The Mets have won four of five while Miami has done the opposite at 1-4, including being hammered 9-4 as a favorite on Labor Day. The good news for the Marlins is that ace Sandy Alcantara (13-9, 3.54 ERA) will start on Tuesday. In 19 career appearances (10-9) against the Mets, Alcantara is 7-5 with a 2.82 ERA, proving he should have a far better record. The Mets will start lefty Sean Manaea (4-7, 4.70). In seven career games against the Marlins, including six starts, he is 2-3 with a 4.73 ERA, with a 5.74 ERA near South Beach. Miami is now five games back in the last NL WC and needs a miracle, but for tonight we know Manaea is 0-8 vs. an NL team with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse in the second half of the season.

Cubs have won three straight and are tied for the top WC spot in the NL. Clay Holmes (6-6, 2.09 ERA) has been great since joining the Cubs, and he’s had success against Miami with a 3.19 ERA in 13 career appearances (four starts) versus Miami. The Marlins will start right-hander Tyler Phillips (4-6, 3.43 ERA), who has improved, but he’s facing the top offense in baseball in numerous categories. Miami’s had their struggles with better competition and is 1-10 playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season.

Both teams are headed in different directions. And so are both pitchers and bullpens. The Pirates at -1. 

Hunter Brown has allowed a dozen runs in his last seven starts. However, he and Houston are only 3-4 because, other than the 11 the Astros scored in one contest, they have only tallied 17 in the other six games. They should do better against Chicago’s Luis Castillo, who has a 6.45 ERA since putting on a White Sox uniform. Take the ‘Stros at -1 since they are 9-1 in home games playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) in the second half of the season. (2.3 run differential)

Seattle’s Bryce Miller (4-8, 4.12 ERA) has been dreadful, allowing five or more runs in three straight starts. Miller's prospects today aren't great, as he’s 0-4 with a 6.64 ERA against Boston. Patrick Sandoval (1-3, 4.20 ERA) has pitched better of late than these numbers suggest, permitting two or fewer earned runs in six of his past seven starts. Let’s back Boston, who’s 9-0 in home games after allowing nine runs or more, with Miller 2-12 when the total is 7 to 8.5.

With the Yankees currently about a -180 ML favorite, sportsbooks offering a -1 RL are trying to chase bettors off that number, offering a mere 24-cent discount compared to the usual 40-cent lower price. This tells me they like the Yankees. And the standard RL (-1.5) is no bargain either at -110. After a no–show performance in Anaheim by New York on Monday, they bounce back behind Gerrit Cole to cover -1. 

The Rays swept San Diego in three tight games and are on a 6-1 move. After being more competitive after the All-Star break, the Mets have dumped three consecutive series. Tampa Bay has a five-game lead over the Yankees with four weeks to go and cannot let up against an inferior foe. Ian Seymour (9-5, 4.21 ERA) has thrown better in his past five outings with a 3.77 ERA, facing a Mets crew that is 14-24 vs LH starters. Robert Stock (0-3, 7.40 ERA) makes his sixth start this season, and as you can see, his stock is down. With the Mets 0-10 as a road underdog of +150 to +200, grab the Rays at -1. 

The series finale has two teams headed in opposite directions. Texas has lost four in a row, and Milwaukee has won four in a row. The Brewers' bats are back, averaging 6.75 RPG and over 11 hits. The Rangers have lost six of Kumar Rocker’s last nine starts, and his ERA in the past five outings is 6.0. The Brew Crew’s Dustin May (6-8, 4.56 ERA) is the #5 starter, but he’s backed up by the #3 bullpen, which has been even better recently. Consider an NL team scoring 4.7 or more runs a game against an ordinary AL starting pitcher (ERA= 4.70 to 5.70), with a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) are 64-20. Brewers at -1. 

The Padres have scored two runs in the series and are in danger of being swept at home, where they have won 15 of 19. Pittsburgh has not been an offensive juggernaut, with four total runs and seven in their past four outings. Recently, when San Diego has scored four or fewer runs in two consecutive games, they are on a 5-1 move. The last time Pittsburgh engineered a road sweep of July of 2025. The Pirates are 0-9 away after scoring and allowing three runs or less in the last two games. While the Friars and starter Randy Vasquez are 7-0 as a home favorite of -110 or higher.

Cleveland has won six straight, overcoming a 5-0 deficit last night to win in extra innings 8-6. The Guardians' #25 offense is churning during this streak, averaging 6.1 RPG. Though the Halos' Grayson Rodriguez (4-5, 6.41 ERA) is improving (3.33 ERA, last five starts), so is Guards left-hander Joey Cantillo (9-7, 3.73 ERA) with a 2.18 ERA in his last five starts. With the Angels 13-27 vs LH starters and Rodriguez 0-6 at home when the total is 8.5 to 10, grab the Guards. 

In the series opener between the Brewers and Mets, Kyle Harrison (10-3, 2.84 ERA) is slated to start for Milwaukee against fellow left-hander Zac Thornton (3-4, 3.04 ERA) for New York. For starters, besides the difference in season record between these two NL squads, Milwaukee is 26-12 vs. LH starters, while the Metropolitans are 12-24 against the same type of pitchers. Harrison has struggled a bit since being in the IL, which chases me off the standard RL with the Brew Crew. But I’ll grab them at -1 with the Mets 3-10 as an underdog of +100 or higher, losing by 2.1 RPG. 

Boston got a clutch win, coming from behind late to beat Miami 4-2. That loss leaves the Marlins four games out of the last Wild Card, and they also have to jump over Arizona. Boston looks close to a lock for the AL Wild Card, with still a chance to catch the Yankees for the top spot. Game 2 features Payton Tolle (8-6, 3.08 ERA) for Boston and Tyler Phillips (3-6, 3.67) for the Fish. Miami has scuffled with LH starters at 14-20, and is 0-7 vs. teams outscoring foes by 0.5 or more RPG in the second half of the season. Tolle has a sharp 2.37 ERA in his past five starts, and his teammates are 18-2 playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season.

Talk about two teams going nowhere. Colorado hits the road after a futile 0-6 homestand. Washington is missing its two top hitters, and it shows during an abysmal 1-8 slump. The Nationals at least have a ray of hope as their last two victories have come when Cade Cavalli (11-5, 3.22 ERA) has pitched. The right-hander has given up three earned runs or less in each of his past 13 starts, going 8-1 with 81 strikeouts in 68 innings. Conversely, the Rockies are sending out Ryan Feltner (5-7, 5.97 ERA). Over his last seven starts, Feltner has a 9.00 ERA. With the Nats struggling offense, I’ll pay the -140 at -1 believing they will win and trusting Cavalli who is 8-1 vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season, winning by 2.2 RPG. 

