Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-30-14 | Florida State -3.5 v. Louisville | 42-31 | Win | 100 | 1 h 29 m | Show | |
[b]FSU -3 -120 buy hook 4* PLAY[/b] This line has dropped more than 4 points since opening and can be found at -3.5 in majority of books.. It's too much value now on the side of Florida State who is 1-6 ATS on the year. Perception is that they are not as good as last year yet they still have the best QB in the land behind 4 returning offensive linemen and they have put up 30+ points in all 6 of his starts this year, some against some top defenses. Coming off a bye where they won a close won against Notre Dame should help as Winston just lit it up at the end of that game. I think the offense gets better here and the defense as well. Remember off a bye last year they went to Clemson and won 51-14. Here comes Louisville with the #1 defense by far. However, they have only played one team ranked inside the top 60 in yards per play and that was Miami in the first week of the season. Louisville has not faced a top 50 passing attack from a QB rating perspective since Miami and MIami has come a long way since their loss to Louisville. Winston and Florida State is just a different monster that I don't think Louisville can win. For one their offensive line has been terrible ranked 122nd in pass protection and 113th in yards per carry. You better put up 30 points against the Seminoles if you are going to have any shot at winning. The strength of Louisville has been the passing game, but that falls right into the strength of Florida State's defense with two 1st round draft picks at corner in PJ Williams and Ronald Darby who have yet to play up to their potential. This game is all about where people think Florida State is.. they have had over a week to hear how they are not as good and how they were lucky to beat Notre Dame. I see this game being close late and that's just a situation I don't see that Louisville is experienced enough to win. Florida State has needed some heroics in 4 of their last 8 games late in the game either 4th quarter or OT so they are very much used to it. Jameis Winston has a 194.57 QB rating in the 4th quarter. |
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10-25-14 | Arizona v. Washington State +125 | 59-37 | Loss | -100 | 42 h 27 m | Show | |
Washington State +125 5.5* NCAAF POD (6pm ET) Two evenly matched teams and Arizona is the favorite and the ranked team, but on the road. Both of these teams have had similar results against similar opponents with big wins on the road. Arizona won against Oregon and Washington State won against Utah. Washington State should not have any problems moving the ball against Arizona especially at home. Arizona is 102nd in opposing QB rating and they don’t have a defensive line that can get a pass rush against Washington State’s quick passing offense. Arizona is also 109th in yards per pass attempt which also suggests some tackling issues. Connor Halladay at home is just a dominant QB with a 171 QB rating 17 TD to just 2 INT with 9.1 yards per attempt and 2.07 sack % which are all top 20 in the nation for home passing offenses. Arizona had gotten big road wins because of their pass rush, but they faced some teams with vulnerabilities in protecting their QB. Oregon 117th and Texas San Antonio 109th. Arizona’s secondary is no good and they should be lit up in this one. It’s also hard to ignore the fact that Arizona has major issues in the red zone both on offense and defense and in the opponent they face on Saturday. They are scoring just 46% TD’s in the RZ and allowing nearly 71%. Meanwhile Washington State is flipped at 66% (80% at home) and 50% allowed. Washington State is a desperate team right now they need a win if they want to get back into the bowl discussion and they are off a bye week with 1 extra day to prepare for this home game. |
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10-25-14 | Georgia Tech +3 v. Pittsburgh | 56-28 | Win | 100 | 40 h 53 m | Show | |
Georgia Tech +3 4.4* Play (3:30pm ET) Pitt is off a big win that looks less impressive seeing how bad Virginia Tech has looked over the past few weeks. Pitt is one of the youngest teams and they will be a bit high on themselves following a win and that won’t help when they have to face Georgia Tech’s triple option rushing game. Nobody can stop the triple option it seems and while Pitt’s run defense has been very good this year they have only faced 1 team ranked in the top 50 in rushing offense while Georgia Tech is top 10 in yards per game and yards per carry and it’s a unique unit they haven’t really been used to facing. Georgia Tech put up 297 yards on them last year and this unit is less experienced. Meanwhile Pitt is doing a great job of running the ball also, and Georgia Tech has not been able to stop any running teams. Georgia Tech has faced 4 teams in the top 40 in yards per carry as well as North Carolina’s running QB. Georgia Tech will prove to be just too much as Justin Thomas can throw the ball too and they are converting 59% on third down and 71% in the red zone which will be the difference since Pitt has allowed 73.33% TD’s in the red zone this year. |
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10-25-14 | Michigan +17.5 v. Michigan State | 11-35 | Loss | -115 | 40 h 51 m | Show | |
Michigan +17 2.2* Play (3:30pm ET) Rivalry game here and Michigan State has Ohio State next. These players will fight for their coach and they have an extra week of preparation. Michigan’s defense is playing out of their minds when you consider how bad the offense has been. They are 11th in yards per play allowed and 6th in yards per carry and 28th in sack %. This is the best defense Michigan State has faced considering they haven’t faced a past rush unit in the top 50 before, and they have only faced 1 top 50 run defense. Both games they struggled to run the ball they were held to 27 points as they fell apart late against Oregon and nearly lost against Nebraska. Michigan has been bad and they may lose this by 50, but there is too much value in this rivalry game and I bet the Wolverines come out with a little passion and cover the spread because their defense has been solid all year. |
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10-25-14 | West Virginia v. Oklahoma State -115 | 34-10 | Loss | -115 | 40 h 50 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State -1 4.4* PLAY (3:30pm ET) West Virginia played their game of the year beating Baylor by 14 as a +8.5 home dog while Oklahoma State lost big to TCU a team who choked against Baylor the week before. How in the hell is Oklahoma State favored then? Well Oklahoma State has won 6 of their last 7 home coming games, and they are 22-2 in their last 24 home games. Despite how well West Virginia’s defense played a week ago they still ranked 105th in sack %, 91st in yards per carry allowed and 75th in yards per play. This is a different team on the road allowing 516 yards per game. Oklahoma State was the ranked team last year playing on the road against West Virginia when the Mountaineers pulled off the upset. Oklahoma State is being underestimated here based off of one blowout loss against TCU on the road. Oklahoma State nearly beat Florida State to open the season at home 37-31 which is impressive since they are one of the youngest team in the nation playing the defending champions. Oklahoma State can do a lot of things well and that will typically keep you in ball games with a chance to win. Oklahoma State’s run defense is the key. In their wins they have held opponents to 3.11 ypc and 5.17 in losses. Given the fact that West Virginia is only averaging 3.46 on the road and 5 of the 6 run defenses they have faced have kept them under their own ypc allowed gives me confidence that Oklahoma State will be able to do the same and keep this game in control. West Virginia may start to press and they are -11 in turnover margin on the year where Oklahoma State has notoriously held a big advantage in forced turnovers. |
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10-25-14 | Texas +10 v. Kansas State | 0-23 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 19 m | Show | |
Texas +10 4.4* Play (12pm ET) We were on Kansas State’s big win over Oklahoma last week, but now they are in an interesting game which is very dangerous. First of all throw out Texas lack of defense last week against Iowa State. It can all be fixed and it was expected following their game against Oklahoma which is also their biggest rivalry. They will turn it around this week and Texas is the most complete defense that Kansas State has faced all year which is a concern. Kansas State’s offense has looked great behind Jake Waters, but they haven’t faced a pass rush like this before. Texas is in the top 10 in sack %, opponent QB rating and passing yards per attempt. Their run defense has struggled a bit but is still top 45 in the nation and Kansas State’s ground game is not what it’s been in the past. Texas has shown they can dominate in run defense especially early in games and I think Kansas State will rely on their running game so much that it will shorten the game and give Texas a chance. Texas has a chance because the offense has dramatically improved behind Tyrone Swopes who is off back to back solid performances against better passing defenses than Kansas State. Kansas State could win the Big 12 but they won’t because of their pass defense. Part of the problem is they are 124th in sack % and 84th in opponent QB rating. For what it’s worth Kansas State only beat Iowa State by 4 while Texas only won by 3. I think Texas is not as far away as we once thought. Both teams also played Oklahoma similarly. |
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10-24-14 | Troy +15 v. South Alabama | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
Troy +15 -108 3.5* Friday Night Lights I'll Take Troy here as they are not as bad as their 53-14 loss agaisnt App State, but on paper if you look real quick the public will hammer South Alabama because of this. Their 53-14 loss at home was worse because South Alabama won 47-21 on the road against App State, but App State was able to move the ball just fine on South Alabama. The difference in both of those games was turnovers and I'll use that to our advantage, becasue I don't think South Alabama is as good as what the line is saying. First of all this is an instate rivalry and South Alabama has 2 games coming up next against Arkansas State and La Lafayette which will determine their fate in the Sun Belt Conference. I see them peaking ahead given the fact that the players will simply over look this team. Troy's run defense has been hit or miss, but it's worth noting they have come up with some decent performances.. For instance they held Duke a very good running team under their season average. It's worth noting Duke has been a one dimensional team which leaves me to believe that Troy can play decent defense against a team that can't throw the ball. South Alabama can not throw the ball and their QB is only completing 51.4% of his passes compared with Troy's QB Brandon Silvers completing 68.7%. South Alabama will rely on their running game, but they just lost thier star RB Jay Jones toa season ending injury and their rushing offense has only out rushed what their opponent was giving up once this season and that was to Georgia State who is worse in run defense then Troy and they still only beat them by 3 points. At the end of the day this could be another lousy team going on the road only to get beat, but they are playing for a good head coach who will be retiring against an in state rival who is looking ahead to more important games. I'll take the greater than 2 TD spread. |
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10-23-14 | Miami (Fla) v. Virginia Tech +3 | Top | 30-6 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
Virginia Tech +3 4.4* NCAAF POD I think the Hokies will cover and win this game outright. The stock on the Hokies has plummeted, but they are still in the mix and could have won last week's game at Pittsburgh on the road without their top 3 running backs. Now they are likely to have Marshawn Williams back against and easier defense to move the ball against and they get to face them at home. Miami has already given up 300+ yards on the ground to two opponents this year which should allow Virginia Tech to put some points on the board. Virginia Tech's defense is the main reason why I'll take the Hokies. Bud Foster's group is still at top 15 unit and can stop the pass and run. Virginia Tech will look to stop the run first to create third and longs. I think the Hurricanes will be out coached in this game by far. Virginia Tech is actually better than their numbers say against the run when you throw in how hard Georgia Tech's triple option is to stop. The last time Miami faced a defense this good they lost 13-31 to Louisville. Miami QB Brad Kaaya has not played well on the road with 2 interceptions in each game all 3 losses. Virginia Tech will get after him with the 3rd ranked pass rush while Miami is a suspect 67th in protecting the QB. What makes matters worse is they are actually converting on just 24.6% of their third downs and that's where Virginia Tech is set up well to win this game. Miami is converting just 21% of third downs on the road and 24% overall compared with Virginia Tech's 44.5% and 50.7% at home and 26% on defense. Miami is going to have issues converting there is no doubt about it while Virginia Tech should have more success. Almost every offense that Miami's defense faced converted at a higher % on third down with exception of Duke where Miami was at home. Even against Georgia Tech who was converting 59% on the season. The same is true for the offense they converted at just 26% against their last two opponents who were allowing 50% to their opponents. Now going against arguably the best defense they have faced. The same issues are true in the red zone as they have converted just 53% TD's and have allowed 83% on the road. Virginia Tech also struggles in the red zone but their defense has allowed 43%. The big play... Bud Foster will have things solved and the defense should not give up any big plays here tonight at home with the blitzes and the front 7 getting to the QB just a bit faster at home. Pitt beat this team with their QB taking off and that's not something Miami's QB can do at all. |
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10-18-14 | Nebraska v. Northwestern +7 | 38-17 | Loss | -105 | 43 h 43 m | Show | |
Northwestern +7 2.2* play Northwestern has turned their season around and could have won on the road last week if it weren't for a 100 yard kickoff return they allowed late in the 4th quarter after a brilliant 97 yard TD drive by Trevor Siemann. Minnesota only manged 274 yards as Northwestern's defense continues to play well. Northwestern can stop the run and I'm not surprised that Minnesota won last week at home coming off a bye when Northwestern was off two huge Big Ten wins. I think Northwestern has a good chance to bounce back against Nebraska who relies on the run too much. Nebraska has been running it 64% of the time with good reason they have the best RB int he country and they are averaging 6.22 ypc, but a closer look and they have only faced 1 top 50 run defense and that was Michigan State who they averaged 1.27 ypc against. Tommy Armstrong just can't be the difference maker as he is completing just 51.9% of his passes and has a tendency to turn the ball over which is a big deal considering Northwestern has allowed 6 TD and has 9 interceptions and are ranked 23rd in opposing QB rating to go with their top 50 run defense. These two traditionally play in close games as Northwestern has lost some heart breakers the last few years including last year by a hail mary. The last 3 games have been decided by 7 points combined and I see no reason why this one won't come down to 1 possession. |
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10-18-14 | Missouri +5.5 v. Florida | 42-13 | Win | 100 | 42 h 23 m | Show | |
Missouri +6 4* play -120 Missouri is certainly not as bad as it showed last week in their 34-0 loss to Georgia as MIssouri turned the ball over 5 times. They had only turned the ball over 4 times before that game. I Look for them to bounce back here as they are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 following an ATS loss and 10-2 ATS following a SU loss. Gary Pinkel is a much better coach than Will Muschamp who is 4-11 ATS following a SU loss. I don't think his team plays for him and after a devastating loss to LSU last week we will surely find out if he's on his way out. What got lost in Missouri's loss to Georgia last week was their defense that is just as good as Florida's. They were on the field for 42 minutes and still held Georgia in check. Florida's offense is just terrible led by Jeff Driskel who has a 102 QB Rating. I still trust Matty Mauk more who has more than twice the number of TD's and is completing more than 1 yards more per attempts. Missouri is just a bit better in red zone offense and defense and that will be the difference in my opinion. |
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10-18-14 | San Jose State -1.5 v. Wyoming | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 39 h 26 m | Show | |
San Jose -1.5 4.4* Mountain West Game of the Month San Jose State comes into the game off their second bye week of the young season. That's a big advantage especailly this week with Wyoming playing last Saturday night or early Sunday in Hawaii. Having to fly all the way back and play a team off a bye is a major disadvantage for a team that is struggling. Wyoming has been decent passing the ball ranked in the top 75 in QB Rating and pass completion %, but have struggled to run the ball and now they face San Jose State who is 2nd in opponent completion % and 1st in opponent QB rating. San Jose has allowed only 1 passing TD and held Auburn on the road to 56% completion % and were only -174 yards and held the ball for 35 minutes of the game. San Jose's offense will get a chance to get both the running and passing game going when you consider Wyoming's defense is 101st in yards/play allowed and ranked 104th vs. the run and 110th vs. the pass. San Jose has advantages on third down allowing 35% conversions compared with Wyoming 49%. Wyoming has a couple of wins at home against Air Force and Florida Atlantic, but San Jose is just a bit better and has more speed than both of those teams. |
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10-18-14 | Georgia v. Arkansas +3.5 | Top | 45-32 | Loss | -100 | 39 h 26 m | Show |
Arkansas +4 5.5* NCAAF POD Arkansas is a desperate team here looking for a win in the SEC for the first time in 16 games. They keep inching closer and closer and really out played Alabama at home last week, but an extra point miss kept them from winning this game or forcing OT. Georgia meanwhile went on the road and flat out dominated Missouri 34-0, but they were not as good as that score indicates while Missouri turned the ball over 5 times. MIssouri's defense was on the field for 42 minutes, yet they still held Georgia under 400 yards and Georgia never had an offensive play over 18 yards. Meanwhile Arkansas under rated defense just got done holding Alabama to 227 yards. Georgia's defense has been the story along with the running game, but when you look at it Georgia's defense has faced all of the weak teams in the SEC when it comes to offense. They've faced only 1 team all year ranked in the top 50 in yards per play offense and they lost on the road to them 38-35 to South Carolina, a team that is not as good as Arkansas. The other teams ranked 89th, 113th, 116th, 98th, and 97th in yards per play offense so I'm thinking this Georgia defense is not as good as they looked last week they almost certainly can not expect Arkansas to turnt he ball over 5 times. Arkansas arguably is the first balanced offense that Georgia has faced all year. Yes, Arkansas will run the ball 62% of the time and try to shorten the game, but Brandon Allen is healthy and has 10 TD and just 2 interceptions and they utilize their TE's who very hard to guard very well. IF Georgia's schedule was based off last year's team then we'd be telling a different story, but all three big games - Clemson, MIssouri, and South Carolina look like completely different teams. The SEC West is undefeated against the SEC East. Arkansas defense that has struggled has faced 5 top 60 offenses and 4 in the top 30, 3 int he top 15. Now Georgia is a one dimensional offense and Arkansas just got done shutting down Alabama's running game. Todd Gurley is looking like he'll play and that has pushed this line up to +4 in some places and I couldn't help but jump on it as I think Arkansas is poised to win this game outright. Georgia isn't as good and Arkansas continues to be under rated. Look for the running game to keep it going while they convert third downs and keep the chains moving while Korliss Marshall makes plays in special teams to set up their first win in their last 16 tries in the SEC. |
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10-18-14 | Syracuse v. Wake Forest +6 | 30-7 | Loss | -106 | 36 h 46 m | Show | |
Wake Forest +6 3.3* early bird play Syracuse has not had a true road game in over a month and Wake Forest is off a bye. Syracuse is now without their QB Terrel Hunt and will start a QB with even less experience than Wake Forest's starter. Wake Forest's defense is enough to completely overwhelm the Syracuse offense that has struggled. They held Syracuse on the road to 13 points last year, but their offense put up a goose egg. Things could be different this year despite Syracuse's defense being very good again, because of the bye and the fact that Syracuse pass defense has allowed 76% completion over their last 3 games. Look for Wake to pull out all the stops to get a win here. Both teams have had red zone issues scoring TD's at just 39% of their attempts while the defenses have been solid, but Wake's red zone defense has been better at 43% to Syracuse 54%. Wake allowed Louisville and Florida State to go 3-7 in the red zone for TD% and they did that on the road. Syracuse was home in both of those games and allowed the two to go 7-9. There is just too much value with the home dog here despite their struggling offense I think JOhn Wolford will be able to put up some points involving WR EJ Scott and TE Sam Serigne as Syracuse has allowed 10 passing TD's over the last 4 games. I also expect Wake to have the advantage on special teams as they are 8-8 on field goals Syracuse is 10-14. Their punt coverage is also better allowing 7.13 yards per return while Syracuse has given up a TD already and 13.4 yards. Wake also has a TD return this year out of their punt unit while Syracuse does not. |
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10-16-14 | Utah v. Oregon State +3 | Top | 29-23 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
Oregon State +3 4.4* NCAAF POD I have been all over this Utah team for years and I know them and their coaching staff very well. So far this season I have predicted in my analysis Utah +405 ML at UCLA 2 weeks ago and I also predicted Washington State +425 at Utah for the win. Utah is now ranked inside the top 25 and I won't play them as a road favorite. As good as they are on defense they are a flawed team. How many #1 pass rush teams who are #1 in sack % and #1 in sacks are giving up 43% conversions on third down? Utah's front 7 is built on stopping the run and forcing teams into third and long and they've done a good job this year. They have only faced one team ranked inside the top 87 in pass protection and that was Washington State who beat them in their own building. Oregon State is just a bit more balanced than Washington State, but they have a veteran QB built on pass first mentality with very capable running backs averaging over 5 yards per carry. Utah's defense is going to be tired by the end of this game and I wouldn't be surprised to see Oregon State take this game outright. Their offensive line is still missing their best player, but this team has been tested facing 3 teams inside the top 60 in pass rush. USC was ranked 94th but we all know they are better than that. Oregon State lost by 25 at USC, but that was on the road and without their top WR target who will be back today for QB Sean Mannion. Oregon State's defense has just as many strengths as Utah and Utah's offense is 95th in yards per play on offense. They are not announcing their starting QB, but Oregon State has a defense that can plan for both led by 3 senior linebackers in the middle. |
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10-14-14 | UL-Lafayette +3 v. Texas State | Top | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 2 h 27 m | Show |
UL-Lafayette +3 4.4* NCAAF POD I'll take the Rajin Cajuns here as our POD catching 3 points on the road. First of all I think this team is better prepared for this game they got essentially a bye after their game against Boise STate as they had to play GA STate as a 17 point favorite at home and nearly lost, but again this is the same team that at home against LA Tech was a 16 point favorite and lose by 28. Public is down on them and so is Vegas yet they still have 18 returning starters compared with Texas State's 12 (4 on defense) and Texas State lost 24-48 and were outgained by nearly 400 yards in that game. I will take the dog in that scenario especially when you look at the fact that Lafayette has played Boise and Ole MIss while Texas State has the weakest strength of schedule in the country. Texas State has played nobody in the top 90 in rushing offense or defense so their numbers look pretty good on offense with a 5.60 ypc and a QB rating over 150, but a lot of the rushing yardage came against Idaho who is ranked 124th vs. the run. Texas State has only faced 2 teams who have a top 50 ranked rushing or passing offense (Illinois and Navy) and lost to both. At lease UL Lafayette can run the ball and even did so against Ole Miss. Terrance Broadway has had a terrible start, but he tossed 4 TD 0 INT in this match up last year and should have plenty of confidence coming into this game. At the end of the day I just think the wrong team is favored based on public perception. |
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10-11-14 | USC -2.5 v. Arizona | Top | 28-26 | Loss | -115 | 47 h 37 m | Show |
USC -2.5 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD Arizona is a top 15 team nationally and undefeated off a big win at Oregon as a 3+ TD favorite. Now they go back home and they are under dogs against a team with 2 losses? Well that's because USC is just a better team and I expect them to win and cover in this game. Arizona beat Oregon last year as a +20.5 favorite and proceeded to lose the next week 21-58. Oregon is not the top tier team we thought they were and haven't been the same since Chip Kelly went to the NFL. First of all Arizona off this big win is due for a hang over or a let down whatever you want to call it. Their offense is led by two freshmen and in QB Anu Solomon and RB Nick Wilson who probably think college football and winning is easy. I think they are in for a rude awakening against a pissed off USC team that played well but lost on a hail mary at home. When you look at Arizona's results and schedule they haven't faced a top defense especially in pass defense. USC is 32nd in opponent QB rating, but Arizona has faced 86th, 109th, 55th, 100th, and 93rd so I'm not surprised Solomon has enjoyed so much success. USC is also tough against the run despite their rank. Boston College ran all over them and I'm going to throw that game out when you consider they just got done holding their last two opponents well under their season averages including Arizona State who is still ranked 13th in ypc despite rushing for under 2 yards per carry vs. USC's defense. Arizona will have a tough time with Cody Kessler who is completing 69.5% of his pass without any interceptions. He also has Javorious Allen who is averaging over 5 yards per carry and rushed for over 150 vs. a pretty good Stanford defense. Arizona's pass defense is not good allowing a 151 QB rating and they have given up a higher QB rating to all 4 of their 5 opponents. Oregon had a 170 QB rating but on the season average over 190. Overall I just think USC is too good in their pass defense and they seemed to fix the issues in their run defense and we get them at a true bargain. Before last week this spread probably would have been 5.5 or 6 point favorites. USC has allowed just 25% conversions on third down and 46% TD's in the red zone and are +7 in turnover margin with 0 turnovers in their last 4 games. Arizona is just not a good red zone team right now 52% TD percentage on offense and 67% on defense. |
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10-11-14 | Ole Miss v. Texas A&M -2 | 35-20 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 10 m | Show | |
TX A&M -2 4.4* SEC GOW Ole Miss just got done with arguably their biggest win in program history. Shit.. we even saw their QB Bo Wallace being carried off the field and the goal posts being ripped down. Talk about going back to old times. I don't see this team re-grouping against an A&M team that has more offense than this Ole Miss defense has seen all year and they have to face it on the road. Even the Ole Miss run defense showed holes against Alabama allowing nearly double their season ypc allowed. Bo Wallace simply can't carry this team on the road in my opinion. Maybe he can do it against Vanderbilt on the road right now but not against A&M where he will be required to score in the 30's. I just don't like how they match up here.. For one thing A&M's stock is down and they are looking for redemption right now and what better way then to face a team that just beat Bama. A&M is humbled right now and they have a good coach and are 6-2 ATS following a SU loss so I like them here especially when you look at what goes on up front. A&M is better at pressuring the QB and protecting the QB ranking top 20 in both. Ole Miss front is nasty, but on the road that should be a different story against a QB that can run and throw and if it weren't for 9 drops by his receivers last week we could be seeing A&M undefeated and listed as a 6 point favorite. Ole MIss is ranked 82nd in sack % while Kenny Hill has been sacked |
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10-11-14 | Penn State +1 v. Michigan | 13-18 | Loss | -106 | 43 h 54 m | Show | |
Penn St +1 3.3* Big10 GOW On paper this almost looks to obvious with how poor Michigan looks right now. Listen Brady Hoke is on his way out and he knows it. I don't see him fighting for his job nor do I see the players fighting for him. Michigan is getting some money here for their play at home under the lights, but I don't see it. Penn State has the far superior coach in James Franklin and he has an extra week to prepare coming off a loss. Penn State's loss was an ugly one at the time vs. Northwestern by double digits, but since Northwestern has defeated Wisconsin as well. There is no doubt Christina Hackenberg has regressed, but playing Michigan's shaky pass defense should help. Once again it all starts up front and Michigan can't get to the QB while they also can't protect their QB. Penn State is #1 in run defense and they're pretty solid vs. the pass too ranking 35th in sack %. James Franklin as a head coach is a pretty damn good one off byes. With Vanderbilt the last 3 years he was 5-2 SU & ATS, 5-0 ATS the last two years including 3x as an under dog. His two losses were against Alabama on the road and his first bowl game against Cincinnati in his first year as a coach. |
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10-11-14 | Auburn v. Mississippi State +3 | 23-38 | Win | 100 | 39 h 17 m | Show | |
Miss St +3 2.2* play MIss State won a huge game against A&M last week, but this game is bigger. Auburn played Kansas State on the road and should have lost in my opinion and I think Miss State is just a better version of that. You could argue that Miss State rushing offense and defense has been better this year, but on paper it's about the same so since both teams rely on this and the fact that MIss State's QB Dak Prescott has a QB rating 30 points higher than Nick Marshall I feel comfortable with the home dog. Both teams have the same amount of players returning and Miss State nearly beat Auburn on the road. First of all they basically out played them in their own building with Prescott and the running game rushing for 1.7ypc more than Auburn. Prescott rushed for 133 while Marshall just 22 on 11 carries. Miss State is home now and Auburn is just a bit over hyped in my opinion. |
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10-11-14 | North Carolina +17 v. Notre Dame | 43-50 | Win | 100 | 39 h 16 m | Show | |
UNC +17 3.3* PLAY / UNC +575 0.5* BONUS I'm not at all impressed with Notre Dame yet they are ranked in the top 10 after defeating a Stanford team that to be honest is just not that good as we all know by now. Notre Dame has looked ugly in their last 2 games and now they face a desperate UNC team that was supposed to be ranked before the season started. I think this is a dangerous game, because this is arguably the best offense that Notre Dame has faced and they are clearly looking ahead to their showdown against Florida State. UNC has QB Marquise Williams who almost ran for over 100 yards against a very good Virginia Tech defense and he's been passing well to his WR Davis and converting 76% of his red zone opportunities into TD's. He had 4 TD passes against Clemson and put up 35 points against one of the best front 7's in the nation. I believe Notre Dame's defense which has been touted as a top 10 unit is over rated based on the offenses they have faced. Syracuse ranked 41st in yards per play is the top offense they have faced to date and they are ranked 67th in strength of schedule. I think UNC will stay in this game and have the ball late with a chance to win or take the game to OT. |
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10-11-14 | TCU +8 v. Baylor | 58-61 | Win | 100 | 39 h 11 m | Show | |
TCU +8 3.3* BIG12 GOW[/b] TCU is off a big win against Oklahoma, but they have a veteran group with a very good coach that expected to beat Oklahoma. Now they face a Baylor team that I think is over rated. First of all Baylor had to replace 3 guys on the offensive line form last year and are only returning 12 starters overall. TCU has much more coming back and they proved last year they can beat Baylor. TCU had 3 turnovers and still lost by just 3 points at home as a 2 TD under dog. Baylor is still putting up points, but this year's version is far less explosive. Texas shared the recipe holding Petty to 7-22 for 111 yards and he was only 19-38 last year. TCU's defense will keep them in this game they are top 5 in sack % and opp QB rating and ranked in top 10 in run defense. Ironically their offense is ranked ahead of Baylor ranking 22nd in yards per play. Baylor's defense has also been on par looking great, but I believe they are a notch below TCU from last year's stats and this year's stats. When you look at the offenses they have played too it is no surprise as they have faced 113th, 106th, FCS foe, and Buffalo (38th) in yards per play offense. TCU has proven this year against top offensive talent that their defense is real holding Trevor Knight to 14/35 1TD and 2 INT last week. This is a huge game for both teams for recruiting and I expect a close game throughout with TCU having a chance to win or hold onto the win in the end. |
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10-11-14 | Indiana v. Iowa -3 | 29-45 | Win | 100 | 35 h 25 m | Show | |
Iowa -3 3.3* play[/b] This is a revenge game for Iowa who held Indiana to 2.2 ypc on the road last year. Iowa is also off a bye and will play an Indiana team that has looked as bad as they have looked good this year. They won at MIssouri, but lost at a Bowling Green team that is ranked at the bottom of the nation in offense and defense. They are not getting the consistent play from their QB Nate Sudfield who has just a 125 QB rating and relying on their star RB Tevin Coleman too much. Iowa sports a solid rushing defense that can game plan and dominate a game with 2 weeks to prepare for a one dimensional attack and I think that's exactly what they will do. Iowa has already faced a pair of top 50 rushing teams on the road and won and coincidently neither of those teams had a passing game so it should be more of the same on Saturday. I also expect Iowa to get their running game going and to find some balance in the passing game against Indiana's defense that is very young and talented, but playing very inconsistent. At the end of the day we are backing a team off a bye, at home, vs inconsistent team with holes on both sides of the ball and the extra preparation time should benefit and allow them to win this game by a TD. |
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10-11-14 | Middle Tennessee State +24.5 v. Marshall | 24-49 | Loss | -106 | 35 h 24 m | Show | |
MTSU +24.5 2.2* PLAY Marshall is getting a lot of hype for the second year in a row, but they have the 99th ranked strength of schedule and I don't see any reason for them to be this big of favorites when you consider MTU has been extremely competitive and beat Marshall at home last year as a double digit dog. Both of their losses on the road came by less than this margin and agaisnt two very good teams in Memphis and Minnesota. MTSU runs the ball first 58% the time and Austin Grammer leads the conference completing 71% of his throws so the clock should be moving a lot. MTU has the best offense that Marshall has faced so far this year and I expect it to be a battle for 3 quarters at least before Marshall takes the game over and wins by 10 in the 4th. |
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10-10-14 | Washington State +17 v. Stanford | Top | 17-34 | Push | 0 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
WASHINGTON ST +17 4.4* NCAAF POD |
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10-09-14 | BYU v. Central Florida UNDER 45 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 16 m | Show |
BYU/UCF U45 4.4* NCAAF POD I don't see any value here on the home team despite covering on them last week as one of my POD's against Houston. Their offense looked awful and they are still ranked 119th in yards per play on the season. BYU has a solid defense ranked 36th in yards per play and they will rely heavily on their defense to carry them here since they are now without their star QB. If anything there is a ton of value on BYU here after they lost as a -21 favorite and lost their star QB Taysome Hill.. I can't back a team though starting a new QB on the road on short rest against a UCF defense that will also be pretty geared up at home and is very talented. The under is 5-0 in BYU's last 5 Thursday games, but I also like that both teams are top 40 in rushing play %. A lot of running and a lot of clock moving with both teams relying on their solid defense which gets better when opponents get into the red zone. Both teams have been very good on defense in the red zone with UCF allowing just 28% TD's in the red zone compared with BYU at 52%. I think this sets up nicely for the under as we see a totally different BYU offense. |
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10-04-14 | Utah +13.5 v. UCLA | Top | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 46 h 5 m | Show |
UTAH +13.5 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD + UTAH +405 1* ML UCLA got a huge win on national television to stay undefeated, but they actually looked like everyone thought they would all seasonw inning 62-27 and suddenly they are ranked #8 in the country. I'm still not buying this team at all. I was all over Arizona State last week because I thought they had more talent on defense and I was completely wrong this team is 113th in yards / play allowed and 70th in sack %. UCLA struggled in all 3 of their other games because Memphis, Virginia, and Texas are all in the top 25 in sack %. Well that plays right into Utah's hands as they are ranked 5th in sacks and 18th in sack %. Better yet they get to the QB with their front 4 and don't need to blitz as the defensive line has 15 of the 18 sacks. What I like about Utah is the fact that they lost at home as a double digit favorite while UCLA exploded on national TV so no doubt we have value on this line. Washington State went into Utah as 13 point favorite and won which I predicted and cashed on at +425. I'm predicting the same thing here. The match up against Wash State was just a bad bad match up for Utah whose defense is built to stop the run and get a pass rush, but Wash State relies on quick passes so a pass rush is almost nearly impossible. UCLA is ranked 109th in protecting the QB and it's been their kryptonite all year long. I don't expect that to change in one week after one game. UTah's Nate Orchad has proven he's a dominant pass rusher and should be giving Brent Hundley plenty of pressure. Utah gave UCLA all they could handle at home last year, but Tyler Wilson turned the ball over 6 times. It it wasn't for that this team would have beaten UCLA and Stanford at home. One year later this team is deeper and better and Tyler Wilson has yet to throw an interception and the team is +5 in turnover margin. Dres Anderson is a real threat at WR and Utah has balance with Devontae Booker carrying the ball. Special teams has also been great with Kaelin Clay the fastest player on the field already taking back 4 TD's in punt and kick off returns and should be a huge factor on Saturday night, but Utah's solid front 7 on defense against UCLA's struggling offensive line should be the story here and the reason why we cash our ticket. |
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10-04-14 | Pittsburgh +6 v. Virginia | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 43 h 17 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh +5 3.3* ACC GOW There has to be value in this line after Pitt lost as a -21 point favorite to Akron a week ago. This team was just beat up after the game against Iowa and I see them bouncing back this week. Virginia is 5-0 ATS on the year and that just can't hold up especially since Pitt is 0 for their last 3 ATS. If you just look at yards and yards allowed Pitt wins in all categories so I see a bit of value here although Pitt has their work cut out for them against Virginia's defense. VA has been dominant, but they haven't faced a running back like James Conner. Iowa was ranked 28th in run defense and Conner was able to exploit them and rush for over 150 yards. Despite what you may hear from the media Pittsburgh does have weapons to keep a defense honest with Tyler Boyd, who is arguably the best WR in the ACC. He had 7 rec for 111 yards in last year's meeting. Pittsburgh's defense is the main reason I think they cover this spread they have not allowed teams to move the ball and they don't spend a lot of time on the field which shoudln't change against a VA offense that's 80th in the nation in yards per play. Pitt is also 22-7 ATS in their last 29 following a SU loss and they'll want to redeem themselves early here. |
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10-04-14 | Texas A&M +2.5 v. Mississippi State | 31-48 | Loss | -100 | 36 h 9 m | Show | |
Texas A&M +3 -115 buy 1/2 4.5* SEC GOW The Aggies win last week was pretty impressive and they are #3 in our power rankings with the 10th toughest schedule to date. Miss State is ranked #9, but their power rank is #63 for strength of schedule. They won at LSU a team that's just not the same as previous years and then they played teams ranked 101st, 107th, and 123rd and all of a sudden this team is ranked #12 all because of a road win at LSU. They are off a bye, but everyone is telling them how great they are and crowning them as a top 5 team if they beat the Aggies as small favorites. I personally think this line is off despite taking Arkansas last week. Arkansas is drawing a lot of comparisons to MIss State because of their power run game, but Arkansas is a much different and a more challenging match up for the Aggies. MIss State does not dominate time of possession like Arkansas does - ranked 6th in the country. Miss State is just 62nd. The biggest difference is Arkansas pressure defense they play extremely aggressive and press the receivers. In the end A&M made adjustments and it hurt Arkansas, but Miss State likes to play off the receivers like South Carolina and I think Kenny Hill will have a field day. He's got some of the best receivers in the game who are elite in quick pass, yards after catch. Malcome Kennedy, Josh Reynolds and Edward Pope are all top 10 in receiving in the SEC. These are things LSU simply can't do on offense yet LSU still put up 341 yards passing. UAB put 435 yards passing up on Miss State which is nearly 200 more than their season average. I just think this is a terrible match up for Miss State and their head coach Dan Mullen has yet to prove he can come off a bye week and be better prepared. They lost at home to LSU 26-59 last year and 16-34 at South Carolina on extra rest. Miss St also was able to get to LSU who can't protect their QB ranked 107th in pass protection, but again A&M does not have that issue ranked 7th in pass protection. I think Dak Prescott is special and I think he'll move the ball quite a bit on the Aggies, but the red zone is where this game changes. A&M can score in the red zone and they can get stops in the red zone. On the year they are simply a bend but don't break defense allowing just 33% 3rd down conversions and 33.3% red zone TD percentage. This will be the reason they win the game because Miss State against for the most part awful competition are only converting 40% of their third downs and 60% red zone appearances into TD's. ***BONUS***Florida +8.5 /Ohio St -2 4.4* Teaser Of the Week Florida is off the bye week here and are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 trips to Tennessee. Tennessee is over valued here after going into Athens and nearly pulling off a huge upset as a 19 point dog losing 32-35. Florida looked like last year's Florida vs. Alabama, but they had a bye week to prepare and have several things going for them. For one they are still a team that relies on their defense that outside of Alabama has shown they can dominate and Tennessee's offense is ranked 101st in yards per play so I don't see them outscoring Florida by over a TD when Florida is off a bye especially when you take a look at where Tennessee's weakness is on defense. TN is 72nd run defense and they have to defend Florida's attack that has been pretty good with Jeff Driskel back in the mix. Driskel can actually pass and run and he's joined by Matt Jones who is averaging over 5 yards per carry. Ohio State on the other hand gets to face a Maryland team getting all kinds of credit after their big win on the road against Indiana as an under dog. They are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after an ATS win and I think Ohio State is out to prove they don't belong in this conference. Ohio State offense is balanced and getting better by the week. JT Barrett is a better passer than Braxton Miller and has converted 72% of his passes or more in 3 of his 4 games and has gone back to back with 300+ yards. They are 5th in QB rating and 38th in yards per carry. Maryland at times has shown they can be good on defense, but they have also shown they can be beat by teams who are very good at doing one thing. Syracuse ran for over 350 yards and 7.3 ypc, and West Virginia threw for over 500 yards. Ohio State's 710 yard performance on Cinci last week was impressive and they have a good coaching staff. I think RB Ezekiel Elliot is in for a big game while Ohio State's defense has been more dominant than what the public perception is. Maryland also could be without their QB CJ Brown who handles the majority of the offense leading the team in rushing attempts. Even if he plays he shouldn't be 100% which could be a major issue against this defense. |
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10-03-14 | San Diego State v. Fresno State -3 | 13-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
Fresno State -3 3.3* bonus Fresno State has not looked good, but they faced USC, Nebraska and Utah to start the season. Now they get their second game in the Mountain West and it's against San Diego State who realistically has not faced anyone when you consider how poorly Oregon State and UNC have looked. Fresno State's pass defense has been the main issue allowing 17 TD's to just 1 INT, but when you face the teams of that quality you are going to have issues. They have also faced two top 10 rushing attacks along the way so this defense can only trend upwards. On Friday night they get a one dimensional team in San Diego State. San Diego State has just 2 TD passes and 6 interceptions and now they'll start a true freshmen on the road in Nick Bawden on a short week. Fresno has an extra day to prepare because they played last Friday. Fresno is stronger in the front 7 than they have shown and San Diego State is facing a 3-4 defense for the first time all year. Fresno has 4 returning LB's and an NFL caliber NT in Tyeler Davison. Fresno's offense will give San Diego State's defense some issue with their tempo. San Diego State was holding up against UNC and then UNC picked up the tempo and created havoc. Fresno will do it all game and it's going to be something San Diego State can't prepare for on the short week with a young defense. San Diego State's strengths are stopping the run and running the ball which transition well on the road, but the offenses they have faced are NAU, 90th ranked rushing offense followed by 96, and 93. The defenses they have faced are NAU, 122nd, 57th, and 86th. The value resides with Fresno in this game and I"ll take the FG. |
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10-03-14 | Louisville v. Syracuse +3 | Top | 28-6 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
Syracuse +3 4.4* NCAAF POD This is a dangerous game for Louisville and I'm not so sure they can win or even should be favored so I'll take the FG with the home dog in the Carrier Dome where they are extremely dangerous. This year has been odd for Louisville in a bad way as their defense was supposed to struggle while the offense was great under Bobby Petrino, but it's been opposite and a lot has to do with the offenses they have faced in my opinion. Louisville is in fact ranked #2 in run defense, but they have not faced a top 60 unit and have faced an FCS school + 128th ranked run offense and 112th. No doubt those numbers are a bit skewed. Here comes Syracuse ranked #10 with multiple options in their running game including an elite running QB in Terrel Hunt. Hunt has struggled to pass, but back at home against an over rated Louisville defense should change. Syracuses losses have been against some very good teams in Notre Dame and Maryland, who is shocking many people already. Syracuse defense also has the edge here in my opinion. Louisville is very uncertain at QB and they face Syracuse's 17th ranked run defense, but that's not what will get them the win. Their front 7 is aggressive as any and they'll get to the QB particularly at home. They forced Notre Dame into 5 turnovers last week on a neutral field and this week their 22nd ranked sack % team gets to face Louisville who is having all sorts of issues in the pocket ranking 118th in pass protection. To make matters worse for Louisvlle Syracuse has bene dominant in the red zone allowing just 38% TD's. While Lousivlle has also gotten to the QB it's been against some poor protection units and Syracuse is ranked 3rd in sacks allowed which is extremely impressive when you figure they have a mobile QB. |
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10-02-14 | Central Florida +3 v. Houston | Top | 17-12 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
UCF +3.5 4.4* NCAAF POD I don't know who drove this line up to 3.5 points, but I'm thanking them for it. Essentially both teams come off a bye week here and should be fresh for their conference game. Although UCF may have a bit more time to prepare here considering they had Bethune Cookman on 9/20. Either way I expect a competitive game between two teams who are solid on defense and struggling to find an identity on offense, but I think UCF is still the better team with the better coach. UCF is ranked higher in our power rankings 77th to 84th, and strength of schedule 32nd vs. 71st. Houston's wins have come when they can run the ball and despite only doing that roughly 38% of the time. However, they ran the ball against two poor teams in Grambling and UNLV. Against BYU and UTSA they ran for a combined -17 yards. UCF is giving up 2.9 ypc and they have played big opponents like Missouri and Penn State. They have an excellent group of linebackers led by Terrance Plummer who has been in the media this week responding to Houston's WR's comments. Plummer is a great leader who plays with emotion and passion and that's the type of team I like to back as an under dog. Houston's WR Deontay Greenberry is a good player, but he made a dumb comment stating "they weren't that good last year....don't expect a close game this year." I have no idea why he feels that way when you consider how Houston has played this year against competitive opponents, but UCF HC George O'Leary state "one of my players said that he'd be watching the game on TV." It just goes to show you where both teams are. UCF is clearly more mature and has a better coach and the stats back it up. Houston passes 61.5% of hte time and they are not very good at ranked 114th in pass efficiency. We broke down the struggles with the running game so for me the game for Houston relies on O'Korn. He was supposed to make a big step forward in his second year and he hasn't completing just 52% of his passes while throwing 6 interceptions and 6 TD's. I don't see that changing here against UCF which has a seasoned secondary. Missouri's Matty Mauk only had 144 yards passing on them on 14/24 and he had the running game working to create balance. Don't expect O'Korn to have the same advantages here tonight. Central Florida's defense will keep them in the game while the offense I think will gain it's confidence for the first time this season against a decent opponent. UCF is ranked nearly dead last in ypc but they have faced some very good defenses including Penn State ranked 3rd v.s the run. Houston's defense just gave up 5 rushing TD's and 500 yards in their last 2 games combined against BYU and UNLV. I can see BYU rushing well, but UNLV is ranked 90th in yards per rush and they put up 4.36 average and 170 yards. UCF has the threat of their QB taking off and I think he will take a few plays out of BYU's play book for some key first downs. I would feel comfortable taking UCF on the money line if you have to.. This team could easily be 2-1, but their defense has struggled on third down defense, but playing Houston should help as they have only been able to convert 33% of their third downs and we mentioned all the struggles they have had running and throwing the ball. |
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09-27-14 | Notre Dame v. Syracuse +10 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -115 | 43 h 6 m | Show |
SYRACUSE +10 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD Notre Dame is once again getting media attention which is nothing new for this program but ranked number eight in the country is a bit overboard. Nearly 65% of the public is backing Notre Dame here will play on a neutral field at Yankee Stadium. Both teams have experience playing in this stadium in the pinstripe bowl. I like Syracuse a lot here as they just come off a loss against Maryland which gives us a little bit of value in the line. The loss against Maryland was also misleading and lost by 14 but pay average 7.3 yards per carry and outgained Maryland by 220 yards. This offense is very good and can expose Notre Dame as the Irish have yet to face a truly mobile quarterback. Terrel Hunt fits the part for Syracuse and he has a running back and Gulley who is averaging 7.84 yards per carry. They are both playing behind in offense of wine that is extremely experienced with five seniors. Notre Dame has looked great but against who? We all saw how Michigan looked at home against Utah as favorites. That makes Notre Dame's victory against them a little less impressive. This is also Notre Dame's first game away from home and while their run defense has allowed less than 3 yards per carry to have not faced a running game like this. Notre Dame's offense is also misleading in my opinion because they lack multiple go to guys can easily put together a game plan to keep this offense in check. It's also a bad sign when your head coach is looking to shake up the offense of line during your bye week. Which is exactly what Brian Kelly has been doing and that offense of line will be in for a tough test against Syracuse which is very good at stopping the run. |
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09-27-14 | Washington State +14 v. Utah | 28-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Wash St +14 3.3* PAC12 GOW / Wash St +425 0.5* bonus I have backed Utah many times and have won. I like defensive teams, but this defense is built on stopping the run and that's not at all what Washington State does. Last year they put up 578 yards on Utah and this QB they have Halliday is pretty good as he already has 16 TD's. I also like Utah's QB Wilson, but far too often does he make the big mistake. Either way this game should go back and forth and I wouldn't be surprised to see Washington State have a chance to win it on their last drive which is why I'm going to sprinkle a little on the money line. |
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09-27-14 | Duke +7 v. Miami (Fla) | 10-22 | Loss | -115 | 43 h 43 m | Show | |
DUKE +7 3.3* PLAY[/B] Miami struggled big-time with Nebraska's read option we could go and Duke's offense will run something very similar. Dick's offense I believe is a bit more experienced and even a little bit better than Nebraska especially at quarterback with Anthony Boone a senior returning as he faces off against Miami's freshman QB. Dick's offense has a ton of talent from running back to wide receiver to the offense of line and they are well coached. On paper Miami should dominate running the ball against this Duke team but they've had all sorts of issues without the balance of a passing game. Duke Johnson has great numbers is far as yards per carry go but he has not topped 100 yards yet on the season and Miami ranks 92nd in the country in yards per carry on offense. Theeir new quarterback Brad Kaaya has already thrown seven interceptions. Miami's only converting 26% of their third-downs in those struggles have also carried over into their red zone offense. Duke has three senior linebackers returning and they've been solid in these areas which give them a major advantage in this matchup. The biggest reason why I'm backing tubes here is the fact that we are getting them at a key number of +7. But they have played a cleaner season with +5 in the turnover margin while Miami has struggled big-time. Duke also features a top 25 special teams unit while Miami has already allowed a kickoff return for a touchdown take Duke and the points. |
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09-27-14 | Missouri +6 v. South Carolina | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 42 h 18 m | Show | |
MISSOURI +5 3.3* PLAY Missouri just lost two in Indiana's user's team out of the Big Ten last week as a double-digit favorite. I think that gives us plenty of value this week as Missouri now goes on the road to face a very good South Carolina teen that is well coached. However all back the underdog coming off a big loss to rebound here as I think they match up extremely well with South Carolina. South Carolina has really struggled they can't get a pass rush as they are ranked 110 in the country in sac percentage. They are also rank 110th in opposing QB rating on the season as well. Now they are facing very good quarterbacks this early in the season but Maddie Mauk is no slouch that's for sure. South Carolina also played poorly on defense when facing a terrible offense. Vanderbilt is ranked 100 in yards per play this year yet South Carolina allowed them to have nearly 7 yards per play in their last game which is almost 3 yards more than they've been averaging on the season. South Carolina is also allowing 52% conversions on third down and they are allowing 5.27 yards per carry in run defense. Missouri is a balanced attack nearly 50% rushes 50% passes. They also have a lot on the line in this game and it's certainly a revenge came after they lost to South Carolina last year in dramatic fashion at home. Missouri is a well coached team that is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 following in ATS loss. I don't think South Carolina's offense is good enough to score and cover the spread even though Dylan Thompson has looked very good this far in the season. |
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09-27-14 | Florida State v. NC State +18.5 | 56-41 | Win | 101 | 39 h 57 m | Show | |
[b]NC ST +18.5 3.3* PLAY[/b] Florida State was overrated to start the year they were overrated after their first game second gain and 13. Part of it is the sophomore slump after dominating 2013 in winning the national championship. This is another dangerous game Florida State and they have struggled playing here losing five of their last seven. Winston will return after last week's suspension and Florida State should cruise to victory right? NC State had basically up by last week and will be well prepared for what is their game of the year arguably the biggest game at home in their history. That only are they getting the number one ranked team in their own building for the first time ever they also get to face the Heisman Trophy winner for the first time ever at home and as we all know Florida State are the reigning national champions. NC State's defense definitely has a chip on his shoulder in this game after allowing 35 points in 11 minutes in Florida State's Stadium last year. The key to this game is to get pressure on Winston and Florida State's offense of lines having a hard time blocking for him ranked 100 in pass protection. Florida State's offense has definitely not been the same in 2014 and I do expect them to win this game but I think they come into this game often emotional win in overtime last week without Winston and they will be a little slow in the beginning. That should leave plenty opportunity for NC state to cover this widespread at home. |
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09-26-14 | Middle Tennessee State +135 v. Old Dominion | Top | 41-28 | Win | 135 | 3 h 7 m | Show |
Middle Tenn +130 4* NCAAF POD MTSU has plenty of value here coming into the game as the forgotten team in the C-USA battle. MTSU is capable of moving the ball on this Old Dominion defense that should get pushed around quite a bit tonight and a rough time dealing with QB Austin Grammer and their 3 running backs. Grammer will run it as well which will give Old Dominion a different offense to prepare for. Old Dominion is also riding high off a victory on the road against the defending champions in Rice so a let down is very possible here. The schedules just don't compare as MTSU has faced a solid Memphis team which nearly beat UCLA on the road, Minnesota out of the Big Ten on the road and a very good Western Kentucky team. Old Dominion is pretty one dimensional in my opinion with the passing game and Taylor Heinickie and every week there is more tape on him to help prepare. Bottom line against tougher competition MIddle Tenn has played better where it counts which is on 3rd downs and in the red zone. Old Dominion's defense can't get off the field allowing 50% conversions and 76% TD's in the red zone. Compare that with Middle Tennessee's 42% defense (38% on the road) and 43% TD rate in the red zone on defense and you have a significant advantage. This is a big conference game and I'll lean on experience as Old Dominion suffers a let down here after their big victory over Rice. |
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09-25-14 | UCLA v. Arizona State +4 | Top | 62-27 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
Arizona State +4.5 4.4* NCAAF POD This line is about right with Arizona State's QB Taylor Kelly missing the game and a lot of unknowns. However, I feel confident in Arizona State at home despite their defense not being a top tier unit. They lost 8 starters from a year ago, but these guys playing at home with a chip on their shoulder knowing they are the supposed weakest unit will be interesting to see. They actually get a good match up here in my opinion going against UCLA. UCLA has not been good on offense despite having an NFL QB in Brett Hundley who is not 100% healthy thanks to the atrocious play of his offensive line and no real game changers on offense. UCLA is 72nd in yards per play and 115th in sack % allowed. Arizona State always has an aggressive front with athletes and they may be inexperienced, but I'm betting on them coming up big tonight in this marquee match up. They will see a balanced offense, but neither the passing or the running game of UCLA scares me right now. Arizona State offense has been superb ranking 3rd in yards per play, but they have not played anyone. They have had 12 days to prepare and with a new QB in Mike Bercovici and I think they will be able to move the ball. UCLA has big names that are over hyped this unit is 111th in sack % and they can't pin their ears back against Arizona State's big OL because the running game is a real threat with DJ Foster who is averaging 9.44 yards per carry. I don't see how UCLA will keep Arizona State from moving the ball and their play up front is simply not good enough to be a road favorite. They can't get to the QB and they can't protect their QB and they're a road favorite? I'll take the points enjoy! |
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09-20-14 | Oklahoma v. West Virginia +8.5 | 45-33 | Loss | -120 | 43 h 17 m | Show | |
West Virginia +8 3.3* play |
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09-20-14 | Florida Atlantic +4 v. Wyoming | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 40 h 50 m | Show | |
Florida Atlantic +4 4.4* play |
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09-20-14 | Utah +3.5 v. Michigan | 26-10 | Win | 100 | 39 h 29 m | Show | |
Utah +4 3.3* play |
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09-20-14 | Iowa +7 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 36 h 10 m | Show |
Iowa +7 5.5* NCAAF POD; Iowa +230 1* bonus |
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09-19-14 | Connecticut +3 v. South Florida | Top | 14-17 | Push | 0 | 3 h 48 m | Show |
Connecticut +3 -115 4.5* NCAAF POD |
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09-18-14 | Auburn v. Kansas State +9.5 | Top | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
Kansas State +9.5 -105 4.5* NCAAF POD 13 straight covers for Auburn and now they go on the road on a Thursday night early in the season for a very tough challenge. I can't help but think this line is high from 13 straight covers and the media hype that Auburn gets which is clearly earned. However, I'm still a bit skeptical about this year's Auburn Tigers and we have not learned anything after their first two games other than we know this team can run the ball. However, they just ran the ball at home against two below average defenses in Arkansas and San Jose State. The challenge on Thursday night is going on the road to face Bill Snyder's under rated defense. Snyder has had success in these type of games especially with his defensive scheme. Snyder will have his defense playing man on the outside and blitzing forcing everything to funnel through the middle of the field. I'm not saying Auburn won't be effective, because I think they will move the ball fine, but I think Kansas State will get some red zone stops for sure. Auburn will be tested here a bit and we may finally see the growing pains of losing their stud LT Greg Robinson in the off season and now LG Alex Kozan which are both huge loses. It also helps Snyder and the Wildcats that Auburn's QB Nick Marshall has yet to show he's improved from last year in the passing game. This Auburn team is still one dimensional against a sound defense until further notice in my opinion. Marshall may prove me wrong, but he's also going to prove Bill Snyder wrong if he takes over this game with his arm for all 4 quarters. I just don't see that happening here. The Wildcats are also more prepared for this type of offense than most defenses especially compared against Auburn's first two opponents. For one they face a similar option offense in practice that's geared towards the run and have done so for years. Secondly, tempo is something Auburn believes in and uses, but in the Big 12 every team seems to run that tempo offense and Kansas State has had plenty of success against it over the years with Snyder at the helm. One of the biggest reasons I like Kansas State here as a top play is their offense and the Auburn defense. Auburn has the skill on the front 4 to get after a QB, but the way Kansas State's offense is run I think they are going to have issues containing Jake Waters. This is a unique offense that will use just about every formation. Kansas State may run the ball the majority of the time, but they can also pass and they feature a WR that Auburn won't be able to cover in Tyler Locket. Kansas State is a better team than Arkansas who gave Auburn more than they could handle on offense averaging over 5 yards per carry in Auburn's home building. Expect nearly 5 ypc tonight from Kansas State with 3rd down conversions, unlike Arkansas who only converted 2-11 on third down. |
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09-13-14 | UCLA v. Texas +7.5 | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 43 h 18 m | Show | |
Texas +8 4.4* play[/b] |
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09-13-14 | Wake Forest +15 v. Utah State | 24-36 | Win | 100 | 42 h 19 m | Show | |
Wake Forest +15 2.2* play |
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09-13-14 | Arkansas +1.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 49-28 | Win | 100 | 39 h 56 m | Show |
Arkansas +1.5 5.5* NCAAF POD |
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09-13-14 | East Carolina +10 v. Virginia Tech | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 35 h 13 m | Show | |
East CArolina +10 3.3* Early Bird Special Here comes Virginia Tech at home after they pulled off the amazing road victory over a top 10 team in Ohio state which pretty much nobody saw coming. But Forster's defense was suffocating and really dominated that game and it will to probably dominate on Saturday. However I'm still taking the generous points given to me by the oddsmakers and I will back east Carolina in this game. East Carolina also has a defense that's pretty darn good this game is 15 to 10 last year. East Carolina also just came within 10 points on the road of the few South Carolina which is a better team in Virginia Tech in my opinion. I really like is Carolinas ability to put up some points here enough to at least stay within this number. Shane Carden had 33 touchdowns 10 interceptions last year with a 70% completion rate he's a senior he also wants to seek revenge on Virginia Tech we threw three interceptions against last year. Carden does not have to do it all on his own he's got wide receiver Justin Hartley who is getting tatted as a first round pick in next years NFL draft. No doubt Virginia Tech to defense offers the biggest challenge of 2014 however East Carolina is very familiar with this defense the face them two times in the last year and I think again these teams know each other very well why do respect for each other and I really think it's gonna be a close game throughout. At the end of the day as good as Virginia text defenses their offense is not good enough to cover double digits friend. East Carolina will stack a box in and out on the outside and I just don't see quarterback Michael Brewer being able to win those one-on-one match ups his accuracy is there but I just don't see him being able to avoid the big mistake against this aggressive defense. Virginia Tech is eat in 19 against the spread in the last 27 following a straight up when 310 in the last 13 following and against the spread one and four and 11 and two against the spread in the last 17 nonconference games. |
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09-12-14 | Toledo +10.5 v. Cincinnati | 34-58 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 36 m | Show | |
[b]Toledo +10 2.2* play[/b] |
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09-11-14 | Louisiana Tech +4 v. North Texas | Top | 42-21 | Win | 100 | 2 h 56 m | Show |
LA Tech +4 4.4* NCAAF POD |
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09-06-14 | Air Force -2 v. Wyoming | 13-17 | Loss | -106 | 28 h 45 m | Show | |
Air Force -2 3.3* Late night fix |
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09-06-14 | Michigan +4 v. Notre Dame | 0-31 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 4 m | Show | |
[b]Michigan +3.5 3.3* college assurance[/b] |
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09-06-14 | Ole Miss v. Vanderbilt +20 | Top | 41-3 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 11 m | Show |
Vanderbilt +20 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD |
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09-06-14 | USC v. Stanford -3 | 13-10 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
Stanford -2.5 2.2* winner |
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09-06-14 | Navy -3 v. Temple | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 36 m | Show | |
NAVY -3 3.3* EARLY BIRD PLAY |
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09-04-14 | Arizona -7 v. Texas-San Antonio | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
Arizona -7 -104 4.5* POD |
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08-31-14 | Utah State +5 v. Tennessee | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
Utah State +5 4.4* NCAAF POD |
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08-30-14 | LSU v. Wisconsin +4 | 28-24 | Push | 0 | 3 h 12 m | Show | |
Wisconsin +4 2.2* play |
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08-30-14 | Arkansas +18.5 v. Auburn | 21-45 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 23 m | Show | |
Arkansas +18.5 3.3* NCAAF College Assurance Bret Bielema is a damn fine coach and despite the results last year he was not that far away. Bielema loves to trash talk the tempo offense and now he gets his shot after an entire off season to prepare. Look for him to run the ball and kill the clock in this one and he should have no issue doing so. Auburn's defense is far from elite and they gave up 200+ yards rushing to 6 teams last year including Arkansas. This team actually gave up a more yards to power running teams which is exactly what Arkansas is with RB's Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams. Overall Auburn's offense is much better and they are going to be hard to stop but I expect Arkansas can limit their possessions and I do like their defense a bit better along with the impressive hires they did for the defense gives me plenty of confidence and value on taking Arkansas at +18.5. |
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08-30-14 | UCLA v. Virginia +21 | Top | 28-20 | Win | 100 | 35 h 25 m | Show |
Virginia +21 5.5* NCAAF POD |
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08-30-14 | Penn State v. Central Florida -2 | 26-24 | Loss | -100 | 32 h 59 m | Show | |
UCF -2 3.3* NCAAF POD |
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08-29-14 | Texas-San Antonio +10.5 v. Houston | Top | 27-7 | Win | 100 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
UTSA +10.5 4.4* NCAAF POD |
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08-28-14 | Ole Miss v. Boise State +11 | 35-13 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 42 m | Show | |
Boise State +11 3.3* College Assurance |
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08-28-14 | Texas A&M +11 v. South Carolina | Top | 52-28 | Win | 100 | 20 h 56 m | Show |
Texas A&M +10.5 4.4* NCAAF POD South Carolina and Texas A&M get the SEC network started and both will be without two of the biggest names in college football as Manziel and Clowney are now in the NFL. However, what remains are two top coaches in Kevin Sumlin and Steve Spurrier and two top 10 recruiting classes. South Carolina returns more starters, but I don't believe it's enough to warrant being double digit favorites to start the year. First of all Kevin Sumlin is a very very good offensive coach and A&M is 10-2 on the road with him at the helm. He also has blue chip guys at all of the skill positions including two at QB and two at RB. The offensive line is always a strength with this unit as they return 4 of their 5 starters after losing Jake Mathews to the NFL draft. This unit has the potential to be better. As of today I think Texas A&M's offense is better than South Carolina's who are dealing with the loss of two of their best offensive players in Ellington and Shaw. The offense has to completely change for them with Dylan Thompson who is a completely different QB. I think Thompson is capable, but again this offense will be built to run the football which should benefit us in covering the double digit spread by slowing the game down. This spread is where it's at due to the loss of starters and how bad the defense looked last year for A&M, but their is a silver lining. A&M's defense picked it up last part of the year and they won't be dealing with the injury crisis they were in 2013. I don't think this unit is far from being a top 50 defense and I think they'll be able to handle a more traditional one dimensional attack to open the season. Spurrier and the Gamecocks were 37th in rushing play % and the same the year before. With the strength of the offensive line I see no reason why they won't try to run the ball 60% of the time to ensure victory. So A&M gets the nod on offense, South Carolina gets the edge on defense, and I think A&M gets the nod on special teams. South Carolina has a senior punter in Hall but he averaged just 37.8 yards per punt and the South Carolina lacks any type of a return game and that's nothing new the last five years they have ranked 94th, 75th, 112th, 86th, and 114th in the nation. That will not benefit you early in the season against a good coach and a talented team with potential. A&M's kicker averaged 47.4 yards and their place kicker often forced touchbacks. I think A&M will be able to benefit from field advantage |
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01-06-14 | Auburn +10.5 v. Florida State | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Auburn +10.5 5.5** NCAAF POD
I'll take the Tigers against the "unbeatable Seminoles." I looked at several aspects of this game, but what I started with was strength of schedule. Not only is the ACC over rated and have gone 4-5 in bowl games, but the SEC is better than last year and is not down based on some experts claims. The SEC is 7-2 in bowl games and Georgia played without their star QB and Alabama didn't want to be there. SEC had 30 wins vs. top 25 teams while the ACC had 2 going 2-26. The Seminoles had the 39th hardest schedule compared to Auburn's 6th. Seminoles non-conference schedule really boosted a lot of stats as they faced a helpless Florida team and then Bethune Cookman, Nevada and Idaho who are both way at the back of solid college football teams. Nonetheless we give the Seminoles plenty of credit for winning all of their games by 27 or more points with the exception of Boston College..... BC was the one team that Florida State faced in the top 40 in rushing ypc. BC was 12th and as we saw in their bowl game they were not that good against Arizona. However, Auburn ranked 5th and they don't appear to be slowing down. FSU gave up 200 yards to Boston College and if you don't believe Auburn is a better team you are crazy. In this game I think absolutely Auburn will be able to run the ball. They may have to be a little creative to get it going, but with extra time to prepare Guz Malzahn is a genius. This is a guy that broke Auburn records with over 4,000 yards rushing and is also responsible for a 5,000 passing season at Tulsa. I give the coaching edge to Auburn. It's not like Nick Marshall can't pass either. Marshall came in early knowing only 25% of the playbook, but you could see this offense get better with every game this season and the depth they have at RB is solid to pair with Heisman candidate Tre Mason. I don't see a game on Florida State's schedule that they had to prepare for an offense even remotely close to what Auburn can do. Which means I believe Auburn will get their points. Now their defense is another story, but hidden under everything... Auburn's ability to hold up on third down holding opponents to 34% and in the red zone they have been amazing holding opponents to 48% TD's will keep them in this game. If they can get pressure on Winston and cause a couple of turnovers I think they can win and Florida State was not great at protecting Winston ranked 83rd in pass protection. A couple of game changers on Auburn's side obviously we know the Nick Marshall and Tre Mason's of the world, but Chris Davis at corner back and Sammie Coates at WR are really really good. This entire Auburn team believes they are a team of destiny and they continue to fight back no matter the situation. Florida State has never been in a tight game in the 4th. Winston seems cool under pressure, but I think Florida State thinks they already won this game while the idea of nobody thinking you can win is really motivating in preparation for an Auburn team. I think 10.5 points is just too much for a team like Florida State who I feel is unproven especially vs. a really good running team. |
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01-05-14 | Arkansas State +7 v. Ball State | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
[b]Ark State +7 2.75* play[/b]
I've been fading the MAC all Bowl season with the exception of Ohio which collapsed against East Carolina in the 4th quarter, but the MAC is 0-4 and very over rated. Ball State put up huge numbers behind the duo of Sneed and Wenning, but they did a lot of it against poor teams. They faced only two other bowl teams and lost both of those games while the very over rated Northern Illinois team crushed them. They got an easy non-conference schedule and then skipped over 3 of the 4 bowl teams in the MAC while playing the 3 worst. Anyone can put up big numbers against those type of teams. Arkansas State on the other hand faced both of SEC division champs in Missouri and Auburn in their non-conference schedule which really helped them down the stretch. They also have a senior QB in Adam Kennedy who got hot down the stretch and he's accurate and he can also run the ball. Take a look at the last time Ball State faced a rushing QB (N. Illinois). Ball State allowed 7 teams to rush for 200+ yards and 6 teams to rush over 5 ypc. The key to winning for Arkansas State is rushing the ball as they have 5.23 in their wins and 3.40 in their losses. I think in the end Arkansas State has more of a capability of stopping Wenning than Ball State can stop the running attack of Arkansas State. Arkansas State also does not beat themselves with 13 turnovers all season while Ball State was -4 in the TO margin in their losses. |
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01-04-14 | Houston v. Vanderbilt UNDER 52.5 | 24-41 | Loss | -106 | 1 h 21 m | Show | |
[b]Houston +3 -105 BOVADA 4.4* NCAAF POD; Under 52.5 3.3* Bonus [/b]
This is an interesting battle between two teams that were well coached this year and have very different identities. Houston wants to pass it as they were ranked 11th in pass play % and they had a true freshman at the helm doing it in Joe O'Korn who had a very under rated year. While Vanderbilt is without their starting QB and have to turned to an inexperienced QB in red shirt freshman Patton Robinette. I really like Houston and the under in this game. First things I looked at was how is Houston scoring points. Their high totals were either when they significantly won the TO margin by more than +1 or they were able to pass all over a defense or were in a highly paced game. Vanderbilt is about as middle of the road in turnovers, but I think they will lean a lot on the run today and the TO margin won't be there. However, I do like Houston to win the TO margin as they have done in 10 of their 12 games. The 2 they did not win it they were even so that's an advantage I like for them winning this game. Since we know Houston wants to pass first I took a look at a few variances in terms of where they ranked, who they faced, where they struggled and how often they did better than the competitions season average. Results were a bit shocking, because I did not think Houston had a great passing game or at least it is not as good as previous seasons with Case Keenum. With that said they faced an average passing defense ranked 57th in QB rating. They were able to have a higher passer rating in 6 of the 11 games they faced. They faced 5 top 40 pass defenses just like Vanderbilt and were only able to pass over their average defense allowed two times and both those times came early in the season. Houston really struggled down the stretch passing the ball when they had the trio of games vs. Cinci, Louisville and Central Florida which ironically were their 3 losses and all three of those games were low scoring games. Next I looked at Vanderbilt's pass defense to see how legit they are because they are 39th in QB rating and 11th yards per attempt but 93rd in completion %. They allow a lot of under neath and that could be troublesome against Houston's athletic speedy receivers. However, Vanderbilt held 11 of their 11 opponents under their season average for QB rating and they did so against a 61st ranked QB rating on average. My conclusion is that Houston will have some success but not enough to dominate this game as Vanderbilt will make some key stops to stay in the game throughout. The next thing I looked at was Vanderbilt s key to success to move the ball which is running the ball. Vanderbilt was not very good at it ranked 105th so there is optimism that they may just ditch that game plan, but I don't see that happening here considering their offensive line is leaky and Houston is great at getting to the QB and forcing mistakes which Vanderbilt knows they have to avoid against the best TO margin team in the country.... So running it is and that should slow the game significantly. Houston however is 16th vs. the run and they held 9 of their 11 opponents under their average. The average rushing offense combined they faced was 71st. Vanderbilt averaged only 3.53 ypc and you can expect them to average under 3 today because they faced an average run defense ranked 76th on the season and 10 of their 11 games they were held under their average. Their offensive line is just not very good at protecting the QB and making room for this running game. Even the game they averaged 5.89 ypc it was against a defense ranked 120th allowing 5.8 ypc. My conclusion is that Vanderbilt won't be able to move the ball at all on the ground, but will continue to try because that's what they do and Patton Robinette is not capable even against Texas A&M his highest out put of passing attempts he was 15-28 216 yards and 2 interceptions with 1 TD. A&M was one of the worst passing defenses this year ranked 85th while Houston is 23rd. That's a huge risk if they go to the air and it can only result in a Houston victory. Houston is also 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. SEC. |
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01-04-14 | Houston +2.5 v. Vanderbilt | 24-41 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 21 m | Show | |
write up coming
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01-03-14 | Clemson v. Ohio State -3 | Top | 40-35 | Loss | -104 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
Ohio State -2.5 5.5** NCAAF POD
There are a lot of statistics I went through this game before making a selection, but the last thing I looked at was the coaching and the edge is clearly on Urban Meyer. Clemson under Swinney are 2-3 SU and ATS in bowl games and they are 11-6 SU and 8-8 ATS following a loss which once again they came off of against South Carolina a superior opponent. Urban Meyer throughout his career is 12-1 SU and 9-2-2 ATS following a loss. We already saw when Michigan State beat Stanford that the loss was legit. We also saw Iowa give LSU everything they could so the Big Ten is gaining respect and I think we get this line at a value. Also Meyer is 6-1 SU and ATS in bowl games and don't forget Ohio State has not been able to go since the 2011 season. I don't see that you'll see the traditional hang over from being one game away from the National Championship. Now that we have the better coach on our side I took a look at what each team does well and where there struggles were and can they over come them to win this game? With that said I think we all know that both teams have great offenses and the defenses are not very good. Can Clemson stop Ohio State's nation leading rushing attack? The answer is no, actually it is an absolutely no chance no way. There were a lot of great running backs, but Carlos Hyde was the best one I saw all year. Braxton Miller is also easily a top rusher not as only a QB so stopping that just is not going to be possible. Clemson's run defense allowed 200+ to all 3 solid rushing teams they faced. The #1 key in this game probably though is Ohio State's pass defense which really struggled and I think this is where the coaching comes into play. This is where the time off really benefits the Buckeyes and don't forget Urban Meyer played DB in college. Clemson is 86th in protecting their QB and Ohio State has a great pass rush ranking 28th in sack %. Noah Spence and Joey Bosa and Ryan Shazier are all top talents. Both South Carolina and Florida State featured top 40 pass rushes that defeated Clemson. Clemson has a 96 QB rating in their losses and a 175 QB rating in their wins. Ohio State is also great at getting tackles in the backfield with 89 on the season which is impressive for a Big 12 team. To put it in perspective Michigan State's had 91, and Clemson allowed 88, while Ohio State only had 46. Which sets us up for how a team is going to do on 3rd down. Ohio State held opponents to 34% conversions on third down while Clemson held opponents to 31%, but in Clemson's losses they allowed 58% and we already established that Ohio State will play ahead of the chains all game long with their elite running tandem. They were 49% on third down this season better than Clemson's offense which was 44%. The same is transitioned over to the red zone where Ohio State was 83% on 60 attempts to Clemson 67% on 56 attempts. In the end the Buckeyes need and want a post season win and Urban Meyer is thirsty for one. Dabo Swinney got his big upset last year vs. LSU. I look for Ohio State to get a double digit win for us. |
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01-03-14 | Oklahoma State -1 v. Missouri | 31-41 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 41 m | Show | |
[b]Oklahoma State -1 4.4* PLAY[/b]
Wow what a crazy match up this is as both teams had a chance to win their final game and win their conference championship but came up short. Both teams used to face off against each other in the Big 12 and Mike Gundy and Gary Pinkel know plenty of each other. Gundy has won 3 of the 4 match ups including one game where he was a +14 under dog on the road. He is also 12-3 in his last 15 games following a SU loss and he is 5-2 in bowl games while Pinkel is just 4-4 in many more seasons in bowl games at Missouri. For Missouri it was almost the perfect season and they are a solid team, but what you won't see in the stat line is some of their luck of facing teams at the right time. Florida and Georgia were both banged up when they defeated them and then South Carolina had a miracle come back after dominating most of the game so even though I was high on Missouri throughout the season I knew at times they were very fortunate and I don't think they can get up for this game after coming off a tough SEC match up where they gave up so many rushing yards in the end if the defense does not get a pass rush and are making tackles for loss they just cant' stop you. Oklahoma State is able to beat good offenses. Just take a look at their wins vs. Kansas State who is 13th in QB rating and Baylor who was 4th. In both of their losses their QB struggled. I think he'll be fine in this game however because Missouri won't be getting sacks as Oklahoma State is 5th in protecting the QB. Missouri is 100th in completion % defense and 103rd in passing yards allowed so I see Oklahoma State being able to move the ball through the air at will. Even bigger keys are what Missouri didn't do when they lost games and in their 2 losses they could not convert on third down with 23%, Oklahoma St holds opponents to 31% which is better than Missouri's 37% defense. Missouri also converts 70% of their red zone attempts into TD's, but only 50% in losses which was their issue against Auburn. Oklahoma State is great in the red zone even better than Auburn and South Carolina holding opponents to 41% and it will be the reason they win this game. |
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01-02-14 | Oklahoma v. Alabama UNDER 53 | Top | 45-31 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
Oklahoma +17 2.2* play; Under 53 4.4* NCAAF POD
A few things working here in my opinion, but first off you have to realize that Alabama's schedule was extremely easy and the defenses they faced were not good. In fact they missed out on all the top SEC defenses and a faced a young LSU defense. You could easily argue that this is the best defense they've faced all year as Oklahoma is top 25 in passing and rushing defense. Virginia Tech arguably would be the best team they faced and you shouldn't be fooled by the 35-10 final score in that game. Virginia Tech actually out gained Alabama as they held them to 206 yards. There were two special team returns for TD's in that game and I don't see that happening again. So we know Alabama's offense won't be able to just roll through this game, and when you add in the fact that there have been distractions of Heisman Trophy awards and Saban possibly going to Texas before securing a new big contracts and there are a lot of reasons why this offense and team probably is going to struggle in this game. Alabama is 3-10 ATS following a SU loss and it was a devastating one that cost them a 3rd national championship. Oklahoma is certainly going to have more energy in this game. Oklahoma really only gave up big totals when they faced fast paced teams in Texas and Baylor who both had 80 and 82 plays against them. Alabama is 117th in plays per game so I expect a very vanilla grind it out type of game on both sides. Oklahoma's offense will struggle because in their two losses they could not run the ball and put up just 20 and 12 points. I'm expecting a 20-14 or 20-17 type game. |
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01-02-14 | Oklahoma +17 v. Alabama | 45-31 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
2.2* bonus
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01-01-14 | Michigan State +6.5 v. Stanford | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 5 m | Show | |
Michigan State +6.5 +100 3* play[/b]
Wow even without Max Bullough I still think Michigan State has tremendous value here when you take a look at the keys. How do you beat Stanford? The games that Stanford has lost or struggled in a few things happened. In wins Keith Hgan had a 163 QB rating and in losses a 114 QB rating. Hogan never played well against the good pass defenses and Michigan State is #1 with legit lock down corners that will play you in man coverage. They faced 5 top 40 pass defenses and his QB ratings were all bad 110, 120, 85.5 and 83. He's just not a game changer and that will allow Michigan State to stack the box. The next thing is to protect the ball and that's something Michigan State does very well. In both of Stanford's losses they were negative in turnover margin and they were -1 on the season as good as their defense was they don't force turnovers. Michigan State does not turn the ball over and is +14 in turnovers this year. The third thing is to stay ahead of the chains. Michigan State has a very under rated offensive line that never seems to get credit, but they played a great game vs. Ohio State who has a great pass rush. Stanford's defense has not been dominant when they can't get to the QB and create negative plays which go hand in hand in turnovers. Michigan State was 12th in pass protection and only allowed 13 sacks. Guess what Stanford had just 3 sacks in their 2 losses combined. Some may point to the Notre Dame game and ask why Michigan State lost and I would say they got robbed. Watching that game there were 10 penalties for 115 yards which changed the game. A lot of tick tack pass interference calls. I would also say that Michigan State's offense has improved drastically since especially Connor Cook who seems to make great decisions and has a big arm. I think Stanford is going to have a tougher time stopping Michigan State's offense than they did with Wisconsin last year as Cook is better than Curt Phillips. Michigan State will also dominate the field position battle as their punter is very under rated. Mike Sadler will pin you inside your 10 with ease and that can only make the Spartans offense better in the long run. |
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01-01-14 | Iowa v. LSU -7 | Top | 14-21 | Push | 0 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
LSU -6.5 -120 5.5* NCAAF POD[/b]
Iowa's staple defeat was ironically Nebraska who we are backing and I don't think it was very impressive when you look at how banged up Nebraska was for that game then you add in the fact that they had 4 injuries during the game and it's not shock that a physical team like Iowa lost that game. Whenever Iowa had to step up their play to play an elite team they lost. They lost by 12 to Michigan State 10 to Ohio State and 19 to Wisconsin. I would not call Northern Illinois an elite team, but they do have a dominant rushing attack and Iowa lost to them as well. LSU is of the same caliber running the ball as Wisconsin and Ohio State and although Iowa was 18th vs. the run this year and feature some of the best linebackers they allowed 273 and 218 to those two teams. LSU should be able to move the ball on the ground even without the threat of Zack Mettenberger's arm. If anything I think Anthony Jennings will provide for a better rushing attack, because he is also a threat to rip off yards in chunks. Cam Cameron is a very good offensive mind and the extra time will allow him to put things into the game that fit to Jennings who has a ton of upside. It will help that Iowa is among the worst in the nation at getting to the QB ranking 75th in sack %. Jennings also has a pair of NFL ready receivers in Landry and Beckham that just don't exist in the Big Ten. On the flip side LSU's defense is young and really emerged as the season went on. They held Johny Football to 10 points and the elite Auburn attack to 21 points. I really think the extra time benefits LSU's defense the most in this game and I don't Iowa can put up 10 points. Iowa lacks any type of player that can stretch a defense and change the game and LSU knows it. LSU has some great athletes and they should be able to cheat up and make plays behind the line of scrimmage. LSU owes their fans for the last two years with the collapse against Clemson and their shocking defeat in the Championship vs. Alabama. Iowa is not in the caliber of those two teams and I see LSU cruising to an easy victory by double digits. |
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01-01-14 | Wisconsin -1 v. South Carolina | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 50 m | Show | |
Wisconsin -1.5 3.3* play[/b]
I find it a little strange that South Carolina at #9 is an under dog against a Big 10 team that's ranked #19, but Wisconsin was better than their loss vs. Penn State and they deserved better than what happened at Arizona State and if you watched the Ohio State game they actually played better. Both teams love to run the ball and win with the run and that is what I concentrated on in this game Wisconsin was 2nd in ypc rushing offense while South Carolina was averaging nearly 2 yards less and Wisconsin ranked 15th in rushing defense while South Carolina is ranked 57th. Whenever South Carolina played good rushing offenses they seemed to struggle and this is the best rushing attack they will face all year long. I made a lot of money on South Carolina this season and I think Connor Shaw is a very good college QB, but I don't even know if he will make it through this game the way Wisconsin plays physical football. He is also notorious for coming up short in big games that he's not playing in his own stadium so I think Wisconsin wins here. |
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01-01-14 | Nebraska +9 v. Georgia | 24-19 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show | |
Nebraska +9 3.3* Play[/b]
This is a rare occasion where you play the same team in back to back bowl games. Now Nebraska was nothing special this year, but I believe the revenge factor with all the time to prepare is going to be a factor. Georgia also has been killed by injuries all year and now they are without their most important player in Aaron Murray as Hutson Mason will have his work cut out for him. Georgia has not done well against run first teams and Nebraska has an excellent running game with a top 5 running back in Ameer Abdullah. Georgia was 2-4 vs. teams that ran the ball 37+ times this year in a game and their wins were by 7 and 3 points. Nebraska averaged 45 carries per game and had just 2 games with less than 37 carries in losses against Minnesota and Michigan State. |
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12-31-13 | Mississippi State -7 v. Rice | 44-7 | Win | 100 | 17 h 30 m | Show | |
[b]Miss St -6.5 -120 buy 1/2 4* play[/b]
Miss State is 83rd in run defense allowing 4.6 ypc and Rice is 9th in the country running ball 65% of the time. Miss State wins when they stop the run and a closer look reveals just how challenging of a schedule they have had facing 9 top 50 rushing offense in which they only allowed 200+ yards 3 times. They held an explosive Auburn team to a season low 120 yards and they did it on the road so I truly believe they can stop Rice from running the ball and Rice is completely one dimensional. Conference USA was 1-16 vs. top 40 teams and when you look at Miss State's schedule they were far better than their record indicated. I think this will be a game where the defense just takes over and the benefits of holding Rice to 3 and outs will benefit the offense that also likes to runt he ball with a power attack. All 6 of Miss State teams are to top 25 teams and I just feel they are a far better team than Rice who had their glory by upsetting Marshall in the CUSA Championship. |
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12-31-13 | Boston College +7.5 v. Arizona | Top | 19-42 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
[b]Boston College +7.5 4.4* NCAAF POD[/b]
This game is going to be a very exciting game featuring two of the best running backs in the country in Ka'Deem Carey and Andre Williams. Looking at this game it's going to be important to stop the run, but both of these running backs have been pretty match up proof running well against even the best. However, I give the edge to Boston College's rushing defense ranked 36th in the country over Arizona ranked 73rd. Arizona did face a stronger dose of running games in the PAC 12, but not by far and their 3-3-5 defense is better for defending spread rushing offenses. Every time they faced a north and south rushing game like BC they were allowing big games. BC on the other hand played their best running the ball against top run defenses and defending against the top rushing offenses. They held Florida State to 159 yards and were the only team to really scare Florida State on the season and they played extremely well at Clemson. Boston College is much stronger in the front 7 with 14 more sacks and 12 more tackles for loss. What type of run defenses did these two go up again? Arizona rarely had to go on the road to face a good run defense and only faced 5 top 50 run stop units all year and they'll face #6 in their bowl game while Boston College had to face 8 top 50 run defenses and many on the road. They faced two top 10 rushing defenses in Virginia Tech and Florida State and they had 87 carries for 396 yards. Many will point to the USC game that both of these teams had to travel to as why Arizona is better at stopping or running the ball, but that's a ridiculous trip for BC who had to go on the road the next week to face FSU after traveling across the country. This game is going to start at 12:30 on New Years Eve and I give the edge to BC in that scenario. Overall I don't see a drastic difference between these two teams for there to be a 7 point spread. Thought I spoke on the rushing games a ton there are QB's playing in this game that will be called upon and BC has the better more capable QB in Rettig and a WR in Alex Amidon while Arizona has a better secondary, but they lack a pass rush. I give a slight edge to BC for balance on offense and I would give them a decent shot at pulling off the upset thus the 7.5 points give us tremendous value here. |
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12-30-13 | Ole Miss -3 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 25-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show |
Ole Miss -3 -103 5.5* NCAAF POD
Georgia Tech running the triple option is a tough team to prepare for, but when you take a look at their success in bowl games it's obvious that the extra time definitely benefits the opposing team. Last year they beat USC in their bowl game, but they are 1-7 in their previous 8 bowl games and we see the same struggles from Navy who runs the same offense. Georgia Tech will run the ball over 75% of the time and Ole Miss is young on defense, but they have the athletes and talent to stop this triple option. They ranked 54th vs. the run this year, but what was even more impressive was how they did having to face 8 top 50 rushing offenses, 5 of which were in the top 25. Ole Miss had a much stronger schedule to work through and came up with big wins. The only big win that Georgia Tech came up with all year long was Duke and that was before anyone knew Duke was any good. Ole Miss was close on the road against Auburn, and they beat LSU. They did struggle down the stretch, but a win here and we will be looking at this team completely different. Hugh Freeze is a good coach and Ole Miss has had success in these bowl games I also think their offense is going to give Georgia Tech major issues. Ole Miss is a balanced offense but when they can pass the ball they generally win. They were 36th in QB rating led by an experienced Bo Wallace. In wins this year Ole Miss had a 158 QB rating and in losses a 114 QB rating. Georgia Tech in wins allowed a 106 QB rating and in losses allowed a 180 QB rating. They only faced three teams with a better QB rating than Ole Miss and in all three games the defense allowed 45, 41 and 55 points. Georgia did not even have Aaron Murray and still hung up 41 points on Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech was 95th in yards per pass attempt 94th in QB rating and 85th in yards allowed. They played an average 59th ranked passing offense not including the two non FBS schools in Elon and Alabama A&M that helped skew some of their defensive and offensive stats on the season. Overall they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. the SEC and Ole Miss is 18-5 ATS in their last 23 non-conference games. It looks too easy, but sometimes it is, go Rebels! |
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12-30-13 | Middle Tenn State +7 v. Navy | 6-24 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 29 m | Show | |
[b]MTSU +7 3.3* Early Bird Special / MTSU +220 1* PLAY[/b]
I like fading these triple option offenses in the post season, because they do not have as much flexibility in their playbook and the extra time for a defense to prepare makes it hard for them to win games. Navy is 1-5 in their last 6 bowl games and Georgia Tech is 1-7 in their last 8. MTSU is a solid team that is playing with a chip on their shoulder this bowl season after going 8-4 last year and not getting a bowl invite. MTSU was ranked 65th in rushing defense this year, but they played better down the stretch also it's worth noting that in 2012 when their defense was worse and they faced Georgia Tech with extra time to prepare they won 49-28. Their linebackers are under sized, but fast and athletic which is a good match up going up against Navy. Navy has one guy that the defense can key on and that's Keenan Reynolds. If you can stop Reynolds you win the game. MTSU does not beat themselves with just 4 penalties per game and a +11 turnover margin. They also are 7-0 when they run for over 200 yards which they should be able to do against a very bad Navy rushing team ranked 84th in yards per carry allowed. This run defense allowed Hawaii who ranked 110th in rushing the ball to go for 218 yards in their own building. MTSU is ranked 29th and should have plenty of success especially with a veteran behind center in Logan Killgore who should be able to get TD's in the red zone because Navy allowed 71% TD's in red zone defense and they were terrible on third down as well. I see Navy can get the running game going a bit, but it won't be enough as their defense just can't make any stops. |
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12-28-13 | Michigan v. Kansas State -5.5 | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 25 h 48 m | Show | |
Kansas State -5.5 2.2* bonus
Kansas State is an old school football team. They win and cover when they are able to run the ball and stop the run. I know this is a huge public favorite, but I looked back and since 2009 Kansas State is 62.7% ATS when the majority of the public is backing them. I just don't see how Michigan can score points in this game they were 112th in ypc rushing offense this year and they'll have an inexperienced QB starting over Devin Gardner. For Kansas State's offense they should be able to run the ball because Michigan struggles against mobile QB's and Daniel Sams has been one of the best in the country for a rushing offense that again has been great. I expect Kansas State to win this game by more than a TD because they are going to be able to run the ball effectively and when you really look at it their offense can also pass the ball since they got their two receiving threats (Locket and Thompson) back so it's not like Michigan can just sell out on the run. |
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12-28-13 | Miami (Florida) +4.5 v. Louisville | Top | 9-36 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
Miami +4.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
If we are talking about strength of schedule Miami has played a far more challenging schedule on the year. In the end what really made me select this game was the match up for Louisville who really has not played that well this year at times against weak competition. Miami will be traveling 500 miles less than Louisville and they too will have a senior QB in Stephen Morris and a rushing game that even without Duke Johnson as they finished 28th in QB rating and 31st in rushing ypc. You could say with those stats that Miami could beat you both ways. Now when you look at Louisville they have been absolutely great on defense, but this is the best offense they have faced since Central Florida beat them and Miami is probably a little bit more balanced and better. Nobody else was even close as they only faced 1 team in the top 70 in rushing yards per carry with Central Florida ranking 64th. They faced 3 teams in the top 50 in QB rating and they lost the game to Central Florida and only won by a TD to both Cinci and Houston. Now Miami has weaknesses in their passing defense, but I think they will be able to match Louisville point for point and in the end there is just too much value on Miami who will be playing in their home state. |
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12-27-13 | Syracuse +4.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
Syracuse +4 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD
Syracuse lost this game at Minnesota last year, but mostly due to being -4 in turnover margin and they still only lost by 7 on the road. This game will be played on neutral field in Texas. Revenge is definitely a factor, but I think we are also getting some nice value here because the public has pounded Minnesota and one could only think why.... Syracuse lost to Penn State and Northwestern to open the season while Minnesota beat both those teams. Syracuse was expected to struggle especially early in the season with a completely new coaching staff and a new QB, but they have turned their season around nicely. When looking at this game it's all about the running games. Minnesota is 6th with a run play % at 67% while Syracuse is 39th with a 56.3%. I like the 4 points because it's hard to see Minnesota blowing any one out with the style of football they play. A deeper look at what each team does when they win and when they lose directly ties that success to running the football and stopping the run. So I took a deeper look at each team's rushing offense and defenses. Lets start with the running defenses. Minnesota allowed over 5ypc to 4 of their last 5 opponents and ranked 90th. Syracuse has only faced one opponent outside the top 60 in run defense and they won that game 24-10. Minnesota did play plenty of top rushing attacks, but their non-conference schedule was against some bad Mountain West teams while Syracuse scheduled the Big 10. Syracuse averages 5.25 ypc in their wins vs. 3.82 in their losses and they have two capable RB in Gulley who is back and Smith. The x-factor is their QB Terrel Hunt who averaged nearly 5 ypc and is a very under rated thrower from what I saw in the Boston College game. Syracuse should be able to run the ball here considering they ranked 45th doing so against 9 top 50 run defenses who on average ranked 40th. I can not say the same for Minnesota. When Minnesota has the ball they are far more 1 dimenstional than Syracuse and Syracuse on the surface has better stats stopping the run. They held Penn State at home to 1.5 ypc this year while Minnesota held them to 5.3 ypc. I throw the Northwestern common game out because Minnesota did not have to face them early in the year with a healthy Kain Colter who missed that game against Minnesota. Syracuse also stopped this same rushing attack in Minnesota a year ago holding them to 2.6 ypc. Syracuse should be able to do the same when they know what is coming and Minnesota can't win when they can't run. Minnesota's 54th ranked rushing game played an average 60th ranked rushing defense with only 5 in the top 40 in run defense like Syracuse. They went 1-4 in those 5 games. Turnovers are also a big issues for these two teams and neither one really has a considerable advantage as Minnesota is +9 in wins and -6 in losses while Syracuse is +8 in wins and -6 in losses. I will say this though Syracuse takes more chances they are +16 in tackles for loss and +14 in sacks compared with Minnesota who is +1 and -6. Those are the type of plays that cause turnovers. Syracuse is also better in third down defense. Overall though I think Terrel Hunt at QB for Syracuse is the difference maker that gets Syracuse the upset here today. |
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12-27-13 | Marshall v. Maryland +125 | 31-20 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
Maryland +125 3.5* Early Bird Special
This game will be played in Annapolis Maryland so big advantage to the Terps here even though Marshall is not far away either. Before we look into the stats I like to look into strength of schedule and conference strength of schedule. One thing we are seeing early in the bowls is the fact that the non major bowl conferences are not as strong as in years past. Marshall is ranked 98th in SOS with their toughest game being Virginia Tech on the road an 8 point loss while Maryland won at Virginia Tech late in the year. Maryland is 66th in strength of schedule but they play in a major conference and had to face the likes of Clemson and Florida State. Meanwhile Conference USA went 9-54 vs. the top 75 teams this season. Looking at this Maryland team you are going to see a ton of injuries and an inconsistent offense with a defense that's on the field for too long. However, down the stretch Randy Edsall changed his game plan to a run first approaching running the ball 5% more and it produced 2 wins in the final 3 games. In fact when Maryland runs for more than 100 yards they are 7-0 this year. Marshall has issues stopping the run and are under sized up front making it difficult to beat teams like Maryland. Marshall faced 3 of the worst running teams this year ranked 121, 123 and 125th in ypc which have skewed their stats, but they still allowed 6 teams to run for 184+ and 5 to average over 5 ypc. Maryland has a very similar offense to what Rice ran and gave Marshall's over rated defense issues in the CUSA championship game. They have a very athletic QB in CJ Brown who is the do all in this game. Brown will run the ball and his RB will have a big game too. When Maryland is on defense they'll need to get a pass rush because Rakeem Cato is a very under rated QB and decision maker, but when he's under pressure he's just not the same. Maryland is athletic and talented in the front 7 and probably the strength of this team which makes this a very bad match up for them. Maryland is 11th in sack % and their 3-4 defense will give Marshall issues as they are very sound on 3rd down and in the red zone. I think Maryland gets the early lead with their running game and dominate time of possession which will only make it harder for Marshall to move the ball. |
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12-26-13 | Utah State +1 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 25 h 1 m | Show |
Utah State pk 5.5* NCAAF POD
We spoke in depth about the MAC and their struggles vs top teams and just plainly they are not very good. The Mountain West plays against the PAC 12 which is the #2 conference behind SEC, and Utah State played 2 teams out of that conference losing both games by less than a TD combined. Northern Illinois played Iowa out of the Big Ten and then ran through their cup cake schedule in the MAC before facing an actual defense in the championship game and their defense was exposed. Northern Illinois defense is a real weakness and Utah State is balanced on offense and defense, but the big key here is Utah State's strength in run defense vs. Northern Illinois rushing offense which ranked 4th, so lets take you through that, but before we do it's worth noting that the Mac faced off against the Mountain West conference and were favorites, but Buffalo was flat out dominated by San Diego State. Northern Illinois ranked 4th in rushing 16th in run play % making it easy for any defense to come up with a game plan to defeat them. Stop the run, which is something Utah State is ranked 10th in yards allowed and 3rd in yards per carry allowed. Northern Illinois schedule makes it no surprise why they were so good running the ball, but Jordan Lynch still deserves credit, but in the big game of the year he made mistakes throwing the ball. Northern Illinois faced 1 top 50 rushing defense, and they faced 5 that were ranked 112th or worse. Iowa only won 30-27, but Iowa lacks offensive balance and playmakers which is something Utah State has more of even without their star QB Chuckie Keeton. Utah State should be able to contain Lynch with star LB Jake Doughty and Zach Vigil. This rushing defense was legit as they did not allow a single rushing offense over 3.75 ypc and they faced a ton of talented running games with 5 in the top 30 and 8 in the top 50 in rushing ypc. Opponents had only 8 rushing touchdowns and it's no surprise that their red zone defense and third down defense were just flat out dominant allowing 32% and 41% in the red zone for TD percentage. This rushing defense faced 3 top 30 rushing offenses from a ypc perspective in their last 3 games and they held them to 1.12 ypc, 0.97 ypc and 1.60 ypc. That's just dominant and we saw against Bowling Green that Jordan Lynch could not throw and beat a solid pass defense which Utah State also has. Utah State ranked 22nd in opposing QB rating, 21st in opposing QB pass completion %, 24th in sack % and 41st in yards per attempt. The offenses are a wash statistically which should surprise you considering the defenses that you face in the MAC which to me means Utah State has the better offense and we already know they have the better defense. Utah State is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 non conference games while Northern Illinois is 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games while this game will be held in San Diego which is much closer for Utah State. |
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12-26-13 | Pittsburgh +5 v. Bowling Green | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 42 m | Show | |
[b]Pittsburgh +5 3.3* Play[/b]
Bowling Green peaked when they won the MAC Championship for the first time in 21 years and their head coach Dave Clawson decided to move onto the Wake Forest job as their special teams coach takes over in the interim with no real head coaching experience. That's huge for a team going bowling coming off a conference championship, and Bowling Green is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games and they have 7 straight losses to major conference teams including Indiana 42-10 and Miss State 20-21 this year. The MAC is over rated and we saw it first hand with Bowling Green dominating Northern Illinois who went undefeated. The MAC was 1-16 this year vs. top 40 teams and just 6-47 vs. the top 75 teams. They face a Pitt team ranked 51st and the match up really intrigues me and I think we catch a ton of value here at +5. Pittsburgh had another 6-6 team, but they have their head coach and they are gaining traction. A 7-6 season would be great for the program since they moved to the ACC. The ACC had the 5th toughest schedule among conferences while the MAC was last and is already 0-2 SU and ATS in bowl games this season as both Buffalo and Ohio got waxed in their bowl games. Pitt came up with some big wins this year beating Syracuse on the road which is not easy to do and they also beat Duke and Notre Dame so it's not like Pitt is completely helpless. They also have the best players on offense and defense in DT Aaron Donald who won several awards along with WR Devin Street. Bowling Grene is known mostly for their defense, but they have had a balanced attack on offense, but a closer look and you can see why. Their offense faced just 1 opponent that was top 60 in both passing and rushing yards allowed and they put up 20 points, Pitt will be the 2nd. I think Bowling Green will have some issues on defense stopping the physical runners of Pitt who did not have a lot of success this year, but look for Tom Savage to open this game up early with his arm connecting with Devin Street and the all American freshmen Tyler Boyd. |
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12-24-13 | Oregon State -3 v. Boise State | Top | 38-23 | Win | 100 | 72 h 50 m | Show |
Oregon State -3 5.5* NCAAF POD
Before you dive too deep into stats you have to have an appreciation for each team's schedule and the one thing we noticed right off the bat was just how much better the Pac 12 was compared with the Mountain West. That was not always true in years past, but the Pac 12 was definitely an elite conference in 2013. Oregon State's strength of schedule was ranked 14th compared to Boise who was ranked 79th. The PAC 12 went 10-0 vs. the Mountain West in the regular season and USC dominated the MWC Champion Fresno State in their bowl game winning 45-20. Washington State had a 45-30 lead over Colorado State with 4 minutes to play before they fumbled multiple times to lose in regulation as the only loss the Pac 12 has had vs. the Mountain West. This is the first reason I really like Oregon State. The next reason has to do with the coaching change going on with Boise State as Chris Peterson finally moved on and took the Washington job. Of all the teams to lose their coach, Boise would be the one team I would say would be impacted by it the most. Then you look at the news and they already sent their starting QB home from the bowl for violating team rules. You can guess what that means.... Boise is enjoying this as a vacation where I think Oregon State has the better coach and control over their players. Oregon State lost their last 5 games of the season so they are hungry to go off on a high note especially with a senior laden team led by their QB Sean Mannion. They faced 5 top 50 pass defenses down the stretch and 3 were in the top 20. I was not surprised that they struggled down the stretch which leads me to my 3rd major reason why Oregon State will win this game. Oregon State is ranked 3rd in the nation with a passing play % of 65% so to beat them you have to be able to stop the pass which is evident by their struggles down the stretch vs. top passing defenses of the PAC 12. Boise is not very good at stopping the pass and Sean Mannion feasted on his other opponents this year with 29 TD's and only 4 INT if you were not ranked in the top 50 in pass defense. He has a serious weapon in Brandin Cooks who was the nation's best WR winning the Fred Biletnikoff Award. Boise ranked 77th in opposing QB rating, 103rd in completion % defense and 91st in yards allowed. On the flip side Oregon State's pass defense has been great all year coming up with a 115 QB rating allowed in road games. with 15 interceptions and Boise lost when they couldn't pass having a QB rating that was 61 points less in their losses. |
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12-23-13 | Ohio +14 v. East Carolina | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -106 | 63 h 12 m | Show |
Ohio +14.5 -115 4.5* NCAAF POD; Ohio +460 1* bonus
I don't see why Ohio can not win this game and the value is there at +460 for sure. Ohio is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Conference USA and they beat both North Texas and Marshall this year who were two of the best in the conference. East Carolina is now 6-18 ATS in their last 24 vs. a winning team and their 4 game winning streak that gave them momentum into the Marshall game that they lost 28-59 was agaainst the worst of the CUSA conference. The 4 wins came against a combined 7-41 team record from their opponents. East Carolina's offense was not as good as it was in years past being far too one dimensional ranking 102nd in rushing yards and 10th in passing and go up against Ohio's 29th ranked passing defense that held Rakeem Cato to 1 TD and 1 INT. What I like most about this game is East Carolina probably is not too pumped to be here. When you look at their year they almost went 3-0 against the ACC, but lost 10-15 against Virginia Tech. Playing Ohio in the Beef O Brady bowl is nothing glamorous when they thought they were headed to the CUSA Championship and then possibly the Liberty Bowl to face an SEC team. Now Ohio had a very up and down year, but they were consistent as far as what type of teams they struggled against. Their 5 losses came because their offense struggled. Ohio is a team that can be effective running the ball against good run defense, but when they can't pass they are in serious trouble. All 5 losses came against very good secondaries as Kent State was 27th vs. the pass, Bowling Green 4th, Buffalo 38th, Central Mich 20th, and Louisville 8th. East Carolina's pass defense was exposed down the stretch. They ranked 90th in passing yards allowed and played the following opponents ranking 86, 70, 35, 83, 108, 112, 117, 121, 77, 91, 19. Not a lot of capable passers and Ohio's 5th year senior Tyler Tettleton has a major chip on his shoulder and is a very good QB. |
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12-21-13 | UL-Lafayette +3 v. Tulane | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 71 h 22 m | Show |
UL Lafayette +3 -115 5.5* NCAAF POD
I'm grabbing this now before it goes to a pk or even Lafayette as a favorite if you have +125 at your book play the money line. The spread is off in some places for the uncertainty of Terrance Broadway, but he took snaps on Wednesday and threw the ball 50 times before Mark Hudspeth closed practice. These are two local teams that will get to play in the New Orleans bowl and I'm backing the team that is making their third straight trip in Lafayette who have covered as 6 point favorites and 6 point under dogs winning both games. We get value here because Lafayette down the stretch struggled losing 2 games straight and I believe that if they wanted to they could have won those games. Mark Hudspeth had some interesting comments and I even faded this team at South Alabama in their last game. They had no incentive in that game other than an outright Sun Belt championship which is now shared, but they believe they won which is all that matters. They won @ Arkansas State 23-7 and Hudspeth is using that as motivation for this bowl game, because many are talking about how they struggled down the stretch, but again I'm not worried. I believe Lafayette is the far superior team here and should dominate against a Tulane team that has literally no offense. Tulane has been great on defense, but I think they will struggle against a top tier offense like Lafayette on turf with time to prepare. Lafayette is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 following a loss and 17-7 ATS in their last 24 on turf and their last 21 on turf have gone over 15-5-1. Tulane is 118th in offense, 106th in pass and 103rd in rushing and failed to crack 200 yards in 2 of their last 3 games. Lafayette has Alonzo Harris and Elijah McGuire out of the backfield who combined for over 1600 yards. Tulane will have their hands full and expect to see them pass to open up the run early in this game whether it's Broadway or Brooks Haack. Either way I expect to see both and I expect Lafayette to win. |
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12-21-13 | Buffalo v. San Diego State +1 | 24-49 | Win | 100 | 68 h 41 m | Show | |
[b]San Diego St +1 3.3* Showdown[/b]
Everyone is talking about the weather like San Diego State can't play in the cold and Buffalo can. However, diving into the stats more I see a Buffalo team that really struggled whenever they stepped up in competition. Their schedule was super easy as they faced the 5 worst teams in the MAC that combined for a 4-44 record while only facing 2 of the top 4 which they lost both in dominating fashion. Buffalo have some stars including Khalil Mack who is going to play at the next level, but San Diego State is just a better overall team. San Diego State is very good at stopping the run ranking 23rd in yards allowed and yards per carry. Buffalo feasted on bad run defenses. They beat Uconn ranked 22nd vs. the run, but lets be honest until the end of the year Uconn was the worst team in the league. The other 6 wins came against an average 104th ranked run defense. With Buffalo everything starts with being able to run the ball to set up the pass. They run the ball 56% of the time and they averaged 4.94 ypc in their wins and 1.99 in their losses. San Diego State can stop the run which transitions well in the cold weather. Buffalo on the other hand was only ranked 59th vs. the run and San Diego State has a quality back in Adam Muema. As good as Buffalo's defense was specifically in the red zone another look proves they just feasted on bad competition. Whenever they had to step up against a decent offense they were not able to perform and that's what San Diego State has going for them. The weather won't be too bad at 35 degrees and this will be on the blue turf a field San Diego State is very familiar with they actually shocked Boise here last year as a +16 under dog. San Diego State is a very good road team and their defense will benefit going up against a more traditional offense. Considering they play in the MAC where there are about 5 different offenses it gets very challenging for any team to play good defense, but San Diego State has. I'm taking the points with a team that is better on both sides of the ball. |
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12-21-13 | Colorado State v. Washington State -4 | 48-45 | Loss | -110 | 64 h 40 m | Show | |
Don't miss out on our bowl package for only $199 as we wrap up another profitable college season. I'm a 2x NCAAF Season champion 09 & 2011 and look to have a great run in the bowl champions
******FREE PICK - TAKE WASH ST -4 1.1* FREE PLAY ******* Most teams out of the Pac 12 would not be excited to be going to this bowl game, but Washington State has not been in a while and has to be pumped. Washington State is a bit under rated here as they have had arguably the toughest schedule playing 5 teams that finished in the top 25 in BCS including 4 in the top 14 which included Auburn who they had on the ropes to open the season. Washington State is going to make no secret about their goal which is passing the ball. Colorado State is just dreadful at stopping it ranked 99th in opp QB rating, 97th in completion % defense and 100th in yards/attempt. Colorado State's only shot is to force turnovers which they didn't do a good job of this year. On the flip side Colorado State on paper has just as much of an advantage with Kapri Bibbs rushing for 28 TD's and a 6.19 ypc going up against Washington State's 84th ranked defense. However, Colorado State only faced two top 75 teams lost both. The other 9 were ranked on average 105th vs. the run. Could it get any easier for a rushing offense? Washington State is also better facing 6 in the top 50 in rushing offense. With some time to prepare they should be able to stop the run with their aggressive front 7. Washington State also forces a ton of turnovers 27 on the season. |
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12-14-13 | Army v. Navy -12 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
[b]Navy -12 4.4* NCAAF POD / 2.75* Teaser Navy -6 & Over 45[/b]
Army has had a rough year and their QB Angel Santiago has not been effective with 3.4 ypc taking over for a 4 year starter in Trent Steelman who was in tears last year when he fumbled away Army's chance at the commander in chief trophy. Army lost to Air Force while Navy won so the trophy and the motivation is clearly on Navy's side. Even though Army will always be up for this game I think Navy is just so much better this year. Navy's offense has clicked with Keenan Reynolds back after he took the game's MVP a year ago as a freshmen. Reynolds has improved drastically nearly doubling his rushing yards and scoring 16 more TD's. He's led an offense that is converting on 3rd down 12% more of the time and in the red zone 14% more of the time. This offense also does not turn the ball over with 8 lost all year and have a +9 turnover margin. Army's defense has faced 4 teams that runt he ball significantly more than they pass and they allowed the following point totals, 34, 48, 25, and 42 with the following run defense stats, 5.79, 7.80, 5.71, and 7.46 to Air Force. Navy should have no problem running all over Army and putting up 30+ points in this game and I actually see them getting close to 40, because this game is going to be all about TD's especially in the snow. Army on the other side will go up against Navy's defense that has been inconsistent and I think far worse than what the stats say. However, Navy is better at making adjustments and they have more talent. Navy can stop the triple option better holding Air Force to 4.05 ypc. Although that game was at home. However, I do like the over in this game as well because of the weather, but also because Navy's defense is really weak against the run and they are as bad as they have ever been on 3rd down defense and in the red zone they are just awful at stopping teams. Both teams are going to go for it a ton on 4th down and we will see no field goal attempts in this one. navy has only faced two teams that run the ball first as their main strategy. We mentioned Air Force, but they also faced Toledo who averaged 6.98 ypc against them. Despite that fact they still allowed 5 teams to rush for more than 200 yards this year. Still at the end of the day I like them -12 because of what is on the line and because of how their offense played down the stretch along with Army's inability to stop anyone on defense. I mean Temple scored 33 on them. |
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12-07-13 | Utah State +130 v. Fresno State | 17-24 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
Utah State +130 3* Late Night Fix
I don't see how Fresno State can mentally prepare for this game after they just had their dreams crashed last week in embarassing fashion giving up 62 points to San Jose State. Now normally you could see a team rebounding in a conference title game, but Fresno is due for a rude awakening. For the first time they will face a defense that's legit. They've faced 1 top 75 pass defense in UNLV, but UNLV was ranked 107th vs. the run. They have faced a trio of top 25 run defenses but none of which were ranked in the top 75 in pass defense. Utah State is ranked 3rd against the run and 15th in opposing QB rating. How good is Utah State's defense well they did allow 336 yards to David Fales of San Jose State on the road, but he threw 0 TD and had 3 interceptions and they held them to just 10 points 52 less than Fresno State. Utah State's defense has allowed just 7 TD and has 13 INT in conference play and they are dominant in the red zone allowing just 37% conversions. Now Fresno State will be able to move the ball, but so will Utah State. Utah State has a great running game and it took a while but Darrell Garretson is coming around since taking over for Chuckie Keeton early in the year. Over his last 4 games he's got 7 TD and 2 interceptions. Fresno has allowed a 168 QB rating over their last 4 games and they have allowed 4.44 ypc over that period too. When you can't stop the pass it opens things up for the run and Utah State should be able to take advantage. Fresno State is just mentally drained at this spot they had a big pay day coming for a BCS bowl game of 8 million dollars and now they are 13-37-2 in their last 52 ATS following a SU loss. |
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12-07-13 | Ohio State v. Michigan State +6 | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 22 h 6 m | Show | |
Michigan St +6 2.2* play
Michigan State is flat out dominant on defense no matter what way you spin it. People talk about their schedule, but this team is #1 in yards allowed #1 in yards/play, #1 in rushing yards allowed, rushing ypc. They are also #1 in opposing QB rating, #1 in opposing yards per passing attempt, and 4th in completion %. They are holding opponents 1.5 yards less per play under their season average so they are legit. Ohio State needs to establish the run early, but I think they will struggle even with what they are doing with Hyde and Miller. Michigan State has the corners that can match up 1 on 1 in press coverage and stack the box. The two times that Ohio State faced top defenses (Iowa and Wisconsin) they were at home. This game is on a neutral field against a defense that is better than both Iowa/Wisconsin. I think Ohio State will get their points, but... Don't sleep on this Michigan State offense. I believe they can beat you with both the pass and run as Jeremy Langford has 7 straight 100+ yard rushing games. Connor Cook is very capable and his receivers have gotten drastically better since the beginning of the year. He has 17 TD's to only 4 interceptions behind an offensive line that's 15th in the country in sack % allowed. Ohio State's secondary is weak and when they can't get to the QB they really struggle defensively down field. This is where Michigan State is going to shock people I feel. People only think of this Spartans team as a defensive team, but the offense really has not been as bad as the stats indicate. When you have a defense that is that good you don't have to take chances. However, in the Big Ten Championship you can especially when all the pressure is on Ohio State. Another X-factor is punter Mike Sadler who will certainly pin Ohio State deep in their territory like he has done all year long. |
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12-07-13 | Stanford v. Arizona State UNDER 56.5 | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 22 h 36 m | Show | |
Stanford/Arizona St U56 3.3* play (7:45pm et)
Two months ago Stanford dominated Arizona State as Stanford at home was just able to dominate at the point attack and was up 39-7 at one point before holding on to win 42-28. First of all it's never easy beating a team twice and I initially leaned towards Arizona State to win this game and cover the 3 points, but I just think in the end Stanford will wear out the smaller front 7 of Arizona State. I do see Arizona State being more competitive in this game and probably having the early lead. Stanford just is not nearly as good on the road on offense and that should bring this total down as Arizona State will make necessary adjustments to stop Stanford's running game. Stanford never scored more than 21 points in their conference road games and only managed 34 at Army. I see a conservative game to start from Stanford which will relax Arizona State a bit. Even if Arizona State tries to go we have seen Stanford's defense dominate against the best fast paced speed teams in the country and I really don't think Todd Graham is going to put his QB at that risk as their offensive line is not good enough to hold up. Stanford is 38-18-1 in their last 57 games following an ATS loss and the first games total was at 52. With this game being a bigger game, winner going to the Rose Bowl and both defenses being able to prepare after already facing the opposing offense expect a lower scoring game yet we get 4 extra points. |
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12-07-13 | Missouri -1 v. Auburn | Top | 42-59 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
[b]Missouri -1 +102 5.5* NCAAF POD[/b]
I'm taking the Tigers in the SEC Championship.. What does Auburn have left at this point? They just beat their most hated rival in emotional fashion. I think this Auburn team has been very lucky at points and Nick Saban handed them that game with some questionable coaching decisions and 4 missed field goals. Missouri has to feel like they are getting no respect for the lack of media attention and that just fuels them and fits in with their season long mantra. Nobody thought this Missouri team belonged last year, but very quietly Gary Pinkel has his team in contention to get to Pasadena. Pinkel has to remember a similar situation 6 years ago ranked #1 losing in the Big 12 Championship to Oklahoma. Now he has a second chance at something truly special. There will not be a lack of preparation in this spot. Who is Missouri? I said it last week after week this team is completely balanced and really does not have a weakness. Their offense is balanced and as explosive as any offense is with Henry Josey at RB averaging well over 6 ypc, James Franklin an accurate mistake free QB, and the big receivers in a spread offense that's going to be a nightmare for Auburn's over rated defense. Auburn struggled vs. Georgia and A&M both who have balanced offenses. Now they found a way to win those games, but lets be honest they were extremely lucky that Manziel missed 2 possessions due to an injury and they won on a miracle play vs. Georgia. Missouri beat both of those teams, has just as good of an offense and a far better defense. Why Is Missouri better? Let's look at conference averages. In conference play Auburn has allowed 4.7 ypc while Missouri has allowed 3.53. In conference play Missouri has allowed a 121 QB rating while Auburn has allowed 137. This is simply a miserable match up for Auburn because Missouri has the athleticism and speed to turn Nick Marshall into a pocket passer and force him to make mistakes which I think will happen as Missouri has the longest active streak of forcing at least 1 turnover in a game. Auburn is -1 turnover margin in conference play while Missouri is +11. Auburn's offense is more one dimensional than people will admit. Nick Marshall has had a nice season and has made plays with arms when he's had to but now he faces the best corner in the SEC in E.J. Gaines who just got done shutting down All American Mike Evans to 4 receptions for 8 yards. Sammy Coates is like the only receiving weapon for Auburn another reason why I feel this is just a bad match up for Auburn. Auburn will get their yards, but Missouri will force the turnovers and be more explosive on offense and they'll come up with what I think will be a 7+ point win. |
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12-07-13 | Marshall v. Rice +7 | 24-41 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
Rice +7 3.3* play (12pm start)
This line has jumped to +7 points and I'm going to jump on the value here as Rice has been very solid all year long and Marshall comes off a win at home against East Carolina that was just a bit deceiving because East Carolina played their worst game turning the ball over 3 times and allowing Marshall to convert on 10 of their 14 3rd downs. Marshall on the road is not the same team and they will have a tougher time on the road here with Rice allowing just 28.95 % on third down. This is a veteran Rice team with a ton of upper classmen. Rice is also +8 in turnover margin at home compared with Marshall who is -7 on the road. Rice will lean on Charles Ross at RB to run the ball and Marshall has shown signs at times this year of trouble stopping the run. as 5 teams rushed for 184+ yards on them. Even East Carolina who ranked 85th in rushing ypc had 5.14 ypc last week. Rice is very efficient converting on 71% of their red zone attempts into TD's while Marshall in 6 road games has allowed 30 attempts and 63% attempts. Compare that with Rice who has allowed only 9 red zone attempts at home this season. They have only allowed 8 total TD's at home this season and Marshall's passing offense will be tested. Only Houston has thrown for over 300 yards and only Johny Manziel has completed over 58.3% of his passes against this under rated Rice defense. |
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12-07-13 | Oklahoma +10.5 v. Oklahoma State | 33-24 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
[b]Oklahoma +10 4.4* Big 12 GOW[/b]
Both teams are off a bye, but this is a huge rivalry game one that Oklahoma has lost 2 out of the last 3 years. I think they will put more in this game then their bowl game. Meanwhile Oklahoma State could be suffering from a hang over after defeating Baylor in dominating fashion. More than anything I think this line is inflated for the way Baylor beat up on Oklahoma and how Oklahoma State beat up on Baylor. Both teams are going to try to establish the run and Oklahoma is very good at doing so and dominating at time of possession. Oklahoma will almost certainly own time of possession as Oklahoma State is the worst in the Big 12 while Oklahoma is among the best with over a 5 minute advantage. Can Oklahoma run on Oklahoma State? I think the answer is yes they are really clicking right now with 6.1 ypc in their last 3 games and rank 12th in the country. Oklahoma State this season has been good, but a lot of their struggles have been hidden by the fact that they have been able to force so many turnovers. They allowed 202 yards to a Kansas team that ranks 100th in rushing ypc. Oklahoma State also got lucky when they faced Baylor who was banged up on offense at RB. This will be the very best rushing team they will face all season long. Oklahoma won't turn the ball over which is what Oklahoma State needs to blow a team out. Oklahoma State is not nearly as lethal on offense as the stats suggest and they're only converting 40% on third down but they are +16 in turnover margin, but Oklahoma has only turned it over 14 times all year and this should be a game that is decided by a TD or less either way. |
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12-06-13 | Bowling Green +4 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 47-27 | Win | 100 | 3 h 43 m | Show |
[b]Bowling Green +3.5 -115 4.5* NCAAF POD[/b]
The wrong team is favorited in this match up and I'm taking the points with great value. Northern Illinois is a tremendous team, but they are flawed and one dimensional. They have significant issues stopping the pass and have struggled to stop the run at times as well. Their defense was much stronger last year and now they have to face Bowling Green that is just a much more complete team. Don't buy into all the hype on one player. Football is a team sport and Bowling Green statistically does not have many weaknesses. They are top 10 in defense in the country and top 30 in offense without being ranked out side the top 40 in rushing or passing offense/defense as well as scoring or rushing defense. Northern Illinois has only played 1 team inside the top 50 in rushing defense and the majority of their opponents rank 95th or worse vs. the run. Lynch won't be able to pass the ball in this game and Bowling Green can reliever their linebackers to concentrate 100% on the run which will be the difference. I think Bowling Green is far too dominant on this side of the ball and they've gotten better as the year has gone on. They are better on third down offensively and defensively and the same goes in the red zone where they have only allowed 10 possessions in their red zone in conference play. Northern Illinois is more than double that. Matt Johnson and his offense will find time with a balanced attack, dominate the time of possession while Jordan Lynch will struggle to find his way. |
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12-05-13 | Louisville -3 v. Cincinnati | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
[b]Louisville -3 3.3* play[/b]
I'm laying the road chalk in this game, I think both teams are mirror images of each other, but Lousiville has the better QB. Both teams have balanced attacks running and passing 50% of the time. Both teams are average at running the ball to below average although Louisville is a bit better and same goes in run defense as both teams are stout at stopping the run with Louisville being a little better. That means that this game is going to be put on the arm of these QB's and turnovers will play a critical role in the outcome. Cinci is -5 in turnover margin on the year and -4 in their last 3 games while Louisville is +15 so expect turnovers to be the reason why Louisville win it or lose it. I'll also take Bridgewater over Kay who has faced some awful competition this year. He has not faced a single team ranked in the top 50 in opposing QB rating defense while at least Bridgewater played UCF and had a good game. He's passing for a higher %, more yards per attempt and has a 25 TD to 3 INT ratio compared with Kay who is 22/9. The biggest difference is Bridgewater does not get rattled on the road and I think he'll be able to quiet this crowd very early on. Who has the better pass defense? It's really hard to say because neither of them have been truly tested, but Lousiville has more talent and has been more consistent. The two times Cincinnati faced a capable QB or passing game was against SMU who passed for 403 yards 2 TD and 0 INT and Illnois who passed for 312 yards and 4 TD and 0 INT. Louisville's pass defense is stacked and solid all year allowing a 98 QB rating in conference play which is 19 pts better than Cincinnati against the same opponents. They're allowing just 50.8% completions 5.8 yards per attempt and have allowed only 8 TD to 14 INT. At the end of the day this is going to be a tight game, but I think Louisville can pull it off as I think Cinci has had the much easier schedule and has been far less dominating. |