20* Blue Jays/Dodgers Game 5 No-Brainer on OVER 7.5

The Blue Jays and Dodgers have combined for at least 8 runs in five of their six meetings since August 9th.  Both teams are scoring over 5.0 runs per game this season as these are two of the best offenses in baseball.  The offenses will continue to have the advantage in Game 5, especially with temps in the 80's tonight with the ball flying out.

This is a rematch from Game 1 where Toronto beat LA 11-4 for 15 combined runs.  Trey Yesavage allowed 2 earned runs and 7 base runners in 4 innings.  Yesavage has now allowed 9 earned runs and 22 base runners in 13 2/3 innings in his last three playoff starts.  He won't last very long in this one, and the Dodgers should do some damage against this suspect Toronto bullpen.

Blake Snell was shelled for 5 earned runs and 11 base runners in 5 innings in Game 1 to the Blue Jays.  Snell hasn't lasted more than 5 innings in any of his last three starts against Toronto.  So the Dodgers' suspect bullpen will get exposed in this one as well, and both teams should continue to pour on the runs in the later innings.  Bet the OVER in Game 5 Wednesday.

20* Blue Jays/Dodgers Game 4 No-Brainer on OVER 8

The 18-inning marathon last night taxed both of these bullpens.  I don't trust either Shane Bieber or Shohei Ohtani to be able to go very deep in Game 4, and the hitters should have the advantage.  Temps will be approaching 90 at game time for this one so the ball should be carrying out as well.

Ohtani has to be especially tired after playing all 18 innings last night and reaching base 9 times!  I really think it could affect his performance on the mound, and at the very least he won't be as sharp as he normally would.  He may wear down after a few innings.

The Dodgers should crush Shane Bieber, who has allowed at least 2 earned runs in five consecutive starts and a total of 6 homers in his last five starts.  Ohani has posted a 5.25 ERA in two career home starts against the Blue Jays, allowing 7 earned runs and 2 homers in 12 innings.  Both bullpens will get rocked when they depart.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Dodgers/Blue Jays Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -130

The Dodgers were 9-1 in the playoffs coming into the World Series.  I think the long layoff hurt them as they had a week in between sweeping the Brewers in the NLCS and Game 1 of the World Series.  They have no shaken off their rust after an 11-4 loss in Game 1, and I fully expect them to bounce back in Game 2 tonight.

The Dodgers have a big advantage on the mound tonight with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who is 14-9 with a 2.33 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 33 starts this season, including 10-4 with a 2.04 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 19 road starts.  Yamamoto is 2-1 with a 1.83 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in three playoff starts.  He is coming off a complete game 3-hitter in a 5-1 win over the Brewers in his last start.

Kevin Gausman is one of the more overrated starters in baseball.  He is 12-12 with a 3.45 ERA in 35 starts this season, including 7-6 with a 3.67 ERA in 18 home starts.  Gausman has allowed 7 earned runs and 3 homers in 15 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Dodgers.  Bet the Dodgers in Game 2 Saturday.

15* Dodgers/Blue Jays Game 1 ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7.5

The Dodgers have the most potent offense in baseball and are capable of covering this total on their own.  They are scoring 5.06 runs per game on the season.  But the Blue Jays are also led by an offense that scores 5.02 runs per game this season, and they strike out less than any other team in baseball.  They will make these Dodgers pitchers work for everything they get.

No question Blake Snell has been dominant this postseason, but this is a long layoff for him as it will be his first start since October 13th.  He walks a lot of batters and always has a high pitch count early, and I think the Blue Jays' patience at the plate will pay off as they get into this dicey Dodgers bullpen early in this one.  The Dodgers' bullpen is their biggest weakness.

The Blue Jays just have a pitching weakness in general as their starters are poor, and their bullpen is unreliable.  That's why they are starting a rookie in Trey Yesavage, who has been rocked in the playoffs.  Yesavage has allowed 7 earned runs and 15 base runners in 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Mariners.  He won't go deep in this one, either, exposing this Toronto bullpen.  

The Dodgers and Blue Jays have combined for at least 9 runs in six of their last nine meetings.  This total of 7.5 is too short for Game 1 tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Mariners/Blue Jays ALCS No-Brainer on OVER 7.5

The books continue to set the total in this series too short.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five games with 13 combined runs in Game 2, 17 in Game 3, 10 in Game 4, 8 in Game 5 and 8 in Game 6.  The OVER is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings between the Blue Jays and Mariners this season with 8 or more combined runs in 10 of them, an 9 or more in nine of them.

Keep in mind these teams combined for only 8 runs in Game 6 only because they combined to strand bases loaded with less than two outs three times!  The Mariners and Blue Jays combined for 18 hits and 10 walks, so 28 base runners and only managed 8 runs.  There's so much room for more runs, which is why this 7.5 number is such a good value.

Like many of these Mariners starters, George Kirby has huge home/road splits.  Kirby is 5-4 with a 5.16 ERA in 11 road starts this season.  He is 0-1 with a 7.07 ERA in three playoff starts.  Kirby allowed 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 4 innings in a 13-4 loss to the Blue Jays in Game 3.  He is now 0-2 with a 10.29 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in his last three starts against the Blue Jays, allowing 16 earned runs and 4 homers in 14 innings.

Shane Bieber has allowed at least 2 earned runs in four consecutive starts and a total of 5 homers in 20 innings in those four starts.  Both bullpens are shaky to say the least as these offenses continue having the advantage in the later innings.  Now that these hitters have seen these relievers multiple times, it's only an even bigger advantage for them tonight.  Bet the OVER in Game 7 Monday.

20* Mariners/Blue Jays ALCS No-Brainer on OVER 7.5

The books continue to set the total in this series too short.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four games with 13 combined runs in Game 2, 17 combined runs in Game 3, 10 combined runs in Game 4 and 8 in Game 5.  The OVER is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between the Blue Jays and Mariners this season with 8 or more combined runs in nine of them, an 9 or more combined runs in eight of them.

This will be a starting pitching rematch from Game 2 when the Mariners beat the Blue Jays 10-3.  Trey Yesavage allowed 5 earned runs in 4 innings to take the loss, while Logan Gilbert only lasted 3 innings while giving up 3 runs.  Gilbert has huge home/road splits this season and in his career.  Gilbert is 4-4 with a 4.65 ERA in 14 road starts this season.

Both bullpens are shaky to say the least as these offenses continue having the advantage in the later innings.  Now that these hitters have seen these relievers multiple times, it's only an even bigger advantage as this series goes on.  Bet the OVER in Game 6 Sunday.

20* Blue Jays/Mariners ALCS No-Brainer on OVER 7

The books continue to make the mistake of setting these totals between the Blue Jays and Mariners too low.  They combined for 13 runs in Game 2, 17 runs in Game 3 and 10 runs in Game 4.  After a 7.5-run total in Game 4, they've actually lowered it to 7 for Game 5, and that's great value to back this OVER.  These are two of the best offenses in baseball, and I expect another high-scoring Game 5 tonight.

I like the fact that both offenses already got to see these two starting pitchers in Game 1, and I expect the hitters to have the advantage in the rematch.  Hitters have also seen every reliever they are going to see in this series, so they will continue to pile on the runs in the later innings as well.

The Blue Jays have scored 21 runs in their last two games.  Bryce Miller will not shut them down again like he did in Game 1.  Miller is 5-6 with a 5.36 ERA in 20 starts this season, including 2-3 with a 5.80 ERA in nine home starts.  He allowed 7 earned runs in 5 innings to the Blue Jays in his lone start against them in the regular season.

I expect the Mariners to do more damage at the plate tonight.  Kevin Gausman is 1-1 with a 4.09 ERA in two starts against the Blue Jays this season, allowing 5 earned runs in 11 innings.  Gausman is 1-1 with a 4.67 ERA in three career road starts at Seattle, allowing 9 earned runs and 4 homers in 17 1/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

25* MLB Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Blue Jays/Mariners OVER 7.5

After combining for 13 runs in Game 2, the Blue Jays and Mariners topped it in Game 3 with 17 combined runs.  The books have failed to adjust this total up high enough, and we'll take advantage by backing the OVER 7.5 in Game 4 in what is my strongest over/under release of the playoffs to this point.

Hitters proved that Seattle is not exactly a pitcher's park last night.  These teams combined for 26 hits and 8 homers in Game 3.  The starting pitcher matchup is even worse in Game 4, and both of these bullpens have now been exposed and hitters will know what to expect from every reliever they see.

Max Scherzer is washed, going 5-5 with a 5.19 ERA in 17 starts this season, including 2-4 with a 5.91 ERA in seven road starts.  Scherzer has been a disaster down the stretch, allowing 21 earned runs and 6 homers in 19 innings in his last five starts for a 9.95 ERA during this stretch.

Luis Castilo is 12-8 with a 3.42 ERA in 33 starts this season and lasted just 4 2/3 innings in his lone playoff start against the Tigers.  Castillo does not enjoy facing the Blue Jays, going 1-1 with a 7.20 ERA and 2.10 WHIP in two starts against them in 2025 while allowing 8 earned runs and 21 base runners in 10 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Blue Jays/Mariners ALCS ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7

The Toronto Blue Jays ranked near the top of baseball in hitting on the road against right-handed starters since the All-Star Break.  They will get their bats going tonight, and the Mariners should stay hot at the plate in a game that should easily top 7 combined runs.

The Mariners put up 10 runs to cover the total on their own in Game 2, and they should do more damage here against Shane Bieber.  He is 4-2 with a 3.77 ERA in eight starts this season, and 2-1 with a 4.29 ERA in four road starts.  Bieber allowed 3 runs and 6 base runners in 2 2/3 innings in his lone playoff start.

George Kirby is 10-8 with a 4.10 ERA in 25 starts for the Mariners this season, including 2-3 with a 4.76 ERA in his last 10 starts.  Kirby does not enjoy facing the Blue Jays, going 0-1 with a 6.28 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in three career starts against them while allowing 10 earned runs and 25 hits in 14 1/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Dodgers/Brewers NLCS No-Brainer on OVER 7

Nerves were a problem for hitters in Game 1 of this series last night in a 2-1 pitcher's duel.  We saw the same thing in Mariners/Blue Jays Game 1 which was a 3-1 final.  But just like the hitters calmed down and mashed in Game 2 for 13 combined runs yesterday in Mariners/Blue Jays, hitters will calm down and come to life in Game 2 of this series tonight.

Both starting pitchers are coming off concerning results.  Yoshinobu Yamamoto allowed 3 earned runs in 4 innings of a 8-2 loss to the Phillies in his last start.  Yamamoto allowed 5 runs, 3 earned, and 6 base runners in 2/3 of an inning in his lone career start against Milwaukee, a 9-1 defeat.

Freddy Peralta allowed 5 earned runs, 3 homers and 12 base runners in 9 2/3 innings in two starts against the Cubs last series.  Peralta allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings of a 8-7 win over the Dodgers in his last start against them on July 19th.  

The Brewers already have a taxed bullpen after using 6 relievers last night.  The Dodgers blew through their two best relievers in closer Sasaki and setup man Treinan last night in trying to close out a shaky 9th inning after 8 brilliant innings from Blake Snell.  I expect both teams to have to use some of their worst relievers tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Mariners/Blue Jays ALCS No-Brainer on OVER 7.5

The Seattle Mariners played their first series against the Detroit Tigers in pitcher-friendly ball parks both at home and on the road.  Now they get to play in a hitter-friendly park in Toronto for at least half of the games in this series, including Game 2 tonight.

Toronto and New York combined for 11 and 20 runs in their two games in Toronto last series.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Blue Jays and Mariners this season with 9 or more combined runs in five of those six, including 11 and 12 combined runs in the two regular season meetings in Toronto.  The Blue Jays score 5.0 runs per game while the Mariners score 4.7 runs per game this season as these are two of the best offenses in the American League.

