Both these teams needed to win their last game to get to 6-6, and it is an opportunity to close the season, with a positive. There is an interesting division, with both the Maryland offense, and the BC defense, that seems to dictate which way to go here. Maryland played 6 games vs mediocre or bad defenses, and averaged 40ppg. They also faced 6 teams with above average or elite defenses, and averaged 14.3ppg. That spells trouble vs a BC defense that was similar. BC struggled against above average offenses, and allowed 37.3ppg, but against mediocre offenses, they allowed 6.8ppg. The BC offense is poor, but Maryland`s offense is going to really struggle here. Make the play on BC.

What a turn of events for this Miami,O. team. They opened the season at 0-6 and could of easily packed it in, but went on to win 6 straight for a Bowl bid. They certainly did not have any big wins, but Bowl games are about the team feeling, motivation, and they certainly have the edge here. Miss St. is 5-7, is only in a Bowl because of the volume of bowl games is greater than deserving teams. They can`t even get to.500 with a win, and after a schedule of big SEC games, I can hardly see them bringing their season stats to this game. This has been the case throughout Bowl history, as teams that are .770 or less, and favored in a December Bowl game their bowl game by more than 14 points are 0-12 ATS since 1980. They have lost 5 of the 12 games straight up as an average of a -16 point favorite. We have already witnessed this in 2016, as Idaho, a 16 point underdog, won easily outright over Colorado St. I see a similar outcome here. Make the play on Miami,Ohio.

It has been a record setting year for Troy, as their 9-3 record ties for the most wins in their FBS history, and their .750 winning percentage is their best. Things started great as they opened the season at 8-1, with the lone loss coming at Clemson by a scant 6 points. They were at one point 4-0-1 ATS through 5 games, but fell from there finishing 2-5 ATS in their last 7, dropping 2 of their last 3 straight up. Ohio U. nearly pulled an upset of their own in the MAC Championship game, and a late interception, on a potential go ahead drive was stopped by an INT in a 29-23 loss to 13-0 W. Michigan. Ohio, U. was blistered for 56 points vs Texas St. in their opener, but not a single team scored 30 on them the rest of the season. That includes a pair of p-5 conference teams, Toledo, and W. Michigan. Both defenses will be the best units on the field as each offense is limited. This game also fits a pair of bowl situations that have been 28-6, and 14-2, both to the under. Make the play on the under in this one.

This game fits 2 Bowl specific situations, one is 28-6 and the other is 27-7 (completely different situations, just very similar results). Make the play on the under.

This may be the last Bowl in the FBS for Idaho, as they are are stepping down to the FCS for the start of the 2018 season. This should be a highly motivated spot for Idaho, who could match a team record 9 wins if they can come away with the big upset here. They are playing in Boise,ID in their home state, and their 2 appearances in this Bowl, were both wins. The Vandals lost 4 games all season, and all 4 were to teams that are in Bowls, and combine to have just 11 losses on the season. The bad news is, all 8 of their wins came against a team with a losing record. They do enter this game however having covered 7 straight games. Colorado St. has also covered 7 straight games and closed on an offensive tear vs some very good teams, beating San Diego St., Air Force, and N. Mexico, while scoring 158 points, or 52.7ppg. Double digit dogs that allow more than 29ppg are 14-2 ATS in a Bowl game. December Bowl teams with a winning percentage of .770 or less and are favored by more than 14 points, are 0-11 ATS, having lost outright in 4 of them! One of them was this same Idaho team, in this same Bowl beating Southern Miss as a 17 point dog 42-35. de ja vu?

Make the play on Idaho.

When a bowl game lines up a pair of teams, and neither are from a power-5 conference, and there is an outlier total (less than 50 or greater than 70), the under is 14-1. Make the play on the under.

There is no doubt that LA Lafayette will be the school with more fannies in the seats as the New Orleans Bowl is right in their back yard. They are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS at the Superdome in this Bowl, but all those teams finished the season at 8-4. This is not a team anything resembling those teams. They own just 5 wins vs FBS teams and have beaten just one team above .500 (Arkansas St.). Southern Miss is also 6-6, but match up well here, as the Lafayette offense is much below average, and the worst of their defense is against the pass where S. Miss is above average, and S. Miss is one of the healthiest teams in the Bowls coming into this contest. S. Miss owns big wins over Kentucky, and LA Tech to get here. Lafayette is in a brutal Bowl situation that is 13-44 ATS. Make the play on S. Miss.

The Toledo Rockets and the Appalachian St. Mountaineers will both be looking for a win to complete what would then be a 10 win season. There has never been a game between these teams, but there is some history. Appalachian St. Coach Scott Satterfield spent a year as Toledo`s QB coach, and passing game coordinator. Appalachian St. runs out of the triple option, and that is a tough system to defend, and it is purely a ball control offense. Teams running out of this set, are 29-14 to the under in Bowl games. The Mountaineers have allowed just 10 passing TD`s all season, and has picked off 20 passes this season. App St. set a Sun Belt Conference record allowing jut 94 points in 8 games. Teams facing each other, and both are not from a power-5 conference in a Bowl game are 14-1 to the under when the total is not extreme (meaning not less than 50, and not greater than 70). Make the play on the under.

central Florida is the only team since 2004 to go win less the previous year, and make a Bowl the following year. UCF has now done it twice! Arkansas St. opened the season a dreadful 0-4 SU/ATS. It certainly appeared their string of 5 straight winning seasons was coming to a close. While losses to Toledo, Auburn, and Utah St. were not so unexpected, a loss to C. Arkansas made things look ugly. The Red Woves resoundingly turned things a round and finished at 7-1 the rest of the way, 5 points from 8-0. They averaged beating teams by 17ppg, and allowed just 15.2ppg. Central Florida may have made a huge turnaround, but their 6 wins came against 5 FBS teams that were a combined 18-42 SU, with no team better than 4-8, and a win vs a losing FCS team, hardly a resume that jumps out as says solid favorite for this game. Arkansas St. fits a Bowl situation that is 96-58-2 ATS. Make the play on Arkansas St.

This is one of the most popular games in NCAAF, as there are so many retired vets brought up on this game, as well as National interest from many. Army is 6-5 on the season, and will go bowling for the first time since 2010, and the 2nd time since 1996. Shockingly, this is just the 3rd time since 1980, that both these teams come into this game with a winning record. Army ranks #2 in the nation on defense behind Michigan, but with a pathetic schedule facing a pair of teams well below the FBS, and loaded with cupcakes, this team is hardly as good as the numbers. Offensively they went for 60 in 3 really lopsided and disadvantaged opponents, but just 15ppg otherwise. Navy lost their QB and top RB against Temple, but this is an offense that isn`t dependent on any one player, but precision execution. The game opened at Navy -11.5, but the betting line on Army is long, as many think this is the year they break out of a 14 game losing streak. I don`t see it. Navy has a poor pass defense, but are at least average vs the run, and strong against the option, as they see it every day as does Army. Navy wasn`t a top 25 team for no reason, and while they may not be now, they are truly more than 4 points better than a poor Army team, with fake stats. Navy is 13-0 SU and 11-2 ATS vs Army in this series with a line from -3 to -14. Make the play on Navy.

Arkansas St. went into last week with a 15 game conference winning streak, and despite out-gaining their opponent 521-292 they lost by 5 points. That is a misleading result, and one that should serve them well here. Arkansas St. is holding their conference opponents to -72 yards per game from their average, while averaging +92 yards in those games. Texas St. is -184 yards per game in conference play, have dropped 7 straight, and statistically are among the worst team in the FBS on both sides of the ball. Texas St. has been out-scored 137-31 the last 3 weeks. Since 1999 a team that has been out-scored by 100 or more points in their last 3 games, and playing as a 21 point or more hime dog, are 9-18 ATS, losing by 33ppg, and have been shutout 7 times! Make the play on Arkansas St.

The Colorado Buffalos have had their best season in a long time, finishing the regular season at 10-2. They lost back to back games at Michigan, and USC, but they come with a big "what if". QB Sefo Liufau was injured early in the 3rd quarter against Michigan, 28-24. He was picking apart one of the best defenses in the country throwing for 9.8 yards per attempt, 3 TD's and 0 INT's. He went out after the first 2nd half drive, and Colorado did not score again. That carried over to USC, and the Buff's lost 21-17 without Liufau. You can argue, they may have gone 12-0 with him. Washington will be under severe pressure as they have to win and perhaps win big, to secure a spot in the four team playoff to a National Championship. I think there is some hidden value here, as Liufau was strong vs one of the strongest defenses, and can keep Colorado in the game here. Make the play on Colorado.

The Western Michigan Broncos are in rarified air at 12-0 for the first time ever, as they take on the Ohio, U. Bobcats for not only the MAC Championship, but for a berth in the Cotton Bowl. This group of seniors were 1-11 just 3 years ago, so they have come a long way. W. Michigan has dismantled Ohio,U. over the last 2 seasons, winning by a combined 56 points, and most everyone thinks this game is going to be a breeze. If history has anything to say about it, then W. Michigan is in big trouble. When an NCAAF Championship Game features a team that on the season has a winning percentage of .250 or more greater than their opponent (100.0 to 66.7% here or 33.3%), they are 6-15 ATS. If the line is from -6.5 to -20.5 they are 0-11 ATS. What is more amazing is the fact that these teams are also 7-4 SU as an average -13.6 point favorite! They have lost straight up as -14.5 favorites twice, and as a -20.5 point favorite. Make the play on Ohio, U.

The Clemson Tigers at 10-1 on the season have their playoff fate in their own hands. A win vs SC, and an ACC Championship game will put the Tigers in the final 4. South Carolina has bounced back from a 3-9 season, to be Bowl eligible at 6-5, despite being out-scored on the season. Part of the reason is they avoided the top 3 teams in the SEC West this year Alabama, Auburn, and LSU. They have been 1-8 SU on the Sec road the last 2 years, with the only win coming vs Vanderbilt 13-10. They have averaged just 11ppg in their 4 road games this year in the SEC. Clemson is out-gaining opponents by 172 yards per game, and like the SEC opponents that thwarted the pedestrian SC attack this year on the road, look for Clemson to pitch a shutout here, or close to one. Make the play on Clemson.

