658 USC & Gonzaga

Can’t wait for this one as we expect it to be a defensive dog fight. USC ranks 8th in adjusted defensive efficiency, and 7th in defensive effective field goal percentage. This team leads the nation in defending two point baskets at 41.5%. USC is also 231st in pace, so they should be able to slow down the Zags fast break. Both teams are in the top 40 in defensive free throw rate, as neither puts the opponent on the line. 

Gonzaga is a team that wants to get out and run, ranking 1st in two point field goal percentage. They have yet to face any opponent this season that is anywhere near as strong as the Trojans around the basket. This is just a bad matchup for Gonzaga, but their elite talent will likely have them advance. But we look for a much slower pace than we have seen the Zags play thus far. 

PLAY UNDER

644 Oregon & USC

The Ducks looked really good when playing the fast tempo of Iowa, but this game should be played at a much slower pace. Oregon has great athletes that can get out and run with the best of them. But that’s not what USC wants to do. You can see the Ducks problems in the previous 72-58 loss to the Trojans. Oregon couldn’t get to the line and shot just 16 of 40 from two point range. 

USC leads the country in defending around the basket, and rank 7th in both defensive adjusted efficiency and effective field goal percentage. Give us the Trojans.

PLAY USC

648 Syracuse & Houston

It’s been another nice run through the tournament for Jim Boeheim and his boys. But we feel this is where it comes to an end. A major reason is the offensive glass dominance of the Cougars. Syracuse ranks 339th in the nation, allowing 34.0% offensive rebounding to the opposition. Houston is the second best in the country with an offensive rebounding percentage of 39.8. 

The biggest weakness for Houston is allowing the opposition to get to the line, ranking 332nd in the country. But Syracuse isn’t a team that draws fouls ranking 266th offensively. The Orangemen rank out of the top 100 in both three and two point offensive shooting percentage, while Houston against a lesser schedule is 12th and 4th in those categories. Just a terrible matchup for the Orangemen.

PLAY HOUSTON

572 Charlotte at Houston

This seems to be a very good matchup for Houston. The Rockets rank 6th in the league in shots at the rim, and the Hornets are 26th in rim percentage shots allowed, and 25th in rim defense. Charlotte is at its best defensively in mid-range shots. But Houston ranks 30th in the league in mid-range attempts. Houston likes to shoot from distance, and this Charlotte defense gives up a great deal of threes. Ranking 30th in corner threes and 29th overall. 

The Hornets will be without LaMelo Ball who is out for four weeks after right wrist surgery. They rebounded from the loss to the likely rookie of the year, with a 100-97 victory over San Antonio on Monday. Teams tend to step up after a star player injury the first game, but struggle then after. That’s what we expect here.

PLAY HOUSTON

805 Texas Tech & Arkansas

This should be one of the best games of the season if you love defense. Although the Red Raiders only have an 18-10 record on the season, all the losses were to Top 32 opposition. Every team Texas Tech lost to is still alive in the final 32, except Texas who beat the Red Raiders by a single point.

Arkansas has the gaudy 23-6 record, but the advanced stats show this as more of an 19-10 team. Even in the 85-68 win over Colgate, it took an 11 of 31 two point shooting night from the underdog to get the victory. 

The Red Raiders have a pedigree in the Big Dance, with one of the best coaches in the country. There is a reason they are favored here.

PLAY TEXAS TECH

789 Abilene Christian & Texas

Really like this Wildcats team who held their own at Texas Tech and Arkansas. They lead college hoops in forcing turnovers, and rank 11th in defensive efficiency field goal percentage. This is also a club that ranks 21st in the country in offensive field goal percentage. 

Texas is a very good team but ranks 291st in the country in letting the opposition get to the line. Entering here off five straight victories, we expect the Longhorns to take this opponent for granted. We’ve already seen Texas no show plenty of times this season.

PLAY ABILENE CHRISTIAN

527 Cleveland at New Orleans

The Cavaliers were playing solid ball before the All-Star Break, and could be fully healthy for the first time all season tonight. Larry Nance Jr is back in action after having hand surgery. Also Garland and Love have been updated to questionable. Kevin Love is still a quality player when he is able to stay healthy, and he and Garland both practiced fully yesterday.

New Orleans does one thing well, crash the offensive glass. But Cleveland is a team that is built to keep the opposition off the glass, especially if Love gets some minutes tonight. Cleveland is the fresher team and didn’t have anyone participating in the weekend festivities. Great spot for the Cavaliers to take this to the wire.

PLAY CLEVELAND

636 California & Stanford

The Bears have dropped 11 of 12 heading into the conference tournament. They have already lost twice to Stanford 76-70 and 70-55. In looking at the advanced stats those were two games California really wasn’t overly competitive. 

Stanford has dropped four straight heading into this tourney, with the last game being the worst advanced stats game of the season. An embarrassing 79-42 loss at USC. The Cardinal is facing a team they are extremely confident against, and they take out a can of whoop ass on the Bears tonight.

PLAY STANFORD

639 Nebraska & Penn State

The Cornhuskers are 7-19 but our numbers show them with a 9-17 record based on the advanced stats. We backed them last time out against Northwestern and had a nice cover. Are they a good team? No. But it all comes down to value when betting on sports.

Penn State is 10-13 and off back to back wins over Minnesota and Maryland. But everyone is beating the Golden Gophers right now, and the Terrapins win wasn’t fully deserved. When looking at the advanced stats and shot selection, Maryland was the much better team. These two have played twice thus far and Penn State has outscored Nebraska 147-145. No way this line should be this high.

PLAY NEBRASKA

814 Iona & Quinnipiac

The Gaels ended the season in fine fashion sweeping Monmouth. They come in to this tourney after posting an 8-5 record on the regular season.

The Bobcats beat Iona 74-70 in their only meeting, and we see no reason why they can’t do it again. Despite the 9-12 regular season record, the advanced shooting stats say this is a 13 win team. Quinnipiac deserved a better record based on shot selection for themselves and their opponents. They enter this contest off a 66-64 loss to St Peter’s, a game they outplayed the Peacocks. This line is too high as we have these two much closer in talent.

PLAY QUINNIPIAC

786 Northern Kentucky & Oakland

The Norse have been very fortunate to have the 14-10 record they do. When factoring shot selection and advanced stats this team plays more like a 10 or 11 win team. Tuesday Northern Kentucky knocked off Detroit 70-69, but the game could have and probably should have turned out differently. They had a 42.4 offensive rebounding percentage, the fourth best of the season. They held Detroit to a second best 14.3 free throw rate.

You have to tip your cap to the Golden Grizzlies who started the year playing Xavier, Toledo, Michigan, Purdue, Oklahoma State and Michigan State. This is not a team that will be intimidated by these surroundings. The advanced stats see this as a 14 win team, not the 11 win club that the current record shows. Oakland has a recent 7-2 record when playing teams ranked 200th and higher. The two losses were in double overtime. We have Northern Kentucky currently ranked 206th. 

PLAY OAKLAND

737 Nebraska at Northwestern

It’s been an ugly season for the Cornhuskers, but they had been playing more competitive at least until Thursday. That’s when they suffered their most embarrassing loss of the season, a 102-64 defeat at Iowa. 

Northwestern had lost 13 straight games before knocking off Minnesota and Maryland. But the advanced stats show the Wildcats should have lost to Minnesota. 

Sure the Wildcats have three more wins on the season, but is this line really indicative of the talent on these two teams. We don’t think so, give us the Huskers off an embarrassing loss.

PLAY NEBRASKA

644 Butler at Creighton

Butler survived the earlier home meeting 70-66 in overtime. But were a bit lucky to do so when checking out the advanced stats.

Creighton has dropped two straight including a 72-60 loss at Villanova on Wednesday. Looking at the advanced stats in that game we see it was by far the worst performance for the Blue Jays this season. We expect a big rebound from Creighton in this one, as they can’t afford another loss to a middling team. Especially considering their Big Dance seed.

PLAY CREIGHTON

699 Stanford at USC

The Tree had little problem scoring on this USC defense in the last meeting. Making 20 of 36 from two point range, and 7 of 16 from distance. It was a very poor 15.8 free throw rate that cost Stanford the game. Coming off two straight games against Oregon where the Cardinal really struggled to get to the line, we expect a squad on a mission tonight.

USC has lost three of four with the lone win coming at home against Oregon. The Trojans were really pumped for that game because of how hot the Ducks have been this season. Despite back to back losses, we can’t see USC being overly motivated to run the score up here. Not with UCLA, their big rival on deck. This is also senior night and USC has three players to honor. We like to fade teams in this situation, as it takes the players away from their normal routine.

PLAY STANFORD

610 Wake Forest at Pittsburgh

Wake has dropped 13 of 16 in conference action this season. One of the three victories came against this Pittsburgh squad. In that game the Demon Deacons shot 15 of 32 from distance, and had a 59.8 effective field goal percentage. 

Pittsburgh has dropped eight of nine, including five straight. But every one of those five losses were by seven points or less. With a trip to Clemson to end the regular season, the Panthers need this victory to gain double digit victories.

PLAY PITTSBURGH

845 Oklahoma at Oklahoma State

Quick home and home revenge game for the Sooners, who just lost at home to the Cowboys 94-90 in overtime. It’s just the second home loss of the season for the Sooners. In that game Oklahoma was held to a season low offensive rebounding percentage. 

State has now won four straight games heading into this rematch. But the advanced stats say this team was fortunate to win the last two contests, both overtime victories. We love Lon Kruger as a coach and expect his team to have an additional spark here. The Sooners have dropped two straight and have Texas on deck. This is a must win for the visitor.

PLAY OKLAHOMA

735 Furman at Wofford

The Paladins have won four straight and haven’t played a bad game since the 81-71 loss to Winthrop in mid-December. But there is one game i’m sure they have circled, tonight’s matchup with Wofford. You see the Terriers are the only team to beat Furman in Timmons Arena this year. In that game the Paladins had a season low free throw rate as the team just didn’t push the action. 

Wofford is coming off its best game of the season blowing out Western Carolina 80-56. You couldn’t ask for a better spot for the visitor.

PLAY FURMAN

836 Southern Utah at Northern Arizona

The Thunderbirds just beat the Lumberjacks 85-80 on Wednesday. Having now won six straight and 16 of 19 on the season, what is their motivation to run up a score here? Especially with a pretty good Portland State two game trip on deck. 

This is the final regular season game for the Lumberjacks. We don’t have to worry about any senior night distractions, as this team doesn’t have anyone graduating. Off three straight losses, including two uncompetitive games, you have to think you get a full effort from the host here. Much better spot play for the Lumberjacks.

PLAY NORTHERN ARIZONA

307323 McNeese State at SE Louisiana

The Cowboys matchup very well with Southeastern Louisiana. In fact, in the earlier meeting they had the best PPP of the conference season. Unfortunately they lost 92-88 in what was a very even game. The Cowboys have played their best ball of the season as of late despite a 2-4 record. This team has been right there in every game except the 64-56 loss to Lamar. This is an undervalued team right now.

The Lions of Southeastern Louisiana have had more success lately in the win/loss column. But when looking at the advanced stats they have been extremely inconsistent. The recent wins have been legit, but the losses were much worse than the final scores. For example last Saturday in an 86-84 overtime loss to Nichols State, the Lions were completely outplayed and should have lost by double digits in regulation. The host has been rather lucky as of late while the visitor has been better than the final scores indicate. We will gladly take the points with the Cowboys.

PLAY MCNEESE STATE

754 Eastern Illinois at Murray State

The Panthers of Eastern Illinois have had a disappointing season. They rank 303rd in offensive adjusted efficiency, and 290th in defensive adjusted efficiency. They don’t get to the line ranking 331st in free throw rate, and when they get there they shoot 66.0% 295th in the country. But somehow they found a way to beat Murray State 74-68 back in early January. 

The Racers have won 8 of 11 games since that loss, as Murray State has turned around its season. With only SIU Edwardsville on deck after beating them by 29 on Monday, you know the Panthers have their full attention. This one should get ugly in a hurry. 

PLAY MURRAY STATE

681 Western Carolina at Chattanooga

The Catamounts have really struggled in Southern Conference play. Posting a 2-10 record and losing to the Mocs 74-67 just two weeks ago. But despite the record Western has been very competitive this season, at least until Saturday when Furman took them to the woodshed in a 88-70 loss. They were actually fortunate in that contest, as the advanced numbers show it was the worst performance of the season for the Catamounts. What Mark Prosser’s team has done this season is bounce back from a bad performance. 

Chattanooga comes into this contest fat and happy. On a five game winning streak, including victories over East Tennessee State twice. Now they face the lowly Catamounts before taking on a home revenge contest against UNC Greensboro. Quite the sandwich game here for the host. Give us the points with the Catamounts to take this to the wire.

PLAY WESTERN CAROLINA

821 South Dakota State at Oral Roberts

The Jackrabbits had a litter of mistakes yesterday in a 103-86 loss to Oral Roberts. The defense which had been only slightly below average simply didn’t give any effort. The 103 points allowed was a season high, besting the previous high of 84 in a win over Bradley. The 125.2 defensive PPP was also a season high, and they permitted 16 of 30 from downtown. This was also the lowest ranked team the Jackrabbits have lost to this season.

Oral Roberts has a good offense, but this defense is ranked 306th in Adjusted Efficiency. This club simply does not have the defensive prowess to hold down the Jackrabbits in back to back games. South Dakota State has followed losses this season with wins by margins of 24, 3, 43 and 11 points. That includes a good Utah State team, and Big 12 participant Iowa State. 

PLAY SOUTH DAKOTA STATE

744 UCLA at Washington

Bruins have dropped three of four with the offense really struggling as of late. They did beat Washington in Mid-January 81-76 but only shot 20 of 50 from two point range. UCLA was just blown away at USC 66-48, then dropped a 81-73 decision to Washington State. A team the Bruins beat by 30 points just four weeks prior. No way we want to lay points with this squad at the moment. 

Washington is a bad basketball team but have been a competitive 3-5 SU at home. The offense has improved greatly as of late with five of nine games producing 59.6 or better EFG%. They can compete with this fading Bruins team.

PLAY WASHINGTON

845 Manhattan at Iona

The Jaspers have dropped four straight, but were the better team last time out in a 71-69 overtime loss to Monmouth. Only one of the last seven losses was by more than 5 points, with three games going to overtime. This is a much better team that its record.

The Gaels have won three straight, but have been nothing special other than ranking 44th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. Manhattan is actually pretty good as well ranking 89th in that category. Plenty of value here on an underdog that is quietly staying under the radar.

PLAY MANHATTAN

713 Utah at California

The Utes were a team that suffered some bad luck losses early on. But have now won 4 of 6 as of late. One of those defeats came while hosting Cal in a 72-63 defeat. Since that time they outplayed Washington in a 83-79 loss, and beat Colorado and Arizona. 

Cal is only 5-5 straight up in this building, with four of those five victories coming against 180th and higher ranked opponents. On the season against Top 120 opposition the Bears are 2-14 SU. Look for that to continue on Thursday.

PLAY UTAH

671 Bradley at Valparaiso

We backed Valpo on Sunday as a sizable underdog against Drake. Not only did they cover wire to wire they actually ended the undefeated season for the Bulldogs. But this is another day, as we look to fade the fat and happy club off a nationally recognized upset win.

While the Braves are 1-7 SU on the road this year, they have played much better than their record. A one point loss at Xavier, a one point loss at Missouri and a double overtime loss to these Crusaders. In that earlier meeting Valparaiso had a 53.5 free throw rate, which is the worst defensive FTR of the season for Bradley. The Braves on the other hand had a 21.8 FTR in that meeting. 

Bradley has lost 7 of 8 games recently, but our advanced stats show they should have split those eight games. We are catching an underrated team, with revenge, against a Valpo squad off its biggest win in recent memory.

PLAY BRADLEY

863 Oklahoma State at Kansas

Cowboys off by far its worst offensive PPP of the season at 0.83. Made just 19 of 55 two pointers, keep in mind this is a Top 100 team from that range. 

Kansas has lost 5 of 7 as of late. Only wins were against TCU and Kansas State. Jayhawks are 4-7 vs Top 50 opposition, 4 of those wins were by 4 points or less. This line is simply too high to back the host.

PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE

801 Towson at College of Charleston

The Towson Tigers just lost to this team 90-88 in double overtime yesterday. Now seek to even the score  at TD Arena. Towson is a team that is terrific on the offensive glass, ranking 14th in the nation in that regard. But the Cougars held their own in that category yesterday. 

Charleston isn’t anything special on this court with a 5-5 straight up mark. Two of those contests went to overtime. Look for Towson to even up the score here as they have shown a propensity to play better in these back to back contests.

PLAY TOWSON

307029 Grambling at Southern

The Tigers have won 4 of 6 and two straight heading into this Southern rematch. The Jaguars won earlier on the road 61-55. That game was decided from long distance as Grambling shot just 3 of 17 while Southern cashed in on 8 of 18. Those numbers aren’t even close to how these two have performed from 3 point range on the season. 

Southern enters this contest off just its second road victory of the year, a 76-59 win at Alcorn State. The Jaguars held the Braves to a season low PPP of 76.4. Alcorn made just 1 of 13 from distance in that contest. Look for a bit of revenge here from Grambling who really should have had better success in the previous meeting.

PLAY GRAMBLING

307031 Nicholls State at Sam Houston State

The Colonels are running hot as of late winning eight straight games. Its last loss coming to this same Sam Houston State team. In that meeting the Bearkats hit 12 of 24 from distance, tying the worst 3 point defensive game of the season for Nicholls State. 

Sam Houston also enters this contest with a hot hand, with 10 of 11 victories. The lone loss was last time out at Stephen F Austin. While the Bearkats are playing on an undefeated home court, the price is a bit high playing into a hot avenging underdog. Should be a great competitive game but the Colonels get the victory.

PLAY NICHOLLS STATE

703 Charlotte at Middle Tennessee State

These two played a really good game yesterday with the Blue Raiders coming out on top 66-65. That broke a three game winning streak for the 49ers. But upon closer inspection did the winning team deserve it? Charlotte simply wasn’t aggressive, with just a 16.7% in free throw rate. That is by far the worst performance of the season in that regard. It also didn’t help to shoot 3 of 12 from distance. Charlotte is by far the better team and we really don’t like the way Middle Tennessee State performs. Love to get the better squad off an embarrassing loss, especially in revenge.

PLAY CHARLOTTE

857 UL Monroe at UT Arlington

4-13 Monroe rides an eight game losing streak into this matchup with Arlington. They already dropped two home meetings 77-64 and 75-74. But we really liked the way the defense played in that last meeting, holding the Mavericks to 3 of 18 from downtown and 12 of 34 from two point range. That was the best defensive ppp of the season for the Warhawks. 

Arlington could be a bit fat and happy here after winning two of three lately, along with that earlier sweep. They are only 2-3 straight up at the College Park Center this year vs division one competition. Just too many points to lay for a team ranked 309th in offensive effective field goal percentage.

PLAY UL MONROE

872 Akron at Kent State

We faded the Zips on Tuesday with success against Toledo. We do so again here with its cross town rival Kent State. The last time these two tangled was New Years Day when the Zips pulled out a 66-62 home victory. But a closer look at the stats show Akron held the Golden Flashes to 5 of 23 from downtown. The Zips had its second lowest offensive ppp in that contest and still won the game. That likely won’t hold up in the rematch on Friday. 

Kent has been riding hot as of late winning 7 of 8. The only loss coming at Toledo by two points. The only losses in regulation for Kent State this season have come against Toledo twice and these Zips. Look for Kent State to even this series with a solid victory.

PLAY KENT STATE

681 Seton Hall at Providence

The Pirates are riding a season long three game losing streak heading into Providence. It’s also a team looking to avenge an earlier 80-77 overtime defeat. In that game the Friars shot 9 of 18 from deep, that was the second best shooting from downtown on the season. That from a team who ranks 213th in the country from 3 point range. 

Providence has seven victories on the season vs Top 100 competition. Three of those wins came in overtime. According to the Shot Quality website the Friars have 9 wins but only deserve 7.5 based on their shot selection. Seton Hall actually is a bit underrated, having won 9 but deserve 9.3 victories. With the Pirates desperate for a win we look for Seton Hall to have success on Wednesday.

PLAY SETON HALL

307306 Morgan State at Coppin State

This is the fourth meeting of the season between these two as the Bears have taken 3 of 4 including a 79-76 win on Saturday. It’s also the second of four straight on the road for Morgan State. 

Coppin State played a much tougher non-conference schedule, with games against Duke, Georgetown and Virginia Tech. Since getting into league action the Eagles have won 5 of 7, the two losses coming against the Bears. We expect Juan Dixon and company to take out some frustration on Tuesday.

PLAY COPPIN STATE

634 Eastern Kentucky at Jacksonville State

The Colonels knocked off Jacksonville State in early January 69-66 in Overtime. Both teams were horrendous from distance combining for 9 of 54. Now on an 11-1 run heading into the rematch, the visitor looks to be a bit fat and happy. 

The Gamecocks are coming in off an embarrassing 85-66 home loss to Morehead State. That makes two straight defeats at the Pete Mathews Coliseum, after Belmont beat them 98-91 a little over two weeks ago. Those are the only two home losses on the season. With lowly Tennessee Martin on deck, we see the Gamecocks strutting after this one.

PLAY JACKSONVILLE STATE

838 UNLV at Nevada

The Rebels have played much better ball as of late winning 5 of 6 heading into this in-state rivalry. But keep in mind 4 of the 5 wins were against St Katherine, Benedictine Mesa and New Mexico twice. The only good team they have beaten all year was a 59-56 win over Utah State, who beat them by 9 in the quick rematch. The Rebels have won just one game on the road all year, at a very weak Kansas State. 

Nevada is off back to back losses at Wyoming, a tough home court. The only other defeats on the season were to San Francisco, Grand Canyon and San Diego State twice. This is a team that gets to the foul line extremely well and when its there it converts. UNLV on the other hand ranks 342nd in offensive free throw rate. Look for the host to take advantage of its longest home stand of the season, and get a solid victory against the Rebels.

PLAY NEVADA 

573 Cleveland at New York

Third meeting between these two this year with each team grabbing a victory. In the first meeting the Knicks shot lights out from distance in a 95-86 victory. What made that so surprising was that the vast majority of those threes were defended very well. In the second meeting New York wasn’t nearly as lucky and Cleveland won 106-103. Now almost fully healthy we look for Cleveland to once again get the better of the Knicks. 

New York returns home for the first time after playing four games on the west coast in six days. We all know how hard it is the first time back in town from a family situation. The Knicks are 23rd in offensive turnover percentage which can really be a problem against the 1st ranked turnover defense of the Cavaliers. Cleveland’s offensive success is predicated on turnovers as this team also has great success with deflections. The guard combo for the visitor has great speed which leads to easy baskets for the Cavs. We expect that to happen often here.

PLAY CLEVELAND

552 Oklahoma City at Phoenix

Thunder are playing its third game in for days all in different cities. They just broke a three game losing streak in Portland last night. This is the final game of a five game trip, and may be satisfied after that victory last night.

Phoenix hasn’t played the past three days, so this is a team in much better position to play wire to wire. Especially when you consider this is their fifth game in the last 18 days. Coming off back to back overtime losses hosting Denver, the Suns have much more motivation for a victory tonight. 

The Thunder are dead last in offensive rebound rate, which should be a major deal against a Suns team that clears the boards defensively in the Top 10. 

PLAY PHOENIX

621 Oklahoma at Texas

Sooners have won three straight games but now step up in class to play three straight Top 20 squads. Oklahoma ranks 4th in the nation in opponent free throw rate, which is very important when playing on opposing courts. Evan Miya currently has Texas the 312th ranked home court in college basketball. So there will be no intimidation factor for the Longhorns. 

According to shotquality.com Oklahoma is in the 99th percentile in adjusted offensive SQ rank, and in the 96th percentile in the same defensive ranking. That means the Sooners take high quality shots and limit high scoring chances for the opposition. Texas sits at 93 and 92 in those categories. Texas is 11-2 on the season but have been very lucky with their scoring chances. ShotQuality states that the Longhorns should only be 8.7 and 4.3 in win/loss record. We will fade the overrated Longhorns here on a weak home court.

PLAY OKLAHOMA

571 Cleveland at Boston

The Cavaliers continue to be overlooked just because of the name on the front of the jersey. This team is a money maker and are now almost fully healthy with Dellavedova and Love remaining out. The trade with the Nets made this one of the deeper teams in the league. This club leads the NBA in defensive turnover percentage and tipped passes. That’s a concern against a Boston team ranking 20th in offensive turnover percentage. The entire team has been buying in defensively, and now the starting backcourt is fully healthy. Jason Tatum remains doubtful for the Celtics as well. We feel the visitor wins this outright.

PLAY CLEVELAND

744 Pittsburgh at Wake Forest

The Panthers are riding high, winning 8 of 9 and 4 of 5 in conference. Off two wins over Syracuse and beating Duke. After four Top 70 opponents, and six Top 70 opponents on deck, we can see the Panthers overlooking the Demon Deacons here. Wake has lost six straight games, all against top competition. The Panthers at #70 in our ratings are actually the worst team Wake has faced this entire month. After facing the cream of the crop in the ACC, Wake Forest is extremely underrated. Wake is weak defending inside but Pitt is just average from that range. We smell upset.

PLAY WAKE FOREST

836 Georgia State at Appalachian State

The Panthers have gotten off to a nice 8-2 start on the season, 2-1 in the Sun Belt Conference. Coming off a rarity, three straight games against Coastal Carolina. After winning the last two, we can see this team having a bit of a letdown here. Georgia State is a team that forces defensive turnovers and gets to the foul line. But this team ranks 329th in free throw shooting at 61.9%. Always tough laying points with a bad free throw shooting team, especially on the road.

App State ranks 2nd in the nation in opponent free throw rate, as they simply do not give away free points at the line. They also take decent care of the ball, so turnovers shouldn’t be a concern. The Mountaineers are 7-2 straight up at Holmes Center this year, with one of those losses coming in overtime. This should be a good matchup for the home underdog.

PLAY APPALACHIAN STATE

712 Northwestern at Wisconsin

After starting the conference season with a 3-0 mark, the opposition has made the needed adjustments to Chris Collins’ scheme. The Wildcats have dropped five straight losing by margins of 23, 10, 25, 19 and 15 points. Now they must travel to what evanmiya.com considers the strongest home court in the country. 

Wisconsin has had plenty of time to prepare after bouncing back from that terrible performance at Michigan. It won 60-54 at Rutgers, a tough place to play. Wisconsin shot 6 of 25 from distance against the Scarlet Knights, the worst long distance shooting of the season. We expect the Badgers to run the Wildcats out of the building.

PLAY WISCONSIN

842 Tarleton State at Weber State

This is a huge situational advantage for the host. The visitor is one of the worst programs in Division 1 hoops. It has yet to beat a team on its Divion 1 schedule. They are playing the third road game in three days, and only use a seven man rotation. 

Weber State has 13 days off because of Covid, and played yesterday in a game it won by 80 points. The bench played extended minutes in that contest. So we have a very rested team that got the rust off yesterday against Yellowstone Christian. Well rested in altitude is the situation today. A huge edge for the host.

PLAY WEBER STATE

816 Western Kentucky at Marshall

Quick home and home for these two after the Hilltoppers won on Friday 81-73. We expect some regression from the foul line for the visitor who ranks 6th in the country in free throw shooting percentage. That’s a far cry from the 252nd ranked 3 point percentage, and 157th ranked 2 point offensive percentage. 

Marshall isn’t very good at getting to the line, but the previous matchup was by far the worst in that regard all season. Just a 7.0 free throw rate compared to a season rank of 25.9. We also see that the Thundering Herd allowed a season high 43.8 offensive rebounding percentage. Marshall has lost on this court just once all season, in overtime to a Top 70 Toledo team. Look for Dan D’Antoni to have his team playing with much more energy here than on Friday.

PLAY MARSHALL

852 Bowling Green at Buffalo

The Falcons took the previous meeting at home 86-78, getting to the free throw line on a regular basis. That’s not a regular occurance for this team and we expect somewhat of a reversal here. 

Buffalo struggled offensively early on, but have been much better the past four games. The Bulls have won 4 of 5 as of late with the lone loss in overtime at Syracuse. Like the revenge angle here for a team on the rise.

PLAY BUFFALO

718 Stanford at Utah

The Cardinal have reeled off 7 of 8 wins as of late, but were only 1-1 against top 100 opposition. The victory by just three points at home against Arizona. This team ranks 286th in the nation in 3 point percentage. The past five games Stanford has gone 18 of 77 23% from long range. That tells us that if the Cardinal fall behind here it will be very difficult to come back.

Utah is just 4-5 on the season but are a much better team than the record suggests. According to the Bart Torvic site, the Utes should have won six of those contests. Off four straight losses this is a must win for the host. We’ve been looking to back the underrated Utes and the time is right.

PLAY UTAH

536 Utah at Cleveland

Jazz in their sixth of seven on the road with the finale in Washington tomorrow. Don’t think Utah wants to push the pace with tired legs, especially with another game tomorrow. This team has had two back to backs already this season, scoring just 95 and 96 points on the front end of those occurrences. 

Cleveland has now played eight straight games scoring less than the century mark. This team simply doesn’t have any scoring with virtually half the squad sitting on the sidelines. Worked for us yesterday, let’s play it again.

PLAY UNDER

518 Memphis at Cleveland

Since the Ja Morant injury the Grizzlies are averaging just 100 points per game. These two played just a few days ago and the Cavaliers pulled out a 94-90 victory. Since that time the Cavs have gotten Isaac Okoro back, their best overall defender. 

Cleveland has failed to reach 100 points in seven straight games. Sexton is day to day while virtually half the team is currently out. The only way either of these teams have success is on the defensive end of the court.

PLAY UNDER

550 Oklahoma City at New York

The Thunder enter play with a 3-4 mark, but have been very fortunate to have that number of wins. They are 3rd in the NBA in wins over expectation, as their numbers show it should have only 1.9 victories. This is a team that ranks 30th in points per possession, and 30th in offensive rebounding percentage. 

New York ranks 3rd defensively in points per possession, and 2nd in effective field goal percentage. Austin Rivers ranks in the 100th percentile in points per shot attempt, while Julius Randle is in the 98th percentile in bigs with a 30.2% assist rate.

Can’t see the Thunder having any success offensively here as the Knicks continue to be underrated in the betting markets.

PLAY NEW YORK

740 UNLV at Colorado State

Rebels enter this contest at 1-4 on the season and they haven’t played since December 5th because of Covid. This team simply has not played well at all this season, especially defensively. Ranking 291st in defensive effective field goal percentage. They are 331st in getting to the line, while the opposition get there 19.2% more often. We want no part of this team right now until they can stop someone. Too many bad shots from Bryce Hamilton and his 49.5 effective field goal percentage.

Colorado State also with San Diego State and Boise State are the class of this conference. The Rams are just 2-2 on the road thus far, a perfect 4-0 in this building. The wins here have been by margins of 12, 39, 22 and 22 points. Since it’s a back to back situation with the Rebels, the altitude should be more pronounced in the first game. The Rams run defensive circles around the Rebels, the line here is high for a reason.

PLAY COLORADO STATE

673 Virginia Tech at Louisville

Hokies first road game of the season could be a concern here. That said, we’ve been very impressed by VT thus far this season. Coming in with an 8-1 mark with wins over Villanova and Clemson. 

Louisville is still without two of its best players, and we still aren’t sold on the Cards offense. This team has won 7 of 8, but were very fortunate to beat Kentucky and Seton Hall. Keep in mind opponents are only shooting 61% from the free throw line, which obviously isn’t sustainable. Give us the points in what should be a very tight contest.

PLAY VIRGINIA TECH

575 Cleveland at Orlando

The Magic really want to run this year, but they haven’t done it with a whole lot of success thus far. Orlando will have troubles tonight against a Cavs team that has had success in the open court as well as in the half court game. 

We really expect the big men for Cleveland to have a big night as the Orlando front court players are weak defensively, especially the All-Star center who is more worried about offense. 

Cleveland is the more rounded team here and we expect this club to win at least one of these two games outright. The points are a nice bonus.

PLAY CLEVELAND

867 Southern Illinois at Drake

Heading into this season Southern Illinois was expected to finish 4th in the Missouri Valley Conference. Drake was expected to be a 7th place team. Now after ten or so games being played Drake is a double digit home favorite against the Salukis.

Sure the Bulldogs pulled away late for an 18 point victory yesterday, but this was a close game for the majority of the contest. In fact, that win yesterday was the first Division 1 victory for the Bulldogs over a team with a current winning record. And it isn’t even close as many of the Drake victims have been horrible.

Drake is undefeated on the season against the spread. Many people have used Drake as their own personal ATM. But the betting lines tend to catch up, and this line based on talent is simply insane.

PLAY SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

Undefeated in the New Year after sweeping the Friday board. Now on a 26-17 overall run. We set our sights out west for this Strong Selection in College Basketball. One club on this PAC 12 card has a major mismatch advantage we feel isn't being fully appreciated in these betting markets. We set our sights on taking full advantage of that weakness. 

737 Michigan at Maryland

The undefeated Wolverines have already beaten three top 100 squads by margins of 22, 4 and 20 points. This club ranks 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and 33rd in the defensive equivalent. Michigan has dominated in the paint ranking 9th offensively and 2nd defensively. 

Michigan hasn’t played in six days, while Maryland is playing its fourth game in ten days. Maryland is 1-3 vs top 100 opponents, and the only win was last time out in a road upset of Wisconsin. While the offense for the Terrapins ranks 17th in adjusted efficiency, the Maryland defense isn’t high quality. In a pick and win situation the Wolverines have been by far the more consistent squad.

PLAY MICHIGAN

560 New York at Cleveland

Coming into the season both these teams were rated almost exactly the same. The Knicks enter play at 1-2 while the surprising Cavaliers are undefeated at 3-0. We’ve watched all three Cleveland games, and this team is much better than the preseason expectations. The Cavs lead the league in spread difference at +16.7, and are 2nd in the NBA in defense. Cleveland now has two really good big men that have kept the opposition out of the paint. The offense is being led by two of the best young players at the guard spot in Garland and Sexton. Neither were very good defensively last year, but with the new style of play they have picked up the defense very well. In our opinion Garland was so bad last year he could be a nice comeback player of the year candidate. 

Kevin Love is out from 3-4 weeks, which actually helps the youngsters keep the ball moving. Cleveland has been excellent on assisted baskets in this young season. Number is cheap once again, as the Cavaliers are much improved.

PLAY CLEVELAND

833 Missouri State at Northern Iowa

Quick rematch after the Bears pounded Northern Iowa yesterday 79-59. The big differential that will be talked about is the perimeter shooting. The visitor shot 11 of 25 from 3, while the host was 4 of 20 from long distance. But keep in mind, the Panthers rank 250th in the country defending the 3 pointer. The only team they kept in check from distance was St Ambrose, a 2 for 25 from long distance, also the only win on the season for Northern Iowa. That 8% from distance really brings down these terrible defensive numbers. 

Missouri State has played much better ball in the early going. Despite the quick revenge situation, the Bears are the better team catching points.

PLAY MISSOURI STATE

530 Philadelphia at Cleveland

Second game of a back to back for Joel Embiid after playing over 30 minutes last night at New York. Teams get up to play in Madison Square Garden, and a likely letdown here traveling to Cleveland is likely. 

The Cavs on the other hand have played very well to open the season. The offense is flowing better than anyone projected, and the defense is much better with the additions up front. This is a team with confidence right now, and the line is simply too high to not back the surprising Cavs at home.

PLAY CLEVELAND

752 Wisconsin at Michigan State

The Badgers have been a fan favorite this year, coming in with a 7-1 record. The only loss coming at Marquette, the lone road game on the schedule. Wisconsin put up great scoring numbers in non-conference play, but had just 65 on the road at Marquette, and 67 of the 120 scored vs Nebraska in the first conference game of the season. 

Michigan State sits at 6-1, but 0-1 in the Big Ten after losing to an improved Northwestern on the road Sunday. With road games on deck against Minnesota and Nebraska, this is a very important game for the Spartans. Teams in conference play know all about what you are trying to run offensively, which is why unders are preferred early in conference play. With the importance of this game, along with the pace rating of 324 for the Badgers, we expect this to be a low scoring affair.

PLAY UNDER

551 Charlotte at Cleveland

The Cavaliers will have a tough time scoring tonight without Kevin Love and its key sixth man. Colin Sexton is coming off an ankle injury in the final preseason game, so he likely won’t be 100%. 

Charlotte addition Gordon Hayward is expected to play after coming back from a broken finger. The addition of LaMelo Ball should make this team a step better than a season ago. With little to no home court advantage we prefer the team on the rise.

PLAY CHARLOTTE

673 North Carolina at NC State

The Tar Heels have played very well in this series as the coaching edge has definitely been with North Carolina. We backed the Tar Heels earlier in the week with success, and we feel the inside area will be dominated by the visitor. Keep in mind the Tar Heels rank 5th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. This team is also 20th in defensive adjusted efficiency. 

The Wolfpack doesn’t have very good guard play, and they are a bit beat up heading into what should be a physical contest. State has benefited from an easy slate, playing only one team ranking in the top 200. That was against St Louis, and the Wolfpack lost that game by 11.

PLAY NORTH CAROLINA

855 UMKC at Minnesota

Kansas City enters play at 2-2 on the season and this is a major step up in class for the Roos. But this team is well rested having not played since November 30th, and is very slow paced. Ranking 309th in adjusted tempo, which is big when taking on a team as a double digit underdog.

Minnesota enters with a perfect 5-0 record, but other than the 30 point opening night win over Green Bay, this team hasn’t looked overly impressive. The last three games were home wins over Boston College in overtime, a nine point victory over North Dakota, and a three point win hosting Loyola Marymount. This is a huge sandwich game after the overtime win over BC on Tuesday, and a huge conference matchup with Illinois next Tuesday. This really could be the toughest scheduling spot of the season for the Golden Gophers. 

PLAY UMKC

637 Southern Utah at Utah Valley

The Thunderbirds are flying high off back to back wins over a good Montana squad. Todd Simon and Southern Utah are off back to back 17 win seasons, and look improved again with a 3-1 start to the season. This despite allowing 43.5% shooting from beyond the arc. This is a veteran team with nine upperclassmen. 

Utah Valley is projected to be slightly higher in the standings than Chicago State. That should tell you all you need to know about the Wolverines. This club returns zero starters from a team that won just 11 games a season ago. They only have one senior on the roster, as this is obviously a young group. They were able to beat two non-division one programs, but lost to BYU by 22. With a 2-1 record this will be the last time we see the Wolverines over .500 this season. They rank 330th in adjusted offensive efficiency, shooting just 37.2% from 2 point range. Clear class difference here.

PLAY SOUTHERN UTAH

623 Eastern Illinois at Evansville

The Panthers started the year with losses to big boys Wisconsin, Marquette and Dayton, but won the last two when stepping down in class. Eastern won 17 games a year ago under Jay Spoonhour, and the schedule gets easier from here on out. The Panthers have an amazing seven seniors on the roster, with just two underclassmen. 

Evansville was winless in the Missouri Valley Conference last year, and brings back four starters. Is that good or bad? So far, bad would be your answer, as the club has dropped three straight to start the season. Coming off a heartbreaking double overtime loss to Tennessee Martin, we simply can’t see this club fully focused here. The goal from Todd Lickliter was to improve the defense, but the club currently ranks 273rd in adjusted defensive efficiency. Give us the more talented senior laden Panthers.

PLAY EASTERN ILLINOIS

656 Rider at Syracuse

The Broncs won 18 games last year but have been devastated by graduation and transfers. In fact, the team will have all five new starters today in its first game of the season. Coach Kevin Baggett came out this week and said his team just isn’t ready to compete.

Syracuse beat us earlier in the week and we were very impressed. This is a team that is known for its defense and should have little problem facing a team coming out of Covid.

PLAY SYRACUSE

765 UTSA at Oklahoma

The Roadrunners have an excellent backcourt which is willing to run with the Sooners. Adjusted tempo ranking 24th, Assist Rate of 15th and a good free-throw shooting squad ranking 8th in the country. Steve Henson is a Lon Kruger former assistant. 

Oklahoma is tipping off its season here before stepping up in class against TCU and Xavier. With three sophomores and two freshmen on the team we can see the coaching staff letting the squad play a bit more street ball here. Roll out the ball and see what you have if you will. Should be a fun atmosphere in this one. 

PLAY OVER

751 Connecticut & USC

Major step up game for the Huskies who have faced just Central Connecticut and Hartford. That said, we really feel the elite Husky guards should dominate this contest. UConn enters this game ranked 14th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. 

USC is big underneath which is the strength of the team, but UConn has enough height to keep the Trojans off the boards. USC is coming off a blowout victory over BYU, an impressive win. But the Cougars simply don’t have the athleticism that the Huskies have. Off a 3-0 start and the hype from the BYU victory, USC comes into this contest a bit overrated.

PLAY CONNECTICUT

307102 Houston Baptist at Arizona State

The Huskies went 4-25 last year and 0-9 when not playing a league participant. They are expected to once again bring up the rear of the Southland Conference. This is a team that lacks talent and depth, two traits that don’t work against this fast paced and talented Sun Devils squad.

Arizona State is taking a huge step down in class after facing Rhode Island and Villanova. Off a loss in which it scored just 74 points, we can see this team continuing to score at win regardless of the lead. Lay it in a clear talent and depth mismatch.

PLAY ARIZONA STATE

747 Denver and Utah

The Jazz have been a major surprise thus far especially considering the lack of depth. But it’s one thing to be an underdog. It’s something totally different to be the team with the 2-1 series lead and now be a solid favorite. Last meeting the series was tied and Utah went off as a single digit favorite. Now Denver has its back to the wall and is getting more points? Just can’t see how anything but that single game outcome has moved this line two full points. Look for the Nuggets best effort tonight.

PLAY DENVER

883 Boise State & San Diego State in Vegas

The Aztecs are 18 of 43 from deep in the two meetings with the Broncos. This against a Boise State defense that ranks 18th in the country defending the perimeter. While the two losses were by 18 and 17 points, the Broncos are closer in talent than what those scores represented. Boise is 11th in the nation in keeping the opposition off the offensive boards. That’s big against this San Diego State team. The Broncos have struggled defending down low for most of the year, yet held UNLV to 9 of 30 shooting last night from 2 point range. 

The Aztecs have clearly struggled on the offensive glass the last two months, so it’s likely one an done offensively. Unless this team remains hot from the outside we can’t see how this game isn’t close.

PLAY BOISE STATE

533 Cleveland at New Orleans

Cavaliers are having success since changing coaches as the team is learning to play for each other. It’s a squad playing with confidence right now that wasn’t happening earlier in the season.

The Pelicans aren’t used to being a sizable favorite, as this is just the second time all season New Orleans has laid double digits. This is an LA Lakers sandwich for the team that lost Davis before the season. Have to feel this will be a letdown spot for the host.

PLAY CLEVELAND

502 Philadelphia at Cleveland

The Sixers are treading water right now with a 13-12 record as of late. This is a club that has been great at home but struggles on the road. Philadelphia is just 2-12 straight up as of late on the road. The two victories were at New York by 3 and Brooklyn by 6. Philadelphia is in the midst of playing 10 straight games in different cities. Not playing back to back at home until mid-March.

Cleveland has won 3 of its last 4 contests with the only loss coming at Miami, in the second game of a back to back situation. The way the Cavs are built right now it has one of the deepest and talented front courts in the league. A great matchup here against Embiid, with Simmons still on the sideline. Gotta fade the Sixers here as this team struggles mightily on the road.

PLAY CLEVELAND

873 Louisville at Florida State

The Cardinals are looking to avenge a 78-65 home loss earlier in the season. That was the only home loss this year. In that game the Seminoles dominated in the paint shooting 21-35 from 2 point range, while the Cardinals shot 16 of 43. That’s very unusual for this club that actually ranks 29th in defending inside the perimeter. 

Florida State hasn’t lost here all season, but we rate Louisville as the better team. We will take the points here with the avenging Cardinals.

PLAY LOUISVILLE

786 Cal Riverside at Cal Poly

The Highlanders haven’t won a road game since January 9th. This team has lost five straight games and 8 of 10 overall. During this five game run the offense has produced a high of 59 points in regulation.

The last time these two met the Highlanders won 97-64, giving the Mustangs their worst loss of the season. I’m sure this team has this game circled, especially with three likely losses to end the season. Simply don’t trust Cal Riverside to lay points on the road.

PLAY CAL POLY

803 Texas A&M at Alabama

Too many points to give this Aggies team who are 3-3 SU on the road this season. A&M has no 3 point game whatsoever ranking 351st in the nation. But 3 point defense is a strength for the Tide, which will likely be wasted in this matchup. The visitor ranks 29th in defensive turnover rate and is a solid offensive rebounding squad. It does defend well from long distance. 

Alabama just got revenge on LSU on Saturday and have tough games at Mississippi and Mississippi State on deck. Before that 88-82 victory over the Tigers, the team played back to back overtime games against Auburn and Georgia. And played a one point game against Tennessee and a four point contest with Arkansas. So this is clearly a flat spot on the schedule for the host. 

PLAY TEXAS A&M

526 Portland at Utah

The Blazers are playing great ball right now winning 5 of 6 including a 124-107 home win over these Jazz. But Portland is playing its second game of a back to back and third game in four days. To make matters worse they played the first game in altitude at Denver, flew home to host the Spurs, and now play unrested in altitude again. The Blazers are just 2-6 ATS playing in Utah.

Unlike the Blazers the Jazz are really struggling right now having lost five straight games, including two straight on this normally strong home court. Utah is well rested having played just once in the past five days. The Jazz are the better team desperate for a win while Portland is in a terrible scheduling situation. There is a reason why this line seems high, because it should be even higher.

PLAY UTAH

506 Philadelphia at Milwaukee

The Sixers will be shorthanded tonight as the trade assets will be out of the lineup. In the only other meeting this season Philadelphia pounded the Bucks 121-109 on Christmas Day. 

Milwaukee was a virtual no show in that nationally televised game. So we expect the Bucks to have this game circled. This is the only game in a three game span for the host, while Philadelphia hosts Memphis tomorrow. If the Sixers fall behind early with this limited bench, look for Philadelphia to raise the white flag late.

PLAY MILWAUKEE

632 Xavier at DePaul

The Musketeers had been cruising to an 11-2 record before Big East play. Now with the tougher schedule Xavier has dropped 5 of its last 7. The Saturday win at Seton Hall was just the second straight up road win of the season. While Xavier’s defense has traveled well this team ranks 289th in the nation in three point accuracy. That and a 319th ranked free throw percentage will likely come in to play here.

Very similar to Xavier, DePaul feasted on non-conference competition, but sits at 1-8 in Big East play. But only two of those defeats came by double digits. This is a team on a four game losing streak that has road trips to Georgetown and Creighton on deck. This is a must win game for the host, and we expect its best effort of the conference season.

PLAY DEPAUL

861 North Carolina at Florida State

Now that the Tar Heels are getting healthy we want to look to back North Carolina in these type of situations. While the Tar Heels have gotten better, the wins haven’t come around. Two overtime losses and a one point loss to Boston College last time out keep this team out of the press. But that gives us plenty of value here against a #5 rated team we have ranked 20th. 

While Florida State is 9-3 SU against top 100 opposition, wins have come by margins of 3, 3, 4 and 1 point. This is a team that is getting favorable bounces going 7-2 in close games. The Tar Heels have the talent to take this to the wire.

PLAY NORTH CAROLINA

516 Minnesota at LA Clippers

The Timberwolves are on a ten game losing streak with 5 of the last 6 losses coming at home. This is a team that started the season well but has had separate 10 and 11 game losing streaks since December. Minnesota is 1-15 SU on the season vs top 10 opponents.

The Clippers are coming off an embarrassing showing in a 21 point home loss to the Kings. After the game the players were very testy with the media, so we would expect a solid showing. LA is also 22-7 ATS off a SU loss. Lay it!

PLAY LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

513 Portland at LA Lakers

The Blazers are playing a faster pace as of late with 20.4 more points the last five than the season average. Offensively the Blazers have scored 125, 139, 125 and 129 the last four outings. In two previous meetings these two combined for 249 and 248. 

The Lakers had its lowest scoring output of the season last time out in a 108-91 loss to Philadelphia. With tonight being a celebration of Kobe, I would expect this game to be played free and easy. Tonight will be a spectacle and we expect a lot of scoring.

PLAY OVER

847 Baylor at Iowa State

Surprised this number is available considering how dominant the Bears have been on the road. Undefeated on true road courts this season, and no lookahead with TCU at home on Saturday. Baylor beat Iowa State at home 68-55 just two weeks ago. The Bears rank 21st in adjusted offensive efficiency and 4th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Baylor is dominant on the offensive boards at 5th in the country. 

Iowa State has already lost three times at home this season, including a defeat to Florida A&M. This squad has also lost 6 of 8 overall with the wins coming against the Oklahoma schools. While the offense is 41st in adjusted offensive efficiency, the defense ranks 140th. The Cyclones are 291st keeping the opposition off the offensive glass. That is the telling stat here as the Bears should dominate down low offensively. This is a cheap number.

PLAY BAYLOR

862 St Peters at Rider

The Peacocks have dropped 3 of 4 as of late but blew out Quinnipiac on the road last Saturday. Now 3-6 SU on the road this season. Saint Peter’s is an excellent offensive rebounding team ranking 8th in the country. But very weak offensively at 331st in effective field goal percentage, and bad holding onto the ball at 348th. 

The Broncs of Rider have lost 6 of 8 and sit at 3-4 in conference. This looks like a must win game for the host. Rider is 4-1 SU at home this year with the lone loss being the last time it played at Alumni Gymnasium. While St Peter’s is great in offensive rebounding, that plays directly into what Rider does best, hit the glass. The Broncs are 60th in offensive rebounding, and 8th in the country keeping opposing teams off the offensive glass. Rider is also extremely good getting to the line and keeping opponents from getting to the strike. We look for Rider to take advantage of a solid home court here and get back in the win column.

PLAY RIDER

782 Georgetown at Xavier

Hoyas have dropped 4 of 6 lately, along with three straight on the road. Georgetown ranks 288th defending the three, which is always a concern on the road.

At 1-4 in conference and off three straight losses, you know you will get a full effort from the host. Really like this defense which ranks 38th defending the three, and 68th against 2 point attempts. We expect this Xavier defense to clamp down and get this team back in the win column.

PLAY XAVIER

519 LA Lakers at Boston

Lakers enter play having won 10 of 11. Only loss was a one point defeat at the hands of the Magic. LA is rested having only played once the past four days.

The Celtics have not only lost 6 of 8, but have held the majority lead in 3 of those contests. On the season Boston has lead for the majority of games 25 times, so you can tell this team is struggling right now. 

PLAY LA LAKERS

510 Chicago at Milwaukee

The Bulls have lost all three meetings with the Bucks this season. And it makes all the sense in the world. Chicago is a young team that finds was to lose, while the Bucks find ways to win. We like the talent on this Chicago roster, but until it plays much more consistently it’s hard to back.

Milwaukee has not only won its last six games, but have held an average of a double digit lead in five straight. And still the coaching staff complained about its lack of discipline in giving away big leads. That won’t be the case here, especially with the next three days off.

PLAY MILWAUKEE

807 Utah at Arizona

The Utes have lost 4 of its last 5 games. But those contests were against San Diego State, Oregon, Colorado and Arizona, all top 20 programs. Now the Utes step down in class to take on an Arizona State team we rank 94th in the nation. Utah is 36th in the country in offensive effective field goal percentage, and 4th in defensive free throw rating. This is a quality team despite the overall record.

Arizona State has yet to beat a team in the top 55, so we can’t see this team pulling away from Utah. Especially considering its the 297th shooting 3 point percentage unit.

PLAY UTAH

770 Indiana at Nebraska

The Hoosiers have dropped 3 of its last 5 and sit at 3-3 in league play. Indiana is also winless on the road this season dropping all three contests. This club is 307th in the country in 3 point shooting, which makes it tough to lay a number with on the road.

Nebraska is 7th in the nation in offensive turnover percentage, so the Hoosiers will not get many easy baskets. At 2-4 in conference this is a must win game for the Huskers with trips to Wisconsin and Rutgers on deck.

PLAY NEBRASKA

677 Nebraska Omaha at Denver

Omaha is a team that lives and dies by the perimeter. Ranking 68th in 3 point shooting and 301st in defending the three. This club is 3-1 in conference play with the lone loss coming last time out at South Dakota, a 91-81 defeat. While many will look at the 1-8 SU record on the road. A closer look sees that this team has been extremely tested playing at Wichita State, Dayton, St Mary’s and Arizona.

Denver at 4-15 is a bad basketball team. Especially on the offensive end of the court. Ranking 339th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 350th in offensive rebounding percentage. This is a get right game for the visitor.

PLAY NEBRASKA OMAHA

620 Detroit at Green Bay

The Titans have just one road victory on the season. That win came on Thursday as Detroit beat Milwaukee 90-84. This is a club that ranks badly in just about every individual category. Including 312th in defensive adjusted efficiency and 320th in offensive effective field goal percentage. 

Green Bay doesn’t turn the ball over, ranking 13th in the nation. It’s also a very good shooting team at 46th in 3 point accuracy. We look for the Phoenix to use their solid free throw shooting to extend a second half lead.

PLAY GREEN BAY

859 Furman at Wofford

Big fan of this Furman offense which ranks 15th in effective field goal percentage. It’s also a team that forces turnovers but doesn’t turn the ball over themselves. This club dominates in the paint ranking 5th in the nation in 2 point shooting percentage.

Wofford has a solid home court advantage, but ranks 300th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Going up against this Furman offense won’t be easy. The host also struggles to get to the line ranking 318th, so late game foul shots may not be there in a close game.

PLAY FURMAN

637 Southern Illinois at Loyola Chicago

The visitor has really struggled on the road this season, but that said this line is extremely high. Coming off a blowout loss at Bradley, we find great value on the underdog here.

At 7-2 SU at home and coming off a 34 point domination of Evansville, this line is extremely inflated. Value play on the dog here.

PLAY SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

504 Detroit at Boston

Want no part of the Pistons right now who have dropped 12 of 15 ATS as of late. The team has only held the majority lead against the weaklings of Washington, Golden State and Cleveland. 

Boston has righted the ship with back to back solid wins, and have a trip to Milwaukee on deck. That may normally mean a lookahead, but we like this deep Boston squad.

PLAY BOSTON

633 DePaul at Villanova

The Blue Demons have started conference play 0-3. But have solid wins over Iowa, Minnesota and Texas Tech on the season. Defense travels and this Dave Leitao team is highly ranked in that regard.

Villanove is 12-3 and looks solid once again, but this club doesn’t win by margins. Overall 4 of the last 5 wins have come by margins of 5, 6, 1 and 8 points. DePaul has the ability to slow down this Wildcat offense.

PLAY DEPAUL

848 Arizona at Oregon State

The Wildcats started the year impressively with 9 straight victories, including wins over Illinois and New Mexico State. But Arizona has struggled as of late dropping 4 of its last 6 games. They are just 2-4 against top 100 opposition. This club is also winless on the road after dropping an overtime decision at Oregon on Thursday.

Oregon State has one home loss this season, last time out against Arizona State. With a 1-2 conference record and a trip to Washington on deck, this is a must have game for the host. The Beavers are a terrific offensive team that ranks 28th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. We look for the host to pull the upset.

PLAY OREGON STATE

761 Kansas State at Texas

This Kansas State defense travels. Ranking 40th in adjusted Efficiency, and 15th in defensive turnover percentage. This is a winless team in conference action.

We just can’t trust Texas in the roll of a favorite. Especially in late game situations. The Longhorns are 314th in the country in free throw shooting, and 342nd drawing fouls. Texas is 1-4 straight up against top 100 opposition. 

PLAY KANSAS STATE

784 Chicago State at UT Rio Grande Valley

When you are a child your parents always tell you, if you can’t say something good about someone, don’t say anything. Well, Chicago state is 48th in the country in getting to the line and 71st in free throw percentage. So there you go.

Grand Valley is 5-10 on the season and are a large favorite here. But this club has played nine teams rated in the top 200 in the country. The host has only lost once on this floor all season. While the records are somewhat similar, the talent advantage is sizable.

PLAY UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY

744 Texas Tech at West Virginia

The Red Raiders have just two wins all season against top 100 opposition. They are also winless on the road this year as this is only the second true road game of the season for Texas Tech.

West Virginia is undefeated at home with every game being decided by 5 points or more. This is also the first home game for the Mountaineers on four weeks, so we should get a really fired up crowd.

PLAY WEST VIRGINIA