Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-04-22 | North Carolina v. Kansas -4 | Top | 69-72 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on KANSAS. The Tar Heels ended up having Duke's number. The Jayhawks will be a different story. Indeed, Kansas does it all. Deep, talented, experienced and well-coached, the Jayhawks are also peaking at the right time. They followed up an absolutely dominant second half (47-15!) against another ACC team (Miami) by dismantling a good Villanova team. The Wildcats were never really in the game. With that victory, the Jayhawks are 7-2 ATS their last nine, when laying points. They're also 3-1 ATS their past four, as neutral court favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. Both teams score. UNC averages 78.1. Kansas averages 78.3. Note that the Heels are still only 3-6 ATS against teams which score 77 or more. As mentioned, the Jayhawks also defend. Kansas allows 67.3 ppg, 67.8 ppg on the road. The Tar Heels, on the other hand, allow 71.1 ppg and a high 75.1 ppg on the road. In my bracket, I had Kansas winning it all; I believe that the Jayhawks are playing at a different level right now. I expect their superior defense to be the difference. Look for the Jayhawks, 11-6 ATS their last 17 tournament championship games, to become the national champs, covering the relatively small number along the way. |
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04-02-22 | Villanova v. Kansas OVER 132 | Top | 65-81 | Win | 100 | 108 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on Villanova/Kansas OVER the total. I had these two facing each other here in my bracket and I backed both of them in their last game. So, this matchup doesn't surprise me. The Wildcats have been particularly good to me. In addition to winning with them against Houston, I successfully backed them in their opening win over Delaware. Additionally, I cashed with the 'under' in the Villanova win over Michigan. So, I'm well aware and have commented about how stingy the Wildcats can be. The Jayhawks are better than any of the other teams the Wildcats have faced though. I feel that the Wildcats will be hard pressed to keep them below 70. The Jayhawks, who have faced their share of tough defenses, average 78.3 ppg and they hit 47.8% of their field goals. The latter mark ranks in the top 20 in the country. They've scored at least 70 in eight of their last nine games, scoring 66 in the other. Note that no team all year, a span of 38 games, has kept them below 62 points. The Wildcats will get theirs, too. Their last game was against Houston; that one was going to be a defensive battle from the start. They'd scored at least 63 points in 18 of their previous 19 games though. This veteran team, which rarely misses at the line, won't go away. The low-scoring games will have many quick to back the 'under' and that sentiment has rewarded us with an extra low line. Line value. The OVER is 8-4-1 the past 13 times that Kansas played a game with an O/U line in the 130s and 5-1-1 the past seven times that Kansas was off a game where it allowed 60 or fewer points. With both teams fighting (scoring) right up until the final buzzer, expect those stats to improve on Saturday. |
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03-31-22 | Xavier v. Texas A&M OVER 137.5 | Top | 73-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
I'm playing on Xavier/Texas A&M OVER the total. Admittedly, the Aggies have been playing some pretty stingy defense to get here. They enter this game on an 'under' streak. That's worked into the line though as we're working with quite a low O/U number. Facing an Xavier team which is currently putting up a lot of points, I believe it'll prove to be too low. The Musketeers have scored at least 72 points in six straight games. During that 6-game span, they averaged a whopping 80.33 points. The Aggies have scored 72 or more in three of their past four and at least 67 points in 12 of their past 13. The OVER is 8-2 the past 10 times that Xavier played on a neutral court and that includes a 4-1 OVER mark when playing a neutral site game with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range. Expect those stats to improve Thursday evening. |
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03-29-22 | Washington State v. Texas A&M OVER 132 | Top | 56-72 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on Washington State/Texas A&M OVER the total. Recent low-scoring results have rewarded us with quite a low O/U number for tonight's game between the Cougars and the Aggies. While I respect these defenses, I believe it'll prove to be too low. The Cougars have scored 75 and 77 their past two games. They average 71.9. The Aggies have scored 74, 75 and 67 points their past three games. They average 72.7. One important thing to note about these teams is that they can both score on the road, too. Some teams see their offensive numbers take a big dip when playing away from home. These teams do not. In fact, the Cougars actually average more points (72.1) on the road than than they do at home. Likewise, the Aggies average more than 70 ppg on the road. Not surprisingly, both teams also allow more points on the road, than they do at home. Texas A&M has seen 13 of 18 away games finish above the number. Look for this one to also find its way above the low number, the OVER improving to 7-2 the past nine times that the Aggies were off game where they allowed 60 or less. |
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03-28-22 | Coastal Carolina v. South Alabama -2.5 | Top | 69-68 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on SOUTH ALABAMA. While the Chanticleers deserve credit to be still playing, their season comes to an end this evening. The Jaguars already went to Coastal Carolina and beat this team by three points. Now, they get to face them at home. I expect homecourt to prove significant in this all Sun Belt affair. The Jags will be without Jay Jay Chandler and possibly also without Charles Manning Jr. That's been factored into the line though as its lower than it easily could have been. Certainly, they hope Manning Jr. can go. Even without him, however, this is a deep team. They were 15-2 on this floor and visiting teams averaged less than 60 points here. While USA hits 47.9% of its field goals at home, Coastal Carolina, 5-7 away from home, only connects on 42.9% of theirs, on the road. Lay the small number and expect Coastal Carolina to fall to 7-13 ATS the past 20 times that it was a road underdog of three or fewer points. |
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03-27-22 | St. Peter's v. North Carolina OVER 136.5 | Top | 49-69 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on Saint Peter's/UNC OVER the total. There have been a lot of low-scoring games in the tournament of late; both these teams are coming off an 'under' in their last game. Those results have helped to provide us with a relatively low O/U line. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. The Tar Heels are going to put up a pretty big number. They scored 73 against a stingy UCLA defense last game. They scored 93 and 95 in the first two rounds. They average more than 78. Even if the Tar Heels only reached that average here, the Peacocks would only need to chip in about 60 of their own. I believe that this year's Cinderella team should be able to exceed that. The Peacocks have scored at least 60 in six straight games and they've also done so in 12 of their last 13. While the Peacocks were a profitable 'under' team, when listed as favorites, the OVER was 9-5 when they were underdogs, a 4-1 OVER mark the past five times that they were listed as underdogs on a neutral court. Look for those stats to improve here. |
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03-27-22 | Miami-FL v. Kansas -5.5 | Top | 50-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on KU. The Hurricanes just beat up on a team from the Big 12 and now they'll face another. The problem is that Kansas is better than Iowa State. A lot better. While Iowa State was a middle of the road team in that conference, Kansas is the best. The very well-coached Jayhawks can beat teams on both ends of the ball. They're stingy but unlike the Cyclones, they can also score. Miami scores 74.6 ppg. Kansas scores 78.4 ppg. Miami allows 70.2 ppg. Kansas allows 67.7. A closer look reveals that opposing teams connect on 45.7% of their field goals against Miami but only 41.2% of their field goals against Kansas. That's a significant difference. Speaking of differences, super senior Remy Martin off the bench ha been a difference maker for Kansas. The fact that the Jayhawks failed to cover the past two games has kept this line lower than it easily could have been. Expect Kansas to put it all together this afternoon, punching their ticket to the Final Four with a convincing double-digit victory. |
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03-26-22 | Arkansas v. Duke UNDER 148 | Top | 69-78 | Win | 100 | 30 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on Arkansas/Duke UNDER the total. Here's an excerpt of what I said about the Arkansas defense prior to the Gonzaga game: "The Razorbacks won't completely shutdown the Bulldogs but they will be able to slow them down ... Consider that no team all year (35 games) has reached the 90 mark against Arkansas. The Razorbacks have had some absolutely dominant defensive efforts along the way, too. Remember when they held Missouri to only 29 points? How about last game? They limited New Mexico State to just 48 points, a 53-48 victory. The same NMSU team had just scored 70 against UConn the previous game. Gonzaga coach Mark Few said this of the rest of the tournament and of Arkansas: 'From here on out they're all tough. They're all physical, they're all great athletes or great defenses ... They're very athletic, evenly sized and can really guard. Their defense is kind of what jumps out at you, right off the page.' .... " Sure enough, as you surely saw, the Razorbacks slowed things down and limited the high-powered Gonzaga offense to just 68 points. While Duke also has a potent offense, the Blue Devils don't score quite as many points as Gonzaga. The Blue Devils score 80.2 ppg while Gonzaga averaged 87.2. Once again, I believe that Arkansas will do its best to try and slow things down. Remember, the Blue Devils are capable of being stingy themselves; they limited their first opponent to 61 points. The UNDER is now 5-1 the past six times that the Razorbacks were neutral court underdogs. Look for those stats to improve on Saturday evening. |
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03-26-22 | Portland v. Southern Utah -3.5 | Top | 66-77 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on SOUTHERN UTAH. This is the quarter finals of The Basketball Classic. The winner will play in the semis, on Monday, at Fresno State. I've been riding the Thunderbirds in this tournament and I'm coming back with them again here. As I've mentioned this is a very talented Southern Utah team. Had they not stumbled against Portland State in the Big Sky tournament, the Thunderbirds could easily have won a game or two at the Big Dance. Now, they'll get a chance to take their frustration out on a team from the same state as the one which prevented them from having that opportunity. While the Thunderbirds could have easily packed it in, after not realizing their NCAA dreams, they didn't. Rather, they bought into the opportunity to keep playing and are looking to win this tournament. They'll be in front of their home fans and I expect their best effort. The Pilots are 8-10 on the road, averaging less than 70 ppg. The T-Birds are 12-3 at home, averaging 82.5 ppg here. Southern Utah is 3-1 ATS its past four as a neutral court favorite in the -3.5 to -6 range. I don't believe the Pilots will be able to keep up. |
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03-25-22 | North Carolina v. UCLA -2 | Top | 73-66 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on UCLA. Obviously, these are two top teams. They were actually supposed to face each other last December, in Vegas. However, that game was canceled due to the Bruins having to deal with Covid. Now, they face each other with a trip to the Elite 8 on the line. No question, UNC has been playing really well. This is a deep, talented and experienced UCLA team though. The favorite is 5-0 ATS the past five meetings and the Bruins are favored for good reason. Note that the Heels are 4-12-1 ATS their last 17, when listed as neutral court underdogs of three or less. I believe that the Bruins' toughness and defensive advantage will ultimately prove the difference. UCLA allows 64.9 ppg on the road, UNC allows 77.1. Expect the Bruins to advance, covering the small number along the way. |
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03-25-22 | Providence v. Kansas -7 | Top | 61-66 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on KANSAS. The Friars have played well and are on a nice run. It comes to an end here though. Battle-tested against a tough Big 12 scheduled, this very talented Kansas team is peaking at the right time. Despite playing a more difficult schedule, Kansas has very similar defensive numbers as Providence. The Friars allow 66.2 ppg. The Jayhawks allow 67.6. Opposing teams hit 41.4% of their field goals against Kansas and 41% against Providence. Note that over the past five games, Kansas is allowing just 63.6 ppg while holding opposing teams to a 38% field goal percentage. Prov. has allowed 66 ppg and 41.4% fgs during it's past five games. Its on the other side of the ball where the Jayhawks have an even bigger advantage. Kansas has averaged 78.7 ppg and 76.7 ppg on the road. The Friars, on the other hand, averaage only 66.5 ppg on the road. The Friars hit only 40% of their fields on the road, the Jayhawks connect on 47.3% of theirs. I'm expecting a double-digit win. |
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03-24-22 | Arkansas v. Gonzaga UNDER 155 | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 25 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on Arkansas/Gonzaga UNDER the total. I won with the 'over' in Gonzaga's first game. So, I'm well aware that this team can put up big points. That said, that game was against an overmatched Georgia State team. While the Panthers fought hard, it was still a #1 vs. 16 seed matchup. I was confident that the Bulldogs would put up a very big number and I thought the Panthers would chip in enough to do the rest. In the end, that's what happened; a 93-72 final. The Razorbacks won't completely shutdown the Bulldogs but they will be able to slow them down more than Georgia State could. Yet O/U line is considerably higher for this game than it was for that one. Consider that the 92 that they scored against Georgia State was the only time in the past 10 games that Gonzaga has reached the 90 mark. Then, consider that no team all year (35 games) has reached the 90 mark against Arkansas. The Razorbacks have had some absolutely dominant defensive efforts along the way, too. Remember when they held Missouri to only 29 points? How about last game? They limited New Mexico State to just 48 points, a 53-48 victory. The same NMSU team had just scored 70 against UConn the previous game. Gonzaga coach Mark Few said this of the rest of the tournament and of Arkansas: "From here on out they're all tough. They're all physical, they're all great athletes or great defenses ... They're very athletic, evenly sized and can really guard. Their defense is kind of what jumps out at you, right off the page." Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than expected, the final combined score staying below the generously high number. |
