Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-21-21 | Broncos v. Browns OVER 41 | Top | 14-17 | Loss | -106 | 27 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER A multitude of injuries on the Cleveland side have seen this spread drop like a rock and with it, the total has come down as well. But be mindful of the fact that Denver just put up over 400 yards last week in a loss to the Raiders. They only scored 24 points because they had four turnovers. The Browns defense isn’t very good; it has given up 84 points the last two games. So we expect the Broncos to score a decent amount of points in this Thursday night road tilt. But their own defense has some issues that may not be properly addressed in a short week. Since a 3-0 start that saw them hold the Giants, Jets and Jaguars to a total of 26 points, Denver’s defense has given up an average of 28 points in three straight losses. The Browns will start Case Keenum at QB. Most will tell you how this is a downgrade from Baker Mayfield and they aren’t wrong. Keenum is not helped by the fact that over half of the Browns’ offensive starters are injured. However, the Broncos’ defense has a ton of injuries as well. Three linebackers are out. The Over is 6-2 the last eight times the Browns have been off a loss. Too many things can happen in an NFL game - like a touchdown by the defense or special teams - for us not to choose Over when the total is this low. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-21-21 | Florida Atlantic v. Charlotte +7 | Top | 38-9 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CHARLOTTE Charlotte, despite having a better record than Florida Atlantic, is a touchdown underdog at home on Thursday. The 49ers’ only losses were by 9 pts to Georgia State and by 10 points to Illinois. Both of those losses occurred out on the road. They’ve won all three home games, including an upset of Duke in the opener. Two weeks ago saw them go to Florida International and win 45-33. Florida Atlantic is the road team in this one and they are 0-3 in that role this year. All three losses have been by 17 points or more. Now the teams the Owls have traveled to face - Florida, Air Force and UAB - are all pretty good. But they only scored 35 points in those games. Charlotte has covered the last four times these teams have played. We won’t go so far as to say they’ll win Thursday night, but we like them plus the points. Play on CHARLOTTE AAA |
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10-20-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Appalachian State OVER 61.5 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State meet Wednesday night in a matchup that is very likely to determine who represents the East Division in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game. Coastal Carolina won the division last year and had a perfect 11-0 SU record going into the bowls. They are perfect again (so far) this year with a 6-0 SU record. Appalachian State has already lost two games in 2021, but only one in conference play and that was last week to Louisiana, which came by a rather shocking score of 41-13. The Mountaineers lost at Coastal Carolina 34-23 last year, a result that decided the SBC East Division. Coastal Carolina is even stronger this year as they have scored at least 49 points five times and averaged 54.7 points their last three games. So considering how many points App State allowed last week to Louisiana, this is an automatic ‘Over’ for us. One would expect the home team is going to score a lot more than it did last week. The Mountaineers averaged 35.2 points/game the first five weeks of the season. They are easily the best team Coastal Carolina has played this season. Both teams will have no problem getting to 30 points. The Over is 6-0 the past six times Appalachian State has been off an ATS defeat. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-18-21 | Bills v. Titans OVER 53 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Though they lost Week 1 to the Steelers, this start to the season that the Bills have put together really couldn’t be much more dominant. They’ve scored the most points in the league and also given up the fewest. On Monday they will face the Titans, a team that beat them 42-16 in a rare Tuesday game last season, and we believe that the Buffalo offense will keep humming right along. We warned you about this Tennessee defense back in Week 1 when we played the Cardinals. The Titans gave up 38 points in that game. They have given up at least 27 in three of their five games, one of those times coming against the Jets who are last in the league in scoring. The Bills come in averaging 34.4 points/game and should hit that average tonight. As for the Bills having allowed the fewest points, it obviously helps that they have faced Miami and Houston. The other three games have seen them give up 20 or more points every time. Tennessee remains a strong team offensively with RB Derrick Henry, who has 640 yards and four straight 100-plus yard games. The Over is 25-9-1 in the Titans’ last 35 games overall and 7-1 the last eight times they have been an underdog. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-17-21 | Seahawks +5.5 v. Steelers | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 52 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEA So no Russell Wilson for Seattle. But are people really willing to lay this many points with a Pittsburgh team everyone was writing off two weeks ago? Before beating Denver 27-19 last week, the Steelers had lost three in a row and not scored 17 points in any of the games. They aren’t a good team by any means. In the win over Denver, JuJu Smith-Schuster was lost to a season-ending injury. So that makes the offense even worse. The Seahawks’ offense obviously takes a massive hit without Wilson. But remember that Geno Smith, the first QB other than Wilson to start for Seattle since 2011, did drive the field for a TD when he had to come in last Thursday. Getting the mini-bye is a big assist to Smith, who is 5-0 ATS his L5 games as a starter. The Seahawks are 16-8 ATS under Pete Carroll as an underdog of four or more points. The last five times Pittsburgh has been favored, they have lost the game. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns OVER 48 | Top | 37-14 | Win | 100 | 31 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Well, there’s a lot going on with this matchup isn’t there?. Arizona, the only undefeated team left in the NFL, will be without its head coach and QB coach because of COVID-19. This is on top of several on the field absences: Center Rodney Hudson, TE Maxx Williams and LB Chandler Jones. But Cleveland is not unscathed coming into Week 6 either. They will be missing RB Nick Chubb. There were 16 others on the injury report, several of whom will not play. But these teams are still more than capable of sending this one Over the total. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is having an MVP caliber season thus far as he has completed 70% of his passes in four straight games. The offense is fourth in points per game at 31.4. The Browns were just involved in a 47-42 game last week. They lost despite gaining 531 yards. While Chubb is out, Baker Mayfield can still hand the ball to Kareem Hunt, who once led the NFL in rushing.. Arizona being banged up in the secondary should open things up for the Browns in the passing game. When these defense have turned in quality performances this year, it has been because they’ve faced subpar quarterbacks. We believe the total has come down too much for this matchup. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-17-21 | Chargers +2.5 v. Ravens | Top | 6-34 | Loss | -102 | 45 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAC The Chargers look like a good team this year. They are 4-1 straight up and ATS. They are 8-1 ATS L9 games, going back to 2020. They lead the AFC West after coming back to beat Cleveland 47-42 last week. They had a season-high 500+ yards in the game. The Chargers’ only loss was to Dallas on a last second field goal. QB Herbert seems like the real deal. He is fourth in passing yards and third in touchdowns. Now LA faces Baltimore, who is on a short week. The Ravens needed a wild comeback of their own to beat the Colts 31-25 on Monday night. It was their fourth win in a row, but third by six points or less. The other two were by a combined three points. They just as easily could be 1-4 straight up and we’d be having a much different conversation here. The Chargers are 49-22-5 ATS as road underdogs, 5-2 with Herbert as the quarterback. We will go with the better team getting points. Play on LA CHARGERS AAA |
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10-17-21 | Bengals -180 v. Lions | Top | 34-11 | Win | 100 | 29 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 7* on CINCY MONEY LINE Poor Detroit can’t seem to buy a break. Twice in the past three weeks they have lost on a last second field goal. Last week they battled back from a 16-6 fourth quarter deficit and took a 17-16 lead with 37 seconds left. But they let Minnesota drive down to kick a game winning field goal on the final play. It was a very similar story and the same 19-17 final three weeks ago vs. Baltimore when Matt Prater got them with a record-setting 66 yard field goal at the gun. We get why people may think the Lions could break through this week when they host Cincinnati. But how can they overcome such continual heartbreak? Cincinnati is 3-2 after losing in overtime to Green Bay last week. Four of their five games have been decided by a field goal. So we won’t lay the points, but we do like the Bengals to win. The Lions haven’t scored more than 17 points in any of the last four weeks and Jared Goff is averaging only 6.6 yards per pass attempt. The team has covered back to back games just twice in its last six tries. Cincy has wins over Minnesota and Pittsburgh and could have beaten Green Bay. The money line means we don’t have to worry about them winning by more than three. Play CINCINNATI on the money line AAA |
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10-17-21 | Dolphins v. Jaguars +3 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 42 h 56 m | Show |
This is an 8* on JACKSONVILLE After going 0-3 with Jacoby Brissett as the starting quarterback, Miami will welcome Tua Tagovailoa back on Sunday. At least it looks that way. Coach Brian Flores said “if all goes well” in Friday’s practice, Tua will get the start. This next game comes in London against the 0-5 Jaguars. The matchup coupled with a potential Tua return has to have Dolphins fans thinking this is one where they end their losing streak. But they’ve been as bad as anybody this year, getting outscored by 76 points the last four weeks. The ‘Fins do have a worse scoring differential than the Jaguars this year. Speaking of losing streaks, the Jags have dropped 20 in a row going back to Week 1 of last year. They too look at this matchup as the one where they can end the streak. They are desperate and looking at the next couple weeks, we don’t see a game as “winnable” as this one for the Jags. Maybe leaving the country is what they need! Urban Meyer is certainly looking for a “vacation” after his rough last couple of weeks. Though they did lose on the scoreboard 37-19, Jacksonville ended up outgaining Tennessee last week and put up a season-high 454 total yards. Miami should not be favored against anyone, not even the Jags. Play on JACKSONVILLE AAA |
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10-16-21 | Louisiana Tech v. UTEP +7 | Top | 3-19 | Win | 100 | 56 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTEP UTEP is 5-1, which is their best record in ages. The Miners lone loss came at Boise State. Since then they have beaten New Mexico, Old Dominion and Southern Miss while covering the spread in every game. They are home underdogs this week to Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs had last week off. A quick note about their season - all five games have been decided by seven points or less. So we wouldn’t want to be caught laying so many points with them on the road. The wins came against SE Louisiana and North Texas. The defense is giving up almost 475 yards/game. UTEP’s defense barely allows more than 300. It’s that defense that will give Dana Dimel’s team the chance to pull the upset this week. At the very least, UTEP stays within the number. They were 3-0 ATS as a double digit dog vs. Conference USA opponents last year. The spread isn’t quite that high here. But this game means a lot to UTEP as they’ve lost eight straight times to La Tech despite outgaining them in half those games. La Tech is only 1-4 ATS the previous five times they have been favored. Play on UTEP AAA |
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10-16-21 | Alabama v. Mississippi State OVER 57.5 | Top | 49-9 | Win | 100 | 54 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 9* on OVER Alabama, coming off its first loss since November 2019, heads to Starkville this week to face Mississippi State. The Crimson Tide were stunned last Saturday night down in College Station, losing to Texas A&M as 15.5 point favorites. They gave up 41 points, too many to overcome, especially after falling into a two touchdown hole at halftime. But the Tide did outgain the Aggies 522-379. They put up 38 points and have now scored 31 or more every game in 2021. They should not have a problem moving the ball or scoring on Miss State, who was off last week after they went on the road and defeated Texas A&M two weekends ago. The Bulldogs’ defense has had only one good game so far. They’ve been pretty consistent on offense, averaging 27.8 points/game. Miss State has not scored many points on the Bama defense through the years, but Mike Leach is now the head coach. Leach’s offense is averaging 429 yards/game, almost all of it coming through the air. Will Rogers is the only SEC quarterback to throw for 400 yards and two or more TDs in the same game and he’s done it twice. Off a loss, Bama will come out firing but MSU can score too. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-16-21 | Kentucky +23 v. Georgia | Top | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 51 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on KENTUCKY It’s another big time showdown in the SEC this week as #11 Kentucky takes on #1 Georgia. Both schools are 6-0 and the last unbeatens in the conference. But the oddsmakers clearly see this as a mismatch with UK being installed as a pretty massive underdog. The spread here is even larger than when Georgia hosted Arkansas two weeks ago and won 37-0. The Razorbacks were ranked #8 going into that game. But we expect the Wildcats to do better than the Hogs did in Athens. This is Georgia’s third straight game against a Top 20 opponent. That can wear on even the best teams. What’s impressive is that the Bulldogs beat both Arkansas and Auburn with their backup QB (Stetson Bennett) under center. Georgia’s defense is obviously great. But so is Kentucky’s, which allows just 17.5 points and 305 yards per contest. In what figures to be a relatively low-scoring affair, taking the big number just seems like a no-brainer. The Wildcats are probably the best offensive team that Georgia has faced. So we expect them to be the first team to score more than 14 points on the ‘Dawgs this season. That’ll be enough to cover. Play on KENTUCKY AAA |
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10-16-21 | Ball State v. Eastern Michigan +1.5 | Top | 38-31 | Loss | -112 | 49 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 9* on EASTERN MICHIGAN Ball State’s season did not get off to a good start as they were 1-3 straight up and 0-4 against the spread through four games. But the Cardinals are coming off two straight upsets, one over Army and the other over Western Michigan. Both wins were very impressive as they won by 12 and 25 and were a double digit dog for each game. This week they are a slight favorite at Eastern Michigan. Ball State has not been favored since Week 1 when they played Western Illinois. Eastern Michigan is 4-2 with its only losses coming on the road. One was at Wisconsin and the other was at Northern Illinois and featured a long delay. We like the home team in this Saturday MAC matchup. Eastern Michigan won a low-scoring game last week, 13-12 against Miami, and should keep the BSU offense in check. There have been three games this year where the Cardinals did not score more than 13 points. Last week saw them get to 45, but it definitely helped to get four turnovers from Western Michigan. One was a fumble that BSU returned for a touchdown. Two others set the offense up on a short field. Eastern Michigan rarely has a bad game in conference play and we like them to win Saturday. Play on EASTERN MICHIGAN AAA |