This is a tough spot for Marshall, which has been a solid program over the years. Marshall was 33-8 SU over the last 3 years, but graduation losses were heavy, and this young team is just 3-8 on the season, and still has a lot of growing up to do. The Herd is well below average on both sides of the ball. W. Kentucky was 3-33 SU in their first 3 years at the FBS level, but turned things around swiftly, and have had 6 straight winning seasons since, and win here will give them an opportunity for another 10 win season in their Bowl game. The Hilltoppers are an elite passing team, which is a major weakness with this Marshall team. W. kentucky is averaging better than 50ppg in their last 6, and has won their last 4 games by an average of 37.5ppg. This game also has a situation that favors WKY at 78-35 ATS, and this should be a colossal blowout. Make the play on W. Kentucky.

No surprise that Navy once again has the triple option rolling, as they have averaged 312 yards on the ground per contest. The Middies have now had a winning season in 12 of their last 13 campaigns, and only 18 teams in the FBS have recorded more wins. They are 25-5 SU in their last 30 games, and when they play in Texas, as I have mentioned many times, they dominate. SMU has made considerable progress after closing out the last 2 seasons with a combined 3 wins. They are still a very pedestrian team that has allowed 31 or more points 8 times this season, and better than 40 on 4 occasions. This game also fits a 57-17 ATS situation, make the play on Navy.

Alabama is 58-4 SU at home under Nick Saban. His teams signature is the defense, always has been since day 1. His teams at home have been next to impossible to score on allowing 9.4ppg in 60 played here. That has led to a 16-42-2 O/U mark under Saban at home, including 8-25-2 O/U in conference games. When the total is below 49, is it is in this one vs Auburn, and they are not favored by 34 or more points, with a total of less than 49 they are 0-14 O/U. Make the play on the under.

Kansas and Kansas St. have been rivals for a very long time, but among rivalry games, this one has been brutally one-sided. Kansas is better than last year's 0-12 team, but not much, as they will conclude the 2016 season winning 3 games or less for the 7th straight season. It has been ugly for the Jayhawks on the conference road where they have won 1 time or less in 18 of their last 19 seasons, and have now dropped 35 consecutive road conference tilts, where they are 10-24-1 ATS, losing by an average of just about 30ppg. Kansas fits an uglier 4-34 ATS situation for this game, and owns a 27-58-2 ATS mark in their last 87 as a road dog. Kansas St. meanwhile is in a 94-49 ATS situation here. Kansas St. is on a merciless 7-0 SU/ATS run in this series, winning by 32.4ppg. Make the play on Kansas St.

Tommy Tuberville may be in trouble at Cincinnati. His Bearcats have had a very tough season. It has become pretty evident that his team has quit on him. The Bearcats last 4 games have produced a grand total of 26 points of offense, and in their 7 losses they have averaged less than 12ppg. Tulsa has an 8-3 record losing to just Ohio St., Houston, and Navy, all top 25 teams. Outside the top 25 they are a perfect 8-0 and 6-2 ATS, and averaging nearly 50ppg, and have piled up an average of 555 yards of offense. They certainly can score enough here to get well over the top vs a team that has completely lost its way. Tulsa has dropped 5 straight at the hands of Cincinnati. including an 11 point loss last year. The Golden Hurricanes have their sight on a 10 win season, if they win here, and win their Bowl game, so plenty to play for, and revenge is just an extra sweet reason. Make the play on Tulsa.

This game fits a totals situation that is 232-151 ATS, make the play on the UNDER.

This game fits a totals situation that is 232-151 ATS, make the play on the UNDER.

This game fits a totals situation that is 232-151 ATS, make the play on the UNDER.

Sometimes when you look at a game, keeping things simple are the easiest approach. Looking at this game, Navy has run the triple option forever, and there is no secret as to what they are going to do. They run the ball 85% of the time. Their success is measured by staying ahead of down and distance. This year they are averaging over 300 yards a game on the ground, at 5.5 yards a carry vs a schedule of teams allowing 4.8. East Carolina has struggled against the run all season, but as bad as the numbers look, they are even worse. They have held 5 teams to less than 200 yards on the ground (you'll see the significance of this further down). Those teams were as follows. Uconn a team that averages -1.0ypc than the opponents allowance per carry, W. Carolina a 2-8 FCS team, SC who is -1.1 yards per attempt vs the defenses they faced, Virginia Tech -0.4, and Cincinnati -0.6. Those teams generated 695 rushing yards or 139 a game. Then there are these teams. NC St. -0.2 (215), C. Fla. -0.3 (217), SMU -0.0 (242), S. Fla +2.1 (306), Tulsa +0.7 (345). They have faced just 3 plus rushing teams on the season and gave up 962 rushing yards, all over 300ypg. Enter Navy and the triple option, would it be fair to say Navy has an 80% or better chance of getting to 200? I ask that because the last 18 times Navy has rushed for 200 or more yards they are 18-0 SU and 13-4-1 ATS (11-1-1 ATS lately). Navy is as follows in all games: rush for 200+  68-45 ATS, 225+ 65-42 ATS, 250+ 64-34 ATS, 275+ 56-27 ATS, 300+ 51-23 ATS. They certainly are in a very favorable spot. Make the play on Navy.

Wyoming has had a break out season after winning just 2 games in 2015. The credit begins and ends with 3rd year head coach Craig Bohl. Bohl was the architect of a North Dakota St. team that has dominated the FCS, where his teams went 104-32, winning the NCAA Division 1 Championship in each of his last 3 years. His team may have gotten caught looking ahead to SD State last week, as they lost to UNLV in 3 overtimes, despite recovering a fumble in the end-zone for a TD, returning a punt 60 yards for a TD, and scoring as time expired in regulation on a 19 yard pass. They could not contain the unLV ground game, which went for over 400 yards. A problem area for this team has been turnovers, despite a net +3 on the season, the Cowboys have coughed it up 17 times, and against a San Diego St. team that has an FBS high of 19 INT's on the season, that could be decisive in this contest. The Aztecs defense is by far the best in the Mountain West Conference, and the reason they are 17-0 SU and 14-2-1 ATS in their last 17 conference games. San Diego St. has won those 17 games by an average score of 35.9-104, covering by an unbelievable 14.26ppg. The Aztecs have their eyes set to earn a New Year's Day Bowl game, and if they win out, they are likely to achieve that goal. san Diego St. ranks 5th in the FBS allowing just 4.4 yards per play. The Aztecs run the ball alot, and rank 23rd nationally in time of possession, so Wyoming is going to have to take advantage of every play to stay in this game, and the Aztecs have allowed just 9 red-zone TD's all season, and the defense has 4 pick-6 TD's. Wyoming can throw the ball, but SDST ranks 11th in the country in pass efficiency defense. The last 14 teams to play more than 2 overtimes in their last game are just 4-10 ATS. Donnel Pumphrey, barring injury will become the career rushing leader in NCAA Football history. He has 6,051 yards and 59 TD's, and is currently 4th, trailing the career leader, Ron Dayne by just 346 yards. Wyoming lost to SD St. last year 38-3. If your worried about the 7,200 ft. elevation in Wyoming, consider that San Diego St. went to Colorado St., and Utah St. last year, both about 5000 ft. and won 41-17, and 40-13. This is a deep team, and Pumphrey ran 32 times vs Utah St. for 223 yards, and combined 52-344 at 6.6 yds carry, so no drop off. San Diego also fits in a situation that is 99-43 ATS, with Wyoming in a negative 51-118 ATS situation, and another that is 0-22 ATS. My NCAAF GOY is on San Diego St.

I understand this is BYU and Umass, and so do the odds makers, but I think they pressed this line. Umass has not lost a game by more than 28 points since playing Notre Dame last September, and they have played the likes of Florida, BC, SC, Miss St., Troy, and LA tech this season. Their average loss has been 17.2ppg in the 6. Umass is also off a bye, and have no players on their injury report. BYU has beaten just 1 FBS team by more than 28 points just 1 time in 2 years. The Cougars will not be focused here, their attention will be fixed on their next game for The Old Wagon Wheel vs Utah St., a huge rivalry.Umass has some good numbers vs good teams, and should at least hold their own here, make the play on Umass.

Once you get to week 9 of the NCAAF season, teams offenses and defenses have declared themselves as to what they are. When a game is posted from week 9 on with a total of less than 39, the mark stands at 1-19-2 OU. Make the play on the under.

Once you get to week 9 of the NCAAF season, teams offenses and defenses have declared themselves as to what they are. When a game is posted from week 9 on with a total of less than 39, the mark stands at 1-19-2 OU. Make the play on the under.

Baylor went 14 years without a winning season, but have now put together 7 in a row. They have been a much better team, but some of that is questionable as they refuse to take on out of conference teams that are a threat. The Bears are 63-24 SU over the period, but from week 1-5 they are 31-4, averaging 49.9ppg allowing 22.3. Then when they get into the meat of their schedule they are 32-20 SU from week 6 on averaging 40.4ppg allowing 35.2ppg. They wilt by 0ppg on offense and 13ppg on defense. They now must try and get by with a QB that has thrown just 35 passes at less than 50% in his career, and not mobile like Seth Russell. Additionally 2 key RB's were injured last game, and Shock Linwood is coming off suspension, so the offense is much weaker than they have been in a long time. Kansas St., and coach Bill Snyder are 22-9-1 ATS on 11-14 days rest, including 10-0 ATS in their last 10. They are 7ppg better with this kind of rest, than they are on regular 6 days rest. Make the play on Kansas St.

