Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-25-24 | Lakers +4 v. Suns | 113-123 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Winners in seven of their last nine, the Los Angeles Lakers look to keep rolling today when they visit the Phoenix Suns in a matchup with Western Conference playoff implications. Phoenix sits in eighth place in the West, 2.5 games ahead of Los Angeles, after both sides returned from the All-Star break with back-to-backs on Thursday and Friday. The Lakers look to close out the season series with a 4-1 advantage. Los Angeles took three from Phoenix early in the season on Oct. 26, Nov. 10 and an in-season tournament contest on Dec. 5, but the Suns won the most recent meeting on Jan. 11. |
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02-24-24 | Nets v. Wolves -7.5 | 86-101 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I think the Nets don’t stand a chance in this matchup even though the Timberwolves play on the second night of a back-to-back, coming off a tough battle versus the Bucks. The Nets have been bad of late. Over their last two outings, the Nets have allowed a staggering 257 points while scoring just 179 in return. Brooklyn is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 encounters with the Timberwolves. The Nets have only covered once over their previous seven games overall, and I expect them to continue to struggle when they take on one of the best teams in the league. |
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02-23-24 | Suns -3.5 v. Rockets | 110-114 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Suns have won five of their last six games and three of their last five road games. They have played well offensively on the road, scoring more than 117 points per game while making 50 percent of their shots. They have also done a good job at the charity stripe, making over 80 percent of their free throws. They rebound the ball well and they’re grabbing more than 10 offensive rebounds per game on the road, so expect them to get a lot of second-chance opportunities in this game. The Rockets have struggled defensively in recent games, giving up more than 115 points per game in their last three games, and will have a hard time slowing down the Suns in this game. The Rockets have lost five of their last six games. They have played well offensively at home, scoring more than 115 points per game. They struggled at the charity stripe in recent games, making less than 70 percent of their free throws in their last three games. Their rebounding has been very good and it will give them a chance in this game, but they’ve been careless with the ball, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Suns, who averaged more than 11 steals per game in their last three games. The Suns have also struggled defensively, but they played better in their last three games and will keep Houston’s offense in check. Go with Phoenix to cover the spread. |
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02-23-24 | Clippers v. Grizzlies +9.5 | 101-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Memphis went into the break with two straight wins as they took down Milwaukee at home in their previous contest. The Grizzlies entered Thursday 20-36 on the season and stood fourth in the Southwest Division, 13.5 games behind the Pelicans for the top spot. They were 13th in the Western Conference standings, 19.5 games behind the Timberwolves for the top spot, 13 games behind the Pelicans for the final guaranteed playoff spot and 8.5 games behind the Warriors for the final spot in the play-in tournament. |
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02-23-24 | Raptors +7 v. Hawks | Top | 123-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units Toronto takes the court with a same-season double revenge chip on its shoulder, including a one-point nip-job here in a 126-125 loss when the Hawks scored on a put-back with one second remaining in the game. Furthermore, they will enter the fray sporting an 8-1 ATS mark in this series as an avenging visitor. On the other side of the court sits the Hawks, a team that has struggled mightily this season in home games, including a jaw-dropping 1-15 ATS record in division contests. Atlanta is an anemic 1-5 SUATS against sub. 600 foes in games in which the Hawks are playing with a week off in between games. Finally, playing against any NBA team during the regular season with 7 or more days of rest when facing an unrested opponent is 10-1-1 ATS. |
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02-22-24 | Suns v. Mavs -140 | 113-123 | Win | 100 | 60 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Mavs entered the All-Star break on a badly needed 6-game win skein and suddenly find themselves back in the thick of the Western Conference playoff chase, currently one game back of the 5th-seeded Suns. They bring a smart 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS log in this series, looking to avenge a 132-109 beatdown they suffered here against Phoenix a month ago. Meanwhile for as hot as the Suns are perceived to be this season, they are only 6-14-1 ATS against opponents coming off a SUATS win, including 1-6-1 ATS when the Valley of the Sun is not coming off a double-digit win. Finally, Phoenix is a long-term 91-125-8 ATS in games against foes seeking revenge from a same-season loss of 20 or more points, including 0-7-1 ATS the last eight games. |
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02-22-24 | Magic +7.5 v. Cavs | 116-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is too many points to spot the best team in the NBA at covering spreads. Orlando is 36-19 against the spread this season, that is a success rate of 65.5%, better than any other team as the Thunder are second at 62.3%. Orlando covered three of their last four games before the break, and often win when listed as big underdogs as they did against Minnesota as 6.5 point dogs and against the Knicks when they were getting 5.5 points. Cleveland is big, but Orlando has been toying with massive lineups, inserting Jonathan Isaac and making Franz Wagner a 6'10 2-guard. Size will not be an issue for the Magic. Orlando's 4th ranked defense will not allow Cleveland to run up the score, and all their size inside will limit the production or Mobley and Allen in the paint. Banchero is having a monster year for the Magic, he is more physical than Mobley and too fast for Allen, he will be a matchup nightmare for Cleveland. The Magic are the best team in the league at covering spreads, they are well rested, and will keep this one close. |
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02-22-24 | Knicks v. 76ers | Top | 110-96 | Loss | -113 | 60 h 49 m | Show |
NBA Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units 76ers figure to be anxious to avenge their worst loss of the season, a 128-92 thumping on this floor in early January. With it, they bring a sterling 7-1 ATS ledger into this game when sporting same-season revenge from a loss of 13 or more points this campaign. They’ve also beat New York like a drum of late, going 20-7 SU and 16-10-1 ATS in the last seven seasons. On the flip side, the Knickerbockers are just 3-9 SU and 3-8-1 ATS against well-rested foes that are playing with 7-plus days of rest. With New York riding a rocky 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS mark heading into the All-Star break, it’s time to seal this deal with the fact that Philadelphia is 109-14-1 ATS in division games it wins outright when playing with same-season loss revenge, including 73-6 ATS when coming off a loss. |
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02-14-24 | Clippers v. Warriors -144 | 130-125 | Loss | -144 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Clippers beat the Warriors twice at home in December, 113-112 and 121-113. Back on November 30, the Warriors defeated the Clippers 120-114 as 2-point favorites at Chase Center. At the moment, both teams are playing at a high level, so I expect another tight battle between LA and Golden State. The Warriors have only dropped one of their previous eight contests. Stephen Curry has been unstoppable during that stretch, averaging 31.5 points on 50.0% shooting from beyond the arc. I like what I see from the Warriors, so give me Golden State plus points. The Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall and 5-3 ATS in their previous eight dates with the Clippers, who are 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall. |
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02-14-24 | Lakers v. Jazz -5.5 | 138-122 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Keep tracking the injury report because the Lakers might decide to rest some of their players. Hopefully, LeBron James and Anthony Davis will be ready to go. I want to see D’Angelo Russell in the lineup, too, as he’s averaged 24.0 points and 6.6 dimes over his last ten outings. |
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02-14-24 | Heat v. 76ers -155 | 109-104 | Loss | -155 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Embiid (knee), Harris (hip), Batum (hamstring), Melton (back) and Covington (knee) will remain out on Wednesday, and the Sixers won't have their latest acquisition available either. Six-time All-Star Kyle Lowry, who recently received a buyout from the Charlotte Hornets, officially signed with Philadelphia on Tuesday. Lowry averaged 8.2 points and four rebounds in 37 games (35 starts) for the Heat this season before he was traded to Charlotte on Jan. 23. He never got into a game for the Hornets, which is why the 76ers ruled out his chance to oppose his former Heat teammates as he needs to work back into game shape. |
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02-14-24 | Knicks +3.5 v. Magic | Top | 100-118 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units New York is 4-1 ATS away in its last five road games with same-season double revenge. They are also an eye-popping 55-1 ATS in their last fifty-six road wins, including 41-0 ATS in the last 41 games (18-0 ATS as a favorite). Whew. Toss in Orlando’s 2-23-1 ATS ledger in its last twenty-six home defeats (2-13-1 ATS as a dog). Finally, the Knicks are 4-0 SUATS in this series with same-season double revenge by an average win margin of 16 PPG |
