|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|11-20-20||Purdue v. Minnesota OVER 59.5||Top||31-34||Win||100||102 h 41 m||Show|
50* PURDUE/MINNESOTA NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 59.5)
We will take our chances here with Minnesota and Purdue combining for at least 60 points in Friday's Big Ten action. While each of the last two games for the Gophers went UNDER, one was a result of their opponent not being able to score (Illinois) and last week it was Iowa's defense taking away the running game, as Minnesota managed just 7 points after scoring 40+ in each of their previous two games.
The Gophers offense is much better when they run the ball, but note that last year they scored 38 on Purdue with just 92 rushing yards, as Tanner Morgan threw for 396 yards and 4 scores. Boilermakers had 31 points of their own, as the two combined for 69 points.
OVER is also 37-17 in the Gophers last 54 at home off a game where they failed to cover and a dominant 22-8 in their last 30 as a home dog of 7 or less. Give me the OVER 59.5!
|11-18-20||Northern Illinois v. Ball State UNDER 62||Top||25-31||Win||100||28 h 5 m||Show|
50* N ILLINOIS/BALL ST *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Under 62)
I know these are two defenses that have struggled to keep points off the scoreboard. Northern Illinois is giving up 44.4 ppg and Ball State is allowing 34.5 ppg. I just think the numbers are a bit inflated for Northern Illinois.
The Huskies combined for 79 points in their opener against Buffalo, losing 49-30. However, the Bulls scored 3 defensive touchdowns. A game that was just 21-16 at the half turned into 49-16 in less than 20 minutes on the clock.
In last week's game against Central Michigan, it was 26-0 going into the 4th quarter before the two teams put up 24 to end up at 50.
Given how much Northern Illinois struggles to score, I just don't see these two teams getting to 63 unless there's a bunch of crazy scores.
Also, both of these teams like to run the ball and both offenses might be even more inclined to run in this game. There's expected to be crosswinds approaching 20 mph. This should help limit the possessions with fewer big plays thru the air. Give me the UNDER 62!
|11-17-20||Buffalo v. Bowling Green OVER 57.5||42-17||Win||100||9 h 12 m||Show|
40* BUFFALO/BOWLING GREEN NCAAF STEAMROLLER (OVER 57.5)
Buffalo could hit this total on their own. We did just see Bowling Green give up 62 last week to Kent State. I don't know if they will hit the 60-point mark, but I do see them scoring at the minimum of 40.
Buffalo won't even need to throw it to score 40. In 2 games, Bowling Green has allowed 605 rushing yards. They gave up 310 to Toledo and 295 to Kent State. They are allowing 5.5 yards/carry and will be facing a Bulls offense that is putting up 194 ypg and 5 yards/carry.
Key here is that I think the Falcons can put up some points. I think Buffalo's defense is pretty good, but defense is all about effort and I just wonder if they will bring it for this game. They laid it all on the line last week against the defending MAC champ in Miami (OH) and have a monster game on deck next week against Kent State.
I think we can get a big play or two early from BG to get some points on the board for them and then add a few more in garbage time to push this well past the number. Give me the OVER 57.5
|11-13-20||Iowa v. Minnesota OVER 58||Top||35-7||Loss||-106||79 h 2 m||Show|
50* IOWA/MINNESOTA NCAAF *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 58)
I firmly believe that Minnesota is going to be a great OVER team this year. I took the OVER 65 in their game last week at Illinois and it didn't cash, but they did get to 55 points and it was against arguably the worst offense in the Big Ten.
Gophers did their part scoring 41 points on 541 total yards of offense. Minnesota is now averaging 36.3 ppg, 444 ypg and 6.3 yards/play. This is no shocker. This team averaged 34.1 ppg last year and returned 9 starters.
It's the defense where they lost a bunch of talent and it showed in their first two games, as they gave up 49 to Michigan at home and 45 to Maryland on the road. I don't think it magically got better against Illinois. The Illini are just that bad offensively and they were missing some key guys.
Iowa's offense put up 49 last week, but did only score 20 in their first two games against Purdue and Northwestern. I just think the Hawkeyes are going to be able to do as they please against Minnesota. Iowa's o-line should have their way and that's going to lead to a lot of big runs and plays down the field.
As for the Hawkeyes defense. It's your typical Kirk Ferentz defense, but I don't think it's quite as good as we have seen the last couple of years. They should also open up/relax a little if the offense is able to move the ball at will. Give me the OVER 58!
|11-09-20||Patriots v. Jets UNDER 41.5||30-27||Loss||-107||11 h 39 m||Show|
40* PATRIOTS/JETS MNF VEGAS INSIDER (Under 41.5)
This game has a defensive battle written all over it, there's just not a lot to get excited about with either offense in this game.
Cam Newton has been a massive disappointment since returning from Covid. In 3 starts his highest passing output is 174 yards. He has not thrown a single TD pass and has thrown 5 interceptions. He's also been sacked 7 times.
I expect Belichick to come into this game looking to establish the run. He knows his defense will be able to slow down that awful Jets offense. Thing is, Jets have a decent run defense and should get a boost playing at home on MNF against a team you hate to the core. As long as the offense doesn't turn it over a bunch, I think that NY defense will hold its own.
The Jets haven't scored more than 10 points in 4 straight games. It hasn't been much better for New England, which had scored 12 or fewer in 3 straight before scoring a mere 21 last week at Buffalo. It wouldn't surprise me at all if both teams failed to score 20. Give me the UNDER 41.5!
|11-07-20||Clemson v. Notre Dame UNDER 52||40-47||Loss||-109||99 h 58 m||Show|
40* CLEMSON/NOTRE DAME NCAAF SHARP STAKE (UNDER 52)
I contemplated taking Notre Dame and the points in this one, but I just don't trust the Irish enough in big games to pull the trigger. With that said, I was going to be on the UNDER either way here, as I think this game has a defensive battle written all over it.
A lot of people might not see it that way after Clemson just gave up 28 points in a near upset loss at home against BC. Thing is the Eagles have a special talent at quarterback in Phil Jurkovec. Ironically enough, Jurkovec transfer to BC from ND. I think he's better than Ian Book.
I also think the attention and focus will be at a much different level for Clemson's defense against Notre Dame than it was against Boston College. Keep in mind the defense picked up it's game in the 2nd half against the Eagles, as BC was shutout in the 2nd half.
Not only do I think it will be tough for Notre Dame to score, but without Trevor Lawrence this Clemson offense is not the same. I know D.J. Uiagalelei played well against BC and is highly touted, but this is not an easy spot for a true freshman on the road against a Notre Dame defense that is light years ahead of what he just faced in BC. Give me the UNDER 52!
|11-07-20||Baylor v. Iowa State UNDER 51.5||31-38||Loss||-110||122 h 27 m||Show|
40* BAYLOR/IOWA ST NCAAF SLAUGHTER (Under 51.5)
I really like the UNDER in this one. I think Baylor is an ideal UNDER team. The Bears have a decent defense and an offense that struggles to put up points. If you take away the 47 points (had two non-offensive TDs) against Kansas in their opener, Baylor is averaging just 20.0 ppg in their 3 other conference games.
As bad as 20.0 ppg looks, it could easily be worse. They had just 7 points before scoring in the final minutes of regulation against West Virginia. Against Texas they trailed 27-3 going into the 4th and added two garbage TD's for a final of just 27-16. Last week against TCU they trailed 33-7 with less than 5 minutes to play in the 3rd before scoring 16 meaningless points to lose 33-23.
Iowa State has a better defense than all 3 of those teams and this Cyclones team can't afford to overlook the Bears, as they need to win out to ensure a spot in the Big 12 title game. A shutout is not out of the question, but I'm confident ISU can hold Baylor to 17 or less.
Let's just say they some how happen to get to 17, Cyclones would need to score 35 for us to lose. Possible, but like I said, Baylor's got a decent defense. Mother nature may also help, as winds are expected be approaching 20 mph. Give me the UNDER 51.5!
|11-07-20||Minnesota v. Illinois OVER 60.5||41-14||Loss||-110||119 h 9 m||Show|
40* MINNESOTA/ILLINOIS NCAAF STEAMROLLER (OVER 60.5)
Unless the books put this total north of 70, there's a good chance I was going to be on the OVER. In fact, I'll probably be on the OVER in Minnesota games quite a bit this year.
There were concerns that the Gophers defense would take a step back with just 4 starters returning from last year's team. They appear to have not just taken a step back, but fallen off a cliff.
I think their defense got a pass in their opener when they gave up 49 points and 478 yards because their opponent was Michigan. Then they allowed 45 points and 675 yards to Maryland, as the Terps put up 281 on the ground and 394 thru the air.
Note that's the same Maryland offense that could only must 3 points and 207 yards in their opener against Northwestern.
I know Illinois' offense isn't great and starting QB Brandon Peters is not going to play, but i'm confident the Illini will be able to move the ball against this Gophers defense. Backup quarterback Coran Taylor had 273 yards and 2 scores in place of Peters in their last game against Purdue, so I'm not so sure the drop off is significant, if at all.
On the flip side of this, Minnesota's got some talent on offense and should be able to score 30+ with relative ease against this Illinois defense. Give me the OVER 60.5!
|11-07-20||West Virginia v. Texas OVER 54||13-17||Loss||-111||21 h 10 m||Show|
40* W VIRGINIA/TEXAS NCAAF MASSACRE (Over 54)
I like the value here with the OVER 54 between Texas and West Virginia. The Longhorns have proven to be an OVER team, as 5 of their 6 games have gone OVER the mark. The only exception coming against Baylor, who has one of the worst offenses of any Power 5 program.
West Virginia is not an offensive juggernaut, but are scoring a very respectable 33.0 ppg and averaging 465 yards/game. They got one of the better QBs no one is talking about in Jarret Doege. He's completing 64% of his attempts with 11-3 TD-INT ratio. I don't see Texas' defense slowing them down.
The Mountaineers defense has been great early and were sharp last week in a blowout win over K-State, but I don't see them slowing down this high-powered Texas offense on the road. W Virginia is giving up just 19.8 ppg, but have played the 3 worst offenses in the conference in Baylor, Kansas and K-State.
I know they didn't have a ton of yards, but you can't ignore the 41-pints Texas just put up against an even strong defense in Oklahoma State. Give me the OVER 54!
|11-01-20||49ers v. Seahawks OVER 54||27-37||Win||100||76 h 33 m||Show|
40* 49ERS/SEAHAWKS NFL DESTROYER (OVER 54)
It's hard to not play the OVER at less than 55 with Seattle. I know this is a division game, but this Seahawks defense is really bad. They are giving up 479.2 yards/game. That's dead last in the NFL. The next worst is the Jaguars at 424.4 ypg.
If it wasn't for the offense being as good as they are, I think this Seattle team would be viewed very differently. Even with how good the offense is, the Seahawks should have lost to the Vikings at home and easily could have lost to the Pats, Cowboys and Vikings.
Basically, the Seahawks have to score 30 every game, because that's what their defense allows. I don't see this game against the 49ers being any different. What Kyle Shanahan is doing with what he has to work with on offense is something special. The guy is just a step ahead of most other OCs.
As for the 49ers defense, I think they have looked great in their last two games. I also think they played a Pats offense that has no clue what they are doing right now and a very overrated Rams offense. Their other 4 opponents since Week 1 when they lost all those guys are the Dolphins, Eagles, Giants and Jets.
They just haven't been up against anything like Russell Wilson and this Seattle offense. Ryan Fitzpatrick torched this 49ers defense for 350 yards and 3 scores. I see Wilson putting up similar numbers. Give me the OVER 54!
|10-31-20||Mississippi State v. Alabama UNDER 64.5||0-41||Win||100||124 h 46 m||Show|
40* MISS ST/ALABAMA NCAAF KNOCKOUT (Under 64.5)
I don't play a ton of UNDERS in college football, but I really like this one between Mississippi State and Alabama. This Bulldogs offense is a joke. No clue why LSU didn't do it, but teams are simply rushing 3 and playing 8 in coverage against the Bulldogs. With an offensive line that can't block 3, there's nothing Mississippi State can do. They have scored 30 total points in their 3 games since putting up 44 in the opener against LSU.
It's not going to get any better against Alabama's defense. It wouldn't shock me at all if Mississippi State failed to score.
On the flip side of this, Mississippi State has a defense that has been playing extremely well. Bulldogs are only giving up 26.8 ppg and 296 ypg. They are allowing just 2.9 yards/carry and 4.6 yards/play.
I know that means nothing against Alabama, but this is now a Crimson Tide offense that no longer has one of their best receivers in Jaylen Waddle.
Think about it, Alabama can win 50-14 and that's not enough. I already said I don't think Mississippi State is getting to 14. I also don't think Alabama gets to 50. Give me the UNDER 64.5!
|10-31-20||Virginia Tech v. Louisville OVER 66||42-35||Win||100||97 h 33 m||Show|
40* VA TECH/LOUISVILLE NCAAF MASSACRE (Over 66)
I don't see a whole lot of defense being played in this one, as both of these offenses should have their way.
Prior to scoring just 16-points at Wake Forest last week, Va Tech had scored 38 or more in each of their first 4 with 3 going for 40 or more. They still had nearly 450 total yards in that game. They had 210 rushing yards, which was their lowest output all year. They are averaging 292 rushing yards/game and 6.5 yards/carry.
Louisville's defense has played better the last two games, but in both of those games they gave up over 230 rushing yards. Also two weeks ago the game against Notre Dame they were aided big time by strong winds and FSU isn't that great and were primed for a letdown off that big win over UNC. This is still the same defense that gave up 46 to Georgia Tech and 47 to Miami.
As for Virginia Tech's defense, they are giving up 441 yards/game and 6.1 yards/play. I know they have got some guys back that were out with Covid, but it's still not a great unit. Louisville's got a big time talent at QB in Cunningham and a couple of really good skill players. They also just had their best offensive game of the year last week, so they are trending in the right direction. Give me the OVER 66!
|10-31-20||Texas v. Oklahoma State OVER 57.5||41-34||Win||100||121 h 57 m||Show|
40* TEXAS/OKLAHOMA ST NCAAF STEAMROLLER (OVER 57.5)
I think there's a good chance we see 60 or more points in this one. Oklahoma State's offensive numbers are greatly skewed because of how much time starting QB Spencer Sanders has missed. He only played a few snaps in the opener against Tulsa and just returned last week against ISU.
While he threw 2 picks, he did complete 20 of 29 attempts for 295 and that's a really good Cyclones defense. Texas does not have a good defense. The Longhorns are giving up 32.2 ppg and that's with them only giving up 3 to UTEP and 16 last week to an awful Baylor offense. They allowed 56 at Texas Tech, 33 at home to TCU and 53 to Oklahoma. It would be a shock here if Texas didn't give up at least 30.
