Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-01-19 | Cubs v. Cardinals -121 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Chicago Cubs. Who is the hard-luck pitcher of the last month? That's easy -- in the NL anyway. Cards RH Jack Flaherty hasn't won a start since May 14, yet the 23-year-old has a 2.48 ERA in five July starts coming into tonight. (The Cardinals, though, have won the last two times that Flaherty has gone to the hill.) Flaherty gets start #22 tonight and it will come at home against the Cubs and veteran LHP Jon Lester. Road trips have not been friendly to Lester recently as the Cubs are 1-5 in Lester's last six road starts. The Cubs got help for their offense at the deadline, acquiring Tony Kemp (Houston) and Nicholas Castellanos (Detroit) to bolster their outfield. But they didn't do anything to improve their relief pitching, which has a current ERA of 4.20. Despite their victory on Wednesday, the Cubs are now just 1-4 in their last five meetings in St. Louis. Meanwhile, the Cards are 32-12 when priced as a favorite of -150 or less, while the Cubs have lost 11 of 16 with Lester when priced as a road underdog of +150 or less. Take St. Louis. MLB Division Game of the Month! As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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08-01-19 | Giants v. Phillies -140 | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 3 h 33 m | Show | |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the San Francisco Giants. The Phlllies players have to feel pretty good about the fact that their team took some chances and made some trades at the deadline yesterday to try to improve the team and their chances for a Division Title. And likely nobody appreciates this more than veteran RHP Jake Arrieta. Arrieta was part of the Championship Chicago Cubs team in 2016 and, at age 33, he knows that his chances to get another ring will be fading in the coming years. Arrieta's best years may be behind him, but he's out to prove that he can still contribute, and we might be surprised at how well he performs come October if given the chance. Arrieta has a winning record at home (5-3) vs. a losing one on the road (3-5), although the rest of the stats are very similar. He's also 5-3 with a dominant 2.60 ERA in eight career starts covering 52 innings vs. the Giants. Despite their victory on Wednesday, the Giants are an ugly 1-7 in their last eight games at Citizens Bank Park. Take the Phils. Elite Info Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-31-19 | Cubs -108 v. Cardinals | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over St. Louis. Kyle Hendricks will get the start for the Cubs, and he has been other-worldly vs. St. Louis, dating back to September 12, 2016. Hendricks has made 10 starts over this time vs. St. Louis, and has gone 7-0, with a 2.30 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Even better: the Cubs won all 10 of those starts! I look for Chicago to run this streak to 11 in a row tonight. Take Chicago. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-31-19 | Giants +121 v. Phillies | Top | 5-1 | Win | 121 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the Philadelphia Phillies. After a 9-15 record with a 4.42 ERA in 2017 and then 1-5 and 6.25 in an injury-shortened 2018, Jeff Samardzija was almost forgotten heading into this season. But we've seen a resurgence from the 34-year-old RHP in 2019 and all of a sudden, Samardzija is relevant again. The overall numbers may not seem that dominating (7-8 with a 3.95 ERA in 21 starts) but for the month of July, Samardzija is 3-1 with a 2.48 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in just under 33 innings and he's one of the major reasons that the Giants are in the NL Wild Card picture. He's also one of the main reasons that the Giants may not be so quick to move LH ace Madison Bumgarner now. This is Game 2 of a series between two teams that are in very similar situations at this point. RHP Vince Velasquez gets the start for the Phillies. He's won just three times in 22 games this season (12 starts). And the Phils are just 6-14 in Velasquez's last 20 home starts vs. teams with a winning record. Take the Giants. MLB Dog of the Week! As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-31-19 | Diamondbacks v. Yankees -129 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over Arizona. The Yankees lost a rare game at home last night, as Arizona defeated them, 4-2. That lowered New York's fantastic record at Yankee Stadium to 38-18. This afternoon, the Yankees will hand the ball to Masahiro Tanaka, who has been installed as a small favorite vs. Zack Greinke. New York's been at its best at home when priced between -125 and -175, as it's 17-3 this season (including 4-0 behind Tanaka), and 62-25 (+23 games on the money line) the past three years. Meanwhile, Greinke's teams are an awful 25-40 (minus 10 games on the money line) in his career when priced as a road dog of +150 or less. Take the Yankees. |
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07-31-19 | Braves v. Nationals +105 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
At 12:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the Atlanta Braves. Nats #4 starter, Anibal Sanchez will get his fourth start of the season against the team that he pitched for in 2018. The veteran RH had another strong outing last time against the Dodgers, going seven innings, allowing just one run on three hits with six Ks and one walk. As he's often been, Sanchez was very efficient, throwing just 89 pitches in the seven innings and it's outings like that which can pay big dividends down the stretch, especially in September when things will likely be very tight in the NL East. Start number 20 comes this afternoon at home where Sanchez has done his best work in 2019, going 2-1 with a 3.40 ERA in nine starts (vs. 4-5 and 3.83 in 10 on the road). A less experienced pitcher might get frustrated that he hasn't notched more victories given how well he's pitched, but not Sanchez. He knows that his job is to keep his team in the game as long as possible, and the improved bullpen play of the Nats means the wins will eventually come. The Nats are 8-3 in Sanchez's last 11 starts, and we'll back the home team today. Take Washington. |
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07-30-19 | Brewers +111 v. A's | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Oakland Athletics. Four Brewer starters are now on the shelf as Gio Gonzalez (shoulder), Jhoulys Chacin (oblique), and Brandon Woodruff (also oblique) have joined Jeff Nelson on the Injured List. This leaves only Zach Davies and Chase Anderson as healthy members of the rotation. It also opens the door for some others, notably RH Jordan Lyles, whom the Brewers just acquired from the Pirates for minor league pitcher Cody Ponce. And also today's starter, Adrian Houser (4-4, 4.19 ERA), who has bounced back-and-forth from reliever to starter. We'll take the road underdog tonight, as the Brewers are an awesome 44-27 (+15 games on the money line) off a blowout loss by more than 3 runs. Take Milwaukee. |
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07-30-19 | Dodgers -145 v. Rockies | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over Colorado. Julio Urias will get the start for L.A. tonight, and be matched up against fellow southpaw, Kyle Freeland. The Rockies have not done well this season with Freeland on the hill, as they're 5-10. And they're also a poor 1-5 this season as a home underdog priced from +125 to +175 (and 5-12 the past 3 seasons in that role). Meanwhile, the Dodgers are a solid 37-19 (+9 games on the money line) when priced from -125 to -175, and 8-3 vs. the Rockies this season. Take the Dodgers. MLB Road Warrior Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-30-19 | Rays v. Red Sox -135 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -135 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Tampa Bay Rays. Now at age 33, David Price is on the downside of his career. But the veteran southpaw is showing that he still has plenty of quality pitching left in his arm. Despite the shortcomings of the Boston bullpen this season, Price is 7-4 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 19 starts. Compare his numbers to those of Chris Sale and Rick Porcello. This is a revenge situation for Price, who pitched well in his last start against the Rays on the road (6.0 IP; 3 ER; 8K's; 2 BBs) but took the loss and now he gets the Rays at home tonight. Price has done by far his best work at Fenway this season, going 3-1 with a 2.89 ERA in seven starts here vs. 4-3 and 4.13 in 12 on the road. The Sox are also 41-15 in Price's last 56 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance, and 19-9 in Price's last 28 starts vs. teams with a winning record. And, for his career, Price is 6-6 with a 3.23 ERA in 18 games (17 starts) against the Rays. Take the Red Sox. |
