This game fits a total situation that is 52-13 ATS and the play is on the over.

The Oregon Ducks opened the season ranked as the #11 team in the country. They had a severe test vs Georgia and failed miserably. They managed just 3 points against a strong Georgia defense and now they face another strong defense in Washington St. Washington St. is allowing 12.7ppg and held a really good Wisconsin team to 14 points. This game also fits a situation that is 117-58 ATS. Make the play on Washington St

I don't thinks anyone saw this coming. Duke heads to Kansas who is also 3-0. The winner of this game is going to be getting attention at 4-0. Kansas has beaten Houston and West Virginia on the road in consecutive weeks as a double-digit dog in both. There is some regression value here playing against Kansas. Kansas is converting nearly 70% of 3rd downs, and they are averaging a near perfect 6.3ppg in red zone possessions. Those numbers are unsustainable. Kansas also won by 31 total points vs Houston and West Virginia, but the Jayhawks were out-gained 947-860. The defense is as awful as the offense is good, and the offense right now is very good, but also a product of everything going perfect. The Duke offense is legit. They have generated 1,381 yards of offense themselves. Duke can match the Kansas offense, and the defense is better. I would not be surprised if Duke wins this game outright, so I will certainly take the points and make the play on Duke.

Matt Campbell has changed the culture at Iowa St. He has recruited very well and the team depth has changed dramatically since he took over as well as the quality of talent. He lost 4 year starting QB Brock Purdy, the best RB in school history, returned just 5 on offense and 3 on defense and he is 3-0. Baylor has a 2-1 record and the 2 wins are vs horrible teams where they were favored by an average of 36 points per game. Iowa St already has a signature win over Iowa on the road. They held the Hawkeyes to 150 total yards and 7 points. The aggressive defense has forced at least 2 turnovers in every game and averages 2.7 a contest. I like Iowa St.

Penn St. knew they were getting a good running back when they signed Nicholas Singleton. The freshman has been even better than expected running for 11.1ypc through 3 games. He ran for 12.4ypvc vs Auburn. Would not be surprised to see him break a couple of big ones vs Central Michigan. Penn St. may even be a better passing team than running team. The team is averaging over 100 yards better than the defenses they have faced allow on average. The defense is on the same level, so this is a much better Penn St. team than most think. The Central Michigan defense has given up huge yardage and points vs their 2 FBS opponents as both Oklahoma St. and S. Alabama went for over 500 yards against them. This game is a major blowout. Make the play on Penn St.

My ultimate total situation in NCAAF I bet blindly, because it is that strong. It is 580-318-19 ATS in all games, but even stronger when there is not an FCS team involved. It moves to 506-241-2 ATS! Make the play on the UNDER.

It has been a mixed bag so far for San Diego St. and Utah. They will each take the field at 1-1 so this becomes a crucial game for both teams. San Diego St. has won 10 or more games in 5 of the last 7 years. This has been a defense first team since the start of the 2014 season as the Aztecs are 63-37-3 ATS to the under in their last 113 games.They have allowed fewer than 20ppg over the period. They have faced 12 Pac-12 opponents holding them to a combined 25ppg. Based on the fact that Utah is a 3 TD favorite the under has my interest here. San Diego St. has been a double-digit dog 3 times vs Pac-12 teams and all the games went under the total. They are also in a great historic spot for a low scoring game, as several situations point that way including a 32-3-6 ATS situation on the under.Make the play on the under in this one.

UL Lafayette has opened the season at 2-0. They have faced some soft competition thus far. One thing they have done is not turn the ball over. The Ragin Cajuns own a 5-0 turnover advantage in their first 2 games. Rice was destroyed as expected by USC and then destroyed McNeese St. as expected. That doesn't offer much in the way this game will be played. History has a lot more to say as multiple situations favor a low scoring game led by a 32-3-6 ATS situation playing on the under. Make the play on the under.

This should be a good test for both teams, as both SMU and Maryland are 2-0 but neither has been tested thus far. I was on Maryland in game 1, and I have them listed as a surprise team that over-performs. This is a better team than SMU and the Terps are at home. They are also backed by a situation that is 189-127 ATS. Make the play on Maryland.

There are not a lot of NCAAF totals that get posted at 40 or fewer points. This game is one of them, and rightfully so, and I think it is still significantly high. Iowa has an offense that is significantly below average, while New Mexico has defended quite well. Iowa has a defense that could very well shutout the Lobos, while the Iowa offense is extremely bad. I could easily see the total points here coming in the high 20s, to low 30s. There is historical support as well as this game fits an under situation that is 77-48 ATS. Make the play on the under.

Georgia Southern has run the triple option for many years, but coach Clay Helton has changed that. The Eagles have completely changed the offense from the slow methodical and almost exclusive running game, to a wide open spread the field fast paced passing attack. They are snapping the ball over 80 times a game and has averaged 51 passing attempts per contest. They used that offense to spring a huge upset at Nebraska 45-42. The Eagles put up 666 total yards vs the P5 Nebraska team. UAB is a solid defensive team, but Georgia Southern is going to score some points here as a double-digit dog, and UAB will be moving the ball against a very pedestrian defense. I don't think the public or the odds makers have caught up to this extreme change yet. Make the play on the over.

Tulane and Kansas St. come into this game at 2-0, so the winner will emerge 3-0 and feeling pretty good. Both these teams have faced offenses that are not very challenging, and through 2 games each, in total 4 games they have combined to allow just 22 total points. Both offenses are led by the run as they have combined for 171 runs vs just 92 passes. I think the clock will be moving as each tries to take control with the running game. This game fits a lot of situations that are strong indicators of a low scoring game, one of which is 32-3-6 ATS to the under. I favor a low scoring game here and will make the play on the under.

I was waiting to see who would be named the starter for Temple. It has been decided that EJ Warner will start (Kurt Warner's son). He earned it last week with a good performance. Rutgers is not nearly good enough to be favored by this many points on the road. This is going to be a low scoring game, and the points are just not reflecting the QB change. Make the play on Temple.

This game fits a huge 101-44 ATS situation. Make the play on Indiana.

This game fits a situation that is 50-12-1 ATS to the over. Make the play over the total.

This game will be avoided by most bettors. When you have lines this high no one really wants to get involved. I never look at games that way. I look at opportunities in the marketplace that show historic value and that is the case here. When a team plays to a line of -51.5 or higher they are 38-54-1 ATS. When you eliminate FCS vs FBS games that becomes 1-7 ATS the last 29 games. Yes, these games are pretty rare but the results are strongly in favor of the gigantic dog. I will make the play on Hawaii.

This has been a strong situation for 8 years running. It looks like this. Play on a team off a home loss by 3 points or fewer in September games. These teams come roaring back and are 80-37-2 ATS. Make the play on Boston College

This has been a strong situation for 8 years running. It looks like this. Play on a team off a home loss by 3 points or fewer in September games. These teams come roaring back and are 80-37-2 ATS. Make the play on East Carolina.

A game with a line of -30 or more points and a total of fewer than 50 points have played 82-38-1 ATS to the over. Make the play on the over.

This has been a strong situation for 8 years running. It looks like this. Play on a team off a home loss by 3 points or fewer in September games. These teams come roaring back and are 80-37-2 ATS. Make the play on Appalachian St.

This has been a strong situation for 8 years running. It looks like this. Play on a team off a home loss by 3 points or fewer in September games. These teams come roaring back and are 80-37-2 ATS. Make the play on Texas San Antonio.

This has been a strong situation for 8 years running. It looks like this. Play on a team off a home loss by 3 points or fewer in September games. These teams come roaring back and are 80-37-2 ATS. Make the play on Southern Miss.

The Ohio St. Buckeyes will enter the 2022 season with by far the best offense in the country. Notre Dame has a lot returning fro a highly ranked stop unit a year ago, but there is some concerns as to what that actually means. Notre Dame played a lot of games last season vs a team with an injured or below average QB. How does that translate when they face a highly probable Heisman Trophy candidate with lots of speed and weapons all over the field? The Ohio St. offense averaged 45.7ppg a year ago, and that number should increase this season. Ohio St. had a down defensive season 2 years ago, became significantly better than average last year, and should be even better this year as they return 8 starters. I see a huge advantage in this game for Ohio St. playing at home and better on both sides of the ball. Make the play on Ohio St.