San Diego St. is improving every week, and for the last 2 years, their defense has dominated opponents. This is now a rising program, one that has won 7 or more games for 7 straight seasons. The Aztecs won 11 games a year ago, the most in program history, and at 8-1 they are ready to challenge that mark with a better 2016. They are improved on both sides of the ball, upping their offensive scoring from 32.4 to 35.8, and defending even better allowing 18.9ppg a year ago, to 15.1ppg this season, but the real story to the defense is the fact that they have allowed 5.2ppg in their last 5, and the Nevada offense is one of the worst in the FBS at 22.9ppg. The defense is as bad as the offense, and San Diego St. has a chance to pitch a shutout here. San Diego St. is 16-0 SU and 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 conference games, winning by combined scores of 35.2-10.1 or 25ppg. They have won the 3 games where they have been favored by more than 17 by an average score of 45-2! This game also fits a situation that is 30-4 ATS with a subset which is 21-0 ATS, make the play on San Diego

The records are similar in this game, with Colorado St. coming in at 5-4, and Air Force at 6-3. One big difference is the fact that Colorado St. has been playing the bottom of the conference against Fresno St. (1-9), UNLV (3-6), and Utah St. (T3-6). That is 3 of their 5 wins, and the other was vs N. Colorado as well as UT San Antonio. Things also took a step back when QB Colin Hill was lost for the season, and his replacement Nick Stevens has thrown for nearly 2 yards less per pass attempt, and neither are good runners. Air Force has wins over Army and Navy, and have the better team on both sides of the ball and playing at home as well, where they are 12-4 ATS in their last 16. Make the play on Air Force.

There are simply few teams that are better from the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball than Michigan. Iowa shocked almost everyone when they took a relatively easy schedule all the way to an unbeaten season at 12-0. They did not face Michigan St. or Ohio St. last year in the regular season. The problem is when they got to the Big-10 Championship game they lost to Michigan St., and could not stand up to Stanford in the Rose Bowl where they lost 45-16. It says a lot about how fortunate, and lucky last season was, and since going 12-0 they are actually a very ordinary 5-6, outscoring opponents by a scant 1.2ppg. This team is showing the visible signs of wear and tear as their last 2 were against Wisconsin and Penn St. The defense allowed 1,022 yards in the 2 games. Michigan is poised to come out big, and will likely remain unbeaten until their finale at Ohio St. Michigan has allowed 8 points or less in 4 of their last 5 contests, and 10 times in 2 seasons under Harbaugh, opponents have failed to get to 10. Michigan fits a 30-5 ATS situation, make the play on Michigan.

LA Tech may have the best offense in the country for a team that is not from a power-5 conference. The Bull Dogs are good over land as well as in the air, and also defend the run very well, and UTSA is not a very good passing team. The Bull Dogs are getting better as the season goes on, as they have won 6 straight games by an average margin of 21.3ppg, and have averaged over 52ppg in the process. UTSA has some misleading stats, and a lot has to do with the bounces, as they have had 4 games where their opponent has committed 3 turnovers or more. That will not likely be the case here as LA Tech has turned the ball over more than 1 time just once all season. Texas San Antonio also fits a very negative 49-104 ATS situation, and I'm not going against that. Make the play on LA Tech.

The Army Black Knights will travel to San Antonio, Texas to take on the Irish of Notre Dame. The Army is 0-7 SU against Notre Dame since 1980, but this may be one of their best chances. The game will be played in Texas, and that has been a haven for covering for Army. The Army has dozens of football recruits on their roster from Texas, and coaches say it is the most intense week of practice, as a lot of these kids try to make the travel squad. Parents of players often have a barbecue for players, and they often get to see friends and family, something that doesn't happen often if your at a military academy. Army already went to Texas once this year beating UTEP 66-14. The Army has a very good defense, and run the option, which keeps them in games vs better teams, and the record in Texas is 14-1 ATS. Notre Dame is 3-6 and having a poor season, and can hardly seeing them bringing a whole lot to this game. Make the play on Army.

This game fits a situation that is 139-91 ATS, plays on certain teams off a bye as a dog. Make the play on UNLV.

This will be a huge night for fans at Doak Campbell, as the Noles have not played a Friday Night home game in forever. The atmosphere will be electric. I think there is a lot of hidden value in this game, as the BC offense is going nowhere in this game, and the defense is vastly over-rated, and here is why. The Eagles have faced 5 opponents that have an offensive rank of 64-114 (bottom half of the FBS), and on top of that add Wagner. Boston College held these teams to 40 rushing yards on 28 attempts, and 135 passing yards on 135 attempts. Combined 68 plays for 175 total yards, 2.57 yards per play, and out-scored them 27.6-10.2, and they are 4-1 SU/ATS in the 5 games. They have played 4 games vs teams that rank 1-45 on offense. These teams have run for 190 yards on 38 attempts, and passed for 318 yards on 30 attempts, or 68 plays for 508 yards, at 7.5 yards per play. The average score has been 46.2-9.2. Florida St. has a very good offense, and while the defense is not up to speed with past Seminole defenses, it is more than equipped to handle a brutal BC offense. This game has major blowout written all over it. Make the play on Florida St.

Georgia Southern has only been in the FBS since the start of the 2014 season. They made a big splash winning 9 games in each of their first 2 seasons, but are not the same team this year. They run out of the triple option, but don't have the same caliber of players to run it this year. The 2014 season saw them at 53-383 per game on the ground, last year 56-363, but this year just 54-245. They have eroded 140ypg since 2014, and if you extract a game vs Savannah St. it drops to 222 ypg this year. They have averaged just 23.4ppg vs FBS opponents. LA Lafayette has a very poor offense, that has generated 13.3ppg in their last 3, but the one thing they do well is defend the run, allowing 3.1 ypa. LA Lafayayette runs 60% of the time, and Georgia Southern 73% of the time, so the ball will be on the ground a lot here burning clock. Since 2008 when a dog averages 125+ rushing yards per game, and playing to a total of 49 or less, the under is 519-367. Make the play on the under.(27-11 on Thursday games).

The W. Michigan Broncos at 9-0 on the season, are now the only unbeaten team from outside the power-5 conferences. They hold their own fate to get a G5 bid into a major Bowl game. They have won each of their last 8 games by double-digits, but that tends to start working against a team, especially as a road favorite. Teams 8-0 or better that won 8 straight by 10+ points, as road favorites from -7 to -24 are a woeful 4-17 ATS. It is basically due to the fact odds makers over-price them in anticipation of the public riding the "high horse." Kent St. is down to their 3rd QB, converted from RB, in Nick Holley. Holley has actually been a slight upgrade completing passes for 6.3 yards per attempt compared to the 5.3 by Mylik Mitchell. Holley of corse is a runner and has generated 9 TD's on the ground. Make the play on Kent St.

The Eastern Michigan Eagles joined the FBS in 1990, and it has been a most unpleasant journey, but there are signs of change in the air. E. Michigan has not won more than 6 games since joining, and here they are at 5-4 with 3 to play, and amazingly, will be Bowl eligible with just 1 win in their last 3 games. Coach Chris Creighton took over an impossible task, and after a couple of years struggling, he is starting to change the culture here, and his recruiting classes are an upgrade so the Eagles are now a competitive team in the MAC, and no longer a punching bag for opponents. The Eagles have lost the services of QB Todd Porter, but he was erratic, with 7 TD's and 9 INT's. Replacement Brogan Roback has been his equal in terms of completion percentage and yards per attempt, but much less prone to turning the ball over, with 10 TD's and just 3 INT's. While he is not a threat to run, as Porter was, the running numbers by Porter were better, but pedestrian at best, and I don't see it as a factor here. The best part of the EMU offense is the passing game, and against a very below average Cardinal back 7, they will find success in the air. Ball St. runs the ball pretty well, but EMU is a tick above the average of their opponents success on the ground, and could keep Ball St. behind the chains enough to have an advantage. EMU has been bad for so long, there is some line value here, and Ball St. is 0-10 SU in their last 10 vs a team with a winning record. Looking at Ball St. over the last 2 years, They have 2 wins vs FCS teams, and their opponents records are 10-41 combined over the last 2 years in their other 5 wins, and none of those teams finished the season with more than 3 wins. They are now 0-8 ATS following a conference loss of 10 or more points. QB Riley Neal is suffering from a knee injury, and will play, but if something happens, back up, Jack Milas is a tremendous downgrade. Make the play on E. Michigan.

This is always a blood bath, as these teams hate each other, and LSU would love nothing more than to put a chink in the Alabama National Championship hopes, but that is no small order. Ed Orgeron finds himself in a good spot. The man could not recruit at Ole Miss, and his 3 years there were a disaster, and he went 3-21 in his 24 SEC games. He has been proven to be a good coach when it comes to X's and O's, when he has someone elses gifted players. He went 6-1 in the Pac-12 as an interim, and he has LSU at 3-0, replacing Les Miles as an interim once again. Many ways, Orgeron has followed a path similar to Pete Carroll, and he takes something from that. He will need everything he has here to beat Alabama, but if this goes like the 4 meetings against Saban's troops in Baton Rouge it is going to be a dog fight, as none have ended with a margin of more than 7 points. Alabama is scoring 10.5ppg without its offense on the field, which is stunningly amazing unto itself, but despite of that they have had some close calls vs the best teams on their schedule, and right now, Orgeron has his LSU team playing at an extremely high level. Defensively, the Tigers are as close to Alabama as anyone in the country, and offensively they are pretty even right now. The fact is, since the start of the 2000 season, LSU has lost just 8 games at home by more than a TD, and the Tide, in all their glory has only managed to do it 1 time. The fact is, since October 10th, 2009, the Tigers have only lost here 1 time by more than 7 points. LSU looks like they are getting everything out of themselves since Orgeron took over, and I would not be surprised if they win this game outright. Make the play on LSU.

I have a lot of situations, but few I play blindly, but this one is 53-5 ATS with a 6.2 z-score, and play these games blindly as they arise. The play in this game is on Tulsa.

Life was painful at W. Kentucky, when they started the transition into the FBS in 2008. The first 3 years saw this team go 3-33 straight up in their first 3 years. They began a move forward in 2011 winning 7 games, and have had a winning team since. Former Louisville QB, Jeff Brohm took over in 2014 and the program took another leap forward, as they are 26-10, with 2 Bowl wins, and another bowl bid has been secured this year. The Hilltoppers passing game is elite, at 9.9 yards per attempt, and the offense has really gotten t going at 51.4ppg the last 5 contests. FIU is 45-97 SU lifetime in the FBS, and has never really gotten things going. The fact is they are just 10-56 SU vs a team that is .440 or better all-time. 25-39-2 ATS vs those teams. They have a worse than average pass defense, and their passing offense is far below average, and playing from behind, and having to throw the ball is not in their best interests. This is a blowout, make the play on W. Kentucky.