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07-30-19 | Braves +101 v. Nationals | Top | 11-8 | Win | 101 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Washington Nationals. Less than a week after the Nats optioned RHP Erick Fedde to the Minors, they are having to recall him again so he can start this game tonight. That's a good thing for the Braves as the 26-year-old third-year pitcher is taking the rotation spot of Max Scherzer. So Atlanta won't have to face the three-time Cy Young winner as Scherzer recovers from a mild back strain. Having just dropped back-to-back games to their two Division Rivals, the Braves certainly welcome a chance to get a win against Fedde rather than arguably the best pitcher in the game. And they will send their most experienced starter to the mound as RHP Julio Teheran gets his 23rd start of the season tonight. Teheran enjoys pitching in Nats Park as the veteran is 5-3 with a 3.42 ERA in 11 starts covering 71 innings here. And the Braves are 6-1 in his last seven starts vs. teams from the NL East. Finally, the Nats are just 3-9 in Fedde's last 12 home starts while Atlanta is 24-12 in its last 36 road games. Take the Braves. |
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07-29-19 | Dodgers -129 v. Rockies | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -129 | 17 h 26 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Colorado Rockies. With their starting roster relatively healthy and a comfortable lead in their Division, the Dodgers are one team that doesn't have to worry too much about the trade deadline this week. Sure, they might pick up some lesser players (a solid set-up man or middle-inning reliever, for example) but they don't have to mortgage their future for a star -- something a lot of other teams might be doing over the next three days. Coming off of a successful trip to DC -- the Dodgers took two of three from the Nats -- they will turn to one of their steadiest performers tonight in Colorado. RHP Kenta Maeda is 7-7 with a 3.81 ERA in 21 games -- 20 starts -- coming into this road start. Some pitchers dread going into hitter-friendly Coors Field, but not Maeda. In 10 appearances -- seven starts -- the veteran is 5-1 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.09 WHIP here in just over 40 innings of work. And the Dodgers have dominated this series, going 21-8 in the last 29 meetings (6-2 in the last eight here in Denver). Take the Dodgers. MLB Road Warrior Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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07-28-19 | Yankees +170 v. Red Sox | Top | 9-6 | Win | 170 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Boston Red Sox. MLB and the networks have to love tonight's prime-time match-up featuring the best rivalry in baseball. And the pitching match-up is great, RHP Domingo German going into Fenway to face LHP Chris Sale. The interesting thing is that each of these aces has an ERA of right around four runs, which is not what one would expect, given the talent of these two veteran hurlers. Sale's 5-9 record and 4.00 ERA are a far cry from where his numbers usually are (12-4 with a 2.11 ERA last season). And for the first time in the last eight seasons, Sale was not selected as an All-Star. Yet, despite this rather obvious fall-off that Sale is experiencing, few people in Boston seem to be concerned. We've actually gone against Sale several times this season (with great success), and we'll do so again tonight. For technical support, consider that Boston is only 3-7 in Sale's last 10 home starts ,while the Yanks are 8-2 in German's last 10 road starts (and 10-1 in his last 11 vs. AL East teams). Take the Yankees. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-28-19 | Giants -113 v. Padres | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the San Diego Padres. Up until a few weeks ago, it was a forgone conclusion that the Giants would be moving Madison Bumgarner at the trade deadline -- which is basically upon us at this point. But a huge surge from the team has got the Giants thinking that perhaps they should hold on to their most accomplished pitcher. The Giants are an incredible 18-5 in their last 23 games coming into this afternoon. And this series finale features none-other-than Mad Bum in his 23rd start of the season. The amazing thing about this hot streak when it comes to Bumgarner is that the veteran southpaw really hasn't contributed when you look at his W/L ledger. Bumgarner hasn't won a start in almost a month (June 30) but the Giants are 5-1 in his last six starts going back to June 25 and that's really what's important. Despite their win on Saturday night, the Padres are just 1-8 in their last nine home games while the Giants are 10-2 in their last 12 road games. Take San Francisco. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-28-19 | Orioles v. Angels -200 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Anaheim Angels over Baltimore. After defeating (arguably) the best team in baseball -- the L.A. Dodgers -- in back-to-back games to start the week, the Angels have had a letdown vs. (arguably) the worst team in baseball -- the Baltimore Orioles. Baltimore has won the first three games of this 4-game series. But I love Anaheim to get back into the win column on this Sunday afternoon. One reason is that Orioles RHP Dylan Bundy has not performed well vs. the Angels over the last two seasons (9 1-3 innings, 10 runs (8 earned), 7.71 ERA, 1.50 WHIP). And the Orioles are also at their worst vs. RHP starters (95-189, minus 76 games on the money line). With Felix Pena penciled in as the Angels starter, we'll back the home team today. Pena is 8-3 on the season, with a 1.20 WHIP. And he leads Anaheim in wins, innings pitched (89 2-3) and strikeouts (96). Take the Angels. |
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07-28-19 | Twins -186 v. White Sox | Top | 11-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Chicago White Sox. We played on the Twins in Game 1 of this series, and easily cashed in a 10-3 blowout. And we'll come back with Minnesota this afternoon to close out the series in similar fashion. Today, the White Sox will hand the ball to Dylan Covey. Unfortunately, he's been dreadful in his last two starts, as he's given up 11 runs over 6 2-3 innings (14.85 ERA). And over his last 24 starts, he's 2-16 (the White Sox are 3-18), with an ERA of 6.69. Not surprisingly, Covey struggled against Minnesota over this stretch, as he faced them twice, and got shelled both games (0-2, 6.75 ERA). He'll be opposed by Kyle Gibson today. And Gibson has had tremendous success vs. Chicago, as he's 8-4 in his 15 career starts, with a 2.82 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. And that 2.82 ERA is Gibson's lowest such number vs. any American League team. Take the Twins. |
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07-28-19 | Rays -146 v. Blue Jays | Top | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over Toronto. This is a rematch of a game played in Tampa between these clubs on May 27. In that game, Yonny Chirinos threw 5 shutout innings en route to an 8-3 victory over Aaron Sanchez and the Blue Jays. Sanchez struggled a bit in that start, as he put on eight baserunners in just three innings. Even worse: his ERA at home this season is 5.23, while it's 6.06 in all of his 22 starts. In contrast, Chirinos has a 3.12 ERA in his 15 starts, including 2.84 on the road. Finally, Tampa's 23-12 as a road favorite this season, while the Blue Jays are a wallet-busting 9-21 as a home underdog. Take the Rays. |
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07-28-19 | Braves v. Phillies -130 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Atlanta Braves. After going 6-0 over the first two months of the season (12 starts), the Phillies' Aaron Nola has been the hard-luck pitcher of the league. Despite having lowered his ERA from 4.18 to its current 3.64 number over his 10 starts since the end of May, Nola has won just twice (2-2). He's pitched well in his last three (a 3.00 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 18 innings) but doesn't have a victory to show for it. But if you're Nola and the Phillies, you realize the important thing is whether or not the team is winning when you go to the mound. And that's certainly been the case lately as the Phils are 5-1 in Nola's last six starts. And that includes his best start of the season -- eight innings of shutout ball on July 2 in a game his team would win 2-0 here at home. The opponent that day was the same as today -- the Braves. Nola has also yet to lose this season in afternoon starts, going 4-0 with a 3.74 ERA in eight outings before the sun goes down. Finally, the Phils are 26-9 in Nola's last 35 following a Quality Start in his previous game. Take Philly. |
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07-27-19 | Cubs +106 v. Brewers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Milwaukee Brewers. If the Cubs are going to make another deep playoff run, they're going to need their veteran starters to come through in the final two months of the season. This of course includes 35-year-old LHP Jon Lester. Lester was scratched from his last scheduled start this past Wednesday when he fell ill on the road, so this is a very important step for him and it comes at a crucial time against a rival which is hot on their heels -- just one game back in the Division. The good news for Lester is that he was superb in his only other start vs. Milwaukee this season. Back on May 12, he allowed 0 earned runs over 6 2-3 innings, and the Cubbies won, 4-1. In his career, Lester has made nine starts vs. Milwaukee, and he has a 2.35 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Even better: in his career, Lester has gone 31-13 when pitching with at least 2 extra days of rest. Take Chicago. MLB Road Warrior Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-27-19 | Braves v. Phillies +118 | Top | 15-7 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 24 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Atlanta Braves. The Phillies will almost certainly be in the market for a starting pitcher over the next week and one of the guys who will be looking over his shoulder is 25-year-old RH Zach Eflin. Eflin hasn't been horrible. But given that the Phils were expecting him to be a solid #3 or #4 option in the rotation, he's been a disappointment. Perhaps knowing that he might be on a short leash will give Eflin some motivation tonight at home against the Braves. The good news on that front is that Eflin is 2-1 with a very nice 3.46 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in four career starts vs. Atlanta, and the Phillies are 3-1 in those four. Also, despite his recent struggles, Eflin has pitched well at home this season as he is 5-3 with a 3.88 ERA in eight starts here at Citizens Bank Park -- and the Phillies are 7-3 in his last 10 outings here. And even though they won here last night, the Braves are still just 1-5 in their last six in Philadelphia. Take the Phillies. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-27-19 | Diamondbacks -124 v. Marlins | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over Miami. The D-Backs' young southpaw, Alex Young, has been terrific in his four starts this season. He's 3-0, with a 2.66 ERA and 0.73 WHIP. And this is a very good match-up for him tonight, as the Marlins are an awful 36-63 (minus 16 games on the money line) vs. lefty starters. They're also a poor 17-30 (minus 7 games on the money line) as a home underdog. Take Arizona. |
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07-27-19 | Yankees +134 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Boston Red Sox. There's no arguing what CC Sabathia's legacy in professional baseball will be. The 39-year-old southpaw is a certain Hall Of Fame player and could be one of the last pitchers we see with 250 MLB victories. But Sabathia would like to go out a winner. And being that he's a Yankee, he just may be able to do that, and a second World Series ring this year is not all that far-fetched. He's had some tough outings lately, but it hasn't helped his cause that four of his last five starts have come against the Twins and Rays. He faces another good team this afternoon, but one against which he's had a lot of success. Sabathia has 18 victories and 4.15 ERA over his career against the Sox and there aren't many starters in the league that can say that. Boston is 2-5 in its last seven home games vs. RH starters and the Yanks are 13-6 in Sabathia's last 19 following a team loss. Take New York. |
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07-26-19 | Giants +142 v. Padres | Top | 2-1 | Win | 142 | 20 h 31 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the San Diego Padres. Don't look now, but the Giants are a game over .500 and only 3 1/2 games back in the NL Wild Card race. This throws quite a monkey wrench into the plans of the team that many thought would finish in last place. It is widely assumed that the Giants are shopping their ace, LH Madison Bumgarner, but the team's recent success may cause a change of heart for them. But it's not just Bumgarner who has facilitated the recent turnaround for the Giants. The offense has been on fire lately and other pitchers have stepped up their game. One of those is RH Jeff Samardzija. The 34-year-old veteran is just 7-8 with a 4.08 ERA overall but for the month of July, Samardzija is 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in four starts covering just under 27 innings. Start number 21 will come tonight in San Diego against the Padres, a team he's had more success against than any other, going 9-3 with a 3.38 ERA in 19 games (17 starts) against them. And in 10 games (nine starts) at Petco park he is 5-2 with a 2.42 ERA. Take San Fran. MLB Road Warrior Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-26-19 | Rangers v. A's -109 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 27 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland A's over Texas. The A's lost yesterday to the Rangers. But I love them to bounce back tonight, as they're 61-25 (+25 games on the money line) as a home favorite, while the Rangers are a poor 15-29 (minus 8 games on the money line) as a road underdog. Daniel Mengden will get the start for Oakland today, and the A's are 22-10 in his last 32 starts! He'll be opposed by veteran RHP Lance Lynn, whose teams have lost 27 of his last 42 road starts (minus 12 games on the money line). Take the A's. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-26-19 | Yankees -127 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-10 | Loss | -127 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over Boston. Andrew Cashner, who was acquired two weeks ago in a trade with Baltimore, will get the start for the home team tonight. Unfortunately for the Red Sox, he's lost his last four decisions to the Yankees. And his team lost all three of his starts vs. New York this season. In contrast, James Paxton has never lost to the Red Sox, with a 3-0 record and 1.62 ERA in five career starts. In his lone outing vs. Boston this season, Paxton shut out the BoSox over eight innings, with 12 strikeouts, in an 8-0 victory. Take the Yankees. |
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07-26-19 | Braves -123 v. Phillies | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Philadelphia Phillies. The Braves apparently knew what they were doing when they selected Mike Soroka in the first round (28th pick) of the 2015 draft. After a first season in which the 21-year-old RHP showed flashes of how good he could be when he went 2-1 with a 3.51 ERA in five starts, Soroka -- who still has his rookie status intact -- has taken it to the next level in 2019. In 17 starts, Soroka is 10-2 with a 2.46 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in just over 102 innings. He suffered a bad beat in his last start but that was against the Nationals at home and tonight Soroka is pitching in Philadelphia for the first time. The Phillies were struggling mightily early on this season and although they've turned it around somewhat in the last month, the team that many picked to win the Division still isn't where it needs to be. As good as Soroka's overall numbers have been, he's been an absolute terror on the road this season. In nine starts away from Atlanta, Soroka is 6-0 with a 1.13 ERA in 56 innings. Take the Braves. |
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07-25-19 | Twins -142 v. White Sox | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 42 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Chicago White Sox. It appears that Twins RHP Jose Berrios has ascended to the level of ace in 2019. In his fourth season in the Majors, the 25-year-old Puerto Rican is putting up the best numbers of his career. But we probably still haven't seen the ceiling for him as he is just about to enter his prime. In 20 starts covering just under 128 innings, Berrios is 8-5 with a 2.96 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and a career-best 3.93 K:BB ratio. Berrios appears to be the perfect pitcher to have arrived at just the right time for a team which is taking just about everyone by surprise this season. Start #21 will come against the division rival White Sox -- a team he has dominated throughout his career. In 11 lifetime starts vs. Chicago, Berrios is 8-2 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in just over 73 innings. Those eight victories are also the most that he's logged against any team in the Majors. The Sox will go with RHP Lucas Giolito, and they are 3-9 in his last 12 home starts vs. teams with a winning record. Minnesota is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings with the Sox, and we'll back it on the road tonight. Take the Twins. MLB Road Warrior Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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07-24-19 | Angels v. Dodgers -188 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -188 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Los Angeles Angels. It seems that Ross Stripling is willing to fill any pitching role that the Dodgers throw at him. The 29-year-old RH has been both a starter and reliever in all four of his Major League seasons so you have to believe that by now Stripling is okay with transitioning between the two. He started 2019 in the rotation, then moved to the bullpen at the end of the first month, but was summoned back to starting duties by the end of June. He's performed well enough to stay in the rotation since then and will get start number 12 tonight at home against the Dodgers' cross-town rivals from Anaheim. And the fact that this is a home game for the Dodgers means the Angels won't get the benefit of the DH tonight. Stripling likes pitching in interleague games as he is 6-2 with a 2.91 ERA in 17 games (five starts) vs. teams from the AL. Meanwhile, the Angels are 2-6 in their last eight interleague road games vs. teams with a winning record. Take the Dodgers. |
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07-24-19 | Yankees v. Twins -103 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -103 | 17 h 37 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the New York Yankees. The Twins apparently knew what they were doing when they acquired veteran RHP Jake Odorizzi from the Rays in February 2018 for nothing more than a non-descript minor league infielder. They no doubt noticed that although Odorizzi hadn't been setting the league on fire, he was a workhorse who rarely missed a start in the last four seasons (2014-2017). And he's still under a very team-friendly contract through 2020. Sure enough, in this, his second season in Minnesota, Odorizzi is breaking out, having already matched his career high in wins (11), with a 3.18 ERA (also career-best) and his first All Star nod. With acquisitions like that, it's no wonder Minny is on top in the AL Central. Start number 20 comes tonight against his old nemesis from the AL East and Odorizzi's 4.06 career ERA against them (16 starts) isn't bad when you consider the Yankee lineups since he's been in the league. The Yanks won last night, but this has been a very host-friendly series lately with the home team winning eight of the last 11 meetings. Take the Twins. |
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07-24-19 | Royals v. Braves -188 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -188 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Kansas City Royals. Julio Teheran must be thinking "what do I have to do in this league to get a winning record?" After three straight seasons of winning ledgers (2013-2015), the 28-year-old RH -- whose talent is rarely questioned -- has had three straight non-winning campaigns and is on track for another one in 2019. Perhaps an inter-league start against one of the worst teams the AL has to offer can put Teheran on the winning track. But just because Teheran hasn't been ringing up the W's doesn't mean his team hasn't benefited. The Braves are 14-7 in his starts this season including 4-0 in his last four, and Teheran has only allowed five ER in 21 combined innings in those. The Royals will go with second year RHP Brad Keller. After going 9-6 with a 3.08 ERA in his rookie season, Keller has taken a step backwards in 2019, logging a 6-9 record with a 4.18 ERA in 21 starts. The Royals are also a poor 4-11 in their last 15 interleague games vs. teams with a right-handed starter. Take the Braves. |
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07-24-19 | Red Sox v. Rays -109 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
At 12:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over Boston. In this EARLY game between AL East division rivals, we'll play on the homestanding Rays vs. David Price and the Red Sox. Boston has leapfrogged Tampa to take over 6th place in the American League following its wins in the first two games of this series. Yesterday's game was a heartbreaking loss for the Rays, who left the bases loaded in the bottom of the 9th inning. I look for Tampa to salvage the 3rd game of this series, as they will have the edge on the pitching mound today. Boston's veteran LHP Price has not been effective over his last three starts (5.14 ERA; 1.57 WHIP), even though two of those games were against the Orioles and Tigers. This afternoon, he'll have a much tougher match-up against Tampa and its RH ace, Charlie Morton. At home this season, Morton is 5-1 with a 2.80 ERA. And he also shut out Boston over six innings in his last game against the Red Sox (April 27, in Boston). Finally, he's also 4-1 in his daytime starts, with a 2.45 ERA. Take the Rays. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-23-19 | A's +147 v. Astros | Top | 4-3 | Win | 147 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Houston Astros. It's hard to imagine a match-up of two more surprising starters this season than this one. The A's and RHP Mike Fiers (9-3 with a 3.64 ERA in 21 starts) go into Houston to face the Astros and LHP Wade Miley (8-4 with a 3.25 ERA in 20 starts). We'll give the advantage to Fiers, who has had winning campaigns in three of his last four seasons (assuming he finishes 2019 above .500 which it seems he definitely will). No team in the American League has plated more runs against lefties this season than the A's, who have scored 159 runs vs. southpaws coming into tonight. And they're hitting .270 vs. lefties as a team which is third-best in the league. The A's are also 21-8 in their last 29 games overall, but perhaps even more impressive is the fact that they are 21-9 in their last 30 road games. Finally, they are 5-0 in Fiers' last five starts following a team loss in their previous game. Take Oakland. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-23-19 | Red Sox v. Rays +154 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Boston Red Sox. The Orioles just took two of three from the Red Sox over the weekend, capping off the unlikely series outcome with a combined one-hitter on Sunday afternoon. So Boston decided to take out its frustration on the Rays on Monday, plating nine runs in a lopsided 9-4 victory here in St. Pete. Now they will try to make it two in a row, sending their #1 starter, LHP Chris Sale to the mound tonight. But it hasn't been a typical Chris Sale campaign so far as the 30-year-old southpaw ace is just 4-9 with a 4.05 ERA in 20 starts this season. The Rays will go with RHP Yonny Chirinos, who has better numbers this season than Sale. Chirinos is 8-5 with a 3.29 ERA in 20 appearances -- including 14 starts -- coming into tonight. And over his last three starts, Chirinos has a 4.26 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 19 innings, vs. 5.51 and 1.41 in 16 1/3 innings for Sale in his last three. The Sox are also an ugly 0-4 in Sale's last four starts vs. teams with a winning record. Take the Rays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-22-19 | Rangers +116 v. Mariners | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 22 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Seattle Mariners. The battle for bragging rights in the Lone Star State has been no contest lately. The Astros swept the Rangers in Houston over the weekend, which was on the heels of two straight wins that Houston earned in Arlington a week earlier. The good news for the Rangers is that they don't have to see the Astros again until a final two-game series in Houston in mid-September. This week, they'll start with a series in Seattle against the Mariners. And that's a match-up which has been much better lately for Texas. The Rangers have taken seven of the last eight meetings with the M's going back to the end of April. RHP Adrian Sampson will get the start tonight. Though he's hardly a household name, the 27-year-old has done some very good things for the Rangers this season. This will be his first start of the season vs. Seattle, but last September he had a quality start against the M's (6 2/3 IP; 2ER). The Mariners will counter with RHP Marco Gonzales, and they are 1-3 in his last four starts vs. Texas. Seattle is also a wallet-busting 7-23 in its last 30 home games vs. teams with winning records. Take the Rangers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-22-19 | Cubs -111 v. Giants | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -111 | 21 h 57 m | Show |
