3* LATE INFO INSIDER

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3* NCAAB Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on Maryland 

I like the value here with the Terrapins at basically a pick'em at home against the Wolverines. Michigan comes in having won and covered 4 straight with the most recent being a 9-point win at Penn State as a 4-point underdog.

I believe the Wolverines are way overvalued here on the road against a underrated Maryland squad that has won 3 of 4 and have are red-hot from the field, hitting 51.2% from the field in their last 5 games. The Terps should be able to keep the offense rolling here, as Michigan has allowed opponents to connect on 47% of their shots away from home. 

Maryland might be just 8-9 in Big Ten play, but the important thing here is the game is being played at the XFINITY Center, where the Terps are 12-2 this season, where their only two losses have come against two of the elite teams in the entire country in Purdue and Michigan State. Take Maryland! 

5* NCAAB Heavy Hitter GAME OF THE MONTH on Yale -

I love the value here with the Bulldogs laying a short number on the road against the Big Red in Friday's Ivy League action. Yale comes in off an ugly loss at Harvard, but had won each of their previous 3 games and I like their chances of bouncing back in a big way here against Cornell. These two teams already played once this season and Yale won by 9 as a 6.5-point home favorite. 

Backing the Bulldogs on the road has been a money-maker, especially when they are laying points. Yale is 12-2 ATS over the last 3 seasons when listed as a road favorite. The Bulldogs have also owned this series, as they are a perfect 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings and have covered 6 straight on the road against the Big Red. Take Yale! 

3* NCAAB Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Hawaii - 

I like the value here with the Warriors laying a short number at home against the 49ers. Hawaii comes into this one riding a wave of confidence after racking up back-to-back road wins over UC-Irvine and UC-Riverside.

Long Beach State on the other hand has dropped 3 of their last 4 and all 4 of those came on the road. I just don't see the 49ers flipping the switch here on the road and winning this game. Long Beach State is a mere 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games off a loss and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games after playing 3 or more consecutive games at home. Take Hawaii! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Loyola Marymount +

I really like the value here with the Lions catching points on the road against the Broncos. While Santa Clara comes in having won 3 straight, each of the last two came on the road. The Broncos simply don't have a great home court edge and are just 6-10 SU and 4-10 ATS at home this season.

I know Loyola Marymount is just 2-12 away from home, but they have gone 6-5 ATS on the road and Santa Clara is a mere 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games vs a team with a losing road record. The Broncos are also 9-21 ATS in their last 30 home games off an upset win over a conference opponent and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games after 2 or more consecutive wins. Take Loyola Marymount! 

5* NCAAB Colonial (CAA) GAME OF THE YEAR on Hofstra -

I love the value here with the Pride at basically a pick'em against the Dukes on Thursday. Hofstra has been rolling and hasn't got the respect they deserve. That's evident by this low number here and the fact that they have gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games. 

Last time out the Pride rolled 88-76 at home over Drexel and are 8-1 in their last 9 road games after a combined score of 155 or more in 2 straight games and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games after a home game where both teams scored 75 or more points. Hofstra is also 12-1 ATS in their last 13 road games with a total set of 150 to 159.5, while the Dukes are a mere 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games after playing their previous game on the road. 

Adding to all of this is a great system going against the Dukes covering this number. Underdogs off a conference win as a dog of 6 or more are a mere 9-27 ATS (25%) ATS in their next game if facing a team that just scored 80 or more points in a conference win. Take Hofstra! 

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Fullerton +

I love the value here with the Titans as a short road favorite against the Highlanders in Wednesday's Big West action. CS-Fullerton is simply the superior team and there's just not a big enough home court edge for UC-Riverside to keep this within the number. The Titans are 15-9 overall and 8-4 in league play, while the Highlanders are just 7-19 overall and a mere 2-10 in conference play. 

The fact that Riverside only lost be 3 on the road to Fullerton in the previous matchup this season isn't a big concern for me. The Titans should have won that game going away, as they shot 54% from the field, while holding the Highlanders to just 34% shooting. They also had a +11 edge in rebounding. The big difference in the game was Riverside made 10 3-pointers on 46% shooting. That's unlikely to repeat itself. The Highlanders are shooting just 29.7% from 3-point range at home this season. 

Riverside is a mere 9-22 ATS in their last 31 home games, 3-11 ATS in their last 14 conference home games and 0-6 ATS over the last 2 seasons in home games played in February. Titans are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 vs a bad team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Take CS-Fullerton! 

3* NCAAB Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Virginia Tech -

I like the value here with the Hokies laying a short number at home against the Tigers. Virginia Tech has been rolling here of late, as they are 6-2 SU and 6-2 ATS over their last 8 games. I just don't feel they are getting enough respect here at home given the state of Clemson right now. 

The Hokies are 12-3 SU this year and are 26-11-1 ATS in their last 38 home games. The Tigers come in having lost their last two. The most recent an 11-point loss at home to Duke. Some might write that loss off because it came against the Blue Devils, but I believe it was more of a result of the team being without both Shelton Mitchell and Donte Grantham. Mitchell won't be available again and Grantham is out for the season. I think it's going to be really hard for Clemson to be competitive on the road here. 

The Tigers are just 5-11-2 ATS in their last 18 off a SU loss and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs a team with a winning record. Take Virginia Tech! 

4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Northern Iowa +

I like the value here with the Panthers as a road dog against the Crusaders on Tuesday. Northern Iowa won the first meeting on their home floor 81-76 and it could have been a lot worse as the Panthers shot 48% from the field and finished with a +13 rebound margin. 

Valparaiso comes in with a mere 14-15 record overall and these are the teams that UNI has had their way with. The Panthers are a dominant 20-8-4 ATS in their last 32 games vs a team with a losing record. 

Adding to all of this is a great system in favor of fading the Crusaders. Home favorites who have gone OVER the total by 30 or more combined points in their last 3 games are just 23-55 (30%) ATS since 1997 when it's a matchup of two marginal losing teams that have won between 40% to 49% of their games. Take Northern Iowa! 

