The Thunder are coming off their worst offensive performance of the season and despite alot of reg season explosiveness look like they are running on fumes. The Thunder did not pace themselves properly this season and played lights out hoops on most nights and  that has a way of catching up with teams. The Pacers have alot of good 3 point shooters and with the bench players  not consistently  helping the Thunder main core of starters, trouble is brewing. To me this game has possible upset written all over it and if the Pacers do lose Im betting Rick Carlisles squad wont go down without a fight. In a do or die game neither team will back down and a physical affair should be expected  Note: NBA Home teams - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite spanning a 180 game sample size since 1997 has seen the average ppg diff clicking in at +3.2 giving us almost 2 possession value on this line offering.Also Any team - in the 7th game of a playoff series going back to 1997 has seen their offensive output match their opponents out put at 94.6 to 94.6 ( 94 games) -that score might have some of leaning on the total, under, but this is the lowest total of the series and despite of some buy back and line movement, I still feel more comfortable with a side wager .

Play on the Pacers to cover

Elimination on the line for the Pacers tonight in game 6. Im betting with or without the banged up  Halliburton on the lineup the Pacers behind the top tier coaching  of  Rick Carlisle will step as will the duo McConnell and Nembhard . Pacers are also 2-1 straight-up and 3-0 ATS in  elimination tilts under Carlisle and  3-0  SUATS in Game 6s with him at the helm of the team. Also  Indiana in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses are 25-8 ATS L/33 opportunities for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Thunder when leading in a playoff series have failed to cover 5 of their L/8.

NBA Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points - off a road loss by 10 points or more, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 59-26 ATS since 1997 for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Indiana to cover

I was solidly behind a lower scoring game last time out. It started fast than slowed down as the game went into the 2nd half. Alot of trends support a lower scoring game, and the lines makers have now lowered the total offering by almost 4 points and rightly so. Im betting the Thunder ride the momentum of thier last win in game 4 in Indiana and really bring out their guns and put the metal to the metal from start to finish and force the Pacers in speeding up their attack or be blown off the court which the lines makers are expecting. NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 - in non-conference games, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 207-139 OVER for a 60% conversion rate with a combined average 228.7 ppg scored dating back to 1997.

Indiana as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points are 8-2 OVER this season. Indiana away or neutral games vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game are 13-2 OVER dating back to 2024 with.a combined average of 241.7 ppg scored.

Play over

Indiana has been able to slow down the Thunders offense, and Im betting that continues tonight. The Thunder are one of the NBAs top defenses and Im betting they press even harder now down 2 games to 1. A very physical game 4 is my prediction and a more slower deliberate pace . Under is on a 26-12-1 in the last 38 finals  games, and 10-1 UNDER  in the last 11.

It must be noted that No. 4 seeds like the Pacers in the NBA finals have seen 18 of their L/22 games stay under the total. 

Oklahoma City was first in the NBA in points allowed per 100 possessions (108.5) this season and, Indiana was seventh in the NBA at (112.8)

NBA Any team - in the finals, in the 4th game of a playoff series are 42-14 UNDER since 1997 with a combined average of 191.6 ppg scored.

Play under

It seems alot of bettors like the underdog Indiana Pacers at home here tonight but Im leaning the other way. The Thunder looked rusty in game 1 and fell asleep at the wheel with a 15 point lead in the 4th quarter and lost 111-110 as 9.5 point favs. They once again took a big lead last time out in game 2 and kept the pedal to the metal until the end making sure they did not give up another lead . Im once again betting that they will keep pushing forward and for them to continue to heat up.  Note: There have been four teams in the NBA Finals dating back 7 seasons that were No 4 seed or worse. Their overall record is just 5-17 SU and 8-12-2 ATS   At home these 4th seeds like the Pacers ,  are just 1-5 SU and ATS.

Play on the Thunder to cover

Oklahoma City fell asleep at the wheel In game 1  blew a 15 point 4th quarter and that dominance will continue here game 2 but this time Im betting the Thunder will keep the pedal to the metal right until the very end. 

Over the last 11 seasons, outright winners have gone 55-3-3 ATS in the NBA Finals. Since the start of the 2013 playoffs, NBA Finals home favorites of 4.5 points or more are 26-8 SU and 21-11-2 ATS and  Game 2, home favs are 7-2 SU and 5-2-2 ATS  in the L/9 seasons.  

There have been four teams in the NBA Finals going back 7 seasons n that were seeded fourth or worse. Their overall record after Indiana won game 1 is 5-16 SU and 8-11-2 ATS . When coming off victories , No.4 seeds are  0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS. 

NBA team vs the money line - off an upset loss as a home favorite of 10 points or more, extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days. Are 31-4 with the average margin peg diff clicking in at +11.2. 

Play on Thunder 

Well rested Thunder have the edge here in game 1 of this years NBA Finals. In the last 20 years, underdogs of above 5 points in Game 1 are 0-12 SU / 1-11 ATS in Game one .  The underdog in Game 1 of the NBA Finals has not faired well recording a 2-18 SU / 3-17 ATS over 20 seasons .

Play the Thunder as high as -9 to -9.5 

Indiana had a bad offensive outing in Game 5 of this series, and subsequently lost to bring in a Game 6  situation that could see them advance to the NBA Finals. With that said, Im looking for a very aggressive offensive performance from the Pacers and for the Knicks to have to open up or be blown off the court. Indiana games after scoring 95 points or less are a perfect 9-0 L/9 opportunities with a combined average of 242.4 ppg scored.

Play over

The Pacers have an offensive rating of 121.1 in this series and are starting to pick apart the Knicks defense wth ease. The Knicks capable offense Im  betting are going to be forced into action and create some offensive fireworks of their own or find themselves eliminated from the post season. This Im. betting leads to a higher scoring affair than the lines-makers are estimating.Since 2016, conference finals Game Fives have gone 7-2 Over  when one of the teams is attempting to close out the series, with combined average of 224.8 ppg scored. 

Indiana away or neutral games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game are are 13-3 OVER with a combined average of 239.1 ppg going on the board.Indiana away or neutral games after one or more consecutive overs are 20-7 OVER L/27 with a combined average of 238.3 ppg scored.

Play over 

 Im betting on the superior side ( Thunder) to finish up this series tonight and cover the number as well.

NBA Conference finals sides truing to close out a series have gone 11-2 SU/ 10-3 ATS (when favored by 4.5 points or more  dating back 12 seasons, outscoring their  opp by an average of 13.3 PPG. In the L/20 Games (Five-Six or Seven,) N.1  seeds like the Thunder are 14-9 SU/ATS, with outright winners going a perfect 23-0 ATS in those tilts. – Top-seeded sides are also viable bets going 12-5 SU / 11-6 ATS in  conference finals rwhen coming off a same series single-digit win like was the case last time out.No.1  have been exceptional at covering big point spreads, as evident by a  30-3 SU / 20-13 ATS 61% conversion rate  in the conference finals when favored by 6.5 points or more.NBA  sides playing as chalk  have gone 14-4 SU / ATS in conference finals Game Fives. The higher -seeded sides have owned  Game Fives  in conference finals series, winning 13 of 18 SU and ATS for a 72% conversion rate  dating back 12 seasons. The outright winner won all 18 games ATS. 

NBA Favorites - in a game involving two good three point shooting teams (36.5% or better) after 42+ games, after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher are 40-14 ATS since 2021 with the average ppg diff clicking in at +9.9.

Oklahoma City in home games when playing against a team with a winning record are 25-8 ATS L/23 with the average ppg diff clicking in at 15.6 ppg.

Play on the Thunder to cover

NYK was being beaten like a drum in game 3 and things looked bad, but than the Pacers dominance sudenly dissipated thanks in part to just going through the motions.  Indiana had a horrible  3-point shooting conversion rate in game 3 .  However, Im betting that the Pacers  who  combined 5 for 25 from the land of the trey wont fall asleep again.We have to remember this is a Pacers side  that converted on 36.8% from down town  during the regular season and just under 38% at home .  What Im saying is the Pacers will bounce back here. The Pacers are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS  L/5 in Game 4s. Indiana in home games off a upset loss as a favorite are 10-1 ATS L/11 opportunities . Favorites - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite, off a upset loss as a favorite are 125-75 ATS for a 63% conversion rate for bettors since 2021.

Play on the Pacers 

The Wolves exploded offensively last time out, but now after that huge output Im betting on some regression. The wolves exerted alot of energy in that game and everything they did was near flawless. But one thing I know is the Thunder are a team that has proven that they can make adjustments in a hurry and thats what Im betting on tonight in classic zig zag theory mode.

Thunder are 19-5 ATS L/25 revenging a loss vs opponent.

NBA Road teams - vs. division opponents, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite are 54-21 ATS since 2021. NBA team - off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 37-76 ATS since 2021. NBA Underdogs vs the money line - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against a good defensive team (104-108 PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 130 points or more are 8-47 since 1997 with the average margin ppg diff -8.8.

Play on the thunder

The Pacers took both games in NYK and now down 2-0 the Knicks are going to have to be more aggressive and leave everything on the court and up their pace. That Im betting translates into a higher scoring affair that eclipses this offered total. Im betting on most of NYK best players to be in action for most of this game, and for Brunson who has had his way offensively to play alot of minutes here.Brunson played only 39 minutes in the last game and Im betting on those min increasing in this key tilt.  It must be noted that the Pacers have averaged 119.5 ppg  of offense in the play offs and the Knicks after trying to play more D and slow their tempo down through the early part of these play offs have now been forced into action in their L/5 overall games  have scored an average of 117.2 ppg on offense while allowing an average of 114.6 ppg on D. 

Indiana ranks 7th in the NBA ppg, while ranking 17th in ppg D. 

NYK rank 9th in ppg offense and 14th in defensive rating. 

New York games after playing 3 consecutive home games are 10-1 OVER with a combined average of 238.7 ppg scored.

Play on the over 

Its not a good situation for the Wolves if they lose tonight as they are down 2-0 and a loss to this Thunder side, will put a nail in their proverbial play off coffins. So their desperation levels will be off the charts and with the home crowd now on their sides Im expecting some positive results. It must be noted that Oklahoma City  is  1-3 against the spread in Game 3s under Mark Daigneault and with thr zig zag theory showing elevated success in the play offs taking the points here is a viable profit taking opportunity. 

Play on the Wolves to cover

N YK outplayed Indiana for almost four quarters in game 1 of this series but their defense let them down late, and they blew a DD lead. Im betting here in the rebound game , the Knicks come out bombing away again and just keep the peddle to the metal from start to finish with no let up .On the flip-side Im also betting  Indiana to also step up their offense and continue to bring offensive heat with the momentum of their comeback last time out. (Brunson seems to be a weak point of the Knicks on D, and HC Carlisle game plan will continue to push him) The Knicks offense has been exceptional for most of this season, and their built to score in bunches, ranking 9th in ppg offense and 5th in offensive rating. Meanwhile, Indiana ranked 7th in offense entering this game, and 17th in D ppg, and are and will remain vulnerable defenders despite of some glimpses of strong defensive play in their earlier rounds of these play offs. The linesmakers have pushed up the totals offering  from game 1, but rightfully so.Indiana away or neutral games after one or more consecutive overs. are 20-6 OVER this season with those games seeing a combined average of 238.9 ppg. Indiana away or neutral games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season are 10-1 OVER with a combined average of 242.2 ppg. Indiana away or neutral games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game. are 13-2 OVER L/15 with a combined average of 240.2 ppg scored.

Play over

The Thunder are suddenly hitting on all cylinders offensively and that bad news for a Minnesota side that wants to slow things down and be physical. Unfortunately for the Wolves, the Thunder just dealt with that kind of slow paced action and prevailed thanks to some adjustments and now Im betting will continue to find ways to open up play and force their opponents to open up as well as the Thunder will force turnovers . Note: Oklahoma City owned  second-best transition offense (121.1 points per 100 possessions) in the league and since the post season began the Thunder’s opposition are averaging 18.3 turnovers per game and Im betting nothing changes tonight. Minnesota did not make shots in game 1 shooting just 29.3% from the land of the trey, but Im expecting some positive offensive regression, and a Im also projecting that the Thunder continue to matchup well offensively and that we see a higher scoring affair that eclipses this total. This number is low according to my projections. Oklahoma City home games after having won 3 of their last 4 games are 15-3 OVER with a combined average of 236.2 ppg scored. Oklahoma City when leading on a play off series this season have gone over 4 straight times.

Play over

The Pacers have more depth than the Knicks and thats why Im betting they push the pace here in an attempt to exhaust NYK. (Indiana has nine players playing at least 13 minutes per game in the playoffs) I know the Pacers have slowed their game down since the start of the post season, but knowing the Knicks also want to slow things down and stick to what got them by the Celtics, the Pacers opus operandi will be to force a track meet.  With that said, Im expecting a fairly high scoring game between two teams that can really light up the board when pushed in to action. 

Indiana away or neutral games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game are 12-2 OVER this season with a combined average of 237.8 ppg.

Indiana away or neutral games after one or more consecutive overs are 19-5 OVER with a combined average of 237.6 ppg scored.

Play over

Thunder just went through a grueling 7 game series and in the finale exploded with all out performance that Im sure will have them in a letdown mode. The Wolves are a physical team with big wings that can clamp down the Thunders small ball modus operandi. Note Home chalk  off a Game 7 are 10-12 SU and 6-15-1 since 2003. In the conference finals, home favorites off a Game 7 are 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS.

Take the wolves to cover

This veteran laden Nuggets team is the best clutch team left in the play offs- and Im betting they turn this in to a very physical battle with big game super star Jokic leading the way and one man game changer Jamal Murray playing along side of him. There is no way the Nuggets will let the Thunder run and gun and I just can’t find the fortitude to fade this Nuggets side in a do or die situation. I know Aaron Gordon may not play because of injury today, but I  still like the Nuggets chances of being competitive. Note: Denver was 12-4 ATS this season ,versus good defensive teams - allowing 108 or less points/game.

Play on Denver to cover

No way I wont take a chance on the defending champs prolonging this series. Just to much pedigree and experience to not feel confident . Tatum was out in the last game, and they Knicks still lost. When the Celtics star Tatum is out the Celtics are 9-2 SU this season. Rinse and repeat on the agenda. Since 2021,  away sides with winning record  with a . 600 -.750 record ) with lines of +3 to -3 that are coming off home victory  by 20 or more points  25-5 ATS in games with lines of +3 to -3 with the average ppg diff clicking in at 8.9 points per game favoring the visitor. 

Play on the Celtics to cover

This series has been a tough grueling and close affair and nothing changes  here in Denver.  Im betting on Denver being very physical and conservative here again in this game tonite, and actively looking to take flow away from the kind of fast game the Thunder want to play. Leading on the last game, Denver made the mistake of speeding up play and the thunder made them pay with a late run, that kind of mistake wont be made twice in a row by this experienced veteran post season side group. Dog in this series between the Thunder and Nuggets  has covered 18 of the L/22 times.

Play on the Nuggets to cover

The L/3 games in this series have stayed under the total. Im betting on Denver being very physical and conservative here again in this game tonite, and actively looking to take flow away from the kind of fast game the Thunder want to play. Leading on the last game, Denver made the mistake of speeding up play and the thunder made them pay with a late run, that kind of mistake wont be made twice in a row by this experienced veteran post side group.  This Im betting leads to a lower scoring affair. Ten of the last 14  Game Sixes that have been played the last four playoff seasons have gone Under the total for a 72% conversion rate. 

Play under

The Warriors down in this series, are going to be much more aggressive offensively with elimination on the table. Im also  betting the Wolves will reciprocate with some faster paced action as this game progresses as they look to finish off their opponents.

Historically, double-digit underdogs like the Warriors  facing a 3-1 deficit in the playoffs with a total of 202.5 or less points are 9-3 OVER overall and on a current 7-0 OVER run! 

NBA team - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game are 671-497 OVER since 1997 for a 58% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 209.9 ppg.

Play over

This Denver vs Oklahoma City series has been very competitive so far, and Im betting nothing changes tonite. Laying alot of points with home sides  has not been conducive to cashing for bettors in the second round of late as home sides  laying 8.5 points or more are just  7-19 ATS L/26 dating back to  the  2016 post season ! I know the Nuggets have less depth but because they are playing at much slower pace than they did during the reg season, they are not looking as tired as expected. Also something thats interesting, in the last game during clutch time it was the Thunder who outperformed the Nuggets veterans (surprising) as the Nuggets were the third-best scoring team in the clutch (10.5 points) during the regular season while recording the fourth-best plus-minus at (+1.4). Thats kind of thing Im betting just wont happen again.  Note:: number  #1 seeds have failed to continue to ascend after a first round victory in the  second round   in the last four postseasons, as is evident by recording a  7-12 SU record along with a 5-14 ATS mark in the last 19 opportunities  when coming off a same series win.Underdogs are   16-4 ATS in the last 20 in this series and get the nod again.

Play on the Nuggets to cover

The Celtics did not execute well in game 1 or 2 of this series, and even though they took out the Knicks with some good downtown shooting last time out they just dont look like the cohesive championship team that we expect. The Celtics have had issues holding big leads all season long, and even though they have been up in all 3 games by 20 plus points at some juncture of the game the Knicks have found a way to claw back. The Knicks have done a good overall job against the Celtics overall offense, and Im betting they dont go down without a fight tonite in this tilt. Note:Teams like the Celtics  after shooting 50% or better from 3-point range and making 20+ treys are a lowly 8-18 SU and 7-19 ATS in the following tilt.

 New York after scoring 100 points or less are 30-9 ATS L/39 and New York after scoring 105 points or less 2 straight games are 17-3 ATS L/20 opportunities.

Play on the Knicks to cover

So the narrative is that the ultra talented  Thunder choked last time out vs a more experienced play off group the Denver Nuggets. Well that may have been the case, but the truth behind the matter is that Oklahoma city is still the more talented squad, and have a deeper bench. Meanwhile, the Nuggets rotation is talented and experienced it is also owns a  much shorter bench, and after a grueling play off run that saw them play all out hoops with an emotional edge, their legs and determination must be on the edge of going into a regressionary state. It must be noted that the Thunder have lost twice in a row just 3 times this season, and according to my assessments are leagues best teams at making immediate matchup adjustments. Also of importance here is this trenad Note:Game 1   underdogs, and in the previous tilt their opponent shot worse than 30 % from the trey like the Thunder did -and the home team (Nuggets) shot 40 % or better , the home underdog has recorded a ugly 4-17 SU/ 6-15 ATS record dating back 22 seasons. the Thunder are also 17-5 ATS this season revenging a loss vs an opponent. 

Play on the Thunder to cover

After blowing big leads in back to back games at home, the Celtics find themselves down 2-0 in this play off series. This afternoon  Im betting the Celtics come out gunning and running in start to finish fashion, and that Im betting forces the capable Knicks offense to open up in a game Im betting goes over this total. NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 - after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 25-5 OVER since 2021 with a combined average of 216.6 ppg scored.

Play over

Cavs  are having issues defending against the Pacers backcourt. I also believe these teams are more evenly matched than public perception is estimating. The Pacers have really made the Cavs work hard in this series, and they looked tired in the last half of game 2, of this series so I wont be surprised to see them come out here in a bit of a down mode situation despite of being desperate ....which bodes well for the hosts taking a big lead in this series. Also the Cavs against top tier teams this season, like the Pacers who  own a  .600 to .700 record are just 6-7 SU.  Note: NBA teams like the Cavs where the line is +3 to -3 - after 2 or more consecutive losses, a top-level team (75% or better ) playing a team with a winning record are 6-26 ATS since 1997 and teams with a money line of +135 to -155 - after 2 or more consecutive losses, a top-level team (75% or better ) playing a team with a winning record are just 6-25 since 1997.

Play on the Pacers to cover

Golden State took game 1 of this series , but lost their key offensive cog Steph Curry who is out with an injury. I know the Wolves are now big favs to win this series and this game , but Im betting the Warriors just don't roll over and die. The presence of Jimmy Butler, who when hes in a groove is one of the best players in the league is capable of stepping up his play to fill the void left by Currys absence..Since Curry was drafted by the Warriors in 2009, the franchise owns an 8-3  record in playoff games without him thanks in part to great coaching from Steve Kerr who gets the most out of his team when least expected.  Golden State has won the L/4 meetings SU vs the Wolves and Minnesota has never beaten the Warriors by DDs in the L/12 meetings.  Note: NBA Home teams vs. the money line - revenging 4 or more losses vs opponent in last 2 years against opponent off a road win by 10 points or more are 11-36 since 2021 .

Play on Golden State to cover

Denver after a grueling series with the LA Clippers shocked us with a game 1 win in this series, but now Im betting on an immediate let down situation from the Nuggets , as the action starts to take it toll on them. Meanwhile, the Thunder are one of the best teams in basketball that can immediately adjust to a teams domination of them. Earlier this season, in NBA tourney action the Bucks owned the Thunder in half court action, but in the subsequent rematches the Thunder easily prevailed. Note:Oklahoma City in home games revenging a loss vs opponent are 22-7 ATS with a average ppg diff of +15.4. Denver is 2-7 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog.

NBA Home favorites - off an upset loss as a home favorite of 10 points or more, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 28-8 ATS since 1997 with the average ppg diff clicking in at +16.7.

Play on the Thunder

 This is a good matchup for the Celtics . The Knicks can score but their defense remains suspect  Meanwhile, the Celtics like the Thunder remain the best two way teams in the league. ,  Note: New York vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game are 0-8 ATS this season with the average ppg diff clicking in at -14.7. NYK are 2-9 ATS this season, as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points From a head to head standpoint the Celtics are   8-1 SU and 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine head-to-head games vs NYK.

Play on the Celtics to cover

As we get into the meaty part of the post season, beginning with the 2nd round, teams begin to play a more physical type of game. Im not saying these two offensive juggernauts will not do some scoring Im saying the the totals numbers  the lines-makers produce  are a bit off because of the added toughness teams exhibit at this juncture of the campaign. Note 2nd round totals of 220.5 or more since  2018,  have gone  36-17-1 under for a 70% conversion rate  including 13-0 when 227.5 or higher.

Play under

Down the stretch run into the post season the LA Clippers were one of basketball best teams. I know they slowed in recent days against the same team , but after putting out that much high end effort they finally crashed in couple of these play off games. However, I still believe in them here tonite behind big game performers like Leonard  I expect they will get the win (or at least the cover). Meanwhile, Denver has surprised some with their top tier play after a inconsistent season that was blamed on the HC. My big problem with backing Denver wrong or right is their lack of depth after the big 3 of Gordon, Muuray, Jokic ,and fortitude( as was the case when they gave up on their HC) and in a game like this that will go a long way.

LA Clippers versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season are 14-2 ATS.

NBA Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 - excellent FT shooting team (79% or better ) against a good FT shooting team (76-79%) after 42+ games, hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or more of their shots are 37-12 since 1997.

Down 29 points last time out going into the 4th quarter, Golden state rested all 5 strarters. Warriors' starters played more than 26 minutes in the loss. Now rested Im betting the Warriors come out with all guns blazing and will force the young strong legs of the youthful Rockets to have to step up with some run and gun offensive fireworks of their own or be blown off the court. After a slow start to this series, the last two games have shown a little more tempo and that Im betting will aid in this totals offering being eclipsed. Houston games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread are 28-8 OVER with a combined average of 232.2 ppg.

Play over

With elimination looming Im betting on the Clippers to play a start to finish dominate game. The Nuggets bench is a short one. the Nuggets top top tier talent  is starting to feel fatigue, and saw that close up in their last game, as they put alot of effort out in that tilt to get the win. Let down here as we go to game 7. Clippers were 30-13 ATS at home this season and get the nod again.

Play on the Clippers to cover

I don't see the Lakers being dominant enough to win this game by 6 or more points. The Wolves have made life difficult for them in every game via a physical brand of hoops that the Lakers don't seem keen on in partaking in. More of the elbows up action again and a cover for the Wolves is my recommendation. Note:Minnesota is  2-0 SUATS  in close-out games under Chris Finch.

Play on the Wolves to cover

Denver pulled off a surprising victory  Saturday to regain home-court advantage in its Western Conference quarterfinal series with the Los Angeles Clippers. Los Angeles, which won Game 2 in Denver now in a corner will be primed to bounce back. Im betting the lack of depth will be the Nuggets downfall in a series that is going to get very physical starting tonight. Note: The Nuggets' short bench is even shorter with Russell Westbrook out. Advantage Clippers.

LA Clippers versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season are 14-1 ATS .

The LA Clippers have covered the Spread in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.50 Units / 45% ROI)

Denver in home games versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more of their shots are 0-7 ATS L/7.

NBA teams like the Clippers where the line is +3 to -3 - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite of 7 or more, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 25-7 ATS since 2021.

Play on the Clippers to cover

These teams are evenly matched in my humble opinion, with the more experienced Warriors getting the benefit of the doubt. However, that benefit of the doubt ratio is being over done here according to SRS data. Houston ranks 5th in SRS in the NBA with a 4.96 mark while the Warriors rank 10th with a 3.56 , with home court advantage thrown in the game should be closer to -2.5 to -3 for the Warriors, in a game that is expected be close it must be noted that  #2 seeds like the rockets  have also rebounded solidly after suffering  losses,  going 23-3 SU and 20-6 ATS  in their L/26.

Play on Houston to cover

Antetokounmpo is averaging  35.7 points and 14.0 rebounds per game in the series, the Bucks and thats without Lilliard getting back into game shape and untracked. Im betting Lilliard now acclimated to being back in action will be primed to the difference in this tilt. 

Favorites are 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS in the last eight  in this  head-to-head divisional rivalry. 

Play on Bucks to cover

Boston has had problems with top tier defensive sides all season. the Celtics  versus good defensive teams - allowing 108 or less points/game are 3-8 ATS.

Orlando in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or mless turnovers/game are 30-8 ATS L/38.

Home teams are 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS in the last 10 of this head-to-head series.

Play on Orlando to cover

Detroit played better overall hoops than the Knicks in game 3 of this series but just couldn't capitalize . The Knicks couldn't convert treys and or protect the rim defensively.  Here in a very important game 4 Im betting the Pistons get it together and notch a victory. Favorites are 12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS in the last 12  head-to-head series meetings  in Motown. 

Play on the Pistons to cover

The Clippers after barely losing game 1 of this series in OT by 2 points, have now won the last two games and deserve respect here as favs in game 4 at home, especially after owning game 3 as is evident by the 117-83 final score. . The Clippers  have been the better team this series and own a strong   home court advantage in the Intuit Dome.  It must be noted that entering game 3 of this series Opp FT% playing here is the lowest in the league. HC Ty Lue when hes got his team in a groove and adjusted to his oppositions mode of play is lights out one of the leagues best coaches. . NBAUnderdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off a road loss by 10 points or more are 13-44 ATS since 2021. NBAFavorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line - after 3 or more consecutive unders, an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against a poor defensive team (114-118 PPG) after 42+ game are 28-1 SU with a average ppg diff clicking in at +15.

Play on the Clippers to cover

  OKC has won 12 straight games against Memphis,  ans 10 of those 12 games have stayed under the total. This is in part due to the Thunder being the best defensive team in the league  and know how to slow down the Grizzlies. Other than that big time 40 point out put in the first quarter of the last game, the Grizzlies have been more like teddy bears against this strong Thunder D.In the reg season the Grizzlies were a  top 10 for fastbreak pounts team with  (16.7), Here in the post season they have (4.0) and have overall struggled to connect with the trey overall. After that huge surge last time out and still losing they are now highly likely out of gas and could produce a lower scoring output than even the lines-makers expect. The market has adjusted downward on this number, but rightfully so. Note: Memphis games versus below average foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less free throws/game - 2nd half of the season are 11-1 UNDER.

Play under

With HC Sploestra on the sidelines for the Heat they must not be underestimated. I said from the beginning of this series that I believed the Heat were capable of stealing at least one win this series vs the run and gun Cavaliers, and tonite could easily be that nite, as the Heat are in desperation mode in this series down 2-0 and will come out here like gang busters. Clevelands HC Kenny Atkinson stressed he expects a fight from the Heat. Quote:"This is not your typical 10-seed,"  END QUOTE: Atkinson was referring to his play off opponents the Heat, which finished 10th in the Eastern Conference regular-season standings before snatching the No. 8 seed with play-in round victories over the Chicago Bulls and Atlanta Hawks. I know containing  Cleveland's top scorer, who averaged 24.0 points in the regular season, is key for Miami.  In a December meeting the Heat held Donovan Mitchell to just 12 points on 5-of-16 shooting from the floor. So despite of Mitchells hot start in this series, he can be slowed. Since the 1997 season, NBA teams like Miami after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 120 points or more 2 straight games are 91-99 SU, with the key being that the average ppg diff clicked in at -1.9 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. Also Cleveland has cashed 15 of 24 off a road loss and are 8-3 ATS with 2 days rest or more.

Play on the Heat

Its been a physical grinding series so far and Im betting nothing changes tonite.

Minnesota has gone under in 8 of their L/9 overall.LAL has gone under in 4 of their L/5. 

Under the total has converted in six straight head-to-head meetings between these two sides.

PLAY UNDER

The Bucks are the kind of team that wont quit and  with veteran leadership are my choice here tonite down 2-0 in this play off series.  QUOTE: "I look at it as a long series (and) we haven't played a home game," the Bucks head coach said. "We have to go home and take care of business, then we can talk. I'm very confident about this series. Very." END QUOTE With Lillard back things could easily turn quickly in this series.

Chalk ATS is  7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven of the Bucks vs Pacers  head-to-head divisional series. 

Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points - off a loss against a division rival, on Friday nights are 32-7 ATS since 2021.

 Play on Milwaukee 

 This series between championship contender Oklahoma City  and mediocre  Memphis is a complete mismatch , especially from a defensive standpoint.  The Thunder rank 3rd in ppg allowed while the Grizzlies rank 24th in ppg allowed. 

 Memphis versus good offensive teams - scoring 116+ points/game - 2nd half of the season are 0-13 ATS with the average ppg diff clicking in at -15.8. Memphis versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game - 2nd half of the season are 0-8 ATS with the average ppg diff clicking in at -20.8.

Big away chalk favorites  are a very viable wagering opportunity in the first round of the NBA play offs  –  the last 56 road favorites of 4.5 points or more have are a bankroll expanding  45-11 SU and  37-18-1 ATS for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the thunder

With  Erik Spoelstra on the sidelines in a playoff series your always going to have a chance to win and Im betting tonite that Cleveland wont be as explosive as they were in game one against a Heat defense that has allowed 111.7 ppg,  since March 1st. I believe in game 1 of this series Miami after two play in games and a OT victory to get into the post season, were a little tired and letdown. that wont be the case here. Heat are 24-10 straight-up and 23-10-1 ATS L/34 in the second game of a playoff series under Spoelstra.

Play on the Heat to cover

The Celtics can play a top tier two way game while the Magic are basically a defense first side and that will be their downfall tonite. Big chalk own a indicative  edge – Since the beginning of the 2014 playoffs, NBA first round favorites of 8.5 points or more are 92-14 SU and 65-41 ATS for a 61% conversion rate for bettors. Home teams are 8-0 SU and ATS in the last eight of the ORL-BOS head-to-head series and Im betting on a 9th straight cover . 

Play on the Celtics to cover

The Timberwolves smashed the Lakers 117-95 in game 1 of this series thanks to strong shooting and physical play. Tonight you can bet the Lakers will respond and with more aggressive body of work and rebound with top tier shooting which will push this total to go over this offering. 

Minnesota versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less turnovers/game are 17-7 0ver.

Minnesota games after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games are 22-6 OVER with a combined average of 225.5 ppg scored.

LA Lakers games off a upset loss as a favorite are 22-8 OVER with a combined average of 231.4 ppg scored. Lakers off a home blowout loss of 20 points or more are 3-1 over this season.

Play over 

,Kawhi Leonard, James Harden and Norman Powell have played well together and have consistently been a team that looks like contenders since the All star break. They were outdueled in game 1 of this series, in the Mile High City by the Nuggets- but barely in OT by just 2 pts and tonite Im betting we see them bounce back in a big way. 

Denver when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) are 3-8 ATS this season. Nuggets when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are just 4-10 ATS this season. Denver at home when the line is +3 to -3 have failed to cover 6 of 8 this season.

LA Clippers versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season are 12-0 ATS this season. The Clippers have also covered 12 of 17 vs Northwestern division opponents. Clippers when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) have covered 12 of 18 ATS.

NBA Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 - excellent FT shooting team (79%) or better against a good FT shooting team (76-79%) after 42+ games, hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or better of their shots are 36-12 since 1997.

Play on the Clippers to cover

 Celtics are  top tier  three-point attempt TEAM, that ranks 2nd in the NBA and first in made treys will have difficulties getting their shots off or to convert.When they met last time at the end of the season , the Magic shut them down. Orlando is built to slow down teams like the Celtics with a top tier brand of D. The  Magic do not and will not allow pace or space: This is a  top 10 side  in rim protection and also lead the league in opponent three-point conversion  rate. This going to be a grinding physical affair and points will come at a premium. Orlando games vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game are  11-1 UNDER L/12 .

Play under

The Pistons according to my power rankings matchup well vs the NY Knicks and in their L/3 head to head meetings the Motown crew have come out on top .(NYK is just 9-22 ATS playing a side with revenge)  Also Home teams vs. the money line - triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent, off a road win against a division rival are 6-22 L/28 sine 2021 for a go against 78% conversion rate.

It must be noted that the Pistons have done well from a betting perspective vs Atlantic conference opponents as is evident by. 14-4 ATS mark.  Detroit in away or neutral games after a game where they allowed a shooting pct. of 55% or higher are 11-0 ATS L/11.

Play on the Pistons to cover

The Milwaukee Bucks won the season series and have a hard core group of postseason  veterans and must be respected getting this many points in game 1 of this series. from a SRS perspective the Bucks rank 11th with a 2.12  and the Pacers are ranked 13th with a 1.68 mark. When facoring in home court advantage of an obligatory,  this line should be closer to a -3 home line giving us a full possession value line with the Bucks, who Im betting can bring out a top tier half court game, that slowed down the explosive Thunder earlier this season. NBA team like the Bucks - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 71-31 ATS since the 2021 season for a 70% conversion rate. Note: Milwaukee as a road underdog of 6 points or less are 6-2 ATS this season.

Play on the Bucks to cover

Grizzlies can roll up points in a hurry ranking 2nd in the NBA ppg  and against the 21st ranked defense efficiency in the NBA Im betting they have a very productive offensive output. Meanwhile, Dallas proved their much better than some might perceive and took out the Sacramento Kings last time out while putting 120 points on the board and here against the 24th ranked ppg  D in the league will come close to replicating their last output  .NBA teams like Memphis where the total is 220 to 229.5 - off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, playing with 2 days rest are 48-17 OVER since 1997 with a combined average of 232.2 ppg scored. NBA Road teams like Dallas where the total is greater than or equal to 220 - double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent against opponent off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog are 38-13 OVER since3 1997 with a combined average of 236.8 ppg scored.

Dallas away or neutral games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points are 27-9 OVER L/36 opportunities with a combined average of 236.3 ppg scored.

play over

The Mavs are going to have Davis in the lineup tonite, and that will buoy a more productive offensive output from the visitors here this evening. The Mavericks have gone Over in 3 of their last four games overall , and in  14 of their last 18 overall, and Im betting they push the action as this game goes on, as their D Im betting just wont get the job done. Ya the Mavs may try to slow this game down from the out set, but the Kings just have to many 3 point specialists and could easily pile up points in a hurry which will see the the Mavs have to reciprocate with some offensive fireworks of their own or be blown of the court , which favors a higher scoring affair than the lines-makers are estimating. 

Sacramento owns a top 10 NBA ppg offense and the 19th ranked ppg defense. 

Dallas ranks 21st in the NBA in defensive net rating. 

Play over

 Chicago took out Miami the last time they played,  which was just  couple of days ago by a 119-111 score. From a head to head perspective the Bulls have really found them selves since the All Star game with a net rating of  +4.8, compared the Heats  +3.0 and are the better side overall. Yes, this is a young group in Chicago , but can they ever ball, and their relentless in run and gun fashion and must be respected on this short line.

The Heat have had problems with explosive offenses like the Bulls losing 18 of 26 vs sides that score 117 points or more per game. 

Chicago versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less turnovers/game are 16-8 ATS this season.

NBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games are 23-5 since 1997. 

Play on the Bulls to win/cover

The last time these teams played the Grizzlies were leading leading 120-116 with just  3:38 left on the clock in the fourth quarter before falling asleep at the wheel in the final couple of minutes and losing by DDs. Needless to say that game was close all the way through, and Im betting it will be closely contested again. You have to remember Golden State is off a hard fought OT loss to the Clippers in the season finale and bringing the same fire in back to back games will be difficult. Add to that Steph Curry is banged up with a thumb injury and you have a situation where the Grizzlies have an advantage. I know the Grizzlies looked remarkably unremarkable in the 2nd half of this season, but they have a highly talented offense, that can light you up in a hurry and getting this many key points in important game makes backing   them  a viable wagering opportunity. 
Note: since April 3rd, the Grizzlies have the sixth-best Efficiency Differential (+8.8) in the NBA and rank  10th in points per 100 possessions (118.5) and sixth in points allowed per 100 possessions (109.7) . 

Golden State in home games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days are 2-18 ATS L/20. Golden State has failed to cover 19 of 30 games as home favs this season.

Play on Memphis to cover

I know strong  defense must be respected in  big games and Orlando fits that mold. However, its their lack of a consistent offense that troubles me. The Magic have struggled mightily without Jalen Suggs averaging just  19th in points per 100 possessions since March 1- and are sub .500 with him out - going 21-26 SU this season . Also Atlantas Tre Ice Young can make the best of defenses look average at best, and the Hawks juggernaut will Im betting be the difference maker here today. The Hawks were  21-9-1 ATS as road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season and are viable bets in a game I have projected to be extremely close. 

Orlando has gone just 21-19-1 ATS at home this season.

Play on the Hawks to cover

The Los Angeles Clippers and Golden State Warriors can secure a playoff berth while at the same time sending the other into the Western Conference play-in bracket this afternoon in Oakland. The Clippers have earned a tiebreaker edge in most scenarios over the Warriors by virtue of sweeping the first three meetings this season and have the matchup edge.Im expecting a hard fought affair with the points in my humble betting opinion being golden. 

The Warriors super star Steph curry will play at less than 100% today vs the Clippers as his thumb is inflamed and causing him pain. Numbing it will be an option, but as we all know holding and shooting the ball with accuracy will be effected. Meanwhile, the LA Clippers are extremely hot entering this game, and have won 15 of their L/17 including 7 straight and deserves respect here. 

LA Clippers versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season are a perfect 10-0 ATS this season. LA Clippers on the money line after allowing 100 points or less are 14-4 L/18 with the average ppg diff clicking at +11.8.

Golden State in home games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days are 2-17 ATS L/19.Golden State in home games after allowing 100 points or less are 0-9 ATS. Golden State in home games after allowing 95 points or less are also 0-9 ATS.

Play on the Clippers to cover

The Kings seem to bring their A game when going up against top tier competition like tonites opponent the Clippers. Sacramento in home games on the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) are 10-1 L/11 opportunities. Also The Clippers and Kings played last month and it was aha rd fought affair that  the Clippers just barely won by 1 point. With that said, I like the value line and will recommend we take the points here in the rematch.

The Clippers have lost four of their last five games as favorites against Pacific Division opponents.The home team has won six of the Clippers' last seven games.The Clippers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six night games against Pacific Division opponents.The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the last three games between the Clippers and Kings.

NBA Home teams like the Kings vs. the money line - a good offensive team (114-118 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 115 points or more 4 straight games are 38-8 SU since 1997.

Play on Sacramento to cover

The Bucks have gone over at a 7-1-1 clip in their L/9 overall, and here against a Pelicans side that that ranks 28th in the NBA in defensive efficiency should be able to have a above average output , which Im projecting to be in the 120 plus range with the Pelicans scoring in the +105 range which equates to a -15 favorite offering.

New Orleans in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent spanning 17 games have seen a combined average of 237.4 ppg. ( The Pelicans lost their last meeting with the Bucks)

The OVER is 7-0 in New Orleans/Milwaukee matchups at Milwaukee since the 2018 season.

Play over

 The Knicks entering this game are  the third seed by two games over  the Indiana Pacers with three games left in the season . NYK holds the tiebreaker over the Pacers after winning the season series, 2 games to 1 . A win in this spot locks up  the third spot. Motivational factors favor the dogs . 

NY Knicks are a perfect  is 8-0 SU  in their last eight visits to Motown to play the Pistons. 

The Pistons have lost 10 of their last 11 games at Little Caesars Arena against Atlantic Division opponents that held a winning record.The Knicks have covered the spread in each of their last six games as road underdogs against opponents who are on the first leg of a back-to-back.The Pistons have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games against teams that held a winning record.

Play on Knicks to cover

Houston after consecutive wins against Oklahoma City and Golden State look to be in top form and heading into the play offs with a full head of steam having notched victories in  15 of their L/17  including covers in 4 of their L/5 overall . The Rockets are also well rested with 2 days off which is a good omen considering they are 11-2 SU  when playing with 2 days rest this season. I know the Clippers are also playing well, especially at home , but my matchup power rankings suggest the Rockets are the superior side. Also Houston ranks 4th in SRS in the NBA with a 5.81 mark while the Clippers rank 7th with a 4.62. When throwing in a obligatory home court edge of -3-4 the line edge should be closer to -2.5 to a maximum of 3 which gives us close to a full 2 possession edge on this ATS offering.  Note- SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. 

NBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points - after beating the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games against opponent after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 43-17 ATS since 1997.

Houston has won 4 straight SU in this series and Im betting if they lose they will cover.

Play on rockets to cover

The Warriors smashed the Spurs last time these teams met 148-106 on March 30th, but Im betting that kind of beatdown wont happen again. The Warriors are off a strong divisional win last time out vs Phoenix by +38 margin of victory  and are now playing their 3rd game 4 nights and are on tired legs and in a natural regressionary situation offensively. 

Golden State in home games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days are 2-16 ATS L/18 and in home games after allowing 100 points or less are 0-8 ATS L/8 .

The Spurs are 3-1 ATS as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points while the Warriors as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points are 1-4 ATS this season and have failed to cover 17 of 28 at home this season overall ATS as chalk.

Play on the Spurs to cover 

.

This Minnesotas 4th straight road game, since April 1st and they could easily be on tired legs tonite vs a Milwaukee team that has won 4 straight games. NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 - after 4 or more consecutive overs, in a game involving two average defensive teams (108-114 PPG) are 26-4 ATS since 1997 and a perfect 4-0 ATS this season.

From a SRS perspective the Wolves rank 5th in the NBA with a 4.65 and the Bucks are ranked 13th with a 1.65 mark, when factoring in a 3 point home court advantage, this line should be closer to a picke,.thus getting points looks like a viable investment opportunity.

SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average.

Minnesota on the money line after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games have lost 7 of their L/11.

Milwaukee are 4-1 SU/ATS L/5 meetings in this series.

Play on Bucks to cover

I know Sacramento took a big win at Cleveland last nite, but now wiht momentum on their sides Im betting they will not suffer a letdown. Road teams are 8-2 SU and 10-0 ATS in last 10 of Kings-Pistons head-to-head  meetings. Sacramento is 2-0 against the money line at Detroit since the 2023 season. Detropit has failed to cover 12 of 17 as home favs this season.

Play on Sacramento to cover

The Rockets are off a motivated win vs the Oklahoma City Thunder last time out at home, and will have some emotional letdown luggage to deal with here at Golden State. Thats not a good omen for thei\ Rockets chances here today vs a Warriors side that has  won three of four in this season's series after having entered this campaign on a 13-game winning streak in head-to-head matchups.The Warriors haven't lost to the Rockets in San Francisco since Feb. 20, 2020 and Im betting that Warriors streak of victory stays intact.More importantly Im betting we also get the cover. Note: Brandin Podziemski , Curry and Butler are all expected to play tonite for the Warriors, as well as Moody and Green  and this has been a positive for team when that happens as  the Warriors are a perfect 14-0 in those games. NBA Home favorites vs. the money line - after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more 2 straight games are 47-6 since 1997 with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.1 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering.

Play on the Warriors to cover

The Grizzlies  put an end to a four-game losing streak with a 110-108 road win last time out. Memphis has been in a funk of late, but those losses came to the Celtics, Thunder, Warriors, and Lakers, and now this game will seem like a walk in the park compared to that competition. Yes, the Motown crew has played admirably this season, and deserve respect, but are off playig yesterday and at this juncture of the season, thats a negative .Note> Memphis has won 6 straight meetings in this series and get the nod again. 

Play on the Grizzlies to cover 

The Thunder have won 18 of 19 games following their 119-103 victory over the Detroit Pistons on Wednesday.I know Oklahoma city is red hot entering this game against Houston, but it must be noted that sides reaching an eight-game winning streak have  proven not to be good bets as is evident by recording a  62-84-1 ATS mark in the next game, including 28-41 ATS on the road over the L/4 seasons. The thunder rank No.1 in SRS (13.38) but the Rockets rank 4th with a 5.47 and when adding in an obligatory 4 point home court advantage this line should be closer to a -4 giving us a one possession edge on the side offering. 

SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average

Rockets are  6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven games hosting the Thunder. This season the Rockets are 3-1 ATS as hoe dogs. 

Play on Houston  to cover

The Nets have shown some competitiveness for large portions of this 2nd half of this season , and have pit together a  winning streak  by coming back from a  10-point fourth-quarter deficit to upset the Dallas Mavericks 113-109. Im betting on more of the same type of play from them here vs a Wolves side,  Brooklyn recorded  upset victories  over the playoff-bound Milwaukee Bucks, Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Lakers while also beating the Mavericks and Atlanta Hawks, each of whom are vying for play-in spots.

Double-digit NBA favorites like the Wolves in non-conference games are  just 143-157-6 ATS over the last four seasons. NBA sides  that were victorious their last contest while scoring 135 or more points are on a 175-197-8 ATS run in the follow-up contest when they are chalk. 

NBA team like the Wolves - off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, second half of the season are 44-98 ATS since 2021.

Play on Nets to cover

These teams have not eclipsed the offered total of this game in 9 previous meetings and Im betting on another lower scoring affair here this evening. The Celtics run the 27th ranked pace in the NBA and the 3rd ranked D. Slow and concerted efforts have proven effective the Celtics and with the play offs fast approaching honing their top teir defensive skills become paramount. Meanwhile, Miami ranks 28th in ppg offense and 7th in ppg allowed and 28th in pace. Im betting on a grinding affair.

Boston against Southeast division opponents have gone under in 11 of 13 games this season.

NBA teams like the Heat/Celtics where the total is 210 to 219.5 - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games are 29-3 UNDER since 2021 with a combined average of 205.9 ppg scored .

Play under

No RJ Barrett and no Ingram for the Raptors who are playing their 4th road game in 8 days, puts them at disadvantage vs a Chicago team that despite of losing 2 straight were on a previous 10-0-1 ATS run and deserve respect in this spot play here at home . Yes  even though the Bulls played last night against the Thunder.  After playing that explosive group this will seem like a walk in the park .  The Raptors have lost 3 straight vs the Bulls and 4 of the L/5 meetings. Note:Favorites - playing on back-to-back days, in April games.are 62-28 ATS since 2021 with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.1 .

Play on the Bulls to cover

Orlando ranks 1st on ppg allowed behind the 27th ranked pace and 29th ranked  ppg offense. Meanwhile, the Clippers rank 4th in ppg allowed in the NBA 21st in pace and 20th in ppg scored. Its obvious what kind of game plan these teams put into play on most nites, and Im betting on another crawling type of tilt here that stays on the low side of this totals offering. 

Clippers against Southeast division opponents have gone under in 6 of 9 matchups. Clippers have gone under in 3 straight after 3 or more games that resulted in overs.

Orlando off a blowout win of 20 or more points  are 1-5 to the under this season which is the case here this evening. If the win was at home which it was the under is perfect 4-0. 

NBA teams like the Clippers/Magic where the total is 210 to 219.5 - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games are 27-3 UNDER since 2021 with a combined average of 207.4 ppg scored .

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after beating the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games like Orlando are 23-3 UNDER since 2021 with a combined average of 207.8 ppg scored.

The UNDER is 5-1 in LA Clippers/Orlando matchups at Orlando since the 2018 season.

Play on the under

The 76ers have essentially wrapped up their season, and playing a D team squad. Meanwhile, the Raptors still seem to care, as is evident by 3 straight wins and covers on their current road trip. 

The Raptors have won the two most recent games in this series this season, and a rinse repeat situation looks to be a viable option to bet on considering both sides current form. 

Philadelphia when the total is 220 to 229.5. are 8-23 ATS. Nick Nurse after failing to cover the spread in 4 or more consecutive games has lost 11 of his L/12 with the average ppg diff clicking in around - 10 .

NBA Road teams SU - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an terrible defensive team (47.5% or worse), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against an average pressure are 29-9 with the average ppg diff clicking in at 5 ppg.

Play on the Raptors to cover

The Boston Celtics enter this game playing their best ball of year as is evident by winning 7 straight and 12 of their L/13. The champs are Timing themselves perfectly and are now fine Tuning their proverbial engines.as they prepare for the play offs. The Celtics will not over look the hard working Spurs and Im betting on a blowout. 

 Boston in away or neutral games on the money line versus teams who make 14 or more 3 point shots/game on the season are 10-1 on the season with the average ppf diff clicking in at +15.1 which qualifies on this ATS offering.

NBA team like San Antonio - after allowing 120 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more a´ 9-32 ATS since 2021 with average ppg diff clicking in at -13.8.

The Wolves have beaten the Suns all three times they have played this season, and dating back to last season have won 7 straight games in this series, and Im betting on another win from the home side Minnesota in this contest. Minnesota is well rested and has not played since the 24th and their lineup should be mostly available tonight and healthy- Note:Minnesota when playing only their 2nd game in 7 days are perfect 9-0 ATS this season, with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.1.Phoenix on the money line when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent are just 2-13 L/15 overall with the average ppg diff clicking in at -8.2 .

Play on the Wolves to cover

Chicago enters this game well rested and will be ready to run and gun here vs a Lakers team on tired legs after a 120-119 win last night at Indiana. The Bulls have scored 121-128, 146 and 129 on offense in their L/4 tilts and Im betting on another big 120 plus output here with the Lakers reciprocating with some offensive fireworks of their own.

Chicago ranks 6th in ppg offense in the league and 28th in ppg allowed. Meanwhile, Chicago is ranked 3rd in pace, and will force the Lakers into playing fast. 

Note: The LA Lakers versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game - 2nd half of the season are 21-5 OVER with a combined average of 245.7 ppg scored.

Play on the over

Pacers rank 8th in the NBA in ppg offense and 17th in ppg defense, behind the 9th ranked pace. Meanwhile, Washington ranks dead last in ppg allowed and 4th in pace. Note: Pacers played last nite and are on tired legs and will not be primed to play much defense. Getty up run and gun  scenario in play on a beatable totals offering. \

Over the total is 9-0-1 in the last 10 of head-to-head series played in  Washington between these sides. Recent games here in Washington has all eclipsed this offering. ( 4 meetings)

Play over 

These teams are currently playing at the opposite end of the performance spectrum, with the Lakers on a 3 game losing g streak and the Pacers on a 5 game winning run. Ill ride the momentum of the hotter home side.

From a key  SRS perspective the Pacers rank 13th with a 0.88 while the Lakers rank 14th with a 0.57 mark  Factoring in home court advantage the wrong side is favored giving us an edge with the Pacers. 

Pacers are 14-2 SU and 13-2-1 ATS in its L/16 in their  4th Straight Home game.

 Indiana is 6-1 ATS in the last seven games hosting the Lakers.

Play on the Pacers 

The Magic are playing their second game of a back-to-back, and will be in a even more conservative mode than usual vs a struggling Charlotte side with alot of scoring deficiencies ranking 28th in ppg scored in the NBA. 

the Magic versus poor teams like the hornets - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game are 7-20 to the under this season. Meanwhile, charlotte has gone under in 23 of 30 home games as a underdog.

Orlando games versus terrible teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game are 13-2 UNDER with a combined average of 204 ppg scored.Orlando games as a road favorite of 6 points or less are 12-1 UNDER with a combined average of 206.7 ppg scored.

All three previous meetings between these teams this season have all stayed below this offered total.

Play under

DAngelo Russel and Cameron Thomas are gone for the season and despite of some decent games from the remaining group, Im not liking alot of what I see of late from Brooklyn asi is evident  with them losing 6 of their L/7.  This is a win-able game for Dallas and they have looked alot more cohesive of late after the shock of losing Doncic has worn off. The Mavs took out Motown last time out, and almost took out Indiana ins a high scoring affair for two straight covers. /the Magic of three is in play tonight. 

The Nets have lost each of their last five games when playing with a rest disadvantage against the Mavericks.The Mavericks have covered the spread in each of their last five games as road favorites on the first leg of a back-to-back.The Nets have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games against teams that held a losing record.

NBA team vs the money line - off 2 road covers where the team lost straight up as an underdog, in March games are 24-67 since 1997 with the average ppg diff clicking in at -7.4.

Favorites are 10-0 SU in the last 10 in this  head-to-head non-conference series. 

Play on the Mavericks 

Cleveland is in a funk, after 4 straight losses, and will be primed to get back on track here vs an opponent that they can dominate. Im betting on the No.1 ranked  Cavs offense behind the 8th ranked pace  to come out here hitting on all cylinders vs a side ranked 29th in ppg allowed in the NBA , and for the Jazz behind the 9th ranked pace to chase their run and gun opponents into over territory. 

The OVER is 5-0 in Cleveland/Utah matchups since the 2023 season. Cleveland is 8-0 OVER  vs against Northwest division opponents with a combined average 248.9 ppg scored  and 21-3 OVER vs non conference opposition with a combined average of 243.6 ppg scored. 

Play on the OVER

 Sacramento D has looked a little shaky for a while now and  has gone over in  three straight and have gone over  in seven of their last eight overall. The Kings defense has been in the bottom 10 since the trade deadline and on the campaign. Since the All-Star break, teams are converting 39.4 percent from downtown vs the Kings  which is the third-highest in the NBA. The Kings rank 28th in the league for opponent three-point field goals made per game this season (14.7). I know the Bucks have been inconsistent of late offensively, but this is an opportunity to get things rolling and Im betting they will come out here here very aggressively on offense and force the home side to reciprocate with some offensive fire works of their own in game I have slated to eclipse this offered total.

The Bucks are off a DD win last time out which sets up this trend - Milwaukee games after a blowout win by 15 points or more are 14-2 OVER with a combined average of 231.2 ppg scored.

The OVER is 14-1 in Milwaukee/Sacramento matchups since the 2018 season and 6-1 OVER L/7 in the Californian capital.

NBA teams like the Kings where the total is 220 to 229.5 - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 34-11 OVER since 1997 with a combined average of 234 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, in March games 103-59 OVER since 2021 with a combined average of 228.7 ppg.

Play on over 

The Pacers took out the Nets, winning by a score of 105-99 in OT when these teams met  a few days back on March 20th.  Im now betting the Nets making the Pacers work hard for a win again. The Nets when playing without top scorer Cam Thomas, now out for the rest of the season with a hamstring, seem to rally and consolidate when he isn't available. So we could see them at their best. 

Indiana versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more - 2nd half of the season are 3-14 ATS this season. Also from a long shot moneyline perspective it must be noted thatt NBA team like Brooklyn vs the money line - a poor offensive team (104-108 PPG) against a poor defensive team (114-118 PPG), after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games are 41-17 SU since 1997.

Play on the Nets to cover and throw some pizza money down on the Nets to win outright .

Most of the  76ers core roster are out with key offensive contributors Maxey, Embiid, also on the sidelines and on the flip side the Spurs are without key contributors De'Aaron Fox and Victor Wembanyama . Overall both sides, have been playing pretty wide open hoops with their play off hopes no longer on the agenda. But right now Home teams like the San Antonio where the total is greater than or equal to 220 - off an upset win by 15 points or more as a home underdog, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 28-5 UNDER since 1997 with a combined average of 221.9 ppg scored. Also teams like Philadelphia where the total is greater than or equal to 230 - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, in March games are 120-73 UNDER for a 63% conversion rate since 1997 with a combined average of 232.6 ppg scored.

Spurs have gone under in  10 of 12 vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game .

Play under

The Knicks offense is ranked 6th in the NBA in ppg this season, and despite of playing a strong defensive game since early March , might have issues in this spot with key defensive contributor Robinson a little hobbled and  less than 100% right now and thus  his stopping abilities might be muted.  On the flip-side the Spurs are without top defensive stalwart Victor Wembanyama which will give the Knicks a opportunity for a big breakout offensive performance .The Spurs have recently been in  run and gun mode  averaging more than 123.4 ppg on offense while allowing 126.8 ppg on D  in their L/5 overall.Considering current form of both sides Im betting on a failry high combined score . 

These teams have gone over in their L/5 meetings with all the games eclipsing the current totals offering. 

Play over

Milwaukee looked over matched and exhausted in their last game out vs the Thunder, and Im betting their lack of conditioning behind an older group will rear its ugly head tonite. Doc Rivers in away or neutral games on the money line after a loss by 10 points or more is just 3-11 L/13 overall SU.  The Warriors 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in the last five games hosting Milwaukee.Note:

The Warriors have won 12 of their last 13 night games against Eastern Conference opponents.The Bucks have lost eight of their last 12 games as road favorites against Western Conference opponents.

Previous to losing last time out the Warriors had won 7 straight, and 12 of their L/13 overall and have not lost back to back games, sine January. 

Even if curry does not play here because this is a back to back for the Warriors Im betting they have enough juice in the tank to upset the Bucks who to me are an inconsistent group. \

Play on the Warriors to cover

The Raptors have been playing very competitive basketball of late winning 6 of their L/8 games, while covering 7 of those games ATS. Meanwhile, the Suns have lost 8 of their L/11 and look highly inconsistent. Both teams played last nite so neither side, has a rest advantage. Considering both sides overall recent performance charts Im betting on the road underdog to have the edge. Note:  Phoenix on the money line when playing on back-to-back days have lost 11 of their L/14 overall. Also Phoenix on the money line when playing their 3rd game in 4 days has lost 16 of their L/20 overall.

Raptors are  6-1 ATS in the last seven head-to-head meetings with Phoenix and get the nod in this spot play situation.  Toronto in non-conference games has covered 19 of their L/24 overall while the Suns are in non-conference games have failed to cover 17 of 21 games.

Play on the Raptors to cover

I know how well the Thunder are playing and how dominate they look and after going into Boston the other night and winning we now have a favorable line to bet into with Milwaukee. Hey this Thunder team is an elite side, but that does not matter in spot play situations. With that said, earlier this season, the Bucks were able to shut the door on the Bucks while beating them in the half court game and Im betting they have a formulated game plan that will once again frustrate the Thunder. Also in the rematch of the game where the Bucks shut down the Thunder in a N court environment, the juiced up Thunder got their revenge at home in dominating DD fashion, and now the home side in tit for tat mode  also has revenge in what is fast becoming a fierce rivalry.  Both teams played yesterday, but the difference is the Thunder are traveling while the Bucks stay at home, and slept in their own beds and will more rested. Note:The Bucks have won each of their last six home games with both teams on the second leg of a back-to-back.The Thunder have lost each of their last five games at Fiserv Forum.The Bucks have covered the spread in each of their last four home games against Western Conference opponents that own a .500 or better  record.The Thunder  are 0-4 ATS in their L/4 road games against Bucks teams with a .500 or better record. Bucks as a home underdog of 6 points or less have covered 3 of 4 games this season.

Play on the Bucks to cover

 The Cavaliers’ home-court record of  30-4 SU while covering the offered spread by  an average  +3.4 ppg has me supporting the home side to win their 15th straight game. Meanwhile, also considering the Magics erratic performances of late, and their 2-7 SU record in their L/9 games  I feel confident in the Cavs rolling to a convincing victory. Note: NBA Road underdogs SU - after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games against opponent red hot team - having won 18 or more of their last 20 games are 1-29 since 1997 with the average ppg diff clicking in at +12.6 which qualifies on this ATS offering. Also Cleveland are 20-2 off a road win with the average ppg diff clicking at +11.9. .Kenny Atkinson on the money line after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half is 12-1 with the average ppg diff clicking in at +12.2.

Play on Cleveland to cover

The Thunder are off a big road win vs the Celtics last time out , that was hard fought. This Im betting will have them in an emotional  letdown spot, early here in this game, which Im betting will see them be much more methodical in their approach vs a Detroit side that likes to start fast .  Also with the play offs right around the corner, this is a good opportunity for the well rested Thunder to hone their top tier defense and half court game.  Oklahoma City rank 1st in the NBA in defense rating efficiency. Detroit ranks 10th in defensive efficiency. Note: Oklahoma City games off an upset win as a road underdog have gone under 8 straight times with a combined average of 214.5 ppg.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 - excellent shooting team (47.5% or more ) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (14.5 TO's or more) 26-6 UNDER with a combined average of 217.1 ppg scored.

Play under

The Grizzlies have won 4 straight games, but 3 of those wins came against  sub .500   teams the Suns , Pelicans, and Jazz, and none were convincing , with  their other  victory coming against a depleted Dallas Mavericks side.  Meanwhile, the Cavaliers have won 14 straight,   and go against a a Grizzlies side that have lost each of their last four home games on the first leg of a back-to-back against the Cavaliers.It must also be noted that the  Grizzlies have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight home games, while the  Cavaliers have covered the spread in each of their last six games as road favorites when playing with a rest advantage(which they have). Cleveland has won 4 straight meetings in this series SU and get the nod again. 

Cleveland ranks 2nd in the NBA in SRS with a 10.28 while Memphis ranks 4th with a 5.45. Even factoring in home court advantage of a obligatory 3 points we have an edge. 

Cleveland has won 20 of 30 ATS on the road this season, and Memphis is barley above .500 ATS at home with a 17-16  ATS mark. 

Kenny Atkinson after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread is 9-0 ATS all with conclusive DD ppg differentials. The failed covers are thanks to the lines-makers jacking up premium line offerings on the hottest team in the NBA into the mid to high DD range..

Play on the Cavs. to cover

Boston is in a big bounce back situation vs the Heat here after suffering a loss to the Oklahoma city Thunder at home last time out.Im betting the defending champs come out here with a vengeance tonight vs a Miami side they have dominated in recent meetings, winning the last 5 meetings by DDs , while not allowing the Heat to eclipse the 89 point plateau.  The Celtics are also 12-4 ATS off a loss as a favorite.  The Heat have fail3d to cover 16 of 21 vs sides like boston who  are below average pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less turnovers/game.

NBA Home underdogs like the Heat - in a game involving two good shooting teams (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 55% or higher are 2-24 ATS dating back to 2024 with the average ppg diff clicking in at -11.3.

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover

Boston is off a poor defensive performance and loss vs the Oklahoma City Thunder at home last time out, and will be out to get their stopping game in gear here before the play offs. Also after the hard fought game against the Thunder, a more deliberate pace will Im betting bet set here today which will directly effect this total to low side of the offering. The Celtics rank 3rd in ppg allowed defense in the league behind the 27th ranked pace. Meanwhile, the Heat knowing the Celtics will be motivated to come out here strong, will be out to slow the pace of this game down, as to take the Celtics out of their rhythm. Miami own the 7th ranked ppg D, in the NBA 28th ranked D, so a grinding game is highly likely once again offering up value on this tilt staying under the totals offering.

Boston has gone under in 10 of 12 against Southeast division opponents this season. Boston versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less turnovers/game have gone under 15 of 18 games. Boston in their L/5 meetings with the Heat have not allowed more than 89 points on defense. None of the L/8 meetings in this series have eclipsed this totals offering.

Play under

Forest Gump Quote:  My mom always said life was like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're gonna get. Well the same holds true for the Orlando Magic since getting annihilated by a 122-82 count vs Cleveland back on Feb 25th the Magic have lost 6 of 7, with 4 of those loses coming by 2 points or less and one win vs a viable Milwaukee Bucks side. They have worked hard on D, with very little success, but this New Orleans side is one team they can handle, and Im betting they will be primed to play physical ball after three days of rest. Note: New Orleans on the money line versus good pressure defensive teams - forcing 15 or more turnovers/game are just 2-19 overall dating back to 2024. Orlando is 5-0 SU/ATS L/5 meetings in this series.

Play on Magic to cover

Raptors matchup well vs the Sixers and have already beat them twice this season. 

The 76ers have lost each of their last 11 night games against Eastern Conference opponents and Im betting nothing changes here tonight vs Toronto. 

The Raptors have won 13 of their last 15 home games against 76ers teams with a bove .500 record.
The 76ers have failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 13 games as road underdogs following a loss.
The Raptors have covered the spread in four of their last five games against Atlantic Division opponents that held a  record of .500 or less. 

Note: Road underdogs vs. the money line - in a game involving two average offensive teams (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 130 points or more have lost 29 of 30 dating back to 2021 season with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.8.

Play on Raptors to cover

The Thunder are the unsung hero's of the NBA this season, and must be respected in this spot vs the defending champions in what Im expecting to be a hard fought game.

From a SRS perspective Boston is ranked 3rd in the NBA with a 8.26 mark while Oklahoma city is ranked 1st with the 12.47 . Advantage Thunder.

SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average

Oklahoma City is 4-1 against the spread versus Boston since the 2023 season.

NBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points - off 2 or more consecutive home wins, in March games are 9-33 ATS since 2021 with the average ppg diff clicking in at +0.7 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering.

Play on Oklahoma City to cover

Pelicans might be in something we refer to as tank mode, but Im betting they have enough left in  the tank to at least make this a fairly close event and for us to get the cover.  Note: This New Orleans team also came to life last time out vs Memphis and lost 107-104 and are capable of hanging tough here according to my projections. The Clippers have won 3 straight, but they have only covered 7 of their L/9 overall. New Orleans on the money line after 2 consecutive division games are 12-2 L/14 opportunities.

New Orleans  is 14-2 ATS in the last 16 games versus LAC. 

NBA Favorites vs. the money line - off a home win against a division rival, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a bad team (25 to 40%) are have only won 9 of their L/27 games SU.

Play on the Pelicans to cover

Key players will not play for the Lakers tonight with Doncic listed as questionable  and James listed as out, as well as   Rui Hachimura, Dorian Finney-Smith and Jaxson Hayes . With this being their first game off a hard fought physical  loss  since playing the Celtics on Saturday night I expect a letdown outing , vs a Nets team that has been mostly competetive lately covering,  .6 of 7  ATS as home underdogs of 6.5  or lees points. 

The Nets have won each of their last six home games on the first leg of a back-to-back after losing as favorites.The Lakers have lost each of their last three road games against opponents who are on the first leg of a back-to-back.The Nets have covered the spread in each of their last four games against Western Conference opponents that held a winning record.The Lakers have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games as road favorites against Eastern Conference opponents.

NBA team vs the money line like Brooklyn - off a close road loss of 3 points or less, in March games are 35-19 Since 2021.

Play on Nets