I am traveling today, and there will be no write ups. The play is on the over.

I am traveling today, and there will be no write ups. The play is on the under.

I am traveling today, and there will be no write ups. The play is on the under

I am traveling today, and there will be no write ups. The play is on the over.

The Oklahoma St. Cowboys have one of the worst pass defenses in the country. The Cowboys are allowing 8.2 yards per pass attempt. The elite Colorado passing attack is averaging 8.4 yards per passing attempt. The best of this Oklahoma St. team is their passing offense which averages 7.4 yards per pass attempt. The Buffaloes are allowing 7.4 yards per pass attempt, and both these teams love to throw the ball. They combine for an average of 76 passes per game, and with the way this match up stacks up as strength vs. weakness on both sides, I would expect to see 85+ passing attempts in this game, with a lot of success. Make the play over the total.

This game fits a total situation that is 107-61 ATS. Make the play under the total.

The LA Chargers have not played any game this season where both teams combined to score more than 44 points. The Chargers elite defense has allowed just 13.1ppg. The Chargers 9 games have averaged a combined 33.8 total points on the season. This total is 14 points greater than that. The Bengals have a good offense, but they have faced mostly bad or below average defensive teams. The Bengals have faced 6 opponents that average ranking #25 in yards per pay allowed. They have faced 4 teams that rank in the top half of the league in defensive yards per play and they have averaged fewer than 25ppg. I like the under in this one.

The San Francisco 49ers defense is no longer elite as it has been over the past few seasons. The Niners held 10 of their first 13 opponents to fewer than 20 points last season, but since then they have faced 11 teams and 10 of them have gotten to 20 or more. These teams put up 60 total points in their game in Seattle earlier in the season. Seattle has put up 20 or more points in 8 of their 9 games this season. Seattle has allowed just shy of 30ppg in their last 6 this season. I like over the total in this one.

South Carolina has one of the best defenses in the country at #6 in fewest yards per play by their opponents. Only the elite offenses of LSU, Alabama, and Ole Miss had any success. Those 3 teams averaged 30ppg, well below their averages. Mediocre or average offenses have struggled against this defense. Their other 6 opponents have averaged 11.3ppg against them. The Missouri offense ranks #94 and will struggle to get to 10 points. Missouri has a good defense and the SC offense is very average. I like the under.

he Tulane football program has risen from the ashes. The Green Wave is 8- on the season, and is coming off two consecutive seasons of 11 and 12 wins. They are 8-2 on the season and a third straight 10+ in season is well in reach. This is a team that won 10 or more games just 1 other time over their past 33 seasons. Tulane has an explosive offense that has averaged 44.6ppg in their last 7 contests. Navy is 7-2 on the season, but the losses have all come in their last 3 games. Navy has struggled to defend against elite offensive teams, as they allowed 51 to Notre Dame and 44 to Memphis. The Tulane defense is strong, especially vs. the pass where they rank #21 in the nation in opponents yards per pass attempt. Their run defense has been mediocre and ranks #76 in the country in stopping the run. That means the best part of their defense won't come into play here, as Navy is going to run the ball on most dons, and should be able to score a decent amount of points. I like the over.

Miami has not gotten Tyreke Hill up to the level of last season, even with Tua back at QB. The Rams do a great job with WR's but they really struggle guarding tight ends, and screen passes. That may be good for Tua, as those plays generally get the ball out quickly, and that is where success is to be found against the Rams. This game also fits a total situation that has been 107-65 ATS, based on Monday Night games, and a couple other things. Make the play over the total.

The Saints have been awful on defense. They’ve struggled mightily against the run, giving up 225 rushing yards to Denver and another 277 rushing yards and four touchdowns to Tampa Bay. They even lost to a Carolina Panthers team led by quarterback Bryce Young, which shows how bad the defense has been. The Falcons and Kirk Cousins have averaged 30.3ppg on the road this season. Add in a total situation that has been 96-63 to the over, and I like this one to go over the total.

The Memphis Tigers come into this game with a record of 7-2 on the season. They will take on the Rice Owls who was just an upset winner vs, Navy. Memphis has proven through the season that they can hold down a bad offense. Memphis allowed 17 to Troy, 122 to Florida St., 7 to Middle Tennessee, 3 to S. Fla., and 0 to FCS Northern Arizona. Rice has little offense as they average just 4.9 yards per play, which ranks #110 in the country. Rice does have a better than average defense that ranks #31 allowing just 4.9 yards per play.The 4 FBS teams mentioned above average ranking #104 on offense and Rice is #110, so I don`t expect much from the rice offense, but I also think that Rice has a good enough defense to keep Memphis from going off. Make the play under the total.