The Nationals are 2-8 over their past 10, and their top two stars are injured: shortstop CJ Abrams (ankle) and right fielder James Wood (oblique). Miami, which is 6-1 against Washington this year, will start right-hander Eury Perez (6-9, 3.23 ERA) on Saturday, and he has a 1.80 ERA over the past two months. The Nats have fallen out of the Wild Card race, while the Marlins are four games back and have more reason to play. Nats starter Jake Irvin (2-7, 5.80 ERA) has had a tough season, and his club is 2-21 off a one run loss versus a division rival. The Fish at -1. 

For Arizona, a 3-3 road trip to Atlanta and Boston is not a bad outcome. Cincinnati has lost three of four series and could be in trouble again in the white-hot desert. The series opener features a pair of lefties: Arizona's Eduardo Rodriguez (12-4, 2.71 ERA) opposing the Reds' Nick Lodolo (3-2, 4.52). Rodriguez has put together one of his best years, while Lodolo has been inconsistent and injured. Cincy is 13-15 vs. port-siders, while the D-Backs are 21-11. Back home, the Snakes are 13-3 after six or more consecutive road games, with E-Rod and company 5-0 vs. teams averaging 1.25 or more HR's a game in the second half of the season.

A decided pitching edge for Houston, with Peter Lambert (8-6, 3.11 ERA) taking on Grayson Rodriguez (3-5, 7.17 ERA). Both teams have not hit at all in the series, which pushes me away from the Astros on the standard RL to -1. The Angels are 11-23 as a road underdog of +125 to +175 and 4-12 away vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better.

St. Louis has taken two of the three against Cincinnati in this five-game series. With Chase Burns (14-2, 2.47 ERA) on the mound for the Reds, earning a third victory in this series could be challenging tonight. Cincy seldom makes it easy because of their #27 offense, but Matthew Liberatore (5-10, 5.07 ERA) is 0-4 in his past five starts with a 5.33 ERA. I’d prefer the standard RL, but don’t trust the Reds bats, though Bruns is 11-2 on the RL if his team is off a loss. Cincy at -1.

After losing six in a row to Arizona. Boston has bounced back and won the last two. Including Monday’s 11-1 massacre. Left-hander Ranger Suarez (4-3, 3.25 ERA) is scheduled to toe the rubber for the Red Sox, and he’ll face up-and-down Merrill Kelly (8-10, 4.44 ERA). I can’t ignore the BoSox are 16-1 playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. Or the Snakes are 1-9 after a loss by eight runs or more. Grab Boston at -1. 

Atlanta is trying to catch Milwaukee for the NL top seed (2 back) while attempting to end off the Dodgers (1 ahead) and not lose a bye in the playoffs. After losing a home series to Arizona, the Braves open a series against Minnesota. The Twins were swept at home by Philadelphia to fall to 13-26 against the NL. The Twins' Bailey Ober (7-4, 4.64 ERA) will start, and he’s been far from impressive (5.27 ERA L5 starts) despite his record. It's noteworthy Ober is 0-7 at home vs. teams averaging 1.25 or more HR's a game. Veteran lefty Martin Perez (8-6, 2.96 ERA) has been a big help for his club and he’s capable of limiting the Twinkies. 

Slumping Pittsburgh announced late Saturday night that Paul Skenes scheduled start on Sunday -- when Pittsburgh hosts the Boston Red Sox in the decisive contest of a three-game series -- would be pushed back to Wednesday. The Pirates will now start righty Lake Bachar (1-2, 3.97 ERA) in what will be a bullpen game. With the Pirates bullpen ranked #20 and Boston’s #4, if BoSox left-hander Patrick Sandoval (1-1, 3.30 ERA) does his job. Boston wins the series. With the Bucs 11-26 vs LH starters, that seems possible. With Boston 11-1 after six or more consecutive road games, they take the series. 

Surprisingly, Tampa Bay has lost twice at home to Baltimore this weekend. One could make the case that Baltimore’s left-hander Trevor Rogers (7-8, 4.21 ERA) is the better pitcher in this matchup compared to Freddy Peralta (5-9, 5.33 ERA). However, I think Peralta will settle in playing for the Rays, and this is his home debut, coming off a much better showing his last time out. Rogers is a 9-27 as an road underdog of +100 to +150 (team’s record), and the Rays are 23-11 vs L starters this season (15-2 at home). Add in Tampa Bay is 15-2 after two straight games with no home runs, and they salvage a win over the O’s. 

This series resumes after playing in the Field of Dreams Game on Thursday. The pitching matchup certainly favors the Phillies on Saturday, with Jesus Luzardo (10-5, 3.32 ERA) facing rookie Conner Prielipp (3-5, 4.79 ERA). Consider: NL favorites with a money line of -125 to -175, scoring 4.0 to 4.5 RPG, against an ordinary AL starter (ERA=4.30 to 5.70), with a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or fewer homers a start, are 37-7. 

Colorado has a chance to move out of sole possession of last place in the NL West when they seek a second consecutive road victory over San Francisco on Saturday afternoon. But the Rockies appear to be at a disadvantage pitching-wise with Michael Lorenzen (3-10, 6.83 ERA) facing Logan Webb (7-7, 3.59 ERA) of the Giants. Webb and San Fran are 7-1 against the Rockies at home, with him sporting a 1.29 ERA. Lorenzen has a 6.23 ERA in seven starts against this division rival. Look for the Giants to escape falling into the division basement, at least today. Take them at -1. 

The Chicago Cubs boast an 8-1 record in the last nine starts by Matthew Boyd (8-1, 3.50 ERA) since the left-hander returned from a torn meniscus on June 25. Boyd has a slim 1.58 ERA in seven career appearances (all starts) against the Cardinals. St. Louis starter is Michael McGreevy (4-9, 3.64 ERA), who is trending in the other direction. He had a 3-2 record on May 8 after defeating San Diego and is 1-7 since. The RH has a 7.94 ERA in four career appearances (all starts) vs. Chicago. With the Cubs 30-10 vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse, take them at -1 for the best value. 

The Dodgers blew a two-out lead in the 9th to give Milwaukee a much-needed win, which sent L.A. to 4-9 since July 31. Dodger Blue will try to get out of their funk with Yoshinobu Yamamoto (11-7, 2.65 ERA) taking the ball against Milwaukee left-hander Robert Gasser (3-4, 4.57 ERA), who has a 5.87 ERA on the road. L.A. is a solid 36-24 at home, 6-2 at Chavez Ravine when the total is 7 to 7.5 and 5-1 batting last when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%).

Backing a stellar system! Teams like the Rays, revenging a 3-game sweep, a good team (54% to 62%), playing a team with a losing record are 39-7, winning by 2.5 RPG. Playing it safe and backing Tampa Bay at -1. 

