Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09-26-21 | Packers v. 49ers -3.5 | 30-28 | Loss | -100 | 107 h 26 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SF. I won with the Packers on Monday night. That was against the Lions though. Now, they play on a short week against a much tougher team. I expect them to struggle. The Packers were obviously better than they showed against the Saints in Week 1. However, that 38-3 beating did expose some weaknesses, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Now, they'll take on a stingy SF team, one which is already 2-0 and one which is fired up for its home opener. Last week, the 49ers held the Eagles to only 11 points. The favorite is 4-1 ATS the past five times that these teams faced each other, the home team winning each of the past four meeetings. The past two here at SF, games in 2019 and 2020, saw the 49'ers win by scores of 37-20 and 37-8. I expect another win and cover on Sunday night. |
|||||||
09-26-21 | Packers v. 49ers UNDER 50.5 | 30-28 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
I'm playing on GB/SF UNDER the total for the first half. The 49'ers check in off a 19-11 win over the Eagles. They're going to try and establish the run early. Their 33 rushing attempts per game is second in the entire NFL. Those frequent running plays will help keep the clock moving. The Packers bounced back from their Week 1 beating (they only scored three points for the entire game) to beat up on Detroit last game. The defense looked a bit shaky out of the gate but got going as the game progressed. That should provide some early positive momentum for the defense. Like their hosts, the Pack will want to try and establish the run early. Two of the three meetings since 2019 have seen 24 or fewer points scored by halftime. Look for this one to do the same. |
|||||||
09-26-21 | Ravens v. Lions UNDER 50 | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 124 h 46 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Baltimore/Detroit UNDER the total. When choosing an 'under,' I typically want teams which are going to run the ball regularly. After all, that helps keep the clock moving. In this game, I expect a heavy dose of the run from both teams. Averaging 37.5 rushing attempts per game, the Ravens run the ball the most in the NFL, so far this season. Indeed, the Ravens are averaging 220 yards per game on the ground and the #2 team is averaging 162. The Ravens' defensive stats are a bit misleading due to the fact that they just got into a shootout against the Chiefs and an OT game against the Raiders. Needless to say, the Lions' offense isn't as dangerous as the Chiefs offense, or the Raiders offense. While Goff and co. admittedly started pretty well against Green Bay, they quickly came back to earth in the second half. The Lions would finish with 17 points for the game. Scoring figures to be tough for them again. That said, they're going to want to establish the run themselves, to try and keep Jackson on the sidelines. All things considered, this number is generously high. Look for the clock to keep moving and for the final score to prove lower than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
09-26-21 | Cardinals v. Jaguars +8 | 31-19 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE. The Cards have certainly gotten off to the better start. That's led to them laying a big number here. For an early road game, against a hungry Jags team, I believe it'll prove to be too much. In fact, I won't be surprised to see Jacksonville break through and finally win one. Keep in mind that the Cards only won by one last game (34-33) and that they are 0-5 ATS the past five times that they were off a game where they scored 30 or more points. With big division games (Rams and SF) on deck, it should be easy to look past lowly Jacksonville. The Jags, on the other hand, are desperate for a victory; their full attention will be on the task at hand. The last meeting between these teams was decided by a field goal, a 17-14 win for the Cards. Look for this one to also prove much closer than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
09-26-21 | Falcons v. Giants -3 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -100 | 119 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on the NY GIANTS. Both these teams are 0-2. History tells us that 0-2 teams rarely make the playoffs. From 1990 to 2019, only 12% of 0-2 teams made the playoffs. Last season, 0-2 teams were 0-fer-11, in terms of making the playoffs. These teams were both among them. This year, with the addition of a 17th game and an expanded bracket, it's possible that an 0-2 team (or teams) will make it. That said, the Falcons know it probably won't be them. They played better than the final score indicated last week but still made mistakes and lost by 23 points. Their -49 point differential is the worst in the entire league. Knowing that the three teams ahead of them in the division are already a combined 5-1 figures to be disheartening. Playing in the NFC East, where every team already has a loss, the Giants have considerably more hope. Remember, Washington won the division with a 7-9 record last season. That extra optimism should serve them well here. Importantly, I believe that they match up very well against the Falcons. The Giants are averaging six yards per play, the Falcons are averaging 4.7 ypp. Note that Atlanta corner A.J. Terrell left the last game with a concussion, which is a big blow to the secondary. Homefield also works in New York's favor. Additionally, I like the fact that the Giants have had a couple of extra day's worth of rest and preparation time, due to playing on Thursday last week. With the Falcons just 4-13 ATS the past 17 times that they played a game with a line ranging from -3 to +3, I'm laying the short number with the home team. |
|||||||
09-25-21 | Colorado v. Arizona State OVER 44.5 | Top | 13-35 | Win | 100 | 101 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on Colorado/ASU OVER the total. This is a very low total. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Keep in mind that last year's game had an O/U line of 49 and finished with 65 combined points. In fact, each of the last 10 meetings between these teams produced a minimum of 47 combined points. None of those games had an O/U line this low. That leads one to question WHY this O/U line is so low. That's, in large part, due to Colorado's offensive futility. While its true that the Buffaloes have indeed struggled to score, that's not going to continue. It helps that the Colorado offense won't have to contend with ASU's defensive end Travis Moore, who got hurt in the BYU game. That's the second defensive lineman that the Sun Devils have lost. ASU's offense has no problems though. Already averaging 31.7 ppg, the Sun Devils now get back running back Chip Trayanum (as well as return specialist D.J. Taylor.) Four of the last five meetings here have finished above the number. Additionally, the OVER is 5-1 the last six times that the Buffaloes were listed as underdogs. Expect those stats to improve Saturday night. |
|||||||
09-25-21 | California v. Washington -7 | Top | 24-31 | Push | 0 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. I had this game circled when the schedule came out. I've wanted to play it since the line came out but have waited patiently for it to come down. The reality is, however, that I'm expecting a convincing double-digit win for the Huskies. This year's team is loaded, stronger than many realize; they got on track in a big way last week. That 52-3 beating of Arkansas State gives them plenty of confidence and positive momentum. The Bears' lone victory came last week against Sacramento State - and they gave up more than 400 passing yards in the process. The previous week, they gave up 271 yards on the ground. Indeed, this is a porous Cal defense and Washington will put up a big number. Considering that the Huskies have allowed 13 and three points in their two games, I don't believe that the Bears will be able to keep up. The Bears have won b2b closes one in the series. Tonight, their vastly superior defense making the difference, the Huskies avenge those losses in blowout fashion. |
|||||||
09-25-21 | Louisville v. Florida State +1 | 31-23 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
I'm playing on FSU. I like the Seminoles to score the minor upset this afternoon. With an 0-3 record for the first time since 1976, everyone is pretty down on the Noles at the moment. Yes, losing to Jacksonville State is pretty sad. However, "letdowns" do happen to college teams and the Noles had just left it all on the field in a heartbreaking loss against Notre Dame. Last game, the Noles were beaten up on the road against Wake Forest. As we saw last night, however, the Deacons have a strong team this season. So, the losses against Notre Dame and at Wake Forest weren't unexpected. And the loss against Jacksonville State, though inexcusable, still "made sense." Keep in mind that FSU brought back 17 players from last year's team and that their coach is in his second year here. One of last year's worst losses came at the hands of these same Cardinals, at Louisville. Unlike the Noles, the Cardinals lost quite a lot from last year's team. They got pounded in their lone road game; they're just 2-8 their last 10 on the road. I say the Noles dig deep, get some payback from last year, and avoid the dreaded 0-4 start. |
|||||||
09-25-21 | Miami-OH v. Army UNDER 49 | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 18 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Army/Miami Ohio UNDER the total. The Knights have seen all three of their games finish above the total thus far. I expect that to change Saturday afternoon. Miami allowed just seven points last game, a 42-7 win. As per usual, Army is going to run the ball. The Redhawks won't be able to stop the Knights ground game but their veteran linebackers will make things more difficult than Army's first few opponents. The Redhawks, who know full well what to expect Army to bring to the table, are among the leaders in their conference at making tackles for losses. Note that the UNDER is 8-1 the past nine times that the Redhawks were off a SU victory. I see those stats improving here. Look for the clock to keep moving and the final score to prove lower than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
09-24-21 | Wake Forest +4 v. Virginia | Top | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 69 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on WAKE FOREST. I won with the Cavaliers in their blowout win over Illinois. However, UNC brought them back down to earth last week and I expect them to have their hands full again on Friday night. Wake Forest beat Virginia 40-23 last season. This year's team is even better, as the Deacons returned 20 starters from last year's team. While the Cavs were getting beaten up by the Tar Heels last week, the Deacons are off a confidence-building 35-14 beatdown of Florida State. Indeed, this team is better than many may yet realize. Note that WF is 5-1 ATS its last six, when coming off a SU victory. Including last year's victory, the Deacons are a perfect 6-0 ATS the past six meetings in the series. (They've won the last four meetings outright and the two before that were losses of one point and three points.) The Cavs will eventually snap that streak. Just not on Friday night. Grab the points. |
|||||||
09-23-21 | Panthers v. Texans UNDER 44 | Top | 24-9 | Win | 100 | 60 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on Houston/Carolina UNDER the total. When choosing an 'under,' I typically want teams which are going to run the ball regularly. After all, that helps keep the clock moving. In this game, I expect a heavy dose of the run from both teams. Averaging 34.5 rushing attempts per game, the Texans run the ball the second most in the NFL, so far this season. (Only Baltimore has more rushing attempts per game.) The Panthers also like to pound the ball on the ground. With 30 rushing attempts per game, they're currently tied with a few other teams for the 5th most carries per game. That said, Carolina has a 2-0 record, thanks to its defense. Through two games, the Panthers are allowing just 10.5 points per game. That's the best defense, in terms of points allowed per game, in the entire league. Their 190 yards allowed per game also ranks #1 and their 4.1 yards per play ranks #2, second to only Buffalo. That's after the Panthers had just faced the Saints, too. (Remember, the Saints dropped 38 on Green Bay in Week 1.) On the other side of the ball, averaging 22.5 ppg, the Panthers' offense ranks only #19 in terms of points per game. These teams combined for 26 points (16-10 final) when they met in 2019. All three meetings over the past 10 years have produced 41 or fewer points. Expect another relatively low-scoring affair. |
|||||||
09-23-21 | Marshall v. Appalachian State UNDER 59.5 | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -112 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on Marshall/Appalachian State UNDER the total. These teams combined for only 24 points when they faced each other last season, a 17-7 win for Marshall. The Thundering Herd check into this year's rematch off a high-scoring game against East Carolina. However, that's not typical for them. In their first two games, the Herd allowed just seven and 10 points. App. State is also a stingy team. Despite playing at Miami (and also having faced East Carolina) the Mountaineers have allowed just 19, 25 and 10 points. Off a 44-10 blowout victory, note that the UNDER is a perfect 5-0 the past five times that the Mountaineers were off a win of 20 or more points. Expect another relatively low-scoring affair. |
|||||||
09-20-21 | Lions v. Packers -11.5 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on GB. As you probably saw, or heard, the Packers got hammered by the Saints in their opener. The Lions showed a little more life; they still lost but rallied from a big deficit to earn a backdoor cover. We know that the Packers have been the much better team for many years. That's very unlikely to change this season. The big question is, how will they react to the Week 1 beating? History suggests that they'll "bounce back big." The Packers were money off an ATS loss last season. They're also a perfect 5-0 ATS the last five times that they had scored 15 or fewer points in their previous game. After scoring 10 points against Tampa last October, the Pack bounced back and scored 35 the next game, a 35-20 blowout win at Houston. Prior to that, after the 49'ers held them to eight points, the Pack responded with a 31-13 destruction of the Giants. A few weeks earlier, they had managed only 11 points against the Chargers. They immediately bounced back with a win and cover at Carolina. You get the idea. The "rebuilding" Lions are the perfect opponent to "bounce back" against. These teams met here exactly one year ago, to the day. The Packers doubled Detroit in that 9/20/20 game, a 42-21 rout. History repeats itself tonight. |
