For the first time, someone has won two in a row in the SC Finals, which is Carolina. The Hurricanes Rod Brind'Amour had the courage to make a goalie change and Brandon Bussi has stepped up. Arguably, Vegas should have done the same thing in Game 5 but elected to go with a worn out Carter Hart, who has played every game in the postseason and has allowed at least four goals in each contest in the finals. With the loss of William Karlsson, that alters the Golden Knights line structure and takes away their main edge, three strong centers. In addition, the Carolina power play has gotten hot at 6 for 14 in the series and they are 7-1 on the playoff road, they are my choice. The clincher, the Hurricanes are 8-0 when leading a playoff series this year.

What a bizarrely entertaining series thus far for the Stanley Cup. One team goes ahead, the game appears over, and nope, the contest has just started. Both offenses are abusing the defenses, as it looks like both clubs have an extra skater in the offensive zone almost all the time. The goalies have played well at times, but also been sieve-like. A change in net is expected for Carolina, though hardly for sure, but feeling you have to play a rookie on the road when down in the Stanley Cup Finals is hardly comforting for Carolina. Two things to know: SC Finals team off an OT win are 2-12 in the next game, and Game 4 road favorites down 2-1 in the series are 22-9. 

Vegas winning Game 1 was not a complete shocker, but winning when down 0-2 on the road, that was. Carolina, just like in the Game 1 loss at home to Montreal, was loose below the dots, and Vegas exploited it. I expect the Hurricanes to tighten things up on defense and netminder Anderson to play sharper. Carolina has not lost two in a row since Jan. 12/13 or two at home since Jan. 1/3. The Hurricanes are 12-1 after a home loss. 

After Montreal lost again in OT to Carolina, my thought was the Canadiens seemed like the right play at home after a pair of closely contested affairs, at least on the scoreboard. Then I looked further into the numbers and saw Montreal has 25 total shots in seven-plus periods of hockey in the last two losses. They are being dominated in 5-on-5 play and have spent less than a third of the time in their offensive zone. That suggests playing the dump and chase game into the offensive end for Montreal, but Carolina can play suffocating defense. The Canadiens might be wearing down, having won two seven-game series and facing a defensive-minded opponent who can take you out of what you like to do. The Hurricanes are 10-1 in the postseason, and might be over their - Conference Finals Blues – with back-to-back wins. With Carolina 14-2 against good teams, outscoring their opponents by 0.3+ goals a game in the 2nd half of the season, they take a 3-1 series lead.

Right now, it appears the streak will reach 13 years, since the last time a President’s Trophy champion won the Stanley Cup with Colorado down 0-2. However, I don’t see the Avalanche getting swept either, and if they are going to find a victory, it would seem this is the spot. The Avs are 9-0 in away games revenging a loss as a home favorite.

Colorado looked stale against Vegas, not picking up the pace to avoid the Golden Knights forechecking game. When desperate, the Avalanche turned up the pressure and scored two late goals. The Avs were not sharp on defense, doing too much puck-watching instead of their usual positioning to be in the right place. I look for that to change in Game 2, when we see the Colorado squad we have seen all year taking the speed and shot selection to the next level. The Avs are 10-0 playing with double revenge. Bet the home team to win in regulation time. 

Buffalo has lost three of four to Montreal and needs a win to force a Game 7 back home. Not sure that will happen because suddenly, both Sabres goaltenders are giving up goals in bunches, 19 in the past four matchups. Unless that can fix this immediately, Buffalo is in a tough spot. After having the #4 penalty-killing outfit in the NHL and permitting only three goals in their first eight contests (13%), the Sabres have surrendered five in the past three games. Buffalo has been very good on the road at 19-7 since the midpoint of the season, but with the total at Ov6, the Canadiens are a solid 24-14 when the total 6 or higher at home.

I really like the pluckiness of this younger Anaheim squad. They don’t give up, they keep fighting, and have found ways to win in the postseason, when it seems they shouldn’t. However, Vegas has better individual talent, who has experience in these situations. Though not a big hockey analytics fan, nobody still in the postseason has more – high danger – goals than VGK. What that means is when they are swarming the net, the Knights are scoring. Ducks goalie Lukas Dostal has played a little worse in the playoffs than in the regular season and has issues with the VGK. Conversely, Knights' netminder Carter Hart has 9.1,2% save percentage in the playoffs and bailed his teammates out numerous times. Just like the last series, it was tied, Vegas won in OT in Game 5, and won on the road. With VGK 7-0 away after a home win by one goal, they win and advance. 

Minnesota had its chance to even the series, couldn’t make it happen. Colorado has too much offensive talent, and unless the Avs goalie has a terrible game, I don’t see the Wild coming away with a win. This is a big number, that’s why it's one unit, but in terms of my perception, this is a 3/4 unit play based on confidence. I’m not looking to mess around with PL or 3-way line, just after a win. Colorado is 15-5 as a home favorite of -200 to -300, including on a 5-0 streak.

It was an impressive win by Anaheim in Game 4 as they got the power play cranked up, scoring twice in four tries after an 0-11 series start. But Vegas never quit and scored two late goals to make it 4-3, creating a little momentum for themselves in what is now a best-of-three. The Golden Knights are still a veteran squad, and that can matter as the stakes get higher. Granted, Edmonton had far more playoff experience than the Ducks in the previous series, but the VGK defensive structure is superior to the Oilers. Keep in mind the Knights are 8-0 with revenge after allowing four or more goals. 