The Yankees have torn apart the Seattle bullpen, so if they stay even with Max Fried pitching, they should have a great opportunity to sweep the series. Road teams like the Mariners scoring

Merrill Kelly (8-9, 4.88 ERA) has been dominant against Colorado for five years as he enters a Wednesday afternoon start against right-hander Ryan Feltner (4-6, 5.71 ERA). Kelly is 10-3 (6-2 at home – 2.36 ERA) with a 3.08 ERA in 18 career appearances (all starts) against the Rockies. Kelly has also pitched much better of late with a 3.08 ERA in his past five starts, and he’s 4-0 in five NL West starts with a sharp 2.08 ERA. With the Snakes 22-4 playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) this season, winning by 2.6 RPG, let’s play it safe with the home team at -1. 

After losing four in a row to see their lead in the AL Central shrink, the White Sox took the last two games against Cleveland, and their lead is now four games over Detroit (in the loss column, as everyone plays 162 games). Cincinnati keeps teasing its fans that they can get back in the Wild Card race, but after being swept at Washington, the Reds are five games back and would have to jump several teams. Chicago will turn to right-hander Sean Burke (7-6, 3.08 ERA), who has a 2.14 ERA in his past 10 outings and a splendid 1.05 WHIP. Cincinnati left-hander Nick Lodolo (3-2, 4.60 ERA) returns from the IL after being sidelined with a blister on his left index finger and has struggled throughout the season. Cincy has averaged only six hits per game over their last half-dozen starts and doesn’t figure to do much against Burke, who has allowed two or fewer earned runs in eight straight starts. Lodolo and company are 3-8 as road underdogs of +125 to +175. With the Pale Hose 26-11 after three or more consecutive home games and 15-4 at the Rate vs. a bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities, they are the choice at -1 RL, which reduces risk. 

The Yankees are 30-29 since losing Aaron Judge to a fractured rib. New York expects to have Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Cody Bellinger back before the end of the season. On a video I did with Sean Higgs here, we talked about the Yankees' lack of offense, and as a team they are hitting .217 since Judge has been out. We agreed that for the Yanks to compete and win, pitching, not hitting, would be their calling card, and they are 16-10 of late. New York will start Ryan Weathers (5-7, 3.79 ERA), who is 2-0 with a 0.48 ERA in his past three starts and is coming off consecutive scoreless outings. Seattle is the only AL team with a worse batting average (.229) than the Yankees and is a season-worst seven games under .500. Bryan Woo (8-8, 4.31 ERA) figured to ascend to the ace of the Mariners by now, but he’s developed a mental block about pitching on the road and is 1-8 in a dozen away starts with a super-sized 6.71 ERA. With the Yankees #1 bullpen, the M’s are 4-18 in road games vs. a team with a bullpen WHIP of 1.35 or lower.

These two AL teams are two games back for the Wild Card and need to reach .500 to give themselves a realistic chance to make the postseason. Baltimore will face an old friend, who was just recently traded in Dean Kremer (1-4, 5.93), who has struggled all year, posting an 8.05 ERA the last month. Clearly, he’ll be extremely motivated to beat his old club in front of his new fans. The Orioles will utilize Trevor Rogers (7-7, 4.20 ERA), who is 4-1 in his past nine starts (seven that were quality starts), posting a 2.10 ERA. Know this about Rogers:

*6-0 on the road with a money line of -100 to -150.

*8-0 in road starts when playing against a team with a losing record.

*8-0 vs. an AL team with an on-base percentage .320 or worse in the second half of the season.

Lastly, road favorites after scoring 10 or more runs are 24-8 since July started.

The Cardinals are emerging from their slumber, winning four of six, including winning a series on the road at Yankee Stadium. Last night’s narrow win over Colorado at 3-2 was closer than expected, but they should do more damage against the Rockies' Kyle Freeland (3-10, 6.81 ERA), who is off a rare complete-game win. In Freeland’s last eight road starts, he’s allowed 41 runs in 40 2/3 innings. The Cards' Matthew Liberatore (5-8, 4.97 ERA) won’t remind anyone of Clayton Kershaw, but he and his mates are 18-5 vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs a game on the season. Snap up the Redbirds with the Rocks 0-7 vs. teams averaging 2.75 or fewer extra-base hits per game in the second half of the season.

The Brewers remain strong and are 23-13 against the AL. Minnesota just lost an ugly series at K.C. and is 12-21 vs the NL. Minnesota starter Zebby Matthews ha a 7.33 ERA on the road. Note that NL offensive teams scoring 4.7 or more RPG against an average AL starting pitcher (ERA=4.70 to 5.70), with good control (less than 1.75 BBs/start) are 61-19, winning by 2.3 RPG. Let’s go conservative and take the Brew Crew at -1 RL. 

The Padres rebounded last night and pounded E. Rodriguez for seven runs in a 9-4 victory. In Game 3, San Diego should have a distinct pitching edge with Casey Mize (4-6, 2.70 ERA) against the D-Backs' Mitch Bratt (0-1, 5.23 ERA), Mize comes over from Detroit, where he’s thrown well all season. While Bratt has less than 21 innings tossed in five starts, permitting more walks than Ks. (15-12). With the Friars on a 10-2 run, they win Wednesday.

Miami has rebounded from their long losing streak to win six of seven and climb back into the Wild Card chase. But the Braves have also heated up, winning five straight. The pitching matchup modestly favors Atlanta, with Grant Holmes (6-4, 3.88 ERA). The Marlins will counter Ryan Gusto (0-2, 5.31 ERA), who has a 6.23 road ERA. Gusto does a pretty good job not walking opposing batters, yet Atlanta is 15-2 vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start).

Cleveland is four back of the White Sox in the AL Central and has a shaky hold of the last Wild Card spot. The Guardians bolstered their postseason chances by acquiring All-Star pitcher Foster Griffin, first baseman Nathaniel Lowe and outfielder Jo Adell on trade deadline day Monday to add punch to the lineup and another starting pitcher. With the Mets, it’s known they will field a far different team in 2027 and are playing out the string this year. Cleveland has lost eight of its last 11, falling out of first place in the AL Central, and they will use LH Joey Cantillo (8-6, 3.88 ERA), with New York 9-21 vs. lefties. The Mets will counter with lefty Sean Manaea (2-5, 4.42), with the Guards 22-17 vs LH starters. With the Mets and Manaea 1-12 off a loss, grab Cleveland. 

Granted, Milwaukee had a long flight home from L.A. yesterday, but motivation should not be a conundrum. For starters, the Brewers were shut out yesterday, which can’t sit well. Additionally, the last time these division rivals met, Pittsburgh swept the home series. The thought was the Pirates might jump up the standings with that sweep, but instead have gone 6-10 and more recently 3-8. The Game 1 matchup features Brandon Sproat (3-6, 5.05 ERA) opposing Bubba Chandler (3-8, 4.56) with a pair of young right-handers searching for consistency. I’ll follow the situation as teams like the Brewers, revenging a three-game sweep, with a winning record on the season, playing a losing team, are a superb 78-24.

