Free Football Picks

1* Free Pick on Cowboys +165

Preseason Week 1 is not a regular-season game, and the market keeps pricing it like one.

Seattle's 5-0 close to last season and that -0.1217 defensive EPA per play built the reputation, but Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Javonte Williams are all sitting Saturday.

So is most of Seattle's front line.

The star metrics don't apply.

The opposition case leans on Dallas giving up 33.8 points per game over their last five and posting 0.2601 defensive EPA per play across their last four.

Fair.

That was starters against starters in December.

Saturday is Sam Howell and Joe Milton III running the offense against Seattle's second and third-team defense, and the Cowboys' backup reps in camp have been aggressive by design.

Seattle's backfield is a real problem for the home side.

Kenneth Walker left for Kansas City, Zach Charbonnet is on PUP with a knee, and rookie Jadarian Price has been limited with lower-body soreness.

That leaves George Holani and Emanuel Wilson trying to sustain drives against a Dallas front where Quinnen Williams anchors the middle.

Dallas also has legitimate roster-battle motivation.

Blue and Mafah are in a heated fight for the RB2 job.

Howell and Milton are competing for QB2.

That's a group playing hard into the fourth quarter.

At +165, the implied 37.7% win rate is light for a coin-flip exhibition where variance rules.

Give me the points.

I like the Cowboys

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Kansas City Royals +142

The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Kansas City Royals as big underdogs to the Los Angeles Angels.  The Angels have the worst record in the majors at 48-75 on the season and were big sellers at the deadline.  Reid Detmers is 3-8 with a 4.07 ERA in 24 starts this season and is 0-5 in 13 home starts, still in search of his 1st home win.  Detmers is 0-1 with a 8.10 ERA in his last 2 starts against the Royals, yielding 9 ER and 3 HR in 10 innings.  Randy Dobnak continues to get disrespected with this line despite being 2-1 with a 2.00 ERA this year yielding only 8 ER and 2 HR in 36 innings.  Take Kansas City.

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Ian Machado Garry moneyline is the live dog I’m betting on at UFC 330.

Makhachev rolls in with that ridiculous 16-fight UFC win streak and the kind of resume that makes the chalk look invincible on paper. Garry sits 17-1 overall, 10-1 inside the Octagon, and just stacked back-to-back wins including a former champ. The size gap is real: Garry at 6'3" with a 74.5-inch reach against Makhachev’s 5'10" and 70.5-inch wingspan. That four-inch reach edge is pure structural leverage. It forces the shorter guy to walk into jabs and teeps just to get in range.

Strike output tells the rest of the story. Garry pumps out 4.78 significant strikes per minute. Makhachev sits around 2.45. That’s a 2.3-strike differential every minute the fight stays standing. Stretch that over five championship rounds and the volume gap gets loud if Garry can keep the distance. Makhachev’s 3.10 takedowns per 15 minutes is still the biggest hammer on the card, but Garry’s been defending at roughly 80 percent lately and has shown he can scramble back up when the pressure hits.

Historically the bigger, rangier underdogs who also own the volume edge have made life miserable for recently moved-up champs more often than the public wants to admit. Garry already solved some awkward, long opponents. His only loss came against a pure grappler who dragged him into deep water. Since then he’s cleaned up the details.

The number right now prices him as a low-to-mid 20s percent dog. I have him closer to 30-33 percent true. That gap is the edge. Once the price drifts past the +220 range the expected value flips positive and the ticket starts looking like sharp action instead of square hope.

I’m not blind. One clean body lock from Makhachev and the whole script flips. His top control is still elite and he rarely gives rounds away once he gets there. But the combination of reach, volume, recent form, and the fact that Makhachev still has limited sample size against tall technical strikers who actually jab in open stance makes this the side I want exposure to.

If the early rounds stay on the feet and Garry banks the first couple of scorecards, the pressure shifts fast and the chalk starts sweating. That’s the angle. That’s the number. That’s the action I’m most comfortable sitting with when the cage door closes in Philly.

My selection is on Texas over the Athletics at 9:40 pm et on Saturday.

A bit of a desperation spot for the Rangers here as they look to end their four-game losing streak following a loss in the opener of this series last night. Texas will be seeing A's starter J.T. Ginn for the second time this season after suffering a 6-5 loss in their first look at him. Ginn labored through that outing but was ultimately bailed out by the A's bats. I expect a different story to unfold here. Rangers starter MacKenzie Gore is pitching as well as he has all season, yielding just four earned runs over his last three starts. The Rangers lone defeat over his last six outings came in a tough matchup on the road against the red hot Rays. Look for Gore to serve as a 'stopper' for the Rangers on Saturday. Take Texas (8*).