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03-23-22 | Washington State v. BYU UNDER 142.5 | Top | 77-58 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on WSU/BYU UNDER the total. BYU has put up a lot of points their last couple of games. I expect them to find the going considerably more difficult on offense this evening though. In getting here, WSU has been very stingy. It its last two games, facing Santa Clara and SMU, WSU has allowed 50 and 63 points. Off the most recent win, Washington State coach Kyle Smith commented: "Our big boys were big. Playing big ball worked. ... They're young, but they're starting to emerge at the right time." More often that not, playing "big ball" is going to slow things down. Note that the UNDER was 9-5 in BYU's lined home games. Despite BYU home games AND WSU road games both averaging in the high 130s, we're working with an O/U line in the 140s. The UNDER is 17-8 the past 25 times that WSU played a game with an O/U line in the 140s. I expect those stats to improve this evening. |
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03-22-22 | Vanderbilt v. Xavier -3.5 | Top | 73-75 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on XAVIER. Vanderbilt is in the wrong place, at the wrong time. I won with the Musketeers in their last game. They easily disposed of Florida, a 72-56 victory. I believe that this talented team has hit its stride. I expect Xavier's superior defense to prove the difference. The Commodores barely got by Dayton last game. They've been mediocre on the road all season. They score 69.6 ppg on the road and allow 69.4. On the other hand, Xavier outscores teams by an average score of 75.3 to 64.8 here at home. Off their dominant defensive effort, note that the Musketeers are 5-1 ATS their last six after allowing 60 or fewer points in their previous game. Playing their final home game of the season, expect the Musketeers to punch their ticket to MSG, improving on those stats along the way. |
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03-22-22 | Southern Utah +4.5 v. UTEP | Top | 82-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on SOUTHERN UTAH. The Miners are off a blowout win while the Thunderbirds won a close one. Those results have worked in our favor; this line could easily be lower. Keep in mind that UTEP was playing the Western Illinois Leathernecks, a mediocre team (at best) from the Summit Conference. (They were 7-11 in Summit League play, 16-14 overall). The Thunderbirds represent a major step up in class. This is a strong team, one which is angry that it didn't advance to the NCAA Tournament. The Thunderbirds have 21 wins and went 14-6 in the Big Sky and they'd consider that a disappointment. I like the fact that they didn't hang their heads and found a way to beat a tough Kent State team to get here. Prior to their blowout win over the Leathernecks, the Miners were off an OT loss. Prior to that, they'd seen three of their previous four games decided by three or fewer points and those four games were preceded by a blowout loss. The T-Birds are 4-2 ATS the past six times that they were road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. Grab the points and don't be surprised when score the outright win. |
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03-21-22 | USC Upstate v. South Alabama -9.5 | Top | 79-83 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on SOUTH ALABAMA. This is a mismatch. The Jaguars score 75.4 ppg at home, hitting 47.3% of their field goals here. The Spartans, on the other hand, average 69.8 ppg on the road, hitting 44.1% of their field goals. It's on the other side of the ball, however, where the Jags have an even bigger advantage. South Alabama allows only 58.1 ppg here. Visiting teams hit just 37.5% of their field goals. Meanwhile, the Spartans allow 75.4 ppg on the road, host teams hitting 43.4% of their field goals. The Jags were 8-4 ATS in lined games here. I like that they found a way to win a close one last game and I expect them to follow it up with a blowout tonight. |
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03-20-22 | Texas v. Purdue UNDER 134.5 | Top | 71-81 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on Texas/Purdue UNDER the total. The Boilermakers were dominant defensively in the first round. They held Yale to only 56 points. The Texas game was higher-scoring, the Longhorns beat VTech 81-73. That game was only 31-30 with a few seconds left in the first half though. (They proceeded to hit two free throws, followed by a shot from beyond halfcourt.) Though things got a little crazy in the second half, with the Hokies trying to catch up, the Longhorns defense was arguably better than the score suggests. They forced nine turnovers in the second half and held the Hokies to four 3-point makes. Purdue has now seen six of its past seven games stay below the number. Prior to scoring 81 against the Hokies, Texas had only scored 61, 63 and 60 points its previous three games. Look for nothing to come easily and the UNDER to improve to 9-3 when the Longhorns played a game with an O/U line in the 130s. |
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03-20-22 | Iowa State v. Wisconsin -3 | Top | 54-49 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on WISCONSIN. Colgate was a tough first round opponent for the Badgers. As I quite respected the Raiders and wasn't 100% certain of Johnny Davis' ankle, I stayed away from the game, as a result. The Raiders, who had won 15 straight, did give the Badgers some early trouble. In the end, Wisconsin's defense came through and Davis caught fire. Iowa State used a similar formula. The Cyclones won with defense and a big game from their star; Tyrese Hunter. While Hunter happens to personally hail from the state of Wisconsin, the fact that this game will be played in Milwaukee benefits the Badgers. While the Cyclones played in a very tough Big 12 Conference, they were only 7-12 within their conference. Keep in mind that the Cyclones entered this tournament off a 71-42 blowout loss, their third straight defeat. The Cyclones do have a good defense and they were able to beat LSU by forcing turnovers. However, they'll have a difficult time doing so against the Badgers. Wisconsin only turns the ball over 8.5 times per game; that's one of the better marks in the country. Wisconsin is also 15-3 SU and 12-4-2 ATS its past 18 when facing a team which allows 64 or fewer points per game, 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS its past five. Facing an ISU team which is averaging only 55.6 ppg (37.7% field goals) its past five games, I believe that this is a favorable matchup for the Badgers. Look for them to punch their ticket to the next round, covering the small number along the way. |
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03-20-22 | Florida v. Xavier -2.5 | Top | 56-72 | Win | 100 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on XAVIER. There's a lot that I like about the Musketeers. I like the team itself and believe that they're more talented than many realize. I like how the Musketeers rallied from a deficit to beat a tough Clev. State team in the first round. I like that they're playing here at Cincinnati. (The Gators are 7-8 on the road, Xavier is 14-5 at home.) As for the fact that they're playing under an interim coach, Florida is in the same boat. (The Gators coach left for Georgia.) The Gators are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU victory. They're also 2-8 ATS their last 10 road games vs. teams with a home winning % of greater than .600. Even after failing to cover vs. the Vikings, the Musketeers are still a healthy 9-3 ATS (11-1 SU) against non-conf. opponents. Expect them to improve on those stats Sunday afternoon. |
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03-19-22 | Michigan v. Tennessee OVER 135.5 | Top | 76-68 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on Michigan/Tennessee OVER the total. Michigan had a higher O/U line for its game against Colorado State. Yet, the Rams were a low-scoring team which plays stingy defense. True, they're up against another good defense here. That said, this Tennesee team just scored 85 points in its opening game and averages 73.6 ppg. Tennessse is connecting on a whopping 48% of its field goals, the past five games. Like the Vols, the Wolverines also average just over 73 ppg. They hit 47% of their field goals, 47.8% their past five games. Their defense is nothing special though. They allow 69.7, opposing teams connecting on a fairly high 44.4% of their field goals. That number climbs to 45.3% over their past five games. The OVER is 4-0 the past four times that Michigan was an underdog. These teams combined for 144 in March 2014. I see this one also getting into the 140s, the OVER improving to 11-3-1 when the Wolverines played a game with an O/U line in the 130s. |
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03-19-22 | North Carolina v. Baylor UNDER 149.5 | Top | 93-86 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on UNC/Baylor UNDER the total. I'm playing on UNC/Baylor UNDER the total. In the first round, both these teams showed that they were capable of putting up a big number on offense. However, they're also both capable of playing stingy defense. That's particularly true of this year's Baylor team. The Tar Heels held Marquette to just 62 points. Meanwhile, the Bears limited Norfolk State to a mere 49 points. Note that the UNDER is 7-2 the past nine times that Baylor allowed 50 or fewer points in its previous game. While most will remember their 94 point effort against Duke and the 95 that they dropped on Marquette, keep in mind that the Heels scored 64 and 65 in the two games sandwiched between those ones. They've actually scored 70 or less in five of their past nine. Prior their 85 against Norfolk State, the Bears had scored 75 or less in three straight and 80 or less in 10 straight. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting, the UNDER improving to 13-7 the past 20 times that UNC played with one or less day's rest in between games. |
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03-18-22 | Virginia Tech v. Texas | Top | 73-81 | Win | 100 | 33 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS. The Hokies are a popular bracket pick. After all, they just knocked off both UNC and Duke to win the ACC Tournament. They certainly check in as the hotter team. Also, #11 seeds have been known to beat #6 seeds. It happened twice last year alone. In fact, it's happened 37.5% of the time, dating back to 1985. Plus. Texas hasn't won an NCAA Tournament game since 2014. Yet, the Longhorns are the higher seed and small favorite for a reason. While I respect the Hokies, I absolutely see Texas getting off the schneid this year. This is a very talented, athletic and well-coached team, tested against a really strong Big 12 Conference. Remember, the Longhorns have beaten Kansas, a #1 seed expected to go a long way. They also beat Tennessee, holding the Vols to 51 points. Speaking of dominant defensive performances, don't forget that Texas trounced Iowa State by a 63-41 score. They're a top 15 team in terms of defiency efficiency and they allow just 59.6 ppg. Chris Beard, who has enjoyed first round success before, was brought in to get the Longhorns over the hump with an NCAA Tournament win. Expect him to deliver. |
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03-18-22 | Yale v. Purdue OVER 143.5 | Top | 56-78 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on Yale/Purdue OVER the total. I won with the Bulldogs 'under' the total in the Ivy League title game, against Princeton. So, I'm aware that they've been on an 'under' streak. I already successfully came back with the 'over' in the Princeton's next game and I believe that Yale's game will also prove to be high-scoring. The Boilermakers can score anywhere. Despite facing some very tough defenses, Purdue averages 79.8 ppg, connecting on 49.3% of field goals. Note that the Boilermakers have seen the OVER go 4-0 their past four NCAA Tournament games. Like Princeton, Yale has played higher-scoring games against non-conf. opponents. The OVER is 8-5 in their games outside the Ivy League. Overall, the Bulldogs are averaging more than 72 ppg. Expect Purdue to put up a big number and Yale to contribute enough to send this one above the total, the OVER improving to 11-5 the last 16 times that the Boilermakers played on a neutral court. |
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03-17-22 | Akron v. UCLA -13.5 | Top | 53-57 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on UCLA. The Zips went on a great run to get here. Unfortunately, for Akron fans, they're up against a far superior opponent. The Bruins, 6-0 ATS their last six NCAA Tournament games, are loaded. They may have fallen short against Arizona in the Pac-12 Final but this is an very strong and well-coached UCLA team. Akron doesn't score that much and is here largely because of defense. The Zips allow 63.6 ppg with opposing teams hitting 42.8% of their field goals. The problem is that UCLA is even better defensively. Facing a far tougher schedule, the Bruins allowed 64.8 ppg, holding opponents to 41.6% of their field goals. Those defensive stats have led to an O/U line in the high 120s. That doesn't bode well for the Zips; they're 1-6 ATS the past seven times that they played a game with an O/U line in the 120s. During that span, UCLA is 2-0 SU/ATS when doing so. Despite playing in the tougher conference and also facing the likes of Gonzaga and Villanova from outside the Pac-12, the Bruins still put up those strong defensive numbers and they also had far superior offensive numbers than Akron. The very well-coached Bruins are 9-2-1 ATS (10-2 SU) the past dozen times that they were off a game where they allowed 80 or more points. (The lone 'push' was a 16-point win.) Expect them to start the tournament off with a blowout victory. |