At 9:45 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over San Francisco. Both of these teams are red-hot at the moment. The Cubs are 9-3 over their last 12 games, while San Francisco is 15-3 over its last 18. Unfortunately for San Francisco, it has to hand the ball to RHP Shaun Anderson this evening. Anderson has made 12 starts, and his ERA is 4.87, with a 1.50 WHIP. Even worse: over his last three starts, he's compiled an 8.78 ERA with a 2.10 WHIP. That doesn't bode well for San Francisco in this game. Nor does the fact that the Cubs are a solid 111-74 (+14 games on the money line off a loss). Take Chicago behind its 27-year-old hurler, Alec Mills. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-22-19 | Yankees -109 v. Twins | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 22 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Minnesota Twins. Two former Yankee pitchers went into the Hall of Fame on Sunday (though it didn't help the current team, which lost to the Rockies that afternoon). The next pinstriped hurler to get inducted -- if the Hall continues to exclude Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte -- just might be LH CC Sabathia. But, first things first. And since Sabathia is still in the NY rotation, he's going to no doubt focus on the job at hand -- and the very real possibility of a second World Series Ring. Tonight he takes the hill in Minneapolis against a very good Twins club (who we played on yesterday, but also one against which he's done very well. In 39 career starts vs. Minny, Sabathia is 20-9 with a 3.09 ERA in just over 262 innings. The Yanks are also 12-2 in Sabathia's last 14 starts vs. the Twins. Take New York. |
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07-21-19 | A's v. Twins -139 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Oakland Athletics. When evaluating RHP Michael Pineda's 2019 season, it's a matter of the glass being half-empty or half-full. On the half-empty side is the fact that Pineda has only managed to log a 6-5 record with a very mediocre 4.38 ERA in his 18 starts covering just under 99 innings. But on the half-full side is Pineda's pinpoint control and the fact that he's only walked an average of 1.5 batters per nine IP, resulting in a very nice 1.16 WHIP and 5.44 K:BB ratio. The other enigma this season is Pineda's poor record at home (just two wins in 10 starts) vs. on the road (4-2 in eight starts), contrasted against his ERA which is almost a full run better here at Target Field (3.98 vs. 4.87). But the biggest reason to like Pineda and the Twins today is his record vs. Oakland. In six career starts vs. the A's, Pineda is 4-1 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 36 innings. The Twins are also 6-1 in Pineda's last seven starts following a team loss in their previous game. Take Minnesota. |
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07-21-19 | Rangers +134 v. Astros | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Houston Astros. What kind of odds could you have gotten on Lance Lynn leading the League in wins this season? Well, we are almost two-thirds of the way through, and Lynn is doing just that, with 12 victories against just five defeats, in 20 starts. The veteran RHP has a chance to reach 20 when the season comes to an end -- a mark which seems to be harder and harder to attain these days. We've seen quite a bit of the future of Astros pitching lately, and this afternoon is no different as 25-year-old Rogelio Armenteros will get the start at home. Armenteros has earned this start -- his first in the Majors -- on the strength of his performances out of the bullpen this season. In three relief appearances, the Cuban RHP has a 2.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in nine innings. However, his numbers this year as a starter in the Minors do not instill confidence for this debut as he was 4-5 with a 5.05 ERA in 13 starts at the AAA level. The Rangers are a solid 9-5 in their last 14 against RH starters and 5-1 in Lynn's last six starts. Take Texas in an underdog role today. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-21-19 | Cardinals +102 v. Reds | Top | 3-1 | Win | 102 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Cincinnati Reds. Following a breakout campaign in his second MLB season last year, many thought Jack Flaherty would take the next step in 2019. That 2018 campaign included eight wins, a strikeout rate of almost 11 per nine IP, and a fifth place finish in the Rookie of the Year balloting. But 2019 hasn't seen any improvement for the hard-throwing RHP, at least when it comes to the W/L record (4-6) and ERA (4.41). But there are several signs that Flaherty can still have a successful season by the time things wrap up. For one thing, his strikeout rate per 9 IP is still elite at 10.0 and he is walking less hitters this season which has resulted in an improved K:BB ratio (3.29 vs. 3.05 in 2018). And he's only 23 years old. Start #20 will come this afternoon in Cincinnati vs. a Reds team against which he has a 3.09 career ERA. Flaherty also loves daytime outings, with a 3.20 ERA in 17 career afternoon games (vs. 4.35 in 35 under the lights). The Reds will go with RHP Anthony DeSclafani and they are 3-7 in his last 10 starts. Take the Cards. |
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07-21-19 | White Sox v. Rays -265 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Chicago White Sox. This will be rookie Dylan Cease's 3rd career start for the White Sox. And he's not been effective in his first two outings. He's surrendered 12 hits, five walks and nine runs (seven earned) in just 11 innings (5.73 ERA; 1.54 WHIP). And those two games were against two of the worst teams in baseball (Royals; Tigers). This afternoon, he'll have to face the Rays and their Cy Young award-winning hurler, Blake Snell. Snell's not having as good a season as he did in 2018, but he's been terrific lately, with a 2.25 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over his last three starts (all Tampa wins). Snell is also a perfect 3-0 in his five career starts vs. Chicago, with a 1.07 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Take Tampa Bay. |
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07-21-19 | Royals v. Indians -220 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Kansas City Royals. With the injuries that Cleveland has had to its rotation, it's quite a tribute to the Tribe that it's been able to be competitive this season. That's because some of the young pitchers the Indians have had to rely on have performed very well for them. Case in point is rookie RHP Zach Plesac, who the Indians selected in the 12th round of the 2016 draft from Ball State University. Plesac is 3-3 with a 3.56 ERA in nine starts covering 48 innings. More important is the fact that he is 2-1 with a 2.82 ERA in four starts here at home (22 1/3 innings) vs. just 1-2 and 4.21 in five road starts (25 2/3 IP). The Tribe hitters couldn't solve KC's Jake Junis yesterday. But prior to that shutout, they had plated plenty of runners this season against the Royals. In the eight previous match-ups leading up to Saturday, Cleveland had scored a total of 53 runs -- or almost seven per game. Finally, the Royals are 8-24 in the last 32 meetings in Cleveland. Take the Indians. |
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07-20-19 | Angels -131 v. Mariners | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Anaheim Angels over Seattle. For this game, please only list Anaheim's starter, Griffin Canning. Yesterday, the Mariners played one of their best games of the season, as they won 10-0 vs. Anaheim, with starter Mike Leake coming within three outs of a perfect game. But off that horrible offensive performance, I look for the Angels to rebound strongly tonight against a Mariners team which had lost six straight (and 13 of 15) going into this series. The Angels will hand the ball to RHP Canning (4.74 ERA), while Seattle will use one of its relievers for the opening inning, before turning it over to LHP Wade LeBlanc (5.15 ERA). There's no doubt that Canning has been maddeningly inconsistent this season. Still, the 23-year-old has struck out 71 batters in just 66 1-3 innings, and he has a 1.19 WHIP. Meanwhile, LeBlanc started against the Angels just seven days ago, and got bombed, as he gave up 10 hits and six runs in just four innings of a 9-2 Anaheim victory. Take the Angels. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-20-19 | Brewers +125 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 8-3 | Win | 125 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over Arizona. This is a great matchup between two teams with post-season hopes. And both will turn to veteran pitchers tonight. Milwaukee will hand the ball to its southpaw, Gio Gonzalez, while Arizona will turn to Zack Greinke. Unfortunately for the Diamondbacks, Greinke has had scant success facing the Brewers, as he's 1-4 in seven starts, with a 4.28 ERA. And his teams are 2-5 in those seven games. In contrast, Gonzalez is 3-1 with a 2.93 ERA in eight starts vs. Arizona -- and his teams are 6-2 in those eight games. Take the underdog Brewers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-20-19 | Nationals +143 v. Braves | Top | 5-3 | Win | 143 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the Atlanta Braves. Nats starter Anibal Sanchez had quite a run recently. In eight starts between May 16 and July 4, the 35-year-old RH allowed one ER or less in six of those. And not surprisingly, the Nationals went 7-1 in those eight starts. Sanchez stumbled a bit in his last outing against the Phillies on the road, but he still managed to post a quality start in that one (6 IP with 3 ER). Tonight, in his 18th start of the season, Sanchez will face the team for which he pitched one season in 2018. It will be Sanchez's second start of the season at SunTrust Park. And in his first one, Sanchez threw six scoreless innings on May 29, allowing just one hit while striking out seven and walking one in a 14-4 Nats blowout victory. Despite their loss here on Friday night, the Nats are 6-3 in the last nine meetings with the Braves and 5-1 in the last six meetings here in Atlanta. The Nats are also 23-8 in their last 31 games vs. teams with a RH starter and 13-4 in their last 17 road games vs. the same. Take Washington. |
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07-20-19 | A's v. Twins -139 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -139 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Oakland Athletics. Jose Berrios is following up his 2018 breakout season with an even better campaign so far in 2019. For the second straight season, the 25-year-old Puerto Rican RHP has made the All Star team. And over his first 19 starts of 2019 he is 8-5 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 122 innings coming into tonight. Berrios has also done by far his best work here at home as he is 5-2 with a sparkling 2.32 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in eight starts at Target Field (vs. 3-3 and 3.72 in 11 starts on the road). Finally, the Twins are 25-8 in Berrios' last 33 home starts, including 9-3 his last 12 home starts vs. teams with a winning record. Take Minnesota. |
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07-20-19 | Rangers +178 v. Astros | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Houston Astros. Few people can be surprised with the fact that more than halfway through the season the Houston Astros -- along with the New York Yankees -- are the cream of the AL crop. The Astros won a close one on Friday night, beating this Rangers team by a 4-3 final thanks to some early runs and a bullpen that was able shut down the Rangers late in the game. Tonight, it's the same two clubs meeting in Texas, with RHP Ariel Jurado going for the Rangers. The 23-year-old RH from Panama will get the 19th start of his professional baseball career tonight in a game that actually means something to the Rangers as their winning record has them in the hunt for an AL Wild Card spot. With Brad Peacock having been placed on the IL with a shoulder injury, the Astros will call up Jose Urquidy for the start tonight. The 24-year-old has two previous starts with the team this season and the results have not been good as Urquidy has a 10.50 ERA and 2.50 ERA in just six innings pitched. Take the Rangers. |
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07-20-19 | White Sox v. Rays -152 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -152 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over Chicago. The White Sox had dropped seven straight games prior to last night's win. But I look for Chicago to resume its losing ways this evening. Sox starter Lucas Giolito got off to a super start this season, with his team going 11-2 in his first 13 starts. But the wheels have come off lately, as the White Sox have lost four of his last five starts. And he's given up 18 runs in those five games (6.48 ERA). Take Tampa Bay. |
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07-19-19 | Marlins v. Dodgers -280 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Miami Marlins. Last Sunday night when the Red Sox and Dodgers played, many thought the match-up would be a battle royal of two of the premier southpaws in the game with runs hard to come by. But the David Price vs. Hyun-Jin Ryu meeting didn't turn out that way with five first-inning runs before the two hurlers settled down with the Dodgers taking a 7-4 victory in 12 innings. Ryu goes back out tonight and no doubt he will be happy to be facing the Marlins at home as opposed to pitching at Fenway. Right now, Ryu is the favorite for the NL Cy Young award, as he has done little wrong, posting a 10-2 record with a league-best 1.78 ERA in his 18 starts. The Marlins will go with rookie RHP Zac Gallen who has yet to put up a W in his first four MLB starts and it's very unlikely he will do so tonight against the best team in the league -- and arguably the best pitcher in the game right now. Ignore the fact that the Marlins are 4-1 in the last five meetings with the Dodgers as they -- and Gallen -- have a huge mountain to climb tonight. Take L.A. |
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07-19-19 | Rangers +202 v. Astros | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Houston Astros. It's no surprise that RHP Justin Verlander was an All-Star this season. After all, Verlander has now made eight appearances in the mid-summer classic and deservedly so. But this year was the first All-Star appearance for the Rangers veteran LHP Mike Minor. The 31-year-old southpaw is having one of his best campaigns since he came into the Majors back in 2010. In 19 starts, Minor is 8-4 with a 2.73 ERA and he has a league-leading two complete games to boot. And here's an amazing stat: Minor has identical statistics in 10 home starts as he does in nine on the road -- 4-2 with a 2.73 ERA. That kind of consistency is hard to come by these days in the Majors. As good as Verlander has been this season, Minor's 2.73 ERA is actually better than the 2.98 number Verlander has put up in his 20 starts. The Rangers are 4-1 in Minor's last five road starts and 5-1 in his last six road starts vs. teams with a winning record. Take Texas. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-19-19 | Nationals v. Braves +116 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 116 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Washington Nationals. We had hoped to have a play last night on the Atlanta Braves, but it was cancelled after Atlanta scratched its starter, Julio Teheran, from that game, and moved his start to tonight. The good news for Teheran is that he will have a MUCH easier match-up tonight vs. the Nationals' Patrick Corbin (compared to Stephen Strasburg last night). As I wrote yesterday, Teheran is proving very difficult to hit. Over the last two seasons, the 28-year-old has posted a hit rate well under one per inning. And his control issues have seemingly turned a corner since the beginning of the month. In two July starts, Teheran has allowed two ER on eight hits in 12 combined innings with 12 strikeouts but just three walks. When he pitches like that, the Braves offense is more than capable of winning games -- as they have in both of those starts. This will be Teheran's first start of the season vs. the Nats and he's had some decent success against them in his career. The Braves are 7-2 in Teheran's last nine starts overall and 7-3 in his last 10 vs. teams with a winning record. He's also done his best work at home this season, with a 2.66 ERA in Atlanta over eight starts. And that bodes well tonight vs. Corbin, whose ERA on the road this season is 5.17 over 10 starts. The Braves are a perfect 3-0 at home this season off 3+ losses. Take Atlanta. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-19-19 | White Sox v. Rays -240 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -240 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Chicago White Sox. The Tampa Bay Rays' fortunes with top draft picks and young players in their minor league system are well documented at this point. The problem is, these young studs rarely stick around long enough to bring the team prolonged success. Enter the latest Boy Wonder, LHP Brendan McKay. To call him a pitcher is perhaps a bit unfair as McKay -- who was a first round pick in 2017 -- has been a two-way player right up until his call-up by the Rays last month. But the way he's going, it's pretty clear that McKay's future in the Majors will be as a pitcher and not swinging a bat. The 23-year-old is 1-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.69 WHIP in three starts covering 16 innings so far in his MLB career. McKay gets a chance for career win #2 tonight at home where he beat the Rangers in his first start back on June 29. The Sox will go with RHP Reynaldo Lopez and they are 7-15 in his last 22 starts vs. teams with a winning record. Chicago is also a dismal 7-20 in Lopez's last 27 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Take Tampa. |
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07-18-19 | A's v. Twins -135 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 18 h 50 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Oakland Athletics. At the ripe age of 31, Twins RHP Kyle Gibson is having arguably his best season. Gibson is 8-4 in 19 games (18 starts), which puts him on pace to break his career high in victories (13 in 2014). He also has career-bests in strikeout rate (9.1), walk rate (2.7), and as a result, a 3.41 K:BB ratio which is a personal best as well. Start number 19 will come against the A's tonight and RHP Mike Fiers. In five career starts vs. Oakland, Gibson is 2-2 with a solid 3.81 ERA in just over 28 innings. Gibson has enjoyed home cooking this season as in nine appearances at Target Field (eight starts), he is 5-1 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in just over 46 innings. Gibson only lasted 3 2/3 innings in his last start against the Indians in Cleveland but that could bode well for tonight's game. The Twins are 15-6 in Gibson's last 21 starts overall, but they are 9-1 in his last 10 following an outing of less than four innings in his last appearance. And they're 46-26 (+16 games on the money line) vs. right-handed starters. Take Minnesota. MLB Game of the Month! As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-18-19 | Dodgers v. Phillies +102 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 102 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
At 12:35 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Los Angeles Dodgers. This afternoon's game will wrap up a wild four-game series between the Dodgers and Phillies that has included just about everything (including a lengthy rain delay yesterday). The finale will feature Philadelphia's ace, RHP Aaron Nola. Nola probably won't win a Cy Young this season, but he is still having another very strong campaign, going 8-2 with a 3.63 ERA in just under 117 innings. More important for this matinee today is the fact that Nola is undefeated in day games this season. In seven afternoon starts covering 40 2/3 innings, Nola is 4-0 with a 3.32 ERA. Speaking of undefeated, Nola also has yet to taste defeat against tonight's opponents. In three career starts vs. the Dodgers covering 19 innings, Nola is 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA and 0.89 WHIP, while the Phillies are 3-0 in those starts. Finally, the Phils are 10-4 in Nola's last 14 starts overall and 8-1 in his last nine vs. teams from the National League West. Take the Phillies. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-17-19 | Astros +170 v. Angels | Top | 11-2 | Win | 170 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Los Angeles Angels. Please note: for this ballgame, we will only list the Astros' starter, Gerrit Cole, and NOT specify the Angels' starter. When the Astros acquired Cole from the Pirates before the 2018 season, they were hoping that the veteran RHP would bring them a second straight World Series title. That didn't happen. But Cole has a great opportunity still to get a ring with Houston, and certainly nobody would be surprised if he did. Cole's individual achievements are impressive, as the 28-year-old is 9-5 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, with a league-leading 183 strikeouts in just under 123 innings. Cole is also 4-1 with a very impressive 3.02 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in seven appearances (all starts), covering just under 45 innings vs. the Angels. Finally, Houston is 42-21 in the last 63 meetings with the Halos. Take the Astros. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-17-19 | Diamondbacks v. Rangers +111 | Top | 19-4 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over Arizona. Jesse Chavez has made eight starts this season. And he's been fairly effective, with a 3.99 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. His strikeout to walk ratio is also exceptional (28K, 4BB). Tonight, he'll make his second career start vs. the Diamondbacks. He was solid in his first one, as he gave up just one earned run over five innings. Chavez will face Diamondbacks' lefty Robbie Ray tonight. Ray's made four previous starts vs. Texas, and owns an ERA north of five runs per game (5.06) in those starts. The Rangers have been installed as a home underdog for this game. We'll grab the home team, as they're 31-20 (+16 games on the money line) this season here, in Arlington (including 17-12 (+13 games on the money line) as a home dog). Take Texas. |
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07-17-19 | Dodgers -145 v. Phillies | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 2 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Philadelphia Phillies. Dodgers' RHP Kenta Maeda hasn't been able to duplicate his rookie season. In 2016, the now 31-year-old came into the Majors from Japan and promptly won 16 games with a 3.48 ERA and finished third in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. The next two seasons didn't match that success. But so far in 2019, Maeda is having a very strong campaign. For example, Maeda's hit rate is at a career low this season (6.7 per 9 IP), while he has maintained a strikeout rate of at least one per inning. He also has seven career starts vs. the Phillies and he is 4-1 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in those while the Dodgers are 5-2. Take L.A. |
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07-17-19 | Pirates v. Cardinals -127 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
At 1:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Cards' starting pitcher this afternoon -- RHP Daniel Ponce de Leon -- has the distinction of being drafted by four different Major League clubs over the past five years, starting with the Rays in 2010 and ending with his current team, which selected him in June of 2014. It seems it wasn't a bad choice as Ponce de Leon has posted a 2.37 ERA in 18 appearances, including eight starts, in a season-and-a-half with the Cards. He'll get MLB start number nine today at Busch Stadium, a ballpark at which Ponce de Leon has had success with a 2.94 ERA in nine games (five starts) covering just under 34 innings. The Pirates will couner with Chris Archer. The veteran RHP has struggled over his last four campaigns and it appears 2019 will be no different. In his first full season with the Bucs, Archer is 3-6 with a 5.42 ERA in 16 starts covering just under 85 innings. Despite their win on Tuesday, the Pirates are just 8-15 in the last 23 meetings with the Cards. Take St. Louis. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-16-19 | Braves v. Brewers -153 | Top | 1-13 | Win | 100 | 18 h 27 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Atlanta Braves. There were plenty of first-time All-Stars this season, but none was more deserving than the Brewers' third-year pitcher, RHP Brandon Woodruff. The 26-year-old has done little wrong so far in 2019, logging a 10-3 record with a 3.67 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and very strong 5.04 K:BB ratio in 18 starts covering 108 innings. Start number 19 comes against a team which Woodruff had one of his best starts of the season. On May 19, Woodruff threw eight strong innings in Atlanta, allowing two runs on five hits with six strikeouts and no walks. Although the Brewers won the game, 3-2, Woodruff took a no-decision. To that end, it's important to note that the Brew Crew is 14-4 in Woodruff's trips to the mound this season, indicating just how strong the Milwaukee offense is this season. Here is another impressive stat: The Brewers are 11-1 in Woodruff's last 12 home starts coming into tonight. Finally, they are also 10-2 in their last 12 home games vs. teams with a road win percentage greater than .600. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-16-19 | Dodgers v. Phillies +176 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 176 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Los Angeles Dodgers. I have all the respect in the world for the Dodgers' starter, Walker Buehler, as I think he's one of the three most talented pitchers in the league. But this is a big price for him to lay on the road. And especially against a team which bombed him last season for 5 runs in 4 2-3 innings (9.64 ERA). This season, Buehler's road ERA is 3.76, while Vincent Velasquez's ERA in his home starts is 3.95, with a 1.02 WHIP. The Phillies have been underdogs in seven of their last eight home games vs. Los Angeles, yet are 5-3 (+6 games on the money line) in those games. Take the Phillies as a huge home dog on Tuesday night. |
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07-16-19 | Rays v. Yankees -154 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Tampa Bay Rays. How satisfying would it be if, in perhaps his final season in the Majors, future Hall of Famer CC Sabathia were to win his second World Series ring? At the very least, it must be at least a little daunting for a team (like Tampa Bay) to know that it will be facing the active pitcher with the most wins in the league (251). And the fact that Sabathia can still bring it only adds to that intimidation factor. There are plenty of starters in the league who would love to have a winning record (5-4 in Sabathia's case) with a 4.03 ERA after 14 starts. So, the fact that this is far from the veteran southpaw's best season doesn't really matter at this point. Sabathia still has some life left in that left arm and perhaps the most telling stat is the fact that Yanks are 8-6 in his starts this season. He also has some very good numbers against the Rays, with 18 wins and a 3.59 ERA in 52 career starts covering a whopping 338 innings. And Sabathia hasn't allowed more than three runs in any of his last eight starts vs. the Rays going back to July of 2017. Take the Yankees. |
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07-15-19 | Braves v. Brewers +106 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Atlanta Braves. The Brewers are likely in the market for a starting pitcher in the next two weeks as the non-waiver trade deadline approaches. But until they get one, they will keep sending guys like journeyman RHP Adrian Houser out to the mound to fill out the back end of their rotation. Houser is a 26-year-old who's been in the league since 2015, and has primarily been used as a reliever this season. Indeed, he's had just five starts this year. Admittedly, Houser's walk rate is probably too high for him to ever ascend to the top of any rotation. But he also possesses a very high strikeout rate and he seems to be getting better with every bit of experience the Crew is willing to give him. This will be his sixth start of the season but only his third at home, where Houser has done by far his best work of 2019. In eight appearances here (two starts) Houser has a 1.88 ERA in just over 18 innings. LHP Max Fried started out hot for the Braves, but in his last eight starts, Fried has allowed 29 runs on 60 hits in 42 1/3 innings raising his ERA from 2.88 to 4.29. Milwaukee's 127-89 (+20 games on the money line) at home, and 52-35 its last 87 vs. NL East division foes. Take the Brewers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-14-19 | Astros v. Rangers +192 | Top | 12-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Houston Astros. Ariel Jurado is a 23-year old, second-year starter for the Rangers who potentially has a bright future in the Majors -- a future that could last quite a long time. Sure, Jurado's numbers this season don't jump off the page at you -- a 5-4 record with a 4.23 ERA in 19 games, (nine starts). But when you consider that that ERA is almost two runs below his number in 2018 (5.93), then you can see what an improvement Jurado has made between last season and this. After seven shutout innings in his last start in June, Jurado looked like he might have a serious breakout, but he threw in a big clunker in his next start and was "rewarded" with a trip back to the bullpen on July 7 -- throwing 2 1/3 scoreless innings in a Rangers victory. The young RH will come back to the rotation this afternoon to face a very good Astros team. But it's also a team he's done well against in his career, going 1-0 with a 0.93 ERA in three games (one start) vs. Houston. The Rangers have taken four of the last five meetings between these Lone Star state rivals, and are a live underdog this afternoon. Take the Rangers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-14-19 | Nationals v. Phillies -107 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Washington Nationals. The Nats came back and won on Saturday night, thanks to a bullpen meltdown by the Phillies. Thus, Washington will go for the series sweep on the road this afternoon, behind one of its hottest pitchers in RH Anibal Sanchez. The Phils will counter with veteran RH Jake Arrieta, who got knocked around pretty good before the All-Star break thanks to some elbow issues. But the 33-year-old is one of the toughest players in the league and he used the break to heal up a bit and has been cleared for this start today. One thing that's given Sanchez fits in the past has been pitching at Citizens Bank Park. In 14 appearances here (all starts), Sanchez is 2-8 with an ugly 5.18 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in just under 75 innings. And he's also 5-11 with a 4.49 ERA in 23 career starts vs. the Phillies covering just over 124 innings. Meanwhile, despite Arrieta's recent struggles, the Phils are 4-2 in his six starts since the beginning of June and they haven't lost one of his home starts in almost two months (May 15 vs. Milwaukee). Take Philadelphia. |
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07-14-19 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -205 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Toronto Blue Jays. Two All Star starters from the AL squad will face off this afternoon as RH Marcus Stroman and the Jays finish off this three-game series in the Bronx against the Yankees and RH Masahiro Tanaka. While Stroman pitched like an All-Star right up to the break, Tanaka certainly did not. The mid-summer break couldn't have come at a better time for Tanaka, who has posted an 8.31 ERA in his last three. But most of that damage was due to a particularly ugly start on June 29 in London against the Red Sox (6 ER in 0.2 IP). If you take that one out of the mix, Tanaka's recent numbers look pretty good (and the Yanks are 3-0 in those last three starts anyway). The fact that he has a 3.86 ERA overall tells you how well Tanaka has pitched aside from that disaster in London. And Tanaka loves pitching against the Jays as he is 11-5 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 18 starts against them. Moreover, those 11 wins are the most he's posted against any opponent. Despite the loss on Saturday, the Yankees are still 5-1 in the last six meetings. Take New York. |
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07-13-19 | Giants v. Brewers -120 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the San Francisco Giants. Zach Davies may have felt a little upset after being snubbed for an NL All-Star Team spot last week. After all, the 26-year-old RHP is 7-2 with a 3.07 ERA in 18 starts. And those are better stats than some of the pitchers who got picked to represent the NL -- which lost to the AL in the game, 4-3. But if Davies feels that way, then the best thing he can do is prove the rest of this season that he should've been selected for the mid-summer classic. He'll go up against a guy who's made four All Star appearances in his career in 29-year-old Madison Bumgarner. If Bumgarner was trying to impress potential trade suitors this season by presenting himself as an attractive veteran southpaw, then he has a lot of work to do. Mad-Bum is just 5-7 with a 4.03 ERA in his 19 starts so far. And he's been much worse on the road, going 2-5 with a 4.60 ERA in eight starts away from Oracle Park (as opposed to 3-2 and 3.62 in 11 starts in San Fran). The Giants are also an awful 8-20 in Bumgarner's last 28 starts away from home. Take the Brewers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-13-19 | Dodgers +158 v. Red Sox | Top | 11-2 | Win | 158 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Boston Red Sox. Dodgers RHP Ross Stripling began the season in the L.A. rotation. But he didn't last even the first month in that role, though it was due to no fault of his own as Stripling compiled a 2.65 ERA over his first six starts covering 34 innings. But some injured starters returned to the rotation and Stripling found himself in the bullpen at the end of April. After a bad outing in his last appearance in April, Stripling settled down and didn't allow more than one earned run in any single bullpen outing from the beginning of May through June 20, picking up two wins (vs. no losses) along the way. Now Stripling has found himself back in the rotation thanks to a forearm injury to LHP Rich Hill, who likely won't be back until late August. So far, Stripling's latest stint as a starter hasn't gone as he would have liked. But perhaps a start against the Red Sox will help turn things around. In 16 career inter-league appearances (four starts), Stripling is 5-2 with a 3.05 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in just over 41 innings. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are a horrid 6-12 (minus 19 games on the money line) with southpaw Chris Sale on the mound this season. Take the Dodgers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |