Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-20-19 | Buffalo -6.5 v. Charlotte | Top | 31-9 | Win | 100 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON Buffalo Bulls (-) over Charlotte 49ers, Friday at 2 PM ET: Game #201 |
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12-15-19 | Vikings v. Chargers +1.5 | Top | 39-10 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 8 m | Show |
ASAwins 10* PLAY ON LA Chargers +1.5 over Minnesota, Sunday at 4 PM ET This line opened Vikings -3 and the vast majority of bets have come in on Minnesota this week (currently 77%) yet the line dropped off the key number of 3 down to -2.5. That tells us that despite the heavy tickets on the Vikes, the heavy money has come in on the Chargers and we agree LA is the play here. Let’s not forget this Charger team is much better than their 5-8 record and they were in the AFC Championship game last year with many of the same players on the team this year. They are +71 YPG on the year and +0.8 YPP. Their point differential is also +38 on the year which makes them one of only 2 teams with a losing record that is plus in the point differential (Indy is +1). They have outgained each of their last 5 opponents and all of their 8 losses have come by 7 or less. They are off a confidence boosting 45-10 win @ Jacksonville last year. Their last 2 home games they whipped Green Bay 26-11 outgaining the Packers by 258 yards and a 7 point loss vs KC in a game they outgained the Chiefs by 130 yards. Minnesota is coming off a division win over the Lions and they have a gigantic game vs the Packers on deck. It is their 2nd trip to the west coast in the last 3 weeks (lost by 7 @ Seattle two weeks ago). Minnesota has been great at home (6-0 record) but they are just 3-4 on the road with their wins coming against the Giants, Lions, and Cowboys, all losing teams. While the Chargers are also a losing team, we feel they are the top below .500 team out there and this is a dangerous spot for Minnesota. We think LA wins this game outright. |
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12-09-19 | Giants +10.5 v. Eagles | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON NY Giants +105 over Philadelphia, Monday at 8:15 PM ET We anticipate the Giants rallying around QB Eli Manning who steps in for his first start since September 15th. He had fairly solid numbers in those 2 starts with 556 yards passing, 63% completion rate (vs Cowboys and Bills). The organization, however, was ready to move on and see what Daniel Jones could do. Jones looked decent early but he has now lost 8 in a row (2-6 ATS) as defenses have figured him out. He’s also been a turnover machine with 21 giveaways in his 11 games. Manning will be an upgrade tonight as he is rested and ready to go. The Eagles are way too inconsistent to be laying double digits in this game. They have lost 3 in a row to drop to 5-7, including a 37-31 setback @ Miami last week. The Eagles have been outgained in 6 of their last 9 games and they’ve been held to 22 points or less in 5 of their last 7 games. Those numbers make it tough to see them as nearly a 10 point favorite here. This is also a division game which we feel favors the big dog here. Looking at Philly’s last 18 wins over NY, only 6 have come by more than 10 points. Take the points here. |
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12-08-19 | Seahawks v. Rams +1 | Top | 12-28 | Win | 100 | 33 h 15 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON LA Rams +1 over Seattle, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET This line opened with the Seahawks favored by -2.5 and has dropped despite nearly 70% of the tickets coming in on Seattle. We agree with the move and like the Rams here. Seattle is on a short week coming off a 37-30 home win over Minnesota. Seattle is now 9-1 SU this year in one score games so they are far from a dominant team despite their 10-2 record. In fact, if you line these two teams up on a point differential and YPG differential basis, they are almost identical despite the 3 game difference in the standings. The Rams are +33 points on the season and +43 YPG on the year while the Seahawks are +36 PPG and +21 YPG on the season. The Rams have a HUGE edge defensively allowing just 4.9 YPP (4th in the NFL) to Seattle’s 5.8 YPP allowed (24th in the NFL). Seattle has a slight edge offensively (5.9 YPP to 5.8 YPP) but the Rams seemed to get their momentum back offensively last week putting up a season high 550 yards @ Arizona. These two met earlier this year and the Rams were +2 in that game @ Seattle and now the spread is in the same neighborhood at home. The gives us value on LA here. IN that first meeting the Rams outgained Seattle putting up 477 yards but missed a FG as time expired in the 30-29 loss. LA has outgained 10 of their 12 opponents and they are better than their record. They are also 11-4 SU at home in division games since Sean McVay took over as head coach. This is a much bigger game for the Rams who are fighting for their playoff lives currently 1 game out of the final wildcard spot. We like the Rams to win this game. |
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12-08-19 | Titans v. Raiders +3 | Top | 42-21 | Loss | -107 | 29 h 19 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Oakland +3 over Tennessee, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET This line just a few weeks ago would have had Oakland favored and now, because of recent results, they are getting a full FG at home. The Raiders won 3 consecutive home games in beginning in early November before taking the road and losing @ NY Jets & @ KC the last 2 weeks. Last week’s 40-9 loss was extremely misleading as Oakland actually outgained the Chiefs by 73 yards (5.8 YPP to 4.4 YPP) and held the potent KC offense to less than 300 yards of total offense. Three first half turnovers led to 14 KC points and put Oakland in a quick 21-0 hole which they couldn’t climb out of. They catch an overvalued Tennessee team coming off a huge division win @ Indy last Sunday. The Titans were outgained by the Colts and the game swung on a blocked FG returned for a TD with the game tied at 17-17. Tennessee has won 5 of their last 6 but they’ve been outgained in half of those games (3). Because of the Titan’s run, we are getting solid value here. Just a few weeks ago Tennessee was +3.5 @ Carolina who is rated almost dead even with Oakland in our power ratings and now the Titans are laying a full FG. Both teams are fighting for the playoffs and only one game separates them with Oakland at 6-6 and Tennessee at 7-5. The fact is Oakland has been very good at home this year with a 5-1 record and their only loss here coming vs Kansas City. They catch the Titans in a perfect sandwich spot off a huge division road win, on the road for the 2nd straight week and a game with division leader Houston on deck. We like the Raiders to win this one outright so we’ll take the points. |
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12-07-19 | Miami-OH v. Central Michigan -6 | Top | 26-21 | Loss | -116 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Central Michigan Chippewas (-) over Miami (Ohio) RedHawks, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #106 |
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11-30-19 | North Carolina -10.5 v. NC State | Top | 41-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 44 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Carolina Tar Heels (-) over NC State Wolfpack, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET: Game #359 |
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11-29-19 | Washington State +8 v. Washington | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -109 | 28 h 53 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (+) over Washington Huskies, Friday at 4 PM ET: Game #339 |
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11-28-19 | Bills v. Cowboys -6.5 | Top | 26-15 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 0 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Dallas -6.5 over Buffalo, Thursday at 3:30 PM ET Dallas is much better than their 6-5 record in our opinion. They lead the league in yards per play differential at +1.4 and their offense is actually #1 in the NFL in total yards per game (433) and YPP (6.6). Those are better numbers than the red hot Baltimore offense! The only team that outgained Dallas this year was New Orleans and that was by just 9 yards. Despite their 6-5 record, Dallas has the 2nd best point differential in the NFC at +85 trailing only San Francisco. Last Sunday the Cowboys took New England to the wire on the road before losing 13-9. They outgained the Pats by 40 yards despite running fewer offensive plays. Buffalo is not as good as their 8-3 record would indicate. Their offense is pedestrian averaging just 18 PPG if you subtract their 2 games vs Miami. Last week they topped Denver 20-3 but still have beaten only 1 team this year that currently has a record above .500 (Tennessee). The Bills strength of schedule ranks dead last in the NFL at 32nd. The teams they’ve beaten so far this year have a current winning percentage of .239 or just less than 24%. The Cowboys running game which averages 4.6 YPC (8th in the NFL) matches up very well with Buffalo’s defensive weakness and that is allowing 4.4 YPC (21st in the NFL). That should open up the Dallas passing game and we expect them to play very well on offense. We don’t see Buffalo’s offense keeping up in this game. Lay the points with Dallas. |
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11-24-19 | Broncos +4 v. Bills | Top | 3-20 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 51 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver +4 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET As we’ve said many times this season, Denver is much better than their 3-7 record. Last week we thought they were in a terrible spot @ Minnesota, who tends to destroy teams at home, with a QB that had never started a road game. We took the Vikings thinking a 2 TD win for the host was probable. Denver proved us wrong losing just 27-23 and they actually led Minnesota 20-0 in the first half. QB Allen played solid (240 yards passing) and the defense continued to play very well holding a potent Minnesota attack to just 320 yards. Denver actually outgained Minnesota by 73 yards and played very well in one of the tougher environments in the NFL. Now they head to Buffalo in a game they can absolutely win. The Bills are a bit of a farce at 7-3 as only one of their wins came against a team with any type of a pulse (14-7 win vs Tennessee). Their other wins have come against Miami (twice), Washington, NY Giants, NY Jets, and Cincinnati. Those 4 teams have combined for a 6-34 record and that makes this Bills record a bit misleading. While Denver only has 3 wins, as we discussed they are underrated and much better than any of those 4 teams mentioned. Despite their record the Broncos are +11 YPG and +0.2 YPP on the season. Those are the stats of a .500 type team. Buffalo struggles to score. If you take out their two games vs Miami they are only averaging 17 PPG. Now they face one of the better defenses in the NFL (Denver 9th in defensive efficiency) and we expect the Buffalo offense to struggle. The Broncos have played close games all season long with 7 of their 10 games being single score contests (8 points or less). Four of their seven losses have come by 4 points or less. We look for a low scoring game and we give Denver a great shot at winning. Take the points. |
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11-23-19 | TCU +18 v. Oklahoma | Top | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 26 h 30 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* TCU Horned Frogs (+) over Oklahoma Sooners, Saturday at 8 PM ET: Game #137 |
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11-21-19 | Colts v. Texans -3.5 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
ASA play on: Houston Texans -3.5 over Indianapolis Colts, 8:20PM ET – This is a huge game for both teams as it may decide the AFC South. From a situational standpoint we must take the Texans, at home, on a short week and playing with same season revenge as they lost in Indy a few weeks ago. Not too mention, the Texans are off a HORRIBLE showing against the Ravens last week. But this game will be different as they don’t face a mobile QB like Lamar Jackson who threw for 222 yards, 4 TD’s and rank for another 86. The Colts are off a big win against Jacksonville at home with Jacoby Brissett throwing for just 148 total yards, 1 passing TD and 1 INT. These two teams have played nearly identical schedules yet the Colts net yards per play differential is minus -0.3 while the Texans is even. Houston relies heavily on QB Watson who has 8 TD’s and zero INT’s in his last two home games with 705 passing yards. We like the home team here and will lay the points. |
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11-17-19 | Texans +4.5 v. Ravens | Top | 7-41 | Loss | -103 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Houston +4.5 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Baltimore has become a bit too public since beating New England a few weeks ago and we feel this line is too high. Houston is coming off a bye and they absolutely are good enough to win this game outright and the points at +4.5 are giving us some nice cushion if Baltimore does win. Houston is 3-1 in road games including a win @ KC when the Chiefs had QB Mahomes at 100%. The Texans dominated that game outgained the potent Chiefs by 163 yards. The Houston defense allows just 84 YPG rushing (3rd best in the NFL) which matches up very well with what Baltimore likes to do on offense and that is run the ball. In order to beat this Baltimore team, you need to slow down their running game and force QB Lamar Jackson to try and win through the air. We think Houston can do just that. Baltimore has been very good in the underdog role but they are just 2-4 ATS this year when favored. Let’s not forget that before they beat New England, the Ravens lost at home to Cleveland by 15 points and picked up close wins vs both Cincinnati & Arizona. The Texans are 3-1 ATS as underdogs this year and they’ve won all 3 of those games outright. Even when Houston loses, it tends to be a close game. In fact, since Deshaun Watson took over as the starting QB in 2017, Houston has lost 11 games with him under center and all were by 8 points or less. We think this one goes to the wire and we’ll take the generous points. |
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11-16-19 | Wyoming +5.5 v. Utah State | Top | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 20 h 48 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wyoming Cowboys (+) over Utah State Aggies, Saturday at 4 PM ET: Game #353 |
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11-10-19 | Vikings +3.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Minnesota +3.5 over Dallas, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET You couldn’t ask for a better situation for a wager on the Vikings as they are off a disappointing loss, while the public Cowboys are off a big TV win on Monday night. That makes this a short week for a Cowboys team that is vastly over-rated by playing the 31st easiest schedule in the NFL. The Cowboys have played five games against teams with a combined 7-36 SU record and are the five worst teams in the NFL. Dallas has an average margin of victory this year of +10.6PPG but if you eliminate the previously teams that differential shrinks to just +1.6PPG. They’ve already lost to a pair of comparable teams to the Vikings in New Orleans (without Brees) and home against the Packers. Despite the disparity in scheduling the Cowboys yards per play differential (1.6YPPL) is barely better than the Vikings (1.0YPPL) and a tougher schedule. The Vikings have an average differential of +8.4PPG and have played a much better schedule than Dallas. Minnesota has a 2-3 SU road record this year, but the losses have come against Green Bay, at Chicago when the Bears were decent and then last week in Kansas City. Vikings head coach Zimmer is 17-3-1 ATS when coming off a loss and playing a non-division opponent and a remarkable 40-16-3 ATS when facing a non-NFC North team. |
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11-10-19 | Bills v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Cleveland -2.5 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We’re definitely buying low on Cleveland here. Nobody wants to bet the Browns right now after losing @ Denver last week dropping them to 2-6 yet they are favored over the 6-2 Bills here. There is a reason they are favored in this game and we expect a bounce back game for Cleveland. We all know they are a very talented team and now they are backed into a corner with everyone seemingly against them. That’s many times when NFL teams step up and play well. We also don’t mind fading a Buffalo team that we feel is completely overvalued at this point in the season. Their 6 wins have come against teams that have a combined record of 9-41 and none have a .500 record. They have beaten Miami, NY Jets, NY Giants, Washington, Cincinnati, and Tennessee. Last week they beat a terrible Washington team 24-9 but the Bills had just 268 yards of total offense in that game. They have also been at home for 5 of their last 6 games so their schedule thus far has been very much in favor of them. The Buffalo offense is fairly pedestrian ranking 22nd scoring only 19.8 PPG despite playing 4 of the bottom 12 defenses in the NFL this year. Their defense is overrated in our opinion for the same reason as the Bills have faced 6 of the bottom 9 NFL teams ranked in total offense. Their run defense has been exposed a bit over the last 3 weeks allowing 127 yards rushing to the Skins, 218 to the Eagles, and 109 to the Dolphins. Cleveland is one of the better running teams in the NFL (2nd in YPC) and not only will the Browns run Nick Chubb at the Buffalo defense but Kareem Hunt is now eligible as well. We expect the Browns with their backs against the wall hearing from everyone all week how bad they are, to rise up and play very well on Sunday. We spoke earlier about why would a 2-6 Cleveland team be favored over a 6-2 Buffalo team? Here is a very interesting and STRONG stat on that situation. Over the last 25 seasons, this is just the 7th time in week 6 or later a team winning 25% or less of their games (Cleveland) is favored over a team winning 75% or more of their games (Buffalo). The favorite (supposed bad team) that has won 25% or less is 6-0 ATS in those games as a favorite! Again there is a reason Cleveland is favored and we’ll take the Browns on Sunday. |
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11-09-19 | Kansas State v. Texas -7 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Longhorns (+) over Kansas State Wildcats, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #184 |