I think hitters were battling the nerves in Game 1 of this series which saw just 4 combined runs.  I think they will settle in for Game 2, and we will see much more of a slug fest in this one.  I also think the starting pitchers these lineups will face are much more hittable in Game 2 as well.

The Blue Jays will go with rookie Trey Yesavage, who will be making just his 5th start of the season and will obviously be nervous.  The Mariners will go with Logan Gilbert, who has huge home/road splits this season.  Gilbert is 4-4 with a 4.59 ERA in 13 road starts.  He is 0-2 with a 5.24 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in six career starts against Toronto, allowing 20 earned runs, 8 homers and 49 base runners in 34 1/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Mariners/Blue Jays ALCS No-Brainer on OVER 7.5

The Seattle Mariners played their first series against the Detroit Tigers in pitcher-friendly ball parks both at home and on the road.  Now they get to play in a hitter-friendly park in Toronto for at least half of the games in this series, starting with Game 1 tonight.

Toronto and New York combined for 11 and 20 runs in their two games in Toronto last series.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings between the Blue Jays and Mariners this season with 9 or more combined runs in all five, including 11 and 12 combined runs in the two meetings in Toronto.  The Blue Jays score 5.01 runs per game while the Mariners score 4.7 runs per game this season as these are two of the best offenses in the American League.

The Mariners depleted their pitching staff by needing to go 15 innings to beat the Tigers 3-2 in Game 5 on Friday.  This is a quick turnaround for their staff, and now they are forced to throw their worst starting pitcher in Game 1 in Bryce Miller.  The Blue Jays should crush Miller, who is 4-6 with a 5.61 ERA in 19 starts this season.  He allowed 7 earned runs in 5 innings to the Blue Jays in his lone start against them this season.

Kevin Gausman is one of the most overrated starters in baseball.  He is 6-5 with a 3.73 ERA in 17 home starts this season.  Gausman allowed 3 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings in his lone start against Seattle this season.  He has allowed 9 earned runs and 4 homers in 17 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Mariners.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* MLB Divisional Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Seattle Mariners +126

Once again, Tarik Skubal is getting too much respect from oddsmakers as a big road favorite over the Seattle Mariners in a winner-take-all Game 5.  The Tigers have the worst offense left in the playoffs, and their bullpen is very shaky as well.

Plus, the Tigers are 0-3 in Skubal's three starts against the Mariners this season!  Skubal is 0-2 with a 4.58 ERA in three starts against Seattle in 2025, allowing 9 earned runs and 4 homers in 17 2/3 innings.  Getting to see him for a 4th time already this season is a huge advantage to Seattle's hitters, which are much more potent than that of Detroit.

George Kirby is 5-4 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 13 home starts this season with 81 K's in 71 2/3 innings.  Kirby went 5 innings with 8 K's and 2 earned runs allowed in Game 1 of this series against the Tigers.  But those 2 earned runs should have never happened as the home plate ump missed strike 3 on the same batter that homered and was responsible for those 2 earned runs as he should have been out of the inning.

The Mariners were able to rest their best relievers in Game 4 due to the blowout nature of their loss to the Tigers.  They are set up well here with Kirby, followed by their two best relievers in Matt Brash (2.52 ERA) and closer Andres Munoz (1.64 ERA) to close this out once he departs.  Bet the Mariners in Game 5 Friday.

20* NLDS TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Phillies/Dodgers OVER 7.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 7.5 ticket tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to center in Los Angeles tonight.  These are two of the best offenses in baseball with unreliable bullpens, and there have been a lot of runs scored in the late innings in this series as a result.

Crispher Sanchez does not enjoy facing the Dodgers, posting a 4.91 ERA while allowing 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 18 1/3 innings in three starts against them this season.  Those three starts saw 8, 15 and 15 combined runs going 3-0 to the OVER.  Getting to see Sanchez for a 4th time already this season is a big advantage to Dodgers hitters.

Tyler Glasnow has not pitched since September 27th and the Dodgers must have held him out this long for a reason.  Glasnow allowed 5 earned runs in 2 innings of a 8-7 loss to the Phillies in his lone start against them this season.  He has posted a 7.36 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in three career starts against Philadelphia, allowing 9 earned runs and 19 base runners in 11 innings.  

The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the Dodgers and Phillies in Los Angeles.  Nine of those 10 meetings have seen 8 or more combined runs, so this total of 7.5 is pretty short for a game involving these two teams in L.A.  Bet the OVER in Game 4 Thursday.

20* Blue Jays/Yankees ALDS No-Brainer on OVER 8.5

Two of the best offenses in baseball are squaring off in this series between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees.  The Yankees are scoring 5.21 runs per game while the Blue Jays are scoring 5.01 runs per game this season.  The familiarity between these AL East rivals favors the hitters over the pitchers as well.

These teams combined for 11 runs in Game 1, 20 runs in Game 2 and 15 runs in Game 3.  The Blue Jays and Yankees have now combined for at least 8 runs in 19 of their last 25 meetings.  This total of 8.5 is too low, especially with the forecast calling for sustained 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to to the short porch in right with gusts up to 25 MPH.

The Blue Jays blew through their bullpen yesterday while blowing a 6-1 lead, and now they are going to make this a bullpen game Wednesday.  The Yankees are familiar with all these relievers and should have another big night at the plate.

Cameron Schlittler has been pretty good against almost any team not named the Blue Jays.  But Schlittler is 0-1 with an 8.10 ERA and 2.55 WHIP in two starts against Toronto this season, allowing 6 earned runs and 17 base runners in 6 2/3 innings.  The Yankees blew through their bullpen yesterday, too.  Bet the OVER in Game 4 Wednesday.

15* Mariners/Tigers ALDS Early ANNIHILATOR on Seattle +105

The Seattle Mariners got jobbed by the home plate umpire in Game 1 that allowed a 2-run homer by the Tigers to even happen and force extra by missing an obvious 3rd called strike on that same batter.  The Mariners showed tremendous resilience in Game 2, blowing a 2-0 lead by allowing 2 runs in the 8th before back-to-back doubles by their two best players in the bottom of the 8th in Raleigh and Rodriquez to win 3-2 as underdogs to Tarik Skubal, a game the Tigers had to have.  They carried that momentum into Game 3 with an 8-4 victory yesterday, and now I expect them to close out this series in Game 4 so they don't have to face Skubal again in Game 5.

Winning in Detroit has come quite easy for opponents down the stretch.  As the Tigers were choking away the AL Central, they have gone 0-8 in their last eight home games and haven't won a home game since September 6th!  Seattle is 8-1 in its last nine road games.  The Mariners have big advantages in the three key departments which is hitting, starting pitcher and bullpen. They should not be underdogs to the Tigers today.

Bryce Miller has absolutely owned the Tigers so it makes sense that he gets this start in Game 4.  Miller is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.58 WHIP in three career starts against Detroit, firing 19 shutout innings while allowing just 11 base runners.

Casey Mize is 1-1 with a 6.23 ERA in two starts against the Mariners this season, allowing 6 earned runs and 11 base runners in 8 2/3 innings.  He is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in two career home starts against Seattle, allowing 9 earned runs and 2 homers in 9 innings.  Bet the Mariners Wednesday.

20* ALDS TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blue Jays/Yankees OVER 7.5

Two of the best offenses in baseball are squaring off in this series between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees.  The Yankees are scoring 5.19 runs per game while the Blue Jays are scoring 5.01 runs per game this season.  The familiarity between these AL East rivals favors the hitters over the pitchers as well.

These teams combined for 11 runs in Game 1 and 20 runs in Game 2.  The Blue Jays and Yankees have now combined for at least 8 runs in 18 of their last 24 meetings.  This total of 7.5 is too low, especially with the forecast calling for sustained 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left and gusts of up to 25 MPH.

Shane Bieber has lost his fastball and is 4-2 with a 3.57 ERA in seven starts this season, including 2-1 with a 3.93 ERA in three road starts.  Bieber is 2-2 with a 5.05 ERA in seven career starts against the Yankees, allowing 23 earned runs and 8 homers in 41 innings.

Carlos Rodon does not enjoy facing the Blue Jays, going 1-3 with a 6.66 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in his last five starts against them while allowing 18 earned runs and 44 base runners in 24 1/3 innings.  Both bullpens leave a lot to be desired, especially New York's.  Bet the OVER in Game 3 Tuesday.

20* ALDS GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Mariners -126

The Seattle Mariners got jobbed by the home plate umpire in Game 1 that allowed a 2-run homer by the Tigers to even happen and force extra by missing an obvious 3rd called strike on that same batter.  The Mariners showed tremendous resilience in Game 2, blowing a 2-0 lead by allowing 2 runs in the 8th before back-to-back doubles by their two best players in the bottom of the 8th in Raleigh and Rodriquez to win 3-2 as underdogs to Tarik Skubal, a game the Tigers had to have.  Now I think the Mariners take control of this series with a Game 3 win in Detroit.

Winning in Detroit has come quite easy for opponents down the stretch.  As the Tigers were choking away the AL Central, they went 0-7 in their final seven home games and haven't won a home game since September 6th!  Seattle is 7-1 in its last eight road games.  The Mariners have big advantages in the three key departments which is hitting, starting pitcher and bullpen.  They should be bigger favorites tonight.

Logan Gilbert is 6-6 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 25 starts this season with 173 K's and only 31 walks in 131 innings.  Gilbert is 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA in three career road starts at Detroit, allowing just 3 earned runs in 17 innings.  He has allowed just 3 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings with 19 K's in two starts against the Tigers in 2025.

Jack Flaherty is washed up, going 8-15 with a 4.56 ERA in 32 starts this season.  He has posted a 4.22 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in four career starts against the Mariners, allowing 10 earned runs, 4 homers and 30 base runners in 21 1/3 innings.  Bet the Mariners in Game 3 Tuesday.

20* Dodgers/Phillies TBS No-Brainer on OVER 7.5

This total of 7.5 is too short in a matchup between two of the best offenses in baseball.  The Dodgers are scoring 5.14 runs per game while the Phillies are scoring 4.79 runs per game this season.  Both offenses are basically fully healthy in this series, too.

The Dodgers showed what they were capable of offensively by blasting the Reds 10-5 in Game 1 and 8-4 in Game 2 at home.  They also showed their bullpen is a mess, and it will continue to be a mess in this series with the Phillies.

Blake Snell has huge home/road splits this season.  Snell is 0-3 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in four road starts.  He is 2-3 with a 3.89 ERA in eight career starts against the Phillies as well.

Jesus Luzardo is one of the most overrated starters in baseball, and the Dodgers should get to him early and often.  Luzardo is 15-7 with a 3.92 ERA in 32 starts this season, including 8-2 with a 4.16 ERA in 16 home starts.  He has benefited from tremendous run support this season, and that will likely be the case again today.

The Dodgers and Phillies have combined for at least 8 runs in seven of their last 10 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Tigers/Mariners FS1 No-Brainer on Seattle +120

I love getting the Seattle Mariners as home underdogs in this must-win spot after losing Game 1 yesterday.  This is another classic case of Tarik Skubal getting too much respect from oddsmakers.  The Mariners have the much better lineup and better bullpen that can overcome Skubal in Game 2.

I question how much Skubal has left in the tank after going 107 pitches against the Guardians in Game 1 last series.  Skubal has not enjoyed facing the Mariners this season, allowing 7 earned runs, 2 homers and 15 base runners in 10 2/3 innings in two starts against them for a 5.90 ERA.

I like that the Mariners are going with Luis Castillo in Game 2 tonight.  He has been much better at home than on the road, going 5-4 with a 2.60 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 17 home starts this season.  Castillo is in a real groove to close out the season going 3-0 with a 1.07 ERA and 0.51 WHIP in his last four starts, allowing just 3 earned runs and 13 base runners in 25 1/3 innings.  He has posted a 3.00 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in five career home starts against Detroit.  Bet the Mariners in Game 2 Sunday.