|||||||
09-19-21 | Chiefs v. Ravens UNDER 54.5 | Top | 35-36 | Loss | -106 | 36 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on KC/Baltimore UNDER the total. When most think Chiefs/Ravens, they think of Mahomes and Jackson going h2h, each putting up a ton of points. Some forget that these are two capable defenses and that both teams are going to do their best to control the clock and keep the opposing offense off the field. Prior to their Week 1 (OT) game against the Raiders, the Ravens had seen their previous four games finished with 40, 41, 33 and 20 combined points. In their last three home games, they allowed 13, 14 and 17 points. Baltimore ran the ball 34 times for 189 yards against Oakland. The Ravens will try and employ a similar strategy to help keep Mahomes off the field. As you know, running the ball tends to keep the clock moving. Speaking of running the ball, the UNDER is a perfect 4-0 the past four times that the Ravens rushed for 150 or more yards in their previous game. Expect those stats to improve tonight. |
|||||||
09-19-21 | Titans +6.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 33-30 | Win | 100 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on TENNESSEE. (First Half) The Titans were embarrassed by their Week 1 effort. They're going to come out swinging right from the opening kickoff. Note that they're 7-0 SU the past seven times that they were off a double-digit loss; four of those wins were on the road, too. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are 1-5 ATS their last six, when off an ATS win. These teams have met three times since 2010. All three meetings were within a field goal at halftime. Scores were 9-7, 10-7 and 7-7. We're working with more than a field goal and I expect this one to also be close, at the break. |
|||||||
09-19-21 | Bengals v. Bears -135 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm playing CHICAGO on the moneyline. Last week, I played on the Carolina Panthers against the Jets. NY had its "quarterback of the future" going against its "quarterback of the past." I mentioned that the "QB of the past" (Darnold) had more to work with though and that his team was playing at home. This game sets up similarly in that the Joe Burrow and the Bengals are up against their longtime QB of the past, Andy Dalton. While Dalton may not have too many more wins left in his career, obviously, this is one he absolutely wants to have. The Bears are playing at home. Off a loss, they're going to be hungry and desperate. Remember, the Bengals are still just 1-13 SU their past 14 road games, 6-23 SU their last 29 as underdogs. Expect Dalton and the Bears to dig deep and get it done. |
|||||||
09-19-21 | Texans v. Browns UNDER 48 | 21-31 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Clev/Houston UNDER the total. These teams both started the season with an 'over.' Those results have helped to keep this week's O/U line generously high. I believe it'll prove to be too high. While the Texans put up a big number against the Jags, scoring figures to be much harder to come by this week and going forward. The Texans want to run the ball but the Browns held the Chiefs to just 73 yards on the ground. These teams played last year. The O/U line was 46.5 and they combined for only 17 points. Including that result, the UNDER is 8-2 the past 10 meetings, 4-0 the past four here at Cleveland. All four games finished with 44 or fewer points and the last three had combined scores of 17, 30 and 22. Expect another relatively low-scoring affair. |
|||||||
09-18-21 | Charlotte v. Georgia State -180 | 9-20 | Win | 100 | 31 h 41 m | Show | |
I'm playing GEORGIA STATE on the moneyline. The Panthers had a very tough opening schedule. Their first two games came against Army and at North Carolina. They didn't play well in losing against Army but stumbling against UNC was expected. After this game, the Panthers play at Auburn. Next, is Appalachian State. In other words, they absolutely need to win this game. Or, they'll quickly find themselves 0-4 and looking at possibly going 0-5. Not what they had in mind, considering that they were 6-4 last season and considering that they returned 19 starters. Charlotte absolutely represents a big step down in class and is a team that the Panthers can handle. Charlotte is just 8-26 SU its past 34 on the road, 13-43 SU its past 56 as an underdog. Panthers win. |
|||||||
09-18-21 | Arkansas State v. Washington -17 | 3-52 | Win | 100 | 29 h 11 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Red Wolves are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off b2b losses, the Huskies are going to be in a very angry mood. Arkansas State left it all on the field last game but ultimately came up short, a tough 55-50 loss against Memphis. The Red Wolves had a late rally and finished the game with an edge in stats. Still, to lose that type of game stings. Now, they travel West to take on a superior opponent that will show them no mercy. Keep in mind that the Red Wolves are 1-7 ATS the past eight times that they had allowed 40 or more points in their previous game. The Red Wolves' strength is their passing attack. However, the Huskies haven't given up a TD through the air yet and are only giving up 74.5 ypg (#1 in the country) through the air. Yes, the Washington offense has struggled thus far. The Red Wolves defense is weak against both the run and the pass though and provides a perfect opportunity to get healthy. Washington's superior offensive and defensive line play proves significant, the Huskies getting back on track in blowout fashion. |
|||||||
09-18-21 | Virginia Tech v. West Virginia -2.5 | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 28 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WVU. I won with the Hokies when they upset UNC. So, I'm fully aware that they're a capable team. That was at home though, where the Hokies enjoy a great homefield advantage. Now, they're on the road, facing an upset and experienced WVU team. Yet, the Hokies are getting far fewer points than they were at home against the Tar Heels. Note that they're just 2-4 SU/ATS the past six times that they played a game where the line ranged from +3 to -3. They're also 1-6 ATS their last seven on the road and 0-4 ATS after allowing 280 or more passing yards in their previous game. Additionally, note that depth at receiever is a bit of an issue for the Hokies with tight-end Mitchell out with injury. Off its loss at Maryland, the Mountaineers took out some of their anger on LIU, delivering a 66-0 thrashing. That'll give them plenty of confidence going into this one but they're still mad from the Maryland loss. They're 9-1-1 ATS their last 11 as home favorites, 6-0-1 ATS ther last seven at home. Expect them to improve on those stats Sat. afternoon. |
|||||||
09-18-21 | Michigan State v. Miami-FL -6 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on MIAMI. At first glance, it may appear that the Spartans are off to a much better start than the Hurricanes. They're 2-0 SU/ATS while Miami is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS. Those records aren't surprising though. The Spartans beat Northwestern but they were catching the Wildcats playing their first game, after losing most of their offense from last year. So, a nice win, but not entirely shocking. Their next game was against Youngstown State. So, winning that game was obviously expected. Miami has played much tougher competition. The Canes first game was vs Alabama. So, a loss wasn't that surprising. Next was Appalachian State. Though they didn't cover, the Canes did a good job of bouncing back from the opening day loss, to earn the SU win. Now, that first victory under their belts and fully recovered from the Bama beating, they'll be ready to put it all together. Even with the win at Northwestern, the Spartans are still just 3-8 ATS their last 11 as underdogs, 0-4 ATS as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range. While many seem to be jumping on the bandwagon, expect the Spartans to receive a reality check on Saturday afternoon. |
|||||||
09-16-21 | Giants v. Washington Football Team -170 | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 53 h 60 m | Show | |
I'm playing WASHINGTON on the ML. Both teams stumbled in Week 1. Washington was arguably better. Washington lost both meetings last season. Both were extremely close. One was decided by a single point, the other by a field goal. The previous meeting before those was decided in OT. All those close games are a big reason why I'm electing to play on the moneyline. While it may be another close one, this time, I expect the Football Team to be the team which comes away with the victory. Washington had an edge in total yards in both games last season, 337-240 and 402-350. The Fitzpatrick injury may turn out to be a blessing in disguise; Heinicke brings new energy and the ability to improvise. He sparked the offense when he came in last Sunday. The Washington pass rush will get going in this one and playing at home, on a short week, will prove beneficial. The Giants are just 5-21 SU the past 26 times that they were getting points. Washington wins. |
|||||||
09-16-21 | Ohio +21 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 14-49 | Loss | -117 | 36 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on OHIO. Neither team is pleased with how its played so far. The Cajuns lost to Texas. No shame in that, except that they were blown out 38-18. They followed it up by only beating Nicholls by a field goal. Not good, when considering they were laying nearly four TDs. Ohio has been even worse. The Bobcats followed up a loss against Syracuse by losing outright to Duquesne. I'm of the mind that both teams are a lot better than they've shown and that both will be playing better on Thursday. That said, this is a lot of points for the Cajuns to be laying, considering they only just beat Nicholls by a field goal. Ohio has a veteran coach and a veteran team. The Bobcats are coming in desperate. Look for them to provide a much tougher test than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
09-13-21 | Ravens v. Raiders UNDER 50.5 | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on Baltimore/Vegas UNDER the total for the first half. The Ravens may be depleted at the running back position but that's not going to stop them from establishing the run early on. They'll be doing so against what should be an improved Oakland defense. The Raiders have a new defensive coordinator (Gus Bradley) and the addition of defensive-end Yannick Ngakoue, a former Raven, should help the pass rush. Bradley noted: "....it always starts with stopping the run. I don’t know a team like this to say, 'Hey, we’re going to stop the run. We are going to go out there and compete our tail off and there is a mindset that we know this team can do a lot of damage running the ball.' So, that’s the part that right now I like the way it’s going, but we'll see on Monday night. I got a good feeling about the group. They are working hard together. They understand what is asked of them." The UNDER is 6-1 the Ravens' last seven road games. Their most recent road game was tied 3-3 at halftime. The two before that both had 20 points at halftime. I look for this one to also start off lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
09-12-21 | Dolphins v. Patriots -2.5 | 17-16 | Loss | -125 | 321 h 35 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NEW ENGLAND. After years of dominating the division, the Patriots finally stumbled last season. Its a new year though and I expect Bellichick to have his team absolutely ready for Week 1. The Pats are 6-1 SU in September the past couple of seasons. The Dolphins, on the other hand, are 1-6. We know the Pats are always stingy. This year's team has added some bigtime players to their defensive front. Miami was able to run successfully against New England but that figures to be much more difficult in this game. The Dolphins are also building a fairly strong defense and they're likely going to be tough to run against. Belichick knows their defensisve system well though and he'll know how to exploit the soft spots in it. On offense, I believe that the Pats have the edge. I expect Tua to have some issues with the pressure he will face and throwing against a tough NE secondary. Look for the Patriots to send an early message in this one. |
|||||||
09-12-21 | Seahawks v. Colts +2.5 | 28-16 | Loss | -110 | 313 h 0 m | Show | |
I'm playing on INDIANAPOLIS. Wentz going down prior to the season obviously wasn't ideal. As of this writing on Monday, Wentz was getting a full team practice in. As long as he holds up - and he reportedly looked sharp in practice (7-on-7 and individual drills) the previous week - he'll be behind center on Sunday. Whether it's Wentz or Eason, the Colts are a quality team which is hoping for big things this season. While Seattle has been tough for years and should be again this season, there are some areas of concern. Note that Seattle was 0-6 ATS its final six road games of 2020. Though preseason games, of course, need to taken with a grain of salt, I like the fact that the Colts were 3-0 compared to Seattle's 1-2. Reich's Colts already have a winning attitude and they're going to bring that mentality into Sunday. The home team is 4-0 SU/ATS the past four times that these teams met. I see the Colts, 7-2 SU their last nine home games, improving on those stats in this one. |
|||||||
09-12-21 | Jets v. Panthers -190 | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 4 h 15 m | Show | |