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11-03-19 | Lions v. Raiders -2.5 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Oakland -2.5 over Detroit, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET Oakland is just happy to be home where they have not played since September 15th! They’ve played 5 consecutive games away from home including a game in London a few weeks back. They also had a bye thrown in so 6 full weeks and you can bet the loyal Black & Silver followers will be amped up for this game. The Raiders were 2-3 on their road trip and were quite impressive based on their competition. They beat Indy & Chicago during that stretch with losses @ GB, @ Minnesota, and @ Houston. They actually outgained GB on the road but the game turned on a few key turnovers including one late in the 1st half that turned into a 14 points swing in favor of the Packers. Last week @ Houston the Raiders never trailed until 6:00 minutes remaining in the game in a 27-24 loss and they outgained the Texans drastically averaging 7.1 YPP to just 5.2 for Houston. On that 5 game road swing the Raiders played the 2 best teams in the NFC North and the 2 best teams in the AFC South and presented themselves very well. On top of that, they played KC when Mahomes was a full strength so 5 of their 7 games this season have come against some of the top teams in the NFL. This team is better than their 3-4 record. Detroit comes in with a 3-3-1 record on the season and they are getting outgained by an average of 41 YPG (379 on offense / 420 on defense). Their defense has been very poor ranking 31st in the NFL in total defense ahead of only Cincinnati. The Lions have allowed at least 430 yards in 3 of their last 4 games. They also allow 130 YPG on the ground which is a bad match up here vs an Oakland running game that puts up 131 YPG. That should open things up for QB Derek Carr and we look for the Raider offense to have a big game vs a Detroit defense that has allowed at least 23 points in all but one game this season. Oakland wins and covers at home. |
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11-02-19 | Virginia +2.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 28 h 1 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Cavaliers (+) over North Carolina Tar Heels, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #337 |
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10-27-19 | Jets +7.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 15-29 | Loss | -140 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
ASA 10* TOP GAME PLAY ON NY Jets +7.5 over Jacksonville, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We love the value here with the Jets. This line tells us that If Jacksonville was @ the Jets the line would be around a pick-em with the Jags potentially even favored. We just don’t see that. This line is too high and now with Sam Darnold back at QB we feel these teams are actually pretty close which would make Jacksonville -3 or -3.5 here, NOT -6.5. In this game we get the Jets coming in off an embarrassment on Monday Night football. They lost 33-0 to New England, not a huge surprise, and had 6 turnovers. The Patriots defensive schemes can do that to the best of offenses. We often see teams play much better off games like this. Often you can get some line value coming off a Monday Night game like that as people see a team struggle or get shutout and are reluctant to wager on them the next week. We definitely have that in this game. Let’s not forget a week earlier this NY Jets team, with Darnold back at the helm, beat Dallas. Now they play a so-so team in Jacksonville who comes in with a 3-4 record and trending downward in our opinion. We look for the Jets offense to play much better in this game. They are off a game facing a New England defense that has been historically good this year and now facing a Jacksonville defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league in most key stats (total defense, Yards per play defense, rush defense, and pass defense). They will also be without 3 key LB’s in this game and that means Jacksonville is down to 1 LB who’s played more than 1 snap this season. Those are key cluster injuries to a very important position. Most wouldn’t know it but the Jets have a top 10 defense on a yards per play basis allowing just 5.3 – Jags allow 5.9. The Jets offensive stats are very poor but not reflective of the current offense. They are a completely different offense with Darnold at the helm and the play calling reflects that. He has played in just 3 games but has led NY to all but one of their TD’s on the season. Also remember, that 2 of those games came against New England and Buffalo, two of the top three defenses in the NFL in total yards allowed. They are facing a Jacksonville team that won 27-17 @ Cincinnati (who’s now 0-7) last week but were trailing 10-9 in the fourth quarter and the Jags were the beneficiary of a pick 6 for 7 of their 27 points. QB Gardner Minshew was the talk of the NFL in his first few starts but now that there is film on him, he’s come back down to earth a bit and the defenses have adjusted. In his last 2 games, Minshew has completed just 29 of his 61 pass attempts (47.5%) with only 1 TD and 1 interception. He also had his two lowest QB ratings in those 2 most recent games. In their last 2 games vs the Saints & Bengals, the Jaguars had 22 total offensive possessions and Minshew led them to ONE touchdown. That’s it. He’s struggling and if that means Jacksonville has to rely on their running game, they are facing a Jets defense that ranks #2 in the NFL allowing only 3.3 yards per carry. We see this as a tight game throughout and one the Jets can absolutely win. Getting +7 or more here is worth a solid play in this one. |
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10-26-19 | Oklahoma State +10.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 17 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State Cowboys (+) over Iowa State Cyclones, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #169 |
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10-20-19 | Ravens +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 28 h 52 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Baltimore +3 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET Seattle comes in with a shaky 5-1 record in our opinion. Four of their five wins have come down to the wire with margins of 1, 1, 2, and 4 points. Their only comfortable win was @ Arizona. All of their 5 wins have come against teams that are currently at or below .500 and again, most were decided in the last few minutes of play. The only team they’ve faced that currently has a winning record, the Saints, beat them here on their home field. Both of these teams come off deceiving results last week. Baltimore beat Cincinnati 23-17 but dominated the game outgaining the Bengals by 250 yards. Seattle was down 20-6 @ Cleveland and had to claw back to pick up a 32-28 win and were aided by 4 Browns turnovers (just 1 for Seattle). The Ravens lead the NFL in total offense averaging 450 YPG and their YPG differential is an impressive +100 (Seattle’s is +40). The Ravens also lead the NFL in rushing at 205 YPG and they are playing into a Seattle defense that allows 4.7 YPC (25th in the NFL). Their balanced attack with QB Jackson mixing in the passing game should keep the Seattle defense that allows 6.0 YPP (25th in the NFL) off balance. Seattle’s once vaunted home field advantage isn’t so great anymore. They are just 9-7 SU their last 16 home games and their ATS mark here is 6-11 their last 17 (0-3 ATS this year). They have not been impressive here this year with a 1-point win over an 0-6 Cincinnati team (Bengals outgained Seattle by 197 yards), a loss to New Orleans, and a 1-point win over the Rams who misses a FG as time expired which would have won the game. Baltimore, on the other hand, thrives in this role with a 6-0-1 ATS mark as a road underdog. We give the Ravens a great shot at the win and if not, we’re guessing it comes to the wire so any points are valuable here. |
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10-19-19 | Colorado v. Washington State -12 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington State Cougars (-) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #372 |
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10-14-19 | Lions +4 v. Packers | Top | 22-23 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Detroit +4 over Green Bay, Monday at 8:15 PM ET Green Bay is off a big win @ Dallas but looking at the stats they were quite fortunate. The Cowboys outgained GB by 228 yards and averaged a whopping 8.2 YPP vs the Packer defense. Green Bay’s offense only averaged 5.2 YPP in the game. Dallas had 3 big turnovers which contributed to the Packer win. Green Bay is not quite as good as their 4-1 record might indicates as they are getting outgained by -40 YPG and -0.6 YPP. The defense looked great early but they’ve definitely come back to earth. After completely shutting down a bad Chicago offense in their season opener, the GB defense has allowed an average of 6.2 YPP over their last 4 games. Detroit has a situational advantage here coming off a bye. They have also beaten Green Bay 4 straight times including 2 wins here at Lambeau which gives them confidence coming in. The Lions have played a tough schedule beating the Chargers and Eagles. They blew a big lead @ Arizona to open the season in a game that ended in a tie and their only loss was vs the Chiefs in a game Detroit led with under 1:00 minute remaining. The Lions have scored at least 30 points in each of their last 4 meetings with Green Bay and with the Packer defense not as good as people are making them out to be, Detroit could get there again. All of Detroit’s games this year have been decided by 4 points or less and we see another close one here. Take the points. |
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10-13-19 | 49ers v. Rams -3 | Top | 20-7 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 34 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON LA Rams -3 over San Francisco, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET We love this spot for the Rams. They have had a full 10 days to get ready for this one after their 30-29 road loss @ Seattle last Thursday. It was their 2nd of back to back losses after they lost to Tampa the previous Sunday. Now you have the team that was in last year’s Super Bowl sitting at 3-2 in a must win spot at home. The Niners, on the other hand, come in on a short week after beating Cleveland Monday night. So San Francisco is undefeated at 4-0 but they come into this game overvalued in our opinion. The four teams they’ve beaten are all currently under .500 and they have a combined record of just 5-15. Last year when these teams met in LA the Rams were -10.5 favorites and now they are laying only a FG? We realize Niner QB Garoppolo didn’t play in that game and SF looks improved but should this line really be a full 7.5 points off from last season? The value and situation absolutely favor LA here. In the Sean McVay era, the Rams have lost back to back games only twice and the rebounded with win and cover their next game both times. Historically NFL home favorites off Thursday night games (extra prep time) facing teams off Monday night games (short week) have covered 9 of 12 times. San Fran’s defense has looked good this year but let’s keep in mind that all of their opponents have an offense ranked 18th or lower (offensive efficiency via Football Outsiders) and 3 of those teams rank 25th or lower. The QB’s they’ve faced this year are Mason Rudolph, Andy Dalton, Baker Mayfield, and Jameis Winston. This week they take a step up facing Jared Goff. Now to the LA defense. After holding their first 3 opponents to 49 total points, the LA defense wasn’t great the last 2 weeks including last week @ Seattle where they allowed 30 points. However, the Seattle offense ranks 3rd in the NFL in efficiency which is far better than any offense SF has faced. They’ve already faced Russell Wilson, Cam Newton when he was healthy, and Drew Brees who are all far better than an QB the Niners have faced. We expect the Rams defense, which is very talented to play much better at home after two somewhat embarrassing performances. We also look for the offense to play well vs a 49er defense with solid stats because they’ve played weak offenses. This is a much, much bigger game for the experienced Rams and we like them to win by more than a FG. |
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10-13-19 | Bengals +12 v. Ravens | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 21 h 27 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Cincinnati +12 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Ravens continue to be overvalued by the oddsmakers and the public. This team is simply not very good. Their defense ranks 31st allowing 6.7 YPP and the only team that is worse are the hapless Dolphins. The Ravens wins have come against Miami, Arizona, and Pittsburgh. The Arizona & Pittsburgh wins came down to the wire and last week the game with the Steelers, who were playing their 3rd string QB in the 4th quarter, went to OT. Despite playing an easy schedule, their only double digit win was @ Miami to open the season. The Bengals are 0-5 but they’ve been competitive more often than not with 3 of their 5 losses coming by 4 points or less. They’ve also played much better on the road this year taking Seattle & Buffalo, both better teams than Baltimore, to the wire in 1 and 4 points losses respectively. Cincy was +9 @ Seattle and +6.5 @ Buffalo and now they are getting double digits at division rival Baltimore? The value is absolutely on Cincinnati here. Laying double digits with a poor defense is not a way to get rich quick when wagering on football. Baltimore is already 0-2 ATS as a home favorite this season and just 10-22-1 ATS their last 33 games as a home chalk. Going back to 2010 they are 4-11 ATS as a double digit favorite. Cincinnati has lost by more than 11 points only twice in the last 20 meetings between these two AFC North rivals. The last time a team in this series was favored by double digits was way back in 2001 and the dog has also covered 9 of the last 10. This one should be close. Take the points. |
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10-12-19 | Memphis v. Temple +5.5 | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 23 h 60 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Temple Owls (+) over Memphis Tigers, Saturday at 12 PM ET: Game #128 |
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10-07-19 | Browns +5 v. 49ers | Top | 3-31 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
ASA play on: Cleveland Browns +5 over San Francisco 49ers, Monday 8:20PM ET - When we compare the key stats between these two teams we see some clear advantages on paper for San Francisco but we never just look at the numbers. We dig deeper. The Niners have one of the best rush defenses statistically in the NFL allowing just 3.4 yards per rush which ranks them 3rd. But they’ve played the Bengals (30th), Steelers (27th) and Bucs (24th) who are three of the worst rushing offenses in the NFL when it comes to yards per rush attempt. San Francisco will be tested here by a Browns offense that is 9th in RYPA at 4.9. That’s a big key for Cleveland as a strong running game takes pressure off QB Mayfield and opens up the play action pass. Sticking to that theme, the 49ers defense is ranked as one of the best in the NFL, but again, that’s a byproduct of the poor offenses they’ve faced. The Browns on the other hand are starting to look like a team that was hyped to be a contender in the AFC this season. Cleveland has the 8th most efficient defense in the NFL and have faced two of the best offenses already in Baltimore and the L.A. Rams. Jimmy G and the 49ers are 3-0 on the season but the three wins have come against teams with a combined 3-12 SU record. San Francisco is off a bye but that hasn’t helped them in the past as they are on an 0-6 ATS streak in that scheduling situation. The Niners are 7-17 ATS their last 24 home games and the last time they covered as a home favorite was 2014 with Jim Harbaugh as the coach. In fact, the 49ers are 1-12-1 ATS as a home favorite their last fourteen. Cleveland on the other hand excels as an underdog with a 9-5 ATS record dating back to the start of last season. SF has benefited with 2.3 takeaways per game, but they’ve also turned in over 2.7 times per game which is worst in the NFL. Don’t trust a favorite that doesn’t take care of the football. PLAY ON BROWNS! |
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10-06-19 | Broncos +7 v. Chargers | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 29 h 8 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver +7 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET This line looks fishy to us. The 0-4 Denver Broncos only getting 6.5 points? Shouldn’t this be 7 or higher? A few spots have +7 by the majority are at +6.5. The Chargers were favored by 7 and 7.5 in the two meetings last year. Looks like the oddsmakers are betting people to take the Chargers in this one. We actually like this Denver team. They are much better than their 0-4 record. They’ve lost 2 games on FG’s as time expired to Chicago and Jacksonville. They lost by 11 @ Green Bay in a game that should have been much closer as the yardage was dead even and the Packers scored on a 37 yard TD drive and 5 yard TD drive following Denver turnovers. We’re not sold quite yet on the Chargers. They are very close to being 1-3 with their only win coming vs the hapless Dolphins. Their other win was at home in OT vs the Colts in a game where Indy kicker Adam Vinitieri missed 2 FG’s and an XP. If not for that, the Colts win that game. Even last week vs Miami, it was a 20-10 game entering the fourth quarter and they outgained the Fins by just 157 yards and they were +1.0 yard per play. While that may look impressive, every other team that has played Miami has outgained them by at least 195 yards and were at least +2.8 YPP. LA also has very little home field advantage and we wouldn’t be surprised to see just as many Bronco fans in the seats on Sunday. The Chargers are 0-2 ATS at home this year and just 6-15 ATS their last 21 when playing host. This is a division game so while Denver is 0-4, they’ve been very competitive and we expect them to go all out here. The underdog is 12-4-2 ATS the last 16 meetings in this AFC West rivalry and we’ll call for another underdog cover. |
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10-06-19 | Jaguars v. Panthers -3 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 26 h 2 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Carolina -3 over Jacksonville, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET This is a tough spot for the Jags as this will be their 3rd road game in 4 weeks including last week’s come from behind win @ Denver. Last week Jacksonville fell behind 17-3 @ Denver and had to battle their way back to get the last second win with a FG as time expired. The fact is, the Broncos ran 22 fewer offensive plays in that game and it still took a late FG to win the game for the Jaguars. Denver outgained Jacksonville on a YPP basis 6.9 to 6.0 but the Bronco defense allowed RB Leonard Fournette to run wild racking up 225 yards on the ground. Fournette had not topped 70 yards rushing in any game leading up to that performance so we see that as an outlier. Everyone is talking about the impact that QB Minshew has had on the Jags but how about Carolina QB Allen getting some notice? He gives the Panthers a much better chance to win compared to a banged up Cam Newton who couldn’t throw the ball down the field at all. Allen is now 2-0 as a starter and has thrown for almost 500 yards and 4 TD’s with no interceptions. His QBR is 65.8 which currently would rank him 6th in the NFL if he had enough snaps under his belt. For comparison’s sake, Minshew’s QBR is 47.0 which is 18th in the NFL and while we feel he is a very solid rookie, the hype has become a little much. Minshew also tweaked his knee late in last week’s game and is not 100% and was held out of practice until midweek. His counterpart Allen is not just another guy thrown in under center, he was a 5* QB recruit that actually beat out Heisman winner and Arizona QB Kyler Murray at Texas A&M prompting Murray to transfer to Oklahoma. He’s definitely not just another guy. Another aspect of Carolina’s team that gets overlooked is their defense which is really good. The Panthers currently rank 4th in the NFL in total defense allowing only 287 YPG and 2nd in YPP defense allowing just 4.3. Since losing 30-27 to the Rams in the season opener, Carolina has not allowed more than 20 points. They are very close to being 4-0 rather than 2-2 with close losses to the Rams & an emerging Tampa team. We would argue that if Allen had been under center since day one, this team might be 4-0. Add in the strong ATS stat that has Jacksonville just 4-20 ATS their last 24 games vs NFC team and this one looks solid. Just a very good situation to grab a surging Carolina team at home in this one. |
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10-06-19 | Patriots -15 v. Redskins | Top | 33-7 | Win | 100 | 26 h 1 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON New England -15 over Washington, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Horrible match up for the Skins. It looks like Washington head coach Jay Gruden will be starting rookie Dwayne Haskins at QB or veteran Colt McCoy which is not ideal vs the Patriots top notch defense. Haskins came in last week vs a bad Giant defense and threw 3 interceptions in their 24-3 loss and they were outgained by over 200 yards. McCoy hasn’t taken a snap this season and has had very little practice time with his receivers due to his recovery from last year’s broken leg. If this offense with Haskins at the helm could only score 3 points vs a Giant defense that had allowed at least 28 points in every other game, what are they going to do against a New England defense that has allowed one TD the ENTIRE season. While this line is obviously high, it’s nothing new to the Patriots who have now been favored by more than 14 points three times this season. They controlled the other two games they were tabbed big favorites vs Miami & NY Jets outscoring them by a combined 73-14 and we’d put Washington in that terrible team category at the moment. There are also rumblings of Gruden being fired as early as next week so there are plenty of distractions to go along with this 0-4 team. Expect New England to play very well as they are coming off a poor outing. They did beat Buffalo 16-10 but they were outgained drastically by the Bills and Tom Brady had his worst QB rating in 13 years in that game. The Redskin defense had allowed 30 or more points in every game until the Giants scored 24 last week. The Patriots coming off a poor offensive showing should have a field day against this defense on Sunday. They shouldn’t have to score much to get this cover either. We don’t anticipate Washington doing much of anything offensively so New England scoring 24 or more will probably get this done. Lay it with the Patriots. Our MATH MODEL projects a Patriot 35-10 win giving us an easy cover. |
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10-05-19 | Iowa v. Michigan -3.5 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 19 h 9 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan Wolverines (-) over Iowa Hawkeyes, Saturday at 12 PM ET: Game #356 |
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09-28-19 | Ohio State -16.5 v. Nebraska | Top | 48-7 | Win | 100 | 51 h 9 m | Show |
NOTE: If you do not have access to the First Half Line then make a Full Game Wager on this one. Our recommendation is for a First Half Wager per the analysis here: ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ohio State Buckeyes (-) on FIRST HALF LINE over Nebraska Cornhuskers, Saturday at 8 PM ET: Game #195 |
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09-27-19 | Duke +3 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 45-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Duke Blue Devils (+) over Virginia Tech Hokies, Friday at 7 PM ET: Game #105 |
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09-26-19 | Eagles +4.5 v. Packers | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL TOP PLAY ON Philadelphia +4.5 over Green Bay, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET This is simply a huge game for the Eagles. They are currently 1-2 on the season and can’t afford to drop to 1-3 and still feel they have a decent shot at the playoffs with Dallas currently rolling through the NFC East. Their 2 losses came by 4 points @ Atlanta and 3-points vs Detroit so they are fairly close to being 2-1 or even 3-0. On their final possession last week they had the ball in Detroit territory but were unable to get into FG position for the tie. At Atlanta they had the ball inside the Falcon 20-yard line in their final possession but came up short on 4th down. They’ve definitely had their chances. If tonight’s game goes as we expect, it will be another very close game and we’re getting a full +4 to +4.5 points which would have covered or at worst pushed Philly’s first 2 losses. Green Bay is 3-0 but they have been outgained in every game and they are getting outgained by an average of 42 YPG. They have been the beneficiary of a +6 turnover ratio after just 3 games (1st in the NFL). While their defense is vastly improved it’s not like we are talking about a top 5 defense right now. As good as they’ve been, they are still ranked only 13th in total defense. It’s the turnovers they’ve created that are the difference so far this year and we feel that simply doesn’t continue (+2 turnovers per game). The offensive numbers have been poor. They are 3-0 despite scoring only 19 PPG (23rd in the NFL). They are ranked 28th in total offense and 28th in yards per play. The most concerning offensive stat in our opinion is their 3rd down conversion rate is just 25% ahead of only Miami & NY Jets. That ends offensive possessions early and is obviously a drive killer. Philly, on the other hand, is at 56% rate on 3rd down which 2nd in the NFL only behind Dallas. Right now we feel the Eagles are undervalued and Green Bay is overvalued right now. Take the points with Philadelphia. |
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09-22-19 | Broncos +8.5 v. Packers | Top | 16-27 | Loss | -130 | 22 h 25 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Denver +8.5 over Green Bay, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET
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09-22-19 | Falcons v. Colts | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Indianapolis (pick-em) over Atlanta, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET This line opened with Indy -3 which is where we thought it should be. The public remains enamored with Atlanta as they get bet hard on a regular basis. That has dropped this line down to -1 and now we’ll jump on the Colts. We were on Atlanta last week as a home dog which was an entirely different situation at home off a loss @ Minnesota. The Falcons picked up that home win over the Eagles and now they go on the road vs an AFC team playing their home opener. While bettors still love the Falcons, the fact it since their Super Bowl appearance in 2016, the Bird have a SU record of just 18-16. Indy comes in 1-1 having taken a very good Charger team to OT in the opener (loss) and then upsetting Tennessee on the road last Sunday. While this team lost Andrew Luck at QB, his replacement Jacoby Brissett is more than capable especially with a very good running game and one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Brissett is completing 69% of his passes with 5 TD’s and just 1 interception on the season. That Indy running game is averaging 185 YPG (2nd in the NFL) and they are facing a Falcon defense that was gashed for 172 yards in their only road game @ Minnesota. The knew they could control the game on the ground (Minny won 28-12) so much so that they only attempted 10 passes the entire game. The Falcons are 1-8 ATS their last 9 as road underdogs and with the Colts now just having to win at home, we’ll grab them. |
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09-21-19 | Washington -6 v. BYU | Top | 45-19 | Win | 100 | 47 h 10 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Huskies (-) over BYU Cougars, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #349 |
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09-15-19 | Eagles v. Falcons +2 | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 47 h 33 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Atlanta +2 over Philadelphia, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET Hard to say teams are in must win mode in the 2nd week of the season, however we can put the Falcons in that category. After losing @ Minnesota to start the season (not surprising) they host the Eagles on Sunday night. After this game the Falcons are on the road for 3 of their next 4 games so this game becomes extremely important. In their loss in Minneapolis, the Birds are +9 first downs & +75 yards. However, they turned the ball over 3 times and had a punt blocked as well. All four of those miscues led to Minnesota TD’s which accounted to ALL 28 of their points. Here they face a Philadelphia team that got down 17-0 at home – 20-7 at half – vs a Washington team that was a 10 point dog in the game. They came back to win 32-27 but weren’t overly impressive in their opener. The Philly defense allowed Case Keenum and the Skins to throw for 380 yards and 3 TD’s. Now they face a much more potent Atlanta passing game, especially at home where QB Matt Ryan had a 118 passer rating last year compared to 99 on the road. These two met in last year’s season opener in Philadelphia. The Eagles scored a late TD with just over 2:00 minutes remaining to pull off the 18-12 come from behind win despite getting outgained by the Falcons. Matt Ryan is 10-1 ATS in home openers and he gets another win here. Take the points with Atlanta. |
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09-15-19 | Seahawks v. Steelers -3.5 | Top | 28-26 | Loss | -105 | 39 h 59 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Pittsburgh -3.5 over Seattle, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET the Steelers are coming off an embarrassing performance on Sunday night @ New England and we have a feeling they bounce back and play very well on Sunday in their home opener. Roethlisberger has been unbeatable (8-0 ATS) when coming off a loss of 20 or more points in his career. We suspect he’ll have a big day vs a Seattle defense that allowed Bengal QB Andy Dalton to shred them for a career high 418 yards last Sunday. Seattle picked up the win in that game 21-20 but they were lucky to do so getting outgained by nearly 200 yards. In the game the Bengals averaged 6.1 yards per play to just 4.8 for Seattle. The offensive line looked shaky at best paving the way for only 72 rushing yards while Russell Wilson was only able to pass for 160 yards. Looks like the Steeler defense will be a reprieve this week after facing Tom Brady and the precise New England offense last week. We’ll give the Pittsburgh defense a break last week as they did look terrible but much of that we feel was the New England offense. This is still a defense that finished 6th in total defense and YPP defense last year. They’ll look much better this week and have a chip on their shoulder based on last week’s poor performance. Seattle’s ATS numbers as an underdog are solid, however they have been terrible in their road openers going 2-12 SU / 1-12-1 ATS since 2005. On the other side, when the Steelers are coming off a loss and favored by 3 or more points, they are 18-5 ATS since 2010. This one sets up nicely for Pittsburgh and we’ll lay the points. |
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09-14-19 | Oklahoma -22.5 v. UCLA | Top | 48-14 | Win | 100 | 52 h 42 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma Sooners (-) over UCLA Bruins, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET: Game #191 |
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09-09-19 | Texans +7.5 v. Saints | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 78 h 9 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Houston +7.5 over New Orleans, Monday at 7:10 PM ET Houston is too good to be getting a full TD in this game. We’re talking about a playoff team from a year ago (11-5 record) that upgraded their weak spot (offensive line) by adding LT Laremy Tunsil, one of the best in the game. They are facing a New Orleans team that might be a bit overhyped entering the season. The Saints are also a notoriously slow starting team going 0-10 ATS and 1-9 SU in their first 2 games of the season (over the last 5 years). They are also 0-5 ATS since 2015 as home favorites in September. Last year if you remember, in the opener the Saints were favored by 10 at home vs a bad Tampa team with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB. The Bucs won the game 48-40. In their 2nd game, also at home, they barely held on to beat Cleveland by 3 points. Now we have one of the better teams in the AFC getting a full TD? We’ll take that. Houston has a solid defense and with Deshaun Watson at QB, they can definitely score enough points to keep up with the Saints if needed. It’s also been a very solid investment to take Monday Night underdogs during the first week of the season as they are 25-15 ATS since the late 80’s. We think Houston gives the Saints all they can handle on Monday and an outright win wouldn’t be a surprise. Houston and the points here. |
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09-08-19 | Steelers +6 v. Patriots | Top | 3-33 | Loss | -120 | 32 h 57 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Pittsburgh +6 over New England, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET The Pats are notorious for their slow starts as they tend extend their preseason into the first few games of the regular season so to speak. Head coach Belichick adjusts and tweaks early in the season until he finds the line ups he feels are most effective. Last year the Patriots lost to Jacksonville & Detroit early in the season, two teams that ended the year with losing records. A year earlier New England lost to both Carolina & KC, both games at home, early in the season. They were favored in all of those games and were -7 or more in 3 of the 4. Brady may take some time to adjust without top target Gronkowski in the line up and their offensive line could be a problem this year. Starting LT Trent Brown left in the off-season and he is being replaced Isaiah Wynn who hasn’t played a snap yet in the NFL. They are also starting a guard who is a career back up. Pats will be good but it may take some time this year. We are much higher on Pittsburgh than many. We feel this will be an addition by subtraction situation with RB Bell & WR Brown, two problems in the locker room, now gone. We’re hearing the chemistry for the Steelers is MUCH better right now than it was at any point last year. Roethlisberger is back and he has plenty of weapons offensively. We have the Steeler defense pegged as one of the best in the NFL this year (finished 6th in the NFL last year in YPG & YPP allowed). Roethlisberger has been historically very good as an underdog with a 34-18-3 ATS lifetime record. Even more impressive he has a winning outright record 30-25 SU in those games as an underdog! We realize that New England has done very well vs Pittsburgh, however we think this is a different circumstance. Take Pitt + the points. |
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09-08-19 | Colts +7 v. Chargers | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 51 h 5 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Indianapolis +7 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET We think the betting market has overreacted to the loss of Andrew Luck for the Colts. This line was at Chargers -3 and now has jumped to -6.5 and some at -7. That’s move is too much in our opinion. While Andrew Luck was very important to this team, the Colts are solid across the board. They were in the top 10 in many defensive categories last year including scoring, total yards, yards per play, and yards per rush. On offense Jacoby Brissett is a more than capable back up and we actually consider him a middle of the pack starter in the NFL. He’s not great, but he’s not bad either. He’ll be operating behind an offensive line that is definitely one of the best in the NFL. They were ranked the 4th best rush blocking unit and 2nd best at pass blocking in the entire NFL last year by Football Outsiders. All 5 starters are back up front so they will be very good again. The LA Chargers are without their top RB Melvin Gordon and their home field advantage is very minimal at their make shift soccer stadium in LA which holds 27,000. In fact, for many of their home games there are just as many opposing fans as Charger fans. They were just 2-6 at home ATS last year. Our word is the Colt players really like Brissett. The locker room is very tight and we feel they will play on Sunday to show everyone this team was and is more than just Andrew Luck. Expect an inspired effort from a very solid Colts team as they give the Chargers all they can handle on Sunday. Take the points. |
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09-08-19 | Bills +3 v. Jets | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 48 h 4 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Buffalo +3 over NY Jets, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET This line says that the Bills & Jets are rated basically the same and on a neutral field we’d have a pick-em game. We disagree. We have Buffalo rated as the stronger team and we’ll take the points here. We’re getting a strong defensive divisional underdog which always makes us sit up and take notice. Buffalo’s defense was outstanding last year. They finished 2nd in the NFL in total defense behind Baltimore only. They also finished 3rd in YPP defense and #1 in the NFL in pass defense. The Bills split with the Jets last year but a closer look reveals they dominated despite the 1-1 record. Buffalo won at NY 41-10 as an underdog last year and lost a tight game at home 27-23. In those two games combined, the Bills had 820 total yards to just 447 for the Jets. Their defense held NY to 3.6 & 4.7 yards per play. Expect them to stifle the Jets offense again on Sunday. Many discount the preseason but we do make note that Buffalo was 4-0 and looked very good. They have very solid continuity with the entire coaching staff back this year. The Jets, on the other hand, have a new head coach Adam Gase and new coordinators on both sides of the ball. While we expect New York to be improved, there will be a transition period with Gase in charge. There are a few technical points that back the Bills here as well. First, the underdog has dominated this series winning 9 of the last 11 meetings OUTRIGHT. Second, NFL division underdogs in week 1 of the season are a money making 17-4 ATS over the last 5 seasons. Our numbers have Buffalo’s chance of winning outright at more than 50%. We definitely have to take the points with the Bills. |
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09-07-19 | Nebraska -4 v. Colorado | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -107 | 51 h 45 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nebraska Cornhuskers (-) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #331 |
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08-31-19 | Virginia -2.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 30-14 | Win | 100 | 75 h 31 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Virginia Cavaliers (-) over Pittsburgh Panthers, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #203 |
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01-20-19 | Rams v. Saints -3 | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 19 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON New Orleans -3 over LA Rams, Sunday at 3:00 PM ET The home team has won each of the last 5 NFC & AFC Championships for a perfect 10-0 SU mark (8-2 ATS). We like New Orleans to do the same on Sunday. Last week the Rams came out and shocked the Cowboys with their gameplan which was to run the ball right down their throat. LA did so with great success rushing for 273 yards which took the pressure off of 3rd year signal caller Jared Goff. That worked last week at home, however we don’t see LA dominating the ground game this week vs New Orleans who has the #1 rush defense in the NFL allowing just 3.6 YPG and only 78 YPG on the ground. In their first meeting this year, the Saints held the Rams to just 92 YPG on the ground and we see a similar outcome on Sunday. That will make Jared Goff have to win this game and we’re not sure he’s ready for that. If it comes down to Brees vs Goff to win this one, we’ll take the veteran QB at home all day long. Goff has faced 6 different Super Bowl winning QB’s (Brees included) in 12 games over his career. The Rams are just 3-9 ATS in those games. Goff also have very good numbers at home this year, but on the road they dropped off dramatically (68% down to 60% on the road / 2,737 yards passing at home down to 1950 on the road / 22 TD’s and 9 picks at home to just 10 TD’s and 9 picks on the road). The Saints are a perfect 6-0 at home in playoff games under head coach Sean Payton and QB Drew Brees (14 TD’s and just 2 interceptions for Brees in those games). They are veterans who have been here while Goff and head coach McVay are playing in just their 3rd ever playoff game. We really like the way the New Orleans defense played down the stretch. If you take out their meaningless season finale vs Carolina when they rested players having already clinched the NFC South, the Saint defense allowed just 14.5 PPG over their last 8 games. Last week the New Orleans offense scored only 20 points, however they rolled up 420 yards so that score was pretty deceiving (outgained Eagles by almost 200 yards). We expect them to put more points on the board this week while we like the New Orleans defense to at least slow down the Rams a bit. The Saints won the first meeting here 45-35 and while we don’t expect quite the offensive output we saw in that one, we do expect a similar result with New Orleans winning by a TD or more. Since 2012, no team that made the Super Bowl has played a road game. It’s tough to win on the road in the NFL playoffs and we don’t expect the Rams to change the streak on Sunday. Lay it with New Orleans in the dome. |
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01-13-19 | Chargers v. Patriots -4 | Top | 28-41 | Win | 100 | 24 h 54 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON New England -4 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR The Chargers have become a very popular underdog in this game and we just don’t see it. First of all, the situation is terrible for LA. They are playing their 3rd straight road game and 2nd of back to back games on the east coast. Secondly, it’s their 4th road game in 5 weeks. Of course the Pats are rested and coming off a bye so huge situational advantage to New England. HUGE coaching advantage to the Patriots as well. Bill Belichick has more playoff wins than any coach in NFL history and it’s not close. He has a record of 28-11 in the post-season while the coach with the 2nd most wins in the playoffs is Tom Landry with 20, a full 8-games less than Belichick. Giving him two full weeks to prepare for a home game vs Anthony Lynn who is coaching in just the 2nd playoff game of his career gives the Pats a distinct advantage. Last week the Chargers were in a beneficial situation playing a Baltimore team they faced just a few weeks earlier. They knew the Ravens haven’t been a prolific passing team since QB Lamar Jackson took over, they also were able to see the funky rush offense that Baltimore implemented 6 weeks earlier. Facing it already gave the defense a big advantage and they sold out to stop the run and it worked. This is a much different situation having no idea the game plan that Belichick will employ here and we guess it will be a very good one. Brady and company are VERY tough to beat at home where they are 8-0 this season (all wins but one coming by at least a TD) and they are 20-3 SU at home in playoff games with Brady under center. The Chargers offense hasn’t looked all that great over the last month or so. Philip Rivers looks a bit tired and his numbers have fallen off drastically. He had a QBR of more than 80 in 6 of his first 12 games this year. Since then he’s had 3 of his lowest QBR ratings for the season in the last 5 weeks and hasn’t topped 80 in any of those games. He’s thrown just 5 TD passes in his last 5 games. His running game won’t be what it was earlier in the year as Melvin Gordon’s knees are both banged up and he isn’t nearly as explosive as he was earlier in the year. Over their last 3 games the Chargers have averaged just 18 PPG on 239 YPG. Last week they held on to win 23-17 but LA was gifted 3 turnovers by the Ravens and many of their points came on very short fields. In fact, they scored only 1 TD in the game and their 3 of their 5 FG drives were 16-yards or less. The Pats were the only team in the NFL with an undefeated home record (8-0) and they averaged 33 PPG at home never scoring less than 24. They played 4 winning teams at home (Minnesota, KC, Houston, and Indy) and beat those teams by an average score of 33-23 and outgained them by an average of 78 YPG. Defensively the Patriots got better as the year went on, just as they did last season. They held 5 of their last 6 opponents to 17 points or less. The only team that topped 20 points on New England in Foxboro this season was KC. The Chargers were obviously very good on the road this year but this is the toughest situation they’ve faced as far as travel situation (3 straight road + back to back east coast) plus opponent. LA pulled the road upset last week but that is highly unlikely this week. In fact, teams that win in the wildcard round as an underdog are just 12-48 SU (21.39 ATS) the following week. The Patriots get the home win and cover. |
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01-12-19 | Cowboys +8.5 v. Rams | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Dallas +8.5 over LA Rams, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET We feel this is a very tough match up for the Rams. Dallas has the better defense ranking 9th in defensive efficiency (Football Outsiders) while the Rams rank 19th. Worse yet for the Rams, they struggle to stop the run allowing 5.1 YPC (last in the NFL) and they rank 28th in defensive efficiency vs the run. That’s a bad match up when facing a very good running team like Dallas. The Cowboys rank 8th in the NFL in rushing YPG and found their groove last week rushing for 164 yards in their win over Seattle. Even more impressive, the Cowboy defense held the league’s top rated rushing attack to just 73 yards on 24 carries – less than 3 YPC. With Todd Gurley banged up as well for the Rams, the Cowboys should have a solid advantage in the running game which will be a big key in this game. LA only faced 3 teams this year ranked in the top 10 in rushing which makes their 5.1 YPC allowed even more concerning. Those 3 games were vs Seattle (twice) and New Orleans. They lost by 10 to New Orleans and both Seattle games went to the wire with LA winning close. That looks like a precursor to what might happen in this game. If you take a close look at the overall schedule this year, you’ll see that the Rams mopped up on the worst teams in the NFL but that wasn’t the case when they stepped up to play a good team. In their games vs playoff teams LA was just 1-5-1 ATS (4-3 SU) with an average score of 32-32. They outgained those teams by just 22 YPG. Dallas also played 7 playoff teams and the Cowboys were 4-3 ATS (3-4 SU) with an average score of 17-20 but they outgained those teams by 43 YPG. This line is a full TD (-7.5 in some spots) and the only teams the Rams beat by more than 7 this year were the Cardinals, Niners, Raiders, Lions, and Chargers. You can see the only good team on that list is the Chargers. Dallas, on the other hand, stepped up when they were tabbed a big underdog winning all 3 games OUTRIGHT this year when getting 7 or more points. Since 2003, dogs of a TD or more in the divisional round have been a money making 19-11-1 ATS (63%). Our eye test tells us Dallas was the better team over the 2nd half of the season (LA came out of the gate hot) winning 8 of their last 9 games with their only loss coming @ Indy a week after the Boys clinched the NFC East Title (can you say letdown spot – we were on Indy for a Top Game in that one). The Rams ran through the first half of their schedule but lost to the Saints, Bears, and Eagles down the stretch. On other thing to keep in mind is that while this is a home game for the Rams, you can bet the Cowboys will have more fans in the stands. LA’s following is not great for home games. Too many points here as we give Dallas a decent shot at the outright win. |
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01-07-19 | Alabama v. Clemson +6 | Top | 16-44 | Win | 100 | 38 h 52 m | Show |
ASA CFB 10* PLAY ON Clemson (+) over Alabama, Monday at 8:00 PM ET - We have these teams rated nearly even (Bama should be 2.5 point favorite in our ratings) so whoever happened to be getting points in this game, we feel the value is with the dog. Clemson absolutely dominated Notre Dame in the semi’s winning 30-3 and outgaining the Irish by almost 300 yards. That’s nothing new for this team as they outgained every opponent but one by at least 144 yards. Bama beat Oklahoma 45-34 but outgained the Sooners by just 57 yards. The overall numbers of these teams for the season are almost identical. Clemson averaged 531 YPG on 7.3 YPP. Alabama averaged 530 YPG on 7.9 YPP. Defensively the Tigers allowed just 280 YPG on 4.1 YPP. The Tide just 308 YPG on 4.7 YPP. So for the season Clemson was +251 YPG and +3.2 YPP. Bama was +222 YPG and +3.2 YPP. Clemson’s point differential checked in at +32 PPG. The Tide was +31 PPG. You get the point. Pretty much as close as you could be for a full season as far as statistics go. If we break it down vs good teams only (bowl teams) entering the post-season Clemson had faced 10 bowl teams and outgained them by an average of 236 YPG. Alabama had faced 8 bowl teams and outgained them by 212 yards. Again, very close. Many stick to the rhetoric and Saban is simply tough to top in bowl games. However, the facts tell a different story. Saban is just 3-6 ATS his last 7 bowl/playoff games. Clemson head man Dabo Swinney, on the other hand, is a near perfect 8-1 ATS his last 9 post-season games. You say the SEC was much tougher than the ACC? The SEC is currently 6-5 in their bowl games while the ACC is 5-5. While we will agree the SEC is better, the difference isn’t as drastic as most might think. Bama has a tendency to intimidate opponents beating many of them before the game even starts. They are already in the heads of their opponents before the first kick. That’s not the case with Clemson. The Tigers have no fear of the vaunted Tide. They have already proven the can beat this team in big games. They have met twice in the last three years in the National Championship game and both games went to the wire with Bama winning 45-40 in 2016 & Clemson winning 35-31 in 2017. Last year they met in the semi-final and while Bama won 24-6, it was closer than that as the two were separated by 70 total yards and the Tide returned an interception for a TD in the 4th quarter to break the game open. Breaking down the yardage in their 3 meetings over the last 3 seasons, Clemson actually has the advantage with 1250 total yards to 1110 for Alabama. We predict this one comes down to the wire just as their last two National Championship battles did. Taking the points with Clemson is the value play here. |
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12-30-18 | Browns +7.5 v. Ravens | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
ASA's 10* NFL PLAY ON Cleveland +7.5 over Baltimore, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET Aren’t you wondering why the oddsmakers have not made this line higher than it is? Shouldn’t the Ravens, who must win to get in be a TD chalk at home? The oddsmakers reluctance to move this to minus -7 tells us enough as they can’t afford to put it on a key number and get pounded by the sharps. The Browns with Baker Mayfield continue to play well with a 5-1 SU record their last six games. A win here gives the Browns their first winning season since 2007 which is a big deal for Cleveland. Cleveland dominated the Bengals last week in a 8-point win but the Browns outgained Cincy by nearly 300 yards. The Browns offense is averaging more than 7YPPL in 4 of their last six games and have averaged over 8YPPL twice. The Ravens win and get in but winning by this margin is tough to ask. Baltimore is 5-1 SU with Lamar Jackson at QB and they’ve done it with a dominating ground game averaging 219YPG their last six. The Browns though have a solid rush defense that has been much better of late. In the past three weeks the Browns have faced the Panthers and Bronco’s rush offenses that rank in the top 11 of the league in rushing yards per game. The Browns held the Panthers to just 96 yards rushing and Denver to 32. The Ravens were just favored by -8.5 points at home over Tampa who is far worse that the Browns at this point. Make the smart play here and grab the points. |
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12-30-18 | Raiders v. Chiefs -14 | Top | 3-35 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Kansas City -14 over Oakland, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET The Chiefs need this game to lock up the AFC West. A loss could send them all the way down to the wildcard. We expect them to put up huge numbers offensively against a Raider defense that ranks dead last in the NFL in YPP allowed at 6.2. These two met 4 weeks ago and KC put up 40 points and Mahomes had a huge day with 4 TD passes. KC was up 17 in the 4th quarter in that game and the Oakland offense rallied and put up 33 points for the game. While we anticipate similar numbers from KC here (40+ points) we do not think Oakland will play nearly as well on offense. It’s a bad spot for the Raiders coming off a huge Monday night win over Denver in what might have been the final game ever in Oakland. Now on a short week in a meaningless game on the road we look for the Raiders to just go through the motions as they play out the final game of the season. The Raiders had a similar situation a few weeks ago when they upset Pittsburgh at home only to go on the road the next week and lose 30-16 to the lowly Bengals. The Oakland offense has been OK at home this year but on the road they’ve done next to nothing. They have not topped 23 points on the road this season and they are averaging just 15 PPG away from home this season. Their last 4 road losses have all come by at least 2 TD’s and two of those losses were Cincinnati & San Fran, two of the worst teams in the league. They have been held to 17 or less in 4 of their 7 road games. That won’t come close to getting it done here against the potent and motivated Chiefs. This one will get ugly. |
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12-30-18 | Dolphins v. Bills -5 | Top | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 2 h 7 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Buffalo -5 over Miami, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET This line opened Buffalo -3 now up to -4.5 and even -5 at spots which we feel is justified. Miami was eliminated from playoffs last week as they couldn’t beat a bad Jax team at home losing 17-7 so we don’t expect much of an effort here. We do feel Buffalo will be motivated here off a loss in New England and playing with revenge against the Dolphins from a loss a few weeks back. In that earlier meeting in Miami the Fins won 21-17 as -3.5 point favorites but were outgained 415 yards to 175 yards by the Bills and were outplayed in nearly every facet of the game. Miami was a “fake” 7-7 heading into last week as they had been outgained in 9 straight games and they are minus 100 YPG on the season (Buffalo -5 YPG for comparison). The Bills are 3-4 SU their last 7 games but have outgained those 7 opponents by combined 578 yards (+82 YPG). The Dolphins are 30th in total offense (294 YPG) while Buffalo is 2nd in total defense (298 YPG) so don’t expect Miami to have any success offensively today. Miami is just 1-6 SU on the road with all 6 losses coming by at least 10 points. Will Miami be motivated in cold weather (30 degrees) now that they are out of playoffs? We bet not! Play on the Bills minus the points. |
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12-28-18 | Iowa State v. Washington State -2.5 | Top | 26-28 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 36 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* TOP Washington State (-) over Iowa State, Friday at 9 PM ET - These teams have nearly identical stats on the defensive side of the ball but the Cougars hold a large edge on offense. While the Cyclones averaged 26.8 points on only 359 yards per game this season, Washington State piled up 461.8 yards per game leading the way to producing an average of 38.3 points per game. Keep in mind that while the Cougars have had Gardner Minshew at QB all season long, Iowa State is now using a quarterback that was listed 3rd on the depth chart entering this season! The only two losses that Washington State suffered this season were by 3 points at USC in a game in which they outgained the Trojans by nearly 100 yards and then in the Apple Cup battle versus Washington that was played in snowy conditions that didn't allow Minshew to continue his strong late season run. There certainly won't be any concern with weather in this one as it is played indoors at the Alamodome in San Antonio, TX. This is a big edge for the team with the better offense and that is certainly the Cougars in this match-up. The Cyclones do have some injury concerns in the secondary which could impact their depth in this one and that spells trouble against a passing attack that totaled at least 319 passing yards in every single game this season other than the "snow game" in their season finale. Iowa State is 0-3 ATS this season in non-conference games. The Cougars are 8-3 SU and ATS (including 4-1 SU and ATS this season) in games with a point spread in a range of +3 to -3. With the line move on this game also working in favor of the Cougars this is a fantastic value spot. In our opinion, this is the best team Washington State head coach Mike Leach has had during his time with the Cougars and we like them to bounce back after losing their final regular season game. Certainly it is the best defense Leach has had and we have a feeling the Cyclones will struggle to score points in this game and the Cougars pull away in the 2nd half for a double digit win. Washington State is the play. |
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12-23-18 | Chiefs v. Seahawks +2.5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 25 h 36 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Seattle +2.5 over Kansas City, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET As we stated a few weeks ago when we took Baltimore plus the points vs this KC team, we think the Chiefs are trending down late in the season. After a red hot start, they are just 2-2 their last 4 games and their wins are not overly impressive beating a bad Oakland team 40-33 and then holding on to beat Baltimore at home 27-24 in OT. After covering their first 7 games of the season, the Chiefs are now just 1-5-1 ATS their last 7 games. Seattle is coming off an OT loss at San Fran (we were on the Niners) and they are not quite locked into the playoffs. They are currently in the first wildcard spot and a win here would put them in for sure. Seattle has been very solid at home with their only 2 losses coming at the hands of the Rams (by 2 points) when LA was playing at the top of their game and the Chargers, a game the Seahawks were at the goal line in the final minute with a chance to tie. As a home dog this team is simply a big time money maker with an 11-1-1 ATS record in that situation. Not only that the Seahawks have won 9 of those games outright! On top of that, since 2003 they are also a perfect 5-0 ATS as a home dog in prime time (Sunday Night or Monday Night). Want more? With Russell Wilson as the starting QB the Seahawks are 13-2 SU at home in prime time games. Now to the match up which favors Seattle in our opinion. They are the #1 team in the NFL rushing the ball for 154 YPG while the KC defense cannot stop the run ranking 26th in YPG allowed on the ground and dead last in YPC allowed. That opens up the passing game for Russell Wilson who’s often overlooked but having a fantastic season. While the Chiefs offense is still very potent, the loss of RB Kareem Hunt is a big blow. The last 2 games they’ve rushed for just 68 & 90 yards and their YPP production dropped off dramatically (5.5 & 5.3). KC is trending down yet still favored on the road in a very tough venue vs a very good team. We like Seattle to win this game at home so we’ll take the points. |
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12-22-18 | Buffalo v. Troy +1 | Top | 32-42 | Win | 100 | 27 h 51 m | Show |
#226 ASA CFB 10* TOP PLAY ON Troy (+) over Buffalo, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET – DOLLAR GENERAL BOWL The wrong team is favored here in our opinion. We have these teams rated dead even and this is basically a home game for Troy. This game is being played in Mobile, AL which is 165 miiles from the Troy campus. When the Trojans played here two years ago they beat Ohio (from the MAC) 28-23. They brought 30,000+ fans to the game and a large contingent is expected again on Saturday. The Trojans were 2nd best team in the Sun Belt all season long right behind Appalachian State who already won their bowl game 45-13 despite losing their head coach and much of their coaching staff at the end of the regular season. Our 3rd rated team in the Sun Belt was Georgia Southern who already beat Eastern Michigan from the MAC (same as Buffalo) in their bowl game. Troy beat all of the bowl teams in the Sun Belt with the exception of App State who played host to the Trojans in the final game of the regular season and won 21-10. This team also beat Nebraska on the road earlier in the season. The MAC is again struggling in the bowl season (EMU lost, NIU lost, Toledo lost, Ohio won as of this writing) and the league is just 1-11 SU their last 12 bowl games. Buffalo lost to Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship game blowing a 29-10 lead losing 30-29. We think they’ll have a tough time bouncing back from that disappointment. On top of that, the team that beat them, Northern Illinois, was already crushed in their bowl game by UAB. Troy has a decent sized defensive edge here. They have been very good at stopping the run allowing just 3.3 YPC this season. It’s not as if the Sun Belt is a bad rushing conference either as this Troy defense faced 5 of the top 31 rush offenses this season. The Bulls rely heavily on their running game (42 carries per game) and Troy has the ability to shut that down. On the other side of the ball Buffalo allows nearly a full YPC more than Troy. The Trojans should control the trenches here. This is Buffalo’s first bowl game since 2013 while Troy is playing their third straight bowl game (won their bowl game each of the last 2 seasons). Troy has a veteran coach in Neal Brown that has led his team to a 30-19 ATS record over his tenure at the school. This Troy team has won 30 of their last 38 games going back to the start of the 2015 season. This program has a winning tradition while Buffalo is just starting to build theirs with their first winning season since 2013. Troy wins this one. |
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12-17-18 | Saints v. Panthers +7 | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 23 h 49 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Carolina +7 over New Orleans, Monday at 8:15 PM ET The Panthers home vs road dichotomy is quite drastic. They are just 1-6 on the road losing by an average score of 27-20. At home, however, Carolina is 5-1 winning by an average score of 31-23. Their lone loss here at home was a 30-27 OT setback at the hands of the Seahawks. Much has been made of Carolina’s free fall as they have lost 5 straight games but keep in mind it has been a brutal stretch with 4 of those 5 games on the road. Now they are backed into a corner and in a must win spot. Because Minnesota won on Sunday, the Vikings are currently sitting in the final wildcard spot and the Panthers must win here to remain a half game out if the wildcard. A loss here pretty much ends their playoff hopes. Despite their 5 game losing streak, the Cats have actually outgained 4 of those 5 opponents and going back further they’ve outgained 8 of their last 9 opponents. This is the first time Carolina has been an underdog since early November. In that game they were +3.5 @ Pittsburgh and now they’re getting nearly a full TD at home vs the Saints who come in overvalued in our opinion. New Orleans is 11-2 and they’ve already clinched the division. However, their offense has taken a noticeable step back over the last 3 weeks. Last week they beat Tampa 28-14, however their offense only averaged 4.8 YPP vs a defense that ranks 31st in that category allowing 6.7 YPP. Over the last 3 games the Saints have averaged 4.8, 3.6, and 5.7 YPP which is way down from their season average of 6.1 YPP. Two of those games were against Tampa & Atlanta, two of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Saints have been outgained in 3 of their last 5 road games topping only Tampa & Cincy in total yardage. Drew Brees has started to slow down as well after a sizzling start to the season. After recording a QB Rating of 110 or higher in 9 of his first 11 games, Brees has put up a QB Rating of just 71 & 90 his last two games. Despite the difference in their records, these two have very similar overall YPG differential stats on the season with the Saints at +40 YPG (+0.1 YPP) and Carolina is +26 YPG (+0.2 YPP). The dog has covered 7 of the last 8 in this NFC South rivalry and we call for another here. We give Carolina a great shot and winning this one so we’ll take the points. |
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12-16-18 | Seahawks v. 49ers +4 | Top | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON San Francisco +4 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET We’ll back the ugly home dog here playing with short revenge against a team that has essentially locked up their spot in the playoffs. These two teams just met 2 weeks ago in Seattle and the Hawks won handily 43-16 as a 10-point chalk. But the final score doesn’t tell it all as the Niners racked up 452 total yards of offense and outgained the Seahawks by 121 total yards. The 49ers had some costly turnovers at key times including a 98-yard INT TD late in the game along with a 90+ yard kickoff return to set up an easy score for Seattle. The 49ers bounced back off that loss with a solid win over Denver who was in a must win situation last week. San Fran outgained the Broncos by 115 yards and have now outgained 4 of their last five opponents. Seattle is coming off a huge home win over Minnesota but did it with just 274 total yards and 60 yards passing. That game was just 6-0 late in the game too. Seattle has been outgained by 4 of their last six opponents and it catches up to them today. The Seahawks defense hasn’t been the “Legion of Boom” this season as they allow 6.3 yards per play which is 26th in the league. San Francisco’s defense allows just 5.4YPPL which ranks 11th best in the NFL. You’ll be surprised to know that the 49ers even have the better offense in this matchup with a unit that averages 5.7YPPL compared to Seattle’s which averages 5.6YPPL. Seattle takes this week off in preparation for their game next week against the high-profile Chiefs. San Fran will be highly motivated here, playing with revenge and will treat this like a playoff game. Underdog wins outright! |
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12-16-18 | Cowboys v. Colts -3 | Top | 0-23 | Win | 100 | 2 h 3 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Indianapolis -3 over Dallas, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We love this spot for the Colts. Indy is coming off a very solid performance beating Houston on the road last week. That was a Texans team that had won 9 straight games coming into last week. Andrew Luck was fantastic with 399 yards passing against a very good Houston defense. The Colts are in a must win spot at home here as they currently sit behind Baltimore for the final wildcard spot. They have the same record as the Ravens at 7-6 but Indy is out right now because they lose the tie breaker. Dallas is coming off 3 straight huge home games beating Washington, New Orleans, and then Philly in OT last week. Their big division win over the Eagles pretty much locked up the division for Dallas (99% chance to win division) so they may have a bit of a letdown here. In fact, NFL teams coming off an SU & ATS overtime win have been terrible investments with a 13-30 ATS record the last 4 seasons. The Cowboys are also just 2-4 on the road this year and they were actually outgained in their 2 road wins. Dallas relies heavily on their running game to set up their passing game as Dak Prescott is not a QB that can carry the load by himself in our opinion. Not much is said about the Colts defense, but they are very solid, especially against the run. They rank 8th in the NFL in YPG allowed on the ground and 6th in YPC allowed. If they can slow the Dallas running game, the Cowboy offense is in trouble. If Prescott is asked to win this game, we don’t see it happening. We’ll take Andrew Luck in that spot every day of the week. Indy’s head coach Frank Reich was with the Eagles last year so he knows Dallas very well. So does the Colt’s defensive coordinator who was the Dallas LB coach last season. The Colts are an undervalued team in our opinion and they catch Dallas in a great spot for a letdown. We’ll lay the field goal |
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12-16-18 | Lions v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 13-14 | Loss | -119 | 2 h 2 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Buffalo -2.5 over Detroit, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Which team allows the fewest YPG in the NFL? Baltimore? Maybe Chicago? Nope. The Bills are now the #1 defense in the NFL allowing just 290 YPG on 4.8 YPP. That will be a huge problem for the Detroit offense today which has been terrible to say the least. The Lions offense is averaging only 16 PPG over their last 7. They were on the road last week at beat Arizona 17-3 with Detroit putting up only 218 total yards and actually getting outgained by the Cards who have the worst offense in the NFL averaging only 242 YPG. Over the last 6 games this Detroit offense has averaged 4, 4.8, 5.2, 4.8 4.2, and 3 yards per play. That’s simply terrible and they will have big problems again today against this staunch Buffalo defense. The Bills are off a home loss to the Jets, however they ran 18 more plays and outgained NY by 120 yards. Three turnovers were the key in that game. The Bills are 0-2 the last 2 weeks and but have outgained those 2 opponents by a combined 360 yards! They have outgained 4 of their last 5 opponents overall with 3 of those coming by at least 120 yards. This team is undervalued right now because of that. QB Josh Allen has put up 407 yards passing and 236 yards rushing the last 2 games! The overall offensive numbers for Buffalo this year are not great but they are absolutely trending up on that side of the ball. While they average just 292 YPG, they are outperforming that by a long shot as of late averaging almost 400 YPG over their last 4 games. The last time they were held under 300 was against Chicago over a month ago and the Bills actually outgained the Bears in that game. Buffalo is still playing hard and this is a big home game for them. Detroit is on the road for the 2nd straight week, off a deceiving win last week, nothing to play for, and they have division rivals on deck (Vikings &Packers to close out the season). It’s supposed to be cold in Buffalo today (35 degrees) with snow a possibility. The road dome team will want nothing to do with this game today. Lay the small number as Buffalo wins this one going away. |
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12-15-18 | Middle Tennessee State +7 v. Appalachian State | Top | 13-45 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
ASA 10* Top Play ON Middle Tennessee State (+) over Appalachian State, Saturday at 9:00 PM ET - We don’t expect App State to be completely focused or prepared for this one. Their head coach, Scott Satterfield, took the head coaching job @ Louisville and took both coordinators with him. On top of that, their interim coach, Mark Ivey, who many of the players hoped would get the job was just eliminated from consideration. The new head coach, just named on Thursday, is an outsider from NC State so the emotional make up of the Mountaineers may not be at its best for this one. That won’t be a problem for MTSU. They are a senior laden team that really want this win. Starting QB Brent Stockstill is a 4-year starter that has over 12,000 passing yards and 105 TD passes! His dad, Rick, is the head coach at MTSU and you can guarantee this team is 100% focused on getting a win to close out this season. The Blue Raiders are coming off a disappointing loss in the Conference USA Championship game losing 27-25 vs UAB. We expect them to bounce back with a big performance here. MTSU has played the tougher schedule (79th nationally) facing 3 SEC teams and vs the 7 bowl teams they played, the Raiders were +39 YPG. App State has one of the easiest strength of schedule (112th nationally) and they were just +26 YPG in the 5 bowl teams they faced this season. MTSU will want to throw the ball here with their talented & experienced QB, it may look like they will have problems against an App State defense that has impressive numbers vs the pass. However, those numbers are as deceiving as they come. That’s because Mountaineers have played one of the easiest passing schedules in the country. The Sun Belt has a number of run heavy teams and that shows up in the defensive stats of Appalachian State. They have faced a grand total of ONE team ranked in the top 75 in passing this year and four of their opponents ranked lower than 100. We expect Stockstill to be able to move the ball through the air in this one. App State relies very heavily on the run (42 carries per game) and the MTSU defense has been solid stopping the run this year allowing 4.1 YPC. If you take out their 3 games vs SEC opponents the Raider defense has very solid numbers allowing just 3.69 YPC. Middle Tennessee comes into this game with an 8-5 record with 3 of those setbacks vs SEC teams (all bowl teams). Their other two losses came by 2 points in the Conference USA Championship game and 3 points. We expect a close game here and with MTSU having the motivational edge, we give them a solid shot at the outright upset. Take the points. |
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12-06-18 | Jaguars +6 v. Titans | Top | 9-30 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
ASA 10* NFL PLAY ON Jacksonville +6 over Tennessee, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET These two met earlier this year and the Jags were favored by 10 at home. Now they are a 5.5 or 6 point underdog which means this game has swung more than 2 TD’s from the first meeting which is too much. The Titans did win that first match up by a final score of 9-6. The Jaguars seem to get an emotional boost last week when they replaced Bortles with Kessler at QB. They beat a red hot Indy team that had won 5 straight games averaging 35 PPG over that span. The Jax defense held the Colts scoreless on just 3.9 YPP. Now they face a Tennessee offense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in YPG, YPP, and scoring (18 PPG). Now the Titans are being asked to win by nearly a TD against a defense that shut them down to 233 yards on 4.1 YPP in the first meeting. That’s going to be very tough in our opinion. The Jags offense isn’t great obviously but we think the insertion of Kessler at QB can’t be any worse than Bortles. He threw for 150 yards last week but more importantly didn’t turn the ball over and let his defense win the game for him. That’s the recipe for success again tonight. Jacksonville will get a boost with their top RB Fournette back this week after serving his one game suspension in last week’s win. Despite their records, Jacksonville is +20 YPG with their 4-8 record while Tennessee is -30 YPG and sit at .500 (6-6). Four of Tennessee’s six wins have come by 4 points or less and tonight will be no different. If the Titans win, we expect a close game and we’ll give the Jaguars a decent shot to win the game outright. |
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12-02-18 | Chargers v. Steelers -3 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -120 | 30 h 21 m | Show |
ASA NFL 10* PLAY ON Pittsburgh-3 over LA Chargers, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET - NFL SUNDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE YEAR We faded Pittsburgh last week @ Denver and picked up a win with the Broncos. The Steelers were in a terrible spot playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks and their second of back to back on the road. On top of that they had to come from 16 points down late in their previous game @ Jacksonville to pick up a late win. With all that, the Steelers actually played much better than we thought they would under those circumstances. They outgained a solid Denver team by over 200 yards but turnovers were the key in that one. Pitt fumbled at the Denver 1-yard line, fumbled at the Denver 20-yard line, threw an interception at midfield, AND threw a pick in the endzone in the final seconds as they were going in for the tying score. Those mistakes prevented them from winning their 7th straight game. We expect Pittsburgh to play very well at home off that loss. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS their last 6 games following an outright loss and 30-15 ATS long term in that situation. Despite that loss the Steelers are at the top of their game right now. They have outgained 7 straight opponents by a combined 1,100 yards or by an average of 157 YPG. Since losing at home to Baltimore in late September the Steelers have won 3 straight home games by margins of 24, 15, and 31 points. The Chargers are 4-1 on the road, however 3 of those 4 wins have come against the Bills, Browns, and Raiders. Their lone solid road win was @ Seattle and in fact the Seahawks, who are 6-5, are the only team currently above .500 that the Chargers have beaten this year. In fact, the only other two teams the Chargers have played this year that are currently above .500 are the Rams & Chiefs and they lost both of those games by double digits. LA will also most likely be without one of the key offensive weapons as RB Melvin Gordon injured his knee last week and is doubtful here. Chargers not 100% and traveling east will be a tough spot. The Steelers have played really well at home late in the season with a 43-14 SU record with Roethlisberger under center. We expect Pitt take out their frustrations from last week here and roll over the Chargers. |
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12-01-18 | Stanford v. California +3.5 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
#334 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON California (+) over Stanford, Saturday at 3 PM ET - Stanford has dominated this series in recent years and that has resulted in some extra attention from the betting markets this week. The Cardinal have risen to as high as a 3 1/2 point favorite as of mid-day Friday and we feel we're getting excellent home dog value here. California has been the much better defense this season in comparison with Stanford. Although the Cardinal passing attack ranks the edge over the Golden Bears, the Cal pass defense is allowing nearly 100 passing yards less per game in comparison with the Stanford pass D. Though the Cardinal are off back to back wins, those victories came against UCLA and Oregon State! Prior to these B2B wins, Stanford had lost 4 of its 5 prior games and now the Cardinal take on a Cal team that has won 4 of its last 5 SU and gone 4-0-1 ATS in the process! The Bears opportunistic ways have been a recurring theme as Cal has forced a total of 13 turnovers the past 5 weeks. By comparison, Stanford has forced a total of only 3 turnovers in their last 4 games. As an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, California is 38-22 ATS (including 7-3 ATS in recent seasons). Stanford, when off a win over Pac-12 foe, has gone 5-10-2 ATS including 0-3-1 ATS this season. Grab the points with the undervalued home dog in the annual "Big Game" between these Pac-12 rivals Saturday. |
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11-25-18 | Steelers v. Broncos +3 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver +3 over Pittsburgh, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - AFC GAME OF THE MONTH Bad spot for the Steelers playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks and coming off a come from behind win last week. They trailed 16-0 @ Jacksonville late in the 3rd quarter and pulled a dramatic comeback scoring in the final seconds to win 20-16. That was a huge double revenge game for them after losing @ Jacksonville in the regular season last year and then losing at home to the Jags in the playoffs. Now they have to take another long trip west which will be tough off a win they really wanted. Denver has some momentum coming off an upset win @ LA Chargers last week. Despite their overall record of 4-6, the Broncos have outgained their opponents on a YPP basis and have played one of the toughest schedules in the NFL already having faced KC (twice), LA Chargers, LA Rams, Houston, Baltimore, and Seattle. They don’t have a great home record (2-3 in Denver) but their losses have come by 4 points to KC, 3 points to Rams, and 2 points to Houston. The Broncos have been a fantastic home underdog over the long haul with a 30-16 ATS record since 1980. On top of that, Pitt has had very little success as a road favorite on the west coast going just 2-12 ATS when favored on the road vs AFC West opponents. These two teams have met 6 times since 2007 with the home team winning 5 of those games. We see that happening again with Denver pulling the upset. |
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11-25-18 | Seahawks v. Panthers -3 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -101 | 3 h 45 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Carolina -3 over Seattle, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFC GAME OF THE WEEK We like the value here with Carolina at home coming off 2 road losses. The Panthers need this win as they’ve dropped to 6-4 after losing @ Pittsburgh & @ Detroit. Laying only a FG is definite value in our opinion. These two both just played @ Detroit with in the last few weeks and while Seattle was +3 in Detroit, the Panthers were -4. Seattle’s most recent two road games they were +10 @ Rams and +3 @ Detroit as mentioned above. That tells us Carolina should definitely be laying a bigger number here but off 2 losses it’s lower than it should be. The Panthers have outgained 5 of their last 6 opponents and they are much better at home than they have been on the road this year. They are 5-0 at home this year averaging 32 PPG while averaging only 20 PPG on the road. Four of their five home wins have come by at least 8 points. Cam Newton has been much better at home as well completing 67% of his passes with 8 TD’s and just 2 interceptions. Seattle will be on the road for the 4th time in 6 games and their road wins have come against lower tier NFL teams (Arizona, Oakland, and Detroit). When they’ve had to play better teams away from home, they’ve lost. These two have met 5 times since the start of the 2014 season with the home team covering 4 of those. We expect another home team win and cover on Sunday. |
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11-24-18 | Minnesota v. Wisconsin -11.5 | Top | 37-15 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
#170 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Wisconsin (-) over Minnesota, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We really like this spot for Wisconsin. They are coming off a rejuvenating, come from behind win @ Purdue last week and it looks like QB Jack Coan finally found his stride. It was his 3rd start and in his first 2 the play calling was very conservative. We liked the way the game was called offensively much better last week as the passing game became a threat. That passing game should be wide open this week vs the Gophers as Wisconsin’s running game should be very effective. The Badgers lead the Big Ten in rushing and 4th nationally at 277 YPG. UW gashed Purdue for well over 300 yards rushing last week which opened up the passing game. Same scenario this week. They are facing a Minnesota defense that has allowed over 300 YPG rushing on the road this year including 430 yards by Illinois in their most recent road tilt. The Gophs are the youngest team in the nation (53% of their roster are freshmen) and because of that they’ve been solid at home but terrible on the road. They are 0-4 in road games allowing 45 PPG. Minnesota had a great shot at their 6th win last week at home vs a Northwestern team that had already clinched the Big Ten West and had nothing to play for. Even with that, the Cats won by 10. We have a strong feeling that Minnesota knows that was their chance to get to bowl eligible and will have a tough time in this game. Wisconsin has won this meeting 14 straight seasons and the coaches and players are stressing this week they do not want to be the team to blow that streak. The last 8 Badger wins in this series have come by double digits and in their home finale they will be sky high. Another double digit win for Wisconsin and this one could get ugly if they get up early which we think they will. |
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11-22-18 | Bears v. Lions +3.5 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 57 m | Show |
ASA NFL 10* PLAY ON Detroit +3..5 over Chicago, Thursday at 12:30 PM ET Brutal spot here for Chicago. They were flexed into the Sunday night game against division rival Minnesota and now must play a Thursday morning game on the road. Thursday road teams are 2-9 SU this year because of the tough travel and short week and this game is even magnified more for Chicago based the late Sunday start and the A.M. Thursday start. The Bears might be without QB Trubisky in this game as he injured his throwing shoulder vs Minnesota. If he doesn’t play it will be Chase Daniel at QB. We would probably rather have Trubisky play with a bum shoulder as he’s struggled this year on the road anyway. His home numbers are far superior to his road numbers (16 TD’s at home and just 4 on the road. Chicago has had an easy road slate facing Buffalo, Arizona, Miami, and Green Bay and they are just 2-2. They barely beat Arizona on the road and their big win @ Buffalo was very deceiving as they only had 190 total yards but the Bills were a turnover machine in that game. Detroit has been solid at home beating the Patriots, Packers, and Panthers here. All 3 of those teams have beaten Chicago this year for what it’s worth. After struggling on the road earlier this month Detroit has some momentum coming off their Sunday win here vs Carolina. They also should be extra motivated after losing @ Chicago just 2 weeks ago. That was just the 2nd time in the last 11 meetings that the Bears were able to beat Detroit. So terrible spot for Chicago, coming off huge home win over Minnesota, now with a 1.5 game lead in division, we think they struggle here and Detroit gets the win. |
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11-18-18 | Vikings +2.5 v. Bears | Top | 20-25 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Minnesota +2.5 over Chicago, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET The Bears have turned things around in Chicago and have the local fan base excited for the first time in years. The Vikings were the team to beat in the NFC North this year but got off to a rocky 1-2-1 start to the season so everyone wrote them off. But now the Vikings have righted the Ship so to speak with a 4-1 SU run their last five games. The only loss in that stretch was to the Saints who are the best team in football right now. In the loss to the Saints though the Vikings out-played, out-gained the Saints by over 150 total yards but two huge turnovers turned the tide in that game. On the road this season the Vikings have just one loss at the LA Rams and a tie in Green Bay. Chicago is a public team right now and the line reflects it. They have won three straight games but look who they’ve beaten. Detroit, Buffalo and the Jets who have a combined 9-20 SU record on the season and might be the three worst teams in the NFL. These teams have nearly identical offensive yards per play numbers and overall statistics but the Vikings have played a tougher schedule to this point. Consider this, the Bears were favored by 3-points at home in late September against Tampa Bay and now are laying the same in a huge NFC North showdown against a much better Minnesota team. Last year here the Vikings were favored by -3.5 points. Easy call with the Dog! |
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11-17-18 | Wisconsin v. Purdue -4 | Top | 47-44 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
#326 ASA 10* TOP PLAY ON Purdue (-) over Wisconsin, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This one sets up very nicely for the Boilers. They are playing their final home game and need this win to become bowl eligible (currently a 5-5 record). If they don’t get this game they have to go on the road next week to arch rival Indiana and try to get a win in order to qualify for the post-season. Purdue has been up one week, down the next for a full month now. They throttled Ohio State 49-20 here then followed that up with a stinker @ Michigan State the next week. They came back home after that loss and beat a very good Iowa team and then got creamed @ Minnesota. Now back at home after that embarrassing performance (their worst of the season) we would look for a very good game out of the Boilers. This team has beaten 3 straight ranked teams at home (BC, Ohio State, and Iowa) and now they face a Wisconsin team that is absolutely trending downward. The Badgers are already bowl eligible, they are coming off a huge game @ Penn State (a 22-10 loss), and they have their biggest rivalry game vs Minnesota next Saturday. We expect back up QB Jack Coan to be under center again this week although that has not been finalized and probably won’t be until gametime. Starter Alex Hornibrook is in concussion protocol and didn’t play last Saturday after suffering his 2nd concussion in 3 weeks vs Rutgers. We anticipate the UW coaching staff to be ultra conservative with Hornibrook moving forward due to his 2 concussions and the fact they are bowl eligible but out of the Big Ten West race. If either play, we still like Purdue. Coan simply doesn’t have enough experience and they have been very conservative offensively because of that. Even down 12 in the fourth quarter last week the play calling was not wide open to say the least. In the two games that Coan has started the Badgers have scored 17 & 10 points. He has thrown for 158 yards and 60 yards in those two games. That makes the offense one-dimensional and the Purdue defense will load the box to stop the run. It’s a Purdue defense that was gashed on the ground by Minnesota last week in their letdown spot but had been playing quite well vs the run leading into that game. If you take out last week’s debacle @ Minnesota, the Boilermaker rush defense is allowing 132 YPG in league play which would be good for 4th best. The weak spot of Purdue’s defense is their pass defense allowing 278 YPG however Wisconsin is not a team that will be able to take advantage of that. The Badger defense is WAY down compared to previous years. They are very young on the back end and their top run stuffer, Olive Sagapolo, is out. After allowing less than 100 YPG rushing in each of the last 3 season, the Badger stop unit is giving up 175 YPG on the ground this season. Purdue’s offense is balanced and potent and they put points on the board (4th in the Big Ten averaging 32 PPG – conference games). They look even more impressive when playing at home as they’ve scored 37, 30, 49, and 38 points their last 4 at Ross Ade Stadium. The Wisconsin defense isn’t playing well enough to stop Purdue and their offense isn’t playing well enough to keep up. Add in the motivation factors discussed above and Purdue rolls in this one. |
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11-15-18 | Packers v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Seattle -3 over Green Bay, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET This is a REALLY tough spot for the Packers. It’s their third road game in the last four week and long travel on a short week. Not only have they been on the road a lot as of late, it’s been long travel. They went to the west coast vs Rams, then east coast vs Patriots the next week, then home vs Miami, how west coast against on a short week. That is as tough a schedule as you could map out. Seattle is at home where they are playing just their 4th game this season. They are 1-2 here at home but their losses were both close vs Rams and Chargers, two of the best teams in the NFL. Seattle played toe to toe with the Rams on the road last week losing 36-31. Seattle ran for 273 yards vs the Rams and LOST! Speaking of that we expect Seattle to dominate the rushing game tonight as they lead the league in rushing at 152 YPG while GB allows 121 YPG (22nd in NFL). That should open things up for Russell Wilson and the passing game. Wilson has had a fantastic year completing 66% of his passes for an average of 7.96 yards per pass and 21 TD’s. It could be argued Wilson is having a better year than Aaron Rodgers who’s completing just 60% of his passes for 7.32 yards per pass and 17 TD’s. On the road, where GB is 0-4, Rodgers has completed under 60% of his passes with a QB rating of 98 (Wilson has rating of 110 this season). Because of the short week travel situation, road teams can struggle on Thursday nights. They are just 2-8 SU this year. GB is in an even more drastic travel spot because of previous weeks. Seattle has a solid defense and should be able to move the ball very well as discussed above. The Pack will hang around for awhile but we like Seattle to wear them down and win this one by a TD or more. |