I also think there's a good chance Texas can score 30 or more. Oklahoma State's defense is only giving up 12.0 ppg, which is great, but a lot of that is schedule. Their first 4 were against Tulsa, W Virginia, Kansas and ISU. By far the best offense they faced so far is the Cyclones and ISU had over 100 yards more than what OK-State had been allowing. Now they face an even better Texas offense. Give me the OVER 57.5!
|10-31-20||LSU v. Auburn OVER 64.5||11-48||Loss||-109||96 h 33 m||Show|
40* LSU/AUBURN NCAAF CASH COW (Over 64.5)
I just feel that LSU is one of the best OVER teams in the country. I think all the guys LSU lost on offense, if you had to guess coming into the year if it would be the offense or defense that was holding this team back, everyone would have said the offense.
That's just not the case. LSU is averaging 42.0 ppg, 486 yards/game and averaging 6.6 yards/play. It's no where close to as good as last year with Burrow, but it's still one of the best units in the country.
They just scored 52 against South Carolina last week without their starting quarterback Myles Brennan. He's unlikely to play, but no big deal. TJ Finley completed 17 of 21 attempts for 265 yards and 2 scores (12.6 avg) against the Gamecocks.
Key here is LSU has to score a bunch, because their defense isn't very good. Not a real shocker given that Bo Pelini is their defensive coordinator. Just look at what they gave up to Mississippi State and what that Bulldogs offense has done in their 3 games since.
Even an average Auburn offense is going to find success against this defense, especially on their home turf. I think both teams easily hit the 30-point mark in this one. Give me the OVER 64.5!
|10-25-20||Packers v. Texans OVER 56.5||35-20||Loss||-115||87 h 50 m||Show|
40* PACKERS/TEXANS NFL STEAMROLLER (OVER 56.5)
I think the best game in terms of entertainment is going to be the showdown between Aaron Rodgers and the Packers vs Deshaun Watson and the Texans. I see both quarterbacks putting on a show and for these two teams to fly past the total here of 56.5.
Rodgers and the Packers got embarrassed last week by Tampa Bay's defense. Whenever a elite QB like Rodgers has an awful performance, they almost always find a way to not just play well, but play great in their next game. This Texans defense is one that GB can expose.
While I expect the offense to bounce back, I don't have the same confidence with the Green Bay defense. There's still a lot of holes on that side of the ball. I expect a tough day against a surging Texans' offense. Ever since O'Brien was fired Watson and the passing game have come to life. He's getting a chance to do more and that's how it should have been. O'Brien was more about running his offense than implementing an offense to fit his talent. Give me the OVER 56.5!
|10-25-20||Cowboys v. Washington Football Team UNDER 46.5||3-25||Win||100||87 h 49 m||Show|
40* COWBOYS/REDSKINS NFL SLAUGHTER (UNDER 46.5)
After watching Andy Dalton and that Cowboys offense struggle to get anything going against a bad Cardinals defense, I got no choice but to play the UNDER at this price, especially against an anemic Redskins offense. Now I will say I would lean Washington to win the game, but I just don't like playing a game with two bad teams.
I was one that thought Dallas' offense was going to be okay with Dalton. I just didn't realize it was as bad as it is on the offensive line. That was a below-average defensive front they just faced in the Cardinals, who were without their stud in Chandler Jones.
The Redskins are not below-average up front on defense. In fact, I think the defensive line is the best position group on the team, led by star rookie Chase Young. I just don't see Dalton and that Cowboys offense doing much.
Redskins have their own limitations on offense. I know they will likely move the ball against this Cowboys defense, but I don't think they are going to go pass-happy with a lead. Rivera will milk that clock and secure a much-needed win for his team. Play the UNDER 46.5!
|10-24-20||Nebraska v. Ohio State OVER 67.5||17-52||Win||100||47 h 25 m||Show|
40* NEBRASKA/OHIO ST NCAAF KNOCKOUT (Over 67.5)
I think we are going to see a ton of points on the scoreboard in the Big Ten opener between Nebraska and Ohio State. Ohio State score 46.9 ppg in 2019 and are loaded once again with junior quarterback Justin Fields back. They put up 48 points and 580 yards last year on Nebraska and should have similar success against a Cornhuskers defense that only brings back 5 starters (have to replace all 3 defensive linemen and 5 total in the front 7.
The key here for me is I think Nebraska is going to be able to score some points. They got 10 starters back on offense with an experienced junior QB in Adrian Martinez (21 starts). Ohio State is going to have a good defense, but I don't think it will be as good as last year when they gave up just 13.7 ppg. They lost a lot from that side of the ball, including the best defensive player in college in Chase Young.
Two other factors here that I think help push this over. First, I believe Ohio State has a ton of incentive here to run up the score. They need style points to try and make up for the time missed with the Big Ten starting so late. The other is the lack of fans, which definitely makes matters a lot easier on that Nebraska offense. Play the OVER 67.5!
|10-18-20||Packers v. Bucs OVER 54.5||10-38||Loss||-110||48 h 31 m||Show|
40* PACKERS/BUCS NFL STEAMROLLER (Over 54.5)
I don't know who is going to win this game. Green Bay has looked like the better team to this point, but I want nothing to do with betting against Tom Brady after a game where he's getting made fun of cause he didn't know what down it was.
I believe the value here is with the OVER at 54.5. I really think both of these quarterbacks are going to put on a show and we could see both teams score in the 30s. This is not Aaron Rodgers of the last few years. This is MVP Rodgers we are seeing in 2020. Green Bay has carved up every team they have faced. Teddy Bridgewater went 33 of 42 for 340 against this defense earlier this season and rookie Justin Herbert was 20 of 25 for 278. Rodgers will produce.
Brady and the Bucs offense was starting to get something figured out before that dud against the Bears on Thursday Night Football. I just think TB on short rest with the travel really helped out Chicago in that game. Green Bay's defense has also not been very good. It's just not getting any attention because of how good the offense has been. Packers are giving up 4.8 yards/carry (28th), while opposing QBs are completing 72.2% of their attempts with 7.4 yards/pass attempt. Give me the OVER 54.5!
|10-17-20||North Carolina v. Florida State OVER 63.5||28-31||Loss||-110||54 h 17 m||Show|
40* N CAROLINA/FLORIDA ST NCAAF STEAMROLLER (Over 63.5)
I just don't feel the books have set the total anywhere close to enough for Saturday's ACC matchup between No. 5 North Carolina and Florida State.
After a bit of a sluggish start to the 2020 season, we got a real good glimpse of just how good this Tar Heels offense can be in last week's win over then No. 19 Virginia Tech. UNC put up 56 points with 656 yards of total offense. They did as they pleased with Sam Howell throwing for 257 yards and 3 scores and the Tar Heels rushing for 399 yards and 5 scores.
That offense will now be up against a Florida State defense that has struggled against quality teams. The Seminoles allowed 52 points to Miami and 42 to Notre Dame. Both the Hurricanes and Irish had over 500 yards of total offense.
The key here is that we should see FSU's offense be able to score their fair share in this one. While UNC's offense was great in their win over the Hokies. They also gave up 45 points and 495 yards to Va Tech. Would have been a lot more had they started Hendon Hooker instead of sitting him the whole 1st half.
FSU's offense has also looked much better under Jordan Travis. He's really been able to stretch the field, as he's averaging 9.7 yards/completion. A major upgrade over what they were getting at the position. He can also make defenses pay with his legs. Hes rushed it 43 times for 235 yards and 2 scores. Give me the OVER 63.5.
|10-11-20||Cardinals v. Jets OVER 47||30-10||Loss||-115||146 h 15 m||Show|
40* CARDS/JETS NFL *STEAMROLLER* Over 47
I see a ton of value with a total less than 50 in Sunday's matchup between the Jets and Cardinals. One of the big reasons the total is so low, is the Jets offense has really struggled to score and are now without starting Darnold.
There's a lot worse options than veteran Joe Flacco and I just don't know that there's a massive drop off in the offensive potential with him under center. I also think this Arizona defense is a lot worse than people realize. Cardinals are only giving up 23.0 ppg, but are allowing 5.9 yards/play, giving up 4.5 yards/carry and 7.1 yards/pass attempt.
Most would say the Jets defense is awful and it has been. What might surprise you is how similar the Cardinals defense has been outside of the points allowed. Jets give up 32.8 ppg but only 5.8 yards/play, 4.2 yards/carry and 7.4 yards/pass attempts.
If the Jets can just get into the 20's here this thing should fly over. Kyler Murray and that Cardinals offense should score early and often. Give me the OVER 47!
|10-11-20||Panthers v. Falcons OVER 53||23-16||Loss||-110||119 h 19 m||Show|
40* PANTHERS/FALCONS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (OVER 53)
These two teams should have no problem eclipsing this total. Both of these teams can get after you offensively and neither has a defense that is all that imposing. The loss of Christian McCaffrey has not slowed down this Panthers team.
Carolina just racked up 444 yards in a 31-21 win over the Cardinals. Teddy Bridgewater thew for 276 yards and 2 scores, while the Panthers rushed for 168 yards on 35 attempts (4.8 yards/carry).
I really think we are seeing the impact Joe Brady (new offensive coordinator) is having with this team. Bridgewater is also one of the more underrated quarterbacks out there.
No reason to think that Carolina's offense won't be able to move the ball against this Atlanta defense. Falcons are 31st (ahead of only Seattle), giving up 448.3 ypg. Most of those coming via big pass plays, as they are 31st against the pass, allowing 341.5 ypg.
Sure Atlanta's defense has had a difficult task facing Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers in 3 of their first 4, but they also gave up 30 points to the Bears, allowing Foles to throw three 4th quarter touchdowns.
As far as the Falcons offense, we know they are going to put up points with Matt Ryan and that passing attack. Give me the OVER 53!
|10-11-20||Raiders v. Chiefs OVER 56.5||Top||40-32||Win||100||119 h 15 m||Show|
50* RAIDERS/CHIEFS AFC WEST PLAY OF THE MONTH (Over 56.5)
I know the history of these two teams has seen a lot of UNDERS, but I absolutely love the OVER in this matchup. Patrick Mahomes and that Kansas City offense really struggled last week against the Patriots. They played about as poorly as we have seen them since Mahomes became the starter.
The special players like Mahomes, always seem to bounce back from a bad game with one of their best. A motivated Mahomes should spell disaster for this Raiders defense. Oakland's giving up 30 ppg. They rank in the bottom half of the league against both the run and the pass. Last year Mahomes scored 28 in a quarter against this defense in the first matchup and KC put up 40 in the next meeting.
Key here is I expect Oakland to make a game of it. There's no question this Chiefs defense is better than they get credit for, but I just wonder if they aren't primed for a bit of a letdown here. They were clearly excited to play Week 1 against the Texans, then they had to carry them in a win at LA, after that it was Lamar and the Ravens and Belichick and the Pats.
Even though the Raiders are a big rival, it's not as big when the teams aren't on the same level in talent. Not to mention they got a HUGE game on deck at Buffalo next week. Bills are clearly one of the top teams in the AFC and only one team gets that first round bye this year. That's a massive tie-breaker game for the No. 1 seed. Give me the OVER 57!
|10-08-20||Bucs v. Bears OVER 44||19-20||Loss||-110||76 h 14 m||Show|
40* BUCCANEERS/BEARS NFL *VEGAS INSIDER (Over 44)
I really like the OVER 44 between the Bears/Bucs on Thursday Night Football. It's almost to the point you just got to take the OVER with a total this low. Going into Monday Night Football in Week 4, out of 14 games, 11 had 45 or more points with 8 of those going for 50+.
That includes a shootout last Thursday between two awful offensive teams, as the Broncos and Jets combined for 65. That game really speaks to just how hard it is on these defenses to play well in these Thursday games on short rest. You also have scoring up from a lack of fans and the refs not calling offensive holding near as much.
The big reason this total is so low, is because of how bad the Bears looked in Nick Foles first start. Chicago got next to nothing going in a home loss to the Colts, scoring just 11 points on 269 total yards (only had 3 points with less than 2 minutes to play in the 4th).
Thing is that Indy defense is extremely difficult to pass on. In fact, the Colts lead the NFL in pass defense, giving up just 159.3 ypg. The Bucs defense is more geared toward stopping the run. I think Foles and that offense can provide enough spark in this one to push us past.
As for Tampa Bay's offense, they are getting better and better as the season goes on. Tom Brady has not regressed like so many thought he would leaving NE. He threw 5 TDs in last week's come from behind win over the Chargers. He's going to want to play well in this one (prime time and rematch with Foles) and I expect him to do just that. Give me the OVER 44!
|10-05-20||Patriots v. Chiefs OVER 49||Top||10-26||Loss||-110||10 h 49 m||Show|
50* PATS/CHIEFS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 49)
I was on the OVER in this game before it got postponed and moved to tonight. I still think it's the play. Yes, I know Cam Newton isn't playing for the Patriots and he's been great in the first 3 games. I just don't think it's going to impact the scoring as much as some might think.
In fact, it could be a positive. With Cam there's a lot more QB runs, which would have allowed NE to try to eat up more clock and limit the number of times Mahomes got the ball. I also think this Chiefs defense is built for guys like Cam and Lamar. They can really make life miserable for a QB that wants to use his legs and really isn't a precision passer.
All indications are that Hoyer will be the starter over Stidham. I like that, but still would like the over if they switched last second.
As for the Chiefs, I think we finally saw their offense resemble what we thought it should look like in last week's complete beatdown against the Ravens. They put up 34 points on a great Baltimore defense and left plenty of points out there. Note Baltimore has allowed 39 points in their 3 other games.
Belichick is a great defensive mind, but Mahomes has now seen this NE defense enough to know what to expect. Thing is Pats can get away with just his coaching against most teams, but the overall talent level is not great on that side of the ball. We saw Russell Wilson go 21 of 28 for 288 and 5 TDs against this defense a couple weeks ago. Mahomes might throw for 5 TDs, but should put up at least similar numbers. Give me the OVER 49!
|10-04-20||Jaguars v. Bengals OVER 48.5||25-33||Win||100||100 h 43 m||Show|
40* JAGUARS/BENGALS NFL NO-BRAINER (OVER 48.5)
I’m expecting a lot of offensive fireworks on both sides of the ball, as we have two talented young signal callers facing off in Joe Burrow and Gardner Minshew.
Let’s start off talking about Burrow and the Bengals offense. Cincinnati is not holding back with their rookie quarterback. Burrow’s 141 pass attempts are 2nd only to the Cowboys Dak Prescott.
He’s the 12 ranked starting QB according to PFF (Pro Football Focus). What’s impressive with Burrow is he’s producing despite being under constant pressure. One thing to note on that is that the 3 teams he’s faced, Chargers, Browns and Eagles all have a ton of talent up front on the defensive line.
The Jaguars got a decent defensive end in Josh Allen, but the rest of that unit up front is trash. Jacksonville as a team has just 2 sacks in their first 3 games. They only could manage 1 against a Dolphins offensive line that is every bit as bad as what Cincinnati has. Not only will this help Burrow and give him more time for big plays down the field, it will also give the Bengals a more balanced attack with the run game, which should help sustain drives.
As for Minshew and the Jaguars offense, they put up 27 in Week 1 against a great Colts defense and then 30 on the road against the Titans. They did struggle in their last game, scoring just 13 points on Thursday Night Football against the Dolphins. Big thing to note with that game is that Minshew was without his top target in D.J. Chark. While he’s only practicing in a limited role, everything I’ve read is that he’s going to be good to go on Sunday.
The Bengals rank 14th in scoring defense at 24.7 ppg, but are way back at 24th in total defense, giving up 392.3 ypg. Thing is they held the Chargers to just 13 points, but that was when LA was still handicapping themselves with Tyrod Taylor at QB. They also just held the Eagles to 23, but Carson Wentz has been awful. Wentz is the 33rd ranked QB out of 35 in PFF.
The only decent offense they faced was the Browns and Cleveland is far from an offensive juggernaut. Browns had 35 points and 434 yards against that defense. Even if the Bengals get back All-Pro defensive tackle Geno Atkins, the rest of that Front 7 is garbage.
I think these two will have no problem eclipsing the 50 point mark. Not only will I be betting the OVER 48.5, but I’ve also got action on the OVER 23.5 for the 1st half. Give me the OVER 48.5!
|10-03-20||South Carolina v. Florida OVER 56.5||24-38||Win||100||94 h 35 m||Show|
40* S CAROLINA/FLORIDA NCAAF STEAMROLLER (Over 56.5)
I don't think the books have set the total anywhere close to enough for Saturday's SEC East showdown between Florida and South Carolina. The Gators flashed some serious potential last year when Kyle Trask took over as their starting QB midway through the season.
That experience in 2019 looks to be paying off, as Florida's offense couldn't have looked much better in their first game. Gators racked up 642 yards on their way to hanging 51 on the road against Ole Miss. Trask was a big part of that, as he went 30 of 42 for 416 yards and 6 scores.
The Gamecocks just gave up 31 to Tennessee at home in their opener and I just don't see them being able to contain this Gators attack on the road.
Key here is that while Florida figures to go up and down the field on offense, the Gamecocks should be able to have their own success moving the ball. While the offense was great against the Rebels, Florida's defense was torched for 613 yards and 29 first downs. They gave up 170 on the ground and 443 thru the air. Last year these combined for 65 in a 38-27 Florida win and I think we could see a similar, if not higher scoring, game this time around. Give me the OVER 56.5!
|09-27-20||Panthers v. Chargers OVER 43.5||21-16||Loss||-110||47 h 3 m||Show|
40* PANTHERS/CHARGERS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (OVER 43.5)
I see some decent value here with the low total set for this game. I think the assumption here is that the Panthers won't be able to move the ball without Christian McCaffrey. I don't think that's going to be the case. Despite only scoring 17 points in their WK 2 loss to the Bucs, they an impressive 427 total yards (outgained TB by almost 100 yards).
McCaffrey only had 59 rushing yards and 29 receiving yards against the Bucs. Teddy Bridgewater went 33 of 42 for 367 yards. DJ Moore had 8 catches for 120, Robby Anderson had 9 for 109 and Mike Davis caught 8 for 74.
As for the Chargers, I didn't make this a play until it was clear that rookie Justin Herbert was going to start over Tyrod Taylor. Herbert made big throw after big throw against the defending champs and did so not even knowing he was going to start until right before the game.
Carolina's defense is one of the worst in the league. I think Herbert and the Chargers are going to score at will, which will keep Bridgewater and the Panthers in a pass-heavy attack. Give me the OVER 43.5!
|09-24-20||Dolphins v. Jaguars OVER 47.5||Top||31-13||Loss||-110||54 h 42 m||Show|
50* DOLPHINS/JAGUARS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 47.5)
I don't want anything to do with the side in this game. I know we didn't get the best number, but I still love the OVER 47.5. I'm a big OVER guy in these Thursday games on short rest, especially early in the season. Add in how much more scoring we are getting in 2020 because of the shorten offseason and no fans and these two should hit 50 with ease.
Keep in mind everyone was calling for the UNDER last Thursday between the Browns and Bengals and that thing went flying past the total. As bad as these teams are, Fitzpatrick and Minshew are two guys that can sling it. They will both be up against an awful pass defense. Give me the OVER 47.5!
|09-20-20||Patriots v. Seahawks OVER 44.5||Top||30-35||Win||100||51 h 56 m||Show|
50* PATRIOTS/SEAHAWKS *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 44.5)
I think we are getting some exceptional value here with the total in this one. I got nothing but respect for Bill Belichick and his ability to coach. He's going to get the most out of what he can. It's why one of my biggest plays in Week 1 was on the Pats -6.5 at Miami.
I'm not saying Russell Wilson is going to shred this NE defense, but I do think Seattle will be able to move the chains early and often. I know Atlanta is not a top tier defensive team, but putting up 38 on the road in Week 1 against a team like that is saying something.
The other big thing that I think might be getting overlooked is we saw Seattle throw the ball a lot more on early downs. Something so many have been begging them to do for years. It puts the ball in Wilson's hands more and that's huge. I don't think they do that in Week 1 and just go back to pounding the rock in Week 2.
On the flip side of all this is Cam Newton. Everything so far has been positive with Newton and I thought he played really well in Week 1. He was an efficient 15 of 19 passing (no interceptions). He also showed he's willing to run (75 yards on 15 attempts), which is how he won the MVP a few years ago.
Seattle's defense isn't what it once was. They gave up over 500 yards to the Falcons in Week 1. Atlanta had 3 different players catch 9 passes and all 3 had over 110 yards. I think Newton shows out in Prime Time and this thing turns into a bit of a shootout. Give me the OVER 44.5!
|09-20-20||Falcons v. Cowboys OVER 52.5||39-40||Win||100||98 h 58 m||Show|
40* FALCONS/COWBOYS NFL SHARP STAKE (OVER 52.5)
I'm a little bit surprised this number isn't higher. These are two explosive offenses that want to air it out to all their big playmakers at receiver. Dallas has a great back in Zeke, but Dak is not shy about letting it fly.
I know the Cowboys/Rams game went way UNDER in Week 1. A lot of that was the Rams playing ball control offense. LA rushed it 40 times (Dallas only ran it 27). Atlanta isn't going to play ball control offense. Falcons put up over 500 yards in Week 1 and only 72 of those came on the ground. Should be enough possessions to push this game well past the mark. Give me the OVER 52.5!
|09-17-20||Bengals v. Browns OVER 43.5||Top||30-35||Win||100||31 h 8 m||Show|
50* BENGALS/BROWNS NFL *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (OVER 43.5)
If you have been following my NFL for awhile, you know that I'm pretty big on the OVER in these Thursday night games. People just haven't caught on to how much the lack of rest impacts the play on the defensive side of the ball.
Factor in how bad the Browns and Bengals looked offensively in Week 1 and I think we are getting big time value with the total at 43.5. I know Cleveland has Garrett, but the Browns defense is no where near as good as the front Cincinnati last faced in the Chargers. Burrow also flashed some in that game and you have to like a guy that makes plays when it matters late.
As for the Browns poor showing, they just went up against a really good Baltimore defense. Cleveland was able to run on the Ravens and should move the chains on the ground against a Bengals defense that won't have their best guy up front in Geno Atkins. Cleveland also has a bunch of guys hurt on defense. Play the OVER 43.5!
|09-14-20||Steelers v. Giants UNDER 45||Top||26-16||Win||100||8 h 23 m||Show|
50* STEELERS/GIANTS MNF MASSACRE (Under 45)
I really like the UNDER 45 in the early Monday Night Football matchup between the Steelers and Giants.
We know the Steelers defense is going to be good. It carried them last year and just felt like it kept getting better. They were outstanding against the run and should be again. They tied with NE allowing a league-low 7 rushing touchdowns. I think they can take away Barkley and I don't see Daniel Jones having a big day behind an offensive line that has 3 new starters.
As for the Steelers offense, there's a lot of optimism with the return of Big Ben. I just don't think he's going to be sharp in his first game back. I certainly don't think they are going to be looking to air it out.
I also think people could be sleeping some on the Giants defense. Most just remember how bad it was last year. They added 3 big pieces, including corner James Bradberry and defensive back Logan Ryan. Give me the UNDER 45!
|09-13-20||Colts v. Jaguars OVER 44.5||20-27||Win||100||49 h 34 m||Show|
40* COLTS/JAGUARS NFL NO-BRAINER (Over 44.5)
I was a bit shocked that this total wasn't closer to 50. The Jaguars have decimated their defense of all their top players over the last two seasons. Right before this year they traded away their star pass-rusher in Yannick Ngakoue, as well as corner A.J. Bouye and defensive lineman Calais Campbell. This team isn't stopping anyone.
I look for Philip Rivers to make quite the debut with his new team in Indy. This might be the best offensive line he's been behind in a decade. Colts are going to have balance with the run game and got playmakers on the outside.
I got a lot of respect for the Colts defense, but I think Gardner Minshew will be able to get the Jaguars into the endzone. I think Jacksonville is going to air it out even more in 2020 under new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden. I also don't think we need a ton from the Jags to push this OVER the mark. Give me the OVER 44.5!
|09-13-20||Bears v. Lions OVER 42||27-23||Win||100||49 h 33 m||Show|
40* BEARS/LIONS NFL STEAMROLLER (OVER 42)
I think the public perception with Chicago is that this is an UNDER team given their strong defense and lackluster QB play with Mitch Trubisky as their starter. Thing is, Trubisky has had a lot of success against Detroit since Matt Patricia took over. In fact, he's averaging 288.7 ypg with 9-1 TD-INT ratio over 3 starts.
As for the Bears defense, they will be without one of their better players in DE Robert Quinn, star linebacker Khalil Mack is also questionable. I just think with Matthew Stafford at the helm, Detroit is going to able to score, especially at home. People forget just how good this Lions offense was before Stafford tweaked his back last year.
Another thing to note, OVER has casheed in 12 of the last 13 Week 1 games involving Detroit. OVER was also 6-1 in their last 7 at home in 2019. I just feel like there's a good chance both teams eclipse 20 points and all we need is 43 combined to cash this ticket. Give me the OVER 42!
|09-12-20||UL-Lafayette v. Iowa State OVER 56.5||31-14||Loss||-110||70 h 58 m||Show|
40* UL-LAFAYETTE/IOWA ST NCAAF NO-BRAINER (Over 56.5)
I look for both offenses to have a ton of success in this game. While ISU only has 5 starters back and didn't exactly have a ton of practice time because of Covid, they should be in good shape with one of the best quarterbacks in the country in junior Brock Purdy.
Purdy is coming off a sophomore season in which he threw for nearly 4,000 yards with a 27-9 TD-INT ratio. ISU also gets back their top running back, who was 2nd-Team All-Big 12 as a true freshman last year. They also have one of the best TE groups in the nation.
UL-Lafayette only gave up 19.7 ppg last year, but that's a bit misleading given all the crap teams they play. They gave up 38 points and nearly 500 yards of offense in their opener against Mississippi State.
ISU has been one of the better defensive teams in the Big 12 under head coach Matt Campbell, but they are more built to stop the pass. The Ragin' Cajuns averaged 257 rushing yards on 6.3 yards/carry last year. They got their stud RB back and also have a very underrated QB in Levi Lewis. They are going to score points. Give me the OVER 56.5
|09-10-20||Texans v. Chiefs OVER 54.5||20-34||Loss||-104||54 h 5 m||Show|
40* CHIEFS/TEXANS NFL VEGAS INSIDER (Over 54.5)
I don't get the vibe at all that KC is going to suffer any kind of Super Bowl hangover. I follow this team closely and they are 100% locked in. While I think they cover the big number, I'm not really interested in laying that in Week 1.
However, I do see some decent value here with the OVER 54.5. I just think Mahomes and this Chiefs offense are going to be almost impossible to stop. They got all their big weapons back and added in Clyde Edwards-Helaire at RB (absolute perfect fit). I think they will be every bit as good and if not better than the 35.3 ppg they put up in Mahomes MVP season in 2018.
Keep in mind the continuity the Chiefs offense has should benefit them even more this season with all the offseason time missed because of Covid.
I don't think the defense will be bad, but they are going to give up points and you got a big time talent at QB on the other side in this one in Watson. They simply get to 20 and I think we cash this easy. Give me the OVER 54.5!
|01-13-20||Clemson v. LSU UNDER 68.5||Top||25-42||Win||100||11 h 15 m||Show|
50* CLEMSON/LSU CHAMP GAME PLAY OF THE YEAR (UNDER 68.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 68.5. I was all over the UNDER in the Clemson/Ohio State semifinal matchup and I see this as a very similar matchup, yet we are getting almost a touchdown more to work with as that total was 62.
I think the 16 days off between games is a big advantage for the defenses, especially when you factor in the two outstanding defensive coordinators that these two teams have. Not to mention the talent on the defensive side for both sides.
Another thing that I think gets overlooked is the pressure of this game and how the nerves can play into the outcome. I think both teams will be cautious to make a mistake early and they really can't afford any letdowns to eclipse a total like this, as they have average more than 17 points a quarter to eclipse this mark. Give me the UNDER 68.5!
|01-05-20||Vikings v. Saints UNDER 50.5||Top||26-20||Win||100||3 h 17 m||Show|
50* VIKINGS/SAINTS NFL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 50.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 50.5 in the big NFC Wild Card matchup between the Saints and Vikings. I get the Saints come into this game on an offensive tear, as they scored 34 or more in each of their last 4 games, but I just don't see them matching that success against a really good Vikings defense. At the same time, I don't think Minnesota's offense is going to have much success here and I actually think they are going to focus a lot more on running the ball to not only keep their defense fresh, but to keep Drew Brees off the field. Give me the UNDER 50.5!
|01-04-20||Titans v. Patriots UNDER 44.5||Top||20-13||Win||100||11 h 22 m||Show|
50* NFL PATS/TITANS VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 44.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 44.5 between the Titans and Patriots. I'm not anticipating this one being all that entertaining, as I think both offenses are going to have a miserable time moving the ball. Pats offense is broken and the Titans offense isn't good enough to exploit an elite NE defense on the road. I wouldn't be shocked if both teams failed to reach 20 points in this one. UNDER is 16-5 in Pats last 21 games off a loss. Give me the UNDER 44.5!
|01-01-20||Michigan v. Alabama OVER 58||16-35||Loss||-109||22 h 17 m||Show|
40* NCAAF CITRUS BOWL TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 58)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 58 in the Citrus Bowl matchup between Alabama and Michigan. I just don't think either defense is going to be able to slow down the opposing offense in this one. Wolverines defense is built more to stop a power running game than it is the explosive passing game of the Crimson Tide and this is as bad an Alabama defense we have seen in quite some time. Crimson Tide are just decimated with injuries and players not playing on defense and this Michigan offense really improved over the course of the season. Both of these teams also like to play fast and I just think we are going to see a shootout on New Year's Day. Give me the OVER 58!
|12-29-19||Chargers v. Chiefs OVER 45.5||21-31||Win||100||46 h 18 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL SLAUGHTER (Over 45.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 45.5 in Sunday's game between Kansas City and Los Angeles. Chiefs offense hasn't went off in a while, but have been really close in a number of recent games. I think they are primed for a big showing against a deflated Chargers team that just wants this season to be over with. As for LA's offense, you know Rivers is going to go down swinging and while he did throw 4 picks in an earlier meeting with KC, he also had 353 passing yards. A lot has been made about the Chiefs defense. It's definitely improved, but they have also played their last 4 games against the Bears, Broncos, Patriots and Raiders, who are all struggling on offense. I think we see this thing get into the 50s. Give me the OVER 45.5!
|12-28-19||Clemson v. Ohio State UNDER 64||Top||29-23||Win||100||124 h 50 m||Show|
50* CFB PLAYOFFS SEMIFINAL PLAY OF THE YEAR (Under 64)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 64. Not to take anything away from these two offenses, I think the great offensive numbers for both teams are a result of the bad teams they faced in their conferences. You look at Clemson only scoring 24 against Texas A&M at home and Ohio State not producing at near the same level against the top teams in the Big 10. I just think both teams will have a much harder time moving the ball than the number suggests.UNDER has cashed in 4 straight semifinal games for Clemson and is 6-2 in their last 8 bowl games when they are favored. UNDER 5-1 in Buckeyes last 6 vs a team with a winning record 4-1 in their last 5 bowls. Give me the UNDER 64!
|12-28-19||Memphis v. Penn State UNDER 60.5||39-53||Loss||-110||115 h 29 m||Show|
40* NCAAF COTTON BOWL TOTAL DESTROYER (Under 60.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 60.5 in Saturday's Cotton Bowl showdown between Memphis and Penn State. I think both offenses could struggle to play up to their potential. Penn State lost offensive coordinator Ricky Rahne (left to be new head coach at Old Dominion). Memphis lost head coach Mike Norvell (left to be new head coach at FSU). Norvell not only was the head coach but the offensive play caller. I also think both defenses are better than they get credit for. Penn State has an elite defensive front that can make the Tigers one dimensional and the Nittany Lions offense only averaged 23.9 ppg in their 7 games against a Power 5 opponent that finished .500 or better. While Memphis isn't a Power 5 team I think they are real close in terms of talent. Give me the UNDER 60.5!
|12-24-19||BYU v. Hawaii OVER 64||34-38||Win||100||28 h 36 m||Show|
40* NCAAF HAWAII BOWL TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 64)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 64 in the Hawaii Bowl between none other than Hawaii and BYU. These two teams actually just played last year in the middle of October in Provo. The Cougars won that game 49-23 for a combined of 72.
These two offenses are even more potent this season. BYU comes in at 439.5 ypg (365 ypg in 2018) and Hawaii is averaging 469.7 ypg (420 ypg in 2018). These are also two offenses built on their passing attacks. Rainbow Warriors are 24th in passing compared to 71st in rushing. BYU is 6th in passing compared to 89th in rushing.
OVER is 15-6 in Hawaii's last 21 non-conference games and 11-4 in their last 15 as an underdog. Give me the OVER 64!
|12-22-19||Giants v. Redskins OVER 41||41-35||Win||100||4 h 29 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 41)These are two of the worst teams in the league and this is one of those games where the loser is actually the winner. Both teams are sitting at 3-11, tied for the second worst record in the NFL with the Dolphins. The team that loses would likely end up no worse than the No. 3 pick, potentially the No. 2 pick with the Dolphins favored at home against the Bengals this week. I just don’t think either team is going to be all that motivated to play any kind of defense in this game and it’s not like either of these teams are any good on that side of the ball to start with. Washington is 21st in total defense and New York are 25th. I also think both offenses are coming into this game with some momentum. Even though the Giants are likely to go to back to rookie Daniel Jones, I still think they are poised for a big game here. Jones played well in the first meeting against the Redskins and with Washington’s struggles against the run he won’t have to do it all. I’m not a Dwayne Haskins fan, but he has gotten a lot better as the season has progressed. He threw for a career high 261 yards last week against the Eagles and it’s no secret that the Giants have one of the worst secondaries in the league. I just think both teams are going to put up points and fully expect both sides to eclipse the 20-point mark and that’s really all we need to eclipse this low total. Give me the OVER 41!
|12-21-19||Liberty v. Georgia Southern OVER 57.5||23-16||Loss||-115||73 h 21 m||Show|
40* LIBERTY/GA SOUTH CURE BOWL TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 57.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 57.5 in Saturday's Cure Bowl that has Georgia Southern facing off against Liberty. I just think these two will eclipse 60 points without any problem. Both defenses are really bad and more importantly the weaknesses of both defenses play right into the strength of these two offenses.
Liberty is a team that likes to air it out. The Flames finished 21st in the nation with 290.5 passing yards/game. That high-powered passing attack will be going up against a Georgia Southern defense that ranked 91st against the pass, giving up 240.6 ypg. Not to mention one that gave up 298 ypg and 8.9 yards/completion against the pass on the road.
As for the Eagles, if you have watched them at all you know they are almost exclusive a run offense with that triple-option attack. Georgia Southern averaging 333.6 ypg and 260.8 ypg on the ground (8th). Liberty's defense is bad all around, but were 100th against the run, giving up 192.9 ypg. That too are much worse on the road, as they gave up 218 ypg and 5.2 ypg away from home. I think both teams score into the 30's. Give me the OVER 57.5!
|12-21-19||Texans v. Bucs OVER 50||23-20||Loss||-109||19 h 33 m||Show|
40* NFL BUCS/TEXANS TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 50)
I'll take my chances with the OVER 50 in Saturday's NFL game between the Bucs and Texans. At this point it’s almost automatic to lean OVER in any game involving the Buccaneers, as it’s cashed in 11 of their 14 games this season.
There’s even more reason to like the OVER when you factor in how these two teams match up against one another.
Houston has a very balanced offensive attack. Texans rank 7th in rushing (130.9 ypg) and 11th in passing (245.0 ypg). Key here is they will be forced to throw it against this Tampa defense, as the Bucs are allowing a league-low 73.3 rushing yards/game. The good news is Deshaun Watson should have no problem exploiting a TB defense that ranks 30th against the pass (276.8 ypg).
On the flip side of this, the Bucs offense is riding the arm of Jameis Winston for better or worse. It’s resulted in Tampa Bay ranking 28th in rushing (91.4) and 1st in passing (308.8 ypg). While interceptions continue to haunt Winston, he’s coming in having thrown for 914 yards and 8 touchdowns in his last two games. He should stay hot, as the Texans are 28th against the pass (266.1 ypg) and have had a lot more trouble defending the pass since J.J. Watt went down. Give me the OVER 50!
|12-20-19||Kent State v. Utah State OVER 67.5||51-41||Win||100||10 h 17 m||Show|
40* UTAH ST/KENT ST FRISCO BOWL MASSACRE (Over 67.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 67.5 in Friday's Frisco Bowl that has Utah State taking on Kent State. Both these teams are capable of scoring in bunches. Utah State is averaging 28.2 ppg and 425 ypg and have one of the best QB's in the country in Jordan Love. Kent State is scoring 27.4 ppg and finished off the year at 35.0 ppg in their last 3.More importantly, Neither of these teams are any good defensively, especially on the road. Kent State gave up 34.6 ppg and 495 ypg away from home and Utah State allowed 31.3 ppg and 471 ypg on the road. Both teams gave up over 230 rushing yards/game and more than 8 yards/ pass attempt away home. Give me the OVER 67.5!
|12-16-19||Colts v. Saints OVER 46.5||Top||7-34||Loss||-110||11 h 20 m||Show|
50* COLTS/SAINTS MNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 46.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 46.5 between the Colts/Saints on Monday Night Football. New Orleans is rolling on the offensive side of the ball. While it was in a losing effort, the Saints put up 46 points and nearly 500 yards of offense against the 49ers last Sunday. They are now averaging 35.0 ppg in their last 4. They will be facing a Colts defense that has allowed 38 to the Bucs and 31 to the Titans in their last 2. Most recently they let Jameis Winston threw for 467 yards against them.
As for the Colts offense, they should be able to hold their own in this game. New Orleans is not playing at the same level defensively as they did early in the year and they just suffered to massive injuries on that side of the ball, losing both Sheldon Rankins and Marcus Davenport to season-ending injuries. I think we could see these two eclipse this total by the 3rd quarter. Give me the OVER 46.5!
|12-15-19||Rams v. Cowboys UNDER 49||21-44||Loss||-107||118 h 30 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL SLAUGHTER (Under 49)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 49 in Sunday's game that has the Cowboys hosting the Rams. I just see way too much value here with the number, as Dallas' offense has really struggled to produce against quality defenses and this is not an easy matchup for Prescott. LA has been really good against both the run and the pass. They have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 106 or fewer rushing yards and have not allowed more than 202 passing yards in 4 straight.
Dallas' defense made Mitch Trubisky look like a MVP last week and I think that's definitely playing into this number. I just didn't think the Cowboys played with any heart in that game. It was almost like they were shell-shocked that Trubisky could do what he did. Goff was great at home last week against the Seahawks, but he's notoriously a much worse QB on the road. This number says shootout, but I'm calling for a defensive battle. Give me the UNDER 49!
|12-15-19||Bucs v. Lions OVER 47.5||38-17||Win||100||115 h 20 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 47.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 47.5. The OVER has consistently hit in Tampa Bay games this year, going 10-3 with a strong 6-2 mark in their 8 games away from home.
A big reason for that is the Bucs high-powered passing attack, which comes in ranked 2nd in the at 298.2 ypg. One that should be on full display this Sunday even with star wide out Mike Evans not expected to play. That’s because Winston will be up against a Lions secondary that ranks 30th in the league against the pass, giving up 276.5 ypg.
Not to mention the ideal playing conditions in the dome. Note that Tampa has played two games in a dome this season. Both went over the total and the average combined score was 56 points.
One reason this total isn’t 50+ is because of the Lions offense and how bad it looked last week. Not to mention they are down to 3rd string QB David Blough. However, Blough hasn’t been all that bad given his first two starts have come against two pretty good defenses in the Bears and Vikings. He had 280 yards and 2 TD’s at home against Chicago and the Bucs come into this one ranked 31st against the pass, giving up 278.8 ypg.
I could see this one being something very similar to Tampa Bay’s last game with the Colts that ended up 38-35 with both teams eclipsing the 30-point mark. Either way I think they find a way to get to at least 48. Give me the OVER 47.5.!
|12-15-19||Broncos v. Chiefs OVER 46||Top||3-23||Loss||-109||115 h 8 m||Show|
50* NFL AFC WEST TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 46)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 46 in Sunday's AFC West matchup between the Broncos and Chiefs. I'm well aware that it's going to be snowing in KC before during and after the game. The betting public sees this and instantly wants to take the UNDER, but in reality the snow actually helps the offenses, as it's much harder to react on defense, as well as generate a pass rush. The biggest thing weather wise that hurts offense is wind and it's not suppose to be that windy.
I just think this KC offense is ready to explode after being bottled up last week against the Patriots. With that said there's no shame in scoring 23 points on that NE defense, especially on the road and the Chiefs should have had a lot more.
There's no question the KC defense has improved with each passing week, but it's far from elite and worse defenses have had success against Brady and the Pats here of late. I know they held the Broncos to just 6-points in the first meeting, but that was with Joe Flacco at quarterback. Drew Lock is a big upgrade over Flacco and he's going to generate some big plays. He's also likely to make a couple mistakes, which should lead to some quick scores for Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. Give me the OVER 46!
|12-12-19||Jets v. Ravens OVER 44.5||21-42||Win||100||50 h 29 m||Show|
40* JETS/RAVENS TNF TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 44.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 44.5 I get the defensive numbers have been decent for New York this season, but look at who they have played. Outside of their division opponents, they have played the Browns, Eagles, Cowboys, Jags, Giants, Redskins, Raiders and Bengals.
This is by far the best offensive they have faced. I know Lamar Jackson is nursing a quad injury, but he’s fully expected to play and I can’t imagine the Ravens sending him out there if they don’t feel he’s at or near 100%. I just don’t think the Jets will be able to slow this offense down and with Sam Darnold on the other side, I wouldn’t be shocked if Baltimore’s defense didn’t find the endzone in this one.
While Darnold could make some costly mistakes, he’s also very capable of guiding this Jets offense up and down the field. Much like New York’s defense will struggle to play well on just 3-days of rest, the same can be said for Baltimore. Not to mention this has the feel of a big flat spot for that Ravens defense, as they have really put it all on the line the last four weeks against the Texans, Rams, 49ers and Bills. Give me the OVER 44.5.
|12-07-19||Baylor v. Oklahoma OVER 62.5||23-30||Loss||-109||114 h 30 m||Show|
40* NCAAF CHAMP SATURDAY TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 62.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 62.5. My biggest reason for liking the OVER is these two combined for 65 points in the first meeting with Oklahoma only scoring 10-points in the 1st half and Baylor getting shutout in the 2nd half. I think we see both teams score early and often the second time around. Keep in mind last year’s Big 12 title game against Texas saw 66 points and 945 total yards of offense.
I will admit I’m a lot more confident with Oklahoma’s offense putting up a big number. It was like once Jalen Hurts and Lincoln Riley figured out what Baylor was wanting to do on defense, there was no stopping them. Keep in mind they only punted once the entire game in that first meeting.
As for the Bears not scoring in the 2nd half, they just didn’t get a chance to get anything going. Baylor fumbled on their first possession of the 2nd half and went 3 and out on their next two possessions. There was 5:25 left in the 4th quarter and the Bears had run a mere 7 plays in the 2nd half. They still averaged a healthy 5.9 yards/play in that matchup. Give me the OVER 62.5!
|12-01-19||Rams v. Cardinals OVER 47||34-7||Loss||-110||28 h 46 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 47)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 47. This game has shootout written all over it and I think we are getting a great price here because of how bad the Rams offense looked in that blowout loss to the Ravens. While I do think LA's got some problems with their offense, they should have no trouble moving the ball here against a bad Cardinals defense. Arizona's giving up 30.6 ppg 417 ypg and 6.6 yards/play at home this season. Key here is I think Murray and the Cardinals offense can go score-for-score with the Rams. Give me the OVER 47!
|11-25-19||Ravens v. Rams OVER 46.5||Top||45-6||Win||100||10 h 54 m||Show|
50* RAVENS/RAMS MNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 46.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Ravens and Rams eclipsing the total set by the books on Monday Night Football. LA has a solid defense, but there's just no slowing down Lamar Jackson and that Ravens offense. His ability to make something out of nothing is unreal and it's really deflating as a defense to do everything right and still give up the big play. Key here is I think the Rams are poised to go score-for-score with Baltimore. Goff is much better at home and will have his full compliment of weapons at his disposal with Cooks back from injury. Baltimore's defense is good but not great and I think they struggle to play well in this one. Give me the OVER 46.5!
|11-14-19||Steelers v. Browns OVER 41||Top||7-21||Loss||-110||11 h 30 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 41)
I'll take my chances with the OVER 41. I almost always lean to the OVER in these Thursday night games, as I just don’t think defenses can play up to their potential on just 3 days of rest. On top of that, I think we are getting a pretty decent number here with both of these teams coming off games in Week 10 where neither side scored 20 points.
Not only do I think both defenses will struggle with getting their bodies up to speed on just 3 days of rest, but I could see both defenses being a bit emotionally drained from really big games at home last week. No one was giving the Steelers a shot at beating the Rams at home and few believed in the Browns being able to beat the Bills. Both defenses had to give everything they had in those wins, which I think only adds to the likelihood that they struggle a bit on Thursday.
Also, history is on our side. Only once in the last 5 meetings have these two teams failed to reach 40 points. Last year they combined for 42 in Cleveland and 51 at Pittsburgh.
I think we could see Cleveland’s offense see an uptick in production now that Kareem Hunt is finally eligible. Hunt made his debut last week and rushed for 30 yards on just 4 attempts (7.5 yards/carry). He also had 7 receptions for 44 yards. Hunt was a difference maker with the Chiefs in his brief time in the league.
As for the Steelers offense, they are expected to get back running back James Conner, who has missed the last two weeks with a shoulder injury. Conner is a big upgrade over what the Steelers had to use without him. Give me the OVER 41!
|11-10-19||Cardinals v. Bucs OVER 51.5||27-30||Win||100||22 h 2 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 51.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 51.5, as I think this has the potential to be one of the highest scoring games of the season. OVER has cashed in 6 straight games for Tampa Bay with every single one of those game seeing at least 50 points. Bucs have allowed 30 or more points in 5 of their last 6. The only team they held under the mark is an awful Titans offense, who put up 27. Cardinals have allowed 28 or more in 3 of their last 4 and have scored 25 or more in 4 of their last 5. Give me the OVER 51.5!
|11-03-19||Bucs v. Seahawks OVER 52.5||Top||34-40||Win||100||31 h 58 m||Show|
50* NFC LATE AFTERNOON TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 52.5)
The OVER has cashed in each of the Bucs last 5 games and it’s pretty easy to see why with all the points they are giving up. Tampa Bay has allowed 30+ points in 5 of their 7 games this season.
I also don’t think this is an ideal spot for the defense to play well against an elite quarterback like Russell Wilson (TB 31st vs pass) and the fact that a lot of the Bucs players have to be running on fumes. Tampa Bay hasn’t played a home game since Week 3 (Sept. 22) as 4 of their last 5 have been true road games and the other was played in London.
As for Seattle’s defense, this is not the same vaunted Seahawks defense of years past. Seahawks are 27th against the pass and middle of the pack against the run. While the OVER is just 4-3 in their last 5, each of the last two games have barely stayed UNDER. They combined for 46 with a total of 48.5 against the Ravens and 47 with a total of 48.5 against the Falcons.
OVER is 15-5 in the Bucs last 20 road games and that includes a 9-2 OVER mark on the road with a total of 45.5 or more. OVER is also 11-2 in the Seahawks last 13 home games after a contest where they gave up 7 or more yards/play in their last game. Give me the OVER 52.5!
|10-25-19||USC v. Colorado OVER 62||Top||35-31||Win||100||71 h 39 m||Show|
50* USC/COLO PAC-12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH (OVER 62)
You can pencil in USC for a minimum of 30-points in this one and it wouldn’t surprise me if they eclipsed the 40-point mark. Colorado has given up at least 30 in every game. The only team giving up more passing yards/game than the 316 ypg the Buffaloes are allowing is New Mexico. Trojans Kedon Slovis had 377 against Stanford earlier this season and should go off here.
Also, I’m aware USC could be down their top 3 running backs. Starter Vavae Malepeai is out for the season, Stephen Carr and Markese Stepp are both questionable. Sometimes injuries can uncover a star and the Trojans are hoping that is the case for freshman Kenan Christon, who needed just 8 carries to rack up 103 yards and 2 scores. He’s got incredible speed and is a legit threat to go the distance any time he touches the ball.
Key here is I believe the Colorado offense will snap out of it’s recent funk and do their part to get us over the mark. Playing at home will definitely help and USC is dealing with all kinds of injuries on the defensive side of the ball. They were without their top 3 corners and defensive end Christian Rector last week. They added safety Talanoe Hufanga and star defensive linemen Drake Jackson to the injury list. Give me the OVER 62!
|10-24-19||Redskins v. Vikings OVER 42||Top||9-19||Loss||-104||46 h 59 m||Show|
50* REDSKINS/VIKINGS TNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 42)
I know the Redskins offense is hard to trust, but it’s not asking a lot for these two to get to 43 with both these defenses playing on 3 days rest.
It’s not out of the question that Minnesota could eclipse this total on their own. Vikings are playing with a ton of confidence on the offensive side of the ball and who knows how much resistance the Redskins defense will put up.
You can’t read anything into Washington holding the 49ers to 9-points with those conditions and the only other teams they have held under 30 points this season are the Dolphins and Giants. I would be shocked if Minnesota had anything fewer than 30 points in this game.
I’m going to count on Washington getting to at least 14 and I think they could get a few more. Minnesota’s defense has been slipping of late and with the way the offense figures to be moving the ball, they might not be 100% locked in. They also might call off the dogs if they do get up big, as they got a big game at KC on deck.
OVER is 9-2 in the Redskins last 11 road games vs a team with a winning home record and 7-1 in their last 8 games played on a Thursday. OVER is also 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Minnesota. Take the OVER!
|10-20-19||Ravens v. Seahawks OVER 48.5||30-16||Loss||-110||30 h 30 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER NO-BRAINER(Over 48.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 48.5 in Sunday's NFL action. These are two teams that not long ago were known for having elite defenses, but that's not the case anymore. Both these teams are built around their talented mobile quarterbacks in Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson. Jackson has the Ravens averaging 30.7 ppg and 451 ypg, while Wilson has the Seahawks at 27.5 ppg and 400 ypg. Both defenses have not been good. Baltimore is allowing 4.4 yards/rush, 61% completions, 7.7 yards/pass attempt and 6.5 yards/play. Seattle is allowing 4.7 yards/rush, 64% completions, 7 yards/pass attempt and 6.2 yards/play. BET THE OVER 48.5!
|10-20-19||Cardinals v. Giants OVER 50.5||27-21||Loss||-109||26 h 18 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 50.5)
I'll take my chances with the OVER 50.5 in Sunday's matchup between New York and Arizona. I think we are going to have offensive fire-works throughout. This Giants offense cooled off the last two games, but that was against two of the best defenses in the league in the Vikings and Patriots. Rookie Daniel Jones has flashed and with Saquan Barkley back I look for them to take off. At the same time the Giants defense is still bad and will struggle against a surging Cardinals offense led by rookie Kyler Murray. GIVE ME THE OVER 50.5!
|10-20-19||Raiders v. Packers UNDER 47||Top||24-42||Loss||-110||26 h 1 m||Show|
50* NFL NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 47)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 47 in Sunday's showdown between the Raiders and Packers. I think this is going to be an ugly game the whole way. Green Bay is out star wide out Davante Adams and may be without both Allison and Valdes-Scantling. Problem is the Packers likely will need to be able to throw, as the Raiders have held 4 of their first 5 opponents under 100 yards rushing. They also have only allowed more than 255 passing once this season and that was to Mahomes and a healthy KC offense.
Oakland's defense is better than people give them credit for, plus they should be extra sharp on that side coming off a bye. As for the Packers defense, it's really what has saved this team. Green Bay has really improved on that side of the ball and we have seen this Oakland offense struggle to get going when up against better defensive teams. I don't see this turning into a shootout. BET THE UNDER 47!
|10-17-19||Chiefs v. Broncos OVER 48.5||Top||30-6||Loss||-110||9 h 18 m||Show|
50* CHIEFS/BRONCOS TNF SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 48.5)
It’s really hard for the books to set the number on the total high enough in these Thursday games. It’s hard for these players to bounce back from just 3-days of rest and it tends to have a bigger impact on the defenses ability to perform up to expectations.
The Chiefs offense welcomed back arguably their best weapon in wide out Tyreek Hill last week and he led the way with 5 catches for 80 yards and two scores.
I think the Broncos will have a tough time here keeping Mahomes and this Chiefs offense in check. At the same time, there’s little reason to think the Kansas City defense is going to play well in this game. They are down nose tackle Xavier Williams, defensive linemen Chris Jones and corner Kendall Fuller.
As bad as the Broncos offense has been, this is a team they can have success against. I also think it’s important to note that Denver’s offense has faced a lot of good defenses. Outside of their two division games against Oakland and Los Angeles, they have had to go up against the Bears, Jaguars, Packers and Titans. All of those teams rank in the top half of the league in scoring defense.
You also got to look at the last three meetings in the series, all of which have come with Mahomes as the starter for KC. Each of those games saw at least 50 combined points.
OVER is 17-5 in the Chiefs last 22 road games, 7-2 in their last 9 off a game they failed to cover, 4-1 in their last 5 off a SU loss and 5-1 in their last 6 on Thursday. Take the OVER!
Bonus Prop Bet: Philip Lindsay OVER 72.5 (-110) Rushing Yards
|10-13-19||Falcons v. Cardinals OVER 51.5||33-34||Win||100||27 h 39 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 51.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 51.5, as I think we are going to see another shootout with the Falcons, who just combined for 85 points in a 53-32 loss at Houston. Atlanta is giving up 30.4 ppg against teams that only average 23.8 ppg. They are allowing 71% completion by opposing QBs and 6.2 yards/play (7.0 yards/play on the road).
Arizona's defense isn't much better. Cardinals are allowing 27.6 ppg and 408 ypg. They too are giving up more than 6 yards/play (6.4). They can't stop the run or the pass. They are allowing 4.8 yards/carry and 7.7 yards/pass attempt.
Also, both teams are dealing with some big injuries on defense. Atlanta has already lost defensive tackle Michael Bennett and safeties Keanu Neal and Johnathan Cyprien to the IR. Safety Ricardo Allen is questionable, as is corners Desmond Trufant and Blidi Wreh-Wilson.
Arizona is still without suspended star corner Patrick Peterson (serving 6 game suspension) and corner Robert Alford (IR). Linebackers Haason Reddick and Terrell Suggs are both questionable among others. Give me the OVER 51.5!
|10-10-19||Giants v. Patriots OVER 41||Top||14-35||Win||100||9 h 29 m||Show|
50* GIANTS/PATRIOTS TNF VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 41)
New York will be down their top two running backs, as well as wideout Sterling Shepard and tight end Evan Engram. Plus, we just saw Jones and the Giants do next to nothing against a good Minnesota defense and the Patriots defense has looked outstanding early on.
You just can’t expect teams to play up to their full potential on the defensive side of the ball when they only get 3 days of rest. Look at how good the Packers defense played in Week 1-3 (allowed a combined 35 points), how they struggled in Week 4 on Thursday Night Football (allowed 34 points) and then how good they played against Dallas last week.
I know Belichick has owned rookie quarterbacks and all that, but I think with Jones at quarterback they can put up at least 10-14 points and that’s on the low end of things.
At the same, I could see New England going over the total on their own. The Giants defense is awful. They let Kirk Cousins, who had been awful up to this point, throw for 306 yards and 2 scores while completing 82% of his passes. They are giving up 9.1 yards per pass play. They got no chance of slowing down Tom Brady and that Patriots offense. I think the Pats could play poorly and still score 30+ points.
The other thing is that with the Giants decimated at the running back position and them likely playing from behind early, New York is going to be forced to throw a lot. Add in Belichick’s ability to confuse rookie QB’s and it would shock me if the Giants didn’t have multiple turnovers in this game. That should lead to easy quick scores for NE. Give me the OVER 41!
|10-06-19||Packers v. Cowboys UNDER 47||Top||34-24||Loss||-109||88 h 4 m||Show|
50* NFC OVER/UNDER TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 47)
I'm expecting an ugly low-scoring affair in Sunday's big matchup between the Cowboys and Packers. I think both of these teams are a lot better defensively than people realize and a bit limited on the offensive side of the ball. Cowboys offense was awful against New Orleans. They had just 45 rushing yards and 212 thru the air. Packers defense gave up a lot last week to the Eagles, but that was largely due to it being played on Thursday and the defensive guys just not having enough time to recover. Give me the UNDER 47!
|10-03-19||Rams v. Seahawks OVER 49||Top||29-30||Win||100||20 h 1 m||Show|
50* RAMS/SEAHAWKS TNF SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 49)
My early lean here would be to take the OVER 49. I just don’t know if Seattle is as good as we think and I’m not about to take LA in a pick’em on the road with 3 days of rest. I just think given how defenses have struggled to perform in these Thursday games, that’s where the value is.
Clearly there are some holes in the Rams defense, especially against the pass. Jameis Winston completed 28 of 41 for 385 yards and 4 scores last week. They let Chris Godwin haul in 12 catches for 172 yards and 2 scores. Russell Wilson only threw for 240 last week, but that’s because they were up big early. He had 406 the previous week against the Saints and 300 the week before at Pittsburgh. I think he’s going to have a big day throwing the ball.
As for the Rams offense, I really think that outburst by them was a big positive in the loss to Tampa last week. That was the first time all year they looked anything like the offense from 2018. Seattle’s defense has been decent, but they have also faced Andy Dalton, Mason Rudolph, Teddy Bridgewater and Kyler Murray.
You also have to take into account the recent meetings between these two have all been high-scoring. Both meetings last year saw at least 64 combined points.
Over is 10-3 in Seahawks last 13 games overall, including 8-2 in their last 10 at home vs a team with a winning road record. OVER 7-3 in the Rams last 10 after giving up 30 or more points and 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 30 or more. Give me the OVER 49!
|09-27-19||Penn State v. Maryland OVER 60||Top||59-0||Loss||-115||9 h 57 m||Show|
50* NCAAF BIG TEN TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 60)
I think these two are going to fly OVER the total tonight. Penn State is coming off a very misleading 17-10 final against Pitt. That game was played in the rain and the sloppy field conditions really limited both offenses. That same Pitt defense gave up 34 points and over 400 yards of offense against UCF.
Penn State is young on the offensive side of the ball, but they got big time talent across the board. Maryland's defense gave up 400 yards to Syracuse and 427 to Temple. Neither of those offenses are anything close to as good as what they will see from the Nittany Lions.
At the same time, I like what I have seen from the Terps offensively in 2019. Joshua Jackson looks like a great fit (Va Tech transfer) and I think there are some definitely holes in the Penn State defense. While they held Buffalo to a mere 13 points, they gave up 429 total yards to the Buffaloes. Same thing against Pitt, they held the Panthers to 10 points despite allowing 394 yards (gave up 372 passing yards). I think both teams easily hit 30 points. Give me the OVER 60!
|09-26-19||Eagles v. Packers OVER 46||Top||34-27||Win||100||10 h 31 m||Show|
50* EAGLES/PACKERS TNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 46)
I'll take my chances with the OVER 46. Even though we haven’t seen a ton of scoring early on in these Thursday Night matchups, I still think there’s some value to be had on that side of the total in these games played on just 3 days of rest.
I think one of the big focal points coming into this game will be how good the Green Bay defense has played. I’m not about to say the Packers defense hasn’t been good, but I also don’t think it’s as good as some might think. Let’s not overlook the fact that the 3 quarterbacks Green Bay has faced are Mitch Trubisky, Kirk Cousins and Joe Flacco. I think we all would take Carson Wentz over any of those 3 starters.
Another thing to note is that while Green Bay has not allowed a lot of points, teams are running the ball effectively on them. Packers are allowing 131 ypg and 4.9 yards/carry against the run.
As for the Eagles defense, they have done an outstanding job against the run, but have had their problems against the pass. Philadelphia is only allowing 57 yards/game and 2.9 yards/carry against the run, but allowing 294 passing yards/game and 7.4 yards/pass attempt. I know Rodgers hasn’t been lighting it up, but I could see him going off in this prime time matchup.
OVER is 16-5 in the Packers last 21 vs a team with a losing record. OVER is also 35-17 in the Eagles last 52 off a straight up loss and 4-1 in their last 5 games played on Thursday.
OVER is 40-16 (71%) the last 10 seasons when you have a home team playing in the month of September that has covered the spread in each of their last two games. Take the OVER!
|09-09-19||Texans v. Saints OVER 52||Top||28-30||Win||100||9 h 45 m||Show|
50* NFL SAINTS/TEXANS MNF SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 52)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 52 in this one. This thing has shootout written all over it. Houston's defense won't be as strong without Clowney and there's just no slowing down Drew Brees and that Saints offense at home. Keep in mind Texans ranked 28th against the pass last year and got a lot of new faces on that side of the ball. Even bigger thing here is I think Houston's offense will be potent in 2019. DeShaun Watson quietly had a great 2018 season and that was behind an awful offensive line. In losing Clowney they got a big upgrade in left tackle Laremy Tunsil. They used a 1st and 2nd round pick on offensive linemen. Saints defense ranked 29th vs the pass last year. Give me the OVER 52!
|09-07-19||Vanderbilt v. Purdue OVER 55||24-42||Win||100||18 h 54 m||Show|
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL DESTROYER (Over 55)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 55. While the Boilermakers are coming off a crushing loss to Nevada, the loss was more on the defense. Purdue had over 500 yards of total offense and were throwing the football all over the place. Not to mention they were playing with even more pace than last year.
Vanderbilt wants to play faster and have some serious weapons at the skill positions. The Commodores couldn't get anything going against an elite Georgia defense, but should be able to put up plenty of points in this one. This total should be closer to 60 and I wouldn't be shocked if the two combined for 70. Give me the OVER 55!
|09-06-19||Marshall v. Boise State OVER 56.5||Top||7-14||Loss||-110||10 h 28 m||Show|
50* NCAAF FRIDAY NIGHT OVER/UNDER KNOCKOUT (Over 56.5)
I'll gladly take my chances with the oVER 56.6 in Friday's matchup between Marshall and Boise State. Two talented young quarterbacks will be guiding the two offenses in this one. Thundering Herd send out sophomore Isaiah Green, who was the C-USA Freshman Player of the Year in 2018. Green is expected to make a big jump this year and just set a new career-high with 4 TD passes in their Week 1 win. Boise State has true freshman Hank Bachmeier looking to build on quite the first start. Bachmeier threw for 407 yards in a win at Florida State. The most impressive thing is they trusted him enough to let him air it out 51 times. Boise as a team ran 108 plays. I think there will be a lot of big plays in the passing game and for this to easily hit 60. Give me the OVER 56.5!
|08-30-19||Oklahoma State v. Oregon State OVER 74||52-36||Win||100||95 h 29 m||Show|
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL DESTROYER (Oregon St/Oklahoma St OVER 74)
I was originally going to lay the points with Oklahoma State, but there's just something about a game in Corvallis that scares me. However, I'm not concerned with the Cowboys ability to score points with whoever ends up playing QB.
Gundy is a QB guru and he just added in Sean Gleeson from Princeton to be his OC. Gleeson did some pretty innovative stuff with Princeton and he's got a ton of playmakers at his disposal. None better than junior wide out Tylan Wallace.
Oregon State has 9 guys back on defense, but that doesn't mean as much when it's from a unit that gave up 45.7 ppg and 537 ypg. Opposing QB's completed 64% of their attempts against the Beavers secondary in 2018.
Oregon State gave up 40 or more in 7 of their 12 games last year, including 77 in the opener to Ohio State.
Key here is that while OK State is primed to put up a big number, I think the Beavers will do their part offensively behind senior QB Jake Luton and some talented skill players. Also, Cowboys only have 5 starters back on a defense that wasn't great in 2018. Give me the OVER 74!
|08-29-19||Kent State v. Arizona State OVER 59.5||7-30||Loss||-120||71 h 21 m||Show|
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 59.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 59.5. When I first looked at this game I considered laying the 25 points with ASU and would probably still lean that way. However, I feel there's a lot more value here with the OVER, as we simply need 60 points to reach our mark.
Arizona State was way better than expected in year one under Herm Edwards and they did that with a pretty mediocre offense (29.9 ppg). I think they are closer to 35 ppg in 2019 and should score a ton against a Kent State defense that is outmatched. I'm really excited to see freshmen quarterback Jayden Daniels, who should thrive with how much defenses will have to respect the run with Eno Benjamin back (1,642 yards, 16 touchdowns).
The even bigger key here is the tempo "FlashFAST" in which Kent State second year head coach Sean Lewis is looking to play at. He's a former OC under Dino Babers and their uptempo offense at Syracuse. Last year he got a Kent State offense that returned just 6 starters from a team that averaged 12.8 ppg and got them 23.9 ppg with more than 100 yards/game improvement. They got 9 starters back, including one of the better QBs in the MAC in Woody Barrett. I think this is going to be a much better offense than anyone anticipates. Give me the OVER 59.5!
|08-24-19||Florida v. Miami-FL UNDER 47||Top||24-20||Win||100||21 h 38 m||Show|
50* MIAMI/FLORIDA NCAAF WEEK ZERO TOP PLAY (Under 47)
If I had to take a side, I would grab the points with the Hurricanes, but I feel the better value is with the UNDER 47 on the total.
Miami has without a doubt one of the best front seven’s in college football. They got 3 potential NFL linebackers who all turned down the NFL to return for their senior season. This defense led the country last year in tackles for loss.
One of the things that gets overlooked by the public when they look at the early season matchups is the talent returning/lost along the offensive line. Last year Florida had all 5 starters back on the offensive line. It’s a big reason why they had such a strong running back and Feleipe Franks was able to make a big jump. This year only one starter is back and I just don’t see them being able to handle that front of the Hurricanes.
It’s a very similar story on the other side of the ball. Florida has so much talent on the defensive side of the ball and should have one of the best defensive lines in the country. Defensive coordinator Todd Grantham is one of those guys that it really doesn’t matter the talent, he’s going to field a top tier defense. He’s got 8 starters back on that side of the ball.
Miami loses 3 starters on the offensive line, don’t have near the same talent at running back as they did a season ago and will be starting red-shirt freshman Jarren Williams at quarterback. Williams surprised everyone by beating out returning sophomore N’Kosi Pery and Ohio State transfer Tate Martell.
Not only will it be difficult for both teams to move the ball, you have to think that if/when they do get in the redzone they will have to end up settling for field goals.
UNDER is 20-7 in the Gators last 27 matchups with a team from the ACC and 7-1 in the Hurricanes last 8 neutral site contests. Give me the UNDER 47!
|12-30-18||Panthers v. Saints OVER 42.5||33-14||Win||100||25 h 34 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 42.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 42.5 on the total for Sunday's meaningless NFC South matchup between the Panthers and Saints. I just think there's zero incentive for either side to go all out on the defensive side of the ball.
New Orleans has the No. 1 seed in the NFC locked up. This is more like an exhibition game than anything. I just think the defense will be pretty vanilla and most of the starters will be out of this game early. I know Panthers are down to Josh Allen at quarterback, but the guy played well in relief last week and was decent in the preseason.
No Drew Brees for the Saints is a big reason the total here is so low, but they got Teddy Bridgewater starting and he was outstanding in the preseason and will want to put on a show, as he tries to land a starting job for next year. Panthers defense has had the life sucked out of them with this losing streak and they are giving up 27.6 ppg on the road. I think these two fly past this number in the perfect conditions of the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Take the OVER 42.5!
|12-17-18||Saints v. Panthers OVER 50||Top||12-9||Loss||-105||8 h 24 m||Show|
50* MNF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 50)
For whatever reason, these two have a history of playing high-scoring games. The OVER cashed in all 3 meetings between these two teams last year and is 7-1 in the last 8 overall.
A big reason for that is the Panthers defense hasn’t figured out a way to slow down Brees and the Saints offense. New Orleans had at least 31 points in all 3 meetings last year and have scored 30 or more in 5 of the last 6 in the series. It really shouldn’t be a big surprise. The Panthers defense hasn’t been great in the secondary and are more built to stop the run behind star middle linebacker Luke Kuechly. Their secondary can be exposed and few are better at dicing up defensive backs than Sean Payton and Brees.
This year is no different for Carolina. They come into this game ranked 7th against the run but are a mere 20th agains the pass. They also don’t do a great job of putting pressure on the quarterback, as they rank in the bottom 10 in sacks this year.
As for the Saints offensive struggles the last two games, I think a big part of that was both Dallas and Tampa Bay have been getting after the quarterback. Cowboys have been doing it all season and the Bucs have made major improvements in that area since switching defensive coordinators.
I think it’s reasonable to expect around 30 points from New Orleans, which means we only need something like 21-24 from Carolina. The Panthers can move the football. They are 9th in the NFL in total offense at 378.1 ypg. They are also lighting up the scoreboard at Bank of America Stadium. Carolina comes in averaging 30.8 ppg at home. Give me the OVER 50!
|12-15-18||Tulane v. UL-Lafayette OVER 58||41-24||Win||100||66 h 0 m||Show|
40* CURE BOWL OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 58)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 58. I just think the matchup here is going to present quite a bit of scoring opportunities. I know it’s been a couple years, but last time these two teams played (9/24/2016), Tulane won the game 41-39 for a combined 80 points and that contest only had a total of 47.
I’m not saying they hit 80 again, but I think we get that kind of game where both teams are putting up a big number.
Let’s look at the Tulane offense against the Lafayette defense. First things first, the Ragin’ Cajuns are giving up 35.7 ppg and 439 ypg away from home.
The Green Wave come finished 30th in the nation in rushing at 208.3 ypg. They should have zero problem establishing the running game against the Ragin’ Cajuns, who give up 208 ypg and 5.1 yards/carry.
While the Mean Green passing attack only averaged 186 ypg (103rd), they showcased it a little more down the stretch, throwing for 372 yards against East Carolina and 291 in the finale against Navy. Lafayette allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 67% of their attempts against them on the road with a ridiculous 10.1 yards/pass attempt.
As for the Ragin’ Cajuns offense, it’s what carried them this season. Lafayette averaged 32.5 ppg and 437 ypg with an impressive 6.7 yards/play. Tulane’s defense was pretty good on their home field, but they allowed 32.8 ppg and 452 ypg on the road. The Ragin’ Cajuns averages 229 rushing yards/game and 5.7 yards/carry. They also completed 65% of their pass attempts for 208 ypg and 8.4 yards/attempt.
They did all that despite scoring fewer than 20 points in 5 road games against Mississippi State, Alabama, Troy and Appalachian State (twice). I think most are aware of how good the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide are defensively. The Trojans were 29th in total defense and Appalachian State was 6th. Tulane is 81st. Give me the OVER 58!
|12-09-18||Rams v. Bears OVER 50.5||Top||6-15||Loss||-115||29 h 30 m||Show|
50* SUN NIGHT FOOTBALL TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 50.5)
First things first with a midwest game in December, you have to check the forecast before playing the total. It’s going to be cold, but nothing these players can’t candle. Most importantly there’s no precipitation or strong winds expected. I think Mother Nature is the only thing that could keep these two teams from eclipsing this number.
I get the Bears have one of the best defenses in the NFL. There’s no denying that. I just think the Rams offense is simply too good for any defense to stop. They were average at best last week at Detroit and still managed to put 30 points up on the scoreboard. I think it’s also important to note that Tom Brady and the Patriots came into Soldier Field and put up 38 points earlier this season.
The other big key here is I still think this Chicago offense is flying under the radar. Even with starting quarterback Mitch Trubisky out the past two games, they still managed 25 ppg and both of those were on the road. Trubisky and the Bears offense was really in a groove before he went down and we know this LA defense can be exposed.
Another factor here that I think favors the OVER is that while both defenses figure to give up plenty of points, both teams have a lot of playmakers on the defensive side of the ball. I think there’s going to be multiple turnovers and wouldn’t be shocked at all if both teams scored defensive touchdowns in this game.
I get 52 seems like a lot, but all we need is for a 30-23 final to cash a winning ticket. I actually think they score more than that and this thing ends up closer to 65. Give me the OVER 50.5!
|12-02-18||Chiefs v. Raiders OVER 55||40-33||Win||100||24 h 5 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 55)
|12-01-18||UAB v. Middle Tennessee State UNDER 44.5||27-25||Loss||-102||22 h 17 m||Show|
40* C-USA CHAMPIONSHIP TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 44.5)
I'll gladly take the UNDER 44.5 in this one. I just think given the matchup and the familiarity with preparing for the same team two weeks in a row, is going to lead to a defensive battle.
I know homefield was on the line, but I really think UAB was playing possum in that game last week. I mean the Blazers finished the game with 89 total yards and were outgained by 300. I think to them it was more valuable to lose that game and now show Middle Tennessee anything that might help them win this week.
I certainly don’t expect the Blue Raiders to pile on 27 points and for Brent Stockstill to go 22 of 29 for 261 yards and 2 scores. UAB’s defense is much better than that. In fact, they are 8th in the country in total defense, giving up just 387.2 ypg and are 7th nationally in defending the pass (166.3 ypg).
I also think that Middle Tennessee offense could be negated some by Mother Nature, as there’s a decent chance for rain in the forecast and winds are expecting to be blowing at least 20 mph.
On the flip side of this, I also don’t think the Blazers offense is going to be able to a lot here. UAB is pretty one-dimensional with the run, as they average almost twice as many rush attempts (44) as they do pass attempts (25). That’s going to make it tough sledding here against a talented Middle Tennessee defensive front. Blue Raiders are giving up 25.2 ppg on the season, but only 18.4 ppg in conference play and just 17.4 ppg at home.
UNDER is 9-2 in Middle Tennessee’s 11 home games over the last two seasons and a perfect 6-0 in the 6 games played in the 2nd half of the season. UNDER is also 9-2 in the Blazer’s last 11 road games, 7-1 in their last 8 vs a team with a winning record and a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 off a SU loss. Give me the UNDER 44.5!
|11-25-18||49ers v. Bucs OVER 54||9-27||Loss||-110||20 h 49 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 54)
I'll take my chances here with these two teams eclipsing the total here. I think the only thing that could keep these two from combining for at least 55 points is mother nature and she's going to be in a good mood Sunday with temps in the mid 70's, no chance of rain and barely any wind.
The OVER is 8-2 in games involving the Bucs this year and it's really not hard to figure out why. Tampa Bay leads the NFL in total offense at 458.5 ypg and are also 1st in passing at 374.6 ypg. They are 3rd in scoring (26.7 ppg), though it's scary to think what they could average without all the turnovers. That offense is backed up big one of the league's worst defenses, which is giving up 32.9 ppg and 395.9 ypg.
49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is a brilliant offensive-mind and I'm pretty confident he's going to have Mullens ready to shred this Bucs defense. Not to mention there's no reason not to let Mullens air it out with a 2-8 record. They got their franchise QB in Jimmy G, so no need to tank. Best case would be Mullens shines and you can trade him for draft picks.
If these two defenses simply play to form we are good, as the 49ers are giving up 28.4 ppg and the Bucs allow 32.9. That puts us around 60. I think we easily hit that and there's a chance this thing good push 70. Give me the OVER 54!
|11-15-18||Packers v. Seahawks OVER 48||Top||24-27||Win||100||10 h 23 m||Show|
50* NFL -GB/SEA- VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 48)
I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER at 48. I’ve said it time and time before, the books just don’t adjust the number enough on the total for these Thursday games. Playing good defense is all about effort and energy, where offense is more about execution. Three days just isn’t enough for these defensive guys to recover and play at their full potential.
We saw this first hand last week with the Panthers/Steelers matchup, which saw Pittsburgh eclipse the total on their own as the two combined for 73 points. There have only been two times this season where they OVER hasn’t hit on a Thursday game with teams playing on short rest. That was Week 3 with the Browns/Jets (only missed the over by a point and would have hit had Mayfield started instead of coming in for Tyrod Taylor). The other was a couple weeks ago with the 49ers/Raiders, where Oakland is in full-on tank mode.
This week we got two of the best quarterbacks in the game in Aaron Rodgers for Green Bay and Russell Wilson for the Seahawks. I expect both teams to have a lot of success moving the football.
The Packers are at the bigger disadvantage here, as they not only have to play on short-rest but they have to travel quite a ways for this one and it’s been quite a run of travel for Green Bay of late. They traveled to the west coast to play the Rams in Week 8, then went across the country to the east coast to play New England. They returned home for a game against Miami and are now headed back west.
For Seattle, I think it’s going to no only be tough for them to recover physically, but that was a very emotional game against a division rival where they were playing with revenge. Tough turnaround here for them to get up defensively after trying to contain that Rams offense.
While this is more about rest than anything for me, it’s worth noting the OVER is a solid 35-19 in the Packers last 54 as a road dog (avg. score in these games is 51.3) and 13-4 in the Seahawks last 17 as a home favorite of 3-points or less. Give me the OVER 48!
|11-08-18||Panthers v. Steelers OVER 51.5||Top||21-52||Win||100||12 h 39 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 51.5)
Those that have been following from the start of the year, know how much I like the OVER in these Thursday night games. There's only been two games this season on Thursday with teams playing on short rest that have went under the total. One of those was last week, where who the hell knows what Gruden and the Raiders are doing. The other was a game that went under by just 1-point. Tonight we got two of the best offenses in the NFL, who both have top tier quarterbacks. I get how good Pittsburgh has been defensively and who the Panthers have on the defensive side of the ball, they just aren't going to be as good on just 3 days of rest, especially this late in the year. Not to mention the unfamiliarity these two teams have with this being a non-conference game and both teams coming off big division wins. Give me the OVER 51.5!
|11-04-18||Chiefs v. Browns OVER 52||37-21||Win||100||28 h 27 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 52)
I’m sure Gregg Williams is going to have this team excited to play and the Browns are going to come out 100% ready for this game. They still aren’t going to have an answer for Mahomes and this Chiefs offense. I just think there’s something special going on with Mahomes and that offense this year. What is Cleveland going to to do that others haven’t tried?
I know the Browns defense played well early on and everyone was saying how good this unit was going to be. They come into this game ranked 28th against the run (138.9 ypg) and 27th against the pass (289.9 ypg). They are giving up 414.5 ypg (28th). That’s the defense that is going to stop the Chiefs? They have allowed 25 or more in 4 of their last 5, including a game against the Raiders where they allowed 45.
Kansas City is averaging 36.2 ppg and I think they at worst score 30 points here. That means, all we need is around 21 points (likely less) from the Browns to eclipse the total. I know it seems dire for Cleveland’s offense losing their OC and HC the week before a game, but I think this Chiefs defense is just bad enough, especially on the road, to allow Mayfield and that Browns offense to move the football.
Keep in mind the Chiefs are giving up 32.7 ppg and 475 yards/game on the road this season. All four of their road games have seen at least 50 points and three of them have had 66 or more, including a 83-point game against the Patriots in their last away game. Give me the OVER 52
|11-01-18||Raiders v. 49ers OVER 45||Top||3-34||Loss||-110||10 h 54 m||Show|
50* RAIDERS/49ERS VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 45)
I’ve recommended the OVER in every single Thursday Night game since Week 2, which is when the teams first have to play these games on just 3-days rest. All but one of them have finished OVER the total and that one just missed out by a single point. Many of the ones that have hit haven’t even been close. I could definitely see this one between the 49ers and Raiders flying over the total.
What’s the real incentive for either of these teams right now? Oakland is trading away their best players for future draft picks and the 49ers season was over as soon as Garoppolo went down. The best strategy for both teams is certainly to not win games, as they are much better off tanking for a better draft pick. I know that doesn’t happen in the NFL like it does in the NBA, but I think we are starting to see the league trend more that way. We are definitely seeing a lot more action at the trade deadline than we have in the past.
The road team is always at a disadvantage in these games and the Raiders defense couldn’t be playing much worse. Oakland is dead last in the NFL against the run, giving up 144.7 ypg. San Francisco is 21st against the pass (275.5 ypg) and 13th against the run (102.9 ypg), but keep in mind they have played Arizona’s anemic offense twice. They also might be without linebacker Reuben Foster, corner Richard Sherman and safety Jaquiski Tartt. All of which are questionable to play.
The other key here is that these two teams have some decent talent on the offensive side of the ball. I think both teams have a realistic shot here of scoring somewhere between 27-34 points and all we need is for something like 27-20 to cash a winning ticket.
Lastly, there’s a great system in play. The Over is 64-29 (69%) over the last 10 seasons in non-conference games, where one team (49ers) is off a division loss by 7-points or less. Give me the Over 45!
|10-25-18||Dolphins v. Texans OVER 44||23-42||Win||100||9 h 58 m||Show|
40* DOLPHINS/TEXANS TNF TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 44)
I just think the perception here is that with the way Houston’s offense is struggling and the Dolphins missing several key players on offense, these two will struggle to put points on the board. That may be the case, but time after time we see a higher-scoring game than expected on Thursday Night Football.
Last week, people thought the same thing with the Broncos/Cardinals matchup, which had a total of just 41.5. The game finished with 55 points and the OVER cashed midway thru the 3rd quarter. The OVER is now 5-1 this season with teams playing on short rest on Thursday. I’ve said it time and time before, 3-days isn’t enough for players to recover, especially defensive guys, as so much of how well a defense plays depends on effort and energy.
I know Houston has a really strong defense and Miami will be starting Brock Osweiler with two of it’s top receivers in Albert Wilson and Kenny Stills both sidelined. The thing is, as bad as Owseiler has been in the past, he’s gone 54 of 80 (67.5%) for 654 yards and a 6-2 TD-INT ratio in his three appearances (2 starts). The Texans are well aware of the injuries and very familiar with Osweiler (played 15 games for Houston in 2016). Coming off that huge road win over Jaguars and just 3 days off, it wouldn’t surprise me if they struggle to give this Miami team their full attention.
On the flip side of this, I think we could Deshaun Watson and the Texans’ offense go off for a big number in this one. In Miami’s game last week against the Lions, Detroit scored on 7 of their 9 offensive possessions and one of those was them just kneeling to run out he clock at the end of the game. Not to mention they let the Lions of all teams, rush for 248 yards. Detroit’s highest rushing total in 21 years. The week before that they only forced the Bears to punt twice and Mitch Trubisky went 22 of 31 for 316 yards and 3 scores and Chicago had 164 yards on the ground.
The last 6 times the Dolphins allowed more than 450 total yards (gave up 457 to the Lions), the OVER is a perfect 6-0 in their next game. OVER is also a perfect 7-0 in Miami’s last 7 after giving up 25 or more points in each of their previous two games and 20-8 in the Texans’ last 28 home games after two straight games that finished under the total. Give me the OVER 44!
|10-21-18||Cowboys v. Redskins UNDER 41.5||17-20||Win||100||28 h 42 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Under 41.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 41.5, as I just think we have to limited offenses going up against two really good defenses.
I know the Cowboys just put up 40 points on what many feel is one of the best defenses in the NFL, but Jacksonville was a bit banged up defensively and it really did nothing to change my perception of this Dallas offense. Almost all of the damage came via the running game, as Prescott was just 17 of 27 for 183 yards. The Cowboys are simply one-dimensional and when they struggle to get the running game points are going to be very hard to come by.
Washington has been outstanding against the run this season. The Redskins rank 6th in the NFL, giving up just 90.2 ypg and the most they have allowed in any single game is 104 yards, so they have been very consistent at shutting down the opposing teams running attack. The only team to score more than 21 points against Washington is the Saints, who absolutely torched them through the air. That’s not a concern with Prescott and the Cowboys 29th ranked passing attack, which has topped 200 yards passing just once all season.
It’s a very similar story with Washington’s offense, which has really struggled to get into any kind of rhythm with Alex Smith at quarterback. It’s not that Smith has played bad, he’s just limited with what he can do. The biggest difference between Smith with the Redskins and Smith with the Chiefs, is he doesn’t have the brilliant Andy Reid calling the plays. Washington is 25th in the NFL in total offense (344 ypg) and 24th in scoring (21.2 ppg).
I have hard time seeing them figuring things out against a Dallas defense that is playing lights out to start the 2018 season. The Cowboys come in 7th in the NFL against the run (90.7 ypg) and 8th against the pass (224.5 ypg). They are also 2nd in the NFL in scoring defense, giving up just 17.2 ppg.
Add in this being a division matchup, where there’s a lot of familiarity between both teams and the winner of this one guaranteed to be in at least a share of 1st place in the NFC East after Sunday, I don’t see this one getting to 40 points. Give me the UNDER 41.5!
|10-18-18||Broncos v. Cardinals OVER 42||45-10||Win||100||10 h 37 m||Show|
40* CARDINALS/BRONCOS TNF TOTAL KNOCKOUT (OVER 42)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER in this one. It’s simply asking too much for NFL players to play up to their full potential on just 3 days of rest, especially defensive guys, where energy and effort is everything on that side of the ball. The OVER is 4-1 in Thursday games this season with teams playing on short rest and the only exceptions was the Jets/Browns, who combined for 38 with a total of 39.
The difficult part with the OVER in this matchup, is how bad the Cardinals offense has looked this season. I’m not saying they haven’t been bad, but I think they are going to improve quite a bit over the course of the season, as rookie quarterback Josh Rosen gets more and more comfortable. I wouldn’t be shocked if Rosen and that offense had a big day in this one.
Denver’s defense is reeling right now. After giving up 323 rushing yards to the Jets in Week 5, they gave up another 270 yards on the ground to the Rams. It’s only a matter of time before David Johnson goes off and he’s trending upwards with 4 touchdowns in his last 3 games. If they can get him going, which I think they will, it’s going to make it so much easier on Rosen to make plays through the air.
It’s a similar story for Denver. While Keenum has the ability to drop back every play, their offense is working at it’s best when they get the running game going. Arizona is 31st in the league against the run (152.2 ypg). You also have to think that Cardinals defense will be dragging a bit after a very physical game against the Vikings.
Another thing to keep in mind with the short 3-day break between games, is there’s not a lot of familiarity between the two teams in these non-conference games. Just another advantage for the two offenses in this one. I’m not saying it’s going to be 34-30 shootout, but all we need is for something like 24-20 to cash a winner. Give me the OVER 42.
|10-14-18||Chiefs v. Patriots OVER 59.5||40-43||Win||100||29 h 9 m||Show|
40* CHIEFS/PATRIOTS SNF TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 59.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 59.5 on Sunday Night Football. I know this is a ridiculously high total, but with the talent these two teams have at quarterback and at the skill positions and the defenses they will be up against, I think both have a legit shot at eclipsing 30-points.
There will be plenty who point out Mahomes coming back to reality after throwing his first two interceptions of the season and failing to throw a TD pass. Was it his best game? No. The kid still threw for 313 yards on 22 of 38 passing against what most considered the best defense in the league. One that a lot of other more accomplished quarterbacks have struggled against.
KC didn’t just have 300+ yards passing on the best defense in the league, they also rushed for 126 yards. I think the Chiefs are going to continue doing exactly what they have been doing, and that’s move the football up and down the field on the Patriots. New England’s defense just doesn’t impress me. They let Blake Bortles throw for 377 yards and last week Andrew Luck had 355 yards playing with a bunch of scrubs.
As for the Chiefs defense, they were fortunate to only hold the Jaguars to 14 points, as Jacksonville moved the ball at will with 502 yards and 29 first downs. Bortles simply made a bunch of costly mistakes and the offense turned it over 5 times. KC isn’t going to get those breaks against a quarterback the likes of Tom Brady. Last week the Patriots got back one of his top targets in Julian Edelman and I think this could be the game where Josh Gordon really starts to take off in that offense.
I see big plays happening at every turn and this being one of the most entertaining games of the season to date. OVER is 9-2 in Andy Reid’s last 11 games as the coach of the Chiefs when KC is a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 19-9 in the Patriots last 28 under Belichick at home with a total at 49.5 or more. Give me the OVER 59.5!
|10-13-18||Georgia v. LSU UNDER 51||16-36||Loss||-112||23 h 59 m||Show|
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 51)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 51 in Saturday's huge SEC cross-division matchup that has No. 2 Georgia visiting No. 13 LSU. I think the only reason this total is as high as it is, is because the Bulldogs come in averaging 42.8 ppg and have scored at least 38 in every game they have played.
The thing that people don't take into account is the level of defenses that they have played. The best defense they have played is South Carolina, who doesn't rank in the Top 50 in total defense and is 98th vs the run (194 ypg).
This LSU defense is the real deal. They completely shutdown both Miami and Auburn and while they gave up 27 to Florida last week, 7 of those were a result of interception that was returned for a TD by the Gators defense. That was also on the road.
Tiger Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the country, especially when LSU is playing well and there's a big time opponent coming to town. I expect them to give this Georgia offense fits and both teams here figure to have a hard time reaching 24 points. Give me the UNDER 51!
|10-11-18||Eagles v. Giants OVER 43.5||34-13||Win||100||9 h 11 m||Show|
40* EAGLES/GIANTS TNF TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 43.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 43.5. I just don’t think the books adjust the numbers enough for these Thursday Night games with teams playing on short rest. Defense is all about effort an energy. The players simply don’t have enough time to recover with just 3 days between games. The OVER is 3-1 in Thursday games this season with teams playing on short rest and the only exceptions was the Jets/Browns, who combined for 38 with a total of 39.
Whether you were a fan of Odell Beckham Jr. calling out his team or not, it seemed to have a positive impact on their play. They played their hearts out against the Panthers and while they came up short, I think it’s something they can build on. The most important thing is they got their offense going, as they racked up 31 points and 432 total yards on a very good Carolina defense, who keep in mind had a huge edge coming off their bye.
Philadelphia’s defense just hasn’t been the same dominant unit this year. Kirk Cousins just completed 30 of 37 attempts for 301 yards and the week before Marcus Mariota went 30 of 43 for 344 yards. In Week 2, Ryan Fitzpatrick was 27 of 33 for 402 yards. Eli Manning is coming off a 326-yard performance against the Panthers and should light up the boxscore in this one.
As for the Eagles offense, I think we are dangerously close to Philadelphia exploding on that side of the ball. Carson Wentz is getting better and better and has thrown for 659 yards and 4 scores (0 interceptions) in his last two starts. The Eagles had two fumbles in Minnesota territory last week, including one inside the 10-yard line. It’s only a matter a time before the breaks go their way.
I know the Giants come into this game with the 8th ranked pass defense, giving up just 229.4 ypg, but that number is skewed a bit because of the two teams against Blake Bortles and Dak Prescott. Desean Watson carved up this secondary for 368 yards in Week 3 and I think Wentz exploits a tired Giants defense on Thursday. It’s also worth noting that with the way the Eagles are struggling to run the football, they got no choice but to air it out, which definitely plays into the game going OVER.
Simply put, I think we are seeing a big overreaction to how these two offenses have struggled early on. All we need is for something like 24-21 to cash a winning ticket and it’s worth noting that in the last 5 meetings between these two teams, they have combined for at least 43 points with 4 of the 5 eclipsing 50 points. Give me the OVER 43.5!
|10-11-18||Texas Tech v. TCU UNDER 61||Top||17-14||Win||100||9 h 31 m||Show|
50* TEXAS TECH/TCU BIG 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 61)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 61 in Thursday's Big 12 clash between Texas Tech and TCU. I just think the public can’t help themselves when it comes to playing the OVER in games involving Texas Tech. So far it’s paid off great, as the OVER is 4-1 in the Red Raiders’ first 5 games. However, I believe the books know that’s where the money is going to come in and have inflated this number quite a bit.
Last year TCU went on the road and beat Texas Tech 27-3 for a combined score of just 30 points, which was well below the posted total for that matchup of 54. The year before that we saw a ridiculous total of 87.5 and the game ended up 27-24 for a total of just 51.
I think it’s going to be the same old story in this one. This high-powered Texas Tech offense will be up against one of the best defenses in the country. TCU ranks 35th against the run (125.6 ypg) and are 23rd vs the pass (178.0 ypg). Gary Patterson knows how to slow down this Red Raiders attack and he’s had nearly two weeks to get his defense prepared. I also think the game being played at home is huge for TCU’s defense, as they should be able to feed off the crowd.
We also don’t know who is going to be at quarterback for the Red Raiders. Week 1 starter McLane Carter is questionable with an ankle injury and his replacement, Alan Bowman is doubtful after suffering a collapsed lung against West Virginia. I believe they end up going with Jett Duffey, who replaced Bowman vs West Virginia. I think that's going to be a problem for Texas Tech. Duffey is a much bigger threat with his legs than his arm and has already thrown 3 interceptions on just 36 attempts.
TCU is also dealing with an injury to their starting quarterback, as Shawn Robinson hurt his non-throwing shoulder in the final minutes against Iowa State. Patterson has said he will be available, but may not start. Regardless of who starts, the Horned Frogs are built to run the football and one of the reasons they were able to hold Texas Tech to just 3-points last year in Lubbock, is they ran it so effectively. TCU had 204 rushing yards compared to just 85 passing (only attempted 17 passes). Patterson knows that the best way to slow down this Red Raiders offense is to keep them on the sidelines.
It’s also worth noting the UNDER is 21-6 in the Horned Frogs last 27 conference games, 11-4 in their last 15 overall and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 off a bye. UNDER is also 4-1 in Texas Tech’s last 5 road games and 4-1 in their last 5 vs conference foes. Give me the UNDER 61!
|10-08-18||Redskins v. Saints UNDER 52.5||Top||19-43||Loss||-110||9 h 57 m||Show|
50* SAINTS/REDSKINS MNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 52.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 52.5 on the total. I think a lot of people are going to see that games involving the Saints this year have seen an average score of 64.4 ppg and the fact that these two combined for 65 points in last year’s meeting in New Orleans and just assume this thing is going to fly over the total.
Last year’s outcome was a bit of a fluke in terms of how many points were scored. The two teams were sitting on 40 midway through the 4th quarter. That was also late in the year with the Redskins dealing with some big injuries on the defensive side of the ball.
With Alex Smith replacing Kirk Cousins, the Redskins are much more balanced and conservative offense than the previous versions under Cousins who really relied on an aggressive passing attack. The numbers back this up, as Washington finished 28th in the league in rushing last year at 90.5 ypg. While it’s still really early, they are sitting 5th in the NFL in rushing in 2018 at 137.7 ypg. When your attack is built around the ground game, you typically see a lot longer possessions and it also keeps the defense fresh.
Speaking of the Redskins defense, Washington comes into this game ranked 7th in the NFL against the run (90.7 ypg) and 3rd agains the pass (187.3 ypg). They held Andrew Luck and the Colts to just 21 points and Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to only 17, so there’s a good chance this defense continues to shine.
As far as the Saints offense is concerned, their numbers are inflated quite a bit due to the fact that they got to play an atrocious Bucs defense and a depleted Falcons defense. I also think they are going to focus even more on the running game now that Mark Ingram is back from his 4-game suspension. I also think those struggles in the redzone that popped up last week against the Giants could play a big role in this thing staying under the mark. Give me the UNDER 52.5!
|09-29-18||South Carolina v. Kentucky UNDER 52||10-24||Win||100||29 h 43 m||Show|
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 52)
I'll take my chances with this one staying UNDER the mark set by the books. This just hasn't been a high-scoring series of late. The most these two teams have combined for over the last 3 seasons is 48 points and the last two matchups have seen a combined 27 and 36 points. Given how strong these two teams are on that side of the ball and how big this game is for both teams, I just don't see a shootout taking place.
Kentucky's defense has been outstanding to start the year. They come in ranked 11th in the country in total defense, allowing just 279 yards/game. They are giving up just 4.4 yards/play and rank inside the Top 50 agains both the run (21st) and pass (31st). I just don't think people realize how good that Mississippi State offense is and how impressive it was for the Wildcats to hold them to just 201 total yards.
South Carolina's defense isn't too far behind. The Gamecocks are 33rd in the country, giving up just 332 yards/game. That's with one of their games coming against an elite Georgia offense. They held Coastal Carolina to just 238 total yards and last week limited the Commodores to just 284 on the road.
The other key thing with the defenses is both are great against the run and I feel both of these offenses need to be able to run the football to have success. Kentucky is allowing just 106 rushing yards/game and giving up a mere 3.6 yards/carry against teams that average 5.2. South Carolina is allowing 3.9 yards/carry vs teams averaging 5.5.
The Wildcats are 11th in the country in rushing (269 ypg) and just 117th in passing (158.3 ypg), so it's going to be tough sledding for them in this one. The Gamecocks got a good quarterback in Jake Bentley, but when Georgia limited them to a mere 54 yards rushing, they only managed 17 points.
UNDER is 5-0 in South Carolina's last 5 road games vs a team with a winning road record and 15-5 in their last 20 conference games overall. UNDER is also 6-0 in the Wildcats last 6 home games vs a team with a winning road record. Give me the UNDER 50.5!
|09-27-18||Vikings v. Rams OVER 49||Top||31-38||Win||100||21 h 44 m||Show|
50* RAMS/VIKINGS VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 49)
I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 49 in Thursday's NFL showdown between the Vikings and Rams. I know last week’s Thursday night game was a defensive battle between the Jets and Browns, but it still came within 1-point of going OVER the total. These Thursday night games are typically higher scoring. Not only do teams have just 3 days to prepare, but their bodies only get 3 days to recover. Defense is all about energy and effort and players just aren’t flying around the field like they would be on normal rest.
It also helps having one of the best offensive teams in the league playing. The Rams are making it look easy on the offensive side of the ball and as good as the Vikings are defensively, I don’t see them slowing down this attack, especially on the road. Not to mention, I think Los Angeles will be out to send a message against this Minnesota defense that held them to just 7 points last year. Reminds me a lot of their second meeting against the Seahawks last year. The Rams scored just 10-points in a loss at home to Seattle in Week 5, only to put up 42 on them in Week 15.
The Vikings defense will be without stud defensive end Everson Griffen and that's a huge loss for that stop unit against an elite offense.
As for Minnesota’s offense against the Rams defense. As bad as the Vikings looked offensively in that game against the Bills, that’s as bad as you will see them play on that side of the ball, probably the rest of the year. We also saw Los Angeles not look nearly as good on defense in their step up in competition after facing the Raiders and Cardinals the first two weeks. Philip Rivers threw for 2 scores and Melvin Gordon Rushed for 80 yards on just 15 carries, as the Charges amassed 356 yards.
The Rams are also dealing with some big injuries right now. Both Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib had to leave the game against the Chargers with ankle injuries. Both are out for this one and they will also be without linebacker Mark Barron. Kirk Cousins should be able to pick up big yards down the field and the Vikings will likely be forced to push the ball to try and keep pace with that Rams offense.
OVER is 30-15 in the Vikings last 45 games vs excellent passing teams that average 7.5+ yards per pass attempt and 13-3 in their last 16 road games vs elite teams that come in outscoring their opponents by 10+ points/game. Give me the OVER 49!
|09-24-18||Steelers v. Bucs OVER 53.5||30-27||Win||100||56 h 60 m||Show|
40* STEELERS/BUCS MNF NO-BRAINER (Over 53.5)
I'll gladly take my chances with the Steelers and Bucs going OVER the total set by the books. I just don’t think the total is high enough with the talent these two teams have on the offensive side of the ball and how bad they are on the defensive side of the ball. I look for both teams to score early and often and there figures to be a lot of explosive plays from both sides that lead to some quick scores.
Pittsburgh’s defense just hasn’t been the same since Ryan Shazier went down last season. They held the Browns to 21-points, but Cleveland’s offense was anemic with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. We saw just how much better the Browns offense was when Baker Mayfield took over for him in Thursday’s win over the Jets. After watching Mahomes and the Chiefs do whatever they wanted against the Steelers in Week 2, I don’t know how they are going to contain this Tampa Bay offense.
Chances are Fitzpatrick won’t be able to sustain this ridiculous play the entire season, but right now he’s playing at an elite level and you have to just assume with the weapons he has that it’s going to last at least a few more weeks.
What often gets overlooked when a team is putting up big numbers and winning games, is the play of the defense and Tampa Bay is lucky the offense has been clicking. They gave up almost 500 yards to the Saints in Week 1 and over 400 yards to an Eagles offense that had looked atrocious with Foles at quarterback this season. Roethlisberger and that Steelers offense is going to have their way in this one.
Adding to all of this is a great system in play. The OVER is 28-8 going all the way back to 1983 when you have a home team with a line of +3 to -3 that has allowed 99 or fewer rushing yards in 2 straight games against an opponent that had 50 or fewer rushing yards in their last game. That’s a 78% system in favor of the OVER. Give me the OVER 53.5!
|09-22-18||Texas A&M v. Alabama OVER 60.5||23-45||Win||100||23 h 47 m||Show|
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 60.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER in Saturday's SEC clash between Alabama and Texas A&M. I actually think there’s a ton of value on the total, as I think this game easily gets into the 70’s.
I was on the OVER 70 last week in the Alabama/Ole Miss game. The game finished with 69 points, despite being halfway to the total at the end of the 1st quarter (28-7) and 56 at the half (49-7). I’m still shocked that the Rebels were completely shutdown after scoring on their first drive. Either way, it’s not keeping me from taking the OVER in this one.
I’m confident this is going to end up being the most prolific offense of the Nick Saban era. Alabama currently leads the country at 56.7 ppg. The rushing numbers (236.7 ypg) are on par with previous Crimson Tide teams, but the passing attack (308 ypg) is on a whole different level. The previous high for passing yards over the last 3 seasons is 227 ypg. It’s also worth noting that Alabama has scored just 17 points (1 score each game) in the 4th quarter of their 3 games combined, as they have had to call off the dogs.
All of this is a result of the play of sophomore quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who I think has already locked the Heisman Trophy up. I got a lot of respect for Jimbo Fisher, but that Texas A&M defense isn’t going to stop this Alabama attack from putting up a big number.
The key here is that unlike Ole Miss, I believe the Aggies can score more than 7 points against this Crimson Tide defense. In fact, I think they can score into the 20’s. We already saw Texas A&M score 26 against an elite Clemson defense earlier this season. They could have well into the 30’s as they missed two field goals and fumbled twice inside the Tigers 30-yard line. Despite all those missed opportunities (Clemson also fumbled on the Aggies 1-yard line), that game against Clemson saw a combined 54 points. That game could have easily had 70-plus points. Give me the OVER 60.5!