Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-09-22 | Michael Johnson v. Jamie Mullarkey UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
8* Under Michael Johnson/Jamie Mullarkey (9:10 ET): This fight is the opener on the main card, in the Lightweight Division (155 lbs) and scheduled for three rounds. I do not see it making it to the scorecards. Playing the Under, we need the fight to end prior to the midway point of round three. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if things didn’t even make it to the third round. Johnson comes in with a 20-13 career record, including 12-13 in the UFC. It’s very rare to find a fighter with that many fights under his belt, have losing record and they’re still in the promotion. That said, Johnson is in off a win (by second round knockout) over Alan Patrick back in May. That ended a four-fight losing streak, two of which saw him stopped. There were a lot of decisions early in his career, but 7 of Johnson’s last 11 trips inside the Octagon have NOT rendered the judge’s to make a decision. Then you have Mullarkey, who is 14-5 overall, but just 2-3 in the UFC. His last three fights have ended in the first or second round. There just aren’t many decisions (only 3) on his career resume. Mullarkey was stopped just 46 seconds into the second round in his last fight, by Jalin Turner back in March. He typically eats a LOT of punishment, which isn’t great going into a fight with a heavy hitter the likes of Johnson. Then again, Johnson tends to start allowing a lot of takedowns as the fight wears on, which isn’t good (for him) either. 8* Under Johnson/Mullarkey (2.5 rounds) |
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07-02-22 | Uriah Hall v. Andre Muniz OVER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
10* Over Hall/Muniz (7:00 ET): This middleweight (185 lbs) is scheduled for three rounds and takes place on the early prelims, which you can watch (for free) on ESPN. Uriah Hall comes in with a 17-10 overall record and is 10-8 in the UFC. Andre Muniz has a much more impressive record at 22-4 overall and is 4-0 in the UFC. My best bet for tonight is on this fight making it past the halfway point of the second round. Hall has obviously been around for a while. But this will be his first fight in 11 months. We last saw him on July 31st of last year, losing a unanimous decision to Sean Strickland in what was a five-round affair (it was the main event of that show). That ended a four-fight win streak for Hall, which included some big names. Hall has not been stopped since a 2018 loss to Paulo Costa and the only time in his last six fights that things didn’t progress past the midway point of Round 2 was when Chris Weidman suffered that gruesome, freak leg injury. Muniz, despite the better record, is still below Hall in the MW rankings, so this is a big step up in class. Going back to his pre-UFC days, Muniz has won eight straight fights. Three of his four career losses were more than eight years ago. Now his L3 wins here in the UFC have all been first round stoppages, but as already touched on, this is going to be a tougher test. Muniz’s first UFC win was by decision. This one may not make it all the way to the scorecards, but it will go longer than expected. 10* Over Hall/Muniz |
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06-26-22 | Neil Magny v. Shavkat Rakhmonov OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 33 h 54 m | Show |
7* Over Magny/Rakhmonov (11:50 ET): Second from the top (co-main) on this weekend’s UFC card is a welterweight (170 lbs) bout between veteran Neil Magny and Shavkat Rakhmonov. Magny has been around for awhile, coming into the UFC back in 2012 off “The Ultimate Fighter.” He’s 26-8 overall in his career, including 19-7 in the UFC. Rakhmonov is a rising prospect in the division with a 15-0 overall record after three straight wins to begin his UFC career. I’m betting that this fight goes longer than expected. Magny is actually tied (with Georges St. Pierre) for the most wins EVER as a UFC Welterweight. He brings in a two-fight win streak, having most recently defeated Max Griffin back in March via split decision. While Magny has won five of his last six fights overall, he hasn’t finished any opponent since Craig White back in May of 2018. Each of his last six fights have gone the distance, including a five-rounder. The only time he’s been stopped in the L5 years came in the fourth round. With an 80-inch reach, Magny can stay out of his opponents’ range and he’s got great striking defense. Rakhmonov also has a long reach (77”) and this is a step up in class for him compared to his previous competition. He’s a huge favorite though as none of his 15 professional fights have gone the distance and only one made it out of the second round. However, it is telling that Rakhmonov has never scored multiple takedowns in the same round. While this is mostly because his opponents don’t get up after being hit, Magny won’t be falling into that situation, at least not early on. It would not surprise me at all to see Rakhmonov be taken the distance here for the first time ever. I think it ends up as his longest fight regardless and will play accordingly. 7* Over Magny/Rakhmonov |
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06-18-22 | Tim Means v. Kevin Holland UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 30 h 36 m | Show |
10* Under Means/Holland (8:25 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Welterweight Division (170 lbs). It pits Kevin Holland, a heavy favorite, who is 22-7 overall and 9-4 in the UFC against journeyman Tim Means, whose record is 32-12-1 overall and 14-9 in the UFC. The fight takes place on the main card, third from the top. I do not expect it to go the distance. Certainly, the “safe” bet here would be to take Holland, however the current odds certainly make that difficult. That said, he’s probably going to win this fight inside the distance. Moving down a weight class (Holland is a former MW) seems like a smart career trajectory. Holland’s debut at 170 lbs saw him defeat Alex Oliveira via TKO, just 39 seconds into the second round. His career finish rate now sits at 82% with five of his last six wins coming via stoppage. A massive size edge here (Means is a former lightweight) is a significant advantage for Holland. The thing is, Means does come in on a three-fight win streak and is willing to engage in a wild brawl. That’s why I’m more apt to bet the Under here as opposed to Holland to win, or Holland to win inside the distance. Means’ three-fight win streak has all been by decisions, but prior to that he had four straight fights end via stoppage (three in the first round), win or lose. I just can’t see this fight going the distance, so betting Under 2.5 rounds is the play. To be clear, the fight must end by the midway point of the third round to cash. I think it will. 10* Under Means/Holland. |
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06-11-22 | Ramazan Emeev v. Jack Della Maddalena -151 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 36 h 15 m | Show |
10* Jack Della Maddalena (10:10 ET): This is the opener of the PPV portion of the card, a fight scheduled for three rounds in the Welterweight Division (170 lbs). Della Maddalena is 11-2 overall in his pro career and coming off a successful UFC debut where he defeated Pete Rodriguez by first round TKO back in January. Ramazan Emeev is 20-5 overall and 5-2 in the UFC, but off a loss last October to Danny Roberts. Emeev’s last eight fights have all gone to the scorecards with the last two (a win and a loss) both being incredibly close as they were both split decisions. Emeev is not a particularly exciting fighter as he basically relies on landing a few big punches and then taking control in the clinch. But that wasn’t enough in losses to Roberts and Anthony Rocco Martin, both of whom were able to win on the judges’ scorecards due to more potent offensive flurries. Della Maddalena should be able to do the same to Emeev here. Back on Dana White’s Contenders Series, he was able to stay ahead on the cards due to his striking against Ange Loosa. Della Maddalena has now won 11 consecutive fights and the Rodriguez win was the 10th by stoppage. The Australian is only 25 years old and this is his opportunity to shine on the main card of a big UFC show. Look for him to get the win. 10* Jack Della Maddalena |
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06-11-22 | Steve Garcia -179 v. Hayisaer Maheshate | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -179 | 35 h 15 m | Show |
7* Steve Garcia (8:35 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Lightweight Division (155 lbs). It takes place on the prelims with Garcia (12-4 overall, 1-1 UFC) taking on Maheshate Hayisaer, who is 6-1 in his pro career and will be making his UFC debut. When all is said and done, I expect Garcia to have his hand raised. This play boils down to the fact that Hayisaer really hasn’t fought anybody. He comes in with just wins over opponents that currently have winning records. This is a big step up in competition for him coming off a decision win on Dana White’s Contender Series last November. That decision was earned over Achilles Estremadura where Hayisaer came in as a major underdog. It is hard for me to see him repeating that kind of performance against a much better fighter. Garcia is coming off a TKO over Charlie Ontiveros last October, which is his only fight over the last 2+ years. Having fought better competition throughout his pro career and just being a better overall fighter, Garcia should be a bigger favorite than this on the money line as he’s won five of his last six, the lone loss coming via decision to Luis Pena in Feb of 2020. Garcia fought for Bellator MMA, KO’ing Olympic alternate wrestler Shawn Bunch. Garcia, who moved up from 135 lbs, is still considered a “big” lightweight and his size + experience edge should be the difference in this fight. 7* Steve Garcia |
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06-04-22 | Zarrukh Adashev v. Ode Osbourne -185 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
7* Ode Osbourne (4:35 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s flyweight division.(125 lbs). Osbourne is 10-4 in his career (2-2 in UFC) while Zarrukh Adashev is just 4-3, 1-2. Look for Osbourne to get his hand raised in this one. Osbourne has alternated wins and losses since coming to the UFC. “The Jamaican Sensation” could easily be on a three-fight win streak, however. He was in control at the start against Manel Kape last August, only to get caught with a flying knee. Osbourne rebounded in November with a decision victory over C.J. Vergara. That was the first time in the UFC that an Osbourne fight didn’t end in Round 1. I like what I saw in that last fight as Osbourne was able to set a distance and pick a slower fighter apart. It should be much the same here as Adashev doesn’t exactly throw a ton of volume. Adashev does have some power, but he’s at a reach disadvantage in this fight. Plus Osbourne is the superior wrestler. Adashev did pick up a win, his first in the UFC, in his last fight. But that was 10 months ago. It was by decision over Ryan Benoit. Prior to that, Adashev was 0-2 in the UFC, once losing by knockout in just 32 seconds. Even in the win against Benoit, Adashev clearly tired down the stretch. Whether this goes this distance or not, it will be Osbourne claiming victory. 7* Ode Osbourne |
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05-15-22 | Jan Blachowicz v. Aleksandar Rakic -200 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -200 | 18 h 33 m | Show |
6* Aleksandar Rakic (12:40 AM ET): This is the main event of tonight’s card, scheduled for five rounds in the UFC’s Light Heavyweight division. The winner is likely in line for a future title shot. Rakic is 14-2 overall in his MMA career, including 6-2 in UFC. Jan Blachowicz is 28-9 overall and 11-6 in UFC. To me, this is all about a surging contender (Rakic) against an opponent that’s likely past his prime (Blachowicz). I expect Rakic to get his hand raised here. Rakic suffered his lone UFC loss back in Dec 2019 on a split decision to Volkan Oezdemir. Since then, he’s picked up B2B decision victories, defeating Anthony Smith in August of 2020 and Thiago Santos in March of last year. Both of those opponents were former LHW Title contenders. The only time in his career that Rakic has been stopped was in his very first professional fight, all the way back in 2019. Ten of his 14 wins have been by stoppage. Rakic would seem to have the edge in all phases of this matchup, particularly on the ground. Blachowicz seems to be a pretty “trendy underdog’ here, which makes sense given that he’s a former champion at 205 lbs. But he’s coming off a loss, as he was submitted in the second round by Glover Teixera, to drop the LHW Title. Blachowicz is now 39 years of age and eventually “father time” will catch up with a fighter. I think that time is now for Blachowicz, who should struggle defending Rakic’s aggressive (and more powerful) striking combinations and versatile kicks. The odds tell you all you need to know about this matchup. 6* Aleksander Rakic |
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05-07-22 | Carla Esparza v. Rose Namajunas -205 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -205 | 38 h 51 m | Show |
6* Rose Namajunas (11:59 ET): This is the semi-main event of UFC 274, which means it will go on second to last on the main card. The fight is scheduled for five rounds in the Womens’ Strawweight Division (115lbs) between Champion Rose Namajunas (11-4 overall, 9-3 in UFC) and Challenger Carla Esparza (18-6, 9-4). It is a rematch from 2014, a fight won by Esparza. However, Namajunas is a perfect 4-0 in her career in UFC rematches. I think she gets her hand raised Saturday night. The first fight between these two women determined the first ever UFC Womens’ Strawweight Champion. Esparza won by submission (rear-naked choke) in the third round, however her reign would be a short one as she lost the title in her very first defense (to Joanna Jedrzejczk) and would go on to go just 3-3 over her next six fights. However, Esparza has since turned things around with a five-fight win streak that dates back to 2019. She last fought in May of last year, defeating Xiaonan Yan via TKO in the second round. However, her previous four wins were all by decision and two of them were split. So it’s hardly been a dominant run by the challenger. Namajunas has lost only one time in her last seven fights and that was to Jessica Andrade, a defeat she immediately avenged. She is coming off B2B wins over Weili Zhang, the last of which was a split decision in November. The champ has the edge both in striking and in submissions while wrestling is the challenger’s game. That first fight was so long ago that I put little stock into it at this point as Namajunas is clearly the better fighter now (reflected in the odds). Esparza has never gone longer than three rounds, which means she’s at a disadvantage if this fight goes long. It may not though as Namajunas could easily end this early with her superior striking. 6* Rose Namajunas |
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04-30-22 | Tristan Connelly v. Darren Elkins -170 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
7* Darren Elkins (7:35 ET): This is a fight set for three rounds, on the main card, in the UFC’s Featherweight Division (145 lbs). Elkins is far more battle tested at this level (26-10 overall, 16-9 UFC) than is Connelly (14-7, 1-1) and thus I expect the favorite to get his hand raised in what should end up being an easy victory. Elkins has had a very up and down UFC run, which dates all the way back to 2010. The drop down to featherweight is what led to a five-fight win streak from 2011-13. He’d go on to trade wins and losses in 2014, but then came a career-best six-fight win streak from 2015-18 that brought him to the cusp of title contention. Unfortunately, he’d then go on to lose his next four fights. Back to back finishes over Luiz Eduardo Garagorri and Darrick Minner turned things around though. Elkins is coming off a first round loss to Cub Swanson last December, but this is a drop in class that he should handle. Connelly should in all honesty be 0-2 in the UFC as he was somehow able to withstand an early barrage against Michel Pereira back in 2019 (his debut) and won a decision victory. But then he didn’t fight for nearly two years and lost a decision to Pat Sabatini in April of last year. With just one fight since 2019, it’s difficult to trust Connelly in this spot, especially since his fighting style plays right into Elkins’ hands. 7* Darren Elkins |
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04-30-22 | Gina Mazany -175 v. Shane Young | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -175 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
7* Gina Mazany (4:35 ET): This is a fight set for three rounds, on the prelims, in the UFC’s Women’s Flyweight Division. Mazany is 7-5 overall, but just 2-5 in her UFC career while Young is 7-4 overall and 0 for 2 in the UFC. Clearly, both fighters are in dire need of a victory on Saturday. I believe it will be Mazany getting her hand raised. This is actually Mazany’s second stint with the UFC. Her first saw her lose three of four fights. After rebounding with a first round submission over Valerie Barney for the King of the Cage promotion in early 2020, Mazany found her way back into the UFC in the midst of the pandemic. She promptly lost to Julia Avila, but then picked up a win over Rachael Ostovich in November of 2020. Her only fight since then was a loss (May 2021) to Priscila Cachoeira. While she doesn’t have a great track record of success at this level, what gives Mazany the edge here is that this will be Young’s first time fighting at flyweight (125 lbs). Young was clearly overwhelmed as a bantamweight where she suffered fairly one-sided losses to Macy Chiasson and Stephanie Egger in 2020 and ‘21 respectively. Having fought just one time since Feb 2020 doesn’t help Young’s cause either. What I see happening here is Mazany controlling the fight early with her wrestling, which she’s shown the ability to do previously, then grinding out a decision win. 7* Gina Mazany |
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04-16-22 | Chris Barnett v. Martin Buday -220 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 32 h 13 m | Show |
6* Martin Buday (6:55 ET): This fight takes place in the UFC’s Heavyweight Division. It’s scheduled for three rounds, on the prelims, with Buday (9-1) making his UFC debut against Chris Barnett, who is 22-7 overall in his pro career but just 1-1 in UFC. As you can see, Buday is the big favorite here and I think that’s justified as you should him to get his hand raised Saturday night. Buday is a graduate of Dana White’s “Contenders Series,” so it’s not like he’s new to the UFC radar. The Slovakian known as “Badys” is coming off a 1st round TKO over Lorenzo Hood on DWCS (in October) to get the opportunity here. Buday has won his last eight fights, all by stoppage, five of those coming in the first round. He hasn’t been taken past the second round since 2017. Yet, if this one does go longer than expected, I still expect him to be the better fighter down the stretch. Barnett, who is 5’9” but a massive 264 lbs, comes off a spectacular knockout victory over Gian Villante back in November at UFC 268. That was after being submitted by Ben Rothwell back in May. But when not able to execute short bursts of offense or deliver the one-punh knockout, Barnett is typically at a disadvantage inside the Octagon. Look for Buday to take this one to the mat and use his grappling skills to grind out a decision victory at the very least. Barnett has gone the distance only two times since 2016. 6* Martin Buday |