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03-17-22 | Georgia State v. Gonzaga OVER 148.5 | Top | 72-93 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on Georgia State / Gonzaga OVER the total. You know that the Bulldogs are going to put up a big number. After all, they've got the best scoring offense in the country. They average 87.8 ppg, 85.6 ppg on the road. They've gone over the 80 mark in five of their past six and 16 of their past 19. So, the question is: Will the Panthers contribute enough to combine with Gonzaga's "big number" to go over this total? I believe that answer is yes. The Bulldogs have been a profitable 'under' team on the season. However, they still averaged more than 70 ppg and they're coming off an 80 point effort last time out. They've scored at least 65 in five straight games, averaging 72.6 during that stretch. They've got a hot player (Cory Allen of b2b 29-pt games) and they aren't going to quit until the final buzzer. Recall that Georgia State went on a 13-0 run to close the game to beat Baylor in the 2015 Tournament. They won't beat Gonzaga but they won't quit trying. The OVER is 15-9 the past 24 times that the Bulldogs played on a neutral court and that includes a 7-5 OVER mark as neutral court favorites of greater than a dozen points. Expect those stats to improve this afternoon. |
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03-16-22 | Kent State v. Southern Utah +1.5 | Top | 79-83 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on SOUTHERN UTAH. The Golden Flashes should be careful what they wish for. Coach Senderoff said he asked for a difficult game to open The Basketball Classic. He sure got one. The Thunderbirds are tough. Senderoff noted: "Are we disappointed that we lost Saturday? Absolutely ..." The Flashes didn't just lose. They got hammered 77-55. Now, they're up against an arguably tougher opponent. While the Thunderbirds also (obviously) lost their last game, it was the result of running into a very hot shooting Portland State team. The Golden Flashes, who average only 67 ppg on the road, don't have that type of offense. Southern Utah averages 82.4 ppg here at home. I like that the Thunderbirds last played on 3/10 compared to Kent State last having played on 3/12. I also really like the fact that the Flashes didn't fly out of Ohio until 3:30am Tuesday, flew to Vegas and then had to drive three hours to Southern Utah. Indeed, the situation favors the Thunderbirds. Southern Utah is 3-0 SU/ATS the past three times it was a home underdog of three or less and 13-7 SU/ATS its last 20 in that role. Frankly, I'm surprised that the Thunderbirds are underdogs at all. I see them bouncing back with a solid win. |
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03-15-22 | Princeton v. VCU OVER 138 | Top | 79-90 | Win | 100 | 23 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on Princeton/VCU OVER the total. I won with Princeton 'under' in the Ivy League Finals. Here's an excerpt of what I said before that "defensive battle" against Yale: "...Both teams saw yesterday's games finish below the total. For Yale, that's four straight games which have finished below the total. The UNDER is 5-2 when the Bulldogs played with one day or less worth of rest in between games. Holding Penn to only 61 points yesterday was an impressive defensive display, considering that the Quakers had scored at least 70 in nine straight games. The previous team to keep them below 70? Princeton, back on 1/17. While the Bulldogs are stingy, they don't always score much. They avg 68 ppg away from home and 69 ppg in Ivy League play overall. Expect nothing to come easily, the final combined score falling below the number..." While VCU is also a very capable defensive team, the Rams will provide a much different type of game. The Rams are averaging better than 70 ppg over their past five games and they've seen the OVER go 3-1 in their four tourney games. The Tigers can score anywhere as they average 77.5 ppg on the road, the OVER going 8-3. The OVER is 9-2 in their non-conf games. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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03-13-22 | Memphis +4 v. Houston | Top | 53-71 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on MEMPHIS. This should be a good game. These are two really solid and well-coached teams. Both these teams were really good last year, too. Houston achieved great success as it went all the way to the Final 4. Memphis felt that it deserved an NCAA Tournament berth. However, due to a slow start, the Tigers were snubbed. They ended up going to the NIT instead. Once there, they won that tournament. The Cougars arguably lost more from last year's team than did the Tigers. Yet, it was Memphis which got off to another slow start this season. That was largely due to injuries though. The Tigers are absolutely rolling now. Winners of six straight, they're on a mission. They alredy beat Houston in both this season's meetings. The Cougars have only lost twice since 2/12; both losses were against Memphis. The Cougars are 3-10 ATS their last 13 as neutral court favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. On the other hand, Memphis is 12-2-1 ATS its last 15, when listed as an underdog. Grab the points. |
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03-13-22 | Texas A&M v. Tennessee -6 | Top | 50-65 | Win | 100 | 2 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on TENNESSEE. I loved this matchup from the time which it was set. However, I waited on pulling the trigger, in the hope that the line might come down a little. It has, albeit not by too much; I'm jumping all in. The Vols were -11 point favorites for the lone regular season meeting. They won by 10. Here, they catch the Aggies having played an extra game. The Aggies played a very hard fought game against Florida on 3/10. The Vols had that day off. That hard-fought win served the Aggies well (provided momentum) over the next two days. However, those extra minutes will catch up with them in this one. Both teams average a nearly identical number of points. However, the Vols have a considerable edge on defense. They held Kentucky to 62 yesterday after allowing 59 the previous day. They'll crank up that defensive intensity again here en route to the title, snapping the Aggies' ATS streak along the way. |
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03-12-22 | Michigan State v. Purdue -6 | Top | 70-75 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on PURDUE. Both teams won yesterday, obviously. The Spartans managed a cover vs. the Badgers after eking out one against the Terrapins on Thursday. The Boilermakers won by eight yesterday, narrowly missisng out on the cover. Unlike the Spartans, they had Thursday off. I expect that to work in their favor this afternoon. The Spartans are playing their third game in three days, Purdue is not. Remember, this is a loaded Purdue team which returned every starter from last year's team. I also like that the Spartans won the first meeting. Of course, that was at East Lansing. The Boilermakers will use that result to provide them with some extra fire and hunger this afternoon. Remember, Purdue was 4-0 SU/ATS the previous four meetings. The fact that the Boilermakers have failed to cover recently has helped in keeping the line a little lower than it easily could have been. (Purdue was laying -5 for the game at MSU.) The Boilermakers are 6-1 SU the past seven times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. Look for them to improve on those stats this afternoon, picking up the cover along the way. |
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03-12-22 | Cornell v. Princeton -6 | Top | 73-77 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on PRINCETON. The Big Red did a great job in getting here. However, I believe that they're in over their heads this afternoon. At the beginning of the Ivy League season, I said this about the Tigers: "The Tigers have had a few down years. That will change in 2022. They're already 2-0 in conference play and their 12-3 overall record is best in the Ivy League. Two of those three losses were very close, too. They've beaten the likes of Oregon State and South Carolina. The young Princeton players have matured. They're the early frontrunners for the league title." Meanwhile, I had this to say about Cornell: "I don't expect the Big Red (1-2) to compete for the league title this season; I successfully played against them in their 14-point loss against Penn. However, I'm giving them an honorable mention due to their impressive 10-2 ATS overall record." I still feel the same way and Princeton's 93-70 blowout of Penn last time out, its seventh straight victory, reinforces those feelings. Off their win over Columbia, note that the Big Red are just 3-6 ATS when off an Ivy League victory. Cornell may have played them tough in the regular season but the Tigers will win big when it counts. Lay the points. |
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03-11-22 | Connecticut v. Villanova -3 | Top | 60-63 | Push | 0 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on VILLANOVA. I love the grit that the Wildcats showed in winning yesterday's game. The Wildcats couldn't hit anything out of the gate. They made only three of their first 20 shots. The defense kept them in it though, as they still trailed by only six. Things got worse. By halftime, the Wildcats were down seven. The second half didn't start well either. In fact, with 15:33 left in the game, Villanova was down by 17 points. That's when the talent and experience kicked in. The Cats didn't blink and went on an 18-2 run. They'd ultimated win by a point. As Jay Wright noted: "We've got great seniors. We have great upperclassmen." No question, UConn is tough. However, I believe that yesterday's comeback win is exactly the type of victory that will build and provide positive momentum fo the Wildcats. Though the Huskies are really good, arguably the second best team in a very strong conference, I don't think they're quite as good as the Villanova team which they'll face today. The Huskies are 1-6 ATS their past seven, as neutral court underdogs. Expect them to stumble tonight, the favorite moving to 4-1-2 ATS the past seven times that these teams faced each other. |
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03-11-22 | Miami-FL v. Duke UNDER 150.5 | Top | 76-80 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on Miami/Duke UNDER the total. Obviously, Duke can put up a lot of points. The Miami offense is also capable. Both teams saw yesterday's games finish above the number. That said, this is a very high O/U line. I feel that it'll prove to be too high. Yes, Miami saw yesterday's game go 'over' the number. However, the final combined score was still only 140 and that was only after 10 points were scoring in OT. Duke ran into a hot shooting Syracuse team and found itself down at the break. That forced the Blue Devils to put up a really big number in the second half. This one figures to play out differently. This season's regular season game finished with 150. Yet, they only had 64 at the break and it required a very high-scoring 86-point second half to get to 150. I don't see them scoring nearly as many second half points in this one. This is just the second time that Miami played its second game in two days this season. The first (69-63 win on 11/26) finished with 132 points. Likewise, this is also only the second time that Duke has played the second of b2b games this season. The first (67-56 win on 11/13) finished with only 123 points. Needless to say, that game finished well below the number. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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03-10-22 | Washington v. USC UNDER 142.5 | Top | 61-65 | Win | 100 | 16 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on Washington/USC UNDER the total. The Trojans are capable of being very stingy. I expect that to be on display this evening. Before getting started, note that this O/U line is higher than the regular season one, which was played at USC. Yet, as you'll see in a moment, the Trojans give up fewer points (while also scoring less) when playing away from home. USC allows only 66 ppg. Opposing teams hit just 38.9% of their field goals. On the road, the Trojans are even stingier. They allow just 64.5 ppg on the road, just 28.5 for the first half. That 64.5 ppg allowed on the road ranks in the top 20 in the country and is #1 in the Pac-12. Consider that the Trojans' recent game at Oregon State just finished at 94-91 and that it went to double-OT. Throw out those two OT periods and USC's defensive numbers, on the road, are even better. Note that the UNDER is a perfect 4-0 in their past four neutral court games, 10-4-1 their past 15. The Huskies, who won 82-70 yesterday, can play reasonably decent defense themselves. They've now allowed 70 or less in three straight and none of their last eight opponents have reached 80. All four previous times that Huskies scored 80 or more this season, they failed to reach 70 their next game. Their scores were 62, 56, 69 and 68. Look for the Huskies to find the going much tougher on offense tonight, the final combined score staying beneath the generous number. |
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03-10-22 | Miami-OH +7 v. Kent State | Top | 75-85 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI OHIO. Kent State won the lone regular season meeting. At the time, the RedHawks were in the midst of a really bad skid. However, that was more than a month ago. I really like the way that Miami enters this tournament. This is an experienced Miami team, one which returned all five starters from last season. The RedHawks closed out the season off b2b double-digit victories. They won 75-61 at Central Michigan and then followed it up with a 76-63 blowout of Eastern Michigan. Of course, Kent State has been playing really well for some time now. That said, note that each of the Golden Flashes' last three wins have been by single digits; they came by an average of five points. It's also worth mentioning that the Flashes are 1-4-1 ATS (2-4 SU) the past six times that they played with five or six day's rest in between games. The Golden Flashes can have trouble scoring when not playing at home, too. They average 71.2 ppg overall but just 66.6 on the road. On the other hand, Miami averages 75.3 ppg overall and 73.2 ppg on the road. Remember, these teams were very evenly ranked, entering the season. Grab the points and expect the RedHawks, who just may be peaking at exactly the right time, to take this one down to the wire with a real shot at the upset. |
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03-09-22 | Prairie View A&M +1.5 v. Alcorn State | Top | 63-64 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on PRAIRIE VIEW. These teams split a pair of close games during the regular season. (Each team won on the other team's home floor.) The pointspread suggests this could be another close one. Though the pointspread isn't likely to be a factor, it's worth mentioning that AS is 2-6 its last eight as favorite while PV is 5-0 ATS its last five as an underdog. Alcorn State had the better regular season record. I believe Prairie View is the stronger of the two teams though and I expect that to play out on the court this evening. No question that it was a disappointing reg. season for the Panthers. However, the tournament offers a chance at a fresh start and this is a PV team with the tools to make the most of that chance. Keep in mind that the Panthers have arguably the most talented backcourt in the SWAC. They're "deep and versatile." This is a team which lost in the SWAC title game last season and which is hungry to to get back there. The Braves dropped 100 points on Arkansas Pine Bluff last time out. On the surface, that sounds pretty impressive. However, the Golden Lions aren't very good and don't play defense. Also, the Braves are only 5-10 ATS the past 15 times that they scored 80 or more in their previous game. The Panthers, on the other hand, are 8-3 ATS their last 11, when off a conference loss. Look for them to elevate their game and improve on those stats this evening. |