The South Carolina Gamecocks are at 4-4, saw a streak of 11 straight seasons at .500 or better come to an end a year ago, when they finished 3-9, their fewest wins since 1999. They may look like an improved team, but not as much as you would think. They have not beaten anyone by more than 6 points, and in their last 3 wins they had a turnover advantage of +9, and they were out-gained from the line of scrimmage in all 3 of those games. Missouri runs the ball very well, and that has been the weakness of the SC defense, as they do defend the pass pretty well. Perhaps the most telling story here is teams, such as Missouri, that have lost at least 4 straight, both against SU/ATS, and are a road dog of 5 or less in a conference game are 17-9 SU and 18-8 ATS. Make the play on Missouri.

This may be the ugliest game on the schedule this week. Florida Atlantic is 0-7 SU vs FBS teams this season, and Rice is 0-7 SU vs the FBS this season, so something has to give here. These teams boh enter this game with 1 win on the season, and in a game between 1 win teams from game number 8 out, the home team is 18-2 ATS, when facing a road team on regular 6 days rest, that is off a loss by 15 or more points. This is a perfect 15-0 ATS since 1995. Make the play on Rice.

The Louisville Cardinals still entertain thoughts of playing for a National Championship at 7-1. They got a big scare last week, and I think that will serve as a wake up call here. The Cards are elite on both sides of the ball, and the pathetic BC offense has no chance in this game. We have seen the Eagles defensively dominate average to weak offenses on the season, and the stats say they are one of the nations best stop units, until you look at the 2 games where they played elite offenses, Virginia Tech, and Clemson, and they lost those 2 games by a combined 95 points, allowing 52.5ppg, and almost 500 yards a game. I see something similar playing out here, as the BC offense scored a grand total of 10 points on less than 200 yards a game. Ugly start to finish, make the play on Louisville.

It has not been a good year for the UCLA Bruins, who at 3-5 will have to scramble to become Bowl eligible. Things have gotten worse when QB Josh Rosen went down with an injury. Rosen had 10 TD's to 5 INT's, and threw for 8.3 yards per attempt. Mike Fafaul has taken over, and he has completed a lower percentage, and has 8 INT's already, and the Bruins have gone from an above average 8.3 yards per pass attempt to 6.4. That is a huge drop, and the Colorado defense is strong, and getting stronger, while the offense and passing game are generating 8.4 yards per attempt. Buff's allowing just 12ppg in last 4, have the edge here on offense, on defense, and at home, and now hold destiny in their own hands to reach the Pac-12 Conference Championship. Make the play on Colorado.

I have a very specific metric that is based on offense vs defense, applied to road favorites, that fits into this game perfectly. While it doesn`t come up a lot, it has projected 87.7 total points in this game. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a totals situation based on negative ATS margin over the past several games. It is 53-116-6 O/U, and the play is on the under.

No team in the country has faced a more difficult schedule than Wisconsin. They have already played against LSU, Ohio St., Michigan, Iowa, and Michigan St. The offense has not done very well on a whole, but they have faced 3 teams with top 10 defenses on the season. There are signs the offense is improving as their last 2 games vs a pair of tough defenses, they generated 6.1 yards per play vs Ohio St., and 5.8 yards per play vs Iowa on the road. The Badger defense has been tested by potent offenses, such as Ohio St. and Michigan, as well as the potent ground game of LSU, and combined to hold those 3 to under 20ppg on average. Nebraska has a much less offense, and at 7-0 they are about to get a reality check. Nebraska has not faced a good defense all season, as their 7 opponents average ranking on defense is 86.3 out of 128 teams, making them a power-5 conference offense that has faced the worst defenses of any power-5 conference team. I think Nebraska is an illusion at 7-0, and also have Ohio St. on deck. Make the play on Wisconsin. Make the play on Wisconsin.

The Baylor Bears come into this game off having played just 1 games since October 1st. They are 6-0 on the season, but the schedule ranks as one of the worst in the country. The perspective can be shown by the fact that the Bears have been favored by a combined 176 points in their 6 games, or by just about 30 points per game. Texas has 3 losses by 7 points or less, and come in at just 3-4 on the season. The Horns have covered 7 of their last 8 at home, and have won 5 of their last 6 here SU, with the only loss by 3 points. They are 9-3 ATS as a home dog of 4 or less. Baylor has started 6-0 in each of the last 4 seasons, because they refuse to play any team out of the conference that can beat them. There 24-0 record turns to 14-7 from game 7 on. Despite the big numbers this is not close to the Baylor offense we have seen in the last 3 years. Texas has played a much tougher schedule. Road favorites off a bye that are unbeaten from game 6 out, and not a prohibitive favorite (less than -44), are 5-23 ATS since 1997. Going for the upset here, make the play on Texas.

The Ohio St. Buckeyes took a hit in their quest for a national title last week, with a loss at Penn St. I look for them to rebound in a big way this week vs Northwestern. Northwestern has not played at the Show since 2007, and their road history in this series is pathetic. The Buckeyes are 12-0 SU and 9-2-1 ATS (one of the 2 ATS losses by half a point), and have been outscored 44.3 to 6.8. The Wildcats have scored 9 points or less here in 11 of the 12 games, with the Buckeyes average cover +12.73 ppg. urban Meyer has coached at Bowling Green, Utah, Florida, and now Ohio St., with very few losses in the regular season. His teams are 18-4-1 ATS off a loss, and as a large favorite of -16 or more his teams are 6-0-1 ATS after a loss. Make the play on Ohio St.

The USC Trojans were beaten soundly by Alabama in their opener, and it seemed to rattle this team. They have really been playing better every week over their last 4 games, and the stats bear that out. They are generating 6.2 yards per play on the season, but 7.3 in their last 4 games, and the defense allowing 5.4 yards per play on the season, is allowing just 5.0 in their last 4 games as well. The bottom line is this team on the season is 0.8 yards better per play but that has changed to 2.3 yards better over their last 4, and have become a hidden elite team, despite being 4-3. California has been rather average from the line of scrimmage, but score a lot because of their shear volume of plays (88 per contest on average). I think that volume will drop vs USC, while the USC offense and defense enjoy a distinct advantage at the point of attack on both sides of the ball. Make the play on USC.

Whenever 2 option teams go at it, they know how to defend each other, as they see it in practice every day. That has led to a 6-26 O/U mark when option teams face each other in the right situation. Make the play on the under.

The biggest surprise in NCAA Football this year, may be the fact that Washington St. has a better defense than they do offense, although the offense is still putting up a lot of points. The Cougars are 4-2 on the season, and after an opening season home loss to E. Washington, they went to Boise St. and lost by just 3. They have been perfect since, and have out-gained all 5 of their FBS opponents on the season, and have looked like the better team from the line of scrimmage in all 5 games. Arizona St. is a somewhat tainted 5-2 on the season. They have a pair of good wins vs California and UCLA, but were out-gained by the Bruins by 168 yards and by the Bears by 183 yards. The difference maker was UCLA committed 4 turnovers, and Cal 3. Washington St. ran the ball just 22.5 times a game on average in their first 2, but have since been running 35 times a game, and have become more balanced. They are the better team on both sides of the ball and should get a comfortable win here. Make the play on Washington St.

The Ole Miss Rebels have had a tough schedule, and a tough time handling it, as they come into this game a disappointing 3-3 on the season. They have the unenviable task of taking on LSU in a night game in Baton Rouge. The Tigers are 91-12 SU her their last 103, and half of the 12 losses came to Alabama and Florida. They are 42-2 SU here vs teams .500 or worse over the period, and currently have a 32 game home winning streak vs .500 teams or worse. The better news is Leonard Fournette will play here, and the Rebels have yielded 200+ yards on the ground in 4 of their 6 contests. Make the play on LSU.

Arkansas has played well this season, and a lot of that has been in the hands of QB Austin Allen. Where the Razorbacks have struggld is against better teams, that have competent, or elite running attacks. Against TCU, A&M, and Alabama, they game up a ridiculous 825 yards on 103 carries. Auburn is all about the run, in fact they put it on the ground 55 times a game, with success. The problem is, if you load up the box against them, they can get big plays, and average 9.0 yards per pass attempt, when Sean White throws the ball. I can see a lot of success here for Auburn, controlling the line of scrimmage, and the Tiger defense has been pretty elite allowing 5.1 yards per play to teams that average 6. Arkansas is in a woeful 2-31 ATS situation for this contest as well. Make the play on Auburn.

NEWS FLASH: Eastern Michigan is 5-2 coming into this game. That is a monumental leap by this team that has won 2 games or less in 6 of the last 7 seasons, and has not had a winning season since 1995. here is the problem. They have played a soft schedule, and have committed 13 turnovers, and forced 13. Their biggest road test was at Missouri, and the Tigers beat them silly 61-21, gaining 647 total yards, and Missouri isn't exactly an offensive force. They are 11-26-1 ATS vs teams over .600 if they are getting 21 or more points. W. Michigan has it going at 7-0, and the biggest reason is the maturation of already good QB Zack Terrell. Terrell is a 5th year senior, and has thrown for over 10,000 yards in his career, including 80 for TD's. He is completing over 70% of his passes, at 9.2 yards per attempt and has 17 TD passes, to 0 INT's, in fact the Broncos through 7 games have turned the ball over 1 time all season. No team since at least 1980 has entered game 8 with just 1 turnover on the season. The Bronco's are averaging 51ppg against teams that are not from a power-5 conference, and just shutout a potent Akron offense. Teams off a 35 or more point win cover 54% in their next game, including 56.4% if they are a home favorite. Teams off a 35+ point win, playing as a home favorite, after shutting out their last opponent to a line of less than -27 are 122-80-6 ATS. Make the play on W. Michigan.

This is a tough spot for Illinois new head coach Lovie Smith. I think in time he will make the Illini competitive, but that time is not now. Illiois has a modest offense, but when you have your starting QB Wes Lunt, who is uncertain to play after suffering a back injury last week, and his back up, Chase Grouch, who went down with a shoulder injury last week, and your facing an ultra elite defense, your in big trouble. Michigan can't be run on, so I'm not sure if Illinois can crack the scoreboard here. Then there is the Michigan offense, that has out-gained opponents by 257 yards per game, and full of play makers. It's amazing how fast Jim Harbough has turned Michigan, back into the Michigan of old, now 16-2 SU since losing his first game as head coach. Michigan is a player for a National Championship, and Harbough doesn't allow his players to let down. That is evidenced by the fact that most of his games have been blowouts, but opponents score 1.7ppg in the 4th, Michigan 10.1. No back door here, make the play on Michigan.

It has been a long time since Colorado has put a competitive team on the field, but at 5-2, they appear to be heading for their first winning season since 2005. This is a team that last won 6 or more games in the 2007 season. The Buffaloes two losses have come against USC, and Michigan. They last won at Stanford in 1990, so they will be coming here with purpose. meanwhile, the Stanford offense is poor, as the Cardinal has not scored more than 27 points all season, and average just 19ppg, and have just 1 first quarter TD on the season. Colorado has held 4 opponents to 16 points or less on the season, and with RB Christian McCaffrey still hobbling, and questionable, the Stanford offense should be easy to contain. QB Sefo Liufau is healthy again, and has been perfect with 6 TD's and 0 INT's on the season, completing 72% of his tosses. Colorado has a perfect balance on offense, with 16 scores in the air, and 16 on the ground. Make the play on Colorado.

It is always wise to look toward Kansas St. when Bill Snyder is on the sidelines. One thing for sure is the game has not passed him by, and his kids are ready every game, and execute to precision. This is a team that converts in the red-zone better than any other team in the country over the last 2 years, as they have come away from the red zone with points in 80 of their last 83 possessions. (96.3%). they are a perfect 28 for 28 this year (19 TD's). Where his team has been almost equally effective is covering point spreads, especially when coming off a loss, and playing at home, as long as he is not a -31 point favorite or more, and the opponent is less than .750. His squad is an amazing 26-4 ATS in this spot, with a subset that is 20-1 ATS. Kansas has been pretty ordinary on offense this year, but as usual, the numbers are much better at home, where they have out-gained opponents by 2 yards per play. Charlie Strong finds himself on the hot seat at 3-3 on the season, as this was supposed to be a big year for Texas. It almost always looks like Kansas St. is an ugly pick, and it looks that way here as well, but history says they almost always turn out to be the right side. Make the play on Kansas St.

There is not a lot of offensive weapons on the field for Uconn, a team averaging just 17.3ppg in the Bob Diaco era, which started in 2014. The Huskies have done a bit better this year at 20.1ppg, but still a very below average offense. Central Florida has rebounded nicely, and fast from a woeful 2015, and are off to a 3-3 start. They are 20.4ppg better on offense, and 12.7ppg better on defense vs a year ago, but they are coming from a long distance from respectability. UCF has been pretty good defending the run, and so has Uconn, and that will take on extra importance here. The weather in E. Hartford, is not going to favor the kicking game or the passing game, as winds will be gusting up to 35 MPH, and a lot of rain is expected prior to kick off, so it could be a sloppy field as well. Bob Diaco has been known to get very conservative in poor weather conditions, and regardless, I think there will be a lot of running the ball here, against defenses expecting the run, that have handled opposing running attacks at an above average rate on the season. My NCAAF TOTAL OF THE MONTH, is on the UNDER.

This is strictly a situational play. This game fits a totals situation that is 53-115 O/U. Make the play on the under.

It certainly has not been the start each of these teams had expected, with Stanford at 3-2, and off a pair of blowout losses, and Notre Dame, considered to be a top 10 team, now at 2-4. Stanford has lost their last 2 games by a combined 64 points, and you have to go all the way back to 2007 since they lost 2 consecutive games by 56 points or more. The fact is since 1980, the Cardinal have lost consecutive games by 56 or ore total points and they have gone 4-3 SU to an average line of +16.5! They are also 6-1 ATS. I expect a huge rebound here in this contest. It is also just the 5th time since 1980 they have allowed 40+ points in back-to-back games, and they are 4-0 ATS in the first 4. Notre Dame played in the driving rain, mud, and wind last week at NC State. Notre Dame has beaten just Nevada and Syracuse on the season, and with 4 games left vs strong opponents, the Irish are likely to fall short of a Bowl bid this season. I think the wrong team is favored here, and the play is on Stanford.

This game fits a situation, that is based in part in a match up of underachieving teams, that has posted a 53-112-6 O/U mark. The play is on the under.

Rice has been up and down in football, as they have been very good at times, and also very bad at other times. The trend for this team is significantly down, as the Owls have opened 0-5, have won less games each of the past 2 seasons, and will make that 3 this year. The reason I like this game, is the Rice secondary is allowing 12 yards per attempt in the air, the worst such mark in NCAA Football. UTSA junior QB Dalton Sturm has thrown for 976 yards on the season at 8.6 yards per attempt. This is a decisive match up for the Road Runners, while Rice passes for just 5.3 yards per attempt. Make the play on Texas San Antonio.

While the Miami Florida Hurricanes suffered a tough 1 point loss to in state rival Florida St. last week, I still have this team as one of the best from the line of scrimmage in NCAA Football, and expec a big rebound this week. North Carolina was taken out brutally by Virginia Tech last week 34-3. This team has a bigger reputation that the level of talent and are just 3-4 SU in their last 7 games, vs FBS competition. Miami was beaten to a pulp at NC last year where they gave up 59 points to the Heels. Teams that are home favorites off a 1 point loss cover 56.5% in their next game, and 64.2% if favored by 6 to 11 points. Home teams revenging a road loss cover 54% of the time. These teams are far apart in talent, and I expect Miami to play with a chip on their shoulder, as they have had this game circled since spring practice. Make the play on Miami,Fla.

After winning an average of 11 games a year for 6 years, the N. Illinois Huskies are off to a precarious 1-5 start, including a loss at home to W. Illinois. their problems have been getting out of the ate, as they have been punished in the 1st quarter, where they have lost by a combined score of 17-69, while getting outscored by just 6 total points after the 1st quarter. C. Michigan opened the season at 3-0, and had a huge upset on the road at Oklahoma St. They have been a different team since starting 3-0, as they are 1-2 in their last 3, beating Ball St. by just 3, as a 12 point favorite. They have spent their last 2 at home, and this will be on the road. he line here looks suspicious, but N. Illinois has a pedigree to knock off a C. Michigan team that has lost its way. Make the play on N. Illinois.

Pure and simple, Toledo has one of the best passing attacks in NCAAF, and Bowling Green can't throw the ball, nor defend the pass, and have given up 70+ twice this season. This may be the 3rd. Make the play on Toledo.

There are simply not a lot of teams that run the triple option, but Saturday a pair that do will meet as Georgia Southern takes on Georgia Tech. The theory of course, is these teams practice against it every single day of practice, so understanding the system in great detail, would have a team more prepared to be effective defensively against it, than a typical team. When a pair of triple option teams meet, and the line is higher than -7, the result has been 2-17 O/U in these games, covering the under by a whooping 11.32ppg. These teams that rush all the time for averages of 5 yards to 7 yards per carry, have been 96.4 carries for 407.1 total yards or just 4.22 yards per carry, well below their norms. Make the play on the under.

This one sets up nicely for the San Diego St. Aztecs. They enter the game at 4-1, with the lone loss to S. Alabama, an inexcusable loss, where everything went wrong. The Aztecs held S. Alabama to 5.4 yards per play, but allowed 42 points, because of a fumble return of 80 yards, a broken coverage 79 yard TD pass, a 39 yard TD pass, and a negative turnover margin. If you take away the 2 big plays, the Jaguars managed just 3.6 yards per play. The stats, and that loss are keeping this team from being 5-0, and a much different picture here. RB Donnel Pumphrey is running for a career high 6.9 yards per attempt. Pumphrey is rising on the career record for rushing yards held by Ron Dayne of Wisconsin with 6,397 yards. Pumphrey has 5,163, and will have a shot at the record barring injury. Fresno St. is an opportunity for him to have a huge game, as they have allowed 1,318 rushing yards to Nebraska, Toledo, Tulsa, and UNLV at 6.3 yards er carry. San Diego St. after 11 seasons without a winning record, has had 6 winning seasons in a row, this will be the 7th. The defense is among the best in the country. Fresno St. is completing less than 50% of their passes on the season, and 3 players have caught about 80% of those completions, and that is just not a versatile enough offense to go against the Aztec back 7 especially with an inferior running game. San Diego should continue to run the ball effectively even with a big lead, preventing the opportunity for a back door cover. Make the play on San Diego St. My NCAAF GAME OF THE MONTH.

Have a double total situation for tonight. Lafayette has already played an option team (Tulane), and has been significantly above average vs the run this year, so should do a good job here. App St. 47-272 on ground last year, just 47-213 this year, has eroded year over year, and Cox out has not been the difference. teams that have previously seen the option do very well against it. App St. passing erosion 220 in 2014, 194 in 2015 and 166 this year on similar attempts, offense not nearly as impactful, down from 35,37ppg in 14,15 to 23ppg this year.I have an 89-128-5 O/U situation on this game, and option teams tend to under perform vs a team that has seen and practiced for the option from a game earlier in the season. Make the play on the under.

It wasn't expected that the Miami Hurricanes would enter this game as the perfect team, and higher ranked team. Iy was generally considered that Florida St, with all 11 offensive starters returning and 6 defensive starters, that they were among the elite teams in NCAAF this season. A 3-2 start has left the noles with no path to the National Championship Game. The schedule has been tough, no doubt, and the Noles have shown plenty of offense, but the usually defensive reliable team has seen the stop unit allowing over 40ppg. They have allowed 233 yards rushing on average in their last 3, and over 500 yards a game. The offense has been very good, but the defense has been average at best, and allowing 9.4 yards per pass attempt. The Hurricanes offense is even more elite than Florida St. generating 7ypc on the ground, and 9.8 in the air per pass attempt, to teams allowing just 7.1. The Hurricanes are not perfect just because of the offense, they allow just 3.6 yards per play. Florida St. will do better than that, but the problem is the Miami offense has a much higher ceiling in this game, and at home with a perfect season going, against a bitter rival, should result in a big effort, and bigger win. Make the play on Miami.

It seems like Bill Snyder has been at Kansas St. forever, and he pretty much has, except for a temporary hiatus from 2006-08. He took over a bad program in 1989, and after that first year he has been the top coach ATS at 162-107-4 ATS, with his team's covering a ridiculous 60.2% of the time. he doesn't take too kindly to losing, and when his Cats are off a loss, they come out prepared in their next game at home, as they are 35-10 ATS following a setback, including 27-7 ATS if it was a road loss. Those are certainly numbers I would avoid, and with the best defense in the country, he will have his team up for the challenge of the high octane Texas Tech offense. Kansas St. is 43-18 ATS in their last 61 conference games, including 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS as a home favorite of -6.5 or more. Texas Tech is allowing 41ppg in their last 24 road conference games. (45.2ppg in their last 8). When Texas Tech has allowed more than 28 points on the road, and they are less than a 10 point under dog, they are 22-59 ATS! (9-23 ATS lately). Make the play on Kansas St.

Umass and Old Dominion are both new to the FBS. Umass has found little success since their entry as they carry a 9-61 SU mark into this game, of which 4-37 SU is representative of the struggles they have faced on the road, where they have lost by an average of 21 points per contest. They have had an unusual schedule this season and are coming off 4 straight home games. Umass is also 0-9 SU as a road dog off a home game since joining the FBS. Old Dominion has gotten their legs under themselves, and is 11-9 SU in their last 20 since joining the FBS. Before their last 2 games they had held just 1 FBS team to 20 points or less (a woeful Eastern Michigan team), but have done so in each of their last 2. This is a team that has done very well at home as a favorite where they are 8-1 SU. Umass fits an ugly 21-52 ATS situation based in part on allowing 30+ points in 2 straight games, while Old Dominion applies to a long term momentum situation that ia 421-294 ATS. Make the play on Old Dominion.

Many wondered about this Ohio St. team this season, as they returned just 3 starters on offense, as well as just 3 on defense. Worry no more, the Buckeyes are as good as ever, and that is the product of having top level recruiting classes every year. Urban Meyer is 158-27 SU as a coach, and has won at 4 different schools and the Buckeyes are 54-4 SU since his arrival on campus, and his sweet spot has been as a -24 to -31 home favorite where he is 6-0 ATS here, winning by 44 points per game. Overall Meyer's teams are 17-4 ATS as a favorite from -24 to -31. Indiana is off a huge win over Michigan St., but the Spartans are not the same team they have been over the past few years. Indiana has shown to have an elite passing attack, but they are going against the best pass defense in the country, and I think they are going to turn the ball over, and find it hard moving the chains here. Indiana has not beaten Ohio St. since 1988 (0-22-1). Indiana fits a horrible 45-103 ATS situation, and a different 2-23 ATS situation. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes apply to a 91-45 ATS situation. Make the play on Ohio St.

The North Carolina Tar Heels won a huge game last week, upsetting Florida St. 37-35, in a shootout thriller. They could be a bit flat when they take on a vastly improved Virginia Tech Hokies teams in this one. Justin Fuente has infused the Hokie offense, that he brought with him from Memphis, and defensively, the Hokies have been mighty stingy against the pass. They had a very misleading loss to Tennessee, a game they led 14-0, but 5 fumbles turned the game completely around. Tennessee recovered 2 of the fumbles inside the Hokies 6 yard line, and scored TD's in 1 play, and scored a FG on another, resulting in 17 points, and V Tech simply could not recover. The Hokies out-gained the Vols 400-330, but in addition to 5 fumbles they were penalized 101 yards. They held Joshua Dobbs to 91 yards passing, and the V Tech pass defense has been great all season, and should be able to at least make life difficult for the Carolina passing attack. Offensively the Hokies have a bigger edge, and should be able to score enough here to possibly win the game outright. Virginia Tech applies to a 65-20 ATS situation here, and I like them to possibly win the game. Make the play on Virginia Tech.

Army suffered a tough 23-20 loss their last time out vs a bad Buffalo team. They dominated the stats, but didn't get the job done, but the Black Knights are still 3-1 and certainly look like a much better team here than we have seen out of West Point in well over a decade. They have out-gained every opponent they have faced by 180ypg, and usually limit the number of plays run in a game, because they run the triple option, and the clock is moving with almost every play when they have the ball. They have averaged +22 plays a game on the season. Duke has been out-gained in 3 of their 4 games, have a big huge win over Notre Dame, so many will question the line here. Army teams when better than .500 and at least 5 weeks into the season, are 8-3 ATS facing a power conference team. Duke also beat Army 44-3 at West Point last year, so many will question if things have changed that much? QB Daniel Jones has been quite erratic for Duke with 6 TD's to 8 INT's on the season, and leading RB Jela Duncan, the only Duke runner at 4ypc or better, is questionable. Army fits a situation that is 27-4 ATS for this one as well. Make the play on Army.

The Tennessee Vols, are at the least opportunistic,resilient, or most likely, lucky to come into this game unbeaten. Once again for the third straight season, Texas A&M is off to the races with a 5-0 start. They don't seem to learn with an easy early schedule, and the last 2 years after starting 10-0, they finished 6-10 SU and 3-13 ATS. The 2014 season saw them at 5-0 scoring 51.5ppg, allowing 15ppg. They then saw those numbers go to 25.2ppg allowing 36.2ppg. Last year their 5-0 start saw them at 39.2ppg allowing 21ppg, and finished 20.6ppg allowing 22.6ppg. Here we go again at 5-0. Tennessee has grown up. All 4 of their losses a year ago came when leading in the 4th quarter, and all their wins this year have come after trailing by 10 or more. A&M has been here before, and melted, Tennessee was last 5-0 the year they won a National Championship. Make the play on Tennessee.

Arizona is coming off a physical and emotional contest vs Washington. The game left the Cats physically battered and have no less than 7 players on the injury report from that game. Perhaps none more important than RB Nick Wilson and his 6 yards a carry and 3 TD's. The Arizona run game may be impacted if Wilson can't go or is not 100%, and the run defense of UCLA has been the team's biggest asset, so the match up is favorable here. UCLA has yet to cover a game this season, but teams 0-4 ATS and playing as a home favorite of 10 or less points are 12-5 ATS, and 9-3 ATS vs a team .500 or less. This is a huge game with both teams at 2-2. Make the play on UCLA.

Utah is off to a 4-0 start, and looking back they had ample trouble moving into the Pac-12 Conference back in 2011, as they were 9-18 SU in their first 3 years. They have since recruited competitively, and have gone 12-7 SU since. The Utes do it as good as anyone on defense, as they have limited their first 4 opponents to 15.8ppg. That is in stark contrast to California who allows 42.5ppg, and 47ppg against the 2 power-5 conference teams they have faced. The Cal offense is not as good as the numbers say it is as they have generated 8.3 yards per play, vs opponents that average allowing 8. The Utes held Cal to 24 points a year ago, and that was against a QB that is now in the NFL. Conference road teams with momentum, having covered 2 straight games, and are playing a toss up game on the road, -3 to +3, are 102-55-4 ATS since 2010. That is 81-46-3 ATS if it is a conference game. Make the play on Utah.

Everyone considered the Florida St. Seminoles the challenger of Alabama for the National Championship. The Noles brought just about everyone back from a year ago, but were blindsided by upstart Louisville, who simply has devastated all comers so far this season. All is not lost, and many thought they might stumble last game vs S. Florida, feeling sorry for themselves, but the opposite happened, they went out and got right back in the thick of things. They have to win out until they get Clemson at home on October 29, and that game will likely determine their post-season fate. Carolina is not as good as they were last season despite the 3-1 start, and the loss to Georgia looms larger, as the Bull Dogs have not been as good as advertised. They have been just above average offensively in yards per play, and about average defensively. The Noles are elite offensively, can run and throw, and even with the Louisville debacle figured in, the defense has been slightly better than average. I see a big Seminole win at home, and they are also backed by a 37-6 ATS angle for this one. Make the play on Florida St.

This will be the first of many big games in the competitive Big-10 Conference this season as a pair of unbeatens face off in Ann Arbor. Wisconsin is the surprise here as they opened the season with a big win vs LSU, but was it as big as it looks? Les Miles is on the hot seat in Baton Rouge, as LSU fell for the 2nd time this season last week, at Auburn. The Badgers are very ordinary on offense, and depend on a strong defense to stay in games. The defense will be tested by a balanced and elite Michigan offense, that is also elite on defense. The Wolverines will have the best team on the field be it on offense, or defense. The Wolverines have scored 45+ points in all 4 games, and have a defense capable of limiting Wisconsin to very few points, something important for laying 10+ points. This group of Badgers has never been to Ann Arbor, as the last time Wisconsin played here, was 2010, and the badgers have avaregd just 14.2ppg here in their last 12 trips, and will be hard pressed to top that here. Michigan fits a conference situation that is 104-53 ATS. Lay the points and play on Michigan.

The Georgia Tech Yellow jackets run the triple option, and it is an offense designed to negate the advantage of an opposing defense. They have been highly successful, but this season it appears that they are not up to speed with past years. They did manage to run all over Mercer, but that was a decided mismatch. There games vs Vanderbilt, Clemson, and Boston College were far more challenging. tech in those 3 games ran for just 3.97 yards per carry. This is a team that has averaged 5 to 6 yards a carry in many of the seasons under Paul Johnson. meanwhile, the Miami defense has squashed the run in their 3 games allowing 1.57 yards per carry. What is even more important than that, they faced the triple option last week vs Appalachian St. holding them to 2.6 yards per carry. teams that face the triple option for the 2nd time in consecutive weeks are 15-7 ATS, and hold the option to 4.2 yards per carry. That will not cut it for Georgia Tech, especially against a Miami offense generating over 50ppg. Make the play on Miami.

The Washington Huskies strung together 24 straight seasons of .500 or better, but that came crashing down hard in 2004, when they finished a woeful 1-11. That wasn't even rock bottom for this team, as they continued to have a losing record 6 straight seasons, and rock bottom came in 2008 when they were a hapless 0-12. They have since gotten their respectability back, and have had winning seasons in each of their last 6 campaigns. This year could be special, as UW is off to a 3-0 start, and ranked #9 in the nation, and rightfully so, and could be even better than the ranking. Washington allowed just 18ppg a year ago, and the defense has the potential to be even better this season, and the offense that averaged 30ppg a year ago, is going to be much better with the emergence of QB Jake Browning, now a sophomore. Browning had 16 TD a year ago last year to 10 picks, but is 12 TD's 1 INT to start 2016. Arizona is a very crippled team right now, and Has a QB, and top RB who both may miss Saturday, or hampered at the least. They also have 3 questionable LB's for the game, as well as a CB, so the back 7 may be depleted and UW and Browning are generating 10.1 yards per pass attempt and should rule the roost here. Arizona was blistered by Grambling for 402 yards in the air, when they were healthy. A conference road favorite that is 3-0, cover 55% of the time. Road favorites that have won their last 3 games by 17 or more points also cover 55% of the time. Just don't see Arizona keeping up here, with a lack of depth, and missing or hampered key pieces on the offense. Make the play on Washington.

I picked army to top their season win total futures, and they are well on their way to doing so early. The Black Knights have their best team in 20 years, and have opened at 3-0. Many will look at their road woes, which were ugly until recently and find a way to play against them. Army was 0-20 SU on the road, and 1-19 ATS. They have since been 3-4 SU on the road, and 6-1 ATS. They have played a decent schedule, one that is on or above their level, and have out-gained Temple, UTEP, and Rice by 1358-809. The Cadets were 1-24 SU on the road, with the lone win against long term worst FBS team, E. Michigan, how things have changed. They have 5 players who have rushed for 120 or more yards on the season, led by Andy Davidson 62-334, only a sophomore. They have 2 competent QB's to run the option. The offense ranks 46th in the country, and the defense #17. Buffalo has had just 2 winning years in their FBS history, and this will not be the 3rd. They lost to Albany at home, a team they beat last year 51-14, and Nevada on the road 38-14, a team they lost by 3 to a year ago. Their 2 QB's have gone 24-57, completing just 42.1%, against poor competition. Nevada ran all over them a week ago, and Army will do the same. Buffalo's lack of a passing game, makes them an even worse team, playing from behind. Teams that allowed 5.5 yards a carry in their last game, playing as a home dog, against a team that out-rushed their last 3 opponents by 100 yards or more are 5-23 ATS. If you extend that to facing an opponent that out-rushed their last 3 opponents by 150 or more yards it becomes 0-10 ATS, failing to cover by 11.50ppg. Home dogs that allowed 37 or more points in their last game, and facing an opponent that led by 14 or more points at the half in their last 2 games and are .500 or less, are 10-30 ATS.Army has started 3-0 just 2 times in the last 36 years, and when they did they went to 4-0 winning by 34.5ppg. This is a different Army team, make the play on Army.

Central Florida hit rock bottom a year ago finishing at 0-12. They had a previous encounter with the "doughnut" coming up empty in 2004 at 0-11. They rebounded from that performance to generate 8 wins in 2005, and this team has a chance to do the same. The record is just 1-2, but a pair of losses in the Big-10, hardly measure what to expect going forward, and the fact is they took Maryland to overtime, out-gaining the Terps by nearly 100 yards, despite 4 fewer possessions as they had a -4 turnover margin in that game. FIU was drubbed by that same Maryland team 41-14, and this team has also lost to Umass. The numbers are ugly for both teams offensively, but defensively Central Florida is light years ahead, and against a poor defense, the mediocre offense of the Knights should find some daylight. This is a bigger mismatch than it looks thanks to the fact that C. Florida is 1-15 SU in its last 16 games. Things have changed, but the perception has yet to catch up. Make the play on Central Florida.

I had this game marked as potentially being a very large play at the beginning of the season, and what I have seen so far, has not changed my mind, but in fact enhanced it. Vanderbilt has struggled to move the football, and outside of a game vs Middle Tennessee at home, the numbers are as ugly as ever with just 7 points vs Georgia Tech and 13 vs SC. This is a team that finished 124th in scoring a year ago, at just 15.2ppg, and two years ago, not much better at 17.2ppg. I don't see the needle moving much. The biggest difference is on defense, where the Dores were very stingy a year ago, but through 3 games they have been significantly below average, both against the run, and the pass. W, Kentucky will exploit a weaker than average secondary, with a passing attack that remains elite, and generates 10.2 yards per play, vs opponents that have averaged allowing 8.2. Vandy has big issues throwing the ball, where they complete just 52.6% of their passes at an ugly 4.6 yards per attempt, and 125 yards per game. W. Kentucky's average pass defense should have no issues containing the meager Vanderbilt airless offense. That means Vandy is going to have to find success on the ground, but even their they are below average, and the Hilltoppers excel stopping the run, allowing 2.9 yards per rush vs teams averaging 4.2. Needless to say, the Dores are going nowhere in this contest, while W. Kentucky should have a big game in the air, especially with their fast paced offense, and 345 yard average in the air per game. They could top that in this one. This one goes as my NCAAF September Game of the Month. Make the play on W. Kentucky.

When you just take a glimpse of the names of these schools, and see an ACC team at home vs a MAC Conference school, and see the MAC Conference school as a favorite, on the road, it is hard not to look the way of Virginia. The devil is in the details however, and the right team is favored, but not by enough. The difference is a balanced C. Michigan attack led by 5th year senior Cooper Rush. Rush has started at QB all 4 years, has thrown for over 10,000 yards, and 78 TD's. He is averaging 9.4 yards an attempt on the season, and his 11 TD passes have gone to 6 different receivers. Virginia gave up 8.3 yards per pass attempt vs Oregon, and 8.1 to Richmond. They are going to be in trouble in this one as well, as Rush already went to Oklahoma St. and won 30-27 and has the Chip's off to a 3-0 start covering all 3. This team is vastly underrated, and has a very good defense as well. The Chip's are looking for their 6th straight season at .500 or better, for the first time in their history. Virginia had a run of 17 out of 18 years at or over .500, but the program has fallen off the map, and has not won more than 5 games in the last 4 years, and at 0-3, nothing looks different here, maybe worse. Virginia once again is yielding over 30ppg, and that has been their history over the last 4+ years, allowing 30+. With a limited offense, vs a very strong offense, with an above average defense, it will be hard for the Cavs to stay close here. Make the play on C. Michigan.

The Eastern Michigan Eagles are off to a 2-1 start. That is news for a struggling program that has not won more than 2 games in 6 of the last 7 years. The Eagles are 82-222 SU in their last 304 games. Now the bad news. The Eagles beat Mississippi Valley St. arguably the worst team in the FCS, and then beat Charlotte, and an argument can be made, that Charlotte is the worst team in the FBS. between those wins was a 40 point loss to Missouri. Bigger than that loss however was the loss of Shaq Vonn in that game. EMU has limited skill players, and Vaughn was arguably their best. Wyoming opened the season with a win vs the MAC over N. Illinois, and was beaten badly by Nebraska as expected. e. Michigan has not won 2 consecutive games since October22, 2011, or 5 years ago, and own a 24-43 ATS mark off a win. Wyoming is not a good team, but compared to E. Michigan, they should own the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. E, Michigan is 8-70 SU in their last 78 games vs the FBS, when outside the conference. Make the play on Wyoming.

The Clemson Tigers rolled over teams a year ago with a Heisman caliber QB in Deshaun Watson. he decided to return for his senior year, and appears quite tentative thus far. Last year he threw for 8.4 yards per attempt, rushed for 5.3 yards a carry, and completed nearly 68% of his passes. This year he is completing just 57%, at a pedestrian 6.8 yards per attempt, and has run for just 3.7 yards per carry, and after running for 12 scores a year ago, he has 0 this season. he ran for over 1100 yards a year ago, and through 3 games, he has just 84 yards. It appears that they are being cautious with him, as keeping him on the field is of the utmost importance. Last week vs Auburn just 19 points. Georgia Tech runs the option, and sometimes a good defense struggles against it, and that has been the case with Clemson. These teams have met 5 times in the last 5 years, and Georgia Tech has produced 24,28,31,31, and 31 points, or an average of 29ppg. It would appear that Clemson may need 40 points to cover this one, something they have done on the road just 32% of all games since 2011. This game fits a 70-38 ATS situation on the dog here. ACC home dogs are 23-16 ATS, in Thursday games, including 10-3 ATS from +5 to +12.5. Make the play on Georgia Tech.

If you like points, your in for a treat here, as Texas Tech has been a scoring machine since the start of last season, and are shockingly, getting better offensively. This is a team that has averaged 61ppg at home since the start of last season, and have scored a minimum of 52 points at home. While the defense is awful, the trade off is, the offense stands out a lot more than the deficiencies of the defense. Tech is close to 700 yards of total offense in their first 2 games. Texas Tech vs the similar mid-level conferences of the Mountain West, USA, and Sun Belt, are 15-0 SU at home winning by an average score of 45.4-17.7 or by just about 28ppg. LA Tech gave Arkansas everything they could handle, and that surely has limited the line here, but the challenge they face here, vs an electric offense, is something they have not seen before, and a lot of these mid-level conference teams simply don't have the depth to keep up. LA Tech caught Arkansas off guard, and Tech will take note, but here is the big difference. Tech returns 0 linebackers, and just one member of the secondary. Last game, CB Ephraim Kitchen injured his groin, and DB Jerrell Jackson, a transfer from Hawaii expected to challenge in the secondary, quit the team. The back 7 has little experience, and little depth, and won't be prepared for the onslaught they receive. They will get there points, Tech does not defend well. here is an eye opener. Texas Tech is 153-66-5 ATS in all games since 1980 when they score 28 or more points. I think it is quite obvious their chances of getting there are extremely high. LA Tech is 28-75 ATS on the road over the same period if they allow 28 or more, including 6-34 ATS with a line from +7.5 to +21.5. Make the play on Texas Tech.

It has been a good news, bad news week for Army. Their win last Saturday has them at 2-0 for the first time since 1996. The sad news is, Brandon Jackson was killed in a single car crash just hours after that game. The Black Knights have dedicated the rest of the season to Jackson, as well as their game vs UTEP. We have seen so many times when a team steps up to honor a fallen teammate, coach, owner, etc. It seems to galvanize and focus a team's commitment in their next game. There is more good news for Army. This game is being played in El Paso Texas, with Fort Bliss right around the corner, and there will be countless Army fans in the seats. Secondly, the history of both Army and Navy playing in Texas, as why? I have done a lot of research on this. What I found was Army and Navy get a ton of players from Texas every year (35 combined players from Texas this year on Army and Navy Rosters). Coaches report the most competitive week of practice is when they are playing in Texas, as players do everything they can to make the travel squad, and local parents often have a barbecue for players, and the games are always well attended by Army supporters. The record bears this out. Army and Navy are 24-4 ATS in Texas (Army 11-2). UTEP has played well at home, but have some injury issues, especially at QB as Zack Greenlee injured his knee missed last week, but did practice on Tuesday, and it looks like he will play, but at what capacity if he does? Army has not been good for a long time, and many will point to their 2-10 SU record in their rare games as road chalk...but those were all bad Army teams. If you go back to 1996, the last time they were 2-0, their mark as road chalk was 9-3 SU. I think this Army team is more like those. Army has always had turnover issues, but have yet to turn the ball over this year, and it is just the 6th time they have gone 2 straight games without a turnover since 2010, and they have a winning spread record in the first 5. The last 2 times UTEP saw the option was in 2014 where they allowed 410 rushing yards at 7.9 yards per attempt, and 2013 allowing 395 yards on 6.9 yards an attempt. Army finished 47th in the country on defense last year, and are currently 25th through 2 games. Make the play on Army.

I am making a late add to the plays for Saturday, based almost entirely on a situation that is 115-46-2 ATS 71.4% winners, and has not finished any season with a worse winning percentage than 59%, and in fact the worst it has done in the last 9 years is 67%! This is one of few situations I will play blindly, because it is so strong. Make the play on Mississippi St.

I am making a late add to the plays for Saturday, based almost entirely on a situation that is 115-46-2 ATS 71.4% winners, and has not finished any season with a worse winning percentage than 59%, and in fact the worst it has done in the last 9 years is 67%! This is one of few situations I will play blindly, because it is so strong. Make the play on Boston College.

Bill Snyder has been around Kansas St. football for many years, and is serving his 2nd stint as the team`s head coach. The first stint sa him compile a record of 136-68-1 SU and 108-77-3 ATS. he returned at an advanced age, but the game has far from passed him by, as he is 57-34 SU and 54-36-1 ATS in his 2nd stint. The 162-113-4 ATS mark in his career here, is the best in the country at 59%, so he always has to be considered. When you take a peak at his numbers as a home chalk from -12 to -34 he is 40-19 ATS. Florida Atlantic has had little success, and the last time they had a winning record was in 2008, and they are 26-60 SU since then. The strength of the team was supposed to be on defense, but they were torched for 530 yards, and out-gained at home by S. Illinois, and through 2 games, they are allowing 500 yards a contest. They certainly have not thrived facing the superior teams in the Big-12 where they are 0-7 SU and 0-7 ATS in their last 7, having been outscored 6.7 to 44.3 or by just about 38ppg, and have failed to cover by 15.07ppg. Kansas St. opened at Stanford, and despite out-gaining the Cardinal by 63 yards a -1 turnover margin sealed their fate. The resolve of this Wildcat team under coach Snyder reveals that they are at their best off a loss at 55-28 ATS, including 34-13 ATS at home. This one as the potential to be a colossal blowout, and with SW Missouri St. on deck for the Wildcats, no look ahead to worry about. Make the play on Kansas St.

Make no mistake about it, this will be the biggest football game ever played in Boone, NC. Appalachian St. has never hosted a power-5 conference opponent. This is a very experienced and talented team, with a storied history in the FCS, and writing their own history since joining the FBS in 2014-15. Since October 11, 2014, the Mountaineers have only seen 3 FBS teams lose fewer games than they have, Ohio St., Alabama, and Clemson. The 3 losses were at Clemson last year, where they were out-gained by just 95 total yards, as Clemson played in the National Championship game. This year they traveled to Rocky Top to take on a top 10 Tennessee team, and took them to overtime, losing a heart breaker on a fumble recovery in the end-zone in overtime. Tennessee out-gained them by just 27 total yards. This team went to Michigan in 2007 and beat the Wolverines 34-32 in front of 109,000 people. The Mountaineers play at 3,300 ft. perhaps not enough to cause problems for the Hurricanes, but maybe just enough. This is a talented team, led by a QB in Taylor Lamb that threw for 31 TD's a year ago, and ranked #10 in QB efficiency in the nation. RB Marcus Cox went for over 100 yards vs Clemson last year, and 125 vs Tennessee this season. Cox has rambled for 4,336 yards in his career and 46 TD's. Jalen Moore, and Terrence Upshaw combined for over 1,100 yards a year ago as well, and return. The defense, a team strength a year ago, returned 9 this season, and should be better, and have been tested vs Tennessee. Miami has a new coach in Mark Richt, who was let go by Georgia. Richt had many good years there, but just could not get over the top, as Florida, LSU, and Alabama seemed to always get in his way. He faces a similar challenge in the ACC competing with Florida St. and Clemson. One note on Richt. His entire lengthy career at Georgia is notable for one absence. He never played a road game vs a team not from a power5 conference. The Hurricanes enter completely untested, and while the rushing numbers have been great, the OL is a major concern, and defensively, they are switching to a 4-3, and the back 7 is very inexperienced, and not deep. This is a huge opportunity for Appalachian St. who has a storied history of Championships, and success. I think the Clemson game a year ago, as well as the Tennessee game this year, both on the road, will serve them well here. The Mountaineers will not be intimidated, and Miami may not take this game as seriously as they need to. The upset is a very real possibility, and players have positioned themselves to the obvious, with 75-80% of all bets on Miami. Despite that, the line has dropped some, showing a lot of sharp action running with the Mountaineers, and I see what they see. Make the play on Appalachian St.

Georgia St.did not join the FBS until the beginning of the 2013 season. They certainly had a trying 2 years, going 1-21. They had a major bounce last season, behind a very experienced and blossoming QB in Nick Arbuckle. Arbuckle set the Sun Belt record for passing yards with 4,368, and carried the team. The Panthers did very little on the ground, finishing dead last in the Sun Belt rushing for less than 100 yards a game. Despite Arbuckle's heroics, this team was still mediocre at 6-7, but did make it to a Bowl game, which they lost. Notable from a season ago was how they fared in the 2 toughest games. They lost to Oregon by 33, and Georgia Southern by 34. That was with Arbuckle, this year it is with Conner Manning, a completely different result. Manning has completed just 51.8% of his passes, at 5.3 yards per attempt. neither was vs a defensive minded unit, in Air Force and Ball St. The ground game, missing from a year ago, has generated much less with 39-104 at 2.67 yards a tote. They have been out-gained 986-441 in those 2 games. They also have struggled by the fact that Will Lutz has graduated, as Lutz punted, kicked off, and was the FG kicker as well. So far they are averaging a meager 35.1 yards per punt. Trouble lies ahead vs Wisconsin. The Badgers have had 14 straight winning seasons, 7 of which produced 10 wins or more. Just 7 teams have more wins since 2005. This is a team that always brings it on defense. They have dominated the time of possession battle vs LSU, who had the ball just 22 minutes, and Akron, who had it just 19. Georgia St. will be lucky to crack the 20 minute possession barrier, and I expect this one to get ugly early. I would be shocked if Georgia St. scores in the first 3 quarters of this game, if at all. There is situational support as well as 2-0 home favorites are 32-11 ATS vs an 0-2 team since 1980, and if it is a power5 conference team, that jumps to 26-7 ATS. If the 2-0 team is off a 24 or more point win, they are 14-0 ATS in this spot, as well as being 23-3 ATS if their opponent lost their last game by 7 or more points. All Badgers, all the time, lay the lumber, and play on Wisconsin.

There are not a lot of expectations after Cal saw their QB go #1 in the NFL draft, but things may be looking up for the Bears who got a late transfer signing with QB Davis Webb from Texas Tech. Webb immediately took control of the offense going 38-54 for 441 yard at 8.2 yards per attempt vs Hawaii. The Bears have 4 offensive linemen returning, along with 3 backs that all went for over 500 yards a year ago. The defense is still a work in progress, but since coming on board, DC Art Kaufman who inherited a defense that allowed 45.9ppg the year prior to his arrival has taken those numbers down to 39.8ppg in his first year, and 30.7ppg a year ago. I expect the offense to be as good as ever, and the defense improving a bit more. San Diego St. opened with an as expected easy win 31-0 vs New Hampshire. The running game will be the strength of the offense, but the receiving corp is limited, and Pumphrey led the team with just 28 catches a year ago. It has been a huge challenge over the years for San Diego St. going up against the Pac-12 where they are a pathetic 5-43-1 SU. They lost to Oregon St. 28-7 in 2014, and last year were crushed by this same Cal team 35-7. They are 1-23 SU vs the Pac-12 since 1995, beating a 4-8 Washington St. team in 2011 for their only win. Make the play on California.

The Boise St. Broncos failed to win 10 games last season for just the 2nd time in the last 10 years. What is more ominous is it is the 2nd time in 3 years, after this program went 70-8 SU. Bryan Harsin does not appear to be bringing the same type of team to the field, and Boise St. who was on a 100-4 SU mark at home, went 4-2 here last year, and for the first time lost 2 straight on the Smurf Turf. The offense is loaded, but the defense has some serious issues with just 1 defensive lineman returning, and the corner back position has some issues as well. That is a dangerous situation going up against Washington St, and QB Luke Falk. Falk threw for over 4500 yards a year ago, with 38 TD's and 8 INT's. WR Gabe Marks shunned the NFL, to chase a Rose Bowl dream, and this will be one of the most potent offenses in the country. the Cougars went from 3 wins in 2014 to 9 a year ago, and could be a dark horse in the Pac-12. Alex Grinch took over the defense last year, making huge gains. he took a team that allowed 38.6ppg in 2014, down to 27.7ppg last year. he also took over a team that forced just 8 turnovers in 2014, and tripled it to 24 a year ago. Washington St. lost to E. Washington in their opener, but don't forget, they lost to Portland St. in their opener a year ago, and then went on to win at Oregon, UCLA, and Arizona. Make the play on Washington St.