Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-29-22 | Nottingham +125 v. Huddersfield Town | Top | 1-0 | Win | 125 | 50 h 40 m | Show |
10* Nottingham Forest (11:30 AM ET): It’s come down to this, one final “winner take all” match to decide the third team from the EFL Championship to get promoted to the Premier League for next season. We already Fulham and AFC Bournemouth are heading back to the top flight. Either Nottingham Forest or Huddersfield Town will join them, replacing Burnley, who was condemned to relegation last weekend. (Watford and Norwich City are the other two EPL sides that were relegated). I’m calling for Nottingham Forest to win here inside of 90 minutes + stoppage time. Though Huddersfield finished third and Nottingham fourth (two points difference), it was the latter that had a far better goal differential this campaign. Nottingham has a +33 YTD GD, which was on par with Bournemouth (+35). Huddersfield was only +17. The clubs have met three times over the course of the season with Nottingham winning twice, including 2-1 in the FA Cup back in March, which was the most recent fixture. Nottingham did have to survive on penalties in the semifinals against Sheffield United (who was a Premier League team a season ago). But that was after having what looked like a commanding 3-1 lead (on aggregate) going into the second half of the second leg. Forest has been the best side in the Championship since Steve Cooper’s first game in charge (Sept 25), taking 76 points from 38 matches and conceding the fewest number of goals. They lost fewer games than both Fulham and Bournemouth during that stretch. Huddersfield is on its own impressive streak, which includes a 17-match unbeaten run from Dec 4 through March 11th, but they needed a late goal (82nd minute) to escape Luton Town in the semis of these playoffs. At the end of the day, I simply believe Nottingham is the better side here. 10* Nottingham Forest |
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05-25-22 | Feyenoord +0.25 v. Roma | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -116 | 17 h 52 m | Show |
9* Feyenoord Goal Line (3:00 ET): The inaugural season of the Europa Conference League has a Final of Roma (representing Serie A) vs. Feyenoord (representing the Dutch Eredivisie). Neither came close to winning their respective domestic leagues this season as Roma was sixth (23 points off the pace) while Feyenoord was third (12 points off). Serie A is rightfully considered the stronger league and thus Roma is unsurprisingly the favorite for this fixture. I did play Jose Mourinho’s side (Roma) in the semis (as a Game of the Year) when they defeated Leicester City 1-0. But Feyenoord has been the better side throughout this particular competition and thus is worth the play on the goal line Wednesday. Feyenoord has gone undefeated in the Europa Conference League, scoring 28 goals in the process. Remember that by playing them this way (on the goal line), all we need is Feyenoord to be even at the end of 90 minutes + stoppage time. A win would not surprise me considering how dominant the contingent from Rotterdam has been. They were unbeaten across their last 11 competitions before taking a meaningless loss in the Eredivisie finale. The Europa Conference League’s leading scorer is in Feyenoord’s ranks as Cyriel Dessers has tallied 10 goals. I think the big key here is Feyenoord’s attack, which is a stark contrast to the Roma approach under Mourinho. Serie A wasn’t particularly impressive in European football this season with no Italian club making the quarterfinals of the Champions League and only one making the quarterfinals of the Europa League. Roma did win for me in the Serie A finale, 3-0 over Torino, but before that they hadn’t prevailed in any of their previous five league games. Feyenoord scored three times in the first leg of its semifinal vs. Marseille and was pretty close to Ajax in xG this season in the Eredivisie. 9* Feyenoord (Goal Line) |
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05-22-22 | Cagliari -145 v. Venezia | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -145 | 30 h 45 m | Show |
8* Cagliari (3:00 ET): It’s the final matchday of the season in Serie A. While most are going to be concerned with the two Noon ET fixtures, involving AC Milan and Inter, the two sides battling out for the league championship, don’t forget that (later in the day) there’s a relegation battle to be sorted out. Genoa and Venezia have already been condemned down to Serie B for next season, but the third relegation spot has not yet been decided. It will either be Salernitana or Cagliari. Not only must Cagliari win here to have a chance of survival, they need Salernitana to do no better than a draw against Udinese. Cagliari can only handle its own business, but you have to like their chances of doing so as they face last place Venezia on Sunday. Venezia is one of only two sides in Europe’s “Big 5” leagues to have recorded fewer points than Cagliari since March. I realize that as bad as Venezia has been, things have not been much brighter for Cagliari, who could only manage a 1-1 draw with Salernitana and lost to Genoa recently. But if the Rossoblu cannot win here, then it certainly could be said they are deserving of a demotion down to Serie B. I believe Cagliari gets the full three points here. Venezia should have lost last week to Roma, who missed two penalties, not to mention completely dominated in terms of shots and possession. The team at the foot of the Serie A table has now picked up four points from their last two matches (beat Bologna two weeks ago). Of course, it was “all for naught” as they are already confirmed for relegation. This is actually the first time Venezia has gone two straight matches without defeat since November! Given the circumstance the opposition is in, it’s VERY difficult for me to see the hosts even sharing the points on Sunday. They are down to their third string goaltender and there’s a long line of suspensions for this final matchday. 8* Cagliari |
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05-22-22 | Cadiz CF -116 v. Alavés | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 29 h 44 m | Show |
10* Cadiz (2:00 ET): Cadiz MUST pick up points here or they will be relegated to La Liga 2 (the Segunda Division). They enter the final matchday of the season level on points with Mallorca (36) but would lose the tiebreaker due to head to head points. There’s a third side (Granada) that is also involved in the relegation battle right now. They are one point ahead of both Mallorca and Cadiz, so what it boils down to here is that Cadiz really needs to win Sunday. While not in control of their own destiny, they could not have asked for a better opponent in Alaves, who we already know is getting relegated next season. Alaves is the last place team in La Liga and Levante’s win on Friday assured they’ll stay in the basement no matter what they do here. That Levante result really “kills” any motivation for Alaves, who had been showing glimpses prior to last week’s tough 3-1 loss to Levante, which sealed their relegation. Alaves has actually alternated wins and losses over their last six fixtures, but I cannot see the trend continuing here as it certainly does not help that Gonzalo Escalante, the club’s second-leading scorer, is forced to sit this final match out due to picking up a second yellow card last week. Despite sitting in the drop zone, Cadiz has shown improvement of late as they have faced each of La Liga’s top eight sides over their last 11 matches, a stretch which has seen them pick up an admirable 15 points and lose just four times. It was disappointing that Cadiz could only share the points last week vs. Real Madrid (who rested starters). But in any other circumstance, a 1-1 draw with the league champs would be cause for celebration. They’ve now failed to win two straight, but one would have to go back to February to find the last time Cadiz went three straight w/o picking up the full three points at least once. In their biggest match of the season, I expect them to get the job done. 10* Cadiz |
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05-22-22 | Manchester United v. Crystal Palace +0.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 37 h 46 m | Show |
10* Crystal Palace Goal Line (11:00 AM ET): While most will be focused on the race for the Premier League Title (Man City or Liverpool), the race for the fourth Champions League spot (Tottenham or Arsenal), or the relegation battle (Burnley or Leeds), there is one other race to be settled in the EPL on Sunday. It is to determine who finishes sixth and joins either Tottenham or Arsenal (likely the latter) in the Europa League. The “contestants” are Manchester United, in action here, and West Ham. Man U enters the final matchday with a two point lead over the Hammers, but likely needs more than a draw here based on their inferior goal differential. I’m not convinced they get it. Crystal Palace has been one of the EPL’s more underrated sides this campaign. The Eagles may only sit 13th in the table, but they actually have a better GD than Manchester United. Not only do they sit seventh in the league in GD, they are sixth in expected points! Quite frankly, Palace has played better football this season than has United, especially of late. While the Eagles did just blow a 2-0 lead Thursday at a highly motivated Everton side (who was looking to secure safety from relegation), they had previously gone unbeaten in their prior four matches. Palace could finish as high as 10th with a win here, which would be their highest Premier League finish in some time. Remember that they made it all the way to the FA Cup semis as well. Manchester United hasn’t played in almost two weeks, when it suffered arguably its most humiliating defeat of the season, 4-0 at the hands of Brighton & Hove Albion. Honestly, it’s difficult to make the case that the Red Devils are deserving of the Europa League. They will finish with their worst ever point total in a Premier League season. No matter what happens Sunday, all will not be lost as they’ll still end up in the Europa Conference League if West Ham does end up jumping them in the table. Playing for a lame duck manager, I can just not see United doing better than a draw in this circumstance. Palace has been the better side and is deserving of a Top 10 finish. Play the underdog on the Goal Line. 10* Crystal Palace (Goal Line) |
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05-21-22 | Empoli v. Atalanta UNDER 4 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
10* Under Empoli/Atalanta (2:45 ET): Atalanta enters the final matchday of their Serie A season in desperate need of a result. They are tied with Fiorentina (both at 59 points) but lose the tiebreaker based on head to head points. That means Atalanta must finish ahead of La Viola in order to qualify for the Europa Conference League, a spot that only opened up because the winners of the Coppa Italia (Inter) had already qualified for the Champions League, so the corresponding Europa League spot is then passed down to the sixth place finisher (clinched by Roma) on Friday. If Fiorentina loses to Juventus on Saturday, then a draw will suffice here for Atalanta. La Dea may not want to leave that to chance though. Still, I suspect this fixture will be lower scoring than the reverse, which saw Atalanta prevail 4-1. Empoli has endured a simply dreadful run of form lately, winning just ONCE in their last 21 matches! That run has seen them slip only to 14th in the table, well clear of the relegation zone, which last year’s Serie B champs will gladly take as the only goal this season was to survive and remain in the Italian top flight. Last week, Empoli could only muster a 1-1 draw with relegation-threatened Salernitana. Now Atalanta’s recent form hasn’t been so great either, which is why they are in this predicament. They’ve posted only two wins in their last 10 matches and those victories came against Spezia and Venezia, two bottom of the table sides, the latter having already been relegated. Atalanta couldn’t even get on the scoresheet last week vs. AC Milan, losing 2-0. Goal differential does not matter to La Dea here, all they need is one goal and then try to hold Empoli off for the three points. Not sure if Fiorentina will cooperate, but the task at hand seems rather easy for Atalanta this week. 10* Under Empoli/Atalanta |
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05-21-22 | RB Leipzig +102 v. SC Freiburg | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 39 m | Show |
10* RB Leipzig (2:00 ET): Though the Bundesliga season has concluded, we’re not yet quite done with German football in 2021/22. Thursday saw me cash the 1st leg of the promotion/relegation playoff with Hamburg SV. Now we’ve got the Final of the DFB Pokal, the second most prestigious club title in all of Germany, between Freiburg and RB Leipzig. Considering the respective ends to the Bundesliga season for these two sides, I think there’s only one way to play this one. I just can’t see how Freiburg “gets up” after an extremely disappointing final matchday. If you don’t know, Leipzig finished 4th and Freiburg 6th in the Bundesliga table. That means Leipzig is going to the Champions League next season while Freiburg is stuck in the less prestigious Europa League. Freiburg was in fourth with two matches left, but picked up zero points down the stretch, losing to Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen, the latter being decided by a goal in the seventh minute of stoppage time. That coincided with Leipzig getting a stoppage time equalizer against Arminia Bielefeld to ensure it finished top four. Despite these clubs playing to a pair of 1-1 draws during the Bundesliga season and finishing only three points apart, I think there’s a strong argument that Leipzig is vastly superior. They were second in the Bundesliga in expected points (Freiburg was 6th) and Leipzig had the far better goal differential. In fact, Leipzig was also second in GD (+35) while Freiburg was only +12. This will be the first time in club history that Freiburg is playing for the German Cup while Leipzig is here for the third time in the last four years (lost previous two). Freiburg also only had to get past a second tier side (Hamburg SV) in the semifinals while Leipzig vanquished Union Berlin. Freiburg hasn’t beaten Leipzig in any of the previous five meetings and Leipzig was as good as any Bundesliga side in 2022. 10* RB Leipzig |
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05-20-22 | Roma +110 v. Torino | Top | 3-0 | Win | 110 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
10* AS Roma (2:45 ET): Roma can clinch a spot in next season’s Europa League with a win today in their final Serie A match of the season. Sure, if things don’t work out, Jose Mourinho’s side will get a “second chance” at the 2022/23 Europa League if they defeat Feyenoord in next week’s Europa Conference League Final. But why risk it? They’d also like to head into next week’s Final with SOME momentum as Roma has actually not won in Serie A since April 10th, a streak of five consecutive matches. Last week was a very disappointing 1-1 draw with last place Venezia. I say Roma ends its Serie A campaign on a “high note.” Torino has had a solid season and done well when I’ve taken them, but they have nothing to play for here on this final matchday. The Bull should be quite satisfied with where they are currently at (10th in the table) considering the last two seasons brought 16th and 17th place finishes. Depending how this weekend’s results shake out, Torino could finish anywhere from 9th to 11th. A top 10 finish sounds nice for a side that’s only lost one time since April, but their opponents are going to come in as the more motivated of the two sides on Friday. I mentioned the disappointing draw for Roma last week. They missed TWO penalties. Venezia also was a man down (red card) from the 32nd minute on. The only goal Roma conceded came in the opening minute, which always feels like a “fluke.” Bottom line is it was a match Roma SHOULD have won. They absolutely dominated possession and shots on goal. Conceding early goals has actually been a problem in the L2 matches, but won’t be here as Roma blanked Torino 1-0 in the reverse back in November. Torino will be missing a number of players due to injury today. 10* AS Roma |
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05-19-22 | Burnley v. Aston Villa UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
9* Under Burnley/Aston Villa (3:00 ET): So this one is huge for Burnley as they try and escape the drop zone (bottom three) in the Premier League. All it would take is a draw to draw level with Leeds United at 35 points and Burnley would be way ahead on goal differential, thus avoiding relegation to the Championship. But with one more matchday to go after this (Sunday) where they will face a resurgent Newcastle United, a win would be quite nice for the Clarets. Problem is, even against what is probably going to be an unmotivated Aston Villa club, I can’t really trust them on the road. Burnley turned in a game effort last weekend against Tottenham Hotspur, a top four side trying to play its way into next season’s Champions League. But they came up short, 1-0, the lone goal being a Harry Kane penalty in first half stoppage time. It marked the fifth time in the last seven matches that the Clarets scored 1 or 0 goals and they haven’t scored more than two in any fixture since a 3-2 win over Everton back on April 6th. Prior to that win, the Clarets had been blanked in four consecutive matches. So you can see why they are in the position they are in. Only last place Norwich City has scored fewer times than Burnley this season in EPL action. Aston Villa no longer needs to worry about the threat of relegation, but they have suffered 18 defeats this campaign, which is two more than Burnley has and tied for fourth most in the entire English top flight. Villa is coming off a tough 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace (where I again had the Under) and both goals scored came in the final half hour. Villa gave up the equalizer in the 81st minute. It was less than two weeks ago they beat Burnley 3-1, but I can’t see Villa scoring three times again here and Burnley’s lone goal in that reverse came in stoppage time. 9* Under Burnley/Aston Villa |
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05-19-22 | Hamburger SV +0.5 v. Hertha Berlin | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
10* Hamburger SV Goal Line (2:30 ET): This is the relegation playoff in the Bundesliga. For those that are unfamiliar, here’s how it works. The team that finished with the third worst record in the top flight (in this case, Hertha Berlin) faces the third place finisher in the 2. Bundesliga (Hamburger SV). There are two legs (matches) played with each side hosting one. After both legs are complete, whomever is ahead on aggregate score will be in the top flight next season. Note that I’m playing the goal line here, feeling that the underdog (Hamburger) will do no worse than a draw. Typically, when you have a team from the top flight taking on a team from the second tier, you’d expect the former to have a significant edge. But I don’t think any such edge exists here. Hertha Berlin finished with the second worst goal differential in the Bundesliga this season, ahead of only last place Greuther Furth. Meanwhile, not only did Hamburger finish with the best GD down in the 2, they also made it all the way to the semifinals of DFB Pokal, the second most prestigious club title in all of Germany. So this side is battle-tested. They won their last five league games by an aggregate score of 16-5. After three straight years of finishing fourth down in the 2, Hamburger is ready to earn itself a promotion and will be all about this opportunity. Now when looking at the statistics, you must obviously factor in the level of competition. Only once in the last nine years has the team from the 2 won the Bundesliga Relegation Playoff. But Hamburger did defeat one top flight team (FC Koln) during their run in the DFB Pokal. Something else that must be considered is the way Hertha landed in this spot. It looked as if they would avoid the Relegation Playoff and claim safety, but Stuttgart getting a late goal (92nd minute) vs. Koln moved them ahead in the table. This is just a brutal spot for Hertha as up to nine first-teamers may miss this match, including the goaltender! Back the Red Shorts! 10* Hamburger SV (Goal Line) |
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05-15-22 | Osasuna v. Ath Bilbao -174 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 30 h 30 m | Show |
6* Athletic Bilbao (1:30 ET): It was a putrid effort last week from Athletic Club (Bilbao) as they dropped all three points to Granada, losing 1-0. Bilbao finished the match with just 10 men after Mikel Vesga was sent off with a red card in the 85th minute. That pretty much sealed their fate, already facing a one-goal disadvantage. Certainly, that was not the result the faithful were expecting as the club badly needed points to stay in the mix for the top seven in La Liga. Since beating Atletico Madrid 2-0, Bilbao has drawn Valencia and lost to Granada. I can’t see them going three in a row without picking up full points. With Villarreal winning midweek, Athletic Club now faces a four-point deficit to get into the top seven and qualify for next season’s Europa Conference League. If they fail to make up that gap, there will be no European football again next season. They already have more points than they finished with last season (46) when they finished 10th. So there has been improvement, but honestly they should be even higher in the table (as they are fifth in expected points). Something to consider is that Bilbao has conceded only one goal in its last three matches. They also beat Osasuna 3-1 in the reverse back in January. Osasuna is right behind Athletic Club, in ninth place, but they are out of the mix for European football next season and honestly they should feel fortunate to be this high in the table. I say that based on their goal difference (-10) which is actually bottom eight in the league as of this writing. Osasuna is coming off three consecutive 1-1 draws, against Elche, Espanyol and Getafe, all of whom are in the bottom half of the table. Athletic Club has the third most xPts in the league at home this season and they’ve only conceded 35 times, tied for fourth fewest. Look for the hosts to pick up all three points here. 6* Athletic Club |
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05-15-22 | Atalanta +0.75 v. AC Milan | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -111 | 28 h 1 m | Show |
10* Atalanta Goal Line (12:00 ET): There are implications for both sides in this matchup of traditional Serie A powers on Sunday. Obviously, AC Milan is looking to extend its lead (currently just two points) over Inter in the race for the Scudetto (league championship). Atalanta (currently) eighth is just trying to get in the mix for European football next season, something they have been a part of each of the last five seasons. I see the underdogs escaping with at least a point in this critical match. Just to be safe, play them on the goal line. Though they are tied with both Roma and Fiorentina for the sixth most points in Serie A (59), Atalanta has a negative head to head record vs. both of those European contenders, so right now they are on the outside looking in when it comes to continental football next season. With both Roma and Fiorentina taking on bottom of the table sides this weekend, picking up points here is a must for La Dea, who has the 5th best goal differential in the league right now (+20). I’m a little perplexed as to how they find themselves down in eighth place. They have 20 different goal scorers this season (most in Serie A) and have picked up the third most away points. I won with them last week as they easily beat Spezia by a final score of 3-1. Though in control for their first Scudetto in 11 years, AC Milan is actually just third in the league in both goal difference and xPts (expected points), so they should feel a little bit fortunate to be at the top of the table. They’ve won four straight Serie A matches, though one could argue they’ve been a little lucky to win all of the last three. They conceded the first goal of the match against both Lazio and Verona and against the former didn’t take the lead until stoppage time. Two weeks ago vs. Fiorentina, the lone goal of the match did not come until the 82nd minute. These are great odds on Atalanta here. 10* Atalanta (Goal Line) |
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05-15-22 | Crystal Palace v. Aston Villa UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 25 h 1 m | Show |
9* Under Crystal Palace/Aston Villa (9:00 AM ET): Out of contention for the European places, but safe from relegation, it’s going to be a mid-table finish for both Crystal Palace and Aston Villa this Premier League season. I’d argue Crystal Palace is due to possibly move up a few spots, into the Top 10, before the season is complete as the Eagles actually boast the 7th highest xPts (expected points) total in the league right now. They have never finished higher than 10th in the English top flight (currently 11th w/ 44 points), so that is something to keep them motivated these last three fixtures. Aston Villa is just one point back of CP entering matchday 36, but they do have an inferior GD and the gap is much wider on xPts. But like CP, Villa has shown decent form down the stretch. We played them +1.5 earlier in the week against Liverpool and thanks to an early goal (3rd minute!), they were able to cash in what ended up being a 2-1 loss to one of the two best Premier League sides. Giving up the equalizer so quickly (sixth minute) was not ideal, but the game-winner for Liverpool didn’t come until the 65th minute. Note that in their previous three matches, Villa had conceded a total of just one goal, that coming in stoppage time vs. Burnley (when Villa was already ahead 3-0). Similarly, Crystal Palace has been stingy of late. They’ve conceded just two goals in the last four matches and they won for us (1-0 over Watford) last week. That makes it three in a row w/o a loss for the Eagles. I am expecting a low-scoring encounter on Sunday, not as free-wheeling as you might expect between two mid-table sides at this stage of the campaign. Both are hungry for that top half finish, so we won’t be seeing many goals at Villa Park. Palace is actually third from the bottom in xG (expected goals) on their travels this season. Four of the last five meetings have seen one - or both - sides fail to hit the scoresheet. 9* Under Crystal Palace/Aston Villa |
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05-14-22 | VfL Bochum v. Union Berlin -1.25 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -56 | 20 h 7 m | Show |
10* Union Berlin Goal Line (9:30 AM ET): It’s all in front of Union on the final matchday of the Bundesliga season. A win here would guarantee the Iron Ones a spot in next year’s Europa League and possibly their highest finish ever in the German top flight. It has been a breakout campaign for this side in 2021/22. Union comes into Saturday sixth in the table, only one point behind Freiburg and three behind fourth place Leipzig. Because of goal differential, Union has no chance of overtaking Leipzig for the fourth Champions League spot, but they’ll want to leave nothing to chance here as 7th place Koln sits just two points back with a relatively similar GD. I think Union will show no mercy on their opponents, who have no reason to be motivated for this fixture. Union is unbeaten over its last six Bundesliga matches. Ironically, the only one they didn’t win was against Greuther Furth, who sits at the bottom of the table, ready to be relegated. After that disappointing 1-1 draw, the Iron Ones stormed back to destroy Freiburg 4-1 last week, a massive result for both sides. Now if Freiburg fails to win this week at Leverkusen, Union can jump them into fifth with a win. I’m confident here that the favorite can win this one by multiple goals. A big reason for that confidence, as alluded to earlier, is that Bochum has absolutely NOTHING on the line here in this final matchday. Promoted back into the top flight this season, Bochum’s only goal was survival and they achieved that rather easily in what will be a mid-table finish. Bochum is coming off B2B victories, a 4-3 shocker over Dortmund (won on a late penalty after the equalizer came four minutes earlier), then an undeserved 2-1 result last week over relegation threatened Arminia Bielefeld on an 89th minute “own goal.” Their hosts on Saturday, with much to play for, will show no mercy and win by multiple goals. 10* Union Berlin (Goal Line) |
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05-11-22 | Chelsea -155 v. Leeds United | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 19 h 52 m | Show |
7* Chelsea (2:30 ET): I’m a little shocked at two things here. (1) that Chelsea STILL hasn’t clinched a Champions League spot for next season and (2) that they are available at such a cheap price here (needing only a win) over relegation-threatened Leeds United. Chelsea still sits third in the table, a finish that has been considered a formality for a while now, but their lead over fourth place Arsenal is down to a single point, thanks to their winless run reaching three matches after LW’s 2-2 draw with Wolverhampton. And fifth place Tottenham is only five points behind. Chelsea very much look poised to take all three points from the Wolves last week. They jumped out to a two-goal lead right after halftime, scoring twice in three minutes (including a penalty). But after conceding in the 79th minute, the Blues gave up the late equalizer (in the 7th minute of stoppage time) and had to share the points. I know the FA Cup Final (vs. Liverpool) looms this weekend, but with new ownership and their grip on a Champions League place that was once considered a lock, I see Thomas Tuchel’s side rising up Wednesday and getting all three points. Chelsea hasn’t been as stingy as they were last season, but they’ve still conceded the third fewest number of goals in the league this season. Meanwhile, Wednesday’s opposition has conceded the second most goals (74), more than double what Chelsea has allowed. Leeds also has the third worst GD (-35) in the league, so their current place is very much deserved. Both Everton and Burnley have passed them, leaving the Whites in the relegation zone (with three tough matches left to play) and Everton has a match in hand. Leeds is now the favorite to join Watford and Norwich City as the three teams heading back to the Championship next season. They’ve conceded at least a goal in each of their L10 home matches. 7* Chelsea |
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05-10-22 | Liverpool v. Aston Villa +1.25 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 50 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
7* Aston Villa Goal Line (3:00 ET): First off, please note I’m taking Aston Villa on the goal line. So a win by them, a draw or 1-goal loss would all equal a winning ticket! Liverpool’s chances of winning the Premier League title took a serious hit last week when they ended up sharing the points with Tottenham (1-1 draw) and Man City thrashed Newcastle 5-0. Those results leave the Reds three points back in the chase for the EPL title. So a win here would bring them level, although Man City still has a match in hand. Keep in mind though that this is a busy time for Liverpool as they seek to become the first English side EVER to win a “quadruple” (EPL, Carabao Cup, FA Cup, Champions League). They’ve already bagged the Carabao Cup, but sweeping the other three pieces of hardware now looks exceedingly tough. Man City no longer is involved in the Champions League, so their full attention is on the EPL. Liverpool’s opponent in the UCL Final, Real Madrid, has the La Liga title all wrapped up and thus can turn its full attention to being champions of Europe. On top of that, Liverpool must face Chelsea this weekend in the FA Cup final. All things considered, I just can’t see the Reds winning today (on the road) by more than one goal. Aston Villa enters Tuesday’s fixture on a three-match unbeaten streak, including B2B wins over Norwich City and Burnley. Those are obviously bottom of the table sides, but let us not forget what happened the last time the Lions hosted Liverpool in league play. It was a 7-2 thrashing by them! Now Liverpool has since avenged that defeat with three wins over Villa, but it’s fair to question the motivation and tactics of Jurgen Klopp’s side today. Aston Villa still has hopes of a top half finish this season and like I said earlier, they’ll keep this one within a goal (at worst). 7* Aston Villa (Goal Line) |
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05-08-22 | Atalanta -215 v. Spezia Calcio | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
6* Atalanta (6:30 AM ET): The four Champions League spots in Serie A have already been clinched (Inter, AC Milan, Napoli, Juventus) for next season, but with two of those sides (Inter & Juventus) set to meet in Wednesday’s Coppa Italia Final, that means the league’s Europa League berth will be passed down to the sixth place team and seventh will head to the Europa Conference League. The added European place is a massive relief to Atalanta, who is currently languishing in eighth, behind Fiorentina based on head to head points. One would have to go back to 2016/17 to find the last season La Dea was not involved in some sort of European football. Atalanta has certainly floundered down the stretch, winning only one of its last eight matches and that lone victory came at the hands of last place and relegation-bound Venezia. But this is a favorable fixture on Sunday against Spezia, who seems assured of safety (from relegation) and that was the main goal for them this season. Atalanta has done well on their travels this season, earning the third most away points in the league. Only AC Milan and Napoli have more. Monday’s 1-1 draw with Salernitana was incredibly disappointing, but still only three points separate Atalanta from fifth place (as of this writing), so a win would be huge here, especially with Roma playing Fiorentina Monday, as it would guarantee La Dea picks up points on one of the three sides they are chasing. Spezia is a deserved bottom five side in Serie A this season as they are tied for the second most losses (20). They have picked up only three points at home against teams in the top half of the table and last week brought a brutal 4-3 loss to Lazio as three times Spezia squandered a one-goal lead, then they gave up the game-winner in the 90th minute. That will be difficult to get over and I just can’t see the favorites not picking up all three points on Sunday. 6* Atalanta |
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05-07-22 | Watford v. Crystal Palace -150 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 57 m | Show |
8* Crystal Palace (10:00 AM ET): We’ve hit the final month of the Premier League season. Justifiably so, most of the attention right now is being paid to the race for the top spot (Man City vs. Liverpool), top four (Arsenal vs. Tottenham) and relegation (Leeds/Burnley/Everton). But staring at the table, one thing that sticks out to me is Crystal Palace should be higher. They have +3 YTD goal differential this season, better than any of the four sides directly above them and if you’re looking for more advanced metrics, the Eagles are 8th in the league in xPts. A top 10 finish is still possible and something they’ll be hungry for. Watford is almost certain to be relegated at this point as they would need to win out to have any chance at avoiding being condemned. That’s just not going to happen as their inevitable fate was all but confirmed by last week’s brutal 2-1 result against Burnley. After opening the scoring in the eighth minute, the Hornets still led 1-0 in the 83rd minute, which is when disaster struck. They proceeded to concede twice over the next four minutes and lose a critical home match, the result sending Burnley 12 points up. Even worse for Watford is that Everton also upset Chelsea last weekend. Five straight losses give Watford a league-high 24 this season, which is one more than Norwich City (who has already clinched relegation). It’s just been a brutal season for the Hornets, one “worthy” of relegation as they’ve scored just 32 goals (third fewest) and conceded 69 (second most in club history). Their only goal scored vs. Burnley was an “own goal.” Take OG’s away and the Hornets have just eight players who have scored a goal this season, fewest in the entire EPL. The reverse saw CP win 4-1 back in February and it should be more of the same here at Selhurst Park as the Eagles look to complete the league double. 8* Crystal Palace |
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05-07-22 | Southampton v. Brentford +120 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 120 | 24 h 57 m | Show |
10* Brentford (10:00 AM ET): Aside from a 3-0 loss to Manchester United on Monday, Brentford has been in excellent form down the “home stretch” this Premier League season. It won’t get the Bees into European contention or anything, but this has been a successful return to the English top flight after just being promoted for 2021/22. In fact, Brentford ought to be a lot higher than 14th in the table right now; they are 7th in xPts (expected points). They can still move into the Top 10 with a win here and I like their chances at getting the full three points at Southampton’s expense on Saturday. Southampton is level with Brentford at 40 points, but the Saints have a worse goal differential and xPts tells a very different story about the two sides. Whereas Brentford should probably be higher in the table, Southampton seems very deserving of its current place and the recent form of the two sides couldn’t be more different. Brentford has won five of seven and was unbeaten in four straight before the loss to Man U earlier in the week. Meanwhile, Southampton has won just one of its last 10 matches, losing seven times. With nothing really left to play for, it will be difficult for the Saints to get over what happened last week when they blew a 1-0 lead to Crystal Palace and gave up the game winner in stoppage time to lose 2-1. Being at home is obviously also an advantage for Brentford as they have not conceded a goal here since February. They are looking to join the likes of Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal as the only sides to keep four consecutive clean sheets at home this Premier League season. Southampton has picked up just three out of a possible 15 points on the road going back to February 9th. They’ve also conceded two goals in each of their last three matches. With Brentford having lost the reverse 4-1 back in January, they’ll be out for revenge here. Look for a win by the home side. 10* Brentford |
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05-05-22 | West Ham United v. Eintracht Frankfurt | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
10* West Ham +0.0 (3:00 ET): Neither of these two sides has any chance at gaining entry into next season’s Champions League through their respective leagues. West Ham currently sits seventh in the Premier League table, 11 points adrift of Arsenal, who just beat the Hammers 2-1 on Sunday (a win on the end as well!) Eintracht Frankfurt sits 11th in the Bundesliga and it’s a mathematical impossibility for them to finish top four. So winning the Europa League (which sends you to the UCL next season) now has an added importance for both clubs. Eintracht Frankfurt won the first leg, 2-1 in London, giving them a surprising one-goal edge going into the second leg. What’s a little fascinating about Frankfurt’s run to the Europa League semis, which has seen them oust Real Betis and Barcelona in the knockout stages, is that they haven’t won a single Bundesliga match going back to March 13th! They were just shut out 2-0 by Leverkusen on Monday and I don’t think the short turnaround does them any favors for this second leg. Monday marked the fourth time since March 20th that Frankfurt was held goalless on the domestic front. They’ve also gone six straight matches without picking up a win here at home. So West Ham absolutely has a chance to erase this one goal deficit on Thursday. I’m taking them here on the “draw no bet line” just to be safe, but I expect them to win here. To be clear, all we need for this bet to cash is the Hammers to be winning the match at the end of 90 minutes + stoppage time. If they are up by only a goal, there will be added time to decide who moves onto the Final, but that will be no concern of ours. The Hammers are pretty clearly the better side in this fixture. Given the season they have had in the Bundesliga, it would be quite the shock if Frankfurt was playing any European football next season. 10* West Ham (Draw No Bet) |
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05-05-22 | Leicester v. Roma +115 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 115 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
10* AS Roma (3:00 ET): Considering what’s on the line in the Europa Conference League (a spot in next year’s Europa League), you might think Leicester City is the far more motivated side here, seeing as the Foxes have zero chances of qualifying for any European football next season through the Premier League while there’s a good chance Roma ends up finishing fifth in Serie A and qualifies for the Europa League regardless. But you also can’t dismiss the fact that Roma is simply the better side in this fixture, which is at home where they are typically much stronger. I’m betting on them to win and advance on Thursday. The clubs enter this second leg of the semifinals tied 1-1 after playing to a draw last week in Leicester. That match saw Roma strike first with a Lorenzo Pellegrini goal in the 15th minute. Unfortunately though, the Italian side would not score again and the dreaded “own goal” (in the 67th minute) equalized and the clubs ended the first leg level. Still, considering they were away, that’s not a bad result for Roma. All the need to do now is win and they’re on to the Final to face the winner of Marseille-Feyenoord and they’d be favored over either of those two. Picking up some hardware would be a nice consolation for Roma as their chances of finishing top four in Serie A this season have pretty much gone out the window. They’d desperately like to win here, something they have not done since blasting Bodo/Glimt in the second leg of the Conference League quarters. Three draws and a loss to Inter have followed. Ending that winless run at home would be rather satisfying. Leicester City is currently 11th in the Premier League table, but honestly is lucky as they have the fourth fewest xPts (expected points) this season. They are winless over their last five matches. I’ll call for the home side to win here inside of 90 mins + stoppage time. 10* AS Roma |
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05-02-22 | Brentford v. Manchester United OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
8* Over Brentford/Manchester United (3:00 ET): I don’t think there’s any denying that Brentford is in much better form right now compared to their counterparts in Old Trafford. The Bees have picked up points in six of the last seven fixtures, winning five of them. They played to a goalless draw with Tottenham last week, but don’t let this side’s current position in the table (14th) fool you. Brentford is actually sixth in the league in expected points (xPts), ahead of Manchester United! It seems reasonable to expect the Bees to continue their unbeaten streak in Monday’s fixture, but I’m instead looking at the Over here. Manchester United has not won since it was announced Erik ten Hag would replace interim boss Ralph Rangnick this summer. The Red Devils lost 3-1 to Arsenal last weekend and followed that with a 1-1 draw against Chelsea midweek, thanks to the heroics of Cristiano Ronaldo. But United now faces the prospect of missing Europe altogether next season after failing to win six of their last seven fixtures. The lone win came against last place Norwich City. They currently sit sixth in the table. They’ll probably end up in the Europa or Europa Conference League, but that is far from settled now. This is Man U’s final home game, so I can’t see them rolling over. They beat Brentford 3-1 in the reverse fixture, although the Bees finished ahead on expected goals. I know the 0-0 draw with Tottenham may not inspire a lot of confidence in Brentford’s scoring ability, but they have been at 1.32 xG or better in seven straight matches. Plus Man U’s defense has gotten pretty bad down the stretch.and they are now in the bottom half of the league in goals allowed. But the one shining light for United is they have scored eight goals in their last four home matches. Look for this one to sneak Over. 8* Over Brentford/Manchester United |
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05-01-22 | Arsenal -130 v. West Ham United | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
9* Arsenal (11:30 AM ET): This one is all about the two sides’ respective motivations at the current time. Arsenal is all about finishing fourth in the Premier League. They are currently where they want to be, but only two points ahead of Tottenham, who seemingly have a favorable fixture on Sunday (vs Leicester City). By the time this match gets underway, there’s a decent shot the Gunners have fallen back into fifth. The huge showdown against the Spurs goes down in two weeks, but beating West Ham here is imperative. Arsenal is in better form than Sunday’s opponents and I like their chances of getting the full three points. West Ham, currently seventh in the table, is probably resigned to a Europa League or Europa Conference League spot next season. That is if they don’t win this year’s Europa League, where they are currently in the semifinals. But losing the first leg to Eintracht Frankfurt, at home on Thursday, was massively disappointing. Not only is West Ham’s primary focus going to be on this Thursday’s second leg, but having this fixture fall in between the two legs is not great from a situational perspective. The Hammers’ recent form, beyond what happened Thursday, hasn’t been the greatest either. They are winless in the L3 Premier League fixtures, including a 1-0 loss to Chelsea last week. The bottom line is that Arsenal cares far more about winning this one than does West Ham, whose focus will be on Thursday. The Hammers’ starting XI may look different than normal as a result. This is a side that’s been shutout twice during the three-match winless run here in the EPL and the only point earned came against Burnley. Meanwhile, off the B2B wins over Chelsea and Manchester United (where they scored a total of seven goals), Arsenal is simply in better form right now than West Ham. The Gunners have had a positive xG difference in four straight matches while the Hammers have done the same in just two of their last five. 9* Arsenal |
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04-30-22 | FC Koln v. FC Augsburg | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
9* FC Koln (9:30 AM ET): Augsburg is somewhat fortunate to be safe from relegation from the moment, considering they are third from the bottom in expected points (xPts) and have an expected goal differential of -22.34 (actual GD is -11). Last week’s 2-0 win over Bochum moved Augsburg seven points clear of the relegation playoff, so they’re in good shape with just three fixtures left in the Bundesliga season and one of them against last place Greuther Furth. But their current position also sets them up for a nice fade this week as they face FC Koln, who is still in contention for the Europa Conference League entering matchweek 32. Quite frankly, Koln may have even bigger European dreams than the Europa Conference league right now. They are still only five points back of the top four in the Bundesliga and a win here *could* move them into fifth in the table, although that depends on FC Union Berlin’s result Friday (not complete as of this writing) and what Freiburg does (vs. Hoffenheim) later on Saturday. But there’s no sense relying on those sides not to pick up points if you’re Koln. Playing any kind of European football next season would be a bit of a dream come true for Koln, considering they were in the relegation playoff at the end of last season. Koln won last week, 3-1 over Arminia Bielefeld, which was their third straight win. They’ve scored three times in all three wins and now face an Augsburg side which has the second highest xGA (expected goals allowed) in the league this season. (Only Bielefeld is worse). There’s definitely some defensive regression in store for Augsburg down the stretch as they’ve conceded 11 goals fewer than expected this season, the third highest “overachievement” in all of Europe’s “Big 4” leagues. This is a great spot to fade Augsburg. 9* FC Koln (Goal Line - Draw No Bet) |
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04-30-22 | Verona v. Cagliari | Top | 2-1 | Win | 107 | 23 h 59 m | Show |
10* Hellas Verona (9:00 AM ET): There were some favorable midweek results for Verona with Fiorentina losing 4-0 to Udinese and Atalanta drawing Torino. That means Verona’s faint hopes of playing European football next season are still alive, though in eighth place and six points back of Atalanta, it will require one heck of a finish to get there. This week’s fixture vs. struggling Cagliari is basically a must win for the visitors, who could use the three points regardless, just to ensure a top half finish in Serie A. Considering Cagliari’s poor form as of late, I expect Verona to get the win here and think they are a great value on the goal line (where a draw = no bet). Cagliari is fighting for its life right now as they are only three points ahead of suddenly surging Salernitana and Genoa in the race to avoid relegation. The remaining fixtures seem favorable as Rossoblu will face two of the sides (Salernitana, Venezia) currently in the relegation zone. But this looks to be a bad matchup as Verona is a good pressing team, something Cagliari struggles with mightily and the Rossoblu are also in line for some defensive regression as they are third from the bottom in Serie A in xGA (expected goals allowed). Verona’s matches have been much more high scoring compared to last season, which was inevitable. That said, they’ve notched more than one goal just one time in their last seven. This is where they should find the back of the net a few times, however, for the reasons mentioned above. After recording an impressive 2-1 victory over Atalanta two weeks ago, Verona had to settle for a 1-1 draw with Sampdoria last week. But most metrics (possession, shots, xG) say they should have won that fixture. With just one win in their last seven, the metrics aren’t saying many positive things about Cagliari right now and I expect them to lose Saturday. 10* Hellas Verona (Goal Line - Draw No Bet) |
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04-27-22 | Villarreal +1.5 v. Liverpool | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
10* Villarreal +1.5 (3:00 ET): Liverpool is obviously playing as well as any side in the entire world right now as they’ve won 12 straight here in Anfield and 14 of 15 overall. But it was a bit of a struggle Sunday against relegation-threatened Everton, despite the match ending up as a 2-0 final. The Reds were tied 0-0 until the 62 minute and now face their fourth fixture in the last 11 days and it’s a big one against Villarreal, the “surprise” semi finalist of the Champions League. The Yellow Submarine are fresh off a shocking upset of Bayern Munich in the quarterfinals and must be taken seriously in this tie. I’ll go with them on the goal line in the first leg, thinking they can easily keep this one within a one-goal margin. Villarreal may only currently be seventh in La Liga, but don’t let that fool you. They have the third best YTD goal differential in the Spanish top flight and won last year’s Europa League. Unlike the other three semifinalists though, there is no clear path back into next season’s Champions League for the Yellow Submarine. They won’t make the top four in La Liga, so all their focus is on this fixture whereas Liverpool must also stay concerned with its ongoing battle for the top spot in the Premier League, not to mention the FA Cup Final against Chelsea in a couple weeks. Already in the knockout stage, Villarreal has toppled two heavyweights, Juventus and Bayern. This is their biggest mountain to climb, but they should be up for the challenge. Only once since the start of December have the Yellow Submarine been beaten by more than one goal. Liverpool did concede four times in the quarterfinals to Benefica, a much lesser side. While Gerard Moreno is out for Villarreal, the schedule sets up quite nicely for them here as they were off last weekend and haven’t been on the pitch in over a week. They’re also unbeaten in five straight competitions, having scored in all of them. 10* Villarreal Goal Line (+1.5) |
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04-26-22 | Real Madrid v. Manchester City OVER 2.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
analysis 8* Over Real Madrid/Manchester City (3:00 ET): In the first semifinal of this year’s Champions League, we’ve got the team that will win La Liga (Real Madrid) against the current leaders of the Premier League (Manchester City). It should be a good one. In the quarterfinals, Man City ousted last year’s La Liga Champions (Atletico Madrid), needing just a single goal to do so. It will certainly take more than that to defeat this year’s top team from the Spanish flight as Real Madrid comes in having delivered thrilling come from behind victories over PSG and Chelsea here in the knockout stage. Man City is undefeated here at the Etihad in Champions League play, going all the way back to September of 2018. So the EPL leaders will be confident heading into this first leg. However, they were not all that impressive against Atletico and had to survive a second half onslaught in the second leg just to advance. The good news is that the Citizens have scored 13 goals in their five home matches so far in this tournament. I’m expecting a lot more offense from them than what we saw in the quarterfinals. In three fixtures since, they’ve found the back of the net a total of 10 times, including a 5-1 win over Watford this past weekend. Real Madrid had to come from behind in the second leg vs. PSG to advance out of the Round of 16, then survived an early Chelsea barrage in the second leg of the quarterfinals. Los Blancos were down on aggregate in both ties and honestly are probably lucky to be here. However, with the exception of the 4-0 thumping they took from Barcelona, Real has scored multiple goals in every match since the start of March. They put three on the board last Wednesday vs. Osasuna and should have had more, but missed a pair of penalties. Man City’s backline is dealing with multiple absences heading into this one and Real’s Karim Benzema has seven goals in the last four UCL matches. 8* Over Real Madrid/Manchester City |
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04-25-22 | Leeds United v. Crystal Palace OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
10* Over Leeds United/Crystal Palace (3:00 ET): Crystal Palace has been held without a goal in each of its last two fixtures, one of those in the FA Cup (2-0 semifinal loss to Chelsea) and then a 1-0 loss to Newcastle here in the Premier League last week. The Eagles ought to be a lot higher in the EPL table; at least based on their YTD goal differential being better than the five teams directly ahead of them and the fact they are ninth in xPts (expected points). While I’m not confident enough in CP to bet them to win today, I do certainly anticipate they’ll break their scoreless streak in this fixture. Leeds United is still fighting to fend off relegation, though another win and you’ve got to think they’re probably safe for next season. Unlike Crystal Palace (+2 GD), Leeds has not been particularly impressive in several underlying metrics (they have the EPL’s third worst GD), so I can’t say that they’re unfortunate to be in the position they are currently in. Fighting for survival has brought improved form, however. The Whites are unbeaten in their last four competitions and just put three goals on the board last week in a clean sheet victory over hapless Watford. They’ve scored nine goals in the four-match unbeaten run, scoring 2+ in three of the fixtures. Crystal Palace is definitely a stronger side here at Selhurst Park where they haven’t conceded a single goal in the L3 matches. They’ve also scored 25 goals in their 16 matches here this season. The Eagles are the strongest attacking team that Leeds will have faced in some time. Expect goals here as Leeds’ so- called “defensive improvement” has a lot to do with whom they’ve faced recently, namely four of the other bottom seven sides, including the bottom two. 10* Over Leeds United/Crystal Palace |
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04-24-22 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v. Burnley OVER 2 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -119 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
10* Over Wolves/Burnley (9:00 AM ET): In all of Europe’s “Big 4” leagues, there isn’t a side that has been more fortunate when it comes to conceding goals this season than Wolverhampton. The Wolves have conceded only 28 times, fourth fewest in the Premier League. However, their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 44.36, which would rank 10th. To put that kind of overachieving in its proper perspective, there are only two other sides in the “Big 4” to have a positive difference of more than nine between their xGA and actual goals allowed. (Those would be Augsburg and Arminia Bielefeld of the Bundesliga). The Wolves are still chasing down a spot in the Europa Conference League. They are three points behind West Ham, but have a match in hand as a result of last week’s fixture vs. Man City getting postponed (because Man City was competing in the FA Cup). A 1-0 loss to Newcastle did the Wolves no favors two weeks ago. But before that, they’d found the back of the net twice against both Aston Villa and Leeds United. Though Burnley isn’t even close to having the worst defensive record in the EPL, you’ve got to like Wolverhampton’s chances of getting on the scoresheet in this one as Burnley had conceded a goal in eight straight matches prior to last week’s 2-0 clean sheet over Southampton. That win inched Burnley closer to safety as they desperately try to escape the relegation zone. They’ll enter Sunday 18th in the table, one point behind Everton, who must face Liverpool today. So an opportunity is there for the Clarets to move up. Given what I said earlier about Wolverhampton, I expect Burnley will get on the scoresheet here. Feeling that both sides will score in this fixture makes the Over an obvious call. 10* Over Wolves/Burnley |
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04-23-22 | Spezia Calcio v. Torino +123 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 123 | 20 h 42 m | Show |
10* Torino (9:00 AM ET): Torino has won only once in their last 11 matches, but they were very close to pulling the upset last week in what ended up a 1-1 draw with Lazio. The Granata conceded the equalizer late, two minutes into stoppage time in fact, costing them two critical points as they look to finish in the top half of the table. That result still worked for me as I bet Torino on the goal line (+1). That result came on the heels of another draw against one of the top sides in Serie A, the top team in fact, 0-0 vs. AC Milan. I know it’s been a difficult stretch for this mid-table side, but they are due to collect all three points this week. Spezia was promoted to the top flight before last season and is all but assured of a third consecutive season in Serie A as they are 11 points clear of the drop zone, even after last week’s 3-1 loss to Inter Milan. But this side still has the fourth worst goal differential in the league (-24) and really struggles on the road where they have lost 10 of 17 while averaging fewer than one goal per match. Defensively, Spezia has its flaws as well. They are last in shots allowed and concede 1.74 xG (expected goals) per match. Torino is underrated as they are ninth in the league in xPts (expected points) and eighth in xGD (expected goal difference). While six points behind Sassuolo and eight behind Hellas Verona, almost all metrics suggest Torino is on par with the two sides they are chasing for a top half finish. Spezia did win the reverse fixture back in November, 1-0, but Torino had the edge in possession and shots on target. Their ability to press should treat them well on Saturday. 10* Torino |
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04-20-22 | Brighton & Hove Albion v. Manchester City UNDER 3 | Top | 0-3 | Push | 0 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
8* Under Brighton & Hove Albion/Manchester City (3:00 ET): Well, for the first time in a LONG time, Man City is NOT atop the Premier League table. Liverpool’s 4-0 thrashing of Manchester United put the Reds (I had ‘em) in first place by a single point. But now the Citizens have their opportunity to regain first place as they welcome Brighton & Hove Albion to Etihad Stadium on Wednesday. They are desperate to end a three-match winless streak across all competitions, but keep in mind that Brighton has been a “tough out” all season and comes in having beaten both Arsenal and Tottenham (two top five teams) the L2 weeks. The schedule seems to be taking its toll on Pep Guardiola’s side as he reported that Man City staff had to treat 71 injuries in the last week! Over the L10 days, the Citizens have had to face Liverpool twice, drawing them in league play (2-2) and then losing 3-2 in the FA Cup semifinals. In between, they played to a goalless draw against Atletico Madrid, which allowed them to advance to the Champions League semis. All is not lost though as a Premier League/Champions League double would be quite the accomplishment. Facing a Brighton club that has scored a total of just three goals in its last five matches should make things easier on the back end. It’s been four years since Brighton won three straight on the bounce in Premier League action and their win streak is likely to end here. They’ve lost eight of their last nine fixtures with Man City, including 4-1 in the reverse earlier this season. But I look for the rematch to be a low-scoring, cagey affair as Man City can still claim to have conceded the fewest number of goals (20) this Premier League season while Brighton has only found the back of the net 29 times, third fewest, ahead of only Burnley and Norwich City. 8* Under Brighton & Hove Albion/Manchester City |
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04-20-22 | Arsenal v. Chelsea -115 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 20 m | Show |
10* Chelsea (2:45 ET): While I understand that Chelsea has third place all but wrapped up and is coming off the emotional ‘high’ of booking a spot in the FA Cup Final, this is an awfully low price on the Blues at Stamford Bridge. Following rather shocking B2B defeats here - with a VERY uncharacteristic seven goals conceded - Chelsea has turned it around with three consecutive victories, the latest coming Sunday in 2-0 fashion over an underrated Crystal Palace side in the FA Cup semis. Of course, the last time we saw Thomas Tuchel’s side in league play, they thrashed Southampton by a score of 6-0. Arsenal still has designs on finishing in the top four, but the Gunners’ recent form has been poor as they’ve dropped three straight Premier League matches. The latest was a 1-0 defeat to Southampton, the same side Chelsea recently put the sword to. During the three-match losing streak, Arsenal has managed just one goal. With Chelsea having conceded only 23 goals in EPL play this season, this is probably not the fixture for the Gunners to turn their offensive form around. Sure enough, it was a 2-0 win for the Blues in the reverse, all the way back in August, especially with Kieran Tierney and Thomas Partey both likely absent for this one. It is difficult for me to envision Chelsea going three in a row at Stamford Bridge without a victory. The losses to Brentford and Real Madrid here were a little head-scratching, but before that the Blues had won six consecutive home matches and they have an xGD (expected goal differential) of +12.2 here for the season. Only four sides have a better home xGD, ironically Arsenal being one of them. But of course that indicates the Gunners’ away form has been lousy and sure enough they have won less than half their matches on their travels this season. Look for Chelsea to pick up all three points Wednesday. 10* Chelsea |
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04-19-22 | Manchester United v. Liverpool -1.25 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 37 m | Show |
8* Liverpool -1.5 (3:00 ET): Liverpool fans are now dreaming of an elusive “quadruple” as the club has already bagged the Carabao Cup this season and finds itself in position to pick up three more pieces of hardware over the next month. Over the last week, the Reds booked their place in the Champions League semifinals and the FA Cup Final, the latter coming by way of 3-2 win over Manchester City. In the Premier League, Liverpool still trails Man City (they played to a 2-2 draw in league action two weeks ago), but only by a single point. So a win today would move the Reds to the top of the table, albeit maybe just for the time being (Man City faces Brighton tomorrow). Now, looking at the odds, a Liverpool win doesn’t seem to be in question for today. They have not lost a single Premier League match here at Anfield this season (12-3-0), turning in a phenomenal +32 goal differential in the process. They’ve won 10 straight here and come into today’s fixture having scored 2+ goals in each of their last five competitions. So considering the available options, I’m going with the goal line here as this should be a multi-goal victory for the home side. When they faced Man U at Old Trafford earlier this season, it was a 5-0 demolition. That’s part of a disturbing trend for United, who has not fared well against the top EPL sides this season. Against the top three this season, they’ve been outscored 12-2 and the xG (expected goal) difference isn’t far off. The highest amount of possession Man U held in any of those three losses was 37% (in the 5-0 loss to Liverpool, ironically). United comes in fifth in the table, three points behind Tottenham, but considering they could barely beat last place Norwich City last week (needed a Cristiano Ronaldo hat trick), it’s difficult to like their chances here. Before LW, they’d scored only one goal across three fixtures. 8* Liverpool -1.5 (Goal Line) |
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04-19-22 | Alavés v. Mallorca +115 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 115 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
10* Mallorca (1:00 ET): This is a critical six-pointer at the bottom of the La Liga table with both sides facing the prospect of relegation down to the Segunda Division. Cadiz’s surprise 1-0 over Barcelona didn’t do any favors for Mallorca and Alaves, who currently both sit in the relegation zone. Mallorca is 18th, tied with Granada on points, but behind on goal differential. So a single point here would get them into safety (for the time being). However, a win would move them ahead of both Granada and Cadiz and into a tie for 15th. That’s what I see happening today as the last time they were at home, they defeated Atletico Madrid. Alaves, even after a surprise 1-0 win last week, still sits at the bottom of the table with 25 points. They are tied with Levante (behind on GD), but four points clear of safety. Alaves has the worst GD in all of La Liga. Their 1-0 win over 1-0 Rayo Vallecano last week snapped a seven-match winless run in the league, but I can’t say it was deserved as El Glorioso lost the xG (expected goal) battle. Though they’ve remained in the Spanish top flight since 2016, I can’t say it would be a shock to see Alaves end up relegated. They lost the reverse, 1-0, to Mallorca earlier this season. Mallorca is trying to make it B2B seasons in La Liga for the first time since 2013. Almost all of their 29 points this season have been accrued at home (21 to be exact) and getting this one here is big, not just for that reason, but also because Alaves has the worst away record in the league this season. Fading the last place side on the road at this price seems to be a real bargain and I felt Mallorca’s 3-0 loss to Elche LW was misleading as the xG battle was relatively even and they had more shots on goal. Alaves, who has scored one goal or less in five of its last six fixtures, was outshot and lost the possession battle badly against Rayo Vallecano. 10* Mallorca |
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04-17-22 | Leicester +0.5 v. Newcastle United | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -138 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
8* Leicester City (9:15 AM ET): Taking Leicester City on the goal line here, so all we would need is a draw to cash a winning ticket. That doesn’t seem like a “big ask” considering the side they are facing, Newcastle United, has spent the bulk of the year near the bottom of the table. Though the Magpies have recently seen an uptick in performance, and thus are likely to avoid relegation, they are still sitting in 15th place. Only three sides in the league (as of Saturday) are worse off in terms of goal differential and only two are lower in xPts (expected points). I really like only needing a draw in this fixture. Though the 2021/22 season has seen Leicester slip a bit, down to ninth in the table (they finished fifth last season), the Foxes have improved their own form recently by going unbeaten in their last five across all competitions. Most recently they progressed to the semis of the Europa Conference League, defeating PSV Eindhoven 2-1 on their own turf. That was midweek (Thursday), so the Foxes are at a bit of a disadvantage schedule-wise, but I still think they’re being undervalued in this spot. Last time in the league, Leicester defeated Crystal Palace (who is in the semis of the FA Cup) 2-1. Leicester is also the last team to defeat suddenly surging Brentford and they drew Manchester United earlier this month as well. The return of Johnny Evans to the starting XI has helped defensively. As for Newcastle, they’ve been overachieving since the transfer window closed, both on GD and xPts. It was a 4-0 thrashing at King Power (in favor of Leicester) when these teams met in the reverse back in December. Leicester is still gunning for a top half finish. That and the Europa Conference League will keep their motivation high down the stretch. Newcastle’s goal of avoiding relegation has been achieved and they’ve failed to score more than one goal in any of the L4 matches. 8* Leicester City |
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04-16-22 | Torino +1 v. Lazio | Top | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 28 h 27 m | Show |
10* Torino +1 (2:45 ET): Playing Torino on the goal line this week as they have turned it around the last two weeks, not conceding a single goal. Last time I took them was a 1-0 win over last place Salernitana, which may not sound all that impressive, but sharing the points with Serie A leaders AC Milan last week in a goalless draw certainly was. Over its last five matches, Torino has now conceded only two goals and they’ve shared the points not just with this year’s league leaders but also the reigning Scudetto holders. I’m willing to bet that they can at least share the points with Lazio on Saturday. No team in all of Europe’s “Big 4” leagues has overperformed its xG (expected goal) total more than Lazio. They have scored 64 times in Serie A matches this season, second most to Inter, but have an xG total of just 47.76. To put that discrepancy into its proper perspective, only Verona has exceeded its xG total by more than seven. The overperformance continued last week with four goals against 19th place Genoa when the xG total was just 2.16. Eventually, Lazio is going to have a match where it underperforms offensively. I think this is the fixture where that happens. Now Lazio certainly has much to play for here as they are sixth in the table and seven points back of the top four. But a Torino side that has a top five defensive mark in the league is a bad matchup and these clubs shared the points in a 1-1 draw back in September. It even took a late penalty, in stoppage time, for Lazio to earn the draw. I just can’t see the favorite winning by two goals here, so the goal line is the way to go in this one. 10* Torino |
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04-16-22 | Rayo Vallecano v. Alavés | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -102 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
10* Rayo Vallecano (10:15 AM ET): Rayo has managed to share the points in three of its last four matches, including Monday’s 1-1 draw with Valencia. But they have actually not won in the league since December and that 12 match winless run (eight losses, four draws) has left them only six points clear of safety heading into this weekend. But Rayo seems to have the perfect opponent to snap their winless streak, that being an Alaves side that is not only last in the La Liga table, but also the last time Rayo defeated. Take the away team on the “draw no bet” line, even though I expect them to get the full three points here. Rayo has been fairly unlucky down the stretch, especially two weeks ago when it had to settle for a 2-2 draw with Granada after jumping out to an early 2-0 lead. That match swung on a red card in the 51st minute and Granada got the equalizer in stoppage time on a controversial penalty. Last week against Valencia, it was Rayo that got the late equalizer, but they also won the possession battle and had more shots than Valencia. During the winless streak, Rayo has 12.84 xPts so they are incredibly unlucky to have taken only four. As for Alaves, there’s really nothing unlucky about their current last place standing. El Glorioso now has the worst goal differential in the league (-29) and most losses (19). They’ve lost four in a row and are winless over the last seven fixtures. No La Liga side has scored fewer goals this season than Alaves’ 24 and they’ve been outscored 9-3 over the four-game losing streak. Rayo dominated the first meeting, winning 2-0, and should do the same again here. 10* Rayo Vallecano (Draw No Bet Line) |
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04-16-22 | Brentford v. Watford | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
10* Brentford (10:00 AM ET): Brentford is an “in-form” side right now, having won four of its last five matches. This run has all but guaranteed that the Bees will be back in the English top flight next season, which is well deserved as this club is actually 7th in xPts (expected points) in the entire Premier League. Unfortunately, I can’t say the same for Watford, another side that was promoted before the start of this season. The Hornets currently sit 19th in the table and are six points clear of safety following last week’s results. So I’ll gladly take Brentford on the “draw no bet line” Saturday. Each of the L2 weeks have seen Brentford take down a top six side in the Premier League table. Who could forget what they did to Chelsea two weeks ago, scoring four times at Stamford Bridge? Then, last week I played them this same way (draw = no bet) against West Ham and the Bees walked away 2-0 winners at home. Now 12 points clear of the drop zone, Brentford can move past Aston Villa, Brighton & Crystal Palace with a win here and into 10th place. As for Watford, they have not won here at Vicarage Road since November (lost 9 in a row!), conceding 25 times during that particular losing streak. Only last place Norwich City and Leeds Unitied have conceded more goals this season and Watford’s three clean sheets are the fewest in the whole league. In the reverse fixture, Brentford dominated far more than the 2-1 final suggests and now that they’re in even better form, it should be an easy three points. 10* Brentford (Draw No Bet Line) |
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04-12-22 | Chelsea v. Real Madrid | Top | 3-1 | Win | 105 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
10* Chelsea (3:00 ET): Chelsea, the reigning UCL Champs, finds itself in a large hole as they trail Real Madrid 3-1 after the first leg. Now, the Blues have certainly proven themselves to be resilient in the past. Case in point; after shipping a stunning seven goals in B2B losses (Real Madrid, Brentford), they came back to smoke Southampton 6-0 in the Premier League over the weekend. While I would not be confident in Chelsea repeating that kind of result on Tuesday, I do like them to at least win at Real Madrid. Take the visitors on the “draw - no bet line.” To progress in this competition, Chelsea must erase the two-goal disadvantage from the first leg. That’s going to be extremely hard to do here at the Spanish capital, but winning by a goal is not as tall an order. They have failed to score in only one of the last 15 Champions League matches as the away team. The 6-0 win over Southampton was also the Blues’ seventh in a row away from Stamford Bridge. The number of goals conceded in those B2B losses to Brentford and Real Madrid were highly uncharacteristic for Thomas Tuchel’s club. Though Real Madrid won the first leg 3-1, the xG (expected goal difference) was only +0.7, so the match was closer than the final score suggests. Chelsea had the edge in both shots (20-8) and touches in the penalty area (24-8). Los Blancos will be without Eder Militao for the second leg as he’s suspended for picking up a second yellow card. That’s a significant loss for the home side. Can Karim Benzema really keep carrying them the way he has? Remember that Madrid were recently thumped (4-0) by Barcelona in La Liga and also needed a huge comeback of their own to oust PSG in the Round of 16 of this competition. 10* Chelsea |
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04-10-22 | West Ham United v. Brentford | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 44 h 22 m | Show |
10* Brentford (9:00 AM ET): What a performance from Brentford last week as the Bees put FOUR goals on the board against Chelsea in a stunning win. Not only was it a huge win over a top three EPL side, but it moved the Bees further away from the relegation zone, nine points clear, and up into 14th place. Really, this side “deserves” to be even higher in the table. They are a shocking eighth in xPts (expected points) coming into the weekend, quite impressive for a club in its first year back in the top flight. It’s another chance to shock one of the top teams on Sunday and I will play Brentford on the “draw - no bet line.” West Ham currently sits sixth in the table, only three points back of the top four. But what has the Hammers at a slight disadvantage is the fact that everyone else in the top seven has at least a match in hand. I don’t think the spot for the Hammers this week either; they are coming off a 1-1 draw in the Europa League quarterfinals on Thursday (vs. Lyon) and their away form has been poor since the new year. They’ve lost each of their last four away matches (across all competitions) and have not won a Premier League away match since Opening Day! They lost at home earlier in the season to Brentford, 2-1, at London Stadium as well. Truth be told, West Ham was lucky to escape with a draw midweek as they played with just 10 men the entire second half. Of course, that was after taking advantage of a red card last week against Everton. Also remember that the Hammers have the second leg vs. Lyon looming this week, so Brentford may not have their full attention. That could very well lead to disaster considering Brentford has now won three of four with 10 goals scored in league play. Brentford always plays better at home and they are healthier than they’ve been in a while. Look for them to capture all three points Sunday. 10* Brentford - Draw No Bet |
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04-10-22 | Crystal Palace +0.5 v. Leicester | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -150 | 41 h 7 m | Show |
8* Crystal Palace Goal Line (9:00 AM ET): Crystal Palace still has a lot to play for: a top half finish in the Premier League and they are in the semifinals of the FA Cup. A win in the FA Cup (no small task as the other three sides remaining are Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea) would guarantee European football next season. Regardless if they can win that competition, the Eagles are probably deserving of a top half finish in the league front. They enter the weekend 9th in xPts and at +4, aren’t all that fair off from the teams chasing the European places in the table. It’s been nearly a month since I last took CP; the day they earned points against Man City in a 0-0 draw. I’ll take them here on the goal line. It’s been a remarkable run of form lately for Crystal Palace as they haven’t conceded a single goal in any of their last four matches. That includes the aforementioned 0-0 draw against Man City and also three wins (over Wolverhampton, Everton and Arsenal). Last week’s 3-0 demolition of top four chasers Arsenal was as impressive as it gets. The Eagles are now unbeaten in their last seven across all competitions with five wins. So you can see why the goal line is such an attractive option here. It was a 2-2 draw when they faced Leicester City earlier this season. These two sides are actually level with 37 points, but while CP has four more goals than what they’ve conceded, Leicester is just the opposite, having shipped four more than they’ve scored. It’s also a tough spot here for Leicester, coming off a goalless draw midweek in the Europa Conference League (with PSV), which is their main concern right now. The Foxes have now won just once in their last five competitions as they drew with Man U (1-1) in the league last week. European fatigue could be very real here for the Foxes. 8* Crystal Palace Goal Line |
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04-10-22 | Fiorentina v. Napoli UNDER 2.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 57 m | Show |
10* Under Fiorentina/Napoli (9:00 AM ET): Napoli does not own the best goal differential in Serie A (reigning Scudetto holders Inter Milan does), but the Partenopei are closer to the summit than Inter is, just one point behind AC Milan entering Sunday. Napoli has not finished first in Serie A since 1990, so this title pursuit is quite serious. They come into this fixture with Fiorentina on a three-match win streak, but have actually won only three of their last eight at home. Fiorentina figures to be a tough test here. Fiorentina is also in the mix for European football next season as they are currently eighth in the table. While catching the top four is probably out of the question, they are just two points back of finishing sixth, which would mean Europa League qualifying. The Viola have taken 14 points from their last seven matches and are coming off a 1-0 win over Empoli last week. Though Fiorentina has conceded in each of their last 11 matches away from home and Napoli has scored at least twice in each of the last three meetings, I look for this to be a relatively low-scoring fixture. These are the top two teams in possession in Serie A. Napoli has conceded the fewest goals this season and Fiorentina allows the fewest shots per 90 minutes. Fiorentina has also conceded no more than one goal in each of its last five competitions with two clean sheets. Pace should be slow here. 10* Under Fiorentina/Napoli |
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04-09-22 | Union Berlin v. Hertha Berlin | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
10* Union Berlin (12:30 ET): There are very different goals for the two sides in the Berlin derby this Saturday. FC Union Berlin currently sits seventh in the Bundesliga table, as it’s been a very good 2021/22 season, and they are only three points adrift of Europa League qualifying for next season. They are also still alive in the DFB-Pokal, so FCUB fans have to be feeling like their chances of European football next season are strong. There’s a lot to play for over the next two months and the club came out of the international break by picking up a huge 1-0 win over Koln last weekend. Union now is FIFTH in xPts (expected points), so they are a worthy European challenger despite a -4 YTD goal differential. As for Hertha, they are simply struggling to survive in the German top flight. Entering Saturday, they sit 17th in the table (based on GD with Arminia Bielefeld), which would mean automatic relegation to the Bundesliga 2 for next season. Only Greuther Furth has a worse YTD goal differential than Hertha’s -33. Recent form suggests relegation is a very real possibility for this once proud side, which is already on its third manager of the season! The “new manager bounce” did result in a shocking 3-0 win over Hoffenheim right before the international break, however that is Hertha’s only points earned over its L7 matches. In each of the six losses, they have conceded multiple goals. Because Union Berlin only returned to the top flight in 2019, this derby has been played infrequently; just nine times since 1963! But Union will be gunning to make it THREE wins over their capital rivals this season as they beat them 2-0 in the reverse back in November, scoring both goals in the opening 30 minutes. Then, more recently, came a 3-2 win in the DFB-Pokal quarterfinals. Don’t think for a second that Union isn’t relishing the opportunity to pull an ultra-rare triple over Hertha and possibly knock them out of the Bundesliga for next season. Union possesses several matchup advantages in this fixture, so I will take them on the “draw-no bet line” (meaning a draw would count as a “push” not a loss. I expect Union to get all three points though. 10* Union Berlin - Draw No Bet |
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04-08-22 | Wolverhampton Wanderers +0.5 v. Newcastle United | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -140 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
8* Wolverhampton Goal Line (3:00 ET): The Wolves are very much in the mix for European football next season as - coming off a 2-1 home success over Aston Villa last time out - they sit just five points back of fourth (Champions League) and only two points back of sixth (Europa League). So a win here would move them into sixth position, ahead of both West Ham and Manchester United, although those two sides would have one and two matches in hand respectively. While I think a top four finish is stretching it, the Wolves will certainly be motivated here and I like them to claim at least a point against slumping Newcastle United on Friday. To be clear, by playing the goal line here, all we need is a draw from the Wolves to have ourselves a winning bet. Now I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see the Wolves get the win and claim all three points either. They won the reverse fixture 2-1 at Molineux back in October. However, the previous five encounters between these two sides in Premier League action all ended with the same 1-1 scoreline. I’ll take that here. Another key is the Wolves have the fourth best away record in the EPL this season. Only Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea have been better on their travels. Newcastle did win six of their seven Premier League matches from Jan 22 to March 10, likely saving them from relegation, but recently the Magpies have hit the skids with three consecutive defeats. They conceded five times last week to Tottenham and have the fourth worst defensive record in the league. Meanwhile, the Wolves have conceded the fourth fewest goals this term. Therefore, it certainly doesn’t help that Newcastle’s leading scorer Callum Wilson is out injured. I’ve said before that Wolverhampton is a bit fortunate to be so high in the table, but they are being drastically underrated in this spot against a side that is still 18th in the league in xPts (expected points). 8* Wolverhampton Goal Line |
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04-07-22 | Barcelona FC -145 v. Eintracht Frankfurt | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -145 | 40 h 25 m | Show |
10* Barcelona (3:00 ET): Big mismatch here in the quarterfinals of the Europa League where La Liga flagbearer Barcelona takes on Bundesliga side Eintracht Frankfurt. The former is having a much better season on the domestic front where it is now in a three-way tie for second (with Sevilla and Atletico). Meanwhile, Eintracht Frankfurt has slipped this season in the Bundesliga, down to ninth after finishing fifth last season. While Frankfurt remains unbeaten across its last six competitions, Barca has done even better, not tasting defeat in their last 13 trips onto the pitch and they have come out ahead in eight of their last nine. Barcelona was also far more impressive in the last round of the Europa League, progressing 2-1 on aggregate over Galatasaray. That lone goal conceded in the second leg is the ONLY goal conceded by Barca over the last five fixtures. Remember that they annihilated Real Madrid in El Clasico right before the International Break, then came back to defeat Sevilla 1-0 this past weekend. If that’s not enough, they’ve come out on top each of the last five away fixtures, scoring multiple goals every time. Meanwhile, Frankfurt may be unbeaten in six straight competitions, but they have had to share the points in each of the last three. They are off B2B goalless draws, including a very disappointing one this past weekend vs. Greuther Furth, the side that sits at the foot of the Bundesliga table. I don’t think Frankfurt has been all that impressive on the domestic front this season as they rank just 13th in xPts (expected points). Also, they were certainly fortunate to progress last round here in the Europa League as they needed an own goal from Real Betis at the end of added time to get here. I know Frankfurt hasn’t been beaten yet in the Europa League this campaign, but that changes Thursday. 10* Barcelona |
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04-06-22 | Mainz +125 v. FC Augsburg | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
6* Mainz (12:30 ET): This is a huge fixture for Mainz, who can go level with Union Berlin for seventh place in the Bundesliga and thus be only three points out of the European places. Mainz would be ahead of Union on goal differential, somewhat significantly, as they come into Wednesday still sporting a +9 YTD GD after drawing with Gladbach (1-1) on Sunday (Union Berlin is sporting a -4 GD). If you recall, I took Mainz on the goal line (+0.5) Sunday, so they were a winner on this end. Since the start of February, Mainz has only been beaten twice and one of those losses (1-0 to Dortmund) was a bad break. Mainz was actually my 10* Game of the Month on Sunday. That aforementioned goal differential is one of the reasons I’m a big believer in this side. Only the top five sides currently sport a better GD in the league. They are 7th in xPts (expected points). Prior to earning the draw at Gladbach, Mainz had whipped Arminia Bielefeld 4-0 before the international break. They also had a win over third place Leverkusen back in February. The bottom line is that I see the 05ers as being a lot stronger than their current 10th place standing shows. I also think that they are due for an away win. Coming off a surprisingly impressive 3-0 win over Wolfsburg, Augsburg will fancy its chances of making it B2B league wins as they are back on home soil where they have lost only one of their last six. But Augsburg has not won two straight league fixtures at any point this season! They too are desperate for a win, as they are only three points clear of the relegation zone, however this just isn’t a strong club. Die Fuggerstadter are third from the bottom in the league in xPts and have the third highest xGA (expected goals allowed). Back in October’s reverse fixture, it was all Mainz in a 4-1 thrashing. I expect them to make it a league double. 6* Mainz |
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04-05-22 | Atletico Madrid v. Manchester City UNDER 2.75 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 10 m | Show |
10* Under Atletico Madrid/Manchester City (3:00 ET): Atletico Madrid won’t be repeating as La Liga champions this season, but they are in the final eight of the Champions League, facing reigning Premier League champion Manchester City. Atletico ousted Manchester United from this competition in the Round of 16, winning 1-0 at Old Trafford to progress 2-1 on aggregate. Making it successive wins over a Premier League side would be quite the accomplishment for Diego Simeone’s side. They are away for the first leg, thus I’m expecting a relatively cautious approach from them. But I don’t think Atletico is going to concede multiple goals either. They sure haven’t lately. Man City has a huge showdown on deck this weekend in the EPL where they will welcome Liverpool here to Etihad Stadium with first place on the line. So, believe it or not, this Champions League tie may not have the Citizens’ full attention. While they made it to the Final of this competition last season (lost to Chelsea), the previous three years all saw Man City ousted in the round of eight. But, as is the case with Atletico, the one thing I am confident in here with Man City is that they won’t be conceding multiple goals here either. They’ve conceded an EPL-low 18 goals this season and in the Round of 16 of this competition, Man City didn’t concede a single goal to Sporting CP. While Man City did score five times in the away leg vs. Sporting, it was a 0-0 draw here at the Etihad. Atletico is second in xGA (expected goals allowed) in La Liga and has conceded no more than one goal in each of the last four UCL fixtures. City created only 2.9 xG (expected goals) in the two legs vs. Sporting. Again, Atletico is likely to play cautiously here and be willing to take the draw as the second leg is in Madrid. The pace of this match should be quite slow with City dominating possession, but not creating many scoring chances. 10* Under Atletico Madrid/Manchester City |
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04-04-22 | Bologna v. AC Milan UNDER 2.75 | Top | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
8* Under Bologna/AC Milan (2:45 ET): AC Milan will enter matchday 31 level with Napoli (66 points) for first place in Serie A. So any points will put them back on the table here. (It should also be noted that Inter could within three of the summit, depending on how they fare Sunday vs. Juventus. That result was not final as of press time). The Red & Blacks have not won the Scudetto since 2011, but they come into April in fine form, having won three straight in the league by the same 1-0 score. Milan defeated Napoli, Empoli and Cagliari during that time. Napoli was obviously a huge win while taking the full three points from the other two was certainly expected. It’s another opponent from the bottom half of the table Monday. In my analysis for Saturday’s 10* Game of the Week winner on Torino, I spoke of the gap that exists in goal differential between the top 11 and bottom nine in Serie A. Bologna is on the wrong side of the gap, now in 13th, after Udinese won yesterday. It has been a poor run of form for the Red and Blues in 2022 as they have just one win since Dec 22! Over their last 10 matches, Bologna has lost seven times and scored a total of just five goals. They were goalless in March, but on the bright side they conceded only twice in the last three matches. When it comes to goal scoring, Bologna has been especially reliant on set pieces this season. They figure to not get many opportunities here against AC Milan, who have conceded the fourth fewest number of goals in Serie A this season after not conceding a single time in March. But Bologna is no defensive pushover; their defensive record is in the top half of the league. One thing I find interesting is that only 23 of AC Milan’s 56 goals this season have come here at San Siro. But Bologna has only 14 goals on its travels. 8* Under Bologna/AC Milan |
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04-03-22 | Rayo Vallecano v. Granada OVER 2.25 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
10* Over Granada/Rayo Vallecano (12:30 ET): Granada actually finds themselves at the bottom of the league in xPts (expected points) after being bottom three in that metric last season. Somehow they may again avoid relegation, although as of press time they are just two points clear of the drop zone in La Liga and that’s after a last gasp win over last place Alaves two weeks ago when the game winner came five minutes into stoppage time. That wild 3-2 victory snapped a 10-match winless run in the Spanish top flight and there’s still clearly work to be done if they are to avoid being sent down to the Segunda Division. Rayo Vallecano earned promotion from the Segunda Division last season and got off to a shockingly good start in the top flight here in 2021-22. But they too have hit the skids recently with no wins over their last nine fixtures (across all competitions), which includes seven losses and an exit from the Copa del Rey. Vallecano now finds itself down in 13th place, four points ahead of Granada, so they are a little safer when it comes to the threat of relegation but not out of the woods quite yet. They have not won in the league since Dec 18 against Alaves and have conceded at least once in each of those L9 matches. In six of Granada’s last eight matches, there have been more than 2.5 xG (expected goals). A lot of that has to do with their poor defensive record, which is fourth worst in all of La Liga right now. They are dead last in the league in xGA (expected goals allowed) as well as shots allowed. They’ve conceded at least one goal in nine of the last 10 matches and multiple goals six different times in that stretch. So I see this one going Over the total on Sunday. It was actually 4-0 in favor of Vallecano when these sides met in the reverse back in August. 10* Over Granada/Rayo Vallecano |
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04-03-22 | Mainz +0.5 v. Borussia Monchengladbach | Top | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 26 h 43 m | Show |
10* Mainz +0.5 (11:30 AM ET): These two Bundesliga sides are separated by only four points and two spots in the table. But goal differential (don’t we always go back to that?) says the gap should be a lot wider. Mainz, who doesn’t usually find themselves in the top half of the table, still has a chance at a top six finish which would have them playing European football next season. They have two matches in hand compared to everyone above them and as long as they can pick up points in each of the next two fixtures (this one and Weds vs. Augsburg), they’ll be in good shape. I don’t see Mainz doing any worse than a draw on Sunday and thus will play them +0.5 on the goal line. Back to goal differential, Mainz is actually +9 this season, which is sixth best in the entire Bundesliga! Despite having played two fewer matches than almost everybody in the league, they are seventh in xPts. Now compare that to Borussia Monchengladbach, who has a -13 GD in what has been a down year for them. While there has been a bit of a recent resurgence for Gladbach, winning two in a row, they still are only seven points clear of automatic relegation. Also, the two sides that Gladbach recently beat - Hertha Berlin and Bochum - are both in the bottom half of the table. Before the Int’l Break, Mainz ran out to a 4-0 win over Arminia Bielefeld, which was much needed following losses to Union Berlin and Dortmund. But they’d also previously beaten top three Leverkusen. I’m just very surprised at the pricing on this matchup as Mainz is the better side and seemingly has an edge when it comes to pressing against Gladbach’s poor transition defense. Also, Mainz has conceded the second fewest number of goals in the league this season. Gladbach is tied for third MOST conceded and over its L15 matches has only held two sides (Bielefeld & Hertha) under 1.0 xG. Again, betting the goal line means that all we need is a draw here. I think Mainz is likely to win. 10* Mainz +0.5 |
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04-02-22 | Torino -110 v. Salernitana | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 24 h 22 m | Show |
10* Torino (2:45 ET): Torino was last victorious all the way back on January 15th. It’s been eight straight matches without a win, though four of those results have been draws. This winless run has left them 11th in the table, well clear of the relegation zone, but even more distant from the top six. Two weeks ago, before the International break, it was a brutal result having to share the points with reigning Scudetto holders Inter Milan, who made it a 1-1 draw by scoring the equalizer in the third minute of stoppage time. But here on Saturday, Torino will face the perfect opponent to get all three points. Salernitana sits at the bottom of the Serie A table with only 16 points and their chances of survival are looking slimmer by the week. A league-worst -43 goal differential seemingly confirms what we already know; this is the worst team in Serie A and they’re going to be “one and done” in the Italian top flight. Saleritana’s winless run goes back even further than Torino’s (now nine straight) as they last won a match on January 8th. They have shared the points on five separate occasions, but were held goalless in two of their three March fixtures, admittedly by Inter and Juventus. When these two sides faced off in the reverse fixture back in September, it was all Torino, rolling to a 4-0 victory. That remains their most convincing margin of victory of the season, tied with a win by the same score of Fiorentina on January 10th. I simply happen to think Torino “deserves” to be higher in the table; closer to the top eight. They are 9th in xPts (expected points), higher than either Sassuolo or Hellas Verona, despite having played one fewer match. Meanwhile, Salernitana is dead last in the league in every metric, including dead last in goals scored and allowed. 10* Torino |
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04-02-22 | RB Leipzig v. Borussia Dortmund | Top | 4-1 | Win | 105 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
8* RB Leipzig +0.0 (12:30 PM ET): This is a top four clash in the Bundesliga with the two sides separated by 12 points, but a lot closer on goal differential. I think Borussia Dortmund should feel extremely fortunate to be only six points behind first place Bayern Munich. BVB has greatly overperformed its xG total this season, mostly thanks to Erling Haaland, but he’s now listed as doubtful for Saturday after sustaining an injury in Norway’s international friendly against Armenia. That’s a big blow when facing a side like Leipzig, who has lost only once in 2022 (to Bayern Munich) and is unbeaten in its last nine matches. Leipzig may be in a tight three-way battle for fourth right now (with Freiburg and Hoffenheim), but they are a deserved top four side in my opinion, based on the similar GD to Dortmund and third place Leverkusen. Leipzig was actually first in the league last season in xPts (yes, ahead of Bayern!) and this season, they are second in that regard, just ahead of Dortmund. While they haven’t matched BVB in goal scoring this season, I think it’s just as important to note they’ve conceded eight fewer times. Also, since the turn of the year, no Bundesliga side has picked up more points than Leipzig has (23). Even if Haaland does play here, I don’t see Leipzig doing any worse than a draw. They deserved better than a 0-0 draw against Eintracht Frankfurt two weeks ago. There have been multiple frustrating draws for this team, which is why they’re not firmly in the top four, but I can certainly see Leipzig winning here as they’ve been the better side compared to Dortmund over the last few months. Even with Haaland on the pitch, BVB has scored only four times in the last four fixtures. Leipzig beat Dortmund 2-1 back in November and this is a huge fixture for them to get points. 8* RB Leipzig (DRAW = NO BET) |
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04-02-22 | Brentford v. Chelsea UNDER 2.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 39 m | Show |
9* Under Brentford/Chelsea (10:00 AM ET): I think we all figure that Chelsea is finishing third in the Premier League table this season. That would actually be an improvement from last year (when they finished fourth), but right now the Blues’ greater concern may be with attaining a couple of pieces of hardware in the FA Cup (where they’ve progressed to the semis) and repeating in the Champions League (where they’re now in the quarterfinals). Still there is work to be done on the domestic front as Chelsea only has a five point advantage over fourth. I expect the usual impeccable play on the back end in this fixture. While there is current drama in the front office regarding future ownership of the club, Chelsea has won six straight across all competitions and allowed a total of only three goals in the last five. That’s what we’ve come to expect under Thomas Tuchel as his side has consistently conceded very few goals during his managerial watch. Only first place Manchester City has conceded fewer goals this season and only second place Liverpool has conceded fewer times at home. Twice this season the Blues have faced Brentford (Saturday’s opponent) - once in the EFL Cup and once in league play. Neither time did they allow a goal to be scored. Now Brentford, a newly promoted side for this season, has just one goal at this point and that is to avoid relegation. They enter Saturday eight points clear of the drop zone and honestly deserve to be even further away based on how they’ve played in their return season to the Premier League. They only lost 1-0 to Chelsea in the reverse, back in October. Unfortunately for the Bees, they just don’t score much when facing the top Premier League teams. Against the top five in xGA (expected goals allowed), they’ve managed only 7.7 xG (expected goals). But with Chelsea in a “look ahead” to next week’s first leg vs. Real Madrid in the UCL, I don’t see them being all that aggressive here. That’s good for Brentford, whose only allowed three goals in the previous two matches vs. Chelsea. 9* Under Brentford/Chelsea |
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04-02-22 | Norwich City v. Brighton & Hove Albion UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
9* Under Norwich City/Brighton (10:00 AM ET): Brighton was my pick, at the start of the season, to be the most improved side in all of Europe (not just the Premier League). At the start of the season, things were looking great as they were in the top half of the table, even sniffing the European places. That’s a vast improvement for a side that finished an unlucky 16th last season. But now, following a poor run of form (six straight losses), the Seagulls are down in 13th position. They’re more than safe from relegation, but it’s a disappointing spot to be in, given the start to the campaign. The biggest problem has been goal scoring. They’ve managed just ONE goal during the winless run. The opponents for Saturday, Norwich City, are in last place in the table and on a seven-match losing streak. So something is going to have to give here. The Canaries haven’t been quite as sad as Brighton in the goal scoring department, at least recently, but still have managed only five goals in those seven straight defeats. Obviously, a trip back down to the second tier continues to look more and more likely as Norwich has clearly been the EPL’s worst side this season. They have a -45 YTD goal differential and have scored the fewest goals in the league (18). Even worse for Norwich is that this fixture is away. They are the only EPL side yet to have hit 10 goals on their travels this season. They’ve also failed to score a single goal in any of their last three meetings with Brighton. It was 0-0 when these two met on the pitch back in October and I would not rule out a repeat of that scoreline here. More than one goal seems rather unlikely, so I love the Under for a second time this week in the Premier League as goals will be in short order in this Saturday morning fixture. 9* Under Norwich City/Brighton |
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03-20-22 | Atalanta -120 v. Bologna | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 27 h 46 m | Show |
10* Atalanta (3:45 ET): This is a very low price on Atalanta, considering the respective positions in the table. La Dea is currently sixth, eight points off the Champions League places, so they REALLY need a win here, especially with frontrunning Napoli on deck in two weeks. Bologna has been a mid-table side most of this season, but to me there’s a massive gap in quality between the top and bottom halves in Serie A. Bologna has just one win since the New Year and has been blanked five times in 2022 including both March fixtures. They simply lack the firepower to compete in Sunday’s fixture. Now Atalanta has picked up just one point from its last two Serie A battles, that coming from a goalless draw with Genoa last week. The good news though is that they have progressed in the Europa League, after beating Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 on Thursday. Typically, Atalanta has been a side that has had to rely on goal scoring to get the win as they usually have a leaky back end. But things have shored up on the back recently as La Dea has conceded only two goals in its last four Serie A fixtures and kept five clean sheets over their last six competitions overall! They didn’t allow a goal when they faced Bologna back in August, though that ended up another 0-0 draw. Bologna may have a false sense of hope here due to the fact Atalanta has not scored a Serie A goal in 200 minutes and in any of their last three away matches. But, one would have to go back to 2015 to find the last time Atalanta went four straight on the road without a goal. I believe the dam is due to break here, similar to when La Dea ran away as 4-0 winners over Sampdoria last month. They have nine wins and just two losses in 14 Serie A away matches thus far, so they’d been playing well away from home prior to this recent drought. They have the third best away record in the league. 10* Atalanta |
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03-20-22 | Villarreal -120 v. Cadiz CF | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
9* Villarreal (11:15 AM ET): Back on Wednesday, I gave out Villarreal, saying that I didn’t understand how one of the hottest sides in all of Europe could be priced as such a decided underdog. Sure enough, the Yellow Submarine made me look VERY good, defeating Juventus 3-0 to advance to the Champions League quarterfinal. Here in La Liga, Villarreal still has work to do as they currently sit just seventh in the table with 45 points, despite (as of Saturday) having the league’s third best GD (+22). I firmly believe this is a top four side in the Spanish top flight and will take them again here as they continue to be underrated by the oddsmakers. Making the price on Villarreal all the more “eye-opening” here is that the opponent is Cadiz, a bottom of the table side that is currently in the relegation zone with 24 points. Cadiz was quite lucky to avoid relegation last season as they were actually second to last in xPts, despite a 12th place finish. So regression was inevitable for 2021/22. As of press time, they are two points adrift of safety, so a win Saturday would be huge. Problem is they have just one win across their last six fixtures and victory here is quite unlikely. The 3-3 draw that played out between these sides in the reverse isn’t likely to be repeated on Sunday. That’s because Villarreal has been on such a tear; since Dec 10 they have been averaging nearly 2.00 xG per match while allowing fewer than 1.0. Given their current standing here in La Liga, I don’t anticipate any kind of “hangover” from the Yellow Submarine off the UCL win midweek. This is one they absolutely should win as they could move into the top six with a win, not to mention inch closer to the top four, which is where they belong. 9* Villarreal |
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03-19-22 | Atletico Madrid +108 v. Rayo Vallecano | Top | 1-0 | Win | 108 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
10* Atletico Madrid (4:00 ET): Atletico has surged into the top four in La Liga, now with 51 points, which is tied with Barcelona for third. Given who Barca is facing this weekend (Real Madrid), today is an excellent opportunity for last year’s La Liga champs to move into third all by their lonesome. They are facing a Rayo Vallecano side that has not won in some time now. Los Franjirrojos have gone winless over their last seven fixtures with the only points earned coming in last week’s 1-1 draw with Sevilla. As a result, they have slipped to 13th in the table, although relegation is not a real concern at this point. Atletico has won its last four La Liga matches and prevailed midweek over Manchester United in the Champions League. So this side has a lot of confidence right now. It is unlikely that they will repeat as La Liga Champs this season, as they are 15 points back of Real Madrid currently. But I certainly see them finishing here in the top four and possibly even challenging for second. In each of their previous four La Liga victories, Atletico has scored at least two goals. For the season, I think they’ve been a little unfortunate to concede 36 goals as their xGA (expected goals allowed) is only 25.76. That’s a big gap and should start to rectify itself, moving forward. Rayo Vallecano has not scored more than once in any competition since a 2-1 victory over second tier side Girona in the Copa del Rey, back on January 15th. The last time Rayo scored multiple times in a La Liga fixture was before the turn of the year, a 2-0 win over bottom side Alaves. So they simply lack the firepower to keep up with Atletico here. Sure enough, Atletico dominated the reverse fixture earlier this season, winning 2-0. It’s a real value (in my opinion) to get them at “plus money” on Saturday. 10* Atletico Madrid |
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03-19-22 | Arminia Bielefeld v. Mainz -160 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
10* Mainz (10:30 AM ET): Mainz was oh so close to sharing the points with Dortmund midweek. But Die Nullfunfer conceded late, with just three minutes left in normal time, and took a 1-0 loss instead. It was their second consecutive loss, keeping them 10th in the table with 34 points. But as mentioned in Wednesday’s analysis, Mainz still owns a better YTD goal differential than the three sides directly above them. I think Saturday’s fixture, at home, is a favorable one and will play accordingly. The opponent here is Arminia Bielefeld, who is still facing the threat of relegation, just two points ahead of the drop zone. Like Mainz, Bielefeld is coming off a 1-0 loss to Dortmund, theirs coming back on Sunday. It was their second straight loss by that exact scoreline and third straight loss without a goal. Only last place Greuther Furth (3) has fewer wins this season than Bielefeld (5). Even more damning is the fact that Bielefeld is actually last in the league on xPts with 19.86. They very much are in a fight to remain here in the German top flight. Bielefeld has been extraordinarily lucky that they haven’t conceded more goals this season as their xGA (expected goals allowed) is 47.39. The gap between number of actual goals allowed and xGA is easily the largest in the entire Bundesliga (+13.39). As for Mainz, they actually have the second LOWEST xGA in the Bundesliga, trailing only Bayern, with 29.45. They are also tied for third fewest number of actual goals conceded. With their European hopes fleeting, winning here is a virtual must for Mainz. I believe they will as they beat Bielefeld in the reverse, 2-1, back in October. 10* Mainz |
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03-18-22 | Leeds United v. Wolverhampton Wanderers +120 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
10* Wolverhampton (4:00 ET): With B2B wins, the Wolves’ hopes of playing European football next season are very much alive. You may recall I had the Over when they faced Watford two weeks ago. That bet cashed in the 21st minute as the Wolves raced out to an early 3-0 lead and then added another goal late, for good measure. They kept another clean sheet last week, beating Everton 1-0. Now, for the third week in a row, the Wolves face a bottom of the table side as Leeds United comes calling to Molineux. This time, I’m jumping on the Wolves as Leeds a) isn’t very good and b) is off a rare win. That rare win for Leeds came against Norwich, the side sitting at the foot of the EPL table. Norwich have been relegation bound for some time now, but Leeds may very well join them given their YTD goal differential (-34), which is second worst in the entire Premier League. The Whites are currently 16th in the table with only 26 points and just four clear of the drop zone. Everton winning yesterday (1-0 over Newcastle United) puts even more pressure on. Given the freefall that preceded the win over Norwich, I cannot anticipate Leeds winning again here. They’ve yet to win B2B matches this season. Leeds were deserved winners last week, winning the xG battle, but it was nearly “heartbreak hotel” when they conceded an equalizer one minute into stoppage time. Improbably, Leeds then answered with a last gasp goal to grab all three points. While xGA says the Wolves have been a bit fortunate to concede the fourth fewest goals in the league this season, I don’t think they’re in any trouble here as they look to make it three consecutive clean sheets. It also helps that Leeds has conceded the MOST goals in the league at 65. The Wolves should have won the reverse fixture earlier this season, but gave up a stoppage time equalizer after leading 1-0 for 84 minutes. This time, they get it done. 10* Wolverhampton |
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03-18-22 | Spezia Calcio v. Sassuolo Calcio -159 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
8* Sassuolo (1:45 ET): Spezia picked up a rare win here in Serie A last weekend, besting Cagliari 2-0. That win certainly helped the Aquilotti in the race to avoid relegation as they are now seven points clear of safety. But I find it difficult to believe this side, which has struggled mightily for most of 2021-22, can make it B2B wins here in the Italian top flight, or even share the points with Sassuolo, who has scored two or more goals 18 times this season, including each of their last five. In other words, you certainly should not expect another clean sheet from the visitors. Sassuolo is firmly a mid-table side at this point, currently 10th with 40 points. The top four is certainly out of reach for I Neroverdi, but qualifying for the Europa League is certainly still in play as they are only eight points back of sixth. Still, needing to jump several sides in the table, last week’s 2-2 draw with last place Salernitana was a massive disappointment and not just because I was on Sassuolo. After conceding early (8th minute), Sassuolo struck back with two of their own, but unfortunately a red card was handed out in the 59th minute, leaving them a man down and they gave up the equalizer in the 81st minute. I can’t see Sassuolo making the same mistake again and dropping points to another bottom tier side in the league. They’d won three in a row prior to last week’s draw and are still unbeaten in the league in their last five matches. Meanwhile, Spezia had lost four in a row before picking up the full three points last week. Other than a three-match win streak back in January, Spezia has not won consecutive Serie A matches all season. This is an excellent time to fade as Spezia is bottom three in xPts this season. 8* Sassuolo |
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03-16-22 | Liverpool -110 v. Arsenal | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 26 h 30 m | Show |
10* Liverpool (4:15 ET): After losing last week’s second leg of the Champions League tie with Inter Milan (still advanced on aggregate), Liverpool wasted no time in bouncing back on the domestic front, beating Brighton & Hove Albion 2-0 in the return to the Premier League. That win was the Reds’ eighth straight here in the EPL and third consecutive “clean sheet.” Six times during the 8-0 run here in the EPL, Liverpool has not allowed a goal. They now trail Man City by only four points for first in the table after the Citizens were held to a 0-0 draw by Crystal Palace on Monday. This is a golden opportunity to further close the gap. I believe they will. Arsenal is currently fourth, holding onto that last Champions League spot, and the Gunners have to be feeling good about their chances as they have three matches in hand compared to the three sides directly below them in the table. They too are in fine form with five consecutive Premier League victories, the most recent being 2-0 over Leicester City. But, as I’m about to get into, Liverpool has had Arsenal’s number in recent meetings. Going back to September 2020, Arsenal has failed to score a single goal in five head to head meetings with Liverpool. The most recent was a 2-0 loss in the EFL Cup semi-finals. It was a 4-0 win for Liverpool at Anfield in Premier League action, earlier this season. I just think that there’s a real “gap” in quality between the top three and Arsenal this season and we’re about to be reminded of that. Liverpool has the best GD in the EPL and I would not be shocked if they overtook Man City for first place by season’s end. 10* Liverpool |
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03-16-22 | Villarreal +0.5 v. Juventus | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
9* Villarreal (4:00 ET): I’m a little surprised at how the tide has seemingly “turned” against Villarreal, one of the hottest sides in all of Europe, following their 1-1 draw with Juventus in the first leg of this Round of 16 Champions League battle. Yes, it was terribly disappointing not to get the win on home soil. But I thought the Yellow Submarine looked like the better side in that match, winning both the possession and xG battles. They conceded a goal just thirty seconds in, but after that were the better team the rest of the way. So I am taking them +0.5 on the goal line in the second leg. (Must be at least even after 90 mins + stoppage time). Since Dec 10, when the UCL Group State ended, Villarreal has been averaging 1.95 xG per match while allowing just 0.93. That is very impressive. While still only seventh in the La Liga table, the Yellow Submarine have the third best GD in that league and should be higher. Looking at their current position on the domestic front, there’s probably a greater importance of winning this tournament, compared to the other remaining sides as there is far less of a guarantee that they will be returning next season. Juventus has moved up to fourth place in Serie A after what was a shaky start to the season. But their underlying metrics (in a weaker league) are not as strong as Villarreal’s. I know they are unbeaten in their last 12 fixtures across all competitions and have not lost at home in 2022. But It would not all surprise me to see Villarreal pull off the “upset” here, or like I said, at the very least be even at the end of stoppage time. Take the +0.5 on the goal line in this one. 9* Villarreal |
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03-16-22 | Borussia Dortmund v. Mainz +0.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 53 m | Show |
9* Mainz 05 (1:30 ET): For the first time in nearly a month, Mainz will step back onto the pitch, looking to further its chase for the European places in the Bundesliga. We last saw this side back on Feb 26, losing at Union Berlin by a score of 3-1. With all that has unfolded since, Mainz now finds itself 10th in the table, which is higher than usual but also disappointing given that they have a better YTD goal differential than the four teams directly ahead of them. At home and rested, I think they do no worse than a draw on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Borussia Dortmund is still somehow within striking distance of first place Bayern Munich, only seven points shy of the summit. I feel that Bayern should be running away with another Bundesliga title (would be their 10th straight), but recent struggles from the table leaders have caused this race to stay interesting. Dortmund is unbeaten in its last four competitions, including a 1-0 win over Arminia Bielefeld last week. But, at what point does the transfer talk surrounding Erling Haaland (rumored to be headed to Man City) begin to affect the club? I think soon! Mainz has only lost once on home soil this entire season, fewest in the entire Bundesliga. So that’s a key advantage coming into Wednesday’s fixture. Also, I really feel they ought to be higher in the table. Between this and Saturday’s date with Bielefeld, they’ve got an excellent shot at making up points this week. Obviously, they’re well-rested. Finally, you’ve got the fact that Dortmund has been a massive overachiever when it comes to goal scoring this season. They are +14.53 over their xG total. 9* Mainz 05 |
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03-14-22 | Manchester City v. Crystal Palace +1.5 | Top | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
10* Crystal Palace +1.5 (4:00 ET): Note that I’m playing the goal line (+1.5) in this fixture, so a Crystal Palace win, draw or even loss by one goal means we’re winners. Now fading Man City in this spot may seem a bit “risky,” but this will be the Citizens fourth match already in March, across three different competitions. Having already progressed in both the FA Cup and Champions League, the Premier League leaders also turned in an impressive 4-1 thrashing of rivals Manchester United last week. I think that there’s GOT to be some sort of letdown in store for them and CP has proven itself to be a “tough out” on home soil. Crystal Palace currently finds itself 11th in the table, with 33 points, however the Eagles should probably be higher given that they are eighth in the league in xPts. CP comes in on a four-match unbeaten run across all competitions, including their own advancement in the FA Cup. They ran out to a 2-0 win over Wolverhampton last week and have the edge here in the sense they haven’t played since last Saturday while Man City had to play the second leg of its Round of 16 Champions League tie with Sporting Lisbon on Wednesday. That ended up being a drab 0-0 draw. As mentioned earlier, Crystal Palace has been a “tough out” on home soil this season and should have more points. They are actually fourth in the league in xPts at home, so they are due for a positive result here. Remember that the Eagles shocked Man City earlier in the season with a 2-0 win at Etihad. The revenge angle, while in play for Man City, has clearly caused them to be overvalued for the rematch and I’ll gladly take the 1.5 goals in my “back pocket” with the underdog in this one. Man City comes into this one a little depleted on the back end. 10* Crystal Palace +1.5 |
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03-14-22 | Real Madrid -180 v. Mallorca | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
7* Real Madrid (4:00 ET): Hard for me to see Real Madrid, the leaders in La Liga, dropping points to relegation-threatened Mallorca in this Monday fixture. Los Blancos are looking to make it four straight wins in La Liga - and five in a row overall. They are coming off a thrilling 3-1 win over PSG in the Champions League, which allowed them to advance to the final eight in that competition. Here on the domestic front, Real Madrid has outscored its last three opponents by an aggregate of 8-1. They are seven points clear at the summit of the table after second place Sevilla had to settle for a draw on Sunday. Recent form has been much different for Mallorca, who has dropped four straight league matches, including a wild 4-3 setback at the hands of Celta Vigo last week. You may recall that I had Celta Vigo, citing the fact Mallorca had picked up only eight points on their travels this entire season. It was a brutal loss for the Pirates after equalizing on three different occasions, once via a Celta own goal and another on a late penalty. But it was Manolo Reina being shown a red card that led to the game-winner, a penalty in the seventh minute of stoppage time, causing a brutal result for Mallorca. Mallorca still sits 16th in the table, just two points clear of safety. They have the third worst GD in La Liga (-19), are tied for the second most goals allowed and only Alaves and Levante (the bottom two sides) have more losses. While the Pirates have been a bit more competitive on home soil this season, let’s not forget Real Madrid has the best away mark in La Liga with 29 points picked up from 13 matches. Also, Los Blancos won the reverse 6-1 back in September, which was their highest scoring match to date. I just find it very hard to believe the table leaders don’t take the full three here as they look to make it a 10 point lead over everyone else. 7* Real Madrid |
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03-13-22 | Alavés v. Real Sociedad UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 52 m | Show |
10* Under Alaves/Real Sociedad (1:30 ET): Sociedad has managed to stay in the top seven of La Liga, despite a -1 GD, and a win here could move them as high as fifth. But looking at the other clubs fighting for the European positions, Sociedad’s YTD GD really does “stick out like a sore thumb” and I remain leery. Last week’s 4-1 thrashing at the hands of table leaders Real Madrid illustrates the gap in quality between Sociedad and the top six, thus I won’t be backing them to collect the full three points here. Now I’m also not about to back Alaves, who sit 19th and in the relegation zone. El Glorioso are now winless in 14 of their last 15 fixtures after last week’s 0-0 draw with Sevilla. They should be somewhat commended for keeping Sevilla off the scoresheet, however scoring also continues to be a major problem for Alaves themselves as they come in dead last in the league in goals scored with just 21. There has been just one occasion since the new year where they scored more than one goal. Five times they haven’t scored at all. La Real has only averaged 1.17 xG per match in 2022 and for the season they are just 13th in shots. So the offense isn’t really where most expected it to be. They’ll be dealing with some absences from the usual starting XI on Sunday as well. Sociedad knows that it might only take a single goal to prevail here; I don’t see them scoring twice. At the same time, they probably don’t need to worry about Alaves scoring. It was 1-1 when these teams met on Jan 2. Expect another low-scoring battle. 10* Under Alaves/Real Sociedad |
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03-12-22 | Bayern Munich -168 v. Hoffenheim | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -168 | 18 h 49 m | Show |
8* Bayern Munich (9:30 AM ET): After absolutely thrashing Salzburg midweek in the Champions League (won 7-1!), Bayern Munich next turns its attention back to the domestic front where they’ll look to widen the gap atop the Bundesliga. Bayern currently has a nine point lead over Borussia Dortmund, but really the gap should be much larger as the nine-time defending champs are once again the class of this league. After a disappointing 1-1 draw with Leverkusen last week, I think that Bayern is about to remind everyone “who’s boss” one more time on Saturday. They are set to face Hoffenheim, another top four side, although you could certainly question whether or not Die Kraichgauer “deserve” to be this high in the table. I certainly believe RB Leipzig (who currently sits in fifth) to be better and Hoffenheim is actually 7th in xPts. Off four consecutive victories, the home side is definitely confident rolling into Saturday’s fixture, however let us not forget they were crushed 4-0 in the reverse against Bayern, back in October. During the four-game win streak, the only team in the top half of the table that Hoffenheim has defeated was Koln, last week by a score of 1-0. I just can’t see the win streak continuing here and even the chance of sharing the points (draw) seems remote, given that they have been outscored 8-1 the last two times they’ve faced Bayern and conceded four or more times in four of the last five meetings. Look for the visitors to claim all three points here. 8* Bayern Munich |
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03-12-22 | Sassuolo Calcio -120 v. Salernitana | Top | 2-2 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 27 m | Show |
10* Sassuolo (9:00 AM ET): Salernitana, at the foot of the table (last place) in Serie A, is staring some dubious history in the face. After getting beat 5-0 by Inter Milan last week, the Granata have now conceded 61 goals in 26 matches this season. Only 10 other sides in Serie A history have done that and eight of them, including Crotone last year, ended up being relegated at season’s end. Currently 10 points adrift of safety, I don’t think there’s any doubt at this point that Salernitana won’t be able to escape the drop zone. If the last place team thinks things are going to get any easier this week, they better think again because in comes red hot Sassuolo, who has won three straight to move into the top half of the table with 39 points. Despite those winning ways, Sassuolo remains eight points back of the European places (needing to finish at least 6th), so they will view this as a golden opportunity to pick up three more. Since the start of 2022, only four Serie A sides have picked up more points and last week saw Sassuolo dismantle another relegation-threatened side, Venezia, 4-1. The home edge means little to Salernitana here as they’ve picked up a league low eight points on home soil and haven’t won here at Stadio Arechi in any of their last nine tries. Going by xG, they very much “deserved” to be beaten badly by Inter last week. It was only 1-0 (in Sassuolo’s favor) in the reverse fixture back in September, but now Sassuolo comes in having scored multiple goals in four straight matches (10 total). 10* Sassuolo |
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03-10-22 | Watford v. Wolverhampton Wanderers OVER 2 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
9* Over Watford/Wolverhampton (2:30 ET): These two slumping Premier League sides are both desperate for three points coming into Thursday. Wolverhampton, though still in the top half of the table, has dropped three straight with the most recent loss being 2-0 at the hands of Crystal Palace. That was after being blanked 1-0 by West Ham and a gut-wrenching 2-1 loss to Arsenal. Thankfully for the Wolves, it’s a drop in class here as they face relegation-threatened Watford, who sits 19th in the table and has won just one time since late November! Yet Watford is still somehow just three points adrift of safety, so a win here would do the Hornets wonders. I faded them their last time out, which ended up being a 3-2 loss to Arsenal. That was Watford’s first time putting two goals on the board since a 4-2 loss to Leicester City on November 28th! But looking at this fixture, the Wolves’ defense is not as impenetrable as it once was and they are due to start conceding more. The gap between the number of actual goals allowed by the Wolves (23) and their xGA (37.29) is by far the largest in all of the Premier League. I do think the Wolves are due to get on the scoresheet themselves though. They’ve shockingly failed to score a goal in three of their last four fixtures here at Molineux, a run I just can’t see continuing. Not with Watford having conceded the third most goals in the entire EPL. With me projecting both sides to score on Thursday, taking the Over here seems to be a “no brainer.” 9* Over Watford/Wolverhampton |
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03-08-22 | Inter Milan v. Liverpool -172 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -172 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
7* Liverpool (3:00 ET): Liverpool has displayed remarkable form, having not tasted defeat at all in 2022. Saturday’s 1-0 win over West Ham made it 12 straight wins across four different competitions, as the Reds have already bagged the EFL Cup and progressed to the quarterfinals of the FA Cup. The win over West Ham kept them within six points of the top of the Premier League table. But It has been their play here in the Champions League that has been the most impressive. Tuesday sees them looking to make it eight straight wins to open their UCL campaign. No English side has ever done that before. In the first leg of this Round of 16 tie, the Reds went to San Siro and beat Inter Milan 2-0. Both Roberto Firmino and Mohamed Salah found the back of the net, scoring in the 75th and 83rd minute respectively. Having already beaten their Serie A opponents on the road, Liverpool is now heavily favored to progress to the quarterfinals of this event. The second leg is of course at Anfield (where they have not lost with Virgil van Dijk in the lineup). Liverpool doesn’t HAVE to win here to advance (only needs a draw or one-goal loss) but I think that they will win. Being at home is significant, not just because of their own prowess at Anfield, but also because Inter simply hasn’t been that good on the road of late. They’ve tallied just one goal in their last four away matches. Only one team in the history of the Champions League has ever come back from a two-goal deficit in the first leg at home to advance. Inter hasn’t even made the last eight in the UCL since 2010-11. 7* Liverpool |
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03-06-22 | Mallorca v. Celta de Vigo -129 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
9* Celta Vigo (12:30 ET): This is a crucial fixture for Celta, who has obviously fallen off the pace of the top seven in La Liga. But now they’re stuck firmly in the middle of the table as both Valencia and Osasuna won Saturday. So did Espanyol, who now is level with the Sky Blues for 11th place. It’s a three-match winless run for Celta, who were beaten 2-0 by Atletico Madrid last week. Prior to that though, they’d actually gone five in a row without a defeat (though three of those results were draws). Here Celta will be facing Mallorca, who is closer to the bottom of the table, down in 16th and only four points clear of safety. I like the spot for the hosts as they are getting Mallorca on a short week. It was only Wednesday that Mallorca was last on the pitch, losing 2-0 to Real Sociedad. That was the Pirates’ third consecutive defeat and I should point out that they’ve picked up only eight points on their travels this entire season. Considering that Mallorca has not remained in La Liga for B2B seasons since 2013, their chances of survival are very much questionable. After this, they have a tough run of fixtures. But Celta won’t take it easy here as they are looking for their first win over the Pirates since 2006. It was a goalless draw in the reverse fixture played earlier this season. But I don’t think anyone would deny Celta is the superior side in this matchup and I expect that quality to show on the pitch Sunday. Only four sides in all of La Liga have conceded fewer goals this season. 9* Celta Vigo |
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03-06-22 | Arsenal -175 v. Watford | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
7* Arsenal (9:00 AM ET): The Gunners’ path into the top four of the Premier League seems quite clear. West Ham lost Saturday (1-0 to Liverpool) and Manchester United (currently fourth) is a big underdog to Manchester City later in the day. Therefore, a win here could have Arsenal top four by the end of Sunday. Sure, they have three matches in hand compared to West Ham and Man U, but why wait? The Gunners are facing a weak Watford side and should have little difficulty taking all three points in this one. Now, given the favor Watford did for Arsenal last week, the Gunners won’t be taking this fixture lightly. The Hornets managed to hold Man U to a 0-0 draw, which kept Arsenal just two points back of the Red Devils. On the Watford side, they remain entrenched in the relegation zone, four points clear of safety. Defensively, Watford has been a bit feisty under Roy Hodgson, but they lack scoring punch, having scored just two goals in the six matches since the managerial change. They have also been inept here on home soil, picking up only seven points (out of a possible 39!), worst in the entire Premier League. Arsenal won for us last week, getting two goals in the last 14 minutes to stun the Wolves. The difference was an “own goal” in stoppage time. That was Arsenal’s third straight win and seventh in the last nine league fixtures. They’ve conceded just five times in those nine matches and kept five clean sheets. The visitors are clearly the superior side in this one. Time to move into the top four. 7* Arsenal |
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03-05-22 | Brentford v. Norwich City | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show |
10* Brentford (10:00 AM ET) - Playing this one a little “safe” in that I’m taking Brentford as a “Draw No Bet” wager, which means a draw is a push instead of a loss in this scenario (different from playing the 3-way line). Make no mistake about it though, I expect Brentford to win here and get the full three points. The Bees are arguably the most underperforming side in the Premier League as they are actually 9th in xPts and have a xGD of just -3.69. The fact this newly promoted side is actually 15th in the table with a -17 GD is terribly unfortunate. I think, at this price, we are getting them in the ultimate “buy low” spot. Norwich City, who was also promoted to the top flight before the start of this campaign, is easily the worst team in the Premier League. They have a -40 GD and are at the foot of the table (i.e. in last place), looking like a lock to be relegated down to the Championship for next season. The misery continued midweek as the Canaries fell 2-1 to Liverpool in the fifth round of the FA Cup, thus eliminating them from that particular competition. It’s now four straight losses across all competitions for Norwich, who we just successfully faded last Friday against Southampton. They’ve been outscored 11-2 during the skid. Brentford is actually on an even worse run right now, having come up winless nine straight times. They’ve shipped multiple goals eight times during that stretch, but shouldn’t be overly concerned about conceding here as Norwich has scored only nine goals on home soil all season (fewest in EPL). This is a revenge spot for the Bees as they lost the reverse fixture 2-1 back in November. Brentford won both the xG and possession battle in that first meeting; I simply cannot see them being swept by the basement side. Unlike the other two promoted sides (Watford, Norwich), I can’t see Brentford falling into the relegation zone, so this is a critical three points they need to pick up. I believe they will. 10* Brentford (Draw = No Bet) |
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03-05-22 | Villarreal +110 v. Osasuna | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 51 m | Show |
10* Villarreal (8:00 AM ET): I have to say that I am somewhat shocked to see red hot Villarreal at ‘plus money’ against Osasuna this week. The Yellow Submarine are unbeaten in their last five La Liga matches, winning four times and keeping three clean sheets. Still, they are only seventh in the table (after Real Sociedad won midweek), which seems undeserved given they have the second best goal differential in the league. I feel that Villarreal is very much a top four side in La Liga and with the second leg of the Champions League (vs. Juventus) still two weeks away, they should handle their business on Saturday. Osasuna currently sits 11th in La Liga, just four places below Villarreal, but that’s highly misleading as they have a -6 YTD GD and are 10 points back. Really, having more than cleared themselves from the relegation zone, Osasuna can be nothing more than a mid-table side at this point. Two teams below them actually have better YTD goal differentials. Having failed to score in three of its last four fixtures, this is a bad matchup for Osasuna against a side with the three recent clean sheets of its own. Osasuna’s 25 goals scored this season are fourth fewest in all of La Liga. It’s quite shocking that in each of Osasuna’s last eight fixtures, there has never been a time where both sides have scored. Clearly, if one side is to get on the scoresheet here, it is Villarreal, who have outscored the opposition 29-8 over the L10 La Liga matches. The only teams to hold them scoreless in that run are table leaders Real Madrid and (surprisingly) Elche. Adding “fuel to the fire” here is the fact Villarreal has revenge from a 2-1 loss in the reverse fixture back in October. The better side won’t lose twice. Be on the lookout for 19-year old Yeremi Pino, who had four goals LW against Espanyol, including a first half hat trick. 10* Villarreal |
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02-27-22 | RB Leipzig -138 v. VfL Bochum | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 18 h 33 m | Show |
10* RB Leipzig (9:30 AM ET): The pressure is now REALLY on Leipzig to get the full three points Sunday after both Hoffenheim and Freiburg won Saturday. Those two sides being victorious kept them level, but also moved them both past Leipzig in the table. Third place Leverkusen also won yesterday and is now seven points clear of Leipzig. But Leipzig has a better goal differential than Hoffenheim and Freiburg and I fully expect them to win here and eventually move up into the Champions League place. I had Leipzig last week when they ran past Hertha Berlin 6-1 for their most convincing win of this Bundesliga season. Tied 1-1, that match took a dramatic turn when Hertha went down to 10 men because of a red card in the 62nd minute. From there, Leipzig exploded, scoring five times in the next 25 minutes with the man advantage. Since the start of the New Year, Leipzig has scored 26 goals in just nine matches. They were also victorious in Europa League action, 3-1 over Real Sociedad, on Thursday. The road woes seem to be a thing of the past as Leipzig has been beaten just one time (by Bayern Munich) in 2022. As for VfL Bochum, who was promoted before the start of this season, they have to simply be pleased by the fact they are currently 10 points clear of the automatic drop zone. Surprisingly, they are unbeaten over the L5 competitions, including a shock win over Bayern two weeks ago. Three of their last five results have been draws though, including LW against relegation-threatened Stuttgart. I just can’t see Bochum escaping the bottom half of the table and they are drastically outclassed in this fixture. It was 3-0 when these sides met in the reverse fixture back in October with Leipzig dominating. 10* RB Leipzig |
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02-27-22 | RCD Espanyol v. Villarreal -196 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
10* Villarreal (8:00 AM ET); I think Villarreal has a legit claim to being a top four side in La Liga. Unfortunately for the Yellow Submarine, a slow start to the campaign still has them lagging behind in sixth with 39 points. But they have a better YTD goal differential (+18) than all but the top two in the table (Real Madrid, Sevilla) and are just one win away from potentially going level for fourth place (Barca, Atletico results pending). Either Sevilla or Betis (2nd and 3rd) will pick up points this week when they meet in Sunday’s derby. So Villarreal getting the full three Sunday is imperative. They are set to face Espanyol, who is stuck in the middle of the table. Newly promoted to the Primera Division before this season, Espanyol is eight points clear of the drop zone, which honestly is admirable at this point. They played to draws with Sevilla and Barcelona the last two weeks, but are also winless since December. For a variety of reasons, it’s tough for me to see the White & Blues picking up any points in this fixture. Villarreal had to settle for a 1-1 draw with Juve in the Champions League midweek, but here on the domestic front they’ve been dominant, losing only once since Dec 12th with seven wins and five clean sheets. The Yellow Submarine were runaway 4-1 winners last week over Granada and are now second in xG in all of La Liga.. Also, only three sides have conceded fewer goals this season. Getting this one on home soil should result in another easy victory and a move up the table. 10* Villarreal |
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02-26-22 | Juventus -145 v. Empoli | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
10* Juventus (12:00 ET): Neither of these Serie A sides have won in any of their last three respective competitions. But the similarities between fourth place Juventus and 13th place Empoli. Juventus has not lost in their last 12 league matches and also is unbeaten inside of 90 minutes going all the way back to November (last loss was to Inter in the Supercoppa). As for Empoli, they have really hit the skids, last winning a match all the way back in December. Look for current form to hold here and Juve to pick up all three points. This is also a revenge situation for Juve, who was stunned 1-0 by Empoli in Turin earlier this season. That was also back when “The Old Lady” was struggling. Yet they looked like the better side that day in August, generating more scoring chances and winning the possession battle. They figure to score here in the reverse - probably - multiple times - as Empoli has now conceded 50 goals this season, second most in all of Serie A. They’ve conceded at a rate of 2.3 goals per match during their winless run and 34 of the 50 goals conceded this season have come here at home. I’ve been forecasting an Empoli downfall for some time now as they are 16th in the league in xPts and have an inferior GD compared to the two sides (Sampdoria, Udinese) directly below them in the table. As for Juve, they are trying to hold on to that last Champions League spot, only three points ahead of fifth place Atalanta. The 1-1 draw against Villarreal in the Champions League was more impressive than it reads and they will not want to let these three precious points slip away. 10* Juventus |
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02-25-22 | Norwich City v. Southampton -180 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
7* Southampton (3:00 ET): While I don’t see Southampton as anything more than a mid-table side in the Premier League, they’ve been in good form of late and are matched up with the bottom side, Norwich City, on Friday. This should lead to an easy three points for the home side. The Saints have lost just once in their last 11 competitions overall and only one time at home all season. Seven draws here at home have hurt them a bit, but look for them to get the full three here in a favorable Friday fixture. Norwich City had moved out of the Premier League basement by picking up seven points from three matches, including wins over Everton and Watford. But after back to back losses where they conceded seven goals (to Manchester City and Liverpool), the Canaries are back at the foot of the table with just 17 points on the season. Not to sound overly harsh, but that is where they belong given their extremely poor -36 GD, easily the worst in the EPL this season. They are also dead last in the league in xPts. Not since 2012-14 has Norwich been able to remain in the English top flight back to back years. So history is not on their side when it comes to relegation. Right now, I’d say the Canaries are the most likely EPL team to be relegated back to the Championship for next season. It’s been pretty ugly on their travels as they’ve been outscored by 21 goals in 12 matches and have the lowest xPts on the road in the league. Southampton can move past Brighton into ninth place with a win here and I think they’ll do just that. 7* Southampton |
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02-24-22 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v. Arsenal -155 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 28 h 59 m | Show |
10* Arsenal (2:45 ET): This is a crucial top seven clash in the Premier League with both sides fancying themselves as having a shot to finish fourth. Right now, I give Arsenal the better shot as the Gunners have THREE matches in hand compared to Manchester United, who is currently fourth and just four points ahead. If Arsenal can simply pick up points in these matches they have left to make up, then I’d say they have an excellent shot at being back in the Champions League for the first time in six years. Wolverhampton is two points back of Arsenal and six adrift of Man U. The Wolves are coming off B2B wins, 2-0 over Tottenham and 2-1 over Leicester, but lost to Arsenal at Molineux earlier in the month. What was interesting about that clash is that Arsenal was down to 10 men for the final 20+ minutes and still held on for a 1-0 victory. Also, I thought the Wolves were a bit fortunate to defeat Leicester on Sunday as they lost both the possession and xG (expected goal) battle. Arsenal has also now won two straight after defeating Brentford 2-1 on Saturday. They were definitely the better side there, only conceding in stoppage time after dominating in shots 24-6. In terms of xPts (expected points) this season, there is a larger gap between these two sides than the current table seems to suggest. The bottom line is I simply think Arsenal is significantly better. The Wolves have been a little fortunate to concede only 18 goals this season as their xGA is 30.62. The gap between actual and expected goals allowed is the largest in the Premier League. 10* Arsenal |
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02-23-22 | Ajax Amsterdam -120 v. Benfica | Top | 2-2 | Loss | -120 | 54 h 54 m | Show |
10* Ajax Amsterdam (3:00 ET): One of three sides not to drop a single point in the Group stage (Liverpool and Bayern Munich were the others), Ajax Amsterdam comes into the knockout round with the best odds of anyone not hailing from one of Europe’s “Big 5” leagues. They went a perfect 6-0 in Group C, sweeping Sporting CP, Borussia Dortmund and Besiktas by an aggregate score of 20-5. That was the best GD of anyone in the draw, save for Bayern. On the domestic front, Ajax has continued to dominate the Eredivisie with a league-best 57 points and easily the best GD (+65). Benfica was not expected to make it out of Group E, but the Portugese side were the ones to take advantage of Barcelona underperforming and they nabbed second place. This despite a -2 goal differential in the six matches. It was head to head that allowed them to progress to the knockout stage where they are underdogs in this first leg, despite having home field advantage. Ajax are worthy favorites in this tie and quite frankly I am surprised they are not a larger favorite. This is a side that scored more goals in the Group stage than everyone with the exception of Bayern. Before this weekend’s 1-0 win over Willem II, Ajax had scored multiple goals in seven straight league games. That’s going to be a problem for a Benfica side who generated only seven goals in the group stage and was dominated twice by Bayern, getting outscored 9-2. Ajax plays a similar style to Bayern and has also won 10 straight, conceding just one goal in the process. Benfica is only third in their own league and greatly overmatched here. 10* Ajax Amsterdam |
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02-23-22 | Crystal Palace +141 v. Watford | Top | 4-1 | Win | 141 | 27 h 5 m | Show |
9* Crystal Palace (2:30 ET): I believe this is an excellent opportunity to fire on Crystal Palace, despite their recent form. The Eagles have not won in the Premier League since a 3-0 victory over Norwich City back on December 28th. The six-match winless run has them down in 13th in the table, however they still remain an impressive 7th in xPts among all EPL sides, which is well ahead of Wednesday’s opponent, relegation threatened Watford. Having underachieved so drastically, expect CP to pick up the full three points in this one as they are long overdue for the elusive victory. On Saturday, it appeared as if the Eagles were headed for a third consecutive draw as they and Chelsea were both scoreless with only stoppage time on the horizon. But a goal in the 89th minute sent CP to a crushing defeat against one of the top three Premier League sides. Here, it’s an obvious drop in class as Watford is still 18th in the table (in the relegation zone) even after a 1-0 win over Aston Villa on Saturday. That was the Hornets’ first EPL win since November and they remain in a lot of trouble considering 19th place Burnley is just one point behind with two matches in hand. As of right now, I do project that Watford will be heading back to the second tier of English football next season. As for Crystal Palace, I feel that a top 10 finish is still a possibility. They’ve got a pair of bottom three sides on the horizon this week and taking max points would move them to the middle of the table. This is a revenge spot as earlier in the season, the Eagles fell 1-0 here at Vicarage Round in the EFL Cup. But consider Watford has the worst home record in the Premier League with just seven points from 12 matches and they’ve lost six straight times here, failing to score in each of the last three. I love the value we’re getting here, going against Watford off a rare win. 9* Crystal Palace |
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02-21-22 | Levante v. Celta de Vigo -160 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -160 | 19 h 15 m | Show |
8* Celta Vigo (3:00 ET): Facing serious threat of relegation, Levante is probably the more “desperate” side in Monday’s La Liga fixture. But I simply cannot trust the side at the foot of the table to earn points back to back times. This is a rough spot for the Frogs, who have finished 15th, 15th, 12th and 14th in their four years back in the Spanish top flight. They are off a shocking 1-0 win over Atletico Madrid on Wednesday and are now traveling on short rest, with another fixture (Elche) looming on Friday. The best Celta Vigo can probably hope for at this point is a second straight top half finish. But the Sky Blues are definitely in excellent form right now, bringing a four match unbeaten run into Monday. They have not conceded a single goal in three of those four fixtures. Now a missed late penalty cost them last week in what ended up being a goalless draw with Cadiz. But I just can’t see Celta allowing a second straight opportunity to grab max points pass them by. In the reverse back in September, they beat Levante 2-0. While Levante certainly has been a bit unfortunate in conceding a La Liga worst 50 goals this campaign, Celta has only conceded half that number and ranks top five in the league in GA. So they have a massive edge in that department. The Sky Blues have actually picked up more points on the road this season than here at home, but this is the last place team they are welcoming in on Monday. Celta has a substantial rest edge having not been on the pitch since 2/12. 8* Celta Vigo |
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02-21-22 | Spezia Calcio v. Bologna -122 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 15 m | Show |
10* Bologna (3:00 ET): Recent form certainly does not favor Bologna, who have won just one of their last nine Serie A fixtures. Since December, no team in the league has lost more times. And Bologna has failed to score in B2B matches, losing 3-0 to Lazio and playing to a goalless draw with Empoli. Going back further, they have found the back of the net just twice in the last five matches. But never before in club history have Monday’s hosts gone three straight league fixtures without a goal. I’ll call for them to end their scoreless streak on Monday and pick up the full three points. Only two points currently separate Bologna and Monday’s opponent, Spezia. But the former has the better YTD goal differential (-11 vs. -19) and the latter, in my opinion, belongs closer to the bottom of the table. Spezia is coming off a very tough 2-1 loss to Fiorentina last month, a result that I was very happy to see (I had Fiorentina). But for Spezia, giving up a late go-ahead goal (89th minute) had to be a killer after Kevin Agudelo’s equalizer in the 74th minute. That was actually Spezia’s first loss since December, but the unbeaten run up until last week has only gotten them to 14th in the table and like I said earlier, their resume is one that deserves to be closer to the drop zone (they are third lowest in the league in xPts). Spezia has scored in eight straight matches, a first, so don’t be surprised if that ends at the same time Bologna’s scoreless run ends. They’ve also got some injuries and suspension to deal with in the Starting XI. 10* Bologna |
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02-20-22 | RB Leipzig -165 v. Hertha Berlin | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
7* RB Leipzig (1:30 ET): There is now a tremendous amount of pressure on Leipzig to stay hot and pick up the full three points here, following Saturday’s results in the Bundesliga. Hoffenheim, Freiburg and Cologne all won yesterday, moving themselves ahead of Leipzig in the race for the top four here in the German top flight. Mainz won on Friday, so they are level as well. But Leipzig is ahead of all of these sides in GD and xPts, in theory establishing them as the choice to get into the top four by season’s end. I expect them to handle one of the worst teams in the league on Sunday. Aside from an expected 3-2 loss to Bayern Munich two weeks ago, Leipzig has looked very good in 2022 on the domestic front. They’ve taken max points from the four fixtures besides Bayern, outscoring their opponents 11-2. I know that it’s been a struggle winning matches on the road this season for Leipzig, whose lone win on their travels was the 2-0 win over Stuttgart last month. But they are clearly the stronger side today. Hertha Berlin had 26 shots last week against Greuther Furth, but only seven were on target and they lost 2-1 to the last place side in the table. Looking at the bottom of the table and the race to stay above the relegation zone, I think Hertha could be in major trouble as they have the second worst GD in the Bundesliga (-21) and are currently just one point above the relegation playoff. They’ve conceded the second most goals this season and are winless across their last six competitions. 7* RB Leipzig |
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02-20-22 | Barcelona FC +103 v. Valencia | Top | 4-1 | Win | 103 | 3 h 54 m | Show |
10* Barcelona (10:15 AM ET): So the race for the top four in La Liga was definitely heated up by the results on Saturday. Both Villarreal and Atletico Madrid won, so there are now five sides separated by just five points in the race for the Champions/Europa League spots. Barcelona was jumped by both Villarreal and Atletico, but has a chance here to reclaim a top four spot, if it can defeat Valencia. Given that Valencia has not won a La Liga match since 12/20 and picked up just two points from its last six matches, I like Barca’s chances of getting the full three on Sunday. Now it did take a last gasp equalizer (in the 96th minute) for Barca to share the points with Espanyol last time out. They also played to a 1-1 draw with Napoli in the first leg of Europa League action midweek. But I’m a believer that this team is heading for a top four finish. They are 4th in the league in xPts and unbeaten in their last eight matches (across all competitions), a run that goes all the way back to 12/12. During that time, Barca has won the xG battle in all but two fixtures. Meanwhile, Valencia has a -6.2 xG difference during its winless run. Last week saw them lose 2-1 to Alaves, who is second from the bottom in the table. Right now, the Bats’ main focus is likely on the Copa del Rey, where they are in the semifinals. Meanwhile, yesterday’s results definitely put added pressure on Barcelona to win here. I think they get the job done, just as they did in the reverse fixture, which they won 3-1 at Camp Nou. 10* Barcelona |
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02-19-22 | Everton +0.5 v. Southampton | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -121 | 19 h 33 m | Show |
10* Everton +0.5 (10:00 AM ET): I’m taking Everton to get at least a point on Saturday. To be clear, with this bet, a draw is a win and so too (obviously) is an outright win. This is a huge fixture for the Toffees, who can move further away from the relegation zone in the Premier League. Currently, they are in 16th place with 22 points, which is only five clear for safety. They picked up a much needed 3-0 win over Leeds last week, their second victory in the last three fixtures. I see them building off that here. Southampton is certainly in the midst of a surge. The Saints have picked up points in three consecutive matches, despite facing the likes of Manchester City, Tottenham and Manchester United. They drew with the two teams from Manchester and won away 3-2 at Tottenham. But I feel now is as good a time as any to sell high on the team from St. Mary’s. I just don’t see them being able to crack into the top half of the table and their -7 YTD goal differential isn’t all that much better than Everton’s -10. Moreover, Southampton may have seven more points than Everton, but that’s partly due to having played two more times. In the reverse, way back in August, the Toffees prevailed 3-1. They very much dominated that day and were deserved winners. Following the January transfer window, this side has some needed reinforcements and is finally healthy again. Southampton, who has drawn seven times in 11 home matches (most in EPL), isn’t 100 percent healthy coming into Saturday. The Saints were lucky to share the points last week with Man U. The three sides below them in the table all have better GD. 10* Everton +0.5 |
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02-19-22 | Hoffenheim v. VfL Wolfsburg | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 3 m | Show |
10* Wolfsburg (9:30 AM ET): I’m taking Wolfsburg on the goal line, which means a draw is a no bet. Die Wolf has seemingly turned things around the L2 weeks, following a dreadful run of form that saw them go winless for 11 consecutive matches, including nine defeats. That had them dangerously close to the relegation zone, but now they’re back up to a more respectable 12th position in the table and only seven points off the top four (which is where they finished last season). A third straight win here would be gigantic. Now Hoffenheim is currently one of the four sides tied for fourth place in the Bundesliga with 34 points. I greatly prefer Leipzig in the race for the final Champions League spot, so don’t expect Die Kraichgauer to move past them. Like Wolfsburg, it had been a poor run of form recently with three consecutive losses for Hoffenheim before last week’s 2-0 win over Arminia Bielefeld. I find it very difficult to believe they can do any better than sharing the points here, given the poor defense that preceded last week’s victory. Last week was the first “clean sheet” for Hoffenheim since 11/20 vs. Leipzig. After opening 2022 with a 3-1 win over Augsburg (a bottom of the table side), Hoffenheim conceded at least two goals in four straight fixtures, all against teams in the top half of the table. So I expect Wolfsburg to get a goal or two here, continuing the offensive resurgence that has seen them find the back of the next six times over the L2 matches. Also, Die Wolf has revenge for a 3-1 loss in the reverse back in September. Again, no worse than a draw here for the home team. I like those odds. 10* Wolfsburg |
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02-18-22 | Torino v. Juventus UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 46 m | Show |
8* Under Torino/Juventus (2:45 ET): Juve got a last-gasp equalizer on Sunday against Atalanta, thus keeping alive their unbeaten streak, which has now reached 11 across all competitions. Last week’s 1-1 draw also kept “The Old Lady” fourth in the Serie A table with a seven-point gap between them and the top three. Holding on to the last Champions League spot is going to be tough as you’ve got a number of other sides within striking distance. Friday’s fixture with 10th place Torino will not be easy. While Juve is in excellent form right now, Torino is coming off a series of unfortunate results as they’ve managed only one point from their last three fixtures. That was from a 1-1 draw with mid-table Sassuolo and since then there have been B2B defeats, 2-0 to Udinese and 2-1 to Venezia, the latter being quite disappointing. The Turin Derby has not been a favorable fixture for Torino in recent years as they last beat Juventus in April of ‘15. Away form hasn’t been good for Torino this year either; they’ve picked up just nine points (third fewest in Serie A) plus their last win here at Allianz Stadium was in the 1994-95 season. History is not on the side of the underdog, but I don’t like the spot for the favorite either as Juve may be looking ahead to next week’s Champions League tie with Villarreal. So the play here is going to be on the Under. Juve has conceded below 1.0 xGA in 11 of its last 12 Serie A matches and has conceded the third fewest number of goals in the league this season. Torino is no defensive slouch either as it has conceded the fourth fewest goals. When these sides met earlier in the season, it was a 1-0 match (won by Juve). 8* Under Torino/Juventus |
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02-16-22 | Bayern Munich v. Salzburg OVER 2.75 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
10* Over Bayern Munich/RB Salzburg (3:00 ET): I expect plenty of goals to be scored in this first leg of the UEFA Champions League Round of 16 matchup. These two sides met twice in last year’s Champions League, albeit in the Group Stage, with Bayern winning 6-2 and 3-1. Both matches featured over 30 shots and 4.6 expected goals. I’m not saying to expect another eight goals like when they last faced off here in Austria, but expect at least half that number on Wednesday. Bayern Munich’s offensive prowess needs little introduction at this point. The 2019 UCL winners currently lead the Bundesliga (as per usual) and have scored a whopping 70 goals in their 22 matches on the domestic front. In this year’s Group Stage of the UCL, Bayern scored 22 goals in sweeping all six matches. Seven of their last eight matches across all competitions have seen at least four total goals scored. You should obviously expect the favorites to find the scoresheet multiple times here. But also expect Bayern to concede AT LEAST a goal in this first leg. I’ve already mentioned that they conceded three times to Salzburg in the two matches last year. Well, they’ve also conceded in four of their last five matches coming into Wednesday and most of those fixtures were against teams in the bottom half of the Bundesliga. Bayern just conceded FOUR times in a shock loss to Bochum last weekend. This version of Salzburg is much improved from the one that faced Bayern last season and will definitely find the scoresheet. 10* Over Bayern Munich/RB Salzburg |
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02-14-22 | Fiorentina -107 v. Spezia Calcio | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
8* Fiorentina (2:45 ET): This seems like a logical time to fade Spezia. The hosts are on their longest run without a defeat - EVER - in Serie A. They’ve won three and drawn once over the last four fixtures, but it hasn’t meant much as they still sit 15th in the table. Their -18 YTD GD is still fifth worst in the league. Three of the last four results have come against bottom five sides and last week’s 2-2 draw against last place Salernitana had to be considered a disappointment. The club’s most impressive win during the unbeaten stretch, 2-1 over AC Milan, came via a shocking stoppage time goal. Fiorentina sits eighth in the table with 36 points, well ahead of Spezia. Now 10 points back of the top four, it’s unlikely that the Viola will make a run at the top four, but the two Europa League spots are still a possibility. Losing top goal scorer Dusan Vlahvoic via transfer to Juventus was a blow, but look for Krzysztof Piatek to pick up the slack. In the midweek win over Atalanta in the Coppa Italia Quarterfinals, the Polish striker connected twice. Looking at the two sides’ season-long results, I just think we’re getting some good value on the visitors. Something that’s rather interesting here is that Fiorentina has conceded the fewest number of shots this season in Serie A while Spezia has conceded the most. Fiorentina has never lost to Spezia, who was promoted before the start of last season, and won the reverse 3-0 back in October. It may not be that easy here, but look for a win and the full three points. 8* Fiorentina |
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02-12-22 | Stuttgart v. Bayer Leverkusen UNDER 3.25 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -111 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
10* Under Stuttgart/Leverkusen (12:30 PM ET): I would like to start by “formally apologizing” for last week’s 10* Total of the Year play here in the Bundesliga. It was a true “comedy of errors.” The proceedings began with both sides (Dortmund and Leverkusen) benefitting from an “own goal” in the first 16 minutes. That is ridiculous. From there, I knew I was done for, but what must be pointed out about the match ending up 5-2 (for Leverkusen) is that there were only a combined 3.41 xG! Leverkusen’s actual goal total this Bundesliga season (54) exceeds their xG total by almost 14! Among Europe’s “Big 5” leagues, only Serie A’s Lazio has overachieved more from a goal scoring perspective. Considering this, and what happened last week, there HAS to be some inevitable offensive regression from this side. They’ve scored 10 goals in just the last two matches. That pace simply cannot be maintained, especially by a side that’s already overachieving its xG total by so much. No “clean sheets” in the last 11 games is also something to consider for Leverkusen. But I won’t be surprised if that streak comes to an end this week as they face Stuttgart, who currently sits in the relegation zone, ahead of only Greuther Furth. Stuttgart had not scored in five straight fixtures before losing 3-2 to Eintracht Frankfurt last week. What was crazy about that last result is that Stuttgart had an xGA (expected goals allowed) of just 0.84 in that match. It may seem “dicey,” but I truly believe we’re heading for an Under here. 10* Under Stuttgart/Leverkusen |
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02-12-22 | Bologna v. Lazio UNDER 2.75 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -54.5 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
10* Under Bologna/Lazio (9:00 AM ET): I thought I had it last week, taking the Under on Lazio. It was 0-0 at the half against Fiorentina, who were playing for the first time since its leading scorer Dusan Vlahovic transferred to Juventus. Lazio, as mentioned in the analysis, has exceeded its xG total more than not just every side in Serie A, but every side in any of Europe’s “Big 5” leagues. But in the second half, disaster struck as Lazio struck for three goals, just barely sending the match Over the total. The real “kicker” was that the third goal was an OG (own goal) from Fiorentina. But I’m sticking to “my guns” here. Lazio has now incredibly exceeded its xG total by almost 15 in league play. That’s absurd. However, a four match unbeaten run ended midweek with a 4-0 loss in the Coppa Italia semis to AC Milan. Certainly, conceding four times there was a sharp departure from what Lazio had done previously as they were coming off four consecutive “clean sheets.” But perhaps most costly of all was that top scorer Ciro Immobile limped off the pitch Wednesday and may be forced to miss this fixture. Having not conceded a single goal in its last three Serie A matches, Lazio should do fine here on the back end against sputtering Bologna, who is down to 13th place after winning just once in its last eight tries. It was a 0-0 draw vs. Empoli LW for Bologna. That was the sixth time in the previous seven fixtures that they were held to one goal or less. Throw in Lazio’s inevitable offensive regression and you’ve got to like the Under here. 10* Under Bologna/Lazio |
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02-11-22 | FC Koln v. RB Leipzig -221 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 20 m | Show |
6* RB Leipzig (2:30 ET): I don’t think that I’m alone in stating Bayern Munich is once again the class of the Bundesliga. Dortmund should also finish top four. You’ve also got to think that after thrashing Dortmund last week, Leverkusen is Champions League bound next season as well. So that leaves one spot in the top four and I firmly believe that is going to RB Leipzig. Despite losing 3-2 to Bayern last weekend, Leipzig still has the fourth best GD (+14) and is second in xPts. Still seventh in the table, however, now is the time they need to make their move. For Leipzig, this week brings a fixture with the side directly ahead of them in the table, sixth place FC Cologne. Despite being one point ahead of Leipzig, Cologne has a far worse goal differential (-1) and is probably a bit lucky to be this high. Cologne were 1-0 winners last week against Freiburg, snapping a three-match winless run that included them being eliminated from the DFB Pokal by second tier side Hamburg and a 4-0 thrashing at the hands of Bayern. They could also only manage a 2-2 draw with Bochum. I thought Leipzig fought valiantly last week against the German top flight’s top team, twice equalizing, only to then fall one short. Let’s be honest; the loss was expected. But prior to that, Leipzig had looked rather impressive, rattling off four consecutive victories (across all competitions) and three clean sheets. A win here would put them level with fourth place Union Berlin (at least temporarily). This is a huge match for Leipzig, who is the better side. Expect them to grab the full three points. 6* RB Leipzig |
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02-10-22 | Arsenal +127 v. Wolverhampton Wanderers | Top | 1-0 | Win | 127 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
8* Arsenal (2:45 ET): With Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea all but assured of Champions League qualification for next season, this year’s Premier League discussion is now centered around “who will finish fourth?” Two of the main candidates do battle here with Wolverhampton welcoming in Arsenal. The Wolves have been hotter of late, but the Gunners still maintain a two-point edge in the table as they six in sixth place with the Wolves are eighth. Of course, that advantage could completely go away depending on the result here. While the Wolves have been the hotter side of late, I do think their FA Cup loss to Norwich City last Saturday puts them at a slight disadvantage here. Arsenal hasn’t been on the pitch since a goalless draw with Burnley all the way back on January 23rd. Goal scoring has certainly been a problem for the Gunners of late. A winless January saw them held scoreless in their last four across all competitions. It is important to note that only two of the five fixtures were in the Premier League last month. Having been eliminated from both “Cups” (FA, Carabao), all Arsenal has to play for now is the top four and I’m expecting a motivated effort on Thursday. Now, having not scored in four straight competitions seems dubious when getting ready to face a Wolverhampton side that has conceded the second fewest number of goals in the Premier League this season. But, xGA says that the Wolves have been rather fortunate in that department as they “should have” conceded nearly 11 more times than they actually have. Throw in the fact that they are also the EPL’s third lowest scoring side (ahead of only Burnley and Norwich City!) and I think the hosts are a bit lucky to be in eighth position entering this match. Look for the visitors to come in and “steal” all three points here. 8* Arsenal |
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02-09-22 | Crystal Palace +121 v. Norwich City | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 41 h 35 m | Show |
10* Crystal Palace (2:45 ET): Having progressed to the fifth round of the FA Cup, Crystal Palace must now turn its attention to ending a three-match winless run in the Premier League. There were two losses and a draw for the Eagles in the English top flight last month. The losses were to Liverpool and West Ham, two top five sides, while the draw was against equally pesky Brighton & Hove Albion. Palace might only be sitting 13th in the table currently, but they are actually seventh in xPts (expected points), ahead of such heavyweights like Manchester United. They are an underrated side in the EPL. Norwich City was also a winner in the FA Cup last week, surprising Wolverhampton 1-0. Even more surprising is that this side has won its last three matches across all competitions. The Canaries are, in my view, still the worst team in the Premier League. They have a -32 GD and seemed destined for relegation not even a month ago. Wins over Everton and Watford have allowed Norwich to climb out of the drop zone, into 17th with 16 points. But they have not rattled off three consecutive EPL wins since 2012 and this shapes up to be a very favorable fixture for Palace. Even in the 3-0 win over Watford, Norwich lost the xG battle, so that could fairly be termed a “lucky win.” They also lost the possession battle (65% to 35%) in the FA Cup win over the Wolves. Crystal Palace is pretty sound defensively, while Norwich is still the lowest scoring EPL side and has created more than one xG just once in its last seven matches. In the reverse fixture back in December, Palace raced out to a dominant 3-0 win. They should be getting Wilfried Zaha back in the starting XI now that the Africa Cup of Nations is over. I like the value. 10* Crystal Palace |
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02-07-22 | RCD Espanyol v. Ath Bilbao -164 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 29 h 35 m | Show |
9* Athletic Bilbao (3:00 ET): Athletic Club will try to continue to separate itself from the middle of the La Liga table. They’ve won four straight - across all competitions - including 1-0 over Real Madrid in Thursday’s quarterfinal of the Copa del Rey. But here in league play, Bilbao still sits only eighth with 31 points from 22 matches. A win Monday won’t move them up any, but it would bring them within four points of the top four as the race for the last two Champions League spots became a lot more interesting after this weekend. I’d say Athletic Club’s biggest issue this campaign has been poor luck when it comes to scoring goals. They’ve scored only 21 times, tied for fifth fewest in all of La Liga and the fewest of any side in the top half. But they are 31.65 in xG (expected goals), which is sixth most in the league! That gap between actual and xG is the biggest underachievement in any of Europe’s “Big 4” leagues. But on the bright side, they’ve conceded only 17 times, second fewest in the league and have kept B2B clean sheets. The opponent for matchweek 23 is Espanyol, who was promoted to the Spanish top flight this season and has done a reasonable job thus far of staying clear of the relegation zone (nine points clear). This will be their first time on the pitch since Jan 21, so they could be a bit rusty. Espanyol has gone three in a row w/o a victory and last picked up a win in late December. Leading goal scorer Raul de Tomas is going to have to sit this one out due to suspension, a significant blow. 9* Athletic Bilbao |
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02-06-22 | SpVgg Greuther Furth v. VfL Wolfsburg -165 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 45 h 38 m | Show |
8* Wolfsburg (11:30 ET): If not here for Wolfsburg, then you’ve got to wonder “when?” Die Wolf, after finishing top four last season and thus qualifying for the Champions League, opened the 2021-22 Bundesliga campaign with four consecutive victories. But the bottom has since dropped out. They’ve won just twice in the previous 16 matches, losing 11. Not only have they failed to score a goal in six of their last seven league games - including each of the last four - but this season’s two top goal scorers are both unavailable. One left via the transfer window, the other sustained a broken ankle. But Wolfsburg’s opponent on Sunday is Greuther Furth, who still sits at the foot of the Bundesliga table despite a four-match unbeaten run. Three of those results were draws, although they did shock Mainz 2-1 their last time on the pitch. Yet, the Cloverleaves are still eight points back of 19th place Stuttgart and 11 points adrift from safety. I am unconvinced that this side is capable of making any kind of run to avoid relegation, which seemed inevitable when they picked up only one point from the first 14 matches of the campaign. With only two points separating them from the possibility of the relegation playoff, it is a must that Wolfsburg picks up all three points here. Relegation is something that was unthinkable when they started the year 4-0-0. There have been some new signings to help fill the goal scoring void with Max Kruse and Jonas Wind coming over from Union Berlin and Copenhagen, respectively. Kevin Paredas also came over from MLS. Wolfsburg defeated Furth 2-0 back in September. Look for another win here. 8* Wolfsburg |
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02-06-22 | Bayer Leverkusen v. Borussia Dortmund UNDER 3.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 39 m | Show |
10* Under Borussia Dortmund/Bayer Leverkusen (9:30 AM ET): This clash of top three sides in the Bundesliga doubles as a pairing of the two that have overachieved the most in terms of goal scoring this season. In their previous match before the Winter Break, Dortmund ran away with a 3-2 win over Hoffenheim. Now I missed with the Under there, but the big news was star Erling Haaland being taken off with an injury in the 63rd minute. After his injury, the lone goal for BVB was a gift, an “own goal” by Hoffenheim. Still nursing a groin injury, it’s looking like a near certainty that Haaland will sit here. That’s really key to playing this fixture Under the total. So is the fact that the opposition, Bayer Leverkusen, has also greatly exceeded its number of xG (expected goals). For those who are unfamiliar, xG is the probability that a shot will result in a goal based on the characteristics of that shot and the events leading up to it. It’s a very reliable metric for how many goals a team SHOULD have scored. Dortmund has 52 goals scored on the second, second most in the Bundesliga (trailing only Bayern Munich). But their xG is 39.96. Similarly, Leverkusen has exceeded its xG total (38.32) by almost 11 goals. When these teams played the reverse fixture back in September, there were seven goals scored, but only on 24 shots and one was a penalty. Haaland scored twice, including the penalty. With the star talisman not on the pitch Sunday, now is the perfect time to call for regression and play the Under. 10* Under Borussia Dortmund/Bayer Leverkusen |
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02-05-22 | Lazio v. Fiorentina UNDER 2.75 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -51 | 23 h 31 m | Show |
10* Under Lazio/Fiorentina (2:45 ET): Lots of reasons to like the Under here. For starters, Fiorentina’s leading goal scorer (Dusan Vlahovic) has moved onto Juventus via the transfer window. That is a crushing blow for the Viola’s hopes of playing European football next season. Vlahovic had scored 17 of his club’s 41 goals this season while also creating 34% of their xG. No other player on the team has generated more than 0.5 xG per 90 minutes. Bottom line: expect this side to score a lot fewer goals moving forward. No side in Serie A, or any of Europe’s “Big 5” leagues, has exceeded its xG more than Lazio. They’ve scored 46 times on 30.1 xG and that’s pretty ridiculous. Over the last seven matches alone, they’ve scored 14 goals despite an xG total of only 8.3. But signs of regression are there; last time on the pitch Lazio played to a goalless draw with Atalanta, a team whose fixtures almost always end up being high-scoring. So we’ve got every reason to believe both of these sides won’t be scoring much here. This is a critical fixture for both as they enter Saturday tied for seventh with 36 points each. I’m not convinced either of them will make their way to European football for next season. But I am convinced about the regression in goal scoring. Lazio has kept three consecutive clean sheets, holding Atalanta, Napoli and Salernitana to zero goals. It was 1-0, in Lazio’s favor, when these teams met in Rome back in October. Fiorentina isn’t bad defensively either as they are tied for 7th in GA. 10* Under Lazio/Fiorentina |
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02-04-22 | Levante v. Getafe CF UNDER 2 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 55 m | Show |
6* Under Levante/Getafe (3:00 ET): So, as I’ve said before, Levante has been incredibly unlucky when it comes to conceding goals this La Liga season. That has played a significant factor in them being at the “foot of the table” (in last place) and facing a very serious chance of relegation for next season. The Frogs have allowed a league-high 43 goals this season. However, their number of xGA (expected goals allowed) is just 31.83. Per Understat, no side in any of Europe’s “Big 4” leagues has exceeded its xGA by a wider margin. Their last time out, I went with the Under on Levante and cashed that bet. They lost 2-0 to Cadiz. Now let’s point out how Levante has also scored the fifth fewest number of goals in La Liga this campaign. Losing to Cadiz was a real killer for their survival hopes as the Frogs now sit nine points adrift from where they need to be. This is another seemingly winnable fixture, but Getafe will also be keen on getting the full three (points) here, which would move them seven points clear of the relegation zone. Fortunate for Levante is the fact Getafe is one of the four La Liga sides to have scored a fewer number of goals this season. The Deep Blue Ones have just 17 goals in their 22 league matches. Only Alaves has scored a lower number. With two of the bottom five scoring sides in the league facing off and Levante likely to start conceding less, Under is an easy call again here. Four of Getafe’s last five fixtures have ended up with one or zero goals scored. That includes a 0-0 draw with Real Sociedad before the Winter Break. 6* Levante/Getafe |