20* Yankees/Blue Jays FS1 No-Brainer on OVER 8

Two of the best offenses in baseball square off in this series between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees.  The Yankees are scoring 5.17 runs per game while the Blue Jays are scoring 4.96 runs per game this season.  The familiarity between these AL East rivals favors the hitters over the pitchers as well.

Rookie Trey Yesavage will be making just his 4th career start in this huge spot and I don't trust him to handle it very well, especially up against this potent New York lineup.  His first three starts came against the Rays (twice) and Royals, two of the worst lineups in baseball.  This is a huge step up in class for him today.

The Yankees really have extended Max Fried a lot here down the stretch throwing at least 100 pitches in five of his last six starts.  He's not used to this kind of workload, and I expect him to wear down as the playoffs progress.  Fried does not enjoy facing the Blue Jays, allowing 11 earned runs in 18 1/3 innings in his last three starts against them since July 1st for a 5.40 ERA.

The OVER is 12-1-1 in the last 14 meetings between the Blue Jays and Yankees in Toronto with 9 or more combined runs in 13 of those 14 meetings.  This total of 8 is simply too short today.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Dodgers/Phillies TBS ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7

This total of 7 is too short in a matchup between two of the best offenses in baseball.  The Dodgers are scoring 5.14 runs per game while the Phillies are scoring 4.8 runs per game this season.  Both offenses are basically fully healthy heading into this series, too.

The Dodgers showed what they were capable of offensively by blasting the Reds 10-5 in Game 1 and 8-4 in Game 2 at home.  They also showed their bullpen is a mess, and it will continue to be a mess in this series with the Phillies.  Shohei Ohtani won't go deep into this game, so that bullpen will be exposed from the jump.

Cristopher Sanchez does not enjoy facing the Dodgers.  He has allowed 8 earned runs and 4 homers in 12 2/3 innings in his two starts against the Dodgers this season, which both saw 15 combined runs and sailed over the total.

The Dodgers and Phillies have combined for at least 8 runs in six of their last nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Yankees/Blue Jays FOX ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8

Two of the best offenses in baseball square off in this series between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees.  The Yankees are scoring 5.2 runs per game while the Blue Jays are scoring 4.93 runs per game this season.  The familiarity between these AL East rivals favors the hitters over the pitchers as well.

Luis Gil is 2-1 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in five road starts this season.  Gil is 1-1 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in four career starts against the Blue Jays.

Kevin Gausman is 5-5 with a 3.86 ERA in 16 home starts this season.  Gausman is 4-3 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in his last 12 starts against the Yankees.

The OVER is 11-1-1 in the last 13 meetings in Toronto with 9 or more combined runs in 12 of those 13 meetings.  This total of 8 is simply too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Padres/Cubs ESPN No-Brainer on Chicago -121

The Cubs should be bigger favorites over the San Diego Padres in this winner-take-all Game 3.  They have the advantage on the mound, they have the advantage at the plate, and they have home-field advantage in what should be a very hostile atmosphere in Chicago Thursday night.

I'll gladly fade the struggling Yu Darvish, who is 5-5 with a 5.38 ERA in 15 starts for the Padres this season.  Darvish has been at his worst on the road, going 1-3 with a 7.26 ERA in seven starts away from the pitcher-friendly confines of Petco Park in San diego.

Jameson Taillon has been solid all season for the Cubs going 11-7 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 23 starts.  Taillon has been at his best at home, going 5-2 with a 3.05 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 10 starts at Wrigley Field.  He has never lost to the Padres, going 2-0 with a 2.40 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in five career starts against them while allowing just 8 earned runs in 30 innings.  Bet the Cubs Thursday.

20* Tigers/Guardians ABC No-Brainer on Cleveland -109

The Cleveland Guardians came up clutch again last night to avoid elimination.  The Tigers barely won the game they had to have with Tarik Skubal on the mound in Game 1 needing two unearned runs for a 2-1 victory.  The Guardians responded with a 6-1 victory in Game 2, and now I expect the Guardians to win this series in Game 3 behind what will be a hostile Cleveland crowd this afternoon.

The Guardians are 20-5 in their last 25 games overall and playing with a ton of confidence, while the Tigers are 3-11 in their last 14 games overall and fortunate to even be here.  The Guardians have the much better bullpen with a 3.40 ERA on the season and a 0.00 ERA in these playoffs, while the Tigers have a 4.08 ERA as a bullpen and a 7.11 ERA in these playoffs.

Slade Cecconi has been dominant in his last four starts for the Guardians.  He has allowed just 6 earned runs and 18 base runners in 24 2/3 innings in his last four starts for a 2.19 ERA during this stretch.  Those were all must-win games as the Guardians were surging to try and make the playoffs, so he won't be rattled by this atmosphere.

Jack Flaherty has been rattled all season, going 8-15 with a 4.64 ERA in 31 starts for the Tigers.  That's especially been the case on the road where Flaherty is 3-7 with a 5.27 ERA in 14 starts away from home.  He allowed 3 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings in his lone road start at Cleveland this season.  Secconi is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in two starts against the Tigers this season, allowing just 3 earned runs in 12 innings.  Bet the Guardians Thursday.

20* MLB Wild Card GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-103)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have gone 10-2 in their last 12 games to win the NL West and home-field advantage in the wild card round.  The Dodgers are 6-1 in seven meetings with the Reds this season with five of those six wins coming by 3 runs or more, including a 10-5 win in Game 1.  I expect them to win by multiple runs again tonight due to their massive advantage on the mound and at the plate.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto is 12-8 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 30 starts this season.  He has allowed just 3 earned runs in 34 innings with 44 K's in his last five starts for a minuscule 0.79 ERA.  He allowed just one earned run in 7 innings of a 5-2 win over the Reds in his lone start against them this season.

Zack Littell is 10-8 with a 3.81 ERA in 32 starts this season for the Rays and Reds.  He has really struggled down the stretch, allowing 20 earned runs and 9 homers in 35 2/3 innings in his last seven starts for a 5.05 ERA.  This will be his first career start against the Dodgers, and it will not go well for him.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* Red Sox/Yankees ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 7

The forecast will aid us in cashing this UNDER 7 ticket between the Red Sox and Yankees tonight.  There will be 10-20 MPH winds blowing in from left at Yankee Stadium.  Two left-handed aces go tonight so pulling balls to left against them will be a big advantage for the pitchers.

Garrett Crochet is 18-5 with a 2.59 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 32 starts this season, including 13-2 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 18 road starts.  Crochet is 3-0 with a 3.29 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in four starts against the Yankees in 2025.

Max Fried is 19-5 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 32 starts this season, including 8-2 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 15 home starts.  Fried is 1-1 with a 1.96 ERA in three starts against the Red Sox in 2025, allowing just 4 earned runs in 18 1/3 innings.  Bet the UNDER in Game 1 Tuesday.

20* Padres/Cubs ABC No-Brainer on Chicago -111

This is a tough series for the Padres because the Cubs will throw two left-handers at them and the Padres really struggle against left-handed pitching.  They are hitting just .241 with a .307 OBP against southpaws this season while scoring just 3.8 runs per 9 innings.

Lefty Matthew Boyd goes for the Cubs in Game 1 today.  Boyd is 14-8 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 31 starts this season.  He has been dominant at home, going 12-1 with a 2.51 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 15 home starts.  Boyd is 1-1 with a 1.59 ERA in two starts against the Padres this season, allowing just 2 earned runs in 11 1/3 innings.

Nick Pivetta has big home/road splits this season.  He has obviously been much better at pitcher-friendly Petco Park in San Diego.  But Pivetta is 5-4 with a 3.55 ERA in 14 road starts this season.  He is 0-2 with a 7.88 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in two career starts at Wrigley Field, allowing 7 earned runs and 16 base runners in 8 innings.  Bet the Cubs Tuesday.

15* Tigers/Guardians ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland +152

The Cleveland Guardians went 19-4 in their final 23 games of the season to win the AL Central over the Detroit Tigers by one game.  The Tigers went 2-10 in their last 12 games overall and were fortunate to even make the postseason after the Houston Astros choked nearly as badly as them.

The Tigers have no business being this big of a favorite on the road against the Guardians in Game 1.  Tarik Skubal is a great starter, but he lost his last two starts against the Guardians both in September as -206 and -152 favorites.  The Guardians will battle him again, and I expect them to get the best of him.

Gavin Williams has been better than Skubal down the stretch and is massively undervalued.  Williams has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 23 of his last 26 starts, and 4 earned runs in the three starts he didn't.  He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 19 of those 26 starts.

Williams is 7-2 with a 3.00 ERA in 16 home starts, 5-1 with a 2.17 ERA in 13 day game starts, and 4-0 with a 1.74 ERA in his last five starts.  Williams owns the Tigers, going 3-2 with a 1.88 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in seven career starts against them.  He is 2-0 with a 1.06 ERA in three starts against the Tigers in 2025, allowing just 2 earned runs in 17 innings with 29 K's.  Bet the Guardians Tuesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati Reds +121

The Cincinnati Reds clinch the final wild card spot in the National League with a win today.  The Milwaukee Brewers have already secured the No. 1 seed throughout the postseason, meaning the World Series would go through Milwaukee.  They have nothing to play for and are playing like it now.

Brady Singer is 6-3 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in his last 10 starts.  Singer is 6-2 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 12 day game starts.  It's hard to envision the Milwaukee Brewers letting Freddy Peralta go very deep in this one.  This is more of just a tune up for him.  Bet the Reds Sunday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Guardians -135

The Cleveland Guardians are 18-4 in their last 22 games overall and are now tied with the Detroit Tigers for 1st place in the AL Central and own the tiebreaker.  They will be the AL Central champs with home-field advantage in the wild card round with a win.

The Rangers were right in the thick of the AL West race before getting swept by the Houston Astros September 15-17.  They have been lifeless since, going 2-10 in their last 12 games overall and have been eliminated from playoff contention.  They don't care nearly as much about this game as the Guardians and just want their season to be over.

Logan Allen has come up clutch in his last two starts firing 8 shutout innings in a 8-0 win over the Twins in his last start and allowing due one earned run in 5 innings against the Royals the start prior.  He will be facing a makeshift Texas lineup due to injuries and simply sitting guys because they don't care about these last few games.

I'll gladly fade Patrick Corbin, who is 4-5 with a 5.31 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 15 road starts this season.  Corbin is 1-3 with a 5.75 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in eight day game starts.  He is 1-4 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in his last 10 starts as well.  He has allowed 10 earned runs and 3 homers in 16 1/3 innings.  Bet the Guardians Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Tigers +115

The Boston Red Sox just clinched a spot in the playoffs with a win yesterday and celebrated.  They don't care about the results of these final two games as they are now locked into the No. 5 seed in the American League.  They should not be favored over the Detroit Tigers today as a result.

That's especially the case when you consider the Tigers have a lot to play for.  They are tied with the Cleveland Guardians for 1st place in the AL Central and lose out on the tiebreaker.  They also have to fend off the Astros, who are one game behind them for the final wild card spot.

Keider Montera has performed well as a starter this season going 4-3 with a 3.86 ERA in 11 starts.  He will likely be facing a Red Sox lineup full of backups as they will likely rest their guys over these final two games to get them refreshed for the postseason.  Bet the Tigers Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-105)

The Yankees are tied with the Blue Jays for 1st place in the AL East.  They lose out on the tiebreaker, so this is a must-win game.  They would get the No. 1 seed and a bye into the divisional round by winning the division, whereas they would be a wild card without winning it and have to play a 3-game series to keep their hopes alive.

I like that the Yankees have the 1st game on the board today and play a couple hours before the Blue Jays do so they can put the pressure on them with a win.  I expect them to win this game by multiple runs and continue their hot streak to close out the season.  The Yankees are 9-1 in their last 10 games overall with seven of their last eight wins coming by multiple runs.

Cam Schlittler is 3-3 with a 3.27 ERA in 13 starts this season for the Yankees.  He held the Orioles to one earned run in 5 1/3 innings of a 7-1 victory in his lone start against them on September 21st.

Tomoyuki Sugano is 10-9 with a 4.54 ERA in 29 starts this season.  Sugano is 0-4 with a 8.02 ERA in his last five starts, allowing 18 earned runs and 9 homers in 21 1/3 innings.  He has allowed 7 earned runs, 3 homers and 16 base runners in 6 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Yankees this season.  Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Saturday.

15* MLB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Guardians -146

The Cleveland Guardians are 17-3 in their last 20 games overall and are now tied with the Detroit Tigers for 1st place in the AL Central and own the tiebreaker.  They will keep their foot on the gas today hosting the lifeless Texas Rangers.

The Rangers were right in the thick of the AL West race before getting swept by the Houston Astros September 15-17.  They have been lifeless since, going 1-9 in their last 10 games overall and have been eliminated from playoff contention.  That includes five losses to the Marlins and Twins.  They won't show up for this series against the Guardians, either.  They are just ready for their season to be over.

Slade Cecconi has allowed just 2 earned runs in 20 2/3 innings in his last three starts for a 0.87 ERA during this stretch.  Cecconi allowed just 2 earned runs and 4 base runners in 6 innings in his last start against Texas on August 22nd.

Jack Leiter is 3-7 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 14 road starts this season.  Leiter is 1-1 with a 6.23 ERA in two career starts against Cleveland, allowing 6 earned runs in 8 2/3 innings.  Bet the Guardians Friday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Guardians -136

The Cleveland Guardians are 17-2 in their last 19 games overall and are now hold a one-game lead over the Detroit Tigers for 1st place in the AL Central and own the tiebreaker.  They have made me a ton of money during this run and I'm going to continue to ride them because they have the kind of momentum that teams dream about late in the season.

Conversely, the Detroit Tigers are in the midst of one of the biggest choke jobs in MLB history.  They had a 15.5-game lead on the Guardians at one point, including an 11-game lead just within the last couple weeks.  The Tigers have gone 1-11 in their last 12 games overall including six straight home losses to the Guardians and Braves prior to dropping the first two games of this series in Cleveland.

It will be another raucous atmosphere in Cleveland tonight as the Guardians go for the sweep and grab a stranglehold on the AL Central.  I like their chance with rookie Parker Messick, who has come up clutch here down the stretch.  He is 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA in six starts for the Guardians this season.

Messick will have the element of surprise as the Tigers have not faced him yet, which will work to his advantage.  He will be comfortable tonight, while Detroit rookie Troy Melton will not be making his 4th career start on the road in a hostile environment.  Melton has allowed 6 earned runs in 10 innings in his two road starts this season.  Bet the Guardians Thursday.

15* MLB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona Diamondbacks +140

Everyone left the Arizona Diamondbacks for dead when they traded Eugenio Suarez to the Mariners at the deadline.  The Diamondbacks have had other plans, fighting their asses off to pull within one game of the final wild card spot in the National League with 5 games remaining.  They have gone 7-2 in their last nine games overall and will continue to fight until the end.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are 1.5 games ahead of the Padres in the NL West but basically 2 games ahead because they own the tiebreaker.  I question their motivation the rest of the way, and they certainly won't be as motivated as the Diamondbacks tonight.

Ryne Nelson has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball this season.  Nelson is 7-3 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 22 starts and 10 relief appearances.  He has been at his best at home, going 5-1 with a 2.58 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 11 starts and 6 relief appearances in Arizona.  Nelson is 1-0 with a 2.12 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in three career starts against the Dodgers, allowing just 4 earned runs and 14 base runners in 17 innings.

Blake Snell has huge home/road splits this season.  He is 0-3 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in three road starts.  Snell is 1-2 with a 5.82 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in his last four starts against the Diamondbacks, allowing 11 earned runs in 17 innings.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Diamondbacks Wednesday.

20* AL GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Guardians -120

The Cleveland Guardians are 16-2 in their last 18 games overall and are now tied with the Detroit Tigers for 1st place in the AL Central and own the tiebreaker.  They have made me a ton of money during this run and I'm going to continue to ride them because they have the kind of momentum that teams dream about late in the season.

Conversely, the Detroit Tigers are in the midst of one of the biggest choke jobs in MLB history.  They had a 15.5-game lead on the Guardians at one point, including an 11-game lead just within the last couple weeks.  The Tigers have gone 1-10 in their last 11 games overall including six straight home losses to the Guardians and Braves prior to a Game 1 loss to the Guardians after blowing a 2-0 lead.

Tanner Bibee has come up clutch for the Guardians down the stretch allowing just 3 earned runs in 21 2/3 innings with 21 K's in his last three starts for a 1.25 ERA during this stretch.  He has owned the Tigers, allowing just one earned run in 13 innings with 16 K's for a 0.69 ERA in two starts against them in 2025.

Jack Flaherty is 8-14 with a 4.60 ERA in 30 starts this season, including 3-6 with a 5.20 ERA in 13 road starts.  Bibee is 4-5 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 13 home starts this season.  Bet the Guardians Wednesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Marlins +175

The Miami Marlins are playing their best baseball of the season going 11-1 in their last 12 games overall.  They are hitting the cover off the ball scoring at least 5 runs in 12 of their last 15 games, and 4 runs or more in 14 of them.  They will continue to play hard to close out the season, and that makes this a great value play on the Marlins as massive road underdogs to the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 2 of this series.

The Phillies have already clinched the NL East and basically clinched a Top 2 seed in the National League, which gives them a bye to avoid the wild card round.  They have been going through the motions and will continue to do so over the final week.  The Phillies are 1-4 in their last five games overall while scoring 3 runs or fewer after 9 innings in all four losses.

I actually give the Marlins the advantage on the mound tonight despite being such massive underdogs.  Ryan Weathers is 2-1 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in seven starts for the Marlins this season.

Jesus Luzardo is 14-7 with a 4.08 ERA in 31 starts this season, including 7-2 with a 4.50 ERA in 15 home starts.  Luzardo is 1-1 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in three starts against the Marlins this season.  Getting to face him for a 4th time this season is an advantage to Miami hitters.  Bet the Marlins Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Diamondbacks +145

Everyone left the Arizona Diamondbacks for dead when they traded Eugenio Suarez to the Mariners at the deadline.  The Diamondbacks have had other plans, fighting their asses off to pull within one game of the final wild card spot in the National League with 6 games remaining.  They have gone 6-2 in their last eight games overall and will continue to fight until the end.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are 2.5 games ahead of the Padres in the NL West but basically 3.5 games ahead because they own the tiebreaker.  I question their motivation the rest of the way, and they certainly won't be as motivated as the Diamondbacks tonight.

Shohei Ohtani has been solid but unspectacular.  He has a 3.29 ERA in 13 starts this season and hasn't once made it past the 5th inning as the Dodgers have been cautious with him.  They will make this a bullpen game once again.

Brandon Pfaadt took only 97 pitched for a complete game in a 5-1 win over the Giants in his last start allowing just two base runners and one unearned run.  Pfaadt has huge home/road splits this season at 9-3 with a 3.15 ERA in 16 home starts.  He is 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA in three career home starts against the Dodgers.  Bet the Diamondbacks Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Seattle Mariners -1.5 (-110)

The Seattle Mariners have come up massively clutch down the stretch to gain a 3-game lead on the Houston Astros in the AL West with 6 games to go.  They have gone 14-1 in their last 15 games overall.  They still have a lot to play for not only to try and clinch the division, but also to get a Top 2 seed in the American League to get a bye and avoid the wild card round.  They have a 2-game lead on the Tigers for the No. 2 seed.

They aren't about to let up against the Rockies, who are 6-23 in their last 29 games overall with 20 of those losses coming by 2 runs or more.  It looks as if McCade Brown will be getting the bulk of the innings for the Rockies today.  Brown is 0-4 with a 9.17 ERA and 2.09 WHIP in five starts, allowing 18 earned runs and 37 base runners in 17 2/3 innings.  Bet the Mariners on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Yankees -1.5 (-105)

The New York Yankees have a lot to play for.  They trail the Toronto Blue Jays by 2 games in the AL East with six games against two of the worst teams in baseball remaining in the White Sox and Orioles.  Look for them to handle their business with a win by multiple runs tonight over the lowly White Sox.

Luis Gil is 4-1 with a 3.33 ERA in nine starts this season, including 2-0 with a 2.11 ERA in four home starts.  He'll be facing a White Sox team that is 1-8 in their last nine games overall while scoring 3 runs or fewer in seven of the eight losses, and 2 runs or fewer six times.

The Yankees are 5-1 in their last six games overall while scoring 6 runs or more in all five victories, hitting the cover off the ball right now.  Shane Smith allowed 6 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings in his last start against the Orioles coming in.  

The Yankees are 8-2 in their last 10 meetings with the White Sox with all 8 wins coming by 2 runs or more.  Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Marlins +205

The Miami Marlins are playing their best baseball of the season going 10-1 in their last 11 games overall.  They are hitting the cover off the ball scoring at least 5 runs in 11 of their last 14 games, and 4 runs or more in 13 of them.  They will continue to play hard to close out the season, and that makes this a great value play on the Marlins as massive road underdogs to the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 1 of this series.

The Phillies have already clinched the NL East and basically clinched a Top 2 seed in the National League, which gives them a bye to avoid the wild card round.  They have been going through the motions and will continue to do so over the final week.  The Phillies are 1-3 in their last four games overall while scoring 3 runs or fewer in all three losses.

Edward Cabrera is 7-7 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 24 starts for the Marlins this season.  Cabrera has owned the Phillies, allowing just one earned run in 13 1/3 innings in his last two starts against them.  This guy is too good to be a +200 underdog today.

Cristopher Sanchez allowed 4 earned runs in 7 innings in his last start and has a 3.62 ERA in his last five starts.  The Phillies won't hesitate to pull their starting pitchers early here over the final week to save them for the postseason.  Bet the Marlins Tuesday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Guardians +144

The Cleveland Guardians are 15-2 in their last 17 games overall and are now tied for the final wild card spot and only one game behind the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central.  They have made me a ton of money during this run and I'm going to continue to ride them because they have the kind of momentum that teams dream about late in the season.

Conversely, the Detroit Tigers are in the midst of one of the biggest choke jobs in MLB history.  They had a 15.5-game lead on the Guardians at one points, including an 11-game lead just within the last couple weeks.  The Tigers have gone 1-9 in their last 10 games overall including six straight home losses to the Guardians and Braves coming in.

The Tigers are hoping Tarik Skubal will be the answer, but they've lost his last two starts as -191 favorites over the Marlins and -206 favorites over the Guardians.  Skubal is getting way too much respect tonight as a big road favorite.

Getting disrespected is Cleveland ace Gavin Williams, who is 11-5 with a 3.06 ERA in 30 starts this season.  Williams has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in nine of his last 11 starts while posting a 2.10 ERA in those 11 starts.  Williams owns the Tigers, going 2-2 with a 1.67 ERA in six career starts against them, allowing 6 earned runs in 32 1/3 innings.  Bet the Guardians Tuesday.

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Marlins +108

The Texas Rangers are 5 games out of the wild card with 7 games to go and trailing 3 teams.  Even if they go 7-0 they aren't going to make the playoffs.  They know their season is over, and they are playing like it going 0-6 in their last six games overall.  I don't expect them to show up today, either.

The Miami Marlins are playing their best baseball of the season going 9-1 in their last 10 games overall.  They are hitting the cover off the ball scoring at least 5 runs in 11 of their last 13 games.  They will continue to play hard to close out the season, and that makes this a great value play on the Marlins as road underdogs to the lifeless Rangers today.

Eury Perez is 12-11 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 37 career starts for the Marlins.  Merrill Kelly has allowed 9 earned runs and 20 base runners in 8 2/3 innings in his last two starts.  Kelly allowed 6 runs, 5 earned, in 5 innings of a 9-8 loss to the Marlins in his last start against them on June 27th.  Bet the Marlins Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Guardians -119

The Cleveland Guardians are 15-1 in their last 16 games overall and are now tied for the final wild card spot and only one game behind the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central.  They have made me a ton of money during this run and I'm going to continue to ride them because they have the kind of momentum that teams dream about late in the season.

The Minnesota Twins have been eliminated from playoff contention and they are just ready for this season to be over.  You can tell by their play here down the stretch, going 4-15 in their last 19 games overall.  They were shut out in both games of the double-header yesterday and have now scored a total of 2 runs in three games in this series.

Joey Cantillo has been untouchable in his last five starts with a 1.21 ERA while allowing just 4 earned runs in 29 2/3 innings.  He'll be opposed by Simeon Woods-Richardson, who has a 5.27 ERA in his last six starts while allowing 16 earned runs and 6 homers in 27 1/3 innings.  Bet the Guardians Sunday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Guardians +106 (Game 2)

The Cleveland Guardians are 13-1 in their last 14 games overall to pull within 1.5 games of the final wild card spot in the American League.  I know they are going to fight until the end, and I think we are getting great value on them as underdogs to the hapless Kansas City Royals today.

The Minnesota Twins have been eliminated from playoff contention and they are just ready for this season to be over.  You can tell by their play here down the stretch, going 4-13 in their last 17 games overall.  Which team is going to be more motivated to play a Saturday double-header? It's clearly the Guardians.

The Guardians have the 4th-best bullpen in baseball with a 3.47 ERA on the season.  The Twins have the 5th-worst bullpen in baseball with a 4.70 ERA on the season, and they have been even worse since the All-Star Break.  The Guardians are better equipped to handle a double-header with the better bullpen.

Logan Allen has owned the Twins, going 2-0 with a 2.61 ERA in four career starts against them.  Bailey Ober is 5-8 with a 5.12 ERA in 25 starts this season.  Ober allowed 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 innings in his last start against Cleveland on August 2nd.  Bet the Guardians in Game 2 Saturday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago White Sox +150

The San Diego Padres have nothing to play for down the stretch and are playing like it.  The Padres are pretty much locked in to the No. 5 seed in the National League.  They are 5 games clear in the wild card, and 4 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West.  They have lost 3 of their last 4 games coming in and are really struggling at the plate, scoring 3 runs or fewer in seven of their last 10 games overall.

Yu Darvish is working is way back from injury for the Padres and it has not gone well for him.  He has allowed 14 earned runs and 5 homers in 18 2/3 innings in his last four starts for a 6.75 ERA during this stretch.

Yoendrys Gomez has held his own as a starter for the White Sox this season, going 2-1 with a 4.01 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in seven starts with 36 K's in 33 2/3 innings.  I expect him to hold this struggling San Diego lineup in check tonight.  Bet the White Sox Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Marlins +141

The Texas Rangers are 5 games out of the wild card with 8 games to go and trailing 3 teams.  Even if they go 8-0 they aren't going to make the playoffs.  They know their season is over, and they are playing like it going 0-5 in their last five games overall.  I don't expect them to show up today, either.

The Miami Marlins are playing their best baseball of the season going 8-1 in their last nine games overall while scoring at least 5 runs in all eight wins.  They will continue to play hard to close out the season, and that makes this a great value play on the Marlins as big road underdogs to the lifeless Rangers tonight.

Adam Mazur is coming off one of his best starts of the the season pitching 6 innings without allowing an earned run to the Tigers.  Jack Leiter is 9-9 with a 3.82 ERA in 27 starts for the Rangers in his first full season as a starting and is starting to wear down here down the stretch.  Bet the Marlins Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland Guardians +109 (Game 1)

The Cleveland Guardians are 13-1 in their last 14 games overall to pull within 1.5 games of the final wild card spot in the American League.  I know they are going to fight until the end, and I think we are getting great value on them as underdogs to the hapless Kansas City Royals today.

The Minnesota Twins have been eliminated from playoff contention and they are just ready for this season to be over.  You can tell by their play here down the stretch, going 4-13 in their last 17 games overall.  Which team is going to be more motivated to play a Saturday double-header? It's clearly the Guardians.

Slade Ceconni has come up clutch here down the stretch allowing just 2 earned runs and 8 base runners in 13 2/3 innings in his last two starts.  This will be his first career start against the Twins, so he has the element of surprise working in his favor.  The Guardians have the 4th-best bullpen in baseball with a 3.47 ERA on the season.

Joe Ryan has been rocked for a 7.36 ERA in his last five starts while allowing 18 earned runs in 22 innings.  The Guardians are 5-0 in their last five games against Ryan.  The Twins have the 5th-worst bullpen in baseball with a 4.70 ERA on the season, and they have been even worse since the All-Star Break.  Bet the Guardians in Game 1 Saturday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona Diamondbacks -118

The Arizona Diamondbacks are just 2 games back of the New York Mets for the final wild card spot in the National League.  They have a lot to play for here down the stretch, while the Philadelphia Phillies have every reason to just go through the motions and not care.

The Phillies have already clinched the NL East, and they are 5.5 games ahead of the Dodgers for the 2nd seed in the National League with 9 games to go.  They are basically locked into the No. 2 seed, which is big because the top 2 seeds get a bye into the divisional round.  They really have nothing to play for.

It looks like it's going to be Taijuan Walker for the Phillies, but I'm OK with this bet if it's Walker Buehler because both are gas cans.  Walker has allowed 4 earned runs or more in four consecutive starts.  Buehler is 8-7 with a 5.29 ERA in 23 starts.

I'll gladly back Ryne Nelson, who has been dominant at home this season for the Diamondbacks.  Nelson is 5-1 with a 2.51 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 10 starts and six relief appearances at home this season.  Nelson has a 2.40 ERA in his last five starts while allowing a total of 8 earned runs in 30 innings.  He held the Phillies to 2 earned runs and 4 base runners with 9 K's in 7 1/3 innings in his last start against them.  Bet the Diamondbacks Thursday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Guardians +111

The Cleveland Guardians are 12-1 in their last 13 games overall to pull within 1.5 games of the final wild card spot in the American League.  I know they are going to fight until the end, and I think we are getting great value on them as underdogs to the hapless Kansas City Royals today.

The Minnesota Twins have been eliminated from playoff contention and they are just ready for this season to be over.  You can tell by their play here down the stretch, going 4-12 in their last 16 games overall.

Parker Messick has come up clutch for the Guardians down the stretch.  He is 3-0 with a 1.84 ERA in five starts this season.  This will be his first start against the Twins, and he will have the element of surprise working in his favor.

Pablo Lopez is working his way back from injury for the Twins and will be on a pitch count as they don't want to push him too hard here down the stretch.  Lopez is 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in three career home starts against Cleveland, allowing 12 earned runs in 17 1/3 innings.  Bet the Guardians Thursday.

20* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on Seattle Mariners -111

The Seattle Mariners have a lot to pay for right now.  They are 0.5 games behind he Houston Astros for 1st place in the AL West.  The Mariners have come up absolutely clutch here down the stretch going 10-1 in their last 11 games overall to put themselves in this position.  

The Royals are 7 games out of the wild card with 10 games left and dead in the water.  They are playing like it going 3-7 in their last 10 games overall.

Luis Castillo is 9-8 with a 3.76 ERA in 30 starts for the Mariners this season.  He'll be opposed by Stephen Kolek, who is 2-3 with a 6.55 ERA in six home starts this season, allowing 24 earned runs in 33 innings.  Kolek allowed 5 earned runs and 3 homers in 5 innings in his last start against Seattle this season.  Bet the Mariners Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Guardians +204

The Cleveland Guardians are 11-1 in their last 12 games overall to pull within 2.5 games of the final wild card spot in the American League.  I know they are going to fight until the end, and I think we are getting great value on them as big underdogs to the Detroit Tigers today.

The Tigers are basically stuck where they're at as they are going to win the AL Central, but they are 4 games behind the Blue Jays and 1.5 games ahead of the Astros for the 2nd seed in the American League.  Basically, they are playing with zero sense of urgency right now, which is evidenced by going 7-14 in their last 21 games overall.

Tarik Skubal got injured in his last start and it's a big reason it was one of his worst starts of the season, allowing 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 3 1/3 innings of a 8-2 loss to the lowly Marlins.  I don't expect him to be 100% today, and I think he is overvalued as a result.

Tanner Bibee is bringing his best stuff here down the stretch allowing just 2 earned runs and 8 base runners in 15 2/3 innings in his last two starts.  Bibee has owned the Tigers, allowing just 2 earned runs in 15 2/3 innings in his last three starts against them.  Bet the Guardians Thursday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Phillies/Dodgers on OVER 7.5

The Phillies are 8-0 OVER in their last eight games overall with 10 or more combined runs in all eight games.  This total of 7.5 is way too low for a game involving the Phillies right now.  They have scored at least 6 runs in seven of their last eight games overall.  The Dodgers are also raking scoring 5 runs or more in six of their last seven games overall.

Jesus Luzardo has a 4.03 ERA in 30 starts this season and is a weak link in this Philadelphia rotation.  Blake Snell gets too much respect from the books.  He is 1-3 with a 4.73 ERA in seven career starts against the Phillies.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Seattle Mariners +106

The Seattle Mariners have a lot to pay for right now.  They are 0.5 games ahead of the Houston Astros for 1st place in the AL West.  The Mariners have come up absolutely clutch here down the stretch going 10-0 in their last 10 games overall to put themselves in this position.

I expect them to make it 11 in a row today against a dead Royals team that is 7 games out of the wild card and just ready for the season to be over at this point.  The Royals are 2-7 in their last nine games overall.

The Mariners are 4-0 in Bryce Millers last four starts.  He has allowed 8 earned runs in 17 innings with 17 K's in his last three starts.  But this is more of a fade of Cole Ragans, who will be making his first start since June 5th and will be on a pitch count.  Ragans is 2-3 with a 5.18 ERA in 10 starts this season.  Bet the Mariners Wednesday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mariners/Royals OVER 8.5

Two gas can starting pitchers go tonight with temps in the 80's so the ball should be flying out again tonight.  The Mariners beat the Royals 12-5 last night and it should be another slug fest tonight.

Ragans is 2-3 with a 5.18 ERA in 10 starts this season. He will be making his first start since June 5th so he will be on a pitch count.  The Mariners are capable of covering this total on their own again.  They have scored 4 runs or more in nine of their 10 games during their current 10-game winning streak, including 10 runs or more four times.

Bryce Miller is 4-5 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 15 starts for the Mariners this season.  Miller has allowed 10 earned runs in 9 innings in two career starts against Kansas City.  The Royals have scored 21 runs in their last three games coming in.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Guardians +136

The Cleveland Guardians are 10-1 in their last 11 games overall to pull within 2.5 games of the final wild card spot in the American League.  I know they are going to fight until the end, and I think we are getting great value on them as underdogs to the Detroit Tigers tonight.

The Tigers are basically stuck where they're at as they are going to win the AL Central, but they are 4 games behind the Blue Jays and 2 games ahead of the Mariners for the 2nd seed in the American League.  Basically, they are playing with zero sense of urgency right now, going 7-13 in their last 20 games overall.

The Guardians have a big advantage on the mound tonight and should not be underdogs as a result.  Gavin Williams is 10-5 with a 3.16 ERA in 29 starts for the Guardians this season.  He is 5-1 with a 2.28 ERA in his last 10 starts.  Williams has owned the Tigers with a 1.98 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in five career starts against them.

Jack Flaherty is 8-13 with a 4.69 ERA in 29 starts this season.  Flaherty is 3-4 with a 4.76 ERA in his last 10 starts.  He and the Tigers are getting way too much respect tonight.  Bet the Guardians Wednesday.

20* Phillies/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 7.5

The Phillies are 7-0 OVER in their last seven games overall with 10 or more combined runs in all seven games.  This total of 7.5 is way too low for a game involving the Phillies right now.  They have scored at least 6 runs in six of their last seven games overall.  The Dodgers are also raking scoring 5 runs or more in five of their last six games overall.

Cristopher Sanchez allowed 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 2/3 innings in a 8-7 win over the Dodgers in his lone start against them this season.  Shohei Ohtani won't go deep in this game for the Dodgers, so this will be mostly a bullpen game for them.  Ohtani has allowed 10 earned runs in 17 innings in his last four starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Seattle Mariners -130

The Seattle Mariners have a lot to pay for right now.  They are 0.5 games ahead of the Houston Astros for 1st place in the AL West.  The Mariners have come up absolutely clutch here down the stretch going 9-0 in their last nine games overall to put themselves in this position.

I expect them to make it 10 in a row today against a dead Royals team that is 6.5 games out of the wild card and just ready for the season to be over at this point.  The Royals are 2-6 in their last eight games overall.

Logan Gilbert has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last four starts while lasting at least 6 innings in three of them.  Gilbert has allowed just 5 earned runs in 18 1/3 innings in his last three starts against the Royals.  Michael Wacha allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings of a 6-2 loss to the Mariners in his lone start against them this season.  Bet the Mariners Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Guardians +126

The Cleveland Guardians are 9-1 in their last 10 games overall to pull within 3 games of the final wild card spot in the American League.  I know they are going to fight until the end, and I think we are getting great value on them as underdogs to the Detroit Tigers tonight.

The Tigers are basically stuck where they're at as they are going to win the AL Central, but they are 3 games behind the Blue Jays and 3 games ahead of the Mariners for the 2nd seed in the American League.  Basically, they are playing with zero sense of urgency right now, going 7-12 in their last 19 games overall.

Joey Cantillo has been dominant in his last four starts for the Guardians.  He has allowed just 3 earned runs in 24 2/3 innings for a 1.09 ERA in those four starts.  This will be his first career start against the Tigers, so he will have the element of surprise working in his favor.

Casey Mize has been struggling for a couple months now for the Tigers.  Mize has posted a 6.07 ERA in his last 10 starts while allowing 31 earned runs in 46 innings.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Guardians Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Yankees -1.5 (-117)

The Minnesota Twins have been officially eliminated from playoff contention and are just ready for their season to be over.  They are playing like it as well going 3-10 in their last 13 games overall.  The New York Yankees have a lot more to play for not only trying to clinch a playoff spot, but also still alive in the AL East sitting 4 games behind the Blue Jays for 1st place with a great chance to make up some ground this series.

The Yankees have a big advantage on the mound that should have them winning this game by multiple runs tonight.  Carlos Rodon is 16-8 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 30 starts for the Yankees this season.  Rodon has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in seven consecutive starts.  He owns the Twins, going 3-0 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.63 WHIP in his last three starts against them, allowing 4 earned runs and 12 base runners in 19 innings.

Simeon Woods-Richardson is 6-4 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 19 starts this season.  He is 3-3 with a 5.60 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 11 night starts this season.  He has a 6.75 ERA in his last five starts while allowing 3 earned runs or more in four of them and 6 homers in 21 1/3 innings.  Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Monday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Blue Jays/Rays OVER 8.5

Triple-A Park George M. Steinbrenner Field has proven to be hitter-friendly this season largely due to it being outdoors in hot weather.  It will be hot again today with temps in the 80's, and the ball should be flying out.

The Blue Jays rank 4th in baseball scoring 5.03 runs per game.  The Rays rank 13th scoring 4.48 runs per game, including 4.64 runs per game at home.  This total of 8.5 is too short with these two offenses up against these two starting pitchers.

Trey Yesavage will be making his MLB debut for the Blue Jays.  He has good K numbers in the minors, but control has been an issue for him, and the Rays are very patient at the plate.  I don't expect his first career start to go very well.

The Blue Jays are capable of covering this total on their own against Joe Boyle, who is 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in six starts and four relief appearances this season.  Boyle is 0-3 with a 9.14 ERA and 1.89 WHIP at night, allowing 22 earned runs and 6 homers in 21 2/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds -106

The Cincinnati Reds trail the New York Mets by just 1.5 games for the final wild card spot in the National League.  They will be highly motivated for that reason, plus to avoid the sweep after dropping the first two games of this series to the A's.

Nick Lodolo is 8-7 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 25 starts this season, including 5-5 with a 2.36 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 14 road starts.  Luis Morales is coming off his worst start of the season for the A's, allowing 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 2/3 innings of a 7-0 home loss to the Red Sox on September 8th.  Bet the Reds Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Rays/Cubs OVER 7

The Cubs are capable of covering this total on their own today against Adrian Houser, who is 3-2 with a 4.93 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in his last nine starts.  Houser has allowed 12 earned runs in 22 2/3 innings in his last four starts coming in.  He has allowed 7 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Chicago.

Shota Imanaga has allowed at least 3 earned runs in three consecutive starts and six of his last nine starts overall.  Imanaga has allowed at least one homer in six consecutive starts and a total of 13 homers in his last nine starts.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona Diamondbacks +105

The Arizona Diamondbacks are just 2 games behind the Mets for the final wild card spot in the National League.  They continue to battle, while the Minnesota Twins are just ready for their season to be over.  The Twins are 3-9 in their last 12 games overall.  Wrong team favored here.

Nabil Crismatt is 2-0 with a 3.24 ERA in four starts and one relief appearance this season, allowing just 9 earned runs in 25 innings.  Bailey Ober is 5-7 with a 5.08 ERA in 24 starts for the Twins this season, including 2-3 with a 5.71 ERA in 13 day game starts.  Bet the Diamondbacks Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Cincinnati Reds -113

The Cincinnati Reds are just 1.5 games back of the New York Mets for the final wild card spot in the National League.  They have a lot to play for right now, and I expect ace Hunter Greene to deliver the good again tonight.

Greene is 6-4 with a 2.59 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 16 starts this season with 113 K's in 90 1/3 innings.  He'll be opposed by Luis Severino, who is 1-9 with a 6.34 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 13 home starts for the A's this season.  Cincinnati should be a bigger favorite with this huge advantage on the mound tonight.  Bet the Reds Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Diamondbacks/Twins OVER 8

The Minnesota Twins have been a dead nuts OVER team here down the stretch going 18-6-1 OVER in their last 25 games overall.  They have gone for 9 or more combined runs in 19 of those 25 games.  They have terrible pitching, but their lineup continues to produce.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 8 or more combined runs in all six, including 17 combined runs in Game 1 yesterday.

Arizona ranks 5th in baseball scoring 4.95 runs per game.  But the Diamondbacks rank 23rd allowing 4.82 runs per game with one of the worst staffs in baseball like the Twins, who are 24th at 4.83 runs per game.  The Diamondbacks and their opponents have combined for at least 8 runs in 9 of their last 11 games overall.

Ryne Nelson is 0-2 with a 16.19 ERA and 2.70 WHIP in two career starts against the Twins, allowing 12 earned runs and 18 base runners in 6 2/3 innings.  Joe Ryan allowed 4 earned runs in 6 innings in his lone career start against the Diamondbacks.  Ryan has allowed 16 earned runs in 18 innings in his last four starts overall for a 8.00 ERA.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Tigers/Marlins OVER 8.5

The Miami Marlins are now 92-58-7 OVER in all home games over the last two seasons.  The OVER is 5-1 in Marlins last six home games with 9 or more combined runs in five of those six.  These two gas can starting pitchers figure to get rocked by both offenses today.

The Tigers rank 8th in baseball scoring 4.89 runs per game.  They should crush Janson Junk, who has a 5.32 ERA in 44 innings at home this season.  Junk has allowed 3 earned runs or more in eight consecutive starts and a total of 31 earned runs in 42 innings in those eight starts for a 6.64 ERA during this stretch.

Charlie Morton is 9-10 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 24 starts this season and on his last leg.  Morton has allowed 14 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings in his last three starts coming in.  He has allowed 10 earned runs in 17 2/3 innings in his last three starts against Miami.  He is 0-2 with an 8.81 ERA in his last three starts in Miami, allowing 16 earned runs in 16 1/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rangers/Mets OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Rangers and Mets tonight.  Temps will be in the 70's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left at Citi Field.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 11 or more combined runs in four of them.

The Mets should hang a big number on Patrick Corbin, who is 7-9 with a 4.36 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 27 starts this season.  Corbin has been at his worst on the road, going 4-5 with a 5.63 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 14 starts away from home.  He hates facing the Mets, allowing 18 earned runs and 7 homers in 14 1/3 innings in his last three starts against them for a 11.30 ERA.

Brandon Sproat will be making his 2nd career start for the Mets.  Sproat allowed 3 earned runs in 6 innings to the Reds in his first start on September 7th.  Now he must face a red hot Rangers lineup that has scored at least 4 runs in all five games during their current 5-game winning streak.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Orioles/Blue Jays OVER 8.5

Both lineups should have their way with these two gas can starting pitchers today as we easily cash this OVER 8.5 ticket.  The OVER is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings with 9 or more combined runs in 10 of those 13 meetings.

Tomoyuki Sugano is 10-8 with a 4.51 ERA in 27 starts this season, including 3-4 with a 4.75 ERA in 13 road starts.  Sugano has allowed a whopping 14 earned runs and 6 homers in 12 1/3 innings in his last three starts coming in.  He has allowed 5 earned runs and 16 base runners in 8 2/3 innings in two starts against the Blue Jays this season.

Max Scherzer is 5-3 with a 4.36 ERA in 14 starts this season, including 3-0 with a 4.50 ERA in eight home starts.  Scherzer is 0-2 with a 6.97 ERA in his last three starts against the Orioles, allowing 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 10 1/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Rays/Cubs Interleague No-Brainer on OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the Rays and Cubs today.  Temps will be in the 70's with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field.  The ball should be flying out, and there should be plenty of runs as a result.

The Rays have been cautious with Drew Rasmussen here down the stretch limiting him to 85 pitches or fewer in three consecutive starts.  They aren't going to let him go deep in this one, either, and that will expose this Tampa Bay bullpen.

Collin Rea has allowed 9 earned runs and 18 base runners in 8 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Giants and Braves.  Rea is 3-3 with a 4.74 ERA in his last 10 starts for the Cubs.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Angels/Mariners OVER 7.5

This total of 7.5 between the Angels and Mariners tonight is too low given how much both starting pitchers are struggling coming into this one.  These teams combined for 13 runs in Game 1 of this series Thursday, and it should be more of the same in Game 2 tonight.

Yusei Kikuchi has allowed a whopping 18 earned runs and 4 homers in 11 2/3 innings in his last three starts for a 13.88 ERA during this stretch.  Kikuchi allowed 3 earned runs, 2 homers and 9 base runners in 4 2/3 innings in his lone start against the Mariners this season.  He is 1-8 with a 5.45 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in 15 road starts this season with massive home/road splits.

Luis Castillo is 1-2 with a 7.83 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in his last five starts.  He has allowed 20 earned runs and 7 homers in 23 innings in those five starts.  Castillo allowed 6 runs, 4 earned, and 3 homers in 5 innings in his lone start against the Angels this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE WEEK on Cincinnati Reds +114

With the Mets going 0-6 in their last six games overall, they have opened the door for both the Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks to catch them for the final wild card spot in the National League.  Both trail the Mets by just 1.5 games.  The Reds are max motivated right now to catch them, and they should not be underdogs to the Sacramento A's, who have been eliminated from postseason contention.

Brady Singer is 13-9 with a 3.92 ERA in 28 starts for the Reds this season.  But Singer has been absolutely dominant here down the stretch, allowing 3 earned runs or fewer in 14 of his last 17 starts, and 4 earned runs in two of the starts he didn't.  He has allowed a total of 10 earned runs in 47 innings in his last eight starts for a 1.91 ERA during this stretch.  Singer held the A's to one earned run in 6 innings with 9 K's in his last start against them.

Sacramento projected starter J.T. Ginn is 3-6 with a 4.95 ERA in 13 starts and seven relief appearances this season.  Ginn is 1-4 with a 6.64 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in seven starts and four relief appearances at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park.  Ginn has allowed 29 earned runs and 12 homers in 39 1/3 innings at home this season.  Bet the Reds Friday.

15* MLB Friday Night BLOWOUT on San Diego Padres -1.5 (-125)

The Colorado Rockies are 3-17 in their last 20 games overall with 15 losses by multiple runs.  They are clearly just ready for this dreadful season to be over sitting at 40-107 on the season.  They didn't show up against the Dodgers last series, and they won't show up against the Padres in this series, either.

JP Sears has been revived now that he is pitching for a contender in the Padres after being traded from the A's.  He has a 3.86 ERA in his last three starts and I trust him to shut down the Rockies, who have scored a total of 4 runs in their last five games overall for an average of 0.8 runs per game.

Tanner Gordon is 5-6 with a 6.60 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in 12 starts for the Rockies this season, including 1-3 with a 9.33 ERA and 2.02 WHIP in four road starts while allowing 19 earned runs in 18 1/3 innings away from home.  Gordon just faced the Padres in his last start, allowing 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 3 2/3 innings of an 8-1 defeat.  The Padres will rock him again here getting to face him for the 2nd time in a week.  Bet the Padres on the Run Line Friday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas Rangers -102

The Texas Rangers are the hottest team in baseball. They have gone 14-4 in their last 18 games overall to pull within 2 games of both the Astros and Mariners for 1st place in the AL West and also the final wild card spot.

The New York Mets are one of the coldest teams in baseball.  They are 0-6 in their last six games overall and were just swept in 4 games by the Phillies while getting outscored 27-10 in the four games.  The Rangers have the rest advantage after having yesterday off while the Mets will be playing for an 8th consecutive day.

The Rangers also have a big advantage on the mound tonight with Jacob DeGrom, who is 11-7 with a 2.78 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 27 starts this season.  DeGrom will have extra motivation tonight as this is his first start against his former team as well.

Jonah Tong is 1-1 with a 4.09 ERA in two starts for the Mets this season.  He has allowed 8 runs, 5 earned, and 3 homers in 11 innings this season.  Bet the Rangers Friday.

15* MLB Thursday Night BLOWOUT on San Diego Padres -1.5 (-115)

The Colorado Rockies are 3-16 in their last 19 games overall with 14 losses by multiple runs.  They are clearly just ready for this dreadful season to be over sitting at 40-106 on the season.  They didn't show up against the Dodgers last series, and they won't show up against the Padres in this series, either.

McCade Brown is 0-3 with a 12.54 ERA and 2.36 WHIP in three starts this season, allowing 13 earned runs and 22 base runners in 9 1/3 innings.  He faced the Padres in his last start, allowing 6 earned runs in 1 2/3 innings on September 6th, and I don't foresee it going much better for him today.

Randy Vasquez has posted a 3.91 ERA in 23 starts for the Padres this season.  Vasquez has held the Rockies to just 5 earned runs in 17 innings in his last three starts against them despite two of those starts coming at hitter-friendly Coors Field.  Bet the Padres on the Run Line Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Mets/Phillies OVER 8

The Mets and Phillies combined for 14 runs yesterday and 12 runs Tuesday.  They should sail OVER this 8-run total again today against these two starting pitchers.

David Peterson has been rocked for a 7.77 ERA in his last five starts while allowing 21 earned runs in 24 1/3 innings.  Peterson was rocked for 5 earned runs in 4 innings in his last start against the Phillies on June 22nd, and he is now 1-4 with a 5.67 ERA in 11 career starts against them.  He is 0-3 with a 6.13 ERA in six career road starts at Philadelphia as well.

Jesus Luzardo has posted a 4.50 ERA in 14 home starts for the Phillies this season and is one of the more overrated starters in baseball.  Luzardo allowed 4 earned runs in 4 innings of a 6-5 loss to the Mets in his last start against them on August 26th.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Tigers/Yankees OVER 8.5

The Yankees rank 1st in baseball scoring 5.19 runs per game while the Tigers rank 7th scoring 4.92 runs per game.  This total of 8.5 is too short for these two offenses tonight up against these two starting pitchers and bullpens tonight.

The Tigers will make this a bullpen game starting with Tyler Holton, who is 0-1 with a 6.14 ERA in five starts this season lasting a total of 7 1/3 innings.  So their bullpen is going to get a lot of use, and the Yankees should bust out offensively in this one.

The Tigers have scored 12 and 11 runs on their own in the first two games of this series.  They should stay hot against Cam Schlittler, who is 2-2 with a 4.28 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in six home starts this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NL East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nationals/Marlins OVER 8

The Nationals and Marlins combined for 22 runs in Game 1, 12 runs in Game 2 and 11 runs in Game 3.  The Marlins are 91-57-7 OVER in all home games over the last two seasons.  The Nationals have the worst bullpen in baseball with a 5.41 ERA while the Marlins have the 9th-worst with a 4.42 ERA.  Both starting pitchers figure to get rocked tonight with both bullpens getting a lot of use again.

MacKenzie Gore has allowed a whopping 31 earned runs in 37 innings in his last eight starts for a 7.54 ERA during this stretch.  Gore has allowed 6 earned runs in 12 innings in two starts against the Marlins in 2025.

Ryan Weathers will be making his first start since June 7th and will be on a pitch count.  He wasn't going deep into games before injury, and he won't be tonight either as the Marlins will have to use their bullpen again.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Tigers/Yankees OVER 8

The Yankees rank 1st in baseball scoring 5.22 runs per game while the Tigers rank 8th scoring 4.88 runs per game.  This total of 8 is too short for these two offenses tonight up against these two starting pitchers.

The Yankees are capable of covering this total on their own against Jack Flaherty, who is 7-13 with a 4.85 ERA in 28 starts this season, including 2-6 with a 5.64 ERA in 12 road starts.  Flaherty has been rocked for 13 earned runs in 15 innings in his last three starts.  He allowed 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 1 1/3 innings in his lone career start at Yankee Stadium.

Carlos Rodon just does not enjoy facing the Tigers.  He is 0-3 with an 11.08 ERA in his last three starts against them, allowing 16 earned runs in 13 innings.  He is 2-2 with a 8.37 ERA in five career home starts against Detroit, allowing 22 earned runs and 6 homers in 23 2/3 innings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on New York Mets +153

The New York Mets will be highly motivated for a victory after dropping the first two games of this series to the Philadelphia Phillies.  The Phillies are without Trae Turner, Alec Bohm and Brandon Marsh and their offense is very limited without these three.

Clay Holmes is 11-7 with a 3.61 ERA in 28 starts for the Mets this season, including 6-5 with a 3.39 ERA in 14 road starts.  This will be his first career start against the Phillies which gives him the advantage with the element of surprise.

Cristopher Sanchez is having a solid season, but he has not fared well against the Mets.  Sanchez is 0-2 with a 8.59 ERA and 2.32 WHIP in two starts against New York this season, allowing 7 earned runs and 17 base runners in 7 1/3 innings.  Bet the Mets Wednesday.

20* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nationals/Marlins OVER 8.5

The Nationals and Marlins combined for 22 runs in Game 1 and 12 runs in Game 2.  The Marlins are 90-57-7 OVER in all home games over the last two seasons.  The Nationals have the worst bullpen in baseball with a 5.37 ERA while the Marlins have the 8th-worst with a 4.45 ERA.  Both starting pitchers figure to get rocked tonight with both bullpens getting a lot of use again.

Jake Irvin is 8-11 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 29 starts this season, including 6-7 with a 6.19 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 16 road starts.  Irvin is 0-4 with a 10.80 ERA in his last five starts, allowing 26 earned runs and 7 homers in 21 2/3 innings.

Eury Perez is 6-5 with a 4.66 ERA in 16 starts this season, including 2-3 with a 6.89 ERA in his last eight starts while allowing 25 earned runs and 9 homers in 32 2/3 innings.  He allowed 7 earned runs and 2 homers in 2 innings of a 10-5 loss to the Nationals in his last start on September 3rd, and I don't suspect it will go well for him in the rematch a week later.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Twins/Angels OVER 8.5

The Twins are a dead nuts OVER team going 17-5-1 OVER in their last 23 games overall.  They have combined for 9 runs or more with their opponents in 18 of those 23 games.  They have the 6th-worst bullpen in baseball with a 4.67 ERA on the season and that number has skyrocketed here down the stretch as their bullpen has been blown up time and time again.

The Angels are also a dead nuts OVER team due to having the 3rd-worst bullpen in baseball with a 4.89 ERA.  They are 79-63-1 OVER in all games this season and allow 5.12 runs per game.  Both starters and bullpens figure to get rocked again in Game 3 today after combining for 15 runs in Game 1 and 14 runs in Game 2.

Taj Bradley is 6-7 with a 4.92 ERA in 24 starts this season.  Bradley is 0-1 with an 8.64 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in his last four starts, allowing 16 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings.

Jose Soriano is coming off one of his worst starts of the season allowing 8 earned runs in 2 1/3 innings of a 10-4 home loss to the A's.  Soriano has allowed 7 earned runs in 6 2/3 innings in his last two starts against Minnesota.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Brewers/Rangers MLB Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 7.5

Runs will be very hard to come by this afternoon in this tremendous pitcher's duel between Freddy Peralta and Merrill Kelly.

Peralta is 16-5 with a 2.50 ERA in 29 starts this season.  He has been untouchable in his last five starts, going 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA while tossing 28 shutout innings allowing just 13 base runners in 35 K's.  Peralta has held the Rangers to 3 earned runs in 10 2/3 innings in his last two starts against them.

Merrill Kelly is 11-7 with a 3.16 ERA in 29 starts this season.  Kelly is 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA in his last six starts for the Rangers, allowing just 9 earned runs in 39 innings.  He has allowed just one earned run in 12 innings in his last two starts against the Brewers.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-135)

The Los Angeles Dodgers just got Max Muncy back in the lineup yesterday and they should get Will Smith back tonight.  They should be close to full strength now for this stretch run where they'll be motivated to win the NL West as they lead the Padres by just one games.

The Colorado Rockies remain a dumpster fire and the worst team in baseball.  The Rockies are 3-14 in their last 17 games overall with 12 losses by multiple runs.  They are now 40-104 on the season.

The Dodgers have a big advantage on the mound tonight behind Emmet Sheehan, who is 5-3 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in nine starts and two relief appearances.  Sheehan is 2-1 with a 2.63 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in five home starts.  The Dodgers are 3-0 in Sheehan's three career starts against the Rockies winning by 6, 7 and 11 runs.

German Marquez is 3-12 with a 6.19 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in 22 starts for the Rockies this season.  Marquez has allowed 12 earned runs in 9 1/3 innings in his last two starts.  Marquez has allowed 17 runs, 11 earned, and 6 homers in 10 innings his last three starts against the Dodgers.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Twins/Angels OVER 9

The Twins are a dead nuts OVER team going 16-5-1 OVER in their last 22 games overall.  They have combined for 9 runs or more with their opponents in 17 of those 22 games.  They have the 6th-worst bullpen in baseball with a 4.59 ERA on the season and that number has skyrocketed here down the stretch as their bullpen has been blown up time and time again.

The Angels are also a dead nuts OVER team due to having the 3rd-worst bullpen in baseball with a 4.88 ERA.  They are 78-63-1 OVER in all games this season and allow 5.14 runs per game.  These are two of the worst starters in baseball going tonight backed by two of the worst bullpens in baseball, so the offenses should have their way.

Zebby Matthews is 5-8 with a 5.45 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 22 career starts, including 4-4 with a 4.73 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 13 starts in 2025.  Kyle Hendricks is 6-9 with a 4.81 ERA in 27 starts for the Angels this season after going 4-12 with a 5.92 ERA with the Cubs last season.  Hendricks allowed 7 earned runs in 3 innings of a 11-4 loss to the Twins in his lone start against them this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas Rangers -105

The Texas Rangers are playing their best baseball of the season going 12-4 in their last 16 games overall to pull within 1.5 games of the Seattle Mariners for the final wild card spot.  They are also just 3.5 games behind the Astros for the AL West lead.  They have a lot to play for right now and are playing with a sense of urgency.

The Brewers will be going through the motions here down the stretch with a 7.5-game lead on the Cubs for NL Central title.  They are also 4.5 games ahead of the Phillies for the best record in the National League.  I question their motivation the rest of the way.

Jack Leiter is 5-2 with a 2.91 ERA in his last 10 starts.  He has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 13 consecutive starts, including 2 earned runs or fewer in 10 of his last 12 starts.  Leiter is 6-2 with a 3.09 ERA in 12 home starts this season as well.

Rookie Chad Patrick is 3-8 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 20 starts for the Brewers this season.  He will be on a pitch count as the Brewers don't want to tax him too much here down the stretch.  Bet the Rangers Tuesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Sacramento A's +153

The A's are 24-16 in their last 40 games overall with mostly wins as underdogs during this stretch.  They continue to show up day in and day out.  The A's are showing great value tonight with Luis Morales on the mound.

Morales is 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in five starts and one relief appearance this season for the A's.  He has allowed just 5 earned runs and 2 homers in 28 1/3 innings with 30 K's.

Garrett Crochet allowed 7 earned runs and 4 homers to the Guardians in his last start, and now now allowed at least one homer in five consecutive starts with a 4.80 ERA in his last five starts.  The A's have scored a total of 30 runs in their last three games and will get to Crochet tonight.  Bet the A's Monday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets -119

The Mets have a lot more to play for than the Phillies right now.  The Mets are clinging on to the final wild card spot in the National League, while the Phillies are 7 games up in the NL East with a big margin for error here down the stretch.

The Phillies suffered a big blow yesterday when their best player in Trae Turner left with a hamstring injury in a loss to the Marlins.  He has been one of the hottest players in baseball since the All-Star Break.  It's a big blow to their lineup.

Rookie Nolan McLean has been dynamite for the Mets, going 4-0 with a 1.37 ERA and 0.76 WHIP in four starts while allowing just 4 earned runs and 21 base runners in 26 1/3 innings with 28 K's.  One of those starts came in a 6-0 win over the Phillies on August 27th when McLean fired 8 shutout innings.

Aaron Nola has been an absolute gas can for the Phillies this season.  He is 3-8 with a 6.78 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 13 starts.  Nola has a 10.57 ERA in his last five starts while allowing a whopping 27 earned runs and 7 homers in 23 innings.  He has allowed 14 earned runs and 6 homers in 15 2/3 innings in his last three starts against New York.  Bet the Mets Monday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -101

The Boston Red Sox will be highly motivated for a win today to avoid the sweep after dropping the first two games of this series to the Arizona Diamondbacks.  I their chances of getting a win today to avoid the sweep due to their big advantage on the mound.

Ace Bryan Bello is 11-6 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 24 starts this season, including 3-3 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in nine road starts.  Bello has allowed a total of 4 earned runs in 18 2/3 innings in his last three starts.

Ryne Nelson has seen big-time regression with a 4.85 ERA in his last five starts while allowing 16 earned runs in 29 2/3 innings.  Look for the Red Sox to pound him today and provide Bello plenty of run support to get a win.  Bet the Red Sox Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Blue Jays/Yankees OVER 8

The Yankees rank 1st in baseball scoring 5.25 runs per game while the Blue Jays rank 4th scoring 5.01 runs per game.  This total of 8 is too low for these two offenses playing at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium with light winds blowing out to center.

Max Scherzer has been rocked for 8 earned runs and 4 homers in 10 innings in his last two starts.  Scherzer allowed 4 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 innings in his last start against the Yankees on July 22nd.  He has now allowed 12 earned runs and 5 homers in 13 1/3 innings in his last three starts against them.

Max Fried has been rocked for 10 runs, 8 earned, and 2 homers in 11 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Blue Jays this season.  Both starts have been since July, so they are very familiar with him.  That familiarity favors the hitters.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on San Francisco Giants -121

The San Francisco Giants are playing their best baseball of the season right now.  They have gone 11-1 in their last 12 games overall to pull within 4 games of the Mets and Padres for the final two wild card spots in the National League.  They have huge momentum right now and really feel like they have a shot.

The St. Louis Cardinals are 6.5 back and starting to realize their season is pretty much over.  They played like it yesterday in a 8-2 loss to the Giants, and it won't get any easier for them today with gas can Andre Pallante on the mound.

Pallante is 6-13 with a 5.38 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 27 starts this season, including 4-6 with a 5.91 ERA in 13 home starts.  Pallante has been dreadful in his last five starts, going 0-5 with a 9.82 ERA and 2.14 WHIP while allowing 24 earned runs and 47 base runners in 22 innings.  He has allowed 8 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings in two career starts against the Giants for a 6.97 ERA.

Justin Verlander continues to pitch at a high level despite his age.  He has posted a 2.98 ERA in his last eight starts.  He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in six of his last eight starts.  Bet the Giants Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago White Sox +265

The Chicago White Sox are coming off six consecutive wins as +154, +156, +123, +146, +126 and +168 underdogs.  They continue to show up despite their standing, and they are showing great value here as big underdogs again to a Detroit Tigers team that is just going through the motions right now.

Knowing they already have the AL Central locked up, the Tigers have gone 3-8 in their last 11 games overall with six losses as favorites.  They definitely should not be this big of a favorite against the White Sox today even with ace Tarik Skubal on the mound.

The lack of respect for Chicago's Martin Perez is mind blowing.  Perez has posted a 2.16 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in seven starts and one relief appearance this season, allowing just 10 earned runs and 2 homers in 41 2/3 innings.  He has allowed 2 earned runs and 8 base runners in 13 innings in his last two starts.  I'll gladly take a shot on him at this price today.  Bet the White Sox Saturday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-125)

The Cubs have a lot more to play for than the Nationals and a big advantage on the mound today.  There will be 15-20 MPH sustained winds blowing out to right-center so runs will be plentiful, which is why I'll back the Cubs to win this game by multiple runs on the Run Line again today.

Matthew Boyd is 12-7 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 27 starts this season.  Boyd allowed just 2 earned runs in 7 1/3 innings in his lone start against Washington this season back on June 4th.

He'll be opposed by Brad Lord, who is 4-8 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 14 starts and 29 relief appearances this season.  Lord has really struggled of late, allowing 17 earned runs and 4 homers in 12 2/3 innings in his last three starts for a 12.08 ERA.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Saturday.

20* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Nationals/Cubs OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Nationals and Cubs today.  There will be steady 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to right-center at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field.  It was a similar forecast yesterday when the Cubs beat the Nationals 11-5.

I expect the Cubs to cover this total on their own against Brad Lord, who is 4-8 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 14 starts and 29 relief appearances this season.  Lord has really struggled of late, allowing 17 earned runs and 4 homers in 12 2/3 innings in his last three starts for a 12.08 ERA.

While Matthew Boyd is the far superior starter here, he has regressed of late and will give up enough runs to the Nationals if need be.  Boyd has allowed 13 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings in his last three starts for a 7.21 ERA during this stretch.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Mets/Reds OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Mets and Reds tonight.  Temps will be in the 80's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to left-center at game time at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.

The Mets come in red hot at the plate scoring a total of 52 runs in their last six games for an average of 8.7 runs per game.  The Reds are also hot scoring 30 runs in their last four games for an average of 7.5 runs per game.  

The Reds are 4-0 OVER in their last four home games going for 9 or more combined runs in all four games, including 21 and 22 combined runs in their last two against the Blue Jays.  The Mets and their opponents have combined for at least 9 runs in 13 of their last 17 games overall.

David Peterson was rocked for 8 earned runs in 2 innings in a 11-8 loss to the Marlins in his last start.  Andrew Abbott has allowed 8 earned runs in 9 innings in his last two starts for the Reds.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago White Sox +172

The Chicago White Sox are coming off five consecutive wins as +154, +156, +123, +146 and +126 underdogs.  They continue to show up despite their standing, and they are showing great value here as big underdogs again to a Detroit Tigers team that is just going through the motions right now.

Knowing they already have the AL Central locked up, the Tigers have gone 3-7 in their last 10 games overall with five losses as favorites.  They definitely should not be this big of a favorite with gas can Jack Flaherty on the mound.

Flaherty is 7-13 with a 4.74 ERA in 27 starts this season.  He is 1-3 with a 6.41 ERA in his last five starts, allowing 19 earned runs in 26 2/3 innings.  Flaherty allowed 5 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of a 9-6 loss to the White Sox on August 12th as a -161 favorite in his last start against them.

Shane Smith is having a great season for the White Sox going 4-7 with a 3.81 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 24 starts this season.  Smith is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in his last five starts, allowing just 8 earned runs and 26 base runners in 29 1/3 innings.  Better yet, Smith has fired 10 1/3 shutout innings in two starts against the Tigers this season.  Bet the White Sox Friday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on White Sox/Tigers OVER 8.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8.5 ticket between the White Sox and Tigers tonight.  There are expected to be steady 15-20 MPH winds blowing out to left-center in Detroit tonight.  Both offenses are read hot coming into this one as well.

The Tigers have scored at least 5 runs in four consecutive games and are scoring 4.82 runs per game on the season. The White Sox have scored a total of 33 runs in their last four games for an average of 8.3 runs per game.

Jack Flaherty is 7-13 with a 4.74 ERA in 27 starts this season.  He is 1-3 with a 6.41 ERA in his last five starts, allowing 19 earned runs in 26 2/3 innings.  Flaherty allowed 5 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of a 9-6 loss to the White Sox on August 12th as a -161 favorite in his last start against them.

Shane Smith is 2-4 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 12 road starts this season.  I expect the White Sox to hang a big number on Flaherty, and for the Tigers to do enough offensively against Smith and this taxed Chicago bullpen to get this OVER 8.5 combined runs.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nationals/Cubs OVER 10.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 10.5 ticket between the Nationals and Cubs today.  There will be steady 20 MPH winds blowing out to right-center at hitter-friendly Wrigley Field tonight.

I expect the Cubs to cover this total on their own against Jake Irvin, who is 8-10 with a 5.42 ERA in 28 starts this season.  Irvin is 0-4 with a 8.37 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in his last five starts, allowing 22 earned runs and 7 homers in 23 2/3 innings.  He has never beaten the Cubs, going 0-3 with a 8.00 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in four career starts against them, allowing 16 earned runs and 5 homers in 18 innings.

Javier Assad will be making just his 5th start of the season for the Cubs.  He is 1-1 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in four starts.  He is no more than a fill in starter for the Cubs.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-105)

The Cubs have a lot more to play for than the Nationals and a big advantage on the mound today.  There will be 20 MPH winds blowing out to right-center so runs will be plentiful, which is why I'll back the Cubs to win this game by multiple runs on the Run Line today.

Jake Irvin is 8-10 with a 5.42 ERA in 28 starts this season.  Irvin is 0-4 with a 8.37 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in his last five starts, allowing 22 earned runs and 7 homers in 23 2/3 innings.  He has never beaten the Cubs, going 0-3 with a 8.00 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in four career starts against them, allowing 16 earned runs and 5 homers in 18 innings.

Javier Assad is 15-12 with a 3.44 ERA in 314 innings in his career in the big leagues.  He has proven he can hang and will limit the Nationals enough to win this game by multiple runs.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Friday.