This game is strictly a situational play. The Rams have a situation in which they have played 17-1-3 to the under. Make the play under the total.

he Tennessee Titans look like they will have Will Levis back at QB this week. He has been taking reps for the starters all week. While that sounds like good news for the Titans it is not. Mason Rudolph actually has the better numbers. The Titans have put up 17 or fewer points in all but one game this season. Jacoby Brissett will be at QB if Maye can't get cleared from concussion protocal. That is also a downgrade. Neww England has managed just 15.5ppg on the season, and with negatives at both QB positions, and already poor offenses, I like the under. I will side with the under in this one.

UConn has gotten off to a 5-3 start and have a chance to become Bowl eligible tonight vs. Georgia St. at home. The Huskies have some issues on offense. They can't get the ball in the hands of their best offensive player R Skylar Bell. Since starting QB Joe Fagnano went down with a season ending injury the offense has done little, and Bell not part of it. Bell has just 7 catches the last 3 games for 81 yards. UConn has scored fewer points than their previous game for 4 straight games now. Defensively they are very good. They allowed 33ppg to the 3 power4 conference teams on their schedule and 11.6ppg in all other contests. They are limited in FG's taken as they are 2-6 from 40+ yards out or more. QB Zach Gibson has been better at QB, but the Panthers even with the improvement in the passing game has scored 0ppg in their last 3, and UConn is better defensively than all those teams. I like the under.

The New Orleans Saints look like they will once again be without Derek Carr. That means more of Spencer Rattler. Look for a lot of attempts by Rattler for short safe passes to running backs, but the Chargers have the #1 success rate against opposing running backs. The Saints after opening the season scoring 91 points in their first  games have no scored just 86 in their last 5. The Chargers don't score, but their defense seems to keep them in every game as they have yet to allow any of their 6 opponents to score more than 0, and their season average is 13.8ppg against them. None of the Chargers 6 games have seen both teams combine to get to 40 total points, and I don't think this is the week to see that number topped. Make the play under the total.

This game fits a long term total situation that is 685-522-21 to the under. That is a 1200+ game situation that connects on just about 57% of all bets. Make the play under the total.

This is a big game in Tampa Bay as the Atlanta Falcons will travel to take on the Bucs. Both these teams sit on top of the NFL South at 4-3. The Tampa Bay season took a big blow when they lost their top 2 receivers Evans, and Godwin. This will seriously downgrade the Tampa Bay offense, and Baker Mayfield's option is setting up a lot of screen passes, but that is the Falcon's strength on defense. Mayfield will have his work cut out for him. There is a lot at stake as the winner improves their playoff chances by about 40% vs. the loser. This could lead to a conservative defensive struggle, with Tampa Bay slowing the game down. I like the under.

We are getting to the time of year where the weather in Buffalo starts to be a factor. That will not be the case this week as it will be sunny, calm, and dry with a high temperature of 66 degrees is forecast. The Bills have scored 30+ points in 10 of their last 16 home games. The Bills offense has scored a total of 53 points in 3 straight road games, but have topped that considerably at home, here they have scored 30+ in both. This game also fits a situation that is 96-57 to the over. I like over the total in this one.

Miami comes into this game at 6-0 to start the season and the Hurricanes potent offense has scored 38 or more points in all 6 games. Miami is averaging 47.7ppg. The Hurricanes allowed just 41 total points in their first 4 games against some bad offensive teams, but they are off of games vs. California and Virginia Tech where they allowed 34, and 38 points. Louisville certainly has a strong offense at 36.2ppg. This game has all the makings of a shootout. The Miami attack is averaging an elite 8.1 yards per play which is # in the nation behind Navy, while the Cardinals are producing 6.9 yards per play which ranks 16th in the country. Both offenses will have a decided advantage hen they have the ball. Make the play over the total.

The NY Jets have already fired their coach, as they host the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football. Aaron Rodgers has taken a beating the last 2 games, as he continues to struggle vs. the blitz. The last 2 games he has averaged fewer than 4 yards per pass play. The Vikings, and Broncos rank #1 and #3 in terms of the highest blitzing team. They average blitzing 50% of the time. This week, a shorthanded Buffalo defense that blitzed less than 30 other NFL teams. They will be missing Von Miller and Ed Oliver again. I like over the total in this one.

This game fits a total situation that is 412-354-31 to the under (53.8% on a huge sample size of over 850 games). There is also a subset of that which is 296-227-19 (56.6%). Make the play under the total.

This game fits a situation that loves the over. Play over the total in week 5 if a team is averaging ewer than 16ppg and on the road vs. a team that has at least 1 win. This is 55-28-1 ATS covering 66.1% of the time. Make the play over the total.

This game fits a situation that loves the over. Play over the total in week 5 if a team is averaging ewer than 16ppg and on the road vs. a team that has at least 1 win. This is 55-28-1 ATS covering 66.1% of the time. Make the play over the total.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have a quandary. Trevor Lawrence has been a big play passer, but his short passing and ranks 3rd worst in short passing accuracy. At the same time he has 9 passes of 20 or more air yards which is first in the NFL. The Jags have not done much after the catch but with TE Evan Engram back this week, he ranked 2nd out of all TE`s. Anthony Richardson amazingly has 0 yards passing vs. the blitz, but Jacksonville is a team that blitzes very little. They don`t blitz over 80% of the time. The Jaguars defense is not healthy and they are giving up 27.3ppg on the season. The Colts put up 27 on the Steelers last week, and should move the ball in this game. Make the play over the total.

When I saw the total for this game I did a double take. Both of these teams are horrible on offense and decent on defense. Hawaii games are averaging 41ppg on the season and all 4 of their games have played under the total. San Diego St. games are also averaging 41ppg. Their 3 games against FBS teams have all gone under and the Aztecs are averaging 10.3ppg against FBS opponents. Don't see this one getting here. Make the play under the total.

The Thursday Night NFL game will feature division rivals as Tampa Bay heads to Atlanta to take on the Falcons. The Falcons look like they had their best offensive game of the year last week when they scored a season high 26 points vs. New Orleans. Looking closer, the Falcons got a lucky win as they got a pick-6 and a score from a muffed punt. The offense generated very little. If you take those scores out, the Falcons offense is generating a woeful 15ppg. RB Bijan Robinson is going to play a huge role in this game, as the Bucs have struggled against the run all season, and this should help slow the game down. Thursday Night home favorites tend to do well as they are 112-85-6 ATS, but in division just 53-47 ATS. However, Thursday Night home favorites in division games are 62-38 ATS to the under, covering 62% of the time. I like the under.

Michigan is off to a 3-1 start, and the Wolverines have not scored more than 30 points in a game yet this season. They beat USC because of some long runs, as well as a defensive touchdown. Alex Orji does not look like a capable QB as he threw for a paltry 22 yards. Minnesota already has 2 shutouts on the season, and their defense is elite. They have a similar problem as Michigan, as the offense has not been good at all, and is way below average. Totals in the Big-10 of fewer than 36 points are 8-3 to the under. These teams pace their offense as slower than a normal paced game, which will limit possessions in this game. I like the under.

These teams have generally both been under teams, and I like the numbers in that regard tonight. Washington has allowed just 41 total points all season in 4 games at an elite 3.8 yards per play, and have generated 11 sacks on the season. Washington is 45-29-1 to the under since 2018, including 10-2 to a total of 47 or fewer points. These teams also fit in a historically good play on the under that has gone 84-37-7 to the under. Make the play under the total.

This game fits a total situation that is 35-2 ATS to the OVER. Make the play over the total.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have opened up on the road at 2-0 while scoring just 1 TD in the 2 games. The Steelers have always played conservatively on the road under coach Mike Tomlin once he got his feet on the ground. His team since the start of the 2012 season has played 63-30-3 to the under in road games, but at home they are 47-45-2 to the over. I don't think the running game will do the job vs. the Chargers. The Chargers have the lowest EPA in the NFL through two weeks defending the run. The Steelers are 3rd best against the run, so both teams are going to have to throw the ball a lot more if they want to win this game. I think this total is off because the game situation on both sides does not look friendly to running the ball with any great deal of success. I like the under.

UConn scored 63 points against Merrimack, which is the most points they have scored in their history. The Huskies are playing on offense at a much faster pace this season, and there games should turn out to be higher scoring. Duke is also doing the same. This is also backed by a 312-241 system to the over. Make the play over the total.

Florida St. was supposed to be a top 5 team coming into this season, but their 0-2 start has been hard to swallow for fans. The offense has averaged just 17ppg. Memphis has allowed just 17 points in their two games against subpar teams. I think the winner here scores somewhere in the 20s which would max out the total high point at 57. I don't see both teams able to push this one over the total, and with a game situation that is 119-71 to the under, I will make the play on this one under the total.

The Atlanta Falcons will surely have an upgrade at QB behind Kirk Cousins. Cousins will have the luxury of passing behind the 2nd best offensive line in terms of pass blocking in the league last season, and return all 5 this season. This will be a battle in the trenches as the Pittsburgh Steelers have what could be the best pass rushing unit in the NFL lead by TJ Watt and his 19 sacks from a year ago. I think they are a wash playing against each other. What I have eyes on is since 1996 a team that won 6,7, or 8 games last season are 168-199-3 to the under. The Steelers have played a lot of conservative football on the road as they are 45-18-2 to the under in their last 65 road games. Make the play under the total.

This is strictly a strong week 1 tendency. All NFL road favorites in week 1 of the season are 94-59-5 to the under (61.4%), since 1995. Make the play on the under. When the line is less than -4 that becomes 64-34-3 to the under (65.3%). Make the play under the total.