I have a lot of betting systems, or what I prefer to call situations. I use most of them to guide me to look at specific qualifying games. There are a chosen few that I use because the system is long-term and has ridiculously strong results. This game qualifies as one such game. This particular situation is 80-37-2 ATS to the OVER, and if it is prior to week 9 of the season it is a ridiculous 70-25-2 ATS to the OVER. Make the play on the OVER.

I have a lot of betting systems, or what I prefer to call situations. I use most of them to guide me to look at specific qualifying games. There are a chosen few that I use because the system is long-term and has ridiculously strong results. This game qualifies as one such game. This particular situation is 80-37-2 ATS to the OVER, and if it is prior to week 9 of the season it is a ridiculous 70-25-2 ATS to the OVER. Make the play on the OVER.

I have a lot of betting systems, or what I prefer to call situations. I use most of them to guide me to look at specific qualifying games. There are a chosen few that I use because the system is long-term and has ridiculously strong results. This game qualifies as one such game. This particular situation is 80-37-2 ATS to the OVER, and if it is prior to week 9 of the season it is a ridiculous 70-25-2 ATS to the OVER. Make the play on the OVER.

Mike Locksley took over the Maryland program back in 2019, and last year the Terps had their first winning record at 7-6. His team has not had a lot of opportunities vs subpar teams, but when he has faced them he has shown no mercy in running the score up. His team has been a double-digit favorite just 4 times and he has beaten those 4 opponents by a combined score of 56.5-5.8, or by over 50 points per game. Maryland has a lot of weapons on offense, including an underrated and experienced QB in Taulia Tagovailoa. Buffalo was terrible offensively last year and with 1 starter back in the offensive line, things could get worse. Make the play on Maryland.

Oklahoma St. will begin a new era as they open their 2022 season vs Central Michigan. Spencer Sanders is an improving duel threat QB, but his offensive line took a hit, as did the running back situation. It won't be as easy this year. The one thing that happened last year is the rebranding of the Oklahoma St. philosophy. They won games on defense. The receivers are young and talented, but I think the offense will be better as the season goes on. The Oklahoma St. defense is going to be strong up front, but has some question marks in the secondary. Central Michigan QB Daniel Richardson lost his top 2 receivers from a year ago. Lew Nichols will be asked to carry the load as he had 2,186 total yards (1,848 on the ground) and 18 TDs a year ago. I think he will get a heavy load but the Cowboy's excel up front. I think the clock will be moving quickly here, and I like the under.

CFP Championship Game - Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, IN

It is not surprising to see Alabama and Georgia in the Championship game. They have been the best teams all season so it all comes done to one game to win it all. Georgia was nearly a 7 point favorite in the SEC Championship Game. That was based on the full body of work of both these teams. Suddenly the line is Georgia by 2.5. That means the full body of work has been replaced by recency bias and a 41-24 Alabama win in the SEC Title game. I'm not sure any game is worth 4 points on the line, especially when you look at the aftermath. Alabama beat Cincinnati soundly 27-6. Cincinnati was just too small up front and the Alabama running game ate them alive. Brian Robinson went for 204 yards. He went nowhere vs Georgia as he generated 55 yards on 16 attempts. Alabama lost John Mechie in the Georgia game. Metchie had 6 catches for 97 yards and a TD before departing with an ACL injury. Alabama has secondary issues. Josh Jobe is out, and Jalyn Armar-Davis left the Cincinnati game with a hip injury. The Alabama offensive line saw Emil Elkiyor leave the Cincinnati game with a shoulder injury, and his back up is a freshman. Chris Owens left with a leg injury, and Darian Dalcourt is banged up as well. Alabama played its best game of the season in the first meeting, and Georgia their worst. Alabama needed the game more, and played like it. The entire 1st meeting came down to Alabama scored 24 points in the 2nd quarter. Think about the fact that Georgia allowed 17 or fewer points in every other game this season. Alabama didn't sustain drives as 28 points came on 3 drives totaling 14 plays, and a pick-6. Mechie and Williams combined for 281 yards and 3 TDs, and Mechie left the game. They will focus on Williams, and expect a lot of pressure on Young. George Pickens will be as healthy as he has been all season for Georgia, and he could be a huge factor. Alabama has had pass protection issues at times this season, and with a banged up offensive line, and a Georgia defense that is going to seek revenge, it will be different this time. The longest running play by either team in the first meeting was 15 yards. The memory of game 1 makes Georgia a tough sell. Everything went wrong in that game, and after watching Georgia manhandle Michigan, that more closely resembles this team than the debacle vs Alabama. Make the play on Georgia.

The final bowl game of the season prior to the National Championship game takes place tonight as LSU (6-6) takes on Kansas St. (7-5). LSU has ended the short-lived Ed Orgeron era. Following a perfect 15-0 National Championship season, the Bayou Bengals have been just 11-11. What this team looked like at the beginning of the season is completely different than the team that will be on the field tonight. Injuries, opt-outs, transfers, and academic causulties has devastated this roster that now has just 40 or so scholarship players. Kansas St. is heading the other way as QB Skylar Thompson will start his 4oth game for Kansas St. The offense is much better when he plays, and the defense is solid. Kansas St. lost their final 2 games without Thompson despite allowing 20 and 22 points. Without Thompson the Wildcats were 5-22 on 3rd down and 1-4 on 4th down. Brad Davis will be the interim coach for LSU tonight, and the coaching advantage is in favor of Kansas St. The more motivated team is Kansas St. I think the Wildcats control this game start to finish on both sides of the ball. Make the play on Kansas St.

Baylor at 11-2 may be one of the most under-appreciated teams in the country. Right there with them is Ole Miss. One huge step toward winning this game is that The Ole Miss elite QB, Matt Corral is playing. I think he has truly been one of the most important players on any team this season. Ole Miss has been showing up big for bowl games as the Rebel's are 8-1 ATS in their last 9. This game fits the coaches experience advantage over their opposing coach, and for Baylor Coach Aranda this will be his first ever bowl. Ole Miss had 3 WR's banged up in some crucial games, but are finally healthy and that means a strong offense should be stronger. The QB edge is huge here and that is the most important player on the field. Make the play on Ole Miss.

It is going to be hard for Ohio St. to bring their "A" game despite the fact that this is the Rose Bowl. The Buckeyes lost to Oregon at home, and fell to Michigan in their season finale for the first time in years. A trip to the playoffs were lost in those 2 games. The defense is not up to the level this team has achieved in prior years as 4 opponents went for 30+ against Ohio St., while the elite offense was limited by the better defenses they faced. The offense will be without 2 of their top 3 WR in Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. The pair combined for 25 of the 40 Ohio St. passing TD (62.5%), as well as 2,000 receiving yards of the 4300 generated by the Ohio St. passing game. They have also lost their leader in sacks in Haskell Garrett, and they will be missing their top offensive tackle. Utah opened the season losing twice in its first 3 games to BYU and San Diego St. They also blew a 10 point lead to Oregon st. That loss seemed to bring this team together as they went on to finish 6-0 beating Oregon twice, as well as UCLA. They averaged 40ppg in the 5 contests allowing just 16 and vs Oregon twice and UCLA won by a combined score of 120-41. Uth has a very strong bowl history as they are 15-6 SU and 14-7 ATS. That includes 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS as a dog. Make the play on Utah.

Notre Dame comes into this game having won their last 4 games by a combined score of 162-23. That is about as good as it gets. The problem is the competition was awful other than Virginia but the Cavs were without their dynamic QB in that game. The role will be reversed as they take on Oklahoma St. who missed qualifying for the playoffs by inches. This time it is Notre Dame missing some key pieces, including coach Kelly who took the job at LSU. Moreover, the Irish will be without star RB Kyren Williams, as well as their top defender in DB Kyle Hamilton. The Irish have severely under-achieved in Neww Year's 6 or BCS Bowls. They are 0-7 SU and 0-7 ATS. Oklahoma St. lost to Baylor 21-16 without RB Warren, but the defense has been ultra elite. They allow just 278 yards per game and 16.8ppg. They rank #3 in the country holding opposing offenses to 146 yards per game below their season average. Additionally they have recorded a nation's best 53 sacks including 32 in their last 5 games. I like Oklahoma St. in this one.

It would be easy to look at Iowa at 10-3 and Kentucky at 9-3 and figure Kentucky played in the SEC so they must have had a much tougher schedule. That would be a problem because Iowa played one of the toughest schedules in the country. Looking at the Kentucky 9 wins I just don't see anything impressive, and the strength of schedule Iowa faced is considerably stronger. Kentucky relies heavily on a potent ground game, but Iowa has allowed 3.2 yards per carry on the season, and this defense is going to be fresh coming into this contest. The Iowa offense does not scare anyone, as the Hawkeyes have had trouble moving the ball most of the season. Iowa is very good at turning their opponent over. Kentucky struggled to move the ball themselves vs better teams. It comes down to turnovers and the battle in the trenches and I see Iowa having the edge in both. Bowl coaching situation adds to the mix. Make the play on Iowa.

This game is purely situational. It fits a total situation that is 33-7 ATS in bowl games. Make the play on the under.

The last time Georgia took the field they were manhandled by the Alabama passing attack. Young is an elite QB with a lot of weapons and that may be the only team in America that could beat the Georgia defense. I think Georgia is aching for another shot at Alabama, and are going to be a handful in this game. Remember Georgia gave up 83 points all season, and I think you are going to see Michigan get completely shutdown in this one. The Wolverines finally got over the hurdle of beating Ohio St. The question is if the moment is bigger than this team, and if they can solve the elite Georgia defense. Don't expect anything close to what happened in the Alabama game. Michigan is very vulnerable to the defensive personnel of Georgia, and they will be in the Michigan backfield all game, and I really think this one could get ugly. The Bulldogs are deep on both sides of the ball and I think they run ll over Michigan, especially in the 2nd hlf when the punishing ground game takes over. Make the play on Georgia.

The Alabama Crimson Tide have been a college football playoff fixture throughout the tenure of Nick Saban. They will take on an unbeaten Cincinnati team that may just have the secondary to cover some of the outside weapons that Alabama possesses. One of those weapons will be missing from this game as John Mechie went down with a torn ACL. The Tide has not been without close calls this season. They have played 4 games where they did not win by more than 7 points, the most since 2014. The last 4 times in the Saban era the Tide played 3 or more games where they did not win by more than 7 points have not turned out as well as when they didn`t. The 4 years it occurred they were out-scored by their opponent in the playoffs by 3 points per game. Cincinnati has the back side of the defense that could certainly give the elite Alabama passing game enough trouble to make this a tight contest. Cincinnati went to Notre Dame and built a 17-0 halftime lead on their way to a 24-13 win. No team on their schedule topped 28 points and just 2 scored more than 21. Alabama is off their best game of the season as they manhandled Georgia. I don`t expect a duplicate here. Make the play on Cincinnati.

This game is based on a very strong 45-11 ATS Bowl total situation. The play is on the over.

Unlike Rutgers, Central Michigan was practicing and planning to play against Boise St. That game was canceled and C. Michigan volunteered to play Washington St. in the Sun Bowl. I think the match up here is going to favor a lot of scoring. I`m surprised this game is still sitting in the 50s. I see this game approaching 70. The Washington St. offense took off late in the season as the Cougars averages 35.5ppg in their last 4 games, and just 24.4ppg prior to that. Central Michigan has done the same. The Chip`s last 4 games saw them average 41ppg! I think the opportunity lies here for C. Michigan to hang tight, win outright, or get a backdoor cover. Make the play on Central Michigan.

Wake Forest had a record setting year, and while this appears like it could be a letdown game, it is just the opposite. Wake Forest is glad to be able to get rewarded to a Bowl game that appeared as if it was not going to happen. The weakness for Wake Forest has been the defense. A closer look certain tells the story of what to expect here. I think most won't pick up on this. Wake allowed 34 points or more in 7 of its games, but those were against mostly potent or at least average to above averages opposing offenses. When they faced mediocre offensive teams (Old Dominion, Florida St., Duke, BC, Norfolk St., and even a good offense in Virginia, none of the 6 teams scored more than 17 points against them. Enter Rutgers. Rutgers didn't practice for 3 weeks. They also had 5 players sign with agents that will not be eligible for this game. Rutgers opened the season at 3-0, and then the competition went up. They were 2-7 from that point on. Against their 6 strongest opponents they combined to get out-scored 223-58! That is an average score of 9.7-39 or just about an average loss of 30ppg. Now they play without a full compliment of players that didn't practice for 3 weeks, and have just a few days of practice against an elite offense, and I don't see them staying within 3 TD. Make the play on Wake Forest.

Both these teams finished the regular season at 8-4. Their 8-4 record is not as good as their stats. They out-gained their opponents by 141 yards per game on the season, and the defense is ultra elite allowing a stingy 4.2 yards per play. Arizona St. will not be able to run the ball here as the Badgers allow just 2.2 yards per carry on the season, and they are also 1 yard better defending the pass than their schedule of opponents generated. Arizona St. lost their top 2 running backs as they opted out as well as a pair of players in their secondary. Wisconsin also fits the bowl coaching experience situation that has been money in bowls for a long time including this year. Make the play on Wisconsin.

It was a disappointing year for North Carolina with their 6-6 finish. QB Sam Howell came back and the Heels thought they would be a top 10 team, but it didn't pan out. The good news Sam Howell is playing in the bowl game. South Carolina also finished 6-6. The heels as a 6-6 team had a 1 yard advantage over SC from the line of scrimmage per play. SC is also losing their top RB and top defensive player for this game. The SEC has yet to win a bowl game as of 12/28 (0-4). North Carolina has a huge advantage in the running game as they are elite, and SC is awful. This game also fits the bowl coach experience advantage. Mack Brown is +22 the biggest differential of any bowl. These coaches are 134-92-1 ATS including 12-5 ATS this year through 12/28. Make the play on North Carolina.

For a Bowl game on December 29th this has all the makings of a New Yea's Day type bowl. Both these teams were on the cusp of the playoffs. Getting to the game, both teams have a few opt outs, and I consider a slight edge to Oklahoma on the advantage that has created. Both coaches have moved on so Oregon will be led by Bryan McClendon, and Oklahoma by Bob Stoops. I give the coaching edge to Stoops. I also think the QB match up favors Oklahoma. I would take Williams over Brown every time. Oregon started the season challenged by Fresno St. and went to Ohio St. and pulled the shocking upset. It looked at the time like Oregon was an elite team with a strong chance at a playoff spot. They were 4-0 and suffered their own shocking loss to Stanford 31-24 in OT. They played arguably the best Pac-12 team late in the season in Utah twice, and lost by a combined score of 76-17, and that was it for the Ducks. I like the match up here in favor of the Sooners. Make the play on Oklahoma.

Iowa St. began the season ranked in the top 10. This was supposed to be the year Iowa St. broke through, with a legitimate chance to win the Big-12, and qualify for the playoffs. Right from the very start trouble showed itself. The Cyclones barely got by FCS Northern Iowa 16-10, an proceeded to lose to Iowa 27-17. The net result was a highly disappointing 7-5 finish. Now the Cyclones lose Breece Hall who has opted out, and he was the main cog in the offense as the Cyclones running game was potent. QB Brock Purdy, a 4 year starter did not have the tear most expected as the Cyclone's passing game was just a tick above average generating 7.9 yards per attempt, to a schedule of teams that combined to allow 7.6. Clemson started the season slowly on offense. Through 7 games they averaged just 15.2ppg and stood at 4-3. The offense grew from that point on and Clemson averaged 36.3ppg in finishing the season 5-0. The defense remains strong as no team scored more than 27 points on them all season. I like Clemson in this one.

This game will be played in New York City. The weather looks to be fine with some showers in the morning, and in the 40s. Virginia Tech is one of those teams with significant opt outs. As it looks right now QB Braxton Burmeister, WR Tre Turner, DT Jordan Williams, DE Amari Barno, CB Jermaine Waller, and OG Lecitus Smith have all opted out. That will make for a tough game for the Hokies as they barely qualified for a bowl at full strength at 6-6. Speaking of barely qualified the Hokies did not have a win all season vs a team with a winning record. Maryland got pounded by the elite teams on their schedule. They lost to Iowa, Ohio St., Minnesota, Michigan, Michigan St., and Penn St. They beat everyone on their level, and with all the players out for Virginia Tech, the Hokies are simply not on their level entering this game. Make the play on Maryland.

West Virginia struggled this season when the offense had the ball. It is going to get a lot more difficult in this games vs the #4 rated Minnesota defense. Making that even more difficult is their best offensive player Leddie Brown has opted out and won't play. Minnesota has really had injury issues at running back. Mohamed Ibrahim was lost in game 1. Tyson Potts was lost in the Purdue game. Bryce Williams went down. Cam Wiley entered the portal, Despite all that Ky Thomas, and Mar'Keise Irving have down exceptionally well. The pair has generated 1,250 rushing yards on just 259 attempts. Tanner Morgan has not had a good year, but the continued success of the ground game has him throwing for 8.2 yards per attempt. West Virginia has lost the heart of their running attack and Minnesota has the #15 rated pass defense in the country. They have held their last 6 opponents to 250 total yards on average, and held all opposing offenses to 96 yards below their season average, ranking #5. I see a lot of advantages here for the Gophers, make the play on Minnesota.

This is a very interesting game. I don't think Mike Leech has ever accepted being booted out at Texas Tech. It was probably a bad move on the part of the school. Since Leach left the Red Raiders have not completed any of their last 12 seasons above .500 in the Big-12 Conference games. Bowl games are about motivation, and I think this game is a priority for Miss St. and the players are going to hear about it every day. Miss St. played a very strong schedule that included 6 ranked teams and finished 3-3. They lost to Arkansas in the last :22 seconds after missing 3 FG in the game, and in losses to Memphis and LSU they combined to out-gain those teams by 366 total yards. The Bulldogs defense despite the elite schedule of opponents held opposing offenses to 75 yards per game fewer than the offensive averages they faced, top 10 in the country. They had a yardage edge in 4 of their 5 losses. Texas Tech barely got here tat 6-6 and almost lost to SF Austin. Mike Leach loves to throw the ball and Texas Tech ranked #117 against the pass this season which is the worst of any bowl team. Texas Tech is down to its 3rd string QB who started the last 3 games in D. Smith, and he will be under duress the entire game. Revenge is a huge factor here as well. Make the play on Miss St.

The Louisville Cardinals barely made it to a Bowl game at 6-6. This despite the efforts of do everything QB Malik Cunningham. Cunningham ran for 968 yards and threw for 2,733, and combined for 37 TD. It wasn't enough as Louisville was just 2-6 SU when playing against a Bowl bound team this season. Air Force is the #1 rushing team in the nation, and after watching Louisville get gauged for 362 yards at 6 yards per attempt, and allowing 52 points as a favorite vs Kentucky, they could be in trouble here. The Cards have not faced the option all season. The Mountain West is already 4-0 in Bowl games on the season. A team that finished in the top 10 in rushing yards per game has gone 51-30 ATS in their last 81 Bowls. Many top situations ride with the Falcons in this one. Make the play on Air Force.

Auburn will get the semi-home field edge here playing in Birmingham. Will it be enough? The Tigers lost Bo Nix, and finished with 4 straight losses and averaged just 19ppg in the 4 games. TJ Finley has taken over but his status is in question as he is dealing with an ankle injury. Moreover, sever key players have opted out of this game for Auburn, and the circumstances here do not look like a team poised to deliver their best effort. Houston book-ended an opening game loss and an AAC Championship loss with 11 straight wins. The Cougars played Cincinnati tough losing the yardage battle by just 64 yards, and had a 1 turnover disadvantage. Auburn finished just 36 yards better than their opponents from the line of scrimmage, while Houston held a 117 yard edge, but Auburn faced a much more difficult schedule. The main concern here is I don't think Auburn envisioned playing on December 28th vs an AAC team. With the poor finish, a backup QB, and several key opt outs, is this a spot of the "A" game? I don't think so. Houston should be very motivated to go against a name SEC school and get their 12th win of the season. I like their chances here. Make the play on Houston.

Nevada had great expectations for this season. They have a prolific QB and all the pieces for a great season. They finished 8-4 which wasn't as good as expected. They now have lost their coach for the Bowl game, and their do-everything QB Carson Strong. This team is missing their top 5 wide receivers and tight ends, and missing pieces in the offensive line. The starter will be Nate Cox, who threw 20 passes this year 15 of which came against New Mexico St,and Idaho St. They can't run the ball at all and 83.2% of their yards this season have come in the air. W. Michigan lost 5 games, one was to Michigan, and in the other 4 losses they had 11 turnovers to their opponents 0. They also beat a ranked Pittsburgh team. They average 8 yards per pass attempt, but they can also run as they averaged 203 yards per game. I think this is a huge disappointment bowl for Fresno St., while Western Michigan will be glad to be here. Make the play on Western Michigan.

Georgia St finished with 3 straight wins to qualify for a Bowl game. They played a very difficult schedule with 5 of their losses coming to Army, NC, Auburn, App. St., and LA Lafayette. They had a huge win as well vs Coastal Carolina. The Panthers beat the mid-level teams on its schedule with a bruising ground game and finished in the top 10 in the country in rushing yards per game. A team finishing in the top 10 in rushing yards per game has gone 50-30 ATS in their last 80 Bowl games. Ball St. has a brutal offense and on the season they were out-gained by 80 yards per game. Make the play on Georgia St.

The situation in Florida is pretty messy. The Gators will have a new coach next year, and a lot of players have opted out of the Bowl game vs Central Florida. They finished 6-6 and I see a lot of action in favor of UCF. Florida played a much tougher schedule and consider this. They out-gained Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Florida St., and Kentucky. They seemed to be the type of team that was good vs elite teams, and a no-show vs scrub teams. UCF is not anywhere close to the team they have been over the past several years. Florida out-gained a rugged schedule of teams by 109 yards per game. Central Florida by just 31. UCF plays at a speedy tempo, but because the offense and QB are mediocre, they have run 7 fewer plays than their opponents this season, instead of dominating with a  fast tempo it hurts them. They are also the 2nd worst team in ball security in the country. I think the Gators win easily here. Make the play on Florida.

The story line out of North Texas is pretty amazing. The Mean Green went 0-6 against FBS teams to start the season. They were out-scored 231-117 in the 6 games. Then this team suddenly started to get it, and there was a game to game improvement. The Mean Green went on to finish the season at 5-0 out-scoring opponents 182-85! That was a 65 point improvement on offense, and a 146 point improvement on defense. It may be the largest team transition in a current season ever. This team is playing close to home and should have a crowd advantage here, and there is no doubt this team will come in confident, and ready to play. They knocked of unbeaten at the time UTSA 45-23 in their last game of the season. Miami, Ohio is 6-6 but to their credit, they lost some tough games. This team is now in the favorite role, and has shown the lack of ability to close out games, which makes them a tough sell. North Texas is about 30 minutes from home, and this will turn out to be a home game, for a very motivated team. The MAC has fared extremely poorly in Bowl games as their record over the last 5 Bowl seasons is a woeful 5-23 SU, including 0-4 this year. Make the play on North Texas.

Wednesday December 22nd, 2021

It was a huge year for UT San Antonio finishing at 12-1. You have to sit back and think of what that 12-1 record would have been in the Mountain West Conference where San Diego St. finished 11-2. Conference USA saw bowl teams go 0-7 SU last year and the conference is just 8-14-1 ATS in its last 23 bowl games. San Diego St. is all about defense as the Aztecs own the 14th best defense in the country. San Diego St. got blown out in the MWC Championship game, but they were missing several players due to covid-19. The only other loss was vs Fresno St. by 10 where they turned the ball over 3 times and Fresno St. did not have a turnover. UTSA seemed to wear down as the season progressed and were out-scored in their last 3 games, despite being +3 in turnovers. San Diego St. owns the bowl coaching experience edge here, which has been highly predictive over the years. Make the play on San Diego St.

Wyoming struggled with consistency all season. They took a 14-3 loss to New Mexico which was the only game the Lobos covered all season, and less than a month later beat Mountain West Conference Champion Uth St. 47-17. The Cowboys gained well over 600 yards in the win. When this team is at its best they are far and away the better team, and I would think playing in a Bowl game we should see that side of this team here. Kent St. relies on their offense to win games, as the Golden Flashes have allowed 41 or more points in 4 of its last 5 games. Wyoming also owns the bowl coach experience situation here as that has proven worthy over the years and is now 126-89-1 ATS (4-2 ATS this bowl season). There is also the fact that Wyoming played here already this season, and are used to the high altitude which could prove to impact Kent St. a lot more. Make the play on Wyoming.

Right now I am staying about 15 minutes from the Myrtle Beach Bowl. It was 35 degrees this morning, and the high is projected to be in the upper 40s. It was 78 here 2 days ago. The key factor will be the wind blowing steady ar 16 MPH and gusting to 25. This is going to turn into more of a clock chewing running game, and the kicking game will be impacted as well. I'm going under the total.

LA Lafayette has had a great run this season at 12-1, and look to close out the season with 13 wins, and have a quasi-home game to do it in. The Ragin Cajuns have been led by a defense that allows just 18.3ppg and in 2 big games vs Liberty and Appalachian St. they allowed 14, and 16 respectively. The defense has grown as the season has moved forward and LA Lafayette has allowed 16ppg over their last 6. Marshall was no match for the powerful offense of W. Kentucky but has otherwise held up very well allowing 15.5ppg in their 4 previous to W. Kentucky. Marshall was slowed by the better teams on its schedule having gone just 2-5 on the season, and a dead heat in total yards. LA Lafayette was 10-3 to the under this season, and I have an 85-44 ATS under situation for this game that is also 22-9 ATS in Bowl games, to the under. Make the play on the under.

What a remarkable turnaround for Utah St. They finished 1-5 a year ago with all 5 losses by 19 or more points. This year they enter their Bowl Game at 10-3, and this will be a motivated group. They closed out by winning the MWC Championship game, and a team winning their Conference Championship has gone 78-53-5 ATS in their Bowl game. Oregon St. has been all over the place this season. They were good enough to beat Utah, and bad enough to lose to Colorado. The Aggies on the other hand over its last 6 games went 3-0 ATS as a dog winning them all out-right by a combined total of 66 points! Experience matters in Bowl games, and head coaches with an experience advantage in terms of how many Bowl games he has coached vs the opposing coach matters. Those with more bowl games coached are 122-87-1 ATS, and Utah St. holds a +6 in this one. Make the play on Utah St.

Liberty struggled down the stretch after starting the season 7-2. The Flames lost their last 3 games and the issues were ball control as the Flames in their final 3 games lost the turnover battle 11-0! Eastern Michigan wasn't much better as the Eagles posted a 1-2 record in their final 3 contests, with the win coming by 1 point. Eastern Michigan was out-gained by 49 yards per game on the season and Liberty out-gained a better schedule of opponents by 113 yards, and have an elite dual threat QB in Malik Willis. Eastern Michigan was a longtime doormat but under Chris Creighton they have gone to 3 Bowls and while they are 0-3 SU they are 3-0 ATS and lost the 3 games by a combined 10 points. Motivation is key in Bowl games, and I think Liberty with Willis and a host of others returning had bigger bowls in mind, and EMU is not going to be an inspiring opponents for them. Willis did not have nearly the year he had last year as his numbers are down everywhere. One big issue for this Liberty team has been the offensive line which gave up 51 sacks on the season. Eastern Michigan always looks like they are on the bad side of a mismatch, but Chris Creighton is the master of getting more out of less. Consider he is 30-9-1 ATS as a dog at EMU. He is also 14-0 ATS as a rod dog coming off a loss! Make the play on Eastern Michigan.

I'm going to start this one out with somewhat of a trick question. Who was the best team in the Pac-12 this season? It was BYU. The Cougars finished 5-0 against Pac-12 teams this season, and also played Virginia, Baylor, Boise St., and Utah St. That is one tough schedule with a team that finished 10-2 and #12 in the Bowl Championship Series rankings. Despite all that bettors are lining up on UAB to the tune of 80% of bets. The Cougars bested those opponents by 72 total yards per game at 1.4 yards per play. UAB had a nice season finishing at 8-4. One interesting side note. BYU was favored by -8.5 vs USC in its last game, and now less on a neutral field to UAB? UAB was out-scored by 3 points a game this season vs a team playing in a bowl. One of the issues for UAB this season is they rank 3rd in the nation in penalty yards at 91 per game and can ill afford those type of mistakes here vs an elite opponent. The Cougars fit the bowl situation that favors a coach that has coached more bowl games then the opposing coach which is now 122-87-1 ATS. Make the play on BYU.

The story line for this game is obvious. UTEP is a program that won 5 games the last 4 years, and here they are at 7-5 and in a bowl game for the first time since 2014 and last won a bowl game over 50 years ago. Do you think this is going to be a motivated team? Fresno St. lost their coach, and he will be replaced by an interim, but interim bowl coaches are not a factor of the outcome as they are around 50/50 over the years. The issue of the day is who will start at QB for Fresno St.? QB Jake Haener originally opted out and into the transfer portal, but decided to withdraw. Interim head coach Lee Marks will not disclose which of 3 potential starting QBs will actually start the game. My best guess is they all play, or at least 2 of them play. I like the play on UTEP here, because if Haener plays I like UTEP some, but if he doesn't I like UTEP a lot. I am going to play UTEP here. If Haener doesn't play, or if the QB duties are split the value of the play just increases. The more motivated team here in either case is UTEP. It is a huge game for them. Make the play on UTEP.

Bahamas Bowl - Thomas Robinson Stadium - Nassau,

The Bowl season gets underway when Toledo (7-5) takes on Middle Tennessee St. (6-6). Middle Tennessee sure has some issues at QB as they are down to their 4th string QB as Chase Cunningham, Alec Ogden, and Bailey Hockman are all declared out. This is going to be a game decided by who can win the battle between the potent Toledo running game, and a Middle Tennessee run stop unit that did not allow 100 yard rusher in their last 7 games. Wind will be at least a slight factor as they are projected at 16 MPH with higher gusts, just enough to have some impact. There is one area of this game that is far under the radar. These teams have combined this season for 16 special teams or defensive touchdowns. That amounts to 112 points or 56 per team. Both teams finished plus double-digits in turnover margin, so there is a lot of scoring by these teams that was unrelated to the offense and I think the total here is not where it should be. Both teams are going to want to run the ball which should help to shorten the game as well. I like the under in this one.

This is the only covid-19 postponed game all season as USC will take on California to close out the Pac-12 regular season. This has been a brutal season for USC. This team has really struggled to find its way back into the national limelight. USC has moved the ball fairly well but the defense has been really bad. That is where Cal has the edge in this game, as they have great numbers when QB Chase Garbers lines up under center. USC's offense has not been as good without the best offensive player in the conference WR Drake London. The USC offense is also not quite as good with Jaxson Dart at QB, so a couple missing ingredients extends the Cal advantage in this game. USC is also likely to be without top RB Keaontay Ingram. Suddenly, an above average USC offense is below average. I'm not sure if it is the name on the jersey that says USC that has held this line down, but this line is off significantly and I will make the play on Cal.

Iowa wasn't supposed to be here, but things broke right for them, and here they are. The Hawkeyes are 10-2 on the season, and they did it entirely on defense. Iowa may be the first 10-2 P5 conference team to ever finish 10-2 while being out-gained by opponents by 17 yards per game. Their very good defense along with a +13 turnover advantage on the season is what got them here. The problem here is the Michigan offense is as good as the Iowa defense, and when you turn that around, the Iowa offense isn't even nearly on the same level as the Michigan defense. Michigan has out-gained their opponents by 132 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play. That is a huge advantage. Make the play on Michigan.

I don't think too many had Wake Forest vs Pitt for the ACC Championship Game back at the beginning of the season. They both enter the game at 10-2. These teams are both very similar on offense. They don't run the ball particularly well, but they have tremendous passing attacks. If you look at both offenses they are pretty much dead even. The difference comes on defense. Wake Forest is out-gaining opponents 484-428 or by 56 yards a game and Pitt 513-353 or by 160 yards per game. Wake gave up 543 yards to Clemson, and 4 of their last 6 opponents went for 42 or more, so the defense if anything may even be regressing. Looking at the 5 common opponents this season Wake went 3-2 and Pitt 5-0. The difference was all defense, as both scored similar points but Wake gave up 9 more points per game. I like Pittsburgh in this one.

Everyone seems to want Cincinnati to stumble. They have passed every test put in front of them this season. The offense and defense are both elite. They will take on an 11-1 Houston team. But in NASA parlance, "Houston, We have a problem." That problem is while the Cougars finished the season 11-1 they had 0 wins vs the top 50! I'm not saying they are not a good team, they are, but they have not faced a team this year that should have beaten them, and what they are going to see on the field this week is completely different. Many think the pressure will be on Cincinnati, but for that matter it has been on them all season. They stepped up every time they had to. I think you are going to see the best of this team on Saturday. They have a chance to make history, and they aren't going leave a bit of energy off the field. They know style points are important, so a back door cover here is not a likely scenario. I see a 2 TD+ win here for the Bearcats. Make the play on Cincinnati.

There is a lot on the line here for both teams. Georgia ran the regular season table finishing 12-0, while Alabama had 1 loss at 11-1. Additionally, Alabama played a lot of close games and were lucky to get out of the Iron Bowl game vs Auburn with a win. This is the best chance Georgia has had to beat Alabama. It is also their best chance for a National Championship as well. Win or lose Georgia will be in the playoffs, for Alabama it is a must win. I think both of these offenses are elite, and the big difference here is the Georgia defense allowed fewer than 7 points a game on the season, and no team produced better than 17 against them. (Last team to allow 17 or fewer points to every team was 1979 Texas). Alabama is almost always the team with the best defense, and that simply is not the case this year for the Tide. The defense is good, but it is not on the level the Georgia defense is and that should be the difference in this game. Bryce Young will be under more pressure in this game than he has felt all season. Alabama has beaten Georgia 6 straight times. I think this is going to be the end of that. Make the play on Georgia.

I think there is a lot of hidden value in this one. UCLA demolished their rival USC and put up 62 points and 609 yards of offense. Cal has actually been the better team in yards per play differential this season. The other point of value is the Cal loss to lowly Arizona 10-3. Cal had over 24 players and coaches out with covid-19, including their QB. That is the biggest impact that covid has had in a college football game all season. They came back and crushed Stanford last week. The Cal defense is finally living up to expectations allowing 15.5ppg in its last 6 and has not failed to cover a game since October the 2nd. I like the points here. Cal can make it to a Bowl with 2 wins in their last 2 games. Full effort should be the case here, and not so much for UCLA. Make the play on California.

This is not only a huge rivalry game, but with both teams at 10-1 and still some hope of making the playoffs it will be an intense battle. This is usually an offensive showcase, but the Oklahoma Sooners offense is not anything like it has been the past few years. They have managed 14 points vs Baylor and 28 vs Iowa St. and Oklahoma St. has one of the best defenses in the country. The Cowboys have held opponents to 13 fewer points than they average on the season, and no team has scored more than 24 points against them all season. Oklahoma has a huge gap between home and road offensively. The Sooners have put up 41ppg at home but just 21.5ppg on the road. While it has been typical over the past few years that in pretty much every game the Sooner offense is the best unit on the field. That won't be the case here it will be the Oklahoma St. defense. The Sooners are out-gaining opponents by just 0.2 yards per play on the road. Coach Gundy gets his teams ready to play in a favorite role where they are 82-54 ATS. Oklahoma St. is currently 7th in the playoff standings. Baylor is #8. A win here and a win in the B-12 Championship game over Baylor would leave Oklahoma St. 3 points from an unbeaten season, and at 12-1 they are going to be in the hunt. I think they are the better team, with a lot to play for, and have always played well at home. My NCAAF GOM IS ON OKLAHOMA ST.

The fate of the Old Dominion team changed when they finally had seen enough of QB D.J. Mack, and replaced him with Hayden Wolff. Old Dominion began the season at 0-5 against FBS teams, and they have since gone 4-0 and have a lot of feel good and momentum. A win here will get them bowl eligible. The Monarchs have also covered 4 straight. Old Dominion will go up against one of the worst defenses in the country. Charlotte allows 7.1 yards per play and the Old Dominion defense is pretty good. This game looks like at least a comfortable 2 TD win, and probably more. Make the play on Old Dominion.

I`m not sure it was supposed to end this way but David Cutliffe has gone full circle at Duke. He inherited perhaps the worst P5 program in the country, and made the program viable. Duke went from doormat to a team that won 7 or more games in 5 of 6 years, but he is leaving right where he started off. Duke has a total of 5 wins the last 2 years and over their last they have been outscored 51-15 on average per game. Miami, Fla. has lost 3 of their last 7 games by a combined total of 8 points. That is how close they are to being 7-0. Miami has scored 28 points or more in all 7, and against a Duke team that allows 9.6 yards per pass attempt, the Hurricanes are going to get a lot more. Make the play on Miami, Fla.

This is a big game for both teams as the winner will become bowl eligible. While both teams are 5-6 there is a big difference between the teams. Simply put, Maryland is the much better team. The 6 Maryland losses came against the top 6 Big-10 teams. They have played a very difficult schedule. Maryland is 5-0 vs a team on Rutgers level by an average of 19ppg. Rutgers was beaten by 6 Big-10 teams by an average final score of 34-8. Maryland has not only played a more aggressive schedule, they have out-gained opponents from the line of scrimmage by a lot more than Rutgers. Make the play on Maryland.

The season did not go quite as planed for North Carolina. They have a very good QB in Sam Howell, but the defense was not up to a high enough standard and they enter their finale at just 6-5. North Carolina has allowed 41.2ppg to their last 5 FBS opponents. The offense just can't overcome that week after week. The NC State defense may be the best they have faced all season. The Wolfpack allows just 4.8 yards per play and the pass defense is 1.2 yards per play better than the schedule of opponents they have faced this season. This game also fits a situation that is 101-64 ATS. Make the play on NC State,

This will be a tough spot for Arkansas to find its "A" game. The Razorbacks took Alabama to the wire last week and emptied the tank in doing so, especially emotionally. Arkansas has played a very difficult schedule and this game following the big one last week vs Alabama provides a good spot for Missouri to stay close. Missouri QB Connor Bazlak is not to bad and Arkansas will once again be without the services of Jalen Catalon who makes a huge difference in the Arkansas secondary.Missouri has been playing much better of late as the Tigers are 3-1 in their last 4 and has covered 3 straight. Think this is too many points. Make the play on Missouri.

Nebraska has had a very difficult season. The Cornhuskers are 3-8 but have not lost a game by more than 9 points all season.This will be the first time in NCAA Football history that a 3-8 team is favored over a 9-2 team. The previous 82 times this has occurred the 3-8 team was never better than a +7.5 point favorite. Nebraska took a blow with QB Adrien Martinez out for this game. Martinez is an experienced and very good QB, and he is also a top runner. The Nebraska offense is going to take a hit facing a very strong Iowa defense. There is also some hidden value here as the Nebraska special teams are brutal and Iowa has one of the best special teams in NCAA Football. Add it all up and Iowa is the choice here in this one.

When you think of Ole Miss you immediately think of high scoring games. They have played to lofty totals all season, but their games have not been as explosive as the odds-makers have suggested. Ole Miss has actually played 5 straight games to the under. The total for this one is running in the mid 60s and it just doesn't fit what these teams have done on the season. Vanderbilt doesn't belong in the SEC, which is part of the reason, but the Commodores have allowed 45 points or less in SEC games this season, and have allowed 40 on average. The issue for them is can they score? Vanderbilt is averaging just 10ppg in their 6 conference tilts this season, so their SEC games have averaged just 50ppg, and 4 of their last 5 have played under the total. Ole Miss has scored 31 or fewer points in 5 of their 6 SEC games which have averaged 61.7ppg, and 5 straight have played under the total. The total suggests a51-14 final score, while combined these teams average 56.1ppg in SEC games. If you look at Ole Miss and their outlier 52-51 win vs Arkansas, their SEC games average just 53.4ppg. Vandy lost to Georgia 62-0, otherwise their SEC games have seen 49.8ppg scored. What I am suggesting is it will take another outlier game to push this over the total. Moreover, Ole Miss is off a huge upset of Texas A&M, and are in a letdown spot, and on deck for them is the Egg Bowl rivalry game vs Miss St. I don't them pushing hard in this game. Make the play on the under.

UCLA and USC share a city rivalry. The Bruins should have won last year, and I think this is one of those circled games. The Trojans will be handicapped in this one as their top 2 offensive players QB Kedon Slovis, and WR Drake London are out. USC has 16 players on the injury report which has devastated this team. UCLA started strong, but are 3-3 in their last 6 with all 3 losses coming to teams at the top of the conference. They have handled everyone else. The Trojans are a negative team allowing more yards per play than they generate, and down to a freshman QB without a top target is going to be difficult. UCLA is positive from the line of scrimmage and the huge edge comes in the passing game, as USC has not been able to defend a competent passing attack all season. There really isn't any home field advantage here as both teams play in the same city. Coach Kelly has seen his teams go 17-2 ATS off a game where they committed 1 or fewer turnovers, and this game fits in a 76-31 ATS situation favoring the Bruin's as well. Make the play on UCLA.

The Wisconisn Badgers started the season 0-3, but have run off 7 straight. Wisconsin was lacking a running game and they started giving Allen the ball and the offense started having success running the ball as they have for years. The defense has allowed just 7.3ppg in their last 6. You won't find value on a team doing that. Nebraska is hidden solidly under the radar with a 3-7 record. Their stats would indicate a top 25 team, but they have 7 losses. They have out-gained those 7 opponents combined, and their losses include playoff hopefuls Oklahoma, Ohio St., Michigan, and Michigan St. None of the 7 losses have come by more than 9 points, so things could look a lot different for this team. I believe Nebraska is the better overall team and Wisconsin is going to be in for a game. Make the play on Nebraska.

The wheels have come off for Indiana. The Hoosiers appeared to have things turned around with a pair of Bowl appearances in the last 2 years, but rising expectations have been derailed. Indiana is not a team that can just reload, and they lost their top 3 players to the NFL a year ago. Having QB Michael Penix back from a torn ACL a year ago may have set unrealistic expectations, and at 2-8 on the season, and 1 of just 3 Power 5 teams that has yet to beat another Power 5 team, the season has been a disaster. Penix is doubtful here and is still nursing a shoulder injury. Jack Tuttle took over but he has just a 51.7% completion percentage with 2 TDs and 5 INT's. Donavon McCulley took over when Tuttle was injured and completed just 42.7% of his passes. It all coes down to no good options. The Hoosiers did score 35 against Maryland but against 6 other Big-10 opponents they scored a total of 38! The Gophers have had some offensive issues of their own, but have above average receivers, that need to get the ball more. The biggest area of consistency for Minnesota has been defense. The last 4 opponents have seen none generate more than 277 yards, and Indiana is going to really struggle to move the ball here regardless of who is at QB. They may not score a lot, but they likely won't need to. Make the play on Minnesota.

A lot of bettors shy away from very big point spreads. I never look at it that way. The size of the line has nothing to do with winning and losing, it is the value. Umass is a true bottom feeder, and Army beat this team 63-7 in 2019. Army has shown no mercy when playing very bad teams as they have beaten this number many times in recent years. Walt Bell has really struggled trying to get the UMass program competitive. The road has been a colossal struggle. Walt Bell has played 14 road games since taking over at UMass and his team is 2-12 ATS losing by an average score of 50.5-8.1. This year his team has played 4 road games and opponents have on average won by 48.8ppg, with no opponent winning by fewer than 44! Yes the line is huge for this game, but I see Army winning here by 45 plus points. Make the play on Army.

The look of this Texas team right now is brutally ugly. The Horns have dropped 5 straight games and a once-proud blue-blood program is looking to be at rock bottom right now. Who wants any part of this team right now? It has dramatically impacted the betting line as Texas opened a -2.5 point favorite, and is now a 2.5 point underdog. This is a great spot to buy low. Taking a look at the 5 games lost, 4 were to the best 4 teams in the Big-12. After that gauntlet of high-profile teams, the Horns lost to lowly Kansas 57-56. A closer look shows Texas dominated that game out-gaining the Jayhawks 574-420. That was despite the fact that Texas lost the turnover battle 4-0. One of the turnovers was a pick-6. West Virginia doesn't have the offense to stay with Texas, and the Mountaineers are no bargain at 2-5 SU in their last 7 games. A team that has a winning percentage of .333 or worse and is posted as a home favorite and facing a team better than .333 is just 395-504-14 ATS at 43.9%. That goes to 120-174-9 ATS to a line of less than -4. I see tremendous line value here with Texas. My game of the year is on Texas. (+3  -125).

The Stanford Cardinal have struggled, and last week they played without QB Tanner McKee. It was a total disaster as the Cardinal lost 52-7 and passed for 85 yards at 3.6 yards per attempt. McKee is very unlikely yo play this week and Stanford head coach is going to go with freshman Ari Patu. It would be the first time a freshman QB has ever started a game in the Shaw era. Oregon St. has appeared to slip lately but it has been a tale of two teams this season for the Beavers. They are 1-4 at home, but 4-0 at home where they have averaged winning by 17.8ppg. Stanford didn't cross mid-field the entire 1st half last week and scored 7 points on just 167 yards of total offense. Patu will be the 4th different starting QB for Stanford this year, so call him the 4th string QB. West and Sanders have not gotten it done when called on. Make the play on Oregon St.

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers saw their games average in the 40s last year. This team has opened up the offense and are one of the top offensive teams in the league averaging 513 yards per game. They should have no trouble reaching or topping those numbers vs Rice, who allowed 620 yards to Texas, and 52 points to UTSA. The Hilltoppers over the last 5 weeks are averaging 43+ points per contest. Rice is averaging 19.3ppg but have been shutout by Texas, and UTSA in its last 7 games, and otherwise has averaged 30ppg in their other 5. Western Kentucky is allowing 29.3ppg on the season, and there is plenty of room for a lot of scoring here. Make the play on the over.

Mississippi St. comes into this game just 5-4 on the season, but a closer look reveals things are better than they appear. They were no match for Alabama, but their other 3 losses came by 2 vs Memphis, 3 by LSU, and 3 vs Arkansas. Most telling i the yardage edge they had in those games which was an amazing 1440-982. They out-gained all 3 opponents by an average of better than 150 yards per contest. This is a team that has averaged 18 more snaps per game more than their opponent, and is where a lot of the hidden value lies. This team is good defensively, and certainly can play from behind if necessary. Auburn QB Bo Nix is completing less than 60% of his passes and the Auburn passing game is a tick below average. Miss St. could realistically be 8-1 coming into this game, or certainly better than the 5-4 record they present here, which has their true ability well under the radar. Too many points here, make the play on Mississippi St.

The Oklahoma Sooners are a perfect 9-0 on the season. There is an ominous sign for this team. Despite reputation, and being one of just 2 P5 teams in the country to have a perfect record they are currently ranked #8 to be in the playoffs. There is good reason for that. This is not the same Oklahoma team we have seen in recent years. They have yet to face a team in the top 25, and despite of that they have won games by the slimmest of margins. They have had one possession wins vs Tulane, Nebraska, W. Virginia, Texas, and Kansas St. They have out-gained opponents by just 95 yards per game. Not typical of an elite 9-0 team. Baylor has out-gained their schedule of opponents by an equal 93 yards per game. The Baylor yards per play differential exceeds that of Oklahoma. It is by reputation and a 9-0 record that has Oklahoma as a road favorite in this one. The Bears got caught ast week in a look ahead in an upset loss to TCU. Expect their best game of the year in this one. Oklahoma has yet to play the top 3 teams in the B-12 which are Baylor, Iowa St., and Oklahoma St. (2 of them on the road). I think this is a toss up game, so adding in home field advantage and getting several points, makes the Bears a live dog here. Baylor has been knocking on the door the last 3 years vs Oklahoma, losing by 11, then 7, then 3 and covering them all, this year I think they crash through with the upset. Make the play on Baylor.

The Temple Owls have had a very trying season, and this team looks like they have packed it in. The Owls last 4 games have been complete wipe outs as the Owls have been out-scored 180-27. Houston brings in an 8 game winning streak and is averaging 39.1ppg on the season, but should be able to exceed those numbers vs the hapless Owls. The Owls offense has seen a lot of garbage time against non-starters over the 4 weeks and still have managed to average 243 yards per game, and just 6.8ppg. The Owls 6 losses have come by an average of 37.5ppg! Make the play on Houston.

