Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-21-19 | Jazz v. Hawks +8 | Top | 114-117 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
Early ATS Smash - Rickenbach NBA Game #586 Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) vs Utah Jazz @ 7:35 ET - The Hawks are off back to back losses (SU and ATS). However, Atlanta previously was on an 11-3 ATS run. Also, though the Hawks have lost 3 straight games SU, that included match-ups with the Celtics and Rockets. Of course the Jazz also fall into the "quality team" category but I like the fact that Atlanta is at home and catching Utah in the 2nd game of a back to back. Getting 8 points with the Hawks in a spot like this is a great value. The Jazz are on a 5-game winning streak both SU and ATS but are still just 3-8 ATS when they enter a game on a SU winning streak of 3 or more games. In other words, don't be surprised when their 5-game run comes to an end tonight (at least ATS). Look for the Hawks to improve to 11-6 ATS this season when they enter a game on a losing streak (SU) of 3 or more games. 10* ATLANTA |
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03-21-19 | Florida v. Nevada -2.5 | Top | 70-61 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #778 Thursday 10* Top Play Nevada Wolf Pack (-) vs Florida Gators @ 6:50 ET - The Gators are a popular choice for many due to having faced the tougher schedule this season since they come from the SEC. In typical contrarian fashion for me I am backing the Wolf Pack in this spot! The fact is that Nevada is a high-quality team and their weakness (depth/bench) won't be an issue here since they've had plenty of time off leading into this game. In fact, the Wolf Pack are 14-0 SU (11-2-1 ATS) the last 14 times they've entered a game with 5 or 6 days of rest between games. While Nevada has played an easier schedule than Florida one has to give them credit for their consistency and this Wolf Pack team has veteran players and Big Dance experience. They certainly won't be "star struck" by facing an SEC team on this stage. The Wolf Pack had one inexcusable performance (a loss to New Mexico) this season. Their other losses were to Utah State (28 wins) and San Diego State (21 wins). The Aztecs actually took 2 out of 3 from the Wolf Pack but Nevada's two losses to San Diego State were both by single digits while their win was by 28 points! Similarly, the Wolf Pack lost to the Aggies by just 5 points but their win over them came by 23 points! Nevada averages 80.7 points a game and certainly the Gators are an offensively challenged team. This game may be tight for awhile but eventually the Wolf Pack pull away and, with a small line on this game, that should translate to an easy cover. Florida is 6-18 SU (and 8-16 ATS) the last 24 times they've been an underdog. The Wolf Pack are 11-0 SU (and 8-2-1 ATS) when off a conference loss. 10* NEVADA |
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03-21-19 | Vermont v. Florida State -8.5 | 69-76 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #764 Thursday 8* Florida State Seminoles (-) vs Vermont Catamounts @ 2 ET - This line was as high as an 11.5 and is now as low as an 8.5 as of game day morning. I am happy to lay this number with the much superior and more battle-tested team. As you would expect, FSU has played a much tougher schedule than Vermont has. Also, the Catamounts come of out of the America East and have the full attention of the Seminoles after UMBC upset Virginia in last year's tournament. Vermont is getting a lot of positive play here from the betting markets as a result but lets not forget this team lost 4 of its top 7 scorers from last season. Now they're only getting single digits against an FSU team that reached the Elite Eight last season and knocked off top-seeded Gonzaga by a 15-point margin as part of their run. The Seminoles are loaded with talent and have great length and athleticism. The Catamounts simply don't match up well here and are not as experienced as last season's team. Florida State takes advantage. The Noles are 15-5 ATS the past few seasons, including 7-1 ATS this season, when facing a team that allows 64 points or less per game. Vermont is 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record. Also, the Catamounts are a long-term 1-3 ATS when they are a neutral court underdog in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. 8* FLORIDA STATE |
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03-21-19 | Minnesota +5.5 v. Louisville | 86-76 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #773 Thursday 8* Minnesota Golden Gophers (+) vs Louisville Cardinals @ 12:15 ET - What is fresh in the minds of many is the blowout loss that Minnesota suffered against Michigan in the Big Ten tournament. However, the Golden Gophers had won 4 of their 5 prior games. As for Louisville, they enter this match-up having won just 3 of their past 10 games. Also, even if the Cardinals find a way to win this game it is tough to cover spreads when you're not shooting the ball well. Louisville has been held to 41.7% or less from the field in 8 of their last 9 games. The Cardinals were held to 35.2% or less in 4 of those 8 games! Look for Minnesota to be a very "live dog" here and note that each of the aforementioned 4 wins did come when the Golden Gophers were an underdog. In fact, Minny has been a dog in 8 straight games and 12 of their last 13 so it is role they are certainly use to. Of course there is also the entire "Pitino Connection" that surrounds this match-up as well. Certainly the added motivation for the Golden Gophers only helps our cause here and, about that ugly loss to the Wolverines last week, note that Minny is 8-4 ATS this season when off a SU loss. Look for Louisville to drop to 5-10 ATS their last 15 neutral court games. 8* MINNESOTA |
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03-20-19 | Arizona State v. St. John's +2.5 | Top | 74-65 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
First Four Top Game - Rickenbach CBB Game #714 Wednesday 10* Top Play St John's Red Storm (+) vs Arizona State Sun Devils @ 9:10 ET - Long-term the Sun Devils are 5-9 SU and 4-8 ATS in games against teams from the Big East Conference. Also, the Pac-12 certainly was not overly impressive this season. Arizona State finished the season stronger than St John's did as the Sun Devils won 6 of their last 8 games while the Red Storm lost 4 of their last 5 games. However, when it is a "win to get in" situation, things can change in a hurry. In other words, don't be surprised when the Red Storm really raises their level of play on the defensive end in this one. Prior to an ugly loss to Xavier in their final game of February, St John's held their 6 prior opponents to an average of 40% from the field and none of those 6 shot better than 43% from the field. The Sun Devils enter this game having allowed 45% from the field over their last 7 games away from home. Arizona State beat the Red Storm when they most recently met two years ago but St John's had 9 more shots from the field but had a rare poor shooting night while the Sun Devils shot well in that match-up. The recent trending of these two teams as well as the ASU win in their most recent meeting is resulting in too much respect being given to the Sun Devils here. Grab the value with the hungry dog and, keep in mind, you hear a lot about St John's Shamorie Ponds but when Mustapha Herron plays 27 minutes or more (and he is healthier again), the Red Storm have won 4 of their last 6 games. Herron averaged 22 points per game in the 3 most recent of those 4 wins. Look for him to come up big here while Ponds and LJ Figueroa also have big games to lead the way to an "upset" here. 10* ST JOHN'S |
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03-20-19 | Celtics v. 76ers -2.5 | Top | 115-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Atlantic Division #1 Top Game - Rickenbach NBA Game #568 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers purposely rested Joel Embiid last night in their win at Charlotte so he would be ready for this huge match-up tonight as the Sixers host the Celtics. The very first number that popped up offshore on this one had Philly -4.5 but the line has dropped down to as low as a -2.5 as of early game day morning. This is offering great line value on a Philadelphia team that has an extreme hunger about them when it comes to knocking off Boston here. Not only are the Celtics long-time rivals, not only did Boston knock the 76ers out of the post-season last spring, the C's also have won all 3 meeting this season! To say that Philadelphia "owes them one" is a colossal understatement. The fact is the Sixers owe them plenty and with Boston off a loss and having lost 7 of their last 13 games, the timing is perfect here. The Celtics games against quality opponents (Denver, Clippers, Golden State, Houston, Portland, Toronto, Milwaukee) have seen them go 1-6 SU since the All-Star break. In other words, with the exception of beating the Warriors, the only wins that Boston has been getting since the All Star break have come against weak foes. Also, the Celtics last 6 losses have come by an average margin of 14 points so the spread should not be an issue here. As for the 76ers, they have won 5 straight games. Also, the Sixers have won 14 of their last 20 home games. When playing with home loss revenge Philly is 37-17 ATS including 6-1 ATS this season. The Celtics have covered just 6 of their last 18 road games. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-20-19 | North Carolina Central v. North Dakota State -5 | 74-78 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #716 Wednesday 8* North Dakota State Bison (-) vs North Carolina Central Eagles @ 6:40 ET - Big difference in the level of competition that these two teams have faced this season. Additionally, though the Eagles have a strong big man in Raasean Davis, the Bison hold a huge edge in the backcourt. Also, North Dakota State's two forwards that see plenty of minutes will be able to keep Davis from completely taking over the game. That said, what will become key in this match-up is the backcourt edge the Bison have. ND St holds the rest edge in this match-up and the Bison have gone 5-0 SU and 4-0 ATS when they enter a game with rest of 7 or more days between games. North Carolina Central has 15 losses this season and 12 of the 15 have come by 9 or more points. In other words, when the Eagles get beat it is almost always by a sizable margin. Also, when NCC has been a dog of 5 or more points season, they've gone 0-7 SU and 6 of those 7 losses have come by a margin of 9 or more points. The Eagles are a sizable dog here for a reason and the team that has faced the much tougher competition this season will rise to the top before this one is all said and done. I would not be surprised to see a bit of a sluggish first half for the Bison here but eventually I expect their fresher legs and superior talent to lead to a win by a double digit margin. 13 of ND State's 18 wins this season have come by a margin of 6 or more points. 8* NORTH DAKOTA STATE |
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03-19-19 | Belmont v. Temple +3.5 | Top | 81-70 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #672 Tuesday 10* Top Play Temple Owls (+) vs Belmont Bruins @ 9:10 ET - The Bruins have the better record and the betting markets strongly favor them in this match-up. Of course you know what that usually means! The fact is that the first number that popped up off-shore on this game had the line at very nearly a pick'em. Now it has been driven all the way up to a -3.5 on Belmont! This is offering tremendous underdog line value to a Temple team that has a long-time veteran coach (Fran Dunphy) and that has played a much tougher schedule this season than the Bruins. Yes Belmont has a very high-scoring offense but keep in mind the competition that they faced. Also, the Owls are 16-6 ATS their last 22 games against teams that average 77 points or more per game! The Bruins are 3-6 ATS their last 9 tournament games. Specific to the NCAA Tourney Belmont is a long-term 0-7 SU (2-5 ATS). The Bruins are a long-term 1-3 ATS when they are a neutral court favorite in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. Temple is on a 7-3 ATS run in games with a posted total in the 150s. Additionally, the Owls went 4-0 SU in games with a posted total in the 150s this season. They will call this one an upset when it goes into the books but truly the earliest of the first numbers posted on this game (right around a pick'em) had it right! Grab the extra value of the points but we should not need them. 10* TEMPLE |
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03-19-19 | 76ers -1 v. Hornets | Top | 118-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #551 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers have Boston on deck and also will be resting Joel Embiid tonight. As a result, many will be looking the way of the Hornets in this one tonight. However, Charlotte is 0-9 SU in their last 9 games against the Sixers. Also, the Hornets play in the weakest division in the NBA. Even though Charlotte fell short at Miami Saturday, they are still 10-5 against Southeast Division opponents. That means that the Hornets are a horrible 21-33 against the rest of the league! They now host a Sixers team that is 45-25 on the season! Also, Philly is 8-1 SU its last 9 versus teams with a losing record. The Hornets are 3-10 SU their last 13 versus teams with a winning record. Charlotte is also a long-term 14-36 ATS (16-34 SU) against Atlantic Division opponents. The Hornets enter this game on a 4-10 SU run and 3-11 ATS run. Also, even though Philly has the Celtics on deck, they are well aware of the fact that they are in a huge battle with the Indiana and Boston in terms of the 3,4,5 seeding in the Eastern Conference. Dropping to 5th means no home court edge in the opening series. In other words, with just a dozen regular season games left, every W counts. Look for the 76ers to get this W against an out-classed Charlotte team as the Sixers make it 10 in a row over the Hornets. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-19-19 | Fairleigh Dickinson -1.5 v. Prairie View A&M | 82-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #669 Tuesday 8* Fairleigh Dickinson Knights vs Prairie View A & M Panthers @ 6:40 ET - The Panthers have 11 games in a row. Over that same stretch the Knights are 9-2 SU. The odds makers must have made an egregious error here since they made Fairleigh Dickinson the favorite, right? Of course long-time followers know how I feel about that and, the fact is, it is with good reason that Prairie View A & M is the underdog in this match-up. Though the Panthers are solid in the backcourt their weakness is in the frontcourt. Look for the Knights to hold an edge on the glass in this one. Also, the Panthers went 2-7 ATS this season in non-conference games while the Knights went 6-3 ATS in their non-conference games this season. The Panthers are 2-8 ATS (including 1-5 ATS this season) when off a game in which they allowed 80 or more points. The Knights are an incredible 13-2 ATS (including 6-0 ATS in recent seasons) in games played in the month of March. 8* FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON |
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03-18-19 | Nuggets +3.5 v. Celtics | Top | 114-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #537 Monday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:35 ET - Many believe the Western Conference is better than the Eastern Conference and it has been that way for many consecutive seasons. I feel we're getting great value here with a high-quality Nuggets team as a sizable underdog here. The Celtics are 10-17 ATS against the West this season. Denver enters this game having gone 16-8 SU against the East this season. Also, the Nuggets are 14-8 ATS (15-7 SU) this season when they enter a game on a winning streak of 3 or more consecutive games. Boston is a long-term 11-20 ATS in home games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Celtics are 3-8 ATS the last 11 times they've allowed 115 points or more. Boston got the sweep last season (but only by a combined margin of 7 points) and the Nuggets are looking to return the favor this season after already winning at home by 8 points earlier in the season. Based on the above trends, the situational value here, and the fact the Celtics are a little banged up, don't be surprised if the road dog wins this one outright. Grab the points! 10* DENVER |
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03-17-19 | 76ers +6.5 v. Bucks | Top | 130-125 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Game #521 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 3:35 ET - Not only is Philadelphia 10-5 SU their last 15 games, 3 of the 5 losses came by 3 or less points. Of course that means that at +6.5 (the current line on today's game), the 76ers would be on a 13-2 ATS run. Certainly Milwaukee deserves plenty of respect and the Bucks are at home here. However, there isn't nearly enough respect being given to a Sixers team that is viewing this game as a chance to prove themselves against one of the best teams in the league. The Bucks have covered each of their last two home games but prior to that they were on an 0-3 ATS run in home games. Keep in mind, Milwaukee just returned from a 3-game road trip too. Conversely, Philly has won 3 straight games and has been enjoying the comforts of home. The 76ers have revenge from a loss by a double digit margin at Milwaukee in their first meeting this season. Philadelphia is a much different team now than they were then when these teams met in late October. Keep in mind the Bucks were only favored by 5 in that game. Now they are favored by 6.5 even though the Sixers now have Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris. You can see why the Sixers are offering great value here. Also, Philly is 38-18 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season. The Sixers are also 57-30 ATS when coming off a non-conference game. The Bucks are 2-6 ATS in a home game with a posted total of 230 points or more. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-17-19 | Cincinnati +5.5 v. Houston | Top | 69-57 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #653 Sunday 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bearcats (-) vs Houston Cougars @ 3:15 ET - This line opened up at a -4 on Houston and has been bet up to a -5.5 as of early Sunday morning. Of course the public remembers that Houston has beaten Cincinnati in both meetings this season. However, not only is it tough to win 3 straight over a conference rival in the same season, there is also the matter of the point spread here as well. The Cougars blew the cover against Memphis yesterday and the same thing is absolutely possible here as the Bearcats come into this game rolling with confidence and fully capable of an outright upset. That said, if Cincinnati does fall short of the upset bid I fully expect the defeat to be by a margin of just a single possession. The Bearcats most recent loss was an ugly one versus Houston but 2 of Cincinnati's 3 prior losses came by 3 or less points. The average margin of defeat in the Bearcats 3 prior losses was just 4 points. Cincinnati had 13 more field goal attempts than Houston in the first meeting this season. The Bearcats simply had an awful shooting performance. In the 2nd meeting the Cougars made a ridiculous 12 of 23 three pointers. That resulted in Houston having 18 more points from beyond the arc and that certainly was the key difference in the 16-point victory. The Bearcats have a history of getting to the line much more than the Cougars in their match-ups with an edge of 122 to 69 in free throw attempts in the last 5 meetings. Don't be surprised when the Bearcats gut out an upset win here with the charity stripe also being an edge. 10* CINCINNATI |
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03-16-19 | Suns +2.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 138-136 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Saturday 10* Top Play Phoenix Suns (+) @ New Orleans Pelicans @ 7:05 ET - The Pelicans have a winning record at home this season. The Suns are 6-30 on the road this season. So when this line opened up at nearly a pick'em, it comes as no surprise that everyone jumped all over New Orleans in this game and drove the line to as high as a -3 on the Pelicans. However, do you think the odds makers are fools? They knew what they were doing here! Anthony Davis (rest) and Jrue Holiday (abdominal) are listed as out for this game. Also, the Pelicans have lost 5 straight games overall and also 5 straight home games. The Suns have been playing better of late as they've actually won 5 of their last 9 games overall. Also, Phoenix is on a perfect 4-0 ATS run in road games and 2 of those wins were outright upset wins. Ride the hot team (Phoenix) in this one as they improve to 8-4 ATS this season when playing the 2nd game of a back to back. In the process, the Suns will drop New Orleans to 3-10 SU this season when playing the 2nd game of a back to back. 10* PHOENIX |
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03-16-19 | Memphis +8.5 v. Houston | Top | 58-61 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
AAC #1 Top Game - Rickenbach CBB Game #617 Saturday 10* Top Play Memphis Tigers (+) vs Houston Cougars @ 3 ET - I used the Tigers yesterday and they blasted a respectable Central Florida team. The Cougars are also off an impressive win but it came against a Huskies team that had a down season. I like this senior-laden Memphis team to give Houston all they can handle here. That said, we've got great line value with the points being offered. This one opened up at a 7.5 but is up to an 8.5 as of early this morning. The Tigers lost by double digits at Houston earlier this season but they've been playing much better on defense of late compared to how they were playing on that end of the floor in early January when they faced the Cougars. Memphis has held five straight opponents to 39.1% or less from the field. The Tigers held those 5 opponents to an average of 66 points per game and, keep in mind, Memphis is averaging a solid 81 points per game on the other end of the floor. The point is that the Tigers are currently getting the job done on both ends of the floor. Memphis is 7-2 ATS this season in games with a posted total in the 140s. Also, the Tigers are 8-4 ATS in Saturday games this season. I look for Houston's record to drop to 3-6 ATS the last 9 times they've played a neutral court game with a posted total between 145 and 149.5 points. 10* MEMPHIS |
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03-16-19 | Wisconsin +6.5 v. Michigan State | 55-67 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #605 Saturday 8* Wisconsin Badgers (+) vs Michigan State Spartans @ 1 ET - Of course the Spartans have had the Badgers number but do you think the odds makers aren't aware of that as well? This line has gone from an opener of 4.5 to as high as a 6.5 as of early Saturday morning and I am grabbing the valuable points here. In what should be a defensive-minded grinder, I expect having the dog getting generous points will prove to be the value play. The Badgers are 5-1 ATS (and SU!) this season when playing with home loss revenge. In that home loss earlier last month Wisconsin only made 5 of 12 from the free throw line and just 6 of 20 from beyond the arc. Those two factors, of course, were keys in the 8 point loss. The Badgers are on a 10-4 ATS run in March games. Michigan State dropped to 1-4 ATS their last 5 conference tournament games with their non-covering win versus Ohio State yesterday. 8* WISCONSIN |
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03-15-19 | Kings v. 76ers -9 | Top | 114-123 | Push | 0 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #574 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Sacramento Kings @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers have revenge from a loss at Sacramento earlier this season and, keep in mind, the Kings did sweep Philly last season. It is definitely payback time here and the Sixers are catching Sacramento at the right time to exact revenge. The Kings are off a hard-fought loss at Boston last night. Note that the Kings are an ugly 2-8 ATS this season when playing the 2nd game of a back to back. Also, the Sixers SU and ATS loss at Sacramento early last month certainly appears to be an aberration. The 76ers are a fantastic 7-1 SU and ATS in their other 8 games against Pacific Division opponents this season. Philly's Ben Simmons has been upgraded to probable for this game as well and a double digit victory is in the forecast here. The Sixers playing with 2 days of rest between games while the Kings are in a back to back. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-15-19 | Auburn -8 v. South Carolina | Top | 73-64 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
SEC #1 Top Game - Rickenbach CBB Game #817 Friday 10* Top Play Auburn Tigers (-) vs South Carolina Gameocks @ 3:30 ET - The Tigers lost their match-up at South Carolina in the regular season. In that match-up the Gamecocks Chris Silva had a season high 32 points and made 11 of 12 from the field. The rest of the team made only 19 of 52 attempts from the field. Also, the fact that game was at home also makes a difference. Though Silva had a big game in his road finale too, his 8 prior games away from home saw him average only 10.1 points per game. As you can see he is much more likely to be closer to 10 points in this game than the 32 he scored in the first meeting. Yes, the Gamecocks ended up being the higher seed in the SEC Tourney but the Tigers are the ranked team and for good reason. I look for them to blast South Carolina in the rematch. The Gamecocks have been held to 40% or less from the field in 4 of their last 5 games. The Tigers have shot over 45.2% in 4 of their last 5 games. Look for Auburn to have their physicality on the increase throughout this tourney and they showed that in their win over Missouri yesterday. The Tigers know they need that again here against Silva and Company and I expect it to be on full display as they get payback big here! The Gamecocks have a strong ATS streak against the Tigers but it ends here. Auburn is the much better team this season and the first game was truly an aberration. The Tigers are on an 11-6 ATS run when playing with road loss revenge. South Carolina is 14-25 when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest between games. That is a long-term trend but the point is that oftentimes it proves better for momentum if you keep playing and sometimes rest leads to rust. The fact that Auburn was in action yesterday arguably could end up giving them the edge in this rematch with the rusty Gamecocks. 10* AUBURN |
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03-15-19 | Memphis +3 v. UCF | 79-55 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #793 Friday 8* Memphis Tigers (+) vs Central Florida Knights @ 2:30 ET - Two years ago the Tigers didn't just lose to the Knights in the conference tourney, they got blasted by a 30 point margin. How unlikely was that? Memphis was an underdog in the same range (2.5 to 3) as they are for this game. In other words, it was totally unexpected. This is the Tigers first chance for conference tourney revenge since that ugly defeat. This season Memphis and UCF split their games. However, the Knights won their match-up at home by 7 points thanks to outscoring the Tigers by 12 points at the free throw line. Memphis won their home game by 20 points and each team got to the line an equivalent 14 times in that game. In other words, the Tigers truly held the upper hand in the two meetings between these teams this season but the line does not reflect that. As a result, I am happy to grab the significant underdog value being offered in this one. Memphis is 6-2 ATS this season in games in which the posted total is in the 140s. Central Florida, when facing a team that averages 77 points or more and past the midway point of a season, has gone an ugly 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS! Look for the senior-laden Tigers to hold the edge here as their offensive firepower and experience proves to be too much in this one. 8* MEMPHIS |
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03-14-19 | Creighton v. Xavier +2.5 | 61-63 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #684 Thursday 8* Xavier Musketeers (+) vs Creighton Bluejays @ 2:30 ET - The earliest line on this game yesterday was a -1 on Creighton. The Bluejays have since risen to as high as a 3-point favorite in this one. I'll gladly fade this move. Both these teams enter on hot streaks but this is another match-up where I like the difference in terms of recent play on defense. Xavier is 6-1 SU and ATS their last 7 games and the Musketeers have allowed approximately 40% from the field in those 7 games. Creighton enters this game on a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS run their last 5 games but the Bluejays have allowed approximately 45% from the field in their last 6 games. Another key to the value here is that the Musketeers Naji Marshall has been upgraded to probable for this game. The Bluejays are playing this game with road loss revenge but that is a situation that has seen Creighton go 1-5 SU and ATS this season! The Musketeers are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these teams. That stretch includes a SU loss but ATS cover in the 2017 Big East tournament and now Xavier gets their shot at tourney revenge. I fully expect them to take advantage of it. 8* XAVIER |
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03-13-19 | Miami-FL +7.5 v. Virginia Tech | 56-71 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #623 Wednesday 8* Miami Hurricanes (+) vs Virginia Tech Hokies @ 2:30 ET - Of course the Hokies have the advantage of being rested while the Hurricanes are in a back to back spot after beating Wake Forest yesterday. However, lets not forget the impact of Justin Robinson's foot injury for the Hokies. The Virginia Tech senior guard, prior to his injury, scored 17 points in just 19 minutes in the first meeting with Miami. He has been out since then and, prior to their season finale (also against Miami), the Hokies had won just 5 of 9 games with the 4 most recent of those victories all coming by a single digit margin. Yes, I know the Hokies beat the Canes by a double digit margin in the season finale but that game was at Virginia Tech and the Hurricanes went just 6 of 29 from beyond the arc while the Hokies knocked down 14 of 26 threes. Of course that means that Virginia Tech had 24 more points (in a 14 point win!) from 3-point land even though they took 3 less shots. The fact is that the Hokies are the better 3-point shooting team BUT they are not that much better! Virginia Tech simply was extra hot in their two wins over the Canes this season. However, the Hurricanes have now shot the ball quite well from beyond the arc in 6 of their last 9 games. Also, Miami had defended the 3-ball quite well in 7 of 9 games prior to the Hokies big effort against them last week. I also like the fact that the Hurricanes are 13-4 ATS this season when playing with road loss revenge. Virginia Tech is just 1-4 ATS in Wednesday games this season. Also, the Hokies are 3-8 ATS this season when off a win in conference action. 8* MIAMI |
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03-12-19 | Wake Forest v. Miami-FL -6.5 | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #602 Tuesday 8* Miami Hurricanes (-) vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ Noon ET in ACC Tournament at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, NC - This line has gone from 7.5 to 6.5 as many are finding it hard to trust the Hurricanes in this price range. However, they become a little easier to trust when you consider that Wake Forest is on a 4-14 SU run and one of those four wins was when they hosted Miami. The Canes have road loss revenge here and that is a situation that has seen Miami go 12-4 ATS in recent seasons! Also, 12 of the aforementioned 14 Demon Deacons losses have come by a margin of 8 or more points! The Hurricanes are off a loss by a double digit margin at Virginia Tech but Miami entered that game on a 6-3 ATS run. Also, 11 of the Canes 13 wins this season have come by a margin of 7 or more points. Wake Forest is a long-term 8-21 SU (and 9-20 ATS) in conference tournament games and I look for those trends to resume here as they get bounced in the first round. 8* MIAMI |
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03-11-19 | Western Michigan v. Central Michigan -9.5 | Top | 67-81 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #870 Monday 10* Top Play Central Michigan Chippewas (-) vs Western Michigan Broncos @ 7 ET - Central Michigan just played at Western Michigan Friday. Though the game was decided by a 7 point margin, the Chippewas led the game by 15 points at the half. Keep in mind, this followed a 21 point beating that the Chips put on the Broncos when they hosted them in early February. Now, in conference tournament action, the Chippewas again are the host and another beating is likely here. Central Michigan is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. Also, the Chips are 11-4 ATS this season when off a game in which they scored 80 or more points. This line dropped from an early opener of 11 down to a 9.5 as of overnight heading into Monday. Western Michigan, versus teams that average 77 points or more, has gone 2-8 ATS this season. The Broncos are a long-term 7-14 ATS in first round tournament games. Western Michigan also is a poor 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games played in the month of March. All signs point to a home blowout here. I normally don't lay big points but the edges here are too strong. Keep in mind the Chippewas won the turnover battle 20-8 when these teams met here last month! 10* CENTRAL MICHIGAN |
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03-10-19 | Pacers v. 76ers -5.5 | Top | 89-106 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #506 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Indiana Pacers @ 3:35 ET - It looks like Joel Embiid will be back for this game. Even though the Sixers got blown out by the Rockets in their most recent game they truly were done in by poor shooting. If they had just shot "normal" Philly would have won the game outright. Instead it was a blowout loss but that helps with the line value here actually. The 76ers are a very manageable favorite against a Pacers team that they blew out by 24 in the most recent meetings at Indiana. The Pacers are on a poor 3-11 ATS run in their last 14 road games. The Sixers are very hungry for a win here and will be rejuvenated by the expected return of Embiid and the fact this game is at home. Philly is off back to back losses and they are a perfect 4-0 SU when off B2B straight-up losses this season. Indeed, the 76ers have not lost 3 straight games this entire season and I don't expect that to change here. Indiana is playing this game with home loss revenge but that is a situation that has seen them go 2-5 ATS this season. The Sixers are 36-18 ATS (including 9-3 ATS this season) when off a loss by a double digit margin. Also, Philly is 74-46 ATS long-term in home games. Look for a blowout by the host in this one with a winning margin by double digits expected. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-10-19 | Houston v. Cincinnati -2 | 85-69 | Loss | -106 | 3 h 25 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #836 Sunday 8* Cincinnati Bearcats (-) vs Houston Cougars @ Noon ET - The Cougars already celebrated their big home win over SMU Thursday as that clinched them at least a share of the American Athletic Conference regular season title and #1 seed in the upcoming conference tournament. I expect Cincinnati to prove to be the hungrier team here as they can tie Houston for the regular season conference title by notching a win here. The Cougars cut the nets down at the Fertitta Center after their win over the Mustangs Thursday. The Bearcats are seeking revenge for a loss at Houston last month. Look for home court to be a huge difference-maker here. Cincinnati is 16-1 SU at home this season. The line on this game is only a -2 on the Bearcats. The fact that Houston is higher-ranked and also has the better record means they will still attract plenty of attention from the markets here and that is helping keeping this number very manageable on the Cats. Cincinnati had 13 more shots from the field in the loss at Houston earlier this season but the shots simply were not falling for the Bearcats. Look for them to fall much better on their home floor early Sunday. Cincinnati is 16-1 SU after being held to 60 points or less in a game. Also, the Bearcats long-term run at home is 49-2 SU. Houston is 0-2 ATS this month. 8* CINCINNATI |
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03-09-19 | Michigan +3.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 63-75 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
The Game of the Year - Rickenbach CBB Game #649 Saturday 10* Top Play Michigan Wolverines (+) @ Michigan State Wolverines @ 8 ET - Both teams have some injury situations but here is the key with that. The lone guy on the report for Michigan is Charles Matthews. Yes he is a starter and a solid player but he struggled and went 1 for 8 from the field with, overall, a very ugly stat line on the game, when these teams met two weeks ago in Ann Arbor. That was his 2nd straight poor game and now, without him, Michigan has won back to back games and played very well. In the loss to the Spartans two weeks ago the Wolverines actually had 10 more field goal attempts than Michigan State but were done in by some sub-par shooting and Matthews was a key contributor to that. With the Spartans currently without Joshua Langford for the season plus Nick Ward (hand) and Kyle Ahrens (back) also having issues, I would argue that the Wolverines injury situation is currently much better than that of the Spartans. At the same time, the fact this game is at Michigan State means we get additional line value as we can grab Michigan as a significant dog here. I'll gladly challenge the Spartans to win this game by more than a single possession (current line 3.5) as the fact is I expect the Wolverines to get their revenge. Michigan had won 3 straight in this series prior to the loss two weeks ago. Michigan State is on a 6-14 ATS run in Saturday games. The Spartans are on a 4-8 ATS run in March games. Michigan is on a 17-2 SU run in March games. The Wolverines also are on a sparking 14-6 ATS run as an underdog! 10* MICHIGAN |
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03-09-19 | Texas Tech v. Iowa State +2.5 | 80-73 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #628 Saturday 8* Iowa State Cyclones (+) vs Texas Tech Red Raiders @ 2 ET - This is a revenge game for the Red Raiders and Texas Tech has been the much hotter team in recent weeks in comparison with the Cyclones. Also, the Red Raiders are highly ranked. That said, the odds makers opened this line at roughly a pick'em (earliest lines that came out) and, as expected, everyone is jumping all over Texas Tech in this match-up. You know what usually happens when that happens! With that said, in typical contrarian fashion I am grabbing home dog Iowa State in this one. The Cyclones are expected to have Marial Shayok back for this game. Even if he doesn't play I look for Iowa State to get the win on their home floor for senior day. Keep in mind, Shayok is a senior. If he is able to go, he's going hard for this for senior day. If he can't go, the rest of the players go hard for the senior who could not get on the floor for this game. Even though the Cyclones have been on a bit of a downward cycle, they also know they can play spoiler here as the Red Raiders are seeking a win and hoping to secure the Big 12 regular season title. Texas Tech is 2-5 ATS (including 0-2 this season) when they're playing a game with home loss revenge. Iowa State is 12-3 SU in home games this season. Also, the Cyclones are 3-1 SU and ATS this season when they are off a game in which they allowed 80 or more points. 8* IOWA STATE |
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03-08-19 | Minnesota v. Maryland -7 | Top | 60-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #854 Friday 10* Top Play Maryland Terrapins (-) vs Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 7 ET - With the Terrapins off back to back losses and the Golden Gophers off back to back wins, the set up here is perfect. We're getting value with a number kept lower than it should be considering this is a situation where Minnesota should get blown out on the road at Maryland. The Terrapins are 6-2 ATS this season when off a SU loss. Also, Maryland has not lost 3 straight games all season. Keep in mind, the Terrapins last two games were at Penn State and then hosting Michigan. Certainly those are not easy match-ups. Also, Maryland is now hosting a Minnesota team that, prior to winning their most recent road game, had lost 6 in a row away from home. The average margin of defeat in those road losses for the Golden Gophers was 11 points! Minnesota is a long-term 18-33 ATS as road dog in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. In games with posted total ranging from 131 to 139.5 points, the Terrapins are on a sparkling 9-1 ATS run. The host in this one is the much better shooting team and also the better team defensively. Factoring all that in there is great value being offered here with this very manageable line. 10* MARYLAND |
