At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Aston Villa (200106) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200107). THE SITUATION: Aston Villa (W8-D2-L6) has lost three matches in a row after their 2-0 loss at Manchester City on Wednesday. Newcastle United (W5-D4-L9) has also lost three in a row after their 3-0 loss at Arsenal on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE ASTON VILLA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Villans have endured a difficult schedule as of late with matches against Liverpool and Manchester United along with their most recent match against Man City. They also had to play Man City on the road after not having played since New Year’s Day given COVID cancellations so rust was an issue. Yet they stayed competitive with the Cityzens with that match scoreless until the 79th minute. Aston Villa had been on a five-match unbeaten streak with three victories before this recent stretch. The Villans are a dynamic attacking team that averages 15.6 shots-per-match along with 1.81 non-penalty kick Big Chances per match and 1.81 non-penalty kick expected goals (xG) per contest. Aston Villa is fifth in the EPL in xG. They are also underperforming at home in Villa Park this season. While they have 10 points from their W3-D1-L3 mark at home, their expected points (xPTS) using expected goals rise to 13.67. Newcastle is a mess that is winless in their last nine matches. Manager Steve Bruce moved away from his uber-conservative 5-4-1 system to a 4-4-2 against Arsenal on Monday to generate more offense — but they only managed four shots and 0.19 xG against the Gunners. The Magpies have been blanked in six of their last seven matches across all competitions (and four of their last five in the EPL). And while the five defensive backs are supposed to stymie opposing attacks, Newcastle still has the fifth worse expected goals allowed (xGA) in the league — and the 1.90 xGA they surrender on the road is the third-highest mark in the EPL. Yet playing with one less defender last week against the middling Arsenal attack, the Magpies have an xGA of 2.41 while allowing 20 shots and those three goals. Aston Villa has thrived in generating pressure in deep-lying opponents like Newcastle. In home matches against similar defensive schemes against Sheffield United, Burnley, and Crystal Palace, the Villans generated 17, 29, and 22 shots. And in home matches against quality opponents Southampton and Liverpool, Aston Villa had 18 and 19 shots — and they scored seven goals against the reigning EPL champs in Liverpool. The Magpies allow 15.3 shots-per-match which is the second-most in the EPL. They have allowed 23 shots against Tottenham, 21 shots against Man United, 28 shots against Leeds United, and 20 shots on Monday against Arsenal.

FINAL TAKE: Aston Villa will have plenty of scoring opportunities in this match. The Villans have won four of their last six EPL matches and six of their last eight matches across all competitions by at least three goals — so if they win this match, it will likely be by more than one goal. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with the Aston Villa (200106) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200107). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Burnley (200101) and Liverpool (200102). THE SITUATION: Burnley (W4-D4-L9) has lost two straight games after their 1-0 loss at West Ham on Saturday. Liverpool (W9-D7-L2) is winless in their last four matches in the English Premier League after their 0-0 draw with Manchester United last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Liverpool offensive attack has stalled. They have not scored in their last three league matches — and they have scored just once in their last four EPL matches. They have a mere 6.36 expected goals (xG) in their last four matches. What is going on? Two things. First, manager Jurgen Klopp has his team playing less aggressively in the press since the injury to center back Virgil Van Dijk. The Reds have a strong expected goals allowed mark of 1.10 since Van Dijk’s injury. Liverpool has allowed only three goals in their last six matches with three clean sheets — so Klopp’s adjustment has been effective in tightening things up for them after experiencing some vulnerabilities in the back. But it has taken a toll on the potency of their attack. Second, the Reds’ attackers are not in form. Mo Salah is in a slump. He is averaging only 0.36 non-penalty kick expected goals per match this season — and he has not registered even one shot inside the six-yard box. It has been a very busy schedule for these players with the late start of the season — fatigue is an issue. And don’t discount the possibility that Salah’s positive COVID test did not take a toll on his health and stamina. COVID clearly had a negative impact on the Cleveland Brown’s Myles Garrett who saw his elite play decline when he turned to action. Sadio Mane has not been in his top form either while Roberto Firmino has been in decline for over a calendar year. In their last four matches, they are averaging 1.34 xG per match which is well below the 2.07 xG they averaged in their first 14 games. The slide has been taking place before the festive schedule as well. In their last nine EPL matches, the Reds are averaging 1.56 xG per 95 minutes which is a sharp decline from the 2.53 xG they had before that. Burnley has played four straight matches with 1-0 final results. The Clarets have seen no more than two combined goals scored in seven of their last eight matches. Burnley plays a compact defensive system that makes it difficult for opponents to penetrate. They have allowed only five goals in their last eight matches across all competitions including limiting the powerful Man United attack to just 1.41 xG. In their last seven league matches since their embarrassing 5-0 loss at Man City, the Clarets have not allowed more than one goal in a match while registering three clean sheets. But this focus on defense makes the Burnley attack toothless. The Clarets have scored only nine times this season which is the fewest in the EPL — and their 13.88 xG is second-to-last. They have been blanked in their last two matches after registering a mere 0.44 xG against West Ham on Saturday.

FINAL TAKE: Liverpool does get center back Joel Matip back for this match — and that will allow Klopp to move Jordan Henderson back to the middle field position where he is one of the best holding midfielders in the world. This development makes the Reds defensive cohesion even better. These two teams played to a 1-1 draw when they played at Anfield last year when the Liverpool attack was in better form. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* EPL Thursday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Burnley (200101) and Liverpool (200102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Manchester United (200091) minus the goal-line versus Fulham (200092). THE SITUATION: Manchester United (W11-D4-L3) enters this match coming off a 0-0 draw at Liverpool on Sunday. Fulham (W2-D6-L9) suffered their first loss in six English Premier League matches on Saturday in their 1-0 loss at home to Chelsea.

REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER UNITED MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Cottagers have been settling from several draws as of late — they are now winless in their last seven EPL matches. This team is playing more cautiously as of late with an increased emphasis on defense under manager Scott Parker. However, this has taken away any bite they had in their attack. Fulham has mustered only 1.18 expected goals (xG) since their 2-0 loss to Manchester City on December 5th — and they have scored only three goals in those last seven EPL contests. The Cottagers are second-to-last in non-penalty kick xG. Fulham has been pretty stingy at home as of late where they have allowed only two goals hosting Liverpool, Brighton, Southampton, and Chelsea. But that defensive focus has come at a cost as the Cottagers have blanked in three straight home contests. Man United has rediscovered their defensive cohesion they enjoyed in the second half of last season when they went on a great defensive run. The Red Devils have registered three straight clean sheets across all competitions — and they have four clean sheets in their last six contests in all competitions. This team has been in their best form when away from Old Trafford. They have won seven of their nine league matches in league play with two draws against top-flight sides Liverpool and Leicester City being the two exceptions. They are also scoring goals in bunches with them registering at least three goals in six of their nine league matches away from home. I would certainly consider these results as due for some regression — but they have now been doing this for a full calendar year away from home. In their last 16 EPL road matches, Man United is averaging 1.77 xG while holding their home hosts to 1.23 expected goals allowed (xGA).

FINAL TAKE: Paul Pogba seems in better spirits with his team as of late — and when he is contributing, the Red Devils starting XI becomes quite powerful. Man United tends to overwhelm inferior opponents — they have scored 25 goals in their last eight league matches against promoted sides. Their vulnerability is against counter-attacking sides — but the Cottagers are not very aggressive in taking those chances (and they do not feature great attacking talent). The Red Devils have won their last four matches at Fulham with 12 goals scored and just one conceded. 25* EPL Wednesday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with Manchester United (200091) minus the goal-line versus Fulham (200092). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Leicester City (200162) with the goal-line versus Chelsea (200161). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W11-D2-L5) is unbeaten in six straight matches across all competitions after their 2-0 win against Southampton on Saturday. Chelsea (W8-D5-L5) comes off a 1-0 win at Fulham on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE LEICESTER CITY WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The Foxes as good as they have all season right now. They have scored 15 goals while conceding just four times in their last six matches. They have won three straight matches across all competitions with two clean sheets, eight goals scored and just one goal conceded. And in their last five matches in the English Premier League, Leicester City has three wins and two draws — and they have won the expected goals (xG) battle by at least +0.50 xG In four of those five contests. It is amazing what getting healthy can do for a side. The Foxes do not have the financial clout to buy a complete roster that compares to the Big Six sides like Chelsea. But their starting XI when at full strength compares favorably to almost every team in the EPL. Getting midfielders James Maddison and Wilfred Ndidi back on the pitch healthy makes a significant difference. Maddison is the team’s second-best scoring threat to Jamie Vardy — he scored the initial goal against the Saints on Saturday. His presence takes much of the pressure off Vardy. The rub with this Foxes team has been that much of their offense was dependent on penalty kicks early in the season — and relying on getting penalties is unsustainable (especially with officials not being as liberal when interpreting the handball rule as they were early on). Yet since December 22nd, Leicester City is sixth in the EPL in non-penalty kick expected goals which is a testament to the impact of Maddison’s return to action. Ndidi is one of the most underrated holding midfielders in the world. Since losing 3-0 at Liverpool on November 22nd, the Foxes have an expected goals allowed mark (xGA) of 1.03 which is third-best in the league over that span. Ndidi and Maddison are probably the team’s second and third most important players after Vardy. Chelsea is in poor form right now with a W1-D1-L2 mark in their last four matches with eight goals conceded and just four goals scored. The Blues scored the winning goal against a weak Fulham side in the 78th minute despite holding a man advantage on the pitch after the 44th minute due to a Cottagers’ red card. Injuries have impacted the Chelsea defensive structure with Ngolo Kante and Reese James ailing. Since December 20th, the Blues rank 13th in non-penalty kick xGA with opponents have too much success with passes inside their penalty box area. This vulnerability caused manager Frank Lampard to overcompensate to help his defense — but that shift in tactics has led to the Blues offensive non-penalty xG to drop to ninth since December 20th. Lampard continues to be a work-in-progress as a manager. He has yet to push the right buttons to get the most out of all the talent that the franchise has developed and purchased over the last two years. Lampard expects to get James back on the pitch from his hamstring injury — but he will still be without Kante who remains one of the top-three holding midfielders in the world.

FINAL TAKE: Vardy has been dealing with a hip injury but he should be able to play in this important game this afternoon. These are two teams moving in opposite directions in terms of form — it is nice to be able to grab the Foxes at a pick ‘em for some insurance against a draw. 25* EPL Tuesday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Leicester City (200162) with the goal-line versus Chelsea (200161). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Arsenal (200194) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200193). THE SITUATION: Arsenal (W7-D3-L8) looks to rebound from a listless 0-0 draw at home against Crystal Palace last Thursday. Newcastle (W5-D4-L8) comes off a 1-0 loss at Sheffield United last Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE ARSENAL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Gunners have been playing better as of late with three straight wins before their draw with the Eagles. Arsenal is unbeaten in their last five matches across all competitions with four victories and four clean sheets — and they have a low expected goals allowed mark (xGA) of 1.24 in those five matches. This recent stretch all started at home last month with a huge 3-1 victory over Chelsea in English Premier League action. Manager Mikel Arteta was starting to hear whispers of him being on the hot seat — and he responded by turning to some youngsters to instill some energy and enthusiasm into the starting XI. Kieran Tierney, Emile Smith-Rowe, and Bukayo Saka have all offered breaths of fresh air — although Tierney did not play last week with a calf injury. Frankly, Arsenal was flat and very disappointing in their energy and effort on Thursday. That performance certainly got Arteta’s attention — it needs to be addressed in this contest. The good news is that Tierney’s calf has improved and he should be on the pitch for this game. The last time the Gunners did not win a match was on December 19th when they lost to Everton by a 2-1 score — and it was after that match that Arteta coaxed his best effort of the season from his team in that upset win against Chelsea. This remains a team that has scored eight goals in their last three EPL matches. Newcastle is winless in their last eight matches in all competitions with six losses. In their loss to Sheffield United, they allowed one of the worst attacks in the league to generate 2.13 expected goals (xG). Manager Steve Bruce is firmly on the hot seat — and he may have lost the support of his players. He continues to play five defenders in an uninspired system that is not even generating better defensive play. The Magpies are allowing 1.62 xGA this season which is the sixth-worst in the league. They have allowed more than one goal in three of their last six matches. It is even worse on the road where they are allowing their home hosts to achieve 1.93 xG — and they have surrendered eight goals in their last three road matches in the EPL. They have also allowed multiple goals in three of their last five road contests. Yet playing five defenders has resulted in the Magpies attack being almost non-existent. Over their last five matches, Newcastle is producing only 0.66 non-penalty kick expected goals — and they have not scored a goal from open play in that span. The Magpies have also been shutout in five of their last six matches.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played nine days ago on January 9th in the FA Cup with Arsenal winning by a 2-0 score. The Gunners needed extra time to score those two goals — so they did not walk away from that match brimming with confidence. I am very high on Arteta as a tactician — I expect him to make some adjustments to create earlier scoring chances. If (and when) Arsenal scores earlier in this match, Bruce will have to have his team open up more — and those conditions should lead to the Gunners winning comfortably. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Arsenal (200194) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200193). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Arsenal (200146) minus the goal-line versus Crystal Palace (200145). THE SITUATION: Arsenal (W7-D2-L8) has won three straight matches in English Premier League action with their 4-0 win at West Brom on January 2nd. Crystal Palace (W6-D4-L7) snapped a five-game winless streak in the EPL on January 2nd with a 2-0 win at Sheffield United.

REASONS TO TAKE ARSENAL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Gunners’ manager Mikel Arteta found himself firmly on the hot seat last month with this Big Six EPL power underachieving relative to the sky-high expectations for this franchise. Yet everything turned around starting with a surprise 3-1 upset victory at home in the Emirates against Chelsea on Boxing Day on December 26th. Arsenal dominated the pitch against a good Blues team. The Gunners followed that up with a solid victory against Brighton and Hove Albion before their four-goal victory against West Brom. Arsenal last played on Saturday when they advanced in the FA Cup with a quality 2-0 victory against Newcastle United — that victory gave them four-straight wins across all competitions.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200133) and Southampton (200134). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W9-D6-L1) comes off a 0-0 draw at Newcastle United last Wednesday. Southampton (W7-D5-L4) is winless in their last four matches after their 0-0 draw with West Ham United last Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: If this was football and I saw two teams coming off scoreless games (or uber-low scoring), I would be skeptical of taking the Under. But soccer is different — the total has fallen given market pressures in response to the recent scores. In fact, there are a lot more 3.25s out there than there were at my bedtime last night when there were 3s and 2.75s. These are two sides struggling with their form in the attack while simultaneously very deliberating playing a more cautious approach. Southampton played a nil-nil draw with Fulham in their previous match where they only generated 0.33 expected goals (xG). They did get their best striker, Danny Ings, back last week. Yet this remains a team that is averaging only 1.10 xG per match this season which is the sixth-lowest mark in the league. The Saints were always due to see some regression from the strong scoring numbers over the summer in Project Restart. They have now not scored in three straight matches. But they are playing better defensively with two straight clean sheets. They have an expected goals allowed per game mark of 1.25 xGA. They have held their last five opponents to 1.0 or lower xG. The high press of manager Ralph Hassenhuttl is being deployed more judiciously this season. Keep Alex McCarthy is out because of COVID but his backup is Ben Forster who is a quality keeper with years of starting experience in the EPL (that knowledge is the small reward of years of playing EPL fantasy …). Liverpool is dealing with a bevy of injuries in their back end with Virgil Van Dijk and Joe Gomez out long-term — and center back Joe Matip will miss this game. The good news for manager Jurgen Klopp is that Thiago Alcantara returned for that match against Newcastle — the former Bayern Munich holding midfielder is an excellent defensive player. Klopp has shifted tactics this season with his team playing far less aggressively with pressing tactics to compensate for the losses in their backline. Since the injury to Van Dijk, the Reds had allowed 1.20 expected goals per match which would be good for top-five in the league — and that was before holding the Magpies to just 0.79 xG. And since October 24th, Liverpool has not allowed more than one goal in any of their eleven league matches — and they have four clean sheets over that span. This focus on defense has taken away from the offensive prowess of this Reds’ side. Liverpool has scored more than two goals in just three of those eleven league contests. And while they exploded for seven goals in their last match on the road against Crystal Palace, that was likely an aberration that spoke more about the defensive effort of the Eagles that day. The Reds have scored just three combined goals in their previous three matches on the road before that showing. Liverpool is not playing great away from Anfield — they have only won two of their eight EPL matches on the road. Klopp will not likely feel ambitious about an aggressive attack today against a quality side that will burn them in the counterattack.

FINAL TAKE: Klopp’s tactics usually work against Southampton. They have held the Saints to only two goals in their last eight matches with six clean sheets. Maybe Southampton scores — but I don’t see this Liverpool offense bagging more than two goals on the road. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200133) and Southampton (200134).  Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200089) and Newcastle United (200090). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W9-D5-L1) comes off a 1-1 draw against West Brom on Sunday. Newcastle (W5-D3-L6) is winless in their last three matches after a 2-0 loss at Manchester City on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Liverpool is dealing with a bevy of injuries in their back end with Virgil Van Dijk and Joe Gomez out long-term — and center back Joe Matip will miss this game. The good news for manager Jurgen Klopp is that Thiago Alcantara might be fit enough to return — the former Bayern Munich holding midfielder is an excellent defensive player. Even if Thiago cannot take the pitch, this game should still be a lower-scoring match. Klopp has shifted tactics this season with his team playing far less aggressively with pressing tactics to compensate for the losses in their backline. Since the injury to Van Dijk, the Reds are allowing 1.20 expected goals per match which would be good for top-five in the league. And since October 24th, Liverpool has not allowed more than one goal in any of their ten league matches — and they have three clean sheets over that span. This focus on defense has taken away from the offensive prowess of this Reds’ side. Liverpool has scored more than two goals in just three of those ten league contests. And while they exploded for seven goals in their last match on the road against Crystal Palace, that was likely an aberration that spoke more about the defensive effort of the Eagles that day. The Reds have scored just three combined goals in their previous matches on the road before that showing. Liverpool is not playing great away from Anfield — they have only won two of their seven EPL matches on the road. Klopp will not likely feel ambitious about an aggressive attack today. Newcastle is third-to-last in the EPL with 1.14 expected goals (xG) per match. The Magpies will be without two of their more talented offensive players in this match with Allan Saint-Maximin and Jamaal Lascelles injured — but manager Steve Bruce should insert Callum Wilson back into the starting XI after he did not play against Man City. Newcastle does not engage in an ambitious approach on the pitch. They have scored only seven goals in their nine home matches in the EPL this season. But their defense has been solid — they are 10th in the league by allowing 1.42 expected goals allowed (xGA) per contest.

FINAL TAKE: These are also two teams that are being worked hard right now. This is Liverpool’s third match in ten days while Newcastle is playing their fourth match in ten days. The wear and tear tires out the legs with the players having just a little less energy on the pitch. This should be a lower-scoring match with a Liverpool clean sheet very possible. 25* EPL Wednesday Afternoon O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200089) and Newcastle United (200090). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200085) plus the goal-line versus Manchester United (200086). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W6-D3-L6) enters this match coming off a 1-1 draw against Tottenham on Sunday. Man United (W8-D3-L3) settled for a 1-1 draw at Leicester City on Saturday in their most recent match.

REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Man United is unbeaten in the English Premier League since a 1-0 loss to Arsenal on November 1st. That loss to the Gunners continued to expose a weakness of this Red Devils team under Gunnar Solskjaer: they tend to struggle against defensive-minded counter-attacking sides. Remember, Man United did not advance out of the Group Stage of the Champions League last month because of a terrible 2-1 loss to Istanbul Basekeshir. Since that result, the Red Devils have settled for a nil-nil draw with Newcastle United while barely defeating a Sheffield United team by a 3-2 score that looks destined for relegation. The Man United defense has taken a step back from last season — they rank just 9th in the EPL in expected goals allowed (xGA) with that mark lowering to 11th in the league in xGA when playing at home at Old Trafford. The Red Devils have also been pretty fortunate with their 30 goals this season since their expected goals (xG) projects only 24.34 goals for them. Man United is 4th in the table with 27 points — but their 22.38 expected Points (xPTS) would place them seventh. Wolverhampton has some nice recent results with that draw with the Spurs and a 2-1 victory over Chelsea on December 15th. The Wolves miss Raul Jimenez as their striker — but this remains an organized team under manager Nuno Espirito Santo. Wolverhampton is not quite as stout defensively as they were last season when opponents managed only 0.92 xG in non-penalty kick scoring opportunities. That number has risen to 1.10 nonPK xGA this year — but that is still a stingy number.

FINAL TAKE: The Wolves thrive in the type of tactics that stymie Manchester United. This Red Devils team also has chemistry issues with Paul Pogba wanting to be released and Solskjaer continuing to sit on the hot seat given his team’s inconsistent play. A draw is very possible — and a Wolves upset is more likely than Man United winning by more than one goal. 25* EPL Tuesday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with Wolverhampton (200085) plus the goal-line versus Manchester United (200086). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (200193) and Chelsea (200194). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W6-D3-L4) has lost only once in their last six matches after their 1-1 draw against Crystal Palace last Wednesday. Chelsea (W6-D4-L3) has lost two straight matches in the English Premier League after their 2-1 loss at home to Wolverhampton last Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: West Ham has been very reliable on the attack this season even with their top striker, Michail Antonio, being out since November. The Hammers have scored at least one goal in fifteen of their last sixteen matches across all competitions. West Ham has generated at least 2.0 expected goals in two of their last three matches including a sharp 2.67 xG mark against Manchester United. This team is playing well with four wins and a draw in their last six EPL matches. The Hammers have scored 11 goals in their six road matches in league play. All six of these contests have seen at least three combined goals. Chelsea is desperate for a win after losing their last two matches to fall to eighth place in the EPL table. The Blues had been unbeaten in their previous fourteen matches across all competitions. This team could put up a big number against this West Ham team that has allowed 16 goals in their thirteen matches. Chelsea is tied for third in the league with 26 goals — and their expected goals mark of 23.63 is third-best in the EPL. The Blues have scored at least one goal in nine of their last eleven games across all competitions.

FINAL TAKE: Chelsea scored three and four goals in their first two matches of the month against Leeds United and then Sevilla in the Champions League before their recent slump where they have scored only two goals in their last three matches. The Blues have scored two more goals in seven of their thirteen league matches. They have scored 14 goals in their six home matches at Stamford Bridge. Look for them to break out of their slump in a must-win match. 25* EPL Monday Afternoon Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (200193) and Chelsea (200194). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Tottenham (200177) and Liverpool (200178). THE SITUATION: Tottenham (W7-D4-L1) remained unbeaten in their last eleven English Premier League matches on Sunday with their 1-1 draw at Crystal Palace. Liverpool (W7-D4-L1) comes off a disappointing 1-1 draw at Fulham on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Spurs had registered four straight clean sheets before allowing that goal to the Eagles. Tottenham leads the EPL by allowing only 10 goals this season. Manager Jose Mourinho often keeps six players back on defense in a cautious approach that finds success because of the clinical scoring prowess of Harry Kane and Son Heung-Min. But the Spurs are scoring at a rate that is unsustainable relative to the pressure they are creating. They have only 18.80 expected goals (xG) versus their 24 actual goals. On the road, they have scored 14 times despite their xG of 9.88. Six of those goals came in their 6-1 barrage victory at Old Trafford against a Man United side that gave up in the second half. In their other three wins away from home, Tottenham has scored four times despite a minuscule 1.18 combined xG in those three matches. In their 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace, they managed only 1.21 xG. Liverpool is dealing with a number of injuries. Defensemen Virgil Van Dijk, Joe Gomez, and Thiago Alacantara are all injured along with defensive midfielder Joe Milner. These absences have compelled manager Jurgen Klopp to change tactics with him abandoning the high line press that was the Reds’ signature over the last two seasons which brought home a Champions League and English Premier League title. Liverpool has played more conventional while taking fewer chances of going on the attack. In their last four matches across all competitions, the Reds have conceded only two goals. Yet the Reds have not scored more than one goal in five of their last six contests. Forward Sadio Mane is out-of-form which has hurt the offensive attack. And while Trent Alexander-Arnold returned from his injury last week, he is not at 100% with his offensive skill limited. Liverpool hosts this match at Anfield where they have won all six of their EPL matches this season while conceding just six times — and their expected goals allowed mark (xGA) is even better at 5.46 in those contests.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on January 11th in EPL action with Liverpool eking out a 1-0 victory at Tottenham Stadium in a match after Mourinho had taken over the team. Expect another cautious, low-scoring affair. 25* EPL Midweek NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Tottenham (200177) and Liverpool (200178). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Shakhtar Donetsk (224381) and Inter Milan (224382). THE SITUATION: Shakhtar Donetsk (W2-D1-L2) looks to build off their 2-0 upset win over Real Madrid in the Champions League last Tuesday. Inter Milan (W1-D2-L2) comes off a 3-2 win against Borussia Monchengladbach last Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Group B remains very much in flux this afternoon with all four teams in the group still alive to take the two slots in the knockout stage Round of 16. Inter Milan begins the day in last place with 5 points. They must win this match then hope that the simultaneous Borussia Monchengladbach-Real Madrid showdown does not end in a draw. A loss would be disastrous for manager Antonio Conte since they would not even finish in third place which would qualify them for this season’s Europa League. The Nerazzurri won the Europa League last year which gave them higher aspirations for this year. They come off a 3-1 victory over Bologna in Serie A action on Saturday. Romelu Lukaku scored his 12th goal in all competitions in that match. This is a high-scoring team under Conte which does not have the defensive template that Conte deployed to win the English Premier League title with Chelsea nor his previous teams with Juventus. Inter Milan have scored at least three goals in four of their last five matches across all competitions. But this club has only one clean sheet in their last eight matches. Conte’s team is getting healthy — and they get Arturo Vidal back after he was suspended for that last match with Borussia Monchengladbach after he was issued a red card in the previous Champions League match with Real Madrid. Shakhtar Donetsk comes off a 5-1 win over Minai on Saturday. They have scored 30 goals in their 12 matches in the Ukrainian top-flight league. They begin the day in second place in Group B with 7 points and owning the tie-breaker against Real Madrid who also has 7 points but lost to Shakhtar Donetsk twice. A loss would ruin their Round of 16 hopes while a draw keeps them alive only if Real Madrid does not win their match. Defense is an issue for manager Luis Castillo’s team as they have surrendered 12 goals in their five group stage matches.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a nil-nil draw in the reverse fixture on October 27th. The rematch will not be scoreless — and the urgency with this contest will likely ensure plenty of goals. 25* Champions League Group Stage Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Shakhtar Donetsk (224381) and Inter Milan (224382). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing RB Leipzig (224358) with the goal-line versus Manchester United (224357) in Group H play in the Champions League. THE SITUATION: RB Leipzig (W3-D0-L2) is unbeaten in three straight matches across all competitions after their 4-3 win at Istanbul Basaksehir last Wednesday in the Champions League. Manchester United (W3-D0-L2) looks to bounce back from their 3-1 loss to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE RB LEIPZIG WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Both these teams are tied with PSG in first-place in Group H. PSG is a -2.75 goal-line favorite against Istanbul Basahsehir so they are likely to be one of the two teams to advance to the knockout stage Round of 16. Man United won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 5-0 score on October 28th — so RB Leipzig needs the three points in this match that come from a victory. The Red Bulls do come off an impressive 3-3 draw on the road at Bayern Munich. RB Leipzig probably outplayed the reigning Champions League title-holders with 1.24 expected goals (xG) while holding the Bavarians to just 1.04 xG. RB Leipzig made the semifinals of the Champions League last August — this is a very good team. Across all competitions in the Bundesliga and Champions League this season, RB Leipzig has generated 1.81 xG while holding their opponents to just 1.06 xGA. Man United rebounded from their loss to PSG by defeating West Ham (playing without their best striker Mikhail Antonio) by a 3-1 score on Saturday. The Red Devils have looked vulnerable on defense as of late — their last two opponents have generated 5.83 xG. In their five Champions League matches, Man United is allowing 1.50 xG. With Fred getting issued a red card in that match with PSG, he will be suspended for this match. That means that manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will have to play Paul Pogba in the midfield despite his agent calling for him to be traded last week. I don’t like the chemistry of this Red Devils team right now. Pogba seems to be a tinder box — and the team has been inconsistent for the last year under Solskjaer and his questionable tactics. All Man United needs is a draw so they may play this match cautiously. On other hand, a loss might trigger Solskjaer’s firing since that would leave the Red Devils eliminated from the Champions League.

FINAL TAKE: Don’t read too much into the 5-0 score in the first meeting between these two teams. That was a close match at Old Trafford for the first 75 minutes before RB Leipzig got caught by Man United’s counter-attack late in the game as they needed to score to catch-up — and then the floodgates opened up. RB Leipzig gets to avenge that match at home in their Red Bull Arena. An outright win is very possible — with a push from a draw also possible (keeping the bet worth the risk). 25* Champions League Group Match H Match of the Year with RB Leipzig (224358) with the goal-line versus Manchester United (224357). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Borussia Monchengladbach (224228) plus the goal-line versus Inter Milan (224227). THE SITUATION: Borussia Monchengladbach (W2-D2-L0) returns to Champions League action after their 4-0 win over Shakhtar Donetsk last Wednesday. Inter Milan (W0-D2-L2) looks to rebound from their 2-0 loss to Real Madrid in Champions League play last Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE BORUSSIA MONCHENGLADBACH PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Inter Milan is desperate for the three points that a victory would accrue in this match. In last place in the “Group of Death” in the Champions League with just two points, they have a long haul to overcome both Real Madrid and Borussia Monchengladbach with their 7 and 8 points respectively. Nerazzurri would need to win their last two matches and then hope Real Madrid defeats Monchengladbach in their final Group Stage match. That is not an impossible path. But manager Antonio Conte’s team faced urgency last week against Real Madrid — and they laid an egg with that lifeless 2-0 loss against a Los Blancos side missing two of their best players in Sergio Ramos and Karim Benzema. Nerazzurri comes off a 3-0 win over Sassuolo on Saturday in Serie A play — but they still have been a bit of a disappointment in the Italian top-flight where they are 5 points behind AC Milan for first place. This team is not playing with the typical high-level of defense that Conte’s teams displayed in his championship runs with Chelsea and Juventus. Inter Milan has allowed 13 goals in nine Serie A matches and they have surrendered seven goals in their four Champions League contests. They will also be without Arturo Vidal in this match who was issued a red card in the 37th minute of that match last week with Real Madrid. Borussia Monchengladbach would love to settle for a draw in this match since that would likely clinch their qualification for the Round of 16 (if Shaktar Donetsk loses to Real Madrid as a +1.25 goal-line underdog today). Die Fohlen are an offensive juggernaut that has scored 18 goals in their last five matches across all competitions. They come off a 4-1 victory over Schalke 04 on Saturday in the Bundesliga — they have scored eight goals in their last two matches with seven different players finding the back of the net. Manager Marco Rose has his team comfortable playing both an aggressive ball-dominant attack as well as a counter-attacking style (which they will probably employ this afternoon against an aggressive Inter Milan).

FINAL TAKE: Monchengladbach had a 2-1 late lead at Inter Milan in their reverse fixture in Group Stage play on October 21st. With Inter Milan being without Vidal and out of form, don’t be surprised if Die Fohlen pulls the outright upset — but take the +0.5 goal-line for some insurance. 25* Champions League Group B Match of the Year with the Borussia Monchengladbach (224228) plus the goal-line versus Inter Milan (224227). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224229) and Inter Milan (224250). THE SITUATION: Real Madrid (W1-D1-L1) defeated Inter Milan in the reverse fixture in Group B play of the Champions League on November 3rd with their 3-2 victory. Inter Milan (W0-D2-L1) hosts this rematch.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This is a crucial match for Inter Milan as they are currently in last place in their group with two points. Manager Antonio Conte’s side comes off a 4-2 victory at home against Torino in Serie A play on Sunday where they rallied from a 2-0 deficit with four straight goals. Led by Romelu Lukaku as their striker, the Nerazzurri are an offensive juggernaut who are tied for first place in the Italian top-flight league with 20 goals. But this team does not play the typical high-level defense that Conte’s teams enjoyed in championship runs at Juventus and then Chelsea. Inter Milan has surrendered 13 goals in their eight Serie A matches. In their last four matches, Nerazzuri has scored nine goals while allowing eight goals. They have seen nine combined goals scored in their three Champions League games. In their 2-2 draw with Borussia Monchengladbach, they generated a robust 3.51 expected goals. Real Madrid comes off a 1-1 draw at Villarreal on Saturday. Los Blancos have lost a step or two on defense as they have not registered a clean sheet in all competitions in their last eight matches. Manager Zinedine Zidane’s side is dealing with some critical injuries with Karim Benzema, Sergio Ramos, and Luka Jokic all out for this match. But this is Galactico — and while this Real Madrid team is not their best in the last decade, this remains a loaded roster of scoring talent. Additionally, don’t underestimate the negative impact of losing Ramos on their backline on the Los Blancos defense. Real Madrid has scored 16 goals in their last seven matches so they are certainly capable of scoring multiple goals even with their injuries.

FINAL TAKE: Real Madrid has seen at least four combined goals scored in six of their last seven matches. Los Blancos need this game as well — the urgency of the situation should push this to be a higher-scoring game. 25* Champions League Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224229) and Inter Milan (224250). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Istanbul Basakshir (224225) and Manchester United (224226). THE SITUATION: Istanbul Basakshir (W1-D0-L2) returns to Champions League action after upsetting Manchester United at home on November 4th by a 2-1 score. Man United (W2-D0-L1) hosts this reverse fixture rematch in Group H play at home at Old Trafford.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Man United have developed a consistent modus operandi under manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. What do their 5-0 win over RB Leipzig and their 2-1 victory over PSG in the Champions League play have in common this season? Those triumphs were against sides that play aggressive pressing attacks which allows the Red Devils to play cautiously on defense before relying on their attacking talent to shine in the counter-attack. Yet what does Man United’s 6-1 loss to Tottenham, 1-0 loss to Arsenal, and their most recent UCL match against Istanbul Basakshir have in common? Those opponents are counter-attacking sides — and the Red Devils felt compelled to be the more aggressive team on the pitch which failed. Even in their most recent match on Saturday against lowly West Brom, they only won by a 1-0 score despite the Baggies having conceded the most goals in the English Premier League and being at the bottom of the league in expected goals allowed (xGA). Solskjaer’s job is in jeopardy because he cannot find the right lineup that is successful against even mediocre defensive counter-attacking opponents. Anthony Martial and Mason Greenwood are struggling in the attack this season. Look for Solskjaer to insert more reliable defensive players in the midfield in this rematch with the hopes of securing a one or two-goal clean sheet victory. The Red Devils are playing consistently well on the defensive end of the pitch. Since the international break that started on October 20th, Man United is holding their opponents in all competitions to just 0.80 xGA which includes strong sides like PSG and RB Leipzig as well as Chelsea. They host this rematch at Old Trafford where they have held their last three opponents to just 0.40 non-penalty shot expected goals (XG). Istanbul Basakshir comes off a 32- loss to Besiktas in their last match on Saturday. The Owls play more aggressively when competing in their domestic Turkish league. Their two goals against Man United last month were their only goals in their three Champions League matches where they play more conservatively. They will likely park the bus once again in this match so they can take their chances on counter-attacks. They managed only 0.84 xG in their upset win over the Red Devils — and they had only a 0.77 xGA against them which suggests their ultra-conservative defensive approach was successful.

FINAL TAKE: I think Man United should get the clean sheet in this rematch — but I am not confident that they score the two goals necessary to cover the -1.75 goal-line spread. The better play is the Under given the Red Devils’ struggles with counter-attacking sides. 25* UEFA Champions League Group Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Istanbul Basakshir (224225) and Manchester United (224226). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Liverpool (200033) plus the goal-line versus Manchester City (200034). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W5-D1-L1) has won five straight games across all competitions with their 2-1 win over West Ham last Saturday in their most recent English Premier League match. Manchester City (W3-D2-L1) is unbeaten across all competitions after their 1-0 win at Sheffield United last Saturday in their most recent EPL match.

REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Liverpool is dealing with injuries in their back-line with Virgil Van Dijk and Fabinho both out — but the Reds have won five straight games across all competitions since losing Van Dijk to his season-ending leg injury. The reigning EPL champs flexed their muscles o Tuesday in their last match in a dominant 5-0 victory at Atalanta in the Champions League. Atalanta is no slouch — they reached the Quarterfinals of the Champions League last year. Liverpool has added another offensive juggernaut in Diogo Jota from Wolverhampton in the transfer window — he scored a hat trick against Atalanta after scoring a goal coming on a sub against West Ham. The Reds entered this matchweek leading the EPL in expected points (xPTS) — and they have won the expected goals (xG) in six of their seven matches. Liverpool also leads the EPL by averaging 2.46 xG per match — and they have scored at least two goals in nine straight league matches. The defense has been shaky with their injuries as they have allowed 15 goals in their seven matches. But they have been a bit unlucky in allowing those goals as well as their expected goals allowed (xGA) drops to just 8.47 goals on the season. Man City might be favored in this match based on them having much better xG numbers in the 2019-20 season despite Liverpool winning the title. However, the Cityzens are just 11th in the league this season in xPTS . Man City misses Sergio Aguero who has been out all year. Having to use Raheem Sterling as a striker disrupts the cohesion of their attack. In their last six matches, the Cityzens are averaging only 1.58 xG which is far below their 2.67 xG and 2.40 xG in their previous two seasons. They have managed only seven non-penalty kick Big Chances representing scoring opportunities with at least a 35% success rate. That 1.2 Big Chance per match rate is far below the 2.4 Big Chances they averaged in league play last year. They did get Gabriel Jesus back as their second striker on Tuesday in their 3-0 victory over Olympiakos in Champions League play but he is not as dynamic as Aguero.

FINAL TAKE: Liverpool will have revenge on their minds as well after losing by a 4-0 score at Man City’s Etihad Stadium when these two teams last played on July 2nd. That was the first match the Reds played after clinching the 2019-20 EPL championship — so an emotional letdown was predictable. Jurgen Klopp has managed teams to defeat Pep Guardiola eight times in his career which is the most victories against the Man City manager. Liverpool could win this match — and a draw is also a likely result. Strong value play here. 20* EPL Sunday Morning Discounted Deal with Liverpool (200033) plus the goal-line versus Manchester City (200034). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200005) and Southampton (200006). THE SITUATION: Newcastle (W3-D2-L2) looks to build off their 2-1 win over Everton last Sunday in their most recent English Premier League match. Southampton (W4-D1-L2) has won four of their last five matches after they defeated Aston Villa on the road by a 4-3 score last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Newcastle does not have much of a more scoring punch — and manager Steve Bruce’s team often takes a defensive approach. The Magpies have scored only ten goals in their seven matches — and their expected goals (xG) in those contests were only 8.83. Now they go on the road where they are averaging just 0.67 xG per match for their non-penalty kick situations. Newcastle has scored four of their goals via a penalty shot which they can not rely on moving forward. The Magpies have conceded eleven goals this season as well — but their expected goals allowed (xGA) does suggest they have been a bit unfortunate with that number dropping to 10.56 xGA. Southampton has registered a clean sheet in three of their last five matches. The Saints are an underrated defensive club under manager Ralph Hasenhuttl. Southampton has conceded twelve goals this season but their xGA drops to 8.91. They have allowed five goals in their three home matches — but their xGA is just 2.73 in those matches. The Saints will be without their top scorer, Danny Ings, who is out with a knee injury that requires surgery. Ings has scored five goals this season after his breakout campaign over the summer in Project Restart. They still have Che Adams upfront — but he is not a good finisher with most of his goals being from poaching from Ings’ creativity. Southampton may have to rely on James Ward-Prowse out of the midfield.

FINAL TAKE: Look for Hasenhuttl to have his team play this match close to the vest with Ings not available. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* EPL Friday Afternoon Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200005) and Southampton (200006). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Leicester City (200121) and Leeds United (200122). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W4-D0-L2) has won three straight matches across all competition that includes their 1-0 win at Arsenal last Sunday in their most recent English Premier League match. Leeds United (W3-D1-L2) comes off a 3-0 win at Aston Villa in their last match two Fridays ago on October 23rd.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Leicester City defeated AEK Athens on Thursday by a 2-1 score in Europa League action. They also held Arsenal to just 0.96 expected goals in that blank sheet victory. After a dominant 5-2 win at Manchester City on September 27th, the Foxes have played five straight matches across all competitions that have not seen more than three combined goals scored. This team under Brendan Rodgers has become a bit more defensively-oriented. They have allowed only one goal in their last three matches in all competitions. In the EPL, they have allowed only 8 goals but their expected goals allowed (xGA) is just 6.97 — and that 1.20 xGA per match mark is second-best in the league. They have allowed only four non-penalty shot Big Chances this season of scoring opportunities for their opponent with at least a 35% statistical chance of scoring. But the offense has lagged. While the Foxes have scored 13 goals, their expected goals mark (xG) drops to 8.67 which suggests they have been fortunate to see those many goals scored. Leicester City has just a 0.90 xG mark per game in non-penalty kick situations. Leeds United are tied with Leicester City by allowing just four non-penalty kick Big Chances which is the third-best mark in the EPL. They have allowed 12 goals with a 1.68 xGA mark but they have played a difficult schedule which includes Man City and Liverpool. The Whites have not seen more than three combined goals in four straight matches. Their striker, Patrick Bamford, has scored six times already — but that was based on 3.4 xG which suggests he has been pretty fortunate.

FINAL TAKE: After playing two high-scoring matches against Liverpool and Fulham, manager Marcelo Bielsa, has his team playing a bit less aggressive when it comes to when his midfielders rush to join the forwards in their counter-attack. Leeds plays a unique style that has stymied the topflight competition — most of their opponents have decided to play conservatively to counter their tactics. Leicester City will likely embrace this approach and bank on a Jamie Vardy counter-attack which was how they defeated Arsenal with his goal in the 80th minute. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network with Under the Total in the match between Leicester City (200121) and Leeds United (200122). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200146) minus the goal-line versus Crystal Palace (2000145). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W3-D1-L2) looks to get back to their winning ways after settling for a 1-1 draw to Newcastle United last Sunday. Crystal Palace (W3-D1-L2) snapped a three-match winless streak with their 2-1 win at Fulham last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Crystal Palace benefited from facing the promoted Fulham side who may be the worst team in the premiership (pending their result on Monday with West Bromwich). The Eagles had the second-worst expected goals (xG) mark (excluding penalty kicks) along with the fewest shots in the box before that match last week. After managing just 0.14 expected goals three matches ago to Chelsea, they had zero shots in the box outside Wilfried Zaha’s penalty shot two matches ago against Brighton in a contest where they generated a Blutarski 0.0 xG mark in non-penalty kick scoring chances. Crystal Palace is playing very cautiously — but the problem is that they are still giving up plenty of scoring chances. The Eagles are third to last in the league by allowing their opponents to generate 1.80 xG. They have surrendered at least one goal in five straight EPL matches. Against a mediocre Fulham side, they allowed the second-most Big Chances (representing a scoring opportunity with at least a 38% success rate) all week. And while the win over Fulham was their second victory on the road this season after a surprising win at Manchester United last month, Palace was second-to-last in expected points (xPTS) in the EPL last season. Wolverhampton is unbeaten in their last three matches — and they were a few moments away from a three-game winning streak in the EPL before they surrendered a goal to Newcastle in the 89th minute last week. That was the only goal the Wolves have allowed in their last three league matches. Wolverhampton led the EPL with an expected goals allowed (xGA) mark of 1.08. After a slow start this season, the Wolves have stepped up their play on defense. After allowing seven Big Chances along with 29 shots in the box in their first three matches, Wolverhampton has given up only two Big Chances in their last three matches along with just 21 combined shots in the box.

FINAL TAKE: The Wolves struggled to generate scoring opportunities last week against a Newcastle side content to not control possession and simply counter-attack. Wolverhampton perhaps got too content with yet another second-half 1-0 lead after winning their last two EPL matches by 1-0 scores via a second-half goal. The Wolves should find it easier to score against this Palace defense. Let’s remember that Wolverhampton has been a top-seven team in each of the last two seasons in the EPL since its promotion three years ago. 25* EPL Friday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Wolverhampton (200146) minus the goal-line versus Crystal Palace (2000145). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing RB Leipzig (224325) plus the goal-line versus Manchester United (224326) in Group Stage play of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: RB Leipzig defeated Istanbul Basakehir last Tuesday in Champions League action. Manchester United upset Paris Saint-Germain last Tuesday by a 2-1 score in their opening match in the Champions League.

REASONS TO TAKE RB LEIPZIG PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Man United has been maddeningly inconsistent this season. After their surprising victory over a PSG team that lost to Bayern Munich in the Champions League finals over the summer, they then played to a listless 0-0 draw at home to Chelsea in their English Premier League match on Saturday. The deeper analytics suggest they were fortunate to get the win against PSG as they generated only 1.47 expected goals (xG) but allowed 1.59 expected goals (xGA). In their draw with the Blues, they put up a meager 0.78 xG. The Red Devils have some cohesion issues right now as they incorporate some new players they acquired from the transfer window. The enigmatic Paul Pogba is sulking. Manager Gunnar Solskjaer seems over his head at times. The attacking talent is there for this team — but their backline is another matter. Man United is W2-D1-L2 in the EPL so far this season with a bad 3-1 loss to Crystal Palace and a humiliating 6-1 loss to Tottenham on their resume. They are 17th in the league in net expected points differential. They are allowing their opponents to generate 1.98 xG. Furthermore, in their last three matches at home at Old Trafford, they are producing just 1.03 xG. RB Leipzig is not only one of the best sides in the Bundesliga but they have proven themselves on the international stage by reaching the semifinals of the Champions League over the summer where they lost to PSG. They have one of the best managers in the world in Julian Nagelsmann who has ensured his team did not miss a beat this season after losing Timo Werner to a mega-contract signing with Chelsea. Die Roten Bullen followed up their victory last week in the Champions League with a 2-1 win over Hertha Berlin whee they generated 2.70 xG while holding them to just 0.78 xG. RB Leipzig has won five of their last six matches across all competitions with a 1-1 draw with at a quality Bayer Leverkusen side in the Bundesliga representing their only blemish to that run. The Red Bulls sit atop the German top-flight table. They are averaging 2.18 xG in league play so far this season — but it is perhaps their 0.76 xGA that is more impressive given the high-scoring that takes place in the Bundesliga.

FINAL TAKE: Man United tends to play its best against teams that are aggressive in the attack. But generating offense from the counter-attack is also RB Leipzig’s bread-and-butter. Those are the teams that give Solskjaer’s team problems. A draw is likely — but don’t be surprised if the Red Bulls pull the upset with the better manager and far better team cohesion right now. 25* UEFA Champions League Underdog of the Month with RB Leipzig (224325) plus the goal-line versus Manchester United (224326). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Tottenham (200093) and Burnley (200094). THE SITUATION: Tottenham (W2-D2-L1) enters this match coming off a 3-3 draw against West Ham in their last English Premier League match back on October 18th. Burnley (W0-D1-L3) comes off a 0-0 draw at West Bromwich on October 19th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Spurs have established chemistry between their talent and the tactics of manager Jose Mourinho who took over midseason last year. Tottenham lead the EPL with 15 goals (even with one less match under their belts than most of the league) — and they are second in the league by averaging 2.48 expected goals per match. Harry Kane is thriving in his #10 role on the pitch as an attacking midfielder. He has scored five times already this season. But in this position, Kane has assisted on seven goals which is very much out of character for him when he was playing the #9 role higher up the pitch. Son Heung-Min is now playing that attacker role (rather than the winger role that Mourinho relegated him to during the summer’s Project Restart). Yet the Spurs remain shaky on defense. They enjoyed a 3-0 lead against the Hammers before conceding three goals in the second half to settle with the draw. They also blew a lead by conceding a late goal versus Newcastle United. Tottenham brought in a bunch of new talent in the transfer window which has impacted their cohesion — and integrating the aging Gareth Bale into the mix does not help matters. The Spurs have allowed eight goals this season — and they are allowing their opponents to register 1.48 expected goals per game. Burnley was an outstanding defensive team during the summer with a tight backline working together combining with a hot goalkeeper in Nick Pope. It has not been the same to the start of this season as the Clarets have surrendered eight goals in four matches. Burnley has allowed Newcastle score three times against them, and Leicester City score four times against them so far this season — and they conceded three goals to Manchester City in League Cup action last month. The Clarets really miss the injured Ben Mee, who anchors that backline at center back. He will not play in this match. Burnley has only scored three times this season — but they will have to play more aggressively if and when they fall behind against the Hotspurs. They were content to settle for a draw against West Brom to finally get some points this season — but this is a different challenge. The Clarets are usually more potent when playing at home at Turf Moor. Last season, Burnley scored 24 of their 42 goals at home — and 31.08 of their 49.35 expected goals (xG) came on their home pitch. The Clarets averaged 1.64 xG at home last year.

FINAL TAKE: Tottenham leads the EPL in creating Big Chances (scoring chances with at least a 38% probability of scoring given historical averages). Look for the Hotspurs to take the lead, which will compel Burnley to abandon their preferred compact approach. 25* EPL Monday Afternoon Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Tottenham (200093) and Burnley (200094). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between Leicester City (200081) and Arsenal (200082). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W3-D0-L2) has lost two EPL matches in a row after their 1-0 loss at home to Aston Villa last Sunday. Arsenal (W3-D0-L2) looks to rebound from their 1-0 loss at Manchester City last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: I waited for confirmation of the Leicester City lineup that was released an hour before game time after being burned last week when we took the Foxes without realizing that their top scorer, Jamie Vardy, would miss the game with an injury. Those are always the dangers in the first week back in the English Premier League after the international break. Leicester City hoped to have Vardy in their Starting XI today — but while his active on their roster, he is starting on their bench. So, I expect Vardy to play around 30 minutes today. Without Vardy, the Foxes have struggled to score. Not only have they been shutout in two straight matches but they have managed only 0.57 expected goals (xG) per match in those two games. Even with Vardy, Leicester City was struggling to generate scoring chances so far this season — they are averaging just 0.92 xG in non-penalty shot chances. Three of their twelve goals this season have come via a penalty kick — and the league is not calling as many controversial handball penalties like they were last month. 47% of the Foxes expected goals this season have come from penalty kicks. Manager Brendan Rodgers is dealing with a host of injuries besides Vardy — most notably defensive midfielder Wilfred Ndidi and center back Caglar Soyuncu. Rodgers has his team playing more cautiously to compensate for their absence on the pitch. Leicester City is allowing only 1.26 expected goals (xGA) this season. Arsenal is playing pretty solid defense themselves with an xGA of 1.38 this season even after playing two of the most prolific attacks in the league on the road already in Liverpool and Man City. The Gunners added defensive midfielder Thomas Partey in the transfer window from the defensive juggernaut that is Atletico Madrid. Manager Mikel Arteta has his team playing a defensive-first style with their offense coming from counter-attacks. Arsenal has managed only 39 shots on goal in their five matches for a 7.8 average per game which is third-lowest in the EPL. The Gunners are averaging only 1.28 xG per game.

FINAL TAKE: Arsenal’s approach has neutralized the activity and effectiveness of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang who has managed only six shots all season after scoring 22 goals last season. This shapes up to be a low-scoring affair. 25* EPL Sunday Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between Leicester City (200081) and Arsenal (200082). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Real Madrid (201885) and Barcelona (201886). THE SITUATION: Real Madrid (W3-D1-L1) enters this match coming off a 1-0 loss to Cadiz last Saturday in their most recent La Liga match. Barcelona (W2-D1-L1) looks to rebound from a 1-0 loss to Getafe last Saturday in their last La Liga contest.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Both of these Spanish giants limp into the first incarnation of El Clasico for the 2020-21 campaign. Real Madrid was stunned to lose to Cadiz at home last week against a newly promoted side to La Liga. Los Blancos followed that up on Wednesday with a shocking 3-2 loss to Shaktar Donetsk at home in Champions League play. What’s up? Manager Zinedine Zidane’s side is not working very hard — and they appear jaded and a bit lackadaisical after using Project Restart over the summer to win the 2019-20 La Liga campaign. Many elite teams in Europe have struggled with their intensity with the return to league play this fall. Real Madrid is struggling to score. They have scored only six goals in their last five league matches. The ever-disappointing Eden Hazard is dealing with a leg injury that has kept him off the pitch. Benzema and Toni Kroos are out of form. This problem on offense goes deeper than this season. Over their last fourteen matches, Los Blancos have eight single-goal wins with a nil-nil draw and a single-goal defeat. They have only had three victories over that span by two goals. But Zidane’s group is still playing outstanding defense. They allowed just 1.04 expected goals in their winning 2019-20 La Liga campaign — and they are close to that level so far this season with their 1.10 expected goals allowed (xGA) mark. They did not have their rock on their defensive backline for the midweek Champions League match in Sergio Ramos who should be fit to play in this crucial rivalry game. Barcelona has embraced a youth movement under first-year manager Ronaldo Koeman. The Dutch coach brings a defensive-approach to Camp Nou — the Blaugranas have an outstanding 1.03 xGA in league play so far this season. But Barca is generating only 0.90 xG in their last three matches. Lionel Messi is not in form after wanting to exit the team in the offseason. Messi has not scored in his last five matches against Real Madrid. This team was outmuscled by Getafe last weekend in a match where they struggled to find scoring opportunities — they managed a mere 0.92 xG.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a nil-nil draw in the match at Camp Nou last season. Real Madrid won the rematch by a 2-0 score at home later in the season — but that was another low-scoring match. Expect another lower-scoring game. 25* La Liga Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Real Madrid (201885) and Barcelona (201886). Best of luck for us — Frank.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 10/24:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play on my cut list for Saturday morning action is with Real Madrid plus the goal-line versus Barcelona. Real Madrid (W3-D1-L1) enters this match coming off a 1-0 loss to Cadiz last Saturday in their most recent La Liga match. Los Blancos followed that up on Wednesday with a shocking 3-2 loss to Shaktar Donetsk at home in Champions League play. What’s up? Manager Zinedine Zidane’s side is not working very hard — and they appear jaded and a bit lackadaisical after using Project Restart over the summer to won the 2019-20 La Liga campaign. Many elite teams in Europe have struggled with their intensity with the return to league play this fall. Not having their heart-and-soul on the pitch midweek in Sergio Ramos did not help matters — but it will be near impossible to keep him away from this rivalry game. Barcelona has embraced a youth movement under first-year manager Ronaldo Koeman. But Lionel Messi is out-of-form and not in the best of spirits after wanting to leave the franchise in the offseason. The reigning La Liga champs are still playing better than Barca — they have 10.15 expected points in five league matches as compared to the 6.32 expected points Barcelona posts in four league matches. With no fans at Camp Nou, Barca are robbed of most of their home field advantage as well. Take Real Madrid with the goal-line. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports begins Saturday on a RED HOT 13 of 19 (68%) All-Sports run over the last six days! Frank pushed the Leeds United-Aston Villa Under yesterday to continue his 44 of 70 (63%) Soccer run! Now Frank turns back to La Liga where he last CA$HED his 25* La Liga Match of the Year in July on Sevilla — and now he UNLEASHES his 25* La Liga Total of the Month for El Clasico between Real Madrid and Barcelona at 10 AM ET on beIN Sports! DON’T MISS IT!

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Leeds United (200085) and Aston Villa (200086). THE SITUATION: Leeds United (W2-D1-L2) enters this match looking to rebound from their 1-0 loss at home to Wolverhampton on Monday in English Premier League action. Aston Villa (W4-D0-L0) remains the only EPL team with a perfect record with their 1-0 win at Leicester City last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Villans were one of the worst defensive teams in the EPL for much of last season — but manager Dean Smith made a tactical change after the March shutdown of action. When Aston Villa returned to play for Project Restart, they played less aggressively with a fourth defender in their backline. Since that time through last week, the Villans are holding their opponents to just 6.2 shots in the box per game along with only 1.2 Big Chances per game. Those are remarkable improvements when compared to the 12.2 shots per box and 3.1 Big Chances per game they allowed last season before the shutdown. Aston Villa has allowed only two goals this season — and the 3.71 expected goals allowed (xGA) from the deeper analytics is the best defensive mark in the league. The Villans have also scored 12 goals this season — but the metrics suggest they are overachieving since their expected goals (xG) mark drops to 6.79 xG. Seven of Aston Villa’s 12 goals came from their 7-2 blowout win over Liverpool which was very impressive — but the Reds also took their foot off the pedal in that embarrassing loss. In their 1-0 victory over Leicester City, they only managed 0.92 xG. The Villans have also benefited from playing a Fulham team that is perhaps the worst defensive team in the league — three of their goals come from that match. Leeds United held Wolverhampton to just 0.48 xG in their 1-0 loss to begin the week. Manager Marcelo Bielsa has his team play an aggressive style where the entire midfield joins the forwards in the times they go on the counter-attack. But after wild 4-3 matches against Liverpool and Fulham which they split, Bielsa has had his team be more cautious when embracing their counter-attack. In the Whites last three matches, only four combined goals have been scored with Leeds scoring twice and conceding twice. Two of these matches ended in a clean sheet including the Whites 1-0 victory over Sheffield United. With defensive midfielder Kalvin Phillips out for this match, look for Leeds to be even more judicious for when they decide to bring the house in their counter-attacks.

FINAL TAKE: Aston Villa remains a defense-first side under Smith. This match should follow the recent trends for both teams to be a lower-scoring game. 25* EPL Friday Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Leeds United (200085) and Aston Villa (200086). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Liverpool (224241) minus the goal-line versus Ajax (224242) in Group Stage play of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Liverpool begins its Champions League campaign coming off a 2-2 draw against Everton in English Premier League action on Saturday. Ajax comes off a 5-1 win over Heerenveen in Eredivisie action in the Dutch top-flight.

REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Ajax is trying to rekindle the magic they had in the 2018-19 season where they made a run to the Semifinals of the Champions League where they lost to Tottenham. However, a bunch of the core talent from that team has now been poached by the bigger budget teams in Europe. Defenseman Matthijs DeLight signed with Juventus while Hakim Ziyech and Donny Van de Beek recently signed with Chelsea and Manchester United. This is a side that took a big step back last season in Champions League play where they failed to qualify for the last 16 knockout stage. They were W3-D1-L2 in group stage play with their 10 points just one shy of the qualifying second-place slot. But what was more troubling in Champions League play was their -6.5 net goal differential in expected goals where they overachieved on both ends of the pitch. Ajax scored 12 goals despite an expected goals (xG) mark of just 7.8. They also only allowed 6 goals despite their expected goals allowed (xGA) of 14.3. This season, Ajax has won four of their five matches in the Eredivisie national league — but that is not considered one of the top-tier professional leagues in Europe. Liverpool comes off a 2-2 draw against what has now become a loaded Everton team. They won the expected goals battle by a 2.85-1.35 xG mark. That effort erased any concerns I had about their surprising 7-2 loss to Aston Villa in EPL play. A number of the elite teams in the EPL have started slowly. I am writing these efforts off to the unique season where the players did not enjoy a traditional offseason given the summer Project Restart. The Reds are still loaded with talent. They did suffer two big injuries against Everton with both Virgil Van Dijk and Thiago Alcantara out for this match. Thiago was a very nice offseason acquisition who was playing in his first match with his new club on Saturday — so his loss is not a big subtraction. The loss of Van Dijk is more significant as he will likely miss the rest of the season with his torn ACL. Not having Van Dijk will not impact the Liverpool attack as much since it has right-back Andre Robertson who has become their primary attacker who advances from the backline to assist Mo Salah, Sadio Mane, and Roberto Firmino. Van Dijk will be replaced by either Fabinho or Naby Keito who is back in training from his injury. The Reds will be fine. They won the Champions League in 2019 against the Spurs team that defeated Ajax in the Semifinals. They won the EPL last season. And they need to get back to their winning ways after a slow start to their EPL campaign.

FINAL TAKE: Liverpool is unbeaten in their last thirteen matches versus Ajax who have only one win in their last six matches from teams from England. Ajax hosts this match (without fans) in their Johan Cruijff ArenA in Amsterdam — but they have only won once in their last seven opportunities to host an English professional team. Ajax is rebuilding with some nice young talent — but their inexperience against elite sides will do them this afternoon. 25* UEFA Champions League Match of the Month with Liverpool (224241) minus the goal-line versus Ajax (224242). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200053) with the goal-line versus Leeds United (200054). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W2-D0-L2) returns to the pitch after the international break looking to build off their 1-0 win over Fulham on October 4th. Leeds United (W2-D1-L1) comes off a 1-1 draw at home to Manchester City on October 4th.

REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The Wolves have started slow this season with two losses to Man City and West Ham. The early season for this team has been hit-or-miss as they also manage the Europa League campaign with a roster that does not have the same depth as the power franchises in the English Premier League. But this remains the same team that has finished 7th in the EPL in each of the last two seasons since being promoted from the Championship League. They have one of the best managers in Espirito Nuno Santo — and they are acquiring more and more top-end talent to bolster their solid core group of players. There have been some transition issues with the change of roster over the transfer window. The Wolves were the best defensive team in the EPL last season with an expected goal allowed mark of 1.08. Their counter-attacking system matches up quite well with the uber-aggressive counter-attack of this Leeds team from their outstanding manager Marcelo Bielsa. The Whites will send their entire midfield along with their forwards when they initiate their counter-attack. This gives Leeds the best-of-both-worlds approach where they will park the bus for much of the match before becoming hyper-aggressive when they get the opportunity to attack. Their exciting 4-3 loss to Liverpool that opened the season displayed how wild their matches can become. But the Wolves are not the pressing-styled team from which Bielsa’s approach was designed to exploit. Nuno will not deviate from their defensive-shape — and they lead the EPL so far this season in expected goals coming from fast breaks. Leeds is allowing their opponents to post a 2.05 expected goals mark which is third-worst in the league. They are also getting beat by a 0.67 expected goals differential per 90 minutes.

FINAL TAKE: Leeds may be without their captain Liam Cooper who is a doubt with a groin injury. Coming off the international break, I expect the Wolves to start playing better. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with Wolverhampton (200053) with the goal-line versus Leeds United (200054). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:15 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Leicester City (200058) minus the goal-line versus Aston Villa (200057). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W3-D0-L1) returns to action after their 3-0 loss at home to West Ham back on October 4th in their last EPL match. Aston Villa (W3-D0-L0) returns to the pitch after their 7-2 upset victory over Liverpool on October 4th.

REASONS TO TAKE LEICESTER CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Foxes had been riding high winning their first three matches in the new EPL season after a dominant 5-2 statement win at Manchester City. They were perhaps due for an emotional letdown against the Hammers last week. The Foxes also maintained their back-five formation from their win over Man City against West Ham which is puzzling since that is a good counter to a pressing team like the Cityzens but less strategic against a similar counter-attacking team like the Hammers. Look for Leicester City to return to their typical 4-1-4 formation. Even after getting shutout in their last EPL match before the international break, the Foxes still entered this match week tied for the lead in the league with 12 goals. They are dealing with some injuries with the absence of Wilfried Ndidi most concerning to me — but they also upset Man City undermanned including not having Ndidi to patrol their defensive midfield. Leicester City remains a clear top-half of the table team who should compete to qualify for the Champions League after narrowly missing in the summer with their fifth-place final result after Project Restart. Aston Villa has been the surprise of the league with their perfect 3-0 start which was culminated with their shocking victory over the reigning EPL champs. It was just less than three months ago that they avoided relegation on the last day of the EPL campaign. The Villans are playing better as they are unbeaten in their last seven matches. And they have made some nice additions in the transfer window. Yet, let’s keep perspective. Three of their goals against Liverpool came via a deflection. They opened the season with a victory over a rebuilding Sheffield United side who were playing with ten men most of that match — yet Aston Villa managed just a 1.04 expected goals mark in that match. The Villans then defeated a Fulham team that looks likely to be the doormats of the league. Aston Villa has scored 11 goals but their expected goals drop to just 5.91.

FINAL TAKE: The Villans may be in second place entering the week but the expected points metric (xPTS) places them just 10th in the league. This will be just their second road match of the season after defeating Fulham away from home — and they were second to last season in expected goal differential on the road. They are likely to experience a rude awakening against an angry Leicester City side. 25* EPL Sunday Match of the Month with the Leicester City (200058) minus the goal-line versus Aston Villa (200057). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Burnley (200013) with the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200014). THE SITUATION: Burnley (W0-D0-L2) is looking for their first victory of the season after losing last Saturday at home to Southampton by a 1-0 score. Newcastle (W1-D1-L1) pulled out a 1-1 draw at Tottenham last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE BURNLEY WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Newcastle was very fortunate to get the one point from the Spurs last week. A controversial VAR handball call awarded the Magpies a penalty kick in extra time which Callum Wilson converted to earn the draw. Tottenham dominated the expected goals (xG) metric in that match with a 3.49 xG mark as compared to Newcastle’s 1.07 xG. The Magpies had a rough -20 net goal differential for the 2019-20 season — and they were 2nd to last in net xG differential with a -30.54 mark. They opened the season with a 2-0 victory over a struggling West Ham side — but they have played well in their last two games against Brighton and the Spurs. In these last two matches, Newcastle has generated just 0.70 non-penalty kick xG while allowing those two opponents to generate 4.31 non-penalty kick xG. The only shot that the Magpies have managed on target in their last two matches was that Wilson penalty kick in the waning moments of that match with Tottenham. After three games in league play, Newcastle is averaging only 1.06 xG. This team is riddled with injuries right now which is not a good development for mid-table teams that cannot afford to purchase roster depth. The Magpies return home to St. James where they have lost their last three matches in EPL action. Burnley lost a tough one to a likely top-ten team in the Saints last week — but they did hold them to just 0.55 xG. In their opening match against another top-ten (top-five?) side in Leicester City, they lost by a 4-2 score but won the expected goals battle by a 1.43-1.33 xG mark. The Clarets lost only two of their last sixteen EPL matches to close out 2019-20 — and they were W2-D5-L1 against top-ten opponents. For comparison's sake, their net xG differential was just -4.5 last season. Manager Sean Dyche gets the most of his talent at Burnley while playing a very disciplined and compact system. They have only allowed two Big Chances all season despite allowing five goals overall — a few were scored in freakish ways. This team has also been hit hard by injuries — but they do get starting defenseman James Tarkowski to anchor the backline again. The Clarets are also reliable when playing on the road where they are W3-D1-L1 in their last five EPL matches. Burnley generated 26 points away from home last season which was more than Arsenal, Tottenham, and Leicester City accrued.

FINAL TAKE: Burnley won one match and settled for a draw in their other encounter with Newcastle in league play last year. The Clarets need a win to jump up the table — and this is a golden opportunity. Burnley under Dyche is very consistent. A draw is likely the worst-case scenario — but I consider the Clarets the better team and they are playing on the road in an empty stadium. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with Burnley (200013) with the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200014). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between Leicester City (200105) and Manchester City (200106). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W2-D0-L0) remained undefeated so far for the 2020-21 English Premier League campaign with their 4-2 win over Burnley last Sunday. Manchester City (W1-D0-L0) opened their EPL campaign last Monday with their 3-1 victory on the road at Wolverhampton.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Man City was impressive on Monday to score three times against a Wolves team that led the EPL last season with just 27 non-penalty kick Big Chances conceded. Wolverhampton’s compact style makes them one of the most difficult teams to score against yet the Cityzens scored three times in their building at Molineaux. Now Man City turns home where they scored 57 times last season in 19 contests for a 3.0 goals-per-game scoring average. The underlying metrics support their offensive prowess at home as their expected goals (xG) were 2.67 xG per game at home at the Etihad Stadium. Over their last ten games at home, Man City has scored 26 goals. They are dealing with injuries. Both forwards, Gabriel Jesus, and Sergio Aguero are dealing with injuries. When both these forwards are out, manager Pep Guardiola usually places Raheem Sterling in the attacker role where he is comfortable playing (this is his role with the English national team). But what has me sold on the Over is that Guardiola plans to deploy midfielder Kevin DeBruyne higher up the pitch in an attacking position. DeBruyne is an assists-machine who also can score goals with his powerful kicks — it is just that he also helps the defense out when controlling the middle of the field. Phil Foden should also be in the Starting XI given these injuries — and he is a strong offensive player. But playing KDB higher up the pitch further exposes a vulnerable Man City defense. They allowed 37 Big Chances last season with teams being able to effectively counter their aggressive pressing tactics. The Cityzens are also missing some key defensive pieces in defensive midfielder Ilkay Gundogan and defenseman Aymeric LaPorte. Man City made some nice transfers in the offseason to help fortify their defense — but it may be too early to see those players join the pitch. This team is not likely to enjoy a clean sheet. Leicester City has already scored seven goals so far this season in their first two matches. Led by Jamie Vardy and his 23 goals last year, the Foxes had an impressive 1.89 expected goals mark in their nineteen matches on the road in the EPL.

FINAL TAKE: I have concerns about the Leicester City defense this season. They lost defender Ben Chilwell in the transfer market to Chelsea in the offseason. To compound matters, they will be without holding midfielder Wilfried Ndidi for a few months to injury. Ndidi is one of the best defensive midfielders in the world — and his absence last season directly related to the collapse of their hot start in the first half of the season. The Foxes should score on the counter-attack — but Man City should be good for 2-3 goals (at least) playing at home with DeBruyne tasked in an offensive role for this one. 25* EPL Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between Leicester City (200105) and Manchester City (200106). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200041) and Wolverhampton (200042). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W0-D0-L0) makes their 2020-21 English Premier League debut this afternoon after not playing last week given scheduling requirements ensuring a handful of teams a sufficient break after completing 2019-20 competition last month that was delayed due to COVID-19. Wolverhampton (W1-D0-L0) did play last week as they defeated Sheffield United last Monday by a 2-0 score.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Manchester City was a scoring machine last year — they averaged 2.67 expected goals (xG) per match. In their last five EPL contests, they scored 21 combined goals. They also scored at least two goals in their last five EPL matches on the road. But the weakness of this team was they would allow too many Big Chances by their opponents usually when becoming vulnerable by counter-attacks to their constant pressing approach. The Cityzens allowed 37 non-penalty kick Big Chances last season representing scoring opportunities with a better than 35% chance of success. To compound matters for this match, they will be without their best backline defender from last season in Aymeric Laporte who is recovering from a positive COVID-19 test. Man City will also be without Sergio Aguero and midfielder Ilkay Gundagon — but I do not expect these absences to impact their potent offensive attack. Gabriel Jesus is more than capable to take Aguero’s striker role as he did all last summer after the restart — and Raheem Sterling usually steps up his attacking ambitions when Aguero is not on the pitch. And Phil Foden is expected to play of Gundagon who is more active as an offensive player but not quite as skilled defensively. Man City saw at last nine combined goals scored in nine of their last ten league matches. Wolverhampton generated a solid 1.87 xG in their win over a defensive-minded Sheffield United last Monday. But despite the clean sheet, they did display vulnerabilities in their defense with the Blades xG being at 1.03. The Wolves then played midweek last Thursday in a 1-0 loss to Stoke City in Carabou Cup action. While manager Nuno Espirito Santo did not play his best forward, Raul Jimenez, in that match, he did use six of his usual starters, which risks them being a bit fatigued for this match. A tired Wolverhampton team may leave them not quite as stout defensively.

FINAL TAKE: Wolverhampton are a fantastic counter-attacking team — and this is the system that tends to give Man City the most trouble since it is designed to take advantage of the high-pressing powerful attacking teams. When these two teams played at Molineaux last season, the Cityzens raced out to a 2-0 lead before the Wolves responded with three straight goals to pull off the home upset. Look for another higher-scoring match. 10* EPL Monday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200041) and Wolverhampton (200042). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (200037) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200038). THE SITUATION: Chelsea (0-0-0) returns to the pitch after tying to 3rd place in the English Premier League last month with Manchester United. Brighton (0-0-0) staved off relegation in Project Restart this summer with 41 points which were seven points clear but still finished only 15th in the EPL table.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Chelsea made a dynamic splash into the transfer market after the EPL season finally concluded. They had already signed defensive midfielder Hakim Ziyech in the winter period and they fortified their leaky defense with a nice signing of Thiago Silva from Paris-Saint Germain but he is not likely to start yet for this team today. But the signings that drew more attention were the blockbuster deals that brought over Timo Werner and Kai Havertz from the German Bundesliga. These two young offensive dynamos combined to score 52 goals in the Bundesliga last season. Werner will play the attacker position where he thrived for RB Leipzig. Werner has been on my radar since starring for the German national team in the 2017 Confederations Cup — he is the heir apparent to Robert Lewandowski who was the top scorer for Bayern Munich’s Champions League victories club last month. Werner will be a Golden Boot contender this season. But it is Havertz who may still be the more exciting player. At 6’2, he is a matchup nightmare who played in the midfield for Bayer Leverkusen but can also take on the attacker role. These two join a group that was already a high-scoring team in the EPL. The Blues scored 69 goals last year but their expected goals were +9.3 higher at 78.3 xG. Adding two technicians to the mix like Werner and Havertz will help get the actual goals closer to the expected goals mark. Christian Pulisic is dealing with a knock and not likely to play — but Chelsea has an abundance of riches in offensive talent even without him or Willian who they let go sign with Arsenal. The Blues will miss holding midfielder Mateo Kovacic for this contest which will hurt their defensive presence. Defense is an issue — while they scored ten goals in their five road games after the restart, they conceded fourteen goals in those matches. Brighton should score in this one. They only scored 39 goals last year but their xG was +8.42 goals higher at a 47.24 xG clip. They averaged 1.40 xG per match. But they also had an expected goals allowed mark of 60.42 which was +6.42 goals more than the 54 they allowed last year.

FINAL TAKE: The Seagulls allowed 12 goals in their five home matches after the return to action in July. The offensive talent for Chelsea is outstanding — and Werner has already established chemistry with Havertz playing for German national teams over the years. I do worry about the team chemistry for the Blues when it comes to stopping their opponents. The Chelsea issues on defense will likely continue — and their hotshot goalkeeper they just signed will not be on the pitch yet for this one. 25* English Premier League Monday Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (200037) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200038). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Bayern Munich (224301) and Paris Saint-Germain (224302) in the Finals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich reached the Finals of the Champions League on Wednesday with their 3-0 victory over Lyon. Paris Saint-Germain got to the Finals of the European Championship the day before with their 2-1 victory over RB Leipzig. This match is being played on a neutral field in Lisbon, Portugal.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Bayern Munich has now won twenty straight matches across all competitions with their victory over a surging Lyon team out of Ligue 1. Lyon had just come off a 3-1 upset victory over Manchester City on Sunday. They are a defensive-oriented club so scoring three goals against them was impressive. The Bavarians have scored 42 goals in their ten Champions League games which is top-flight competition for their European tournament which only the top teams in Europe qualify to compete in. Bayern Munich has averaged a robust 3.51 expected goals per game in their ten Champions League matches so they are not getting lucky with their high scoring totals. The Bavarians high-line has them play very aggressively which can overwhelm their opposition. That is what happened to Barcelona in the Quarterfinals of this tournament who Bayern Munich blitzed with eight goals in their 8-2 victory last weekend. But that does make the Bavarians vulnerable in the back themselves. Lyon had scoring chances on Wednesday — they generated 1.74 expected goals despite failing to put the ball in the back of the net. Paris Saint-Germain will likely take advantage of these scoring opportunities. They averaged 2.41 expected goals per game in their Champions League contests. They were trailing 1-0 late in their Quarterfinals match against Atalanta — but getting Kylian Mbappe back on the pitch who did not start because of an injury made all the difference for Les Parisians as he jumpstarted the PSG attack with the necessary two late goals to steal that game. Mbappe was back in full force than last Saturday in helping to lead PSG to their easy 3-0 victory over a strong defensive side in RB Leipzig. And all this commentary about PSG has yet to mention Neymar who has the opportunity in this match to make the case that he is the best player in the world. Neymar may be “due” to score a goal after generating 1.68 expected goals in the Quarterfinals and Semifinals without getting the ball in the back of the net.

FINAL TAKE: These are two teams with dynamic offensive attacks. Sometimes these championship games tend to be lower-scoring affairs with both teams playing cautiously — but that is a style that neither team is most comfortable playing. Expect a higher-scoring match. 25* UEFA Champions League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Bayern Munich (224301) and Paris Saint-Germain (224302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Bayern Munich (224301) mini the goal-line versus Paris Saint-Germain (224302) in the Finals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich reached the Finals of the Champions League on Wednesday with their 3-0 victory over Lyon. Paris Saint-Germain got to the Finals of the European Championship the day before with their 2-1 victory over RB Leipzig. This match is being played on a neutral field in Lisbon, Portugal.

REASONS TO TAKE BAYERN MUNICH MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Bayern Munich has now won twenty straight matches across all competitions with their victory over a surging Lyon team out of Ligue 1. Lyon had just come off a 3-1 upset vicory over Manchester City on Sunday. They are defensive-oriented club so scoring three goals against them was impressive. The Bavarians have scored 42 goals in their ten Champions League games which is top-flight competition for their European tournament which only the top teams in Europe qualify to compete in. Bayern Munich has averaged a robust 3.51 expected goals per game in their ten Champions League matches so they are not getting lucky with their high scoring totals. The Bavarians high-line has them play very aggressively which can overwhelm their opposition. That is what happened to Barcelona in the Quarterfinals of this tournament who Bayern Munich blitzed with eight goals in their 8-2 victory last weekend. Paris Saint-Germain took easy care of an RB Leipzig squad that finished well behind Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga — but they struggled to defeat Atalanta in the Quarterfinal as they needed to score two late goals to steal that 2-1 victory. I worry about the quality of opponents that PSG faced to reach the Finals. They defeated Real Madrid in the Group Stage — but that was a team that did not find themselves until after the restart this summer. RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund are good teams — and Atalanta had a surprising season in Serie A. But none of PSG’s opponents won their European professional league. Ligue 1 is not considered as strong as the English Premier League, the Bundesliga, La Liga, or even the Italian Serie A.

FINAL TAKE: Ultimately, PSG’s lack of experience in big games will hurt them here. And it does not help that part of Neymar’s reputation is failing to produce in big games. This match could be the coming out party for Bayern Munich stars like Alphonso Davies and Joshua Kimmich. 10* UEFA Champions League Bayern Munich-PSG Special with Bayern Munich (224301) minus the goal-line versus Paris Saint-Germain (224302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Bayern Munich (224229) minus the goal-line versus Barcelona (224230) in the Quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich reached the Quarterfinals of the Champions League knockout stage last Friday with their 4-1 victory over Chelsea which clinched their dominant 7-1 aggregate score over the Blues. Barcelona joined them in the Quarterfinals last Friday with their 3-1 win over Napoli which led them to a 4-2 aggregate score. This match will be played on a neutral field at Estadio Jose Alvalade in Lisbon, Portugal.

REASONS TO TAKE BAYERN MUNICH MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Despite the final score, Barcelona was not impressive in their victory over Lyon. They managed only 1.06 expected goals (xG) with their non-penalty kicks xG dropping to just a 0.31 mark. They managed only six non-penalty shots in the game with zero Big Chances representing a scoring opportunity with at least a success rate of 35% or better. Frankly, I kept the jury out for this Barca team waiting to see what lineup manager Quique Setien would deploy with the La Liga season completed. The Blaugranas could put out a very intriguing XI if Setien were to go young and lean on rising stars like Riqui Puig and Ansu Fati to play alongside Lionel Messi who is still fantastic. Instead, Setien stayed committed to his aging veterans who have lost a step or two (or three). Puig did not even play last week! Setien’s lineup, tactics, and even his demeanor were puzzling last week — he may be resigned to his impending resignation after taking over for Ernesto Valverde in January. This roster needs an overhaul — and it starts with their defense with a lack of quality central defenders. Gerard Pique is far too slow at this point in his career. Barcelona had a troubling 1.41 expected goals allowed (xGA) mark entering last week’s match. This team has become much too dependent on Messi who accounts for 34% of the team’s xG. Bayern Munich is a machine right now with eighteen straight victories across all competitions along with being unbeaten in their last twenty-seven games with twenty-six victories. Against the elite Champions League competition, they generated 3.27 xG while holding these opponents to just 0.72 xG.

FINAL TAKE: Bayern Munich is one of five teams in the top-five European professional leagues to generated a +1.0xG per 90 minutes or better ratio. The four other teams to pull that feat were Manchester City, Paris Saint-Germain, RB Leipzig, and Atalanta with all four of those teams in the Champions League Quarterfinals. Barcelona had just a +0.80 xG per 90 minutes this season for comparisons' sake. The Blaugranas have beaten Bayern Munich only twice in their last ten matches against them with six losses including a 7-0 drubbing in 2013 after Barca endured a similar turbulent season where they were clearly on the decline. Sounds familiar. 25* UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals *A-List* Special with Bayern Munich (224229) minus the goal-line versus Barcelona (224230). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Bayern Munich (224229) and Barcelona (224230) in the Quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich reached the Quarterfinals of the Champions League knockout stage last Friday with their 4-1 victory over Chelsea which clinched their dominant 7-1 aggregate score over the Blues. Barcelona joined them in the Quarterfinals last Friday with their 3-1 win over Napoli which led them to a 4-2 aggregate score. This match will be played on a neutral field at Estadio Jose Alvalade in Lisbon, Portugal.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL:  Bayern Munich is a machine right now with eighteen straight victories across all competitions along with being unbeaten in their last twenty-seven games with twenty-six victories. Against the elite Champions League competition, they generated 3.27 expected goals (xG). Since the return to play, the Bavarians have scored 37 goals in their twelve matches. Over the last three competitive non-friendly matches, they have scored 12 times. While Bayern Munich has ten players on their roster that have scored at least four goals this season, they are led by striker Robert Lewandowski who has averaged an incredible 1.4 expected goals per 90 minutes of play. And while the appointment of manager Hansi Flick paid dividends with improved play on defense given his tactical and lineup changes, teams can score on the Bavarians. Chelsea was undermanned last week without Christian Pulisic and Willian in their attack. Bayer Leverkusen scored twice against them in both their Bundesliga fixtures which resulted in 4-2 victories for the Bavarians. Tottenham and Borussia Monchengladbach also scored against this team since the appointment of Setien. There is a very good chance that this Barcelona team led by Lionel Messi will exploit the aggressive high-press that Flick likes to deploy. Despite the final score, Barca was not impressive in their victory over Lyon. They managed only 1.06 expected goals (xG) with their non-penalty kicks xG dropping to just a 0.31 mark. They were playing without the suspended Arturo Vidal and Sergio Busquets so getting them back on the pitch will help the Barcelona attack. And if Barca falls behind early in this match, look for manager Quique Setien to turn to his young rising stars in Riqui Puig and Ansu Fati who possess dynamic offensive skills. This roster needs an overhaul — and it starts with their defense with a lack of quality central defenders. Gerard Pique is far too slow at this point in his career. Barcelona had a troubling 1.41 expected goals allowed (xGA) mark entering last week’s match. This team has become much too dependent on Messi who accounts for 34% of the team’s xG.

FINAL TAKE: With both these teams deploying open and aggressive styles, expect a higher scoring match. 10* Champions League Bayern Munich-Barcelona O/U Special with Over the Total in the match between Bayern Munich (224229) and Barcelona (224230). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Atletico Madrid (224221) minus the goal-line versus RB Leipzig (224222) in the Quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Atletico Madrid reached the Quarterfinals of the Champions League knockout stage when they defeated Liverpool on the road by a 3-2 score on March 11th in the second leg of their Round of 16 showdown. RB Leipzig advanced to the Quarterfinals of this event the day before on March 10th when they defeated Tottenham by a 3-0 score. This match will be played on a neutral field at Estadio Jose Alvalade in Lisbon, Portugal.

REASONS TO TAKE ATLETICO MADRID MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Handicapping the German Bundesliga closely this summer convinced me that RB Leipzig is a bit of a paper tiger. The Red Bulls load up against the bottom teams in the league — but they only registered one victory against the top four teams in the standings consisting go Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen, and Borussia Monchengladbach. While manager Julian Nagelsmann has his team play tight defense, RB Leipzig can struggle to score goals. They have scored only two goals in their last three contests — and they have managed just eight goals in their last six contests across all competitions. They scored just once in their last match in a friendly against Wolfsburg that ended in a 1-1 draw. To compound matters, they will be playing this match without their best offensive talent in Timo Werner as he signed a big contract with Chelsea and decided to begin training with his new team. The Red Bulls will miss his 32 goals across all competitions this year. Rust may be a factor as well with the Bundesliga concluding on June 27th — RB Leipzig has only had that one friendly two weeks ago since that time. The cohesion of the Red Bulls’ defense was already starting to wane towards the end of the season as they have not had a clean sheet in their last four contests. This team settled for too many draws during the league play. They only lost four matches in the Bundesliga which was the same as league champs Bayern Munich — but their 12 draws illuminated their inability to put away lesser teams in the league. The loss of Werner does not inspire confidence that this team will discover a clutch gene. Atletico Madrid proved their mettle by upsetting the reigning Champions League titleholders in Liverpool in the Round of 16. Los Colchoneros play dogged defense that stifles the will of their opponents. They held their La Liga opponents to just 0.97 expected goals (xG) — and their Champions League opponents this year managed just 1.11 xG. The victory over Liverpool jumpstarted the confidence of this team as they returned from the stoppage of play by going unbeaten in their eleven La Liga matches with seven victories while outscoring those opponents by a 20 to 6 margin. Atletico Madrid enters this match undefeated in their last eighteen matches. A tactical move also made this team much better over that span as manager Diego Simeone’s decision to move Marcos Llorente up top to serve as a second-striker ignited the offensive attack of the Red and Whites. This is a very confident team.

FINAL TAKE: RB Leipzig may be happy to be here at this point in their campaign with it being the young organization’s first appearance in the Champions League Quarterfinals. Atletico Madrid has been in the Quarterfinals of this event in five of the last seven years while reaching the Semifinals in 2016 and 2017. Simeone is one of the best managers in the world — and he is eyeing his first Finals opportunity with this team. In what should be a defensive struggle, look for the Atletico Madrid counterattack to create too many scoring chances for RB Leipzig to keep up. 25* UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals Match of the Year with the Atletico Madrid (224221) minus the goal-line versus RB Leipzig (224222). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Paris Saint-Germain (224217) and Atalanta (224218) in the Quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Paris Saint-Germain reached the Quarterfinals of the Championship League back in March when they defeated Borussia Dortmund by a 2-0 score on March 11th to defeat them by an aggregate 3-2 score. Atalanta qualified for the Quarterfinals of this tournament the day before on March 10th when they defeated Valencia by a 4-3 score to win that Round of 16 contest by an aggregate 8-4 score. Given the pandemic, the two-leg knockout stage format where both teams host a match has been replaced with a single game elimination process played on a neutral field in Lisbon, Portugal. This match will take place at Estadio da Luz which is the home stadium for Benfica.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Paris Saint-Germain is an offensive juggernaut. Their 3.33 expected goals (xG) average is the highest mark of the top-five professional leagues in Europe. They are led by Neymar who has scored 12 goals in PSG’s last sixteen Knockout Stage matches. Les Parisiens are undermanned in this match with Angel Di Maria suspended for this contest while Kylian Mbappe and Marco Verrati dealing with injuries. Mbappe suffered his knock in the team’s last match which was a 1-0 victory in a friendly over Sochaux on August 5th. Rust is a factor for this team since they have played only two matches in five months after Ligue 1 canceled the remainder of their season in March when COVID-19 hit. This lack of cohesion may impact the qualify of their defense more than their offensive attack. In the Champions League this season, PSG generated 2.23 xG in those matches. However, they also saw their expected goals allowed (xGA) rise to 1.18 which was almost 33% higher than the 0.81 xGA they enjoyed in Ligue 1 play. PSG has scored at least one goal in thirty-two straight Champions League matches going back to the 2015-16 campaign. Atalanta finished in 3rd place in Serie A just 5 points behind Juventus who won the top-flight Italian professional league. La Dea did have the best season in Serie A according to the expected goals as they topped the league in expected points (xPTS). Atalanta’s strength lies in their offensive attack as the led Serie A by generating 2.31 xG per match. La Dea scored 98 goals in league play this season which was the third-highest mark in the top-five European professional leagues. But this team is vulnerable on defense — they have allowed the most goals in the Champions League of the eight teams still competing for the championship. Atalanta’s Champions League opponents this season has generated an alarming 2.01 xG. To compound matters, La Dea will be without their top keeper in Pierluigi Gollini due to injury which means they will be relying on Marco Sportello who made only five starts in league play this season. Atalanta will also be without their top scorer, Josip Illicic, who did not rejoin the team this summer — but manager Gian Piero Gasperini has plenty of offensive talent at his disposal. This team was W21-D3-L1 in their twenty-five road matches across all competitions this season where they scored at least two goals in eighteen of those matches.

FINAL TAKE: Styles make fights — and both of these teams prefer to play in a proactive and open style. These are two teams that rely on their offensive attacks. Expect plenty of goals. 25* UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Paris Saint-Germain (224217) and Atalanta (224218). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (224209) and Bayern Munich (224210) in the second-leg of their Round of 16 UEFA Champions League match. THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich won the first-leg of this duel at Stamford Bridge by a 3-0 score back on February 25th. Chelsea now has to travel to Allianz Arena in Munich needing to both upset the Bavarians while winning by at least three goals to win advance to the Quarterfinals next week.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: A theoretical 3-0 Chelsea victory would force penalty kicks with the aggregate score being 3-3 with both teams scoring three goals on the road (the first tiebreaker). But it is highly unlikely that the Blues will shutout this explosive Bayern Munich side. The Bavarians averaged 2.80 expected goals per game in Bundesliga and DFB-Pokal domestic contests this season which is the second-highest mark of any team playing in one of the top-five European Leagues (PSG leads in that metric). Bayern Munich has scored at least four goals in five of their last ten competitive matches (non-friendlies). Manager Hansi Flick has indicated that his top players will take part in this match despite the big lead from the first leg since he needs to build up their fitness for their likely Quarterfinals match next week. Defense has been a big concern for this Chelsea team all season — they had an expected goals allowed (xGA) mark of 1.23 xGA this season. The Blues are also missing some of their key defensive pieces for this contest as well. Not only did Chelsea blow a 1-0 lead against Arsenal last Sunday in their 2-1 loss to Arsenal in the English FA Cup Final but they also suffered a number of costly injuries. Defenseman Cesar Azpilicueta was injured in that match and will not be able to play this afternoon. N’bolo Kante did not play last week with an injury that may keep him out in this one. Even worse, defenseman Marco Alonso and defensive midfielder Jorginho are suspended for this game given yellow cards. Chelsea is also missing Christian Pulisic and Pedro who got injured last week but manager Frank Lampard still has the services of forward Olivier Giroud. With the goalie issues Lampard has with both Kepa Arrizabalaga and Willy Caballero both underperforming when compared to typical replacement level keepers. The Blues will need to play aggressively to have much of a chance.

FINAL TAKE: Both teams are likely to score in this contest with Chelsea only being blanked once in their last fifteen matches and Bayern Munich having played seventeen straight competitive matches where they scored at least one goal. The Bavarians have seen at least four combined goals in six of their last ten competitive matches as well. The Blues are not a team that will park the bus. Even when getting shutout in the first leg of this showdown, they generated 1.16 xG while allowing Bayern Munich to register 3.12 xG. Expect a higher-scoring match. 25* UEFA Champions League Round of 16 Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (224209) and Bayern Munich (224210). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Everton (200018) with the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200017). THE SITUATION: Everton (W13-D10-L14) looks to end their season on a high note after a 1-0 victory at Sheffield United on Monday. Bournemouth (W8-D7-L22) has lost nineteen of their last twenty-six matches after their 2-0 loss at home to Southampton last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Bournemouth is playing for the EPL lives in this match as they begin the day in 19th place in the table. They are three points behind both Aston Villa and Watford — so the Cherries need a victory while seeing one of those teams lose to then stave off relegation. The problem for manager Eddie Howe’s team is that they have been in this desperation situation since Project Restart yet they are just W1-D1-L6 in those contests while being outscored by a 17 to 8 margin. Bournemouth has lost nine of their last twelve matches where they have been outscored by a 26 to 12 margin — and they have lost twelve of their last seventeen contests. The Cherries have been even worse on the road where they have lost twelve of their last thirteen contests. A porous defense is the biggest problem for this team that plays aggressively but lacks a “Plan B”. They have surrendered 40 goals in their last twenty league matches. They have also given up 34 goals in their seventeen road matches in the EPL — and they have an expected goal allowed mark of 1.92 (xGA). To compound matters, Howe is dealing with a depleted defensive backline with Adam Smith and Nathan Ake dealing with injuries. Howe hopes both can play — Ake is their best defender but may not be able to recover from the groin injury that has kept him out the last two matches. The Cherries have lost fifteen of their twenty-five matches against non-Big Six sides this season — and they have lost nine of their twelve road games against non-Big Six teams while only scoring eight goals in those games and conceding 21 times. Everton played one of their best matches since the restart in spoiling Sheffield United’s Europa League ambitions with that victory on the road. The Toffees have conceded only seven goals in their eight matches since the restart. Motivation is a question with this team — but manager Carlo Ancelotti read this team the riot act a week ago after a bad 3-0 loss to Wolverhampton. Everton has not lost since. Not only does Ancelotti want to continue to see a consistent effort but he is building for next year where he expects this team to finish in the Top-Six. Ancelotti is a serious manager with three UEFA Champions League titles with Inter Milan and Real Madrid. Since he took over in December, the Toffees have lost only five times — and these were all to quality opponents in Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Tottenham, and the Wolves. Everton has the 7th best record in the league since Ancelotti took over. This team has also been tough to beat at home in Goodison Park where they have lost only once since September. The Toffees are unbeaten in their nine home matches under Ancelotti with five victories. And they are W7-D3-L2 in their twelve home matches against non-Big Six sides this season. Everton is also averaging a solid 1.62 expected goals (xG) at home this season.

FINAL TAKE: Everton will be playing with revenge on their minds after suffering a 3-1 loss at Bournemouth in the reverse fixture back on September 15th. The Toffees have won all of their four opportunities to host the Cherries in their history while scoring 12 goals in those contests. Bournemouth must win this match — and that means they will be playing very aggressively. Look for Everton to score in the counterattack against a vulnerable and depleted Cherries’ backline. Dominic Calvert-Lewin may even get into the scoring act as he has shown signs of life after a dismal display since the restart. 25* English Premier League Match of the Year with the Everton (200018) with the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200017). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (200169) and Manchester United (200170). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W10-D7-L19) has won two straight matches after their 3-1 win at home against Watford last Friday. Manchester United (W17-D11-L8) looks to bounce back from their 3-1 loss to Chelsea on Sunday in the Semifinals of the English FA Cup.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Man United saw their nineteen- game unbeaten streak across all competitions snapped in that loss to the Blues but they remain unbeaten in their last twelve matches in EPL play. They have scored 27 goals in those last twelve league games — and they have scored 19 goals in their seven EPL matches in Project Restart. With the return of the injured Paul Pogba and Marcus Rashford this summer to a team that signed star midfielder Bruno Fernandes in the winter transfer period, the Red Devils are now loaded with offensive talent. Their defensive play has been a bit overrated despot thirteen clean sheets in their last twenty matches across all competitions. Since the return to play, they have only played two opponents in Tottenham and Sheffield United with top-ten scoring offenses in their seven EPL matches. And while they have surrendered just six goals in their twelve league games since acquiring Fernandes, the expected goals allowed (xGA) rise to 12.45 over that span. Manchester United should generate plenty of scoring chances in this match — they are averaging more than three big chances representing opportunities with at least a 35% success rate since the return. West Ham has scored seven goals in their last two matches with manager David Moyes pushing the right buttons to get his offense going. Moyes moved midfielder Michail Antonio to the striker role where he has thrived with seven goals in Project Restart. He has benefited with the addition of winger Jarrod Bowen who was signed in the winter transfer period — Bowen has an assist in four of his last five games. The Hammers have scored at least two goals in four of their last five games while scoring twelve goals over that span. But defense remains an issue for this team as they have allowed six goals in those last five games — and they have surrendered ten goals in their seven EPL matches since the restart. West Ham has just one clean sheet in their last sixteen league matches going back to January 1st. They go back on the road where they are allowing 2.08 xGA.

FINAL TAKE: West Ham won the first meeting between these two teams by a 2-0 score back on September 22nd. But the Hammers have allowed 23 goals this season in their eleven matches against Big Six sides. West Ham still would like a result to clinch avoiding relegation this season — and Man United is in a dogfight for one of the top four spots in the table to qualify for next season’s UEFA Champions League. Expect a higher scoring match. 10* EPL Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the match between the West Ham United (200169) and Manchester United (200170). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200146) minus the goal-line versus Crystal Palace (200145). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W14-D14-L8) enters this match looking to build off their 1-1 draw at Burnley last Wednesday. Crystal Palace (W11-D9-L16) has lost six straight matches after their 2-0 loss to Manchester United on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Wolves have rebounded from losing two straight matches to begin the month by defeating Everton by a 3-0 score before earning the point with the draw on the road at a feisty Burnley side. Manager Nuno Espirito Santo has wisely begun to rotate his starting XI given the busy break after his regular starters looked exhausted during this busy fixture schedule. The five days off between matches will greatly benefit this team. Wolverhampton is W4-D1-LW in their seven matches since the return while limiting their opponents to just four combined goals scored. They have limited their opponents to just 0.64 expected goals (xG) per game in Project Restart which is the stingiest mark in the league. For the season, the Wolves have an expected goals allowed (xGA) mark of 1.15 which is the best in the EPL. They have allowed only 26 non-penalty kick Big Chances representing scoring chances with at least a 35% success rate. They return home to Molineaux where they generated a robust 3.19 xG in their last home match in that win against Everton. Over their last six home games, Wolverhampton is generating 1.64 xG while limiting their opponents to just 0.47 xGA. They are also undefeated in their twelve home matches against non-Big Six opponents at home with six wins and a decisive 17-5 goal differential. Crystal Palace began the restart with an encouraging 2-0 win at Bournemouth which extended their clean sheet streak to four matches. But, in hindsight, that game said more about the sorry state of a Cherries team that is in serious danger of being relegated. The Eagles have since lost six straight matches where they have surrendered 15 goals while scoring just two times. The deeper metrics confirm those troubling numbers as Crystal Palace has generated just 0.75 xG per match while surrendering a whopping 2.08 xGA in those contests. The Eagles have been the second-worst team (to Norwich City) in the return to action — they have managed only four Big Chances on offense while leading the EPL in most Big Chances surrendered. They go back on the road where -0.85 expected goal differential (xGD) is worst in the EPL. They have failed to score in their last three road games while allowing nine goals.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a 1-1 draw at Selhurst Park back on September 22nd. Crystal Palace has nothing to play for at this point of the season with them mathematically clear of relegation in the middle of the table but far removed from any chances to qualify for the Europa League in the fall. The Wolves need the three points that come with a victory to help their Europa ambitions. With Tottenham in the English FA Cup Finals, they may vulture one of the two Europa qualify spots from EPL teams leaving just the 5th place team in the table gaining entry as the second team from the league. A victory for Wolverhampton lifts them one point above the surging Spurs in the EPL table. 10* English Premier League Monday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Wolverhampton (200146) minus the goal-line versus Crystal Palace (200145). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Sevilla (201810) minus the goal-line versus Valencia (201809). THE SITUATION: Sevilla (W18-D13-L6) is unbeaten in their last fourteen matches after settling for a nil-nil draw on the road at Real Sociedad on Thursday. Valencia (W14-D11-L12) has won two of their last three matches with their 1-0 victory over Espanyol on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE SEVILLA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Sevilla’s strong play over the second half of the season has been validated by the deeper metrics as they have generated 1.61 expected goals (xG) over their last fourteen matches with just 1.13 expected goals allowed (xGA) over that span for a strong +0.48 expected goal differential (xGD). They had won their previous four matches before settling for the draw with a Real Sociedad still fighting to ensure they qualify for next fall’s Europa League. Los Nervionenses still have things to play for this season. While being cemented in at least 4th place in the La Liga table ensures they qualify for next year’s Champions League, passing Atletico Madrid for 3rd place not only would be a feather in their cap but also affords them to bypass the initial qualifying match hurdle that 4th place teams must take. Sevilla needs a win with a loss in Atletico Madrid’s match with Real Sociedad (which is a possibility) to seize 3rd place. Los Nervionenses also have the second leg of their Round of 16 Europa League showdown with Roma coming up next month so manager Julen Lopetegui will want to keep his group in form. Sevilla have won five of their ten league matches in the return while only surrendering five goals over that span. While the Andalusians were held scoreless on Thursday, they had scored in 27 of their previous 28 La Liga matches. They have also registered a clean sheet in ten of their last twelve league games. They return home to Estadio Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan where they are unbeaten in their last ten matches while winning their last two contests. They have allowed just 14 goals in their 18 home games in league play with these opponents generating a meager 0.89 xG. Sevilla also tends to feast on the lesser teams in La Liga when playing at home: they are W9-D5-L1 in their last fifteen home games against teams below them on the table while scoring 24 goals and conceding just 12 times. Valencia has won two of their last three matches since manager Albert Celades was sacked after losing control of the locker room since the return to play. Voro returned as a caretaker for this team for the third time in his managerial career to offer some renewed stability (despite him being the team’s third manager this season — but this has been an organization rife with drama with players bickering with each other and the owner’s daughter taking to social media to chastise their fans. Defections have not helped matters for this team that competed in the Champions League earlier in the season. Top center back Ezequiel Garay left the team with an expiring contract this summer and forward Rodrigo is out the season with an injury. Knocks also have Voro resorting to a third-stringer at left-back in his starting XI today. Valencia defeated Espanyol on Thursday despite losing the expected goals battle by a 1.53 to 1.20 mark to the already relegated last-place team in the league. Los Che has now lost the xG duel in eight of their last ten matches since the return which suggests they have been fortunate to of W3-D2-L5 over that span. They go back on the road where they have lost eleven times this season while losing eight of their last ten matches while going winless over the span. Valencia has allowed their opponents to generate 17.72 xG in those last ten road games while producing just 4.96 xG in those matches. For the season, Los Che averages 0.95 xG along with a 1.90 xGA on the road in La Liga with that -0.95 xGD mark being bottom-five in the league. Valencia has been shutout in four of their last five games on the road — and they have scored just five times in their last seven matches overall.

FINAL TAKE: Sevilla did rest their key starters in the first half at Real Sociedad on Thursday which helps explain why they did not score. Those rested starters should be on the pitch for this final league match. Valencia is still technically alive to qualify for the Europa League but they need a victory and then plenty of help to pull off that feat. Frankly avoiding rebellion and complete implosion was the immediate goal for Voro when he took over. Getting a result on the road against a quality and professional team like Sevilla is quite another. 25* La Liga Match of the Year with Sevilla (201810) minus the goal-line versus Valencia (201809). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Atletico Madrid (201834) minus the goal-line versus Real Sociedad (201833). THE SITUATION: Atletico Madrid (W18-D15-L4) is unbeaten in their last seventeen matches across all competitions after they defeated Getafe on the road on Thursday by a 2-0 score. Real Sociedad (W16-D7-L14) enters this final match of the 2019-20 La Liga season with a nil-nil draw at home to Sevilla.

REASONS TO TAKE ATLETICO MADRID MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Atletico has not lost in their last fifteen matches in La Liga while holding their opponents to just a 1.01 expected goals (xG) mark in their ten matches since the return to play. Atletico Madrid has won seven of their ten matches in Project Restart while scoring 19 times and holding their opponents to just five goals. Atleti is an outstanding defensive team under manager Diego Simeone. They have two straight clean sheets which make six shutouts in their ten matches since the return. They also have eight clean sheets in their last twelve contests. But what has made this team dangerous is Simeone’s move to place midfielder Marcos Llorente up front as a second attacker alongside Alvaro Morata. That surprise move helped Atletico Madrid upset Liverpool in the Round of Sixteen in the European Champions League. Atleti is 3rd in La Liga by averaging 1.53 expected goals (xG) since the return. This is a very consistent team that has won the xG battle in eight of their last ten matches along within 28 of their 37 league games this season. They host this match where they have scored in thirteen straight contests and where they have lost only once in their last twenty-four league games. In their last twelve home games across all competitions, Atletico Madrid is W10-D2-L0 while scoring 20 goals and conceding just five times. Real Sociedad was riding high in the top-four of the La Liga table before the COVID stoppage — and this young team did not return in shape physically or mentally to take on the renewed challenge. They have won only twice in their ten matches while getting outscored by a 14 to 11 margin. They are posting a low 1.16 xG in those contests. Now they go back on the road where they have a -6.14 expected goal differential which is in the bottom half of the league. They are just W1-D1-L2 in their last four road games while getting outscored by a 6 to 4 margin. They have also failed to post a clean sheet in their last six road games. To compound matters, manager Imanol Alguacial is dealing with a host of injuries in this final game of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Real Sociedad is still in the running to qualify for the Europa League in the fall — but they have a few avenues to qualify even if they lose this match including the opportunity to gain automatic entry with a victory in the Copa Del Rey final next month. Atletico Madrid is in 3rd place and already qualified for the Champions League — but they want to avoid a loss which could see them finish in 4th place behind Sevilla which would then require them to play a qualifying match to enter next year’s Champions League. Besides Simeone wants to keep his team in form for their date with RB Leipzig in the Quarterfinals of the Champions League next month. And he can motivate his team wit the memory of them losing the reverse fixture at Real Sociedad back on September 14th by a 2-0 score. 10* La Liga Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Atletico Madrid (201834) minus the goal-line versus Real Sociedad (201833). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (200405) and Manchester United (2000406). THE SITUATION: The Football Association Challenge Cup is the oldest national soccer competition in the world consisting of teams from England’s professional leagues. Chelsea reached the Semifinals of the FA Cup on June 28th with their 1-0 win at Leicester City. Manchester United earned their right to play in the FA Cup Semifinals the day before when they defeated Norwich City on the road by a 2-1 score. This match will be played on a neutral field at Wembley Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Chelsea comes off a 1-0 win at home over Norwich City on Tuesday. While the Blues scored just one goal against the already-relegated Canaries (who were parking the bus in that match — they had only two shots in the entire match), the deeper metrics suggest that they were unfortunate with their expected goals mark of 2.77 xG. With the return to health of Christian Pulisic, Chelsea has been transformed into a potent scoring team that is energized when the 20-year old American is on the pitch. He has formed a nice combination with fellow midfielder Willian along with their veteran forward Olivier Giroud. The Blues have scored 13 goals in their seven EPL matches in Project Restart — and they are averaging a robust 2.34 expected goals (xG) per game. Lampard deploys a high-press on the opponent’s side of the field to generate more scoring opportunities. But one of the reasons why the rookie manager deploys this tactic is to compensate for the lack of defensive talent in their backline. Chelsea has allowed 11 goals in their seven league matches since the return. They have looked very shaky against less than offensive juggernauts as of late. Sheffield United generated 2.56 expected goals in a 3-0 loss to the Blades in their last road game. West Ham produced a 2.6 xG as well with meager offensive teams in Crystal Palace and Aston Villa also enjoyed 1.3 and 1.2 xG marks since the restart. To compound matters, Lampard will not have the services of one of the best holding midfielders in the world in N’Golo Kante who is on the shelf with a hamstring injury. Their Blues defense has been good at home with opponents generating just a 0.83 xG at Stamford Bridge — but in that mark rises to a 1.59 xGA clip in their eighteen EPL matches on the road. And since Project Restart, Chelsea has an ugly 2.05 xGA when playing on the road. Additionally, the Blues have seen 27 combined goals scored in their nine league matches against Big Six sides. Manchester United has been a scoring machine since the return to play as they have found the back of the net 21 times in their eight matches across all competitions. With Marcus Rashford and Paul Pogba healthy again and joining the winter transfer signing of Bruno Fernandes, the Red Devils are suddenly loaded with offensive talent. And while Man United has allowed only six goals in the twelve league matches they have played since Fernandes joined the team, their expected goals allowed (xGA) during that span double to a 12.45 mark. The Red Devils’ defense is not quite as good as the numbers indicate (thirteen clean sheets in their last nineteen games across all competitions). The only two teams they have played since the restart ranked in the top-ten in the EPL in scoring have been Tottenham and Southampton and both have scored against them. They are also undermanned on defense for this match with Luke Shaw and Brandon Williams both dealing with injuries.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played three times this season with both EPL matches along with an English League Cup match in October — and Man United scored eight goals in those three matches. While I do not expect the Blues’ defense to play much better in this fourth contest, they should score more goals with Pulisic integrated into the offense. In their only match in 2020 back in February, Chelsea peppered the Red Devils with 17 shots and a 1.36 xG mark despite being failing to score in that contest. 25* FA Cup Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Chelsea (200405) and Manchester United (2000406). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Manchester United (200406) with the goal-line versus Chelsea (200405) in the Semifinals of the FA Cup. The Football Association Challenge Cup is the oldest national soccer competition in the world consisting of teams from England’s professional leagues. Manchester United earned their right to play in the FA Cup Semifinals the day before when they defeated Norwich City on the road by a 2-1 score. Chelsea reached the Semifinals of the FA Cup on June 28th with their 1-0 win at Leicester City. This match will be played on a neutral field at Wembley Stadium.

REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER UNITED MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Man United is undefeated in their last nineteen matches across all competitions after they defeated Crystal Palace on the road by a 2-0 score on Thursday. The Red Devils have won six of their eight matches since the restart while scoring 21 goals and conceding just six times. Manchester United has been a scoring machine since the return to play as they have found the back of the net 21 times in their eight matches across all competitions. With Marcus Rashford and Paul Pogba healthy again and joining the winter transfer signing of Bruno Fernandes, the Red Devils are suddenly loaded with offensive talent. The Red Devils have also registered clean sheets in thirteen of their last nineteen contests. Chelsea has won six of their eight matches since the return but they have just a +3 net goal differential in those contests due to a sloppy defense that has conceded 11 times in those games. Lampard deploys a high-press on the opponent’s side of the field to generate more scoring opportunities. But one of the reasons why the rookie manager deploys this tactic is to compensate for the lack of defensive talent in their backline. Chelsea has allowed 11 goals in their seven league matches since the return. They have looked very shaky against less than offensive juggernauts as of late. Sheffield United generated 2.56 expected goals in a 3-0 loss to the Blades in their last road game. West Ham produced a 2.6 xG as well with meager offensive teams in Crystal Palace and Aston Villa also enjoyed 1.3 and 1.2 xG marks since the restart. To compound matters, Lampard will not have the services of one of the best holding midfielders in the world in N’Golo Kante who is on the shelf with a hamstring injury. Their Blues defense has been good at home with opponents generating just a 0.83 xG at Stamford Bridge — but in that mark rises to a 1.59 xGA clip in their eighteen EPL matches on the road. And since Project Restart, Chelsea has an ugly 2.05 xGA when playing on the road. Additionally, the Blues have seen 27 combined goals scored in their nine league matches against Big Six sides.

FINAL TAKE: Chelsea defeated Man United in the Finals of the 2018 English FA Cup by a 1-0 score — but they have since lost all six of their encounters with the Red Devils. These two teams have played three times in the 2019-20 season with Man United winning all three matches with eight goals combined while allowing just one goal. 10* FA Cup Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Manchester United (200406) with the goal-line versus Chelsea (200405). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Southampton (200149) plus the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200150). THE SITUATION: Southampton (W13-D7-L6) is unbeaten in their last five matches after they eked out a 1-1 draw at home versus Brighton and Hove Albion on Thursday. Bournemouth (W8-D7-L21) is unbeaten in their last three matches after they lost at Manchester City by a 2-1 score on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE SOUTHAMPTON PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Bournemouth is the surprising favorite in this match for two reasons. First, the Cherries are desperate for the win since they need those three points in their chase to catch Watford for 17th place in the EPL table to avoid relegation. While Bournemouth may be motivated, their sense of urgency does not replace talent or cohesion on the pitch. The Cherries have been in the danger zone of being relegated since Project Restart — yet this motivation did not inspire quality efforts in a 4-1 loss at home to Newcastle United nor a 2-0 loss at home to Crystal Palace in the last month. On paper, their narrow loss to the previous two-time defending champions in Man City along with a 4-1 win against a Leicester City side who begin this match week 37 tied with Manchester United for 4th place in the table along with a 0-0 draw against a traditional Big Six opponent at Tottenham gives the appearance that manager Eddie Howe has found some answers late in the season. Well, let’s talk about those results. That nil-nil draw with the Spurs was a disgusting display on both sides particularly for a Tottenham group that failed to register even one big chance representing a scoring opportunity with at least a 35% success rate. The Spurs were tired playing their third game in six days — and they were lackadaisical against a Cherries team that had the worst statistical defense in the league since the return at that time while allowing nine combined goals in their previous two matches. Leicester City then dominated them in the first half of their next match — before apparently getting high on their own supply at halftime as they came out sloppy and listless. A terrible error by goaltender Kasper Schmeichel allowed Junior Stanislas to tie the match on a penalty kick — and then Dominic Solanke scored just a minute later after a lack of focus defensive error. The Foxes’ Caglar Soyuncu then kicked Solanke in frustration after scoring that goal which earned him a red card while giving Bournemouth an 11-versus-10 advantage on the pitch from which they scored those final two goals. The NBC-Sports Network pundits wished to credit Howe for inspiring his team for the rally — but I think all credit/blame goes to Leicester City manager Brendan Rodgers for letting his team return to the field with such a lack of intensity. The Cherries then faced a Man City team that did not start Kevin DeBruyne (who got the entire match off), Raheem Sterling, Riyad Mahrez, and Aymeric LaPorte to rest them for their upcoming FA Cup Semifinals match on Saturday. The Cityzens still raced to a 2-0 lead in the first 39 minutes of that match before hitting cruise control. David Brooks scored a late goal in the 88th minute to make the final score appear closer than it felt. So, let bettors think those results represent a late resurgence. This remains a team that has only generated 15 points in the league since November. Bournemouth has lost eighteen of their last twenty-five matches — and they won only one of their last eleven matches while getting outscored by a 24 to 12 margin and losing eight those contests. The Cherries have been an aggressive team playing with a frenetic pace under Howe’s tenure — but forward Joshua King has been lost since the return to play while his partner up top in Callum Wilson has been so ineffective that he did not start on Wednesday. With these two struggling, Howe has not had a “Plan B” for his team. And the defense that has always been the weakness for this team has been dreadful. The Cherries have allowed 38 goals in their last nineteen matches with just one clean sheet in that embarrassing display by the Spurs. They have allowed 15 goals in their seven matches in Project Restart. Furthermore, to make matters even worse, their defender in center back Nathan Ake, is out for this match (and likely the season) with an injury. Southampton is W3-D3-L1 in project restart which places them tied with Everton in 11th place. Using the expected goals metric, the Saints rise to 8th place in expected points (xPTS). This is a quality team that has found themselves after an embarrassing 9-0 loss at home to Leicester City. Hassenhuttl stuck to his guns regarding an aggressive high-press — and a move from a back-four to a back-three defensive alignment after the international break in the winter triggered a W7-D2-L3 run. Southampton upset Man City on July 5th and they have upset both 3rd place Chelsea and 4th place Leicester City on the road. The Saints have played much better away from their home at Saint Mary’s as their 28 points on the road are tied for the 4th most — and the metrics indicate this is not a fluke since their xPTS rise to a 29.40 mark. Southampton has won the expected goals (xG) battle in their four matches on the road since the restart with a W2-D2-L0 mark where they outscored their home hosts by a 9-4 margin. Over their last ten road games, they are W6-D2-L2 with nineteen goals and just thirteen goals allowed. Additionally, they are W7-D2-L2 in their last eleven road matches against non-Big Six opponents while scoring twenty goals and allowing just ten goals. If there has been a weakness with this team, it has been on defense — but they have allowed only seven goals in their matches in Project Restart.

FINAL TAKE: The metrics scream Southampton in this match. At this point in the season, the concern with backing the Saints regards to their possible lack of motivation in this match since they are stuck in the middle of the table safe from relegation but eliminated from Europa League qualification. Yet I see several reasons why I expect the Saints to be locked-in for this match. First, they are building momentum for next fall under Hasenhuttl who signed to a four-year extension before the return to play this spring. Second, the team would love to help Danny Ings earn a Golden Boot which remains an outside possibility with his 20 goals which is second best but three behind Jamie Vardy. Third, Southampton is playing with revenge on their mind after a 3-1 loss at home to the Cherries in the reverse fixture back on September 20th. Fourth, the Saints would relish the chance to send their south coast English rivals back to the Championship League with a victory. Bournemouth cannot settle for the one point with a draw with just one more game left for the 2019-20 season. Don’t be surprised if Southampton steals a victory late with Ings scoring in a counter-attack (but take the Saints plus the goal-line for some very valuable insurance). But a Cherries loss would be devastating to their ambition to avoid relegation — and Southampton would be very happy to deliver that blow. 25* English Premier League Underdog of the Year with Southampton (200149) plus the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Manchester City (200401) minus the goal-line versus Arsenal (200402). THE SITUATION: The Football Association Challenge Cup is the oldest national soccer competition in the world consisting of teams from England’s professional leagues. Manchester City reached the Semifinals of the FA Cup on June 28th with their 2-0 victory at Newcastle United. Arsenal joined them that day in the FA Cup Semifinals when they defeated Sheffield United on the road by a 2-1 score.

REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Some bettors may be tempted to think that Arsenal will be dangerous underdogs in this contest after they upset English Premier League champions, Liverpool, on Wednesday by a 2-1 score also on their home pitch. The eye test and the deeper analytics of that match tell a different story. Liverpool played sloppy with a pair of defensive mistakes (including a rare error by superstar center back Virgil Van Dijk who might have made his first mistake all season) which allowed the Gunners their two goals. Arsenal managed only three shots in that match which was their lowest number in an EPL match since Opta starting tracking that statistic in 1992. They managed just 0.78 expected goals (xG) in that contest while allowing Liverpool to generate 2.51 xG — so they were very fortunate to pull that upset. Those metrics were eerily close to their previous EPL match against Tottenham where they lost by a 2-1 score while losing the xG battle by a 2.05-0.72 xG mark — and that is not a very good Spurs team right now. First-year manager Mikel Arteta has shifted the tactics of his team since taking over in December to have them play a defensive-oriented pragmatic attack which is the style of play many smaller teams embrace. Arteta needed to do this because Arsenal lacks quality talent in their backline defense. These cosmetic changes have helped as the Gunners have allowed just ten goals in their nine games since Project Restart. But these tactics have derailed their offensive attack. They are averaging a mere 9.3 shots per match in the EPL in their eight matches since the return which is the 5th lowest in the league. They are also generating only 0.9 big chances representing scoring opportunities of at least a 35% success rate per match — and their xG in their last eight EPL matches is 1.13. Arsenal is 9th in the EPL with 53 points yet the expected goals metric projects that mark should be just 43.34 based on expected points (xPTS). The Gunners are also overachieving at home at Emirates Stadium where their 33 points from a W9-D6-L3 mark in league play is tempered by just 24.15 xPTS which is 8th worst in the EPL. Man City is W6-D0-L2 in their eight EPL matches since the return with the highest xPTS mark over that span. They come off a 2-1 win over Bournemouth on Wednesday which may look listless at first glance — but keep in mind that manager Pep Guardiola rested his key players in that match. Raheem Sterling, Riyad Mahrez, Rodri, and Eric Garcia did not start this match while lynchpins Kevin DeBruyne and Aymeric LaPorte did not play at all to rest and prepare for this contest. Man City is disappointed to not pull off a three-peat with EPL titles — but they can still achieve a historic season by retaining their FA Cup national title before winning the European Championship League which is a feat they have not accomplished under Guardiola’s stewardship. And while they have “only” 75 points in the EPL this season, the xPTS raise that mark to 80.98 which is higher than even Liverpool’s xPTS. The Cityzens have missed LaPorte anchoring their defense as he has spent much of the year injured. But since his return, Man City has shutout eight of their last thirteen opponents — and this includes six clean sheets in their nine contests in Project Restart.

FINAL TAKE: Man City has dominated Arsenal as of late — they have won the last seven encounters between these two teams with all of these victories by more than one goal. The Cityzens have scored at least three goals in six of those contests — and they have five clean sheets against the Gunners in those games. Overall, Man City has outscored Arsenal by a whopping 20-2 margin in these last seven battles. Man City won both EPL matches between these two teams by 3-0 scores with the last encounter being on June 17th where they also won the xG battle by a dominant 2.92-0.28 margin. A rested Man City should expose the suspect Arsenal defense who allowed their last two Big Six opponents in Liverpool and Tottenham to average 2.0 expected goals. 25* FA Cup Semifinals Match of the Year with Manchester City (200401) minus the goal-line versus Arsenal (200402). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Burnley (200177) and Norwich City (200178). THE SITUATION: Burnley (W14-D9-L13) has suffered only one loss in their last fourteen EPL matches with their 1-1 draw against Wolverhampton on Wednesday. Norwich City (W5-D6-L25) has lost nine straight games across all competitions with their 1-0 loss at Chelsea on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Norwich City has nothing to play for having been officially been relegated back to the Championship League. Daniel Farke has been with the franchise for three years so there is a pretty good chance he will remain the Canaries manager next season by Sporting Director Stuart Webber. Farke appears to have his team embracing defensive tactics after his squad is last in the EPL in goals allowed. Norwich City has not allowed more than two goals in four of their last six games. But the consequences of these changes has been to stifle the Canaries offensive activity. Norwich City has scored only twice in their eight matches since the return to action — and they have scored just once in their seven EPL matches in Project Restart. In their loss to the Blues on Tuesday, the Canaries managed just a microscopic 0.06 expected goals (xG) mark with just two shot attempts with neither on target. Norwich City has the fewest big chances consisting of opportunities with at least a 35% success rate since the return to play last month while managing zero big chances and just three shots in the box over their last two contests. This problem did not just begin in Project Restart. After a 2-2 draw with Tottenham on December 28th, the Canaries have scored just five combined goals in their next sixteen matches. Teemu Pukki was an offensive juggernaut for this team early in the season but he has not scored since January 22nd — and he may not even play in this match after not starting against Chelsea since he is probably not in the team’s future plans next year. Norwich City returns home to Carrow Road where they have scored just 19 times in their eighteen EPL matches. And in their twelve home games against non-Big Six sides, the Canaries have scored only nine goals. Burnley has scored only six goals in their seven EPL matches since the return while posting a meager 0.92 xG. But the Clarets have very tough to score on as they have allowed only eight goals in those contests. Manager Sean Dyche has his team play a very disciplined and compact system that emphasizes defense — and he may have the hottest keeper in the EPL in Nick Pope who has registered fourteen clean sheets this season. Pope was brilliant for Burnley in the team’s last game on the road which ended in a 1-1 draw with the newly crowned EPL champions in Liverpool. The Clarets go back on the road where they have only scored three goals in their last five matches. They did suffer a 5-0 loss at Manchester City in their first game in Project Restart but Dyche fielded a young and inexperienced starting XI in that contest after dealing with some injuries and key absences given contract disputes (and he was sending a message to management that he needed help with the depth of his roster). Burnley can struggle against the elite teams in the league with huge talent disparities — but they are unbeaten in their last road games against non-Big Six sides with four victories. They only scored five goals in those six games but they allowed just two goals.

FINAL TAKE: Over their last six matches since that embarrassment at Man City, the Clarets have allowed only three goals while scoring six times. Pope has three clean sheets over that span leading his team to three 1-0 victories with the other three results being 1-1 draws. Those last six matches for Burnley have not seen more than two combined goals scored. Now facing a Norwich City team having so many difficulties in scoring, expect another lower scoring match. 10* EPL Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the match between Burnley (200177) and Norwich City (200178). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing West Ham (200106) minus the goal-line versus Watford (200105). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W9-D7-L9) looks to build off their 4-0 win at Norwich City last Saturday. Watford (W8-D10-L17) has won their last two matches after their 2-1 win at home over Newcastle United.

REASONS TO TAKE WEST HAM WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The Hammers are in good form right now — they are W2-D1-L1 in their last four contests while scoring nine goals and allowing just five goals. West Ham has scored at least two goals in three of their last four contests. The improvement can be attributed to manager David Moyes moving Michail Antonio up to forward as the primary attacker — and he has gelled with forward Jarrod Bowen on the wing who has been featured since he was acquired from Hull City in the winter transfer period. Antonio scored all four goals against the Canaries last week in that 4-0 victory! Over these last four matches, the Hammers have averaged a robust 2.71 expected goals (xG) while winning the expected goals battle in all four contests. West Ham returns home to London Stadium where they have underachieved this season — but they did defeat Chelsea at home back on July 1st by a 3-2 score. Watford’s last two victories have both been at home — but not they go back on the road where they have won just one time in their last nine matches. The Hornets have been shutout in their last four games away from home. For the season, Watford is generating just 1.02 xG in their seventeen road games while allowing 1.76 xG per contest. In their last six road games, the Hornets have managed just 4.74 xG in those games while conceding 9.29 expected goals allowed (xGA) combined in those contests. West Ham is going to score in this match as Watford has earned just one clean sheet in their twelve games. Ismail Sarr was playing great for manager Nigel Pearson when this team went on a nice run in the winter but the transfer who signed for a club-record has been listless and ineffective in Project Restart with just one shot in his last five matches.

FINAL TAKE: Both these teams are tied in 16th place with 34 points which is three points clear of relegation. A victory likely ensures the winner returns to the English Premier League in the fall. West Ham won the reverse fixture by a 3-1 score back on August 24th. The Hammers are in better form — and Watford has struggled when playing away from Vicarage Road. 25* English Premier League Friday NBC-Sports Network Match of the Month with the West Ham (200106) minus the goal-line versus Watford (200105). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200125) and Arsenal (200126). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W30-D3-L2) enters this match coming off a 1-1 draw at home to Burnley on Saturday. Arsenal (W12-D14-L9) is winless in their last two matches after their 2-1 loss at Tottenham on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Arsenal is struggling with their attack. They managed just 0.72 expected goals (xG) against the Spurs while failing to generate a Big Chance representing a scoring opportunity with at least a 35% success rate. They have scored only eleven goals in their seven league matches since the restart — and their 1.18 xG mark over that span is just 13th best in the EPL. Furthermore, the Gunners have managed only 0.86 non-penalty kick Big Chances per game since the return to play which is also 13th in the league. Some of this lackluster offensive performance is due to manager Mikel Arteta having his team take on more counter-attacking tendencies after prioritizing more defensive tactics to compensate for a lack of elite defenders on their backline. They have allowed only eight goals in their seven EPL matches since the restart with a solid 1.22 expected goals allowed (xGA) mark. They return home to the Emirates where they have allowed only one goal in their last three home matches. Overall, Arsenal has surrendered only 21 goals in their seventeen home matches. But it will be difficult for the Gunners to score in this match. They have a meager 5.62 xG combined mark in their seven matches against teams in the top-four in the standings. And with the FA Cup Semifinals coming up on Saturday, don’t be surprised if their best attacker, Pierre-Emerice Aubameyag is benched to provide him rest for that match. Liverpool has allowed just six goals in their six matches in Project Restart — but they have managed to score only ten times during that stretch. The dirty little secret with the new EPL champions is that they have not been a devastating team when playing away from Anfield as of late. They broke a scoreless drought lasting longer than five matches across all competitions in their last game on the road with their 3-1 win at Brighton and Hove Albion. With manager Jurgen Klopp still looking to have his team break the EPL record for most points in a season, look for his best starting XI for this contest with the Reds needing to win each of their last three matches. Liverpool has allowed only 14 goals in their seventeen league matches on the road. The Reds have also allowed just nine goals in their eight matches against Big Six sides — but they have scored only four goals in their four road games against Big Six teams.

FINAL TAKE: Arsenal had produced three straight clean sheets before failing to win their last two matches where they scored only two combined goals. Liverpool won the reverse fixture between these two teams back on August 24th last year by a 3-1 score but this should be a lower scoring contest. 10* EPL Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200125) and Arsenal (200126). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Real Madrid (201881) and Granada (201882). THE SITUATION: Real Madrid (W24-D8-L3) has won all eight of their matches since the restart after they defeated Alaves by a 2-0 score on Friday. Granada (W14-D8-L13) is unbeaten in their last three matches after they defeated Real Sociedad on the road last Friday by a 3-2 score.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Real Madrid may be the best defensive squad in Europe. They have registered five straight clean sheets since blanking Alaves on Friday —  and they did that despite allowing their guests to register 1.20 expected goals (xG) which were their highest expected goals allowed (xGA) since the restart. Los Blancos were playing without their rock in the middle of their defensive line in Sergio Ramos for that contest but he should be back on the pitch after getting that match off to rest. Real Madrid has allowed only two goals in these last eight matches — and their 0.62 xGA per match is best in the league over that span. Los Blancos have held six of these last eight opponents to below a 1.0 xG mark. But scoring can be an issue for this team. Five of their fifteen goals since the return have been from Ramos which does speak to his greatness — but it is not a great sign when a defenseman is scoring 33% of your goals. Only the brilliant Karim Benzema is averaging at least 0.40 xG per 90 minutes of the Real Madrid attacking players since the return to play. Yet manager Zinedine Zidane is content to continue to play pragmatically and grind out lower-scoring matches. Their last five matches have seen two victories by 2-0 scores with three wins by narrow 1-0 margins. This is probably the formula for success that Zidane foresees for next month’s Championship League campaign with juggernaut offensive units like Bayern Munich, Manchester City, and PSG among the main challenges (and they need to rally against the Cityzens in the second leg of that Round of Sixteen showdown). Real Madrid goes back on the road where they have scored only five goals in their last five matches. Granada is a defensive-minded team that may very well play with five defenders in their back-line for this showdown. El Grana was very fortunate to score three goals on Friday on just four shots on target — their xG was a meager 0.61 in that match. Granada has scored only twelve goals in their eight matches since the return — but they have held those eight opponents to just ten goals. They expected goals metrics indicate those numbers are indicative of El Grana’s play on both ends of the pitch as they have averaged 1.33 xG along with 1.23 xGA in those contests. They host this match at Nuevo Los Carmenes Stadium where they have scored only 21 times in their seventeen home matches. But they have surrendered just 14 goals in those seventeen games which are good for a 0.82 goals-per-game allowed average — and their xGA of 1.01 in those contests is also outstanding. Furthermore, in their seven matches against teams in the top half of the league standings, they have a low 7.81 xGA mark which makes their 9.0 xG in those seven games quite competitive.

FINAL TAKE: Granada has become a very tough “out” at home with a 2-0 upset victory over Barcelona and a 1-1 draw with Atletico Madrid on their resume this season. El Grana has much to play for now besides being in the role of spoiler as they are just three points out of 6th place beginning the day. Real Madrid needs two victories in their last three contests to clinch the league title — but things could get nervy for this squad playing on the road against a feisty defensive side. 25* La Liga Monday beIN Sports Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Real Madrid (201881) and Granada (201882). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Southampton (200097) and Manchester United (200098). THE SITUATION: Southampton (W13-D5-L6) enters this match coming off a 1-1 draw at Everton on Thursday. Manchester United (W16-D10-L8) is unbeaten in their last seventeen matches across all competitions after they defeated Aston Villa on the road last Thursday by a 3-0 score.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Manchester United as an offensive juggernaut right now having scored fourteen goals over their last four matches. The winter transfer addition of Bruno Fernandes has done wonders for this team to stabilize their midfield — and getting healthy again with the three-months of stoppage of play allowed both Marcus Rashford and Paul Pogba to return to the pitch to make this Red Devils attack explode. Anthony Martial is a feisty forward who is benefitting from the presence of Rashford, Fernandes, and Pogba while 18-year old Mason Greenwood is suddenly thriving as another attacker with this embarrassment of riches for manager Gunnar Solskjaer. Man United has been a streaky team under Solskjaer who has been under fire — but he has been smart enough to not rock the boat with a good thing going so I do not expect lineup changes for this match (perhaps midweek). The Red Devils have scored seventeen goals in their six matches across all competitions since the return to play. They return home to Old Trafford where they have scored 37 goals in their seventeen league matches. They are also averaging a healthy 1.97 expected goals in those contests — and keep in mind that these seasonal numbers include playing half the season without Fernandes while dealing with the off-and-on injuries to Rashford and Pogba’s almost season-long absence. In their last four home games in league contests, the Red Devils have scored 13 times. And while Man United’s defense has been strong since the return, there have been some cracks in that armor. They surrendered two goals to a struggling Bournemouth side with that expected goals allowed (xGA) number being 1.97 xGA. They have allowed 24 goals in their twenty-four matches against non-Big Six sides this season while conceding 11 goals in their twelve home matches against these clubs — so I do not expect them to keep a clean sheet in this match. Southampton has scored eight goals in their five matches since the return with attacker Danny Ings supplying five of those goals. Inge has 19 goals on the season to find himself in the Golden Boot race for most goals scored in the EPL this season. The Saints should have seen at least another goal in that match at Everton with their xG of 2.30 in that contest. Under manager Ralph Hasenhuttl, the team plays an aggressive high press which creates more scoring opportunities while leaving them vulnerable in the back. This team is not going to park the bus — besides, they would love to feed Ings more scoring chances to help his Golden Boot chances. Hasenhuttl is convinced this approach is what is best for his team — and they did just upset Man City by a 1-0 score. But while they produced the clean sheet against the two-time defending champions, they were quite fortunate with that result considering that they gave up an xGA of 3.53 in that contests. Now they go back on the road where they have scored seven times in their last three matches. The Saints are one of the better teams on the road in the league (one of the reasons why I am passing on the side play in this match) with 55% of their total expected goals this season taking place away from home. Their 1.58 xG on the road is 5th best in the league. And they also have upset wins at Chelsea and Leicester City on the road this season.

FINAL TAKE: Southampton has allowed just four goals since the restart — but their xGA for those five games jumps to 8.41. These two teams played to a 1-1 draw way back in the idyll days of late August 2019 at St. Mary’s — but the Saints have allowed 2.0 goals-per-game in their five road matches against a Big Six side with sixteen combined goals scored in those games. 25* English Premier League Monday NBC-Sports Network Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Southampton (200097) and Manchester United (200098). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Leicester City (200093) minus the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200094). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W17-D8-L9) looks to build off a 1-1 draw at Arsenal on Tuesday. Bournemouth (W7-D7-L20) snapped a five-game losing streak with a nil-nil draw at home versus Tottenham on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE LEICESTER CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Foxes have only lost one match in their five games in Project Restart but they are disappointed with settling for three draws over that span. Leicester City was playing their best soccer in the fall before taking a step back — but they remain in 4th place in the EPL table with a one-point lead over Manchester United pending this match week’s results. But there are reasons for optimism for this team: Jamie Vardy has scored three goals in the last two games. As Vardy goes, so do the Foxes. If he gets into form, he can carry this team on his shoulders. He has more Big Chances of scoring opportunities with at least a 35% success rate over the last two games matches the number of Big Chances he has generated in his previous nine matches combined. The Foxes are playing stingy defense as they have allowed just four goals in their five matches since the return. Leicester City tends to feast on the bottom teams in the league as well. The Foxes are W15-D5-L4 in their twenty-four matches against non-Big Six sides while scoring 52 goals and allowing just 11 goals. Additionally, Leicester City is W7-D2-L3 in their twelve road matches against non-Power Six opponents with 27 goals and just nine goals conceded. Bournemouth has scored just three goals in Project Restart while conceding 12 goals. This is a team that seems resigned to being relegated under manager Eddie Howe who seems to have run out answers for this team. The Cherries play an open-style of play which is entertaining — but it is also dangerous when they are not scoring plenty of goals. Bournemouth had allowed nine goals in their previous two matches before not allowing the Spurs to score in their last match. That result may speak more to the woeful state of Tottenham right now under enigmatic manager Jose Mourinho than it does about any improved play with the Cherries. The 2.4 goals-per-game they are allowing since the restart is the highest number in the EPL. Bournemouth is just W5-D4-L15 in their twenty-four matches against non-Big Six sides while scoring 21 goals and allowing 39 goals.

FINAL TAKE: Bournemouth did win the expected goals battle with Tottenham by a 1.50-0.67 xG clip but that was the first time they outperformed their opponent in that metric since the restart. They enter this match with two fewer days of rest which will not help their chances of fending off relegation. The Cherries find themselves six points from safety entering this match. Leicester City won the reverse fixture back on August 31st by a 3-1 score. The Foxes are motivated and rested — and they tend to play their best soccer against the weaker teams. 25* English Premier League Sunday NBC-Sports Network Match of the Year with the Leicester City (200093) minus the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200094). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Atletico Madrid (201906) minus the goal-line versus Real Betis (201905). THE SITUATION: Atletico Madrid (W16-D15-L4) remained unbeaten in their last fifteen contests across all competitions with their 1-1 draw at Celta de Vigo on Tuesday. Real Betis (W10-D11-L4) looks to build off a 3-0 win over Osasuna on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE ATLETICO MADRID MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: That was just the second win since the return for Los Verdiblancos — but that victory was against the last place Espanyol. Real Betis then hired Manuel Pellegrini the next day to a three-year contract which will begin for the 2020-21 campaign. Interim manager and current Sporting Director Alexis Trujillo will remain on the sidelines for this team for this match — but the players may experience an emotional letdown with things settled for next season. Los Verdiblancos go back on the road where they are winless in their last ten matches. Real Betis is averaging just 1.13 expected goals (xG) in their seventeen road matches in league play while allowing 1.91 expected goals (xGA) which compares unfavorably to their 1.79 xG - 1.32 xGA mark when playing at home. Los Verdiblancos have scored more than one goal just twice in their last ten road matches. Scoring will be difficult for Real Betis at Wanda Metropolitano where Atletico Madrid has allowed only ten goals in La Liga which is the stingiest mark in the league. Atleti has registered seven clean sheets in their last eleven home games. They have won all three of their home matches since the restart with a 2.04 xG mark along with holding their three guests to just 0.76 xGA. Atletico Madrid has won five of their eight matches since the return to action last month — and they have won the expected goals battle in all eight matches. Furthermore, Atleti has won the xG battle in twenty-eight of their thirty-five league matches this season. Despite settling for the 1-1 draw on Tuesday on the road at Celta, they won the xG battle by a 1.12-0.31 clip in that contest. They have scored a healthy 16 goals in their eight matches since the return while posting a solid 13.6 combined xG mark in those games. They return home where they have lost only once in their last twenty-four league games — and they have scored in twelve straight home games.

FINAL TAKE: Atletico Madrid can all-but clinch their spot in the Champions League with three more points that come with a victory as they currently sit tied with Sevilla in 3rd place in the table. 3rd place also avoids additional qualifying hurdles for the new Champions League season which manager Diego Simeone would prefer to avoid. Real Betis has little to play for now with a new manager in place. They are sitting in the middle of the table in 13th place where they are 9 points safe from relegation but a dozen points shy of 6th place and the last guaranteed spot for the Europa League in the fall. Atletico Madrid defeated Real Betis on the road by a 2-1 score back on December 22nd. Look for Atleti to have an easier time of it in this rematch. 20* La Liga Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Atletico Madrid (201906) minus the goal-line versus Real Betis (201905). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200077) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200078). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W22-D3-L9) looks to build off a 5-0 win over Newcastle United on Wednesday. Brighton (W8-D12-L14) looks to rebound from a 3-1 loss at home to Liverpool on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Man City peppered the Magpies with 23 shots with nine of them on target. The Cityzens have scored 18 goals in their six EPL matches in Project Restart — and they have scored 20 goals in their last seven contests overall since the return including their 2-0 victory over that Newcastle team in the FA Cup two weeks ago. Man City is averaging 2.60 expected goals (xG) this season which is their highest mark in the last five seasons. We are not sure who will get the start in this match with manager Pep Guardiola keeping an eye towards the FA Cup Semifinals versus Arsenal along with the second-leg of their Round of Sixteen Champions League match with Real Madrid. But Guardiola has an abundance of riches to choose from given the depth of the winner of the last two EPL seasons. Raheem Sterling should be in the starting XI after not starting against the Magpies. And even if mainstays like Kevin DuBruyne do not get the start this afternoon, there is a good chance he will play for at least 20 minutes in this match to maintain his fitness. Man City has scored 69 goals in their last 24 matches against non-Big Six sides — and they have 31 goals in their twelve road matches against non-Big Six opponents. But the Cityzens’ have been leaky on defense this season especially playing on the road where they have allowed 22 goals in seventeen games away from the Etihad. Brighton had entered last week’s match with the newly crowned EPL champions having played pretty stingy defense — but they allowed Liverpool to attempt 20 shots with eight of them on target. The Reds generated 2.68 expected goals (xG) in that match. But manager Graham Potter can take comfort in their ability to generate 2.88 xG against the stout Liverpool defense in that match. The Seagulls have allowed 22 goals this season in their last eleven matches against Power Six sides. They have played Liverpool, Man United, and Arsenal in their last three home matches which have seen 10 combined goals scored in those contests including allowing three goals each to the Reds and Red Devils.

FINAL TAKE: Man City dominated the reverse fixture between these two teams with a 4-0 win on August 31st. The Cityzens have seen 3.60 combined xG in their matches this season with that mark rising to a combined 3.85 xG in their last five contests. 25* English Premier League NBC-Sports Network Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200077) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200078). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Granada (201837) and Real Sociedad (201838). THE SITUATION: Granada (W13-D8-L13) enters this match coming off a 2-2 draw versus Valencia on Saturday. Real Sociedad (W15-D6-L13) also comes off a draw when they played Levante on the road to a 1-1 score on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Granada suffered some tough luck to settle for the one point on Saturday as they limited Valencia to just 0.82 expected goals (xG). El Grana has surrendered just eight goals in their seven matches since the return to play. They go back on the road where they have surrendered 26 goals in seventeen road matches — but the deeper metrics also suggest they have been unfortunate to see that many goals as their expected goals allowed (xGA) drops to 22.26. Granada has scored 21 goals in those seventeen road contests — but they have managed just seven goals in their eight matches against teams from the top half of the league. El Grana has also scored only nine goals in their seven matches in Project Restart. Real Sociedad has only scored five goals in their last six contests. La Real has also seen some bad luck relating to goals allowed. They have allowed 43 goals this season — but their xGA drops to 39.10. Furthermore, while Real Sociedad has held their opponents to just 17 goals in their seventeen home matches, their xGA at home in those contests falls to 14.28 which is the 3rd best mark in La Liga.

FINAL TAKE: Real Sociedad won the reverse fixture between these two teams on the road by a 2-1 score on November 3rd. Expect a lower-scoring game in this rematch. 10* La Liga Friday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the match between Granada (201837) and Real Sociedad (201838). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200045) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200046). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W29-D2-L2) enters this match as champions of the 2019-20 Premier League coming off a 2-0 win over Aston Villa on Sunday. Brighton and Hove Albion (W8-D12-L13) look to build off a 1-0 win over Norwich City on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Liverpool was fortunate to score against the Villans in what was a listless performance that remained scoreless after the 70th minute before they scored two late goals. The Reds registered a small 0.82 expected goal mark (xG) against the suspect Aston Villa defense in that match. Liverpool have scored just six times in their four matches since Project Restart. Mo Salah has registered just one Big Chance representing a scoring opportunity with at least a 35% success rate since the return of play. He may not even get the start this afternoon with manager Jurgen Klopp likely to rotate out some of his key players. Roberto Firminho did not start on Sunday so while he is likely to take the pitch again for this match, it is likely that either Salah or Sadio Mane will get the afternoon off with a higher-profile match against Arsenal on deck next week. The Reds lose some of their offensive cohesion when their big three are not together on the pitch. Klopp looks likely to also rest defenseman Andrew Robertson who is an important cog in their offensive attack. Liverpool has struggled to score goals when playing away from Anfield. They have failed to score in their last five road games across all competitions spanning an incredible seven hours and 42 minutes. But the Reds’ defense remains consistent — they have allowed only 13 goals in their sixteen road games in the EPL. Furthermore, Liverpool has only allowed 13 goals in their twenty-five league games against non-Big Six sides — and they have surrendered just 7 goals in their twelve road games against non-Big Six opponents. Brighton has scored only three goals in their four matches since the return to action while averaging just 0.85 xG. But the defensive play for manager Graham Potter’s side has been outstanding as they have allowed just four goals in these four matches while holding these foes to just 0.75 xGA. The Seagulls have allowed just one Big Chance in their four matches since the return which includes facing some formidable offensive clubs in Manchester United, Arsenal, and Leicester City. They have three clean sheets in their last five matches. Unfortunately for Potter, they have also been shutout in four of their last eight matches. They return home where they have scored only 19 goals — but they have surrendered just 19 goals. Furthermore, in their four opportunities to host a Big Six side, the Seagulls have scored just 6 goals while allowing only 5 goals.

FINAL TAKE: Liverpool won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 2-1 score back on November 30th. The Reds have not scored more than two goals when playing on the road in their last six road games going back to December 26th. Brighton has seen seven of their last eight home matches go Under 2.5. 25* English Premier League Midweek NBC-Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200045) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200046). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200033) minus the goal-line versus Sheffield United (200034). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W13-D13-L7) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last Saturday with their 2-0 loss at home to Arsenal. Sheffield United (W12-D12-L9) is unbeaten in their last two matches on Sunday with their 1-1 draw at Burnley.

REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Sheffield United faces a challenging situation with this being their fourth game in the last eleven days. Because of needing to catch up on a delayed league match prior to the stoppage of play along being still alive in the Quarterfinals of the FA Cup, the Blades have played two more matches than the Wolves entering this contest — so fatigue is a real concern here. As a promoted side this season, Sheffield United simply lacks the depth of some of the other traditional EPL powers. As it is, the Blades are dealing with a number of injuries in their midfield with John Lundstram, John Fleck, and Luke Freeman all out for this match. Cracks are showing with this Sheffield United defense as they have allowed 48 scoring chances since the restart in league play while surrounding 2.5 Big Chances representing scoring opportunities of at least a 35% success rate. Regression was perhaps inevitable for manager Chris Wilder’s team on defense as they may be allowing only 1.00 goals-per-game but that numbers rise to a 1.44 expected goals allowed (xGA) mark. Furthermore, the Blades have allowed just 14 goals at home at Bramall Lane at home, their xGA at home rises to a 19.07 mark. Wolverhampton had shutout seven of their last eight opponents before losing to the Gunners on Saturday. The Wolves play consistently sound defense for manager Nuno Espirito Santo — and they are even better when they have Willy Boly healthy and paired with Roman Saiss as they will in this match. Wolverhampton has been consistent on the road where they hold their opponents to just 1.06 goals-per-game while averaging 1.44 goals-per-game. They are 3rd in the league with 27 points on the road — and they are 2nd in the EPL in expected points (xPTS).

FINAL TAKE: These two teams settled for a 1-1 drawback on December 1st back when Sheffield United was healthier and playing much better on the defensive end of the pitch. With the Blades dealing with knocks and a challenging makeup schedule, they are at a disadvantage when hosting (without fans) a Wolves team playing with one extra day of rest and two fewer matches under their belts since the return. 10* EPL Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Wolverhampton (200033) minus the goal-line versus Sheffield United (200034). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Leicester City (200029) and Arsenal (200030). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W17-D7-L9) snapped a three-match winless straight on Saturday with a 3-0 victory over Crystal Palace. Arsenal (W12-D13-L8) has won four straight games across all competitions with their 2-0 win at Wolverhampton on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Arsenal has registered three straight clean sheets in EPL play with their upset win over the Wolves. The Gunners have adjusted tactics under new manager Mikel Arteta to become more of a defensive-oriented side who finds their offense from the counter-attack. Over their last four matches, they are allowing only 0.71 expected goals (xGA) per game while giving up just one Big Chance of a scoring opportunity with at least a 35% success rate. Arteta inherited a team from manager Unai Emery who was allowing 1.61 Big Chances per game so it is understandable why Arteta shifted tactics. This has had an impact on the Arsenal attack as they have averaged only 1.36 expected goals (xG) under his leadership. The Gunners have scored only 49 goals this season which is far below the 73 goals they scored last season. And while they have 30 goals scored at home at the Emirates in their sixteen matches in league play, that number plummets to just a 23.89 xG amount. Arsenal has scored 12 combined goals in their last four home games but all those opponents were bottom of the table teams. In their six matches this season against one of the top four teams currently in the EPL table, they have managed only a combined 4.44 expected goals — but they have held those six opponents to just 3.58 xGA combined. Leicester City had managed to score only two goals in their three matches since the return before Jamie Vardy scored twice in the final 17 minutes for that 3-0 win over the Eagles. I suspect that scoring display had more to do with good fortune while facing a desperate Crystal Palace team trying to even the score at 1-1 late in that match. Vardy has not been himself in 2020 after enjoying a torrid stretch late in the fall. Since New Year’s Day, the Foxes are generating only 1.44 xG in their five league matches on the road. They have scored only three goals in those five road games. But they have also held their five home hosts to just 1.28 xGA per match.

FINAL TAKE: Leicester City won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 2-0 score back on November 9th. But the Foxes have scored only seven more goals in their eight other matches against Big Six sides. Leicester City has only allowed four goals since the return with two clean sheets in those four matches. Expect a lower-scoring match. 10* EPL Tuesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the match between Leicester City (200029) and Arsenal (200030). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Everton (200017) plus the goal-line versus Tottenham (200018). THE SITUATION: Everton (W12-D8-L12) is unbeaten in their last eight matches after their 2-1 win over Leicester City last Wednesday. Tottenham (W12-D9-L11) looks to bounce back from a 3-1 loss at Sheffield United on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: That was a devastating psychological loss for Tottenham who was playing with much more rest than the promoted Blades who had played in two matches since the Spurs’ last contest. And while Tottenham complained about a controversial VAR call that took a Harry Kane goal off the board late in the first half, they were not dealt a bad hand according to the deeper metrics as they lost the expected goals battle by a 1.46-1.08 xG margin. New manager Jose Mourinho expressed his displeasure with his team’s effort after the match because Mourinho can never fail — he can only be failed (in his world). I don’t that is going to sit well with a veteran locker room whose lack of interest already got Mauricio Pochettino fired earlier in the season. Mourinho wears his players thin — and that process may already be underway in these uniquely challenging circumstances with the Spurs’ players having little at stake. Frankly, the problems of this team are systemic of an organization not willing to get out their wallets to compete with the other Big Six franchises. Harry Kane has lost a step or two after two injury-riddled campaigns — and if he is no longer an all-world striker, this team’s quality quickly plummets. Mourinho changed Pochettino’s tactics from a pressing, possession team to a counter-attacking squad. While that makes the Spurs dangerous against elite possession sides like Liverpool and Man City, it can leave them flummoxed against other counter-attacking sides like Sheffield United. Tottenham was simply bereft of scoring ideas against the Blades when advancing the ball. Son-Heung-Min has been relegated to an afterthought playing wide on the wing. Dele Alli was perhaps the player who most benefited from Mourinho’s appointment — but he was suspended last week and remains a doubt this week with a hamstring injury. The sugar-high from Mourinho’s appointment has lone gone with the Spurs’ short-term improvement in play now overwhelmed by consistently troubling numbers. Tottenham’s defense is atrocious — they have the 5th most expected goals allowed (xGA) in the EPL since Mourinho took over in November with those numbers worsening to being 3rd worth in the league since the start of 2020. They also have the league’s worst xGA rate when playing at home in this calendar year. The Spurs are allowing 1.85 xGA under Mourinho which is not being neutralized by their offensive attack since they have produced only a 1.58 xG during that span with the manager which is only 8th best in the EPL. Tottenham under Mourinho is 11th in the EPL in net expected goal differential (xGD) and they are 13th in expected points (xPTS). I made the argument last week that those numbers should be taken with a grain of salt given the bevy of injuries that this team has faced all season. In retrospect, I should not have read too much into their recent victory over a relegation-threatened West Ham while appreciating that their 1-1 draw with Man United was both fortunate and a by-product of their counter-attacking tactics meshing well with the Red Devils’ forward aggressiveness. And, of course, any hopes that a healthy Spurs side will begin outperforming their metrics assume a team that is still playing hard for their manager. Returning home to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium would normally be seen a positive for this team — but a stadium without fans is not what this group needs right now. Furthermore, the Spurs are averaging only 1.48 xG at home under Mourinho while seeing their opponents produce a 1.63 xG in those games. Everton has won two of three matches in Project Restart with their lone blemish being a nil-nil draw with Liverpool where they won the xG battle. The Toffees have played much better since Carlo Ancelotti was appointed as the replacement of manager Marco Silva. In fact, Everton’s W7-D4-L3 record since his appointment is 4th best in the EPL. The Toffees have lost only three times under Ancelotti to Man City, Chelsea, and Arsenal (in a game where the xG says they should have won). They are 4th best in the EPL over that span with a 1.93 xG on offense — and they have improved on defense with a 1.26 xGA which is an improvement over a 1.34 xGA under Silva. But Everton’s defense has particularly elevated in quality recently — they are allowing only 1.25 Big Chances (shots with a success rate of at least 35%) since match week 25 and they have surrendered just one goal in three matches since the return. The Toffees go back on the road where they have only 15 points — but the xG numbers indicate they are the second-most underachieving team in the league when playing away from home. Under Ancelotti, Everton has been the 3rd best road team in terms of expected goals with 1.93-1.34 xG marks — and they have been the most efficient team on the road in the EPL since Christmas.

FINAL TAKE: Everton’s 44 points puts them in 11th place and just one point behind Tottenham. But the metrics tell a different story with the Toffees rising to 7th best in the league in xPTS while the Spurs drop to 13th. Everton has a dominant +0.56 net expected points differential edge for Tottenham over the season — even before accounting for recent form. The Toffees still have a potential Europa League qualification alive as well with them being just four points behind Sheffield United in 7th place and the likely final qualifying spot. 25* EPL Monday NBC-Sports Network Match of the Year with the Everton (200017) plus the goal-line versus Tottenham (200018). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Real Villarreal (201826) plus the goal-line versus Barcelona (201825). THE SITUATION: Real Villarreal (W16-D6-L11) enters this match coming off a 2-0 win at Real Betis on Wednesday. Barcelona (W21-D7-L5) has settled for draws in three of their last four matches after a 2-2 draw at home with Atletico Madrid on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE REAL VILLARREAL PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: It has been a disastrous return to play for the reigning La Liga champions who have lost their grip on first place. Barcelona opened Project Restart last month with a two-point lead up on Real Madrid — but after Los Blancos late 1-0 victory over Athletico Bilbao this morning, Barca find themselves seven points behind their arch-rivals. The Blaugranas must win out their remaining five matches while hoping that Real Madrid drops points somewhere — without the benefit of another head-to-head match. Frankly, the writing is on the wall for this team with rumors of internal dissension with new manager Quique Setien who came on in January along with talk that Lionel Messi may be ready to jump ship when his contract expires next season. Antoine Griezmann is mired in a slump which has probably impacted Messi as he is enduring his worst statistical season in terms of efficiency in five seasons. Barcelona has systemic problems right now. They are too reliant on Messi to bail them out of trouble. They have been too slow in building up play when possessing the ball. They have been vulnerable against counter-attacks. And there have been too many issues with their backline that Setien inherited but has been unable to fix. Barca is just 6th in La Liga in fewest goals allowed which is unfamiliar territory for them. This team has not been the victims of bad luck as they lost the expected goals (xG) with Atletico Madrid while holding narrow edges with the xG numbers in their other two matches. The vulnerabilities of the Catalan Giants most often demonstrate themselves when playing on the road against the top teams in the league. Barcelona has won only two of their last eight matches on the road versus a top-ten La Liga opponent while losing three of these matches outright. They are also getting beaten in the xG numbers by a 1.22-0.90 xG margin in those eight road matches. Since Setien has taken over, they are generating 1.55 xG on the road while seeing their home hosts produce a 1.27 xG mark. Those are good numbers but not nearly the elite standard that Barca has set over the last five seasons where they have won four league titles. Real Villarreal was limping before the stoppage of play with three straight losses — but they have returned with a renewed focus by going unbeaten in their six matches with five victories. The Yellow Submarines have only allowed two goals in these six matches while producing five clean sheets. A switch to a 4-4-2 formation by manager Javier Calleja has helped trigger these outstanding defensive numbers by adding a fourth defender in their backline. Real Villarreal is holding their opponents to just 0.92 xG since the switch to a 4-4-2 while their quality in attack up top is still producing 2.06 xG in those games. The Yellow Submarines are also getting these good results against the best that La Liga has to offer. Real Villarreal has a 2-2 draw with Real Madrid along with a nil-nil result with Atletico Madrid and a 2-2 draw with Sevilla (the other teams in the top four of the table) along with a 1-0 win over Getafe. They now find themselves three points out of 4th place with serious Champions League aspirations in the fall. Real Villarreal is one of the mainstays in this league with top-six finishes from 2013 through 2018 before a disappointing 14th place finish last year. They have scored in 21 of their last 22 league matches — and they have also scored in 29 of their last 31 home games against La Liga competition. The Yellow Submarines are producing a healthy 2.16 xG in their sixteen home matches this season while holding their guests to just 1.46 xG.

FINAL TAKE: Real Villarreal will be looking to avenge a 2-1 loss to Barcelona at Camp Nou back on September 24th. These are much different less than ten months later with Ernesto Valverde no longer the skipper for Barca and the Yellow Submarines playing their best soccer in years. These two teams played to a 4-4 draw when playing at Real Villarreal’s Estadio de la Ceramica last year — so the home dog will be confident that they can pull the upset this time around. 25* La Liga Sunday beIN Sports Match of the Month with Real Villarreal (201826) plus the goal-line versus Barcelona (201825). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200013) and Southampton (200014). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W21-D3-L8) enters this match coming off a 4-0 victory at home over Liverpool on Thursday. Southampton (W12-D4-L16) comes off a 3-1 win at Watford last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Manchester City may have relinquished their two-season run as English Premier League champions — but they have been an offensive juggernaut and remain motivated to maintain their form with the FA Cup and Champions League titles still at stake later this summer. The Cityzens peppered a strong Liverpool defense with 14 shots while posting an expected goal mark (xG) of 2.99 which suggests that their four goals were not too much of an overachievement against the new champions of the EPL. Man City has scored 13 goals in their four EPL matches since the return to play while posting at least a 2.60 xG mark in three of those games. They also have scored 15 goals in their five overall matches since the return which includes their victory in the FA Cup Quarterfinals last weekend. The Cityzens are averaging a robust 2.56 xG per match in the EPL this season which is their highest mark over the last five seasons. They also lead the league with the most Big Chances of scoring opportunities with an expected success rate of at least 35% since the return to play. Man City averages a robust 3.1 xG in league play this season against opponents that are not in the top seven in the EPL table. But the Cityzens defense is what has held them back from a three-peat in the EPL this year. They entered this match week having allowed the most Big Chances since the return to action. Manager Pep Guardiola’s pressing system creates many scoring opportunities — but it leaves them vulnerable to great scoring chances with counter-attacks. Man City is allowing their home hosts to average 1.42 xGA in league play this year. But they are also generating 2.63 xG in their sixteen road matches in the EPL. The Cityzens have seen 83 combined goals scored in their twenty-two matches against non-Big Six sides for a 3.77 combined goal score total — and they have seen 43 combined goals scored in their 11 road matches in EPL action for a 3.91 combined goal mark. Southampton got two goals from forward Danny Ings in their victory over Watford last Sunday. Ings is challenging for the Golden Boot Award with 18 goals in the EPL this season. He has been galvanized by first-year manager Ralph Hasenhuttl’s commitment to an aggressive high-press which increases scoring opportunities for the Saints. Southampton has scored six goals in their three matches since the return — and this philosophy has worked with them reaching the 40 point threshold in the standings while being safe from relegation by 13 points. But these tactics do make them vulnerable on defense — they have allowed 33 goals at home with an  1.78 goals-against average which is the higher home mark in the EPL. Even after throwing out the Leicester City 9-0 victory at St. Mary’s in the fall as an outlier, the Saints are surrendering 1.50 goals per game at home in the EPL this season. Furthermore, in their five home matches against traditional Big Six opponents (which does not include Leicester City), Southampton has seen 16 combined goals scored.

FINAL TAKE: Manchester City won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 2-1 score back on November 2nd. Southampton is seeing an average of 2.93 xG in their matches this season with 62% of their games finishing Over 2.5 goals. Man City is seeing 3.56 xG combined goal marks in their league matches this season — and that number has increased to a 3.74 xG combined goal mark in their last four contests. 25* English Premier League NBC-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200013) and Southampton (200014). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Aston Villa (200009) and Liverpool (200010). THE SITUATION: Aston Villa (W7-D6-L9) has lost six of their last eight matches after their 1-0 loss at home to Wolverhampton last Saturday. Liverpool (W28-D2-L2) looks to rebound from their 4-0 loss at Manchester City on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Reds lacked intensity in their showdown with the Cityzens in their first match as reigning English Premier League champions. Liverpool should respond with more focus in their attack this afternoon. They return home where they have won all sixteen of their matches while scoring 44 goals. They also have averaged 2.62 goals-per-game in their thirteen home games against teams outside the Top-Six traditional powers. But with the Reds having nothing else to play for with them being eliminated from the FA Cup and Champions League competitions, don’t be surprised if the loss of vigor on defense that they displayed against Man City continues. Liverpool has lost five of their last nine matches across all competitions going back to before the stoppage of play — and that as many losses as they have experienced in their previous 76 matches combined! The Reds had been playing at an epic level for over a year — they did win the European Champions League last season. The decline seems to have begun. Aston Villa has allowed 14 goals in their last eight matches. The Villans have surrendered 60 goals this season which is the second-most in the EPL — and their expected goals allowed (xGA) worsens at a 64.21 mark which is the worst in the league. Aston Villa has also allowed 33 goals on the road which is last in the league. The Villans have only allowed four goals in their four matches since the return to play — but those results should not be overstated. They opened by facing a slumping Sheffield United team that is defensive-oriented before catching a rusty Chelsea in their first match in Project Restart. They then played an offensively-challenged Newcastle side before playing the counter-attacking Wolves last week. Their sketchy defense should be exposed by the new kings of the league.

FINAL TAKE: Liverpool won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 2-1 score back on November 2nd. Liverpool has seen at least three combined goals scored in four straight home matches with at least four goals scored in three of those contests. 10* EPL Sunday Morning Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the match between Aston Villa (200009) and Liverpool (200010). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Chelsea (200198) minus the goal-line versus Watford (200197). THE SITUATION: Chelsea (W16-D6-L10) looks to rebound from a disappointing 3-2 upset loss at West Ham on Wednesday. Watford (W6-D10-L16) comes off a 3-1 loss at home to Southampton last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE CHELSEA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Chelsea was vulnerable to an emotional letdown after pulling off a dramatic 2-1 victory over Man City (which eliminated the two-time defending EPL champions from repeating this season) and then following that up with a 1-0 victory at Leicester City in the Quarterfinals of the FA Cup last Sunday. Sure enough, this young Blues team traveled on the road to face a counter-attacking Hammers team desperate for a victory as they fight to avoid relegation. Chelsea has still looked very good since the return to play last month with three wins in four matches. They remain very motivated to play well as they are in a dog fight to qualify for one of the four spots for next year’s Champions League. The Blues begin match week 33 in 4th place in the EPL table two points ahead of Manchester United and Wolverhampton. The underlying metrics love this team — while Chelsea sits in 4th place with 54 points, their expected points (xPTS) of 60.38 is 3rd best in the EPL. Those numbers would likely be even better since there without an injured Christian Pulisic for much of the season. The American appears to be the real deal — he leads the EPL in touches inside the box since the return to play last month. The Blues return home to Stamford Bridge where they are W8-D3-L5 this season. They have scored only 24 goals at home this year but the metrics suggest they have been unfortunate in that regard with an expected goals mark (xG) of 37.43. Chelsea’s xPTS at home jump to 37 with them averaging 2.34 xG and allowing just 0.74 xGA — and that +1.60 xG differential is the 2nd best home mark in the EPL this season. With Pulisic healthy and the Blues playing in a 4-3-3 formation that Frank Lampard shifted to midseason (which gets defender Marco Alonso on the pitch who is an effective player in their attack), Chelsea is one of the top teams in the league. Watford had been playing well after manager Javi Garcia was sacked for Nigel Pearson in early December. The Hornets responded by going W4-D2-L1 in their first eight matches under Pearson before things began to slide with them going W1-D1-L4 in their final six matches before the stoppage of play. Since the return, Watford is just W0-D1-L2 while scoring just two goals (with one of those goals being an own-goal by Southampton last Sunday). The Hornets are just listless on offense right now with little energy. Ismaila Carr displayed a glimpse of brilliance when Pearson was appointed but he has been mostly absent since the return to action. Watford simply may not be motivated to play out the string of matches after being quarantined for months — and they do not seem to be overly concerned about their impending relegation with them currently in 17th place by just one point over Bournemouth and Aston Villa. The Hornets have won only one match over their last ten matches while averaging just 1.22 xG. Now they go back on the road where they are W2-D4-L10 in their sixteen EPL matches while averaging just 1.00 xG in those matches. Watford has won only once in their last eight road league matches. The Hornets are not equipped to grind out a lower-scoring match either as they have allowed the 6th most goals in the league this year — and they are tied for allowing the 5th most goals when playing on the road. They have only one clean sheet in their last ten matches.

FINAL TAKE: Chelsea won the reverse fixture between these two teams back on November 2nd by a 2-1 score. With the Hornets out-of-form and with their motivation in question, an angry Blues team should bounce-back with a strong effort. 25* English Premier League NBC-Sports Network Match of the Year with the Chelsea (200198) minus the goal-line versus Watford (200197). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Bayern Munich (203002) minus the goal-line versus Bayer Leverkusen (203001). THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich reached the finals of the German Cup with their 2-1 victory over Eintracht Frankfurt back on June 10th. Bayer Leverkusen reached the finals of this tournament the day before when they defeated Saarbrucken by a 3-0 score. The 77th DFB-Pokal Cup will be played on a neutral field at Hertha Berlin’s Olympiastadion.

REASONS TO TAKE BAYERN MUNICH MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Bayern Munich may have become the best team in Europe once Hanso Flick was appointed manager of the team in early November. The Bavarians were underachieving in league play as they were perhaps a bit listless after seven straight Bundesliga titles. Flick made a few crucial adjustments that re-ignited this team. First, he deployed a 4-1-4-1 formation with a high press. Not only did this force more turnovers but the higher placed backline on the pitch served to force more suboptimal shots from their opponents. Flick also moved Joshua Kimmich from fullback up the pitch to a holding midfield position — and not only did this give more room to operate for this rising superstar but it opened up a starting slot for Phonzie at fullback with the Canadian thriving with the opportunity given his multiple skill set. It is a bounty of riches for this team with a reliable veteran at forward in Thomas Muller, a scoring machine as the attacker in Robert Lewandowski who has 49 goals in all competitions, and then a 19-year freak of an athlete in Alphonso Davies with the Canadian being the fastest player on the field. Bayern Munich easily went on to win their eighth straight Bundesliga title by 17 points and enter this match on a seventeen game winning streak. They won all ten of their matches in the return to play in May while scoring 29 times and conceding just seven goals. Bayer Leverkusen stumbled in the return to play in May as they only won five of their nine matches with three losses. They only outscored their nine opponents by +2 net goals while surrendering nine goals. Die Werkself controlled their own destiny to take one of the four qualifying slots for next fall’s Championship League — but a devastating 2-0 loss at home to a Hertha Berlin team going nowhere blew those chances. Bayer Leverkusen will have to again settle for playing in the Europa League — and that status may degrade their confidence in this match. Die Werkself finished 19 points below Bayern Munich. The weak link for this team is their defense — they allowed just the 8th fewest goals in the Bundesliga this season while dropping to 10th place for expected goals allowed (xGA) when playing away from home. The Bavarians are an offensive machine who scored 100 goals this season — and while the metrics (unsurprisingly) call for regression, their expected goals still amount to a whopping 92.85 figure.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two matches in the Bundesliga — but Bayern Munich won the last encounter between these two teams by a 4-2 score playing at Die Werkself’s Bay Arena. The Bavarians won their 19th DFB-Pokal Cup last year when they defeated RB Leipzig by a 3-0 score. Bayern Munich also has serious Champions League aspirations — so it will be all systems go for this juggernaut as they look to stay fresh for that competition next month while defending their German national championship crown. Bayer Leverkusen proved once again that they are not yet in the class of Borussia Dortmund, RB Leipzig, and this Bayern Munich organization after their disappointing finish. 25* Soccer ESPN2 Match of the Month with Bayern Munich (203002) minus the goal-line versus Bayer Leverkusen (203001). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200194) minus the goal-line versus Arsenal (200193). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W13-D13-L6) looks to continue their hot run following a 1-0 win at Aston Villa last Saturday. Arsenal (W11-D13-L8) has won their last two matches after they defeated Norwich City at home on Wednesday by a 4-0 score.

REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Wolves have won all three of their matches since the return to action with clean sheets in all three matches with a low 1.23 expected goals allowed combined mark in those contests. Wolverhampton stymies Big Scoring chances (defined as those opportunities with at least a 35% success rate). They lead the EPL by allowing just 24 non-penalty kick Big Chances this season and they have held their opponents to just 0.75 Big Chances per match since match week 25. Their recent improvement in their already outstanding defense has been the return of Willy Boly to their backline who has missed much of the season to injury. Overall, the Wolves have the lost expected goals allowed mark (xGA) in the EPL. They are also 5th in the league with 52 Big Chances (non-PK) of their own. Arsenal has held their last two opponents scoreless while scoring six times — but four of those goals could be accurately described as gifts by the opposition (including three bizarre goaltender flubs). The Gunners are 8th in the EPL table but the expected points projections (xPTS) drops them to 11th. Now they go back on the road where they have only won three times this year — and they have won only one of their seven matches on the road under new manager Mikel Arteta. They are being outscored in the xG projections on the road by a 1.18 xG to 1.76 xGA margin. Furthermore, Arsenal tends to start fast but fade at the end of their matches. They have a net expected goal differential (xGD) of -4.88 in the final 30 minutes of a match — and Wolverhampton has a +9.64 xGD mark in the final 30 minutes of their games. The Wolves have won all three of their matches since the return with goals scored in the second half.

FINAL TAKE: The reverse fixture between these two teams resulted in a 1-1 draw despite the Wolves generating 25 shots in their counter-attack against an undisciplined Arsenal side. This is a terrible situation for the Gunners as they are playing their fifth match on the road since the return to play over eighteen days. Wolverhampton has had an entire week off while Arsenal has played two more matches during that break. 20* EPL Arsenal-Wolverhampton NBC-Sports Network Special with the Wolverhampton (200194) minus the goal-line versus Arsenal (200193). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Manchester United (200186) minus the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200185). THE SITUATION: Manchester United (W14-D10-L8) remained unbeaten in their last fifteen matches across all competitions with their 3-0 victory at Brighton and Hove Albion on Tuesday. Bournemouth (W7-D6-L19) are winless in their last seven matches after they lost at home to Newcastle United on Wednesday by a 4-1 score.

REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER UNITED MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Bournemouth is simply a mess right now — and they look like they are resigned to accept relegation. They have lost all three of their matches since the return to action while scoring just one time and conceding seven goals. The Cherries have been an aggressive team under manager Eddie Howe which has spurred some exciting soccer for a midlevel team — if they win, it is usually because they outscore their opponent in higher-scoring contests. Yet Bournemouth has been tepid in their attack with just two shots on target in their last three matches and only one Big Chance with an estimated success rate of at least 35% (according to the deeper metrics) — that latter mark is tied for fewest in the EPL since the restart. The Cherries will still be without forward Callum Wilson who is serving his second game due to suspension. His mate up top in Joshua King is in a complete funk as he has been ineffective either due to a loss of confidence or a loss of spirit in this doomed season (or both). Bournemouth finds themselves tied with Aston Villa with the second-fewest points in the league. They are in the bottom-five in both expected goals (xG) and expected goals allowed (xGA). Frankly, the problems have manifested themselves long before the restart as they have managed to produce only 11 points since November. Now they go on the road where they have lost seven straight EPL matches with three of these contests being by at least two goals. Manchester United is one of the hottest teams in the EPL with a W3-D1-L0 mark in their four contests since last month’s return to play. The issue for the Red Devils is whether they will win this match by at least two goals. Since they acquired Portuguese midfielder Bruno Fernandes in the winter transfer window, Man United are unbeaten in all thirteen of his matches played with nine victories and nine clean sheets while scoring 31 goals and conceding just four goals. Fernandes has been just what the doctor ordered to provide cohesion in the middle of the field. The restart also afforded him the opportunity to begin playing with both midfielders Paul Pogba and forward Marcus Rashford who have spent much of the season injured. Suddenly, the Red Devils have a bounty of scoring talent. Fernandes and Pogba have combined for three goals and one assist since the return to play — and I have not even mentioned the hat trick Anthony Martial pulled off two matches ago against Sheffield United. But it is the play on defense that makes this Man United team so dangerous. The Red Devils have allowed only two goals while registering six clean sheets in their last eight matches in the EPL. Since match week 25, Man United is allowing only 1.0 Big Chances per match — and they have allowed both the fewest shots and the fewest Big Chances since the return to action last month. They return home to Old Trafford where they have won each of their last three matches by at least two goals with eight combined goals scored and none conceded over that stretch. The Red Devils have five straight clean sheets at home having not surrendered a goal at home since January 22nd. Their expected goals allowed (xGA) at home of 0.80 is 3rd best in the EPL. And they have scored 13 goals in their last four home matches.

FINAL TAKE: The cherry on top of this situation (pun intended) is that Man United will not be taking Bournemouth lightly after losing to them on the road in the reverse fixture between these two teams on November 2nd by a 1-0 score. Motivated by revenge and their pursuit of a top-four spot on the EPL table to ensure qualification for next fall’s Championship League, I think the chances of a 3-0 (or better) result are higher than a 1-0 (or 2-1) final score (and we can live with a 2-0/3-1 push). 10* EPL Saturday Morning Discounted Deal with Manchester United (200186) minus the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200185). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Mallorca (201941) and Atletico Madrid (201942). THE SITUATION: Mallorca (W8-D5-L20) snapped a two-game losing streak on Tuesday with their 5-1 victory over Celta de Vigo. Atletico Madrid (W15-D14-L4) remained unbeaten in their last thirteen matches across all competitions with their 2-2 draw at Barcelona last Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It was an offensive explosion for Mallorca with the last-place team in La Liga breaking a three-game losing streak with those five goals. They had scored just two goals in their first five matches since the return to action before scoring five times on just nine shots. The analytics indicate that Los Bermellones were rather fortunate to put up five goals considering that their expected goals (xG) for that match were just 1.69 xG. Now Mallorca goes back on the road where they are last in La Liga with just 5 points based on their W1-D2-L13 record this season. Los Bermellones have scored just 13 goals in those sixteen road matches. Mallorca has failed to score at least one goal in nine of their last ten losses. They will also be undermanned in this match with the biggest loss being their leading scorer in Ante Budimir who is suspended for this match due to yellow cards. Budimir has scored 12 of Mallorca’s 35 goals this season. Manager Vicente Moreno’s team still has plenty to play for with them occupying the final relegation spot in 18th place being five points shy of safety in 17th place. Moreno’s team is playing better on defense as of late as they have allowed eight combined goals over their last five matches with only one of these sides scoring more than two goals. Atletico Madrid is a dominant defensive team that has registered three clean sheets while allowing just four combined goals in their six matches since the return last month. Los Colchoneros have allowed only 25 goals this season which is 2nd best in La Liga — and they lead the league with the lowest expected goals allowed mark. Atletico Madrid is also tied for 2nd by conceding only 10 goals in their sixteen league matches at home. But Los Colchoneros have scored just 23 times in those sixteen home matches. Manager Diego Simeone is likely to sub a number of his key players who played in that showdown with Barcelona when now hosting this lightly regarded Mallorca team. Six of Los Colchoneros’ last ten home games resulted in them shutting out their opponent.

FINAL TAKE: Atletico Madrid won the reverse fixture between these two teams on the road by a 2-0 score. Four of the last five meetings between these two resulted in a game that finished Under 2.5 combined goals. Expect another lower-scoring match. 25* La Liga Friday beIN Sports Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Mallorca (201941) and Atletico Madrid (201942). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Getafe (201951) and Real Madrid (201952). THE SITUATION: Getafe (W14-D10-L8) snapped a five-game losing streak with their 2-1 win over Real Sociedad on Monday. Real Madrid (W21-D8-L3) has won all five of their matches since the return to action last month with their 1-0 win over Espanyol last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Getafe’s two goals on Monday almost eclipsed the three combined goals in their previous four matches. Manager Jose Bordalas has his team play a defense-first style of play supported by a sturdy backline led by center-back Djene. The Azulones have allowed just five goals in their five matches since the return to play. Getafe is 3rd in La Liga with fewest goals allowed — and they are surrendering just 1.13 expected goals per game. The Azulones are even stingier when playing on the road as the 15 goals they have allowed in fifteen league matches are tied for the second-fewest in the league. Getafe will likely park the proverbial bus against mighty Real Madrid — and Los Blancos are likely to be comfortable with that style of contest. Manager Zinedine Zidane is happy with his team playing pragmatically. Real Madrid has scored only five combined goals in their last three matches. But Los Blancos may have the best defensive team in all of Europe (we will learn more next month when the Champions League returns). Led by Sergio Ramos, Real Madrid’s backline does a very good job of conceding few chances. They have only allowed two goals since the return of play with three clean sheets in those five contests. Overall, they have surrendered just 21 goals this season which is the best number in La Liga. Eight of Los Blancos’ last eleven victories have been via a shutout — so a 1-0 or 2-0 final score is likely.

FINAL TAKE: Getafe will be looking to avenge a 3-0 loss at home to Real Madrid back on November 4th. The Azulones have not scored in their last three matches against Los Blancos. Expect another lower-scoring match. 10* La Liga Thursday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the match between Getafe (201951) and Real Madrid (201952). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Manchester City (200178) minus the goal-line versus Liverpool (200177). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W20-D3-L8) looks to bounce back from a 2-1 loss at Chelsea last Thursday in their most recent English Premier League match. Liverpool (W28-D2-L1) clinched the 2019-20 EPL championship with that loss from the Cityzens combined with their 4-0 victory at home against Crystal Palace last Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE MAN CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Liverpool may suffer an emotional letdown after winning the championship. While this team did not have the opportunity to hit every bar in London given COVID-19 social restrictions, the emotional intensity for this team may not be the same who now have nothing else to play for after being eliminated from the Champions League and FA Cup competitions earlier in the year. As it is, the Reds seemed to have let up a bit in their focus earlier in the year when their championship became considered inevitable. They dropped more points in a three-match string of games than they had in the previous thirty-eight EPL contests before defeating Crystal Palace last week. They also had been shutout in two of their previous three matches before scoring four goals against the Eagles. Now Liverpool goes back on the road where they are winless in their last four matches while losing three times. They have not scored a goal in their last four games — and their star attacker, Mo Salah, has scored only two of his 17 league goals away from their home pitch at Anfield. The Reds have 86 points — but the deeper expected goals metrics projects them with just 64.04 expected points (xPTS). Man City tops that mark with 68.97 xPTS. Man City did respond from their elimination from defending their two-straight EPL titles by defeating Newcastle United on Sunday by a 2-0 score. Yet manager Pep Guardiola should have his team razor-focused for this match. Throwing out their response to a 2-0 loss to Manchester United since COVID-19 delayed their next league match by three months, Guardiola has seen his team win all six of their next EPL matches after a loss while scoring 19 goals and conceding just one goal. They still have plenty to play for being alive in both the FA Cup and the Champions League. And while Sergio Aguero is out for this team, Gabriel Jesus is more than capable as the team’s striker in his absence after not playing in that match against the Blues. Aguero averages 0.74 expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes — but Jesus tops those numbers by average 0.77 xG per 90 minutes.

FINAL TAKE: Man City will have a chip on their shoulder having to watch the traditional Guard of Honour recognizing Liverpool’s championship on their home pitch. The Cityzens have won six of their last seven matches at home at Etihad Stadium while scoring 19 goals and allowing just four goals. And they will be looking to avenge a 3-1 loss at Liverpool back on November 10th. Look for Man City to stun the new champions. 10* EPL Thursday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Manchester City (200178) minus the goal-line versus Liverpool (200177). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Tottenham (200173) minus the goal-line versus Sheffield United (200174). THE SITUATION: Tottenham (W12-D9-L10) enters this match coming off a 2-0 win over West Ham last Tuesday. Sheffield United (W11-D11-L9) comes off a 2-1 loss at Arsenal in the FA Cup on Sunday that followed up a 3-0 loss last Wednesday at Manchester United in their last English Premier League contest.

REASONS TO TAKE TOTTENHAM MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Spurs match with the Hammers was the first time under manager Jose Mourinho where he had a full complement of the team’s best scoring options at his disposal. Harry Kane and Son Heung-Min have been injured for much of time since Mourinho took over in mid-November and Dele Alli was suspended for their 1-1 draw with Manchester United in their first match back from the March stoppage. A healthy Spurs’ side generated a potent 2.53 expected goals against West Ham pointing to the still elite potential of this team. Remember, it was just over a year ago that this Tottenham team was in the finals of the Champions League where they lost to Liverpool for the European Championship. The team seemed tired of manager Mauricio Pochettino’s message in the fall with their sluggish play which led to him being sacked amidst disagreements with management over the direction of the team. Mourinho has ditched Pochettino’s pressing approach for a counter-attacking style that may be better attuned for the injuries he was facing midseason before the stoppage of play in March. Limiting the Hammers to just 0.84 expected goals is encouraging as is their 1-1 draw with Man United last week with the Red Devils being one of the hottest teams in the EPL. The most encouraging aspect of this team may from the play of Kane last week as he scored a goal and played with more energy and vigor on the pitch than he has demonstrated in a long time. The three months off may have been just what the doctor ordered for the forward who has won two straight Golden Boots in the EPL. Sheffield United is scoreless in their last six league matches — and they have only scored once in their four matches in the return to play last month. They have allowed eight goals in their last three matches. Perhaps a visit from the Regression Gods was inevitable — while the Blades rank 8th in the EPL with 44 points, their expected points (xPTS) drops them to 13th with 39.97 points in those projected rankings. This has always been a defense-first club under manager Chris Wilder — but injuries and a busy schedule testing the depth of a promoted side have challenged this team. Their best defender in center back Jack O’Connell remains a doubt with his injury for this match and defensive midfielder John Lunstram only played 35 minutes on Sunday with an ankle injury that may keep him out for this contest. After holding their opponents to just 6.82 inside the box before the break, Sheffield United have allowed 10 shots in EPL play since the return to play. And the Blades are allowing 3 big chances representing scoring chances of a 35% or better success rate per match since the return as compared to the 1.89 big chances they were allowed before the break. Or, maybe their injuries and challenges of the thin backline are just excuses for those inevitable Regression Gods: Sheffield United has allowed only 31 goals this season which is 3rd best in the EPL — but their 42.88 xGA is just 8th best in the league.

FINAL TAKE: Sheffield United was an overachieving team this season that was benefiting from great cohesion. All that was spoiled by the stoppage of lay — and the Blades have not only regressed back to the mean in terms of their underlying metrics but their lack of depth and experience has them playing like the promoted team they were expected to be when they rejoined the EPL this season. These two teams settled with a 1-1 draw in November. But now Tottenham is much healthier under a new manager — and Sheffield United has not only played twice as many matches since the return risking fatigue with their limited depth but they are also playing their third match since the Spurs last took the pitch last Tuesday. 25* English Premier League Midweek NBC-Sports Network Match of the Year with the Tottenham (200173) minus the goal-line versus Sheffield United (200174). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Everton (200166) with the goal-line versus Leicester City (200165). THE SITUATION: Everton (W11-D8-L12) looks to build off their 1-0 win at Norwich City last Wednesday. Leicester City (W16-D7-L8) lost their FA Cup Quarterfinals match at home against Chelsea on Sunday by a 1-0 score after settling for a nil-nil draw at home against Brighton in their last English Premier League match last Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Leicester City was riding high after their first seventeen league matches where they had 39 points while generation 1.93 expected points (xG) and allowing just 1.05 expected points (xGA). But the Foxes have lost their mojo since that time as they have managed just 16 points over their last fourteen league matches. They have regressed on both sides of the pitch as they have averaged just 1.48 xG over that span while allowing 1.65 xGA. They have experienced a massive -1.04 expected goal differential drop over that span. What has happened? For starters, their talisman Jamie Vardy has not been himself as he got into a scoring funk that was exacerbated by missing a couple of matches to an injury. His big chances of scoring opportunities of 35% or higher have plummeted since his hot streak in the fall. This malaise has spread to the entire team that has seen its tenacity and pace decline. The Foxes are also not getting great play out of their midfielders — and they will be without James Maddison for this match. Leicester City has not scored in four of their last six league matches while averaging just 1.13 xG over those contests — and they were then shutout on Sunday by Chelsea. They have won only four times in their last fourteen EPL matches. Since the return to play this month, they have generated only 1.68 expected goals in both their EPL matches — and they lost the expected goals battle against two teams mired in the bottom-six of the table in Brighton and Watford. Not good, Bob. Perhaps what Leicester City is experiencing is simply a long-overdue visit from the Regression Gods. While they are 3rd in the league in the table, their expected points of 49.71 drop them to 6th best. Everton is unbeaten in their last seven EPL matches — and they probably deserved a win in their draw with Liverpool in their first game back from the break. This is a much-improved team under manager Carlo Ancelotti. They have generated 1.98 xG while holding their opponents to just 1.22 xGA with that xG differential being the 5th best in the league over that span. The Toffees are one of three EPL teams entering this match week that have yet to concede a big chance. They return home to Goodison Park where they have only scored 19 times — but their xG at home rises to 24.05 which strongly suggests they have experienced some tough luck. Everton plays very tough defense at home as they held their opponents to just 1.12 xGA on their home pitch — and they have also held the top half of the table to just 1.19 xGA at home this season. The Toffees are unbeaten at home under Ancelotti with three wins in those six matches while allowing just four combined goals. And in their last eight matches against non-Big Six sides under Ancelotti, Everton is beaten in those contests with six wins and a +7 net goal differential with 14 goals scored. The Toffees still have much to play for despite being in 12th place as they are just four points out of 7th place and the likely final spot to qualify for the Europa League next fall. Their 49.48 expected points (xPTS) are 7th best in the league a just behind Leicester City’s number.

FINAL TAKE: Everton will have revenge on their minds as well for this contest having lost three straight matches to the Foxes across all competitions. The Toffees lost the reverse fixture between these two teams on December 1st by a 2-1 score before then losing at Leicester City in the League Cup via penalty kicks after a 2-2 score back on December 18th. Manager Marco Silva was in charge of both those matches — so this is the Toffees' first opportunity to play the Foxes since Ancelotti took over the club. 25* EPL Midweek Match of the Year with the Everton (200166) with the goal-line versus Leicester City (200165). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester United (200153) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200154). THE SITUATION: Manchester United (W13-D10-L8) comes off a 3-0 victory over Sheffield United last Wednesday in their last match in the English Premier League. Brighton (W7-D12-L12) registered a nil-nil draw in their last match last Thursday at Leicester City.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Man United followed up their win over the Blades on Wednesday with a 2-1 victory at Norwich City in the Quarterfinals of the FA Cup on Saturday. Eight of the starters that played in that midweek match with Sheffield did not start o Saturday against the Canaries so manager Gunnar Solskjaer should have a relatively rested starting XI despite their busy schedule since the return to action this month. The Red Devils have scored five goals in their two EPL matches this month — and they have scored seven goals while allowing one goal in their three matches overall since the return. The Red Devils have been transformed with the winter transfer acquisition of Portuguese midfielder Bruno Fernandes as they have not lost since he put on their uniform. The stoppage of play also allowed this team to get healthy. Now Man United has seen forward Marcus Rashford and midfielder Paul Pogba on the pitch with Fernandes to make this starting XI loaded with talent. Forward Anthony Martial was the beneficiary last Wednesday as he scored a hat trick in the Red Devils’ 3-0 win against Sheffield United in EPL play. Martial, Rashford, and Pogba did not start on Saturday so they should all be fresh for this match. Man United is 2nd in the league since the restart in both big chances and expected goals. The Red Devils have also been outstanding on defense with five clean sheets in their last seven league matches. But while they have surrendered just two goals in their last seven EPL matches, their expected goals allowed (xGA) mark over those seven games rises to a 7.3 xGA mark which strongly suggests they have been very fortunate in not surrendering more goals. Furthermore, much of their defensive prowess has taken place at Old Trafford where they have resisted five straight clean sheets. Man United has allowed nineteen of their thirty goals when playing on the road this season in EPL action. Brighton has lost just once in their last seven matches in EPL play. They return home where they have scored in five of their last six matches. The Seagulls will be a confident group when playing at the Amex where they have already pulled off upsets against Tottenham, Everton, and Arsenal while earning draws with Chelsea and Wolverhampton. In their three home matches against Big Six sides, Brighton has scored six times. The Seagulls have scored 34 goals this season while conceding 41 goals — but the deeper metrics suggest that both those numbers are unexpectedly low given their expected goals mark of 40.80 (xG) and their expected goals allowed (xGA) figure of 45.82. Brighton still has plenty to play for being only six points safe from relegation. Manager Graham Potter will open up his team’s style of play if they fall behind to attempt to salvage at least one point with the draw. They have an expected goals mark of 1.53 when playing at home — and they allow their opponents to register 1.33 xGA when at home.

FINAL TAKE: Brighton are dangerous dogs in this match (which is why I am passing on the side play) — I expect them to score on this Man United team that is not as stingy when playing on the road. But the Red Devils are clicking on offense now with their best talent finally all healthy. Man United won the reverse fixture between these two teams when they won by a 3-1 score back on November 10th. But Brighton has won their last two opportunities to host the Red Devils where they have scored four combined goals. 25* EPL Tuesday NBC-Sports Network Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Manchester United (200153) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200154). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Getafe (201842) minus the goal-line versus Real Sociedad (201841). THE SITUATION: Getafe (W13-D10-L8) enters this match coming off a 1-1 draw at Valladolid last Tuesday. Real Sociedad (W14-D5-L12) has lost three straight matches after their 1-0 loss to Celta Vigo on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE GETAFE WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Real Sociedad is a young and vibrant team that was making a serious challenge to finish in the top-four in the La Liga this season which would qualify them for next year’s Champions League. But this team has struggled in the return to play this month as they have lost three of their four matches with just one draw keeping things from being completely dismal. We had La Real in that opening match at home against Osasuna where I endorsed a strong play on Real Sociedad given the underlying metrics for both teams along with the apparent mismatch for both teams with Osasuna not having much to play for in the return to play. But watching that match made it evident that La Real was simply not very motivated despite a rally from their 1-0 deficit to eke out the draw. There have been a handful of younger players across the European leagues who did not keep themselves in tip-top shape during quarantine who have then been slow to get back to game-shape. With Real Sociedad now on a three-game losing streak and seven points out of 4th place that would qualify them for the Champions League, the motivation for this team is in question moving forward. Injuries — or the lowered threshold of what is a debilitating injury — has made matters worse for this team. La Real will be without their captain Asier Illarramendi along with Ander Barrenetxea, Lucas Sangalli, and Ander Guevara are dealing with injuries that will likely keep them out for this match. And their key backline player in Diego Llorente is suspended for this match after receiving his second yellow card on Wednesday. This potential Champions League team is simply a shell of their best days pre-COVID. They have only scored two times in their four matches after being 3rd in the league in scoring before the stoppage in play. Now Real Sociedad goes back on the road where they are 8th in the La Liga with 20 points — but their expected points (xPTS) of 16.20 in their fifteen road matches are just 11th best in the league. Getafe is winless in their last five contests — but they have only lost once in their four matches since the return to action. The Azulones engage in an intense style that may have been difficult to reproduce without a set of friendlies before returning to league action after three months off. But every week that passes should help Getafe return to the form that keeps them in 5th place in La Liga just 5 points out of 4th place (and Champions League qualification) entering this match in the live standings. Getafe has only allowed four goals in their four matches since the return to play. They return home for this match where they have lost only three times in sixteen league matches — and those losses were against Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Atletico Madrid who are the top-three teams in the league. The Azulones have been a bit unfortunate at home with their 22 goals scored contrasting with their 28.12 expected goals (xG) at home which is 4th best in La Liga. They will also be without their best defender in center back Djene Dakonam who was suspended for this match after being dealt his second yellow card on Tuesday. But the Azulones have a bit more to play for at this point of the season — and they have one extra day of rest while being in better form than La Real.

FINAL TAKE: Getafe won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 21- score on the road. Getafe has won five of the last six meetings between these two teams — look for them to continue their dominance in this rivalry. 25* La Liga Monday beIN Sports Network Match of the Year with Getafe (201842) minus the goal-line versus Real Sociedad (201841). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Burnley (200149) and Crystal Palace (200150). THE SITUATION: Burnley (W12-D6-L13) rebounded from a 5-0 loss at Manchester City in their return to action this month with a 1-0 win over Watford on Thursday. Crystal Palace (W11-D9-L11) saw their four-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday with a 4-0 loss at Liverpool.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Burnley found their defensive acumen again on Thursday by limiting the Hornets to just 0.84 expected goals in that match. The Clarets are second in league with twelve clean sheets behind their underrated keeper Nick Pope. Burnley will have to lean again on their defensive cohesion in this game. Manager Sean Dyche is saddled with a host of injuries in their attack with forwards Chris Wood and Ashley Barnes out and Jay Rodriguez questionable with a knock after he scored Burnley’s lone goal since the return to action on Thursday. The Clarets have scored only fourteen goals in their fifteen matches on the road this season. But they have allowed only sixteen goals in their twenty matches against non-Big Six sides this season for a microscopic 0.80 goals-per-game opponent scoring average. Crystal Palace had registered four straight clean sheets in EPL action before Liverpool dialed up four goals on Wednesday. The Eagles also play a defensive-oriented style for manager Roy Hodgson where things can get rough if they fall behind by more than one goal. It was apparent that is was going to be a long day for Hodgson when star midfielder Wilfried Zaha limped off the field with an injury that likely leaves him out for this match. Crystal Palace only managed three shots against the Reds with none inside the box for a microscopic 0.09 expected goals mark. It has now been thirty-one straight EPL matches where the Eagles did not score more than two goals. They have scored only twenty goals in their twenty-two matches against non-Big Six sides — but they have given up its sixteen goals in those contests. They return home where they are last in the EPL with just twelve goals — but they have surrendered only thirteen goals which were tied for the second-lowest home mark to begin this match week 31. Furthermore, in their twelve home games against non-Big Six sides, the Eagles have scored only ten goals while allowing just eight goals for 0.83-0.67 average scoring marks.

FINAL TAKE: Crystal Palace has won the last four meetings between these two teams while surrendering just one time after their 2-0 win in the reverse fixture back on November 30th. There is a good chance that at least one of these teams fails to score in this contest. 10* EPL Monday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the match between Burnley (200149) and Crystal Palace (200150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Manchester City (200413) and Newcastle United (200414). THE SITUATION: The Football Association Challenge Cup for men’s domestic soccer in England is the oldest soccer competition in the world. Manchester City reached the Quarterfinals of the FA Cup on March 4th when they defeated Sheffield Wednesday by a 1-0 score. Newcastle United punched their Quarterfinals ticket on March 3rd when they defeated West Brom on the road by a 3-2 score.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Man City will be playing their first match since officially being eliminated from defending their two-time English Premier League championship with their 2-1 loss at Chelsea on Thursday. Those are the only two goals that the Citizens have allowed in their three matches since the return of play this month. Man City leads the EPL by allowing just 1.01 expected goals per game this season — and their defense is much better with a healthy Aymeric LaPorte at center back leading their backline. In the seven games LaPorte has played this season (before the return to play this month), the Citizens allowed a stingy 0.43 goals-per-game as compared to their 1.14 defense Goals-Per-Game average in their other twenty-one contests. And while Man City allowed 5.7 shots per match in the box along with 1.6 Big Chances per match before the return to play, those numbers fell to just 4 shots per match in the box along with just 1.2 Big Chances allowed per game with LaPorte healthy and playing. With holding-midfielder Fernandinho suspended for this match after being issued a red card in that game with Chelsea on Thursday, I expect LaPorte to be in the starting XI this afternoon. Manager Pep Guardiola will likely choose his best players for this match with FA Cup and Champions League championships in August still goals this season. But Man City will be without their best attacking forward in Sergio Aguero who suffered an injury last week that may keep him out for the rest of the EPL season. While Gabriel Jesus is a capable replacement at forward after being rested in that Chelsea match, it is Aguero that is the straw that stirs the drink. Newcastle is playing very effective compact soccer right now. They registered their third clean sheet over their last four matches with the only goal being surrendered over that span being on Wednesday in their 1-1 draw at home versus Aston Villa. The Magpies are particularly stingy when play at home in St. James Park where they have allowed only 13 goals in sixteen English Premier League matches which are tied for the second-lowest mark in the EPL. With all eight teams competing in the Quarterfinals of the FA Cup being from the EPL, I am comfortable using those statistics in handicapping these contests. The concern for this Newcastle United team is that their ambition on offense can stagnate. They registered a low 0.79 expected goals against a suspect Aston Villa defense on Wednesday while failing to generate even one big scoring chance of at least a 35% probability of success rate. The Magpies are averaging just 1.07 expected goals per game in the EPL which is second-to-last. Newcastle has scored only 16 goals at home this year which is the second-fewest in the EPL — and that is matched by their expected goal projection at home which is also 19th in the league. 

FINAL TAKE: But manager Steve Bruce is content to grind out lower scoring matches on his home pitch. In their four home games against a big six side in the EPL this season, Newcastle has won two of these matches (while taking one point with a draw in a third game) while seeing only seven combined goals scored. 25* FA Cup Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Manchester City (200413) and Newcastle United (200414). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Southampton (200145) and Watford (200146). THE SITUATION: Southampton (W11-D4-L16) has lost three of their last four matches with their 2-0 loss at home to Arsenal on Thursday. Watford (W6-D10-L15) looks to rebound from a 1-0 loss at Burnley on Thursday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Southampton has seen five combined goals in their first two matches since the return to action this month as they began with a 3-0 victory at Norwich City. The Saints have played better under manager Ralph Hasenhuttl after hitting rock bottom in a 9-0 loss to Leicester City. Hasenhuttl doubled-down on his high-press aggressive style of play which has helped generate scoring chances. Southampton is averaging 1.59 expected goals per match this season — and they have the 7th best expected goals mark when playing on the road. But this approach does make them vulnerable on their back end. The Saints are allowing 2.42 big scoring chances with an expected success rate of at least 35% which is the 4th highest mark in the EPL. Their challenge on defense in this match is heightened with starting defensive back Jack Stephens suspended for this match after receiving a red card in that match against the Gunners on Thursday. Southampton is averaging 1.66 expected goals (xG) when playing on the road — but they are allowing 1.79 expected goals (xGA) in these fifteen road contests. The Saints have scored at least one goal in seventeen of their last eighteen road matches — and they have scored at least two goals in six of their last eight games away from home. Watford has only seen three combined goals in their first two matches since the return to action. But they return home to Vicarage Road where they are average 1.80 xG per match which is 8th best in the EPL. The Hornets have scored in seven of their last eight matches at home. But they are also allowing their opponents to average 1.51 xGA in their fifteen home matches. Additionally, Watford has only generated just one clean sheet in their last nine matches.

FINAL TAKE: Watford has seen an average of 3.03 combined expected goals scored in their fifteen matches at home. 60% of their home games have finished Over the Total. Southampton is averaging 3.04 combined expected goals per match in their fifteen road games. 67% of those matches have finished Over 2.5 goals — and they have seen eight of their last ten road matches finished Over 2.5 goals. 25* EPL Sunday NBC-Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Southampton (200145) and Watford (200146). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Manchester United (200401) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (200402). THE SITUATION: The Football Association Challenge Cup for men’s domestic soccer in England is the oldest soccer competition in the world. Manchester United reached the Quarterfinals of this event back on March 5th when they defeated Derby County on the road by a 3-0 score. Norwich City reached the Quarterfinals of the FA Cup the day before on March 4th when they upset Tottenham via penalty kicks after a 1-1 score.

REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER UNITED MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The big six powers in the English Premier League tend to rotate players for these FA Cup matches with this competition not as prestigious as the English Premier League and the Champions League. But Gunnar Solskjaer has never won a championship as a manager so he may be keener to produce a lineup that will lead to victory in this match. At the very least, Solskjaer will likely call on his big guns if his team does not have a lead in the second half. And he certainly has the benefit of a deeper bench than what this Norwich City team has available to them as the last-place team in the EPL. Man United is unbeaten in their last thirteen matches with nine victories over that span. The Red Devils have been transformed with the winter transfer acquisition of Portuguese midfielder Bruno Fernandes as they have not lost since he put on their uniform. The stoppage of play also allowed this team to get healthy. Now Man United has seen forward Marcus Rashford and midfielder Paul Pogba on the pitch with Fernandes to make this starting XI loaded with talent. Forward Anthony Martial was the beneficiary on Wednesday as he scored a hat trick in the Red Devils’ 3-0 win against Sheffield United in EPL play. Man United is 2nd in the league since the restart in both big chances and expected goals. But it is the play on defense that has made the biggest difference for Solskjaer’s side. The Red Devils have registered clean sheets in six of their last eight matches across all competitions. And they are just one of three teams to not allow even one big chance since the EPL returned to action this month. They go on the road for this match but they are averaging over 2.0 expected goals away from home in league play — and they are unbeaten in their last seven matches on the road in the EPL. While this is technically not an English Premier League match, I am comfortable looking at that data when assessing how they will perform against another EPL team. Norwich City is in deep trouble to be relegating as they are six points behind the three-way tie for 19th place in the EPL. They have managed only 8 points in their last eleven matches where they have won just one match. The Canaries have lost both their matches since the return to play while failing to score and allowing four goals. Norwich City is struggling on both sides of the pitch. They have been held scoreless in six of their last seven matches — and they scored just one time in that one game where they were not blanked. The Canaries have the worst attack in the EPL — and they have only managed two shots on target in their two matches since the return to play. They have also allowed a whopping 21 shots inside the box in their two matches this month — and they are last in the EPL in expected goals allowed.

FINAL TAKE: Man United swept the two EPL matches between these two sides this season as they followed up a 3-1 win at Carrow Road in October with a 4-0 win at home at Old Trafford on January 11th. While rotation risks exist with the Red Devils for this match, keep in mind that they play five straight matches against teams in the bottom seven in the EPL starting with this contest so Solskjaer may feel comfortable playing some of his key players to make sure his team advances to the Semifinals. And because Norwich City will be playing with abandon in this elimination contest, a Red Devils route is very possible. 25* FA Cup Match of the Month with the Manchester United (200401) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (200402). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200141) minus the goal-line versus Aston Villa (200142). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W12-D13-L6) is unbeaten in their two matches since the return to play this month after they defeated Bournemouth on Wednesday by a 1-0 score. Aston Villa (W7-D6-L18) looks to build off a 1-1 draw at Newcastle United on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Wolves are playing outstanding soccer right now as they are unbeaten in their last five EPL matches with four victories. They have scored nine goals in those five matches while conceding just two goals. Manager Nuno Espirito Santo’s team is playing suffocating defense with six clean sheets in their last seven league matches. They have held their two opponents since the return to just 0.40 combined expected goals allowed after limiting a solid Cherries’ attack to just 0.13 expected goals allowed (xGA). Wolverhampton is significantly better — and more confident — in thwarting their opponent’s attack when Willy Boly is healthy and on the pitch. In their fifteen EPL matches with Boly, they are allowing just 0.50 goals-per-game with nine clean sheets while allowing 1.20 big chances per game and 6.80 shots inside the box per game. Those numbers all compare favorably versus sixteen league matches without Boly where they are allowing 1.60 goals-per-game with just one clean sheet while allowing 1.62 big chances per match and 6.87 shots inside the box per game. Overall, Wolverhampton leads the EPL by allowing only 24 big chances all season. The Wolves are a balanced team — they are also 4th in the league with 52 big chances on offense. These strong fundamentals help explain why they have won the expected goals battle in twenty-four of their thirty-one league matches. They are unbeaten in their last four EPL matches on the road with three victories. They are 4th in the league with 24 points on the road — and they rank 3rd in expected points (xPTS) when playing away from home. With Wolverhampton tied with Manchester United for 5th place in the EPL table, they are very motivated to keep playing well to qualify for one of the four spots for next fall’s Champions League (with Man City’s eligibility still up in the air). Aston Villa is tied for second-to-last in the EPL table having gone winless in their last seven matches with five losses. They have only scored twice in their three matches since the return to play this month. On paper, it appears as if the Villans have significantly improved their play on defense with manager Dean Smith using the stoppage of play to adjust his defensive tactics. Smith had to do something — his team had allowed the most shots inside the box through twenty-nine game weeks since the EPL starting measuring that data. But the Villans have also benefited from a relatively weak returning schedule facing a Magpies team this week that is second-to-last in scoring in the EPL along with a rusty Chelsea side, and an undermanned Sheffield United group that leans heavily on their defensive play. Aston Villa remains desperate for points — so they will play more aggressively if and when they fall behind in this match. The Villans have not registered a clean sheet in eleven straight matches. They are winless in their last nineteen matches in English top-flight in the top-six of the standings in the time of the match — and they have lost seventeen of these contests including their last thirteen.

FINAL TAKE: Wolverhampton won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 2-1 score back on November 10th. With seven days off before their next contest, Nuno can comfortably play his best starting XI. Don’t get worried if the Wolves lack a lead at halftime as they have outscored their opponents in the second half by a whopping 32-10 margin. And they have allowed only one goal in the EPL this season after taking a one-goal lead. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with the Wolverhampton (200141) minus the goal-line versus Aston Villa (200142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Sevilla (201874) minus the goal-line versus Valladolid (201873). THE SITUATION: Sevilla (W14-D11-L6) is unbeaten in their last eight matches after their 2-2 draw with Villarreal on Monday. Real Valladolid (W7-D13-L11) also comes off gaining a point in the La Liga table with their 1-1 draw at home to Getafe on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE SEVILLA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Sevilla entered Matchweek 32 in the Spanish top-flight four points above the 5th place team with the top four teams in the league qualifying for next year’s Championship League. Manager Julen Lopetegui rested a handful of his key players in that match to begin the week including leading scorer Lucas Ocampos — so Los Nervionenses should be primed for a big effort in this match. Sevilla is a very consistent team that has scored in twenty-two straight matches in La Liga play. They also have generated the fourth most clean sheets in the league this year. They have allowed only three goals in their four matches since the return to action — and they have only allowed one opponent to produce an expected goal rate of over 1.0 xG in those four contests. Los Nervionsenses have also generated 5.28 expected goals on offense since the return to play which is the 5th most of all the teams in La Liga. This quality play on both sides of the pitch is one of the reasons why Sevilla has only lost two matches in their last twelve league contests. They stay at home at Estadio Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan where they are W7-D6-L2 this season. Real Valladolid has won just once in their last six contests in league play. They have only scored three goals in their four matches since the return to action this month. This Pucela team is last in La Liga in creating scoring chances. Motivation may be an issue for this team as they rank 15th in the standings while being 8 points clear of the relegation zone. But the deeper metrics suggest that Real Valladolid are overachieving as their expected points (xPTS) drops them to second-to-last in the league. Now this team goes back on the road where they are tied for 9th place in points — but their xPTS drops to just 17th in the league when playing away from home. This team is undermanned in this match with defenseman Pedro Porro and forward Sandro Ramirez dealing with injuries.

FINAL TAKE: Sevilla won the reverse fixture between these two teams on the road by a 1-0 score. Look for Los Nervionenses to register another victory against Real Valladolid who does not have much to play for at this point of the season. 10* La Liga Friday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Sevilla (201874) minus the goal-line versus Valladolid (201873). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200137) and Chelsea (200138). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W20-D3-L7) has won four of their last five matches after they defeated Burnley on Monday by a 5-0 score. Chelsea (W15-D6-L9) won their first game in their return to the pitch on Sunday with their 2-1 win at Aston Villa.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Man City has scored eight goals in their two matches this month. While they lost their striker Sergio Aguero for, at least, a few weeks with a knee injury he suffered in that match, manager Pep Guardiola has an embarrassment of riches with options to replace him on the pitch. Forward Gabriel Jesus gets plenty of action as the lead striker for this team -- but do not be surprised if Guardiola moves Raheem Sterling to the number nine spot atop the field — that is the position Sterling plays for the English National team. The Citizens lead the EPL with the most goals scored — and they also lead the EPL by averaging 2.62 expected goals (xG) per match. Now Man City goes back on the road where they are generating 2.53 xG per game — but they are vulnerable in back as they allow 1.21 xGA in their fifteen league matches on the road. The Citizens are better on defense with a healthy Aymeric LaPorte healthy and playing at center back — but they have still allowed their opponents to see 14% of their non-penalty scoring chances represent “big chances” with at least a 35% expected success rate. Chelsea was lethargic on offense on Sunday until Christian Pulisic and Ross Barkley took the pitch as substitutes in the second half. They jump-started the Blues offense with Pulisic evening the score with the Villans in the 60th minute before Olivier Giroud scored the game-winner two minutes later. Chelsea returns home to Stamford Bridge where they are scoring just 1.47 goals-per-game as compared to the 2.07 goals-per-game they are averaging on the road. But the Blues have suffered some hard luck at home because they have an xG of 2.33 at home which is better than the 1.61 xG they have on the road. Chelsea will be without one of their starting defenders for this match with Fikayo Tomori out with an injury. The defense is the weak-link for manager Frank Lampard’s team — the 40 goals they have allowed this season is more than the 39 goals they allowed all of last season.

FINAL TAKE: Pulisic has been injured for much of the season — but the American is the real deal despite him warranting some initial skepticism as just a product of the US media hype machine. The Blues are already an aggressive team that deploys a press to put their young talent in positions to succeed — and that approach is bolstered when left-back Marcos Alonso is starting (as he is in this one). Chelsea’s attack is even better with Pulisic in the middle of the field. Man City is a juggernaut — but the Blues should be competitive. Look for, at least, a 2-1 result. 10* EPL Thursday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200137) and Chelsea (200138). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Real Madrid (201830) minus the goal-line versus Mallorca (201829). THE SITUATION: Real Madrid (W19-D8-L3) has won all three of their matches since the return to action earlier this month with their 2-1 win at Real Sociedad on Sunday. Mallorca (W7-D5-L18) looks to build off a 1-1 draw at home over Leganes on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE REAL MADRID MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Los Blancos now control their destiny to win the La Liga championship with Barcelona suffering a draw this month. Real Madrid is three points behind Barca entering this match but control the potential tie-breaker between these two teams if both win out courtesy of their victory in the latest rendition of El Classico earlier this year before the stoppage of play. Real Madrid has scored eight goals in their three matches this month while conceding just twice. They return home where they are W11-D4-L0 will scoring 33 goals and conceding just 10 times. Mallorca has scored just once in their three matches this month while allowing six goals in what has included two losses. They were fortunate to escape with a draw on Friday considering that they lost the expected goals battle to Leganes by a 1.32-0.38 xG margin. The Balearic Islanders have been much better at home where they are now W6-D3-L7 — but now they go back on the road where they are just W1-D2-L11. Those 5 points away from home are the fewest in La Liga — and they are also last in the league in expected points on the road.

FINAL TAKE: A blowout is likely for Real Madrid. Six of their last ten victories have been by at least two goals. And there is little chance that manager Zinedine Zidane’s side will take Mallorca lightly considering that one of three losses this season was on the road at Estadi de Sonmoix. 20* La Liga Mallorca-Real Madrid beIN Sports Special with Real Madrid (201830) minus the goal-line versus Mallorca (201829). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200110) minus the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200109). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W11-D13-L6) returned the pitch on Saturday with their 2-0 win at West Ham. Bournemouth (W7-D6-L17) looks to bounce back from a 2-0 loss at Crystal Palace on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Bournemouth is in serious trouble to be one of the three relegated teams as they are currently tied for that spot in the EPL table with just 27 points. Manager Eddie Howe’s team lacked much ambition in the return to action on Saturday as they maned just 0.55 expected goals in their shutout loss to the Eagles. Over their last five matches, the Cherries have lost four of these contests with one draw while scoring just four times. But the defense has been even worse for Bournemouth as they have allowed at least two goals in each of those four matches while allowing 11 goals overall. Furthermore, in their last nineteen matches in the EPL, the Cherries are allowing 1.93 expected goals (xGA). They have not earned a clean sheet in league play in their last thirteen matches while conceding 25 goals during that span. Defense has usually been an issue under Howe whose attacking frenetic style leaves his team vulnerable. Bournemouth has stayed afloat in the EPL by scoring plenty of goals — which is why their scoring slump now is a significant cause for concern. They are averaging just 1.17 expected goals (xG) in their last nineteen EPL matches. Now they go back on the road where they have lost twenty-four of their last thirty-four matches in EPL play since the start of last season. Forward Joshua King did not look mentally prepared to return to play in that match — and he is now questionable with a knock for this match. Wolverhampton is undefeated in their last six matches with three victories and five clean sheets in that span. The Wolves have plenty to play for being tied with Manchester United for 5th place in the EPL table. They have registered three straight clean sheets when playing at home where they are now allowing only 1.06 xGA per match. Wolverhampton leads the EPL by allowing just 24 big chances on defense this season. They also feast against the bottom teams in the league as they have won five of their six opportunities to host a team in the lower half of the league while scoring 16 times and allowing just four goals.

FINAL TAKE: Wolverhampton won the reverse fixture on the road back on November 23rd by a 2-1 score. With Bournemouth looking mentally checked out this season, look for the Wolves to dominate this match. 25* EPL Midweek Match of the Month with the Wolverhampton (200110) minus the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200109). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Manchester United (200122) minus the goal-line versus Sheffield United (200121). THE SITUATION: Manchester United (W12-D10-L8) returned to the pitch last Friday with their 1-1 draw at Tottenham. Sheffield United (W11-D11-L8) looks to bounce back from a 3-0 loss at Newcastle United.

REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER UNITED MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Man United is unbeaten in their last twelve matches with eight victories. The team has been jumpstarted with the winter transfer acquisition of Portuguese midfielder Bruno Fernandes who has scored nine teams across all competitions with the Red Devils not losing a match since he put on the red jersey for this franchise. Man United should have earned the 3 points with a win over the Spurs last Friday as they won the expected goals battle by a 1.69-0.47 xG margin. The Red Devils have been ravaged by injuries this season but they are as healthy as they have been al season with both Marcus Rashford and now Paul Pogba back on the pitch. Pogba came off the bench on Friday and the team looked electric on offense with him joining Fernandes in the middle of the field. Man United returns home to Old Trafford where they are averaging 1.98 xG this season while holding their opponents to 1.14 xGA. The Red Devils have allowed only three goals in their five home matches against a non-Big Six side. Sheffield United looks to have lost all their mojo after being unbeaten in six straight matches before the stoppage of play. The Blades’ lack of depth of defense was exposed in that match with the Magpies after center back John Egan was called for a red card in the 50th minute of that match. They were already missing their other starting center back in Jack O’Connell — and Sheffield United then conceded three goals in a 23-minute stretch to get dominated in that match last Sunday. Egan is suspended for this match while O’Connell remains a doubt for this match. To compound matters, the Blades cannot play their star goaltender Dean Henderson since he is on loan from his parent club which is Man United. That leaves Sheffield United undermanned at their strength which is their defense. The Blades have not done much on offense either with just 12 combined shots in their two matches since the return along with a mere 0.80 combined expected goals in those games.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a 3-3 draw in the reverse fixture on November 24th. Man United has dominated Sheffield United when playing at home with seven straight victories where they have scored 17 times while allowing just two goals. 20* EPL Sheffield United-Man United NBC Sports Network Special with the Manchester United (200122) minus the goal-line versus Sheffield United (200121). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Everton (20013) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (20014). THE SITUATION: Everton (W10-D8-L12) comes off an impressive nil-nil draw at home against Liverpool on Sunday. Norwich City (W5-D6-L19) looks to rebound from a 3-0 loss to Southampton. 


REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Toffees will be looking to register their first victory in their last five matches in this contest. They deserved to defeat the inevitable EPL champions this season on Sunday as they won the expected goals battle by a 1.13-0.73 mark. This team has been much better under new manager Carlo Ancelotti who replaces Marco Silva in late December. The three-time Champions League winner as the skipper for Real Madrid and AC Milan has pushed the right buttons to get more out of the talent that exists on this roster. Since he took over, Everton has averaged 2.08 expected goals (xG) while allowing just 1.29 xGA which is 5th best in the EPL over that span. Perhaps Ancelotti’s biggest contribution has been to unleash the potential of forward Dominic Calvert-Lewin who was the only player in the league to generate at least one big chance in eight straight matches before the stoppage of play. This team goes back on the road where they are averaging an impressive 2.11 xG in their last five matches. Norwich City has lost five of its last seven matches. Even worse for this team seemingly destined for relegation as they have managed only 8 points in their last ten matches with just 11.2 expected goals in this matches while allowing 18.81 expected goals during that span. The Canaries have been shut out in five of their last six matches while scoring just one goal in those games. Norwich City hosts this match where they are allowing 2.02 xGA per match. in their twenty-one matches against teams outside the Big Six, they have lost thirteen of these matches while conceding 32 times and scoring just 13 goals.