A lot will be fooled by the records of these teams. Tennessee is much better than their 4-4 record, as they are above average on both sides of the ball. Kentucky got off to a 6-0 start but have been exposed the last 2 weeks by Miss St., and Georgia. The Wildcats were mild cats on offense producing 459 total yards in the 2 games combined. Kentucky has beaten itself a lot with 3 or more turnovers in 3 games already on the season. The 3 turnovers a game equals the amount of total turnovers Tennessee has made over the last 6 games! Tennessee lost last year when they went into halftime with a 203-75 yardage edge, yet trailed 17-3. Kentucky had 2 pick-6s in the first half. They certainly should be motivated here to return the favor. Tennessee has gone 31-3 SU vs Kentucky the last 34 games, and are also 10-2 ATS in their last 12 trips to Lexington. Tennessee is off a bye, and the last time Kentucky won 2 in a row vs Tennessee is in 1976! Tennessee will stop the Kentucky ground game, as they lead the country with 70 tackles for a loss this season. Tennessee has fared much better vs common opponents, and the final score vs Alabama last week was misleading as the Vols trailed by 7 in the 4th quarter. This game also fits a 122-57 ATS situation for Tennessee. Make the play on Tennessee.

Both these teams enter this game at 4-4, and this game will certainly have Bowl implications, with the winner taking a leg up, and the loser left below .500. Western Kentucky is so different than they were a year ago. Last year they were in defensive games, this year they have a potent offense. The Hilltoppers are 3rd in the country averaging 533 yards per game, as well as 13rd in the country in yards per play margin. This is a passing attack that will really test the back 7 of Middle Tennessee. The Blue Raiders are going to have to score a lot of points here, and after having a pair of QB's already leave the team, current starting QB Chase Cunningham is questionable with an undisclosed injury or issue. This line is light because Middle Tennessee is off a pair of big blowout wins by 31 and 25 points. The problem is the 2 teams are both bottom 5 or 10 in the country, and this is a whole different opponent. Interesting note on last week for Middle Tennessee. They beat Southern Miss 35-10, but the box score shows they were held to 284 total yards. They scored 3 non-offensive TD's in the game, so the offense generated just 10 points. There is a lot of hidden value in this game. Middle Tennessee has defended the pass well, but they have yet to face a team that throws for close to 400 yards a game. W. Kentucky plays at a very high tempo and as it is Middle Tennessee is -11 plays per game vs their opponents this year. That could be higher this week. Make the play on W. Kentucky.

Here we go again. These games always look horrible for the dog, but have a huge and long history of covering. I played Navy for the same reason this year vs Cincinnati, and will play them again based on this. Military teams run the ball almost every down. It shortens the game, and makes large point spreads very difficult to take down despite the talent differential. Play on any Military team that is a dog of 20 or more points. They are 82-37-4 ATS in this role. Make the play on Navy.

Temple is 3-4 on the season, but the schedule has more to do with that than anything else. The Owls beat Wagner, and Akron among their 3 wins. They played a perfect unexpected game against Memphis in a 3 point upset win. Their last 3 games saw them get out-scored 135-24 turning the ball over 9 times and failing to generate more than 283 yards in any of the 3. ECU is 4-4 on the season. ECU has lost to South Carolina by 3, Central Florida by 4, and Houston by 7. Temple is a very bad team, and ECU can move the ball offensively with both the run and the pass. The Owls are poor on both sides of the ball and won't keep the pace here. Make the play on East Carolina.

While this is a natural in-state rivalry, Kansas has now lost 12 straight times to Kansas St. Kansas St. has not allowed Kansas to score more than 21 points in any of the 12 games, and has averaged allowing just 14.3ppg. The Jayhawks this year in their 7 games vs FBS opponents stand at 0-7 with an average scoring margin of -32.4ppg. While the line appears steep here, the ingredients and history show it isn't large enough. Last year these teams played 7 common opponents in which Kansas was out-scored by 36.3 points per game and the 4 common opponents this year show Kansas at -31 points per game. Kansas St. has lost to Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., and Iowa St. and were competitive in all 3 games. The distance between these 2 teams is beyond the line in this one. Make the play on Kansas St.

North Carolina lost its unstoppable running game from a year ago, but this team is still a strong offense. The defense is playing reasonably well and you wonder why this team has lost to Florida St., Virginia Tech, and Georgia Tech already. The Tar Heels are out-gaining opponents by 92 yards per game, but they have been guilty of 3 turnovers in 2 of their 3 losses. Notre Dame has a 6-1 record on the season yet they are posted as a dog at home to 4-3 North Carolina. The Irish have turned opponents over 16 times in 7 games and that is exactly what the Tra Heels have struggled with all season. The Heels could be letting down here as well. What was thought to be a Heisman QB, and a certain New Year's Bowl game, or playoff game has all been lost already. Meanwhile at 6-1 Notre Dame continues to improve and has everything to play for. Make the play on Notre Dame.

This is strictly a system and situational play. I have a situation on Oregon St. that is 103-46 -4 ATS. Make the play on Oregon St.

The Kansas St. Wildcats are 4-3 and this is a huge game at home. They need to win here and find 1 more win and this team will be Bowl eligible. TCU is 3-4 and in trouble, because they have games with Baylor, Oklahoma St., and Iowa St. ahead and this looks like their 2nd losing season in the last 3 years. This program has been slipping, and they are not the defensive team they used to be year after year. I think Kansas St. has more to play for right now and they are at home where they are always very competitive. Make the play on Kansas St.

The Colorado Buffalo's are now the worst offensive team in the nation gaining just an average of 238 yards per game. Colorado has gained fewer than 200 yards a game in their 5 losses on the season. Oregon has been pretty solid on both sides of the ball, and I really doubt that Colorado is going to contribute much here in this game, and almost all the points will have to come from Oregon. Outside of big scoring games vs Stony Brook, and winless Arizona Oregon has scored 24-35 points in every game. I think this number is too high and will make the play on the under.

It has been a long time since Rutgers was looking to be a .500 team after 8 games, and that opportunity is in front of them again. Greg Schiano made Rutgers relevant and he looks like he can do it again. Illinois played in a 9 overtime game last week. That had to be physically draining, as well as mentally and emotionally. Now they take on an equal team that is coming in fresh off a bye with 2 weeks to prepare. Illinois was a 24.5 point dog to Penn St. and won. I think this team is going to be mentally and emotionally absent this week. Illinois also has QB issues as Artur Sitkowski is out for the year and Peters has just never gotten it done at Illinois. Make the play on Rutgers.

Louisville is 3-3 and while they have a powerful offense, the defense has given all of it back. The Cardinals have scored 30 or more points in 5 straight games but they have lost 2 of them. They are allowing 34.4ppg to FBS opponents. Boston College has lost 2 straight, but both the losses came against strong defensive teams, and they have averaged over 40 points per game in their 4 wins. Louisville has NC State and Clemson on deck, and their level of focus here may not be their best. Boston College lost the turnover battle 5-0 in their last 2 games. Louisville has yielded close to 500 yards a game in their 5 contests vs FBS opponents, and it is tough trusting a team in the favorite role that plays absolutely no defense. The back door is wide open here, at the least. Louisville has not relished this role as they are 10-21 ATS as a conference home favorite in their last 31 coming off a loss, and that becomes 1-10 ATS if their opponent is off 2 straight losses. Make the play on Boston College.

Hard to back a team that is 0-5 SU vs FBS teams which is the case for California. What makes it even more ironic is Cal has had a turnover advantage on the season. Colorado has had some bad games at 2-4, but one of their losses was 10-7 vs Texas A&M. I think that says they have a higher ceiling in this game. Colorado is allowing fewer than 20ppg so getting better than a TD here with the much better defense in the game is an attractive proposition. Cal has no home field advantage as they are 0-10-1 ATS as a home favorite failing to cover by nearly 13ppg. Cal averages just 23ppg so getting enough here with a below average offense is not an easy task. Colorado has gone 20-10 ATS as a dog under coach Karl Dorrell. Make the play on Colorado.

This game in a lot of ways is important to both teams. Wake Forest returned 20 starters, and have a dynamic QB, and come into this game 6-0. The triple option is tough for a lot of teams, but when a team has 2 weeks to prepare for it, often they do a better job. Wake can move to 7-0 with Duke next week, and a pair of wins will have the Demon Deacons at 8-0 and heading to North Carolina for a huge game. Army started 4-0 but have lost consecutive games to Ball St., and Wisconsin. Their game last week was very physical, and it may show in this game. This is a highly motivated spot for Wake to remain unbeaten, and they have beaten Army 9 of the last 11 meetings. Army has managed just 16.5ppg against Wake, so they have done a very solid job with the option, with lesser teams. I think Wake is the odds on favorite to win the ACC right now. Army has 4 wins all coming vs bad teams that have combined to go 7-19. I like Wake Forest in this one.