I'm playing CAROLINA on the moneyline. Jets fans see this game as a battle of their old QB vs. their new win. Darnold goes for the Panthers while Wilson starts for NY. It's an entire team effort though and Wilson's weapons are pretty modest. Darnold is arguably working with the better team and the Panthers have the venue in their favor. The Panthers have invested heavily on the defense the last couple of offseasons and they're going to be better on that side of the ball this year. I say they come away with the Opening Day victory. |
|||||||
09-12-21 | 49ers v. Lions UNDER 46 | Top | 41-33 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on the Lions/49ers UNDER the total. The Lions and the fans are going to be fired up. That said, this isn't an easy matchup. I expect their new offense to struggle against a tough SF defense. Losing left-tackle Decker to injury doesn't help matters. Remember, the 49ers ranked #4 in the NFL last season, in terms of yards allowed per game. With the offense likely to have trouble moving the ball, that means that the Lions are going to need to play their very best on defense, if they want to compete. The Lions will plan on a fairly heavy dose of the run to try and keep the SF offense off the field and to try and slow down the SF pass rush. While the 49ers offense has some weapons, the team averaged just 23.5 ppg last year. That was only 21st in the league. They'll also be looking to run the ball with regularity. The 49'ers have been seeing their Week 1 games finish below the total in recent years. Look for the clock to keep moving and the final combined score to also prove lower than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
09-11-21 | Stanford v. USC OVER 53 | Top | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on stanford/usc OVER the total. I played against the Cardinal last week. So, I was happy to see them score only seven points. That was a very early starting time though and I believe that worked against Stanford. Tonight, the Cardinal are back in the Pacific Time Zone and I'm expecting a much better offensive effort. Note that the OVER is 5-0 the past five times that the Cardinal had scored less than 20 points in their previous game. After scoring just 17 in its first game of 2019, the Cardinal played USC in their next game. That game had an O/U line of 44 and finished with 65. Next, after scoring six against Oregon, the Cardinal combined with OSU for 59. After a 16-point effort against UCLA, the Cardinal combined with Arizona for 72. A 13-point showing at Colorado was proceeded by a 71-point game at WSU. Finally, after a 20-pt offensive line vs Cal, the Cardinal combined with ND for 69. You get the idea. I'll also mention that the OVER is 8-1 the past nine times that USC had allowed less than 20, in its previous game. Expect those stats to improve this evening. |
|||||||
09-11-21 | Washington +7 v. Michigan | 10-31 | Loss | -117 | 25 h 11 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Huskies got caught looking ahead to this game and were upset as big favorites last week. As a result, not many are giving them a chance in this one. They're a much better team than they showed though and I'm confident we'll see that this evening. Last week's results have worked in our favor, in helping to create additional line value. Michigan was able to have its way on offense against Western Michigan but the Wolverines will have a much tougher time against a tough Washington defense. The Huskies are still 4-1 ATS their last five non-conf. games while the Wolverines are 2-3 ATS their last five. Going back further finds Michigan at 4-11 ATS its last 15 against the Pac-12. While I'm aware, they're banged up at the receiver position, I believe that the Huskies are going to surprise a lot of people and I'm grabbing the points. |
|||||||
09-11-21 | Georgia Southern +7 v. Florida Atlantic | 6-38 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 28 m | Show | |
I'm playing on GEORGIA SOUTHERN. While I respect the Owls, I also believe that Georgia Southern is better than many realize. The Eagles ran for 365 yards in winning their opening game. They controlled the clock for more than 35 minutes. On the other hand, the Owls allowed more than 400 yards on the ground, giving up nearly nine yards per carry. Obviously, FAU played a MUCH tougher opponent. So, those results need to be taken with a grain of salt. That said, the Eagles will still have success on the ground. While they didn't cover in their Week 1 win, the Eagles are 8-0 ATS their last eight, after an ATS loss. Having beaten FAU by a score of 20-3 last year, they're coming in confident. The Owls are 2-12 ATS their last 14, as home favorites in the 3.5 to 7 range. Grab the points. |
|||||||
09-11-21 | Ball State +22.5 v. Penn State | 13-44 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 28 m | Show | |
I'm playing on BALL STATE. The Nittany Lions are off a big upset win. They only scored 16 points though and they're laying more than that here. I believe that's asking a lot. Off its win at Wisconsin and with Auburn on deck, this is a very tough scheduling spot. Note that PSU is just 4-8 ATS its last 12 home games. The Cardinals are an experienced team. They put up 31 points in winning their opener by double-digits. They're 9-2 ATS their last 11 when getting points, 14-6 ATS over the years against Big Ten teams. Grab the points and look for this one to be much closer than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
09-11-21 | Illinois v. Virginia -9.5 | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 93 h 42 m | Show | |
I'm playing on VIRGINIA. The Illini scored an upset of Nebraska, only to then lose to UTSA. Keep in mind this is a team with a new coach, essentially in rebuild mode. Now, they're on the road to take on a stronger Virginia team. Off a 43-0 romp, the Cavs are full of confidence. They're 9-4-1 ATS their last 14, when laying points and they're 10-3-1 ATS (13-1 SU) their last 14 at home. That home field advantage should definitely be working in their favor for this 11am ET start. The Cavs defense was dominant last week. They didn't even allow a first down until their opponent was on its fifth possession. In the end, Virginia would surrender only 183 total yards. Eventually, the offense got going to the tune of 545 yards. I don't feel that the Illini are ready for what they'll find here; I'm expecting another double-digit win for the Cavs. |
|||||||
09-10-21 | UTEP v. Boise State UNDER 57 | 13-54 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Boise/Utep UNDER the total. While they came up short against UCF, the Broncos are tough on both sides of the ball. Stepping down in class, they're big favorites against UTEP for a reason. While the Broncos will score, I believe that they're going to emphasize shutting down the Miners and dominating defensively, more than running up the score offensively. UTEP has played well so far against inferior opponents. The Miners' running game has impressed and they've done a good job of getting pressure on opposing QBs. They'll be doing everything they can to run the ball in an effort to chew up the clock and keep the Boise offense on the sideline. With the Miners coming in undefeated, note that the UNDER is 7-1 the past eight times that Boise hosted a team with a winning road record. I say the UTEP offense struggles to score and this one proves lower-scoring overall than most will be expecting. |
|||||||
09-09-21 | Cowboys v. Bucs OVER 51 | Top | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 71 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on Dallas/TB OVER the total. I'm expecting to see plenty of points in this year's first game. Brady and the Bucs couldn't be stopped by the end of last season. They scored 30 or more points in each of their final seven games. In other words, the Cowboys know they're going to have to put up a big number of their own, if they want to compete. The Cowboys have their QB back and that makes them a far more dangerous offense. The Cowboys may not have to contend with Bucs starting saftey, Jordan Whitehead. He's been out with injury and still may not be ready in time for Thursday's game. Either way, I expect Dallas to have some success through the air. Prescott's receivers include Amari Cooper, who recently proclaimed himself to be the "best receiver in the NFL." In fact, it could be argued that the Cowboys' trio of Cooper, Gallup and Lamb is second (in the entire NFL) to only Tampa's trio of Evans, Godwin and Brown. The OVER is a perfect 4-0 the past four times that Dallas was an underdog. Those games had combined scores of 54, 74, 54 and 59. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
09-05-21 | Notre Dame v. Florida State UNDER 56 | 41-38 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ND/FSU UNDER the total. We've already seen some serious defensive battles. This one figures to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. The Irish allowed just 19.7 ppg last season. They'll be stingy again. On the other side of the ball, Notre Dame returns only three offensive starters. Six players they are replacing were draft picks. Needless to say, there will be some adjustments that need to be made early in the season. The Seminoles have plenty of returning starters and should be improved on both sides of the ball. It's still going to be tough to consistently move the ball against the ND defense though. Last year's meeting did finish above the total. However, that wasn't in the first week of the season and the Irish had an offense which had returned its QB and every starter on its offensive line. This year, we're working with an even higher O/U number than last year, too. Both teams played a low-scoring game to start their season last year. ND beat Duke 27-13 while FSU lost 16-13 to Georgia Tech. More of the same this evening. |
|||||||
09-04-21 | Georgia v. Clemson -140 | 10-3 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
I'm playing CLEMSON on the moneyline. This line has fallen considerably. Now, we're able to get the Tigers on the moneyline for a very reasonable price. For me, in a game which could well be close, not having to worry about laying any points is luxury worth laying that short price for. Obviously, Lawrence has moved on. You don't just replace a talent like that. That said, Uiagalelei is a legitimate Heisman candidate. He's a big QB who dominated when given a chance last season. He'll be throwing to a talented group of receivers including Justyn Ross. (Mel Kiper Jr ranks Ross, who missed last season, as a top 25 prospect for the 2022 NFL draft.) On the other side of the ball, an experienced Clemson defense is among the very best in the country. Of course, Georgia is also one of the very best teams in the country. Like the Tigers, the Bulldogs will be stingy defensively. However, Clemson returned considerably more starters on that side of the ball and that figures to play an important role in this one. While both teams were given an equal number of tickets to ensure the crowd for this "neutral site" is equal, the fact that the game is being played in Charlotte - a "Clemson town," should favor the Tigers. In what should be an exciting battle, look for Clemson to find a way. |
|||||||
09-04-21 | West Virginia v. Maryland UNDER 57.5 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on WVU/Maryland UNDER the total. This O/U number has climbed from its opener. I believe that's helping to provide us with plenty of line value. The Mountaineers should put up quite a few points this year, as they've got plenty of weapons on offense. Their defense is also excellent though and will be tough to score against. Last year, WVU held opposing teams to 291.4 ypg, #4 in the country. With nine returning defensive starters, the Terps will also be stingy this season. The UNDER is 5-1 the last six times that the Terps were underdogs, 6-1 their last seven games overall. The UNDER is also 4-1-1 in WVU's last six, as the road team. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. |
|||||||
09-04-21 | Stanford v. Kansas State -2.5 | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 110 h 28 m | Show | |
I'm playing on K-STATE. While this game will be played at a neutral site, the Wildcats will have the majority of the fans in their favor. The early starting time stongly favors K-State and Stanford coach David Shaw is the first to admit it. He had this to say, when learning about the schedule: "This is either complete disregard, or lack of understanding how difficult it is to be a West Coast team, that travels east and gets forced to play an early kickoff game ..." More recently he added: "I still think it's ridiculous." While the venue and kickoff time should favor K-State, the Wildcats also have the more experienced offense. They've got 10 returning starters on that side of the ball compared to six for Stanford. The Wildcats should be better on both sides of the ball this season. The Cardinal are 3-7 ATS their last 10 as underdogs. During that span, the Cats are 5-2 ATS as favorites. I expect them to improve on those stats Saturday morning. |
|||||||
09-03-21 | Michigan State v. Northwestern UNDER 46 | 38-21 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 21 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MSU/Northwestern UNDER the total. We saw a high-scoring game in the Big Ten last night but I'm expecting a considerably lower-scoring affair. Recent meetings between these teams have finished above the total. They've also had lower O/U lines than this one though. While last year's game finished with 49 points, the Wildcats lost a lot on offense from last year. They'll be working with a QB and lost their top four receivers from last year. With the offensive line a strength, that should translate to a lot of running the ball in this one. Also, the Wildcats will rely on their defense. They allowed a mere 15.9 ppg from last year and will be stingy once again. While the Spartans are experienced on offense, keep in mind that they only averaged 18 ppg last year. The Spartan defense is also fairly experienced with five of their top six tacklers returning. Expect it to translate to a low-scoring opener. |
|||||||
09-03-21 | North Carolina v. Virginia Tech +6 | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on V-TECH. The Tar Heels are tough on both sides of the ball and deserving of their national ranking. This is a very tough opening game though. Blacksburg has never been an easy place to play. Now, the fans are back and the Hokies should be much improved. While the offense will be good again, the Heels lost some serious firepower from last year. Note that they're just 5-5 on the road under Brown. Last year, they lost at (3-6) Florida State and (5-5) Virginia. After missing out on a bowl game for the first time in 27 years, the Hokies are coming into this season with a chip in their shoulder. They're 4-2 ATS their last six getting points overall and 6-3 ATS their last nine, as underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. I say homefield proves significant and that the Heels give the Hokies all that they can handle. |
