Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-24-21 | Raptors v. Knicks UNDER 216.5 | 103-120 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The New York Knicks have been red hot from the floor of late. New York is only a mediocre offensive team though, and I think they will regress to the mean. The Knicks are averaging 1.21 points per possession in their last five games. On the year, they are averaging 1.099 points per possession. Toronto will be without Chris Boucher here, and he has been red hot of late. Boucher is tied with Pascal Siakim as their highest rated offensive player on the season. Their offense takes a big hit without him. Freddie Gillespie will get a lot of the minutes at power forward. Gillespie is one of the lowest rated offensive players on this roster, but he rates better defensively than Boucher on the season. The Knicks rate 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency for the season. They also rank as the slowest paced team in the league. This is a pretty high total for a Knicks game. An early start on a weekend helps the under in the long run as well. Take the under. |
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04-15-21 | Celtics v. Lakers UNDER 212.5 | 121-113 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 35 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Game of the Week* The first time these two teams played this year the Lakers won 96-95. Of course the Lakers had LeBron James and Anthony Davis on the floor for that game. What has changed for the Lakers without those guys? The biggest change has been their offensive efficiency has gotten much worse. The Lakers on the season are averaging 1.098 points per possession. They are averaging just 1.031 points per possession in the 14 games since LeBron went down with an injury. Their defensive efficiency has actually been slightly better in that time. Boston struggled badly on defense for much of the year, but Brad Stevens finally has this team working much harder on defense of late. The Celtics rank fifth in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last 10 games. The Lakers rank first in defensive efficiency in that span. The first game these two played was just 93.5 possessions. That is an extremely slow pace. The Celtics have slowed their tempo in recent games and the Lakers have played slower since adding Drummond. The Lakers have had 11 of their last 14 games go under this total. Four of the Celtics last six games have finished at 202 points or fewer. Take the under here. |
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04-12-21 | Lakers v. Knicks UNDER 206 | 96-111 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Lakers take on the Knicks at Madison Square Garden on Monday night. The Lakers are coming off one of their best wins of the year. They defeated the Nets as a big underdog. The fact that they did it without LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Kyle Kuzma is really impressive. The Knicks are coming off an OT win over Memphis and a tight win at home against Toronto. Both teams are in pretty good form. These two teams have been doing it with defense of late. The Lakers rank first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. The Knicks rank second. The Lakers rank 27th in offensive efficiency in the NBA in the last ten games. The Knicks rank 25th. This is a very low total in today's NBA, but it is low for a good reason. Only two of the Knicks last 9 games have gone over this low total. The Lakers have only had one game finish higher than 214 points in their last 9 contests despite playing some very good offenses in that span (Nets, Clippers, Bucks, 76ers). Take the under here. |
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04-08-21 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 224 | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 21 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* When two good teams play each other late in the NBA season, I always want to take an initial look at the under. This one is one I have to play because of the spot. Phoenix is coming off a huge win over the Jazz last night. The Suns really slowed the pace of that game down. They have shown to prefer a slow pace this year overall. The Clippers rank 26th in the NBA in tempo in their last 10 games. They also rank fifth in defensive efficiency. This team has really turned things up on the defensive end of late. Phoenix ranks 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency during that period. Both of these teams are good offensively, but with the pace I expect this to be played at they would need to shoot a very high percentage to get past the total. In a key game between two high quality teams, I'll take the under. Take the under here. |
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04-04-21 | Lakers v. Clippers UNDER 215.5 | 86-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Lakers are averaging only 1.01 points per possession without LeBron James in the lineup this year. That is drastically lower than their 1.14 points per possession with him in the lineup. The Lakers are still excellent on defense without LeBron. In fact, the Lakers rank third in the NBA in defensive efficiency allowing only 1.03 points per possession in their last seven games. The Clippers play at the third slowest pace in the NBA in their last seven games. The Clippers are also improving on the defensive end of late. They rank 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in that period. The Lakers just shot lights out from 3 point range in their win over the Kings in their last game. They are unlikely to be able to keep that up against a much more respectable defense in the Clippers. The Lakers have seen 7 of their last 8 games finish with 210 points or lower. The Clippers have seen 3 of their last 5 games finish with 199 points or lower. This is an early start on the West Coast and it is a rivalry game between division opponents. Take the under. |
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04-02-21 | Lakers v. Kings UNDER 223.5 | 115-94 | Win | 100 | 19 h 59 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Sacramento Kings beat the LA Lakers 123-120 a month ago. There were some extremely good shooting numbers on that night. Sacramento shot 60% from the floor. The Lakers shot 53% from the floor. The pace in the game was just 95.5 possessions. The two teams averaged a whopping 1.281 and 1.263 points per possession in that game. The Lakers offense has been a hot mess of late. I do realize the Kings have a weak defense and the Lakers could look a bit better here offensively. Still, this is a really high total for a Lakers game right now. The Lakers ranks second to last in the NBA in offensive efficiency since LeBron went down to an injury. They also rank fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Lakers have seen only one of their last seven games go above 210 points. Sacramento has played a bit slower of late, and their defense has been just a touch better. The Kings rank 15th in the NBA in tempo in their last seven games. This is a divisional game and divisional games have gone under the total 53% of the time from game 42 on in the regular season. I think the Lakers keep this game a bit lower scoring. Take the under. |
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03-28-21 | Suns v. Hornets UNDER 219.5 | 101-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* What do the Charlotte Hornets look like without LaMelo Ball compared to with him? The Hornets rank 12th in the NBA in tempo for the season overall. In their last four games they rank 29th (second to last) in the NBA in tempo. They have clearly slowed things down, which makes a lot of sense because Ball is great in transition and they definitely miss him in the open floor. Phoenix ranks 24th in the NBA in tempo on the season. The Suns are 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. This is a team that is capable of scoring plenty, but their defense is often underrated. Sunday has been the best "under" day in the NBA for the past decade, and it isn't even close. This is an early start time (very early for Phoenix especially), and the early starts have been good under bets through the years as well. The under is 4-0 in the Suns last 4 Sunday games. The under is 5-2 in the Hornets last 7 Sunday games. Take the under here. |
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03-21-21 | Pacers v. Heat UNDER 217.5 | 109-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Heat defense had their single worst performance of the year on Friday night against Indiana. The Pacers absolutely torched them for 20/36 from 3 point range and 137 points. Miami is 3rd in points per game allowed on the year. They are second in field goal percentage defense. The Heat are a defense first team, and I expect a bounce back performance on defense here. Miami had allowed 103 points per game or less in eight straight games before that terrible performance on Friday night! Miami's Goran Dragic is questionable with a back injury here. Dragic is one of their best offensive players and a questionable defensive player. The Heat also signed Trevor Ariza who is thought of as a solid defensive contributor. This is an early Sunday game and those have been good for the under in the past decade. Take the under. |
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03-16-21 | Jazz v. Celtics OVER 227.5 | 117-109 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Utah Jazz have been money as a road favorite this year. Why? The Jazz have the best defense in the NBA at home, but they are merely mediocre defensively on the road. Utah has allowed 1.158 points per possession in their last 10 road games (that ranks 23rd in the NBA). They are now up against a Boston offense that has been on fire of late. Boston is averaging 1.208 points per possession in their last five games. They have been shooting the ball really well from the outside. Boston's defense has been non-existent of late. Boston has allowed 1.183 points per possession in their last eight games. That is second worst in the NBA. The Jazz have a high powered offense now, and it is hard to see Utah struggling to score here. Look for both offenses to have a leg up here. The over is 5-0 in the Jazz's last 5 as a road favorite. The over is 5-1 in the Celtics last 6 home games. Take the over. |
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03-14-21 | Celtics v. Rockets UNDER 224 | 134-107 | Loss | -112 | 17 h 21 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* This Houston Rockets offense is terrible. Houston is playing without John Wall, Victor Oladipo, P.J. Tucker, Eric Gordon, and Daniel House Jr. The Rockets are averaging 0.952 points per possession in their last five games. No one else in the NBA is averaging worse than 1 point per possession in that time. Have the Rockets played great defenses during that time? Not really. We'll give them the Utah Jazz being a tough defense certainly. The other four games were against: Sacramento, Brooklyn, Cleveland, and Memphis. Three of those teams rank in the bottom eight in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Boston Celtics defense has been weak of late, but this is the worst offense they have been up against lately and it isn't even close. Boston should grab a lead here and slow things down. They do prefer to play at a slow tempo compared to the league average. Boston's offense ranks just 19th in the NBA in offensive efficiency on the road. Houston's defense has been better at home, but their offense has actually been much worse at home this year than on the road. Take the under here. |
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03-03-21 | Hornets v. Wolves OVER 233 | 135-102 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Charlotte Hornets have been playing at a much faster pace in recent games. Without Zeller and Hayward, the team has a lineup full of weak defensive players, but guys who are more than capable of getting out and running. Charlotte is 4th in the NBA in tempo in their last five contests. The Hornets are also second worst in the NBA in defensive efficiency during that period. Minnesota is playing much faster under their new head coach. The Timberwolves have shot the ball poorly in their last couple games. They should shoot it better here. In the games since he has been coach, the Timberwolves games have gone to 251, 238, 240, and 217 points in regulation. The Hornets last 5 games have finished at 242, 245, 251, 253, and 234 points. This total is high, but it isn't high enough. There should be a ton of uptempo basketball here. Take the over. |
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02-28-21 | Suns v. Wolves OVER 226 | 118-99 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Timberwolves have a new coach in Chris Finch. Finch has made it clear he wants the team to push the pace. In his first three games as coach, the Timberwolves are 3-0 to the over. They rank second in the NBA in tempo in the last three games as well. Minnesota has a bottom five defense in the NBA, so if they want to play this fast I fully expect them to continue giving up a bunch of points. In Finch's first three games, the Timberwolves games have had totals of 251, 236, and 240 points. Phoenix plays at a slower pace than Minnesota, but the Suns are number one in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last ten games. The Suns should get a ton of open looks against this terrible Minnesota defense. While the Suns offense has been great of late, their defense has been subpar in the last ten games. With the Suns efficiency and Minnesota's pace, I think this one is a high scoring contest. Take the over. |
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02-27-21 | Wolves v. Wizards OVER 235 | 112-128 | Win | 104 | 18 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Wizards rank first in the NBA in tempo. The Minnesota Timberwolves have played much faster in their first two games since new coach Chris Finch took over. He is a guy who really wants to see the team space out the floor and move quickly. Karl Anthony Towns will get plenty of chances to show himself as an offensive playmaker in this system. Washington isn't a good defensive team. The Wizards do have several very athletic players who can get to the basket or create open looks from the outside for their teammates. This Minnesota defense is a bottom five defense in the NBA. This is a really high total, but I believe this number is still too low. Take the over. |
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02-24-21 | Wolves v. Bulls OVER 227.5 | 126-133 | Win | 100 | 18 h 42 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Timberwolves have a new coach in Chris Finch. Finch has been around the NBA quite a bit and everywhere he has gone he has wanted to push the tempo. In Finch's first game as head coach the Timberwolves played their contest against Milwaukee to 106 possessions (3rd fastest paced game of the year), so it was an initial sign that the faster pace is already showing up. Look for that to continue. Minnesota has a bottom 8 or 9 defense in the NBA though, and the Chicago Bulls offense has been solid with LaVine and White really playing well. Chicago has potential to put up a big number here against this Wolves defense. Chicago ranks fourth in the NBA in pace for the year overall, and I don't see them trying to slow this game down. I don't think the oddsmakers have adjusted the Minnesota total enough based on their new style of play. Take the over. |
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02-22-21 | Blazers v. Suns UNDER 230 | 100-132 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Phoenix Suns are playing at the slowest pace in the NBA in their past ten games. Portland is playing at the 23rd fastest pace, so they are playing slowly as well. This is an extremely high total for a game that should be played at a slow pace. Phoenix has been on fire from long distance. The Suns are a combined 46/85 (54.1%) from 3 point range in their last two games. This is an above average jump shooting team, but regression has to come for them from 3 point range. No team can shoot like this from 3 point range for too long. Portland also ranks 12th in the NBA in 3 point FG% defense. Portland shoots a bunch of three pointers and Phoenix ranks 3rd in the league in 3 point defense. This total is so high because their recent games have been so high. The number is inflated a bit because of those high shooting percentages. Take the under. |
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02-17-21 | Rockets v. 76ers UNDER 227.5 | 113-118 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers host the Houston Rockets tonight. This isn't the same Houston Rockets team we have seen in recent seasons. This is now a team that is extremely inefficient on offense. In fact, Houston is dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last eight games played. Philadelphia's instant offense in Shake Milton is gone for tonight's game. Milton is weak defensively and strong offensively. The players who get his minutes are an upgrade defensively and a downgrade on offense. This is an awfully high total for a game that should be played at about an average tempo, especially considering we have one team who is very inefficient on offense. Take the under. |
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02-05-21 | Wizards v. Heat UNDER 230 | 95-122 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Heat and Washington Wizards just met on Wednesday night. The final in that one was 103-100. There were 98 possessions in that game. The total here has been bet up through the day. It has gotten to a point where I have to take the under. If we assume there will be 99 possessions (1 faster than Wednesday) even if the teams average 1.15 points per possession (very good shooting) this would be under the total. One of the best under referees is the lead ref in this game. Brian Forte's games are 55% to the under in his career. Take the under. |
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01-31-21 | Clippers v. Knicks UNDER 214 | 129-115 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The LA Clippers have Paul George and Kawhi Leonard back. They were excellent in their blowout win over Orlando. Their defense was tremendous in that game. The New York Knicks are the slowest paced team in the NBA, and it isn't even close. New York is averaging 94.70 possessions per game in their last 10 contests. The second slowest in the NBA is the Denver Nuggets, but they are averaging 97.21 possessions per game. The Clippers rank 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last ten games. The Knicks rank sixth in that same statistic. The Knicks are better coached this year and they have been competitive. In 10 of the Knicks last 13 games, the total has stayed under this number. This is an early Sunday game and Sunday has easily been the best day for unders in the NBA in the past decade. Take the under. |
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01-27-21 | Nets v. Hawks UNDER 239 | 132-128 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Brooklyn Nets have actually slowed their pace of play with Harden, Irving, and Durant on the floor together. Harden dribbles it a lot and uses up the clock more than most people realize. Atlanta has also slowed their pace down and they have been better defensively of late. For the season, these two teams are 5th and 12th in terms of tempo. In their last three games only, these two teams are 17th and 22nd in tempo. If they are going to play at an average pace or slower, this is an extremely high total. Sure, there is a chance all the shots are falling and it gets past this total. Still, with this referee crew skewing to the under and a slower pace I have to back the under. Take the under here. |
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01-24-21 | Thunder v. Clippers UNDER 222 | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Sunday has been the single best day of the week to bet unders in the NBA in the past decade, and it isn't even close. Early unders have done very well in the long run. Western Conference early unders (5 pm eastern or earlier) are 6-2 to the under this season. The Clippers should have a fairly easy time with the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Clippers put up a pretty big point total against OKC in their last game, but they did make 24/25 from the free throw line in that game. The Thunder are certainly more limited without Al Horford. Also, the Thunder rank 28th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last five games. For the season overall, the Clippers are 27th in the NBA in tempo. Take the under in this one. |
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01-18-21 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 224.5 | 115-113 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors are 5-0 to the under with Draymond Green in the lineup. Draymond Green can be an offensive liability at times, especially when the Warriors only have one elite shooter around him instead of two (with Klay Thompson out this year). Green though is the team's best defender and he has really helped the Warriors on that end of the floor. The Lakers have the number one defensive efficiency rating in the NBA in their last five games. When they are engaged, the Lakers have a very athletic team that can really shut down the opposition. The Lakers should have the lead in this game late, and LA has been good at slowing the pace down when they do have the lead in the fourth quarter. Take the under here. |
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01-17-21 | Knicks v. Celtics UNDER 212.5 | 105-75 | Win | 101 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics are still without Jayson Tatum. Tatum had been an offensive machine early this year, and he is a huge loss on that end of the floor. Tristan Thompson should get a bunch of minutes in the paint here with the Celtics very shorthanded in the frontcourt. Thompson is a really good defender and he should slow the Knicks down inside. Thompson isn't very good offensively and him playing more is a positive for the under. Which NBA team is playing at the slowest pace in the last five games? The Knicks and it isn't very close. They are averaging only 93 possessions per contest in that time. Boston put up a big point total against Orlando, but the Magic rank second worst in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last five games. The Magic also play pretty quickly. This is an early start on Sunday, and these early games on Sunday have been very good under bets in the past decade. Take the under. |
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01-11-21 | Grizzlies v. Cavs UNDER 217.5 | 101-91 | Win | 100 | 18 h 40 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Cavs and Memphis Grizzlies played a 94-90 game on January 7th, and this total is simply too high given how many play makers are out of the lineup for both teams. It should come as no surprise that without Ja Morant the Memphis Grizzlies have played far slower on offense. In their last four games, Memphis ranks as the 4th slowest team in the NBA. In the Cavs last four games, they have been the single slowest paced team in the NBA. This projects as a sloppy game played at a slow pace, and this line is quite a bit too high. Take the under. |
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01-10-21 | Bulls v. Clippers UNDER 226.5 | 127-130 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bulls take on the LA Clippers at Staples Center in a early tipoff on Sunday afternoon. The under is 32-16 in Clippers home games that start at 5 pm eastern or earlier. The under has done very well in Sunday early games across the NBA in recent years overall. The Clippers are playing at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA thus far this season. Chicago has been shooting lights out, but the Clippers do have some better guys to guard White and Lavine than most teams do. I would expect their shots to be contested better in this contest. I'll take the under with this early game with a high total. Take the under. |
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01-03-21 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 217.5 | 112-107 | Loss | -102 | 20 h 45 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The two slowest paced teams in the NBA so far this year meet in Phoenix on Sunday night. Phoenix has slowed down a lot with Chris Paul running the point. This is a team now that looks to run more halfcourt sets. The Suns are also clearly improved on the defensive end. Phoenix has been the second best defense in the NBA so far this year in six games. The LA Clippers can lock teams up on defense when they are fully engaged. I would expect the Clippers to be up for a game against a Phoenix team that has played well. The Clippers have multiple very good defenders on the perimeter to slow down the Suns outside shooters. I think it has been hard for the books to adjust to the Suns new tempo and improved defense. They have started to adjust, but they haven't adjusted enough. Phoenix hasn't played a single game that finished with more than 216 points. All but one of their games have finished at 209 points or less. Take the under here. |
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12-31-20 | Pelicans v. Thunder UNDER 215.5 | 113-80 | Win | 100 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Pelicans are a completely different team than they were a year ago. New Orleans ran and played very little defense under Alvin Gentry. They are clearly improved on defense this year. They also rank dead last in tempo so far this year in the entire league. New Orelans has been a great under team so far this year, and I'm going to ride with the under another time here. Oklahoma City hasn't played teams who play as slowly as the Pelicans so far this year. The Thunder have good defensive pieces on their roster. I would expect their offensive efficiency to be down a tick from a year ago. There is a favorable referee crew for the under in this one as well. Take the under here. |
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12-29-20 | Pelicans v. Suns UNDER 224 | 86-111 | Win | 100 | 20 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Pelicans are a different team this year. New Orleans isn't playing as fast as possible as they did under Alvin Gentry. Stan Van Gundy has this team playing in the bottom ten in the NBA in pace of play. They have been much better on defense too, and that isn't a surprise since Van Gundy considers himself a defensive guy. The Phoenix Suns are likely to play a little slower this year as well. At this stage of his career Chris Paul isn't a guy who tends to run the floor as fast as many of the point guards in the NBA. Expect Phoenix to slip some this year in terms of tempo, but they should improve on defense. They certainly have so far this year. I think this line is off based on what these teams were last year compared to now. Take the under. |
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12-27-20 | Spurs v. Pelicans UNDER 228 | 95-98 | Win | 100 | 16 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Pelicans are clearly a different team with Stan Van Gundy as their head coach as compared to Alvin Gentry. Van Gundy is more of a defensive-minded coach who isn't going to encourage running nearly as much as Gentry. New Orleans ranked fourth in the NBA in tempo last year. They rank 24th through two games. It is a small sample size, but the Pelicans are averaging more than 3 possessions less per game than last year thus far. I would expect New Orleans to improve defensively as well, and in their first two games they have done that. The Spurs and Pelicans played high scoring games last year and that has led to a high total here. I think it is too high with the Pelicans being a different team. The Spurs will likely finish in the middle of the pack in tempo again this year. San Antonio's first two games being elevated from a totals perspective has given us a good number to go under here. Sunday has easily been the best day for unders in the NBA in the long run. Take the under here. |
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12-25-20 | Warriors v. Bucks UNDER 233.5 | 99-138 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 55 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Draymond Green missed the Warriors first game and he is questionable here. Stephen Curry is excellent, but he isn't surrounded by many "scorers" or distributors on this Warriors team. They badly miss Klay Thompson. The Bucks were the best defense in the NBA last season. They do play fast, but they are good at locking teams down on defense. Christmas Day unders have been tremendous in the past decade. This makes a lot of sense to me because the players are celebrating either right before or right after the game with their families. I think the Christmas under trend is a solid one. Take the under here. |
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12-25-20 | Pelicans v. Heat UNDER 228.5 | 98-111 | Win | 100 | 43 h 29 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Last year these two teams met twice and the final scores were 214 and 203. The Heat are a good defensive team, and they typically have not let the Pelicans get into their normal extremely fast paced type of game. Christmas Day unders have been tremendous in the past decade. This makes a lot of sense to me because the players are celebrating either right before or right after the game with their families. I think the Christmas under trend is a solid one. This total is set several points too high. |
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12-23-20 | Knicks v. Pacers UNDER 212.5 | 107-121 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The New York Knicks will look like a different team under Tom Thibodeau. Does that mean they will be better? Not necessarily, but Thibodeau is trying his best to turn this into a defensive-minded team. He also wants this team to play at a slow pace to start the season out. The Knicks played very slow in the preseason and had three of their four games in the preseason finish at 193 points or lower. Indiana is a strong defensive team. They will be one of the best in the Eastern Conference on that end again this year. The Pacers also prefer to play slowly. Last year, these two teams met three times. The final total in those games was 207, 177, and 204 points. Take the under here. |
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10-11-20 | Lakers v. Heat UNDER 216.5 | 106-93 | Win | 100 | 43 h 17 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Lakers missed a chance to finish off the Miami Heat in Game 5 on Friday night. The Lakers also failed to win that game despite some red hot shooting from beyond the arc from LeBron James. James is only a mediocre 3 point shooter (he's great at everything else), but he was 6/9 from long range on Friday night. The Lakers were shooting 56% from the floor in the middle of the third quarter in game five. The game did slow down and it narrowly edged over the total because of 17 points in the last 1:52 of the contest in Game 5. Miami and Los Angeles combined to average 1.17 points per possession in Game 5, which is far above their season averages. Both teams shot the ball really well from the floor. The teams also combined to shoot a sizzling 91% from the free throw line. The 39 points from the charity stripe were key in sending the game just over the posted total. The under has been great bet in the long run in close out games in the NBA playoffs. The pace tends to slow and the defenses lock in even more. The average pace in games 4 and 5 has been 92.75 possessions. If game 6 has 93 possessions, the teams could average 1.16 and 1.15 points per possession and it still stays under this total. For the season as a whole, both of these teams averaged a tick under 1.12 points per possession. Since there is so much on the line and the shooting numbers were clearly above average in Game 5, I'm going to side with the under here in Game 6. If both teams shoot the lights out it will lose, but history is on our side and the line value is there. Take the under. |
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10-09-20 | Heat v. Lakers UNDER 217 | 111-108 | Loss | -107 | 67 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Lakers now lead the Miami Heat 3-1 in this series. The Lakers were much better defensively in game four. They were able to take away Butler's looks in the paint. Look for that to be a strategy that continues into this game to try to pack the paint as much as possible and force Butler to be a passer more often than not. Miami's defense is significantly better with Bam Adebayo on the floor. He is a good shot blocker near the rim. He also helps a lot on the defensive glass. Without him, the Lakers were crushing the Heat on the offensive boards. Adebayo isn't 100 percent, but him being on the floor is a positive for the under. The average tempo of the last three games in this series is 94 possessions. Closeout games often see a slow pace (especially if they are a tight game). If we see 94 possessions here, both teams could average 1.15 points per possession from the floor (very efficient on offense) and this one would fall just below 217 points. I think the tempo points this one to an under without a ref show or some ridiculous 3 point shooting. Those are always possible, but there is an edge here with the under with the projected pace and the Heat with their top defensive player again. Take the under. |
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10-04-20 | Lakers v. Heat UNDER 219 | 104-115 | Push | 0 | 18 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Lakers beat the Miami Heat 124-114 in Game 2. The fact that last game was so high scoring creates an opportunity for us to get a much higher posted total for this contest. The shooting numbers last game were extremely high. These teams aren't likely to shoot it as well as they did in game 2. The Lakers put up a ridiculous 1.348 points per possession. Miami put up 1.253 points per possession on Friday night. The overall playoff averages are 1.168 for the Lakers and 1.133 for the Heat. The pace was actually much slower in game two than in game one. Miami is shorthanded here, and that could certainly make their defense a bit worse, but the Lakers scoring 1.348 points per possession against this scrappy Heat defense shouldn't be expected again. Additionally, the Lakers players said at length on Saturday that the team had talked about their disappointment with their defense in their game 2 win, and that would be an area of focus on Sunday. This is the highest posted total for any matchup between these two teams this year. Take the under. |
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09-15-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers UNDER 208 | 104-89 | Win | 100 | 19 h 2 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Clippers and the Denver Nuggets are in a game seven on Tuesday night. It makes little sense that this series has gotten to a 7th game. The Clippers were in full control here and simply let this series get away from them. Game 7's have been money to the under this postseason thus far (3-0 to the under). They haven't been even close. This number has been adjusted down, so I won't make this a large play, but things tend to change quite a bit in a game 7. This is a win or go home game. There is a lot of pressure on both teams. The tempo slows down. The shooting percentages on the whole over time are lower as well in these spots. In this series already, the tempo has gradually slowed down from the first three games to the last three games. The Clippers are capable of locking down on defense when they are focused, and I would think we get a very focused Clippers defense here. The Nuggets will be looking to slow the pace of this game down. Take the under here. |
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09-10-20 | Lakers v. Rockets UNDER 220.5 | 110-100 | Win | 100 | 19 h 59 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Lakers have played a very competitive series thus far. It really stands out to me that this series has been played at such a slow tempo compared to what we might have expected. The pace has gotten slower in each game in this series thus far. Overall for the series, the average number of possessions is at only 95. In the last two games combined, the average pace is 93.75 possessions. Last game alone, the pace was 91.5 possessions. The Lakers won last game by locking things down defensively in the second half. Los Angeles is likely to show up with strong defense from the start in this one. Houston is a better defensive team this year than many realize as well. Both of these teams shoot a lot of 3 pointers. These teams are 7th and 8th in the NBA at defending beyond the arc, so there aren't as many easy looks from long range as normal when these two meet. If the game is played at 95 possessions (the series average), the average points per possession would have to exceed 1.16 points per possession to get past this posted total. With the stars on these two teams it is certainly possible, but this line is several points too high. Take the under. |
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09-02-20 | Thunder v. Rockets UNDER 219 | 102-104 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder square off in game 7 on Wednesday night. Oklahoma City changed the way this series has gone by playing Lu Dort more often. Dort is a really good defender, and he's really bad offensively. He makes his opponent work very hard to get good looks. At the same time, teams will cheat off him on the other end. Houston has shown a long history of struggling in close out games under Mike D'Antoni and with James Harden on the floor. These games are lined high for a reason- clearly the Rockets can score in bunches and could light it up from long range, but they are up against an OKC team that ranked 3rd in the NBA in 3 point field goal percentage allowed. In Houston's last 28 playoff games that are game #5 through game #7 in the series- 22 of those games have gone under the total and 6 have gone over the total. There have been quite a few poor shooting contests in those, and the tempo has generally been slower. Oklahoma City can get bogged down on offense too much. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been disappointing on the offensive end down the stretch for the Thunder. We've seen in the playoffs that the later in the series it has gotten the referees have let them play more often. That would be a big benefit to the under in this one. Take the under here. *Sharp money is moving this line down- I would play this down to 216.5. My number here was 214. Thanks and good luck.* |
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09-01-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets UNDER 219 | 78-80 | Win | 100 | 29 h 50 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* I don't really want to have to play this game since I just lost the under in game six due to some unreal shooting by Murray and Mitchell and the teams overall, but I have to in this spot. This is a spot where I have made a lot of money through the years. Game 7- everything on the line for both teams. There is a lot of pressure on each side, and the pace usually slows down a bit. On average, the shooting percentages are usually a little lower as well. In the first six games of this series- the average pace has been 93.5 possessions per game. That is the slowest pace of any playoff series so far. Both teams have just been shooting lights out. These teams both averaged 1.12 points per possession in the regular season. They are averaging 1.25 points per possession and 1.21 points per possession in this series. In game six, they combined to shoot 36/72 from 3 point range. If the teams just shot their season average (1.12)- this total would come in around 209. If both teams shoot lights out again we'll lose this play, but there are too many long term systems and angles pointing toward an under here for me to pass it up. Look for both defenses to look a little better and the pace to be slow here. Take the under. *My projection here was 213.5- so I would play this for a 4 star rating down to 217.5 and a 3 star rating at anything lower than that. Thanks and good luck.* |
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08-30-20 | Nuggets v. Jazz UNDER 220 | 119-107 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Jazz/Nuggets CASH* The Utah Jazz and Denver Nuggets play in a huge game six battle on Sunday night. The Jazz have been automatic on offense for most of this series. How good have they been? Utah is averaging a whopping 1.274 points per possession in this series. In their three regular season games against Denver, they averaged 1.051 points per possession. The pace in this series has been very slow, but the shooting numbers have been so high it hasn't mattered. Denver did switch their defense to a more aggressive defense where they fight through screens in the second half of game five. That was their best defensive half yet against the Jazz pick and roll offense. This game is the biggest game of the season for both teams. We should get a lot of effort on defense from both teams. This total is the second highest total for a game played between these two in the last nine meetings. Closeout games typically have lower posted totals. Last game went over the total thanks to 10 points in the final 23 seconds of the game including a long banked in 3 by Mitchell which made Utah keep fouling and extending the game. The teams both hit 16 three pointers in that contest and it should have stayed under the total. If the shooters cool off at all or the defense picks up some, this is a lot of points for the pace this game will be played at. Take the under. |
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08-29-20 | Thunder v. Rockets UNDER 227.5 | 80-114 | Win | 100 | 16 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets meet in a pivotal game five matchup on Saturday evening. The Houston Rockets love to shoot 3 pointers. Houston is up against an OKC team that was third in the NBA in 3 point defense. The Thunder are making them shoot difficult shots in this series. Russell Westbrook will play for the first time in this series. Westbrook does give Houston another scoring option here, and that is why the total is up several points. At the same time, Westbrook grades as one of the better defenders for the Rockets and that is being overlooked. Both of these teams last played on Monday and that is generally a good thing for the under with a long layoff. This total is set at the same number as the first couple meetings in the regular season between these two teams. This game means a lot more than those games did and on the whole that is beneficial to the under. Take the under here. |
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08-24-20 | Rockets v. Thunder UNDER 220 | 114-117 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 16 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Play of the Day* The Oklahoma City Thunder got Luguentz Dort back before game two, and with Dort back in the lineup they have been able to put together a much better defensive plan against this Houston Rockets offense. With Dort as the primary defender, James Harden was 3/14 in game three. Dort rates out as the Thunder's best defensive player and their worst offensive player in the last couple games. He'll get a lot of minutes here because of how good he has done on Harden. Minutes for Dort are a positive for the under. Clearly, Harden could have a big game at any point, but Dort is at least making him work very hard. The average pace of 98.58 possessions in this series is pretty slow. It would take some very efficient offense to get above this total if the pace stays the same here. The last two games have finished at 209 points and then 208 points in regulation. I see this total as being inflated. Take the under. |
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08-19-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets UNDER 217.5 | 124-105 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets ranked as the second slowest paced team in the regular season. Denver slows things down and grinds the game into a half court contest. Utah ranked 24th in the NBA in tempo as well, so they prefer to play slowly. In game one between these two, the pace was only 96.45 possessions. Both teams shot the ball extremely well. Mitchell absolutely went off for the Jazz. The Nuggets backups shot the ball very well. There are a bunch of key offensive players out for both teams here. For the Jazz- Conley and Bogdonavic are key pieces. For the Nuggets- Harris and Barton are both important pieces. In the regular season these teams met three times. None of those three meetings saw a regulation score finishing higher than 210 points. The total here has been adjusted upward by 3 points from game one. The Nuggets shot 54% from long range in game one and Mitchell had 57 points for the Jazz in game one. I'll bet on regression to the mean. Take the under. |
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08-19-20 | Nets v. Raptors UNDER 226.5 | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Toronto Raptors won 134-110 over the Brooklyn Nets in game one of the series. That has led this total to jump all the way to 226.5. A five point adjustment is really extreme. Toronto averaged 1.327 points per possession in game one. Brooklyn averaged 1.078 points per possession. These two teams met four times in the regular season. The highest posted total was 224.5 (the others were all 218.5 or lower). In the four regular season meetings the Raptors averaged 1.089 points per possession while the Nets averaged 1.047 points per possession. Three of the four games went under this total and two of them went under by a large amount. The Raptors are elite on defense. The Nets aren't terrible on defense either, and they should do a better job guarding Fred Van Vleet in this one. Toronto made 22/44 from 3 point range in game one. The fact they got ahead by so much early in the game made the overall pace of the game speed up. This is a big adjustment and I have to bet the under here. Playoff games mean a lot to professionals and I would expect stronger efforts on defense. Take the under. |
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08-09-20 | Grizzlies v. Raptors UNDER 222 | 99-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Memphis Grizzlies have a lot to play for right now. There are a bunch of teams in the bubble right now that really have no reason to care much whether they win or lose. Memphis is not one of those teams. The Toronto Raptors defense has been number one in the NBA in their last four games. Toronto's help side defense and awareness on defense is unmatched in the NBA. I would think they would be up for this one since they were torched by the Celtics in their last game. Memphis is third in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last four games The Grizzlies have some key pieces missing on offense too, so they have been inefficient offensively. The intensity should be high enough here and both teams will work hard on defense. Take the under. |
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08-06-20 | Pacers v. Suns OVER 229.5 | 99-114 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 36 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Indiana Pacers coaching staff talked about their want to play at a quicker tempo without Domantas Sabonis (out with an injury). They have done that in their first few games in the restart. This is a different team than we saw earlier this year. T.J. Warren is thriving in this faster pace offense, and Warren has a chance to light up his old team here. He should have a big game. Phoenix is playing among the fastest teams in the league. The Suns have been shooting the ball really well of late, and Ayton has been playing well on the inside. Devin Booker is a star and the offensive pieces around him are better than many believe. In the last three games, these teams rank 4th and 8th in offensive efficiency in the NBA. The pace will be there, and both of these teams are capable of hitting 120 here. I think this total should get to at least the mid 230's. Take the over. |
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08-03-20 | Lakers v. Jazz UNDER 219 | 116-108 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Utah Jazz offense has been a mess in the first couple games in the NBA restart. That was against a terrible New Orleans defense and a decent Oklahoma City defense. Now, they have to play a Lakers team that ranks third in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Jazz are doing too much one on one offense and not moving the ball. The first two games between these teams were totaled at 216.5 and 212.5. The games finished with 181 points and 217 points. This total has been adjusted upward quite a bit. These are two top ten defenses. The under is 11-5 in the Lakers last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record. Take the under here. |
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07-31-20 | Rockets v. Mavs OVER 229 | 153-149 | Win | 100 | 18 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets have played twice this year. The first game was a 137-123 contest. The second meeting was a 128-121 final. The posted total in the first game was 230 points. The posted total in the second game was 237-238 points depending on the sportsbook. Here, we have a total of 8 or 9 points lower than that despite the fact that both games sailed over the posted total. This is a neutral court and that accounts for a move down in the total to a degree, but it can't be adjusted by 8 or 9 points. These are the top two efficiency offenses in the NBA. The two teams both rank just below average in defensive efficiency. Both teams have shot the ball pretty well in their exhibition games here at Disney. The Rockets make a living at the line as well. I don't generally like to bet many overs on neutral courts, but this is a huge adjustment. The sharp money is on the over here, and I agree. Take the over. |
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03-08-20 | Pacers v. Mavs UNDER 218 | 112-109 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks are banged up right now. Kristaps Porzingis is listed as questionable here. Seth Curry is out of the lineup. Tim Hardaway Jr. is listed as doubtful. Luka Doncic is playing through a minor injury. The Indiana Pacers are injured even more badly. Malcolm Brogdon is out with a significant injury. Victor Oladipo is questionable as he edges back onto the floor. Doug McDermott is doubtful with an injury. Jeremy Lamb is out for the season with an injury. Sunday's have been the best day for unders in the NBA in the past decade, and it isn't even close. Today, things are even a bit more unique from a scheduling standpoint since the clocks moved forward. The under is 39-19-1 in the Pacers last 59 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Take the under. |
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03-08-20 | Thunder v. Celtics UNDER 219 | 105-104 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Late in the regular season in the NBA, taking the under when two good teams play each other has been a strong angle. Both of these teams have been very good this year. Everyone knew the Celtics would be very good. The Thunder have been better than anyone could have imagined. Sunday's have been the best day for unders in the NBA in the past decade, and it isn't even close. Today, things are even a bit more unique from a scheduling standpoint since the clocks moved forward. The under is 42-17-1 in the Thunder's last 60 games as an underdog. They have tended to slow the pace when playing against a stronger team. The under is also 22-10 in the Celtics last 32 games vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. Take the under. |
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03-08-20 | Pelicans v. Wolves UNDER 247 | 120-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Am I excited to bet an under between these two teams? Of course not. I'll do it in this situation and at this price point though. Minnesota and New Orleans play an early afternoon game on Sunday after the clocks move forward on Saturday night. Sunday afternoon unders have been very good in the long run in the NBA, and that has been especially true in the Western Conference. In this spot, the teams got an hour less rest and have their body clock thrown off even more than normal. This is one of the highest totals you will ever see in the NBA. If you get one below average scoring quarter here it should keep the game under the posted total. Take the under. |
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03-08-20 | Lakers v. Clippers UNDER 225.5 | 112-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Clippers and Lakers is a great showdown on Sunday afternoon in LA. Sunday afternoon unders have been very good in the long run in the NBA, and that has been especially true in the Western Conference. In this spot, the teams got an hour less rest and have their body clock thrown off even more than normal. This is a 12:30 local start time after a short night. Both of these teams have been excellent on defense in recent contests. I think they'll both be plenty motivated for this high profile showdown on Sunday afternoon. Effort shouldn't be lacking on the defensive end. Take the under. |
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03-06-20 | Bucks v. Lakers UNDER 228 | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 21 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Milwaukee has been the best defense in the league all year, and it hasn't been close. The Bucks have played their best defense of the season in the last few weeks though. They are dominating on that end of the floor. Milwaukee is giving up only 0.984 points per possession in their last 10 games. That's first in the NBA by a wide margin. Who is second in defensive efficiency in that same period? The Lakers. The Lakers are allowing 1.042 points per possession during that time. The Lakers are 12th in offensive efficiency during that time. The Bucks are 21st on offense in those games. This is a late season NBA game between two very good teams, and I think both teams will show up a bit more motivated than in a normal contest. On the whole that is a good thing for the under. It should be a really good one here. Take the under. |
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03-04-20 | Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 222.5 | 100-119 | Win | 100 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks have been flexing their muscles defensively of late. They have been the best defense in the NBA all year, but they have been playing their best on that end of the floor in the last few weeks. In the last 12 games, Milwaukee is allowing only 0.979 points per possession. The second best defense in the NBA during that time (Lakers) is allowing 1.054 points per possession. The Bucks are dominating with defense. Indiana ranks 9th in defensive efficiency during that time frame as well. These two teams rank 25th and 26th in offensive efficiency during that time frame. Victor Oladipo is questionable tonight and if he plays he'll clearly be less than 100%. The under is 31-12 in the Pacers last 43 road games against a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. The under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. Take the under. |
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03-01-20 | 76ers v. Clippers UNDER 219 | 130-136 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers are badly banged up right now. The 76ers have been playing a slower pace without Ben Simmons. They rank 28th out of 30 teams in the NBA in tempo in their last three contests. Philadelphia is clearly not the same team on the offensive end without Simmons and Embiid. The Los Angeles Clippers have a rare early start time. This has been great for under bettors in general in Western Conference games, and in Clippers games it has been a particularly strong angle. The under is 30-15 in the last 45 Clippers home games with a total of 190 or higher that starts at 5 pm EST or earlier. This is a contest between two quality teams. The under is 9-1 in the 76ers last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. The 76ers offense has really struggled against good defenses, and the Clippers have a lot of talent on the defensive end. Take the under here. |
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02-23-20 | Celtics v. Lakers UNDER 222.5 | 112-114 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Boston Celtics will be without Kemba Walker for this game. Walker is clearly a key to the offense. He averages 22 points and 5 assists per game. This is a very early start time for a game in Calfornia. This one starts at 12:30 pm local time. There aren't many games that start at this time for the Lakers, and the long term trend is that the under has done really well in these games. The under is 43-21-1 in the Lakers last 65 home games in general. These two teams have both been above average on defense this year, and they play at a pace right around the league average. Take the under. |
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02-02-20 | Nuggets v. Pistons UNDER 216 | 123-128 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Early Bird Special* This is an ultra early start time. The NBA games are earlier on Sunday thanks to the Super Bowl on Sunday evening. Here we have a Denver team playing a game at 10:30 am on their body clock. Detroit is playing one of their earliest games of the season as well. The two teams in this game have been playing fairly slowly. In their last ten games, the Pistons rank 19th out of 30 in the NBA in pace of play. The Nuggets rank 24th in pace of play during that time. Both teams also rate slightly better than average on defense in the last ten and slightly below average on offense in the last ten. A good spot for an under. Take the under. |
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01-20-20 | Thunder v. Rockets UNDER 229 | 112-107 | Win | 100 | 15 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Rockets have had some turmoil of late. Houston doesn't look like the team many expected them to be. Opponents have started double teaming James Harden in certain situations and forcing someone else to beat them. It has been working pretty well. Houston ranks 20th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last five games. Oklahoma City is slightly slower than the average team in the NBA in tempo. The Thunder have been inconsistent defensively, but they have done a nice job against the Rockets thus far in their meetings. These two teams don't like each other for multiple reasons. There is a lot of familiarity here, and I see this being a game where both teams place a high level of importance on this specific contest. This is an earlier start than normal, especially for two teams from the Western Conference due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday in the United States. These early starts are on the whole are a positive for the under. Take the under. |
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01-17-20 | Heat v. Thunder OVER 216 | 115-108 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* Miami has been tremendous on offense in their last five games. How good? The Heat are averaging 1.207 points per possession in their last five contests. That is third best in the NBA in that period. The defense has been bad though. Miami is allowing 1.162 points per possession, which is third worst in the NBA in the last five games. Oklahoma City has been middle of the road in both of these areas of late, but the Thunder have picked up the tempo in the last few games. It is also important to note that Oklahoma City has had much higher scoring games at home this year. Their offense is averaging just 1.059 points per possession on the road, but they are averaging 1.117 points per possession. Their defense has been slightly worse at home as well. With the efficient Miami offense and Oklahoma City scoring efficiently in transition and at home, I think this number is a few points too low. Take the over. |
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01-12-20 | Spurs v. Raptors UNDER 220.5 | 105-104 | Win | 100 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Raptors have been badly banged up. They are getting close to getting healthy, but from the sounds of coach Nick Nurse they aren't likely to have Pascal Siakim and Marc Gasol for this one. He said both of those guys should be back in the next week, but followed that up by saying that them playing today is probably a bit too ambitious. I'll take him at his word. The Raptors are playing much slower while they are without Van Vleet, Siakim, and Gasol. They don't have enough firepower now to be pushing the pace. Toronto is still great on defense though. In Toronto's last eight games, they are 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They are also 28th out of 30 teams in pace of play. The Spurs have put up some huge numbers offensively of late, but some of those have come against some really bad defenses. This officiating crew is one of the best under crews in the business. Brian Forte is the crew chief has had 54.8% of his games in his career stay under the total. Each of the refs have seen at least 52% of their games stay under the total. Take the under. |
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01-10-20 | Pacers v. Bulls UNDER 213.5 | 116-105 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Indiana Pacers and Chicago Bulls are both playing at a slow pace. If we look at their last four games, the Bulls are 22nd in tempo. The Pacers are 27th out of 30 in tempo. There isn't any reason to expect this to be anything other than a slow paced game with both teams playing in the halfcourt. Divisional unders have done much better than overs in the NBA. These teams know each other very well. In fact, they have a history of playing a lot of unders against each other. The under is 19-7 in the last 26 games between these two teams. The Bulls have been a good under team against good teams. Chicago has put up big numbers offensively on bad teams, but they have struggled against quality teams. The under is 20-7 in the Bulls last 27 games against teams with a winning record. The referee crew here is a slight positive for the under as well. This number is up because of the recent high scoring games these teams have played in, and I think that creates some value on the under. Take the under. |
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01-08-20 | Raptors v. Hornets UNDER 209 | 112-110 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 17 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Charlotte Hornets are playing at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA right now, and it isn't even close. Charlotte is averaging 94.19 possessions per game in their last ten games. The second slowest team in that time (Pacers) is averaging 96.79 possessions per game. Toronto has all sorts of major injuries right now. Pascal Siakim was amazing until getting injured. Fred Van Vleet was having a great year, but he is out with an injury now. Norman Powell is injured. Marc Gasol is injured. The guys who have been getting playing time instead now (Johnson, Thomas, Hollis-Jefferson, etc) have much lower offensive ratings than those guys who are injured. Toronto's current lineup is excellent on defense though. The Raptors are fifth in defensive efficiency in their last ten games. Johnson and Thomas rate as elite defenders according to advanced metrics. With the slower tempo and weakened offensive firepower here, I like the value on the under. Take the under. |
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01-06-20 | Bulls v. Mavs UNDER 217 | 110-118 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bulls and Dallas Mavericks are two banged up teams. Otto Porter is out for the Bulls. Lauri Markannen is listed as questionable for this game. Zach LaVine is probable with an ankle injury. Kristaps Porzingis is out for this one for Dallas. Tim Hardway Jr. is listed as questionable. Chicago ranks 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past 10 games. The Bulls are 27th in offensive efficiency. The Bulls have slowed their tempo down drastically from earlier this year as well. Chicago is 22nd in the NBA in tempo in the last ten games. Dallas is 17th, so they are slightly slower than average as well. With some key pieces missing this is a pretty high posted total. The Bulls have seen 12 of their last 15 games stay under this number in regulation. Take the under here. |
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12-31-19 | 76ers v. Pacers UNDER 212.5 | 97-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Philadelphia 76ers have drastically slowed their pace throughout the course of the season. Philadelphia is 24th in the NBA in pace of play in their last ten games. Indiana doesn't play very quickly either. The Pacers rank 20th in tempo for the year overall. The Pacers have consistently been an under team when playing against quality opponents. That has been the case again so far this year. Indiana's games are 17-7 to the under in their last 24 games against a team with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. The 76ers are averaging 1.159 points per possession in their last five games. For the year overall, this team is barely better than mediocre. I think their offensive production likely regress back toward the mean. This is a New Year's Eve contest that tips very early in the day. These early starts are a positive for the under since they are outside the normal for these players. Take the under. |
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12-27-19 | 76ers v. Magic UNDER 209.5 | 97-98 | Win | 100 | 18 h 11 m | Show | |
12-25-19 | Bucks v. 76ers UNDER 221.5 | 109-121 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 0 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers have drastically slowed their pace of play in recent weeks. In the early going this year, they were one of the top five fastest teams in the NBA. Philadelphia now ranks 21st in tempo in their last ten games. Milwaukee ranks 3rd in tempo. Milwaukee is first in the NBA in defensive efficiency both for the year and for the last ten games. The Bucks are giving up only 1.014 points per possession on the year. They are giving up an even lower 1.003 points per possession during their last ten contests. Philadelphia ranks 10th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last ten games. Christmas Day unders have done extremely well in the NBA, especially games that start early in the day. The under is 27-11 (71.1%) in Christmas Day games that tip off at 4 pm eastern or earlier. This is the day after the players get to celebrate Christmas with their families and the games being lower scoring here make a lot of sense to me. With this high number, I'll look for this to stay under the posted total. Take the under. |
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12-25-19 | Celtics v. Raptors UNDER 213 | 118-102 | Loss | -109 | 24 h 40 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics host the Toronto Raptors in a game that tips off just after noon on Christmas Day. Boston ranks 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last ten games. Toronto is 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last ten games. While Toronto has been pushing the pace, Boston has really slowed things down of late. The Celtics are 27th out of 30 teams in the NBA in tempo in the last ten games. Christmas Day unders have done extremely well in the NBA, especially games that start early in the day. The under is 27-11 (71.1%) in Christmas Day games that tip off at 4 pm eastern or earlier. This is the day after the players get to celebrate Christmas with their families and the games being lower scoring here make a lot of sense to me. Two good defenses in an early game on Christmas Day. Take the under. |
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12-22-19 | Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 220 | 89-117 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks meet in a key divisional battle on Sunday. Milwaukee has been playing some tremendous basketball this year, and they look like a virtual lock to get the top seed in the Eastern Conference barring a major injury. Indiana has really been impressive this year as well. They are 20-9 on the year, and they haven't even been at full strength for much of the season. Milwaukee ranks first in defensive efficiency in the NBA for the season. Indiana ranks seventh. Divisional unders have done better than unders in other games in the NBA over the last 15 or 20 years. These games mean more. Milwaukee is averaging 1.144 points per possession and allowing 1.019 points per possession on the season as a whole. Against only Central Division opponents, Milwaukee is averaging 1.136 points per possession and allowing 0.988 points per possession. Indiana is averaging 1.090 points per possession overall and they are allowing 1.038 points per possession. Against only Central Division opponents, Indiana is averaging only 1.006 points per possession and giving up only 1.030 points per possession. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. Take the under. |
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12-16-19 | Bulls v. Thunder UNDER 210 | 106-109 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Chicago Bulls have been much better on defense in recent weeks. The Bulls are actually second in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past eight games (behind only Milwaukee). Chicago started the season playing terrible defense and looking to run at every opportunity. They rank 19th in pace in the NBA in the past eight games, so they have slowed down a lot as well. Oklahoma City ranks 25th in the NBA in tempo in their last eight games. They rank 9th in defensive efficiency. Chicago's games have been going well under the total lately. In fact, 5 of the Bulls last ten games have finished at 198 points or less in regulation. Look for both teams to have some trouble getting open looks here. The Bulls leading scorers are playing with minor injuries as well. Take the under. |
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12-08-19 | Kings v. Mavs UNDER 217 | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Sacramento Kings are playing much slower this year. De'Aaron Fox is the catalyst for this team, and he is out with an injury. The Kings offense has been a little less efficient without him, and their defense has actually been better. Fox is one of the quickest players in the NBA, and without him the Kings don't have a reason to push the pace as much. The Dallas Mavericks have been really good on defense at home. Dallas is giving up only 1.035 points per possession at home this year. Dallas is playing a back to back here which is a positive for the under as well. Dallas plays at an average pace and Sacramento rates as the second slowest paced team in the NBA. Dallas is a clear favorite here which reduces the overtime risk. Take the under. |
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12-08-19 | Bulls v. Heat UNDER 212 | 105-110 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bulls have changed up their style in recent weeks. Chicago ranked in the top 8 or 9 in tempo for the first month of the season. For the season overall, they now rank 12th in tempo. Chicago ranks 22nd in tempo in their last five games alone. They have slowed things down and improved their defense of late. The Bulls are giving up just 1.047 points per possession (9th best in NBA) in their last five games. The Miami Heat have consistently been one of the better defenses in the NBA under Erik Spoelstra. The Heat also have slowed their tempo. Miami is 25th in the NBA in tempo in their last five games. I don't see either team pushing the pace here. Sunday unders have done very well in the past 15 years in the NBA. I see this total as a few points too high. Take the under. |
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12-07-19 | Pelicans v. Mavs UNDER 233.5 | 84-130 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Dallas Mavericks and New Orleans Pelicans are definitely capable of putting up a lot of points, and that's why this total is so high. When they met a few days ago, the game didn't come close to this posted total. This game will tip off at 1 pm local time on a Saturday afternoon. This is an extremely rare Saturday early afternoon game for these two teams. These early start times have been very good to under bettors in the NBA in the past decade. That has especially been the case when it is a divisional matchup. Dallas has been slightly worse on offense and much better defensively at home this year. The Mavericks are clear favorites here, and that reduces the chances of overtime. With an extremely high total and a divisional game in the early start time, I'll take the under in this one. Take the under. |
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12-01-19 | Heat v. Nets UNDER 216.5 | 109-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Red HOT Cash* The Miami Heat are averaging 1.154 points per possession at home. Miami is averaging only 1.045 points per possession on the road. This is a Heat team that plays solid defense regardless of where they are though. Miami is 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency on the year thus far. The Brooklyn Nets were 5th in the NBA in tempo before Kyrie Irving went down with an injury, but in their last eight games without him they rank 15th in tempo. Brooklyn's offensive efficiency has dropped from 15th to 23rd in the last eight games as well. On the other end, Brooklyn has improved a lot defensively. They were 19th in defensive efficiency before, but they are 9th in defensive efficiency in the last 8 games. Miami ranks 25th in the NBA in tempo in their last ten games. This should be a slower paced game than normal. This is also an early start game on Sunday, and these have done well for under bettors in the past. The under is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings between these two teams. Take the under. |
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11-27-19 | Kings v. 76ers UNDER 210.5 | 91-97 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers have drastically slowed their tempo of late. It has been hard for the oddsmakers to keep up with how much slower this team is playing. This team was top ten in tempo in the first couple weeks of the season. In the past 10 games, they rank as the second slowest paced team in the NBA. Who is the slowest paced team in the NBA in past 10 games? The Sacramento Kings. Sacramento has been playing fairly slow all year, but they have gotten slightly slower in the last few weeks. Philadelphia is only 15th best in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Sacramento is only 19th best in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The Kings are 21st in defensive efficiency for the season, though they have improved in the last few games. The 76ers rank 9th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. I see this being a slow paced battle. It would take some very good shooting numbers to get this one over the total if the pace is what I expect it will be here. Take the under. |
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11-25-19 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 212 | 96-101 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Raptors host the Philadelphia 76ers in a game that should have both teams motivated tonight. The Raptors edged the 76ers in the playoffs last year, and you know both teams remember that series very well. I've been tracking the 76ers very closely of late. Philadelphia has clearly decided to slow down their tempo. They were ranking in the top ten in the NBA in tempo the first couple weeks of the season. If we look at only their last 10 games, the 76ers rank 26th in the NBA in tempo. A drastic slowdown. Toronto plays near the league average in tempo. The Raptors are 9th in defensive efficiency on the year. The 76ers are 8th in defensive efficiency. The Raptors rank 7th in the NBA in offensive efficiency, while the 76ers rank 13th. This is a big game for both teams, and the recent tempo of the 76ers makes me think they try to keep this pace slow. The under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams. Take the under. |
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11-20-19 | Knicks v. 76ers UNDER 213.5 | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 17 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers have the talent to be an excellent defensive team. They rank 10th in defensive efficiency so far this year. Philadelphia has also slowed their pace down this year. The 76ers are 15th in the league in tempo overall. In the past six games alone, the 76ers are 24th in the NBA in tempo. The New York Knicks prefer to play at a slow pace. The Knicks rank 27th in pace for the year and 28th in pace in the last six games only. New York is 28th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The Knicks shot extremely well in their last game, a win over Cleveland, but they'll face a much tougher test here. The 76ers offense is only 18th in offensive efficiency. Philadelphia has been inconsistent on the offensive end. This is a divisional game where the home team is a clear favorite, and those matchups have been good to under bettors in the past decade in the NBA. Take the under. |
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11-10-19 | Nuggets v. Wolves UNDER 217.5 | 100-98 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Denver Nuggets have played at by far the slowest pace in the NBA. Denver is averaging just 97.05 possessions per game. That is nearly two full possessions per game slower than the second slowest team in the league. Minnesota is playing at the fastest pace of any team in the league. The Timberwolves do play fast, but a closer look at their schedule so far and you'll see they have played a lot of very fast paced teams. Minnesota hasn't played a team all year ranked slower than 20th in tempo. They have also played 5 of their 8 games against teams ranked in the top nine in the NBA in tempo. Denver ranks 9th in defensive efficiency in the NBA. Minnesota ranks 15th. Therse two teams rank 20th and 22nd in offensive efficiency. Sunday has easily been the best day for unders in the long run in the NBA. Sunday divisional unders have done particularly well. Take the under. |
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11-08-19 | Pistons v. Pacers UNDER 210.5 | 106-112 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Totals System Play* Divisional games under the total in the NBA has been a good angle in the long run. That is especially true early in the season. I like taking divisional unders that are contrarian plays. Divisional unders where less than half the bets are on the under and less than half the money is on the under have done extremely well in the long run. How good has this angle been overall? For the whole season overall- the under is 309-235 (56.8% unders). In the first 30 games of the season, this system is at 60.5%. Jeremy Lamb is out for the Pacers here, and he has been a big scorer (17 ppg) so far this year. The Pistons are without Reggie Jackson and Derrick Rose (20.8 ppg this year). Blake Griffin is also still out. There aren't enough scorers here for this game to be lined this high. Both of these teams play slower than average and I like this system. Take the under. |
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06-13-19 | Raptors v. Warriors UNDER 211.5 | 114-110 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Finals Game 6 CASH* The Golden State Warriors stayed alive by winning Game 5 in Toronto. That was a game with all kinds of drama. The Raptors made a big run and appeared to be on the brink of winning it, but then the Warriors made a run to finish the game and won by two. Kevin Durant's injury was painful to watch, and it was a shame to see his season end in that fashion. Durant's absence hurts the Warriors a lot on offense. They are clearly still a very good offense with Curry and Thompson, but Durant can be unguardable. Toronto can now try to take their chances on leaving Green and Iguodala open from long range. Toronto's supporting cast has been inconsistent on offense at times throughout the offseason. Leonard should have another good game here, but we will see what the Raptors do from long range. These two teams are both very underrated on the defensive end. Golden State's defense was excellent in the closing minutes in Game 5. The Raptors have a lot of length and athleticism, and they are a tough matchup. The pace has gotten slower in each of the last three games. As the game means more, things usually slow down. The tempo started at about 100 possessions per game, and the last two games have been 94.5 and 94 possessions. I wouldn't see any reason to expect a faster paced game here. It's a potential close out game and these have been very strongly toward the under in the past decade. Look for a hard fought game here. Take the under. |
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05-25-19 | Bucks v. Raptors UNDER 213.5 | 94-100 | Win | 100 | 43 h 2 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Bucks/Raptors Game 6 CASH* The Raptors have stunned just about everyone by winning three straight in this series. Toronto has really picked up their intensity on the defensive end. The Raptors have a lot of length and athleticism and they have made it very difficult on the Bucks to get into an offensive rhythm the last few games. Milwaukee ranked number one in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They have great shot blockers and good perimeter defenders as well. The Raptors have knocked down a lot of long range jumpers in the last couple games. The pace of these games has gotten slower by the contest. The tempo in game 4 was 96 possessions and in game 5 it was 95 possessions. As the games get more important, we often see the pace slow down. This is a potential close out game, and these have been great under plays in the postseason in the last decade in the NBA. I'll say the pace sits at 95 possessions or so again here. If both teams averaged around 1.10 points per possession (slightly above average in the NBA postseason), that would put the projected total at 209 points. This is a very important game for both teams and I would expect a lot of intensity on defense. Take the under. |
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05-12-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 212.5 | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 49 h 28 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* I had the under in game 6 between these two and lost, but with the way the game played out I have to take the under again here in a win or go home situation for both teams. In game 6 the tempo was just 92.5 possessions. That was the slowest game of the series thus far. The tempo tends to slow down as the games become more important. I would expect a slow tempo again here. The teams shot extremely well in game 6. Portland averaged a whopping 1.280 points per possession. During the season they averaged 1.136 points per possession. The Nuggets put up 1.174 points per possession in game 6, compared to their season average of 1.121. These teams allowed 1.080 (Denver) and 1.095 (Portland) points per possession on average in the regular season. If we take the tempo from last game at 92.5 and project that again here, which I think is a solid guess, and then give each team their season average in points per possession we would get a projected total of 209 here. If we use the points per possession that they allowed during the season overall we would get a projected total of 202. Both are clearly below this posted total. There were 52 (out of 62) made free throws in game six, and in an average NBA game there are only about 45 free throws even attempted, and 35 made free throws is about average. If we get average free throws here that knocks off 17 points from last game. There were also 27 made 3's last game and the average for these two teams would be around 22. Both teams averaged 30.8% offensive rebounds during the season, but they got back 44.0% and 33.3% of their misses in game 6. That should level out a bit in game 7. There are plenty of reasons to like this one. Game 7's are definitely lower scoring on average and the offensive efficiency numbers were extremely high last game. This is the value play given the situation. If they shoot lights out again and it goes over the total so be it, but this is the type of play that will win more times than it will lose. Take the under. |
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05-09-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 215 | 108-119 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 33 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets blew away the Portland Blazers on Tuesday night. I think we'll see a different game on Thursday night in game six. Portland has their backs against the wall and they should respond with a much stronger effort here. Still, the Blazers aren't the same team without Nurkic on the inside. Kanter is banged up as well and he isn't the offensive force he could be when healthy. The pace of this series has been very slow. The average pace through the first five games is 94.43 possessions. The last two games have seen very high shooting percentages overall. In game 5, there were a whopping 61 free throw attempts. Neither of these teams get to the line all that often on average. The tempo generally slows down in these huge games, but even if we project a pace of 94.5 possessions both teams averaging 1.13 points per possession would still keep this game under the total. That is a very solid shooting night, and the defenses generally get better in these closeout games. I like the extra value on the under in this big of a game. Take the under. |
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04-27-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 211 | 86-90 | Win | 100 | 46 h 28 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* I took the under in Game 6 between these two and lost. I'm taking the under again in Game 7. There are quite a few reasons for this play. First of all, game 6 and game 7's in the NBA playoffs have been very good to under bettors. The under is 95-67 in Game 6 or Game 7 in the NBA playoffs since 2005. That's a good starting point. Game 6 finished at 223 points, 12 points above this total. There were a lot of reasons that game 6 was high scoring that you wouldn't expect to be replicated here. -The Spurs averaged an insane 1.333 points per possession in Game 6. They averaged 1.122 points per possession during the season. -The Nuggets averaged 1.144 points per possession in Game 6. They averaged 1.121 points per possession in the regular season. -The Nuggets got 39% of their misses back in Game 6. They led the league in offensive rebounding percentage, but their percentage in the season was 30%. -The Spurs got 29.7% of their misses back in Game 6. They averaged only 24.6% offensive rebounding percentage in the season. -The teams turned the ball over on only 7.8% and 8.9% of their possessions in Game 6. Finally, the pace of the game was just 90 possessions. That was easily the slowest paced game in the series thus far. The bigger the stakes the more likely the game is to slow down. If this game plays to 92 possessions (2 quicker than last game), both teams could shoot their season average and this game would finish 5 points under the total. With game six being high scoring because of amazing shooting numbers, we get extra value on this game. If they shoot lights out again so be it. This is the right play to make as far as value. Take the under. |
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04-26-19 | Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 233.5 | 129-110 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Clippers stunned everyone by winning at Golden State again in Game 5. We head back to LA for Game 6, and I see value on the under here. There were 250 points scored in Game 5. A closer look at the shooting percentages and the tempo in that game makes me like the under here. Why? Game 5 was played at the slowest pace of the series. A tempo of 97.5 possessions. Each of the last three games has finished with a slower pace than the previous contest. How did they score so many points last game? Extremely high shooting percentages and more offensive rebounds than normal. The Clippers averaged a whopping 1.316 points per possession. The Warriors averaged a really impressive 1.247 points per possession. The Warriors defense is better than they showed last game, and Steve Kerr was really unhappy with their defensive effort. I expect better defense from them in this contest. If we get the same tempo as last game, and I think that's a good guess, both teams could average 1.18 points per possession and the total points would be at 230 points. These teams can shoot the ball well, but this is an extremely high total for game 6 in the NBA playoffs. Take the under. |
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04-25-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs UNDER 208.5 | 103-120 | Loss | -102 | 17 h 5 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The San Antonio Spurs go home down 3-2 to the Denver Nuggets. The Spurs were up 2-1 in this series, but have had a couple poor performances in a row. You would expect a really well-coached team like the Spurs to play better in a game like this one. These two teams rank 23rd and 25th at getting to the free throw line. The Spurs rank 2nd at defending without fouling. The Nuggets rank 12th. Unless the refs turn this thing into a ref show, you wouldn't expect a lot of free throws here. The average pace in the last 3 games of this series has been 93.5 possessions. At 93.5 possessions, both teams averaging an impressive 1.10 points per possession would lead to a projected total at 205.7 points. As the games get more important, the defense generally turns it up a notch in the NBA playoffs. The tempo tends to slow down a bit more as well. Here's a system to consider: First round of the NBA playoffs with a total of 191 to 209 -Home team with a win percentage of 60% or lower -Spread between home team -4.5 and +7.5 -The percentage of tickets on the under is 45% or lower In this situation the under is a whopping 47-10. This game fits the system. Take the under. |
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04-24-19 | Clippers v. Warriors UNDER 232.5 | 129-121 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors lead the Clippers 3-1 and they are a big favorite here to finish out this series. Golden State dropped game two to the Clippers. Golden State played the ultra fast paced game that the Clippers wanted in that game. The Warriors have turned the dial on the tempo the last couple games. Golden State averaged 1.149 points per possession in the regular season. In this series, they are at 1.186. The first two games were played to a pace of 108.5 possessions. The last two games in this series have played to 99.75 possessions. If we assume there will be around 100 possessions in this game- the Warriors could average 1.9 points per possession (119 points) and that leaves the Clippers needing to score more than 113 for this to go over. Two of the best under refs in the business are calling this game in Goble and Davis. Take the under. |
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04-21-19 | Raptors v. Magic UNDER 207 | 107-85 | Win | 100 | 17 h 3 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA Super System CRUSHER* The Orlando Magic are down 2-1 to the Toronto Raptors. All three games in this series have stayed under the total. In fact, they have all stayed under this total, which has been adjusted down a bit. These two teams have played 7 games this year. The average final total in those games has been 202 points. These teams are consistently playing at a slow tempo against each other. Toronto ranks 22nd in the NBA in free throw attempts per game. Orlando ranks dead last in free throw attempts per game. Orlando is 5th best at not fouling on defense. Toronto is 11th best at not fouling on defense. Both of these teams are below average at getting second chance opportunities. The Raptors have some serious defensive talent on their roster now. Kawhi Leonard is as good as they come on defense. Danny Green is a very good defender. Marc Gasol is a good defender in the low post. Serge Ibaka is a very good defender as well. The Magic are scrappy on defense and they will make Toronto work on the offensive end. There's a big system that this game fits. -A 1st round NBA playoff game -The total of 191 to 209 -Home team win percentage of 60% or lower -Road team win percentage of 50% to 73% -Home team favored by 4.5 points or is an underdog In this situation the under is a stunning 62-19 in the last 81 (76.5%). Take the under. |
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04-19-19 | Celtics v. Pacers UNDER 204 | 104-96 | Win | 100 | 18 h 17 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Indiana Pacers controlled the tempo and had a very real chance to win the game in Boston in Game 2. Indiana led by 2 points with 52 seconds left. The Pacers losing by 8 and failing to cover 7.5 is one of the worst NBA beats I've ever seen. Indiana knows they need this game badly. They aren't likely to change their game plan here. Their game plan was working in game two. Keep the Celtics out of transition and use the clock on offense. The shooting numbers weren't all that bad last game, but the game only got to 190 points. The game was played to only 94 possessions. I think Indiana gets their preferred tempo again here. Boston ranked 29th in the NBA at getting to the free throw line during the regular season. Indiana ranked 25th. These two don't normally get to the line much. The under is 20-7 in the Pacers last 27 games against a team with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. Take the under. |
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04-19-19 | Raptors v. Magic UNDER 210 | 98-93 | Win | 100 | 17 h 47 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The Orlando Magic were beaten badly in game two. I like to play unders in game 3 when the home team was beaten soundly in game two. This is a chance for the home team to attempt to rally the troops and put forth a better effort, and more times than not it comes from improved play on the defensive end. Orlando wants to slow this game down, and I expect them to work to slow the tempo a lot on their home floor. These teams have met six times this year. Four of the six games have stayed under this total. The average final total has been 204.33 points. This is a playoff game that means much more than the regular season meetings did, and playoff games have historically been quite a bit lower scoring. Orlando ranks last in the league at getting to the free throw line. Toronto ranks 21st. Unless there is a ref show, you wouldn't expect a bunch of free throws when these two teams meet. Here's a totals playoff system I have followed in recent seasons with success. -Total of 195.5 or higher -Home team is between -2.5 and +5.5 in the game -The home team is coming off a loss of 6 points or more -The home team has won 63% or less of their games in the regular season -The under is getting 45% or less of the bets The under is a whopping 37-8 (82.2% wins) in the last 45 contests that fit this criteria. This game fits the system. Take the under. |
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04-18-19 | Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 237 | 132-105 | Push | 0 | 21 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The LA Clippers made a massive comeback to win over Golden State in stunning fashion in Game 2 at Oracle Arena. Golden State is clearly the best team in the NBA, and the Warriors aren't likely to shut it down in the 3rd quarter as they did last game. Steve Kerr made it clear he wasn't happy with the Warriors defense in the second half of Game 2. While Golden State is obviously a great offensive team, most don't realize how good this Warriors defense can be when they are highly motivated. The under is 24-8-1 in the Warriors last 33 games following a loss. I don't think that's an accident. The under is also 4-1 in their last 5 after allowing 125 points or more in their last game. There were a whopping 65 made free throws in Game 2. An average made free throws number for these two teams would be in the upper 30's. Last game was an outlier. Could there be a bunch of made FT's here again? Yes, but we shouldn't expect that number to be repeated. Both teams shot the ball very well from the floor last game. This game has a little extra on the line now with the series at 1-1. The line has been adjusted upward by the oddsmakers. This is an extremely high playoff total. An average of 59 points per quarter puts this one just under the total. Take the under. |
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04-16-19 | Magic v. Raptors UNDER 212 | 82-111 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Raptors are down 1-0 after Orlando stunned them in game one. In game one, Orlando was able to slow the pace down quite a bit. The game played to 98.5 possessions. The shooting was a bit below average, but it wasn't terrible. Orlando averaged 1.051 points per possession and Toronto averaged 1.031 points per possession. Late in the regular season, Orlando was very good defensively. Toronto was also strong defensively to finish out the year. Orlando ranked 7th in defensive efficiency in the last 15 games. Toronto ranked 4th in defensive efficiency. Orlando ranked 25th in pace of play and Toronto ranked 15th. Neither team pushes the pace to any kind of extreme level. Two of the three best under referees in the NBA are on this game in Marc Davis and John Goble. Neither of these teams have been particularly strong at offensive rebounding, and that helps with avoiding second chance points. There hasn't been an adjustment down in this total like there was in most of the other contests. Take the under. |
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04-14-19 | Jazz v. Rockets OVER 213 | 90-122 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* There has been a lot of money come in on the under in this game. The total opened at 219 and has been bet down six points. I think this move has been overdone. Utah is a much better offensive team than they were a year ago. Utah got significantly better on offense late in the season this year. The Jazz were third in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last 15 games of the season. Who was first? The Houston Rockets. Houston's coaching staff has been quoted as saying they have to get the tempo going even quicker than normal here to prevent Utah's big men from setting up on the defensive end. Look for the Rockets to move the ball around quickly and try to get up some shots early in the shot clock here. Utah can sometimes shoot a poor percentage from the floor and still score quite a few points. The Jazz have been pretty good on the offensive boards, and Houston ranks second worst in the NBA in defensive rebounding percentage. Houston has scored 111 points or more in 12 of their last 13 games. Utah has scored 109 points or more in 16 straight games. The big move on the under has created some value on the over in this one. Take the over. |
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04-13-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 211.5 | 101-96 | Win | 100 | 20 h 48 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA 100% Angle Crusher* The Spurs and Nuggets have met four times this year. All four games went under the total. The stakes are clearly higher now with this being a playoff contest. The tempo generally slows down in the playoffs and the defenses work a little harder. Both San Antonio and Denver slowed their pace down late in the regular season, and I don't see any reason to expect them to speed things up now that the games mean even more. Denver ranked second slowest in the NBA in tempo in the last 15 games of the year. The Spurs were fourth slowest. Denver hasn't been all that efficient on offense overall this year. It has been their second chance points that can really do damage. The Spurs rank sixth in the NBA in defensive rebounding percentage. The Spurs are 24th in offensive rebounding percentage, so I wouldn't expect too many second chance opportunities for them. The under is 9-0 in the Spurs last 9 vs. the Western Conference. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 on two days of rest. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. The under is 6-0 in Denver's last 6 vs. the NBA Southwest Division. The under is 4-0 in the Nuggets last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A combined 31-0 angle. Take the under. |
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04-05-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 216 | 110-119 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Portland Blazers are without C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic right now due to injury. The Blazers have still been good, but their upside is certainly limited without those guys. Portland has slowed their pace down a bit without two of their best players. Portland ranked 16th in the NBA in tempo up until the McCollum injury. In their last ten games, they rank 24th in the NBA in tempo. Denver ranks 29th out of 30 teams in the NBA in tempo in their last ten games. The Nuggets have slowed the pace down drastically in recent weeks. Denver has been better defensively of late as well. Denver ranks 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last ten games. Portland has been solid defensively also of late. Portland ranks 10th in defensive efficiency in their last ten games. I like to look for unders late in the season in the NBA in games that mean a lot to both teams. Denver sits in second in the Western Conference standings. Portland sits 4th in the standings and they are only two games behind Denver. The under is 6-0 in the Nuggets last 6 games vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 home games. The under is 5-0 in the Blazers last 5 when they are off a win of 10 points or more. A 16-0 angle. Take the under. |
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04-03-19 | Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 213.5 | 85-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Denver Nuggets offense has been a mess of late. In their last 8 games, Denver ranks last in the NBA in offensive efficiency. It's hard to imagine, but yes they are actually behind the Bulls and the Knicks during their last eight games. Denver's defense has been solid during this time. The Nuggets rank 10th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last eight games. San Antonio is playing at the 28th fastest pace out of 30 teams in the league in their last eight games. Denver ranks 29th in tempo during that time. Both of these teams have been slowing the game down. Late in the season, unders between good teams have been very good in recent seasons. The angle is stronger when they are teams from the same conference. This one definitely fits. The under is 7-0 in the Spurs last 7 vs. a Western Conference foe. The under is 4-0 in the Nuggets last 4 home games. The under is 5-0 in the Nuggets last 5 vs. the NBA Southwest Division. A 16-0 angle. Take the under. |
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04-02-19 | Nuggets v. Warriors UNDER 222 | 102-116 | Win | 100 | 21 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors are back to playing better defense of late. For the season, Golden State ranks only 14th in defensive efficiency. Golden State hasn't played like a team that is terribly motivated during much of the regular season. The Warriors rank sixth in defensive efficiency in their last 10 games. Denver ranks as the second slowest paced team in the NBA in the last 10 games. The Nuggets have decided to try to slow things down quite a bit. Golden State is no longer one of the fastest teams in the league. In fact, Golden State ranks 21st in the NBA in pace in their last ten games. Denver ranks 11th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last 10 games. The Nuggets rank 25th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last 10 games. Both teams should be motivated here as the two teams fight for playoff seeding in the Western Conference. Late in the season, taking two good teams playing against each other to go under the total has been a very strong angle in the past few seasons. Take the under. |
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03-29-19 | Nuggets v. Thunder UNDER 221 | 115-105 | Win | 100 | 17 h 24 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Western Conference playoff standings are really tight. The team in first place is only 8 games ahead of the team in eighth place. Just 1.5 games separate 5th from 8th place. Denver is in second place right now in the standings, but they could still fall to 3rd or 4th or even regain the top spot. Oklahoma City sits in 7th, but they are just one game out of 5th. This game means a lot to both teams. The more these games mean late in the season, the more I lean toward the under to begin with. There are more reasons to like the under in this one too. Denver has seen 11 of their last 13 games stay under this number. The Nuggets have slowed their pace drastically. The Nuggets are playing at the second slowest tempo in the NBA in the last 10 games. Oklahoma City has a history of playing top opponents to lower scoring games. The under is 37-16-1 in the Thunder's last 54 games against a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. Paul George is listed as questionable with a shoulder injury for this game. He'll likely try to play, but he is less than 100 percent. The under is 13-3 in the Nuggets last 16 vs. the Western Conference. The under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams. Take the under. |
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03-27-19 | Pacers v. Thunder UNDER 216.5 | 99-107 | Win | 100 | 29 h 46 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* It has been a strong angle in the past decade to take the under in a game between two good teams late in the year. Both of these have plenty to play for. Oklahoma City's recent slump has dropped them to 8th in the playoff standings, but they are just one game behind fifth place. Indiana sits in the fourth spot in the Eastern Conference playoff race. They certainly want to fight hard to stay there so they have home court advantage in the first round. I like to look at recent performance this time of the year. In their last 8 games, Indiana ranks 26th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Oklahoma City ranks 27th during this time. What about on defense? Indiana ranks 4th best in the NBA. Oklahoma City ranks 6th best in the NBA during this period when it comes to defensive efficiency. Both of these teams can go through offensive droughts, but both play tough defense. This game projects as a defensive battle. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. Take the under. |
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03-24-19 | Spurs v. Celtics UNDER 220 | 115-96 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The San Antonio Spurs defense has been much better in recent weeks. The Spurs rank third in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last 12 games. San Antonio ranks 23rd in tempo in that period as well, so they are slowing things down. Brad Stevens was very upset with Boston's defensive effort in their last game, and you have to think they work harder on that end in this game. The Celtics have key players banged up that could slow the offense too. Jayson Tatum and Al Horford will either play at less than 100% or miss this game. Sunday has been the best day for unders in the NBA in the long run, and it isn't even close. This is a high total with two teams who have plenty to play for here. Take the under. |
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03-24-19 | Nuggets v. Pacers UNDER 211.5 | 88-124 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Indiana Pacers rank second worst in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last ten games. Indiana also ranks 23rd in tempo. The Nuggets rank 28th in tempo, and Denver's defense is clearly better than it was a year ago. The under is 13-3 in Denver's last 16 road games. A game between two good teams at this time of the season is a good under system in the past 15 years. This game means plenty to both teams. Sunday has been the single best day to bet unders in the NBA by a wide margin. This is a Sunday afternoon contest. The under is 7-0 in the Nuggets last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 games following an ATS loss. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. the Eastern Conference. The under is 5-0 in the Pacers last 5 following a loss by 10 points or more. A 25-0 angle. Take the under. |
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03-18-19 | Pacers v. Blazers UNDER 213.5 | 98-106 | Win | 100 | 20 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Portland Blazers are without C.J. McCollum here. McCollum has a knee injury. Without McCollum, the Blazers lose a major offensive weapon. Portland doesn't have the great second scoring option in the backcourt now. On other hand, McCollum's defensive stats have never been very good, and they might be a bit better on defense with him on the bench. Indiana is without their best scorer in Oladipo as well. The Pacers have scored 108 points or less in six straight games. They have scored 105 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games. The Pacers slow the game down, and they'll try to avoid a high scoring contest here. Portland's tempo is slightly below league average, and without McCollum it should be tough for them to be as efficient on offense. This is a game between two good teams late in the year. That's a solid under angle in the NBA in the past decade. The under is 23-8 in the Pacers last 31 games vs a team with a 60% or higher winning percentage. Take the under. |