|
07-19-26 |
Winnipeg -3.5 v. Ottawa |
Top |
36-34 |
Loss |
-100 |
147 h 48 m |
Show
|
TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Winnipeg -3½ +100
Our Edge: The market is anchored to Zach Collaros's uncertain status and pricing Winnipeg like a wounded favorite, when the underlying matchup data says a Dru Brown-led Bombers offense still profiles as a decisive mismatch against the league's most permissive pass defense.
Statistical Edges:
• Ottawa Pass Defense: The Redblacks have allowed a league-high 11 touchdown passes and 13 explosive plays of 30+ yards, ranking dead last in schedule-adjusted pass defense efficiency.
This is a structural weakness, not a variance blip.
• Dru Brown Recent Output: Winnipeg's backup threw for 339 yards and a touchdown in a 30-21 win over Toronto, earning CFL Player of the Week honors.
The efficiency gap between Brown and Collaros is narrower than the market has priced.
• Ottawa Recent Form: The Redblacks are coming off a 40-17 blowout loss to Edmonton, allowing 40 points to a four-win team.
That is a signal of coverage breakdown, not a bad day.
• Line Value: -3.5 at +100 implies a break-even rate of 50%.
The half-hook over the key number of 3 is where the market is charging for Collaros uncertainty, and we are getting even money on a Winnipeg side whose quantitative floor sits well above that threshold.
Psychological Edges: The market is trapped by an availability heuristic centered on the Collaros injury designation.
His DNP status is the most easily recalled data point in the news cycle, which crowds out the base-rate reality that Brown just produced a 339-yard, Player-of-the-Week performance against a better defense than Ottawa's.
Bookmakers are pricing the narrative of quarterback uncertainty.
Our framework prices the matchup, and the matchup is Ottawa's league-worst pass defense against a Winnipeg passing attack that has not slowed down.
EDGE ON: WINNIPEG -3.5 (+100)
I like the Winnipeg |
|
07-18-26 |
Montreal -1.5 v. Calgary |
Top |
38-32 |
Win
|
100 |
120 h 56 m |
Show
|
TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Montreal -1½ +100
Our Edge: The market is anchored to Calgary's late-game rally in the July 11 meeting and to a generic home-field premium, mispricing a rematch in which the Stampeders are missing their most efficient scoring inputs on both sides of the ball.
Statistical Edges:
• QB Efficiency: Montreal's Davis Alexander has cleared 300 passing yards in five consecutive games to open the season, including 301 yards and a touchdown against this same Calgary defense on July 11.
That is a league-leading pace and a stable Bayesian prior, not a small-sample spike.
• Receiver Production: Alouettes WR Tyson Philpot has posted four straight 100-plus yard games.
Calgary counters with DBs Jaydon Grant OUT and Ashton Miller-Melancon questionable, a coverage group without the personnel to change its shell.
• Points-Scored Liability: Calgary is without All-Star WR Reggie Begelton (knee) and kicker Rene Paredes (hip).
In a game the market is pricing at 1.5 points of separation, subtracting a veteran kicker who historically absorbs a meaningful share of Stampeder scoring is a direct hit to their number.
• Home Baseline: Calgary sits at 1-2 at home this season.
The home-field premium baked into the -1.5 is not supported by their actual home efficiency.
Psychological Edges: The line is a classic case of recency bias layered on the availability heuristic.
The final three minutes of the July 11 game, 14 Calgary points and a drive to the Montreal 15, is the most vivid data point available, so the market treats it as predictive.
It is not.
Alexander's 301-yard performance in that same game is the base rate; the late Calgary surge is variance around it.
Strip out the narrative, price in the Begelton and Paredes absences, and Montreal is the cleaner side at plus money.
EDGE ON: MONTREAL -1.5 (+100)
I like the Montreal |
|
07-17-26 |
BC v. Edmonton Elks -2 |
Top |
17-19 |
Push |
0 |
4 h 32 m |
Show
|
|
TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Edmonton Elks -2 -110
|
|
07-12-26 |
Hamilton v. Saskatchewan -7 |
Top |
7-38 |
Win
|
100 |
149 h 17 m |
Show
|
TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Saskatchewan -7 -115
Our Edge
We are exploiting a market that has adjusted the number for the Bo Levi Mitchell injury but still under-prices the quarterback replacement drop-off, laying -7 with Saskatchewan at home in optimal conditions.
Statistical Edges
• Quarterback Replacement Value: Hamilton starter Bo Levi Mitchell underwent ankle surgery on July 6 and is shelved for at least six games, a shock to a passing offense with no in-house continuity plan.
• Backup Efficiency: Tiger-Cats backup Tre Ford went 3-of-7 for 12 yards with an interception in relief on July 5, a sub-2 yards-per-attempt collapse that would rank at the bottom of the league among any meaningful sample.
• Defensive Ceiling Constraint: Hamilton's defense held Winnipeg to 14 points in a 14-13 loss, meaning even a functional defensive performance still yielded a losing margin when the offense produced 13.
• Environmental Fit: The July 12 Regina forecast calls for clear skies and 28°C, neutralizing the wind and precipitation variance that typically compresses CFL spreads and letting the Roughriders' turf-speed advantage express itself.
Psychological Edges
The market is trapped by anchoring bias.
The line moved off a full-strength Hamilton baseline and settled at -7, which feels heavy in a CFL context where the field is longer and comebacks are structurally easier.
That anchor is the story the price is paying for.
The underlying data no longer supports it.
A one-week rebuild of the offense around a mobile passer who just posted 1.7 yards per attempt is not a coaching problem the market has correctly priced.
The availability of recent close CFL finishes is crowding out the base rate for what happens when a team loses its franchise quarterback and hands the offense to a backup with no rhythm.
EDGE ON: SASKATCHEWAN -7 (-115)
I like the Saskatchewan |
|
07-10-26 |
Toronto v. Winnipeg +2.5 |
Top |
21-30 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 26 m |
Show
|
|
TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Winnipeg +2½ -108
|
|
06-20-26 |
Montreal v. Edmonton Elks +3.5 |
Top |
29-32 |
Win
|
100 |
93 h 9 m |
Show
|
TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Edmonton Elks +3½ -105
Our Edge
We are exploiting a market that has priced Edmonton as a home underdog purely on quarterback narrative, ignoring that Montreal travels on short prep into adverse weather without their best defender.
Statistical Edges
• Rest Differential: Edmonton enters off a Week 2 bye, last playing June 6 against Ottawa.
That is two full weeks of schemed preparation against a Montreal staff working a standard turnaround, a structural edge that shows up disproportionately in early-season CFL ATS splits.
• Injury-Adjusted Defense: Montreal is without Tyrice Beverette, their reigning East Division Most Outstanding Defensive Player nominee, placed on the one-game injured list June 19.
Losing your defensive anchor on a travel week is a quantifiable EPA-per-play hit, not a vibes adjustment.
• Weather-Adjusted Pass Efficiency: Forecast at Commonwealth Stadium calls for a 60% chance of showers with gusty winds at kickoff.
Montreal's offensive identity is vertical and rhythm-based; rain compresses pass-game variance and pulls the projected margin toward the mean.
• Spread Structure: The +3.5 (-105) buys the full hook past the key number of 3.
In a league where roughly a quarter of games land on 3, that half-point is real expected value, not cosmetic.
Psychological Edges
The market is paying for an availability heuristic.
Davis Alexander's 13-0 career regular-season streak is the easiest data point to recall, so it dominates the line, while the harder-to-retrieve inputs (Beverette out, two-week prep gap, rain forecast, hook past 3) get underweighted.
Streaks attached to a single name generate halo effect pricing; the public anchors to the quarterback, the book shades the number, and the schedule-adjusted floor on the home dog gets ignored.
Our framework Bayesian-updates against the streak rather than extrapolating from it.
The number we want is closer to a pick'em in these conditions.
EDGE ON: EDMONTON ELKS +3.5 (-105)
I like the Edmonton Elks |
|
06-19-26 |
BC +1 v. Hamilton |
Top |
27-41 |
Loss |
-115 |
76 h 2 m |
Show
|
TOP BENNETT EDGE ON BC +1 -115
Our Edge: The market is anchored to a two-game sample where Hamilton's 1-1 record looks better than BC's 0-1, but the underlying talent gradient and quarterback differential price BC as the side the public is undervaluing at +1 (-115).
Statistical Edges:
• AMSOIL Power Rankings: BC entered the season ranked #2 in the league, trailing only the defending champion Roughriders.
That preseason baseline is built on roster-level inputs, not two weeks of variance.
• Quarterback Tier Differential: Nathan Rourke is a top-of-league CFL passer who staged a second-half comeback in Regina and lost on a last-minute touchdown.
The closing-margin data shows BC was a coin flip away from 1-0 against a Grey Cup champion.
• Roster Reinforcement: BC added returner/receiver Jermaine Jackson on June 16.
The market had not priced in the special-teams upgrade or the receiving depth boost when this line was posted.
• Spread Implication: A +1 number on a road team that opened the year ranked second in the league signals the book itself views this as a pick'em.
The -115 juice is the cost of the road designation, not a reflection of a true talent gap.
Psychological Edges: The market is paying for the availability heuristic.
Hamilton's upset of Winnipeg and Bo Levi Mitchell's two-week stretch are the most easily recalled data points, which crowds out the longer baseline that has BC as a top-two roster and Mitchell as a regression candidate.
The narrative bias around 'Heritage Night' and home-field motivation is real to the crowd but invisible on the scoreboard.
Bayesian updating on a one-game BC sample, where the team led for most of the second half, should move the prior only marginally.
The line has overcorrected.
EDGE ON: BC +1 (-115)
I like the BC |
|
06-11-26 |
Hamilton +3 v. Winnipeg |
Top |
37-27 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 3 m |
Show
|
|
TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Hamilton +3 -108
|
|
06-05-26 |
Winnipeg v. Calgary +2 |
Top |
30-28 |
Push |
0 |
3 h 48 m |
Show
|
|
TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Calgary +2 -110
|
|
11-16-25 |
Montreal +3 v. Saskatchewan |
Top |
17-25 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 18 m |
Show
|
|
TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Montreal +3 -110
|
|
11-08-25 |
Montreal -2.5 v. Hamilton |
Top |
19-16 |
Win
|
100 |
96 h 31 m |
Show
|
|
TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Montreal -2½ -110
|
|
11-01-25 |
Winnipeg v. Montreal -5.5 |
Top |
33-42 |
Win
|
100 |
52 h 14 m |
Show
|
|
TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Montreal -5½ -112
|
|
10-18-25 |
Montreal -9.5 v. Ottawa |
Top |
39-28 |
Win
|
100 |
47 h 25 m |
Show
|
|
TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Montreal -9½ -110
|
|
10-17-25 |
Saskatchewan v. Winnipeg -7 |
Top |
16-17 |
Loss |
-110 |
36 h 4 m |
Show
|
|
TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Winnipeg -7 -110
|
|
10-13-25 |
Ottawa v. Montreal -13.5 |
Top |
10-30 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 2 m |
Show
|
|
TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Montreal -13½ -110
|
|
10-11-25 |
Calgary v. Hamilton -3.5 |
Top |
37-20 |
Loss |
-103 |
3 h 44 m |
Show
|
|
TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Hamilton -3½ -103
|
|
10-10-25 |
Toronto v. Saskatchewan -10.5 |
Top |
19-27 |
Loss |
-109 |
72 h 1 m |
Show
|
|
TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Saskatchewan -10½ -109
|
|
10-04-25 |
Hamilton -1.5 v. Toronto |
Top |
47-29 |
Win
|
100 |
52 h 35 m |
Show
|
|
TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Hamilton -1½ -107
|
|
10-03-25 |
Saskatchewan -3.5 v. Ottawa |
Top |
20-13 |
Win
|
100 |
52 h 43 m |
Show
|
|
TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Saskatchewan -3½ -105
|
|
09-27-25 |
Saskatchewan -3.5 v. Edmonton Elks |
Top |
25-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
72 h 0 m |
Show
|
|
TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Saskatchewan -3½ -110
|
|
09-26-25 |
Calgary v. Montreal -3.5 |
Top |
20-38 |
Win
|
100 |
74 h 28 m |
Show
|
|
TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Montreal -3½ -110
|
|
09-20-25 |
Winnipeg v. Ottawa -1.5 |
Top |
26-18 |
Loss |
-110 |
73 h 17 m |
Show
|
|
TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Ottawa -1½ -110
|
|
09-19-25 |
Montreal -6 v. Toronto |
Top |
21-19 |
Loss |
-110 |
77 h 46 m |
Show
|
|
TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Montreal -6 -110
|
|
09-13-25 |
Montreal +8.5 v. Saskatchewan |
Top |
48-31 |
Win
|
100 |
73 h 41 m |
Show
|
|
TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Montreal +8½ -110
|
|
09-06-25 |
Hamilton v. Montreal +3.5 |
Top |
26-9 |
Loss |
-110 |
66 h 60 m |
Show
|
|
TOP BENNETT EDGE ON Montreal +3½ -110
|
|
09-05-25 |
BC -7 v. Ottawa |
Top |
33-34 |
Loss |
-105 |
5 h 48 m |
Show
|
|
TOP BENNETT EDGE ON BC -7 -105
|
|
09-01-25 |
Edmonton Elks +7.5 v. Calgary |
Top |
7-28 |
Loss |
-108 |
79 h 51 m |
Show
|
|
away +7½ -108
|
|
08-31-25 |
Winnipeg +5.5 v. Saskatchewan |
Top |
30-34 |
Win
|
100 |
100 h 0 m |
Show
|
|
away +5½ -110
|
|
08-23-25 |
Saskatchewan v. Calgary +1 |
Top |
15-32 |
Win
|
100 |
33 h 4 m |
Show
|
|
home +1 -108
|
|
08-22-25 |
Edmonton Elks -3 v. Ottawa |
Top |
30-20 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 16 m |
Show
|
|
away -3 -114
|
|
08-16-25 |
Hamilton v. Saskatchewan -3 |
Top |
9-29 |
Win
|
100 |
90 h 1 m |
Show
|
|
home -3 -110
|
|
08-15-25 |
Toronto +3 v. Edmonton Elks |
Top |
20-28 |
Loss |
-109 |
12 h 49 m |
Show
|
|
away +3 -109
|
|
08-09-25 |
Winnipeg +5 v. Calgary |
Top |
27-28 |
Win
|
100 |
52 h 19 m |
Show
|
|
away +5 -110
|
|
08-08-25 |
Edmonton Elks +2.5 v. Montreal |
Top |
23-22 |
Win
|
100 |
50 h 3 m |
Show
|
|
away +2½ -103
|
|
08-02-25 |
Saskatchewan -2.5 v. Montreal |
Top |
34-6 |
Win
|
100 |
97 h 31 m |
Show
|
|
away -2½ -110
|
|
08-01-25 |
Toronto +6.5 v. Winnipeg |
Top |
31-40 |
Loss |
-110 |
77 h 35 m |
Show
|
|
away +6½ -110
|
|
07-31-25 |
Calgary v. Ottawa +5 |
Top |
11-31 |
Win
|
100 |
51 h 4 m |
Show
|
|
home +5 -110
|
|
07-27-25 |
Hamilton v. BC -3 |
Top |
37-33 |
Loss |
-105 |
116 h 22 m |
Show
|
|
home -3 -105
|
|
07-24-25 |
Montreal v. Calgary -5.5 |
Top |
23-21 |
Loss |
-115 |
54 h 23 m |
Show
|
|
home -5½ -115
|
|
07-19-25 |
Saskatchewan v. BC -1.5 |
Top |
33-27 |
Loss |
-105 |
70 h 47 m |
Show
|
|
home -1½ -105
|
|
07-18-25 |
Calgary +3.5 v. Winnipeg |
Top |
41-20 |
Win
|
100 |
50 h 53 m |
Show
|
|
away +3½ -110
|
|
07-17-25 |
Toronto v. Montreal -8.5 |
Top |
25-26 |
Loss |
-108 |
48 h 18 m |
Show
|
|
home -8½ -108
|
|
07-13-25 |
BC v. Edmonton Elks +3.5 |
Top |
32-14 |
Loss |
-110 |
120 h 2 m |
Show
|
|
home +3½ -110
|
|
07-12-25 |
Ottawa +5 v. Hamilton |
Top |
20-23 |
Win
|
100 |
83 h 44 m |
Show
|
|
away +5 -110
|
|
07-11-25 |
Calgary +5 v. Saskatchewan |
Top |
24-10 |
Win
|
100 |
53 h 31 m |
Show
|
|
away +5 -107
|
|
07-06-25 |
Ottawa v. Edmonton Elks +2.5 |
Top |
33-39 |
Win
|
100 |
71 h 32 m |
Show
|
|
home +2½ -110
|
|
07-05-25 |
BC +5.5 v. Montreal |
Top |
21-20 |
Win
|
100 |
96 h 33 m |
Show
|
|
away +5½ -110
|
|
07-04-25 |
Hamilton -1.5 v. Toronto |
Top |
51-38 |
Win
|
100 |
34 h 1 m |
Show
|
|
away -1½ -110
|
|
07-03-25 |
Winnipeg -3 v. Calgary |
Top |
16-37 |
Loss |
-110 |
51 h 47 m |
Show
|
|
away -3 -110
|
|
06-29-25 |
Toronto +2.5 v. Ottawa |
Top |
29-16 |
Win
|
100 |
101 h 33 m |
Show
|
|
away +2½ -105
|
|
06-28-25 |
BC +4.5 v. Saskatchewan |
Top |
18-37 |
Loss |
-110 |
75 h 3 m |
Show
|
|
away +4½ -110
|
|
06-27-25 |
Montreal v. Hamilton +2.5 |
Top |
17-35 |
Win
|
100 |
58 h 2 m |
Show
|
|
home +2½ +100
|
|
06-21-25 |
Winnipeg -2.5 v. BC |
Top |
27-14 |
Win
|
100 |
79 h 32 m |
Show
|
|
away -2½ -110
|
|
06-20-25 |
Saskatchewan -3 v. Toronto |
Top |
39-32 |
Win
|
100 |
76 h 2 m |
Show
|
|
away -3 -103
|
|
06-19-25 |
Montreal -5.5 v. Edmonton Elks |
Top |
38-28 |
Win
|
100 |
51 h 49 m |
Show
|
|
away -5½ -105
|