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02-19-22 | Johnny Walker v. Jon Hill OVER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
10* Over Walker/Hill (8:50 ET): For those less familiar with UFC betting, this is a wager on the # of rounds the fight will go and I’m taking the Over 1.5. That means the fight must make it past the halfway mark of the second round. This is the main event of the evening, pitting two Light Heavyweights, Johnny Walker (18-6 overall, 4-3 in the UFC) against Jamahal Hill (9-1, 3-1). I realize that Walker has a number of first round finishes in his career, but two of his last three fights have gone all the way to the scorecards. That includes his last one, a unanimous decision loss to Thiago Santos. That was a five-round fight, just like this one is. Walker was also beaten by unanimous decision back in March of 2020 by Nikita Krylov. He has a bit of a wild fighting style, but after sustaining two injuries over the last couple of years, you’ve got to wonder how much of the explosiveness is left. Hill did not spend much time in the cage during 2021 as both fights were over before the end of the first round. He suffered his only career loss in June of last year when he was TKO’d by Paul Craig. But then Hill came back and KO’d Jimmy Crute just 48 seconds into their fight in December. Those results are probably why this O/U is set so low, however something to note is that Hill had only two of his first eight fights end in the first round. With this being the main event, look for a bit of a “feeling out process” and this one to go longer than the oddsmakers are expecting. 10* Over Walker/Hill |
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01-23-22 | Cyril Gane -141 v. Francis Ngannou | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -141 | 61 h 55 m | Show |
10* Ciryl Gane (11:25 ET): The main event of UFC 270 is scheduled for five rounds and is for the Heavyweight Title. Champion Francis Ngannou comes in with a 16-3 career record, including 11-2 in the UFC. He won the title last March from Stipe Miocic via second round KO but has yet to defend it (more on that in a moment). Gane, a former training partner of Ngannou now turned foe, is a perfect 10-0 in his career including seven wins here in the UFC. It’s pretty well understood here that Gane is the better technical fighter, but he obviously must be able to withstand/avoid Ngannou’s knockout power. I believe he can. Thus far in his UFC career, Gane has proven himself able to win based on strategy and technique rather than overwhelming power. That said, he did stop Derrick Lewis in August to become interim champion. He’s also grinded out a couple of five-round unanimous decisions over Alexander Volkov and Jairzinho Rozenstruik. So I’m confident in his ability to go the distance to take the title, if needed. The interesting subplot in this fight is that Ngannou’s contract is set to expire afterwards, win or lose. So this could be his last fight for the UFC. He’s obviously been at odds with Dana White for some time now. But if Ngannou retains, then the promotion is basically “stuck” with him for another year. White is probably “rooting” for Gane here and while that doesn’t have any actual bearing on the outcome, I believe we’re due to see a new Heavyweight Champion on this evening. Gane has certainly seen his odds increase leading up to the fight. 10* Ciryl Gane |
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01-15-22 | Jennifer Maia v. Katlyn Chookagian -190 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 26 h 43 m | Show |
8* Katlyn Chookagian (8:00 ET): This is a fight scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Women’s Flyweight Division (125 lbs). It will be the third fight on the main card, which can be watched (for free) on ESPN. Both Chookagian and Jennifer Maia are ranked in the top five, #2 and #4 respectively, and have been beaten by current champ Valentina Shevchenko. This is a rematch of a November 2019 fight, won by Chookagian by unanimous decision. I think she gets her hand raised yet again on Saturday. Since her loss to Shevchenko, Chookagian has gone 3-1 inside the Octagon. She’s coming off B2B wins here, both via decision. The first was over Cynthia Calvillo in Nov 2020 followed by beating Viviane Araujo last May. That leaves her with a 16-4 career record, including 9-4 in the UFC. While both women have improved since the last meeting, it’s Chookagian’s ability to dictate range and edge in speed that still give her the clear edge. She’s also improved her wrestling over the last two years. Maia is 19-7-1 overall in her professional career and 4-3 in the UFC. She got her shot at Shevchenko in November of 2020 and did win in a round on the scorecards, but ultimately lost by unanimous decision. She bounced back with a decision win of her own in July, beating Jessica Eye. But I’m just not sure there’s been enough improvement in her game to expect avenging the previous result against Chookagian. The smaller octagon at the Apex favors the rangier fighter as well. 8* Katlyn Chookagian |
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12-12-21 | Charles Oliveira v. Dustin Poirier -137 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -137 | 33 h 31 m | Show |
8* Dustin Poirier (11:50 ET): This fight is scheduled for five rounds in the UFC’s Lightweight Division (155 lbs). It is for the title with Charles Oliveira (31-8 overall, 19-8 in UFC) defending against Dustin Poirier (28-6, 20-5 UFC). It’s a somewhat “rare” situation in that the challenger is the favorite, but that’s not really surprising here as the champion remains a relative “unknown” while the challenger is off B2B high-profile victories over Conor McGregor. This is one instance of me agreeing with the public sentiment. I cashed in on both Poirier-McGregor fights in 2021. The first time, I had Under 2.5 rounds as Poirier knocked out McGregor at 2:32 in Round 2. For the second go around, I took Poirier and that fight was stopped after the first round due to a gruesome leg injury sustained by McGregor. It’s important to realize that Poirier’s only loss since 2017 was a title fight with Khabib Nurmagomedov, who has since exited the sport at the top of his game. Six of Poirier’s last eight wins have come by stoppage. Oliveira is on a nine-fight win streak, also going back to 2017. All but one of those wins was by stoppage. Obviously, as the champion of the division, Oliveira should not be underestimated. But I don’t think Poirier is going to make that mistake. The challenger will have to stay on his feet, and if he does then the fight will go his way as he’s the significantly better striker. Standing up and striking is clearly Poirier’s best path to victory, whether it’s via stoppage or simply winning rounds on the judge’s scorecards. Also of note is that Oliveira has never had to go longer than three rounds. Ironically, it may be the challenger winning this fight in the so-called “championship rounds.” 8* Dustin Poirier |
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11-13-21 | Marcos Rogerio de Lima v. Ben Rothwell -163 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -163 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
10* Ben Rothwell (5:40 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Heavyweight Division. Rothwell is 39-13 overall in his MMA career (including 9-7 in the UFC) while his opponent, Marcos Rogerio de Lima, has an 18-7-1 overall record and is 7-5 in the UFC. My prediction is that Rothwell will be the one to get his hand raised in this one. A 20-year veteran of the sport, Rothwell saw his career nearly derailed with multiple failed drug tests. He did not fight for nearly three years (April 2016 to March 2019). But he seems to have gotten over the “rough patch” of his career by winning three of his last four fights, including the last one. He defeated Chris Barnett back in May via submission in the second round. Something to note is that Rothwell has not been “stopped” in a fight (submitted or knocked out) since 2013. Most of de Lima’s fights typically end quickly, but the last one saw him earn a decision victory over Maurice Green in May. Going all the way back to 2015, de Lima has alternated wins and losses. He’s 5-5 his L10 fights, never winning or losing two in a row. I don’t like this matchup for de Lima as he won’t be able to knock out Rothwell nor will he be able to wrestle him to the ground. Rothwell is larger and more durable. De Lima spent most of his UFC career fighting down at Light Heavyweight. This is a good matchup for the favorite. 10* Ben Rothwell |
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10-30-21 | Amanda Ribas -150 v. Virna Jandiroba | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
10* Amanda Ribas (1:30 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Women’s Strawweight Division (115 lbs). It takes place on the prelims and can only be viewed if you are a subscriber to ESPN+. Please also note the early start time of this week’s card. This will be the last fight of the prelims. I expect Ribas to get her hand raised. Ribas is coming off a loss, by TKO to Marina Rodriguez back in January. But before that she had been on a five-fight win streak. She’d only lost one time in her career before January’s setback and enters UFC 267 with a 10-2 overall record, including 4-1 in the UFC. The key in this fight will be Ribas staying off her back, which given her excellent takedown defense, should happen. She is the better striker compared to her opponents. I should also note that Ribas had dominated the 1st round of that Rodriguez fight before getting TKO’d in the second. Virna Jandiroba is 17-2 overall in her professional career, including 3-2 in the UFC. She’s coming off a win, which believe it or not was the first time she’d ever prevailed by TKO. It came against Kanako Murata back in June. But it’s a bit of a step up class here and Jandiroba simply isn’t going to be able to get this fight to the ground. Ribas also has a black belt in judo and is simply the more well-rounded fighter at this juncture. We’re getting a good price on Ribas here, only because of how each woman’s last fight went down. 10* Amanda Ribas |
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10-16-21 | Andrew Sanchez v. Bruno Silva -150 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 31 h 44 m | Show |
10* Bruno Silva (6:15 ET): This is the headline fight on the prelims, which air on ESPN+. It’s a Middleweight fight (185 lbs) scheduled for three rounds. Silva is 20-6 overall and won his only UFC fight while Andrew Sanchez comes in 12-6 overall and 5-4 in the UFC. I think the talented prospect Silva continues his rise up the MW ladder and gets his hand raised Saturday evening. Silva comes into Fight Night 195 on a five-fight win streak. All five wins have been by TKO/KO, four of them coming in the first round. His UFC debut was delayed due to failing a drug test, but finally Silva got to step inside the Octagon in June and he made quick work of Wellington Turman. Silva actually found himself on the ground early in that fight, but only for a short time and I attribute that to it being his first fight in nearly three years. Don’t expect him to be taken down at all in this fight. I say that because Sanchez is someone who is willing to stand and trade shots, whether it’s working in his favor or not. It is highly unlikely that such an approach will pay off here. Last August, it was his turn to stop Turman in the first round. But that was Sanchez’s first KO victory in almost eight years! He followed that up by losing to a flying knee against Makhmud Muradov in January. That was Sanchez’s second loss in his last three fights and fourth in his last seven. He’s tailor-made for another quick Silva win. 10* Bruno Silva |
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10-09-21 | Marina Rodriguez v. Mackenzie Dern -185 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -185 | 21 h 52 m | Show |
8* Mackenzie Dern (5:50 ET): This is your main event of the evening, which means we’re scheduled for five rounds. But I’d be surprised if it went that long. Dern is 11-1 overall and 6-1 in the UFC. She faces Marina Rodriguez, who is 14-1-2 overall and 4-1-2 in the UFC. The winner here will move themselves closer to a title fight here in the Strawweight Division (115 lbs) and pretty clearly it should be Dern getting her hand raised. Don’t be surprised if this one ends quickly. Since suffering her lone career loss, to Amanda Ribas almost two years ago, Dern has really turned a corner. She already had a tremendous background in Brazilian ju-jitsu and a reputation as a submission artist. That’s been on full display in her last four fights, three of which have been submission victories. She also holds a very impressive decision victory over Virna Jandiroba last December. All three recent submission victories came in Round 1. The most recent was over Nina Nunes in April where Dern displayed some new takedown ability. Rodriguez is 2-0 in 2021 with a decision victory over Michelle Waterson and a 2nd round TKO of Amanda Ribas before that. However, at 34 years of age, she has less upside than Dern. As soon as this fight gets to the mat, Rodriguez will be in major trouble. She was only 2-2-1 in the UFC coming into this year. Keep in mind that Dern’s last win was over someone who had not been submitted in a decade. With 25 minutes to work with, she will eventually get it to the ground and that’s ballgame. 8* Mackenzie Dern |
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10-09-21 | Sabina Mazo -175 v. Mariya Agapova | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -175 | 19 h 12 m | Show |
8* Sabina Mazo (4:35 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Women’s Flyweight Division. The fight takes place on the main card. Mazo is 9-2 overall and 3-2 in her UFC career. Her opponent Mariya Agapova is also 9-2 overall, but just 1-1 in the UFC. Both fighters are coming off losses, but in the case of Mazo, she’d moved up a class to bantamweight. So I’ll look past her loss as it should be a successful return to 125 lbs Saturday afternoon. What’s interesting here is who Agapova lost to in her last fight. It was Shana Dobson, who is someone that Mazo defeated back in 2019. Not only was it considered a major upset when Agapova lost to Dobson, but she was stopped via second round knockout and clearly gassed out. Also, that fight took place back in August of last year. So it’s been a long layoff for Agapova, the longest of her career in fact. I actually see that as a disadvantage coming into this fight. Mazo had been on a major roll in the UFC’s Flyweight Division before losing to Alexis Davis back in February. Whiile she was outclassed in a unanimous decision loss, again it bears repeating that she moved up a weight class for that fight. Unlike Agapova. Mazo has never been stopped in her MMA career. She’s also been fighting more regularly as she’s been inside the Octagon twice since Agapova last fought. Mazo is the better striker and stamina was clearly an issue for Agapova in her last fight. The favorite gets her hand raised. 8* Sabina Mazo |
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10-02-21 | Niko Price -165 v. Alex Oliveira | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 29 h 50 m | Show |
8* Niko Price (8:15 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Welterweight Division (170lbs). You’ve got both Niko Price (14-5 overall, 6-5 UFC) and Alex Oliveira (22-10-1, 11-8-1 UFC) desperate for victories. The line on Price has shot up and I’m inclined to agree with the move, believing he’ll be the one to get his hand raised. Price is an exciting fighter with some highlight reel knockouts. But he’s won just one of his last five fights and is 0-2 with a no contest in the last three. The last time we saw him was back in July, on the undercard of Poirier vs. McGregor 3, when he took a decision loss to Michel Pereira. While it’s been a tough stretch for Price, his opponent is arguably in even worse form right now having dropped five of seven including B2B submission losses in the last year. So why am I so confident that Price is going to be the one to bounce back? Well, styles make fights and his aggressive style is likely to pay dividends in this one. Price is extremely aggressive, always looking for a knockout, while Oliveira prefers to keep his opponents at bay. Even if Oliveira can subdue Price in the clinch for a bit, Price is likely to overwhelm him and deliver the knockout blow. 8* Niko Price |
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09-26-21 | Brian Ortega v. Alexander Volkanovski -170 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 33 h 10 m | Show |
7* Alexander Volkanovski (11:50 ET): This is the main event of UFC 266, scheduled for five rounds between Featherweight Champion Volkanovski and challenger Brian Ortega. Volkanovski is 22-1 overall in his career including a perfect 9-0 in the UFC. Ortega is 15-1 overall and 7-1 in the UFC. I look for the champ to retain Saturday night with a convincing victory. Volkanovski is the superior striker here, which should be the difference. Granted he has only had three finishes in the UFC, but the two wins over former champ Max Holloway (a great champ in his own right) were incredibly impressive. Ortega does not have the best defense when it comes to getting hit, so if Volkanovski can execute his game plan, then he’ll be at least winning on the scorecards. Ortega is going to look to get this fight on the ground, but the problem with that approach is he only has a 21% takedown success rate. Volkanovski has shown great takedown defense in the past, so he’s not going to go down easily, if he goes down to the mat at all. It’s difficult to look past the fact Ortega was dominated by Holloway, who Volkanovski defeated twice. 7* Alexander Volkanovski |
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09-04-21 | Marc-Andre Barriault -165 v. Dalcha Lungiambula | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 25 h 26 m | Show |
8* Marc-Andre Barriault (2:05 ET): This will be the second fight on the prelims of UFC Fight Night 191 this Saturday. It is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Middleweight Division (185 lbs). We’ve got Barriault, who is 12-4 overall but just 1-3 in the UFC, taking on Dalcha Lungiambula (11-2 overall, 2-1 UFC). I like the favorite (Barriault) to get his hand raised in this one as he’s got far better stamina and has proven he can absorb damage. Expect him to win this one late, either via stoppage or by decision. Barriault’s 1-3 UFC record is a little misleading in the sense that he had a win over Oskar Piechota overturned by the NSAC due to a positive drug test. He knocked out Piechota in the second round. Now we can all debate whether or not that was because of nefarious means. But there was nothing nefarious about his third round stoppage of Abu Azaitar back in March. Barriault did lose his first three UFC fights - all by decision - but he’s never been stopped in his mixed martial arts career. Having knocked out his two previous opponents, this is the first time he’s had some real “momentum” since joining the UFC. Lungiambula is an interesting fighter at 185 lbs. He’d previously fought at Light Heavyweight (205 lbs) and Heavyweight prior to coming to the UFC. So it’s a challenge just to make weight in the MW division. In his last fight, it was clear that he was running out of gas late, but held on for a decision win over Markus Perez. That was back in January. Lugiambula had been KO’d in his previous fight, by Magomed Ankalaev, back in November of 2019. I just don’t see him being able to hold on at the end of this fight like he did against Perez. He’s not been in good shape heading into the final round either of those last two fights. 8* Marc-Andre Barriault |
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08-28-21 | Micheal Gillmore v. Andre Petroski UNDER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
10* Under Gillmore/Petroski (10:35 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Middleweight Division (185 lbs). Both Micheal Gillmore and Andre Petroski are making their UFC debuts here. Gillmore brings in a 5-3 career mark while Petroski is 5-1. The latter is a massive favorite here and likely to end this one rather quickly. But rather than take a chance with those massive odds, I’ll bet the Under as we’re then covered in case Petroski were to get caught with a big shot. All we need is this fight to be over by the halfway point of the second round. All five of Petroski’s wins have come via stoppage, three of which were in the first round. But he is off a loss in October to Aaron Jeffery where he was stopped in the second round. Then came a stint on “The Ultimate Fighter” show. Fights from that show don’t count in the overall record, but it’s worth mentioning neither went past round two for Petroski. He submitted Aaron Phillips, but then was eliminated himself via submission at the hands of Bryan Battle. Based on Petroski’s resume, there’s just no reason to expect this fight to last very long. Gillmore was a castmate of Petroski on “The Ultimate Fighter.” He was actually an alternate for the show and his stay was a short one. He lost his first fight, getting stopped by Gilbert Urbina. Prior to that, there were lots of stoppages on Gillmore’s career resume, win or lose. Every loss in his career has come by submission. Four of his official eight fights have ended in the first round. I just can’t see this fight lasting long with Petroski very likely to assert control early and get the finish. 10* Under Gillmore/Petroski |
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08-28-21 | Darren Stewart v. Dustin Jacoby OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
8* Over Stewart/Jacoby (8:35 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Light Heavyweight Division (205 lbs). We’ve got Darren Stewart, who is 12-7 overall but has a losing record (5-6) in the UFC. Dustin Jacoby is 14-5-1 overall in his career with a 2-2-1 record in the UFC. My viewpoint is that this fight is very likely to go to the scorecards, so I’ll bet the Over 2.5 rounds. We just need this one to make it to the halfway point of round three to cash. Jacoby is actually in his second stint with the UFC. The first didn’t go well as he lost both fights and was then let go. That was all the way back in 2012. He definitely seems like a better fighter now as he’s unbeaten in his last five fights, the last of which was a draw against Ion Cutelaba in May. Three of the previous four, all victories, went to the scorecards. Being the larger of the two fighters here, Jacoby may very well “scare off” a usually aggressive Stewart and that likely leads to a pretty methodical and quite frankly boring fight. Stewart hasn’t done much winning of late as he’s gotten his hand raised just once in his last five fights. That includes a no contest against Eryk Anders in March due to Anders landing an illegal knee. Stewart lost the rematch with Anders in June, but that was by decision. Even in the midst of a rough stretch, Stewart has proven difficult to beat. He hasn’t been stopped since 2017 and six of his last eight fights have gone to the scorecards. 8* Over Stewart/Jacoby |
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08-21-21 | Josiane Nunes v. Bea Malecki -140 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -140 | 31 h 57 m | Show |
10* Bea Malecki (8:40 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Women’s Bantamweight Division (145 lbs). Malecki comes in undefeated at 4-0 overall and 2-0 in the UFC. Her opponent, Josiane Nunes, will be making her UFC debut Saturday night. She comes in with a 7-1 career record. My view is that Malecki is going to win this one rather handily. Malecki has not fought since March of last year when she won a unanimous decision over Veronica Macedo. Before that, her UFC debut saw her prevail in relatively short order against Duda Santana, whom she submitted (rear-naked choke) in the second round. Her two fights before coming to the UFC were both first round stoppages. While only five fights in five years is an extremely small sample size, I’m confident we’ve seen enough from Malecki to make this a confident bet. She’s shown she can take punishment and still prevail. I expect her best performance to date here. Nunes has been around longer and last fought in November of last year. She’s on a six-fight win streak, the last five of which have all been stoppages. But it’s a big step up in competition when moving to the UFC. Like Malecki, Nunes has not been shy about absorbing some punishment before coming out ahead. She will be looking for a “home run shot” here and that may be what ultimately costs here. Nunes will have a massive size edge in this fight as she is 5’9”. I don’t see Nunes getting close enough to inflict any serious damage. 10* Bea Malecki |
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08-07-21 | Bobby Green v. Rafael Fiziev OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 58 h 33 m | Show |
8* Over Green/Fisiev (9:25 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Lightweight Division (155 lbs). It will be the final fight on the prelims, which you can watch for free on ESPN 2. Bobby Green, a veteran, comes in with a 27-11-1 career mark. That includes a 8-6-1 record in the UFC. He has his work cut out for him Saturday night against the emerging Rafael Fisiev (9-1 overall, 3-1 UFC), who has put together an impressive three-fight win streak. But despite the lopsided odds, I wouldn’t completely count Green out. I think there’s a good chance this one makes it to the judges, so I’m going Over 2.5 rounds. Fiziev arrived in the UFC with an unbeaten record and plenty of hype. So it was a shocker when he was knocked out in less than 90 seconds by Magomed Mustafaev back in April of 2019, his first fight with the promotion. But since that time, Fiziev has put it together with three straight wins. Two were by decision. The most recent was a first round knockout of Renato Carniero in December of last year. The long layoff between fights is worth noting and I think we could see a slower than expected start from “Ataman.” Staying active has typically never been an issue for Green, who fought four times in 2020. He started the year 3-0, but then dropped a decision to Thiago Moises in October. All four fights went to the scorecards. It’s interesting that after being so active last year, Green has an even longer layoff than Fisiev. It could be that this is the only fight of 2021 for both fighters. Yes, they’ll be looking to make it count, but I also think they’ll be more cautious at the start. I think that Green’s wrestling ability will be able to keep the fight going. Look for this one to make it past the halfway point of round three - at least. 8* Over Green/Fisiev |
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07-31-21 | Zarrukh Adashev v. Ryan Benoit OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 27 h 50 m | Show |
8* Over Adashev/Benoit (6:30 ET): This is a three-round fight between flyweights (125 lbs) Zarrukh Adashev (3-3 overall, 0-2 UFC) and Ryan Benoit (10-7, 3-5). As you can tell from those respective records, nether has done much and there isn’t a lot of potential to be seen. But they are fighting on the main card of a show on ESPN. Because of the fact that both fighters are absolutely desperate for a victory Saturday night, I’m expecting a relatively cautious pace. Definitely look for the fight to go Over 2.5 rounds as a decision is likely to be rendered. Adashev was signed by the UFC last year despite having only four professional bouts under his belt. His UFC career is not off to a rousing start as he was knocked out (in 32 seconds) by Tyson Nam last June and then dropped a unanimous decision to Su Mudaerji in January. Adashev has a solid background in kickboxing, but there’s really not much else to tout here. The fact he did make it the distance last time does give me more confidence in the Over, however. Benoit also has some kickboxing on his resume, but he tends to be a methodical fighter and is tough to beat. I know that sounds odd in light of a losing UFC record, but each of the last three defeats for Benoit came via decision. In fact, four of his last five fights have gone to the cards. All five went to round three. It’s been over a year since Benoit dropped a decision to Tim Elliott in his last fight, so I hardly see him coming out and “swinging for the fences.” Again, don’t expect a finish here. 8* Over Adashev/Benoit |
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07-24-21 | TJ Dillashaw v. Cory Sandhagen -175 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -175 | 30 h 29 m | Show |
7* Cory Sandhagen (9:40 ET): This is your main event for UFC on ESPN 27. It’s scheduled for five rounds in the Bantamweight Division (135 lbs) between Cory Sandhagen (14-2 overall, 7-1 in UFC) and the returning TJ Dillashaw (16-4 overall, 12-4 in UFC). What Dillashaw is “returning” from is a 30 month suspension for drug use. His last fight came all the way back in January 2019, that being the disastrous 32 second KO loss to Henry Cejudo, which was for the Flyweight Title. The Bantamweight division now is a lot stronger than when Dillashaw was last a part of it. So expect to see Sandhagen win this one. Sandhagen’s only loss in the UFC came to current Bantamweight Champ Aljamain Sterling. That was back in June of last year. He subsequently bounced back with a pair of impressive victories, the most recent being the highlight-reel KO of Frankie Edgar back in February. It took all of 28 seconds for “The Sandman” to end that one. That was on the heels of a 2nd round TKO of Marlon Moraes last October. Sandhagen has defeated a lot of “older” bantamweights and the 35-year old Dillashaw would be the most impressive victim yet. Dillashaw’s drug suspension looms large over this fight as it was one of the more severe punishments we’ve seen for a fighter. That and the fact he was destroyed by Cejudo the last time we saw him has to make you wonder if he’s approaching “the end of the line.” Meanwhile, a win here and Sandhagen would almost certainly earn a title shot and rematch with Sterling. Almost all of Dillashaw’s wins have come against fighters that are now afterthoughts in this division. Sandhagen is top 10 all-time in the UFC in significant strikes landed per minute. This feels like a “passing of the torch.” 7* Cory Sandhagen |
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07-24-21 | Nassourdine Imavov v. Ian Heinisch -150 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -150 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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07-10-21 | Dustin Poirier -130 v. Conor McGregor | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 49 h 48 m | Show |
10* Dustin Poirier (11:59 ET): Back when these two fought in January, I played the Under at 2.5 rounds. I also “warned” of the potential Poirier upset, noting that “many respected MMA minds (had been) talking about how there is no way Dustin Poirier should be this big of an underdog and they do have a point.” I said if Poirier was to win, “it would be by early knockout, not grinding out a decision.” Sure enough, he ended McGregor’s night with a second round TKO. This will be the third fight between the two lightweights (McGregor won the first, back in 2014) and the completion of the trilogy promises to be the biggest fight of 2021. This time, Poirier is likely to close as the slight favorite and for good reason. Not only did he just defeat McGregor six months ago, but he’s obviously a much better fighter now compared to 2014 when he lost the first fight. Meanwhile, the same cannot be said for McGregor, who still may be the sport’s biggest draw but is no longer its best fighter. He has fought only three times since 2016 and lost twice. Poirier is now 11-2 (w/ one NC) since the loss to McGregor in ‘14, improving his career record to 27-6 (19-5 in UFC). With 155 lb champ Khabib Nurmagomedov vacating the title, Poirier was in line to fight for the vacant title but instead opted to take this fight, which is the obvious bigger payday. It’s a risk, but one that should reward him handsomely if he can win here and then take the LW title. I think he’ll prevail here fairly easily as I’ve got reason to believe McGregor is long past his peak at this point. There was never any denying that Poirier was the better wrestler in this matchup, he now also may be the better striker. 10* Dustin Poirier |
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06-26-21 | Kennedy Nzechukwu v. Danilo Marques OVER 1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 17 h 26 m | Show |
10* Over Nzechukwu/Marques (3:45 ET): This is a Light Heavyweight bout between Kennedy Nzechukwu (8-1, 2-1 in UFC) and Danilo Marques (11-2, 2-0 in UFC). It is scheduled for three rounds. The O/U line is set at 1.5 rounds and I don’t think it’s going to have much difficulty going Over. Nzechukwu has fought only one time since 2019. That was a second round knockout of Carlos Ulberg back in March. His previous two UFC both went to the third round and his only other win was a decision. He did lose his UFC debut to Paul Craig via submission. Only one of Nzechukwu’s last six fights have gone to the cards, but I think this one has the potential to do so. Nzechukwu is going to want to keep this fight standing and look to win by striking. But the opponent is going to have a much different gameplan. Marques is on a four-fight win streak and 2-0 in the UFC. Before making his UFC debut in September of 2020, Marques had fought very sparingly. He did not fight in 2019 and fought just once in 2018. The UFC debut, last September, was a decision win over Khadis Ibragimov. He then won by rear-naked choke late in Round 2 over Mike Rodriguez. That’s still past the halfway mark of Round 2, which is all we need here. Marques is going to look to get this fight to the ground. A clash of styles will lengthen this fight. 10* Over Nzechukwu/Marques |
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06-19-21 | Roque Martinez v. Josh Parisian OVER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 46 h 2 m | Show |
6* Over Martinez/Parisian (5:05 ET): Here’s a fight in the UFC’s Heavyweight Division, scheduled for three rounds. It takes place on the prelims. While it’s a couple of “big boys,” I fully expect this one to make it past the O/U line of 1.5 rounds and possibly even go to a decision. Roque Martinez is 15-7-2 overall, but 0-2 in the UFC. Josh Parisian is 13-4 overall and 0-1 in the UFC. With both fighters still looking for that first taste of victory in the UFC, I expect a cautious approach. Take the Over. Now to be fair, most Parisian fights don’t last very long. He’s a bit of a knockout artist, always looking to end things with one big shot. That served him well on the regional scene where he picked up six consecutive finishes, five of them coming in the first round, prior to his UFC debut. But that debut did not go well as he lost an ugly decision to Parker Porter back in November. That was a fight many expected Parisian to win. He didn’t and now it’s back to the drawing board. The level of competition is obviously greater in the UFC than on the regional scene and Parisian is about to be reminded that it’s not always about flashy finishes. Martinez has struggled in the UFC, suffering one-sided losses to Alexander Romanov and Don’Tale Mayes over the last year. He was submitted by Romanov, late in the second round, but did go the distance against Mayes, showing some durability. After a rocky start to his professional career, Martinez has been beaten only four times since 2013 and only one of those came in the first round. I think this one easily makes it past the halfway mark of Round 2. Others obviously agree based on the Over getting juiced up. 6* Over Martinez/Parisian |
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06-19-21 | Casey O'Neill v. Lara Procopio -155 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -155 | 45 h 11 m | Show |
8* Lara Procopio (4:05 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Women’s Flyweight Division. We’ve got two prospects coming off wins. Procopio is 7-1 overall with a 1-1 record in the UFC. Casey O’Neill is unbeaten in her professional career (6-0) and is coming off a successful UFC debut where she downed Shana Dobson by second round TKO. While that was an impressive win for O’Neill, it was also a bit of a surprise and I can’t see her pulling B2B upsets. Look for Procopio to get her hand raised at the end of the bout. While still undefeated, O’Neill didn’t exactly take on the stiffest of competition in her pre-UFC days. Three of the five wins were by decision. Dobson was the toughest matchup of her young career and she passed the test surprisingly well. But for a second straight fight, O’Neill finds herself matched with the toughest opponent to date. Procopio lost her UFC debut, but that was at bantamweight (and it was a split decision to boot). Dropping down to flyweight, she fared much better against Molly McCann in February, grinding out a decision victory. While it’s tough to judge someone who has fought just once since 2019, Procopio seems more fully developed as a fighter (compared to O’Neill) at this stage of the game. 8* Lara Procopio |
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06-12-21 | Joanne Calderwood -130 v. Lauren Murphy | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -130 | 22 h 34 m | Show |
10* Joanne Calderwood (8:40 ET): We’re dealing with a matchup of two top 10 flyweights here. Joanne Calderwood is 15-5 overall and 7-5 in UFC. Lauren Murphy has a similar record as she is 16-4 overall and 6-4 in the UFC. It is widely believed that the winner of this fight will go on to challenge champion Valentina Shevchenko in the future. So there’s a lot on the line in this one. I’m going with the favorite. Calderwood has knocked on the door of title contention before, only to suffer shocking losses two times. The first was against Maryna Moroz in 2015. After a shaky 2016, she’s rebounded by winning four of her last six fights. One of those two losses, last year’s submission at the hands of Jennifer Maia, proved critical however as she was again knocking on title contention. But then in January, she picked up a big win over Jessica Eye. When it comes to solidifying her status as the #1 contender, I think the third time is the charm. Murphy lost a couple close decisions early in her UFC career, but now comes in riding a four-fight win streak. It’s telling that she’s still the underdog. Like Calderwood, Murphy is a “bigger” flyweight, having moved down a class once this division was announced. While it may project as a fairly even matchup, Calderwood has the better resume and isn’t about to let another title opportunity slip away. 10* Joanne Calderwood |
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06-12-21 | Jake Collier v. Felipe Colares OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
8* Over Collier/Felipe (6:10 ET): The very first fight on tonight’s UFC card is likely to go to the scorecards, or at least past the midway mark of the third round. Scheduled for three rounds in the Heavyweight Division, we’ve got Jake Collier (12-5 overall, 4-4 UFC) taking on Carlos Felipe (10-1, 2-1). The latter is the favorite. Collier has alternated losses and wins through his first eight UFC fights, never winning or losing two in a row. The bad news for him here is that he’s off a win (last December) over Gian Villante. That was by decision, which is the way three of his last four fights have ended. The exception was 1st round TKO loss to Tom Aspinall last July. That was his debut at heavyweight. Believe it or not, Collier started out as a Middleweight, so he’s moved up TWO weight classes to get here. The odds of him finishing someone like Felipe are very slim. Felipe lost his UFC debut last summer, but has since rebounded with B2B wins over Yorgan De Castro and Justin Tafa. All three UFC fights have gone to the scorecards. Felipe has a good chin, so that’s yet another reason to not expect him to be stopped tonight. At the same time, he doesn’t have much of a finishing game of his own. I think both fighters know their best path to victory is by impressing the judges. Expect this fight to go Over the total. 8* Over Collier/Felipe |
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06-05-21 | Augusto Sakai v. Jair Rozenstruik OVER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -198 | 48 h 56 m | Show |
7* Over Sakai/Rozenstruik (9:35 ET): We’ve got a Heavyweight Main Event at Fight Night 189 with August Sakai (15-2 overall, 4-1 in UFC) taking on Jairzinho Rozenstruik (11-2, 5-2). Both fighters are in off a loss. Sakai fell in the Main Event of Fight Night 176 last September as he was TKO’d in the fifth round by Alistair Overeem. That marked the first time in Sakai’s entire career that he was stopped. Rozenstruik has lost two of his last three fights and was beaten Ciryl Gane (via decision) back in February. I took the Over (1.5 rounds) in that Overeem-Sakai fight, which obviously turned out to be an easy winner. It did end up being the first time Sakai was ever stopped, but said stoppage didn’t come until the “championship rounds,” well after the O/U line had passed. Just to clarify this one, it’s the same thing as we only need the fight to make it past the halfway mark of Round 2. That seems pretty easy considering four of Sakai’s last five fights have made it to Round 3. So have 7 of his last 10. Rozenstruik actually owns a 5th round KO of Overeem back in 2019, but he’s lost two of three since. Unlike Sakai, most of Rozenstruik’s fights have ended rather quickly, but I think it’s notable his last one marked the first time EVER a decision had to be rendered. In my analysis of the Overeem-Sakai fight, I noted that unlike most heavyweights, Sakai doesn’t typically look to end things with “one punch.” He’s a patient and more technical striker than Rozenstruik, who will have the power edge and look to use leg kicks. But he’s not all that accurate and averages just seven strike attempts per minute. In a combined 131 minutes of UFC action, these two have combined for ONE takedown! So expect a SLOW start to this one and for the fight to easily surpass the O/U line. 7* Over Sakai/Rozenstruik (1.5 Rounds) |
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06-05-21 | Walt Harris v. Marcin Tybura -171 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 47 h 21 m | Show |
8* Marcin Tybura (9:05 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Heavyweight Division. We’ve got Tyburn (21-6 Overall, 8-5 in UFC) taking on Walt Harris (13-9, 6-8 in UFC). The respective form of the two heavyweights couldn’t be more different of late and Harris’ struggles at this level of competition really do stick out like a “sore thumb.” I’m going with the favorite in this main card bout, which is second from the top of the card. Tybura is currently on a four-fight win streak right now, all of those wins coming last year. After winning three consecutive decisions over Sergey Spivak, Maxim Grishin and Ben Rothwell, he earned himself a KO victory in December over former NFL player Greg Hardy. Certainly, Tybura must be cautious at avoiding Harris’ hands as his L3 losses have all seen him get knocked out. But that seems to be a thing of the past and right now this is a fighter that seems to be in peak form. Harris had a very difficult 2020 as he was TKO’d by both Alistair Overeem and Alexander Volkoff. Not only that, but he had to deal with the abduction and murder of his stepdaughter, an awful tragedy. That came on the heels of a breakout 2019 where he went 2-0. But he’s generally struggled in the UFC as his 6-8 record indicates. He’s never been one to shy away from taking a tough matchup and has never lost three in a row before. But this is the time as he’s clearly outclassed in this one as Tybura will enjoy a massive edge on the ground where he can likely end things rather easily. 8* Marcin Tybura |
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05-22-21 | Norma Dumont v. Felicia Spencer -180 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -180 | 30 h 1 m | Show |
7* Felicia Spencer (8:10 ET): This is a three-round fight in the Women’s Featherweight Division between Felicia Spencer (8-2, 2-2 UFC) and Norma Dumont (5-1, 1-1 UFC). This division is somewhat in flux, but as long as it remains you’ve gotta figure that Spencer will be a significant part of it. While she dropped two of her last three fights, those losses were against Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino and Amanda Nunes, the latter a title fight. It’s a significant drop in class here against an opponent that took this fight on late notice. Dumont really struggled to make weight at 135 lbs, so she’s moving up a weight class here. She actually missed weight for both of her UFC fights and had another scrapped altogether because she was so far over the limit. Dumont has gone on record that she has no plans to stay at 145lbs, which seems peculiar given her previous issues making weight. Regardless of her future plans, I don’t like here prospects at the present time against one of the UFC’s best female fighters at 145 lbs. Spencer has never been stopped in her career and that isn’t about to change here. Being able to last the distance against both Justino and Nunes was incredibly impressive. Spencer will have a tremendous edge in the wrestling department in this fight and Dumont no longer has the size edge she typically relies on when competing at bantamweight. An underdog taking a fight on short notice AND moving up a weight class sounds like a recipe for disaster. Look for Spencer to win this fight rather easily. 7* Felicia Spencer |
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05-22-21 | Chris Barnett v. Ben Rothwell UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 28 h 25 m | Show |
8* Under Barnett/Rothwell (6:40 ET): The chances of this fight going the distance seem rather slim and the most likely scenario - a Rothwell win - isn’t likely to take long at all. This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the Heavyweight Division between Ben Rothwell (38-13, 8-7 UFC) and Chris Barnett (21-6), the latter making his UFC debut. Rothwell hasn’t fought in a while (off a loss in October) and it was somewhat of an adventure getting him an opponent here. At the end of the night, he’ll likely be happy that he was matched with such an unproven commodity. Look for this fight to end Under 2.5 rounds. Rothwell’s best days are clearly behind him as he’s dropped four of his previous six fights. Three of those losses have come on the heels of his now infamous two-year USADA suspension. That ended in 2019 and he’s 2-3 since. All but one of those fights did go to decision, yet Rothwell still maintains an excellent 89% career finish rate. When he wins, as he’s done 38 times in his MMA career, it’s often by stoppage. Only four of those 38 wins have been by decision. He’s only been stopped six times, the last one coming in 2013. Barnett is so unproven and this is such a step up in class for someone who has spent their entire career competing on the regional circuit. So a Rothwell win inside the distance is the most likely outcome. But if Rothwell were to lose, it likely would be via quick knockout. Barnett is on a six-fight win streak, four of those by TKO/KO. This is going to be a slugfest; two huge heavyweights trading “bombs.” It can only last so long. Honestly, Barnett seems like a bit of a questionable signing for the UFC and probably doesn’t have the necessary skill to last long in the promotion. Either Rothwell ends it quickly, or it's simply the end of the line for him. 8* Under Barnett/Rothwell |
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05-16-21 | Michael Chandler v. Charles Oliveira UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 49 h 26 m | Show |
8* Under Chander/Oliveira (11:59 ET): This is the main event of UFC 262 and it is for the vacant Lightweight Title (155lbs). The fight is scheduled for five rounds between Michael Chandler, who is 22-5 overall and 1-0 in the UFC, and Charles Oliveira, who is 30-8 overall and 18-8 in the UFC. It’s a fight that I don’t expect to go relatively long as I’m taking the Under 2.5 rounds. Chandler and Oliveira have a combined 52 wins in their respective careers. Only eight of those have been by decision. These are two finishers and I don’t expect this one to make it past the halfway point of round three. Oliveira actually owns the UFC record for most wins via submission. He comes into Saturday’s title fight having won his last eight bouts, seven of those being finishes. The exception was his last time out, a unanimous decision victory over Tony Ferguson in December where he completely dominated from start to finish. That was the first Oliveira fight to go three full rounds since 2014. There were 14 fights in between that didn’t go a full three and the vast majority of them (11) ended within the first two rounds, usually by submission. Chandler, the long-time Bellator Lightweight Champion, made a successful UFC debut in January when he TKO’d Dan Hooker in the first round. That was the fourth consecutive Chandler fight to end in Round 1. Six of his last eight and 7 of 10 have ended in the first five minutes. Only seven of his 27 career fights have gone to the scorecards and only one of those seven have come since 2016. The ratio for Oliviera is even more extreme with only four of 38 fights going to the cards. 8* Under Chandler/Oliviera |
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05-15-21 | Tony Ferguson v. Beneil Dariush -162 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 49 h 52 m | Show |
10* Beneil Dariush (11:25 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s lightweight division (155lbs). It pits Beneil Dariush (20-4-1 overall, 14-4-1 in UFC) against Tony Ferguson (25-5, 15-3). While these are two of the higher ranked LW’s in the UFC, and Ferguson is actually the higher ranked of the two, I believe that it will be Dariush continuing his winning ways with a convincing victory Saturday night. Dariush is someone I’ve won previously with (Fight Night 174) and I consider him to be a future title challenger. Going back to the end of 2018, Dariush finds himself on a six-fight win streak. Along the way, he seems to have developed into a bit of a “knockout artist,” stopping both Drakkar Klose and Scott Holtzman in short order last year. The Holtzman fight, which was back in August, is when I took him. It took less than a round for Dariush to finish things via spinning backfist. Things were much closer his last time out as it was a split decision victory over Diego Ferreira in February. But the good news is he seemed willing to combine his new hard-hitting ability with some wrestling, which has long been his hallmark. Ferguson seems to be trending in a much different direction than Dariush as he comes in off B2B losses to Charles Oliveira and Justin Gaethje. Prior to that it was a 12-fight win streak, but Ferguson’s UFC run will always be remembered for never getting matched up with Khabib Nurmagomedov. There were five different attempts to make that fight and none ever actually ended up happening. Ferguson is now 37 and looked a step slow in the B2B losses. 10* Beneil Dariush |
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05-08-21 | Maurice Greene v. Marcos Rogerio de Lima UNDER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 31 h 41 m | Show |
10* Under Greene/Rogerio de Lima (8:50 ET): This is a fight scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Heavyweight Division. Maurice Greene is 9-5 overall in his career, including 4-3 in the UFC. His opponent, Marcos Rogerio de Lima, is 17-7-1 overall and 6-5 in the UFC. Based on Rogeria de Lima’s track record, I do not expect this fight to go very long. I’ve got the Under 1.5 rounds. The vast majority of Rogerio de Lima’s 25 professional bouts have ended in the first round. The exact number is 16 and that includes the last two, a win over Ben Sosoli in February of last year and a loss to Alexander Romanov in November. Then you can throw in the fact that only one of Rogerio de Lima’s fights since 2014 has made it to the third round. The Under 1.5 rounds would have cashed in 14 of his last 16 fights. Rogerio de Lima is always going to come out looking to swing. Either he gets the early knockout, or gasses and gets knocked out himself. Greene has lost three of four with the most recent defeat coming at the hands former NFL player Greg Hardy back on Halloween night. That was an early second round stoppage (TKO), the fifth straight fight for Green that ended in a stoppage. He’s had just four decisions in his career and two of them came in his very first two professional fights. He has a submission game, so if this fight does get down on the mat, look out for that. But the bottom line here is that, no matter how this fight ends, it won’t take long. 10* Under Greene/Rogerio de Lima |
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05-01-21 | Krzysztof Jotko v. Sean Strickland OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 62 h 37 m | Show |
7* Over Jotko/Strickland (11:00 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Middleweight Division (185 lbs). Krzysztof Jotko is 22-4 overall, including 9-4 in the UFC. Strickland has a very similar record at 22-3 overall, including 9-3 in UFC. Strickland will prefer this fight to be standing where he will have the edge striking. But Jotko is going to want to look for takedowns and get things on the mat as he is the superior wrestler. I envision this one likely going to the scorecards. I’ll take the Over 2.5 rounds. Strickland comes in as the decided favorite in this one and for good reason. After recovering from a motorcycle accident that cost him two years of his career, he came back and delivered two of the best performances of his career: a decision victory over Jack Marshman back on Halloween night, followed by a second round TKO of Branden Allen three weeks later. It should be noted that Strickland has only been stopped once in his career. That was back in 2018. Since coming to the UFC, the majority of his fights have gone to decision. Jotko may discover it difficult to take down Strickland, who has 82% takedown defense. On a three fight wins streak, all by decision, Jotko will definitely still try to get this fight down on the mat. His best path to victory is to turn this into a bit of a slog and - while standing - keep Strickland in a clinch. I don’t know how effective he’ll be in doing that, but expect Jotko to survive nonetheless. Seven of Jotko’s last 10 fights have gone to the scorecards. This one makes it at least halfway through Round 3. 7* Over Jotko/Strickland |
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04-24-21 | Anthony Smith v. Jim Crute OVER 1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 49 h 42 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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04-24-21 | Kevin Natividad v. Danaa Batgerel -182 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 46 h 12 m | Show |
7* Danaa Batgerel (7:35 ET): This fight is also part of the “early prelims” and will conclude that particular two-hour telecast on ESPN2. It’s scheduled for three rounds in the men’s bantamweight division (135 lbs). Batgerel is 8-2 in his career and has yet to be stopped. He’ll take on Kevin Natividad, who is 9-2 in his career, including a loss by KO in his UFC debut last October. This will be Batgerel’s third time fighting in the UFC (1-1 previously). Like Natividad, Batgerel lost his UFC debut. The loss was by decision to Heili Alateng in August of 2019. But he quickly bounced back in March of 2020 with a first round knockout of Guido Cannetti. Batgerel is an exciting fighter, one who will constantly press the action. His opponent here will be more than willing to stand and exchange. I think that kind of fight favors Batgerel. To that point, it was an uppercut that stopped Natividad in the third round of his UFC debut. It was the second time in his career he was knocked out, which is not a good sign, and his willingness to stand and trade here will be his undoing. 7* Danaa Batgerel |
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04-24-21 | Na Liang v. Ariane Carnelossi -177 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 125 h 30 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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04-17-21 | Andrei Arlovski v. Chase Sherman OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 32 h 24 m | Show |
10* Over Arlovski/Sherman (11:15 ET): Andre Arlovski, the former UFC Heavyweight Champion, is about to step inside the Octagon for a 35th time. That’s the most ever for a heavyweight. He’s 19-14-1 for the promotion and 30-20 all-time. He will face Chase Sherman Saturday. Sherman is 15-6 in his MMA career, including 3-5 for the UFC. This fight is scheduled for three rounds and I believe is likely to head to the cards. Take the Over 2.5 rounds. Arlovski was NOT the originally scheduled opponent for Sherman here. He stepped in as a late replacement when Parker Porter was forced to withdraw (undisclosed reasons) earlier this month. Arlovski is coming off a second round loss to Tom Aspinall in February when he was choked out. But prior to that, he’d won three of four fights, all three wins coming via decision. His game plan here will likely be slow-paced striking to hopefully earn another judge’s decision. While Sherman does not have the best UFC record, he does come into this fight riding a four-fight win streak. All four wins have come via TKO. Three of those wins occurred outside the UFC, but he made a successful return to the promotion last May when he defeated Isaac Villanueva in the second round. The vast majority of Sherman’s fights have not gone to the cards, but this is a tricky matchup against a veteran he was not originally preparing to fight. 10* Over Arlovski/Sherman |
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04-10-21 | Nina Ansaroff v. Mackenzie Dern OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 24 h 0 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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04-10-21 | John Makdessi v. Ignacio Bahamondes OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
7* Over Makdessi/Bahamondes (2:10 ET): This is a fight scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Lightweight Division (155 lbs) between John Makdessi (17-7 overall, 10-7 in UFC) and Ignacio Bahamondes, who is 11-3 overall and making his UFC debut. The fight takes place on the prelims and can be viewed on ESPN. I like for it to (likely) go to the scorecards, or at least get past the midway point of Round 3. Take the Over 2.5 rounds. Makdessi has been in the UFC for just over a decade. He’s been used sparingly since 2016, but it is during that time he’s experienced his most success. He was actually on a nice 4-1 run before losing (by decision) to Francisco Trinaldo in March of last year. That was Makdessi’s fourth consecutive fight to go to the judge’s, so you can see why I like the Over here. (He won the previous three, for the record). Overall, 10 of his last 14 fights have gone to the cards. Bahamondes is coming off a win in Dana White’s Contenders Series, a 2nd round KO of Edson Gomez back in December. Before that, he’d been involved in three consecutive decisions, two wins and one loss. I don’t think Makdessi is likely to take Bahamondes down, thus this fight is likely to be mostly standing. While that’s a little scary for betting the Over, I think much of the fight will be Makdessi respecting Bahamondes’ range (he’s 6’3”, which is tall for a lightweight), so there won’t be a ton of enthralling exchanges. 7* Over Makdessi/Bahamondes |
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04-10-21 | Hunter Azure v. Jack Shore -167 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 21 h 22 m | Show |
8* Jack Shore (1:10 ET): This is a fight scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Bantamweight Division (135 lbs) between the undefeated Jack Shore (13-0 overall, 2-0 UFC) and Hunter Azure (9-1, 2-1). It takes place on the prelims, which can be viewed on ESPN. The unbeaten Shore last fought in July when he defeated Aaron Phillips via rear-naked choke at 2:29 of the second round. It was his third straight win via rear-naked choke and what I really like is that all but one of his 13 career victories have come by stoppage, the rear-naked choke being the most frequent finish. While I can’t guarantee a quick finish here, look for Shore to assert himself late in the fight and at the very least win on the cards. Azure sometimes gasses late in his fights and his defense is questionable. So that’s where I look for Shore to make his mark. Azure is coming off a decision win last September over Cole Smith, which was a nice rebound from his only career defeat, a second round KO at the hands of Brian Kelleher last May. But even in the decision win over Smith, you could see Azure getting tired late. It should be noted that the one loss came at featherweight. Still, I think Shore has the edge standing and certainly if it goes to the ground. 8* Jack Shore |
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03-27-21 | Modestas Bukauskas v. Michal Oleksiejczuk UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 59 h 29 m | Show |
8* Under Bukauskas/Oleksiejczuk (8:10 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Light Heavyweight Division (205 lbs) and will take place on the prelims, which you can watch for free on ESPN. Modestas Bukauskas comes in with an 11-3 career mark, including 1-1 in the UFC. He lost his last time out, suffering a first round KO at the hands of Jimmy Crute. Michal Oleksiejczuk is 14-4 overall and 2-2 in the UFC. He too suffered a first round defeat at the hands of Crute in his last fight! I’m looking for another “quick one” from these two fighters and will take the Under 2.5 rounds. Despite being on a two-fight losing skid, Oleksiejczuk is the favorite here. Not only did he lose to Crute 13 months ago, but he was beaten by Ovince St. Preux back in September 2019. That fight saw him stopped 2:14 into Round 2 via a shoulder choke. You’d have to go back almost two years to find the last time Oleksiejczuk had his hand raised in the Octagon. That was a 44 second knockout. Six of his last eight fights have ended in the first round, including three of the four in the UFC. Only three of his 18 career fights have gone to the scorecards. Bakauskas lost to Crute in October, so his layoff has not been as lengthy. That loss snapped a seven-fight win streak and five of those wins came in the first round. In fact, 9 of Bakauskas’ last 11 fights have not made it to the second round. Given the respective resumes here, I don’t see how you can expect this fight to go very long, let alone make it to the halfway point of the third round. 8* Under Bukauskas/Oleksiejczuk |
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03-20-21 | Kenan Song v. Max Griffin -200 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 48 h 11 m | Show |
6* Max Griffin (10:35 ET): This is a matchup of welterweights (170 lbs), scheduled for three rounds on the main card. Griffin is 16-8 in his MMA career, but just 4-6 in the UFC. Kenan Song holds a 16-5 career record, including 4-1 in the UFC. But it’s Griffin that comes in as a 2/1 favorite and I think that speaks volumes about the way this fight is likely to go. Griffin has had many exciting, close fights inside the Octagon and really his record could be a lot better. He’s lost two split decisions over his last five fights, one of them against Alex Oliveira. But he bounced back from that one in November by delivering a vicious 3rd round TKO of Ramiz Brahimaj. That was Griffin’s first fight that did NOT go to the scorecards since a TKO win over Eric Montano back in 2016. Griffin has only been stopped ONCE in a UFC fight and that was his debut vs. Colby Covington 4.5 years ago. In fact, that’s the ONLY time he’s ever been stopped in his career. While more successful, Song has not been as active as Griffin the last couple years nor has he faced the same stiff level of competition. A two-fight win streak actually dates back all the way to August of 2019. His last fight, a 1st round KO of Callan Potter, was over a year ago. I feel Song is a bit of a question mark on the mat and the way I see this one going is Griffin can score some takedowns and get the win from the judges. 6* Max Griffin |
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03-13-21 | Ryan Spann v. Misha Cirkunov UNDER 1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 35 h 37 m | Show |
10* Under Spann/Cirkunov (9:50 ET): This is a light heavyweight (205 lbs) battle, scheduled for three rounds on the main card. It is the co-main event. Do not expect this one to last very long, let alone go to the scorecards. The expectation for a finish is VERY strong here as the fight is currently listed at -425 to finish “inside the distance.” I believe it will end sooner than halfway point of Round 2. Take the Under 1.5 rounds. Misha Cirkunov is 15-5 in his career, 6-3 in UFC. All nine UFC fights have ended inside the distance, five of the six wins coming via submission. All three times he’s lost, he’s been TKO’d. Incredibly, the Under has hit in 13 of his previous 14 fights including each of the last six. None of those last six fights have made it out of the first round. In fact, only five of his 20 career fights have made it to Round 2. Three of those five instances took place prior to 2012. Ryan Spann is 18-6 overall, including 4-1 in UFC. He’s coming off a first round knockout loss to Johnny Walker back in September. But when Spann wins, it also tends to be in short order. All but one of his 15 career finishes have come prior to the halfway mark of Round 2. Nine of his last 11 fights have ended in Round 1. Spann will almost certainly be looking for the knockout here, but his takedown defense isn’t great and if this fight goes down to the mat, it’s likely to be Cirkunov winning in short order via submission. 10* Under Spann/Cirkunov |
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03-06-21 | Kennedy Nzechukwu v. Carlos Ulberg OVER 1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 26 h 26 m | Show |
8* Over Nzechukwu/Ulberg (7:40 ET): This is a fight, scheduled for three rounds, at Light Heavyweight (205 lbs). I am taking the Over 1.5 rounds. Kennedy Nzechukwu is 7-1 in his career, but only 1-1 in UFC as he lost his debut to Paul Craig back in 2019. But he bounced back in August of that year with a decision victory over Darko Stosic. Both of his UFC fights so far have made it to the third round and it will be interesting to see how he does here coming off such a long layoff. Carlo Ulberg is undefeated in his MMA career, but has only three fights under his belt and this is his official UFC debut. A byproduct of Dana White’s Contender Series, he won his opportunity by beating Bruno Oliveira in just 2:02 via 1st round KO back in November. It has certainly been a “strange” pro career for Mr. Ulberg as his first two fights came in 2011 and 2018. So this is easily the shortest amount of time between fights for him while it's the longest gap for Nzechukwu. Nzechukwu was not known as the most aggressive fighter prior to the layoff, so it will be interesting to see if that changes. My guess is that it won’t, especially with this being his first appearance inside the Octagon in over 18 months. He’ll have the size advantage here, but look for Ulberg to somewhat neutralize that with his array of leg kicks. This fight should definitely make it past the halfway point of Round 2 and I wouldn’t at all be surprised if it went to a decision. 8* Over Nzechukwu/Ulberg |
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02-27-21 | Nikita Krylov v. Magomed Ankalaev OVER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
10* Over Krylov/Ankalaev (10:15 ET): This is a light heavyweight (205 lbs) bout scheduled for three rounds on the main card. While we may not get to the scorecards here, I do think this fight will make it at least halfway to the distance as the 27-7 Krylov takes on the 14-1 Ankalaev. Go with the Over 1.5 rounds. Magomed Ankalaev suffered a shocking defeat in his UFC debut when he submitted with just one second left in the fight against Paul Craig. Since then (March ‘18), he’s been on a roll, winning five in a row with four finishes, three of them coming in the first round. Ankalaev’s 2020 was odd as he fought Ion Cutelaba twice. The first fight ended in just 38 seconds due to some questionable officiating. The second did go a bit longer, but still ended in Round 1. Still, I expect Ankalaev to have a tougher time here. Krylov also had a misleading UFC debut when he gassed badly late in the fight and lost Soa Palelei. That was all the way back in 2013. After dropping two of his first three UFC fights, Krylov finally started to gain “momentum” by winning 9 of his next 10, all by stoppage. But he’s slowed down a bit the L2+ years, splitting his last four fights (2-2 record) and the last two have gone to decision. Krylov is not easy to finish though and it will take time for Ankalaev, if he is able to do it at all. Krylov’s best bet here is to try and wear down his opponent over the course of three rounds. 10* Over Krylov/Ankalaev |
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02-20-21 | Derrick Lewis v. Curtis Blaydes OVER 1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 51 h 47 m | Show |
6* Over Lewis/Blaydes (10:15 ET): If not for Francis Ngannou, we’d likely be discussing Curtis Blaydes in a very different manner. The #2 ranked heavyweight in the UFC is 0-2 vs. Ngannou, but 14-0 in his career vs. everybody else with 10 TKOs. Blaydes is a massive favorite here to beat #4 ranked heavyweight Derrick Lewis, who comes in with a 24-7 career record, including 15-5 in the UFC. Being that it’s the main event, this fight is scheduled for five rounds. I think it easily goes Over 1.5. Lewis is on a three-fight win streak coming into Saturday. Two of those were by decision, but he did score a second round TKO over Alexey Oleynik back in August. While only six of Lewis’ 31 fights have gone to the scorecards, he hasn’t had one end in Round 1 since 2016. Only three of the previous 12 have stayed Under 1.5 rounds. Lewis’ only shot at pulling the upset here is probably landing one big punch in the late rounds as he’s not a very active striker. Only twice in his UFC career has he landed 50+ significant strikes in a fight. Blaydes will try to end things early here, but I think Lewis is going to be able to hold on for a while. Blaydes hasn’t fought since June - a decision victory over Alexander Volkoff - as he tested positive for COVID in November, thus delaying this fight. But even though he took down Volkoff 14 different times in that fight, demonstrating his incredible wrestling ability, an inability to finish was apparent. Yes, he did knock out Junior Dos Santos 13 months ago, but I don’t see that happening here. 6* Over Lewis/Blaydes |
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02-20-21 | Aleksei Oliynyk v. Chris Daukaus UNDER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 49 h 17 m | Show |
7* Under Oleynik/Daukaus (9:00 ET): This is a battle of heavyweights who are 12 years apart in age. Chris Daukaus, who is 2-0 in the UFC and 10-3 in his career, is the young upstart and should be a 2:1 favorite by the time he steps into the cage Saturday night. His opponent is the 43-year old Alexey Oleynik, who is 8-5 in the UFC and 59-14-1 overall in what has been a busy career. This is a fight I don’t see going very long and thus I’m on the Under 1.5 rounds. Daukaus will almost certainly be looking for a knockout Saturday night. That’s how each of his last seven victories have come, including both here in the UFC, which have not made it out of the first round. After stopping Parker Porter last August, it only took 45 seconds for Daukaus to finish Rodrigo Nascimento Ferreira in October. The issue for Daukaus is that he does not score the quick knockout, he hits the proverbial “wall” quickly. That could be a major issue against the submission specialist Oleynik. Oleynik fought a total of four times in 2018-19 and all four fights ended in the first round. Two were wins and two were losses. He fought three times in 2020 and the last time we saw him, he got knocked out by Derrick Lewis (who co-headlines this card) just 21 seconds into the second round. Just like Daukaus would seem susceptible to gassing and being submitted, Oleynik seems vulnerable to a quick knockout loss here. Only one of Daukaus’ previous eight fights have made it past the halfway point of the second round. 7* Under Oleynik/Daukaus |
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02-13-21 | Anthony Hernandez v. Rodolfo Vieira UNDER 1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 101 h 28 m | Show |
8* Under Hernandez/Vieira (9:40 ET): This is a fight in the middleweight division (185 lbs), scheduled for three rounds. Vieira is a prohibitive favorite here (nearly -400 on the money line as of this writing) and for good reason as he comes in with a 7-0 career record, including 2-0 in the UFC. Hernandez is 7-2 in his career, but just 1-2 in the UFC. Oddsmakers expect this bout to be over in pretty short order and I agree. I’ll take the Under 1.5 rounds here, meaning there will be a winner before the halfway point of Round 2. Vieria has an impressive background in Brazilian ju-jitsu and a solid submission game. He has finished all seven opponents he’s faced, six of them by submission, and five of the seven fights have ended in the first round. Only one has made it to the third round. It was an arm-triangle choke that got the win in both UFC fights, first against Oskar Piechota in August of ‘19, then against Saparbek Safarov in March of last year. My only concern about him is that he did absorb some punishment from Safarov and isn’t particularly great when on his feet. Keeping this fight standing is probably the only viable path Hernandez has to victory here. The problem is he is often TOO aggressive and is likely to be taken down with ease. Once that happens, it’s over. I see Vieira getting Hernandez down and finishing this one early, but the beauty of taking the Under is that if Hernandez gets a “lucky punch,” it’s just as good. None of Hernandez’s three UFC fights have made it to the third round and he was TKO’d in just 39 seconds (by Kevin Holland) his last time out. Seven of his 10 career fights have ended in Round 1. 8* Under Hernandez/Vieira |
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02-06-21 | Alistair Overeem v. Alexander Volkov -190 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 33 h 44 m | Show |
7* Alexander Volkoff (10:45 ET): This is the main event of the show, so it’s scheduled for five rounds in the Heavyweight Division. Both of these fighters are ranked in the top six. Overeem is actually one spot higher, yet Volkoff is the prohibitive favorite. Originally, I was looking to take the Over in this fight, but the number moved (a full round!). So I’ll roll with the favorite instead as Volkoff should pick up arguably the most important win of his career here. At 40 years of age, Overeem is definitely a veteran of the sport. But so is Volkoff, despite being eight years younger than his opponent here. He’s also the better striker. In fact, he might be the best striker in the entire division. He’s hit the 100-strike mark in three of his eight UFC fights! The former Bellator Heavyweight Champ is now 32-8 in his pro career and coming off a TKO win over Walt Harris back in October. Overeem has been knocked out 14 different times in his career, which doesn’t really bode well against the excellent striker Volkoff. Overeem has done it all, his win over Brock Lesnar back in 2011 being the possible high point, and he too defeated Harris in 2020. He followed that with another TKO victory over Augusto Sakai in September. But let us not forget that Overeem is still just 4-3 over his last seven fights and was stopped in all three losses. The majority of this fight figures to take place standing and the edge goes to Volkoff. 7* Alexander Volkoff |
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01-24-21 | Dustin Poirier v. Conor McGregor UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 110 h 36 m | Show |
7* Under Poirier/McGregor (11:59 ET): Conor McGregor is unsurprisingly a big favorite here and the ML price figures to get even steeper by the time these two fighters hit the cage. I’ve heard many respected MMA minds talking about how there is no way Dustin Poirier should be this big of an underdog and they do have a point. But who am I to doubt McGregor? This lightweight (155 lbs) fight is scheduled for five rounds, but I don’t see any way this thing gets close to going the distance. I’m taking the Under 2.5 rounds. The first time these two fought was over six years ago and McGregor ended things with a first round TKO in just 106 seconds. The expectation now is that Poirier is going to be a much “tougher out” as McGregor has tasted defeat twice since that win, losing to Nate Diaz and Khabib Nurmagomedov. We faded him in the Nurmagomedov fight, but he has since bounced back a 40 second knockout of Donald Cerrone almost exactly one year ago. There have been only three times in his career that a McGregor fight has made it to the third round: the loss to Nurmagomedov, the win in the rematch with Nate Diaz and a decision over Max Holloway back in 2013. I think it would be foolish to expect this fight to go long, let alone the distance. Poirier is 10-2 (w/ one NC) since his loss to McGregor to improve to 26-6 in his career (18-5 in UFC). My guess is that if he is able to “shock the world” and win here, it would be by early knockout, not grinding out a decision. Both fighters are going to come out looking to strike. The threat of a McGregor knockout is always very real, but Poirier’s striking has improved since the first fight, so there’s always a chance he gets “lucky.” But I’ve seen too many of these McGregor fights not to expect a first round stoppage. 7* Under Poirier/McGregor |
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01-20-21 | Manon Fiorot -195 v. Victoria Leonardo | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
7* Manon Fiorot (Time TBD): This is a fight scheduled for three rounds in the Women’s Flyweight Division. Both fighters are making their UFC debuts though Fiorot is 5-1 in her pro career while Victoria Leonardo is 8-2. Fiorot has been bet up pretty heavily and I agree with this line move. Fiorot lost her pro debut via split decision back in June of 2018. Since then, it’s been five consecutive victories and the last three have all been finishes, each taking fewer time than the previous one. Her most recent fight was back in November and ended in Round 1 as she defeated Gabriela Campos via TKO. While she likes to strike from a distance, Fiorot has also demonstrated some grappling skills in her short MMA career. What I look for is for her to dictate the terms of this fight. Leonardo comes by way of Dana White’s Contenders Series. She was not expected to defeat Chelsea Hackett back in November, but did (2nd round TKO) and thus earned the contract. Leonardo is aggressive and will be the most physically imposing opponent Fiorot has faced to date. But I feel she lacks the necessary skill to win over the course of 15 minutes. It’s notable that Fiorot did not have to go through DWCS to get signed by the promotion. Also, Leonardo has been stopped twice before. 7* Manon Fiorot |
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01-16-21 | Li Jingliang v. Santiago Ponzinibbio OVER 1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 220 h 38 m | Show |
6* Over 1.5 Ponzinibbio/Li (4:00 ET): This is a fight at 170lbs (welterweight), scheduled for three rounds and it will take place on the main card on ABC. I see it making it well into the second round, if not to the scorecards. All we need is to hit the halfway mark of Round 2 to cash this bet. I think we get there. Santiago Ponzinibbio is coming off a long layoff, for a litany of reasons. Injuries, a life-threatening staph infection and COVID-19 make this the first time he’ll be stepping back in the cage since November 2018. That’s over two years ago. My guess is we’re going to see a bit of an apprehensive start from him. Ponzinibbio is a veteran with a 27-3 career record and he’s won his last seven fights. So I don’t see him making many mistakes either. Three of his last five fights have gone to decision and one of the two that didn’t was a five-round fight that ended in fourth. Jingliang Li comes in at 17-6 and could be a sneaky underdog here. But he too is known for slow starts to his fights. The first Chinese UFC fighter, Li has been a little inconsistent through his time with the promotion. He’s coming off a decision loss to Neil Magny (who Ponzinibbio beat his last time out) in March. So he too has not fought since the pandemic. Not to beat a dead horse, but I just get a feeling this fight is gonna get off to a slow start. Three of Li’s last five fights have gone to decision as well. 6* Over 1.5 Ponzinibbio/Li |
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01-16-21 | Punahele Soriano v. Dusko Todorovic -156 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -156 | 219 h 42 m | Show |
8* Dusko Todorovic (3:10 ET): This is a battle of unbeaten fighters. Todorovic is 10-0 while Soriano is 7-0 and this is scheduled to be the opener of the main card on ABC. It’s a fight at 185 lbs (middleweight), scheduled for three rounds. Only one can stay unbeaten and I’m backing Todorovic. Todorovic has finished all but one opponent, that being Teddy Ash, whom he defeated on Dana White’s Contenders Series back in 2019. It was a pretty ugly decision victory, but that was followed up by an impressive second round knockout TKO of Dequan Townsend. All nine victories by stoppage have come within two rounds, six of them coming in round one. But don’t be surprised if it's Todorovic’s patience that gets his hand raised here. His opponent can be tired out and frustrated when he doesn’t score the early knockout. Punahele Soriano is 7-0 with six first round finishes, but this may be too big of a step up at this point in his career. In his decision win over Jaime Pickett on DWCS, the only time he’s ever gone past the first round, he was clearly gassed by Round 2, but was able to hold on. But here it’s Todorovic who I expect to take the late rounds and thus remain undefeated. 8* Dusko Todorovic. |
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12-19-20 | Geoffrey Neal v. Stephen Thompson UNDER 4.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 76 h 10 m | Show |
10* Under Neal/Thompson (9:15 ET): The main event of this Saturday’s UFC card is a welterweight bout (170 lbs), scheduled for five rounds, between contenders Geoff Neal and Stephen Thompson. Even though Neal is lower ranked within the division (#11 as opposed to #5 for Thompson), he checks in as the slight favorite as of press time (Thursday afternoon). In taking the Under, I’m obviously calling for a finish in this fight and because it’s a five-round affair (as opposed to three), I like those odds. Neal is 5-0 in the UFC and 13-2 overall in his career. This main event opportunity is being viewed as a chance for him to make a “statement” at 170 lbs. He has certainly had a tough 2020 outside of the Octagon. Health issues have rendered him inactive for the entire year and even before that he had to return to his day job because of a lack of opportunities to fight. But when he’s gotten inside the cage, Neal has been magic. All but one of his five UFC wins have come via stoppage and all those ended no later than early in the second round. Going back further, Neal has had only three fights (out of 15) go to decision and two of them were before 2015. Thompson has been around for a while now, having made his UFC debut back in 2012. He’s even got a couple of title opportunities, though he failed both times. There have been some boring decisions on his resume for sure, and his fights have gone to the judges more often than not lately. However, with Neal’s punching power, Thompson could very well be knocked out at any point here. On the flip side, Neal’s long layoff could have him coming out rusty and cost him the fight early. Either way, I’ll take it as I look for one of these fighters to finish the other off inside of 4.5 rounds Saturday night. 10* Under Neal/Thompson |
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12-12-20 | Billy Quarantillo -155 v. Gavin Tucker | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -155 | 56 h 11 m | Show |
10* Billy Quarantillo () : This will be the third fight on the prelims as Quarantillo looks to keep his perfect UFC record (3-0) intact against Gavin Tucker, who is 12-1 overall in his career, including 3-1 in UFC. Quarantillo has a 15-2 overall record in his career. I look for him to get his hand raised yet again in this featherweight matchup. Last time we checked in with Quarantillo was his last fight. I had the Under 2.5 rounds and was bailed out when Quarantillo delivered a knockout just seven seconds into Round 3. It was not just his third straight win to open his UFC tenure, but eighth straight win overall. Six of those eight wins have been finishes. This is a fight Quarantillo has been wanting for awhile. He was originally going to face Tucker back in April, but that got postponed due to COVID-19. Tucker has regularly been “calling him out” since then, as recently as October. “I think it’s a really good stylistic matchup for me,” Quarantillo told MMA Junkie. “What’s really intriguing is that he’s never been finished before, so I look at that as a huge opportunity for me to go out and finish him. The fact Tucker has never been finished isn’t really a concern on this end as he very much SHOULD HAVE been by Rick Glenn in his UFC debut back in 2017. That beating led to him taking two years off. He’s won twice upon returning to the sport, both by submission, but it’s a big step up in class facing the red hot Quarantillo, whose superior cardio will treat him well Saturday. 10* Billy Quarantillo |
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12-05-20 | John Allan v. Roman Dolidze -200 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 38 h 50 m | Show |
7* Roman Dolidze (10:35 ET): This is a fight in the light heavyweight division (205 lbs), scheduled for three rounds, between undefeated prospect Roman Dolidze and the 13-5 John Allen. I believe the former is quite likely to get his hand raised in this one and thus remain undefeated. Dolidze won his UFC debut back in July against Khadis Ibragimov via a spectacular kick to the head. All seven of Dolidze’s wins have been finishes, five of them coming in the first round. So you can definitely see why he’s considered such a prospect. The only knock on him is that he’s yet to prove he can go the distance, but with his opponent having not set foot inside the cage in nearly 18 months, I don’t see that being an issue. In fact, another finish for Dolidze is quite likely here. The reason for Allen’s inactivity is due to the fact he’s coming off a drug suspension. That resulted in his win over Mike Rodriguez from July of 2019 being overturned. Prior to that, Allen had been on a bit of a roll, winning five of six fights. But none of those were here in the UFC, so he’s yet to prove he can win at this level, at least drug-free. Allen has been submitted four different times in his career, the most recent coming in 2018 as part of Dana White’s “Contenders Series.” While Dolidze may not be able to knock Allen out here, if he can get the fight to the ground, he’s got the advantage there as well. 7* Roman Dolidze |
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12-05-20 | Damon Jackson v. Ilia Topuria UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 36 h 26 m | Show |
8* Under Jackson/Topuria (7:35 ET): This fight takes place in the featherweight division (145 lbs) and is scheduled for three rounds. It pits the undefeated (and heavily favored) Ilia Topuria (9-0) against veteran Damon Jackson (18-3-1). The Under is set for 2.5 rounds, so we would need this fight to be over by the midway point of Round 3 at the latest. I do not see it getting to the scorecards. Topuria made a successful UFC debut back in October as he fought his way to a decision victory over Youssef Zalal. While the result of that fight was left up to the judges, that was a first for Topuria, whose eight finishes to start his career included seven in the first round! Almost all of them were by submission (choke), so be on the lookout for that. The bottom line for our betting purposes is that only two of Topuria’s nine career fight have gone longer than four minutes. Jackson is in his second stint with the UFC. The first didn’t go so well as he suffered a loss, a draw and a no contest. But the second go around has started out much better as he’s off a submission victory over Mirsad Bektic back in September. Like Topuria, Jackson has a reputation as a finisher. You’d have to go all the way back to 2016 to find the last time one of his fights was decided by the judges. Since then, half of his fights have ended in the first round. One of those five was a 10 second loss. Only two of the 10 made it to the third round, one of them being the UFC return in September, but even that was over within 90 seconds of Round 3 beginning. We’re getting a finish here. 8* Under Jackson/Topuria |
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11-28-20 | Bill Algeo v. Spike Carlyle -177 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -177 | 28 h 31 m | Show |
8* Spike Carlyle (10:10 ET): Spike Carlyle vs. Bill Algeo is a featherweight bout set for three rounds that will kick off the “main card” of Saturday night’s card. These are two aggressive fighters, so it should be an entertaining fight. But as you can tell from the odds, Carlyle is the one you should expect to emerge victorious. Carlyle is 9-2 with a 1-1 record in UFC. His UFC debut (back in February) was memorable as he scored a 1st round TKO of Aalon Cruz inside of 90 seconds. Unfortunately, he followed that up by losing a decision to Billy Quarantillo back in May. Carlyle’s only other loss was a split decision back in 2018, prior to his time in the UFC. In between losses, he’d won five straight fights, four of them by stoppage. Three of the four stoppages came in the first round. Algeo’s own aggressiveness is likely to play right into the hands of Carlyle. With a 13-5 career record, including 0-1 in the UFC, Alego isn’t a good defensive fighter - at all. He has a habit of tiring out late, which is what cost him the decision against Ricardo Lamas back in August. Algeo hasn’t been stopped since 2014, but this fight very well could end that streak. Expect Carlyle to get his hand raised. 8* Spike Carlyle |
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11-28-20 | Rachael Ostovich v. Gina Mazany -180 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 26 h 31 m | Show |
10* Gina Mazany (8:25 ET): This women’s flyweight bout scheduled for three rounds. Gina Mazany is 6-4 and takes on Rachel Ostovich, who has a losing record (4-5), something you don’t see very often. An opportunity to fade a fighter of this (poor) caliber at this short of a price doesn’t come around too often. Take advantage. This fight takes place as part of the prelims and is on ESPN+. Earlier this week, Ostovich openly spoke of retiring, which is never a good sign. Coming off an eight-month USADA suspension and on a two-fight losing streak, it’s easy to see why Ostovich might be thinking about “hanging it up.” This will be just her 4th fight in the last 36 months, having basically fought just once per year since joining the UFC. There’s just not a lot to like about her (professionally) coming into Saturday. The key to this fight from Mazany’s perspective is getting it to the ground. She’s pretty relentless with her takedowns. Mazany is dropping down a weight class here, which should do her some good after being overpowered by previous opponents. Ostovich is small, even by flyweight standards, so it’s going to be a welcome matchup for the favorite. A clear fade on the underdog here. 10* Gina Mazany |
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11-22-20 | Alex Perez v. Deiveson Figueiredo OVER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -170 | 24 h 22 m | Show |
8* Over Perez/Figueiredo (11:50 ET): This is for the UFC’s Flyweight Title and scheduled for five rounds. It is the main event of the evening. Though the champion Figueiredo is nearly a 3:1 favorite for this title defense, expect Perez to put up a fight and possibly even push this thing into the “championship rounds.” All we need is for the fight to make it to the halfway point of Round 2. Take the Over 1.5 rounds. Figueiredo is 19-1 and officially won the title back in July w/ a first round submission win over Joseph Benavidez. The Flyweight Division (125 lbs) has never been a real priority for the UFC, but hopefully Figueiredo is the guy to restore the title to the level it was at in the Demetrious Johnson days. Figueiredo has won four straight fights since suffering his only career loss, the last three wins all coming by stoppage. But stopping Perez may prove problematic as he’s only lost one time since 2016 (to Benavidez). Two straight first round finishes gave him this opportunity, but things obviously aren’t going to go that well for him here. Perez is a wrestler, so he’s going to look to get this fight down on the mat. If successful, a finish would surprise me. While an active striker, Perez is also good at “playing defense.” 8* Over Perez/Figueiredo |
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11-21-20 | Jennifer Maia v. Valentina Shevchenko OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show |
8* Over Maia/Shevchenko (11:25 ET): Here’s a fight with VERY long odds as the Women’s Flyweight Champion Shevchenko comes in as a massive favorite to retain her title. She obviously should, but I also expect this one to go a little longer than anticipated Saturday night. While she’s had many impressive victories, sometimes when matched with an opponent not willing to engage, things can get downright boring. Three of Shevchenko’s last five fights have gone to the scorecards. All these are five round fights remember. We don’t need to get nearly that far for this Over to cash as all we’re looking for is things to make it past the halfway point of Round 3. Shevchenko doesn’t have a first round finish since 2013 and the vast majority of her fights do end up in the judges’ hands. Only three of her L11 fights didn’t make it until the third round. Meanwhile, Maia had EIGHT straight fights go to decision before a 1st round submission win over Joanne Calderwood back in August. That landed her the title shot here. She’s been stopped only two times in her entire career and the last one was 2012! So she’ll make Shevchenko work for it here. 8* Over Maia/Shevchenko |
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11-21-20 | Jared Gooden v. Alan Jouban -145 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 41 m | Show |
10* Alan Jouban (7:40 ET): This fight is scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Welterweight Division. Jouban has been around for awhile now. “Brahma” made his UFC debut back in 2014 and is now 16-7 in his MMA career. He’s dropped three of four though, the most recent being by split decision to Dwight Grant. But that was all the way back in April of ‘19. Jouban looks to get back on track here against 17-4 Jared Gooden, who is on a three-fight win streak and making his UFC debut. Don’t be fooled by recent form though. Jouban is favored for a reason. Actually, this line opened up as a pick ‘em, but has seen Jouban get bet up significantly. That’s telling and something I often look for when betting these UFC undercard bouts. Jouban represents a big step up in competition from previous Gooden opponents, which is why I said not to be fooled by the respective fighters’ recent form. At age 37, this may be Jouban’s last shot in the UFC were he to come up short. I expect him to be quite motivated following a long layoff. Jouban went on quite the run back in 2016, often showing an incredible ability to come from behind after taking some punishment. At his current age, that’s now a bit of a concern. However, Gooden is someone he should stymie relatively easily. Gooden doesn’t have a consistent approach to winning and the fact he’s lost four times even before coming to the UFC is a concern. 10* Alan Jouban |
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11-21-20 | Sasha Palatnikov v. Louis Cosce UNDER 1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -154 | 19 h 35 m | Show |
8* Under Palatnikov/Cosce (6:40 ET): This is the one total on the undercard that I’m focused on. It’s the opener of the entire card, scheduled for three rounds, between a pair of welterweights making their respective UFC debuts. Don’t expect this fight to last very long though. I’m taking the Under 1.5 rounds. Cosce came through Dana White’s Contenders Series. He is 7-0 and brings in some serious knockout potential. All seven of his career victories have come via 1st round finish! The longest any of those seven fights went was 4:34. Four of his last five have been over within two minutes! So history is definitely on our side with this bet. Coming in as a big favorite, Cosce is likely to put this one to bed very early. Palatnikov is 5-2 and neither of his last two fights made it to Round 2. Again, just to be clear, this bet cashes as long as things end by the midway point of Round 2. Whether it's Cosce “doing what he does” or Palatnikov landing a “lucky punch,” this has all the makings of a very quick opener. Note Palatnikov used to fight at middleweight, so he could be stronger than expected. 8* Under Palatnikov/Cosce |
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11-14-20 | Kristina Williams v. Abdul Razak Alhassan UNDER 1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 52 h 48 m | Show |
8* Under Williams/Alhassan (8:55 ET): The co-main event of this Saturday’s Fight Night card is a welterweight battle between Khaos Williams (10-1) and Abdul Razak Alhassan (10-2). It shouldn't take long for it to be over. I don’t care who wins, just that we get a quick finish. This one will be over before we hit the halfway mark of Round 2. The matchup is pretty reminiscent of a previous Under play I had last month with Alan Baudot vs. Tom Aspinall. Take the Under 1.5 rounds here. Williams’ UFC debut was as short as it was spectacular. He won w/ a vicious 27 second knockout of Alex Morno, a 10-fight UFC vet. That’s nothing new for “Khaos” as four of his seven straight victories have ended in Round 1. But he’s an underdog here for a reason and that’s the book on Williams is he can be lured into a brawl and put away. That’s probably what’s going to happen here as he faces a much tougher opponent in Alhassan. Alhassan is off a decision loss to Mounir Lazzez back in July. But prior to that, 10 of his first 11 fights ended in Round 1. Ironically, the one exception was his only other loss, which came by decision. So we’ve got a fighter here w/ 10 career victories that have all come via first round stoppage. That’s pretty remarkable. History probably repeats itself in that regard here, though I’ll also take Williams replicating what he did last time out. Either way, this fight is not lasting long. 8* Under Williams/Alhassan |
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11-14-20 | Ashley Yoder v. Miranda Granger -150 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -150 | 51 h 20 m | Show |
8* Miranda Granger (6:20 ET): Oddsmakers initially saw this as an even fight, but sharp money has come in on Granger and I’m inclined to agree with it. This is a women’s strawweight bout, scheduled for three rounds, set to take part during the prelims. Granger has not fought in 2020 after suffering the first defeat of her career late last year. I’m banking on her being ready to roll Saturday night. Granger was 7-0 when she faced Amanda Lemos last December. But things didn't go well there as she was choked out in Round 1. Due to a health issue (blood clots in both lungs), she’s been out ever since. But signs point to a successful return on Saturday. Though she does not possess the reach advantage in this matchup with Ashley Yoder, Granger is the superior boxer. Yoder has never really demonstrated any kind of successful striking ability. In fact, Yoder is just 2-5 in the UFC, leaving her w/ a 7-6 career mark. Her status in the promotion is very much on the line here. Incredibly, all seven of her UFC fights have gone to a decision. Three were split decisions and she lost two of those. Yoder has now lost twice in a row, including a unanimous decision to Livina Souza back in August. While Yoder prefers to spend most of her time fighting on the mat, it’s not as if she’s a world-class grappler. She averages just 1.14 takedowns per 15 minutes and has only a 36% success rate with takedown attempts. Just not much to like there. 8* Miranda Granger |
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11-07-20 | Cláudia Gadelha v. Yan Xiaonan -143 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 31 h 54 m | Show |
8* Yan Xiaonan (10:10 ET): This is an intriguing fight in the strawweight division between a former title contender (Gadelha) and a potential future one in Xiaonan. My pick here hasn’t been quite as battle-tested as her opponent, but she is coming off a very impressive win over Karolina Kowalkiewcz that ran her record to 12-1, including a perfect 5-0 in UFC. Her lone loss was all the way back in 2010, so you might as well consider her to be unbeaten. Expect her to have her hand raised one more time Saturday night. Gadelha is 18-4 with two of the losses to former champ Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Her recent career has been marked by inactivity and an attempt to try to change her fighting style. She’s off a somewhat controversial split decision win over Angela Hill back in May, which was her second straight win, but also just her 4th fight since 2017. Stamina has long been an issue for Gadelha and that’s going to be a problem against a fighter who has proven she can go the distance and be successful. There’s a very good chance that this fight does make it to the scorecards. Neither woman has a recent finish on their resume. In fact, all five of Xiaonan’s wins in the UFC have been by decision. Gadelha may be the strongest opponent Xiaonan has faced to date, but as long as this fight stays on the feet, we’re going to be in good shape. Xiaonan is the better striker and don’t discount the fact she’ll have the edge the longer the fight goes. 8* Yia Xiaonan |
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10-24-20 | Justin Gaethje v. Khabib Nurmagomedov UNDER 4.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 27 h 53 m | Show |
7* Under Gaethje/Nurmagomedov (4:15 ET): This is the main event of UFC 254, a lightweight title unification bout scheduled for five rounds. Even if you don’t follow the UFC regularly, you probably know the name Khabib Nurmagomedov due to his feud and subsequent victory over Conor McGregor. He is 28-0 and widely considered the best fighter in the entire world. Even though Justin Gaethje should be considered a worthy challenger, Nurmagomedov is still listed as more than a 3/1 favorite. Although Nurmagomedov does have 10 victories by decision, three of those came very early in his career and only one time have we seen him go a full five rounds. All we are looking for here is the fight NOT to go to the judges and by simply taking the Under 4.5 that means a stoppage by EITHER fighter is a win for us. Yes, eight of Nurmagomedov’s last nine fights have made it to round three. But it is quite likely that eventually his chain wrestling simply overwhelmes Gaethje, earning another victory. Something to consider is that Nurmagomedov has lost just ONE round in 12 UFC fights! Gaethje is a bit of a “wild card” in this bout as 20 of his 22 wins have come via stoppage. Nine of those have come in the first round, including three of his last four wins. So if Gaethje does “shock the world” Saturday afternoon, it isn’t likely to be by decision. Stylistically, these fighters couldn’t be more different as Gaethje has spent just 1% of his time in the Octagon on the mat while Nurmagomedov spends almost 50% of his time there. Eventually one of the fighters (likely Nurmagomedov) is going to exert their will over the other and this will end before the final bell rings, probably in Rd 3 or 4. 7* Under Gaethje/Nurmagomedov |
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10-17-20 | Fares Ziam v. Jamie Mullarkey -140 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -140 | 45 h 31 m | Show |
10* Jamie Mullarkey (5:10 ET): This prelim bout is scheduled for three rounds. We’ve got two fighters from the lightweight division (155lbs) that are both looking for their first ever UFC win. Mullarkey, who is 12-3 in his pro MMA career, is fighting for the first time in over a year. His UFC debut was a pretty exciting affair as he lost a unanimous decision to Brad Riddell, a result that doesn’t look bad at all in retrospect seeing how Riddell has progressed since that time. I expect Mullarkey to get his hand raised on Saturday night. Fares Ziam is 10-3 in his career and his UFC debut also came a little over a year ago. Like Mullarkey, it was a decision loss, although in the case of Ziam he was a lot less competitive and really got dominated over the 15 minutes by Don Madge. Ziam does have some good kickboxing ability, but didn’t get to show that against Madge and instead was just bullied up against the cage and lost most of the grappling exchanges. Ziam never really could escape Madge’s clinch. If Riddle couldn’t put Mullarkey away, Ziam certainly shouldn’t be able to. Meanwhile, all but one of Mullarkey’s 12 wins have been finishes. He has eight knockouts and three submissions in his career. Mullarkey should get the best of the wrestling in this one and Ziam’s greatest asset (his reach) won’t be a factor here either as Mullarkey has a similar reach. 10* Jamie Mullarkey |
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10-10-20 | Markus Perez v. Dricus Du Plessis -155 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 47 h 22 m | Show |
10* Dricus Du Plessis (9:05 ET): Du Plessis has more than just a cool-sounding name as he comes to the UFC with plenty of hype. Now his fellow South Africans have not always found success inside the Octagon, but he may be the one to buck that trend as he arrives with a 14-2 career record. I look for him to win this Middleweight (185 lb) fight over Markus Perez (12-3). Du Plessis has solid striking and good wrestling, which is the combo you look for in a fighter. Since 2015, he’s gone 10-1 with every win being a finish (either submission or TKO). This will not only be his 1st fight in the UFC, but it is also his 1st fight of 2020. He’s mainly fought for the KSW promotion over in Poland as well as Extreme Fighting Championship (EFC). Watch for his guillotine choke as that’s the manner four of his last seven victories have come by. Perez also likes to choke out his opponents, but he’s certainly a more one-dimensional fighter compared to Du Plessis. Perez does have experience in the Octagon as this will be his 6th fight for the UFC, but he’s gone just 2-3 thus far. He also has not yet fought in 2020 as he’s coming off a decision loss to Wellington Turman back in December. I’m not sure Du Plessis will finish Perez, but in the end he’ll get his hand raised in his UFC debut. 10* Dricus Du Plessis |
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10-10-20 | Alan Baudot v. Tom Aspinall UNDER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 47 h 59 m | Show |
8* Under Baudot/Aspinall (8:35 ET) - This is a heavyweight fight scheduled for three rounds. Don’t look for it to go very long. Tom Aspinall is a heavy favorite here and likely to end things quickly, however, the safer bet is to take the Under (1.5 rounds). That way we win no matter who finishes who. Aspinall is certainly an intriguing prospect in the Heavyweight Division. He’s got size, athleticism and most importantly, some serious knockout power. He took a few years off to try boxing, but since returning to the world of MMA he’s gone 3-0 with none of the fights lasting longer than 81 seconds! His UFC debut took place back in June and lasted just 45 seconds as he TKO’d Jake Collier. Aspinall’s penchant for short fights is nothing new. All eight of his professional victories have ended in Round 1! His two losses both ended in Round 2. Alan Boudot is a natural Light Heavyweight, so it will be interesting to see what his strategy is here against a larger opponent. He’s going to be a lot faster than most fighters Aspinall has faced previously. This is Baudot’s UFC debut and like Aspinall he has a history of quick fights. Six of his nine career bouts have ended in the 1st round. Durability and stamina is a legit question mark for both of these fighters and with the respective histories of such short fights, I don’t see any way this one makes it past the halfway point of Round 2. It’ll likely be over in less than five minutes. 8* Under Baudot/Aspinall |
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10-03-20 | Germaine de Randamie -110 v. Julianna Pena | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 54 h 23 m | Show |
10* Germaine de Randamie (11:30 ET): This is a three-round fight scheduled at women’s bantamweight. It pits Germaine de Randamie (9-4) against Julianna Pena (9-3). Stylistically, this is a very interesting fight as de Randamie is the best technical striker you’ll find on the entire fight card Saturday night. Pena is someone who spends an abnormal amount of her time fighting on the mat. Something will have to give here and I believe it’ll be de Randamie that ultimately gets her hand raised. de Randamie is the former featherweight champion. She never lost that title due as she vacated it, rather than facing Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino, whom she suspected was using steroids. She has fought only three times since vacating the title, winning two and then losing to Amanda Nunes (by decision) back in December. One of those two victories was a 16 second TKO of Aspen Ladd. Nunes, arguably the greatest women’s fighter ever and now the reigning champ in both the bantamweight & featherweight divisions, is the only person to defeat de Randamie since 2011 (did so twice). De Randamie had won six in a row before the 2nd loss to Nunes. The key here for de Randamie is to keep the fight standing. If she does, it should be an easy victory. Pena is 5-1 in her L6 fights, but has fought only one time since 2017 (due to pregnancy) and that was a Jan 2019 decision victory over Nicco Montano (which took place on the undercard of de Randamie-Ladd). A big eye-opener from the Montano fight is that Pena did NOT dominate on the mat. I don’t think she’ll be able to get this fight down on the ground very often and that spells doom for the “Venezuelan Vixen.” 10* Germaine de Randamie |
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10-03-20 | Dequan Townsend v. Dusko Todorovic OVER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 54 h 33 m | Show |
6* Over Townsend/Todorovic (10:40 ET): This is a middleweight fight, scheduled for three rounds. While it may not go the distance, it doesn’t have to as all the oddsmakers are calling for is a fight that makes it halfway through Round 2. I think it’ll easily get to that point as I’m on the Over 1.5 rounds here. The undefeated Dusko Todorovic is 9-0 as he’s set to make his “official” UFC debut Saturday night. He had to withdraw back in July when he was scheduled to fight John Phillips. Replacement Khamzat Chimaev certainly made the most of the opportunity Todorovic afforded him there. Todorovic’s last official fight was part of Dana White’s Contenders Series, 14 months ago as he outlasted Teddy Ash by decision. That’s his only fight since 2018. With it being his UFC debut off such a long layoff, expect a cautious start from the Serbian. Dequan Townsend is 21-11 in his career and this will be his 4th fight for the UFC. Interestingly enough, it will be his 1st UFC fight where he is NOT a replacement for someone else! To this point, he’s been unsuccessful in the UFC (0-3) so with his spot in the promotion likely on the line here I don’t expect him to throw “caution to the wind” either. Townsend doesn’t go down easy as only two of those 11 losses have been by stoppage (nine via decision). All three UFC fights have made it to Rd 3 and two were decisions. 6* Over Townsend/Todorovic |
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09-26-20 | Danilo Marques v. Khadis Ibragimov UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -135 | 28 h 50 m | Show |
10* Under Marques/Ibragimov (7:00 ET): This fight will kick off the UFC 253 card prelims and it’s scheduled for three rounds at Light Heavyweight (205 lbs). Ibragimov is 8-3 while Marques is 9-2, but these fighters are very much at different stages of their respective careers. Ibragimov is very much fighting for his UFC career here while Marques is making his promotion debut. Regardless of who gets their hand raised, don’t look for this one to get to the cards. Under 2.5 rounds is the pick Saturday night. Ibragimov was 8-0, but he’s 0-3 fighting under the UFC banner. So you can see how his spot is now in jeopardy. He’s been stopped in two of those three losses and in his lone appearance since the pandemic began, it was a 1st round TKO that he suffered at the hands of Roman Dolidze. In his last eight fights, only one time have the judges had to render a decision. Eight of Marques’ nine wins have been by stoppage. He hasn’t fought since 2018 though as he had a bout cancelled back in March. While I can see this fight certainly getting off to a “slow start,” neither fighter is all that talented and one is quite likely to make a mistake. That lends itself to a finish, one way or another. It should be a relatively brief opener on the UFC 253 card. 10* Under Marques/Ibragimov |
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09-19-20 | Darren Stewart v. Kevin Holland OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 57 h 18 m | Show |
10* Over Stewart/Holland (8:00 ET): This is a three-round fight at middleweight (185 lbs). Both fighters are off impressive finishes over the summer, but do not be surprised if the first fight on the main card Saturday night requires the heavily favored Holland to rely on the judges to emerge victorious. I’m taking the Over 2.5 rounds in this one. Holland had a wild UFC debut two years ago when he lost to Thiago Santos. Since then, he’s gone 5-1 with three finishes. Both of his fights in 2020 have ended with him TKO’ing his opponents - Joaquin Buckley and Anthony Hernandez. Now 18-5 overall in his pro career, Holland has won 14 of his last 17 and two of those losses were by decision. It should also be noted that his last fight did go into the third round, albeit it was then over in 47 seconds. Stewart is facing a major size disadvantage in this fight, so it would be best for him to be cautious and pick his spots. He’s won five of his last six UFC fights, but those were all against inferior competition than what he’ll be up against at Fight Night 178. He also lost a “one-off” for the Cage Warriors promotion back in the early stages of the pandemic. Both losses were by decision. In fact, Stewart had a streak of four straight fights ending in a decision before submitting Maki Pitolo last month. This one goes longer than expected. 10* Over Stewart/Holland |
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09-12-20 | Alan Patrick v. Bobby Green -250 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 27 h 32 m | Show |
6* Bobby Green (8:35 ET): While it’s a lot of juice to lay, in my opinion Bobby Green is worth the investment here in this three round fight at welterweight (170 lbs). Green has fought a lot in his career, especially during the pandemic, and this will be his third fight in as many months! He’s won each of the last two, both by decision, and should have little difficulty here in finishing off Alves. Green’s 26-10-1 record is a tad bit misleading as he’s been on the wrong end of some questionable decisions. Each of Green’s previous SEVEN fights have gone to the cards with him winning three, losing three and another ruled a draw. I say it’s “high time” for him to finish somebody and not leave things up to the three cageside observers. Green likes to stand and strike (plus talk a little trash!) and will have a major advantage when this fight is up off the mat. Alves has not fought since October, so it’s a long layoff. I think he’s at a severe disadvantage going against an opponent that’s been so active recently. Alves is landing only 43% of his strikes, which is a bad number, and coming off a KO loss to Scott Holtzman. He’ll want to take Green down in this fight, but again his takedown percentage of 40% indicates that’s easier said than done. It’s not just that Alves hasn’t fought since October. He has just seven fights in the last seven years! 6* Bobby Green |
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09-12-20 | Kyle Nelson v. Billy Quarantillo UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
10* Under Nelson/Quarantillo (8:00 ET): Both fighters are high on confidence in this one and that’s what we’re looking for as we predict a finish (either way) in the Billy Quarantillo-Kyle Nelson fight, scheduled for three rounds at featherweight (145 lbs). Nelson, who is the big favorite, has gone so far as to predict a first round knockout. Quarantillo is known as a finisher and has gone on the record as being “100% confident” he will finish Nelson. Either way, I’d be happy as I’m taking the Under at 2.5 rounds. This will be Quarantillo’s first time entering the Octagon since a COVID-19 diagnosis in June. That diagnosis actually resulted in the cancellation of another fight (Frank Camacho-Matt Frevola) as Quarantillo was set to corner Frevola. The last time Quarantillo stepped into the Octagon proper was May when he outlasted Spike Carlyle in a decision victory. Now 14-2 in his career, Quarantillo is on a 7-fight win streak. Before the decision win in May, the previous five had all come via submission or TKO. This is an exciting fighter, but a lack of defense is a concern, especially against an opponent the caliber of Nelson. Nelson had his own set of issues getting back into the Octagon. A bout scheduled for 6.27 against Sean Woodson had to be nixed over a visa problem. So Nelson has not fought in nearly a year since KO’ing Marco Polo Reyes last September. Before that, he’d lost two in a row and was stopped each time. Nelson also has issues defensively and with just one of his previous nine fights making it to the scorecards, to me this fight is an easy call to end early. 10* Under Nelson/Quarantillo |
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09-05-20 | Augusto Sakai v. Alistair Overeem OVER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 30 h 7 m | Show |
6* Over Sakai/Overeem (11:55 ET): Last week, I took the Over in a heavyweight main event and it’s the same call here at UFC Fight Night 176. While scheduled for five rounds, Alistair Overeem (46-18) and Augusto Sakai (15-1-1) only needs to make it deep into the second for this bet to hit. I think it will. Overeem has certainly “been around the block” once or twice, as you can tell from 64 career fights. A former champion other promotions, Overeem is currently ranked #5 in the UFC’s Heavyweight Division as he’s won three of his previous four fights, including a TKO of Walt Harris back in May. That TKO happened at the 3:00 mark of Round 2, which is where we need to get to in this fight. While he does have a couple of fairly recent first round finishes on his resume, before the Harris win we saw Overeem go all the way to the fifth round in an unsuccessful bout with Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Sakai is a lot more disciplined than Harris (Overeem’s last opponent), which is one of the reasons I’m thinking Over. Unlike many other heavyweights, Sakai is not a fighter that looks to end things with “one punch,” although 11 of his 15 wins have come via stoppage. But two of his last three wins have been by decision and what’s relevant about that is he’s only fought five times for the UFC. Overeem will be one of Sakai’s biggest challenges to date and thus I’m expecting a cautious approach to this fight, at least early. 6* Over Sakai/Overeem |
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08-29-20 | Anthony Smith v. Aleksandar Rakic OVER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 26 h 42 m | Show |
8* Over Rakic/Smith (11:15 ET): This is the main event for UFC Fight Night 175. It’s a light heavyweight bout. Despite being the main event, it’s only scheduled for three rounds as it got top billing on short notice and thus it wasn’t fair to ask the fighters to go five when they’d only been training for three. With this Over bet, we don’t need them to go the distance though, only to make it past the halfway mark of Round 2. I think that’s going to happen. Rakic is the lower ranked fighter (8th) within the LHW Division, but is a prohibitive favorite to defeat Smith (5th). Oddsmakers see his youth as an advantage and he should have the striking advantage. Really, he’s better in every aspect than Smith, so throw those rankings out the window. However, it should be noted Rakic hasn’t faced the same level of competition as has Smith. The crafty veteran should not be overlooked here and he can make a fight of this, or at least extend the bout. Both fighters are off losses. Smith fell to Glover Teixeira via 5th round TKO back in May. It was his fourth consecutive fight that made it to at least the third round. He doesn’t have many decisions on his career resume, but we don’t need to get that far here to cash. Rakic was on a 12-fight win streak when he lost to Volkan Oezdemir back in December in a split decision. It was the third time in his last five fights it was left up to the judge’s. Despite both fighters having reputations as finishers, recent history suggests this one is going longer than expected. 8* Over Rakic/Smith |
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08-29-20 | Emily Whitmire -132 v. Polyana Viana | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -132 | 22 h 32 m | Show |
10* Emily Whitmire (7:40 ET): This is a three-round fight in the women’s strawweight division (115 lbs). It was originally scheduled to take place at UFC 248, but Whitmire missed weight (by 1.5 lbs) then had to be hospitalized for a bad weight cut. I think she’s got a lot to prove Saturday night as it will be her first fight in over a year, plus she’s coming off a loss. Her opponent has not tasted much success of late and I believe will be “slim pickings” in this one. Polyana Viana is 10-4 in her career with all 10 victories coming via stoppage. But she enters this fight having lost three in a row, leaving her UFC status very much in jeopardy. Viana was 9-1 when she came to the UFC, but has just won once fighting for the promotion and that was back in February of 2018. She’s since lost twice by decision and then her last time out (also just over a year ago) saw her submitted for the first time ever - in just over a minute. I don’t think there’s much reason to believe in her in this spot. Her record was built up against inferior competition. As I mentioned earlier, Whitmire is also off a loss and it too was via submission (at the hands of Amanda Ribas). While just 4-3 in her pro career, “Spitfire” has never dropped B2B fights, which differentiates here from Viana. She’s also 2-2 in UFC. Fighting at strawweight is much better suited to Whitmire than it is to Viana (both have also fought at flyweight). Look for Whitmire to get her hand raised in this one. 10* Emily Whitmire |
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08-22-20 | Shana Dobson v. Mariya Agapova UNDER 1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 47 h 46 m | Show |
10* Under Agapova/Dobson (7:00 ET): This is a fight scheduled for three rounds in the UFC’s Women’s Flyweight Division (125 lbs). Agapova is a massive favorite here (-1250 on the ML) so you should expect this one to be over in relatively quick fashion. I’m willing to bet it doesn’t even make it past the halfway mark of Round 2. That’s the bet here. Agapova brings a 9-1 career record into this fight. Her UFC debut came two months ago and it took only 2:42 for her to submit Hannah Cifers. It was Agapova’s third straight 1st round finish overall. Her last four wins have all taken less than a round as have six of the nine career victories. If she does have a weakness in her game, it’s on the defensive end as she’s prone to take a shot or two. Dobson’s only real shot here would be to land one big punch and that would be fine by me, provided it comes no later than early in the second round. Dobson is just 3-4 and it’s fairly shocking to see her even fighting for the UFC at this point. She’s lost her last three fights. Two were by decision, but then in February she was KO’d in just 40 seconds by Priscila Cachoeira. Agapova called Dobson out by name after her win in June, so there must be some personal point to prove here. It likely won’t take long to prove. 10* Under Agapova/Dobson |
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08-15-20 | Jim Miller v. Vinc Pichel OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 48 h 32 m | Show |
10* Over Pichel/Miller (9:35 ET): This is a lightweight fight (155 lbs) scheduled for three rounds between Jim Miller (32-14) and Vinc Pichel (12-2). Both fighters will be north of 36 when they hit the cage Saturday night and both are coming off victories over the same fighter (Roosevelt Roberts) in their respective last fights. But that is where the similarities largely end between the two. I see this as a fight likely to go to the judges and will take the Over. This will be Miller’s 47th pro fight and his second in the last three months. He submitted Roberts back in June at UFC on ESPN 11, needing only 2:25 to do so. Three of his last four fights have gotten “Fight of the Night” honors. Surprisingly, only one of the last seven (a loss to Scott Holzman back in February), have made it to the cards. The other six, win or lose, have all ended in the first round! But that recent rash of quick fights plays a large hand in dictating this play. Before these L7 fights, Miller went to five straight decisions. Pichel is actually older than Miller but has just 14 career fights to Miller’s 47. Pichel last fought in June of ‘19 when he beat Roberts by decision. Because of injuries, this will be just the third fight for Pichel in the last two years. So he’s been far less active compared to Miller. Four of his last six fights have gone to decision. Though he’s won five of his six UFC fights, Pichel doesn’t have much punching power, so Miller is safe in that regard. Look for this fight to go to the ground and stay there for much of the time. 10* Over Pichel/Miller |
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08-08-20 | Omari Akhmedov v. Chris Weidman -135 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 33 h 35 m | Show |
10* Chris Weidman (10:45 ET): I feel that Weidman, the former Middleweight Champ, is set for a dominant performance when he sets foot inside the Octagon Saturday night against Omari Akhmedov. He needs it. Things have not gone well for the “All American” since unseating Anderson Silva back in 2013. Weidman has lost five of his last six fights including a failed try to move up to LHW. He’e back down to 185 lbs for this fight and calling it a “must win” would be putting it mildly. Akhmedov is a 7-year vet of the UFC and has a 20-4-1 record. Akhmedov is 5-0-1 in his L6 fights, so the respective fighters definitely come in sporting much different form. But remember that he has not faced the caliber of competition that Weidman has. It would have been unthinkable even a year ago to be able to get Weidman as these kind of odds against a fighter like Akhmedov. I’ll jump at the opportunity. Important to factor in that Akhmedov used to fight at Welterweight, so he’s going to be at a size disadvantage inside the cage. In what promises to be a bit of a grappling contest, the size edge should come into play for Weidman. I’m not ready to give up on this former champ yet, despite recent form. 10* Chris Weidman |
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08-08-20 | Scott Holtzman v. Beneil Dariush -179 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 32 h 33 m | Show |
8* Baniel Darisuh (9:15 ET): Dariush is certainly a fighter worth keeping your eyes on Saturday as he comes off three consecutive “Fight of the Night” victories, all finishes. He’s on a four-fight win streak overall, which has him at 18-4 in his career. I like Dariush to continue rolling Saturday in a fight scheduled for three-rounds at lightweight (155 lbs). This will be the opener of the main card. Because of how deep the LW division is, Dariush is still relatively going unnoticed with the exception of some die-hard fans and bettors. That’s fine by me as it means we’re able to grab him at a pretty good value for this fight. The key against Scott Holtzman will be Darisuh’s superior striking ability. Although don’t discount his takedowns either. Each of Dariush’s last four fights (all wins) have seen him land at least one takedown. Holtzman has never been finished in his pro MMA career, however only three of his past nine wins have been by way other than decision. I see him being at a disadvantage either standing or on the ground, so it’s a clear fade here. Holtzman just isn’t that great of a defensive fighter and that spells doom against an opponent such as this. 8* Baneil Dariush |
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07-25-20 | Jai Herbert v. Francisco Trinaldo -137 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 53 h 4 m | Show |
10* Francisco Trinaldo (9:05 ET): This is a lightweight fight (155 lbs) scheduled for three rounds. Trinaldo comes in with a 25-7 record while Herbert is 10-1. The key to this fight, at least in my opinion, boils down to Trinaldo’s experience at the UFC level. Trinaldo has been fighting for the promotion since 2012. He’s won B2B fights, including one back in March, a unanimous decision over John Makdessi. Herbert is making his UFC debut here and that’s obviously a big jump from previous competition. He in fact just quit his day job so that he could become a UFC fighter full-time. HIs last fight was back in October 2019. Though he was actually outstruck in his previous fight, Trinaldo has excellent striking numbers throughout his career. He dishes out far more than he absorbs. While Herbert’s last several victories have all come by knockout, that was against lesser competition. Trinaldo will obviously need to guard against the knockout here, but I just don’t believe Herbert has what it takes to grind out a three round victory at this level. 10* Francisco Trinaldo |
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02-29-20 | Travis Browne v. Jordan Griffin -123 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 26 h 15 m | Show |
10* Jordan Griffin (5:55 ET): This is a three-round fight in the featherweight division (145 lbs). It takes place on the preliminary portion of the card and can be viewed if you have ESPN+. Griffin has fought twice under the UFC banner and yet to emerge victorious. However, both fights were exciting and could have gone either way. Without question, Griffin is an aggressive fighter that looks to “push the action.” He’s 17-7 overall in his MMA career and a more proven commodity than his opponent Saturday. The fact he’s yet to have his hand raised in UFC competition will certainly have him motivated here. The “Native Psycho” had won 9 of his 10 fights prior to becoming an official member of the UFC roster and has not been stopped since 2014. Brown, like Griffin, got his spot via Dana White’s “Contender Series.” He too is an aggressive fighter. There is a good chance this fight does not go the distance, but regardless if it does, you can look for Griffin to have his hand raised. Unlike Griffin, Brown has not fought on a UFC card proper. He’s been stopped in each of his last two losses. Despite the relatively close odds for this fight, I see a significant edge for Griffin. 10* Jordan Griffin |
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02-15-20 | Mara Romero Borella v. Montana De La Rosa -170 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 59 m | Show |
]10* Montana De La Rosa (9:35 ET): This is a women’s flyweight bout, scheduled for three rounds. De La Rosa comes in at 10-5 while Mara Romero Borella is 12-6. De La Rosa is off a loss to unanimous decision loss to Andrea Lee back in June. But before that, she was on a three-fight win streak. All three wins saw her stop her opponent. I expect her to be the far more aggressive fighter in tonight’s bout and score with the judges often. From her opponents’ perspective, Borella has a rather frustrating approach that often keeps them at bay. She too is off a loss, her’s back in August against Lauren Murphy by third round TKO. She’s lost two of her past three fights and has only one win since 2017. I just don’t think she’s the same caliber of fighter as De La Rosa. 10* Montana De La Rosa |
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01-18-20 | Andre Fili v. Sodiq Yusuff -130 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
10* Sodiq Yusuff (9:15 ET): This is a fight scheduled for three rounds at flyweight (125 lbs). While it has the chance to be one of the more exciting and action-packed bouts on tonight’s card, I’m taking Yusuff to win. Yusuff comes in sporting a 10-1 record. Having made his way into the UFC via Dana White’s “Contender Series,” Yusuff has won his last five fights, three of them in the first round. His only loss was in 2017 and he’s improved tremendously since then. He looked great in August’s 1st round TKO of Gabriel Benitez. Yusuff is the stronger and more athletic fighter here. Fili is also on a win streak, but the lack of a good defensive game makes it tough to believe he’ll emerge victorious here. Unlike Yusuff, Fili has multiple losses on his resume, six to be exact. He was 2-0 last year, but lost once in 2018. Coming off a 1st round KO himself, it feels as if Fili is a little bit overvalued for this fight. Before that last win, he hadn’t stopped an opponent since 2015. 10* Sodiq Yusuff |