5* WISEGUY CBB UNDERDOG SHOCKER OF THE WEEK on South Carolina +4.5

Bottom Line: South Carolina has lost 5 of 6 in league play, including 3 straight, but I like its chances of pulling off the upset tonight. Home court is huge in CBB, but it hasn't mattered in this series as the home team is 0-5 in the last 5 meetings with the losses coming by an average of 9.6 points. I really believe the Gamecocks are the better team. Their record doesn't show it, but they've played a much tougher schedule. They will also be the more motivated team tonight as they look to end their skid. Pound South Carolina.

5* WISEGUY CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State -4

Bottom Line: I love the Cowboys at home in this highly motivated spot. Not only are they off a 10-point loss at K-State, but they lost both meetings with Baylor last season. They'll be out for some serious revenge tonight. Oklahoma State is a ridiculous 50-28 ATS in lined home games under Travis Ford and has won these by 10.3 points on average. It is 44-23 ATS as a home favorite or pickem under Ford, winning these by 12.1 points on average. Additionally, the Cowboys are 25-12 ATS in home games after a game where they failed to cover the spread under their current coach and have won these contests by 12.4 points on average. Pound Oklahoma State.

4* MAJOR BIG TEN *BLOOD BATH* on Ohio State -8

Bottom Line: This is a letdown spot for Indiana as it heads out on the road following a big win over Maryland. This is just the 4th true road game of the season for the Hoosiers, so based on the line, odds makers are telling us Indiana's record wouldn't be nearly as good had they stepped out on the road a few more times. This is a big revenge spot for Ohio State, which lost by 3 at Indiana earlier this month. The Buckeyes are 12-1 at home on the season where they have a ridiculous 28.3-point average margin of victory. Indiana is 14-30 ATS in road games following a cover under Crean, including 5-14 ATS in this spot the last 3 seasons. Ohio State is 26-16 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points under Matta.

5* WISEGUY BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota -5

Bottom Line: Illinois has been a completely different team away from home and is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 road/neutral floor games. The 6 SU losses during this span all came by at least 7 points. Minnesota has been at its best at home where it is 10-2 with an average winning margin of 21.0 points. Minnesota is off to a 1-6 start in Big Ten play and was upset on this floor by Illinois last season so it will not be lacking any incentive. Pound the Golden Gophers.

4* MAJOR on Nebraska-Omaha -1.5

Bottom Line: Denver has really struggled on the road where it is 1-6 this season. It is 11-25 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less or pickem under coach Scott. Nebraska-Omaha has lost 5 straight and was swept by Denver last season so it will be very, very hungry.

4* MAJOR MOUNTAIN WEST MASSACRE on Air Force +6.5

Bottom Line: Huge letdown spot for Boise State following a 50-point win over San Jose State. Huge bounce-back spot for Air Force following a 32-point loss to San Diego State. Boise Sate is 0-9 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. It is 0-7 ATS off a home win of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

4* MAJOR on IUPUI -2

Bottom Line: Terrible spot for South Dakota, which is playing its 3rd consecutive road game and 2nd in 3 days. IUPUI is off a loss but is an outstanding 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games following defeat. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.

4* MAJOR BIG EAST *BLOOD BATH* on Xavier -12

Bottom Line: This may seem like a lot of points but Xavier is 10-0 at home on the season and has won these games by an average of 18.3 points. DePaul upset the Musketeers in the first meeting, but they are 12-3 ATS when out for revenge for a road loss over the last 3 seasons.

4* MAJOR BIG TEN *BLOOD BATH* on Indiana -1.5

Bottom Line: This line opened as a pickem and has since been bet up which is the right move. The Hoosiers are 6-0 ATS as a home dog of 3 points or less or pickem under coach Crean and have won these 6 by an average of 8.0 points. While this trend is in play because of the opening line, it is also worth mentioning that Indiana is 26-9 ATS at when the line is +3 to -3 since 1997. It is 16-6 ATS during this span as a home favorite of 3 points or less or pickem. Maryland went off from deep in its rout of Michigan State, but it is 0-7 ATS in road games after a game where it made 50% of its 3 point shots or better under coach Turgeon, and it has lost these 7 by an average of 17.5 points.

5* WISEGUY BIG EAST GAME OF THE WEEK on Seton Hall -10

Bottom Line: The Pirates are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games while the Blue Demons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games. The Pirates are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall, 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. The Pirates are also 8-1 ATS as a favorite this season. Seton Hall is off its first home loss of the season, which can't be sitting well. Plus, it lost its last meeting with DePaul so it will have no problem getting up for this one. The Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 home games against the Blue Demons with the wins coming by an average of 12.4 points so there is plenty of value in Seton Hall here.