This is strictly a strong week 1 tendency. All NFL road favorites in week 1 of the season are 94-59-5 to the under (61.4%), since 1995. Make the play on the under. When the line is less than -4 that becomes 64-34-3 to the under (65.3%). Make the play under the total.

The Memphis Tigers easily won last week 40-0 over an FCS team in North Alabama. Memphis has upgraded their defensive coordinator, and played better than the statistical match up would indicate, but hard to have a good take away on a game that was not going to be competitive. The Memphis offense is pass oriented and they spent a lot of last week putting the ball in the air. Troy is not even close to what they were a year ago, and lost as a 7.5 point home favorite to Nevada. Perhaps more ominous is the weather for this game. While it will be sunny and in the 70s, the winds are expected to be sustained at 15 MPH with gusts to 25 MPH, so not ideal conditions for a team that likes to pass, and take shots downfield. That will force more running plays, which isn't what Memphis wants to do. I think the total is too high here, and will make the play under the total.

Miami, O. won the MAC Championship last season with a top notch defense that allowed fewer than 16 points per game. They might not match those numbers this season, but the defense is still going to be strong. Northwestern saw their offense held to 14 or fewer points 6 times last year. This is a team that ran one of the slowest offenses last season, and new Northwestern offensive coordinator Lujan comes over from South Dakota St. where he won 2 FCS Championships. His offense runs an even slower pace that Northwestern, so plays are going to be limited, and I think both defenses will be the best side of the ball. Make the play under the total.

This game fits a playoff total situation that is 199-107 to the under. Moreover playoff totals of 22230 or higher have been 21-32-1 to the under. The games on average beat the total by 5.97ppg. Make the play under the total.

There are a lot of factors playing into this selection. First and foremost the weather, and its impact on each team. There is a snowstorm in Baltimore today, which won't impact the play tomorrow, but what lies in its wake will. Game time temperatures tomorrow will be in the 20s. Moreover, the wind will be sustained between 15-20 MPH and gusting into the 30s.The Houston offense does not run the ball well, and the Baltimore defense excels vs. the run. Houston predicates a lot of what they do on the deep threat, but the weather, and a strong Baltimore pass defense is going to negate that. Baltimore runs the ball as well as any team in the league, and going against a soft Houston run defense, their offense is made for games like this. An abstract study on NFL games proved that a wind of 13 MPH or more sustained has more of a negative impact on the visiting team, especially if they are a dome team. The actual total in these windy conditions drop by just 2.05 ppg from the same teams playing in a dome, but the actual impact is 6.15ppg, and thus the under converts 65% of all games. Not much more needs to be said. Make the play on the under.

This is going to be a tough physical game. I get the feeling the Eagles are hiding an injury to Jalen Hurts. If not then for some reason he just fell off a cliff. His stats are hard to hide. Last year he threw 25 TDs and 6 INTs. This season 23 TDs and 15 INTs. He is running the ball at fewer than 4 yards per carry. His numbers are ugly. Tampa Bay has problems of their own. Baker Mayfield sat out of practice Thursday. He has compound injuries. He is dealing with a bad ankle, as well as injured ribs. His status is still up in the air, but my best guess he will play at some form below what he has done on the season. I think this game is going to be ugly, and the best bet is under the total.

The Detroit Lions have won just 1 playoff game in 66 years (1992). They are a tough team to play, but lost their TE last game to injury and he was an integral part of the offense. There are plenty of weapons left as the Lions still have 3 more receivers with 10 or more TDs. Will it be enough? The Rams arguably have been the best team in the NFL in the last 8 games at 7-1. The loss was in OT at Baltimore, the best team in the AFC. The Rams offense over their last 7 games is averaging 30ppg. It averaged 19.8ppg prior to that. The Lions put up 30+ points 9 times, and this game looks to me like the highest scoring game of the weekend. The Rams have played 6 of their last 7 to the over, with the only miss by 1/2 point. The Lions are 12-5 to the over at home with an average points scored in those games og 55.5ppg. Make the play over the total.

The Houston Texans made a giant leap forward making the playoffs. Houston in their previous 3 seasons managed a total of 11 wins, while posting 10 this season. A lot of that had to do with rookie QB C.J. Stroud, who had one of the best rookie seasons ever. He will face a Cleveland defense that is one of the best in the league, but with that being said the Browns defense did allow 20+ points in 11 of their games. There is one huge thing that stands out with this Browns defense. The Browns played 12 games on grass this season and allowed just 17.6ppg. It was an entirely different story when they played on artificial turf, where in their 5 games they allowed 30.2ppg, and also scored 25.6ppg. All 5 games went well over the total by an average of 16.7ppg. Joe Flacco has elevated the Browns offense as in his 5 starts they have averaged 28.8ppg. Games tend to average more points played on turf and indoors, as the elements don't come into play, or a retractable roof is open when the elements don't come into play. Make the play over the total.

