Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-25-19 | Buffalo -8 v. Kent State | Top | 88-79 | Win | 100 | 2 h 45 m | Show |
853 Buffalo at Kent State Bulls coming in off a loss to Northern Illinois 77-75. Both of Buffalo’s losses this season have come on the road. While this team hasn’t looked quite as good since conference season started, there is now value on this clear MAC favorite. This team is fourth in the country in attempted shots from outside the paint and inside the arc, the lowest efficiency area on the court. Kent State is having a terrific season as well, but this is a step up game for the Golden Flashes. Kent’s adjusted defensive efficiency is the key here with a 106.0 as opposed to the Bulls defense of 95.2. Should be a good game to watch, but the Bulls have the much better talent. PLAY BUFFALO |
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01-24-19 | Tulsa +14 v. Cincinnati | Top | 64-88 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
623 Tulsa at Cincinnati The Golden Hurricane led the Bearcats by 6 points with just 1:16 left in the earlier meeting. Cincinnati stormed back and beat Tulsa 70-65 in overtime. Tulsa averages 40.7% of its shots in the paint vs the Bearcats 31.6%. What we really don’t like is that Cincinnati shoots way too many mid-range shots with 36.8% of its attempts coming outside the rim and inside the arc. Those shots are the lowest efficiency shots. Much prefer the visitor in a revenge setting. PLAY TULSA |
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01-14-19 | Syracuse v. Duke -17 | Top | 95-91 | Loss | -107 | 3 h 7 m | Show |
868 Syracuse at Duke The Orangemen have faltered when stepping up in class, playing a very weak overall schedule coming into league play. This is just the third true road game for Syracuse. We rate Duke three points better than any other team as of right now, and we catch them off a tooth and nail last minute come from behind victory over Florida State. That was the wakeup call the Blue Devils needed. The last time this team was in a battle was an 89-87 loss to Gonzaga, which was followed by a 21 point win over Indiana. We look for a big bounce back from the Blue Devils tonight. PLAY DUKE |
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01-10-19 | Green Bay v. Detroit +1.5 | Top | 83-101 | Win | 100 | 4 h 32 m | Show |
614 Green Bay at Detroit Wrong team favored here as we find a Detroit team that’s in the top 10 in three point attempts, taking on an opponent ranked in the 300s in three point defense. Green Bay has a winning record but have played poorly on the road with just two wins against the 273rd and 295th ranked teams. Detroit should be favored here and the Titans will played the preferred slow tempo. PLAY DETROIT |
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01-08-19 | Akron -1.5 v. Central Michigan | Top | 86-88 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 53 m | Show |
607 Akron at Central Michigan The Zips have been a consistent frontrunner in MAC basketball for years now, making the postseason tournaments on a regular basis. This is the type of team we are looking to back in a near pick ‘em road contest. Central Michigan has an impressive record, but that has come against the 348th toughest schedule in the country. The Chips haven’t shown up very often when stepping up in class, and this will be a very tough spot for the host. With Central having what seems to be an impressive record, we are getting a great deal on the number here. PLAY AKRON |
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01-06-19 | Memphis v. Houston -8 | Top | 77-90 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
824 Memphis at Houston The Tigers are one of the fastest paced teams in college basketball, which is great when playing at home in front of its home crowd. Pace doesn’t work so well on the road, especially when the more talented team is the host. Memphis has only played one true road game this season. Houston has the defense to dictate the pace and make the Tigers fight for points. PLAY HOUSTON |
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03-31-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Michigan -5 | Top | 57-69 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
812 Loyola Chicago & Michigan Heard some quotes from other coaches who made the final four as surprise teams. They all said that the situation is totally different from anything these teams have seen in the past. Because of all the hoopla all the timing of a regular season game goes out the window. Not enough time for a normal shoot around, in and out of the locker room in less time than normal, stadium views as opposed to regular 20,000 seat or less dimensions. Loyola will be going through that for the first time today, while the other three teams have been through it before. On the court Michigan has the athletes to really give the Ramblers trouble. This will be the first time in the tournament in which Loyola will be at a defensive disadvantage. PLAY MICHIGAN |
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03-25-18 | Duke -3 v. Kansas | Top | 81-85 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
721 Duke & Kansas The Blue Devils have been the best team in the country since going to a zone defense midway through the season. Duke has now held 12 straight teams to under 75 points. Duke allows just 46.2% effective field goals on the season. This team always recruits deadly shooters, and now with the team buying into the defensive end this team is extremely tough to beat. Kansas has won 11 of 12 heading into this contest, with the lone loss coming against Oklahoma State. But Penn, Seton Hall and Clemson has been one of the easiest roads in the tourney. We expect this line to climb, therefore lets lock in this number now on what we consider the clearly better team. PLAY DUKE |
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03-25-18 | Texas Tech +6.5 v. Villanova | Top | 59-71 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 20 m | Show |
719 Texas Tech & Villanova Sharp books are trending toward the underdog here and we fully agree. Tech has one of the best effective field goal defenses in the country at 46.7%, and Villanova has been shooting unworldly in the tournament as of late. Since the Big 12 Tournament nobody has surpassed 69 points on this team. Villanova was able to shoot over the West Virginia press, but we can’t expect those type of numbers again here. This line is just too high. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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03-24-18 | Florida State +4 v. Michigan | Top | 54-58 | Push | 0 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
515 Florida State & Michigan Smart money is on the Seminoles as the sharper books are lowering the number. We fully agree with that assessment. We only have these teams ranked 16 places apart in our power ratings, not nearly the difference to have a line this high. Florida State has played the better defense and faced a tougher schedule of Missouri, Xavier and Gonzaga. Michigan is coming off a blowout win over Texas A&M where the team just couldn’t miss from the field. That result has pushed this line up at least two points from where it deserves to be. Another reason for the inflated line is that the Wolverines are on a 12 game winning streak. Handicapping 101 tells you that you lose value on a streaking team as others blindly play on a hot squad. Right now 71% of the bets have come in on the favorite, yet the line is dropping. PLAY FLORIDA STATE |
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03-22-18 | Kansas State +6 v. Kentucky | Top | 61-58 | Win | 100 | 32 h 35 m | Show |
813 Kansas State & Kentucky Many will overlook K State here based on facing Creighton and Maryland Baltimore County in the first two rounds. But this defense has been very good as of late with only Kansas and Oklahoma surpassing 67 points over the past five weeks. Kentucky enters this game having won 9 of 10 with the only loss coming at Florida. These Wildcats are peaking at tourney time which is a staple of this program. But wins over Davidson and Buffalo haven’t changed our minds on this squad. Kentucky has underperformed all year as opposed to prior editions, and we can’t see this team being a contender. With what is considered an easy slate to the final four we can see these young players buying into all the hype, taking these fellows Wildcats for granted. PLAY KANSAS STATE |
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03-18-18 | Florida State v. Xavier -5.5 | Top | 75-70 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
720 Florida State & Xavier The Seminoles have staggered into the tournament having lost 6 of 11 games including the opening round win over Missouri. Three of those losses were to teams who didn’t make the Big Dance. Xavier only lost five games on the season, all to teams making the Big Dance. That includes two losses to Villanova and Providence. Better team with a cheap line. PLAY XAVIER |
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03-17-18 | Buffalo v. Kentucky -5.5 | Top | 75-95 | Win | 100 | 2 h 19 m | Show |
538 Buffalo and Kentucky As much as we like the Bulls, and we had them in the opening round, the price is too cheap not to take the Wildcats here. The MAC has been terrible in the postseason whether it’s football or basketball. The teams just don’t match up to higher athletic teams. While Arizona struggled down the stretch of the season, the Wildcats are peaking at the right time. PLAY KENTUCKY |
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03-16-18 | Georgia State +14 v. Cincinnati | Top | 53-68 | Loss | -105 | 98 h 48 m | Show |
881 Georgia State and Cincinnati The Panthers are a tough matchup for the Bearcats with their excellent zone defense. Georgia State allows an effective field goal percentage of 47.1%. Cincinnati struggles offensively when facing a zone. The Bearcats just played three games in three days with every contest being decided by 10 points or less. In 3 of the last 4 contests Cincinnati scored 62 points or less. Tough to lay this type of number in what is expected to be a low scoring contest. PLAY GEORGIA STATE |
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03-13-18 | Long Island +6 v. Radford | Top | 61-71 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 30 m | Show |
543 LIU Brooklyn and Radford The Blackbirds of Brooklyn enter the dance with just an 18-16 record. But it ended the season and the conference tourney by winning 12 of 17. Only one of the losses was by double digits, so even in defeat this team was competitive. The Radford Highlanders have the better 22-12 record but the team actually allows a higher effective field percentage than it generates itself, 49.5% to 49.4%. Brooklyn on the other hand has a 52.3% to 50% advantage. Radford doesn’t deserve to be this type of favorite tonight. PLAY LIU BROOKLYN |
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03-07-18 | Air Force +9.5 v. UNLV | Top | 90-97 | Win | 100 | 4 h 32 m | Show |
591 Air Force at UNLV The Falcons have played much better ball as of late and this is always a tough team to beat this time of season. UNLV has been a major disappointment and despite playing at home we can’t see this team winning by a margin. Throw in the fact that this is an early start on a weekday, coupled with apathy from the home fans, and there will be little to no home court advantage. AIR FORCE |
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02-21-18 | Texas Tech v. Oklahoma State +3.5 | Top | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
716 Texas Tech at Oklahoma State The Red Raiders just had a seven game winning streak broken at Baylor 59-57 in a tightly contested contest. Tech already beat Oklahoma State at home 75-70 and have Kansas on deck at home on Saturday. The Jayhawks have revenge on its mind from a 85-73 home loss earlier this year. So this is a tough spot here for the visitor. Oklahoma State has lost two straight and six of eight overall. It is coming off a 20 point loss at TCU, tied for its largest margin of defeat on the season. We back the home dog here. PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE |
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02-06-18 | Nebraska v. Minnesota -3 | Top | 91-85 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
554 Nebraska at Minnesota Huskers have been a major money makers this year posting a 17-6 spread mark. Nebraska has won three straight and enters tonight at 8-4 in Big 10 play. It beat Minnesota 78-68 at home in its earlier meeting. Minnesota is just 14-11 overall and 3-9 in conference. It enters this game having lost 8 of its last 9 games. Yet the line has moved from Minnesota -1 to -3.5, despite the fact that 68% of the bets and money have been on the underdog. Big money is on the host and we agree as fading early season money makers at this point of the season is the way to go. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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01-30-18 | Ball State +7 v. Toledo | Top | 75-63 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
533 Ball State at Toledo The Cardinal are 3-7 SU on the road this year and the Rockets enter play here having won seven straight games. Yet the early money has been on the road dog, and we agree. Despite the 15-6 overall mark and 7-1 record in the MAC, we view this Rockets team as overrated. Toledo just blew out Bowling Green by 26 last time out, so we can see this team fat and happy here. But keep in mind most of the success for the Rockets has been on the road. We will follow the line move and back the Cardinals. PLAY BALL STATE |
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01-27-18 | Georgetown +12 v. Creighton | Top | 77-85 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
641 Georgetown at Creighton The Hoyas played one of the easiest schedules in the country before league play started, and came into Big East play totally overrated. As expected Georgetown is now 3-6 in league play, having just dropped 2 of 3 at home. Now back on the road this team finally shows some betting value. Creighton is 16-5 on the season and undefeated on this home court. It already beat the Hoyas by 24 in Georgetown. Up on deck? The #1 Villanova Wildcats. Massive lookahead spot here for the host. PLAY GEORGETOWN |
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01-18-18 | Pepperdine +10.5 v. Pacific | Top | 78-92 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
563 Pepperdine at Pacific The Waves have been bad this season with an 0-6 conference record and just 3-15 overall. It’s riding a nine game losing streak entering this contest, having lost by double digits in four straight. But as Lee Corso would say “Not so Fast”. Over the last five games the Wave have played teams with a combined 71-23 record. Tonights opponent is just 9-10 on the year. The Tigers are off three straight victories and face three heavyweights after this contest. St Mary, San Francisco and BYU. Terrible spot for the host while the visitor drops down in class. PLAY PEPPERDINE |
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01-16-18 | Drake v. Northern Iowa -5.5 | Top | 54-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
536 Drake at Northern Iowa Many will look at this game and see the 5-1 in conference Bulldogs catching points at the 1-5 Panthers as a lock. But there is much more than wins and losses in handicapping sports. Drake is just 11-8 on the season, while Northern Iowa is 9-9. But the Panthers faced the likes of North Carolina, NC State, Villanova, UNLV, Texas Arlington, Iowa State and Xavier. The coaching staff made a surprising move last time out putting a talented freshman in the starting lineup at center, and dropping its leading scorer to the bench. For a coach to do such a thing tells us that its the right move to spark this squad. Northern Iowa in turn beat Valparaiso 81-76, breaking a seven game losing streak. Now with its back against the wall we expect these Panthers to be on the prowl. Our numbers show the Panthers to be 48 places better than the Bulldogs, and because of the way these two started the conference season the line is cheap. PLAY NORTHERN IOWA |
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01-10-18 | UNLV v. Air Force +9.5 | Top | 81-76 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
780 Unlv at Air Force The Rebels haven’t won at Air Force since 2014 and were crushed in this building a year ago. Because off all the instability in the program virtually all the players will be playing here for the first time tonight. UNLV likes to get out and run, which is why it was so successful early on in non-conference action. The Rebels played a vast majority of its games at home. Now that conference play has started the opposition isn’t letting the Rebels show its athleticism. Air Force is always tough at home and enters play tonight 0-3 in the Mountain west Conference. This is a club that is hard to prepare for because of the style of play it uses. This line is way too high for a struggling Rebels team to lay. PLAY AIR FORCE |
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12-30-17 | Dayton -3 v. Duquesne | Top | 62-70 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 45 m | Show |
563 Dayton at Duquesne The Flyers have played the 93rd best strength of schedule in the country. Duquesne has played the 342nd. Dayton is 6-6 on the season while the Dukes are 9-4. This is a major step up in class for the host while Dayton has already faced the likes of Hofstra, Auburn, Mississippi State, Penn and St Mary’s. The Flyers are the superior team and have the better ball movement. They will find many open shots in this contest. PLAY DAYTON |
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12-19-17 | Georgia Tech v. Georgia -5 | Top | 59-80 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
528 Georgia Tech at Georgia The Yellow Jackets come into this rivalry game with a 5-4 record. But the victories have come against the likes of Bethune-Cookman, Texas Pan American, North Texas, Florida A&M and Northwestern by a single point. Georgia Tech has played just once away from home, a three point loss at Wofford. Georgia has started the year playing the much tougher schedule and have a 7-2 record to show for it. Coming off a road favorite loss at Massachusetts, we can imagine this club looked past the Minutemen and paid for it. Let’s lay it with the better team on Tuesday. PLAY GEORGIA |
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03-26-17 | South Carolina v. Florida -3.5 | Top | 77-70 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 47 m | Show |
722 South Carolina & Florida The major key here is that this will be the third time Florida has faced this highly physical ball hawking defense of the Gamecocks. The first time South Carolina had the advantage but last time Florida held the super hand after have time to prepare. Now on short rest it’s the Gators who have the advantage once again. Every team that faced the Gamecocks in the Big Dance talked about not being prepared for this terrific defense. In fact, South Carolina had tremendous success this season in first meetings. But that hasn’t carried over when teams plays the Gamecocks a second time. Florida is well prepared for what it will see here, and wins going away. PLAY FLORIDA |
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03-24-17 | UCLA v. Kentucky +1.5 | Top | 75-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
876 UCLA & Kentucky Revenge game for the Wildcats who lost to UCLA 97-92 earlier at home. We really like the improvement in this Wildcat defense which has held 12 straight opponents to 77 points or less. In fact, just two of those opponents surpassed 70. This is a very young team as you would expect for Calipare, and the team has continually gotten better on the season. This is just the second same season revenge game for Kentucky, in the other it beat Tennessee by 25 points. UCLA is an outstanding shooting team but rarely plays the type of athletes Kentucky produces. Coming off the likes of Kent State and Cincinnati, this is a major step up game for the Bruins. Wrong team favored here. PLAY KENTUCKY |
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03-19-17 | Michigan v. Louisville -2.5 | Top | 73-69 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 50 m | Show |
722 Michigan & Louisville The Cinderella story for the Wolverines ends on Sunday. After surviving the airplane scare the Wolverines went all the way to the Big Ten Championship and crowned the school the Conference Champions. Then had to go to the wire to defeat Oklahoma State by one in a back and forth game on Friday. In that contest Michigan has four players who had at least 38 1/2 minutes of playing time. I know kids at this age are durable, but this has to have an affect on their bodies. Louisville had an easy time in its first game as the Cardinals pulled away in the second half in a game that was never in doubt. The Cards are a very good defensive team that will give Michigan plenty of trouble here. The line is cheap on the better team. PLAY LOUISVILLE |
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03-14-17 | Boise State +10.5 v. Utah | Top | 73-68 | Win | 100 | 25 h 30 m | Show |
561 Boise State at Utah The Mountain West was down this year but this line is a few points too high. Boise is a good shooting team with 52.2% effective field goals. In fact, when subtracting the 48.2% allowed the Broncos have a solid 4.0% edge in effective field goal shooting. Keep in mind this is a team that went to Oregon and lost by just 5 points, and beat SMU at home by 9. Utah had a 20 win season but had problems losing games it should have won. Defeats against California twice, Oregon State, Stanford and San Francisco, all teams not invited to the Big Dance. Utah has dropped 5 of 10 entering this contest, with three of those wins by single digits. Too many points here. PLAY BOISE STATE |
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03-07-17 | St. Mary's v. Gonzaga -4.5 | Top | 56-74 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
716 St Mary’s & Gonzaga We’ve been waiting for this matchup as the betting public and ourselves are at opposite ends regarding the Gaels. Gonzaga has won 11 of the last 13 meetings and this year the difference in quality of these teams is the largest in quite some time. The Gaels haven’t beaten a team heading to the dance since early December. The two meetings against the Zags resulted in losses by 23 and 10 points. Coming off a complete blowout over BYU this team is clearly overrated here. Lay the number with the Zags who are still looking for a #1 seed. PLAY GONZAGA |
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03-01-17 | Nevada v. San Jose State +7 | Top | 82-67 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
568 Nevada at San Jose State Major sandwich spot here for the Wolf Pack after blowing out in-state rival UNLV with a major game vs Colorado State on deck to end the regular season. Nevada is 12-4 in conference and 23-6 overall but this is likely going to be a one bid conference. Colorado State is 13-4 in the Mountain West and 21-9 overall so that game on Saturday will go a long way for postseason play for both those teams. San Jose State is a solid 7-9 in league action this year and a hell of a lot better team than a year ago. With a 14-13 record and a trip to Wyoming on deck this team will be fighting extremely hard to get a victory, assuring a winning regular season. We look for this game to go down to the wire. PLAY SAN JOSE STATE |
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02-25-17 | Southern Miss v. North Texas -5 | Top | 76-53 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
562 Southern Miss at North Texas The Golden Eagles are not a deep team at all which is why it has played well on long rest and very poorly on short rest. On Thursday this team laid it all on the line at a 15 point underdog at Rice and took the Owls to the wire in a 72-71 loss. Now less than 48 hours later this club is at North Texas in a competitively priced game. Southern Miss is 0-14 straight up this season when facing a team away from home. North Texas is seeking revenge for a 76-65 loss earlier at Southern Miss. While the Mean Green are only 8-19 on the season its effective field goal difference is only -3.0% on the year, compared to the Golden Eagles -7.8%. Cheap line with the host here as North Texas wins by double digits. PLAY NORTH TEXAS |
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02-25-17 | Texas Tech +7 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 63-80 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 27 m | Show |
549 Texas Tech at Oklahoma State Nice price here on the road underdog Red Raiders who are stepping down in class after facing Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia and Iowa State. Not to mention seeking revenge for an embarrassing 19 point home loss to these Cowboys. Despite a lowly 5-10 conference record Texas Tech is 17-11 on the season with a 3.2% effective field goal advantage over the opposition. Oklahoma State is 19-9 and 8-7 in Big12 action but owns a lesser 2.0% effective field goal edge on the season. Revenge time for the Red Raiders. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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02-20-17 | Miami (Fla) v. Virginia -7 | Top | 54-48 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
704 Miami Florida at Virginia Miami has won 2 of the last 7 in this series although these teams have split 3-3 ATS in Virginia. Miami is playing pretty good ball right now, especially defensively allowing just 47.1% effective field goals on the season. Virginia has the same conference record of 8-6 as the Hurricanes, but the Cavaliers have dropped three straight heading into this contest. With losses to North Carolina, Duke and Virginia Tech the betting public has soured on the defensive minded Cavs. But keep in mind this team has a 7.9 effective field goal advantage, shooting 54.0 and allowing 46.1. Those numbers cannot be denied. We made this line 11.4 which gives us a huge edge in this one, as we for one haven’t abandoned the Cavaliers. PLAY VIRGINIA |
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02-19-17 | Rider v. Iona -8 | Top | 103-85 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
880 Rider at Iona Iona is 14-3 SU in this seres and 12-6 ATS. Iona is 8-5 ATS as the series host. The Gaels sit at 11-6 in conference and 18-10 overall. Iona has won 8 of 10 but split the last four games heading into this contest. It won 95-76 less than three weeks ago at Rider. Rider is 14-14 overall and 7-10 on the MAAC. The Broncs play solid defense but lack a scoring punch. In the last three weeks not only did it surrender 95 to this Iona team but 107 in a win at Quinnipiac. That’s a sign that this defense is tiring. After losses in 9 of 12 heading into this contest we can’t expect that stop unit to rebound here on the road. PLAY IONA |
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02-18-17 | Charlotte v. Old Dominion -9 | Top | 48-72 | Win | 100 | 24 h 40 m | Show |
618 Charlotte at Old Dominion Getting this one early as we expect it to move. We made this 15.6 and the opener was 9.0. Huge lay for the host. PLAY OLD DOMINION |
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02-17-17 | Princeton v. Yale +3 | Top | 71-52 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
862 Princeton at Yale Princeton has come up short the last five times visiting Yale ATS. The team is sitting at a perfect 8-0 in conference this is not going to be an easy game for the Tigers. Princeton only beat Yale by eight earlier at home. The Bulldogs are a solid 6-2 in conference with the two losses coming at Princeton and last time out here against Harvard. That’s the only home loss this season for Yale. We have the Bulldogs rated as the favorite here and we are catching points. Can’t pass this one up with the quality Bulldogs team. PLAY YALE |
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02-16-17 | Colorado v. Oregon State +10.5 | Top | 60-52 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
744 Colorado at Oregon State The Buffaloes enter here having won 5 of 6 as of late, but in our opinion the line has been over adjusted. The home win over Oregon is legit, but the other victories came against lesser opposition. Oregon State is winless in conference and 4-22 overall on the season. But this is an opponent the Beavers can handle. It only lost by 7 earlier in Colorado. This time of year the books inflate the numbers against weak opponents which is why we find plenty of value here with the home dog. Just too many points for the Buffs to lay. PLAY OREGON STATE |
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02-15-17 | St. John's v. Butler -10.5 | Top | 86-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
564 St Johns at Butler The Johnnies are treading water right now having split each of its last eight games with losses following wins. Last time out St Johns beat Seton Hall at home and have Marquette on the road on deck. Butler had been cruising along with an 18-3 record before dropping 3 of the last 4 contests. Losses to Providence, Creighton and Georgetown sandwiched between a victory over Marquette. We like to back superior teams after hitting a rough spot, especially at home. Throw in the fact that this is a revenge game for the Bulldogs as it lost 76-73 back at the end of December. Butler has lost back to back home games and this line is very cheap in our eyes. We look for a blowout! PLAY BUTLER |
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02-14-17 | Marist v. St. Peter's -12 | Top | 46-71 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
758 Marist at St Peters The Red Foxes are just 3-12 in the MAAC this season and have lost seven straight heading into this contest. The last time these two met was on January 26th in a 81-65 home loss for Marist. St Peters is a solid 10-6 in league action and have won 8 of 12 heading into this contest. We made the Peacocks a bigger favorite here than the current line and have no problem laying points into a Red Foxes team playing out the string. PLAY ST PETERS |
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02-11-17 | BYU +3.5 v. San Francisco | Top | 68-52 | Win | 100 | 22 h 53 m | Show |
887 BYU at San Francisco The Cougars have won eight straight in this series and this is a key game for both squads. BYU beat San Francisco by 10 at home a month ago and the Cougars normally travel well but are just 2-4 SU on the road this season. That said defense travels and BYU allows a solid 46.7 effective field goal percentage. The Dons have run off 7 of 8 straight up heading into this one, losing at ST Mary’s by 20. San Francisco is a good shooting team but have beaten up on the lesser teams in this conference. We make the Cougars a road favorite of 2.4 here, so obviously we feel the wrong team is favored. PLAY BYU |
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02-07-17 | Syracuse v. Clemson -3 | Top | 82-81 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 50 m | Show |
738 Syracuse at Clemson The Orangemen are getting a lot of press after beating the likes of Florida State and Virginia in the last ten days. But keep in mind this team is only 1-5 straight up on the road this season with the only win coming against NC State. Syracuse has dropped 3 of the 4 meetings with the Tigers SU & ATS. Clemson is coming in off a total embarrassment at Florida State, losing by a whopping 48 points. You can bet this Clemson team will be primed for retribution here. PLAY CLEMSON |
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02-07-17 | Wake Forest v. Notre Dame -6.5 | Top | 81-88 | Win | 100 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
730 Wake Forest at Notre Dame The Demon Deacons have dropped the last three meetings all by double digits. Wake is just 4-5 SU on the road this year. Off back to back wins over the likes of Boston College and Georgia Tech we don’t believe this team has the ability to step up in class here. Wake allows opponents 51.7 effective field goal which is a problem especially on the road. The Irish shoot 6.2% better than the opposition in effective field goals. Coming in here off four straight losses this is a must win contest for the host. The last two times Notre Dame played on this court resulted in losses. The only two home losses this season. The Irish should give its best effort of the season tonight. PLAY NOTRE DAME |
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02-05-17 | Nebraska +6 v. Iowa | Top | 70-81 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
863 Nebraska at Iowa The Cornhuskers have dropped 6 of 7 as of late which gives us a nice advantage on the road here. Even in losses this team has been very competitive. Nebraska beat Iowa earlier at home 93-90 as a 2 1/2 point favorite. Iowa itself has lost 3 of 5 with the victories coming against an inconsistent Ohio State team and a poor Rutgers squad. Despite the revenge motive we can’t back this Hawkeyes team laying points. PLAY NEBRASKA |
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01-31-17 | Manhattan v. Fairfield -2.5 | Top | 49-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
764 Manhattan at Fairfield The Jaspers have picked up its play in the MAAC since losing at home to Fairfield 97-79 early in the month. But in our opinion this line is very short for the host. Despite dropping 5 of 6 we still have the Stags rated as the better team. Fairfield has also cashed 5 of the last 6 meetings hosting Manhattan. Off a confidence building win over Marist we will back the Stags to sweep the season series. PLAY FAIRFIELD |
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01-30-17 | Oklahoma State v. Oklahoma +2 | Top | 68-66 | Push | 0 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
526 Oklahoma State at Oklahoma The Cowboys enter this game as the much hotter team, but this club has really struggled in Norman. The Sooners have cashed 7 straight in this building against Oklahoma State and have won the last seven games between them in straight up fashion. The Cowboys enter play off three great defensive wins against Arkansas, TCU and Texas Tech. But keep in mind it had lost six straight heading into that threesome. Oklahoma is down this year which is something you just can’t overlook. By even so this is still a top 60 squad getting points at home against a hated rival. History has shown that the Sooners rise up in this matchup and we agree the host is the side here. Coming off an embarrassing 32 point loss on this court last time out against Florida, we see a big bounce back here. PLAY OKLAHOMA |
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01-14-17 | St. Mary's v. Gonzaga -7 | Top | 56-79 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
672 St Marys at Gonzaga This rivalry battle comes down to who can dictate the pace. St Mary wants to slow the ball down ranking 350th in the country in adjusted tempo, while the Zags are more middle of the pack. The home team and or favorite normally dictate pace and the would be Gonzaga on both counts. The Zags have dominated this series with its biggest league rival, and St Mary has played the easier schedule of these two. We will ride the host to win this one by double digits. PLAY GONZAGA |
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01-12-17 | Purdue v. Iowa +5 | Top | 78-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
560 Purdue at Iowa The Boilermakers have been the better team as of late and it still struggles with the Hawkeyes, especially on the road. Iowa has been favored just twice in the last ten meetings, yet it has won five of those games outright. At home Iowa has cashed 7 of 8 games including outright underdog wins as 5, 9 and 14 1/2 point underdogs. Purdue has just one outright win in a true road game all season and that was by a single point at Ohio State. Iowa was blown out at Purdue just two weeks ago, we see revenge for the host here. PLAY IOWA |
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01-08-17 | Ohio State +5.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 68-78 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
539 Ohio State at Minnesota The Buckeyes have won 10 of the last 11 meetings in this series and enter here off back to back 5 and 1 point losses to Illinois and Purdue. With a trip to Wisconsin on deck this is an early season must win spot for the Buckeyes. Minnesota enters with an outstanding 14-2 record on the season, winning 8 of the last 9. After road wins at Purdue and Northwestern this club enters play tonight fat and happy. But keep in mind both of these teams have played better on the road than at home this season, so we feel this line is a bit inflated. Look for this one to come down to the wire. PLAY OHIO STATE |
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01-07-17 | San Diego State v. Boise State -3 | Top | 66-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
878 San Diego State at Boise State The Aztecs have owned the Mountain West Conference for years, but Boise has really given them problems as of late. The Broncos have won 3 of the last 4 meetings with defense showing the way in each showdown. When looking at how these teams have done when stepping up this year we find San Diego State 1-2 when facing Top 100 Programs. Losing to Gonzaga badly and Nevada last time out. In fact, if you extend that another ten spots it includes losses to 109 New Mexico and 103 Arizona State. Boise has split top opponents with a win over 28 SMU and a loss at 18 Oregon. Boise has held the Aztecs to 63, 56, 46 and 46 points the last four contests. They get it done again tonight. PLAY BOISE STATE |
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01-05-17 | Murray State +5.5 v. Jacksonville State | Top | 76-63 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
797 Murray State at Jacksonville State The Racers have won 19 out of 20 meetings in this series with the lone loss coming by a single point. While Murray State has struggled on the road our power ratings and overall rankings have the Racers as the better team. Jacksonville State has played an amazingly daunting schedule with this being its second true home game of the season. So while this will be an inspired home fanbase, you have to keep in mind the Gamecocks have played just one more game in this building than tonights opponent. We will take the points here and let history be our guide with the better team. PLAY MURRAY STATE |
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12-19-16 | Belmont -8 v. Wisc-Milwaukee | Top | 62-56 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
743 Belmont at Wisconsin Milwaukee After the Bruins game Saturday was postponed against Green Bay, Belmont has extra rest coming off that 13 point loss to Middle Tennessee State. The Bruins are well tested on the road having already played Vanderbilt, Florida and Rhode Island away from home. Despite the tough schedule Belmont has impressed us with its overall defense, something you want out of a road favorite. Tough start to the year for the Panthers who only own four victories against the Milwaukee School of Engineering, UC Irvine, Jacksonville and Montana State. We have serious concerns about the Milwaukee defense which allows an opponent effective field goal percentage of 57.2. With no shot blocker down low Belmont should have its way in the paint. PLAY BELMONT |
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03-25-16 | Wisconsin +1.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 56-61 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
871 Wisconsin and Notre Dame We saw last night that defense is often overlooked this time of year and it paid off on the scoreboard. Tonight we look for more of the same as Wisconsin has the ability to slow down this Irish squad who likes to run. The Badgers have been terrific away from home this year with wins over the likes of VCU, Syracuse, Maryland and Xavier, four teams that all won a game in this tournament. The Badgers allowed 63 and 43 to Xavier and Pittsburgh in the first two rounds, and permits an effective field goal percentage of 48.2. This team had a long ride in this tourney a year ago and knows how to win close games. The Irish are a good shooting team but Wisconsin is a different defensive animal. Notre Dame was 7-7 against teams that made the tournament, while Wisconsin is 9-6. The Badgers lost key players in the offseason and have gotten better as the year has unfolded. The Badgers are the better team here.PLAY WISCONSIN |
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03-18-16 | Cincinnati v. St Joseph's +2.5 | Top | 76-78 | Win | 100 | 25 h 10 m | Show |
848 Cincinnati & St Josephs |
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03-18-16 | Middle Tennessee v. Michigan State -17.5 | Top | 90-81 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 50 m | Show |
838 Middle Tennessee State & Michigan State |
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03-17-16 | Providence -2 v. USC | Top | 70-69 | Loss | -104 | 23 h 56 m | Show |
727 Providence & USC |
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03-17-16 | Connecticut -3 v. Colorado | Top | 74-67 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
735 Connecticut & Colorado |
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03-16-16 | Tulsa +4 v. Michigan | Top | 62-67 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
621 Tulsa & Michigan We see the same thing occur every year when the at large bids are announced. There is always one team that gets selected that the talking heads continually pound on as an undeserving club. And virtually every year we see that team have success in the Big Dance, many times reaching the Sweet 16. The reason is simple, extra motivation. And the opposing team reads the same quotes and comes in overconfident. That team this year is the Tulsa Golden Hurricane. A highly respected sports book in Vegas released this game at pick ‘em. Others used Michigan -3 as the starting point based on the coaching edge for the Wolverines. Now we are seeing 4’s on the board as the public is following what it heard on television. We will buck the talking heads here and back what we have seen year in and year out. The Golden Hurricanes come to play.PLAY TULSA |
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03-10-16 | TCU v. West Virginia -14.5 | Top | 66-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
746 TCU & West Virginia Tough scheduling situation for the Horned Frogs after giving it all in a victory last night against Texas Tech. Now it takes on the pressuring defense of West Virginia who is rested. The Mountaineers won both earlier meetings handily, so another lopsided win by West Virginia is likely.PLAY WEST VIRGINIA |
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03-05-16 | Texas-San Antonio v. UTEP -13.5 | Top | 74-81 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
568 Texas San Antonio at UTEP |
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03-02-16 | Oregon State v. USC -5.5 | Top | 70-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
766 Oregon State at USC The Beavers are playing pretty well right now but most of that damage has been done at home. This club has just one outright road win all season, beating Stanford in Palo Alto. This club broke a three game losing streak in the first meeting with an 85-70 win on its own court. USC has dropping three straight and 5 of 6 as it still sits at 19 wins on the season. This club is much better at home than on the road and owns the better guard play in this matchup. With first place Oregon left as the final regular season game this is a must win for the Trojans. Home/Road dichotomy gives us an edge here as the host wins this one by double digits.PLAY USC |
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03-01-16 | Utah State v. Air Force +4 | Top | 78-65 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
550 Utah State at Air Force The Aggies have won 13 of the 16 meetings with the Falcons including a 79-60 home win in mid-January. But that was at home and the Aggies have not played well on the road losing five straight games. The defense allows 51.3% effective field goals which gets even worse away from home. Air Force on the other hand are playing its best ball of the season down the stretch. The Falcons have won four straight home games including wins against Boise State and New Mexico. In the final home game of the season we will back our military friends to give an all out effort in revenge.PLAY AIR FORCE |
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02-28-16 | Colorado State v. Nevada -3.5 | Top | 80-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
842 Colorado State at Nevada The Rams won the first game at home 76-67 but these two teams have gone in opposite directions since then. Especially when you look at home/road dichotomy. Colorado State has won just a single game on the conference road, a one point victory against lowly San Jose State. Allowing an effective field goal percentage of 53.1 is weak, doing so on the road is a disaster.Nevada has been a major surprise this season. The team still lacks offensive production but plays solid defense and rebounds. The Wolf Pack’s only home losses came at the hands of Boise State and San Diego State, the best two teams in the league. Look for Nevada to continue its surprising play with a comfortable win here.PLAY NEVADA |
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02-27-16 | Texas A&M v. Missouri +9.5 | Top | 84-69 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
598 Texas A&M at Missouri The Aggies have regrouped with three straight wins and now face a Missouri team that it pounded 66-53 at home just five weeks ago. This Texas A&M team has been much stronger at home than away, losing four straight outright on the road heading into this contest.Missouri is just 10-18 on the season and have dropped 11 of 13 heading into tonight. But the Tigers are better at home and have been very competitive down the stretch. Winners of 2 of 4 with the losses coming by margins of just 12 and 9 on the road. Letdown spot here for the Aggies as Missouri keeps this one competitive.PLAY MISSOURI |
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02-20-16 | Missouri v. Arkansas -12.5 | Top | 72-84 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 3 m | Show |
622 Missouri at Arkansas Despite a 3-10 mark in conference play and off back to back victories we want no part of the Tigers here. Even knowing that this club lost at home to Arkansas 94-61 in the earlier meeting. The worst home loss of the season by the way. No we will not be buying into the embarrassing home loss angle here. The reason is quite simply that the Tigers just don’t shoot well enough to be trusted in the road dog role. At 46.5% effective field goals to go along with just 11.5 assists per game, this team shouldn’t be trusted against a team that completely dominated them in the prior meeting.Arkansas is sitting at two games below .500 after three straight losses. But with a manageable schedule to finish the year the Razorbacks can still post a winning record. This is a club which is much better at home and has a nice 16.6 assists per game mark. Good guard play is the key and that’s a nice advantage when playing at home. Arkansas is 11-3 at home this season but have dropped 2 of 3 in this building as of late. Look for the host to dictate pace here and pull away as the game unfolds.PLAY ARKANSAS |
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02-19-16 | Oakland +8.5 v. Valparaiso | Top | 84-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
879 Oakland at Valparaiso |
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02-18-16 | Wisconsin v. Michigan State -10 | Top | 57-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
548 Wisconsin at Michigan State The Badgers have run off seven straight wins including an impressive victory at Maryland last time out. The winning streak started at the expense of these Spartans in a 77-76 home win for Wisconsin. Now at 8-4 in the Big Ten a lot of people are starting to look at this team as a possible sleeper come tournament time. But we’re not one of those expecting a lot out of this club. Looking at effective field goal percentage the Badgers shoot 49.0% while allowing 48.2%, not what we would call elite by any means. The 11.2 assists per game adds to the concern about a lengthy run. Michigan State actually trails in the conference race with an 8-5 mark, but the shooting numbers show a much better team. Looking at effective field goal percentage we see the Spartans at 55.7% while allowing 42.1%, those are elite numbers. Throw in the fact that Michigan State averages 20.7 assists a game and we have a squad that is able to go all the way. Only twice this season have the Spartans lost a game by more than a single point. Revenge puts Michigan State over the top in this one.PLAY MICHIGAN STATE |
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02-15-16 | NC State +12 v. Virginia | Top | 53-73 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
701 NC State at Virginia Despite just a 13-12 record on the season our power ratings we use have this team ranked 60th in the country. A tough schedule has cost this team wins but the Wolfpack are a quality basketball team. While on a disappointing 3-9 run this club has been very competitive. Losing by 12 points or less in every contest during this so called down streak. All of Virginia’s five losses this year have come on the road, which makes this a very tough place to play for the visitor. But the style of play the Cavaliers use makes it very hard to distance themselves in low scoring games. Coming off a tight single point loss at Duke on Saturday will be tough to come down from. Virginia will win but the Wolfpack will make them fight to every point.PLAY NC STATE |
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02-14-16 | Washington State v. Utah -16 | Top | 47-88 | Win | 100 | 5 h 0 m | Show |
858 Washington State at Utah |
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02-10-16 | St. Joe's +4.5 v. George Washington | Top | 84-66 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
535 St Josephs at George Washington |
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02-09-16 | Wichita State -17.5 v. Drake | Top | 74-48 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
737 Wichita State at Drake |
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01-13-16 | San Diego State -3 v. Colorado State | Top | 69-62 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
573 San Diego State at Colorado State The Aztecs played very inconsistently in the non-conference portion of its schedule with losses to Arkansas Little Rock, San Diego and Grand Canyon. But when conference season starts you know San Diego State will be at its best. Now a perfect 3-0 to start the season and an impressive road resume with wins at Utah State, Long Beach State and a close loss at Utah. Steve Fisher’s teams always play ugly, but they know how to win. Colorado State doesn’t have the talent of some of the other teams in the league, but it does play with heart, especially at home. Coming off winning 4 of the last 5 games the Rams will come into this game confident. The problem is the victories came against South Carolina Upstate, Regis University, UNLV right before firing its coach and San Jose State, the worst team in the league. Colorado State permits an effective field goal percentage of 51.6 compared to an outstanding 42.0% for the Aztecs. Defense wins this one as San Diego State remains undefeated in conference.PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE |
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01-07-16 | Arizona v. UCLA +3 | Top | 84-87 | Win | 101 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
750 Arizona at UCLA The Wildcats swept the Bruins last year so this game has been circled by the hosts. Now sitting at 0-2 in the conference after losses at Washington and Washington State, this is a must win for the Bruins. Coach Alford called his team out as a weak group earlier in the week, so the players should be a fired up bunch tonight.Arizona has been outstanding thus far and are off a road win against in-state rival Arizona State. The Wildcats shoot the ball well and defend extremely well, but the Bruins aren’t bad themselves in those areas. We expect the home crowd to be fired up here as the Bruins put themselves back into the national spotlight.PLAY UCLA |