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10-16-21 | Michigan State -4.5 v. Indiana | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 47 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MICHIGAN STATE We will continue to take Michigan State until the oddsmakers finally “catch up” and realize just how good Mel Tucker’s team really is. Sparty is now 6-0 following the 31-13 beatdown they handed Rutgers last week. We laid the points in that one and will do the same again here against Indiana. Last week, we said “that Rutgers just doesn’t have the offensive capability to stay within a short number, even at home.” That obviously turned out to be the case. Tucker’s team has been way more explosive than anticipated, averaging 36.7 points/game. There’s been only one game where they failed to score more than 30. They have the nation’s leading rusher in Kenneth Walker III. Indiana is a disappointing 2-3 with one of the wins coming by only two points over Western Kentucky. The Hoosiers are 0-2 in the Big 10 having been outscored 58-6 by Iowa and Penn State. They also lost by 14 at home to Cincinnati. Those were all ranked teams. There’s no shame in losing to a Top 25 team, but the problem here for IU is that Sparty comes in ranked #10. QB Michael Penix Jr may also be out for the Hoosiers. Michigan State has covered six in a row as a road favorite. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
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10-15-21 | San Diego State v. San Jose State UNDER 41.5 | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 34 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER It’s a low total Friday night in San Jose. But when you factor in that the Spartans have scored 17 or less points in four of their last five games, all of a sudden the number doesn’t look that low. San Diego State is giving up just 16.6 points/game on the year. The Aztecs rank among the top 20 nationally in scoring defense. So that’s one side of the equation. The other is how many will SDSU score? We don’t think it will be a lot. San Jose State can play some defense too, evident by the fact they are giving up just 23.8 points/game. SJSU’s defensive coordinator is Rocky Long. Long used to be the head coach at San Diego State. Both teams are unsettled at quarterback, which is something that is worth noting. The San Diego State offense has yet to have a 200 yard passing day this season. Nor has San Jose State in its last three games. The Spartans also won’t be able to run the ball very effectively in this contest as the Aztecs are permitting only 50 rush yards/game. The Under is 5-0 in San Diego State’s previous five Friday night games. Should be a low-scoring affair on the West Coast. Play on UNDER AAA |
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10-15-21 | Clemson v. Syracuse +13.5 | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 31 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SYRACUSE Clemson laying two scores on the road? No thanks. Since winning the National Championship in Jan of ‘19, the Tigers are just 5-13 against the spread. They have failed to cover every game going back to last season’s playoff loss to Ohio State. Their three wins this year came against South Carolina State (FCS), Georgia Tech (14-8 as 27.5 point favorites) and Boston College (19-13 as 14.5 point favorites). Other than the game vs. South Carolina State, the Clemson offense has scored just 50 regulation points all season. Syracuse has already pulled one big upset here at the Carrier Dome this season. They handed Liberty their only loss back on 9/24 in what was also a Friday night game. They almost pulled another upset last week, but eventually fell in overtime to unbeaten Wake Forest. Two of the Orange’s three defeats have been by three points and none have been by greater than 10 points. Go with the underdog in this ACC matchup. Play on SYRACUSE AAA |
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10-14-21 | Bucs -6.5 v. Eagles | Top | 28-22 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TB Tampa Bay comes in at 4-1 SU, but just 2-3 against the spread. Philadelphia is 2-3 both SU and ATS. The Buccaneers are clearly the better team in this matchup as they are averaging 33.4 points/game while only giving up an average of 24.4. The Eagles give up a similar number of points/game (24.8) but their problem is they score far fewer (23.0). We just don’t see the Eagles having enough firepower to stay within a touchdown against a team like Tampa. The Eagles were down 15-3 to Carolina in the second half last week before a late rally earned them the upset win. They didn’t go ahead until less than three minutes were left in the game. The Bucs pretty much led start to finish against the Dolphins last week on their way to an eventual 45-17 win where they had no problem covering the double digit spread. We’d say the Bucs have faced two bad teams thus far - Miami and Atlanta. They won both games by 23 or more points. The Eagles are a bad team. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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10-14-21 | Georgia Southern v. South Alabama -149 | Top | 14-41 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 8* on S ALABAMA ML Georgia Southern seemed a bit lucky to earn the ATS win last week at Troy. Not only were they down 24-3 early in the second half, but the Eagles found themselves outgained 409-301 for the game. It was their fourth loss in five weeks and now they head to South Alabama for a second straight road game. The Eagles are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS the prior seven meetings vs. the Jaguars. But the last two years the games have been close, with one going to double overtime. That 2OT game took place the last time the Eagles visited Mobile, which was two years ago. South Alabama comes into tonight sporting a better record than Ga Southern. The Jaguars are 3-2, although we should point out they’ve lost back to back games. Both were two point losses, however. The Jags' last four games have all been decided by seven points or less. But they are 4-1 SU and ATS the last five times they’ve been a home favorite of three points or less. Georgia Southern is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS the last five times they have been a road underdog of three points or less. Rather than lay the points in this Thursday night Sun Belt matchup, we will simply play the favorite on the money line. We fully expect South Alabama to win this game. Play on SOUTH ALABAMA AAA |
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10-12-21 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette OVER 57 | Top | 13-41 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Over the next two weeks, Appalachian State will face the other two top Sun Belt teams. Next week they’ve got undefeated Coastal Carolina at home. But tonight the Mountaineers must travel to face Louisiana. Both teams are 4-1 SU on the season with a loss to a Power 5 school. App State lost by two at Miami while Louisiana got beat by Texas 38-18. The last three ASU games have all gone Over with them averaging 40 points and 537 yards per contest. Louisiana is 4-1 Under on the year, but has averaged 38 points in two home games. Defensively, the Ragin Cajuns do struggle to stop the run. They are allowing 171 yards/game on the ground. That’s a problem going against ASU, a team that averages almost 200 yards rushing/game. The road team is probably going to put a lot of points on the board here. We know that Louisiana has gone over 28 points in just one game this season, but if they were to hit that number tonight, the Over would be a virtual lock. We think it’s very possible as the Over is 4-0 the previous four times ULL has been a home underdog. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-11-21 | Colts +7.5 v. Ravens | Top | 25-31 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on IND Home teams are 4-0 ATS so far on Monday Night Football. But this is kind of a big number that the Ravens are laying this week. The Colts being 1-3 shouldn’t be that surprising. They’ve been the underdog in all four games. Baltimore has been an underdog twice, so they should be celebrating a 3-1 record to this point. But two of their wins have come by a total of three points. That means they could easily be 1-3, just like the Colts, coming into tonight. Last week was Baltimore’s best performance of the year but it came against a Denver team that was down to its backup QB. Indianapolis also beat a backup QB last week for its first win. Carson Wentz gets a lot of criticism, but hasn’t really played all that badly. He’s thrown five touchdowns and only one interception. The Ravens are 0-2 ATS when favored this year and those two games saw them lose to the Raiders and barely defeat the winless Lions. It seems like they may be a little preoccupied with setting a new NFL record for most consecutive games with 100 or more yards rushing. They can make it 44 straight tonight, which would be the new record. But they haven’t been that effective in running the ball the past two games. Maybe a stubbornness to run keeps this game close? Indy is 10-2 ATS the past 12 meetings with the Ravens and 6-1 here in Baltimore. This is the most points they’ve gotten in any game all year. Play on INDIANAPOLIS AAA |
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10-10-21 | Bills v. Chiefs -2.5 | Top | 38-20 | Loss | -120 | 35 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KC The sky was falling in Kansas City last week. The Chiefs were 1-2 with a defense that seemingly couldn’t stop anybody. That defense remains a question mark, but the offense scored a touchdown on all but one possession last week and the Chiefs beat the Eagles 42-30. Patrick Mahomes threw five touchdown passes. The team has scored 33 points in three of its four games. It’s a big test this week at home vs. Buffalo in the Sunday Night game. But keep two things in mind. One is that the Chiefs were 2-0 vs. the Bills last year. The second win came in the AFC Championship Game. The Bills, who are obviously thinking revenge, have looked as good as any team in the league the last three weeks. But the second thing to keep in mind is just how rare it is to get Mahomes as this short of a favorite. He is 9-1-1 ATS in his career when not favored by more than a field goal. Depending where the line closes, this could be the first time at home in his career that he’s not favored by at least three points. As impressive as the Bills have looked in those last three games, it’s been all bad teams they’ve played. We like the Chiefs. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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10-10-21 | Giants +7 v. Cowboys | Top | 20-44 | Loss | -107 | 31 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 9* on NYG Dallas is the only 4-0 ATS team. But we know all about how the Giants do when priced as road underdogs. They are 18-4 against the spread in the role since 2018. QB Jones is 10-2 ATS as a road dog, even though he’s won just three of those games straight up. This just has the feel of a close NFC East game. The Cowboys did cover as short favorites in each of the last two games. But they are still only 3-6 ATS as favorites since the start of last season, including 2-5 at home. Each of the Giants' previous three games have been decided by six points or fewer. Their last two losses were by one and four points. We were impressed by Jones last week. He had his first 400 yard day as a pro and that was against a good Saints defense. In two road games, the Giants’ offense has averaged 28 points. That should be enough to at least cover this week. The G-men’s reputation as a road underdog speaks for itself. Play on NY GIANTS AAA |
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10-10-21 | Eagles v. Panthers OVER 45.5 | Top | 21-18 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER The Eagles’ defense has been terrible the past two weeks. Some of that has to do with losing defensive end Brandon Graham to a season ending ACL injury. Some of it has to do with facing the Cowboys and Chiefs. Still, there’s no excuse for giving up 41+ points in back to back games. Philadelphia is 31st in the league right now at stopping the run, so even without Christian McCaffery they can move the ball. The 3-1 Panthers have averaged 26 points/game the last three weeks and should have no problem achieving that average again. But their defense was exposed a bit last week as they too got a taste of the Cowboys. Carolina allowed 36 points against Dallas, which was more than they allowed the first three weeks when they faced the Jets, Saints and Texans. We think the Eagles are going to be able to do something closer to what the Cowboys did than the other three teams. Jalen Hurts is coming off a career day where he threw for 387 yards. Twice the Eagles have hit 30 points this year and only once have they been held under 21. The Over is 33-16 in Philadelphia’s past 49 road games and is 21-9 L30 when they are a road dog. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-10-21 | Jets v. Falcons -2.5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 19 h 0 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ATLANTA They gave the game away last week, but we cannot see Atlanta losing again. Not to a Jets team that scored more points last week than they did in the first three games combined. Maybe heading across the Atlantic Ocean is what the Falcons need right now. They are 1-3 and really in need of a win. Two weeks ago, we said the Falcons would win and they did - beating the Giants 17-14. The Jets beat Tennessee in overtime last week, but it can’t be forgotten how poorly they looked in the first three games. Atlanta should have made it two wins in a row last week, but blew a late lead to Washington at home. They allowed the game-winning touchdown in the final minute of regulation. The Falcons should get to five wins this year. This is one of the games their fanbase had to have circled as a win. With Calvin Ridley not making the trip, expect to see a healthy dose of Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson. We trust Matt Ryan more than we do Jets rookie Zach Wilson. This is not a true road game, but the Jets are 2-8 ATS L10 games away from home. Favorites are 17-11 ATS in these London games. The Falcons need this one badly. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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10-09-21 | New Mexico +19.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NEW MEXICO After starting 2-0, New Mexico has lost three in a row. They were blown out in two of the three losses, once by Texas A&M and then last Saturday by Air Force. The Lobos are just one of three 0-5 ATS teams in the country, the others being Clemson and Missouri. They are getting a lot of points this week at San Diego State, who is ranked for the first time in two years. It’s also just the second time in the past 40 years that the Aztecs have gotten off to a 4-0 start. They are ranked because of that 4-0 start, but good luck convincing us that this is one of the 25 best teams in the country. Triple overtime was needed to get by Utah three weeks ago. That was a game where SDSU got outgained 327-248. Their passing game has been pretty much non-existent. New Mexico’s defensive coordinator Rocky Long knows SDSU well. He was their head coach up until 2020. We don’t think the underdog is going to win Saturday night, but they will cover the spread for the first time in 2021. Play on NEW MEXICO AAA |
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10-09-21 | Michigan -3.5 v. Nebraska | Top | 32-29 | Loss | -104 | 53 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MICHIGAN Michigan is 5-0 and playing good fundamentally sound football. They were last week’s top pick when they went to Wisconsin and laid it on the Badgers 38-17. Can you believe they were underdogs in that one? The Wolverines have yet to surrender more than 17 points in any game and have turned the ball over just one time. This week they are at Nebraska, who has covered the number five straight weeks and is off a 56-7 win. Our view is that this is a great time to sell high on the Cornhuskers. None of the teams they have beaten - Fordham, Buffalo or Northwestern - are any good. Neither is Illinois, the first team they lost to this year. We faded the ‘Huskers there in what ended up being a 30-22 loss as 6.5-point road favorites. They did come close at Oklahoma and Michigan State, but ultimately failed. This line should be closer to a touchdown. Be aware that Nebraska almost always loses the close ones as they are 5-15 straight up in one score games under Scott Frost. We definitely see Michigan winning this one by more than a field goal. In its three losses this year, Nebraska has been held to an average of less than 20 points. Michigan will score at least 30 Saturday night and move to 6-0. Play on MICHIGAN AAA |
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10-09-21 | South Alabama v. Texas State UNDER 53 | Top | 31-33 | Loss | -117 | 53 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the UNDER Here is a Saturday matchup off the radar of most. South Alabama is 3-1. Their last three games have been decided by a total of 12 points. Last week saw the Jaguars lose for the first time, 20-18 to Louisiana. We are surprised that this total is north of 50 points seeing as no USA game this season has seen that many scored. Texas State, 1-3 on the year, is coming off two high scoring games. Both were losses, one of them at home to Incarnate Word by a score of 42-34! Then the Bobcats went to Eastern Michigan and got beat 59-21. They were off last week. With an extra week to prepare, look for their defense to get back on track here. The Under is 7-1 in Texas State’s last eight games after a bye. It also helps that South Alabama has not scored more than 31 in any game this season. Texas State has averaged fewer than 20 points/game vs. FBS teams, excluding overtime. So we just can’t see this one getting to 50 points, let alone more than that. The Under is 6-1 in the Jaguars’ last seven road games and 4-0 the last four times they’ve been off an ATS win. Play on UNDER AAA |
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10-09-21 | Middle Tennessee State v. Liberty -19.5 | Top | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 49 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LIBERTY Two teams coming off upset victories are playing here as Liberty hosts Middle Tennessee. The difference is that last week was the first time Liberty had been a dog in 2021. MTSU has been a dog against every FBS team they have faced. Here is no different as the oddsmakers don’t believe in the Blue Raiders at all. We don’t either. All three of their losses have been on the road and Liberty might just be the best team they’ve faced so far. The Flames going to UAB last weekend and winning 36-12 really caught our eye. They put up nearly 550 total yards of offense. Liberty’s lone loss came in the Carrier Dome and that was a game where they had the edge in total yards. This defense is giving up just 266.4 yards/game, so expect MTSU to struggle to move the ball here. Against the two toughest teams they have faced, Virginia Tech and UTSA, the Blue Raiders were held to just 14 and 13 points. We expect them to score a similar number this Saturday afternoon. Syracuse was the only team to score more than 17 on Liberty thus far. So it’s up to the Flames’ offense to turn this into a blowout. Considering MTSU is allowing over 30 points/game vs. FBS teams, something like a 40-14 final, sounds pretty logical here. You may not know that Liberty is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games with the two losses coming by four total points. This is a good team! Play on LIBERTY AAA |
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10-09-21 | Michigan State -5 v. Rutgers | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 46 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MICH STATE Michigan State being 5-0 probably comes as a bit of a surprise to most. Twice they’ve gone on the road and pulled “upsets.” The word upsets is in quotes because those wins came at Northwestern and Miami FL, two teams we now know aren’t very good. So we’re not surprised Sparty is 5-0 coming into this weekend’s game at Rutgers. What we are a bit surprised about is the fact the offense is averaging 37.8 points/game. A close call over Nebraska, a game which went to OT ironically, was the only time they haven’t exceeded that average. Rutgers, on the other hand, has been held to 17 points or less in three of its last four games. The Scarlet Knights are coming off losses to Michigan and Ohio State the past two weeks. Like MSU, they are 4-1 ATS. Last week marked the first time Greg Schiano’s team did not cover as they were blown out 52-13 in Columbus. The defense gave up 541 yards and the team was down 45-6 at half. Don’t expect Michigan State to take it easy on them. Sparty has revenge for a 38-27 loss in 2020 where it turned the ball over seven times. Our view is that Rutgers just doesn’t have the offensive capability to stay within a short number, even at home. Lay it! Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA |
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10-08-21 | Temple v. Cincinnati -28.5 | Top | 3-52 | Win | 100 | 52 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CINCINNATI Cincinnati is 4-0 and ranked #5 in the country. The Bearcats went into Notre Dame last week and defeated the Fighting Irish 24-13 as 2.5 point favorites. We think it says a lot about where this program is at right now that they were favored to win in South Bend. They also covered in Indiana as favorites three weeks ago. It’s a much easier game this week as Luke Fickell’s team returns to Nippert Stadium to take on 3-2 Temple. The Owls pulled out an upset last week at home, coming back from 17 down to beat Memphis 34-31. That was a real shocker when you look and see the Owls were 11 point underdogs. Temple won only one game in 2020, so they’ve already surpassed last year’s win total. The spread here is large, but not without justification as both of Temple’s losses were by 25 or more points and those came against Rutgers and BC. The Owls are 0-4 ATS off an ATS win. Cincinnati has won 22 straight at home, the last loss coming to Temple back in 2017. The coaching staff will be sure to remind the players of that last home loss and we like the Bearcats to make another statement in front of a national TV audience. They led ND 17-0 last week. Here, they will not take their foot off the gas pedal. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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10-07-21 | Houston -5.5 v. Tulane | Top | 40-22 | Win | 100 | 48 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Houston (4-1) couldn’t have asked for a better start to last week’s game at Tulsa, which was also a weeknight affair. The Cougars scored on each of their opening three possessions to take a 21-0 lead less than a minute into the fourth quarter. That made it four straight wins since a loss to Texas Tech in the season opener. Now UH goes to Tulane, who is struggling at 1-4. The Green Wave have faced a pretty difficult schedule so far, including road trips to Oklahoma and Ole Miss. But there’s really no excuse for last week’s 52-29 setback at East Carolina. The Tulane defense is really struggling right now. They allowed 300 yards both passing and rushing against ECU. It was already the third time this year they gave up at least 40 points. Houston QB Clayton Tune has to be licking his chops here as he’s thrown for more than 250 yards/game over the previous four weeks. The Cougars offense should also be able to run all over Tulane. Houston’s defense has been stout, allowing only four touchdowns in the last four games. They have outscored teams 162-37 during the current win streak. Tulane has not led at any point in its last three games and has been outscored 141-71. Based on all this info, how can you not want to lay the points? Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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10-04-21 | Raiders v. Chargers -160 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 34 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHARGERS ML Las Vegas is 3-0 but two of the three wins were in overtime and the other was against a banged-up Pittsburgh team. So what we’re saying here is “don’t fall for the record.” Los Angeles is 2-1 but has victories over two of last year’s division champs and probably should have beaten Dallas in Week 2. They defeated Kansas City last week, on the road, 30-24 as a seven-point underdog. We can’t see them losing to the Raiders this week. Being 3-0 is nice, but this is only the second time in NFL history a team has started 3-0 with two wins in OT. The Raiders were down 14-0 last week to the Dolphins and needed a last second field goal to force OT against the Ravens back in Week 1. This is a team that could easily be 1-2. Derek Carr does lead the NFL in passing yards, but we still prefer the Chargers QB - Justin Herbert - who threw four touchdown passes last week against the Chiefs. We have questions about the Raiders’ offensive line and entire defense. Both units are suspect. At the end of the day, we prefer to simply call for a Chargers SU win as opposed to laying the points. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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10-03-21 | Bucs v. Patriots +7 | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 50 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 9* on NE For the first time ever, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick will be on opposite sidelines. There’s one team that Brady has never beaten in his career and that’s because he played for them for 20 seasons. Now he’s a visitor at Foxboro. His Buccaneers are coming off a loss, their first since Week 12 of last season. They were 5-0 ATS off a loss in the Super Bowl winning season, but they were a road favorite in just one of those five games. It was against Carolina, not a Bill Belichick coached team. It’s not a usual occurrence to see the Patriots getting this many points at Gillette Stadium. A defense that knows Brady well will keep this game close. Rob Gronkowski, another former Patriot, will miss this game. New England, a double digit loser to New Orleans in Week 3, is 4-0 the past four times they’ve been off a 10+ point loss at home. They are 9-2 ATS in their past 11 games as a home underdog. We expect one of the most heavily hyped regular season games in years to be close. Play on NEW ENGLAND AAA |
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10-03-21 | Steelers v. Packers -6.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 46 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on GB Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers have faced off only twice in their Hall of Fame careers. One of them was a Super Bowl, won by Rodgers’ Packers. It’s unfortunate for Big Ben that the third all-time meeting takes place at this stage of the game. A Steelers offense that is averaging only 16.7 points/game has seen all three of its top receivers get hurt in 2021. Chase Claypool has already been ruled out for Sunday. Johnson and Smith-Schuster were non-factors last week, with Johnson sitting out. Both are expected to play this week, but Big Ben is averaging less than 10 yards per pass attempt. The Steelers are coming off two straight losses at home favorites. Up next is a Packers team that has won its previous two games. Rodgers has completed 75% of his passes with six touchdowns and zero interceptions in the pair of victories. Pittsburgh’s defense saw its streak of 75 straight games with a sack end last week. Their offensive struggles to protect the stationary Roethlisberger. Too many injuries for a suddenly bad Pittsburgh to overcome on the road. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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10-03-21 | Washington Football Team -1.5 v. Falcons | Top | 34-30 | Win | 100 | 43 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASHINGTON Washington is one of three teams that has yet to cover a game against the spread. They lost to the Chargers as a 1.5 point favorite, beat the Giants 30-29 as four point favorites and then got blown out by the Bills. The problem has been their defense just hasn’t been as good as it was in 2020. But this week they’re up against Atlanta, a fellow 1-2 SU team whose offense ranks 29th in points and 27th in yards. Falcons QB Matt Ryan is averaging only 235.7 YPG, which is well off his career pace. Atlanta got its first win of 2021 last week, also by beating the Giants. That followed blowout losses to the Bucs and Eagles. We had Atlanta last week, but the Giants are easily one of the worst teams in the league. The Football Team’s front four is going to give Ryan problems all day. We think QB Heinicke has played pretty well so far for the Football Team. Well, maybe not last week, but he had a 300+ yard game against the Giants and that was better than Ryan did last week. This is a homecoming for Heinicke as he grew up in the Atlanta era. We think he’s the guy to end Washington’s six-game losing streak to Atlanta. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
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10-03-21 | Colts v. Dolphins -1.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -115 | 43 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MIAMI The winless Colts take on the 1-2 Dolphins in a matchup of disappointing teams. But Miami, even without Tua Tagovailoa, made more than a decent accounting for itself last week in Las Vegas. They took an early 14-0 lead, then forced the Raiders into overtime. While it ended up being a second straight loss for the ‘Fins, at least they left with the cash as underdogs. Miami has the best cover percentage in the NFL these last two seasons and key to that is a 6-0 ATS mark when coming off a loss. This week they return home where they’ve covered four straight times as favorites. Indianapolis is not playing well right now as last week’s nine point loss to the Titans marked the first time they weren’t down double digits in a game. We know that Miami has an injured QB and injured center, but the Colts are in worse shape with Carson Wentz playing on two injured ankles behind an offensive line that is even more banged up than what’s going on in Miami right now. This game means a lot to Dolphins QB Brissett as he is facing his former team. We don’t see how a team can go on the road with a QB dealing with two injured ankles and win. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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10-03-21 | Browns v. Vikings OVER 51 | Top | 14-7 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Cleveland is a top 10 offense and QB Mayfield is completing 73% of his passes. But the strength of this Browns offense is the run game. It’s arguably the best in the league with Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb. Coach Kevin Stefanski knows the opponent well as he previously served as the offensive coordinator under Mike Zimmer in Minnesota. But the Vikings can score as well, Kirk Cousins is playing at a very high level so far. He’s throwing for over 300 yards/game, has eight touchdowns and no interceptions. It certainly looks as if he’s getting Dalvin Cook back this week. Cook missed the team’s 30-17 win over Seattle in Week 3. Minnesota is 1-2, but four points away from being 3-0 and the offense has produced over 400 total yards in every game. The dominant performance we saw from Cleveland’s defense last week should be immediately tossed aside as they were facing a rookie QB making his first start behind a terrible offensive line. The Browns allowed an average of 27 points in its first two games. The Over is 8-2 the Vikings past 10 home games. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-02-21 | Baylor +4 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 9* on BAYLOR We’ll have one less undefeated team in the Big 12 after Saturday as 4-0 Baylor meets 4-0 Oklahoma State in Stillwater. Both are off their biggest wins of the season. Baylor upset Iowa State 31-29 in Waco. Oklahoma State beat Kansas State 31-20 here in its conference opener. Baylor has won two Big 12 games as it also went on the road and destroyed Kansas 45-7. OSU is much luckier to be 4-0 on the year as their first three wins were by a total of 13 points. Two of those three wins required comebacks. Baylor has beaten OSU in six of the last nine years but has revenge for an awful 42-3 loss at the end of last year when the game was rescheduled due to COVID-19 and the Bears probably didn’t care. So we will grab the points with what we feel has been the superior outfit to this point. The Cowboys have not scored a single second half point in the last two games. Baylor is on an 11-3-1 ATS run as underdogs. OK State has covered only one of its last five as home favorites. Play on BAYLOR AAA |
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10-02-21 | Louisiana Tech v. NC State OVER 55 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 26 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Louisiana Tech and North Carolina State should be headed for a shootout Saturday night in Raleigh. Louisiana Tech is off its lowest scoring game of the season, a 24-17 win over North Texas. The first three weeks of the season saw them score at least 34 points in every game. They also gave up at least 35 in every game. NC State is off its biggest win in some time as it handed Clemson a second loss in 2021. The Wolfpack were victorious by a 27-21 margin. That was after averaging 45 points in the first two home wins. They’ve won 11 straight at Carter-Finney Stadium vs. Group of 5 teams and are 21-1 under Dave Doeren at home vs. all non-conference teams. This is a bit of a letdown spot but La Tech’s defense is giving up 6.0 yards/play. NC State should have beaten Clemson in regulation last week but the kicker missed three field goals. Look for them to score plenty of touchdowns this week. La Tech was missing its starting QB last week but coach Holtz is hopeful that Austin Kendall will return Saturday. The Bulldogs are 4-0 Over after their last four SU wins. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-02-21 | Syracuse v. Florida State -4.5 | Top | 30-33 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FSU How rare is it that 0-4 Florida State is favored over a Power 5 team with a winning record? This is the first time this situation has presented itself since 1988! Everything has gone wrong so far for the Seminoles as they’ve dropped three one score games. Syracuse is coming off a big upset at home against Liberty. It really does speak volumes that the oddsmakers still think FSU is the better team here. We’re with them and will lay the points. The Orange were a one-win team last season. They are 0-6 SU in ACC road openers. They are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS at FSU. Besides upsetting Liberty, the other two wins this year were against Albany and Ohio. If FSU can cut down on the turnovers (they have 11 so far) then they can turn things around. Those six home wins over Syracuse have been by an average of 26 points/game. Mike Norvell gets his 1st win of the year by a margin greater than the spread. Play on FSU AAA |
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10-02-21 | Michigan +2.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 21 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MICHIGAN Much will be made of the fact Michigan did not score in the second half last week against Rutgers. But despite that, and being slightly outgained, the Wolverines still won the game 20-13 and are 4-0. They have not turned the ball over once and lead the nation in rushing. They are simply better than an underachieving Wisconsin team that has only put up 10 and 13 points in losses to Penn State and Notre Dame. We patently disagree with Michigan being underdogs here. They’ve yet to allow more than 14 points in any game. The Wolverines are ranked 14th in the country and Wisconsin has lost seven straight to ranked opponents. The Badgers just don’t take good care of the football. They have nine turnovers in three games, five coming last week. Wisconsin is 2-6 ATS the last eight times it has been favored and is 0-5 ATS its last five conference games. Play on MICHIGAN AAA |
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10-02-21 | Toledo -27 v. UMass | Top | 45-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TOLEDO Toledo is 2-2. That’s a slight disappointment as they were double digit favorites in a loss to Colorado State. But the other loss saw them take Notre Dame down to the wire in South Bend. This week, the Rockets travel to face one of the worst teams in the country, UMass. The Minutemen have lost every game by at least 14 points. They have been underdogs of more than 35 points in three of the four games. A home game vs. Eastern Michigan, another MAC team, was the exception. Toledo is better than EMU, who could only win here by 14. The Rockets averaged 6.2 yards per rush last week against Ball State. The only time this Toledo defense has allowed more than 22 points was Notre Dame. Take away a special teams touchdown by Colorado State and the defense has “really” allowed 15 points or less three times. UMass is off a 50 point loss to Coastal Carolina. They scored only three points and it was their 15th straight loss. They are 1-19 SU L20 games and only covered six times. Play on TOLEDO AAA |
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10-01-21 | Iowa v. Maryland UNDER 48.5 | Top | 51-14 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER This should be a good one Friday night in the Big 10. Iowa and Maryland both come in at 4-0. Only the Hawkeyes are ranked and while they are #5 in the country, they survived a scare at home last week vs. Colorado State. It was only a 10-point win, 24-14, over a team they were supposed to beat by 24. They even trailed at the half. But we need not worry about winning by any kind of margin this week. Instead, we will simply trust a Hawkeyes defense that is third in the country in scoring (11.0 PPG allowed). Maryland QB Tagovailoa has put up some nice numbers, but has yet to face a defense as good as the one he’ll face here. When the Terps opened Big 10 play with a game at Illinois, they scored only 20 points. Lost in the talk of how good Iowa’s defense has been is how sound Maryland’s D has been. The Terps are allowing only 14.3 points/game so far. So we’ve got two of the country’s top 10 scoring defenses facing off. Iowa’s offense has scored more than three touchdowns in only one game. Against Power 5 opponents, they’ve averaged just 238 yards/game. All four of their games so far have gone Under. Maryland is 4-0 Under its last four Big 10 games. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-30-21 | Virginia v. Miami-FL -5.5 | Top | 30-28 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI FL Quarterback is a question mark for Miami coming into the ACC opener vs. Virginia. D’Eriq King is still dealing with a shoulder injury that caused him to miss last week’s game vs. Central Connecticut State. However, the combination of Tyler Van Dyke and Jake Garcia led the Hurricanes to 69 points and 739 yards. You’re probably saying “well, look at who they were playing.” Yes, it’s true those numbers came against a FCS team. But Virginia’s defense might not be much better. It gave up nearly 700 yards in a 59-39 loss to North Carolina, then it allowed 473 in a 37-17 loss to Wake Forest last Thursday. This is the third straight year that the Cavaliers are visiting Hard Rock Stadium. The offense put up only 9 and 14 points in a pair of losses the last two seasons. Now they’re going to score more than that here. Their QB Brennan Armstrong has been very good. But not good enough to overcome a terrible defense. Miami is getting back RB Jaylan Knighton from a four-game suspension. Virginia has not been a good road team the last few seasons. If King plays for Miami, just consider that a huge bonus. The Canes will cover the number no matter who is in at quarterback. Play on MIAMI FL AAA |
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09-27-21 | Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 51.5 | Top | 21-41 | Win | 100 | 35 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Both the Eagles and Cowboys are 1-1. Philadelphia won its first game but lost the second. It’s been just the opposite for Dallas. An Eagles defense that has yet to force a turnover will struggle to stop a high-powered Cowboys offense Monday night. Dallas averaged 6.4 yards per rush and 8.8 yards per pass against the Chargers last week. It was a little stunning that they only had 20 points and needed a 56-yard field goal on the final play to win. Through the first two weeks, the Cowboys are averaging 435 yards/game and converting over 55 percent of their third down opportunities. They have 35 plays of 10 or more yards. It was already going to be a tough task for Philly to slow down their opponents in this game. With DE Brandon Graham suffering a season-ending ACL injury last week, the task is now that much harder. So that’s one half of this equation. After scoring 32 in the season opener, the Eagles were held to 11 last week by the 49ers. But they had a blocked field goal and a 94-yard drive ended with no points. Dallas doesn’t have a good defense. They’ve allowed over 400 yards to both of their 2021 opponents. The Over is 8-2 in the Cowboys' last 10 home games. The Eagles are on a 15-6 run to the Over after a game where they were held under 15 points. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-26-21 | Packers +3 v. 49ers | Top | 30-28 | Win | 101 | 46 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 9* on GB Things were looking pretty dicey for Green Bay Monday night. They’d been blown out 38-3 by New Orleans in the opener, then trailed at the half to Detroit at home. But Aaron Rodgers, as he’s wont to do, took over in the second half and made the skepticism look foolish. The Packers now get a favorable matchup against a banged-up 49ers team Sunday night. Green Bay has covered four of the last five times after playing on Monday Night Football. As a road underdog, Rodgers is on a 5-2 ATS run. San Francisco is 2-0 with road wins over Detroit and Philadelphia. Neither of those opponents are expected to be any good, so they should be 2-0. The problem is the last two times the Niners have played at home following back to back road games on the East Coast, they have lost outright. All five times they were favored at home last year, they failed to cover. But the biggest problem - even more than facing Rodgers - are the injuries. Running back is perilously thin with the only two available ball carries combining for just two carries for -1 yard this year. Missing CB Verrett seems problematic going against Rodgers. San Fran was outgained last week despite beating Philly 17-11. Green Bay’s defense held Detroit to zero points in the second half Monday night. The 49ers’ defense gave up more than 400 yards to the Lions. Grab the points. Play on GREEN BAY AAA |
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09-26-21 | Seahawks -1 v. Vikings | Top | 17-30 | Loss | -123 | 42 h 25 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEATTLE Seattle is 1-1 after letting one slip away in the fourth quarter last week. They blew a 14-point lead to Tennessee and lost 33-30 in overtime. As crushing a defeat as that was for the Seahawks, it’s nothing compared to what the Vikings have experienced the first two weeks of the season. Mike Zimmer’s team is 0-2 with the losses coming by a total of four points. Both games came down to a field goal attempt on the final play. In Week 1, Dalvin Cook’s fumble led to a game-winner for Cincinnati in overtime. In Week 2, the Vikings’ kicker missed what would have been the game winner and it was a 34-33 loss to Arizona. Minnesota is now just 1-8 ATS its last nine games and had the second worst cover percentage in the league the last two seasons. Russell Wilson should carve up their porous secondary, throwing to Tyler Lockett, who is second in the league in receiving yards and touchdowns. The Seahawks are 7-0 vs. the Vikings with Wilson at QB including wins each of the last three seasons. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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09-26-21 | Falcons +3 v. Giants | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 39 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA Here are two 0-2 teams that haven’t played particularly well. But the Giants tend to fall into a predictable pattern. They cover the spread when on the road, they fail to cover when at home. Last Thursday they improved to 17-5 ATS as road dogs, covering the number at Washington in a 30-29 loss. But this week they’re back home. The G-men are just 5-12 ATS in East Rutherford the last two seasons. They didn’t cover in the home opener, losing to Denver 27-13 as three-point dogs. This week they are laying points for the first time in 2021. We like the opportunity to take points against one of the worst teams in the league. This is the fifth consecutive season that New York has opened 0-2. Atlanta has struggled, but also played better than the score showed last week vs. Tampa Bay. Matt Ryan had two interceptions returned for touchdowns in the fourth quarter, resulting in a misleading 48-25. The Falcons, believe it or not, outgained the Bucs. Ryan, with his quick release, should not be bothered by an anemic Giants’ pass rush which far too often fails to get home. Saquon Barkley is pretty clearly not fully recovered from his ACL injury. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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09-26-21 | Cardinals v. Jaguars OVER 51.5 | Top | 31-19 | Loss | -102 | 39 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 8* on OVER Arizona is humming so far at 2-0. The offense has scored 72 points in two games. We had them in Week 1 when they went to Tennessee and whipped the Titans 38-13 as a 2.5 point underdog. Last week saw the Cardinals survive a missed Vikings FG attempt on the final play to win 34-33. They’ve scored a lot of points so far, but Arizona is still the only team in the league that hasn’t gone Over the total in a single road game the last two seasons. The Under is 8-0-1 in their last nine road games. But considering the state of the offense, we think we can count on them to put lots of points on the scoreboard this Sunday. Kyler Murray threw for over 400 yards against the Vikings. Jacksonville is not humming along right now as it’s an 0-2 start under Urban Meyer. The only thing the Jaguars are leading the league in right now is turnovers with five. They were beaten at home by Houston in Week 1, 37-21, which was a total embarrassment. The offense couldn’t do much (less than 200 yards) in last week’s 23-13 loss to Denver. Meyer and Trevor Lawrence desperately need a good performance in their second home game. The franchise’s losing streak is now at 17 straight. Arizona’s defense isn’t good so the Jags probably will score a season-high in points Sunday. But the problem is the Cardinals will score a lot too. Murray is going to be facing a banged up secondary. That Under streak on the road ends this week. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-26-21 | Bengals v. Steelers UNDER 43 | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 39 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 9* on the UNDER Not expecting a lot of points from this AFC North matchup. Bengals’ games have averaged 44 points so far. That’s how many points they’ve scored and allowed in two weeks. The Steelers have scored 40 and given up 42 for an average of 41 points/game. Ben Roethlisberger, whose best days are behind him, enters Week 3 banged up. The Steelers’ offensive line has played poorly thus far and will be challenged against this Cincinnati pass rush led by Trey Hendrickson. The poor offensive line play has also resulted in Pittsburgh averaging only 3.2 yards per carry in the run game. The good news for Pittsburgh is that the Bengals also have a poor offensive line. Joe Burrow has already been sacked nine times. We saw what the Steelers pass rush did to Josh Allen in Week 1. Now they weren’t as effective in a 26-17 loss to Las Vegas last week. TJ Watt got hurt and is questionable for this week. A couple other defensive players have already been ruled out. Despite those absences, Pittsburgh’s defense will still be fine. We can't see the Bengals putting up a ton of points in this game. In a 20-17 loss to Chicago last week, they only gained 248 yards. But the defense only allowed 208. Taking the Under is an easy call here. AAA |
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09-25-21 | Colorado +14.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 13-35 | Loss | -120 | 47 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COLORADO Both Colorado and Arizona State are off losses. Colorado has lost its last two games and scored just seven points in doing so. But ASU is 0-3 ATS and one of the most penalized teams in the country, a bad combination when asked to lay double digits in a conference game. This spread should definitely be closer to one touchdown, not two. Herm Edwards’ Sun Devils started 2021 with Top 25 aspirations but those went out the window with last week’s poor showing against BYU. You would have thought BYU was in a bad situation as they were coming off an upset over rival Utah. But four ASU turnovers paved the way for the Cougars to make it two straight upsets over the Pac 12. Colorado’s offensive numbers from last week are going to scare a lot of bettors away but you’ve got to remember this team was very close to defeating Texas A&M two weeks ago. ASU is just 3-10 ATS as a favorite and 2-7 ATS at home since the start of 2019. Things can get pretty crazy “after dark” in the Pac 12. Why not here? Play on COLORADO AAA |
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09-25-21 | Nebraska +5 v. Michigan State | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 43 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 9* on NEBRASKA So Michigan State is 3-0, which is something that no one outside of East Lansing expected. Twice so far Sparty has gone off as the underdog. They won at Northwestern in the season opener and then at Miami FL last week. Not to diminish what Mel Tucker is accomplishing here but Northwestern isn’t very good and Miami shot itself in the foot with two fourth quarter turnovers that turned a close 17-14 game into a 38-17 blowout. Sparty finished +4 in turnovers, which was the difference in a game where the number of total yards gained by the two teams was essentially even. The public now seems to have fallen in love with MSU as they are laying a short number at home to two-loss Nebraska. But the Cornhuskers should have beaten Illinois in the opener and then fared much better than expected last week against Oklahoma. They only lost 23-16 despite being 22.5 point underdogs to the #4 ranked team in the country. Since the opening week loss, QB Martinez has turned it over only one time and that was an incredible interception by Oklahoma’s D.J. Graham last week inside the 10-yard line. Had it not been for that play and a blocked XP that was returned for two points, the Cornhuskers could have beaten the Sooners. Nebraska has covered five of the last six times it has been off a loss and they are 8-1 ATS the L9 games vs. Michigan State. This will be the first time this year the Spartans are favored to beat an FBS opponent. They are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite. Grab the points. Play on NEBRASKA AAA |
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09-25-21 | Kansas State +6 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 20-31 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 9* on KANSAS STATE Oklahoma State is 3-0 but has outscored opponents by only 13 points. They held on to beat Missouri State 23-16, barely escaped Tulsa and then won by one point at Boise State. The 28-23 win against Tulsa required three fourth quarter touchdowns. Boise State was another fourth quarter comeback as the Cowboys scored two touchdowns in the final 2:10 to win 21-20. Given all those close calls, we will gladly grab the points with Kansas State this week. The Wildcats are also 3-0 and now find themselves in the Top 25. They’ve beaten Stanford 24-7, Southern Illinois 31-23 and Nevada 38-17. Along the way they did lose QB Skylar Thompson to injury. But what’s key to winning this game is the Wildcats’ ability to stop the run. Their defense is giving up just 1.9 yards per rush attempt. OSU likes to run the ball, but probably won’t be too successful this week. Kansas State is 13-4 ATS in this rivalry going back to 1998. They’ve also done a great job covering the spread as underdogs. They are on a 44-22-1 ATS run when taking points. Oklahoma State has not covered any of the last four times it’s been favored in Stillwater. Grab those points. Play on KANSAS STATE AAA |
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09-25-21 | Colorado State v. Iowa -23 | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on IOWA Iowa is looking very good this season. They’ve climbed up to #5 in the polls, its highest ranking in nearly six years. Kirk Ferentz’s defense has led the way by giving up only 30 points total in three games. Keep in mind they’ve already beaten two ranked P5 teams, Indiana and Iowa State, and did so convincingly. Here’s something else to consider - the Hawkeyes’ defense has scored the same number of touchdowns that it has allowed this season. That would be three. They also registered a safety last week against Kent State, which allowed them to cover the spread for the third consecutive game. This week they host a Colorado State team that’s 1-2 and averaging only 22 points despite facing Toledo, Vanderbilt and South Dakota State. After losing their first two games, both as favorites, the Rams beat Toledo 22-6 despite never scoring an offensive TD. They will struggle mightily on offense in this game. Perhaps we all should have seen Iowa coming now that they’ve won nine straight games overall and 14 straight non-conference games. The offense may not be as good as the defense but has gone over 24 points every time during the nine-game run. The defense hasn’t allowed more than 24 points in a game since 2018. Including last week, Iowa has covered three of the last four times it has been a favorite of 20 or more. Colorado State has never faced them before and will likely still wish that was the case after Saturday. The home team can name the score here. Play on IOWA AAA |
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09-25-21 | Texas Tech v. Texas -7.5 | Top | 35-70 | Win | 100 | 36 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS Most of the recent Texas-Texas Tech clashes have come down to the wire. We don’t think this one will. Even with all the close calls, like last year’s somewhat miraculous 63-56 win in overtime, the Longhorns have managed to still take 15 of the last 18 meetings from the Red Raiders. They’ve also won four straight Big 12 openers. This is the first conference game of 2021 for both teams. Texas Tech is the one that comes in unbeaten as they are 3-0 for the first time since 2017. But that’s what you’d expect them to be given who they’ve played (Houston, Stephen F Austin and FIU). The Red Raiders run defense has been stout against the inferior competition, but here you’ve got a Texas team that just ran the ball for over 400 yards last week against Rice. That was a much needed effort after the ‘Horns were corralled by Arkansas two weeks ago. But it turns out that Arkansas is pretty good. Losing to them 40-21 put a dent in Texas’ reputation but we still think they have a Top 25 team in Austin. The Longhorns allowed only 284 total yards in the 58-0 win over Rice last Saturday. Texas Tech has not won a true road game since 2019 and is just 1-9 SU in them under Matt Wells. This should be a double digit spread. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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09-24-21 | Liberty v. Syracuse UNDER 54 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 21 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER This is a game where the points are tempting. Before losing 38-21 to Liberty last year, Syracuse had won and covered five straight times vs. Group of 5 foes at the Carrier Dome. This season began with a 29-9 home win over Ohio. Dino Babers has not had much success here, going just 26-37 in six-plus seasons and 10 of those wins were in 2018. The Orange dropped to 1-10 in 2020 but have already surpassed last year’s win total with victories over Ohio and Albany. The improvement has mostly come from the defensive side of the ball, which is allowing averages of just 16.7 points and 225.3 yards/game while ranking 24th in EPA. But you can’t look past them only scoring 7 points in the loss to Rutgers. Liberty is a good team and has a good defense as well. The Flames have held each of their first three opponents to 17 points or less. But in their only road game, the offense scored only 21 against Troy. Liberty probably escapes with a win, but it’s going to be a low-scoring affair. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-24-21 | Middle Tennessee State +3 v. Charlotte | Top | 39-42 | Push | 0 | 31 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIDDLE TENNESSEE Middle Tennessee is 1-2 with both losses coming on the road to FBS opponents. They opened 2021 by defeating Monmouth, an FCS school, 50-15 as 8.5 point favorites. But then came losses at Virginia Tech and UTSA, neither of which saw the Blue Raiders cover. Now those are two good teams they faced. Both are much better than the team they face this week. Charlotte started 2-0 but then lost last week at Georgia State. The 49ers could only score nine points, making you wonder what they did to deserve to be favored this week. They did upset Duke in the very first game, 31-28 as a 6.5 point pup. But they did give up 580 yards in that win. The other win for Charlotte came against Gardner-Webb, another FCS team. While this is the first time since 2009 that Middle Tennessee has had to play three straight games on the road, we predicted them to finish ahead of Charlotte in the Conference USA East Division. Therefore, an opportunity to take points is something we don’t dare pass up. These schools did not face off last season because of COVID. But MTSU has won four of the last five meetings. Play on MIDDLE TENNESSEE AAA |
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09-23-21 | Panthers v. Texans UNDER 43.5 | Top | 24-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER We’ve got a backup QB starting for Houston and he’s a rookie no less. If that’s not bad enough, the rookie in question (Davis Mills) will be facing the defense that has given up the fewest yards in the league through two weeks. And it’s a short week for Mills. So you can pretty much write off the notion of the Texans scoring many points on Thursday Night Football. After Mills replaced injured starter Tyrod Taylor last week, the offense managed just one touchdown against what is a pretty porous Cleveland defense. The Panthers are only putting up 22.5 points/game and enter this one knowing it won’t take much scoring to get to 3-0 on the season. Look for them to play it pretty conservative on offense as Sam Darnold still can’t be trusted to air it out. They will instead look to run a lot with Christian McCaffery. He’s had 59 touches in two games. Back to the defense, Carolina has yet to give up any points in the first half. The Under is 5-0 in their last five regular season games. Tonight has all the makings of a low-scoring affair. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-23-21 | Marshall v. Appalachian State OVER 59 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Marshall and Appalachian State played each other last season. Marshall pulled the outright upset on their way to a 7-0 start. It was a very low-scoring game, 17-7, as most Thundering Herd games were in 2020. It was a team with one of the best defenses in the country but a fairly inept offense. The inept offense ended up getting Doc Holliday fired when the Herd lost their last three games while averaging 7.7 points. Under Charles Huff, the offense has been reborn this year as it is averaging 43.7 points and 603 yards per game. The defense just gave up 42 though in a loss to East Carolina last week. Appalachian State can also score as they are putting up 33.3 points/game through three weeks. So this has all the makings of a high-scoring affair. The O/U line for last year’s game was pretty comparable to what we’ve got here. Obviously, the teams couldn’t come close to the number last year. But this year Marshall’s offense is much better and the defense isn’t as good. Appalachian State has welcomed its best receiver (Chase Sutton) back after he sat out the 2020 season. So their offense is better this year as well. We should also bring up how Marshall’s QB Grant Wells is coming off the two best passing days of his career. Both defenses ranked in the Top 15 last year in yards/play allowed. Now they are both outside the Top 40. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-20-21 | Lions +11.5 v. Packers | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DET Even against the Lions, this is too many points for the Packers to lay in a battle of 0-1 NFC North teams. Did you see how awful the Pack looked in Week 1? They got thumped 38-3 by a Saints team that just got blown out by Carolina yesterday. The game wasn’t even in New Orleans as it got moved to Jacksonville due to Hurricane Ida. It got so ugly that Aaron Rodgers was pulled from the game. The Packers ran only 15 times for 43 yards, so there wasn’t much help for the reigning MVP. The defense allowed Jameis Winston to throw five touchdown passes. Compare that to yesterday when the Saints gained just 128 yards and didn’t score until the fourth quarter. Detroit at least covered the spread in their season opener. That was thanks to a late rally against San Francisco. The offense did gain 430 yards and if it can come anywhere close to that tonight, then they will again cover the spread. The Lions have covered six of the last seven times they’ve faced the Packers and three of the last four times they’ve lost to them, the game was decided by no more than seven points. With it still being early in the season, Detroit is going to play hard for its first year coach Dan Campbell. How can you lay double digits with Green Bay after last week’s performance? Play on DETROIT AAA |
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09-19-21 | Chiefs -3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 35-36 | Loss | -107 | 46 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KC Kansas City came from behind to defeat Cleveland 32-29 in Week 1. Baltimore blew a lead and lost 33-27 in Las Vegas. This is a short week for the Ravens as that game in LV was Monday night. They were seven seconds away from winning in regulation but that was ripped away from them. Then came a wild overtime that left them deflated. Few teams have already endured the amount of injuries the Ravens have. Already eight players have landed on the IR. Facing Patrick Mahomes is never easy when fully healthy. Baltimore is anything but right now. Lamar Jackson has never beaten Mahomes before. The Ravens defense looks questionable right now. Are they really going to fix their defensive issues on a short week against the MVP? We say “no.” Mahomes and the Chiefs offense have averaged 31.3 points in three previous wins over the Ravens. Jackson has a sub-55 percent completion rate in his three games vs. the Chiefs. Andy Reid has won 70% of the time in his coaching career when having the rest advantage. Mahomes is 16-8-1 ATS on the road his career. Love the idea of getting to lay such a short number with the best team in the AFC. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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09-19-21 | Titans v. Seahawks -6.5 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -105 | 42 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEATTLE Two weeks in a row we’re going against Tennessee. It worked pretty well last week, didn’t it? The Titans got blitzed out of the box, were down 17-0 before they knew it and ended up losing 38-13 at home to the Arizona Cardinals. We didn’t even need those points we took with the Cards. Now it’s the Titans who are underdogs. We just don’t see them staying with the Seahawks in Seattle. So much of what we wrote about Tennessee last week rang true. The offense just isn’t going to be able to match last season’s numbers even with WR Julio Jones in the fold. There’s a lot of tread on the tires of Derrick Henry and he was held to 58 yards on 17 carries by the Cardinals. It just so happens that Seattle’s defense just held Indianapolis RB Jonathan Taylor to almost identical numbers - 56 yards on 17 carries. The Titans’ offensive line gave up six sacks to the Cardinals while the Seahawks sacked Carson Wentz constantly in Week 1. But worst of all for the Titans is that their defense looked every bit as bad as it did in 2020. They allowed over 400 yards and it was another game with 30 or more points allowed, something they did eight times last season. The Titans were 29th against the pass and 28th in total yardage in 2020. Wilson will carve them up much the same way he did another AFC South team last week. He threw four touchdown passes in a 28-16 win over Indianapolis. The Seahawks led the game by double digits the entire second half. Everyone knows this is one of the stronger homefield edges in the NFL. Considering what Kyler Murray was able to do to the Titans, Wilson is likely to do the same. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
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09-19-21 | Bills -180 v. Dolphins | Top | 35-0 | Win | 100 | 38 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 6* on BUF MONEYLINE Buffalo suffered one of the more surprising losses in Week 1, falling 23-16 at home to Pittsburgh. That’s a good defense they were up against so there’s no reason to panic … yet. But an 0-2 start is something that the Bills, one of the Super Bowl favorites, desperately want to avoid. Things looked good early last week as the Bills took a 10-0 lead to halftime. But sloppy mistakes, such as having a punt blocked and returned for a TD, keyed the Steelers’ turnaround. Despite a career-high 51 pass attempts, Josh Allen didn’t have his best game. But he’s had some good ones in the past against the team he faces in Week 2. In six career games vs. the Dolphins, Allen is 5-1 with 17 touchdowns and four interceptions. He’s thrown for 1,557 yards, averaging 8.7 per attempt and had four games with three or more touchdown passes. The Bills have won the previous five meetings and scored 31 or more every time on this Miami defense. While you’ve got to respect Miami’s ATS record as a dog under Brian Flores, we can’t see Buffalo losing this game nor can we see the Dolphins starting the year with back to back upsets inside the division. So we’ll take the safer, moneyline route in this AFC East matchup. The Dolphins won’t be able to generate the same kind of pressure on Allen that the Steelers did. Allen is 11-4-1 ATS on the road in his career. We don’t need him to cover though, just to win. Play BUFFALO on the MONEYLINE AAA |
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09-19-21 | Rams -3.5 v. Colts | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -108 | 38 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA RAMS The Rams looked very impressive Sunday night when they beat the Bears 34-14 as a nine-point favorite. New QB Matt Stafford looked right at home in Sean McVay’s offense as the former Lion threw for 321 yards and three touchdowns. Stafford could be in line for another 300-plus yard day this week, or at least close to that, when he faces a Colts secondary that just gave up four touchdown passes to Russell Wilson. In sharp contrast to the Rams, Indy looked bad in a 28-16 opening week loss. Carson Wentz, not long removed from foot surgery, was a sitting duck behind an offensive line that played poorly. The Rams have Aaron Donald so Wentz is likely to be under duress yet again this week. Worth noting is that the Colts have never covered in four previous tries as a home underdog under Frank Reich. McVay is 8-3 straight up and against the spread as a favorite of -3.5 to -9.5. You’ve got to be careful not to overreact to one week, but the Rams looked really good in Week 1 and the Colts simply did not. The Rams have also been a really good road team during McVay’s time here, winning 23 of 34 games. They have been perfect in road openers the last four years averaging over 30 points/game. Lay it! Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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09-19-21 | Texans v. Browns OVER 48 | Top | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 38 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER We’ve got a recipe for a shootout on Sunday when the Texans and Browns meet in First Energy Stadium. Houston is expected to be one of the worst teams in the league this year but that did not stop them from putting up 37 points in an upset win over Jacksonville in Week 1. The offense averaged 6.0 yards per play with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. Cleveland is expected to be one the better AFC teams but they lost 29-27 to Kansas City last Sunday, blowing a 22-10 halftime lead. Baker Mayfield and the offense were red hot in the first half, averaging more than nine yards per play. They finished with 8.2 yards per play, 457 total yards and really should have won that game. No interest in laying the double digit spread with the Browns here, however we are confident that they will put up a lot of points. So too will the Texans as the Browns defense couldn’t get off the field in the second half last week. Taylor isn’t Patrick Mahomes but he did throw for almost 300 yards last week. These teams’ Week 1 games averaged 60 points and we don’t need to get nearly that high to send this one Over. The Browns are 6-1 Over their last seven games on grass. Play OVER AAA |
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09-18-21 | Iowa State v. UNLV UNDER 52.5 | Top | 48-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER It’s been a very disappointing start for Iowa State, who opened the year ranked in the top ten. First they could barely get by Northern Iowa, a FCS school. But that 16-10 WIN pales in comparison to the embarrassment suffered last weekend when they lost against Iowa, 27-17, this time in front of ESPN’s College Gameday. The offense failing to top 17 points in either game is a real concern in Ames. Now the Cyclones are still ranked 14th in the country and that’s a lot better than where the UNLV program is at right now. The Rebels have yet to win in eight tries during the Marcus Arroyo regime and this season got off to a bad start with a 35-33 loss to Eastern Washington. Losing to a FCS school was probably even more embarrassing than what happened last week as the Rebels could only muster 10 points and 155 yards against Arizona State. This has all the makings of a low scoring affair Saturday night. Depending on the upper body injury to Doug Brumfield, whose status you should monitor, it could be Tate Martell making his first collegiate start for UNLV this week. Martell has already transferred out of Ohio State and Miami FL, so maybe it’s time to admit that the former HS Player of the Year simply isn’t that good? Whomever starts under center must face an ISU defense that has permitted an average of only 15.3 points and 288.1 yards the last seven games. Excluding non-offensive scores, the Cyclones have allowed just 22 second half points in those seven games. We don’t think their offense will score all that much here either. So the call is simple. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-18-21 | Auburn +5.5 v. Penn State | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on Auburn There are just two matchups of Top 25 teams on Saturday’s docket. One of them is #1 Alabama taking on #11 Florida, a game where most will be picking the same side to win. Later on, there’s a far more intriguing matchup as #22 Auburn faces #10 Penn State. Auburn is 2-0 having put up 122 points, the most in the country through two weeks. They’ve only allowed 10. While this is a big step up after playing the likes of Akron and Alabama State, we are going with the Tigers plus the points. Penn State had the win over Wisconsin, but they only scored 16 points and were greatly aided by three Badgers’ turnovers. We had the Under last week when they hosted Ball State. Again, the Nittany Lions defense dominated. They allowed 13 points and 295 yards. It was an easy 44-13 win and yes, the Under did cash. It will not be easy against Auburn. With the exception of Ohio State, this could be the best offense Penn State sees all season. There are already 11 different Auburn receivers with a reception of 10 or more yards. The team’s two star running backs - Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter - have each gone over 100 yards in both games so far. But Auburn can also play a little defense. They’ve given up just 43 total rush yards so far. Do you have to consider the level of opposition? Absolutely. But you also have to consider the Tigers have won and covered seven straight games in the month of September. We’ll take the points. Play on AUBURN AAA |
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09-18-21 | East Carolina v. Marshall -9.5 | Top | 42-38 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MARSHALL East Carolina is 0-2. They’ve opened the season with losses to Appalachian State and South Carolina. The Pirates were underdogs in both games and did not cover either. They were home dogs last week in a 20-17 loss to South Carolina. Before that, it was a nine-point spread in Boone. It’s a near identical spread this week as ECU visits Marshall. The problem for the Pirates in this game is two-fold. One, the Thundering Herd again look like they have a tremendous defense. Last year saw them lead the country in stopping the run and points allowed. You can’t get much better than that. They gave up 96 yards/game on the ground and allowed only 13.0 points/game. This year, for a new head coach, the number of points they’ve allowed in two games is 17. The Herd did allow a ton of rushing yards to Navy, however that is understandable. They were back to their old selves last week when the number of yards they allowed on the ground was just 71 on 27 carries. The other problem that East Carolina will have Saturday is that Marshall’s offense looks a lot better than it did in 2020. They’ve put up 93 points in two games. Grant Wells is completing over 70 percent of his passes. East Carolina is a team that has just five FBS wins since 2019. It’s Mike Houston’s third year in Greenville, but still his team is not adequate enough to contend with a proven bunch like Marshall. The loss to South Carolina was a heartbreaker as the Pirates blew a 14-0 lead and watched as a last second field goal sailed through the uprights for the Gamecocks. Marshall is 2-0 despite six turnovers. On the 50th anniversary of the “Young Thundering Herd” team, the current Thundering Herd will make the alumni proud. Play on MARSHALL AAA |
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09-18-21 | Mississippi State v. Memphis +3.5 | Top | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 25 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MEMPHIS There are some real “funny” lines this Saturday and this is definitely one of them. Mississippi State struggled for three quarters against Louisiana Tech before escaping with a 35-34 win. Then they pulled out a surprise 24-10 over North Carolina State as two-point home underdogs, a game where the difference was clearly three Wolfpack turnovers. Well, three turnovers + an opening kick return for a touchdown. Don’t think the Bulldogs will be that lucky again when they play their first road game of 2021 against a Memphis team that has not lost at the Liberty Bowl since 2018. The Tigers are also 2-0 with wins over Nicholls State and Arkansas State. The second game was a real barn burner with both teams scoring 50 points and gaining 680 yards. But Memphis put up 55 and held on for the victory. The final margin of victory wasn’t enough to cover the spread, however you should be aware that the Tigers allowed two late touchdowns after leading by double digits most of the game. Memphis is 4-0 ATS as a home dog since 2017 including upsets of UCF and Houston last season. They lead the nation in total offense right now at 634.5 yards/game and QB Henigan, a true freshman, looks to be the real deal. The “Air Raid” will not be the most explosive offense on the field Saturday. Take the points. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
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09-18-21 | Virginia Tech +2.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 21-27 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on VA TECH Not sure we understand this line. Virginia Tech is off to a 2-0 start for Justin Fuente, which includes a 17-10 upset over then #10 North Carolina. The Hokies came into that game as 5.5 point underdogs, so it was a really impressive win. Their second SU win was much more comfortable as they defeated Middle Tennessee by a score of 35-14. But it was also a lot closer as far as the point spread was concerned (they were -20). Now they are dogs again, this time on the road, as they go to Morgantown for the first time since 2005. West Virginia has yet to beat an FBS team this year as they lost to Maryland 30-24 two weeks ago, getting outplayed in the process. The fact WVU won 66-0 last week means next to nothing as they played an FCS school. These schools haven’t met since 2017, but the Hokies hold a 15-5 ATS edge going back to 1987 and haven’t lost to the Mountaineers since 2003. When an unranked team is favored by three points or less over a Top 15 opponent, go ahead and fade the chalk as they are just 8-18-2 ATS in that situation the past 20 years. West Virginia running back Leddie Brown is averaging just 3.3 yards/carry so far and will struggle to find space against Fuente’s defense. Virginia Tech has lost only once with Braxton Burmeister, now a junior, as the starting QB. We will gladly take the points and expect an outright win. Play on VIRGINIA TECH AAA |
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09-17-21 | Central Florida v. Louisville OVER 66.5 | Top | 35-42 | Win | 100 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER This is not a great spot for the Louisville Cardinals. It is their third game in 12 days and they will be facing a UCF offense that is averaging 49.5 points and 622 yards per game. Both those numbers are second best in the country. Louisville has already allowed 43 points in a loss to Ole Miss this year. They only gave up three points last week, but that was against a FCS team, Eastern Kentucky. Given the schedule and the offense the Cardinals will face, they are very likely to give up a ton of points Friday night. Yes, UCF also played a FCS school last week. But they also put up almost 600 yards in the opener against Boise State. They put up 671 against Bethune-Cookman last week. This is a program that’s impressed us for years. They also apparently impressed the Big 12 Conference because that’s where the Golden Knights are headed, perhaps as early as 2023. QB Dillon Gabriel is 11th in the country in passing yards. Coach Gus Malzahn was a winner at Auburn and should get off to a 3-0 start in his first season here. Louisville gave up 569 yards to an Ole Miss offense that is pretty similar to what UCF runs. Rather than lay the points on the road, we’re more confident in this game going Over.. The Knights are 7-0 Over their previous seven September games. Louisville is 6-0 Over after its last six straight up victories. The Cardinals are certainly capable of scoring 30 or more points this week. They’ve scored 56 in the last six quarters. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-16-21 | Giants v. Washington Football Team UNDER 40.5 | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -101 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER You’ve got a Giants team that’s 13-3-1 to the Under since the start of the 2020 season. That’s the highest Under percentage in the league over that time. They COULD be without starting running back Saquon Barkley Thursday night as it's a short week and Barkley is still recovering from ACL surgery. No matter as the Giants only scored 13 points with him in the lineup last week against Denver. And that was at home. The Giants were 31st in league last year, ahead of only the Jets, averaging 17.5 points/game. The Under is 8-0 the last eight times New York has been an underdog and 7-0 the last seven years (for them) in Week 2. It’s also 20-8 the past 28 times they’ve taken on Washington. The Football Team is already on its backup quarterback with Taylor Heinicke replacing the injured Ryan Fitzpatrick. Heinicke did play a decent amount in last week’s 20-16 loss to the Chargers. So Washington also failed to score 20 points in Week 1. That shouldn’t be surprising. Last season’s average total number of points scored in Washington games was 42.3. The only team whose games averaged fewer points was (you guessed it) the Giants at 39.8. So this total is not too low. The Under is 10-1 in Washington’s last 11 games on grass. They have a good defense. One more trend to close - the Giants are 6-0 Under coming off a double digit loss at home. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-16-21 | Ohio v. UL-Lafayette -20 | Top | 14-49 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LOUISIANA Ohio U looks to be in major trouble in Tim Albin’s first year at the helm. The Bobcats will take an 0-2 record to Lafayette, Louisiana as they take on the 1-1 Ragin Cajuns Thursday night at Cajun Field. Louisiana began the year ranked #23, but lost to Texas 38-18 in the opening game. That score has since gotten a bit more embarrassing with the Longhorns getting blown out at Arkansas last week. But that wasn’t the Ragin Cajuns’ fault. Now it also doesn’t look good that they could only beat Nicholls State by a field goal last week. But that final score was misleading in the sense that the Ragin Cajuns led by 17 with just over five minutes to go. This is a team that has won 22 of its previous 27 games. They are in a much better place now than Ohio. New coach Albin saw his team lose the opener at home to Syracuse by a score of 29-9. Then the Bobcats were stuffed on a two-point conversion attempt at the end of the game last week against Duquesne. That’s a home loss to a FCS foe where they were 28.5 point favorites. Not only that, the Bobcats were outgained and trailed by double digits in the fourth quarter. Albin took over on somewhat short notice when Frank Solich surprisingly announced his retirement over the summer. Ohio is usually one of the better MAC teams but is clearly prepared to take a step back this year. Louisiana wins big here. Play on LOUISIANA AAA |
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09-13-21 | Ravens v. Raiders OVER 50 | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 22 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Baltimore has a habit of getting the season off to a great start as they’ve covered five straight Week 1 games. They’ve scored 38 or more points each of the last three openers. Lamar Jackson has accounted for eight touchdowns the last two years in Week 1, the most by any player in the league. The Las Vegas defense really struggled in ‘20 giving up the second most touchdowns in the NFL. It worked out to 30.8 points/game allowed. The absolutely terrible injury bug that has bitten Baltimore’s running backs would be a bigger deal if they didn’t have Jackson. But they do. Look for Jackson to hook up with TE Mark Andrews, who had seven touchdowns over the final seven regular season games of last year. One injury on the defensive side of the ball, to CB Peters, may be a bigger deal here for Baltimore. That’s because the Raiders averaged 27.1 points/game themselves last year. That’s an almost identical number to what the Ravens averaged offensively. So it’s no surprise the Over was 13-3 in all Las Vegas games in the 2020 season. Seven of the eight home games went Over including all six where they were an underdog. They ended 2020 on a 5-0 Over run. The last five times they’ve played Baltimore, the game has gone Over. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-12-21 | Bears v. Rams UNDER 46.5 | Top | 14-34 | Loss | -104 | 47 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 9* on UNDER For the fourth straight year, Chicago and Los Angeles will be facing off in primetime. The previous three installments have all been low-scoring games (Under 3-0) and seen an average of just 26.3 points/game scored. The quarterbacks will be different this time around, but we think the end result (a low-scoring game) will remain the same. Andy Dalton starting for the Bears is a mistake and we don’t fear him at all going against what was the league’s #1 ranked scoring defense last year. Not only did the Rams allow the fewest points/game (18.5), they also allowed the fewest number of yards. In the last three meetings vs. the Rams, Matt Nagy’s offense has scored just 32 points and never topped 15. Jared Goff is the new starter in LA and while he’s going to be better than Jared Goff was, the loss of RB Cam Akers to a season-ending injury does loom large. The Under was 8-0 in Rams’ home games during the 2020 season as there was an average of only 34.3 total points/game scored. This total looks way too high for the first week of the regular season considering the head to head history and Dalton facing what was the top-ranked defense in the league last year. It wasn’t just last year; the Under is 14-3 in the Rams’ last 17 home games. Chicago is 13-5 Under its last 18 games as a road underdog. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-12-21 | Packers -173 v. Saints | Top | 3-38 | Loss | -173 | 43 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 6* on GB (money line) This line has been all over the place. New Orleans opened as a three-point favorite over the summer. But that was when there was some uncertainty over Aaron Rodgers’ future in Green Bay. Once Rodgers made his presence felt in Packers’ camp, then the line flipped and Green Bay became a three-point favorite. It has since moved up even further with the game being moved to Jacksonville due to Hurricane Ida. Losing a home game is terrible for the Saints. Already, they are faced with no Drew Brees for the first time in over a decade. The Saints are quite likely to take a bit of a tumble down the standings as a result. We’ve never been fans of his replacement, Jameis Winston. There are nine other new starters for this year. There were a total of 57 starts lost on defense. Winston does not have the kind of depth at receiver to work with that Brees enjoyed. This just isn’t going to be the same Saints team that you are used to seeing. As long as Green Bay has Rodgers, they are fine. They’ve won six of seven games under Matt LaFleur in the month of September. They’ve won 13 games each of the last two seasons. We prefer the moneyline route as we’d rather not lay points in this unique circumstance. But we are confident in Green Bay winning. The Saints only played two preseason games because of Ida. Play on GREEN BAY (MONEYLINE) AAA |
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09-12-21 | Cardinals +3 v. Titans | Top | 38-13 | Win | 100 | 39 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA Arizona was 8-8 last season. So they were the definition of mediocre. It was an unpleasant end to the campaign as the Cardinals lost their final three games, which cost them a playoff opportunity. QB Kyler Murray was hampered by an injury down the stretch. He’s back and ready to go this year. Murray and the Arizona offense couldn’t have asked for a much more favorable matchup in Week 1. This Tennessee defense was bad in 2020. It ranked 24th in scoring, 29th against the pass and 28th in total yardage. Healthy again and able to use his legs, Murray should do very well in this game. There were eight times last season where the Titans allowed 30 points or more. For much of the year, opposing offenses were converting at almost a 60 percent clip on third downs. The Titans still made the playoffs (11-5) thanks to the offense, which added Julio Jones for 2021. But don’t look for Tennessee to score many more points than they did last year. Can they really top over 30 points/game at home? Jones and QB Tannehill had limited reps together in training camp. Derrick Henry is coming off a heavy 2020 workload. They also lost coordinator Arthur Smith, who took the head coaching job at Atlanta. Early start times have not bothered the Cardinals in the past as they are 6-3 ATS in games played at 1 PM ET under Kliff Kingsbury. The Titans may look better on paper heading into 2021, but we’re not convinced they are actually better this year. Arizona does look better. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
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09-12-21 | 49ers -7.5 v. Lions | Top | 41-33 | Win | 100 | 39 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SF San Francisco is the pick of most to be the most improved team in the league. They have a win total of 10.5 after going 6-10 last year. Now there’s a 17th regular season game added. But a five-win improvement is a big deal in this league. It’s certainly possible seeing as the 49ers won 13 games two years ago and made it to the Super Bowl. Will they get back to that level again for Kyle Shanahan? That remains to be seen. But you know which team won’t be in the Super Bowl in February? The Lions. They’ve never been in one, joining the Browns, Jaguars and Texans as the only franchises to never make it to the final game. Even by Lions’ standards, this team looks bad. It’s been pegged for five wins in Dan Campbell’s debut season. Matt Stafford is gone, off to LA, and his replacement (Jared Goff) is a clear downgrade. The defense was one of the worst in the league a season ago. Campbell is going to work to improve that side of the ball, but it’s going to take time. The 49ers like to run the ball and should not encounter much resistance in this one as the Lions were very poor at stopping the run last year. San Francisco has won 15 of the previous 17 encounters with Detroit. The fact they are a sizable road favorite could be head-turning for a few folks, but the Lions really are bad. They only won five games last year and four of those were by less than five points. There’s been no position that was clearly upgraded in the offseason. San Francisco fell to six wins because of poor health as multiple stars were lost to season ending injuries. The team is healthy for 2021 and Jimmy G is going to have a big passing day here. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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09-12-21 | 49ers v. Lions OVER 45 | Top | 41-33 | Win | 100 | 39 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER We like the Over in 49ers-Lions game as well. We already went through how easily the Niners should be able to move the ball in this one. Well, let’s now throw in the fact that the last 10 Lions season openers have all gone Over the total. Their offense should score enough to make it 11 in a row. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-11-21 | Stanford +17.5 v. USC | Top | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 24 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on STANFORD Stanford’s first game didn’t go so well. The Cardinal lost 24-7 at Kansas State as three-point underdogs. The offense didn’t do much and the defense was consistently put in poor positions. The loss leaves David Shaw just 8-11 straight up and 6-13 against the spread in his last 19 games. The Cardinal are just 3-8 SU/ATS as underdogs during that time. But they hope for better results this week when they open the Pac 12 schedule “after dark” against USC. The Trojans were 30-7 winners over San Jose State in Week 1. While the offense had some red zone breakdowns, the defense helped them out by forcing some early turnovers. This is a lot of points to lay in a conference game, especially one so early in the season. In their last 25 games as a double digit favorite, Southern Cal is 11-13-1 against the spread and five of the victories on the field have been by five points or less. It’s not hard to see them “playing down” to the level of competition following a 23-point victory last week. Total yardage with San Jose State was pretty even. Stanford knows the USC coaching staff well. Shaw is making a QB change to Tanner McKee, who was better after coming on in relief of Jack West against Kansas State. The teams didn’t play last year but Stanford has covered five of the last seven matchups. Play on STANFORD AAA |
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09-11-21 | Texas -7 v. Arkansas | Top | 21-40 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TEXAS Arkansas has done a good job at covering the spread when they are the underdog. They are 10-3 against the spread the last 13 times they’ve gotten points from the oddsmakers. Three different times last year, the Razorbacks went into a game as the dog and walked away with an outright win. But this is Texas they are facing in Week 2. The Longhorns won by 20 last week (38-18) over a Louisiana team that was ranked #23. They never trailed. Now the ‘Horns are up to #15 themselves. Don’t think for a second they won’t be looking to make a statement here against their old SWC - and future SEC rival. Arkansas was not nearly as impressive in Week 1 as they trailed Rice at halftime before going on a 21-0 run in the fourth quarter. Each of those three fourth quarter touchdowns were off Rice turnovers. Texas is not going to be in such a giving mood. KJ Jefferson and the Hogs' passing game really struggled last week. They gained only 128 yards through the air. Arkansas isn’t going to be able to run the ball here like they did in the first game. The Texas’ defense gave up just 76 yards rushing to Louisiana - on 29 carries. Their offense also looked good. RB Robinson is one of the very best in the country. The Razorbacks will struggle to stop him and won’t be forcing the same number of turnovers they did vs. Rice. Texas has covered five straight on the non-conference slate and is also 4-1 ATS their last five times as a road favorite. Arkansas is 0-8 ATS the previous eight times they have been off a win of more than 20 points. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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09-11-21 | Ball State v. Penn State UNDER 58 | Top | 13-44 | Win | 100 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 9* on UNDER Penn State may not see a better defense all season than the one they faced last week. The fact the Nittany Lions went to Wisconsin and won 16-10 bodes really well for James Franklin and this season. But PSU did only gain 11 first downs for the game and needed a +3 turnover margin to win in Madison. They had the ball for just over 17 minutes. They will do better offensively this week against Ball State, who was a 31-21 winner last week over Western Illinois, but count on this being another low-scoring affair for the Nittany Lions. Not just because of their question marks on offense, but they also happen to have a pretty great defense in Happy Valley these days. Ball State just isn’t going to do much scoring Saturday in Beaver Stadium. The Cardinals’ only hope in this game is that Penn State is looking ahead to Auburn next week. Being in the middle of a Wisconsin-Auburn sandwich does somewhat work to BSU’s favor. It’s an experienced team out of Muncie, one that won the MAC Championship Game last December. We actually believe they can hang around … for a while. If we’re right about that, it probably means it’s a low scoring game. The Under is 6-0 in Ball State’s previous six games vs. Big Ten competition. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-11-21 | Wyoming -7 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 50-43 | Push | 0 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WYOMING Don’t overreact too much to Northern Illinois’ upset win at Georgia Tech last week. Though the Huskies came out ahead by a point in a contest where they were 19-point underdogs, they gained fewer yards than they gave up and needed a late touchdown plus two-point conversion to seal the upset. This is a team that didn’t win a single game in 2020 (0-6 SU). They were also fortunate that Georgia Tech lost its starting quarterback in the second quarter. Backup Jordan Yates led three touchdown drives against the NIU defense. So look for Wyoming to move the ball more effectively than they did last week vs. Montana State when they also needed a last-minute touchdown to get the victory. Northern Illinois did give up 286 yards rushing to Georgia Tech last week. Wyoming has an excellent running back in Xazavian Valladay, who figure to get more carries this week. We think it is worth noting that while Northern Illinois was a 19-point underdog last week, Wyoming was a 19-point favorite. This game is in DeKalb, but the line is too short in our estimation. The road team has covered the last six times it has been off an ATS loss. Should be a double digit win for the Cowboys on Saturday. Lay it! Play on WYOMING AAA |
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09-11-21 | Illinois v. Virginia OVER 55 | Top | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Illinois was so kind to us in their first game when they upset Nebraska 30-22 as a 6.5-point underdog. We did not take them a second time when they faced UTSA last week. The Illini did score 30 points again. But this time the defense allowed 37. They gave up almost 500 yards at home. The defense figures to be tested again this week as it goes to Charlottesville to take on a Virginia team that’s won nine straight non-conference home games. The Cavaliers also just so happened to score 43 points in their first game. While it was against William & Mary, the fact the Hoos gained well over 500 yards is worth something. Nine different receivers caught a pass. "There's appearing to be the makings of a pretty diverse offense with a lot of different opportunities, with room to grow on the execution," UVA coach Bronco Mendenhall said. On the flip side, it’s very impressive to see Illinois score 60 points in two games with a backup quarterback. Sitkowski will start Saturday, but we could see Brandon Peters for the first time since the opening game. The Over is 10-4 in Illinois’ last 14 games after an ATS loss. Not only is the Over 10-2 in Virginia’s last 12 home games, it is 27-11-1 the last 38 times they’ve been favored. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-10-21 | UTEP +26 v. Boise State | Top | 13-54 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UTEP UTEP is already 2-0 on the young season. Now those wins were against New Mexico State and Bethune Cookman, the worst FBS team and a FCS team. But at last the Miners have some confidence as they travel to the blue turf in Boise, ID Friday night. Boise State’s season began with a painful 36-31 loss at UCF last Thursday. It was a game the Broncos led much of the way, including 21-0 early in the second quarter. They got an early 100-yard pick-six to start the scoring and it wasn’t until late in the third quarter that they fell behind. But the Broncos were outgained significantly, 573-283, and if you take away the pick-six then really the game wouldn’t have been that competitive. UTEP isn’t Central Florida, but should be able to move the ball enough to stay within the huge number tonight. This is easily Dana Dimel’s best team in his four year in El Paso and his most experienced. The Miners had just five wins his first three years, three of those coming last season. Now they are off to a 2-0 start and building confidence. Boise State has a new coach in Andy Avalos while coming off their worst offensive season in 25 years. Blowing a three touchdown lead on the road last week did not do wonders for the Broncos’ confidence. They gained just 59 total yards in the second half. UTEP has good wide receivers and should be able to attack a suspect secondary. We are taking the points in this matchup. Play on UTEP AAA |
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09-09-21 | Cowboys v. Bucs OVER 51.5 | Top | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 28 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER You surely remember how Tampa Bay’s 2020 season ended. A 31-9 thrashing of Kansas City in Super Bowl LV has to rank among the peak accomplishments of Tom Brady’s career and think of the ground that covers. Every starter from the Bucs’ Super Bowl winning team - on both offense and defense - returns for the 2021 season. That has never happened for a SB winning team in the salary cap era. An even more frightening proposition is that Brady was playing with an injured knee last season and still threw for 50 touchdowns in the regular season & playoffs. He’s had offseason surgery to fix the knee issue and also has had an additional year to further grasp Bruce Arians’ offense. The Cowboys, coming off a 6-10 SU campaign, do not have the defense to stop the Buccaneers. They gave up 29.6 points/game last year. While Jerry Jones sought to address the defensive concerns via the Draft, we don’t think you are going to see automatic improvement on that side of the ball, right off the bat. We do think you’ll see the Cowboys’ offense be good again now that Dak Prescott is set to return from an ankle injury that cost him most of the 2020 season. Even with RG Martin possibly missing Thursday’s game, the offensive line is one of the league’s best. RB Elliott should have a bounce back year and we like the receivers. The Over has hit in 8 of the last 10 games where Tampa Bay has been a home favorite. Dallas is 4-0 Over its last four tries as an underdog. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-06-21 | Louisville v. Ole Miss OVER 75 | Top | 24-43 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Should be a ton of points in this one. Ole Miss led the SEC in rushing last season. They also have one of the top QBs in the nation, Matt Corral. We know they won’t have Lane Kiffin (COVID-19), but the personnel is strong enough to overcome the absence of the coach. Now the Rebels defense is a different story. They gave up the most yards, not just in the SEC but in the entire country! Louisville’s offense should revert back to 2019 when QB Cunningham had 22 touchdowns and just five interceptions. This is his third year as the starter. Cunningham will have a big game here, if only because he HAS to. Corral led FBS in total yards per game last year. Mississippi games were insanely high scoring. They went over 40 points five times in 2020. But they also gave up more than 40 five different times. This game certainly has the potential to see both teams go for 40-plus. Five teams gained 500 yards against the Rebels last year. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-05-21 | Notre Dame -7 v. Florida State | Top | 41-38 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ND Notre Dame beat Florida State last season 42-26. The Fighting Irish failed to cover though as they were massive 21-point favorites in South Bend. Now they are set to invade Tallahassee for the first time since 2014. We know the Irish have their doubters heading into the season and people want to believe in FSU. But ND has gone 33-5 straight up the past three seasons. Florida State is just 14-20. The gap between the two storied programs isn’t as tight as these odds seem to indicate. Keep in mind that it’s been an absolutely wretched weekend so far for the ACC with Clemson and North Carolina both losing and Miami getting crushed by Bama. Florida State isn’t one of the better ACC teams and hasn’t been in awhile. They’ve got major question marks on both sides of the ball. The defense allowed almost 200 yards rushing per game in 2020. On offense, no starting QB has been announced. FSU beat only two FBS teams last year. Notre Dame was in the CFP. Jack Coan, who transferred over from Wisconsin to be the Fighting Irish’s new QB, is 12-6 SU in his collegiate career as a starter. Notre Dame is by far the more talented of these two teams. Play on NOTRE DAME AAA |
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09-04-21 | LSU -2.5 v. UCLA | Top | 27-38 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LSU UCLA has a game under its belt. Chip Kelly probably couldn’t have asked for it to go any better. His Bruins jumped out to a 24-3 lead after the first quarter and never looked back. It ended up 44-10 when all was said and done. The key was a Hawaii implosion. The Warriors unsuccessfully went for it on fourth down on their very first possession. That led to a quick UCLA field goal. Later in the quarter was a fumble deep in Hawaii’s own territory. The Bruins immediately cashed that one in for a TD. In the fourth quarter, with the game already out of reach, the Bruins recovered a blocked punt in the end zone. Don’t expect #16 LSU to be as giving. After winning a National Championship in 2019, the Tigers fell back down to Earth with a 5-5 record last season. Like UCLA, LSU should bounce back from a disappointing season. The defensive line has far more depth. It took almost the whole year, but in the third to last game of last year, Ed Orgeron finally found his QB. It’s Max Johnson, now a sophomore, who led the Tigers to wins in the final two games. The LSU offense put up 37 and 53 points in those two wins. Lost in the final score of last week is that UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson completed just half of his passes for 130 yards. That won’t come close to cutting it here. LSU was able to escape Irma and practiced in Houston during the week. They’ll be on the West Coast to practice by Friday. Play on LSU AAA |
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09-04-21 | Georgia v. Clemson OVER 51 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 15 m | Show |
THis is a 10* on OVER The marquee game on Saturday pits #5 Georgia against #3 Clemson. This game takes place in Charlotte where Clemson has won six straight times, five of those being for the ACC Championship. So they’ve got a bit of a “home field” advantage, though we’re sure they’d prefer this game to take place in Death Valley. You also might think that the Tigers wish they still had Trevor Lawrence at QB. But his replacement D.J. Uiagalelei threw for 439 yards last year against Notre Dame,a game Clemson lost but still put up 40 points. So don’t think for a second that this Clemson offense is going to struggle much to score points with Lawrence off to the NFL. JT Daniels is the Georgia QB and threw for 10 touchdowns over the final four games of last year. The Dawgs’ offensive backfield is even more talented when accounting for the loaded running back position. Both programs may be known for defense, but the coaches know it’s going to take plenty of points to win this one. Asking both offenses to top 25 points doesn’t seem like asking for too much? Georgia went Over in six of its last seven regular season games. There was only one game last year where they failed to hit 24. Clemson never scored fewer than 28 in any game during 2020. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-04-21 | Marshall v. Navy UNDER 48 | Top | 49-7 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER This is going to be an ugly, low-scoring contest. Navy scored only 13 points in the final three games of 2020. They go up against a Marshall defense that not only had an entire offseason to prepare for the triple option, but also led the country in stopping the run last year. The Thundering Herd allowed just 96 yards/game on the ground in what was largely a successful campaign. They were also #1 in the country in scoring defense. But the Thundering Herd finished 7-3 (started 7-0) due in large part to their own offensive ineptitude. They were shut out by Rice, scored only 13 in the C-USA Championship vs. UAB and then only 10 in a bowl loss to Buffalo. This is an offense that put up 20 points or less in half of its games. All the big point totals came against really weak opponents. Navy’s defense has all of its starters from last year back and will be stout. The last three games of 2020 saw them hold every opponent to less than 300 total yards, a first for the program going back to 1997. But back to the Navy offense for a second. They are off their least productive year on the ground in over a quarter century. Marshall’s D allowed more than 17 points in just one game last year! Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-04-21 | Fresno State v. Oregon -20 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OREGON Oregon will have to be careful here as they’ve got a date with Ohio State next week. Fresno State played a game last week. They crushed UConn 45-0. But you don’t need us to tell you that Oregon is a big step up from a team that didn’t even play competitive football in 2020. The Ducks are ranked #11 in the country. They’ve won the Pac 12 each of the last two seasons. Fresno State has not faced a ranked opponent since the 2018 season. The Bulldogs will have plenty of difficulty stopping the run this week as Oregon’s RB duo of Verdell and Dye have 4,363 career yards rushing between them. That’s the most returning yards of any backfield in the country. The offensive line that they’ll be running behind is experienced. Oregon has won its last 12 games at Autzen Stadium and 26 home games in a row when facing a non-conference foe. Don’t look past the fact that Fresno State’s QB had to leave last week’s game with cramping in the third quarter. Oregon may have the best edge rusher in the nation in Kayvon Thibodeaux. Not even having to lay three touchdowns at Autzen seems like a steal to us. The Ducks are going to be very good this season and haven’t lost to Fresno State since 1982. Play on OREGON AAA |
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09-03-21 | Michigan State v. Northwestern -155 | Top | 38-21 | Loss | -155 | 79 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on N'western ML The underdog has won this Big 10 matchup four of the last five years, and five of the last seven. Last November it was Michigan State pulling a 29-20 upset in East Lansing - as a 13.5 point underdog - one of only two wins Sparty had all last season. Northwestern entered that game 5-0 and was ranked #8 in the country at the time. It was a wild game that saw MSU first jump out to a 17-0 lead, only to then fall behind 20-17. Things got real wild late as two Northwestern turnovers led to Michigan State field goals. The Spartans formally put the game away with a fumble return for a TD on the final play. We think Northwestern, despite pretty significant roster turnover, will avenge one of its two defeats from a year ago. We don’t want to lay the points though. Rather, take the Wildcats on the money line Friday night in Evanston. They won all four games at Ryan Field last season. Michigan State is 2-5 straight up in its last seven road games. Mel Tucker has a lot of question marks on both sides of the ball entering his second season as the head coach. Pat Fitzgerald always has a good defense at Northwestern. With MSU having questions at quarterback, the Wildcats won’t give up many points and they’ll win. Play NORTHWESTERN (money line) AAA |
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09-03-21 | Old Dominion v. Wake Forest UNDER 64 | Top | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 77 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Old Dominion took the 2020 season off so this is our first look at the program since November 30th, 2019 when they lost to Charlotte 38-22. The Monarchs have not won a College Football game since August 31st of 2019 against Norfolk State. Their last win over an FBS opponent was on November 10, 2018 over North Texas. The last time ODU beat a FBS team by more than three points was September 22, 2018 when they beat a Virginia Tech team that was ranked 13th in the country at the time! So we shouldn’t expect much from them in the 2021 season opener vs. Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons struggled defensively in 2020, but we aren’t expecting much from the Monarchs’ offense in this first game. Another key is offseason injuries with the Wake Forest offense. Now they will still put up points, led by QB Hartman. Just not enough to get this one Over the total. We just don’t expect ODU to score much. Wake would have to exceed 45 points for the Over to even have a chance here. In the first game of the season, we’re not seeing them score that many. Only two of the top nine receivers from the 2019 team are back. Another team that took 2020 off - UConn - was blanked in its 2021 opener last weekend. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-02-21 | Ohio State -13.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 45-31 | Win | 100 | 54 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OHIO STATE Ohio State owns the Big Ten in much the same way Clemson owns the Atlantic Coast Conference. Over the last nine seasons, the Buckeyes have won 74 of 79 conference games. They are an obvious favorite to win the league again in 2021. They will be breaking in a new quarterback, CJ Stroud, who replaces Justin Fields. We don’t think that’s going to be a problem. Stroud has Ryan Day calling the plays and the best set of receivers in the country to throw to. You’ve got Master Teague and TreVeyon Henderson at running back. The Buckeyes averaged over 500 yards and 40 points per game last season. They’ll probably do it again this year. Making life even scarier for the rest of the Big 10 is the likely improvement of the Buckeyes' defense from last year. They weren’t particularly good against the pass, but the secondary now has more experience. Minnesota only has the seventh best odds of winning the conference and it honestly feels as if the gap between 1 and 2 is larger than between 2 and 7. The Golden Gophers were just 3-4 SU last year and really have no hope of winning this game. The last time they beat Ohio State was in the year 2000 and that’s the only win in the series since 1981. Ohio State has not lost a season opener this century and have covered six of the last eight times they’ve been road favorites. Minnesota is not Alabama, the team the Buckeyes lost to in the CFP Championship Game. They are a Big 10 opponent and that means you should expect a big OSU win. Play on OHIO STATE AAA |
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09-02-21 | South Florida +19 v. NC State | Top | 0-45 | Loss | -118 | 53 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on USF South Florida comes into Thursday’s opener against North Carolina State as a big underdog. But we think the Bulls are getting far too many points here. NC State did go 8-4 last year. But they were 4-8 the year before that. They were 8-4 in 2020 despite scoring only 13 more points than they allowed. The Wolfpack were also underdogs in over half of last year’s games. They were favored by double digits only twice and covered just one. We know there’s a decent amount of returning starters for Dave Doeren. However, this is simply not a team we’re interested in laying a lot of points with, especially in the first game. Jeff Scott may not have had a great first year at USF, going just 1-8, but his Bulls covered five times. Two of the losses were within a field goal. The defense will be better this year (how could it not?) and nine transfers were added via the portal. Do we think the Bulls can win this game? Absolutely not. But NC State seems overvalued. Grab the points. Play on SOUTH FLORIDA AAA |
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08-28-21 | Nebraska v. Illinois +7 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 66 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ILLINOIS Betting this number early feels good, but we still feel very confident in Illinois plus the points in the Big 10 opener. Brett Bielema inherited a team that really didn’t do much under Lovie Smith. The Fighting Illini project to be the last place team in the Big 10 West this year, but they should be more competitive under Bielema. They beat Nebraska last season 41-23 as 17-point underdogs. Now the Cornhuskers are facing potential NCAA sanctions before the 2021 season even starts. The threat of sanctions puts already embattled head coach Scott Frost even more squarely on the hot seat. The ‘Huskers were only 3-5 a year ago. Just one win was by more than seven points. The program is 5-11 ATS as a favorite under Frost. Overall they’ve won only 12 of 32 games straight up. So to lay points with them on the conference road, in the first game of the season, seems foolish. QB Martinez has been far too inconsistent throughout his career. The defense gave up 29.4 points/game in 2020. Illinois has 18 starters back and you should look for the defensive front seven to be much improved. Gotta grab the points in this one. Play on ILLINOIS AAA |
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02-07-21 | Chiefs -3 v. Bucs | Top | 9-31 | Loss | -113 | 287 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KC Kansas City is the favorite to win Super Bowl 55, but perhaps you’ve heard that the sportsbooks have more “liability” on Tampa Bay winning here. Once they acquired Tom Brady, the Buccaneers were quite the popular bet to win it all. Now here they are facing last year’s SB champs. The favored team has won 35 of the previous 54 Super Bowls and are 3-1 ATS the last four (and 2-0 ATS L2). The AFC team has won and covered five of the last six. Now none of this guarantees the Chiefs will repeat. Nor does the fact Patrick Mahomes is 27-13-1 ATS in his career when he’s NOT a double digit favorite. But, to us, all signs point to the Chiefs winning and covering this game. They already beat the Bucs once this season, 27-24, back on November 29th. They didn’t cover, but this spread is now lower. Also that regular season score is a little misleading. Kansas City led 17-0 after one quarter and 27-10 going into the fourth. They put up 543 yards on this Bucs defense, which now has two injured safeties coming out of the NFC Championship Game. The Chiefs might only be 8-10 ATS this season, but they are 5-0 ATS when the spread is three points or less. Andy Reid is 18-9 ATS in his head coaching career when he has at least 13 days between games. Tampa Bay’s last two wins have seen them heavily rely on turnovers. The Chiefs offense averaged almost seven yards per play in the AFC Championship Game. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA |
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01-24-21 | Bills v. Chiefs OVER 54 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 75 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The big question this week is whether or not Patrick Mahomes is going to play. He left the Divisional Round win over Cleveland with a concussion. Mahomes was practicing again Friday after taking almost all the snaps in practice on Wednesday and Thursday. So it sure does look like he’s going to be the man under center for the Chiefs Sunday as they face the Buffalo Bills in a rematch from Week 6 of the regular season. Kansas City won in Buffalo, 26-17, in what was a hastily rescheduled game played on a Monday night. Since that time, the Bills have been beaten just once in 12 games and that came on the “Hail Murray” vs. Arizona. With or without Mahomes in there (we expect him to play), expect this game to be higher scoring than the one from the regular season. The Bills are averaging 30.3 points/game this year while the Chiefs are at 29.1. Last week was not indicative of what we’re used to seeing from either offense. KC ran for a season-best 245 yards against Buffalo the first time. Meanwhile, Buffalo is as pass happy as it gets.The Chiefs defense is the worst in the league in the red zone, so expect the Bills to score touchdowns, not field goals, when they get there. The Over is 12-5-1 in Bills games this season, one of the higher percentages in the league. Play on OVER AAA |
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01-24-21 | Bucs v. Packers -3 | Top | 31-26 | Loss | -125 | 71 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 7* on GREEN BAY We’ve backed Green Bay pretty religiously this season, including playing them in one form or another each of the last three games. They’ve won all three games by at least 14 points, so we’re doing well. Therefore, we can’t deviate from the script here in the NFC Championship vs. Tampa Bay. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense rightly get all the headlines for averaging 33.2 points during a seven-game win streak. But don’t discount a defense that has held five of its last six opponents to 18 points or less. The Pack’s only loss in the L10 games was at Indianapolis where they held a 2 TD lead at halftime. Now they look to avenge one of their other two regular season defeats, and it was the worst one, 38-10 at Tampa Bay. That loss came after a bye and Rodgers threw two interceptions, which is something that almost never happens. One of them was returned for a touchdown and the other set the Bucs up at the 2-yard line for another easy score. This time the game is in Lambeau where GB has outscored teams by 12.4 points/game this year. Remember that the Packers just put up 32 points last week on a Rams defense that was considered to be the best in the league. They’ve had one more day of rest than has Tampa Bay, whose win over New Orleans should be credited to a +4 turnover differential. Rodgers takes better care of the football this time and goes on to his second Super Bowl. AAA |