Oklahoma is on a tear at 8-1 SU/ATS. What changed? The Sooners' defense improved, as they have held six of the last eight opponents below 42% shooting. West Virginia shot 53% yesterday in crushing Creighton. However, that was just the second time the Mountaineers have shot better than 46% in 15 games. West Virginia will try to slow the Sooners and may have some success early in doing so. Ultimately, Oklahoma will prevail because the offense and defense will move to 9-0 ATS in away or neutral games after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread as Crown champions. 

This is really the undercard of the Final Four, with most expecting and rightfully so, the winner of the later contest to be crowned champion. By offensive metrics at various college basketball websites, this Illinois offense is one of the most efficient in modern history. The reason Coach Underwood has his first club still playing is the defense, which developed an identity down the stretch. This is Connecticut’s third Final 4 team in three years, and though still very good, quite a bit different than the squads that won titles. To play with Illinois, you have to make shots. The Huskies need to hit their season average of 48.1%, something they have only done twice in their past 10 games. UConn’s tourney history is amazing, hard to ignore the Fighting Illini are 15-3 ATS in away or neutral games after a game committing eight or fewer turnovers.

The Sooners have played better basketball, winning 7-1 SU/ATS compared to Baylor, who’s alternated wins and losses in the last eight tries.  Some might think the Bears' defense played great in holding Minnesota to 48 points on 38.8% shooting. But who is backing Minny away from home? That was the first time Baylor held a foe below 40% shooting in 11 games, permitting over 50% seven times in that span. Oklahoma shot a dreadful 36.6% in beating Colorado somehow in OT, its worst outing in eight contests. In the Sooners' previous seven contests, they shot 51%. I’m looking for norms across the board. Let’s consider the Sooners are 10-1 ATS after a win by 6 points or fewer, with the Bears 1-10 ATS in away or neutral games after a win by 15 points or more.

In the opener of the NIT semis, New Mexico is the favorite, but I don’t think they are the play. Lobos are 7-5 SU away and 2-2 on neutral floors. Tulsa is 8-4 SU in away contests and 5-1 at neutral sites. New Mexico, on the season, is the better defensive team by shooting percentage, yet in each club's last seven outings, the Golden Hurricane is at 41.7% vs. 44.6% for the Lobos. Offensively, very similar with modest edges to Tulsa, plus being the stronger rebounding club, +5.2 vs +2.4. Tulsa is 9-1 since Valentine's Day, while NM is 7-4 in about the same period. With the total over 160, Tulsa is 19-3 SU after scoring 80 points or more.

Duke is a deserving favorite, and having PG Caleb Foster back helps them get organized on offense. But you cannot argue with Danny Hurley’s success in this tournament at 16-3 ATS and 13-0 ATS from the Sweet 16 forward. The Huskies compete by playing strong interior defense and making the extra pass on offense that allows for better shots, which is why they average 18.5 assists a game. This very much feels like a one possession game and given UConn’s recent history, they should cover.

Rick Barnes has been to two straight Elite Eight appearances. The guy can coach, but big games are not his thing.  Iowa State has a disruptive defense that makes everything hard. But the loss of Joshua Jefferson hurts, as his all-around excellence as the Cyclones second-leading scorer, second on the team in assists, and leads the team in rebounds is impossible to overcome this deep in the tourney. Let’s note Iowa State in away or neutral games versus good defensive teams, with a shooting percentage defense of 42% or lower after 15+ games is 1-8 SU. The Vols cover.

These teams split a pair of games, with the home team taking both. Iowa scored the big upset in knocking off top-seeded Florida, being more mentally prepared from the start and executing late for the victory. But this heated rivalry goes to the next level in a Sweet 16 matchup. Maybe Iowa has just caught fire, but ending the regular season on a 3-8 SU doesn’t make the Hawkeyes championship material. I can see them leveling off, especially since they are still permitting over 49% shooting in their last 15 contests. The Huskers' superior defense matters, and they are 17-4 ATS after two or more consecutive Unders.

As one might expect, both teams come in playing solid basketball at this time of year, winning four of five. However, Dayton has played well for an extended period at 11-3 SU. The Flyers' only losses were to VCU, proving just a poor matchup for them, but taking care of everyone else. Before Illinois St. heating up, they had alternated wins and losses for 10 consecutive contests.  Dayton also has two impressive road wins in the NIT and has long been known for playing well at home. The Redbirds had a sharp upset at Wake Forest in their previous outing, but it’s impossible to ignore that they have surrendered 50% or better in shooting in six of their last eight outings. The Flyers are 13-1 SU at home, having covered two of their last three against the spread, winning by 12.7 PPG.

Alabama is weakened without Aden Holloway, though the Crimson Tide still has ample firepower. With the way Texas Tech has figured out how to play without JT Toppin, there is little doubt the Red Raiders would have been in the conversation for a Final Four bid, as coach Grant McCasland has done a brilliant job keeping this team ready to play. Both clubs take and make a lot; however, Double T runs a more efficient offense and has an excellent defensive transition, which is why they allow only 31.3% of made threes. Note, the Red Raiders are 18-6 SU versus teams that make 8 or more 3-point shots after 15+ games and 8-1 SU after failing to cover three of their last four against the spread.

The spread suggests a tight game, and Tennessee coach R. Barnes is 2-8 ATS in one-possession spreads while ACC underdogs in this round are on a 10-2 ATS run. Then, add that Virginia is the better long-range shooting team and averages six blocks a game as elite rim protectors.

This matchup is about potential vs. a proven commodity. Kansas can no doubt put together a great game with the players they have. However, that is more likely to happen on Lawrence than in San Diego with the Jayhawks 5-6 SU/ATS on the road. In fact, in Kansas recent visits to Iowa State, Arizona, and last week vs. Houston (conference tourney), they have lost to those teams by 18, 23, and 20 points, respectively. On the other hand, St. John’s has won seven straight, covering six of them. Winning by 15.8 PPG. With Kansas having shot 40% or lower in five of its past six outings, that is not a good sign. With St. John’s 16-3 ATS against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games and 11-1 ATS versus making 45% or more of their shots in the same time span, it’s the Red Storm by 10 or more. 

This game opened as a Pick, then Vandy was moved to a favorite. Both teams have strong backcourts and can make shots from anywhere on the floor. Nebraska has better defensive numbers at 40.1% shooting compared to the Commodores at 42.5%, yet in seven neutral floor contests, the Dores are at  40.9% with a 6-1 SU record. Vandy has more quickness and speed, and the overall more talented backcourt, and they are at almost 85% from the line the last month, compared to the Cornhuskers at 72%. Note that the Huskers have lost their last three away games, and lower-seeded teams as favorites are 15-7 SU and ATS in the second round. 

Wilmington is off two poor shooting games, and if they shot 36 to 42 percent in consecutive contests, they are 4-0 SU this season. The Seahawks squeaked out a one-point win at Yale and are 27-4 SU after three straight games committing 14 or less turnovers. Plus, UNC-W is 21-5 ATS off an upset win as an underdog.

At face value, this looks like a lot of points to hand out in this Lone Star State showdown. Houston is only 3-9 ATS recently, and having only one full day to prepare for Texas A&M’s full-court defense is not easy. However, the Cougars only average 8.5 TOs a game for the season, and the Aggies are 3-6 SU and ATS when they generate fewer than 10 TOs a game. Houston has great guards and can navigate through an Aggies defense that allows 80 PPG on 44.5% shooting. The SU winner of the Aggies' last 16 contests is 14-2 ATS. And the Cougars are 15-1 SU after two straight games committing eight or fewer turnovers, winning by an average of 13.6 PPG.

Off an ugly loss in the Big East title game, Connecticut should come to play and get back on track versus the Southern Conference champs. The Huskies are 14-0 ATS the last three years in this tournament and knock the Paladins around to win and cover. 

If you look at this contest on the surface, it seems like two similar clubs that shoot the ball very well and are ordinary defensively. When digging deeper, Miami is 8-2 SU on the road, compared to Missouri at 5-6 SU. Over the last two months, the Tigers are .500, while the Hurricanes are 10-5 SU. They also do a better job crashing the glass at +6.7 to +3.4. Lastly, we have these last game scenarios. Mizzou is 2-13 ATS after a loss by six points or less. Conversely, first-round tournament teams off a loss of 20 or more points, like the Tigers, are 30-16 ATS. 

This matchup features two strong defensive teams that get it done differently. This will end up dictating a lot of the contest. Thus, making shots will determine the winner and the point spread winner. Northern Iowa is the better shooting team at 47.7% (SJS - 45.4%), and over the last two months, the Panthers are 51%. Granted, nobody in the MVC plays like the Red Storm on defense, but UNI is connected offensively. With the total at 131.5, that means fewer possessions and late shots on the clock. You should know #5 seeds have also struggled in expected lower scoring games with totals of 141 or less, at 14-28-2 ATS since 2009. And, the Panthers are a solid 9-5 ATS on the road this season.

With JT Toppin, Texas Tech was at least capable of reaching the Elite 8 if not further. Without him, the Red Raiders are primarily a jump-shooting squad who take roughly half their shots behind the arc and definitely can have hot shooting games. Nonetheless, Akron has won 10 straight, shooting over 50% on the year, 38% from deep, while holding foes to 42% shooting. Texas Tech’s confidence has to be shaky after a 0-3 SU/ATS run and though they may win, I’ll say by four or less. 

Talk about a contrast in pace, St. Mary’s is #298 in adjusted tempo, with Texas A&M #29 nationally. What usually happens in these games is that the slower pace wins out in style of play. If the slower-paced club is making its shots, the speedy-paced squad gets anxious and starts to play out of character. The Gaels are above-average shooters at 46.3%, and dead-eye assassins from deep at 39%. St. Mary’s can also control the boards with a strong +11 rebounding edge, and they can ice the game away by making over 80% of free throws. 

The loss of Caleb Wilson for the Tar Heels cannot be understated; he makes them a far stronger team. VCU comes in as a complete team, able to make threes and create defensive pressure.  The Rams are 16-2 SU since early January. The fact UNC is a public entity and is a short favorite tells what the oddsmakers think. Then I’ll add that VCU is 10-1 SU versus teams committing 12 or fewer turnovers a contest after 15+ games, the Rams outright is very possible. 

Louisville has fallen from -6 to -5 against American champion USF. The Bulls have won 11 in a row, 14 of 15, and 17-2 since Jan. 7, with both losses by a single point, one in OT. The Cardinals are 4-4 SU of late and 1-7 ATS (all spread setbacks as faves). Yes, the ACC is tougher than the American, but I can’t ignore that Louisville is 4-7 SU away and USF 9-3 SU away. USF is 10-1 SU after seven or more consecutive wins.

After playing well most of the season, Murray State collapsed, with a 2-5 record and 0-7 ATS. The culprit, no defense, permitting an average shooting percentage over 52% in those contests. The Racers are 3-8 ATS in away games. Nevada is a notoriously tough place to play, as they were 15-2 SU, winning by almost 10 PPG. When looking at the spread, the Wolf Pack was 8-1, 7-2 ATS as single-digit home faves or dogs. Plus, Murray St. is 0-9 ATS after two straight games committing 11 or fewer turnovers. 

George Washington was an underachiever this season at 18-15 SU. The defense was leaky, with the offense more inconsistent than anticipated. Utah Valley was one missed last-second dunk from playing in OT for the WAC title. The Wolverines were a perfect 15-0 at home, and if you count just their 14 lined conflicts, they won by an average of 18.6 PPG. On the season, UV averages over 80 PPG. If they are off a game where both clubs scored 65 or fewer points, they are 8-0 ATS.

The Tommies are a great shooting team at 51% and 36.5% from threes. However, Seattle plays excellent defense at 41.6% from the field. Where the game turns for me is in other aspects. St. Thomas is better defensively than they get credit for at 43%, and Seattle connects at just 44%. When the total is below 150.5 (147 at present), St. Thomas is 4-2 SU. Plus, this point spread has been bad for the Redhawks at 1-12 ATS when the line is +3 to -3.

Both these teams give you plenty of reasons to pause, with an ample amount of head-scratching showings (effort would be the wrong word to use) toward the end of the season. Both defenses imploded late, but what I like about Texas is that they are coming off a rare bad shooting game at 35%. That is just the fifth time the Horns were that off target, below 40%, and they are a perfect 4-0 SU in the next contest.  

Wyoming is 3-10 and 4-9 ATS on the road this season, losing by 6.3 PPG. Wichita State is 13-3 and 12-4 ATS at home in lined games, winning by 13.4 PPG. The Shockers have a clear rebounding advantage (+3.6) and are the superior defensive team (42% vs 46% shooting percentage). The clincher: the Cowboys are 0-10 ATS in away or games after a game as a road underdog, losing by 15.6 PPG.

Dayton has won two games in the tournament despite shooting below 35% in each contest. What allowed the Flyers to win? Having a +9 turnover margin. However, VCU only averages 10.6 TOs a game and has 10 or fewer in five of its last seven games. VCU also understands the Dayton style and is 7-2 ATS recently against them. The Rams have the better offense and three-point shooting, plus they are 13-3 SU after two straight games committing 11 or fewer turnovers, winning by an average of 11.9 PPG.

Having seen each team at least three times this season, Tulsa scores more easily than Wichita St. (47.9% vs 44.4%). That is a function of ball movement where Tulsa averages 15 assists a game, with the Shockers at 11. Defensively, the numbers find them very similar. One aspect to ponder, the Golden Hurricanes are 5-0 SU on neutral courts, Wichita St. is 0-3 SU. Here is an angle that applies to each club going in opposite directions. Tulsa is 15-3 SU after scoring 75 points or more in three straight games; the Shockers are 1-6 SU after scoring 75 points or more in three consecutive contests.

USF will win, but Charlotte has a few things in their favor. The 49ers have won and covered twice in the American tourney and feel good about themselves. This is the Bulls' first game in six days, and they just beat this same opponent by 23 points, so their focus might not be great, while Charlotte’s will. Here are two oddities: the 49ers are 8-0 ATS when playing with rest, while USF is 0-9 on neutral courts. The big dog loses by just 10. 

I, like many others, think Florida is one of the four best teams in the country. The Gators can dominate inside, especially against Vanderbilt, which is more of a jump-shooting team (and a very good one). But Florida will get a lot of second-chance points because of their rebounding prowess, which is the difference in the contest. With the Gators 12-2 ATS against offensive teams scoring 84+ PPG after 15+ games, winning by an average of 13.6 PPG, I’ll absorb the extra two digits from -6.5 but stay conservative on the units because of it. 

Fullerton is on a 5-1/SU/ATS move, with their only setback by two points to Hawaii. Fullerton won despite shooting only 35%. Six different times after shooting below 38%, they have come back the next game and shot 47% to 62%. With the Rainbow Warriors only 3-7 ATS as recent favorites, the Titans cover and might win outright. 

Having lost six times by five points or less, Oklahoma has gained the confidence needed to start winning. The Sooners are a red-hot 6-0 SU/ATS, running great offense and playing much-improved defense. Arkansas is not playing poorly at 7-2 SU/ATS, but the defense gives up a lot of easy baskets. Oklahoma is 9-0 ATS off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog.

Davidson looked terrible in needing OT to knock off a bad Loyola squad. St. Joe’s comes in on a 6-0 SU/ATS streak, playing outstanding defense, holding opposing teams to 37.1%. Take the defense, better quickness, and a rebounding edge, and it makes sense why the Hawks are 14-3 ATS after a game where they covered the spread.

Akron has beaten Kent St. by 17 and 22 points this season. With not having to play Miami-O next, the Zips can have added focus here, and I’ll say they win by 13 or more. The Golden Flashes are 0-8 ATS revenging a loss where the opponent scored 75 or more points.

The last five matchups have totaled between 166 to 182 points. Why should this one be any different? Play OVER. 

Abilene Christian shot 50% last night in the victory, a rarity for a club at 40.7% in their last 15 games. In the same time span, they allow over 50% shooting defense, and Utah Tech connects on 47.1% of shot attempts. My numbers show UT by 5 or more.

What Kansas team shows up? Anyone’s guess. Though I’m no fan of TCU coach Jamie Dixon, his team is 9-1 lately, with a 7-3 ATS mark, with the spread losses as faves. Jayhawks 3-15 SU in away or neutral games versus teams committing 12 or fewer turnovers after 15+ games.

I believe the Rams were looking ahead to this match-up, which is why they shot 39% in the win but did not cover versus Fresno St. yesterday. CSU is on a 9-1 SU run, while the Aztecs limp in 2-4 and 1-5 ATS. San Diego State 2-14 ATS in away or neutral games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games.

Bet Against - Neutral court teams like Northridge - after being beaten by the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%), playing a winning team. (10-37 ATS)

I don’t think Davidson takes Loyola lightly despite their 9-23 record. The Ramblers have won three of four but are still a terrible shooting team, and Davidson is very good at defending the three-ball. The Wildcats can make deep shots (39.2% in away games), while Loyola is almost -5 in TO margin per game.  

I’ll say Georgia won’t be as stupid as Texas and actually take Ole Miss seriously. The Rebels beat the Horns because they were +10 in TO margin. The Bulldogs generate 13.7 TOs a game, so the three Ole Miss had last night won’t be duplicated. Georgia arrives 5-1 SU/ATS recently, and the SU winner of their games is on a 10-0 ATS run. The Dawgs are 15-3 ATS in away or neutral games versus poor defensive teams forcing 12 or fewer turnovers after 15+ games.

Purdue wins, however, 1-15 ATS in Big Ten tourney games. Northwestern was impressive last night and lost by only 4 at Purdue eight days ago. 

Too much Virginia defense and not nearly enough Wolfpack defense.

UC-Davis won both meetings this year, but is a bigger than expected underdog. UCSB is on a 1-5 SU slide, and it's easy to understand why; they are -36 in turnover margin. Conversely, the Aggies are +16 in the same number of contests. Then we toss in this, UCSB is 0-8 ATS revenging two consecutive SU losses as a favorite.

I’m going with recent performances: G-Town is 1-7 SU, and DePaul is 5-3 SU. The Blue Demons have improved under coach Holtmann; the Hoyas played pretty well early under coach Cooley, but not anymore. Evenly matched squads, but DePaul is the more confident crew. 

At 18-13, Texas is supposedly in the Big Dance, but a win or two would solidify their position, which I’m sure the coaching staff has told the Longhorns players. Ole Miss has lost 12 of 13 (5-8 ATS), and though they have been competitive at times, they have zero incentive. The Horns by 10 or more. 

Northwestern has played better down the stretch than Indiana, at 4-2 compared to 1-5. In that mix is an upset win at Bloomington. Whatever crowd there will be, it will be pro-Northwestern in Chicago, and the ’Cats are 8-0 ATS in away or neutral games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%).

Idaho has been flipped to a favorite primarily because Eastern Washington has to play back-to-back games, and they won this same matchup eight days ago. But the Vandals won consecutive games in the Big Sky tourney, and have played wildly inconsistently on offense. EWU is on a 9-1 SU/ATS run and is shooting better than 54% in its past nine outings. The Eagles are not beating themselves and 12-2 ATS after four straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers, while Idaho 1-10 SU versus teams making 48% or more of their shots.

Detroit has not had a winning season in a decade, and it last went to the Big Dance 14 years ago. However, the Titans split two games with Wright State, losing by three and winning by two. Defeating a very good Robert Morris crew should give Detroit a lot of confidence. I’m not calling for the upset, just taking the points with Detroit, who is 15-4 ATS versus teams that average 33 or fewer rebounds a game.