3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Boston College +

I like the value here with the Eagles catching a big number here on the road against the Wolfpack. NC State is coming in off a couple of big road wins over Syracuse and Wake Forest and I could see them overlooking a pesky Boston College team that is going to be motivated off an embarrassing 17-point home loss to Notre Dame. The Eagles had won 3 of 4 prior to that defeat and while it won't be easy winning this one outright, I believe they can keep it close. 

A big reason for that is the Wolfpack are not a great defensive team. NC State has allowed 84 or more in 3 of their last 4 games. While BC isn't a top tier team, they do have two of the best players in the ACC in Ky Bowman and Jerome Robinson, who combined average 37.4 ppg, 10.5 rpg and 8.0 apg. These two guards should have their way here against the Wolfpack defense and that should allow the Eagles to keep this within the number. 

Note the Eagles are 14-1 ATS in their last 15 road games off an upset loss as a home favorite, while NC State is just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 off a cover and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 at home vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Boston College! 

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Central Michigan +

I like the value here with the Chippewas catching a decent number on the road against in-state rival Western Michigan. Central Michigan has covered 4 of their last 5 on the road in league play and the road team has dominated this series against the number, covering 7 of the last 10 meetings. 

Western Michigan has been overvalued a lot in MAC play and are just 3-7 ATS over their last 10 conference games. The Broncos have also not been a great bet at home, despite at 9-4 SU record, as they are just 3-6-1 ATS in their 10 lined home games. It's also worth noting that last time out Western Michigan fell 67-75 at Northern Illinois, as the Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss. Take Central Michigan! 

4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Cincy -

I like this spot for the Bearcats at home against Wichita State. This might seem like a big number for Cincinnati to be laying against a quality opponent, but my money is on the Shockers winning this one going away. This is a prime bounce back spot for the Bearcats off a lackluster showing in a 62-67 loss at Houston. Cincinnati had won 16 straight prior to that defeat to the Cougars. Their only other two losses were on the road to Xavier and Florida, as they come in a perfect 13-0 at home with a 7-3 ATS record in home lined games (outscoring opponents by almost 30 ppg, 83.7-54.6). 

Wichita State has found life a lot harder in the American. They are just 4-3 in their last 7 with all 4 wins coming on their home floor. Bearcats are 30-19 ATS in their last 49 as a favorite and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 off a game where they failed to cover. Take Cincinnati! 

4* NCAAB Late Night BAILOUT B-L-O-W-O-U-T on Santa Clara +

I like the value here with the Broncos as a near double-digit dog on the road against the Tigers. Santa Clara comes in red-hot off two straight upset wins. First they knocked off San Diego 70-64 as a 5-points home dog. They followed that up with a 81-72 win at Portland as a 2.5-point dog.

I think there's a shot here the Broncos can keep it rolling and make it 3 straight upset wins, but I'm especially confident they keep this one close. Revenge is also a major factor here, as Pacific laid it on Santa Clara earlier this season. That was simply an off night shooting for the Broncos, as they connected on just 32.1% from the field. Take Santa Clara! 

4* NCAAB Situational ATS NO-BRAINER on St. Peter's -

I like the value here with the Peacocks as a short road favorite against the Red Foxes. These two teams recently played on Feb. 8th and St. Peter's won that contest 70-66. the Peacocks dominated on the glass and had it not been for an off night shooting they would have won by a wider margin. 

Marist is a mere 1-9 SU in their last 10 games and have lost 4 straight on their home floor. The Red Foxes are just 9-20-1 ATS in their last 30 home games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games, while the Peacocks are 25-12-1 ATS in their last 38 road games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. Take St. Peter's! 

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5* NCAAB Vegas Insider GAME OF THE YEAR on William & Mary +

I like the value here with the Tribe catching a decent number here on the road against Northeastern. William & Mary have been an excellent team to back on the road, as they are 9-3 ATS away from home.

The Huskies on the other hand are a team that has been overvalued basically the entire month of February, as they are 1-5 ATS in their last 6, which includes an outright loss at home to Charleston as a 4-point favorite. 

The Tribe are also a team you want to look to back off a loss, as they have gone 14-5 in their last 19 off a conference loss. They also are great at getting revenge, as they are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 when revenging a loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. Take William & Mary! 

3* NCAAB Ivy League ATS ANNIHILATOR on Cornell +

I like the value here with the Big Red catching points at home against the Tigers. Cornell is a rock-solid 6-2 on their home floor with both losses coming by a mere 3-point. Princeton on the other hand has dropped 4 in a row, with each of the last two on the road. The offense has gone missing for the Tigers, as they have now shot 40% or worse from the field in each of their last 3 games. I don't see them being able to keep pace here on the road against a Cornell offense that averages a healthy 84.2 ppg at home. 

Last time out the Big Red lost 65-74 as a 6.5-point dog at Yale and that puts them in a great spot here, as they are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 after failing to cover their last game. Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Ivy League games and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 off a SU loss. Take Cornell! 

4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Yale -

I like the value here with the Bulldogs laying a short number on the road against the Big Green. Dartmouth is getting way to much respect on their home floor. The Big Green are just 5-16 overall with a mere 1-7 record in league play. Yale is 11-13 with a 4-4 record in league play. 

Dartmouth is simply getting love here following their impressive upset win over Princeton, as they won 72-56 as a 5.5-point home dog. The Big Green are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win and are also a mere 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games against Yale. The Bulldogs already beat Dartmouth by 10 at home and it could have been worse, as they shot 50.9% from the field. It's also worth noting that Yale has been an excellent team to back in this spot. The Bulldogs are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 as a road favorite. Take Yale! 

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Montana State +

I like the value here with the Bobcats as a double-digit dog on the road against the Vandals Thursday. Idaho is coming off a hard fought 66-64 win at home over Eastern Washington and I believe it puts them in a prime letdown spot here against a struggling Montana State team, as they will have a hard time not looking ahead to their showdown at home against Montana, who sits on top the Big Sky with a perfect 13-0 record. 

Idaho is also just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win and a mere 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. The Bobcats have also gone an impressive 4-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Idaho and the underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take Montana State! 

3* NCAAB Late Night ATS Annihilator on Arizona +

I like the value here with the Wildcats at basically a pick'em on the road against the Sun Devils. Arizona rebounded nicely from back-to-back losses with a convincing 81-67 win at home over USC this past weekend an I look for them to carry over that strong play with another win over Arizona State. The Wildcats defeated Arizona 84-78 in the first meeting this season, thanks in large part to their defense, which held a potent Sun Devils attack to just 37.9% shooting from the field. 

I just think Arizona State is still getting way too much respect from their 12-0 start to the season. They haven't been anywhere close to that in Pac-12 play and simply put Arizona is the much better team and knows how to win on the road. The Wildcats are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 conference road games and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games off a home conference win. Take Arizona! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on William Mary +

I love the value here with the Tribe catching points on the road agains the Pride. William & Mary has been a road covering machine this season, as the Tribe are 9-2 ATS away from home. They have also enjoyed the role of the underdog going 8-2 ATS in the 10 games this season when getting points. 

On the flip side of this Hofstra has been a great team to fade at home, as they are a mere 14-36-1 ATS in their last 51 home games. Last time out they lost by 20 as a 3-point road favorite at UNC-Wilmington. That's important to note as they are just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 home games after playing their previous game as a favorite and 2-12 ATS in their last 14 off a game where they didn't cover. Simply put, the Pride are getting way too much respect at home here. Take William & Mary. 

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Delaware +

I like the value here with the Blue Hens catching double-digits on the road against the Tigers. Delaware comes in off a 66-83 loss as a 9.5-point dog at William & Mary. Few teams have been as good as the Blue Hens at bouncing back after a non-cover, as they are 33-16-3 ATS in their last 52 games after failing to cover the number in their previous game. 

Towson on the other hand comes in having failed to cover the spread in each of their last 5 games. The most recent being a 15-point home loss to Northeastern as a 3.5-point favorite. It's the second straight game they have lost outright at home as a favorite, as they fell 76-83 as a 9-point favorite against Elon in their previous home game.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in favor of the Blue Hens. Road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points off a game where they allowed 80 or more points are 65-34 (66%) ATS when facing a team that's coming off a loss by 15 or more points. Take Delaware! 

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5* NCAAB Big West GAME OF THE MONTH on Riverside +

I'm recommending a play on the Highlanders as a short road dog against the Matadors in Wednesday's Big West action. UC Riverside is going to be out for revenge from an earlier loss at home to Northridge and I believe there's reason they get it. The Highlanders couldn't have shot much worse in that first meeting, as they connected on just 32.1% from the field. Riverside is also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their lsat 6 when revenging a loss as a home favorite. 

I look for a much better showing here against a Matadors defense that comes in having allowed each of their last 2 opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field. Note that Northridge ranks 8th out of 9 teams in the Big West in defensive efficiency. 

I also think this is a good spot to fade the Matadors off a ridiculous shooting game against Hawaii, where they shot 65.1% from the field in an outright win as a 12.5-point dog. Northridge is just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 off a game where they shot 55% or better. They are also a mere 5-13 ATS in their last 18 home games and 0-9 ATS in their last 9 home games when they come in having lost 4 of 5. Take UC Riverside! 

4* NCAAB Situational ATS No-Brainer on Central Michigan +

I like the value here with the Chippewas at basically a pick'em on the road against the Huskies. Central Michigan had their way with Northern Illinois in the previous meeting this season, winning 81-67 as a mere 5-point home favorite.

They did so while allowing the Huskies to shoot 51.9% from the field. I think we get a better defensive effort here, while the offense once again rolls over a struggling Northern Illinois defense that has allowed their opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field in 5 of their last 8 games. The Huskies were able to snap a 4-game skid with a 90-88 upset win at home over Buffalo, but are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 off a SU win. Take Central Michigan! 

3* NCAAB Vegas Line Mistake on St. Peter's +

I like the value here with the Peacocks catching points on the road against the Hawks. St. Peter's will hit the road following a 4-game homestand and this has proven to be a great time to back the Peacocks, as they are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games after playing 3 or more consecutive games at home. Not to mention they are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games after a loss.

They will be taking on a Monmouth team that i just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games. The Hawks are just 1-4 in their last 5 and have won a grand total of 8 games all season. These are the kind of teams that the Peacocks have performed well against, as they are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Take St. Peter's! 

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout  on West Virginia -

I like the value here West Virginia at home against the Horned Frogs. The Mountaineers come into this game off a crushing 85-88 loss at home just when it looked like they were getting back on track after that 1-5 stretch. I believe they will be extremely motivated here not to go into another slump and will do whatever it takes to get a win. On top of that, they also will be out for revenge against the Horned Frogs. 

TCU has been hit or miss since losing point guard Jaylen Fisher, so while they come in off an impressive 16-point win at home over Texas, they are just as likely to lay an egg here. Note that the Horned Frogs haven't won consecutive games since they started the season 12-0. Part of that is they aren't a deep team, which I think is a major factor here on the road playing on just 1-day of rest. Take West Virginia! 

4* NCAAB Situational ATS No-Brainer on Illinois +

I like this spot here with Illinois as a home dog against the Nittany Lions. I know the Fighting Illini are just 2-10 in Big 10 play and Penn State is the better team, but the situation here really favors the home team. The Nittany Lions are not a great road team and I think they could have a hard time not looking ahead to this week's big home game against Ohio State. 

On the flip side of this, I think we are going to get a max effort here from Illinois after a lackluster showing in their last game at home against Wisconsin. The Fighting Illini shot just 38.2% from the field in that game, which is well below their season average of 46% at home. 

Nittany Lions are just 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 road games vs a team with a winning home record and are 0-6 ATS on the road over the last 3 seasons when they come into a game having covered 3 of their last 4 games. Take Illinois! 

3* NCAAB Late Night ATS Annihilator on Portland +

I like the value here with the Pilots catching a big number on the road against the Tigers. I just feel that Portland is way undervalued right now due to their 4-9 league record and it's shown in their recent games, as they come in on a 6-0-1 ATS run in their last 7 games. Last time out they went on the road and lost by just 2-points at San Francisco as a 10-point dog. They also have outright wins at San Diego as a 13-point dog and Loyola-Marymount as a 7-point dog. 

The Pilots are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games when playing on just 1 day of rest and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games when revenging a same season loss. Take Portland! 

4* NCAAB Vegas ATS No-Brainer on Pepperdine +

I like the value here with the Waves catching a decent amount of points against the Lions. While Pepperdine is just 4-21 on the season and a mere 1-12 in conference play, Loyola Marymount isn't much better. The Lions are only 7-17 overall and just one game better at 2-11 in West Coast action. 

It just so happens that lone win for Pepperdine came against Loyola-Marymount. That outcome is a good sign that the Waves can not only keep this within the number, but I wouldn't be shocked if they won the game outright given how little a home court edge the Lions have. Loyola is just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 home games when listed as the favorite and are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 off a SU loss of more than 20 points (lost by 21 at home to St. Mary's last game). Take Pepperdine! 

3* NCAAB Vegas Line Mistake on Alabama +

I like the value here with the Crimson Tide as a home dog against the Volunteers on Saturday. Alabama has a tremendous home court advantage and it's a big reason why they are 10-2 at home this season. Coleman Coliseum is going to be electric tonight when the Crimson Tide take on No. 15 Tennessee and I fully expect them to win this game outright. 

Tennessee is just 11-25 ATS in their last 36 road games when they go into a game having won 3 or more conference games in a row and are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 trips to Tuscaloosa. Crimson Tide are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 conference games and 16-6 ATS in their last 22 as a home dog of 3 points or less. Take Alabama! 

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Quinnipiac +

I like the value here with the Bobcats catching a big number on the road against the Golden Griffins. I just feel that Canisius is way overvalued here in a game they could be easily overlooking, as they have already knocked off Quinnipiac on the road and the Bobcats have lost their last 3 with the most recent being a 19-point loss at Niagara. 

Quinnipiac did keep it close against the Golden Griffins in that first meeting, losing by just 8, despite shooting just 35% from the field and allowing Canisius to connect on 48% of their attempts. The Golden Griffins come in having won 3 straight and that's important to note as they are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games when off 3 straight conference wins. Take Quinnipiac! 

4* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Delaware +

I like the value here with the Blue Hens as a near double-digit dog against the Tribe on Saturday. Delaware is simply undervalued right now, as they come in having lost 7 straight. A lot of that has been the simply inability to close out games, as 5 of the 7 losses have come by 8 points or less.

I like their chances of keeping it well within the number here against William & Mary and wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright. The Tribe are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. The most recent being a 79-91 loss to Drexel as a 8.5-point favorite. Take Delaware! 

5* NCAAB Colonial Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on Northeastern +

I love the value here with the Huskies catching points against the Tigers in Saturday's Colonial Athletic showdown. Northeastern comes in having won 2 straight and are 6-2 in their last 8 overall, while Towson has failed to cover the spread in each of their last 4 games. Playing on the road hasn't been a problem for the Huskies, who are 4-1 in their last 5 away from home in CAA action with the only loss a mere 1-point defeat at Drexel. 

One of the big keys to this game will be the edge Northeastern has on the defensive side of the ball. The Huskies have held 5 of their last 6 opponents under 70 points, while Towson has allowed 70+ in 6 straight games, including a whopping 92 points in their last game against the Dragons. The Tigers are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 after giving up 90+ points. Take Northeastern! 

4* NCAAB Situational Vegas Insider on Baylor +

I like the value here with the Bears as a home dog against the Jayhawks in Saturday's Big 12 action. Baylor comes into this game with a ton of confidence after back-to-back impressive wins. First they rolled ISU 81-67 at home and they followed that up with a 67-56 victory at Oklahoma State. On top of that, this is a game the Bears have had circled on the calendar, especially after that heartbreaking 67-70 loss at Lawrence in late January, where Baylor blew a 6-point lead in the final couple minutes of regulation. 

I know Kansas comes in at 19-5, but this is not the same caliber a Jayhawks team as we have seen in years past. They have been very fortunate in close games and I think it has them overvalued on the road here. Kansas was able to beat TCU at home in their last game, but are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 off a SU win. Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a win and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 at home vs a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take Baylor! 

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on NC State +

I think we are getting some great value here with the Wolfpack as a home dog against in-state rival North Carolina. This is an ideal spot to fade the Tar Heels off arguably their biggest win of the season in Thursday's 82-78 victory against rival Duke. Big time letdown spot here for UNC, while NC State is going to lay everything they have into this matchup. 

The biggest factor here is just how well the Wolfpack play at home. NC State is 13-2 on their home floor this season, which includes a 96-86 win over Duke as a 12.5-point dog. The other key here is we know the Wolfpack matchup well with the Tar Heels, as they went into Chapel Hill and knocked off UNC in late January. 

It's also worth noting that North Carolina is just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 conference road games and a mere 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games off a conference win. Take NC State! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Columbia +

I love the value here with the Lions catching points on the road against the Bulldogs. Columbia held on for a 77-74 win at home over Dartmouth, which was a good win coming off that big victory at home over Harvard. The Lions are now 3 -1 in their last 4 with the only loss being a 1-point loss at Cornell. 

Yale on the other hand has dropped each of their last 2 games and are just 1-4 SU in their last 5. The most recent being a 50-59 loss at Penn, which is important to note as the Bulldogs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after playing their last game on the road and 0-6 ATS this season off a road loss. Yale is also a mere 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games, while Columbia is 19-8 ATS in their last 27 road games vs a team that's won 60% or more of their home games. 

Adding to all of this is a great system favoring a play on the Lions. Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are off a home win as a favorite where they didn't cover the spread are 27-7 (79%) ATS when playing on Friday over the last 5 seasons. Take Columbia! 

5* NCAAB Late Night GAME OF THE MONTH on San Diego -

I love the value here with the Toreros in Thursday's road game against Pepperdine. San Diego is going to be chomping at the bit to get back in action after losing their last two games, both of which were contested battles against two of the top teams in the conference in Gonzaga and St. Mary's. 

I just don't see the Waves being able to keep this one competitive enough to cover this spread. Pepperdine is just 4-20 overall and a mere 1-11 in conference play. They are just 6-21 ATS in their last 27 vs a team with a winning record and are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs a team with a winning record. 

The Toreros on the other hand are a great road team, especially when it comes to covering the number. They are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 road games overall and a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs a team with a losing home record. Take San Diego! 

5* NCAAB Big West GAME OF THE YEAR on Poly +

I look for the Mustangs to have zero problem covering this spread on the road against the Titans Thursday. CS-Fullerton simply has no business being this big a favorite in this matchup. These two teams played earlier this season at Cal-Poly and the Titans needed overtime to escape with a 101-97 win, despite shooting a ridiculous 58% from the field in that contest. 

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the Mustangs won this game outright. Cal Poly has won each of their last two games, including a 78-64 win over Hawaii as a 4-point home dog in their last game. CS-Fullerton has lost each of their last 2 games at home are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs a team with a losing road record. 

Adding to all of this is a great system backing a play on the Mustangs. Underdogs off an upset win by 10 or more points as a home dog, who have 2 more returning starters than their opponent are 54-23 (70%) ATS going all the way back to 1997. Take Cal Poly! 

4* NCAAB Late Night ATS Heavy Hitter on Portland +

I like the value here with the Pilots as a double-digit dog against the Dons in Thursday's West Coast action. Portland is playing arguably their best basketball of the season right now. The Pilots come in off back-to-back wins and are 4-2 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games. San Francisco was able to knock of Santa Clara on the road in their last game, but are just 3-5 in their last 8.

The Dons have struggled to put back-to-back quality games together, as they are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 off a win and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 off a cover. San Francisco is also a miserable 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Pilots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 on the road. Take Portland! 

4* NCAAB Vegas Line Mistake on Manhattan +

I like the value here with the Jaspers catching a big number on the road against the Broncs in Thursday's MAAC action. Manhattan snapped a 3-game skid with a 51-47 win at Siena last time out and are now 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games. They are also a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. 

Rider is also a team that is way overvalued right now. The Broncs come in riding a 6-game winning streak and are 10-1 in their last 11 overall. Keep in mind in their last home game they were just a 6.5-point favorite against Monmouth, who currently has the same 6-6 record in league play as Manhattan. 

The Jaspers are also 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games when playing only their 2nd game in a 7-day span, while the Broncs are just 10-22 ATS in their last 32 home games when riding a winning streak of 3 or more games. Take Manhattan! 

4* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog  on Quinnipiac +

I like the value here with the Bobcats catching a big number on the road against the Purple Eagles in Thursday's MAAC action. Quinnipiac will be out for revenge from a 73-81 home loss to Niagara back in January and it's worth noting that they lost by just 8-points in that game, despite playing about as poor as they could. The Bobcats shot just 37.8% from the field, while allowing the Purple Eagles to shoot 50%. 

This is also a great spot to go against Niagara, as they are in a prime letdown spot here after playing about as well as they could in Sunday's 96-91 upset win at Monmouth. The Purple Eagles are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games off an upset win and are also a worthless 0-7 ATS at home in the month of February over the last 3 seasons. Take Quinnipiac! 

3* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Norhteastern -

I look for the Huskies to have no problem going into Delaware and covering this spread against the Blue Hens. Northeastern is currently tied for 2nd in the Colonial at 8-4, just 1-game back of Charleston for the top spot in the conference. Delaware on the other hand is tied for the 2nd worst record in the CAA at 4-8, just 1-game ahead of last place James Madison. 

The Blue Hens have also been a great team to fade when they take a step up in competition. Delaware is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs a team that's won between 60% and 80% of their games and a mere 8-20 ATS in their last 28 vs strong offensive teams that are shooting 45% or better from the field. In both scenarios the Blue Hens are losing on average by double-digits. Take Northeastern! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Hofstra +

I love the value here with the Pride as a dog against the Phoenix on Thursday. Hofstra will be out for revenge from a home loss to Elon earlier this season and are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. As for the Phoenix, they are a mere 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games against a team with a winning road record. 

On top of that we see that Hofstra is 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games when listed as a road dog and 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games with a total in the range of 150 to 159.5. 

Adding to all of this is a huge system in favor of the Pride. Road underdogs who are evening a loss where they allowed 75+ points in a game that involves two marginal winning teams are 49-21 (70%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Hofstra! 

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Marist +

I like the value here with the Red Foxes as a double-digit dog against the Peacocks in Thursday's MAAC action. Marist was just embarrassed in their last game, losing by 34-points at home to Iona and that should lead to a big time effort here from the Red Foxes. 

St. Peter's comes in off a 15-point home loss against one of the top teams in the conference in Canisius and are now just 1-7 in their last 9 games. Simply put this team has no business being a double-digit favorite here. The Peacocks are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 following a double-digit loss at home and a mere 8-25 ATS in their last 33 home games after a stretch where they have lost 8 or more of their last 10.

The Red Foxes on the other hand are 22-10 ATS in their last 32 in this price range of a road dog of 9.5 to 12 points. They are also 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 off a double-digit loss at home and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Take Marist! 

4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER (Florida -9)

I really like this spot for the Gators to win in blowout fashion at home against LSU on Wednesday. Florida is going to be a pissed off group when they take the floor in this one. The Gators come in off back-to-back losses. The most recent being an ugly 18-point upset loss at home to Alabama as a 8-point favorite. The big key here is we know this is a really good Florida team and let's not forget the last time they lost at home was to South Carolina and they came back the very next game and destroyed a good Baylor team by 21-points. 

The other key here is that LSU is a team they can put away early and win comfortably against. The Tigers come in off a win and cover at home against Arkansas, but are just 2-5 SU in their last 7 games and have lost 3 straight on the road in SEC play, including a 23-point loss to Tennessee and 25-piont loss at Auburn in their last two away from home. 

The favorite is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in this series and LSU is just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 off a conference win and just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 off a home conference win. Take Florida! 

3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Missouri +

I like the value here with the Tigers catching points against the Rebels in Tuesdays' SEC matchup. Missouri has been better than anticipated without star freshman Michael Porter Jr. The Tigers are 15-8 with a 5-5 record in the SEC and if the season were to end today they would be a NCAA Tournament team. Ole Miss on the other hand is just 11-12 with a mere 4-6 record in league play. 

The Rebels come into this game struggling to get anything going. They have lost 3 straight and 5 of their last 6 overall. I think Ole Miss will find it difficult to get on the right track against Missouri, who are an excellent defensive team. The Tigers rank in the Top 25 in the country in field goal % allowed (39.9%) and defending the 3-pointer (31%). The Rebels rank 238th in shooting at 43.5% and 252nd in 3-point shooting at 33.6%. Factor in that Ole Miss is 281st allowing 76.8 ppg and struggle to defend the 3-pointer and are facing a good 3-point shooting team and all signs point to the Tigers getting the victory here. Take Missouri! 

4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Tennessee + 

The public is all of Kentucky as a slim home favorite, but I think the Vols are the right side in Tuesday's big SEC showdown on ESPN. Tennessee has been one of the bigger surprises this season, as they come in at 17-5 overall and 7-3 in the SEC. One of those wins was a comfortable 76-65 home win over Kentucky back in early January.

As much respect as I have for Calipari and what this Wildcats program has been able to do, I think it has them getting a little too much respect with this years team, which is way down in comparison to what we have seen in the past. That's pretty evident when you look at the fact that Kentucky is just 9-13 ATS on the season and are a mere 2-7-1 ATS in their 10 conference games.

While the Wildcats do have a 13-1 record at home, we did just recently see them lose to Florida on their home floor and Tennessee has gone 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS in their 10 games away from home this season. I think the Vols pull off the upset tonight. Take Tennessee! 

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Temple -

I like the value here with the Owls as a slim 2-point favorite at Tulane on Sunday. Temple comes in having won 4 of 5 and are fresh off a thrilling 81-79 win at home over Wichita State. That followed a 27-point blowout win at home over UCONN. Needless to say the Owls are rolling right now and the Green Wave are certainly a team they can handle away from home. 

I just think Tulane is getting way too much respect here on their home floor. Let's not forget they lost 75-80 in their last home game against USF as a massive 13-point favorite. I also think there's a perception here that Temple is going to suffer a letdown after that big win, but I see them building off that. 

Owls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Tulane and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 on the road after a game where 155 combined points were scored. Green Wave are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 after playing a game as a road favorite and 6-15 ATS in their last 21 conference home games. Take Temple! 

4* NCAAB Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on San Francisco -

I like the value here with the Dons laying what I think is a short number here on the road against the Broncos. San Francisco has got off to a disappointment 4-7 start in conference play, but a big part of that is they have already played Gonzaga twice and had to play at St. Mary's. Another one of their losses came at home to Santa Clara, which I think was more of a result of the Dons not showing up after a hard fought 10-pt loss at home to Gonzaga. 

I think we get an all-out effort here from San Francisco in this one and that should lead to a rather comfortable win. The Dons are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 off a SU loss of more than 20 points, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after scoring less than 50 points and 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 road games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. Take San Francisco! 

3* NCAAB Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on UCLA -

I like the value here with the Bruins laying a short number at home against the Trojans. USC comes in having won 6 straight games and are 4-1-1 ATS during this stretch. I think it has the Trojans way overvalue here on the road against a good UCLA squad that is playing with confidence after winning their last two games. The Bruins are also 11-2 on their home floor this season, where they are outscoring opponents by 12.5 ppg. 

Bruins are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and are 5-0 in their last 5 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games overall. It's also worth noting the home team has consistently been the right side, going 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in the series. Take UCLA! 

3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Drexel +

I like the value here with the Dragons catching almost double-digits on the road against the Tribe. Drexel is playing well right now, as they come in having won 3 straight, and are going to be extremely motivated here to get revenge from an earlier loss at home to William & Mary. 

Needless to say the Dragons have been money in this spot. They are 50-28 ATS in their last 78 when revenging a home loss and a much better 24-9 ATS when revenging a home loss of 10 or more points. Take Drexel! 

4* NCAAB Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Illinois State -

I like the value here with the Redbirds as a short home favorite against the Purple Aces on Saturday. Illinois State simply isn't getting enough respect here with this game being on their home floor. The Redbirds are 7-3 at home this season, while Evansville is just 3-7 on the road (getting outscored by nearly 10 ppg). 

Not only does Illinois State have a big home court edge here, but they have also already shown they matchup well with this Evansville side, handing them one of their two home losses earlier this season. Redbirds are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games played on Saturday and 22-7 ATS in their last 29 when they come in having won 2 of their last 3 games. Take Illinois State! 

5* NCAAB West Coast GAME OF THE MONTH on Loyola +

I love the value here with the Lions at basically a pick'em on the road against the Pilots this Saturday. Loyola-Marymount is just 1-5 in their last 6 games, but are fresh off an impressive 76-69 win at home over BYU as a 10-point dog. They have been a lot more competitive than their recent run would suggest, as 4 of those losses were by 7 points or less. 

Not only are we catching the Lions playing with some renewed confidence off that upset win, but they will also come out highly motivated to get revenge from a recent loss to these Pilots. Another big key here is that Portland has a history of not playing well on their home floor. The Pilots are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games and a mere 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs a team with a losing road record. Take Loyola-Marymount! 

3* NCAAB ATS Heavy HITTER on Wake Forest +

I like the value here with the Demon Deacons catching points at home against Clemson. Wake Forest snapped a 7-game skid with a 76-72 upset win at home over FSU on Wednesday. I think we see the Demon Deacons carry over that momentum for today's home game against the Tigers.

Clemson was able to hold on for a 82-78 win at home over UNC. Easily their best win since losing one of their better players in senior Donte Grantham. I don't think it will be as easy playing at that level on the road without Grantham. Keep in mind that the Tigers are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 conference road games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games after playing a game as an underdog. Take Wake Forest! 

5* NCAAB Ivy League GAME OF THE  MONTH on Dartmouth +

I love the value here with the Big Green catching points here on the road against the Big Red. The books are just begging for you to take Cornell here with this small number, which only makes me like Dartmouth that much more. The Big Green have lost their last 7 games, but only two of those were at home and they have been a lot more competitive than the skid would lead you to believe. 

The Big Red are getting some love for an upset win at home over Columbia, but let's not forget this is a team that had gone just 1-6 in their last 7 games. Cornell has also not done well in this spot, as they are just 15-32 ATS in their last 47 when listed as a home favorite of 6 points or less. They are also just 9-25-1 ATS in their last 35 after a came where they covered the spread. Take Dartmouth!  

4* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Quinnipiac +

I like the value here with the Bobcats as a big double-digit road dog against the Gaels on Friday. Quinnipiac is more than capable of keeping this within the number. The Bobcats come inlaying extremely well, as they have won 3 straight with the last two being upsets over Marist and Fairfield.

I think we are seeing an inflated number here due to Iona being 6-1 at home, but Quinnipiac has gone 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs a team with a winning home record. The Bobcats are also 10-3-1 ATS in their last 13 after a came where they covered the spread and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games after a game where they covered. Take Quinnipiac! 

4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Niagara +

I like the value here with the Purple Eagles catching points on the road against the Peacocks on Friday night. Niagara just won 105-89 at Canisius as a 8-point dog and are now 7-1 in their last 8 games overall.

I look for the Purple Eagles to ride that momentum to another win tonight. St Peters has lost 6 in a row and are just 1-5 ATS during this stretch. Purple Eagles are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games and the Peacocks are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 home games vs a team with a winning road record. 

Adding to all of this is a great system. Rod teams off a conference win as a dog of 6 points or more are 42-15 ATS over the last 5 seasons when facing a team off 2 or more road losses. That's a 74% system in favor of the Purple Eagles. Take Niagara. 

5* NCAAB Vegas INSIDER Top Play on Elon +

I love the value here with the Phoenix catching points on the road against the Tribe. Elon comes in off a 83-76 win at Towson St as a 9-point and I look for them to carry over that momentum in tonight's showdown against William & Mary. The Phoenix will definitely be up for this game, as they have revenge from an upset loss at home to the Tribe a couple weeks back. 

Adding even more value is a great system in play on the Phoenix. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a conference win as a dog of 6 or more are 27-7 (74%) ATS when facing an opponent off a road win by 3 points or less. Take Elon! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on James Madison +

I love the value here with the Dukes catching points on the road against the Dragons. While Drexel comes in off an impressive 68-67 upset win at home over Northeastern as a 6-point dog, I think it works against them here, as it puts in a major letdown spot against at team they lost to already once this season. 

James Madison is also a team that has thrived in the role of the road dog, going 7-1 ATS this season in this spot. Dragons are just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 after playing a game as a home dog, while the Dukes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 at home vs a team that is giving up 77+ points/game at least 15 games into the season. Take James Madison! 

5* NCAAB No Limit GAME OF THE MONTH  on Riverside +

I love the value here with the Highlanders catching points here on the road against the Mustangs. These are two equally bad teams and I just don't see a big enough home court edge for Cal Poly to be laying this many points. UC Riverside has started out 0-7 in Big West play and I see them being extremely motivated to get that first conference win against a team they can compete against. 

It wouldn't be anything new if the Highlanders pulled off the upset. They have done exactly that each of the last two years. They won 72-68 in 2016 as a 8-point dog and last year won 67-56 as a 5-point dog. Cal Poly is also just 8-22 ATS in their last 30 home games and 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take UC Riverside! 

3* NCAAB Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Baylor +

All the hype around Oklahoma's star freshman Trae Young not only has the Sooners overvalued in the betting market, but it also has put a target on their back. Teams are looking ahead to playing this team and it's hard when you get the best from every single opponent you face. I think this game had a lot to do with Baylor's lackluster showing on the road saturday at Florida, where they lost by 21 points. 

The Sooners are just 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS over their last 7 games. Baylor is a team that finds a way to play their best on the road in Big 12 play, especially against the top teams. They only lost by 3 at West Virginia as a 10-point dog and had Kansas on the ropes before losing by 3-pionts as a 8-point dog. This is a game the Bears are more than capable of winning outright, but should be able to keep it within the number. They are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 road games and 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 off a loss by more than 20-points. Take Baylor! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Marist +

I love the value we are getting here with the Red Foxes as a near double-digit dog at Manhattan on Tuesday. Marist is just 4-17 overall and 1-11 SU in road games this season, but are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games and have covered 3 of their last 4 on the road and barely missed out on a cover in the one that didn't go their way. 

Manhattan simply isn't a good enough team to be laying this many points. The Jaspers have lost 3 of their last 4 and are just 1-3 ATS during this stretch. Marist has failed to cover 2 of their last 3, but that's a positive, as they are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games in this spot. 

Adding to all of this is a great system back a play on the Red Foxes. Underdogs who have won fewer than 20% of their games are 43-17 (72%) ATS when revenging a home loss to an opponent that has a losing record. Take Marist! 

3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Nebraska +

This Cornhuskers team has been flying under the radar pretty much all season. They were being predicted to finish in the bottom of the Big 10 and some even thought they would be the worst team in the league. Nebraska is 16-8 SU and 16-6 ATS, which includes a 9-2 ATS mark inside Big Ten Play.

The Cornhuskers own the 4th best record in the conference at 7-4, while Wisconsin is 3-6. The Badgers weren't done any favors by the schedule makers, as they have played 5 of their last 6 on the road and have gone just 1-5 during this stretch. Could they bounce back with a win here, certainly, but I just think Nebraska is the much better team and don't feel Wisconsin deserves to be favored by this much. Badgers are 6-3 at home, but when faced against a good team they have struggle at home, losing by 10 to Xavier, by 25 to Ohio State and by 19 to Marquette. I think the Cornhuskers win outright here. Take Nebraska! 

4* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Santa’s Clara -

I cashed in on the Broncos on the road Thursday at San Diego and will fire back with them here catching points at Pepperdine. The Waves come in off a mere 1-point win at home over Loyola-Marymount for their first conference win of the season. That's nothing to get excited about, as they are now tied with Loyola-Marymount in the basement of the WCC at 1-8. 

The Broncos are 4-5 in league play and already took care of business against the Waves earlier this season at home and are now 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in the series. Pepperdine is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 when revenging a loss and 1-8 ATS over the last 2 seasons at home when playing on Saturday. Broncos are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games off a conference loss and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games after scoring 25 or fewer points in the 1st half of their previous game. Take Santa Clara! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on San Diego -

I love the value here with the Toreros as a short road favorite against the Lions on Saturday. San Diego comes in off a 66-58 win at home over Santa Clara and I look for them to carry over that momentum here against Loyola Marymount.

This is a game San Diego needs to win with games against Gonzaga and St Mary's looming on deck. That shouldn't be a problem, as the Lions are a mere 1-8 in conference play and are just 4-5 at home this season. Toreros are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road games, while Marymount is just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Take San Diego! 

4* NCAAB Non-Conf Game of the Week  on Alabama +

I like the value here with the Crimson Tide as a home dog against the Sooners on Saturday. I think we are getting a great price here on Alabama because of how much love Oklahoma is getting because of the play of Trae Young. The Sooners have lost 3 straight on the road and couldn't be in a bigger letdown spot after their huge win over Kansas earlier this week. 

Alabama on the other hand is very tough to take down on their home court. The Crimson Tide are a perfect 4-0 at home in SEC play and 9-1 overall. That includes a 22-point win over Texas A&M and a victory over Auburn, who is on top the SEC and has a 18-2 record overall. Adding to this is the fact that Oklahoma is a mere 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games when listed as a favorite. Take Alabama! 

4* NCAAB Situational ATS NO BRAINER on Duke -

I like the value here with the Blue Devils laying a short number at home against Virginia in Saturday's huge ACC showdown. Duke was widely considered the most talented team in the country coming into the season and they haven't disappointed. The fact that the Cavaliers are 19-1 is certainly helping us here and I'm not saying Virginia isn't a good team, I just don't think they can keep it this close against Duke on their home floor.

The Blue Devils are a perfect 10-0 at home this season, where they are averaging 96 ppg. As good as the Cavaliers are defensively, they haven't seen anything like what Duke is going to bring to the table on Saturday and I don't think they have the offensive fire-power to keep pace. 

Adding to all of this is a great system backing a fade of Virginia here. Road underdogs who are an excellent defensive team, allowing 63 or less points/game, and fresh off a game where they held their opponent to 50 or less are just 16-46 (26%) ATS when facing an average defensive team that allows 67-74 points/game. Take Duke! 

4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Dartmouth +

I like the value here with the Big Green as a decently priced road dog against the Bears on Friday. Dartmouth is getting zero love here due to the fact that they are just 4-11 overall and have lost 5 straight. The key here is that Brown is a team they can not only hang with on the road, but beat outright. 

The Big Green lost by just 5 points in their last game, but failed to cover as a 4.5-point dog. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a game where they didn't cover, 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 off a SU defeat and 13-4 ATS over the last 3 seasons when they come into a game having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7. Take Dartmouth! 

5* NCAAB Small Conf GAME OF THE MONTH  on St. Peter's +

I love the value and the spot here with the Peacocks catching a big number here on the road against the Broncs.   St. Peter's comes in having lost 4 straight, but have been a lot more competitive than you would think for a team on a 4-game skid. All 4 losses came by 12-points or less, including a mere 4-point loss at home to Rider. Revenge is a big time motivator in college sports and I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Peacocks returned the favor and won this game outright. 

The road team has dominated this series, going 27-10-2 ATS in the last 39 meetings, with St. Peter's going 4-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Rider. The Peacocks are also 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games off a loss. The Broncs are also just 9-21 ATS in their last 30 home games after 3 or more consecutive wins and 5-15 ATS in their last 20 off a close road win by 3 points or less. Take St. Peter's!

4* NCAAB Late Night BAILOUT B-L-O-W-O-U-T on Santa Clara +

I like the value here with the Broncos catching near double-digits on the road against the Toreros. While San Diego comes in with an overall record of just 7-13, they are 4-4 in conference play. The Broncos lost 60-75 at home to the Gonzaga in their last game, but did cover as a 20 point dog.

Santa Clara is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games off a conference loss and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games off a loss by 15 or more points. San Diego on the other hand is just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. 

Adding to all of this is a great system in favor of the Broncos. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are off a cover where they lost outright are 66-33 (67%) ATS when facing a team off a road loss by 10 or more points. Take Santa Clara! 

5* NCAAB CAA (Colonial) GAME OF THE MONTH on Northeastern +

I love the value here with the Huskies at basically a pick'em here against the Pride. Northeastern is tied with William & Mary on top the CAA and red-hot right now having won 3 straight, which includes a 20-point road win over William & Mary. I look for the Huskies to have no problem here coming away with a win against Hofstra. 

The Pride upset Northeastern on the road earlier this season, which only adds more fuel to the fire here for the Huskies. Hofstra failed to cover in their last game and that's worth noting, as they are just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 home games after failing to cover the spread. The Pride are also just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games overall and 3-15 ATS over the last 3 seasonswhen playing for just the second time in a week stretch. 

Adding to all of this is a great system in play on the Huskies. Road teams who are listed at +3 to -3 that are revenging a home loss and have won each of their last 2 games by 10 or more points are 30-9 (77%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Northeastern! 

5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Quinnipiac +

I like the value with the Bobcats at basically a pick'em here against the Red Foxes. While Quinnipiac is just 2-9 on the road, Marist is just 3-5 at home and have just 1 win in their last 6 games. They are also just 2-8 in their last 10 overall. 

Bobcats come into this one off a 76-69 win at home over Siena as a 2-point favorite and are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a contest in which they covered the spread. The Bobcats are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a losing record, while the Red Foxes are a mere 8-19-1 ATS in their last 28 home games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Quinnipiac! 

4* NCAAB Situational ATS NO BRAINER on William & Mary +

I like the value here with the Tribe catching what I feel is way too many points here against the Tigers. This line would suggest that Towson is the much better team. I don't think that's the case at all. William & Mary is 6-2 in conference play, while the Tigers are just 4-4 and fresh off a loss as a 5.5-point favorite at Wilmington. The Tribe on the other hand just won by 7 on the road as a dog against Elon and are now 6-4 away from home this season. 

Tribe are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games after scoring 80 or more points, 7-0 ATS after a game where they shot 50% or better from the field and 10-0 ATS in their last 10 when revenging a loss. Take William & Mary!