|||||||
09-02-21 | East Carolina v. Appalachian State UNDER 58 | Top | 19-33 | Win | 100 | 79 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on East Carolina / Appalachian State UNDER the total. While both offenses have some threats, these are two experienced defenses. ECU QB Ahlers is an exciting player but I expect him to have some trouble against a stingy Mountaineer defense. Inside linebackers Jackson and Cobb each had more than 90 tackles last season. Each added some sacks while Jackson also had a couple of picks. On offense, the Mountaineers will feature a heavy dose of the run, which will help to chew the clock up. Remember, Peoples just ran for over 300 yards in App. State's bowl win back in December. While the Pirates defense has admittedly struggled in recent seasons, Coach Houston has a defensive background and this is now his third year. That said, ECU should be better defensively this season. Note that the UNDER is 4-1 the past five Pirate September games. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
09-01-21 | UAB v. Jacksonville State +17 | 31-0 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE STATE. The Blazers won the C-USA championship again last season. The Gamecocks have been dominating the Ohio Valley. Naturally, UAB is favored. There's a lot to like about the Gamecocks in this one though and this is a very generous spread. I really like the fact that they've had a spring season under their belts. I like that Jacksonville State has a senior QB with 61 career TD passes to his credit. UAB replaces its career leading rusher and the Gamecocks have held nine straight (reg. season) opponents to less than 100 yards on the ground. These campuses are close to each other, so both will want to play hard. That said, UAB could easily already be thinking about next week's showdown with Georgia. Finally, I like the fact that the coaches are friends. In fact, they were in the same graduating class and they've previously worked together. In a game that may well prove a lot closer than many will be expecting, I'm grabbing the points. |
|||||||
08-28-21 | Southern Utah v. San Jose State OVER 56 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 99 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on Southern Utah and SJ State OVER the total. The Spartans were a profitable 'under' team last winter. Seven of their last eight games, including each of their last five, finished below the total. This is a new season though and a relatively low number. Importantly, a closer look shows that things weren't as bleak offensively as all those 'unders' makes it sound. Yes, the Spartans struggled to score in their New Year's Eve Bowl game against Ball State. They scored 30 or more in each of their final four regular season games though and 28 or more in each of their last six. This year, the offense brings back nine starters and will be playing behind a veteran offensive line. A game against Southern Utah provides an opportunity to immediately get healthy offensively and get rid of the bad taste from the Ball State loss. While SJ State will put up a big number, the Thunderbirds aren't without offensive talent. They'll contribute. QB Miller started all six games last season and threw for 1700+ yards and 15 TDs. They've got an NFL prospect (Braxton Jones) on the offensive line. Running back Duckett is solid and Oregon transfer JR Watts brings speed at the WR position and an opportunity to beat the Spartans deep. Look for the final score to prove higher than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
08-28-21 | Nebraska -7 v. Illinois | Top | 22-30 | Loss | -105 | 745 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEBRASKA. It sounds funny but a case can be made that this is one of Nebraska's most important games of the season. The Huskers absolutely need a positive start. Beating a team which embarrassed them last year is a great place to begin. Beating Brett Bielema, new coach of Illinois, will make it even sweeter. Nebraska coach Frost commented: "The one thing we need is momentum right now. There's so many good things that are happening in our program. These kids deserve a little wind under their wings, and that first game's going to be an opportunity for us against a Big Ten opponent. So that really is a big game." Frost has plenty of talent and now he's had plenty of time with his team. The cupboard isn't bare for Bielema either, thanks to his "super seniors." That said, its going to take some time. He can't be expected to work miracles overnight. The Huskers are 13-8 ATS their last 21, as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. I see them settling the score from last year with a double-digit win to start the season. |
|||||||
02-07-21 | Chiefs -3 v. Bucs | Top | 9-31 | Loss | -113 | 298 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on KC. Talk about a dream matchup. Brady, considered by many to be the greatest of all-time, against Mahomes, arguably the greatest right now. With all due respect to Brady, I do believe that Mahomes is "currently" the better QB. He plays at a different level and does things that other QBs simply can't do. He doesn't get phased either. Unflappable. You saw them turn the ball over and fall behind early against Buffalo in the Conf. Championship game. Mahomes didn't blink. He calmly led them back. Remember last year's playoffs? The Chiefs were behind by double-digits EVERY game. Yet, they went on to win the Super Bowl. That includes the game against the Texans where they down 24-0. They won 51-31. While I don't expect the Chiefs to fall behind by double-digits in this one, its a comfortable feeling knowing that Mahomes is never out of it. Though Arians got the better of a young Matt LaFleur in the NFC title game, I believe that Andy Reid gives the Chiefs a coaching advantage. I firmly believe that he's a better coach than he was earlier in his career. Here's an excerpt of what I said about Reid prior to last year's SB: "... Sometimes you need to lose, before you can win. Andy Reid has felt the pain of losing. Of coming so close to winning it all, only to come up short. Recall the 24-21 Super Bowl loss by Reid and the McNabb led Eagles team in 2005. McNabb was among the first to congratulate Reid, stating 'thats my coach, best I ever had.' Indeed, most of his players, past and present, love Reid. I believe he's a better coach than he used to be. That he's learned from his failures. The Chiefs, as a team, have had a small taste of the pain that Reid knows all too well. Recall how close they were to reaching the Super Bowl, only to come up short, last season. They've felt what its like to lose and they know how hard it is to get here. Now, they've taken the next step and I believe they're ready to seal the deal. With all due respect to McNabb, who was a great QB in his own right, Mahomes is playing a different level. He can calmly pick defenses apart, beating them short or long. If thats not there, he beats you with his legs. In four playoff games, he's got 11 TDs and 0 interceptions. We've seen the Chiefs show the ability to come back. They fell behind against the Titans last game, no problem. Down 24-0 against the Texans. Whatever. They rallied to crush them. Sure, the 49ers ran all over the Packers. Henry ran all over everyone though and the Chiefs stopped him. While I obvsiously, respect the 49er defense, I feel that its Andy Reid's time ..." Mahomes outplayed Brady here back in November. I expect him to do so again, the Chiefs hoisting the trophy for the second straight year, while covering the small number along the way. |
|||||||
01-24-21 | Bills v. Chiefs -157 | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 81 h 13 m | Show | |
I'm playing KC on the moneyline. While I absolutely respect the Bills, I don't believe that they're quite ready to beat the champs. While he hasn't been officially cleared, I'm making this selection under the assumption that Mahomes will play. Assuming that's the case, I expect a typical Mahomes like performance from the reigning Super Bowl MVP. Allen is right there amongst the best in the league, but he's still not Mahomes. One could argue that the Bills are somewhat fortunate to be here. The Colts outgained them by quite a lot in the Wildcard Rd, putting up nearly 500 (472) total yards, more than 300 through the air. Yes, the Bills' defense bounced back with a much better effort against Baltimore. I still believe that the champs have the edge on that side of the ball though. Remember, KC held Buffalo to a season-low 206 yards in the earlier meeting. While both teams should score plenty of points, ultimately, I expect KC to get at least one more stop, punching its ticket back to the Super Bowl. |
|||||||
01-24-21 | Bills v. Chiefs OVER 54 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 146 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on Buffalo/KC OVER the total. As of this writing, it remains unclear if Mahomes will be able to play or not. Obviously, he'll want to play. Its not up to him though. Obviously, if he's fit to go, the Chiefs want him in there, as do I. Here's what John Murray, executive director of the SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas, told ESPN: "We certainly expect Mahomes to play. We moved the line up to [Chiefs] -3 after reading some quotes from Andy Reid that sounded positive." I expect him to be in there, too. With or without Mahomes, however, the Chiefs are going to need to score a lot of points. On a windy day in Buffalo, the Bills won with defense last week. That game notwithstanding, they're here because of their offense though. The Bills average 30.3 ppg. Both teams rank in the top 5 in terms of points scored and total yards. The Chiefs are number in the latter category. In the event that Mahomes doesn't play, Reid is still going to be aggressive. Henne now has some playoff snaps under his belt and he certainly has some bigtime weapons at his disposal. Neither of these offenses will be stopped on Sunday. Expect a shootout. |
|||||||
01-24-21 | Bucs v. Packers -190 | 31-26 | Loss | -190 | 152 h 34 m | Show | |
I'm playing GB on the moneyline. Many shy away from the moneyline in football and basketball but it can often be the way to go. In this case, I believe that the Packers are peaking at the right time and they've got a lot of things going in their favor. I like the fact that Brown was offiically ruled out for Tampa. Talk about an epic showdown. Brees vs. Brady was good but a Rodgers/Brady showdown is even better. Playing at an extremely high level and playing at home, when its all said and done, I expect the younger Rodgers to emerge victorious. While Brees was still dangerous, he was also clearly past his prime. The same cannot be said of Rodgers. The season that Rodgers just delivered was simply remarkable. He enters the playoffs at the very top of his game. If you listened to Rodgers after last week's win, you would have heard him comment on how much having some fans at Lambeau gave the Packers a lift. I expect that to be the case once again. While the Bucs benefitted greatly from winning the turnover battle against the Saints, the Packers manhandled the Rams. That was a defense that made Wilson and the Seahawks look terrible. Yet, Rodgers was absolutely comfortable. Of course, the Packers three-headed rushing attack (Jones, Williams, Dillon) played a pivotal role. The offensive line was fantastic. In addition to the huge advantage of playing at home, I like the fact that he Packers have had an extra day of preparation than the Bucs. (They played last Saturday, while TB played Sunday.) Rodgers has recently started to receive the accolades which he deserves. However, for much of his career, he's been playing second fiddle. First, to Favre in Green Bay. Then, to guys like Manning and Brady. Those days are over. Expect Rodgers to get the better of Brady, the Packers punching their ticket to the Super Bowl. |
|||||||
01-17-21 | Bucs v. Saints UNDER 52 | Top | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on TB/NO UNDER the total. Brady vs. Brees = Shootout. Right? Not tonight, in my opinion. Sure, everyone is excited about the showdown between the two future hall-of-famers. With all that excitement, we're working with a higher O/U line than we were for the two regular season meetings. With all due respect to Brees and Brady, I feel that the high number is providing excellent value. These defenses are both really good. Remember, these teams combined for just 41 points (38-3!) last meeting. Remember, the O/U line was 48 for the game here, at New Orleans. Remember, that the Saints defensive line has been all over Brady in the two reg. season meetings. Remember, five of Brady's 12 INT's as a Buccaneer, have come against this NO team. Tampa coach Arians acknowledged: "We've got to block them better." I expect that to lead to a slightly more conservative game plan than normal, as the Bucs try to protect their star QB. While Brees runs the show, the Saints also really rely on Kamara and the running game. Yet, the Bucs were the best team in the league at stopping the run. The Saints were fourth best in that area. The Bucs were also fourth best in terms of sacking the opposing QB. NO also ranked in the top 10 (8th) in that category. Both defenses were right near the top of the league, in terms of interceptions, too. In fact, the Saints tied for first with 18 while the Bucs had 15. Again, these defenses are better than some seem to realize. I look for the final score to prove lower than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
01-17-21 | Browns v. Chiefs -9 | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on KC. The Browns were able to beat up on the Steelers. However, the Chiefs are an entirely different animal. The Chiefs score more points than the Browns and they allow less. They're experienced in the playoffs, well coached and they're well-rested. Mahomes plays the game at another level. This will already be the Browns' fourth road game since 12/20. The Chiefs, on the other hand, have been home since Christmas. While the Browns are 1-5 ATS their last six against teams from the AFC West, the Chiefs are 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU) their last six against teams from the AFC North. The Chiefs are a perfect 5-0 SU the past five times that they were off a bye and they're 4-1 ATS their last five playoff games. Mahomes rarely makes mistakes and its going to take a near perfect game to beat him. I don't believe that the Browns are up for the task. KC wins by double-digits. |
|||||||
01-16-21 | Ravens v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 128 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on BUFFALO. Both these teams are hungry to take the "next step." I believe that it'll be the Bills who do so. Lamar Jackson certainly does some special things on the field. However, he's also liable to make mistakes. More so, at least, than Josh Allen. Lamar completed 64% of his passes this season, while Allen completed 69% of his. While he didn't fare well against Baltimore last year, Allen has come a long way since then. Indeed, Allen threw for a whopping 4500+ yards with 37 TDs against 10 interceptions. Jackson had an almost identical number (nine) of INT's with roughly 1800 fewer yards and 11 less TD passes. All Allen did last week was to become the youngest QB in NFL history to complete 70% of his passes, in a playoff game, while throwing for more than 300 yards. Not only did he throw for 326 yards, he ran for another 54 and a TD. Yeah, he can do that, too. While it may not be talked about much, I believe that the schedule gives the Bills and advantage. This will be the Ravens' third straight road game and they're playing on a short week. The Bills play with one extra day in between games (they played Saturday last week, while Baltimore played Sunday) and they're playing their third straight at home. The Bills are 7-1 ATS their last eight, when the line ranged from -3 to +3. With Allen getting the better of Jackson, expect them to improve on those stats Saturday evening. |
|||||||
01-16-21 | Rams v. Packers UNDER 45.5 | 18-32 | Loss | -101 | 73 h 17 m | Show | |
I'm playing on LA/GB UNDER the total. Without a doubt, Rodgers has had a great year. However, he hasn't faced a defense this good. He can ask Russell Wilson if he wants confirmation. The Rams game against Seattle finished above the total. However, the Rams still arguably won that one with their defense and thats certainly why they were in the playoffs to begin with. Prior to the Seattle game, LA had seen its previous four games all stay below the number, allowing an average of less than 11 ppg. Donald has been held out of practice but has said that he'll be good to go. While Rodgers rightfully gets all the headlines, the Packers defense quietly closed the season in top form. The Pack held each of their final three opponents below the 17-point mark. Four of their past five opponents scored fewer than 17 points, the other managed 24. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
01-11-21 | Ohio State v. Alabama -7 | 24-52 | Win | 100 | 229 h 26 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ALABAMA. I won with the Buckeyes against Clemson. However, this Alabama team is in an entirely different class. The Buckeyes were on a mission to avenge last year's loss against Clemson. Obviously, they want to take the next step and beat Alabama, too. However, even if they don't, they've already proven that they belong and have "accomplished their mission." Coach Day commented: " ... This was big for us. This was a statement for us as a program to win a CFP game, especially after what happened last year. And to play the way we did, it means a lot for our program." For Alabama, on the other hand, nothing has been accomplished. This is a team which is on a mission to win the National title. As impressive as they were in beating up on Clemson, the Buckeyes got beaten up themselves in the process. QB Fields, the hero of the Sugar Bowl win, had this to say after the game: " ... I took like a shot or two in the medical tent and just ran back out there. But I mean it's pretty much my whole right torso that's messed up, a little bit of my hip ... " As much as I respect the Buckeyes, the Tide are simply better on both sides of the ball. Alabama will put up a big number, as it has done every game this season; ultimately, Ohio State won't be able to keep up. |
|||||||
01-11-21 | Ohio State v. Alabama OVER 75.5 | Top | 24-52 | Win | 100 | 230 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on Ohio State / Alabama OVER the total. I successfully played on the 'under' in Alabama's win over Notre Dame. That one stayed comfortably below the total which has helped to keep this O/U line a little lower than it easily could have been. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. When I played on the 'under' in Alabama's last game, it was largely because I respected the Notre Dame defense. While I wasn't sure that they would score that many points, I felt strongly that the Irish would do everything that they could to slow the game down and to try and keep the Alabama offense off the field. The Buckeyes, however, are an entirely different team. After putting up 49 points against Clemson, they believe that they've got the type of offense that can trade points with the SEC champs. Rather than try and slow the game down, they're going to try and outscore the Tide. If you watched their game against Clemson, you saw that they were very aggressive; there was no taking their foot off the gas. They kept throwing and attacking and looking to put up more points. Of course, they're going to need to score A LOT if they want to compete with an Alabama offense which arguably ranks among the best of all-time. Prior to the Irish game, Alabama had scored more than 40 in 10 straight games, including more than 50 in each of its previous three. Expect an extremely high-scoring affair. |
|||||||
01-10-21 | Bears +10.5 v. Saints | Top | 9-21 | Loss | -117 | 125 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on CHICAGO. Its true that the Bears "backed into" the playoffs. I'm not concerned about that though. They're here. While the betting public isn't giving them a chance, the Bears believe that they belong. Remember, the Saints beat them by only three (in OT) in the regular season. The Bears will play without any pressure. This is a Chicago team and offensive line which protects its QB and which opens up holes for its running backs. Thats the type of formula that can often be successful in the playoffs. While they struggled to run the ball early, the Bears have rushed for more than 100 yards in six straight games. They've also allowed only one sack in their past three games. With an O/U line in the high 40s, note that Chicago is 4-1 ATS its past five, when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 45 to 49.5 range. Look for them to give the Saints all they can handle. |
|||||||
01-10-21 | Ravens v. Titans OVER 54 | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -114 | 139 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on Baltimore/Tennessee OVER the total. For good reason, this is the highest O/U line of the weekend's playoff games. I believe that it could easily be even higher. Both these offenses are rolling. The Titans have scored 30 or more points in six of their past seven games. Last time out, they scored 41. Meanwhile, the Ravens scored 38 last time out. In their previous four games, they scored 27, 40, 47, and 34 points. The Ravens will be facing a porous Titan defense which has surrendered a whopping 78 points in its last two games. The Ravens' defenders are going to have their hands full, too. The Titans are the first team in NFL history which has a 2000 yard rusher AND a QB who threw for more than 3500 yards. The Titans average nearly 400 yards of offense per game, second only to the defending champion Chiefs. Despite this game being played at Tennesse, the Titans find themselves "getting points." Thats noteworthy, as the OVER is a perfect 6-0 the past six times that the Titans were listed as underdogs. This will make it seven straight. |
|||||||
01-09-21 | Bucs v. Washington Football Team UNDER 46.5 | Top | 31-23 | Loss | -110 | 128 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on TB/Washington UNDER the total. I won with Washington 'under' on Sunday night, while losing with the Eagles. (Thanks Doug Pederson #$%@) The 20-14 final marked the fifth straight Washington game which had stayed below the total. While that normally would cause the O/U lines to start going down, this O/U line is higher than any of those ones. That's because, in part, because the betting public is enamored with Tom Brady. The thought process being that any game that Brady is in will most certainly be high-scoring. Tampa's recent high-scoring games have only helped to strengthen that perception. Certainly, the future Hall-Of-Famer has had his share of good moments this season. However, he's also had some bad ones. Keep in mind that the recent high-scornig TB games have come against the likes of Detroit (worst defense in league, in terms of ppg) Atlanta (twice) and Minnesota (28th defense in terms of ppg). This Washington defense is far stingier than any that Brady and co. have faced recently. Note that Mike Evans, Brady's favorite receiver on this team, hyperextended his knee last game. Though they hope to have him back, if he does play, he may not be quite 100%. On the other side, the Bucs defense is quietly also very good. While the number took a bit of a hit lately, Tampa still only allows 22.2 ppg. With Washington running the ball regularly to help chew up the clock, look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
01-09-21 | Rams v. Seahawks -195 | 30-20 | Loss | -195 | 97 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm playing SEATTLE on the moneyline. Even if the Rams had a healthy Goff, winning here was going to be very difficult. They don't though. He had thumb surgery and may not play. If he does, it'll be 12 days after surgery and in the cold. He'd be highly unlikely to be 100%. Wolford threw for 231 yards with 0 TDs and an INT in his first start. Those are hardly the type of numbers needed to compete against Russell Wilson. Note that the home team won (and covered) both games during the regular season. While I do like the Seahawks to cover, out of respect for the Rams' defense, I'm going with the moneyline. Its worth noting that Seattle is 30-34-1 ATS (47%) the past 65 times that it was a home favorite in the 3.5 to 7 range. Yet, the Hawks were 46-19 SU (71%) in those same games. Expect them to improve on those stats Saturday afternoon. |
|||||||
01-09-21 | Colts +7 v. Bills | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 114 h 29 m | Show | |
I'm playing on INDIANAPOLIS. No doubt about it, the Bills had a great season. However, the Colts were "quietly" very good, too. While the Bills outscored opposing teams by an impressive 7.9 ppg, the Colts weren't far behind. They outscored teams by an average of 5.6 points. Everyone expects the Bills to win and with those expectations, comes pressure. Keep in mind that this is unfamiliar territory for most of these Bills. On the other hand, Indianapolis shouldn't be feeling the same type of pressure. The Colts coach, former Buffalo QB Frank Reich, had this to say of his team: "We should be loose, we should be aggressive, we should be able to play our best football game of the year because no one's going to give us a chance. It's the us- against-the-world mentality. If you were around the team like I am day in and day out, you'd understand where I get the confidence to think we can beat anyone in this tournament.'' Reich went on to say: "It starts with what we believe, we have the team to win it all. We've got the right players, the right coaches and the belief and confidence in each other to win it all. I can tell you on a personal note, in my 26 years in the NFL, I've been on teams that have won 11 games eight times. Six of those eight went to the Super Bowl.'' Led by their veteran QB, look for Reich's Colts, 4-2 ATS their last six as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range, to give the Bills all they can handle, with a great shot at the outright upset. |
|||||||
01-03-21 | Washington Football Team v. Eagles +3.5 | 20-14 | Loss | -109 | 35 h 27 m | Show | |
I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. These teams in the NFC East hate each other. Don't think for a second that the Eagles don't want this game. Sure, a win would mean that another hated rival will get in. Still, the Eagles are a proud franchise which isn't about to hand over a playoff spot. As Eagles coach Doug Pederson had to say: 'We've got to have a no hat rule this week. We can't let opponents put division win hats on at the Linc.'' While they came up short on making the playoffs, the first time since Pederson's first season in 2016, I do believe that the Eagles are a better team now than they were earlier in the season. Having beaten the Saints last time on this field, certainly, they're capable of beating a 6-9 Washington team, which is off b2b losses. Note that Washington, 5-11-1 ATS (5-12 SU) its last 17 off b2b losses, is just 2-5 ATS its last seven as a favorite. In what'll likely be a close one, grab the points. |
|||||||
01-03-21 | Washington Football Team v. Eagles UNDER 44 | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Washington/Philly UNDER the total. Washington is on an 'under' streak while Philadelphia is on an 'over' streak. On a chilly and likely wet night, with the division on the line, I expect it to be the first of those streaks which continues. Washington is in this position because of its defense. Its allowed 20 or fewer points in six straight games. The Eagles' offense has certainly been better since Wentz got benched. That said, they've still scored less than 27 points in nine straight games. Last time out, they managed a mere 17 against a normally porous Dallas defense. Thats now five of their last seven games where the Eagles have scored 17 or less. Washington, meanwhile, managed just 13 points last week after scoring only 15 in its previous game. That's four straight games where the Football Team has scored less than 24. Expect a relatively low-scoring affair. |
|||||||
01-03-21 | Cowboys v. Giants +2.5 | Top | 19-23 | Win | 100 | 91 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on the NEW YORK GIANTS. Only in 2020 would these teams still be alive for the playoffs. Yet, thats the situation. If Washington were to somehow lose on Sunday night, which is entirely possible, the winner of this game goes to the playoffs. I successfully played against the Giants in their very first game of the season, a loss against the Steelers. At the time, I stated the following: "....With quite a few years in the Patriots' organization and coming highly recommended from Belichick, its entirely possible that Joe Judge will go on to have a successful head coaching career. However, before that ever happens, I expect him to receive an unfriendly welcome to the head coaching fraternity by Mike Tomlin and the Steelers. Over the past few months, Judge has had to do a lot of things for the first time. He and the Giants very likely would have benefitted from the chance to get to know each other better over a few preseason games. Tomlin, on the other hand, knows his team well ..." Unsurprisingly, Judge and co. did go through some growing pains this season. However, fate has them still playing a meaningful game and now he's had plenty of time to get to know his team. While they had to face some tough teams down the stretch, the Giants are less than a month removed from winning outright at Seattle. Thats arguably a more impressive feat than anything Dallas has accomplished. Speaking of Dallas, the Cowboys are 0-4 ATS the past four times that they were road favorites of three or less. All four losses came outright. Though I like the Giants to also win this one outright, in what could be a close one, I'm grabbing the points. |
|||||||
01-02-21 | North Carolina v. Texas A&M -7 | Top | 27-41 | Win | 100 | 28 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on TEXAS A&M. The SEC didn't fare too well at the betting window, in yesterday's egames. Auburn lost to Northwestern while Georgia nearly lost outright against Cincy. Then, Alabama failed to cover against the Irish. That may have some scratching their heads about why the SEC team is getting so much respect here. However, I'm projecting a double-digit win and believe that the Aggies could easily be favored by more. While the Tar Heels were certainly impressive in beating up on Miami, they also lost against Virginia, Florida State and Notre Dame. Texas A&M has just one loss all season and that came at Alabama. Since then, the Aggies have won seven straight, starting with Florida, all against SEC opposition. Their last six wins have ALL come by double-digits. Despite facing an SEC schedule, the Aggies allowed just 21.1 ppg compared to the Tar Heels' 28.4 ppg against an ACC schedule, one which didn't include a game against Clemson. Of course, it also needs to be mentioned that UNC has a number of players who chose to opt out of this game. Mack Brown said this of the missing players: "That's 4,000 yards worth of offense and our leading tackler on defense and two captains. This is new for me because I've never had a guy not play in a ball game ... " Texas A&M rolls. |
|||||||
01-02-21 | Ole Miss +10 v. Indiana | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show | |
I'm playing on OLE MISS. The SEC didn't fare too well at the betting window, in yesterday's egames. Auburn lost to Northwestern while Georgia nearly lost outright against Cincy. Then, Alabama failed to cover against the Irish. While I backed the Big Ten team (Northwestern) in yesterday's Big Ten vs. SEC showdown, I feel that its the SEC team which is providing us with excellent value in this one. The Hoosiers are 0-5 their last five bowl games. During that span, the Rebels are 11-2 in bowl games. The Rebels do have some issues as they're dealing with some injuries and covid-opt outs. Thats been reflected in the line though as Indiana is being asked to win by double-digits. Thats asking too much, in my opinion. Note that three of their seven games were decided by single-digits. The Hoosiers may be saying all the right things but they're still disappointed about not getting to play yesterday. The Rebels can score with the best of them. They scored 54, 59, 31 and 48 points, in their final four games. While Indiana averages 30 ppg, Ole Miss averages more than 40. Look for the Rebels to come "ready to play" as they give the Hoosiers a much tougher challenge than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
01-02-21 | Kentucky -127 v. NC State | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 19 h 8 m | Show | |
I'm playing KENTUCKY on the moneyline. The SEC didn't fare too well in yesterday's early games. Auburn lost to Northwestern while Georgia failed to cover against Cincy. That may have some scratching their heads about why the SEC team is getting so much respect here. The Wolfpack can't believe that they're underdogs in this game either. After all, they've won four straight and are 8-3. Kentucky, meanwhile, is just 4-6. Vegas isn't stupid though; the Wildcats are favored for a reason. Keep in mind that Kentucky had to face the likes of Alabama, Georgia, Auburn and Florida. Three of those games came on the road, too. NC State wouldn't have beaten those teams either. When stepping down in class to face Tennessee, Miss State and Vanderbilt, the Wildcats went 4-0. They beat the first two that I mentioned by a combined score of 51-9. NC State's best wins were against Virginia and Liberty. The Wolfpack's toughest games were against VTech, Miami and UNC and they lost all three of those. NC State is 3-10 SU its last 13 as an underdog. During that span, Kentucky is 15-4 SU as a favorite. Kentucky wins. |
|||||||
01-01-21 | Ohio State +8.5 v. Clemson | Top | 49-28 | Win | 100 | 271 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on OHIO STATE. One can argue that the Buckeyes didn't deserve to be here, due to eligibilty reasons. However, there's no arguing the fact that they have the talent to be here. I like the way that the Buckeyes enter this one. The world against them - at least they can make a case for feeling that way - and off a non-cover, comeback win in the Big Ten championship game. All that sets them up well for this one; I like how they rallied to come back from a 10-6 halftime deficit to win 22-10. The comeback provides momentum and confidence, as does the ability to win a close game. The non-cover creates some additional line value, as this line could easily be less than a touchdown. QB Fields has had time for his thumb to recover and now he'll have one of his favorite receivers back, as Chris Olave missed the Northwestern game. Last year's game could have easily gone either way. The Buckeyes were up 16-0 but lost 29-23. Lawrence threw the game-winning TD with less than two minutes to go. Again, the Buckeyes were right there last year. They've been waiting and hoping for this rematch and I expect them to again give the Tigers all they can handle. Fields had this to say: "It's pretty self-explanatory that game hurt us a lot last year. So that has kind of been our whole motivation this offseason. Just getting the chance to play those guys again is a great opportunity ... " Ohio State's offensive lineman Wyatt Davis added: "It's everybody. I mean, we had a whole winter offseason program dedicated to this game. Clearly what we've seen and I'm sure all of you have seen this, we're going into this game not respected at all so that has a lot of motivations as well." Don't be surprised when this one comes down to the wire once again, the revenge-minded Buckeyes with an excellent shot at the outright win. |
|||||||
01-01-21 | Notre Dame v. Alabama UNDER 66.5 | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ND/Alabama UNDER the total. Obviously, the Alabama offense is really, really good. However, this is also a very high O/U line and this Notre Dame defense is a lot better than many realize. No, the Irish won't be able to stop the Tide. But they should be able to slow them down better than most other teams. Remember, that ND ranked in the top 25 in both points allowed and yards allowed, despite having to face Clemson twice. Speaking of Clemson, Notre Dame's most recent game with the Tigers had an O/U line of 57 and finished with just 44 points. While the offense gets all the headlines, as per usual, the Alabama defense is also loaded with stars. While their last game was high-scoring, the Tide have been alternating between 'unders' and 'overs' their past six games, dating back to Halloween. Expect that 'pattern' to continue as this one proves lower-scoring than most will be expecting, the final combined score staying beneath the generously high number. |
|||||||
01-01-21 | Auburn v. Northwestern -170 | 19-35 | Win | 100 | 21 h 50 m | Show | |
I'm playing NORTHWESTERN on the money-line. While I successfully backed an SEC team (Miss. State) in yesterday's early game, I'm going against the SEC team in this one. For starters, I believe that Northwestern is better than Tulsa. I've been impressed with the Wildcats all season. Also, importantly, Auburn is currently a mess. Within the last month, the Tigers fired their coach and also saw several players opt out of this game. The Tigers also found out Thursday, just before leaving Orlando, that at least one player had tested positive. That's a lot to deal with, compared to the Wildcats, who have been relatively "stable" by comparison. The Tigers are just 3-7 SU the past 10 times that they were listed as underdogs. During that time, the Wildcats were 10-3 SU as favorites. Expect them to improve on those stats this afternoon. |
|||||||
12-31-20 | Ball State +10 v. San Jose State | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 20 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on BALL STATE. While I respect San Jose State, I don't believe it should be laying double-digits against an undervalued Ball State team. I don't think the Cardinals are being given nearly enough respect or enough credit for beating Buffalo. Keep in mind that the Bulls had been crushing every team they faced all season. That was a very good Buffalo team and Ball State won by double-digits. That victory was arguably more impressive than anything that the Spartans did. That's six straight wins. The Cards only loss was in their first game and that was by just seven points. San Jose State does deserve credit but also benefitted from a down year in the Mountain West. Keep in mind that the Spartans are still just 2-10 SU their last 12 against teams with a winning record. In what should be a close one, I'm grabbing the points. |
|||||||
12-31-20 | Mississippi State +1.5 v. Tulsa | 28-26 | Win | 100 | 18 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MISS. STATE. If one just looks at the records, Tulsa should be a bigger favorite. However, as Tulsa's TieNeal Martin had to say: "Records can be a little bit deceiving. When I look at Miss. State, I see a crazy talented team that has all the pieces ..." It should be noted that Tulsa will be without linebacker Zaven Collins (Nagurski Trophy winner) as he opted out. The Bulldogs have taken on the likes of Alabama and Georgia, not to mention teams like Texas A&M, Kentucky, LSU and Arkansas, Auburn and Ole Miss. They closed out the season with a momentum-building 51-32 beating of Missouri. Tulsa, on the other hand, comes off a loss to Cincinnati. Note that the Hurricane are 4-8 ATS the past 12 times that they were off a conference loss. While I'll grab the points, I expect the Bulldogs to win this one outirght, improving to 5-1 ATS their last six, when the line ranged from -3 to +3. |
|||||||
12-30-20 | Florida v. Oklahoma UNDER 68.5 | Top | 20-55 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on Florida/Oklahoma UNDER the total. As you may have heard, the Gators' offense has taken a pretty major hit. They'll still have their star QB but he'll be without his top FOUR receiving options. Those four guys (receives Grimes, Toney, Copeland and tight-end Pitts) combined for 2778 yards and 34 touchdowns this season. Obviously, that's significant. Meanwhile, the Sooners defense is better than the recent editions that have been beaten up by SEC teams. OU has allowed a mere 57 points its last four games. That's actually their best defensive stretch, in terms of points allowed, in the past six years. While the Sooners led the Big 12 with 36 sacks, the Gators led the SEC with 33. Oklahoma defensive end Ronnie Perkins said this of the Sooner defense: 'After suffering those two losses early in the season, the defense definitely turned it up. I definitely feel that switch. We've got great players all over the field. A lot of guys who have kind of been in it, took a lot of reps in this defense over the last two years. So we're a confident group. We play hard, play fast.'' Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
12-29-20 | Colorado v. Texas -7 | 23-55 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TEXAS. I'm projecting a double-digit win for the Longhorns in this one. Note that every Texas victory came by at least seven points this season, with the exception of a 4-point win over WVU. The Longhorns bring momentum into the game, having won four of their past five. They crushed K-State 69-31 last time out. The Buffaloes can't say the same. They lost 38-21 to Utah last time out, snapping a winning streak. The loss was costly. Not only did it cost the Buffs any chance at the Pac-12 South title, they also suffered numerous injuries including one to linebacker Nate Landman. His loss, and others, will hurt them here. The Longhorns are a perfect 6-0 SU the past six times that they were favored in the -3.5 to -10 range. I expect Ehlinger and co. to improve on those stats, picking up the cover along the way. |
|||||||
12-29-20 | Oklahoma State -1 v. Miami-FL | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
I'm playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. Both these teams have mostly beaten the teams that they were supposed to beat. Both have similar records and both have similar numbers in that they've outscored opposing teams by roughly the same amount. (Miami outscored teams by 8 ppg while OSU outscored opposing teams by 7.1 ppg.) I like the way that the Cowboys come into the game a lot more though. After dropping two of three, they responded by thrashing Baylor (42-3) last time out. Conversely, Miami got crushed in its last game. The Canes were hammered 62-26 by UNC. Yes, they're saying all the right things about being motivated to bounce back - I'm sure that they want to - but that game exposed some vulnerabilities. It also cost them a spot in a major bowl which is a difficult pill to swallow and which will make "getting up" for this one that much more difficult. While they may be closer to home, the Canes are still 0-5 SU their last five on a 'neutral' field. Even without Hubbard, OSU can still pound the ball and control the clock. Expect the Cowboys to win their fourth bowl game in the past five years. |
|||||||
12-28-20 | Bills v. Patriots +7.5 | Top | 38-9 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on NEW ENGLAND. Nearly every site, analyst or person that I've looked at is predicting a Buffalo blowout. Yes, the Bills have been the better team. Yes, the Patriots are dealing with injuries. Yes, the Pats will also be home for the playoffs. Their reign is over. I believe thats exactly what will make them so dangerous tonight though. This is still their house and this is one final chance to "end the era" on a high note, reminding everyone that it wasn't just Brady that made this team so good, for so long. While they've struggled on the road, the Pats have remained tough at home. They've only played two home games since the start of November. Those games were against Arizona and Baltimore, both capable opponents, and the Pats beat both of them. They've only been beaten by six points once here all season. Even while struggling, the Pats have still only given up 63 points their past four games, an average of less than 16 ppg. The earlier meeting was decided by three points. If the Bills do manage to win here, I certainly don't expect it to be "easy." Grab the points. |
|||||||
12-27-20 | Titans v. Packers -3 | Top | 14-40 | Win | 100 | 131 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on GREEN BAY. Usually, the Packers are a "popular" team. However, the Titans are kind of the 'flavor of the week' these days, so that's allowed this line to come down lower than it normally would be. Indeed, with the Pack off b2b ATS losses and the Titans off b2b ATS wins, we're getting excellent value with the Rodgers and co. While the Pack may not have covered, they still won each of their last two games by seven or more points. In fact, 10 of their 11 wins have come by at least seven points and ALL 11 of them have come by a minimum of four points. (Three of Tennessee's four losses came by six or more and ALL of them came by at least a field goal.) While Henry is a load, the Packers run defense is improved from last season. I expect them to do a relatively good job at slowing down the Titans' big back. On the other hand, Rodgers should have a field day against a Titan pass defense that ranks among the worst in the league. The Pack, who are trying to lock down the #1 seed in the NFC, are 19-4 SU at home the past 2+ seasons. Expect them to improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way. |
|||||||
12-27-20 | Bengals v. Texans OVER 44 | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 32 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Cincinnati/Houston OVER the total. With neither of these teams playing for playoff positioning, there's little reason to play conservatively. Yet, the O/U line has come down from its opener. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Houston has seen four of its last five games produce at least 46 combined points. (The other saw 43 points scored.) Overall, on the season, Texan games have averaged 50.1 points. While Cincinnati games have averaged "only" 44.8 points, the Bengals come in confident, having just scored 27 against the Steelers last time out. While the Texans managed only 81 rushing yards against the Colts last week, its worth noting that the OVER is 6-1 the past seven times that they'd rushed for less than 90 yards in their previous game. Look for those stats to improve as this one proves higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
12-26-20 | Dolphins v. Raiders UNDER 48.5 | Top | 26-25 | Loss | -109 | 28 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on Miami/LV UNDER the total. Considering that the Dolphins allow just 18.4 ppg, I believe that this number is generously high. While they're not in Miami's class defensively, having fired their defensive coordinator before last week's game, the Raiders are determined to improve on that side of the ball. Facing an offensively challenged Dolphin team should help in that regard. I expect a heavy dose of the run from both teams, which will help to keep the clock moving. (Both teams rank in the top half of the NFL, in terms of rushing attempts per game.) Over their past six games, the Dolphins only allowed more than 21 points once - and that was against the defending world champs. Take away that game against KC and the Dolphins have allowed 12, 7 and three points over their last three. While many assume all Raider games will be high-scoring, I'm expecting this one to result in a relatively low-scoring affair. |
|||||||
12-26-20 | Western Kentucky +4.5 v. Georgia State | Top | 21-39 | Loss | -110 | 169 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on WESTERN KENTUCKY in the Lending Tree Bowl. The Panthers got the better of the Hilltoppers when these teams met in a bowl game in 2017. Three years later, I expect the Hilltoppers to settle the score. While the Panthers have the edge on offense, the Hilltoppers have been much better on defense. I like the momentum that WKU brings into this game; the Hilltoppers have won three straight, winning by a bigger margin each time out. They've only got one loss by more than four points in the past two months and that came at BYU, which was undefeated at the time. The Panthers have been involved in five games decided by seven or fewer points. Likewise, the Hilltoppers have seen five of their games decided by seven or less. The Hilltoppers are 5-1 ATS the past six times that they were underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range. The Hilltoppers are happy to be here and they're coming in hungry. While I like the outright win, in what should be a close one, I'm grabbing the points. |
|||||||
12-25-20 | Vikings +7.5 v. Saints | Top | 33-52 | Loss | -124 | 49 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on MINNESOTA. While their chances of making the playoffs are indeed slim, the Vikings aren't mathematically elmiminated yet. (They need to win both their games and get some help.) I expect their very best effort on Christmas Day. The Vikings have an offense capable of staying with the Saints. They've scored at least 27 points in four of their past five games. The Saints only recent win by more than five points came against a Denver team which was missing all of its quarterbacks. The Saints are just 2-5 ATS the past seven times that they were favored in the 3.5 to 9.5 range. They're also only 5-11 ATS the past 16 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 49.5 or greater. The Vikings are 5-1 ATS the past six times that they were off a division loss and 6-0 ATS the past six times that they were off b2b losses. Grab the points. |
|||||||
12-25-20 | Marshall v. Buffalo -185 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
I'm playing BUFFALO on the moneyline. In the MAC, prior to losing in the Championship game, the Bulls ran all over teams. Some of the teams they faced had good offenses but none were good on both sides of the ball. Strong on both sides of the ball, Buffalo looked unstoppable. Marshall is different from the typical teams that Buffalo faced in that the Herd are a good defensive team. However, unlike Buffalo, Marshall doesn't have a very potent offense. At least, not an offense in the same class as Buffalo. The Bulls score 47.8 ppg while the Herd average 30.6 ppg. Note that Marshall has scored a mere 13 points in its last two games combined. While both teams are disappointed with the way the season concluded, I say that the Bulls superior offense will ultimately prove the difference. Buffalo digs deep and improves to 21-7 SU its past 28, when listed as a favorite. |
|||||||
12-24-20 | Hawaii v. Houston OVER 62.5 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on Hawaii/Houston OVER the total. The last time these teams met was in the Hawaii Bowl in 2003. They brawled at the end of a wild 54-48 (3-OT) win by the Warriors. That was a long time ago. However, I'm expecting another high-scoring affair, this Christmas Eve. While it hasn't played in awhile, Houston has scored 83 points its last two games. I expect the explosive Cougars to have plenty of success against a suspect Hawaii defense which allows 420 yards per game. On the other side of the ball, the Cougars, have given up 133 points over their past four, an average of more than 33 points allowed per game. Hawaii scored 38 points its last game after allowing 35 in its previous game. The Warriors, too, should have success on offense, facing a Houston defense which allows an average of 32.6 ppg. All things considered, I feel this number, which has come down a bit from its opener, is a little low. While they won't match the 2003 bowl, I look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
12-23-20 | Florida Atlantic v. Memphis OVER 49.5 | Top | 10-25 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on Memphis/FAU OVER the total. These teams have very different stats. FAU games have been low-scoring, the reason we're working with quite a low O/U number. Yet, Memphis games have averaged more than 61 points. While the Owls did have some low-scoring games, they come into this one off a high-scoring 45-31 loss. They've scored 24 or more in three of their last four and I expect them to have success against a supsect Memphis defense. The Tigers played 10 games this season. Nine of those produced a minimum of 56 points. FAU saw last year's bowl game finish with a score of 52-28, a game which finished above the number by double-digits. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
12-23-20 | Georgia Southern v. Louisiana Tech +7 | 38-3 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
I'm playing on LA Tech. This line has climbed from its opener and I believe we're now getting excellent value with the underdog. Georgia Southern has lost three of its last four games. The Eagles have won only once, by more than seven points, in their last eight games. Playing fairly close to home, the Bulldogs are going to be fired up. Prior to losing at TCU, the Bulldogs were off wins against North Texas and UAB. The Bulldogs have dominated Sun Belt teams over the years, going a perfect 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS. In what could be a close one, I'm grabbing the points. |
|||||||
12-21-20 | Steelers v. Bengals +15 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CINCINNATI. Mike Tomlin said this of the Bengals: "We expect to get the very best of Cincinnati. That's a rivalry-type game. It's an opportunity for them to have a feel-good in the midst of a trying circumstance of a season for them.'' I expect that to absolutely be the case. Naturally, the Steelers would like a big win. However, they haven't played well recently and they've got much bigger games to come. For the Bengals, there won't be any bigger games. As Tomlin said, this is a hated division rival, one which already hammered them and this is a nationally televised Monday night game. We're getting some extra line value with Finley in at QB, instead of Allen. Yet, Allen was 0-3 as a starter and he wasn't exactly lighting it up. Finley will be out to prove that he should have been starting, once Burrow went down, all along. The Steelers are 1-4 ATS the past five times that they were favored by greater than 10 points and they're just 13-31 ATS their last 44 in that role. I'm grabbing the points. |
|||||||
12-21-20 | Steelers v. Bengals OVER 40 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on Pittsburgh/Cincinnati OVER the total. When these teams met earlier, the O/U line was 45. They finished with 46. Now, with both teams having played some recent 'unders' and the Bengals starting Finley at QB, the O/U line is considerably lower. Before, it was above the 44 mark. Now, we're working with an O/U line below the important 41 mark. I feel thats providing us with excellent value. The Steelers are out to prove that "all is fine." The Bengals are out to prove that they're not a joke. Both offenses are going to be motivated to move the ball. Both teams have seen their games average more than 44 points overall, on the season. Eleven of Pittsburgh's 13 games, including each of the past two, have finished with at least 40 points. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
12-21-20 | North Texas v. Appalachian State -19.5 | 28-56 | Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show | |
I'm playing on APPLACHIAN STATE. While this line may initially appear high, I believe that it could easily be even bigger. The Mountaineers, 5-0 in bowl games, are much stronger on the defensive side of the ball. While both offenses can score, North Texas allows a whopping 41.3 ppg compared to the Mountaineers' 19.3 ppg. The Mountaineers have thrived with eight day's rest in between games the past couple of seasons, going 3-0 when in that situation. I believe that they're going to come in with a chip on their shoulder. North Texas isn't immune to getting blown out having lost 49-21 vs. Charlotte and 49-17 at UTSA, just two of this season's four double-digit losses. The Mountaineers have six double-digit wins this season and four by 21 or more. I say this will be #5. |
|||||||
12-20-20 | Browns v. Giants +6.5 | 20-6 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 16 m | Show | |
I'm playing on the NYG. The Giants didn't show up last week. Now fully in must win mode, I expect them to bounce back with their very best effort. This line went up, due to a week of headlines by the Giants and with McCoy taking over for Jones. I believe those extra points are providing us with excellent value. The Giants have the type of team that can beat Cleveland. I say that because the Giants are usually pretty good at stopping the run. Limit Cleveland's ground game and force Mayfield to throw and he can make mistakes. This may be McCoy's last chance to show the world that he can play and I expect him to give his team a chance to win. Remember, the last time that McCoy started, the Giants beat the Seahawks. Coach Judge said this of McCoy's effort: "I think he did a lot of things well. First off, I love the way he just controlled the flow of the game, the tempo of the game. Colt was on the line of scrimmage, identifying what the defense was in, putting us in the right place, made some big plays for us down the stretch with some key completions to continue drives." Having a start under his belt, with this offense, should help the veteran. While the Giants do have some injuries, the same is true of Cleveland which will be without its starting right guard and others. Before last week'd dud, the Giants had gone 5-3 their previous eight games and the three losses came by one, two and three points. As for the Browns, they haven't won a game by more than six points for more than two months. Grab the points. |
|||||||
12-20-20 | Eagles v. Cardinals OVER 47.5 | Top | 26-33 | Win | 100 | 151 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on Philadelphia/Arizona OVER the total. While watching the Eagles beat the Saints last week, a number of things stood out to me. Of those, the two most important were: 1. The offense was a lot better with Hurts than with Wentz. He played smart, made good throws while also running very effectively. In fact, both Hurts and Sanders ran for more than 100 yards. Certainly, the offense looked much improved overall. Keep in mind that the Eagles were facing the #1 rated defense in the league. Also, it should be noted that Hurts led the Eagles on a very impressive drive at the end of the first half. Got them all the way down to the 2-yard line, or so, only to bring in Eliott and have him miss a chip-shot field goal. That was a bit of a momentum-killer but it sure wasn't on Hurts. Sean Payton said this of Hurts: " .... was impressive just watching him. I thought he played with poise, made some throws. He was smart. He did a good job." 2. The second important thing that really stood out was that the Eagles' defenders were dropping like flies. Already banged up on that side of the ball, a number of Philadelphia defenders went down. To their credit, the remaining Eagle defenders hung tough. However, a road game against Kyler Murray and the Cardinals is entirely different than a home game against Taysom Hill. The Eagles have given up 30, 22, 27 and 38 points their past four road games, an average of more than 29 ppg. While the Cards, who have faced some tough defenses of late, have scored "only" 26 and 28 points their past two games, it wasn't long ago when they had a stretch of five straight games where they scored 30 or more. Overall, Arizona games are averaging 52.4 points. I expect both offenses to have success in this one, the final combined score finishing above the reasonably low total. |
|||||||
12-20-20 | Texans +7.5 v. Colts | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 19 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm playing on HOUSTON. These teams recently played a close one at Houston and I'm expecting another relatively close affair this afternoon. Yes, the Texans are playing out the string. However, this is still a divsional game against an opponent playing a meaningful game. Interim coach Romeo Crennel commented: ''They're playing for the division lead .... as far as the way that we will respond, I hope we will respond like we did two weeks ago and play a tremendous game.'' The Colts have given up 31, 45, 20 and 27 points their last four games. Prior to getting blown out at Chicago, the Texans hadn't lost by more than six points since October. Expect them to bounce back with their best effort, giving the Colts all they can handle en route to at least a cover. |
|||||||
12-20-20 | Bucs v. Falcons +7 | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ATLANTA. While Tampa has more to play for, in terms of playoffs, I expect a highly motivated effort from Matt Ryan and the Falcons. Not only are the Bucs a division rival, but the Falcons haven't forgotten what Brady did to them in the Super Bowl. The last thing Ryan and co. want is Brady to come in and embarrass them. While Jones remains out, Ridley has stepped up. He had eight receptions (1 TD) last week for 124 yards. Thats six times he's broke the 100-yard mark. So, Ryan isn't without weapons. The Falcons are 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS the past couple of seasons, in the final four weeks of the reg. season. The Falcons have only lost by more than seven points three times this entire season, none of those losses in the laset three games. The last time that they lost by more than seven was on the road, at New Orleans. Prior to that, again, on the road, at Green Bay. The only time that they lost by more than seven at home was the very first game of the entire season, against Seattle. Since then, they've been competitive in every home game. With the line climbing from its opener, I'm grabbing the points. |
|||||||
12-19-20 | Tulsa v. Cincinnati -14 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -106 | 101 h 51 m | Show |
I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Bearcats have had a great season and I expect them to keep on rolling Saturday. With the exception of a 3-point win against UCF, Cincy beat every other opponent by a minimum of 14 points. It should be noted that that the game against UCF was on the road. This game, however, will be played at Nippert Stadium. The last three teams (ECU, Houston and Memphis) that have visited here have lost by scores of 55-17, 38-10 and 49-10. Going back further finds the Bearcats at 18-0 SU and 12-6 ATS their last 18 at home. While Tulsa allows 19.9 ppg, Cincy allows just 15 ppg. On the other side of the ball, the Bearcats' advantage is even bigger. Tulsa averages 27.7 ppg. Cincinnati averages 40.9. While I expect Tulsa to have trouble scoring, no team has kept Cincy to less than 36 points for more than two months. Bearcats roll. |
|||||||
12-19-20 | Boise State -6 v. San Jose State | 20-34 | Loss | -111 | 101 h 17 m | Show | |
I'm playing BOISE STATE on the money-line. Lose this game and the Spartans have still had a great season. Thats not the case for the Broncos. This will be the Broncos' fifth trip to the MWC title game in the past seven seasons, their fourth straight. They won the title in 2014, 2017 and 2019. Anything less than a victory here will be considered failure. As Boise receiver Khalil Shakir noted: "We haven’t done anything yet. Nothing has been accomplished." Remember, San Jose State went just 3-21 in 2017 and 2018. Last season, the Spartans were 5-7. So, a 3-year record of 8-28, before this season. Again, they can hold their heads high even with a loss here. Despite getting hammered by BYU, a team San Jose State didn't have to face, the Broncos still score an average of 36.2 points per game, as compared to the Spartans' 30.3 ppg. The Spartans are 6-16 SU their last 22 as underdogs. During that span, the Broncos are 24-4 SU as favorites. Going back further finds Boise at 45-9 SU when listed as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 range. All things considered, I feel that this line could easily be much higher. Broncos win. |
|||||||
12-19-20 | Bills v. Broncos +7 | Top | 48-19 | Loss | -125 | 102 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on DENVER. The Bills are having a great season and they're off an impressive win over the Steelers, on Sunday night. Everyone saw that nationally televised game. That's led to many jumping on the Buffalo bandwagon which, in turn, has created excellent value with the Broncos. The big win over Buffalo also may well have the Bills patting themselves on the back a bit. Now, they play a road game in altitude, on a short week. Its also important to note that Bills have a game against New England on deck. Last week, when playing against the Saints in their loss against the Eagles, I noted that the Saints had a huge game against the Chiefs on deck. For them, there was no bigger possible game to look ahead to then a date with the defending world champs. For Buffalo, however, a date with the 11-time defending AFC East champs is arguably an even bigger game to look ahead to. Even though the Patriot reign on top of the division will come to an end, a game against them is still a big deal for Buffalo. Yes, the Bills can clinch the AFC East with a win (or Miami loss) this week. However, there's still plenty of time for that, so there shouldn't be any absolute urgency. As for the Broncos, they're off one of their best games of the season, a 32-27 win at Carolina. Before that, they lost by only six, at KC. The last time that Lock started a home game, the Broncos beat Miami. Speaking of Lock, he was 21 of 27 last week, throwing for four TDs and 0 INTs. His 149.5 passer rating was third best (only Elway and Manning were better) in franchise history. With a chance to play a home game in front of a National audience and not wanting the Bills to clinch a playoff berth in their building, I say that Lock and the Broncos rise to the occasion and give their guests all that they can handle. |
|||||||
12-18-20 | UAB +5 v. Marshall | 22-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UAB. These teams each have one CUSA championship in their history. UAB won by two points (27-25 over MTSU) two years ago while Marshall won by three points (26-23 over LA Tech) in 2014. Another close one won't surprise this evening, which makes getting more than a field goal very attractive. Keep in mind that Marshall hasn't won a game in more than a month. The Herd have only played one game during that span and they lost 20-0 against Rice. Their QB threw five INTs and they couldn't even manage 250 total yards. Yes, they're better than that and they'll be determined to prove that. However, the situation is far from ideal for them. Note that UAB won at Rice to get here, beating the same Owls that blanked Marshall. That game was a 21-16 final marking UAB's third straight decided by five or less. In fact, the Blazers have only lost by more than four points once all season and that was way back in September, at Miami. Grab the points. |
|||||||
12-17-20 | Chargers v. Raiders UNDER 53 | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 50 m | Show | |
I'm playing on LA/LV UNDER the total. Needless to say, having just fired their defensive coordinator, the Raiders want to place an emphasis on improved defense. Yes, the Raiders are banged-up on that side of the ball. However, as Gruden says: "We just got to have guys step up." On offense, to try and take some pressure off of the defense, I expect a heavy dose of the run as the Raiders try and control the clock. As for the Chargers, they're off a solid defensive effort, as they limited Atlanta to just 17 points. On the other side of the ball, the Charger offense has only averaged 10 points the past two games. Each of those games finished with 45 or fewer points. While those games were both at home, the Chargers' last two road games have also both finished with 50 or less. Don't be surprised when this one proves lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
12-14-20 | Ravens v. Browns OVER 45.5 | 47-42 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Baltimore/Cleveland OVER the total. When these teams met earlier, the O/U line was 47.5. Baltimore did its part to get over that number, scoring 38 points. However, Cleveland managed just six points. We're likely to see a closer game tonight, this time with both teams contributing to the scoring. Indeed, both these offenses were clicking last time out. Lamar and the Ravens dropped 34 points on Dallas. The Browns were even better. They put 41 points on the board, at Tennessee. Speaking of Cleveland, it should be noted that the Browns will be without their top cornerback (Ward) for this one. I believe that his absence hurts their defense. While Baltimore games are averaging "only" 45.6 points, Cleveland games are averaging a much higher 52.3 points. All things considered, this number is a little low. |
|||||||
12-14-20 | Ravens -3 v. Browns | Top | 47-42 | Win | 100 | 27 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on BALTIMORE. The Browns have definitely gotten better since the Ravens hammered them earlier in the season. However, I don't feel that they're improved enough to take the next step and to beat the Ravens. When healthy, Baltimore, has handled teams not named KC or Pittsburgh. I mention that as the Ravens are now mostly healthy after having been hit hard by Covid-restrictions. Speaking of "missing players," you won't hear much about it, but the Browns will be without their top cornerback (Ward) for this one. I believe that his absence hurts them. The Ravens were 7-1 in the final four weeks of the reg. season the past two seasons. Expect them to improve on those stats Monday night, covering the small number along the way. |
|||||||
12-13-20 | Steelers v. Bills UNDER 49 | 15-26 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Pittsburgh/Buffalo UNDER the total. On a chilly night in Buffalo, I expect the defenses to steal center stage. The Steelers struggled on offense last week. The receivers dropped balls and they couldn't run the ball when they needed to. They've now been held below 20 points in both December games and they've seen each of their last three games finish below the total. On the other side of the ball, however, the Steelers remain dominant. They allow just 17.6 ppg, the best mark in the NFL. The Bills defense has been improved the past couple of weeks, as they've allowed 24 and 17 points. A closer look shows that they've played four straight against teams from the NFC. Their last three games against AFC teams have all finished with 45 or fewer points, scores of 24-21, 18-10 and 26-17, that one coming against the high-scoring Chiefs. All things considered, I feel that this number is generously high. |
|||||||
12-13-20 | Saints v. Eagles OVER 42.5 | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NO/Philadelphia OVER the total. This O/U line came down and is very low, beneath the important 44 mark and the lowest on the entire board. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. I like the fact that the Eagles have finally made the QB switch and I expect that move to have a positive effect. Yes, the Saints' defense has been playing well. This is their third straight road game though and they're facing a desperate team with an aggressive coach. NO games are still averaging 49 points on the season while Philly games are averaging 46.7 points. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |