|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|11-20-20||Purdue v. Minnesota OVER 59.5||Top||31-34||Win||100||102 h 41 m||Show|
50* PURDUE/MINNESOTA NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 59.5)
We will take our chances here with Minnesota and Purdue combining for at least 60 points in Friday's Big Ten action. While each of the last two games for the Gophers went UNDER, one was a result of their opponent not being able to score (Illinois) and last week it was Iowa's defense taking away the running game, as Minnesota managed just 7 points after scoring 40+ in each of their previous two games.
The Gophers offense is much better when they run the ball, but note that last year they scored 38 on Purdue with just 92 rushing yards, as Tanner Morgan threw for 396 yards and 4 scores. Boilermakers had 31 points of their own, as the two combined for 69 points.
OVER is also 37-17 in the Gophers last 54 at home off a game where they failed to cover and a dominant 22-8 in their last 30 as a home dog of 7 or less. Give me the OVER 59.5!
|11-18-20||Northern Illinois v. Ball State UNDER 62||Top||25-31||Win||100||28 h 5 m||Show|
50* N ILLINOIS/BALL ST *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Under 62)
I know these are two defenses that have struggled to keep points off the scoreboard. Northern Illinois is giving up 44.4 ppg and Ball State is allowing 34.5 ppg. I just think the numbers are a bit inflated for Northern Illinois.
The Huskies combined for 79 points in their opener against Buffalo, losing 49-30. However, the Bulls scored 3 defensive touchdowns. A game that was just 21-16 at the half turned into 49-16 in less than 20 minutes on the clock.
In last week's game against Central Michigan, it was 26-0 going into the 4th quarter before the two teams put up 24 to end up at 50.
Given how much Northern Illinois struggles to score, I just don't see these two teams getting to 63 unless there's a bunch of crazy scores.
Also, both of these teams like to run the ball and both offenses might be even more inclined to run in this game. There's expected to be crosswinds approaching 20 mph. This should help limit the possessions with fewer big plays thru the air. Give me the UNDER 62!
|11-17-20||Buffalo v. Bowling Green OVER 57.5||42-17||Win||100||9 h 12 m||Show|
40* BUFFALO/BOWLING GREEN NCAAF STEAMROLLER (OVER 57.5)
Buffalo could hit this total on their own. We did just see Bowling Green give up 62 last week to Kent State. I don't know if they will hit the 60-point mark, but I do see them scoring at the minimum of 40.
Buffalo won't even need to throw it to score 40. In 2 games, Bowling Green has allowed 605 rushing yards. They gave up 310 to Toledo and 295 to Kent State. They are allowing 5.5 yards/carry and will be facing a Bulls offense that is putting up 194 ypg and 5 yards/carry.
Key here is that I think the Falcons can put up some points. I think Buffalo's defense is pretty good, but defense is all about effort and I just wonder if they will bring it for this game. They laid it all on the line last week against the defending MAC champ in Miami (OH) and have a monster game on deck next week against Kent State.
I think we can get a big play or two early from BG to get some points on the board for them and then add a few more in garbage time to push this well past the number. Give me the OVER 57.5
|11-13-20||Iowa v. Minnesota OVER 58||Top||35-7||Loss||-106||79 h 2 m||Show|
50* IOWA/MINNESOTA NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 58)
I firmly believe that Minnesota is going to be a great OVER team this year. I took the OVER 65 in their game last week at Illinois and it didn't cash, but they did get to 55 points and it was against arguably the worst offense in the Big Ten.
Gophers did their part scoring 41 points on 541 total yards of offense. Minnesota is now averaging 36.3 ppg, 444 ypg and 6.3 yards/play. This is no shocker. This team averaged 34.1 ppg last year and returned 9 starters.
It's the defense where they lost a bunch of talent and it showed in their first two games, as they gave up 49 to Michigan at home and 45 to Maryland on the road. I don't think it magically got better against Illinois. The Illini are just that bad offensively and they were missing some key guys.
Iowa's offense put up 49 last week, but did only score 20 in their first two games against Purdue and Northwestern. I just think the Hawkeyes are going to be able to do as they please against Minnesota. Iowa's o-line should have their way and that's going to lead to a lot of big runs and plays down the field.
As for the Hawkeyes defense. It's your typical Kirk Ferentz defense, but I don't think it's quite as good as we have seen the last couple of years. They should also open up/relax a little if the offense is able to move the ball at will. Give me the OVER 58!
|11-09-20||Patriots v. Jets UNDER 41.5||30-27||Loss||-107||11 h 39 m||Show|
40* PATRIOTS/JETS MNF VEGAS INSIDER (Under 41.5)
This game has a defensive battle written all over it, there's just not a lot to get excited about with either offense in this game.
Cam Newton has been a massive disappointment since returning from Covid. In 3 starts his highest passing output is 174 yards. He has not thrown a single TD pass and has thrown 5 interceptions. He's also been sacked 7 times.
I expect Belichick to come into this game looking to establish the run. He knows his defense will be able to slow down that awful Jets offense. Thing is, Jets have a decent run defense and should get a boost playing at home on MNF against a team you hate to the core. As long as the offense doesn't turn it over a bunch, I think that NY defense will hold its own.
The Jets haven't scored more than 10 points in 4 straight games. It hasn't been much better for New England, which had scored 12 or fewer in 3 straight before scoring a mere 21 last week at Buffalo. It wouldn't surprise me at all if both teams failed to score 20. Give me the UNDER 41.5!
|11-07-20||Clemson v. Notre Dame UNDER 52||40-47||Loss||-109||99 h 58 m||Show|
40* CLEMSON/NOTRE DAME NCAAF SHARP STAKE (UNDER 52)
I contemplated taking Notre Dame and the points in this one, but I just don't trust the Irish enough in big games to pull the trigger. With that said, I was going to be on the UNDER either way here, as I think this game has a defensive battle written all over it.
A lot of people might not see it that way after Clemson just gave up 28 points in a near upset loss at home against BC. Thing is the Eagles have a special talent at quarterback in Phil Jurkovec. Ironically enough, Jurkovec transfer to BC from ND. I think he's better than Ian Book.
I also think the attention and focus will be at a much different level for Clemson's defense against Notre Dame than it was against Boston College. Keep in mind the defense picked up it's game in the 2nd half against the Eagles, as BC was shutout in the 2nd half.
Not only do I think it will be tough for Notre Dame to score, but without Trevor Lawrence this Clemson offense is not the same. I know D.J. Uiagalelei played well against BC and is highly touted, but this is not an easy spot for a true freshman on the road against a Notre Dame defense that is light years ahead of what he just faced in BC. Give me the UNDER 52!
|11-07-20||Baylor v. Iowa State UNDER 51.5||31-38||Loss||-110||122 h 27 m||Show|
40* BAYLOR/IOWA ST NCAAF SLAUGHTER (Under 51.5)
I really like the UNDER in this one. I think Baylor is an ideal UNDER team. The Bears have a decent defense and an offense that struggles to put up points. If you take away the 47 points (had two non-offensive TDs) against Kansas in their opener, Baylor is averaging just 20.0 ppg in their 3 other conference games.
As bad as 20.0 ppg looks, it could easily be worse. They had just 7 points before scoring in the final minutes of regulation against West Virginia. Against Texas they trailed 27-3 going into the 4th and added two garbage TD's for a final of just 27-16. Last week against TCU they trailed 33-7 with less than 5 minutes to play in the 3rd before scoring 16 meaningless points to lose 33-23.
Iowa State has a better defense than all 3 of those teams and this Cyclones team can't afford to overlook the Bears, as they need to win out to ensure a spot in the Big 12 title game. A shutout is not out of the question, but I'm confident ISU can hold Baylor to 17 or less.
Let's just say they some how happen to get to 17, Cyclones would need to score 35 for us to lose. Possible, but like I said, Baylor's got a decent defense. Mother nature may also help, as winds are expected be approaching 20 mph. Give me the UNDER 51.5!
|11-07-20||Minnesota v. Illinois OVER 60.5||41-14||Loss||-110||119 h 9 m||Show|
40* MINNESOTA/ILLINOIS NCAAF STEAMROLLER (OVER 60.5)
Unless the books put this total north of 70, there's a good chance I was going to be on the OVER. In fact, I'll probably be on the OVER in Minnesota games quite a bit this year.
There were concerns that the Gophers defense would take a step back with just 4 starters returning from last year's team. They appear to have not just taken a step back, but fallen off a cliff.
I think their defense got a pass in their opener when they gave up 49 points and 478 yards because their opponent was Michigan. Then they allowed 45 points and 675 yards to Maryland, as the Terps put up 281 on the ground and 394 thru the air.
Note that's the same Maryland offense that could only must 3 points and 207 yards in their opener against Northwestern.
I know Illinois' offense isn't great and starting QB Brandon Peters is not going to play, but i'm confident the Illini will be able to move the ball against this Gophers defense. Backup quarterback Coran Taylor had 273 yards and 2 scores in place of Peters in their last game against Purdue, so I'm not so sure the drop off is significant, if at all.
On the flip side of this, Minnesota's got some talent on offense and should be able to score 30+ with relative ease against this Illinois defense. Give me the OVER 60.5!
|11-07-20||West Virginia v. Texas OVER 54||13-17||Loss||-111||21 h 10 m||Show|
40* W VIRGINIA/TEXAS NCAAF MASSACRE (Over 54)
I like the value here with the OVER 54 between Texas and West Virginia. The Longhorns have proven to be an OVER team, as 5 of their 6 games have gone OVER the mark. The only exception coming against Baylor, who has one of the worst offenses of any Power 5 program.
West Virginia is not an offensive juggernaut, but are scoring a very respectable 33.0 ppg and averaging 465 yards/game. They got one of the better QBs no one is talking about in Jarret Doege. He's completing 64% of his attempts with 11-3 TD-INT ratio. I don't see Texas' defense slowing them down.
The Mountaineers defense has been great early and were sharp last week in a blowout win over K-State, but I don't see them slowing down this high-powered Texas offense on the road. W Virginia is giving up just 19.8 ppg, but have played the 3 worst offenses in the conference in Baylor, Kansas and K-State.
I know they didn't have a ton of yards, but you can't ignore the 41-pints Texas just put up against an even strong defense in Oklahoma State. Give me the OVER 54!
|11-01-20||49ers v. Seahawks OVER 54||27-37||Win||100||76 h 33 m||Show|
40* 49ERS/SEAHAWKS NFL DESTROYER (OVER 54)
It's hard to not play the OVER at less than 55 with Seattle. I know this is a division game, but this Seahawks defense is really bad. They are giving up 479.2 yards/game. That's dead last in the NFL. The next worst is the Jaguars at 424.4 ypg.
If it wasn't for the offense being as good as they are, I think this Seattle team would be viewed very differently. Even with how good the offense is, the Seahawks should have lost to the Vikings at home and easily could have lost to the Pats, Cowboys and Vikings.
Basically, the Seahawks have to score 30 every game, because that's what their defense allows. I don't see this game against the 49ers being any different. What Kyle Shanahan is doing with what he has to work with on offense is something special. The guy is just a step ahead of most other OCs.
As for the 49ers defense, I think they have looked great in their last two games. I also think they played a Pats offense that has no clue what they are doing right now and a very overrated Rams offense. Their other 4 opponents since Week 1 when they lost all those guys are the Dolphins, Eagles, Giants and Jets.
They just haven't been up against anything like Russell Wilson and this Seattle offense. Ryan Fitzpatrick torched this 49ers defense for 350 yards and 3 scores. I see Wilson putting up similar numbers. Give me the OVER 54!
|10-31-20||Mississippi State v. Alabama UNDER 64.5||0-41||Win||100||124 h 46 m||Show|
40* MISS ST/ALABAMA NCAAF KNOCKOUT (Under 64.5)
I don't play a ton of UNDERS in college football, but I really like this one between Mississippi State and Alabama. This Bulldogs offense is a joke. No clue why LSU didn't do it, but teams are simply rushing 3 and playing 8 in coverage against the Bulldogs. With an offensive line that can't block 3, there's nothing Mississippi State can do. They have scored 30 total points in their 3 games since putting up 44 in the opener against LSU.
It's not going to get any better against Alabama's defense. It wouldn't shock me at all if Mississippi State failed to score.
On the flip side of this, Mississippi State has a defense that has been playing extremely well. Bulldogs are only giving up 26.8 ppg and 296 ypg. They are allowing just 2.9 yards/carry and 4.6 yards/play.
I know that means nothing against Alabama, but this is now a Crimson Tide offense that no longer has one of their best receivers in Jaylen Waddle.
Think about it, Alabama can win 50-14 and that's not enough. I already said I don't think Mississippi State is getting to 14. I also don't think Alabama gets to 50. Give me the UNDER 64.5!
|10-31-20||Virginia Tech v. Louisville OVER 66||42-35||Win||100||97 h 33 m||Show|
40* VA TECH/LOUISVILLE NCAAF MASSACRE (Over 66)
I don't see a whole lot of defense being played in this one, as both of these offenses should have their way.
Prior to scoring just 16-points at Wake Forest last week, Va Tech had scored 38 or more in each of their first 4 with 3 going for 40 or more. They still had nearly 450 total yards in that game. They had 210 rushing yards, which was their lowest output all year. They are averaging 292 rushing yards/game and 6.5 yards/carry.
Louisville's defense has played better the last two games, but in both of those games they gave up over 230 rushing yards. Also two weeks ago the game against Notre Dame they were aided big time by strong winds and FSU isn't that great and were primed for a letdown off that big win over UNC. This is still the same defense that gave up 46 to Georgia Tech and 47 to Miami.
As for Virginia Tech's defense, they are giving up 441 yards/game and 6.1 yards/play. I know they have got some guys back that were out with Covid, but it's still not a great unit. Louisville's got a big time talent at QB in Cunningham and a couple of really good skill players. They also just had their best offensive game of the year last week, so they are trending in the right direction. Give me the OVER 66!
|10-31-20||Texas v. Oklahoma State OVER 57.5||41-34||Win||100||121 h 57 m||Show|
40* TEXAS/OKLAHOMA ST NCAAF STEAMROLLER (OVER 57.5)
I think there's a good chance we see 60 or more points in this one. Oklahoma State's offensive numbers are greatly skewed because of how much time starting QB Spencer Sanders has missed. He only played a few snaps in the opener against Tulsa and just returned last week against ISU.
While he threw 2 picks, he did complete 20 of 29 attempts for 295 and that's a really good Cyclones defense. Texas does not have a good defense. The Longhorns are giving up 32.2 ppg and that's with them only giving up 3 to UTEP and 16 last week to an awful Baylor offense. They allowed 56 at Texas Tech, 33 at home to TCU and 53 to Oklahoma. It would be a shock here if Texas didn't give up at least 30.
I also think there's a good chance Texas can score 30 or more. Oklahoma State's defense is only giving up 12.0 ppg, which is great, but a lot of that is schedule. Their first 4 were against Tulsa, W Virginia, Kansas and ISU. By far the best offense they faced so far is the Cyclones and ISU had over 100 yards more than what OK-State had been allowing. Now they face an even better Texas offense. Give me the OVER 57.5!
|10-31-20||LSU v. Auburn OVER 64.5||11-48||Loss||-109||96 h 33 m||Show|
40* LSU/AUBURN NCAAF CASH COW (Over 64.5)
I just feel that LSU is one of the best OVER teams in the country. I think all the guys LSU lost on offense, if you had to guess coming into the year if it would be the offense or defense that was holding this team back, everyone would have said the offense.
That's just not the case. LSU is averaging 42.0 ppg, 486 yards/game and averaging 6.6 yards/play. It's no where close to as good as last year with Burrow, but it's still one of the best units in the country.
They just scored 52 against South Carolina last week without their starting quarterback Myles Brennan. He's unlikely to play, but no big deal. TJ Finley completed 17 of 21 attempts for 265 yards and 2 scores (12.6 avg) against the Gamecocks.
Key here is LSU has to score a bunch, because their defense isn't very good. Not a real shocker given that Bo Pelini is their defensive coordinator. Just look at what they gave up to Mississippi State and what that Bulldogs offense has done in their 3 games since.
Even an average Auburn offense is going to find success against this defense, especially on their home turf. I think both teams easily hit the 30-point mark in this one. Give me the OVER 64.5!
|10-25-20||Packers v. Texans OVER 56.5||35-20||Loss||-115||87 h 50 m||Show|
40* PACKERS/TEXANS NFL STEAMROLLER (OVER 56.5)
I think the best game in terms of entertainment is going to be the showdown between Aaron Rodgers and the Packers vs Deshaun Watson and the Texans. I see both quarterbacks putting on a show and for these two teams to fly past the total here of 56.5.
Rodgers and the Packers got embarrassed last week by Tampa Bay's defense. Whenever a elite QB like Rodgers has an awful performance, they almost always find a way to not just play well, but play great in their next game. This Texans defense is one that GB can expose.
While I expect the offense to bounce back, I don't have the same confidence with the Green Bay defense. There's still a lot of holes on that side of the ball. I expect a tough day against a surging Texans' offense. Ever since O'Brien was fired Watson and the passing game have come to life. He's getting a chance to do more and that's how it should have been. O'Brien was more about running his offense than implementing an offense to fit his talent. Give me the OVER 56.5!
|10-25-20||Cowboys v. Washington Football Team UNDER 46.5||3-25||Win||100||87 h 49 m||Show|
40* COWBOYS/REDSKINS NFL SLAUGHTER (UNDER 46.5)
After watching Andy Dalton and that Cowboys offense struggle to get anything going against a bad Cardinals defense, I got no choice but to play the UNDER at this price, especially against an anemic Redskins offense. Now I will say I would lean Washington to win the game, but I just don't like playing a game with two bad teams.
I was one that thought Dallas' offense was going to be okay with Dalton. I just didn't realize it was as bad as it is on the offensive line. That was a below-average defensive front they just faced in the Cardinals, who were without their stud in Chandler Jones.
The Redskins are not below-average up front on defense. In fact, I think the defensive line is the best position group on the team, led by star rookie Chase Young. I just don't see Dalton and that Cowboys offense doing much.
Redskins have their own limitations on offense. I know they will likely move the ball against this Cowboys defense, but I don't think they are going to go pass-happy with a lead. Rivera will milk that clock and secure a much-needed win for his team. Play the UNDER 46.5!
|10-24-20||Nebraska v. Ohio State OVER 67.5||17-52||Win||100||47 h 25 m||Show|
40* NEBRASKA/OHIO ST NCAAF KNOCKOUT (Over 67.5)
I think we are going to see a ton of points on the scoreboard in the Big Ten opener between Nebraska and Ohio State. Ohio State score 46.9 ppg in 2019 and are loaded once again with junior quarterback Justin Fields back. They put up 48 points and 580 yards last year on Nebraska and should have similar success against a Cornhuskers defense that only brings back 5 starters (have to replace all 3 defensive linemen and 5 total in the front 7.
The key here for me is I think Nebraska is going to be able to score some points. They got 10 starters back on offense with an experienced junior QB in Adrian Martinez (21 starts). Ohio State is going to have a good defense, but I don't think it will be as good as last year when they gave up just 13.7 ppg. They lost a lot from that side of the ball, including the best defensive player in college in Chase Young.
Two other factors here that I think help push this over. First, I believe Ohio State has a ton of incentive here to run up the score. They need style points to try and make up for the time missed with the Big Ten starting so late. The other is the lack of fans, which definitely makes matters a lot easier on that Nebraska offense. Play the OVER 67.5!
|10-20-20||Rays v. Dodgers OVER 7.5||Top||3-8||Win||101||11 h 58 m||Show|
50* RAYS/DODGERS WORLD SERIES *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 7.5)
I would give the slight edge to the Dodgers in Game 1, but I just don't trust Kershaw enough to lay that kind of juice with LA. I instead will be taking the OVER 7.5. Could Kershaw pitch great? Sure. But based on what we have seen in the playoffs, it's not a toss up.
He was so good for 4 innings in his only start against the Braves and then things took a quick turn for the worse. When it was done he gave up 4 runs on 7 hits in 5 innings of a 2-10 loss. You also can't trust that Dodgers pen.
Key here is I think we are going to get a big game from that LA offense. The Dodgers can explode at any moment. We saw that in their 11-run first against the Braves in Game 3. I like Glasnow, but he hasn't been great in the playoffs. He has a 5.40 ERA and 1.350 WHIP. Guy also has a problem with serving up HRs (has allowed 17 in 15 starts). Give me the OVER 7.5!
|10-18-20||Packers v. Bucs OVER 54.5||10-38||Loss||-110||48 h 31 m||Show|
40* PACKERS/BUCS NFL STEAMROLLER (Over 54.5)
I don't know who is going to win this game. Green Bay has looked like the better team to this point, but I want nothing to do with betting against Tom Brady after a game where he's getting made fun of cause he didn't know what down it was.
I believe the value here is with the OVER at 54.5. I really think both of these quarterbacks are going to put on a show and we could see both teams score in the 30s. This is not Aaron Rodgers of the last few years. This is MVP Rodgers we are seeing in 2020. Green Bay has carved up every team they have faced. Teddy Bridgewater went 33 of 42 for 340 against this defense earlier this season and rookie Justin Herbert was 20 of 25 for 278. Rodgers will produce.
Brady and the Bucs offense was starting to get something figured out before that dud against the Bears on Thursday Night Football. I just think TB on short rest with the travel really helped out Chicago in that game. Green Bay's defense has also not been very good. It's just not getting any attention because of how good the offense has been. Packers are giving up 4.8 yards/carry (28th), while opposing QBs are completing 72.2% of their attempts with 7.4 yards/pass attempt. Give me the OVER 54.5!
|10-17-20||North Carolina v. Florida State OVER 63.5||28-31||Loss||-110||54 h 17 m||Show|
40* N CAROLINA/FLORIDA ST NCAAF STEAMROLLER (Over 63.5)
I just don't feel the books have set the total anywhere close to enough for Saturday's ACC matchup between No. 5 North Carolina and Florida State.
After a bit of a sluggish start to the 2020 season, we got a real good glimpse of just how good this Tar Heels offense can be in last week's win over then No. 19 Virginia Tech. UNC put up 56 points with 656 yards of total offense. They did as they pleased with Sam Howell throwing for 257 yards and 3 scores and the Tar Heels rushing for 399 yards and 5 scores.
That offense will now be up against a Florida State defense that has struggled against quality teams. The Seminoles allowed 52 points to Miami and 42 to Notre Dame. Both the Hurricanes and Irish had over 500 yards of total offense.
The key here is that we should see FSU's offense be able to score their fair share in this one. While UNC's offense was great in their win over the Hokies. They also gave up 45 points and 495 yards to Va Tech. Would have been a lot more had they started Hendon Hooker instead of sitting him the whole 1st half.
FSU's offense has also looked much better under Jordan Travis. He's really been able to stretch the field, as he's averaging 9.7 yards/completion. A major upgrade over what they were getting at the position. He can also make defenses pay with his legs. Hes rushed it 43 times for 235 yards and 2 scores. Give me the OVER 63.5.
|10-11-20||Cardinals v. Jets OVER 47||30-10||Loss||-115||146 h 15 m||Show|
40* CARDS/JETS NFL *STEAMROLLER* Over 47
I see a ton of value with a total less than 50 in Sunday's matchup between the Jets and Cardinals. One of the big reasons the total is so low, is the Jets offense has really struggled to score and are now without starting Darnold.
There's a lot worse options than veteran Joe Flacco and I just don't know that there's a massive drop off in the offensive potential with him under center. I also think this Arizona defense is a lot worse than people realize. Cardinals are only giving up 23.0 ppg, but are allowing 5.9 yards/play, giving up 4.5 yards/carry and 7.1 yards/pass attempt.
Most would say the Jets defense is awful and it has been. What might surprise you is how similar the Cardinals defense has been outside of the points allowed. Jets give up 32.8 ppg but only 5.8 yards/play, 4.2 yards/carry and 7.4 yards/pass attempts.
If the Jets can just get into the 20's here this thing should fly over. Kyler Murray and that Cardinals offense should score early and often. Give me the OVER 47!
|10-11-20||Panthers v. Falcons OVER 53||23-16||Loss||-110||119 h 19 m||Show|
40* PANTHERS/FALCONS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (OVER 53)
These two teams should have no problem eclipsing this total. Both of these teams can get after you offensively and neither has a defense that is all that imposing. The loss of Christian McCaffrey has not slowed down this Panthers team.
Carolina just racked up 444 yards in a 31-21 win over the Cardinals. Teddy Bridgewater thew for 276 yards and 2 scores, while the Panthers rushed for 168 yards on 35 attempts (4.8 yards/carry).
I really think we are seeing the impact Joe Brady (new offensive coordinator) is having with this team. Bridgewater is also one of the more underrated quarterbacks out there.
No reason to think that Carolina's offense won't be able to move the ball against this Atlanta defense. Falcons are 31st (ahead of only Seattle), giving up 448.3 ypg. Most of those coming via big pass plays, as they are 31st against the pass, allowing 341.5 ypg.
Sure Atlanta's defense has had a difficult task facing Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers in 3 of their first 4, but they also gave up 30 points to the Bears, allowing Foles to throw three 4th quarter touchdowns.
As far as the Falcons offense, we know they are going to put up points with Matt Ryan and that passing attack. Give me the OVER 53!
|10-11-20||Raiders v. Chiefs OVER 56.5||Top||40-32||Win||100||119 h 15 m||Show|
50* RAIDERS/CHIEFS AFC WEST PLAY OF THE MONTH (Over 56.5)
I know the history of these two teams has seen a lot of UNDERS, but I absolutely love the OVER in this matchup. Patrick Mahomes and that Kansas City offense really struggled last week against the Patriots. They played about as poorly as we have seen them since Mahomes became the starter.
The special players like Mahomes, always seem to bounce back from a bad game with one of their best. A motivated Mahomes should spell disaster for this Raiders defense. Oakland's giving up 30 ppg. They rank in the bottom half of the league against both the run and the pass. Last year Mahomes scored 28 in a quarter against this defense in the first matchup and KC put up 40 in the next meeting.
Key here is I expect Oakland to make a game of it. There's no question this Chiefs defense is better than they get credit for, but I just wonder if they aren't primed for a bit of a letdown here. They were clearly excited to play Week 1 against the Texans, then they had to carry them in a win at LA, after that it was Lamar and the Ravens and Belichick and the Pats.
Even though the Raiders are a big rival, it's not as big when the teams aren't on the same level in talent. Not to mention they got a HUGE game on deck at Buffalo next week. Bills are clearly one of the top teams in the AFC and only one team gets that first round bye this year. That's a massive tie-breaker game for the No. 1 seed. Give me the OVER 57!
|10-08-20||Bucs v. Bears OVER 44||19-20||Loss||-110||76 h 14 m||Show|
40* BUCCANEERS/BEARS NFL *VEGAS INSIDER (Over 44)
I really like the OVER 44 between the Bears/Bucs on Thursday Night Football. It's almost to the point you just got to take the OVER with a total this low. Going into Monday Night Football in Week 4, out of 14 games, 11 had 45 or more points with 8 of those going for 50+.
That includes a shootout last Thursday between two awful offensive teams, as the Broncos and Jets combined for 65. That game really speaks to just how hard it is on these defenses to play well in these Thursday games on short rest. You also have scoring up from a lack of fans and the refs not calling offensive holding near as much.
The big reason this total is so low, is because of how bad the Bears looked in Nick Foles first start. Chicago got next to nothing going in a home loss to the Colts, scoring just 11 points on 269 total yards (only had 3 points with less than 2 minutes to play in the 4th).
Thing is that Indy defense is extremely difficult to pass on. In fact, the Colts lead the NFL in pass defense, giving up just 159.3 ypg. The Bucs defense is more geared toward stopping the run. I think Foles and that offense can provide enough spark in this one to push us past.
As for Tampa Bay's offense, they are getting better and better as the season goes on. Tom Brady has not regressed like so many thought he would leaving NE. He threw 5 TDs in last week's come from behind win over the Chargers. He's going to want to play well in this one (prime time and rematch with Foles) and I expect him to do just that. Give me the OVER 44!
|10-08-20||Rays v. Yankees OVER 9||Top||1-5||Loss||-110||10 h 47 m||Show|
50* RAYS/YANKEES MLB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 9)
We have played and cashed easily on the OVER in each of the last two games in this series. All 3 games in this series have seen a combined 12 runs scored. The OVER is now a perfect 5-0 in Yankees postseason games. It's also 4-1 in the Rays postseason games. Tampa Bay has scored 15 runs in the last two games of this series and have scored 7 or more in 3 of their last 4 games overall.
I see no reason not to expect another high scoring game today. Rays are starting an opener in Ryan Thompson, who has only made 1 start this season (24 relief appearances). He's got a mere 4.44 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over his 26.1 innings of work.
New York will counter with Jordan Montgomery, who went just 2-3 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.295 WHIP in 10 starts. Montgomery hasn't pitched in a game since Sept. 24, so there definitely could be some rust with him in this one. Montgomery made 1 start vs TB this season and didn't get out of the 1st innings, recording just 2 outs, while giving up 4 runs on 5 hits (2 HRs). Give me the OVER 9!
|10-07-20||Rays v. Yankees OVER 9||Top||8-4||Win||100||10 h 42 m||Show|
50* RAYS/YANKEES MLB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 9)
We cashed the OVER 8 in yesterday's 7-5 Rays win. Each of the first two games in the series have both ended with 12 total runs scored. No way I'm backing off the OVER in Game 3.
The Yankees had just 5 hits and had a postseason record 19 strikeouts. They still scored 5 runs. Thanks largely to Stanton, who hit two homers. Stanton has homered in every playoff game for New York.
I'm expecting plenty more strikeouts for Yankees' hitters, but I also see them doing a lot more damage this time around against Charlie Morton. It was an off year for Morton. He started out slow, was hurt and really never hit his stride. He finished with a 4.74 ERA and 1.395 WHIP in 9 starts. He had a 4.40 ERA and 1.465 WHIP in his last 3.
New York counters with Tanaka, who was rocked for 6 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks in his start against the Indians in the first round of the playoffs. Tanaka also has had a down year with a 4.33 ERA in 11 starts. He's got a 7.20 ERA and 1.733 WHIP in his last 3. Give me the OVER 9!
|10-06-20||Yankees v. Rays OVER 8||5-7||Win||100||11 h 19 m||Show|
40* YANKEES/RAYS MLB VEGAS INSIDER (Over 8)
The Yankees have played 3 playoff games and scored at least 9 runs in all 3 games. It's not like they have been exploiting bad starters. The have faced the soon to be AL Cy Young winner in Bieber, Carrasco and Snell. I know Rays starter Tyler Glasnow comes into having pitched well, I just don't know that it matters with the way the Yankees are swinging the bat.
On top of that, this is a game the Rays could go off in. New York is sending out 21-year-old rookie Deivi Garcia, who has just 6 career starts to his name. While the future looks bright for Garcia, he posted a very mediocre 4.15 FIP and 4.65 xFIP. He also wasn't great in his last two starts, giving up 10 runs on 15 hits in 9 2/3 innings of work. Give me the OVER 8!
|10-05-20||Patriots v. Chiefs OVER 49||Top||10-26||Loss||-110||10 h 49 m||Show|
50* PATS/CHIEFS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 49)
I was on the OVER in this game before it got postponed and moved to tonight. I still think it's the play. Yes, I know Cam Newton isn't playing for the Patriots and he's been great in the first 3 games. I just don't think it's going to impact the scoring as much as some might think.
In fact, it could be a positive. With Cam there's a lot more QB runs, which would have allowed NE to try to eat up more clock and limit the number of times Mahomes got the ball. I also think this Chiefs defense is built for guys like Cam and Lamar. They can really make life miserable for a QB that wants to use his legs and really isn't a precision passer.
All indications are that Hoyer will be the starter over Stidham. I like that, but still would like the over if they switched last second.
As for the Chiefs, I think we finally saw their offense resemble what we thought it should look like in last week's complete beatdown against the Ravens. They put up 34 points on a great Baltimore defense and left plenty of points out there. Note Baltimore has allowed 39 points in their 3 other games.
Belichick is a great defensive mind, but Mahomes has now seen this NE defense enough to know what to expect. Thing is Pats can get away with just his coaching against most teams, but the overall talent level is not great on that side of the ball. We saw Russell Wilson go 21 of 28 for 288 and 5 TDs against this defense a couple weeks ago. Mahomes might throw for 5 TDs, but should put up at least similar numbers. Give me the OVER 49!
|10-04-20||Jaguars v. Bengals OVER 48.5||25-33||Win||100||100 h 43 m||Show|
40* JAGUARS/BENGALS NFL NO-BRAINER (OVER 48.5)
I’m expecting a lot of offensive fireworks on both sides of the ball, as we have two talented young signal callers facing off in Joe Burrow and Gardner Minshew.
Let’s start off talking about Burrow and the Bengals offense. Cincinnati is not holding back with their rookie quarterback. Burrow’s 141 pass attempts are 2nd only to the Cowboys Dak Prescott.
He’s the 12 ranked starting QB according to PFF (Pro Football Focus). What’s impressive with Burrow is he’s producing despite being under constant pressure. One thing to note on that is that the 3 teams he’s faced, Chargers, Browns and Eagles all have a ton of talent up front on the defensive line.
The Jaguars got a decent defensive end in Josh Allen, but the rest of that unit up front is trash. Jacksonville as a team has just 2 sacks in their first 3 games. They only could manage 1 against a Dolphins offensive line that is every bit as bad as what Cincinnati has. Not only will this help Burrow and give him more time for big plays down the field, it will also give the Bengals a more balanced attack with the run game, which should help sustain drives.
As for Minshew and the Jaguars offense, they put up 27 in Week 1 against a great Colts defense and then 30 on the road against the Titans. They did struggle in their last game, scoring just 13 points on Thursday Night Football against the Dolphins. Big thing to note with that game is that Minshew was without his top target in D.J. Chark. While he’s only practicing in a limited role, everything I’ve read is that he’s going to be good to go on Sunday.
The Bengals rank 14th in scoring defense at 24.7 ppg, but are way back at 24th in total defense, giving up 392.3 ypg. Thing is they held the Chargers to just 13 points, but that was when LA was still handicapping themselves with Tyrod Taylor at QB. They also just held the Eagles to 23, but Carson Wentz has been awful. Wentz is the 33rd ranked QB out of 35 in PFF.
The only decent offense they faced was the Browns and Cleveland is far from an offensive juggernaut. Browns had 35 points and 434 yards against that defense. Even if the Bengals get back All-Pro defensive tackle Geno Atkins, the rest of that Front 7 is garbage.
I think these two will have no problem eclipsing the 50 point mark. Not only will I be betting the OVER 48.5, but I’ve also got action on the OVER 23.5 for the 1st half. Give me the OVER 48.5!
|10-03-20||South Carolina v. Florida OVER 56.5||24-38||Win||100||94 h 35 m||Show|
40* S CAROLINA/FLORIDA NCAAF STEAMROLLER (Over 56.5)
I don't think the books have set the total anywhere close to enough for Saturday's SEC East showdown between Florida and South Carolina. The Gators flashed some serious potential last year when Kyle Trask took over as their starting QB midway through the season.
That experience in 2019 looks to be paying off, as Florida's offense couldn't have looked much better in their first game. Gators racked up 642 yards on their way to hanging 51 on the road against Ole Miss. Trask was a big part of that, as he went 30 of 42 for 416 yards and 6 scores.
The Gamecocks just gave up 31 to Tennessee at home in their opener and I just don't see them being able to contain this Gators attack on the road.
Key here is that while Florida figures to go up and down the field on offense, the Gamecocks should be able to have their own success moving the ball. While the offense was great against the Rebels, Florida's defense was torched for 613 yards and 29 first downs. They gave up 170 on the ground and 443 thru the air. Last year these combined for 65 in a 38-27 Florida win and I think we could see a similar, if not higher scoring, game this time around. Give me the OVER 56.5!
|09-30-20||Reds v. Braves UNDER 7.5||0-1||Win||100||3 h 37 m||Show|
40* REDS/BRAVES MLB (EARLY) MASSACRE (Under 7.5)
I don't see a lot of offense in this one. The Reds were one of the worst teams in MLB history to make the playoffs with a mere .211 team batting average. They only averaged 3.5 runs with a .204 average on the road.
With a guy like Trevor Bauer on the mound, I just think there's decent value with the total north of 7. Bauer was one of the best pitchers in the game. He finished up with a 1.73 ERA and 0.795 WHIP in 11 starts.
Atlanta will have a pretty good starter of their own going in Max Fried, as he posted a strong 2.25 ERA and 1.089 WHIP in 11 starts. Not to mention the Braves have a great bullpen. Give me the UNDER 7.5!
|09-27-20||Panthers v. Chargers OVER 43.5||21-16||Loss||-110||47 h 3 m||Show|
40* PANTHERS/CHARGERS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (OVER 43.5)
I see some decent value here with the low total set for this game. I think the assumption here is that the Panthers won't be able to move the ball without Christian McCaffrey. I don't think that's going to be the case. Despite only scoring 17 points in their WK 2 loss to the Bucs, they an impressive 427 total yards (outgained TB by almost 100 yards).
McCaffrey only had 59 rushing yards and 29 receiving yards against the Bucs. Teddy Bridgewater went 33 of 42 for 367 yards. DJ Moore had 8 catches for 120, Robby Anderson had 9 for 109 and Mike Davis caught 8 for 74.
As for the Chargers, I didn't make this a play until it was clear that rookie Justin Herbert was going to start over Tyrod Taylor. Herbert made big throw after big throw against the defending champs and did so not even knowing he was going to start until right before the game.
Carolina's defense is one of the worst in the league. I think Herbert and the Chargers are going to score at will, which will keep Bridgewater and the Panthers in a pass-heavy attack. Give me the OVER 43.5!
|09-25-20||Heat v. Celtics UNDER 213.5||Top||108-121||Loss||-115||12 h 38 m||Show|
50* CELTICS/HEAT NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Under 213.5)
As much as I want to fire back on the Heat at +3.5 after cashing on them in Game 4, I'm going to take the UNDER 213.5. Game 4 ended up going over the total by 9 points, but the OVER didn't look good for the majority of that game. We got a 35-33 4th quarter (a lot of late scoring). I get it happens, but I don't see Game 5 coming close to this number.
Miami wants to finish this thing off and the Celtics are facing elimination. We haven't seen a lot of games go OVER the total since the first round completed, especially late in the series like we are here. Give me the UNDER 213.5!
|09-24-20||Dolphins v. Jaguars OVER 47.5||Top||31-13||Loss||-110||54 h 42 m||Show|
50* DOLPHINS/JAGUARS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 47.5)
I don't want anything to do with the side in this game. I know we didn't get the best number, but I still love the OVER 47.5. I'm a big OVER guy in these Thursday games on short rest, especially early in the season. Add in how much more scoring we are getting in 2020 because of the shorten offseason and no fans and these two should hit 50 with ease.
Keep in mind everyone was calling for the UNDER last Thursday between the Browns and Bengals and that thing went flying past the total. As bad as these teams are, Fitzpatrick and Minshew are two guys that can sling it. They will both be up against an awful pass defense. Give me the OVER 47.5!
|09-22-20||Cubs v. Pirates UNDER 9||2-3||Win||100||9 h 26 m||Show|
40* CUBS/PIRATES MLB SHARP STAKE (Under 9)
We cashed a free pick on the Cubs/Pirates UNDER 8.5 on Monday and see no reason not to take the UNDER again on Tuesday. You simply have two offenses that are not swinging the bats well. Pirates are scoring 2.4 runs/game and hitting .165 in their last 7 games.
Cubs are a little better in their last 7 at 4.0 runs/game and .217 average, but that's far from impressive. Also, important to note that Pittsburgh is sending out lefty Steven Brault. Chicago is only scoring 3.0 runs/game and hitting .187 vs left-handed starters this season. Brault also owns a great 1.59 ERA and 0.838 WHIP in 5 home starts. Give me the UNDER 9!
|09-20-20||Patriots v. Seahawks OVER 44.5||Top||30-35||Win||100||51 h 56 m||Show|
50* PATRIOTS/SEAHAWKS *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 44.5)
I think we are getting some exceptional value here with the total in this one. I got nothing but respect for Bill Belichick and his ability to coach. He's going to get the most out of what he can. It's why one of my biggest plays in Week 1 was on the Pats -6.5 at Miami.
I'm not saying Russell Wilson is going to shred this NE defense, but I do think Seattle will be able to move the chains early and often. I know Atlanta is not a top tier defensive team, but putting up 38 on the road in Week 1 against a team like that is saying something.
The other big thing that I think might be getting overlooked is we saw Seattle throw the ball a lot more on early downs. Something so many have been begging them to do for years. It puts the ball in Wilson's hands more and that's huge. I don't think they do that in Week 1 and just go back to pounding the rock in Week 2.
On the flip side of all this is Cam Newton. Everything so far has been positive with Newton and I thought he played really well in Week 1. He was an efficient 15 of 19 passing (no interceptions). He also showed he's willing to run (75 yards on 15 attempts), which is how he won the MVP a few years ago.
Seattle's defense isn't what it once was. They gave up over 500 yards to the Falcons in Week 1. Atlanta had 3 different players catch 9 passes and all 3 had over 110 yards. I think Newton shows out in Prime Time and this thing turns into a bit of a shootout. Give me the OVER 44.5!
|09-20-20||Falcons v. Cowboys OVER 52.5||39-40||Win||100||98 h 58 m||Show|
40* FALCONS/COWBOYS NFL SHARP STAKE (OVER 52.5)
I'm a little bit surprised this number isn't higher. These are two explosive offenses that want to air it out to all their big playmakers at receiver. Dallas has a great back in Zeke, but Dak is not shy about letting it fly.
I know the Cowboys/Rams game went way UNDER in Week 1. A lot of that was the Rams playing ball control offense. LA rushed it 40 times (Dallas only ran it 27). Atlanta isn't going to play ball control offense. Falcons put up over 500 yards in Week 1 and only 72 of those came on the ground. Should be enough possessions to push this game well past the mark. Give me the OVER 52.5!
|09-17-20||Bengals v. Browns OVER 43.5||Top||30-35||Win||100||31 h 8 m||Show|
50* BENGALS/BROWNS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 43.5)
If you have been following my NFL for awhile, you know that I'm pretty big on the OVER in these Thursday night games. People just haven't caught on to how much the lack of rest impacts the play on the defensive side of the ball.
Factor in how bad the Browns and Bengals looked offensively in Week 1 and I think we are getting big time value with the total at 43.5. I know Cleveland has Garrett, but the Browns defense is no where near as good as the front Cincinnati last faced in the Chargers. Burrow also flashed some in that game and you have to like a guy that makes plays when it matters late.
As for the Browns poor showing, they just went up against a really good Baltimore defense. Cleveland was able to run on the Ravens and should move the chains on the ground against a Bengals defense that won't have their best guy up front in Geno Atkins. Cleveland also has a bunch of guys hurt on defense. Play the OVER 43.5!
|09-16-20||Mets v. Phillies UNDER 7.5||5-4||Loss||-105||9 h 54 m||Show|
40* METS/PHILLIES MLB VEGAS INSIDER (Under 7.5)
I just can't help myself with this one. There's a really high probability that we see this game finish UNDER the total of 7.5. Two of the NL's best will be on the mound in this one. Mets send out ace Jacob deGrom against former Met starter Zack Wheeler.
Not a lot needs to be said about deGrom. The guy is in the mix for another Cy Young in 2020. He's 4-1 with a 1.67 ERA and 0.870 WHIP in 9 starts. He has not had a start this season where he's given up more than 2 earned runs and enters this one on a streak of 5 straight allowing 1 or less.
Wheeler is 4-0 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.098 WHIP in 8 starts. He's in even better form than that right now, as he owns a 1.96 ERA in his last 3 starts. He's also been much better at home than on the road with a 1.97 ERA in 5 home starts. Give me the UNDER 7.5!
|09-14-20||Steelers v. Giants UNDER 45||Top||26-16||Win||100||8 h 23 m||Show|
50* STEELERS/GIANTS MNF MASSACRE (Under 45)
I really like the UNDER 45 in the early Monday Night Football matchup between the Steelers and Giants.
We know the Steelers defense is going to be good. It carried them last year and just felt like it kept getting better. They were outstanding against the run and should be again. They tied with NE allowing a league-low 7 rushing touchdowns. I think they can take away Barkley and I don't see Daniel Jones having a big day behind an offensive line that has 3 new starters.
As for the Steelers offense, there's a lot of optimism with the return of Big Ben. I just don't think he's going to be sharp in his first game back. I certainly don't think they are going to be looking to air it out.
I also think people could be sleeping some on the Giants defense. Most just remember how bad it was last year. They added 3 big pieces, including corner James Bradberry and defensive back Logan Ryan. Give me the UNDER 45!
|09-13-20||Indians v. Twins UNDER 8.5||5-7||Loss||-120||15 h 54 m||Show|
40* INDIANS/TWINS MLB SLAUGHTER (Under 8.5)
Easy play on the UNDER 8.5 in Sunday's AL Central showdown between the Indians and Twins. Getting to 9 runs will be a challenge with the two guys starting in this one. Cleveland's Triston McKenzie has a 2.57 ERA and 0.762 WHIP over 4 starts, while Minnesota's Michael Pineda has been dominant in two starts back from his suspension with a 2.77 ERA and 0.923 WHIP. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|09-13-20||Colts v. Jaguars OVER 44.5||20-27||Win||100||49 h 34 m||Show|
40* COLTS/JAGUARS NFL NO-BRAINER (Over 44.5)
I was a bit shocked that this total wasn't closer to 50. The Jaguars have decimated their defense of all their top players over the last two seasons. Right before this year they traded away their star pass-rusher in Yannick Ngakoue, as well as corner A.J. Bouye and defensive lineman Calais Campbell. This team isn't stopping anyone.
I look for Philip Rivers to make quite the debut with his new team in Indy. This might be the best offensive line he's been behind in a decade. Colts are going to have balance with the run game and got playmakers on the outside.
I got a lot of respect for the Colts defense, but I think Gardner Minshew will be able to get the Jaguars into the endzone. I think Jacksonville is going to air it out even more in 2020 under new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden. I also don't think we need a ton from the Jags to push this OVER the mark. Give me the OVER 44.5!
|09-13-20||Bears v. Lions OVER 42||27-23||Win||100||49 h 33 m||Show|
40* BEARS/LIONS NFL STEAMROLLER (OVER 42)
I think the public perception with Chicago is that this is an UNDER team given their strong defense and lackluster QB play with Mitch Trubisky as their starter. Thing is, Trubisky has had a lot of success against Detroit since Matt Patricia took over. In fact, he's averaging 288.7 ypg with 9-1 TD-INT ratio over 3 starts.
As for the Bears defense, they will be without one of their better players in DE Robert Quinn, star linebacker Khalil Mack is also questionable. I just think with Matthew Stafford at the helm, Detroit is going to able to score, especially at home. People forget just how good this Lions offense was before Stafford tweaked his back last year.
Another thing to note, OVER has casheed in 12 of the last 13 Week 1 games involving Detroit. OVER was also 6-1 in their last 7 at home in 2019. I just feel like there's a good chance both teams eclipse 20 points and all we need is 43 combined to cash this ticket. Give me the OVER 42!
|09-12-20||UL-Lafayette v. Iowa State OVER 56.5||31-14||Loss||-110||70 h 58 m||Show|
40* UL-LAFAYETTE/IOWA ST NCAAF NO-BRAINER (Over 56.5)
I look for both offenses to have a ton of success in this game. While ISU only has 5 starters back and didn't exactly have a ton of practice time because of Covid, they should be in good shape with one of the best quarterbacks in the country in junior Brock Purdy.
Purdy is coming off a sophomore season in which he threw for nearly 4,000 yards with a 27-9 TD-INT ratio. ISU also gets back their top running back, who was 2nd-Team All-Big 12 as a true freshman last year. They also have one of the best TE groups in the nation.
UL-Lafayette only gave up 19.7 ppg last year, but that's a bit misleading given all the crap teams they play. They gave up 38 points and nearly 500 yards of offense in their opener against Mississippi State.
ISU has been one of the better defensive teams in the Big 12 under head coach Matt Campbell, but they are more built to stop the pass. The Ragin' Cajuns averaged 257 rushing yards on 6.3 yards/carry last year. They got their stud RB back and also have a very underrated QB in Levi Lewis. They are going to score points. Give me the OVER 56.5
|09-10-20||Texans v. Chiefs OVER 54.5||20-34||Loss||-104||54 h 5 m||Show|
40* CHIEFS/TEXANS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Over 54.5)
I don't get the vibe at all that KC is going to suffer any kind of Super Bowl hangover. I follow this team closely and they are 100% locked in. While I think they cover the big number, I'm not really interested in laying that in Week 1.
However, I do see some decent value here with the OVER 54.5. I just think Mahomes and this Chiefs offense are going to be almost impossible to stop. They got all their big weapons back and added in Clyde Edwards-Helaire at RB (absolute perfect fit). I think they will be every bit as good and if not better than the 35.3 ppg they put up in Mahomes MVP season in 2018.
Keep in mind the continuity the Chiefs offense has should benefit them even more this season with all the offseason time missed because of Covid.
I don't think the defense will be bad, but they are going to give up points and you got a big time talent at QB on the other side in this one in Watson. They simply get to 20 and I think we cash this easy. Give me the OVER 54.5!
|09-09-20||Reds v. Cubs UNDER 6.5||3-0||Win||102||10 h 54 m||Show|
40* REDS/CUBS MLB SHARP STAKE (UNDER 6.5)
You don't see many totals this low in baseball anymore, but the low number is not going to scare me away from what I feel is a strong play. I just don't see much offense at all from either side in Wednesday's game between the Cubs and Reds.
Two of the best starters in baseball will be facing off against each other. Cubs send out Yu Darvish, who has to be the frontrunner right now for NL Cy Young. Reds counter with Trevor Bauer. Darvish has an NL best 1.44 ERA and Bauer is No. 4 at 2.05. Bauer on the other hand has a NL best 0.86 WHIp and Darvish is T-2nd at 0.88.
These two just faced off against each other a couple weeks ago and the final score was 3-0. With the wind blowing in close to 15 mph at Wrigley and cooler than normal temps for September, I see a very similar type of score in this one. Give me the UNDER 6.5!
|09-04-20||Cardinals v. Cubs UNDER 8||1-4||Win||100||9 h 9 m||Show|
40* CARDINALS/CUBS MLB VEGAS INSIDER (Under 8)
I love the UNDER 8 in Friday's big NL Central rivalry game between the Cubs and Cardinals. Two really good starters take the mound in this one. St Louis will send out Jack Flaherty, who has a 1.93 ERA and 0.803 WHIP in 4 starts. Chicago will counter with Yu Darvish, who is even better with a 1.47 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 7 starts.
Flaherty has a 2.84 ERA in 10 career starts against the Cubs. Darvish has held the Cardinals two 3 or fewer runs in at least 6 innings in his last 4 starts against them. Give me the UNDER 8!
|09-02-20||Thunder v. Rockets UNDER 216.5||102-104||Win||100||11 h 54 m||Show|
40* ROCKETS/THUNDER NBA NO-BRAINER (Under 216.5)
There's really no choice here but to take a shot with the UNDER in Game 7 between the Rockets and Thunder. With the Nuggets/Jazz going well under the total last night (combined for just 158 points with a total of 215.5), UNDERS are now a perfect 7-0 in Game 7s going back to the start of last postseason.
The Rockets have been such a high-scoring team this season that I just think people have a hard time taking the UNDER. Thing is playoffs are a different beast and the Thunder matchup really well with them on the defensive side. UNDER has cashed in each of the last two in the series. Give me the UNDER 216.5!
|09-02-20||Mets v. Orioles OVER 10||9-4||Win||100||6 h 7 m||Show|
40* METS/ORIOLES MLB SHARP STAKE (OVER 10)
The numbers suggest there's a high probability that we will see more than 10 runs in this matchup. You got two really bad starters going in Baltimore's John Means and New York's Michael Wacha. You also got an ideal day for hitting. Wind will be blowing out to center at close to 10 mph, humidity is expected to be around 70% and a heat index of 95+.
Means has been Baltimore's worst pitcher (starter or reliever) in terms of WAR (-0.3). There's nothing fluky about his 8.59 ERA, as his FIP comes in at 7.99. He's given up a staggering 3.68 home runs/9 innings and he's got a fortunate .233 BABIP.
Wacha has a 7.41 ERA and while his 4.50 FIP suggests he's not that bad, that's still not very good. He too has struggled to keep it in the park with a 2.2 HR/9. You also have to factor in how well Orioles are swinging the bat right now. Give me the OVER 10!
|08-30-20||Clippers v. Mavs OVER 238||111-97||Loss||-100||6 h 19 m||Show|
40* MAVS/CLIPPERS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Over 238)
I want to take Dallas and the points, but I try to stay clear of public dogs. Wouldn't surprise if they did cover. With that said, I feel the better bet is on the OVER. The Clippers made easy work of the Mavs defense in Game 4. They put 154 points on 63% shooting. I just don't think Dallas will be able to slow them down. They seemed to come out with a different fire in Game 4 and I don't see that going away. Key here is Luka and the Mavs will not go down without a fight and with Luka the Mavs are going to score. Give me the OVER 238!
|08-30-20||Indians v. Cardinals UNDER 8||2-7||Loss||-105||5 h 16 m||Show|
40* INDIANS/CARDINALS MLB NO-BRAINER (Under 8)
I just feel that these two teams are going to have a hard time scoring runs with the talent that each team will send out to the mound. Indians Aaron Civale has a 3.15 ERA and 1.025 WHIP in 6 starts. Big positive here is he's got an even better 2.89 ERA and 0.893 WHIP in 4 road starts this season. Adam Wainwright will go for St Louis. He's got a 2.88 ERA and 0.960 WHIP in 4 starts. He also owns a 1.64 ERA and 0.818 WHIP in 2 day starts this season. Give me the UNDER 8!
|08-29-20||Mariners v. Angels UNDER 8.5||3-16||Loss||-110||13 h 41 m||Show|
40* MARINERS/ANGELS LATE NIGHT BAILOUT (Under 8.5)
I really like the value here with the UNDER 8.5 in tonight's late action between the Angels and Mariners. Great pitching matchup in this one, which is going to make it tough for these two to combine for 9 or more.
Mariners will send out Justus Sheffield, who is one of the top young arms in the game. He had a rough first two starts, but has completely turned it around. He's got a 1.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his last 3 starts.
Dylan Bundy will go for the Angels. He's got a sensational 2.58 ERA and 0.887 WHIP in 6 starts. Bundy also owns a strong 2.45 ERA and 0.716 WHIP in 4 career starts against the Mariners. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|08-25-20||Mavs v. Clippers OVER 234.5||Top||111-154||Win||100||11 h 15 m||Show|
50* MAVS/CLIPPERS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 234.5)
I wanted to take the points with the Mavs and might have a little side action on them, but I believe the real value in this game is the OVER. These are two of the best offenses the NBA has to offer. Mavs have shot 50% or better from the field in 3 straight games. Luka Doncic has taken his game to another level and this Dallas team is oozing with confidence after winning Game 4 on a buzzer beater. There's just too much star-power and great shooters on the floor. I think this total should be closer 240. Give me the OVER 234.5!
|08-25-20||Jazz v. Nuggets OVER 219||107-117||Win||100||9 h 44 m||Show|
40* NUGGETS/JAZZ NBA NO-BRAINER (Over 219)
I think we are getting a steal with the total sitting less than 220 for Game 5 between the Nuggets and Jazz. Utah has Denver's defense figured out and I don't think there's anything they are going to implement in this one that will change the outcome. Jazz have scored at least 124 points in all 4 games to this point. They have shot 51% or better in the last 3, including 58% in Game 4, a game Denver had to have. Nuggets have allowed 50% or better shooting in 6 of their last 7 overall. It is what it is at this point. All we need is for Denver to not have a horrible night shooting and this thing should fly past the number. Give me the OVER 219!
|08-24-20||Twins v. Indians UNDER 8.5||3-2||Win||110||10 h 19 m||Show|
40* TWINS/INDIANS MLB SHARP MONEY (Under 8.5)
I will take my chances with the UNDER 8.5, as we got a big time pitching matchup going down in Cleveland with the Indians Aaron Civale taking on the Twins Kenta Maeda. Civale has a 2.91 ERA and 0.971 WHIP in 5 starts. His great pitching combined with the Indians lackluster offense has resulted in the UNDER cashing in 4 of his 5 starts.
Maeda has been equally impressive for Minnesota, as he has a 2.27 ERA and 0.632 WHIP in 5 starts. He was spectacular in his last outing, allowing just 1 run on 1 hit with 12 K's in 8 innings against the Brewers.
Also important to note, both teams have strong bullpens to keep this thing in check late. Twins relievers own a 3.44 ERA and 1.203 WHIP, while Cleveland's pen has a 2.73 ERA and 1.039 WHIP. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|08-23-20||Nuggets v. Jazz OVER 217||127-129||Win||100||12 h 11 m||Show|
40* NUGGETS/JAZZ NBA NO-BRAINER (Over 217)
I see a ton of value here with the OVER 217 in Game 4 between the Nuggets and Jazz. These two flew past the posted totals in Game 1 and Game 2. They combined for 160 in Game 1 and 129 in Game 2. They did go for just 211 in Game 3, but that was with the Nuggets scoring just 87 points on a miserable 38% shooting. Denver had shot 52% and 46% in the first two games. Utah has scored at least 124 in all 3 games. I see this easily getting to 220 and wouldn't be shocked if it eclipsed 230. Give me the OVER 217!
|08-23-20||Angels v. A's UNDER 9||Top||4-5||Push||0||7 h 24 m||Show|
50* ANGELS/A'S AL WEST PLAY OF THE WEEK (Under 9)
I really like the value here with the UNDER 9 between the A's and Angels. I think we are getting some value with the number here as we got a couple of strong starters coming off a poor start last time out. Dylan Bundy gave up 4 runs in 4 innings against the Giants, while Frankie Montas allowed 9 runs in just 1 2/3 innings at Arizona. Bundy still owns a stellar 2.47 ERA and 0.796 WHIP in 5 starts overall and Montas has a sensational 1.69 ERA and 0.937 WHIP in 3 home starts this season. Give me the UNDER 9!
|08-22-20||Lakers v. Blazers UNDER 225||Top||116-108||Win||100||28 h 18 m||Show|
50* BLAZERS/LAKERS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Under 225)
The books keeping dropping the total, but I don't think they have adjusted enough for Game 3. The Lakers/Blazers combined for just 193 points in Game 1, which had a total of 234. They then had just 199 in Game 2 with a total of 227.5
The Lakers defense has completely shut down the Blazers offense. Portland shot a mere 39% in their win in Game 1 and hit only 40% in Game 2. Lakers had a great offensive game and still only had 111 points. LA shot 48% from the field and connected on 14 3-pointers after making only 5 in Game 1.
I just think we are going to see more of the same from the Lakers defense. With how inconsistent the Lakers shooting has been, they likely regress from their strong Game 2 performance. Give me the UNDER 225!
|08-21-20||Blue Jays v. Rays UNDER 9||6-5||Loss||-111||9 h 2 m||Show|
40* BLUE JAYS/RAYS MLB STEAMROLLER (Under 9)
I really like the value here with the UNDER 9 in Friday's AL East matchup between the Rays and Blue Jays. I just think that Toronto plays in such a hitter-friendly home park that there's going to be value on the UNDER when they hit the road. Note the Blue Jays are scoring 4.6 runs/game and hitting .252 on the season, yet are only averaging 3.9 runs/game with a .231 average on the road.
Blue Jays starter, Matt Shoemaker, is 4-0 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.010 WHIP in 6 career starts against the Rays. Two of those coming this season. Ryan Yarbrough will start for Tampa Bay and he's also made 2 starts against the Blue Jays. He's thrown 8 1/3 innings and has not allowed a run. Give me the UNDER 9!
|08-20-20||Reds v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5||Top||4-5||Loss||-105||10 h 40 m||Show|
100* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8.5)
I absolutely love the value here with the UNDER 8.5 in tonight's NL Central showdown between the Cardinals and Reds. Cincinnati will have ace Sonny Gray on the mound, who is 4-1 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.913 WHIP in 5 starts. Gray also owns a sensational 1.08 ERA and 0.960 WHIP in 3 career starts (all last season) against the Cardinals.
St. Louis will turn to veteran Adam Wainwright. While he's only made 2 starts, he's been exceptional in both, posting a 1.64 ERA and 0.818 WHIP. He just hasn't been able to start cause the Cardinals missed so many games. I think more rest definitely helps him perform better at this stage of his career. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|08-20-20||Phillies v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5||2-3||Loss||-105||3 h 33 m||Show|
40* PHILLIES/BLUE JAYS EARLY BIRD NO-BRAINER (Over 8.5)
I don't care that this is only a 7-inning game. I still see a ton of value with the OVER 8.5 in Game 1 between the Blue Jays and Phillies. The ball is absolutely flying at Sahlen Field. I think people are starting to catch on, but I don't know that the books have quite adjusted.
With Spencer Howard on the mound for Philadelphia and Chase Anderson toeing the rubber for Toronto, I think both offenses have a shot here of eclipsing the total on their own. Either way, they should have no problem combing for at least 9 runs. Give me the OVER 8.5!
|08-19-20||Tigers v. White Sox UNDER 9||3-5||Win||100||10 h 30 m||Show|
40* TIGERS/WHITE SOX MLB STEAMROLLER (Under 9)
I really like the value here with the UNDER 9 in Wednesday's AL Central matchup between the White Sox and Tigers. We are getting a great price because of both teams sending out a guy making his first career start. Thing is, these are two highly touted prospects that are ready for the spotlight. This also figures to be a great day to pitch, as the wind will be blowing in at Guaranteed Rate Field and temps will be in the mid to low 70s. Look for both offenses to struggle to get going in this one. Give me the UNDER 9!
|08-17-20||Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 229.5||Top||110-118||Win||100||11 h 8 m||Show|
50* MAVS/CLIPPERS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Under 229.5)
I really like the value here with the UNDER at 229.5 in Game 1 between the Clippers/Mavs. I know Dallas didn't play great defense in their 8-game bubble restart, but you have to keep in mind they really had nothing to play for. They were all but locked into the No. 7 seed in the west. I think the intensity goes up a lot for the Mavs. As for the Clippers, they are a top tier defensive team, but I feel they got another level they can take it to. Play the UNDER 229.5!
|08-16-20||Padres v. Diamondbacks OVER 9||4-5||Push||0||7 h 55 m||Show|
40* PADRES/DBACKS MLB NO-BRAINER (Over 9)
When you factor in how bad Arizona starter Robbie Ray has been and the recent rate at which the Diamondbacks offense has been producing, I think the OVER is definitely worth a shot on Sunday.
Over their last 5 games the Diamondbacks are averaging 7.4 runs/game. They are hitting .312 as a team with a .356 OBP and .492 SLG during this stretch.
Ray has made 4 starts for Arizona and if it wasn't for what he's done in the past, I don't think he would still be in the rotation. Ray has a 10.58 ERA and 2.116 WHIP in 4 starts. He's allowed at least 5 runs in each of his last 3 outings. He can't locate the ball. He's given up 7 HRs and walked 14 in 17 innings. Give me the OVER 9!
|08-14-20||Rays v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5||4-12||Win||100||9 h 42 m||Show|
40* RAYS/BLUE JAYS OVER/UNDER VEGAS INSIDER (Over 9.5)
The ball simply is flying out of Sahlen Field, which is where the Blue Jays are playing their home games this season. Toronto just played their first two games at Sahlen Field against the Marlins and the two teams combined for 34 runs on 43 hits (11 HRs) in those two games. Now you got a Rays offense that is scorching coming to down. Tampa Bay just put up 42 runs in their 4 game series at Boston with at least 8 runs in each game. Give me the OVER 9.5!
|08-12-20||Cubs v. Indians UNDER 8||Top||7-2||Loss||-115||8 h 30 m||Show|
50* CUBS/INDIANS MLB TOP PLAY (Under 8)
I absolutely love the value with the UNDER 8 in this one. I correctly predicted that the Cubs would be the first team all season to score 5 or more runs against the Indians in yesterday's 7-1 win. I don't feel so confident with them doing it two games in a row.
In fact, I wouldn't be shocked at all if they struggled to score a mere 3 runs. Cleveland will have Carlos Carrasco on the mound, who has a 2.50 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 3 starts.
Cubs will counter with Kyle Hendricks. While Hendricks is normally a guy I look to fade on the road, Cleveland's offense is so bad that I like him to pitch well here. It doesn't hurt that the wind will be blowing in from right. Give me the UNDER 8.
|08-09-20||Indians v. White Sox UNDER 7.5||Top||5-4||Loss||-110||20 h 26 m||Show|
50* SUNDAY NIGHT BASEBALL PLAY OF THE MONTH (Under 7.5)
I really like the value here with the UNDER 7.5 between the White Sox and Indians. Two really good starters will take the mound in this one. Lucas Giolito is coming off a breakout 2019 season. He had a rough first start, but has been outstanding in his last two, giving up just 2 runs on 8 hits with 15 strikeouts in 12 innings. Definitely helps that he's facing a Indians offense that struggles to score runs. His second start was against Cleveland and he threw 6 shutout innings.
Cleveland will have Shane Bieber on the mound and he's been lights out in 2020. Bieber is 3-0 with a 0.83 ERA and 0.692 WHIP in 3 starts. He's absolute mowing people down, as he's got a ridiculous 35 strikeouts (only 3 walks) in 21 2/3 innings. Bieber has a 3.08 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in 6 career starts against Chicago, while Giolito has a 2.56 ERA and 1.074 WHIP in 5 career starts against Cleveland. Give me the UNDER 7.5!
|08-09-20||Reds v. Brewers UNDER 7.5||3-9||Loss||-100||15 h 29 m||Show|
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 7.5)
Easy play on the UNDER at 7.5 for me. Two of the top NL starters take the mound in this one. The Reds will send out Sonny Gray, who has been outstanding. Gray is 3-0 with a 0.96 ERA and 0.696 WHIP in 3 starts. Dating back to last season he's posted 13 straight starts where he's allowed 3 or fewer runs (18 of his last 19 overall).
Milwaukee will turn to Brandon Woodruff, who has a strong 2.08 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in 3 starts this season. He's only given up 4 runs in 17 1/3 innings with 21 strikeouts. He faced Cincinnati twice last year and allowed just 4 runs with 18 K's in 13 innings of work. Gray has a 2.29 ERA in 6 career starts against the Brewers. Give me the UNDER 7.5!
|08-08-20||Diamondbacks v. Padres UNDER 7.5||Top||3-2||Win||100||12 h 3 m||Show|
50* MLB NL WEST TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 7.5)
I absolutely love the value here with the UNDER 7.5 between the Padres and Diamondbacks. Neither offense could get much of anything going in the series opener last night, as San Diego pulled out a 3-0 win with the two teams combing for a mere 9 hits. It figures to be more of the same on Saturday with the two starters we got going.
Diamondbacks will send out Merrill Kelly, who has a 2.63 ERA and 0.951 WHIP in his first 2 starts of 2020. Both of which were quality starts. Padres will counter with the highly underrated Chris Paddack, who is one of the best starters in the game right now. Paddack has a 2.65 ERA and 0.941 WHIP in his first 3 starts. Dating back to last year, Paddack has now gone 7 straight starts where he's allowed 3 or fewer runs. Give me the UNDER 7.5!
|08-08-20||Twins v. Royals OVER 9.5||6-9||Win||100||10 h 3 m||Show|
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 9.5)
I look for the Twins/Royals to have no problem combining for at least 10 runs on Saturday. While this might look like a good pitching matchup with Kansas City sending out Danny Duffy and Minnesota giving the rock to Jake Odorizzi, conditions will not be in favor of the pitchers in this one.
It's going to be incredibly humid for this game. While temps are expected to be in the high 80's, the humidity is going to be close to 80%, which is going to result in a heat index approaching 110 degrees at the start of this game. On top of that the wind will be blowing straight out to left field. Ball figures to be flying out of the park in this one. Give me the OVER 9.5!
|08-07-20||Tigers v. Pirates UNDER 8.5||17-13||Loss||-114||9 h 22 m||Show|
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 8.5)
I just feel like this price is too good to pass up given how bad these two teams have been offensively. I get that Detroit starter Matt Boyd hasn't been great in his first two starts and Chad Kuhl will be making his first start since 2018 for Pittsburgh.
These two offenses are atrocious. Tigers have played 10 games now and are hitting a pathetic .205 with a team OBP of just .265. Pirates are even worse at .191 and .253. Detroit has scored 3 or fewer runs in 3 of their last 4. Pittsburgh has been held to 3 or less in 6 of their last 8. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|08-07-20||Magic v. 76ers OVER 222.5||Top||101-108||Loss||-105||8 h 24 m||Show|
50* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 222.5)
I see a ton of value here with the OVER 222.5. Last time out the Magic played a very low scoring game against the Raptors, which ended at 208 with a total of 222. However, each of their first 3 games had gone over the total. All 3 seeing at least 229 and all 3 the Magic gave up 116 or more.
While the 76ers won't have Ben Simmons for this game, I think that could play to our advantage. It gets another guy who can hit a 3-ball on the floor. I actually think the loss of Simmons hurts them more on the defensive side and the 76ers defense has stunk in the bubble so far. I could easily see both teams hitting 120 in this one. Give me the OVER 222.5!
|08-06-20||Angels v. Mariners UNDER 9||Top||6-1||Win||100||7 h 48 m||Show|
50* AL WEST TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 9)
I absolutely love the value with the UNDER 9 in Thursday's AL West showdown between the Mariners and Angels. I really like both starters in this one. LA is sending out Dylan Bundy, who looks to be having a breakout season. Bundy has a 2.84 ERA and 0.710 WHIP in his first 2 starts. What really stands out to me is how he's getting guys to miss. He has 15 strikeouts in 12 2/3 innings of work.
Mariners will give the rock to Taijuan Walker. He had a tough first start on the road against a loaded Astros lineup. As expected, he bounced back in a big way in his next start. He held the A's to just 1 hit with 8 K's in 7 shutout innings at home. Last time he faced the Angles (Sept. 2019), he pitched a 3 hit complete game shutout. Give me the UNDER 9!
|08-05-20||Reds v. Indians UNDER 8||0-2||Win||100||10 h 36 m||Show|
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Under 8)
I see some decent value with the UNDER 8 on the total for Wednesday's game between the Indians and Reds. Cleveland's offense is struggling to say the least. The fact that they have scored a mere 10 runs in their last 7 games says it all.
I get we don't know just what the Reds have in today's starter Tejay Antone, but we can be pretty confident he pitches well against this Indians offense. As for Cincinnati's offense, they too figure to have a hard time scoring runs against Cleveland starter Mike Clevinger. Give me the UNDER 8!
|08-04-20||White Sox v. Brewers UNDER 8||3-2||Win||102||10 h 1 m||Show|
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 8)
I really like the UNDER 8 between the White Sox and Brewers. It's all about the starting pitching matchup. White Sox will send out Lucas Giolito, who is coming off a breakout 2019 season. Giolito did struggle in his first start of 2020, but was outstanding in his last start against the Indians, giving up just 4 hits in 6 shutout innings.
Brandon Woodruff will go for Milwaukee and he's quietly had a great start to this season. Woodruff gave up just 2 runs in 5 innings at Chicago in his first start and then allowed just 1 hits over 6 shutout innings at Pittsburgh. He's also got a strong 15 K's in 11 1/3 innings of work. Give me the UNDER 8!
|08-03-20||Mets v. Braves UNDER 8||7-2||Loss||-114||10 h 50 m||Show|
40* MLB OVER/UNDER VEGAS STEAMROLLER (Under 8)
There's no reason to overthink this one. The UNDER 8 is a no-brainer given the two guys that will be starting this game. Everyone knows how good the Mets Jacob deGrom is. For those that don't know, Atlanta's Mike Soroka is just as good.
Soroka had a 2.68 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 29 starts last year, which was his first full season at the big league level. He's opened up 2020 by posting a 1.59 ERA and 0.971 WHIP in his first 2 starts. deGrom has a 1.64 ERA and 0.545 WHIP in his first 2 starts. Soroka has a 2.27 ERA in 6 starts vs the Mets and deGrom has a 1.90 ERA in 22 starts against the Braves. Give me the UNDER 8!
|08-01-20||Indians v. Twins UNDER 9||0-3||Win||100||10 h 13 m||Show|
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 9)
I think we are getting some great value here with the UNDER 9 in Saturday's AL Central showdown between the Twins and Indians. Two really good starters take the mound in Minnesota's Kenta Maeda and Cleveland's Carlos Carrasco. Both guys pitched well in their first start of the season. Maeda gave up just 2 runs with 6 strikeouts in 5 innings, while Carrasco allowed 2 runs with 10 strikeouts in 6 innings. I look for both offenses to struggle to get going in this one. Give me the UNDER 9!
|07-29-20||Padres v. Giants UNDER 8||6-7||Loss||-114||13 h 35 m||Show|
40* MLB LATE NIGHT OVER/UNDER TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Under 8)
I like the value here with the UNDER 8 in Wednesday's late night action between the Giants and Padres. San Diego will have one of the best young starters in the game going in Chris Paddack. Last year Paddack posted a 3.33 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 26 big league starts (first year in the majors). He didn't miss a beat in his first start of 2020, throwing 6 shutout innings against a good Dbacks lineup. Johnny Cueto goes for the Giants and while he only made it 4 innings in his first start, he did hold a loaded Dodgers lineup to just 1 run on 5 hits. I think Cueto is a guy to watch out for going forward. Give me the UNDER 8!
|07-29-20||Nationals v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5||Top||4-0||Win||100||9 h 50 m||Show|
50* MLB INTERLEAGUE TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 8.5)
I think we are getting some exceptional value here with the total. Washington will have ace Max Scherzer on the mound, who i'm confident is going to have a monster start after a less than stellar first outing. Scherzer did strikeout 11 of the 17 batters he retired. Toronto also doesn't have near the offensive fire-power as the Yankees. The value here stems from Blue Jays starter Nate Pearson, who is making his big league debut. Pearson is a legit top tier prospect. He can light up the radar (100 mph fastball) and more importantly is facing a Nationals lineup that has really struggled to get anything going in 2020. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|07-26-20||Angels v. A's UNDER 9||4-6||Loss||-106||7 h 8 m||Show|
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 9)
I will gladly take my chances here on the UNDER 9 with the total in Sunday's matchup between the A's and Angels. I really like the pitching matchup here with Ohtani going up against Fiers. Ohtani was impressive in the limited time we saw him as a starter back in 2018 and Fiers is one of the more underrated starters in the game. These two scored 10 runs in the opener, but that was only cause they went to extra innings (tied 3-3 after 9). They then combined for just 5 runs on Saturday, which is about what I expect here. Give me the UNDER 9!
|07-25-20||Braves v. Mets OVER 9||5-3||Loss||-105||8 h 4 m||Show|
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Over 9)
I'm not concerned with the lack of offense we saw in Friday's opener between these two teams. That had everything to do with the starting pitching matchup, as we had two of the games best starters on the mound in deGrom and Soroka. Most are aware of how strong this Atlanta offense can be, but I don't think the majority realize the potential this Mets offense has this year. Factor in the wind blowing out and the heat index in the low 90s and I think we are going to see a bit of an offensive explosion in this one. Give me the OVER 9!
|07-24-20||Diamondbacks v. Padres UNDER 8.5||2-7||Loss||-110||12 h 59 m||Show|
40* MLB OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Under 8.5)
I see a ton of value here with the total at 8.5 for tonight's NL West showdown between the Padres and Diamondbacks. Arizona will send out Madison Bumgarner, who I think is going to have a big year and get back to being one of the best pitchers in the game. On the flip side, San Diego gives the rock to Chris Paddack, who has had the Giants number in his brief career. Paddack has faced Arizona 3 times (all last year) and posted a 1.08 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in those 3 outings. All 3 of those starts saw a combined score of 5 or less. Give me the UNDER 8.5!
|03-09-20||Raptors v. Jazz UNDER 225||Top||101-92||Win||100||12 h 16 m||Show|
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 225)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Monday's NBA action that has the Raptors visiting the Jazz. I just don't see either team looking to push the pace all that much in this one. Toronto is playing their 5th straight on the road in about as bad a spot as you can get, playing in Utah on no rest after a game last night in Sacramento. As for the Jazz, they had Sunday off, but had to play back-to-back on the road Friday/Saturday to close out a 4-game east coast trip. Another thing here is Utah has won 5 straight and will be highly motivated for revenge from a 20-point loss at Toronto earlier this season, where they gave up 77 in the 1st half to the Raptors.
UNDER is 15-5 in Utah's last 20 home games when they are on a win streak of 4 or more and 6- 1 in their last 7 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take the UNDER!
|03-08-20||Spurs v. Cavs OVER 222||Top||129-132||Win||100||10 h 36 m||Show|
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 222)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 222 in Sunday's NBA action that has the Spurs hosting visiting the Cavs. We see totals in the 230's on the reg in the NBA now a days and I just feel with how bad these two are playing defensively this should be closer to 230 than 220. Cleveland has allowed 4 of their last 5 opponents to shoot 54% or better from the field. San Antonio has allowed each of their last 4 to shoot 47% or better, including 53% last time out at Brooklyn. Cavs give up 115 ppg at home and Spurs allow 117 ppg on the road. Give me the OVER 222!
|03-03-20||Wolves v. Pelicans OVER 246.5||139-134||Win||100||8 h 2 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 246.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 246.5. This might seem crazy, but I actually think there's value here. Minnesota is playing absolutely zero defense right now. They have allowed 126 or more in each of their last 4 road games, all of which saw a combined score of 244 or more, with 3 of those going for 250+. Pelicans are built for a shootout, as they are scoring 118.2 ppg and giving up 117.0 ppg in their last 5. I think both teams easily hit 120 with New Orleans going for 130+. Give me the OVER 246.5!
|03-02-20||Rockets v. Knicks OVER 230.5||Top||123-125||Win||100||8 h 44 m||Show|
50* NBA NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 230.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER in Monday's matchup that has the Rockets visiting the Knicks. These two teams just played on Feb. 24th and combined for 135 points in a 123-112 Rockets win. I think we are going to see even more offense in this one.
I'm pretty confident Westbrook and Harden will be motivated to show out at Madison Square Garden. They only get to play their once a season. Houston's small ball has them scoring a ton here lately. Only the Celtics have been able to keep them under 120 points since the break.
As for the Knicks offense, they have been shooting really well. New York has hit 50% from the field in 3 straight games. Coming off a big road game at Boston on Saturday and a huge home game against the Clippers looming on Thursday, plus having just beat the Knicks, I don't see Houston being overly invested on playing defense in this one. Give me the OVER 230.5!
|02-27-20||Ohio State v. Nebraska OVER 144.5||75-54||Loss||-109||10 h 52 m||Show|
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 144.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 144.5 between Nebraska and Ohio State. The Buckeyes put up 80 on the Cornhuskers at home earlier this season and with the free fall that Nebraska is on right now, I could see them topping that mark in this one. Cornhuskers are allowing 81.2 ppg on 47% shooting in their last 5. Last two at home they have allowed 86 to Michigan State and a staggering 81 to Wisconsin.
Other big key here is Ohio State's defense has really regressed over the season. Buckeyes are 11th in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency and 12th in effective field goal defense. Nebraska is due for a big offensive night and all we need is for them to flirt with 70 to cash. Give me the OVER 144.5!
|02-25-20||Pistons v. Nuggets OVER 214||98-115||Loss||-106||10 h 24 m||Show|
40* NBA LATE NIGHT TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Over 214)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 214 between the Nuggets and Pistons. I just think with the trade of Drummond Detroit has went into full on rebuild mode. The defense has not been good and they are going up against a Denver offense that just shot 59% while scoring 128 at home against the Wolves. That was the 4th time in 5 games the Nuggets shot 50% or better from the field. Pistons can score and should be able to hit at least 105. I think the total here should be closer to 225. Give me the OVER 214!
|02-25-20||Hornets v. Pacers OVER 210||Top||80-119||Loss||-101||9 h 30 m||Show|
50* NBA VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 210)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 210 between the Hornets and Pacers. I just think we are getting big time value here on the OVER due to how awful these two teams just played offensively in their last game. Charlotte scored just 86 at home to the Nets and Indiana managed just 81 on the road at Toronto. Both teams did allow 115+ in those losses. Pacers score 110 ppg at home and Hornets allow that same number on the season. I think we see Indiana get to 120 and that means we need a mere 91 from Charlotte to cash. Give me the OVER 210!
|02-25-20||DePaul v. Xavier UNDER 136.5||67-78||Loss||-109||9 h 59 m||Show|
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 136.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 136.5 between Xavier and DePaul. These two teams played once already and combined for just 126 points, staying UNDER the mark of 139. Given how much both offenses struggled to score, especially inside, I see no reason to not take UNDER at this price.
Also, Xavier is playing to a lot lower scoring games right now. Over the last month they have basically started 3 big men. That's bad for offense and great for defense. It also slows the game way down. Give me the UNDER 136.5!
|02-25-20||Iowa v. Michigan State OVER 151.5||70-78||Loss||-109||9 h 36 m||Show|
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 151.5)
I'll take my chances with the OVER 151.5 between Michigan State and Iowa. The Spartans have made a switch to a smaller lineup and the offense really responded well to the new look with 86 points on the road at Nebraska. I think there's a really good shot they put up at least 85 in this one. Iowa's defense is not good and it's really bad on the road.
The one thing with the small ball lineup for the Spartans is that is does make them vulnerable inside on defense and Iowa has an absolute star in Garza. I think all we need is for the Hawks to hit 70 points for an easy cash. Give me the OVER 151.5!
|02-21-20||Celtics v. Wolves OVER 226||Top||127-117||Win||100||8 h 33 m||Show|
50* NBA NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 226)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 226 in Friday's NBA clash that has Boston visiting Minnesota. I think we are getting some value here with the OVER due to a couple big names sitting this out. Kemba Walker won't play for Boston and Karl-Anthony Towns is out for the Wolves.
Celtics got more than enough offensive fire-power to score a bunch against this awful Minnesota defense. It's going to be a big struggle on that side of the ball for the Wolves with all the new pieces.
I like the offensive weapons a little more after the moves. Not having Towns is huge, but I also think him not playing really makes it hard for Boston to show up thinking they need to play hard defensively to win this game. Give me the OVER 226!
|02-21-20||Cavs v. Wizards OVER 236||113-108||Loss||-107||7 h 44 m||Show|
40* NBA OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 236)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 236 between Washington and Cleveland. No doubt this is a big number, but it's really not when you factor in the two teams that are playing. Wizards and Cavs are atrocious on the defensive end. Wizards combine their lack of defense with an uptempo offensive attack and I'm confident they control the tempo here on their home floor and they should be really looking to push it given the long layoff and fresh legs.
I also think Cavs are a better offensive team with the addition of Drummond and will be a little more explosive offensively now that head coach Beilein is gone. The players simply didn't like him or his ways of coaching. They are going to want to show out now that he's gone to make him look even worse. Give me the OVER 236!
|02-20-20||UCLA v. Utah UNDER 135||69-58||Win||100||11 h 41 m||Show|
40* NCAAB LATE NIGHT TOTAL SLAUGHTER (Under 135)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Thursday's Pac-12 clash between UCLA and Utah. Unless you stay up late or follow the Pac-12 real close, chances are you aren't aware of how much better the Bruins are playing down the stretch. Most expected a smoother transition under first year head coach Mick Cronin, but it just didn't happen.
Players have bought in. UCLA has won 7 of their last 9 and are quietly sitting just 1-game back of 1st place in the Pac-12. Their defense, as you would expect under Cronin, has gotten better and better. I think that's why there's so much value with the total here. UCLA has allowed under 60 points 5 times in their last 8 games. Utah only averages 63.6 ppg in Pac-12 play and a mere 58.8 ppg in their last 5. Give me the UNDER 135!
|02-18-20||Baylor v. Oklahoma UNDER 134||65-54||Win||100||9 h 38 m||Show|
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL SLAUGHTER (Under 134)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 134. These two teams played earlier this season and combined for just 118 points. Both teams shot poorly, but part of that for Baylor was they couldn't force turnovers. Oklahoma, who is really good at protecting the ball, only turned it over 8 times. Bears are also a team that likes to play slow, so if they aren't getting transition looks, they are eating up clock.
Oklahoma only lost by 4 in that first meeting, so you have to believe the will go with a similar game-plan and hope their defense, which has been much better at home, can make a few more stops. Scoring on Baylor's defense won't be easy. Bears don't need to force turnovers to keep an opposing team in check. Give me the UNDER 134!
|02-10-20||Baylor v. Texas UNDER 128.5||Top||52-45||Win||100||12 h 36 m||Show|
50* NCAAB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 128.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 128.5 between Baylor and Texas. These two teams already played once this season at Baylor and the Bears won that contest 59-44 for a combined total of just 103 points. I just don't think it's going to be a whole lot different in the rematch.
Note that Baylor has played two Big 12 teams twice so far this season and both times the second meeting was almost a mirror image of the first. Bears beat Iowa State 68-55 at home and then later won at ISU 67-53. They also beat Oklahoma State 75-68 on the road and then won 78-70 at home.
I just don't know how Texas is going to be able to score, especially if Kai Jones and Jase Febres (both questionable) can't go. Keep in mind Baylor plays at the slowest tempo in the Big 12 and the Longhorns are 7th out of 10 in tempo. Give me the UNDER 128.5!
|02-06-20||North Texas v. Middle Tennessee OVER 133||Top||75-70||Win||100||8 h 7 m||Show|
50* NCAAB C-USA TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 133)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 133 in tonight's C-USA matchup that has North Texas visiting Middle Tennessee. The Mean Green are the most efficient offense in C-USA with offensive efficiency rating of 115.0. The next best is Louisiana Tech at 108.8. They are shooting 56% on 2-pointers, 42% from deep and 79% from the free throw line. They have scored 70 or more in 6 of their last 8 and should easily hit that mark against the Blue Raiders, who have allowed 80 or more in 4 of their last 6.
As for Middle Tennessee's offense, they play at the 5th fastest tempo in the conference and are a much better 3-point shooting team than they are inside. Defending the 3-ball has been a struggle for North Texas, as they are 13th out of 14 in 3-pt % defense. Middle Tennessee is also 4th in free throw rate and Mean Green are 10th in defensive free throw rate. They just scored 83 at UTSA and are averaging 75.3 ppg at home. I could see both teams eclipsing 70 and all we need is for 67 each to cash a winner. Give me the OVER 133!
|02-04-20||Oklahoma v. Texas Tech UNDER 138||61-69||Win||100||9 h 12 m||Show|
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Under 138)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 138 between Texas Tech and Oklahoma. I think we are getting a great price on the total here because of how high scoring some of these last few games have been for the Red Raiders. Big part of that is their last 3 have come against Kentucky, West Virginia and Kansas. All of which rank in the Top 45 in offensive efficiency.
The other big key is Tech has lost 3 of 4 and I believe we can count on them really locking in defensively at home in this one to get back on track. Oklahoma's offense has really slowed down in Big 12 play and in their last two road games they managed just 53 points at K-STate and 57 at Baylor. The only time they have scored more than 62 on the road in Big 12 play is at ISU, who is arguably the worst defense in the conference. Give me the UNDER 138!
|02-04-20||Tennessee v. Alabama OVER 146.5||69-68||Loss||-108||7 h 29 m||Show|
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 146.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 146.5 between Alabama and Tennessee. The Crimson Tide are going to put up points, especially at home. Alabama has a tempo rating of 75.9 in SEC play and the next best is South Carolina at 73. There's been just one SEC game out of 8 that they have failed to score at least 76 points and the fewest they have scored at home in conference play is 77.
Thing is with the loss of Herb Jones the Tide are not nearly as strong defensively and simply must win shootouts. Tennessee is 3rd in the SEC in effective field goal percentage and come in having shot 48% from the field in their last 5. I'm confident the Vols can keep pace here and give us at least 70, which is all we should need to cash a winner. Give me the OVER 146.5.
|02-03-20||Texas v. Kansas OVER 131.5||58-69||Loss||-100||9 h 56 m||Show|
40* NCAAB OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 131.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 131.5 in Monday's Big 12 showdown between Texas and Kansas. These two played to a combined score of just 123 a couple weeks ago and the total for that was 129. I think it says a lot that that game went under and yet we are seeing the total even higher in the rematch.
I couldn't agree more. Kansas is a much better offensive team at home and while Texas' offense struggles on the road, I don't think they can do much worse than scoring 57 points on 40% shooting. Also, both teams shot awful from deep in that first meeting, going a combined 8 for 30 (26%). Considering both teams are shooting 35% from deep on the season, we should see a nice up tick in scoring from a few more 3's made. On top of that, KU was just 67% from the free throw line and Texas was 56%. Give me the OVER 131.5!