FINAL TAKE: Everton will be motivated to avenge a 2-0 loss at home to the Canaries back on November 23rd. That match was about a month before Ancelotti replaced Silva. Look for the Toffees who are in much better form to overwhelm a Norwich City in the last place and likely headed back to the English Champions League in the fall. 20* EPL Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Everton (20013) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (20014). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Granada CF (201801) plus the goal-line versus Leganes (201802). THE SITUATION: Granada CF (W12-D6-L12) suffered their first loss in their last seven matches with their 1-0 loss at home to Real Villarreal on Friday. Leganes (W5-D9-L16) comes off a 1-1 draw at Mallorca on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE GRANADA CF PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: At first glance, Leganes appears to be the sharp play in this contest. With them tied for last place in the La Liga standings with just 24 goals, they are desperate for the three points a victory would produce in this contest with them currently five points behind safety from relegation. Los Pepineros are 14th in the table in expected points (xPTS) with 35.78 — so the deeper metrics think this team should be safe from demotion to the second tier Spanish professional league in the fall. But the team on the pitch this afternoon will not have three of the key players that helped produce those encouraging analytics. The Cucumber Growers lost two of their best forwards in the winter transfer period with Youssef En-Nesyri being sold to Sevilla and Martin Braithwaite transferring to Barcelona. Those two players accounted for almost half the team’s goals when they departed. Argentinian Alexander Szymanowski slid into the attacking role with their departures — but he will be out for this match with an injury. As it is, Leganes is last in the La Liga with just 23 goals scored — and they are second-to-last in expected goals (xG) scored. Their 14 goals at home are also second-to-last in the league along with their xG at home of just 15.82 which is also 19th. The Cucumber Growers have scored just five goals in their last eight matches — and they have scored only seven goals in the last eleven games. Furthermore, they have scored only two goals in their three matches since the return to play while conceding five times. They have only won once in their last eight matches. Granada is W1-D1-L1 in their three matches since the return to play. They are dealing with a host of injuries themselves — but they remain motivated to get a victory in this match with them being just five points out of 7th place and the final qualifying spot for next year’s Europa League. El Grana can struggle against the top teams in the league — but they do feast on the bottom teams especially when playing on the road. Granada has only generated one point in their eight matches on the road against one of the top-ten teams in La Liga. However, they have produced 12 points in seven matches against teams in the bottom half of the league when playing on the road. And while they have allowed the 5th most goals when playing on the road, the expected goals they should have allowed in those road matches are 6th best in La Liga.

FINAL TAKE: Granada won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 1-0 score back on September 28th. Granada has a very good chance to win this match — and a draw is likely their worst result against an opponent that lacks reliable scoring threats. 10* La Liga Monday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Granada CF (201801) plus the goal-line versus Leganes (201802). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Burnley (200025) and Manchester City (200026). THE SITUATION: Burnley (W11-D6-L12) was unbeaten in their last seven matches before the stoppage of play after their 1-1 draw at home with Tottenham. Manchester City (W19-D3-L7) comes off a 3-0 win at home on Wednesday over Arsenal in their return to the pitch.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Citizens’ victory over the Gunners was their third clean sheet in their last four matches in the English Premier League — and they have played six straight matches in EPL action where one of the teams was shut out. Man City suffocated the Arsenal attack on Wednesday as they allowed only three shots with none on target. Pep Guardiola’s team is much better with center back Aymeric LaPorte on the pitch after he missed much of the season with an injury. Before Wednesday’s match, in the seven games LaPorte has played this season, the Citizens allowed a stingy 0.43 goals-per-game as compared to their 1.14 defense Goals-Per-Game average in their other twenty-one contests. And while Man City allowed 5.7 shots per match in the box along with 1.6 Big Chances per match before the return to play this week, those numbers fall to just 4 shots per match in the box along with just 1.2 Big Chances allowed per game with LaPorte healthy and playing. Man City scored three goals against Arsenal but keep in mind that two of those goals were scored with a man advantage after the Gunners’ defenseman, David Luiz, was whistled for a red card. The Citizens struggled early to get their offense going in that match as they managed only two shots while posting a minuscule 0.13 expected goals mark in the first 30 minutes of that match. Forward Sergio Aguero did not start in that match so he is likely to be one of the starters up top for the two-time defending champions for this match — but who knows what will happen with Pep roulette with the remaining starting XI. Don’t be surprised if Raheem Sterling and/or Kevin DeBruyne does not start in this match. With Liverpool all but clinched the EPL title this season, the goal for Guardiola and this team is to slowly get his team in shape and form for a Champions League run in August which is the only championship to elude this team over their fantastic run in the last few seasons. Man City has the allowed only 12 goals in the EPL when playing at home in the Etihad while also leading the league in the fewest expected goals allowed (xGA). They have produced six clean sheets in their fourteen home matches at home. And in their ten home games against teams outside the traditional big six EPL clubs, Man City has surrendered just seven goals. Burnley will be significantly undermanned at forward with both Chris Wood and Ashley Barnes out with injuries for this match. Wood and Barnes are the Clarets’ two leading scorers with seventeen combined goals which account for half of the team’s 34 goals on the season. As it is when at full strength, Burnley has scored only seven goals in their ten matches against the traditional big six sides in the EPL. Expect manager Sean Dyche has his team park the proverbial bus to stymie the Man City attack in this match. Dyche would be ecstatic with a nil-nil draw. The Clarets have allowed at least three goals in only six of their twenty-nine matches — and they have given up more than three goals in just three of those games. When Burnley is playing in a defensive 4-4-2 formation, they enjoy a positive net expected goal differential of +4.85 (xGD) so they are comfortable with this approach. Defense has led the way for the Clarets’ good form before the stoppage of play. Burnley has allowed only one goal in the last three matches while giving up just two combined goals over their last six matches. But the Clarets have scored just four times in their last six matches.

FINAL TAKE: Burnley will be looking to avenge a 4-1 loss at home to Man City in the reverse fixture on December 3rd. The Citizens have allowed only two goals in their last five opportunities to host the Clarets in Etihad Stadium. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Burnley (200025) and Manchester City (200026). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Everton (200046) plus the goal-line versus Liverpool (200045). THE SITUATION: Everton (W10-D7-L12) is winless in their last three matches after suffering an embarrassing 4-0 loss at Chelsea in their last match back on March 8th. Liverpool (W27-D1-L1) returns to the pitch after a 2-1 win over Bournemouth back on March 7th.

REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: I question the motivation of this Liverpool team returning from the three-month hiatus with little to play for. The Reds are a commanding 22 points up in 1st place in the EPL table so their championship is all but guaranteed. Liverpool was also eliminated already in the Champions League in a loss in the Round of 16 to Real Madrid so manager Jurgen Klopp does not have any expectations for his squad to prepare for an August run to defend their European championship. It has been a magical twelve or so months for the Reds — but it is probably impossible for them to continue to play at the incredible level that they had enjoyed. While they have 82 points in the EPL this season, the deeper metrics suggest that they should have only earned 59.61 expected points (xPTS) which is a dramatic dropoff (and below Manchester City’s xPTS mark). They have outscored their opponents by +45 goals this year in league play — but their expected goals differential drops to +32.34 (xGD). Cracks in their armor were showing before the stoppage in play. After the disappointing loss to Real Madrid, Liverpool then averaged just 1.55 expected goals (xG) in their final three EPL matches while allowing 1.44 expected goals (xGA) which is far below their scorching 2.16 xG - 1.12 xGA clip for the season. From the vantage point of my “eye test”, the Reds have lost some of their emotional intensity which resulted in less vigor in their effort on defense. Now Liverpool goes on the road where while they are W12-D1-L1 in EPL play for 37 points, their expected points on the road fall to just 26.00. Everton has been underachieving relatively to the deeper metrics all season. While they are in 13th place in the EPL table, their expected points are 6th best in the league. Those numbers suggest that the Toffees have been the second unluckiest team in the league. They had registered at least 2.0 expected goals per match in seven straight contests before their underwhelming effort at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea. Everton has played much better since manager Carlo Ancelotti was appointed to replace Marco Silva in late December. Ancelotti is the real deal with three Champions League titles as the manager of AC Milan and then Real Madrid. Ancelotti is considered a tactical genius with an ability to adapt his schemes to his talent along with the weaknesses of his opposition. The Toffees are W5-D3-L3 since Ancelotti took over which has improved the W8-D2-L9 clip they had under Silva. Over their last five matches, Everton led the EPL in big chances created on offense along with being second in total goals scored and third in expected goals. The Toffees were also second in expected goals allowed so they have played well on both ends of the pitch. Ancelotti has unlocked the potential of forward Dominic Calvert-Lewin who was the only player in EPL to record at least one big chance in eight straight match weeks. Overall, Everton is 2nd in the EPL since Ancelotti took over by averaging 2.17 xG — and they are 6th in the league on defense with a 1.37 xGA mark. This is a very underrated side. They host this match at Goodison Park where they are W1-D3-L1 in their five matches against a traditional big six opponent well scoring 6 goals and allowing just 6 goals.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played to a draw in six of their last seven Merseyside Derby’s at Everton. The Toffees will be very motivated to pull the upset as they lost the reverse fixture to Liverpool by a 5-2 score on December 4th before then losing to the Reds on January 11th by a 1-0 score in FA Cup play against a roster filled mostly of younger players. 25* English Premier League Sunday NBC-TV Match of the Year with Everton (200046) plus the goal-line versus Liverpool (200045). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Bournemouth (200022) with the goal-line versus Crystal Palace (200021). THE SITUATION: Bournemouth (W7-D6-L16) return to the pitch this afternoon with their last match being a 2-1 loss at Liverpool back on March 7th. Crystal Palace (W10-D9-L10) last played on March 7th when they defeated Watford by a 1-0 score.

REASONS TO TAKE BOURNEMOUTH WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The Cherries were slumping when play stopped as they had lost thirteen of their last eighteen league matches while allowing their opponents to register 1.99 expected goals per game. Injuries did not help their situation then — so three months to get healthy along with the extended time for manager Eddie Howe to rethink things on defense can only help. Remember that Bournemouth has become a staple in the English top-flight with this being their fifth straight season in the EPL. They have only lost five of their last fourteen league matches at home in Vitality Stadium. They also feast on the lesser competition of the league when playing at home — they have generated 10 points in their last six matches at home against the bottom-ten teams from the table. Crystal Palace may be lacking motivation in the return to action with them stuck in the middle of the table. The Eagles are 12 points safe from relegation in 11th place — but they are also 7 points behind 6th place with both Arsenal and Tottenham standing in their way of potential qualification for the Europa League next fall. The deeper metrics suggest that Crystal Palace has been fortunate to be in the position they are in as they rank just 15th in the EPL in expected points (xPTS). While they are allowing just 1.10 Goals-Per-Game (6th in the EPL), they have an expected goals allowed mark (xGA) of 1.53 which is just 10th in the league. The Eagles are being outscored by -6 net goals this season but their net expected goal differential (xGD) is -16.08. They have only won four of their fourteen matches on the road while being saddled with a 2.01 xGA mark. In their last five road games, they have a combined 11.67 xGA which has resulted in a net expected goal margin of -5.17 xGD.

FINAL TAKE: Crystal Palace has won their last two matches against Bournemouth after their 1-0 win in the reverse EPL fixture on December 3rd. But those two matches were at Selhurst Park. The Cherries host this match with a sense of urgency with a difficult stretch of matches on deck with road games at Wolverhampton, Manchester United, and Manchester City along with home matches against Tottenham, Leicester City, and Everton. 20* EPL Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Bournemouth (200022) with the goal-line versus Crystal Palace (200021). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200013) minus the goal-line versus Wes Ham United (200014). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W10-D13-L6) was unbeaten in their last five English Premier League matches before the stoppage of play with their 0-0 draw with Brighton and Hove Albion on March 7th. West Ham United (W7-D6-L16) looks to rebound from a 1-0 loss at Arsenal back on March 7th in their last match.

REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Wolves were unbeaten in their last five games in the English Premier League while posting clean sheets in four of those contests. They are also still alive for the Europa League championship as their last match before the break-in play was a 1-1 draw at Olympiakos Piraeus in the first leg of their Round of 16 matches. Depth is an issue for this West Midlands team so the three-month break offers them an advantage as they are rested for this final run of matches. Wolverhampton is currently in 7th place in the EPL table while remaining alive to qualify for one of the four available Champions League slots. The deeper metrics are bullish on the Wolves as they have won the expected goals battle in twenty-two of their twenty-nine matches in the EPL this season. Wolverhampton ranks 5th in the league in expected points (xPTS). Over their last eight matches, the Wolves were posting an expected goals (xG) scoring mark of 2.08 while holding their opponents to just 0.94 expected goals (xGA) — and they held the advantage in this metric after matches with top-level teams Manchester United, Tottenham, and even 1st place Liverpool during that span. Now this team goes on the road where they rank 3rd in the EPL in xPTS. West Ham was just W1-D2-L6 in their last nine matches before the stoppage of play. Defense has been a major weakness for this team as they rank 2nd-to-last in the league by allowing 2.05 expected goals per match. The return of David Moyes as their manager at the end of December did not rectify this problem. The Hammers have allowed the second-most Big Chances for their opponents along with the second most shots inside the box since Moyes took over the reins of this team for the second time after he was skipper for the team in 2017-18. West Ham has generated only 8 points in their ten matches under Moyes when allowing 1.94 expected goals per match which is the 4th worst mark in the league during the span. West Ham hosts this match without fans in London Stadium where they are suffering with an expected goal differential of -5.61.

FINAL TAKE: West Ham has lost their last three matches against Wolverhampton after their 2-0 loss at Molineaux on December 4th. Look for the Wolves to outclass the Hammers who are struggling in 17th place in the EPL table. 25* EPL NBC-TV Match of the Year with the Wolverhampton (200013) minus the goal-line versus Wes Ham United (200014). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Sevilla (201910) plus the goal-line versus Barcelona (201909). THE SITUATION: Sevilla (W14-D9-L6) remained unbeaten in their last six matches on Monday with their 1-1 draw at Levante. Barcelona (W20-D4-L5) has won seven of their last eight matches with their 2-0 victory over Leganes on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE SEVILLA PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Sevilla suffered a hard-luck draw in that match on Monday as they scored an own goal in the 87th minute to forfeit their impending 3 points with the victory. They have yet to see an opposing player score against them in their two matches since the return to play. The Andalusians are in 3rd place in the La Liga table as they look to qualify for one of the four slots in the Champions League. Sevilla already had a strong attacking team but they fortified their stable of forwards in the winter transfer period by signing the 23-year old Youssef En-Nesryi along with acquiring Suso on loan from AC Milan. They join their summer transfer in Lucas Ocampos who is their leading scorer this season. Over their last ten matches, the Andalusians have lost now twice while posting 1.64 expected goals (xG) and allowing just 1.17 expected goals (xGA). They host this match where they are unbeaten since December while losing only two of their fourteen matches. They have an impressive +0.97 net expected goal differential when playing at home. And while some bettors may look to the fact that they have only produced 15 points in their last eight home matches, they have posted an impressive +1.03 net expected goal differential in those matches which suggests they were the victim of some unfortunate circumstances. Barcelona has won eight of their ten matches since manager Quique Setien took over the team in January. But both of their losses under Setien have taken place on the road against Real Madrid and Valencia. The reigning La Liga champions have not been as dominant when playing on the road as they are averaging just 1.5 points per road match which is their lowest mark in a decade — and their expected 1.64 points per match on the road indicates they have not been particularly unlucky with those results. The Catalonians have just a +3 net goal differential when playing on the road — and the expected goals metric concurs with only that slight edge as they are just +0.30 net expected goal differential per match when playing on the road. In their victory over Leganes on Tuesday, they only generated 0.88 non-penalty kick expected goals which is not very impressive. Superstar Lionel Messi did score the final goal in that match via a penalty kick. Yet they are averaging 2.34 expected goals per game at home — and now they go back on the road where they are scoring just 1.48 expected goals per match. Barca has feasted on the lesser teams in the league like the last place Leganes this season — they have only 9 points in their last seven matches against teams in the top half of the table.

FINAL TAKE: Barcelona did defeat Sevilla in the reverse fixture between these two teams on October 6th in their 4-0 victory at home at Camp Nou. But the underlying metrics suggest that the match was much closer than expected as Sevilla won the expected goals battle by a 3.27 to 2.46 mark. The Andalusians have a good chance to pull the upset on this Barcelona team that has been vulnerable on the road. A draw may be likely which makes getting the +0.5 goal very valuable. 25* La Liga Friday beIN Sports Match of the Year with the Sevilla (201910) plus the goal-line versus Barcelona (201909). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Manchester United (200037) minus the goal-line versus Tottenham (200038). THE SITUATION: Manchester United (W12-D9-L8) returns to the pitch for the first time since they defeated LASK on the road by a 5-0 score in Europa League action on March 12th. Tottenham (W11-D8-L10) last played in the second leg of the Round of 16 of the Champions League where they were eliminated by RB Leipzig by a 3-0 score on March 10th.

REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER UNITED MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Red Devils had found their form under manager Gunnar Solskjaer as they had not been beaten in their last eleven matches across all competitions while scoring 29 goals over that span and conceding goals just twice. Man United was not simply feasting against weaker competition either as four of those eight victories came against teams currently residing in the top-six spots in the EPL table including Manchester City who they defeated in their last EPL match on March 8th by a 2-0 score. That was no fluke either against two-time defending EPL champions (and the best statistical team this year in the EPL according to the expected goals metric) — they won the xG battle by a 1.32-0.75 margin in that contest. The winter signing of midfielder Bruno Fernandes jumpstarted this team. The Portuguese star from Sporting Lisbon brought this team a risk-taking play-maker that they have been missing. Since Gameweek 25, the Red Devils are second in the EPL in shots on target. Now this team takes the pitch again healthy with forward Marcus Rashford and midfielder Paul Pogba back from injuries that have sidelined both for much of the season. Rashford is the team’s best scorer — and he should thrive with a new partner in Fernandes on the pitch. Pogba is the real wildcard here as the enigmatic French star has not contributed much over the last two seasons. But do not underestimate Pogba’s talent — he was a key component in France’s World Cup victory in 2018 and tends to shine when surrounded with other elite players. Despite not being healthy all season, Man United sports an impressive W6-D4-L1 mark in their eleven matches against the top-eight teams in the EPL table while allowing just nine goals with five clean sheets. Their lone loss was at Liverpool who are running away with the EPL title. Now at full strength, the Red Devils could become very, very good for the rest of this unique season. Tottenham also gets healthy again with Harry Kane, Son Heung-Min, Moussa Sissoko, Steven Bergwijn, and Tangy Ndombele all recovered from the injuries they were dealing with before the stoppage in March. But the Spurs will be without one of their key pieces in the midfield with Dele Alli suspended for this match. Kane is a bit of a mystery for me as I worry that the 26-year old may be wearing down after years of extended service for this franchise along with the English national team. But the problems for this Tottenham side that are winless in their last six matches are more endemic than just some ill-timed midseason knocks. Manager Maurice Pochettino took this team to the Finals of the Champions League to conclude last season (where they lost to Liverpool) — but he returned for his sixth season with the franchise with a group of players that had lost interest in his leadership. The ensuing slow start prompted his firing in mid-November where he was replaced by the enigmatic Jose Mourinho. One of the tactical changes that Mourinho deployed was to abandon the pressing style that Pochettino favored that was no longer succeeding for counter-attacking tactics. Unfortunately for the Spurs, the results have been dreadful on the defensive side of the pitch for this team. In the seventeen matches under Mourinho, Tottenham have 29 expected goals allowed mark which is 5th worst in the EPL over that span — and their -2.6 expected goal differential in those matches in 12th in the league. Over their last ten matches, the Spurs averaging an xGA mark of 2.08 while twice allowing their opponents to cross the 3.0 expected goals mark. In their last EPL match against Burnley, they allowed a team not known for their attacking prowess to pepper them with 21 shots in eight on target in what concluded in a 1-1 draw on March 7th. Seeing the return of these talented offensive players will help — but the talent and cohesion of the roster of defensive backs remains a question. Against the traditional Big Six EPL teams this season, Tottenham is just W1-D2-L5 while conceding 13 times and scoring only 9 goals.

FINAL TAKE: The Spurs will be looking to avenge a 2-1 loss at Manchester United back on December 4th. Tottenham has generated 26 of their 41 points in the EPL at home this season in their new Tottenham Hotspur Stadium — but the lack of fans in this contest will detract from their home-field advantage in this facility. The Spurs have lost two of their three opportunities to host a Big Six side this season. 25* EPL Friday NBC-Sports Network Match of the Year with the Manchester United (200037) minus the goal-line versus Tottenham (200038). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Southampton (200033) with the goal-line versus Norwich City (200034). THE SITUATION: Southampton (W10-D4-L15) returns to the pitch after a 1-0 loss at home to Newcastle United on March 7th. Norwich City (W5-D6-L18) comes off a 1-0 loss at Sheffield United on March 7th.

REASONS TO TAKE SOUTHAMPTON WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The Saints started W1-D6-L8 in their first fifteen matches last year which prompted them to fire manager Mark Hughes. Former RB Leipzig manager Ralph Hasenhuttl took over the team and oversaw a W8-D6-L9 finish to the season to barely stave off relegation with Saints finishing in 16th place. The key to Hasenhuttl’s success was installing a high-press scheme that significantly increased the team’s aggressiveness. But Southampton struggled to start this season — and they hit rock bottom in the fall in a humiliating 9-0 loss to Leicester City. Hasenhuttl did not back down on his pressing approach but he did change formations to add a fourth defender for his backline after the international break offered him to reassess the team’s tactics. The Saints responded by going on a W7-D2-L3 run over their next twelve matches which catapulted them into the middle of the table. Southampton was slumping before play stopped in March — but the hiatus has allowed Hasenhuttl to once again tweak with his game management. The Saints press has been a success as they rank 3rd in the EPL behind Liverpool and Man City in passes allowed before a defensive action on their part. The deeper metrics are bullish on this team — while they are 14th in the table with 34 points, their expected points (xPTS) of 41.09 is 8th best in the EPL. Southampton has also been a good road team this season — they have won six of their fourteen matches with two draws with those 20 points being tied for 6th best in the league. Norwich City has lost three of their last four EPL matches — and they have been shut out in four of their last five contests. The Canaries lack finishers with only forward Teemu Pukki presenting a reliable scoring threat. They are converting a mere 7.5% of their 335 shots attempts with those resulting 25 goals being tied for the fewest in the EPL. But defense may be the bigger concern for this team with the 52 goals they have allowed this season being tied for the second-most in the league. The Canaries are giving up too many high-quality chances inside the 6-foot box — and this is in part because they are allowing the 4th most passing inside the 20-yard box.

FINAL TAKE: Norwich City will be looking to avenge a 2-1 loss at Southampton back on December 4th. The Canaries will miss the emotional support of their home fans with this match being played in an empty stadium — 71% of their 21 points this season have been generated at home at Carrow Road. And because Norwich City is in last place, they need to play aggressively with the hopes of securing the 3 points with the victory. 10* EPL Friday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Southampton (200033) with the goal-line versus Norwich City (200034). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Real Madrid (201878) minus the goal-line versus Valencia (201877). THE SITUATION: Real Madrid (W17-D8-L3) returned to the pitch last Sunday with a 3-1 victory at home over Eibar. Valencia (W11-D10-L7) comes off a 1-1 draw at home against Levante last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE REAL MADRID MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Los Blancos looked dominant in that match on Sunday as they scored three quick goals in the first 37 minutes of that contest to cruise to their victory. Injuries have slowed this team down but manager Zinedine Zidane had the services of Eden Hazard again for that contest after the Belgium striker had been out with an injury for much of the season. Hazard did not score but he did assist on one of the goals. Real Madrid is second in the league to Barcelona — but they lead La Liga in both expected goals (xG) and the fewest expected goals allowed (xGA). They are allowing just 0.71 goals per 90 minutes in league play which is the best mark of all the four major professional leagues that have returned to play since the stoppages in March. They also lead La Liga with an expected goal differential (xGD) of +28.96 on the season. They stay at home where they will be playing the remaining of their matches at their training facility Estadio Alfredo di Stefano. While the 6000 seat facility is not as intimidating as their 80,000 Santiago Bernabeu, Los Blancos certainly retain a familiarity edge when playing in this arena. Real Madrid is W10-D4-L0 at home in league play where they have scored at least two goals in ten matches and where they have registered clean sheets in five contests. Half of their home victories have been by at least two goals. Valencia may be the most overvalued side in La Liga. They are the only team in the top-half of the table with a net goal differential — and they have a -8.42 net expected goal differential on the season. While they began the match week in 8th place with 43 points in the table, their expected points (xPTS) drop to just 34.83 which is 12th in the league. Los Che average the second fewest chances on offense in the league with under 9 shot attempts per match — and they are also allowing more than 15 shots per game by their opponents. They have managed only 3.87 expected goals combined over their last four contests for a meager 0.97 xG per match average. Their defense is undermanned with Ezequiel Garay, Gabriel Paulista, and Cristiano Piccini all dealing with injuries. They go back on the road where they are W3-D3-L7 but with an expected goal differential (xGD) of -11.03. They are winless in their last six matches on the road in league play with a -6.09 xGD — and they are averaging a mere 0.57 xG in those contests.

FINAL TAKE: Real Madrid won the last meeting between these two teams back on January 8th with their 3-1 victory on the road in Super Cup play. But these two teams played to a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture in league play on December 15th so Los Blanchos are not likely going to take this team lightly. 20* La Liga Thursday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Real Madrid (201878) minus the goal-line versus Valencia (201877). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Arsenal (200001) and Manchester City (200002). THE SITUATION: Arsenal (W9-D13-L6) had won their last three matches culminating with a 1-0 victory at home over West Ham on March 7th before the stoppage in play due to COVID-19. Manchester City (W18-D3-L7) has been anxious to get back on the pitch after losing the Manchester Derby to Man United by a 2-0 score in their building back on March 8th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: While the two-time defending champions have a roster packed with dynamic scorers, those players can distract from the fact that this team plays outstanding defense for manager Pep Guardiola. The Citizens lead the English Premier League in both fewest goals allowed along with the lowest expected goals allowed (xGA) in the league. They also led the EPL in giving up the fewest Big Chances in their last ten league matches before the March hiatus. The good news for Pep is that the extended layoff has provided the time for center back Aymeric LaPorte to recover from his injury. Man City’s defense improves significantly with LaPorte on the pitch. In the seven games LaPorte has played this season, the Citizens allowed a stingy 0.43 goals-per-game as compared to their 1.14 defense Goals-Per-Game average in their other twenty-one contests. And while Man City allows 5.7 shots per match in the box along with 1.6 Big Chances per match, those numbers fall to just 4 shots per match in the box along with just 1.2 Big Chances allowed per game with LaPorte healthy and playing. This will be the eighth match this season where they have played one of the perennial Big Six sides — the Citizens have scored only nine times in those seven matches. They host this match at Etihad Stadium where they lead the EPL in both the fewest goals allowed along with xGA. Arsenal has embraced more defensive tactics under new manager Mikel Arteta who took over in late December. The Gunners have allowed just nine goals in their ten matches under Arteta. However, these tactics have come at the expense of their offensive attack as they have scored just 16 times in those ten matches. Arsenal is likely to play cautiously in this match while hoping their attacking talent like Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang can strike on a counterattack. They have scored only nine goals in their seven matches against a Big Six side. They go on the road where they have scored just 14 times in their thirteen contests — and they have scored just four times in their five road matches under Arteta. But the Gunners have surrendered just four goals in those last five matches away from home — and this is a team that has registered three clean sheets in their last four contests.

FINAL TAKE: Arsenal has scored only twice in their last six matches against Man City across all competitions. These are unique circumstances with 100 days passing since the last EPL match — so it is very much like a second offseason. It is interesting to note that Man City delivered two clean sheets in their last two opening matches to a new season. 20* EPL Arsenal-Man City NBC Sports Network O/U Special with Under the Total in the match between Arsenal (200001) and Manchester City (200002). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between FSV Mainz (202441) and Borussia Dortmund (202442). THE SITUATION: FSV Mainz (W9-D4-L18) looks to bounce back from a 1-0 loss at home to Augsburg last Sunday. Borussia Dortmund (W20-D6-L5) has won five of their last six matches with their 1-0 win at Fortuna Dusseldorf last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: That was the fourth clean sheet for the Black-Yellows in their six matches since the return to play last month. Borussia Dortmund has only allowed three goals in those six contests. Manager Lucien Favre has transformed his team from a freewheeling attacking unit into a side that prioritizes sturdy defense. BVB has allowed only five goals in their last ten matches across all competitions — and they have surrendered just three goals in their last ten matches in the Bundesliga. Furthermore, they have registered a clean sheet in eight of their last twelve matches in league play. Borussia Dortmund returns home where they lead the league in both goals allowed and in expected goals allowed (xGA). On paper, the Black-Yellows also have a very potent offense that is second in the league with 82 goals scored this season. But Borussia Dortmund has been wildly fortunate with that haul since their expected goals drop to just 59.71. And while the BVB has scored 46 times at home, their xG at home also plummets to a 33.52 mark. Since the return to play, Dortmund has failed to register even 1.0 xG in three of their six matches — and they have only topped 1.76 xG once in those contests. FSV Mainz has not scored a goal in four straight maths — and they are just six goals in their last eleven contests. But Achim Beierlorzer has been seeing his team play better defense since he took over the club midseason. The 05ers have only given up 10 goals in their six matches since the return. They also limited Augsburg to just 0.76 expected goals on Sunday in that narrow 1-0 loss.

FINAL TAKE: Borussia Dortmund produced a 4-0 shutout victory over FSV Mainz back on December 14th in the reverse fixture between these two teams. The 05ers will struggle to score against an even more compact foe in BVB this time around — but they should allow fewer goals in this rematch. 25* Bundesliga Midweek FS2-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between FSV Mainz (202441) and Borussia Dortmund (202442). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Sheffield United (200005) with the goal-line versus Aston Villa (20006). THE SITUATION: Sheffield United (W11-D10-L7) returns to the pitch for the first time since March 7th when they defeated Norwich City at home by a 1-0 score. Aston Villa (W7-D4-L17) has lost five games in a row across all competitions after their 4-0 loss at Leicester City back on March 9th.

REASONS TO TAKE SHEFFIELD UNITED WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The Blades were unbeaten in their last six matches before the stoppage in play. They had only lost to the top two teams in the league in Liverpool and Manchester City in their last thirteen matches on the road in league play. Sheffield United’s defensive-first approach has been very successful against the non-power teams in the English Premier League. In their nineteen matches against the traditional non-Power Six, the Blades are W10-D6-L3. They are also unbeaten in their eighth matches on the road in the EPL against non-Big Six sides with four victories and four draws. They have won seven of their last nine matches with two draws being their lone blemishes against non-Big Six sides while only allowing five goals in these contests. Aston Villa has allowed 12.24 expected goals in their last four league matches to compound to their defensive woes this season. The Villans are last in the EPL in both goals allowed and expected goals allowed. The metrics are not encouraging with this team at all either as they rank last in the league with an expected goal differential of -27.8 xGD. Aston Villa returns to action having allowed the most shots inside the box through the first twenty-nine game weeks since that metric started being measured. They have not registered a clean sheet in nine straight games. The Villans also do not pressure the opposing goalkeeper enough as they have the fourth feast big chances in the EPL while ranking last in both big chances and expected goals scored over their last ten matches. Aston Villa is getting their talented midfielder John McGinn back for this match after he suffered an injury in the fall — but his game fitness for this match is in question after the long layoff.

FINAL TAKE: Sheffield United won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 2-0 score back in December. Aston Villa will struggle to score against the compact Blades defense — but they will likely allow at least one goal as their expected goals allowed of 2.45 xGA is -0.32 xGA worse than the next most porous defensive team in the EPL. 25* English Premier League Midweek NBC-Sports Network Match of the Year with the      Sheffield United (200005) with the goal-line versus Aston Villa (20006). Best of luck for us — Frank.