At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders minus the points over Tennessee.  We played on the Titans last week, and were rewarded with a huge upset win over the Texans, as an 8-point road underdog.  But off that stellar game, we'll fade Tennessee on Sunday, as road underdogs, off upset road wins as an underdog of 8+ points, have gone 35-58 ATS.  Take the Commanders.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Pittsburgh/Cincinnati game.  The Bengals have gone Over in eight of their last 10, and their games are averaging 53.9 ppg this season.  But the Steelers are one of four teams whose defensive ppg is less than 17 points.  And only one of Pittsburgh's games had an O/U line this high.  That was its game vs. the Ravens -- another team playing high-scoring games.  Baltimore's games were averaging 57.1 ppg, but its game vs. Pittsburgh finished 18-16.  The Steelers are 47-26 UNDER the total in games with O/U lines at 47+ points.  Take the Under.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Houston.  The Jags had their Bye week last weekend following their 52-6 loss to Detroit.  I like them to bounce back from that 46-point shellacking, as rested home dogs, with a losing record, off a SU/ATS loss, have gone 14-2 ATS vs. unrested division foes with a winning record.  Take Jacksonville.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Los Angeles Chargers/Atlanta Falcons game.  Both of these teams have largely played unders this season.  The Chargers are 7-4 to the Under while Atlanta is also 7-4 under.  And the Falcons are 29-10 UNDER in non-division home games, including 5-0 UNDER the last five.  Take the Under.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons + the points over the Los Angeles Chargers.  The Falcons were blown out, 38-6, last week by Denver.  I like the Falcons to bounce back at home this afternoon, as home dogs (or PK) have gone 113-74 ATS off a road loss by 28+ points.  Take Atlanta.

At 1:00 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots + the points over Indianapolis.  In the last 5 weeks of an NFL season, home dogs of less than 11 points (or PK) have covered 57.1% since 1980 off back to back ATS losses.  And New England is 58-33-1 ATS off a loss, if they weren't favored by 7+ points.  Take the home dog Patriots.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Seattle.  The Jets are 18-0 ATS when priced from -1.5 to +11.5 points in the 2nd of back to back home games, if they were not off a SU/ATS win, and their opponent has a winning record.  Take New York.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the Dallas Cowboys.  The Giants no doubt laid an egg last week vs. Tampa Bay.  But I expect a huge bounce-back on this Thanksgiving Day.  We'll grab the points, as underdogs in NFC East division games have gone 104-75 ATS if they owned a losing record, and their opponent was off a SU/ATS win.  With Dallas in off its stunning upset as a double-digit dog at Washington, we'll fade the Cowboys on Thursday.  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over the Philadelphia Eagles.  The Rams lost by 9 points to the Eagles last season.  I'll take L.A. to avenge that defeat, as revenge-minded home dogs have cashed 67% since 1980 vs. non-division foes, if our home pup had a .500 (or better) record both this season, and last season.  The Rams are 5-2-1 their last 8 as home underdogs, while the Eagles have covered just 10 of their last 27 as road favorites.  Take Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Las Vegas Raiders + the points over the Denver Broncos.  Last week, the Broncos blew out the Falcons, while the Raiders were blown out by Miami.  But off those disparate results, I'll side with the home dog Raiders on Sunday.  Since 1980, NFL home dogs have gone 106-84 ATS if they were off a double-digit SU/ATS loss, and were matched up against a division foe off a double-digit SU/ATS win.  We'll grab the points with Las Vegas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the points over Houston.  The Titans are mired in a 6-game point spread losing streak, while Houston has covered its last two.  That will keep many bettors away from them this afternoon.  But not me.  Indeed, NFL teams that were on a 6-game (or worse) ATS losing streak have gone 11-0 ATS their last 11 vs. foes off back to back point spread wins.  Moreover, Houston is a horrid 2-10 ATS its last 10 as a favorite of more than 7 points.  Take Tennessee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Minnesota Vikings.  This is the Bears' 3rd straight game at home, while it's Minnesota's 3rd straight game on the road.  We'll fade the road-weary Vikings, as teams playing their 3rd straight road game have gone 7-21 ATS vs. foes playing their 3rd straight at home.  Even better:  the Bears are a super 47-26 ATS at home off back-to-back losses, if they weren't favored by more than 3 points.  Take Chicago.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys + the points over Washington.  The underdog in this long-standing rivalry has gone 55-32-1 ATS.  That bodes well for the Cowboys.  As does the fact that Washington is a horrible favorite, including 16-46 ATS when laying more than 5 points.  It's also a wallet-breaking 14-20 straight-up and 8-25-1 ATS as a favorite vs. Dallas.  Take the Cowboys.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over Tampa Bay.  The Giants had last week off, and the Bye week tends to benefit the worst (record-wise) NFL teams.  To wit:  sub-.400 teams off their Bye week have gone 40-14 ATS when getting more than 5 points.  Take the Giants.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Pittsburgh.  Interestingly, the 2-8 Browns are a relatively short underdog vs. the 8-2 Steelers tonight.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to lay the points with the first place Steelers.  But be careful.  Consider that, over the past 45 years, NFL teams with a win percentage differential of at least 60%, have covered just 25% at Game 11 forward, when they weren't favored by 6+ points.  Even better:  the Browns enter this division rivalry game off a 35-14 upset loss at the hands of the Saints last week.  And NFL home dogs have cashed 60% of division games since 1980 off an upset loss by more than 10 points.  Grab the points with the Browns.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys + the points over the Houston Texans.  The Texans are 6-4, but have a negative scoring margin on the season.  They're favored by a touchdown tonight, and I don't like laying this many points with teams that have negative scoring margins.  Since 1980, favorites of -7+ points, that have been outscored on the season, have gone 238-320-9 ATS, including 19-38 ATS as road favorites, and 2-6 ATS this season.  Take the Cowboys as a big home dog tonight.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Los Angeles Chargers/Cincinnati Bengals game.  The Chargers have played seven of their nine games Under the total this season, and this is the highest Over/Under line for Jim Harbaugh's men this season.  And L.A.'s two games that went over (23-16 vs. Denver; 27-17 vs. Tennessee) only did so with somewhat meaningless, last-second scores.  In last week's game, Tennessee was down 17 when it scored a TD with just 54 seconds left to send that game Over its 40.5-point total.  And Denver scored a FG with just 64 seconds left, to send that game Over its 37.5-point total.  So just 118 seconds have separated the Chargers from being 9-0 Under this season.  Additionally, the Bengals have gone 37-11 Under when playing away from home, if the O/U line was greater than 46 points.  Take the Under.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets minus the points over Indianapolis.  The Jets were favored last week at Arizona, but managed to score just 6 points in a 31-6 blowout defeat.  I'll take the Flyboys to bounce back on Sunday, as teams off upset road defeats, in which they scored less than 7 points, have cashed 71.1% since 1980 when favored by 3 (or more) points.  Lay the wood with New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Green Bay/Chicago game.  The Bears fired offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron, on Tuesday, as they were unhappy with Chicago ranking #24 in offensive efficiency, and dead last in yardage.  Thomas Brown, who was serving as the passing game coordinator, will take over.  I think the coaching change will provide a spark to the Bears' offense.  I like the Over, as the Packers have been a team which tends to go Under at home, but Over the total away from Lambeau Field.  Indeed, dating back to 2012, they're 64-40 Over the total on the road, including 36-15 Over when the O/U line was 47 or less.  Additionally, the Packers are 68-37 Over the total after not scoring 17+ points in their previous game.  Take the Over.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Baltimore/Pittsburgh game.  This is one of the fiercest rivalries in the NFL.  It's generally favored the underdog, and has been low-scoring.  The Under has now cashed 7 straight in the series.  And when the O/U line was 39+ points, the Under has gone 28-14-2.  Take the Under.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the points over the Minnesota Vikings.  The Titans have lost their last five games to the spread.  I'll take them as a home underdog, as teams on 3-game (or worse) ATS losing streaks, have gone 135-96-8 ATS as home pups less than 11 points vs. non-division foes.  And the Vikes are a poor 29-51 ATS as a roaad favorite vs. foes not off an ATS win.  Grab the points with Tennessee.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Rams to go UNDER the total.  Miami has had a disappointing season, as it's 2-6, while the Rams enter with a 4-4 record.  The Dolphins have gone 56-41 Under the total on the road when they were a losing team, including 28-9 Under if the O/U line was greater than 44 points.  Meanwhile, the Rams have gone 29-16 Under the total in their last 45 home games, including 9-0 their last 9 (and 15-2 their last 17) when the O/U line was greater than 47 points.  And, regardless of home/away venue, when the O/U line was 49+ points, and the Rams have played a team without a winning record, the Rams have gone 11-0 Under the total.  The Rams also have played their last 4 Monday Night Football games Under the total, as well as Unders their last four games against the Dolphins.  Finally, the Under falls into a Totals system of mine which is 340-237.  Take tonight's game Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over Detroit.  The Lions had a huge division win last Sunday. They were 6-1 entering the game vs. 6-2 Green Bay, so the winner was going to be all alone in first place. Detroit won that game, and now has to go on the road to face a Houston team off a SU loss to the Jets on Thursday night. I’ll take Houston, as Detroit falls into a negative 9-26 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off big division wins. Also, teams off Thursday games have had an edge over unrested foes off a Saturday, Sunday or Monday game, going 352-312 ATS. Take Houston + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets minus the points over the Arizona Cardinals.  The Jets will be playing this game with additional days of rest, since they last played on Thursday Night Football.  And NFL teams that played on Thursday have gone 352-312 ATS vs. unrested foes that last played on Saturday, Sunday or Monday, so a slight edge to New York.  Additionally, the Jets fall into several of my best NFL systems that have records of 53-18, 92-57 and 83-44 ATS since 1980.  Finally, in his career as a starting QB, Aaron Rodgers' teams have gone 14-6 ATS away from home, when playing a foe off back-to-back SU/ATS wins, including 8-1 ATS when not getting more than 2 points.  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the points over the Los Angeles Chargers.  The Titans won in overtime, 20-17, last week, but failed to cover the closing 3.5-point line, while the Chargers won and covered their 2nd straight game, with a 27-10 blowout of Cleveland, as a 2-point favorite.  I love Tennessee + the points, as it falls into 28-3, 32-6 and 48-16 ATS systems of mine.  Additionally, the Chargers are a wallet-busting 7-17 ATS off back to back point spread wins, while the Titans are a solid 20-12 ATS vs. foes off back to back ATS wins.  Finally, NFL teams (like the Chargers) off back to back covers by 9+ points, have gone 1-12-1 ATS their last 14 vs. foes off 4+ ATS losses.  Take the Titans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over Atlanta.  The Saints lost their 7th straight last week, and coach Dennis Allen was fired.  Darren Rizzi will serve as interim head coach.  I'll take New Orleans as a home dog, as it is 69-38 ATS when matched up against .500 (or better) foes off a SU win.  Also, NFL teams are 28-12 ATS in their first two games following a head coach's departure, if it occurred prior to Game 11 of a season.  Take the Saints.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Bucs to go UNDER the total.  The Buccaneers have played 6 straight Overs and have given up 30, 31, and 41 points in their last three games.  I'll look for a much lower-scoring game on Sunday, as NFL teams that gave up 30+ points in each of their two previous games have gone UNDER the total 58% when the O/U line was 50+ points.  Additionally, since Kyle Shanahan took over as head coach, the 49ers are 9-1-1 UNDER off a bye week, while the Bucs are 5-0 UNDER their last 5 when playing with a week off.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Cincinnati/Baltimore game.  Both of these teams tallied 41 points lasts week.  The Bengals blew out Las Vegas, 41-24, while the Ravens routed Denver, 41-10.  I'll look for a much lower-scoring game tonite, as NFL games have gone UNDER the total 60.4% since 1980 if both teams scored 38+ points in their previous game, and the O/U line was 54 points or less.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers + the points over Detroit.  The Lions have won and covered 5 straight after a 52-14 blowout win over Tennessee.  We'll fade Detroit as a road favorite at Green Bay, as NFL road teams off 3 SU/ATS wins are a poor 86-124-4 ATS vs. .666 (or better) foes.  Even worse for Detroit:  it's 1-12-1 ATS on the division road, off a home win, if it owned a win percentage greater than 0.667.  Take Green Bay.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Detroit/Green Bay game.  The Lions have played their last 4 games OVER the total, including a 52-14 blowout of Tennessee last week.  I will look for a lower-scoring game this afternoon, as road teams off 4+ Overs have gone Under 60.2% since 1980 vs. division rivals, including 73.9% Under if they scored 40+ points in their previous game.  Moreover, there is rain in the forecast today, with winds at 15 to 25 mph.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over the Philadelphia Eagles.  This season, underdogs of +6 (or more) points started out like a house on fire, as they were 16-3 ATS through the first five weeks.  They've come down a bit since, but are still 21-12-1 ATS on the season, including 7-0-1 ATS if they were off an ATS win.  And, of course, the Jaguars are off a point spread win, as they covered in last week's loss to Green Bay.  The Eagles are a soft 45-67 ATS when priced from -3 to -9.5 points.  Take Jacksonville.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans minus the points over New England.  The Titans were demolished, 52-14 last week.  And they've lost 3 straight, overall.  I'll take Tennessee to bounce back off that blowout loss, as home teams have gone 7-0 ATS their last seven (and 23-6 ATS their last 29) off a loss by 38+ points, if they also lost 2 games back.  Lay the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over the Buffalo Bills.  The Dolphins were upset by Arizona last Sunday, and were also upset by Buffalo in the season's first meeting.  I'll take Miami to avenge that upset loss, as road dogs of +5 (or more) points have gone 82-49 ATS if they were upset in the season's prior meeting, including 22-9 ATS if our road dog was also off an upset loss in its previous game.  Take Miami.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Dallas Cowboys/Atlanta Falcons game.  The Cowboys enter this game off back to back Overs, as they were blown out, 47-9, by Detroit, and lost to San Francisco, 30-24.  I will take this game UNDER, as Dallas is 29-17 Under the total off back-to-back Overs, while Atlanta is 33-21 Under vs. an opponent off back-to-back Overs.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers to go UNDER the total.  The first meeting between these two NFC South division rivals was in Week 1, and the Saints blew out the Panthers, 47-10.  That game went over the total of 41.5 by 15.5 points.  But prior to that meeting, these two teams had gone Under in 7 straight games.  I'll look for a reversion to the norm on Sunday, as the Under falls into a 339-255 Totals system of mine, as well as another 145-87 system.  Take the Under.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots and Tennessee Titans to go UNDER the total.  Both of these teams come into this game off a string of Overs.  The Pats have gone Over in 3 straight, while the Titans have gone Over in 2 straight, including last week's 52-14 blowout loss to the Detroit Lions.  I'll look for a lower-scoring game on Sunday, as teams off back-to-back Overs that gave up more than 38 points in their previous game have gone Under 58.6% vs. foes off 3+ Overs.  Take the Pats/Titans game to go UNDER.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points over the Denver Broncos.  Last week, the Broncos moved to 5-3 with a 28-14 win over Carolina, while Baltimore was upset by Cleveland, 29-24.  I like the Ravens to bounce back, as they have dominated winning teams outside their division, going 84-49 ATS, including 48-15 ATS if the Ravens were not off an ATS win.  Denver also falls into negative 36-102 and 62-135 ATS systems of mine. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns and Los Angeles Chargers to go OVER the total.  The Chargers went under the total of 41.5 last week vs. New Orleans, as they won, 26-8.  And that was L.A.'s 6th under in their 7 games.  A lot of bettors might look to play the under in this game, especially because the Browns are 5-3 under, themselves.  I'm going to look for a relatively high-scoring game, as the Over falls into a Totals system of mine which has cashed 59.2% of the time.  Additionally, the Chargers tend to go Under at home in non-division games (101-53 Under), but Over on the road outside the division (114-93 Over).  Take the Browns/Chargers game Over the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the New Orleans Saints.  The Saints have lost 6 straight since their 2-0 start, and have been installed as a big road favorite at Carolina.  The Saints' scoring margin is -2.62 ppg, and I won't lay this many points with teams that have negative scoring margins.  And especially not on the road vs. foes off back to back losses, as they've covered just 26.3% since 1980.  We saw this exact situation last week, when the Jets were favored by 7 at New England, even though the Jets' scoring margin was -2.42 ppg.  The Patriots won that game outright, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Carolina do the same.  We'll take the Panthers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets minus the points over Houston.  The Jets are on a 5-game SU/ATS losing streak and their last two losses were both as road favorites.  The Jets lost, 37-15, at Pittsburgh, as a 2.5-point favorite, and fell last week at New England, 25-22, as a 7-point fave.  I'll take New York to get off the schneid tonight, as home teams have cashed 61% since 1980 off back-to-back losses as road favorites.  Additionally, the Jets are 5-0-1 ATS vs. Houston in the last six meetings, when not favored by 4+ points.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over Pittsburgh.  The New York Giants mustered just 3 points last week, in a 25-point loss to the Eagles, while the Steelers went for 37 in a 22-point win vs. the New York Jets.  Given the disparate results, the knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the home team in this Monday Night Football game.  But I will grab the points with New York, as underdogs off losses by more than 20 points have gone 40-24-1 ATS vs. foes off wins by more than 20 points.  Take the Giants.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Pittsburgh/New York Giants game.  Last week, in Russell Wilson's debut for the Steelers, Mike Tomlin's men racked up 37 points in a 22-point win over the Jets.  And that was the most points that the Steelers scored in a win since October 18, 2020, when they blew out Cleveland, 38-7.  I expect a relatively high-scoring game on Monday, and will take the OVER, as Pittsburgh has gone 75-51-2 OVER the total when the O/U line was less than 40 points, including 30-8-2 OVER when the Steelers were favored between -3.5 and -8.5 points.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys + the points over San Francisco.  Dallas was blown out, 47-9, two weeks ago, and had last week off to lick their wounds and regroup for this huge game against San Francisco.  The Cowboys have been installed as a road underdog.  And NFL dogs of +4 (or more) points have cashed 72.7% ATS off losses by more than 37 points.  We'll take the Cowboys on this Sunday night.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the Denver Broncos.  The Panthers are in a tailspin, and have failed to cover the spread by 23, 12, and 22 points in their last 3 games.  They're now getting more than a touchdown from the Broncos, and underdogs of more than 4 points that failed to cover the spread by 12+ points in each of their last three games, have gone 16-4 ATS their last 20, including 9-1 ATS on the road.  Take Carolina.  Good luck as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Carolina/Denver game.  The Panthers' defense is giving up 34.7 ppg this season.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for their games to go Over the total.  But consider that NFL teams with horrid defenses that give up more than 34 ppg, have gone 160-106 UNDER the total.  We played on Carolina/Washington UNDER last week, and got the $$$ in the Commanders' 40-7 win.  We'll take the UNDER once again, as it falls into a 112-55 totals system of mine.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Under in the New Orleans/LA Chargers game.  The Chargers are 5-1 Under this season.  And their one game which went Over -- their 23-16 win at Denver -- only did so when the Broncos kicked a FG with 1:03 left in the game.  For those who follow coach Jim Harbaugh, this isn't a surprise, as the 49ers went 21-13 Under his last 2 seasons with them, as head coach.  I'll look for another low-scoring Chargers game on this Sunday.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over the Los Angeles Chargers.  The Saints were blown out in their Thursday night football game, 33-10, by the Denver Broncos.  I like playing on NFL teams off huge blowout losses on Thursdays, and especially when they're installed as an underdog vs. an unrested opponent.  One reason is that teams that get embarrassed are highly-motivated to redeem themselves in their next game.  And when you are able to get points as a dog, and play a team which isn't as well-rested, it adds up to an advantageous situation, which has cashed north of 60% over the last 45 years.  Take New Orleans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Atlanta/Tampa Bay game.  The Bucs lost their top 2 receivers when Chris Godwin and Mike Evans went down with injuries in Monday's loss to Baltimore.  QB Baker Mayfield will now have to rely on rookie Jalen McMillan, ex-NY Giant, Sterling Shepard, and 2nd year-pro, Trey Palmer.  Although the Buccaneers have played their last four games Over the total, including a 36-30 overtime loss at Atlanta three games ago, I expect their offense to take a major step backwards on Sunday.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Arizona/Miami game.  Tua Tagovailoa is set to return from the injured reserve this week, and I'll pull the trigger on the Dolphins and Cards to go Over the total.  Without their star QB under center, the Dolphins' offense has sputtered in their last four games, and averaged just 10 points.  Three of those four games went Under the total.  For the season, Miami is averaging just 11.66 ppg.  And NFL teams that average 11.66 (or less) points, and have gone Under their previous two games, have proceeded to play OVERS in their next game 66% of the time.  Take the Over.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the game between the Baltimore Ravens and Tampa Bay Bucs.  Each of these two teams comes into back to back high-scoring games that went over the total.  The Ravens' last two games totaled 53 and 79, while the Bucs' previous two games went for 78 and 66.  We'll look for a much lower-scoring game on Monday night, as Baltimore is 32-13 UNDER the total off back-to-back overs, including 23-6 UNDER its last 29 when the O/U line was 42+ points.  Even better:  NFL Monday games have gone Under 67.6% the last 41 years if both teams were off back to back overs, and each team's previous two games combined for more than 100 points.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets minus the points over Pittsburgh. Last week, the Jets lost to the Buffalo Bills, 23-20, as a 1-point home dog. I like New York to bounce back this Sunday night, as road favorites of 7 or less points (or PK) have cashed 59.1% since Sept 29, 1992 off a SU loss if they were playing a foe off a SU win. Additionally, in Aaron Rodgers’ career starts, his teams have gone 58-31-1 ATS following a point spread defeat. And Rodgers has also gone 3-0 ATS vs. the Steelers. Lay the points. Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the Washington Commanders. Carolina was blown out by 18 points at home by the Falcons last week, while Washington lost by 7 at Baltimore. The Commanders are favored by more than a touchdown, which is the biggest number they’ve laid this season. Unfortunately for the Commanders, they’re 15-46 ATS when favored by more than 5 points, including 1-17 ATS when they were playing an opponent that failed to cover the spread by 10 or more points in its previous game. Take Carolina + the points. Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Washington/Carolina game. Each of these two teams has played five of their six games Over the total. Of course, the reasons for this are vastly different. The Commanders' games have been going over due to an offense which has averaged 29.66 ppg, while the Panthers' games have been going over due to a defense which has given up 33.83 ppg. But teams with horrible defenses that give up more than 31 ppg tend to go under the total (371-297 UNDER), as do match-ups between teams that average 29+ points and teams that give up 29+ points. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over the Indianapolis Colts. Last week, the Colts upset the Tennessee Titans, 20-17, as a 2.5-point underdog. And that was the 3rd straight game that the Colts covered the point spread as an underdog. In this game, however, the Colts are favored. And NFL favorites (or PK’em teams) off 3 straight dog covers are a poor 50-71 ATS. Take Miami + the points.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the under in the Atlanta/Seattle game. Both of these teams come into this game off 3 straight overs. And their games last week were very high-scoring, as Seattle’s game went over the total by 11 points, while Atlanta’s game went over by 12 points. Dating back to 1980, NFL games have tended to go under the total when each team was off 3 overs, and especially if they both went over the total by 10+ points in their previous game. In that situation, the under has cashed 69 percent over the last 45 seasons. We’ll take the UNDER in Seattle/Atlanta.

At 9:30 am, in an early game played in London, England, our selection is on the New England Patriots + the points over the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags are playing back to back games across the pond. Last Sunday, they were favored vs. Chicago, but were blown out, 35-16. They're now 0-3 ATS this season as a favorite, and 12-23 ATS their last 35. I can't trust the Jaguars when laying points, especially given they've only won 2 of their previous 12 games, straight-up. Moreover, this NFL season, underdogs of more than 5 points have gone 19-8-1 ATS, including 17-5-1 ATS away from home. We'll take the Patriots + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over Denver. The Saints were blown out last week in quarterback Spencer Rattler’s first start, and lost 51-27 to the Tampa Bay Bucs. Denver also lost last week, as they fell by 7 to the Chargers as a home underdog. The Broncos are favored on the road, even though they are 9-22-1 ATS away from home when not getting 4 (or more) points. I’ll take the Saints to bounce back, as underdogs of less than 9 points have gone 39-22 ATS after giving up more than 48 points in their previous game. Take New Orleans. Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the UNDER in the Cincinnati/New York game.  I'll look for a relatively low-scoring game on Sunday night, as the Giants have gone 68-45 Under the total when the O/U line was greater than 46 points, while the Bengals are 37-10 Under on the road when the O/U line was greater than 46 points.  Additionally, the Under falls into a 336-233-12 Totals system of mine.  Take the Giants and Bengals Under the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over the New York Giants.  Cincy lost to the Baltimore Ravens, 41-38, in overtime last week, while the Giants upset the Seahawks, 29-20.  We'll take the Bengals to bounce back in the Meadowlands, on Sunday night, as they're 16-8-1 ATS as a road favorite, including 8-2 ATS off a SU loss.  Additionally, NFL teams off a SU loss, in which they scored more than 36 points, have covered 64.6%.  Finally, over the last 45 years, the Giants have covered just 39% of home non-division games, if they were off an upset win, and their opponent was off a SU loss.  Lay the points with the Bengals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers minus the points over the Denver Broncos.  The Broncos blew out Las Vegas, 34-18, last week.  They'll now host the rested Chargers, who had last week off to rest and regroup following their 17-10 loss to the defending champion Chiefs two weeks ago.  I'll take Los Angeles, as the Broncos are a brutal 4-18 ATS at home off an ATS win, if they were playing a .500 (or better) foe in their current game.  Additionally, each of these teams is playing the 2nd of back to back division contests.  And AFC West teams have covered 62% of division games, if they were off a division loss, and their opponent was off a division win.  Take L.A. minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over the Philadelphia Eagles.  The Eagles are 2-2 on the season, and have been outscored by 2.4 ppg. They're now favored by more than a touchdown against Cleveland, which is 1-4 SU/ATS.  I'm not a fan of laying 7+ points with teams that have negative scoring margins, and especially not against opponents with worse won/loss records, as our favorites have covered just 35.7% since 1980.  This season, underdogs in the +7 to +10 price range are a staggering 7-0 SU/ATS!  We'll grab the points with the Browns.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 am, on Sunday morning, in a game played in London, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Chicago.  The Bears blew out Carolina, 36-10, and that was their 2nd straight win and cover.  I'll fade Chicago in this game across the pond, as Chicago is a wallet-crushing 35-54 ATS off a win by more than 10 points, including 2-14-1 ATS away from home off back-to-back SU/ATS wins.  And it is 0-8-1 ATS its last 9 after covering the spread by 10+ points in its previous game.  Take the Jaguars.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over the Seattle Seahawks.  We played against the Niners last Sunday, and got the $$$ when Arizona pulled off a 24-23 upset, as a 7-point road underdog.  But off that big upset defeat, we'll take San Francisco to bounce back at Seattle.  Indeed, the Niners are a sensational 71-33-2 ATS off an upset loss, if they were favored by 3+ points in their previous game, including 28-7 ATS if the 49ers owned a losing record off the defeat.  San Francisco has also won five straight vs. the Seahawks (covering four of the five).  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys + the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The Cowboys come into this game off 3 straight ATS losses to the Saints, Ravens, and Giants, though they did win straight-up, 20-15, in the Thursday Night Football game vs. New York.  We'll take Dallas to get off the point spread schneid tonight, and grab the points with the underdog.  Indeed, Dallas is a solid 61.2% since 1980 off back-to-back ATS losses, if they won their previous game, straight-up (and 73% off 3 ATS losses).  Also, in NFL match-ups between .500 (or better) teams, underdogs of less than 6 points off 3 ATS losses have gone 68-46-3 ATS, including 31-9-1 ATS off a straight-up win.  Take Dallas + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals + the points over San Francisco.  The Cardinals were favored by 3.5 at home vs. Washington last Sunday, but were blown out 42-14.  Meanwhile, San Francisco smashed New England, 30-13.  We'll take Arizona to rebound , as road underdogs off double-digit upset losses have covered 63% since 1980 vs. division foes off double-digit wins.  That bodes well for Arizona.  As does the fact that San Francisco is 4-18 ATS at home when favored against an opponent not off a win.  Take the Cardinals + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars minus the points over Indianapolis.  The Jaguars have started the 2024 season with four straight losses.  We did play on the Jags last week, and were rewarded with an ATS win when the Jags fell by just four points, 24-20.  Here, they're favored vs. Indianapolis, and we'll lay the points, as winless teams (at Game 5 forward) have gone 83-59 ATS vs. division rivals.  Take Jacksonville.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Cincinnati/Baltimore game.  The Ravens have been installed as a small road favorite at Cincinnati.  And when the Ravens are a road favorite, they've gone UNDER the total 50-31-2.  That bodes well for a low-scoring game on Sunday.  As does the fact that division games that are competitively-priced with point spreads of 3 or less, have gone 211-156 (57.4%) UNDER when the O/U line was 45 (or more) points.  Take the Ravens + Bengals Under the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins over the New England Patriots.  Miami was embarrassed on Monday Night Football when they got blown out by Tennessee, 31-12, as a 2.5-point home favorite.  We'll look for the Fish to bounce back on Sunday, as underdogs (or Pk'em teams) off upset losses by more than 17 points on MNF have gone 10-1 ATS.  Even better:  the Patriots are a poor 0-8 SU/ATS vs. losing teams.  Take Miami.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Washington.  The Browns were a 2.5-point road favorite at Las Vegas, but were upset by the Raiders, 20-16.  They're now a road underdog at Washington, which comes into this game off back to back upset wins.  We'll grab the points with Cleveland as underdogs off upset losses have cashed 60% since 1980 vs. foes off back to back upset wins.  Additionally, Washington is a woeful 31-72 ATS as a home favorite (or PK) vs. opponents that don't own a winning record.  Take Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over Chicago.  The Panthers were 2-15 last season, and scored just 13 points in their first two games this season before benching QB Bryce Young.  With Andy Dalton under center, the offense has looked much better, and the Panthers scored 36 at Las Vegas, and then put up 24 in defeat vs. Cincy.  This week, the Panthers have been installed as a road underdog at Chicago.  We'll grab the points, as Carolina is 49-30 ATS as a road dog vs. .500 (or worse) teams, including a perfect 8-0 ATS off a point spread loss, if their foe was off a SU win.  Additionally, the Bears are a brutal 43-64-4 ATS off a SU/ATS win if their foe was off a SU/ATS loss.  Take the Panthers.

At 9:30 am, on Sunday morning (in a game played in London, England), our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Minnesota.  The Jets were upset, 10-9, by the Denver Broncos last week.  But off that upset loss, we'll take New York to bounce back on Sunday.  Indeed, Aaron Rodgers' teams have been terrific with him under center when coming off a SU/ATS loss, as they've gone 58-29 ATS, including 10-3 ATS as an underdog.  And Rodgers' teams have also gone 56-35 ATS in his starts vs. opponents off a SU/ATS win.  Take New York + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over Tampa Bay.  This is Atlanta's 3rd straight home game.  And perhaps the 3rd time will be the charm.  The Falcons didn't cover the spread two games back vs. Kansas City.  And they also didn't cover the closing line last week vs. New Orleans.  But home teams playing their 3rd straight home game, that failed to cover the spread in the previous two, have gone 65-42-3 ATS.  Additionally, Tampa blew out Philly last week, 33-16.  But road underdogs (or PK) off 14-point (or greater) upset wins have gone 111-166 ATS.  Take Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Tennessee/Miami game.  The Dolphins come into this game off an outing where they scored just 3 points (a 24-3 loss to the Seahawks).  And Miami has played each of its first three games Under the total.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game here, especially with backup QB Tyler Huntley getting the start.  But NFL teams tend to go OVER the total in Week 4 after commencing a season with 3 straight Unders, and especially when the O/U line is in the 35 to 42.5-point range (42-22-1 OVER).  Indeed, yesterday, the Falcons, Steelers, Vikings and Bears all went Over the total after starting the season with 3 Unders (only the Chargers went Under on Sunday after starting with 3 Unders).  Take the Titans/Dolphins OVER the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns over the Las Vegas Raiders.  The Browns were upset by the New York Giants last week, 21-15. I like Cleveland to bounce back, as it’s 13-2 ATS off an upset loss when matched up against an opponent which isn’t a winning team. Also, the Raiders have been horrible at home vs. losing teams when not getting 3 or more points, as they’ve gone 24-60 ATS. Take Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points over Washington.  The Cardinals lost at home to Detroit, 20-13, last week, while the Commanders upset Cincy on Monday Night, 38-33.  We’ll take Arizona to bounce back at home, as it is 35-11 ATS at home off a home loss when it wasn’t favored by 6 or more points.  Take the Cardinals.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Houston.  The Jaguars were annihilated on Monday Night Football by the Buffalo Bills.  Buffalo scored touchdowns on its first 5 possessions, and had a 34-3 lead at halftime. The final score was 47-10, and the Jaguars are now 0-3 on the season. We’ll take Jacksonville to bounce back off that embarrassing loss, as underdogs have gone 48-28 ATS following a blowout loss on Monday Night Football by 20+ points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Pittsburgh/Indianapolis game.  The Steelers have the best defense in the league, as they’re giving up just 8.66 points per game. The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for a low-scoring game here. But consider that great defensive teams with scoring averages of less than 11.6 points per game, have gone OVER the total 130-99 since 1980, at Game 4 forward.  I’ll take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over Minnesota.  Last week, the Vikings were a 1.5-point home dog, and they blew out Houston, 34-7. Minnesota is now 3-0 on the season. Unfortunately, undefeated teams off upset home wins by more than 20 points have gone 1-12 ATS when they weren’t favored by 4+ points. Even worse: the Vikings are 5-13 ATS on the division road when facing a foe with a .625 (or better) win percentage.  We’ll fade Minnesota as a road underdog.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over the New Orleans Saints.  When these two teams last met in the final week of the 2023 season, the Saints blew out the Falcons, 48-17. We’ll take Atlanta in this game, as NFL favorites off a SU loss, who are playing with revenge from a game where they gave up 48 or more points, have gone 10-1 ATS. Take the Falcons.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers + the points over Philadelphia.  We played on the Eagles last week, and got the $$$ when they upset the Saints on the road, 15-12. But they’re now playing their 2nd straight road game. And winning teams are a poor 68-95-5 ATS on the non-division road, if they won outright as a road underdog in their previous game, and their opponent wasn’t off a SU/ATS win. With Tampa off an upset loss to Denver, we’ll take the Bucs to bounce back here at home on Sunday.  Grab the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Cincinnati/Carolina game.  The Panthers have been installed as a home underdog.  And they've gone 16-4 UNDER when they were a home dog.  Even better:  the Bengals have gone 37-9 UNDER away from home when the O/U line was greater than 46 points.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over Carolina.  The Bengals are one of the most disappointing teams in football, with an 0-3 record. But we’ll lay the points with Cincy and go against a Panthers team off a 36-22 upset win at Las Vegas. Indeed, winless favorites of more than 3 points have gone 28-11 ATS vs. foes off SU/ATS wins. Lay the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets minus the points over Denver.  There has only been one team to have covered as a favorite of 6 or more points this season.  And that was the New York Jets last week, when they blew out the Patriots, 24-3, as a 6.5-point home favorite.  But, overall, favorites of -6 or more have gone 1-12 ATS this season.  Still, I like the Jets here as a big favorite, as NFL teams (like Denver) off 19-point (or greater) upset wins have gone 130-177-8 ATS in their next game.  And Denver is also 0-7 ATS its last seven (and 15-30 ATS its last 45) off an upset win when playing a foe off a SU win.  Take the Jets.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions minus the points over the Arizona Cardinals.  Last week, Arizona annihilated the L.A. Rams, 41-10.  But off that high-scoring win, we'll fade Arizona as a home dog on Sunday.  Indeed, home teams have been poor (92-126-2 ATS) in non-division games off a win the previous week, in which they scored more than 40 points.  Additionally, the Lions are 21-6 ATS under coach Dan Campbell, if their opponent was not off a SU loss.  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over the San Francisco 49ers.  The Rams were annihilated last week, 41-10, by Arizona.  But off that 31-point loss, we'll take the Rams as a huge home dog vs. San Francisco.  Indeed, NFL home dogs off losses by 27 (or more) points, have gone 161-113-4 ATS since 1980.  The Rams are also a solid 21-14-3 ATS off a SU loss. Take Los Angeles.  Good luck, as always.  Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over Las Vegas.  The Panthers have been the worst offense in football to start the season.  They scored just 10 points in Week 1 and managed only 3 last week in their 2nd game.  Andy Dalton will get the start at QB this week for the Panthers, and we'll take the underdog, as teams that start the season 0-2 SU/ATS, while not scoring more than 10 points in either game, have gone 17-7 ATS in Week 3.  Additionally, teams (like the Raiders) off an upset win as an 8-point (or greater) underdog, have gone 44-59-3 ATS vs. foes off back to back losses.  Take Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over New Orleans.  The Saints have been the most impressive team thus far, with blowout wins over the Panthers and Cowboys.  And New Orleans has scored 93 points across those two games.  But teams off back to back high scoring SU/ATS wins, in which they tallied 35 (or more) points in each game, have covered just 42 of 100 vs. foes off a SU loss.  With Philly, indeed, off an upset loss to the Falcons this past Monday, we'll grab the points with the Eagles.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Pittsburgh Steelers/Los Angeles Chargers game.  Both the Chargers and Steelers come into this game playing great defense.  Los Angeles held the Raiders to 10 and the Panthers to 3, while the Steelers held Atlanta to 10, and Denver to 6.  Teams that opened the season with 2 strong defensive games, and held each of their two opponents to 15 (or less) points, have gone OVER the total 71% since 2007.  Take the Steelers/Chargers OVER.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Green Bay/Tennessee game.  Last Sunday, the Packers upset the Indianapolis Colts, 16-10, as a 2-point home underdog.  This week, Green Bay will travel to Nashville to play a Titans team which lost its first two games by the identical score of 24-17.  Green Bay is 65-37 OVER the total after not scoring 17+ points in its previous game, while Tennessee is 59-41 OVER the total off a point spread loss.  Take the OVER.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the New York Giants/Cleveland Browns game.  The defenses of these two teams have not played well thus far.  The Browns' defense is allowing 23 ppg (ranking #23), and gave up 33 to Dallas (which only scored 19 vs. New Orleans).  Meanwhile, the Giants are allowing 24.5 ppg (ranking #26).  By my math, this Over/Under line is too low, and the value is on the OVER.  Additionally, the Browns are 9-3 OVER the total off a win, and the OVER also falls into 82-35 and 60-18 Totals system of mine.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

The Bengals suffered the biggest upset loss in Week 1 when they lost to the Patriots as a 7.5-point favorite. But teams that get upset in Week 1 as favorites of more than 6 points tend to bounce back in Week 2, and have gone 27-10 ATS. Additionally, the Bengals are an awesome 14-2 ATS as an underdog of more than 2 points. Take Cincy.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

Interestingly, this is the 2nd straight week that the Detroit Lions will be playing an opponent it defeated in last year’s playoffs. Last week, Detroit covered by a half-point in overtime vs. the Rams. And I also like Detroit to cover the spread in this home game vs. Tampa Bay, which blew out Washington, 37-20, last Sunday. Under Dan Campbell, the Lions are 21-5-1 ATS when playing an opponent not off a straight-up loss.  And teams playing their road openers at Detroit have gone just 12-23-1 ATS, including 4-12-1 ATS off a win by 17+ points.  Take the Lions.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Jacksonville.  The Browns were upset at home by the Dallas Cowboys, 33-17, in Week 1.  I like playing on road teams in Week 2 off double-digit upset losses, as they have bounced back to cover 65.3%.  Take Cleveland + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over New Orleans. The Saints had the biggest margin of victory in Week 1, with a 37-point triumph over Carolina. Now, they’re getting a whopping 6.5 points from Dallas. The knee-jerk reaction might be to grab those points with the Saints. But be careful, as teams off a 20-point (or greater) win in Week 1 are 0-9 ATS their last nine (and 24-42-6 ATS since 1982) when not favored by more than 3 points. I’ll lay the points with Dallas.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the Washington Commanders.  Washington has long been horrible at home vs. non-winning teams, if Washington wasn’t an underdog of 2 or more points.  In this situation, Washington has gone 35-81 ATS.  The Giants were a 1-point home favorite last week and were blown out by Minnesota, 28-6.  I’ll take New York to bounce back, as division road underdogs off an upset loss by more than 10 points have gone 109-69 ATS.  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over Pittsburgh.  The Atlanta Falcons have not had a winning season since 2017, while Pittsburgh has never had a losing season in Mike Tomlin's 17 years as the head coach.  However, I wouldn't be surprised if Tomlin's 17-season streak ended this year.  We'll lay the points with Atlanta, as NFL teams off back to back losing seasons have covered 80% over the last 43 years in Week 1, when favored (or PK) vs. an opponent off back to back winning seasons.  The Falcons are an awesome 19-6 ATS in their home openers, while the Steelers have started the season off slowly, going 4-8-1 ATS in their last 13 season openers.  Lay the points with Atlanta.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the New Orleans Saints.  Last season, the Panthers lost both games to their division rival, including a 20-17 defeat in their home opener, and 28-6 in December.  I like playing on revenge-minded underdogs (or PK) in the season opener, as they've cashed 55.2% over the last 34 years.  Even better, if our team lost the previous game to its opponent by double-digits, and is now getting more than 3 points in Week 1, our revengers have cashed 62%.  The road team has dominated this division rivalry, with a 29-16-2 ATS record, including 20-8 ATS as an underdog, 14-3-1 ATS with revenge.  Grab the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers (on the moneyline), to win the game, straight-up, over the Kansas City Chiefs.  This is a rematch of the 2020 Super Bowl won by the Chiefs, 31-20, as a 1.5-point favorite.  Since then, the two teams have met once.  And that was last season, in San Francisco, in RB Christian McCaffrey's first game as a 49er following the trade with the Carolina Panthers.  The Chiefs were favored by 1 point, and won, 44-23.  Kansas City is, without a doubt, playing its best football of the season.  It won impressively at Buffalo and Baltimore to reach this game.  And it has been well-chronicled how well the Chiefs have performed in the underdog role (17-4-1 ATS, including 15-1-1 ATS away from home).  But the 49ers have also excelled in the role of small favorite.  San Francisco is a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS when favored by less than 4 points.  And it has covered the spread in those games by an average of 16.25 ppg.  Notably, six of those seven games involved opponents that qualified for the playoffs.  The 49ers have also been terrific against teams off upset wins (8-1-1 ATS) and against opponents off back-to-back wins (59-39-3 ATS).  And, while it's true that the Niners failed to cover the spread in their three previous games, the Chiefs are 1-10 SU and 2-8-1 ATS as underdogs vs. foes off 3 ATS losses!  Even better:  NFL Playoff teams that weren't getting 3+ points, have gone 0-9 ATS if they covered their previous game by 10+ points, and their opponent was on a 3-game (or worse) ATS losing streak.  The 49ers will no doubt be prepared for Steve Spagnuolo's blitz packages.  And Brock Purdy led the NFL, statistically, this season when facing a blitz.  He ranked #1 with 9.9 yards per attempt, and also had the best QB rating (127.9).  I will take the 49ers to win the game, straight-up, on the moneyline.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Detroit.  This is the 49ers' 3rd straight game at home, and they failed to cover the point spread in the first two (with a 21-20 loss to the Los Angeles Rams, and a narrow 3-point win last week vs. the Green Bay Packers).  I think the 3rd time will be the charm, as NFL home favorites have covered 65.9% since 1980 off back to back ATS losses at home.  Even better for San Francisco:  its defense ranked among the top 3 in points allowed (17.5) in the regular season, while Detroit's defense ranked in the bottom 10 (23.2).  Detroit was especially poor against the pass, as its defense ranked next-to-last in passing yards per attempt (7.8).  In contrast, the 49ers ranked #5, and gave up just 6.4 yards per pass attempt.  In NFL Conference Championship games, road teams that give up more than 19.3 ppg have covered the spread just 33% of the time.  And, finally, Detroit is a dreadful 14-32-1 ATS on the road if it owned a win percentage of .700 (or better), and it won its previous game, including 0-10 ATS its last 10, if it was an underdog of +5 or more points.  Take the 49ers minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills OVER the total.  Last week, the Chiefs held the high-octane Miami Dolphins' offense -- which was averaging 29 ppg -- to just 7 points.  And that game went under the total of 43.5.  But NFL teams that hold a Playoff opponent to 20+ points less than their scoring average (and went Under the total in that win), have proceeded to go 12-0 OVER the total in their next game.  Moreover, after its 31-17 win against the Steelers, Buffalo's home playoff games have now gone 11-1 Over when the line was 48 or less points.  Take the Chiefs and Bills Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.