I am traveling this weekend, so I apologize, no write ups. Make the play on Texas.

I am traveling this weekend, so I apologize, no write ups. Make the play on UTEP

I am traveling this weekend, so I apologize, no write ups. Make the play on Arkansas.

I am traveling this weekend, so I apologize, no write ups. Make the play on California.

I am traveling this weekend, so I apologize, no write ups. Make the play on UCLA.

I am traveling this weekend, so I apologize, no write ups. Make the play on Coastal Carolina.

I am traveling this weekend, so I apologize, no write ups. Make the play on South Carolina.

I am traveling this weekend, so I apologize, no write ups. Make the play on UL Lafayette.

I am traveling this weekend, so I apologize, no write ups. Make the play on Wake Forest.

Georgia Tech is a lot closer to Georgia than the line. Georgia has this huge perception of being just as good this season as their recent elite teams. They also do not play their hardest in games as a heavy favorite. They are 16-26 ATS when favored by 16.5 or more points, but show up in the more competitive games as they are 20-12 ATS in their last 32 as a favorite of 16 or fewer points. I like Georgia Tech.

The Oklahoma St. Cowboys have one of the worst pass defenses in the country. The Cowboys are allowing 8.2 yards per pass attempt. The elite Colorado passing attack is averaging 8.4 yards per passing attempt. The best of this Oklahoma St. team is their passing offense which averages 7.4 yards per pass attempt. The Buffaloes are allowing 7.4 yards per pass attempt, and both these teams love to throw the ball. They combine for an average of 76 passes per game, and with the way this match up stacks up as strength vs. weakness on both sides, I would expect to see 85+ passing attempts in this game, with a lot of success. Make the play over the total.

This game has a big match-up advantage for the East Carolina Pirates. It's no secret that the Navy is going to run the ball 75% of the time, but that plays into the best part of the East Carolina team that allows just 3.8 yards per rush. East Carolina also has the edge in their passing game averaging 8.4 yards per attempt, which plays into the Navy's defensive weakness. Make the play on East Carolina.

The Memphis Tigers and the Tulane Green Wave are both 9-2 on the season, and the Green Wave has won 8 straight games. The Green Wave has an elite passing attack that averages 9.5 yards per attempt but throws the ball just 22 times per game. I think they will be putting the ball in the air a lot more as Memphis is good vs. the run, but not against the pass. Tulane has held their last 3 opponents to 9 total points. Memphis is highly overrated. They are 9-2, but have actually been outscored by their opponents on the road. Outside of the Kansas St. game Tulane has outscored their opponents at home by 173-26. Memphis lost against UTSA and Navy and allowed 100 points in the 2 games. Make the play on Tulane.

Air Force went 0-7 in their first 7 games vs. FBS competition. Air Force scored 13 or fewer points in 5 of those 7 games. They have something going as the Falcons have 2 straight wins where they averaged 32ppg. Both games were upset wins. Nevada has been just the opposite as they started at 3-4, but have lost 4 straight games. The Wolfpack did not score more than 21 points in the 4 games. This is a trap game after giving Boise St. fits, and their rival UNLV the following week. This game fits a dog off 2 dog wins situation that is 87-47 ATS. Make the play on Nevada.

Notre Dame has the worst loss of any team in the top 12. The Irish lost at home to Northern Illinois 16-14. They have since run the table and ranked #6 in the projected playoffs. Army is 9-0 and rank #18. They probably don't have a chance to get into the top 12, but if they win it will get interesting. There is a huge matter at hand here. Army has played to a schedule that ranks #134 in the country, which is the easiest of any team. The highest ranked team they have faced this season is UAB, who sits at #80. They have not faced a better team all year, so this game is going to be different. Army employs the triple-option which is hard to prepare for, but Notre Dame faced Navy less than a month ago, and won 51-14. I like Notre Dame.

 I think most knew with a coach that left for the NFL and graduation of many integral players from last year`s National Championship that duplicating that feat was going to be a tall order. Nothing is better than having their weakest opponent since Arkansas St. in week 3 on the schedule. Michigan realizes a win at least gets them to a Bowl, and with Ohio St. left, they better seize the opportunity. Northwestern has not had a 100 yard rusher all season, nor have the thrown for more than 250 yards. Northwestern in their 6 losses has scored 10.4ppg. I like Michigan.

This is a system sizzler play. In the second half of the season (game number 7 out), a team that has played their last 3 games that have gone under a collectively 35 or more points are 83-35 ATS including 11-4 ATS this year. Make the play on Rice.

Needless to say this is the biggest game on the card this week. The Ohio St. Buckeyes will host the Indiana Hoosiers, who have suddenly become a football school. Ohio St. sits at #2 in the playoff rankings at 9-1, while Indiana is at #5 at 10-0. My ratings on this play surprised me hen I ran the numbers, as it shows the final score of Ohio St. 26.72-24.30.Add in 3 points for home field and the line should be Ohio St. -5.5. These teams are a lot closer than the look. I like the value on the Hoosiers. Make the play on Indiana. 

The Kansas Jayhawks will travel to play undefeated BYU. This will be the 2nd straight opponent that Kansas will play in consecutive games. This game does not look right. How can the #6 team in the nation that is unbeaten be just a -2.5 point favorite at home? Kansas has an improved offense, but most of that has been seen at home. The Jayhawks are averaging 36.4ppg at home to just 25.8ppg on the road. BYU is an elite team that has surprised a lot of people, and the numbers have not caught up to them despite of their unbeaten status. This line suggests Kansas would be a 1 point favorite on a neutral field, A team that is coming off a win vs a 6-0 or better team and now facing another 6-0 team or better are 29-40-3 ATS, including 11-17-2 as a road dog. Overall, these teams have been 10-22-1 ATS in this situation when the line is from +7 to -7, and 0-5 ATS lately. Make the ply on BYU.

South Carolina has one of the best defenses in the country at #6 in fewest yards per play by their opponents. Only the elite offenses of LSU, Alabama, and Ole Miss had any success. Those 3 teams averaged 30ppg, well below their averages. Mediocre or average offenses have struggled against this defense. Their other 6 opponents have averaged 11.3ppg against them. The Missouri offense ranks #94 and will struggle to get to 10 points. Missouri has a good defense and the SC offense is very average. I like the under.

Notre Dame is 8-1 on the season. The biggest surprise was their loss to Northern Illinois early in the season. The Irish are ranked #8 in the latest playoff release. The Irish will try to sneak into the top 4 as they will be a favorite in their last 3 games, which if they win, they will have an 11-1 season. Notre Dame plays out of the ACC for football only, and they have dominated the conference. Notre Dame is 16-2 ATS in their last 18 conference games. They are also 16-0 ATS in their 16 outright wins. hen the line has been from -7 to +7 they are 9-0 ATS. They have covered those games by 20.3ppg! Notre Dame ranks #6 in defensive yards per play allowed, and their offense ranks #19. Virginia is ranked #86 on offense is going to struggle to move the ball, and the Virginia defense is #84. Looks like a blowout. Make the play on Notre Dame.

he Tulane football program has risen from the ashes. The Green Wave is 8- on the season, and is coming off two consecutive seasons of 11 and 12 wins. They are 8-2 on the season and a third straight 10+ in season is well in reach. This is a team that won 10 or more games just 1 other time over their past 33 seasons. Tulane has an explosive offense that has averaged 44.6ppg in their last 7 contests. Navy is 7-2 on the season, but the losses have all come in their last 3 games. Navy has struggled to defend against elite offensive teams, as they allowed 51 to Notre Dame and 44 to Memphis. The Tulane defense is strong, especially vs. the pass where they rank #21 in the nation in opponents yards per pass attempt. Their run defense has been mediocre and ranks #76 in the country in stopping the run. That means the best part of their defense won't come into play here, as Navy is going to run the ball on most dons, and should be able to score a decent amount of points. I like the over.

I would never underestimate Kyle Whittingham as a coach. Utah has struggled without Cam Rising at QB, but I'm sure coch Whittingham will have some gadget plays or special teams play, as he always finds a way to keep his team competitive. His team is 17-2-1 ATS when posted as a 7 point or more dog. Colorado was lucky last week. They were out-gained, Texas Tech was -3 in turnovers, had a missed field goal, was stopped at the Colorado 1, and gave up a TD in the last minute on a fumble. They handed Colorado the game. Colorado has Sheduer Sanders and he is an elite QB, but he has been sacked 28 times on the season, and this will be the best defense he has seen all year. Colorado despite Sanders has run 60 times for just 705 yards at 2.7 yards per game. The best part of the Utah defense is pass defense. Utah has allowed no team to score more than 27 points all season, and 8 of the 9 opponents have scored 23 or less.Utah has lost 5 games by a total of 31 points, and they will be in this one. Make the play on Utah.

The Utah Utes have been trending don from the 10+ win seasons they had right before the covid season. They won just 8 last year and are just 4-4 now. One ongoing problem as trying to get QB Cam Rising on the field, but his numerous injuries didn't allow for it. Issac Wilson has taken over at QB without very good results. He is averaging just 6.8 yards per pass, and has thrown only 8 TDs to 8 INTs. Utah has averaged just 12.5ppg. which isn't going to in too many games. BYU is 8-0 on the season and currently rank #9 in the playoff poll. Not only do they have a good offense, they have a very good defense, and cover point spreads at 7-1 ATS on the season. I ill lay the points here and play on BYU.

The first playoff poll came out and had Boise St. ranked in the #12 slot. That is the final slot, and Boise St. has reason to bring everything they have into this game, which means the #6 ranked offense in yards per play at 7.0 will be facing the #90 ranked defense. Boise St. should be scoring on almost every drive. The match up on the other side of the ball when Nevada has the ball is pretty even. Boise St. is the only team in the FBS that has scored 56 or more points in 4 games. Number 5 is coming in this one. Make the play on Boise St. The Broncos are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games played to a line of -21 or more points. Make the play on Boise St.

This game fits a situation that has been a powerhouse. It plays on certain unbeaten teams after week 6 of the season. It is 50-18-1 ATS and the play is on Oregon.

Louisiana Lafayette is 7-1 on the season with the only loss by 8 points to a very good Tulane team. Arkansas St. is 5-3, but looking at the numbers in this game the advantage is a big one when the Ragin Cajans have the ball. Louisiana has an offense that ranks #14 in the FBS in yards per play at 6.6, while the Arkansas defense is allowing 6.5 and ranked #120. The numbers say that Louisiana is going to have a significant edge hen they have the ball. I will make the play on Louisiana.

Navy started the season 6-0, then went to Notre Dame and got beaten badly. They followed with a low energy letdown game vs. Rice that turned into a 14 point loss. South Florida is 4-4 on the season, but their 4 wins have all come to really bad teams. Navy despite the consecutive losses remains as the best ATS road record of any team in NCAAF over a very long period of time. Navy is 108-60-1 ATS on the road in their last 169 games. That becomes 29-13-1 ATS off of 2 losses. I will back Navy in this one.

I think there is a lot of value on this UCLA team in this game. The Iowa defense which has been their calling card for years is still good, but not elite as it has been in recent years. Iowa is allowing 5.1 yards per play against them which ranks #41. The UCLA defense ranks #56 at 5.3 yards per play. There is one huge difference. UCLA has faced the toughest schedule in the nation. UCLA over a game game stretch faced Indiana, LSU,Oregon, Penn St., and Minnesota. These 5 teams are a collective 37-6. They lost 5 straight, and appeared to be looked at as a poor team. They are 2-0 since those 5 games, and on last eek on the road as a 7 point dog. They are getting 6 here, and I think these teams are fairly even, and the Bruins are home. Make the play on UCLA.

The Memphis Tigers come into this game with a record of 7-2 on the season. They will take on the Rice Owls who was just an upset winner vs, Navy. Memphis has proven through the season that they can hold down a bad offense. Memphis allowed 17 to Troy, 122 to Florida St., 7 to Middle Tennessee, 3 to S. Fla., and 0 to FCS Northern Arizona. Rice has little offense as they average just 4.9 yards per play, which ranks #110 in the country. Rice does have a better than average defense that ranks #31 allowing just 4.9 yards per play.The 4 FBS teams mentioned above average ranking #104 on offense and Rice is #110, so I don`t expect much from the rice offense, but I also think that Rice has a good enough defense to keep Memphis from going off. Make the play under the total.