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03-09-22 | West Virginia v. Kansas State UNDER 139.5 | Top | 73-67 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on WVU/KSU UNDER the total. While both regular season meetings finished above the number, I'm expecting points to be hard to come by in this one. Neither team is strong offensively. The Mountaineers average 68.5 ppg, hitting 41.3% of their field goals. The Wildcats average 69.1 ppg, connecting on 42.1% of their field goals. When playing away from home home, however, that field goal percentage dips to just 39.1. The Wildcats average 67 ppg on the road, just 30.7 in the first half. With both teams a little below .500, note that the Mountaineers have seen the UNDER go 9-4 their last 13 against teams with losing records. Meanwhile, during that span, the Wildcats have seen the UNDER go 11-5 when facing a team with a sub-500 record. Prior to this season, these teams had seen six of their past eight meetings, including each of their past three, finish below the total. Those three games had scores of 65-43, 69-47 and 66-57. It should be noted that K-State's leading scorer was less than 100% last game (stomach flu) and that the Wildcats' second leading scorer missed the final two games. Though both may play, they may be at less than 100%. Look for a return to the low-scoring WVU/KSU battles of the past. |
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03-08-22 | Chicago State v. Utah Valley UNDER 132.5 | Top | 47-69 | Win | 100 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on Chicago State/Utah Valley UNDER the total. These teams played a very high scoring game against each other in the regular season. This one will be much different. The Cougars had some success scoring on their homecourt in the first meeting. This is an inexperienced Chicago State team though; scoring will prove far more difficult, now that it counts. Since that 1.27 game at Chicago State, the Wolverines have cranked up the defensive intensity. They've never allowed that many points again. They've held each of their last four opponents below 70 points. Two of those teams scored less than 55. Note that Utah Valley scored only 42 last game, a 62-42 loss at New Mexico State. The Wolverines are averaging only 61.6 ppg (39.1% field goals) their past five. (Each of their past four games have gone under the total.) So, they aren't scoring much. Yet, they're still big favorites. That's in large part because the Cougars are scoring even less. Chicago State averages less than 60 ppg away from home, hitting only 38% of its field goals. The Cougars have scored 66 or less in five straight and 73 or less in 11 straight. They've seen the UNDER go a perfect 6-0 their past six neutral court games. Expect those stats to improve tonight. |
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03-08-22 | Marshall -3 v. Florida International | Top | 74-62 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on MARSHALL. The Panthers had the better regular season record. They even won both regular season meetings. Yet, Marshall is favored for good reason. Indeed, this is a tough matchup for the Panthers. The Herd are far more talented than their record suggests. The Panthers aren't playing as well now as they were when the teams played earlier in the season. They've lost their last four games. Those losses came by nine, 20, 20 and eight points, an average of more than 14. Though they covered last game, the Panthers are 1-4 ATS the past five times that they were off an ATS victory. They've allowed more than 80 points in two of their past three. I don't believe they'll able to keep up tonight. Look for Marshall to "win when it counts," covering the small number along the way. |
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03-07-22 | Northern Kentucky v. IUPU Ft Wayne UNDER 136 | Top | 57-43 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on Northern Kentucky/Purdue Fort Wayne UNDER the total. With all due respect to the offenses, I believe that this number will prove to be too high. Both these teams are capable of being really stingy. Northern Kentucky allows just 65.6 points per game, fewest in the Horizon League, while holding opponents to 43.0% shooting. Though perhaps more known for their shooting, on their current winning streak, the Mastadons are allowing just 65.8 points per game, in regulation. (Number doesn't include OT against Clev. State.) According to KenPom, the Mastadons had a 98.6 defensive efficiency in Horizon League games. That was the best in the league. The quality defense was on display in the two reg. season meetings. They had final scores of 71-57 in December and just 59-49 in January. With the 'Dons having failed to cover their last game, note that the UNDER is 5-0 the past five times that they were off an ATS loss. Expect nothing to come easy and the final score to stay below the number. |
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03-07-22 | College of Charleston -1.5 v. NC-Wilmington | Top | 57-60 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHARLESTON. The Seahawks took both regular season meetings. However, the Cougars are slight favorites for good reason, as this will prove to be one of those cases where it's really difficult to beat a team three times in the same season. The Seahawks beat the Cougars at UNC Wilmington last month. The previous month, they beat the Cougars at Charleston. The Cougars had just finished a tough non-conf. schedule though and they were still adjusting to new players and a first year coach. However, Kelsey is a quality coach and he's got a lot to work with. He's now had the time needed and his team is now benefitting from those tough early non-conf. games. Yesterday's double-digit blowout of Hofstra brought them to 6-0 ATS their past six games. Keep in mind that the Cougars also lost both reg. season games to Hofstra. Yet, they won big when it mattered. I believe that they're putting it all together at the right time and I fully expect another victory this evening. |
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03-06-22 | Georgia State v. Appalachian State OVER 128 | Top | 71-66 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on Georgia State / App State OVER the total. This is a low O/U line. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Both regular season meetings had O/U lines in the 130s. This one is in the 120s. When these teams met in this tournament last March, the O/U line was 136.5. They had more than 70 by halftime and combined for 152. Georgia State has scored 65 or more in three straight games, averaging more than 70. After yesterday's 73-60 win, the Mountaineers have scored 60 or more in five straight, averaging 68.2. Note that the OVER is 7-1 the past eight (games with O/U lines and excluding pushes) times that the Mountaineers allowed 60 or fewer points in their previous game. The last time that they allowed 60 or less, the next game had a final score of 78-66. Expect both teams to keep scoring the entire way and for this one to finish above the low number. |
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03-05-22 | Denver v. North Dakota State -8.5 | Top | 62-82 | Win | 100 | 28 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on NORTH DAKOTA STATE. he Bison won both reg. season meetings. One win came by eight points. The other came by 18. Sometimes, you'll hear that it can be difficult to beat a team three times in the same season. That's certainly true if the weaker team somehow managed to win both regular season games. At times, it can also be true when the two teams are fairly evenly matched. However, there are cases where one team is just a lot better than the other team. In those situations, there's no reason to think that anything will change from what happened in the regular season. I believe that this is one of those cases. The Bison have a big edge in the backcourt and arguably an even bigger edge in the frontcourt. (The entered the season with the #1 ranked frontcourt in the conference and the #3 ranked backcourt.) The Bison score more points than the Pioneers and they allow less. With an opening O/U line in the high 130s, note that NDSU is 3-0 ATS the past three times it played a neutral court game with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range. They're 8-3 ATS their last 11 in that situation. During that span, the Pioneers were 2-6 ATS when playing a neutral site game with an O/U line in that range. Expect a double-digit win for the superior team. |
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03-05-22 | Colorado v. Utah -1.5 | Top | 84-71 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
I'm playing on UTAH. Off a big home win against Arizona, the Buffaloes can now secure a #4 seed. That makes this a big game for them. Off back-to-back losses, playing with revenge from a close loss at Colorado and playing their home finale, the Utes are also going to be fired up. That Arizona win was just the second time in school history (and first since 1992) that Colorado had beaten a #2 seed. I believe that 'historic' win may have the Buffaloes, who lost a lot from last year's team and who are 3-10 ATS their last 13, when off an ATS victory, ripe for a "letdown." Over the past couple of months, they've seen a few players go down to injury, including guard Parquet and center Lovering. Those were significant losses. In his last game before injury, Parquet provided 31 minutes, nine points, five rebounds, two assists and three blocks. That was a low-scoring (60-58) game, too. So, stats were tough to come by. The 7-foot Lovering had also been expected to be a big part of the Buffaloes' plans. Keep in mind that the Buffaloes are only mediocre on the road, where they average just 67.1 ppg. The Utes are a profitable 39-19 ATS over the years, after failing to cover their previous three games, 8-3 ATS their last 11 in that situation. Expect the Utes' best effort as they bounce back and improve on those stats tonight. |
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03-04-22 | Bradley v. Loyola-Chicago -5.5 | Top | 50-66 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on LOYOLA. You probably recall that the Ramblers made a deep run in the NCAA Tournament last year, eventually losing in the Sweet 16. This year's team brought back four of those five starters. They're still loaded and now they'll remind everyone of that. The Brave, 1-4 ATS the last five times that they played with five or six day's rest in between games, are in over their heads. It doesn't hurt that Bradley upset the Ramblers in the most recent meeting. That'll ensure they don't take anything for granted here. The Ramblers are 7-4 ATS (9-2 SU) the past 11 times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. They're also 10-1 SU the past 11 times thay they were off a conference loss. Look for an angry Loyola team to improve on those stats, picking up the cover along the way. |
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03-03-22 | Louisiana-Monroe v. Arkansas State -5.5 | Top | 77-81 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on ARKANSAS STATE. The Warhawks are 1-7 ATS the past eight times that they were listed as neutral court underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. This is another tough matchup for them. The Red Wolves are a much stronger team. They enter the tournament off a momentum-building victory over a solid Appalachian State team and they've got high hopes of making a run. On the other hand, the Warhawks are off five straight losses, the most recent coming a demoralizing OT setback. They'll be playing their fourth straight away from home and their morale may be at its lowest point of the season. They're 0-4 ATS their last four as neutral site underdogs. Having been upset by the Warhawks in the last meeting, the Red Wolves, 7-3 ATS the last 10 times that they attempted to avenge a home loss, will be "all business" right from the opening tip. Expect them to win this one by double-digits, improving to 7-2 ATS their last nine "tournament" games. |
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03-02-22 | Hampton +6 v. High Point | Top | 77-84 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 11 m | Show |
Analysis to follow |
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03-01-22 | Miami-OH -2.5 v. Central Michigan | Top | 75-61 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI OHIO. These teams met a week ago, at Miami. The RedHawks were double-digit favorites but lost outright. That will provide them with some added motivation for this one. They've got the superior talent and they don't want to be swept by an inferior opponent. The last time these teams met here was just over a year ago. The RedHawks were laying -6 and they won by 42 points, a 96-54 destruction. Including that result, the RedHawks have won 12 of their last 16 visits here. Even with last week's loss, the Red Hawks are still 19-9 their last 28 against teams with a losing record. With an O/U line in the high 140s, note that CMU is 0-2 SU/ATS when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 145 to 149.5 range. I say the revenge-minded RedHawks elevate their game, en route to a much needed win and cover. |
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02-28-22 | Maryland-Eastern Shore v. Morgan State -3.5 | Top | 48-82 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on MORGAN STATE. The Bears are strong in both the frontcourt and the backcourt. Off b2b wins, I believe that they're peaking at the right time. I believe that they're better than their record suggests and I expect them to be fairly tough to beat once the MEAC Conference Tourney begins. Last time out, they won by seven. Last game here, they won by double-digits. This evening's game represents the Bears' final regular season home game. Six seniors will be honored before the game. Needless to say, they want to win their final game here at Hill Field House. Additional motivation stems from the fact that the Hawks won this season's earlier meeting. The Bears have won 14 of the past 20 meetings here, most recently an 8-point win in February of 2020. While the Hawks average 64 ppg on the road, the Bears average 88 ppg here at home. They'll be able to dictate the tempo and the Hawks won't be able to keep up. Payback time. |
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02-27-22 | Ohio State v. Maryland +4.5 | Top | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on MARYLAND. Playing at home and he Buckeyes won this season's first meeting. They also won a close one here last season, their third straight win in the series. Enough's enough. The Terps are stronger than their record suggests and they're healthier than they were early on. They won their last game here and they've had this one circled. Note that they'll honoring the 2002 Championship team today, which will help pack in the fans and which should make for a more raucous environment. Off Thursday's win at Illinois, the Buckeyes could be ripe for a letdown. Note that they're 4-7 ATS after allowing 80 or more points in their previous game. That 3-point win at Illinois notwithstanding, the Buckeyes have been mostly mediocre on the road. Prior to last season's loss here, the Terps had beaten the Buckeyes four straight times here. The home team is still 4-1 ATS the past five in the series. I'm happy to grab the points but I see Maryland rising to the occasion and scoring the outright win. |
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02-26-22 | Eastern Washington v. CS Sacramento OVER 141 | Top | 75-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on Eastern Washington/Sac. State OVER the total. I successfully played on the Hornets in their last game. They rewarded me by 83 points. It was their second straight game where they've hit at least 80, the offense clicking at a better rate than it has all season. Yet, the Hornets are underdogs here. That's because they'll face an Eastern Washington team which has also scored 80 or more in each of its past three games. The Eagles have scored 72 or more in seven straight; they're averaging 77.7 ppg in conference play. They scored 75 in this season's first meeting but the Hornets were unable to keep up. Playing at home, their offense gaining confidence, the Hornets will be able to more effectively trade points with them. The OVER is 8-1 when Eastern Washington, which last played Thursday, played with one day's rest in between games. Look for a relatively high-scoring affair, the OVER moving to 7-1 the past eight times that the Eagles were listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. |
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02-26-22 | Nevada +7.5 v. Wyoming | Top | 61-74 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEVADA. I've been waiting for this one ever since Wyoming won, at Nevada, last month. The Wolf Pack, 2-1 SU/ATS when attempting to avenge a home loss, have been too. The Cowboys, who lost at CSU on Wednesday, are 0-2 ATS when off a Mountain West loss. In both cases, despite being favored, they've had their hands full the next game. Over the past few weeks, Nevada has quietly been playing very well on the road. Last road game, the Pack won by 30 points. In their previous road game, they won by double-digits, at Utah State. Before that, they lost by only two, at San Diego State. Last season's two games here were both decided by seven points or less. Going back further finds the the Pack have won four of their last seven visits here and that all three of the losses were by seven or less. Expect the revenge-minded Wolf Pack to again play their hosts tough, taking the game down to the wire with an excellent shot at the outright win. |
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02-25-22 | Appalachian State v. Arkansas State -1.5 | Top | 60-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on ARKANSAS STATE. I like how this one sets up for the home team. After playing four straight on the road, the Red Wolves returned home and were upset by Coastal Carolina on Wednesday. They're 4-2 SU/ATS their last six off a conference loss though and a profitable 16-9 ATS their last 25 in that situation. They're 11-3 ATS their last 14 off all SU losses and 20-7-1 ATS their last 28, after failing to cover the spread in their previous game. The Red Wolves are also an outstanding 20-6 ATS the past 2+ seasons, excluding pushes, when playing with one day's rest in between games, 6-1 ATS (7-1 SU) their last eight in that situation. They're going to be fired up to avenge a road loss at App. State. While the Mountaineers are below .500 on the road where they average 65.1 ppg, the Wolves are 9-2 at home, where they avg 75.7 ppg. Lay the small number and expect a win and cover for the revenge-minded Red Wolves. |
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02-24-22 | Montana v. Southern Utah -6 | Top | 74-82 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
I'm playing on SOUTHERN UTAH. The Grizzlies won by double-digits when these teams met at Montana. Tonight, playing at home, I expect the revenge-minded Thunderbirds to return the favor. Montana is just 4-9 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 74.7 to 66.5. On the other hand, Southern Utah is 10-3 at home, outscoring teams by a 82.5 to 69.8 average score. The Thunderbirds are 10-7 ATS the past 17 times that they attempted to avenge a road loss. The Grizzlies, who have instate rival Montana State on deck, will be playing their second straight on the road. The last time that they played the second of b2b road games, they lost by a score of 86-63. That was at Idaho State and this is a much tougher venue than that. With the Grizzlies 1-6 ATS their last seven as road underdogs, expect a double-digit win for the revenge-minded home team. |
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02-22-22 | Fresno State v. Air Force OVER 117 | Top | 65-40 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on Fresno/AF OVER the total. There are a lot of games being played today. Of them all, this is the lowest O/U number. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. It's true that Fresno State has been on an 'under' streak. In fact, off a low-scoring loss against SDSU, they've now seen six straight games stay below the number. Of course, those results are a big part of why we're working with such a low O/U number. Here, however, they'll face an Air Force team which has seen it's past three games all finish above the number. Both teams are on a losing streaks and both will see this game as a potential opportunity to "get healthy" on offense. The Bulldogs have seen the OVER go 14-8 the past 2+ seasons, after scoring 60 or less in their previous game. Meanwhile, during the same span, the Falcons have seen the OVER go 25-15 when off a conf. loss and 14-9 when off three or more consec. losses. Seven straight meetings between these teams have produced a minimum of 125 points. Look for this one to finish above the very low number, the OVER improving to 5-0 the past five times that AF hosted a team with a losing road record. |
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02-22-22 | College of Charleston v. Northeastern | Top | 83-72 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on NORTHEASTERN. Off three straight road losses, the Huskies will be happy to return home. While they've really struggled to win on the road, they've been respectable here at home. They beat Towson their last time on this floor. The Cougars are off b2b losses of their own. Last time out, they lost a tough 80-77 decision. They give up more than 77 ppg on the road and they're 5-7 ATS their last 12, after allowing 80 or more points in their previous game. Playing at home, the Cougars won big in this season's first meeting. The Huskies, 3-1 ATS the last four times that they attemped to avenge a road loss, haven't forgotten. Prior to that, the Huskies had beaten them five straight times. Look for them to bounce back and move to 5-1 ATS their last six in the series. |
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02-21-22 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State OVER 138.5 | Top | 66-64 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on Baylor/Ok. State OVER the total. When these teams met last month, the O/U line was in the 140s. In fact, the past four meetings all had O.U lines in the 140s. This one is in the high 130s. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. While last month's game was low-scoring, the previous five meetings between these teams all finished above the number. Baylor's last two visits here had combined scores of 147 and 143. The Cowboys are off an 82-79 win over Kansas. Admittedly, that score was a little misleading as it went to OT. I'm more focused on the fact that the Cowboys won but failed to cover the spread. That's worth mentioning as the OVER is a perfect 4-0 the past four times that they were off an ATS loss. Also, the OVER is 16-9 the past 25 times that they were off a (SU) conference win. Six of Baylor's nine true road games have finished above the total. The Bears have scored more than 70 points in each of their past four and seven of their past eight. On the season, Baylor averages 73.1 ppg on the road. Meanwhile, OK State averages 73.1 ppg at home. Factoring in the Kansas result, the OVER is 24-10 the last 34 times that the Cowboys faced a team with a winning record, after at least 15 games of the season have been played. |
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02-20-22 | Stony Brook v. Hartford UNDER 146 | Top | 70-74 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on Stony Brook/Hartford UNDER the total. These teams just played a high-scoring game against each other yesterday. Playing each other for the second time in two days, I'm expecting a considerably lower-scoring affair today. Stony Brook scores fewer points per game on the road, than it does at home. Hartford scores (very slightly) less points at home, while also allowing less. The last two meetings between these teams, played at Harftord, finished with 131 and 133 points. In fact, before yesterday, these teams had played six straight 'unders' against each other. None of those six games finished with more than 133 and they averaged just 122. Look for things to return to "normal," as the teams make some defensive adjustments and the final combined score proves lower than many will be expecting. |
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02-19-22 | Long Beach State v. UC-Santa Barbara -4.5 | Top | 71-84 | Win | 100 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on UC SANTA BARBARA. Homecourt means a lot to both these teams. Playing at home, Long Beach State took this season's first meeting. This evening, I expect the revenge-minded Gauchos to return the favor. When playing on the road, the Beach are getting outscored by an average score of 76.7 to 71.2. On the other hand, the Gauchos outscore visiting teams by an average of 76.7 to 59.6. The Gauchos hit a dominant 50.8% of their field goals here while visiting teams only connect on 38% of theirs. Long Beach State has been on an extended ATS winning streak. This will mark a third straight true road game though, the first time LBSU has been in that scheduling situation this season. The first of those came at Hawaii and the most recent was only 48 hours ago. Playing at perhaps the toughest venue in the conference, expect it to catch up to the Beach tonight, the revenge-minded Gauchos pulling away for a double-digit win. |
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02-19-22 | LSU -4.5 v. South Carolina | Top | 75-77 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on LSU. The Gamecocks are off an exciting OT victory. They won't be able to keep it up against a powerful LSU team which is currently hitting on all cylinders. The Tigers dominated Georgia last time out, their third straight win. Darius Days, who had a double-double for the Tigers commented: "When we have all our pieces, we're very hard to beat." While the Gamecocks are fighting hard, they're still a work in progress and they're not going to be ready for the red hot team which they'll encounter this afternoon. Note that the favorite is 6-1-1 ATS the past eight in the series. Going back further finds that the road team is 12-5-1 ATS the past 18 meeting. This has not been a good role for the Gamecocks; they're 1-4 ATS (0-5 SU) the past five times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 6 range. The Tigers are 50-9 SU the past 59 times that they were listed as favorites. Expect them to improve on those stats, covering the relatively small number along the way. |
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02-18-22 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Green Bay OVER 131 | Top | 74-55 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on IPFW/Wisc. Green Bay OVER the total. This is a very low O/U number. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. When these teams played earlier this month, at Fort Wayne, they had a reasonable 66 points by halftime. However, scoring slowed in the second; playing on their homecourt, the favored Mastadons were able to slow things down and stifle the Phoenix. Green Bay is now playing at home though and should be able to keep scoring the whole way. The last two games, between these teams, here had combined scores of 173 and 159. The Mastadons have seen the OVER go a profitable 81-51 over the years, in games which had an O/U line, when they were listed as favorites. That includes a 9-3 OVER mark when listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. Note that IPFW has scored 70 or more in five straight including 102 last time out. The OVER is 73-44 (games which had a total) over the years, when the Mastadons had scored 80 or more in their previous game and 7-1 the past eight times that they reached triple-digits in their previous game. They'll put up another relatively big number. This time, however, playing at home, the Phoenix will do a better job of keeping up. Look for that to lead the final combined score proving higher than many will be expecting. |
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02-17-22 | San Diego v. Portland OVER 136 | Top | 60-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on SD/Portland OVER the total. This O/U line is a bit lower than it was when these teams faced each other at San Diego. I feel that's providing us with excellent line value. Consider that SD plays higher-scoring games on the road than it does at home. The Toreros have seen the OVER go 8-3 on the road. Also, Portland plays higher scoring games at home, than it does on the road. In fact, games here are averaging 149.2 points on the season. Happy to push the pace, the Pilots scored 84 last time out, after scoring 86 in their previous game. With SD having won the first meeting, note that the OVER is 12-7, excluding pushes, the past 2+ seasons, when the Pilots were in the revenge role. Games between these teams, played here at Portland, have been flying over the total in recent seasons. Last year's game here produced 148 points. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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02-16-22 | Kennesaw State v. Florida Gulf Coast -3.5 | Top | 76-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on FLORDIA GULF GOAST. I like how this one sets up for the home team. The Eagles are off an OT win, the type of victory which can provide a team with positive momentum. That was their fourth straight victory. Last time that they were off an OT win, they won their next game by double-digits. On the other hand, the Owls are off a tough 2-point loss, the type of defeat which can be deflating to a team. The Owls won 77-53 in this season's earlier meeting. The Eagles don't get blown out like that often and they've had this game circled, as a result. With a current O/U line of 146 or 146.5, note that the Owls are just 4-7 ATS (0-11 SU!) the past 11 times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 145 to 149.5 range. During the same span, the Eagles were 6-2 ATS (8-0 SU!) when playing a home game with an O/U line in the same range. Payback time. |
