to just 260 total yards. Baltimore scored on a defensive touchdown from a 65-yard fumble recovery that helped to make the winning difference. Indianapolis is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a point spread loss — and they are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a double-digit loss at home. The Colts are also 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Indy is scoring a healthy 26.0 PPG this season — and that mark has risen to a 27.3 PPG clip in their last three games with them averaging 378.3 total YPG during that span. Quarterback Philip Rivers is completing 67.9% of his passes with 2087 passing yards and a 7.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average. And while tight end Jack Doyle is out for this game as he recovers from a concussion, Rivers will get wide receiver, T.Y. Hilton, back from the groin injury that has kept him out the last few weeks. The Colts’ offensive line leads the league by allowing only eight sacks this season — and the pass rush is a weakness for the Titans. Rivers should have plenty of time to pick apart the Tennessee secondary. Indianapolis also leads the NFL by allowing only 290.0 total YPG. They go back on the road where they are outgaining their opponents by +46.7 net YPG. The Colts are also 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games in November. Tennessee defeated the Bears last week despite getting outgained by -147 net yards. The Titans managed only 228 total yards against Chicago — and they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. Despite winning six of their eight games, Tennessee is getting outgained by -10.2 net YPG. The Titans have eked out five of the six games they have played that have been decided by one scoring possession. Tennessee surrendered 319 passing yards to Nick Foles last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. And while the Titans rank 7th in the league by scoring 29.0 PPG this year, they are scoring only 22.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 320.3 total YPG which is -63.6 net YPG below their season mark. Additionally, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against fellow AFC opponents. Furthermore, the Titans will be missing a couple of important players with both wide receiver Adam Humphries and cornerback Adoree’ Jackson out with injuries.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their meetings last season with the road team winning both times. The Colts have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 meetings with the Titans including covering the point spread in six of their last eight trips to Nashville to play Tennessee in their building. Indianapolis is 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 Thursday Night Football games — and the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on Thursday nights. 25* AFC South Game of the Month with the Indianapolis Colts (121) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (122). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (474) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (473). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (6-2) enters this game coming off a 25-23 win at New York against the Giants as a 13-point favorite for Monday Night Football. New Orleans (5-2) comes off a 26-23 win at Chicago in overtime last Sunday as a 5.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay was flat on Monday as a double-digit favorite as they were perhaps looking ahead to this NFC South showdown. The Buccaneers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games when playing on a short week on Sunday after featuring on Monday Night Football. Tampa Bay allowed 367 yards to the Giants in the win — but they are 20-9-3 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bucs have one of the best defenses in the league as they are allowing only 20.6 PPG along with just 299.5 total YPG. Tampa Bay also boasts the best-run defense in the league as they hold their opponents to just 70.4 rushing YPG. They have held three opponents to under 50 rushing yards this season. This stout defense is a great combination with the Tom Brady-led offense. What is underrated about Brady is that his offenses limit turnovers. He threw two interceptions in the opening game loss in the Big Easy against the Saints — but he has thrown only two interceptions in his last six games. Furthermore, New Orleans has committed just five turnovers in their last seven games — and they have won the turnover battle in six of their last seven games. Brady is getting comfortable in the Bruce Arians offense. He is averaging 2 touchdown passes per game over his last three starts — and he is completing over 70% of his passes in his last two starts. Since Week Three, Brady has 17 touchdown passes to just one interception. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after a win on the road by 3 points or less. Their victory over the Bears came off a 27-24 win against Carolina — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after winning their last two games by a field goal or less. And while some bettors may consider the Saints “due” because they have not covered the point spread in their last three games, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning their last two games where they did not cover the point spread as a favorite. The Saints defense is an issue as they are allowing 28.1 PPG this season. They are just 16th in the league by allowing 237.9 passing YPG — and they ave allowed two touchdowns of more than 60 yards. Their win over the Bears flew Over the 41 point Total — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams met in Brady’s first game in a Tampa Bay uniform with the Saints winning by a 34-23 score. Brady completed only 23 of 36 passes for what is now his third-lowest completion percentage with the Buccaneers. But New Orleans managed only 82 rushing yards in that game which is their lowest output of the season. Wide receiver Michael Thomas is questionable to return to the field today after missing much of the season. The Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games when playing with revenge against a team that scored at least 28 points against them. 25* NFC South Game of the Year with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (474) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (473). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (468) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Las Vegas Raiders (467). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (2-5) looks to bounce back from a 31-30 loss at Denver last Sunday as a 3-point favorite. Las Vegas (4-3) has won two of their last three games after their 16-6 upset win at Cleveland as a 1-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): That was the fifth game this season that Los Angeles has lost a game decided by seven points or less. All five of the Chargers’ losses have been decided by a combined 19 points. Despite winning only two of their seven games, head coach Anthony Lynn’s team is outgaining their opponents by +51.1 net YPG. They should respond with a strong effort this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after suffering an upset loss in their last game. Additionally, the Chargers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Chargers’ offense is beginning to click under rookie quarterback Justin Herbert. They are scoring 32.0 PPG while averaging 439.7 total YPG with Herbert getting his top two weapons in the passing game, wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, healthy and on the field together at the same time. Los Angeles has scored at least 27 points in four straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after scoring at least 25 points in four straight contests. The Chargers are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning two of their last three contests. The Raiders held the Browns to just 223 yards last week in the weather that limited the passing attacks for both teams. But Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not giving up more than 14 points in their last contest. Despair their winning record, the Raiders are only outgaining their opponents by +1.7 net YPG — and they are getting outscored by -2.3 PPG. They stay on the road for a second straight week where they are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against teams with a losing record at home. They are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games when favored. And in their last 8 games played on field turf, Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread 6 times.

FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have had this game circled on their calendars all year after getting swept by the Raiders last year. Los Angeles lost the first meeting in Oakland by a 26-24 score before getting upset in the rematch in LA by a 24-17 score as a 7-point favorite on December 22nd. This is expected to be a high-scoring game with the Total set in the low 50s — but the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 42 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher and the Chargers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. 25* AFC West Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (468) plus (or minus) the point(s) versus the Las Vegas Raiders (467). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (301) and the San Francisco 49ers (302). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (5-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 28-22 upset loss at home to Minnesota as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. San Francisco (4-4) saw their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with their 37-27 loss at Seattle as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Packers have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. Green Bay generated 400 yards against the Vikings in that loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. Despite that haul of yardage, the Packers’ offense has slowed down significantly since playing Tampa Bay three weeks ago when defensive coordinator Todd Bowles designed a game plan of complicated stunts and disguised schemes that stymied Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay is scoring only 22.3 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 326.7 total YPG in this copycat league. The Packers also allowed Minnesota to generate only 324 yards but a 6.75 Yards-Per-Play rate — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.0 YPP.  Their loss last week came on the heels of their 35-20 victory over Houston two weeks ago — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where at least 50 points were scored. Green Bay stays on the road this week where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as a favorite. Additionally, the Packers have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. Green Bay will not be at full strength with running backs A.J. Dillon and Jamal Williams on the COVID list. Running back Aaron Jones is also questionable with a calf injury — so he is a game-time decision. If Jones cannot play, the available running backs to the Packers’ offense is Tyler Ervin (who is mostly a pass-catching back) and Dexter Williams who would be activated off the practice squad. Those absences are minor compared to the M*A*S*H unit that is San Francisco. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and tight end George Kittle are out indefinitely. Running back Tevin Coleman has been downgraded to out with a knee. Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, left tackle Trent Williams, and wide receiver Deebo Samuel are on the COVID list. Nick Mullens will run the offense — and this will be a run-heavy game-plan against the suspect Packers run defense that is allowing their opponents to average 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry. San Francisco swept the two meetings between these two teams last year — including in the NFC Championship Game where they won by a 37-20 score. The formula for success was running the football and dominating the physical battle — and head coach Kyle Shanahan will certainly keep this same approach for this rematch. This commitment to running the football will burn time off the clock while likely reducing the number of offensive possessions for both teams — and Shanahan is disciplined to not abandon the run if his team falls behind. San Francisco has averaged 402.7 YPG over their last three games — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after averaging at least 400 YPG over their last three games. The Niners return home where they have played 15 of their last 22 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. San Francisco has also played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total as an underdog. Despite a host of injuries on defense headlined by the losses of Nick Bosa, Richard Sherman, and Dee Ford, the Niners are still only allowing 21.6 PPG along with 314.6 total YPG — and those numbers have dropped to 19.7 PPG and 300.7 YPG over their last three games. San Francisco has an outstanding defensive coordinator in Robert Saleh who will have certainly studied closely the Bowles’ game plan from three weeks ago.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total when playing on Thursday Night Football. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (301) and the San Francisco 49ers (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (271) and the Philadelphia Eagles (272). THE SITUATION: Dallas (2-5) has lost two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 25-3 upset loss at Washington last week. Philadelphia (2-4-1) looks to build off their 22-21 win over the New York Giants last week as a 5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a loss by at least two touchdowns. Dallas has also played 16 of their last 21 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. They will be turning to rookie Ben Dinucci under center with Andy Dalton on the shelf after suffering a concussion last week. Frankly, the 7th round pick from James Madison cannot do much worse than Dalton has for this team. He passed for over 3400 yards in his senior season taking the Dukes to the national championship game. He adds desperately needed mobility to the position that Dalton lacks — he rushed for 569 yards with seven touchdowns last season for James Madison. I expect offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to get creative with Dinucci with some designed run plays. I also expect more creativity from Moore in getting the ball in the hands of the uber-talented Dallas wide receiving corps. And I expect more from running back Ezekiel Elliott after the Cowboys managed only 83 rushing yards last week against the Football Team. Dallas has played 14 of their last 16 games Over the Total after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. The offensive line for the Cowboys is mired with injuries but they do expect guard Zack Martin to return to the starting lineup for this game. Dinucci’s mobility will make a big difference. Dallas has played two straight Unders with Dalton being their primary quarterback. The Cowboys have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a game that fished Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after playing two straight Overs. Even if Dallas struggles to score points, their defense is likely to offer the Eagles plenty of scoring opportunities. The Cowboys are last in the league by allowing 34.7 PPG — and these opponents are generating 408.1 total YPG against them this season. Philadelphia is scoring 26.3 PPG over their last three games while averaging 380.7 total YPG despite a number of injuries on offense. Quarterback Carson Wentz led an offense that gained 442 yards against the Giants last week — and the Eagles have played 5 straight games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Wentz has thrown six touchdown passes in his last three games. The Philly offense is slowly getting healthier with tackle Lane Johnson, tight end Dallas Goedert, and rookie wide receiver Jalen Reagor all expected to play tonight. And while the Eagles win over the Giants last week finished Under the 44.5 point total, they have then played 12 of their last 20 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Dallas has played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total as a double-digit underdog — and they have also played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total against fellow teams from the NFC East. With the number in the low-40s, expect a higher scoring game. 25* NFC East Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (271) and the Philadelphia Eagles (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (270) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (269). THE SITUATION: Seattle (5-1) looks to rebound from their 37-34 upset loss in overtime at Arizona as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday night. San Francisco (4-3) pulled off their second-straight upset victory last week with their 33-6 victory at New England as a 3-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Seattle should respond with a strong effort as they are 32-15-4 ATS in their last 51 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by 6 points or less. The Seahawks are also 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 games after a point spread loss. Seattle dominated time of possession having the football for over nine minutes longer than the Cardinals — and they outgained them by +53 net yards. If not for a late personal foul that kept an Arizona drive alive, the Seahawks likely win that game. Seattle went into the locker room at halftime with a 27-17 lead — that was the first game in the Pete Carroll/Russell Wilson era where they lost a game after enjoying a halftime lead of at least four points. Wilson completed 33 of 50 passes for 388 yards while adding another 84 yards on the ground. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after passing for at least 300 yards in their last game. Wilson leads an offense that is tops in the NFL in both scoring 33.8 PPG and in averaging 425.2 total YPG. The Seattle defense is a weakness — and the recently acquired Carlos Dunlap will not be able to play this week given COVID restrictions for newly acquired players. But Carroll expects to get Jamal Adams back on the field after he has been out with a groin injury. The Seahawks surrendered 360 yards last week — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. They are also 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. Seattle returns home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. And in their last 6 games in November, the Seahawks are 5-0-1 ATS. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 road games after not allowing more than 6 points in their last game. The 49ers are slowly getting a bit healthier — but this remains a shell of the Super Bowl team last season with Nick Bosa, Richard Sherman, Dee Ford, and Raheem Mostert all on Injured Reserve as they headline a still very long injured list. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. They are also 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November. Furthermore, the Niners have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against NFC West foes.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco is just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games against the Seahawks — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games in Seattle. They did upset the Seahawks on the road in the last meeting between these two teams by a 26-21 score last December 29th — but that will likely be even more motivation for Seattle to get back to their winning ways this week. 25* NFC West Game of the Year with the Seattle Seahawks (270) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (101) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (102). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (1-6) looks to bounce back from their 23-22 upset loss at home to Detroit as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Carolina (3-4) has lost their last two games after their 27-24 loss at New Orleans as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta blew their third game where they had a late lead when running back Todd Gurley could not stop himself from stumbling into the end zone after getting first down inside the Lions’ 10-yard line late in that game. The touchdown gave Matthew Stafford one last opportunity to score a touchdown — which he did on the last play of the game — to steal the victory. The Falcons have suffered four upset losses this season — and they have four net close losses in games decide by one scoring possession. Yet Atlanta still has the better roster than the Panthers. And their defense has played better as of late as they have held each of their last three opponents to just 23 points. The Falcons allowed Detroit to gain 386 yards — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Atlanta goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog. And in their last 6 games against teams with a losing record, the Falcons have covered the point spread 5 times. Carolina was outgained by the Saints last week by -132 net yards. The Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by 6 points or less. All three of Carolina’s victories have been as an underdog. They return home where they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Furthermore, the Panthers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. And in their last 11 games as a favorite, Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of these contests. There had been speculation that the Panthers would activate Christian McCaffrey for this game — but he remained on the Injured Reserve list this afternoon with his ankle sprain. Carolina is missing some players on their offensive line with tackle Russell Okung downgraded to doubtful with his calf injury and Michael Schofield III on the COVID list. The Panthers are also missing defensive tackle Kawan Short, defensive end Yetur Gross-Matos, and strong safety Juston Burris who are all on IR.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta will be looking to avenge a 23-16 upset loss at home to Carolina on October 11th which was the final game for both head coach Dan Quinn and general manager Thomas Dimitroff before both were fired the next day. Wide receiver Julio Jones did not play in that game either with his hamstring injury — but he is in better health now after hauling in eight catches for 97 yards last week against the Lions. The Falcons are wavering 28.4 PPG when Jones is in the lineup. 25* NFC South Game of the Month with the Atlanta Falcons (101) plus the points versus the Carolina Panthers (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (475) and the Los Angeles Rams (476). THE SITUATION: Chicago (5-1) has won two games in a row after their 23-16 upset win at Carolina as a 2-point underdog. Los Angeles (4-2) looks to bounce back from their 24-16 upset loss at San Francisco last Sunday night as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Chicago’s defense is holding its opponents to just 19.3 PPG this season. The Bears have not allowed more than 26 points all season — and they have held their last three opponents to less than 20 points. But the Chicago offense is another matter entirely. The Bears are averaging only 21.3 PPG this season — and tapping Nick Foles as their savior for a post-Mitchell Trubisky era has not solved the problem. Chicago has scored only 43 combined points in their last two games while settling for five field goals after stalled drives along the way. Foles is averaging only 5.9 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt over his last two starts. He is not getting much help from the Bears’ rushing attack that is without running back Tarik Cohen is out the season with a torn ACL. In their two last two victories, Chicago has accumulated only 98 total rushing yards while averaging just 2.5 Yards-Per-Carry. Now this team stays on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and they have played 10 of their last 13 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Chicago has also played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total as an underdog overall. Furthermore, the Bears have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. The Rams surrendered 390 yards last week to the 49ers, but they have then played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Los Angeles has been playing good defense as they have held their opponents to just 19.0 PPG along with 318.5 total YPG. The Rams return home where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when laying the points. Los Angeles has also played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total as the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Rams have played 6 straight games Under the Total in October — and the Bears have played 4 straight Unders in October. Chicago has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (475) and the Los Angeles Rams (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (467) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (468). THE SITUATION: Seattle (5-0) returns to the field after their bye week after last defeating Minnesota by a 27-26 two weeks ago as a 6.5-point favorite. Arizona (4-2) comes off a 38-10 upset win at Dallas on Monday as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning at least three games in a row. Seattle comes off their bye week which means head coach Pete Carroll and his staff has conducted their self-scout regarding what they need to improve. There is no question that the defensive-oriented Carroll made decisions regarding how to improve his defense that is last in the league by allowing 471.2 total YPG. The Seahawks will not have Jamal Adams tonight but they should still play better on that side of the football — even if it means that they do not “Let Russ Cook” as much because they need to run the ball more to protect their defense by keeping them off the field. The fewer plays a defensive player has to make, the fresher he will be later in the game — that is what the coaches say. Seattle has allowed at least 415 yards in all five of their games this season — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. The Seahawks have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing at least 400 yards in two straight games. The 27 points that Seattle scored last week were the fewest they have put up on the scoreboard all season. The Seahawks have played 23 of their last 31 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in three straight games — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in four straight contests. Seattle goes back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when favored. The Seahawks have also played 4 straight games Under the Total in October. Arizona has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Cardinals have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by at least two touchdowns. Arizona has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing on Monday Night Football. The Cardinals will take a page out of the Vikings’ playbook to run the football to keep Wilson off the field. Seattle was on offense for just 20:32 minutes against Minnesota with the Vikings running the ball 40 times for 201 yards. QB Kyler Murray may get the headlines but Arizona is averaging 30 rushing attempts per game for 161 rushing YPG. The Under is 3-1-1 in the Seahawks’ last 5 games after they allowed at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. This commitment to keeping the running game going has helped the Cardinals rank second in the league by allowing 18.7 PPG. Arizona returns home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Cardinals have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total against fellow NFC foes.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played did not see more than 40 combined points scored in their two divisional meetings last season — and the last 5 clashes in Arizona have all finished Under the Total. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (467) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (468). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (470) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (469). THE SITUATION: New England (2-3) has lost two games in a row after their 18-12 upset loss to Denver last Sunday as a 7-point favorite. San Francisco (3-3) enters this game triumphant after their 24-16 upset win over the Los Angeles Rams last Sunday as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: This is the first time that Bill Belichick’s team has been below .500 in October in 225 games. Their 26-10 loss at Kansas City two weeks ago was not a surprise since they were without Cam Newton in that game. Do not underestimate the negative impact the lack of practices has had on this team over the last two weeks. I believe Belichick and his coaching staff were able to address a host of issues this week in what was their first uninterrupted normal week of preparation since their 36-20 victory over the Raiders three weeks ago. Belichick’s teams in New England are a decisive 49-24-1 ATS in their last 74 games after a straight-up loss. I expect this Patriots’ offense to improve significantly this week after struggling against the Broncos. New England has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after not scoring more than 14 points in two straight contests. The Patriots defense is playing quite well — they held the Chiefs to just 19 points from their offense while limiting them to only 323 yards two weeks ago before holding the Broncos to 299 yards last week. Belichick teams usually are reliable in October as they are 42-17-2 ATS in their last 61 games in this month — and the Patriots have covered the point spread in seven of their last ten games in October. New England has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games as a home favorite of 7 points or less. San Francisco may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after an upset win as a home underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset win at home against an NFC West rival. The 49ers are starting to get healthy again — but they are still a shell of the team that made it to the Super Bowl. The defense remains a M*A*S*H unit with Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, and Richard Sherman out indefinitely. The Niners will also be without the glue of their defense for the second straight week in linebacker Kwon Alexander who is dealing with a high ankle sprain. On offense, the team put running back Raheem Mostert on IR this week to join Tevin Coleman on that list. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games in October. They are also just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Belichick should have a special game plan for 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo who he drafted and groomed in New England for years before trading him to San Francisco. 25* NFL CBS-TV Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (470) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (469). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (463) and the New York Jets (464). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (4-2) ha lost two straight games after their 26-17 loss to Kansas City on Monday as a 5.5-point underdog. New York (0-6) remained winless on the season last Sunday with their listless 24-0 loss at Miami as a 10-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Buffalo offense managed only 206 yards against the Chiefs on Monday. The Josh Allen for Most Valuable Player talk has completely ceased after the Bills have scored only 21.0 PPG over the last three weeks while averaging just 304.0 total YPG. Allen completed just 14 of 27 passes on Monday for 122 yards. Buffalo has played 4 straight games Under the Total after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not passing for at least 150 yards in their last contests. The Bills’ defense surrendered 466 yards to Kansas City as well — but they have then played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now Buffalo goes on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, the Bills have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have played 6 straight games away from home Under the Total with the total in that 42.5 to 49 range. Playing the Jets may be just what the proverbial doctor ordered as their injury-plagued offense is scoring just 12.5 PPG while averaging 276.7 total YPG. New York has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 21 points. Joe Flacco was the quarterback last week in getting a shutout — and Sam Darnold is probable to play this afternoon. But with running back Le’ Veon Bell traded to Kansas City, he simply lacks supporting talent at the skill positions. The Jets have played 10 of their last 16 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points — and they have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. New York has also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total against fellow AFC East foes.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the September 13th meeting between these two teams which the Bills won by a 27-17 score. The Jets have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 25* AFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (463) and the New York Jets (464). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (303) and the Philadelphia Eagles (304). THE SITUATION: New York (1-5) snapped their five-game losing streak on Sunday with their 20-19 win over Washington as a 2-point favorite. Philadelphia (1-4-1) has lost two games in a row with their 30-28 loss at home to Baltimore as a 10.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Giants have played a decisive 31 of their last 42 games Under the Total after a narrow win by three points or less — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a win by no more than a field goal against an NFC East rival. Additionally, New York has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games away from home Under the Total after a victory where they failed to cover the point spread. The Giants are struggling to score points with running back Saquon Barkley out the season with his torn ACL. New York is scoring just 16.8 PPG while averaging a mere 275.3 total YPG. The Giants leading rusher is QB Daniel Jones — they are 30th in the league by averaging 87.8 rushing YPG. They did pick up Devonta Freeman to be their lead back but he is simply not a threat — his longest carry has gone for only 14 yards. Opposing defenses can lay off the run and use a linebacker to defend against potential passes. But the Giants’ defense has been playing pretty good — they are holding their home hosts to just 315.3 total YPG this season. New York has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Eagles have played two straight Overs where at least 58 combined points were scored. But Philadelphia has played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a game that finished Over the Total — and they have played 28 of their last 42 games Under the Total after playing two straight games where at least 50 combined points were scored. The Philly offense is riddled with injuries. They will be without running back Miles Sanders for a few weeks with his knee injury which means their lead back tonight will be the 5’7 Boston Scott who has rushed for only 67 yards on 21 carries. QB Carson Wentz is without a number of his best targets in the passing game. Wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey and tight end Dallas Goedert are out for tonight. Star tight end Zach Ertz has yet to be ruled out but he suffered an ankle injury that the doctors think will keep him on the shelf for weeks. Wide receiver DeSean Jackson plans to take the field tonight after missing the last three games but it remains to be seen how effective the 33-year old can be coming off a hamstring injury that may impact his speed. The Eagles offensive line is even in worse shape. Starters Brandon Brooks, Andre Dillard, and Isaac Seumaol are all out. The team brought back Jason Peters after Dillard suffered his season-ending biceps injury — and he is also on the Injured Reserve. Tackle Lane Johnson will take the field despite his ankle injury but rookie backup Jack Driscoll is out tonight with an ankle. Wentz has been sacked 25 times this season — and being hurried has contributed to his nine interceptions. The Giants have a good pass rush that ranks 10th in the legacy with 15 sacks. Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 10 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 7 straight home games Under the Totals at home laying 3.5 to 7 points. The Eagles have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing in Philadelphia. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (303) and the Philadelphia Eagles (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (276) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (275). THE SITUATION: Dallas (2-3) enters this game coming off a 37-34 win at home over the New York Giants last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. Arizona (3-2) looks to build off their 30-10 win at New York against the Jets as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: The big news for Dallas is the season-ending injury to Dak Prescott. I think the offense will continue to be productive with Andy Dalton under center. The Red Rider is a veteran with playoff experience who needed to get out of Cincinnati. He has tons of offensive weapons with the Cowboys with Ezekiel Elliott at running back along with one of the most talented and deepest wide receiving corps in the league. I also think the strength of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is his initial scheming (not so much with his ability to adapt) — so I think Dallas will have a short-term advantage with Moore’s wrinkles with the offense as he shapes it to Dalton’s strength. Look for the Cowboys to come out with plenty of energy as they look to salvage their season — and they are still in first place in the hapless NFC East. Dallas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home where they scored at least 31 points. And while the Cowboys have not covered the point spread in any of their games this season, Dallas has then covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after failing to cover the point spread in at least four straight games. The Cowboys lead the NFL by averaging 488.0 total YPG — and that usually is a good sign for them moving forward. After scoring 75 combined points in their last two games, Dallas has scored at least 31 points in four straight games — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 35 points in their last two contests. The Cowboys have gained at least 408 yards in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after gaining at last 400 yards in three straight games. And while Dallas has averaged at least 6.48 Yards-Per-Play in their last four contests, they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in four straight contests. Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Cardinals dominated the woeful Jets by outgaining them by +211 net yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +200 net yards. Quarterback Kyler Murray completed 27 of 37 passes for 380 yards in the victory — but Arizona is just 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games after passing for at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Cardinals are just 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. This Arizona team is also without their All-Pro linebacker Chandler Jones who suffered a season-ending biceps injury. Not only will the Cardinals miss his 19 sacks from last season but they are also without linebacker Devon Kennard.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when playing on Monday Night Football while Dallas has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on MNF. Look for the Cowboys to pull out the victory behind Dalton. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (276) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (274) minus the points versus Los Angeles Rams (273). THE SITUATION:  San Francisco (2-3) was upset for the second straight week last Sunday with their 43-17 shellacking at the hands of Miami as an 8.5-point favorite. Los Angeles (4-1) has won two straight games with their 30-10 win at Washington as a 7-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a critical game for San Francisco after they have been upset in two straight games as a favorite laying more than a touchdown in two straight weeks in what was supposed to be a fruitful three-game homestand. The Niners were upset at home two weeks ago on Sunday Night Football against the Eagles (when we successfully had Philly) before their upset loss at home to the Dolphins last week. San Francisco goes on the road next week for a brutal two-game swing at New England and then Seattle. With the NFC West also including an up-and-coming Arizona team, head coach Kyle Shanahan simply needs to get a victory from his team tonight. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset loss by at least 21 points. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. QB Jimmy Garoppolo was probably rushed back to action last week with his bum ankle as he could not plant his leg which led to him completing only 7 of 17 passes while throwing two interceptions last week before Shanahan got him out of there at halftime. Garoppolo should be better this week — and the pressure will be on for him to perform. The 49ers are also simply ravaged with injuries especially on defense where Richard Sherman, Joey Bosa, and Dee Ford are on IR while linebacker Kwon Alexander is out with an ankle. Yet despite all this attrition, San Francisco is fifth in the NFL by allowing only 323.0 YPG — and they are third in the league by allowing only 215.6 passing YPG and only six touchdown passes. The 49ers should step up in this game as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Los Angeles may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning two games in a row. And while they have not allowed more than 10 points in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. The Rams held the Football Team to just 108 yards of offense last week while limiting them to only a 2.45 Yards-Per-Play average. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after not allowing more than 200 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games on the road after holding their last opponent to no more than 3.5 YPP. And while the combination of Alex Smith and Kyle Allen only managed 70 total passing yards last week, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 100 passing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: All four of Los Angeles’ victories have been against the weak NFC East teams — so their great stats may be propped up by a favorable early schedule. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. 25* NFC West Game of the Month with the San Francisco 49ers (274) minus the points versus Los Angeles Rams (273). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (462) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (461). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (3-0) finally takes the field again after last playing on September 27th where they defeated the Vikings in Minnesota by a 31-30 score as a 3-point favorite. Buffalo (4-0) remained unbeaten last week with their 30-23 win at Las Vegas as a 3-point favorite on October 4th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: Endorsing Tennessee for this game first required an up-to-date assessment regarding who will be playing tonight. The news early this afternoon is that both left tackle Taylor Lewan and wide receiver A.J. Brown are expected to play after being listed as questionable on the last official injured list submitted to the league on Saturday. I thought this would be the case with the extra days to rest and rehabilitate — but confirmation was essential for me to push the proverbial button on this play. The Titans have a long lost of players out due to COVID with wide receivers Adam Humphries and Corey Davis being two of those players. I do have sources at the private high school in Nashville where Tennessee conducted informal workouts last week violating NFL guidelines. These workouts were on multiple days (good!) that involved quarterback Ryan Tannehill (good!) working with coaches (good!) in passing drills which are presumably the players that will be taking Humphries and Davis spots tonight (good!). I am not thrilled that the Titans will have had only two practices back at their open facilities since Saturday — but that is similar to the regimen for teams playing on a Thursday after a short week. At least Tennessee has stayed at home this entire time. And getting seventeen days of rest does not hurt. I think this will be a big night for running back Derrick Henry (who was not at the informal workouts — he was resting, which is good!) who may be poised to have his best game of the season running behind Lewan. I also like the extended time that head coach Mike Vrabel and his staff have had to devise a scheme-specific against the Bills’ QB Josh Allen. The only other significant loss for the Titans from COVID is defensive end, Jeffery Simmons. Tennessee has not covered the point spread yet this season — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after both a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread in and after failing to cover the point spread in at least two straight games. Tannehill led an offense that generated 444 yards against the Vikings in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 400 yards. And in their last 12 games when getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, Tennessee has covered the point spread 8 times. Buffalo has won and covered the point spread in all four of their games this season — but I don’t like it when teams that are red hot get out of their routine. As it is, the Bills have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after winning at least four games in a row. Additionally, Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 38 of their last 60 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Bills have won all three of their games decided by one possession including two wins by just a field goal. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in their win over the Raiders — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after generating a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against fellow AFC opponents while Buffalo is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against AFC foes. While skepticism over the Titans after their long break is deserved, the market has over-adjusted (fueled by the Allen-hype) in making them road favorites of at least a field goal where they would typically be small road dogs according to most power rankings. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Tennessee Titans (462) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (477) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (478). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (1-3) has lost three straight games after their 38-31 loss at Tampa Bay as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. New Orleans (2-2) snapped a two-game losing streak last Sunday with their 35-29 victory in Detroit against the Lions as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Saints have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. New Orleans is a banged-up football team. On defense, cornerbacks Janoris Jenkins and Marston Lattimore along with defensive end Marcus Davenport are all questionable with injuries. On offense, the offensive line is dealing with injuries to Andrus Peat and Ryan Ramczyk that leave them questionable for tonight. And while wide receiver Michael Thomas was questionable with the ankle that kept him out the previous two games, he was suspended for tonight’s game by the field after a physical altercation with a teammate. All these issues will make it harder for a team to cover a point spread of about a touchdown — the Saints just want the victory. They are scoring 30.8 PPG — but they are also allowing 30.8 PPG so far this season. They return home to the Big Easy where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 home games when laying the points. Los Angeles has lost all three of their games by 7 points or less. The Chargers had a 24-7 lead in the second quarter against the Buccaneers before blowing that lead to Tom Brady and company. They also blew a lead against Kansas City before losing that game in overtime — and a fumbled lateral in the waning moments of their game with Carolina probably cost them that victory. This is a quality roster with a good head coach in Anthony Lynn. I am worried about their injuries — particularly on the offensive line. But the Chargers put up 31 points against a very good Tampa Bay defense despite the injuries to Trai Turner and Bryan Bulaga who are starters on their offensive line. They seem to have made the right decision in drafting Justin Herbert at quarterback. The rookie has completed 72% of his passes for 831 yards and an 8.7 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt average. Running back Austin Ekeler is out but they have a solid stable of running backs with rookie Joshua Kelley out of UCLA and former Northwestern Wildcat Josh Jackson. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 31 road games after losing at least three games in a row. The Chargers are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 23 road games with the total set at 49.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles is 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog — and they are 33-15-4 ATS in their last 52 road games when getting the points. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on Monday Night Football — and remember that they will not have a packed and rowdy home crowd for this game given COVID restrictions. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (477) plus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (475) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (476). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (1-3) won their first game of the season last Sunday with their 31-23 upset win at Houston as a 3.5-point underdog. Seattle (4-0) remains unbeaten this season after they defeated Miami on the road last week by a 31-23 score as a 4.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE POINTS: Earning their first win of the season was a good start — but Minnesota remains in an urgent situation with Green Bay and Chicago only having one loss between the both of them in the NFC North. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after losing two of their last three games. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has received his usual level of criticism during the losing streak — but he has led an offense that has scored 61 combined points over the last two games and that has reached the 30-point threshold in three of their four games this season. Justin Jefferson has emerged as a solid replacement for Stefon Diggs and a good complement to Adam Thielen — he has 11 receptions for 278 yards. Minnesota generated 410 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. Delvin Cook has been outstanding this season with two straight 100-yard rushing efforts. He ran the ball 27 times for 130 yards and two touchdowns last week. Cook’s success running the football allowed the Vikings to control the time of possession for 36:31 minutes — and this will be the formula for success tonight to keep Russell Wilson off the field. Minnesota rushed for 162 yards overall against the Texans — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The Vikings are also 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games in October. Seattle looks to become 5-0 on the season for the first time in franchise history. They have passed for at least 275 yards in all four of their games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after passing for at least 275 yards in three straight games. But the bigger concern is their defense that is allowing 476.8 total YPG. The Seahawks are being outgained by -60.5 net YPG this season — it is their +5 net turnover margin that has helped them overcome that disparity. But the turnovers are fickle — and Seattle will not have the services of their star defensive back Jamal Adams for this game as he deals with a groin injury. As it is, the Seahawks have allowed at least 312 passing yards in all four of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 275 passing yards in three straight games. Seattle returns home where they will not have any fans in the stadium — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games. The Seahawks are also just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against fellow AFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Cousins has the reputation of folding under the bright lights of nationally-televised prime-time games — but the numbers do not support that claim for Sunday Night Football. Cousin has led his team to a victory in four of his six starts on a Sunday night. Furthermore, his 320.5 passing YPG average, 73.3% completion percentage, and his 117.3 Passer Rating represent the best marks of all NFL quarterbacks playing on Sunday Night Football. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (475) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (460) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (459). THE SITUATION: Houston (0-4) remained winless last week after their 31-23 upset loss at Minnesota last Sunday despite being a 3.5-point favorite. Jacksonville (1-3) has lost three straight games after their 33-25 loss at Cincinnati last week as a 1-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS: Houston sacked head coach and general manager Bill O’Brien after Sunday’s loss. The speculation is that J.J. Watt’s frustration with O’Brien finally boiled over which resulted in a verbal altercation between the two. When the star players begin to turn on you, then ownership needed to make a move to change the atmosphere. Because Watt demonstrated leadership to take on O’Brien in a move he had to think would cause waves, I expect a big from him and the rest of the team as they rally around each other and interim head coach Romeo Crennel who is universally-liked on the team. At 73-years old, Crennel not only replaces Pete Carroll as the league’s elder statesman at head coach but he will be the oldest head coach in NFL history. As it is, the Texans have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games when staying at home after a loss at home. Houston has also covered the point spread in their last 3 games after an upset loss at home. The biggest problem for this team is their run defense as they rank last in the league by allowing 181.1 rushing YPG. They have allowed all four of their opponents to rush for at least 162 yards this season — but not only have they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yard in two straight games but they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in three straight games. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Jaguars’ defense has issues of their own after allowing the Bengals to rack up 505 yards last week with 205 of those yards coming on the ground. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 30 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards. The Jags will be without cornerback D.J. Hayden who was placed on injured reserve this week with a hamstring injury. Look for Deshaun Watson to have a big game against the inexperienced Jacksonville secondary. The Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road as an underdog. And in their last 9 games in October, Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: Teams that fired their head coach midseason have only covered the point spread twice in these last eight situations — but that limited sample size deserves some context. Often these moves are made later in the season when the team is out of playoff contention and planning their offseason. And often the fired head coach was generally liked and respected — Carolina laid an egg in their first game after Ron Rivera was fired late in the year as they appeared dejected with the move by ownership. I suspect the Houston players have had the Wizard of Oz on loop all week because they think that the “wicked witch is dead.” The Texans won both meetings between these two teams last season so they have to think this is a winnable game if they get back to basics. 25* AFC South Game of the Month with the Houston Texans (460) minus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (459). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (279) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (280). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (0-3) will be playing with desperation tonight after losing their third straight game last Sunday by a 30-26 score despite being a 2.5-point favorite. Green Bay (3-0) is unbeaten so far this season after they upset New Orleans last Sunday night by a 37-30 score on the road as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: Atlanta had a 26-10 lead with 6 1/2 minutes to go in that game before surrendering the final 20 points in that game to lose to the Bears. That collapse came on the heels of them blowing a 39-24 lead with 5 minutes left in the game two weeks ago against the Cowboys in their 40-39 loss. The Falcons may not be able to keep a lead — but they remain competitive. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games as an underdog. Atlanta is moving the ball on offense — they are scoring 30.0 PPG while averaging 419.0 total YPG. They generated 371 yards last week against the Bears — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They should be able to score against this Packers defense that is last in the NFL by allowing 6.6 Yards-Per-Play. Opposing quarterbacks have racked up a Passer Rating of 113.4 which is the 3rd highest in the league. Green Bay is also allowing opposing rushers to average 5.5 Yards-Per-Carry. The Falcons’ biggest problem is their defense that is ravaged with injuries in their secondary. They allowed the Bears to gain 437 yards last week after the Cowboys gained 570 yards against them. Atlanta has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. Moving forward, the Falcons have covered the point spread in 5 straight games on the road. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning three games in a row. The Packers have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games off a game on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points. They will not have the services of their best wide receiver, Davante Adams, who will not play with a hamstring injury despite him participating in practice at the end of the week. Green Bay is dealing with a number of injuries with wide receiver Allan Lazard and linebacker Christian Kirksey out tonight.

FINAL TAKE: Atlanta has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Look for them to keep this game close and perhaps pull the upset. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Special Feature with the Atlanta Falcons (279) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (277) and the San Francisco 49ers (278). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (0-2-1) enters this game coming off a 23-23 tie with Cincinnati where they were 5.5-point favorites. San Francisco (2-1) returns home after winning their two games in the Meadowlands which concluded with their 36-9 win against the Giants last week.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Much has been made of the struggles Carson Wentz is experiencing. He has the lowest Passer Rating of all qualifying quarterbacks in the league. He is completing only 59.8% of his passes which is just 28th of qualifying NFL quarterbacks. He is working behind a depleted offensive line riddled with injuries. Yet despite all this, the Eagles did generate 381 yards last week — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The good news for Wentz is the Miles Sanders has been upgraded to probable to offer him a credible rushing threat that should take some of the pressure off him. The running back has generated 190 rushing yards over his last two games with a crisp 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry average. Last week’s game finished Under the Total —and the Eagles have played 6 straight road games Over the Total after a game that finished Under the Total. And while Philly has yet to cover the point spread this season, they have then played 7 straight games away from home Over the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Philly did hold the Bengals to just 48 rushing yards last week — and they have played 4 straight games Over the Total if they did not allow more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Eagles have played a decisive 41 of their last 61 games on the road Over the Total — and this tightens to them playing 18 of their last 23 road games Over the Total when they are the underdog. San Francisco has played 14 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a win by at least three touchdowns. The 49ers have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Niners held the Jets and the Giants to only 3 and 6 points in the first half in their last two games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after not allowing more than a touchdown in the first half in two straight games. San Francisco is dealing with a long list of injuries — Nick Bosa, Richard Sherman, Dee Ford along with cornerbacks Emmanuel Moseley and Akhello Witherspoon are all out for this game. But the 49ers are getting healthy on offense with tight end George Kittle and wide receiver Deebo Samuel upgraded to probable for this game. QB Jimmy Garoppolo remains out with his ankle injury but backup Nick Mullens has proven himself to be more than capable of operating Kyle Shanahan’s offense at a highly proficient rate. Mullens completed 25 of 36 passes last week for 343 yards without all team’s offensive weapons. The Niners generated 420 yards of offense in that game — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. San Francisco returns home where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Over is 9-3-1 in the 49ers’ last 13 games against fellow NFC opponents — and the Over is also 9-3-1 in their last 13 games when favored. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (277) and the San Francisco 49ers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (101) and the New York Jets (102). THE SITUATION: Denver (0-3) is winless so far this season with their 28-10 loss at home to Tampa Bay on Sunday as a 6-point underdog. New York (0-3) has also lost their first three games this season after their 36-7 loss at Indianapolis on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Broncos have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And with their game with the Buccaneers falling below the 42 point total, they have then played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a game that finished Under the Total. The Denver offense was a work in progress even before being hit hard by the injury bug. Quarterback Drew Lock is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury. Jeff Driskel led an offense that generated only 226 yards last week. He was relieved by Brett Rypien in that game — and after the former undrafted QB out of Boise State completed 8 of 9 passes for 53 yards (and an interception in the end zone), head coach Vic Fangio named him the starter for this game despite it being played on a short week. Wide receiver Cortland Sutton is on the IR with an ACL injury while running back Phillip Lindsay is questionable with his injury. The defense is also riddled with a long list of injuries with Von Miller’s ankle injury that put him on IR being the most significant — but they did receive good news this week with cornerback Bryce Callahan, strong safety Kareem Jackson, and nose tackle Shelby Harris all upgraded to probable and expected to start tonight. The Broncos have allowed 17 and 23 points in the first half of their first two games — but they have then played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after allowing at least 17 points in the first half in two straight games. Denver did hold the Buccaneers to just 68 rushing yards last week — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last contest. And while the Broncos surrendered 353 yards overall to Tampa Bay, the Under is 19-6-1 in their last 26 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Now Denver goes back on the road where the Under is 9-4-1 in the last 14 games. New York has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 35 points in their last contest. And while the Jets allowed the Colts to gain 353 yards last week, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. New York managed only 260 yards of offense last week with third-year quarterback Sam Darnold struggling under Adam Gase’s offense. The Jets are scoring only 12.3 PPG this season while averaging 263.7 total YPG. Injuries have not helped Darnold’s cause with running back Le’Veon Bell and rookie wide receiver Denzel Mims both on Injured Reserve and wide receiver Breshard Perriman out with a shoulder injury. Mims and Perriman were new additions this season to jumpstart the Jets’ offense that was 29th in the league by averaging 194.4 passing YPG and totaling just 17.2 PPG which was second-to-last in the NFL.

FINAL TAKE: New York has played 6 straight games Under the Total when hosting an AFC opponent — and Denver has played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total against fellow teams from the AFC. While the Total is low, this is one of those games where one (or both) of these teams may not reach double-digits. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (101) and the New York Jets (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (490) minus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (489). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (2-0) enters this showdown coming off a 33-16 win at Houston last Sunday as a 7.5-point favorite. Kansas City (2-0) rallied from a 17-6 deficit in the 3rd quarter to defeat the Chargers in Los Angeles in overtime by a 23-20 score as an 8.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Baltimore comes into this game as the top team in the league in point differential with their 38-6 opening week against Cleveland. The Ravens have now won fourteen straight games in the regular season — and the 22 points they have allowed are the fewest in the league going into Week Three. Baltimore should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Ravens have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Baltimore has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in two straight contests. They return home to M&T Bank Stadium where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. Kansas City is showing signs of a Super Bowl hangover — the successful Patrick Mahomes’ rally against the Chargers last week was the fourth time in their last five games where he had to lead his team back from a double-digit deficit. I think the hole they dug themselves in last week is a canary in the coal mine regarding the champs thinking they can turn on and off their switch. This Ravens team is the wrong group to do that against. The Chiefs were outgained by the Charger by 65 yards — and rookie quarterback Justin Herbert led an offense that racked up 479 yards against their defense in his first game as a professional. Not great, Bob. Run defense was one of the liabilities for Kansas City last season in their Super Bowl run — and they are allowing 4.6 Yards-Per-Carry this season which is resulting in 150.4 rushing YPG. They are allowing their opponents a 62% Success Rate in their ground game as well which is 30th in the league. Baltimore is averaging 168 rushing YPG so far this season while averaging 34 rushing attempts per game. The Chiefs are also just 22nd in the NFL in Explosive Play Rate allowed while ranking last in Explosive Pass Play Rate allowed. The tackling for the Kansas City defenders has been shoddy — a product of the lack of a normal preseason along with perhaps some champions’ complacency. These are all bad signs for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss where they failed to cover the point spread — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win by 6 points or less. And in their last 8 games on field turf, the Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has had this game circled all offseason after losing to the Chiefs last year by a 33-28 score on September 22nd — and that was after they lost to them in December of 2018 against Mahomes by a 27-24 score in overtime. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Baltimore Ravens (490) minus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (489). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (488) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (487). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (1-1) looks to rebound from their 34-24 upset loss in Las Vegas against the Raiders on Monday as a 4-point favorite. Green Bay (2-0) has started the season unbeaten after defeating the Lions at home in Lambeau Field last week by a 42-21 score as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Sean Payton was livid with his team after they committed ten penalties accounting for 129 yards with five of those penalties accounting for first downs for the Raiders. The Saints are the most-penalized team in the league with 248 penalty yards after two games. Payton kept his team in Vegas overnight to discuss the mistakes his team has been making. Expect this team to come out on fire. As it is, they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. New Orleans has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 38 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Drew Brees is getting plenty of criticism this week for not throwing the ball downfield. Is he losing arm strength? Yeah, probably — but that is probably an overrated quality (at least, Brett Favre and Phill Simms say so). Certainly Brees misses wide receiver Michael Thomas who will be out for this game with his ankle injury. But even without Thomas last week, Brees led an offense that averaged 7.44 Yards-Per-Play — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after averaging at least 6.5 Yards-Per-Play in their last contest. The problem for New Orleans besides the penalties — or, another result of the penalties that kept FIVE drives alive — was that they only had the ball for 23:42 minutes in that game. The Saints gained 424 yards on Monday — and they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. They also have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. The short week should not be a problem as they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games when playing with six days or less of rest. And in their last 41 games against teams with a winning record, New Orleans is 27-13-1 ATS. Before we crown the Packers the Super Bowl Championship for scoring 85 points in their first two games, lets remember that they did this against an injured Detroit defense and a Minnesota defense that lost five starters from last year’s team. Remember, Green Bay was outgained last season by their opponents but made it to the NFC Championship Game because they were 9-1 in one-possession games. They were closer to an 8-8/9-7 team, in practice, that a 13-3 team. The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. Additionally, they are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Green Bay has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers may be without Rodgers’ favorite target in Davante Adams after he injured his hamstring which kept him out of the second half last week against the Lions. Adams is going to try to play it looks like (and he is my fantasy line up tonight for Guinea Pig Nation) — but I am not optimistic. But Green Bay has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings with the Saints. 25* NFC Game of the Month with the New Orleans Saints (488) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (487). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (462) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (461). THE SITUATION: New England (1-1) looks to bounce back from their heartbreaking 35-30 loss at Seattle last Sunday night as a 4.5-point underdog where they failed to convert on the goal-line on the final play of the game that would have given them the victory. Las Vegas (2-0) comes off a triumphant 34-24 upset victory at home on Monday Night Football against New Orleans as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raiders earned an emotional win in their debut in their new Allegiant Stadium (down the road from the Hollywood Sports office) — but they now find themselves in a letdown situation after their perfect 2-0 start to the season. On a short week, Las Vegas has to make their second trip out east in three weeks to play at a 1 PM ET start — during a pandemic! — with the old 10 AM PT body clock problem. As it is, the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 28 games after an upset victory as a home underdog. Las Vegas has also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win at home. The Raiders did generate 377 yards of offense against the Saints defense — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. But the bigger concern is that they were outgained by -47 net yards with New Orleans generating 424 yards despite only having the football for less than 24 minutes in that game. The Saints also gifted the Raiders 129 yards from their ten penalties with five of them directly producing first downs. New Orleans averaged a whopping 7.44 Yards-Per-Play on Monday. They are allowing 6.54 YPP after two games. They are also just 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. New England should respond with a strong effort as they are 48-23-1 ATS in their last 72 games after a straight-up loss in the Bill Belichick era. The Patriots’ offense looks fantastic under the direction of (a completely healthy again) Cam Newton. After rushing the ball 15 times for 75 yards with two touchdowns in the opening week, he torched the Seahawks for 397 passing yards by completing 30 of 44 passes — and he added another 44 yards on the ground with two more rushing scores. These are all great signs for Belichick whose teams have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 42 games after scoring at least 30 points. New England outgained Seattle by a 464-429 margin despite losing on the scoreboard. The Patriots are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game. New England needs to tighten things up on defense — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 30 points and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after allowing at least 35 points in their last game. Belichick is the best in the business in having his defense take away the opposing offenses’ best weapon — so that means plenty of attention Raiders’ tight end Darren Waller who caught 12 passes for 103 yards on Monday. Las Vegas receiving corps drops off after Waller and first-round draft pick Henry Ruggs III is still dealing with an injury. The Patriots return home where they are a decisive 43-21-3 ATS in their last 67 games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games with the total set at 45.5 or higher.

FINAL TAKE: The Raiders have been a great early story to the season — but they remain a team that averaged only 15 PPG over their final seven games while never topping 24 points so I am not completely sold that this is now a 30 PPG scoring attack despite scoring 68 points so far this season. This is also a team that got blown out by a 42-21 score to Tennessee, a 40-9 score at Kansas City, and a 34-3 score in New York to the Jets (!) in the final six weeks of the season. 25* NFL Blowout Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (462) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (461). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (301) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (302). THE SITUATION: Miami (0-2) is winless in their first two games of the season after their 31-28 loss at home to Buffalo last Sunday as a 5.5-point underdog. Jacksonville (1-1) comes off a 33-30 loss at Tennessee as a 7-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: There sure is a lot of love all of the sudden for this Jaguars’ team that was considered to be “tankin’ for Trevor” to get the opportunity to draft Trevor Lawrence as their franchise quarterback. But second-year QB Gardner Minshew is completing 75.4% of his passes with six touchdown passes and undrafted rookie running back James Robinson has emerged with 164 rushing yards to make their supporters understand why they released Leonard Fournette in training camp. Yet Jacksonville has still failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to an AFC South rival. And while Minshew threw for 339 yards against the Titans defense, the Jaguars have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after passing for at least 300 yards in their last game. Keep in mind that it was Minshew’s two interceptions on Sunday that helped the Titans overcome being outgained by a 480 to 354 yardage margin to the Jaguars. Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 43 of their last 69 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least 100 yards. Minshew may be without one of his top targets in wide receiver D.J. Chark who is listed as questionable with a chest injury. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home game when favored. And not only have the Jaguars failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 30 points but they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games after surrendering at least 30 points. Miami has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and the have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread setback. The Dolphins have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spread as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing two straight contests to AFC East rivals. In head coach Brian Flores I trust to get this team focused on a short week. Remember, this team was supposedly “tankin’ for Tua” last year before they rallied from an 0-7 start to the season by then winning five of their last nine games. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is inconsistent but it was the good version of him on Sunday as he completed 31 of 47 passes against an outstanding Bills defense for 328 passing yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. Getting wide receiver DeVante Parker healthy and back on the field is a big help for Fitzmagic — Parker has 78 catches for 1227 receiving yards with 10 touchdown passes in his last sixteen games. The Dolphins generated 410 yards of offense last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Miami has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: There is inherent value with the underdog in this one — and the Dolphins have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as the dog. Miami has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Jacksonville has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month is on the Miami Dolphins (301) plus the points versus the Jacksonville Jaguars (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (289) and the Las Vegas Raiders (290). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (1-0) enters this game coming off a 34-23 win at home to Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 4-point favorite. Las Vegas (1-0) comes off a 34-30 win at Carolina where they were 3-point favorites.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The final score for the Saints was a bit deceiving with one of their touchdowns being score from a 36-yard interception. New Orleans had a +3 net turnover margin — but they managed to generate only 271 yards of offense. The Saints averaged just 4.1 Yards-Per-Play against the Buccaneers which was the 2nd lowest average of all teams in Week One. Quarterback Drew Brees completed just 18 of his 30 passes for only 160 yards. His adjusted completion percentage was just 24th best in the league last week after missing a handful of open receivers. Maybe it was just one bad week without the benefit of preseason — or maybe Father Time is beginning to catch up with the 41-year old. Brees will not have the benefit of his favorite target in Michael Thomas who is out with an ankle injury. The Saints did add wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders in the offseason — and I expect them to use running back Alvin Kamara as a slot receiver in passing downs — but this is an offensive not at full strength without their best weapon in the passing attack. Thomas caught a whopping 149 catches last year for 1725 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. As it is, New Orleans has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win over an NFC South rival. Additionally, the Saints have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after playing a game that went Over the Total. Furthermore, New Orleans has played 5 of their last 8 road games Over the Total as a favorite of no more than 7 points — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total with the total set at 45.5 or higher. And in their last 5 second games to a new season, the Saints have played 4 of these games Under the Total. The Under is 10-4-1 in Las Vegas’ last 15 games after a straight-up win. The Raiders have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined goals were scored. Las Vegas did not score more than 24 points in each of their final games last season — and they averaged just 15 PPG over that stretch. QB Derek Carr lacked a credible deep threat all season — that was supposed to be the role Antonio Brown would have assumed. The team drafted Alabama speedster Henry Ruggs with their 1st round pick to address this need — and he was targeted five times with three catches for 55 yards in the first half. Ruggs is listed as questionable to play but he will take the field tonight — however, it is unclear how effective he will be as he nurses the knee injury that kept home out of the second half last week. Las Vegas will rely on running back Josh Jacobs for this game — but the Saints have not allowed a 100-yard rusher in forty-four straight games. The Raiders did allow 260 passing yards last week — but the Under is 12-5-1 in their last 18 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Las Vegas had played their last four appearances representing Oakland Under the Total when playing on Monday Night Football. Gruden’s teams have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total when playing in the first two weeks of the season including playing four of five Unders as the coach of the Raiders. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (289) and the Las Vegas Raiders (290). Best of luck for  us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (287) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (288). THE SITUATION: New England (1-0) won their opening game of the season last week with their 21-11 win over Miami as a 7-point favorite. Seattle (1-0) also won their debut to the 2020 season with their 38-25 victory over Atlanta where they closed as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: New England should build off their momentum from last week as they are 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 games after a point spread win. The new-look Cam Newton run offense was clicking on all cylinders last week as they generated 357 total yards of offense on the strength of 202 rushing yards on 42 rushing attempts. The analytics folks tend to dismiss time of possession — perhaps that is one of the reasons they tend to replicate coin flips when making ATS prognostications? I assign plenty of value to the Patriots’ controlling the clock for 34:49 minutes last week. Not only does that keep the opposing offense off the field, but it keeps your own defense relatively fresh with one or two fewer defensive possessions they have to play in the game. That makes a big deal when coaching-up younger players. It is telling that New England is 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they are also an impressive 42-20-2 ATS in their last 64 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Cam Newton looked like a young man fully-healthy again with the mental reset of playing in a new environment. Don’t underestimate how much injuries have slowed him down since his Super Bowl run with Carolina a few years ago. Newton was an efficient 15 of 19 for 155 yards while averaging 8.2 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt last week. He also ran the ball 15 times for 75 yards with two touchdowns. When he is healthy, he is simply money in short-yardage situations. And don’t sleep on the New England defense despite losing a handful of players who opted-out this season. The Patriots’ secondary remains elite led by cornerback Stephon Gilmour. The front-seven is a work-in-progress which is why controlling possession is so important. New England limited the Dolphins to just 169 yards of offense last week while averaging a mere 4.6 Yards-Per-Play — and they forced three turnovers. Since the start of 2019, the Patriots lead the NFL in these defensive categories still: allowing 13.9 PPG; allowing only 275.5 total YPG; 28 interceptions; opponent Passer Rating of 61.7. New England has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. It is not often that Belichick-coached teams are underdogs — and New England is 34-15-3 ATS in their last 52 games when getting the points. Seattle defeated the (now 0-2) Falcons last week despite being outgained by -123 net yards in that game. The Seahawks surrendered a troubling 506 yards to Atlanta in that game. Seattle has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win. The defense improved significantly with the acquisition of Jamal Adams — but this team remains suspect with both their offensive and defensive lines. The Seahawks are just 3-7-1 ATS in the last 11 games in September.

FINAL TAKE: Seattle has the reputation for having a strong home-field advantage — but they will be without their “twelfth man advantage” with no fans in the crowd raising the decibel levels. As it is, the Seahawks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home. 25* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (287) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (272) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (271). THE SITUATION: Miami (0-1) looks to bounce-back from a 21-11 loss at New England as a 7-point underdog last Sunday. Buffalo (1-0) comes off a 27-17 win at home against the New York Jets as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami struggled to generate offense against the tough Patriots defense — they managed only 169 yards of offense last week. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick struggled with three interceptions last week. But Fitzmagic has a nice track record when facing the Bills. In his last four games against Buffalo, Fitzpatrick is averaging 297.3 passing YPG while completing 68.8% of his passes with four touchdown passes and just one interception while posting a Passer Rating of 100.1. Head coach Brian Flores usually gets every ounce of talent from his roster — and he should have his team play hard this afternoon. The Dolphins have rebounded to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a loss on the road. Miami has also been a dangerous underdog under Flores as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games when getting the points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as the underdog. Additionally, the Dolphins should have a home edge with the Bills traveling to muggy South Beach. Miami has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games after a win at home against an AFC East rival. The Bills have also failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 30 games after a double-digit win over a divisional foe. Buffalo has sky-high expectations this season with New England perhaps taking a step back in the post-Tom Brady era. But the Bills are loaded with injuries — especially at linebacker with starters Matt Milano and stud Tremaine Edmunds out for this game. That is not a good sign for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has won the last three meetings between these two teams after sweeping both games last year. The Bills won in South Beach in the most recent encounter on November 17th by a 37-20 score as a 7-point favorite. Flores probably had Buffalo as his number one work priority in the offseason — and in Flores I trust. 25* AFC East Game of the Month with the Miami Dolphins (272) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bills (271). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (481) and the Denver Broncos (482). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (0-0) takes the field again after a 9-7 campaign that ended by losing at Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game. Denver (0-0) comes off a 7-9 season last year.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Titans will have revenge on their mind after getting shutout in Denver back on October 13th by a 16-0 score. That was the final straw for head coach Mike Vrabel who benched starting quarterback Marcus Mariota in that game. Ryan Tannehill came on to complete 13 of 16 passes in relief with that effort being enough to earn him the starting job that he then ran away with for the rest of the season. Tennessee won nine of their last thirteen games while leading the team one win away from the Super Bowl. Tannehill completed 67.9% of his passes while throwing 27 touchdown passes to just six interceptions. Tannehill opened up the vertical threats for this team as he completed 9.0 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. But what defined success for Tannehill was his ability to operate in play-action. Tannehill sells the fake hand-off with the Titans using the play-action decoy to Derrick Henry (and the other running backs) 77.1% of the time with Tannehill under center. Tannehill generated a Passer Rating of 140.6 in the playoffs in play-action which was the best of all quarterbacks in the postseason. He will face a depleted Broncos’ pass rush that will be without Von Miller who went on IR with an ankle injury. Bradley Chubb will be on a pitch count as well with him dealing with an injured ACL. The lack of a pass rush will likely have Tannehill licking his chops. He completed 72.9% of his passes with a clean pocket with 21 touchdowns and just four interceptions while averaging 9.63 YPA — and his 122.6 Passer Rating from a clean pocket led the NFL last season. Tennessee should come out very motivated to avenge being shutout last year — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in the opening week of a new season. This team averaged 24.1 PPG last season — and they also averaged 24.9 PPG on the road last season along with posting a 350.8 total YPG mark. The Titans have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against AFC opponents. Furthermore, Tennessee has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total as a favorite — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total when laying the points. Denver has played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total in September — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total in the opening week of a new season. The Broncos are excited about the potential of their offense this season in the second season of quarterback Drew Lock. The former Missouri Tiger won four of his five starts to end the season last year. The organization hired Pat Shurmer to be the offensive coordinator after he became available when he was let go as the New York Giants’ head coach. The team also surrounded Lock with more weapons by signing running back Melvin Gordon from the Chargers and drafting Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler. The Broncos need to improve their 18.8 PPG scoring average at home last season. Denver held their guests to just 17.9 PPG but that is a number that looks destined for regression given the attrition that the unit has endured. Not only is Miller out but they also lost defensive back Chris Harris, Jr. to a middling unit in production as they were just 14th against the pass and 15th against the run. Frankly, their defensive scoring average was somewhat the product of a defensive head coach in Vic Fangio who ran the ball to burn time off the clock to shorten the game and rest his defense. If and when the Broncos fall behind in this game, then Denver will have to abandon the run game.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has played 4 straight games Over the Total on Monday Night Football. Expect Tannehill to have a good game which will force the Broncos to lean on Lock to win this game — and that is a recipe for an Over with the Total set in the low-40s. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (481) and the Denver Broncos (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (477) and the Los Angeles Rams (478). THE SITUATION: Dallas (0-0) begins the new era of head coach Mike McCarthy tonight as he replaces Jason Garrett after his ten-year tenure ended with the Cowboys’ 8-8 finish last season. Los Angeles (0-0) looks to get back to the playoffs after missing the postseason last year despite their 9-7 record.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: McCarthy kept Kellen Moore as the offensive coordinator while deferring to him to continue to call plays for quarterback Dak Prescott. But the stout offensive line that Prescott has enjoyed over the years is not as strong. Five-time Pro Bowl center Travis Frederick returned in the offseason while their elite right tackle, La’El Collins, is beginning the year on the IR with a hip injury. The depth of the Cowboys will now be tested with Joe Looney taking over at center after playing in just five snaps last season while the poorly graded Cameron Erving becomes their best option at right tackle. Red zone offense was a problem for the Dallas offense when they were playing on the road last season. They averaged 388.4 total YPG away from home but that only translated into 22.1 PPG. The Cowboys’ offense may also struggle without the benefit of the preseason to implement the new principles that McCarthy wants to bring to the offense. As it is, Dallas has played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total in September. Additionally, the Cowboys have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total as an underdog (which they now are after the line movement earlier in the day) — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games on the road Under the Total when the underdog. Dallas does have a new defensive coordinator in Mike Nolan — and I think the veteran has a lot to offer the Cowboys. Dallas only allowed 20.4 PPG on the road last year along with just 322.6 total YPG. The Cowboys have also played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Los Angeles has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. The Rams have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when favored — and this includes them playing four of their last five games Under the Total when favored at home. The LA defense improved significantly midseason after the acquisition of cornerback Jalen Ramsey from Jacksonville. For the season, the Rams allowed only 339.6 total YPG. I have heard some pundits comment about how tough head coach Sean McVay is early in the season after the benefit of the offseason to devise new plays and offensive strategies. Yet Los Angeles has played 31 of their last 51 games Under the Total in the opening two weeks of the season including playing three of their last four opening two games Under the Total in the last two seasons. The Rams have also played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. LA will have the benefit of surprise on defense with new defensive coordinator Joe Staley calling the defense — and Dallas does not have the benefit of even vanilla game-tape from exhibition games to get a sense of what changes he will implement.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on December 15th where the Cowboys pulled a 44-21 upset win as a 1-point underdog with the final score flying over the 48 point total. Dallas ran the ball 36 times for 248 yards and three touchdowns — but their two highest-graded offensive linemen from that game were Fredericks and Collins who will not be on the field tonight. The Cowboys will likely stick with their commitment to the run with Ezekiel Elliott but expect this rematch to be a much lower-scoring game. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (477) and the Los Angeles Rams (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (102) minus the point(s) versus the San Francisco 49ers (101). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-4) has won eight straight games with their 35-24 victory over Tennessee on January 19th in the AFC Conference Championship Game as a 7.5-point favorite. San Francisco (15-3) joined them in the Super Bowl later that day with their 37-20 victory over Green Bay as an 8-point favorite. The Super Bowl will be played on a neutral field in Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Frankly, I began to consider Kansas City a team of destiny when they rallied from their 24-0 deficit to Houston to win that game by a 51-31 score in the AFC Divisional Playoffs. With New England losing to the Titans that weekend, it just looked like the seas were beginning to part for head coach Andy Reid to finally win his first Super Bowl after long being considered one of the dean’s of NFL coaches. Reid has led his teams to victory in twenty-one of their last twenty-four games after a bye week with his teams also posting a 19-9 ATS record after a bye week in his coaching career. After everything went as I expected in both Conference Championship Games, I was prepared to officially endorse the Chiefs in this game — but I decided to wait to watch the line movement for a few days while also clearing my head to help ensure I was not succumbing to confirmation bias. The best argument for the San Francisco side of the equation relates to the success of underdogs in the Super Bowl coming in with the better defense. So I looked at the Chiefs record against Top-Ten defenses (as decided by the weighted DVOA metric at Football Outsiders). Kansas City faced three top-seven defenses this season: at New England (#4th in DVOA weighted defense); home to Minnesota (#7th in DVOA weighted defense); home to Baltimore (#2nd in DVOA weighted defense). The Chiefs won all three games with the average score being 27.3-22.3. Furthermore, Kansas City averaged 408.7 YPG in those three games with 288 of those yards coming in the air at a 7.71 Yards-Per-Attempt clip — and those numbers compare pretty favorably to their 29.8 PPG, 383.4 total YPG and 283 passing YPG at a 7.9 YPA season average entering this game. The most telling game seems to be the Chiefs’ 33-28 win against the Ravens since the Baltimore team’s physical presence along with their emphasis on a power rushing attack is similar to the San Francisco formula for success. I then looked at how Kansas City performed against Top-Ten rushing attacks (as defined by DVOA). The Chiefs had five games against Top-Eight rushing offenses according to DVOA. I threw out the loss to Green Bay since that was one of the two games that Patrick Mahomes missed due to injury. Kansas City was 2-2 in those other four games as they defeated the Ravens while losing to Indianapolis and splitting two games with the Titans. The average score in those two games was 28.3 to 26.8 in favor of the Chiefs. And while they allowed 173.3 rushing YPG in those four contests with opposing rushers averaging 5.5 Yards-Per-Carry, that did not stop the Mahomes-led offense to average 440.3 total YPG (almost 60 YPG above their season average). With those past results, I am unpersuaded that the elite 49ers defense nor their ability to effectively run the football will significantly slow down Mahomes and this powerful KC offense. It is hard to then ignore that the Chiefs have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning at least two in a row by double-digits. Kansas City has also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game including those last four situations. San Francisco is riding high after their easy win over the Packers where they raced out to a 24-0 halftime lead. But the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by at least two touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 35 of their last 54 road games after a victory by at least 14 points. Furthermore, San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. The red flag regarding the outstanding 49ers’ defense is they have tended to struggle against mobile quarterbacks. In looking at their four games against NFC West rivals Seattle and Arizona with Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray along with their game against Baltimore with Lamar Jackson, San Francisco did win just three of those games with the average scoring being 26.2-23.8 (and while that is still a winning margin, it is -9.9 net PPG plummet from their +12.3 PPG net differential for the season). The Niners held the offenses in those five games to 318 YPG which is still very low — but it is also +39 YPG more than their season average. Those quarterbacks completed 67.5% of their 154 combined passes in those games while averaging 192.0 passing YPG which was +22.8 passing YPG above their season average. Perhaps most importantly for this game, the quarterbacks ran for a combined 284 yards in those five games on 43 carries for 6.6 Yards-Per-Carry average while adding 56.8 rushing YPG. What is critical about these rushing numbers is that they are more likely to occur on 3rd and 4th downs and/or in the Red Zone. Mahomes is usually frugal when deciding to run the football — but he did average 15.6 rushing YPG this season on 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry. This is an area where he may take advantage of the Niners’ outstanding four-man rush. Mahomes will likely also pick on 49ers’ cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon who Pro Football Focus ranks as the 50th of the 95 cornerbacks who had at least 300 snaps this season. Witherspoon has wilted at times this season when his confidence gets shaken while struggling in the Red Zone — and this Chiefs’ offense is loaded with weapons that will preclude the Niners from hiding Witherspoon. The Niners did bench Witherspoon in the playoffs for undrafted free agent Emmanuel Moseley — but at 5’11 and 190-lbs, he is a matchup nightmare against the 6’5 and 260-lb Travis Kelce even if his player was an improvement over Witherspoon. Kansas City is 5th in the NFL by averaging 281.1 passing YPG — and the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after eight games into the season against teams who average at least 260 passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Once I concluded that the San Francisco defense is not likely to slow down Mahomes and this Chiefs’ offense, the edge Kansas City has at quarterback will likely be the difference. Jimmy Garoppolo is a fine QB who has executed quite well on 3rd down and deserves tons of credit for outdueling Drew Brees in the Niners’ 48-46 win in New Orleans. But Garoppolo is still a bit inexperienced in big games when compared to Mahomes who was winning a coin flip away from winning the AFC Championship Game in overtime last year against the Patriots from reaching the Super Bowl. There are also some throws that Garoppolo struggles with as he continues to develop. While it doesn’t mean everything, it does something that head coach Kyle Shanahan asked Garoppolo to throw the ball only 14 times after his bad interception in the NFC Divisional Playoff round game against Minnesota. Frankly, probably every QB in the NFL right now is at a disadvantage to Mahomes. KC also has a decided edge in Special Teams in this game. With the point spread closer to pick ‘em than the hook, look for Superman Mahomes to fulfill what seems to be his destiny while finally codifying Reid in the pantheon of the elite head coaches in NFL history. 25* NFL Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (102) minus the point(s) versus the San Francisco 49ers (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the San Francisco 49ers (101) and the Kansas City Chiefs (102). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (15-3) joined them in the Super Bowl later that day with their 37-20 victory over Green Bay as an 8-point favorite. Kansas City (14-4) has won eight straight games with their 35-24 victory over Tennessee on January 19th in the AFC Conference Championship Game as a 7.5-point favorite. The Super Bowl will be played on a neutral field in Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The adage is that matchups make prizefights — and I say that matchups also go a long way in assessing whether a game will go Over or Under the Total. Both these teams had Top-Eight scoring offenses and defenses in the regular season. I think it will be the offenses that have the edge for both teams in what should push into a higher scoring game. The Chiefs enter the Super Bowl averaging 283 passing YPG — and the 49ers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who average at least 230 passing YPG. Kansas City also allows their opponents to average 351.7 total YPG in their eighteen games this season — and San Francisco has played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against opponents who allow at least 350 YPG. The weakness of this Chiefs defense is against the run — even after their seeming improvement over the last eight games of the season, Kansas City ranked 27th in the NFL over that span in Expected Points Allowed per rushing attempt faced. The Chiefs allowed 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry this season — and the Niners have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams that allowed their opponents to average 4.5 or more YPC. San Francisco has scored 64 combined points in their two playoff games — and they have then played 30 of their last 45 games on the road Over the Total after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. The 49ers have also played 13 of their last 16 games on the road Over the Total when playing with two weeks of rest and preparation. Kansas City has scored at least 26 points in four straight games — and they have played 6 straight games on the road Over the Total after scoring at least 25 points in four straight games. And while the Chiefs have scored 21 and 28 points in the first half of their last two games, they have then played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after scoring at least 17 points in the first half in two straight contests. Kansas City has won their last five games all by at least 10 points — and they have then played 6 straight games Over the Total after winning at least two straight games by at least 10 points. They are averaging 29.8 PPG when accounting for their two playoff games — but the 49ers best that with their 30.2 PPG scoring average after their two playoff victories. The Chiefs have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total against teams who score at least 24 PPG. And while the Niners average 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry in their rushing attack, Kansas City has played 7 straight games Over the Total in the second half of the season against teams who average at least 4.5 YPC.

FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams who are winning at least 75% of their games. San Francisco has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. The winner of this game likely scores at least 30 points with both teams likely score at least 24 points one way or another. 25* NFL Total of the Year with Over the Total in the Super Bowl between the San Francisco 49ers (101) and the Kansas City Chiefs (102). Best of luck for us — Frank (and to get my Super Bowl Props Betting Report for my top three prop bets, follow me on Twitter and contact me for this Report as a free courtesy: @FrankSawyer_HS ).

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (312) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (311). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (14-3) has won three straight games after they dispatched of Minnesota last week by a 27-10 score as a 7-point favorite. Green Bay (14-3) has won six straight games with their 28-23 win over Seattle last week as a 4.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning at least three games in a row. This Green Bay team has been difficult to figure out when considering that they are being outgained this season. The Packers have seen ten of their opponents win the yardage battle against them which is a hard way to win fourteen of one’s seventeen games. The football analytics community is well behind other sports (most notably, basketball) in appreciating that, while winning or losing close games often is a function of luck (or, better phrased: coin flip situations that can go either way that then have a disproportionate impact on the outcome of the game), there are attributes that help teams win close games. Free throw proficiency helps teams win close games in basketball. Outstanding quarterback play helps teams win close games in football. Aaron Rodgers may have seen his productivity decline since 2016 — but he is still very good in crunch time (and he avoids negative plays like interceptions). So, having said all that regarding my appreciation for this Packers’ team, this is a bad matchup for them. San Francisco controls the clock on offense for 32:01 minutes per game — and Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams who average at least 32 minutes per game on offense. The Niners are 2nd in the NFL by averaging 29.9 PPG — and the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in the second half of the season against teams who score at least 24 PPG. And while the San Francisco defense holds their opponents to just 5.2 Passing Yards-Per-Attempt, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams who do not allow more than 5.2 YPA in the passing game after eight games into the season. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win at home. The 49ers have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. The San Francisco defense flexed their muscles in that game by holding the Vikings to just 147 total yards. The 49ers have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 200 yards in their last contest. And while their game last week finished well below the 44.5 point total, San Francisco has then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The Niners defense ranks 2nd in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 281.8 total YPG — and this unit has been fortified with the return of Kwon Alexander and Dee Ford from injuries. The 49ers get to host this game in Levi Stadium where they are 7-2 this season with an average winning margin of +13.2 PPG. San Francisco has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The 49ers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Green Bay is looking to avenge a 37-8 loss at San Francisco back on November 24th. A concern with this Packers team is that they are soft on the offensive and defensive line — and the physical 49ers were able to expose that vulnerability. Maybe (probably). I am persuaded with Green Bay failing to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when attempting to avenge a loss where they surrendered at least 28 points — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from a loss by at least four touchdowns. 25* NFC Game of the Year with the San Francisco 49ers (312) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (313) and the Kansas City Chiefs (314). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (11-7) comes off a 28-12 upset win at Baltimore as a 10-point underdog. Kansas City (13-4) rallied from a 24-0 deficit last Sunday to crush Houston by a 51-31 score.

THE SITUATION: The Titans have won three straight games — and they have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. Tennessee has not allowed more than 14 points in those three victories — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in three straight games. The Titans defeating the Ravens last week despite surrounding 530 yards of offense. Tennessee allowed 6.02 Yards-Per-Play to Baltimore while giving up 345 passing yards. The Titans have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after giving up at least 6.0 YPP. Now the Titans go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. The Tennessee defense is perhaps not as good as advertised as they rank 21st in the NFL by allowing 359.5 total YPG. They also surrender 255.0 passing YPG which is 24th in the league — and that is not a good sign when facing this Chiefs offense led by Patrick Mahomes which is 5th in the NFL by averaging 281.1 passing YPG. Kansas City has won seven straight games — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. The Chiefs generated 434 yards against the Texans last week — and they have then played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. Kansas City has covered the point spread in all seven of their victories on their hot streak — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning at least three straight games while covering those games as the favorite. The Chiefs host this game where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total. Kansas City has also played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road — and thy have played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total with the number set at 49.5 or higher. Furthermore, the Chiefs have played 10 of their last 13 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. And while the Chiefs allow 350 YPG this season, the Titans have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against opponents who allow at least 350 YPG. Look for Kansas City to exceed the 29.4 PPG scoring average they manage when playing at home with Tennessee playing catch-up and scoring in the 20s. 25* AFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (313) and the Kansas City Chiefs (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (307) and the Green Bay Packers (308). THE SITUATION: Seattle (12-5) snapped their two-game losing streak last Sunday with their 17-9 victory at Philadelphia as a 1-point underdog. Green Bay (13-3) takes the field again on a five-game winning streak after their 23-20 win at Detroit back on December 29th as a 13.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Seahawks have played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Of course, the outcome of their game last week changes dramatically if Eagles’ quarterback Carson Wentz does not get concussed by Jadeveon Clowney early in that contest. Wentz threw only four passes for 3 yards before that late hit before giving way to the game but overmatched Josh McCown who began the season coaching high school football. This Seattle defense is 26th in the NFL by allowing 381.6 total YPG. The Seahawks stay on the road for this game where they have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total. Seattle has also played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total on the road against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the Over is 7-2-1 in the Seahawks’ last 10 games as an underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total in the playoffs as an underdog. Green Bay has played 11 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win on the road by a field goal or less. They have also played 25 of their last 37 games Over the Total after winning five games in a row. The Packers went into the locker room trailing by a 17-3 score — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not scoring more than 3 points in the first half in their last game. They did end up gaining 432 yards in that game with Aaron Rodgers completing 27 of 55 passes for 323 yards. Green Bay has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after passing for at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after attempting at least 50 passes in their last contest. The Under may be tempting for many bettors with the Packers having played four straight Unders. But Green Bay has played a decisive 52 of their last 83 games Over the Total after playing at least two straight Unders — and they have played 20 of their last 29 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Unders. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing at least four straight Unders.

FINAL TAKE: The Packers have played 7 of their last 10 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 7 points. The Seahawks have seen the Over go 7-2-1 in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. A final word on the weather: the temperature will be in the mid-20s with snow possible in the second half of the game. These are two cold weather teams — with the Total just in the mid-20s, I don’t think the weather changes this game going over the number. 25* NFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Seattle Seahawks (307) and the Green Bay Packers (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (306) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (305). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (12-4) ended the regular season winning six straight games with their 31-21 victory at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 10-point favorite. Houston (11-6) has won three of their last four contests with their 22-19 win over Buffalo in overtime last Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas City is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. The Chiefs have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They should build off the momentum of their six-game winning streak as they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a double-digit victory — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit win against a divisional rival. And in their last 7 games after a home win against an AFC West foe, Kansas City has covered the point spread 6 times. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has not had as spectacular a fantasy season this year — but he still leads a potent offense that is 5th in the NFL by scoring 28.2 PPG while leading a passing attack that is also 5th in the league by averaging 281.5 passing YPG (despite their dynamic wide receiver, Tyreek Hill, missing some games). But the impressive aspect of this Chiefs’ team is the bump in the play of defensive coordinator’s Steve Spagnuolo unit in the second year in his system which has become commonplace after similar results occurred at his previous spots (including with a Super Bowl-winning NY Giants team). Kansas City has held its last six opponents to just 11.5 PPG — and their last three opponents have scored only 9.0 PPG while averaging just 283.7 total YPG. The Chiefs ended the season 8th in the NFL in opponent’s Expected Points Added per play and 7th in opponent’s EPA on pass plays. Kansas City now retains big situational advantages getting an extra week to rest and prepare while staying at home for three weeks. Head coach Andy Ryan has seen his teams cover the point spread in 18 of their 27 games coming off a bye week in his career. The Chiefs are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games at home. And in their last 10 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points, Kansas City has covered the point spread in 7 of these games. Houston may be due for a letdown as they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Frankly, this is a team that has been carried by Deshaun Watson who is frequently asked to overcome a shaky defense and a head coach in Bill O’Brien who does not always put his team in the best position to succeed given his tactical decisions. The Texans are being outscored this season by -0.5 PPG. They are also being outgained by -26.3 YPG — and this gets worse on the road where they have been outgained by -48.0 net YPG when playing on the road. Houston’s defense is below average as they allow 388.3 total YPG which is 28th in the league — and they have surrendered 442.3 total YPG over their last three contests. The Texans have spent much of the season trailing in their games which is very strange for a team that won eleven games in the regular season. And this Houston team has been outscored by a 34-0 score in the first half of their last two playoff games under O’Brien’s command after going into halftime last week at home by a 13-0 score to the Bills. Mahomes will punish this Texans team if they continue to be that anemic in the first half of this one. Now after playing their last two games at home, Houston goes on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the October 13th encounter between these two teams in Arrowhead Stadium as well where the Texans pulled off a 31-24 upset victory as a 3.5-point underdog. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging a loss decided by a touchdown or less — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with same-season revenge from an upset loss. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (306) minus the points versus the Houston Texans (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (303) and the Baltimore Ravens (304). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (10-7) has won their last two games after their 20-13 upset victory at New England as a 4.5-point underdog last Saturday. Baltimore (14-2) has won twelve games in a row with their 28-10 upset win at Pittsburgh to end the regular season as a 2-point underdog back on December 29th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Baltimore was an underdog in that game with the Steelers since they rested key players including quarterback Lamar Jackson. The Ravens still scored four touchdowns with Robert Griffin III under center against a good Pittsburgh defense that needed a win along with a Titans loss to reach the playoffs. Baltimore has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a double-digit win at home. So here comes a rested Jackson along with Mark Ingram whose injured calf is improving late this week who lead an offense that leads the NFL by scoring 33.2 PPG while ranking 2nd in the league by averaging 407.6 total YPG. What makes this Ravens’ offense so difficult to stop is their ability to play in “13” personnel with one running back and three tight ends who can all catch the ball. While the formation helps a heavy rushing attack, all three of those tight ends can catch the ball while offering Jackson a huge target down the field. Jackson faces a Titans’ defense that ranks 24th in the NFL by allowing 255.0 passing YPG. Baltimore also boasts the NFL’s top rushing attack that averages 206.0 rushing YPG. The Ravens have rushed for at least 218 yards in three straight games — and they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in two straight contests. What may score some bettors off the Over is the outstanding defense that Baltimore plays. They limited the Steelers to just 168 total yards on a mere 3.5 Yards-Per-Play average — but they have then played 4 straight games Over the Total after not allowing their last opponent to average more than 3.5 YPP. And while the Ravens have allowed only 25 combined points in their last two games, they have then played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. Tennessee has played 13 of their last 17 road games Over the Total after an upset victory on the road as an underdog. Derrick Henry battered the Patriots last week as he led a ground game that generated 201 rushing yards — and the Titans have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Now this team stays on the road where they are scoring 27.7 PPG while averaging 378.7 total YPG. Tennessee has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill only threw the ball 15 times last week in the win against the Patriots — but he should not be underestimated to move the football in the air in this contest. Since taking over as the starting quarterback in Week Seven, Tannehill led the NFL for the rest of the regular season by averaging 6.94 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game — and he was tied for 2nd in touchdowns and 6th in QBR. The Titans have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: While Tennessee head coach would love to slow this game down by running Henry and burning time off the clock, this strategy is neutralized if Baltimore races out to a big lead — and the Ravens are averaging 17.7 PPG in the first half this season. The Titans have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams from the AFC — and the Ravens have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total against fellow AFC foes. 25* AFC Divisional Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (303) and the Baltimore Ravens (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (302) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (301). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (13-3) closed out the regular season winning their last two games after their 26-21 victory at Seattle for Sunday Night Football back on December 29th as a 3.5-point favorite. Minnesota (11-6) snapped a two-game losing streak last Saturday with their 26-20 upset win in overtime at New Orleans as a 7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: That was a huge emotional victory for tat Vikings team on the road and particularly for Kirk Cousins who may have permanently removed the proverbial money that has been on his back regarding his failure to step up in big games. Cousins was solid but not spectacular against the Saints by completing 19 of 31 passes for 242 yards with a touchdown pass. But this situation is eerily similar to Minnesota’s miracle victory over New Orleans in the playoffs two years ago under head coach Mike Zimmer which was then followed up by them being completely flat on the road to another number one seed in the NFC at Philadelphia with the Eagles crushing them by a 38-7 score. As it is, the Vikings have only covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win. Frankly, I don’t think Minnesota wins that game if Drew Brees does commit that rare fumble that he suffered in what looked like a go-ahead drive midway through the 4th quarter. And then winning the coin flip in overtime helped tremendously as the Vikings then scored a touchdown to negate Brees get another chance with the football. Despite the victory, Minnesota is still only scoring 18.3 PPG over their last three contests while averaging just 267.0 total YPG over that span which is far below their 25.4 PPG and 353.5 total YPG season average. They did get running back Dalvin Cook back last week after he took the last couple of games off to close out the regular season — but he is still averaging just 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry in his last seven games. The Vikings wide receivers are also less than 100% this week with Stefan Diggs dealing with an illness and Adam Thielen suffering an ankle injury that may slow him down. These are not great developments for a team that is used to playing on artificial turf as they did again last week. But when playing on grass as will be the case in Levi Stadium, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games. San Francisco secured their bye week and home field throughout the NFC playoffs with their clutch victory on the road against the Seahawks. The 49ers held Seattle scoreless in the first half of that game — and they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. QB Jimmy Garoppolo was very sharp in that game as he completed 18 of 22 passes for 285 yards while leading an offense that generated 398 total yards. The Niners are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. San Francisco has won five of their last seven games — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning four or five of their last six contests. The 49ers are 2nd in the league by scoring 29.9 PPG — and that number rises to 32.4 PPG at home where they are outscoring their opponents by +12.8 PPG and outgained their guests by +108.3 net YPG. San Francisco is also 2nd in the NFL by limiting their opponents to only 281.8 total YPG — and they will be getting the heart and soul of their defense back for this game in Kwon Alexander who has missed half the season with his chest injury.

FINAL TAKE: Teams unfamiliar with this Niners team has struggled as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against non-divisional opponents. San Francisco has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Minnesota’s victory last week was just their first win on the road against a team with a winning record all season. It was also just their first playoff win on the road since 2004. Yet the Vikings have still failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NFC Divisional Playoff Game of the Year with the San Francisco 49ers (302) minus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (148) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (147). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (9-7) has won four straight games with their 34-17 win at New York against the Giants as a 4-point favorite. Seattle (11-5) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Both of these teams are hit hard by injuries. The good news for Philadelphia is that it looks like tight end Zach Ertz, running back Miles Sanders, and cornerback Jalen Mills will take the field today. Yet even relying on former practice squad, head coach Doug Pederson and his offensive coaching staff have been making things work. Over their last three games, the Eagles have scored 29.3 PPG along with averaging 415.3 total YPG. The foundation has been quarterback Carson Wentz who has asserted himself as the leader of this team. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a double-digit victory. The coaching staff has been forced to be innovative with all their injuries but they are finding ways to move the football. For example, since Week Fourteen, Wentz has completed 28 of his 31 screen passes for 237 yards which is the most in the NFL over that span. Pederson is not stranger to coaching his team up in the playoffs as an underdog — over the last three seasons, he has lead his team to four upset wins in five playoff games when getting the points. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 playoff games as the underdog. The Eagles have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games in January. Furthermore, Philadelphia has held their eight visitors to just 16.7 PPG along with only 273.6 total YPG which has helped them cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog. Seattle has been the beneficiary of turnover luck and mossed field goal luck which has helped them overcome getting outgained in yardage this season. And while the Seahawks are 7-1 on the road this year, they are being outgained by -6.8 net YPG overall in those games. Seattle has lost their original top three running backs on their depth chart to injury. Left tackle Duane Brown is also out with his biceps injury which takes away the most effective offensive lineman from a unit that ranks just 24th in Adjusted Sack Rate. The Seahawks are being outgained by -74.7 net YPG over their last three games given a slowed-down offense that is scoring only 21.3 PPG while averaging 333.3 total YPG during that span. Russell Wilson’s potential MVP campaign has waned in the second half of the season. After posting 100+ QB Ratings in eight of his first nine games, Wilson has registered just one game earning a QBR of 100 or better over his last seven starts. Seattle did not score in the first half last week against the 49ers — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread after failing to score at least a field goal in the first half of their last game. They also are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against NFC opponents. And in their last 7 games in the playoffs, the Seahawks have failed to cover the point spread 5 times.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of Seattle’s 17-9 victory in Philly back on November 24th. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 52 games when looking to avenge a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 32 of their last 52 games when playing with revenge from a loss where they did not score at least 14 points. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Game of the Year with the Philadelphia Eagles (148) plus the points versus the Seattle Seahawks (147). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (145) and the New Orleans Saints (146). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (10-6) has lost two straight games with their 21-19 loss to Chicago at home last week as a 5-point underdog. New Orleans (13-3) has won three straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 42-10 win at Carolina last Sunday as a 13.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Vikings have played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spread as an underdog. And while Minnesota lost those two games despite being at home, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after losing their last two games at home. Now the Vikings go back on the road where they are scoring 26.5 PPG while averaging 375.7 total YPG which is +22.2 net YPG above their season average. Minnesota has played 5 straight road games Over the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The good news for the Vikings is that they expect to get back running back Dalvin Cook for this game after missing time (and rested) with his shoulder injury. But Minnesota may be forced to abandon the run game if they fall behind by multiple scores in this contest. The Vikings have been vulnerable in their pass coverage with opposing quarterbacks posting a Passer Rating of 99.7 with clean pockets which was just 16th in the league. Cornerback Xavier Rhodes has been torched this season with opposing quarterbacks completing 80% of their passes against them. Ever since their 26-9 loss at home to Atlanta on November 10th, the Saints have been dynamite on offense as they have scored at least 26 points in all seven games while scoring at least 34 points in each of their last four contests. Quarterback Drew Brees has a sensational 15:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those last four games — and he is completing 75.9% of his passes with 19 touchdown passes and a Passer Rating of 125.9 since Week 11. Furthermore, since Brees’ return in Week Eight after missing five games earlier to injury, New Orleans has ranked 3rd in the NFL in Expected Points Adder per play. The emergence of tight end of Jared Cook as a viable deep threat has made a big difference. Cook has six catches of at least 20 yards since Week Eleven. But the defense has been a concern for this team since they put defensive linemen Sheldon Rankins and Marcus Davenport on Injured Reserve. After ranking 7th in the NFL with 29.3% pressure the quarterback rate, that number has dropped to just a 23.7% QB pressure rate over their last three games without both players which is 18th in the league. The Saints have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a blowout win of at least four touchdowns over an NFC South rival — and they have played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after winning and covering the point spread in three straight games as the favorite. New Orleans is scoring 28.4 PPG at home while averaging 420.4 total YPG — and the Over is 13-5-1 in their last 19 games at home. The Saints have also played 6 of their last 8 home games Over the Total in the playoffs.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 11 meetings Over the Total. New Orleans is clicking on offense — but look for the Vikings to resort to their passing game to keep up. 25* NFC Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (145) and the New Orleans Saints (146). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (141) and the Houston Texans (142). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (10-6) enters the playoffs having lost their last two games along with three of the last four games with their 13-6 loss at home to the New York Jets last Sunday as a 1.5-point underdog. Houston (10-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 35-14 loss at home to Tennessee as a 10-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Buffalo plays outstanding defense — they rank 2nd in the NFL by allowing only 16.2 PPG and they rank 3rd in the league by giving up just 298.2 total YPG. But the issue for this team is scoring as they average just 19.6 PPG — and they have managed to score only 13.3 PPG in their last three games. The Bills go on the road where they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Buffalo has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Houston has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Texans have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Furthermore, Houston has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. The Texans will be without wide receiver Will Fuller for this contests who has been downgraded to doubtful with his groin injury. Fuller plays a critical role in this offense with his speed giving Houston the ability to stretch the field. In their 325 passing plays with Fuller on the field, the Texans averaged 7.0 yards per passing plays with 31 plays that gained at least 20 yards — but in their 303 passing plays without Fuller, they averaged just 5.8 yards per play with just 17 plays gaining at least 20 yards. Houston has played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents — and the Texans have played 21 of their last 31 games Under the Total against teams from the AFC. These two teams have also played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. 25* NFL Wildcard Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (141) and the Houston Texans (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (130) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (129). THE SITUATION: Seattle (11-4) has lost two of their last three games with their 27-13 upset loss at home to Arizona as an 8-point favorite lat Sunday. San Francisco (12-3) has won two of their last three games with their 34-31 win over the Los Angeles Rams as a 7-point favorite last Saturday night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Much is at stake in this game with the winner taking the NFC West crown with the loser taking the 5th seed in the playoffs and a date on the road next week. If the 49ers win this game, they also secure the top seed in the NFC side of the playoff bracket. Seattle is a M*A*S*H unit right now with their stable of running backs decimated by injuries and left tackle Duane Brown out with a bicep injury. The Seahawks had to resort to signing former players Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin off the street to serve as the running backs this week. While this is not ideal, if there is one position (outside of kicker) where a team could sign a player off the street and still see success that week, it is at running back — and both players are familiar with the playbook already. In head coach Pete Carroll and quarterback Russell Wilson, we will trust in this one to develop a game plan that puts his offense in a position to succeed even with this attrition. Seattle is 37-18-14 ATS in their last 69 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a loss at home. The Seahawks have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. The offense has struggled as of late with the offensive line not giving Wilson enough time in the pocket — he has been sacked 26 times over the last six games. Yet Seattle has scored at least 27 points in three of those contests. The Seahawks are also just 4-3 at home this season — but it would be foolish to diminish the home field edge they will enjoy tonight. Seattle is 33-15-3 in their last 51 games as an underdog — and they have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games at home as the dog. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. The Niners play on defense has collapsed since the injury of the heart and soul of their defense in linebacker Kwon Alexander. After holding their opponents to just 11 PPG in their first seven contests, they have allowed their last eight opponents to average 26.5 PPG. This defense has become even more banged up as the season goes on with this unit now missing defensive lineman Dee Ford and safety Jaquiski Tartt. The Niners have allowed their last three opponents to score 35.3 PPG while averaging 383.3 total YPG which is -105.9 net YPG above their defensive season average. San Francisco has allowed their last three opponents to score at least 29 points — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 41 of their last 62 games after allowing their last two opponents to score at least 25 points. The Niners allowed the Rams to pass for 323 yards last week — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. This team does not embrace the role of the favorite as they are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games when laying the points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road as the favorite. San Francisco is also just 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games against teams from the NFC with this including them going 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against fellow NFC West foes.

FINAL TAKE: The 49ers will be looking to avenge a 27-24 upset loss at home in overtime to the Seahawks back on November 11th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when avenging a loss at home. San Francisco is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 trips to Seattle to play the Seahawks. 25* NFC West Game of the Year with the Seattle Seahawks (130) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (129). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (132) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (131). THE SITUATION: Denver (6-9) has won three of their last four games with their 27-17 win over Detroit as a 9.5-point favorite last Sunday. Oakland (7-8) remained alive in the AFC playoff race last week with their 24-17 upset win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 7.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raiders need to win this game and then see Tennessee and Pittsburgh lose with Indianapolis winning (for strength of victory tie-break implications) and then a little more help to bolster their strength of victory tie-breaker resume (like New England winning) — so the pressure is on head coach Jon Gruden’s group. The Steelers and Titans are both on the road so this playoff scenario is not completely out of the realm. But I do not expect Oakland to play well. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 47 of their last 74 games after an upset victory — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in seven of these last nine situations. Oakland has also failed to cover the point spewed in 23 of their last 32 games after an upset victory over an AFC West rival — and this includes them failing to cover the point spread in these last four situations. Additionally, the inconsistent Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on the road after a point spread victory. Oakland enters this game far from at full strength with rookie phenom Josh Jacobs out with his shoulder injury and the offensive line banged up with left tackle Trent Brown out and guard Richie Incognito questionable with an ankle. The Raiders defense is also depleted with injuries to safety Karl Joseph and defensive end Arden Key making the season-ending suspension to linebacker Vontaz Burfict even more devastating. There is a reason why this team had lost four straight games before they upset a reeling Chargers team. Oakland stays on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after losing three of their last four games. The Raiders are being outscored by -10.8 PPG away from home while allowing their home hosts to score 29.9 PPG. Oakland is 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 road games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Raiders have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 road games as an underdog. Furthermore, Oakland has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams from the AFC — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December. Denver is playing for next season as they hope to build momentum under first-year head coach Vic Fangio and quarterback Drew Lock. The rookie has played well since getting a look under center — he completed 25 of 33 passes last week for 192 yards with one touchdown pass and no interceptions in leading the Broncos to victory. Denver is completing 65.3% of their passes over their last three games while averaging 233 passing YPG on a solid 6.9 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt average with Lock taking the vast majority of those snaps. The Broncos are scoring 22.7 PPG while averaging 330.0 total YPG over those last three games which is a nice improvement over their 17.7 PPG and 302.6 YPG season averages. Any bump in offensive production makes this a much better team given the outstanding defense this team still plays. Denver ranks 10th in the NFL in both allowing only 20.1 PPG and surrendering just 327.7 total YPG. The Broncos are even stingier at home where they hold their visitors to just 18.3 PPG along with only 300.6 total YPG. Denver has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games with the Total set at 38.5 to 42. The Broncos have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Denver will be motivated not only to build momentum for next season but also to play the role of spoiler for the Raiders’ playoff hopes. The Broncos will also be looking to avenge a 24-16 upset loss in Oakland back on September 9th where they were 3-point favorites. Denver has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when avenging an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a road favorite. 25* AFC West Game of the Year with the Denver Broncos (132) minus the points versus the Oakland Raiders (131). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (103) and the Cincinnati Bengals (104). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (6-9) has lost two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 31-15 loss to Baltimore last week as a 9.5-point underdog. Cincinnati (1-14) has lost three games in a row with their 38-35 upset loss at Miami as a 1.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Who knows how rookie head coach Freddie Kitchens will call plays this afternoon in his likely last opportunity to fulfill his lifelong fantasy of being both a head coach and offensive coordinator calling plays. Kitchens has been an utter failure this season with his lack of leadership best displayed in his unwillingness to defer the play-calling responsibilities to offensive coordinator Todd Monken after the Browns struggled early in the season. Kitchens had never even been an offensive coordinator when last season started — and he is unlikely to ever be a head coach or offensive coordinator ever again (at least in the NFL). Kitchens may use this game to dig deep into his drawings book of unused plays he has been compiling throughout his long traveled career as a journeyman assistant coach. But, I suspect he will be compelled to draw up plenty of running plays to feed the rock to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt for a delusional Hail Mary pass to keep his job when facing the league’s worst statistical run defense — and that is a good formula for the Under. As it is, the Browns have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. And while Cleveland managed only 241 yards of offense last week, the Under is then 42-20-2 in their last 64 games after failing to gain at least 250 yards in their last game. The Browns are averaging just 322.3 YPG over their last three games — and they score only 19.3 PPG on the road. Cleveland needs to tighten things up on the defensive side of the ball after allowing 69 combined points over their last two games. The Browns have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total allowing at least 30 points in two straight contests. And while Cleveland allowed the Ravens to average 6.77 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then played 6 straight games Under the Total after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.0 YPP. Cincinnati has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss — and the Under is 12-5-1 in their last 18 games after a loss. And while the Bengals went into halftime last week trailing the Dolphins by a 21-6 score, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after trailing by at least two touchdowns at halftime of their last game. Cincinnati did generate 430 yards last week — but the Under is 10-3-2 in their last 15 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bengals return home where they are scoring only 16.4 PPG. The Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. The Under is also 12-3-1 in Cincinnati’s last 16 games as an underdog. And in their last 16 games against fellow AFC opponents, the Under is 10-4-2.

FINAL TAKE: The Bengals have clinched the number one pick in the 2020 NFL draft — but they will be motivated to avenge a 27-19 loss in Cleveland back on December 8th as a 6.5-point underdog. Cincinnati has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Browns (103) and the Cincinnati Bengals (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (481) and the Minnesota Vikings (482). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (11-3) has won three in a row with their 21-13 win over Chicago as a 4-point favorite last week. Minnesota (10-4) has won two straight games as well as four of their last five contests with their 39-10 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Packers have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Green Bay has an improved defense this season that is 8th in the NFL by allowing only 20.2 PPG. Over their last three games, the Packers have allowed just 13.7 PPG along with only 337.3 total YPG. Some of the help to the defense has been a different style of play under first-year head coach Matt LeFleur as the team is running the ball more which keeps their defense rested. But Green Bay is averaging only 336.6 total YPG as a result which is 21st in the NFL. When the Packers play away from Lambeau Field, they are scoring just 20.8 PPG while averaging only 271.0 total YPG. Green Bay has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as an underdog. While LeFleur’s emphasis on running the football may have made this team a more consistent winner, he is also very predictable with his game planning. Not including the first quarter (with those initial scripted plays), quarterback Aaron Rodgers is completing less than 60% of his passes with only four touchdown passes over his last eighteen (non-first quarter) quarters. Those unimpressive numbers suggest LeFleur is getting out-schemed as the game moves forward. Furthermore, the Packers have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 7 games against NFC North opponents, Green Bay has played all 7 of these games Under the Total. Minnesota has played 25 of their last 33 games Under the Total against fellow teams from the NFC North. The Vikings have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by at least 14 points — and they have played 40 of their last 57 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Minnesota is undermanned tonight at the running back position with both Delvin Cook and Alexander Mattison not playing because of injuries. Over their last three games, the Vikings are averaging just 350.7 total YPG which is -21.9 YPG below their season average. Minnesota still has a great defense that ranks 6th in the NFL by allowing just 18.5 PPG. The Vikings defense is even better when playing at home where they are holding their opponents to just 14.2 PPG along with only 314.7 total YPG. Minnesota has played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total when playing in Minnesota. 25* NFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (481) and the Minnesota Vikings (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (479) and the Chicago Bears (478). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (10-4) has won four straight games with their 23-3 win over Denver last Sunday as a 10-point favorite. Chicago (7-7) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week in their 21-13 loss at Green Bay as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win at home against an AFC West rival. Additionally, Kansas City has played 50 of their last 78 games Under the Total after winning three straight games. And while the Chiefs have covered the point spread in their last four games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 gamed Under the Total after covering the point spread in four straight games. The Kansas City defense has been outstanding over their last four games since their bye week. The Chiefs are allowing only 9.3 PPG in their last four contests which is tops in the NFL — and they are giving up just 287.0 total YPG over those four games which is 5th best in the league. Kansas City is holding opposing quarterbacks to just a 62.6 Passer Rating which is 2nd best in the NFL. The Chiefs have not allowed more than 17 points in their last four games — and they have then played 49 of their last 80 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight contests. Furthermore, Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as the favorite. Chicago has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. The Bears have also played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Chicago did generate 415 total yards against the Packers — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky has played better as of late — he averaged 299 passing yards per game over his last four games. But he has put up those numbers against the Detroit, NY Giants, Dallas, and Green Bay defenses so his improved stats should be put into the contest. Trubisky dropped back to throw 53 passes last week — and the Bears have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a game where they attempted at least 50 passes. Chicago returns home where they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total. The Bears still have an elite level defense as they rank 3rd in the NFL by allowing only 18.1 PPG — and they rank 8th in the league by giving up just 324.8 total YPG. Chicago’s defense is even tougher at home where they are allowing just 17.1 PPG along with only 299.7 total YPG. The Bears have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: It will be chilly tonight on the south of Chicago in Soldier Field with temperatures dropping to the mid-30s. The Bears have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total in December. Kansas City has played 4 straight games Under the Total in December. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (479) and the Chicago Bears (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (451) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (452). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last Sunday with their 44-21 upset loss at Dallas as a 1-point favorite. San Francisco (11-3) has lost two of their last three games with their 29-22 upset loss at home to Atlanta as a 10.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles was embarrassed last week on the late window game on national television. They should respond with a strong effort tonight as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Rams have covered the point spread in 11 go their last 17 games after suffering an upset loss by at least two touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in all 3 of their games after being upset this season. They need to get the ball to running back Todd Gurley more after he only rushed the ball 11 times last week. While Gurley seems to have lost his lateral speed, the Los Angeles offense has been at its most effective when they remained committed to running the football to better set up their play-action passing for quarterback Jared Goff. After experiencing a midseason slump, Goff has averaged 333.7 passing YPG over his last three games while tossing two touchdown passes in each contest. The Rams’ improvement this week needs to be on the other side of the football after surrendering 475 yards to the Cowboys while falling behind by a 28-7 score at halftime. The Los Angeles defense has not allowed more than 20 points in ten games this season so they should respond with a strong effort. The Rams have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 35 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last contest. Surprisingly, LA has been a better road team this season after having a significantly better at home last year. In their six true home games, the Rams are 3-3 while being outscored by -3.9 PPG and outgained by -13.4 net YPG. In their eight games away from the Los Angeles, the Rams are 5-3 with an average winning margin of +6.2 PPG while winning the yardage battle by +69.1 net YPG. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. San Francisco is also looking to rebound from an upset loss — but injuries on defense have changed the dynamic of this team. Losing linebacker Kwon Alexander took away the heart and soul of that unit — and that group has suffered a string of injuries ever since that late-October season-ending injury. The 49ers have allowed 25.9 PPG over their last seven games after limiting their first seven opponents to a mere 11 PPG. They have picked off only one pass over those last seven games and they have managed only three sacks over their last three games. San Fran has allowed 75 combined points over their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 61 games after allowing at least 25 points in two straight contests. The Niners have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a game where at least 50 combined points were scored. San Francisco stays at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45 point range. Additionally, the 49ers are just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 home games as the favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games this season when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: San Francisco is just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games against fellow NFC West foes — and they have a more important game on deck with Seattle next week that will likely determine the NFC West champion so they may be caught looking ahead. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against divisional opponents — and they will be motivated to avenge a 20-7 upset loss at home to the Niners back on October 13th as a 3-point favorite. The Rams have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 14 points. 25* NFL Network Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Rams (451) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (333) and the New Orleans Saints (334). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (6-7) has lost three straight games with their 38-35 loss at Tampa Bay last Sunday as a 3-point underdog. New Orleans (10-3) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week with their 48-46 upset loss at home to San Francisco as a 1-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: While last week saw 94 combined points scored in a scoring fest between two NFC powers, history is not likely to repeat itself tonight back in the Big Easy. mNot only have the Saints played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total in their last game but they have also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. Drew Brees led an offense that generated 465 yard of offense — but New Orleans has then played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a game where they gained at least 400 yards. Furthermore, the Saints have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 30 points — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 40 points in their last contest. And while New Orleans has scored at least 26 points in four straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 25 points in three straight contests. The Saints offensive line is banged up right now so it may be difficult for them to continue to put up these big offensive numbers. They stay at home where they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 12 games against teams with a losing record overall, New Orleans has played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total. Indianapolis has played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. The Colts have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after losing three games in a row. The Indianapolis game plan will be to run the football with a healthy Marlon Mack working behind their great offensive line with the goal of controlling possession and burning time off the clock. The Colts have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home — and they have played 12 of the last 17 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Indianapolis has also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Additionally, the Colts have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has played 23 of their last 32 games Under the Total in December. With the Colts unlikely to have wide receiver T.Y. Hilton tonight with head coach Frank Reich claiming he would only play if he was 100% again, the Indianapolis offense will be limited and unlikely willing to try to get into a shootout after losing in a high-scoring game with the Buccaneers. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (333) and the New Orleans Saints (334). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Houston Texans (313) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (314). THE SITUATION: Houston (8-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week at home against Denver in an embarrassing 38-24 loss despite being an 8-point underdog. Tennessee (8-5) has won four straight games as well as six of their last seven contests with their 42-21 win at Oakland as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TEXANS PLUS THE POINTS: Houston should respond with a strong effort this afternoon — they have not lost two straight games in their last twenty-seven contests. The Texans have been consistently reliable this season coming off a loss this season. They have won all four of their games after a defeat so far this season while averaging 28.3 PPG along with 409.8 total YPG fueled by a ground game that has averaged 130.3 rushing YPG in those contests. Houston has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 ames after a double-digit loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit loss as a favorite laying at least 6 points. Additionally, the Texans are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a point spread loss. And Houston has covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after playing a game on their home field. The Texans did end up outgaining the Broncos by 23 net yards but could not dig themselves out of the hole from their 31-3 halftime deficit. Houston has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. Tennessee has been one of the hottest teams in the league since Ryan Tannehill has taken over as the starting quarterback — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning at least three games in a row. The Titans have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. Furthermore, Tennessee is just 16-36-1 ATS in their last 51 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Tannehill was spectacular against the porous Raiders’ defense as he completed 21 of 27 passes for 391 yards while leading an offense that generated 552 total yards. But the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after passing for at least 350 yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 500 yards in their last game. But a concern for this team is their defense after they allowed Oakland to gain 355 yards. Tennessee is just 19th in the NFL this season by allowing 361.5 total YPG — and they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Opponents have found success in the passing game against this Titans defense that allows 259.9 passing YPG which is 25th in the NFL — and their secondary is banged up entering this game. Tennessee is also being outgained at home by -44.9 net YPG when playing at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Titans are just 16-33-1 ATS in their last 50 games against fellow AFC South opponents — and they are just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games against the Texans. And wide receiver Will Fuller is expected to play again for the Texans — and they have won eleven of their last fourteen games with a healthy fuller complement wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Expect a close game where Houston will be in a position to pull the upset. 25* AFC South Underdog of the Year with the Houston Texans (313) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (301) and the Baltimore Ravens (302). THE SITUATION: New York (5-8) has won four of their last five games with their 22-21 win at home against Miami last week as a 5-point favorite. Baltimore (11-2) has won nine straight games after their 24-17 win at Buffalo last Sunday as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ravens have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win on the road. And while they have covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Baltimore offense leads the NFL by scoring 33.1 PPG — but they have only averaged 22 PPG in their last two contests while generating just 270.4 total YPG. The Ravens have played two outstanding defenses in their last two games against San Francisco and then the Bills last week — but those defenses also provided a blueprint as to how to slow down Lamar Jackson and this unique Baltimore offense. For starters, defenses are having their athletic defensive ends play “cat-and-mouse” with Jackson to not overcommit in their actions to contain the speedy QB in the pocket and force him to pass or run for a shorter gain. Second, pass coverages deploying quarter-quarter-half schemes which are pushing Jackson’s passing options to one side of the field. Lastly, Buffalo began to commit earlier to shifting a few defenders to the other side of the field in response to the Baltimore Escort Motion where a tight end (or wide receiver) goes in motion to offer a run-blocker on the other side of the field. The problem with that Bills’ tactic of shifting defenders before the man-in-motion passes the center will be that the Ravens will eventually reverse that motion and catch defenders moving too quickly to the wrong side. However, I don’t think Baltimore offensive coordinator Greg Roman wastes that wrinkle on the Jets tonight — so the Jets should have some success copy-catting this and these other new defensive strategies. As it is, New York has an outstanding run defense that is 2nd in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 78.8 rushing YPG — and they lead the league by holding opposing rushers to use 3.03 Yards-Per-Carry. The Ravens return home where they have played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total with the number in the 42.5 to 49 point range. While Jackson gets most of the attention, the Baltimore defense ranks 5th in the NFL by allowing just 18.2 PPG and 6th in the league by limiting their opponents to only 314.6 total YPG. The Ravens have also held their last three opponents to just 13.3 PPG along with only 253.7 total YPG. The Bills passed for only 105 yards against them last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. Baltimore’s defense starts with their outstanding secondary that might have become the best unit in the league with the midseason trade of cornerback Marcus Peters. Not only do strong cover skills help the pass rush, but it also gives defensive coordinator Wink Martindale the freedom to take more chances with the blitz. The Ravens lead the NFL by blitzing on 54.5% of the time — and now they face Sam “I see ghosts” Darnold tonight. In that Monday night game against the Patriots on October 21st when Darnold was caught on mic admitting he was seeing “ghosts” in the backfield against the Patriots blitz, he completed just 8 of 16 passes for only 66 yards with no touchdown passes and three interceptions when facing a blitz. For the season, Darnold ranks 30th of 32 quarterbacks with a 48.2 Passer Rating when facing the blitz. Darnold did complete 20 of 36 passes last week against the Dolphins for 270 yards — but the Jets have played 4 straight games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Now New York goes on the road where they are scoring just 15.5 PPG along with averaging just 239.7 total YPG. The Jets have played 9 of their last 13 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. New York’s defense does travel as they are holding their home hosts to just 308.8 total YPG. And in their last three games, the Jets are allowing only 15.3 PPG and just 282.2 total YPG. Additionally, New York has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against fellow AFC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: I don’t see the Jets scoring much tonight. Even if the Ravens put up a big number against this good New York defense, head coach John Harbaugh will likely call off the proverbial dogs early in this one with it being played on a short week. Jackson is not 100% with sore quads and getting him to the bench better takes advantage of the extra time off he will have before his next game. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Jets (301) and the Baltimore Ravens (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (159) and the Philadelphia Eagles (160). THE SITUATION: New York (2-10) has lost eight games in a row with their 31-13 loss at home to Green Bay last week as a 6.5-point underdog. Philadelphia (5-7) has lost three games in a row after their embarrassing 37-31 upset loss at Miami last week as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles should respond with a better effort tonight after that humiliating loss to the Dolphins — and their improved level of play will most likely translate on the defensive side of the football. Philadelphia had held their previous four opponents to no more than 17 points before allowing those 37 points to Miami. They also had not allowed more than 225 passing yards in five straight games before Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 351 yards against them last week. The Eagles have 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 passing yards in their last game — and they gave played 16 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a game where they both scored and allowed at least 30 points. Philadelphia has also played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after suffering an upset loss as a home favorite. The Eagles return home where they are holding their opponents to just 18.0 PPG along with only 270.5 total YPG which is the third lowest number at home in the NFL. Philadelphia has played 4 straight home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Eagles have also played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have played 10 of their last 14 home games Under the Total as the favorite. But while Philly should play better on defense, they are limited in what they can accomplish on offense with DeSean Jackson on Injured Reserve with his abdominal injury. The Eagles lack a credible vertical threat without Jackson which allows opposing defenses to cheat their strong safety into the box. Philadelphia is scoring just 16.7 PPG over their last three games while averaging just 328.3 total YPG. They have played a decisive 50 of their last 72 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. New York will be turning to Eli Manning back under center tonight with rookie Daniel Jones out with his ankle injury. Remember, Manning lost his job in September given his declining throwing skills made his lack of mobility a significant liability. Manning will also be without the top two tight ends on the roster with Evan Engram and Rhett Ellison out with injuries tonight. This is not good news for an offense that has scored only 18.0 PPG while averaging just 286.3 total YPG over their last three games. The Giants’ defense has played better as of late as they have held their last three opponents to just 317.0 total YPG. New York held the Packers to just 79 rushing yards last week — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Additionally, the Giants have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing at least eight of their last ten games. And in their last 6 games against teams with a winning percentage in the 40% to 49% percentage in the second half of the season, New York has played all 6 games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Eagles have played 5 of their last 7 appearances on Monday Night Football Under the Total — and in their last 9 opportunities to host the Giants in Philadelphia, the game finished Under the Total 7 times. 25* NFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (159) and the Philadelphia Eagles (160). Best of luck for us — Frank.