Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-02-24 | Nationals v. Rangers -1.5 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show | |
#961 ASA PLAY ON Texas Rangers -1.5 on the Run Line (+100) over Washington Nationals, Thursday at 2:35 PM ET - Rangers off a shutout loss 1-0 yesterday. Bounce back spot here for Texas and they have a solid pitching edge here too. Mitchell Parker gets the start for the Nationals and he has been shaky in both his road starts including the most recent one. That was against a weak hitting Marlins team in Miami and Parker had to navigate 8 baserunners in just 4 innings and was fortunate to allow only 1 run. The Rangers are going with Nathan Eovaldi here and, though he has had some issues with walks this season, he has been strong overall at home and has a huge experience edge over Parker here. Eovaldi is entering his 14th season and he has a 2.04 ERA at home and has piled up strikeouts there! The Rangers are 10-1 this season when off a loss by a margin of 4 or less runs and that includes 8 in a row! This spot should make 9 in a row as Washington is 1-5 this season when off a road win by a margin of 2 or less runs. Remember last season only ONE team in the NL had fewer wins than the Nationals. As for the Rangers, they are the defending World Series Champions (Eovaldi was 5-0 in P/O and was the winning pitcher in the World Series clincher)! Given that, as well as all of the above and the great situational support, this is a superb spot. Big edges in this one and a home blowout is our call. We think we're getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a price in the even money range with the Rangers. Great spot to grab the solid value with the 1.5 runs! Lay it! |
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04-29-24 | Twins -1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
#913 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (+110) over Chicago White Sox, Monday at 7:40 PM ET - We had our eyes on this one for a few days and everything has come together nicely for a big play. The White Sox have suddenly won 3 straight but faced a struggling Rays team that has now lost 6 of 7 and has not been playing good baseball. Now this 6-22 Chicago team faces a red hot Minnesota club that just swept them in a 4-games series and followed it up by sweeping the Angels in a 3-game series! Our concern with the Twins early this season was their bats but they are absolutely getting it going now and are loaded with confidence at the plate. Also, they have scored at least 5 runs in all 7 victories in their 7 game winning streak and they just pounded the Angels by a combined 27-10 in the last two games of that 3-game sweep! The Twins bats have come alive big-time! Also, they hold a big pitching edge here. Yes, Garrett Crochet has some impressive strikeout numbers this season but he has struggled with allowing too many hits, including big hits, in his last 3 starts. It has been like Jekyll and Hyde when you look at Crochet's first 3 starts compared to his next 3 starts this season. He also just faced the Twins and struggled as part of a stretch in which the young hurler has allowed at least 5 earned runs in all 3 starts even though he has not gotten past the 5th inning in any of the outings! He will be no match for Joe Ryan here. Like Crochet, Ryan is piling up strikeouts too. However, unlike Crochet, Ryan is a veteran pitcher and he has been in consistently strong form all season long. He recently pitched very well against the White Sox and he also has been in top form in his two road starts this season with just 1 earned run allowed in each. 11 of the Twins 14 wins this season have been by 2 or more runs. 16 of the last 19 losses that Chicago has suffered have been of the multi-run variety. We are going to take advantage of the value on the run line here in a game our computer math model shows strong odds of turning into a road rout. Lay the 1.5 with Minnesota |
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04-28-24 | Astros -1.5 v. Rockies | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 28 m | Show | |
#975 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-150) over Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Astros won 12-4 yesterday and the posted total on this game is 16 because of where it is being played. This one at Estadio Alfredo Harp Helú in Mexico City. Yesterday's game totaled 16 runs and this 2-game series is playing out in similar fashion to last year's 2-game series between the Padres and Giants in the thin air of Mexico City and with this stadium having modest dimensions. The thing is, just like yesterday, it is the Astros bats that will make the most noise. The Rockies have just 2 high-scoring wins in their current 3-10 run over the last 13 games. How did those other 11 games go? Just 1.8 runs scored per game! This is despite many of those games being played at hitter-friendly Coors Field. The fact is that Colorado is just not hitting! As for the Astros, they have had a surprisingly tough start to this season and also have struggled at the plate but yesterday's game is a sign of things to come! Houston won 12 to 4 yesterday and had 6 extra-base hits including 3 homers while the Rockies had just 1 extra base hit - a 2-run homer by McMahon in the first inning. The Astros scored the next 12 runs in that game after that McMahon bomb. In the pitching match-up today Valdez has pitched less so far this season but his ERA is half of Gomber's ERA plus he has allowed no homers while Gomber has already allowed 4 long balls! Also, Valdez dominated in his 2nd start after struggling some in his first start. Gomber had an ERA of at least 5.50 each of the last two seasons while Valdez entered this season 40-23 the last 3 seasons and with an ERA right around the 3.00 mark! Another road blowout expected here per our computer math model. Lay it as, just like yesterday, the Astros roll big again! |
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04-25-24 | White Sox v. Twins -1.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 22 m | Show | |
#912 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Chicago White Sox, Thursday at 2:10 PM ET - We will mention the starting pitching too but this play has to do with the overall mismatch and the horrid start the White Sox have had to this season. We were a little leery of the Twins bats and have stayed away from this series so far because of that. A win by just one run in Game 2 of the 4-game set validated the caution. However, the Twins did win big again yesterday and are now going for the 4-game sweep and 2 of the 3 wins in this series have been by at least a 3-run margin. The White Sox are simply dreadful overall and also at the plate! Chicago has scored an average of only 2.2 runs per game this season! Their record is now 3-21 this season and they have gone 1-12 away from home! They have lost 6 straight and have gone 1-11 last 12 games with an aggregate average score of 6.4 to 2.0 in those games. Yes they are not only losing but losing bad and we expect that to continue here. The Twins have scored 19 runs so far in this series and confidence is increasing. Chicago's Soroka is 0-3 this season and has struggled badly in 4 of his 5 starts this season. Minnesota's Woods-Richardson had a great first start this season and though he has had some struggles in the minors this season, he was solid against the Tigers and will take advantage of facing the worst hitting team in baseball here plus he has the luxury of pitching at home. 15 of Chicago's last 18 losses have been by a multi-run margin and, per our computer math model, this one plays out in similar fashion. Another ugly loss for the White Sox. Lay it with the Twins. Minnesota has had a tough early season schedule - look at the teams they have faced and their records - but they are now 3-0 against the only team they have faced that currently has a losing record on the season and that is these downtrodden White Sox. Lay the 1.5 with Minnesota
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04-24-24 | Marlins v. Braves -1.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
#962 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Miami Marlins, Wednesday at 7:20 PM ET - Sixto Sanchez is slated to get the start here for the Marlins but he is really just an opener. That being said, we are not concerned with the starting pitcher here as it is likely that Kyle Tyler could be in line to get significant work behind Sixto in this one. Marlins already have bullpen injury issues and that is why Tyler is being called up even though he struggled in his most recent outing at the AAA level. Sanchez just now getting back from shoulder injuries in recent years. Tyler hardly has any big league experience. The Braves are expected to start Reynaldo Lopez here. He has been fantastic this season with just 1 earned run allowed on 11 hits while striking out 18 in 18 innings! There is also a great disparity between these two lineups! Marlins have a .321 slugging percentage this season while the Braves have a .471 slugging percentage this season! Atlanta is 16-6 this season and 12 of the 16 wins have been by at least 2 runs! Marlins are 6-19 this season and 16 of their 19 losses by 2+ runs! Miami is just 2-10 in evening games this season. Atlanta has feasted on sub-par competition this season going 11-2 against teams with a sub-.500 record! Atlanta enters this game on an 8-1 run. Miami has scored just 1.7 runs per game in their last 6 losses. Atlanta has scored 6 runs per game in last 8 wins. 6 to 2 sounds about right to us in this one and the Braves have outscored Miami 25 to 8 in the 4 wins in their 4-1 record against the Marlins this season. That is an average score of 6 to 2 as well. Another mismatch here and the Marlins have been shutout in each of the first two games in this series as well. The Marlins just don't have the bats to keep up here. Big edges in this one and a home blowout is our call. We think we're getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and only having to invest at a relatively low price in the -125 range with the Braves. Lay it! |
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04-23-24 | Orioles -1.5 v. Angels | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
#927 ASA PLAY ON Baltimore Orioles -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Los Angeles Angels, Tuesday at 9:38 PM ET - The Orioles are not only 15-7 this season, 14 of their 15 wins have been by 2 or more runs. There is no hesitation for us in laying the 1.5 runs here. Also, Baltimore is hot as they have won 7 of 8 games! The Orioles are hitting much better than the Angels this season plus they have the pitching edge here too. Baltimore's Grayson Rodriguez is 3-0 with a 2.63 ERA this season! The Angels Griffin Canning is 0-3 with an 8.05 ERA this season! The Orioles have averaged 6 runs per game in their last 9 games. LA has averaged 1.8 runs per game in their last 5 games, all defeats! Not only have the Angels lost 5 straight games, they also have lost 10 of 13 since their 6-4 start this season. 11 of 14 Los Angeles defeats this season have come by a multi-run margin. The Orioles full season slugging percentage is about 100 points higher than that of the Angels who have Trout and Ward and O'Hoppe in their lineup but very little else up and down the lineup! The Orioles will pull away as this game goes on. The Angels just don't have the bats to keep up here. Big edges in this one and a road blowout is our call. We think we're getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a plus money price in the +105 range with the Orioles. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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04-21-24 | Mariners -1.5 v. Rockies | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 36 m | Show |
(Game ONE of double-header) #925 ASA PLAY ON Seattle Mariners -1.5 -120 over Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 3:10 PM ET - The Rockies are 4-16 on the season and have lost 6 straight games! The Mariners have won 4 straight games and have been getting great pitching. Speaking of great pitching, George Kirby is more than capable of that and he has already proven that in recent seasons plus in 2 of his 4 starts this season. Kirby has a great SO to BB ratio even though he had a couple rare tough starts this season. He is going to take advantage of facing a slumping Rockies team. Colorado has been shutout 3 times recently and been held to 3 or less runs in 8 of 9 recent losses. Rockies just are not hitting and that will not get any easier facing Kirby as he has a strong repertoire of pitches. Colorado is 2-10 last 12 games and in the 9 most recent losses the Rockies scored an average of only 2 runs per game. The Mariners have scored an average of 6 runs per game during their current 4-game win streak. Seattle should continue to heat up at the plate as they are slated to face Cal Quantrill in Game 1 of this double-header. Quantrill only had solid strikeout numbers in one of his starts and gave up 8 hits in 6 innings in that one. In his other 3 starts he has walked 7 and struck out only 5. That kind of ratio will get you into trouble at Coors Field and, with Seattle's bats starting to heat up, a tough afternoon for Quantrill is projected here. He had a 5.24 ERA last season and that was with Cleveland and he has a 5.57 ERA this season with the Rockies. Also, in terms of bullpens, the Mariners have a 2.84 ERA and 1.01 WHIP and the Rockies have a 5.55 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP! Mariners get the call for a blowout road win in Game 1 of this double-header Sunday.
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04-12-24 | Braves -1.5 v. Marlins | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
#953 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Miami Marlins, Friday at 7 PM ET - The Braves are off a loss and have not lost B2B games this season. Not only that, it was a 16-4 loss and this was after Atlanta started the season 7-3 and all 3 losses were by just a single run. Atlanta will be very focused today after being on the wrong end of a rare bad beatdown in their most recent game. The Marlins are off a win but that was just their 2nd win of the season as they lost 10 of 11 to start the season. Also, prior to a 3-2 loss in the most recent defeat, Miami was on a run in which, since their season opener, each of their next 9 losses had all come by 2+ runs. We have no hesitation in laying the 1.5 runs here even though Max Fried is off to a rare bad start to this season. If he struggles here, the Braves have a rested bullpen as they had a rainout Wednesday and then Thursday they used just 3 relievers over 4 innings and their best bullpen guys are rested and ready here. Trevor Rogers, the Marlins starter, has also struggled early this season and the Miami bullpen behind him has one of the worst WHIPs (1.62) in the majors so far this season. The big key here is at the plate as the Braves are hitting .303 for the #1 batting average in the majors while the Marlins are hitting .204 for the worst batting average in the National League. Atlanta gets back on track after the ugly loss as they outscored the opposition by an average score of 6.9 to 4.3 over their first 10 games. The Marlins last 10 losses have been by an average margin of 3.9 runs! Miami has been held to 2 or less runs in 5 of last 6 losses and now, facing the hottest lineup in the majors, the Braves will pull away as this game goes on. The Marlins just don't have the bats to keep up here. Big edges in this one and a road blowout is our call. We think we're getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and only having to invest a pick'em price in the -115 range with the Braves. Lay it! |
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04-10-24 | Marlins v. Yankees -1.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
#978 ASA PLAY ON New York Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Miami Marlins, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Yankees favored by a little over -200 on the money line so, of course, the value way to look at this match-up is the run line and what a value it is! This match-up is featuring the team with the best record in the league against the team with the worst record thus far as the 10-2 Yankees wrap up their 3-game set with the Marlins. The Yankees are 10-2 this season and the Marlins are 1-11 thus far. Yankees have a fantastic 2.48 team ERA on the season while Miami has a 5.17 team ERA on the season. Specifically about the starters here, the Marlins send Ryan Weathers to the mound and he has a 6.14 ERA in his 22 innings since coming to Miami from San Diego during last season. He has walked 17 batters in 22 innings and that includes command issues already this season as well. New York's Stroman on the other hand has allowed no earned runs and only 7 hits in his 12 innings on the mound so far this season. He is very happy to be back home as he is a New York native and always wanted to wear the Yankees pinstripes! He already had his home debut versus the Blue Jays and dominated them. He should have no trouble with this struggling Marlins lineup. Miami is hitting just .204 this season and has scored an average of only 3 runs in their 11 losses. The Yankees are hitting .247 this season but with a slugging percentage near .400 compared to the Marlins near .300 slugging percentage! Also the Yankees have scored an average of 6 runs in their 10 wins this season. 6 to 3 (and at least a 2-run margin) sounds about right to us here! Huge edges here and a home blowout is our call. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and only having to lay a pick'em price in the -110 range with the Yankees. Lay it! |
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04-08-24 | Diamondbacks -1.5 v. Rockies | 5-7 | Loss | -118 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
#957 ASA PLAY ON Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Colorado Rockies, Monday at 8:40 PM ET - Arizona is off a tough series at Atlanta but, prior to dropping the finale of a series with the Yankees and then struggling with the red hot Braves, the Diamondbacks were 4-2 on the young season. Now they go from facing one of the best teams (Braves) to facing one of the worst (Rockies). Colorado is 2-8 this season and the Rockies already lost 3 of 4 at Arizona to start this season. However, it wasn't just that the Rockies lost 3 of 4, it was the fact Colorado was outscored by an aggregate of 32 to 14 in that series! On the season, the Diamondbacks have a 3.90 ERA compared to a 7.50 ERA for the Rockies. Additionally, when one looks at the two starting pitchers here, it is evident that Arizona has a huge edge. Zac Gallen is 2-0 with an 0.82 ERA on the season. He'll be on the hill for the Diamondbacks here while the Rockies turn to a struggling Kyle Freeland. The Colorado left-hander has been crushed in both his starts and those were each on the road and now he makes his first home start of the season at hitter-friendly Coors Field! He is allowing 3 earned runs per inning on the season after two starts - yes, a 27.00 ERA! Arizona is hitting .274 on the season and holding opponents to a .240 batting average. Colorado is hitting .240 on the season and their pitchers have an opponents batting average of .312 so far this season. Huge edges here and a road rout is our call. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and only having to lay a very reasonable price in the -120 range with the Diamondbacks. Lay it! |
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04-03-24 | Giants v. Dodgers -1.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
#910 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over San Francisco Giants, Wednesday at 10:10 PM ET - Even though Kyle Harrison is off a decent start to open up his season, he gave up some hard-hit balls including a number of line drive outs plus many of his outs were through the air. If he does not keep the ball down more against this tough Dodgers lineup he is in trouble here. Also, he is still just a 22-year old that only made 7 starts last season and had a respectable, but not spectacular, 4.15 ERA. He will not be able to match Tyler Glasnow here. Thanks to the Dodgers having opened the season in South Korea against the Padres, this is already the 3rd start for Glasnow. So far he has allowed only 4 hits in 11 innings and he has held hitters to a paltry .216 batting average in his career. Last season 84% of the Dodgers wins were by at least a 2-run margin and no team in baseball had a better home record than their 53-28 mark. This is a match-up they should dominate. LA is hitting better than the Giants so far this season and SF pitching is getting hit at a .291 clip while Dodgers pitching is allowing only a .226 batting average! We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and only having to lay a very small price in the -105 money range with the Dodgers. Lay it! |
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10-03-23 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 36 m | Show |
#950 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday at 7:08 PM ET - The Brewers set to win huge in this one with a massive pitching edge. The Diamondbacks will have to contend with Milwaukee’s ace Corbin Burnes and this will likely make for a night of misery for Arizona at the plate while the Brewers should enjoy facing a pitcher that was hit hard in September and, overall, has had an unimpressive season. Brandon Pfaadt is a rookie that went 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA this season. Even though his ERA was a more respectable 4.22 since the all-star break, he is coming off a September in which opponents hit .288 against him. This is a tough spot for a young guy like Pfaadt pitching on the road in the first game of the post-season and especially when such a tough veteran pitcher is on the other side. Unlike Pfaadt, the Brewers Burnes has been top notch this season and also just delivered another strong month of September in terms of being very tough to hit! Burnes has allowed just 8 earned runs on only 19 hits while striking out 33 in the 28.2 innings over his 5 starts since the end of August. A strong stretch like this for Burnes should not come as a surprise as he led the N.L. in strike outs last season and fanned 200 again this season! The Brewers have won 8 of 12 and have scored 5.3 runs a game in last 12 games. The Diamondbacks wrapped the season losing 4 straight games and have scored just 1.2 runs per game last 5 games. 57 of 78 Arizona losses have been by at least a 2-run margin this year and Milwaukee has allowed an average of just 1.4 runs per game in their last 8 wins. They again shutdown the opposition as Burnes comes up huge here and the Brewers also hold the bullpen edge with ERA ranked 2nd compared to Diamondbacks ERA ranked 18th on the season. This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Brewers on the run line big in this one. |
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09-28-23 | A's v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
#962 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Oakland Athletics, Thursday at 1:10 PM ET - Taking a look at the projected starters here, the Twins are likely going with Sonny Gray and the A's are likely going with Luis Medina. Either way, Minnesota is the play here as Oakland is wrapping up a miserable season with more and more misery. The Athletics have dropped to 48-110 on the season and are 21-73 against teams with a winning record this season. The Twins are 47-33 at home this season and this is their regular season home finale. 83 of Oakland's 110 losses have been by 2 or more runs. 67 of Minnesota's 85 wins this season have been by 2 or more runs. Sonny Gray has a 1.96 ERA this month and had a 2.04 ERA last month and he has a 1.77 ERA in day games this season. Luis Medina is 0-5 with a 6.45 ERA in day games and 1-6 with a 6.60 ERA in road games. He had a 6.10 ERA last month and has a 6.62 ERA last month. This is another complete mismatch and Minnesota also has the much better bullpen in addition to the much better lineup - even if they rest a player or two here. We are getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and only having to lay rather small juice with the Twins. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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09-26-23 | Nationals v. Orioles -1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
#980 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baltimore Orioles -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Washington Nationals, Tuesday at 6:35 PM ET - The Orioles are hungry to lock down the AL East. They are getting close but they are not quite there yet. Here they will take advantage of facing a struggling Nationals club and move one step closer to a division title. While Washington is wrapping up another frustrating season, Baltimore has won 6 of 9 games and is looking to top the Rays for the division title after falling just short of the post-season last year. The Orioles have a big pitching edge here with Kyle Bradish over Josiah Gray. Though Gray is coming off decent starts recently, he faced non-playoff level clubs that were struggling. This is a much tougher match-up for him here and he was very fortunate against Baltimore earlier this season when he allowed only 1 earned run in 5 innings despite walking 4 batters and giving up 8 baserunners overall in the short outing. In his last 4 starts against playoff-level teams - Marlins, Phillies, Brewers, Blue Jays - Gray has allowed 16 earned runs in 14.1 innings! As for the Orioles Bradish, his numbers are already extremely strong on the season but when you take out the only very ugly start he had (7 earned runs allowed) it shows just how amazingly consistent he has been this season. Taking out his ugliest outing this season, Bradish is 11-6 with a 2.65 ERA and this is a guy who averages one strikeout per inning and also he dominated Washington when he faced them earlier this season! The Orioles right-hander had a fantastic August and is following it up with a dominant September. The Orioles are on pace for at least 100 wins this season and 70% of their wins have been by at least a 2-run margin. The Nationals are mired in a 8-19 slump and 17 of their last 18 defeats (94%!) have been by at least 2 runs! This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Orioles big on the run line in this one. |
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09-20-23 | Angels v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
#972 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Los Angeles Angels, Wednesday at 6:40 PM ET - Taking a look at the projected starters here, the Rays are expected to start Aaron Civale. He has been victimized a bit by the long ball in recent starts but Civale also has held hitters to a .185 batting average this month and just 26 hits in 31 innings dating back to mid-August while striking out 42 in those 31 innings! Consider that the Angels expected starter here is Reid Detmers and he has a lower ERA in September than Civale but Detmers has been fortunate as opponents are hitting .280 against him in this two starts this month and, by the way, opponents hit .308 against him in the month of August. Detmers is 1-6 with a 5.40 ERA this season in his dozen road starts. Civale is 5-1 with a 2.51 ERA in night games this season and he has held hitters to a .215 batting average in those dozen starts. As we mentioned here yesterday, this Angels team has already packed it in for the season. Ohtani is now shut down for the season and they unloaded some veterans when they could with only Grichuk - now one of their top veteran hitters in the lineup - being stuck with the team. Trout has still been out and may not even play again this season. If you look at their current lineup they are fielding on a regular basis of late, it is no wonder that the Angels have lost 6 straight games and been outscored 38 to 13 in those 6 defeats. This Angels team is struggling badly and done for the year. The Rays are still in a battle for both the AL East title as well as the top record in the AL. Though the Rays entered this series off B2B losses, TB was on a 29-13 run prior to these consecutive defeats. As we mentioned here yesterday, they are happy to be back home after that tough series at Baltimore. Now, after yesterday's 6-2 win over the Angels, Tampa Bay has won 13 of last 17 on their home field. 10 of last 11 Rays home wins have come by at least 2 runs. 20 of last 26 Angels losses by at least 2 runs. This one should be another one that falls into that multi-run margin category! We are getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and having to lay only very small juice with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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09-19-23 | Angels v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
#914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (+100) over Los Angeles Angels, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Taking a look at the projected starters here, the Rays are expected to start Taj Bradley. He has been victimized a bit by the long ball in recent starts but Bradley also has held hitters to a .226 batting average since the All-Star break while striking out 38 over 29 innings! Consider that the Angels expected starter here is Patrick Sandoval and he is 0-3 with a 6.59 ERA and opponents hitting .333 against him in the month of September. Sandoval has really been struggling and though Bradley's numbers have not been great, this Angels team has already packed it in for the season. Ohtani is now shut down for the season and they unloaded some veterans when they could with only Grichuk - now one of their top veteran hitters in the lineup - being stuck with the team. Trout is still out and may not even play again this season. If you look at their current lineup they are fielding on a regular basis of late, it is no wonder that the Angels have lost 5 straight games and been outscored 32 to 11 in those 5 defeats. This Angels team is struggling badly and done for the year. The Rays are still in a battle for the AL East title and top record in the AL. Though off B2B losses, TB was on a 29-13 run prior to these consecutive defeats. They are happy to be back home after a tough series at Baltimore and Tampa Bay has won 12 of last 16 on their home field. 9 of last 10 Rays home wins by at least 2 runs. 19 of last 25 Angels losses by at least 2 runs. This one should be another one that falls into that multi-run margin category! We are getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and not having to lay any juice with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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09-18-23 | Brewers -1.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
#955 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over St Louis Cardinals, Monday at 7:45 PM ET - Freddy Peralta expected to start for Milwaukee and he is 7-1 with a 2.51 ERA since the All-Star break and has held hitters to a .159 batting average in those 11 starts! Adam Wainwright is having a rough season and is off his first win since the All-Star break. Though he got the win in that game Wainwright actually had a WHIP of 2.00 in the start with 7 hits and 3 walks in 5 innings. Wainwright was far from dominant and his rough season includes a 1-7 mark with an 8.29 ERA since the All-Star break in his 9 starts. On the season, opponents are hitting .354 against him. St Louis off a win over the Phillies yesterday but had lost 11 of 17 games heading into that one including 9 of last 13 home games prior to the tight win versus Philadelphia Sunday. The Cardinals are dead last in the NL Central while the Brewers had won 3 straight games prior to yesterday's loss and remain at the top of the same division - the NL Central. Of course the Brewers are a rather high-priced money line favorite here for good reason. Where we get the value is with the run line and laying the 1.5 runs. The Cardinals have 58 of 83 losses this season by at least a 2-run margin. 57 of Milwaukee's 84 wins this season have been by 2+ runs. The Brewers last dozen wins have all been by multi-run margins and the average margin of victory was 4.3 runs in those 12 wins! The Cardinals have been slumping overall and 17 of their last 19 defeats have been by at least 2 runs! This game has road rout written all over it. We like the Brewers to bounce back back from yesterday's loss to the Nationals and Milwaukee gets it done on the run line in this one. |
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09-17-23 | Nationals v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
#906 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Washington Nationals, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET - Brandon Woodruff is 18-5 combined the past two seasons! The Brewers right-hander has a 1.93 ERA this season and opponents are hitting just .161 against him. Patrick Corbin is 27-55 the past 4 seasons combined. His ERA is currently above 5.00 and this is the third straight season that the Nationals left-hander is producing an ERA above the 5.00 level. Corbin is off a rare quality start at Pittsburgh but this was preceded by allowing 14 earned runs in 9 innings over his two prior starts. Washington has lost 5 straight games and is dead last in the NL East while the Brewers have won 3 straight and are at the top of the NL Central! Of course the Brewers are a high-priced money line favorite here for good reason. Where we get the value is with the run line and laying the 1.5 runs. The Nationals have 64 of 84 losses this season by at least a 2-run margin. 57 of Milwaukee's 84 wins this season have been by 2+ runs. The Brewers last dozen wins have all been by multi-run margins and the average margin of victory was 4.3 runs in those 12 wins! The Nationals are mired in a 4-15 slump and 13 of their last 14 defeats have been by at least 2 runs! This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Brewers on the run line in this one. |
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09-11-23 | Angels v. Mariners -1.5 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 13 m | Show |
#926 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Los Angeles Angels, Monday at 9:40 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Mariners to roll to a big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Seattle is expected to send Logan Gilbert to the mound to start this one. As for the Angels, Reid Detmers will be the likely starter for Los Angeles here. Seattle's Gilbert is 13-5 this season and he has a 3.34 ERA in night games. He is 8-0 since July 1st and has an ERA under 3.00 since then! The Angels Detmers is 3-10 this season including 1-6 with a 5.60 ERA on the road this season. Detmers is 1-4 with a 5.80 ERA since the All-Star break. The Mariners have lost 3 straight games but they just faced the Rays in Tampa Bay. They now go from facing one of the best teams in baseball on the road to now hosting one of the majors' worst teams. Yes the Angels are in a free-fall despite rare B2B wins. They were outhit 8 to 3 in yesterday's 2-1 win and if you look at their lineup it is currently a shell of what it used to be. No wonder the Angels had lost 26 of 35 games prior to the rare B2B wins. By the way, LA has not won 3 straight games since July so the odds certainly favor Seattle getting the win here. In terms of a big-margin win, 16 of the Angels last 20 losses have been by 2 or more runs. Also, the Mariners have one of the top bullpens in MLB while the Angels have one of the worst. Also, Seattle has not lost 4 straight games since April so this is a great spot from a technical standpoint in terms of putting the odds in our favor. Angels off B2B wins, Mariners off 3 straight losses, and the likelihood (based on odds) of what comes next! Seattle is 24-12 in divisional games this season and 57 of Mariners 79 wins this season have been by a multi-run margin. All the edges point to the home team and a big-margin win here and we are getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a price in the -105 money range with the Mariners. Lay it! |
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09-04-23 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
#954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Colorado Rockies, Monday at 4:10 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Diamondbacks to roll to a big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Arizona is expected to send Merrill Kelly to the mound to start this one. Kelly is 10-6 this season and has been particularly tough at home. Kelly has a 2.96 ERA in games at Chase Field this season and opponents are hitting just .187 against him in those 12 starts. As for Colorado, Peter Lambert will be the likely starter for the Rockies here. He went 1-4 with a 5.23 ERA in his 6 starts last month. In his MLB career, Lambert is 6-12 with a 6.36 ERA and opponents are hitting .303 against him in his MLB career. Also, the Rockies bullpen has a 5.32 team ERA this season to rank near the bottom of the majors! The Diamondbacks bullpen has not been great but they are better than the Rockies! Colorado has been dreadful on the road again this season as, overall, the Rockies are 21-48 this season in road games including losses in 27 of last 35 away from home! Also, they are 22-58 this season against teams with a winning record. Additionally, 68 of the Rockies 86 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin. 53 of Arizona's 70 wins this season have come by a multi-run margin. The Diamondbacks are tied with 3 other teams - Marlins, Reds, Giants - for the 3rd and final wild card spot (amazing 4-way tie now) in the NL with just 25 games remaining in the season. Arizona is still fighting hard while the Rockies are dead last in the entire NL and simply can't wait for the season to be over. The Dbacks are 38-21 against teams with a losing record and are off B2B losses but had won 8 of 9 home games prior to the tough defeats to the Orioles. All the edges point to the home team and another big-margin win here and we are getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a price in the -115 money range with the Diamondbacks. Lay it! |
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09-02-23 | Blue Jays -1.5 v. Rockies | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
#979 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 8:10 PM ET - Even if you call the pitching match-up even - and we do not feel that way as the Blue Jays have an edge - the fact is Toronto has a huge overall team edge and the stronger batting lineup and better bullpen. The Rockies season is over and they have lost 4 straight games and are 21-57 this season against teams with a winning record. The Blue Jays are in a dogfight for a playoff berth as they are having another strong season and are also 36-19 this season against teams with a losing record. You can see the odds strongly favor another road win here and Toronto won yesterday's game 13 to 9. The Blue Jays 74 wins this season have included 51 by a mult-run margin. The Rockies 85 losses have included a whopping 67 by a multi-run margin. The Jays Kikuchi is 9-4 with a 3.63 ERA this season. The Rockies Blach has worked out of the bullpen for much of his career and he has a 4.97 ERA in his career and has been hit at a .295 batting average this season. More of the same expected here and the Colorado bullpen is a weakness also. We will lay the run line with the road team in this evening game Saturday! |
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08-30-23 | A's v. Mariners -1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
#918 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Oakland Athletics, Wednesday at 4:10 PM ET - Stop the presses...the A's actually won a game against a good team yesterday. All kidding aside, it has absolutely been a dreadful season for Oakland and so wins catch some attention especially over good teams. Not only is Oakland 20-63 against teams with a winning record, they are also 7-29 in divisional games and an insane 9-44 in day games! The Mariners had won 12 of 13 games prior to yesterday's loss and they are 25-7 since they were at .500 back in late July when they were 50-50. This team is red hot and we do not foresee the Athletics shocking everyone by winning this series by notching B2B wins. Seattle is 43-24 against teams with a losing record and 23-12 in divisional games. Oakland very often gets blown out when they do lose and this looks like another blowout loss here. The Athletics last 24 losses have included plenty of ugly ones and the average margin of defeat in those losses is 4 runs! On the season, 70 of Oaklands 94 losses have been by at least a 2-run margin. 56 of 75 Seattle wins have come by at least a 2-run margin. As for the pitchers here, Bryce Miller is now 5-2 with a 3.53 ERA in home games and 5-1 with a 3.56 ERA in day games! He has held opponents to a .218 batting average in his 11 home starts this season. Oakland's Zach Neal has struggled at the minor league level so it is no surprise his major league numbers are unimpressive as well. Neal had a 6.87 ERA in the minors last season and had a 5.40 ERA this season which also has been the 4th straight year at the minor league level in which Neal has allowed at least a .292 batting average! No big surprise that Neal has been hit at a .324 clip for the A's this season and walks have also been an issue for him. In terms of bullpens, the Mariners team ERA ranks 3rd in the majors while the Athletics pen ranks dead last at 30th in MLB! This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Mariners on the run line in this one and look for another big win just like 12 of their last 15 wins coming by a margin of at least 2 runs. Note the 94 to 30 combined score in those 12 blowout wins. We will lay the run line with the home team in this day game Wednesday! |
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08-27-23 | Astros -1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 17-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
#965 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Detroit Tigers, Sunday at 1:40 PM ET - The Astros are 41-20 this season against teams with a losing record. The Tigers are 30-47 against teams with a winning record this season. Detroit has not played well at home this season as they are 8 games below .500 when hosting. The Tigers 11 of last 12 losses have been defeats by a multi-run margin. The Astros have won 11 of last 17 road games and 12 of their last 15 victories have been by 2 or more runs. More of the same expected here as Houston got back on track with a big 9-2 win yesterday and they have the pitching edge here in addition to the overall team edge. Astros bullpen ranks 8th for team ERA while the Tigers bullpen ranks 18th for team ERA this season. Houston's slugging percentage in road games ranks 5th in the majors while Detroit's slugging percentage in home games ranks 28th in the majors. In terms of starting pitching, the Tigers Alex Faedo continues to give up big hits and have those trouble spots. Yes, Faedo has been better than last season's 1-5 with a 5.53 ERA on the year but still this season he has a 5.65 ERA in home games and this is a tough spot for him facing the defending champs. Conversely, the Astros again have Justin Verlander on their squad after getting him back from the Mets. Verlander was with the Tigers for more than a dozen years to start his career so this is always a special start for him facing the team he started his career with nearly 20 years ago. Verlander comes into the start producing very well as usual and he has been red hot since the start of July and it has carried into his move back to Houston this month. it continues here against the light-hitting Tigers! We’ll lay the -1.5 here. |
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08-24-23 | Reds v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
#904 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 on the Run Line (+125) over Cincinnati Reds, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET - The Reds off double-header sweep on the road yesterday and now on the road again for this one. That makes this a tough spot for Cincinnati and they are running into a tough hurler too. The Diamondbacks are starting Merrill Kelly in this one and he is 7-3 with a 2.51 ERA in his night starts this season. Opponents are hitting just .206 against him in his evening games and just .200 against him in his home starts. The Reds are expected to counter with Brandon Williamson here. He has a 5.24 ERA in night games this season and a 4.43 ERA so far in the month of August. Williamson is facing an Arizona team that has won 9 of 11 games and 7 of those 9 wins have come by at least a 2-run margin. The Reds have now won 3 straight games but this was on the heels of a 5-12 stretch for Cincinnati and 9 of those 12 losses were by a multi-run margin. That is why, instead of laying the bigger juice on the money line in this one, we turn to the run line for maximum line value here. The hosts should roll big in this one. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a price in the +125 comeback range with the Diamondbacks. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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08-23-23 | Mariners -1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
#959 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Chicago White Sox, Wednesday at 2:10 PM ET - Seattle has won the first two games of this series by an aggregate score of 20 to 5! The Mariners have won 8 straight games and are 21-5 since they were at .500 back in late July when they were 50-50. This team is red hot and we do not foresee the White Sox slowing them down in the finale of this 3-game series. Chicago is 21-50 this season against teams with a winning record. Seattle is 39-22 against teams with a losing record. The White Sox have lost 20 of 28 games (28.6% winning percentage!) after dropping the first two games of this series! Chicago very often gets blown out when they do lose and this looks like another blowout loss here. The White Sox have 23 losses since the All Star break and the average margin of defeat in those losses is 4 runs! On the season, 55 of Chicago's 77 losses have been by at least a 2-run margin. 53 of 71 Seattle wins have come by at least a 2-run margin. The White Sox play in the AL Central division which is the weakest in all of MLB. They have a winning record (19-17) in divisional games but are 30-60 this season outside of their division! As for the pitchers here, George Kirby is in his 2nd season in the majors and, just like his rookie season, he has been consistently solid. He is now 18-13 with a 3.30 ERA in his 49 career MLB starts and has held opponents to a .187 batting average in his 3 starts in the month of August. Chicago's Michael Kopech has a poor record again this year and now has a combined 10-20 record since the start of last season. Kopech has particularly struggled since the start of July as he had a 6.61 ERA in his 4 starts last month and has a 9.88 ERA in his 3 starts this month. In terms of bullpens, the Mariners team ERA ranks 4th in the majors while the White Sox pen ranks 26th in MLB! This game has road blowout written all over it. We like the Mariners on the run line in this one and look for another big win just like 9 of their last 11 wins. Note the 65-23 combined score in those 9 blowout wins. We will lay the run line with the road team in this day game Wednesday! |
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08-22-23 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Guardians | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
#923 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs (-125) over Cleveland Guardians, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET - The Dodgers are heating up again and delivering a big run since the calendar turned the page to August. The Dodgers are a team that is once again stacked this season. Los Angeles has won 13 of 14 games and is 17-2 last 19 games plus 62 of the Dodgers 76 wins this season were by a multi-run margin. The Dodgers are looking like they are getting primed for a huge post-season run and this includes rookie Bobby Miller providing a strong push for this team! Miller is 4-0 with a 2.19 ERA in road starts this season! He also is dominating August with a 1.15 ERA in his 3 starts for the month. Now he can dominate a Guardians team that has never faced him! As for Noah Syndergaard against the Dodgers, LA has a number of hitters that have experience against him. Also, Syndergaard has certainly not been at his best this season! He enters this start having allowed at least 5 earned runs in 5 of his last 7 starts! More of the same is likely here as the Dodgers stay hot while Cleveland's tough run continues. The Guardians have lost 22 of 36 games. Also, just because they are at home for this series does not mean they will right the ship! Cleveland has lost 7 of last 10 home games! 19 of the last 25 Guardians losses were by 2+ runs! The Dodgers have scored an average of 6 runs per game in their current run of 17-2 last 19 games! As you can see above, the key edges are with the road team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs in early evening action Tuesday. |
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08-21-23 | Mariners -1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 14-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 57 m | Show |
#959 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Chicago White Sox, Monday at 8:10 PM ET - The Mariners have won 6 straight games and are 19-5 since they were at .500 back in late July when they were 50-50. This team is red hot and we do not foresee the White Sox slowing them down in Game One of this series. Chicago is 21-48 this season against teams with a winning record. Seattle is 37-22 against teams with a losing record. The White Sox enter this game off a rare win and had lost 18 of 25 games (28% winning percentage!) before that win! Chicago very often gets blown out when they do lose and this looks like another blowout loss here. The White Sox have 21 losses since the All Star break and the average margin of defeat in those losses is 4 runs! On the season, 53 of Chicago's 75 losses have been by at least a 2-run margin. 51 of 69 Seattle wins have come by at least a 2-run margin. The White Sox play in the AL Central division which is the weakest in all of MLB. They have a winning record (19-17) in divisional games but are 30-58 this season outside of their division! As for the pitchers here, Luis Castillo had a 2.99 ERA and held opponents to a .212 batting average last season and he is at it again this year. Castillo has compiled a 3.23 ERA and has held hitters to a .216 batting average on the year. Chicago's Touki Toussaint is on his 4th team in 3 seasons so that says a lot about him. He is struggling again this year with a 1-5 record and he has a 5.14 ERA in his MLB career. Toussaint is winless with a 6.91 ERA in his 3 starts this month. In terms of bullpens, the Mariners team ERA ranks 3rd in the majors while the White Sox pen ranks 26th in MLB! This game has road blowout written all over it. We like the Mariners on the run line in this one and look for another big win just like 7 of their 8 wins before Sunday's tight 1-run win at Houston. Note the 45-18 combined score in those 7 blowout wins. We will lay the run line with the road team in this one! |
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08-19-23 | Pirates v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
#978 ASA PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (+120) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Twins to roll to a big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Minnesota is expected to send Sonny Gray to start this one. Gray is 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA in his 3 August starts and has struck out 25 while walking just 3 in his 19 innings this month! As for the Pirates, Mitch Keller will be the likely starter here. Keller is 0-4 with a 7.71 ERA in his 6 starts since the All-Star break and he has been hit at a .340 clip in these 6 outings! On the season Keller has a 5.00 ERA on the road and a 5.03 ERA in night games. Also, Twins are heating up again with wins in 4 of their last 5 and their 2nd half record being mediocre overall was certainly impacted by being road-heavy. This will be just their 13th home game since the break and they have had wins in 9 of 12 home games since the break. Also, 55 of the Pirates 68 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin. Minnesota has gone 37-28 against teams with a losing record this season. Pittsburgh is 28-50 against teams with a winning record this season. All the edges point to the home team and a big-margin win here and Minnesota's 64 wins this season have featured 48 of the 64 (75%) coming by a multi-run margin! Looking for a home blowout and we think we're getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a comeback return in the +120 money range with the Twins. Lay it! |
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08-17-23 | Red Sox -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 7-10 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
#961 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Boston Red Sox -1.5 runs (-115) over Washington Nationals, Thursday at 4:05 PM ET - Similar to our play on the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw last night, Boston's Chris Sale is a recent returnee from injury with one start under his belt since the return. Just like last night's blowout win for LA, we expect a similar result here and this time it is with the Red Sox at Washington. Sale had a stint on the injured list but has had a solid run and began August looking like he is ready to pick up right where he left off in early June after finding his stride this season with a solid month of May in particular. Over his last 7 starts, Sale has delivered a 2.43 ERA with a solid 48 strikeouts against just 5 walks in the 42 innings spanning those 7 starts. He should dominate here at Washington and he should get plenty of run support. Patrick Corbin is the expected starter for the Nationals and he is having another rough season. Corbin now has a record of 24-53 since the start of the 2020 season and opponents are hitting .323 against him in his home starts this year! Since the start of the 2020 season he has allowed an opponents batting average north of .300 and the Red Sox should pound him here. Boston is 21-13 against left-handed starters this season. On the season, 47 of 63 Red Sox wins and 49 of 67 Nationals losses have been by a multi-run margin. Washington is 30-43 against teams with a winning record this season. Boston has a respectable bullpen while the Nationals bullpen has an ERA that ranks dead last in the National League. As you can see above, the key edges are with the road team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Boston Red Sox -1.5 runs in afternoon action Thursday. |
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08-16-23 | Brewers v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 46 m | Show |
#906 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs (-105) over Milwaukee Brewers, Wednesday at 10:10 PM ET - The Dodgers are heating up again and delivering a big run since the calendar turned the page to August. The Dodgers are a team that is once again stacked this season. Los Angeles has won 9 straight games and us 13-1 last 14 games plus 59 of the Dodgers 72 wins this season were by a multi-run margin. The Dodgers are looking like they are getting primed for a huge post-season run and this includes Clayton Kershaw. He went 4-0 with a 1.09 ERA in June and held hitters to a .181 batting average for the month. He then had a stint on the injured list but has had a huge season and began August looking like he is ready to pick up right where he left off in June after 3 months of a solid season! Kershaw began August with a solid 5-inning stint versus Colorado. Now he can dominate the Brewers just like he did in May earlier this season in Milwaukee when he was also matched up with Wade Miley. Kershaw allowed just 1 earned run on only 5 hits in 7 innings while striking out 8 batters. As for Miley against the Dodgers, that was one of his worst starts of the season. Miley allowed 7 earned runs in 5 innings in that start as LA rocked him. More of the same is likely here while the Brewers mediocre run continues. Milwaukee, after yesterday's 6-2 loss to the Dodgers, has gone 11-12 last 23 games. 10 of those 12 Milwaukee losses were by 2+ runs and, on the season, 45 of 55 Brewers losses have been by a multi-run margin. The Dodgers have scored an average of 7 runs per game in the 13 wins in their current run of 13-1 last 14 games! As you can see above, the key edges are with the home team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs in late night action Wednesday. |
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08-15-23 | Tigers v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 115 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
#958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Detroit Tigers, Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Twins to roll to a big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Minnesota is expected to send Bailey Ober to start this one. Ober has a 3.03 ERA when he is on his home mound this season and opponents are hitting just .233 against him in those 11 starts. Though he was hit hard in most recent start it was at Detroit and he did strike out 9 in 6 innings in that outing. Look for him to get revenge here against the Tigers as now Minnesota is hosting in this divisional match-up and the Twins have won 7 of 9 home games since the All-Star break. As for the Tigers, Alex Faedo will be the likely starter here. Though he was on the mound when the Tigers just beat Ober and the Twins, he was not overly impressive in that outing including allowing 2 homers. Faedo has been fortunate in that most of his outings have been at home this season but now this will be just his 3rd start on the road this season and he allowed 3 homers in under 10 innings in the two prior starts away from home. We love the fact that the Twins are seeking revenge for dropping 3 of the last 4 games in the recent series loss at Detroit. Also, Twins are off B2B wins and their 2nd half record has been impacted by being road-heavy. This will be just their 10th home games since the break and, again, they had wins in 7 of 9 home games since the break. Also, 50 of the Tigers 65 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin. Minnesota has gone 34-24 against teams with a losing record this season. Detroit is 27-40 when facing teams with a winning record this season. All the edges point to the road team and a big-margin win here and Minnesota's 62 wins this season have featured 46 of the 62 coming by a multi-run margin! Looking for a home blowout and we think we're getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a comeback return in the +115 money range with the Twins. Lay it! |
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08-14-23 | Angels v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 0-12 | Win | 115 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
#906 ASA PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Los Angeles Angels, Monday at 8:05 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Rangers to roll to a big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Texas is expected to send Max Scherzer to start this one. Scherzer is 4-0 with a 2.47 ERA when he is on his home mound this season and opponents are hitting just .215 against him in those 8 starts. Also, he has been rock solid so far this month in August as he has gone 2-0 in his first two starts since coming to the Rangers from the Mets. As for the Angels, Patrick Sandoval will be the likely starter here. Though he has pitched better overall of late, his recent numbers on the road show that the damage away from home definitely could have been much worse. Sandoval, in his last 4 road starts has allowed 19 hits and walked 11 in 20 innings for a 1.50 WHIP. Also, The Rangers bullpen does have an unimpressive ERA but there has been some misfortune with that as their 1.22 WHIP ranks a solid 5th in the majors! Conversely, the Angels bullpen WHIP ranks them in the bottom 5 in the majors! The Angels are off a win but this followed losses in 9 of last 11 games. Also, 46 of the Angels 60 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin. The Rangers are off a loss but this followed wins in 10 of last 11 games! Also, Texas has gone 35-19 against teams with a losing record this season. The Angels are 34-44 when facing teams with a winning record this season. All the edges point to the road team and a big-margin win here and the Rangers 70 wins this season have featured 61 of the 70 (87% of them!) by a multi-run margin! Looking for a home blowout and we think we're getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a comeback return in the +115 money range with the Rangers. Lay it! |
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08-13-23 | Rockies v. Dodgers -1.5 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
#956 ASA PLAY ON 8* Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs (-160) OR -2.5 runs (-100) over Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET - As we noted here yesterday, the Dodgers are heating up again and delivering a big run since the calendar turned the page to August. The Dodgers are a team that is once again stacked this season. Los Angeles has won 7 straight games and 11 of 12 and 57 of the Dodgers 70 wins this season have come by a multi-run margin. In fact, 8 of last 11 wins and 20 of last 27 victories for LA have come by a margin of at least 3 runs. That is why one can consider laying the 2.5 runs and no juice on the special run line available for this game as Colorado is a massive underdog with good reason. The Rockies are the only team in the N.L. this season that has less than 24 road wins on the year. Not only is Colorado 20-42 on the road this season, the Rockies have lost 12 of their last 17 games and 57 of the 72 Colorado defeats have come by a multi-run margin this season. 8 of the Rockies last 10 losses have been by at least a 3-run margin. Now a Rockies lineup that struggles away from home has to face Julio Urias. Though the lefty has struggled on the road this season, he is 6-1 with a 2.22 ERA in his home starts this year! Urias has held hitters to a .200 batting average at home this season after holding the opposition to a .183 batting average in outings at Dodger Stadium the prior season. Colorado has been held to 2 or less runs in 6 of their last 8 games on this road trip. The Dodgers have scored an average of 6.8 runs per game in the 11 wins in their current run of 11-1 last 12 games! The Rockies are expected to start Kyle Freeland here. He is 1-8 with a 5.24 ERA on the road this season. Freeland has been rocked in his starts since early July as he has allowed 40 hits in 29 innings! Also, Colorado's bullpen is one of the worst in the majors for team ERA and WHIP. As you can see above, all the key edges are with the home team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs (-160) OR 2.5 runs (-100) in afternoon action Sunday. Because not everyone has option of the -2.5 we are releasing this play here on this site as officially a play at -1.5 runs and laying the heavier juice. We mention the other option for those of you who have that option available and wish to consider it. |
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08-12-23 | Rockies v. Dodgers -1.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show | |
#910 ASA PLAY ON 8* Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs (-135) over Colorado Rockies, Saturday at 9:10 PM ET - The Dodgers are heating up again and delivering a big run since the calendar turned the page to August. The Dodgers are a team that is once again stacked this season. Los Angeles has won 6 straight games and 10 of 11 and 56 of the Dodgers 69 wins this season were by a multi-run margin. The Rockies are the only team in the N.L. this season that has less than 24 road wins on the year. Not only is Colorado 20-41 on the road this season, the Rockies have lost 11 of their last 16 games and 56 of the 71 Colorado defeats were by a multi-run margin this season. Now a Rockies lineup that struggles away from home has to face Tony Gonsolin. Though he is off a tough outing in his most recent start, he had allowed only 16 hits in 20 innings over his last 4 starts leading into that one. Gonsolin is a combined 33-10 with a 3.00 ERA in his career and has held hitters to a .192 batting average in his career. Colorado has been held to 2 or less runs in 5 of their last 7 games on this road trip. The Dodgers have scored an average of 7 runs per game in the 10 wins in their current run of 10-1 last 11 games! The Rockies are expected to start Peter Lambert here. He is 5-10 with a 6.80 ERA at the MLB level in his career. Lambert has been rocked in both of his August starts and Colorado's bullpen is one of the worst in the majors for team ERA and WHIP. As you can see above, all the key edges are with the home team in this one and we are grabbing them on the run line. Blowout alert! Bet the Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 runs in late night action Saturday. |
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08-11-23 | Brewers -1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 27 m | Show |
#975 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Chicago White Sox, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - The Brewers set to win huge in this one with a massive pitching edge. The White Sox will have to contend with Milwaukee’s ace Corbin Burnes and this will likely make for a night of misery for Chicago at the plate while the Brewers should enjoy facing a pitcher that continues to struggle with command. Michael Kopech is walking far too many batters, not getting enough strikeouts, and the lack of command can lead to mistake pitches at the most inopportune times. Unlike Kopech, the Brewers Burnes has been top notch this season and also just delivered an absolutely phenomenal month of July! Burnes has allowed just 10 earned runs on only 17 hits while striking out 52 in the 45 innings over his 7 starts since the end of June. A superb stretch like this for Burnes should not come as a surprise as he led the N.L. in strike outs last season! Kopech, in 34 innings since mid-June, has walked 34 batters - yes one walk per inning for the past two months of work! He is lucky the damage has not been even worse but indeed he has allowed 10 earned runs in 14 innings over his last 3 home starts and Kopech is likely to get hammered again here. The Brewers have scored 5.6 runs a game in last 13 games. The White Sox are off a 9-2 win but this followed a 3-6 stretch in which Chicago scored an average of only 2.7 runs scored per game. 50 of 69 White Sox losses have been by at least a 2-run margin this year and Milwaukee has allowed an average of just 2 runs per game in their last 7 road wins. They again shutdown the opposition as Burnes comes up huge here and the Brewers also hold the bullpen edge with ERA ranked 10th compared to White Sox ERA ranked 24th on the season. This game has road blowout written all over it. We like the Brewers on the run line big in this one.
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08-10-23 | Cardinals v. Rays -1.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 9 m | Show | |
#916 ASA PLAY ON 8* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over St Louis Cardinals, Thursday at 6:40 PM ET - Taking a look at the projected starters here, the Cardinals are likely handing the ball to Matthew Liberatore for this one. He is having a very rough season and is winless with an 11.48 ERA in his 4 road starts this season. As for the Rays, they are expected to start Zack Littell in this one. He is coming off a very strong start and has allowed just 2 earned runs in 11 innings over his last two starts. The Cardinals got the upset win yesterday but St Louis is just 27-45 in night games this season and only 31-45 against teams with a winning record. The Rays play in the tough AL East but are having a rock solid season and they have dominated lesser teams. Tampa Bay is 31-13 against teams with a losing record this season! Also, the Rays are 38-20 in home games and a stellar 14-6 against left-handed starters. Coming off a loss, this is a great spot to back the Rays. The edges in home field and pitching (including bullpen) go to TB here. Also, the Cardinals had lost 12 of 17 games before the win yesterday and they have not won B2B games since mid-July. We are getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one for a comeback price in the +115 range with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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08-08-23 | Rockies v. Brewers -1.5 | 7-3 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 20 m | Show | |
#910 ASA PLAY ON 8* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Colorado Rockies, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Brewers to roll to another big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Milwaukee is expected to send Wade Miley to the mound to start this one. Miley is 3-1 with a 2.41 ERA in evening games this season and opponents are hitting just .226 against him in those 7 starts. As for Colorado, Kyle Freeland will be the likely starter for the Rockies here. He is 1-8 with a 5.33 ERA in his road starts this season and opponents hitting .299 against him in those outings. In evening action, Freeland has a 6.04 ERA and opponents are hitting .307 against him. Also, the Rockies bullpen has a 4.93 team ERA this season to rank near the bottom of the majors! The Brewers bullpen ERA ranks them 10th in the majors and their 1.24 WHIP ranks them tied with two other teams for a solid 7th in the majors! We have had some solid success this season fading bad teams in the right situations and this looks like another one as Colorado has been dreadful on the road again this season including losses in 17 of their last 23. Overall, the Rockies are 19-38 this season in road games and they are 20-42 this season against teams with a winning record. Also, 55 of the Rockies 68 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin. The home team has won all 4 meetings between these teams this season and the home team is 14-4 in the last 18 games between these teams since the start of the 2021 season! All the edges point to the home team (won 12-1 yesterday) and another big-margin win here and we are getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a price in the -105 money range with the Brewers. Lay it! |
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08-07-23 | Rangers -1.5 v. A's | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show | |
#971 ASA PLAY ON 8* Texas Rangers -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Oakland A's, Monday at 9:40 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Rangers to roll to a big road win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Texas is expected to send Dane Dunning to start this one. Dunning is 6-1 with a 2.60 ERA in evening games this season and opponents are hitting just .201 against him in those 16 outings (10 starts). As for Oakland, Ken Waldichuk will be the likely starter for the A's here. He is 2-7 with a 6.52 ERA this season and opponents hitting .287 against him. Also, the Athletics bullpen has a 5.53 team ERA this season to rank at the bottom of the majors! The Rangers bullpen does have an unimpressive ERA but there has been some misfortune with that as their 1.24 WHIP ranks a solid 8th in the majors! We love the fact that Oakland enters this game off B2B wins. The reason is because that strongly puts the odds in our favor that this will be a loss here! Note that the Athletics and Royals are two of the worst teams in the majors this season. They have the two worst records and it is because they can not sustain winning streaks. KC recently had a shocking 7-game winning streak and it is the only time this entire season that they have won more than 2 straight games! Likewise, early this season the A's had a 7-game winning streak and it is the one and only time Oakland has won more than 2 straight games this entire season! We have had some solid success this season fading bad teams in the right situations and this looks like another one as Oakland again fails in a situation when off rare B2B wins. Also, 58 of the Athletics 80 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin. The Rangers have won 6 straight games and have gone 33-18 against teams with a losing record this season. The Athletics are 5-26 when facing teams from their division this season. All the edges point to the road team and a big-margin win here and the Rangers 66 wins this season have featured 58 of the 66 by a multi-run margin! Looking for a road blowout and we think we're getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a price in the -125 money range with the Rangers. Lay it! |
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08-06-23 | Mets v. Orioles -1.5 | 0-2 | Win | 120 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
#924 ASA PLAY ON 8* Baltimore Orioles -1.5 on the Run Line (+120) over New York Mets, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET - We will talk about the starting pitchers in a moment but select action on the pitchers when placing this bet as this is a play for us regardless of the starting pitchers. The Orioles have the #4 bullpen in MLB thus far with a 30-14 record and 3.59 ERA. The Mets are one of the weaker bullpens in MLB with a 16-23 record and 4.30 ERA. New York is 24-37 in road games this season! The Mets have lost 5 straight games and been defeated in 8 of last 9 on the road. Baltimore is 23-7 in games against teams with a losing record this season and also enters this game having won 20 of 27 games dating back to early July. The Orioles do have a fair number of 1-run wins (29%) this season but this does not look like one of them. This looks like a home blowout as this one is a mismatch. Note too that the Mets 60 losses this season have included 43 by at least a 2-run margin! As for the pitching match-up here, Kyle Bradish has been solid this season and this is particularly true at home where he has a 2.39 ERA this season and has held opponents to a .202 batting average! The Orioles hurler has allowed just 6 earned runs in 46 and 2/3 innings over his last 7 home starts! Bradish has had only one bad home start this season and that was way back in April! The Mets counter with Jose Quintana and he has only made 3 starts so far and has been hit at a .281 clip in those outings. Orioles enter this game with wins in 25 of 37 games against left-handed starters this season. Each of the last 6 Orioles wins have been victories by 2 or more runs. This further adds to support for the run line here. As for New York, their overall struggles and road struggles continue after the fire sale that further dampened team morale as they were in sell mode come the trade deadline. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +120 money range with the Orioles. Lay it! |
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08-05-23 | Giants -1.5 v. A's | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
#977 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Francisco Giants -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Oakland Athletics, Saturday at 7:07 PM ET - Oakland enters this game 30-80 and with 58 of their 80 losses by 2 or more runs. Incredibly, the A's enter this game just 19-67 when facing teams with a winning record this season and here they face a tough test as the Giants are 12 games over .500 on the season. The Giants are 7-2 last 9 games and San Francisco certainly holds an edge in the pitching department here. Ross Stripling is likely to draw this start. The A's have only one batter that has ever had a hit against Stripling so their experience against him is limited to say the least. Additionally, Stripling has been better than his full season numbers show. Since late June, Stripling has allowed 12 earned runs in 30 innings. With Oakland struggling so badly and also having little experience against him, Stripling should have a solid outing here. The Athletics are expected to start Paul Blackburn here and he is coming off an ugly July in which he compiled a 6.26 ERA and opponents hit .340 against him in his 5 outings (4 starts). Also, Oakland is dead last in the majors for bullpens with a 5.57 ERA. The Giants bullpen ERA of 3.58 ranks them TOPS in the National League. In other words, a huge overall pitching edge for a much stronger team and we get some line value here with San Francisco being on the road. Based on all of the above edges we like SF here with action on the pitchers and feel the way this one sets up is just a complete mismatch. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one as one could easily argue that the price in the -105 money range with the Giants should be much higher. Lay it! |
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07-31-23 | Brewers -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
#903 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Washington Nationals, Monday at 7:05 PM ET - There is going to be false market perception here in the betting markets because the Brewers just got swept by the Braves in Atlanta. The Braves are having a fantastic season and now Milwaukee goes from facing one of the best teams in the majors to facing one of the majors' worst. The Brewers are now in DC for this series and the Nationals have the worst home record in the N.L. with a 20-33 mark on the season. Also, against teams with a winning record this season, Washington is 25-42. The Brewers, prior to the series with Atlanta, had won 11 of 14 road games. Washington just lost 3 of 4 games and scored a total of only 4 runs in the 3 losses! Facing Milwaukee’s ace Burnes will likely make for another night of misery for the Nationals at the plate while the Brewers should quickly break out of their slump tonight in this early evening match-up. Burnes has been top notch this season and is having an absolutely phenomenal month of July! Burnes has allowed just 6 earned runs on only 11 hits while striking out 42 in the 33 innings over his 5 starts this month. A superb stretch like this for Burnes should not come as a surprise as he led the N.L. in strike outs last season! Also, we are going action on pitchers here because the Nationals are expected to start Jake Irvin (6.32 ERA since All-Star break) so this is also a play against situation the way we see it. Irvin is a rookie and still going through some growing pains at the MLB level and this comes as no surprise given his minor league stats either. This season he has had a 5.64 ERA at the AAA level and last year he was 0-4 with a 4.79 ERA at the AA level. 45 of 62 Nats losses have been by at least a 2-run margin this year and Milwaukee has allowed an average of just 1.5 runs per game in their last 6 road wins. They again shutdown the opposition and their bats should flourish against Irvin and a Nationals bullpen that is dead last in the N.L. with a 5.40 ERA this season. This game has road blowout written all over it. We like the Brewers on the run line in this one. |
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07-29-23 | Twins -1.5 v. Royals | Top | 7-10 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 57 m | Show |
#913 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Kansas City Royals, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - The Royals continue - along with the Athletics - to be one of the two worst teams in baseball. Now off a rare win yesterday, Kansas City is in the perfect spot to be faded. KC got the walk-off grand slam in the bottom of the 10th and now will likely be flat today after the big celebratory win in dramatic fashion last night. The Royals just do not win back to back games very often. Indeed, it has been a dreadful season for Kansas City and they have gone 2-14 the last 16 times they were off a win! Dating back to mid-May, the Royals have won B2B games just TWICE! Incredibly, the longest winning streak for KC is just 2 games this entire season! The Twins enter this game off 3 straight losses and that certainly is noteworthy here. That's because Minnesota has only lost more than 3 in a row a single time this entire season! The Twins, when entering a game on a losing streak of exactly 3 games, have won that 4th game all but one single time this season! Minnesota's record in this situation is 7-1 so you have a fantastic play on situation for the Twins and a solid play against situation for the Royals. This is all before talking about the pitchers which is also a huge edge for Minny here. Bailey Ober gets the call in this one and he has been rock solid over his last 5 starts and has a 2.16 ERA in the month of July. Ober was strong in his only start against KC this season. The Royals Jordan Lyles, on the other hand, got rocked by the Twins in his most recent start against them this season. Also, Lyles allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings in his start against the Yankees Sunday. Lyles is 1-12 with a 6.19 ERA this season! Lyles is 0-6 at home and 0-5 in night games this season. The Royals are 18-56 against teams with a winning record this season. The Twins are 24-12 against teams with a losing record this season. 40 of 54 Minnesota wins by at least a 2-run margin this season. 62 of 75 Royals losses by a multi-run margin this season. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a low price in the -115 money range with the Twins. Lay it! |
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07-24-23 | Pirates v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -125 | 18 h 52 m | Show |
#958 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego Padres -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Monday at 9:40 PM ET - The Pirates have slumped badly after that miracle early season start they had. It is hard to believe now but, at one point early this season, Pittsburgh was 20-8. Now, from the month of May onward it has been an entirely different story. The Pirates enter this game on a run of 23-48. Also, Pittsburgh's 56 losses have included 47 by at least a 2-run margin. The Padres are playing their first home game since the All-Star break. Though San Diego is off a loss yesterday, this followed wins in 4 of last 5 games. Also, the Padres have won 5 of last 6 home games. 42 of San Diego's 48 wins have been by a multiple run margin. Given these facts, if you like the Padres to win this game you can see why we have excellent value at the -1.5 runs here as 84% of Pirates losses and 88% of Padres wins by at least a 2-run margin this season. The pitching helps the cause here too as Quinn Priester is making just his 2nd MLB start. His first outing last week saw him get crushed for 7 earned runs in 5 innings. Priester will prove to be no match for the Padres Yu Darvish. The veteran right-hander tends to be very strong at home but he had rare struggles in his last 2 starts at home. Now, entering this start off B2B strong road outings since the All-Star break, Darvish is ready to resume his typical home dominance. In his two starts entering this one, Darvish has allowed only 1 earned run on just 9 hits while striking out 16 in 12 innings! Here he should dominate a struggling Pirates lineup. The way this one sets up is just a complete mismatch. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one as one could easily make a case that the price in the -120 money range with the Padres should be much higher. Lay it! |
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07-23-23 | Astros -1.5 v. A's | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -132 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
#917 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-130) over Oakland Athletics, Sunday at 4:07 PM ET - Oakland enters this game 28-73 and with 53 of their 73 losses by 2 or more runs. Incredibly, and even including yesterday's rare upset win over the Astros, the A's enter this game just 5-25 against divisional foes this season and here they face a tough spot as the defending champs are looking to avoid a 2-2 series split. The odds certainly favor the Astros bouncing right back as Oakland is just 6-38 in day games this season. Truly incredible numbers that favor Houston to respond immediately off the upset loss here and knock off the A's. The Astros are 21-12 against divisional opponents this year and Houston holds a huge edge in the pitching department here. Additionally, the Astros are a red hot 10-4 last 14 games on the road! Hunter Brown is likely to draw this start. Brown has dominated the Athletics in both starts against them this season! Brown allowed just 3 earned runs only 9 hits while striking out 19 in the 13 innings over those two starts. Brown is off a tougher start at Colorado but he really settled in after a tough first inning and that was at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Brown has struck out 35 over his last 24 innings and can again dominate a weaker lineup that has struggled against him this season. The Athletics are expected to start Luis Medina and he is 0-3 with an 8.35 ERA in his 4 day game outings this season. He allowed 5 earned runs in 5.1 innings in his start against the Astros this season. Medina allowed 10 baserunners in that outing and also gave up 3 homers to Houston in that one! Also, Oakland is dead last in the majors for bullpens with a 5.57 ERA. The Astros bullpen ERA of 3.69 ranks them 5th in the majors. In other words, a huge overall pitching edge for a much stronger team and we get some line value here with Houston being on the road. The Astros won 6-4 Friday and that sent the Athletics to their 10th loss in 12 games. Now, after a rare Oakland win last night, the way this one sets up is just a complete mismatch. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one as one could easily argue that the price in the -130 money range with the Astros should be much higher. Lay it! |
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07-22-23 | Orioles v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Baltimore Orioles, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - Taking a look at the projected starters here, Grayson Rodriguez just recently returned from the minors because he had been sent down for a lengthy period in which he was struggling so badly. Rodriguez did not look much better in his return from the minors. Some pitchers just never quite cut it at the MLB level no matter the success they have in the minors. This is one rookie who might end up fitting that bill. Rodriguez has a 7.33 ERA in the majors this season in his 11 starts and opponents are hitting .311 against him. He allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his start last week which was his first start since being called up again. As for the Rays, they are expected to start a true ace in Shane McClanahan here and he had a dominating first start since coming back from a minor injury. He just pitched at Texas last week and that is a tough Rangers team and he dominated in that outing. This is not a huge surprise as he has dominated again all season long. McClanahan is 11-1 with a 2.56 ERA this season and he is coming off a stellar season last year for Tampa Bay too. With yesterday's 3-0 shutout win, the Rays are now 36-16 at home this season. The Orioles are having a strong season too and these clubs are battling it out at the top of the AL East division right now. However, the edges in home field and starting pitching both go to TB here. Also, 29 of the Orioles 38 losses this season have been by at least 2 runs. 47 of the Rays 61 wins this season have been by 2 or more runs. We are getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one for a comeback price in the +115 range with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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07-21-23 | Astros -1.5 v. A's | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
#917 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-140) over Oakland Athletics, Friday at 9:40 PM ET - Oakland enters this game 27-72 and with 52 of their 72 losses by 2 or more runs. Incredibly the A's enter this game just 4-24 against divisional foes this season and here they face a tough one as the defending champs are in town. The Astros are 20-11 against divisional opponents this year and 18-10 versus left-handed starters. This match-up is a battle of southpaws and Houston holds a huge edge in the pitching department here. Additionally, the Astros are a red hot 9-3 last 12 games on the road! Framber Valdez is likely to draw this start. Valdez has a 2.76 ERA this season and it is no fluke as he went 17-6 with a 2.82 ERA last season! Valdez has held opponents to a .227 batting average for the season and also has held opponents to a .227 batting average in his 6-year career. The Athletics are expected to start JP Sears and he has allowed 12 earned runs in 17 innings over his last 3 home starts. Also, Oakland is dead last in the majors for bullpens with a 5.64 ERA. The Astros bullpen ERA of 3.70 ranks them 7th in the majors. In other words, a huge overall pitching edge for a much stronger team and we get some line value here with Houston being on the road. The Astros won 3-1 last night and sent the Athletics to their 9th loss in 11 games. The way this one sets up is just a complete mismatch. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one as one could easily argue that the price in the -140 money range with the Astros should be even higher. Lay it! |
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07-20-23 | Diamondbacks v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 111 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
#952 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (+110) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Thursday at 12:20 PM ET - The Braves have now lost 4 straight games. The last time the Braves had a losing season was 2017 and, ironically, that is also the last time that Atlanta has had a losing streak of more than 4 games! In other words, it has been over 5 YEARS since Atlanta has had a losing streak of at least 5 GAMES! The Braves are 33-20 this season when facing teams that have a winning record at the time of the match-up. Conversely, the Diamondbacks are 26-27 this season against teams with a winning record. Also, Arizona is just 13-14 against teams from the NL East while the Braves are a fantastic 40-16 against all NL teams this season! In terms of the pitching edge here, the Braves Spencer Strider is 11-3 with a 3.66 ERA this season. The Diamondbacks Zac Gallen has equally impressive overall numbers but there is one key factor about his numbers. Gallen has been Jekyll and Hyde in terms of his road versus home performances. This season on the road Gallen is 2-4 with a 5.11 ERA. Atlanta will respond here as their bullpen is still ranked #1 in NL and #3 in majors while the Dbacks ERA ranks their bullpen 19th in the majors. Atlanta was on a 36-14 (.720) run their last 50 games prior to this rare 0-4 stretch. 26 of last 31 Braves wins have come by at least a 2-run margin so we have no hesitation in laying the 1.5 runs. The Diamondbacks have lost 12 of 20 games and 8 of last 9 losses have been by at least 2 runs. Considering all this trending and situational advantage and the home field edge and the fact Atlanta has the #1 bullpen in the NL while Arizona ranks in the middle of the pack, you can see why we are expecting a home blowout here. The hosts should roll big in this one. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a price in the +110 comeback range with the Braves. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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07-19-23 | Diamondbacks v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
#908 ASA PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Wednesday at 7:20 PM ET - It is hard to believe that the team with the best record in baseball scored 13 runs and yet still lost yesterday. That was these Braves and we had them right here as they blew leads of 13-12 and 11-8 in the eventual 16-13 defeat. We look for Atlanta to immediately respond today on Wednesday. The Braves are 33-19 on the season when facing teams that have a winning record at the time of the match-up. Conversely, the Diamondbacks are 25-27 this season against teams with a winning record. Also, Arizona is just 12-14 against teams from the NL East while the Braves are a fantastic 40-15 against all NL teams this season! Charlie Morton is 5-0 in his last 5 starts and he has been delivering a fantastic July with a 3-0 record and a 0.47 ERA so far this month for Atlanta. The expected Diamondbacks starter, Ryne Nelson, has been at the other end of the spectrum of late with Arizona losing 4 of his last 6 starts. Nelson has allowed 18 earned runs on 40 hits in 32 innings over his last 6 starts. The Braves are off 3 straight losses and haven't lost 4 straight games since mid-May! Atlanta will respond here as their bullpen is still ranked #1 in NL and #3 in majors while the Dbacks ERA ranks their bullpen 19th in the majors. Atlanta was on a 36-14 (.720) run their last 50 games leading into this rare 0-3 stretch. 26 of last 31 Braves wins have come by at least a 2-run margin so we have no hesitation in laying the 1.5 runs. The Diamondbacks have lost 12 of 19 games and 8 of last 9 losses have been by at least 2 runs. Considering all this trending and situational advantage and the home field edge and the fact Atlanta has the #1 bullpen in the NL while Arizona ranks in the middle of the pack, you can see why we are expecting a home blowout here. The hosts should roll big in this one. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a price in the -110 money range with the Braves. Lay it! |
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07-18-23 | Diamondbacks v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 16-13 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
#956 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday at 7:20 PM ET - Entering this series, the Braves are 33-18 on the season when facing teams that have a winning record at the time of the match-up. Conversely, the Diamondbacks are 22-26 this season against teams with a winning record. Also, Arizona is just 11-14 against teams from the NL East while the Braves are a fantastic 40-14 against all NL teams this season! The Diamondbacks are in for a tough test here from the team with the top record in the NL as Elder is likely to draw this start. Bryce Elder has a 2.97 ERA so far this season and he has made 10 night game starts already on the season and is undefeated with a 4-0 record in those match-ups. The expected Diamondbacks starter, Zach Davies, is 1-5 on the season. He has a 6.37 ERA on the season and now has a combined 9-22 record over the 2021/22/23 seasons! The Braves are off B2B losses and haven't lost 3 straight games since mid-May! Atlanta will respond here and Atlanta was on a 36-14 (.720) run their last 50 games leading into this rare 0-2 stretch. 26 of last 31 Braves wins have come by at least a 2-run margin so we have no hesitation in laying the 1.5 runs. The Diamondbacks have lost 12 of 18 games and 8 of last 9 losses have been by at least 2 runs. Considering all this trending and situational advantage and the home field edge and the fact Atlanta has the #1 bullpen in the NL while Arizona ranks in the middle of the pack, you can see why we are expecting a home blowout here. We also like the fact Elder's last start was a rare bad one and now he will bounce back against an Arizona team whose lineup could struggle as they have never faced him. The Braves, on the other hand, have 10 hitters with experience against Davies. 7 of those guys have at least 4 at bats against him and all 7 of those have at least 1 RBI with a total of 15 RBIs in 70 at bats combined. That is a great ratio as it equates to a hitter having 105 RBIs in a 490 at-bat season. The hosts should roll big in this one. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a price in the -115 money range with the Braves. Lay it! |
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07-16-23 | Twins -1.5 v. A's | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
#965 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Oakland Athletics, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET - The A's continue - along with the Royals - to be one of the two worst teams in baseball. Oakland got hammered 10-7 by Minnesota yesterday and the A's tough season continues. 7 of the 9 starters in the lineup that Oakland used in yesterday's game have batting averages of .225 or less on the season! Minnesota, on the other hand, has a team slugging percentage of .403 on the season and that is 48 points higher than the Athletics slugging percentage on the season. That is just one example of the disparity between these two teams and the Twins have a pitching edge here too. Minnesota's Joe Ryan is 5-3 with a 2.95 ERA in day games this season and also holding hitters to .195 batting average in day games this season. This afternoon the A's are expected to send JP Sears to the mound. The lefty has pitched a little better of late but has a 1-6 record on the season plus has allowed at least 4 earned runs in each of his last two home starts! Oakland is 14-42 against teams with a winning record this season. Minnesota has won both the first two games of this series and is looking to move to 8-4 against AL West teams this season with another win here. 37 of the Twins 47 wins this season have been by 2 or more runs. The Athletics are 5-37 in day games and 54 of their 69 losses this season have been by 2 or more runs. Another edge is that the Minnesota bullpen is strong and ranks in the top 8 teams in the league while the Athletics bullpen is dead last for team ERA in the majors. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a low price in the -115 money range with the Twins. Lay it! |
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07-09-23 | Royals v. Guardians -1.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -111 | 4 h 57 m | Show |
#914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Guardians -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Kansas City Royals, Saturday at 1:40 PM ET - The Royals continue - along with the Athletics - to be one of the two worst teams in baseball. Cleveland rolled 10-6 yesterday and piled up 18 hits. Kansas City is 12-45 this season against teams with a winning record. KC has lost 6 straight games and 10 of 13. The Royals are known for getting blown out and 15 of last 16 losses have been by 2+ runs. Cleveland has won 13 of 19 games. In terms of the pitching match-up here, Shane Bieber dominated the Royals earlier this season and has allowed a total of only 2 earned runs the last 4 starts he has made against KC! The Royals get Ryan Yarbrough back for this one most likely. The southpaw started his MLB career with some solid numbers the first two years but has since gone 14-23 and his combined ERA 2021-23 is a 5.03 ERA and he is on pace for his 3rd losing season the last 4. Remember that Yarbrough has missed significant time due to taking a line drive to the head. He suffered multiple fractures from that and his first start back could be a little rough. Either way, we like the home team here without regard to the starting pitchers. Cleveland is hotter and stronger than the ice cold Royals and the Guardians bullpen ERA is 3.11 and ranks 2nd in the majors while the Royals 5.14 ERA ranks their bullpen 2nd to LAST in the majors. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a low price in the -115 money range with the Guardians. Lay it!
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07-08-23 | A's v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Red Sox -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Oakland Athletics, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - The A's continue - along with the Royals - to be one of the two worst teams in baseball. Oakland got hammered 7-3 by Boston yesterday and the A's tough season continues. 7 of the 11 batters that Oakland used in yesterday's game have batting averages of .208 or less on the season! Boston, on the other hand, had hitters in their lineup from leadoff through the #5 spot that all are hitting better than .250 on the season. That is just one example of the disparity between these two teams and the Red Sox have a pitching edge here too. James Paxton is coming off a fantastic June in which he went undefeated in his 5 starts and produced a 1.74 ERA. The Boston southpaw also has a 1.69 ERA in his 3 home starts this season and was solid in his only day game start this season. This afternoon the A's are expected to send Paul Blackburn to the mound. The righty has a 5.06 ERA in road starts and a 4.98 ERA in day game starts. Opponents hit .282 against Blackburn last month and he began July by getting rocked for 5 earned runs in 5 innings. Oakland is 17-55 against teams with a winning record this season. Boston is on a 3-game winning streak and 34 of their 46 wins this season have been by 2 or more runs. The Athletics are 5-34 in day games and 48 of their 65 losses this season have been by 2 or more runs. Another edge is Boston bullpen is respectable and ranks in the middle of the pack while the Athletics bullpen is dead last for team ERA in the majors. Also, Boston is one of the top home hitting teams in the league while Oakland is one of the worst road hitting teams in the majors. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a low price in the -115 money range with the Red Sox. Lay it!
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07-06-23 | Royals v. Guardians -1.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Guardians -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Kansas City Royals, Thursday at 7:10 PM ET - The Royals dropped to 25-62 with their 5-0 shutout loss at Minnesota last night. Keep in mind, KC was facing a Twins hurler (Pedro Lopez) last night that had given up at least 4 earned runs in 5 of last 7 home starts! If they could not scratch anything off him they are certainly unlikely to have success against a Guardians hurler that is in strong current form. Tanner Bibee has a 2.38 ERA at home and opponents have hit just .195 against him in his 6 home starts this season. Bibee should dominate here and the Guardians also should pound Jordan Lyles. He is off his first win of the season. Lyles allowed 4 earned runs in the start but finally got a win after KC was 0-15 in his first 15 starts this season! We have no hesitation here in fading a guy that, when on the mound, the Royals have gone 1-15 this season. Lyles has allowed 17 earned runs in 25 innings over his last 4 starts. In May he went 0-4 with an 8.89 ERA. In April, his final 5 starts saw Lyles allow 23 earned runs in 30 innings. Consistency matters and, in this case, Lyles has struggled consistently this season without a doubt. Even if he is not the starter here and even if Bibee (so strong at home) does not go, we still like the better team at home to win this game by at least 2 runs. 12 of the last 13 KC losses have been by at least 2 runs! Cleveland is off a tough series with Atlanta and just got blasted by the Braves 8 to 1 but they are 17-7 this season when off a loss in which they were held to 2 or less runs. In terms of bullpen ERA, Guardians are 2nd in MLB and Royals are 29th in MLB. Blowout likely here. Rain expected, particularly early in the day in Cleveland, but it should clear up well enough by the time this game rolls around. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a low price in the -105 money range with the Guardians. Lay it! |
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07-02-23 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
#964 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the Run Line (+105) over Boston Red Sox, Sunday at 1:37 PM ET - The Blue Jays lost a tight one yesterday to the Red Sox and that was on Canada Day too so it was a particularly tough home loss for Toronto. We look for a big bounce back effort from the Jays here as a result. We like this play regardless of the starting pitchers but the Blue Jays do have a strong pitching edge here as a well. Kevin Gausman has made 17 starts this season and only 3 of them have been tough. In his other 14 starts he has allowed only 14 earned runs in 92 innings! That equates to a minuscule 1.37 ERA in 14 of his 17 starts this season. Gausman can bring it and has a 2.48 ERA at home this season plus is 4-1 with a 1.73 ERA in day games this season. The Red Sox are going with Garrett Whitlock here and he has allowed 10 earned runs in 11.2 innings spanning his last two starts. Boston is at .500 on the season and Toronto is 19-6 this season against teams that do not have a winning record. The Red Sox are unlikely to get the sweep at Toronto and, prior to these B2B wins, had lost 7 of 8 games. Before these B2B losses, Toronto had won 6 of 8 games. We're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a comeback price in the +105 money range with the Blue Jays. Lay it! |
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07-01-23 | White Sox -1.5 v. A's | 6-7 | Loss | -145 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
#917 ASA PLAY ON 8* Chicago White Sox -1.5 on the Run Line (-140) over Oakland Athletics, Saturday at 4:07 PM ET - Oakland entered this series 21-62 and with 46 of their 62 losses by 2 or more runs. Incredibly the A's entered this series just 16-45 against right-handed starters and here they are expected to face a good one as Dylan Cease is likely to draw this start. Cease is coming off a fantastic June in which he had a 2.20 ERA for the month and and it is no fluke as he held opponents to a .192 batting average for the month. The Athletics were expected to start James Karpielian but he landed on the DL with a shoulder issue. That means this is likely going to be a bullpen game for the A's and Oakland is dead last in the majors for bullpens with a 5.75 ERA. In other words, a huge edge for a red hot Cease and the much stronger team being on the road. The A's actually won last night's game but have only had 3 winning streaks this season and so the odds of winning B2B games is between slim and none. When off a standalone win this season, the A's have gone 3-10 this year. You have one of the worst teams in MLB off a rare win and against a solid pitcher. With A's likely going with a bullpen game here, this is just a complete mismatch. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a price in the -140 money range with the White Sox. Lay it! |
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06-28-23 | Nationals v. Mariners -1.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -119 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
#970 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Washington Nationals, Wednesday at 4:10 PM ET - We were watching this line closely all morning to see where it was shaping up to hold. The fact we can get a reasonable -125 price here on a team likely to win a blowout is going to get us in play on this one! The Nationals are having a very rough season and have lost 48 of 79 games this season and that includes having lost 12 of 16 when they are entering a game off a win. Here they are matched up with a Mariners team that has been particularly tough against bad teams. When facing teams that do not have a winning record, they have won 24 of 36 games. After Washington won yesterday's game 7-4 in 11 innings, here you have a very strong play on situation and a very strong play against situation. Nice odds but that is based on wins and losses. What about wins and losses by 2+ runs? Well, the key here is that the Mariners have seen 30 of their 38 wins come by at least a 2-run margin. The Nats have seen 34 of their 48 losses come by at least at 2-run margin. Look for a big blowout here as this is a mismatch and that is before even talking about the pitchers. The Mariners are expected to start Logan Gilbert here and he has been dominating regularly the past two months. He has only 2 tougher starts since May 1st and the other 8 outings have seen him allow a total of only 15 earned runs in 51.2 innings! The Nationals are likely starting Patrick Corbin here and he is 21-51 the last 4 years with consistently high ERA numbers. This season his ERA is 6.34 in road games. Also, the Washington bullpen is dead last in the National League this season based on ERA while the Mariners bullpen ranks as one of the best in the majors. As you can see, we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a -125 price with the Mariners. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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06-26-23 | Nationals v. Mariners -1.5 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
#962 ASA PLAY ON 8* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Washington Nationals, Monday at 9:40 PM ET - We were watching this line closely all morning to see where it was shaping up to hold. The fact we can get a reasonable -125 price here on a team likely to win a blowout is going to get us in play on this one! The Nationals are having a very rough season and have lost 47 of 77 games this season and that includes having lost 27 of 41 night games. Here they are matched up with a Mariners team that has been particularly tough against bad teams. When facing teams that did not have a winning record, they have won 23 of 34 games. So here you have a very strong play on situation and a very strong play against situation. Nice odds but that is based on wins and losses. What about wins and losses by 2+ runs? Well, the key here is that the Mariners have seen 29 of their 37 wins come by at least a 2-run margin. The Nats have seen 33 of their 47 losses come by at least at 2-run margin. Look for a big blowout here as this is a mismatch and that is before even talking about the pitchers. The Mariners are expected to start Luis Castillo here and he has been dominating at home this season. Castillo is 4-2 with a 2.03 ERA and holding opponents to a .169 batting average in his 9 starts in Seattle on the season. The Nationals are starting Trevor Williams here most likely and he is off a rare strong start after 4 straight starts in which he was hit quite hard. Also, the Washington bullpen is dead last in the National League this season based on ERA while the Mariners bullpen ranks as one of the best in the majors. As you can see, we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a -125 price with the Mariners. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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06-22-23 | Royals v. Rays -1.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -148 | 4 h 44 m | Show | |
#962 ASA PLAY ON 8* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (-155) over Kansas City Royals, Thursday at 6:40 PM ET - We were watching this line closely all morning to see where it was shaping up to hold. The fact we can get a reasonable -155 price here on a team likely to win a blowout is going to get us in play on this one! The Royals are having a very rough season and have lost 54 of 74 games this season and that includes having lost 32 of 40 games against teams with a winning record! Here they are matched up with one of the best teams in MLB and the Rays have been particularly tough at home where they have won 32 of 40 games. So here you have an 80% play on situation versus an 80% play against situation. Nice odds but that is based on wins and losses. What about wins and losses by 2+ runs? Well, the key here is that Tampa Bay has seen 75% of their wins (39 of 52) come by at least a 2-run margin. The Royals have seen 83% of their losses (45 of 54) come by at least at 2-run margin. Look for a big blowout here as this is a mismatch and that is before even talking about the pitchers. This is a case of hot versus not and now, how about those pitchers? The Rays are expected to start McClanahan here and he has been dominating this season. McClanahan is 11-1 with a 2.12 ERA and he is coming off a stellar season for Tampa Bay. Last year he held hitters under a .200 batting average and he had a strong 2.54 ERA on the season. The Royals are taking a bullpen approach to this game with Jose Cuas likely to get the start but only going to go about 1 inning as an opener. So what about the KC bullpen since we will be seeing plenty of it in this one? The Royals relief pitching is a combined 10-17 with a 4.82 ERA and the late inning pen has been bad too with 10 of 20 saves being blown. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one even at a -155 price with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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06-21-23 | A's v. Guardians -1.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 32 m | Show | |
#920 ASA PLAY ON 8* Cleveland Guardians -1.5 on the Run Line (+125) over Oakland Athletics, Wednesday at 7:10 PM ET - We will talk about the starting pitchers in a moment but select action on the pitchers when placing this bet as this is a solid play for us regardless of the starting pitchers. The Guardians have the #2 bullpen in MLB thus far based on opponents batting average with a .218 BAA. For bullpen ERA, Cleveland also ranks 2nd with a 2.98 ERA while the Athletics rank dead last at 30th with a 5.51 ERA. Oakland is on a 6-game losing streak. That included a tough beat yesterday for the league-worst Athletics. The manner of loss yesterday - blew 2-run lead in bottom of 7th and lost in 10th inning - was a 6th straight defeat and will be really tough to come back from. The Athletics are again in a major slump now and so a loss in that fashion is devastating in more ways than one. Note that Oakland's 56 losses this season have included 41 by at least a 2-run margin! The Guardians 34 wins have included 20 by at least a 2-run margin. So the odds here certainly favor that a Guardians win will be coming by a multi-run margin. Cleveland has won 11 of 17 games versus AL West opponents this season. As for the pitching match-up here, the Athletics Paul Blackburn has been hit hard in 2 of his last 3 starts and he is still settling in after his start to this season was delayed until late May! The Guardians counter with Gavin Williams and though this is his MLB debut, the rookie right-hander is highly touted for a reason. He has excelled at all levels of the minors and he has been piling up strikeouts. The A's 6-game losing streak appears destined to add another defeat today and, after some recent 1-run losses, don't be surprised when this one turns into another blowout defeat by a multi-run margin. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +125 money range with the Guardians. Lay it! |
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06-14-23 | Brewers v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 125 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
#966 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Milwaukee Brewers, Wednesday at 1:10 PM ET - We will talk about the starting pitchers in a moment but select action on the pitchers when placing this bet as this is a solid play for us regardless of the starting pitchers. The Twins have the #4 bullpen in MLB thus far based on opponents batting average with a .223 BAA. For bullpen ERA, Minnesota ranks 7th with a 3.50 ERA while the Brewers rank 22nd with a 4.29 ERA. Milwaukee is on a 5-game losing streak. That included an ugly series sweep at home at the hands of the league-worst Athletics. Then, the manner of loss yesterday in the Brewers 5th straight defeat will be really tough to come back from. Milwaukee led that game 5-3 going to bottom of the 9th but then allowed 4 runs including 2 on a walk-off homer that finished them off. The Brewers are in a major slump now and so a loss in that fashion is devastating in more ways than one. Note that Milwaukee's 33 losses this season have included 29 by at least a 2-run margin! The Twins 34 wins have included 27 by at least a 2-run margin. So the odds here certainly favor a Twins win coming by a multi-run margin. Minnesota has won 15 of 25 home games since late April. The Brewers have lost 13 of 20 road games over roughly the same time frame. As for the pitching match-up here, the Brewers Colin Rea has allowed 10 earned runs in 16 innings in his last 3 road starts! The Twins counter with Bailey Ober and he has a 2.61 ERA and has held opponents to a .200 batting average in his 9 starts this season. The Brewers 5-game losing streak appears destined to add another defeat today and 12 of the last 13 losses for Milwaukee have been by a multi-run margin. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +115 money range with the Twins. Lay it! |
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06-11-23 | Royals v. Orioles -1.5 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 112 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
#914 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baltimore Orioles -1.5 on the Run Line (+110) over Kansas City Royals, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET - We will talk about the starting pitchers in a moment but select action on the pitchers when placing this bet as this is a top play for us regardless of the starting pitchers. The Orioles have the #5 bullpen in MLB thus far with a 17-10 record and 3.34 ERA. The Royals are one of the worst bullpens in MLB with a 9-14 record and 4.86 ERA. Kansas City is an incredibly bad 8-32 in games against teams with a winning record this season! Baltimore is 21-9 in games against teams with a losing record this season. The Orioles do have a fair number of 1-run wins this season but this does not look like one of them. This looks like a home blowout as this one is a mismatch. Note too that the Royals 46 losses this season have included 39 by at least a 2-run margin! As for the pitching match-up here, Kyle Gibson has a 7-3 record and 3.87 ERA this season! The Orioles hurler has allowed just 6 earned runs in 24.2 innings over his last 4 starts! The Royals counter with opener Carlos Hernandez but Mike Mayers is expected to get the bulk of the work here. This is another reason we like action on the starting pitchers. Hernandez, the past two seasons, has an 0-8 mark and 6.29 ERA. As for Mayers, he has made only 4 appearances so far this season and he has struggled in 2 of his 3 road outings. The first one, walks were an issue and now in his most recent outing he got crushed at Miami. Orioles enter this game with wins in 13 of 18 games against Central Division opponents this season. Of last 25 wins, 20 of them have been victories by 2 or more runs. This further adds to support for the run line here. As for Kansas City, the Royals enter this one on a 5-game losing streak and have lost 23 of last 30 on the road. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +110 money range with the Orioles. Lay it! |
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06-06-23 | Royals v. Marlins -1.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 131 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
#968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami Marlins -1.5 on the Run Line (+130) over Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - With yesterday's 9 to 6 win the Marlins are entering this match-up on a 9-3 run over their past dozen games. This includes 4 straight wins. Also, 8 of the 9 wins have been by at least a 2-run margin! Kansas City certainly falls into an entirely different category as they enter this one 18-42 on the season and with 12 of their last 13 losses by 2 or more runs. The Royals enter this match-up having gone 6-27 in games against teams with a winning record this season! They are 5-11 against left-handed starters and face a tough one here as Jesus Luzardo expected to get the ball for Miami. Though he has a 4.05 ERA so far this season, he had a 3.32 ERA last season and is going to take advantage of facing a weaker foe here and he does have a 3.35 ERA at home this season. As for the expected Kansas City starter, Zack Greinke, he has been decent this season but is 0-10 the last two seasons combined in his road starts. Throughout his career, Greinke is known for struggling more on the road than at home and that has been the trend with him again this season. Also, going against Greinke here is the fact that it is hard to win when you pitch for a team like KC that struggles at the plate plus ranks just ahead of Oakland in terms of having a league-worst bullpen. You have one of the worst teams in MLB against a winning team that is starting to heat up. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and getting a solid comeback price in the +130 money range with the Marlins. Lay it! |
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06-04-23 | A's v. Marlins -1.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
#972 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Miami Marlins -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Oakland Athletics, Sunday at 1:40 PM ET - With yesterday's dominant 12 to 1 win the Marlins are entering this match-up on a 6-2 run over their past 8 games. Oakland certainly falls into an entirely different category as they enter this one 12-48 on the season and with 38 of their 48 losses by 2 or more runs. Incredibly the A's enter this afternoon match-up having gone a putrid 1-24 in day games this season! They are 8-34 against right-handed starters and face a tough one here as Sandy Alcantara expected to get the ball for Miami. Though he has a 4.93 ERA so far this season, he had a 2.28 ERA last season and is going to take advantage of facing a weaker foe here. As for the expected Athletics starter, Paul Blackburn, he is returning from injury. Though his first start went okay, he took 81 pitches to complete 4 innings and he did struggle in his rehab starts before making that first MLB appearance of this season. Also going against Blackburn here is that it is hard to win when you pitch for a team like Oakland that struggles at the plate plus has a league-worst bullpen. Oakland enters this game 4-13 in inter-league matchups. You have one of the worst teams in MLB against a winning team that is starting to heat up. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a price in the -105 money range with the Marlins. Lay it! |
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06-02-23 | Brewers -1.5 v. Reds | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
#951 ASA PLAY ON 8* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 5:10 PM ET - There is going to be false market perception here in the betting markets because the Brewers have been slumping with losses in 9 of last 14 games and the Reds actually have won 5 of 6 but the wins came on the road and Cincinnati is just 2-5 last 7 games at home. Facing Milwaukee’s ace Burnes will quickly bring the Reds back to reality here and the Brewers will break out of their slump tonight in this early evening match-up. Burnes has been top notch this season ever since working out the kinks in his first two starts of the season. Since that time, he has allowed just 16 earned runs in his last 9 starts. In his last 54 innings of work he has been excellent in striking out 53! The turnaround for Burnes should not come as a surprise as he led the N.L. in strike outs last season! Also, we are going action on pitchers here because the Reds are expected to start Brandon Williamson (5.02 ERA) but this is also a play against situation the way we see it as Cincinnati is 6-13 last 19 against the Brewers plus 13-24 against right-handed starters this season. As for Reds starter Williamson, he was 1-5 with 4.07 ERA at AAA level last season and 2-4 with a 6.62 ERA this season at the AAA level. He had some success in his MLB debut this season but has struggled in each of the two starts since and we look for the fade to continue for Williamson in this outing. 6 of last 7 Reds losses have been by at least a 2-run margin and 71% of Milwaukee wins this season have been by a multi-run margin. This game has road blowout written all over it. We like the Brewers on the run line in this one. |
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06-01-23 | Brewers v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 105 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
#912 ASA PLAY ON 8* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the Run Line (-100) over Milwaukee Brewers, Thursday at 1:07 PM ET - Kevin Gausman had two rough starts for the Blue Jays this season in which he allowed 15 earned runs in 8 innings. However, in his other 9 starts he has allowed a total of only 8 earned runs in 60 innings! Just one earned run allowed per start on average in the majority of his starts this season. As for the Brewers Freddy Peralta, he has been struggling in recent starts and, overall, is struggling on the road this season. Peralta is allowing opponents batting average of .300 on the road and has a 6.45 ERA in those road starts. The Brewers won yesterday's game 4 to 2 but entered yesterday's action having lost 17 of 27 games. The Blue Jays had won 14 of 23 home games this season prior to the Wednesday loss. 22 of 29 Toronto wins this season have been by a multiple run margin. 23 of 26 Brewers losses have been by at least a 2-run margin this season. The Blue Jays have had the better bullpen this season too plus Toronto is hitting .265 in home games this season ranking 7th in MLB while Brewers have a .359 slugging percentage in road games this season ranking 28th in MLB. Considering the information above, we think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and not having to lay any juice with the Blue Jays. Lay it!
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05-25-23 | A's v. Mariners -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
#970 ASA PLAY ON 8* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Oakland Athletics, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET - Now we get even more line value here as we fade a team on a 7 game losing streak. Oakland's JP Sears has some decent numbers but the Mariners Logan Gilbert has been even better and so now the price at -1.5 runs in the pick'em range means we have excellent value on the run line in this one. We have successfully gone to the "play against" well a handful of times already this season when it comes to the Athletics. That said, we have no hesitation in this spot again, and just like yesterday, will come right back and go against them again here as Oakland continues to be the worst team in baseball. The Mariners have struggled this season against teams with a winning record but have feasted against non-winning teams this season and have gone 18-7 against them! Oakland is 10-41 this season and simply consistently bad. They are 5-20 at home and 5-21 on the road this season. Yes, they consistently lose 80% of their games. Of course that is why they are a huge underdog here but we can get a reasonable price on the Mariners by playing Seattle at -1.5 on the run line in this one. The Mariners have won by 2 or more runs in 20 of their 25 wins this season. The A's have had 32 of 41 losses by at least a 2-run margin this season. This included, prior to Tuesday's 1-run loss, 14 of 15 losses by at least a 2-run margin of defeat for Oakland. The Athletics have a bullpen ERA of 6.57 which ranks dead last in the majors while Seattle's relief pitching has a 3.07 ERA for one of the best marks in the majors. We like the Mariners to win big here regardless of the starting pitchers. However, the expected starting pitching match-up does favor Seattle as well. The expected starter for Seattle is Gilbert. The starter slated for the Athletics is Sears. The Oakland left-hander has a 4.99 ERA and an 0-3 record so far this season. Sears has some good numbers versus Mariners but has only faced them once at Seattle and we expect the M's to be stronger against him here on their home field after seeing him at Oakland earlier this season. Gilbert was 13-6 with a 3.20 ERA last season and now this season he has been heating up with 29 strikeouts compared to just 16 hits allowed so far in the month of May. This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Mariners on the run line in this one and look for another big win just like Monday's and Wednesday's routs that sandwiched the tight 1-run win Tuesday (17-3 combined score in the two blowouts). |
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05-24-23 | A's v. Mariners -1.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
#924 ASA PLAY ON 8* Seattle Mariners -1.5 on the Run Line (-135) over Oakland Athletics, Wednesday at 9:40 PM ET - We have successfully gone to the "play against" well a handful of times already this season when it comes to the Athletics. That said, we have no hesitation in this spot and will come right back and go against them again here as Oakland continues to be the worst team in baseball. The Mariners have struggled this season against teams with a winning record but have feasted against non-winning teams this season and have gone 17-7 against them! Oakland is 10-40 this season and simply consistently bad. They are 5-20 at home and 5-20 on the road this season. Yes, they consistently lose 80% of their games. Of course that is why they are a huge underdog here but we can get a reasonable price on the Mariners by playing Seattle at -1.5 on the run line in this one. The Mariners have won by 2 or more runs in 19 of their 24 wins this season. The A's have had 31 of 40 losses by at least a 2-run margin this season. This includes, prior to last night's 1-run loss, 14 of last 15 losses by at least a 2-run margin of defeat for Oakland. The Athletics have a bullpen ERA of 6.53 which ranks dead last in the majors while Seattle's relief pitching has a 3.07 ERA for one of the best marks in the majors. We like the Mariners to win big here regardless of the starting pitchers. However, the expected starting pitching match-up does favor Seattle as well. The expected starter for Seattle is Miller. The starter slated for the Athletics is Waldichuk. The Oakland left-hander has a 6.85 ERA and just one win so far this season. Miller has made only 4 starts this season but has been fantastic with a 1.42 ERA and a .128 BAA. This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Mariners on the run line in this one and look for another big win just like Monday's (11-2 final) here.
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05-20-23 | A's v. Astros -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -140 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
#914 ASA PLAY ON 8* Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-140) over Oakland Athletics, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - We won with Houston in this spot yesterday and will come right back with them again here. The Astros have won 5 straight games and are hosting an Athletics team that has the worst record in the league. Not only that, the A's are an incredibly bad 1-18 in day games this season. Yes 18 of 19 afternoon games for the Athletics have seen them on the losing end. Oakland has a bullpen ERA of 6.56 which ranks dead last in the majors while Houston's relief pitching has a 3.07 ERA for one of the best marks in the majors. The A's are 10-36 on the season and we like the Astros to win big here regardless of the starting pitchers. However, the expected starting pitching match-up does favor Houston as well. The expected starter for Houston is Hunter Brown. The starter slated for the Athletics is JP Sears. The Oakland left-hander has a 5.27 ERA and is winless in his 8 starts this season. Brown had limited action last season but was great and now he has been working as a starter this season and has been rock solid. He is now 6-1 with a 2.63 ERA in his career and has allowed an average of just 2 earned runs in his 8 starts this season. He can step up here again at home in Houston and deliver a solid start versus a bad Oakland team whose .215 batting average versus right-handers is the worst in the American League. 20 of 25 Astros wins have been by at least a 2-run margin this season. 81% of Athletics losses have been by a multi-run margin as 29 of their 36 defeats have been by 2+ runs. Oakland has lost 10 of 12 games and each of the A's last 12 losses have been by 2+ runs. Houston has won 8 of 9 games including 5 in a row. This game has home blowout written all over it again. We like the Astros on the run line in this one and look for another big win just like yesterday's here. |
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05-19-23 | A's v. Astros -1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 10 m | Show | |
#962 ASA PLAY ON 8* Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Oakland Athletics, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - The Astros have won 4 straight games and are hosting an Athletics team that has the worst record in the league. Oakland has a bullpen ERA of 6.62 which ranks dead last in the majors while Houston's relief pitching has a 3.15 ERA for one of the best marks in the majors. The A's are 10-35 on the season and we like the Astros to win big here regardless of the starting pitchers. However, the expected starting pitching match-up does favor Houston as well. The expected starter for Houston is Brandon Bielak. The starter slated for the Athletics is Ken Waldichuk. The Oakland left-hander has a 7.02 ERA and opponents are hitting .310 against him in his 8 starts this season. Bielak has limited action both this season and last season but his lone home start this season was solid and 2 of his 3 appearances at home last season (all were long relief appearances) were solid. He can step up here again at home in Houston and deliver a solid start versus a bad Oakland team whose .214 batting average versus right-handers is the worst in the American League. 19 of 24 Astros wins have been by at least a 2-run margin this season. 80% of Athletics losses have been by a multi-run margin as 28 of their 35 defeats have been by 2+ runs. Oakland has lost 9 of 11 games and each of the A's last 11 losses have been by 2+ runs. Houston has won 7 of 8 games including 4 in a row. This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Astros on the run line in this one. |
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05-17-23 | Royals v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
#974 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* San Diego Padres -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Kansas City Royals, Wednesday at 4:10 PM ET - There is going to be false market perception here in the betting markets because the Padres have been slumping but they faced a tough road slate with 6 straight away games before this series started. As for the Royals, their 4 most recent wins (before yesterday's 5-4 victory over here at San Diego) came against bad teams - White Sox and Athletics. The White Sox and Oakland and Kansas City are 3 of the worst teams in the majors thus far this season. Facing San Diego's ace Yu Darvish will quickly bring KC back to reality here and the Padres will break out of their slump tonight. San Diego did win the first game of this series 4-0 and another big win should come here. Darvish ranked 7th in the N.L. in strike outs last season! He is piling up strikeouts again this season plus has allowed only 1 earned in 3 of his 4 home starts this season. We are going action on pitchers here because the Royals are expected to start Carlos Hernandez (5.05 career ERA) but he will be more of an opener as he has been working out of the bullpen again this season and is unlikely to go more than 3 innings here. That being said, KC may even use a different opener and then bring in Hernandez. Either way, expect plenty of Royals bullpen in this one and that is good news for the Padres lineup as the KC bullpen has a team ERA of 4.86 so far this season which ranks among the worst in MLB. Also, the Royals had lost 14 of last 18 road games before yesterday's rare win. Speaking of rare, the Royals have struggled to build any momentum this season with their longest winning streak being 2 games. Also, KC is 0-4 this year when off a 1-run win and they took yesterday's game by a 5-4 count. 26 of 31 Royals losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin and 85% of San Diego wins this season have been by a multi-run margin. This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Padres on the run line in this one. |
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05-12-23 | Royals v. Brewers -1.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
#928 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Kansas City Royals, Friday at 8 PM ET - There is going to be false market perception here in the betting markets because the Brewers have been slumping but they faced a tough slate while Royals actually have won 4 of 5 but the wins came against bad teams - White Sox and Athletics. The White Sox and Oakland and Kansas City are 3 of the worst teams in the majors thus far this season. Facing Milwaukee’s ace Burnes will quickly bring KC back to reality here and the Brewers will break out of their slump tonight. Burnes has been top notch this season ever since working out the kinks in his first two starts of the season. Since that time, his ERA is 2.08 and he’s allowed just 20 hits in 30.1 innings of work while striking out 26! The turnaround for Burnes should not come as a surprise as he led the N.L. in strike outs last season! Also, in his 2 starts vs Kansas City in his career, Burnes has pitched 12 innings, allowed 6 hits and struck out 18. We are going action on pitchers here because the Royals are expected to start Josh Taylor (6.55 ERA) but he could be more of an opener as he really has not been a starter much at any level in the minors nor at the MLB level. That being said, KC may even use a different opener and then bring in Taylor. Either way, expect plenty of Royals bullpen in this one and that is good news for the Brewers lineup as the KC bullpen has a team ERA of 5.11 so far this season which ranks among the worst in MLB. Remember we mentioned above that Kansas City's recent wins have come against weaker foes and that certainly is worth noting because Kansas City is a horrible 6-23 against teams with a winning record this season. Also, the Royals have lost 10 of last 14 road games and they were in action yesterday while the Brewers were resting courtesy of an off day yesterday. 23 of 27 Royals losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin and 70% of Milwaukee wins this season have been by a multi-run margin. This game has home blowout written all over it. We like the Brewers on the run line in this one. |
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05-08-23 | Rockies +1.5 v. Pirates | 0-2 | Loss | -133 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
#901 ASA PLAY ON 8* Run Line: Colorado Rockies +1.5 runs (-135) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Monday at 6:35 PM ET - The Pirates have lost 7 straight games and we are going to fade them here. We get line value with a reasonable price on the +1.5 runs on the run line as the Pirates have Mitch Keller on the mound. This has impacted the pricing of this game and certainly Keller is a solid starting pitcher. However, the key here is that the Rockies also have a strong starting pitcher on the mound with Kyle Freeland expected to get the ball here. Additionally, Colorado has won back to back games and they exploded at the plate in yesterday's win. Keller is 2-0 in home starts this season but he entered this season 3-17 in home starts in his career! As for Freeland, because he pitches his home starts in hitter-friendly Coors Field, he tends to have inflated ERA numbers overall. His road ERA numbers in recent seasons have been strong and this season he is pitching consistently well both home and away. We are aware of his minor neck issue but he still was just fine versus the Brewers in most recent start. He has been solid in 6 of his 7 starts this season and, ironically, the lone bad one was at home against these Pirates. Big difference between facing them on the road rather than at home and we expect he will get revenge in this start. The Rockies have won 6 of 7 games and the only loss was by a single run! Pittsburgh has lost 7 straight games and also, only 5 of their last 15 home games have been wins by a margin of at least 2 runs. Don't be surprised if the road team gets the upset over the home team that is mired in a slump but, if the Rockies do fall short, the run line should prove to be ample insurance. Bet the Colorado Rockies +1.5 runs on the run line. |
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05-04-23 | Orioles -1.5 v. Royals | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show | |
#909 ASA PLAY ON 8* Baltimore Orioles -1.5 on the Run Line (-105) over Kansas City Royals, Thursday at 2:10 PM ET - We will talk about the starting pitchers in a moment but select action on the pitchers when placing this bet as this is a strong play for us regardless of the starting pitchers. The Orioles have one of the top bullpens in MLB thus far with a 10-4 record and 2.99 ERA. The Royals are one of the worst bullpens in MLB with a 3-5 record and 5.30 ERA. Kansas City is an incredibly bad 2-13 in home games this season and just got one of those rare wins yesterday. Now, Royals off a win and are 0-5 last 5 times they were off a win. In fact, KC has had only one winning streak - and only a 2 game streak at that! - this season. The Orioles do have a fair number of 1-run wins this season but this does not look like one of them. This looks like a road rout as this one is a mismatch. Note too that the Royals 23 losses this season have included 20 by at least a 2-run margin! As for the pitching match-up here, Grayson Rodriguez has a 4.07 ERA this season and has not allowed any runs in 10 innings over his past two starts! The Orioles hurler has 34 strikeouts in his 23 innings this season. The Royals counter with Jordan Lyles and he is 0-5 with a 6.11 ERA. In his last two appearances at home, Lyles has allowed a total of 8 earned runs plus 2 homers in each start. Orioles enter this one with wins in 12 of 15 games. Of 10 road wins (since winning their season opener by a single run) 9 of them have been victories by 2 or more runs. This further adds to support for the run line here. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and only having to lay a very small price in the -105 money range with the Orioles. Lay it! |
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05-02-23 | Orioles -1.5 v. Royals | Top | 11-7 | Win | 110 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
#917 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baltimore Orioles -1.5 on the Run Line (+110) over Kansas City Royals, Tuesday at 7:40 PM ET - We will talk about the starting pitchers in a moment but select action on the pitchers when placing this bet as this is a top play for us regardless of the starting pitchers. The Orioles have the #1 bullpen in MLB thus far with a 10-4 record and 2.86 ERA. The Royals are one of the worst bullpens in MLB with a 3-5 record and 5.26 ERA. Kansas City is an incredibly bad 1-12 in home games this season! Baltimore is 12-3 in night games this season. The Orioles do have a fair number of 1-run wins this season but this does not look like one of them. This looks like a road rout as this one is a mismatch. Note too that the Royals 22 losses this season have included 19 by at least a 2-run margin! As for the pitching match-up here, Tyler Wells has a 2.79 ERA and a fantastic 0.72 WHIP! The Orioles hurler has had great command of his pitches with 23 strikeouts against just 3 walks and opponents are hitting just .176 against him this season. The Royals counter with Ryan Yarbrough but he had a 5.11 ERA two years ago. Then he followed that up with a 3-8 mark and 4.50 ERA last season. This season he is already a rough 0-3 with a 6.35 ERA! In his last two appearances at home, Yarbrough has allowed 6 earned runs in 4 innings. Orioles enter this series with wins in 11 of 13 games. Of 9 road wins (since winning their season opener by a single run) 8 of them have been victories by 2 or more runs. This further adds to support for the run line here. As for Kansas City, the Royals enter this series off a loss following a win. What is interesting to note is the Royals have not had a standalone loss a single time this season. Every loss leads to a losing streak. KC has had losing streaks of 3 games 4 times, a 2 game losing streak, and a 7 game losing streak. Look for this trend to continue here as the Royals 8-4 loss Sunday at Minnesota likely to be the start of yet another losing streak. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 runs in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +110 money range with the Orioles. Lay it! |
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05-01-23 | Giants v. Astros -1.5 | 3-7 | Win | 110 | 16 h 11 m | Show | |
#964 ASA PLAY ON 8* Houston Astros -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over San Francisco Giants, Monday at 8:10 PM ET - Even if this starting pitching match-up changes we still like the Astros here. They have home field edge and a huge bullpen edge. The Giants bullpen ERA is the worst in the National League so far with a 6.15 ERA on the young season. The Astros, on the other hand, are very near the best mark in the majors (2.86 ERA) as Houston's bullpen has compiled a 2.97 ERA so far this season. Now, as far as the expected starters here, Ross Stripling has worked out of the bullpen and as a starter this season and has struggled in both roles! Stripling is winless with a 6.97 ERA thus far. As for the Astros Luis Garcia, he had a tough start to the season but has since bounced back huge. He has not allowed a single earned run in his last two starts plus given up just 5 hits in 13 innings over those two outings! Garcia has struck out 23 in 18 innings over his last 3 starts! The Giants are 4-9 on the road this season and 5-10 this season against teams with a winning record. Houston is 6-3 in inter-league match-ups this season. Astros have won 7 of last 10 games while San Francisco is coming off 3 straight losses including the last 2 in Mexico City. The trip from Mexico City to Houston is not a long one but it is still a unique experience SF just had with the road trip scheduled there and this is a tough scheduling spot for them as a result. Houston was already at home and has momentum after a win over the Phillies Sunday! We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +115 money range with the Astros. Lay it! |
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04-30-23 | Royals v. Twins -1.5 | 4-8 | Win | 102 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
#922 ASA PLAY ON 8* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (-100) over Kansas City Royals, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET - We like this run line play with action on the pitchers as the Royals have one of the worst bullpens in MLB thus far this season as their relievers are 3-5 with a 5.55 ERA! Kansas City had lost 9 straight games at Target Field before notching yesterday's win on a wild pitch. Minnesota had won 5 of 6 games before yesterday's loss. The Royals have won B2B games only once this entire season and their struggles are likely to quickly resume here. Minnesota is 7-2 in divisional games this season and here they are hosting a Royals team that got a rare win over them yesterday. The only team in all of MLB with a record that is worse than KC this season is Oakland. As for the starters here, Sonny Gray of the Twins is 3-0 with a 0.62 ERA in his 5 starts this season. He is holding opponents to a .192 BAA. The Royals Brady Singer has made 5 starts this season. The first one was good and the most recent one was good. However, in between those he allowed 5 or more earned runs in 3 straight starts! He has yet to produce B2B quality starts. 18 of 21 Royals losses have been by at least 2 runs. 13 of 16 Twins victories have been by at least 2 runs. You can see why we have no hesitation in laying the 1.5 runs given those numbers. Regardless of the starting pitchers we have the much stronger team at home and this match-up has dominance written all over it! We think we're getting some nice value at -1.5 in this one and not having to lay any price with the Twins. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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04-26-23 | Royals v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 29 m | Show | |
#982 ASA PLAY ON 8* Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 on the Run Line (-130) over Kansas City Royals, Wednesday at 3:40 PM ET - The Royals snuck out a 5-4 win over Arizona yesterday but had lost 9 of 10 games before the rare win. In those 9 losses Kansas City has scored an average of only 2.4 runs per game! KC has lost 75% of its games this season and 15 of 18 Kansas City defeats have come by at least a 2 run margin this season. We like this run line play with action on the pitchers as the Royals also have one of the worst bullpens in MLB thus far this season as their relievers are 2-5 with a 6.29 ERA! Arizona's bullpen has not been great this season but they still rate a few ticks above the Royals for sure plus the Diamondbacks are the much better overall team and lineup and they are at home for this one. Arizona's relievers actually have a combined 8-3 record and hitters are just hitting .235 against them even though their ERA is a little high thus far this season. Diamondbacks pen the much better pen as you can see. Even with last night's rare win, KC has lost 9 of 11 games and their struggles are likely to continue here. Arizona was 7-4 last 11 at home this season before the loss yesterday. Arizona's last 11 wins have had 9 come by a margin of 2 or more runs and the Royals are 3-10 in day games this season. Regardless of the starting pitchers we have the much stronger team at home and this match-up has dominance written all over it! As for those pichers, Ryan Yarbrough is struggling with command and has hit 6 batters in 4 innings in his last two outings and now makes a start as a bit of an opener here. He may not last very long the way he has been throwing of late! As for the Diamondbacks, Zac Gallen has been fantastic and after some choppiness in his first two starts, he has since dominated. Gallen has not allowed an earned run and averaged 7 innings per start in his last 3 starts and has 29 strikeouts against 1 walk and only 7 hits in those 3 outings! Complete dominance! We think we're getting some nice value at -1.5 in this one and not having to lay too big a price with the Diamondbacks. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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04-25-23 | White Sox v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 0-7 | Win | 101 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
#966 ASA PLAY ON 8* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the Run Line (-100) over Chicago White Sox, Tuesday at 7:07 PM ET - The White Sox have lost 5 straight games. In those 5 losses Chicago has scored an average of only 3 runs per game! 12 of 16 Chicago defeats were by at least a 2 run margin this season. We like this run line play with action on the pitchers as the White Sox also have one of the worst bullpens in MLB thus far this season as their relievers are 2-8 with a 6.10 ERA! Chicago has lost 10 of 12 games and their struggles are likely to continue here. Toronto is 5-2 at home this season and Jose Berrios is 41-19 in home starts since his sophomore season after a tough rookie campaign back in 2016. This home/road dichotomy is no fluke as he is just 29-31 on the road during this time as well. Berrios was rock solid in his only home start this season and more of the same expected in this one. Mike Clevinger is off a tough start and that was at home. Most recent road start also featured struggles for him. Toronto's last 6 wins all have been by 2 or more runs and the White Sox are 4-10 on the road this season. Regardless of the starting pitchers we have the much stronger team at home and this match-up has dominance written all over it! We think we're getting some nice value at -1.5 in this one and not having to lay any price with the Blue Jays. Lay the 1.5 runs here!
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04-23-23 | Rockies v. Phillies -1.5 | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
#952 ASA PLAY ON 8* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (-145) over Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 12:05 PM ET - Raining in Philly this morning but it is supposed to move out of the area well before this very early game gets underway so we should be just fine in terms of getting this one in. We like the Phillies here over the Rockies with action on the pitchers as the home field edge and better overall team gets it done against traditionally road-adverse Colorado. However, we will mention that the expected starting pitchers are Jose Urena for the Rockies and Zack Wheeler for Philadelphia. Taking a look at Wheeler, he struggled in his first start this season as well as his most recent start but those were both road starts. In between these two starts he was at home and he was solid which comes as no surprise. That's because Wheeler dominated at home last season with a 6-3 record and a 1.85 ERA and also the prior season he was 7-5 with a 2.38 ERA in starts in Philly and 4-0 at Citizens Bank Park in 2020. As a member of the division rival Mets prior to 2020, he dominated in terms of minimal hits allowed per innings pitched in starts in Philly. The fact is Wheeler loves it at CBP and dominates a Rockies lineup here that is known for road struggles. The Rockies were 27-54 in road games last season and 26-54 in road games the prior season! On the year this season and last season, 75.5% of the Rockies losses were by at least 2 runs. Phillies, including post-season, are on a hot run in home games including 25-11 last 36. The home/road dichotomy, the edge of Wheeler over Urena (0-3, 9.82 ERA in 2023), the defending NL Champs over one of the worst road teams in MLB...it all adds up to a must play here. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and laying a reasonable price in the -145 money range with the Phillies. Lay it! |
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04-22-23 | A's v. Rangers -1.5 | 3-18 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show | |
#916 ASA PLAY ON 8* Texas Rangers -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Oakland A's, Saturday at 7:05 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as we look for the Rangers to bounce back with big home win no matter who is on the mound in this one. However, we will mention that Texas is expected to send Andrew Heaney to start this one. Heaney had a rough first start this season but is now building momentum with back to back solid outings and he is supported by a very strong bullpen. As for Oakland, Shintaro Fujinami will be the likely starter for the A's here. He is 0-3 with an 11.37 ERA this season and the Athletics bullpen has a 6.54 team ERA this season to rank near the bottom of the majors! The Rangers bullpen has a 2.70 ERA and ranks a solid 3rd in the majors! We expect the Rangers to bounce back from yesterday's tight loss and crush the ball at home in this one. Oakland, before yesterday's upset win, had lost 7 straight and 13 of 14 games! 12 of the Athletics 16 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin. The Rangers had won 8 of 10 before yesterday's loss and Oakland has been horrid for much of this season. All the edges point to the home team and a big-margin win here and the Rangers dozen wins this season have had 11 of the 12 by a multi-run margin! Looking for a home blowout and we think we're getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a price in the -115 money range with the Rangers. Lay it! |
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04-21-23 | Royals v. Angels -1.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 15 m | Show | |
#970 ASA PLAY ON 8* Los Angeles Angels -1.5 on the Run Line (-135) over Kansas City Royals, Friday at 9:35 PM ET - Action on pitchers here as Royals going with a bullpen game in this one. The Kansas City bullpen is dead last in MLB with the highest ERA this season so Los Angeles should have a big advantage on the mound here no matter who is pitching! The Angels are expected to send Shohei Ohtani to start this one. Ohtani is undefeated in his first 4 starts this season and he has been dominant ever since his rookie season in 2018. Ohtani is sporting a 30-14 record in his career and he finished last season with an outstanding 2.33 ERA. The Angels right-hander has been practically unhittable this season with just 6 hits allowed in 21 innings! Taylor Clarke will be the likely starter for the Royals here but he is really just an opener. He has a 6.75 ERA and the Royals bullpen has a 6.89 team ERA! The Angels bullpen has a 3.27 ERA and ranks a solid 7th in the majors! Clarke will likely work only an inning or two for KC and then Ryan Yarbrough is expected to get the bulk of the work here out of the bullpen. He has a 9.00 ERA this season and we expect the Angels to crush the ball at home in this one. Kansas City has lost 6 straight and 9 of last 10 games! 14 of the Royals 15 losses this season have been by at least a 2-run margin. The Angels have not been great this season but KC has been horrid and all the edges point to the home team and a big-margin win here. Looking for a home blowout and we think we're getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one even at a price in the -135 money range with the Angels. Lay it! |
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04-20-23 | Rockies v. Phillies -1.5 | 5-0 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
#904 ASA PLAY ON 8* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (-115) over Colorado Rockies, Thursday at 6:40 PM ET - The Rockies have lost 8 straight games and are 2-7 away from home this season. Annually Colorado tends to be so bad on the road. This long-term trend has resumed this season and, entering this contest, the Rockies have lost 7 straight road games! Colorado has averaged only 2 runs scored per game in last 6 road games. Colorado has even been struggling at home as, overall, the Rockies have averaged only 3 runs scored per game in last 8 games - all losses - and 5 of those were home games! The Phillies have now won 4 of 6 games and have averaged 8.5 runs scored per victory in those 4 wins. 7 of Philadelphia's 8 wins have been by at least a 3-run margin this season. We like the run line for all the reasons above and are not overly concerned with the starting pitching match-up here. We'll take action on the pitchers with this run line play but we will mention that Ryan Feltner is 4-12 with a 6.46 ERA in his career and struggling again this season. The Phillies Matt Strahm, on the other hand, has a respectable 3.74 ERA in his career and has been particularly strong as a starter this season after enjoying some prior successful runs out of the bullpen for the Red Sox and Padres in past seasons. The Phillies have been putting up some really solid offensive numbers on the board. The way Colorado’s offense is playing, the Phillies may not need many runs to cover the -1.5. Take Philadelphia on the run line tonight. |
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04-17-23 | Rangers -1.5 v. Royals | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 10 m | Show | |
#965 ASA PLAY ON 8* Texas Rangers -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Kansas City Royals, Monday at 7:40 PM ET - Texas should have a big advantage on the mound here as they are expected to send Jacob deGrom to start this one. He had a tough first start despite 7 strikeouts and no walks but has settled in nicely in his last two starts as deGrom has 27 strikeouts against just 2 walks in his 16 and 2/3 innings this season. In his two April starts deGrom has allowed only 3 earned runs on just 9 hits in 13 innings of work. His strikeout to walk ratio is fantastic this season. Jordan Lyles will be the likely starter for the Royals here and his struggles have continued with a rough start to this season after another unimpressive season last year. He is now 66-92 in his career with a 5.10 ERA! Lyles is in trouble here against a solid Rangers team and facing them as a member of a Royals team that is again looking like one of the worst teams in the league. He have given up 9 earned runs in 12 innings in his last two starts and that included facing the Rangers in his most recent start. The most recent start for deGrom was against these Royals as well and he dominated in that one. That game Tuesday, in fact, featured these two starters and took 10 innings for Texas to emerge victorious but the Rangers blew a late 2-run lead in that game. The Royals lost again to the Braves yesterday and are now 1-9 in home games and 2-11 against teams with a winning record this season. The Rangers are 7-2 this season against teams with a losing record and Texas has been involved in only one 1-run game out of 15 games this season. The Royals have only had one 1-run loss in their 12 defeats this season. That being said, you can see why we are expecting a road rout decided by a multi-run margin. We think we're getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one at a very fair price - opened up in the -120 range with the Rangers. Lay it! |
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04-16-23 | Guardians -1.5 v. Nationals | 6-7 | Loss | -135 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
#923 ASA PLAY ON 8* Cleveland Guardians -1.5 on the Run Line (-135) over Washington Nationals, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET - Cleveland should have a big advantage on the mound here as they are expected to send Shane Bieber to start this one. Bieber is undefeated in his first 3 starts this season and he has been dominant ever since his rookie season in 2018. Even including that rookie year, Bieber is sporting a 55-26 record in his career and he finished last season with an outstanding 2.88 ERA. Patrick Corbin will be the likely starter for the Nationals here and his struggles have continued with a very rough start to this season after another ugly year last season. He is now 18-44 since the start of the 2020 season. Just like 2022, unfortunately for Corbin, he has picked up right where he left off when he led the National League in 3 categories last season that no pitcher wants to lead in! Corbin had 19 losses and allowed 107 earned runs and gave up 210 hits in 2022! He is in trouble here against a solid Guardians team and facing them as a member of a Nationals team that is one of the worst teams in the league. Corbin was one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball last season and he has been getting rocked this season as well. Also, Washington is 1-7 in day games and 1-7 against right-handed starters and 1-7 in inter-league action - all of those stats are year to date so far this season. The Guardians are 4-2 in day games this season and we look for them to complete the sweep here as they are already a superb 7-2 in road games this season. Looking for a road rout and we think we're getting some nice value with the -1.5 runs in this one even at a price in the -135 money range with the Guardians. Lay it! |
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04-13-23 | Pirates v. Cardinals -1.5 | 5-0 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 38 m | Show | |
#954 ASA PLAY ON 8* St Louis Cardinals -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Thursday at 7:45 PM ET - Take action here as we grab the much better team at home and ready for a home blowout win regardless of the starters. The Pirates are expected to start Vince Velasquez. He struggled to find the plate in spring training and he has more walks than strikeouts so far this season. This will be his 3rd start of the young season and he rolled his left ankle so he is not quite 100% and this will not help him today either. That said, Cardinals bats should roll here and their expected starter is Jared Montgomery. While Velasquez has a 9.82 ERA so far this season, Montgomery has a 2.25 ERA in his first two starts and is coming off a dominating effort over the Brewers in his most recent start. He is 16-6 in night starts since the start of the 2021 season and Pittsburgh's 5 losses this season have all been by at least 2 runs and 4 of the 5 by at least 4 runs. In fact, the average margin of defeat in Pittsburgh losses has been 5 runs. The Pirates were shutout yesterday and have been held to 2 or less runs scored in 3 of last 4 games. The Cardinals have played a tough schedule but are off B2B wins and are starting to turn the corner after facing tough competition to begin their season. All 5 Cardinals wins this season have been by at least a 3 run margin. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and only having to lay a small price in the -120 range with the Cardinals. Lay it! |
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04-12-23 | Marlins v. Phillies -1.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
#908 ASA PLAY ON 8* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Miami Marlins, Wednesday at 4:05 PM ET - As we mentioned Friday in the most recent start for Zach Wheeler, he had struggled in his first start this season but it was on the road. Sure enough, Wheeler bounced back at home Friday with a respectable start and he truly dominated at home last season with a 6-3 record and a 1.85 ERA and also the prior season he was 7-5 with a 2.38 ERA in starts in Philly and 4-0 at Citizens Bank Park in 2020. As a member of the division rival Mets prior to 2020, he dominated in terms of hits per innings pitched in starts in Philly. The fact is Wheeler loves it at CBP and dominates a mediocre (at best) Marlins lineup here. The Marlins got the 8-4 win over the Phillies yesterday but were 35-46 in road games last season. This season all 7 of the Marlins losses have been by at least 2 runs and actually Miami's average margin of defeat is 6 runs per loss which shows how bad their bullpen can fall apart in games. In this case that bullpen could be called upon early too because Edward Cabrera just can not find the plate this season. Sometimes starters will have a one-off game where they just can not throw strikes but something is not right with Cabrera. He walked 6 batters in his first start and 7 batters in his second start and this was in an average of only 3 and 1/3 innings per start! Phillies, including post-season, are on a 56-38 run in home games including 23-9 last 32. The home/road dichotomy, the edge of Wheeler over Cabrera, the defending NL Champs over one of the weaker teams in MLB...it all adds up to a must play here as the Phillies are already a perfect 2-0 this season when at home off a loss and they won those two games by a combined score of 20 to 5. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +115 money range with the Phillies. Lay it! |
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04-11-23 | Tigers v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
#970 ASA PLAY ON 8* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the Run Line (-135) over Detroit Tigers, Tuesday at 7:07 PM ET - The Tigers have lost 7 of 9 games this season. In those 7 losses Detroit has scored an average of only 2 runs per game! All 7 defeats were by at least a 3 run margin. Detroit just does not have the lineup to keep up with the high-powered Jays here. That is why we like this run line play with action on the pitchers but we will mention that the projected pitching match-up of Alek Manoah versus Matt Manning certainly does give the Blue Jays a starting pitching edge here. The Tigers have given up 7 runs per game so they have some bullpen issues too as you can see with that number. The big problem here for Detroit is an inability to score enough to keep up with the high-powered Jays. Toronto has won 5 of 6 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game during that stretch and now this is their home opener. They should tee off on Manning as he was 1-4 with 6.63 ERA on the road in 2021 and had a 4.94 ERA in his 2022 road starts. This is his first road start this season while Manoah will be happy to be at home where he is 12-4 with a 2.39 ERA in his first two seasons. He also is coming off a start on the road last week in which he allowed 0 runs and just 1 hit in 7 innings. Regardless of the starting pitchers we have the much stronger team in their home opener and this match-up has dominance written all over it! We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one laying a moderate, but not huge, price with the Blue Jays. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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04-08-23 | A's v. Rays -1.5 | 0-11 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
#918 ASA PLAY ON 8* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (-140) over Oakland A's, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - Tampa Bay won 9-5 yesterday. The Rays are now 7-0 on the season while the A's dropped to 2-5 on the season. Only 1 of Oakland's 5 losses has come by a one-run margin and all 7 of Tampa Bay's wins have been by a multi-goal margin. That said, the odds favor any Tampa Bay win coming by a multi-run margin. So how about the likelihood of a TB win? Well, it certainly is not a mistake that they are favored by nearly a -300 price on the money line in this one. This Rays team has been dominating. Tampa Bay is scoring about 7 and 1/2 runs per game and allowing only 2 and 1/2 runs per game. The A's, on the other hand, are allowing 7 runs per game and scoring 4 runs per game. Our computer math model is showing a high probability of multi-run win for the hosts here. Yesterday the Rays hit 5 homers and also flashed stellar defense in the field. All facets of the game are going well for the Rays right now. TB should pound Shintaro Fujinami. He was rocked in his MLB debut for the A's and gave up 8 earned runs in 2 and 1/3 innings and that was at home. Now he is on the road and facing the hottest team in MLB. Jeffrey Springs gets the start for the Rays here and we will mention that we like this play no matter who the starting pitchers are but Springs was absolutely dominant in his first start this season. Springs went 6 scoreless and hitless innings and allowed just 1 walk and struck out 12 batters. He is 14-6 the past two seasons and had a dominant 2.46 ERA last season. This match-up has dominance written all over it again and we think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one laying a moderate, but not huge, price with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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04-07-23 | Reds v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 115 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
#978 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 3:05 PM ET - Extra rest is not exactly welcome this early in the season. Lineups are trying to get their timing going at the plate. Starting pitchers are trying to get settled into their regular routine. That said, this is a very tough spot for the Reds and particularly Hunter Greene. Cincinnati was supposed to play the Cubs Wednesday in the finale of that series but it was rained out. Then the opener of this series with the Phillies was rained out. Greene started the season opener for Cincinnati so he was supposed to pitch on more typical rest Wednesday but did not. Then Thursday's game was rained out and, remember, the Reds had an offday last Friday too. So they have played just 4 games in the past 7 days. The hitters are impacted and Greene is definitely impacted here. As for Wheeler, he pitched Saturday so he is in good shape here. Wheeler struggled in his first start this season, as did Greene, but Wheeler dominated at home last season with a 6-3 record and a 1.85 ERA and also the prior season he was 7-5 with a 2.38 ERA in starts in Philly and 4-0 at Citizens Bank Park in 2020. As a member of the division rival Mets prior to 2020, he dominated in terms of hits per innings pitched in starts in Philly. The fact is Wheeler loves it at CBP and dominates a bad Reds team here. This is Cincinnati's first road game and the Phillies first home game this season. Reds were 29-52 in road games last season. On the year last season, 77% of the Reds losses were by at least 2 runs. Phillies, including post-season, are on a 53-36 run in home games including 20-7 last 27. Phillies 6-1 L7 against the Reds and 4-0 L4 at home and the 6 wins by an average victory margin of 3 runs. The home/road dichotomy, the edge of Wheeler on good rest over Greene on too much rest, the defending NL Champs over one of the worst teams in MLB...it all adds up to a must play here. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +115 money range with the Phillies. Lay it!
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04-05-23 | Rays -1.5 v. Nationals | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
#969 ASA PLAY ON 8* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (-140) over Washington Nationals, Wednesday at 1:05 PM ET - As mentioned here in our play on Tampa Bay run line in their 10-6 win over the Nationals, the fact is that the Rays are the overall better team and are perfect on the season and the Nationals have just one win on the season. Washington, entering yesterday's action, was tied with the lowly Marlins for least runs scored (9) on the season. Though they finally scored well yesterday, the Nationals also gave up a pile of runs and, once again, Washington just will not be able to keep up here. The Rays are 5-0 and with their wins by an average score of 7 to 2. That is domination. Speaking of domination, the Nationals have been on the wrong end of it. Washington has 4 losses and by an average score of 7.5 to 2.8. Neither team has been involved in a game decided by less than 3 runs so far. We look for continued domination from the red hot Rays here and they get the win and improve to 6-0 on the season. Better bullpen, better lineup, and better overall team. As for the projected starters here, Corbin is off a nightmare season last year and then began this season with a horrific start versus Braves in which he allowed 7 hits and walked 3 in just 3 innings. The Rays are expected to start McClanahan here and he had a dominating first start of the season versus Detroit and he is coming off a stellar season for Tampa Bay. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one laying a moderate, but not huge, price with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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04-04-23 | Rays -1.5 v. Nationals | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 48 m | Show | |
#925 ASA PLAY ON 8* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Washington Nationals, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - ACTION on pitchers is a key here as the Rays currently have Josh Fleming listed as a starter but he is really more of a long reliever and Tampa Bay could use a different pitcher as an opener. Overall, this is likely to be more of a bullpen game for the Rays. The Nationals are expected to start Chad Kuhl here and he went 6-11 with a 5.72 ERA with the Rockies last season. The key to this match-up though has nothing to do with the pitchers. The fact is that the Rays are the overall better team and are 4-0 on the season and the Nationals are 1-3 on the season and tied with the lowly Marlins for least runs scored (9) on the season. Washington just will not be able to keep up here. The Rays are 4-0 and with their wins by an average score of 7 to 1. That is domination. Speaking of domination, the Nationals have been on the wrong end of it. Washington has 3 losses and by an average score of 7 to 2. Neither team has been involved in a game decided by less than 3 runs so far. We look for continued domination from the red hot Rays here and they get the win and improve to 5-0 on the season. Better bullpen, better lineup, and better overall team. There have not been a lot of one-run games (24.6%) so far this season and the money line is a little too heavy on this one for our liking so we'll turn to the run line and take advantage of a pick'em price in what should be a Tampa Bay blowout. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and not having to lay any big price with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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04-03-23 | Phillies v. Yankees -1.5 | 1-8 | Win | 126 | 16 h 11 m | Show | |
#976 ASA PLAY ON 8* New York Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line (+125) over Philadelphia Phillies, Monday at 7:05 PM ET - Phillies are 0-3 to start the season and off a 1-run loss down in Texas last night. The first two defeats this season were blowout losses and this is tough spot for Philly as they had the Sunday night game down in Texas yesterday and then had to travel back to the Northeast for this one and lose an hour on the clock in the process. The Phillies are a shell of last year's team right now with Bryce Harper still out and Rhys Hoskins lost for the season. Those are two very big bats and the Phillies have scored just 4 runs total the last two games and now face a tough Yankees southpaw. They have very little experience with facing Nestor Cortes and what little they have has not been good. Conversely, the Yankees are quite familiar with Phillies starter Taijuan Walker. That's because he is a former Met and would face them annually in the Subway Series. They have a number of hitters that have pounded him and also he has been taken deep often in his starts versus the Yankees. Our computer math models project Walker gets hit hard and Cortes throws a gem. No matter the pitchers here, we like the powerful and healthier Yankees over a Phillies team struggling out of the gate. No team has a worse run differential than the Phillies -18 and also Philadelphia's 29 runs allowed is the worst mark in the majors and, keep in mind, 10 teams have already played 4 games this season and yet Phillies runs allowed worst of anyone in baseball. There have not been a lot of one-run games (22%) so far this season and the money line is a little too heavy on this one for our liking so we'll turn to the run line and look to cash some plus money on a New York blowout. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +125 money range with the Yankees. Lay it! |
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03-30-23 | Braves -1.5 v. Nationals | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
#961 ASA PLAY ON 8* Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-140) over Washington Nationals, Thursday at 1:05 PM ET - Atlanta dominated this series during the regular season last year including winning 14 of the 19 meetings and 10 of the 14 wins Braves had over the Nationals came by at least 2 runs. In their 19 meetings last season, the Braves had a +49 run differential which equates to +2.6 runs per game and that includes their 5 losses. Pretty dominant to say the least. Atlanta should have a big advantage on the mound here as they are expected to send Fried to start their season opener. Fried is 4-0 in his last 4 decisions vs Washington and is sporting a 52-20 record in the past 4 seasons combined and he finished last season with an outstanding 2.48 ERA. Corbin will be the likely starter for the Nationals here and he led the National League in 3 categories last season that no pitcher wants to lead in! Corbin had 19 losses and allowed 107 earned runs and gave up 210 hits! He is in trouble here against one of the best teams in the league and facing them as a member of a Nationals team that is one of the worst teams in the league. Corbin was poor against the Braves last year as well with a 9.42 ERA and OBA of .391 as Braves hit nearly .400 against hime! He faced Atlanta 4 times last season and was rocked for 15 ER’s in just 14 innings of work. The visitor has the better bullpen and, entering a new season, they of course have all the key arms available for this one other than injured closer Raul Iglesias. However, his short-term absence for Atlanta is mitigated by the fact they have such depth - including in the bullpen - and can lean heavily on guys like AJ Minter, Joe Jimenez and Collin McHugh. They are rested and ready and we're getting this Braves team with a top starter on the mound vs a Nationals team with a guy that would be a 4th starter on most teams and not an opening day guy. Corbin was one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball last season. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one even at a price in the -140 money range with the Braves. Lay it! |
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10-11-22 | Padres v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show |
#924 ASA TOP PLAY ON LA Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (+100) over San Diego Padres, Tuesday at 9:35 PM ET - LA dominated this series during the regular season winning 14 of the 19 meetings and 13 of those wins came by at least 2 runs. In their 19 meetings this season, the Dodgers had a +63 run differential which equates to +3.3 runs per game and that includes their 5 losses. Pretty dominant to say the least. LA should have a big advantage on the mound here as they will send either Kershaw or Urias to start game 1. Both were outstanding vs San Diego this season with Kershaw sporting a 0.75 ERA in 2 starts vs the Padres and Urias came in with a 1.50 ERA in 4 starts. Clevinger will be the starter for San Diego after they used their top 3 starters over the weekend in NY. He has not pitched since October 1st and is coming off an illness so he may not be at 100%. Clevinger was poor on the road this year as well with a 5.46 ERA and a WHIP of 1.35. He faced LA 3 times this season and was rocked for 14 ER’s in just 13 innings of work. The host has had the better bullpen all season long (2nd in ERA and 1st in WHIP) and they have all arms available for this one. They are rested and ready while Padres are off emotional 3 game east coast series vs Mets. We’re getting this rested LA team with their top starter on the mound (either Urias or Kershaw) vs the Padres 4th starter. We think we’re getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at even money with the Dodgers. |
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09-21-22 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5 | 6-1 | Loss | -145 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
#962 ASA PLAY ON 8* LA Dodgers -1.5 on Run Line (-145) over Arizona, Wednesday at 10:10 PM ET - The Dodgers split their doubleheader yesterday with the DBacks and Arizona’s win in the night cap was just their 4th win in 17 meetings vs LA this season. In those 13 losses vs the Dodgers, 9 of them came by at least 2 runs and we’ll call for another on Wednesday evening. Arizona will send Bumgarner to the mound and he has been struggling for much of the season but especially as of late. He’s allowing an average of 4.4 ER’s per game over his last 10 starts and his average innings pitched during that span is 5. He's had at least 5 runs scored on him in 7 of his last 9 starts and his ERA during that run is 7.82. That shouldn’t change tonight facing a Dodger line up that is averaging 6.4 RPG at home vs left handers this year. In their 2 games vs Bumgarner this season, LA has scored 8 runs in just 11 innings. The Dodgers Dustin May will get his 6th start since coming back from injury. In his previous 5 starts he’s allowed an average of just 2 ER’s per start and in his most recent start he didn’t allow a single run or a hit vs SF in his 5 innings of work. They have May on a pitch count again tonight but when he comes out the Dodgers bullpen ERA of 2.95 is 2nd best in the Majors and their WHIP of 1.06 ranks #1. May and the LA pitching staff should fare well tonight vs an Arizona line up that is hitting just .178 over their last 10 games and averaging 2.5 RPG. Even though they’ve wrapped up the NL West, the Dodgers still have a ton to play for as they still haven’t locked up the best record in the NL and they are chasing their all time best season of 106 wins (still need 4 more). They win at home by an average of more than 2 RPG and they should dominate tonight. Take LA -1.5 runs. |
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09-19-22 | Tigers v. Orioles -1.5 | Top | 11-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* #968 Baltimore Orioles -1.5 runs vs. Detroit Tigers, 7 PM ET - Baltimore is in desperation mode as they sit 4-games back in the Wild Card race with time running out on the regular season. The Tigers are the perfect opponent to cut into that deficit. Detroit is 55-91 on the season and have a season net run differential of minus -173 which ranks them 27th out of 30 teams. Baltimore will send Tyler Wells to the mound who is 7-6 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. The Tigers will counter with lefty Tyler Alexander who is 3-10 on the season with a 5.35 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. He is 0-3 in his last four starts with an ERA over 10.00, allowing 28 total hits, 19 runs in 18.3 innings of work. What’s significant for our bet against him here is that the Tigers lost those four starts by an average of 4.25 runs per game. Detroit really struggles against right-handed starters this season hitting jut .213 as a team and scoring 3.07 runs/9 innings. We will lay the 1.5 runs in this one. |
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09-15-22 | Reds v. Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -127 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
#956 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* St Louis Cardinals -1.5 Runs (-130) over Cincinnati Reds, Thursday at 7:45 PM ET - The Reds are in a free fall losing 6 straight games including a 4 game sweep at home at the hands of the Pittsburgh Pirates. In that series the Reds were outscored 23-8 and only collected 23 total hits for an average of less than 6 hits per game. St Louis is surging winning 33 of their last 45 games and they’ve built a 7 game lead in the NL Central over Milwaukee. The Cards are also chasing the Mets to try and earn a bye in the wild card round. Mikolas is on the mound and he has been fantastic at home this season with a 2.23 ERA allowing just 59 hits in 89 innings pitched. He’s coming off a poor outing, however that was on the road vs where his numbers are quite a bit higher, and he’s had an extra day off to rest up between starts. In his 1 start at home vs the Reds this season he pitched 7 innings and allowed 1 ER. Cincy is struggling at the plate right now and we expect them to have problems plating runs tonight. That shouldn’t be a problem for St Louis. They will be facing Chase Anderson who has pitched only 9 innings this season, but 2.1 of those innings have come vs the Cardinals. They faced him twice just 2 weeks ago and Anderson gave up 7 ER’s in only 2.1 innings. On the season he’s allowed 3 home runs in just 9 innings which is a potential big problem here vs the Cards who are averaging 1.3 HR’s per game and have hit the most round trippers in MLB since the All Star Break. Anderson is backed up by the worst bullpen in MLB (highest ERA and 2nd highest WHIP) so we don’t expect the offense to stop when he exits. Cincinnati is just 27-43 on the road this year and vs teams over .500 they have the 2nd fewest wins in the Majors with a record of 25-53. We like the host Cardinals to win this one by 2+ runs. |
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09-12-22 | Cubs v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* NY Mets -1.5 (-135) vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:10 PM ET - The Cubs are struggling to score runs with 39 scored in their last 12 games or 3.25 per game. The Mets are 5th in baseball in total runs scored on the season at 666 in 141 games. New York is putting up an average of 5.52 runs per 9/innings over the course of their last ten games. In the Mets last two games they outscored Miami 20-6. Chicago has been shutout twice in their last ten games and scored 3 or less in six games. Looking closer, in their last ten games the Mets are hitting .297 as a team versus right-handed pitchers and scoring 6.28 runs/9innings. The Cubs are hitting .239 as a team vs. righties in their last ten games scoring 3.68 runs/9 innings. NY will send Chris Bassett who is 13-7 SU on the season with a 3.24 ERA. In his last ten starts though Bassett has allowed 2.23 Earned Runs Per game while allowing just 5.46 hits. The Cubs will counter with young Javier Assad who is 0-1 in three starts with a 2.93 ERA. He was recently roughed up by the Reds in 5.1 innings when he allowed 4 earned runs on 5 hits. The Mets get a big home win in this game as they battle the Braves for the Division lead. |
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08-29-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
#903 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (-130) over Miami Marlins, Monday at 6:40 PM ET - The Dodgers have taken 2 of the first 3 in this series and this one sets up very nicely for them to pick up a win. LA’s one loss in this series was a 2-1 setback vs one of MLB’s top pitchers, Sandy Alcantara. In the other 2 games, LA has outscored Miami 18-7 and they’ve outhit the Marlins 30 to 10 in those 2 games. Not surprising as the Dodgers have the highest batting average and most runs scored in MLB this season. Meanwhile, since the All Star Break the Miami offense has been brutal. They rank dead last in batting average at .212 and they’ve only scored 92 runs (2.5 RPG) which is by far the worst in the Majors over that time period (Washington has scored 110 runs which ranks them 29th post All Star). Now we have a team that can’t hit or score runs facing Dodger pitcher Gonsolin who has allowed the lowest batting average in MLB this year at .169! He has allowed 2 ER’s or less in 20 of his 23 starts this season and he’s backed by one of the top bullpens in baseball. Just a terrible match up for a light hitting Miami team. Miami starter Lopez has tailed off drastically in the 2nd half of the season and the LA hitters should continue to stay hot tonight. Lopez was very good prior to the break with an ERA of 2.66, however since then he has started 7 games with an ERA of 6.00. His only really solid start in the 2nd half of the season was vs Oakland who is one of the worst hitting teams in MLB. The bullpen has also fallen off as of late with an ERA of almost 6.00 their last 10 outings so LA should have a chance to put some really solid offensive numbers on the board. The way Miami’s offense is playing the Dodgers may not need many runs to cover the -1.5. Take LA on the run line tonight. |
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08-28-22 | Pirates v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -124 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
#956 ASA PLAY ON Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Sunday at 1:35 PM ET - The Phillies have dominated this series with a perfect 6-0 record this year including a 6-0 win last night. The average score of the 6 games this season is Phillies 5.8 – Pirates 2.7. Going back further, the Phillies have won 11 of the last 13 meetings in Philadelphia and 73% of those wins have come by 2+ runs. The Pirates have been heading downhill for a while now losing 7 straight and 24 of their last 31 games. They are just 18-41 this year vs teams with a winning record. Since the All Star Break they rank dead last in MLB in batting average at .214 and 29th in OPS. They are averaging just 2.1 RPG during their current 7 game losing streak. They face Philly starter Syndergaard who has been on a nice run allowing 3 ER’s or less in 7 of his last 8 starts (4 with Angels and 4 with Philadelphia). The Phillies have been playing great baseball winning 22 of their last 31 games. Their offense ranks in the top 10 in RPG, batting average, and OPS and since the All Star Break they have a batting average of .274 which is 3rd best in MLB during that stretch. They have scored at least 6 runs in 5 of their last 7 games. They got a boost offensively as well with Bryce Harper rejoining the line up after a stint on the DL. The Phillies should have another big day offensively facing Pittsburgh starter Contreras who is 1-3 in last 4 starts with an ERA of 6.10. When he exits the Pittsburgh bullpen is among the worst in baseball ranking dead last in ER’s allowed and hits allowed this season. Phillies keep rolling with another easy win this afternoon. |