At 8 pm, on Monday, January 11, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes + the points over Alabama.  This selection certainly won't come as a surprise to anyone who joined us for our huge play on the Buckeyes + over Clemson.  In my discussion of that game, I highlighted that Ohio State was 13-0 ATS its last 13 as underdogs of more than 3 points.  Well, after its 49-28 blowout of Clemson, that mark is now 14-0 ATS its last 14.  Ohio State just destroyed Trevor Lawrence & Co., so why not Mac Jones, DeVonta Smith, et al?  It's true that Alabama didn't play its best game vs. Notre Dame.  The Tide went up 28-7 on a Jones-to-Smith TD pass, with 4:58 left in the 3rd quarter, but never scored another TD.  They did tack on a 4th quarter field goal, but a late touchdown by Notre Dame rewarded Irish bettors.  I was one of those bettors, as I took Notre Dame + the large number.  And we'll grab the points here, as well.  For technical support, consider that .928 (or better) teams are 0-9 ATS in the post-season as a favorite of less than 13 points vs. foes off a momentum-building upset win.  Additionally, I love playing on bowl underdogs with good defenses, and strong rushing attacks.  This season, Ohio State's offensive YPR is 6.0, while Bama's is 5.1, and each gives up 3.2 YPR on defense.  The Buckeyes' relative Total YPR is +0.927.  With this as a backdrop, consider that Bowl underdogs of more than 4 points, with a powerful rushing attack that garners 6+ yards per rush, have cashed 89% in the bowls since 1993, while single-digit bowl underdogs have gone 123-83-3 ATS if their defense gave up 22 or less ppg, and their relative YPR (yards per rush) was better than their opponent's.  Take Ohio State + the points in the Championship game on Monday, Jan. 11.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi Rebels + the points over Indiana.  The 4-5 Rebels have been installed as a huge underdog vs. Indiana, which finished #11 in the final CFP rankings, and #7 in the AP Poll.  And, by my numbers, it's an overlay.  It's true that Lane Kiffin's Rebels were upset at LSU to end their regular season.  And that may keep a number of bettors away from the Ole Miss side.  But teams off upset defeats have gone 65.8% ATS in the Bowls since 1981 if they were playing at a home or neutral site, and their opponent wasn't off an upset loss.  That bodes well for Ole Miss on Saturday.  As does the fact that SEC Conference underdogs of +3 (or more) points are a perfect 11-0 ATS in the post-season if they lost their previous game, and their opponent was off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Grab the points with Ole Miss!  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Kentucky Wildcats minus the points over North Carolina State.  The Wildcats were 4-6 on the season, while NC State was 8-3.  Yet Kentucky played the MUCH MORE difficult schedule (comprised wholly of SEC Conference foes), which is why it is favored by a small amount this afternoon.  Indeed, Kentucky's six losses were to such powers as Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, Florida, Ole Miss and Missouri.  We'll take the team from the stronger conference, as SEC Conference teams are 73-47 ATS in the bowls when not laying 3+ points, or off back to back SU/ATS wins.  Meanwhile, the Wolfpack are 3-12 ATS their last 15 away from home, including 0-6 ATS when the line was less than 7 points.  Take Kentucky to blow out NC State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes + the points over Clemson.  The Buckeyes were provided a lot of bulletin board material from the words of Clemson coach, Dabo Swinney.  And I'm sure the Ohio State team wasn't happy to hear Swinney's thoughts.  But, at the end of the day, when the players take the field, those words stay behind on the bulletin board, and a team's success (or failure) will largely come down to execution.  And over the last decade, it's hard to find a team which is better at execution than three of the four teams in this NCAA Football semi-final (Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State).  Those three programs have been heads-and-shoulders above their brethren for years.  And one of the lessons gleaned over the years is that you don't want to give ANY of these team points -- regardless of the talent on the other side.  To wit:  the Buckeyes are 15-3 ATS their last 18 as underdogs, including 13-0 ATS when getting more than 3 points!  (Likewise, Alabama is 12-7-1 ATS its last 20 as an underdog, and Clemson is 33-13 its last 46 as a dog.)  Last year, of course, when these two teams met in the semifinal round, Ohio State did suffer a rare ATS defeat as an underdog (one of the Buckeyes' three ATS losses of their last 18 as underdogs).  But Ohio State was only getting 2.5 in that game.  And it only lost by six.  So, if it was getting the number of points as it is in tonight's game, then it would have covered.  So, yes, Clemson has the much better quarterback, and the better overall team.  But so did most of the last 13 opponents the Buckeyes faced when they were installed as an underdog greater than 3 points.  And Ohio State still managed to cover the spread in each of them.  The bottom line is that there's too much success on the side of the Buckeyes as an underdog (or with any of the NCAA blue bloods) to lay a significant amount of points to them.  Now, it's also true that Ohio State struggled in the Big 10 Championship game vs. Northwestern, and mustered just 22 points in a 12-point win (as a 16.5-point favorite).  But the Buckeyes are a fantastic 53-25 ATS after scoring 24 or less points in their previous game.  Take Ohio State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish + the points over Alabama.  The Irish come into this game off a blowout loss at the hands of Clemson, 34-10.  That was Notre Dame's first loss of the season.  And one of the things I love to do in the Bowls is take teams that haven't lost more than 1 time on the season, if they're an underdog, and off an ATS defeat.  Since 1980, these teams have covered 61.2% in the Bowls.  Additionally, big Bowl underdogs of +16 (or more) points have covered 70% over the past 41 years.  And Bowl teams with defenses that give up 21 or less points have gone 64-37 ATS off a SU loss, if their opponent was off a SU win.  Take the Irish + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats + the points over Georgia.  The Bearcats are giving up just 16 points per game, and have yet to taste defeat on the season.  And that bodes well for the Bearcats as, in the Bowls, .680 (or better) teams have covered 65.3% over the last 41 years, if they surrendered, on average, less points than their opponent, and were getting 7+ points in the game.  Moreover,  SEC Conference teams have covered just five of 19 Bowls when installed as a favorite, if they won their previous game before the Bowl season.  And American Athletic Conference teams off a SU win have gone 43-22 ATS vs. non-conference foes with a scoring margin of +13 (or better), including 8-1 ATS when priced from +7.5 to +13.5 points.  Take Cincy + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Ball State Cardinals + the points over San Jose State.  Both teams come into this game off big upset wins in their respective conference championship game.  Ball State claimed the Mid-American Conference title with a 38-28 upset of Buffalo, as 12-point underdogs.  And that was Ball State's sixth straight win, and fourth straight ATS win.  Likewise, the undefeated (7-0) Spartans won the Mountain West Conference for the first time in their history when they upset Boise State, 34-20, as a 6.5-point underdog in the title game.  Unfortunately, .500 (or better) Mountain West favorites have been dreadful vs. .500 (or better) non-conference foes when both teams entered the game off a SU win, as the Mountain West has cashed just 25 of 80 games.  That doesn't bode well for San Jose today.  Nor does the fact that bowl favorites of more than 6 points have gone 0-6 ATS off an upset win in their conference title game.  Or that .850 (or better) bowl underdogs of +7 (or more) points have cashed 69% in the bowls since 1980 against foes off SU/ATS wins.  But the clincher is that .800 (or better) bowl teams off an upset win (like Ball State) have gone 12-0 ATS their last 12 when not favored by more than 4 points.  Take the Cardinals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, on Thursday, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs + the points over Tulsa.  Mike Leach has always been one of my favorite football coaches, with his Air Raid offenses at Texas Tech and Washington State.  This was his first year in Starkville and, although his 3-7 season was his worst since Washington State's 3-9 record in 2014, he was able to lead the Bulldogs to their 11th straight Bowl appearance.  Miss State will face the 6-2 Golden Hurricane, which bookended two losses against Oklahoma State (in their season opener) and Cincinnati (in the AAC Championship game) with a six-game win streak in the middle.  And Tulsa was 7-1 ATS, and covered by an average of 10.5 ppg.  But Leach has been at his best when matched up against opponents with much better records, as he's gone 16-4-1 ATS vs. foes that owned a win percentage at least 40% better than his team, including a perfect 9-0-1 ATS if that foe covered the spread for the season by at least 10 ppg.  Even worse for Tulsa:  teams that lost their conference title game have gone 10-25 ATS in their next game against foes that did not lose a title game, including 1-10 ATS when priced as a favorite of 7 or less points!  Finally, the American Athletic Conference has not had great success vs. the SEC, as its teams have gone 1-5 ATS in the Bowls, and 1-9 ATS their last 10 away from home (including a 23-0 loss by Tulsa at Arkansas two seasons ago).  Meanwhile, the SEC has gone 8-1 ATS its last nine as Bowl underdogs.  Take Mississippi State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons + the points over Wisconsin.  Wake Forest ended its season with back to back losses to North Carolina and Louisville.  But both of those were road games; the Demon Deacons were 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS at home, or on neutral fields this season.  And NCAA teams have gone 34-20 ATS in the Bowls if they lost their last two games away from home to end their season.  Meanwhile, the Badgers ended on an 0-4 ATS run, and they lost three of their last four straight-up.  It's hard to make a case for laying points with Wisconsin, as .666 (or worse) teams have been historically poor in the Bowls when laying more than 7 points (33-61-2 ATS).  And Bowl teams off 4 ATS losses have gone 13-26-1 ATS when priced from +3 to -13 points.  Take Wake Forest + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 5:30 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Miami Hurricanes over the Oklahoma State Cowboys.  Miami was annihilated in its last game, an embarrassing 36-point upset loss to the North Carolina Tar Heels.  Meanwhile, the Cowboys blew out Baylor, 42-3.  On the surface, it may look easy to play on Okie State given the results of the two teams' most recent games.  But consider that teams off a loss by 23+ points have actually covered 71% in the post-season over the past 41 years when matched up against an opponent off a 23+ point victory, including 7-0 ATS their last seven when the game was competitively-priced with a point spread less than 3 points.  Moreover, Miami's an awesome 12-0 ATS away from home off a loss when it was an underdog of +10 or less points , and its opponent was off a SU win.  Take the Hurricanes in the Cheez-It Bowl.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, in the LendingTree Bowl, our selection is on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers + the points over Georgia State.  This is another "offense vs defense" matchup in the Bowls.  The Panthers are the offensive-minded team, as they score 32.7 ppg (against foes that give up 27.7), while the Hilltoppers are the defensive-minded squad, as they give up just 18 ppg (against foes that score 24.1 ppg).  And, as faithful followers know, in College Football, I will take the points with the better defensive team more often than not.  Indeed, post-season favorites of 5 or less points, with defenses that give up more than 3 points than their opponent's defense, have gone 6-29 ATS.  The Hilltoppers come into this game off back to back double-digit blowout wins against Florida International and Charlotte.  And the Hilltoppers are 24-11 ATS off back to back wins, including 6-0 ATS when priced from +3 to +6 points.  Take Western Kentucky.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners + the points over Louisiana-Lafayette.  The Cajuns come into this game off an upset road win at Appalachian State, and have been installed as a two-touchdown favorite vs. the Roadrunners in this First Responder Bowl game in Dallas, Texas.  But off that upset victory, we will fade the Cajuns on Saturday afternoon.  Indeed, favorites of more than 9 points off a road win have gone 2-16 ATS away from home in a bowl game.  That doesn't bode well for Louisiana on Saturday.  Nor does the fact that it's covered just 2 of 8 (and just 9 of 25) as favorites of more than 13 points.  Finally, Sun Belt Conference teams are a horrid 15-38 ATS as favorites of -3 (or more) points vs. non-conference foes.  Take the Roadrunners + the points.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd + the points over Buffalo.  Both of these teams come into this Christmas Day game off upset losses.  Marshall was defeated, 22-13, by UAB, as a 4.5-point favorite.  Meanwhile, the Bulls were 5-0, and favored by double-digits in the Mid-American Conference championship game last weekend, but fell by 10 points to Ball State, 38-28.  Unfortunately for the Bulls, NCAA Bowl favorites generally don't bounce back from Conference Championship game blowout losses, as they're 12-28 ATS off a double-digit loss in their Conference Title game.  Even worse:  Buffalo's favored in this game, even though its defense rates poorer than Marshall's.  The Bulls have given up 23.8 ppg (against foes that average 27.7).  And while that's really good, Marshall's has been much better, as it's only given up 12.6 ppg (against foes that average 21 ppg).  We'll grab the points with the Herd, as NCAA Bowl teams -- not favored by more than 10 points -- have cashed 65 of 95 if their defense gave up less than 14.7 ppg, and their defense also gave up at least 5.83 ppg less than their opponent's.  Even better:  if our 'play-on' team (here, Marshall) failed to cover its previous game by more than 8 points, then our 65-30 ATS angle zooms to 14-1 ATS!  Finally, dating back 15 years, Mid-American Conference teams have gone 3-15 SU and 5-12-1 ATS vs. Conference USA foes in the Bowls, including 0-7 ATS vs. foes off a straight-up loss.  Take Marshall + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors + the points over Houston.  For the season, the Cougars had a losing record (3-4), a negative scoring margin (-0.28), a negative ATS record (3-4 ATS), and a negative point spread differential (-4.14).  Yet they find themselves hefty favorites this afternoon vs. the Rainbow Warriors.  We will fade Houston, as Bowl favorites (or PK), with a negative scoring margin, and a point spread differential of -1.75 (or worse) have covered a paltry 26.3% over the last 41 seasons.  Even worse:  Houston's defense surrenders north of 32.5 ppg.  Unfortunately, Bowl favorites (or PK) with a defense that gives up more than 31.5 ppg have gone 0-17 ATS their last 17.  Take Hawaii + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Florida Atlantic Owls + the points over Memphis.  The Owls are giving up just 16.5 points per game (against oppoents that average 22.8), and have a much better defense than do the Tigers.  Memphis surrenders 29.7 ppg (against foes that average 29.4).  Last week, we played on Northwestern against Ohio State, and what I wrote then in my analysis also applies here.  Basically, when wagering on post-season games, it's dangerous to give the much better defensive team a lot of points, as underdogs of 7+ points that surrender at least 7 less points than their opponent have covered 73% over the last 41 years.  Florida Atlantic is 6-0 SU/ATS its last six post-season games, while Memphis is 1-7 straight-up and 0-8 ATS its last eight post-season games.  Take the Owls as a big underdog this evening.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the the North Texas Mean Green + the points over Appalachian State.  This match-up pits Conference USA against the Sun Belt Conference.  The 8-3 Mountaineers (from the Sun Belt) have been installed as a huge favorite over 4-5 North Texas in this Myrtle Beach Bowl game.  But, as I've often written, it's treacherous to lay a lot of points in the Bowls.  Indeed, underdogs of +16 or more points are now 14-4 ATS their last 18.  Even worse for Appalachian State:  .500 (or better) Sun Belt Conference teams are 2-18-1 ATS when favored against a non-conference foe, if its opponent is off a SU win.  And, dating back to last season, Appalachian State is now 0-6 ATS its last six games played away from home.  Take North Texas + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats minus the points over Tulsa.  The Golden Hurricane have been a point spread powerhouse this season, as they're 6-1 ATS.  And we've benefited greatly, as we played on Tulsa in each of its last three games (3-0 ATS), while never going against it this season.  But the Golden Hurricane are in a horrible spot here, as they have to play the AAC Title game on Cincinnati's home field.  They also played here last season, and lost 24-13. which was their fourth straight loss here in Cincinnati (and 2nd straight since each team joined the AAC).  Of course, the fact that Tulsa hasn't won here shouldn't come as a surprise, as the Bearcats have dominated opponents at home.  Cincy's currently riding a 19-game home win streak, and has gone 11-4 ATS its last 15, including a perfect 6-0 ATS vs. foes off a double-digit win.  Even better for Cincy:  it's 10-0 ATS its last 10 at home when priced from -10 to -21 points against an opponent off a win, and it's 46-24-1 ATS at home since 1990 vs. foes off a win.  But the clincher is that road teams that were on a 4-game (or better) win streak are a horrid 0-8 SU/ATS when playing with revenge in the post-season!  Take the Bearcats to blow out Tulsa.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Florida Gators + the points over Alabama.  The Gators suffered a huge upset loss last week when they fell, 37-34, at home vs. LSU.  And Florida was favored by 24 points in that game!  The knee-jerk reaction might be to go against Florida, and lay the points with Alabama.  After all, the Crimson Tide currently have the best ATS (net profit) record in the country (tied with Coastal Carolina), at 8-2 ATS.  But great point spread records don't equate with success in Title games, as teams with a .750 (or better) ATS record have only covered 40% of Conference Championship games.  Additionally, .666 (or better) college football underdogs of more than 7 points, off an upset conference loss at home, have gone 41-15 ATS.  And NCAA teams that gave up more than 31 points in defeat in their previous game, have covered the spread in 71% of Conference title games.  Take Florida + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over Minnesota.  The Golden Gophers went into Lincoln, Nebraska last week, and upset the Cornhuskers, 24-17, as an 8-point road underdog.  But this is a horrible situation for the Gophers, as the Badgers come into this Saturday afternoon game on a rare 3-game losing streak.  Even worse for the Badgers:  they were favored in each of those games, and scored just 7, 6 and 7 points in those defeats.  But we'll take Wisky to bounce back here, at home, as double-digit home favorites, off back to back SU/ATS losses, have cashed 71% over the last 41 years vs. foes off a SU/ATS win, if our home team was off an upset defeat in its previous game.  Additionally, this will be Wisconsin's final home game of the season.  And it's 24-13 ATS in its final game at home when matched up against a Big 10 foe, including 8-4 ATS off a SU loss.  Meanwhile, Minnesota is a wallet-busting 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS on the road when getting 11+ points against an opponent off an upset loss.  Take Wisconsin minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi Rebels + the points over LSU.  Last week, the Tigers upset then-No. 6-ranked Florida, 37-34.  And LSU was a 24-point underdog in that game!  Can Ed Orgeron's men make it two-upsets-in-a-row?  I wouldn't bet on it, as defending National Champions are a soft 96-126-2 ATS off a SU/ATS win.  Even worse, if our defending champs pulled off an upset in their previous game, then those teams are a woeful 4-12 ATS, including 0-5 SU/ATS if they weren't favored by 3+ points in the current game.  That doesn't bode well for LSU on Saturday afternoon.  Nor does the fact that College football home teams have covered just 10 of 35 games off an upset win, if they were an underdog of 20+ points in their previous game.  And LSU is a wallet-busting 2-11 ATS off a road upset win.  It's true that LSU has won the last four meetings by 21, 29, 16 and 17 points.  But Ole Miss is a solid 31-17-1 ATS when playing on the road with revenge vs. an opponent off a win.  And revenge-minded SEC Conference teams, with a .500 (or better) record, are 30-13 ATS as a favorite away from home, including a perfect 10-0 ATS when priced from -2 to -4.5 points.  Take Lane Kiffin's Rebels to blow out LSU.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks + the points over Southern Cal.  There's a saying that it's "better to be lucky than good."  And that might end up applying to the Oregon Ducks, if they can take advantage of their good fortune to be playing in this Pac-12 Championship game.  After all, Oregon finished 2nd to Washington in the Pac-12 North division.  But COVID-19 issues scuttled Washington's plans, so Oregon was tabbed to replace Washington as USC's opponent.  It's true the Ducks have dropped their last two games, while USC is 5-0 straight-up, and has covered each of their last three.  But single-digit underdogs off a straight-up loss are 9-1 ATS their last 10 in Conference Title game.  And the Ducks are 5-2 SU/ATS their last seven vs. the Trojans.  Take Oregon + the points.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Virginia Tech Hokies minus the points over Virginia.  The Cavaliers are 5-4 on the season, and enter this Commonwealth rivalry game on a 4-game win streak (and 5-game ATS win streak), while the Hokies have lost their last four games SU/ATS.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the red-hot underdog Cavaliers.  But consider that road teams off a SU win, that were also on a 3-game ATS win streak, have covered just 50 of 124 conference games against foes off a SU loss, that were on a 3-game ATS losing streak.  And if our road team owned a winning record, and was an underdog of 7 or less points, then our road teams have gone 0-12 SU and 1-11 ATS.  Take Virginia Tech minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys + the points over Boise State.  The Cowboys were upset at home, 17-16, by New Mexico in their last game.  And Wyoming was favored by more than two touchdowns!  But off that horrible game, we'll take the Cowboys to bounce back on Saturday as a big home underdog.  Indeed, over the last 30 seasons, NCAA home underdogs of more than 7 points, off an upset loss as a favorite of more than 12, have cashed 73%.  And Wyoming's also cashed 75% since 1980 as a conference home underdog off an upset loss.  Take the points with Wyoming.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils + the points over Florida State.  The Blue Devils were shut out, 48-0, at home by Miami last weekend, which was their 3rd straight loss (both SU and ATS).  But conference road underdogs off home shutout defeats have bounced back to cover 57% over the last 41 years.  Likewise, Florida State comes into this game on a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak.  However, that's not too surprising, as it's been several years since the Seminoles have been a good point spread team.  And they've been especially poor when matched up against an ACC conference rival which wasn't off a SU/ATS win.  Now, if Florida State was playing a conference foe which DID win and cover its previous game, Florida State has actually had a winning ATS ledger in those games, as those opponents tended to suffer letdowns.  But when its ACC opponent DIDN'T win and cover its previous game, then Florida State is a horrid 29-59-4 ATS.  But that's not the worst part.  If the Seminoles were favored by 17 points or less (or PK), then they've gone 10-40-3 ATS.  Yikes!  Take Duke + the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes minus the points over North Carolina.  Last week, Miami went into Durham, and shut out Duke, 48-0, as a 13.5-point road favorite.  Suffice it to say, when a college football team shuts out its opponent on the road, then it's playing really well.  And one of the last things I will ever do is step in front of a team which just pitched a road shutout.  Indeed, these teams have gone 192-128-9 ATS in the regular season since 1980 (60%), including 18-1 ATS their last 19 when favored by 11 points or less, and off a win by 34+ points.  Take Miami to blow out North Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Troy Trojans + the points over Coastal Carolina.  Last week, the 9-0 Chanticleers faced off with the 9-0 BYU Cougars.  The Chanticleers were double-digit underdogs, but pulled off the upset, 22-17.  However, teams that win "Battles of Unbeatens" -- at Game 8 forward -- tend to have letdowns in their following game, and have done especially poor when favored by double-digits off an upset win, as they've gone 0-7 ATS their last seven.  Even worse for Coastal:  the Trojans are 15-5-1 ATS vs. foes off an upset win, including 7-1-1 ATS at home, and 6-1 ATS as an underdog.  Take the Trojans + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bulls minus the points over Akron.  The Bulls slaughtered Kent St, 70-41, in their last game, as a 7.5-point favorite.  And Buffalo is averaging 50.75 points on the season.  Faithful followers know I love playing on college football teams that can score.  And, over the last 41 years, home teams that average more than 50 points per game on offense, have covered 63.5% vs. losing teams, if our home team was favored by less than 45 points (and 75% if our team scored 65+ in its previous game).  That bodes well for the Bulls on Saturday.  As does the fact that Akron has covered just four of its last 19 games as an underdog, while Buffalo is 14-0 ATS its last 14 home games vs. Mid-American conference rivals.  Take Buffalo minus the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points over Michigan State.  We played on the Nitts last week as our biggest play of the season-to-date, and were rewarded with an easy win over Rutgers.  After starting the season 0-5, Penn State's won its last two games, and I look for it to make it three-in-a-row on this Saturday.  And it's a perfect situational spot for the Nitts, as Michigan State will be playing its final road game of the season off three straight home games!  Since 1980, teams playing their final game of the season on the road have covered just 28% of the time, if they played their three previous games at home, and their opponent was off a point spread win.  Even better for Penn State:  it's 11-2 ATS in its final home game of the season when priced from -9 to -23 points.  The Nittany Lions were a better team than reflected in their 0-5 start, and that was evident last weekend.  We'll take Penn State to close out the season strong in Happy Valley.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Florida Atlantic Owls minus the points over Southern Miss.  Last week, Willie Taggart's Owls were upset by Georgia Southern, 20-3, as a 2.5-point road favorite.  But off that loss, we'll step in and lay the points with Florida Atlantic tonight, as Taggart's teams in his coaching career (Western Kentucky, South Florida, Oregon, Florida State and Florida Atlantic) have gone 45-31 ATS in conference games, and have also cashed 75% in his career off an upset loss.  Even better:  Conference USA teams have gone 13-0 ATS as road favorites priced from -8.5 to -24 points off an upset defeat.  Finally, Southern Miss is a woeful 4-18 ATS at home vs. a foe off a point spread loss.  Take Florida Atlantic minus the points.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Duke Blue Devils + the points over Miami (Fla).  Miami enters tonight's game on a 4-game win streak, after upsetting Virginia Tech, 25-24, in Blacksburg back on November 14.  Duke's also played just one game over the previous three weekends, but its game came last Saturday when it lost at Georgia Tech, 56-33, as a 2.5-point road favorite.  Overall, the Blue Devils are 2-7 this season, and have dropped their last two games (both SU and ATS).  We'll grab the double-digits with the Blue Devils, as ACC teams are 29-8 ATS off back to back losses when playing a conference foe at home, or on a neutral field, if that foe was off 4+ wins.  Even better:  the Hurricanes are a wallet-busting 11-32 ATS when not playing the previous week, including 0-9 ATS their last nine.  Take the points with Duke.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Wildcats + the points over Colorado.  It's true that the Buffaloes are 3-0 SU/ATS, while Arizona is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS after getting blown out at UCLA last weekend.  But we'll step in and take the winless Wildcats as a big home underdog on Saturday evening.  Indeed, over the last 41 years, it's been profitable to play against teams that were undefeated in conference play (with a 2-0 or better record), if they were playing away from home against a team which was winless in conference play (with an 0-2 or worse record).  And if our road team also was off an ATS win, while its opponent was off an ATS loss, then our system has cashed 62% since 1980.  Arizona is a solid 27-15 ATS off a loss when playing an opponent off a SU/ATS win, including 15-6 ATS at home.  Take the points with the Wildcats.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Washington Huskies minus the points over Stanford. Both of these teams come into this game off narrow wins last weekend.  The Huskies defeated Utah, 24-21, while Stanford got by rival California, 24-23.  Last year, the Cardinal shocked the Huskies, 23-13, as 12.5-point home underdogs.  But you know what they say about "paybacks!"  And Washington is in prime position to avenge that loss on this Saturday, as they fall into a great 59-29 ATS revenge system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded teams that were upset the previous season.  Stanford is a wallet-busting 0-6-2 ATS away from Palo Alto its last eight, and 0-4-1 ATS its last five when playing a foe with revenge.  Meanwhile, Washington is a fantastic 24-5 SU and 22-7 ATS when not getting 3 points vs. an opponent off a SU win, if the game was at home or on a neutral field (and 15-0 ATS if the Huskies didn't win their previous game by two touchdowns or more).  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over Indiana.  The Hoosiers won their sixth straight game against the spread last Saturday, and look to move their season ATS record to 7-0 when they travel to Madison this afternoon.  Unfortunately for the Hoosiers, they lost their 1st string quarterback last week when Michael Penix Jr. suffered an ACL injury.  Thus, sophomore QB Jack Tuttle, who was 5-for-5 (for 34 yards) in relief of Penix Jr. last week, will get the start under center.  But the greater problem for Indiana today will be the fact that its opponent -- Wisconsin -- is not only a very talented team, but will be in an ornery mood off its upset loss last Saturday at Northwestern.  The Badgers are 11-6 ATS in Big 10 Conference games when they were off a loss, while Indiana's a horrid 15-30 ATS on the Big 10 road when playing a foe off a loss, including 1-11 ATS when priced from +9 to +19 points!  Finally, for technical support, consider that underdogs off a SU win, that have a point spread record of 5-0 (or better) have cashed just 33% since 1980, including just 18% vs. opponents off a SU loss.  Take Wisconsin minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane minus the points over Navy.  Tulsa's won its last five games since opening up with a respectable 16-7 loss at a very good Oklahoma State team.  And Tulsa's also 5-1 ATS this season, including another cover in their last game -- a 30-24 victory over Tulane.  And it's been perfect on the road, as it's 3-0 ATS this season, and 28-11 ATS away from Tulsa since 2014.  This afternoon, Tulsa's been installed as a double-digit road favorite at Navy.  Now, it's true that the Midshipmen might be the best traveler in College Football.  Dating back to 1988, they're 127-70-4 ATS.  Unfortunately for its home fans (at least for those who wager on games), Navy's burned money at home, in Annapolis.  And they've been especially poor vs. opponents off a SU/ATS win, as they've covered just 9 of 41 since 1988, including 0-17-2 ATS when priced from -4 to +14 points.  Yikes!  Take Tulsa minus the points.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the Troy Trojans minus the points over South Alabama.  The Trojans are favored on the road vs. the Jaguars, notwithstanding the fact they've lost their last three games SU/ATS (including a 47-10 blowout at Appalachian St. last Saturday), while the Jaguars check in off a 38-31 upset win last week at Arkansas State.  And that's key, as NCAA road favorites have cashed 65.5% over the past 41 years off 3 SU losses, if they were playing a conference foe off a win!  But that's not the best part.  If our road favorite also failed to cover each of their 3 previous games, then our 65.5% ATS angle zooms to 90% ATS since 1980.  Throw in the fact that Troy is an awesome 10-0 ATS as favorites of -3 (or more) after losing their previous game by more than 28 points, and we have all the ammunition we need to load up on the Trojans today.  Lay it.

At 12 Noon on Saturday, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points over Rutgers.  The Nittany Lions got off the schneid last week when they won and covered the spread for the first time all season (after five failures), on the road in Ann Arbor.  For me, that was a big "buy signal" as, in college football, when teams open the season with 3+ ATS losses, they generally do well after their initial ATS cover when playing a team off a SU/ATS win, itself.  The Scarlet Knights also won on the road last week, as they pulled off a major upset with a 37-30 triumph in West Lafayette vs. the Purdue Boilermakers, as a 13-point underdog.  They're now 2-4 SU and 4-2 ATS.  Unfortunately for Rutgers, double-digit home dogs have covered just 33.9% after pulling off an upset as a double-digit road dog.  And home dogs have also just cashed 37.1% over the last 41 seasons when they've owned both a better win percentage and ATS win percentage than their opponent.  Penn State has won the last 13 games in this series, and 12 of the 13 have been by a margin larger than the current point spread!  Indeed, the last five victories were by 25, 39, 29, 13 and 21 points.  The Nittany Lions fall into terrific 98-27 and 171-84 ATS systems of mine that play on certain road favorites off wins.  Lay the points with the Nittany Lions.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Michigan State.  We played on the Spartans last week vs. Northwestern, and they rewarded us with an outright win as a 13.5-point home underdog, 29-20.  But off that major upset, we'll go against the Green and White this Saturday afternoon.  Indeed, over the last 41 years, double-digit home dogs have covered just 36% vs. foes off a win, if our home dog won outright by 7+ points as a 7-point (or greater) home dog the previous week.  Even worse:  Big 10 teams have gone 4-24 SU and 7-20-1 ATS vs. Ohio State after an upset win the previous game, including 1-9-1 ATS when getting 18+ points.  Take the Buckeyes to massacre Michigan State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over South Carolina.  The Bulldogs lost last year at home to these Gamecocks, even though the Bulldogs were favored in that game by 20.5 points.  But you know what they say about "paybacks."  And I fully expect Georgia to avenge last year's loss, as it has gone 17-0-2 ATS when playing with revenge and favored by less than 30 points.  Take Georgia to crush South Carolina.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Texas A&M Aggies minus the points over LSU.  Last season, the Tigers annihilated the Aggies, 50-7.  Of course, LSU was a better team last year, as it won the national championship.  This season is a much different story, and the Tigers have been installed as a double-digit road underdog on Saturday night.  We'll fade LSU off its 27-24 win at Arkansas last week, as defending national champs have gone 0-11 ATS as an underdog of more than 3 points off a conference win.  Meanwhile SEC teams off a conference win are a poor 5-15 ATS when playing away from home against a revenge-minded Texas A&M squad.  Lay the points with the Aggies.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Kansas State Wildcats + the points over Baylor.  We had a big play last week on Iowa State against Kansas State, and were rewarded with a 45-0 shutout win.  But we will reverse course this evening and take the Wildcats off that whitewash.  Indeed, Kansas State is 19-0 ATS vs. Big 12 Conference foes if Kansas State owned a .375 (or better) win percentage, lost its previous game by 20+ points, and was not an underdog of 7+ points in the current game.  That bodes well for the Wildcats in Waco this evening.  As does the fact that the Bears are 4-26 ATS off a conference loss, if they weren't favored by 7+ points against an opponent off a double-digit loss. 

At 4 pm, our selection is on Mississippi minus the points over Mississippi State.  The Rebels had last weekend off following back to back SU/ATS wins over Vanderbilt and South Carolina.  And that bodes well for them in this game, as rested teams, off back to back wins, in which they scored 45+ points, have gone 37-14 ATS.  Last season, the Bulldogs upset the Rebels, 21-20, which was the second straight year this rivalry game was won by the Bulldogs.  But the revenge-minded team has gone 24-14 ATS in this series, including a perfect 4-0 ATS at home when playing with double-revenge.  Take Ole Miss minus the points this afternoon

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Alabama Crimson Tide minus the points over Auburn.  Alabama's 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS this season, and has covered its last four.  And none of those games has been close, as the Tide has won by 17, 31, 41 and 60 points.  Today, they'll host rival Auburn, which upset them last season, as a 3.5-point home underdog.  I love Alabama to avenge that defeat, as Nick Saban's teams have gone 26-12 ATS when they were playing with revenge from a loss in a game coached by Saban (and a perfect 10-0 ATS if their foe's Win Percentage was between .701 and .999).  Take Alabama.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers minus the points over Pittsburgh.  Since they lost at Notre Dame three weeks ago, the Tigers have not played a game.  So, they'll have had plenty of time to rest up for this game.  We'll lay the points with the Tigers, as winning teams that won 10+ games the previous season have covered 57% of the time over the last 41 seasons off an upset loss, if they were matched up against a foe off a SU win.  Clemson is 14-7-1 ATS when it was playing with rest.  Take the Tigers minus the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan State Spartans + the points over Northwestern.  The Wildcats shocked Wisconsin, 17-7, as a touchdown underdog last Saturday.  But off that huge upset win, we'll fade Pat Fitzgerald's men as a road favorite.  For technical support, consider that conference double-digit road favorites are a woeful 38.8% the past 41 years off a home upset win, if they're playing a foe off a SU/ATS loss.  Take Michigan State.

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Texas State Bobcats + the points over Coastal Carolina.  The Chanticleers remain undefeated, at 8-0, after last week's big win over Appalachian State (which was 6-1 entering the contest).  And they have the 9-1 Liberty Flames on deck.  So, don't be surprised if the Chanticleers get caught looking past the 2-9 Bobcats.  But they really shouldn't as Texas State has covered its last four, including an upset win last weekend over Arkansas State.  This will be the Bobcats' final home game of the season.  And NCAA teams playing their last home game generally rise to the occasion when they play great opponents, as they've covered 60% over the last 41 seasons vs. .900 (or better) foes off an ATS win.  Take Texas State + the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Oklahoma St Cowboys minus the points over Texas Tech.  Last week, the Cowboys were blown out, 41-13, in Norman by their rivals, the Oklahoma Sooners.  But Okie State is back home in Stillwater today, and we'll lay the points against Texas Tech.  Since 1980, .680 (or better) home teams have covered 60.4% vs. conference foes if our home team was blown out by 20+ points on the road in their last game, and is not favored by 14+ points.  Take the Cowboys.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Buffalo Bulls minus the points over Kent State.  The Bulls suffered a rare conference ATS loss last week when they only won by 25, as a 31.5-point favorite.  But their victory moved their mark to 3-0 SU, so this game against Kent State (also 3-0) will go a long way toward determining the MAC Title.  The Bulls have been as good at home for their friends in Las Vegas, as any team could be, as they're 17-2 ATS their last 19, including 13-0 ATS their last 13 vs. Mid-American Conference rivals.  Take Buffalo minus the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Western Michigan Broncos minus the points over Northern Illinois.  The Broncos are 3-0 (and scoring 50.3 ppg), while the Huskies are 0-3 (and giving up 40 ppg), so it's no surprise that Western Michigan is favored by almost three touchdowns today.  Last season, the Huskies shocked the Broncos, 17-14, as a 10-point underdog, so the Broncos will be out for revenge today.  They should get it, as NCAA teams off 3+ wins, that average at least 50 ppg on offense, have covered 61% over the last 41 years as a favorite of 34 points or less (and 73% if their opponent gives up more than 30 ppg).  Take Western Michigan minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the South Florida Bulls + the points over Central Florida.  The Knights lost 36-33 last week to the Cincinnati Bearcats, but covered as a 4-point home underdog.  They're now favored by double-digits on the road in their final game of the regular season, and I expect a letdown this afternoon against a South Florida team playing its final home game of the season.  Indeed, teams playing their final regular season game of the season on the road, off a straight-up loss in their previous game, have been terrible as big favorites, cashing just 23 of 64 when laying more than 10 points against an opponent playing its final home game of the season.  And the Knights also fall into a negative 19-52 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off SU home losses.  Finally, the Bulls have covered 18 of 24 as an underdog of +9 (or more) points off an ATS defeat, including 5-0 ATS vs. .667 (or worse) opponents.  Take South Florida.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina Tar Heels + the points over Notre Dame.  The Heels are lighting up the scoreboard this season.  UNC has scored 156 points over the last three weeks, average 43.1 ppg for the season (against foes that give up 31.2), and get 7.7 yards per play (against foes that allow 6.0 ypp).  They've won all four home games this season (3-1 ATS), and are 10-4 ATS their last 14 at Kenan Memorial Stadium.  Even better:  when installed as a home dog of +5 or more points, North Carolina's a superb 15-4-1 ATS its last 20, including a perfect 9-0 ATS vs. ACC Conference foes when priced from +5 to +11. I won't fade those numbers.  Nor will I fade a home underdog off back to back wins which scored 100+ points over those two games.  Since 1980, such teams have covered 61.2% of the time.  Take North Carolina to roll at home.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers + the points over Iowa.  Last week, Nebraska turned in a horrid performance, as it lost 41-23, as a 17-point home favorite.  But off that debacle, we will step in and grab the double-digits with Scott Frost's men.  It's true that Iowa's off 3 SU/ATS wins, but teams off back to back wins have cashed just 39% since 1980 when matched up against a conference foe off an upset loss, if that foe failed to cover by 31+ points in its previous game.  And if our 'play-against' team (here, Iowa) is favored between 10 and 15.5 points, then it has gone a wallet-busting 0-15 ATS.  Take Nebraska.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns minus the points over Iowa State.  The Longhorns had last week off to rest, and to prepare for this pivotal Big 12 Conference match-up.  Last year, the Cyclones snapped Texas' 3-game win streak in the series with a 23-21 win in Ames.  But the Longhorns have still won 13 of the past 15 meetings.  And Texas is a super 7-0 ATS its last seven when rested, and playing with revenge against an opponent off a SU win.  Take Texas.

At 7:00 pm, our selection is on the New Mexico Lobos minus the points over Utah State.  Last year, Utah State handed New Mexico a 38-25 home defeat, so the Lobos will be out to avenge that loss tonight.  New Mexico was blown out by 28 points by Air Force in its last game.  But off that defeat, we'll take the Lobos to bounce back, as revenge-minded road favorites of less than 7 points (or PK) have gone 77-43 ATS off a loss by more than 11 points.  Even better:  Utah State is 0-4 SU/ATS on the season, and has failed to cover by an average of 12.62 ppg.  Take New Mexico.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the North Carolina State Wolfpack minus the points over Liberty.  The Flames are 8-0 and ranked among the Top 25, but have been installed as an underdog on Tobacco Road in this non-conference affair.  This will be the 3rd ACC opponent that Liberty has faced this season, but it will be the first one which currently has a winning record.  NC State is 5-3 on the season, and it has dominated non-conference foes in Raleigh, with 16 straight wins, and 29 of their last 30 (11-6 ATS).  Even better:  at Game 8 forward, undefeated, unrested underdogs, priced from +2 to +6 points, are 0-13 SU/ATS away from home.  Lay the points with the Wolfpack.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Rutgers.  Jim Harbaugh's men have (once again) been a major disappointment this season.  After a 49-24 blowout win at Minnesota to start the season, Michigan has lost to Michigan State, Indiana and Wisconsin.  They'll try to right the ship tonight, and I believe they will, as NCAA teams off 3 SU/ATS losses have gone 67-47 ATS in conference games when favored by more than 5 points.  Last year, the Wolverines were also blown out by Wisconsin, 35-14, in the game immediately preceding the Rutgers match-up.  And Michigan bounced back off that loss to rout Rutgers, 52-0.  Same thing here.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones minus the points over Kansas State.  Iowa State comes into this game with an extra week off following its 38-31 victory over Baylor two weeks ago.  Kansas State, meanwhile, is on a 2-game losing streak following its 20-18 defeat at the hands of Oklahoma State.  The Wildcats won last year's meeting, in Manahattan.  But we'll take the Cyclones to avenge that defeat here, in Ames.  Iowa State is a super 13-5 ATS at home when playing with revenge, while rested Big 12 Conference home favorites have cashed 70 of 117 off a straight-up win.  Lay the points with the Cyclones.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over UCLA.  We played on the Ducks last week in Pullman, WA, and got the cash when they won, 43-29, as a 10-point favorite vs. Washington St.  On Saturday, they're back in Eugene, and will welcome the Bruins, who upset California, 34-10, as a 3.5-point home dog last Sunday.  Unfortunately for the Bruins, double-digit underdog have covered just 26% of conference road games over the last 41 seasons after a 20-point (or greater) upset win over a conference foe, if their current opponent was off a SU/ATS win.  That doesn't bode well for UCLA in this match-up.  Nor does the fact that the Bruins, themselves, are 1-9 ATS on the Pac-12 road following an upset win at home.  Meanwhile, Oregon is a stellar 73-47-2 ATS off a double-digit conference win, including 9-2 ATS vs. conference foes off an upset win.  Take the Ducks to blow out the Bruins.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 2 pm, our selection is on the North Texas Mean Green minus the points over Rice.  Both of these teams have had several weeks off since their last games.  Rice hasn't played since October 31, when it blew out Southern Miss, 30-6, while North Texas hasn't taken the field since October 17, when it smashed Middle Tennessee, 52-35!  We'll lay the points with North Texas, as rested Conference USA home teams have gone 81-57 ATS vs. conference foes.  Additionally, road teams have gone 34-75 ATS off a 20-point win, when matched up against an opponent off a win by more than 7 points, if our road team was not favored by 3+ points.  Take North Texas minus the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers minus the points over Illinois.  Both of the teams pulled off upsets last week:  Illinois went into Piscataway, and defeated Rutgers, 23-20, as a 5-point dog, while Nebraska upended Penn State, 30-23, here in Lincoln.  That was Illinois' first win of the season (against three losses), and they'll be hard-pressed to make it two-upsets-in-a-row on this Saturday.  Indeed, over the last 41 seasons, losing teams have gone just 34.1% ATS as a road underdog, if they won outright as a conference road underdog their previous game, and were now matched up against a conference foe off a win.  Even better:  Nebraska's a perfect 9-0 ATS when priced as a favorite of -15 to -30 points against a .500 (or worse) opponent off an upset win, while Illinois is 0-9 ATS when getting more than 15 points off an upset win.  Take Nebraska.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane minus the points over Tulane.  Both of these teams enter tonight's game on win streaks.  The Golden Hurricane have won all four of their games this season, including last week's comeback win over SMU (which we cashed).  Similarly, Tulane is on a 3-game win streak, and has covered five in a row.  But when one looks deeper within Tulane's set of games, what jumps out is that the Green Wave have won ALL FOUR of their games when they were favored (and have covered by an average of 25.6 ppg).  But in their games as an underdog, they've lost ALL THREE games (and have failed to cover by an average of 1.3 ppg).  Now, Tulane is back in the role of an underdog -- after winning and covering three straight as a favorite.  And one of the things I love to do is fade such teams that have such of a "role reversal."  Indeed, after three straight ATS wins as a favorite, teams installed as underdogs of +3 (or more) points have covered just 30 of 85 games away from home vs. conference foes.  That doesn't bode well for the Green Wave tonight.  Nor does the fact that Tulane is an awful 0-12 ATS on the road as an underdog of less than 8 points (or PK) off an ATS win.  Take Tulsa minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Central Michigan Chippewas over the Western Michigan Broncos.  The Broncos are 2-0 SU/ATS after last week's thrilling, come-from-behind, 41-38 win in the final seconds vs. Toledo.  They're averaging 49.5 ppg and 8.01 ypp, which leads the MAC.  They'll face a staunch test tonight in Mount Pleasant, as the Chips are also 2-0 SU/ATS, and tops in MAC defense this season (18.5 ppg allowed), while allowing just 4.7 ypp.  Last week, we played on the Broncos vs. the Rockets, so we were ecstatic when they recovered the onside kick, and subsequently scored on a fake play designed to make the Rockets think they were going to down the ball to stop the clock.  Unfortunately, I think the magic will end for Western Michigan tonight.  One of the things I love to do in College Football is play on home underdogs (or PK) after they've gotten off to a 2-0 SU/ATS start, if they were playing with revenge against a conference foe.  Since 1980, our revengers have covered 63% of the time!  With the Chippewas, indeed, playing with revenge from a 31-15 loss to the Broncos in Kalamazoo last season, we'll take Central Michigan on this Wednesday.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:00 pm, our selection is on the Kent State Golden Flashes minus the points over Akron.  Last week, the Zips went into Athens, and lost, 24-10, to the Bobcats to fall to 0-2 on the season.  In Akron's first game, they were blown out, 58-13, at home by Western Michigan.  Now, the Zips will try to contain a Kent State offense which was in fine form last week when it posted 62 points in a 38-point blowout win at Bowling Green.  The Golden Flashes are now 2-0, and return home to face a Zips team against which they've covered four straight.  We'll lay the points with the Flashes, as home favorites of less than 28 points have gone 84-43 ATS in conference games after a SU/ATS conference road victory by 35+ points.  Even better:  the Zips are a horrid 1-13 ATS as an underdog of less than 27 points.  Take Kent State minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines + the points over Wisconsin.  The natives are getting restless in Ann Arbor, as Jim Harbaugh's men have gotten annihilated the past two weekends. Last Saturday, Michigan was thrashed, 38-21, as a 3.5-point favorite, by Indiana.  And before that, the Wolverines were upset, 27-24, as a 21.5-point home favorite by their rival, Michigan State.  Those two debacles will keep a lot of bettors away from the Maize and Blue.  But not us.  Consider that NCAA home teams have cashed 67% since 1990 off back to back losses where they failed to cover by 20+ points, if they were playing a foe off a SU/ATS win! That bodes well for Michigan.  As does the fact that it's 20-11 ATS off a SU loss, if it's playing a Big 10 Conference foe with a winning ATS record.  Take Michigan.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over Washington State.  The Cougars pulled off an upset last week at Oregon State, 38-28, as a 3-point road underdog.  They've now been installed as a double-digit home underdog vs. Oregon, and will look to avenge last season's 37-35 loss in Eugene.  Can the Cougars pull off two straight upsets?  It's not likely, as home underdogs of 6+ points have covered just 14 of 53 off an upset victory when matched up against a .500 (or better) foe.  Even better for Oregon:  it's 29-9-1 ATS on the road vs. .680 (or better) opponents, including a perfect 14-0 ATS its last 14 vs. revenge-minded foes.  Take Oregon minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7 pm, our selection is on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane minus the points over SMU.  The Mustangs have broken out to a 7-1 start this season, and are ranked among the Top 20.  But this will be their first game dressed up in the underdog role, as SMU was favored in each of their first eight games.  And SMU has been dreadful as a road underdog of +10 or less points (or PK), as it's 12-36 ATS its last 48!  Tulsa had last week off to rest and prepare for this game.  And rested home teams have gone 92-49 ATS off 3+ wins, if they scored 34+ points in each of those three victories.  Lay the points with Tulsa.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the San Diego State Aztecs minus the points over Hawaii.  The Aztecs lost their home game last week to San Jose State, 28-17, and SDSU was favored by double-digits in that game.  That lowered the Aztecs' record to 2-1 on the season.  I love San Diego State to bounce back on Saturday, as winning teams have cashed 62.3% as a favorite since 1998 after losing by double-digits as a double-digit favorite.  Additionally, Hawaii is a woeful 12-22 ATS on the road vs. winning foes.  Lay the points with San Diego State.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Southern Cal Trojans minus the points over Arizona.  The Trojans were fortunate to win their season opener, as they scored two touchdowns in the last three minutes to narrowly defeat Arizona State, 28-27.  Off that scare, I look for USC to put this game away early, as it's 31-5 SU and 24-11-1 ATS as a favorite of less than 17 points after failing to cover its previous game by 10+ points.  And it's 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS the last seven meetings with the Wildcats.  Take USC minus the points.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Boston College Eagles + the points over Notre Dame.  Last week, we had a huge play on the Irish + the points over Clemson, and were rewarded with an overtime, 47-40, upset victory, as a 5.5-point underdog over the previously-unbeaten Tigers.  But off that loss, we'll fade the Irish as a road favorite against 5-3 Boston College.  Indeed, at Game 7 forward, road favorites of -3 (or more) points are a wallet-busting 0-12 ATS vs. .571 (or better) foes after upsetting a previously undefeated team.  Yikes!  Even worse for Notre Dame:  it's 0-9 ATS as a favorite of -9+ points off an upset win, while Boston College is 17-7 ATS vs. foes off an upset win.  And Notre Dame has covered just 4 of 15 vs. Boston College when priced from -7 to -20 points.  Last season, the Irish blew out B.C. by 33 points, 40-7.  But Boston College is 7-0 ATS its last seven when playing with revenge from a 28-point (or worse) defeat.  Take the Eagles + the points. 

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over South Florida.  Last week, South Florida lost by a single point, as a 17-point road underdog at Memphis, but easily covered the point spread.  that moved South Florida's season record to 4-3 ATS.  Unfortunately for the Bulls, they're a poor 0-7 ATS their last seven when they owned a winning ATS record.  Meanwhile, Houston's a solid 32-18 ATS vs. foes with a winning ATS record, and 9-0 ATS its last nine at home, or on a neutral field vs. foes that covered the spread by 7+ points in their previous game.  Take Houston.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Stanford Cardinal minus the points over Colorado.  The Buffaloes surprised UCLA last week in their season opener, as they won 48-42, as a 7-point home underdog.  But off that upset win, we'll fade Colorado on Saturday afternoon, as teams off home upset wins to kick off a season have cashed just 34.7% over the past 41 years vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss.  With Stanford in off a 21-point SU/ATS loss to Oregon, we'll take the Cardinal on Saturday to blow out Colorado.

At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Appalachian State Mountaineers minus the points over Georgia State.  The Mountaineers return home off back to back blowout road wins over Louisiana Monroe (31-13) and Texas State (38-17).  Unfortunately for their bettors, the Mountaineers failed to cover the large, double-digit point spreads for each game.  Once again, Appy State is favored by double-digits, and we'll lay the points on Saturday afternoon, as double-digit home favorites have covered 61% over the last 41 years after winning, but failing to cover, back to back road games.  Take the Mountaineers.

At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd minus the points over Middle Tennessee State.  This will be the Blue Raiders' first game since upsetting Rice, 40-34, in overtime three weeks ago.  That was Middle Tennessee's second victory on the season, as it also upset Florida International, 31-28, as a 6.5-point underdog.  But Marshall will be MTSU's most difficult opponent yet this year, and MTSU is a wallet-busting 0-5 SU/ATS as a conference underdog of 13+ points, as it's lost by an average of 30.8 ppg, and failed to cover by an average of 8.5 ppg.  The Herd have broken out to a spotless 6-0 record this season, and are ranked #16 in the country.  On Saturday, they'll be looking to avenge an upset loss to MTSU in Murfreesboro last season.  Marshall was favored in that game by 4.5 points, but lost 24-13.  We'll lay the points with Marshall, as revenge-minded winning teams have cashed 71% at home, as favorites of more than 4 points, if they were also a winning team the previous season, but lost by more than 7 points that season to a team that finished with a losing record.  That bodes well for the Herd today.  As does the fact that undefeated, revenge-minded teams, with a 6-0 or better record, have gone 14-1 ATS as favorites of more than 14 points!  Finally, Marshall also falls into 61-19 and 92-34 ATS systems of mine that go against certain opponents off an upset win.  Take the Herd minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Michigan State Spartans + the points over Indiana.  For the first time in over 50 years, the Indiana Hoosiers are ranked among the Top 10 in the Associated Press poll.  Last week, the Hoosiers moved to 3-0 with an upset win over Jim Harbaugh's Wolverines.  This week, the Hoosiers will take to the road, and travel to East Lansing to play a 1-2 Michigan State club, which was blown out, 49-7, last week by Iowa.  We played on the Hawkeyes in that game, but will switch gears, and take the Spartans on Saturday as a home underdog.  For technical support, consider that road favorites have covered just 37% of conference games over the last 24 years off a double-digit home upset win.  Even worse for Indiana:  if our road favorite was also undefeated in conference play, then it's covered just nine of 35 games (25.7%).  Finally, the Hoosiers are a dreadful 9-20 ATS their last 29 vs. the Spartans, and 1-7 ATS their last eight as road favorites.  Take Michigan State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats minus the points over East Carolina.  The 6-0 Bearcats will welcome the 1-5 Pirates to Cincinnati.  And Luke Fickell's men should be salivating at the prospect of attacking an East Carolina defense which gives up north of 37 ppg.  The Pirates have dropped their last three, including 38-21 home loss to Tulane last Saturday, as a 3.5-point home dog.  Meanwhile, Cincinnati has scored 42, 49 and 38 points in its last three games (all 28+ point blowout wins), and fall into a momentum system of mine which has cashed 82.2% over the past 25 seasons.  What we want to do is play on any NCAA team in conference games at home, or on a neutral field, if they were off three straight wins by more than 25 points, and their opponent was off a SU/ATS loss.  The Bearcats have covered 11 of 16 in this series, and will rout the Pirates on Friday night.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Northern Illinois Huskies + the points over Central Michigan.  The Huskies lost to a revenge-minded Buffalo team last Wednesday, 49-30, as a 14.5-point home underdog, while CMU upset Ohio, as a 2.5-point home dog.  But off that upset win in their season opener, we'll fade the Chippewas tonight.  Indeed, over the last 41 years, Game 2 road favorites of less than 10 points have covered just 33% off an upset home win to kick off their season -- and just 20% of conference games.  Even better, the home team has gone 12-5-1 ATS in this series, including a perfect 5-0-1 ATS as an underdog of +8 or less points.  Finally, the Huskies are a sensational 41-15-3 ATS as an underdog in the regular season, if they did not own a winning ATS record.  Take the Huskies + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8 pm, our selection is on the Western Michigan Broncos minus the points over Toledo.  Both of these teams had terrific starts to their 2020 Mid-American Conference campaign.  Toledo blew out Bowling Green at home, 38-3, and outgained the Falcons by 257 yards, while Western Michigan annihilated Akron on the road, 58-13, and outyarded the Zips by 228.  The Broncos are back in Kalamazoo for their home home opener, and we'll lay the points with WMU tonight.  Since 1980, unrested underdogs of less than 16 points, playing away from home, have covered just 31% vs. foes with a scoring margin of 44+ points.  And the Rockets are also a poor 3-11 ATS away from home, including 1-8 ATS vs. .500 (or better) teams.  And they're 0-8 ATS off a Mid-American Conference home win.  Take Western Michigan minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers minus the points over Arkansas.  Tennessee comes into this game riding a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak, following its 48-17 loss to Alabama.  Yet the Volunteers have been installed as a small road favorite vs. the Razorbacks, who have covered all five games this season.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the red-hot Razorbacks, and against the cold Volunteers.  But consider that, over the past 41 years, road favorites have covered 70.5% of conference games if they were off back to back losses, and their opponent was off 3+ ATS wins.  Additionally, Tennessee is a terrific 14-0 ATS as a road favorite of 13 or less points off an ATS loss.  Take the Volunteers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish + the points over Clemson.  The Irish have given up 13 points or less in five of their six football games this season.  And they're allowing a meager 10.3 ppg (against foes that average 23.9).  Yet they've been installed as a home underdog vs. a Clemson team which has failed to cover the spread in five of its seven games this season.  One of the things I love to do in College Football is play on strong defensive teams as home underdogs.  Indeed, since 1980, at Game 6 forward, home dogs (or PK) that allow 13.7 (or less) points have cashed 61.1% of their conference games.  Even better:  the Irish are 19-7 ATS at home when priced from -2 to +7 points, while Clemson is a wallet-busting 4-16 ATS on the road when priced as a favorite of less than 7 points (or PK).  Take Notre Dame + the points to upset Clemson.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers + the points over Florida State.  The Panthers started 3-0, but have lost their last four games -- both SU and ATS -- largely because of the injury to QB Kenny Pickett in the 3rd quarter of the Boston College game.  Of course, the fact that Pitt played Miami and Notre Dame their previous two games was a big factor, as well.  This afternoon's game vs. Florida State will be a welcome step-down in class for Pat Narduzzi's men.  And I love Pitt to bounce back this afternoon, as NCAA teams off 4 SU/ATS losses have covered 59% over the last 41 years as a road underdog of less than 6 points.  On the other sideline, Florida State is giving up a ghastly 35 points per game, and has covered just two of its six games this season.  Even worse for the Seminoles:  they're 0-2 ATS this season as a favorite, including an outright upset loss to Georgia Tech when they were favored by 13 points.  And they've covered just 13 of their last 37 ACC games as a favorite.  Indeed, it's hard to make a case for an NCAA team as a favorite when they give up 35 ppg.  And, at Game 7 forward, conference favorites have covered just 40% of the time since 1980, if they give up at least 35 ppg, and play an opponent with a better record (both inside the conference, and overall), and a better defense (which rates at least 11 points better).  Take Pitt + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Mississippi State Bulldogs minus the points over Vanderbilt.  After opening its season with an impressive 44-34 upset win at LSU, the Bulldogs have lost their last four games -- both SU and ATS.  Last week's game was particularly uninspired, as they managed just 200 yards of offense, in a shutout loss at Alabama.  But Mississippi State is back home in Starkville this afternoon.  And their opponent is the 0-4 Commodores rather than the Crimson Tide.  One of the things I love to do is play on double-digit NCAA home favorites in conference games, off back-to-back conference defeats, if they lost their previous game by 20+ points.  These teams have bounced back to cover the spread 62% of the time.  And for all of Miss State's recent problems, the Commodores have actually been worse.  Vandy is 0-4 SU this season, and has lost its last three games ATS by an average of 16.3 ppg.  And it's also 0-9 ATS its last nine when getting less than 21 points!  Take Mississippi State.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers minus the points over Illinois.  The Gophers come into this game off back to back losses to start their 2020 season.  Certainly, PJ Fleck did not envision that his team would be 0-2 at that point, after going 11-2 last year, and being ranked #21 to start the season.  A 49-24 season-opening loss to Michigan wasn't wholly unexpected.  But last week's 45-44 overtime defeat at Maryland was a head-scratcher, as Minnesota was favored by 17.5 points.  But 0-2 road favorites, that had a winning record the previous season, have cashed 68.9% over the last 41 years.  Even better:  teams playing away from home have gone 20-4 ATS if they were upset as an 11-point (or bigger) favorite their previous game, and were off back to back losses overall.  Take the Gophers to bounce back at Champaign this afternoon.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over Michigan State.  The Spartans pulled off a gigantic upset last Saturday when they went into Ann Arbor and upset their rival, Michigan, 27-24, as a 21.5-point road underdog.  Can MSU make it two-in-a-row?  It's not likely, as NCAA teams playing back-to-back games on the road have covered just 26.6% of the time if they won their previous game as an underdog of greater than 20 points.  That bodes well for the Hawkeyes on Saturday.  As does the fact that Iowa's a solid 39-28 ATS off back to back losses.  And it's an awesome 24-6-1 ATS off a loss when priced as a favorite of 7 points or less, including a perfect 11-0-1 ATS vs. a foe off a straight-up win.  Take Iowa minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Virginia Tech Hokies minus the points over Liberty.  The Flames are 6-0, and ranked among the Top 25, yet have been installed as a heavy underdog vs. the 4-2 Hokies.  At first blush, the point spread may seem like an overlay, given that Liberty's last three wins have been by 33, 17 and 21 points -- including a victory over ACC member Syracuse.  But Virginia Tech has won its two home games against two winning teams -- NC State and Boston College -- by 21 and 26 points.  And it's also 18-7-1 ATS at home vs. .800 (or better) opponents, at Game 6 forward (including 7-0 ATS vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins).  Meanwhile, underdogs (like Liberty) off 3 SU wins as a favorite are 17-43 ATS away from home.  But the clincher is that, at Game 7 forward, .857 (or better) road underdogs have cashed just 46 of 122 off a SU/ATS win by 13+ points.  Take Virginia Tech.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the Boise State Broncos + the points over BYU.  The Cougars come into this game with a gaudy 7-0 record, and have been installed as a road favorite at Boise State, which RARELY loses here at home on the blue turf.  How rare?  Boise's lost just nine of 137 home games over the past 22 seasons, and is 38-3 straight-up at home when priced as an underdog, or a favorite of 10 points or less.  And it's cashed 22 of its last 28 at home when not favored by more than 10 points!  That bodes very well for the underdog Broncos on Friday night.  More good news:  BYU's cashed just eight of 20 games as a road favorite, while Boise's cashed 75% as a revenge-minded underdog.  Meanwhile, unbeaten teams (like BYU) with a 5-0 (or better) record) have cashed just 30.4% over the last 41 years as a road favorite of 7 (or less) points vs. non-conference foes.  Take Boise State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the NC State Wolfpack + the points over Miami (Fla.).  Both of these ACC Conference teams come into this Friday night game off a bye week.  Miami has won two straight following its 42-17 loss at #1-ranked Clemson, and is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS.  Meanwhile, NC State is 4-2 SU/ATS following its 48-21 loss at rival, North Carolina, two weeks ago.  The good news for the Wolfpack is that it's 2-0 SU/ATS this season at home.  And it's also 31-14-2 ATS as a home underdog of more than 5 points.  Even better:  NC State is 29-14 ATS off a loss, if it's playing with revenge from a loss to its opponent in the previous meeting.  And the Wolfpack fall into an 84-23 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off blowout losses.  Finally, Miami is a dreadful 17-34 ATS off a home conference win, including 0-8 ATS its last eight, and 0-12 ATS when priced from -4 to -20 points vs. .250 (or better) foes.  Take North Carolina State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9 pm, our selection is on the Colorado State Rams + the points over Wyoming.  Last week, we had a big play on the Cowboys as a home underdog vs. Hawaii, and were rewarded with a 31-7 upset win.  In that game, we played against the road favorite Rainbow Warriors, who were off a double-digit upset conference win.  Now, here, we'll play against the road favorite Cowboys, who are also off a double-digit upset conference win.  And NCAA road favorites of less than 13 points (or PK) have covered just 48 of 141 conference games off a double-digit upset conference win.  Even better:  Wyoming has been dreadful on the road when favored by 3+ points, as it's covered just 12 of 37.  Take the Rams as a home underdog + the points tonight.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles + the points over Kent State.  Last year, the Golden Flashes went into Ypsilanti and stunned Eastern Michigan, 34-26, as a 4-point road underdog.  The Eagles will get their chance to avenge that defeat in this season opener.  And, if history is any guide, they will.  Indeed, teams playing with revenge from an upset home loss the previous season have cashed 68% of their season openers, when not favored by 3+ points.  Even better:  the Golden Flashes are a horrible 2-10 ATS their last 12 (and 16-32 ATS their last 48) when playing a revenge-minded foe.  Take the Eagles + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the UNLV Rebels + the points over Nevada.  Last week, in their season opener, the Rebels mustered just six points at San Diego State.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to play against UNLV tonight, especially given that Nevada scored 37 in its upset win vs. Wyoming last Saturday.  However, over the last 41 seasons, underdogs that didn't score 7+ points to open their season bounced back to cover the spread 69.2% in their second game, if it was against a conference foe.  That bodes very well for UNLV as a double-digit underdog on Saturday night.  As do the facts that Nevada's an awful 0-6 ATS as a double-digit road favorite vs. losing teams, and 11-23 ATS on the road vs. .300 (or worse) teams.  Grab the points with UNLV.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Penn State Nittany Lions + the points over Ohio State.  This game features the two teams who were projected to be the Big 10's two best teams at season's end.  Unfortunately for Penn State, the Indiana Hoosiers took the luster off this game when they upset the Nitts, 36-35, as a 7-point home underdog, last Saturday.  But if there was a silver lining in its upset loss, it's that Penn State significantly outyarded the Hoosiers, 488-211.  But Indiana won the turnover battle and, ultimately, the game.  In contrast, the Buckeyes blew out Nebraska, 52-17, even though their game vs. the Nebraska Cornhuskers was closely played in the stats.  Nebraska was only outgained by 121 yards (491-370), yet one wouldn't know that by the final score.  Not surprisingly, the 'Huskers lost the turnover battle to the Buckeyes.  The Nittany Lions were 11-2 (.846) last season, with one of their two losses to these Buckeyes, 28-17, in Columbus.  Rest assured, Penn State will badly want to avenge that defeat on Saturday night.  And revenge-minded teams have cashed 63% (46-27-4 ATS) at home or on neutral fields over the past 41 years if they were not favored by more than 3 points, and owned a W/L percentage of .846 (or better) the previous season.  Even better:  if our revenger came into the game with a losing record, and its opponent was off a win, then our 46-27 stat zooms to a perfect 9-0-1 ATS.  Take Penn State + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6 pm, our selection is on Air Force + the points over Boise State.  The Falcons are 1-1 on the season, after losing 17-6 on the road last week.  But Air Force is back home for this game, and has been installed as a double-digit home underdog.  The Falcons were also a home underdog to start the season, and we played on them in that game vs. Navy.  Air Force rewarded us with a 40-7 blowout win, and that moved the Falcons' record as a home underdog to 8-0-1 ATS their last nine!  I look for another ATS win by Air Force as a home underdog, as it falls into a 72-30 ATS system of mine that plays on certain home underdogs off upset losses.  Take the double digits with the Falcons.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Clemson Tigers minus the points over Boston College.  The #1-ranked Tigers have scored 42, 73 and 47 points in their last three games.  And they'll now face a 4-2 Boston College squad which has surrendered 30, 40 and 27 points in its last three games, and gives up 25 ppg on the season.  Needless to say, Clemson is going to light up the scoreboard on Saturday.  Indeed, winning teams (like Boston College) have gone 51-94 ATS if they give up at least 20.5 ppg, and are installed as an underdog of 22+ points.  That bodes well for Clemson on Saturday.  As does the fact that NCAA home teams that average 45 ppg on offense have cashed 69.6% over the past 35 seasons vs. foes that are off a SU/ATS win that surrender at least 25 ppg, if our home team wasn't favored by more than 33 points.   Boston College has lost its last six games ATS following an ACC Conference win, while Clemson is 9-1 ATS its last 10 games vs. ACC rivals that won SU/ATS their previous games.  Take Clemson minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Illinois Illini + the points over Purdue.  The Illini were roasted in their season opener last week at Wisconsin.  The Badgers were favored by 20.5 points, and blew out Illinois by 38, 45-7.  The good news for Illinois is that it's back home in Champaign this Saturday afternoon.  And it will also be playing a team which is much closer to its talent level.  One of the things I love to do in College Football is play on teams in their home opener off a game where they failed to cover the spread by more than 11 points, if they're playing a conference foe, and the game is competitively-priced with a line of less than 11 points.  Over the last 35 seasons, our home team has covered 65.6% of the time.  We saw this situation a few weeks ago when Troy State was blown out 48-7 by BYU, as a 14-point road underdog.  But then it returned home for its home opener, and blew out its Sun Belt Conference rival, Texas State, 37-7, as a 7-point favorite.  Last week, Purdue upset Iowa, 24-20, as a 3.5-point home underdog.  Unfortunately for the Boilermakers, Illinois is 9-1 ATS vs. conference foes off upset wins, if Illinois failed to cover the spread by more than 10 points in its previous game.  Meanwhile, the Boilermakers have only covered 16% over the last 41 seasons as a road favorite off an upset win.  Take Illinois + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Georgia State Panthers + the points over Coastal Carolina.  After a 2-game road trip, the Panthers are back home in Atlanta to take on the 5-0 (and 20th-ranked) Chanticleers.  The last time the Panthers were on this field, they blew out East Carolina, 49-29, as a 1.5-point home underdog.  And that game continued a trend which has seen the Panthers go 8-3 ATS at home in competitively-priced games with a point spread of 6 points or less.  Meanwhile, the Chanticleers are a wallet-busting 2-5 ATS as a conference favorite.  And they fall into 18-55 and 7-27 ATS systems of mine that go against certain undefeated teams off ATS wins.  Take Georgia State + the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Syracuse Orange + the points over Wake Forest.  Last week, we had a play on Wake Forest as a double-digit home underdog vs. Virginia Tech, and were rewarded with an upset victory.  But now, the tables are turned and Wake Forest is laying double-digits on the road.  Not surprisingly, teams that change point spread roles like this often don't find success.  Indeed, Wake Forest's only ATS loss this season came when it was a road favorite.  It's also covered just 8 of its last 26 as a road favorite, including 0 of its last 6 attempts.  And over the last 38 years, double-digit NCAA road favorites have cashed just 36.1% after winning outright as a double-digit underdog.  Take the Orange + the points.

At 12 Noon, our selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Kansas State.  The Wildcats have ripped off four straight wins and covers, including a 41-point blowout win over rival Kansas last Saturday.  But they'll be matched up against a West Virginia team looking to bounce back off its upset loss at Texas Tech a week ago.  The Mountaineers were favored by 2.5 in that game at Lubbock, but lost, 34-27.  The good news for WVU is that it's back home in Morgantown, where it's 6-2-1 ATS its last nine off a straight-up loss.  Even better:  Big 12 teams are a horrid 47-75 ATS as underdogs of more than 3 points off back to back point spread victories.  And West Virginia also falls into a 63-23 ATS system of mine which plays on certain home favorites off upset road losses.  Lay the points with the Mountaineers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the Wyoming Cowboys over Hawaii.  The Cowboys were favored last week in their season opener, but lost outright, 37-34, as a 2.5-point road favorite at Nevada.  Meanwhile, Hawaii went into Fresno State, and upset the Bulldogs, 34-19, as a 2.5-point road underdog.  Off those two results, we'll step in and take the Cowboys in their home opener on Friday.  Dating back 41 seasons, College Football teams have cashed 77% in their home opener off a season-opening upset loss, if they were playing an opponent off a win, and were not favored by more than 3 points.  That bodes well for Wyoming tonight.  Even better:  over the past 25 seasons, NCAA Football teams have cashed 63% off an upset loss to start the season, if their opponent was off an upset win to start its season. Take Wyoming.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Panthers + the points over Notre Dame.  Last week, the Panthers dropped their 3rd straight contest (and 2nd straight on the road), 31-19, at Miami.  But they'll be back home at Heinz Field to welcome the Fighting Irish to the Steel City.  This will be Notre Dame's first road game after starting the season with four straight home games.  And that doesn't bode well for Brian Kelly's men, as road favorites off 3+ home games, have covered just 27.9% over the past 26 years, if they were off a win, and playing a conference foe off a loss, if that foe was off back to back road games.  It's true that the Panthers are 0-4-1 ATS their last five games.  But this ATS losing streak has created point spread value.  And Pitt falls into a 112-70 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams on a 4-game (or worse) ATS losing streak.  Additionally, the Panthers fall into an 84-22 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off blowout losses.  And they're 14-1-1 ATS off back to back losses when matched up against winning teams.  Take Pitt.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers + the points over Alabama.  Last week, the Crimson Tide won the most-anticipated game of the season, with a 41-24 victory over Georgia.  But after winning that "Battle of Unbeatens," we will look for a letdown, and fade the Tide today.  Indeed, over the past 41 years, at Game 5 forward, after a team won a competitively-priced match-up (with a point spread less than 10) of undefeated teams, such teams have cashed just 35.1% as road favorites vs. .500 (or better foes).  Even worse, if its opponent was off an ATS loss, then our 35.1% stat moves to 15.7% ATS.  With Tennessee off a blowout loss last week, we'll grab the points with the home underdog.

At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars minus the points over Navy.  The Middies won and covered for the 2nd straight game last weekend when they went into East Carolina to defeat the Pirates, 27-23, as a 3-point road favorite.  The Cougars dropped their game last week, as they fell at home, 43-26, as a 3-point home underdog to BYU (which defeated Navy, 55-3, earlier this season).  Houston plays this game with revenge from a 15-point defeat at home last season to the Midshipmen.  The good news for Dana Holgorsen's men is that they're 20-11-1 ATS when playing with revenge from a home loss, including 5-0 ATS as a favorite of less than 16 points (or PK).  And they're 50-28-1 ATS, overall, when playing with revenge.  Navy also falls into negative 77-126 and 64-113 ATS systems of mine that play against certain teams off conference wins.  Finally, the Midshipmen are an awful 3-27 SU and 8-21-1 ATS as home underdogs of more than 7 points, and 11-27 ATS at home off back to back wins.  Lay the points with Houston.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.