Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
06-18-22 | Lightning +1.5 v. Avalanche | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -200 | 54 h 44 m | Show |
NHL Game of the Week. My selection is on Tampa Bay +1.5 goals over Colorado at 8 pm et on Saturday. As I've noted time and time again in these playoffs, long winning streaks just aren't commonplace in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Here, we find the Avalanche coming off six consecutive victories, a streak that I believe is getting a little long in the tooth. The Lightning couldn't have got off to much worse of a start in Game 1 yet still ended up pushing the Avs to overtime before falling by a 4-3 score. Here, we'll note that Tampa Bay checks in 26-7 when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.4 goals on average. Better still, the Bolts are 30-9 when seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored 4+ goals over the same stretch, outscoring the opposition by 1.5 goals on average in that spot. Additionally, Tampa Bay is 33-15 when trailing a playoff series, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.6 goals. While Colorado has now taken consecutive meetings against the Lightning on home ice, Tampa Bay is no stranger to winning in Denver, having reeled off five consecutive road wins in this series previously. Take Tampa Bay +1.5 goals (10*). |
|||||||
06-17-22 | Phillies -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
N.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia -1.5 runs over Washington at 1:05 pm et on Friday. We won with the Phillies last night as they trounced the Nationals in the opener of this series. I won't hesitate to go right back to the well with them on Friday afternoon in Game 1 of the day-night double-header. Ranger Suarez will take the ball for Philadelphia. His numbers certainly don't jump off the page this season, but they're far superior to those of Nationals starter Joan Adon, who inexplicably remains in the rotation despite a 6.95 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. Suarez checks in with a sub-4.00 career FIP with that number sitting at 4.17 this season. Again, his numbers don't really pop but Adon has allowed north of 10 hits and just shy of six walks, not to mention 7.3 runs per nine innings. Of course, starting pitching is only part of the equation and right now the Phillies are locked in at the plate, entering last night's game hitting .285 as a team over the last week. They also entered last night's action averaging 5.4 runs per game on the road while the Nats average just 3.7 runs per contest at home. While the Phillies bullpen is always a concern, I expect them to do enough offensively that it won't matter on Friday afternoon. Take Philadelphia -1.5 runs (10*). |
|||||||
06-16-22 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 10-2 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto -1.5 runs over Baltimore at 3:05 pm et on Thursday. The Blue Jays have taken two of the first three games in this series after an extra innings victory last night. While Kevin Gausman dealt with possible pitch-tipping against the Twins a couple of starts back, he settled right back in against the Tigers last time out. He has posted a ridiculous 1.76 FIP this season, indicating his 5-5 win-loss record doesn't tell the whole story. While Gausman has yielded north of nine hits per nine innings, he's made up for it by limiting opponents to 1.3 walks and striking out just shy of 10 batters per nine frames. Tyler Wells has held his own for the Orioles but his numbers pale in comparison to those of the veteran Gausman. While the O's have managed to take one game already in this series and generally prove to be a 'tough out', I expect the Blue Jays to build off last night's walk-off win with a convincing series-clinching victory on Thursday. Take Toronto -1.5 runs (10*). |
|||||||
06-14-22 | Braves -1.5 v. Nationals | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. I'm not sure Max Fried gets nearly enough credit as he's clearly one of the best starting pitchers in baseball and has been for a number of years. We've seen more of the same from Fried this season as he has recorded an impressive 2.90 FIP and 1.04 WHIP, not to mention a near 6-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Meanwhile, the Nationals are forced to turn to Jackson Tetreault on short notice after Stephen Strasburg landed back in the I.L. Tetreault has posted a 4.19 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 58 innings of work at the AAA level this season. His strikeout-to-walk ratio sits just north of 2-1 and that's against AAA hitters. While the Braves bullpen owns an edge over the Nationals relief corps at the best of times, here we find Washington's 'pen overworked, having logged north of 30 innings over their last seven games. Even if Atlanta can't break it open early, I'm confident they will late. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
06-14-22 | Latvia -1.5 v. Liechtenstein | 2-0 | Win | 107 | 4 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Latvia -1.5 goals over Liechtenstein at 2:45 pm et on Tuesday. It's difficult enough for teams in the higher Nations League divisions to get up for these last matches prior to a much-needed summer break, let alone a bottom-feeding minnow such as Liechtenstein. While Latvia paces the D division, Liechtenstein sits at the bottom, having managed just one goal in three Nations League matches - that coming against fellow minnow Andorra. Latvia only managed to defeat today's opponent by a 1-0 score in their previous meeting on June 6th. It wasn't for lack of trying, however, as the Latvians pressed for 90 minutes, possessing the ball at a 62% clip while firing an incredible 20 shots from inside the box. They made a whopping 376 accurate passes in the match compared to 196 by Liechtenstein. While Liechtenstein does have the benefit of home field advantage for this rematch, I expect Latvia to be all-business as it looks to wrap up a perfect group stage in convincing fashion. Take Latvia -1.5 goals (9*). |
|||||||
06-13-22 | Celtics +3.5 v. Warriors | Top | 94-104 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week. My selection is on Boston plus the points over Golden State at 9 pm et on Monday. Most had probably written the Warriors off at the end of the first half in Game 4 on Friday as they coughed up a second quarter lead and went into the break down by five points, looking down-trodden at best. From there, Steph Curry took over, lifting them to a much-needed victory to even this series at two games apiece. Now it's the Celtics turn to respond and I expect them to do just that on Monday. Note that Golden State knocked down 40 field goals for the first time in this series on Friday, but only got there thanks to getting off 91 field goal attempts. I don't expect that same pace to be there for the Warriors on Monday, however. In three meetings between these two teams in San Francisco this season, Boston has held Golden State to 86, 88 and 86 field goal attempts. It's certainly worth noting that the Celtics have allowed fewer than 40 made field goals in all seven games following a loss in these playoffs. They've also gone a perfect 7-0 in those contests. Note that Boston checks in 10-2 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss this season and 15-5 ATS when coming off an outright loss as a favorite, with both situations coming into play following Friday's 107-97 loss. Take Boston (10*). |
|||||||
06-12-22 | Marlins v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
MLB Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Miami at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. Marlins starter Edward Cabrera is off to a terrific start this season, allowing just one earned run in 12 innings of work. Of course, he's been able to pitch comfortably in both of those outings as his team's bats absolutely exploded, putting up 14 runs against Colorado and 12 runs against Washington. I expect a much different story to unfold today as the Marlins go up against Astros ace Justin Verlander. Verlander hardly pitched over the last two seasons but has come back strong here in 2022, posting a 2.13 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in 71 2/3 innings of work. The Astros check in 7-1 over his last eight outings, winning four of those games by at least two runs, including a 4-1 victory over Seattle earlier this week - a game in which Verlander allowed only one earned run while striking out a season-high 12 in seven innings. Here, we'll note that the Marlins are a woeful 1-10 when coming off five consecutive games in which they allowed four runs or less over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 2.5 runs on average in that situation. After dropping the first two games in this series we'll look for the Astros to bounce back big on Sunday. Take Houston -1.5 (10*). |
|||||||
06-11-22 | Rangers +1.5 v. Lightning | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 34 h 49 m | Show |
My selection is on New York +1.5 goals over Tampa Bay at 8 pm et on Saturday. The Lightning were left for dead in this series by some after digging an 0-2 hole entering Game 3 last Sunday. They also trailed Game 3 by two goals in the second period before rallying for a 3-2 victory. Save for their 4-1 Game 4 victory nothing has come all that easy for the Bolts in this series and that's to be expected as they're getting the Rangers best punch as they try to march on to their third straight Stanley Cup Final (and potential championship). I don't expect the Blueshirts to go away quietly on Saturday and we'll gladly grab the insurance goal as they try to stave off elimination. Note that New York checks in 11-3 after allowing 3+ goals in three consecutive games this season, outscoring opponents by 1.0 goal on average in that situation. The Rangers have allowed just 1.6 goals per game and outscored opponents by 1.2 goals on average when playing on the road seeking revenge for three consecutive losses against an opponent over the last two seasons (11-game sample size), as is the case here. Finally, we'll note that Tampa Bay is just 2-7 and has been outscored by an average margin of 2.2 goals after winning eight or more of its last 10 games this season, which is also the situation here. Take New York +1.5 goals (10*). |
|||||||
06-11-22 | Marlins v. Astros -1.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston -1.5 runs over Miami at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Astros have had a miserable week so far but I look for them to bounce back from Friday's loss on Saturday afternoon against Miami. Framber Valdez has arguably been the Astros most reliable starter this season, going 6-2 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Braxton Garrett has made just one start for the Marlins this season but his career numbers aren't all that encouraging. In 45 career big league innings he has posted a 5.19 FIP, allowing 11 hits and 5.2 walks per nine innings. While his strikeout numbers are there, he's not likely going to get a loaded Astros lineup chasing too often on Saturday. We'll lay the extra run with Houston here, noting that it has won each of Valdez's last five starts by multiple runs. Take Houston -1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
06-10-22 | Rockies v. Padres -1.5 | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 27 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego -1.5 runs over Colorado at 9:40 pm et on Friday. The Rockies barely broke a sweat in taking two of three games from the slumping Giants in San Francisco. I suspect they'll find the going much tougher as they head to San Diego on Friday. Credit Chad Kuhl for holding up well for the Rockies after coming over from the Pirates in the offseason. It's not easy to go from making the majority of your starts at pitcher-friendly PNC Park in Pittsburgh to hitter's paradise Coors Field in Denver. He's not at the same level as Padres starter Joe Musgrove though, who belongs firmly in the N.L. Cy Young conversation based on early returns this season. While Kuhl has posted a 3.94 FIP, Musgrove checks in with a 2.76. Musgrove averages 1.4 fewer walks per nine innings while striking out 1.9 strikeouts more. That's not to mention the fact that Musgrove is giving up just 0.5 home runs per nine innings. Of course, starting pitching is only part of the equation and right now hitting appears to be a mismatch as well as the Padres have been absolutely raking lately, plating 42 runs in their last six games including 25 in taking two of three from the Mets here at Petco Park earlier this week. As I mentioned, the Rockies bats weren't exactly tearing the cover off the ball in San Francisco, they simply outlasted a Giants offense that simply isn't producing right now. Take San Diego -1.5 runs (9*). |
|||||||
06-10-22 | Warriors +4 v. Celtics | Top | 107-97 | Win | 100 | 35 h 53 m | Show |
NBA Finals First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State first half plus the points over Boston at 9 pm et on Friday. The Warriors didn't play particularly well in Game 3 of this series as the 'zig-zag' trend continued. Here, I look for a positive response from Golden State, at least early in Game 4 on Friday night. Note that the Warriors are 30-15 ATS in the first half after suffering a loss by 15+ points in their previous game over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.0 point on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Celtics are a woeful 5-15 ATS in the first half when playing at home off a home victory this season, outscored by 0.1 points on average in that spot. I'm not willing to bet against the Celtics making the necessary halftime adjustments at home should they fall behind early in this one, instead we'll grab the points with Golden State in the first 24 minutes on Friday. Take Golden State first half (10*). |
|||||||
06-10-22 | Storm -2.5 v. Wings | Top | 89-88 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
WNBA Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Dallas at 8 pm et on Friday. We missed with the Storm in the last meeting between these two teams last week as Seattle was trounced by 17 points, at home no less. The Wings have now taken the last two matchups in this series but I look for the Storm to get their revenge on Friday. This will be Dallas' first game back home since May 21st as it comes off a tough five-game road trip that saw it go 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS. We saw some signs of tired legs from the Wings at the tail-end of that trip as they knocked down just 26 and 27 field goals in their last two games. In the latter performance they actually got off a whopping 78 field goal attempts against Las Vegas. That doesn't bode well as they prepare to face a stingy Storm defense that has allowed fewer than 70 field goal attempts in nine of its last 10 games. While Wings' opponents have been 'filling it up' lately, making good on 30+ field goals in three of their last four games, the Storm have limited four of their last five opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. We'll note that Seattle is a long-term 104-77 ATS when coming off four or five losses ATS in their last six games, as is the case here. The best is yet to come from the Storm at both ends of the floor and I look for them to build off Tuesday's double-digit win over the Dream on Friday. Take Seattle (10*). |
|||||||
06-09-22 | Montreal +3.5 v. Calgary | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 37 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Montreal plus the points over Calgary at 9 pm et on Thursday. While the Alouettes reached the East semis against Hamilton last year, optimism isn't particularly high heading into the 2022 campaign, with more of the talk surrounding who isn't back rather than who is. Regardless, I like their opening week matchup as they head west to face a Calgary squad that many seem to be high on, but I'm not so easily convinced. QB Bo Levi Mitchell is one of the league's biggest stars but at 32 years old and coming off another injury-plagued season, I question whether he's all the way back. We saw him appear in just one preseason game, completing 3-of-10 passes for 37 yards. I realize preseason results can be taken with a grain of salt but that performance certainly wasn't all that encouraging. The Stamps offense will go as far as RB Kadeem Carey can take them - I'm just not sure there's enough there at the skill positions to provide a great deal of support. The addition of LB Cameron Judge from Toronto is intriguing but I would rate the Stamps defense as average at best, and then enter Week 1 missing a number of key cogs in the secondary due to various injuries, including newly-acquired DB Elie Bouka. It's also worth noting that Calgary is expected to be without punter Cody Grace for this game as well as he deals with a groin injury. Specials teams are an often overlooked but particularly important part of the game when handicapping the CFL and its unique rules. I'm high on the Als offense once again this year with RB William Stanback and WRs Eugene Lewis and Jake Weineke. The offense has the potential to be quite versatile once again with Trevor Harris capable of stepping in for Vernon Adams Jr. under centre should the latter falter. Take Montreal (10*). |
|||||||
06-08-22 | Phillies v. Brewers +1.5 | 10-0 | Loss | -145 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'm surprised we're seeing the Brewers in an underdog role here but perhaps shouldn't be as the Phillies have reeled off five consecutive victories while Milwaukee checks in riding a four-game skid. I'll take advantage of the opportunity to grab an insurance run at what I consider to be a reasonable price with the home side on Wednesday. Note that Philadelphia is a miserable 8-20 when playing on the road after winning five or six of its last seven games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 1.0 run on average in that situation. They're also just 20-37 after giving up two runs or less in their previous game over the same stretch, outscored by 1.2 runs on average in that spot. The Brewers seemingly have the right pitcher on the mound to stop their skid, noting they've gone 9-1 in Adrian Houser's last 10 starts in an underdog role. Meanwhile, the Phillies are just 7-15 the last 22 times Aaron Nola takes the ball following a victory in their previous game. Take Milwaukee +1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
06-08-22 | Sky v. Mystics -3 | 82-84 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington minus the points over Chicago at 8 pm et on Wednesday. Credit the Sky for shooting the lights out in Sunday's 91-82 victory over the Mystics - improving to 2-0 in this matchup this season. I don't expect a repeat performance as the scene shifts to Washington for Wednesday's rematch, however. Note that Chicago continues to afford its opponents a ton of scoring opportunities, relatively speaking. The Sky have seen each of their last seven opponents get off at least 70 field goal attempts. Washington managed 75 on Sunday - 10 more than Chicago - but couldn't make the most of them, unable to keep pace with a Sky squad that was blistering from the field (55%). Washington does continue to do a fine job of keeping down its opponents scoring opportunities, allowing 66 or fewer FG attempts in 10 of its last 11 games. On the flip side, even with Elena Delle Donne in and out of the lineup, the Mystics have been 'filling it up', knocking down 28, 33, 28 and 34 field goals over their last four contests. Here, we'll note that Chicago is a long-term 43-65 ATS after scoring 90+ points in its previous game, as is the case here. Take Washington (6*). |
|||||||
06-07-22 | Dream v. Storm -7 | 60-72 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Atlanta at 10 pm et on Tuesday. I simply feel the Dream are in the wrong place at the wrong time on Tuesday night as they face a Storm squad coming off rare consecutive home losses. Seattle ran into a couple of red hot opponents in Dallas and Connecticut and suffered back-to-back defeats, as a favorite on both occasions. The Storm are favored again on Tuesday, and for good reason. Atlanta checks in off a nine-point victory over the lowly Indiana Fever. We've seen the Dream offense cool off over the last couple of games, making good on just 26 and 29 field goals. I'm not convinced they'll get a wealth of scoring opportunities in this one, noting that Seattle has held its last three opponents to just 65, 66 and 58 field goal attempts. Last time out, the Storm's opponent, an elite Connecticut Sun squad, shot the lights out - making good on 32 field goals. It happens. Seattle is still a top-flight defensive team, noting that it has held opponents to just 28-of-67 shooting on average here at home this season. Likewise, Atlanta has done a nice job of limiting its opponents opportunities lately, yielding 61 or fewer FG attempts in four of its last six games. Here, I expect Seattle to push the pace a little more than Atlanta's recent opponents, however, noting that the Storm have gotten off 70+ FG attempts in seven of their last nine contests. This is an ideal bounce-back spot for Seattle before it heads out on the road for a difficult five-game road trip. Take Seattle (8*). |
|||||||
06-07-22 | Lynx v. Liberty -2.5 | Top | 69-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
WNBA Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on New York minus the points over Minnesota at 8 pm et on Tuesday. New York had its two-game win streak snapped at the hands of Minnesota on Sunday but I look for it to earn a quick ounce of revenge in Tuesday's rematch at Madison Square Garden. Minnesota's opponents have been 'filling it up', knocking down 31+ field goals in five of its last seven games with the low-water mark over that stretch being 28. Last time out, the Lynx shot the lights out but still won by 'only' seven points. The pace hasn't necessarily been there to match Minnesota's offensive production, noting that it has gotten off just 52, 60 and 63 field goal attempts over its last three games. I'm not convinced it can match the 31 made field goals it recorded on Sunday in Tuesday's rematch. I don't like what I've seen from the Lynx defensively as they've afforded their opponents far too many scoring opportunities, allowing 71 or more field goal attempts in four of their last five games. With New York coming off one of its best shooting efforts of the season on Sunday (it knocked down 32-of-71 FG attempts), I believe the door is open for it to hang a crooked number on the scoreboard on Tuesday. The Lynx have yet to string together consecutive victories this season and are 0-4 after scoring 80+ points, as is the case here. Take New York (10*). |
|||||||
06-05-22 | Celtics v. Warriors -4 | 88-107 | Win | 100 | 61 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Boston at 8 pm et on Sunday. We missed with our big play on the Warriors but did cash the 'over' in Game 1 of this series on Thursday. That was obviously a painful loss as Golden State entered the fourth quarter with a 12-point lead but couldn't make it stand up. Chalk it up to a case of the Celtics simply not missing from beyond the arc. Boston knocked down 21 three-pointers in that contest - similar to what we saw in Game 2 last round against the Heat. You may remember how Game 3 went as Miami controlled proceedings from the opening tip and cruised to an outright underdog road win. Here, the Warriors will look to bounce back on their home floor and I expect them to do just that. Note that Golden State is 25-12 ATS when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 6.3 points on average in that situation. Boston made good on 43 field goals in Game 1 and that's notable as it hasn't posted consecutive 40+ field goal games since Games 4 and 5 against Milwaukee back in the second round. Note that it lost the second of those games both SU and ATS. Take Golden State (10*). |
|||||||
06-05-22 | Wings v. Aces -6.5 | 78-84 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Las Vegas minus the points over Dallas at 6 pm et on Sunday. We missed fading the Wings in their most recent game as they stunned Seattle by double-digits on Friday night. I expect a different story to unfold as they continue their road trip in Las Vegas on Sunday. Note that Dallas' win on Friday had everything to do with Seattle coming out completely flat, ultimately making good on just 20-of-63 field goal attempts in that game. Here, the Wings aren't likely to be so fortunate against an Aces squad that has been absolutely filling it up (as usual), knocking down 31+ field goals in six straight games. While the Aces haven't exactly been dominant defensively - far from it, in fact- they do catch a favorable matchup here as Dallas wraps up a long five-game road trip, noting that it has made good on 28 or fewer field goals in three of its last four contests. Take Las Vegas (8*). |
|||||||
06-03-22 | Wings v. Storm -5.5 | Top | 68-51 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Dallas at 10 pm et on Friday. Seattle hasn't fared particularly well from an ATS perspective as a favorite over the last couple of seasons but that's had a lot to do with the fact that we've generally seen inflated prices when it comes to the perennial contenders. That's not the case anymore, as evidenced by tonight's line - note that in two home games against Dallas last year Seattle was favored by 9 and 9.5 points. The Storm are in a fine spot here, rested and at home on the heels of four consecutive wins, however they went just 2-2 ATS over that stretch, also helping to keep this line in check. Additionally, they'll be without Sue Bird once again due to Covid protocols on Friday. She's struggled in the early going this season anyway, in what is likely to be her WNBA swan song season. Dallas checks in off consecutive losses against Connecticut and Los Angeles. The Wings most recent setback was particularly concerning as they got off 74 field goal attempts - knocking down 33 of them - while holding the Sparks to just 56 FG attempts yet still fell short. The Wings have now allowed 31, 29, 29, 27, 34 and 36 made field goals in their six road games this season. Here, we'll note that Seattle is a long-term 103-75 ATS when coming off four or five ATS losses in their last six games, as is the case here. Take Seattle (10*). |
|||||||
06-02-22 | Sun +5 v. Aces | 97-90 | Win | 100 | 14 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Connecticut plus the points over Las Vegas at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Sun hung with the Aces for four quarters two nights ago but simply couldn't knock down enough shots to prevail (or cover), falling by eight points. Credit Connecticut for getting off 78 field goal attempts in that contest. I expect them to fare better offensively on Thursday as they look to salvage a split here in Sin City. The Aces held a 20-12 edge in terms of free throw attempts, making good on 10 more shots from the charity stripe. The Sun are generally a disciplined defensive team and I expect them to bounce back in that regard here on Thursday. Things can go south in a hurry for Connecticut considering this is the front-end of a back-to-back set against Las Vegas and Phoenix (both on the road). I'm confident we'll see the Sun rise to the occasion. Take Connecticut (8*). |
|||||||
06-02-22 | Celtics v. Warriors -3.5 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Boston at 9 pm et on Thursday. I get the feeling this might be the best price we get to back the Warriors at home all series. We just won with Boston in Game 7 of its Eastern Conference Finals showdown against Miami. Of course, the Celtics struggled to put the Heat away late in the fourth quarter of that contest. We saw the C's and Warriors split two regular season matchups with each team winning on the other's home court. I expect a different story to unfold in the opener of this series, however. Note that Boston was held to 36 or fewer made field goals in six of seven games against Miami last round. It had a tough enough time just getting shots off, attempting fewer than 80 field goals in five of the seven contests. The Warriors on the other hand have been locked-in offensively for months now. They enter this series having knocked down 40+ field goals in 16 of their last 21 games. On the flip side, they just held Dallas to 37 or fewer made field goals in four of five games in the Western Conference Finals. After an up-tempo series against the Grizzlies, they limited the Mavericks to 86 or fewer FG attempts in all five games last round. Regardless how this series plays out pace-wise, I expect Golden State to be comfortable. Here, we'll note that the Warriors are 9-1 ATS when playing at home seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent this season, as is the case here after dropping a lopsided 110-88 affair here in mid-March, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 13.3 points in that situation. Take Golden State (10*). |
|||||||
06-02-22 | Oilers +1.5 v. Avalanche | 0-4 | Loss | -145 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Edmonton +1.5 goals over Colorado at 8 pm et on Thursday. As I've mentioned time and time again during these playoffs, long winning streaks simply aren't commonplace in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. So it didn't come as a surprise that we saw Edmonton drop Game 1 of this series as it came in riding a four-game winning streak. Here, I look for the Oilers to answer back, noting they've gone 9-2 when playing on the road off a road loss by 2+ goals over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.6 goals on average in that situation. Perhaps even better still, they're 33-13 after allowing 5+ goals in their previous game over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.2 goals in that spot. After their dominant Game 1 performance, it's easy to forget that the Avalanche didn't win by more than a single goal in any of their three regular season meetings with the Oilers. Take Edmonton +1.5 goals (8*). |
|||||||
05-31-22 | Sun +5 v. Aces | 81-89 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Connecticut plus the points over Las Vegas at 9 pm et on Tuesday. |
|||||||
05-28-22 | Real Madrid +0.5 v. Liverpool | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 32 h 36 m | Show |
Champions League Game of the Year. My selection is on Real Madrid +0.5 goals over Liverpool at 3 pm et on Saturday. There's something special about this Real Madrid squad. It hasn't faced an easy road to reach this Champions League Final - not by any stretch of the imagination. Los Blancos have had to outlast the likes of Paris Saint-Germain, Chelsea and Manchester City, erasing second half deficits in a number of matches thanks in large part to the heroics of one of the world's best players in Karim Benzema. Now comes arguably the toughest test of all as Liverpool has gone undefeated across its last 18 matches. I'm confident Real Madrid will be up for the challenge. I understand the overwhelming support for Liverpool in this match. After all, Real Madrid could certainly be considered 'lucky' to be here given the nature of its recent Champions League victories. Liverpool on the other hand hasn't left much doubt. There's also the matter of this match being played in France, rather than Madrid where Los Blancos delivered their unthinkable comeback victories. Note that while Los Blancos last two matches resulted in rather uninspiring draws against Cadiz and Real Betis, those lackluster performances weren't unexpected as they had already wrapped up the La Liga crown and were already preparing for this showdown with Liverpool. There's really nothing negative I can say about the Reds here. They field a tremendous level of talent across the board. If there is perhaps one advantage Real Madrid might have it is in the last line of defense as keeper Thibault Courtois has been outstanding and can tilt the scales in a match such as this. Liverpool keeper Alisson is elite in his own right but doesn't bring the same form as Courtois. While most are anticipating plenty of offensive fireworks in this one, I'm counting on a tight, low-scoring affair and that should favor underdog Real Madrid. We'll grab the half-goal as insurance as we should be in for another 'instant classic'. Take Real Madrid +0.5 goals (10*). |
|||||||
05-27-22 | Heat +9 v. Celtics | Top | 111-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
Eastern Conference First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami first half plus the points over Boston at 8:30 pm et on Friday. The Heat were embarrassed in the second half of Game 5 two nights ago, on their home floor no less. Most have completely written them off as the series shifts back to Boston for Game 6 - a potential elimination game for Miami having dug itself a 3-2 series hole. I do expect the Heat to come out fighting in this one, however, and will grab them with the generous handful of points in the first half on Friday night. Note that Miami has gone 13-5 ATS in the first half after losing consecutive games ATS this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an impressive 5.3-point margin in that situation. The Celtics on the other hand are a woeful 3-12 ATS in the first half when playing at home off consecutive ATS victories this season, outscored by 0.4 points on average in that spot. The last time we saw these teams meet in Boston in Game 4 the Celtics built an insurmountable 57-33 lead at halftime. The Heat did respond by leading by five at the half in Game 5 but it still wasn't enough as they couldn't keep it going in the second half. We won't worry about the second half on Friday, instead backing the Heat in the game's first 24 minutes as I expect them to give the Celtics their best punch, early on at least. Take Miami first half (10*). |
|||||||
05-26-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -6.5 | Top | 110-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Western Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Dallas at 9 pm et on Thursday. Simply put, the Mavericks haven't found enough scoring opportunities to truly stay competitive in this series, noting that they've been held to 86, 78, 75 and 82 field goal attempts through the first four games. Fortunately, they shot the lights out in Game 4, staving off elimination for one game at least. The problem is, they haven't been able to stop the Warriors offense. Golden State enters Game 5 on Thursday having made good on 41, 46, 46, 38 and 41 field goals over its last five games. Unlike the Mavs, who have been held to fewer than 80 FG attempts in four of their last seven contests, the Warriors have gotten off 80+ in 12 straight games. Here, we'll note that Golden State is 8-1 ATS when playing at home seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 13.6 points on average in that situation. Take Golden State (10*). |
|||||||
05-25-22 | Celtics v. Heat +1.5 | Top | 93-80 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Finals Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Boston at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. The Heat had their doors blown off two nights ago in Boston, falling behind by an almost insurmountable deficit early and never recovering. That's not to say the opportunities weren't there, however. They actually got off 90 field goal attempts in the loss (compared to just 78 for the Celtics). In fact, the Celtics have been held to fewer than 80 field goal attempts in three of the first four games of this series and haven't reached 90 field goal attempts in a game since back on April 10th in Memphis. Boston has gone 1-5 ATS after attempting fewer than 80 field goals in consecutive games over the last three seasons. Here, we'll also note that Miami checks in 10-1 ATS after scoring 100 points or less in a game this season, outscoring opponents by 13.3 points on average in that situation. The Celtics on the other hand are just 3-5 ATS when coming off a home win by 20+ points this season. Take Miami (10*). |
|||||||
05-25-22 | Blues +1.5 v. Avalanche | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis +1.5 goals over Colorado at 8 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the Blues on the puck-line in Game 4 of this series as they did well to battle back from a 4-1 deficit to get within a goal prior to the third period but ultimately fell by a 6-3 score. I do like them to make life difficult on the Avs in Wednesday's potential elimination game, noting that St. Louis checks in 10-3 when playing on the road seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 1.2 goals on average in that spot. Perhaps better still, the Blues are 10-2 when coming off a game in which they gave up 6+ goals over the same stretch, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.3 goals in that situation. The Avs on the other hand are a long-term 53-64 when returning home following a road win by 2+ goals. Noting that St. Louis has been a 'tough out' on the road all season, actually outscoring opponents by 0.7 goals on average (remember it lost in overtime in Game 1 of this series before winning game 2 by a 4-1 score, I look for it to hang tough again here. Take St. Louis +1.5 goals (8*). |
|||||||
05-25-22 | Guardians +1.5 v. Astros | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland +1.5 runs over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the Guardians in Cal Quantrill's most recent start but probably deserved better as they led early and Quantrill did his part, pitching seven solid innings in an eventual 4-2 loss to the Reds. Quantrill has now worked at least six innings in five straight starts and owns a sub-1.20 WHIP on the season. He pitched reasonably well in his lone outing against the Astros last season, also working into the sixth inning and giving up only three earned runs in a tight 4-3 loss. Cristian Javier will counter for Houston. The Astros are just 5-7 against the -1.5 run-line in his 12 career home starts. He had his best stuff working in his most recent start but it still wasn't enough to secure a victory as the 'Stros fell by a 3-0 score at home against the Rangers. For the season, Javier owns a rather pedestrian 4.50 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. The bullpens are a virtual wash between these two teams on the season. I do like the fact that the Guardians had an off day last Saturday (due to a rain-out) while the Astros haven't been idle since May 9th. They'll certainly have one eye on tomorrow's off-day. Note that Houston hasn't managed to win consecutive games against the Guardians by 2+ runs over the course of the last seven meetings with Cleveland going 5-2 when factoring in the +1.5 run-line over that stretch. Take Cleveland +1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
05-24-22 | Hurricanes +1.5 v. Rangers | 1-4 | Loss | -250 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Carolina +1.5 goals over New York at 7 pm et on Tuesday. The home team has won all three games so far in this series. In fact, the home team has now won all 10 of Carolina's playoff games to date. I believe that works in our favor here as we're able to grab the insurance goal with the Hurricanes on Tuesday night, noting that the home team hasn't won more than three consecutive games in this particular matchup since the 2016-17 season. While the Rangers took Game 3 of this series on Sunday (we won with New York in that game), you could certainly argue that the Hurricanes were the better team for much of the game, outshooting New York by a 44-33 margin. Carolina has already won twice at Madison Square Garden this season and checks in 25-20 away from home, outscoring opponents by 0.4 goals on average. When playing on the road off a loss against a division opponent over the last two seasons, we've seen the Canes outscored the opposition by 0.3 goals on average, allowing just 2.5 goals per contest in that situation (33-game sample size). We're obviously being asked to play a steep price to grab the insurance goal with Carolina here, but I believe it's warranted. Take Carolina +1.5 goals (6*). |
|||||||
05-23-22 | Avalanche v. Blues +1.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -165 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
Second Round Puck-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on St. Louis +1.5 goals over Colorado at 9:30 pm et on Monday. We won with the Avalanche on Saturday as they skated to a 5-2 victory to grab a 2-1 series lead. I won't hesitate to go the other way on Monday, however, as the Blues look to answer back, just as they did in Game 2 of the series. Yes, St. Louis lost goaltender Jordan Binnington to an injury after a questionable play from Nazim Kadri in Game 3 on Saturday. Ville Husso is certainly a capable backup, however, noting that he actually began the playoffs as the starter before being replaced by Binnington following a couple of poor performances against the Wild. Prior to Game 2 of the opening round against Minnesota, Husso had gone a perfect 12-0 in his last 12 starts when factoring in the +1.5 puck-line, as we'll be using to our advantage here. Note that Colorado has allowed 4.1 goals per game, outscored by an average margin of 0.3 goals when coming off a road win in which it scored 4+ goals over the last two seasons (14-game sample size). Meanwhile, St. Louis checks in averaging 3.8 goals per contest and outscoring opponents by 0.5 goals on average when coming off two losses in its last three games this season (25-game sample size), as is the case here. This is obviously a critical game for the Blues as they're not likely to reel off three straight victories against a team as good as the Avalanche should they dig a 3-1 series hole. Note that St. Louis has responded well to adversity in these playoffs, notching victories on both previous occasions when trailing a series with those two wins coming by a combined 9-3 margin. Take St. Louis +1.5 goals (10*). |
|||||||
05-22-22 | Sun -11.5 v. Fever | 92-70 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Connecticut minus the points over Indiana at 2 pm et on Sunday. We saw the Sun turn in one of the worst quarters of defensive basketball we've seen them play in years on Friday night, allowing 34 points in the fourth quarter against the Fever. They still ended up winning the game by nine points. I don't expect to see a repeat of that performance here. The Sun not surprisingly had their way with the Fever defense as that game wore on. You'd be hard-pressed to find a weaker defensive team in the WNBA than the Fever as they continue what seems to be a never-ending rebuild. Credit them for shooting the lights out on Friday but with arguably their best offensive player, rookie NaLyssa Smith, likely to miss one more game (she's listed as doubtful for Sunday) I expect them to have a tough time keeping pace with a full-strength Sun squad on Sunday. Take Connecticut (8*). |
|||||||
05-22-22 | Mariners +1.5 v. Red Sox | 4-8 | Loss | -167 | 3 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle +1.5 runs over Boston at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the Mariners yesterday but certainly deserved a better fate as they built an early 5-0 lead but couldn't make it stand up in a 6-5 defeat. Yesterday's starter Chris Flexen disappointed once again but I don't expect the same from Logan Gilbert on Sunday. Gilbert has been brilliant for the Mariners so far this season, recording a 2.60 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in eight starts. Better still, he's posted a 1.59 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in five road outings. It's a much different story for Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi. He has seemingly come down with a case of the 'yips', allowing a whopping 14 home runs in 41 2/3 innings of work this season, including five in his most recent start against Houston. While the Mariners have lost three straight games here in Boston they have managed to plate 14 runs and they have to be salivating at the prospect of facing the struggling Eovaldi here, especially considering they reached him for four earned runs over five innings in an 8-2 victory here at Fenway Park last season. Take Seattle +1.5 runs (6*). |
|||||||
05-21-22 | Heat +6.5 v. Celtics | Top | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 34 h 52 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Boston at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. You're not going to win many games when your opponent knocks down 20+ three-pointers and the Heat found that out first hand on Thursday night. I do think we see Miami throw that result away and come back strong as the series shifts to Boston for Game 3 on Saturday, however. The Celtics aren't going to shoot the lights out again from long range here. Note that Miami has held opponents to an average of 37-of-84 shooting including 13 made threes per game on the road this season. The Heat, despite not holding serve in the first two games at home, have done a good job of limiting the Celtics opportunities, allowing 79 and 84 field goal attempts heading into Game 3. In fact, the C's have gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 13 consecutive games - a big reason they've gone just 2-3 ATS as a favorite over that stretch. Miami has now been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in consecutive games to open this series. It hasn't been kept under that number in three straight contests since March 23rd-26th. With that being said, I expect a positive response from the Heat here, noting that they've gone 18-6 ATS in an underdog role this season and check in 16-5 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss as a favorite over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Take Miami (10*). |
|||||||
05-20-22 | Mavs +6.5 v. Warriors | 117-126 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Golden State at 9 pm et on Friday. The Mavericks not surprisingly struggled to get back up for Game 1 of this series after overcoming the top-seeded Suns in a come-from-behind victory last round. We won with the Warriors two nights ago but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Mavs here. Dallas actually did an alright job of slowing the Warriors offense in Game 1, holding it to just 82 field goal attempts. The Warriors quite simply shot the lights out. I'm not counting on a repeat performance here, however, noting that Golden State similarly shot 64% in a 142-112 Game 3 rout of Memphis last round before knocking down just 40% of its shots while eking out a 101-98 victory in Game 4. We know the Mavs are capable of better defensively, noting that they've held 10 of their last 14 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals, going 9-5 ATS while suffering consecutive ATS losses only once over that stretch. Here, we'll also point out that Dallas is 9-1 ATS when coming off a loss by 20+ points this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 13.2 points in that situation. Golden State has now held consecutive opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals - the first time it has accomplished that feat all playoffs. It has also posted back-to-back ATS victories for the first time since starting its opening round series against Denver with three in a row. Take Dallas (8*). |
|||||||
05-20-22 | Fever v. Sun -15 | Top | 85-94 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Connecticut minus the points over Indiana at 7 pm et on Friday. Fresh off a 27-point rout of the Liberty in an early season revenge game last time out, I look for the Sun to continue their ascension on Friday night back home against Indiana. The Fever appear to be the worst defensive team in the WNBA, at least in the early stages of the season. A never-ending rebuild continues and while the Fever offense has shown signs of life, it might be hard-pressed to keep it going on Friday with highly-touted draft pick NaLyssa Smith now sidelined. Note that Indiana has allowed opponents to knock down 28+ field goals in all six games this season, holding only one opponent to fewer than 84 points. Even in its last two games when it limited Atlanta to just 57 and 63 field goal attempts it still got torched for 85 and 101 points. Connecticut is rested and ready having played just three games this season. We've seen the Sun round into form fairly quickly, bouncing back from a season-opening loss in New York to deliver two blowout wins. Connecticut's first three opponents have had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down. The Sun have limited their first three opponents to just 59, 54 and 52 FG attempts. Indiana will be hard-pressed to keep within arm's reach here. Take Connecticut (10*). |
|||||||
05-18-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -4.5 | 87-112 | Win | 100 | 32 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Dallas at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Credit the Mavericks for rallying back from a 3-2 series deficit to oust the Suns in seven games, delivering an incredible knockout punch on the road in Game 7 on Sunday. There's no question, Dallas has been at its best when facing adversity in these playoffs (Game 2 without Luka Doncic in round one against Utah and Game 3 after digging an 0-2 hole last round against Phoenix come to mind). Here, I'm not convinced we'll see the Mavs best punch as both teams feel their way around Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. Golden State has the benefit of playing at home, where it has gone 37-10 this season, outscoring opponents by 10.5 points per game, and also checks in well-rested but not likely rusty following just four off days. I like the fact that the Warriors come in seeking revenge for consecutive losses against the Mavs, noting that they've gone 24-12 ATS when playing with 'double-revenge' over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 5.9 points on average along the way. For their part, the Mavs check in just 4-6 ATS when coming off an outright underdog road victory this season, as is the case here, and 1-3 ATS when following up consecutive wins by 15+ points. Take Golden State (10*). |
|||||||
05-17-22 | Celtics v. Heat -1.5 | 107-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami minus the points over Boston at 8:45 pm et on Tuesday. I think there was a somewhat common line of thinking that whichever team prevailed in the Bucks vs. Celtics series would likely go on to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals. I don't feel the Heat are deserving of that disrespect - after all, we're talking about the number-one seed in the East and a team that has for the most part cruised through the first two rounds of the playoffs. Here, we're able to back Miami at a very short price despite the fact that it is home and rested while the Celtics are just one day removed from Game 7 of a grueling series against the defending champion Bucks. Note that while the Heat have shown they can prevail in any type of environment, winning high-scoring and low-scoring affairs, the Celtics are actually 0-2 SU and ATS when being held to 101 points or less in these playoffs. Miami has given up fewer than 100 points in seven of 11 games in these playoffs. While I'm not saying this one will turn into a slugfest, I do like the Heat's depth and flexibility regardless the type of contest that plays out on Tuesday. Note that Miami had at least five players score in double-figures in consecutive victories to close out the Sixers last round - a much different story than the Celtics last opponent, the Bucks, who obviously relied heavily on Giannis to do it all. Take Miami (9*). |
|||||||
05-17-22 | Yankees v. Orioles +1.5 | 5-4 | Win | 128 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore +1.5 runs over New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Yankees rolled to another lopsided victory last night - not unexpected as they opened this series against the reeling Orioles. Here, I do like the spot for the O's, however, as they get their third look at Jameson Taillon this season and noting that they've held their own and then some at home this season, going 9-8 while outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.4 runs per game. Interestingly, the Yankees check in just 21-28 when playing on the road after winning four or five of their last six games over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Also note that the O's fall into a situation where we back a team coming off three consecutive games with five or less hits but with a bullpen that has recorded a collective WHIP of less than 1.00 over their last five games. That situation has cashed at an impressive 37-14 clip over the last five seasons and is already 3-0 this year. While tonight's starter for Baltimore, Spenser Watkins, doesn't exactly instill a great deal of confidence, the O's have managed to win two of his three home starts this season with the lone loss coming by a single run. Take Baltimore +1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
05-16-22 | Braves +1.5 v. Brewers | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta +1.5 runs over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Braves let one get away against the Padres yesterday, eventually falling by a 7-3 score in extra innings. Atlanta's last winning series came last weekend against the Brewers and I look for it to get this return match in Milwaukee off to a positive start as well. Note that Atlanta checks in 31-13 when coming off a loss by 4+ runs over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by 2.8 goals on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Brewers are just 29-32, outscored by 0.6 runs on average, when playing at home after winning two of their last three games, which is the case here following a series win in Miami. Additionally, Atlanta has bounced back nicely following gut-wrenching losses, noting that it has allowed just 2.9 runs per game and outscored opponents by an average margin of 1.0 run when playing on the road after a game in which it blew a save over the last three seasons (18-game sample size), which is the situation here. Ian Anderson owns a 2-0 team record in two career outings against the Brewers while Freddy Peralta has recorded an even 2-2 team record in four career starts against Atlanta (both wins came by a single run so 0-4 when factoring in the +1.5 run-line). Take Atlanta +1.5 runs (10*). |
|||||||
05-16-22 | Astros +1.5 v. Red Sox | 3-6 | Loss | -180 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston +1.5 runs over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I'm anticipating a tight contest between the Astros and Red Sox on Monday as they renew acquaintances following last October's playoff series (which went Houston's way in six games). Here, we'll note that the Red Sox are just 8-14 when coming off a game in which they scored two runs or less over the last two seasons, outscored by 0.8 runs on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Astros have actually managed to outscore opponents by an average margin of 0.1 runs when priced as a road underdog between +100 and +150 over the same stretch (24-game sample size). While Boston has turned things around to a certain extent having won three of its last five games, Houston is in another stratosphere right now, having gone 11-2 while outscoring opponents by 2.7 runs per game so far in May. Astros starter Jake Odorizzi brings excellent form into this one having allowed just one earned run on six hits in 17 2/3 innings of work over his last three outings. Red Sox starter Garrett Whitlock got off to a solid start this season but has since faded, allowing five earned runs in just eight innings over his last two outings. Take Houston +1.5 runs (4*). |
|||||||
05-15-22 | Mavs v. Suns -6 | 123-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Dallas at 8 pm et on Sunday. We've seen these two teams trade blowouts over the last two games and I won't be surprised if we see more of the same in Game 7 on Sunday as the Suns return home looking to close out the Mavs. Dallas has reached a high-water mark of 40 made field goals in this series, failing to reach that number in any of the last three contests. In fact, the Suns have held the Mavs to fewer than 80 field goal attempts in three of the six games in this series. Meanwhile, Phoenix is coming off its ugliest shooting performance of the series in Game 6. We expected a response from the Mavs in that game and saw exactly that as they locked down the Suns potent offense. I expect a different story to unfold here, however, noting that the Suns are a terrific 10-2 ATS when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 11.9 points on average in that situation. They're also 24-11 ATS when coming off an outright loss as a favorite in their previous game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.0 points in that spot. Take Phoenix (8*). |
|||||||
05-15-22 | Bucks +5.5 v. Celtics | Top | 81-109 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
My selection is on Milwaukee plus the points over Boston at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Celtics (free play) in Game 6 of this series on Friday night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and grab the points with the Bucks as the series shifts back to Beantown for a seventh-and-deciding game on Sunday afternoon. I really like the job the Bucks have done defensively in this series, even if it hasn't always translated to victories. They've held the Celtics to 87 or fewer field goal attempts in all six games so far. Were it not for they themselves being unable knock down their shots on Friday night, we would probably already be talking about the Bucks moving on to their next opponent. Save for a blowout defeat in Game 2 in Boston, Milwaukee has been able to get loose offensively, getting off 90+ FG attempts in four of six games in this series. And we've already seen the Bucks respond favorably in games they've 'needed' in this series, taking the series-opener by double-digits, grabbing the 2-1 series lead in Game 3 at home and then rallying to steal a pivotal Game 6 back in Boston. Expect the battle-tested Bucks to step up again here, noting that the Celtics are a woeful 6-18 ATS when playing at home off a double-digit win over the last two seasons. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
|||||||
05-13-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -8 | Top | 96-110 | Win | 100 | 33 h 48 m | Show |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Memphis at 10 pm et on Friday. We won with the Grizzlies the last time these two teams met on this floor in Game 4 earlier in the week. We followed that up with an easy winner with the 'over' in Game 5 on Wednesday. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Warriors - who we successfully backed in Game 3 last Saturday - as they look to close out this series back in San Francisco. Credit the Grizzlies for showing up and showing out in what will likely prove to be their home finale two nights ago, without Ja Morant no less. They're still without Ja and much like we saw in Game 4, I believe they'll have a tough time mounting enough offense to keep pace with the Warriors. Golden State checks in 8-1 ATS this season when playing at home seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent, outscoring the opposition by an incredible 19.6 points on average in that spot. The Warriors are also a long-term 23-7 ATS when playing at home after allowing 130 or more points in their previous game, as is the case here. For their part, the Grizzlies - despite the outright upset win on Wednesday - are a woeful 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games when facing elmination in a playoff series. Take Golden State (10*). |
|||||||
05-13-22 | Flames v. Stars +1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas +1.5 goals over Calgary at 9:30 pm et on Friday. We've won with the Flames in each of the last two games. While I'm still confident they'll win this series, I'm not sure it will come easy. Note that the Stars have certainly been a 'tough out' at home this season, going 28-15 while outscoring opponents by 0.4 goals on average. Using a long-term 125-game sample size, Dallas has outscored the opposition by 0.3 goals on average when playing at home seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent, as is the case here. As we've noted previously in this series, the Flames are just 6-20 the last 26 times they've led a playoff series, averaging just 2.2 goals per game and outscored by 0.6 goals on average in that situation. Take Dallas +1.5 goals (3*). |
|||||||
05-13-22 | Fever v. Liberty -6 | 92-86 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York minus the points over Indiana at 8 pm et on Friday. The Liberty opened the season with an impressive win over perennial championship contender Connecticut but couldn't follow it up, falling in a rout against Chicago four nights later. Here, I look for New York to bounce back as it hosts a constantly rebuilding Indiana squad that is in for a letdown off an upset win over Minnesota. I can't help but feel some regression is in order for the Fever after they got off 70+ field goal attempts and knocked down 30, 29 and 31 field goals in their first three games. New York on the other hand has plenty of room for improvement after attempting only 59 and 60 field goals in its first two contests (against two of the league's best teams). Defensively, we know the Liberty are capable after limiting the Sun to just 27-of-64 shooting in their most recent home game. Take New York (6*). |
|||||||
05-12-22 | Wild +1.5 v. Blues | 1-5 | Loss | -255 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota +1.5 goals over St. Louis at 9:30 pm et on Thursday. We can anticipate the Wild bouncing back from consecutive 5-2 losses on Thursday night as they face elimination in St. Louis. Minnesota has gone a perfect 8-0 when coming off a loss against a division opponent in which it allowed 4+ goals over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 1.7 goals on average in that situation. Better still, the Wild are a perfect 9-0 when coming off a home loss by 2+ goals this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.5 goals in that spot. When playing on the road off consecutive losses over the last two seasons, the Wild have posted an impressive 9-2 record, averaging 3.7 goals per game and outscoring opponents by 0.9 goals in that situation. We'll grab the insurance goal here but may not need it. Take Minnesota +1.5 goals (2*). |
|||||||
05-12-22 | Heat v. 76ers -2 | 99-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Miami at 7 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Heat in Game 5 of this series two nights ago - a never-in-doubt 35-point laugher. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way, however, and back the 76ers as they look to force a seventh game in this series. The home side has won and covered in all five games in this series. Here, we'll look for the Sixers to extend that streak noting that they've gone 40-24 ATS when playing at home off an ATS loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 7.9 points in that situation. Better still, they're 22-11 ATS when coming off a game in which they scored 100 points or less over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 8.4 points on average in that spot. Off a 120-point explosion in Game 5, I don't see a lot of upside for the Heat offense here. Note that the Sixers have held them to 84 or fewer field goal attempts in each of the last four games, no small feat after Miami had gotten off 92+ FG attempts in three of its previous four contests prior to that stretch. The Heat quite simply shot the lights out on Tuesday. Philadelphia on the other hand, had an awful shooting night in Miami last time out but on a positive note did manage to get off a series-high 85 FG attempts. Note that the Sixers managed to score 99 and 116 points in winning both previous home games in this series despite attempting just 67 and 68 field goals. If they can find a way to get that pace up a bit again here, I'm confident they can hang a crooked number on the Heat. Take Philadelphia (9*). |
|||||||
05-11-22 | A's +1.5 v. Tigers | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland +1.5 runs over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The A's have taken two of the first three games in this unique five-game series and I look for them to give the slumping Tigers all they can handle again on Wednesday. Note that Oakland is 26-11 when playing on the road against left-handed starting pitching over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.4 runs on average in that spot. They're also 13-3 when playing on the road after being held to four runs or less in four consecutive games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by 2.0 runs on average. While the Oakland offense has been struggling, the Tigers have been even worse in that regard, scoring two runs or less in seven of their last eight games. Take Oakland +1.5 runs (3*). |
|||||||
05-10-22 | Mavs v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 80-110 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
NBA First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points first half over Dallas at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The Mavericks did an excellent job of getting back in this series, securing consecutive wins on their home floor to tie things up at two heading back to Phoenix. Now it's the Suns turn to respond and I expect them to get off to a strong start in Game 5 on Tuesday. Here, we'll note that the Mavs are 3-11 ATS in the first half when playing on the road off consecutive wins this season, outscored by an average margin of 4.9 points in that situation. The Suns meanwhile have gone 10-1 ATS in the first half when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent this season, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by 10.7 points on average in that spot. It's not that Phoenix shot all that poorly in the last two games in Dallas, but it's outside shooting certainly let it down in Sunday's Game 4 as it made good on just nine three-point attempts. I'm convinced we'll see the Suns get off to at least a better start in this one (we won't worry about the Mavs potentially making the appropriate halftime adjustments by sticking with the first half only), noting that they were in a similar situation returning home tied at two games apiece against New Orleans last round and ended up jumping ahead 59-46 at halftime in Game 5. Take Phoenix first half (10*). |
|||||||
05-10-22 | Phillies v. Mariners +1.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle +1.5 runs over Philadelphia at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We missed badly with Seattle last night but did win with the 'over' in its 9-0 drubbing at the hands of the Phillies. I won't hesitate to come back with the Mariners again here, however, this time grabbing the insurance run as well. Note that Philadelphia is still a money-burning 18-28 in its last 46 Interleague games. It also checks in a woeful 7-18 when coming off a game in which it allowed one run or less over the last two seasons, outscored by 2.0 runs on average in that situation. For his part, tonight's starter Aaron Nola has posted a 7-17 team record in his last 24 nighttime outings. Meanwhile, the Mariners are 51-36 when priced between +125 and -125, as is the case here at the time of writing, outscoring opponents by 0.3 runs on average in that spot. They're also a profitable 29-23 after plating four runs or less in three consecutive games over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.2 runs in that situation. Tonight's starter, Robbie Ray has averaged over six innings per start this season and has posted a terrific 1.02 WHIP in three home outings. Take Seattle +1.5 runs (5*). |
|||||||
05-10-22 | 76ers v. Heat -3 | Top | 85-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. After getting crushed by 20 points in Game 3 in Philadelphia, the Heat played much better in Game 4 but simply couldn't withstand a shooting clinic from the 76ers as they knocked down over 54% of their field goal attempts in an eight-point victory. With the scene shifting back to Miami for Game 5 on Tuesday, I look for the Heat to regain their footing. Note that the Sixers actually got off just 67 and 68 field goal attempts in the two games in Philadelphia. They've been held to 84 or fewer FG attempts in all 10 playoff games to date. With so few opportunities and considering the Heat have held opponents to just 37-of-83 shooting here at home this season, I believe the Sixers will be in tough trying to keep within arm's reach in this one. Note that the Heat, while slowed in Philadelphia, have shown they can push the pace, getting off 92+ FG attempts in three of their last seven contests. While the Sixers have knocked down 40+ field goals just once in their last nine games the Heat have accomplished that feat four times in their last seven and 10 of their last 13 contests overall. On the flip side you would have to go back seven games to find the last time Miami allowed an opponent to make good on more than 38 field goals. Finally, we'll note that the Heat are 14-6 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored 110+ points this season, outscoring the opposition by 6.8 points on average. Perhaps better still, Miami has outscored opponents by 11.1 points on average when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent this season (12-game sample size). Take Miami (10*). |
|||||||
05-10-22 | Red Sox +1.5 v. Braves | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston +1.5 runs over Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Tuesday. The Red Sox have been a train-wreck this season, relatively-speaking, but I look for them to give the Braves all they can handle in Atlanta on Tuesday. Note that the Braves are just 4-10 when coming off a win this season, as is the case here, outscored by 0.7 runs on average in that situation. While the Red Sox are mired in a five-game losing streak at the moment, they've still outscored opponents by 2.3 runs on average when coming off three or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons (14-game sample size). Perhaps Atlanta is the right team to turn it around against, or at least from the right division; the Red Sox are 16-4 in their last 20 games against N.L. East opponents, averaging 5.7 runs per game and outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.6 runs in those matchups. The Braves on the other hand are just 15-20 after scoring 8+ runs in their previous game over the last two seasons, outscored by 0.6 runs on average along the way. We'll grab the insurance run with the Red Sox here, largely due to their bullpen, which has already blown five saves this season. Take Boston +1.5 runs (3*). |
|||||||
05-10-22 | Aces v. Mystics +5.5 | Top | 76-89 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
WNBA Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Las Vegas at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are off to perfect 2-0 starts to the campaign. For the Aces, perhaps the hot start was to be expected as they've been one of the league's best teams for a number of years. While the Mystics are just a couple of years removed from a WNBA championship, they've been up and down as a franchise. I am high on Washington this season, however, already cashing one ticket with it in its season-opening rout of Indiana. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Mystics as I feel they have plenty of upside in this spot and will be out to make a statement that Sunday's double-digit win in Minnesota was no fluke. Washington has managed to go 2-0, scoring 84 and 78 points despite being held to fewer than 70 field goal attempts in each of its first two contests. That's not to mention the fact that the Mystics made good on just 31 and 29 of those attempts. Here, I expect them to be able to find a few more scoring opportunities against an Aces squad that has yielded its first two opponents 73 and 76 FG attempts. The Aces have won and covered as a favorite in consecutive games but now fall in a tough situation as they're a long-term 18-36 ATS when coming off consecutive wins over division opponents, as is the case here, and worse still, 1-10 ATS when following consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 2.0 points in that latter situation. The Aces did take all three meetings against the Mystics last season but two of those wins came by three points or less. Finally, I'll point out that while Elena Delle Donne sat out Sunday's big win in Minnesota, she is expected back on the floor for Washington on Tuesday. Take Washington (10*). |
|||||||
05-09-22 | Grizzlies +10.5 v. Warriors | Top | 98-101 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Golden State at 10 pm et on Monday. Everyone has all but written off the Grizzlies following Saturday's 144-114 drubbing - a game in which they also lost Ja Morant to an injury (he's doubtful to play on Monday). While I have no false illusions when it comes to the Grizz potentially winning this series, I do believe they can bounce back with a much stronger performance on Monday and ultimately take this one down to the wire. Even if Morant can't go, Memphis will have Dillon Brooks back on the floor following his one-game suspension. It's worth noting that the Grizzlies know how to play without Ja as he has missed plenty of time due to injury over the last couple of seasons. I like the fact that Memphis continues to find its opportunities in this series, getting off 95, 91 and 92 field goal attempts in the first three games. Golden State quite simply shot the lights out on Saturday, knocking down a ridiculous 63.1% of its field goal attempts. It happens when we're talking about a team led by the likes of Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. Memphis has proven to be a terrific 'bounce-back' team all season though, going a perfect 10-0 ATS when coming off a double-digit road loss, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 15.9 points on average in that situation. When seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season, the Grizzlies have gone 21-10 ATS, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 4.8 points. Take Memphis (10*). |
|||||||
05-09-22 | Royals +1.5 v. Orioles | 1-6 | Loss | -180 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City +1.5 runs over Baltimore at 12:05 pm et on Monday. Interestingly, each of the Orioles last four wins have come by at least two runs. I don't believe that's a sustainable trend, especially here at home where runs have come at a premium due to the new field dimensions at Camden Yards. Here, we'll note that the Royals are 19-14 when playing on the road after losing two of their last three games over the last two seasons, as is the case here. The O's meanwhile are just 3-11 in their last 14 games when priced as a favorite of -110 or higher, which is also the situation here, outscored by 2.0 runs on average in that spot. Additionally, Baltimore is a woeful 18-53 in afternoon games over the same stretch, allowing 6.0 runs per game while being outscored by an average margin of 1.6 runs. Take Kansas City +1.5 runs (3*). |
|||||||
05-08-22 | Suns -1.5 v. Mavs | 101-111 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix over Dallas at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. The Mavericks showed up defensively in Game 3 of this series and delivered a much-needed 103-94 win. Phoenix only managed to get off 76 field goal attempts in that contest yet was still reasonably competitive. Compare that with Dallas, which got off 90 FG attempts but still only made good on 40 of those, noting the Mavs have now been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in six straight games. In stark contrast, prior to Friday's game the Suns had made good on 42+ field goals in 12 consecutive games. Here, I look for the Suns to make the necessary adjustments and take a strange-hold on this series, noting that they're an incredible 16-3 when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 11.4 points on average in that situation. Take Phoenix (7*). |
|||||||
05-07-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -6.5 | 112-142 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Memphis at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. The Grizzlies have taken the cash in each of the first two games in this series and we won with them in Game 2. I think they'll be hard-pressed to cover in a third straight contest on Saturday, however, as the scene shifts to San Francisco for Game 3. You can be sure Ja Morant's 'you can't guard me' proclamation hasn't sat well with Steph Curry and the rest of the Warriors. Golden State will be out to make an example of Morant and the Grizz on Saturday and I'm confident we'll see them do just that. While the Warriors will be without Gary Payton II, the Grizzlies will miss Dillon Brooks as he serves his one-game suspension for the hard foul on Payton in Game 2. Brooks' absence is arguably more critical. Here, we'll note that Golden State has gone 16-6 ATS when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by a convincing 11.2 points on average in that spot. This series will likely still feature plenty of twists and turns but I believe Saturday's outcome will be fairly straight-forward. Take Golden State (6*). |
|||||||
05-07-22 | Brewers v. Braves +1.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta +1.5 runs over Milwaukee at 7:20 pm et on Saturday. Runs will likely come at a premium in this matchup as the Brewers send Corbin Burnes to the hill against Max Fried of the Braves. With that in mind, I'm comfortable laying the juice to grab the insurance run with Atlanta at home. Milwaukee comes in having won four games in a row - with all four of those victories coming by multiple runs. That matches a season-long streak for 2+ run wins. I expect it to end here, noting that Atlanta checks in 32-13 when coming off four or five losses in its last six games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 2.7 runs on average in that situation. Take Atlanta +1.5 runs (4*). |
|||||||
05-06-22 | Fever v. Mystics -6 | 70-84 | Win | 100 | 22 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington minus the points over Indiana at 7 pm et on Friday. While it was 'only the preseason' I saw enough out of the Mystics to believe they're back on the right track after missing the playoffs during an injury-marred 2021 campaign. The Indiana Fever remain in a perennial rebuild and while it does seem that they're finally pointed in the right direction (after making a whopping seven draft picks) it's going to take some time. They were wildly inconsistent in a pair of preseason contests and I expect more of the same out of the gate during the regular season. Unfortunately the schedule makers didn't do them any favors in their opener as they have to hit the road to face a hungry and experienced Mystics squad. This from Ariel Atkins on the first day of Mystics training camp back on April 18th, "We didn’t make playoffs last year. Ain’t nothing else we need to be talking about but work." “We didn’t make playoffs last year,” she repeated minutes later. "That’s not okay. It’s unacceptable.” Look for the Mystics to make a statement in their home opener on Friday. Take Washington (6*). |
|||||||
05-05-22 | Rays v. Mariners +1.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle +1.5 runs over Tampa Bay at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. While the Rays enter this series 'fat and happy' following a three-game sweep of the A's in Oakland, culminating with yesterday's 3-0 shutout victory, the Mariners enter hungry off a three-game sweep at the hands of the Astros in Houston. Nothing went Seattle's way in that series in Houston. Needless to say it will be happy to be back home on Thursday. As if the Mariners needed any more motivation, they'll also be looking to avenge a series loss suffered on the road against the Rays in April. They actually outscored Tampa Bay 11-9 over the course of that three-game set. There's not a lot to choose as far as the starting pitching matchup goes tonight with Shane McClanahan taking the ball for the Rays against Robbie Ray of the Mariners. I do think that Ray was brought in precisely for situations like this where Seattle needs a pick-me-up and it's worth noting that Ray has guided the M's to victory in each of his previous two home starts this season recording a 3.00 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 12 innings of work. With the the bullpens virtually a wash as well, we'll grab the insurance run with the Mariners in what projects to be a tightly-contested affair. Take Seattle +1.5 runs (3*). |
|||||||
05-03-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies +2 | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Golden State at 9:30 pm et on Tuesday. Most already have the Warriors advancing past the Grizzlies in this series, especially after Memphis came so close but seemed so far in Sunday's Game 1 loss. There were positives for the Grizzlies to take away from that setback, however. They got off 95 field goal attempts. That's notable considering the Warriors allowed more than 87 field goal attempts just once in their opening round series against Denver. They also shot better from beyond the arc and got to the free throw line four more times than Golden State. We know there's still some inconsistency in the Warriors game - perhaps a product of so many key pieces being in and out of the lineup over the course of the season. Memphis knows it can hang with Golden State and a one-point loss in the series opener won't do anything to change that. The Grizzlies have still won three of five meetings between these two teams this season. They know, however, that Game 2 is essentially a 'must-win' as they're unlikely to take three of four games in San Francisco, where the Warriors are 34-10 SU this season. Take Memphis (5*). |
|||||||
05-03-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | 86-109 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Milwaukee at 7 pm et on Tuesday. The Celtics didn't bring their 'A' game in the opener of this series or anything close to it. They managed to knock down just 28 field goals yet still lost by 'only' 12 points. Perhaps that poor offensive performance was to be expected as they were coming off a five-day layoff thanks to their opening round sweep of the Nets. Here, we'll confidently back the C's noting they've gone a perfect 9-0 ATS after being held to 95 points or less in their previous game this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.6 points in that spot. The Bucks on the other hand are a woeful 18-30 ATS when coming off four wins in their last five games over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Milwaukee has now reeled off four consecutive wins both SU and ATS but streaks like that are uncommon in the postseason and I look for it to grind to a halt here as the Celtics win this one going away to get back in the series. Take Boston (9*). |
|||||||
04-28-22 | Guardians +1.5 v. Angels | 1-4 | Loss | -140 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Thursday. This series hasn't gone well for the Guardians. In fact, the last week hasn't gone well for the Guardians as they've gone winless through six games in New York and Anaheim. I will back them here, however, as they check in 22-12 when coming off a loss by 4+ runs going back to last season, outscoring opponents by 1.6 runs on average in that spot. Also note that the Angels are 14-22 when coming off a victory by 4+ runs over the same stretch, outscored by 1.0 run on average in that situation. Cleveland averages 6.5 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season, which is what they'll be up against on Thursday as Reid Detmers gets the call for the Angels. Detmers faced Cleveland once last season and didn't make it through the fourth inning, allowing three earned runs on seven hits and three walks in an eventual 5-1 loss. Meanwhile, Guardians starter Cal Quantrill is off to a solid start this season having posted a 3.94 ERA and 1.19 WHIP through 16 innings of work. He faced the Angels once last season and that start was a good one as he tossed seven shutout innings in a 3-0 victory. While I gave the Guardians bullpen the edge entering this series, I'm willing to admit the two relief corps' are virtually a 'wash' at this point. I'm comfortable grabbing the insurance run with the Guardians at a reasonable price here. Take Cleveland +1.5 runs (5*). |
|||||||
04-27-22 | Guardians +1.5 v. Angels | 5-9 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Guardians are reeling right now, losers of five straight games including the first two in this series. They'll have arguably their best starter in the early going this season on the hill tonight though in Zach Plesac. He has posted a 1.53 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in three starts this season, working at least into the sixth inning in all three of those outings. His opposing starter will be Shohei Ohtani and as usual he appears to be overvalued here, noting that the Angels have actually lost two of his first three starts this season. Note that Ohtani faced the Guardians just once last season, his only previous start against them, with the Halos losing that game by a 3-2 score here in Anaheim. While the Angels bullpen has held up well lately, I'm still not buying its long-term sustainability, noting that it still owns a 5.27 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with four saves converted but also three blown here at home this season. For its part, the Guardians 'pen has yet to record a save on the road while blowing two opportunities, however that relief corps has recorded a collective 2.73 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over its last seven games and I am willing to buy in as far as it keeping this game tight at the very least on Wednesday. Here, we'll note that the Guardians are 21-8 after being held to one run or less in their previous game going back to last season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.3 runs. The Angels on the other hand are 3-14 when playing at home after allowing three runs or less in consecutive games over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 2.5 runs on average in that spot. Take Cleveland +1.5 runs (8*). |
|||||||
04-27-22 | Inter Milan v. Bologna +1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 0 m | Show |
Soccer Game of the Week. My selection is on Bologna +1.5 goals over Inter Milan at 2:15 pm et on Wednesday. Inter Milan enters Wednesday's match in Bologna just two points back of AC Milan, which sits tops in the Serie A table. There's undoubtedly some pressure on Inter to collect all three points in this match and leapfrog Milan. It won't be easy, however. Bologna has gone undefeated across its last four matches and should be well aware of the path to success in this particular contest, having seen seven of its last eight matches stay 'under' 2.5 goals. Bologna also knows that it can find success against Inter. The most recent meeting came last September, with Inter winning by a lopsided 6-1 score. Prior to that, however, four of the last five matches between these two squads were decided by a single goal. Note that despite being decided underdogs, Bologna has failed to find the back of the net just once in the last five meetings. I'm anticipating a competitive affair on Wednesday. Take Bologna +1.5 goals (10*). |
|||||||
04-26-22 | Marlins v. Nationals +1.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -147 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington +1.5 runs over Miami at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Marlins are coming off an impressive series win in Atlanta over the weekend. They probably would have liked to have gotten right back out there yesterday but instead had a day off before opening this series in Washington. The Nationals, meanwhile, likely welcomed the off day following a series sweep at the hands of the Giants, at home no less. The Nats have now lost five games in a row but I look for them to punch back on Tuesday. Josiah Gray gets the start for Washington. He's arguably been their best starter so far this season, particularly over his last two outings as he allowed just four hits and one earned run in 10 1/3 innings in victories over the Braves and D'Backs. He turned in two solid outings against the Marlins last season, allowing four earned runs in 12 innings with the Nats' going 2-0 when factoring in the +1.5 run-line. Sandy Alcantara has also pitched well for Miami. However, he's been much better in his two home outings than he was in his lone trip to the hill on the road. The Marlins have won just twice in his eight career starts against Washington. We'll use the +1.5 run-line to our advantage here, noting that Miami is averaging only 3.5 runs per game on the road this season. If there's one area where the Nats' have an advantage and should help them keep this one tight at the very least, it's the bullpen. Washington's 'pen has posted a 2.67 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over its last seven games. The Nats' relief corps has recorded two saves with none blown at home this season. Take Washington +1.5 runs (6*). |
|||||||
04-26-22 | Hawks v. Heat -7 | Top | 94-97 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
NBA First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Atlanta at 7 pm et on Tuesday. |
|||||||
04-22-22 | Guardians +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland +1.5 runs over New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I don't think there's much at all separating these two clubs right now yet we're being offered to back the Guardians with an insurance run at a near pk'em price on Friday. We'll gladly take advantage. Cleveland comes in off an impressive three-game series sweep of the White Sox. The Guardians have hit well so far this season, averaging 5.7 runs per game while batting a collective .278. That's certainly more than can be said of the Yankees, who check in hitting a miserable .220 and averaging just 3.0 runs per contest. There's little to choose between tonight's two starting pitchers. Eli Morgan will make his first start of the season for the Guardians. He should bring some confidence having pitched here at Yankee Stadium last season, allowing only one earned run over six innings in an 11-1 victory. Jameson Taillon's lone outing against Cleveland last season didn't go so well as he was lit up for four earned runs in just four innings in a 7-3 loss. Both bullpens have been solid in the early going this season. While the Yanks 'pen has posted a terrific 2.97 ERA over its last seven games, we have started to see some cracks as evidenced by its 1.62 WHIP over that stretch. By contrast, the Guardians relief corps has posted a sparkling 0.93 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Cleveland +1.5 runs (10*). |
|||||||
04-20-22 | Yankees v. Tigers +1.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit +1.5 runs over New York at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Yankees took the opener of this series last night by a 4-2 score. They actually haven't won consecutive games since opening the season with back-to-back wins over the Red Sox. I expect them to have their hands full with the Tigers here. While Luis Severino certainly has the better numbers of tonight's two starters this season but of course we're talking about a small sample size of just two starts. I don't believe there's all that much separating the two pitchers. Tigers starter Eduardo Rodriguez has faced the Yankees plenty over the course of his career (remember he came over from the Red Sox). He posted a 4-1 team record in five starts against New York last season, allowing just eight earned runs in 23 innings. I think he's catching the Yankees bats at the right time, noting that they've scored more than four runs just twice in 11 games this season. They check in hitting a collective .187 and averaging 2.7 runs per game against left-handed starters this season. Both bullpens have been terrific in the early going this season with the Yanks relief corps having posted a 1.80 ERA and 1.18 WHIP and Detroit's 'pen recording a 2.85 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Expect a tightly-contested affair on Wednesday. Take Detroit +1.5 runs (4*). |
|||||||
04-19-22 | Pelicans +9.5 v. Suns | 125-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Phoenix at 10 pm et on Tuesday. Few are giving the Pelicans any chance of winning this series. While I tend to agree, I do expect them to give the Suns all they can handle in Game 2 on Tuesday night. Everything went right for Phoenix in Game 1. It shot the lights out (just shy of 54% from the field). Interestingly, however, New Orleans actually got plenty of looks, hoisting up 95 field goal attempts. It got to the free throw line five more times than Phoenix. In other words, there's reason for optimism entering Game 2. The Pelicans quite simply didn't make their shots in Game 1. Keep in mind, this is a team that had made good on 40+ field goals in 23 of their last 24 games entering this series. Also note that the Pelicans have limited three of their last seven opponents to 78 or fewer FG attempts, including the Suns in Game 1 (they attempted 78 field goals). Here, we'll note that New Orleans is 36-24 when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 2.5 points on average in that situation. The Suns have outscored opponents by only 4.1 points on average when coming off a double-digit home win over the last two seasons (40-game sample size), as is the case here. While the Pelicans haven't been a great road team this season going 18-25 SU (one of those wins came here in Phoenix), they've only been outscored by an average margin of 3.3 points. I'm expecting a competitive affair on Tuesday. Take New Orleans (9*). |
|||||||
04-18-22 | Nuggets +7 v. Warriors | 106-126 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over Golden State at 10 pm et on Monday. The Warriors rode the emotional wave of Steph Curry's return to an easy 16-point win in Saturday's series-opener. Golden State was ahead by 20 points entering the fourth quarter in that contest as the Nuggets simply didn't bring enough intensity to stay competitive. I do expect a strong response from Denver on Monday, noting that it has already won twice in San Francisco this season. Here, we'll note that the Nuggets check in 17-7 when playing on the road after losing three of their last four games ATS over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 8.5 points on average in that situation. Better still, they're 14-4 ATS when on the road seeking to avenge consecutive losses against an opponent over the last three seasons, which is also the situation here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.0 point in that spot. Interestingly, the Warriors have only gotten off 81, 81 and 82 field goal attempts over their last three games. In fact, they've been held to 84 or fewer FG attempts in seven of their last eight games overall. Denver on the other hand, has hoisted up 93+ FG attempts in three of its last four games. That while holding three of its last four opponents to fewer than 90 attempts from the field. I'm expecting a more competitive affair than we saw on Saturday as the Nuggets look to even up the series before heading back to Denver. Take Denver (6*). |
|||||||
04-18-22 | Jazz v. Mavs +5.5 | Top | 104-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Western Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Utah at 8:30 pm et on Monday. The Luka-less Mavericks battled hard but ultimately fell by six points in the opener of this series on Saturday. While most have written the Mavs off as long as Luka is unable to return (it doesn't look like he'll play on Monday), I'm confident they can get back at the Jazz in what is essentially a 'must-win' game on Monday. For the third straight game, we saw Utah held to 37 or fewer made field goals on Saturday. As I noted in my analysis of my 'under' play in that game, the Mavs certainly lose a ton offensively with Luka Doncic sidelined, but that's not the case at the defensive end of the floor. Dallas can be an elite defensive team at times and we've certainly seen that lately as it has held three of its last four opponents to 36 or fewer made field goals. Also note that four of the Mavs last seven opponents have only managed to get off 83 or fewer field goal attempts. I certainly don't expect anything to come easy for the Jazz offensively on Monday. You would have to go back five games to find the last time Utah attempted more than 88 field goals. Here, we'll note that the Mavs are 16-3 ATS when coming off a game in which they scored 100 points or less this season, outscoring opponents by 0.4 points on average in that spot. The Jazz are a woeful 10-21 ATS after winning five or six of their last seven games this season, as is the case here. They've been anything but reliable away from home, going 18-24 ATS including 4-12 ATS over their last 16 contests in enemy territory. Take Dallas (10*). |
|||||||
04-17-22 | Angels v. Rangers +1.5 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -150 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
A.L. West Run-Line Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 2:35 pm et on Sunday. The Rangers opened this series with a big win on Thursday but have proceeded to drop the last two games with their pitching failing them. Here, I look for Texas to bounce back, noting that the Angels have gone 12-20 when coming off a win by 4+ runs going back to last season, outscored by 1.3 runs on average along the way. Meanwhile, Texas has gone 15-8 when playing at home off a loss by 4+ runs over the same stretch, outscoring opponents by 0.2 runs on average. There's little to separate the two starters today with Jose Suarez taking the ball for the Angels against Rangers veteran Martin Perez. The same goes for the two bullpens as both have struggled in the early going this season. It's been a number of years since the Angels last reeled off three straight wins over the Rangers by 2+ runs. Look for Texas to bounce back here. Take Texas +1.5 runs (10*). |
|||||||
04-16-22 | Rays +1.5 v. White Sox | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay +1.5 runs over Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Rays on the run-line last night but they still dropped their third game in a row. I look for them to give the White Sox all they can handle on Saturday afternoon as they look to finally end their skid. Note that the Rays are 18-6 when coming off four or five losses in their last six games going back to last season, outscoring opponents by 1.6 runs on average in that situation. They're also a profitable 30-22 as a road underdog over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.5 runs. Both pitching staffs are relatively even heading into this contest - starters and bullpen - and I'll gladly grab the insurance run with the Rays here. Take Tampa Bay +1.5 runs (4*). |
|||||||
04-15-22 | Angels v. Rangers +1.5 | 9-6 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Friday. It's been the 'same old Angels' for the most part so far this season with Mike Trout brilliant as usual but the rest of the team lagging considerably behind. We won with the Rangers on the run-line last night and I won't hesitate to go right back to the well with the same play here. The starting pitching matchup is virtually a wash in this one but I'll give the hitting edge to the Rangers here at Globe Life Field, not to mention the slight bullpen advantage with the Halos' relief corps having posted a collective 6.30 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 30 innings of work so far this season. As I noted yesterday, the Angels have struggled as a small favorite in recent years, now 28-40 when priced at -150 or lower over the last 2+ seasons, outscored by 0.6 runs on average along the way. Take Texas +1.5 runs (3*). |
|||||||
04-15-22 | Rays +1.5 v. White Sox | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay +1.5 runs over Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Friday. In a game where I expect runs to come at a premium, I'll back the Rays with the insurance run as they look to bounce back from an awful home series against the Rays. The White Sox sputtered in the finale of their three-game set against the Mariners, dropping a 5-1 decision yesterday afternoon. It's been a case of feast-or-famine for the White Sox offense in the early going this season and I expect them to have their hands full with the Rays pitching staff led by starter Drew Rasmussen on Friday. Rasmussen didn't have his best stuff in his season debut but he still managed to give up only two earned runs over four innings in a victory over the Orioles. He's catching the White Sox offense at the right time in unfriendly early season hitting conditions at Guaranteed Rate Field on Friday. Note that the Rays bullpen, while overworked in the early going this season, has held up well, posting a 3.76 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 40 2/3 innings. Take Tampa Bay +1.5 runs (3*). |
|||||||
04-15-22 | Inter Milan v. Spezia Calcio +1.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
Serie A Game of the Month. My selection is on Spezia +1.5 goals over Inter Milan at 1 pm et on Friday. Inter Milan rolls into Friday's 'away' match against Spezia off consecutive clean sheet victories. In fact, Inter is undefeated in its last eight matches overall. With that being said, I see this as a tricky contest, noting that both teams have been involved in their share of low-scoring affairs lately. Inter has seen each of its last five contests stay 'under' 2.5 goals while the same can be said for Spezia in five of its last six matches. With this match being played at Stadio Alberto Picco in La Spezia we'll note that the home side has recorded a goal differential of just -1 goal in the role of host this season. Contrast that with its -21 goal differential in enemy territory. Inter Milan, meanwhile, is tops in the Serie A table when factoring in only 'home' affairs but drops to fifth when only considering 'away' matches. This has been a relatively tight series lately with Inter winning two of the last three matches between the two but with just a +3 goal differential over that stretch. Take Spezia +1.5 goals (10*). |
|||||||
04-14-22 | Angels v. Rangers +1.5 | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. I think there's a bit of a 'Shohei-effect' at play here as the Angels open a four-game series in Texas on Thursday. Ohtani pitched well but lasted only 4 2/3 innings in his season debut. Interestingly, we've seen the Angels outscored by an average of 0.8 runs in his 12 starts against A.L. West opponents going back to last season. While Los Angeles enters this game off consecutive wins, it has topped out at six runs through six games this season, going 2-4 when factoring in the -1.5 run-line. Here, the Angels will face the Rangers as a road favorite, noting that they've gone just 28-39 when checking in as a favorite of -150 or less over the last 2+ seasons, outscored by an average margin of 0.5 runs in that situation. Bettors are down on the Rangers after they dropped a series in Toronto and then proceeded to get swept in a brief two-game set at home against the Rockies. I look for a strong performance from starter Dane Dunning here, however. He struggled in his season debut but those are precisely the type of starters (with a proven track record) that we like to back in their second outing. While the Rangers bullpen hasn't been great, it has posted a 4.12 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, which is considerably better than that of the Angels relief corps, which checks in sporting a 6.31 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Take Texas +1.5 runs (5*). |
|||||||
04-13-22 | Cubs v. Pirates +1.5 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 2 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh +1.5 runs over Chicago at 12:35 pm et on Wednesday. I don't think there's as much separating these two teams as their early records would indicate. Chicago has won three of its first four games, including last night's 2-1 decision, while Pittsburgh has dropped three of its first four contests. Today's pitching matchup couldn't be any more of a 'wash' with Kyle Hendricks going for the Cubs and Zach Thompson finally making his first start for the Pirates (he was in line to start on Monday before the rain-out in St. Louis). It's been pretty much 'even Steven' as far as the bullpens go so far this season as well with the Cubs posting a 4.59 ERA and 1.02 WHIP and the Buccos 'pen checking in with a 4.58 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. We've seen eight matchups between these two teams going back to the start of last September. The Cubs won just two of those games by more than a single run. Going back further, the Pirates are 21-8 in the last 29 meetings when factoring in the +1.5 run-line. Take Pittsburgh +1.5 runs (4*). |
|||||||
04-12-22 | Clippers +3 v. Wolves | Top | 104-109 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 26 m | Show |
Play-In Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Minnesota at 9:30 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this one sets up for the Clippers as they look to book a trip to Memphis for a first round playoff series against the Grizzlies. They'll need to get past the upstart T'Wolves first. Minnesota enters this showdown playing little to no defense at all, having allowed its last seven opponents to make good on 49, 48, 46, 48, 56, 43 and 44 field goals. It has incredibly held only two opponents to fewer than 102 points going all the way back to January 18th. Contrast that with the Clippers, who enter this game having held their last two opponents to 98 points or less. While the T'Wolves do boast an exceptional offense, the Clippers have been every bit as good lately. Los Angeles checks in having knocked down 41, 45, 56, 45, 33, 42 and 54 field goals over its last seven games. It shot 54-of-97 from the field in Sunday's regular season finale against Oklahoma City despite sitting Paul George, Reggie Jackson and others. What I like about the Clippers, in addition to the fact that they're well-coached (Tyronn Lue is one of the most underrated coaches in the NBA today in my opinion), is that they play some defense. They've limited three of their last four opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Note that the Clips took three of four regular season meetings between these two teams, including both here in Minnesota. The lone loss came in early January when they were in a bit of a swoon and you could understand them letting down their guard having won the previous three meetings at the time - all by double-digit margins. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
|||||||
04-12-22 | Marlins +1.5 v. Angels | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami +1.5 runs over Los Angeles at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. With the starting pitching matchup virtually a wash and the Marlins looking to salvage one game from this quick two-game set in Anaheim, I'll back Miami with an insurance run on Tuesday. Note that the Marlins check in 45-38 after losing two of their last three games over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.1 runs on average in that spot. Better still, they're 20-11 after scoring three runs or less in three consecutive games going back to the start of last season, outscoring the opposition by 1.1 runs on average along the way. On the flip side, the Angels are just 11-20 when coming off a win by 4+ runs going back to last season, as is the case here off last night's 6-2 victory, outscored by 1.4 runs on average in that spot. While it's still very early, the Marlins bullpen has been solid, posting a 3.00 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 15 innings while the Los Angeles 'pen has recorded a 6.97 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 20 2/3 innings. Take Miami +1.5 runs (6*). |
|||||||
04-12-22 | Flyers +1.5 v. Capitals | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Puck-Line Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia +1.5 goals over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. We cashed a big ticket fading the Flyers in their most recent game as they dropped a 5-3 decision at home against the Ducks on Saturday (in a game they led 2-0). Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back Philadelphia (on the puck-line) as it travels to Washington to face the division rival Capitals. The Flyers haven't quit on the season. They've actually won their last two road games, including an impressive victory over the Rangers in New York. There are certain games left on their schedule that I don't think they'll get up for, and this is one of them. Washington enters this game off three straight wins. The Caps are just 1-5 when playing at home off consecutive wins by 2+ goals this season, as is the case here, outscored by 1.5 goals on average in that situation. They've also gone 3-8 when at home after scoring 3+ goals in three consecutive games this season, which is also the situation here, outscored by 0.6 goals on average in that spot. Philadelphia meanwhile has gone 13-8 when playing on the road after losing five or six of its last seven games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 0.1 goals on average in that situation. It's certainly worth noting that the Caps are actually a losing team on home ice this season, having gone 18-20 with an even 3.1-3.1 scoring average. As I mentioned, I expect the Flyers to get up for this one, noting that this has been a tight series all season with Philadelphia securing a pair of one-goal victories and Washington winning the other contest by a 5-3 score (on the road). Factoring in the +1.5 puck-line, the Flyers are 4-1 in the last five meetings in the series. Take Philadelphia +1.5 goals (10*). |
|||||||
04-10-22 | Kings v. Suns -14 | 116-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Sacramento at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. I like the way the Suns have been forcing the issue down the stretch, regardless who is in or out of the lineup, getting off 92+ field goal attempts in each of their last three games and scoring 121, 109 and 111 points in the process, winning two of those three games. Here, they should find continued success against a Kings squad that waved the white flag a long time ago and checks in having allowed 41+ made field goals in 11 consecutive games, while making good on fewer than 40 field goals themselves in six of their last 10 contests. Sacramento has had a tough enough time just getting shots off lately, hoisting up just 81, 81, 76 and 86 field goal attempts over its last four contests. Phoenix meanwhile has knocked down 50, 42 and 46 field goals over its last three games and has made good on 42, 44 and 46 field goals in its previous three meetings with Sacramento this season. Defensively, we've seen the Suns clamp down lately, yielding opponents' fewer than 90 FG attempts in seven of their last eight contests. They're just one game removed from limiting the Clippers to 33-of-75 shooting. Take Phoenix (6*). |
|||||||
04-08-22 | Red Sox +1.5 v. Yankees | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston +1.5 runs over New York at 1:05 pm et on Friday. I'll take a shot with the Red Sox plus the insurance run as they get their season started a day later than expected at Yankee Stadium on Friday. Here, we'll note that the Red Sox check in 50-31 in their last 81 road games against right-handed starters, averaging 5.1 runs per game and outscoring opponents by 0.6 runs on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Yankees went just 5-8 with ace Gerrit Cole starting as a favorite priced between -150 and -200 going back to last season, as is the case here, outscored by 0.3 runs on average in that spot. Worse still, the Yanks have won just three times in Cole's last 11 daytime outings, outscored by an average margin of 3.0 runs along the way. Take Boston +1.5 runs (6*). |
|||||||
04-06-22 | Mainz v. FC Augsburg +0.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on FC Augsburg +0.5 goals over Mainz at 12:30 pm et on Wednesday. While Mainz sits four places and nine points ahead of Augsburg in the Bundesliga table, I don't believe there's all that much separating these two clubs. Much of Mainz' success has been built on its play at home - in fact, factoring in only home matches it would sit in third place in the Bundesliga. However, considering only away matches, Mainz would rank 16th, just two places above the league basement. Note that Mainz has managed only 12 goals in 13 away matches this season, while conceding 23. Contrast that with Augsburg's home tally of 20 goals for and 19 against in the same number of contests. This particular series hasn't been all that favorable for Mainz either as it has conceded at least a goal against Augsburg in 10 consecutive meetings. Augsburg enters this match having lost just once in its last four matches, that coming by a 3-2 score away against Stuttgart. Mainz, meanwhile, will be playing its second away match in the last three days after a hard-fought draw against Monchengladbach on Sunday. Take Augsburg +0.5 goals (8*). |
|||||||
04-05-22 | Atletico Madrid +1.5 v. Manchester City | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atletico Madrid +1.5 goals over Manchester City at 3 pm et on Tuesday. Most are expecting Manchester City to cruise in the home leg of its clash with Atletico Madrid on Tuesday. I'm not so easily convinced. Atletico Madrid enters this match playing its best football, having won six consecutive matches (undefeated in its last eight). In fact, it has scored first in each of its last eight contests. It's not as if goals have been all that plentiful in Manchester City matches lately with five of its last seven contests staying 'under' 2.5 total goals. That sort of low-scoring affair would of course be favorable to us with an insurance goal in our back pocket. While Atletico Madrid will certainly have its hands full with a potent Man City attack, it has held up well in 'away' matches in Champions League play, allowing just four goals in as many contests. Take Atletico Madrid +1.5 goals (8*). |
|||||||
04-04-22 | North Carolina v. Kansas -4 | Top | 69-72 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas minus the points over North Carolina at 9:20 pm et on Monday. We've been on the sidelines for Kansas' tournament run but I'll step in confidently and back the Jayhawks here as they clash with North Carolina in the National Title Game on Monday night. North Carolina has afforded its opponents far too many scoring opportunities for my liking. Even in its thrilling win over Duke on Saturday, it yielded a whopping 72 field goal attempts. Over their last five contests, the Tar Heels have allowed 73, 81 (aided by overtime against Baylor), 62, 60 and 72 FG attempts. While they've done a nice job defensively as a whole, they've still allowed 25, 26, 28, 28, 18 and 30 made field goals over their last six contests. The outlier over that stretch was a game against an overmatched St. Peter's squad in the Elite Eight. In stark contrast, Kansas has allowed its last five opponents to knock down just 19, 21, 23, 19 and 22 field goals. Again, some of that has to do with the opposition simply not making their shots. However, Kansas has been doing it all season, allowing just 25 made field goals including only six from beyond the arc per game on average away from home. What I really like about the Jayhawks is the way they've tightened the screws defensively lately, giving up fewer than 60 FG attempt in four of their last five and six of their last eight contests overall. On the flip side, the Jayhawks have made good on 33, 30, 22, 34, 27, 22. 29 and 29 field goals over their last eight games - you get the picture, they've been ultra-consistent. The two outliers (22 made field goals) came in relatively low-scoring affairs against Texas Tech and Providence, two excellent teams in their own right. They still won both of those games by five or more points. North Carolina has actually knocked down 27 or fewer field goals in five of its last seven games. It has had plenty of success getting to the free throw line but faces a Kansas squad that affords its opponents just 17 free throw attempts per game this season. While we can't project the Jayhawks to go off from beyond the arc the way they did against Villanova in the Final Four, we also can't expect North Carolina to get off 64 FG attempts or get to the line 24 times the way it did against Duke on Saturday. Take Kansas (10*). |
|||||||
04-03-22 | Wolves v. Rockets +12.5 | 139-132 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston plus the points over Minnesota at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. This is simply too many points for the T'Wolves to be laying given how poorly they've been playing defensively. Minnesota checks in having yielded 49, 48 and 46 made field goals over its last three games but is coming off a 106-100 win as a three-point underdog in Denver two nights ago. It's not as if the Wolves have been unstoppable offensively lately either, knocking down 43 or fewer field goals in five of their last six contests. The Rockets, meanwhile, have gone winless through the first three games on their current four-game homestand. With that being said, those three previous losses have come by just 3, 3 and 5 points. Despite playing at a fast pace, six of Houston's last seven opponents have made good on 44 or fewer field goals. We've seen the Rockets start pushing the pace again over their last couple of games, getting off 94 and 97 field goal attempts against the Kings. They should be afforded a similar number of opportunities here with Minnesota having yielded opponents 90+ FG attempts in five of its last nine contests. The T'Wolves 'only' won by 18 points in the most recent meeting between these two teams despite shooting a ridiculous 55-of-108 from the field. Take Houston (8*). |
|||||||
04-03-22 | Islanders v. Devils +1.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Jersey +1.5 goals over New York at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Islanders are coming off a stunning 3-0 win over the Rangers at MSG on Friday - their third consecutive win. Here, I look for them to stumble, however, as they head to Newark to face the Devils on Sunday afternoon. New Jersey is coming off a wild 7-6 loss at home against Florida yesterday. The Devils have been getting lit up defensively, allowing 15 goals over their last two contests, but there's reason to believe they can hold the Isles in check here. Note that New York has averaged 2.1 goals per game and has been outscored by 0.2 goals on average when playing on the road after scoring 3+ goals in three straight games over the last two seasons (18-game sample size), as is the case here. The Isles are also a woeful 4-13 when playing on the road after allowing two goals or less in consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscored by a whopping average margin of 1.4 goals in that situation. While the Isles have taken two of three previous meetings between these two teams this season, the Devils have actually outscored them 8-7 overall. Take New Jersey +1.5 goals (6*). |
|||||||
04-02-22 | Stars v. Sharks +1.5 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Jose +1.5 goals over Dallas at 10:35 pm et on Saturday. We've successfully faded the Stars on the puck-line in each of their first two games on their current four-game road trip and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Saturday. Keep in mind, the Stars average just 2.5 goals per game on the road this season, where they've been outscored by an average margin of 0.5 goals. You would have to go back five games to find the last time they posted a win by 2+ goals and they've accomplished that feat just once in their last 11 games overall. Note that Dallas checks in a woeful 1-9 when playing on the road after allowing two goals or less in consecutive games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, allowing 4.3 goals per game while being outscored by 2.4 goals on average in that situation. The Sharks, meanwhile, are 16-10 this season when coming off consecutive games in which they allowed 3+ goals this season, which is also the case here, outscoring opponents by 0.5 goals on average in that spot. Better still, San Jose is 10-3 when coming off consecutive losses by 2+ goals over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 0.7 goals in that situation. Take San Jose +1.5 goals (6*). |
|||||||
04-02-22 | Hornets +5.5 v. 76ers | 114-144 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Philadelphia at 12:40 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the Hornets in this early matchup on Saturday. Charlotte has quietly won eight of its last 10 games overall. You would have to go all the way back to February 5th to find the last time the Hornets were held to fewer than 100 points. They've made good on 40+ field goals in 10 straight games. Simply put, they're rolling right now. Meanwhile, the 76ers continue to scuffle along. They dropped an ugly 102-94 decision in Detroit two nights ago. In stark contrast to the Hornets, the Sixers have been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in seven of their last 12 contests. Meanwhile, their defense has sagged, yielding 45, 44 and 41 made field goals in their last three games. While ordinarily I would assume that Philadelphia could frustrate Charlotte by slowing the pace here, I'm not sure that will be the case noting that the Hornets have actually limited four of their last five opponents to 86 or fewer FG attempts. Take Charlotte (8*). |
|||||||
03-31-22 | Stars v. Ducks +1.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Anaheim +1.5 goals over Dallas at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Ducks on the puck-line in this same matchup two nights ago. While they did suffer their 10th consecutive loss in that game, they were certainly close to breaking their losing streak, leading the game 2-1 entering the third period before eventually falling by a 3-2 score. Despite the win, the Stars are still just 16-18 on the road this season, outscored by an average margin of 0.6 goals. The Ducks, meanwhile, are 16-19 on home ice, but have actually outscored their opponents by 0.1 goals on average. Also note that Dallas has been outscored by 0.5 goals on average after winning four or five of their last six games this season (28-game sample size), as is the case here. Take Anaheim +1.5 goals (6*). |
|||||||
03-29-22 | Stars v. Ducks +1.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Anaheim +1.5 goals over Dallas at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Ducks are reeling right now, losers of nine games in a row. They've been idle since suffering a 4-1 defeat in San Jose on Saturday and I look for them to finally come up with a bounce-back performance on Tuesday at home against Dallas. The Stars are off a loss of their own, falling by an identical 4-1 score on home ice against Vancouver on Saturday. Note that Dallas has averaged a woeful 1.6 goals per game when playing on the road after winning four or five of its last six games this season, outscored by 1.2 goals on average in that situation. The Ducks on the other hand average 3.4 goals per game and have been outscored by just 0.1 goals on average when playing at home after allowing 4+ goals in consecutive games this season. Better still, they've averaged 3.7 goals per game while outscoring opponents by 0.4 goals on average after giving up 4+ goals in three consecutive games this season. Take Anaheim +1.5 goals (6*). |
|||||||
03-28-22 | Bulls v. Knicks +5 | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Bulls have had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone making them lately, attempting just 78 and 75 field goals over their last two games. It's not as if those two contests came against elite defensive teams either. The first was against a 'defense-optional' Pelicans squad and the next came against a reeling Cavaliers defense. Here, Chicago will face rival New York, noting that you would have to go back to March 13th against Brooklyn to find the last time the Knicks allowed more than 42 made field goals in a game. The Knicks have actually won three games in a row SU but did lose ATS yesterday in Detroit, which actually works in our favor here with the line creeping up in favor of the Bulls. Note that there's been little to choose between these two teams this season with all three of the previous matchups decided by six points or less. I'll grab the points here. Take New York (8*). |
|||||||
03-28-22 | Hurricanes v. Capitals +1.5 | 6-1 | Loss | -200 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington +1.5 goals over Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Monday. I think the revenge angle might be a little too played up in this one, noting that the Hurricanes have dropped each of their three previous matchups against the Capitals this season. Keep in mind, Carolina is just 2-7 when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which it allowed 4+ goals this season, as is the case here, outscored by 0.8 goals on average in that situation. The Caps meanwhile, check in 28-10 after giving up 3+ goals in three straight games over the last three seasons, averaging 3.7 goals and outscoring opponents by 1.0 goal on average in that spot. While Washington remains just 16-18 on home ice this season, it has actually outscored the opposition by 0.2 goals on average. While we're being asked to pay considerable juice to grab the insurance goal in this spot, I believe the price is warranted. Take Washington +1.5 goals (5*). |
|||||||
03-26-22 | Arkansas +4 v. Duke | Top | 69-78 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Game of the Year. My selection is on Arkansas plus the points over Duke at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. We won with Arkansas in its stunning upset win over number-one seed Gonzaga two nights ago and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The Razorbacks actually made some poor choices shooting the basketball early in the shot clock down the stretch in that win over Gonzaga and ultimately made good on just 29-of-72 field goal attempts but their relentless defense frustrated the Zags all night and I expect more of the same here (but with better shot selection offensively). Duke has been red hot shooting the ball but what happens if those shots suddenly stop falling? Interestingly, it has only gotten off 58, 56 and 54 field goal attempts in its first three tournament games (it averages 60 FG attempts per contest away from home this season). I'm concerned with the Blue Devils inability to control their opponents' tempo, having yielded 64+ FG attempts in each of their last seven games. Even a lukewarm Texas Tech offense was able to make good on 31 field goals on Thursday, even though it wasn't enough to topple the Blue Devils. Going back to March 5th against North Carolina, Duke has now allowed 33, 27, 31, 32, 24, 27 and 31 made field goals over its last seven contests. Meanwhile, only one of the Hogs last seven opponents has managed to knock down more than 26 field goals. Take Arkansas (10*). |
|||||||
03-25-22 | Warriors +3 v. Hawks | 110-121 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Friday. I think the case can be made that the wrong team is being favored in this matchup. Yes, the Warriors have been unsteady, particularly since losing Steph Curry to injury. However, they did rebound with a big win in Miami two nights ago (with Klay Thompson resting) and I look for them to build on that performance here. Note that the Warriors continue to play exceptional defense. They've held seven of their last eight opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Only one of their last four opponents has managed to get off more than 85 field goal attempts. That's a stark contrast to tonight's opponent, Atlanta, which has allowed 12 straight opponents to knock down 40+ field goals. Incredibly, you would have to go all the way back to January 28th against Boston to find the last time it held an opponent to fewer than 100 points. The Warriors have accomplished that feat four times since then. The Hawks haven't exactly been lighting it up offensively either. Yes, they went off thanks to Trae Young's heroics at Madison Square Garden earlier this week. However, they've been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in four of their last six games. Take Golden State (8*). |
|||||||
03-24-22 | Bulls v. Pelicans +1.5 | Top | 109-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Week. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. The Pelicans are a team we want to back right now, checking in 4-1 ATS over their last five games and well-positioned to bounce back following a loss in Charlotte three nights ago. New Orleans has been incredibly consistent offensively, making good on 40+ field goals in 12 consecutive games entering Thursday's contest. That's not to mention the fact that it has held seven straight opponents to 90 or fewer field goal attempts and three of those seven opponents to less than 80. That spells trouble for a Bulls squad that has seen its season go off the rails, losing nine of its last 12 games. Chicago has knocked down fewer than 40 field goals in four of its last six games. Meanwhile, it has given up 42, 47, 40 and 50 made field goals over its last four contests. Look for a revenge-minded Pelicans squad (the Bulls took the only previous meeting this season by 16 points in Chicago back in October) to prevail on Thursday. Take New Orleans (10*). |