Minnesota played a spirited game Saturday and whipped Colorado 5-1. The Avalanche was loose on the defensive end, and goalie Scott Wedgewood did not have it, ending Colorado’s nine-game win streak. Even with the setback, Colorado is still on an 11-2 run and expect them to be more focused on both ends of the rink for Game 4. The Avs are 7-0 in away games revenging a loss where the opponent scored four or more goals and 13-1 away, avenging a loss as a favorite.

So far in the postseason, Buffalo is 3-0 on the road, and Montreal is 1-2 on home ice. Both clubs have played better on the visiting ice and fully expect the Sabres to take one of the next two contests on the road. If I miss this one, unless something weird happens, I would expect to take Buffalo in Game 4 if they falter. I also like that the Sabres are 14-3 in away games against teams allowing 3+ goals/game in the 2nd half of the season.

Carolina wraps up the series if they want to. The Hurricanes are the superior team, and other than for five minutes at the beginning of Game 2, they have largely carried the play to the Flyers. What we don’t know is if Carolina brings their brooms today or would just as soon as win the series at home in Game 5. That’s why I’m going with a smaller unit play just in case and paying a higher price to avoid a possible OT situation on a three-way line, as I usually do. 

Buffalo is a popular pick for Game 2 of this series after their impressive 4-2 win in the opener. However, I think the Canadians will win at least one of the next two games. The Sabres have the faster team, and goalie Alex Lyon is playing amazingly with a 95% save percentage in five playoff contests. However, Buffalo is 2-2 playing at home in the playoffs, and they should be 1-3. Montreal won three times at Tampa Bay in their first-round matchup and on the season is 27-19 SU in away games. I think the Habs have a real shot, posting a 14-4 record off a road setback. 

Anaheim had its chances in the series opener, but couldn’t find the back of the net more than once despite a +12 shot edge. I said I thought the Ducks could win one of two games in Vegas to start the series, and nothing in Game has changed my mind. Knights' goalie Carter Hart is playing above career norms, which can happen to any goalie in the postseason. But the Ducks' offense is above average, and I think they can break through since they are 9-1 after playing a game when four or fewer total goals were scored.

Both teams admitted that it was not the kind of game they wanted to play, where 15 goals were scored.  For Game 2, I wouldn’t be surprised to see six or seven goals scored because both teams have strong 5-on-5 offenses that place a lot of pressure on opposing defenses. Where I think Colorado will have an edge is that the Wild’s penalty killing is a mess, as they have allowed 11 goals on 27 chances (40.7%), which gives the high-pressure Avs a chance to score beyond regular methods. Colorado is 7-3 at home vs. the Wild, 5-1 on home ice after scoring six or more times, and 13-2 in Denver on a three-game win streak. The Avs win in regulation time bet.  

Anaheim won once on the road at Edmonton, which set up their series upset. The Ducks have won three straight over Vegas, which included a road triumph. I think Anaheim can win one of the first two in Sin City and will make a small play in the opener. Vegas scuffled with better teams at home at 4-11 SU when playing against a team with a winning record.

Carolina’s defense is suffocating, having allowed five goals in the postseason and 1.75 GAG in their last 10 contests. The Hurricanes are on a 12-2 run. Flyers coaches admit their team looked a little flat after beating Pittsburgh and expect a better showing in Game 2. That makes sense, but it doesn’t mean they will win as the Hurricanes are 8-2 in this matchup at home and 15-1 on home ice playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. Carolina wins in regulation time. 

Carolina took three of four this season in the head-to-head battles, but oddly, all four games went to OT. The Hurricanes won both at home and are 7-2 on home ice against the Flyers. Can these two play five straight OT games? I’ll say NO, with Carolina 14-1 playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. Plus, even if Philly wins, we have a lower price tag by taking the Hirricaes on the 60-minute line at -130.  

I understand the whole Tampa Bay is experienced talk, and they’ve won 7 of 11 at Montreal. However, what I can’t overlook is the talking point that Andrei Vasilevskiy is better in goal than Montreal’s Jakub Dobes. Career, yes, but series? Dobes has the better record and higher save percentage (90.3% vs 88%) and has won twice in Florida. I’m a big fan of what the Lightning has accomplished over the years, but they have lost in the first round three consecutive years. Granted, the last two were against eventual Cup champion Florida, but two years ago, they had the home-ice edge and still failed to win. Lastly, the Lightning are 14-15 over the past two months and 6-7 the past month. Compare that to Montreal, which is 18-10 long term and 8-5 more recently. The clincher, the Habs are 8-3 as home underdogs.  

I was thinking of passing on this game. I like Minnesota because they have outscored Dallas 14-4 in the series when the teams are at even strength. How the Stars have hung in is a 9-4 edge in power play goals. That makes it obvious the Wild is to avoid penalties to win. But here is why I decided to make this play: Game 6 home favorites are on an 11-2 run.  

Though Philadelphia wanted to sweep Pittsburgh at home, the Penguins were more desperate and won, helped by a goalie change. It was no shocker that Pittsburgh won Game 5 at home. But now the pressure is on both teams; the Flyers winning a Game 7 in western Pennsylvania seems very unlikely, so in terms of desperation, this has to be Philly’s spot. In the last two contests, the Pens have taken the player to the Flyers, with the opposite happening in the first three matchups. Look for the home team to be the aggressor and jump on Pitt, who is 1-11 off a home win against a division rival.