Hofstra was in a rugged defensive battle and made a lucky three-point bank shot in OT to hold off Towson to reach the CAA title game. Hofstra has held its last nine foes to a shooting average below 35%. I think that’s why they win, which is about what Monmouth shot in two games this season. With the total currently at 133.5, the Pride is 12-2 SU when the total is 130 to 139.5, winning by an average of 10.4 PPG to cover.

Two hot teams collide in the CAA semis. Towson and Hofstra have won five in a row. However, Hofstra is on a 9-1 and 8-2 ATS and is the steadier of the two clubs. The Pride won both games by a total of 29 points and held the Tigers to 33% and 29% shooting in the two matchups. That could be important again because Towson is off a 50% shooting game. That has happened 8 times for them, and six times in the very next contest, they made below 40%. Hofstra beat William and Mary by 31 on Sunday and is 8-0 ATS after a win by 15 points or more.

Georgia Southern has accomplished the near impossible. C-USA stacked their tournament to keep a lower-seeded team from winning. The Eagles are the #10 seed, have won five days in a row, and have been unstoppable on offense, one way or another. They are now 40 minutes from a Big Dance bid. Troy is the top seed, which has the defense, especially from the perimeter, to slow Georgia Southern. I don’t think the Troy will allow themselves to get in a shootout, and only two of its last 10 foes have scored more than 70 points. Troy is 20-6 ATS after one or more OVERs, winning by 9.6 PPG. 

I missed on Georgia Southern, but I still like playing against a team playing four straight days the majority of the time. UNI is that team, and they shot 62% yesterday, so they should cool off, and UIC is tough inside and crushing foes on the glass. The Flames are 13-2 ATS in away or neutral games after two or more consecutive wins.

I think Texas Tech is too mentally and physically tough for BYU, and the Red Raiders are 13-3 SU versus teams that make 8 or more 3-point shots a game after 15+ games.

What a great run for Georgia Southern in the SBC tourney. But at some point, the legs get heavy playing four straight days. Coastal Carolina plays great defense and will challenge the Eagles' shots, and CC is on a good 5-1 SU/ATS run and wears down GS.  

The Ohio Valley Championship is the first official bid of March Madness. These clubs split a pair, but Morehead State covered both. Two things about this underdog I like: they are 7-1 ATS as underdogs of +5.5 or less in 2026 and are 6-2 and 7-1 ATS against Tenn. State. 

This was the first college basketball game I ever bet many moons ago, and it was so stressful in winning that I said I would never do it again. So much for listening to myself. Auburn does not play good enough defense to contain the Tide, and the Tigers are 2-7 and 3-6 ATS on the road. Bama is 12-1 SU after allowing 45 points or more in the first half last game, winning by 12.3 PPG on average.

Colorado State is playing its best basketball of the year in winning eight in a row, thanks to an offense making over 52% on average in this stretch. Boise State allowed over 47% in MWC play and in those away games, 49.4%. The Rams are 8-0 ATS after 6 or more consecutive wins.

Louisville on the season is 3-7 and 2-8 ATS on the road. In the ACC, the Cardinals 3-5 and 2-6 ATS. Miami is on a 7-1 SU run with its only loss at Virginia by three points. Louisville this season is 0-6 SU in away games against good teams (Win Pct. 60% to 80%), losing by 8.7 PPG. 

LaSalle can’t shoot, at 41% for the season and 38.9% the last month. St. Joe’s can defend, at 40.6% for the season and 37.6% the last month. The Hawks are on a 5-0 SU/ATS run, 9-2 SU/ATS since Jan. 19th, and the SU winner of their games is on a 17-1 ATS run. 

Texas State has modest edges in shooting overall, from behind the arc, and from the charity stripe. The Bobcats also rebound better and generate more steals. Texas State would also have a nine-game winning streak except for a no-show at a lousy Louisiana club two games ago. I think that helps the preparation here. South Miss won’t like the pace of 139, since they are 2-15 SU, losing by almost 6 PPG. 

Forget the records, UIC is on a 12-4 SU run and Murray State is 7-8 SU. The Racers are allowing better than 50% shooting in that span, while the Flames are at 41%. With Murray State 0-8 ATS in away or neutral games after allowing 75 points or more in two straight games, UIC advances. 

Bakersfield cannot shoot or defend, explaining its 8-22 record. Northridge might be thought to overlook this game before a home finale, but coming off two losses, that seems unlikely. Northridge has gone ice cold behind the arc at less than 25% in the last four games. With Bakersfield permitting over 50% from the field and over 40% from deep in its past five ballgames, Northridge should find its shooting eye. With Bakersfield 1-10 ATS versus teams averaging 62 or more shots a game, losing by 12.2 PPG, grab the visiting Matadors.

Lindenwood won by 10 yesterday in spite of shooting 32%. Normally, that could be a play on the spot, but they shot 51% in the previous contest and have connected on below 40% in three of four tries. SEMS has won 9 of 11, and its defensive numbers are better over the last month (40.1% vs 42.8%). Lindenwood has not thrived in this scheduling spot at 1-10 ATS, playing their 2nd road game in three days.

James Madison had a hot shooting night on Wednesday in advancing to this contest, shooting 59%. The Dukes 54% or better in three of their last four outing and have won 7 of 8, with the only loss by a point. Southern Miss is on a 5-3 move, including a win over JMU. However, I like that the Dukes are 10-1 SU in away or neutral games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival.

Youngstown State 4-10 SU on the road and 3-7 SU/ATS in Horizon away games. Robert Morris might not be as good as last year; they have hit their stride on 7-0 SU/ATS runs. This is a team that can roll when they get hot and are 14-1 ATS off three straight wins against conference rivals, winning by 10.9 PPG. 

Davidson is a so-so 9-6 at home, but just 5-10 ATS. St. Joe’s 7-5 ATS on the road (5-7 SU), but us 6-2 ATS on the A-10 road. St. Joe’s is the vastly superior defensive squad, but did have a poor shooting game earlier at home in losing to the Wildcats by six. The Hawks have played far more consistently down the stretch, and it’s impossible to overlook that Davidson is 0-11 ATS at home playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games.

Nebraska looks to have gotten back on track with three straight wins. The Cornhuskers are 7-2 SU/ATS away from home. Outscoring foes by 7.6 PPG. It’s tough to argue with UCLA at home with a 13-1 SU record, but Nebraska can break teams down with execution on both sides of the floor, and they are the far better defensive squad (39% vs 43% SP). The Children of the Corn 15-3 ATS in away games after two or more consecutive wins.

I’m a little concerned with how Green Bay destroyed Fort Wayne by 17 almost three weeks ago at the same place. But with the Phoenix down two points, it brings this into play. Horizon tourney home favorites priced at 5 points or fewer are 16-0 SU/ATS since 2014. It will end eventually, I just don’t think it’s tonight. 

Towson has dominated the series at 6-0 SU. Nevertheless, I see the Tigers are 2-10 SU on the road while Stony Brook is a sharp 10-3 SU at home. Both clubs are solid defensively, while lacking consistency in making shots. However, I note that Towson is 2-5 ATS this season after making 39% or higher on threes, while Stony Brook is 20-5 ATS playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games.

Eastern Washington might be only 13-17, but they have won eight in a row and are tied for second in the Big Sky. What happened? Their schedule was too ambitious, which eroded EWU players' offensive confidence. The Eagles are not a good defensive team anyway, and the lack of making shots seeped onto the other side of the floor. Now, the EWU offense is clicking, shooting over 54% during the 8-0 SU/ATS surge. And not surprisingly, the defense improved. It’s Senior Night for the Eagles, who are 8-2 SU at home vs Idaho, and they are 11-1 ATS after successfully covering the spread in four or more consecutive games.

The two best teams in the CAA collide. Both teams are playing extremely well and are similar offensively except Wilmington makes a much higher percentage of threes (36 vs. 29). The other big difference besides the Seahawks being at home is that UNC-W is the superior rebounding team, swiping more chances on the offensive end and limiting putbacks by the opposition. Add in the home team negates Charleston’s edge of getting to the free throw by matching them. The last 19 times Wilmington was favored, they won the next contest by 9.6 PPG.    

Utah Tech is trying to tie Utah Valley for first place in the WAC and plays them next week at home. That might be a moot point if they don’t win at Southern Utah, which is 6-19 SU in line games. I’m looking for UT’s good shooting club to take advantage of So. Utah’s mediocre defense. A rested Thunderbirds squad is not necessarily a good one at 1-12 SU, playing only their 2nd game in 8 days.

St. Thomas played a perfect game their last time out in a blowout of N. Dak. St., winning by 22. The Tommies shot over 51% on the season, and they’ve been even hotter of late. Having lost 99-94 at Omaha, they want revenge. Also, the Tommies are 8-1 ATS at home this month, while Omaha is 3-7 ATS this month on the road. 

Since Jan. 14, Sam Houston State is 11-1 with a 9-3 ATS mark. Missouri State is the opposite, losers of six in a row (though 3-3 ATS) because they have made 40% or less of shots in four of those contests or played poor defense. Teams like SHS off a blowout win by 30 points or more over a conference rival, a good team (60% to 80%), playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) are 42-14 ATS, winning by an average of 12.8 PPG.

Ea. Tenn. St. lost on Senior Day to Wofford by three points, because they were 3-12 on threes and 13-22 from the line, when they normally make 34% and 75% respectively. As Southern Conference champs, I believe their focus will be quite sharp, and they are 8-2 and 7-2-1 ATS at Mercer. 

South Alabama is in a four-way tie for first place in the Sun Belt. The Jaguars have clear edges over Southern Miss, making 47% of shots and holding foes to 38%. Another large factor in USA’s favor is that they win the turnover battle at +3.5 vs. the Golden Eagles at -0.6. The deciding factor for me is Southern Miss is -7.6 PPG on the road, and the Jaguars are +12.6 PPG at home. 

Abilene Christian has won three of four, but all victories have come at home. The Wildcats are 1-5 SU on the WAC road, losing by 7.6 PPG. Utah Tech is 6-1 SU/ATS at home in conference action, winning by almost 6 PPG. The Trailblazers are also on an 8-2 SU/ATS tear, and the SU winner of their contests since mid-December is 17-0 ATS.

Two evenly matched teams from the Summit League that are atop the standings. Both clubs shoot the rock well from any point on the floor and play similarly on defense. Yet, North Dakota State is 10-4 on the road, including 7-0 SU in conference. Plus, the Bison have almost a +6 edge on the glass. St. Thomas is 12-1 SU at home; yet, ND State is 11-1 SU in away after playing three consecutive games as a favorite and 8-1 SU on the road after a game where they made 13 or more 3-point shots.

Campbell and Drexel have comparable records at 13-15 and 15-14, respectively. Nevertheless, they have one major difference: how they defend. Campbell permits foes to drain 48.6% of shot attempts, with Drexel at 41.5%. That’s a big edge for the Dragons, along with remembering losing by 21 at Campbell three weeks ago. Given the spread, it matters that Drexel is 17-3 SU at home after playing a home game.

These two are tied for 2nd place in the WCC, and finishing second matters because you get a bid to the semi-finals in the conference. Santa Clara won the first matchup at home, and you think that gives St. Mary’s an edge. However, the Gaels have Gonzaga at home Saturday, and that will be the last time they will face the Zags as conference foes at home. Coach Bennett will remind his team that both games matter, but you know the players expect to beat SC and want Gonzaga badly. Add in St. Mary’s is 6-23 ATS after a three-game road trip, and this becomes a two-point affair either way. 

This is a matchup of two run-of-the-mill American teams. The two teams appear to be going in opposite directions, with North Texas recently 4-1 SU and Charlotte 1-4 SU, but I’m not sure that continues. The Mean Green is a poor shooting team at 42.8%, and in away conference games, that drops to 39.5%. NT permits a solid 42.2% on the year, but that jumps to 45.3% in the past eight games. Charlotte is an all-or-nothing club when it comes to marksmanship, like a Moet faucet, hot or cold. At home, the 49ers are at 46.6%, and in home conference games, that ticks up to 47.5%. Here is one big difference: Home teams have ruled this series, and Charlotte is 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS, and wins by at least 5 points. 

Robert Morris has the better team and record, but each squad is on runs if 6-1 SU/ATS. This makes me wonder why RM is such a home favorite because both clubs are shooting the ball well and playing quality defense. The line suggests the oddsmakers understand the Colonials expect to win under Coach Toole, and they are 21-5 ATS off three straight wins against conference rivals. The clincher for me, RM is 12-1 ATS in February the past two years, knowing how to close the regular season. 

After a very poor start, the Flames got important players back and are 11-3 SU since. All facets have improved, and UIC’s defense has held three consecutive foes to under 40% shooting.  Bradley has not played poorly at 5-3 SU, yet is off a bit on the road at 2-4 ATS in recent Valley games. During UIC’s hot stretch, they’ve won by an average of 10.2 PPG, and they’ll go for the sweep.

Coastal Carolina has been flipped to a road favorite at Georgia State. Neither of these Sun Belters shoots well, each below 42%, but Georgia State is a pathetic 38%. Chances are the Eagles won’t do great because the Chanticleers hold teams to 39.6% from the field. With Coastal Carolina 11-3 SU after playing a game as an underdog, winning by 5.7 PPG, they cover. 

Neither of these CAA teams is playing especially well at this time, with losing records in their last five games (Drexel) and past six outings (Towson). Both are slow-paced, defensive-minded clubs. However, Drexel is a solid 9-4 SU/ATS at home, while Towson has really scuffled away from home at 2-9 SU. Beyond this edge, Drexel has converted shots at a much higher rate over the last month (47.3% vs 43.8%), giving the Dragons a bit of an offensive edge. The final selling point for me, Drexel is 21-4 SU at home after playing two consecutive games as a road underdog.

Wyoming is 3-8 SU/ATS in its latest conference clashes. Grand Canyon recently lost at home to New Mexico, but turned right around with a road sweep at San Jose St. and San Diego St., with decisive wins. That gives them confidence back home with the Cowboys 1-8 and 2-7 ATS on the road. With GCU 10-1 SU in home games after three consecutive conference games, winning by an average of 14.4 PPG, they wallop Wyoming. 

Buffalo is 7-4 and 8-3 ATS in the road uniform. UMass is 4-3 in the MAC at home with only one cover. By the numbers, these two are evenly matched. Add in that UMass has covered one of its last dozen February home games and I’ll take the points. 

South Alabama lost in OT at home, coming off a three-game road trip. This is Troy’s fourth straight away game, and they have not covered one yet. Given the spread, USA is 10-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3.

First place Wilmington plays defense (40.6% SP), rebounds (+7.1 differential), and doesn’t make many mistakes (9.9 TOs). Campbell does basically the opposite in each category. Campbell does play well here and there and is 9-3 SU at home, but the Seawolves are 9-2 SU away, and they are 17-1 as faves, winning by 9.1 PPG. 

Neither team shoots well, but St. Joe’s defense can bottle up a poor Loyola squad. In St. Joe’s last 14 games, the winner is 13-1 ATS. 

Miami-0 looks to stay unbeaten, hosting Bowling Green. In the previous meeting, the Falcons only lost by 10, but were down 26 at halftime as the RedHawks let up, especially in the final five minutes. As I’ve said, Miami has gotten over the shakiness of being undefeated, winning by 16, 16 and 9 points in the last three games; the first and last of those were on the road. The Falcons do create issues in generating 15.5 TOs a game, but that drops to 12.9 on the road, with their shooting percentage defense over 44% in away games. Miami has too many ways to score for BG to keep pace. The RedHawks are 13-2 ATS after a combined score of 155 points or more and 8-0 ATS after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half.

These two teams remain in contention for the SBC title. However, the loser could be hurt badly because six teams are near the top. Texas St. has won six in a row, and they have been shooting lights out at a hard to comprehend 59% in their past three wins. South Alabama is on a 6-2 SU/ATS run, having shot over 51% in four of six trips to the hardwood. NO has played 5 of 6 at home, while USA played 4 of 5 on the road. The Bobcats are looking at regression after shooting 59% and 64% in the previous two contests and road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, scoring 74-78 PPG, against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, after scoring 95 points or more, are 6-31 ATS. 

Wilmington is in first place in the CAA and is a sharp 22-4 on the season. The Seahawks don’t bury teams; they systematically defeat them with a defense holding foes to 40.6% shooting and a mere 29.6% from behind the arc. On the surface, Monmouth is nothing special, yet they have won three straight and five of six. How? The Hawks rely on turnovers to generate offense, and in their past five contests, they have averaged over 16 miscues from opponents. Here is the rub, Wilmington only averages 9.9 TOs a game, and they have only 7.8 in their last half dozen outings. When the Seahawks defense is clamping down, they are 8-0 ATS after two or more consecutive Unders.

There are several similarities between these SEC partners. At the same time, there are significant differences, which explain why Vanderbilt is favored on the road. Vandy makes 10 threes a contest, shooting a solid 36%, which is exactly what Missouri allows by percentage. Vandy is also +3.5 in TO margin, with the Tigers at -1.1, leading to extra points for the visitor. In common foes, the Commodores are +8.1 PPG, Mizzou -1.3 PPG. Vandy is a solid 6-3 ATS as a road fave, with Missouri 6-12 ATS at home off an SEC setback. 

Both these C-USA teams hold foes below 40%. Yet, Jacksonville State leads the conference in the key metrics for playing defense. Louisiana Tech has real limitations on offense, which the Gamecocks can exploit. I think the wrong team is favored, and JSU is 10-2 SU off a loss against a conference rival, winning by 3.0 PPG on average.

These are two fast-paced clubs that get up and down the floor. These teams average 21 made three a game. However, because they face this so much in practice, both permit 31.7% or made threes. This season, there have been 13 games when the total is 180 or higher, and the UNDER is 10-3. Lastly, when the total is 160 or higher and a team like Arkansas after scoring 85 points or more three straight games, against an opponent after a combined score of 155 points or more three straight contests, the average total score the last 68 times this has happened is 178.1. Play UNDER.

Delaware is only 9-16 SU, but they are playing much better, having won three in a row and four of six, and are on a 5-1 ATS run. The Blue Hens have discovered making shots matters, hitting 51% orf better in four of the last half dozen tries. Western Kentucky scores 77 PPG despite shooting below 40% on the season. The Hilltoppers rely on pace and getting to the charity stripe to score that much. However, Delaware doesn’t foul much, and the oddsmakers total of 141.5 signals the Blue Hens preferred pace. Take the home dog. 

The RedHawks are the last remaining unbeaten in college hoops at 25-0. Miami-O is an elite offensive squad, scoring 92 PPG, connecting on over 53% of shot attempts, and 40% from deep. UMass is home, and they only lost by two at Miami three weeks ago, which should provide a lot of confidence. The Minutemen do bring concerns. In three of its last five games, they have shot over 50% from the field and 42% from deep, yet only won once. In comparable opponents, UMass is 5-6 SU, at -0.8 PPG. By comparison, the RedHawks are 12-0 (9-3 ATS), winning by 12.7 PPG. Can Miami lose, sure. However, I believe they have gotten past the fear of seeing the streak end, and they will just play their game. With the visitor 12-2 ATS after a combined score of 155 points or more, they stay perfect and cover. 

No question Xavier appears as a potential play. Villanova is a road favorite at a place that is tough to win at, and the Wildcats host Connecticut this Saturday. However, the Musketeers are 13-12 SU for a reason. The reason is a lack of defense, permitting 78.5 PPG on the season on 47% shooting allowed. That blows up to almost 86 PPG in the ‘Teers last seven outings at 49%. Nova is not former coach Jay Wright good, but they are 7-2 SU/ATS in road uniforms. The ‘Cats by 7