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02-15-22 | San Jose State v. Nevada -14.5 | Top | 72-81 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEVADA. Both teams have struggled lately. The Wolf Pack have considerably more talent though and they got back on track in a big way last game. They went on the road and beat Utah State by double-digits, avenging an earlier ugly home loss. That's the type of victory which can provide postitive momentum and I expect that to be the case here. The Spartans, on the other hand, are off yet another double-digit loss. The worst team in the conference has now dropped 12 straight, the vast majority of those losses were of the "blowout variety." These teams will play again, at San Jose State, on Thursday. Knowing this to be the case and with their own losing streak only recently finished, the Wolf Pack will keep the pedal to the metal the entire way in this one. Laying -15.5, the Wolfpack beat the Spartans by 18 in the last meeting. I see an even bigger margin of victory happening tonight. |
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02-14-22 | South Carolina State v. Morgan State -2.5 | Top | 66-76 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on MORGAN STATE. Admittedly, the Bears have underachieved so far this season. There's a long way to go though. Their sub-par results have kept this line very low, despite the fact that they're (arguably) a more talented team, playing at home. The Bears already won the first meeting, at South Carolina State. Remember, Morgan State was the preseason favorite to win the conference with the #1 ranked backcourt and #2 ranked frontcourt. While the Bulldogs are averaging a respectable 70.6 ppg on the road, the Bears are outscoring visiting teams by a 90.6 to 69 average score, here at Morgan State. The Bulldogs have come a long way from last year but they're still not ready to go on the road and beat the Bears. Lay the small number. |
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02-11-22 | Monmouth v. Manhattan +5.5 | Top | 75-65 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
I'm playing on MANHATTAN. The Hawks won big when these teams met at Monmouth. Playing on their home floor, I expect the revenge-minded Jaspers to give them all that they can handle. Note that two meetings here last season were both very close, decided by two and five points, respectively. The Hawks haven't been playing well lately. They're 1-4 ATS their last five games, hitting only 37.5% of their field goals, during that 5-game stretch. Last time out, the Hawks got destroyed 83-58 by Marist, a team which Manhattan recently defeated. (The Hawks were also hammered by Marist earlier in the season and followed up the loss by losing their next game.) On the season, the Hawks average 68 ppg on the road, while hitting 43% of their field goals. On the other hand, the Jaspers average 75.7 ppg at home while connecting on 49.4% of their field goals. The Hawks are 4-7-1 ATS their last 12 as road favorites in the -3.5 to -6.5 range. During that span, the Jaspers are 4-2 ATS after having failed to cover their previous three games. Grab the points with the revenge-minded home team. |
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02-10-22 | Georgia Southern v. Appalachian State OVER 124 | Top | 61-65 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
I'm playing on Georgia Southern / App State Over the total. This is a very low O/U line. I believe it'll prove to be too low. Note that the Mountaineers, who average more than 71 ppg at home, have seen the OVER go 23-10 the past 33 times that they played a game with an O/U line in the 120s. Georgia Southern conf. games average 129.5 points. App State's conf games average 131. This season's earlier meeting had an O/U line of 131 and finished with 132. Four of the past five meetings have finished with at least 129 points. This one will, too. |
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02-09-22 | Pittsburgh v. Florida State -10.5 | Top | 56-51 | Loss | -108 | 28 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on FSU. Both teams are on 4-game losing streaks. Playing at home, Florida State will be the team that snaps its skid. Due largely to injury issues, the Seminoles have under-achieved so far this season. This is still a really well-coached and talented team though. The same cannot be said of Pittsburgh. I expect a date with the Panthers, 0-5 ATS their last five as road underdogs, to prove to be just what the doctor ordered. Note that all five of those road losses came by a minimum of 13 points, most by a lot more than that. Yes, the Noles remain banged-up. They're a deep team though and that depth will serve them well here. Keep in mind that the Panthers scored only 47 points in getting blown out last time. As Pitt coach Jeff Capel acknowledged after that game: "... It's not going to get easier ... " While the Panthers average less than 60 ppg on the road, the Noles still average a respectable 76.6 ppg at home. The home team is 3-0-1 ATS the past four in the series. The Noles were laying -10.5 for the last meeting here and won by 15. Desperate for a victory, they won't let this opportunity slip by. Expect another blowout. |
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02-08-22 | Air Force v. UNLV -10 | Top | 44-78 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on UNLV. The Falcons are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off a blowout loss at Utah State, the Rebels will be looking to take out their anger on someone. They're 3-1 ATS/4-0 SU off a conference loss. The Utah State loss was the Rebels' third double-digit defeat since 12/4. After the first, they bounced back with a 20-point home win. After the second, they bounced back and beat a strong Colorado State team, on the road, by 14. Air Force, which is off b2b double-digit losses and which is averaging only 56 ppg on the road, is just 1-6 ATS the past seven times it was a road underdog in the 6.5 to 9 point range. The Rebels beat Nevada by 11 the last time that they were on this floor. They beat Air Force 80-52 the last time that the teams played here. Knowing that their next two are on the road, look for the Rebels to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. |
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02-07-22 | Northern Arizona v. Northern Colorado -10 | Top | 60-82 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on NORTHERN COLORADO. These teams just met on Saturday, at Northern Arizona. The Lumberjacks had a great shot at holding serve at home, as they had a 5-point lead at halftime. Ultimately, however, the Bears won by three. Having come that close, only to fall short, stings and will take a toll on the Lumberjacks. They had their opportunity to salvage a split in this 2-game home-and-home series but they failed to capitalize. Now, that opportunity has passed them by. The Bears are the superior team and they're considerably stronger at home. They average 82.2 ppg (48.8% field goals) here. The Lumberjacks, on the other hand, average 62.7 ppg (38.6% field goals) on the road. With an O/U line currently in the high 140s, note that the Lumberjacks are 0-4-1 ATS (0-5 SU) the past five times that they played a road game with an O/U line ranging from 145 to 149.5. The Bears had their wake-up call Saturday. Tonight, they'll deliver a blowout. |
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02-07-22 | Temple v. South Florida OVER 123.5 | Top | 49-52 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on USF/Temple OVER the total. Recent low-scoring results have rewarded us with a very low O/U number. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. These teams met three times in 2021. All three meetings had O/U lines in the 130s. Those games averaged more than 138 points. While USF games have admittedly been low-scoring, they're still averaging more than 121 points. Add that to Temple's 132.5 average score and we get a combined average higher than the O/U line. Importantly, it should be noted that USF scores have been higher since the Bulls hit conference play. Their AAC games averaging more than 129 points. While the Owls allowed only 58 points in Saturday's home win, they've seen the OVER go 4-1 after allowing 60 or fewer points. In a game where both teams should be fighting (scoring) until the final buzzer, look for those 'over' stats to improve this evening. |
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02-06-22 | Washington v. Stanford -4.5 | Top | 69-87 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on STANFORD. While they came up short vs. Washington State last time out, the Cardinal have won three of their last five. They nearly beat the Huskies up in Seattle. Washington ultimately won by three points. Catching them on their home floor, I expect the revenge-minded Cardinal to get some payback. The game in Seattle had an O/U line in the low 140s. With today's rematch being played at Stanford, where a stingy Cardinal team can more effectively dictate the pace, the O/U line is in the mid 130s. That's noteworthy as Washington is an ugly 11-27 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when playing a game with an O/U line in the 130s. Note that Washington allows 76.6 ppg on the road while Stanford allows 66.4 ppg at home. While the Huskies won at Cal last time out, they lost by 14, the last time that they were off a road win. The Cardinal, 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS its last three when attempting to avenge a road loss, have dominated the Huskies here for years. They're 4-1 SU/ATS the past five meetings overall and they won the most recent meeting here at Stanford by 16. I'm expecting them to pull away for another win and cover this afternoon. |
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02-05-22 | Navy v. Loyola Maryland OVER 125.5 | Top | 56-55 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on Navy/Loyola MD OVER the total. Admittedly, both these teams can be pretty stingy. That's factored into the low O/U line, of course. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Keep in mind that they both still average nearly 70 points per game. The Midshipmen have seen the OVER go 7-4 on the road and that includes a 4-2 OVER mark in road games when the O/U line was in the 120s. Off their fourth loss in the Patriot League play, its noteworthy that the OVER is a perfect 3-0 when the Midshipmen were off a conference loss. After those previous three times that they were off a conf. loss, their next game had scores of 72-64, 74-73, 81-63. Each of those finished comfortably above the total. These teams combined for 144 last March. The most recent meeting here at Loyola had a final score of 73-67. The previous meeting here before that had a score of 79-73. All those finished well above the number, too. More of the same today. |
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02-05-22 | Nebraska-Omaha v. North Dakota -2.5 | Top | 85-92 | Win | 100 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on North Dakota. These teams have equally poor W/L records. The Mavericks are 4-19, the Fighting Hawks are 4-20. Those similar numbers have kept the pointspread reasonably low. While I'm aware that the Mavs have enjoyed success as small road underdogs over the years, I feel that this line could easily be higher. The reality is that the Fighting Hawks are stronger on both sides of the ball this season, at least when playing on their home floor. They average 72.9 ppg at home and allow 72.5. The Mavs, on the other hand, score 59.2 ppg on the road and allow 85.3. They're 0-11 away from home. The Mavs already hammered the Hawks, at Omaha. They also won last season's first meeting. However, North Dakota bounced back and won the second game by double-digits. Today, the revenge-minded Fighting Hawks will leave it all on the floor, avenging the earlier loss and covering the small number along the way. |
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02-04-22 | Quinnipiac v. St. Peter's OVER 136.5 | Top | 74-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on Quinnipiac/Saint Peter's OVER the total. These teams played a relatively low-scoring game (69-59) against each other, at Quinnipiac, earlier in the season. That was more than two months ago now though and the Bobcats play higher-scoring games on the road than they do at home. I'm expecting a considerably higher-scoring affair this evening. Note that the O/U line was in the 130s the last time that the teams played here, yet they combined for 156 points. While the Peacocks have admittedly been stingy, they're facing a Bobcat team which has seen its road games average greater than 150 points. The Bobcats allow 77.4 ppg on the road, host teams hitting 47% of their field goals. Note that the OVER is 7-3 when Qunnipiac is an underdog. Saint Peter's is off its third conference loss. After each of the first two losses, the Peacocks next game finished above the number. Expect this one to do the same. |
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02-03-22 | Louisiana Tech v. Florida Atlantic OVER 141 | Top | 73-83 | Win | 100 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA Tech/FAU to finish OVER the total. The Owls like to play at a fast pace. Playing at home will help them dictate that tempo. They've scored 71, 78, 96, 71, 78, 84, 76 and 83 in eight home games, since 12/1. So, more than 70 in every recent game here. On the season, they're averaging 79 at home, hitting 48.8% of their field goals. The Bulldogs are (small) favorites for a reason though. They're a tough team, one which is fully capable of putting up big points on the road. They scored 76 and 79 in their last two road games. Though they managed only 62 points in losing their last game, the Bulldogs had scored at least 76 in each of their previous five games. On the season, they're averaging 78. Also, the last three times that the Bulldogs were off a loss, they responded by scoring 87, 99 and 80 points in their next game. Last season's lone meeting finished above the total. The OVER is also 5-1-1 the past seven times that FAU faced a team which had a winning percentage greater than .600. The OVER is also 13-7 the past 20 times that the Owls were coming off a victory. Expect a high-scoring affair. |
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02-02-22 | Dayton v. VCU OVER 120 | Top | 82-52 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on Dayton/VCU OVER the total. These are two stingy teams. They already played a low-scoring game against each other; each has been involved in a number of recent 'unders.' Those results have rewarded us with a very low O/U number. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Last year, as they did this year, these teams played a low-scoring game against each other in January. Last January's game had a combined score of 109. This year's finished at 105. However, when these teams had their "rematch" in February, they combined for 143 points, all of them in regulation. Then, for good measure, they combined for 141, again all in regulation, in the A-10 tournament. Note that all last year's O/U lines were in the 130s. Looking at the past 10 meetings, seven of which finished 'over' the total, shows that this is the lowest O/U line. Even this season's earlier meeting was 124, which was far lower than any of the previous ones. The OVER is 6-0-1 the past seven times that Dayton failed to score more than 60 points in its previous game. Going back further finds the OVER at a profitable 65-38, excluding pushes, when the Flyers were in that situation. Like last year, look for this year's rematch to prove higher-scoring than the first meeting, the teams combining for enough to finish above the very low number. |
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02-01-22 | Davidson v. St Bonaventure -3 | Top | 81-76 | Loss | -117 | 23 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on ST. BONAVENTURE. I used the Bonnies as my A-10 GOY on 1/15, in their game against VCU. Listed as small favorites, they hammered the Rams by a 73-53 score. I started my analysis of that game by saying the following: "Recent struggles at the betting window for the Bonnies have worked in our favor in keeping this line lower than it otherwise could have been. I feel that a visit from the Rams will be just what the doctor ordered for the talented hosts and that they're providing us with excellent value. The Bonnies are 5-1 at home. Every victory has been by at least three points. The last time that they were small home favorites, less than -3, they hammered Marquette by a 70-54 score. They've also beaten Boise, Buffalo, Clemson while favored at home, by less than four points ..." I provided that excerpt as I feel much the same way. Once again, the Bonnies' struggles at the betting window have kept this line reasonably low, providing excellent value. Once again, I expect a visit from a quality team to be "just what the doctor ordered" to get the Bonnies playing up to their potential. The Bonnies are now 7-1 at home. Despite having hosted some tough teams, they're outscoring their guests by an average score of 77 to 67. The Wildcats embarrassed the Bonnies here in 2020. However, the Bonnies bounced back to win both last year's meetings, including an 11-point win on this floor. Expect them to improve to 40-10 SU the last 50 times that they were favored, covering the small number along the way. |
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01-31-22 | Northern Colorado v. Portland State UNDER 149 | Top | 76-79 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on Northern Colorado/Portland State UNDER the total. Recent high-scoring results have rewarded us with a generously high O/U line. I believe that it'll prove to be too high. Keep in mind that both O/U lines, when these teams faced in 2021, were in the 130s. Those games finished with combined scores of 130 and 138. The Bears are tough but they've been dealing with some scheduling difficulties. This game is, in fact, a make-up for one that was ppd earlier. The Bears also saw Saturday's game vs. Idaho State ppd. Prior to that, they were off a loss to Weber State. The last two times that they were off losses, the Bears held their next opponent to 54 and 70 points. While the Bears are a high-scoring team, they don't score quite as many on the road and they'll face a Portland State team which is capable of being stingy at home. The Vikings last game here was high-scoring, an 85-82 loss vs. Southern Utah. However, that game went to OT. So, the score wasn't quite as obscene as it appears. (It wasn't high-scoring at all in the first half but the Vikings mounted a big comeback to force OT, which led to a high-scoring second.) Also, even factoring in that game finishing above the total, the UNDER is still 7-1 the past eight times that the Vikings were listed as home underdogs. Look for those stats to improve as this one proves lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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01-29-22 | Baylor v. Alabama +2 | Top | 78-87 | Win | 100 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on ALABAMA. The Tide have underachieved of late and are off a disappointing loss. However, this is an extremely talented team and I believe that a visit from Baylor will prove to be just what they need to get going. Note that the subpar results are reflected in the line; we're getting extra line value as a result of them. Alabama coach Nate Oats had this to say: "We continue to have these issues with playing up and down to the level of our competition ..." In this case, with such a high profile visitor, I expect them to "play up" to their competition. Keep in mind that this game will be played at Tuscaloosa; the Tide are 9-1 here on the season. The lone loss was by four points vs. Auburn. While the Tide were favored for the Auburn game, they're 12-6 ATS the last 18 times that they were getting points. To their credit, the Bears have played really well. They've absolutely got another excellent team. That said, they lost a lot from last season, as they only returned one starter. This afternoon, those personnel losses catch up to them as the Tide rise to the occasion and avenge a close loss Waco, three years ago. |
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01-29-22 | Eastern Kentucky v. Stetson OVER 139.5 | Top | 95-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on Eastern Kentucky / Stetson OVER the total. Both teams have been seeing their recent games stay below the total. Those results have rewarded us with a relatively low O/U number. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. The Colonels usually see much higher O/U lines than this. In fact, this is the lowest O/U line they've seen this season. Their last 11 games, which had an O/U line, ranged from 149.5 to 168.5. Their last game had an O/U line of 154.5 and finished with 150. On the season, the Colonels are averaging 80.3 ppg. Stetson isn't well known but this year's team has more talented shooters than recent results would lead one to believe. The Hatters managed a mere 47 points last game. However, they scored 91 in their previous home game. (Eighty-two in regulation.) So, when matched up against a high-scoring team like the one they'll face here, they're absolutely capable of playing a high-scoring, up tempo game. The OVER is 24-11 the past 35 times that Eastern Kentucky played on the road. Expect those stats to improve this afternoon. |
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01-28-22 | Pennsylvania v. Harvard OVER 141.5 | Top | 78-74 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on Penn/Harvard OVER the total. This O/U line came down a bit from its opener. I feel that it'll prove to be too low.The Quakers have seen the OVER go 8-4 as underdogs, 6-3 in true road games. When playing away from home, they're allowing a whopping 78.6 ppg. Opposing teams are hitting 47.9% of their field goals. Harvard, which averages a healthy 77.9 ppg, figures to be licking its chops. The Crimson haven't been playing very good defense of late themselves though. Since hitting conference play, they're allowing 75.9 ppg and an ugly 49.3% defensive field goal percentage. Harvard, which is returning home after having played three straight on the road, has seen the OVER go 5-0 the past five times that it played its previous three games on the road. The Crimson, who gave up 76 points in losing at Cornell, have also seen the OVER go 4-1 the past five times that they were off an Ivy League loss. Going back further finds the OVER at a lucrative 50-28, excluding pushes and in games which had a total, when Harvard was coming off a loss. Expect those stats to improve this afternoon. |
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01-27-22 | East Carolina v. Memphis -13 | Top | 54-71 | Win | 100 | 26 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on MEMPHIS. The Pirates are at the wrong place, at the wrong time. These teams are at the opposite end of the American Athletic Conference. The Tigers are arguably the best team. Certainly, they're among the best. The Pirates are, perhaps, the worst. Indeed, they scored a mere 36 points in their last game, giving up 79. Yes, the Tigers have been dealing with some missing players and that's led to them going through a tough stretch. Still, I like the way that they eked out a road win at Tulsa last game. Now, back home with confidence restored and stepping down in class to face an inferior opponent, I expect them to deliver a blowout. Added motivation stems from the fact they lost by a single point, less than two weeks ago, at East Carolina. Note that the Tigers are 8-4 ATS their last 12, when attempting to avenge a road loss. Off their dismal effort at Houston, note that the Pirates are just 3-10 ATS the past 13 times that they scored 60 or less in their previous game. I say this one gets ugly. |
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01-26-22 | Marquette v. Seton Hall -4 | Top | 73-63 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on SETON HALL. The Golden Eagles have been playing very well. They beat the Pirates by a single point in this season's earlier meeting, at Marquette. The Pirates found out that winning on the road, in the Big East, can be tough. This evening, I expect the Eagles to discover the same. While the Eagles outscore teams by a modest 71.7 to 70.4 average score on the road, the Pirates outscore visiting teams by a dominating 81.6 to 66 margin. The Pirates just lost (badly) to St. John's after having beaten the Red Strom two days earlier. (Sweeping teams in the Big East can be tough, too.) Their previous four home games were against the likes of Villanova, UConn, Rutgers and Texas. So, they've hosted some tough recent opponents. While its a very competitive Big East conference this year, the Pirates are one of the stronger teams in it. They'll remind everyone of that this evening, improving to 10-1 ATS their last 11, when off a double-digit loss at home. |
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01-25-22 | Arizona v. UCLA +2.5 | Top | 59-75 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
I'm playing on UCLA. These are two strong teams and this should be a good game. Though I don't expect to need them, getting points, at home, with the Bruins is providing us with excellent value. Note that UCLA is 3-0 ATS the past three times it was a home underdog of three or less, 13-7 ATS its last 20 in that role. The Bruins were slight favorites when they hosted the Wildcats last season. They won by 14. The Wildcats are off a game Sunday and they're playing their third road game since 1/20. They're just 9-12 ATS their past 21, when playing with one day's rest in between games. UCLA played Saturday, so has had an extra day's worth of rest. While the Cats can score with the best of them, the Bruins are a perfect 5-0 ATS the past five times that they faced a team which scores 77 or more points per game, through the first 15 games of the season. Note that while Arizona averages more ppg overall, the Bruins average more per game at home, than the Cats do on the road. The Bruins had some early season issues with injury and Covid delays etc. However, this team is one of the best in the country and its been slowly rounding into form. A visit from the Wildcats and fans at Pauley Pavilion for the first time in two months will be just what the doctor ordered. *10 UCLA |
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01-24-22 | Texas Tech v. Kansas -6.5 | Top | 91-94 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on KANSAS. The Red Raiders are in the wrong place at the wrong time. Kansas plays with revenge from earlier loss at Lubbock. The Jayhawks are 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) the past couple of seasons, when attempting to avenge an earlier road loss. With Kentucky on deck, they're going to want a big win here. I watched the Red Raiders win over WVU closely and they were fortunate to get the cover. Yet, that result has worked in four favor by helping keep this line a little lower than it easily could have been.That was at home. Now, they're at their least favorite venue; the Jayhawaks 14-3 ATS (16-1 SU) their last 17 as a host in the series. The Raiders won't be helped that they're also suddenly dealing with some Covid issues. Expect the revenge-mined Jayhawks to continue their homecourt dominance in this series, on Monday evening |
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01-24-22 | Eastern Washington v. Idaho State +5.5 | Top | 89-63 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing on IDAHO STATE. Prior to the season, the Bengals were projected to finish ahead of the Eagles. Now, though we're still in January, the Eagles are laying a handful of points against them, despite the game being played at Idaho State. I believe that's asking too much. These teams split a pair of meetings last year; both were at Eastern Washington. The Eagles brought back one starter from that team, the Bengals brought back all five. So, they know that they can compete with and defeat this team. The Bengals' last three games were against Weber State (twice) and Southern Utah. Those are the strongest teams in the conference. So, they weren't expected to win. The Eagles aren't in that class though. I say the Bengals bounce back and move to 7-3 ATS their last 10, after allowing 80 or more points in their previous game. |
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01-22-22 | Howard v. Morgan State +3.5 | Top | 91-82 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on MORGAN STATE. In a game that could be close, I'm happy to get points. That said, I expect the Bears to win this one outright. Both teams have strong frontcourts, perhaps the two best in the MEAC. However, the Bears also possess arguably the best backcourt in the conference. While the team is improved this season, Howard isn't used to laying points on the road. Why? The Bison are 1-5 SU their last six on the road, 2-19 their last 21. Off a tough loss against Notre Dame, a game where they left it all on the floor and their third straight defeat, the Bison still could easily be thinking about what could have been. While the competition has admittedly been soft, a 3-point loss here last game notwithstanding, the Bears have been tough at home. They've handled Howard here over the years; I look for them to dig deep and get it done. |
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01-21-22 | Wagner v. Long Island +3.5 | Top | 92-85 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on LIU. The Seahawks are tough. No question about it. They returned everyone from the team which finished first in the NEC (regular season) last year. They've got arguably the top backcourt in the conference. That said, the Sharks may have the top frontcourt and their pace and style gives the Seahawks trouble. The Sharks faced these same Seahawks twice last season. With all the Covid issues in NYC, both games were at Wagner. Yet, LIU won one outright (77-66) and lost the other by only two points. Now, the Sharks get to host the Seahawks. That's noteworthy as they're undefeated here on the season, 4-1 ATS in lined games. Off a 95-64 beating of Farleigh Dickinson, the Sharks are full of confidence. While Wagner averages 64.7 ppg on the road, LIU averages 87.8 ppg at home. The Sharks won by eight the last time that the teams met here. Grab the points and expect them to again give their guests everything that they can handle. |
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01-20-22 | UCLA v. Utah OVER 143 | Top | 63-58 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on Utah/UCLA OVER the total. The Utes have seen their last four final scores stay beneath the posted total. Those results have worked in our favor by keeping tonight's O/U line a little lower than it easily could have been. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. The Bruins scored 81 points last game. Remember, they rang in 2022 by scoring 96 in their first game of the year. They're going to put up a big number against a defensively-challenged Utah team. With a tougher game on deck, they'll look to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way here. Meanwhile, playing at home, where it shoots better than it does on the road, Utah will keep fighting. At first glance, Utah's defensive stats look reasonable enough. However, that's because they factor in a soft non-conference schedule. Since hitting Pac-12 play, the Utes are allowing an average of 76.9 ppg with their conf. rivals hitting 48.2% of their field goals. While results would have varied, based on when and where one played, the Utes eked out a cover for some in their last game. I mention that, as the OVER is 15-3 the last 18 times that they were off an ATS victory. Either way, the OVER is 3-1 when the Bruins faced a team with a losing record and 6-2 the last eight times that they faced a team with a losing record. Look for those stats to improve this evening. |
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01-19-22 | Georgia v. Auburn UNDER 153.5 | Top | 60-83 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing on Georgia/Auburn UNDER the total. The Tigers have played some high-scoring games recently and that's led to a generously high O/U line. I believe that it'll prove to be too high. Keep in mind that seven of Auburn's last eight games had O/U lines in the 130s of 140s. The one which had an O/U line in the 150s (at Alabama) snuck over the total by a bucket. That was against a strong Alabama team which could match the Tigers in scoring. They won't get that from the Bulldogs. Georgia scored 66 last time out. That's the fifth straight game where the Bulldogs failed to reach 80 points. That includes a game where the Bulldogs managed a mere 60 pts against Gardner Webb. They average 66.8 ppg on the road and they've seen the UNDER go 4-1 the past five times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 150 to 154.5 range. Look for them to have trouble scoring (Auburn hasn't forgotten that Georgia won here last season) and for those 'under' stats to improve this evening. |
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01-19-22 | Bradley v. Drake -6.5 | Top | 83-71 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on DRAKE. The Bulldogs have been winning but not covering. Those results have worked in our favor, as they've kept the pointspread reasonable. As I'm expecting a double-digit win, I feel we're getting excellent value. Note that Drake is a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS its last three, as a home favorite in the -6.5 to -9 range. A few narrow ATS losses notwithstanding, the Bulldogs are the real deal. They returned every starter from a team that went 15-3 in the MVC last season, 26-5 overall. The Braves have lost three straight on the road. Last time out, they lost by nine, at Illinois State. This is a much tougher venue and Bulldogs are far stronger than the Redbirds. The Braves are now 10-17-2 ATS (7-22 SU) on the road, the past 2+ seasons. The Braves average less than 70 ppg on the road, the Bulldogs avg more than 80 at home. The Bulldogs beat them by 13 the last time the teams played on this floor. Don't be surprised by an even greater margin of victory tonight. |
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01-18-22 | Cal Poly v. CS Bakersfield -7 | Top | 60-73 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on CSU BAKERSFIELD. The Mustangs were a dismal 1-15 in conference play last season, 4-20 overall. To their credit, they've already matched the four wins this season and have already won a Big West game. That said, it's still going to be another long season and tonight, they're in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Roadrunners have started 0-2 in conference play. With four of their next five on the road, they know that they absolutely need to take advantage of a visit from the Mustangs. The Mustangs managed 82 points last game. However, that was at home and they haven't shot well on the road. Also, note that they're 1-7 SU the past eight time that they scored 80 or more, in their previous game. While Cal Poly averages 60.3 ppg (39.8% fg) shooting on the road, Bakersfield averages 74.6 ppg (45.9% fg) at home. These teams met twice last January. The Roadrunners won by 13 and 17 points. I'm expecting another double-digit victory. |
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01-17-22 | Delaware v. Northeastern +1 | Top | 82-76 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on NORTHEASTERN. I really like the setup for the Huskies. I also really like that we don't need to worry about laying any points. The Huskies just finished a lengthy road trip, one which dated back to last year. They stumbled in their first game back home. They're absolutely going to be desperate for a victory. Keep in mind that the Huskies brought back most of the team which went 8-2 in conference action last year. They're very well-coached and they won't have forgotten that the Blue Hens upset them here last season, or that the Blue Hens hammered them at Delaware last year. I respect the Blue Hens. They also returned a lot from last year and they should be fairly solid within the CAA. That said, this is a tough spot for them. While the Huskies will now be playing their second straight home game, the Blue Hens will be playing the final game of a 5-game road trip. They'll be starting to get road weary and will be looking forward to finally returning home. Off a loss at Hofstra Saturday, note that the Blue Hens are just 8-13 ATS the past 2+ seasons,when playing with one day or less worth of rest between games. The Huskies are 3-1 SU/ATS their last four as home underdogs (or pick'em) of three or fewer points. Expect them to improve on those stats Monday evening. |
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01-16-22 | Niagara v. Iona -10.5 | Top | 55-78 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on IONA. This is a mismatch. The Gaels are much stronger in both the frontcourt and the backcourt. They'll finish at, or near, the top of the MAAC. The Purple Eagles, on the other hand, are likely destined to finish in the middle of the pack, or near the bottom. The Gaels knocked the Eagles out of the (conference) tournament last year, winning by six at a neutral site. This year's Iona team is arguably even stronger. Prior to the season, Rick Pitino acknowledged as much: "... it's a much better team than last year's team." I like that the Gaels have been winning, but not covering, as that has helped in keeping this line a little lower than it otherwise could have been. Note that they're 15-8 ATS the past 2+ seasons, when off a conference win. Consider that Iona was just laying -15.5 against Manhattan, a team arguably more talented than Niagara. I also like that Pitino has been unhappy with his team and demanding more. Afte the 8-point win over Manhattan, he was quoted saying: "I don't think we're playing great basketball right now and that bothers me. Where am I at in the season right now? I'm not pleased. It's up to us to do something about it. We're certainly happy with winning any game. But we're not happy with the way we played against Marist. We're not happy with the way we played against Saint Louis. And we're certainly not happy with the way we shot free throws tonight." With a tough game at Monmouth on deck, I say Pitino keeps the pedal to the metal the entire way in this one. He'll recognize that a blowout win would be great for morale/momentum and that's what I expect his team to deliver this afternoon. |
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01-16-22 | Penn State v. Ohio State UNDER 136.5 | Top | 56-61 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on PSU/OSU UNDER the total. This season's first meeting had an O/U line of 130. That was at Penn State, where the Nittany Lions were able to put up 64 points. The Lions figure to have trouble matching that number on the road. The Lions are playing their best defense in recent memory of late though. Last time out, they allowed just 49 points. They've allowed 74 or fewer points in every game in 2022. The only team to score more than 70 against them was Purdue, which got 74. Penn State has a player (Seth Lundy) who is doing a great job of guarding the opposing team's top player and he'll be charged with slowing down OSU's E.J. Liddell. PSU coach Shrewsberry said this of Lundy: "At the start of the year, there probably wasn't anybody in here that was waving the Seth Lundy all-defensive team flag. Seth Lundy has guarded the best player, or one of the best players, on every single team this year. He's making it tough on people. His athleticism, length, attention to detail -- that attention to detail has really improved." The UNDER is 14-7 the past 21 times that the Lions were off a victory. During that span, the UNDER is also 3-1 when they played a road game with an O/U line in the 135 to 139.5 range. Look for those stats to improve this afternoon. |
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01-15-22 | Idaho v. Idaho State -4 | Top | 74-81 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on IDAHO STATE. The Bengals have been off for some time; their last game was on 1/1. That 2-week break came at the right time. At the time, they were road-weary and not playing their best. The break offered time to recharge and regroup. Facing instate rival Idaho in their first game back is ideal. The Bengals are a respectable team which was playing badly. The Vandals are just a bad team. Idaho State brought back five starters from last season. Idaho brought back one. Those experienced Bengal players will be happy to see a team which they beat won both meetings against last season. (One win came by 26 points. The other was by six.) Both teams are 0-4 to start conference play. However, while the Vandals are allowing 88.2 ppg (49.6% fg) in their four loses, the Bengals are allowing just 68.5 ppg (41.5% fg) in theirs. Look for the Bengals to dictate the tempo and for their superior defense to ultimately lead to a much-needed win and cover. |
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01-14-22 | VCU v. St Bonaventure -2 | Top | 53-73 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on ST. BONAVENTURE. Recent struggles at the betting window for the Bonnies have worked in our favor in keeping this line lower than it otherwise could have been. I feel that a visit from the Rams will be just what the doctor ordered for the talented hosts and that they're providing us with excellent value. The Bonnies are 5-1 at home. Every victory has been by at least three points. The last time that they were small home favorites, less than -3, they hammered Marquette by a 70-54 score. They've also beaten Boise, Buffalo, Clemson while favored at home, by leass than four points. The Rams are 0-3 ATS the past three times that they road underdogs of three or fewer points. They're 18-29 ATS their last 47 in that role. While the Rams are stingy on defense, they average only 63 points per game on offense. The Bonnies are averaging more than 70, more than 78 per game, here at home. The Bonnies make 47.7% of their field goals here compared to 41.2% on the road for VCU. The last meeting on this floor saw the Bonnies favored by three points. They won by a 70-54 score. The Rams' roll comes to an end here. |
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01-13-22 | Colgate +4.5 v. Navy | Top | 69-50 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on COLGATE. I won with the Raiders in their last game. They crushed Army, 76-57. That victory snapped a losing streak and I expect it to provide positive momentum for the longtime class of the Patriot Conference. The Raiders went 50-16 the past four years in conference play. During that span, they became the first team in conference history to reach the championship game in four straight years. This year's team is flying under the radar at the moment, in my opinion. Keep in mind that the Raiders brought back four starters from last year. They're a well-coached and complete team. Navy is indeed tougher than Army. However, the Raiders can absolutely win this game outright. They beat the Midshipmen by seven points, each of the past two meetings. Navy's Greg Summers is questionable. With or without him, expect the Midshipmen to have their hands full the entire way. Grab the points but don't be surprised when the visitors score the outright win. |
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01-12-22 | St. John's v. Connecticut UNDER 150.5 | Top | 78-86 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on St. John's/UConn UNDER the total. When these teams faced each other last season, the O/U line was 140.5. With the Red Storm making 46.7% of their 3-point shots, the teams combined for 144 points. This evening, we're working with a considerably higher O/U number. I believe it'll prove to be too high. Even with last year's game finishing above the number, the Red Storm have seen the UNDER go 13-8 on the road, the past couple of seasons. Going back further finds the UNDER at 15-8 when they were road underdogs in the 9.5 to 12 range. While the Huskies can score, they're also very stingy. They're allowing just 54.9 ppg here, visiting teams connecting on only 36.8% of their field goals. The Huskies will be determined not to let the Red Storm shoot as well as they did here last season. The Red Storm, for their part, know that they gave the Huskies real trouble last season and they'll be looking for a similar defensive effort. Look for the UNDER to improve to 5-2 the past seven times that UConn scored 80 or more points, in its previous game. |