4* MAJOR BIG TEN *BLOOD BATH* on Illinois -3

Bottom Line: This is a highly motivated spot for the Fighting Illini. Illinois just suffered its first home loss of the season and will be looking to bounce back tonight. It gets further incentive from a home loss to Purdue in last season's meeting. The Illini is 8-1 at home where it has a nice win over Maryland, so it has shown the ability to take down a better team on this floor than the one it will see tonight. The Fighting Illini are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games versus teams with a losing road record.

4* MAJOR CBB *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Nevada +1

Bottom Line: Look for the Wolf Pack to come storming back following an ugly 98-42 loss at Colorado State. They are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 90 points in their previous game and 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss of more than 20 points. Nevada has also been a nice play in games odds makers expect to be close. It is 10-2 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.

5* WISEGUY CBB *BEST BET* on South Carolina -6.5

Bottom Line: The Gamecocks check in having lost 3 of their last 4. They have also dropped 14 in a row to the Volunteers. Yet, they are laying quite a few points tonight. Clearly books want the money coming in on Tennessee. We won't take the bait. It is significant that the Gamecocks have been installed as favorites since the favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. I fully expect this trend to continue. Look for South Carolina to finally break through against the Vols.

4* MAJOR A-10 *SUREFIRE* on Davidson -2.5

Bottom Line: Look for Davidson to hand Dayton its first conference loss. The Wildcats are 8-0 at where they are winning by an average of 24.9 points. Dayton has found its way into the Top 25 behind 8 straight victories. It has even covered the spread in its last 5 but is 0-8 ATS in road games after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite since 1997 and has lost these by an average of 10.0 points. Davidson is 7-1 ATS as a favorite this season.

5* WISEGUY SUN BELT GAME OF THE MONTH Louisiana-Lafayette -7.5

Bottom Line: Louisiana-Lafayette got off to a 4-0 start in Sun Belt play but has since lost its last 2. Despite the losses, it can pull even with UL Monroe for first place in the league with a win here, and I expect it to take care of business. The Ragin' Cajuns are 7-1 in their last 8 at home versus Monroe with the 7 wins coming by an average of 15.7 points. Despite the bad loss to South Alabama last game, ULL's high scoring output is a good sign. The Ragin' Cajuns are 6-0 ATS in home games the last 2 seasons after scoring 80 points or more last game. They have won by a ridiculous average margin of 25.3 points in these contests. Pound ULL.

4* MAJOR ESPN2 *PRIMETIME PUNISHER* on UConn +5

Bottom Line: Look for UConn to bounce back strong off a loss at Tulsa. The Huskies were upset at home by Stanford last season and will draw added motivated from that defeat. The Huskies are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games following a loss and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games. They're also 6-0 ATS the last 2 seasons in road games that occur 15 games or more into the season versus teams with a win percentage of 60-80%, and they have defeated these teams by an average of 9.0 points.

5* WISEGUY SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on Missouri pk

Bottom Line: Missouri was buried Tuesday at Kentucky, but it is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 following a loss, 4-1 ATS in its last 5 following a loss of more than 20 points and 3-0-1 ATS in its last 4 at home. The Vols are a poor 3-11-1 ATS on the season, including 1-4-1 ATS in road/neutral court games. They're also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Saturday games. These teams have met 3 times since Missouri joined the SEC and the home team is 3-0. Pound the Tigers.

5* WISEGUY PAC-12 PUNISHER OF THE WEEK on Arizona State +5

Bottom Line: I like ASU catching points at home in a motivated spot against an overvalued Utah squad that I expect to show some rust following a 7-day layoff. Playing home dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are off a cover where they lost straight up as an underdog has resulted in a 24-6 ATS record the last 3 seasons if they are up against an opponent that's off a home blowout win by 20 points or more. The home team is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings with an average winning margin of 11.4 points. ASU's 4 home wins during this stretch have come by an average of 4.8 points so I have no problem taking the points in a game it should have a chance to win outright.

4* MAJOR BIG 10 *BLOOD BATH* (ESPN2) on Wisconsin -14.5

Bottom Line: Nebraska is off back-to-back double-digit wins at home but things haven't gone as smoothly for the Huskers on the road. They are 1-8 ATS in road games after a win of 10 points or more under coach Miles. They also catch Wisconsin at a bad time. The Badgers are off a bad loss at Rutgers and will be out for blood as a result. I expect an inspired performance from Frank Kaminsky in his return and for Bronson Koenig to step up for the injured Traevon Jackson. The Cornhuskers are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. They are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall versus a team with a winning percentage above .600.