This game fits a Bowl situation that is 24-4 to the over. Make the play over the total.

Florida State's level of attrition ahead of its upcoming New Year's Six appearance is eye-opening. The No. 5 Seminoles are set to be without at least 15 players on both sides of the ball in Saturday's Orange Bowl showdown against No. 6 Georgia, including seven players who earned All-ACC honors. Florida St. is down to their 3rd string QB in Brock Glenn, and he was 8/21 for 55 yards vs Louisville, and this will be a much bigger challenge. Florida St. is without their top 3 receivers tht combined to account for 53% of all receiving yards and 15 of 25 TDs. Additionally, the Seminoles have just 1 RB remaining with at least 50 carries. They have suffered key losses on defense as well. What could have been a gret game is now an exhibition game. I look for Georgia to be taking a look at young players for next season as well, and the line has grown so high the game is untouchable but the total should be a great opportunity. Make the play under the total.

With DJ James and Nehemiah Pritchett both expected to opt out of Saturday’s game against Maryland, the Tigers will be without a lot of experience against the Terrapins on the back side of the defense.  Maryland will be without its starting tight end (Corey Dyches), its best linebacker (Jaishawn Barham) and two elite defensive backs (Tarheeb Still and Corey Coley Jr.). Tagovailoa certainly is the biggest loss, but the core of what has been a very good Maryland defense will not be taking part in the bowl game. Overall the balance of who is playing tends to strongly suggest a much higher scoring game. Make the play over the total.

This game comes down to the best defense in the country that has already proven to stand up vs. better offenses than Ole Miss, while the Rebels were stopped cold by Alabama (10 points), and Georgia (17 points), and Penn St. has a better defense than both, but lacks an explosive offense. Stats and situations favor a low scoring game. Ole Miss is 89-56 to the under vs. a winning team since 1992! (16-6 lately). Make the play under the total.

A Bowl team that is no more than a 4 point dog (PK or favorite included), playing a December Bowl with a total greater than 45 but fewer than 66 points are 87-64-1 to the under. Make the play under the total.

Both QB's have opted out for this game, and it is likely going to be a game with stacked boxes and short passes, and this game fits a Bowl situation that is 40-13 to the under. Make the play on the under.

This game fits my best total which is 691-459 to the under including 23-13 in Bowl games. Make the play under the total.

Bowl games featuring a team on a 3 game or more streak to the over and playing as a favorite of 3 points or more and a total of fewer than 66 points are 13-40-2 to the under. Make the play under the total.

This line has really changed with the Tulane QB opting out, and the loss of their head coach. I think Tulane will be handing the ball off a lot, and allowing their ball hawking defense ranked 6th in forcing turnovers, play a field position clock running type game. Virginia Tech finished 6-6 with not a single signature win. The 3 toughest defenses they played saw the offense get completely shutdown. They managed 17 vs. Florida St., 16 vs. Rutgers, and 3 vs. Louisville. Tulane has played under in 10 of its last 11 games. Make the play under the total.

This game fits a bowl total situation that is 33-7-1 to the over. Make the play over the total.Make the play over the total.

Washington is allowing better than 40ppg in their last 3, and that make the over appear very attractive. However, a team that has allowed 115 or more points in their last 3 games are 53-28 to the under. Coach McVay is also 48-32 to the under when his team is posted as a favorite, and Washington is 97-71 to the under as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Make the play under the total.

This would normally be a trap game for Kansas City, but off of 2 losses they will show up today, and I think the Patriots will not find the end-zone in this game, and their defense will limit a Kansas City offense that is not nearly as good as we have seen in recent years. Backed by a situation that is 109-76 I will make the play under the total.

I wrote a lot about the advantages in this game, and it also fits a total situation that is 40-9-3 to the under. Make the play under the total.

I am sorry that there are no write ups this week, as I am traveling.

The play is on the UNDER

I am sorry that there are no write ups this week, as I am traveling.

The play is on the UNDER

The Philadelphia Eagles are in a great situation for this game to go over the total. The Eagles are 41-9 ATS to the over following a game where they scored fewer than 23 points as a dog. Make the play over the total.

One thing that history shows is when an NFL team has played at least 4 straight games that have gone under the total, the odds-makers compensate the total, and quite often the adjustment ahead of the anticipated public jumping on the bandwagon, turns the line in favor of the other direction which is over the total, especially when it is a below average total. A team off 4 straight games playing under the total that has a season long scoring margin of -4 points or more (Denver), and playing to a low total from 34 to 41 are 71-39-2 ATS to the over. Make the play over the total.

The New England Patriots certainly have offensive issues as they have averaged 14.1ppg on the season. The Patriots have scored 17 or fewer points in 8 of their last 9 games, so they have been consistently bad. The Giants put up 31 points last week, and that number is very deceiving. The Giants were held to 292 total yards and did their scoring because the Washington Commanders turned the ball over 6 times. The Giants in their previous 8 games averaged fewer than 11ppg. Coach Belichick has seen his team play 10-0 ATS to the under when failing to cover in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. The Giants over the past 3 seasons are 12-1 ATS to the under as a home dog. The Giants have a long history of playing under vs. a team with a losing record as they are 106-78 ATS to the under. I like the under in this one.

Virginia Tech has not fared well offensively vs. the opponents on their schedule with a strong defense (Louisville 3, and Rutgers 16). They have however scored well when facing most other defenses. The Hokies otherwise average around 30ppg. Virginia is giving up 32ppg so I see the Hokies moving the ball well here. Virginia has an improved offense. The Cavs averaged just 21.4ppg through their first 5 games, but over their last 6 have averaged 26ppg. This game looks like it should be in the high 50s, and the game applies to a 177-108 ATS situation to the over as well. Make the play over the total.

Miami, O. is a very strong defense for a MAC team as they have allowed just 16.5ppg on the season. The Red Hawks are allowing just 10ppg in MAC games. Ball St. allowed 40 points or more in 4 of their first 5 games but in their last 5 games they have allowed less than 15ppg. Neither of these teams have much of an offense and they tend to just run the ball and play field position. Make the play under the total.

This Egg Bowl rivalry goes back a long way. Ole Miss comes into this game t 9-2 on the season and the 2 losses were to top 10 teams in Georgia, and Alabama. The defense looks worse than it actually is because they have faced Alabama,LSU, and Georgia. They allowed 1,605 yards in those 3 games. Otherwise the defense has been slightly above average. Miss St. has a brutal offense, and before facing a cupcake last week in Southern Miss, the Bulldogs scored just 33 points in 4 SEC games. Overall they have averaged 14.8ppg in 7 SEC contests, and against a high powered offense in Ole Miss, that is not going to get it done. This series is tied 17-17 over the last 34 years. I don't like a double-digit road favorite in a big rivalry match up. I'm more robust on the total, which is currently in the mid-50s. The last 34 meetings these teams have combined to score over 55 total points just 7 times!The last 27 meetings has produced 20 games under the total. Ole Miss is also 18-5 ATS to the under if they allowed 3 or fewer points in first half of their last game. Make the play under the total.

LSU has the best offense in NCAA Football this season by a significant margin. The Tigers are averaging 45.2ppg on the season and should have no trouble reaching or exceeding that number vs a Florida defense that has allowed better than 40ppg in their last 3 contests, and this is the best offense they will see all season. Florida has an above average offense that will put up a lot of points vs an LSU defense that is significantly below average. The LSU schedule shows they have hung up huge numbers to a schedule of teams with above average defenses, so there is no limit on what their offense can do vs Florida. This game also fits a situation that is 136-77 ATS to the over as well. Make the play OVER the total, my NCAAF Total of the year.

Tulane has a few games left, but the 20 wins they have achieved since the start of last season are the most in Tulane football history over a 2 consecutive year period. Last year the Green Wave averaged 36ppg, but the offense is not as good this season, as they average just 28.7ppg. Moreover, the defense is improved from allowing 22.2ppg a year ago to 19.3ppg this season. The Tulsa offense is very bad, and in their 3 games vs the top 3 defenses on their schedule they produced an average of 12.3ppg. I expect they get less than that in this game. Tulane has been 7-1 to the under in its last 8 games and has not exceeded 37 points in any game all season. There is plenty of margin for this game to come up shy of the total, and the play is on the UNDER.

The Akron football program has really struggled, especially over the last 5 years where they are a woeful 7-44 SU. Any chance they had at moving the needle this season ended when QB D.J. Irons went down with an ACL injury.They are left with left with Jeff Undercuffler. This team could run the ball pretty good because of Irons, but now they don't even have a running game, let alone being down to a 2nd string QB. The defense has held its own as the Zips allow just 344 yards per game. Miami, Ohio lost star Jeff Gabbert, and his backup  Aveon Smith has been dreadful. Miami is going to put the ball on the ground, and let their strong defense take the game over. I don't see a lot of points here, and will make the play under the total.

The Washington Commanders turned sellers and traded their bookend defensive ends Chase Young, and Montez Sweat. They also lost safety Darrick Forrest in week 5. This defense is already suspect having allowed 33 or more points 5 times this season already. New England scored 52 points over a 5 week period, but has scored 46 in their last 2. I think Washington lost most of their talent on the defensive end, and I can see significant points here. Rivera's teams have played over to a 30-16 ATS mark on turf, and Washington is 46-28 ATS to the over after scoring 30 or more points their last game. Make the play on the OVER.

East Carolina has one of the worst offenses in all of the FBS. The Pirates have averaged just 13ppg vs FBS teams. UTSA has been a solid under team all season, and both teams have combined for a 10-4 mark to the under on the season. That just supports my best total system that generally wins a lot of games. Make the play under the total.

This game fits a long term situation that has resulted in a 217-143-4 ATS situation, and the play is on the under.

The Chicago Bears are just 1-5 on the season, and about the only good part of that is if the draft was today they would have the first and second picks in the draft. That won't help their offense today. The Bears lost QB Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent will get the start. Chicago has another problem. They are going to want to run more, but Justin Fields was the reason they ran the ball above average, which won't be the case today. The Vegas offense has struggled along with QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Garoppolo has thrown just 7 TD passes with 8 INT's on the season. Las Vegas has averaged just 16ppg in his 5 starts. The Raiders offense is full of check downs and have trouble getting the ball downfield leaving behind a frustrated Davante Adams. This game is supported by a 79-41 ATS. Make the play on the UNDER.

This game fits one of my 2 best total situations that has been off the charts good. It has been 104-33-12 ATS to the under. I play this one blind when it comes up because it is very strong. Make the play UNDER the total.

The New York Giants had a really good season last year, but everything seemed to work out in their favor. The opposite has been true this season. The Giants enter Sunday Night vs. the Bills with an offense that has scored 16 or fewer points in all 4 losses. The Giants have 18 players on the injury report including QB Daniel Jones who has been ruled out. Jones has been the offense for the Giants scrambling for his life. Tyrod Taylor will get the start for New York. The Buffalo offense is going to have to do all the heavy lifting on the scoreboard, but I doubt the motivation will be there in a lopsided game. The Giants have surrendered 30 sacks already which is the most by any team in the NFL through 5 games ever! This game fits a total situation that is 107-62 ATS, and I agree. Make the play under the total.

The Ohio, U. Bobcats lost their opener at San Diego St. 20-13. They have since beaten Iowa St. holding them to 7 points, and has not allowed any team to score more than 17 points in any of their last 5. This game is capping significantly under, and there is also bad weather for this game, and heavy winds and rains are going to limit kicking and the passing game. Both teams are good against the run and neither runs the ball that well. Make the play under the total.

As you can see from my side write up I am high on both offenses match ups in this game as well as a 189-122 ATS total situation. Make the play over the total.

The Texas Longhorns have started 4-0 and they have been good on both sides of the ball. The Longhorns however are averaging just 35ppg, and the defense has been top shelf. Texas is allowing 12.5ppg on the season. overall their games have averaged just 47.5 total points per game. Kansas is also off to a 4-0 start. Kansas has been pretty good defensively allowing 24ppg. Kansas will limit the number of Texas possessions as the Jayhawks run a very slow offense that while they have possession yields 2 plays per minute. Kansas has had 3 games vs FBS opponents and the only game where more than 60 points were scored was their last game, but that game had 2 defensive TDs, so it actually would have been the lowest scoring game of the 3, so I think there is a spike in the total that does not belong. This game also fits a total situation that is 99-48 ATS. Make the play UNDER the total.

This game fits one of my strongest total situations that is 169-91 ATS. Make the play on the UNDER.

This could be a very sleepy game, without a lot of action at least beyond the goal line. Jacksonville St. is a healthy 3-1 to start the season, but in their 3 games vs FBS opponents they have scored 18ppg. Outside of the best offense they have seen in Coastal Carolina, they have held their other 3 opponents to just 5.7ppg. Those numbers may turn out to go down after this game as Sam Houston St. has scored 10 total points in 3 games. They are averaging 148 yards per game of total offense. Both offenses are significantly below average while both defenses are significantly above average. I don't see a lot of ball movement here. Make the play under the total.

This is strictly a turnover play that works against the Bears. The situation is exclusive to the Bears and is a total situation that is 33-2 ATS. Make the play UNDER the total.

The Cincinnati defense has a reputation and while they are allowing fewer than 22ppg, the number show a different story. The defense allows more yards per ply that the average of their schedule of opponents so far. Oklahoma once again has a huge offense that is averaging nearly 56ppg, and they will move the ball effectively against Cincinnati. The offense is above average and they will move the ball vs. Oklahoma as well. This total has dropped 3/3.5 points from the opener and I think the value is building with the mover for a higher scoring games. This game also fits a total situation that is 138-87 ATS. Make the play over the total.

This game fits a situation that is 41-100 ATS but there are double posting in some stances. Overall when a home team is in this situation the total has gone 25-55-5 O/U. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation that is 41-100 ATS but there are double posting in some stances. Overall when a home team is in this situation the total has gone 25-55-5 O/U. Make the play on the under.

In addition to a 5.2 difference I get on this total for line value, this game also fits a total situation which is 109-68 ATS. Make the play under the total.

Oregon St. has opened the season at 2-0 with the scoring margin in the 2 games at 73. This gives bettors a false impression of their level of play as they played a pair of horrible teams. I think there will be a big difference against San Diego St. The Aztecs since the start of the 2015 season has allowed fewer than 20 points per game. That cover 105 games. I don't think we will see big numbers from Oregon St. here. San Diego QB Jalen Mayden has not been the same this season. He is working in a new offense, and his numbers are much worse than a year ago. I think there is a good chance the San Diego St. defense holds down the Beavers as they continue to struggle to score themselves. Make the play under the total.

This game fits a situation that has gone over the total to a record of 126-85 ATS and the play is on the OVER.

This game total fits a situation that has gone 74-41 ATS and the play is on the OVER.

This is mostly predicated on my 2nd strongest totals situation for college football. It is 46-8 ATS to the under. Make the play under the total.

This is mostly predicated on my 2nd strongest totals situation for college football. It is 46-8 ATS to the under. Make the play under the total.

G.J. Kinne will take over the program at Texas St. this season. He favors an uptempo offense but does he have the tools to run it? Transfer quarterbacks Malik Hornsby (Arkansas) and TJ Finley (Auburn), are going to both probably get some time, but neither has a track record of success when they have been on the field, and I don`t see this offense clicking, at least early. Baylor doesn`t have more than an average offense. Baylor has a better running game than a passing attack and I think they put the ball on the ground a lot here, but it will be challenging early with an offensive line that has little experience. I don`t see a lot of explosiveness on either side, and the defenses will both be better than the offenses they are facing. When that is the case and the total is on the high side in a season opener a lower-scoring game is probable. Make the play under the total.

G.J. Kinne will take over the program at Texas St. this season. He favors an uptempo offense but does he have the tools to run it? Transfer quarterbacks Malik Hornsby (Arkansas) and TJ Finley (Auburn), are going to both probably get some time, but neither has a track record of success when they have been on the field, and I don`t see this offense clicking, at least early. Baylor doesn`t have more than an average offense. Baylor has a better running game than a passing attack and I think they put the ball on the ground a lot here, but it will be challenging early with an offensive line that has little experience. I don`t see a lot of explosiveness on either side, and the defenses will both be better than the offenses they are facing. When that is the case and the total is on the high side in a season opener a lower-scoring game is probable. Make the play under the total.

This game fits a total situation that is 114-60-4 ATS and the play is on the over.

NBA games where there is a team that is a 2 or more point dog and is off a win in a game that went under the total are 202-158-4 ATS. When the last game was not a playoff game, but this one is the under is 21-4-1 ATS since April 17 of 2010! Make the play under the total.

NBA games where there is a team that is a 2 or more point dog and is off a win in a game that went under the total are 202-158-4 ATS. When the last game was not a playoff game, but this one is the under is 21-4-1 ATS since April 17 of 2010! Make the play under the total.

This game fits a situation that is 114-77 ATS and the play is under the total

This gam fits a situation that is 166-97 ATS to the under. Make the play under the total.

Cincinnati heads to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. The weather is not going to be ideal for passing downfield. The temperature will be in the low 20s to start the game and down to 15-18 by the end of the game, and the windchill will be hovering around 0, with wind gusts in the 20s. The big question will be the mobility of Patrick Mahomes as he deals with a high ankle sprain sustained last week. That is the type of injury that takes more than a week to heal, so I will assume Mahomes is less than 100%. The Bengals offensive line is in shambles but did hold up against Buffalo, and I think Kansas City is going to try and test it with pressure. This has the look of more running than one would think and the Chiefs have run for 138 yards or more in each of the last 3 vs Kansas City, and with a less than healthy Mahomes, they may run even more. Almost all bets I see from questionable handicappers are on the over. I am in the other camp and will make the play on the under.

The San Francisco 49ers will head to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles. It should be ideal weather conditions with a high of 51 degrees and light winds, and just a slight chance for a shower or two. San Francisco QB Brock Purdy has played just a couple games on the road, and both opponents were rather weak. He will be facing the best defense he has in his brief career, one that has sacked the QB 70 times on the season. Jalen Hurts is going to be facing a tough defense in San Francisco, and both defenses will have the advantage when they are on the field. I think this is going to be a game of field position, and TD's are going to hard to come by. This game also fits a total situation that is 38-16 ATS. I will make the play under the total.

The scoring in the NBA has sky rocketed. The issue has been at the top of this increased line pressure by the books that have now priced games way too high. When an NBA team is at home to a posted total of 235 or higher the under has been 50-29-1 ATS this year. Make the play under the total.

The San Antonio Spurs have played to a higher percentage of games that have topped the total in the NBA this season. They are currently 29-19-1 ATS to the over this season. They have increased the pace over their last 24 games where they are 19-5 ATS to the over. (19-3 ATS if they have been posted at +2 or higher). Make the play over the total.