Breaking down Baylor and TCU is interesting. Both these teams matchup statistically dead even, That would make the line look right at -3 with Baylor getting 3 points for home field.Baylor has been a much better offensive team with Sayer Robertson at QB. Fewer turnovers, better yards per pass attempt, and more of a duel threat as he averages 5.9 yards per carry for Baylor. Baylor really has the offense going with 97 total points their last 2 games. TCU is 5-3 on the season, and somewhat over-rated. They have played ell below the line at 2-6 ATS.Baylor fits a situation that is 97-56 ATS and is active for this game. Make the play on Baylor.

The South Carolina Gamecocks will host the Texas A&M Aggies Saturday night. This should be a favorable handicapping spot for the Gamecocks as they come in off their bye, and have had plenty of time to prepare and heel. South Carolina may be just 4-3, but have recorded a loss to Alabama by 2 and LSU by 3. They have also beaten Kentucky by 25, and covered 5 of their last 6 games. Texas A&M has on 7 straight after an opening game loss to Notre Dame. The Aggies are however just 3-5 ATS, and playing below the line. South Carolina is in a team off a bye situation that is 78-42-4 ATS. Make the play on South Carolina..

The Indiana Hoosiers have come up aces all season. They bring a perfect 8-0 SU ans 8-0 ATS record into their game at Minnesota. Indiana will get their QB back behind center. The Hoosiers are the shock of NCAA Football this season, and their coach, Curt Cignetti has done nothing but win and cover point-spreads. Cignetti is 22-9 ATS as an NCAAF FBS coach. hen he brings his team into the game unbeaten, his team is 18-4 ATS, and that includes 7-0 ATS in his last 7. The Hoosiers have won their 8 games by 2259 total points. Michigan St. has scored 19 or fewer points in 6 of their 8 games, and come in at just 4-4. The defense is good, but they gave up 31 to Ohio St., and 38 to Oregon. I don't see Michigan St. being able to move the ball enough to stay ithin a score. Make the play on Indiana.

Since the start of the 2018 season Georgia has been two different teams. When they are better than 3 TD favorites (-21.5 or more), they tend to not be interested in the game which says easy win. Those games show Georgia at 15-30-1 ATS. When they have been favored by 3 TDs or less (-21 or less), they are 41-21 ATS. Make the play on Georgia.

I'm not sure if I ever remember a team that as projected to be a top 5 team on the season, and through 8 games is 1-7. This team has no surpassed any chance for Bowl eligibility, and there is nothing left to play for. The Seminoles have one of the worst offenses in the nation, and since game 1 they have not reached 17 points in any game. The defense is good, but at this stage of the season, they are tired, and really have no goals remaining. Florida St. had their biggest game last week against Miami, and the defense played well, but that likely means this game is going to bring with it a big letdown. North Carolina moves to 5-4 on the season with a win, and 1 shy of Bowl eligibility. Make the play on North Carolina.

This game is huge for both teams. Ohio St. can't afford to pick up another loss, while this game affords the opportunity for Penn St. to finally get over the top and move ahead of Michigan, and Ohio St. as the best team in the Big-10. Penn St. has been knocking on the door as they are 6- ATS in their last 8 games vs. Ohio St. A bigger picture shows that a 5-0 or better team playing as a home dog has gone 20-2-1 ATS in the last 23 occurrences. The night belongs to the Nitany Lions. Make the play on Penn St.

UConn has gotten off to a 5-3 start and have a chance to become Bowl eligible tonight vs. Georgia St. at home. The Huskies have some issues on offense. They can't get the ball in the hands of their best offensive player R Skylar Bell. Since starting QB Joe Fagnano went down with a season ending injury the offense has done little, and Bell not part of it. Bell has just 7 catches the last 3 games for 81 yards. UConn has scored fewer points than their previous game for 4 straight games now. Defensively they are very good. They allowed 33ppg to the 3 power4 conference teams on their schedule and 11.6ppg in all other contests. They are limited in FG's taken as they are 2-6 from 40+ yards out or more. QB Zach Gibson has been better at QB, but the Panthers even with the improvement in the passing game has scored 0ppg in their last 3, and UConn is better defensively than all those teams. I like the under.

Kansas St. and Kansas have been playing a long time. Beyond the rivalry however is the knowledge and understanding that Kansas St. has the biggest home field advantage in college football. The Wildcats are an amazing 137-81- ATS mark at home (63% winners on the blind). If you are worried of this being a rivalry game, don't be. Kansas St. Kansas St. is 12-5 ATS at home vs. Kansas the last 17 played here.Make the play on Kansas St.

This is an instate rivalry game between visiting Michigan St. and Michigan. The Wolverines are just 4-3 SU on the season and have not been able to cover games as they are just 1-6 ATS on the season. Michigan made a QB change last week by inserting Jack Tuttle to run the offense. The result was a lot more of the same as the Michigan offense struggled to 4.4 yards per play. Michigan St. has similar defensive numbers to Illinois who held Michigan to 7 points last week. When you add everything up, Michigan St. is somewhat better at the line of scrimmage than Michigan. Michigan St. fits a situation that is 535-407-29 ATS at 57% with nearly 1,000 games in the sample size. Make the play on Michigan St.

This should be one of the better games on the schedule as Penn St. brings their unbeaten 6-0 record to Wisconsin tonight. Penn St. has legit National Championship aspirations as the Nitany Lions rank #8 in both offense and defense in yards per play. It is hard to believe that this will be just the 2nd time in 11 years that Penn St. has played at Wisconsin. Many will believe that Penn St. off their bye week after a narrow escape vs. USC 33-30 will have a bigger edge but they are 4-9 SU in their last 13 games off a bye, and just 5-8 ATS. They also have a huge showdown vs. Ohio St. next week, and may have one eye on that game. Penn St. has been poor as they are 0-5 ATS when they take the field as a 5-0 team or better. Wisconsin has been extremely tough as a conference home dog of more than 2 points, when they have a winning percentage of .700 or better entering the game. They are 13-0 ATS in this situation since 1991! Make the play on Wisconsin.

This game will be bypassed by most bettors with each team coming into the game at 1-6. Utah St. had a pair of games vs Utah and USC where they scored just 21 total points. They are averaging 35ppg outside of those two step up games. Overall these teams are bad all-around, but the biggest edge on the field is Utah St. ranks #49 in offensive yards per play, while the Wyoming defense ranks #122. Wyoming generally holds a bigger home field advantage because of the altitude, but Utah St. plays at altitude as well. I like Utah St.

James Madison played their worst game of the season last week in a 28-14 loss to Georgia Southern. They are likely going to be taking out some of those frustrations this week against a very bad Southern Miss team that is The Golden Eagles were once a mid-major power in NCAAF as they finished with a winning record for 18 straight years. The program has since collapsed as they are 58-96 SU since 2012 and 1-6 SU this year. Southern Miss has the #122 ranked defense in the country and the #95 ranked offense, going against the #25 ranked JMU defense, and #35 ranked offense. This game fits a pair of situations in favor of JMU. They fit a 298-216 ATS situation, as well as a 695-583 ATS situation. Make the play on James Madison.

I guess everyone is going to find out about Navy this week when they meet at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. Navy comes into this game as the unbeaten team at 6-0. The Navy defense is not as good as it has looked as they have limited opposing offenses to 5.5 yards per play. The issue is the schedule of offenses Navy has faced on average ranks #115. Notre Dame should be able to move the ball at will vs. Navy. Notre Dame is limiting opponents to 4.2 yards per play which ranks #5 in the nation. I like Notre Dame in this one.

The Pittsburgh Panthers won 3 games last season, and were beaten by double-digits in 7 of those. The Panthers made great use of the transfer portal. They landed QB Eli Holstein ho was at Alabama as a top recruit. Holstein has been better than expected. He has thrown 15 TDs to just 5 INTs at 8.6 yards per attempt. He is also a running threat. Pitt has the #17 ranked defense in the country allowing just 4.6 yards per play. Syracuse landed Ohio St. transfer Kyle McCord and he has been very good on the season. Syracuse does not have a running game and have throw the ball 287 times and run it just 184 times. This one-dimensional offense will be challenged by a deep Pitt defense. Pitt not only has a good defense, they rank #23 in yards per play offensively at 6.3 yards per play. The biggest advantage in this game will be the Pitt offense vs. a poor Syracuse defense. One other overlooked aspect of this game is special teams. Pitt has an NFL kicker that is 28/28 on extra points, and 10/10 on FG's. (he has hit 8/8 from 40+ 3/3 on 50+, with his longest being 58. Syracuse has a big problem kicking. Brady Denaburg and Jadyn Oh are a combined 8/16 on the season, and neither has made one from more than 33 yards out. I rate this edge being worth 3 points. I have the better offense, better defense, and better kicking game at home. I like Pittsburgh in this one.

The story for this game is going to be the weather. Heavy rain, and strong winds up to 30MPH is going to have a lot to say about the outcome. Texas Tech QB Behran Morton likes to throw the ball down field, but the conditions are not going to be favorable for throwing the ball. Morton is averaging a stellar 7.9 yards per attempt on the season, and I don't think he reaches that average in this game. I think the spread is too high for the weather conditions in Lubbock today. Make the play on Baylor.

Army is 6-0 for the first time since 1996, or 28 years ago. They have not played a very difficult schedule to this point, but they have beaten their 6 opponents by a combined score of 238-59. That is an average score of 40-9. East Carolina is not a strong opponent either. The Pirates are 3-3 on the season, and are off a 55-4 loss to Charlotte. Army throws the ball infrequently, but with a lot more success as QB Bryson Daily has thrown for 6 TD's in just 37 attempts. Daily is also a huge threat when he runs the ball as he has generated 738 rushing yards on 107 attempts. The Black Knights have run for over 2200 yards through 6 games. The defense has been equally strong allowing under 10 points per game. Army also fits a situation involving unbeaten teams off a pair of blowout wins that is 55-15-1 ATS. Make the play on Army.

Miami comes into this game at 6-0 to start the season and the Hurricanes potent offense has scored 38 or more points in all 6 games. Miami is averaging 47.7ppg. The Hurricanes allowed just 41 total points in their first 4 games against some bad offensive teams, but they are off of games vs. California and Virginia Tech where they allowed 34, and 38 points. Louisville certainly has a strong offense at 36.2ppg. This game has all the makings of a shootout. The Miami attack is averaging an elite 8.1 yards per play which is # in the nation behind Navy, while the Cardinals are producing 6.9 yards per play which ranks 16th in the country. Both offenses will have a decided advantage hen they have the ball. Make the play over the total.

The UConn Huskies offense has come to life after making a QB switch. Nick Evers completed 51.4% of his passes with 2 TDs and 2 INTs with an average yards per pass at 4.8. Joe Fagnano took over and the offense took off. Fagnano has completed 58.% for 10.2 yards per attempt, and 11 TDs to just 3 INT's, Wake Forest has one of the worst defenses in the country allowing 6.7 yards per play ranking #118. The offense has not been there either ranking #88. Overall UConn has gone 7 years winning 4 or more games just one time, and halfway through the season they have achieved that already, with more to come. Make the play on UConn.

Troy has been a top mid-major the last two years with a combined 23-5 record. Just about all those players are gone, and Troy has dropped off the cliff. The Trojans are 1-5 SU and 0-5 vs. FBS opponents on the season. Troy does not have good numbers on the season, but either does South Alabama. The Jaguars have already lost twice as a favorite this season. These teams are very close in comparing them on both sides of the ball. South Alabama has a slight edge, but not worthy of this size line. I like Troy in this one.

This is going to be a huge game as each enters the contest unbeaten. Ohio St. has an 0.9 yards per play advantage on both sides of the ball. The numbers for Ohio St. are gaudy as the Buckeyes are 5-0 and have out-scored opponents 228-34, but when you look at the total of the 5 lines for their games it is !65.5 points, so they have not faced anyone yet as they have been a -33 point favorite on average in their 5 games. This will be a completely different opponent. Oregon is 14-14 as a home dog, which shows they win a higher percentage of these games vs. a perceived better opponent.From game 6 on a home dog in a game when both teams are unbeaten, and they scored more than 16 points last game are 19-7 ATS, including 8-0 SU and 8-0 ATS since 2014! That is 8 straight dog wins in this situation. Make the play on Oregon.

The Rice Owls will host UT San Antonio on Saturday. The Owls have not looked good in terms of their overall record which sits at 1-4. UT San Antonio sits at 2-3, but neither of these teams have covered a game all season against BS competition as they are a combined 0-8 ATS.  Both of these teams struggle offensively, but if I see a couple of edges for Rice in this game. They are home, and they have the better defense. Rice certainly is positioned better to win and cover here. Make the play on Rice.

I like playing against a team that is off a win as a dog,in particular when they were out-played in that win on the road, and are on the road again. Arkansas St. is averaging just 17.8ppg against FBS opponents. They are really going to have to do a better job scoring to stay in this game vs. a 3-2 Texas St. team that averages 37.8ppg, and just missed beating Arizona St. on the road  in a 3 point loss. The Arkansas St. defense is well below average as well. Arkansas St. is above average on both sides of the ball, and I think this is a 3 TD win for the Bobcats. Make the play on Texas St. Road dogs off a dog win of 3 or fewer points often suffer a letdown as they are 209-248-9 ATS covering just 45.7% of the time. I like Texas St.

This game fits a very strong situation that plays on certain certain home dogs following their bye week. It is 96-61 ATS, with a couple better subsets. Make the play on Central Michigan.

The Washington Huskies will head to Iowa to take on the Hawkeyes. The Washington Huskies are 4-2 on the season, and their two losses have come by a total of 8 points. Washington was not expected to be putting up the numbers they have so far. They are averaging 6.9 yards per play on offense, and the defense has been great allowing just 4.1 yards per play. They have a net 2.8 yards per play. Iowa always has a good defense, but the Washington defense has been better. The Huskies have an advantage on both sides of the ball. They also fit in a strong situation that is 528-402-29 ATS (56.9%) that plays on conference road dogs with a total of 46 or fewer points. Make the play on Washington.

North Carolina has been better offensively with Jacolby Criswell under center, and it has taken the offense from above average to more significantly above average. When you look at the change in offense it leaves Georgia Tech, and North Carolina very similar in terms of production on offense. The dog is this game has a better defense, in North Carolina, and they are also playing at home. Georgia Tech has out-played their stats on defense coming into this game, so their is value on the other side, because a regression is going to occur. I like the home team, with the better defense, getting points. Make the play on North Carolina.

Rutgers started the season 2-0 over a couple of extreme cupcakes with a 44-7 win to open the season and they followed that with a 49-17 win vs. Akron. Those games blended in with their last 3 games shows this team almost a full yard per play below average vs. the 3 decent teams on their schedule. Wisconsin changed QBs and appear to be benefiting from it as Braedyn Locke connected for 351 yards on just 31 pass plays vs. Purdue. This game also fits a 63-39-2 ATS situation which has been better lately at 8-2 ATS in the last 10. Make the play on Wisconsin.

When I saw the total for this game I did a double take. Both of these teams are horrible on offense and decent on defense. Hawaii games are averaging 41ppg on the season and all 4 of their games have played under the total. San Diego St. games are also averaging 41ppg. Their 3 games against FBS teams have all gone under and the Aztecs are averaging 10.3ppg against FBS opponents. Don't see this one getting here. Make the play under the total.

The Duke Blue Devils have defended a lot better than projected coming into this season. Their 5 opponents on the season have each failed to score more than 21 points. The Duke defense is allowing just 4.5 yards per play, one of the best marks in the nation. They enter this game vs. Georgia Tech at 5-0 for the season. Georgia Tech managed just 19 points vs. Louisville last eek, a comparable defense. This is just too many points, and Duke applies to a 57- ATS momentum situation, based in part on their good start to the season. Make the play on Duke.

When I saw the total for this game I did a double take. Both of these teams are horrible on offense and decent on defense. Hawaii games are averaging 41ppg on the season and all 4 of their games have played under the total. San Diego St. games are also averaging 41ppg. Their 3 games against FBS teams have all gone under and the Aztecs are averaging 10.3ppg against FBS opponents. Don't see this one getting here. Make the play under the total.

Louisiana Lafayette is 3-1 and have been riding the improvement of QB Ben Wooldridge. The Ragin Cajuns have scored at least 33 points in all 4 of their games and come into this contest at 3-1. Southern Miss was once a mid-major power with 18 straight winning seasons.Since that point, the Golden Eagles are just 58-93 SU. This season they are 0-3 vs. FBS teams and have been out-scored 124-31. Make the play on Louisiana Lafayette.

The Ole Miss Rebels looked invincible until they went to Kentucky last week. The Wildcats held the Rebels to 17 points on their way to a huge upset win. Just as a footnote, South Carolina beat Kentucky 31-6. South Carolina has already covered their 2 games as a dog this season, and fit into a very strong situation today. Conference home dogs of 4.5 or more points off a home win and are on 10 or more days rest, and facing a team on regular 6 days of rest or less are 41-10 ATS. Make the play on South Carolina.

The Penn St. Nittany Lions are generally a good team to play on. They have consistently beaten the line since the start of the 2016 where they are 62-38-4 ATS, and 47-25-3 ATS to a line of -21 or less. (24-8-1 ATS in their last 33 in this role. Illinois has had 12 straight losing seasons. Penn St. won its biggest game of the season so far 31-12 over West Virginia. Illinois is coming off a big overtime win vs. Nebraska as an 8.5 point dog. I think this is a huge letdown spot for the Illini, and I will back Penn St. in this one.

I wouldn't expect a lot of defense as both these teams are significantly below average on that side of the ball. The biggest area of exploitation in this game will be the North Texas passing attack destroying a horrible Tulsa pass defense and secondary. The Mean Green put the ball up in the air over 40 times a game. The North Texas bad pass defense is not going to be taken advantage of because Tulsa QB Kirk Francis is quite bad. I also have the Mean Green in a situation that is 211-138 ATS. Make the play on North Texas.

Michigan is off to a 3-1 start, and the Wolverines have not scored more than 30 points in a game yet this season. They beat USC because of some long runs, as well as a defensive touchdown. Alex Orji does not look like a capable QB as he threw for a paltry 22 yards. Minnesota already has 2 shutouts on the season, and their defense is elite. They have a similar problem as Michigan, as the offense has not been good at all, and is way below average. Totals in the Big-10 of fewer than 36 points are 8-3 to the under. These teams pace their offense as slower than a normal paced game, which will limit possessions in this game. I like the under.

The Kansas St. Wildcats have really been a strong team when they played a poor game their last time out. Kansas St. is 53-27-1 ATS after losing their last game by 10 or more points. (11-2 ATS in their last 13). Make the play on Kansas St.

These teams have generally both been under teams, and I like the numbers in that regard tonight. Washington has allowed just 41 total points all season in 4 games at an elite 3.8 yards per play, and have generated 11 sacks on the season. Washington is 45-29-1 to the under since 2018, including 10-2 to a total of 47 or fewer points. These teams also fit in a historically good play on the under that has gone 84-37-7 to the under. Make the play under the total.

The Miami, Fla. Hurricanes look like a National Championship caliber team. They have dominated the line of scrimmage through 4 games by averaging 8.9 yards per play, while the defense is allowing just 4.5. That means they have had a 4.4 yard per play advantage over their 4 opponents. The result is 52.3ppg and allowing 10.3ppg. Miami QB Cam Ward is in his 5th year, and it appears he has saved the best for last. He has thrown for 1,439 yards with 11 TDs and 1 INT. The Canes have had 8 different players score a TD, and 5 different players have also scored a TD. The defense has 8 INTs in 4 games. The mismatch here is much larger than the line. Make the play on Miami, Fla.

The Temple Owls had a stretch of 6 seasons where they finished at .500 or better, but since then the Owls are 11-36 SU. The Owls offense over their first 2 games showed them scoring just 14 total points. It was pretty clear that QB Forrest Brock was not the answer. He was replaced by Evan Simon and the passing game went from 4.9 yards per attempt with Forrest Brock under center to 8 yards per attempt under Simon. The 14 points from the first two games have gone to 65 points the last two with Simon under center. The Owls are -10 in turnovers, but that is likely to slow down, so this team is better than they have shown. Army is just 10-18 ATS as a road favorite over many years. Temple has already played Navy, so they gained valuable experience against the triple option, and teams that have seen it already this year tend to do much better the 2nd time around. Make the play on Temple.

New Mexico is allowing 47ppg on the season, and have the worst defense in all of the FBS. They are allowing 565 yards per contest. Fresno St. has a good defense that should slow down the New Mexico offense, which is not too bad. The driving factor in this selection is an 89-47 ATS situation in favor of the Bulldogs. Make the play on Fresno St.

The Ole Miss Rebels have one of their best teams ever, led by QB Jaxon Dart. He is 73-88 for 1,172 yards 8 TDs and 1 INT. Parish and Jones are each gaining 7.5 yards per carry at least, with 9 more TDs. Defensively they are allowing just 4.1 yards per play. Ole Miss can strike quick, and points should not be an issue here as the Rebels have out-scored their 3 opponents 160-9. This game also fits a situation that 41-12 ATS. Make the play on Mississippi.

The Oklahoma Sooners have had a lot of great QB play for several years running. I don't think Jackson Arnold is on that list this year. His numbers are severely below the average of the competition he has faced in 3 games this season. That will change some with a couple WR's coming off injury. Tennessee is legit. Tennessee is a bona fide National Champion contender. The Vols are well above average on both sides of the ball. This will be the best offense and defense the Sooners have seen all year, and they aren't up for the task here. Make the play on Tennessee.

The Liberty Flames have been 6-6 or better in their 6 seasons since becoming a member of the FBS. They went 10-1 in 2020, and 13-1 last year. This program has become known to the betting public as a very good mid-major team. The perception is higher coming off a 13-1 season especially starting 3-0 this year. The Flames however may not have their best offensive player in RB Quinton Cooley. He injured his back last game. The Flames have played Campbell, New Mexico St. and UTEP. They are -46.5 points below the line set in their 3 games, and have seriously under-performed, and I don't think this team is up to meeting expectations. East Carolina has allowed fewer than 13ppg. East Carolina also fits in a 59-37-3 ATS situation (13-5 ATS lately). Make the play on East Carolina.

Houston hasn't been as good as they were winning 12 games in 2021, and slipped to 4-8 last year. They haven't had fewer wins since 2004 (taking out the covid season where they played just 8 games and won 3). The Cougars lost to UNLV 27-7, and it looked like a horrible loss, but UNLV is off a win at Kansas. The Cougars then went out and just missed beating Oklahoma as a 4 TD dog. They lost 16-12. They blew out Rice 33-7. Cincinnati is usually a strong defensive team, but far from it this season. Houston has a very good defense and this game looks winnable for the Cougars. Make the play on Houston.

UConn scored 63 points against Merrimack, which is the most points they have scored in their history. The Huskies are playing on offense at a much faster pace this season, and there games should turn out to be higher scoring. Duke is also doing the same. This is also backed by a 312-241 system to the over. Make the play over the total.

Troy has the type of program where they have a few good years, then kind of tank as they rebuild again. Troy is 23-5 the last 2 years, but have started 0-2 and has under performed considerably. This is one of those Troy rebuilding years. Iowa is going to be pissed as they lost to Iowa St. 20-19 on a late FG. The Iowa defense is top 5 in the country, and should hold Troy out of the end-zone. Iowa has a new offensive coordinator and Iowa will move the ball freely here. Troy fits a situation based on 0-2 teams that have severely under performed which is 21-40-2 ATS. Make the play on Iowa.

The Oregon Ducks and the Oregon St. Beavers have been playing each other for a long time. This is one of the best rivalries in college football. Oregon has not looked like the team everyone thought they would be. They struggled vs Idaho, and had to come from behind vs. Boise St. to win it late. They lost the battle at the line of scrimmage as Boise St. out-gained them. The ground game is usually a telling sign when teams meet and Oregon ranks in the bottom 10% in running the ball this season. Meanwhile the Beavers are running wild averaging over 300 yards a game, good for a top 5 rating. It may be a surprise but Oregon St. is 19-15-1 ATS in the last 35 meetings. This is Oregon St.'s biggest game of the year and it is at home where they are 17-2 SU in their last 19 games here. They are also 16-3 ATS in their last 19 as well. Make the play on Oregon St.

Boston College got hat looked like a huge win in their opener beating highly ranked Florida St.28-13.Florida St. is now 0-22 to start the season. Missouri has bettors taking notice as they have yet to be scored upon but to see reality those games came against Murray St. and Buffalo. Boston College has proven they are better than expected, and the resistance Missouri will get in this game, neither of the first two games has prepared them for it. Make the play on Boston College.

LSU looks like a very mediocre team so far. They were beaten by USC, and then last week they only led 24-221 vs. Nichols St. before pulling away. South Carolina looked awful beating Old Dominion by just 4 points. The Gamecocks came back strong as they impressively beat Kentucky 31-6 as a 9.5 point dog. The Gamecocks will be in the LSU QB's face all game as they have 10 sacks already and this will be Garrett Nussmeier's first road game. Several strong betting systems favoring the Gamecocks as well. Make the play on South Carolina.

Florida St. was supposed to be a top 5 team coming into this season, but their 0-2 start has been hard to swallow for fans. The offense has averaged just 17ppg. Memphis has allowed just 17 points in their two games against subpar teams. I think the winner here scores somewhere in the 20s which would max out the total high point at 57. I don't see both teams able to push this one over the total, and with a game situation that is 119-71 to the under, I will make the play on this one under the total.

Arizona played with little energy in last week's game vs. Northern Arizona. That has quickly help bettors forget they put up 61 points in their opener. Tulane ran over Kansas St. last week. They were significantly out-played, but were saved by a 60 yard 4th quarter fumble return TD. QB Avery Johnson carries a lot of issues into this game that he may not be as good as they hoped. I think the line here is very inflated, and I would not be surprised if Arizona wins. Make the play on Arizona.

This pick is based on a long term inning situation. The result is Ohio.U fits into a 196-326-6 ATS situation. That situation is also 8-3-1 ATS in game . I like South Alabama in this one.

This game is based in large part by a huge long term situation. The situation is based on a conference dog of 7 or more points with a low total of 45 or fewer points. The dogs have emerged from these games going 259-176-17 ATS, which is 60% winners. Make the play on Temple.

This game is based in large part by a huge long term situation. The situation is based on a conference dog of 7 or more points with a low total of 45 or fewer points. The dogs have emerged from these games going 259-176-17 ATS, which is 60% winners. Make the play on Michigan St.

This game is based in large part by a huge long term situation. The situation is based on a conference dog of 7 or more points with a low total of 45 or fewer points. The dogs have emerged from these games going 259-176-17 ATS, which is 60% winners. Make the play on South Carolina.

The Georgia Bulldogs have not lost a regular season game since November 7th, 2020. That has them at 40 straight regular season wins. That streak will not end on Saturday. Georgia is looked upon by bettors as a team that will absolutely light up a team like Tennessee Tech. History has weighed in on this and here are the little known facts. When Georgia plays as a -2.5 to -11.5 favorite they are 101-68-1 ATS. These are the games you see the full Georgia effort in. However, we see a team with a different motivation when they play the supreme cupcakes on their schedule. When Georgia is favored by 40 or more points they are a woeful 3-16-1 ATS, which includes 0-11-1 ATS since 2016. The betting public sees this game from a whole different set of lights, as 73% of the public are backing Georgia, as is usually the case. Make the play on Tennessee Tech.

The Memphis Tigers easily won last week 40-0 over an FCS team in North Alabama. Memphis has upgraded their defensive coordinator, and played better than the statistical match up would indicate, but hard to have a good take away on a game that was not going to be competitive. The Memphis offense is pass oriented and they spent a lot of last week putting the ball in the air. Troy is not even close to what they were a year ago, and lost as a 7.5 point home favorite to Nevada. Perhaps more ominous is the weather for this game. While it will be sunny and in the 70s, the winds are expected to be sustained at 15 MPH with gusts to 25 MPH, so not ideal conditions for a team that likes to pass, and take shots downfield. That will force more running plays, which isn't what Memphis wants to do. I think the total is too high here, and will make the play under the total.

There is just so much distance between these teams. Akron has fallen on hard times as the Zips since the start of the 2019 season own a woeful 7-48 record. They are 0-8 vs. Power Conference teams, which includes 5 games vs. the Big-10, and 3 vs. the SEC. The zips have been outscored in those games 392-62 or by 49-7.8 or an average of 41.2ppg. Not really much else to say. Make the play on Rutgers.

The Michigan Wolverines will have their biggest test of the season on Saturday at noon vs. Texas. Just some numbers to throw out there for food for thought. Michigan has held all of their last 24 opponents to 27 or fewer points at home in the Big House. They have also scored 229 or more points in all but 1 of their last 17 here. Those numbers put a lot of distance between themselves and Texas here, more than I think what a fair line looks like in this one. They have also won 22 straight home games. They are not a home dog often, but when they are a home dog from 5.5 points and up they are 5-2 ATS. That goes back to 1995, so this is just the 8th time in almost 30 years they have been this big of a dog. The numbers shout wolverines in this one. Make the play on Michigan.

Miami, O. won the MAC Championship last season with a top notch defense that allowed fewer than 16 points per game. They might not match those numbers this season, but the defense is still going to be strong. Northwestern saw their offense held to 14 or fewer points 6 times last year. This is a team that ran one of the slowest offenses last season, and new Northwestern offensive coordinator Lujan comes over from South Dakota St. where he won 2 FCS Championships. His offense runs an even slower pace that Northwestern, so plays are going to be limited, and I think both defenses will be the best side of the ball. Make the play under the total.

The Pittsburgh Panthers struggles from a season ago can be chalked up to QB play. Their two main QB`s completed less than 50% of their passes, at just a woeful 5.5 yards per attempt. There was some foreshadowing of what was to come when Nate Yarnell took over at QB late last season. He completed almost 2/3 of his passes at 7.7 yards per attempt. I think Pitt is quite underrated, and they always have a high level defense. Yarnell was a top 5 QB coming out of college and the upside is high this season. Make the play on Pittsburgh.

I think the Georgia Bulldogs will be playing with a huge chip on its shoulder this season. They open at home with Clemson, and return a Heisman hopeful QB. This is a huge game as one of these teams will be 0-1 and may have to win out to get a good spot in the National Championship race that now includes 12 teams. Clemson returns just 4 starters on defense, and could really struggle here. I think Georgia is the #1 team in the country this year, and competitive games bring out their best. Georgia is now 40-15 ATS in their last 55 games when not posted as a 21 point favorite or more. Make the play on Georgia.

Penn St. has vowed to take advantage of the skill, athleticism, and speed of their talented WR core. The Nittany Lions have a measure of protection for taking chances as the defense is going to among the best in the nation once again.Will that be enough? It is one thing to say it, but you have to do it. West Virginia has a tough and talented front 5, and a secondary that is very talented. The Mountaineers have a strong pass rush so this is no picnic for Penn St. This game could go either way. I will back West Virginia in this one.

I like the situation here for Wisconsin. They have always played their best football at home vs. the MAC. The Badgers are 25-0 SU and 16-9 ATS against the MAC as a home favorite. MAC opponents have scored an average of 7.2ppg against Wisconsin in this situation. I also have several situations in favor of the Badgers in this one. Make the play on Wisconsin.

Monday January 8th, 2024

NCAA FB Top Side Play · [287] Washington Huskies   +4.5   -110

 Mr. East   Mon Jan 8th, 2024 7:30pm EST   Win/Loss Undecided
Expert Preview: MREAST NCAAF NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP 1/8
Expert Analysis: It is fitting that a pair of 14-0 teams will face each other for the NCAAF National Championship. It comes down to the best defense Washington will have faced all season vs, the best offense Michigan will have faced all-season. Looking back at 2022, Michigan brought a defense into their playoff game vs, an elite offense in TCU and was promptly torched for 51 points. That defense allowed just 13.4ppg. The PAC-12 is all about offense. The Big-10 conference games this season averaged just 45.5 total points per game. The Pac-12 at 57.8ppg. Clearly, these teams have faced different paths to get here. Washington gave up 32ppg against the top 5 offenses they faced this season, which had an average rank of #4 in the nation. The Michigan offense ranks at #12. The Washington offense vs. the top 4 defenses they faced put up no fewer than 34 points in any of the 4 games, and those defenses ranked on average #16. The Michigan defense did not face a top 10 offense all season, but against the top 4 offenses they did face they allowed 18ppg and those offenses ranked an average of #32. This looks a lot like the numbers from the TCU game a couple of years ago. Michigan didn`t beat Alabama the game was tied after 60 minutes due to Alabama miscues from the center position. Milroe was sacked 5 times which was an integral part of the Michigan win. Michigan ranks #20 in sacks per game at 2.7 per contest, but the Washington offensive line is very strong at pass blocking, and Penix is quick to make decisions and get the ball out, and was sacked just 10 times in 14 games. Like TCU a couple of years ago, Washington has weapons all over the field in the passing game. Polk and Odunze have combined for 2,675 receiving yards and 22 TDs on the season, and are generating 17.5 yards per catch. Washington has 5 different receivers who have caught passes good for 45 yards or more. Dillon Johnson was injured last game, but all indications are he is ready to go for this one. He has provided 1,162 yards on just 222 carries, and 16 TDs. He is a threat that will keep Michigan honest, and prevent a light box so they can`t commit extra players to slow down the passing attack. The Michigan offense has played 7 games vs. top 20 defenses, but that includes Nebraska who is rated #8, and the reason is the lack of quality offenses in the Big-10. Rutgers and Maryland are in that mix as well, and none of those teams would be seen with those rankings in the Pac-12. Nuetral site games with a line of -4.5 to -7 show the favorite at 145-169-8 ATS, and cover just 45% of the time. Specifically at -4.5 they are 21-33 ATS. both cases show an average line value of 2 points for the dog, so this one should be -2.5 based on historical numbers, and at 4.5 it crosses key numbers of 3, and 4. The 2 points here, because of where the line is has more value crossing a pair of key numbers. The line value on the dog when a pair of teams meet that are both 11-0 or better rises to 2.40 for the dog. McCarthy has been very efficient in his last 5 games, but Michigan has become a run oriented tea. He has attempted just 109 passes for 751 total yards. They have run 193 times and passed just 109 times. Washington may come out heavy in the box, and make McCarthy throw more, which he is capable of doing. Harbaugh has been out-coached facing unbeaten teams where he is 11-21-1 ATS. A team that beats Alabama by 7 or more points in their previous game is 10-20 ATS in their next game if posted as a favorite. (0-6 ATS if favored). I like Washington in this one.

Michigan -1.5

This game is going to come down to the Iowa ultra elite defense vs a Tennessee offense that averages 31.5ppg. Tennessee faced 4 elite defenses this season and it did not go well. They scored 20 vs. Texas A&M, 20 vs. Alabama, 7 vs. Missouri, and 10 vs. Georgia, or an average of 14.8ppg. Iowa has a better defense than all of those teams, as well as one of the best special teams units in college football. The issue in this game for Iowa is Superstar Cooper Dejean will not play for Iowa which is a huge loss, on special teams as well. Iowa's top 2 opponents Michigan (26), Penn St. (31), scored the most points, and that was with DeJean. Iowa is going to have to score some points to cover this game and it will take more than the 12ppg they have averaged in their las 7 games. Iowa did not score against Penn St, or Michigan. Make the play on Tennessee.

Oregon comes into this game with 2 losses, both to playoff team Washington by 3 points. This team is almost entirely in tact, and they are coming to play, so an "A" effort is likely. Liberty played one of the 5 easiest schedules in the country. Looking for a quality win? There are none. The Oregon speed, physicality, size, depth, and physicality are all much better than Liberty. My line on this game comes up at Oregon -21.5, and I will play the line value here. Make the play on Oregon.

Most of the talk regarding this Bowl is LSU QB Daniels opting out. He is certainly worth a lot, but otherwise the LSU team is mostly in tact. What most don`t realize is LSU has an elite running attack. They average 6.3 yards per attempt to a schedule of teams that allow 4.3. Wisconsin averaged just 16.8ppg over its last 7 games. LSU has deadly receivers with Malik Nabers (86 catches, 1,546 yards, 14 touchdowns), Brian Thomas Jr. (60-1,079-15) and Kyren Lacy (24-463-7) could give UWs secondary fits. They won`t afford to load up the box and allow these pass catches space. Lost in the Daniels opt out is Wisconsin will be missing their top RB, top 2 WRs, and center. A limited offense is going to be further limited. Make the play on LSU.

This game fits a Bowl situation that is 24-4 to the over. Make the play over the total.