4* MAJOR CBB *ODDSMAKER ERROR* on Florida Atlantic +4

Bottom Line: FAU isn't getting the respect it deserves at home. The Owls have won 4 of the last 6 meetings with only 1 of the defeats coming by more than 4 points. This has been a highly competitive series in which the underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Owls are 5-1 at home on the season with the lone loss coming by just 2 points. WKU hasn't been on the road since Dec. 13 and is just 2-7 ATS in its last 9 road games.

5* WISEGUY BIG EAST GAME OF THE WEEK on St. John's +3

Bottom Line: The Red Storm has lost 3 in a row but has had a week off to get right. I expect them to right the ship tonight. The Johnnies were pathetic defensively last game, allowing Villanova to shoot 55.7%. Rest assured the defense will be much better here. St. John's is 10-0 ATS in road games after allowing a shooting percentage of 55% or higher since 1997, and it has won these games by an average of 6.7 points. Additionally, when the line is +3 to -3 for a Wednesday game, playing against teams off 2 consecutive close wins of 5 points or less over conference opponents has resulted in a 22-5 (81.5%) ATS record the last 5 seasons. Pound St. John's.

4* MAJOR CBB BAILOUT (ESPNU) on Boise State -5

Bottom Line: UNLV pounded San Jose State last game, but the Runnin' Rebels are 10-23 ATS off a conference win under Dave Rice, including 4-13 ATS if the win came by 10 points or more. Additionally, 15 games or more into the season in a matchup of teams that commit 14.5 turnovers per game or less, home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points are 75-37 ATS the last 5 seasons if they shoot 45-47.5% and are facing a team that hold opponents to 40% or worse shooting.

4* MAJOR SEC *SUREFIRE* (ESPNU) on South Carolina -4

Bottom Line: South Carolina has lost back-to-back games since winning 7 straight, and that actually bodes well for us tonight. The Gamecocks are 6-0 ATS in home games after losing 2 straight games or more over the last 2 seasons. They have won these 6 by 8.3 points on average.

5* WISEGUY CBB *BEST BET* on Tennessee +3.5

Bottom Line: Arkansas has covered the spread in 3 straight. However, it is 0-6 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games under Mike Anderson and has lost these games by 8.7 points on average. Arkansas does an excellent job of sharing the basketball, but Donnie Tyndall's teams are 7-0 ATS all-time in home games versus good passing teams that average 16.0 assists per game or more. They have won these 7 by an average of 15.3 points. Additionally, Arkansas is 15-30 ATS as a road favorite or pickem since 1997 while Tennessee is 30-8 ATS as a home underdog or pickem since 1997. Pound the Vols.

4* MAJOR ACC *BLOOD BATH* on Syracuse -9.5

Bottom Line: Florida State has struggled on the road where it is 0-6 ATS in its last 6. It's off a win and cover against Virginia Tech but is 0-5-1 ATS in its last 6 games following an ATS win. Syracuse is a bad matchup for the Seminoles because they are a poor perimeter shooting team. They are shooting only 27.5% from 3-point range on the season. It takes a zone buster to stretch the Syracuse matchup-zone to open up driving lanes and high-post entries, and the Noles have only one outside threat. That makes it easy on the Orange. It's important to note that 15 games or more into the season FSU is just 2-14 ATS the last 3 seasons versus teams that are outscoring the opposition by 8.0 PPG or more. In other words, they've struggled in conference play against top-notch competition. Bet the Orange.

5* WISEGUY Summit League GAME OF THE MONTH on Nebraska-Omaha -1.5

Bottom Line: Nebraska-Omaha is 7-0 ATS lifetime under coach Hansen after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games and has won these by an average of 4.4 points. Additionally, when the line is +3 to -3 plays against road teams that are off a cover as a double-digit favorite and are playing their 3rd game in 7 days has resulted in a 36-11 ATS record the last 5 seasons. This system is already 2-0 ATS this season. Pound UNO.

4* MAJOR BIG EAST *BLOOD BATH* on Butler -2

Bottom Line: We picked up a big win with Xavier Wednesday, but now we'll go against the Musketeers as they head back out on the road where they have struggled. The Musketeers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games while the Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 at home. Butler is off a loss and lost both meetings with Xavier last season so it will be highly focused. The Musketeers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win while the Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss.

4* MAJOR BIG TEN *BLOOD BATH* on Nebraska -9.5

Bottom Line: Nebraska has been outstanding in league play in bounce back spots. It is 16-5 ATS off a loss to conference foe over the last 3 seasons, including 9-1 ATS during this span off 2 straight losses to conference opponents.

5* WISEGUY OHIO VALLEY GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee Tech +6.5

Bottom Line: Now's the time to fade Murray State, which has won its last 9 games. The Racers are on an 8-19 ATS slide after 9 or more consecutive wins. Murray State put the hurt on Tennessee Tech last season as it was able to control the glass, but this year's Murray State team hasn't been nearly as good on the boards. The Racers are averaging just 33 rebounds per game, and that number drops to 30 in games played away from home. The Golden Eagles, on the other hand, are averaging 38 boards per game. This number goes up to 41 at home where they are 6-0 on the season. Tennessee Tech is 12-1 ATS the last 2 seasons versus teams that average 33 or less rebounds per game. Pound Tennessee Tech.

5* WISEGUY BIG TEN GAME OF THE MONTH on Illinois +2

Bottom Line: This is a big bounce back spot for Illinois following consecutive defeats at Michigan and Ohio State. This is a big letdown spot for Maryland following big wins over Michigan State and Minnesota. Illinois is a perfect 7-0 at home where it is winning by an average of 30.0 points. It has two more Big Ten road games following this one, which makes this game that much more important. Rayvonte Rice is out with a hand injury, but I fully expect this deep, talented group to step up. Pound Illinois.

5* WISEGUY BIG EAST GAME OF THE MONTH on Xavier -7

Bottom Line: This is a big bounce back spot for Xavier following a bad loss at DePaul. It's also a big revenge spot for the Musketeers after getting swept by Seton Hall last season. Additionally, this is a big letdown spot for the Pirates who hit the road off back-to-back big home wins over St. John's and Villanova. Xavier is a perfect 8-0 at home where it is winning by an average of 21 points and has notable double-digit wins over Alabama and Georgetown. Pound Xavier.

5* WISEGUY CBB *BEST BET* BLOWOUT on Houston -7

Bottom Line: This is not the night to back Central Florida. The Knights are 0-8 ATS on Tuesday night under coach Jones. Houston, on the other hand, is on an 18-6 ATS run in Tuesday night home games. The Cougars are 10-2 ATS as a home favorite or pickem over the last three seasons. They are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 home games, and the favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Pound Houston.

5* WISEGUY CBB *BEST BET* on Troy State +3.5

Bottom Line: Texas-Arlington is 0-8 ATS the last 3 seasons off a home win of 10 points or more and has lost these games by 7.1 points on average. Troy is 6-0 ATS after a blowout loss of 20 points or more over the last 3 seasons and has won these games by an average of 2.0 points. Pound Troy State.

4* MAJOR on Charleston -3.5

Bottom Line: James Madison is off a strong performance over Towson where it held the Tigers to just 52 points. However, JM is 0-6 ATS the last 2 seasons after holding an opponent to 55 points or less and has lost by an average of 8.4 points in these games.

4* MAJOR on Virginia Military +2.5

Bottom Line: VMI is 3-1 at home while Mercer is 1-5 on the road. The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 following a cover while the Keydets are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS defeat.

4* MAJOR on Towson -3

Bottom Line: I'm fading Elon in a spot it hasn't performed well in. The Phoenix are on a 17-28 ATS slide when playing win one or no days of rest.

4* MAJOR on Fairfield +1

Bottom Line: The Broncs are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a win. The Stags are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss and 4-0-2 ATS in their last 6 versus Metro Atlantic Athletic opponents. The underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.

4* MAJOR on Drexel +5.5

Bottom Line: Playing against road teams that are off a win of 20 points or more in conference play has resulted in a 30-9 ATS record since 1997 if they are up against an opponent that's off an upset loss of 10 points or more at home. This system is a perfect 5-0 ATS the last 3 seasons.

4* MAJOR BIG EAST *BLOOD BATH* on Marquette -1.5

Bottom Line: Look for Marquette to bounce back strong against Providence following a tough loss at DePaul. The Golden Eagles are a perfect 7-0 at home versus Providence since they began competing in the Big East Conference. None of these wins have come by fewer than 7 points. Additionally, when the line is +3 to -3 playing against road teams that have beaten the spread by 18 or more points total in their last 3 games has resulted in a 19-1 ATS record the last 3 seasons if they are up against a team that has gone under the total by 18 or more total points in their last 3 games. Bet Marquette.

4* MAJOR NON-CONFERENCE *MARQUEE MATCHUP* (CBS) on Florida -9.5

Bottom Line: This game is all about revenge for Florida, which lost to UConn in last season's Final Four. The Gators are an impressive 114-89 ATS as a home favorite or pickem under coach Donovan, including 39-27 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. Florida is on a 65-38 ATS run after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games.

5* WISEGUY BIG EAST GAME OF THE MONTH on DePaul +4.5

Bottom Line: Marquette is 0-7 ATS the last 3 seasons in road games following 2 consecutive double-digit wins and has lost these games by an average of 7.0 points. Additionally, DePaul is 14-5 ATS in home games against teams with win percentages of 60-80% under coach Purnell. Pound DePaul.

4* MAJOR CBB *BEST BET* on Penn +11.5

Bottom Line: LaSalle is 2-10 ATS since 1997 after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games. The Explorers are 4-11-2 ATS in their last 17 versus Ivy League opponents and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games versus a team with a losing road record. They are 10-24 ATS in non-conference home games under coach Giannini and 27-41 ATS as a home favorite or pickem under their current coach. The road team is 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Playing road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points that are an average shooting team (42.5-45%) playing against a good defensive team (40-42.5%) has resulted in a 70-33 ATS record since 1997, provided the play on team allowed a shooting percentage of 55% or higher last time out.

4* MAJOR CBB HOME COURT *SUREFIRE* on Denver -4.5

Bottom Line: After giving Colorado State all it wanted, Denver suffered a letdown and lost to lowly Bryant. It was the kind of loss that gets the blood boiling. The Pioneers lost at St. Joe's by 1 points last season so they will draw added motivation from that. Home court has been good to Denver. It is 56-36 ATS in lined home games under coach Scott, including 23-10 ATS as a home favorites of 6 points or less or pickem. Additionally, Scott's teams are 7-0 ATS all-time in home games following a game where they shot 20% or worse from beyond the arc. They've won these seven by an average of 9.3 points.

4* MAJOR CBB DOUBLE DIGIT BLOOD BATH on BYU -10

Bottom Line: This may seem like a lot of points for 10-4 BYU to be laying against 10-3 Portland, but this is a tough spot for Portland. The Pilots are playing their 2nd road game in 3 days. BYU is also playing a 2nd game in 3 days but has been at home the entire time, and that makes quick turnarounds much easier. The Cougars are 12-4 ATS in home games when playing a 2nd game in 3 days under coach Rose, and they have won these games by 23.0 points on average. BYU is 5-0 in its last 5 home games versus Portland with these wins coming by an average of 15.0 points.

4* MAJOR CBB *BEST BET* on Monmouth -2.5

Bottom Line: Monmouth is coming off a pathetic performance against Saint Francis-New York. However, playing favorites that return all 5 starters and are off a game where they were held to 60 points or fewer has resulted in a 161-97 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Rutgers defeated Saint Francis-NY at home earlier this season by 3 points yet it is an underdog to a team that was just crushed by the same opponent? It appears odds makers are begging for money on Rutgers. Take Monmouth.

4* MAJOR CBB *BEST BET* on Niagara +2

Bottom Line: Off back-to-back wins over Mississippi State and Marshall, Arkansas State will be looking right past a Niagara team it blew out last season. I'm playing the revenge angle here as this is the first home game for the Purple Eagles since Dec. 6, and they'll be ready to get their revenge in front of their home crowd. Arkansas State is 19-36 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite under coach John Brady, including 6-17 ATS the last 3 seasons. 

4* MAJOR CBB *BEST BET* on Miami -1.5

Bottom Line: Look for Miami to bounce back strong following an ugly loss to Eastern Kentucky. The Hurricanes managed only 44 points on 29.3% shooting, but they are on a 13-1 ATS run when playing away from home after a game where they made 33% of their shots or less. They are on a 6-0 ATS run in games played away from home after being held to 55 points or less. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss.

4* MAJOR CBB *BEST BET* on Georgia State -18.5

Bottom Line: The Panthers will be highly motivated following a loss at Old Dominion, and they'll show no mercy to a So. Miss team they lost to last season. The Panthers have played just 2 home games this season and won both handily. The 24-point win over Wisconsin-Green Bay was very impressive. So. Miss is 0-3 on the road this season and has been smacked by 23 and 20 points in its last 2 road games. The Panthers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400.

4* MAJOR CBB *BEST BET* on Drexel +7

The Key: Penn State is getting a little too much respect in this neutral floor contest. The Nittany Lions have been a terrible investment at 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games overall. They are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games. These teams have played two like opponents this season and had very similar results. Drexel defeated Cornell by 2 points, Penn State defeated Cornell by 1. Drexel lost to USC by 2 points, Penn State defeated USC by 2 points. The results of those games show me this line is being inflated due to Penn State's overall record (10-2) versus Drexel's overall record (2-7). Grab the points.