Philadelphia ended its four-game losing streak yesterday but is only is 3-8 in its last 11 games. The pitching matchup looks good with Zack Wheeler (10-2, 2.53 ERA) taking on Kyle Bradish (7-9, 3.74 ERA). Wheeler didn’t have it this past Monday in Miami, permitting five runs in three-plus innings. Look for him to bounce back after a poor outing with the Phillies 16-6 as a road favorite of -125 to -175.

The Dodgers moved Yoshinobu Yamamoto (11-6, 2.72 ERA) back a day, and I think that helps him lead his club to a victory. Boston just completed a 21-4 July and is brimming with confidence. The Red Sox are set to send left-hander Payton Tolle (6-6, 3.32 ERA) to the mound, who has been solid all season. I’m expecting an LA bounce-back, and they are 11-1 vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.20 or better, winning by 2.6 RPG. Dodgers on -1 RL. 

The Braves won the first two contests of the four-game series and hold a 6-3 lead over Washington in the season series. Atlanta will rely on Reynaldo Lopez (4-3, 3.64 ERA) to continue winning, and he is 22-9 against NL East foes and 23-11 when his team is off a win. Miles Mikolas (3-7, 5.65 ERA) has allowed 16 runs in his last 17 innings, which includes six long balls. That could spell trouble for Mikolas and the Nationals' terrible bullpen, as the Braves have four home runs in the series thus far. Not interested in a regular RL play because of the Nats' road record but will take the Bravos at -1.

One of the best teams in baseball, Milwaukee, takes on one of the worst, the L.A. Angels. The Halos are in full sell mode and have already made moves, and many more are expected by the trade deadline. Rookie right-hander Ryan Johnson (2-5, 7.34 ERA) will go for LA, and one can tell he’s had his issues. The Brewers will counter with a rookie of their own in left-hander Shane Drohan (5-4, 3.51 ERA). Drohan has pitched better on the road with a 3.16 ERA, and in all night games, the ERA drops to 2.43. The Halos are 11-19 vs LH starters. The Brew Crew bullpen got roughed up in Frisco, but they are 10-0 after a 5-game span the bullpen ERA was 6.50 or worse, winning by 2.4 RPG. The Crew at -1. 

Tampa Bay is a dominating 40-16 at home, the best in baseball. The White Sox are off a grueling four-game series at home against the Yankees, where they earned two clutch extra innings wins, which leaves their bullpen depleted. Erick Fedde (5-6, 4.25 ERA), takes the ball for Chicago, and the Pale Hose has won his last six starts because they have AVERAGED 9.0 RPG. That doesn’t figure to happen against the Rays Nick Martinez (10-2, 2.45), as this combo has also won six straight. Situationally, Martinez and friends are 12-1 vs. an AL team with an on-base percentage of .330 or lower, while Fedde and company are 1-12 vs. teams averaging 0.85 or more SB's a game.

Washington is a handful on the road at 32-20. But Atlanta has that matching record playing at home.  Jake Irvin (2-4, 5.23 ERA) comes off the IL for the Nats after two months, and he doesn’t figure to go far, which means the #29 bullpen takes over, which Atlanta can exploit. Starter Grant Holmes (6-4, 3.79 ERA) has a 2.22 ERA in his past four starts, all Atlanta victories. The Nats won the last two games at Atlanta in May, and the Braves are 10-3 revenging a loss as a home favorite in Hotlanta and 7-2 at home playing with double revenge. 

The Dodgers don’t give away many games, but their usually top-notch pitching gave up seven runs to a weak Seattle lineup. Eric Lauer of the Dodgers has been on a mission since joining them, and this combo is 8-0. 

Chicago’s Davis Martin has gotten roughed up at home the last two starts, which seems like an issue against the surging Yankees. Cam Schlitter and the Yankees are 11-2 vs. an AL team with a slugging percentage .410 or lower. 

Phillies have looked flat and have now lost four straight series, with two losses in Miami. I look for a bounce-back effort from the Phils, swinging the bats with more authority and Jesus Luzardo (9-5, 3.31 ERA) tying up the Marlins bats. The Phils lefty and teammates are 8-0 as a road favorite of -110 or higher (winning by 3.0 RPG). Philly at -1. 

Let’s start with the obvious, the Red Sox are on a 20-4 run and the A’s are 4-19 run. Boston’s Jake Bennett (6-3, 2.58 ERA) has a 1.71 ERA in his past four starts while the A’s Gage Jump (3-6, 4.42) has an 8.31 ERA in the same number of recent starts. Then the bullpen ERA difference is almost 2.5 runs. The BoSox are 9-1 vs. teams outscored by 0.5 or more runs a game in the second half of the season. The Sawx at -1. 

Tampa Bay is 38-15 at home and 26-9 against AL competitors. Rays starter Griffin Jax (6-7, 3.89 ERA) has won five of his past seven starts and has a solid 3.68 ERA at home. Texas starter Cal Quantrill (3-3, 4.05 ERA) has a 5.05 ERA in his past four outings and faces the #2 batting vs. RH starters. Please note that AL home teams like the Rays, allowing 4.4 or less RPG, after a combined score of three runs or fewer in two straight games are 53-18. 

Cleveland has lost five in a row, scoring only 10 runs, including being shut out in their last two games. It won’t get easier for the Guardians facing the Reds' Chase Burns (12-1, 2.42 ERA). The Guards will send out Slade Cecconi (4-7, 4.60), who has an ERA over 5.00 in his past four starts. Cincinnati just won three straight road series and looks to continue their good play at home. Cecconi is 2-13 since 2024 in interleague action (team’s record). Then we have this nugget: AL road teams with an OBP of .320 or lower, against a very good NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.25 or lower, batting .175 or worse over their last three games are 37-8. Take Reds at -1 RL. 

As hot as Boston has been, Dylan Cease was too much for BoSox yesterday. Kevin Gausman (4-9, 4.51 ERA) will pitch for the Blue Jays, and he and Toronto have lost seven straight games he’s started, plus four in a row on the road. Ranger Suarez (4-3, 3.15 ERA) has not pitched since he strained his groin July 5, and he and the Red Sox are 7-0 vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or less runs a game. Boston bounces back in this one. 

Not unexpectedly, Arizona won Friday behind Eduardo Rodriguez, who continues his great season. Now it is Washington’s turn, with Foster Griffin (11-2, 2.69 ERA) having made eight consecutive starts without allowing more than one run, a franchise record. Yes, Arizona has won four in a row and 10 of 12, but another lefty, Mitch Bratt (0-0, 5.06), has made three shaky starts. Both teams have enjoyed success against LH pitchers, but Washington has the better one in this matchup. The Nats are 16-4 when Griffin starts and 9-1 after he’s given up two or fewer earned runs in his last two outings.

The first-place White Sox have won three consecutive series and host Houston, who just swept suddenly hapless Miami. The shocking Pale Hose are 31-17 on the South Side, which includes 24-13 versus AL opponents. Chicago will send out Davis Martin (9-5, 3.31 ERA), who is 5-1 (Sox 7-1) with a sterling 1.80 ERA at home. The Astros will start a laboring Spencer Arrighetti (7-5, 4.34 ERA), who has a 5.54 ERA on the road and the two months his ERA is a large 7.04. Take note that Arrighetti and teammates are 0-12 vs. an AL team with a slugging percentage of .410 or worse in the second half of the season since last year. 

The Phillies could easily have won last night’s game against the Dodgers, but mind-boggling base-running mistakes eliminated that opportunity. They will go for the series win, but it doesn’t look easy with Aaron Nola (3-7, 5.68 ERA) pitching. Nola has been better this month with an ERA of 4.00, but it’s still hard to overcome the dozen long balls allowed in his last seven starts, with L.A. #8 in dingers. Eric Lauer (4-5, 4.81 ERA) was frustrated this year in Toronto, and once he signed with Dodger Blue, he vowed to prove the Blue Jays misused him. Lauer is 3-0 with a 3.12 ERA since joining the Dodgers, and lifetime has a 0.93 ERA vs. the Phils. It’s hard to ignore that L.A. is 9-1 on the road when the money line is +125 to -125.

Losing to the Reds Burns at home is no disgrace for Seattle. Not being able to knock around Brady Singer (4-9, 4.56 ERA) would be for the Mariners. The M’s will counter with Emerson Hancock (6-4, 3.17 ERA), whose ERA is even better at home at 2.92. With Singer 11-26 as an underdog of +125 to +175 (team’s record), Seattle is the choice at -1.

After a good start, San Diego has drifted downward and is now below .500. Despite having a collection of recognizable names on the lineup card, the Padres are #26 in scoring, about where they have been all year. Atlanta’s offense has been inconsistent the last six weeks, but is still #6 and has perked up by winning four of five. The Braves should bash around Walker Buehler (5-5, 5.36 ERA), who has a 16.36 ERA in his last three trips to the mound, having allowed 20 runs and six homers in 11 innings. The Friars’ don’t figure to do much damage against Reynaldo Lopez (4-2, 3.50 ERA), who has allowed one or fewer earned runs in seven of his last eight starts made this season. The Pads are 8-17 away playing against a team with a winning record and 1-7 if they have a winning record in the second half. Atlanta is 15-7 after three or more consecutive home games.

Three days ago, Minnesota was .500 and in the thick of the AL Wild Card chase. Since then, the Twins have lost three in a row, by a massive 22 runs, and have slid to the periphery of the race. On the other hand, Cleveland picked up the pace in winning six of eight and is two back of the White Sox in the AL Central. In Game 2 of the series, two lefties will battle; the Twins' Kendry Rojas (1-1, 2.79 ERA) will take on the Guardians' Parker Messick (8-5, 2.73 ERA). Messick has been outstanding since coming up with the Guards last year. Rojas has a couple of starts in eight appearances, and while the ERA is good, 16 walks in 19 1/3 innings is not. Additionally, the Minny bullpen is #26; Cleveland’s is #9. With the Guardians 13-7 at home vs LH starters and the Twinkies 4-10 after two or more consecutive losses, grab the home team at -1. 

The pitching matchup would lend itself to runs being scored with a pair of left-handers, with Washington's Andrew Alvarez (2-3, 4.04 ERA) facing Colorado's Kyle Freeland (2-8, 7.36 ERA). They are backed up by the Nationals' #30 bullpen, with the Rockies at #27. The OVER is further supported with Washington #2 in road scoring and Colorado #5 in home runs scored.

As far as the side, the Rocks are 23-27 at home, not too terrible; however, they are 1-11 in Denver after two or more consecutive Overs. The Nats are a sensational 30-19 on the road, and the drill down finds them 17-6 away vs LH starters. Colorado is 10-18 against LH starters anywhere.

This is a tough spot for the Dodgers. Not only having to travel on the road after a Sunday night game, but also having played twice yesterday. While a trip from New York to Philadelphia is not long, it’s still cumbersome. The Phillies should be ready after losing the series to the Mets at home. You know Cristopher Sanchez (11-4, 2.62 ERA) will be ready to face an inconsistent Emmet Sheehan (4-6, 4.81). With the total at 8.5, the Phils are 26-6 when the total is 8 to 8.5, winning by nearly two RPG. The Phillies at -1.

Detroit has won 11 of its last 14 games and will try to complete a three-game sweep of the Angels. The Tigers are 24-14 since June 1st, which is the second-best record in MLB. Casey Mize (4-6, 2.79 ERA) has pitched into hard luck, but with Detroit’s improved offense, they should tally runs against rookie right-hander Ryan Johnson (1-4, 6.75 ERA). Johnson has improved of late, but he and the Halos are 1-8 in his nine starts. With the Tigers 6-0 after allowing one run or less in two straight games, I’ll grab them at -1. 

These two have played two decidedly one-sided contests, making this the rubber match for the series. Both starting pitchers are lefties, going in opposite directions. Washington’s Foster Griffin (10-2, 2.77 ERA) is a revelation at 30, while the Athletics Jacob Lopez (4-3, 6.83 ERA) has an 8.31 ERA at home. The Nationals are 19-12 vs LH starts, with the A’s 12-21 vs portsiders. Washington is 29-19 on the road with the Green and Gold a baseball worst 20-29 at home.  With the Nats 8-0 after a loss by eight runs or more, they take the series. 

The Cubs are not great in interleague play (12-16), but Minnesota is worse (12-20). The Twins Zebby Matthews (4-6, 4.57 ERA) has struggled mightily away from home, sporting a 6.17 ERA in six road starts, and will start today.  Shota Imanaga (5-8, 4.17 ERA) will start for Chicago, searching for his first win at Wrigley Field since May 7. Despite Imanaga’s dry run at home, he and the Cubs are 15-3 at Wrigley when playing against a team with a losing record. Mathews has not done well as a large away underdog and is 0-3 as a road underdog of +150 to +200. Take the Cubs at -1 to topple the Twinkies. 

This is the alternate game on FOX. Seattle’s woes continued, being shutout 7-0 on Friday, their sixth loss in seven contests. The Mariners' Bryan Woo (7-6, 4.23 ERA) will look to change their luck, as the RH hurler is 6-0 at home (M’s 7-1) with an exquisite 2.10 ERA. Even with the W, the Giants are 20-30 on the road, though they have won three straight overall. Logan Webb (5-7, 3.86 ERA) will start for San Fran, but he’s lost his past two starts, giving up 12 runs on 16 hits over 10 innings. With Woo 17-2 at home when his team is off a loss and 10-0 at home against NL foes, take Seattle at -1.

The focus is on the starting pitchers. All-Star Jesus Luzardo (8-4, 3.51 ERA) is slated to start for the Phillies against fellow left-hander Sean Manaea (2-4, 4.56). New York is 8-19 vs LH starters, and Luzardo is 5-1 with a 2.82 ERA the past two months (Phillies 9-1). Manaea has a 6.75 ERA in division games this season and is 2-3 with a 5.05 ERA in nine games (seven starts) against the Phillies. Luzardo is 6-2 with a 3.16 ERA in 12 career starts (Phillies 9-3) when facing the Mets. With the total at 8.5, Manaea is 2-12 (team’s record) when the total is 8 to 8.5, losing by 3.1 RPG. Let’s grab the Phils at -1. 

Seattle is glad to be back home after a disastrous road trip that sent them back under .500. Even with that, the Mariners are just two games back in the AL West race. Bryce Miller (4-3, 2.18 ERA) is in the midst of a fine season and has an amazing 0.40 ERA at home. Miller should have a better record, yet the M’s #27 offense is problematic, but San Fran’s is not a whole lot better at #24. The Giants are 3-15 vs. AL starting pitchers with ERAs of 2.90 or better. And, the Mariners are 28-4 in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season. Play M’s on the -1 RL. 

After a 3-6 start and 4.45 ERA in his first 12 starts this season, Robbie Ray (8-6, 3.45 ERA) has gone 5-0 with a 1.85 ERA in his last six starts. That could spell bad news for Colorado, which is 16-32 on the road and 9-18 vs LH starters. Making matters worse is Rockies starter Tanner Gordon (0-2, 6.95 ERA) in three lifetime starts against San Fran is 0-2 with an 8.36 ERA. With the Giants offense having scored six or more runs five times in its last eight tries, and Ray is 8-0 in home starts on the RL vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game, I’ll stick conservative and back the Giants on the -1 RL. 

After hosting the NL Central-leading Milwaukee for five games this week, the Cardinals welcome the NL East-best Atlanta to St. Louis for the opener of a three-game series. The Redbirds were handled by Milwaukee 4-1 in the series, and they have a tough opening assignment against veteran left-hander Chris Sale (9-6, 2.27 ERA). St. Louis right-hander Kyle Leahy (7-4, 3.86 ERA) has been a solid starter. With the Cards scuffling and the Braves offense back in gear with 11 or more hits in five of the last six contests, hard to ignore that Atlanta is 13-2 on Fridays (mostly series openers) and 6-0 away, revenging a loss where the opponent scored 10 or more runs. Bravos on -1 RL. 

Seattle should be angry after being swept at Miami, to tumble to 20-27 on the road. If a team can’t cut it away from home, playing the Rays in St. Pete’s is not the idea of a vacation. Tampa Bay is 33-14 at home and is 5-1 at home against the Mariners the past two seasons. The home team is 10-2 recently, plus the Rays are 19-3 after four or more consecutive home games. Nick Martinez has thrown exceptionally for his new squad, and that combination is 9-1 vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse.

The Angels ripped the Rangers 13-1 last night, after falling 8-3 on Tuesday. Ther series finale sets up as a decent starting pitcher matchup of Angels left-hander Reid Detmers (3-6, 4.13 ERA) vs. the Rangers Nathan Eovaldi (9-7, 4.02 ERA). Though Detmers has generally pitched better this season than the last two, “Evo” as he is known, is 4-0 with a 3.24 ERA since June 14, with 33 strikeouts and just four walks against the Halos. I believe you have to take into consideration that the Angels are 1-11 in road games after a win by four runs or more, while Eovaldi and Texas are 11-0 in the second half of the season since last year. 

The Yankees are a mess, losers of 9 of 11. Tampa Bay is sizzling, winners of 11 of 14. The Rays are also owning New York at 6-2 after consecutive home victories. The Yankees will have some sort of bullpen game, while the Rays trot out ace Drew Rasmussen (7-4, 2.78 ERA), who has a 0.82 ERA in June.  New York is 4-14 after batting .200 or worse over a five-game span, while the Rays are on a 14-1 run in home games against division opponents. The best price in Tampa Bay is at -1. 

In this AL/NL matchup, we have two starting pitchers headed in opposite directions. Foster Griffin (9-2, 2.87 ERA), who should have been an All-Star, has a 1.15 ERA in his past five starts. The Astros Spencer Arrighetti (7-4, 3.81 ERA) has a 7.33 ERA in his last five outings. Griffin is 10-0 in night games (Nats record), while Arrighetti is 0-7 vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game in the second half of the season since 2025. Nationals win. 

The Tigers and A’s have the same record at 41-50, but one club is moving up, and the other is going downward. Detroit is on a 6-1 surge and will start Troy Melton (4-1, 2.05 ERA) after yesterday’s 6-2 win. The Sacramento squad will be looking to snap a four-game losing streak, and they have lost eight of their past nine games. Jeffrey Springs (3-8, 5.79 ERA) will toe the rubber for the Green and Yellow, who are coming off a disastrous June in which he surrendered 30 earned runs in 27 innings (10.00 ERA) and served up 12 home runs. In the Tigers' last nine wins, each was by multiple runs. Contrast that with the Athletics, whose 13 of past 14 defeats are by two or more runs. I’ll stay conservative and take DEETroit at -1 RL. 

Marlins right-hander Max Meyer (9-1, 2.53 ERA), a first-time All-Star, is having a career year as he ended last week top 10 in the National League in various categories, including innings (103) and strikeouts (112). He’ll take the ball tonight for Miami, who is on a 9-3 run. Seattle was 5-1 on their homestand, but is a pedestrian 20-24 away from Coffee Town. The Mariners will start Bryan Woo, who is 1-6 with a sickly 6.38 road ERA, while a stud at home. With the Marlins hot and the combo of them and Meyer 9-0 at home this season, Miami makes it happen. 

A very rare Sunday night game in Anaheim because of Peacock/NBCSN. Having taken the first two contests in this series, Boston goes for the sweep with Ranger Suarez (4-3, 2.94 ERA) on the bump. The Red Sox have won seven of nine and 8 of 11, as they continue their three-city road trip. Boston has started to hit, averaging 4.9 RPG. On the other side of the coin, the Angels have dumped five in a row, scoring eight times. The Halos are 8-16 vs LH starters. Dating back to last season, Boston is 10-1  vs. teams outscored by 0.5 or more runs a game in the second half, with Suarez 6-0 vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or fewer as a Red Sox. Take Boston on -1 RL. 

The Cubs have dropped the first two games of the series, as once again the offense has gone cold like a beer at the bottom of the cooler. Chicago will face Matthew Liberatore, who has a 6.48 ERA in two starts at Wrigley Field. The Cubs will look to salvage one game in the series behind Javier Assad, who has a 0.68 ERA against the Cards at Wrigley, all wins. Note, favorites on a two-game losing streak, trying to avoid a sweep, are 21-7 this season and on a 10-0 run. 

The Braves won the opener 5-3 on Friday to hand New York its 11th loss in 13 games. Atlanta should also have a decided pitching edge with Chris Sale (8-6, 2.10 ERA) opposing New York's Sean Manaea (1-3, 4.71). Manaea is 2-11 when the total is 8 to 8.5, and the Mets are 2-13 in road games after scoring four runs or less in three straight games.

The Yankees have lost seven straight, have a lifeless offense, and no help is on the way. Well, maybe a little in Minnesota. Granted, the Twins have won 10 of 16, but recent visits have produced a 5-25 record at Yankee Stadium. Gerrit Cole (2-3, 4.06 ERA) has a 6.12 ERA in his past five starts after returning from Tommy John surgery with two scoreless outings. Nonetheless, the righty is 5-0 with a 2.43 ERA in six career starts against the Twins. Minnesota rookie Mike Paredes (0-1, 4.26 ERA) is nothing special, and the Twinkies bullpen, on average, gives up two more runs a game per nine innings compared to New York. Take the Yanks on the -1 RL. 

A self-described "journeyman, four-A player spending time between Triple-A and the big leagues," Foster Griffin (8-2, 2.93 ERA) has learned to throttle back his approach and set up hitters. It’s paying off at 30, who posted a 1.15 ERA in five June starts. Griffin is facing a strong Pittsburgh lineup that is only 5-16 vs LH starters. Mitch Keller (6-5, 4.87 ERA) has an ERA of almost 7.0 in his last 10 starts, and he’s 8-18 away vs. teams averaging 1.25 or more HR's a game (Pirates record). Match that against Griffin, who is 9-0 pitching at night (team’s record), and let’s take the Nats. 

Today, Cincinnati vs Milwaukee should be a miserable contest for hitters. That’s because the contest features a pitching matchup of the major league’s ERA and strikeout leader, Milwaukee’s Jacob Misiorowski (9-3, 1.45 ERA), and the Reds’ ace, Chase Burns (9-1, 2.36). As much as I like Burns, I cannot ignore this system: Favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 like the Brewers, a good offensive team scoring 4.7 or more RPG, against a very good NL starting pitcher (ERA

Miami has beaten Colorado eight times in a row and looks to add another tonight. The Marlins finished June with the best record in baseball (21-6) and are just two back in the NL wild card chase. Max Meyer (9-0, 2.60 ERA) will start for Miami, though he has a 6.60 ERA in three starts in Denver; he appears to be far more polished this season. Who is not polished is Rockies veteran Kyle Freeland (1-7, 7.50), who has not won a game since April 7. Check out this system for today: NL teams like Miami hitting .255 or lower, against a team with a bad bullpen (ERA >=5.00), with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70%, are 56-14 the past nine years. 

After a dull stretch, Tampa Bay is sizzling, on a 6-0 run. The hitting and starting pitchers are hot, and so is the bullpen. Kansas City is the complete opposite, losers of five of six, outscored an unfathomable 56-16. Rays starter Shane McClanahan (6-5, 3.30 ERA) has scuffled the last month (5.79 ERA), but he’s facing a K.C. squad that is 6-17 vs LH starters. The Royals’ Seth Lugo (3-5, 4.18 ERA) started the season strong, but has a 6.52 ERA in his past four starts. With the Rays 12-2 after allowing four runs or less in five straight games, and K.C. 0-10 after a loss by six runs or more, the Rays roll. 

Atlanta is back home after an abysmal 1-5 road trip that saw them score a total of 13 runs. Though Ronald Acuna Jr. was not having a typical year for him, he’s the Braves' table-setter and the offense is not as complete without him. Atlanta is 24-14 at home and will look to get after St. Louis' Matthew Liberatore (3-5, 5.56 ERA), who has an ERA over 6.0 the past two months and 7.71 ERA the last 30 days. Nobody permits fewer runs at home than Atlanta, with Martin Perez (6-4, 3.00 ERA) doing his part at 1.64 ERA. That figure is nearly identical to Perez’s ERA vs the Cardinals in three lifetime home starts (1.65). Atlanta at home is 5-0 after a day off, 8-1 after eight or more away games, and 11-3 vs. winning foes.

Arizona should have a distinct edge in starting pitching with Eduardo Rodriguez (6-2, 2.27 ERA) facing the Giants Mahle (1-7, 5.49 ERA). The D-Backs should be fired up after being swept at Tampa Bay, while San Fran is feeling spry after winning two home series, yet are just 16-26 away from home. Take note, the Giants are 1-8 after allowing four runs or less in three straight games, with Arizona 18-1 playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%).

Chicago’s Anthony Kay (6-2, 4.24 ERA) has been a little shaky of late with a couple of mediocre outings, but not at home, where he and his teammates are 7-0, with a glittering 2.66 ERA. The Royals' Luinder Avila (3-3, 5.06 ERA) has been a road warrior with a brilliant 1.80 ERA in four starts. Maybe he can keep it going since he’s only allowed 18 hits in 30 innings. Yet, he’s also walked 16 hitters in that narrow window and the White Sox are the #5 strongest team at home, where they are 28-13. Conversely, K.C. is 15-28 on the road and has scored only seven times in dropping four in a row, and they are 5-17 vs LH starters. With Kansas City 0-7 in road games after batting .200 or worse over a three-game span, the Pale Hose at -1 RL is the play.

Milwaukee is 4-0 against the Cubs this season and is 12-5 as hosts against their rivals just over the southern state border. Saturday’s showdown is two lefties, Kyle Harrison (8-1, 2.50 ERA) for the Brewers vs. newly acquired David Peterson (3-6, 6.09 ERA), who has struggled for a calendar year. Going to ride the hot system that reads this way: Home teams like the Brew Crew with a hot starting pitcher - ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games, against an opponent with a cold starting pitcher whose WHIP is 2.00 or higher over his last three starts, are 40-6, winning by 2.4 RPG. I’ll take the safe route just in case at Milwaukee -1 RL. 

Framber Valdez will face his former team for the second time when Detroit faces Houston on Saturday afternoon. Valdez (4-5, 3.91 ERA) spent the first eight seasons of his career with the Astros. The left-hander signed a three-year, $115 million contract with the Tigers as a free agent in February. Valdez delivered one of his best outings of the season against host Houston on June 16, limiting his former teammates to one unearned run and six hits in six innings. Expect more of the same as Framber has a 2.65 ERA in day games. Houston’s Kai-Wei Teng (4-6, 4.30 ERA) has been scuffling with a 6.94 ERA in his past five starts With Teng 0-6 on the RL on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 and his team 0-6 on the RL after being shutout, that is not a bad wager, but I’ll take the safe route just in case, having Detroit to only win.

In this interleague encounter, both teams arrive in St. Petersburg on two-game win streaks; thus, something has to give. It would appear Arizona is in the tougher spot because Zac Gallen (3-6, 6.10 ERA), as bad as he’s pitched, is even worse on the road with a 7.68 ERA. The Rays will send right-hander Nick Martinez (6-2, 2.73 ERA), who has revitalized his career in West Florida by adding a new pitch. Even though Tampa Bay only split their series with K.C., they are still 28-12 at home. With the Rays 11-1 after five or more consecutive home games, they take down the D-Backs. 

The Yankees had a tough time in Detroit but still won the series in three close games, taking their away record to 26-16. Boston had a three-run lead yesterday against Colorado, but two errors caused five unearned runs, giving the Reds Sox an 8-6 defeat and a series loss. Boston returns to Fenway Park, where they are an unbelievable 12-25. Cam Schlittler (8-3, 1.71 ERA) is New York’s probable starter, and he has a 1.32 ERA in two career regular-season starts against Boston, both Yankees victories. Left-hander Connelly Early (6-5, 3.64 ERA) is expected to start for the Red Sox (Yankees 19-9 vs LH starters), but like his teammates, he’s struggled at home with a 2-4 mark and 4.85 ERA. With Schlitter and friends 8-0 in road starts vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or fewer runs a game, the Yanks are the play. 

Atlanta has lost three straight and nine of 12. However, today they appear to have an edge in avoiding a sweep in San Diego. The Braves will start left-hander Martin Perez (6-3, 2.78 ERA), who’s been effective, though not as much on the road (3.86 ERA). The Padres have called up former Athletics starter JP Sears, who struggled at Triple-A El Paso in 14 starts this year, with a 7.92 ERA. Atlanta is 22-12 vs. LH starters and #3 in homers against lefties. The Friars scored seven times last night, but that’s a rarity for the worst offense in baseball. Though the Bravos bullpen took the loss last night, they are still the best in the majors. Perez is 20-12 on the road when the money line is -100 to -150 (team’s record) and 12-3 in away June assignments (team’s record).

Kyle Freeland (1-7, 7.36 ERA) is a disaster and will take the mound for Colorado against Ranger Suarez (3-3, 2.93 ERA) in a battle of lefties. Suarez is 26-7 in road starts in the first half of the season with the drill down from this point 6-0 after giving up no earned runs last outing. The best way to bet Boston is on -1 RL. 

These are two bad teams that have issues. At least Boston has a pitching edge, particularly with Sonny Gray (8-1, 3.12 ERA) tonight. Left-hander Sean Sullivan (0-1, 10.29 ERA) will make his home debut. The Red Sox are #29 in scoring, but #14 vs LH hurlers. If Gray has his typical game, the Boston bullpen is solid, and this club is 5-0 in road games, having lost six or seven of their last eight games.

The Dodgers' offense is in a mini-slump with five runs in its past three outings, lacking in clutch hits with 21 runners left on base. Twins left-hander Kendry Rojas (1-0, 1.26 ERA) will make his second career start. The rookie has 14 strikeouts in 14 1/3 innings in five total appearances, yet he also has 10 walks, walking the tightrope. Even if L.A. doesn’t blast Rojas, the Minnesota bullpen is still last in runs allowed per inning, providing them more opportunities. Dodgers LH Justin Wrobleski (8-2, 2.72 ERA) has been incredibly reliable. Know this: AL home teams hitting .265 or lower, against a good NL starting pitcher (ERA of 3.70 or lower), with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 in the last 10 games, are 11-44. The best way to bet is L.A. -1 RL. 

The Rays Drew Rasmussen (6-3, 2.59 ERA) should be in the AL Cy Young conversation with his season to date. He sports a 2-1 record with a miniscule 0.43 ERA over his last three starts. Keeping the Rays in check will be the responsibility of Royals right-hander Michael Wacha (4-5, 3.64), who will look to snap a seven-game winless skid (K.C. record). Rasmussen is 4-1 with a 2.38 ERA in six career appearances (four starts) versus the Royals, with Wacha having a 4.93 ERA in nine starts against the Rays. The edge also goes to Tampa Bay with their 26-10 home record compared to K.C. at 13-24 away. What seals the deal is that the Rays are 9-0 at home after three or more consecutive Unders. TB on the -1 RL. 

In this AL encounter, I prefer Gerrit Cole (2-1, 2.57 ERA) to Framber Valdez (3-5, 4.09 ERA), who has been inconsistent in his first season in Detroit. History also finds Cole 10-2 (team’s record) against the Tigers with a 1.84 ERA, which includes 6-1 in the Motor City. Valdez is 2-5 (team’s record) with a bloated 5.80 ERA versus the Yankees. New York is 17-4 in road games vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or fewer runs a game, with Cole 8-0 in road starts vs. an AL team with an on-base percentage of .320 or worse.

Going with a system play here: Bet on NL favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 – averaging 4.0 to 4.5 runs/game, against an ordinary AL starter (ERA= 4.30 to 5.70), with a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's a start. Teams like Arizona are 35-5 in this exact situation. Going with the Snakes at -1. 

I like the Snakes Rodriguez against the Angels, who are 8-12 vs LH starters. Plus, the Halos are 0-6 after two straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs, and 2-14 after a win by four runs or more, losing by multiple runs in each instance. The -1 RL is the best way to bet  Arizona.

The Nats Littell is far from perfect, but he’s far better than what the Royals have to offer pitching-wise and Washington has the superior offense. 

Washington has won three straight series, while Kansas City has lost four of five. The Royals are a miserable 3-15 vs. LH starters and face a Nationals crew who just scored 10 and 8 runs in wins over Seattle. Tonight, we are looking to Bet Against All underdogs with a money line of +115 to +165, after after allowing two runs or less, against opponent after scoring seven runs or more in two straight games. (10-47) Back the Nats!

And just like that, we have the Tigers team we have been looking for all year. Detroit is on a 6-1 run after a dreadful 4-21 down the toilet flush. The Tigers go for their third straight series win this evening with Framber Valdez (3-4, 4.21 ERA), who’s been up and down in his last half dozen outings. Framber faces a Minnesota squad that is 12-20 on the road, starting a rookie pitcher backed by the #29 bullpen. Framber is 13-3 at home in June (his best month). Plus, 30-16 playing against a team with a losing record. (Team’s record) Tigers -1 RL.

The Rays have taken the first two games of the series and go for the sweep. In this one I like Drew Rasmussen (5-2, 3.00 ERA) over Boston rookie Jake Bennett (1-1, 4.35). With the Red Sox #29 in runs scored and the Rays 9-0 in home games after allowing three runs or less two straight games, the BoSox are swept. 

Philadelphia arrives in Canada on a 28-12 run, winners of six of seven. After taking the series opener, the Phillies will turn to fellow Zack Wheeler (5-1, 2.31 ERA), who has been a big part of the team’s turnaround. Toronto got to .500, but is 3-6 since, with pitching, the problem. The Blue Jays have allowed at least four runs in eight of nine tries and have given up 5.5 RPG in this stretch. Dylan Cease (3-3, 3.05 ERA) comes off the IL but has a 6.75 ERA in two starts vs the Phils. Philly is 8-3 of late when facing Toronto, including 4-2 north of the border, and is 10-1 in road games on the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%).