#287 ASA PLAY ON Ohio State -8 over Notre Dame, Monday at 7:30 PM ET - We’ll go to the well one more time and play against the Irish here. In their quarterfinal game vs UGA the Irish were outplayed across the board but benefitted from 2 key Georgia turnovers (one led to a short ND TD drive and one took points away from the Bulldogs) and a 98 yard kickoff return. Last week vs PSU, the Irish got down 10-0 but were able to rally and score 10 points in the final 5:00 minutes to pull out a 3 point win. What caught our eye in that game was the PSU ran for over 200 yards and limited ND to just 116 yards and the Nittany Lions held a +2.1 yards per carry differential. They definitely won in the trenches which would normally get you a win. That’ will be the case here as well although it might be even more drastic. OSU’s defense ranks #1 nationally in total defense, YPP allowed, and passing yards allowed while ranking #2 in yards per carry allowed. In their first 3 playoff games, they held Tennessee to 152 yards rushing (the Vols average 226), they held Oregon to negative 23 yards rushing (OU averages 158), and then shut down Texas to 58 yards rushing (Horns average 159). If ND struggles to run here, we think they are in trouble. They are not a great passing team (92nd in passing YPG) and OSU, as we mentioned, has the #1 pass defense in the country. The Buckeyes have had the tougher road to get here facing Tennessee, Oregon, and Texas while Notre Dame has taken on Indiana, UGA, and Penn State. Ohio State has outscored their 3 opponents by +59 points (closest win was by 14 vs Texas) and outgained those opponents by +470 total yards. ND has outscored their 3 opponents by +26 points and outgained those opponents by just +129 total yards. Ohio State has played the tougher schedule yet they are still better in all of the key stats including YPP margin, YPG margin, YPC margin, and yards per pass attempt margin. The Buckeyes have been simply dominant in their playoff run while Notre Dame, despite winning 3 straight, has not. The favorite has covered 5 straight National Championship games, and we make it 6 on Monday with OSU winning by double digits.

#284 ASA PLAY ON Penn State +2.5 over Notre Dame, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - We were on Georgia over Notre Dame last week and felt we were on the right side of that game and still do. Georgia outgained the Irish 300 to 244 and 4.9 YPP to 4.0 YPP. The Irish had zero passing game in that win (90 yards passing) and benefitted from a 98 yard kickoff return and 2 UGA turnovers. Not only did the Bulldogs have 2 turnovers (0 for Notre Dame) but they were very influential giveaways. One was inside the ND 15 yard line as UGA was driving for a TD or FG and the other was inside their own 15 very late in the first half which led to ND’s only offensive TD of the game on a 13 yard drive. Spanning the 1st and early 2nd half, the Irish scored 17 of their 23 points in a 54 second span with a FG, quick turnover by UGA into a short TD, and a kickoff return. This team did very little offensively and now they face a PSU defense that is every bit as good as Georgia’s defense. The Irish rely very heavily on the run but they are facing a PSU defense that is in the top 10 in both rushing YPG and YPC allowed. The Nittany Lions have allowed 166 yards in 2 playoff games (vs SMU and Boise) on just 2.1 YPC. Last week vs what most consider to be the best RB in college FB, they held Boise’s Ashton Jeanty to 3.5 YPC. We think Notre Dame struggles again offensively, especially with their #1 offensive threat, RB Love, banged up (only 6 carries for 19 yards last week). The Irish defense played well last week vs the run, back up UGA QB Stockton was successful with 234 yards passing. The Irish sold out against the run last week and may again this week and we trust PSU QB Allar to have a big game as well. While the defenses in this game are both high level, PSU’s offense is much more balanced with 203 YPG rushing and 234 YPG passing giving them a better chance to be successful on offense We have these teams rated almost dead even so not sure when ND is almost a 3 point favorite on this neutral field in Miami. The Irish have covered 10 in a row so that plays a role in this number. We’ll take the points with PSU.

#281 ASA PLAY ON Buffalo -3 over Liberty, Saturday at 11 AM ET – BAHAMAS BOWL - The level of motivation for this game looks to be drastically different. Buffalo was expected to be a 5 win type team (pre-season win total) and they exceeded expectations with a very solid 8-4 record. They did not make a bowl game last season and they’ve only played in 6 bowl games in school history so they are thrilled to be playing on Saturday in the Bahamas Bowl. Liberty had much higher expectations this season. They were supposed to win double digit games and many thought they would be a team that could compete for the Group of 5 spot in the CFP. That didn’t happen and they were really never close to meeting expectations this season. The Flames finished 8-3 despite playing the easiest strength of schedule in college football. They were favored in every game yet lost 3 games outright and won 2 games in OT when they were tabbed as double digit chalk. They finished the season with an ATS record of just 3-8. Liberty will be without starting QB Salter who started every game the last 2 seasons and is headed to Oregon State in the portal. They will also be without 3 starting offensive linemen who are headed elsewhere. Buffalo won only 3 games last season and are sitting in a bowl game this season. Teams in that situation (0 to 3 wins last year and now in a bowl game) are 39-13-2 ATS (75%) as long as their opponent isn’t in the same situation which Liberty is not (they won 13 games last season thus a very disappointing year in 2024 for the Flames). Let’s take Buffalo here.

#279 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota -9 over Virginia Tech, Friday at 7:30 PM ET – MAYO BOWL @ Charlotte, NC - Minnesota is always motivated come bowl season under head coach PJ Fleck. He seems to always have them ready this time of year winning 5 straight bowl games. They’ve won those games by an average of more than 10 PPG. The Gophs have very few opt outs / transfer portal players that won’t play here. They seem to be all in here as they usually are during bowl season. It looks like the direct opposite situation on the other sideline. Va Tech is missing a ton of key players and it’s high possible 13 to 14 starters won’t play in this game. Their offensive line looks decimated heading into this game, top RB Tuten (1,100 yards rushing) will be out, and it looks like they will be down to their 3rd string QB in this game. Starting QB Drones is injured, back up Schlee is banged up, so it could be Pop Watson (47 career pass attempts) under center. On defense the top 6 players in snaps played this season for Tech will be out of this game. So while Minnesota is focused fully on this game, we’re not so sure VT will be. Losing all of those key players from a team that wasn’t all that good to begin with (6-6 record & 3-6 vs bowl teams) might be just too tough to overcome. We just don’t see this shorthanded VT team being able to move the ball vs a Minnesota defense that ranked in the top 10 nationally in total defense and top 21 in YPP allowed, rush defense, and pass defense. The ACC has shown to be an overrated conference this bowl season with a 2-9 SU record while the Big 10 is 8-5 thus far. When Big 10 faces the ACC in bowl games they are on a 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS run. Minnesota by double digits.

#259 ASA PLAY ON Alabama -14.5 over Michigan, Tuesday at 12 PM ET – RELIAQUEST BOWL in Tampa, FL - We think Bama will be much more motivated for this game after being left out of the CFP. The Tide have something to prove and they should have a big coaching edge with DeBoer, who coached in the National Championship Game last year with Washington, having extra time vs Michigan 1st year head coach Moore. Maybe a little extra incentive for DeBoer here as well after losing to Michigan in last year’s National Title game. Bama lost a few WR’s for this game but for the most part they are pretty much in tact with most of their starters ready to go. Michigan has lost 8 or 9 of their best players for this game either to the portal or the NFL Draft. In fact, 4 potential first round draft picks for the Wolverines will not play here including DL Graham and Grant and top DB Johnson. Not only that, offensively they will be missing both of their RB’s Mullings and Edwards who combined for 1,500 yards rushing this season and their leading receiver TE Loveland who had over 500 yards receiving (no other Michigan player had more than 300 yards receiving this season). Michigan’s “want to” has to come into question here as well after winning the National Championship last year and now play in the Reliaquest Bowl. They already won their most important game @ OSU to end the season so a flat performance here might be in order. Michigan wasn’t a very good team this season (YPP margin of +0.0 is pretty average) and now we can argue that 8 or 9 of their top 10 players on the team aren’t even playing in this game. The Crimson Tide weren’t as dominant as they have been in previous years, but they are still a very good team with a +1.6 YPP margin this year vs a top 15 schedule. They also have a huge edge at QB with Milroe over Michigan’s Davis Warren (former walk on). Let’s roll with Bama to win by more than 2 TD’s.

#257 ASA PLAY ON Iowa +3 over Missouri, Monday at 2:30 PM ET – MUSIC CITY BOWL @ Nashville, TN - Iowa finished 8-4 on the season despite having injury concerns at QB on and off all season. Starting QB McNamara started the first 7 games of the season and then was injured. He could have come back but we were hearing that head coach Ferentz decided to go with Sullivan (former Northwestern starting QB) for the rest of the season. He played in 3 games and then he was injured. Iowa went with 3rd stringer Strasser down the stretch but Sullivan is now back and healthy and will start here. In the 2 games he started and played the entire game, Iowa won both and outscored Wisconsin & NW by a combined score of 82-24. Sullivan is a veteran who brings a dual threat to the position. Most of Iowa’s starters are in for this game, however they will be missing RB Johnson which is a big loss. However, Mizzou will be without their top offensive weapon WR Burden so those 2 offset each other. The Hawkeyes do have some quality back up RB’s that have done well this season and we expect them to win in the trenches here. Missouri’s defensive strength is vs the pass, however they have struggled at times stopping the run ranking 60th in YPC allowed. Iowa is in the top 25 in both rush offense and defense. These 2 played almost identical strength of schedules and Iowa had the better YPP margin (+0.6 to +0.1) and YPC rushing margin (+1.4 to +0.2). We know Iowa is excited to be here and will bring their “A” game after getting rolled 35-0 in last year’s bowl game. Missouri we’re not so sure. They were a top 10 team prior to the season and may not be overly thrilled to be in the Music City Bowl. We’ll take the dog here.

#243 ASA PLAY ON Boston College +4 over Nebraska, Saturday at 12 PM ET – PINSTRIPE BOWL @ Yankee Stadium - BC made a QB change near the latter part of the season with previous starter Castellanos entering the portal, head coach Bill O’Brien went with Grayson James. Since he took over, the Eagles are 3-1 with their only loss coming 38-28 vs an SMU team that made the College Football Playoff and in that game the yardage was about dead even. The 3 wins BC had with James under center were all vs bowl teams (Syracuse, Pitt, and UNC) and they controlled the trenches in those games rushing for an average of 223 YPG while allowing just 32 YPG holding each of those opponents to less than 40 yards rushing. Even in their loss down the stretch vs a very good SMU team, the Eagles outrushed the Mustangs by 40 yards. They were 6-2 ATS this season vs the 8 bowl teams they faced and their point differential was about dead even. Nebraska, on the other hand, squeaked into their first bowl game since 2015 despite losing 5 of their final 6 games. The Huskers beat ONE conference team that made it to a bowl game and that was a tight 14-7 home win over Rutgers and the yardage was dead even in that game. The Huskers were outscored by an average of -6 PPG in the 7 bowl teams they faced and in what is anticipated to be a close game here, Nebraska was just 1-5 SU in games decided by a single score. This game is in NYC which gives BC an advantage as well traveling only 200 miles compared to 1,300 miles for Nebraska. We like BC to keep this close and have a shot to win outright. Take the points.

#237 ASA PLAY ON Syracuse -17 over Wash State, Friday at 8 PM ET – HOLIDAY BOWL in San Diego - This line has moved drastically since the open and for good reason. We still think it’s not enough and expect the Orange to win this one by 20+ points. Syracuse has very few opt outs and head coach Brown said most if not all of his starters will play. Meanwhile, Washington State barely has enough players remaining on the team to run a decent practice. The Cougars have at least 13 starters out here and upwards of 30 in the transfer portal. The head coach Dickert has left for the head job at Wake Forest, both the offensive and defensive coordinators are gone along with a number of other assistant coaches. The catalyst for their offense QB Mateer is off to Oklahoma and will not play here. On top of that, this Washington State team seem distracted and disinterested down the stretch when rumors of their QB and head coach getting better opportunities reared their head. They lost their last 3 games of the regular season vs New Mexico, Oregon State, and Wyoming, all teams with losing records that didn’t qualify for bowl games. On the other hand, Syracuse was surging winning 7 of their final 9 games sporting the #1 passing offense in the country (363 YPG passing). They are facing a WSU defense that was terrible overall (116th in total defense) and couldn’t stop the pass (118th in pass defense). Now that defense, that was bad to begin with, will be without their 2 starting CB’s and a starting safety. Cuse has massive motivation here after losing their bowl game last year 45-0 and head coach Brown has made sure his team remembers that. The Orange are all in to win this game and the Cougars simply want this season to end. Lay it.

#230 ASA PLAY ON Bowling Green -8 over Arkansas State, Thursday at 9 PM ET - BG seems to be taking this game very seriously as they have 3 key players in the portal, 2 that have committed to Power 4 schools, but all plan on playing to go out with one final win for the Falcons. Starting RB Stewart (committed to Va Tech), starting LT Wollschlaeger (committed to Kentucky), and starting LB Sipp (committed to Kansas), all made the trip and are slated to start on Thursday. That would give the Falcons their entire starting line up ready to go in this game as the look to get to 8 wins (one more than last season) and make up for their regular season finale loss to Miami OH which kept them out of the MAC Championship game. Despite the same records (both 7-5) BG was the much better team this season. They have a huge advantage in YPP margin sitting at +0.4 compared to Arkansas State who had a terrible -1.6 YPP margin. The edge defensively in this game for the Falcons is as big as any in the bowl games this season. BG ranks 32nd nationally in total defense (allowing 331 YPG) and 22nd in scoring defense (allowing 20 PPG). Arkansas State finished 129th in total defense (allowing 462 YPG), 112th in scoring defense (allowing 32 PPG), and 132nd in rush defense (allowing 227 YPG rushing). The Red Wolves played 11 games vs FBS opponents and they were outgained in 8 of those games. The only 3 teams they outgained this season were Tulsa, USM, and Troy who finished with a combined record of 8-28! Bowling Green finished 6-2 in the MAC with their losses coming vs NIU and Miami OH, both bowl teams. In the non-conference season they gave 2 high level Power 4 teams all they could handle losing by 7 @ Penn State and losing by 6 @ Texas A&M. If BG comes ready to play, as is seems they will, they are the FAR better team in this match up. Lay it.

#220 ASA PLAY ON UTSA -11 over Coastal Carolina, Monday at 11 AM ET - This line has been climbing and for good reason. UTSA opened around a TD favorite and now is laying -11 to -11.5 range. This game is actually being played on Coastal’s home field but we don’t expect any advantage here on a Monday morning, a few days prior to Xmas, with the students already on break. The atmosphere won’t favor CC in this game. In fact, we’d argue that playing at home might not be great as players like to travel on visit other cities and venues for bowl games. Playing at home might not be a motivator for the CC players. The ones that remain that is. Coastal has been hit as hard as any bowl team in regards to transfers, opt outs, etc… They will be without their top 2 QB’s including starter Vasko leaving them with 2 freshman who have yet to play in a game in their careers. The Chanticleers have a number of other starters / key players that are moving on and won’t be playing in this game as well. After struggling down the stretch as well losing 5 of their last 7 games, it seems like they have called it a season so to speak. UTSA was rising a the end of the season winning 4 of their last 6. They are coming into this one off a loss to end the season @ Army in a tight game (29-24) vs a very good team. They’ll have a huge edge at QB here with starting McCown who threw for over 3,000 yards and 24 TD’s on an offense that averaged 32 PPG on the season. Down the stretch the Roadrunner offense was even more potent topping 40 points in 4 of their last 5 games. UTSA head coach Traylor said while they do have some players in the portal, he expects most of his team to be available and play in this game. UTSA seems to be all in as opposed to CC. We’re not sure Coastal can keep up offensively here. Lay it.

#216 ASA PLAY ON Texas -12.5 over Clemson, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Clemson is lucky to be here as they have not been great this season. They’ve beaten the low level teams but struggled with the teams on their schedule that were solid. The 4 best teams they played this season (Georgia, Louisville, SMU, and South Carolina), the Tigers lost 3 of those game including 2 at home. Their lone win in that bunch was topping SMU 34-31 in the ACC Championship game and even in that one, Clemson was outgained by 130 yards. Our power rating have the Longhorns as the best team in the nation despite their 5 seed in the CFP. Their 2 losses both came vs Georgia but the fact is they outplayed the Bulldogs statistically this season. In their first loss they Horns were outgained by 22 yards and in their tight loss in the SEC Championship game, Texas outgained UGA by more than 100 yards. They had 7 turnovers in those 2 games which cost them a chance at an undefeated season. When Clemson played Georgia this season, they lost by 31 points and were outgained by 265 yards. The Tigers defense is the worst they’ve had in over a decade ranking outside the top 40 in total defense, YPP allowed and PPG allowed. Meanwhile the Texas defense is ranked in the top 5 in each of those key categories despite playing the tougher schedule. Since the CFP started in 2014, there have been 8 teams favored by double digits and those teams are 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS. Texas is the MUCH better team in this game and they are at home. This feels like a 2 TD+ win for the Horns. Lay it.

#118 ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON SMU -2.5 over Clemson, Saturday at 8 PM ET - SMU has just 1 loss on the season, a 3 point setback to a very good BYU team (10-2 record), and that was prior to current QB Jennings taking over as the starter for a struggling Preston Stone. Since Jennings has been starting under center, the Mustangs are 9-0 winning by an average score of 41-21. During that stretch they beat a number of bowl teams including Louisville by 7 on the road, TCU by 24, @ Duke by 1, Pitt by 13, BC by 10, and Cal by 32, all teams .500 or better. The Mustangs are really good on both sides of the ball with a top 25 offense and defense in a YPP basis. They have the 4th best rush defense in the country allowing only 95 YPG on 2.8 YPC and they have outgained their opponents by an average of +1.8 YPP. Clemson hasn’t really beaten any really good teams this season. The only team they beat that ended the season with a winning record was Pitt and in that game the Panthers outgained Clemson by almost 100 yards and the Tigers scored a TD with 1:16 remaining to win 24.20. Whenever the Tigers had to step up in class they fell short losing big to Georgia by 31, to Louisville by 12 at home, and to South Carolina by 3 at home. If you subtract their 1 good win vs Pitt, who finished with a 7-5 record and was trending down at the end of the year, the Tigers other 7 wins (vs FBS opponents) were vs teams that had a combined record of 25-46. SMU is the better team on both sides of the ball in this game and fared much better vs common opponents. We like SMU to win this one by more than a FG.

#112 ASA PLAY ON Miami OH -2.5 over Ohio, Saturday at 12 PM ET - These 2 met earlier this season and Miami dominated the Bobcats. The final score was 30-20 but that was not indicative of the lopsided play on the field. Miami led 30-6 with less than 6:00 minutes remaining in the game and Ohio scored 2 meaningless TD’s late. Ohio finished with 291 total yards on just 3.8 YPP and 91 of those yards came on their last 2 drives of the game, both TD’s. The Redhawks averaged 6.4 YPP in the game, outrushed Ohio 5.0 to 3.3 YPC, and averaged 8.5 yards per pass attempt to 4.2 for the Bobcats. Just complete domination in that win. These 2 both have just 1 loss in MAC play, however Miami has played the much tougher slate in conference facing Bowling Green, NIU, Toledo, and Ohio, the 4 highest rated teams in the league besides themselves. Ohio, on the other hand, avoided both BG and NIU with their only decent win on MAC playing coming vs Toledo. Despite that, the Redhawks still had the better YPP margin in conference play (+1.6 to +1.2). Last week, Miami dominated a very good BG team on the road in what was a play in game for the MAC Championship. They win 28-12, outgained the Eagles by over 100 yards and had a +2.2 YPC margin. We get the better QB in this game as well on our side with Miami’s Gabbert, a 6th year senior, who has thrown for over 10,000 yards with 80 TD’s and 29 picks. Ohio QB Navarro is a senior as well, but a 1st year starter who has thrown for 2,100 career yards with just 13 TD’s and 11 picks. Miami was in this game last year and won giving them an edge as well. The Redhawks win their 2nd straight MAC Title on Saturday

#107 ASA PLAY ON UNLV +4 over Boise State, Friday at 8 PM ET - These 2 met earlier this season and Boise pulled out a 29-24 win and despite the loss UNLV outgained the Broncos by nearly +1.0 YPP (6.3 to 5.4 YPP). The only turnover in the game was an interception thrown by UNLV QB Williams that led to a short 17-yard TD drive for Boise which turned out to be the difference in the game. We were very impressed with the Rebels rush defense as they held All American RB Jeanty to only 3.9 YPC. If they can accomplish that again, we like UNLV to win this game outright. They have a great shot at doing so as the Rebs rank 10th in the nation holding opponents to only 101 YPG rushing on 3.1 YPC. If UNLV can slow down Boise’s run game, the Broncos will have to rely on QB Madsen who has struggled down the stretch completing less than 55% of his passes in 4 of their last 6 games. This Boise State team has been trending down in our opinion. Last week they beat a bad Oregon State team but the Broncos were outgained 6.0 YPP to 5.7 YPP. In their 3 games leading up to last week’s win vs OSU, the Broncos needed a late TD to beat Wyoming who finished with a 3-9 record, they beat SJSU but were outgained in the stats but helped by 4 Spartan turnovers, and barely held on to beat a 3-10 Nevada team by a TD. UNLV ranks 4th nationally averaging 254 YPG rushing and they’ve outrushed their last 4 opponents by an average of +200 YPG on the ground. We love a good running team that has a solid defense as an underdog. UNLV keeps this very close and has a great shot to win it outright.

#372 ASA PLAY ON James Madison -3.5 over Marshall, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Marshall is on a 5 game winning streak but digging into the stats they have been very fortunate to say the least. The Herd have actually been outgained in 3 of those 5 wins and were dead even yardage wise in another. They’ve benefitted from opponent’s mistakes as they are +7 turnovers in those 5 games. On top of that, not one of their opponents during this 5 game run currently has a winning record. Now they run into a James Madison team that is 8-3 this season and they are a perfect 5-0 at home and they’ve win 15 of their last 17 home games. Marshall is playing their 2nd straight road game and they are 2-3 on the road this year and just 3-8 away from home since the start of last season. They will be facing a motivated JMU team who is coming off a loss @ App State as a 7 point favorite. The Dukes also have a chance to knock Marshall out of the Sun Belt Championship game as a win here puts the Herd in that game next week (extra pressure on the road team to win this one). Last week Marshall played @ ODU (who is now 4-7 on the season) and the line in that game was the Monarchs favored by 3. They were outgained in that game 513 to 469, ODU has 2 turnovers (0 for Marshall) and the Herd scored a late TD to win by 7. Now we’re getting nearly the same number @ JMU (currently -3.5) and the Dukes are a much better team than ODU (JMU was favored @ ODU just a few weeks ago). JMU is the better team across the board with better YPP, YPG, and YPC margins and playing in their home finale. Marshall is vastly overvalued right now with a 9-1 ATS record which is why we are getting this great value with JMU at home. Lay the small number with James Madison on Saturday night.

#438 ASA PLAY ON USC +8 over Notre Dame, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This line is too high in our opinion. USC was +3 to +3.5 at home vs Penn State this year and the game went to OT. We have PSU and ND rated within 1 point of each other yet we’re getting more than a TD in this one. ND has been rolling over opponents during their current 9 game winning streak but they haven’t played many good teams during that stretch. The best team they faced in that 9 game run was Louisville (who is currently 7-4) and while the Irish won that game at home, they were outgained by 115 yards. Speaking of playing at home, the Irish have not played a true road game since traveling to Purdue in mid September. They’ve played 3 neutral site games since then but not a true road game. The situation for the Irish isn’t great either as they played in NYC last week vs Army and now travel to the west coast this week while USC has basically been at home for the last 3 weeks (played @ UCLA across town last week and home vs Nebraska prior to that). The Trojans are much better than their 6-5 record with a YPP margin of +0.6 and a YPG margin of +65 playing a MUCH more difficult schedule than ND (15th SOS for USC and 65th for ND). USC has been unlucky to say the least with their 5 losses coming by a combined 19 points with none by more than a TD. Notre Dame has very rarely been dominant when facing USC in LA with only ONE win by more than a TD in the last 27 meetings on the west coast. We like USC getting more than a TD here.

#327 ASA PLAY ON Mississippi State +26 over Ole Miss, Friday at 3:30 PM ET - We were on Ole Miss last weekend @ Florida and missed that one badly. The Rebs were coming out of a bye and needed a big win to keep their CFB Playoff hopes alive. They laid an egg and lost as a double digit favorite and now their hopes are out the window. How do they respond here vs a 2-9 MSU team? We’re guessing the Rebels will be flat as a pancake with no CFB Playoff in their future. On the other sidelines, this is Mississippi State’s Super Bowl so to speak. They would like nothing more than to close out their season with an upset win over their rival. The Bulldogs have already shown the can hang with the big boys covering @ Georgia (lost by 10 as a 32 point dog), @ Tennessee (lost by 19 as a 26 point dog), vs Texas A&M (lost by 10 as a 21 point dog) and @ Texas (lost by 22 as a 30+ point dog). MSU has lost only 1 game all season by more than 24 points. In SEC play, Ole Miss has only 1 win by more than 24 points. The Bulldogs are still playing hard covering 5 of their last 7 games and they’ve covered all 4 of their games when a dog of more than 2 TD’s (see above). The last time Ole Miss beat Mississippi State by more than 17 points was back in 2008 and they’ve beaten MSU by more than this spread (currently 26) just 2 times since 1988. We expect the Bulldogs to hang around in this one and get the cover.

#144 ASA TOP PLAY ON Old Dominion -2.5 over Marshall, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - This is a huge game for ODU who needs to win their last 2 games to get to 6 wins and bowl eligible. The Monarchs are coming off a 35-32 home loss vs James Madison, one of the top teams in the Sun Belt. ODU actually outplayed JMU in the stats averaging 6.3 YPP to 5.7 YPP. A week earlier, ODU lost @ App State 28-20 but outgained the Mountaineers by more than 100 yards but had 4 turnovers. Prior to that the Monarchs were on a roll winning 3 in a row all by 7+ points and despite losing their last 2, they are still playing very well. We could conceivably be looking at a 5 game winning streak for Old Dominion. Marshall did the opposite last week. They beat Coastal Carolina at home but were outgained by more than 1.0 YPP in that win. The Herd scored a TD on a blocked punt and also had a 2 yard TD drive after a Coastal turnover (CC had 3 turnovers). Marshall has very rarely ventured on the road as of late with 5 of their last 7 games coming at home. They’ve only played 2 conference road games so far beating USM, the worst team in the Sun Belt, and losing @ Georgia Southern. The Herd are 5-1 in conference play in 1st place in the Sun Belt East yet are underdogs vs ODU who is 3-3 in conference play and 4-6 overall? It’s the Monarch’s home finale and we like them to win and cover on Saturday keeping their bowl hopes alive.

#107 ASA PLAY ON Ohio +2.5 over Toledo, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - These teams are battling to get to Detroit for the MAC Championship.  Ohio has the edge now with a 5-1 conference record while Toledo sits at 4-2.  We like the Bobcats to control the line of scrimmage and ground game here which will go a long way on what is supposed to be a rainy and windy night in Toledo.  Ohio is tied for 1st place with Miami Oh and Bowling Green and the Bobcats have the best point differential in the league at +109 in conference games.  Toledo has a point differential of just +15 and is 1 game out of first place.  The Bobcats have the MAC’s #1 defense allowing just 260 YPG and they are allowing only 15 PPG which also ranks 1st.  Ohio is also solid on the other side of the ball ranking 2nd in the MAC in total offense and 1st in rushing offense putting up 215 YPG on the ground.  Toledo is just 8th in the MAC in total offense and 5th in total defense.  The Rockets can’t run the ball at all ranking outside the top 100 in YPG on the ground and YPC.  They are facing an Ohio defense that allows only 3.4 YPC (23rd nationally) and they give up barely 100 YPG rushing.  These 2 MAC foes have played nearly identical strength of schedules this season and Ohio is better in almost every category.  The Bobcats have a +1.1 YPP margin (Toledo is +0.6) and Ohio has a YPC margin of +1.8 (Toledo is +0.0 YPC).  The Rockets do have the edge passing the ball, however with windy weather expected (20+ MPH winds in the forecast as of Tuesday) we’ll take the team that should dominate the ground game.  We’re on the Bobcats plus the points. 

#382 ASA TOP PLAY ON South Carolina -13 over Missouri, Saturday at 4:15 PM ET - South Carolina is playing as well as anyone in the SEC right now with 3 straight wins all by at least 21 points. Two weeks ago at home they rolled Texas A&M 44-20 putting up 530 yards on one of the better defenses in the country. Last week was a prime letdown spot for the Gamecocks traveling to Vandy off their big A&M win. SC dominated again 28-7 outgaining the Commodores by 175 yards. That’s a Vandy team that beat Bama, nearly beat Texas (lost by 3), and took this Missouri team to OT on the road before losing by 3. On top of that, South Carolina could easily have wins over LSU (lost by 3 on a late LSU TD) and Alabama (lost by 2 @ Bama but outgained the Tide). The only team that really outplayed the Gamecocks was Ole Miss who just beat Georgia by 18 points. Missouri is the opposite situation. They have a good record (7-2) but could easily have a few more losses. They’ve had a few things go their way beating Auburn late by 4, beating Vandy in OT, and beating a way down Oklahoma team last week on a fumble return TD with 30 seconds left in the game. Their offense has really struggled (97th in YPP) and will most likely be without starting QB Cook who has a bad ankle and a hand injury. Even if he plays he’s not at 100%. His back up Pyne is not good to say the least. Facing one of the best defensive teams in the nation will make it really tough on this already below average offense. SC’s defense has allowed less than 10 points in FIVE games already this season and we wouldn’t be surprised if they do the same to Mizzou here. Comparable opponents results aren’t even close. SC beat A&M by 24, Missouri lost to A&M by 31. SC beat Vandy by 21 on the road and Mizzou topped Vandy in OT by 3 at home. SC beat Oklahoma by 29 on the road and Missouri just beat OU by 7 at home on a fumble recovery as mentioned above. SC lost @ Bama by 2, Missouri last at Bama by 34. You get the point. This one should be an easy win at home for the Gamecocks.

#310 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ohio -10 over Eastern Michigan, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - These 2 have similar records (Ohio 6-3 & EMU 5-4) but the key stats aren’t even close. EMU is extremely fortunate to have a winning record right now. They could easily be sitting with 2 or 3 wins on the season rather than 5. The Eagles have a negative point differential in conference play and on the season this team has a YPP margin of -1.3, a YPR margin of -1.1, and a yards per pass attempt margin of -1.8. Those are the stats of a team that is well below .500. They’ve been fortunate in the turnover category ranking in the top 25 nationally in turnover margin. Ohio is 4-1 in MAC play with a point differential of +84 which is the best in conference play. They’ve allowed the least points in conference play (61) while scoring the 2nd most in MAC games (165). The Bobcats are 4-0 at home winning by an average of +18 PPG. When comparing the key stats we spoke about above for EMU, the Bobcats are +1.0 YPP, +1.8 YPR, and +0.4 yards per pass attempt. They are rolling right now as well, winning 4 of their last 5 game with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Miami OH who is playing as well as anyone in the MAC right now. 3 of Ohio’s 4 wins during that stretch have come by at least 20 points and their 1 close win they led CMU 24-0 in the 3rd quarter and took their foot off the gas and won 27-25. They learned from that mistake and have stayed aggressive with a lead winning their last 2 games by a combined score of 88-16. EMU has played only 2 road games in conference play this year vs Kent and Akron, the 2 worst teams in the MAC, who have a combined record of 2-16. They beat Kent, who is 0-9 on the season, but lost @ Akron. Now they face one of the top teams in the MAC and we expect Ohio to control this game from start to finish. Lay it.

#170 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Texas +3 over Army, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Army is 8-0 on the season but they’ve played the 132nd strength of schedule out of 134 teams. The teams they’ve faced this season have a combined record of 10-35 SU vs FBS opponents and none of those teams currently have a .500 or better record. Last week Army struggled with an Air Force team that is 0-7 this year vs FBS opponents and the Cadets had just 250 total yards on 5.0 YPP. That was vs an AF defense that was giving up 410 YPG on 6.5 YPP entering that contest. Army played without their starting QB Daily in that game and there is an obvious huge drop off if he doesn’t play. He was seen in a walking boot this week and hasn’t practiced although head coach Jeff Monken said he is questionable. Even if he does get the nod, he won’t be 100% with a bad foot and that’s not ideal for a running QB. On defense, Army is facing a UNT attack that is averaging 41 PPG (6th in the nation) and ranks 3rd in the country in total offense (528 YPG). The Cadets haven’t seen an offense anywhere near this level as all 8 teams they’ve faced rank 65th or lower in total offense. UNT has played the much tougher schedule and they sit at 5-3 on the season. The Mean Green have lost 2 straight games and are coming off a bye in a must win spot. The extra week is perfect timing preparing for a unique Army offense. In those back to back losses, North Texas faced 2 of the top teams in the AAC (Tulane & Memphis) and lost 1 game in each but outgained both of those really solid opponents. As we mentioned Army is in a letdown spot off rival Air Force and the Cadets next game is vs Notre Dame. We like North Texas to win this game outright on Saturday at home giving Army their first loss of the season.

#130 ASA TOP PLAY ON Kansas +2.5 over Iowa State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Great situational spot for KU here. The Jayhawks are playing their best FB of the season and coming off a bye. Meanwhile they catch ISU off their first loss of the season and to be perfectly honest, the Cyclones haven’t played well over the last few weeks. They’ve been playing with fire and it caught up to them last week in a home loss vs a pretty average Texas Tech team. ISU’s offense was only able to generate 22 points (they lost 23-22) vs a Tech defense that had allowed the most points in the Big 12 entering last week. The previous Saturday, Iowa State needed a late surge at home to beat another pretty average team, UCF. The Cyclones scored a TD with 30 seconds remaining in that one to pick up the 38-35 wins. UCF ran for over 350 yards in that game and that is a big concern here as well. KU is a very good running team, with a mobile QB (17th nationally in rushing) and Iowa State’s defense simply hasn’t been good containing the run this year ranking 93rd in rush defense and 110th in YPC allowed. Kansas is playing really well right now and they very well coached with 2 full weeks to get ready for this game. KU nearly upset a very good KSU team on the road in their most recent game. The Jayhawks ran for 5.6 YPC in that 29-27 loss vs a very good Wildcat rush defense. The Cats scored a TD with less than 2:00 minutes remaining int the game to get that home win. All of KSU’s other home wins have been blowouts. A week prior to that tight loss, KU rolled a Houston team that is playing very well right now. They beat the Cougars 42-14 which is Houston’s only loss since late September. Houston’s wins as of late include Kansas State, Utah, and TCU. We like the value here as KU was +2.5 @ Iowa State last year and now getting the same number at home (game will be played @ Arrowhead Stadium in KC). ISU gets knocked off for the 2nd straight week. Take Kansas.

#366 ASA TOP PLAY ON SMU -7 over Pittsburgh, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Fishy line here with SMU favored by a full TD over an undefeated Pitt team. The Panthers, despite being undefeated, are trending down in our opinion. Their offense simply hasn’t played well for the last 6 straight quarters. A few weeks ago they faced Cal in a perfect spot for Pitt at home and struggled to win that game 17-15 (we were on Pitt in that game). They didn’t score a single point in the 2nd half of that game and were held to less than 100 yards after halftime. Last week, coming off a bye, if you simply looked at the final score you would think Pitt was back in stride offensively scoring 41 points vs Syracuse. Not so fast. 21 of their 41 points came on 3 interception returns for TD’s by the Panthers. The fact is, they had only 217 total yards and were held to less than 5.0 YPP in that win. Now they go on the road for just the 2nd time since September 7th to face the best team they’ve seen this season. SMU is 7-1 on the year and playing really well right now. Their only loss was by 3 points vs BYU who stands at 8-0. Last week it looks like they squeaked by @ Duke winning 28-27 but the Mustangs dominated the stats (+1.2 YPP margin). SMU had a horrible -6 turnover margin in last week’s game @ Duke and still won on the road which is extremely impressive. The Stangs are coming off a 3-0, 3 game road trip and are back at home for the first time since September. They have scored an average of 50 PPG over their last 10 home games which dates back to the start of last season. SMU starting QB Jennings was a question mark early in the week but it looks like he’ll be a full go on Saturday. We like SMU by more than a TD in this one.

#307 ASA PLAY ON Jacksonville State +2.5 over Liberty, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We’ve been waiting for this spot for a few weeks now looking forward to jumping on Jacksonville State as a dog. Liberty has been playing with fire all season long winning a number of close games vs poor opponents and it came back to bite them in their most recent game. That was a loss @ Kennesaw State who many, including us, had power rated as the worst team in FBS. That loss pushed this number down lower than it would have been but we still like JSU getting points here. In their loss vs Kennesaw, a team that JSU beat 63-24, Liberty allowed the Owls to score 27 points on 5.2 YPP. That may not seem like a big deal but KSU was averaging just 3.7 YPP entering the game (last in the nation) and they were averaging just 13 PPG. The Flames were undefeated entering that game but had really struggled to beat teams they should handle easily including NM State and FIU, among others. They continue to be priced according to their success last season but they simply aren’t anywhere near that caliber this year. The Flames are 1-5 ATS failing to cover the spread by a combined 80 points (almost 2 TD’s per game). Both teams have played an easy schedule to date but while Liberty is struggling to win by margin along with losing to what might be the worst team in the country, JSU has won and covered their last 4 games by margins of 37, 39, 41, and 22 points. The 2 common opponents this year are Kennesaw (JSU won by 39 / Liberty lost by 3) and NM State (JSU won by 41 / Liberty won by 6). Jacksonville St QB Huff is a little banged up but we’re hearing he’ll be OK for this one. His back up Smothers was originally at Nebraska and has solid experience if needed. This game would have set up perfectly for us if Liberty wouldn’t have lost to Kennesaw, however we still think the better team is getting points so we’ll stick with it.

#409 ASA PLAY ON Auburn +4 over Missouri, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Missouri is 5-1 on the season and ranked in the top 20.  Auburn is 2-4 on the season yet this line is only Mizzou -4.5 at home?  The Auburn Tigers are much better than their record this season.  Despite being 2 games under .500, Auburn has outgained their opponents by an average of +107 YPG and they have a +2.3 YPP margin.  That’s facing a very tough schedule to date (36th SOS) having already played Georgia, Oklahoma, and Arkansas.  The problem with Auburn has been turnovers.  They are already -11 turnovers on the season which is dead last in the country.  If they can rectify that, this team is really quite good.  They rank in the top 35 nationally in both total offense and total defense.  Missouri has played a light weight schedule this season.  Their strength of schedule is ranked 111th which is the 2nd easiest at the Power 4 level ahead of only Indiana.  They’ve faced only 1 team this season power rated inside our top 50 and that was Texas A&M who rolled Missouri 41-10 outgaining the Tigers 512 to 254.  The only other 2 teams with a pulse that Mizzou has faced this year were home games vs Vandy (Tigers won in OT) and Boston College (Tigers won by 6).  Despite playing an ultra easy schedule, Missouri is just +1.1 YPP margin which is far worse than Auburn’s who has faced a much more difficult slate.  Auburn is coming off a bye week and they’ve won all 3 meetings vs Missouri.  If Auburn can keep their turnovers in check, they’ll have a great shot to win this game outright. 

#124 ASA PLAY ON West Virginia +3.5 over Iowa State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - This is a perfect spot for overvalued vs undervalued in our opinion. WVU is 3-2 on the season with losses vs Penn State and Pitt who have a combined record of 10-0. The Mountaineers weren’t overly competitive in week 1 vs PSU which is understandable vs a top 5 team. They blew a 10 point lead with less than 4 minutes remaining vs Pitt so this WVU team could easily be 4-1. ISU steps in with an undefeated record but they’ve played a much easier schedule. Their best win was 20-19 vs in-state rival Iowa, a game that ISU never led until their game winning FG with 6 seconds left in the contest. Their other wins have come vs North Dakota, Arkansas State, Baylor (2-4 record), and Houston (2-4 record). The Cyclones are stepping up in class here and laying a full FG on the road. WVU has some solid momentum and should be fairly rested here as they roasted Oklahoma State 38-14 on the road last week and the Mountaineers were coming off a bye for that one. They absolutely dominated the Cowboys outgained them 558 to 227, including 389 to 36 on the ground. Speaking of the ground, West Virginia has one of the best rushing attacks in the country averaging 239 YPG on 6.0 YPC. They should control the ground game vs an Iowa State defense that allowed 155 YPG rushing on 5.0 YPC. Dating back to early in the 2021 season, ISU has been a road favorite 9 times and they have a 3-6 ATS & SU record in those games. They are overvalued here due to their perfect mark vs a weak schedule. We like WVU to win this game at home.

#128 ASA TOP PLAY ON Pittsburgh -3 over California, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Just a terrible situational spot for the Golden Bears. This team will have a hard time getting up off the mat after blowing a huge lead at home vs Miami last week. Cal led the Canes by 20 points with just over 10 minutes remaining in game last Saturday and they lost 39-38. Miami scored 3 TD’s in the final 10:28 to get the 1 point win including the game winner with 28 seconds remaining. Now they have to make the long 2500 mile trip to Pittsburgh which will be the Bears 3rd trip to the east time zone since Sept 7th. That means this Cal team will have already traveled almost 13,000 miles in the last 5 weeks when they land in Pittsburgh for this game. Their devastating home loss vs Miami on Saturday actually wasn’t as close as the score would indicate. How the Bears pulled out to a 20 point lead is tough to comprehend as they were outgained by 205 total yards and had 18 fewer first downs. The Canes held a 15 minute time of possession edge and ran 86 offensive snaps which should lead the Cal defense running out of gas in this game, especially as the game wears on. While the Bears were blowing a huge lead at home, Pitt went into North Carolina and won 34-24 outgaining the Heels by over 100 yards. They won by 10 despite the Tar Heels scoring on an 86 yard pick 6 which was potentially a 14 point turnaround with Pitt going into score. The Panthers are now 5-0 with solid wins over UNC, West Virginia, and Cincinnati. It’s not a fluke the Panthers are undefeated as their stats have been dominant. On the season they are +20 PPG, +152 YPG, +2.3 YPP, and +2.9 yards per rush. Cal is 3-2 on the season and in those stats they are +8 PPG, +28 YPG, +0.7 YPP, and +0.2 yards per rush. One of their long road trips was a loss @ a bad Florida State team giving the Noles their only win so far this season. Pitt is at home and is full focused heading into a bye week. Easy win for the Panthers in this one.

SUN BELT CONFERENCE (SBC) GAME OF THE MONTH: #387 ASA PLAY ON South Alabama -3 over Arkansas State, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Arkansas State has the better record at 2-2 while South Alabama sits at 2-3 yet we feel the Jaguars are the much better team in this match up.  Arkie State could easily be 0-4 on the season as their wins over Central Arkansas and Tulsa by 3 & 4 points respectively.  The Red Wolves were outgained 7.1 YPP to 5.0 YPP vs FCS Central Arkansas and 5.9 YPP to 5.3 YPP vs Tulsa.  They were extremely fortunate to come out with 2 wins in those games.  On the season Arkansas State had a YPG margin of -120, a YPP margin of -2.2 and a YPC (rushing) margin of -3.2.  Compare that to South Alabama who has a YPG margin of +21, a YPP margin of +0.4, and a YPC margin of +1.7.  The Jaguars should have a massive edge on the ground in this game 210 YPG rushing on 6.2 YPC vs a Arkansas State defense 234 yards on the ground (129th) on 6.0 YPC (131st).  The Wolves have been outgained by at least 1.8 YPC in all 4 of their games this season.  The South Alabama offense is potent and we don’t see ASU keeping up here.  They rank 19th nationally in total offense (470 YPG) and 21st putting up 7.1 YPP.  ASU ranks 104th and 125th in those 2 stats.  On top of that, we don’t see the Arkansas State defense making up for their offensive deficiencies here as they rank outside the top 100 in total defense and YPP allowed.  South Alabama has won 5 straight in this series and last year they were favored by 15.5 so getting them at -3 here is a bargain.  The Jags already proved they can get it done on the road beating App State 48-14 a few weeks ago and we have App State rated as a better team that Arkansas State.  Let’s lay this small number with South Alabama.

#127 ASA TOP PLAY ON North Carolina +2.5 over Duke, Saturday at 4 PM ET - We were on James Madison last weekend vs UNC and picked up a solid win.  We’ll switch it up this Saturday and take the Heels getting points @ Duke.  Last week’s 70-50 loss for the Tar Heels was a bit deceiving.  The yardage with JMU was basically dead even (616 to 612) but UNC lost the turnover margin at -4 (5 turnovers for UNC and 1 for JMU).  Not only that, those turnovers turned into points for as the Dukes scored TD’s on a pick 6 and a blocked punt along with 2 other UNC giveaways that also turned into 2 touchdowns.  The defense was obviously shredded but prior to last weekend that unit had played well allowing just 15.6 PPG through their first 3 games.  The defense was embarrassed last week and we look for a huge effort on that side of the ball Saturday against a Duke offense that isn’t very explosive.  The Devils rank outside the top 90 in total offense, YPP offense, and rushing offense.  Duke is 4-0 but we haven’t been overly impressed.  They struggled to beat UConn at home a few weeks ago 26-21 and they were outrushed 4.8 YPC to 3.6 YPC in that game.  Last week they faced one of the worst teams in the nation, Middle Tennessee State, and while the final score looked solid (45-17 win) they only outgained the Blue Raiders by 45 yards.  MTSU won in the trenches as well outrushing Duke 4.2 YPC to 3.5 YPC but the Raiders had 4 turnovers.  UNC head coach Mack Brown apologized to his team after last week’s loss and they’ve rallied around him this week.  We expect a big effort from the Heels.  North Carolina has dominated this series winning 28 of the last 33 meetings.  They were a dog in only 4 of those 33 match ups and covered all 4.  We like UNC to win this game outright.

#152 ASA TOP PLAY ON Kansas State -5 over Oklahoma State, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Both teams off losses last week but OSU’s was deceivingly close while KSU was the opposite.  Kansas State lost 38-9 as 7 point favorites at BYU (we were on the Cougars in that one).  Believe it or not, the Cats outgained BYU by +125 yards and outrushed them 228 to 92.  Three turnovers were a killer for KSU in that game.  The Wildcats led 6-0 with just over 2:00 minutes remaining in the first half.  4 minutes into the 2nd half (so a 6 minute span) BYU led 31-6 and had TD drives of 5, 29, 27 and 6 yards during that 6 minute span basically putting the game out of reach.  Now we get an angry Kansas State team at home that should dominate in the trenches.  They are averaging 240 yards on the ground on 6.5 YPC facing an Oklahoma State defense that ranks outside the top 100 at stopping the run.  KSU yards per carry differential (YPC offense minus YPC they allow on defense) is +3.7.  OSU’s YPC differential is -1.3 and they rank outside the top 100 both rushing on offense and stopping the run on defense as we mentioned above.  OSU looked like they gave Utah a battle last week losing 22-19.  Fact is the Cowboys were down 22-3 at home in that game with less than 6 minutes remaining.  They were outgained 457 to 285 and outrushed 250 to 48.  On top of that, Utah’s starting QB Rising didn’t play and the Utes started a freshman at QB and still dominated.  These two both have 3-1 record and have played a very similar strength of schedule, yet KSU has a YPP differential of +1.3 while OSU is -0.2.  Last time OSU visited Manhattan KS 2 years ago, they left with a 48-0 loss.  Last year the Wildcats were favored by 11.5 AT Oklahoma State and lost in a upset.  This year at home they are laying just -5 and we look for a dominating with for the home team. 

#186 ASA PLAY ON Baylor -16.5 over Air Force, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - This ain’t the Air Force team of the last few seasons.  Not even close.  The Falcons lost nearly everyone from last year’s team and rank outside the top 100 in returning yardage, returning tackles, and returning offensive line starts.  The problem is, when Air Force loses that much talent, they aren’t the team that just pays kids to come in from the portal and replace them.  They are going with what they have and it hasn’t been pretty so far this season.  The Falcons struggled in week 1 to beat FCS Merrimack and AF was actually outgained 3.8 YPP to 3.4 YPP.  Even more concerning for heavy running Air Force, they were outgained on the ground 4.2 YPG to 3.0 YPC.  That was vs a Merrimack team that turned around and played a bad UConn team last week and lost 63-17 getting outgained 625 to 279 vs the Huskies.  AF played San Jose State in week 2 and lost again averaging only 3.0 YPC.  For a heavy running team that has completed only 13 passes in 2 games to average only 3.0 YPC is a big problem.  Now they face a Baylor team that is far more talented and deep compared to Merrimack and San Jose State.  The Bears should be hungry here coming off a 23-12 loss @ Utah who many feel is the best team in the Big 12 this season.  On top of that, they lost to Air Force in the 2022 Armed Forces Bowl giving them a little extra motivation.  Baylor QB Finn, transfer from Toledo, will give the AF defense big problems with his running ability, after the Falcons faced 2 non-mobile QB’s in the first 2 weeks.  Baylor is the much more athletic and deeper team here which will be key as this one is being played in 90+ degree temps in Waco.  Baylor wears down AF and rolls to a big win.

#138 ASA PLAY ON Washington -5.5 over Washington State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This game is in Seattle at the Seahawks home stadium.  Washington lost a ton of production off of last year’s team that played for the National Championship but they’ve been flying under the radar so far this season.  New HC Jedd Fisch, who led Arizona to a 10-3 record last year, and new QB Rogers who transferred from Mississippi State, have this team clicking early in the year.  They are currently 8th in the nation in YPP differential at +4.5.  They handled one of the top team in FCS, Weber State, 35-3 and outgained them by 230 yards.  Last week they beat Eastern Michigan 30-9 but the stats were much worse than that with the Huskies outgained the Eagles by 300 yards.  Wazzou is in a similar situation losing nearly all of their production from last year (113th in returning yards & 109th in returning tackles).  The Cougars beat Portland State (bad FCS team) to open the season and then beat Texas Tech in Pullman last week.  Tech had a multitude of key players that had to sit out that game including top RB Boyd along with a number of defensive starters and the Red Raiders had 4 turnovers in that game.  While Washington and Washington State haven’t played a common opponent, let’s focus on their FCS opponents in week 1.  That’s because those 2 opponents played each other in week 2.  As we mentioned, the Huskies outgained Weber State by 230 yards in week 1.  Wazzou outgained Portland State by 185 yards in week 1.  Weber State played Portland State last week and rolled to an easy 43-16 win outgaining PSU by 300 yards!  You get the point.  Washington has covered 16 of the last 23 meetings in this rivalry along with 12 of the last 14 SU.  Huskies get another won and cover in Seattle on Saturday.

#368 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nevada pick-em over Georgia Southern, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Nevada has been a surprise this year taking a good SMU team to the wire and then turning around the next week and beating Troy on the road as 8 point underdogs (we were on Troy unfortunately).  We felt Nevada was in a really tough spot last week after nearly upsetting SMU then having to travel across the country and play in the heat and humidity @ Troy (Alabama).  The Trojans have an outstanding program (23-5 record the previous 2 seasons) and the Wolfpack got down 14-0 early and battled back for a 28-26 win.  Very impressive.  The Wolfpack have run the ball very well with 214 yards rushing last week vs good Troy defense on 6.3 YPC.  The week prior they outgained SMU on the ground by +0.5 YPC and last week outgained Troy on the ground by +1.0 YPC.  That rushing success should continue on Saturday as they face Georgia Southern defense that allowed 371 yards rushing on over 10 YPC vs Boise last week.  GSU gave Boise a decent run losing 56-45 but it really wasn’t that close as the Broncos outgained the Eagles by almost 200 yards despite running 20 fewer offensive snaps.  The final count on a yards per play basis was Boise 9.9, GSU 5.4.  We like Nevada’s new HC Choate who led a very good Texas defense the previous season and before that had an impressive run as the head man @ Montana State.  He has this team playing hard and with confidence.  They should catch Georgia Southern in a tough spot here after giving everything they had last week trying to upset Boise and now making the long travel west.  GSU is not trustworthy laying points on the road (or pick-em) as they’ve only won 7 of their last 29 road tilts outright.  As you might expect looking at those numbers, the Eagles are just 4-10 ATS as road favorites since 2015 (lined opened with GSU favored and now pick-em).  Nevada gets the win on Saturday.

#186 ASA PLAY ON 10* Florida +2.5 over Miami FL, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We just don’t trust this Miami team coming out of the gates.  Lots of hype around the Canes with multiple transfers securing key spots including QB Ward who came over from Washington State.  We think it will take them some time to get acclimated to each other and let’s face it, while Miami HC Cristobal is a very good recruiter, he is not a great head man.  He has been in charge of the Canes for 2 years with plenty of talent to do very well and his record here is just 14-11.  While U of M loaded up on transfers, we don’t like the continuity of this team ranking outside the top 100 in returning letterman and return tackle percentage on defense.  Again, they may struggle early in the year starting on Saturday.  Florida is coming off a tough 5-7 season in 2023 (5 of their losses came vs teams ranked 19 or higher) and nobody is talking about this team which is just how they like it.  The Gators return a bunch of production on offense ranking 36th nationally in returning yards.  Graham Mertz is back at QB and he finished 3rd in the nation in completion percentage last year at 73%.  It looks like top RB Johnson (2,500 career yards) will play here after missing some camp after a minor knee surgery.  We’ve been hearing good things coming out of camp about the Gator defense, especially the defensive line which is very deep this season.  Miami seems to be overrated every year.  They bring in players in highly rated players in recruiting and the portal and it rarely transfers to the field  The Canes were ranked in the top 25 entering the season in 2018, 2021, and 2022 and finished outside the rankings in each of those season.  The Swamp is a tough place to play with the Gators winning 28 of their last 35 games here, and Napier is 11-2 ATS in his career as a small home dog (+5 or less).  We take the Gators getting points at home on Saturday.

#287 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington +4.5 over Michigan, Monday at 7:30 PM ET - Washington is a perfect 3-0 SU as an underdog this year with outright wins over Texas, Oregon, and Oregon State in that role. Dating back to the beginning of last year, the Huskies are 5-0 SU as an underdog. We think they have a great shot to upset Michigan on Monday and if they do lose, we expect it to be close and were getting +4.5 as a buffer. Nobody has been able to stop Washington’s passing game this season (#1 in the nation averaging 358 YPG through the air) and we don’t think Michigan will be any different. While the Wolverines defense has fantastic numbers, the fact is they’ve played a number of very weak offenses this year with 8 of the 13 offenses they faced during the regular season ranked outside the top 100. They’ve only faced 2 passing offenses ranked inside the top 50, Maryland (21st) and Ohio State (22nd), and both of those teams gave the Michigan defense problems throwing for 247 and 271 yards respectively in 2 close games (both decided by a TD or less). Now they face the best passing offense in the nation and the key for Washington will be keeping QB Penix upright which we think they’ll do. The Huskies offensive line has allowed a grand total of 11 sacks the entire season (4th best in the nation) and didn’t allow a single sack vs a very good Texas defensive front last week. Michigan was able to generate massive pressure on Bama QB Milroe last week, however the Crimson Tide offensive line was a liability all season long ranking 125th in sacks per game allowed so that wasn’t surprising. Even with that pressure, Alabama was still able to push Michigan to OT before losing in semi finals. Washington doesn’t have great defensive numbers but their strength is vs the run (41st nationally) so they match up well with the Wolverines offense. Bottom line is, we think Washington has a great shot to win this game and if they lose we’re getting above key numbers 3 & 4 so also a decent chance to win in that situation as well. Take the points.

#272 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wyoming -3.5 over Toledo, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - The Cowboys have big time motivation here to win one for the gipper so to speak. Wyoming’s head coach, Craig Bohl (10 years at Wyoming), has made it known he will retire after this game and he is very well liked by his players so look for a supreme effort from the Cowboys. It looks like they will have nearly everyone available here as well with the exception of 1 starting offensive lineman and 1 defensive back. Toledo, on the other hand, has lost some key parts, especially on offense, where starting QB Finn (2,600 yards passing & 560 yards rushing) has already transferred to Baylor and starting RB Boone (1400 yards rushing) is in the portal as well. Not to mention Toledo head coach Candle was rumored as a potential HC at a number of other programs and seems to be every season which has been a distraction. Speaking of Candle, he’s been a terrible bowl coach which might have something to do with his name coming up each year for openings at this time of year. Candle is 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS his last 5 bowl games and Toledo was favored in 4 of those games. On top of that, the MAC was a terrible conference this season which led to Toledo having a strength of schedule ranking of 130th. The MAC bowl game blunders are also well documented as the conference has a SU bowl record of 14-55 their last 69 post season games. Rockets back up QB Gleason has some experience but this team relies heavily on the run (11th in rushing YPG) and he is not even in the same stratosphere at Finn when it comes to running the ball. This team has basically lost 2,000 yards on the ground to the transfer portal which will be nearly impossible to overcome here. The Rockets overall defensive stats look impressive but they didn’t face a single team in MAC play that was ranked higher than 79th in total offense and 7 of their conference opponents ranked 100th or lower in total offense. Wyoming played the much tougher schedule and beat solid bowl non-conference teams Texas Tech and Appalachian State. Veteran Wyoming QB Peasley (2 year starter) had a solid season with 20 TD’s and just 5 interceptions and led the Cowboys to 84 points over their final 2 games. Wyoming is 6-1-1 ATS their last 8 bowl games and we like them to win and cover this one.

#253 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NC State +2.5 over Kansas State, Thursday at 5:45 PM ET - We really like the way this NC State team played down the stretch. We could argue by the end of the season this was the 2nd best team in the ACC behind FSU. The Wolfpack won 6 of their last 7 games including beating bowl teams UNC (by 19), Clemson (by 7), Miami (by 14), and Virginia Tech (by 7). The Pack also covered 6 of their last 7 games to close out the season. Their only 3 losses came at the hands of Notre Dame, Louisville, and Duke which was their only real clunker this season. Veteran QB Armstrong, transfer from UVA, lost his job midway through the season but gained it back and was terrific down the stretch completing 70% of his passes for 6 TDs (0 interceptions) over the last 3 games also adding over 200 yards rushing in those 3 games. NCSU has some opt outs in the transfer portal but the vast majority are not depth chart guys. Most of their starters are playing in this one. The same can’t be said for KSU. The Cats had a solid 8-4 season but they are missing a large amount of key guys for this one. That includes QB Will Howard (2,600 yards passing / 350 yards rushing), 2nd leading rusher Ward, and KSU’s top 2 pass catchers WR Brooks and TE Sinnott. Those 4 players alone have accounted for nearly 5,000 yards this season (passing, receiving, and rushing). On top of that, offensive coordinator Klein has also left the program to become the OC at Texas A&M. We’ll take the team that sits nearly full strength entering this game as a dog. NC state it is.

#248 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State -2 over Texas A&M, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - This game opened A&M favored and has flipped to OSU a small favorite. We agree with the move and still feel there is some value on the Cowboys. A&M has been decimated through opt outs, portal, and in the coaching staff. More than half the Aggies starters won’t play in this game and we’re hearing it could be more as we approach game time. That includes their top 2 QB’s who won’t play in this game leaving 3rd stringer Henderson to start under center. He’s had some experience late in the season in A&M’s last 3 games but had almost zero snaps in his previous 2 seasons at Fresno State. Head coach Jimbo Fisher was fired and OC Petrino left for Arkansas. The Aggies DC Robinson has been in charge of bowl prep and he’s leaving to be the DC at Syracuse as soon as this game is finished. Way too much upheaval for this Texas A&M team to think they’ll be fully focused on this one (players and coaches). OSU is coming off a blowout loss in the Big 12 Championship vs Texas and they lost their bowl game last year so this team is motivated to win. A win would also give them 10 wins for the 8th time in head coach Gundy’s tenure. Speaking of Gundy, he is a veteran to the bowl scene appearing in 16 previous bowl games and has been very successful with an 11-5 SU record. They have almost nobody in the portal of significance and the Cowboys are all in here. A&M just 3-3 their last 3 games and their wins were over Abilene Christian (FCS), Miss State (non bowl team), and South Carolina (non bowl team). In fact, the Aggies beat ONE bowl team all season and that was Auburn way back in September and that was when A&M had everyone on board. Okie State beat solid bowl teams Oklahoma, Kansas State, Kansas, and WVU this season and as we mentioned they will be the motivated team here. Take the Cowboys on Wednesday.

#234 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Jose State -8.5 over Coastal Carolina, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - We give SJSU the situational edge here as they have already played in Hawaii on this field this season rolling over the Rainbows 35-0. That means we expect this to be a business trip for the Spartans rather than a potential vacation. Coastal, on the other hand, is making their first trip to the islands so we wouldn’t be at all surprised if this is more of a “getaway” type situation for the Chanticleers. San Jose State starting QB Cordiero should have plenty of motivation as well returning to his home state where he played HS football and was the starting QB for Hawaii before transferring. These 2 teams are both 7-5 entering this bowl game but SJSU played the tougher schedule with all 5 losses coming vs bowl teams including Pac 12 opponents USC and Oregon State. Down the stretch the Spartans were fantastic winning 6 straight games with 5 of those wins coming by double digits. Their only tight games was in the regular season finale where they beat UNLV on the road 37-31, a Rebel team that played in the MWC Championship game. Despite the fairly close final score, San Jose led that game by 20 points with just over 6:00 minutes remaining in the game. Coastal Carolina has had many more opt outs in this game (19 in the transfer portal one of the highest of any bowl team) including starting QB McCall and his backup Guest. 3rd stringer Vasko, a redshirt freshman, did start their final 3 of their final 4 games when the first 2 QB’s were injured but he’s still very inexperienced compared to SJSU starter Cordiero who has thrown for 12,000 career yards and 87 TD’s. The Spartans seem to be highly motivated to get this win after finishing in a 3 way tie for the Mountain West title but were left out of the Championship game which were determined by computer rankings. “We’re going into this game and we want to win,” senior safety Tre Jenkins said. “Not even win close. We want to dominate. Especially because we just got a bad taste in our mouth not going to the (Mountain West Championship).” This SJSU offense averaged 39 PPG over their last 6 and we think they roll over a decimated Coastal Carolina team that had to make the long trip from Myrtle Beach SC to the islands.

#219 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Central Florida -4.5 over Georgia Tech, Friday at 6:30 PM ET - Both teams are 6-6 on the season but we feel this UCF team is undervalued and better than their record. Half of their losses this season came with starting QB Plumlee out with an injury. They were just 1-3 SU when Plumlee was sidelined and the only win during that stretch was vs an FCS team. The Knights outgained their opponents by +100 YPG on the season and even vs bowl teams they were +31 YPG. That was mainly in a very tough Big 12 Conference. Georgia Tech played in the weaker ACC and was outgained on the season. UCF had the stronger strength of schedule and had the much better key numbers overall with a +85 point differential (GT was +8), a +100 YPG differential (GT was -10) and a +1.3 YPP differential (GT was dead even). And those numbers included the games that Plumlee was on the shelf or we’d be looking at an even more lopsided situation in the stats. We’re also getting a massive strength vs weakness situation in this game in favor of the Golden Knights. They run the ball for an average of 233 YPG (4th in the nation) on 5.7 YPC (5th in the nation). Plumlee being healthy at QB is a huge part of that success. They are facing a Tech defense that allows 225 YPG rushing (131st out of 133 teams) on 5.4 YPG (130th). This game is also being played in Tampa, Florida which obviously benefits UCF. The opt outs and portals are fairly minimal on each side however 2 of the bigger transfers are on the Georgia Tech defense with their top CB and top DE out. We like UCF to win this one by at least a TD.

#202 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Old Dominion -3 over Western Kentucky, Monday at 2:30 PM ET - This WKY beat only 1 bowl team all season long (South Florida) and now they’ve been decimated by the transfer portal including nearly their entire starting offensive line opting to move on. There is now talk that starting QB Reed may also sit this game out but nothing definitive on that yet. If it happens this line will go up so play it now at -2.5 (line as of Friday). Even when they had their entire team in tact, the Hilltoppers were 1-7 SU vs bowl teams, were outscored by an average of 12 PPG in those games and outgained by nearly 130 YPG. With all the turnover we’re not sure this team is all that excited to be here. ODU, on the other hand, is thrilled to be in this bowl game and fought like crazy to get here. They played a solid schedule with 10 bowl teams and they won 4 of those games. In their home finale, a game they needed for bowl eligibility, the Monarchs trailed Georgia State 19-0 at half and fought back for a 25-24 win. They’ve only been in 2 bowl games in their history, the most recent a few years ago in 2021. We expected ODU to control the trenches in this game even before WKY lost nearly their entire offensive line. The Monarchs rushed for an impressive 183 YPG vs bowl teams and they are facing a Hilltopper defense that ranks 123rd at stopping the run and vs bowl teams they allowed 243 YPG on the ground. Meanwhile Western barely averages 100 YPG rushing and ODU’s defense allowed just 3.4 YPC vs other bowl teams. Old Dominion played the tougher schedule, the 2 teams had very similar YPG & YPP differential, and the Monarchs team is more in tact right now when compared to Western Kentucky. We’ll lay the small number in this one.

#207 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Mexico State -3.5 over Fresno State, Saturday at 5:45 PM ET - NMSU has been a cover machine this season with a spread record of 10-3-1. Their head coach, Jerry Kill (former Minnesota head coach), has done a masterful job including keeping his team motivated late in the season when they really didn’t have anything to play for. The Aggies final 2 games of the season were “meaningless” so to speak as they had already locked up a spot in the CUSA Championship game and were bowl eligible. In their final 2 regular season games they beat Auburn on the road 31-10 as 24+ point underdogs. It wasn’t flukey at all as they outgained the Tigers by 200 yards and ran the ball for 213 yards on the SEC defense! The week after was a PERFECT letdown spot playing a solid Jacksonville State team with the CUSA Title game on deck and having just beaten Auburn on the road. They won that game as well never trailing and outgaining Jax St by 122 yards. Impressive to say the least. The Aggies did lose in the CUSA to an undefeated Liberty team but even in that game NMSU put up 500 total yards in a game that was tied in the 4th quarter. This game is in Albuquerque so a semi home game for the Aggies who are thrilled to be here. We’re not so sure Fresno feels the same way. This game was undefeated in early October and won 7 of their first 8 games and had Mountain West title hopes on their minds. They tanked down the stretch losing 3 in a row to close out the season and getting topped ATS in all 3 games by a combined 73 points! Two of those losses came vs a pair of teams that finished the year with 4-8 records, New Mexico and San Diego State by 8 and 15 points respectively. Their head coach Jeff Tedford will not be coaching in this bowl game and they have a couple of key injuries on the offensive and defensive lines. NMSU should control the trenches here as their running game averages over 200 YPG on 5.8 YPC (4th in the country) facing an Bulldog defense that ranks 98th vs the run. The Aggies average 7.0 YPP on the season (9th nationally) and they have a YPP differential of +1.0 compared to Fresno who is dead even in that category (5.5 YPP offense / 5.5 YPP defense). New Mexico State is absolutely the more motivated team here and we like them to cover this number.

#321 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisville +1.5 over Florida State, Saturday at 8 PM ET- Florida State struggled last week @ Florida but knocked off the Gators 24-15 in a game they trailed 12-0 late in the 2nd quarter. Despite the win the Noles were outgained in the game and had only 90 yards rushing on 2.9 YPC compared to 146 yards rushing for the Gators. In their first game after losing starting QB Travis the offense was not impressive. 2nd string QB Rodemaker was underwhelming completing less than 50% of his passes for only 134 yards vs a team that didn’t even qualify for a bowl game. He is dealing with a concussion issue and may not play in this game, if so FSU has 2 very inexperienced QB’s behind Rodemaker. Louisville’s defense as a whole is very good (top 20 nationally) but their run defense is the strength of that unit allowing only 96 YPG on 3.3 YPC (12th best run defense in the country). If FSU struggles to run as they did vs Florida, that puts this game on the back of Rodemaker which will make it tough. The Cards are coming off a loss vs in state rival Kentucky getting outscored 17-7 in the 4th quarter losing 38-31. U of L outgained the Wildcats 403 to 289 in that loss but had 3 turnovers, which led directly to 10 Kentucky points. The Cats also had a 100 yard kick return for TD which was too much to overcome. The Cards are 10-2 on the season and in their 2 losses they outgained their opponents by a combined 833 to 577. These 2 have played almost identical strength of schedule and their YPG differential is nearly the same. The difference is FSU did their damage for all but 1 game with their high level QB Travis under center. With him out, we give Louisville the edge here. As an undefeated team that absolutely had to win this game to have any consideration for the CFP, the Seminoles have all the pressure on them in this game. We like the Cards in Charlotte on Saturday night.

#305 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Oregon -9.5 over Washington, Saturday at 8 PM ET - There is a reason the team that has 1 loss on the season is favored by nearly double digits over the undefeated team. On top of that, the favored team in this game lost to the undefeated team this year yet still is a hefty chalk. We’ve been saying for weeks this Washington team is trending down and has been since they beat Oregon 36-33 back in mid October. The Huskies have now been outgained in 5 of their last 7 games including last week’s 24-21 home win over Washington State. The Huskies needed a last second FG to pull that one off and they barely had 300 total yards of offense vs a Wazzu defense that came into the game 83rd nationally in total defense. Even in their win over the Ducks this season, Washington had 7 fewer first downs and they were outgained by 125 yards and that was when the Huskies were clicking on all cylinders. They are just 2-6 ATS their last 8 games and the defense has fallen all the way to 84th nationally allowing over 400 total YPG. They’ve won 1 game in Pac 12 play by more than 10 points so this team has been flirting with disaster but remains undefeated. Meanwhile the Ducks defense ranks in the top 15 nationally and has allowed 19 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. Since their loss to Washington, the Ducks have won 6 in a row with 5 of those coming by at least 14 points. Despite having 1 less win than UW in Pac 12 play (Washington 9-0 and Oregon 8-1) the Ducks point differential in league play is +225 compared to +72 for Washington! Oregon also averages over 100 YPG more than Washington in conference play while allowing over 100 less than the Huskies in Pac 12 games. Oregon is the much better and more complete team right now and with 1 loss already, if they get a chance to pour it on they will do just that in their last attempt to make College Football’s Final 4. No holding back in this one. We like the Ducks by double digits.

#233 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville State -2.5 over New Mexico State, Saturday at 4 PM ET - This is a really solid situational spot for Jacksonville State. The Gamecocks are not eligible for a bowl game this year so you can expect them to treat this as their bowl game. They are facing an NMSU team that has already qualified for the CUSA Championship game next weekend where they will be facing Liberty. On top of that, New Mexico State is coming off a HUGE upset last weekend beating Auburn (maybe caught Tigers looking ahead to Alabama this week?) on the road as a 25 point dog. To add fuel to the fire, JSU, because they joined the conference this year is not eligible to play in the CUSA Championship. If they were, this game would be for a spot in that game with both teams at 6-1 in league play and because of that you can bet this is a huge statement game for JSU. Add that up and this is a prime letdown spot for the Aggies looking ahead to next week’s Championship game. JSU played arguably their best game of the season last week beating La Tech 56-17 and outgained the Bulldogs 628 to 269. NMSU’s QB Pavia is banged up and they rely heavily on their running game which could be a problem in this game. JSU ranks 19th nationally allowing only 106 YPG and 4th nationally allowing 2.7 YPC. On the other side of the ball JSU averages almost 250 YPG on the ground (3rd in the nation) and they are facing a Aggie defense that ranks 41st defending the run and 61st in YPC allowed. There is a reason the road team is favored over the team playing in the CUSA Championship Game next week. We like JSU to win by more than a FG here.

#168 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue -4.5 over Indiana, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Both these teams step into this game with a 3-8 record, however our power ratings have IU as the lowest rated team in the Big 10 and Purdue 3 points better on a neutral site. We’re getting them at basically that number at home on Saturday. Purdue is off a loss @ NW but they played that game without starting QB Card and he is expected back for this one. Even without Card, the Boilermakers were +9 first downs and +114 yards in that loss. What’s been impressive about the Purdue offense as of late is their running game. They have now rushed for over 300 yards in each of their last 2 games and the week prior to that they actually outrushed Michigan in their loss in Ann Arbor. They should have a big edge here in the trenches vs an Indiana team that ranks 107th running the ball and 120th in YPC. IU has lost 6 of their last 7 games with their only win coming at home vs Wisconsin with the Badgers playing their backup QB. And the Hoosiers were outgained in that win vs the Badgers by 80 yards but Wisconsin was -2 in turnovers. Despite the records being equal, Purdue has the better numbers vs nearly the same strength of schedule. The Boilers have the better point differential YPG differential and YPP differential. They have also covered 6 in a row vs the Hoosiers. Last year Purdue was -10.5 on the road vs IU (Purdue won by 14) and now we’re getting them at home right around a FG favorite. The Boilers lost to Michigan, Ohio State, and Wisconsin at home however when facing lower tier Big 10 opponents (Illinois & Minnesota) they won by scores of 44-19 and 49-30. We like Purdue to win & cover at home on Saturday.

#185 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UTSA +3.5 over Tulane, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - These teams are both 7-0 in conference play and the winner of this game will move onto play on the AAC Championship game. Tulane has a few other options to make it to that game if they lose here but UTSA does not. We really like the way UTSA is playing right now and we also feel Tulane has been trending down for the last 4 or 5 weeks. The Roadrunners have won 7 straight games and they are 5-1-1 ATS during that stretch. Their offense has been rolling to say the least scoring at least 34 points in each of those 7 wins and topping 40 points 4 times. Tulane remains overvalued covering only 2 of their last 8 games and they’ve struggled with some of the AAC’s worst teams. Prior to winning and covering vs a bad FAU team last week, the Green Wave beat Tulsa by 2 (as 24.5 point favorites), beat ECU by 3 (as 17 point favorites), beat Rice by 2 (as 10 point favorites), and topped North Texas by 7 (as 20 point favorites). Their record remains great but this team is primed to be knocked off. On Friday they face the best team they’ve seen since losing by 17 at home vs Ole Miss back in September. Their offense is struggling not scoring more than 24 points in any of their last 3 games and 2 of those games were vs defenses ranked 90th and 129th nationally. We have UTSA rated as the better team and we’re getting more than a FG. When comparing the key stats in AAC play only, despite both teams having 7-0 records, UTSA has a point differential of +132 while Tulane’s point differential is +52. The Roadrunners are also +100 YPG and +1.4 YPP in conference play compared to the Green Wave who are +59 YPG and +0.5 YPP. UTSA has been a dog just once this season and that was @ Tennessee. They haven’t lost a game since September and 2 of their 3 losses this season came with star QB Harris (4 year starter with 11,600 passing yards and 91 TD’s in his career) out of the lineup with an injury. UTSA is undervalued right now and we like them to win this game and move onto the AAC Championship game.

#430 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Jose State -14.5 over San Diego State, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - We were on the Spartans last week as they rolled over a very solid Fresno State team 42-18 and we expect more of the same on Saturday. San Jose State is 5-5 and they need one more win for bowl eligibility. They are much better than their .500 record as their losses have come at the hands for USC, Oregon State, Air Force, Toledo, and Boise State and those teams have a combined record of 38-15! Because of that tough early slate for the Spartans, they are still undervalued as we speak having covered 7 of their last 8 games. They’ve won 4 straight in blowout fashion, including rolling over an 8-1 Fresno State team last Saturday as we mentioned. The Spartans have beaten those 4 opponents by a combined score of 171 to 63 and outgained those teams 1,830 to 1,160. They already have one of the top QB’s in the Mountain West in Chevan Cordeiro (11,400 career passing yards and 81 TD’s) and now their running game is clicking on all cylinders with over 1,000 yards over the last 4 games. Last week they completely dominated the line of scrimmage rushing for 313 yards to just 83 for Fresno. That was vs a Bulldog defense that was allowing just 125 YPG rushing and now SJSU faces a San Diego State defense that ranks 111th vs the run. SDSU has been a huge disappointment this season and last week’s loss @ Colorado State knocked them out of bowl contention with a current record of 3-7. Now on the road for the 2nd straight week, we may not see a lot of fight out of this Aztec team. They are getting outgained by 100 YPG and by 1.0 YPP on the season. The SDSU offense ranks 112th in total offense and 116th in scoring and they are going to try and keep up with a team that has averaged 43 PPG over their last 4? We don’t thinks so. Another easy win for SJSU who is also looking for revenge after losing to the Aztecs last season as a favorite.

#402 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State +7.5 over Texas, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Texas has been playing a number of tight games as of late with 4 of their last 5 decided by a TD or less. Their last 2 road games have gone to the wire winning by just 7 @ Houston as a 23.5 point favorite and winning by 3 last week @ TCU as a 13 point favorite. The Horns have covered only once in their last 5 games and they’ll have all they can handle here vs an ISU team that has had their number. Iowa State has won 3 of the last 4 season vs Texas with their only loss coming @ UT last year 24-21 as a 16 point dog. ISU had over 400 yards in the loss and outgained Texas in the process. The Cyclones are also playing very well right now winning 5 of their last 7 games with their only losses during that stretch coming @ Oklahoma and vs Kansas by a final of 28-21. Texas took huge blow in last week’s tight win @ TCU losing all everything RB Brooks (1,100 rushing yards and 10 TD’s) to an injury and he’ll be out for the rest of the year. The Clones are playing their home finale here with some solid momentum after rolling @ BYU 45-13 last week. They have a top 25 defense and head coach Matt Campbell has proven he knows how to defend the potent Longhorn attack not allowing Texas to top 24 points in any of their last 6 meetings. Speaking of Campbell, he’s been lights out as a Big 12 underdog with a 28-11 ATS mark in that spot including 11-3 ATS when getting points at home in league play. This is a very dangerous game for Texas and we like Iowa State to stay within this number and have a shot at the upset.

#228 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Jose State -2.5 over Fresno State, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET - Fresno is more than ripe to get upset in this game. There is a reason that the 8-1 Bulldogs (ranked 25th in the Coaches Poll) are a 1 point dog vs a San Jose State team that steps into this game with a 4-5 record. First off, San Jose State has played the tougher schedule with their losses coming at the hands for USC, Oregon State, Air Force, Toledo, and Boise State and those teams have a combined record of 35-12! Because of that tough early slate for the Spartans, they are still undervalued as we speak having covered 6 of their last 7 games. They’ve won 3 straight in blowout fashion, including 2 on the road, beating those 3 opponents by a combined score of 129 to 45 and outgaining those teams 1,370 to 853. They already have one of the top QB’s in the Mountain West in Chevan Cordeiro (11,400 career passing yards and 81 TD’s) and now their running game is clicking on all cylinders with 727 yards over the last 3 games. Despite their losing record, the Spartans are +40 YPG, +0.5 YPP, and +50 point differential on the season. They are much better than their record. Fresno has only 1 loss but they are slipping right now and lucky to get by with their wins in recent weeks. They’ve now been outgained in 4 straight games and their QB Keene is nowhere close to 100% healthy with a knee issue. The Bulldogs are losing in the trenches getting outrushed in 4 straight games and not reaching 100 yards rushing in 2 of those contests. We were on Boise State last week @ Fresno and the Broncos had more first downs, outgained the Bulldogs BOTH on the ground and through the air. The huge turning point in that game was an FSU 95 yard kickoff return as time expired in the 1st half taking the wind out of Boise’s sails in the 37-30 game. Now they travel to San Jose and they catch the Spartans off a bye week and playing their best football of the season. We like SJSU to control this game in the trenches and win at home on Saturday night.

#195 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tennessee -2.5 over Missouri, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Tennessee should be fresh here coming off a 59-3 home blowout over UConn. The Vols were up 35-3 at half and they were able to get their starters plenty of rest in the 2nd half including QB Milton who only played in the 1st half. Meanwhile Mizzou was playing in a physical game @ Georgia, a game the Tigers lost 30-21. They had a bye week leading into their game vs UGA so they put 2 full weeks of prep and emotion into that game and now might be a bit flat here. We really like the Vols edge on both lines of scrimmage with the Tennessee offense averaging 228 YPG on the ground (3rd nationally) on 5.8 YPC (5th) while the UT defense allows just 97 YPG rushing (14th nationally) on 2.9 YPC (8th). The Tigers have been far from dominant at home despite their 5-1 mark as a host. The top 2 teams they’ve played here were LSU, who beat Missouri by 10, and Kansas State who lost on a 61 yard FG as time expired. In other home games the Tigers struggled to beat Middle Tennessee State by 4 and Memphis by 7. Mizzou QB Cook is very solid but we expect he’ll be under pressure again this week just as he was last week when he completed less than 50% of his passes vs UGA. The Tennessee front 7 is very good and they are top 30 in both QB sacks per game and sack percentage while the Mizzou offensive line is outside the top 45 in both of those stats. There is also a chance Cook’s #1 target WR Burden (960 yards receiving and 7 TD’s) may not play here as he has been banged up for weeks and was injured during the Georgia game last week. Burden is easily the Tigers top offensive weapon. On the season Tennessee is +147 YPG, +1.9 YPP differential, and +147 point differential. For the season Missouri is +89 YPG, +1.2 YPP, and +76 point differential. Tennessee is simply the better team, in a better situation, and with the line where it is they just have to win this game outright to most likely get a cover.

#425 ASA TOP PLAY ON Boise State +3 over Fresno State, Saturday at 10 PM ET - We are on the Broncos plus the points when they travel to Fresno to take on the Bulldogs. Fresno is a ‘false favorite’ here with their 7-1 SU record on the season. The Bulldogs average margin of victory is +14.4PPG but that number is inflated after a 53-0 win over Kent and 29-0 win over Arizona State. Kent is one of the worst teams in football. ASU was without their starting QB, in a new system and had 8 TO’s in 13 possessions. According to our rankings, Fresno State has played the 97th easiest schedule in college football. Boise State is a misleading 4-4 SU this season and could conceivably have 6 straight wins with two of their losses coming by 1-point and 3-points. In their last three games they beat a surging San Jose State team, lost on a last second pass to Colorado State and then beat Wyoming badly last week 32-7. The Broncos dominated a Wyoming team that Fresno recently played and lost to by 5-points. We tend to favor strong rushing teams and Boise fits the bill with a unit that averages 195-rushing YPG at 5.1YPC. Fresno boasts some strong rushing statistics, but they’ve faced a weak rushing schedule with everyone other than UNLV ranked 70th or worse. Last week FSU was outplayed by UNLV, outrushed 156-56 but managed to win by 7-points. Boise State as an underdog since 2021 is 5-2-1 ATS. The Broncos get revenge here after losing in the conference championship game a year ago to this Fresno team.

#380 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -3 over Kansas, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Great spot to fade Kansas who is coming off their biggest program win in decades topping Oklahoma at home last week 38-33. KU scored their game winning TD with 55 seconds remaining and it was storm the field time after that win. Now the Jayhawks head on the road where they are 0-3 ATS this season with their only outright win coming @ Nevada, one of the worst teams in CFB, by just 7 points. ISU is peaking right now. They’ve won and covered 4 of their last 5 games including a double digit home win over a very solid TCU team and a 7 point home win vs one of the hottest teams in the country, Oklahoma State. The Cyclones are actually tied atop the Big 12 with Oklahoma, Ok State, Texas, and KSU with a 4-1 record. Their offense is playing well scoring 27 or more in 4 of their last 5 and the Cyclones have a big edge defensively in this game. ISU sits in the top 25 in total defense and YPP allowed while Kansas ranks outside the top 100 in both of those key stats. KU thrives on their running game as they only attempt 25 passes per game (114th nationally) but they are facing an ISU defense that allows only 123 YPG rushing on 3.7 YPC. Iowa State’s running game struggled early in the season but over their last 3 they averaged nearly 170 YPG on the ground and they are facing a KU defense that ranks outside the top 100 in YPG allowed on the ground and YPC allowed. KU clinched bowl eligibility last week in their win vs OU and they were ranked for the first time EVER in the current BCS poll. Huge letdown here and ISU continues to play well and wins at home.

#317 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston College +3 over Syracuse, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - BC has quietly been playing very well over the last month plus with 4 straight wins. In those games their running game, now ranked 14th in the country, has been dominant, rolling up 246, 308, 321,and 203 yards rushing in those wins. That should continue vs a Syracuse team that is in a complete free fall. The Orange have lost 4 straight games and they’ve allowed an average of 210 YPG on the ground in those losses. Offensively in those games the Cuse put up 100, 92, 124, and 0 yards on the ground. Yes that’s correct in their most recent game vs Virginia Tech the Orange lost 38-10 and were outrushed 318 to 0! More concerning is they were coming off a bye leading into that Va Tech game last week and they were dominated 6.7 to 3.2 on a YPP basis. It looks like Syracuse might be done if they can’t show up with some heart and effort coming off a bye after 3 straight losses. They continue to be overvalued and have been destroyed ATS as well losing the last 4 to the number by a combined 86 points. BC QB Castellanos had an illness last week vs UConn and didn’t play very well but prior to that he had been really solid rushing for 342 yards with 6 rushing TD’s the previous 3 games. He’s also been solid passing the ball with 1,600 yards through the air and 11 TD’s. He’s going to be a big problem for this Cuse defense that has allowed at least 31 points in each of their last 4 games. The dog has covered 10 of the last 12 BC games dating back to last year and we’ll call for it again. We know this game is in Syracuse but the wrong team is favored in our opinion.

#313 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wake Forest +12.5 over Duke, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Duke’s offense has gone in the tank since the injury to QB Leonard and we see no way they should be laying 10+ points with that offense right now. Leonard is still playing but not close to 100% since his injury at the end of the Notre Dame game. Since that game, the Blue Devils have scored a total of 37 offensive points in 3 games and they’ve lost 2 of those 3 games. Because of his leg injury, Leonard has had his most positive attribute taken away and that is his running ability from the QB position. In the last 2 games he’s rushed for a total of 26 yards on 11 carries for 2.3 YPC. Prior to his injury, he averaged over 6.0 YPC. Wake’s offense is not great shakes either but they shouldn’t have to score much in this one to stay within this number. The Deacs lean on the running game and they run the ball a lot (42 attempts per game – 17th most nationally). Duke’s defensive weakness is vs the run where they rank 77th allowing 149 YPG. Offensively for the Blue Devils, they’ve really struggled to throw the ball especially now with Leonard banged up. They are 116th in YPG passing and they need to run the ball well to be successful offensively. The WF defense isn’t very good vs the pass but that shouldn’t hurt them here. The Deacs are solid vs the rush allowing opponents just 128 YPG on the ground on 3.9 YPC. Historically in this cross state rivalry, Duke has topped Wake Forest by double digits just ONCE since 2000. The projected score based on the spread and total is right around Duke 28-16. We just don’t see this Blue Devil offense that’s barely scored more than that in the last 3 games getting to that number. Wake keeps this close enough to cover.

#303 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Northern Illinois -5 over Central Michigan, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - This game opened with NIU as a 3 point favorite and has jumped to -5 and we agree with that move. We have the Huskies closer to a 7 point chalk in our power ratings so we still feel there is value on the road favorite. CMU has 2 MAC wins this year vs Akron and EMU and both were tight games with the Chippewas winning by 7 and 3 respectively. Those are 2 of the worst teams in the country both rated outside the top 115 in our power ratings. CMU’s 2 MAC losses came at the hands of Buffalo & Ball State, who are both ranked outside the top 100 and have a combined record of 5-11. NIU has played the much tougher MAC slate and has a record of 3-1 and they are very close to being undefeated in league play with their only loss coming by 2 points vs Toledo, the best team in the conference. The Huskies beat Ohio by 10 points as well who is rated as the 3rd best team in the MAC. Northern & CMU have faced 2 common opponents in league play (ECU & Akron) and while Central beat those 2 teams by a combined 10 points, Northern Illinois beat them by a combined 48 points. We have the advantage at QB and on defense in this game with Northern. Senior QB Lombardi is a veteran and in MAC play he’s completed over 63% of his passes in all 4 games with 5 TD’s and 0 interceptions. CMU starting QB Bauer, who was the back up to start the season, is completing 58% of his passes this season and on MAC play vs 4 very poor teams he has 4 TD’s and 6 interceptions. Defensively NIU ranks in the top 25 nationally in YPG & YPP allowed. Central Michigan ranks 91st and 122nd in those 2 categories. On the season NIU has a +0.4 YPP differential, +32 YPG differential, and a +24 point differential. CMU has a -1.4 YPP differential, -70 YPG differential, and a -62 point differential. The Huskies by at least a TD in this one.

#193 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ohio State -14.5 over Wisconsin, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Wisconsin’s going to have all kinds of trouble moving the ball and putting points in the board in this game. Versus the 2 best defenses they’ve faced this season, Iowa & Rutgers, they scored a total of 23 offensive points in those 2 games while averaging just 4.4 YPP. Last week vs a below average Illinois team UW was down 21-7 entering the 4th quarter and scored 18 unanswered points to pick up a tight win. Their back up QB Locke is now under center for Wisconsin after starter Mordecai broke his hand in the Iowa game. While Locke was solid in his first start last week vs an Illinois defense that ranks 81st in total defense. Now they face the best defense they’ve seen this season, but a longshot in our opinion, ranking 2nd in YPP allowed (3.8 YPP) and 3rd nationally in scoring defense (10.5 PPG allowed). The Bucks held a very good PSU offense, who was averaging 41 PPG entering last week’s game in Columbus, to only 12 points (with their final TD coming with 29 seconds left in the game) on just 3.5 YPP. They held PSU’s rushing attack to just 1.9 YPC and if they duplicate that on Saturday, Wisconsin is in huge trouble. On the other side OSU had some decent success last week scoring 20 points vs a high level PSU stop unit we have rated much better than Wisconsin’s. The Badgers defense is way down from previous editions with no big playmakers in the front 7. Their run defense ranks 52nd nationally after sitting in the top 10 each of the previous 4 seasons. We’re not sure they’ll be able to hold up in the trenches on either side of the ball. The OSU offense is starting to find their rhythm under new QB McCord as they average 6.6 YPP (25th nationally) and prior to last week’s game vs PSU they had scored at least 35 points in 4 of their previous 5 games. Prior to topping Penn State by 8, the Buckeyes had won each of their previous 3 Big 10 games by at least 20 points. Lay it.

#182 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida +14.5 over Georgia, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - The bottom line here is that Georgia has been overvalued in the betting markets all season long, hence the 1-5-1 ATS record to date. The Bulldogs have played an extremely soft schedule without a quality win on their resume. This team was bound to see a regression this season after heavy losses to the NFL and the loss of their O-coordinator. Georgia has impressive offensive/defensive statistics, ranking top 12 in many of the main categories but again, who have they faced? Not one of the offenses the Bulldogs have faced will be as good as this Gator offense. The best yards per game offense the Dawgs have faced was UAB, the other five FBS teams rank 79th or worst in total O. The same can be said about the misleading Georgia offensive statistics. They have faced four defenses that rank 84th or worse, three of which are 119th or worse. Now the Bulldogs will face a Florida defense that is 36th in total D allowing 345YPG. Florida has a top 10 rushing D in terms of success rate and can limit the Dawgs rushing attack without committing more players to the box. The Gators have two quality foes on their resume as they faced Utah in the opening game of the season and also hosted Tennessee. Florida is in the upper third statistically in most offensive categories and thrives in their passing game. That may be surprising with former Wisconsin QB Mertz under center. But Mertz has played well for the Gators with 12 TD’s to just 2 INT’s this season while completing 76% of his attempts. Mertz is currently the top rated QB in the SEC when it comes to 3rd downs. Mertz shouldn’t face too much pressure either as the Bulldogs rank outside the top 100 in pass rush. Georgia will be without their best offensive weapon in TE Bowers which will make things difficult for QB Beck playing his first big away from home (neutral site game). With two losses this is the Gators Super Bowl, and we like them to keep this close throughout.

#101 ASA TOP PLAY ON New Mexico State +2.5 over Louisiana Tech, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We like to take a strong look at underdogs that have a better rushing attack and we expect to control the trenches. That’s what we have here. La Tech is a poor rushing team that has been outgained on the ground in every game but one this season. If we take out their game vs FCS opponent Northwestern State, the Bulldogs only average 109 YPG rushing (108th nationally) on only 3.5 YPC. On the other side of the ball their rush defense is poor as well ranking 119th in the country allowing 200 YPG on the ground 5.0 YPC. That’s despite facing a fairly easy slate of rush offenses including 3 teams outside the top 100 in rushing. La Tech has faced 2 teams ranked inside the top 50 in rushing this year, Nebraska and North Texas, and those 2 teams rolled up 312 and 249 yards on the ground respectively. Tuesday they host a NM State team that ranks 2nd in the nation averaging 6.1 yards per carry and puts up over 200 YPG on the ground. Despite their success on the ground, the Aggies are not one dimensional as they pass for over 235 YPG as well and average a whopping 7.0 YPP which is 5th in the nation behind only Washington, Oregon, LSU, and USC. The Aggies record is 5-3 yet they’ve outgained all but 1 opponent (Liberty who is 7-0) on a YPP basis. NM State has a YPP differential of +1.3 and they are well coached under former Minnesota head coach Jerry Kill. Their defense isn’t great, but it’s respectable allowing 5.7 YPP. Since their bye in late September, NMSU has won 3 in a row by an average margin of +17 PPG covering all 3. La Tech has been a home favorite only 7 times since the start of the 2020 season and they have covered only 2 of those games. During that same time span they have played 15 home games (FBS only) and they have a SU record of 7-8 in those games. We like the dog to win this game outright.

#348 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida Atlantic +2.5 over UTSA, Saturday at 6 PM ET - UTSA is still getting priced too high in the market in our opinion. Our power ratings have FAU as a slight favorite at home in this game. The Roadrunners were very good last season with an 11-3 overall record and it seems the oddsmakers are still relying on last year’s results to set numbers this season. UTSA is just 3-3 on the year and only 2-4 ATS. They did miss their starting QB Harris for 2 games this season but the offense hasn’t been great with him in the lineup. The Roadrunners are coming off back to back deceivingly easy wins which sets this one up nicely. They beat Temple and UAB handily each of the last 2 weeks but UTSA was outgained in both of those games. Those 2 opponents have a combined 4-10 record and turned the ball over 5 times in those 2 games (UTSA had 1 turnover). This FAU team is also 3-3 on the season but they’ve played the tougher schedule already facing road games @ Clemson and @ Illinois. The Owls are improving and seem to be peaking under new HC Herman (former Texas head coach) and they are finally looking comfortable with his new schemes. Since getting rolled @ Clemson in September, the Owls have covered 3 straight and won the last 2 SU vs Tulsa and South Florida. Last week they played their most complete game of the season rolling over a decent USF team who lost to Bama this year by only 7 points. In last week’s game, FAU was a 2 point dog on the road @ South Florida and won 56-14 putting up almost 600 yards on 7.5 YPP. QB Richardson, former Central Michigan starter, took over for an injured starter (Thompson) after the Clemson loss and he’s impressed with almost 800 yards passing, a 67% completion rate, and 5 TD’s in those 3 starts. He’s been getting help from his running game as well with FAU topping 200 yards rushing in each of the last 2 games. The Owls have played the strong strength of schedule and still have a better YPP differential and point differential when compared to UTSA. This Florida Atlantic team is playing their best football of the season and getting points at home vs a UTSA team that has been throwing up some false final scores as of late. Take the points with the home team.

#368 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Northern Illinois -12 over Eastern Michigan, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We’ve been anti EMU all season long and for good reason. The Eagles have a 4-3 record but that record is as deceiving as it gets. Their wins have come vs Howard (FCS), Kent (we have power rated 133rd – last in FBS), UMass (power rated 129th) and Ball State (power rated 121st). In last week’s 28-14 win vs Kent, the Eagles were actually outgained 343 to 218 by a Golden Flashes team that was getting outgained by an average of 221 to 460 coming into that game. EMU benefitted from 3 Kent turnovers including a pick 6. That’s vs a Kent team that had been outscored 202-42 in their 6 games vs FBS opponents this season. So EMU was facing what was the worst team in college football, they were outplayed by a lot on the stat sheet, and it was a home game for Eastern Michigan. The Eagles have been outgained in each of their wins (except Howard) by teams we have rated in the bottom 10 to 15 in college football. They are now on the road vs a NIU team that has been playing very well. Last week the Huskies beat a very good Ohio team (rated 2nd best team in the MAC) by 10 points and outgained them by +1.2 YPP. A week prior to that they roasted Akron 55-14 and before that lost @ Toledo (#1 team in the MAC) by just 2 points. The Husky defense has been solid all year ranking in the top 25 in both total defense and YPP allowed. They will have no problem whatsoever vs an Eastern Michigan offense that has been brutal all season long. The Eagles rank outside the top 115 in scoring offense, total offense, rushing offense, and passing offense. NIU has played the much tougher schedule to date and the Huskies have a +0.5 YPP differential while EMU has a -1.4 YPP differential. Northern controlled the trenches last week vs a top notch Ohio defense (130 yards rushing to 95 for Ohio) and they should own the line of scrimmage again this week. The Huskies rushing attack has really kicked it in gear over the last 4 games averaging 215 YPG on the ground and they are facing an EMU defense that allows over 200 YPG rushing this season. Kent, who was averaging 79 YPG rushing entering last week, had 163 yards on the ground vs this Eagle defense. NIU is better, and quite a bit better, in every facet of the game. We’re getting a decent line here (lower than it should be) because EMU has a faulty record as we discussed. If Eastern wasn’t 9th in the nation in turnover margin (+1 per game) their record would look quite different. This should be a blowout.

#308 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Sam Houston State -5 over Florida International, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Wait a minute. The 0-6 team is favored over the 3-4 team? Not only that, the winless team is favored by more than a FG. Hmmm. We agree SHSU should be favored at home in this one and we’ll side with them here. First these teams are heading in opposite directions right now. FIU had 3 game winning streak back in early to mid September and after that run they have lost 3 straight by a combined score of 99-37. They also failed to cover all 3 of those games by a combined 50 points! The Panthers were in a great spot to pick up a win at home last Thursday facing a bad UTEP team that was down to their 4th string QB. FIU lost that game by 13 points and were outgained by almost 100 yards. Despite their overall record, Sam Houston is 3-2-1 ATS on the season. Their offense was putrid the first 3 games but they faced some tough competition in BYU, Air Force, and Houston. The Bearkats only scored 10 total points in those 3 games. However, over their last 3 games this offense has improved dramatically scoring 57 points and averaging 377 YPG. That improvement should continue here vs an FIU defense that ranks 117th in total defense and 118th in YPP allowed. SHSU has played the much tougher schedule (58th SOS compared to 132nd for FIU) and this is just their 3rd home game of the season. They’ve played quite well in their other 2 home tilts losing to undefeated Air Force 13-3 holding the #1 rushing team in the nation 80 yards and 1.3 YPC below their averaging. In their other home game they lost in OT to Jacksonville State (5-2 record) but the Bearkats were +5 first downs and +40 yards in that game. This team is overdue for a win and they know this is one of the best shots. Look for a great effort and a win and cover from Sam Houston State.

#182 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Air Force -11 over Wyoming, Saturday at 7 PM ET - There is a reason AF is favored by a full 10 points over a Wyoming team that currently has a 5-1 record. The Cowboys have been as lucky as you can get to reach that record this season. They’ve been outgained by an average of 52 YPG and their offense is one of the worst in college football averaging only 325 YPG (114th). They’ve had a favorable schedule with all home games with the exception of their game @ Texas, a 31-10 Wyoming loss, and in that game they caught the Longhorns the week after they beat Alabama on the road. They have not been on the road in full month and we think they’re running into a buzzsaw here. Air Force is 5-0 on the season and they are coming off a bye week. The Falcons rank #1 nationally averaging 330 YPG on the ground and they are facing a Wyoming defense that ranks 76th defending the run and 78th in YPC allowed. They’ve allowed at least 200 yards on the ground in 2 of their last 3 games and we think they’ll struggle to stop the rested Falcons here. The AF offense is humming scoring at least 39 points in every game but one this season. Defensively they’ve been elite ranking in the top 10 nationally in total defense, YPP allowed, rushing YPG allowed, and passing YPG allowed. Wyoming will have trouble keeping up in this game with a poor offense vs that defense. This is also a revenger for Air Force after losing by 3 points @ Wyoming last year as a -16.5 point favorite. The Cowboys are playing for the 7th consecutive week and are off an upset home win over Fresno State (Wyoming was +6 at home in that game). The Falcons have won every game this season by double digits by an average score of 37-12. They have quietly won 19 of their last 22 games with 15 of those wins coming by at least 10 points. Lay it.

#401 ASA TOP PLAY ON Michigan -17.5 over Minnesota, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We see this game playing out very similar to last week’s Michigan win @ Nebraska 45-7. The Husker are actually a better team than Minnesota this year (according to our power ratings) as they dominated the stat sheet @ Minnesota in week 1 but lost 13-10 due to 4 turnovers. Minnesota struggled here last week vs UL Lafayette but won by 11 despite getting outgained 6.7 YPP to 5.3 YPP. ULL held Minnesota to just 347 total yards and the Gophs were lucky to put up 35 points with those yardage numbers. ULL did rush for 180 yards on the Gopher defense which has taken a big step back this season. That’ll be a problem vs the potent Michigan rushing attack that had 249 yards on the ground last week vs a very good Nebraska defense last Saturday. The Wolves were going through the motions their first 3 games off the season which were all easy wins but non-covers. The last 2 weeks vs Big 10 opponents they scored 76 points and held those teams to 14 points combined. Now with their head coach Harbaugh and OC back on the sidelines after missing games early this season due to suspensions, we look for Michigan to roll. Minnesota has played a relatively easy schedule with the best team they played, North Carolina, rolling over the Gophs 31-13 and outgaining them 519 to 303. Their other opponents are Eastern Michigan (bad MAC team), Nebraska (lower tier Big 10 team), Northwestern (lower tier Big 10 team) and UL Lafayette from the Sun Belt. Despite their strength of schedule (62nd) the Gophers have been outgained on the year on both a YPG and YPP basis. Similar to last week’s Michigan game vs Nebraska – Minnesota can’t pass (120th at 149 YPG passing) and you can’t run on Michigan as they are allowing 85 YPG on the ground. Last week a solid rushing team, Nebraska, had 106 yards on the ground and 74 of those came on one run late in the game – the Huskers only TD. On top of that, Minnesota’s top RB Taylor didn’t play last week and it doesn’t look like he’ll be ready for this one. The Wolverines have won 30 of their last 31 regular season games and 25 of those have come by double digits. Michigan can name the score here and we look for a blowout.

#317 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nebraska +3.5 over Illinois, Friday at 8 PM ET - We have Nebraska power rated as the better team in this match up and they are getting just north of the FG. After back to back wins the Huskers were crushed last week at home vs Michigan which wasn’t unexpected as the Wolverines just might be the best team in the country. The Nebraska offense was actually decent averaging 5.9 YPP but only ran 46 offensive snaps to 74 for Michigan. Their defense really impressed us this season but struggled vs one of the top offenses in the country last week. We expect them to bounce back and play very well vs an Illinois offense that ranks 75th nationally in total offense and is averaging just over 21 PPG (105th nationally). After their loss vs Michigan, Cornhusker head coach Matt Rhule held a surprise full pad, full contact practice on Sunday and our word is it was one of their best practices of the season. The Illini were blasted 44-19 @ Purdue last week and that’s a Boiler team that entered that game with only 1 win on the season (by 7 points) vs a bad Va Tech team. Illinois has 2 wins on the season coming by 2 points vs Toledo and by 6 points vs a bad FAU team. We were on the Illini in that game vs FAU and thought it was a perfect spot for them to get back on track vs the Owls who were rolled @ Clemson a week earlier and lost their starting QB in that loss. Illinois was only able to beat FAU 23-17 in a very disappointing performance. Their defense has dropped off drastically this season after losing a number of key players to the NFL. The Illini gave up over 200 yards rushing last week vs Purdue and are giving up 180 YPG on the ground this season (110th). That’s a problem vs a Nebraska offense that is putting up over 200 YPG on the ground (15th nationally) and are continuing with Haaberg at QB who has 255 yards rushing in his 3 starts. Nebraska is much better defensively this season allowing 4.6 YPP (that includes game vs Michigan) compared to the Illini allowing 5.5 YPP. Nebraska really should be 3-2 on the season after completely outplaying Minnesota on the road in week 1 (lost 13-10) with other losses @ Colorado and at home vs Michigan. We give the Huskers a great shot at winning this one outright so we’ll take the points.

#310 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana Tech +6.5 over Western Kentucky, Thursday at 8 PM ET - WKY is overvalued coming into this one and our power ratings have them as just under a 3 point favorite and they opened -7. It has since dropped a bit but still some solid value on the host La Tech. Western Kentucky is coming off a solid 31-10 win over MTSU however the yardage was much closer than than (444 to 373) and the Blue Raiders had 3 turnovers. MTSU left a number of points on the field getting shut out on downs twice inside WKY territory to go along with their turnover problems. It was actually the first time this season the Hilltoppers (3-2 record) have outgained their opponent (minus FCS competition). Western is averaging 382 YPG on the season (76th nationally) while allowing 472 YPG (130th). They rank 106th defensively allowing 6.2 YPP on the season and they have allowed over 500 yards in 3 of their 4 games vs FBS opponents. So we have a team laying nearly a TD on the road despite being poor on defense. Not a great recipe for success. Their offense has also taken a big step back (-130 YPG compared to last year) after losing their OC in the off season to Washington State. La Tech moved to 3-3 on the season after a road win @ UTEP last Saturday. Their offense has been comparable to WKY averaging 376 YPG but the Bulldogs defense is allowing nearly 100 fewer YPG than the Hilltoppers. The host also has the much better rushing attack (153 YPG on the ground to just 98 YPG for WKY) and they are facing a Hilltopper defense that gives up over 200 YPG on the ground. Western is playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks here and on a short week. We’ll take the points with Louisiana Tech at home.

#146 ASA TOP PLAY ON Georgia Southern -6.5 over Coastal Carolina, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Georgia Southern has been very impressive this year under HC Clay Helton (former USC head coach) with a 3-1 record. Their only loss on the season was @ Wisconsin and GSU actually outplayed the Badgers in that one (more first downs & total yardage) but had 6 turnovers (0 for Wisconsin) in that setback. They bounced back nicely after that loss trouncing Ball State on the road 40-3 last Saturday. The Eagles offense has been tough to stop ranking 18th nationally in YPG and 7th in yards passing. Tulsa transfer QB Brin has completed 73% of his passes this year for 1,300 yards in just 4 games. If he can avoid the turnover, the GSU team will be very tough to beat. Brin does have 7 interceptions on the season, but again 5 came in one game vs Wisconsin. The defense has improved dramatically over last season allowing 334 YPG so far this season after allowing over 500 YPG a year ago. Coastal has taken a step back as we expected. They had a turnover on the coaching staff with their head coach moving onto Liberty. The Chanticleers are 2-2 on the season coming off a 30-17 home loss vs Georgia State. Their only 2 wins have come vs FCS Duquesne and Jacksonville State. This will be their first road game in almost a month and GSU has been waiting for this one. The Eagles went to Coastal last year and almost pulled the upset losing 34-30. GSU led by 10 in the 4th quarter in that game but allowed CC to score TD’s on each of their final 3 possessions. If we subtract games vs FCS teams this year, GSU still has a +0.6 YPP differential while Coastal is -0.8 YPP. The Eagles could have easily won on the road last year vs Coastal and we have upgraded GSU this year while the Chanticleers have clearly taken a step back. We’ll side with Georgia Southern at home.

#360 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Illinois -15 over Florida Atlantic, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - The Illini are just 1-2 on the season but they’ve played one of the toughest schedules in the country thus far already facing the best team in the MAC (Toledo), one of the better teams in the Big 12 (Kansas), and a top 10 team (Penn State). Now they take a big step down in competition and we think Bret Bielema and company are ready to paste someone. This looks like that spot as they face an FAU team that hasn’t been able to score points and now will be playing without their starting QB. The Owls have scored a grand total of 2 offensive TD’s in their 2 games vs FBS opponents (Ohio & Clemson) and both of those came last week @ Clemson when the Tigers already had a 41-0 lead and were already looking ahead to their game this week vs FSU. The Owls have averaged a ridiculously bad 3.3 YPP vs those 2 FBS teams which ranks them 132nd nationally (out of 133 teams). The Illinois defense was fantastic last season ranking 4th nationally in total defense and we expected a step back after losing some key players. They are still much better than they’ve shown thus far vs 3 high level offenses and now they get a reprieve and we expect the defense to shut down FAU. Last week they showed quite well holding a very good PSU offense to 4 YPC and 5.9 yards per pass attempt. This will be the Illini’s 3rd home game this season and in their first 2 they looked solid. They topped a very good Toledo team in week 1 and were impressive offensively averaging 6.1 YPP while holding the Rockets to 5.3 YPP. Last week they lost 30-13 here vs Penn State but that was a bit deceiving. The overall and YPP yardage was very close to even in that game. Problem was Illinois was -5 in turnovers and 4 of those giveaways led directly to 20 of PSU’s 30 points. Illinois does have their Big 10 opener @ Purdue on deck but coming off 2 losses we don’t expect them to be peaking ahead here. Bielema has never been afraid to win big vs inferior competition and he knows his team needs some confidence going into conference play. Blowout here.

#308 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Purdue +6 over Wisconsin, Friday at 7 PM ET - We’re not about to lay points on the road with this transitioning Wisconsin team that has struggled with the changes early in the season. Their opening 21 point win over Buffalo is not all that impressive as the Bulls have since lost to FCS Fordham and then were destroyed at home by Liberty. Their lone road game was a 9 point loss @ Washington State and last week they were tied at 7-7 at home vs Georgia Southern at halftime but SIX GSU turnovers allowed Wisconsin to pull away. For the Badgers to be a 20.5 point favorite and only cover by a half point despite being +6 in turnovers is telling. This UW defense is not on par with previous editions. They don’t have any big time playmakers in the front 7 and their pass defense was shredded last weekend vs Georgia Southern for 383 yards through the air. After 3 games this pass defense ranks outside the top 100 in passing YPG allowed and outside the top 90 in opponent completion percentage. Now they face a solid Purdue passing game with Texas transfer QB Card at the helm who has thrown for 825 yards (65.5% completions) in 3 games. Purdue had a deceiving score as well last week due to turnovers but, unlike Wisconsin, they were the team turning the ball over. The Boilers lost to Syracuse but they were -4 in turnover margin while the total yardage was fairly close. We feel we’re getting some line value here as well. We have Syracuse and Wisconsin currently power rated about dead even yet the Badgers are laying 6 points this week and Cuse laid just 2.5 here last Saturday. UW has dominated this series as of late but their defense looks susceptible and the offense is still learning the ropes of their new scheme. We’ll call for this one to go down to the wire so the points should be valuable.

#182 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Troy -2.5 over James Madison, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Troy is back home after getting waxed @ Kansas State last week which wasn’t a big surprise as the Wildcats are one of the better teams in the country. In that loss we were impressed with Troy’s defense as they held a very good KSU offense to 5.7 YPP and on the ground the Cats averaged less than 4.0 YPC. It was a 2 score game early in the 4th quarter when KSU added a few late TD’s to make this score look worse than in probably should have been at 42-13. The Trojans won their first game big over Stephen F Austin (a decent FCS team) despite turning the ball over 4 times they had 523 yards of offense. Now we get last year’s Sun Belt Champs (Troy), who finished 12-2 last season, back at home with a light number. We haven’t been overly impressed with JMU through their first 2 games. They are 2-0 but wins over FCS Bucknell, who has a 5-21 record their last 26 games, and a come from behind win over a bad Virginia team last week. That was a huge win for James Madison taking down the instate big boy UVA but let’s not forget JMU was nearly a TD favorite on the road in that game and won 36-35 on a TD with under 1:00 minute remaining in the game. The Cavs are one of the worst Power 5 teams in the nation and JMU was outplayed in that 1 point win. UVA led that game by double digits in the 4th quarter, outgained the Dukes on a YPP basis, and the Cavs true freshman QB (back up but playing for injured starter) who stands 5’11 and has zero experience threw for 377 yards on the James Madison defense. They put up 35 points on JMU after scoring 10 points in their opener vs Tennessee. UVA averaged 6.5 YPP vs James Madison last weekend after averaging just 3.0 YPP vs the Vols. Looks like we have a big edge defensively with the host here and the Trojans also have a very experienced QB Watson (4 year starter) has thrown for over 7,000 yards in his career. Dating back to early in the 2021 season, Troy has now won 11 of their last 12 home games and we’re more than comfortable laying this small number with them on Saturday.

#131 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LSU -9.5 over Mississippi State, Saturday at 12 PM ET - LSU got a lot of negative publicity for getting rolled in their season opener vs Florida State but they bounced back last week, in what could have been a flat spot vs Grambling, and won big 72-10. Even a closer look at that FSU game tells us the Tigers played pretty well for about 3 quarters before the wheels fell off against what most now consider a top 5 team in the country. That game vs Florida State was tied at 17-17 late in the 3rd quarter and LSU averaged over 7.0 YPP and the total yardage was pretty close with the Noles having a slight advantage. The 21 point FSU win was a bit deceiving. MSU has been underwhelming under new head coach Zach Arnett who was the Bulldogs DC but took over late last year when Mike Leach passed away. Arnett has never been a head coach prior to this so advantage to veteran Brian Kelly and LSU in that regard. MSU’s new offensive coordinator has tried to get away from the full air raid type offense and run the ball more, although it looks like the personnel that was recruited for the air raid doesn’t necessarily fit the new scheme. So far in 2 games, the Bulldogs have run the ball 78 times while attempting only 46 passes. That’s from an MSU team that AVERAGED 49 pass attempts per game last year leading the nation. And it’s not like they’ve been lighting it up on the ground. Last week the Dogs averaged just 3.7 YPC vs an Arizona defense that allowed 5.5 YPC last year ranking 128th nationally. Mississippi State won that game 31-24 in OT but they were outgained by 125 yards, the Dogs were +4 in turnover margin for the game, and it still took OT for them to win that game at home vs a lower tier Pac 12 team. Now they are facing an LSU team that we still have power rated as one of the top 10 teams in the nation. Last year when these 2 met, it was early in the season, MSU was considered the better team at the time, LSU was still learning Brian Kelly’s systems in his first year as HC, and the Tigers still won by 15 points outgained the Bulldogs 419 to 289. Now the roles are reversed and we see LSU cruising in this game vs an MSU offense that will struggle and a defense that allowed 6.0 YPP to Arizona last week. Lay it.

#342 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UTSA -13.5 over Texas State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This one sets up very nicely for the home team. Texas State is in prime letdown area coming off a huge upset @ Baylor as 28 point dogs. Baylor outgained Texas State 524 to 441 but also had 9 penalties. Coming into the season Texas State had 71 new players (2nd most in the nation) and a new coach (Kinne) who came over from Incarnate Word (FCS school). They played well last Saturday but also picked up a number of breaks and they are still learning a new system on both sides of the ball. They are taking on a veteran UTSA coming off a 17-14 loss @ Houston as a 2 point road favorite. The Roadrunners drastically outplayed Houston averaging 5.9 YPP to just 4.6 for the Cougars but had 3 turnovers (0 for Houston) which was the difference in the game. UTSA dominated in the trenches with 208 yards rushing on 5.9 YPC while holding Houston to only 101 yards rushing on 2.7 YPC. UTSA head coach Jeff Traylor was not happy after the loss. “We didn’t play winning football,” said Traylor. “Two-thirds of the triangle we did. We held them to 100 yards rushing. We were physical. I’m proud of that. Offensively, we rushed for over 200 yards. You can tell we can impose our will with our three running backs. Our passing game was not very clean. Obviously, three turnovers are hard to overcome.” Now we get a veteran UTSA team with 15 starters back after finishing with an 11-3 record last year, at home after a loss they should have won. Roadrunner Senior QB Harris (4 year starter) has been fabulous with nearly 10,000 yards passing and 76 TD’s and he’s coming off one of his worst games in recent memory (3 interceptions). You can bet he’ll play much better against this Texas State defense that allowed over 500 yards on 7.0 YPP last week. Meanwhile, we don’t anticipate the Texas State offense having anywhere near the amount of success they had last week facing a UTSA defense that held a potent Houston offense to 4.6 YPP last week. Teams coming off an outright win as a dog of 20 or more points have only covered 44% of the time the following week (Texas State). This line is too low in our opinion based on last week’s deceiving results so we’ll lay the points with UTSA.

#233 ASA PLAY ON Oregon State (-) over San Jose State, Sunday at 3:30 PM ET - SJSU has one game under their belts getting whipped by USC last week 56-28. The Spartan defense gave up over 500 total yards and forced USC to punt only twice in the game. San Jose did put up a solid 28 points on a USC defense that looks to be weak again this season. Last year the Trojans finished outside the top 100 in total defense which is head coach Lincoln Riley’s MO – great offense, bad defense. This week will be much more difficult as the Spartans face an undervalued Oregon State team that had the top defense in the Pac 12 last year allowing 338 YPG. Offensively, the Beavers should have big time success, similar to what USC did last season. This offense is underrated in our opinion. They averaged 29 PPG last season but we expect that to jump to closer to 40 PPG this season. QB DJ Uiagalelei who was the starter at Clemson the last 2 seasons, will be under center. Word from Corvallis is he has looked fantastic leading up to this one. He’ll operate behind a very experienced offensive line that we rate as one of the best in the country. The rushing attack averaged right around 200 YPG last year and with their 3 headed monster in the backfield (Martinez, Newell, and Fenwick) behind that offensive line we look for this to be one of the top rushing teams in the nation. Many might think that because SJSU played last week they have the advantage. That simply isn’t the case. In fact, it’s the reverse. OSU now has game film to prepare for this game while San Jose does not. Since 2005, teams playing for the first time in a season facing a team that played the previous week are 56-33 ATS (63%). We feel that OSU will be able to move the ball on the Spartans nearly as well as USC did last week, however SJSU won’t have the luxury of facing a bad defense this week. Lay it.

#145 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nebraska +7 over Minnesota, Thursday at 8 PM ET - The Huskers start a new regime with former Temple, Baylor, and Carolina Panther coach Matt Rhule at the helm. He turned around the Temple and Baylor programs and we have no doubt he’ll get Nebraska headed in the right direction. Unlike his first year stops with the Owls and Bears, he has some solid talent here at Nebraska. It’s not total rebuild as the others were. The offensive line is experienced with 120 career starts which is 2nd only to Michigan in the Big 10. New QB Sims has started for 3 years @ Georgia Tech prior to this season and has 4500 passing yards, 1200 rushing yards, and 41 TD’s to his credit. He has a big experience edge over new Gopher QB Kaliakmanis who started some games last year for an injured Tanner Morgan but completed only 54% of his passes and threw more interceptions than TD’s. Minnesota has relied heavily on their running game but lost the schools all time leading rusher Ibrahim to the NFL and his back up Potts transferred to Penn State. The Minny O Line ranks 108th nationally in returning starts to they have some inexperience up front as well. The Gophs defense was very good last season but lost 7 of their top 11 tacklers and we think that Nebraska can keep them guessing with this new offense Rhule brings. With Scott Frost at the helm, the Huskers found ways to lose games whether it was poor special teams play, turnovers, etc… They were close to being decent to say the least with 13 of their 17 losses the last 2 seasons coming by one score or fewer (8 points or less). This series has seen 3 games in a row decided by 7 exactly points and we think Rhule will clean some things up and they’ll play more efficiently. This is expected to be a low scoring game (43 is the total) and we like it to be a close one. Take the points here.

#288 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia -12.5 over TCU, Monday at 7:30 PM ET - Georgia has been the best team in the country all season long and we like them to win by at least 2 TD’s in this game. The Bulldogs came from 2 TD’s down last week to beat Ohio State, however UGA dominated the stats outgaining the Buckeyes by almost a full 2.0 YPP. The UGA offense gained 533 yards on just 60 offensive snaps for an average of 8.9 YPP! They were only forced to punt twice in their 12 possessions, missed 2 FG’s, and threw an interception that led to a short OSU TD drive. We don’t see any reason they won’t move up and down the field on a TCU defense that allowed Michigan to gain 7.0 YPP last week and was rated lower than the Buckeyes defense. The Frogs were fortunate in the semi finals to say the least. They barely won a game where they had 2 pick 6’s and the Wolverines were held at the TCU 2 yard line (no points) and fumbled at the TCU 1 yard line (no points). In that situation, the Frogs should have cruised to a win but the game went to the wire. Their success on offense was on the ground averaging over 6 YPC with QB Duggan completing less than 50% of his passes. We don’t think that’ll happen here vs Georgia who ranks #1 in the nation in rush defense allowing 77 YPG on only 3.0 YPC. UGA has a big edge defensively allowing almost 100 YPG fewer than TCU and their offense just put up nearly 9 YPP on a team that has a better defense than the Frogs as we discussed above. Surprisingly, 5 of the 8 National Championship games have been decided by double digits. The last 4 were all blowouts with an average margin of 22 points. We see another potential lopsided score here and we’ll lay it as long as it’s under 2 TD’s.

#276 ASA TOP PLAY ON Michigan -7.5 over TCU, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Michigan was in the College FB Playoff last year and got thumped 34-11 by UGA & they were down 27-3 at half. The players admitted last year they had a bit of a “just happy to be here” mentality as the Wolverines weren’t expected to be that good coming off a losing season the year prior. This year they are saying all the right things and completely focused on atoning for that loss and comfortable being where they are as they expected it. TCU is potentially this year’s Michigan so to speak. Their odds were 200 to 1 to win the National Championship prior to the season and the Frogs had a brand new coaching staff. No way they expected to be here and none of their coaches or players have ever been in this situation. Advantage Michigan in that regard. On top of that, TCU was a team that was behind or tied at half 5 times this season and trailed 5 times in the 4th quarter and had to make comebacks. They needed a number of breaks just to get here. Michigan, on the other hand, only trailed once in the 4th quarter this year (by 4 points early in the 4th vs Illinois) and they have the #1 PPG differential in college football with an average final score of 40-13. They are also in the top 4 in YPP and YPG differential and TCU ranks 13th and 24th in those 2 stats. The Wolverines 3rd ranked defense will be the best the Frogs have faced. In fact, TCU faced SEVEN defenses ranked outside the top 95 this season and the average ranking of the defenses they faced this year was 88th. On the other side, TCU’s defense is ranked 74th nationally and they are facing a balanced Michigan offense that runs and passes for 200+ yards and averages 40 PPG. We like Michigan’s experience here not to mention they are the better team. Lay it.

ASA top play on 10* UCLA -7.5 vs Pittsburgh, Friday 2 PM ET - Pittsburgh closed the season on a nice 4-0 SU streak, but it came against some weak competition. In fact, the Panther are 8-4 on the season but only 2 of those wins came against teams with above .500 records. Excluding Rhode Island, the teams Pitt beat this season have a combined 36-45 SU record. The Panthers have some solid defensive numbers, but again a soft ACC schedule has a lot to do with that. Pitt has not faced an offense like UCLA’s (3rd YPG) this season. In fact, the closest offense they faced this year would be North Carolina (17th total YPG) and they lost that game by 18-points. UCLA ranked 3rd in college football this season in yards per game gained at 510, 38th in passing YPG, 4th in rushing as they pounded 246RYPG to average 39.6PPG (10th). The Bruins offense put up a gaudy 6.8 yards per play which was 7th best in the nation. At first glance, it seems the Bruins defense struggled this season but let’s not forget the Pac 12 had 5 offenses that ranked 18th or higher in total YPG gained. The big player news for both teams clearly favors the Bruins as QB Thompson-Robinson, RB Charbonnet (4th in the nation in rushing yards) and WR Allen are all expected to play. Pittsburgh will be without QB Slovis, RB Abanikanda and defensive tackle Kancey, all three key players to this Panther roster. UCLA is looking to win 10-games for the first time since 2013 and should get a convincing win here against an overrated Pitt team.

#256 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida State -9.5 over Oklahoma, Thursday at 5:30 PM ET - We know FSU is extremely happy to be in this bowl game having not played in the post-season since the 2019 season and not won a bowl game since the 2017 season. This game is in Orlando as well which will give FSU a solid home field (crowd) advantage. The Noles have some serious momentum winning 5 straight to end the season and their star QB Travis has stated he will be back next season. FSU was among the best teams in the country this season and their +2.2 YPP differential and +170 YPG differential was very impressive. It could be argued they are better than their 9-3 record as they outplayed 2 of their opponents in tight losses outgaining Clemson by 90 yards (lost by 6) and NC State by 80 yards (lost by 2). The Noles haven’t lost a game since mid October. Oklahoma had a very disappointing season. They were expected to be the top team in the Big 12 and contend for a spot in the Final 4. None of that came close to happening and they finished the regular season with a 6-6 record. While FSU is motivated in this game, we’re not so sure the Sooners will bring their “A” game here. This program is used to being in much bigger bowl games and this is a big step down for them. They will have to play this game without their All American RB Gray (1400 yards rushing) and both starting OT’s have left the program. When they faced a bowl team this year, OU was 1-4-1 ATS and outgained by 40 YPG. When they played against the top 3 teams in the Big 12 (only 3 teams rated in final playoff rankings), they lost all 3 by an average score of 48-19 and they were outgained by a combined 660 yards in those losses. We like FSU by double digits.

#247 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kansas +3 over Arkansas, Wednesday at 5:30 PM ET - Love this spot for KU. First of all, they are thrilled to be here in the Liberty Bowl having not played in a bowl game since 2008. Arkansas we’re not so sure. We take that back, we’re actually pretty positive they aren’t overly excited about this bowl game. That’s because they finished 9-4 last year, won their January 1st bowl vs Penn State, and had very high aspirations coming into this season. A 6-6 season and a bid to the Liberty Bowl is not what they expected. The Razors have had as many defections as any team in college football which speaks to their probable lack of excitement for this game. All together, players who started a combined 95 games — 50 on offense and 45 on defense — for the Razorbacks will not play against Kansas. That is more than one-third of their total starts on both sides of the ball. The Razorbacks who won’t play against Kansas accounted for 3,410 offensive snaps (34.3% of all snaps), 2,583 defensive snaps (26.0%) and 787 special teams snaps (19.3%) according to Pro Football Focus. Not only is the motivation factor heavily in favor of the Jayhawks, their stats for the season were simply better as well. KU had a +1.2 YPP differential while Arkansas was -0.2 and believe it or not, according to the Sagarin ratings, Kansas actually played the tougher strength of schedule (4th vs 23rd). Jayhawk starting QB Daniels missed 5 games this season and they were 1-4 in those games. In the games where he started and played to the end, KU was 5-2. He’s back and healthy for this one which should be a big boost to the offense and they are facing an Arkansas defense that finished the season ranked 123rd nationally. Kansas had their struggles on defense as well, however with Arkansas missing a multitude of weapons, including 3 starting WR’s and TE, we’re not sure they can take complete advantage in this one. Jayhawk HC Leipold was an absolute fantastic post-season coach at the D3 level leading UW Whitewater to a ridiculous 6 National Championships. When he took over a downtrodden Buffalo program, he led them to 3 bowls (2-1 record) winning his last 2 by a combined score of 48-19. He’ll have this team more than ready to go on Wednesday. We like Kansas to win this game outright and getting +3 is a bonus cushion.

#221 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Eastern Michigan +4 over San Jose State, Tuesday at 3:30 PM ET - Our power ratings have SJSU as a 1 point favorite on a neutral site so we feel the value is with EMU in this game. The Spartans have been trending down and overvalued for over a month now. They’ve lost 6 straight ATS by an average of more than 10 PPG. They were outgained by 4 of their last 6 opponents winning the stat sheet vs Nevada (2-10 record) and Hawaii (3-10 record) only. Their only wins since early September were vs Hawaii, Colorado St, and Nevada three teams who have a combined 8-29 record. EMU, on the other hand, is playing their best ball of the season right now winning 6 of their last 8 games with a spread record of 5-1-1 their last 7. The offense hit their stride down the stretch scoring 30+ points in three crucial games to end the season. This is also a team that beat Arizona State on the road earlier in the year and outgained the Sun Devils by 116 yards, prompting ASU officials to fire head coach Herm Edwards immediately after the game. EMU head coach Chris Creighton has been fantastic as an underdog going 3-1 ATS in bowl games and 35-10 ATS his last 45 getting points. The Eagles are the much more balanced offense rushing for 144 YPG and passing for 218 YPG. SJSU can’t run the ball averaging only 92 YPG (125th nationally) so they can be one dimensional on offense not great when your offensive line ranks 114th in sacks allowed per game. EMU is making this out to be a huge game for their program. They are looking to win their first bowl game since 1987. This game is being played in Boise which is in the same conference as San Jose State so we can’t imagine this is a rewarding bowl for that program. Take the points in this one.

#217 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boise State -10.5 over North Texas, Saturday at 9:15 PM ET - This game is in Frisco, TX giving UNT a slight home field advantage but we still like Boise to roll. The North Texas program is in a bit of chaos after firing their head coach Littrell despite making the CUSA Championship game. That spot was just filled by an assistant coach from Washington State just a few days ago leaving the current coaching staff in limbo. The Mean Green were trending downward to close the season failing to cover their last 3 games and getting blown out in 2 of those games. They were 1-5 SU this year vs teams with winning records and in their 5 losses they were beaten by a combined score of 212 to 119 or an average final score of 42.5 to 23.8. They were outgained by over 600 yards in those 5 losses. Boise turned their season around once they switched QB’s and went with Green under center and hired longtime NFL coach Dirk Koetter to call plays. Once they settled on Green as the starter, the Broncos went 6-2 from that point on with their only losses coming vs BYU and Fresno in the MWC Championship game. They already had a great defense and with Green as the starter they averaged 32 PPG making them very tough to beat. The BSU defense has a HUGE advantage in this game ranking 6th nationally in total defense and 11th in scoring defense allowing 18 PPG compared to the UNT stop unit that ranks outside the top 100 in total defense, pass defense, rush defense, and scoring defense allowing 31.5 PPG. Boise rolls in this one.

#321/322 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Clemson -7.5 over UNC, Saturday at 8 PM ET - We like this spot for Clemson off a 1 point loss to a surging South Carolina team as a double digit favorite. It wasn’t a terrible loss by any means vs a surging Gamecocks team who had won 3 of their last 4 games including a 63-38 win over a top 5 Tennessee team. The Tigers blew a 9 point second half lead in that game and head coach Dabo Swinney made all of his coaches put in extra film time after that loss in preparation for the ACC Championship game. Clemson is very well coached and we feel they’ll play outstanding in this game after last week’s result. UNC is trending downward for sure. They have lost back to back games vs teams using back up QB’s. The Heels lost at home to a bad Georgia Tech team 21-17 on November 19th and the Jackets were without their starting QB Sims in that game and lost their back up during the game. UNC followed that loss up by getting beat again at home last Saturday by NC State who played their 3rd string QB Finley and he had only appeared in one other game this season. The offense, particularly, QB Maye looks like they are running out of gas. They struggled to put up yardage each of the last 2 weeks (350 and 365 total yards) and now they face one of the better defensive fronts in college football. Maye’s numbers have dropped off drastically the last 2 weeks as he has completed just 57% of his passes for 215 YPG through the air. Clemson with a huge edge defensively here (24th in total D to 117th for North Carolina) and they have a solid coaching advantage. Clemson is used to playing in big games like this and we like them to win by double digits.

#327 ASA TOP PLAY ON Akron +12 over Buffalo, Friday at 1 PM ET - The Bulls were playing for a spot in the MAC Championship game last weekend and with a win over Kent they would have been in. They blew a 14 point lead with under 3:00 minutes to go in the game and then lost in OT. This is a really tough bounce back spot for them even if they need this one to get to 6 wins on the season. It was a meaningless road game for Kent as they were already out of bowl contention and their starting QB Schlee came into that game injured. He only took a few snaps and the Golden FlashThe Flashes played 3 separate QB’s in that game, one of which hadn’t played a snap this season. Even with that, Kent still was able to win the game and outgain Buffalo in the process. The Bulls are catching an Akron team that is playing their best football of the season. Last week the Zips went into Northern Illinois as a 9 point dog and won the game outright 44-12! It wasn’t a fluke as they outgained the Huskies by 250 yards. They have now outgained their last 4 opponents and they’ve shown zero quit as the season comes to an end. Last week the Zips were without their starting QB Irons but their back up Undercuffler, who threw for over 6,000 career yards as a starter at Albany prior to transferring, looked great last week passing for 312 yards and 3 TD’s. Despite their records (Akron 2-9 / Buffalo 5-6) the Zips have very similar overall stats (-1.0 YPP differential to Buffalo’s -1.2 YPP differential / Akron -38 YPG and Buffalo -15 YPG) and we’re getting double digits. Buffalo hasn’t won a game in over a month (October 23 was their last win) and Akron continues to fight with their win last week and 5 of their last 7 losses coming by single digits. Take the points on Friday afternoon.

#126 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oregon State +3 over Oregon, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This seems like a line most would grab Oregon based on the situation. The Ducks are playing for a spot in the Pac 12 Championship game yet only favored by a FG vs OSU. We actually think it’s a tough spot for Oregon as they’ve come off back to back emotional, down to the wire games the last 2 weeks. They were upended by Washington 37-34 when the Huskies scored 2 TDs in the final 3:10 to get the win. Last week Oregon played host to Utah and picked up a tight 20-17 win but the Utes had plenty of chances to get the W but had 3 turnovers, a missed FG, and they were shut out on downs 3 times in Oregon territory. Three huge games in a row can be really tough on a team and we have a feeling the Ducks struggle here. Their QB Nix is really banged up right now and didn’t look even close to 100% last week. OSU is flying under the radar right now. Despite getting very little publicity, this team is 8-3 and they’ve won 5 of their last 6. The Beavers had one bad game this year vs Utah in which they outgained the Utes but turned the ball over 4 times including a pick 6. Other than that, their other 2 losses were by 3 points vs USC and by 3 points @ Washington. They run the ball very well (194 YPG) and their defense is sneaky good ranking 25th nationally. OSU has beaten the Ducks 2 of the last 3 times in Corvallis and they’d like nothing better than to ruin Oregon’s Pac 12 title hopes. We like OSU + the points and think they have a great shot at the upset.

#132 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Iowa -10.5 over Nebraska, Friday at 4 PM ET - A win here sends Iowa to the Big 10 Championship game representing the West division. We can’t imagine Nebraska will be hyped to play this game. They are out of bowl consideration and put everything into last week’s home finale vs Wisconsin and lost 15-14 when the Badgers scored a TD with 30 seconds remaining. It’s not as if the Huskers dominated the game and blew it at the end. They were very fortunate to be in it as they gained only 171 total yards and were outgained by 147 yards. The Nebraska offense has been shut down over the last month scoring 9, 13, 3, and 14 points their last 4 games. The last 2 weeks they were held under 175 total yards vs both Wisconsin and Michigan. Now they face an Iowa defense that is every bit as good as those 2 stop units so we expect very little, if anything, out of the Nebraska offense. So we’re laying double digits with an Iowa offense that has struggled most of the year. Can they do enough to get this cover? We think so. Taking a close look at their schedule, Iowa’s offense has played one of the tougher slates of opposing defenses this season. 6 of the 11 defenses they’ve faced are ranked in the top 15 nationally. All but 2 of the defenses the Hawkeyes have faced rank inside the top 35. The 2 defenses they’ve played that were not good were Northwestern (72nd ranked defense) and Nevada (96th ranked defense) and they put up 33 and 27 points in those 2 contests. On Friday they face a Nebraska defense that ranks 108th which is the worst Iowa has played this season. Iowa’s offense has looked much better down the stretch averaging 24 PPG over their last 4 vs defenses much better than Nebraska’s. If they get to that here, we think the cover. Big disparity on defense and in “want to” here in favor of Iowa so we’ll lay it.

#120 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Missouri +4 over Arkansas, Friday at 3:30 PM ET - We were on Arkansas last weekend in what was a huge game for them. They were home dogs and needed to beat Ole Miss to clinch bowl eligibility. They did just that and now they are on the road in a potential letdown spot. Despite the win last week, the Razors defense has some serious deficiencies. The offense played great but the defense allowed 700 yards to the Rebs. They currently rank 121st in total defense and on the road they are 2-2 on the season allowing 32 PPG. They haven’t played a very tough road slate despite their 2-2 record beating Auburn & BYU while losing @ Mississippi State and @ Texas A&M, whose season has been a disaster. In fact, A&M’s only conference win this year was at home vs Arkansas. Mizzou is in a similar situation to the Razors last week. They are 5-6 and have to win this game to get to a bowl. Their defense, unlike Arkansas, has been very good ranking 30th nationally so we’re getting a desperate home underdog with the much better defense. The Tigers are 4-2 at home this year with tight 4 point losses to Georgia & Kentucky. No other team has played to within 10 points of UGA this year. While Arkansas was putting all of their time and energy into beating LSU to reach 6 wins last week, Missouri had a “semi” bye beating New Mexico State bad and you can bet they were also preparing for this game in the week leading up to that. These 2 teams have played similar strength of schedules and their stats are pretty close with Mizzou +0.1 YPP and +25 YPG while Arkansas is -0.1 YPP and +16 YPG. The host has covered 9 of the last 10 in this series and this one is much more important for the Tigers.

#400 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arkansas +2.5 over Ole Miss, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - This is an absolute flat spot for Ole Miss. The Rebels are now officially out of the SEC West race (LSU will play in the Championship Game) after losing 30-24 at home to Alabama last Saturday. They had a shot at the win pushing to the Alabama 14 yard line with under 1:00 minute remaining but were shut out on downs. Going on the road after that disappointment will be tough especially since they have a home game vs arch rival Mississippi State next on Thanksgiving Day. Not to mention, Ole Miss has only played one decent team on the road this season and that was @ LSU where they were rolled 45-20. The Rebels other road games this season came vs Georgia Tech, Vandy, and Texas A&M who all have losing records. On the other side, this is a HUGE home game for Arkansas. They need one more win for bowl eligibility and this is their final home game. Last week we were on the Razors and found out right before kickoff (along with everyone else) that starting QB Jefferson was being held out of the game. Despite that, Arkansas gave a great effort and nearly knocked off LSU losing 13-10 (Arkansas did get the cover). With Jefferson in the lineup, we’re fairly confident the Razorbacks would have won that game. He has been practicing all week and will be back in the line up on Saturday according to head coach Pittman. Not only is this the home finale, but it’s a game Arkansas has had circled after losing 52-51 @ Ole Miss last year failing on a 2 point conversion with no time left on the clock. The Razors also fall into a very strong system which is conference home underdogs coming off back to back home losses (so playing their 3rd straight home game) are 68-41 ATS over the last 40+ seasons. Arkansas is a very dangerous home dog here with a lot to play for and we’ll call for the upset

#354 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* East Carolina -5.5 over Houston, Saturday at 2 PM ET - These teams are both 6-4 on the season but ECU is the much better team. This is the Pirates first home game in nearly a month and their home finale. ECU is coming off a game where they completely outplayed Cincinnati on the road, a Bearcats team that is currently tied for first place in the AAC. In that game the Pirates lost 27-25 but outgained Cincy by +144 total yards. The Pirates also beat UCF by 21 points so they outplayed the top 2 teams in the conference while Houston didn’t have to face Cincy or Central Florida. ECU has actually outgained every opponent but one this season and they are +80 YPG on the season. Houston struggled at home to beat a bad Temple team last Saturday. The Cougars were outgained in that game and scored a TD with under 1:00 remaining in the game to win by a TD vs a 3-7 Temple team. Houston’s YPG differential on the season is just +13 and they’ve been overvalued all season long with a 3-7 ATS record losing to the number by a combined 55 points or an average of 5.5 PPG. ECU, on the other hand, is 7-3 ATS and has covered 3 straight by a combined 35 points. ECU’s top 20 offense will be facing a Houston defense that ranks outside the top 100 in total defense, passing defense, and PPG allowed. The Pirates average 35 PPG at home this season with a scoring margin of +12.5 PPG and Houston allows 39.5 PPG on the road. Last year these 2 met in Houston and while the Cougars pulled out a win on OT, they were outgained by over 100 yards by ECU. The Pirates should be highly motivated here in their final home game, we like them to win this by more than a TD.

#158 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech -3.5 over Kansas, Saturday at 7 PM ET - This is a huge home game for Tech. They sit with a 4-5 record and need to win 2 of their last 3 games for bowl eligibility. They are catching Kansas coming off a huge home win vs Oklahoma State which made the Jayhawks bowl eligible for the first time since 2008. The celebrated as if they’d won the National Championship and now KU must go on the road where they’ve struggled. We expect a letdown here now that Kansas has achieved their goal of making it to a bowl game. They are 1-2 SU in Big 12 road games losing by double digits to both Oklahoma and Baylor (outgained by a combined 400+ yards in those games) and their lone win was @ WVU in OT way back on September 10th and we have the Mountaineers the lowest rated team in the Big 12. Last week’s 37-16 win over a really banged up OSU team wasn’t quite as impressive as it might seem. The Cowboys played without their starting QB along with a number of other key starters on the shelf as well. A week earlier OSU lost @ KSU 48-0. They simply have too many injuries to compete at a high level right now. It looks like KU starting QB Daniels will remain out meaning back up Bean will get his 4th straight start. Prior to last week’s win, Bean started 2 games on the road (Baylor & Oklahoma) and the Jayhawks were down 20+ points in the 2nd half of each game and made a late comeback making each look more respectable than they actually were losing by 10 & 12 points. Tech is much better than their 4-5 record. They’ve played very tough with all but one of the Big 12’s top teams and have led in the 2nd half of many of those conference losses. The Red Raiders have played the 4th toughest schedule in the nation yet their YPG differential is an impressive +89 YPG (Kansas is -1 YPG on the season). Their offense is always potent, however the Tech defense is vastly improved this year allowing 373 YPG after giving up over 400 YPG last season. They hold a solid edge on that side of the ball with the KU defense giving up 435 YPG. The Raiders did lose QB Morton to an injury last week, however he was their 3rd string QB to start the season and was forced into action when starter Shough and back up Smith went down. They are both back so whoever starts we’re fine at QB. We like the value here as Texas Tech was favored by 19 AT Kansas last year and won in blowout fashion. We understand KU is improved but that is a huge swing in the pointspread in just 1 year. Tech is 21-2 SU in this series and we look for a win and cover on Saturday.

#327 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wake Forest -3.5 over NC State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - Wake is coming off a horrible performance @ Louisville last Saturday and we like them to bounce back in a big way here. Last week the Deacs were favored by -3 @ Louisville and lost the game 48-21. The yardage in the game was dead even however WF had a ridiculous 8 turnovers in the game, including 6 in the third quarter alone that led to the Cards scoring 35 points in that quarter. Four of Louisville’s five TD’s in the third quarter came on 2 pick 6’s, a 9 yard TD drive and a 33 yard TD drive. It was simply a game where everything went wrong for Wake. Let’s remember prior to that loss, WF was 6-1 on the season with their only loss coming in OT vs Clemson. It was their first road loss of the season after rolling @ Vandy by 20 points and winning @ Florida State by 10. NC State is ranked in the top 25 but they are seriously overvalued right now. That’s because they lost their veteran starting QB Leary three weeks ago and they have not been impressive in their 2 games since he went out. The Wolfpack lost 24-9 @ Syracuse and then last week had to rally from down 21-3 at home vs a bad Virginia Tech team to win 22-21. They made a switch at QB to true freshman Morris last week after getting behind and he rallied them back in his first extended action of the season. This week he’ll be making the first start of his career which is much different that coming in off the bench. Wake has film on the inexperienced starter and we expect him to struggle. The Demon Deacon offense has had all kinds of success vs NC State’s defense averaging 38 PPG over the last 5 meetings and the last 2 years with QB Hartman at the helm they’ve scored 45 and 42 points. NC State has a negative YPP differential on the season and they were outgained in 4 of their 6 games BEFORE QB Leary was injured. Wake is the better team, off a bad loss, with a huge edge at the QB position. Lay the small number.

#313 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Appalachian State -3 over Coastal Carolina, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Coastal steps into this home game with a 7-1 record yet they are underdogs vs the 5-3 App State Mountaineers. We agree and feel ASU is the much better team. We’ve felt Coastal has been overrated most of the season and they are not a 7-1 team. Their most recent home game the Chanticleers were whipped by 28 points vs Old Dominion and Coastal was favored by 12 in that game. That loss was no fluke as a rather average ODU offense put up a ridiculous 10.7 YPP to just 5.6 YPP for CC. The Monarchs destroyed Coastal in the trenches as well averaging over 10 YPC to just 2.1 YPC for the Chanticleers. Last week it looks like Coastal rebounded well beating Marshall but that wasn’t the case as they were again dominated gaining just 271 yards while allowing 407. Marshall turnovers and penalties were key in that win for CC. Now they face an App State team that is among the best rushing teams in the nation and we look for CC to get dominated at the line of scrimmage again. App State has played the tougher schedule facing 2 Power 5 opponents (UNC & Texas A&M) while Coastal hasn’t faced a Power 5 opponent and has a strength of schedule ranking of 121st. Despite that App State has a YPP differential of +1.5 and a YPG differential of +150 compared to CC who sits at +0.2 YPP and +22 YPG. Remember this ASU team took UNC to the wire (lost by 2) and beat Texas A&M on the road. We’ll take the much better team and lay only 3 points here.

#306 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Northern Illinois -5.5 over Central Michigan, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - NIU is undervalued with a 2-6 record in our opinion. Their starting QB Lombardi has played in only 1 of their 4 conference games and the Huskies won that game 39-10 @ Eastern Michigan. It looks like he’ll be back for this one and NIU is just happy to be at home for once. They have played ONE home game since September 17th and we’re now into November. That one home game was a loss to the MAC’s best team, Toledo, however Lombardi didn’t play and Northern still outgained the Rockets by 75 yards in that loss. Toledo had 2 pick 6’s in the game. NIU has now outgained every conference opponent this year despite only having 1 win in MAC play. CMU is also 1-4 in conference play with their only win coming vs league doormat Akron and by only 7 points. The Chips followed that unimpressive win up by getting smoked by a bad Bowling Green team 34-18. That’s a BG team that had only won 7 of their previous 27 games dating back to 2019. In that game CMU pulled their starting QB Richardson who has been struggling and inserted inexperienced freshman Bauer who played OK. He may start here which would be his first road start ever. At worst, it sounds like they may rotate QB’s here so with Lombardi starting for NIU we have a big advantage under center. The Huskies should control the line of scrimmage here ranking 22nd nationally in rushing and they’ve outrushed all but Vanderbilt and Toledo this season. Central Michigan has solid overall defensive numbers vs the run, however they’ve played a very weak schedule of rush offenses including their 2 most recent games vs Akron (128th rushing) and BG (110th rushing). The one good running team they’ve faced in MAC play was Toledo and the Rockets rolled them for 250+ yards on the ground. We like NIU to win by at least a TD here.

#127 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Missouri +3.5 over South Carolina, Saturday at 4 PM ET - South Carolina is coming off what looks like a solid 30-24 win over Texas A&M in a home night game last week. The fact is, the Gamecocks were outgained by 112 yards in that win but got out to a 17-0 lead in the 1st quarter and it took them 19 yards of TOTAL offense to get out to that 17 point lead. SC returned the opening kick for a TD, then kicked a FG (after 0 yards gained) and scored a TD (after 19 yards gained) following 2 A&M turnovers. Then on top of that, A&M lost their starting QB King with the Aggies making a comeback cutting the lead to 3 and were left with their 3rd string QB who is a freshman from that point on. South Carolina is on a 4 game winning streak which is giving us some value here. Last week’s win was deceiving as we mentioned, and prior to that they topped Kentucky who was playing without their starting QB and probable first round draft pick Will Levis. Prior to that they had beaten FCS South Carolina State and Charlotte who ranks among the worst teams in FBS. Not a great 4 game run despite them winning all 4. Meanwhile Mizzou has showed some really solid play this year when stepping up in class. They gave Georgia all they could handle actually leading the Bulldogs 22-12 into the 4th quarter before UGA scored 2 TD’s to win 26-22 (SOUTH CARO LOST TO UGA 48-7 at home). The Tigers went to Florida and lost by a TD but outgained the Gators by 73 yards and they lost in OT by 3 points @ Auburn outgaining the host in that game as well. Missouri brings in a high level defense ranking in the top 20 nationally in both YPG and YPP allowed. They also run the ball well (157 YPG) and they are facing a Gamecock defense that ranks 98th defending the run. This sets up as a letdown afternoon game for SC after their rousing atmosphere last Saturday evening vs A&M. They are 1-7-1 ATS following an ATS win and we feel Missouri is actually the better team here. Take the points.

#407 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boise State +2.5 over Air Force, Saturday at 7 PM ET - We love the way Boise is trending here after QB Bachmeier decided to transfer and they’ve been starting Green at QB. The defense was always very good, they just couldn’t get anything going on offense with Bachmeier under center. If we throw out their FCS game vs UT Martin, the offense under Bachmeier averaged 19 PPG and just 268 total YPG. In their 2 games since Green took over they have crushed San Diego State and Fresno State, the Broncos are averaging 37.5 PPG and 446 total YPG. As we stated, the defense has been great ranking 2nd in the nation in YPG (235) allowed and 5th in YPP allowed (4.1). The Boise rush defense has been top notch allowing just 101 YPG on 3.0 YPC which is key vs an Air Force offense thar runs the ball an average of 59 times per game (2nd most in the nation). Boise has also had two full weeks to prepare for this offense coming off last week’s bye. Air Force is coming off a big win over UNLV but we feel they are trending downward. The Rebels had a number of injuries last week including their starting QB who didn’t play in the game giving AF a big advantage. In their 2 games without their starting QB Brumfield, UNLV has lost by a combined score of 82-14 which tells you how important he is. Prior to last week, the Falcons struggled to beat a down Navy team 13-10 and lost to Utah State with USU playing their back up QB. While Boise is off their bye, AF is playing for the 8th consecutive week. Undervalued vs Overvalued here in our opinion. Take the dog Boise State.

#130 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kentucky +4 over Mississippi State, Saturday at 7:30PM ET - Kentucky got off to a great start to the season but has now lost two straight games. The Cats most recent loss to South Carolina has impacted this line and given us more value with the home underdog. Last week UK was without future NFL 1st rounder QB Will Levis who practiced this week and is back for this game. Additionally, this is a spot to sell high on Mississippi State, who is off a pair of huge SEC wins against Arkansas and Texas A&M. Not to mention the Bulldogs have a monster game on deck against Alabama. The Bulldogs benefitted from facing a pair of back up QB’s in their last two wins and were +5 in turnovers. The MSU defense still gave up 483-total yards to Arkansas and 388-yards to Texas A&M. The one road game against a comparable opponent to Kentucky was versus LSU and the Bulldogs were outgained by 129-yards and lost by 15-points. The Wildcats should have success with their running game against a Bulldog defense that gives up 139.8-rushing yards per game (56th) which will then open up the passing attack for Levis. Kentucky also allows the 14th least passing yards per game at 182.2 with opponents completing just 15.8-pass attempts per game which is 13th in the nation. Last season MISS ST won at home 31-17 as a 1-point favorite. The home team has covered 8-straight in this series with the host winning by an average of +15.5PPG.

#117 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Kent +8 over Toledo, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We always take a strong look at underdogs that have a potent offense and that’s what we have here. And we’re getting more than a TD which is a bonus. Kent’s overall offensive numbers aren’t spectacular this season, however much of that has to do with the schedule they’ve played. They’ve already faced Georgia, Oklahoma, and Washington this season and their strength of schedule is ranked 26th nationally. Compare that to Toledo’s SOS which is 135th and we feel Kent is more prepared for this match up. When stepping away from those high level Power 5 teams, the Golden Flashes offensive numbers are very good averaging 39 PPG and 570 YPG in their other 3 contests. In their 2 games vs MAC opponents the last 2 weeks, Kent has put up almost 1,200 yards! They are coming off a close loss last week as a 5 point favorite @ Miami OH. Toledo is stepping into this game off a very deceiving 52-32 win over Northern Illinois last week. The Rockets were outgained by 75 yards in that win, they had 2 pick 6’s, they were +4 in turnovers, and NIU played without their starting QB. Toledo’s offensive numbers aren’t great (ranked 78th in total offense) despite playing a very easy schedule as we mentioned. Defensively they have some decent stats but besides Ohio State, who scored 77 points and put up almost 800 yards on this Rocket defense, they’ve faced a very poor offensive schedule with their other opponents ranked 68th, 71st, 125th, and 129th in total offense. Their 3 FBS wins this season have come against NIU, CMU, UMass who are all 1-5 SU on the season for a combined record of 3-15. We like Kent to give Toledo all they can handle here and we expect them to have a shot at the outright win. Take the points.

#356 ASA TOP PLAY ON Iowa State +1.5 over Kansas State, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - ISU is in must win mode at home here after losing back to back games vs Baylor (lost by 7) and Kansas (lost by 3). In their 14-11 loss @ KU last week the Cyclones outgained Jayhawks by 100+ yards but missed 3 of their 4 FG’s in a game they should have won. Make note the ISU kicker was perfect on the season coming into the game so it’s not as if that has been a problem in the past. KSU is off back to back huge wins vs Oklahoma and Texas Tech but were outgained in both. The game prior to that the Wildcats lost at home to Tulane and the yardage was dead even. The Cats are a bit fortunate to be 4-1 as they’ve only outgained their 5 opponents by an average of 33 YPG but they are already +9 turnovers this season. KSU averages just 150 YPG passing (115th nationally) and they rely heavily on their running game to move the offense. That might be tough here as they are facing an Iowa State defense that 8th in the country in total defense (255 YPG allowed) and 7th in rush defense giving up just 83 YPG. Last week the ISU defense faced a Kansas offense that ranked 13th in rushing (228 YPG) to barely 100 yards on 3.6 YPC. The Cyclones have outgained their opponents this year by +126 YPG and their defense is allowing only 4.4 YPP which is a full 1 YPP better than KSU’s stop unit. The Clones were favored by 6.5 at Kansas State last year (and won) and this year they are home underdogs. Too much of a line swing in our opinion and with games vs Texas and Oklahoma on deck, this is a huge home game for Iowa State. We have this game powered to dead even so we like the value with the host.

#408 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Louisiana Tech -2.5 over UTEP, Saturday at 7 PM ET - Tough spot for UTEP playing their 2nd straight road game (and 3rd in 4 weeks) after winning a tight one at Charlotte last week. The Miners were outgained in that 41-35 win @ Charlotte but had 2 defensive TD’s including a 100 yard fumble return which was a 14 point swing in a tight game. UTEP is 3-1 over their last 4 games but their opponents have been weak as they faced New Mexico (lost by 17), NM State (won by 7) and Charlotte (won by 6) during that stretch, 3 teams we have rated 122, 124, and 128 nationally (out of 131 teams). The Miners could have easily lost all 3 of those games vs very poor opponents. La Tech is in a nice spot here coming off a bye week. They’ve lost their last 2 games but played strong competition losing to Clemson (undefeated) and South Alabama, whose only loss was by 1 point @ UCLA. La Tech has also already played Missouri this year and they have a strength of schedule rated 20th nationally compared to UTEP which ranks 116th in that category. Despite playing the much tougher schedule, the Bulldogs have the better offensive numbers with more YPG and they average a full TD more per game than UTEP. The Miners have the better defensive numbers but they’ve faced 4 offenses this year ranked 129th, 125th, 112th, and 85th. The Bulldogs were favored on the road in this meeting by 6.5 points last year and they were upset by UTEP and now we get them at a much cheaper price, at home, and in a very good situational spot.

#382 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech +9.5 over Oklahoma State, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Tech steps in with a 3-2 record but they’ve outgained every opponent this year but the Red Raiders were -6 turnovers in their 2 losses to NC State and Kansas State. In their 9 point loss @ KSU last week the Raiders had a shot but had 4 turnovers, missed a FG, and were shut out on downs once. In the loss, Tech was +11 first downs, +14 yards, and +5 minutes TOP. They catch OSU in a great letdown spot here. The Cowboys have played one of the weaker schedules in power 5 (90th SOS) and they’ve been waiting and preparing for their rematch vs Baylor last week. That’s because the Bears topped OSU in the Big 12 Championship game last year. They played that game last week vs Baylor and picked up their revenge win but they were outgained by the Bears 457 to 379. It was the first legit opponent the Cowboys have faced this season after wins over Central Michigan, Arkansas Pine Bluff, and an Arizona State program in upheaval. Despite playing the much tougher schedule (8th SOS nationally) Texas Tech is +122 YPG compared to OSU who is +82 YPG despite playing an easy slate. Tech ranks higher nationally in both total offense AND total defense and if they can eliminate the turnovers, we think they can win this game outright. The Raiders have been waiting for this one after getting embarrassed 23-0 at home vs OSU last year when the Cowboys had one of the top defensive units in the nation. Not so much this year as the Cowboys lost 63% of their defensive production (20th most nationally) and their defensive coordinator is now at Ohio State. Tech is sitting in a great spot here and we’ll call this one down to the wire. Take the generous points.