12-15-22 |
49ers v. Seahawks UNDER 43.5 |
Top |
21-13 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (301) and the Seattle Seahawks (302). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (9-4) has won six games in a row after their 35-7 victory against Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. Seattle (7-6) has lost three of their last four contests after their 30-24 upset loss to Carolina as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers’ defense stymied Tom Brady and the Buccaneers' offense by holding them to 322 total yards. This San Francisco defense has not allowed more than 17 points in six straight games — and their last three opponents have combined for just 24 total points. With this Niners' defense closer to full strength after dealing with injuries, they are making a strong case that they are the best defensive unit in the NFL. They are allowing only 15.2 Points-Per-Game and 286.8 total Yards-Per-Game. They rank 2nd and 5th in Run Defense and Pass Defense according to the DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders. San Francisco ranks 2nd in Defensive DVOA overall and 1st in weighted Defensive DVOA which puts more emphasis on recent performances. The 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a victory by three or more touchdowns — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Niners have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. San Francisco will make it very difficult for the Seahawks to run the football — the 69 rushing yards Tampa Bay generated against them was actually the most yards they have allowed on the ground in their last six games. The 49ers have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in three straight games. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go on the road to play in a hostile environment for the first time since October 30th (their lone road game last month was in Mexico against Arizona). San Francisco has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing two straight games at home. They have also played 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. Brock Purdy has been a pleasant surprise for the team — but as the book gets written on him as he puts accumulates for game tape with the Niners, this will be his first NFL appearance away from the friendly confines of Levi’s Stadium. The 49ers have played 4 straight Unders after scoring at least 35 points in their last game. And while they have played two straight Overs with Purdy under center, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs. Purdy looks to get the start tonight despite his ribs and oblique injury — the rookie has a hard assignment on a short week and limited practice. Head coach Kyle Shanahan will likely have a run-heavy game plan tonight even without Elijah Mitchell who is back on the Injured List with an MCL injury. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel is out as well with an ankle and knee injury. This team could sure use Jeff Wilson who they traded to Miami after acquiring Christian McCaffrey. Remember when McCaffrey was only going to be just another weapon in this offense to not risk yet another injury? He looks to get a heavy workload tonight — and Seattle knows it. The Seahawks have been a disaster in stopping the run after allowing 209.5 rushing YPG in their last four games. And they expect to have Kenneth Walker back at running back after he missed last week which will help them control the clock after their defense was on the field for 39:16 minutes against the Panthers. Seattle has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. And while they have failed to cover the point spread in four straight games, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Seahawks have not allowed more than 148 passing yards in their last two games — and they have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in two straight games. They stay at home where they are holding their opponents to 22.5 Points-Per-Game — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total as an underdog. The Seahawks have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on Thursday Night Football.
FINAL TAKE: Seattle has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and San Francisco has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. This is a rematch of the Niners' 27-7 victory at home on September 18th — and the Seahawks have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total when playing with same-season revenge. 25* NFC West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (301) and the Seattle Seahawks (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-12-22 |
Patriots -1 v. Cardinals |
Top |
27-13 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (127) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (128). THE SITUATION: New England (6-6) has lost two games in a row after their 24-10 loss to Buffalo as a 3.5-point underdog back on December 1st. Arizona (4-8) has lost two straight — and four of their last five — after a 25-24 loss at home to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog two weeks ago on November 27th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS MINUS THE POINTS: New England comes off two straight losses — but they were against playoff teams, Minnesota and the Bills last week. Many observers are oh-so quick to criticize Bill Belichick since he has not had Super Bowl contenders since Tom Brady left for Tampa Bay — but the sign of a great coach is that your teams are still playing at a .500 level and contending for playoff spots even without a franchise level quarterback. Winning half the games is the floor for Belichick (23-22 post-Brady) — and there are many highly regarded coaches in the league (Sean McVay, Kevin Stefanski, Matt LaFleur) who would love a .500 record right about now. Expect the Patriots to play well tonight as they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games this season after a loss. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a double-digit loss at home. New England gained only 242 total yards while getting outgained by -113 net yards — but they have then covered the point spread in 7 straight games after getting outgained by -100 or more yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 28 games after not generating at least 250 yards in their last game. And while they have failed to cover the point spread in two straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games on the road after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Now the Patriots go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The thirstiest and lowest-hanging fruit of an argument to make is to criticize Belichick for appointing his former defensive coordinator (and disaster of a head coach in Detroit) Matt Patricia for being tabbed as the team’s offensive coordinator this season. The deeper analytics at Football Outsiders rank New England 25th in Offensive DVOA — ranking 26th in the run game and 22nd in the pass. But “offensive guru” Kliff Kingsbury with Kyler Murray at quarterback ranks 29th in the league in Offensive DVOA -- bottoming out at 27th in the run and 28th in the passing game. The Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a game at home where both teams scored 24 or more points. Murray is regressing — and it starts with his struggles against pressure. He has been sacked 18 times in his last three starts (all losses) — he got sacked once for every 12 of his dropbacks. His Passer Rating of 12.8 when under pressure is in the NFL. Now here comes Matthew Judon with his 13 sacks this season and this Patriots defense that ranks 3rd in the league by sacking the quarterback in 9.01% of their dropbacks. But it is not just handling pressure where Murray is struggling since he signed his large contract extension — it is when he is not dinking and dunking. In passes of at least 10 air yards (which is still technically considered intermediate), he has completed only 49 of 108 passes for a 45.4% completion percentage with two touchdowns on those throws but six interceptions. Furthermore, the 8.4 yards per attempt he is averaging on those throws is the third worst in the NFL — only Kenny Pickett and Joe Flacco have lower YPA averages. Murray has also lost sixteen of his last twenty starts at home. Arizona is a bad home where they are just 1-5 this season while getting outscored by -6.2 Points-Per-Game and getting outgained by -74.4 net Yards-Per-Game. The Carnivals have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home in the second half of the season. Furthermore, Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on Monday Night Football.
FINAL TAKE: Say what you want about Belichick — but the Special Teams remain above average and his defense is elite. New England ranks 3rd in the NFL in Defensive DVOA — and ranking 8th against the run and 4th against the pass. This formula has helped the Patriots cover the point spread in 35 of their last 51 games against teams with a losing record. 25* NFL Monday Night Special Feature with New England Patriots (127) minus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (128). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-11-22 |
Dolphins v. Chargers OVER 51.5 |
Top |
17-23 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (119) and the Los Angeles Chargers (120). THE SITUATION: Miami (8-4) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 33-17 loss at San Francisco as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Los Angeles (6-6) has lost three of their last four games after their 27-20 loss at Las Vegas as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Dolphins had scored at least 30 points in four straight games before getting stymied by the 49ers’ stout defense. Now playing this weak Chargers defense may be just what the doctor ordered to get quarterback Tua Tagovailoa who struggled under the pressure of the San Francisco pass rush last week. Tagovailoa still leads the NFL in Passer Rating — and now he faces a defense that ranks 26th in the NFL using the weighted DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders that privileges the most recent results. Tagovailoa completed 18 of 33 passes for 295 yards with two touchdowns but two interceptions against the Niners. Miami has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. They have also played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Dolphins stayed out west this week for this second game on the road — and their offense generates 397.2 Yards-Per-Game away from home. But Miami also allows their home hosts to score 32.8 Points-Per-Game. The Dolphins have played 4 straight Overs on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total with the number set at 45.5 or higher. And while the Chargers average 353.7 total YPG, Miami has played 8 of their last 9 games on the road Over the Total against teams who average at least 350 YPG. Injuries have not helped the Los Angeles cause with linebacker Joey Bosa and cornerback J.C. Jackson among their best players that have been out for an extended basis — and star safety Derwin James is doubtful to play tonight after missing practice all week with a quad injury. But the defensive problems go deeper than that. Second-year head coach Brandon Staley has been ineffective in taking care of his side of the football after being hired after one season as the defensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams. In hindsight, the Rams’ defensive success that year probably has much more to do with Aaron Donald than it did with Staley’s schemes which effectively deployed nickel and dime schemes with Donald still clogging the run lanes. The Chargers have allowed their last three opponents to generate 420.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in 27.0 Points-Per-Game from these foes. Los Angeles returns home to SoFi Stadium where they are giving up 28.0 PPG. The Chargers have played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. Justin Herbert usually manages to keep his team competitive with four of the Chargers’ six losses being decided by one scoring possession. He completed 28 of 47 passes for 335 passing yards against the Raiders — and now he gets Mike Williams back this week to join up with Keenan Allen after both wide receivers have missed multiple games this season. Los Angeles gained 386 yards in that game — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. They have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. Additionally, the Chargers have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total at home.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angles has played 5 of their last 6 games over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (119) and the Los Angeles Chargers (120). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-11-22 |
Jaguars v. Titans UNDER 41 |
Top |
36-22 |
Loss |
-107 |
3 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (115) and the Tennessee Titans (116). THE SITUATION: Jacksonville (4-8) has lost seven of their last nine games after their 40-14 loss at Detroit as a 1-point underdog last Sunday. Tennessee (7-5) has lost two games in a row after a 35-10 loss at Philadelphia as a 5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Jaguars managed only 266 total yards of offense in their loss to the Lions last week. They have not scored more than 17 points in four of their last six contests — and they are averaging just 304.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games. Jacksonville has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. Additionally, the Jaguars have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after playing a game where 50 or more combined points were scored. And while Jacksonville has played their last two games Over the Total, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs. The Jaguars stay on the road where they have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Tennessee has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. Ryan Tannehill completed 14 of 22 passes for just 141 yards — and he was relieved by rookie Malik Willis who completed 2 of his 4 passes for another 16 yards. The Titans managed to generate only 209 total yards of offense against the Eagles. They have played 5 straight games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last games. That result appeared to be the final straw for ownership who fired general manager Jon Robinson earlier this week for, in large part, trading away wide receiver A.J. Brown to Philadelphia on draft day. The issue was never the importance of Brown — it was whether or not the organization was going to meet his eventual sky-high contract demands. In hindsight, trading him to Philly and then drafting Treylon Burks in the first round later that night. But Burks has been injured for much of the season — and he is questionable to play today after not practicing this week. Without Burks yet stepping up, the Titans' offense lacks a number-one target in the passing game. Injuries on the offensive line have compounded matters — most notably, left tackle Taylor Lewan is out the season. But perhaps the biggest concern for this offense relates to running back Derrick Henry who seems to have hit a wall. In his last four games, he has run the ball 75 times for just 208 rushing yards with only one touchdown. Not only is he averaging just 2.78 rushing Yards-Per-Carry — and he has not generated more than 3.1 YPC in any of those four games. Tennessee has not scored more than 17 points in five of their last six games. And while the Jaguars' defense has been a disappointment, they are solid against the run railing 13th in the league using the DVOA analytics by Football Outsides. But the Titans' defense remains solid as their loss to Philadelphia was the first time they allowed more than 20 points since Week Three. They have held six of their last nine opponents to 17 or fewer points. They allowed 453 yards last week — but they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after alloying 350 or more yards in their last contest. They return home where they are allowing just 16.6 PPG — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total at home. They have also played 9 of their last 10 home games Under the Total at home when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against AFC South rivals — and Jacksonville has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against divisional rivals. 25* AFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars (115) and the Tennessee Titans (116). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-08-22 |
Raiders v. Rams UNDER 44.5 |
Top |
16-17 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (5-7) has won three in a row after their 27-20 victory at home against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (3-9) has lost six games in a row after their 27-23 loss to Seattle as a 7-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After only gaining 400 or more yards once in their first nine games, the Raiders have topped the 400-yard threshold in three straight games after they gained 404 yards against the Chargers. But Las Vegas has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after gaining 350 or more yards in their last contest. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Running back Josh Jacobs has rushed for 482 yards in those three contests — but he may not be able to maintain that level of effectiveness playing on a short week while being officially listed as questionable with a quad and calf injury. I do expect Jacobs to play — I just remain in doubt about how good he will be on three days of rest. The Raiders held the Chargers to just 72 rushing yards last week — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last contest. Las Vegas stays on the road for the third time in their last four games having scored just 21.7 Points-Per-Game and averaging 308.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their seven contests away from home — and they are just 2-5 on the road. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Los Angeles is a mess at quarterback with Matthew Stafford out the season with a spinal injury and backup John Wolford questionable with a neck injury. The Rams signed Baker Mayfield two days ago — and it looks like there is a good chance he will play tonight. I waited until this afternoon waiting for the updated report on who will start at quarterback tonight — head coach Sean McVay will wait on that decision until Wolford goes through pre-game workouts to see how his neck responds. If Wolford cannot go, then McVay will turn to either Bryce Perkins or Mayfield who has been in their building for just two days. No matter who is under center tonight, Los Angeles will want to establish the run to slow this game down. They gained 171 rushing yards last week against the Seahawks — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for 150 or more yards in their last contest. The Rams have been a gigantic disappointment, especially on offense where they are scoring 16.8 PPG and averaging 281.3 YPG this season — and they are managing just 17.7 PPG and 284.3 YPG in their last three games. Los Angeles misses left tackle Andrew Whitworth who retired in the offseason — and subsequent injuries on the offensive line have made this unit a shell of the one that helped them win the Super Bowl last season. The Rams gave up 348 passing yards last week as well — but they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing 250 or more passing yards in their last contest.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 17 of their last 25 home games Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (101) and the Los Angeles Rams (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-05-22 |
Saints v. Bucs -3 |
Top |
16-17 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (477). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (5-6) had their two-game winning streak snapped last week in a 23-17 upset loss at Cleveland as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. New Orleans (4-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 13-0 loss at San Francisco as a 9.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay has disappointed this season — and their fundamental flaw on the offensive line this year was made even worse with the lower-leg injury to Tristan Wirfs. I appreciate the impact of this injury. But … running the ball helps cover the weaknesses of a bad offensive line and the Buccaneers are starting to get nice contributions from rookie Rachaad White who has rushed for 169 yards in the last two games with a 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry average. A veteran quarterback with elite pocket presence helps with a bad offensive line as well — and here comes Tom Brady with the opportunity to still get his team into the postseason with a defense that remains outstanding two years removed from their Super Bowl victory in 2021. The Buccaneers return home after playing their last two games away from home in Germany and then Cleveland last week. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home against teams with a losing record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after an upset on the road as a favorite. The Buccaneers are holding their opponents to 18.5 Points-Per-Game and 315.2 total Yards-Per-Game — and they have held their last three opponents to 17.3 PPG and 285.3 total YPG. The DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders ranks Tampa Bay as the 7th best defense in the NFL. New Orleans only gained 260 yards last week in their shutout loss to the Niners. It is dangerous to fade teams embarrassed by a shutout loss — but the Saints’ issues on offense go much deeper than just a bad day at the office. They are scoring just 12.3 PPG and averaging 256.3 total YPG in their last three games. Alvin Kamara seems to have lost a step — he is averaging only 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry in his last three games with only 163 rushing yards. He has added another 230 yards in the air in those three games — but the problem there is that he serves as a primary receiver for this team that lacks weapons at wideout. The offense misses a number-one option now that Michael Thomas is out the season. And then there are their problems at quarterback with Andy Dalton being given the nod over Jameis Winston since he is less turnover-prone. The Red Rifles’ frontline stats are solid this season — but it is fair to say he lacks juice. Let’s use one of our tools in MLB to break his numbers down further: home/road splits. In his six starts at home at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, Dalton has completed 68.5% of his passes averaging a 7.6 Yards-Per-Attempt average with nine touchdown passes and two interceptions. But in his three starts on the road this season, he is completing 63.1% of his passes averaging 7.2 YPA with five touchdown passes and five interceptions. Dalton versus the Tampa Bay defense seems to be the critical matchup that gives the Buccaneers the edge — especially with Kamara faltering as of late. DVOA ranks the New Orleans offense 24th in the league — and their passing attack ranks 24th in the NFL. Not surprisingly, the Saints are bad on the road with a 1-5 record and scoring just 18.3 PPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight appearances on Monday Night Football.
FINAL TAKE: I had higher hopes for Dennis Allen as the head coach for the Saints this season — and he enters this month leading a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in December. The Buccaneers, on the other hand, have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December. I considered New Orleans’ revenge angle for this game and the sustained success they have had against Brady since he moved to Tampa Bay — but I still concluded the Bucs similarly handle them as they did on September 18th when they won 20-10 in New Orleans as a 2.5-point favorite. 25* NFC South Game of the Month with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (477). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-04-22 |
Colts v. Cowboys UNDER 44.5 |
Top |
19-54 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (475) and the Dallas Cowboys (476). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (4-7-1) has lost two in a row and five of their last six contests after their 24-17 upset loss to Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point favorite on Monday. Dallas (8-3) has won two in a row and four of their last five games after their 28-20 win against the New York Giants as a 10.5-point favorite on Thanksgiving.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts managed only 290 yards of offense against the Steelers. They have not scored more than 17 points in five of their last six games and seven of their last nine contests. They have not scored more than 21 points in ten of their 12 games. They are averaging only 15.8 Points-Per-game on the season — and in their five games on the road, they are scoring just 11.7 PPG and averaging 311.5 total Yards-Per-Game. Indianapolis has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have played 4 straight Unders when playing on a short week after a game on Monday. And while the Colts endured a -2 net turnover margin against Pittsburgh, they have played 6 straight Unders after playing a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Indy defense remains solid — they rank 5th in the NFL by allowing only 308.9 YPG and they rank in the top half of the league at 13th according to the Football Outsiders DVOA efficiency ratings. They have held four of their last six opponents to 20 points or less. They go back on the road where they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total. They have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range including 4 of their last 5 road games with the Total set in that range. Indianapolis has played 6 straight Unders against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 42 games played in December, 30 of these games finished Under the Total. Dallas has the top-ranked defense using the DVOA analytics. They have held eight of their 11 opponents to 20 points or less with four of their opponents failing to score more than 10 points. They lead the NFL in sacks which likely spells a nightmare for the immobile statue that is the aging Matt Ryan tonight. They held the Giants to just 300 total yards in their Thanksgiving game. They outgained New York by +130 net yards — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after outgaining their previous opponent by +100 or more yards. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Cowboys averaged 6.23 Yards-Per-Play against the Giants — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after averaging 6.0 or more YPP in their last game. Dak Prescott completed 21 of 30 passes for 261 yards in the win — but Dallas has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 or more yards in their last game. They stay at home where they are holding their opponents to 16.8 PPG and 313.5 total YPG — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (475) and the Dallas Cowboys (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-04-22 |
Chargers +2.5 v. Raiders |
Top |
20-27 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (471) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (472). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (6-5) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 25-24 win at Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Las Vegas (4-7) pulled off their second-straight upset — both requiring overtime — in their 40-34 victory at Seattle as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Raiders are clinging to postseason hopes after losing seven of their first nine games this season in what has been a tumultuous first year under head coach Josh McDaniels. Surviving two straight overtimes is likely to be physically and emotionally draining after upsetting Denver on the road two weeks ago — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after pulling off two straight upsets. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning two of their last three games. Las Vegas has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win on the road where they scored 31 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 35 or more points in their last contest. The Raiders gained 576 yards last week against the Seahawks after generating 407 yards against the Broncos two weeks ago — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 400 yards in two straight games. Derek Carr completed 25 of 36 passes for 295 yards with three touchdown passes but two interceptions in the win — but Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. Carr struggles against the Rams with a 1-3 record in his last four starts — and he has been sacked 13 times in those games for a sack rate of one in every 9.6 dropbacks. Furthermore, the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after allowing 30 or more points in their last contest. Las Vegas has the worst defense in the NFL according to the DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher including failing to cover the point spread in seven of those last ten circumstances. Additionally, the Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when favored including five of their last seven games when laying the points. Las Vegas has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in December. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win on the road They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The Chargers were outrushed in the game by -116 net yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after outrushing their last opponent by 100 or more yards. They did enjoy a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. Justin Herbert was exquisite in that game by completing 35 of 47 passes for 274 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions despite still being without wide receiver Mike Williams. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games on the road as an underdog. Furthermore, Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in December — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against divisional rivals.
FINAL TAKE: The Raiders will have revenge on their minds after losing in LA to the Chargers on September 11th by a 24-19 score — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when attempting to avenge a loss and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games when avenging a loss by seven points or less. Los Angeles still remembers losing in Vegas to the Raiders on the last Sunday night of the regular season that cost them a trip to the playoffs last season — but they have still covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played in the Raiders’ home building in Oakland or on the Vegas strip. 25* AFC West Underdog of the Year with the Los Angeles Chargers (471) plus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-01-22 |
Bills v. Patriots UNDER 43.5 |
Top |
24-10 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (301) and the New England Patriots (302). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (8-3) has won six of their last eight games after their 28-25 victory at Detroit as a 10-point favorite on Thanksgiving. New England (6-5) had their three-game winning streak end in a 33-26 loss at Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Buffalo held the Lions to just 326 yards in the victory last week. They will be without Von Miller who is dealing with a knee injury — but their defense is getting healthier with defensive ends Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa along with middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds full participants in practice this week. The Bills have played 6 straight Unders after a straight-up win. And while Buffalo has seen at least 53 combined points scored in three straight games, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing two or more games with 50 or more combined points scored. The Bills have averaged 414.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — but they have played 5 straight Unders after averaging at least 400 YPG in their last three contests. Buffalo scores 28.1 Points-Per-Game and 415.9 YPG — but those numbers drop to 24.7 PPG and 393.4 YPG when playing on the road. The Bills have played 6 straight Unders on the road — and they have played 6 straight Unders as a road favorite. Buffalo’s defense remains elite even without Miller — they rank 3rd in the NFL according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. They have held their last three opponents to 310.0 YPG — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. New England has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total after a point-spread loss. The Patriots have also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. And while they gained 409 total yards against the Vikings, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. New England only gained 45 yards on the ground in that game — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after gaining no more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Patriots' defense is the real deal — they rank 2nd in the league in DVOA and first when weighting those defensive metrics to recent games. They hold their guests to just 15.2 PPG and 264.0 total YPG when playing at home. Additionally, in their last three games, they have held their opponents to only 13.0 PPG and 194.0 total YPG. On the other side of the ball, the Patriots rank just 25th in the NFL in DVOA on offense — ranking 24th with their running game and 22nd with their passing game. To compound matters on that side of the ball, they will be without running back Damien Harris and left tackle Isaiah Wynn. They are only generating 303.0 YPG in their last three games. New England has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total in December.
FINAL TAKE: The Patriots will want to slow this game down by running the football and likely playing two high safeties to dare the Bills to run the football and get out of their passing attack. New England has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against AFC opponents — and the Bills have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against rivals from the AFC. 25* AFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (301) and the New England Patriots (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-28-22 |
Steelers +3 v. Colts |
Top |
24-17 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (275) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (276). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (3-7) has lost three of their last four games after their 37-20 loss to Cincinnati as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Indianapolis (4-6-1) has lost four of their last five games after a 17-16 loss to Philadelphia as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS PLUS THE POINTS: When observing head coaches like Sean McVay endure a terrible season, it is a remarkable achievement for Mike Tomlin that his Steelers teams have not endured a losing record during his previous 15 seasons with the franchise. That accomplishment is at risk this year — but one thing we can rely on is that his teams will always play hard. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the Steelers are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games after allowing at least 30 points including covering the point spread in five of those last six situations. They have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after allowing 35 or more points. They are getting solid play from rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett who completed 25 of 42 passes for 265 yards with one touchdown pass and no interceptions. He is not making many mistakes under center while demonstrating composure and a sense of control that transcends the box score. Running back Najee Harris is heating up as of late as he leads a Pittsburgh rushing attack that has averaged 154 rushing yards per game in their last three contests. Harris has run for 185 yards in the last two games. The Steelers have generated 343.3 total YPG in their last three games which is more than 30 yards above their season average. They have also held their last three opponents to 331.7 YPG which is more than 40 YPG below their season average. After playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road for the next two games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing their last two games at home. Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a loss by six points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a loss at home by three points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread after a loss at home where they covered the point spread as an underdog. This is a bad football team despite their on-face defensive numbers that include them ranking 5th in the NFL by allowing only 307.6 YPG. The DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders rank the Colts' defense as 30th in the league — those analytics measure efficiency to neutralize the slowing down of the clock by running the football which helps Indianapolis’ frontline defensive statistics. The Indy offense ranks 31st using the DVOA numbers including ranking 30th against the pass and 32nd in the run game despite having Jonathan Taylor at running back. The Steelers have a solid run defense that tanks 14th in the league according to DVOA. The Colts are scoring only 14.7 PPG and 273.3 YPG in their last three games. They have a high school head coach running the team in Jeff Saturday. While the team got an initial boost when the former center for Peyton Manning went from owner Jim Irsay’s drinking buddy to head coach in a win over Las Vegas, the honeymoon is over. Every coach in the room knows he will not be back with the team — so morale is a concern for this group moving forward. Saturday posted a 20-16 record coaching for Hebron Christian Academy in Georgia for three seasons.
FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (275) plus the points versus the Indianapolis Colts (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-27-22 |
Packers v. Eagles UNDER 46.5 |
Top |
33-40 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (273) and the Philadelphia Eagles (274). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (4-7) has lost six of their last seven games after their 27-17 upset loss to Tennessee as a 3-point favorite on November 17th. Philadelphia (9-1) rebounded from their first loss of the season by beating the Colts in Indianapolis by a 17-16 score as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Packers managed to generate just 271 yards against the Titans last week. The struggling Green Bay offense has not scored more than 17 points in three of their last four games — and they have not scored more than 22 points in six of their last seven games. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has conceded that he is playing with a broken thumb — but while that may explain how his once immaculate delivery has devolved into a wrist flick motion, his problems go way beyond this season. Even a broken thumb does not explain his bad decision-making — and he continues to struggle to develop chemistry with his wide receiving corps in the Brave New World without Davante Adams. I do not understand why this team simply does not run the ball more (although the deteriorating offensive line has not always made that easy — but they abandon the run too quickly: as Michigan demonstrated yesterday versus Ohio State, sometimes the ground game does not emerge until the second half). After running the ball at least 25 times in three straight games, they only ran the ball 19 times for 56 yards against the Titans. Green Bay has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. And while they allowed Tennessee to generate 6.69 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after giving up 6.69 YPP in their last contest. They go on the road where they are only scoring 15.0 Points-Per-Game and generating 328.8 total Yards-Per-Game. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played all 3 games on the road as an underdog this season Under the Total. Philadelphia has held five of their last six opponents to under 20 points. The Colts gained only 284 total yards against them last week. The Eagles have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after winning a game where they did not cover the point spread. After winning the turnover battle in their first eight games this season, Philly has seen the Regression Gods appear by losing the turnover battle in each of their last two games. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after enduring a -1 net turnover margin in two straight games. The Eagles' offense has taken a step back as of late as they are scoring just 22.3 PPG and 312.7 YPG in their last three games — -4.0 PPG and -57.3 YPG below their season average. But this Philly defense remains elite and is now bolstered on the interior of their defensive line with the acquisitions of Ndamukong Suh and Lineal Joseph. They hold their guests to 18.0 PPG and 285.6 total YPG when playing at home. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total in November.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia has played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road — and Green Bay has played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (273) and the Philadelphia Eagles (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-27-22 |
Bengals -1 v. Titans |
Top |
20-16 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (259) minus the point(s) versus the Tennessee Titans (260). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (6-4) has won four of their last five games after their 37-20 victory at Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday. Tennessee (7-3) has won seven of their last eight games after their 27-17 upset win at Green Bay as a 3-point underdog on November 17th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINT(S): After an 0-2 start to the season, the reigning AFC champions are clicking now even with injuries to skill players on offense. Running back Joe Mixon is not expected to play again this afternoon — but Samaje Perine stepped up with 82 rushing yards and three touchdown receptions against the Steelers. Wide receiver Ja’Mar Chase is questionable but not expected to play as well — but Joe Burrow continues to roll with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd as reliable weapons in the passing game. They have scored 30.7 Points-Per-Game in their last three games. Burrow completed 24 of 39 passes for 355 yards with four touchdown passes last week — and Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last contest. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a point-spread victory. Additionally, while the Bengals surrendered 408 total yards against Pittsburgh, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. Cincinnati’s no-name defense remains underrated under defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo — they are holding their opponents to just 326.7 YPG. The Bengals also thrive in the hidden yards department — they are the least penalized team in the NFL with only 318 penalty yards assessed against them in their ten games. They go on the road where they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games against AFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. Tennessee may be due for a letdown after covering the point spread in eight straight games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after an upset victory by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games after a double-digit upset victory as a road underdog. Ryan Tannehill completed 22 of 27 passes for 333 yards against the Packers — but they are 23-49-2 ATS in their last 74 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. The Titans are eking out low-scoring games despite getting outgained by -54.7 net YPG. At home, they are getting outgained by -28.5 net YPG. Five of their seven victories have been decided by one scoring possession. And while their bend but don’t break defense is allowing only 15.7 PPG in their last three games, they are surrendering 361.0 YPG in those games. Tennessee has the top run defense in the league using the DVOA analytics at Football Outsiders — but they are just 13th against the pass using those metrics which is an ominous sign when facing Burrow. Tennessee is also dealing with a bevy of injuries still with defensive lineman Denico Autry out for this game and many other defensive starters listed as questionable.
FINAL TAKE: Tennessee will want to avenge their 1816 loss at home to the Bengals in the playoffs last season — but this is still not a good matchup for them. Cincinnati averages 271 passing YPG — and the Titans have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games after eight games into the season against teams who are averaging 260 or more passing YPG. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bengals (259) minus the point(s) versus the Tennessee Titans (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-24-22 |
Patriots v. Vikings -2.5 |
Top |
26-33 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (110) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (109). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (8-2) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 40-3 loss at home to Dallas as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. New England (6-4) has won three in a row after a 10-3 win against the New York Jets as a 3.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: In the Report on Dallas last week for our NFL Game of the Month, I leaned heavily on the underwhelming analytics for Minnesota this season despite having only one loss at the time. After getting blown out by 37 points, the Vikings are now being outscored and outgained in yardage this season. But I expect a very strong effort from them tonight to get the bad taste out of their mouths from that game. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 45 of their last 66 games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a double-digit loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 home games after a loss by 21 or more points. And while they trailed at halftime by a 23-3 score, the Vikings have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 43 games at home after not scoring more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. Minnesota only gained 183 total yards in the game while having their offense on the field for just 22:36 minutes of that game — but they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games after not gaining at least 250 yards in their last game. Quarterback Kirk Cousins completed only 12 of 23 passes for 105 yards before getting benched with the game out of hand. The Vikings have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 games after a game where they did not gain at least 150 passing yards in their last game. Now we have a prime-time game with Cousins holding a career 10-18 record as the starter in prime-time games just like this. That said, I do note that Cousins completes 66% of his passes in prime-time with 50 touchdown passes and just 26 interceptions in those 28 prime-time games. The Vikings have a situational edge this week by getting to stay home on a short week — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. New England seemed destined for overtime against the Jets last week before returning a punt for an 84-yard touchdown late in the game to bypass Mac Jones attempt to lead the team on a game-winning drive. Cousins will not have to be great tonight to outduel the Jones-led Patriots’ offense. In their last three games, New England is scoring only 19.3 PPG and 262.7 Yards-Per-Game. The Patriots rank 26th in offense using the DVOA analytics by the Football Outsiders — and they are subpar in both the run and the pass by ranking 24th and 26th in those metrics. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last contest. New England’s defense is keeping them in games — they have allowed 87 combined passing yards in their last two games. But we need to keep in mind that the last two quarterbacks that the Patriots have faced have been Sam Ehlinger and Zach Wilson — and those are two players who have since been benched. The Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in two straight games. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range. Even facing prime-time Cousins is a massive upgrade in talent than what Bill Belichick’s defense has faced in the last two weeks. Minnesota is completing 64% of their passes this season — and the Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 road games against teams who complete at least 64% of their passes.
FINAL TAKE: The flip side of the middling Minnesota analytics is that their two losses this season have come against opponents who entered the week with a combined 16-4 record. New England has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games against teams winning at least 75% of their games. The Patriots are dealing with some injuries on this short week headlined by star left tackle Isaiah Wynn being out for this game. 25* NFL NBC-TV Game of the Month with the Minnesota Vikings (110) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-24-22 |
Giants v. Cowboys UNDER 45.5 |
Top |
20-28 |
Loss |
-107 |
6 h 50 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (107) and the Dallas Cowboys (108). THE SITUATION: New York (7-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 31-18 upset loss to Detroit as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Dallas (7-3) has won three of their last four games after their 40-3 win at Minnesota as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Giants are decimated with injuries — especially on the offensive line. They will be without three starters and a rotational player with Evan Neal, Shane Lemieux, Jon Feliciano, and Joshua Ezeudo all declared out today. Left tackle Andrew Thomas is questionable as well with an illness — but he did take part in limited practice yesterday. New York is also thin at wide receiver with Wan’Dale Robinson out with an injury — and Sterling Shepard already out the season, Kadarius Toney traded to Kansas City, and Kenny Golladay being in the perpetual doghouse. New York is scoring only 18.3 Points-Per-Game in their last three games. The Under is 18-7-1 in their last 26 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. Additionally, the Giants have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Under is also 6-0-1 in their last 7 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. New York did generate 413 yards last week — but the Under is 20-6-1 in their last 27 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They go back on the road where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Dallas held the Vikings to just 183 total yards last week — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. They limited Minnesota to just 110 passing yards — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. The Cowboys have an elite defense that ranks 2nd in the NFL in the DVOA rankings at Football Outsiders. They have held seven of their ten opponents to less than 20 points — and they lead the league with 42 sacks. Daniel Jones is going to have a very difficult time passing the ball with his banged-up offensive line — and Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn can safely stack the box to stop Saquon Barkley given the limitations the Giants will have in the passing game. The Cowboys generated 458 yards of offense last week with Dak Prescott passing for 276 yards. But Dallas has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after outgaining their previous opponent by 150 or more yards. The Cowboys have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last contest. And while Dallas has scored at least 28 points in each of their last three games, they have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring 25 or more points in three straight games. The Cowboys return home where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: This game is a rematch of Dallas’ 23-16 victory in New York as a 1-point underdog on September 26th. The Giants have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total when avenging a same-season loss — and they have played 7 straight Unders when avenging a same-season loss by seven points or less. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (107) and the Dallas Cowboys (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-21-22 |
49ers v. Cardinals UNDER 44 |
Top |
38-10 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (475) and the Arizona Cardinals (476). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (5-4) has won two games in a row after their 22-16 win against the Los Angeles Chargers as an 8.5-point favorite last Sunday. Arizona (4-6) had lost four of five games before their 27-17 upset win in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, Mexico.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers held the Chargers to just 238 yards in the victory last week — and that came after holding the Rams to 223 total yards. San Francisco has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing 250 or more yards in two straight games. They have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The 49ers lead the NFL by allowing just 280.6 total Yards-Per-Game. They hold their opponents to just 16.6 first downs per game — also the best mark in the league. The stout San Francisco defense starts with their ability to stop the run. The Niners hold their opponents to 3.43 Yards-Per-Carry and 82.7 rushing YPG — the lowest marks in the league. They held the Chargers to just 51 rushing yards. San Francisco has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after holding their previous opponent to 90 or fewer rushing yards. The 49ers did rush for 157 yards en route to the 387 total yards they generated against the Chargers. But, frankly, despite their offense loaded with weapons with skill position players getting healthy and the acquisition of Christian McCaffrey, too often head coach Kyle Shanahan dials up gimmicky plays when simple plays do the trick. The Niners have not scored more than 23 points in three of their last four games. Some of that can be explained by Shanahan’s commitment to running the football — and they have held their last two opponents scoreless in the second half. San Francisco has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 straight Unders after rushing for at least 350 yards in their last game. Additionally, San Francisco has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against NFC opponents. Arizona has only covered the point spread once in their last three games — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after covering the point spread just once in their last three games. The Cardinals are riddled with injuries. Colt McCoy gets the start under center with Kyler Murray dealing with a hamstring. I think McCoy is solid — but he lacks Murray’s play-making and scrambling abilities. While he completed 26 of 37 passes last week in the win against the Rams, Arizona only gained 298 total yards in the game. Wide receiver Marquise Brown is still on Injured Reserve and tight end suffered a season-ending knee injury. The offensive line is also a mess with four protected starters from preseason camp not playing tonight. Left tackle D.J. Humphries and center Rodney Hudson have been declared out — and left guard Justin Pugh and right guard Will Hernandez have missed most of the season with injuries. The Cardinals' defense remains solid with stars line J.J. Watt and Budda Baker anchoring the unit. They hold their opponents to only 295.4 YPG when playing on the road. Arizona has played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when favored. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (475) and the Arizona Cardinals (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-20-22 |
Chiefs v. Chargers OVER 49.5 |
Top |
30-27 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (469) and the Los Angeles Chargers (470). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (7-2) has won five of their last six games after a 27-17 win against Jacksonville as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (5-4) has lost two of their last three games after a 22-16 loss at San Francisco as an 8.5-point underdog last Sunday night.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs generated 486 total yards last week in their double-digit win against the Jaguars. They are scoring 30.3 Points-Per-Game and generating 504.7 Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests despite some injuries in their wide receiver corps. Patrick Mahomes will be without JuJu Smith-Shuster and Mecole Hardman due to injuries — but Marquez Valdes-Scantling returns to the field tonight and they acquired Kadarius Toney from the Giants at the trade deadline who should get plenty of reps tonight. And, of course, there is nothing wrong with Travis Kelce. Mahomes has seamlessly led the transition of this offense to one that is more balanced since they traded away Tyreek Hill in the offseason. They have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win at home by double-digits. Led by Isiah Pacheco’s 82 yards on 16 carries, the Chiefs churned out 155 rushing yards last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The rookie from Rutgers has taken over the starting tailback job and he is poised for a big game against this Chargers defense that allows 5.3 Yards-Per-Carry and has surrendered 191 rushing YPG in their last three games. Kansas City has played two straight Unders — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing two straight Unders. The Chiefs running the football should make their offense even more dynamic since it will open up more opportunities in the passing game. I do worry about this KC offense when they become too pass-reliant. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring 36.5 PPG — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against AFC West rivals. Los Angeles has played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. They have also played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a loss by six points or less. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games. Quarterback Justin Herbert does hope to get his top two wide receivers back tonight after Mike Williams and Keenan Allen have practiced this week after missing multiple games apiece to injury. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Chargers have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total against AFC rivals.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas City and Los Angeles are completing 65.5% and 66.4% of their passes this season. The Chiefs have played 6 straight Overs on the road against opponents that are completing 64% or more of their passes — and the Chargers have played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total against opponents that are completing 66.4% or more of their passes. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (469) and the Los Angeles Chargers (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-20-22 |
Cowboys -1 v. Vikings |
Top |
40-3 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (471) minus the point(s) versus the Minnesota Vikings (472). THE SITUATION: Dallas (6-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped on Sunday in a 31-28 upset loss in overtime as a 4-point favorite. Minnesota (8-1) is on a seven-game winning streak after their 33-30 upset win in overtime at Buffalo as a 6.5-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINT(S): Many observers have expressed surprise that the Vikings are home underdogs in this game. Well, the laptops don’t think their 8-1 record corresponds with their underlying numbers. The analytics at Football Outsiders ranks Minnesota as the 17th-best team in the league — ranking a middling 17th on offense and 19th on defense. This is a team that is solid but not spectacular in an area — their run offense ranks 10th in the league using the Football Outsiders DVOA metrics which is their best specific showing. They rank in the teens in Passing Offense, Run Defense, and Pass Defense. They are just 25th in Special Teams DVOA. They are getting outgained in yardage by -25.3 net Yards-Per-Game. All seven of their wins during this winning streak have been by one scoring possession. If they win four of those seven games, then no one bats an eye if a 5-4 team is a home dog to a 6-3 road team. The Vikings were very fortunate to leave Buffalo with a victory last week — it required Josh Allen red zone interceptions, Sean McDermott bypassing chip shot field goals on 4th downs, the Bills’ lacking a four-minute offense, and a miracle fumble recovery on the Buffalo goal line with less than a minute to go. Minnesota may be due for an emotional letdown after that huge comeback victory. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by six points or less. They did surrender 486 yards in that game with 175 of those yards coming on the ground. The Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after allowing 350 or more yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing 150 or more rushing yards. And while Kirk Cousins completed 30 of 50 passes for 357 yards, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after passing for 250 or more yards. Cousins has a 2-8 record against Dallas in his career. The Vikings are also dealing with some injuries on defense with defensive end Dalvin Tomlinson out and linebacker Za’Darius Smith questionable with a knee. Dallas, on the other hand, ranks 4th in the NFL using the DVOA metrics with the 2nd best rushing attack and the 4th best pass defense. The Cowboys have rebounded to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by six points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. They did gain 421 yards against the Packers' defense — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after gaining 350 or more yards in their last game. Dallas has averaged 431.5 Yards-Per-Game in their last two contests. And while they gave up 415 yards last week, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after giving up 350 or more yards — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. The Cowboys lead the league with 35 sacks — and Cousins is notorious for struggling if he is under duress. Dallas is staying on the road where they are outscoring and outgaining their home hosts — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 4 straight road games with the Total set in the 45.5-49 point range. Furthermore, Dallas has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on the road when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games against NFC opponents — and the Vikings are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against conference rivals. The books will likely be vindicated for treating Minnesota as closer to a .500 team this afternoon. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (471) minus the point(s) versus the Minnesota Vikings (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-17-22 |
Titans +3.5 v. Packers |
Top |
27-17 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tennessee Titans (311) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (312). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (6-3) has won six of their last seven games after their 17-10 win at home against Denver as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Green Bay (4-6) snapped a five-game losing streak with their 31-28 upset win in overtime against Dallas as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE TITANS PLUS THE POINTS: Tennessee will be without four starters tonight (one being their kicker Randy Bullock) — but I am comfortable endorsing them after getting confirmation at noon PM ET from the reports that Jeffery Simmons is expected to take the field. Simmons is their criminally-underrated defensive tackle that anchors their defense that the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders rank as the best against the run in the NFL. Simmons is listed as questionable with an ankle injury and only took part in limited practice on Tuesday — but he has not practiced for weeks but has still played at a high level in their last two games against Kansas City and then the Broncos. I suspected Simmons would play — but on a short week, I wanted further confirmation from the Thursday reports. The Titans expect quarterback Ryan Tannehill to again play tonight after he completed 19 of 36 passes for 255 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions on Sunday. The only loss for Tennessee since September 19th was their 20-17 overtime loss at Kansas City when they had to use rookie Malik Willis under center. The Titans controlled the tempo of that game — 5th-year head coach Mike Vrabel is one of the best in the business in preparing his team to impose their will on their opponent. Tennessee knows who they are and what they want to do — and it all starts with running back Derrick Henry who is playing at a very high level right now. Henry only gained 53 rushing yards on 19 carries against Denver — but that was the first time in his last six games that he did not rush for at least 102 yards. In his last six contests, he has gained 731 yards on the ground with seven rushing touchdowns and a 4.9 Yards-Per-Carry average. With his lighter workload on Sunday, he should be ready for a big performance tonight against a Packers defense now playing with Rashan Gary who suffered a season-ending torn ACL. Green Bay has been one of the worst defensive teams against the rush all season (even with Gary in the front seven). They have the worst run defense in the NFL according to the DVOA analytics. They rank 28th in the league by allowing their opponents to average 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry. It has been even worse for the Packers when playing at home as they rank second-to-last in the NFL by allowing 5.5 YPC and a whopping 171.3 rushing YPG. The Titans’ ability to run puts their defense in a position to better succeed — they have not allowed more than 17 points in five of their last six games (with the Chiefs’ field goal in overtime being the lone exception during that span). Tennessee has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread victory. The Titans have covered the point spread in seven straight games. While some bettors and handicappers may feel that is evidence of them being due for a letdown, that sounds like the gambler’s fallacy to me. The counter-take is that Tennessee remains undervalued by the betting market given their less-than-glamorous formula for success. When it comes to evidence, Tennessee has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread in four straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after covering the point spread in five straight games. This is what this team does when they get on a roll under Vrabel’s leadership. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after the first month of the season. Green Bay seems more likely to be vulnerable for a letdown after the highly emotional victory against the Cowboys in the Mike McCarthy versus Aaron Rodgers Bowl last week. Playing on a short week only compounds that matter. As it is, the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Green Bay found success by finally committing to running the ball for a full game. Rodgers only passed the ball 20 times — and they ran the ball 39 times for 207 rushing yards. For context, the previous fewest pass attempts that the Packers have had in a game was back in September when Rodgers threw the ball 25 times while handing the ball off 38 times — although many of those rushes came in the second half after they took a double-digit lead. Green Bay had success running against a Cowboys defense that got torched for 240 rushing yards by the Bears the previous week. It will be much harder to run the ball with success against this Titans defense (with Simmons in the middle) — especially if left tackle David Bakhtiari and/or right tackle Elton Jenkins are not at 100% or not able to play. Both tackles are listed as questionable for tonight after dealing with injuries all season — so playing on the short week is not a given. The Packers surrendered 421 yards in the victory — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after allowing 350 or more yards in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Besides Gary, Green Bay will also be without linebacker De’Vondre Campbell who is out with a knee injury. The Packers' defense has been a disappointment this season — they rank 17th in the NFL according to the DVOA analytics. Green Bay has given up at least 23 or more points in six of their last seven games (and seven of their ten this season). 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month with the Tennessee Titans (311) plus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-14-22 |
Commanders +11 v. Eagles |
Top |
32-21 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Washington Commanders (265) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (266). THE SITUATION: Washington (4-5) had their three-game winning streak snapped last Sunday in a 20-17 loss to Minnesota as a 3-point underdog. Philadelphia (8-0) remained unbeaten after their 29-17 win at Houston as a 14-point favorite for Thursday Night Football on November 3rd.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COMMANDERS PLUS THE POINTS: If it is after Halloween, then Ron Rivera has his Washington team starting to click. The Commanders started 1-5 in 2020 before winning six of their last ten games to win the NFC East and make the playoffs. Last year, Washington started the season 2-6 before closing out the year by winning five of their last nine games. The Commanders lost four of their first five games this season — but they have won three of four and just played the one-loss Vikings well in a narrow loss last week. Washington is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record with Rivera as their head coach. It starts with the play of their defense. Even with defensive end Chase Young still out with an injury, the Commanders boast one of the best defensive lines in the league with Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne at defensive tackle and Montez Sweat at defensive end. Those are all first-round picks with both tackles products of Alabama and Sweat a former star at Mississippi State. Washington has held their last five opponents to 17.0 Points-Per-Game with no team scoring more than 21 points. They have held four of their last five opponents to no more than 324 yards — and they have held their last three opponents to 285.7 total YPG. Furthermore, the return of rookie running back Brian Robinson who missed the start of the season after being the victim of a shooting in the preseason. He ran the ball 13 times for 44 yards last week — and while those are not spectacular numbers, his presence opens up other options for the offense with Antonio Gibson who does have to then be the bell-cow running back. Additionally, Taylor Heinicke may be an upgrade at quarterback over Carson Wentz. He gives the team a spark. He is quicker to distribute the football than Wentz who takes too many sacks and melts under pressure. Heinicke is completing 63.0% of his passes for 629 passing yards in three starts with five touchdowns and three interceptions. Last year in 15 starts (16 games), he completed 65% of his passes last year while throwing for 3419 passing yards last season with 20 touchdowns and 15 interceptions while adding 313 rushing yards. Heinicke has a great connection with wide receiver Terry McClaurin who has been targeted at least eight times in each of his three starts for 16 receptions and 242 receiving yards. Heinicke is a solid game manager who avoids the trouble that buries Wentz — and this team has weapons with an energized McClaurin along with Robinson and Gibson out of the backfield. The defense will keep them in games. Washington has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a point spread win. And while they outrushed the Vikings by 81 net yards, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after outrushing their last opponent by 75 or more yards. The defensive metrics at Football Outsiders rank the Commanders as the second-best run defense in the league. Philadelphia is averaging 391.0 total YPG — but Washington has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams generating at least 350 YPG. The Eagles are completing 68% of their passes behind quarterback Jalen Hurts — but the Commanders have covered the point spread in 36 of their last 55 games in the second half of the season against teams completing at least 64% of their passes including eight of those last eleven circumstances. And while Philly controls the ball for 32:14 minutes per game, Washington has covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams who control time of possession for at least 32 minutes per game. Philadelphia gained 360 yards in their win against the Texans last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. They held Houston to just 135 passing yards in that game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. The Eagles are playing great — but one of their keys to success has been dominating the turnover battle which can be fickle as the season moves on. Philly has only committed three turnovers this season while enjoying a league-leading +15 net turnover margin. Now they host a Washington team that has only committed three turnovers in their last four games — and they have forced six turnovers during that stretch. The Eagles are vulnerable. They rank 27th in run defense according to the DVOA metrics. And while they are averaging 391.0 YPG, that mark has dropped by almost 50 YPG in their last three games as they have averaged only 343.0 YPG in those three contests. Philadelphia ranks only 27th in Special Teams DVOA — and the Commanders rank 7th in the league in Special Teams DVOA. Washington is allowing 5.7 Yards-Per-Play — and the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 5.6 or more YPP. Philly has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games against NFC East rivals.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Eagles’ 24-8 victory at Washington on September 25th. Wentz was under center in that game — and he was awful. Robinson had yet to be medically cleared at that point of the season. But what was most interesting in that contest was that after the Eagles scored 24 points in the second quarter, the Commanders held them scoreless in the second half. Look for an even better defensive game plan in this rematch against the heavy RPO offense that Philadelphia deploys. Defending the run-pass option requires the defensive players to embrace assignment football — and that is something that can be initially uncomfortable for players trained to attack the football. Washington did a great job in stopping the run in that game with the Eagles only gaining 72 rushing yards on 30 carries. But Hurts torched them in the passing game for 340 yards with 169 of those yards going to DeVonta Smith. Rivera and defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio will have an effective rebuttal tonight. The Commanders have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 3 straight games when playing with revenge from a loss where they did not score more than 14 points. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Washington Commanders (265) plus the points versus the Philadelphia Eagles (266). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-13-22 |
Chargers +7.5 v. 49ers |
Top |
16-22 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (263) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (264). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (5-3) has won four of their last five games after their 20-17 win at Atlanta as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. San Francisco (4-4) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 31-14 upset win at Los Angeles against the Rams as a 1-point underdog on October 30th.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles is riddled with injuries on both sides of the ball — Joey Bosa and J.C. Jackson headline the players missing on defense while the offense is without wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. But the team is still winning with Justin Herbert finding a way to win games. Herbert has found a new reliable receiver in second-year pro Joshua Palmer who he has targeted 22 times in the last two weeks for 17 receptions and 163 receiving yards. Palmer was a third-round pick last year from Tennessee. Running back Austin Ekeler had an off day in the victory in Atlanta as he only had 71 total yards on 21 touches. But Ekeler had been doing everything for this team in the previous three weeks given the attrition at wide receiver — he has 240 rushing yards and another 169 receiving yards with four touchdowns from 65 touches in the previous three games. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games on the road. And while they gave up 201 rushing yards to the Falcons' run-first offense, they have then covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last game. Despite the injuries at wide receiver, Herbert has completed at least 30 passes in three straight games. He has thrown the ball at least 40 times in each of their last three games — and the Chargers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after attempting at least 40 passes in two straight games. The defense has played better lately as they have held their last three opponents to 23.3 Points-Per-Game and 325.7 total Yards-Per-Game. Los Angeles ranks 10th in the league in defending the pass according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. The Chargers have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on the road. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. San Francisco is dealing with plenty of injuries of their own — especially on defense. The 49ers' secondary is without Emmanuel Moseley and Jason Verrett for the rest of the season — but the issues on their defensive line might be even worse. San Francisco will be without defensive tackles Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw tonight (after already being without defensive tackle Maurice Hurst for the season) along with defensive end Samson Ebukam. The Niners still have Nick Bosa — but those are three starters on the defensive line they will be without which changes the dynamic for a unit that was ranked 4th in the league in run defense using DVOA. The 49ers have allowed 28.7 PPG and 347.0 YPG in their last three games — much higher than the 18.4 PPG and 285.9 total YPG they are giving up for the season. San Francisco has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. They return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Chargers are allowing 25.8 PPG this season — but the 49errs have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against opponents who are allowing at least 24 PPG. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (263) plus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-10-22 |
Falcons v. Panthers UNDER 44 |
Top |
15-25 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (113) and the Carolina Panthers (114). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (4-5) has lost two of their last three games after a 20-17 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Carolina (2-7) has lost five of their last six games after a 42-21 loss at Cincinnati as a 7-point on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Falcons only managed 315 total yards last week in their loss to the Chargers. They are a run-first team under second-year head coach Arthur Smith — they are running the football on 61% of their offensive plays from scrimmage. This focus on running the football burns time off the clock and helps the Atlanta defense — they only allowed 336 total yards to the Justin Herbert-led offense. The Falcons rushed for 201 yards last week. They have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game — and they have played 15 of their last 20 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last contest. Atlanta has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point-spread loss. The Falcons are allowing 450.3 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — but they have then played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing 450 or more YPG in their last three contests. Atlanta ranks 8th in efficiency on offense according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders — but they are only averaging 280.5 total YPG in their four road games which is resulting in just 21.5 Points-Per-Game. The Falcons have played 33 of their last 45 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 7 straight Unders in Weeks 10-13. They have also played 6 straight Unders playing on Thursday Night Football. Carolina only managed 228 yards last week in their loss to the Bengals. The Panthers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last contest. Carolina caught an angry Bengals team that got embarrassed on Monday Night Football by Cleveland. And while the Panthers traded away Christian McCaffrey, they did not unload their valuable assets on defense like defensive end Brian Burns. Carolina allows only 21.2 PPG when playing at home — but they are scoring just 19.6 PPG and generating a mere 285.0 total YPG. They have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home as an underdog. Former Arizona Cardinals head coach Steve Wilks is the team’s interim head coach after Matt Rhule was fired on October 10th — and his teams have played 7 straight Unders when playing at home against conference rivals. The Panthers have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against NFC South divisional rivals.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 13-5-1 in the last 19 meetings between these two teams — and the Under is 15-5-2 in the last 22 games between these teams when they are playing in Carolina. 25* NFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (113) and the Carolina Panthers (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-06-22 |
Titans v. Chiefs UNDER 46.5 |
Top |
17-20 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (471) and the Kansas City Chiefs (472). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (5-2) has won five straight games after their 17-10 upset win at Houston as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (5-2) has won three of their last four games after their 44-23 win at San Francisco as a 1-point favorite two weeks ago.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We won’t know who the starting quarterback for the Titans will be until kickoff with Ryan Tannehill a game-time decision with his high ankle injury. If Tannehill cannot go, then it will be rookie Malik Willis under center. Frankly, both options are limited in the passing game, especially given the lack of reliable weapons the team has at wide receiver. It will be the Derrick Henry Show tonight for the Titans, especially since running the football will burn the clock and keep Patrick Mahomes off the field. Tennessee has played 6 straight Unders after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a point spread victory. Led by Henry’s 219 rushing yards last week with Willis as the starting quarterback, the Titans generated 354 total yards while having their offense on the field for 34:48 minutes of that game. Tennessee has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Willis only passed 55 yards last week on 10 attempts — but the Titans have played 18 of their last 27 games Over the Total after not passing for at least 100 yards in their last game. They held the Texans to just 43 rushing yards — and they have played 4 straight Overs after not allowing more than 50 rushing yards in their last contest. Tennessee has played four straight Unders — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders. The Under is 12-3-1 in Kansas City’s last 16 games after their bye week. Mahomes passed for 423 yards while leading an attack that generated 529 yards of offense. But the Chiefs have played 4 straight Unders after gaining at least 500 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. And while Kansas City has passed for at least 265 yards in three straight games, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in three straight games. The Chiefs return home where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Kansas City has played 38 of their last 58 home games Under the Total when laying 7.5 to 14 points — and they have played 14 of their last 18 home games Under the Total as a 10.5 to 14-point favorite. They have also played 4 of their last 6 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49-point range.
FINAL TAKE: I am not going to be surprised if the Chiefs exceed their 24 rush attempts per game average tonight — one way to neutralize the Titans’ rushing attack which wants to wear down your defense is to run the ball more yourself to fight back on the time of possession game. Kansas City is only averaging 25.7 Points-Per-Game at home this year with them playing more Unders. The Chiefs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against fellow AFC foes. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (471) and the Kansas City Chiefs (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-06-22 |
Packers v. Lions OVER 49 |
Top |
9-15 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (459) and the Detroit Lions (460). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (3-5) has lost four games in a row after their 27-17 loss at Buffalo as a 10.5-point underdog last Sunday. Detroit (1-6) has lost five games in a row after their 31-27 loss to Miami as a 3.5-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Packers may have finally embraced the approach on offense that should give them success moving forward in the second half against the Bills. Green Bay ran the ball in the second half of that game — and that helped them generate 398 yards of offense against a stout Buffalo defense. The Packers trailed at halftime by a 24-7 score — and they have played 17 of their last 23 games Over the Total after playing a game where they allowed at least 24 points in the first half. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point-spread loss. They stay on the road where they have played 16 of their last 21 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record at home. They have also played 6 straight Overs against teams with a losing record. While the sputtering Packers’ offense has received most of the attention, their defense has been a disappointment as well. Green Bay ranks 22nd in the NFL in Defensive DVOA using the metrics at Football Outsiders. They are giving up 25.7 Points-Per-Game in their last three games. Surprisingly, the Packers' offense ranks 8th best in the league in Offensive DVOA. Nothing beats playing the Lions to help a team’s offensive numbers. Detroit is last in Defensive DVOA — and they are 30th against the run and last in the league against the pass using those analytics. They are giving up 32.1 PPG and 421.3 total Yards-Per-Game. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 28 of their last 40 home games Over the Total after four games in a row. They did gain 393 yards against the Dolphins last week — and quarterback Jared Goff completed 27 of 37 passes for 321 yards. Goff plays much better at home — Detroit averages 281 passing YPG. The Lions have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. Detroit is scoring 35.8 PPG and generating 431.0 YPG at home at Ford Field. Detroit has been dealing with injuries — but they do get running back D’Andre Swift back for this game and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is back in the mix. But the Lions are surrendering 36.0 PPG and 470.5 YPG in their four home games. Detroit has played 20 of their last 27 games at home Over the Total. They have also played 11 of their last 13 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, the Lions have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against NFC opponents.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played two shootouts last season where 67 and 52 combined points were scored. Green Bay and Detroit have played 9 of their last 13 meetings against each other Over the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing at Ford Field. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Green Bay Packers (459) and the Detroit Lions (460). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-03-22 |
Eagles v. Texans UNDER 45.5 |
Top |
29-17 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 38 m |
Show
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At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (309) and the Houston Texans (310). THE SITUATION: The Philadelphia Eagles (7-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 35-13 victory against Pittsburgh as an 11-point favorite last Sunday. Houston (1-5-1) has lost five of their last six games after a 17-10 loss to Tennessee on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles held the Steelers to just 300 total yards last week -- they are tied for 3rd in the NFL by holding their opponents to just 298.1 total Yards-Per-Game. They have not allowed more than 21 points in six of their seven games — and they have held five of their seven opponents to 17 points or less. Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total after a double-digit victory. Additionally, the Eagles have played a decisive 57 of their last 81 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have played 38 of their last 57 games Under the Total after scoring at least 35 points in their last contest. Now after playing their last two games at home, Philly goes back on the road where they are generating 342.0 total YPG which is over 50 YPG below their season average. The Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 12 of their last 17 road games Under the Total with the number in the 42.5 to 49-point range. Houston only generated 71 yards before their final drive last week against Tennessee when they accumulated 90 of their 161 total yards in that game. Even at full strength, the Texans' offense is anemic as they score only 16.6 PPG and generate 288.7 YPG, ranking 29th and 31st in the league. The Offensive DVOA metrics used by Football Outsiders rank Houston as the second-worst offense in the league. Quarterback Davis Mills has not registered a Quarterback Rating of 100 or higher in any of his starts this season. He will be missing his weapons in the passing game with Nico Collins out with a groin injury and Brandin Cooks seemingly uninterested in playing after hoping he would get moved at the trade deadline. He was dealing with an injury — but he has not practiced the last two days because of an issue listed as personal. This leaves Mills to have to rely mostly on dink-and-dunk check downs in the passing game. Rex Burkhead and Dameon Pierce have combined to catch 44 balls on 55 targets for 223 yards — but they are only averaging 5.1 yards-per-catch and 4.1 yards-per-attempt. The Texans managed only 118 net yards in the passing game last week — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing a game where they did not pass for more than 150 yards. On the other side of the ball, the Houston defense has been solid. They are holding their opponents to 22.0 PPG. They have held five of their seven opponents to 23 points or less — and they have played held four of those seven opponents to 20 points or less.
FINAL TAKE: The Texans have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in November — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (309) and the Houston Texans (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-31-22 |
Bengals v. Browns UNDER 47.5 |
Top |
13-32 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 46 m |
Show
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At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (277) and the Cleveland Browns (278). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (4-3) has won four of their last five games after their 35-17 win against Atlanta as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. Cleveland (23-20) looks to snap a four-game losing streak after their 23-20 loss at Baltimore as a 6.5-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cincinnati defense may be the most underrated unit on both sides of the ball (and special teams) in the NFL. They held the Falcons to just 214 total yards in their victory last week. They are 5th in the league by holding their opponents to 5.92 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. They are limiting their opponents to a Red Zone conversion rate of just 38.9% — and they have stopped six of the seven 4th down plays of their opponents. The Bengals are the only team in the NFL to not allow a touchdown in the second half. They have not allowed more than 19 points in four of their last five games. This may not be the best defense in the league — but they are right up there. They rank 5th in the NFL using the Defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. Cincinnati has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while the Bengals generated 537 total yards against the Falcons, they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest (and now they will be without star wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase for four to six weeks given his hip injury). Cincinnati is struggling to run the football — they have only rushed for 75 and 78 yards in their last two games. They have played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total after not rushing for more than 90 yards in their last game — and they have played 10 straight Unders after not rushing for more than 100 yards in two straight games. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring only 22.8 Points-Per-Game while averaging just 305.8 Yards-Per-Game. The Bengals have played 12 of their last 15 road games Under the Total — and the Under is 19-6-1 in their last 26 games on the road against teams with a losing record at home. They have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points. Cleveland held the Ravens to only 254 yards in their loss last week. Turnovers are killing this team as they have lost the turnover battle in each of their games in their current four-game losing streak. The Browns have played 27 of their last 39 home games Under the Total after a -1 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games — and they have played 13 of their last 17 home games Under the Total after a -1 or worse net turnover margin in three straight games. Cleveland has played 44 of their last 67 games Under the Total when they have lost four or more in a row — and they have played 4 straight Unders after losing four or five of their last six games. The Browns have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football.
FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati has played 8 straight Unders against AFC opponents. The Under is 7-1-1 in their last 9 games between these teams — and the Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games played in Cleveland. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (277) and the Cleveland Browns (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-30-22 |
Packers v. Bills -10 |
Top |
17-27 |
Push |
0 |
4 h 56 m |
Show
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At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (276) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (275). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (5-1) has won three games in a row after their 24-20 win at Kansas City two Sundays ago as a 2.5-point favorite. Green Bay (3-4) has lost three games in a row after their 23-21 upset loss as a 4-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: I generally do not like to lay double-digits in the NFL (although sometimes it is appropriate). I know what happens if Green Bay covers: they finally run the ball more, they play more two RB sets with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, they use more two tight end sets and play heavy, etc). Frankly, it seems as if Aaron Rodgers is resisting these moves (see his audibles on the one-yard line in the game in London against the Giants). Head coach Matt LaFleur lacks the gravitas to overrule Rodgers’ preferences when it comes to game-planning. Rodgers is working very hard to let everyone know how his team (and the world) continue to let him down. In the meantime, he misses open receivers, freezes out receivers, and throws too many lazy passes because the play is not developing to his delicate standards. Cue: eye roll. Even if the Packers started investing in the tactics I mentioned above, I don’t think they can successfully execute them against this Bills juggernaut. Buffalo has the best-run defense in the league according to the advanced DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. The underperforming offensive line is dealing with injuries to Davi Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins questionable and likely not near 100% effectiveness. Rodgers is without his pet receivers Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb for this game who are both out with injuries. Rodgers is dealing with a thumb injury that he will make sure to grab after he makes another bad mental decision — he did not practice on Wednesday with an inexperienced group of wide receivers that he needs every moment of preparation time with nurturing. The 4.2 air yards Rodgers is averaging per completion is the lowest in the NFL. The Packers are converting just 25% of their 3rd downs in their last three games. If there was a switch that Rodgers could simply flip with this challenge, why did he not do it after the upset loss against the Giants? Or the next week in the upset loss against the Jets (when I still thought they could Get Smart)? The loss to the Commanders last week just seemed like the evidence of what this team now is. I still thought the Packers would win the NFC North even after the loss of Davante Adams — but besides the decline of the offensive line and the lack of creativity using their two excellent running backs, the defense has regressed significantly. The Packers rank 25th in the NFL in Defensive DVOA. Maybe — even after all this — Green Bay steps up if they were playing at home at Lambeau. But they are on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games. They gave up 364 total yards to the Taylor Heinicke-led Commanders last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after alloying 350 total yards in their last game. Furthermore, Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. To make matters worse: they are catching Buffalo almost completely healthy, rested, and off a bye. The Bills may have the best roster depth in the league — and only defensive tackle Spencer Brown is injured so David Quessenberry, a starter for Tennessee last season, seamlessly steps in. Buffalo is 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games after a bye week. After their statement win against Kansas City, they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up win. They are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games at home — and they are 10-1-2 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. And guess what? This is just their third game at home this season after beating their previous two opponents at home by an average score of 39.5-5.0 with the Bills generating 483.0 Yards-Per-Game.
FINAL TAKE: I can live with myself losing a 25* play on Buffalo tonight; however, I would be apoplectic if I followed the "sharp" play and took Green Bay, and then they got buried. That litmus test is usually effective for me. Rodgers has never been a bigger underdog in his career before tonight. He might relish in a blowout loss to let his coach and management know: “I told ya so!” (I have no idea what the “told ya” means …). 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Buffalo Bills (276) minus the points versus the Green Bay Packers (275). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-30-22 |
Giants v. Seahawks -2.5 |
Top |
13-27 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (270) minus the points versus the New York Giants (269). THE SITUATION: Seattle (4-3) has won three of their last four games after their 37-23 upset win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 5.5-point underdog last Sunday. New York (6-1) is on a four-game winning streak with their 23-17 upset win at Jacksonville last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: These are two similar teams overachieving preseason expectations. Both teams coming off multiple upset victories and now have resumes that include them getting outgained in yardage on the season. I suspect it is the Giants’ bubble that gets burst with the challenging trip out west to play in Lumen Field and their “12th man” with the fans. All six of the Giants’ victories have been by one scoring possession including near-miracle finishes against Tennessee, Green Bay, and Baltimore. Rookie head coach Brian Daboll is doing a fantastic job in game managing — and he has Daniel Jones operating as a junior Josh Allen. But the offense lacks a vertical passing threat. After the season-ending injury to Sterling Shepard, the trade to Kadarius Toney earlier this week, and Kenny Golladay in the dog house, the Giants starting wide receivers are Darius Slayton and rookie slot receiver Wan’Dale Robinson. Rookie tight end Daniel Bollinger is out with an injury for this game. The Giants' offensive line will also be missing rookie right tackle, Evan Neal, along with Ben Bredesen. New York is last in the NFL with only seven pass plays of more than 20 yards — the second-lowest mark in the league is then 14 pass plays of 20 or more yards. But the biggest difference between these two teams is on defense. Despite defensive coordinator Don Martindale’s blitz-heavy clever schemes, the Giants rank 29th in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ Defensive DVOA metrics. They rank 30th in Run Defense using those metrics — and they are last in the league by allowing 5.7 Yards-Per-Carry. The Pass Defense ranks 26th in DVOA — and they have registered only one interception this season. The defensive woes start on first down where they are allowing 6.7 Yards-Per-Carry and 8.9 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. New York has registered three straight upsets with their last two wins against the Ravens and Jaguars finishing Under the Total — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after playing two straight Unders. Seattle has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 home games after playing a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. The Seahawks may have the Offensive Rookie of the Year in Kenneth Walker who offers the team an explosive weapon in the backfield since he took over as the bell-cow back after the injury to Rashaad Penny. Walker helped Seattle run for 214 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last contest. Quarterback Geno Smith is poised to win the Comeback Player of the Year award as now a season-veteran who has learned his craft after playing behind Philip Rivers and Russell Wilson for years. Talent was never the issue for this former first-round draft pick. Offensive coordinator Shane Waldron has done a great job with him. On first downs, Smith is completing 81.5% of his passes while averaging 8.5 Yards-Per-Attempt. On third downs needing at least seven yards, he has completed 17 of 22 passes (77.3%). After both D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett were on the injured list this week, it appears both will take the field today. The Seahawks rank 3rd in the NFL in Offensive DVOA. On defense, they are middle of the road — ranking 19th in Defensive DVOA and 17th against the run (both marks higher than the Giants). Overall, Seattle ranks 7th in overall DVOA versus New York ranking 14th (for what that is worth).
FINAL TAKE: Home field should make the difference in this game where the Seahawks have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. 25* NFC Favorite of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (270) minus the points versus the New York Giants (269). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-22 |
Ravens v. Bucs +1.5 |
Top |
27-22 |
Loss |
-108 |
9 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (102) minus (or plus) the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (101). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (3-4) has lost four of their last five games after their 21-3 upset loss at Carolina as a 13-point favorite on Sunday. Baltimore (4-3) has won two of their last three games with their 23-20 win against Cleveland as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: What is going on with Tampa Bay — and can they pick themselves off the mat at this point? They have been ravaged by injuries on both sides of the ball. The offensive line remains a mess and the defensive backfield is banged up — but quarterback Tom Brady at least has Mike Evans and Chris Godwin back. The team misses left guard Ali Marpet who retired in the offseason and linebacker Jason Pierre-Paul who signed with the Ravens as a free agent. The quality of the roster has declined since their Super Bowl victory in 2020. Brady seems distracted with his divorce and desire to attend Robert Kraft weddings. Despite their losing record, the analytics at Football Outsiders still rank Tampa Bay as the 8th-best team in their overall DVOA ratings. They are outgaining their opponents by +22.5 net Yards-Per-Game. I think much of what is going on is simply malaise. The team started strong — despite the injuries — with victories at Dallas and New Orleans. They lost a low-scoring game at home to Green Bay. They lost at home to Kansas City after falling behind the eight-ball early by fumbling the opening kickoff. They rebounded by beating a feisty Atlanta team at home, raising their record to 3-2. They then traveled to Pittsburgh with their rookie quarterback as a 9.5-point favorite — two days after Brady attends the Kraft wedding — and they play flat in a 16-10 upset loss. They stay on the road to play at Carolina as a nearly two-touchdown favorite against a tanking Panthers team who just traded Christian McCaffrey and who were using P.J. Walker at quarterback — and they lacked energy in that embarrassing loss. Evans dropped an early touchdown pass that might have changed the tone of that game. Now after two bad upset losses, I suspect the Buccaneers rally around each other on the short week with the challenge of hosting a good Ravens team. I like how Brady is responding to the adversity by showing positive leadership toward his teammates. He does not show dramatic signs of decline like some of the other older guard of quarterbacks. He is completing 66.9% of his passes while averaging 277.4 passing YPG. His eight touchdown passes are low — but he has only thrown one interception this season. The Tampa Bay passing attack ranks 10th in the Football Outsiders DVOA rankings. So, I think the Buccaneers can continue their team trend of covering the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after getting upset on the road as a favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a double-digit loss as a road favorite. They are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. The Bucs have lost two of their three games at home — but they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games at home. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The defense remains stout — ranking 5th in Defensive DVOA with top-11 marks in run defense and pass defense. In their last three games, they have held their opponents to 18.7 PPG and 293.3 total YPG. Baltimore is dealing with attrition as well with defensive end Calais Campbell out with an illness and several other starters questionable going into tonight. Perhaps left tackle Ronnie Stanley along with both starting cornerbacks Marlon Humphries and Marcus Peters all play tonight — but how effective will they be with their injuries and can they play the entire game? The Ravens outlasted the Browns despite getting outgained by a 336 to 254 yardage margin. They are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after a win at home. Baltimore is only one of two teams to hold double-digit leads in all their games — but why have they blown those big leads in three of their games? They are getting outgained by -20.1 net YPG. The Ravens rank 23rd in run defense by DVOA — so perhaps this is the opponent that Tampa Bay can get Leonard Fournette going with their ground game. Baltimore has allowed four of their last five opponents to rush for at least 101 yards. The Ravens have not scored more than 23 points in four straight games — and they are averaging only 328.3 total YPG in their last three contests. The passing game has not been as effective with the team failing to gain more than 195 yards in the air in four straight games. Statistically, there was a correlation between Lamar Jackson putting up bigger numbers with Rashod Bateman being healthy and on the field. Bateman was considered the key piece for the offense to move on from Marquise Brown who they traded to Arizona. But Bateman has struggled with drops before missing two games with an injury. He returned in the Browns game and caught four balls for 40 yards — but Jackson only had 120 passing yards in the game. The Ravens have played three of their last four games at home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a losing record at home.
FINAL TAKE: Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in October. Look for Brady and company to find a way to win this critical game for them. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month is with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (102) minus (or plus) the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-24-22 |
Bears v. Patriots OVER 40 |
Top |
33-14 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (475) and the New England Patriots (476). THE SITUATION: Chicago (2-4) has lost three in a row after their 12-7 loss to Washington as a 1-point underdog two Thursdays ago on October 13th. New England (3-3) is on a two-game winning streak after their 38-15 upset win at Cleveland as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: While many observers pre-judged Bill Belichick’s decision to have Matt Patricia, those of us who were willing to just wait and evaluate the evidence as it develops (and Week One does not offer enough “evidence”) are now not handcuffed by the need to confirm prior assumptions. And guess what? The Patriots’ offense is starting to purr under Patricia’s guidance — even with rookie Bailey Zappe at quarterback. After only scoring 24 combined points in their first two games, New England has scored at least 24 points in four straight games while averaging 28.8 Points-Per-Game during that stretch. They are getting it done by running the football behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL — they are generating 146.5 rushing Yards-Per-Game in their last four games. In their two home games, they are averaging 160 rushing YPG on 5.1 Yards-Per-Carry. That level of productivity affords the Patriots the luxury of not having either of their young quarterbacks have to do too much in the passing game — but the team has passed for over 300 yards in two of their last four games. Belichick has yet to name a starter for tonight — but it was Mac Jones working with the first team on Saturday, so that is who I expect gets the nod. Frankly, it does not matter as both are capable in this offense. Zappe completed 24 of 34 passes for 309 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. While Buffalo and Kansas City get most of the attention with their dynamic passing attacks, it is teams like Philadelphia, Dallas, Seattle, and the New York Giants who rank in the Football Outsiders' top ten in offensive DVOA with run-first philosophies on offense. New England generated 6.3 Yards-Per-Carry against the Browns after averaging 6.5 YPP the previous week against Detroit. The Patriots have played 19 of their last 26 home games Over the Total after averaging at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. The Patriots have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points — and they have played 38 of their last 57 games Over the Total at home after a double-digit win. Additionally, they have played 4 straight Overs after passing for 250 or more yards in their last contest. The Patriots return home where they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total in October. Chicago generated 392 yards in offense but were 0-for-3 in the Red Zone in their 5-point loss to the Commanders last week. But I am seeing improvement in second-year quarterback Justin Fields who is getting more aggressive with his legs to compensate for the lack of play-makers at wide receiver. Fields ran the ball 12 times for 88 yards against Washington while passing for 190 yards. It is too easy to criticize the Bears management for not getting Fields more weapons — these observers fail to appreciate that first-year general manager Ryan Poles inherited a salary-cap disaster courtesy of previous general manager Ryan Pace which will take two years to address. Fields is getting better after not being coached well last season under “offensive” head coach Matt Nagy. The Bears do have a solid running game with David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert. They ran for 238 yards against a very good Washington defensive line last week. In fact, Chicago has rushed for 149 or more yards in four of their last five games — and that level of productivity will help put Fields in a better position to succeed in the passing game. Teams can run on the Patriots' defense — they rank 27th in the league in Rushing DVOA Defense according to the Football Outsiders analytics (for what that is worth). New England is allowing their opponents to average 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry — and they have given up at least 100 rushing yards in three of their last four games. The Bears have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last contest — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after losing four of their last five games. Chicago will likely find themselves trailing in this game — so they will probably pass the ball more in the second half against this Patriots team that gave up 258 passing yards last week. New England has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing 250 or more passing yards in their last contest. Chicago held Washington to only 86 passing yards last week — but they have played 4 straight Overs after allowing no more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. On the road, the Bears are allowing 25.3 PPG and 392.0 YPG.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings against each other Over the Total. While regulars know that I am quite willing to play Unders even when the number is at 40 or less, I find the number too low for this game given the Patriots’ offense and the likely game script that will follow. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (475) and the New England Patriots (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-23-22 |
Steelers v. Dolphins UNDER 44.5 |
Top |
10-16 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (473) and the Miami Dolphins (474). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (2-4) snapped their four-game losing streak with their 20-18 upset victory against Tampa Bay as a 10-point underdog last Sunday. Miami (3-3) has lost three in a row after their 24-16 loss at home to Minnesota as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers had not scored more than 20 points in any of their games during their four-game losing streak — they were scoring just 13.5 Points-Per-Game during that losing streak. And they only gained 270 yards against the Buccaneers last week — so it is not as if they discovered the keys to the offensive engine with rookie Kenny Pickett under center. But after an embarrassing 38-3 loss to Buffalo the previous week, head coach Mike Tomlin demanded a better effort from his defense — and they responded by holding Tom Brady and company to just 304 total yards. Despite being without T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh ranks a solid 15th in Defensive DVOA according to the metrics at Football Outsiders. But the offense remains a work in progress behind a subpar offensive line. They rank 24th in Offensive DVOA — and they cannot get their ground game going to help out Kenny Pickett or Mitchell Trubisky as they rank second-to-last in Rushing DVOA. In their three games on the road, they are scoring 14.3 Points-Per-Game. The Under is 14-5-1 in their last 20 games after a straight-up win. And while they had not covered the point spread in three straight games before their upset win last week, they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two of their last three games. Additionally, the Under is 45-19-1 in their last 65 games on the road — and the Under is 34-16-1 in their last 51 games in October. Miami gets Tua Tagovailoa back from concussion protocol for this game — but every Dolphins game now holds the risk that if he takes one big shot from a defender, then he will be removed from the game given the scrutiny the league is under regarding the implementation of their player safety policies. He is playing behind a shaky offensive line. Dynamic wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are both playing through injuries — and neither has scored a touchdown in four straight games. The Dolphins' defense did step up lack week by holding the Vikings to just 234 total yards. They gained 458 yards in the game but were held back by a -3 net turnover margin. Miami has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in three straight games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two straight games. They stay at home where they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range. They have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Additionally, Miami has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against AFC foes.
FINAL TAKE: Steelers’ senior assistant coach and linebackers coach Brian Flores may be Tomlin’s secret weapon in this game since he was Tagovailoa’s head coach in Miami in his first two seasons. The inside reports suggest Flores was not a fan of Tua. The Pittsburgh defensive approach will be interesting to watch. 25* AFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (473) and the Miami Dolphins (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-23-22 |
Colts +2.5 v. Titans |
Top |
10-19 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (455) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (456). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (3-2-1) has won three of their last four games after their 34-27 win against Jacksonville as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Tennessee (3-2) returns from their bye week on a three-game winning streak after their 21-17 victory at Washington two weeks ago.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: Indianapolis gets back running back Jonathan Taylor for this game to offer some balance for this Colts offense — and that should put quarterback Matt Ryan in an even better position to succeed. After a slow start to the season behind a struggling offensive line, head coach Frank Reich and the veteran Super Bowl quarterback have put things together in the passing game. Ryan completed 42 of 58 passes for 389 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions in the win against the Jaguars. The emergence of rookie wide receiver Alec Pierce has provided Ryan with a viable receiving option to complement Michael Pittman. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win against a divisional rival. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games after winning two of their last three games. And while they ran the ball only 16 times for 45 yards last week, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not rushing for more than 90 yards — and getting Taylor back will be a boon for this offense. The Colts' defense did hold the Jags to just 136 passing yards last week — and they are 15-4-2 ATS in their last 21 games after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last contest. Indy ranks 10th in the NFL by allowing only 323.7 Yards-Per-Game — and they are third in the league in 3rd Down defense. They have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as an underdog. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in October. The Colts are dealing with some injuries with Shaq Leonard not ready to return to linebacker this afternoon and defensive end Kwity Paye injured — but the Titans have their share of missing starters as well. Left tackle Taylor Lewan and top linebacker Harold Landry III are out the year with injuries. Linebacker Zach Cunningham and right guard Nate Davis are also out for today’s game. The Titans gained only 241 yards in their win against the Commanders — and they got outgained by -144 net yards after surrendering 385 total yards to Washington two weeks ago. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing 350 or more yards in their last contest. The draft day trade of wide receiver A.J. Brown has left the offense too one-dimensional. The team signed Robert Woods as a free agent and drafted rookie Treylon Burks from Arkansas — but he is injured and out for today’s game. Ryan Tannehill completed 15 of 25 passes against the Commanders for only 181 yards. Their 136 net passing yards (after sacks) was their third-lowest passing yardage effort this season. They are an unreliable favorite who have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games as a favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games laying up to three points. Despite their winning record, they are getting outscored by -4.2 Points-Per-Game and getting outgained by -112.6 YPG due to an anemic offense gaining only 278.2 YPG. They only generate 25.4 yards per drive on offense while surrendering 37.4 yards per drive — and that -11.75 net yardage difference per drive is last in the league. Indianapolis, on the other hand, has outgained their opponents by +26 net YPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Titans have won their last four games against the Colts after their 24-17 win at Lucas Oil Stadium as a 4-point underdog on October 2nd. But Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against Tennessee at their Nissan Stadium. 25* AFC South Game of the Month with the Indianapolis Colts (455) plus the points versus the Tennessee Titans (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-20-22 |
Saints +2.5 v. Cardinals |
Top |
34-42 |
Loss |
-100 |
16 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New Orleans Saints (303) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (304). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (2-4) has lost four of their last five games after their 30-26 loss to Cincinnati as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Arizona (2-4) has lost two in a row after their 19-9 upset loss at Seattle as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SAINTS PLUS THE POINTS: New Orleans has lost four of their six games despite outgaining their opponents by +39.5 net Yards-Per-Game this season. Three of their four losses were decided by one-scoring possession. They outgained the Bengals last week by a 399 to 348 yardage margin in the loss. Turnovers have been a problem — with many of them coming from interceptions from Jameis Winston. The Saints’ special teams are a mess as well with them ranking 31st in the DVOA rankings of special teams units at Football Outsiders. But they play a Cardinals team that ranks just 29th in special teams. And while head coach Dennis Allen has not named a starting quarterback, reports indicate that he will likely tap Andy Dalton as his starter once again this week with Winston not 100% with a back and ankle injury that kept him limited in practice on this short week. Dalton has thrown only one interception in three games this season with a 1.2% interception rate for his 82 passes. That is what this Saints team needs right now — play smart, lean on their defense, and avoid mistakes. They are ravaged with injuries (but so are the Cardinals). Wide receivers Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry are out along with tight end Andrew Trainman. Starting left guard Andrus Peat is also out. Winston would not have the skill players he would need to take advantage of his arm strength while perhaps needing to be savvier given the offensive line issues. Dalton is the better option on a short week — and he did work with the starting offense on Tuesday. Furthermore, offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael is going a nice job incorporating Taysom Hill as a weapon at quarterback or running back to throw off opposing defenses — something this Cardinals team will be susceptible to on a short week. The Saints are also without cornerback Marshon Lattimore. The good news is that rookie wide receiver Chris Olave is expected to play. Even better news: running back Alvin Kamara is heating up with 52 touches in the last two games. New Orleans ranks second in the league in Rushing DVOA according to Football Outsiders. The Saints have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss at home. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing two of their last three games. They have also covered the point spread in 37 of their last 58 games on the road after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. They are outgaining their opponents by +32.0 net YPG in their three road games — and they have covered the point spread in 38 of their last 54 games on the road. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after an upset loss as a road favorite — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a double-digit loss as a road favorite. The injury list for the Cardinals is even worse than the Saints for this game on a short week. Wide receiver Marquise Brown is out for at least a month with a foot injury. Quarterback Kyler Murray does get DeAndre Hopkins back from his six-game suspension — but that is probably not a net-plus switch. Arizona is tied for last in the league by averaging only 4.1 air yards per completion — and Brown is more of a deep threat than Hopkins is at this point in his career. Running back James Conner is questionable with a rib injury. Additionally, the offensive line is hit hard with two starters out: left guard Justin Pugh is out the season with a knee, and center Rodney Hudson is out tonight. These issues on the offensive line are one of the reasons why Murray is struggling — but he does seem to be too often bailout out of the pocket and relying on his physical talent which can generate amazing highlight reels while not being the optimal route for efficiency on offense. The Cardinals are generating 19.0 PPG along with 346.0 YPG — and they rank 26th in Offensive DVOA and 26th in the passing game specifically which is an indictment of both Murray and head coach Kliff Kingsbury. If Kingsbury follows through with his consideration of giving up play-calling duties, then I am not sure what is left for the guy who had a losing record at Texas Tech before falling forward with this gig after getting sacked by his alma mater. The injuries on defense are also significant with linebacker Dennis Gardeck out and cornerback Trayvon Muller and safety Jalen Thompson questionable. The Cardinals rank 20th in Defensive DVOA — and they are allowing 28.0 PPG and 394.7 YPG in their three home games where they are getting outscored by -11.3 PPG. Arizona is winless in their three home games this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games at home when favored.
FINAL TAKE: New Orleans has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against Arizona. The Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. After a 7-0 start last season, Arizona has lost 11 of their last 17 games with everything seeming to be moving in the wrong direction. In an expected close game, I find Dalton, Kamara, and the Saints' defense along with Dennis Allen as more reliable. 25* NFC Game of the Month with New Orleans Saints (303) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-17-22 |
Broncos +4.5 v. Chargers |
Top |
16-19 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Denver Broncos (275) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (276). THE SITUATION: Denver (2-3) has lost two games in a row after their 12-9 loss in overtime as a 3-point favorite two Thursdays ago on October 6th. Los Angeles (3-2) has won two games in a row after their 30-28 win at Cleveland as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS: I will be holding my nose taking this Denver team — but I suspect we will see an inspired effort from a desperate team who comes off the longest possible break in-between games save for the bye weeks. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after playing on Thursday in their last game. Denver did outgain the Colts by a 375 to 306 margin. Russell Wilson has been a big disappointment this season which was a surprise to me — but while I am skeptical of his long-term potential, he is still a savvy veteran who knows he needs to step it up. He claims some of his struggles are due to an arm injury — and he did get a shot in his right lat last week so perhaps he will have more zip again on his long ball. The Broncos have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after a loss by three points or less. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Denver is playing better on defense than I expected. They were third in the league last year by allowing 18.9 Points-Per-Game — but I thought that number was misleading by the ball-control offense under head coach Vic Fangio. But the Broncos are allowing just 16.0 PPG this year while limiting their opponents to 289.0 total Yards-Per-Game. Furthermore, while ranking just 20th in the defensive DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders last season, they currently sit second in the league in those analytics this year. Denver has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games on the road as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in two straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. The Chargers gained 465 total yards against the Browns with 238 of those yards on the ground. But this team has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after gaining at least 400 yards in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Los Angeles has scored at least 30 points in their last two games while playing three straight Overs. But they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after playing three straight Overs. This team is dealing with several crushing injuries. Joey Bosa is on injured reserve hurting the defense that is allowing 28.5 PPG at home. Left tackle Rashawn Slater is out the year with a biceps injury. Wide receiver Keenan Allen was declared out for tonight as he recovers from a hamstring injury that has kept him out so far this season.
FINAL TAKE: Home teams at SoFi Stadium do not enjoy much of a home-field advantage — the Chargers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Los Angeles is an unreliable favorite — they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. Look for this divisional rivalry to be a close game. 25* AFC West Game of the Month is with the Denver Broncos (275) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-16-22 |
Cowboys v. Eagles -5 |
Top |
17-26 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Philadelphia Eagles (274) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (273). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (5-0) remained the lone unbeaten team this week with their 20-17 victory at Arizona as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. Dallas (4-1) has won four in a row after their 22-10 upset win at Los Angeles against the Rams as a 5.5-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: The laptops love this Philadelphia team. The DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders rank them as the second-best team in the league behind Buffalo. They rank 5th in both offensive DVOA and defensive DVOA according to their metrics. They enjoy the best turnover ratio in the NFL by a mile — their 11 takeaways are the most in the league and their two giveaways are the fewest in the league. Their RPO-heavy offense catches most teams off-guard while exposing defensive rosters designed to stop pass-heavy offenses using three or more wide receivers. They lead the NFL by controlling the time of possession for 33:53 minutes per game. But they combine a ball-control offense with explosiveness — they lead the league with 44 “Big Plays” (a rushing gain of 12 or more yards or a passing gain of 16 or more yards). They are outscoring their opponents by +9.4 Points-Per-Game and outgaining them by +125.4 net Yards-Per-Game. I am anxious to see the Eagles play against teams that made deep playoff runs last year — but they host a division rival with a backup quarterback tonight. Philadelphia has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a narrow win by three points or less. They return home where they have outgained their opponents by +202.0 net YPG this year. Philadelphia is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Dallas only gained 239 total yards last week against the Rams — and they were outgained by -84 net yards in pulling off that upset victory. A +3 net turnover margin including a defensive touchdown played a big role in that win against the defending Super Bowl champions who are facing an existential crisis with the injuries on their offensive line. Dallas has been very fortunate with their schedule after looking hapless in their opening game at Tampa Bay where they only scored a field goal. They got Cincinnati the next week who was dealing with offensive line cohesion issues along with Joe Burrow still rusty after his appendectomy limited his preseason work — and the Bengals almost rallied to win in the second half. They then got the New York Giants, with all due respect to the job Brian Daboll is doing in his first year with that dysfunctional organization. That win was followed up with a game against Washington and Carson Wentz who melts under defensive pressure (and Dallas’ pass rush is elite). This will be the Cowboys’ third game on the road in the last four weeks — a stiff challenge particularly for backup quarterback Cooper Rush. While the faux quarterback controversy provides national headlines for owner Jerry Jones, remember that general manager Jones cut Rush in late August before reclaiming him a day later when the entire league passed on him. Rush has benefited from playing with a lead for almost his entire stint since Dak Prescott got injured. He will likely have to play from behind tonight. The Cowboys rank 29th in the league in third-down offense with Rush under center. To compound the matter, he split time this week in practice with Prescott who flirted with playing in this game. The Dallas defense has helped them play two straight Unders — but the Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 48 road games after playing two straight Unders.
FINAL TAKE: Philadelphia will have revenge on their mind against this Dallas team that toasted them 41-21 and then 51-26 in their two meetings last season. Admittedly, that 51-26 loss in Week 17 was against an Eagles team resting key starters with their wildcard game already set. Still, surrendering 92 points and losing by 45 combined points has certainly been a strong point of emphasis all offseason. If Philly wants to make a deep playoff run, then taking care of the Cowboys is high on their agenda. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Philadelphia Eagles (274) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (273). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-16-22 |
Jets v. Packers -7.5 |
Top |
27-10 |
Loss |
-105 |
16 h 52 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (260) minus the points versus the New York Jets (259). THE SITUATION: Green Bay (3-2) looks to rebound from a 27-22 upset loss to the New York Giants as an 8.5-point favorite in London last Sunday. New York (3-2) pulled off their second-straight upset victory with a 40-17 upset win against Miami as a 3-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Green Bay controlled most of their game with the Giants — they held a 20-10 lead at halftime — but sleepwalked through the second half overconfident that they would always find a way to pull the game out against Daniel Jones. But Aaron Rodgers audibled out of likely successful running plays at the goal line to telegraph his little slant throw that everyone knows he likes — and the Giants’ defense successfully batted the last pass down to steal the game. Players called out Rodgers afterward — and maybe what this team needs is some internal tension to raise the level of urgency. As it is, Rodgers has led the Packers to nine straight wins after losing their last game with the average winning margin being by more than 14 points — and he has nine touchdown passes without an interception in those nine games. Green Bay has been resilient when facing (regular season) adversity — they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after a straight-up loss and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games after a point spread loss. The Packers have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a narrow loss by six points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss. Returning home to Lambeau Field will make a big difference where Green Bay has a 24-3 record since the beginning of the 2019 season. Rodgers’ personal record as the starter at Lambeau is 23-1 in his last 24 with 15 straight wins. The Packers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 straight home games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games when laying 7.5 to 14 points. New York has pulled off two straight upset wins after stunning Pittsburgh on the road two weeks ago. We had the Steelers in that game — Mitch Trubisky gets benched at halftime for Kenny Pickett and the Pittsburgh run defense collapsed late in that game when the Jets seemed satisfied to just burn time and kick a field goal to force overtime. The fortunate breaks continued last week with Teddy Bridgewater getting injured for the Dolphins in his first series of the game leaving Miami to have to play 7th-round draft pick, Skylar Thompson, at quarterback after not practicing with the first-team offense all week. But remember that it was still a 19-17 game five minutes into the fourth quarter before mistakes by Thompson contributed to the Jets scoring three late touchdowns to produce a final score that was not indicative of how close the game was. New York has skated by facing some of the least threatening quarterbacks in the league: Jacoby Brissett, Trubisky/Pickett, Bridgewater/Thompson. In their two games against Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow, the Jets’ defense has surrendered six touchdown passes with only one interception. The Jets should get exposed in this one. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset win by three or more touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. Having had action against the Jets the last two weeks, I have seen some of the sketchy plays that second-year quarterback Zach Wilson has made that do not translate into the box score. He benefited from facing an injury-depleted Dolphins secondary — but the assignment is much tougher against this angry Packers defense. New York is still banged up at tackle having to rely on fourth and fifth stringers. Wilson has a 3-6 record in his nine career starts on the road. The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 road games against teams wit ha winning record at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Execution should lead to the Packers pulling away in this one. The Jets rank 28th in 3rd Down Defense even with that rogue's gallery of quarterbacks they have played in three of their games — and here comes Rodgers with a chip on his shoulder after last week. The Green Bay defense has held their opponents to converting just 3 of 23 third downs of seven or more yards.
FINAL TAKE: The Packers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. This is a “relax” game for Rodgers against this Jets’ team playing over their head. 25* NFL Game of the Month with the Green Bay Packers (260) minus the points versus the New York Jets (259). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-13-22 |
Washington Commanders v. Bears UNDER 38.5 |
Top |
12-7 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (105) and the Chicago Bears (106). THE SITUATION: Washington (1-4) lost for the fourth straight time on Sunday in a 21-17 loss at home to Tennessee as a 1-point underdog. Chicago (2-3) has lost two in a row after a 29-22 loss at Minnesota as a 10-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: We are confronted with another low Total below 40 — but when it looks hard to just not take the Over, that is when we need to swallow hard and give the Under strong consideration. These are two of the worst offenses in the league playing on a short week. It would not be a surprise if at least one of these teams struggles to reach 14 points. The Total suggests this game is a race to 20 points — and both coaches will likely embrace the concept, making a lower-scoring game a self-fulfilling prophecy. Washington scores 18.0 Points-Per-Game — and they rank 30th in offense according to the DVOA metric at Football Outsiders. They have only scored 35 combined points in their last three games behind a mediocre offensive line that is now decimated by injuries. Three original starters, center Chase Roullier, right guard Wes Schweitzer, and right tackle Sam Cosmi, are all out for this game. The Commanders rank 28th in the NFL by averaging just 89 rushing Yards-Per-Game — and they rank 30th by giving up 20 sacks to Carson Wentz already this season. Wentz will be without two important targets in the passing game with both rookie wide receiver Jahan Dotson and tight end Logan Thomas declared out for this game. As it is, the Commanders have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight Unders after a point spread loss. And while Washington managed to gain 385 yards last week against the Titans, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Commanders have played three straight Unders while not scoring more than 17 points in any of those three games. They have then played 6 straight Unders after not scoring more than 17 points in two straight games — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. They have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 8 straight Unders after losing three in a row. And while Washington has not covered the point spread in their last four games, they have then played 20 of their last 24 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in four straight games. Chicago is scoring only 17.2 PPG this season while averaging just 274.0 total YPG which is second-to-last in the NFL — and they rank 29th in Offensive DVOA. They managed only 271 yards last week against the Vikings. The Bears have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a point-spread win. The Vikings generated 429 yards against them last week — but they have played 24 of their last 35 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. And while that game finished above the 43.5-point total, they have played 10 go their last 15 games Under the Total after playing their last game Over the Total. They return home where they have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total — and they have played 14 of their last 17 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. The Chicago defense has been tough at home as they have held their first two opponents to only 15.0 PPG and 330.0 total YPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Bears have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total in October — and the Commanders have played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total. Expect plenty of punts and Red Zone failures — and both coaches will play conservatively. 25* NFC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Commanders (105) and the Chicago Bears (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-10-22 |
Raiders v. Chiefs OVER 51 |
Top |
29-30 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (479) and the Kansas City Chiefs (480). THE SITUATION: Las Vegas (1-3) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 32-23 win against Denver as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (3-1) comes off a 41-31 upset win at Tampa Bay as a 2-point underdog last Sunday night.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs demonstrated that their offense will continue to roll even without Tyreek Hill by overwhelming an outstanding Buccaneers last week. Patrick Mahomes is doing a great job in distributing the football to open receivers — and head coach Andy Reid is willing to dial up the running game against defenses that playing the in-vogue two high safety shell schemes to take away big plays in the passing game. Kansas City ran for 189 yards against the stout Tampa Bay run defense while generating 417 total yards. The Chiefs have scored at least 27 points in three of their four games while scoring 41 or more points twice. They are second in the NFL by averaging 32.3 Points-Per-Game. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Chiefs have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. And while Tampa Bay ran the ball for only three yards last week, Kansas City has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after outrushing their previous opponent by 75 or more yards. The Buccaneers fell behind early and abandoned the running game completely (which played a big role in ruining our Under in that game). A similar game script will likely take place tonight. The Raiders will struggle to run the ball against the Chiefs' defense that leads the NFL by allowing only 66 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Admittedly, that number is lower because opponents abandon the ground game — but their opponents are averaging just 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry and they rank third in run defense DVOA at Football Outsiders. But teams can pass on the Chiefs' defense that replaced three starting defensive backs in the offseason including Tyrann Mathieu. Kansas City is giving up 264 passing YPG with opposing quarterbacks completing 70.4% of the passes against them. The Chiefs' pass defense ranks 20th in the league DVOA. The Bucs averaged a healthy 6.4 Yards-Per-Play against them last week while converting touchdowns on all three of their trips inside the Red Zone. Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The 23 points that Las Vegas gave up to the Broncos were the fewest points they have allowed this season. They have played two straight Overs — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing their last two games Over the Total. Additionally, the Raiders have played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after losing three of four contests. Two of their games have seen at least 52 combined points — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. The Las Vegas defense is allowing 25.0 PPG and 357.0 total YPG. They did hold Denver to just 299 total yards — but the Broncos only had 45 offensive plays in the game. They allowed Denver to average 6.64 YPP a week after allowing Tennessee to average 6.69 YPP the previous week. The Raiders have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.5 YPP — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing two straight opponents to generate at least 6.0 YPP. Furthermore, the Over is 8-3-1 in Las Vegas’ last 12 games in October. The Raiders have also played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total against AFC West rivals.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas City has averaged 36 PPG in their last nine games against the Raiders with Mahomes under center. These two teams have played their last four games Over the Total with the Chiefs scoring 48 and 41 points in both games last year. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Las Vegas Raiders (479) and the Kansas City Chiefs (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-09-22 |
Bengals +3.5 v. Ravens |
Top |
17-19 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (477) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (478). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (2-2) won their second-straight game with their 27-15 victory against Miami as a 4-point favorite two Thursdays ago. Baltimore (2-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 23-20 loss to Buffalo as a 3-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: The Bengals have addressed the sack issues that plagued them in their opening two games. After getting sacked an unsustainable 13 times in their first two games, Joe Burrow has only been sacked three times in his last two games for just 20 yards. Cincinnati invested heavily to upgrade their offensive line in the offseason by bringing in center Ted Karras from New England, right guard Alex Cappa from Tampa Bay, and right tackle La’El Collins from Dallas. It may have taken some time after not enough work in the preseason for this group to start developing cohesion. But the other factor was that Burrow was simply holding on to the ball too long looking for his dynamic win receivers to get open. He has done a better job over the last two games in getting the ball out faster. Don’t underestimate the impact of Burrow’s appendectomy in August in slowing down his getting up to speed. But now over his last three games, Burrow has six touchdown passes and no interceptions while posting a 107 Passer Rating. He completed 20 of 31 passes for 287 yards last week — and Cincy has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a game where they gained at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Now Burrow plays a limping Ravens’ pass defense that he torched for over 900 passing yards against in his two games against them last year. Baltimore is last in the NFL this season by surrendering 315 Yards-Per-Game. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. They gained 371 yards against the Dolphins last week — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after generating at least 350 yards in their last game. The Bengals did give up 378 yards to Miami in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after allowing 375 or more yards in their last contest. Despite that yardage allowed, Cincinnati has been impressive on defense this season. They rank 8th in the league by holding their opponents to just 327.5 total Yards-Per-Game — and the five touchdowns they have conceded is the second-fewest in the NFL. The Bengals are 4th in the NFL by holding their opponents to 86 rushing YPG — and they are 4th in the league in 3rd Down defense. They are holding their opponents to just 17.5 PPG. Cincinnati goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games as an underdog getting up to seven points. Baltimore only gained 295 total yards last week in a showdown with the Bills that many observers expected to be a scoring fest. The Ravens miss Marquise Brown at wide receiver who now plays for Arizona — he accounted for 91 receptions and 1008 yards last year. Rashod Bateman drops too many passes and has not been able to emerge as a legitimate number-one option. The passing attack now runs almost exclusively through tight end Mark Andrews — but the lack of threatening options on the outside is one of the reasons why the Ravens are averaging only 217 passing YPG. Baltimore has lost five straight games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored by up to seven points. The Ravens are also 11-27-2 ATS in their last 40 games in October. As seemingly always, injuries have hit this team hard. Baltimore has a long list of players out impacting their depth — and starting left tackle Ronnie Stanley and Bateman are out for tonight’s game. On defense, defensive tackle Michael Pierce is out and cornerback Marcus Peters is questionable.
FINAL TAKE: The Bengals scored 41 points in both their victories against the Ravens last year. While Baltimore has been planning for revenge all off-season, Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games against AFC opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against AFC North rivals. The Bengals have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in Baltimore against the Ravens. In Burrow, I Trust -- he should keep this game close (even if he does not lead his team to victory). 25* AFC North Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bengals (477) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-06-22 |
Colts v. Broncos UNDER 44 |
Top |
12-9 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (301) and the Denver Broncos (302). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (1-2-1) looks to rebound from their 24-17 upset loss to Tennessee as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. Denver (2-2) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 32-23 loss at Las Vegas as a 2.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Don’t blame the Colts' defense for the upset loss to the Titans — they held their AFC South Rivals to just 243 total yards. It was a -3 net turnover margin that did Indianapolis in for that game — and they have played 4 straight Unders after playing a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. Indianapolis is holding their opponents to just 297.0 total Yards-Per-Game. They have not allowed more than 24 points in any of their four games — and they are allowing just 21.3 Points-Per-Game. But the struggling Colts offense has not scored more than 20 points in any of their games this year — they are scoring 14.3 PPG and generating just 339.8 total YPG. Things will not get any easier for the Indy offense on a short week with running back Jonathan Taylor declared out for this game with an ankle injury. The Colts have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after an upset loss to an AFC South rival as a home favorite. Additionally, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Now after playing their last two games at home, they go back on the road where they have played 5 straight Unders — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing their last two games at home. Denver had only allowed 36 combined points in their first three games before a desperate Raiders team generated 385 yards and 32 points against them last week. But the Broncos have then played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing a game where they allowed at least 30 points — and the Under is a decisive 37-18-1 in their last 56 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. And while Las Vegas rushed for 212 yards in that game, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. They return home where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total. The Denver defense is still allowing only 17.0 PPG along with 284.0 total YPG. But the offense has yet to gel with Russell Wilson under center as they have scored not more than 16 points in three of their four games — they are only generating 16.5 PPG and 335.8 total YPG. To compound matters moving forward, Denver lost their top running Javonte Williams to a torn ACL last week that will keep him out the season. The Broncos' offensive line is banged up with starting guard Quinn Meinerz out with a hamstring and starting right tackle Billy Turner questionable with a knee injury.
FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has played 8 straight Unders against AFC opponents — and the Under is 35-17-1 in Denver’s last 52 games against fellow AFC opponents. While this is another low total, it would not be terribly surprising if at least one of these teams struggles to score 14 points. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (301) and the Denver Broncos (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-03-22 |
Rams v. 49ers |
Top |
9-24 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the San Francisco 49ers (280) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (279). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (1-2) looks to bounce back from an 11-10 upset loss at Denver as a 1.5-point favorite last Sunday night. Los Angeles (2-1) has won two in a row after their 20-12 win at Arizona as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS: San Francisco was held back last week by a -3 net turnover margin on the road against the Broncos. Another full week of practice should help Jimmy Garoppolo get back up to speed with the offense after not even working with his teammates in the preseason after Trey Lance was given the starting quarterback job. He was solid last week by completing 18 of 29 passes for 211 yards with a touchdown and an interception — but some areas could be cleaned up. The 49ers have rebounded to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 31 games after suffering an upset loss on the road as the favorite. Additionally, San Francisco has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, the 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last contest. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games at Levi’s Stadium. Despite their losing record, San Francisco remains a very good team on both sides of the ball. They lead the NFL with only two three-and-out drives all season. On defense, they are the only team in the league to be holding their opponents to under 4.0 Yards-Per-Play. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow NFC West rivals. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after winning two games in a row. The Rams did allow the Cardinals to gain 365 yards in that game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after giving up at least 350 yards in their last contest. And while they averaged 7.5 Yards-Per-Play last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 6.5 YPP in their last contest. The reigning Super Bowl champions have been sloppy to start the season — they have seven giveaways in their three games. Matthew Stafford has been the main culprit with five interceptions already — and this comes off a year where he threw 17 interceptions which were tied for the most in the NFL (and remember he had four pick-sixes last year). The injuries are mounting up for the Rams as well. They will be missing two starting offensive linemen in left guard David Edwards and center Brian Allen — and this group had already taken a big step back with the retirement of left tackle Andrew Whitworth in the offseason. The defense is down several defensive backs including starting cornerback Troy Hill. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: San Francisco swept the two regular-season meetings between these two teams — but they will be motivated to avenge their 20-17 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams in the NFC Championship Game. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against the Niners — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at San Francisco. The 49ers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games on Monday Night Football. 25* NFC West Game of the Month with the San Francisco 49ers (280) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (279). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-02-22 |
Chiefs v. Bucs UNDER 46 |
Top |
41-31 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (277) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (278). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (2-1) looks to rebound from their 20-17 loss at Indianapolis as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. Tampa Bay (2-1) comes off a 14-12 upset loss to Green Bay as a 2.5-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After Arizona inexplicably opted to play a single-high safety while blitzing Patrick Mahomes in Week One, we have seen how the Chiefs’ offense will operate without Tyreke Hill when facing defenses that play two-safeties to take away the big plays of Patrick Mahomes with his set of weapons that now is without the speedster Hill. Why are defensive coordinators still opting to blitz quarterbacks like Mahomes who punish these tactics by getting the ball out to play-makers quickly against a now undermanned secondary? He completed 30 of 39 passes for 360 yards against the Cardinals. Things then changed when facing the Brandon Staley-coached Chargers that are willing to kill explosive quarterbacks like Mahomes by a thousand cuts by daring him to settle for shorter plays and longer drives. KC gained only 319 yards in their 27-24 victory which turned on a 99-yard interception return for a touchdown by the Chiefs’ defense. Against the Colts last week, Kansas City only gained 305 total yards while only being on the field for 26:28 minutes. In his last two games, Mahomes has completed only 44 of 71 passes for 483 yards. Now the Chiefs face Todd Bowles and the Buccaneers’ elite defense that held him to completing 26 of 43 passes for 243 yards in the Super Bowl two years ago when they only scored nine points in that 22-point loss. Kansas City has certainly improved their offensive line since then, but the elite secondary of Tampa Bay will still take away big plays against a Chiefs’ set of targets that is now without Hill. As it is, Kansas City has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after getting upset on the road as a favorite — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. The defense is playing quite well by holding their opponents to 21.7 Points-Per-Game along with 314.0 total Yards-Per-Game. They have held their last two opponents to 75 and 82 rushing yards — and they have then played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. But the Chiefs have not rushed for more than 98 yards in two straight games — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after not rushing for at least 100 yards in two straight games. Tampa Bay is getting healthy again at wide receiver with Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, and Russell Gage all expected to join Mike Evans on the field after he was suspended for last week’s game. But those injured players have not practiced this week so the passing game may not be in synch quite yet for Tom Brady. The Buccaneers have not scored more than 20 points this season — they are scoring just 17.0 PPG while averaging 297.3 total YPG. They have played 7 straight Unders after a loss — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset loss. The Tampa Bay defense may be the best unit in the NFL. They held Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense to only 315 yards. They are giving up only 9.0 PPG along with 289.0 total YPG. But the issue for the Bucs is their beat-up offensive line. After the surprise retirement of All-Pro left guard Ali Marpet, the line is without Ryan Jensen, Aaron Stinnie, and Josh Wells — and Donovan Smith was limited in practice this week. They are using rookie Luke Goedeke at left tackle and the depth is razor thin. Tampa Bay cannot get their rushing game going as they have only gained 106 yards on the ground in the last two weeks after getting a mere 36 rushing yards last week. The Buccaneers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not rushing for more than 90 yards in their last game. Tampa Bay is averaging only 3.4 Yards-Per-Carry — and Kansas City has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams not generating more than 3.5 YPC.
FINAL TAKE: The Buccaneers have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total in expected close games when they are listed in the +/- 3-point range. Don’t be surprised if both teams try to control the clock — that is the Tampa Bay formula to keep Mahomes off the field and the Buccaneers will dare the Chiefs to run against their elite run defense. Long drives are a great recipe to cash under tickets. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (277) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-02-22 |
Jets v. Steelers -3 |
Top |
24-20 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (264) minus the points versus the New York Jets (263). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (1-2) has lost two games in a row after their 29-17 loss at Cleveland as a 3.5-point underdog on Thursday, September 22nd. New York (1-2) looks to rebound from their 27-12 loss at home to Cincinnati as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh was only on the field for 23:51 minutes last week against the Browns for that Thursday Night Football game — and that game was closer than the final score indicated with Cleveland scoring a final touchdown on a fumble recovery that they scooped into the end zone. The Steelers actually had a 14-13 lead at halftime. Now after pulling off their Week One upset at Cincinnati, Pittsburgh needs this game to even their record at 2-2. With the extra days off from last week to rest and prepare for this contest, expect a spirited effort from head coach Mike Tomlin’s group. The Steelers have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a double-digit loss to a fellow AFC North rival. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread loss. Mitchell Trubisky completed 20 of 32 passes for 207 yards in the loss with no interceptions. What was encouraging for Pittsburgh in this game is that he threw the ball downfield a bit more. While I am expecting Trubisky to embark on a Hall of Fame career anytime soon, this is a quarterback with a career 30-23 record as a starter. Frankly, I worry more about offensive coordinator Matt Canada — the Steelers need to get their talented receiving corps more involved in the game and trust Trubisky (something Tomlin called on after their loss to New England in Week Two). Now after that short week, I expect a better offensive plan — and I also expect Pittsburgh to lean into deploying Trubisky’s mobility. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in October under Tomlin. They are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games at home at the newly renamed Acrisure Stadium. The Jets get second-year quarterback Zach Wilson back under center after he was out for about six weeks with the knee he injured early in the preseason. In the short-term, New York is swallowing a downgrade at quarterback going from the veteran Joe Flacco to Wilson — especially since the former BYU quarterback has been not practicing after not playing in the preseason. This situation is compounded by the decimation this team has already faced with injuries on their offensive line. The Jets are already on their fifth and sixth-string offensive tackles (in a league where depth at tackle is already lacking — for the good teams). Wilson was raw last year after not playing in a pro-style offense in college. His 69.7 Passer Rating was the worst in the NFL. He played better late in the season — but he needed the preseason to continue his development. He still has issues with his mechanics, footwork, decision-making, accuracy, handling the pass-rush, and his decision-making. Did I forget anything? I understand why the Jets are putting him out there even with their significant issues at offensive line, they need to give him time to grow — but if they wanted to win games in the short-term, the veteran Flacco would be out there, even with his limitations in his 15th season. Are the Jets going to ask Wilson to throw the ball 52 times as they did with Flacco last week? That is a recipe for a disaster — the kid is going to make mistakes. Wilson was 3-10 as a starter last year with only nine touchdown passes and 11 interceptions. He was sacked 44 times behind a better offensive line — he got sacked every 9.7 pass attempts. New York has thrown the ball at least 45 times in each of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games after attempting at least 40 passes in two straight contests. The Jets are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: The Jets have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at Pittsburgh. New York continues their rebuild after 11 straight seasons not making the playoffs versus a Steelers team that has not had a losing season under Tomlin. Maybe Wilson improves this season — but on the road with that offensive line after missing most of the preseason, it is going to be bumpy. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (264) minus the points versus the New York Jets (263). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-29-22 |
Dolphins v. Bengals -3.5 |
Top |
15-27 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (102) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (101). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (1-2) comes off a 27-12 victory in New York against the Jets as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. Miami (3-0) remained undefeated this season after their 21-19 upset victory at home against Buffalo as a 4-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS: Miami comes off the emotional high of beating the Bills just four days ago — and they are ripe for a letdown for this game on the road being played on a short week. It’s rookie head coach Mike McDaniel’s first game preparing his team to play on a short week for Thursday Night Football. Even more challenging is that the defense was on the field for a whopping 90 plays in the Miami heat. If the Dolphins were playing on Sunday, then the defensive players would probably not even be practicing on Thursday — but now they are playing another game on this quick turnaround. As it is, Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 31 games after upsetting a fellow AFC East rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after upsetting a division rival as a home underdog. With the Dolphins' offense only on the field for 19:20 minutes of that game, they got outgained by the Bills by a 497 to 212 yardage margin — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 44 games on the road after getting outgained by 100 or more yards in their last game. Despite their 3-0 record, Miami is only generating 355.3 total Yards-Per-Game — and they have only gained more than 307 yards in one of their games. They are surrendering a whopping 413.7 total YPG — more than 76 YPG than they did last season when they ranked 15th in the NFL. The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 32 of their last 45 games after allowing at least 400 YPG in their last three games including failing to cover the point spread just once in the last five circumstances when those conditions applied. Tua Tagovailoa has played great in the McDaniel offense getting the ball out to his playmakers — but he is far from 100% for this game dealing with a back and ankle injury. Miami has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49-point range. Cincinnati was flat against Pittsburgh in their opening game before falling behind at halftime against Dallas by a 17-3 score in their second game. But in their last six quarters, they have looked like the team that reached the Super Bowl by outscoring their opponents by a 41-15 margin. They should build off their momentum from their victory last week as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Bengals have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after losing two of their last three games. And while their game with the Jets finished Under the 45.5 point Total, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after playing an Under in their last game. Despite Joe Burrow not playing in the preseason as he recovered from his appendectomy and despite the continuing problem with sacks with Burrow getting mauled for 13 sacks in the first two games of the season, this team would still be 3-0 if not losing both of their first two games on the final play of the game. Burrow only took two sacks last week — and he has four touchdown passes and no interceptions in his last two games. He completed 23 of 36 passes last week for 275 yards — and Cincy has covered the points spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. The Bengals are outscoring and outgaining their opponents this year — and their defense has played well by allowing just 18.3 PPG and 310.7 total YPG. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games.
FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 7 straight games against teams with a winning record. They enjoy a significant situational edge against a Dolphins team coming off an emotional high but likely to be gassed by the second half tonight. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bengals (102) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-26-22 |
Cowboys +2.5 v. Giants |
Top |
23-16 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Dallas Cowboys (489) plus the point(s) versus the New York Giants (490). THE SITUATION: Dallas (1-1) looks to build off their 20-17 upset victory against Cincinnati as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. New York (2-0) pulled off their second-straight upset win in a 19-16 victory at home against Carolina as a 1-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINT(S): New York opened their season with a 21-20 upset win at Tennessee in a game when they stole the game by converting a late 2-point conversion. But both of their wins have been by a combined four points. They were outgained by a 275 to 265 margin in yardage last week against the Panthers despite being on offense for 35:57 minutes of that game. The Giants averaged a meager 3.96 Yards-Per-Play last week. They only scored six points in the first half against Carolina after getting shutout in the first half against the Titans. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after not scoring more than seven points in the first half in two straight games. Additionally, the Giants have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread win. They return home where they are just 10-22-1 ATS in their last 33 games at MetLife Stadium. New York has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against fellow NFC East opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 42-point range. Dallas outgained the Bengals last week by a 337 to 254 yardage margin despite only having their offense on the field for 26:12 minutes of that game. While I am not buying the hype from the owner/general manager Jerry Jones about how good Cooper Rush is, it is hard to deny that he has been steady when given the opportunity to play under center for this team. He completed 19 of 31 passes for 235 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. In his five games last year which included one start, he completed 30 of 47 passes for 422 yards with three touchdown passes and only one interception. Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore did a good job of helping to put Rush into a position to succeed by getting the ball to playmakers. Dallas has a great rushing combination in Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. The Cowboys go on the road for the first time this season — but they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games away from home. Furthermore, Dallas has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games against NFC East rivals — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in September. The Cowboys have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 appearances on Monday Night Football.
FINAL TAKE: Rookie head coach Brian Daboll has done a nice job in motivating his team and getting them to believe in themselves — but I expect the bubble to burst tonight against a team with a better overall roster. Dallas has won nine of their last ten meetings with the Giants. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against them — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against them in the Meadowlands. 25* NFC East Game of the Month with the Dallas Cowboys (489) plus the point(s) versus the New York Giants (490). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-25-22 |
49ers v. Broncos UNDER 44.5 |
Top |
10-11 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (487) and the Denver Broncos (488). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (1-1) comes off a 27-7 win against Seattle as an 8.5-point favorite last Sunday. Denver (1-1) got their first win of the season with their 16-9 victory at home against Houston as a 10.5-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers held the Seahawks to just 216 yards in their victory last week. The Niners once again have one of the best defenses in the NFL. After ranking third in the league by allowing only 310.0 total Yards-Per-Game last season, they are giving up just 210.0 total YPG this year along with only 13.0 Points-Per-Game.
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09-25-22 |
Chiefs v. Colts +7 |
Top |
17-20 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 56 m |
Show
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At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (472) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (471). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (0-1-1) looks to rebound from their 24-0 upset loss at Jacksonville as a 3-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (2-0) returns to action after their 27-24 win against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 4-point favorite for Thursday Night Football last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS PLUS THE POINTS: Indianapolis has been a train wreck so far this season. They entered the fourth quarter of their opening game at Houston trailing by a 20-3 score before scoring 17 points in the fourth quarter to force overtime — but they fired their kicker when he failed to convert the potential game-winning kick in that game as they settled for the tie (ie: half-win). The Colts then managed only 218 yards in getting shutout last week against the Jaguars. Their -3 net turnover margin did not help their cause last week. All of the sudden, Matt Ryan looks old — he has four interceptions and been involved with five fumbles. Injuries have played a role with linebacker Shaquille Leonard out and the wide receiver corps depleted last week. The good news for head coach Frank Reich is that he expects both Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce to return to action after being out last week — so getting these targets back will help Ryan. While the 37-year-old’s arm strength has declined, he did still complete 67.0% of his passes last year for 3968 yards for a bad Atlanta team. After getting shutout last week, this is a “put-up or shut-up” game for this team. Look for the Colts to play their best game of the season against the Chiefs. This remains a team that was 9-8 last year while outscoring their opponents by +5.8 Points-Per-Game. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a loss to an AFC South rival. Additionally, the Colts have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread setback. Furthermore, Indy is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. This team needs to show more urgency earlier in the game to not dig themselves a hole and require them to abandon Jonathan Taylor and their running game. The Colts only rushed for 54 yards last week — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not rushing for at least 90 yards in their last game. After playing the first two games of the season on the road, Indianapolis returns home for their first game of the year at Lucas Oil Stadium where they are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Colts have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 home games when an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Kansas City was in danger of getting upset at home last week before they picked off a Justin Herbert pass at the goal line and returned it 99 yards for the game-winning touchdown. That was a 14-point swing. The Chiefs got outgained, 401-319, in the victory. Kansas City has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a narrow win by a field goal or less at home. And while Kansas City has scored 71 combined points in their first two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. I don’t have many bad things to say about the Chiefs — as I expected, Patrick Mahomes is doing a great job spreading the ball around in the post-Tyreek Hill era. But stopping the run can be an issue for this team — they ranked 21st in the league by allowing 117.6 rushing YPG last year. The defense will be without linebacker Willie Gay for this game as he serves out a suspension. Defensive end Mike Danna did not practice on Thursday and is questionable to play with a calf — and he is one of the team’s best run defenders. Running teams like the Colts are the type of team that can give Kansas City problems. The Chiefs have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. They shave also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in September.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas City just wants to leave Indianapolis with the win rather than cover the point spread — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a losing record. Indianapolis has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games against teams with a winning record. The Colts have looked as bad as any team in the league in the first two weeks — but they still may have the best roster in the AFC South and this is an urgent situation for them. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the Indianapolis Colts (472) plus the points versus the Kansas City Chiefs (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-22-22 |
Steelers v. Browns UNDER 38.5 |
Top |
17-29 |
Loss |
-110 |
23 h 52 m |
Show
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At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (301) and the Cleveland Browns (302). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (1-1) looks to rebound from a 17-14 loss to New England as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Cleveland (1-1) looks to bounce back from a 31-30 upset loss at home to the New York Jets as a 6.5-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The low total in this game is daring bettors to take the Over — but let’s not take the sugar. The Steelers managed only 243 total yards last week in the narrow loss to the Patriots — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not gaining at least 250 yards in their last game. They have also played 4 straight Unders after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. The Pittsburgh offense is held back by an offensive line that is still a work in progress — and they are not getting challenging defenses with their vertical passing game under quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. The Steelers are scoring only 18.5 Points-Per-Game — and seven of those points came from a pick-six in their opening week upset win at Cincinnati. Pittsburgh has only managed two offensive touchdowns from the 255.0 total Yards-Per-Game they are averaging. Pittsburgh has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total on the road after a narrow loss by three points or less. Furthermore, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Now they go back on the road where the Under is a decisive 44-18-1 in their last 63 games. Additionally, the Steelers have played 6 straight Unders in the first month of the season — and they have played 4 straight Unders against fellow AFC North opponents. Cleveland has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 26 of their last 34 games at home Under the Total after losing their last game. And while their first two games of the season have finished Over the Total, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing two straight Unders. The Browns are allowing 27.5 PPG despite holding both opponents to 331.5 total YPG. Cleveland still has an outstanding defense that ranked 5th in the NFL by holding their opponents to 311.5 total YPG. JaDeveon Clowney will miss this game due to injury but Myles Garrett is expected to play after missing practice on Thursday. Cleveland has held their first two opponents to 54 and 93 rushing yards — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 99 rushing yards in two straight games. And while the Browns generated 405 yards against the Jets last week, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Cleveland returns home where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total for Thursday Night Football.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total — and they have played 7 of their last 9 encounters Under the Total when playing in Cleveland. It may be scary to play the Under with the number so low — but that is the point. Both teams will likely struggle to score touchdowns in the Red Zone. 25* AFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (301) and the Cleveland Browns (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-19-22 |
Vikings v. Eagles OVER 49.5 |
Top |
7-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 43 m |
Show
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At 8:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (291) and the Philadelphia Eagles (292). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (1-0) comes off a 23-7 victory at home against Green Bay as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (1-0) defeated the Lions in Detroit last Sunday by a 38-35 score as a 6-point favorite.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Kirk Cousins completed 23 of 32 passes for 277 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions in the victory against the Packers last week. He seems to be more comfortable under new head coach Kevin O’Connell who was his quarterback coach in Washington in 2017.
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09-18-22 |
Bears v. Packers UNDER 43 |
Top |
10-27 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 40 m |
Show
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At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (287) and the Green Bay Packers (288). THE SITUATION: Chicago (1-0) won their opener with a 19-10 upset win against San Francisco as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay looks to rebound from their 23-7 loss at Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Packers should be more effective on offense this week after Aaron Rodgers was ineffective in his first game playing without his security blanket Davante Adams. But Rodgers is clearly not comfortable with the two rookies the team drafted, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, and he does not have the same confidence in veterans like Sammie Watkins or Randall Cobb as he did with Adams. Unlike Patrick Mahomes who had his group of wide receivers spend time with him in Fort Worth, Texas to bond and develop some passing chemistry with him, Rodgers did whatever he does in the offseason that is away from football. His tough-love approach to freeze out Watson after he dropped a likely touchdown pass from a bomb from Rodgers in his first target in the game was not the best way to nurture his confidence. The passing game is going to be a work in progress for the Packers for a while. Green Bay’s formula for success will be to run the football behind Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon — and for Rodgers to continue their touches in the passing game. Expect longer possessions from them tonight as they burn the clock. But the Packers need to play better on defense after they allowed the Vikings to generate 6.5 Yards-Per-Play and 395 total yards against them. The Green Bay defense should be a strength after they drafted two of the hot shots from the Georgia defense in the first round of the NFL draft, defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt and linebacker Quan Walker, to help a group that ranked ninth in the league by allowing 328.2 Yards-Per-Game. The Packers have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. They have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Kirk Cousins passed for 269 yards against them — just under 50 passing YPG above their season average last year. But Green Bay has played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game. Chicago only gained 204 yards last week in their upset win against the 49ers. That mark along with their 3.8 Yards-Per-Play average was the lowest offensive numbers in the league last week. The Bears have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset win as an underdog. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The second-year quarterback completed 8 of 17 passes for 121 yards dealing with the rainstorm conditions in the south of Chicago during that game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. He lacks reliable weapons in the passing game outside of wide receiver Darnell Mooney. But expect more solid defensive efforts from this team moving forward under a defensive head coach in Matt Eberflus who inherited a defense that ranked sixth in the NFL by allowing 316.7 total Yards-Per-Game. The Bears have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. Chicago has played 37 of their last 58 road games Under the Total as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points — and Green Bay has played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on December 12th when Green Bay won by a 45-30 score at Lambeau Field in a game that Fields was under center for the Bears. Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry can use that game tape to slow down Fields this time around. The Packers did respond to their 38-3 loss to New Orleans in the opener last year by returning home to Lambeau where they crushed Detroit by a 35-17 score — but he had Adams in that game who caught eight of his nine targets for 121 receiving yards. Rodgers is going to continue to eye-roll at his wide receivers failing him tonight because he wants the world to know that it is not his fault (it never is) — so expect more offensive drives that settle for field goals rather than five touchdowns. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (287) and the Green Bay Packers (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-18-22 |
Patriots -2.5 v. Steelers |
Top |
17-14 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 38 m |
Show
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At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New England Patriots (275) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (276). THE SITUATION: New England (0-1) looks to rebound from their 20-7 loss in Miami to the Dolphins as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Pittsburgh (1-0) comes off a 23-20 upset victory in overtime at Cincinnati as a 7.5-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PATRIOTS PLUS THE POINTS: New England fell behind early and went into halftime trailing by a 17-0 score. One of those Dolphins’ touchdowns came from a fumble recovery on the Patriots' 2-yard line that they scooped a returned into the end zone. New England had a -3 net turnover margin. It was a disappointing effort — and the critics of Bill Belichick were quick to use this first game as evidence that he is past his prime. Look, I’m not a fan of Matt Patricia — but his impact as the team’s offensive coordinator is overblown. Belichick started as a wide receiver’s coach in the 70s. Los Angeles Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris coached the offensive side of the ball when on the Atlanta Falcons’ staff during the Dan Quinn era. Coaches like Belichick simply think that “coaching is coaching” — and that a defensive coach moving to the other side of the ball is akin to a prosecutor moving into private practice as a defense attorney. It is simply too early to pass judgment — especially when Belichick has declared on many occasions that he does not finish the installation of the offense each season until the end of September. So, let’s not overreact. New England has often struggled when playing at Miami. Tom Brady lost ten of his eighteen starts on the road against the Dolphins when playing for the Patriots. In those ten losses, New England scored just 17.5 Points-Per-Game and averaged 293.5 total Yards-Per-Game. In Brady’s trip to Miami in 2006, the Dolphins shut him out while holding him to 189 total yards. For the record, the Patriots finished 12-4 that season before losing to Peyton Manning’s Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Championship Game. New England only ran the ball 22 times against the Dolphins — and the strength of this team will be them running the ball and leaning on their outstanding defense. The Patriots were second in the league by allowing 17.8 PPG. Belichick is not receiving enough credit for leading his team into the playoffs last year with a rookie quarterback. They outscored their opponents by +9.4 PPG with them generating 27.2 PPG and ranking 15th in the NFL by averaging 353.4 total YPG. It is telling that despite all the naysayers about this team this week, the bookies still list New England as the road favorite for this game. The Patriots have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after a double-digit loss to a divisional rival. And while they held the Dolphins to just 65 rushing yards, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last game. Additionally, New England has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in Week Two of the regular season under Belichick — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored. We were on Pittsburgh last week — and it was great to see them benefit from a +5 net turnover margin including a 31-yard interception return for a touchdown. The Steelers got outgained by -165 net yards. It was a huge win for this team — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset victory as an underdog. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a victory by seven points or less. The Steelers only gained 267 yards of offense with quarterback Mitchell Trubisky averaging just 5.1 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. They allowed the Bengals to gain 432 total yards — and not only have they failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 400 or more yards in their last game but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after getting outgained by at least 100 yards in their last contest. Now Pittsburgh returns home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 38.5 to 42 point range. Furthermore, the Steelers will be without T.J. Watt who is on Injured Reserve after tearing his pectoral muscle last week.
FINAL TAKE: While Belichick tends to struggle on the road against the Dolphins, he has a great track record when coaching against Tomlin. New England has beaten Pittsburgh in five of their last six meetings with the average score being 30-18.7 — they have a +68 net point differential in those six games. The Patriots have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 trips to Pittsburgh. The last time New England began the season 0-2 was in 2001 which happens to the season Brady took over as the team’s quarterback. 25* AFC Game of the Month with the New England Patriots (275) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (276). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-15-22 |
Chargers v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 |
Top |
24-27 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 16 m |
Show
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At 8:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (103) and the Kansas City Chiefs (104). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (1-0) began the regular season with a 24-19 victory against Las Vegas as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Kansas City (1-0) opened the season with a 44-21 win at Arizona as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chargers flexed their muscles on defense by holding the Raiders to just 320 yards of total offense. Linebacker Khalil Mack looked rejuvenated in a Chargers uniform after being signed in the offseason from Chicago. He joined linebacker Joey Bosa to combine for 16 hits on Las Vegas quarterback Derek Carr. I am expecting a significant bump in the play of this Los Angeles defense in the second season under head coach Brandon Staley. The team hopes to have free agent cornerback J.C. Jackson take the field tonight after he missed Sunday’s game with an ankle injury. The former New England star is one of the best cover corners in the league. The Chargers have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. They have also played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total in September. The LA offense was not dynamic last week against the Raiders as they only gained 355 total yards — down more than 35 yards from their season average last year. They did control time of possession for 32:32 minutes in that game which will probably be their formula tonight. Wide receiver Keenan Allen has been declared out with a hamstring injury which will make Mike Williams the primary option and elevate Joshua Palmer into the starting lineup. Losing Allen is significant since Williams had seven drops last year and Palmer lacks down-the-field speed. Allen is the glue to this group. With the addition of Sony Michel who was cut by Miami, look for the Chargers to run the ball more with a rotation of Austin Ekeler, Joshua Kelley, Isaiah Spiller, and Michel. I definitely expect Staley to have his defense play a two-high safety zone that frustrated Patrick Mahomes last season. Inexplicably the Cardinals opted to play a single high safety and bring the blitz early and often against Mahomes last week. I like Arizona defensive coordinator Vance Joseph — but I would sure like to hear his rationale for bypassing the two high safeties and opting to blitz on 53% of the Chiefs’ dropbacks. Mahomes punishes the blitz. Opposing defenses found success against him by playing that two-high safety zone defense that takes away the deep ball. Now I do believe Mahomes put himself in a much better position than say, Aaron Rodgers, to be patient and take what the defense will give him this season in the first year without Tyreek Hill. The Chiefs generated 33 first downs and controlled the clock for 34:42 minutes in their easy win against the Cardinals. Mahomes had a fantastic statistical afternoon — going 30 of 39 for 360 yards with five touchdown passes — but the drives were not as quick-strike without Hill. And, hey, what do ya know? The defense benefited from the long drives as they held Kyler Murray and the Arizona offense to just 282 total yards. Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after gaining at least 24 first downs while having the offense on the field for at least 34 minutes in their last previous game. The Chiefs ranked 8th in the NFL last year by allowing 21.4 Points-Per-Game — and they performed much better when they acquired Melvin Ingram midseason which allowed them to move Chris Jones back to defensive tackle. While Ingram is now gone, they drafted Purdue’s disruptive defensive tackle George Karlaftis in the first round to replace him and keep Jones at his preferred inside position. Additionally, Kansas City kicker (and fantasy gem) Harrison Butker is out for this game — they activated Matt Ammendola from the practice squad to kick field goals and extra points (which does not hurt our case for the Under).
FINAL TAKE: Both games between these two teams had at least 54 combined points scored — so I understand the arguments for the Over. But Staley is leaning-in to light boxes to defend against the pass which begs opposing offenses to run the ball. The Chargers allowed opponents to average 5.5 Yards-Per-Carry against their light boxes last year. I expect Kansas City to have success on offense — but with long drives and less explosiveness. It does not take much in the game script to get off the pace to finish Over 54 points. And then when you add the short week for both teams and my expectation that Staley calms down on his zeal to go for it on every fourth down, look for a lower-scoring game than expected. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Chargers (103) and the Kansas City Chiefs (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-12-22 |
Broncos v. Seahawks +7 |
Top |
16-17 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 53 m |
Show
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At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (482) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (481). THE SITUATION: Seattle (0-0) begins the post-Russell Wilson era coming off a 7-10 season. Denver (0-0) begins their Russell Wilson era after finishing 7-10 last year.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Many pundits consider the Broncos as a Super Bowl favorite after their heavy investment in Wilson as their franchise quarterback. Yet this is a flawed football team that has endured five-straight losing seasons. There are depth concerns at wide receiver after Tim Patrick suffered a season-ending injury in the preseason. Wilson is getting a downgrade at wide receiver after enjoying the talents of Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. Jerry Jeudy did not have a touchdown pass last year and Courtland Sutton has failed to seize the mantle as a number one receiver for this team. The Denver defense is overrated with good frontline numbers bolstered by a ball control offense. The Broncos' offense under head coach Vic Fangio ranked 5th in the league by averaging 29.45 seconds per play last year. Their opponent’s average starting position was on the 26.0-yard line, the second-best mark in the league. Denver ranked 3rd in the NFL by allowing only 18.9 Points-Per-Game but they also lead the league by holding their opponents to just 16.2 drives per game. They ranked 8th in total defense — but the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders ranked their defense as 20th in the league which is probably a more accurate measure as to what to expect this season. Now a rookie head coach takes over the team with first-time offensive and defensive coordinators. Maybe this team makes a deep playoff run — but at the very least I expect some growing pains. Maybe Nathaniel Hackett will be an instant success — but I remain puzzled how he is the boy genius as the Green Bay offensive coordinator who gets none of the blame for the Packers' postseason issues while all the blame goes to Aaron Rodgers and head coach Matt LaFleur. Seems pretty convenient — and Sutton and Jeudy were innocent victims of bad quarterback play. And, of course, Russell Wilson is the only reason why Seattle enjoyed nine-straight winning seasons with Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll holding him back from even more success because he simply would not “let him cook.” To buy into the Denver hype, one must be willing to assess all blame elsewhere. I’m skeptical that it is that simple. If Wilson has lost a step with his mobility and has to rely more on his dropback skills, he may not be quite as good as he was in the past. His size prohibits him from making certain throws on the field. That is not a death knell — Drew Brees was quite effective even in the latter years of his career. But Wilson does not have Brees’ accuracy. Wilson tends to not see open receivers and can be too “all-or-nothing.” Maybe that changes with a better offensive line — but he is adjusting to a new system. Yes, Wilson had input in the offense to have it tailored to his expectations — but that was exactly what we heard last year when Carroll hired Shane Waldron as his offensive coordinator from the Los Angeles Rams (Sean McVay! Sean McVay!). As it is, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road when favored. And in their last 6 games on Monday Night Football, the Broncos are 1-4-1 ATS. Seattle needed the influx of young talent after years of decline in the quality on the roster. Wilson’s big contract did not help the organization’s ability to manage the salary cap. The Seahawks had their first top-ten draft pick in a decade in the spring — and they brought in several rookies who will make an impact tonight. Seattle had 9.3 wins using the Pythagorean model — so this was probably a better team than their 7-10 record suggests. They lost five of their eight games decided by one scoring possession. They outscored their opponents by +1.7 Points-Per-Game. Yes, moving to Geno Smith at quarterback is a downgrade to Wilson with the team likely to draft a rookie in the first round to become their franchise quarterback next year. But Smith did have a Passer Rating of 103.0 last year as compared to Wilson’s 103.1 Passer Rating (albeit playing through an injury). What Smith does offer is the elimination of any pressure to force the passing game to make the quarterback happy as has been the case in the past. Seattle is going to run the football and attempt to control time of possession — the formula that helped Denver produce their good defensive numbers in the past. Rashaad Penny rushed for 671 yards with seven touchdowns in his final seven games last year — and he averaged +2.1 yards-per-carry above the metrics expected yards-per-carry. The offensive line has been significantly upgraded with free agent Austin Blythe from Kansas City at center and two early draft picks in Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas joining the mix. The defense will be better simply by being on the field less. While the offense averaged only 56.1 plays per game, the defense was on the field for 70.6 plays per game. That -14.5 net difference was the 4th worst in the NFL since 1950. It is that dynamic that Carroll gets to address with Wilson gone. No, this is not a Super Bowl team — but the rebuild begins and this defense shapes up to be sneaky better than expected. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games as an underdog. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.
FINAL TAKE: Wilson will feel some pressure returning to Lumen Field — and he is the one with Super Bowl expectations. Seattle has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in September — and no one knows Wilson better than Carroll who has had the entire offseason to prepare to defend against his former quarterback. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (482) plus the points versus the Denver Broncos (481). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-11-22 |
Bucs -1.5 v. Cowboys |
Top |
19-3 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (480). THE SITUATION: Tampa Bay (0-0) comes off a 13-4 season after losing at home to the Los Angeles Rams by a 30-27 score in the NFC divisional round of the playoffs. Dallas (0-0) lost in the NFC wildcard round in a 23-17 loss at home to San Francisco.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCCANEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Tampa Bay has significant offensive line issues after former Pro Bowler Ali Marpet retired in the offseason and then center Ryan Jensen got injured during the preseason. But the Buccaneers still have All-Pro Tristan Wirfs at right tackle — and they signed Shaq Mason from New England to replace Market at guard in the offseason. Tampa Bay’s starting offensive line should still be fine — the bigger problem is the lack of any margin for error when it comes to injury since the depth has been depleted. It certainly helps to have Tom Brady under center who not only is one of the best ever with his footwork in his pocket but also has the veteran savvy to manage a pass rush. Brady missed much of the preseason for his mysterious mid-camp “sabbatical” — but the reports out of camp were that he was quite good in his abbreviated time with the team. This is a redemption season for Brady and this team after they seemed to lose focus last year after winning the Super Bowl. The Bucs were flat in the first half when hosting the Rams in the playoffs before almost pulling off a big rally in the second half. The sting of that loss and the reset this organization made by elevating Todd Bowles from defensive coordinator to their head coach should motivate this team. Brady will not have wide receiver Chris Godwin tonight — but he still has a loaded wide receiver room that added Julio Jones and Russell Gage in the offseason along with tight end Kyle Rudolph to complement Mike Evans and Scottie Miller. The Buccaneers’ defense should be outstanding after ranking 5th in the league by allowing 20.8 Points-Per-Game. Injuries played a role in their Super Bowl hangover last year — but this team still outscored their opponents by +9.3 Points-Per-Game. Tampa Bay has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against NFC opponents. The Buccaneers have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Dallas has even more troubling offensive line issues. Left tackle Tyron Smith injured his hamstring in the preseason which will keep him out indefinitely — and the Cowboys have historically seen a significant dip in their scoring output when Smith is not available. Frankly, quarterback Dan Prescott is likely playing behind the worst offensive line since being drafted by Dallas. His early success with the team came with him playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Only right guard Zack Martin remains from those units (with Smith injured). They cut right tackle La’El Collins in the offseason. The Cowboys will be relying on rookie first-round draft pick Tyler Smith at left tackle — but he committed 12 penalties in his 12 starts for Tulsa last year. Jason Peters may eventually be their left tackle after he was signed off the street — but the 40-year-old is on the practice squad getting into shape. The Dallas wide receiver room lost two key contributors in Amari Cooper and Cedric Wilson in the offseason — and they will not have the injured Michael Gallup for this game. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Buccaneers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. In Brady, I Trust for this one. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (479) minus the points versus the Dallas Cowboys (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-13-22 |
Rams v. Bengals +4 |
Top |
23-20 |
Win
|
100 |
329 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (102) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (101) in the Super Bowl. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (13-7) advanced to the Super Bowl with their 27-24 upset win at Kansas City in overtime as a 7-point underdog on Sunday (January 30th). Los Angeles (15-5) joined them later that evening with their 20-17 victory against San Francisco as a 3.5-point favorite. This game takes place in the Rams’ SoFi Stadium, making them the de-facto home team.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS: The best player on the field in the AFC Championship Game was Joe Burrow. The stats say he completed 23 of 38 passes for 250 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. He miraculously avoided defensive tackle, Chris Jones, twice on a crucial play to run for a first down in the second half — part of the 25 yards he added on the ground. But his biggest influence remains in his unwavering belief that he will lead his team to a victory. This is what he did at LSU — and he is already doing it in Cincinnati. It is time to jump on board — and the evidence is staring at us. The Bengals have nine games this season against teams who made the playoffs. They won and covered the point spread in 7 of those contests. They beat and covered the point spread twice against Kansas City, Las Vegas, and Pittsburgh — and they beat and covered the point spread on the road against the AFC top-seeded team in Tennessee (that beat Kansas City, Buffalo, San Francisco, and these Rams in Los Angeles during the regular season). Furthermore, their two losses to playoff teams were against Green Bay and the 49ers by just a field goal in each occasion. The debate over whether or not this Bengals team is battle-tested is over. And while I was already sold on Burrow, the convincing case made by Cincinnati in their victory against the Chiefs was the play of their defense in holding Patrick Mahomes to just a field goal in the entire second half for the second time this month. The Bengals have not allowed more than 21 points in five of their last seven games — those two exceptions were against Kansas City in games where they still pulled off the victory. Cincinnati has now covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Additionally, the Bengals have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games if they are riding a point spread streak of at least three games (they enter the Super Bowl on a 7-0 ATS run). Cincinnati has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. The Bengals have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Cincinnati is a dangerous underdog playing with house money this early in Burrow’s career after entering the season with 150-1 odds to win the Super Bowl. Matthew Stafford, Sean McVay, and the rest of this Los Angeles team, on the other hand, have the weight of the world on them to win the Super Bowl. For the second straight season, a team will be playing in their home stadium for the Super Bowl — but I do not see the Rams enjoying the same advantage as the Buccaneers did last season. Los Angeles did not have the home crowd edge in their two games with the 49ers this month — it is highly unlikely they will have an overly partisan crowd advantage now. Staying at home in Los Angeles leaves this Rams roster full of big personalities with plenty of distractions that did not exist in Tampa Bay last year — and they do not have a Tom Brady providing executive leadership either. Playing at home may play into the pressure issues the Rams are already facing. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. Regarding Stafford and his ability to handle pressure, if Jaquiski Tartt does not drop the wounded duck of a pass that he threw midway through the fourth quarter, the Niners might/probably win that game. The last time McVay had his team in the Super Bowl, they only scored three points in their 13-3 loss to New England in 2018. Looking at the team trends evidence, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after winning two games in a row. And while they have won six of their last seven games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Stafford did pass for 337 yards against San Francisco — but Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 300 yards in their last game. The Rams played ten games against teams who made the playoffs this season — but they won only five of those contests (after winning three games in the postseason) while failing to cover the point spread in 6 of these games.
FINAL TAKE: Underdogs have covered the point spread in 5 of the last 6 games in this postseason starting in the divisional round of the playoffs. While I don’t consider that actionable evidence by itself, I do think it is illustrative that this NFL season has consisted of flawed teams competing for the championship. I don’t think either of these teams would fare well against the recent Super Bowl winners — but maybe that assessment is still under-appreciating what the Bengals have accomplished. Cincinnati has the edge at quarterback. 25* NFL Game of the Year with the Cincinnati Bengals (102) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-13-22 |
Rams v. Bengals UNDER 50 |
Top |
23-20 |
Win
|
100 |
327 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Super Bowl between the Cincinnati Bengals (102) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (101). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (13-7) advanced to the Super Bowl with their 27-24 upset win at Kansas City in overtime as a 7-point underdog on Sunday (January 30th). Los Angeles (15-5) joined them later that evening with their 20-17 victory against San Francisco as a 3.5-point favorite. This game takes place in the Rams’ SoFi Stadium, making them the de-facto home team.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Joe Burrow and Matthew Stafford may get most of the attention for both these teams — but both of these offensive head coaches value their running game to help their underrated defenses. The Bengals controlled the Time of Possession by being on offense for 35:56 minutes against the Chiefs to hold them just under 40 yards below their season Yards-Per-Game average. Cincinnati has held five of their last seven opponents to no more than 21 points. The Bengals have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a close win by six points or less — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Cincinnati has covered the point spread in seven straight games — and they have payed 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least three games in a row. And while their game with Kansas City finished below the 54.5. point total, they have then played 8 of their 11 games Under the Total after playing their last game Under the Total. This is a true road game for the Bengals playing the Rams in their SoFi Stadium — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road. They have also played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when the Total is set at 49.5 or higher. Los Angeles has held six of their last eight opponents to no more than 23 points after their victory against the 49ers — and they only gave up only 27 points in those other two contests. The Rams have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while Los Angeles has won six of their last seven games, they have then played 9 of their last 10 home games Under the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. The Rams have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 17 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when favored — and Cincinnati has palled 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* NFL Non-Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Super Bowl between the Cincinnati Bengals (102) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-30-22 |
49ers v. Rams UNDER 46.5 |
Top |
17-20 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 6:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (323) and the Los Angeles Rams (324) in the NFC Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: San Francisco (12-7) won their fourth straight game with their 13-10 upset victory at Green Bay as a 6-point underdog on Saturday. Los Angeles (14-5) won their fifth game in their last six with their 30-27 upset win at Tampa Bay as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The 49ers grinded out a low-scoring game where they only managed 212 yards while failing to score an offensive touchdown — but they held the Packers to just 263 total yards. San Francisco has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have played 23 of their last 32 games Under the Total after not gaining more than 250 total yards in their last game. They held Green Bay to just 67 rushing yards last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing at least 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Niners’ improvement on defense corresponds with the decision to move Arik Armstead into the interior of their defensive line. Since Week Nine, San Francisco is second in the NFL to Tampa Bay with 222 pressures on the quarterback. And after allowing 4.4 rushing Yards-Per-Carry in the first eight weeks of the season, the 49ers held their opponents to just 3.6 Yards-Per-Carry since — and their two playoff opponents have only averaged 3.5 YPC. Armstead thrives against the Rams. In his five games against them, he has 23 tackles, four hits on the quarterback, three sacks, two more tackles for loss, a forced fumble, and two knockdowns on passes. Armstead’s partnership with Nick Bosa allows the Niners to only rush three or four rushers — and this approach stymies Matthew Stafford and the Sean McVay offense. When only rushing three or four defenders, San Francisco still generates pressure in the 30% of their pass rushes in their two games against the Rams this season. Stafford has a 140 Passer Rating when blitzed this season — he chews up a defense with fewer defenders. But the Niners only blitzed 12.5% of the time against Stafford in their first two games. While holding Los Angeles to just 17.0 PPG, they sacked Stafford seven times while inducing four interceptions from three or four-man pressure. San Francisco has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the playoffs. Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after playing a game on the road where both teams scored at least 24 points. They held the Buccaneers to just 51 rushing yards — and they have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. And while Tom Brady passed for 308 net yards against them last week, they have played 5 straight Unders after allowing at last 250 passing yards in their last game. The Rams return home where they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They hold their guests to just 19.7 PPG at home at SoFi Stadium.
FINAL TAKE: These are two teams very familiar with the approaches of the two offensive head coaches. This is the third matchup between these two teams in 11 weeks. San Francisco has played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Los Angeles has played 17 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when favored. 25* NFL Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (323) and the Los Angeles Rams (324). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-30-22 |
Bengals v. Chiefs -6.5 |
Top |
27-24 |
Loss |
-130 |
39 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 3:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (322) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (321) in the AFC Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (14-5) won their 11th game in their last 12 contests with their 42-36 victory in overtime against Buffalo as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Cincinnati (12-7) won their fifth game in their last six contests with their 19-16 upset win at Tennessee as a 4-point underdog on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: Kansas City’s ability to survive their instant-classic with the Bills should only embolden them to reach the Super Bowl for the third straight season. They should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win. And while they have covered the point spread in both their playoff games as a favorite this postseason, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after covering their last two games as the favorite. The Chiefs did surrender 422 yards to Josh Allen and the Bills — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Kansas City has a significant experience edge with this team playing in their fourth straight AFC Championship Game. It starts with Patrick Mahomes who owns an 8-2 record in the postseason with his two lone losses being to Tom Brady. In his eight playoff games at home, Mahomes is 7-1 with 23 touchdown passes, just one interception, and a Passer Rating of 120.5. In the playoffs this year, Mahomes is completing 76% of his passes for 782 yards with 10 touchdown passes and one interception in his two games. The early-season problems he was encountering with two-high safety looks are long gone. The emergence of two dangerous counter options to Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill have helped. In the last five games, wide receiver Byron Pringle had 24 receptions from 33 targets for 232 yards with five touchdowns. Running back Jerick McKinnon has 33 touches for 220 yards in the two playoff games. And Mahomes brings two additional important intangibles to these playoff games. First, he is more likely to do damage with his legs. He ran the ball seven times for 69 yards against the Bills. In his ten playoff games, he has 52 rush attempts with a 5.8 Yards-Per-Carry average with five touchdowns — as opposed to the 3.8 rush attempts he averages per game in the regular season with only eight touchdowns in those 63 games. Second, Mahomes protects the football. He has thrown only one interception in his last 192 pass attempts. In his postseason career, he throws an interception once in every 77 throws and he has never fumbled. Kansas City hosts this game at Arrowhead Stadium where they will enjoy a significant home-field edge with a very loud crowd disrupting Joe Burrow. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 playoff games at home. Cincinnati is happy to be in this position — but they might impact their sense of urgency. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset win. I love Burrow — but they beat a flat Titans team last week that was the lowest-rated number one or two seed according to the DVOA metrics at Football Outsiders. Cincinnati only outgained their opponents in the regular season by +5.1 net Yards-Per-Game. On the road, the Bengals are getting outgained by -18.1 net YPG despite playing only two playoff teams away from home in the regular season (and they got outgained last week to the Titans). Burrow was sacked nine times against the Titans with head coach Zac Taylor failing to change schemes to offer him more short or intermediate routes (or a screen pass!) rather than condemning him to yet another coverage sack. Cincinnati does not have a good offensive line. And I think the Chiefs’ have a significant advantage with Andy Reid along with his coordinators Eric Bienemy and Steve Spagnuolo. The Bengals are an organization that is 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games in the playoffs.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas City will not take this Bengals team lightly after getting upset by them in Cincinnati on January 2nd by a 34-31 score as a 3.5-point underdog. The Chiefs blew a 14-point lead in that game while committing 10 penalties and too many mental errors in that game. Mahomes has won four of his five opportunities in the playoffs to avenge a regular-season loss to their opponent — and Kansas City has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when avenging an upset loss. 25* AFC Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (322) minus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-23-22 |
Bills v. Chiefs |
Top |
36-42 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs (318) minus the point(s) versus the Buffalo Bills (317) in their AFC Divisional playoff game. THE SITUATION: Kansas City (13-5) has won ten of their last eleven games after their 42-21 victory against Pittsburgh last Sunday as an 11-point favorite. Buffalo (12-6) is on a five-game winning streak after their 47-17 win against New England as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS: After an early-season slide where they lost four of their six games, this Kansas City team was driven to redeem themselves from losing in last year’s Super Bowl are clicking on all cylinders now. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Chiefs have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Kansas City seized the better record over the Bills in the regular season which allows them to host this crucial showdown. Patrick Mahomes has won six of his seven starts at home at Arrowhead Stadium while averaging 310.3 passing Yards-Per-Game. He has thrown 20 touchdown passes to just one interception in his seven home playoff games while posting a 120.1 Passer Rating. Head coach Andy Reid will give him the green light to run the ball more given the winner-takes-all stakes of this game. The Chiefs’ defense has been tough at home as well as they hold their opponents to 17.9 Points-Per-Game and just 337.6 total Yards-Per-Game. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 playoff games at home. The Chiefs have also found themselves yet another weapon on offense with the emergence of running back Jerick McKinnon. The former Vikings and Niners player had 18 touches for 143 yards from scrimmage against the Steelers last week while giving Mahomes a nice weapon in the screen passing game. Kansas City has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Chiefs have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Buffalo propped up their stats with some blowout wins (mostly against lesser opponents) this season. But they lost all five of their games decided by one-scoring possession — one of the biggest reasons why I side with Mahomes versus Josh Allen tonight. The Bills are just 1-3-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. And while they enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin last week against the Patriots, they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. But now they go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 road games after winning at least four games in a row. And while Buffalo has covered the point spread in four of their last five games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the Bills’ 38-20 upset victory in Kansas City on October 10th as a 2.5-point underdog. The Chiefs left many points on the field with many mental miscues and a few bad bounces that ruined drives. KC was also missing defensive stars Chris Jones and Charvarius Ward to injury in that game — and they had yet to acquire Melvin Ingram from Pittsburgh. After adding Ingram to their defensive line, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo moved Jones back to his preferred inside position on the line — and the defense immediately improved. The Chiefs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from an upset loss. 25* NFL Divisional Playoff Game of the Year with the Kansas City Chiefs (318) minus the point(s) versus the Buffalo Bills (317). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-23-22 |
Rams v. Bucs OVER 48 |
Top |
30-27 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (315) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (316) in their NFC Divisional playoff game. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (13-5) won their sixth game in their last seven with their 34-11 victory against Arizona as a 3-point favorite on Monday. Tampa Bay (14-4) has won four in a row and eight of their last nine with their 31-15 victory against Philadelphia as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Rams score 27.4 Points-Per-Game — and they have scored 28 or more points in six of their last eight games. The Over is 9-4-1 in Los Angeles’ last 14 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a victory by double-digits. Furthermore, the Rams have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after holding their last opponent to no more than 14 points. And while their win against the Cardinals finished Under the 48.5 point total, Los Angeles has then played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing an Under in their last game. The Rams travel east for this game — the Over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games on the road. Los Angeles has played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total with the Total set in the 45.5. to 49 point range. Additionally, the Rams have played 10 of their last 11 games Over the Total as an underdog in all situations — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Tampa Bay has played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after a win by 14 or more points — and they have played 14 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a point spread win. They stay at home where they are scoring 33.0 PPG and averaging 409.8 total Yards-Per-Game. The Buccaneers have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total when favored — and they have played 8 of their last 12 home games Over the Total when favored by up to seven points. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 19 of their last 27 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.
FINAL TAKE: The Rams won the first meeting between these two teams on September 26th in a 34-24 victory with the Total set at 55. That was the 5th straight Over between these two teams. The Buccaneers have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 28 points. 25* NFC Divisional Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (315) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (316). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-22-22 |
49ers v. Packers -5.5 |
Top |
13-10 |
Loss |
-102 |
5 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Green Bay Packers (304) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (303) in their NFC Divisional playoff series. THE SITUATION: Green Bay (13-4) takes the field again after their 37-30 upset loss at Detroit as a 4-point favorite to close out their regular season on January 9th. San Francisco (11-7) won their third straight game and fifth of their last six contests with their 23-17 upset win at Dallas as a 3.5-point underdog in the wild card playoff round last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Even assuming that Jimmy Garoppolo is close to full strength with his nagging thumb and shoulder injuries that have kept him questionable to play all week, this is a very challenging set of circumstances for the 49ers. They have pulled off two straight upset victories in must-win circumstances after reaching the playoffs in Week 18 with their underdog win in Los Angeles against the Rams. This is the third straight game on the road for the Niners — and that is a ton of air travel for a team that has flown back home after their last two wins. Now San Francisco travels across the country east for the second straight week — albeit on a short six-day week as well. As it is, the 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing at least two straight games on the road. And while San Francisco has covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in two straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in their only three games in the last three seasons under head coach Kyle Shanahan when they had covered the point spread three games in a row. I do worry about an even 100% Garoppolo if asked to keep up with Aaron Rodgers tonight. How will he perform in weather conditions in the single digits and probably below zero with the wind chill? He struggles when put off script — he is completing just 54% of his passes in the second half in playoff games when off script with a low Passer Rating of 49 in those situations. Green Bay is rested and ready for the challenge — and they should be feisty after getting upset by the Lions. Granted, head coach Matt LaFleur rested starters in the second half of that game — but the Packers went into halftime trailing by a 17-13 score despite Rodgers playing the entire first half. Green Bay has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after getting upset in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. The Packers get some reinforcements back on defense with linebacker Za’Darius Smith and Whitney Mercilus and cornerback Jaire Alexander all expected to return to action tonight. The offensive line also gets starters David Bakhtiari, Billy Turner, and Josh Myers back from injury. Rodgers will not mind the frigid temperatures — he has a 29-1 record straight-up when the temperature is no higher than 32 degrees. Against playoff teams this season, Green Bay has a 5-0 record with Rodgers throwing 10 touchdown passes with only one interception. The Packers are 8-0 at home in Lambeau Field this season with a +15.8 net point differential. Rodgers has 20 touchdown passes and just one interception in those games with the offense scoring 30.6 PPG. The Green Bay defense has held their opponents to just 16.8 PPG. The Packers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Green Bay has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 playoff games at home.
FINAL TAKE: Dealing with the physical style of play that the 49ers bring to the table under Shanahan had been a problem for the Packers — highlighted by their 37-20 loss in the playoffs two years ago when they gave up 285 rushing yards. But that game was in San Francisco — and Green Bay has won both meetings with the Niners since including a 30-28 victory back at Levi’s Stadium on September 26th. The 49ers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when motivated by revenge. 25* NFL Saturday Night Television Game of the Year with the Green Bay Packers (304) minus the points versus the San Francisco 49ers (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-22-22 |
Bengals v. Titans OVER 47 |
Top |
19-16 |
Loss |
-108 |
6 h 58 m |
Show
|
At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (301) and the Tennessee Titans (302) in their AFC Divisional Round playoff game. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (11-7) advanced from the AFC Wild Card playoffs with their 26-19 win against Las Vegas as a 6-point favorite last Saturday. Tennessee (12-5) returns to action after their 28-25 victory at Houston as an 11-point favorite on January 9th in their final regular-season game.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: While the Titans’ offense has not been at full-strength often this season, Ryan Tannehill will have all his weapons this afternoon with running back Derrick Henry and wide receivers A.J. Brown and Julio Jones all expected to play. Tennessee scored 27.3 Points-Per-Game even at less than full strength on offense in their four victories against playoff teams in San Francisco, the Los Angeles Rams, Kansas City, and Buffalo. The Titans enter the postseason averaging 27.3 PPG in their last three games after scoring 34 and 28 points in their last two contests. Tennessee has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after scoring at least 25 points in two straight games. The Titans are on a three-game winning streak — and they have played 13 of their last 15 games Over the Total after winning three of their last four games. Tannehill completed 23 of 32 passes for 287 yards with four touchdown passes while leading the offense to 425 total yards in their final regular-season game. Tennessee has played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after gaining at least 400 yards in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. The Titans have also played 23 of their last 33 games Over the Total after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread. And while the Texans gained 353 yards against the Tennessee defense, the Titans have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Davis Mills led a Houston offense that passed for 289 yards in that game. While Tennessee has a potent pass rush, their defensive backs do get burned — they rank 25th in the NFL by allowing 245 passing YPG. Here comes perhaps the most dynamic trio of wider receivers in the NFL in Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd of the Bengals. Second-year quarterback Joe Burrow has passed for 525, 446, and then 244 yards last week in his last three starts (he did not play in the Bengals’ final regular-season game against Cleveland). He has 10 touchdown passes and no interceptions in these last three starts — and completed at least 70.6% of his passes with at least a 110.4 Passer Rating in each of those three games. Cincinnati has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a point spread win. And while the Bengals have won four of their last five games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after winning at least four or five of the last six games. But the Cincinnati defense did give up 385 yards to the Raiders last week — and they have played 5 straight Overs after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The injuries to defensive tackles Larry Ogunjobi and Mike Daniels further expose a suspect defense that already ranked just 25th in the weighted DVOA metric at Football Outsiders.
FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati has played 5 of their last 6 trips to Nashville to play the Titans. The Over is 12-5-1 in Tennessee’s last 18 games against teams with a winning record. The Titans will score their share of points in this game with their weapons back in tow — but Burrow should be able to keep things interesting for the Bengals. Expect a higher-scoring game. 25* AFC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Cincinnati Bengals (301) and the Tennessee Titans (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-17-22 |
Cardinals +4 v. Rams |
Top |
11-34 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Arizona Cardinals (151) plus the points versus the Los Angles Rams (152) in their NFC wild card playoff game. THE SITUATION: Arizona (11-6) has lost four of their last five games after their 38-30 upset loss to Seattle as a 5-point underdog on Sunday. Los Angeles (12-5) had their five-game winning streak snapped with their 27-24 upset loss at home to San Francisco as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: Arizona took a step back in the second half of the season with five losses in their last eight games after an 8-1 start. I thought the Cardinals were overvalued after that fast start (and I am not the biggest Kliff Kingsbury fan) — but they are bit undervalued in this spot. Arizona was hit hard by injuries in the second half of the season including playing three games with quarterback Kyler Murray. The loss of wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins has hurt the offensive significantly — but it does look like defensive end J.J. Watt will be available to play some snaps tonight. The decline on defense corresponded to Watt’s shoulder injury. The pressure appears to be off this team — and that makes them dangerous. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Cardinals defense should play better after allowing the Seahawks (emboldened in the role of the spoiler in what Pete Carroll described as their “Super Bowl”) to generate 431 yards with a 7.70 Yards-Per-Play average. Arizona has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. And in their last 38 games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 7.0 YPP, they have covered the point spread in 27 of these contests. The Cardinals played their best football on the road where they were 8-1 with an average winning margin of +10.8 net Points-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph’s unit holds their home hosts to just 18.9 Points-Per-Game and 319.0 total YPG. They are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. They have also covered the point spread in 6 straight road games as the underdog. Furthermore, Arizona is 19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Cardinals had a 5-2 record against the playoff teams — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of these 7 games. Los Angeles only won twice in their seven games against playoff teams — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of those 7 games against playoff teams. The Rams took a 17-3 lead into the first half last week against the 49ers before getting outscored by a 24-7 margin in the second half. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after taking a two-touchdown lead or more in the first half of their last game. The Rams have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Despite pundits wanting to believe in the high-ceiling of this LA All-Star team, there are significant flaws. Matthew Stafford has demonstrated that perhaps he was not an innocent victim during his time playing for the Detroit Lions after committing nine turnovers in the last four games. He has thrown four pick-sixes this season — yet head coach Sean McVay continues to call plays that put his new shiny toy at quarterback in the best position to succeed. Stafford struggles against pressure up the middle — and that is an area where the return of Watt could make a big difference. The season-ending injury to Robert Woods has played a role in Stafford’s inconsistent play in the second half of the season. He has thrown 11 interceptions in since Week 10 — and his Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game has dropped a full yard to 7.6 YPA over that span. While Stafford was lighting up the league with a Passer Rating of 111.6 in the first nine weeks of the year, he only had a Passer Rating of 93.7 in the final nine weeks. A decline of the running game has not helped with Darrell Henderson going on Injured Reserve. Los Angeles has only ran for 73 and 64 yards in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after not rushing for more than 75 yards in two straight games. The defense has underperformed expectations as well. They allowed 449 yards to San Francisco last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. They stay at home where, as Stafford’s wife will attest, they will not necessarily have a vociferous crowd advantage. Arizona fans will travel as Niners fans did last week. The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 playoff games at home. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record.
FINAL TAKE: Arizona upset the Rams in LA in the first meeting on October 3rd by a 37-20 score. Los Angeles won the rematch on December 13th in Glendale by a 30-23 score as a 3-point favorite. The Cardinals have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games when playing on the road motivated to avenge a loss to their opponent. 25* NFL Wild Card Playoff Game of the Year with the Arizona Cardinals (151) plus the points versus the Los Angles Rams (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-16-22 |
Steelers v. Chiefs UNDER 46.5 |
Top |
21-42 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (149) and the Kansas City Chiefs (150) in their AFC wild card playoff game. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (9-7-1) has won two games in a row to sneak into the playoffs after their 16-13 victory in overtime at Baltimore as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Kansas City (12-5) won their ninth game in their last ten in a 28-24 win at Denver as an 11-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Steelers made the playoffs on the strength of their defense. They held their last two opponents to just 27 combined points — and three of their last four opponents have not scored more than 14 points. The formula for success tonight for Pittsburgh will be give rookie running back Najee Harris plenty of carries in the attempt to slow this game down to a crawl. The Steelers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 17 points in two straight games. Additionally, they have played Pittsburgh has played 15 of their last 19 road games Under the Total after a win on the road against an AFC North opponent. The Under is 9-4-1 in their last 14 games after a straight-up win — and the Under is 7-2-1 in their last 10 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. And in their last 10 games after winning three of their last four (as they have), the Steelers have played 7 of these games Under the Total. But scoring will be an issue for this Pittsburgh team that averages just 20.2 Points-Per-Game and 315.4 total Yards-Per-Game. Those numbers drop to 19.5 PPG and 312.1 total YPG in their eight games on the road. The Under is a decisive 38-15-1 in their last 54 games on the road — and they have played 29 of their last 41 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. The offense has not picked up during this last season run — they have only scored 19 or fewer points in three of their last four games while not scoring more than 20 points in five of their last seven games. In their last 5 games as a double-digit underdog, the Steelers have played 4 of these games Under the Total. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing on the road in a game where both teams scored at least 24 points. The Chiefs have played their last two games on the road where they did not cover the point spread — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two of their last three games. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after completing a two-game road trip. They allowed 6.87 and 8.05 Yards-Per-Play in their last two games on defense — but they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. The defense has been a bright spot for this team in the second half of the season — they have held seven of their last ten opponents to 17 points or less with four settling for single digits. They return home where they have played 14 of their last 17 home games Under the Total when favored by 10.5 to 14 points. Kansas City has also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when a double-digit favorite. And in their last 5 games in the wild card round of the playoffs, the Chiefs have played 4 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas City dominated the Steelers in a 36-10 victory at Arrowhead Stadium on December 26th last month. These teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings in KC Under the Total despite that game sneaking over the 44 point total. Pittsburgh has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed at least 35 points. 25* NFL Wild Card Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (149) and the Kansas City Chiefs (150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-15-22 |
Patriots v. Bills UNDER 43.5 |
Top |
17-47 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (143) and the Buffalo Bills (144) in their AFC wild card playoff game. THE SITUATION: New England (10-7) has lost three of their last four games after a 33-24 upset loss at Miami as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. Buffalo (11-6) won their fourth straight game with their 27-10 win against the New York Jets as a 16-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Quarterback Josh Allen may garner most of the headlines for the Bills — but don’t sleep on the Buffalo defense under head coach Sean McDermott and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier. The Bills have held their last three opponents to just 15.3 Points-Per-Game and 202.0 total Yards-Per-Game. Buffalo has allowed just 25 combined points in their last two games. Additionally, the Bills have not allowed more than 21 points in four straight games as well as six of their last seven contests. Buffalo hosts the third meeting between these AFC East rivals where they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total when favored. And while the Bills have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after covering the point spread in at least two of their last three games. Buffalo has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in January. McDermott and Frazier should have their best game plan yet to challenge Patriots’ rookie quarterback Mac Jones. Throw out the first game between these two teams when Jones only attempted three passes in the wind and cold in Buffalo (although that effort does not inspire confidence). In the rematch on December 26th which the Bills won by a 33-21 score as a 1-point underdog, Jones completed only 14 of 32 passes for 145 yards with two interceptions. The former Alabama quarterback might have hit a wall to close out the season. Since Week 14, Jones only completed 59.9% of his passes as compared to his 67.6% completion percentage for the season. Jones was much more effective when playing at home as well where completed 68.1% of his passes while averaging 249.1 passing Yards-Per-Game with 16 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. His Quarterback Rating at home is 97.5. But on the road, while Jones’ completion percentage only drops to 66.8%, he averages just 194.9 passing YPG with six TD passes and six interceptions — and his QBR falls to 85.4. Jones will not have Isaiah Wynn protecting his blind side either with the left tackle out with a hip and ankle injury. The Patriots were content to grind out lower-scoring games on the road with their defense that allowed only 16.0 PPG and 284.1 total YPG. Bill Belichick has had great success in frustrating Allen in his career. Allen completes only 57.1% of his passes against New England in his career while averaging just 215.9 passing YPG and a QBR of 82.7. Allen has not been great in his career in cold weather despite his college experience at Wyoming and his strong arm. His career completion percentage of 62.3% drops to 50.3% in his five games played in below-freezing temperatures. He averages only 166.6 passing YPG in those games with six touchdown passes and seven interceptions. The Patriots have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total as a dog.
FINAL TAKE: New England has palled 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with revenge — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss. The Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing in Buffalo. The temperatures will be in the single digits for this game although the wind will not be nearly the factor that it was in the first game between these teams this season. Weather conditions must be considered in relation to the subsequent Over/Under number — but suffice to say that frigid temperatures harden the football which negatively impacts placekicking and makes it harder to catch the football. In other words, freezing temperatures certainly do not help produce higher-scoring games. 25* AFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New England Patriots (143) and the Buffalo Bills (144). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-15-22 |
Raiders v. Bengals -5.5 |
Top |
19-26 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 4:35 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bengals (142) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (141) in their AFC wild card playoff game. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (10-7) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 21-16 loss at Cleveland as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday. Las Vegas (10-7) won their fourth game in a row with their 35-32 upset victory in overtime against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINTS: Las Vegas benefited from Chargers’ head coach Brandon Staley misreading analytics by taking silly chances like going for it on 4th-and-2 on their own 18-yard line to pull the upset last week. Coaching mistakes like that helped the Raiders overcome getting outgained by 94 net yards — but a +2 net turnover margin helped even that game as well. The result had a feel of Las Vegas winning their Super Bowl by giving the home fans their first taste of the playoffs since the club moved from Oakland — made all the sweeter given all the turmoil this team has encountered this season starting with the removal of Jon Gruden as their head coach. An emotional letdown is likely — especially for a team that has pulled off three straight upset wins to reach the playoffs. All four of their games during their current winning streak were decided by just a field goal — and they have benefited from a 7-2 record in games decided by one scoring possession including a 4-0 mark in games that went to overtime. In other words, the Raiders are a few breaks going against them from being an 8-9 (or worse) football team. There were outscored by -3.8 Points-Per-Game this season — and they were outscored by -4.1 PPG when playing on the road. And on the road this teams goes under very challenging circumstances coming from a long overtime game on Sunday Night Football to the opening playoff context on Saturday afternoon — and they have to travel across the country to boot! As it is, Las Vegas has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 31 games after an upset win as a home underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games after upsetting a divisional rival as a home underdog. The Raiders have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a close win by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. Las Vegas has also failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after covering the point spread in each of their last three games. They go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 33 road games after winning four or five of their last six games. Weather will be a factor with temperates expected to drop below freezing with a chance of snow. Quarterback Derek Carr has played five games when the temperature was under at 37 degrees or less: he lost all five games with the Raiders never scoring more than 17 points. Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow grew up in Ohio — so he is used to the cold weather. Burrow comes into this game rested after the Bengals clinched home field in the opening round of the playoffs two weeks ago. Their team dominated by second-stringers still were competitive against the Browns — and Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. The Bengals have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, Cincinnati has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: These teams played in Las Vegas on November 21st when the Bengals scored 19 points in the fourth quarter to pull away with a 32-13 victory. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 61 when avenging a loss where they allowed at least 28 points — including six of these last nine circumstances. 25* AFC Wild Card Playoff Game of the Year with the Cincinnati Bengals (142) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (141). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-09-22 |
Chargers -2.5 v. Raiders |
Top |
32-35 |
Loss |
-125 |
3 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (481) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (482). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (9-7) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 34-13 win against Denver as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. Las Vegas (9-7) is on a three-game winning streak after their 23-20 upset win at Indianapolis as an 8.5-point underdog last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Raiders come off two straight upset wins after they beat Denver at home by a 17-13 score as a 1-point underdog two weeks ago. Las Vegas has benefited from some favorable opponent quarterback situations during their winning streak. They beat a Cleveland Browns team ravaged by COVID three weeks ago who had to resort to three-stringer Nick Mullens at quarterback. They faced Broncos’ backup quarterback Drew Lock two weeks ago — and they then got Carson Wentz not at 100% last week after the unvaccinated quarterback returned from his inevitable case of COVID. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a narrow win by a field goal or less on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning at least two games in a row. Las Vegas got outgained in yardage by the Colts, 362-326. The Raiders have been fortunate with a 6-2 record in games decided by one scoring possession. They are getting outscored by -4.2 Points-Per-Game on the season. They only managed to rush for 85 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not rushing for more than 90 yards in their last game. Las Vegas has not been an effective team on offense — especially after Jon Gruden was let go by the franchise. The Raiders rank 25th in Third Down Percentage and 29th in Red Zone Scoring. They expect to play tight end Darren Waller and running back Josh Jacobs who are both listed as questionable — but it remains a question how effective they can be playing through their injuries. Las Vegas is scoring only 18.7 Points-Per-Game and averaging 332.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — and they have scored more than 17 points just twice in their last eight games. They are 4-4 at home despite getting outscored by -4.4 PPG. The Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Los Angeles has scored at least 28 points in five straight games. Since Week 11, the Chargers lead the NFL in total offense and rank second in scoring. They are scoring 30.3 PPG and averaging 395.3 total YPG in their last three games. Second-year quarterback Justin Herbert leads the NFL in third-down effectiveness — and that includes Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against AFC West opponents — and they are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games in January. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against the Raiders.
FINAL TAKE: Las Vegas wants to avenge a 28-14 loss to the Chargers in Los Angeles on October 4th — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 29 games when playing with revenge from a loss by at least 14 points. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year with the Los Angeles Chargers (481) minus the points versus the Las Vegas Raiders (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-09-22 |
49ers v. Rams UNDER 46.5 |
Top |
27-24 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (479) and the Los Angeles Rams (480). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (9-7) won their third game in their last four contests with a 23-7 win against Houston as a 14-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (12-4) is on a five-game winning streak after their 20-19 win at Baltimore as a 7-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The news I was waiting on has just been confirmed this afternoon — the 49ers will be without left tackle Trent Williams. The future Hall of Famer who has probably been the most effective left tackle in the game this season is out with an elbow injury that left him questionable all week. Not only does that hurt in the protection against Aaron Donald in the San Francisco passing game, but Williams plays a vital role in the Niners’ run-blocking. Jimmy Garoppolo will be the starting quarterback despite his painful thumb injury — but it remains a question how effective he can be with this injury. Garoppolo playing this game probably speaks more to the readiness of rookie quarterback Trey Lance. While he is uber-athletic, Lance holds on to the ball too long and lacks a firm grasp of playing the position at the NFL level after not playing in almost two years after taking last year off with North Dakota State. As it is, the 49ers have only averaged 20.4 Points-Per-Game in their five divisional matchups this season. San Francisco has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win at home by double-digits. The 49ers have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. San Francisco’s defense has been playing well — they have held their last four opponents to no more than 23 points. They have held their last three opponents to 13.3 PPG and 266.0 total Yards-Per-Game. The 49ers have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total as a road underdog. San Francisco has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total on the road with the Total set at 45.5 or higher. Furthermore, the Niners have played 5 of the last 6 games Under the Total against winning teams — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total as an underdog. Los Angeles has held their last five opponents to no more than 23 points — and they lead the NFL in sacks which make the loss of Williams on the offensive line for San Francisco a game-changer. the Rams have held their last three opponents to 17.3 PPG and 300.3 total YPG. Matthew Stafford completed 26 of 35 passes for 309 yards in their win against the Ravens last week — but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. The Rams have played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And in their last 6 games after winning four or five of their last six games, Los Angeles has played all 6 games Under the Total. The Rams go back home where they have played a decisive 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total — and they have played 17 of their last 21 home games Under the Total when favored. Los Angeles has also played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Rams will be motivated to avenge a 31-10 loss in San Francisco on November 15th — and they have played 31 of their last 47 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss to their opponent. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. 25* NFC West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (479) and the Los Angeles Rams (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-09-22 |
Steelers v. Ravens -3 |
Top |
16-13 |
Loss |
-106 |
0 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Baltimore Ravens (472) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (471). THE SITUATION: Baltimore (8-8) is on a five-game losing streak after their 20-19 loss to the Los Angeles Rams as a 7-point underdog on Sunday. Pittsburgh (8-7-1) has won two of their last three games after their 26-14 upset win against Cleveland as a 1-point underdog on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS: Both of these teams have slim playoff hopes still alive — the winner of this game needs Indianapolis to get upset by Jacksonville as a two-touchdown underdog. That is not likely to happen, of course. And it sure looked like the Steelers put everything into their Monday night win against the Browns in what was Ben Roethlisberger’s likely last game at home in Heinz Field. An emotional letdown appears imminent. As it is, Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Pittsburgh is just 2-5 on the road with an average losing margin of -9.6 Points-Per-Game. They allow their home hosts to score 29.6 PPG and generate 398.0 total Yards-Per-Game. I have little doubt that head coach John Harbaugh will have his team ready to play. The Ravens want to end their losing streak — and they would love to end Roethlisberger’s career with a loss. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. It will be Tyler Huntley under center with Lamar Jackson still nursing his ankle injury. The backup has played well in Jackson’s absence — he has completed 67.5% of his 162 passes with 955 passing yards and another 222 rushing yards on a 6.3 Yards-Per-Carry average in six games. Baltimore is 5-3 at home this season — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 home games. The Ravens have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. And they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in January.
FINAL TAKE: Pittsburgh won the first game between these two teams by a 20-19 score as a 4-point underdog on December 5th. Baltimore has covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 opportunities to avenge a same-season loss. 25* AFC North Game of the Year with the Baltimore Ravens (472) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (471). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-08-22 |
Cowboys v. Eagles UNDER 44.5 |
Top |
51-26 |
Loss |
-103 |
7 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (469) and the Philadelphia Eagles (470). THE SITUATION: Dallas (11-5) had their four-game winning streak snapped with their 25-22 upset loss at home to Arizona as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. Philadelphia (9-7) is on a four-game winning streak after their 20-16 win at Washington as a 6.5-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Injuries and COVID play a defining role in this game. The Eagles have 11 players on the COVID list. Running back Miles Sanders is out with a hand injury — and Philly may only have rookie Kenneth Gainwell healthy and available in their backfield tonight. Right tackle Lane Johnson is dealing with a knee - and Jalen Hurts is less than 100% with an ankle injury. Given that Philadelphia has already clinched a wildcard spot in the NFC playoffs, but they cannot secure a home game next week and have little idea who they will be playing, rookie head coach Nick Sirianni may opt to rest key players including Hurts. As it is, the Eagles have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win on the road — and they have played 13 of their last 17 home games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. Philadelphia has played 16 of their last 21 home games Under the Total after a win by seven points or less against an NFC East rival — and they have played 25 of their last 36 home games Under the Total after a win on the road against a divisional opponent. Additionally, the Eagles have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning two in a row — and they have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total after winning two in a row against NFC East foes. They return home where they have played 11 of their last 16 home games Under the Total with the number in the 42.5 to 49 point range — and they have played 7 of their last 9 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting up to seven points. Philadelphia does not have too much luxury to rest all their starters on defense given roster limitations. They have not allowed more than 18 points in five straight games — and they have held their last three opponents to 14.3 Points-Per-Game and 247.0 total Yards-Per-Game. Dallas has some COVID issues themselves most notably with rookie sensation Micah Parsons out for this game. Running back Tony Pollard is questionable with a foot injury — and Ezekiel Elliott has been saddled with a knee injury for much of the season. Wide receiver Michael Gallup is out the season with a torn ACL. But Dallas still has plenty to play for despite having clinched the NFC East title when ensures them no worse than the fourth seed. Losses by Tampa Bay and the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday would put the Cowboys in the position to take the second seed in the NFC playoffs — so head coach Mike McCarthy needs to play for the win tonight. Outside of their 56-point outburst against a Washington team ravaged by COVID and playing after limited practice time, Dallas has not scored more than 27 points in four of their last five games. The Cowboys have not given up more than 20 points in six of their last eight contests. Dallas has played 21 of their last 30 road games Under the Total after a loss by three points or less. The Cowboys have also played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with the number set in the 42.5 to 49 range.
FINAL TAKE: Dallas won the first meeting between these two teams by a 41-21 score. Philadelphia has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss on the road to their opponent. These two teams have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing in Philadelphia. 25* NFL Saturday Television Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Cowboys (469) and the Philadelphia Eagles (470). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-03-22 |
Browns v. Steelers -2.5 |
Top |
14-26 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (132) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (131). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-7-1) has lost two of their last three games after their 36-10 loss at Kansas City as a 10.5-point underdog last Sunday. Cleveland (7-8) has lost three of their last four games after their 24-22 loss at Green Bay as a 7.5-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh still has a narrow path to make the playoffs — but the chances are remote so the weight of playoff expectations are not likely to be heavy. Instead, tonight’s game is being viewed as Big Ben Roethlisberger’s final game at home at Heinz Field. It should be a wild and emotional night for the fans and the team that will want to send out the future Hall of Fame a winner. Roethlisberger loves playing against his childhood team. Big Ben has a 24-2-1 against the Browns in his career with 42 touchdown passes and just 22 interceptions. He has a career Passer Rating of 94.2 against the Browns. Even better, the Steelers have a perfect 14-0 record at home against Cleveland under head coach Mike Tomlin. They should play well tonight after getting handled by the Chiefs last week. Pittsburgh has covered the point speed in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a loss by at least 21 points. The Steelers fell behind early and went into halftime with a 23-0 score — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after trailing by at least 14 points at halftime of their last game. Pittsburgh had a -2 net turnover margin in that game as well — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin. The Steelers should also play better defense — they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after allowing at least 35 points in their last game. Pittsburgh does get back T.J. Watt back on defense — and they have a 7-2 straight up record this season when Watt plays at least 60% of the snaps on defense. The Steelers are 5-2 at home this year — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored at home by up to three points. Cleveland may be flat after getting eliminated from the playoff race after yesterday’s results. As it is, the Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a loss on the road. And while Cleveland has covered the point spread in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after covering two of their last three games. The Browns stay on the road where they are just 2-5 this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games on the road with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Cleveland has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the last two weeks of the season. They are also just 11-28-1 ATS in their last 40 games against AFC North opponents.
FINAL TAKE: Cleveland will be motivated to avenge a 15-10 loss at home to Pittsburgh on October 31st. The Browns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with same-season revenge — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 14 points. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (132) minus the points versus the Cleveland Browns (131). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-02-22 |
Vikings v. Packers UNDER 46.5 |
Top |
10-37 |
Loss |
-118 |
4 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (129) and the Green Bay Packers (130). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (7-8) had their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their 30-23 loss to the Los Angeles Rams as a 3.5-point underdog last Sunday. Green Bay (12-3) is on a four-game winning streak with their 24-22 victory against Cleveland as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Despite enjoying a +4 net turnover margin at home last week against the Browns, the Packers only managed to gain 311 yards in their narrow victory against a Cleveland team hit hard by COVID. Aaron Rodgers completed 24 of 34 passes but for only 202 yards. Green Bay needs to tighten up on defense after allowing the Browns to gain 408 total yards in that game. They seized an early lead and took a 21-12 advantage into halftime before only scoring a field goal in the second half. Expect a similar game script against a Vikings’ team playing without Kirk Cousins. Mistakes may be the biggest threat to the Packers tonight — so they are likely to rely heavily on their running game and be satisfied with grinding out a lower-scoring game that re-establishes the confidence of their defense. Green Bay allows only 17.7 Points-Per-Game and 338.9 total Yards-Per-Game at home at Lambeau Field. They have played 4 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total when favored. The Packers have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. Minnesota will have to rely on backup Sean Mannion at quarterback with Cousins out after a positive COVID test. The former Oregon State has not taken a snap in a regular-season game since 2019. In his career, he has completed only 57.5% of his 74 NFL passes with a mild 6.0 Yards-Per-Attempt average. The Vikings are going to rely heavily on running back Dalvin Cook who was removed from the COVID list and will play tonight. Head coach Mike Zimmer will want to shorten the game by burning time off the clock — and he has had success slowing Rodgers down in his coaching career. Zimmer has led Minnesota to a 6-4-1 record against the Packers in his last 11 games as head coach of the Vikings. Green Bay has only scored more than 23 points against Zimmer’s Minnesota teams twice in their last six encounters. The Packers average 21.6 first downs per game with their offense on the field for 32:34 minutes per game — and the Vikings have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams who average at least 32 minutes in Time of Possession and 21 first downs per game. Green Bay only averages 0.7 turnovers per game with Rodgers rarely throwing interceptions — and Minnesota has played 6 straight games Under the Total against opponents who do not commit more than 0.75 turnovers per game.
FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams who are winning at least 75% of their games — and the Packers have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Vikings (129) and the Green Bay Packers (130). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-02-22 |
Eagles v. Washington Football Team UNDER 45 |
Top |
20-16 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (113) and the Washington Football Team (114). THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (8-7) has won three in a row with their 34-10 victory against the New York Giants as an 11-point favorite last Sunday. Washington (6-9) is on a three-game losing streak after their 56-14 loss at Dallas as a 10-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Football Team is a mess on offense right now after posting their three lowest yardage totals in the last three weeks. They managed only 224 total yards against the Cowboys on December 12th before picking up just 237 yards against the Eagles in a 27-17 loss in Philadelphia on December 21st. Washington only gained 257 yards last week in their debacle in Dallas. The Football Team wants to run the ball to set up the pass but they have only gained 148 yards on the ground in their last two games. To compound matters, star running back Antonio Gibson has been declared out for this game due to COVID. The Football Team has played 5 straight Unders after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. Additionally, they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. Washington has also played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after a loss by 21 or more points to an NFC East foe. At least the Football Team should play better on defense after getting embarrassed last week. Dallas generated 497 yards of offense against them — but Washington has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 30 points in their last contest. Philadelphia has not allowed more than 18 points in four straight games. They should stymie the Football Team this afternoon with their stout run defense that ranks fourth in the league by allowing only 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry. Philly held the Giants to just 108 passing yards and 192 total yards last week — and they have played 4 straight Unders after not allowing more than 150 passing yards in their last game. The Eagles held Washington to just 237 total yards two weeks ago — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 350 yards in two straight games. But look for the Philly offense to struggle — they have played 55 of their last 79 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Jalen Hurts is not 100% with an ankle issue that has limited him to just 45 rushing yards on ten carries in his last two games. Hurts is also regressing in the passing game. Since Week 11, he is completing only 58.2% of his passes which is 26th in the NFL during that span. He has thrown only three touchdown passes with four interceptions since Week 11 — and his Passer Rating of 73.7 since that time ranks 24th in the league. He will also be without his best running back in Miles Sanders who is out with a hand injury. The Eagles have played three straight Overs — but they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs and they have played 25 of their last 36 games Under the Total after playing at least three Overs in a row.
FINAL TAKE: Washington is a mess at quarterback with the league seeming to get a book on journeyman quarterback Taylor Heinicke. Head coach Ron Rivera suggested both Heinicke and Kyle Allen could play today. I do expect a spirited effort — and the Football Team has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NFC East Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Philadelphia Eagles (113) and the Washington Football Team (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-27-21 |
Dolphins -3 v. Saints |
Top |
20-3 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Miami Dolphins (481) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (482). THE SITUATION: Miami (7-7) won their sixth straight game last Sunday in a 31-29 victory against the New York Jets as a 10.5-point favorite last Sunday. New Orleans (7-7) won their second-straight game with their 9-0 upset win at Tampa Bay as an 11.5-point underdog last Sunday night.
REASONS TO TAKE THE DOLPHINS MINUS THE POINTS: If the Dallas Cowboys (unfortunate, for us) blowout victory against Washington last night re-affirmed to me, it is to not underestimate the physical, mental, and emotional toll COVID outbreaks have on teams. Not that we should become zombies to simply fade teams dealing with significant outbreaks — and good luck finding matchups where only one team is dealing with that problem — but it is certainly a factor. We hope that Omicron is resulting in milder cases, but we just don’t know yet (the “analytics” are too early to evaluate). And we think professional athletes are in the best position to overcome. But dudes are still getting sick for a few days. A momentum swing like an early interception (as from last night) can play into the game script putting one team on defense for an extended period — and then suddenly a team dealing with the challenges and complications from COVID all week can find themselves on their heels. New Orleans has 20 players out because of COVID including quarterbacks Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian. On defense, stalwarts in linebackers Demario Davis and Kaden Ellis along with strong safety Malcolm Jenkins who all played important roles in shutting out Tom Brady last week are now out as well. Head coach Sean Payton is on to his fourth-string quarterback in rookie Ian Book. The former Notre Dame star is an interesting project — but he left South Bend with a ceiling to his talents and there is a reason that there was little to no consideration of using him at quarterback up until tonight despite all the attrition at this position starting with the season-ending injury to Jameis Winston. In the preseason, Book completed 9 of 16 passes for 126 yards and an interception. Payton is an offensive wizard — but Book lacks Hill’s mobility to run the “Cam Newton Carolina” offense and his passing skillset is similar to Siemian’s but without the NFL experience. The Saints have Alvin Kamara back — but the Dolphins are likely to put eight men in the box to slow him down and dare New Orleans to beat them with Book’s arm (with a suspect receiving corps still missing Michael Thomas). Besides all that, the Saints are in a letdown spot after the shocking shutout victory against the Buccaneers. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset win as an underdog of six or more points against an NFC South rival. The Saints have covered the point spread in their last two games but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering point spread expectations in two of their last three games. New Orleans benefited from a +2 net turnover margin against Tampa Bay — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 56 home games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. The Saints return home where they are just 1-4 this season while getting outscored by 27.8 Points-Per-Game and surrendering 402.0 total Yards-Per-Game. New Orleans has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread 14 of their last 22 home games with the Total set in the 35.5 to 38 point range. The Saints also remain without their starting tackles with Ryan Ramczyk out with COVID and Terron Armstead still dealing with a knee injury. That is not a good sign for a team that ranks second to last in the league over the last six weeks in Expected Points Added per snap on offense. Miami’s defense leads the NFL during that span in Expected Points Allowed per snap. Admittedly, the Dolphins have been feasting on the lesser teams in the league with less than ideal quarterback situations — but this is a team that is confident with a formula for success. And this team is pretty healthy with few COVID cases. Miami has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after a victory at home. They had covered the point spread in five straight games before their narrow win over the Jets last week - and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The Dolphins have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 30 points. Tua Tagovailoa has found a rhythm under center as of late — he has completed 100 of his 129 passes in his last four games for a 77.8% completion percentage with 943 passing yards, seven touchdown passes, and just three interceptions. And while Miami allowed just 228 yards to the Jets last week, they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: The Dolphins have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games under head coach Brian Flores in December. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month is on the Miami Dolphins (481) minus the points versus the New Orleans Saints (482). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-26-21 |
Washington Football Team v. Cowboys UNDER 47 |
Top |
14-56 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington Football Team (479) and the Dallas Cowboys (480). THE SITUATION: Washington (6-8) lost their second straight game in a 27-17 loss at Philadelphia as a 10-point underdog on Tuesday. Dallas (10-4) won their third straight game with a 21-6 victory in New York against the Giants as an 11.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys continue to excel on defense after holding the Giants to just 302 total yards. Dallas forced four turnovers in the game — they lead the NFL with 31 takeaways and 21 interceptions. They have held their last three opponents to just 14.3 Points-Per-Game and 310.3 total Yards-Per-Game. The Cowboys have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while Dallas has won four of their last six games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning four or five of their last six contests. But injuries are slowing this team down on offense. The biggest loss is Tyron Smith at left tackle — he might be the most important player on the team outside of Dak Prescott. Running back Ezekiel Elliott has been slowed with injuries this season. The Cowboys do get running back Tony Pollard back tonight but it remains a question how effective he will be with his foot injury. Dallas has not scored more than 27 points in four of their last five and six of their last eight contests. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when favored. Washington only managed 237 yards in their loss at Philadelphia. Granted, the Football Team had journeyman Garrett Gilbert under center — but he played well in completing 20 of 31 passes for 194 yards in numbers that looked similar to what Taylor Heinicke was providing them. Heinicke and backup QB Kyle Allen have been cleared to play — but Heinicke has not practiced all week. Aaron Rodgers is the exception that proves the rule that quarterbacks can avoid practice all week and still have their “A-Game” on Sunday. COVID has limited Washington’s ability to prepare and even game-plan. Offensive coordinator Scott Turner had to tentatively prepare three approaches since he had no idea if it would be Heinicke, Allen, or Gilbert again under center. These two teams played just two weeks ago in a 27-20 victory for the Cowboys in a game where the Football Team only gained 224 yards with both Heinicke and Allen getting snaps. Washington is scoring only 18.3 PPG and averaging 253.o total YPG in their last three games. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing two in a row. And while the Football Team surrendered 519 yards to the Eagles last week, they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after giving up at least 350 yards in their last game. Washington stayed competitive by forcing turnovers and not giving the ball up themselves — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after playing a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after not gaining at least 250 yards in their last game. They stay on the road where they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. And in their last 17 games against teams with a winning record, the Football Team has played 14 of these games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: Washington has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against NFC East rivals — and Dallas has played 5 straight Unders against teams from the NFC. 25* NFC East Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington Football Team (479) and the Dallas Cowboys (480). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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12-26-21 |
Steelers v. Chiefs UNDER 45 |
Top |
10-36 |
Loss |
-117 |
1 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 4:25 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-6-1) has won two of their last three games after a 19-13 win against Tennessee as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Kansas City (10-4) has won seven straight games after their 34-28 win in Los Angeles against the Chargers as a 3-point favorite on December 16th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Pittsburgh eked out that game with the Titans despite only gaining 170 total yards. They have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game. The Under is also 8-3-1 in their last 12 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. The Steelers enjoyed a +4 net turnover margin in that game which was the third straight game where they won the turnover battle — and they have then played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after having a +1 or better net turnover margin in at least two straight games. The Under is also 6-1-1 in their last 8 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They go back on the road where the Under is 37-14-1 in their last 52 games — and they have played 11 of their last 16 road games Under the Total with the number in the 42.5 to 49 point range. Pittsburgh has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total in December. Kansas City has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win on the road. Patrick Mahomes completed 31 of 47 passes for 410 yards in the win — but the Chiefs have played 5 straight Unders after a game where they passed for at least 250 yards. Kansas City did allow 192 rushing yards in the game — but they have played 37 of their last 55 games under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. The Chiefs have played two straight Overs — but they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing two straight Overs. The Kansas City defense is playing much better at this part of the season — they have held six of their last seven opponents to no more than 17 points. They return home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total.
FINAL TAKE: The Chiefs have played 14 of their last 17 home games Under the Total when favored by 10.5 to 14 points. Pittsburgh has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as a double-digit dog. And in the last 8 meetings between these two teams, the game finished Under the Total 6 times. 25* NFL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers (475) and the Kansas City Chiefs (476). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-26-21 |
Bills v. Patriots OVER 43.5 |
Top |
33-21 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (471) and the New England Patriots (472). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (8-6) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 31-14 victory against Carolina as a 14.5-point favorite last Sunday. New England (9-5) had their seven-game winning streak end last Saturday with their 27-17 loss at Indianapolis as a 1-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bills should build off their momentum from last week as they have played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a double-digit win at home. The Over is also 16-7-1 in their last 24 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, Buffalo has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Now they go back on the road where they are scoring 30.4 Points-Per-Game and averaging 397.7 total Yards-Per-Game. The Bills are missing two wide receivers this afternoon with both Gabriel Davis and Cole Beasley on the COVID list — but they do get Emmanuel Sanders back from a knee injury that kept him out last week and they still have Stefon Diggs. Buffalo will be missing a key piece on defense with linebacker Star Lotulelei for reasons only detailed as “personal.” Buffalo has played 5 straight Overs on the road — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Bills have also played 7 straight Overs as an underdog. New England gained 365 yards last week in their loss to the Colts — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Rookie quarterback Mac Jones completed 26 of 45 passes for 299 yards with two touchdown passes in a losing effort — a far cry from the mere three passes he threw against the Bills the prior week. Now Jones returns home to Foxboro where he has been more prolific with head coach Bill Belichick seemingly more comfortable to let him air it out. Jones is completing 70.7% of his passes with a 267.1 passing YPG mark with 13 touchdowns and five interceptions and a Quarterback Rating of 102.5 in his seven starts at home. In his seven starts on the road, Jones’ completion percentage drops to 66.8% with a 185.4 passing YPG mark with five touchdown passes and five interceptions and a QBR of 84.5. The Patriots are scoring 30.0 PPG and averaging 388.4 total YPG at home. They have played 4 straight Overs when playing a home — and they have played 11 of their last 15 home games Over the Total when getting up to three points as an underdog. Running back Damien Harris is expected to play this afternoon with his improving hamstring. New England did give up 226 rushing yards last week to the Colts — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams from the AFC.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played on Monday Night Football back on December 6th in the cold and heavy winds in Buffalo in a game the Patriots won by a 14-6 score. The temperatures in Foxboro today will be in the 40s with the winds in the low-teens — so the offenses should be able to function much better in this rematch. 25* AFC East Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (471) and the New England Patriots (472). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-25-21 |
Colts v. Cardinals UNDER 49.5 |
Top |
22-16 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (455) and the Arizona Cardinals (456). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (8-6) won their fifth game in their last six contests with their 27-17 win against New England as a 1-point favorite last Saturday. Arizona (10-4) has lost two straight games after their 30-12 upset loss in Detroit as a 13-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Colts only managed 275 yards in their victory against the Patriots last week. Carson Wentz only attempted 12 passes for a mere 57 yards in the win. Indianapolis has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not passing for at least 100 yards in their last game. The Colts did rush for 226 yards last week — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. It will be difficult for Indy to replicate that performance on the ground tonight with them missing three starting offensive linemen. Quenton Nelson and Mark Glowinski are on the COVID list while Ryan Kelly is taking personal time after the death of his child. The Indianapolis defense should keep them in this game — they have not allowed more than 17 points in four of their last five games. They did allow 284 passing yards to Mac Jones last week — but they have then played 5 straight Unders after surrendering at least 250 passing yards in their last game. The Colts go back on the road where they are allowing only 17.7 Points-Per-Game and 303.7 total Yards-Per-Game this season. Arizona has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Cardinals have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after an upset loss by 10 or more points. Arizona has suffered two straight upset losses after getting beat by the LA Rams by a 30-23 score as a 3-point favorite the previous week. The Cardinals have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after getting upset in two straight games. Furthermore, Arizona has played 4 straight Unders after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. They have also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after allowing 30 or more points in their last game. The Cardinals are only allowing 20.3 PPG this season — but they are scoring just 22.7 PPG in their last three games.
FINAL TAKE: Indianapolis has played 29 of their last 41 games Under the Total in December. 25* NFL Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Indianapolis Colts (455) and the Arizona Cardinals (456). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-23-21 |
49ers v. Titans OVER 44 |
Top |
17-20 |
Loss |
-105 |
17 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (451) and the Tennessee Titans (452). THE SITUATION: San Francisco (8-6) has won five of their last six games after a 31-13 win against Atlanta as a 9.5-point favorite on Sunday. Tennessee (9-5) lost their third game in their last four in a 19-13 loss at Pittsburgh as a 1-point underdog on December 19th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The 49ers gained 397 total yards last week in their victory against the Falcons. They have scored at least 30 points in four of their last six games and five of their last eight contests. San Francisco has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread victory. The Niners have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Even without an injured Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco ran for 162 yards against Atlanta. Head coach Kyle Shanahan is using wide receiver, Deebo Samuel, out of the backfield to great success. In Samuel’s last five games — all victories for the 49ers where they have scored at least 26 points (he did not play in their loss to Seattle on December 5th) — he has run the ball 33 times for 247 yards with six touchdowns including a score in each of those five games. Running back Jeff Wilson ran the ball 21 times for 110 yards with a touchdown in his best game of the season after missing the first half of the year to an injury. The 49ers have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after gaining at least 150 yards in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. Now San Francisco goes back on the road where the Over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games when favored. The Titans went into halftime with a 13-3 lead against the Steelers but did not score in the second half in their loss last week. They did rush for 201 yards in the setback with D’Onta Foreman running the ball 22 times for 108 yards. Tennessee has played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Tennessee returns home where the Over is 8-3-1 in their last 12 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 9 home games Over the Total as an underdog. Injuries have depleted the skill position players on offense — but the running game is still functioning even without Derrick Henry and after getting wide receiver Julio Jones back last week, wide receiver A.J. Brown is expected to return to the field this week after dealing with a chest injury. The Over is 19-7-1 in the Titans’ last 27 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 13 games in December, Tennessee has played 9 of these games Over the Total. The Titans are dealing with injuries on their offensive line with three players out including two starters — but they can move some players around to still form a capable starting five which will now likely include their second-round draft pick, Dillon Radunz. The Niners are dealing with several missing pieces on defense including recent injuries to two of their starters at linebacker (and Dre Greenlaw has been declared out). I concluded the impact of the losses still offers us value relative to the line.
FINAL TAKE: The Titans have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing on a Thursday night — and the 49ers have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total when playing on a Thursday. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the San Francisco 49ers (451) and the Tennessee Titans (452). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-21-21 |
Seahawks +7 v. Rams |
Top |
10-20 |
Loss |
-105 |
3 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Seattle Seahawks (337) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (338). THE SITUATION: Seattle (5-8) has won two games in a row with their 33-13 win at Houston as a 10-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (9-4) has won two games in a row after their 30-23 upset victory at Arizona as a 3-point underdog last Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: After struggling initially after his faster-than-expected return from a finger injury, Russell Wilson has regained his old form after completing 17 of 28 passes for 260 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions in the win against the Texans. Wilson is completing more than 70% of his passes with a Passer Rating of 109 in his last three starts. He has averaged 246 passing Yards-Per-Game in those contests with six touchdown passes and just one interception. The Seahawks are 35-17-3 ATS in their last 55 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. While this game was originally postponed because of a COVID outbreak in the Rams’ locker room, it is now Seattle that has been hit harder with positive cases. The Seahawks are without a handful of players including wide receiver Tyler Lockett, running back Alex Collins, cornerback D.J. Reed, and right tackle Brandon Shell. The absence of Lockett hurts but Wilson still has D.J. Metcalf as a prime target. The loss of Collins is not as big a deal with the emergence of running back Rashaad Penny who rushed the ball 16 times for 137 yards last week. The line has moved to account for the players Seattle will not have tonight — but they still have Wilson who usually makes them dangerous underdogs. The Seahawks have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as a dog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Seattle has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 road games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games as an underdog. The Seahawks have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December. Seattle is also a dangerous dog since they protect the football — they are tied for the fewest giveaways in the league. The national punditry seems to believe the Rams have solved all their problems after beating and covering the point spread in their last two games against Jacksonville and the Cardinals last week. We had LA against Arizona in that game — but the Rams have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a win by at least 14 points. Los Angeles has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after winning two games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. Furthermore, the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 15 points in their last game. Consistency has not been a hallmark for this team under head coach Sean McVay. And problems remain — a +2 net turnover margin helped them overcome betting outgained by 89 yards to the Cardinals. Arizona generated 447 yards against them — and the Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 42 home games after allowing at least 400 yards in their last game. Los Angeles still has many players out on the COVID list including starting tight end Tyler Higbee — but they do expect to get Von Miller back.
FINAL TAKE: The Rams have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when favored. 25* NFC West Underdog of the Month with the Seattle Seahawks (337) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Rams (338). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-20-21 |
Vikings v. Bears +7 |
Top |
17-9 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 57 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Chicago Bears (332) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (331). THE SITUATION: Chicago (4-9) lost their second straight game win a 45-30 loss at Green Bay as an 11.5-point underdog last Sunday. Minnesota (6-7) won their third game in their last five contests with a 36-28 victory against Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point favorite on Thursday Night Football last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Chicago has lost seven of their last eight games — but they have the opportunity to play the role of spoiler tonight. The Bears have not covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 home games after not covering the point spread in three straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after not covering the point spread in four straight games. Chicago has suffered -4 and -3 net turnover margins in their last two games — but they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games at home after enduring a -2 or worse net turnover margin in two straight games. They host a Vikings team that is just 2-5 on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. Despite two interceptions last week, rookie quarterback Justin Fields has played well as the Bears’ starting quarterback. He completed 18 of 33 passes for 224 yards with two touchdown passes and another 74 rushing yards. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning their last game at home. The Vikings have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing a game at home where both teams scored 24 points. And while Minnesota has played four straight Overs, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after playing at least four straight Overs. They allowed the Steelers to gain 375 yards last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. And while the Vikings have gained 426 and 458 yards in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 375 yards in their last game. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Furthermore, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games against teams with a losing record. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points.
FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on Monday Night Football — and Kirk Cousins has lost nine of his ten starts in prime-time. The Bears have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on Monday Night Football. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 meetings with Minnesota — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opportunities to host the Vikings at Soldier Field. 25* NFC North Game of the Month with the Chicago Bears (332) plus the points versus the Minnesota Vikings (331). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-19-21 |
Saints v. Bucs UNDER 47 |
Top |
9-0 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (329) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (330). THE SITUATION: New Orleans (6-7) snapped a five-game losing streak with their 30-9 win at New York against the Jets as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Tampa Bay (10-3) won their fourth straight game with their 33-27 victory against Buffalo as a 3.5-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Saints held the Jets to just 256 yards last week in a strong defensive effort. New Orleans has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 9 points in their last contest. Additionally, the Saints have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And in their last 8 games after a win by 14 or more points, New Orleans has played 7 of these games Under the Total. They stay on the road where they are allowing only 18.3 PPG and 300.5 total Yards-Per-Game. Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen does a good job devising schemes against Tom Brady — his zone defense limits the effectiveness of the crossing routes that the Buccaneers love and New Orleans has the players to generate an inside pass rush which gets Brady out of his rhythm. The Saints contained Brady to completing just 60.8% of his passes which averaged only 6.05 Yards-Per-Attempt in their two meetings last season. Brady put up better numbers in their first meeting this season on October 31st — but he did throw two interceptions in a 36-27 upset loss when the Bucs were laying 3.5 points. The bigger concern for New Orleans in this game is their anemic offensive under quarterback Taysom Hill. The Saints are scoring only 17.7 PPG while averaging 313.0 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games. Hill is an effective runner — but he is limited in the passing game. New Orleans operates an offensive akin to the Cam Newton offenses with Carolina — and that does mean longer possessions of offense as they attempt to win the Time of Possession battle. The Saints were on offense for 38:52 minutes against the Jets after rushing for 202 yards — and they have played 20 of their last 29 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. Tampa Bay did allow 173 rushing yards last week to the Bills — but they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing 150 or more rushing yards in their last game. The Buccaneers do have Vita Vea back on their defensive line who helps them become very tough to run on. Tampa Bay is third in the NFL by allowing only 91.2 rushing YPG — it will be a challenge to run the ball against this team without a credible passing attack. The Saints’ pass attack has averaged only 180 YPG in their last three games with a low 5.9 Yards-Per-Attempt average and a 55.4% completion percentage. The Bucs will be able to put eight defenders in the box in this rematch. Josh Allen led a Bills offense to average 6.4 Yards-Per-Play last week — but Tampa Bay has played 6 straight Unders after a game where they allowed at least 6.0 YPP. Furthermore, the Buccaneers have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against NFL opponents — and they have played 4 straight Unders against teams with a losing record.
FINAL TAKE: The Halloween meeting between these teams was a game that Jameis Winston started but got injured in before Trevor Siemian came off the bench to play one of his best games in his career in unusual circumstances. These teams have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total when playing in Tampa Bay. 25* NFC South Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Saints (329) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (330). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-18-21 |
Patriots v. Colts -2 |
Top |
17-27 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Indianapolis Colts (312) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (311). THE SITUATION: Indianapolis (7-6) has won four of their last five games after their 31-0 victory at Houston as a 10-point favorite on December 5th. New England (9-4) won their seventh game in a row with their 14-10 upset win at Buffalo as a 3-point underdog.
REASONS TO TAKE THE COLTS MINUS THE POINTS: Indianapolis should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 45 games after a double-digit win against an AFC South Rival. The Colts generated 389 yards against Texas to outgain them by +248 net yards. Indy has covered the point spread in 33 of their last 51 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +150 net yards — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Colts' offense has started to crank with Carson Wentz more comfortable running head coach Frank Reich’s offense. Indianapolis has scored at least 30 points in seven of their last eight games. Since Week Six, this team leads the NFL in points scored and touchdowns and they are second in rushing yards. They held Houston to just 141 total yards — and they are 24-7-1 ATS in their last 32 games after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They return home where they are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Colts may only have two wins in their seven games against teams with a winning record — but they have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games against teams with a winning record. New England had failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a game where they did not score more than 14 points. Some might be surprised that the red hot Patriots are the underdogs in this game — but it relates to rookie quarterback Mac Jones’ home/road splits this season. At home, Jones is averaging 267.1 passing YPG with 13 touchdown passes and five interceptions. He has a Quarterback Rating of 102.5 in those seven home games. But in his six games on the road, Jones sees his QBR drop to 87.7. Even after tossing out his 2 of 3 passing performance in the wind in Buffalo in his last game, Jones is still only averaging 196 passing YPG in his other five road games with just three touchdown passes and three interceptions. New England ran their way to victory against the Bills in that game as they gained 222 yards on the ground. But the Patriots are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 175 yards in their last contest. New England is also just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games in December under head coach Bill Belichick. The Patriots will be without Damien Harris in this game as he is out with a hamstring injury.
FINAL TAKE: The Colts surge has been led by running back Jonathan Taylor — they are 7-0 straight-up when he rushes for at least 100 yards. The Patriots have a great defense — but they are vulnerable against the run as they allow 4.4 Yards-Per-Carry and rank 18th in the NFL by giving up 114 rushing YPG. 25* AFC Game of the Month Indianapolis Colts (312) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-16-21 |
Chiefs v. Chargers UNDER 53.5 |
Top |
34-28 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (301) and the Los Angeles Chargers (302). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (9-4) has won six straight games after their 48-9 win against Las Vegas as a 10-point favorite on Sunday. Los Angeles (8-5) won their third game in their last four with their 37-21 win against the New York Giants as a 9.5-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs have played 7 straight Unders on the road after a double-digit victory. Kansas City has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And in their last 7 games after scoring at least 30 points, the Chiefs have played 5 of these games Under the Total. Kansas City may not have pass rusher, Chris Jones, tonight after testing positive for COVID earlier this week. There is an outside chance that Jones can be cleared to play tonight if he is asymptomatic with two negative tests — if so, then the Under looks even better. But the Chiefs defense is playing better for reasons outside of Jones moving back to defensive tackle since the midseason acquisition of defensive end Melvin Ingram. Year after year, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo oversees the steady improvement of his unit as the season moves on. Kansas City has held their last three opponents to just 9.0 Points-Per-Game and 323.0 total Yards-Per-Game. While they will miss Jones, the defense will not fall apart without him if he does not play. Spagnuolo’s group has held their divisional opponents to just 15.5 PPG and 336.3 total YPG in their four games this season. They held the Raiders to just 44 rushing yards last week — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. Now Kansas City goes back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. The Chiefs have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when favored. Los Angeles has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Justin Herbert completed 23 of 31 passes for 275 yards in the win against the Giants — but the Chargers have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. Los Angeles has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The Chargers stay at home where they have played 19 of their last 25 home games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. The Under is also 14-6-1 in their last 21 home games against teams with a winning record on the road — and they have played 11 of their last 14 home games Under the Total as an underdog. Los Angeles’ defense has been playing better as of late after holding their last three opponents to 23.7 PPG and 324.7 total YPG — that is -2.1 PPG and -23.7 net YPG below their season averages. They have also held their three divisional games this season to 22.0 PPG and 327.3 YPG. The Chargers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against AFC West foes. The Under is also 20-9-1 in their last 30 games in December. Los Angeles’ offense is not at full strength with their star rookie left tackle Rashawn Slater out tonight and running back Austin Ekeler not at 100% with a high ankle sprain. Ekeler will play but not get a full workload.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing in Los Angeles. 25* AFC West Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (301) and the Los Angeles Chargers (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-13-21 |
Rams +3 v. Cardinals |
Top |
30-23 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Rams (129) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (130). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (8-4) ended a three-game losing streak with a 37-5 victory against Jacksonville as a 14-point favorite last Sunday. Arizona (10-2) has won two games in a row after their 33-22 win at Chicago as a 7.5-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RAMS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles dominated the Jaguars last week by outgaining them by +221 net yards. The Rams have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 road games after scoring at least 35 points in their last game. Los Angeles covered the point spread for the first time in their last six games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread just once in their last three games. The Rams have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing two of their last three games. What was encouraging from the Jaguars game was that Los Angeles ran the ball 28 times for 128 yards. That was the most rushing attempts and yards for the Rams in four games. They will be without Darrell Henderson tonight with him being on the COVID list — but Sony Michel is capable in taking on the lead back role. Their 6.3 Yards-Per-Play average is the best in the NFL — and they average 6.3 YPP on the road with the offensive execution not dropping off. Los Angeles is 4-2 on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting up to seven points. The Rams are also 25-12-1 ATS in their last 38 games in the NFC — and they are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games in December. Arizona has won three of their last four games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7games after winning three of their last four games. The Cardinals host this game where they are just 3-2 this season with an average winning margin of +1.4 net Points-Per-Game. They are only scoring 22.6 PPG at home. Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. The Cardinals have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 home games when favored by up to seven points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 appearances on Monday Night Football.
FINAL TAKE: The Cardinals won the first meeting between these two teams by a 37-20 score in Los Angeles as a 3.5-point underdog. The Rams have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Los Angeles is 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games against the Cardinals — and they have covered their last 6 games against them in Arizona. 25* NFC West Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Rams (129) plus the points versus the Arizona Cardinals (130). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-12-21 |
Bears v. Packers UNDER 44 |
Top |
30-45 |
Loss |
-106 |
10 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (127) and the Green Bay Packers (128). THE SITUATION: Chicago (4-8) lost their sixth contest in their last seven games after their 33-22 loss at home to Arizona as a 7.5-point underdog last Sunday. Green Bay (9-3) won their second game in their last three with a 36-287 upset win against the Los Angeles Rams as a 2-point underdog on November 28th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Don’t blame the Bears' defense for the loss against the Cardinals — despite injuries, they only surrendered 14 first downs and 257 total yards to Arizona. Giving up 192 yards in returns yards on special teams played a big role. That is something that will be easier for Chicago to clean up this week. The Bears have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Chicago is holding their last three opponents to just 265.0 total Yards-Per-Game. But the Bears are scoring only 16.8 Points-Per-Game and averaging 298.8 total YPG — and now they go back on the road where those numbers drop to 14.3 PPG and 287.3 total YPG. The Bears have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total — and they have played 16 of their last 21 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Chicago has also played 16 of their last 23 road games Under the Total as an underdog. Green Bay has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, while the Packers gained 399 yards against the Rams defense two weeks ago, they have then played 4 straight Unders after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. Los Angeles gained 353 yards against them — and Green Bay has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Packers stay at home at Lambeau Field where they are holding their opponents to just 14.4 PPG. And the dynamic offense led by Aaron Rodgers is only scoring 27.8 PPG at home while averaging just 23.6 PPG on the season. Green Bay has played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total in December.
FINAL TAKE: Don’t be surprised to see the Packers running the ball a ton tonight as they look to rev up their two-headed monster of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon for the playoffs — and that likely means fewer offensive possessions. Green Bay has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams won are winning 25-40% of their games — and Chicago has played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams winning 60-75% of their games. 25* NFC North Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (127) and the Green Bay Packers (128). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-12-21 |
Giants +10 v. Chargers |
Top |
21-37 |
Loss |
-122 |
13 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 4:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the New York Giants (123) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (124). THE SITUATION: New York (4-8) has lost two of their last three games after their 20-9 loss at Miami as a 6.5-point underdog last week. Los Angeles (7-5) has won two of their last three games with their 41-22 win at Cincinnati as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS: Despite their losing record, New York is playing much better on defense as of late. They have held five of their last six opponents to no more than 20 points. The Giants have forced multiple turnovers in five of their last eight games. Since Week Seven, New York is allowing just 16.0 Points-Per-Game and 4.8 Yards-Per-Play which both rank fourth-best in the NFL during that span. Opposing quarterbacks have a Passer Rating of 70.7 since Week Seven as well — the fifth-lowest mark in the league. The Giants should play better this week as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. New York has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after losing two of their last three games. And they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game. With quarterback Daniel Jones still nursing a neck injury, the Giants will have Mike Glennon under center once again this week. Glennon was just OK last week — he completed 23 of 44 passes for 187 yards with an interception. One of the problems for the Giants is that Jones is not putting up much better numbers at this point in his career. Glennon is a capable backup with a completion percentage of 60.8% in 1049 career passing attempts. He has 44 touchdown passes to just 28 interceptions. The Giants have been ravaged with injuries but they are getting healthier with Saquon Barkley getting 17 touches last week in his third week back since missing over a month. It was encouraging for New York to limit the Dolphins to just 68 rushing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Giants have been reliable on the road where they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games away from home — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games as an underdog. Los Angeles has been inconsistent this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win by at least two touchdowns. The Chargers are also only 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 games after a game where they scored at least 30 points. After taking a 24-0 lead against the Bengals, Los Angeles let the Bengals back in the game with Cincinnati scoring a potential game-tying touchdown before they missed the two-point conversion. The Chargers then recovered a fumble on their 39-yard line which they returned for a touchdown early in the fourth quarter to take a nine-point lead and re-take control of the game. That upset victory was Los Angeles’ first point spread cover in their last four games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games at home after only covering the point spread once in their last three games. The Chargers return home where they are only 3-3 — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5 to 45 range. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 home games against teams with a losing record on the road — and they are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games at home when favored. The Chargers’ challenge is complicated with a COVID outbreak in their locker room. Wide receiver Keenan Allen is out and wide receiver Mike Williams is among a handful of players questionable as they look to clear quarantine protocols.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and New York has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. The Giants’ defense should keep them in this game against a Chargers’ team that had allowed at least 24 points in seven straight games before the Bengals only scored 22 points. 25* NFL Underdog of the Month with the New York Giants (123) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Chargers (124). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-09-21 |
Steelers v. Vikings -3 |
Top |
28-36 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Minnesota Vikings (102) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (101). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (5-7) has lost two games in a row after their 29-27 upset loss at Detroit as a 7-point favorite last week. Pittsburgh (6-5-1) snapped a three-game winless streak with a 20-19 upset win against Baltimore as a 4-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota has a losing record despite outscoring and out-gaining their opponents this season. All seven of their losses have been by one-scoring possession. They have scored at least 26 points in five straight games. This is as near a “gotta have it” game for the Vikings as there will be. They have typically played well under situations like this under head coach Mike Zimmer. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 42 of their last 61 games after a straight-up loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a loss to a division rival. And in their last 5 games after a loss by three points or less, the Vikings have covered the point spread 4 times. Minnesota has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing two games in a row. Quarterback Kirk Cousins will not have wide receiver Adam Thielen tonight with him being out with an ankle injury — but his productivity outside the Red Zone has declined this season. Dalvin Cook is a game-time decision to return to action earlier than expected from his shoulder injury — but Alexander Mattison is a very good running back if he does play. Cousins is enjoying a great season, albeit under the radar. He is completing 68.4% of his passes for over 3300 yards with 25 touchdown passes and just three interceptions. He has not tossed an interception in 246 straight pass attempts. Pittsburgh may be due for an emotional letdown after grinding out a win against their arch-rivals in the Ravens. As it is, the Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset loss. Additionally, Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread victory. The Steelers go back on the road for the third time in their last four games — and doing so on a short week will be a challenge. Pittsburgh has surrendered 41 points in each of their last two games away from home — and they are giving up 27.0 PPG and 389.4 total Yards-Per-Game on the road. Injuries have made things worse for the Steel Curtain — they are without cornerback Joe Haden and linebacker Robert Spillane. Pittsburgh has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games against teams with a losing record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in December. The Steelers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against NFC foes.
FINAL TAKE: The Vikings have been a disappointment in losing seven closes games this season — but they have finally completed a difficult stretch with four of their last five games being on the road. The last time they played at home, they upset Green Bay — and this will be an angry and embarrassed team after they shipped the Lions their first win of the year. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Year with the Minnesota Vikings (102) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (101). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-06-21 |
Patriots v. Bills -2.5 |
Top |
14-10 |
Loss |
-117 |
5 h 59 m |
Show
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At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Buffalo Bills (476) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (475). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (7-4) has won two of their last three games after their 31-6 win at New Orleans as a 7-point favorite last week. New England (8-4) won their sixth straight game in a row with their 36-13 victory against Tennessee as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE POINTS: My initial thought for this situation was to prefer Buffalo but I do like to make final decisions with fresh eyes. The biggest questions for tonight's game are (1) how significant of an impact will the weather have on the game and (2) how significant is the line movement in reaction to the weather? After waiting for the early afternoon forecast to make my final calls, the temperates appear destined to be in the 20s (wind chill in the teens) with winds 25-35 MPH and gusting up to 40 MPH. Precipitation does not seem likely by game-time -- so probably not blizzard conditions. I think there is a significant edge at Quarterback tonight. Josh Allen played four years in the cold at Wyoming. His big arm can cut through the wind a bit more -- and he has a few more years of big games under his belt. I like Mac Jones but his arm strength is not one of his best qualities (accuracy, decision-making, intellect) -- and his background is Florida then Alabama. Will these be the coldest temperatures he has ever played in? As it is, the New England offense only averages 309.0 total Yards-Per-Game on the road — a drop-off of -46.3 net YPG from their season average. Jones averages only 178 passing YPG in his five starts on the road with his 231 passing yards at Houston being his season-high away from home. The Patriots' recent winning streak has been fueled by them winning the turnover battle in each of those six games. They have forced four turnovers in two straight games while committing just one turnover themselves in those two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread 6 of their last 8 games after enjoying a +3 or better turnover margin in each of their last two games. New England surrendered 270 rushing yards to a Titans team without Derrick Henry last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game. Buffalo is 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a victory by 14 or more points. The Bills are also 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. Buffalo gained 361 yards against the Saints last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last contest. The Bills held New Orleans to just 190 total yards — and they are 9-1-2 ATS after not allowing more than 250 yards in their last game. Buffalo held the Saints to just 44 rushing yards as well — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 90 rushing yards in their last game. The Patriots will lean heavily on running the football on the road and in these weather conditions — but the Bills are fourth in the NFL by allowing just 3.9 rushing Yards-Per-Carry. Buffalo returns home where they are outscoring their guests by +8.8 Points-Per-Game and outgains them by +135.4 net Yards-Per-Game. The Bills are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games at home — and they are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 home games when favored.
FINAL TAKE: Buffalo has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games in December. The Patriots have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games in December. 25* AFC East Game of the Year with the Buffalo Bills (476) minus the points versus the New England Patriots (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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12-05-21 |
Broncos v. Chiefs UNDER 48 |
Top |
9-22 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 52 m |
Show
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At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (457) and the Kansas City (458). THE SITUATION: Denver (6-5) has won three of their last four games after their 28-13 upset win against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Kansas City (7-4) has won four games in a row after their 19-9 win against Dallas as a 2.5-point favorite two weeks ago.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 3-0-1 in the Broncos’ last 4 games after a win by 14 or more points — and they have played 5 straight Unders after a point spread win. The Under is also 15-5-1 in Denver’s last 21 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Broncos have held four of their last five opponents to 17 or fewer points. They are third in the league by allowing just 17.8 Points-Per-Game. They also have the third-best opposing quarterback Passer Rating of 82.7 in the NFL. They go on the road tonight where they are holding their home hosts to just 17.2 PPG and 312.0 total Yards-Per-Game. Denver has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total. But the Broncos' offense is limited with Teddy Bridgewater under center. They are scoring just 20.7 PPG — and they have scored under 20 points in five of their last eight games. Bridgewater completed 11 of 18 passes for 129 yards last week. While a quarterback that is allergic to taking chances is a good fit with a defense-first team, his unwillingness to throw the ball down the field makes it difficult to stay competitive with a team that averages 25.5 PPG. Denver has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 straight Unders as an underdog. Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and the Under is 11-3-1 in their last 15 games after a bye week. The Chiefs host this game where they are only scoring a surprising 21.5 PPG this season. Kansas City has played 4 of their last 5 games at home Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Mahomes has been in a mini-slump this season after being frustrated with the two-high safety cover-2 looks he is facing. But it is not just that — defenses have finally realized that blitzing Mahomes is too dangerous a proposition since he can evade the rush and torch the defense with Travis Kelce or Tyreeke Hill getting a few more seconds to evade fewer defenders. It is the cover-2 combined with the standard pass rush which is frustrating Mahomes. The Chiefs have not scored more than 20 points in four of their last five games and five of their last seven. But Kansas City is on a winning streak due to the improved play of their defense. Acquiring linebacker defensive end Melvin Ingram from Pittsburgh allowed Chris Jones to move back inside to defensive tackle where he prefers — and he has thrived. The Chiefs have not allowed more than 17 points in four straight games — and they have held their last three opponents to 10.0 PPG and just 292.0 total YPG. Don’t count out a defense coached by Steve Spagnuolo to improve as the season moves on. Kansas City has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total in December — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when favored.
FINAL TAKE: The Under is 14-5-1 in Denver’s last 20 games against AFC West foes — and the Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Broncos (457) and the Kansas City (458). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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12-05-21 |
Chargers +3 v. Bengals |
Top |
41-22 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (463) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (464). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (6-5) has lost two of their last three games after a 28-13 upset loss at Denver as a 2.5-point favorite last week. Cincinnati (7-4) has won two in a row after their 41-10 win against Pittsburgh as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles outgained the Broncos last week by +55 net yards after holding Denver to just 302 yards. Denver benefited from a 70-yard interception returned for a touchdown to flip the score. The Chargers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after an upset loss by 14 or more points. Los Angeles is playing close games — two of their losses were by just three points apiece. They are outgaining their opponents by +33.6 net Yards-Per-Game. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 road games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. Cincinnati dominated their arch-rivals in the Steelers last week which may set them up for an emotional letdown. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home. And while Cincinnati has scored at least 73 combined points in their last two weeks, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 25 points in their last two games. Led by Joe Mixon, the Bengals rushed for 198 yards last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game. The Chargers give up a lot of rushing yards — but that is because they are focusing on defending the pass. Los Angeles only allows 331.2 total Yards-Per-Game on the road. Cincinnati is only outgaining their opponents by +7.3 net YPG despite their 7-4 record — and they are getting outgained when playing at home. The Bengals have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games against teams with a winning record on the road (Chargers: 3-2 on the road). Four of Cincinnati’s wins have come against Detroit, Jacksonville, and Pittsburgh twice. They are just 3-4 against the rest of their competition. And Joe Burrow has been sacked 13 times in the last four weeks — the second-most of all quarterbacks during that span. Now here comes the Chargers’ Joey Bosa.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles is 35-16-4 ATS in their last 55 road games as an underdog. 25* AFC Underdog of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (463) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bengals (464). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-28-21 |
Browns +4.5 v. Ravens |
Top |
10-16 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Cleveland Browns (271) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (272). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (6-5) has won two of their last three games after a 13-10 win at home against Detroit as a 14-point favorite last week. Baltimore (7-3) has also won two of their last three games with their 16-13 win at Chicago as a 1-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE BROWNS PLUS THE POINTS: Cleveland has not looked very good in the last two weeks. They were flat against the winless Lions last week despite wanting to make a statement after their embarrassing 45-7 loss in New England the prior week. But injuries have played a role in the Browns’ subpar play — and they are getting healthy again. Nick Chubb returned to action last week to run the ball 22 times for 130 yards. Now both All-Pro right tackle Jack Conklin and running back Kareem Hunt are expected to play tonight. Cleveland is a different team when their potent ground game is at full strength. The Browns have scored 41 or more points twice this season. They should raise their level of play in this AFC North showdown as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a win at home where they did not cover the point spread. Cleveland held the Lions to only 245 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 350 yards in their last game. Baker Mayfield has been in a funk — but he loves playing against the Ravens. In his six career starts against Baltimore, Mayfield has thrown for at least 300 yards four times — and he has averaged 297 passing YPG in those six games. The rushing attack of the Browns travels — they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games as an underdog. Furthermore, Cleveland has covered the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams winning 60-75% of their games. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread win. And while Baltimore gave up 353 yards to Bears’ defense, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. The Ravens return home after a two-game road trip — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 57 games after playing their last two games on the road. Baltimore has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored by up to seven points. The Ravens have failed to score more than 17 points in three of their last four games. Lamar Jackson is expected to play tonight (he claimed to be “120%” confident he will play) after missing last week because of a non-COVID illness. But the Ravens have yet to demonstrate they have the full fix to the eight-man front that Miami deployed against them in their loss on Thursday Night Football that took away Jackson’s rushing lanes and forced him to pass. Baltimore scored only 10 points with 304 total yards against the Dolphins.
FINAL TAKE: The Ravens have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in November. 25* AFC North Game of the Month with the Cleveland Browns (271) plus the points versus the Baltimore Ravens (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-25-21 |
Bills v. Saints UNDER 47 |
Top |
31-6 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (109) and the New Orleans Saints (110). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (6-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 41-15 upset loss at home to Indianapolis as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. New Orleans (5-5) lost their third straight game with their 40-29 loss at Philadelphia as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bills have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss by 14 or more points. Buffalo has also played 6 straight Unders after a loss at home — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. The formula for success for head coach Sean McDermott tonight will likely be to play conservative, get a lead, and then don’t risk losing it. After getting upset on the road to Jacksonville by a 9-6 score three weeks ago, the Bills finally made a schematic change by putting quarterback Josh Allen under center to operate a more conventional rushing attack. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has probably been asking Allen to do too much — especially out of the shotgun formation. Buffalo also incorporated running back Matt Brieda in more rushing plays against the Jets. The result was a 45-14 victory where they ran the ball 24 times for 139 yards. But the Bills got away from that last week as they ran the ball just 13 times in their loss to Colts while having their offense on the field for just 22:13 minutes. Running the football will help the Buffalo offensive line and keep the energy up for their defense. The Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after allowing at least 30 points in their last game. The Bills have been outstanding on defense for most of the season. They are allowing just 17.6 PPG along with 283.7 total Yards-Per-Game — and they hold their home hosts to 16.0 PPG and 310.8 total YPG in their five road games. New Orleans only gained 323 yards last week in their loss at Philadelphia. The Saints’ offense is ravaged with injuries in their first year in the post-Drew Brees era. Running back Alvin Kamara will miss his third straight game with a knee. Mark Ingram is questionable with his knee injury — and he was simply a rotation running back with Houston before being re-acquired by New Orleans midseason. Quarterback Jameis Winston is out the season with his torn ACL and Taysom Hill is not 100% with a foot injury that limits his mobility. The offensive line is banged up — and wide receiver unit lacks a true number one with Michael Thomas not playing this year. Quarterback Trevor Siemian was effective early coming on in relief in the Saints’ upset win against Tampa Bay — but he is winless in his three starts while regressing in his quality of play as opposing defenses build their book up against him. He completed only 22 of 40 passes for 214 yards with two interceptions last week. That 5.4 yards-per-attempt passing average he had against the Eagles is sub-standard. He is ineffective if placed into obvious passing downs when playing from behind. New Orleans returns home after playing their last two games on the road — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road. The Saints’ defense is allowing only 21.8 PPG — but they need to bounce-back after getting embarrassed by Philadelphia. They allowed 383 total yards to the Eagles with 242 of them coming on the ground last week. New Orleans has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards. Turnovers are hurting this team as they have lost the turnover battle in three straight games. That explains why the Saints have allowed 30.0 PPG in those three games despite only giving up 336.7 total YPG during that span. New Orleans has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after losing the turnover battle in three straight games.
FINAL TAKE: The Saints have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total played on a Thursday. Buffalo has played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5. to 49 point range. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bills (109) and the New Orleans Saints (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-25-21 |
Bears v. Lions UNDER 42 |
Top |
16-14 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (105) and the Detroit Lions (106). THE SITUATION: Chicago (3-7) lost their fifth straight game with a 16-13 loss to Baltimore as a 1-point underdog on Sunday. Detroit (0-9-1) comes off a 13-10 loss at Cleveland as a 14-point underdog on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bears have played 23 of their last 32 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss at home. Additionally, Chicago has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing their last game Under the Total. And in their last 24 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last game, the Bears have played 17 of these games Under the Total. Justin Fields was knocked out of the Ravens game with a rib injury that will keep him out this afternoon. Andy Dalton will be under center for this game after completing less than 50% of his passes (11 of 23) against Baltimore. Chicago is scoring only 16.3 PPG and averaging 287.9 total Yards-Per-Game under offensive “guru” May Nagy — and that number drops to 14.0 PPG and 269.2 total YPG in their five games on the road. They have not scored more than 27 points all season while scoring 22 or fewer points in eight of their ten games and 20 points or less in seven of their games. The Bears did gain 353 total yards last week — but they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The good news for Chicago is they did hold Baltimore to only 299 total yards. They did not allow more than 17 points for the fourth time this season. Detroit has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after losing at least two in a row. The Lions have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. It looks like it will be Jared Goff under center for this one with him being listed as questionable with the oblique injury that kept him out against the Browns. Backup quarterback Tim Boyle completed 15 of 23 passes but for only 77 yards with two interceptions against Cleveland in demonstrating that he is not as effective as even a limited Goff. Detroit is scoring only 16.0 PPG — and they score just 16.8 PPG at home while averaging 292.8 total YPG. The Lions have not topped 19 points in nine straight games — and they are averaging a mere 10.7 PPG and 259.7 total YPG in their last three contests. Detroit has scored 26 points in their last two games — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 17 points in two straight games. The Lions’ defense has played better lately by only allowing 29 combined points in their last two contests. They did allow 184 rushing yards to the Browns last week but they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 150 rushing yards in their last game.
FINAL TAKE: Detroit has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total as an underdog — and Chicago has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Total is low for this one — but it simply would not be a shock if one (or both) of these teams failed to score double-digits especially after Nagy canceled team meetings on Tuesday amidst the rumors he was going to be fired after this game (although the Lions offense is not in better shape even with full meetings on Tuesday). 25* NFC North Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Chicago Bears (105) and the Detroit Lions (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-22-21 |
Giants v. Bucs UNDER 50.5 |
Top |
10-30 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (477) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478). THE SITUATION: New York (3-6) has won two of their last three games after their 23-16 upset victory against Las Vegas as a 3-point underdog back on November 7th. Tampa Bay (6-3) has lost two in a row after their 29-19 upset loss at Washington as a 10-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buccaneers have suffered two straight upset losses after losing in New Orleans as a 3.5-point road favorite on October 31st. Tom Brady misses his security blankets in wide receiver Antonio Brown and tight end Rob Gronkowski. Brown remains out tonight but Gronkowski could return to the field with his being listed as questionable — although how effective he will be with his sore back remains an issue. Tampa Bay gained only 273 yards against the Football Team. They were only on offense for 20:52 minutes. The Buccaneers only ran the ball 13 times for 53 yards — and they only had 14 rushes for 71 yards in their loss to the Saints. Look for Tampa Bay to get back to running the football. They had averaged 29.3 rushing attempts in their four games which were all victories. The Buccaneers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after failing to rush for at least 90 yards in their last game. Tampa Bay has also played 4 straight Unders after a straight-up loss — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Running the ball will also help the Buccaneers defense that has allowed 122 rushing YPG in their last four games after holding their first five opponents to just 46 rushing YPG. Tampa Bay misses Vita Tea on their defensive line who has been out with a knee injury. He is doubtful to play tonight — but asking the defense to be on the field five to ten minutes less than they were last week will help. So will returning home help where the Buccaneers hold their guests to just 18.5 PPG. Tampa Bay has played 19 of their last 27 games at home Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher. New York has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Giants managed only 247 total yards in the win last week with Daniel Jones completing 15 of 20 passes but for only 110 yards. New York has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 150 yards in their last contest. And while the Giants surrendered 403 yards to the Raiders, they have then played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after allowing at least 350 yards in their last game. New York’s defense has steadily improved this season. They have held their last three opponents to just 13.0 PPG and 314.7 total YPG. They go back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total as an underdog.
FINAL TAKE: The Giants have played 8 straight games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and the Under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games against NFC foes. New York has also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on Monday Night Football. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the New York Giants (477) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (478). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-21-21 |
Steelers v. Chargers -3.5 |
Top |
37-41 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Chargers (476) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (475). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (5-4) has lost three of their last four games after their 27-20 upset loss to Minnesota as a 3-point favorite last week. Pittsburgh (5-3-1) had their four-game winning streak snapped with a 16-16 tie with Detroit as a 6-point favorite last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE CHARGERS MINUS THE POINTS: I consider the Steelers a bit overrated — and they are ravaged with injuries for this one. Big Ben Roethlisberger will play after being removed from the COVID list — but he has not practiced in a couple of weeks. Granted, Roethlisberger is not a gym rat — but I still expect him to be rusty after being in quarantine. Left guard Kevin Dotson is out with a foot injury. The Pittsburgh defense is without their three best players in linebacker T.J. Watt, safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, and cornerback Joe Haden. Those losses on defense are devastating. As it is, Pittsburgh is being outscored and outgained this season. They are getting outgained by -46.7 net Yards-Per-Game on the road. The Steelers winning record is due to their 5-0-1 record in games decided by one-scoring possession. Mike Tomlin’s team could easily be 3-6 instead of 5-3-1. Their record is also skewed when considering that six of their nine games have been at home at Heinz Field. They are scoring just 18.3 PPG and averaging 301.3 total YPG in their three road games. Pittsburgh did game 387 yards last week against the Lions — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after gaining at least 350 yards in their last game. The Steelers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning four or five of their last six games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after playing their last game Under the Total including failing to cover the point spread in four of their five games this season after an Under. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 31 of their last 47 games after an upset loss at home as the favorite. The Chargers have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Los Angeles gave up 278 passing yards to the Vikings last week — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 250 yards in their last game. The good news for the Chargers is that they expect defensive end Joey Bosa to be back on the field after being on the COVID list. On their home field, Los Angeles is scoring 27.2 PPG while averaging 380.6 total YPG.
FINAL TAKE: The Chargers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against fellow AFC opponents. Against a depleted Steelers’ defense, Los Angeles should reach their home scoring average in the high-20s — and that is a mark that will be hard for Pittsburgh to match. The Steelers have not scored more than 17 points in five of their games. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Chargers (476) minus the points versus the Pittsburgh Steelers (475). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-18-21 |
Patriots v. Falcons +7.5 |
Top |
25-0 |
Loss |
-130 |
51 h 57 m |
Show
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At 8:20 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Atlanta Falcons (312) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (311). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (4-5) looks to rebound from their 43-3 loss at Dallas an 8-point underdog on Sunday. New England (6-4) has won four in a row with their 45-7 win against Cleveland as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: The Falcons have lost two of their last three games after catching an angry Cowboys team that was coming off their worst game of the season in an upset loss at home to Denver. Despite Atlanta being hit hard by injuries, rookie head coach Arthur Smith has done a good job with this team. After losing their first two games of the season by 49 combined points, the Falcons won four of their next six games with each of those contests decided by one-scoring possession. If there was a silver lining from Sunday’s blowout loss, it was that Matt Ryan left the game in the third quarter. The veteran quarterback will be rested and ready for this game on a short week. Atlanta went into halftime trailing by a 36-3 score — but they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after trailing by at least three touchdowns at halftime in their last game. The Falcons have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. A blocked punt returned for a touchdown and a -2 net turnover margin did not help matters — but Atlanta has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after suffering a -2 or worse turnover margin in their last game. The Falcons only gained 214 total yards in the loss — but they are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games after not gaining more than 250 yards in their last game and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last contest. And while the Cowboys gained 431 yards against them last week, Atlanta has then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after giving up at least 350 yards in their last game. New England is peaking in terms of market value after their 38-point win against the Browns — but they are just 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games after a straight-up win. The Patriots have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win at home — and they are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a point spread win. Additionally, New England is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Patriots have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning four or five of their last six games. Now they go back on the road where they are 4-0 — but they are gaining just 309.3 total YPG in those contests. Rookie quarterback Mac Jones has played much better than expected under offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels — but New England has supported him with a quality rushing attack. The Patriots rushed for 184 yards last week after gaining 151 yards on the ground in their previous game at Carolina. The Patriots are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after rushing for at least 150 yards in two straight games.
FINAL TAKE: After playing their last two games on the road, Atlanta returns home which gives them a situational edge in this matchup. The concept of selling high and buying low when handicapping football gets thrown around too loosely in my opinion — but this is a genuine opportunity to take advantage of that axiom fading a Patriots team that opened around a 4-point favorite but has been bet up to a touchdown or so favorite on the road on a short week. The market is overreacting to the blowout results both teams incurred last week. 25* NFL Thursday Night Football Game of the Month on the Atlanta Falcons (312) plus the points versus the New England Patriots (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-15-21 |
Rams v. 49ers UNDER 50.5 |
Top |
10-31 |
Win
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100 |
4 h 56 m |
Show
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At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (265) and the San Francisco 49ers (266). THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (7-2) had their four-game winning streak snapped last week with their 28-16 upset loss to Tennessee as a 7-point favorite last Sunday night. San Francisco (3-5) has lost five of their last six games after their 31-17 upset loss at home to Arizona as a 5.5-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rams’ defense held the Titans to just 194 total yards but were stagnant on offense. Matthew Stafford had his worst game in a Los Angeles uniform by completing 31 of 48 passes for 294 yards but with two interceptions with one returned for a touchdown. The Rams’ offensive line struggled to slow down the Tennessee four-man rush and Stafford’s play reminded Detroit Lions fans of the quarterback they would often witness. Stafford will be without Robert Woods for the rest of the season after suffering a torn ACL on Friday. That injury came a day after the team signed Odell Beckham. I am skeptical but keeping an open mind on how Beckham will work with the Rams. There may be early growing pains in getting Stafford and Beckham on the same page. Stafford struggled at times keeping the Lions' offense in synch under the pressure of feeding Calvin Johnson the football. Los Angeles only gained 347 total yards last week with head coach and play-caller Sean McVay abandoning the run game and the play-action game that brought him so much initial success with this offense. Scoring 38 points against the New York Giants and Houston Texans is great — but the Rams have not scored more than 28 points in their other four games since peaking in a 34-24 win against Tampa Bay the last Sunday night in September. Those 28 points were scored at home against Detroit, by the way. Los Angeles has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Rams have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Now Los Angeles goes back on the road where they have played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total when favored. San Francisco only gained 337 yards last week in their loss to a Colt McCoy-led Cardinals. The 49ers have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo did complete 28 of 40 passes for 326 yards in the losing effort — but the Niners have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last game. San Francisco returns home where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total hosting the Rams. They have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set at 49.5 or higher.
FINAL TAKE: The 49ers have seen 49 or fewer combined points in three of their four games at home in Levi Stadium. They have not scored more than 21 points in five of their eight games. The Rams have seen 51 or fewer points in three of their four games on the road. They have held seven of their nine opponents to 24 or fewer points. 25* NFC West Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Rams (265) and the San Francisco 49ers (266). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-14-21 |
Chiefs v. Raiders OVER 51.5 |
Top |
41-14 |
Win
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100 |
4 h 2 m |
Show
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At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (263) and the Las Vegas Raiders (264). THE SITUATION: Kansas City (5-4) has won two games in a row with their 13-7 victory against Green Bay as a 7.5-point favorite last Sunday. Las Vegas (5-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped with a 23-16 upset loss at New York against the Giants as a 3-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Chiefs have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as an underdog — and they have played 8 of their last 13 games Over the Total after a win by six points or less. Kansas City has also played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a game where neither team scored more than 14 points. The Chiefs have not covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have played four straight Unders. Kansas City has then played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after playing at least three straight Unders — and they have played 29 of their last 44 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three straight games. How long with the Patrick Mahomes slump continue? The Chiefs have only scored 36 combined points in their last three games. Facing the familiar Raiders’ defense may be just what the doctor ordered. Kansas City scored 35 and 32 points in their two games against Las Vegas last season. Mahomes has 15 touchdown passes in his six previous games against the Raiders. And while the Chiefs defense has only allowed 17 PPG in their last three games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Las Vegas has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and the have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Derek Carr completed 30 of 46 passes for 296 yards in the loss while leading the Raiders offense to 403 total yards. Las Vegas has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after gaining at least 400 yards run their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. The Raiders have averaged 423.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games — and they have played 14 of their last 17 home games Over the Total after averaging at least 400 YPG in their last three contests. Las Vegas returns home where they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total — and the Over is 10-0-1 in their last 11 home games when they are the underdog. The Over is also 8-3-1 in the Raiders’ last 12 games against teams with a winning record. Las Vegas should be able to move the football against this Chiefs defense that allows 396.6 total YPG on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Kansas City sees 54.3 combined points scored when playing on the road while Las Vegas averages 50.6 combined points when playing at home. The Raiders have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when hosting the Chiefs. 25* AFC West Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas City Chiefs (263) and the Las Vegas Raiders (264). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-07-21 |
Titans v. Rams OVER 52.5 |
Top |
28-16 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 21 m |
Show
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At 8:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). THE SITUATION: Tennessee (6-2) has won four straight games after their 34-31 upset win in overtime at Indianapolis as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Los Angeles (7-1) has won four straight games after their 38-22 win at Houston as a 17-point favorite last week.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Tennessee has scored at least 24 points in seven straight games — but they have given up at least 27 points five times already this season. The Over is 21-8-1 in the Titans’ last 31 games after a straight-up win — and the Over is 10-2-1 in their last 13 games after a point spread victory. The Tennessee offense will be learning to live life without running back Derrick Henry for an extended period given his foot injury. The reports this week indicate that Adrian Peterson looked good in practice after he was signed to take on the rushing duties — he should be at least serviceable. I do expect the Titans to lean more on their passing attack. Wide receiver Julio Jones is healthy again — and the reports I am seeing indicate that wide receiver A.J. Brown is expected to play tonight despite being limited in practice this week. Tennessee has played 10 of their last 11 road games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road against teams with a losing record on the road. The Titans have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total as an underdog. The Over is 6-1-1 in Los Angeles’ last 8 games after a straight-up win. Matthew Stafford completed 21 of 32 passes for 305 yards with three touchdown passes in the win against the Texans last week — and the Over is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games after passing for at least 250 yards in their last contest. The Rams have the best offense in the NFL according to the DVOA metric by Football Outsiders — and they are averaging 6.5 Yards-Per-Play. They are scoring 30.6 PPG — and they have scored at least 26 points in seven of their eight games. But Los Angeles gave up 279 passing yards to Houston last week — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last contest. The Rams are allowing 23.5 PPG and a 412.0 total YPG in their four games at home. Their run defense ranks 18th in DVOA — so I do think Tennessee will still be able to run the ball even without Henry.
FINAL TAKE: Los Angeles has played 4 straight Overs against teams with a winning record — and the Over is 15-5-1 in the Titans’ last 21 games against teams with a winning record. 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Tennessee Titans (473) and the Los Angeles Rams (474). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-07-21 |
Falcons v. Saints UNDER 43 |
Top |
27-25 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 29 m |
Show
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At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (465) and the New Orleans Saints (466). THE SITUATION: Atlanta (3-4) had their two-game winning streak snapped last week in a 19-13 upset loss to Carolina as a 2.5-point favorite. New Orleans (5-2) has won three games in a row after their 36-27 upset win against Tampa Bay as a 4-point underdog last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams are missing key players on offense. For the Falcons, it is wide receiver Calvin Ridley who is out indefinitely for personal reasons. With Julio Jones gone from the team, quarterback Matt Ryan is suddenly without reliable weapons at wide receiver. They gained only 213 yards last week against the Panthers. Atlanta has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss to an NFC South rival. To compound matters for the Falcons’ offense, Ryan is dealing with a hand injury after getting cleated last week. He has stitches in his hand from that mishap which may impact his throwing. The Atlanta defense is improving under defensive coordinator Dean Pees. They have held their last three opponents to 22.3 Points-Per-Game and 325.0 total Yards-Per-Game. The Falcons have also not allowed an opposing rusher to gain at least 100 yards on the ground in 23 straight games — so Alvin Kamara may not be able to carry the Saints offense with his rushing. Atlanta has played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total. They have also played 22 of their last 31 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. New Orleans has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Saints have played 6 straight Unders after scoring at least 30 points in their last game. The New Orleans offense will be quarterbacked by Trevor Siemian given the season-ending knee injury to Jameis Winston. The Saints’ offense has already been limited this season with Michael Thomas on the shelf — and the wide receiver will not be returning this season after a mishap in his recovery. New Orleans is averaging 25.1 PPG but they rank 29th in the NFL by averaging only 305.9 total YPG and second-to-last with a 180.9 passing YPG mark. They are last in the league with just 15 Big Plays on offense this year. The Saints defense surrendered 421 yards last week to the Buccaneers — but they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after giving up at least 350 yards in their last game. New Orleans holds their opponents to just 18.3 PPG and 344.3 total YPG. They stay at home where they have played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road.
FINAL TAKE: The Saints have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against NFC South opponents. 25* NFC South Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Atlanta Falcons (465) and the New Orleans Saints (466). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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