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11-11-18 | Dolphins v. Packers -10 | Top | 12-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 24 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Green Bay -10 over Miami, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET This is an absolute must win for the Packers. They now sit with a 3-4-1 record after losses @ Rams and @ Patriots. They take the road again the next two weeks going to Seattle and Minnesota so a loss here might just end their playoff hopes. The last two weeks Green Bay played quite well on the road vs two of the best teams & best offenses in the NFL. They lost @ Rams 29-27 and @ Pats 31-17. The New England game was closer than the final as GB actually had the ball deep in Patriot territory with the game tied at 17-17 when an Aaron Jones fumble changed the entire game. Now after facing two of the most prolific offenses in the NFL, we look for the Packer defense to play much better against an anemic Miami offense. The Fins rank 28th in the NFL in total offense averaging only 315 YPG. Last week in their 13-6 win at home vs the Jets, the Dolphins tallied only 168 TOTAL yards and just 7 first downs. They did not score an offensive TD. With journeyman back up Brock Osweiler still under center we think they’ll struggle again this week vs a Packer defense that is under rated in our opinion. The rank middle of the pack in most key categories which is better than most would think. Aaron Rodgers should have a field day against a Miami defense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in pass defense, sack percentage, and sacks per game. Prior to last week’s game vs the hapless Jets offense, this Dolphin defense had allowed 38, 27, 28, 32, and 42 points their previous 5 games. The Fins are 5-4 but have a negative point differential and have been outgained 7 of their last 8 games. All of Miami’s wins have come by a single score while their losses have come by 10, 11, 19, and 31 points. Miami has been a terrible road team winning just 1 of their last 9 road games with losses coming by 40, 31, 24, 19, 18, 16, 10, and 8 points. The high temp in Green Bay Sunday will be in the low 30’s which is not ideal for a warm weather team. We think the Packers roll over Miami on Sunday winning by 2+ TD’s. |
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11-11-18 | Lions +7.5 v. Bears | Top | 22-34 | Loss | -135 | 24 h 58 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Detroit +7.5 over Chicago, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH Bears won @ hapless Buffalo last week 41-9 and a simple glance at the score did not tell the whole story. Chicago had 190 TOTAL yards! That’s it. They scored 41 points with less than 200 yards of total offense. Two defensive TD’s by Chicago in that game and 4 Buffalo turnovers made the difference. The Bills actually outgained Chicago by 75 yards. Detroit comes in a bit desperate after losing 24-9 @ Minnesota last week. The Vikings were extra motivated in that one after outplaying the Saints on the stat sheet a week earlier but still losing at home. The Detroit defense played well holding Minnesota to just 285 total yards and a defensive TD by the Vikes made this one look worse than it was. This has been a tight series with 10 of the last 12 meetings decided by single digits. The Lions have actually won 9 of the last 10 meetings and this is the first time Chicago has been favored in this series since 2012. Detroit is 3-5 on the season however their 3 wins (Packers, Patriots, Dolphins) have all come against teams that beat Chicago this year. On the flip side the Bears are 5-3 but 4 of their wins have come against the lower end of the NFL (Arizona, Buffalo, NY Jets, Tampa). Their lone solid win was @ home vs Seattle but that was way back in mid September. Detroit was +4.5 @ Minnesota last week and now they’re getting a full TD @ Chicago? Matt Stafford is getting a full TD from Mitch Trubisky? We’ll take it. |
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11-10-18 | Florida State +17 v. Notre Dame | Top | 13-42 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 45 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Florida State (+) over Notre Dame, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #215 |
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11-04-18 | Texans v. Broncos | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 50 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver (pick-em) over Houston, Sunday at 4:00 PMET - AFC GAME OF THE MONTH Hmmm? We have a Houston team that has won 5 straight games vs a Denver team that has lost 4 of their last 5 yet the Broncos are favored. Denver is coming off a 30-23 loss last week @ KC but they outplayed the red hot Chiefs in that game. The Broncos outgained the Chiefs by 70+ yards in the game and outrushed them 189 to 49. They’ve played KC to the wire twice this year losing by 4 and 7 points. Denver is 3-5 on the year but 4 of those losses came to KC (twice), LA Rams, and @ Baltimore. The Broncos are much better than their record and are now backed into a corner in a must win spot at home. Houston is on a nice run but their wins have come against Miami, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Dallas and Indy with two of those games going to OT. The home team should have a big edge in the trenches here as Houston’s offensive line rates as one of the worst in the NFL (23rd in efficiency by Football Outsiders). They will be facing a Denver defensive front that averages 3 sacks per game (5th in the NFL) with a sack percentage of 8% (also 5th in the NFL). That will be a problem for a banged up Deshaun Watson who’s already been hit more than any other QB in the league. By contrast, Denver’s offensive line ranks 4th in the NFL in efficiency and #1 in the league in run blocking. That’s a good reason why the Broncos average 134 YPG on the ground. The Broncos have played the MUCH tougher schedule to date (6th most difficult compared to Houston’s 32nd ranked strength of schedule) and despite their records (Denver is 3-5 & Houston is 5-3) we feel the Broncos are the better team, in a must win spot, and at home. Football Outsiders efficiency ratings agree with us as they have Denver ranked as the 7th best team in the NFL and Houston ranked 12th. Lay the small number with Denver. |
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11-04-18 | Bucs +7 v. Panthers | Top | 28-42 | Loss | -130 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Tampa Bay +7 over Carolina, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - NFC SOUTH GAME OF THE MONTH We expect Tampa to play much better now that they’ve decided on Ryan Fitzpatrick as their starting QB. Why they went away from him when Jameis Winston came back in a mystery to us. Fitzpatrick has his teammates trust and confidence and he just happens to be the highest rated QB in the league at 119.3. Yes higher than Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Mahomes, and Goff. Now we’re not saying Fitzpatrick is better than those signal callers but he is having a very good season. Last week he entered the game late @ Cincinnati late in the 3rd quarter with his team down 34-16. He rallied the Bucs to a 34-34 tie but lost on a last second FG. The team looked rejuvenated with him under center and we expect them to play very well this weekend. Carolina is off a 36-21 home win over Baltimore. They played very well but were an underdog in that game. Now they are laying nearly a full TD and we simply don’t trust Cam Newton in this role. This has been a tightly contested series with 3 of the last 4 meetings decided by a FG or less. The dog has covered 4 straight in this NFC South battle and 3 of Tampa’s 4 losses have come by 5 points or fewer. The Bucs are better than their 3-4 record as they are actually outgaining their opponents by 52 YPG (Carolina is just +15 YPG on the season). With Fitzpatrick back at the helm, this team will score points. We don’t see the Panthers being able to pull away in this game and we give the Bucs a solid shot at the upset. Take the points. |
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11-03-18 | Penn State v. Michigan -12 | Top | 7-42 | Win | 100 | 27 h 60 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan Wolverines (-) over Penn State Nittany Lions, Saturday at 3:45 PM ET: Game #406 |
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10-28-18 | 49ers -1 v. Cardinals | Top | 15-18 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 5 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON San Francisco -1 over Arizona, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - NFC WEST GAME OF THE YEAR We thought the Niners might be in trouble when starting QB Garopollo went down. They’ve actually played pretty well with CJ Beathard at QB. He’s thrown for over 1,000 yards and 7 TD’s in his 4 starts. Three of those starts were against the Chargers, Packers, and Rams so a tough schedule to say the least. They held 4th quarter leads in their games @ Chargers and @ Packers but were unable to hold on vs those prolific offenses. Beathard’s only other other start was against this Cardinal team. Arizona upset San Fran 28-18 in that game a few weeks ago but the Niner absolutely dominated the stats. In that game the 49ers were +227 yards, +23 first downs, and had a 40:00 to 20:00 minute time of possession edge and lost by 10! That’s because they had 5 turnovers in the game while Arizona had zippo. San Fran has been waiting for this rematch and we don’t see any way the Cards can keep up offensively. We anticipate San Francisco putting up big numbers again (this time on the scoreboard as well) vs an Arizona defense that ranks dead last in the NFL vs the run and has allowed 72 points in their last 2 games. Meanwhile the Cardinal offense has been putrid. The rank last in the NFL in most key offensive categories and they have only topped 17 points once this entire year. They have also not gained more than 268 yards in any game this season. They are getting outgained by an average of 162 YPG on the season. That’s bad folks. While San Fran is playing hard and playing pretty well vs top notch competition as of late, the Cardinals seem to be in a bit of disarray. They fired their offensive coordinator this week and their top DB wants to be traded. We see things coming apart at the seams a bit for this team. The Niners are well coached under Kyle Shanahan and his players respect him. We think they roll into Arizona and pick up an easy in on Sunday. |
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10-28-18 | Browns v. Steelers -7.5 | Top | 18-33 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Pittsburgh -7.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - AFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH Situationally this game sets up really well for Pittsburgh. The Steelers look like they are hitting their stride after struggling early in the season. They scored 69 combined points their most recent 2 games beating Atlanta & Cincinnati. They also dominated those games on the stat sheet. They are coming off a bye and surely are ready to put a beat down on a Cleveland team they tied 21-21 to open the season. In that game the Steelers were the much better team outgaining the Browns 472 to 327 but SIX turnovers did them in. Even with a +5 turnover differential in the game, Cleveland wasn’t able to win. Unlike the Steelers who are off a bye, Cleveland is playing their 2nd of back to back road games. They are also playing for the 8th consecutive week and FOUR of their previous 7 have gone into overtime meaning they’ve logged the equivalent of almost a full extra game in those 8 weeks. They look like they are running out of gas to us. They played at Tampa Bay last week and while they lost in OT, the Bucs dominated the game outgaining Cleveland by 150 yards. Tampa turned the ball over 4 times to just 1 for Cleveland. Again, even with the big turnover advantage, the Browns were not able to win the game. The offense continues to struggle as they’ve topped 21 points only twice the entire season vs Tampa Bay (28th in total defense) and Oakland (26th in total defense). The Cleveland defense looked good early in the season but as we stated, they look like they are running out of gas allowing 45, 38, and 26 points in 3 of their last 4 games. Pitt coach Tomlin has been very good as a big favorite with a 21-12 ATS record when laying more than a TD. The Browns have now lost 24 straight road games and we think this one sets up as a potential Pittsburgh thumping. Lay it. |
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10-27-18 | Texas v. Oklahoma State +3.5 | Top | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 29 h 58 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State Cowboys (+) over Texas Longhorns, Saturday at 8 PM ET: Game #180 |
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10-27-18 | Washington State v. Stanford -2.5 | Top | 41-38 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 53 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Stanford Cardinal (-) over Washington State Cougars, Saturday at 7 PM ET: Game #162 |
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10-21-18 | Saints v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 24-23 | Loss | -116 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Baltimore -2.5 over New Orleans, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET This line is fluctuating between -2.5 points and -3 points but the majority are still at 2.5 Either way we like the Ravens to get it done at home over the Saints. If you haven’t seen them play yet, it’s worth the time to watch this Ravens defense as it’s dominating. Baltimore beat Tennessee last week 21-0 allowing just 7 first downs and 106 total yards in the game. The Ravens defense has been lights out allowing 14, 14, 9, and 0 points the last 4 gms in regulation. The Saints defense gave up 48 points in opener (to TB) but seem to have righted the ship allowing 19 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games but they’ve played the Browns (24th in scoring), Giants (27th) and Washington (25th). Baltimore is off 3 straight road games and should be happy to be home where they’ve won by 44 and 13 points already this season. Ravens outscoring opponents 62-12 in second half (regulation) of their 6 games this year, thus they are allowing less than a FG average in 2nd half. Baltimore #1 defense allowing 270 YPG (306 is 2nd) also #1 allowing 4.4 yards per play (4.9 is 2nd). We like the Ravens pass defense which is 2nd in the NFL allowing just 188 passing yards per game on the season versus the Saint’s 3rd ranked passing O. Let’s not forget about a Ravens offense that is 9th in the league in yards per game overall and 9th in passing. Baltimore 5-1 SU their last six at home, Saints just 2-4 SU their last six away. |
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10-21-18 | Panthers +5 v. Eagles | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 1 h 6 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Carolina +5 over Philadelphia, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We are not a fan of laying points with the Panthers but do like them getting points in this matchup with the Eagles. An interesting game within a game will be the rushing attack of the Panthers versus the Eagles rush defense. It’s literally Strength on strength with Carolina 4th in the NFL in rushing at 139 YPG and Philly #2 at stopping the run allowing 79 YPG. But hold that thought. Are the Eagles really that good at stopping the run? We don’t think so as the Eagles 79 YPG rush defense numbers are a bit skewed as they’ve played the following rush offenses (22nd, 27th, 28th, 29th, 30th, and 31st). The metrics tell us against an average team the Eagles will give up an average of 105RYPG so a good team like Carolina should do more damage on the ground than that. Overall the Eagles defense has given up over 375 yards in 4 of five games this year and over 397 three times. The Panthers have held 2 of the five teams they’ve faced to under 300 total yards of offense. Since their inception in 1995 Carolina is 59-42-1 ATS as a road dog of more than 3 pts and QB Cam Newton is 19-8 ATS as an underdog off a SU loss. Based on strength of schedule and the statistics that account for opponents played, we like Carolina here and the points. |
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10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots -3 | Top | 40-43 | Push | 0 | 32 h 27 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON New England -3 over Kansas City, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET We view this as a game the Pats will want to make a statement. Many have now said that KC is the team to beat in the AFC which is the title that has been held by the Pats for multiple years. Do you think Belichick & Brady will want to squash that sentiment in this game? Add to that this is a revenge game from the season opener last year and you can pretty much guarantee they want to make a statement here. New England has had extra time to get ready for this huge home match up after beating the Colts 38-24 on Thursday night. While we believe the Chiefs are a very solid team, we also feel they have been very fortunate to date. They’ve been outgained in 4 of their 5 games (-300 yards on the season) and they have the worst defense in the NFL allowing 462 YPG (ranking 31st in pass defense & 24th in rush defense). To be 5-0 in that situation means they’ve absolutely gotten some fortunate breaks. Last week they beat a very good Jacksonville team 30-14 but were handed the win by the Jags who turned the ball over 5 times including throwing 2 picks in the endzone, another at the 1-yard line, and also throwing a pick 6. The Jags made 5 official trips inside KC’s 20 yard line and came away with a grand total of 7 points on those possessions. QB Patrick Mahomes came back to earth throwing 2 picks and 0 TD’s. We’re positive Belichick will have a very solid defensive gameplan for Mahomes in this one. The Patriots offense is peaking right now scoring 38 points in each of their last 2 games, they have WR Julian Edelman back in the line up, and Tom Brady should have a field day vs the 31st rank pass defense. We simply don’t see the Patriots in this price range at home very often as they’ve been a favorite of less than 4 points only 4 times since 2010 (3-1 ATS). They are also a fantastic 18-3 ATS at home as a favorite of less than a TD since December of 2010. KC is playing their 4th road game already this season and this is a very dangerous spot for them. The Pats are 93-15 SU at home since December of 2006 and with this number sitting as low as it is, the value is definitely with the Patriots. Lay the small number with New England. |
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10-14-18 | Rams v. Broncos +7 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 28 h 11 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver +7 over LA Rams, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET The Rams finally had to leave the state of California last week and they almost got clipped for the first time this year. They came from behind in the 4th quarter to beat Seattle 33-31. IT was just their 2nd road game this season with their first being @ Oakland to open the season. Now LA is on the road for the 2nd straight week and in altitude. They should be catching the Broncos in an ornery mood after playing a terrible game on the road last week @ NY Jets. The Denver defense gave up an uncharacteristic 323 yards on the GROUND to the Jets, the most by a Bronco defense since 2010. They obviously were not physically or mentally ready for that game and we expect a huge bounce back on Sunday. While they have struggled on the road winning just 1 of their last 12 games, Denver is a different animal at home. They are 2-1 here this year with their only loss coming 27-23 to 5-0 Kansas City, a game that Denver led 23-13 midway through the 4th quarter. They were +3 to +3.5 in that game vs an undefeated KC team and now they are getting a full TD here vs a comparable team. You almost never see Denver as that type of dog at home as this is just the 4th time since 1980 they’ve been a home dog of +7 or more. The Rams looked unbeatable early in the season vs Oakland and Arizona but those wins now don’t look quite as impressive as those teams have a combined record of just 2-8. After their first two games vs weak competition, their defense has not looked very good giving up 23, 31, and 31 points their last 3. Their run defense has really struggled allowing 5 YPC which is 29th in the NFL. That’s a problem here vs a Denver rushing attack that ranks #1 in the NFL averaging 5.6 YPC. This sets up as a dangerous game for the Rams and we’ll grab the generous points with the home team here. |
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10-14-18 | Colts +2 v. Jets | Top | 34-42 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Indianapolis +2 over NY Jets, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Big mismatch at the QB position here with Luck vs Darnold. The much better and more experienced QB is getting points which is always worth a look. People are overreacting to the Jets crushing the Broncos last week. It wasn’t a huge surprise as Denver has been a terrible road team under head coach Vance Joseph now losing 11 of their last 12 games away from home. Darnold had to do very little in that game (completed just 10 passes) as the Jets ran for a ridiculous 323 yards. It’s not as if the Jets were some terrific running team as they were averaging just 88 YPG on the ground coming into last week’s game. Now they face an Indy defense that is allowing only 4 YPC which is 10th best in the NFL. NY won’t run wild this week and Darnold will have more pressure to make plays on Sunday. Let’s also not forget that the Jets had lost 3 straight games (scoring just 41 combined points in those 3 games) heading into their impressive win vs Denver. The Colts have had 10 days to rest up and prepare for this game after losing @ New England on Thursday night. Indy desperately needs a win here as they come in off three straight losses. Two were down to the wire, tight games @ Philadelphia (lost 20-16) and vs Houston (lost 37-34 in OT). The Colts have outgained 3 of their 5 opponents and their defense is actually quite solid. They are very good at getting to the QB (3rd in sacks per game and 6th in sack percentage) so we wouldn’t be at all surprised if Darnold is rushed in to a few mistakes in this game. Andrew Luck is a great 22-4 SU and 21-5 ATS the game following a SU & ATS loss. He is rolling right now as well throwing for over 800 yards and 7 TD’s his last 2 games. We like the Colts to win this game outright on Sunday. |
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10-13-18 | Colorado v. USC -6.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 33 h 20 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* USC Trojans (-) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #156 |
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10-07-18 | Jaguars +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 14-30 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 59 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Jacksonville +3 over Kansas City, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We’re getting points with the better team here. Much has been made of KC’s offense thus far but we expect defenses to catch up with their scheme. We could see it on Monday night when KC went into Denver and had only 13 points with under 7:00 minutes remaining in the game. They did score 2 TD’s late but for much of the game their offense was held in check by a pretty average Denver defense that ranks middle of the pack in most key categories. Now they face a Jacksonville defense that ranks #2 in the NFL in efficiency, #1 in PPG allowed, #1 in YPG allowed, and #2 in yards per play allowed. KC is on a short week after a come from behind division win on Monday night which is not a great spot for them. While the Jags might have the best defense in the NFL, the Chiefs might have the worst. They rank near the bottom of the NFL in many key categories including total defense, scoring defense, YPP defense, rush defense, yards per pass attempt allowed, and defensive efficiency. The Jaguar offense has been solid with the exception of one game this year vs the Titans. They’ve scored 31 points in 2 of their last 3 games and will put points up here vs a bad KC defense. We rate Jacksonville with a big edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball which normally doesn’t equate to an underdog which is what we have here. KC is overvalued right now because of their offense. They’ve put up big numbers however all 4 of their opponents rank 20th or lower in pass defense. They now run into a great defense in Jacksonville that ranks #1 in pass defense and a team who also has a pretty good offense. The yards per play differential with these two teams in tells us a lot with Jacksonville at +1.3 YPP (one of the best in the NFL) and KC at -0.1 YPP. This is one of those games a few months from now people may look back and wonder why they didn’t take advantage of Jacksonville as an underdog in this spot. We’ll make sure we do. Take the Jags here. |
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10-06-18 | Iowa -7 v. Minnesota | Top | 48-31 | Win | 100 | 39 h 27 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa Hawkeyes (-) over Minnesota Golden Gophers, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #387 |
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09-30-18 | Ravens +3 v. Steelers | Top | 26-14 | Win | 100 | 31 h 50 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Baltimore +3 over Pittsburgh, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET We love looking at teams with the MUCH better defense getting points. That’s absolutely what we have here as Baltimore has the 5th most efficient defense in the NFL right now (according to Football Outsiders) and Pittsburgh is 19th. The Ravens are allowing just 17 PPG while the Steelers have given up 30 PPG on the season. On top of that Baltimore is allowing 138 fewer yards per game so overall ranking 1st in the NFL on total defense so a big edge defensively for us in this one. The Pittsburgh offense looks as if they are rolling the last 2 weeks putting up big numbers vs KC & Tampa. However, let’s put that in perspective as those team defenses rank 31st and 32nd in total defense. The one decent defense the Steelers played this year was Cleveland and they scored just 21 in that game. Baltimore’s offense is looking much better than it did the last few seasons as they are already averaging 32 PPG this season. They will absolutely be able to move the ball vs this porous Pitt defense on Sunday. Pittsburgh is on a short week after winning Monday night at Tampa 30-27 – nearly blowing a 30-10 lead because of their poor defense. Steelers just 3-9 ATS their last 12 games off an outright win and 12 of last 20 in this series have been decided by 3 or less. The dog is 9-3-1 ATS last 12 meetings and we simply think Baltimore is the better team this year. Take the points. |
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09-30-18 | Browns v. Raiders -2.5 | Top | 42-45 | Win | 100 | 26 h 29 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Oakland -2.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET If Jon Gruden doesn't win this game he might just get run out of Oakland along with his 100 million dollar contract! The Raiders have played well this year but haven't cracked the win column yet, that changes today. Oakland has outgained the Rams and Dolphins and were barely outgained by 12 yards in Denver but are still 0-3. The Raiders have the 11th best offensive efficiency rating in the NFL this year and that's going against a solid group of defenses. Oakland's defensive efficiency is skewed as they've faced two top 8 offenses this year and Denver who is 15th. What we're saying is this, the Raiders are far better than their record indicates and are only laying a field goal or less in this contest. Cleveland comes into this game with their first win since 2016 as they beat the Jets. Really, a win over a bad Jets team with another rookie QB makes this team even on a neutral field against the Raiders? The Browns have lost 22 straight road losses and have their own rookie QB making his first start ever on the road. Cleveland's offense is one of the worst in the league at 30th in OEFF and 20 points (average) isn't going to be enough to keep pace with the Raiders who are 6th in the league in total yards per game (400ypg). The Browns last 16 road losses have come by an average of 11.5PPG! Need we say more. Play the Raiders. |
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09-29-18 | South Carolina +1 v. Kentucky | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 51 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Carolina Gamecocks (+) over Kentucky Wildcats, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #141 |
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09-27-18 | Vikings +7.5 v. Rams | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Minnesota +7.5 over LA Rams, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET The Vikings are now backed into a corner having lost last week to Buffalo and tied the week before vs Green Bay. This is a much bigger game for Minnesota coming in with a 1-1-1 record. The Vikes come into this one angry after a complete no-show last week at home vs Buffalo. They became the first team since 1995 to lose outright as a 16-point or higher favorite. A letdown was expected from Minnesota after an overtime tie with Green Bay a week earlier and this game with the Rams on deck. The yardage vs Buffalo was dead even but Minny had 3 turnovers while the Bills didn’t turn the ball over. Buffalo jumped out to a 24-0 lead early in the 2nd quarter which took Minnesota completely out of their offensive game plan. They only ran the ball 6 times while attempting 55 passes. The Rams are obviously very good but we feel they come in a bit overvalued after winning each of their first 3 games by double digits. Remember two of those wins were against Oakland and Arizona who have combined to go 0-6. The look ahead line on this game before the season began was the Rams -3. Now we’re getting a full TD with one of the top teams in the NFL coming off an embarrassing loss. They’re facing the Rams with both starting CB’s out and on top of that, Viking head coach Mike Zimmer is 11-2 ATS when off a loss and facing a non-NFC North foe. Take the points here. |
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09-23-18 | Broncos v. Ravens -5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Baltimore -10 over Denver, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's AFC GAME OF THE MONTH The Broncos are easily the weakest 2-0 team in the NFL. Their two wins have come against Seattle & Oakland by a combined 4 points. Those two teams have yet to win a game and BOTH led Denver in the 4th quarter before the Broncos rallied for a tight win. Now Denver has to travel to the east coast in their first road game of the year and they are a team that is 1-9 SU their last 10 road games. Denver’s once vaunted defense looks like they have lost their luster. Especially vs the pass where Oakland’s David Carr lit them up last week for 288 yards completing 29 of his 32 attempts. A week earlier Russell Wilson threw for 298 yards and 3 TD’s on this Denver defense. Now they face Joe Flacco who has thrown for 620 yards and 5 TD’s in his two games. Expect a big day from him. The Ravens are off a Thursday night loss @ Cincinnati so they have had extra time to get ready for this home game. They actually outgained the Bengals in that game and despite their 1-1 record Baltimore is +268 in total yardage on the year. Since 2003, undefeated teams that are underdogs of more than three points on the road are just 36-52-2 ATS (41%) against the spread. Baltimore by a TD or more in this one. |
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09-22-18 | Air Force v. Utah State -10.5 | Top | 32-42 | Loss | -108 | 36 h 59 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State Aggies (-) over Air Force Falcons, Saturday at 10:15 PM ET: Game #392 |
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09-15-18 | Washington -4.5 v. Utah | Top | 21-7 | Win | 100 | 35 h 44 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Huskies (-) over Utah Utes, Saturday at 10 PM ET: Game #205 |
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09-09-18 | Cowboys +3 v. Panthers | Top | 8-16 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Dallas +3 over Carolina, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET The Carolina Panthers made some changes in the offseason and we’re not sure they were good ones. After ranking 24th in offensive efficiency in 2016, then moving up to 9th, the Panthers decided to bring in a new offensive coordinator? Carolina recycled longtime NFL coach Norv Turner but has the game evolved into something he’s not? Looking back we see Norv Turner’s last two offensive units in Minnesota ranked 25th or worse in total yards per game and before that his Browns offense finished 18th. The last year he was with the Chargers they were 31st. Last year the Panthers were 16th in total yards per game (average) and 9th in OEFF. We really don’t think this will be a good fit for QB Cam Newton either. The Panthers had a positive point differential last year at +1.8PPG. The Panthers defense was very good again last year finishing with our 9th ranked defensive efficiency unit while allowing just 21PPG. In the late stages of last season though this defensive unit faltered a little allowing 25.4PPG in their last seven contests. Dallas had a down season a year ago and a lot of that had to do with injuries and suspensions. The Cowboys were slightly better than the Panthers in total yards per game and 10th in OEFF. That was without RB Elliott for the first four games of the season. The Boys finished last season strong with wins in 3 of four games, scoring 30+ in two of those. In terms of DEFF the Cowboys ranked a poor 25th but also only allowed 20.1PPG which was top 10. Dallas is on a 6-1 ATS run on the road and we like a close game throughout. |
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09-08-18 | Michigan State -6 v. Arizona State | Top | 13-16 | Loss | -102 | 36 h 58 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan State Spartans (-) over Arizona State Sun Devils, Saturday at 10:45 ET: Game #393 |
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01-21-18 | Jaguars v. Patriots -7 | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -104 | 47 h 56 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* New England -7 over Jacksonville, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET This line has dropped from 9.5 down to -7 with concerns of Tom Brady’s throwing hand which was banged up in practice earlier this week. Brady was seen practicing and throwing with a glove on his hand late in the week. We all know the Pats and Belichick are very good at throwing out this type of stuff leading into big games and while we don’t necessarily want to say this is a hoax as Brady may have banged his hand in practice, we’ll guess it’s not all that serious and he’ll be fine. With that being said, we like the Pats here. While Jacksonville won a huge game @ Pittsburgh last week, let’s remember the Steelers were their own worst enemy AGAIN! The Steelers outgained the Jags by 170 yards but had 2 turnovers (including a fumble returned for a TD) and were stopped twice in Jacksonville territory on 4th and short situations. While we did like Pittsburgh last week, they are not well coached in our opinion and have a tendency to play great some games and sort of get in their own way in others. New England doesn’t do that. They will not “give” the game away to Jacksonville by gifting them with mistakes as Pitt did in both games vs the Jags. The Patriots have a huge experience edge in this situations as well as a massive coaching edge. This is their 7th consecutive AFC Championship game while Jacksonville last appeared in this game way back in 1999 (two years after we opened our doors as ASA Inc)! The Patriots have a big edge offensively and a Grand Canyon sized edge at QB. While the Jags are very good defensively, let’s not forget that the Patriot defense has given up fewer points than any other team in the NFL since week 5. The Jags pass defense ranks #1 in the NFL but they have faced only 3 QB’s all season long ranked in the top 10 in QBR and two of those teams lit them up pretty good. Situationally, the Jags are coming off possibly their biggest win in franchise history and they are on the road again this week. This is actually their 4th road game in the last 5 week. They scored 45 points in their win last week which is a terrible omen as teams they score 40 or more points in a playoff win are a terrible 4-25 ATS their following game! Let’s also not forget this Jacksonville offense has scored only 10 points in each of their previous two games vs Buffalo and Tennessee leading into last week’s win. Brady has started in 21 home playoff games and he’s won 18 of them. He’s also covered 65% of his home playoff games. We think the Jags will hang around for awhile the Pats, who’ve outscored their opponents 80-25 in the 2nd half of their last 4 playoffs games, will pull away and pick up a double digit win. |