4* MAJOR CBB *BEST BET* on Saint Mary's +7

Bottom Line: Look for St. Mary's to give St. John's all it wants and more tonight. The Gaels got caught in a sandwich last game, losing to Northern Arizona, as they were off a big win at Creighton and had this contest on deck. The loss assures us they will be even more motivated. The Gaels are 11-3 ATS off a home loss of 3 points or less under coach Bennett. There is also another factor at play that can't be ignored. St. John's is 3-19 ATS after committing 8 turnovers or less under coach Lavin.

4* MAJOR CBB *BEST BET* on South Florida +6

Bottom Line: Seton Hall is being overvalued here because it is 8-0 ATS in lined games this season. That's the type of streak the public takes notice of and the type of streak the books like to use against the public. The Pirates are 8-1 but have been aided by a schedule that has included just 1 road game to this point. The home team is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. It is also 8-2 in the last 10 with neither of the losses coming by more than 5 points. That creates a perfect 10-0 matchup trend given the number we are getting here.

4* MAJOR CBB *BEST BET* on New Mexico State +13.5

Bottom Line: Baylor is being overvalued at home. The Bears haven't played since Dec. 9, and I expect to see some rust. The Bears are 0-6 ATS in their last six versus Western Athletic Conference opponents. The Aggies are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games, 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS loss and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games versus a team with a winning record.

4* MAJOR CBB *BEST BET* on Northern Arizona +14

Bottom Line: This is a sandwich game for St. Mary's. The Gaels are coming off a big win over Creighton and they have another big showdown at St. John's on deck so I don't think they'll give Northern Arizona their full attention. The Gaels are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a cover. The Lumberjacks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning record. Take the points.

4* MAJOR CBB *BEST BET* on Austin Peay -2.5

Bottom Line:Austin Peay just played Saturday, but it is 36-25 ATS in home games when playing with 1 or no days of rest under coach Loos. The Governors will be lacking no motivation after a bad loss to Lipscomb. They are 28-17 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses under Loos. The Troy Trojans are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a win. Bet Austin Peay.

4* MAJOR CBB *BEST BET* on Fordham +16

Bottom Line: Fordham will be the more motivated team Sunday afternoon as it looks to save face following last year's 104-58 loss to St. John's. Prior to that defeat, Fordham had covered 4 straight against the Red Storm while playing them to within 11 points in the previous 3. The Rams are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 non-conference games while the Red Storm are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 versus Atlantic 10 foes. Steve Lavin's teams are a miserable 63-94 ATS as a favorite since 1997.

5* WISEGUY CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on VCU -7

Bottom Line: This is a bad scheduling spot for Northern Iowa, playing 2 road games in 4 days. VCU has had a week to prepare, and it has lacked no focus as it looks to pay the Panthers back for last season's upset loss in Cedar Falls. Playing against road underdogs or pickems in the 1st 10 games of the season that return all 5 starters and held their last opponent to 55 points or less has resulted in a 29-12 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting this scenario have lost by an average of 11.9 points. Pound VCU.

4* MAJOR CBB *BEST BET* on Texas Southern +26

Bottom Line: Texas Southern has had over a week to get ready for the Gators and will also benefit from having already stepped on the floor with Indiana, Tennessee, SMU and Baylor. Texas Southern had performed well against quality competition before getting kicked at Baylor last time out, but that loss works in our favor. Road teams off a road loss where they were held to 60 points or less, provided they have a win percentage of 20% or worse on the season, has resulted in a 93-49 (65.5%) ATS record the last 5 seasons. The Gators are off a 38-point win over Yale but are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a win, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a win of more than 20 points and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.

4* MAJOR CBB DOUBLE DIGIT *BLOOD BATH* on George Washington -10

Bottom Line: This may seem like books are asking too much of GW against a 6-1 DePaul team, but I don't think so. This is the first road trip outside Chicago this season, and that makes this a tough spot for the Blue Demons. DePaul has won 4 in a row, all by 11 points or more, but that actually plays in our favor. Playing against road dogs or pickems that have won 3 in a row by 10 points or more has resulted in a 90-47 ATS record the last 17 years, provided they average 76 or more ppg and are playing a team that allows 63 or less ppg. DePaul is yet to see a team that can get after it defensively the way GW does. Pound the Colonials.

4* MAJOR CBB *BEST BET* on Fairleigh Dickinson +18.5

Bottom Line: Riding high off a big win at Syracuse to jump into the Top 25, St. John's won't give Fairleigh Dickinson its entire focus. Road underdogs in the 1st 10 games of the season that return 2 starters and were held to 25 points or less in the 1st half last game are 53-25 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Johnnies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games and 20-31 ATS when laying points with Lavin as head man.

5* WISEGUY CBB *BEST BET* on UMKC +23.5

Bottom Line: Off a dominant performance against Arkansas and with a big rivalry game in Iowa City on deck, Iowa State will get caught looking past a UMKC squad it demolished by 59 points last season. The Kangaroos are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. Iowa State is on a 10-22 ATS slide versus teams with a win percentage of 20-40%. Playing against double-digit road underdogs in the first 10 games of the season that were held to 25 points or less in the 1st half of their last game, provided they return just 2 starters, has resulted in a 66-36 ATS record the last 5 seasons. Take the points.

5* WISEGUY CBB *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* on Wisc.-Green Bay +10.5

Bottom Line: This is a very dangerous game for Miami. Wisc.-GB is an experienced team, and it will be livid after getting murdered by Georgia State. The Phoenix return 4 starters from a team that defeated Virginia last season. They are 29-10 ATS when playing with 1 day of rest or none under coach Wardle and 15-6 ATS under their current coach when playing a 2nd road game in 3 days. Don't be surprised if they shock the Hurricanes.

4* MAJOR CBB *SUREFIRE* on Florida International +29.5

Bottom Line: Riding high off a big win over Ohio State, motivation will be an issue for Louisville as it takes on an FIU squad it defeated by 29 last season. The Cardinals are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 lined home games and just 27-40 ATS in home games in December under Pitino. The Golden Panthers are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall, 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 road games, 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 versus the ACC and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 20 points.

4* MAJOR CBB *ODDSMAKER ERROR* on La Salle +11

Bottom Line: The odds makers have missed their mark here. La Salle is 27-14 ATS all-time as a double-digit underdog under coach Giannini. Additionally, playing December double-digit dogs that are off an upset loss has resulted in a 223-141 (61.3%) ATS record since 1997.

4* MAJOR CBB LETDOWN GAME OF THE WEEK on George Mason +4

Bottom Line: Expect a letdown from Old Dominion in its first true road game of the season following Saturday's big upset win over VCU. Old Dominion shot the lights out from 3-point range in their last game, but teams headed up by Jeff Jones are 0-7 ATS in road games after a game where they made 50% of their 3-point shots or better since 1997. Teams headed up by Paul Hewitt are 24-11 ATS all-time as a home underdog of 6 points or less or pickem.

5* WISEGUY CBB *UNDERDOG SHOCKER* GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana State +7.5

Bottom Line: Indiana State is difficult to beat at home and is very difficult to defeat by a wide margin. By my count, the Sycamores have lost by fewer than this number in 41 of their last 45 home games. Home court has been huge in this matchup with the home team going 3-0 in the last 3, 5-1 in the last 6 and 10-2 in the last 12. Only 1 time during this span has the home team lost by more than 7.5 points. Pound Indiana State.

4* MAJOR CBB *BLOOD BATH* on Kansas State -13

Bottom Line: K-State has lost its last 2 with the most recent being an ugly 70-47 loss to Pitt. I expect the Wildcats to come storming back at home. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss or more than 20 points. They are also 8-0 ATS in home games versus teams that average 77ppg or more under coach Weber.

4* MAJOR CBB *BEST BET* on Oral Roberts +5.5

Bottom Line: This game is about revenge for Oral Roberts, which still has 6 players on the roster from the team that lost to Weber State in the 2013 CIT Quarterfinals. The Wildcats are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a cover. Road underdogs or pickems with a win percentage of .200 to .400 that are playing their 3rd game in a week and are playing another team with a losing record are 296-194 ATS since 1997.

4* MAJOR CBB *BEST BET* on Western Michigan +2.5

Bottom Line: Western Mich lost by 7 at San Diego Nov. 24, but I expect it to have its revenge in this neutral court rematch. The Broncos are 12-3 ATS the last 3 seasons when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent, winning by an average of 9.3 points in these contests. They are also 11-3 ATS the last 3 seasons in games when the line is +3 to -3, winning these contests by an average of 8.2 points.

4* MAJOR CBB *BEST BET* on George Washington +3

Bottom Line: Seton Hall is 4-0 SU and ATS but has played a soft schedule to this point. It takes a big step up in competition here and will likely suffer its first loss as a result. George Washington has stepped on the floor with Virginia and will benefit from taking on such a high-caliber opponent. Seton Hall is 3-11 ATS the last 3 seasons in home games versus good teams that are outscoring opponents by 4.0 ppg or more on the season. The Pirates have lost to such teams by 5.5 points on average.

4* MAJOR CBB *BEST BET* on Monmouth +16

Bottom Line: Playing road underdogs of 10-19.5 points in the first 10 game of the season that return 2 more starters than their opponent has resulted in a 40-15 ATS record since 1997, provided they were outscored by 4.0 ppg or more last season. These teams have been underdogs of 15.0 point on average but have lost by only 12.2 points. This system illustrates the way teams that weren't very good last year are undervalued early in a new season.

4* MAJOR CBB *PUBLIC MASSACRE* on Cleveland State +23

Bottom Line: This is a flat spot for Louisville. The Cardinals just defeated Savannah State by 61 points. That same Savannah State team defeated Cleveland State by 4 points 2 days earlier. With that knowledge and a little time off for Thanksgiving after this game, I don't see Louisville being focused enough to cover this number. The Vikings are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games versus a team with a winning home record.

4* MAJOR CBB *BLOOD BATH* on Nebraska -15

Bottom Line: Nebraska Omaha just upset Marquette on the road so there's no chance that Nebraska will be overlooking the Mavericks, especially off a loss at Rhode Island. The Cornhuskers are on a 9-0 ATS run in home games against teams with a winning record. Omaha is 1-11 ATS the last 3 seasons versus teams that give up 64 ppg or less and has lost to these teams by 19.4 points on average.

4* MAJOR CBB *BLOOD BATH* on San Francisco -6.5

Bottom Line: This is a letdown spot for Hawaii as it is off a big upset win over Pitt and is playing away from home for the first time this season. The Dons are an impressive 38-15-1 ATS in their last 54 games versus a team with a winning percentage above 60%. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a win and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games. The Dons are 10-2 ATS since 1997 following 2 straight wins of 15 points or more.

4* MAJOR CBB *BEST BET* on Florida Atlantic +15

Bottom Line: Georgia is 0-6 ATS in home games after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite under coach Fox. The Bulldogs have lost these games by an average of 1.1 points. The Bulldogs are also 0-5 ATS in their last 5 versus Conference USA.

4* MAJOR CBB *BEST BET* on UTEP -5.5

Bottom Line: UTEP lost both of last season's meetings with New Mexico State so it will be highly motivated here. The Miners are a phenomenal 35-16-2 ATS in their last 53 games overall, including 14-3 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games. NM State hasn't defended that well in the early going, which bodes well for us six UTEP is on a 6-0 ATS run versus teams allowing opponents to shoot 45% or better from the field. The Aggies haven't been sharing the ball well either, which is significant because UTEP is on an 8-0 ATS run versus teams averaging 12 assists per game or less.

4* MAJOR CBB *SUREFIRE* on Boston +30.5

Bottom Line: After a completely dominant 32-point win over Kansas, there's no way the Wildcats will take Boston U seriously. The Wildcats are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 20 points. They are 9-26 ATS under coach Cal after game where they allowed a shooting pct. of 33% or less. The Terriers are 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 road games.

4* MAJOR CBB *SUREFIRE* on Drexel +10

Bottom Line: Playing against neutral court favorites or pickems that averaged 53 or less shots per game last season and are off a game where they made 50% or more of their 3-point shots has resulted in a 31-7 ATS record since 1997. Plus, this is a letdown spot for Miami following a big win at Florida.

4* Major CBB *ODDSMAKER ERROR* on Montana +17

Bottom Line: Boise State is being overvalued at home as it so often is. The Broncos went 2-11 ATS as a home favorite or pickem last season and are on a 0-7 ATS skid at home following a game where they covered the spread. Grab the points.

4* Major CBB Double Digit *BLOOD BATH* on Tulsa -7

Bottom Line: Look for Tulsa to be highly motivated after getting upset at Oral Roberts in its opener. The Golden Hurricane are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games. Lousiana-Lafayette made easy work of an inferior opponent in its opener but is 1-9 ATS  in road games after scoring 85 points or more over the last 3 seasons. TULSA is also on a 14-5 ATS run as a favorite. Lay the points at the Golden Hurricane take this one by double digits.

4* Major NCAAB *BEST BET* on Hampton +22

Bottom Line: The Orange took care of business in their opener with a 47-point win over Kennesaw State but are now being overvalued as a result. The Orange are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a win of more than 20 points and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Pirates are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Grab the points as Hampton keeps this one closer than the odds makers think.

4* Major CBB Opening Night *MARQUEE MATCHUP* (ESPN) on Minnesota +8

Bottom Line: Minnesota enters the season with tons of confidence and momentum after capturing the NIT championship. Both teams play a similar style, and Minnesota has the veteran guards, seniors Andre Hollins (13.6 points) and DeAndre Mathieu (12.0), to handle Louisville's pressure. The Golden Gophers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games, and the Cardinals are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 versus the Big Ten.