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02-13-24 | Kings +5.5 v. Suns | 125-130 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Sacramento Kings will go for a season-series win over the host Phoenix Suns when two of the top teams in the Pacific Division face off on Tuesday night for the fourth of five regular-season meetings. By virtue of a late schedule addition brought about by the NBA in-season tournament, the Suns got the advantage of hosting the Kings three times this season. But they gave away that home-court edge when they were beaten 114-106 in Phoenix on Dec. 8 in the first meeting between the teams. The clubs have since split a pair of games, each winning at home, and now each also has one home date remaining in the five-game season series. Domantas Sabonis and De'Aaron Fox have been the driving forces in the Kings' success against the Suns this season. Sabonis has recorded triple-doubles in each of the past two meetings and has averaged 21.3 points, 13.3 rebounds and 9.3 assists over the three games, while Fox has gone for an average of 30.0 points. |
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02-13-24 | Heat +8.5 v. Bucks | 123-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We’re riding the Heat again as they enter the All-Star break with positive momentum in hopes of a second-half turnaround. And for the second time in two games, they’ll be looking to even things up from a pair of same-season defeats. With it, Erik Spoelstra’s troops enter with an 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS log on this floor when seeking double revenge with a winning record. Flipping the script, the Bucks are 1-5 ATS of late against same-season double avengers, including 0-3 ATS in the last three games as a host. |
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02-13-24 | Thunder -145 v. Magic | 127-113 | Win | 100 | 3 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Thunder come into this matchup with one of the more well-rounded teams in the NBA. They are fifth in the NBA in scoring offense and are ranked third in the NBA in field goal defense. The Magic are more reliant on their defense to compete, ranking well below average in several offensive categories including points per game, three-point shooting, and three-point field goals per game. The Thunder, meanwhile, are in the top ten in field goal defense and are a respectable 13th in the NBA in 3-point defense. The Thunder also protect the ball well, ranked fourth in the league in fewest turnovers per game. I like the Thunder to roll here against a Magic team that has cooled off in recent weeks. |
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02-12-24 | Nuggets v. Bucks -104 | 95-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units We’re looking at a matchup of a pair of teams that are considered among the elite squads in their respective conferences. Denver was flattened by Sacramento Friday night but they hope to have Porter Jr. and Caldwell-Pope back in the mix for this contest. Milwaukee rolled past a weak Charlotte squad without Middleton, giving them a chance to play their reserves while giving their starters a breather. Missing Middleton is a tough one for the Bucks but it gives guys like Portis and Beasley more opportunity to run. The Bucks are a solid 22-6 at home this season while the Bucks are 15-13 on the road. With the Nuggets potentially missing two starters, that puts too much pressure on Jokic and Murray to shoulder the load. Look for Milwaukee to come up with the victory in this contest. |
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02-12-24 | Pacers -11 v. Hornets | 102-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pacers, who should feel confident arriving in Charlotte, also might look different from a meeting earlier this month. They'll be back in Charlotte after winning there 115-99 on Feb. 4. That was the Hornets' second-lowest scoring output in their last nine home games. Indiana added forward Doug McDermott -- who played three seasons there (ending in 2020-21) -- in a trade with San Antonio. Even though he was scoreless in limited playing time at New York on Saturday, he should make an impact. The Pacers also have another factor that could work in their favor from the previous matchup with Charlotte. Point guard Tyrese Haliburton was on a minutes restriction coming off an injury, but he has worked his way up to logging 30 minutes a contest. His 22 points vs. the Knicks marked his largest output in his last 11 games. |
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02-10-24 | Cavs -8 v. Raptors | 119-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cleveland has won eight straight and most of those games were played without their second and third leading scorers Darius Garland and Evan Mobley, who are both back and healthy. Cleveland's defense is second best in points allowed at 109.3 and 4th best in field goal shooting percentage allowed at 45.4. Toronto is 19th in points allowed, 23rd in field goal shooting percentage allowed and 22nd in 3-point shooting percentage allowed. Toronto has several new faces in the lineup from trades and that will take time for the players to mesh as a unit giving Cleveland an additional advantage on Saturday. Cleveland's back court of Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland are scoring a combined average of 47.1 points per game and handing out a combined total of 12 assists per contest. On defense, the two are combining to average 3.3 steals per game. |
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02-10-24 | 76ers v. Wizards +4.5 | 119-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The 76ers are juggling new pieces into their rotation after making several deals at the trade deadline. Coupling that with the slew of injuries that the team has and things are a little murkier for Philadelphia. The hope at the moment is that Embiid will return for a playoff run but even that is cloudy at this point. |
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02-10-24 | Spurs v. Nets -5.5 | 103-123 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Brooklyn dealt away several pieces ahead of the trade deadline but they are still hanging around the fringes of the play-in tournament field in the Eastern Conference standings. The Nets hope that they can find a way to make up ground but it could be tough sledding. Fortunately, they get a soft team here in the Spurs, who have dropped six straight contests and who are just 5-21 on the road this season. San Antonio has struggled defensively, even with the addition of Wembanyama to their rotation. This is the kind of game that the Nets need to win if they have any hopes of making a push for the postseason. Look for Brooklyn to claw out a victory in this one to get back in the win column. |
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02-09-24 | Pelicans v. Lakers UNDER 233.5 | 122-139 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Lakers don’t lean on 3-point shooting (35.1, 28th in 3-point rate), but they love to pick up the pace (101.0 possessions per 48 minutes, 6th). On the other side, the Pelicans are 25th in the league in 3-point rate (36.5) and 17th in pace (98.7). The total has gone under in four of the Pelicans’ last five outings, and I would ride this betting trend. As mentioned, the Pels have done a great defensive job lately, and I expect to see more of the same when they take on the Lakers. Six of the previous ten encounters between the Pels and Lakers have gone under. |
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02-09-24 | Hawks v. 76ers +3 | Top | 127-121 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
NBA Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units The primary difference between these two squads has been their performance in conference play this season where Philly stands 19-11 SU and 18-10 ATS overall, while the southbound and down birds are 13-20 SU and 7-26 ATS (more below). The 76ers were 5-0 SUATS in this series until Atlanta pulled the rug out on them in a 139-132 loss a month ago. Inside this series, Philadelphia is 4-0 SUATS with same-season revenge from a loss of 4 or more points. With the Hawks arriving off a get even rematch at Boston and a puny 3-15 ATS in Celtics follow ups versus avenging opposition. Finally, Atlanta is 0-8 ATS this season versus .400 or greater foes with same-season revenge |
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02-07-24 | Pistons v. Kings -12.5 | 133-120 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pistons have done a great job covering the spread lately, but I expect them to slow down at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento. The Kings’ offense will be too much for Detroit. Sacramento is third in the league in 3-pointers per 100 possessions (14.8) and seventh in effective field goal percentage (56.3%). Back on January 9, the Kings cruised past the Pistons 131-110, covering an 11-point spread on the road. Sacramento made 57.4% of its field goals, and Domantas Sabonis went off for 37 points, 13 assists, and ten rebounds. I expect more of the same when the Kings host the Pistons. |
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02-07-24 | Pelicans +7.5 v. Clippers | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pelicans arrive at Los Angeles on a three-game winning streak and will provide a stern test for that Clippers defense while coming off a 138-100 home victory over the Toronto Raptors on Monday. It was New Orleans' fifth-highest scoring game of the season, just two weeks removed from a 153-point game against the Utah Jazz. Brandon Ingram scored a season-high 41 points to go along with nine assists for New Orleans on Monday, while CJ McCollum had 20 points. The Pelicans shot 51 percent from the floor. Ingram's dominant performance included 8-of-11 shooting from 3-point range and no turnovers in 30 minutes. Ingram made five of his 3-pointers during a short burst of the third quarter, when the team went 10 of 14 from distance. While Ingram has averaged 21.8 points in 46 games this season, Zion Williamson leads the team with an average of 22.1 points across 40 games. McCollum posts 19.2 points per contest and has played in 36 games. |
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02-07-24 | Spurs +8.5 v. Heat | 104-116 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units What a difference a year makes. The new-look Spurs, led by 7’4” rookie phenom Victor Wembanyama, got out of the gates like a turtle stuck in molasses at 5-27 SU and 12-20 ATS in games before the New Year rolled in. They’ve picked up the pace since, though, riding a 5-11 SU and 10-5-1 ATS mark over their next sixteen games. They invade South Beach tonight, where Miami’s fall from grace has been dramatic as they’ve gone from Miami Nice to Miami Vice in the blink of an eye after encountering a 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS slide in mid-January. The Heat checks in off a revenge contest here against Orlando last night, with another same-season revenge battle on tap with Boston. |
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02-07-24 | Hawks v. Celtics -11.5 | 117-125 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Atlanta Hawks are poor on the road. They only have 10 wins in 24 road games on the season. The Boston Celtics are incredible at home, going 23-3. The Hawks’ defense won’t hold up against this Celtics squad. The Hawks continue to give up a ton of points. They are conceding 120 points per 100 possessions compared to only 110 points per 100 by the Celtics. Also, Boston will shine in the offensive end. They are shooting 37.9% from beyond the arc and the Hawks are pegged 28th in the NBA in three-point defense. Defensively the Celtics remain difficult to solve, allowing an average of only 111 points in their last five games. |
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02-06-24 | Grizzlies v. Knicks -14.5 | 113-123 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The New York Knicks are on the rise and a loss to the Lakers on Sunday will not derail them against this Grizzlies team. The Grizzlies are without their two best players coming into the season as well as Marcus Smart and potentially Jackson on Tuesday night as well. The Knicks have tightened up their rotation since picking up Anunoby and their defense has shown vast improvement as well, particularly in the halfcourt offense. The defense won't be taxed on Tuesday night against a Grizzlies team that is last in the NBA in scoring and field goal percentage. The Knicks' offense isn't as potent as the Celtics', who pup up 131 points against the Grizzlies on Sunday, but the Knicks will easily outpace the Grizzlies at home tonight. |
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02-06-24 | Mavs -135 v. Nets | 119-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mavericks, who are eighth in the Western Conference, own a 5-8 record since winning three straight Jan. 3-7. Dallas lost four of the six games Irving missed due to a sprained right thumb before he returned Monday and produced 23 points and eight assists in 35 minutes at Philadelphia. The team Irving left is in worse shape, as the Nets are nine games under .500 and in 11th in the Eastern Conference. Both Dinwiddie and Finney-Smith are rumored to be on the trading block ahead of the Thursday deadline, as the Nets are 7-19 in their past 26 games. |
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02-05-24 | Raptors +11.5 v. Pelicans | 100-138 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The New Orleans Pelicans (28-21; 24-21-1 ATS) snapped a three-game skid last Wednesday, outlasting the Houston Rockets 110-99. Two days later, the Pels wrapped up a four-game road trip with a 114-113 victory at the San Antonio Spurs. The Pelicans barely edged the lowly Spurs as firm 8.5-point favorites. |
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02-05-24 | Warriors v. Nets -136 | 109-98 | Loss | -136 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It doesn’t help that a pair of All-Stars – Chris Paul and Draymond Green – are out of the lineup, either. The Nets have problems of their own, yet they own a noteworthy home-road dichotomy this campaign, going 14-9-2 ATS at home as opposed to 8-14 ATS away at press time. With the Warriors likely eyeing the Sixers, up next on Wednesday and 1-6 ATS before facing Philly, and the Nets 5-1 ATS as non-conference home dogs with same-season revenge we're on the Nets. |
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02-05-24 | Clippers -145 v. Hawks | 149-144 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Even in the second half of a back-to-back, this game is Los Angeles' to lose assuming that they leave Miami without any injuries. Atlanta's defense is not equipped to slow down the Clippers offense. The Hawks also won't have their leading rebounder, Clint Capela, which will hurt them a lot. An Atlanta offense that struggles with efficiency won't fare well against the Los Angeles defense that forces misses everywhere. The Hawks are 7-18-0 ATS at home, so they don't even have that going for them. Take the Clippers to win and cover the spread. |
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02-04-24 | Bucks v. Jazz | 108-123 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Milwaukee checks in after playing in Dallas last night. It’s also a series in which the Jazz have dominated, winning 132-116 as an 8-point dog in Milwaukee. Meanwhile, the Bucks went into the Big D last night with a sorry 8-14 ATS road ledger this season, including 0-4 SUATS in non-conference clashes. Finally, Utah is 19-2 SU and 17-4 ATS at home against Milwaukee, including 3-0 SUATS when the Bucks arrive without rest. |
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02-04-24 | Raptors v. Thunder -8.5 | 127-135 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Thunder have won two straight games and nine of their last 10 home games. They have played well offensively at home, scoring more than 122 points per game while making over 50 percent of their shots. They’ve also done a good job at the charity stripe, making over 83 percent of their free throws. They rebound the ball well and they’re aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring chances. The Raptors have struggled defensively and they play worse on the road, giving up more than 120 points per game, and will have a hard time slowing down the Thunder in this game. The Raptors have lost six of their last seven games and six of their last seven road games. They have played well offensively, scoring more than 116 points per game on the road. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Thunder and won’t get a lot of extra-scoring chances against them. They’ve also been careless with the ball, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Thunder, who average more than eight steals per game. The Thunder have done a great job defensively in recent games and held their last three opponents under 105 points per game, so expect them to keep Toronto’s offense in check. Go with Oklahoma City to cover the spread. |
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02-04-24 | Clippers -165 v. Heat | 103-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Clippers are a bad matchup for the Heat. Miami does not possess very athletic wings except for Jimmy Butler. Leonard and George will have their way with the Heat on the offensive end much like the Celtics did recently with their high-scoring wing duo of Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. The Clippers, like Boston, shoot the 3-ball very well also, which will be a problem for the Heat. Leonard is back to playing shutdown defense, healthier than he's been in any of the last few seasons. He will likely have some floor time covering Butler which could slow down the Heat's most prolific scorer. George is also an above-average defender and will likely be tasked with slowing down Tyler Herro. The Heat's two advantages in the game will be through Adebayo and Rozier but Adebayo is not a high-leverage scorer and Rozier has been off to a slow start on the offensive end for the Heat. The Clippers will roll to a win on Sunday. |
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02-03-24 | Lakers +4.5 v. Knicks | Top | 113-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units The Lakers will be looking to even the score against New York from a five point home loss as five-point home chalk back in December, knowing they are riding an 8-1 ATS streak as non-conference dogs in same-season revenge. The Knicks are 0-8 ATS as a home favorite coming off a same-season revenge win over the Pacers. Finally, playing on LeBron James when his team’s win-loss is .500 is 8-1 ATS. |
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02-03-24 | Nets v. 76ers -170 | 136-121 | Loss | -170 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are dealing with some injury issues but the 76ers have been better suited to working through those issues. Maxey comes in off a career-high 51 points in their win over the Jazz as he was named an All-Star for the first time in his career. The 76ers have capable scoring options to work around the Embiid injury with Harris and Oubre Jr. looked at to step up and contribute. Brooklyn has sputtered and got Simmons back for all of one game before he was injured again, which doesn’t help matters at all either. The Nets are just 7-15 on the road this season and the 76ers have dominated this series of late with nine straight wins. Playing at home, you have to back them to make it 10 straight triumphs as they take care of business. |
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02-02-24 | Hornets v. Thunder -15.5 | 106-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units OKC's most glaring flaw on both ends of the floor is rebounding. The defense also tends to send opponents to the free throw line. The Hornets are a subpar rebounding team and the worst team at getting to the free throw line. They aren't equipped to take advantage of the Thunder's weaknesses. That is why this game should be a blowout, especially since it's in Paycom Center where OKC is a much better squad. The Thunder are 18-6 (16-8-0 ATS) at home. That, paired with all of the other clear edges, won't make for a competitive game. Take OKC to cover the spread. |
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02-02-24 | Suns -150 v. Hawks | 120-129 | Loss | -150 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams come in with win streaks going for them but the fact remains that one team is solidly in the playoff picture while the other is hanging on for dear life. The Suns, when they are healthy, have a dangerous unit led by the trio of Durant, Booker and Beal, though that’s been a challenge this season. Atlanta is in a dicey situation as it’s unclear as to whether the team will be a buyer or a seller at the trade deadline. The Hawks have not been great at home this season, posting a 10-13 mark entering this game. Atlanta has a little bit of a rest advantage at this point but the Suns are the better team. Look for Phoenix to take care of business here as they take advantage of an unimpressive Atlanta squad to put this game in the win column. |
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01-28-24 | Suns v. Magic +1.5 | 98-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Suns are 16-27-2 against the spread as they come into this game. Likewise, they are 9-10-1 against the spread on the road. The Suns are just 8-16-1 against the spread when they have equal rest. Moreover, they are 3-9-2 against the spread against nonconference teams. While The Magic are 28-17 against the spread. Additionally, they are 13-7 against the spread at Amway Arena. The Magic are 17-4 against the spread when they have had equal rest. Also, they are 9-6 against the spread against nonconference teams. The Magic are almost finally healthy again with Wagner back. Therefore, they can play to their full potential. Banchero is their best player. Currently, he is averaging 22.5 points per game while shooting 45 percent from the field. Wagner is averaging 20.7 points per game while shooting 46.8 percent from the field. Thus, he will be a focal part of the team. |
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01-27-24 | Lakers +1.5 v. Warriors | 145-144 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Lakers have won four of their last six games. They have been on a roll offensively in recent games, scoring more than 130 points per game in their last three games while making over 54 percent of their shots and 46 percent of their three-pointers. They’ve done a good job rebounding the ball and they’re aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring chances. The Warriors have struggled defensively this season and they gave up more than 120 points per game in their last three games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Lakers in this game. The Warriors have lost three of their last four games and four of their last six home games. They have played well offensively at home, scoring more than 117 points per game at home. Their rebounding has been good and it will keep them in this game, but they’ve been careless with the ball, which will give the Lakers, who averaged more than nine steals per game in their last three games, easy-scoring opportunities. The Lakers aren’t great defensively, but they’ve done a better job in recent games and will keep Golden State’s offense in check. Go with Los Angeles to cover the spread. |
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01-27-24 | Rockets v. Nets -175 | 104-106 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Houston is playing the second game of a back-to-back situation here, which has been a tough spot for them this season. The Rockets entered Friday losers of five of their previous six and they have gone just 4-15 on the road entering the game with the Hornets. Brooklyn has dropped three straight and seven of their last eight games coming into this one. The Nets do have the rest advantage, having played Thursday at home before having Friday off, while Houston had to play Friday and then fly in after the game against Charlotte. Even with a young team like Houston, that can take a toll on you. The Rockets have been grounded on the road and in the second game of a back-to-back set, you can’t have a ton of enthusiasm about them here. Lean toward the Nets in this contest. |
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01-27-24 | 76ers +5.5 v. Nuggets | 105-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The fact that the Nuggets struggle mightily in this series is an influencer, too, given their naughty 6-20-1 ATS mark. And yes, the gold-diggers return home off their worst loss of the season in a 122-84 beatdown at the Knicks, yet they are a paltry 2-5 ATS as home chalk of more than 4 points when coming off a 5-plus road trip. On the other side of the court, Philly has won six of its last seven games and is 8-2 ATS against greater than .600 foes this season, as well as a stellar 15-5 SU and 4-6-1 ATS this campaign when coming off a win and facing a foe coming off a loss. Finally, Denver is 0-10 ATS in this series with revenge from a single-digit same-season loss. |
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01-26-24 | Magic -5 v. Grizzlies | 106-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units One weird thing about Memphis this season is that they're worse at home. The Grizzlies have a 4-15 record (5-14-0 ATS) in FedEx Forum. Although their recent road wins were nice, fading them on their home court is the smart play. Especially since Orlando does everything that the Grizzlies do better. The Magic rely on their defense, which is stronger, and have a struggling offense that outperforms Memphis'. Orlando will earn a much-needed win, covering the spread in the process. |
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01-26-24 | Clippers v. Raptors +7.5 | 127-107 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Raptors catch the Clippers in an ideal scheduling spot tonight, and they’ll be happy to oblige. For openers, the Clips arrive off a monster double revenge showdown at home against the Lakers on Tuesday, with yet another same-reason avenger on tap at Boston tomorrow from a 37-point home loss they suffered against the Celtics two days prior to Christmas. Hence, it’s no surprise to learn they are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in post-Laker operatives, while just 18-26 SU and 18-24 ATS away before Beantown bashes. With the Dinosaurs 16-8-1 ATS as a host in this series, including 5-1 ATS when taking points, we’re all over this. |
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01-26-24 | Mavs -130 v. Hawks | 148-143 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are struggling at the moment as each team comes in with three straight losses on the books. There are injury issues on both sides with the Hawks missing a pair of starters in Hunter and Young while Irving is a question mark for Dallas here. Atlanta has been brutal on the defensive end of the floor, giving up an average of 124 points in their last three games, which is slightly worse than their season-long number, which is third-worst in the league. The Hawks are at home, so they have that going for them, but they are just 8-12 as the hosts this season. Trying to stop Doncic is a tough task for anyone, much less a team that is seemingly checked out on that end of the floor. Look for this game to go to the visitors. |
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01-25-24 | Kings -123 v. Warriors | 134-133 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Kings have only won two of their last eight encounters with the Warriors. Sacramento is only 1-9 SU in its past ten trips to Chase Center, but the Kings have covered the spread in six of their previous seven road contests against the Warriors, who’ll play on the second night of a back-to-back today. I like the Kings in this spot. Domantas Sabonis, who posted a 14-point, 21-rebound double-double against the Hawks last Monday, will torture the Warriors at the low post. Golden State’s interior defense has been pretty bad so far this season (22nd in opposing 2-point percentage, 55.5%), and the Warriors will have to improve a lot if they want to beat the Kings. |
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01-25-24 | Nuggets v. Knicks +2.5 | 84-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Knicks are now 10-2 since acquiring Anunoby from Toronto. They hope to keep the wins coming on Thursday against the Nuggets. The Knicks are 16th in the NBA in scoring offense this season. They are 20th in field goal percentage and 11th in 3-point shooting. The Knicks do rely heavily on the 3-point shot, ranked 10th in the NBA in 3-point field goals made per game. New York is third in the NBA in scoring defense this season. They are 15th in field goal defense and 15th in 3-point defense. Despite not having a dominant center, the Knicks are second in the NBA in rebounds per game. They are just 18th in the NBA in turnovers per game. |
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01-25-24 | 76ers -5.5 v. Pacers | 122-134 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Sixers will take the court with a 21-7 ATS mark as a favorite this season. With the Pacers in the middle of a brutal stretch in their schedule – off Denver and Phoenix with Phoenix and Memphis coming up, don’t be surprised to see them ‘rode hard an put away wet’ during this span. |
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01-24-24 | Hawks v. Warriors -6.5 | 112-134 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I expect the struggling Warriors to play this game for their late assistant coach. They are not a great defensive team by any stretch of the imagination, but the Hawks are arguably even worse, so I like the Warriors in this spot. The Hawks struggle to defend the 3-point line, so keep your eyes on Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. When it comes to covering the spread, Atlanta has been a complete disaster so far this season, and I expect to see more of the same when the Hawks take on the Warriors. The Hawks are 4-12 ATS in their past 16 games overall. |
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01-24-24 | Thunder v. Spurs +7.5 | 140-114 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units San Antonio is averaging 112.8 points per game. They scored 133 points in their last game, making 46.2 percent of their field goals and 31.7 percent of their three-pointers. Victor Wembanyama led the Spurs with 33 points and seven rebounds. Devin Vassell finished with 22 points, four rebounds, and nine assists, while Jeremy Sochan added 14 points, eight rebounds, and four assists. |
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01-24-24 | Cavs +6.5 v. Bucks | 116-126 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cleveland is one of the hottest teams in the league as they come in on an eight game win streak. The streak is impressive, but they were listed as the favorite in every game in the stretch, including wins over the Spurs, Nets, Hawks, Magic and two games against the Wizards. Included in the stretch was a win over Milwaukee, they were two point favorites but ended up winning the game by 40. In their most recent game, the Cavs were led by Sam Merrill who knocked down eight threes off the bench and finished with 26 points in the win over Orlando. |
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01-24-24 | Wolves -10.5 v. Wizards | 118-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Minnesota Timberwolves are not happy after a home loss against the Hornets and will rebound here. The Washington Wizards continue to stumble. They have just one victory this month. They have lost to the Pistons and Spurs within the last week. Minnesota is the best defensive squad in the entire NBA while the Wizards are the worst. Minnesota is only conceding 109 points per 100 possessions, ranking them 1st in defensive rating while the Wizards are squandering 120.8 points per 100, pegging them 29th. Minnesota has conceded 105 or fewer points in three of their last five games. Three of the Timberwolves' last five wins have occurred by at least 15 points. |
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01-23-24 | Lakers v. Clippers -8.5 | Top | 116-127 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week Rating: 5 Units When James Harden joined the Clippers in November, Erik Spoelstra said he didn’t know exactly how Harden would fit alongside Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, and Russell Westbrook, but had faith Lue would find a way. And he has. As a result, they are now the T-Lue Clippers, currently resting a game behind the Denver Nuggets for the third sport in the Western Conference playoff chase. Despite dropping the last two games in the series to King James and company, the Clips bring an 11-3 SUATS overall mark in Lakers showdowns the past four seasons. Finally, the Clippers are 9-0 ATS at home in this series when taking the court with same-season double revenge. |
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01-23-24 | Nuggets v. Pacers +5 | 114-109 | Push | 0 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pacers raced out to a strong start this season thanks to outstanding point guard play from All-Star Tyrese Halliburton. Halliburton leads the team in points per game and assists but has been sidelined in six of the past seven games with a hamstring injury. The Pacers are just 2-4 with Halliburton out but he appears to be returning tonight. For the season, the Pacers rank first in the NBA in scoring offense. They are second in field goal percentage and fifth in 3-point field goal percentage. The Pacers are also sixth in the league in 3-point field goals made per game. |
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01-22-24 | Spurs v. 76ers -14.5 | 123-133 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units San Antonio is a team that is going nowhere this season as they continue on their rebuilding project. The Spurs are well outside the playoff picture and are the worst team in the Western Conference. San Antonio is just 5-18 on the road and they stand 23rd in field goal percentage defense (48.7%), 28th in threes allowed per game (14.1) and 28th in three-point defense (38.8%) this season. Embiid has run his streak of 30-point games to 20 after hitting that mark against Charlotte Saturday night. The 76ers are always tough at home and they should have enough firepower to take down the Spurs in this contest. |
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01-22-24 | Cavs -105 v. Magic | Top | 126-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
NBA Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Following a lethargic 13-11 SU and 10-13-1 ATS start to the season, Cleveland has rebounded and will carry an 11-3 SU and 10-3-1 ATS mark into Orlando, where they will look to extract a healthy measure of revenge from a 10-point loss in Orlando when they last met in mid- December. They bring the league’s No. 2 Scoring Defense and No. 5 Defensive Field Goal Percentage into this fray; knowing they catch the Magic off a double revenger from the night before on the same floor against Miami. On the other side of the court, the Magic bring a measly 1-4 SUATS record in the game as an unrested host coming off a home contest. Finally, Cleveland is 6-1 SUATS this season in games with same-season revenge this season, including 5-0 SUATS versus sub .770 foes |
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01-20-24 | Thunder v. Wolves -140 | 102-97 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The top two teams in the Western Conference lock horns in the Twin Cities tonight, where the Timberwolves will be anxious to make amends from a 23-point beatdown they suffered in Oklahoma the day after Christmas. Minnesota is 5-1 ATS at home when looking to even up a 20-point same-season loss. With it, the Wolves enter with the top-scoring defense in the loop, while also ranking No. 5 in Defensive field Goal Percentage. Given the Thunder’s paltry 0-9 SU and 2-6-1 ATS mark in road games after usurping Utah, we’ll ride the Big KAT – Karl-Anthony Towns - to the pay window. Finally, Minnesota is 12-3 SU and 10-5 ATS this season with same-season revenge, including 4-0 SUATS versus .600 or greater foes. |
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01-20-24 | Cavs -135 v. Hawks | 116-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cleveland has won each of its last six games and the Cavaliers are 5-1 against the spread over that same span. Cleveland has moved up to 2nd in points allowed in the NBA at 110.3 points per game and is scoring enough though their second and third leading scorers are sidelined with injuries. Atlanta is giving up far too many points, allowing an average of 123.0 points per game on 50.1% shooting. Atlanta also has its share of injuries as DeAndre Hunter is out and Hunter is 4th in scoring. Atlanta's Dejounte Murray has been named in several trade rumors for Atlanta which could cause the talented guard to be distracted as well as his teammates. Atlanta will be playing the second half of a back-to-back and the Hawks have failed to cover the number in 10 of their last 13 overall. When playing against a team from the Eastern Conference, Atlanta has failed to cover the spread in 10 of the last 11. |
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01-19-24 | Hawks v. Heat -6.5 | 109-108 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Atlanta Hawks have not been reliable on the road where they have lost four of their last five games. The Miami Heat are clicking, winning three of their last four games. The Hawks rely heavily on the scoring to win games but are up against a remarkable Heat defense. The Hawks are allowing 119.3 points per 100 possessions, pegging them 26th in the NBA in defensive rating compared to only 113 points per 100 conceded by the Heat defense. Miami has shined against Atlanta this season, going 2-0, and winning the meetings by eight and nine points respectively. Also, each of the Hawks' last five defeats have occurred by at least seven points. |
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01-19-24 | Nuggets v. Celtics -6 | 102-100 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nuggets have not played as well away from Ball Arena this season (7-14 ATS), failing to cover in three of their four games as road underdogs. One reason for their below-average play away has been their three-point shooting, which drops three percentage points on the road. Given the state of today's NBA, it's tough to cover when you're off the mark from beyond the arc. The Celtics are primed to win this game, riding their hot offensive attack to the finish line. The most efficient offense in the league uses the three-ball like a chainsaw in a horror movie, cutting down its opponents one by one. The C's rank first in three-pointers attempted and sixth in shooting percentage, per Dunks and Threes, an area of the court the Nuggets do not defend well enough (15th in opponent 3PT%). The visitors are stout at the rim (6th in rim defense), but the Celtics rank 29th in rim shot attempts. With Porzingis and White expected to suit up for the Celtics and Gordon likely to play for the Nuggets, basketball fans should expect a competitive game on Friday night in Boston. The trends and analytics point to a Celtics win and cover, which is how I'll be wagering on this potential NBA Finals matchup. |
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01-19-24 | 76ers -5 v. Magic | 124-109 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Embiid is on a war path, and Orlando is on a cold streak, I expect both trends to continue as Philadelphia easily takes this one. I am not an NBA coach, but I am beginning to question Coach Mosley's rotations in Orlando. Franz Wagner is injured, but he still is not playing his best players in his starting lineup, and its not just at one position. The Magic have been starting Chuma Okeke, Houstan, and Goga Bitadze, these players only combine to score exactly 16.0 points per game. That is not enough production for three starters. The Magic have talent they are giving less minutes, players who arguably deserve to start over those three include: Cole Anthony, Moritz Wagner, Wendell Carter Jr., Markelle Fultz, and Jonathan Isaac. You could even make a case for Joe Ingles or Anthony Black. All of those players are healthy, but the Magic continue to start players who produce less. The 76ers are not going to bring Maxey and Harris off the bench, and they will always have a stronger lineup on the court. Orlando does not have a post defender that can stop Embiid here, the big man could very realistically go for 50 again. Even if he doesn't, the 76ers will still roll. |
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01-18-24 | Bulls -130 v. Raptors | 116-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Toronto stands 4-9 SU and 5-8 ATS as of late in this series, including 0-4 ATS without rest. In addition, the Raptors are 0-3 ATS at home on Thursdays without rest in their franchise history. Toronto also finds itself in the middle of a Miami-New York same-season Chicago revenge sandwich. Finally Chicago comes into this one 41-21-1 ATS on Thursdays. |
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01-17-24 | Mavs v. Lakers -165 | 110-127 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A pair of Western Conference foes collide on the parquet floor with a matchup in the City of Angels looking to put up a victory. The Dallas Mavericks are on the road as they travel to take on the Los Angeles Lakers tonight. Dallas rallied to down New Orleans 125-120 at home in their previous contest Monday night, winning outright as a 4.5-point underdog. Los Angeles picked up a 112-105 home win over the Thunder in their previous game Monday night, winning outright as a 2.5-point underdog. In the all-time regular season series between the teams, the Lakers own a 116-57 advantage but the Mavericks have won the last three meetings. That includes a 127-125 home win in the most recent matchup on December 12, 2023. |
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01-17-24 | Bucks -170 v. Cavs | 95-135 | Loss | -170 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units These two teams are the top two squads in the Central Division and have momentum on their side coming into this game. Milwaukee has won three straight while Cleveland has five consecutive wins on the books. This one is going to be interesting as the Bucks are extremely dangerous on the offensive end of the floor and are leaky defensively. On the flip side, Cleveland has been stingy on the defensive end of the floor while they have struggled offensively on the year. We saw the Bucks take the first meeting between the teams this season. Cleveland being minus Garland and Mobley is too much for the Cavaliers to overcome here. Give the advantage to the Bucks as they prevail in this contest. |
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01-16-24 | Kings +4.5 v. Suns | 117-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Kings come into this game with one of the more dynamic offenses in the NBA. They rank ninth in the league in scoring offense. The Kings are 15th field goal shooting and 14th in 3-point shooting. The Kings rely heavily on the 3-point game, ranking third in the league in 3-point field goals per game. Defensively, the Kings are ranked 20th in scoring defense. They are 22nd in field goal defense and just 27th in 3-point defense. The Kings, led by Sabonis, are 11th in the NBA in total rebounds this season. They are 16th in turnovers per game. |
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01-15-24 | Bulls v. Cavs -160 | 91-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cavs come into this game hot and with some rest following Friday afternoon's game in Paris. They are fourth in scoring defense and 10th in 3-point defense. The Cavs' offense has been thriving during this four-game winning streak with a points-per-game average of over 120 points in that stretch. Cleveland is also 1-0 against the Bulls this season, beating them by 14 points in Cleveland earlier this year. The Bulls are just 6-12 away from home this season. |
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01-15-24 | Rockets v. 76ers -7.5 | 115-124 | Win | 100 | 3 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It's usually wise to fade the Rockets on the road. They don't win, their scoring dips, and their defensive performance gets dramatically worse. None of that bodes well against a team they've already lost to that may also be getting an MVP back onto the court. Houston's defense struggles to keep opponents off the free throw line, which is where the 76ers excel. In the first meeting, Philadelphia ended the game 29-33 at the free throw line. The Rockets' defense does not match up well with the 76ers, and that's the team's strength. Expect a decisive Philadelphia victory. |
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01-14-24 | Kings v. Bucks -4.5 | 142-143 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Milwaukee Bucks took a while to get going early in the season, then settled in and had a seven game winning streak. The Bucks are back to their losing ways, as they have now lost four of their last six, and look to rebound against this Kings team. The Bucks lost two games to the Pacers, and dropped games with the Jazz and Rockets in their recent stretch. They showed their capability in their recent matchup with the Celtics, winning by 33 as they were led by Bobby Portis with 28 points and 12 rebounds off the bench. |
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01-13-24 | Lakers v. Jazz +1.5 | 125-132 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Jazz have been terrific lately, winning nine of their last 11 games prior to Friday’s clash against the Raptors. On the other side, the Lakers have dropped ten of their previous 14 contests. They are without Rui Hachimura (calf) and Gabe Vincent (knee). |
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01-13-24 | Rockets v. Celtics -15.5 | 113-145 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics have won three of their last five games and 18 straight home games. They are playing well offensively, scoring more than 123 points per game at home. They’ve also done well at the charity stripe, making over 84 percent of their free throws at home. They rebound the ball well and they’re aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring chances. They also did a great job of protecting the ball in recent games, turning it over less than 10 times per game in their last three games, do don’t expect them to give the Rockets a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Rockets have struggled defensively on the road this season and they are also playing on consecutive nights against a team that has been dominant at home, so expect the Celtics to keep their offense in check. The Rockets have lost two straight road games. They are playing well offensively, scoring more than 114 points per game in their last three games. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Celtics and won’t get a lot of extra-scoring chances against them. They’ve also been careless with the ball on the road, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Celtics, who average more than six steals per game. The Celtics have been very good defensively at home, holding opponents under 110 points per game, and will keep Houston’s offense in check. Go with Boston to cover the spread. |
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01-12-24 | Blazers v. Wolves -15 | 93-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units There are blowouts every night in the NBA. On Wednesday the Pelicans beat the Warrior by 36. On Tuesday, the Knicks beat these Blazers by 28. On Monday, the Clippers beat the Suns by 27. That is the last three days of NBA action, and every day had a landslide victory. This game is next in the progression. Gobert and Conley both sat out last game, neither has a serious injury and will likely play here after another day of rest. Edwards and Towns have played in almost every game this season, the Wolves will be at full strength. Portland on the other hand, will be playing on the tail end of a back-to-back after chasing around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on the road on Thursday. Portland has to travel in between, and fatigue will be an issue when the Blazers get to Minnesota. Minnesota is strong inside with Towns, Reid and Gobert, which will be bad news for the Blazers as Ayton is likely out again. The T-Wolves are clinging onto first in the West, and are coming off a loss, they will not take any chances in this game and will blow the tired Blazers out of the water. |
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01-12-24 | Pacers v. Hawks -5.5 | 126-108 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Haliburton's injury could be costly for Indiana. It managed to get past Washington in its first game without him, but that isn't saying much. The Pacers went 8-21 straight up (10-18-1 ATS) without Haliburton the last two seasons, which isn't surprising considering that he's the catalyst to their top-ranked offense. His absence is likely worth five or six points to the spread, as he's worth +8.2 points per 100 possessions to Indy's offense, schedule-adjusted, per Dunks and Threes. |
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01-11-24 | Blazers v. Thunder -12.5 | 77-139 | Win | 100 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The most recent time the Oklahoma City Thunder played the Portland Trail Blazers, the Thunder did something no other NBA team had done in at least 25 years with their hot shooting. In Oklahoma City's 134-91 win in Portland on Nov. 19, the Thunder shot 60.5 percent from the floor, 61.1 percent from beyond the 3-point line and 100 percent from the free-throw line to reach the rare single-game 60/60/100 mark. The Thunder's 77 percent true shooting percentage also set a franchise record. Tonight, the Thunder and Blazers will meet again, this time in Oklahoma City, with the Thunder on another shooting hot streak. The Thunder have shot 50 percent or better in each of their last nine games, their longest such streak in the 15 seasons since they moved to Oklahoma City. During the nine-game stretch, Thunder standout Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is shooting 60.2 percent from the floor. Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 31.4 points per game, which matches his career high, as do his 5.9 rebounds a game. He also has career-high averages in assists (6.4) and steals (2.4) per game. |
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01-07-24 | Spurs v. Cavs -10.5 | 115-117 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units San Antonio continues to flounder with only two wins in their last 29 games after a 3-2 start to the season. The Spurs have a ton of youth and one has to wonder if Popovich is the right fit as a head coach for this team at this point. He is the league’s all-time winningest coach but this isn’t a team with the veteran leadership that they had in previous seasons during a reloading period. Cleveland is minus a pair of starters in Mobley and Garland yet they have won four of six heading into this contest. The Cavaliers have had success against the Spurs, taking six of the last eight in the series, and San Antonio is only 3-14 on the road this year. Take Cleveland to pick up the home win here to make it three straight victories. |
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01-03-24 | Thunder v. Hawks | 138-141 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Thunder is playing the second game of a back-to-back situation and their third game in four nights here. Those sorts of situations haven’t seemed to bother Oklahoma City though as they have dropped the hammer on opposing teams in the second game of back-to-backs this season. Atlanta has been awful against the number this season, going 7-25 ATS on the year, including failing to cover in five straight contests and seven of their last eight. The Hawks have a rest advantage and they are at home here but their porous defense is too much to overlook. Look for Oklahoma City to take care of business again here as they deliver a road victory. |
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01-02-24 | Bulls v. 76ers -10.5 | 97-110 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chicago has beaten Philadelphia in the first two meetings this season but this one could turn out differently. The 76ers have the same two days of rest between games as opposed to playing the second game of a back-to-back situation Saturday night while the Bulls had a rest edge. Embiid has been bumped up to questionable for this contest, which would be a nice boost to the 76ers given how well he’s played this season. The Bulls are still minus Vucevic and LaVine from their starting five, while Craig takes a valuable second-unit player out of the mix. Playing on the road hurts the Bulls as they are 4-10 away from the United Center. Look for the 76ers to take advantage here and put this one in the win column. |
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12-30-23 | Heat -120 v. Jazz | 109-117 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With or without Jimmy Butler, the Miami Heat are clicking right now. Both teams have covered the spread in four straight, but the Heat did it while beating much tougher competition. Miami will beat Utah for a sixth straight contest, covering the spread in the process. Utah's greatest offensive strengths are rebounding and hitting free throws, two areas where Miami is excellent at stifling opponents. On the other end of the floor, Utah is terrible against three-pointers, whereas the Heat are the most efficient three-point shooting team. Take the Heat to beat the spread against the Jazz. |
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12-29-23 | Thunder v. Nuggets -135 | 119-93 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oklahoma City has used the youthful lineup to start the season 20-9 but has a tough stretch coming up. After facing Denver, the Thunder host Brooklyn and Boston before going on a four-game Eastern Conference road trip. The Nuggets are coming off a 142-105 win over Memphis on Thursday night but didn't have to travel to complete this back-to-back set. They did have to play without Aaron Gordon, who is out for an unspecified time after requiring 21 stitches on lacerations on his face and hands suffered from dog bites on Christmas. With Gordon unavailable, coach Michael Malone started Peyton Watson at power forward, and the hunch paid off. Watson had a season-high 20 points and took advantage of the Grizzlies sagging off of him and daring him to shoot open shots. |
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12-29-23 | Bucks v. Cavs +6.5 | 119-111 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cleveland delivered during a hard-fought battle Wednesday, taking down the Dallas Mavericks on the road 113-110 after needing to come-back from a 20-point deficit. Caris LeVert led the way for the Cavaliers with 29 points and seven assists off the bench. Jarrett Allen put up a 24-point, 23-rebound performance down low and Isaac Okoro added 22 points. The Cavaliers have been one of the few teams in the East to give Milwaukee problems in the regular season the past two years. They won three of the four games in the 2021-22 season and split the four-game series last season, winning the two most recent matchups. |
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12-29-23 | Nets v. Wizards +6.5 | 104-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units As the Nets embark on a four-game trip, coach Jacque Vaughn hopes his club can rediscover the defensive magic that has been missing in recent outings. Brooklyn has lost six of eight, allowing at least 121 points in each defeat. With defensive ace Ben Simmons slow to return from lower-back pain, Vaughn has called upon Dennis Smith Jr. to be a leader on that end of the court. Smith was promoted to the starting lineup Wednesday in a 144-122 home loss to the Milwaukee Bucks, chipping in with 14 points, seven rebounds and eight assists. In his previous five outings off the bench, his contribution was better represented in five straight non-negative plus/minus figures (a total of plus-35) than his 8.4 points per game. |
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12-28-23 | Jazz +8.5 v. Pelicans | 105-112 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New Orleans has struggled with three losses in their last four games coming into this contest with each of those coming at home. The Pelicans simply don’t have that closing instinct that they need in order to be considered a serious threat in the Western Conference. Now, Utah isn’t a great team by any stretch as they have a ton of youth to work with in their rotation after dealing away veterans last season at the trade deadline. However, the Jazz have strung together three straight wins on the road. While one can say they came over doormats in Detroit, Toronto and San Antonio, the fact remains that they were just 2-13 on the road before that. The Jazz have had the Pelicans’ number, winning five straight meetings, and they aren’t intimidated by the city the franchise once called home. Take Utah here as they steal one on the road. |
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12-27-23 | Knicks v. Thunder -150 | 120-129 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units I like the Thunder at home in this game against the Knicks on Wednesday. The Knicks have been decent but far from outstanding against the Western Conference thus far with a record of just 4-5. They shouldn't be hurt as much on the glass by the Knicks on Wednesday as the Knicks adjust to life without Robinson and his tenacious rebounding, particularly on the offensive glass. Despite playing decent defense this season, the Knicks are just 18th in opponent's shooting percentage which should mean another strong shooting night from the Thunder, ranked fifth in the NBA in shooting percentage. The Thunder have depth, shooting, and are 6-1 against the Eastern Conference this season. |
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12-27-23 | Suns v. Rockets +3 | 129-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Suns took a 128-114 home loss to the Dallas Mavericks on Christmas, Phoenix's ninth loss in 12 games following a seven-game winning streak that left the team a season-high five games over .500. An inability to cultivate any semblance of consistency continues to stall the Suns, whose injury concerns remain at the heart of their ongoing woes. Phoenix remains without Bradley Beal (ankle), who has logged only six games this season, and was also missing Jusuf Nurkic (personal) against the Mavericks. Beyond Beal, the injury issues haven't been overly debilitating but rather a constant nuisance, with the Suns laboring to construct a set rotation that can compete with the heavyweights in the Western Conference. The early-season struggles have yielded a fair share of think pieces contemplating what ails Phoenix. For their part, the Suns have yet to display any signs of panic despite everything that's gone awry. |
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12-27-23 | 76ers v. Magic -126 | 112-92 | Loss | -126 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units When reigning Most Valuable Player Joel Embiid is out of the lineup, the Philadelphia 76ers are quite vulnerable. And winless. The Sixers, who are 0-4 without Embiid this season, will again be without their leader when they visit the Orlando Magic today. Embiid missed Monday's Christmas Day matchup against the Miami Heat and will again be sidelined with a sprained right ankle. Embiid sustained the injury in the first quarter of Friday's 121-111 victory over the Toronto Raptors. The Sixers will also be without Nicolas Batum because of a strained right hamstring. With Embiid recuperating, Tyrese Maxey struggled in a 119-113 loss to the host Heat on Monday. |
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12-26-23 | Hornets v. Clippers -11.5 | 104-113 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Clippers shouldn’t have any problems beating the Hornets even if Kawhi Leonard remains on the sidelines. Charlotte has injury worries, too. The Hornets are without LaMelo Ball (ankle) and Mark Williams (back), while Terry Rozier (knee) and Brandon Miller (ankle) are both listed as questionable. Charlotte is a bad defensive unit, and LA will be scoring at will in this matchup. Hereof, I’m backing the Clippers to cover a double-digit spread in front of the home audience and make amends for an embarrassing loss to the Celtics. The Clippers are 8-2 ATS in their last ten contests against the Hornets. LA is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games overall and 13-5 ATS in its previous 18 tilts versus the Southeast Division teams. On the other side, Charlotte is 2-4 ATS in its last six contests overall and 1-7 ATS in its last eight outings on the road. |
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12-26-23 | Kings -8 v. Blazers | 113-130 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Kings have won four of their last six games and two of their last three road games. They are playing well offensively, scoring more than 111 points per game on the road. They do a good job of finding the open man and they’re very aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring chances. They also cut back on their turnovers in their last three games and won’t give the Blazers a lot of easy-scoring opportunities. The Trailblazers aren’t very good defensively and they play worse at home, giving up more than 115 points per game, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Kings in this game. The Trailblazers have lost two straight games and five of their last six home games. They have struggled offensively, scoring less than 110 points per game. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Kings and won’t get a lot of extra-scoring chances against them. They’ve also been careless with the ball, which will lead to easy-scoring opportunities for the Kings, who average more than seven steals per game. The Kings aren’t great defensively, but they play better on the road and won’t be tested by the cold-shooting Blazers, so go with Sacramento to cover the spread. |
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12-25-23 | Celtics -145 v. Lakers | 126-115 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics will come in fresh and ready to go likely with Porzingis at center. The addition of the Unicorn has completely changed Boston's interior defense this season and will cause problems for James and Davis in the lane. On the other end, the Lakers' defense has not looked as sharp lately and the Celtics' offense has been clicking, scoring nearly 140 points per game on this trip. Tatum and Brown are playing at an extremely high level and present matchup issues for everyone and certainly this Lakers' team without any ++ defensive forwards. The Lakers inconsistencies have been a big issue this year but I do expect them to be up for this game. The Celtics, however, have the length to bother them and the defensive backcourt to bother a team playing without a true point guard. |
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12-23-23 | Wolves +2.5 v. Kings | 110-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units Sacramento played on Friday against Phoenix. The Suns (14-13) are no joke and should push Sacramento. That will make for a slightly fatigued Kings team facing a Minnesota club who is one of the hottest teams in the NBA. Minnesota knocked off Los Angeles on Thursday and will be riding high, especially as winners of 10 of their last 12 games. The fact that Towns is out will hurt them, making this a close contest. |
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12-23-23 | Blazers +9 v. Warriors | 106-126 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Trail Blazers take on the Warriors for the third time this month, and Portland has covered the spread in its previous two dates with Golden State. The Warriors have been playing a ton of close games of late, so I’m backing the Blazers to grab their third consecutive ATS victory over Golden State. On paper, Golden State is a better team than Portland, but the Warriors will have to deal with fatigue in this game. The Warriors have gone 3-4 ATS over their previous seven games, and each of those seven contests have been decided by eight or fewer points. The Blazers will look to slow things down once more and force the Warriors into half-court basketball, so I’m expecting Portland to hang around down the stretch. |
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12-23-23 | Grizzlies v. Hawks | 125-119 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units The Hawks played well over the past week and they’ve won three of their last four games. They will try to keep the momentum going with a win over the Grizzlies, which will give them their fourth win in their last five games. Atlanta is averaging 123.1 points per game. They scored 134 points in their last game, making 51.6 percent of their field goals and 42.5 percent of their three-pointers. Trae Young led the Hawks with 30 points, four rebounds, and 14 assists. Bogdan Bogdanovic finished with 22 points, four rebounds, and five assists, while Dejounte Murray added 21 points, three rebounds, and five assists. |
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12-23-23 | Bucks -135 v. Knicks | 130-111 | Win | 100 | 4 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams have played solid basketball this season with wildly different splits. The Bucks have played 18 of their 28 games at home this season while the Knicks have played 17 of their first 27 games on the road. New York has been solid defensively this season, which helps make up for the fact that they are a middle of the road team on the offensive end of the floor. The problem for coach Tom Thibodeau’s team is that they don’t have the pieces to effectively lock up Antetokounmpo and Lillard. Milwaukee is a deep, talented team and we’ve seen them torch this Knicks team to the tune of 146 points in the most recent meeting. Look for the Bucks to take advantage of their firepower to earn a win here. |
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12-22-23 | Suns +3.5 v. Kings | 105-120 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Phoenix is arguably a better defensive team than Sacramento, but I’m not sure the Suns will be able to take full advantage of the Kings’ defensive flaws. The Suns have scored more than 112 points just twice in their last seven outings overall, and it looks like Phoenix rely on Kevin Durant and Devin Booker way too much. On the other side, the Kings might be vulnerable following that thrashing at the hands of the Celtics. It’s hard to trust Sacramento’s defense, so I’m backing the Suns to keep it close and hopefully upset the Kings. Phoenix should be able to slow the pace down and force Sacramento into half-court basketball which is crucial for the Suns in this matchup. |
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12-18-23 | Nets v. Jazz +4 | 108-125 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Even if the Jazz don't win, there's little chance that this game won't come down to the wire. Utah only has two home games that ended with a loss by at least five points and one of those was opening night. At the very least, the Jazz +4 is the best way to bet this game. Turnovers kill Utah's offense, but Brooklyn is the worst defense at forcing them. The Jazz's dominant offensive rebounding will also give them ample opportunity against a team allowing 122.8 points during their current road trip. Bet on a tight game, if not another Utah home win. |
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12-17-23 | Warriors -5.5 v. Blazers | 118-114 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are playing poorly and each has gone 1-2 ATS in the last three. The difference is that Golden State is 7-3-0 ATS in the last 10, and has been playing better overall. The Warriors have already beaten the Trail Blazers once this season and have taken eight of the last 10 meetings, going 6-3-1 ATS. The Trail Blazers are just a mess right now, the kind of team who can help Golden State right the ship. |
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12-17-23 | Magic v. Celtics -8.5 | 97-114 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Orlando is atop the Southeast Division but they have done most of their damage at home, going 11-2 at the Amway Center compared to a 5-6 road mark on the year. We saw the Magic struggle in their matchup against the Celtics Friday night in a game where Boston didn’t have Horford or Porzingis in the mix, yet they still won by 17. Boston is a perfect 13-0 at home this season with only two of those games decided by six points or less. The Celtics are a dangerous team on the offensive end and they get the job done making life tough for opposing squads defensively. Look for this game to go in favor of Boston as Tatum, Brown and company do their part once again. |
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12-16-23 | Knicks v. Clippers -5.5 | 122-144 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units Because New York plays on Friday, a line and total were not set for this game at the time this preview was written. That is irrelevant because Los Angeles should dominate this game. Not only will the Knicks be fatigued after playing on Friday. New York is not only struggling, but they have given up at least 133 in three of the last four games. The Clippers are rolling. They have won their last five games by at least eight points. Look for the Clippers to win this game by at least 11. |
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12-16-23 | Mavs -5 v. Blazers | 131-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The day off on Friday night will surely do this Mavericks team wonders, particularly superstar Doncic. Doncic has certainly been carrying the load for his team in Irving's absence. They have won four out of five games heading into Portland and Doncic is putting up MVP numbers. While the Mavs are susceptible to teams that can run an efficient offense, the Blazers are not that team. Additionally, the Blazers are not likely to slow down the Mavericks' high-octane offense. I expect another big night from Doncic and the superstar guard will find a teammate to play off of as he has throughout this current run. The Blazers give away too many possessions with turnovers and are last in the league in shooting. This one will be a big win for the Mavs. |
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12-15-23 | Magic v. Celtics -4 | 111-128 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Despite a dominant first quarter (30-19), the Celtics lost by 17 points to the Magic in their previous matchup this season. Orlando scored 94 points in the final three quarters, shooting 50.6 percent overall with a 60-40 scoring advantage in the paint and a +17 rebounding margin. The Magic put the C's on the free-throw line too much (37 FT attempts) and turned the ball over 18 times, but Boston struggled to find its stroke from three-point range (7-for-29). In Friday's rematch, I expect the Celtics to play a more complete game, knocking down more threes and holding their own inside. The Magic are unlikely to replicate their performance, as they rarely shoot the basketball that efficiently and won't dominate the Celtics again at the rim, as the C's boast the third-lowest opponent rim% in the league (57.2%). Porzingis, who only played 22 minutes in the first meeting, will do his duty as the team's rim protector, keeping Mo Wagner (27 points on 9-of-13 shooting) in check this time around. |
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12-15-23 | Pacers -8.5 v. Wizards | 123-137 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Indiana Pacers are solid on the road, winning four of their last six road bouts including a win against the Hawks and Heat. The Washington Wizards continue to struggle and only have one home win all season. They have lost 15 of their last 16 games. This is an ideal matchup for Indiana who leads the NBA in scoring. The Wizards are the worst defensive team in the NBA. They are last in points allowed and points conceded per 100 possessions. Indiana is sporting a dazzling 50.7% field goal percentage and opponents are shooting a stunning 50% against the Wizards. They have lost by at least 20 points in three consecutive games. |
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12-14-23 | Nets +9.5 v. Nuggets | 101-124 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |