747 Denver and Utah

The Jazz have been a major surprise thus far especially considering the lack of depth. But it’s one thing to be an underdog. It’s something totally different to be the team with the 2-1 series lead and now be a solid favorite. Last meeting the series was tied and Utah went off as a single digit favorite. Now Denver has its back to the wall and is getting more points? Just can’t see how anything but that single game outcome has moved this line two full points. Look for the Nuggets best effort tonight.

PLAY DENVER

883 Boise State & San Diego State in Vegas

The Aztecs are 18 of 43 from deep in the two meetings with the Broncos. This against a Boise State defense that ranks 18th in the country defending the perimeter. While the two losses were by 18 and 17 points, the Broncos are closer in talent than what those scores represented. Boise is 11th in the nation in keeping the opposition off the offensive boards. That’s big against this San Diego State team. The Broncos have struggled defending down low for most of the year, yet held UNLV to 9 of 30 shooting last night from 2 point range. 

The Aztecs have clearly struggled on the offensive glass the last two months, so it’s likely one an done offensively. Unless this team remains hot from the outside we can’t see how this game isn’t close.

PLAY BOISE STATE

533 Cleveland at New Orleans

Cavaliers are having success since changing coaches as the team is learning to play for each other. It’s a squad playing with confidence right now that wasn’t happening earlier in the season.

The Pelicans aren’t used to being a sizable favorite, as this is just the second time all season New Orleans has laid double digits. This is an LA Lakers sandwich for the team that lost Davis before the season. Have to feel this will be a letdown spot for the host.

PLAY CLEVELAND

502 Philadelphia at Cleveland

The Sixers are treading water right now with a 13-12 record as of late. This is a club that has been great at home but struggles on the road. Philadelphia is just 2-12 straight up as of late on the road. The two victories were at New York by 3 and Brooklyn by 6. Philadelphia is in the midst of playing 10 straight games in different cities. Not playing back to back at home until mid-March.

Cleveland has won 3 of its last 4 contests with the only loss coming at Miami, in the second game of a back to back situation. The way the Cavs are built right now it has one of the deepest and talented front courts in the league. A great matchup here against Embiid, with Simmons still on the sideline. Gotta fade the Sixers here as this team struggles mightily on the road.

PLAY CLEVELAND

873 Louisville at Florida State

The Cardinals are looking to avenge a 78-65 home loss earlier in the season. That was the only home loss this year. In that game the Seminoles dominated in the paint shooting 21-35 from 2 point range, while the Cardinals shot 16 of 43. That’s very unusual for this club that actually ranks 29th in defending inside the perimeter. 

Florida State hasn’t lost here all season, but we rate Louisville as the better team. We will take the points here with the avenging Cardinals.

PLAY LOUISVILLE

786 Cal Riverside at Cal Poly

The Highlanders haven’t won a road game since January 9th. This team has lost five straight games and 8 of 10 overall. During this five game run the offense has produced a high of 59 points in regulation.

The last time these two met the Highlanders won 97-64, giving the Mustangs their worst loss of the season. I’m sure this team has this game circled, especially with three likely losses to end the season. Simply don’t trust Cal Riverside to lay points on the road.

PLAY CAL POLY

803 Texas A&M at Alabama

Too many points to give this Aggies team who are 3-3 SU on the road this season. A&M has no 3 point game whatsoever ranking 351st in the nation. But 3 point defense is a strength for the Tide, which will likely be wasted in this matchup. The visitor ranks 29th in defensive turnover rate and is a solid offensive rebounding squad. It does defend well from long distance. 

Alabama just got revenge on LSU on Saturday and have tough games at Mississippi and Mississippi State on deck. Before that 88-82 victory over the Tigers, the team played back to back overtime games against Auburn and Georgia. And played a one point game against Tennessee and a four point contest with Arkansas. So this is clearly a flat spot on the schedule for the host. 

PLAY TEXAS A&M

526 Portland at Utah

The Blazers are playing great ball right now winning 5 of 6 including a 124-107 home win over these Jazz. But Portland is playing its second game of a back to back and third game in four days. To make matters worse they played the first game in altitude at Denver, flew home to host the Spurs, and now play unrested in altitude again. The Blazers are just 2-6 ATS playing in Utah.

Unlike the Blazers the Jazz are really struggling right now having lost five straight games, including two straight on this normally strong home court. Utah is well rested having played just once in the past five days. The Jazz are the better team desperate for a win while Portland is in a terrible scheduling situation. There is a reason why this line seems high, because it should be even higher.

PLAY UTAH

506 Philadelphia at Milwaukee

The Sixers will be shorthanded tonight as the trade assets will be out of the lineup. In the only other meeting this season Philadelphia pounded the Bucks 121-109 on Christmas Day. 

Milwaukee was a virtual no show in that nationally televised game. So we expect the Bucks to have this game circled. This is the only game in a three game span for the host, while Philadelphia hosts Memphis tomorrow. If the Sixers fall behind early with this limited bench, look for Philadelphia to raise the white flag late.

PLAY MILWAUKEE

632 Xavier at DePaul

The Musketeers had been cruising to an 11-2 record before Big East play. Now with the tougher schedule Xavier has dropped 5 of its last 7. The Saturday win at Seton Hall was just the second straight up road win of the season. While Xavier’s defense has traveled well this team ranks 289th in the nation in three point accuracy. That and a 319th ranked free throw percentage will likely come in to play here.

Very similar to Xavier, DePaul feasted on non-conference competition, but sits at 1-8 in Big East play. But only two of those defeats came by double digits. This is a team on a four game losing streak that has road trips to Georgetown and Creighton on deck. This is a must win game for the host, and we expect its best effort of the conference season.

PLAY DEPAUL

861 North Carolina at Florida State

Now that the Tar Heels are getting healthy we want to look to back North Carolina in these type of situations. While the Tar Heels have gotten better, the wins haven’t come around. Two overtime losses and a one point loss to Boston College last time out keep this team out of the press. But that gives us plenty of value here against a #5 rated team we have ranked 20th. 

While Florida State is 9-3 SU against top 100 opposition, wins have come by margins of 3, 3, 4 and 1 point. This is a team that is getting favorable bounces going 7-2 in close games. The Tar Heels have the talent to take this to the wire.

PLAY NORTH CAROLINA

516 Minnesota at LA Clippers

The Timberwolves are on a ten game losing streak with 5 of the last 6 losses coming at home. This is a team that started the season well but has had separate 10 and 11 game losing streaks since December. Minnesota is 1-15 SU on the season vs top 10 opponents.

The Clippers are coming off an embarrassing showing in a 21 point home loss to the Kings. After the game the players were very testy with the media, so we would expect a solid showing. LA is also 22-7 ATS off a SU loss. Lay it!

PLAY LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

513 Portland at LA Lakers

The Blazers are playing a faster pace as of late with 20.4 more points the last five than the season average. Offensively the Blazers have scored 125, 139, 125 and 129 the last four outings. In two previous meetings these two combined for 249 and 248. 

The Lakers had its lowest scoring output of the season last time out in a 108-91 loss to Philadelphia. With tonight being a celebration of Kobe, I would expect this game to be played free and easy. Tonight will be a spectacle and we expect a lot of scoring.

PLAY OVER

847 Baylor at Iowa State

Surprised this number is available considering how dominant the Bears have been on the road. Undefeated on true road courts this season, and no lookahead with TCU at home on Saturday. Baylor beat Iowa State at home 68-55 just two weeks ago. The Bears rank 21st in adjusted offensive efficiency and 4th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Baylor is dominant on the offensive boards at 5th in the country. 

Iowa State has already lost three times at home this season, including a defeat to Florida A&M. This squad has also lost 6 of 8 overall with the wins coming against the Oklahoma schools. While the offense is 41st in adjusted offensive efficiency, the defense ranks 140th. The Cyclones are 291st keeping the opposition off the offensive glass. That is the telling stat here as the Bears should dominate down low offensively. This is a cheap number.

PLAY BAYLOR

862 St Peters at Rider

The Peacocks have dropped 3 of 4 as of late but blew out Quinnipiac on the road last Saturday. Now 3-6 SU on the road this season. Saint Peter’s is an excellent offensive rebounding team ranking 8th in the country. But very weak offensively at 331st in effective field goal percentage, and bad holding onto the ball at 348th. 

The Broncs of Rider have lost 6 of 8 and sit at 3-4 in conference. This looks like a must win game for the host. Rider is 4-1 SU at home this year with the lone loss being the last time it played at Alumni Gymnasium. While St Peter’s is great in offensive rebounding, that plays directly into what Rider does best, hit the glass. The Broncs are 60th in offensive rebounding, and 8th in the country keeping opposing teams off the offensive glass. Rider is also extremely good getting to the line and keeping opponents from getting to the strike. We look for Rider to take advantage of a solid home court here and get back in the win column.

PLAY RIDER

782 Georgetown at Xavier

Hoyas have dropped 4 of 6 lately, along with three straight on the road. Georgetown ranks 288th defending the three, which is always a concern on the road.

At 1-4 in conference and off three straight losses, you know you will get a full effort from the host. Really like this defense which ranks 38th defending the three, and 68th against 2 point attempts. We expect this Xavier defense to clamp down and get this team back in the win column.

PLAY XAVIER

519 LA Lakers at Boston

Lakers enter play having won 10 of 11. Only loss was a one point defeat at the hands of the Magic. LA is rested having only played once the past four days.

The Celtics have not only lost 6 of 8, but have held the majority lead in 3 of those contests. On the season Boston has lead for the majority of games 25 times, so you can tell this team is struggling right now. 

PLAY LA LAKERS

510 Chicago at Milwaukee

The Bulls have lost all three meetings with the Bucks this season. And it makes all the sense in the world. Chicago is a young team that finds was to lose, while the Bucks find ways to win. We like the talent on this Chicago roster, but until it plays much more consistently it’s hard to back.

Milwaukee has not only won its last six games, but have held an average of a double digit lead in five straight. And still the coaching staff complained about its lack of discipline in giving away big leads. That won’t be the case here, especially with the next three days off.

PLAY MILWAUKEE

807 Utah at Arizona

The Utes have lost 4 of its last 5 games. But those contests were against San Diego State, Oregon, Colorado and Arizona, all top 20 programs. Now the Utes step down in class to take on an Arizona State team we rank 94th in the nation. Utah is 36th in the country in offensive effective field goal percentage, and 4th in defensive free throw rating. This is a quality team despite the overall record.

Arizona State has yet to beat a team in the top 55, so we can’t see this team pulling away from Utah. Especially considering its the 297th shooting 3 point percentage unit.

PLAY UTAH

770 Indiana at Nebraska

The Hoosiers have dropped 3 of its last 5 and sit at 3-3 in league play. Indiana is also winless on the road this season dropping all three contests. This club is 307th in the country in 3 point shooting, which makes it tough to lay a number with on the road.

Nebraska is 7th in the nation in offensive turnover percentage, so the Hoosiers will not get many easy baskets. At 2-4 in conference this is a must win game for the Huskers with trips to Wisconsin and Rutgers on deck.

PLAY NEBRASKA

677 Nebraska Omaha at Denver

Omaha is a team that lives and dies by the perimeter. Ranking 68th in 3 point shooting and 301st in defending the three. This club is 3-1 in conference play with the lone loss coming last time out at South Dakota, a 91-81 defeat. While many will look at the 1-8 SU record on the road. A closer look sees that this team has been extremely tested playing at Wichita State, Dayton, St Mary’s and Arizona.

Denver at 4-15 is a bad basketball team. Especially on the offensive end of the court. Ranking 339th in offensive adjusted efficiency and 350th in offensive rebounding percentage. This is a get right game for the visitor.

PLAY NEBRASKA OMAHA

620 Detroit at Green Bay

The Titans have just one road victory on the season. That win came on Thursday as Detroit beat Milwaukee 90-84. This is a club that ranks badly in just about every individual category. Including 312th in defensive adjusted efficiency and 320th in offensive effective field goal percentage. 

Green Bay doesn’t turn the ball over, ranking 13th in the nation. It’s also a very good shooting team at 46th in 3 point accuracy. We look for the Phoenix to use their solid free throw shooting to extend a second half lead.

PLAY GREEN BAY

859 Furman at Wofford

Big fan of this Furman offense which ranks 15th in effective field goal percentage. It’s also a team that forces turnovers but doesn’t turn the ball over themselves. This club dominates in the paint ranking 5th in the nation in 2 point shooting percentage.

Wofford has a solid home court advantage, but ranks 300th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Going up against this Furman offense won’t be easy. The host also struggles to get to the line ranking 318th, so late game foul shots may not be there in a close game.

PLAY FURMAN

637 Southern Illinois at Loyola Chicago

The visitor has really struggled on the road this season, but that said this line is extremely high. Coming off a blowout loss at Bradley, we find great value on the underdog here.

At 7-2 SU at home and coming off a 34 point domination of Evansville, this line is extremely inflated. Value play on the dog here.

PLAY SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

504 Detroit at Boston

Want no part of the Pistons right now who have dropped 12 of 15 ATS as of late. The team has only held the majority lead against the weaklings of Washington, Golden State and Cleveland. 

Boston has righted the ship with back to back solid wins, and have a trip to Milwaukee on deck. That may normally mean a lookahead, but we like this deep Boston squad.

PLAY BOSTON

633 DePaul at Villanova

The Blue Demons have started conference play 0-3. But have solid wins over Iowa, Minnesota and Texas Tech on the season. Defense travels and this Dave Leitao team is highly ranked in that regard.

Villanove is 12-3 and looks solid once again, but this club doesn’t win by margins. Overall 4 of the last 5 wins have come by margins of 5, 6, 1 and 8 points. DePaul has the ability to slow down this Wildcat offense.

PLAY DEPAUL

848 Arizona at Oregon State

The Wildcats started the year impressively with 9 straight victories, including wins over Illinois and New Mexico State. But Arizona has struggled as of late dropping 4 of its last 6 games. They are just 2-4 against top 100 opposition. This club is also winless on the road after dropping an overtime decision at Oregon on Thursday.

Oregon State has one home loss this season, last time out against Arizona State. With a 1-2 conference record and a trip to Washington on deck, this is a must have game for the host. The Beavers are a terrific offensive team that ranks 28th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. We look for the host to pull the upset.

PLAY OREGON STATE

761 Kansas State at Texas

This Kansas State defense travels. Ranking 40th in adjusted Efficiency, and 15th in defensive turnover percentage. This is a winless team in conference action.

We just can’t trust Texas in the roll of a favorite. Especially in late game situations. The Longhorns are 314th in the country in free throw shooting, and 342nd drawing fouls. Texas is 1-4 straight up against top 100 opposition. 

PLAY KANSAS STATE

784 Chicago State at UT Rio Grande Valley

When you are a child your parents always tell you, if you can’t say something good about someone, don’t say anything. Well, Chicago state is 48th in the country in getting to the line and 71st in free throw percentage. So there you go.

Grand Valley is 5-10 on the season and are a large favorite here. But this club has played nine teams rated in the top 200 in the country. The host has only lost once on this floor all season. While the records are somewhat similar, the talent advantage is sizable.

PLAY UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY

744 Texas Tech at West Virginia

The Red Raiders have just two wins all season against top 100 opposition. They are also winless on the road this year as this is only the second true road game of the season for Texas Tech.

West Virginia is undefeated at home with every game being decided by 5 points or more. This is also the first home game for the Mountaineers on four weeks, so we should get a really fired up crowd.

PLAY WEST VIRGINIA

659 Oakland at Cleveland State

Oakland has dropped 7 of 8 but really step down in class against the Vikings. It beat a similar Detroit team by 9 in late December.

Cleveland State is 3-1 in conference but have feasted on the other bottom tier teams in the league. Cleveland State is just 4-3 at home and ranks in the 330th range in all offensive categories.

PLAY OAKLAND

640 UL Monroe at Georgia State

Monroe has been terrible on the road with an 0-6 mark. The closest contest was a six point loss at Texas A&M. This squad struggles turning the ball over ranking 311th in the country. ULM is a good shooting team fro the perimeter but that’s something that hasn’t helped them on the road.

Georgia State is not only great from 3 point range at 12th in the nation, but are 24th in defending from the perimeter. On an undefeated home court we look for a blowout.

PLAY GEORGIA STATE

604 DePaul at St Johns

DePaul has the better record, but the host is the better team. The Blue Demons feasted on questionable competition in the non-conference season. 

Mike Anderson’s squad specializes in taking care of the ball. Ranking 27th in not turning the ball over, and 22nd in forcing turnovers. This is also a team in the top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Starting the conference season at 0-3 this becomes a very important game for the host. Let’s lay the small  number with St Johns.

PLAY ST JOHNS

833 Wright State at IUPUI

Wright State takes good care of the ball and is a solid offensive rebounding team. This club is unedited in true road games this season.

The host has really struggled this year when stepping up in class. Against top 11 opposition this team has lost to Butler by 33, Bradley by 34, Loyola Chicago by 23 and Ball State by 48. 

PLAY WRIGHT STATE

654 Baylor at Texas Tech

The Bears are 11-1 on the season and have run off 10 straight winners. But it’s time to really see what Baylor is made of with back to back games against Texas Tech and Kansas. This is also the first true road game of the season for the Bears.

The Red Raiders dropped three in a row earlier, with two coming in overtime. But this club gets better as the season goes on and we love the Texas Tech coaching staff. After already playing three top 30 teams, we expect the Red Raiders to be primed. 

PLAY TEXAS TECH 

854 UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina

Simply can’t trust Monroe to score enough away from home. On the season this team has produced 57, 59, 45 and 36 points away from home. Too many turnovers and a poor offensive efficiency has led to this 6-7 overall record.

Coastal ranks 10th in the country in 3 point percentage and is an excellent offensive rebounding team. Let’s lay it with the host.

PLAY COASTAL CAROLINA

509 Indiana at Atlanta

Pacers have dropped 3 of 4 as of late but trips to Atlanta and Charlotte should get this team right. Indiana is rested while Atlanta played yesterday in Boston. The Hawks have only covered once in a back to back situation this year, with more results ending in blowouts. With Collins expected out of the lineup for Atlanta tonight, we will back the Pacers to get back on track.

PLAY INDIANA

514 San Antonio at Memphis

Wrong team favored in our opinion as the Spurs have struggled on the road all season. Both teams are playing its third game in four days. Memphis already won in San Antonio earlier in the season. Grizzlies have finished with the average lead in 5 of 7 games overall. Memphis is playing the much better ball.

PLAY MEMPHIS

562 Atlanta at Brooklyn

The Hawks played a tough game against the Jazz on Thursday in a 111-106 loss. But that has been the exception for Atlanta as of late as this team simply doesn’t have the talent to compete on an everyday basis in this league.

The Nets dominated the Spurs for three quarters on Thursday, only to fall apart late. The average lead in that game was Brooklyn by 3.7 points. With a day off and not another game until next Thursday we expect the Nets to take out some frustrations tonight.

PLAY BROOKLYN

544 Washington at Toronto

Surprised by the low line here as we have Toronto rated much higher than the Wizards. While Washington has played well on the road, Toronto has dominated at home. The rest in this game is equal, so that isn’t a factor. This line suggests on a neutral court Toronto would be only a 2 1/2 point favorite. That’s simply not correct. We lay the bargain price in this one as we have the Raptors winning by 10.

PLAY TORONTO

551 Brooklyn at Toronto

The Nets are playing terrific ball right now, even better than the 8-3 record as of late. This is a team that has held the lead in the majority of 10 of those 11 games. The Nets are also well rested having played just once in the past five days.

The Raptors are off that big showdown with the Clippers and Leonard. It’s also rested having the last two days off. But Toronto has dropped 4 of 5 as of late as the team is now starting to play towards its talent level. 

PLAY BROOKLYN

504 Houston at Toronto

Very happy to lay this small number at home with the Raptors. Houston has already lost on the road to Brooklyn, Miami, Denver and the Clippers. The only quality road win was at Minnesota. Coming off an overtime loss at San Antonio, this team hasn’t proven itself away from home this season. 

Toronto is 8-2 ATS at home, off an overtime home loss to Miami last time out. Prior to that defeat the Raptors had won seven straight games. This is a cheap number to lay for Toronto.

PLAY TORONTO

579 Washington at LA Lakers

The high scoring Wizards look to add to its success on the road trip after outscoring the Suns on Wednesday. While the record isn’t overly impressive, the Wizards have won 3 of 5 overall heading into this contest.

The Lakers are coming in off an emotional come from behind win in New Orleans. It was a positive homecoming for Anthony Davis. Now the team has a fun get out and run game with the Wizards before hosting the red hot Mavericks on Sunday. This is a major sandwich spot for the host with Dallas, Denver and Utah up next. 

PLAY WASHINGTON

556 San Antonio at New York

The Spurs have dropped eight straight games and have the Lakers on deck. Naturally this is the game San Antonio needs to have. But this isn’t your typical Spurs squad we are so used to seeing under Pops. The defense simply isn’t there right now, as every opponent the Spurs have played this season has reached triple figures.

The Knicks have held the lead the majority of the game only five times this season, but it’s happened in each of the last four games. This is a team that is getting better and better each time out, but is staying under the national radar. Wrong team favored based on the way these teams are playing right now.

PLAY NEW YORK 

524 Utah at Memphis

The Jazz have struggled on the road thus far with a 1-4 ATS mark. Off four straight victories the team may enter here a bit satisfied with its recent performance. 

The Grizzlies host the Jazz for the first of a four game home stand. After wins at San Antonio and Charlotte this team should have solid momentum for this home battle. Our numbers show this line to be too high. We step in and take the host.

PLAY MEMPHIS

511 Brooklyn at Denver

Nets are well rested having not played a back to back since November 1st and 2nd. This is the 4th of 5 on this road trip, but it should be well acclimated to the atmosphere after playing at Utah on Tuesday.

While the Nuggets are 7-3 on the season, they have been quite fortunate. We have them at a deserved 5-5 as they have only had an average lead this season of 0.15 points per game. That despite being favored in all ten games this season. 

The Nuggets are the most overrated team in the league based on how it has played this season. We take advantage of that tonight with an inflated line.

PLAY BROOKLYN

502 Miami at Cleveland

We've been impressed by the start the Miami Heat have gotten off to. This team looks like a legit contender for a mid-tier playoff position. That said, this line is simply too high based on the way these two teams have been playing. 

Cleveland is 4-6 on the season which is enough of a surprise, but the team is actually better than that. On the year the Cavaliers have held a lead for more time than the opposition. That despite playing 6 of 10 games on the road, and being an underdog in all 10 games! This line is all based on reputation and preseason expectations. We expect the Cavs to win this outright.

PLAY CLEVELAND

578 Philadelphia at Orlando

Despite a 7-3 record the 76ers are not playing up to its talent level. Our numbers show the team has been very fortunate and should have a 5-5 record. This team is only 1.7 points per game better than the schedule of teams it has faced. Now in the second game of a back to back and third in four days, their best players will likely be sitting. 

As opposed to the visitor the Magic are playing better than its record. Orlando is 3-7 on the year but our numbers show this team is only 0.5 points worse than the schedule it has played. And that schedule has featured Toronto, Milwaukee, Denver, Dallas and Indiana. With two days off since the last time the Magic took the court, Orlando has a huge scheduling advantage tonight.

PLAY ORLANDO

560 Toronto at LA Clippers

Short handed Raptors pulled off an impressive upset of the Lakers last night. But in doing so VanFleet played 38 minutes and Siakam 42. Now playing back to back against a Clippers team that has had the past three days off. LA doesn’t play again until Wednesday, so there will be no load limits for the Clippers star. The number is high for a reason, but not high enough as we expect the Raptors to fade in the second half.

PLAY LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

538 Charlotte at Philadelphia

The Hornets have been very fortunate with a 4-5 record. Our numbers show it deserves a 2-7 mark. The only two games it should have won were against the Bulls and Kings, two teams who started the year poorly. This is the only road game in a five game stretch for the Hornets.

The 76ers return home from a bad 1-3 road trip, with three straight losses entering this contest. Philadelphia doesn’t play again until Tuesday against the lowly Cavaliers. We expect the host to take out some frustrations here on the unrested Hornets.

PLAY PHILADELPHIA

527 Golden State at Oklahoma City

Nobody is going to want anything to do with these short handed Warriors after an overtime loss. But that gives us plenty of value here. Golden State played ten players yesterday, all early double digit minutes. And for the third time in four games the Warriors held the lead for a majority of the game. This is a team that is much better than the record shows, and we can take advantage of that with increased lines.

Oklahoma City doesn’t run like they used to, which keep scoring down and gives underdogs a better chance to stay in the game. Coming off its worst defensive performance of the season, we expect the pace to be slower than normal. 

PLAY GOLDEN STATE

540 New York at Orlando

Simply put the New York Knicks are terrible, and any time we can bet against them at a reasonable number we will. Coming off a undeserved home victory over Chicago seems like as good a time as any. While the score shows a 105-98 win, the average lead in the game was 8.9 points. By the Bulls! Chicago dominated that game and yet found a way to lose. On the season New York is 3-1 ATS despite very rarely holding a lead. 

Orlando is coming off losses to Atlanta and Toronto, two teams playing much better than expected. The Magic are well rested having only played three games this season and no back to backs. With Milwaukee and Denver on the horizon this is a must win game for the host. We expect a terrific effort from the Magic as they win this one handily.

PLAY ORLANDO

533 Atlanta at Miami

While the Hawks are playing in the second game of a back to back, Miami is playing its third game in four days. It’s also the first game with Jimmy Butler a key offseason signing. Since Butler didn’t play in the first three games we can look for rust to be a factor after coming back from the birth of a child. 

Atlanta was good to us yesterday and continues to be underrated in the betting marketplace. This young team is playing with great confidence now, showing yesterday it could play head up with the elite in the east. Despite that loss Atlanta led the majority of the game. No way the line should be this high with the way the Hawks are playing right now.

PLAY ATLANTA

530 Denver at Sacramento

Everybody and their brother likes this Denver Nuggets team coming into the season. It’s an extremely talented team that many feel will represent the Western Conference in this years championship. But despite a 2-0 start to the season the Nuggets haven’t been overly impressive. Having to go to overtime against Phoenix at home last time out as an example. We see it all the time. A team is highly publicized in the off season and believes all the hype. Hey how bout those Cleveland Browns! Now sitting at 2-0 with an improved Dallas on deck tomorrow, what kind of effort will we see out of the Nuggets tonight.

The Kings on the other hand are 0-3 on the young season, losing all three games by double digits. The last being a 113-81 road loss at Utah. Nobody wants these Kings tonight, which means the value is there on the host. This team is not nearly as bad as it has shown so far, and this is the only game in a three day stretch. With the Clippers twice, Boston and Milwaukee on deck, this is an all in game for the host.

PLAY SACRAMENTO

516 Philadelphia at Atlanta

Joel Embid is listed as questionable tonight, but this analysis expects him to play. While Embid has a sizable advantage down low over the Hawks, we like the way this young team has started the season. Atlanta has the youngest starting five in the league including two rookies who have gotten off to impressive starts. This is a matchup of the only two undefeated teams in the league and the home crowd will be pumped. Trey Young has been outstanding thus far and the line provides us value on the host. We look for a high scoring contest with Atlanta pulling off the shocker.

PLAY ATLANTA

530 Golden State at Toronto

The much better team in this series has been the Toronto Raptors. If you were to take the names off the front of the jerseys the Raptors would be a clear betting favorite. If it wasn’t for one half of a basketball game Toronto would already be champions. 

Toronto was favored by 2 1/2 to 3 points before the news broke that Kevin Durant would try to play tonight. I’m now seeing a three to four point line move, for a player who hasn’t stepped on the court in weeks. He’s an excellent player when fully healthy, but that’s not what we will be getting tonight. Besides, if you are Durant, a free agent after these playoffs, do you really want to risk the chance of getting further injured right before a huge payday? 

The Warriors have played without him for weeks, and now they must adjust to him back in the lineup. If this was a regular season game the wise guys would be looking to fad the Warriors here. We look to do the same even if it is the playoffs. 

PLAY TORONTO

609 Longwood at DePauk

The Lancers are trying to even up its season record tonight at 17-17 with an upset of DePaul. Longwood lives and dies by the 3 pointer, allowing opponents to take 50.3% of its shots from long range. The Lancers themselves take 50.4% of its shots from beyond the arc. But DePaul isn’t a team that takes a lot of 3 pointers with only 33% of its attempts coming from that area. What we like about the visitor is that it only attempts 16.5% of its shots from midrange. 

Anytime you have a team that puts up 50% of its shots from deep, you have a team that can pull off a upset. This club is 6-1 ATS catching double digits and 3-4 straight up. We like the Lancers chances here.

PLAY LONGWOOD

870 Buffalo & Texas Tech

Playing in the MAC the Bulls don’t get to see this type of defense very often. The Red Raiders only permit 30% of opponent shots at the rim, while forcing the opposition to attempt 30.5% from mid range. This is also a squad that is excellent against the 3 as it holds the opposition to just 29.5% accuracy from downtown. 

Buffalo allows opponents to take 39.2% of shots at the rim where Texas Tech shoots 67.4%. This matchup favors the Red Raiders and we expected this line to take that in to account, which is hasn’t.

PLAY TEXAS TECH

781 New Mexico State & Auburn

The Aggies are ranked #2 in the country in shooting inside the arc, and are on a 19 game winning streak. This team loves to shoot the 3 and Auburn struggles against outside shooting teams. NM State is 5th in the country in rebounding margin. Very deep team who can afford to get into foul trouble. 

Auburn is 2-5 against Top 25 teams and only 10-7 away from home. This club is 8th in the country in offensive efficiency, but has a 220th in effective field goal defense.

Campus is a whopping 1876 miles from this location. 

With two teams playing similar styles we much prefer the underdog here in a game that has a decent shot of an outright victory.

PLAY NEW MEXICO STATE

814 Iowa & Michigan

Not only are the Wolverines off a loss to instate rival Michigan State, the team is in revenge for a 74-59 loss at Iowa. Michigan permits only 29% of opponents attempts to be from beyond the three point line. In addition, Michigan only allows 29.4% accuracy from that range. That’s a big part of this Iowa offense as the Hawkeyes attempt 39.5% shots from that area and connect on 36.3% of long range shots. Michigan forces opponents to shoot midrange on 35.9% of its shots, while Iowa only forces opponents to attempt 20% from that low efficiency area. Iowa permits 39% of opponents shots at the rim, while Michigan shoots a solid 66.1% in that area. 

PLAY MICHIGAN

603 Binghamton at Vermont

The Bearcats have played much better on the road this season than at home. With a 10-22 record this team will be playing very loose in this one as the season likely ends tonight. The Bearcats are weak against the 3 pointer, allowing 37.7% success this season. But when it comes down to closer shots this team can compete against Vermont enough to make a game of this.

The Catamounts are 25-6 and already beat the Bearcats twice this season. In a one bid league all Vermont has to do is win and advance. That gives the underdog a great chance to stay under this number. Playing at home where Vermont has lost only twice all season, we can see the host just going through the motions here and using the bench players extended minutes. Keep in mind Vermont uses an 11 man rotation, so the starters get extended minutes of rest.

PLAY BINGHAMTON

888 San Diego & St Mary’s

Fourth game in five days for a Toreros team who has a very short bench. Four players average at least 71% of the team minutes, with three going for 82.1% or higher. There is only eight players in this rotation, so foul trouble is always a concern. San Diego takes far too many shots from midrange at 33.2% of attempts, and far too little around the rim at 26.8% of attempts. This team has already lost to St Mary’s by 17 and 20 points this year. That increases the Gaels win streak in this series to 11 straight victories. This line is too short in our regard as the Gaels need to bounce back strongly here after losing its last regular season game to arch rival Gonzaga. Fresher team gets it done in a big way today.

PLAY ST MARY’S 

Fresh off our NHL Game of the Week as the underdog Winnipeg Jets won 8-1 yesterday. Now on a 10-3 NBA run and tonight we are STEPPING OUT WITH A BEST BET on the hardwood. Join us as we continue to provide profit for our clients. 

535 Cleveland at Brooklyn

The Cavaliers are a whole different team with Kevin Love healthy and in the lineup. With plenty of rest heading into this game and no contest tomorrow, the Cavs Love affair should provide us with a solid play tonight. Brooklyn leads the season series 2-1 but the last game was a triple overtime thriller. Cleveland is 5-3 straight up as of late with Love sitting the bench in the majority of those losses. 

Brooklyn is fighting for the playoffs which is one reason why this line is so high. But keep in mind the Nets have dropped 9 of its last 14 games. And the team has been slightly better on the road than at home this year.

PLAY CLEVELAND

503 Atlanta at Miami

Third game in four days for the Hawks who beat the Bulls 123-118 yesterday. But keep in mind none of the Hawks players played more than 28 minutes including Trey Young who was kicked out of the contest after only 18 minutes of play.

Miami is the team trying to make the playoffs and will be a popular play with the public today. But keep in mind the Heat have lost outright to the Hawks in all three meetings this season. Can’t trust the Heat here who have lost 6 of 8 outright as of late in this building.

PLAY ATLANTA

582 Orlando at Cleveland

Terrible spot here for the red hot Magic, off wins over Golden State and Indiana, with Philadelphia on deck. Orlando is very young and hasn’t been able to give the same effort on a night to night basis. Just in the last two weeks this team has lost to Chicago and New York. 

Cleveland on the other hand rested Kevin Love last night and were embarrassed by the Pistons. Love is back on Sunday and the team has played very well since his return to health. Great situational spot for the Cavaliers to take advantage of all the Orlando hype the last three weeks.

PLAY CLEVELAND

660 South Carolina at Missouri

The first meeting had 160 points which gives us an advantageous line here for the rematch. Neither team is prolific from deep and South Carolina only attempts 34.5% of its shots from that range. Both teams defend the mid-range shot well, and the Gamecocks attempt 36.6% of its shots from that low efficiency area. Both teams rarely shoot at the rim, yet they are very good at stopping opponents from doing so. Therefore without easy baskets we can see this contest being very low scoring.

PLAY UNDER

553 Milwaukee at Los Angeles Lakers

Bucks are in the middle of playing three games in four days on this five game road trip. That said, the Lakers and LeBron James bring out the best in good teams. And this Milwaukee team is playing better than anyone in the league. This contest should also bring special meaning for the Greek Freak as his team lost to LeBron and his squad in the All-Star game.

The Bucks have played slightly better on the road this year, while the Lakers have been very poor at home. The Lakers are 18-12 straight up at home on the season, but just 6-8 since mid-December. Simply cannot trust the host to play enough defense to keep this one close. With a winnable game at Phoenix on deck, followed by city rival Clippers, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Lakers go deep in the rotation tonight.

PLAY MILWAUKEE

611 William & Mary at Towson

The Tribe is looking to sweep its season series with Towson after winning 71-61 at home at the end of December. Riding a three game winning streak the visitor has played better on the road than at home this season. Towson has done the same as its home court value is one of the lowest in college basketball. The Tigers are just 5-5 straight up in this building. 

It’s tough to back the Tigers considering this team takes only 29.5% of its shots from long range, while permitting opponents to attempt a whopping 45.9% of shots from beyond the arc. When looking at midrange jumpers Towson takes 38.2% from this poor efficiency area, while the Tribe defense allows 28.9% of shots to be taken from that area. William & Mary prefers to attack the basket with 41.3% of shots to be taken at the rim. 

With Towson not attacking the basket, and not shooting from the 3 point line, this offense cannot be counted on.

PLAY WILLIAM & MARY

787 Georgia Tech at Virginia

Yellow Jackets have dropped 8 of 9 recently but this team actually matches up decently well with the Cavaliers. Georgia Tech has played much better on the road this season, as have these Cavaliers. 

The defensive key for Virginia is to force the opposition to shoot from distance, where the Cavs only allow 26.5% success from 3 point range. But Georgia Tech doesn’t attempt a lot of shots from downtown. Tech would rather compete around the rim with 37.7% of its shots coming from close range. 

With just four games left in the regular season Virginia just wants to win and advance at this point of the year. The last seven games for this club have been decided by 12 points or less. The Wahoos have bigger fish to fry, while Georgia Tech will be looking to pull off a shocker. We feel the visitor will keep this close throughout.

PLAY GEORGIA TECH

604 Akron at Buffalo

The Zips played a competitive game against the Bulls just two weeks ago at home, losing 76-70. But this Zips team has really struggled on the road with a 1-8 straight up mark on the season. The Bulls on the other hand are undefeated at home this year. 

In breaking down this contest we see than Akron takes 47.7% of its shots from deep, while making only 31.1%. Buffalo defends the three well permitting just 30.6% from long range. Buffalo has a big advantage at the rim taking 43.7% of its shots from that high efficiency area, while Akron permits 41.9% of opponents shots to be taken at close range. 

With Buffalo going inside and poor shooting Akron heaving threes, this game turns into a blowout rather quickly.

PLAY BUFFALO

562 Portland at Cleveland

Blazers have won three in a row all by 14 points or more. It is in the midst of a seven game season high road trip. Coming off back to back double digit road wins over Philadelphia and Brooklyn, this team is riding high with Boston and Toronto on deck. If you were looking for a flat spot for the Blazers, this would be it.

Don’t look now but the Cavaliers are playing its best ball of the season. Winning three of its last four with the lone loss coming in double overtime. Cleveland has the next two days off before traveling to New York to face the Knicks. This is also the fifth straight game at home for the Cavs who are the far more rested team from a travel aspect. 

Can’t see the Blazers getting up to play Cleveland here and the return of Love has energized the host. Look for this game to be tightly contested.

PLAY CLEVELAND

626 Maryland at Iowa

Having a hard time seeing these two getting to the posted total in this one. Terps have reached this number just once on the conference road all season. Maryland ranks 277th in the country in pace, and 19th in effective field goal defense. This team is outstanding defensively at the rim, allowing just 57% field goals. As well as behind the arc forcing opponents to shoot 31.6%.

Iowa is also very good defensively from distance permitting just 31.4% shooting from behind the arc. While the Hawkeyes are 70th in pace, the team is 216th in field goal attempts per 100 trips up court. We look for this game to total 143 points or less.

PLAY UNDER 

687 Southern Utah at Sacramento State

Nice matchup for the Thunderbirds who are riding a three game winning streak and already beat Sacramento State earlier at home. Southern Utah can be beat from long range allowing 36.6% shooting, but the host only takes 27% of its shots from beyond the arc. The Thunderbirds only take 20.6% of its shots from midrange, while tonights opponent takes a whopping 30.9% from that low efficiency area. To make matters worse the Hornets only make 30.6% of the shots from that area. Sac State does take 42.2% of attempts at the rim, but the visitor only permits 55.8% shooting from that range.

PLAY SOUTHERN UTAH

503 Milwaukee at Indiana

In-season revenge game for the Bucks who lost to the Pacers by 16 in mid-December. Milwaukee has been golden this year after losing in the previous meeting, as well as coming off a loss in its last game. This is a club that takes losses badly and can’t wait to right the wrong. In its final game before the break we look for the Bucks to end the Pacers six game winning streak.

PLAY MILWAUKEE

637 Duke at Louisville

With the Blue Devils off the big win at Virginia many will feel that this will be a letdown spot for Coach K’s squad. But the matchup clearly favors the road team. Louisville lives and dies by the three point shot, attempting 43.3% of its shots from long distance. But that plays directly into the Duke defense which only permits 33.8% of attempts from that area and just a 29.5% success rate. Duke takes 43.4% of its shots at the rim, which is much more predictable for success. 

PLAY DUKE

563 Milwaukee at Chicago

Not only have the Bucks been a great team in revenge, this club has bounced back strong off a loss. How bout 13-0 straight up on the season, covering the number by over 14 points per game. Since the start of the season Milwaukee has won those games by margins of 35, 23, 7, 19, 6, 3, 23, 5, 12, 14, 12, 19 and 10 points. This team lost against Orlando Saturday in the second game of a back to back situation. With Indiana and Boston on deck this is a chance for the Bucks to take out some frustrations.

PLAY MILWAUKEE

685 Utah at UCLA

The Utes have won four of five on the road as of late, with the lone loss coming by just three points at Arizona. UCLA has dropped five of seven overall, and four of seven here at home. 

Utah takes 45.4% of its shots from downtown, and UCLA allows 41.3% of opponent shots from that area. So the Utes should get plenty of good looks from its favorite spot on the floor. 

UCLA prefers taking shots at the rim, attempting 44.5% of its shots in that range. But Utah forces opponents out of that area, permitting just 31.9% attempts close to the basket. 

PLAY UTAH

658 Wisconsin Milwaukee at Cleveland State

Two teams with disappointing seasons playing out the conference string. This is the fifth straight road game for the Panthers, who have dropped five straight away from home. Milwaukee permits a whopping 45.5% of opponents shots to be taken from beyond the arc, while that plays right into the Vikings hands at home. Cleveland State takes 43.9% of its shots from downtown. Milwaukee also takes 29.2% of its shots from midrange, while only forcing the opposition to take 20.5% from that poor shooting area. 

PLAY CLEVELAND STATE

603 Michigan State at Illinois

Short and sweet the Spartans have been excellent coming off of a loss. Now 61% ats after a defeat and the same 61% off back to back losses. This team has much more talent than the Illini, and the host's home court value is weak.

PLAY MICHIGAN STATE

534 Atlanta at Washington

Third game in four days for the Hawks who are off five straight games on the west coast. This is a one game stopover before returning to Atlanta for a seven game home stand. This should be a throwaway game for a team just playing out the schedule with no postseason expectations.

Washington is rested and at home for the third straight game. This game is sandwiched in between games against the Milwaukee Bucks, so this is the contest the Wizards will be focused on. Great situational play for the host.

PLAY WASHINGTON

507 Milwaukee at Washington

The Bucks have been outstanding in seeking revenge for an in season loss. Last game out they kept the winners coming with a 105-92 upset of the Raptors. Milwaukee lost to Washington 113-106 on January 11th. WE will back the best team in the east against a disappointing Wizards squad.

PLAY MILWAUKEE

857 Yale at Harvard

Yale has won 11 of 12 as of late with the only loss coming on the road at Duke. The visitor should dominate at the rim shooting 67.7% on 40.2% of the teams shots. Harvard permits 95% shooting on dunks, and Yale averages 10.7% of their shots taken at that spot. 

Yale defends the 3 very well allowing only 31% shooting from long range, while Harvard takes a whopping 42.6% of its shots from downtown.

PLAY YALE

822 Illinois at Minnesota

The Fighting Illini spanked the Gophers at home 95-68 two weeks ago. That’s one of two wins for Illinois in the past nine games. 

Minnesota is 11-1 straight up at home on the season. The host has a huge edge at the rim, attempting 42.8% of its shots there, while Illinois allows 66.3% from the field in that area. The Gophers force the opposition to shoot 29.8% of its shots in a low efficiency area of the court, and the Illini only shoot 30.5% from the area in front of the arc and outside the paint.Minnesota gains its revenge in a big way here.

PLAY MINNESOTA

639 Nevada at UNLV

The Rebels just aren’t a good basketball team. The only reason it has gotten off to a decent start is because UNLV played the worst teams early in the schedule. This is a team that allows opponents to take 40.3% of its shots at the rim. 

Nevada shoots 67% at the rim on the season, so the Wolfpack should get any shot near the basket it wants. Nevada permits 41.7% of opponent shots behind the arc, but UNLV isn’t that accurate from long distance. We would much rather have a team that can dominate inside, as opposed to a team that would need a hot game from distance to be competitive. This is also a major revenge game for the Wolfpack who lost to the Rebels in a college football upset this year.

PLAY NEVADA

851 Duke at Notre Dame

Irish have dropped four straight and 6 of 7 as it hosts the most talented team in the country. This is a terrible matchup for Notre Dame who attempts 44.4% of its shots behind the arc. Duke holds the opposition to just 28.9% accuracy from downtown. 

Duke on the other hand takes 16.6% of its attempts on dunks and 44.3% overall at the rim. Once again, bad matchup for the Irish.

PLAY DUKE

839 Washington State at Oregon

We expect this one to be a shootout. The Cougars have permitted 90, 88, 92 and 85 points on the road the past four games, all in conference. Oregon is coming off its second lowest offensive output of the season. 

The Cougars shoot 43.9% on its shots from behind the arc, while Oregon allows teams to take 47% of its shots from 3 point land. That means long shot attempts a plenty for Washington State. Neither team forces opponents to shoot between the rim and the arc, which traditionally is the least effective offensive shots. Therefore both teams will be able to attack the basket and dish to waiting 3 point shooters.

PLAY OVER

687 Marshall at Southern Miss

The Thundering Herd takes much better percentage shots than its opponent today. 10.9% ducks, 38.9% at the rim and 42.3% from downtown. The Golden Eagles by comparison shoot 36.5% from what I consider the dead zone, long two point tries. That provides a huge efficiency edge for Marshall who is off back to back road losses to Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech. 

Southern Miss only has two wins over the Top 160 rated squads, and its most impressive win came in game two against SMU. 

PLAY MARSHALL

853 Buffalo at Kent State

Bulls coming in off a loss to Northern Illinois 77-75. Both of Buffalo’s losses this season have come on the road. While this team hasn’t looked quite as good since conference season started, there is now value on this clear MAC favorite. This team is fourth in the country in attempted shots from outside the paint and inside the arc, the lowest efficiency area on the court. 

Kent State is having a terrific season as well, but this is a step up game for the Golden Flashes. Kent’s adjusted defensive efficiency is the key here with a 106.0 as opposed to the Bulls defense of 95.2. Should be a good game to watch, but the Bulls have the much better talent.

PLAY BUFFALO

623 Tulsa at Cincinnati

The Golden Hurricane led the Bearcats by 6 points with just 1:16 left in the earlier meeting. Cincinnati stormed back and beat Tulsa 70-65 in overtime. 

Tulsa averages 40.7% of its shots in the paint vs the Bearcats 31.6%. What we really don’t like is that Cincinnati shoots way too many mid-range shots with 36.8% of its attempts coming outside the rim and inside the arc. Those shots are the lowest efficiency shots. Much prefer the visitor in a revenge setting.

PLAY TULSA

634 Michigan State at Nebraska

Spartans a bit short handed tonight in what is considered a playoff type of game for the Huskers. Michigan State has been a big offensive scoring team by getting out on the break, but that success was in non-conference play. Now in Big Ten action these teams know what to expect from the Spartans. Therefore we expect a more physical lower scoring game. Nebraska can’t beat this team by trying to outscore them, the Huskers need to slow the pace and be physical in a show me type of game.

PLAY UNDER

 527 Milwaukee at Memphis

Third game in four days for the Bucks, while Memphis is rested. This is a revenge game for Milwaukee after losing at home to the Grizzlies 116-113 in mid-November. But before you dismiss this as a nothing game for the Bucks, take a look at what Milwaukee has done after losing the previous meeting this year to an opponent. Lost to Boston on the first of November, beat the Celtics by 13 on the road. Lost to Portland November 6th, beat the Blazers by 43 at home two weeks later. Lost to New York the first of December, beat the Knicks by 14 and 16 in a home and home during Christmas time. Lost to Miami December 22nd, beat the Heat by 38 points last night. None of the Bucks starters played more than 27 minutes last night, as 13 players swat least 7 minutes of action. 

When Memphis beat the Bucks earlier, it was in the midst of a 7-1 Grizzlies winning streak. The current Memphis run is losses in 13 of 16 games. It’s payback time for the visitor.

868 Syracuse at Duke

The Orangemen have faltered when stepping up in class, playing a very weak overall schedule coming into league play. This is just the third true road game for Syracuse.

We rate Duke three points better than any other team as of right now, and we catch them off a tooth and nail last minute come from behind victory over Florida State. That was the wakeup call the Blue Devils needed. The last time this team was in a battle was an 89-87 loss to Gonzaga, which was followed by a 21 point win over Indiana. We look for a big bounce back from the Blue Devils tonight.

PLAY DUKE

614 Green Bay at Detroit

Wrong team favored here as we find a Detroit team that’s in the top 10 in three point attempts, taking on an opponent ranked in the 300s in three point defense. Green Bay has a winning record but have played poorly on the road with just two wins against the 273rd and 295th ranked teams. Detroit should be favored here and the Titans will played the preferred slow tempo.

PLAY DETROIT

607 Akron at Central Michigan

The Zips have been a consistent frontrunner in MAC basketball for years now, making the postseason tournaments on a regular basis. This is the type of team we are looking to back in a near pick ‘em road contest.

Central Michigan has an impressive record, but that has come against the 348th toughest schedule in the country. The Chips haven’t shown up very often when stepping up in class, and this will be a very tough spot for the host. With Central having what seems to be an impressive record, we are getting a great deal on the number here.

PLAY AKRON

589 New York at Portland

Rested Knicks are about to play its opening game of a back to back situation, as the team travels to Oakland to face the Warriors tomorrow. Portland on the other hand is playing its third game in four nights, off a solid win over the red hot Rockets. Great scheduling spot here for the underdog who will go all out tonight, with less of a chance to win tomorrow against Golden State.

PLAY NEW YORK

824 Memphis at Houston

The Tigers are one of the fastest paced teams in college basketball, which is great when playing at home in front of its home crowd. Pace doesn’t work so well on the road, especially when the more talented team is the host. Memphis has only played one true road game this season. Houston has the defense to dictate the pace and make the Tigers fight for points.

PLAY HOUSTON

702 Minnesota at Cleveland

Third game in four days for the Timberwolves who are off back to back wins over Chicago and Brooklyn. After this contest the schedule toughens up with San Antonio, Boston and Houston, three really talented teams who have underperformed thus far. Minnesota is riding high after getting rid of its malcontent player, but we feel its a short success streak.

Cleveland’s young players are starting to believe in themselves. Collin Sexton has been terrific since being inserted in the starting lineup, and looks like a value bet to win rookie of the year. Ever since LeBron James came to town this team has renewed confidence. Wins over two good teams in Philadelphia and Houston has this team playing much better than early in the year. We look for the outright upset here.

PLAY CLEVELAND

513 Toronto at Utah

While the Raptors are playing the second game of a back to back here, Utah is playing its third in four days and its fourth in six. We already know the Jazz best scorer Donovan Mitchell will be out, and it’s likely Leonard will be out for the Raptors. But as of now he hasn’t been ruled out completely. Toronto is playing terrific ball right now while the host is really struggling. With or without Leonard we will back the Raptors here, as Utah is really having defensive problems this season.

PLAY TORONTO

507 Golden State at Houston

Rare opportunity to get the clearly best team in the league without laying points. The Warriors were a short handed bunch last time out and the physical nature of the game seemed to wear on them down the stretch. Keep in mind the mental focus of this team after blowing away the Rockets in the previous game. Golden State was fat and happy and began to read its press clippings. While the Rockets played all out with its back to the wall. Now that Golden State is focused we see the Warriors coming out of Texas with the series lead.

PLAY GOLDEN STATE