The Oilers' defense has been deplorable, allowing 17 goals in nine-plus periods while losing three in a row. There is no question, this was not a great part of their team in reaching the Stanley Cup Finals the last two years, but this group is weaker. However, for all the pluckiness and resolve Anaheim has shown, winning a playoff series is hard, especially lacking that experience. Getting to the brink is one thing, putting it away is another, particularly on the road. With the Oilers 13-2 at home off two consecutive setbacks, they are the choice. 

It’s hard to imagine the Kings' crowd will be all that fired up with their team down 0-3, and this is an early afternoon affair local time. It’s not like L.A. is a hockey town. Look for Colorado to take the same approach as Carolina yesterday, stay defensive-minded (4 goals allowed) and shut down L.A.’s power play (0-9) while executing with superior offensive ability. With the Kings 1-8 at home revenging a loss of two goals or more, the Avs get the sweep. 

This looked like a seven-game series, and nothing has changed my mind. Minnesota has gotten a little loose in the defensive end, permitting four goals in the last two games. Look for them to tighten that up in this contest at home. The extra day of rest will also benefit the Wild, as they are 8-3 at home this season when playing only their second game in five days.

Ottawa played Carolina tough, losing two close games on the road. The Senators know the series is over with a loss, and they closed the home regular season 8-2, which included a win over Carolina. 

These teams have played 120 minutes of playoff hockey, and Boston has controlled the action for 105 of them, on the road. At home, the Bruins are 10-2, having won three of their last four games and 15-2 against teams allowing 2.85+ GAG. The B’s goalie J. Swayman is a different player at home (2.18 GAA vs. 3.26 away). And, Buffalo is 3-16 in away games after playing two consecutive at home.

Pittsburgh has looked uninspired in losing two home games to rival Philadelphia, scoring two goals. The most surprising aspect of this is that the Penguins were the top-scoring club in the NHL over the last 20 games of the regular season. The Pens appear certain to lose the series to a younger and tougher Flyers crew. Being swept would be a complete embarrassment for Pittsburgh. With some lineup changes and complete desperation, look for the Penguins to give a strong effort. Then there is this: Road teams like Pitt when the money line is -100 to -150, playing with triple revenge, off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, are 31-6. 

Utah took a 2-1 lead into the third period in Game 1 and couldn’t make it hold up. Even with that victory, Vegas is no prize at home with a 21-21 record on the season. The Mammoth have the same matching record on the road, and it seems they can certainly compete which the oddsmaker line supports. With VGK 3-10 at home playing against a team with a winning record and 1-7 in their building playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%), Utah evens the series. 

Dallas was terrible in all facets in Game 1 against Minnesota and was hammered. They deserved it. But this isn’t news for the Stars, who have lost seven Game 1s at home in the playoffs over the years and came right back to take six of seven Game 2s. And the Wild have hardly celebrated prosperity, losing five straight Game 2s after their road win in the series opener. I’ll close with this: Home teams like Dallas, off a blowout loss by three goals or more to a division rival, a good team (60% to 70%), playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) in the 2nd half of the season, are 26-4. 

Normally, this would be a spot I’d strongly consider Ottawa after a close, hard-fought Game 1. But I cannot ignore that the Hurricanes are 23-2 at home in the first round. 

How dominant was Colorado this season, #1 in scoring and fewest goals allowed. What that means to me, if the Avalanche come to play, they win the series in four and win both home games by multiple goals. Colorado's last seven wins over L.A. have been by two or more goals, and the Kings are 1-11 against good possession teams averaging 3+ more shots on goal than foes, most importantly, losing by 2.0 GAG.

On March 10, the Flyers began their surge, going 13-4-1 to tie Pittsburgh for the second-most points in the Metro (losing tiebreaker). Philly is young and riding that momentum and finished #9 in goals allowed. Pittsburgh's more veteran squad blended in youngsters and is just as big a surprise as their in-state rival, to keep playing hockey. The Penguins' #3 offense has carried them. Ranked #24 on defense, with substandard goalies, could be an anchor as the series plays out. I expect the Flyers to take one of the two contests in Pittsburgh and will take a shot with in the opener with them 10-3 away against weaker starting goalies, saving 89.5% or fewer of shots against.

Both clubs labored to the finish line. This feels like a seven-game series, and Dallas as a -120 favorite supports that thinking. Minnesota, the last month is 8-6 SU, with Dallas slightly worse at 8-7 SU. The Stars have won 8 of 12 on home ice in this matchup. Both teams were above average in scoring, with Dallas #11 and their opponent #13. And the Stars are modestly better on defense at #2 vs the Wild at #4. This line feels too low, and, the Stars are 8-0 in home games after two straight wins by one goal.

Vegas needs a win or OT loss to win the Pacific Division. If they lose, Edmonton can pass them for the top spot tomorrow. Having won six of seven to reach this position, the Golden Knights should have ample purpose. Seattle could be interested because it’s a division game, and they mess up Vegas. But VGK goalie Carter Hart has been dialed in on a 4-0 win streak with a 93.9% SP. Hart’s SP is just 88.8% for the season, but the Kraken are 1-11 away against goalies saving 89.5% or fewer of shots against, losing by 2.0 GAG. 

Utah is one of the Wild Card teams in the West and is one point ahead of Los Angeles with two games to play. The Mammoth wants to stay ahead of the Kings because that would mean facing Vegas at this time, compared to Colorado, a distinct advantage.  Utah faces Winnipeg tonight, whom they are 3-0 against at home. And the Jets seem in a bad spot, as underdogs of +100 to +160 vs. division opponents, playing their second road game in two days, are a miserable 7-39. 

Normally, one could worry about a road favorite leading its division late in the season against an opponent who is last in its division. They might not be focused or resting players. That is not Buffalo, which is tied for the lead in the Atlantic and takes the division by winning its last two games. If the Sabres were to lose, they would place themselves in possibly all sorts of trouble they would not want going into the playoffs. With the Sabres 8-0 against poor teams outscored by their opponents by 0.3+ goals a game in the 2nd half of the season, and 7-0 off a huge win by five goals or more, they wrap up this matchup in regulation. 

These are the two worst defensive teams in the NHL. But Vancouver is not only last on defense, but last in scoring, while San Jose is at least average. I’m going with the 60 min. line to have better value and it doesn’t hurt that the Canucks have not played in OT in 13 straight games (winning twice), while the Sharks played extra hockey once in 16 contests. San Jose is 9-3, having lost three of their last four games, with Vancouver 1-12 off a road loss by three goals or more.

Pittsburgh has won four of five, trying to hold on to the #2 spot in the Metro and have a home-ice edge over likely Philadelphia in the first round of the playoffs. New Jersey's playoff hopes ended a while ago, but they have not quit; they have just been incredibly inconsistent. Both teams have recently scored and allowed a lot of goals. One possible big difference in this contest is the power plays: the Penguins have four scores in the past three games, while the Devils have none. Add in New Jersey is 0-8 in home games off an upset loss by two goals or more as a home favorite, making the Pens the play. 

Florida will not be after a third straight Stanley Cup, sitting in last place in the Metro Division and playing out the string. Montreal has won seven of eight and is on a 12-4 SU and is within two points of tying for the Atlantic Division lead. Habs goalie Jakub Dobes is 15-4 at home and has won his last five starts with a save percentage over 93%. The Canadiens are 9-1 playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season, and win this in three periods. 

Carolina is attempting to have the best record in the East, while the Islanders are trying to avoid falling into the Wild Card portion of the same conference. New York has lost three in a row and is just one point ahead of four other teams breathing down their necks. The Iles defense has vanished in the trio of losses, permitting 16 goals. They face the Hurricanes, who are 28-2 in the Metro at home. The last six times these teams have played in Raleigh, the Canes have won each game by two or more goals. Lastly, looking at the expected goalies, Carolina’s B. Bussi is 17-2 on home ice, with the Islanders D. Rittich 3-7 in the visiting sweaters. The Hurricanes on the PL. 

A very important game for both teams tonight. Buffalo has been caught at Tampa Bay atop the Atlantic Division. Having played one more game, the edge for the moment goes to the Lightning. And with Montreal only four points behind and winners of five in a row, the Sabres need a victory. The Islanders are in third place in the Metro, but two points from second place and two points from being passed and falling to fourth. Buffalo is 6-1 at home against the Isles. New York’s expected goalie David Rittich is 3-8 on the road, while the Sabres netminder Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is 10-3 at home. The price is higher than I prefer, but with Buffalo having played a trio of OT games in four tries, I’ll just take them to win the game. 

San Jose still has a pulse to make the playoffs, but having lost six in a row is not helping its chances. Columbus has moved into a tie for 3rd in the Metro and is only two points from passing Pittsburgh for 2nd place in winning five of seven. The Blue Jackets lost at San Jose back in January and are 10-0 in home games revenging a loss as a road favorite.

Carolina has owned the Devils at home at 14-1. The Hurricanes are 26-2 in home division games and most recently 8-0 against anyone with a winning record on home ice. I’ll say the lock this one up in regulation time as expected goalie B. Bussi 16-2 at home and the New Jersey netminder J. Markstrom 2-8 in division contests. 

These teams have met nine times in Seattle’s history. The Kraken is 1-8 SU, and seven of those losses were by multiple goals. Tampa Bay is only 8-8 SU in its last 16 contests, but each victory has been by two or more goals. Seattle has only been 2-8 recently, and if you look back at their past 15 setbacks, they've only lost by one goal twice; all the others were by more.  The clincher: the Kraken is 0-10 against teams outscoring opponents by 0.65+ goals/game in the second half of the season, most importantly, losing by 2.5 GAG. 

The Islanders are in must-win mode because in the Metropolitan Division, they are two points from taking over second place or three points away from missing the playoffs altogether. Chicago, though improved, is just 5-14 SU in its last 19 outings. The Isles' offense has gone soft in splitting their last six games, yet they are 16-5, having lost two of three, and 5-0 at home off an upset win as home underdogs.

Boston’s been virtually unbeatable at home, on an amazing 14-1 run. Toronto’s injuries and ineptness have them in a 2-12 death spiral. Add this to the Bruins are 14-2 on home ice after scoring four goals or more in their previous game, and you have a B’s winner.

Ottawa is on a 13-5 SU run and is back in contention for a Wild Card spot, but cannot let up. The Rangers are dead in the water, losers of four in a row, including yesterday in OT, and are a hard-to-comprehend 9-27 SU at MSG. Linus Ullmark is expected to be the Senators' goalie, and he’s 14-8 on the road. Igor Shesterkin is 7-13 at home between the pipes. Sometimes the back-to-back games is overstated, but not in the Rangers' case at 1-10 this season.  

Ottawa has won 12 of 17 games and picked up points in 14 of them to climb within five points of the last Wild Card slot in the East. With 14 games left, the Senators have little margin for error and have to keep picking up wins. Toronto is going nowhere, tied for the worst record in the Atlantic, having been hit hard by injuries. At first, I was not completely comfortable with a PL play, but then I found Ottawa had covered the spread in 5 of 6 of its recent victories, along with 11 of 13. Conversely, in the Leafs' last 15 losses, 11 have been by multiple goals.

Not going to overthink this, follow the info.

Tampa Bay is 11-0 in away games against poor starting goalies - saving 89.5% or fewer of shots against.

Vancouver 0-7 in home games off an upset win as a home underdog.

Vancouver 0-8 in home games off a win in their previous game. All three angles have a goal differential over 2.0.

Expected goalies:  A. Vasilevskiy 14-7 on the road for Lightning

K. Lankinen 3-15 at home for Canucks. 

Detroit has lost three straight, primarily because the offense is floundering, averaging 2.1 GAG over its last 11 outings, which has led to five of six losses. The Red Wings are a Wild Card team at the moment, but they could move up if they start winning, or miss the playoffs again if they keep faltering. Calgary ranks seventh in the Pacific Division and has the worst offense in the NHL. Detroit is back home after a 1-3 road trip, and needs to take advantage of a very winnable contest. The Red Wings are 9-1 at home, having lost four of their last five games.

Dallas has won 13 of 14, while Detroit has lost five of seven, including the last two on the road. A possibly large factor in the outcome is that the Stars have the #2 power play in the NHL, which has scored 13 goals in 11 consecutive games. The Red Wings have given up extra attacker goals in seven of nine outings. Know this; Dallas is 8-0 at home against teams allowing 3.0 or more GAG in the second half of the season and 11-0 after playing a game where nine or more total goals were scored. The Stars in regulation. 

The Sabres are on an 8-0 roll, and they face a slumping Washington squad that is 1-4, having allowed 19 goals in this downturn. Buffalo’s offense is in another gear, having averaged better than 5 GAG in its last six starts. The Sabres are on an 8-0 spurt against losing teams and 18-4 at home after scoring three goals or more in four straight games. They get it done in three periods. 

Boston has won 13 in a row on home ice, and they face San Jose, which has lost three straight and 8 of 11. Expected Bruins goalie Jeremy Swayman is 16-5 in Bean Town with 91.9% SP, and in his last four starts, that SP is 94.4%! The Sharks are 2-7 against the B’s recently, including 0-4 at TD Garden. 

San Jose split a half-dozen games homestand, and next has a five-contest road trip starting in the East. The Sharks have lost four in a row on the road and face a white-hot Buffalo squad that is on a 7-0 run. The Sabres just won that wild game against Tampa Bay 8-7 and are 10-1 after a one-goal triumph. Combine that with Buffalo goalie Alex Lyon, who is 3-0 with a .928 SP since the break, while the Sharks netminder Yaroslav Askarov has a 3.58 road GAA. The clincher, the Sabers are 11-1 after scoring six or more goals.

Dallas had their 10-game win streak snapped by Colorado, but it was in a SO, thus I don’t see any hangover. The Stars should take Chicago seriously, having lost the last two times to them. The spread is huge in this game, and the last 13 times the Blackhawks have lost 10, it has been by multiple goals. It’s of note that both teams come in off games in which nine or more goals were scored, and Dallas is 10-0, with Chicago 0-9, and the goal differential in each case is 2.0. 

Carolina is 4-1 since the break and on a 7-1 roll altogether. They will face Calgary, which has lost four in a row, scoring just four times in this stretch. This leads to the Flames being 0-9 after scoring two goals or less in four straight games. Next, toss in Hurricanes goalie Brandon Bussi, who is 9-3 on the road with a 91.4% SP and Carolina wins in regulation time.

Montreal is 2-3 of late and has the same record on the road recently. Anaheim has not been on the road since January and is 6-1 on the current homestand, with the loss to Colorado, hardly a poor setback. The Ducks are 21-10 SU at home, won three of four against the Canadiens, and fit a strong system that is working well this season. Home teams like the Ducks, off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning percentage of between 45-55%, in the second half of the season, are 14-3. 

After playing sloppy defense coming out of the break, Seattle has tightened everything up at home. The Kraken permitted nine goals in a pair of road games, but just two scores in its past two outings on home ice. Tonight is Game 3 of a six-game homestand, and Seattle is on a five-contest home win streak, allowing only seven goals. St. Louis has won two of three, with one a 5-1 home slamming of Seattle six days ago. With Blues 1-15 having taken two of three and 8-20 SU on the road, the Kraken crush St. Louis. 

Vegas is on a five-game road trip. The first stop was in nearby L.A., and they won, but since heading into the Eastern Time Zone, they are 0-2. Next up for the VGK is a stop in Buffalo, which has won 10 of 13. However, the Sabres have been road warriors with nine of their victories in the away sweaters. The in-between stops at home have produced a 1-2 mark. Buffalo will be home in six of their next seven contests, sitting four points behind Tampa Bay for the Atlantic top spot. The Sabres should have a decided edge in goal with Alex Lyon (91.4% home SP) facing Aiden Hill (82.1% road SP). With Buffalo 10-0 after playing three consecutive road games, they keep rolling. 

Dallas has won eight in a row, and Vancouver has lost five consecutive times. Eventually, both streaks will end, but I don’t think it's tonight. Let’s start with the expected goalies, where the Stars Jake Oettinger is 11-6 on the road, and the Canucks Kevin Lankinen is 2-13 at home. Oettinger has won his last seven starts, with Lankinen on a 0-6 downward trend when he’s started. The clincher, Vancouver is 0-9 at home after playing a road game. Take Dallas on a 60-minute line.

With Saturday’s loss in Colorado, Chicago has dumped 8 of 9, and only once in those defeats did they reach three goals. The lack of offense has the Blackhawks dropping their past five outings by multiple goals and six of seven. Note, ML underdogs of +200 or higher, like Chicago, averaging 3+ fewer shots on goal/game than foe, with five straight games with 26 or fewer shots on goal are a mere 9-81 and most importantly losing by 2.0 GAG.

Nashville has won three of four, but Dallas is on runs of 6-0 and 7-1. The Stars have also won five straight on home ice and are 31-12 at home off a victory and 17-5 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%). With the Predators a lackluster 13-32 away as a road underdog, the Stars shine. 

Colorado has not played as well as they were for most of the season of late. But in Chicago’s last eight losses, six are by multiple goals, including the last four. Plus, the Blackhawks are 8-24 when facing a team scoring 3.0 or more GAG in road games, losing by 2.1 GAG.

New Jersey could have an edge, having played coming out of the long break, but not necessarily. The Devils lost 2-1 last night, extending their losing streak to four and putting them on a 1-6 skid. New Jersey can’t score with three total goals in those defeats. Pittsburgh returns to action on a 7-2 run. The Penguins have accomplished this despite a power play that has scored one time in nine games, yet they are still #4 in this category, so they are overdue for a breakthrough. The Devils are 4-15 away vs. a team with a winning 51 to 60 percent of their games and falter again. 

Even just an all-star break can add uncertainty about any team returning, but this long break adds further trepidation. However, my guess is that these teams can’t wait to get going again with Seattle on a 5-1 move when we last saw them and Dallas at 6-0. I’ll settle on the Stars, who had their way with the Kraken, 16-5, 9-2 at home and winners of five in a row over them. 

Florida ended their four-game losing streak last night, but blew a two-goal lead in the third period at home and escaped in OT. Tampa Bay has played incredibly for some time despite a boatload of injuries and is 14-1 off a home win. Bet 60-minute line for the best value.

After having one of the most dominant starts to a hockey season, Colorado has cooled off considerably at 5-9 SU recently. After being nearly unbeatable at home, the Avalanche has dropped four of five in its rink. San Jose will look to avoid going into the long break on a downer as they wrap up a five-game road trip, having lost three straight. More than anything, the Avs have lost their previous focus, yet, remains #1 in scoring and #1 in goals allowed. With Colorado 13-1 when facing the Sharks and 7-0 at home, I’ll take them on the PL to give their normal effort. 

After losing six in a row, including the first game of the road trip, Toronto has won two straight. Edmonton is just 4-3 on its long homestand and looks to close with a victory. Both defenses are sieve-like at the moment, making the Over possible. However, I like the fact that the Oilers are 10-1 off a loss when playing at night, and I’ll back them on the 60-minute line. 

Winnipeg has played better of late, getting healthier, winning seven of 12. However, the Jets are trending downward in losing five of eight, scoring only a dozen times in seven contests. Dallas went through an extended stretch of bad hockey but returns home after a 3-0 road trip and has won four straight. Winnipeg has struggled against quality power plays at 5-20, and the Stars are #2 in scoring with a man advantage. Plus, the Jets are 5-22 facing teams averaging 3.25 or better GAG like Dallas. With the Stars 8-3 as hosts in this matchup, take them on the 60-minute line for best value. 

Rangers are saddled with injuries in losing 13 of 16. Pittsburgh has won five in a row with a sizzling offense. I’ll personally make a smaller PL bet on the Penguins, but the main wager is taking the Pens on the 60-min line, the Blueshirts having lost 9 of 13 by two goals or more.

Situational Play. Let’s start with this is the Capitals' sixth road game in 11 days across four different time zones. Conversely, this is just Detroit’s second game in five days, both at home. Washington is 1-4 on the road trip and 1-6 overall. While the Red Wings have won 8 of 11 and 8 of 10 at home. 

Tampa Bay remains the hottest team in the NHL at 15-2. Coming off two days off and not playing again until Sunday, the Lightning should be dialed in. Winnipeg had a good start to their road trip with a win at New Jersey; however, the Jets are 6-24 against teams scoring 3+ goals a game and 0-10 against teams permitting 26.5 or fewer shots on goal. Play the home team on a 60-minute line.

Boston has their final taste of home cooking before the Olympics on Thursday when they face Philadelphia for the first time this season. Boston's outstanding recent form -- 9-1-1 in the past 11 games, including an active eight-game home win streak. The Flyers have dropped 9 of 11 and are 3-17 when playing on back-to-back days.

With two feet of snow on the ground and bitter cold in the air outside, Boston looks to keep turning up the heat inside TD Garden as they go for their eighth straight home win against Nashville. Boston is playing the second game of a back-to-back following a 4-3 overtime loss at the New York Rangers on Monday, only the Bruins' second defeat in a 10-game span (8-1-1). The Predators have lost three of four, but are 8-6 SU in their last 14 tries. Nashville has allowed 26 goals in their last half dozen starts, which explains why they are #29 in GAG allowed. That seems like a problem facing the team with the second-best home record (19-9 SU). Have to take the Bs who are not only on a seven-game home win streak but 15-3 at home after playing a game when seven or more total goals were scored.

After scoring twice during a three-game losing streak, Pittsburgh has turned it completely around, tallying 25 goals and posting a 4-1 record. That success is likely to continue for the Penguins as Vancouver has permitted at least three goals in losing 12 of 13 times (4 or more 10 times). Ther Canucks are the worst team in the NHL and are a sickly 5-23 SU at home. With Pittsburgh 7-1 after a win by three or more goals, take the Pens. 

Tampa Bay is the best team in the NHL right now, winners of 13 of 14. Chicago had an impressive win last night at Carolina, but is expected to use backup netminder Arvid Soderblom, who has a miserable 86.8% SP. Besides, how well the Lightning are playing, they are 7-0 against weaker starting goalies, saving 88% or fewer shots against. And most importantly, winning by 3.3 GAG for a PL play on Tampa Bay. 

Pittsburgh has played better of late, winning three of four and lighting the lamp 19 times. Edmonton remains inconsistent, as evidenced by allowing three goals in its past four outings, posting a 2-2 record. However, I like the Oilers here. Former Penguin goalie Tristin Jarry is presumed between the pipes, so you know he’ll be motivated, playing behind a tight defense at this time. Jarry has a 92% SP in his last four starts. Then we have these two factors, starting with this: the Oilers are 8-1 vs. Pittsburgh the last several years, including 4-0 at home. Plus, when the home team is off a loss as a favorite, they are 11-1. Grab Oilers on the 60-minute line. 

The Ducks have won four in a row and appear to be a threat tonight. Anaheim has been able to lean on its defense, permitting just seven goals during the win streak, which is a surprise for a team that is next to last in goals allowed. But Colorado is a beast at home with a 21-1-3 record. The Avs can apply a great deal of offensive pressure with the NHL’s #1 offense. With Colorado 13-2 SU at home against teams allowing over 3.0 GAG, winning by 2.2 GAG, they take of business. 

By winning 12 of 13 and picking up points in each contest, Tampa Bay has tied Detroit atop the Atlantic Division. The Lightning have done this despite missing key players for an extended period of time, which speaks to the brilliance of coach Jon Cooper. San Jose comes in having won 8 of 11 and hammered Florida last night 4-1. However, the Sharks have dropped their last two B2B games, and sweeping the Panhandle series is an adventure for any squad. Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy is 10-5 at home and has played extremely well in his past four starts with a 93.2% SP. Sharks' netminder Yaroslav Askarov is a pretty good 8-9 on the road, but struggled recently with an abysmal 83.7% SP. With the home team 17-1 after a non-conference game, winning by 2.2 GAG on average, back the home team on the PL.

Although Buffalo has won seven of its last 10 games, I like Carolina here. Let’s start between the pipes, where the Sabres Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is 2-5 on the road, compared to the Hurricanes Brandon Bussi, who is 11-1 at home. Speaking of home/road, Carolina has won seven straight over Buffalo in Raleigh. We’ll finish it off knowing Buffalo is 0-9 in away games after a one-goal loss in their previous game. Take Carolina on the 60-minute line. 

Nashville handed Colorado its first home loss in regulation last night, which was their third straight triumph and 10th in 14 contests. That euphoria might be short-lived, having to face Vegas, who’ve won six in a row. I’m taking VGK on the PL as four of the Predators' past five losses have come by multiple goals. The Knights' power play is presently electric with eight goals in six games, which could be a decider. But here is the important one: Nashville is 1-13 SU in away games when playing on back-to-back days, losing by 2.3 GAG.

Inevitably, Colorado was going to have rough spots, and they have lost three of their last five. However, in looking at the losses, Tampa Bay and Toronto are both on fire, with the latter in overtime and at Florida, it's tough for anybody. Nashville hits Denver playing solid hockey, winners of 9 of 13, thanks to improved defense and opportunistic scoring. However, the Avs are the best team in the NHL and have won 9 of 10 at home against the Predators. And it’s impossible to overlook that Colorado is 12-0 playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%), winning by 3.1 GAG.

Both teams have won three of their last five games, so there's nothing to find there. However, two other areas have my interest. Special teams can be a factor in every game. For killing penalties, the Islanders are #10, and the Oilers are #12. However, New York has been slipping in the ratings, allowing six goals in the last six games in this area. Conversely, Edmonton has surrendered one score when down a player in the same time frame. When we turn the page, we find the Oilers are #1 with a man advantage, and they have six goals in their last half dozen contests. The Isles have the worst power play in hockey and have scored no goals in five contests. Take that with Edmonton on a 4-0 run at home over this visitor, let’s take the Oilers in 60 minutes as the play. 

Buffalo enters this contest on a 13-2 SU surge, highlighted by an offense that is clicking, having scored at least three goals in 15 of 16 tries. And, there has not been anything fluky about it as they only have three power play goals in their past 13 contests. The Philadelphia offense has cooled, dropping three in a row, tallying four total goals. The Flyers have lost five of seven in upstate New York, and they are presumed to face goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen between the pipes, who is 7-1 at home with a terrific 92.7% SP. To make one last point, the Sabres are 12-2 at home after scoring three goals or more in four straight games.

Toronto became just the third team to defeat Colorado at home. Like the previous two, they needed OT to accomplish this feat. That was the Maple Leafs' fourth consecutive win and 8th in their last 10. However, this is the Leafs' third game in four days (the last two B2B), something they have not had to deal with in six weeks. Utah is in the midst of a seven-game homestand, starting 2-1. With the way Toronto is playing, they are capable of winning. Nonetheless, last night’s victory could be draining, and underdogs having won eight or more of their last 10 games, playing their third game in four days, are a mere 6-35 ATS. 

New Jersey is coming off a rough week, having lost its first four games, outscored 20-5. The Devils have lost eight of their last 10 games. Though Minnesota is #3 in goals allowed, in losing four of six, they have been loose at that end of the rink in conceding at least four goals in defeat. I look for the Wild to get back on track, with the Devils 1-7 in away games after playing three consecutive road games and 0-9 when playing six or more games in 10 days. Bet this on the 60-minute line. 

The Ducks are on a 0-8 death spiral, playing no defense. Buffalo is on a roll at 12-1. Anaheim’s goalie is 4-8 on the road, and the Sabres are 6-1 on home ice. Next, let’s add in home teams off a road win by three goals or more, against opponents off two consecutive road losses by two goals or more are 49-15. 

Colorado is a wagon (Scott Van Pelt saying) in the NHL. Columbus has lost three in a row, all by two or more goals. I used this the other night with the Avs and will again. Colorado is 14-0 SU as a home favorite of -200 or higher, and most importantly, is winning by 3.4 GAG. The Avs on the PL.

Utah has stabilized in winning seven of its last 12 games. Expected goalie Karel Vejmelka has a sharp 91.7% SP in his previous four starts (3-1) and is 5-2 in division battle. St. Louis is 7-13 SU away from home. Jordan Binnington is a below-average goalie who occasionally has hot streaks. The Blues Binnington is 3-9 in the road sweaters with an ugly 85.3% SP. With the Blues 1-12 having won two of their last three games and 0-6 in away games after allowing two goals or more in the third period of last game, take Utah to win in 60 minutes. 

Colorado is back home, having lost two in a row. However, the Avs had to play at Carolina, Florida, and Tampa Bay in four days, making that a nasty excursion for anyone. Back home, the Avalanche are 17-0-2, facing Ottawa, who has lost five of seven, the last four losses by multiple goals. Additionally, the Senators are 1-7 lately against Colorado, including 0-4 in Denver. Take note, the Avs are 13-0 as a home favorite of -200 or higher, and most importantly, winning by 3.1 GAG. Colorado on PL. 

We have two opposing occurrences happening, which are likely to play a role in the outcome. Montreal is home for the first time since Dec. 20, following a successful 4-3 road trip. Conversely, Calgary hits the road for the first time in better than two weeks (Dec. 23). The Flames are a solid 9-5 SU in their past 14 assignments, but only three of those were in opposing rinks. This year, Calgary is 6-15 SU away from home. With the Habs 5-0 at home after playing four consecutive road games, while the Flames are 0-7 in away games, avenging a home loss, grab Montreal.

Buffalo had their 10-game win streak stopped at Columbus on Saturday. Sometimes there is a letdown after such a streak, but I don’t see that here with Vancouver having lost five of six. The key reason is the Sabres are 6-0 after playing three consecutive road games. The Canucks have been outscored 26-16 in this stretch, and Buffalo bounces back immediately. Play this for regulation time. 

Home teams like Hurricanes, off a loss by 3 goals or more to a division rival, a good team (60% to 70%), playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 25-5. Add in that they are 6-0 at home against Montreal and I’ll make a small wager. 

Colorado is back to dominating, winners of eight in a row. St. Louis has played better of late in alternating wins and losses. However, offense is a problem for the Blues, having scored two oe fewer goals in seven of 10 starts. With the Avs 11-0 in home games after scoring four goals or more in their previous game, winning by 2.3 GAG, it’s the home team on the PL. 

The Lightning have won four in a row, with their offense scoring 19 goals. This could be an issue for Anaheim, which has allowed 29 goals in its last six contests, losing five times. This season, Tampa Bay is 6-0 in away games against goalies saving

Colorado has played like the best team in the NHL right from the start and is currently on a seven-game win streak. The Avs can win high or low-scoring games and are unbeaten at home in regulation at 15-0-2. L.A. came out of the break with a 6-1 blasting of Anaheim, but is just 2-6 recently, otherwise, having not scored more than two goals in its prior seven contests. Take note that the Kings are 2-9 in away games off a win against a division rival, most importantly losing by 2.4 GAG. Avalanche on the PL.