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03-07-19 | Temple +1.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 78-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #603 Thursday 10* Top Play Temple Owls (+) @ Connecticut Huskies @ 7 ET - While it is true that the Owls have a huge game on deck, they are also well aware of the fact that the game versus Central Florida will become much less important if they don't take care of business at Connecticut. The Huskies certainly have not been the same team since Jalen Adams got hurt. UConn is coming off a win versus South Florida Sunday but that victory was preceded by 6 straight losses. Dating all the back to December 22nd, the Huskies have managed back to back wins only ONCE! You can see that, after the win over the Bulls, the odds favor a loss here versus the Owls. As for Temple, they are off a non-covering win versus Tulane. What is noteworthy about the Owls season is they have had only one standalone victory this entire season. In other words, when they get a W it is normally the beginning of a nice streak for Temple and they are hell-bent on closing the season with 3 straight victories. Before even worrying about the Saturday match-up with UCF, the Owls know they need this one. All signs point to them getting it. The Owls are 4-0 SU and ATS this season as a road dog of 3 or less points. The Huskies are 1-3 SU this season when off a game in which they scored 60 points or less. Connecticut is also 6-12 SU (and 5-13 ATS) when in that situation the last few seasons. UConn has been held to 63 points or less in 5 straight games and also managed only 63 in the first match-up with Temple this season. The Owls have scored 70 points or more in 7 of their last 8 games. 10* TEMPLE |
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03-06-19 | 76ers -5 v. Bulls | Top | 107-108 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #539 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Chicago Bulls @ 8:05 ET - Both teams in a back to back spot here. This line opened up at a -6 and dropped to a -5 on Philly. Although the Bulls have won some games recently those victories have almost all come over poor teams with losing records. One exception was the Celtics but Boston was in a funk at the time. The fact is that Chicago is an ugly 4-24 SU this season in games against teams with a winning record. The 76ers are a solid 17-6 SU this season in games against teams with a losing record. You can see why the likelihood is high that the Sixers get the win. That said, the pointspread dropping to a -5 offers significant value here. 38 of the Bulls 46 losses this season have come by a margin of at least 5 points. Philadelphia has had a lot of rest prior to this back to back situation so that sets them up well. Yesterday's win over Orlando was just the 3rd game for the 76ers in the past 8 days. The Bulls, conversely, will be playing for the 4th time in 6 days. Chicago is 6-14 ATS (1-19 SU!) in their last 20 home games that had a posted total of 220 points or more. The Sixers are on a 23-12 ATS run in March games. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-06-19 | LSU +1.5 v. Florida | Top | 79-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #787 Wednesday 10* Top Play LSU Tigers (+) @ Florida Gators @ 7 ET - This is a triple revenge spot for the Tigers. Not only did they lost to the Gators in their meetings each of the last two seasons, LSU also lost this season's first match-up (in OT) versus Florida two weeks ago. The fact is that the Tigers are a perfect 8-0 on the road in SEC action this season and have been playing extremely well overall with only two losses in their 19 games dating back to mid-December. The Tigers have one of the best point guards in the nation and behind him is a freshmen who played very well during his recent two game absence. The depth of LSU at the point is a key to why this offense functions as well as it does. While the Gators are averaging only 68.3 points per game on the season, the Tigers have averaged 81.8 points per game this season. The Gators are off a home loss to Georgia. Of course that should mean a bounce back is expected here. However, Florida has been on a money-burning stretch for an extended stretch now as they've failed to cover 9 of their last 12 games. LSU is on a 4-1 SU and ATS run as a road dog of 3 or less points. The Gators are 3-11 ATS in home games this season. Florida motivated here by hopes of an NCAA Tournament bid this season but Tigers highly motivated by revenge as well as being in the driver's seat for finishing at the top of the SEC standings for the regular season. 10* LSU |
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03-04-19 | Texas v. Texas Tech -8 | Top | 51-70 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #868 Monday 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders (-) vs Texas Longhorns @ 9 ET - The Longhorns are still without the suspended Kerwin Roach. Though they won Saturday versus Iowa State, they lost their two prior games without him. I know this spread may seem "big" but it is not without support. The Longhorns and Red Raiders have a huge rivalry and the Horns had dominated Texas Tech in games played in Austin prior to the Red Raiders road win earlier this season. How does that relate to this game? The fact is that Texas Tech won't hesitate if given the chance to blowout the Longhorns in Lubbock. I feel this one is set up perfect for that to happen as the Horns do battle without their leading scorer. Texas has scored very well in their last two games but I consider that an aberration as they shot the ball ridiculously well. Prior those two games the Horns had averaged just 66.7 points in their 3 prior games and now they face the top defense in the Big 12. Texas Tech enters this game having won 7 in a row and 6 of those wins came by at least a dozen points! Though the Red Raiders most recent home win came by just 4 points, their 4 most recent home wins prior to that each came by 19 points or more! The Longhorns are 3-10 SU and 5-8 ATS their last 13 games with one day of rest or less between games. The Red Raiders, same parameters, are 8-4 SU and ATS their last dozen and that includes a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS this season! Additionally, Texas Tech is 7-0 SU (and 5-1-1 ATS) as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points in recent seasons. Red Raiders are highly motivated for #1 spot in Big 12 and put a beating on the short-handed Horns here. 10* TEXAS TECH |
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03-04-19 | Nuggets +1.5 v. Spurs | Top | 103-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Monday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 8:35 ET - The Spurs are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 meetings with the Nuggets and that includes covering both match-ups this season. Those games took place in late December. The Spurs were favored by 4 when they hosted the Nuggets the day after Christmas. Now, the first lines that popped up on this game yesterday afternoon had Denver as a 2 point favorite. Of course the markets are jumping all over the perceived "mistake" and have now moved the line to San Antonio being the favorite. I understand the perception but that doesn't mean I agree with it! The Nuggets are only a game over .500 in road games this season while the Spurs are 24-7 on their home floor this season. But I am here to tell you that the Nuggets are the much better overall team in comparison with this season's version of the Spurs. Yes San Antonio is off back to back wins but they previously lost 7 of their 8 prior games. I know those games were on the road but the Spurs also got blown out by double digits by the Nets and Knicks! Catching one of the best teams in the league now off back to back losses and we're not even having to lay any points (thanks to being on the road and thanks to the market action), the Nuggets are the play here. They led the Spurs by double digits at half when these teams most recently met but had a rare bad game in terms of turnovers and allowed San Antonio to close that gap in the 2nd half and lose by just 3 points. That result also now giving us some line value here as the Nuggets have substantial edges all over the floor in this match-up. The last 6 times the Nuggets have entered a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games SU, they've gone 5-1 SU and I expect another win here in that situation. The Spurs, prior to back to back covers against the Pistons and Thunder, had gone 1-10 ATS in their 11 previous games! By the way, San Antonio was outshot by a combined 16 shots from the field in the games against Detroit and OKC. That catches up with the Spurs in this one and the Nuggets pull away as this game gets into the latter stages. 10* DENVER |
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03-04-19 | Virginia -5.5 v. Syracuse | 79-53 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #863 Monday 8* Virginia Cavaliers (-) @ Syracuse Orange @ 7 ET - This line opened at a 7 and is now down to a 5.5 as of early Monday morning. We're getting great line value here with the road favorite. This game carries plenty of meaning for the Cavs as they can maintain the #1 ACC spot by winning their final two games. That's because Virginia has the tiebreaker over the Tar Heels by virtue of beating North Carolina earlier this season. As for the Orange, certainly Syracuse can be a tough team and that is particularly true at home. However, Tony Bennett's Cavaliers are known for giving the Orange problems and I expect that to continue here. The Cavs are 9-1 SU and ATS in road games this season. Syracuse is 1-4 SU and ATS this season against teams that allow 60 points or less per game. Virginia, of course, is known for the stifling defense. As for the Orange, they are actually off a great effort on the defensive end in their win over Wake Forest. However, Syracuse is 0-5 ATS the last 5 times they were off a game in which they allowed 60 or less points. 8* VIRGINIA |
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03-03-19 | Blazers -2 v. Hornets | 118-108 | Win | 100 | 3 h 30 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #573 Sunday 8* Portland Trail Blazers (-) @ Charlotte Hornets @ 1:05 ET - The Trail Blazers are on a 6-0 ATS run. However, they are off a tight SU loss (at Toronto) in their most recent game. That serves as plenty of motivation here as Portland had entered that game winning 5 straight. Look for the Blazers to resume the winning here. They catch the Hornets off a big road win at Brooklyn. Prior to that win Charlotte had lost 7 of their 9 previous games. The Hornets surely want revenge here as they got thrashed by the Blazers at Portland in January by 31 points. However, the Trail Blazers enter this game fired up after the loss to the Raptors and I don't see them being denied here. They are the vastly superior team to the Hornets and we get line value here since this game is at Charlotte. Lay the short number with the road favorite in this one. 8* PORTLAND |
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03-02-19 | Warriors v. 76ers +5 | Top | 120-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #564 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Golden State Warriors @ 8:35 ET - This line opened up at a -4 on the Warriors and quickly jumped up to a -5 as the markets are loving backing Golden State here since they have revenge from earlier this season. Also, with Joel Embiid and Boban Marjanovic out for the Sixers that has captured attention as well. What is getting overlooked however is that the Warriors are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and Klay Thompson is dealing with a sore knee. They may rest him here. Additionally, the Sixers are at home and playing for just the 2nd time in 5 nights. This is part of a stretch where Philadelphia plays only 3 games in 8 days as they have two more days off after this game. From a scheduling standpoint this situation is a great one for Philly and you know that the Wells Fargo Center will be rocking with the defending NBA champs in town. The Sixers are hungry to prove they are a legitimate threat for the NBA title. Even without Embiid, this team is highly talented with Jimmy Butler, Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, and JJ Redick. The betting public loves the Warriors but Golden State is on a 2-10 ATS skid. The Sixers are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS against Pacific Division opponents this season. The 76ers are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games overall and one of those two losses came by just points. We're catching 5 here and the home dog Sixers have a great shot at the outright upset as the Warriors have lost 4 of their last 6 SU. One of those two Golden State SU wins came by just two points. Grab the generous points being offered here. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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03-02-19 | North Carolina -4.5 v. Clemson | Top | 81-79 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #665 Saturday 10* Top Play North Carolina Tar Heels (-) @ Clemson Tigers @ 6 ET - Clemson is at home here and they've gone 12-3 at home this season while North Carolina is 10-3 away from home on the season. Of course that is what is keeping this line lower than it should be. I expect the Tar Heels to blast the Tigers here. There are a number of key factors that support that theory. One of which is that UNC lost here by 4 last season. Clemson hit 15 of 30 threes in that game. That had a lot to do with it and the Tar Heels had won 10 straight over the Tigers before that game. In other words, this is a big-time payback spot. In games against the ACC teams that currently have 20 wins, North Carolina lost to Virginia but beat Duke, Virginia Tech, NC State (twice), and Florida State. Now lets talk about how Clemson has done in facing top tier teams. The Tigers did beat Virginia Tech but they have lost to Florida State (twice), Duke, Virginia, and NC State. You can easily see that when it comes time to step in big games this season the Tar Heels have risen to the occasion while the Tigers have faltered. Look for that to be the case again Saturday. UNC still has a shot to finish at the top of the ACC if they win out and, if you were worried about motivation here, the fact the Tar Heels lost here last season dismisses that notion. As for Clemson they are surely motivated too but they have proven time and time again this season they can not beat the top tier teams in the ACC. In fact, I should have mentioned the other two 18-win teams - Syracuse and Louisville. Clemson lost to both of them as well. So the over-rated Tigers are 1-7 against top ACC competition. The Tar Heels beat Syracuse and went 1-1 against Louisville. So the deserved #5 team in the nation is a combined 7-2 against top ACC competition. Considering these factors, plus revenge, plus a short number to lay here, and we've got tremendous value here with the road favorite. Clemson is 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS as an underdog this season. The Tar Heels are 9-2 SU and ATS in road games this season. 10* NORTH CAROLINA |
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03-02-19 | Rutgers v. Iowa -8.5 | 86-72 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #698 Saturday 8* Iowa Hawkeyes (-) vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ 5 ET - Iowa’s head coach Fran McCaffery has been suspended for two games for berating an official after the ugly loss to Ohio State in the Hawkeyes most recent game. The good news for the Hawkeyes is the assistant coaches who will take over for the next two games include guys with head coaching experience and they've also each been on his staff the past 9 seasons. Additionally, McCaffery is still leading practices and film sessions and will even be in the building for this game as there is a ceremony for Hawkeyes senior Baer taking place Saturday. Of course Iowa is going to be hungry for multiple reasons here. They're not happy about the fact they just lost by 20 to Ohio State and certainly that led to the anger which further led to their coach's tirade which further led to his suspension. The Hawkeyes want to respond here after all the ugliness from the Buckeyes game and this is the final home game for Iowa. Where they hold a big edge here in this match-up is not only the home floor factor but also the fact that the Scarlet Knights struggle to defend the 3. Also, the set up is perfect with Iowa off an ugly loss and Rutgers off a rare win. The Scarlet Knights had lost 5 of 6 prior to winning their most recent game. The Hawkeyes are 7-1 ATS this season when off a game in which they allowed 80 or more points. Also, Rutgers hasn't played since Sunday and they are 2-5 ATS (including 1-3 ATS this season) when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest between games. Iowa is also 9-4 ATS in recent seasons when facing a team with a losing record. That is combined trends of 21-7 / 75% in favor of a home blowout in this one. 8* IOWA |
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03-01-19 | Blazers +5 v. Raptors | Top | 117-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #541 Friday 10* Top Play Portland Trail Blazers (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - Both teams are off wins over the Celtics. Even though the Raptors have an extra day of rest here in comparison with the Blazers, the fact is that the win over Boston was a much bigger victory for Toronto than Portland. Of course that is because the Celtics are divisional rivals of the Raptors. Note that the first 12 times this season that Toronto has been off a divisional game, they've covered their next game just 3 times. That is a poor 25% ATS rate for the Raptors when off a divisional game this season and, again, that win over Boston wasn't just "any" divisional game! Some will be looking to Toronto to get revenge here too because they lost the first game at Portland this season. However, that game against Boston meant a helluva lot more to the Raptors than this game does. Also, Toronto swept the Trail Blazers last season so it is Portland that is now looking to return the favor this season. The Blazers enter this game red hot as they are on a 5-0 SU and ATS run. As for the Raptors, they had failed to cover 5 straight games before the big win over the Celtics. Look for Toronto to drop to 4-9 ATS in Friday games this season while the Blazers add to an impressive record in March games that is 25-6 SU and ATS the past two seasons! Also, the Trail Blazers are 6-2 ATS (and 8-0 SU!) against Atlantic Division opponents. 10* PORTLAND |
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03-01-19 | Rhode Island v. Dayton -7 | Top | 72-70 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #860 Dayton Flyers vs Rhode Island Rams @ 7 ET - The earliest number on this game was a -9 yesterday. As of this morning the line is down to a -7 on Dayton. I understand what the markets are looking at here. This is a revenge spot for the Rams considering the Flyers routed them on their home floor 3 weeks ago. However, the thought that Rhode Island automatically bounces back and gets the cover here is not that well-founded. The fact is last season the Rams beat the Flyers by double digits in both games! In other words, how these games play out has a lot to do with the talent of each team each season and, this year, it is the Flyers turn to get the sweep! They lost by 25 at Rhode Island last season and also were beaten by the Rams by 14 in Dayton. Again, the same season revenge is over-played. If anything, it is the Flyers (the far superior team this season) that really has revenge here as they remember what happened on their home floor last season. Another key to the value here is Dayton is off a game against one of the Atlantic Ten's worst teams and has another weak foe on deck. In other words, the Flyers are fully focused on the Rams here. Dayton has been shooting the ball extremely well and that includes from beyond the arc particularly when on their home floor. Rhode Island is off a rare win where they shot the ball well but they faced a bad George Washington team. Prior to that victory, the Rams were held to 37.5% or less from the field in 5 straight games! RI went 0-5 SU and ATS in those games. Rhode Island is 2-9 SU and ATS in their 11 lined road games this season. The Flyers are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in their 8 line games against teams with a losing record this season. Home blowout on tap in this one! 10* DAYTON |
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03-01-19 | Columbia v. Brown -4.5 | 80-77 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #852 Friday 8* Brown Bears (-) vs Columbia Lions @ 5 ET - This line has dropped from an opener of 7.5 yesterday to a 4.5 as of early this morning. Brown is 11-2 at home this season. Columbia is 2-9 on the road this season. Those are SU numbers and of course we need to cover the spread here. But those are still powerful numbers and with the line now becoming very short on this game, I am comfortable that we'll get the ATS win. The Lions are 1-7 SU in their last 8 games and those 7 losses came by an average margin of defeat of 8 points per loss. The Bears are off a 3 point win over Dartmouth Saturday but that is just the 2nd time in 11 home wins that this season that the margin of victory was less than 5 points. Brown's other 2 Ivy League home wins had each come by 8 or more points. Columbia allows 40% three pointers on the road this season while the Bears are knocking down 37.4% of their threes at home this season and have been particularly hot from beyond the arc in recent home games. The line move here has led to great line value with the small home favorite. Lay it! 8* BROWN |
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02-28-19 | 76ers +8 v. Thunder | Top | 108-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #539 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 8:05 ET - With big men Joel Embiid and Boban Marjanovic sidelined for this one, there has been a huge jump in the line. The very first number that was posted offshore yesterday was a 5 and now this line is up to an 8. Keep in mind, the Sixers still have ton of talent on the floor with Ben Simmons, Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris, and JJ Redick. Also, Jonah Bolden and Mike Scott are capable of putting up some solid numbers with both Embiid and Marjanovic expected to be out for this game. We're getting a ton of value here with the big points being offered. The Thunder stole one from the Sixers last month in Philly and the 76ers haven't forgotten that game. The fact is that Oklahoma City has had the Sixers number in recent years but of course this season is the best 76ers team they've faced in a long time. Again, even with Embiid and Marjanovic out, I don't see this being an easy win at all for the Thunder. Philly is hell-bent on getting revenge here and Oklahoma City is on an 0-4 ATS skid as the only SU win they have during this stretch came by a single point. For those of you that like statistical odds too, the fact is that there is an interesting pattern with Philly this season. They have 39 wins on the season and, amazingly, they have had only 3 standalone wins. What I mean by that is when the Sixers are off a win that followed a loss they almost always follow it with another win. They have 14 streaks of 2 or more wins. They have had only 3 occurrences where they produced just a single win and all those were in calendar year 2018. In other words, don't be surprised if Philadelphia shocks and gets the outright upset win here but, of course, I am grabbing the points with the 76ers as added insurance! The Sixers are 36-17 ATS including 5-1 ATS (and SU!) this season when playing with home loss revenge. The Thunder are 1-9 ATS (and 3-7 SU!) when off a division game. Could be a shocker in OKC tonight. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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02-28-19 | Old Dominion +1.5 v. Texas-San Antonio | Top | 65-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
TV Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #667 Thursday 10* Top Play Old Dominion Monarchs (+) @ UTSA Roadrunners @ 8 ET - They were ahead by 17 points with under 3:10 to play. They were ahead by 8 points with under 1:20 to play. They were ahead by 6 points with under 45 seconds to play. They were ahead by 4 points with under 35 seconds to play. They ended up losing the game by a single point. Of course I am talking about the Monarchs first match-up with the Roadrunners which also took place at UTSA and was played in late January. That makes this a major revenge spot for Old Dominion as that game was truly one of the most insane finishes of the entire college basketball season and the Monarchs were on the wrong end of it. Because this game is again at San Antonio we're getting line value here as we don't even have to lay any points to have Old Dominion with big-time revenge on their side. Why are they again meeting in San Antonio? It is because Conference USA made a decision to go to a bonus play-in system this season which then sets the seeding for the upcoming conference tourney. There are 3 groups of seeds and Old Dominion and UTSA are in the group that is seeded 1 through 5. That means Monarchs and Roadrunners can each finish as high as #1 or as low as #5 in the seeding for the upcoming tourney. Old Dominion already won their first game Saturday. For UTSA, this is their first game of the play-in schedule. Not only do the Monarchs badly want revenge here, they also are going for the #1 seed in the tourney. Old Dominion has proven themselves as the top team in CUSA this season and they will show that on the floor in San Antonio tonight. The Monarchs have won 11 of their last 12 games and the lone loss was the ridiculous 1-point defeat at UTSA. The Roardrunners are just 5-5 their last 10 games and that includes that miracle win over Old Dominion. I am well aware of the fact that UTSA is on a 10-game winning streak on their home floor. But that is all the more incentive for the better team in this match-up as they get payback in a major way tonight. Also, the Roadrunners will be very rusty here as they have not played since the 16th - a span of nearly two weeks! 10* OLD DOMINION |
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02-28-19 | Xavier v. St. John's -5.5 | 84-73 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #602 Thursday 8* St John's Red Storm (-) vs Xavier Musketeers @ 6:30 ET - This is a final home game situation for the Red Storm and sets up extremely well. I know the Musketeers have been hot but I don't see them being able to rise up again here. After 4 straight upset wins, including knocking off the defending champs in their most recent game, Xavier falls short here. The Musketeers have had St John's number in recent seasons but last season they led them by only 4 at the half in Xavier before going to out to blow them away in the 2nd half and win by 28 points! The Red Storm have not forgotten that embarrassing defeat and now get a chance for revenge at home. St John's has only lost one game at Carnesecca Arena and that was a game in which leading scorer Shamorie Ponds did not play. I am aware of the fact that 2nd-leading scorer Mustapha Heron misssed the most recent game for the Red Storm and is questionable with a knee injury here. However, I don't expect him to miss this final home game situation and feel he merely needed to rest the knee. Now having not played a game in over a week, Heron should be good to go here. However, even if he misses this one, St John's just knocked off Seton Hall without him on Saturday. Many will look at this game and feel that the points look too big but this game is priced this way with good reason. Even with some recent success, the Musketeers are still just 3-6 SU and ATS in road games this season. The Red Storm, including games both at Carnesecca Arena and Madison Square Garden, are 13-3 at home this season. 10 of Xavier's 13 losses this season have come by a margin of 7 or more points. Lay it! 8* ST JOHN'S |
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02-27-19 | Tennessee -4.5 v. Ole Miss | Top | 73-71 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
Early Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #795 Wednesday 10* Top Play Tennessee Volunteers (-) @ Ole Miss Rebels @ 7 ET - This is a great value situation because everyone is a little down on the Vols right now while the Rebels have been getting a little extra attention thanks to some recent winning. Here is the key with those Ole Miss wins however. The Rebels have won 5 of their last 6 games but 2 of the wins came against Georgia. The Bulldogs are 1-13 in SEC action! The most impressive win would be over Auburn (7-7 in SEC) but the other two of the five wins came against A & M (5-10) and Missouri (3-12). In other words, Ole Miss has been helped by their schedule of late. As for the Volunteers, they have faced a tough schedule and the blowout loss at Kentucky recently is still fresh in the minds of the betting public. Also, Tennessee is off a very tight OT loss at LSU in their most recent games. So while it is true that the Vols have lost 2 of their last 3 games it is also true that those defeats came against a pair of teams that are EACH 13-2 in SEC action! Prior to the SU and ATS loss at LSU, Tennessee had been a perfect 4-0 ATS the last 4 times they enter a game on an ATS losing streak of 3 or more games. They get back on track in a big way here against an Ole Miss team that is over-valued right now. The Rebels have been a hot ATS team this season but they are on a long-term 8-14 ATS run in February games and the fade is on here! The Volunteers have won and covered 3 straight against Mississippi and get the job done again here in a road rout. 10* TENNESSEE |
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02-26-19 | Toledo +1 v. Ball State | Top | 80-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #617 Tuesday 10* Top Play Toledo Rockets (+) @ Ball State Cardinals @ 7 ET - The Rockets have only lost 2 home games all season. Why am I mentioning home games when they are on the road here? I mention it because one of the two home losses Toledo had was to the best team in the MAC, Buffalo. However, the other home floor defeat was at the hands of these Cardinals. In other words, it is payback time. Actually that payback has been a long time coming too! Ball State has beaten the Rockets five straight times. Some will look at this line and say it is easy just to take the Cardinals on their home floor to get the win. As you know, nothing is ever that easy and I love the value here we're getting with revenge-minded Toledo. Keep in mind, Ball State has been struggling for an extended stretch. The Cardinals have lost 9 of their last 13 games SU and 10 of their last 13 ATS. Ball State has been held under 40% from the field in 3 straight games and has shot 19% from 3-point land in their last 3 games as well. In other words, the Cardinals are slumping badly. The Rockets are offering significant value here because they are on an 0-3 ATS run at the betting window and that has the betting markets holding a negative opinion of them at the moment. Keep in mind this is a Toledo team that has already surpassed the 20 win mark this season. Additionally, since early January back to back losses to Ball State and Buffalo, the Rockets have won 9 of their past 12 games! Toledo is 4-2 SU and ATS in their last 6 road games. When off a SU win versus a conference foe this season, the Rockets have gone 6-2 SU and ATS. The Cardinals are 2-8 ATS when off a game in which they scored 60 or less points. That includes Ball State going 0-3 ATS and SU this season in this situation. More of the same here. 10* TOLEDO |
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02-25-19 | 76ers +1.5 v. Pelicans | 111-110 | Win | 102 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #575 Monday 8* Philadelphia 76'ers (+) @ New Orleans Pelicans @ 8:05 ET - Yes the Sixers are without Joel Embiid right now but this is still a team that is loaded with talent and yet coming off an embarrassing home loss. The 76ers lost to Portland by 15 points on Saturday. In other other words Philly is going to be read to go here. The earliest line on this game had Philadelphia favored by 1.5 points but now they are a dog by 1.5 points. As long-time followers know I love going against line moves like this and the set up here is very strong. Note that the Sixers are 9-2 ATS (and 10-1 SU!) this season when off a loss by a double digit margin. As for the Pelicans, if they win this game (by looking at the low number) odds are they get the cover. In other words, outside of a 1-point win, any Charlotte win would also be a cover based on this number. Why is that significant? Because the Pelicans are coming off a win here and they have not followed a SU win with a win and cover after ANY of their last 6 wins! Not only is that 0-6 run working in our favor here (and the Sixers 10-1 run favoring us too) but also note the simple fact that the Pelicans had lost 11 of their last 16 games before beating the Lakers Friday. New Orleans is also 1-6 SU this season when off an upset win as an underdog. From a situational standpoint, this is a great situation filled with value. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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02-25-19 | Notre Dame v. Florida State -12.5 | Top | 61-68 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #862 Monday 10* Top Play Florida State Seminoles (-) vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 7 ET - I successfully played against the Noles on Saturday with North Carolina and the Tar Heels delivered the beating I expected. Now it is the Seminoles turn, however, to be on the right side of a thrashing. To many bettors this line will look to big but Florida State should win this game by 20. Certainly FSU is fired up and they have but one loss on their home floor this season while Notre Dame has managed only 2 road wins this season. You can see who is very likely to win this game but, now, what about the all-important cover? As long-time followers know I rarely lay big points. When I do it has to be a situation where my team is not going to take their foot off the gas. That is the case here. Florida State didn't just lose on Saturday, they got embarrassed. Back home now with a quick turnaround chance to redeem themselves and with the eyes of the College Basketball World on them, the Seminoles are going to put on a show in this one! They are highly talented, so much moreso than the Irish, and had won 8 in a row SU (7-1 ATS) prior to the loss to UNC. As for Notre Dame, they are on a 3-11 SU run and 4-11 ATS run. 3 of their last 6 losses have come by 15 points or more. The Seminoles last 3 wins all came by 13 points or more. The average margin of those victories was 19 points. This line was as high as 13.5 and has dropped to a 12.5 in early market activity. I like the value here in a game I expect FSU to win by 20. The Fighting Irish are 3-9 ATS last 12 times they were off a game in which they were held to 60 points or less. The Seminoles are a long-term 9-4 ATS as a home favorite in a range of 12.5 to 15 points. 10* FLORIDA STATE |
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02-24-19 | Spurs -8.5 v. Knicks | Top | 118-130 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #559 Sunday 10* Top Play San Antonio Spurs (-) @ New York Knicks @ 7:35 ET - The Knicks are the worst team in the NBA. Yes, this is a significant number of points to lay on the road, especially with a team that has been struggling ATS. However, the Spurs did play quite well at Toronto Friday and that is why they got the cover and very nearly got the outright win. Keep in mind that was with LaMarcus Aldridge scoring only 6 points and certainly he was not himself in that game. Aldridge has been upgraded to probable for this game. Considering he is highly likely to play much better and considering the Spurs are hungry for a win and facing an awful Knicks team, you can see why I am expecting a road win by a double digit margin in this one. The Spurs are on an 18-9 ATS run in Sunday games including 4-2 ATS this season. San Antonio is on an 18-8 ATS run against Atlantic Division foes including 5-1 ATS this season. Even though the Knicks are off a double digit loss and would love to bounce back here, note that New York is 9-19 ATS this season when they are off a game which they lost by a margin of 10 points or more. Note also that this will be New York's 29th home game this season. So far the Knicks have only 9 ATS covers this season on their home floor! The Spurs are hungry and they know they need this game tonight as tomorrow's game at Brooklyn is a much tougher match-up than this one. Coach Gregg Popovich has the troops ready for this one. 10* SAN ANTONIO |
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02-24-19 | Magic +9.5 v. Raptors | 113-98 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Game #555 Sunday 8* Orlando Magic (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 3:35 ET - The Raptors are off a revenge minded win over the Spurs on Friday. It was a hard-fought game and you know former Spurs Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green wanted that game badly. Now the Raptors have another revenge game here but it is not nearly as motivating as the game against the Spurs was. That said, once again I look for a SU win for the Raptors but a non-covering win just like we saw in the game versus San Antonio on Friday. The fact is that Toronto is known for playing to the level of their competition. The Raptors enter this game having failed to cover 4 straight games. Also, Orlando has covered both match-ups this season and the Magic enter this game with plenty of confidence. That's because Orlando, prior to a tight 1-point home loss to Chicago on Friday, had won and covered 5 straight games and 7 of their last 8. The Magic are 8-2 ATS in Sunday games this season and also a superb 10-1 ATS versus Atlantic Division opponents this season. Not only are the Raptors off a huge win versus the Spurs, they have a massive game (versus Boston) on deck for Tuesday. From a situational perspective this is a horrible spot for Toronto. Also note that the Raptors are 5-12 ATS this season when off a game where they allowed 115 points or more. 8* ORLANDO |
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02-24-19 | SMU v. UCF -6.5 | 48-95 | Win | 100 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #822 Sunday 8* Central Florida Knights (-) vs SMU Mustangs @ Noon ET - This line opened up at a 7.5 and has now dropped to as low as a 6.5 as of early game day morning. That means additional value here in what is a great spot for Central Florida. The Knights are coming off a loss at Cincinnati. That certainly holds significance here as UCF has not lost back to back games all season long! Central Florida did get the cover as a dog at Cincinnati but fell short of the SU win but the Knights have now covered 4 in a row ATS. They certainly have been heading the opposite direction of SMU. While the Mustangs are off a win and cover versus Connecticut Thursday, Southern Methodist had previously lost 7 of their last 8 SU and 9 of their last 11 ATS! Though the Mustangs have revenge here, they are 0-4 ATS when playing with home loss revenge this season. SMU is also 0-4 ATS when off a win in conference action! The Knights are a fantastic 29-3 SU and 21-9-2 ATS long-term when a home favorite in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. Lay the points here. 8* CENTRAL FLORIDA |
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02-23-19 | Delaware v. Drexel -3 | Top | 60-68 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
PA Insider GOW - Rickenbach CBB Game #694 Saturday 10* Top Play Drexel Dragons (-) vs Delaware Blue Hens @ 5 ET - One of the Blue Hens best players is guard Kevin Anderson. Keep in mind he was a Rookie of the Year for the Colonial Athletic Association. Anderson, a sophomore, has missed the past two games with a knee injury. He is listed as questionable here but even if Anderson does play how effective would he be? Keep in mind he has a history of knee problems as he missed all but 11 games of his rookie season because of a knee injury. Delaware certainly wants to be careful with him and his absence or ineffectiveness really hurts the Blue Hens. They have been without him the past two games and they had to go to double OT to beat a bad Towson team and then they followed that up by losing to James Madison. The Blue Hens beat the Dragons earlier this season at Delaware but only by a single point and Anderson had 16 points in that one point win. Without Anderson, or with him limited, the Blue Hens certainly could be in trouble with the rematch being at Drexel. The home team is a perfect 7-0 SU in this series. Granted there have been some tight wins in that run but the Dragons are favored by just 3 points here. That certainly bears mentioning as 9 of Delaware's 12 losses this season have come by 6 or more points this season. As for Drexel wins, only 1 of the 12 has come by a margin of less than 4 points. Look for the Blue Hens to drop to 2-7 ATS this season in Saturday games. The Dragons are 8-1 SU and ATS as a favorite this season! 10* DREXEL |
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02-23-19 | Florida State v. North Carolina -7 | 59-77 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #668 Saturday 8* North Carolina Tar Heels (-) vs Florida State Seminoles @ 3:45 PM ET - This is classic case of misguided market perception. It also follows the zig zag theory where when the markets go one way it is actually best to go the other way. In this case, the entire sports betting world watched North Caroline beat Duke on Wednesday so, of course, now everyone wants to fade the Tar Heels in this perceived "flat spot". There are multiple problems with that theory. First off, there is no way in hell that UNC is going to be flat when they're on their home floor and facing a highly regarded and ranked opponent. Adding fuel to the fire for North Carolina here is the fact that they lost to FSU last season. It was a painful loss too as the Heels simply couldn't make their shots. UNC had TWENTY more shots from the field than the Seminoles but lost the game by a single point due to a rare off shooting night. Now, instead of playing this game at Florida State, the Tar Heels get the Noles at home. Contrary to market perception here (line opened at 8 and and has dropped as low as 6.5) there is plenty of reasoning to expect the Tar Heels win this game by a double digit margin in a home blowout! The Seminoles are a quality team for sure but they're averaging 73 points per game on the road this season and North Carolina is averaging 89 points per game at home this season. That's a 16-point variance and that is a margin of victory I expect here for the Tar Heels. Even if slightly sluggish in first half (off the Duke win) the Heels will be reminded at halftime of what happened at Florida State last season. 8* NORTH CAROLINA |
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02-23-19 | Blazers v. 76ers -2 | 130-115 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 16 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #532 Saturday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 1:05 ET - The home team has won 8 straight games in this series. Couple that with the fact that this line is a very short number (thanks to Joel Embiid being out) and you have great value with the home side in this match-up. Keep in mind the Sixers also have revenge here from being thoroughly embarrassed at Portland in late December. The 76ers were down 29 points at the half and lost that game by a margin of 34 points. Philly is 24-7 SU at home this season. The Trail Blazers are on a 9-16 ATS run in February games and, prior to their win at Brooklyn Thursday, had lost 5 of their last 7 road games both SU and ATS. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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02-22-19 | Clippers v. Grizzlies +2 | 112-106 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Game #526 Friday 8* Memphis Grizzlies (+) vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 8:05 ET - As of early this morning the Clippers are favored by as little as a point and a half. Keep in mind, Los Angeles is currently in a playoff spot and 5 games above .500 while the Grizzlies are 13 games under .500 and next to last in the Western Conference. The odds makers must be "way off" on this one, right? Long-time followers know how I feel about that, as a general rule, and I am going contrarian here and going with the "ugly home dog" theory in this one. In terms of support for this play, Memphis is 3-2 SU (5-0 ATS!) in their last 5 home games. Overall the Grizzlies are on a solid 7-2-1 ATS run. The Clippers are off a SU (and ATS) win and they've been in a pattern of "win one / lose one" for awhile. Also, since the calendar turned the page to 2019, LA has managed only 2 ATS win streaks, each just 3 games. The home team has won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams. The Clippers had a blowout 134-107 win versus Phoenix before the All Star break and are a long-term 5-11 ATS when off a game in which they scored 130 points or more. 8* MEMPHIS |
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02-22-19 | Columbia v. Pennsylvania -7.5 | Top | 79-77 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #860 Friday 10* Top Play Penn Quakers (-) vs Columbia Lions @ 8 ET - The Quakers are still in the hunt for finishing in the top 4 of the Ivy League and qualifying for their post-season tourney. The Lions are the worst team in the conference by far. With Penn also entering this game off a tough OT loss to Harvard last week, the set up is perfect here for a home blowout win. Admittedly the Quakers have underachieved in Ivy League action thus far but they entered last weekend having had just one home game in league action thus far. Penn's schedule has been tough to say the least. They nearly pulled off the much-needed 2-0 sweep last weekend but back to back OT games (they beat Dartmouth in OT Friday) proved to be too much as you would expect. The Crimson are a tough team to face in a spot like that. Penn was 6-2 at home prior to losing to Harvard and now will take advantage of a facing a Columbia team that is just 1-8 in road games this season. I am well aware of the fact that the points seem high here but we've now seen this line drop from a 9 to a 7.5 and we're being offered great value here as the Quakers are ready for the much needed big blowout win that can keep their season alive. Keep in mind, Penn gets Cornell (5-3 in league action) tomorrow! I am well aware of the fact that both these teams are known for playing in tight games but I am calling for a win by double digits here as the Lions have shot poorly in back to back games and those were both at home! As for the Quakers, they had shot very well in 3 of their 4 games prior to the tough back to back OT situation. The hot shooting resumes tonight for the home team. 10* PENN |
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02-22-19 | Harvard v. Brown +2 | 79-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #854 Friday 8* Brown Bears (+) vs Harvard Crimson @ 7 ET - This line was as low as a pick'em and has now moved as high as a -2.5 on Harvard as of early this morning. The reason for the move is that the Crimson have dominated the Bears not just in recent seasons but an entire decade. Considering that as well as the fact that Harvard is 6-2 in Ivy League action and Brown is only 3-5 in conference action this season, a major mistake has been made here by the odds makers, right? Of course long-time followers know how I feel about that and the fact is that the Bears have been viewing this game as the perfect opportunity to finally end their long losing streak against Harvard. Keep in mind, the Crimson are only 5-6 on the road this season while Brown is a solid 9-2 at home. Also, Harvard's most recent game was an emotional OT win over Penn. Additionally, the Crimson have a huge game on deck tomorrow at Yale. Of course the Bulldogs have the best record (7-1) in the Ivy League and it will not be a surprise to see Harvard looking right past a Brown team they have dominated. Lets be honest here...the concern for the Crimson is already the 1-2 battle between themselves and Yale tomorrow. Perfect scenario for an upset win here. 8* BROWN |
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02-21-19 | Heat v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 102-106 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Miami Heat @ 7:05 ET - The fact that the Sixers are without Joel Embiid for this one is keeping this line to a very manageable number considering Philly is on their home floor and the Heat have been struggling. The 76ers, even without Embiid, are still the much more talented team here. Philadelphia has Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, Jimmy Butler, and JJ Redick. Additionally, the Sixers new reserve big man Boban Marjanovic will step up with Embiid being out. Philly is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS the last 7 times they've hosted Miami. Of course the Heat have revenge here as they were ousted from the playoffs by the Sixers last spring but, keep in mind, they had that revenge on their mind earlier this season too when they hosted the 76ers and yet they still lost by double digits at Miami! The Heat enter this game having lost 6 of their past 8 games. The Sixers are off a win and have won 14 of 21 in the New Year. Philly did lose their most recent home game but had won 9 of 12 prior on their home floor. 8 of the 76ers last 9 wins have come by 7 or more points and I see every reason to expect another win by at least that margin tonight! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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02-21-19 | UCF +8 v. Cincinnati | 55-60 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #601 Thursday Central Florida Knights (+) @ Cincinnati Bearcats @ 7 ET - Losing is one thing...getting completely annihilated is another thing altogether. The last time the Knights visited Cincinnati they found themselves down 33-13 at the half. UCF went on to lose that game 77 to 40. Central Florida went 0 for 14 from three point land and the Bearcats made 10 threes. Simply put, it was just one of those nights that can happen from time to time but, rest assured, the Knights haven't forgotten and they look to atone for that loss here. This is the first time these teams have met since that game and it is again in Cincinnati. While I don't necessarily expect an outright upset win here in terms of revenge for UCF, I do expect Central Florida to be much more competitive. That means great line value here with the spread on this game currently sitting at +8. Keep in mind, even though Cincinnati is 9-1 SU their last 10 games, the Bearcats only won 3 of those games by more than 8 points and one of those was by 11 and another by 10. In other words, there is every reason to believe that UCF will be "right there" with this number throughout this game and I believe their highly motivated effort means this one is decided by more than a half-dozen points. The Knights are allowing just 61.8 points per game on the road this season! You can tell by the low total on this game (has dipped into the 120s) that a tight, defensive struggle is quite likely which means even more value with the generous points being offered. 8* CENTRAL FLORIDA |
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02-20-19 | Villanova -5.5 v. Georgetown | 73-85 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #781 Wednesday 8* Villanova Wildcats (-) @ Georgetown Hoyas @ 6:30 ET - The Wildcats are off a loss at St John's Sunday where they blew a huge first half lead. The Red Storm, in my opinion, are well-coached and they are also very physical and tough. That was the difference in the 2nd half of that game (I had St John's as a premium pick in that one). This match-up is completely different and the results show it. Villanova has thoroughly dominated Georgetown time and time again in recent years. The Wildcats have a huge coaching edge with Jay Wright over the Hoyas Patrick Ewing. Also, Georgetown has the misfortune of facing Nova when they are angry off a loss. The Wildcats are 7-1 ATS this season when off an ATS loss and only lost back to back games ATS once this season and that was three months ago! The Hoyas could be rusty here as they haven't played in a week while the Wildcats are going to hit the floor running and should be firing on all cylinders from the opening tip. Villanova can't wait to get back on the floor after what happened at St John's. The Wildcats are 30-16 ATS in games with a posted total in the 140s and 53-30 ATS in games against teams with a winning record. Georgetown is playing this game with road loss revenge but that is a situation that has seen them go 6-14 ATS. Also, the Hoyas are on a horrific 13-31 ATS run in home games. Road rout expected here. 8* VILLANOVA |
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02-19-19 | Dayton +3.5 v. Davidson | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #601 Tuesday 8* Dayton Flyers (+) @ Davidson Wildcats @ 6 ET - The Wildcats are 12-0 at home this season and opened up as low as a 2.5 point favorite in this one. The current line on Davidson, no surprise to me, is currently up to 3.5 early game day morning. I would not be surprised if it goes higher. As usual I am in the contrarian position here and simply reminding you that the odds makers are very sharp. They opened this one with a very low number on the Cats for the same reason I like the Flyers in this match-up. That is, Dayton has a great shot at the upset here. Note that it has been over a month since Davidson hosted an Atlantic Ten team as strong as this Flyers team. The Wildcats won their two toughest home games in conference action but both were in early January and both involved their opponents have uncharacteristically poor shooting nights from three point land. Davidson beat VCU and Duquesne but the Rams and Dukes combined to shoot about 20% from beyond the arc and the Wildcats won those two games by an average margin of just 5.5 points. The point is that now Davidson hosts a strong Dayton team that is really "feeling it" right now in terms of their shooting. The Flyers have shot "lights out", including from downtown, in each of their last two games. Also, Dayton has built up some road confidence thanks to going 3-1 in their last 4 road games and with the two most recent road wins coming by an average margin of 27 points per game! The Flyers are off a 1-point loss at VCU and that holds significance here as they are 4-0 (SU and ATS) the last 4 times they were off a SU loss. 8* DAYTON |
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02-18-19 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech +6.5 | 64-58 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #852 Monday 8* Virginia Tech Hockies (+) vs Virginia Cavaliers @ 7 ET - This line opened up as low as Virginia -3.5 but, as of early Monday morning, the line is now up to as high as -6.5 on the Cavaliers. That is because the Hokies have no chance in this match-up. I am being sarcastic of course. I love fading line moves like this and am very happy to be getting 3 more points than what the odds makers said I should be getting with Virginia Tech. You get my point? Grab the points here and take advantage of the extra points being offered! Why? First off the Hokies get this rematch at home. Yes Virginia Tech got blasted at Virginia in mid-January but the Hokies have been playing better defense of late. Also, they've gone to a "matchup zone" type of defense that has helped limit opponents scoring. Virginia Tech is sure to employ plenty of that again in this match-up and, keep in mind, the Cavaliers just faced a type of zone defense against Notre Dame Saturday and they barely won the game. Not only did the Cavs beat the Fighting Irish by only 6 points, that game was a home game for Virginia. They face a much tougher task here and I feel strongly that the Cavaliers will be locked into a fierce battle just to avoid the upset tonight let alone win this game by more than a half dozen points! You knew Virginia's hot ATS run couldn't last all season and, sure enough, they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. Virginia Tech is 5-0 SU and ATS the past two seasons when revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more. Also, the Hokies are 4-1 SU and ATS the past two seasons as a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points. Now we're even seeing 6.5 starting to pop up on this one. I'll take it! 8* VIRGINIA TECH |
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02-17-19 | Villanova v. St. John's +4 | Top | 65-71 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #828 Sunday 10* Top Play St John's Red Storm (+) vs Villanova Wildcats @ 5 ET - Great line value here as a line that opened up as low as a -1.5 on Villanova is all the way up to as a high as a -4 on the Wildcats as of early Sunday morning. This is great home dog line value being offered to the Red Storm. While it is true that St John's lost the first meeting this season (at Villanova), the Red Storm actually had a double digit lead in the 2nd half of that game! Also, though the Wildcats are off an 18-point win versus Providence that game was much closer than that for much of the contest. In their prior game, Nova had to rally to still lose by a point at Marquette. The point is that the Cats continue to be a covering machine but they've truly been quite fortunate in recent contests and here is where that luck runs out. I actually expect an outright upset here for the Red Storm but, of course, am grabbing the generous points being offered as added insurance. Note that St John's Shamorie Ponds has had great success against the Wildcats in his career and also is known for huge performances in big games. Additionally, he is coming off a rare poor game and the fact that the Red Storm still won that game (versus Butler) says a lot. The fact is that St John's is very talented (much more than just Ponds) and they also play physical basketball and the Wildcats have been having trouble on the boards for long stretches in recent games. This one will be a fierce battle and I see the Red Storm taking advantage of this marquee opportunity on their home floor against a ranked rival. 10* ST JOHN'S |
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02-17-19 | Seton Hall v. Creighton -4 | 81-75 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #822 Sunday 8* Creighton Bluejays (-) vs Seton Hall Pirates @ 3 ET - This is a revenge game for the Bluejays as they lost at Seton Hall last Saturday. That defeat is a part of a 3-game losing streak that has seen Creighton struggle with a shooting slump. However, all 3 games were on the road. Keep in mind, the Bluejays are a much better shooting team when at home. In fact, Creighton won their most recent home game 76-54 versus Xavier behind a huge shooting performance at home. The Bluejays have been playing well defensively. Look for that to continue here and then the difference in the game will be Creighton again finding their shooting stroke at home. The Bluejays are off back to back ATS losses but previously had covered 4 of their last 5 games. The Pirates enter this game on a 5-game losing streak in road games. The average margin of defeat for Seton Hall in road games this year is 11 points. A double digit loss is what I expect in this one as well based on the situational aspects of this match-up. 8* CREIGHTON |
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02-16-19 | La Salle +7.5 v. St. Louis | 49-62 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #687 Saturday 8* La Salle Explorers (+) @ St Louis Billikens @ 5 ET - Five weeks ago La Salle hosted St Louis and the line was the Billikens -4.5 on the road. Now they are at home hosting the Explorers so one would naturally expect St Louis to be favored by double digits here. They are not and, trust me, it is no mistake. This is a classic case of hot versus cold and I also like the fact that La Salle is healthier now than they were in that mid-January match-up. Additionally, they might get freshman Jack Clark back for this game and he has been a key contributor in limited action this season. The Explorers enter this game having won 5 of their last 6 games. The Billikens are in a letdown spot as they are off a win that snapped a 1-5 stretch (both SU and ATS) and they have a full week off after this game before another big game with Dayton. Will St Louis make the mistake of overlooking La Salle and trying to "coast" in their upcoming break? I would not be surprised to see this one play out exactly like that as the Billkens already won at La Salle this season plus have dominated recent meetings with the Explorers in St Louis. The situational aspects of this one mean that we have great value with the big road dog in this one. The Explorers are 6-1 ATS in road games this season and 4-1 ATS this season when off a win over a conference foe. The Billikens are 3-6 ATS this season after allowing 60 points or less in their prior game. St Louis is also an ugly 6-12 ATS as a favorite this season. 8* LA SALLE |
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02-15-19 | St. Joe's +11 v. Davidson | 72-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #853 Friday 8* St Joseph's Hawks (+) @ Davidson Wildcats @ 7 ET - This is a revenge game for the Wildcats and they are at the top of the Atlantic Ten standings while the Hawks are down near the bottom. However, this game is likely to prove troublesome for Davidson. They may get their revenge but I expect their win to be by single digits. The Wildcats have a huge game on deck with Dayton. The Flyers are just a game behind Davidson. Though the Wildcats certainly want revenge for their one point loss at St Joseph's last month, the fact is that is hard for Davidson not to already have Dayton on their mind. The Hawks just lost some bench depth with the Lodge injury and he joins an injury list that includes Kimble and Oliva. However, Lodge is a back-up and neither Kimble or Oliva were available for the first game against the Wildcats either. The Hawks are off a horrific shooting effort versus St Bonaventure Tuesday as they were held below 30% from the field. That has happened only twice before this season. Each time, St Joseph's covered their next game. Also, the Hawks allowed 51% from the field. Each of the last 4 times that St Joseph's has allowed 49% or better from the field, they've covered their next game all 4 times! The point is that this is a bounce back spot for the Hawks off a very ugly game and they don't play again for a full week after this one. In other words, St Joseph's is absolutely going to go all out here in a huge effort with a chance to again knock off the team that is at the top of the A-10 standings! The Wildcats are 9-2 SU in Atlantic Ten action but only 2 of those 9 wins have come by more than 11 points. Grab the generous points being offered to the Hawks in this one! 8* ST JOSEPH'S |
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02-15-19 | Buffalo -2.5 v. Toledo | Top | 88-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #877 Friday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bulls (-) @ Toledo Rockets @ 7 ET - This is a revenge game for the Rockets and, of course, they are happy to have the rematch at home. However, coming into this season Toledo was projected by most to be only about the 3rd best team in the MAC West. As for the MAC East, Buffalo was expected to be the top team there and they have met those expectations. The point is that the Bulls are doing what was expected of them while the Rockets have overachieved a bit. Overall on the season Buffalo has played a slightly tougher schedule too. These key factors, in my opinion, are combining to give us some solid line value here with the Bulls as a very short road favorite in this one. Sure the Rockets want revenge badly here but, keep in mind, this game is ultra-important to Buffalo too! It is not just about the Bulls being a Top 25 team and wanting to remain in the rankings, it is also the fact that Buffalo is currently battling with Bowling Green for the top spot in the East Division of the MAC. The Rockets have been helped by the fact that they play in the West which is the weaker division of the MAC this season. Also, note that the Bulls are a long-term 23-8 ATS in road games in which their line ranges from pick'em to a -3. As for Toledo, they could be a little rusty here with some extra time off leading into this game and the Rockets have covered just 3 of their last 9 games when they enter a match-up with 5 or 6 days of rest between games. The Bulls are 3-0 SU and ATS in the last 3 meetings between these teams and they make it 4 in a row here. 10* BUFFALO |
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02-13-19 | 76ers -9 v. Knicks | 126-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #509 Wednesday NBA 8* Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ New York Knicks @ 7:35 ET - The Celtics Gordon Hayward whom has averaged ONE made three-pointer per game went 6 for 7 from beyond the arc last night which was undoubtedly the difference in the game. Boston won at Philly by 3 points and Hayward had 15 more points than usual from beyond the arc. Flip that around to normal and the Sixers win the game by a DOZEN points. In any event, sometimes crazy stuff does happen in these games and, as a result of last night's nonsense, you're going to see a HIGHLY motivated Philadelphia team taking the court in New York tonight. While the Knicks have another game tomorrow before the All Star break, this is it for the Sixers. After this game Philly doesn't play again until a full WEEK from Thursday. In other words Philly is going to make this one count and I expect them to take advantage of a very bad, and downtrodden, Knicks team. New York has lost 17 straight games. The last two losses have been tight defeats but 12 of the 15 prior losses in this streaks have all come by 9 or more points. When Philly wins, they generally cover. In fact the Sixers ATS record is 22-3 (88%) in their last 25 SU wins. Per all of the above stats you can see why that if one expects Philly to win SU one can also expect them to win ATS. This game has road rout written all over it and I don't see the 76ers being denied. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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02-13-19 | Pistons +5.5 v. Celtics | Top | 110-118 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #505 Wednesday 10* Top Play Detroit Pistons (+) @ Boston Celtics @ 7:35 ET - The Celtics Gordon Hayward whom has averaged ONE made three-pointer per game in his CAREER went 6 for 7 from beyond the arc last night which was undoubtedly the difference in Boston's upset win over the 76ers. The Celtics won at Philly by 3 points yesterday and Hayward had 15 more points than usual from beyond the arc. Flip that around to normal and Boston loses the game by a DOZEN points. In any event, sometimes crazy stuff does happen in these games and, as a result of highly unlikely shooting result leading to an emotional upset win for the Celtics, this is pure and simple a flat spot for Boston. Of course that is why odds maker opened this line up with the Celtics favored by less than a half dozen points even though they are on their home floor. Keep in mind Kyrie Irving has been out for Boston and I would be very surprised to see him return tonight considering this is the Celtics final game before the All Star break. The smart thing to do is to let him continue to rest his knee and have continued rest then through the break. Boston had failed to cover 3 straight games before the unlikely upset win last night. Conversely, the Pistons enter this game having won (and covered) 4 straight games. Detroit also has covered its last two games against the Celtics and has the size in the paint to give Boston some trouble. This is especially true when the Pistons have a significant rest edge like they do here. The Celtics are 3-5 SU (and 2-6 ATS!) this season in the 2nd game of a back to back. Detroit is playing with a lot of confidence right now and has done well all season when in a situation like this. That is, the Pistons are 8-5 ATS (and 10-3 SU!) when off a game in which they scored 115 points or more! This one has upset written all over it and I am happy to grab the generous points being offered. 10* DETROIT |
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02-13-19 | Providence v. Villanova -11 | Top | 67-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #782 Wednesday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Providence Friars @ 6:30 ET - I got burned going against the Friars on Saturday with the Red Storm. No one expected that St John's would be without Mustapha Heron in that game but it made me feel like a fool when he was listed as the key player in my write-up and then 30 minutes before the game it was announced he wouldn't play. How important was he? Heron came back last night and scored 28 points in the OT win for the Red Storm over Butler. The point is that Providence, though they still deserve credit of course for the Saturday win, were very fortunate that Heron didn't play as it resulted in St John's being completely out of rhythm in that game. Now the Friars, after being in the right place at the right time, are in a complete 180 situation and are in the wrong place at the wrong time! Villanova is at home and coming off a one point loss at Marquette on Saturday. SU losses have been rare for the Wildcats this season and they are known for responding after a defeat. Nova is 3-0 ATS the last 3 times they were off a SU loss. This spread is double digits but it is justified. The Cats led the Friars by 18 points at halftime at Providence early last month. The Friars, at home, were able to claw back into the game in the 2nd half. However, on the road, that will not happen and this is particularly true when you consider the angry mindset of the Wildcats team they are facing here. Providence is 8-10 ATS this season against teams with a winning record. Villanova is 14-6 ATS this season against teams with a winning record. The Wildcats turn this into a home blowout. 10* VILLANOVA |
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02-12-19 | Celtics v. 76ers -6 | Top | 112-109 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Game #574 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 8:05 ET - The 76ers are a much different team than the ones that the Celtics have dominated in recent meetings. Not only did Boston knock Philly out of the playoffs in 5 games in May, the Celtics also have won each of the first two meetings this season. However, not only were those games at Boston and this one is in Philadelphia, the Sixers also are now stacked. Not only do they now have a "Big Four" with Embiid, Simmons, Butler and Harris, the 76ers also still have JJ Redick and the sharp-shooter is currently red hot from beyond the arc. They are loaded with weapons while the Celtics are actually down a key one today as Kyrie Irving (knee) has been downgraded to out for this game! Boston is 9-17 ATS this season in road games and also just 3-6 ATS as an underdog this season. All 3 of those wins were outright upset wins. In other words, the Celtics have not covered a single game this season that they've lost SU as an underdog. That said, note that Philly is quite likely to get the SU win here. The 76ers are 23-6 SU at home this season. In other words, the odds are heavily stacked in our favor here for a Sixers win and cover. In terms of technical support for the 76ers, Philly is 35-13 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - when the Sixers are facing them in the 2nd half of the season. Overall the 76ers are a fantastic 72-43 ATS long-term in home games. The Celtics have been slumping and are on a 5-11 ATS run and Boston is in the wrong place at the wrong time. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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02-12-19 | St Bonaventure v. St. Joe's -1 | Top | 76-51 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #602 Tuesday 10* Top Play St Joseph's Hawks (-) vs St Bonaventure Bonnies @ 6:30 ET - This line was as high as a -3 on St Joseph's early on when lines first came out yesterday afternoon. It has since dropped to very nearly a pick'em and this is offering superb line value on the home team. This is a big-time revenge game and I look for the Hawks to get home revenge in this one just like they did when they blasted the Billikens on Friday. Earlier this season St Joseph's had lost at St Louis and shot just 29.5% from the field in the embarrassing loss. The Hawks got payback in Philly Friday. Similar situation here. St Joseph's lost badly at St Bonaventure and shot 29.1% in the defeat and now it is payback time in Philly as they host the Bonnies. Though the Hawks are short-handed, including being without Lamarr Kimble, that problem is mitigated by the fact that St Joseph's enters this game with 3 days off and they have 2 days off after this. In other words, it is no problem to fully utilize all hands on deck fully in this one and that worked just fine when they blasted St Louis by 30 on Friday. The Hawks are catching the Bonnies at the right time as St Bonaventure has been held to below 30% from the field (including horrific 3-point shooting performances) in each of their last two games. Off back to back losses, St Bonaventure has scored an average of just 53 points per game in their last two games. The Bonnies are just 4-9 SU on the road this season while the Hawks are a solid 9-3 SU at home this season. St Bonaventure is just 2-4 SU and ATS this season when off a game in which they were held to just 60 points or less. The Hawks are a perfect 3-0 SU this season in a home game where the total is 135 to 139.5 points. 10* ST JOSEPH'S |
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02-11-19 | Hornets +5.5 v. Pacers | 90-99 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #555 Monday 8* Charlotte Hornets (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - It looks easy to take the Pacers on their home floor here and, of course, that is what many are doing as the early line has gone from -4 to as high as a -5.5 as of early game day morning. Of course you know what happens when something looks easy. Everyone sees a Pacers team that has won 5 straight games and has a 37-19 record on the season and is hosting a Hornets teams that has an overall losing record on the year. It was easy to predict what would happen here in terms of line movement and now I am stepping in on the other side of the move and grabbing the extra value. Charlotte is hell-bent on getting revenge here after they got embarrassed by 25 points in their most recent match-up here at Indiana about 3 weeks ago. Charlotte had won and covered each of their two prior meetings with the Pacers before losing the most recent game 120-95. Look for the Hornets to improve to 10-5 ATS (and SU) against Central Division opponents with an upset win here. However, I am happy to grab the available points as added insurance should they fall short of the upset. Indiana has shot the ball extremely well the last 3 games but it is such a high percentage (55%) it is certainly not sustainable and the Pacers have been held to a combined 43.7% from the field the last two times they've hosted the Hornets. Similar result expected here! 8* CHARLOTTE |
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02-10-19 | Cincinnati v. Houston -4 | 58-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #830 Sunday 8* Houston Cougars (-) vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 4 ET - Solid line value here with Houston at home. The Bearcats have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these teams even though there has been a statistical anomaly that would suggest otherwise. The Cougars have had more field goal attempts in all 3 of those games versus Cincinnati but have fallen short due to buckets not falling. The 3 meetings last season saw Houston have 25 more field goal attempts than the Bearcats yet they won only one of the games. Also, the Cougars lost the most important one (by a single point) when Cincy knocked them out of the conference tourney. It is payback time here. Houston is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season as a home favorite in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. Cincinnati is 0-3 ATS this season in games with a posted total in the 120s. Also, the Bearcats are on a 2-6 ATS run as an underdog. The Cougars are 13-2 SU (and 10-5 ATS) in February games and they get their revenge here. 8* HOUSTON |
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02-10-19 | Lakers v. 76ers -6.5 | 120-143 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Game #544 Saturday 8* Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 3:35 ET - How are good are the Sixers now after all the Tobias Harris trade? Truly, they are quite stacked and they proved that in the win over one of the top teams in the league when they won and covered against the Nuggets on Friday. What was most impressive about the win is that the Sixers Big Four of Harris, Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, and Jimmy Butler averaged only 15.8 points in that game. The bench scored 20 points. So what was the key to victory? The Sixers "forgotten" fifth starter as JJ Redick absolutely "went off" for a season high 34 points and was 6 for 7 from three point land. The way that game played out shows just how dangerous this Philly team can be as they truly have weapons at all 5 positions. The fact that Embiid was battling illness and made just 4 of 17 from the field and yet the 76ers still won and covered says a lot. The scary thing for opponents is that they will likely be even better today as this will be their 2nd game together with Harris as a starter and Boban Marjanovic and Mike Scott coming off the bench. Philadelphia is 22-6 SU at home this season. What about the all important cover? Dating back to late November, Philly has 21 wins and they only failed to cover in 3 of the 21 victories. In other words, when the Sixers win, they almost always get the cash. They're catching the Lakers at the perfect time for a big win as they catch LA off the big upset win at Boston. Los Angeles is still just 12-15 SU on the road this season and when they lose they rarely get the cash! The Lakers have managed the cover in only 3 of their 27 losses this season! This game has home blowout written all over it. 8* PHILADELPHIA |
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02-09-19 | Villanova +2 v. Marquette | 65-66 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #651 Saturday 8* Villanova Wildcats (+) @ Marquette Golden Eagles @ 2:30 ET - This line opened up right around a pick'em and has risen now to as high as a -2 on Marquette. This is not a surprise to be as the Golden Eagles are at home and are 14-1 SU in home games this season. Also, that lone loss just happened as Marquette lost versus St John's on Tuesday. Though they rallied back in the 1-point loss lets not forget they were down 15 points to the Red Storm in the 2nd half of their game. Now perhaps Marquette was looking ahead to this showdown with Villanova but the Wildcats also might have been looking ahead when they had to go to OT to beat Creighton on Wednesday. There is an old handicapping adage that says don't play teams off of an overtime win. However, I am here to say that there is no doubt that the Wildcats enter this game feeling much more confident heading into Marquette off an 11 point win in comparison with how the Golden Eagles feel seeing their home winning streak end. Also, that St John's team that Marquette just lost to in Milwaukee is the same Red Storm team that Villanova hosted 5 weeks ago and beat by 5. The key story line there was the Wildcats were down by 13 early in the game and also trailed by 5 with under 3 and 1/2 minutes to go. Villanova outscored St John's by 10 over the final 3 and 1/2 minutes. Not to take anything away from Golden Eagles coach Steve Wojciechowski but Wildcats coach Jay Wright is 15 years his senior. The point is Wildcats still the stronger team at closing out games and Villanova is not yet ready to relinquish their seemingly annual spot as the top team in the Big East. The Wildcats lost at Marquette two years ago but that was because they shot 17.6% from three point land while the Golden Eagles shot 47.4% from three point land. Villanova still only lost that game by two points and I don't expect a repeat of that type of shooting performance here. In fact, Marquette has not had "the touch" from three point land in home games this season that they've shown in past seasons. Against St John's, Seton Hall, Wisconsin, UTEP, Kansas State the Eagles had sub-par shooting efforts from beyond the arc and the Wildcats know they can't let Marquette beat them with wide open threes. Nova has won 12 of the last 13 meetings between these teams and the lone loss came by just 2 points on a night when the Wildcats were shooting so bad they couldn't hit the ocean standing 20 feet from the water! That won't happen again here. 8* VILLANOVA |
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02-09-19 | Providence v. St. John's -6 | 70-56 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 41 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #612 Saturday 8* St John's Red Storm vs Providence Friars @ Noon ET - This line opened up at a 7.5 and is now down to a 6 as expected. That is why I have waited and let the markets do their thing. Many are looking at Providence here since they've won 3 straight games over St John's but "that was then and this is now". The key for the Red Storm coming into this season was the eligibility of Mustapha Heron. With Heron playing all season long St John's has been much better than many expected. He combines with Shamorie Ponds to give the Red Storm one of the best backcourts in the Big East. The weakness of St John's is size and depth in the frontcourt and that can be a problem against some teams in the Big East. However, Providence is also a guard-heavy team and their key big man is only a sophomore and I don't expect him to "go off" in this game as St John's 6'7 230lb Marvin Clark has enough size to make sure of that and he is a senior. One of the problems for the Friars is that, even though AJ Reeves is now back, he is still having a horrible time trying to get back into rhythm and has truly been unproductive. The Friars shooting percentage as a team has been atrocious in their last 4 games and it comes as no surprise that they enter this game having lost 3 straight SU and 3 of their last 4 ATS. The Red Storm are 10-2 SU at home this season and are going to make the most of what is just the 2nd home game they've had since mid-January! Providence is 3-7 ATS in conference action this season while the host here is 7-3 ATS in Big East games. Those trends continue here. 8* ST JOHN'S |
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02-08-19 | Nuggets v. 76ers -4.5 | Top | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #502 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Denver Nuggets @ 7:05 ET - Both these teams are looking to respond off back to back losses. Also, both the Nuggets and 76ers have fared well against the opposing conference this season. However, there are two key factors that strongly favor the Sixers here. First off, the huge trade with the Clippers that included Tobias Harris is going to lead to a ton of positive energy for Philly in this one. Secondly, that energy level is going to be boosted even higher here because this game is at Philadelphia with the home court edge being a huge factor in this one. The Nuggets are on an ugly 3-12 ATS run in home games! Conversely, the 76ers are a long-term 70-43 ATS in home games. Also, Philly has not lost 3 straight games this season. In other words, you can fully expect the bounce back here with a home victory. However, what about the all important cover? Philadelphia is 9-2 ATS this season when off a divisional game and they are fired up after the ugly loss to the Raptors. Also, the Sixers are 9-1 SU (and 8-2 ATS!) this season when off a loss by a double digit margin! Long-term the 76ers are 35-17 ATS when off a loss by a margin of 10 or more points! The Nuggets, of course, are also looking to bounce back here but they are an ugly 2-6 ATS this season when off an upset loss as a favorite. Also, Denver is an ugly 3-8 ATS in road games with a posted total of 220 points or more. While all 3 Sixers acquisitions from the Clippers are listed as probable for tonight, the Nuggets Gary Harris has been ruled out for this game and Paul Millsap is questionable with his ankle injury still a factor. The Sixers have held 9 of their last 11 opponents to 47% or less from the field. Denver has allowed their last 4 opponents to average 51.4% from the field! Look for the Nuggets to drop to 3-9 ATS this season when off a game in which they allowed 115 points or more. Home blowout here for Sixers rejuvenated with the Harris acquisition. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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02-07-19 | Clippers +6 v. Pacers | Top | 92-116 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #575 Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Clippers (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - This is one of my typical contrarian plays. The first line that popped up on this game was a -4 early this morning. Keep in mind this is after the public just watched the Pacers destroy the Lakers at home on Tuesday and hand LeBron James the worst loss of his career. Now Indiana is at home again and they're facing the "other" LA team that just traded away Tobias Harris (plus two other role players) to the 76'ers. So, of course, the betting masses are jumping all over the Pacers here and the line got driven up to a -6. I have said this many times before and will say it again here...actually, I will say two things. First off, anything can happen in any game but the key in this business is to always try and have the odds in your favor. That said, my second comment/question as I have stated before is - do you really think the odds makers are stupid? The point being that they are well aware of the impact of the trade. They certainly know Indiana is the home team in this game. Yet they set the line at a 4 with good reason. The betting markets jump all over it and now I am happy to fade the masses and grab the Clippers here. Watch LA "rally the troops" tonight while the Pacers get caught still feeling a little too good about themselves after the blowout of LeBron and Company on Tuesday. Keep in mind, Indiana is playing for the 3rd time in 4 nights. Also, prior to the win over the Lakers, the Pacers were on a 1-5 ATS run. Indiana is also 4-9 ATS this season after scoring 115 points or more. Long-term, the Pacers are an ugly 1-5 ATS (and SU!) when off a game in which they scored 130 points or more. In other words, don't be surprised if the Clips pull off the upset tonight. I am grabbing the "insurance" with having the points however and am happy to have a half dozen points on my side. The Clippers are 4-1 ATS their last 5 road games, on a 16-8 ATS run in February games, and are 20-11 ATS when they enter a game having played each of their 3 prior games on the road. 10* LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS |
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02-06-19 | VCU -6.5 v. George Washington | Top | 60-50 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #795 Wednesday 10* Top Play Virginia Commonwealth Rams @ George Washington Colonials @ 7 ET - This line opened up at nearly double digits but, as of early game day morning, it has dropped to as low as a 6.5 in some big books. This is a great value add for us as we can get a Rams team that I do expect to win by double digits and yet we're laying only about a half-dozen points. Yes, Virginia Commonwealth is on the road here but that is actually part of the key to this play. What that does is keep the line manageable. Had the Rams been at home they would have opened up at around 15 points for sure. The other key about being on the road is that is often how revenge can best be served! VCU is absolutely out for revenge on this very court where they got thoroughly embarrassed last season by a final score of 80 to 56. For this season's rematch, Virginia Commonwealth enters with a solid 15-6 season while George Washington in currently struggling through an ugly 7-14 campaign. The Colonials are off a home win but that came against a bad Fordham team that is just 1-6 on the road this season. Prior to that win, George Washington had lost 5 of their 6 prior games and the average margin of defeat was 9.6 points in those 5 losses. The Rams are surging on an 8-2 SU run and the only two losses were at Rhode Island and Davidson. Those teams are a combined 17-2 SU at home this season! By comparison, the Colonials are 5-7 SU at home this season. By the way, the VCU wins in their 8-2 stretch their last 10 games have come by an average margin of 13 points per victory! The Rams are 20-9 ATS in a road game where the total is 130 to 134.5 points. George Washington is 7-14 ATS when off a win in conference action! 10* VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH |
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02-06-19 | Connecticut v. Temple -3.5 | 63-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #782 Wednesday 8* Temple Owls (-) vs Connecticut Huskies @ 6 ET - Even though the Huskies Alterique Gilbert did shoot yesterday he did not participate in practice and the expectation is that he he will not play Wednesday at Temple and will instead return to action at Memphis Sunday. Gilbert is one of Connecticut's top players so his loss is significant. This one sets up very well for the Owls. The Huskies are 1-7 straight-up away from home this season and that includes 7 straight losses with 6 of the 7 coming by 6 or more points! I certainly expect the Owls to take this one by at least a half-dozen points. Part of the key to the value here is that Connecticut has covered 4 straight games and 6 of their last 7 so that is giving them some market respect while bettors are a little down on the Owls right now. That's because Temple is on a 2-3 SU and ATS run. What is important to note about that however is that the Owls, prior to a road win at Tulane in their most recent game, had tough match-ups with Houston and Cincinnati. Of course the Cougars and Bearcats are two of the top teams in the conference and Temple covered at Houston and just missed the cover at home against Cincinnati. The Owls looked like the right side nearly the entire game and should have won the game outright. This is Temple's first home game since they let that game against Cincy get away from them. The Owls are 'chomping at the bit' to make up for that defeat here and will take advantage of a short-handed Huskies team. I look for UConn to drop to 1-4 ATS the last 5 times they have been a road dog in a range of 3.5 to 6 points. The Owls are 7-1 ATS when, past the midway point of a season, they face a team that is averaging 77 points or more on the season. 8* TEMPLE |
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02-05-19 | Raptors v. 76ers -4.5 | Top | 119-107 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #554 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - This is a great spot for the Sixers from a situational standpoint. Philly is off a loss and they have had two days off since that defeat and they have two days off after this game hosting the Raptors. In other words the 76ers are all in on this game and they're hosting a Toronto team that is expected to be short-handed with Kyle Lowry listed as doubtful (back). The home team is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these teams. 4 of those 5 wins have come by a double digit margin and, in fact, the average margin of victory has been 15 points in those 5 wins. Philadelphia got upset as a favorite at Sacramento Saturday but they are 6-2 ATS the last 8 times they've been off a SU loss. The Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Sixers are 27-16 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest between games. The 76ers are also 33-12 ATS when, in the 2nd half of a season, they are a facing a team that averages 106 points or more per game. Philly is looking to close the gap with Toronto in the Atlantic Division standings and I expect them to get the job done in a big way with strong situational edges here. Of course Lowry being likely to miss this game makes the spot an even stronger one as you know the former Villanova star would love to be playing in Philly tonight but is unlikely the Raptors are going to risk a lot with Lowry so close to the All Star break. Play PHILADELPHIA |
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02-05-19 | St. Joe's v. La Salle -1 | 69-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #602 Tuesday 8* La Salle Explorers (-) vs St Joseph's Hawks @ 7 ET - This is a big rivalry game in Philly and the home team has won both games each of the last two seasons. Yes, the Explorers have a poor record this season but they've won 3 straight games and I really like what I have seen from La Salle's playing rotation of late. They have meshed well and certainly the same can not be said for the Hawks. St Joseph's has won just 2 of their 5 games since losing star Lamarr Kimble to a hand injury. Keep in mind those two victories came at home and came against two of the worst teams in the Atlantic Ten. While it is true the Explorers also have a poor record, the fact is they are playing very well of late plus this game is AT La Salle. These are key factors as is the recent return to form of Saul Phiri. He has made 13 of 25 three pointers in his last 4 games and averaged 13.3 points per game during this stretch. Combining with Isiah Deas and Pookie Powell, the veteran guard combinations of the Explorers lead them to a home win here. Coming into this season St Joseph's was counting on Kimble as well as relying on contributions from Pierfrancesco Oliva (also out) and Anthony Longpre (questionable with a concussion). The healthier and more confident team gets the win here. 8* LA SALLE |
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02-05-19 | South Carolina v. Kentucky -15.5 | Top | 48-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach CBB Game #618 Tuesday 10* Top Play Kentucky Wildcats (-) vs South Carolina Gamecocks @ 7 ET - Long-time followers know I rarely lay big points and for me to do so requires exactly the ideal situation. This particular case is the text book example of a perfect time to lay big points with a favorite that is set up perfectly to absolutely crush their opponent by 20+ points. The very first number that popped up on this game yesterday afternoon was 18 and it is down to a 15.5 as of early this morning. Both teams are off wins but while Kentucky had a "growth game" for its, as usual, young roster by rallying for a win; the Gamecocks were off a wire to wire win but that was thanks to hitting an insanely high percentage of their three pointers. That won't happen again here. The Wildcats have been patiently waiting for this opportunity. Last season the Cats led the Gamecocks by 14 in the 2nd half and then they watched Chris Silva take over for South Carolina and lead them to the huge comeback win. It is payback time here and that is a key when laying big points. The point is that the Wildcats, even with a big lead, will not take their foot off the gas in this one and it is set up to be a home blowout. Kentucky's frontcourt will be a key in stopping Silva. Note that PJ Washington is now a sophomore and another big forward, senior Reid Travis was NOT with the Wildcats last season (he played his first four with Stanford). Travis has been a key player for Kentucky this season and will help Washington in slowing down Silva. As for the outside game of the Gamecocks, their three-point shooting will cool off quickly at Kentucky as the Wildcats have turned up the heat on defense (including perimeter defense) and that has played a key role in their 8 games winning streak. The Cats have covered 6 in a row too! Also, in the last 7 games of this 8-game winning streak they only had 1 poor game defensively. In the other 6 they allowed an average of only 53 points per game! Keep in mind, Kentucky is averaging 80 points per game at home this season. So if the Wildcats hold South Carolina to 53 and they hit their usual scoring average they win this 80-53. I honestly would not be surprised to see that and I do see this win coming by 20 points or more! 10* KENTUCKY |
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02-04-19 | Hawks +6 v. Wizards | Top | 137-129 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Game #533 Monday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - When you look at Monday's full NBA card you see the following teams favored: Spurs, Rockets, Pacers, Bucks, Nuggets, and Wizards. What sticks out when you look at the list? There is only one team with a losing record that is in that list and it is the team I am fading right here. Now I know the Hawks, of course, are not a great team. However, they are catching about a half-dozen points here against a Wizards team that is only 4-5 SU in their last 9 games and two of those wins came by 4 points or less. In other words, laying 6 points with Washington would result in a 2-7 ATS record their last 9 games. The Hawks are seeking revenge for a double digit loss when these teams most recently met, also in DC, in early January. Atlanta is wrapping up a 7-game road trip and, although they are still not home, the Hawks are happy to be back east again. Atlanta is 3-3 so far on this trip and is hell-bent on finishing with a winning road trip. They are going hard for the 4th win here and I expect them to be the more motivated team here. Interestingly, the Wizards have a game on deck at Milwaukee and that is the same Bucks team that they just got throttled by at home by a double digit margin Saturday. Could the Wizards overlook the Hawks? With Atlanta having a 17-35 record you better believe it! Look for the Hawks to improve to 8-4 ATS this season in road games with a posted total of 230 points or more. Washington is off an ugly loss to Milwaukee but is 2-8 ATS this season when off a game in which they allowed 130 points or more. 10* ATLANTA |
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02-04-19 | Louisville v. Virginia Tech -3.5 | Top | 72-64 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CBB Game #852 Monday 10* Top Play Virginia Tech Hokies (-) vs Louisville Cardinals @ 7 ET - The line was as high as a -6 and has dropped to 3.5 as of early Monday morning. This line move is opening up great value on the home favorite here. I understand the move as the Hokies are off a dominating win over NC State Saturday while the Cardinals are off an ugly loss versus North Carolina the same day and so many bettors are playing the zig-zag theory here. Additionally, Virginia Tech will be without guard Justin Robinson again as he his out indefinitely with a foot injury. However, Robinson didn't play Saturday either and that was a 47-24 win at NC State! As for Louisville, they were at home on Saturday versus North Carolina but still had an ugly game and got dominated on the glass. Adding to the value with the Hokies here is the fact that they were swept by the Cardinals in last season's meetings and Louisville has won 5 straight over Virginia Tech! Coach Buzz Williams and his players are out for revenge (big-time!) on Monday night and being on their home floor certainly will help. The Hokies are 11-0 SU at Cassel Coliseum this season and they are beginning a three-game homestand with this revenge opportunity tonight. The Cardinals are just 4-4 SU this season in their games played away from Louisville. Only one of the Hokies 18 wins this season has come by less than 6 points and in fact, 15 of the 18 victories have come by a double digit margin. Look for another home blowout here. 10* VIRGINIA TECH |
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02-02-19 | Alabama v. Auburn -9 | Top | 63-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #746 Saturday 10* Top Play Auburn Tigers (-) vs Alabama Crimson Tide @ 8 ET - The Tigers have had to wait a long time for this rematch and I fully expect a home blowout here. Last March, in the SEC Tournament, Auburn led Alabama by double digits at the half. By virtue of a great shooting performance for the Crimson Tide and a horrible shooting performance for the Tigers, Alabama had a huge 2nd half and won the game by 18 points! It was a beatdown (outscored by 28 in the 2nd half) that Auburn most certainly has not forgotten and it is payback time here. The Tigers are the better team this season, they are at home, and they are playing with big-time revenge. That is why I am willing to lay a big number here as I feel strongly that Auburn will get a double digit lead here and then, because of what happened in March, the Tigers absolutely will keep their foot on the gas! The Crimson Tide are off a big win but that was at home against Mississippi State. Prior to knocking off the Bulldogs, Alabama had lost 4 of 6. The Tigers are a huge 10-1 this season and the lone loss was to Kentucky! The 10 home wins for Auburn have been games decided by a victory margin of 30.2 points! You read that right...THIRTY point margin of victory on average! Another home blowout expected here as the Tigers get revenge in a big way! 10* AUBURN |
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02-02-19 | Youngstown State +5.5 v. Detroit | 72-70 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
ATS Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #623 Saturday 8* Youngstown State Penguins (+) @ Detroit Mercy Titans @ 1 ET - The scrappy Penguins continue to be road warriors. Yes this is a match-up of two of the weaker teams in the Horizon League but these are the types of situations that can create great value with a hungry underdog and that is the case here. Youngstown State is off of an upset win at Oakland Thursday. The Penguins are now 3-1 ATS when they are a road dog of 5 or more points and all 3 of those wins were outright upsets! Youngstown State won at IUPUI and Wisconsin-Milwaukee in addition to the Thursday win. The Penguins will be extra hungry here as, even though Detroit Mercy is off back to back poor seasons, the Titans continue to have Youngstown State's number. Detroit beat the Penguins at Youngstown State in late December and now it is payback time. With each road win, the confidence of the Penguins continues to grow. Also, Youngstown State is 5-1 ATS when on short rest (1 day or less) this season while Detroit Mercy is 8-12 ATS when facing a team with a losing record after the mid-way point in a season. Look for the typical Titans late season fade to be in full effect here. Keep in mind, though Detroit Mercy is off a win they previously were 2-4 SU and ATS in their six prior games and their defense has been atrocious. The Titans allowed an average of 83.3 points per game in this 6-game stretch. Detroit fits the bill as a false favorite here and though I do expect yet another road upset for the scrappy Penguins, I will grab the points as added insurance should they fall a bucket or two short. 8* YOUNGSTOWN STATE |
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02-01-19 | Grizzlies v. Hornets -4.5 | Top | 92-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #582 Friday 10* Top Play Charlotte Hornets (-) vs Memphis Grizzlies @ 7:05 ET - The Hornets had a 6-8 January but 10 of their 14 games were on the road! Charlotte is a different team when they are at home. They've won 3 straight home games and the average victory margin in those games was 16 points. Also, the Hornets run at home goes further back than that. They're 7-1 in all home games since mid-December and the 7 wins all came by 9 or more points with an average victory margin of 15.6 per win! While Charlotte, despite a sub-.500 record, is battling for the top spot in the Southeast Division, the Grizzlies are 12 games below .500 and in the basement of the Southwest Division. Memphis also had let it be know that they were willing to take offers on a Conley/Gasol package but they were trying to unload Parsons contract as part of the deal. In any event, the point is that the Grizzlies are in disarray right now while the Hornets are batting hard for the division lead as we head closer to the All-Star break. Memphis has lost 16 of their last 18 games! The Grizzlies are 0-8 in their last 8 road games and they lost those games by an average margin of 13.8 points per defeat! The Hornets are 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings between these teams and the very first line that popped up on this game yesterday was 6.5 but it has dropped to 4.5 and I am grabbing the great value with the small home favorite. 10* CHARLOTTE |
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02-01-19 | Northern Kentucky v. IUPU-Indianapolis +4 | 77-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
ATS Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #864 Friday 8* IUPUI Jaguars (+) vs Northern Kentucky Norse @ 7 ET - The very first line that opened up on this one had the Norse at only -2 and that line got driven up to as high as a -4 as expected. As per usual, I am on the other side of the move. Of course it looked for bettors to take 18-4 Northern Kentucky at such a low number against a 13-9 IUPUI team but the key here is home court. The Norse are just 3-6 ATS in road games this season. They're coming off a great defensive effort at home versus UW-Milwaukee but they are 1-5 ATS this season when off a game in which they allowed 60 points or less. Also, Northern Kentucky is just 2-7 ATS this season in games against teams with a winning record. The Jaguars are a long-term 25-10 SU in home games and that includes 8-2 this season. Also, IUPUI has revenge on their minds as they've lost all 3 games against the Norse in Horizon League action. Though the Jags lost at Northern Kentucky in late December, IUPUI actually had 13 more field goal attempts than the Norse but it was simply an extraordinary shooting night for Northern Kentucky. That is highly unlikely to be repeated on the road and it will be the Jaguars that are likely to have the better shooting night (thanks to their home floor) in the rematch. Keep in mind, compared to last season's team, the Jags now have a Vandy transfer (Camron Justice) leading the way and I can see him taking over in a big game like this. Look for the Jaguars to improve to a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS the last 3 times they've been a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points. I am grabbing the points! 8* IUPUI |
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01-31-19 | Texas-San Antonio v. Western Kentucky -6 | 88-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
ATS Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #634 Thursday 8* Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-) vs UTSA Roadrunners @ 8 ET - This is an ideal set-up. UTSA is off of their miracle win at home against Old Dominion Saturday where the Roadrunners were down huge late but had an unreal rally in the final minutes for the last second win. Now UTSA goes back on the road where they lost (and failed to cover) each of their past two games. In fact, home teams are now on a 6-0 ATS run in Roadrunners games. Adding to the value here is they're heading to Western Kentucky and this Hilltoppers team has revenge on its mind. Not only did the Hilltoppers lose at UTSA last season, they also were knocked out of the CUSA Tourney the prior spring. That makes this a double revenge spot and Western Kentucky is at home and has played a tougher schedule in comparison with the Roadrunners. The Hilltoppers are 10-5 ATS when facing a team with a winning record this season. Also, they won by 15 the last time they hosted UTSA. The Roadrunners are 1-3 ATS the last 4 times they've been a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points. That is the range that this one opened up in and now that it has dropped to a 6 there is even more value with the host as I am expecting a home blowout in this one. The Hilltoppers are off a loss but that game was at Louisiana Tech and now they are at home where they've won 4 of their last 5 including wins over St Mary's and Wisconsin in non-conference action. 8* WESTERN KENTUCKY |
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01-31-19 | Mavs +2 v. Pistons | Top | 89-93 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Game #571 Thursday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (+) @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - Though this is a back to back spot for the Mavericks, there are a couple of key factors as to why there is plenty of value here. First off, Dallas blew out the Knicks so easily last night that no one played more than 29 minutes. Secondly, that game was preceded by 2 off days. Also, up next for the Mavericks is a stretch that sees them with just 1 game in the first 5 days of February. In other words, Dallas will go all out here and they are a hot 5-0 ATS their last 5 games. Additionally, the Mavericks are actually on a 3-1 ATS run the last 4 times they've played the 2nd game of a back to back and that stretch included games at Portland, at Oklahoma City, at Philadelphia, and versus the Clippers. All 4 of those teams are much tougher opponents than this stumbling and bumbling dysfunctional Pistons squad. Detroit enter this game on a 5-12 SU run. Lets also not forget about the East/West factor. In non-conference games the Pistons are 7-10 SU this season. As for the Mavericks, with last night's blowout win, they are now 13-5 ATS in non-conference games. Also, Dennis Smith Jr had a triple double last night and the Mavs are a perfect 4-0 ATS in the 4 games since he returned to the lineup as he is a key running mate with Luke Doncic and this is a dangerous Dallas team when they are on the floor together. Of course the Pistons would like to get revenge for last week's loss at Dallas but the Mavericks are fighting even harder than Detroit has been when it comes to staying alive in their respective conference playoff races. The Pistons are 4-9 SU when off a double digit loss. The Mavs are 26-13 ATS against teams that allow 106 points or more per game. 10* DALLAS |
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01-30-19 | Marquette v. Butler -2.5 | Top | 76-58 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CBB Game #784 Wednesday 10* Top Play Butler Bulldogs (-) vs Marquette Golden Eagles @ 6:30 ET - To the casual observer this line will look "off" but it is truly anything but. The betting markets may be a little confused as to how a Top Ten Marquette team that has won 7 straight games can be in the range of a 3-point dog against a Butler team that has lost 6 of its last 9 games. After all, take a look at the records too: Golden Eagles (18-3, 7-1 Big East) and the Bulldogs (12-9, 3-5 Big East). Wow, the odds makers made a big mistake, right? Long-time followers know how I feel about that. Many will be lining up on Marquette here but sharps will be on Butler as this game has home rout written all over it. The Golden Eagles are off an improbable win at Xavier as they were down by double digits to the Musketeers in the 2nd half. How did they do it? Ridiculous 3-point shooting which won't be repeated here. Marquette made 56% of their three pointers Saturday and that was in a road game folks. The Golden Eagles previously had one other insane road performance when they knocked down 57.1% of their threes at Creighton in a game they still only won by 2 points. Other than that, Marquette has been held to 28% from beyond the arc in their other 3 true road games (at Georgetown, St. Johns, and Indiana). The Bulldogs are a tough team to face at Butler and they're knocking down 40% of their threes in home games this season. They have played at Creighton and have faced Villanova and St John's in their last 3 games. Battle tested and ready for a statement win tonight, the Bulldogs did beat the Red Storm by 9 and that is the same team that crushed these Golden Eagles by 20 before they began their 7 game winning streak which has not included facing Villanova. The point is that the Golden Eagles are a little over-rated right now and the odds makers and sharp bettors know this but the betting masses are still overly high on Marquette right now. Creates an interesting match-up tonight and I also like the fact that Butler is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season when they're at home off back to back ATS losses. Marquette is 17-27 ATS (including 2-4 ATS this season) when off a game in which they scored 80 or more points. The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS their last 5 games against the Golden Eagles and they get the cash again on Wednesday evening. 10* BUTLER |
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01-29-19 | Ohio v. Northern Illinois -4.5 | 60-71 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Game #624 Tuesday 8* Northern Illinois Huskies (-) vs Ohio University Bobcats @ 8 ET - This line has dropped all the way from, in many books, opening as high as a 7 to getting bet down to a 4.5 as of early morning on game day. I do understand the move as everyone is looking at the revenge angle for the Bobcats here. The Huskies beat them at Ohio University in overtime in their MAC opener. However, the fact that Northern Illinois was able to erase a double digit deficit early in the second half of that game on the road at Ohio U is a bad sign for the Bobcats here. This game is being played at DeKalb and the Huskies are coming off a loss. That loss was not unexpected. After beating Buffalo, the best team in the MAC, Northern Illinois went on the road and was flat, as expected, and came up short at Akron. However, the Huskies are now back home and they are 7-1 SU (and 6-1 ATS) this season when coming off a loss this season. The Bobcats are a horrible team at the free throw line and that also tells you what kind of shooters they have. Ohio U, in road games this season, is making just 38.8% from the field (30% from beyond the arc) and just 62.8% from the free throw line. Northern Illinois is making 51.2% from the field at home (including 36% three pointers) and knocking down 72.3% from the charity stripe. The Huskies top four players all provide veteran leadership. I don't see them losing back to back games as that has happened only once this season. UNI is 6-1 ATS in home games and the Bobcats are 1-5 ATS in road games. All 8 Ohio U losses this season have come by 6 or more points. The Huskies only win this season by less than a 6 point margin was their 2-point upset win of the Bulls which was an accomplishment in and of itself. The point is that you can see why I am expecting the win and the cover for the home team in this one. 8* NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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01-28-19 | Duke v. Notre Dame +14.5 | Top | 83-61 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Game #852 Monday 10* Top Play Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+) vs Duke Blue Devils @ 7 ET - With the Blue Devils off that suffocating effort on defense in their win over the Yellow Jackets Saturday, and the Fighting Irish off a blowout home loss versus Virginia the same day, everyone is lining up on Duke here (line has gone from -13 to -14.5 as of early Monday AM). The Blue Devils did get guard Tre Jones back from injury and that helped them run their full court press against Georgia Tech. However, even though Notre Dame lost senior guard Rex Pflueger to injury earlier this season and have turned to freshman Prentiss Hubb at the point, they still have done a great job of not turning the ball over. To that point, Duke is turning the ball over 13 times per game this season while Notre Dame is averaging only 10 turnovers per game. I like having the big points here with an Irish team that is off a blowout home loss and now facing a Duke team that has been struggling badly with its outside shooting for a few weeks now. From beyond the arc, the Blue Devils have been shooting a very poor percentage. That makes it tough to create a big winning margin in games and it comes as no surprise that Duke is just 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games. By the way, in games in which Tre Jones has played it is an 0-3 ATS run for the Blue Devils! Also, Duke is 0-2 ATS the past two seasons in road games where they are favored in a range of 12.5 to 15 points. When playing with one day or less of rest between games this season the Blue Devils are 2-2 SU (1-3 ATS) this season while the Fighting Irish are 2-0 SU. I expect Duke to win this game but by single digits as the Irish give a huge effort after the embarrassing home loss to the Cavaliers Saturday. 10* NOTRE DAME |
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01-27-19 | Bucks +1.5 v. Thunder | 112-118 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Game #515 Sunday 8* Milwaukee Bucks (+) @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 6:05 ET - The Thunder opened up as just a pick'em on their home floor. Of course they quickly became the popular choice of the betting markets on their home floor and the line has already moved their direction as of early Sunday morning. Look for the key to this game to be defense and that is where the Bucks have been the much more impressive team of late. Milwaukee has held 5 of its last 6 opponents to 41.9% or less from the field. Conversely, Oklahoma City is allowing opponents to hit 50.1% from the field their last 8 games! While it is true that the Thunder have won 4 straight games they are also just 5-5 their last 10 games. The Bucks have not only won 6 straight games, they've also gone 17-3 their last 20 games. 8* MILWAUKEE |
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01-27-19 | Seton Hall +8.5 v. Villanova | 52-80 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
PA Insider - Rickenbach CBB Game #831 Sunday 8* Seton Hall Pirates (+) @ Villanova Wildcats @ 2:30 ET - The Wildcats have won 7 straight games but 4 of their last 6 victories have come by a margin of 8 or less points. Seton Hall is "only" 12-7 on the season but, after getting blown out by a margin of 23 points in their first loss of the season, the Pirates last 6 losses have come by an average margin of just 4 points per game defeat. 5 of the 6 defeats came by a margin of 5 or less points. Look for Seton Hall to truly fit the definition of a "tough out" in this match-up with the Wildcats. The Pirates are 5-2 ATS this season as an underdog. Villanova enters this game having covered 3 straight games but that is their longest ATS streak of the season. Prior to the win at Butler in their most recent game, the last 3 times the Wildcats entered a game on an ATS winning streak of 2 or more games, they failed to cover ALL 3 times! As for the Pirates, they are off back to back non-covers. That has happened 4 other times this season with Seton Hall. All 4 occurrences have resulted in the Pirates covering their next game. A perfect 4-0 ATS run. 8* SETON HALL |
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01-26-19 | 76ers v. Nuggets -9 | Top | 110-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Game #508 Saturday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (-) vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 9:05 ET - It is evident the Sixers are treating this as a "throw away" game. Joel Embiid is being given the night off even though Philadelphia has had two days off leading into this game and also has two days off coming up after this game. Jimmy Butler is dealing with a wrist injury that is likely to keep him out of this game. Also, Wilson Chandler is out with a hamstring injury. Of course he would have loved to go against his former team but that is not going to happen. As for his former team, the Nuggets, they are in a back to back spot here BUT it was a home game for Denver last night versus Phoenix and they rolled to an easy win. That 132 to 95 victory was so easy in fact that the Nuggets were able to rest a ton throughout the game. Speaking of fresh legs for tonight, Nikola Jokic did not play last night due to suspension. He is back tonight and will be particularly tough for the Sixers to handle without Embiid on the floor. This really sets up as an all-out rout in which the Nuggets can name the final margin and certainly I expect that margin to be at least a dozen! As I noted above, Philly is essentially conceding this game. Also, the Nuggets got swept by the 76ers last season so they'll keep their foot on the gas in this one. Denver is 17-8 ATS in home games this season. Philadelphia is 9-17 ATS this season after a game in which they scored 115 points or more. They were very fortunate to beat the Spurs Wednesday and now they get blasted here. 10* DENVER |
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01-26-19 | Kansas +6 v. Kentucky | Top | 63-71 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Game #705 Saturday 10* Top Play Kansas Jayhawks (+) @ Kentucky Wildcats @ 6 ET - I am always happy to back high-quality teams when they are undervalued because the betting markets have turned against them. Keep in mind the betting markets tend to have a short-term memory. That said, there is an anti-Kansas mindset right now because the Jayhawks have covered just 1 of 7 games since the calendar turned the page to 2019. However, Kansas is still a team that is 16-3 SU this season and two of those losses game by 4 points or less! Also, the Jayhawks have played a slightly tougher schedule than Kentucky. But right now it is the Wildcats that are getting the love from bettors not only because of an 8-4 ATS run but 3 straight covers. Again, the short-term memory! Now there is no disputing that Kentucky is a great team but lets not just hand this game to the Wildcats! Kansas has won the turnover battle by a combined 35-23 in their last two meetings. That has helped lead to the Jayhawks having 22 more shot attempts from the field in the last two games (both Kansas wins) in the last two meetings between these highly regarded basketball powerhouses. Kentucky is on a 9-15 ATS run in January games and they are over-priced here, in my opinion, because the Cats are on an ATS run while Kansas is on an overall ATS slide. The fact is, of course, the Jayhawks are highly talented and very well-coached. Of course they can rise up for a game like this and if they do fall short I expect it to only be by a bucket or two. Upset is very possible here! Kansas has failed to cover the spread in 3 straight games. That is the first time that has happened this season. It happened 3 times in the past two seasons and, every single time, the Jayhawks won and covered their very next game. Look for that to be the result this time as well. 10* KANSAS |
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01-26-19 | Marquette v. Xavier +3 | 87-82 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Game #632 Saturday 8* Xavier Musketeers (+) vs Marquette Golden Eagles @ 2 ET - This is the type of classic situation that has worked very well for me through the years. Marquette is highly ranked and rolling and they are facing a Xavier team that has struggled in recent games and yet the Golden Eagles were as low as a 1 point favorite here when lines first came out. Of course that immediately got pushed higher and is as high as a -3 as of game day morning. I am on the other side of this one as per usual. Why? For one thing the Golden Eagles have played a very friendly schedule loaded with home games. Note that Marquette's two neutral site games saw them win by just 3 versus Louisville and lose by 9 to Kansas. In terms of true road games, the Golden Eagles have won at Georgetown and at Creighton but neither win was by more than 3 points. In their other 2 true road games they lost at St John's by 20 and at Indiana by 23. Yes that is the same Hoosiers team that looked like they didn't even belong on the same floor as Michigan in last night's home loss to the Wolverines. The point is I feel that Marquette has really not proved much of anything on the road this season and Xavier (after a tight loss to Providence Wednesday) is going to add to their solid 9-3 SU home record on the season. Naji Marshall is listed as a game-time decision for the Musketeers but I don't see him missing this game. The Musketeers have dominated this series when at home and that will prove to be the case again here. Don't be fooled by the line on this game. Upset time here but I'll grab the points as added insurance. 8* XAVIER |