ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 216 - Washington @ Boston, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

These were two of the top 8 scoring offenses this season with Boston ranking 8th and Washington 5th.  The Wiz averaged 107 PPG in their opening round series vs Atlanta yet only shot 45% from the field and 31% from deep in those 6 games.  Those numbers are far below their regular season averages of 47.5% and 37% so the fact is, despite scoring at a high rate, they didn’t shoot the ball all that well.  On the defensive end they allowed a Hawks team that averaged 103 PPG during the regular season to average 106 PPG in the series.  Atlanta didn’t shoot the ball well either hitting 45% overall and only 30% from beyond the arc.  So neither team shot very well for the series yet they still averaged 213 PPG.  Boston’s offense was definitely off kilter their first 2 games, both losses, vs Chicago.  However, once they settled in, the Celts put up 104 or more in each of their last 4 games vs the Bulls.  Chicago’s offense was putrid in those 4 games but let’s not forget the Bulls ranked near the bottom of the NBA this season in scoring and shooting percentage.  Boston will not be able to slow down the Wizards nearly as easily as they did the Bulls.  These two met four times this season and the oddsmakers set 3 of those 4 totals higher than this current number of 216.  The lowest output of those four meetings was 211 and they averaged 220 points in those four games.  The two teams combined to shoot 46% in those four games so the fact is they put up a lot of points, yet didn’t shoot light’s out.  This one goes OVER the total.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 204 - Boston @ Chicago, Friday at 8:05 PM ET

Our computer says under along with several other indicators including public money on ‘over’ but the line has dipped. In the two meetings in Chicago the total points scored has ended up being 191 and 199. There has been a poor shooting performance by one of the two teams in nearly every game of this series. The ‘under’ is 5-0 the last five clashes between these two teams in the Windy City. Celtics ‘under’ in 13 of their last 16 road games. Bulls ‘under’ in 10 of their last eleven home games against teams with winning road records. That tells us the Bulls know they must slow the pace to have a chance to win. They’ll grind tonight and keep this from being a shootout. BET UNDER!

We will play UNDER 195.5 in the Toronto Raptors @ Milwaukee Bucks game. Tipoff is 7PM ET. We hit a big UNDER wager earlier in this series in Game 3 and will come right back here with the same bet. Looking at this first round matchup we see the Bucks have scored 97 or less points in 3 of the five games. Toronto has scored 87 or less points in 3 of the five. In the most recent meeting in Toronto, these two teams combined for 211 total points but they only took 139 shots to get there. Remember, the league average for field goal attempts per game is 170 and the league average for points scored is 211. So these two clubs scored the league average but took 31 LESS FG ATTEMPTS! In other words, they shot extremely well. Had the Bucks shot their regular season average percentage on the game they score around 83 points. The same can be said for the Raptors. If they shoot 'normally' at home they score approximately 100 points. In the two games in Milwaukee the Raptors scored 77 and 87 points and shot an average of 37.5%. The Bucks put up 104 and 76 points in the two games in Milwaukee but shot nearly 53% in the game they put up 104 (regular season average 47.5%). Lots of UNDER support here as 5 straight meetings on this court between these two franchises have all stayed below the posted number.  11-4 under record the last 15 meets. Based on pace of play we expect a low scoring game.  

ASA play on UNDER 195 Utah Jazz @ LA Clippers, 10:30PM ET - This is clearly a contrarian wager on our part and we'll explain why we're on the right side here. Take a look at the actual Totals posted by Vegas on the last three games of this series. In Game 2 the Total was 199.5 and the two teams combined for 190 points. That was with 154 combined field goal attempts. In Game 3 the number is set at 197.5 which is a logical adjustment by Vegas based on the first two games. The Jazz and Clippers have hot shooting nights and combine for 217 total points but they only attempts 144 field goals. After a high scoring game you'd expect the number to go up correct? In Game 4 though, the number drops to 196 and they total 203-points. They did it again with some remarkable shooting on just 149 attempts from the field. So after two straight overs and higher scoring games the number tonight dips to the lowest of the series at 195? The key here is the pace of play statistics. The league average for FG attempts per game is 170 but these two teams have combined for 144 and 149 in two straight games. Logically, statistics say their shooting percentages return to normal and at a slower paced game we get a very low scoring contest. Both teams are very good shooting teams on the season but in the last two games they've been abnormally good. The Jazz have shot a combined 53% (season ave 46.7%) while the Clippers shot 54% in Game 3 and have made 39% of their 3's the past two games which is also higher than their season numbers. The Under has cashed 5 of the last six meetings here. Play UNDER!

ASA play OVER 220 Golden State Warriors @ Portland Trailblazers 10:30PM ET.  To begin with our Math Model projected 228 total points on this game with the big indicators here being the pace of play. In the last two games these teams have combined for 181 FG attempts in each game which is substantially higher than the league average. In comparison to the league average for points scored per game (211) and field goal attempts this total has still not been set high enough. In other words we need 'average' shooting nights from both teams to cash in. Golden State’s road efficiency numbers are off the charts as they average 1.128 points per possession which is 2nd best in the NBA. They average 113PPG on the road and in the three meeting here against the Blazers this season they put up 127, 113 and 119 points. There is no reason the Warriors don’t get to 115 plus in this game, especially considering the Blazers have the 7th worst defensive efficiency defense in the NBA allowing 1.109PPP and 108.5PPG. But to get to 220+ we’ll need the Blazers to score and we feel they will. Portland was in the top half of the league in pace of play and 8th in the NBA in scoring at 107.9PPG. All four of the regular season meetings between these two ended with 224 or more points and just 1 of the three playoff meetings has ended with less than 230 total points. 9 of the last ten meetings has ended with more total points than tonight's number so let's keep this simple and not over-think it. BET OVER!

ASA's 10* NBA PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR - PLAY ON San Antonio -3.5 over Memphis, Saturday at 8:00 PM ET

We love this wager on the San Antonio Spurs over Memphis Grizzlies, Game 4 Saturday, 8PM ET. The Spurs won the first two games of the series then played poorly in Game 3 and lost to the Grizzlies by 11-points. Memphis played great in Game 3 but the margin wasn’t insurmountable for the Spurs on an off day. The Grizzlies shot nearly 51% as a team, 41% from the 3-point line, 90% from the FT line and only had 5 turnovers. We like when elite teams are coming off a bad loss and with a marginal spread here this is an easy call to lay the points with the visitor. The Spurs road record of 31-11 SU this year is better than the Grizzlies 25-17 SU record. San Antonio had an average road point differential of +6.2PPG which is better than all but 6 teams HOME differentials in the entire league. That’s amazing when you really think about it! In comparison, the Grizzlies home differential was +2.1PPG which is 21st worst in the entire league. San Antonio was 16-5 SU this season when coming off a loss and an INCREDIBLE 95-30 SU (76%) off a beat since 2012. With this line being as low as it is we are basically just asking them to win this game outright and odds are when they win it will be by more than 4-points. Memphis lost a key defensive cog with the injury to Tony Allen and that’s one less defender to slow down Kawhi Leonard. Easy call here for a wager on Coach Popp and the Spurs to bounce back with a win over a mediocre Memphis team. Lay it!

ASA Play on: Milwaukee Bucks (-1.5) over Toronto Raptors. The natural shift in this line has this number right where it should be but we felt the Bucks would be a few points higher than it is. Milwaukee outplayed the Raptors in both games in our opinion and had two 3’s rim out late in Game 2 which would have given them a lead, and could have altered that outcome putting them up 2-0 in the series. The Bucks shot just 41.4% in Game 2 after hitting 44.7% in Game 1 and now that they are back home, expect those shooting percentages to go up. On the year, the Bucks shot 47.9% at home (6th best in the NBA),  and over 37% (13th) from beyond the arc. The Bucks closed the regular season out by winning 8 of their last ten home games which included a 7-point win against this same Raptors team as a 1-point favorite. Since 2013 the Raptors have the lowest ATS winning percentage in the NBA at 28.1% (9-23-1 ATS record) so it’s not like we are playing against a franchise with a solid recent history of winning in the post season. Not to mention, one of the Raptors key players, Kyle Lowry is not known as a clutch player in the postseason. Even though he made the game winner the other night, Lowry has a career playoff shooting percentage of just .381% which is well below his season averages. The Bucks were 7-3 ATS this season when tabbed a favorite of -2.5-points or less and we feel they take care of business at home in Game #3. 

We are going to play UNDER in the Portland Trailblazers @ Golden State Warriors game #2, Weds 10:30PM ET - Public money has been steadily coming in on the OVER tonight, yet the line has dropped from 221 to 220. The opening game of this series ended with 230 total points but there were some abnormal circumstances that we don't expect to repeat tonight. The Blazers starting backcourt of CJ McCollum and Damian Lillard went off in Game 1 as they combined for 75 of the 109 points the Blazers scored. Those two players were 28 of 54 from the field and 7 of 15 from beyond the arc. It's unlikely those two great players can duplicate a performance like that again tonight. The rest of the Blazers shot just 30% on the night. Meanwhile the Warriors shot 53% from the field and Kevin Durant contributed 32 points on 12 of 20 shooting. Durant is questionable tonight  and even if he does play he won't be 100% and won't put up those numbers again. Let's not forget the Warriors have the 2nd best overall defensive efficiency rating in the NBA overall, #1 when playing at home. Portland hasn't been great defensively all season long but they were better down the stretch of the regular season by holding five straight opponents to 106 points or less. All the indicators tell us the UNDER is the way to go here. 

We are playing OVER 194 in the Milwaukee Bucks @ Toronto Raptors game Tuesday. The line on this game has been over-adjusted by the Oddsmakers as its 4 full points less than Game 1. Granted, these two teams combined for just 180 total points in the opener but the Raptors couldn't make a shot in the second half and only scored 13-points in the 4th quarter. For the game the Raptors shot just 36%, going 27 of 75 from the field. That's an abnormally low number as Toronto shot 46.3% on the season which was 11th best in the NBA. Not to mention their 75 field goal attempts were 9 less than their season average of 84.3 on the year. If Toronto has an average night shooting and an average number of field goal attempts, the opener goes way over this number. The Bucks had a decent shooting night as they hit 44.7% from the field but that is still below their season average of 47.4% which was 4th best in the NBA. On the road this season the Bucks average 204 total points per game while the Raptors averaged 213 at home. Do you know how many times the Raptors and their opponent have totaled less than 200 points in Toronto this year? Just 9 times out of 42 games! This is the 6th meeting of the season between these two teams and 4 of the six had totals set by the oddsmakers of 203 or more. Value says bet OVER! 

ASA PLAY ON: Over 208 Indiana Pacers @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 7PM ET - All we need is an average game for this bet to win and we feel we get that tonight. What we mean by average is this. The league average for points scored in an NBA game is 211PPG this year and based on what these two teams did this year we are predicting 213 total points. Both clubs are right around league average when it comes to pace or possessions per game. Both Indiana and Cleveland are above average in terms of offensive efficiency ratings with the Cavs having the 3rd highest points per possession in the NBA at 1.137PPP. Both teams are also below average in defensive efficiency. In the opener these two combined for 217 total points and that was with the Cavs missing 13 free throws and Kyrie Irving going just 1 for 9 from beyond the arc. In the last four meetings between these two teams they've combined for 249, 217, 265 (OT) and 217. Both teams have some significant over trends right now and we'll predict another over tonight. 

ASA PLAY ON: @TORONTO RAPTORS (-7) over Milwaukee Bucks, 5:30PM ET - We are playing on the Toronto Raptors at home minus the points (-7) over the visiting Milwaukee Bucks. The Raptors are 60-22 SU at home last 2 seasons with an average point differential of 7.1PPG which is the 5th best differential in the entire NBA the past two years. They have a veteran team that is healthy right now and know what it takes to win in the playoffs. We feel the Lowry injury was a blessing for the Raptors how had the opportunity to develop some other players and build chemistry. As far as the season series is concerned, the Raptors won 3 of 4 meetings with Bucks this year and both home games were blowouts by 16 and 22 points. The young Bucks have a bright future and may win a few games in this series, just not the opener on the road. On the year the Bucks had a negative road differential of -2.9PPG which is exactly league average. Milwaukee was out-shot and out-rebounded in both games in Toronto and lost by a combined 38 total points AND that was with starter Jabari Parker in the lineup who scored 48 points in those 2 contests.  Raps 5-1 ATS last six meetings and chalk has covered 21 of the last 29 between these two teams.  Any way we slice it comes up Toronto in Game 1.

ASA play on: Dallas Mavericks (-2) over Denver Nuggets, 8:35PM ET - The Denver Nuggets were eliminated from the playoffs in heart-breaking fashion the other night at home when Russell Westbrook hit a 26-foot jumper at the buzzer to beat Denver. It's only human nature to let down here after that emotional beat. With literally nothing to play for we don't expect a focused Nuggets team to put up much of a fight here. Dallas on the other hand is coming off a blowout loss and will be playing their final home game of the season and will want to reward their loyal followers with a good showing. Sure, the Mavs are just 1-4 SU their last five home games but take a look at who they played: Spurs, Thunder, Raptors, Clippers and Warriors. Those are five of the best teams in the NBA (excluding OKC who is good but not great). The Nuggets were recently a 2-point home favorite over the Mavs which means this line should be much higher than it currently is. The Mavs as a low chalk have been great this year with a 7-1 ATS mark when laying 3.5 or less points. Nuggets have not covered a game in Dallas in 5 straight tries! Given the circumstances this sets up to be an EASY win for Dallas!

Today we play OVER 227.5 in the Oklahoma City Thunder @ Phoenix Suns game, 10PM ET. The Thunder are essentially locked into the 6th seed in the West so this game really isn't about playoff positioning. But it is about Russell Westbrook setting the all time record for the most triple-doubles in a season so expect a focused Thunders team tonight. OKC could play a better opponent than tonight's as the Suns are young, fun and want to run-n-gun! Westbrook is averaging 41.7 points, 13.7 rebounds and 13.7 assists against the Suns this season and had a pair of games with 51 and 48 points! He also needs just 6 assists tonight to ensure averaging double digits assists this year and who better to play than the Suns who he has a career best 22 assist game against. Phoenix waved the white flag a week ago and are sitting veteran players to see how the younger pieces fit. Defensively for the Sun's it's been a disaster as they've allowed 120+ in four straight and 112 or more in 9 of their last ten games. Phoenix has the 3rd worst defensive efficiency rating in the NBA on the year and are also the 2nd fastest paced team which helps our wager tonight. Just over a month ago these same two teams met and combined for 229 total points and that was with the Thunder shooting just 42.5% as a team against a Suns D that allows over 47% on their home court. OKC has played in a few lower scoring games of late but tonight they'll gladly play the Suns style and it will lead to 230+ points. 

ASA play on: OVER 202.5 Dallas Mavericks @ LA Clippers, 10:35PM ET - Based on the full season statistics our math model projects 207 total points in this game but when we dissect those numbers, we see a current trend toward an even higher scoring game. On the season the Mavs average 92.1 possessions per game which is what they've averaged their last five games. But their offensive efficiency numbers are better and their defensive efficiency numbers are worse. Dallas is coming off a game last night and when playing without rest the Mavs have averaged 205PPG on the season. The Clippers are about league average in pace of play and offensive efficiency ratings but below average in defensive efficiency. Don't forget the average total points scored in an NBA game this year is 211 so today's total on this game is set a full 8-points less than average. The Clippers have had 3 full days rest leading up to tonight and in the previous 4 games in this scheduling situation those games have averaged 234 total points. 

ASA play on: Utah Jazz (-6) over Portland Trailblazers, 10:35PM ET - This is clearly a big game for both teams as the Jazz are fighting for the 4th spot in the West and a first round home series versus the Clippers. Portland on the other hand is fighting for the 8th and final spot in the West. At first glance this looks like a tough call but really it's not. We consider the Jazz one of the 8 best teams in the league and this is a great spot to play on them considering they are off a loss in San Antonio their last game out. Utah is 5-1 SU their last six when playing at home off a loss and all five of those victories came by 6 or more points. The Jazz are 26-12 SU at home this season with the 7th best home differential in the NBA of +6PPG. Portland is 16-24 SU on the road this season with a negative differential of -3.8PPG. They have been good when playing without rest this year, but a key injury to starting center Jusuf Nurkic, has really hurt their depth and front court presence. Last night in Minny, Karl-Anthony Towns dominated the Blazers bigs with a 34-point, 12 rebound night. Jazz center Rudy Gobert could put up similar numbers tonight. The home team has been the bet in this series as they hold a 5-0 ATS record and four of the five wins by the home team have been blowouts. Play on the Jazz!

ASA play on: Toronto Raptors (-5.5) over Indiana Pacers. There really isn't a reason to expect the Pacers to suddenly turn around their road fortunes tonight in Toronto against a Raptors team that is really good on their home floor. Toronto is 25-13 SU on their home court this year with the 6th best average point differential in the NBA of +7.7PPG. By comparison, Indiana is just 11-26 SU away this season with a negative differential of minus -6.5PPG which is 8th worst in the league. The Pacers have lost 6 straight road games by an average of 13PPG, so as I said before, why would they do a 180 tonight and play well away from home? Both teams have plenty to play for as the Raptors are looking to move up in the East, while the Pacers are trying to hold on to a playoff spot. We do like the fact the Raptors are off a home loss here as they have covered 5 of their last six off a loss anyplace.  They have back to back home losses just once this season and that came to a San Antonio Spurs team that is one of the best teams in the league. Toronto recently beat the Pacers 116-91 and dominated the boards 51-33. Expect much of the same tonight.

UNDER 199 in the New Orleans at Utah Jazz game tonight, 10:30PM ET. There are several questionable players in the rotations for both teams but either way we expect a lower scoring game tonight. These same two teams recently met on this court (3/6) and produced just 171 total points. The Vegas number on that game was 197. Looking at the Pelicans most recent games they've played against some of the leagues faster paced teams which has led to some higher scoring games, hence a higher line on this game. But when they've played similar teams to the Jazz like Memphis and Toronto they've scored just 177 and 181 total points. Utah is the slowest paced team in the NBA at just 91.6  possessions per game and they have the 3rd best defensive efficiency rating allowing just 1.051 points per possession. New Orleans typically plays faster but they also have the 5th best DEFF rating allowing just 1.064PPP. We doubt New Orleans wants to get into an up-and-down game tonight after a game last night in Denver  which will clearly help out cause here. We bet UNDER the total!

ASA PLAY OVER 194 in the Toronto Raptors @ Dallas Mavericks game, 8:35PM ET. Our analytics or math model has put us on this total that has clearly been set to low by the oddsmakers. Our computers tell us the total points scored in this game should be 203 which is drastically different that the set number. Let's not forget the league average for points scored in an NBA game is 211. Both of these team are near the league average in pace of play so we know we'll get the tempo we need for points. They are slightly better than average in terms of defensive efficiency ratings and Toronto is far better in offensive efficiency than the Mavs. But again, we're talking averages here and what the projected total points that will be scored based on math. Part of the reason this number is so low is the fact these two teams recently playing in Toronto and that game ended with just 178 total points but the Mavs, who average 98PPG on the season, managed just 78. That won't happen at home today where they average 100.5PPG on the season. The value wager on this game is OVER the total!

ASA 3* PLAY UNDER 221 Brooklyn Nets @ Washington Wizards, 7PM ET.  We successfully played under in the Nets game last night and our  math model has put us on this under tonight. Quickly, comparing last night's Nets game with tonight's opponent, we see that Washington plays slower than Phoenix (Nets played last night) and are better defensively.  But yet the line on tonight's game is nearly the same. These same two teams just met in mid-February and combined for 224 in overtime. At the end of regulation the Nets and Wizards had combined for just 200 points in that game. As we mentioned last night, the Nets are playing much slower of late and it's led to 3 unders in their last four games. Last night they did put up 126 points but that was against a Suns team that is horrible defensively and they are a team that has quit on the season. Washington has a huge game on deck against the Cavs and play a tough stretch of games coming up so the last thing they'll want to do tonight is run-n-gun. When playing in Washington the Wizards, combined with their opponent, have topped 224 total points just two times in their last 13. Brooklyn games average 224PPG on the road this year, Washington home games average 215. Do the math! Both teams scoring and points allowed are trending down right now and we bet UNDER here!

The value NBA Total bet tonight is UNDER in the Phoenix Suns @ Brooklyn Nets game. Our math model projects 218 total points in this game. The oddsmakers opened a number of 219.5 which has gone up dramatically to the current total. Obviously, there is tremendous value with the UNDER here. Phoenix is one of the highest scoring teams in the NBA at 107.1PPG but in their last five games they are averaging just 99.4PPG which is the 6th lowest average in the NBA. While their offensive numbers have been on a slide down hill, their defensive statistics have improved. On the season the Suns allow 1.116 points per possession (5th worst) but in their last five games they are giving up an average of 1.068PPP which is 12th best in the league. Phoenix has scored 103 or less points in 6 straight games. The Nets have had a few slower paced games and it looks like the wear and tear of the season is catching up with them, much like the Suns. The Nets are the fastest paced team in the league on the year with 101.1 possessions per game but in their last five games that average has dipped to 97 possessions which is 18th slowest. On the year the Nets have one of the three worst offenses in terms of offensive efficiency ratings and they've averaged just 99PPG their last three games. When the Suns have played on the road this season those games have averaged 219PPG while the Nets home games have averaged 215PPG. This is an easy call with the UNDER!

ASA PLAY OVER 207.5 in the Milwaukee Bucks @ Portland Trailblazers 10PM ET. We have patiently watched this line drop all day as it opened at 214.5 and is now 207.5 which offers tremendous value with an OVER bet. When these two teams met earlier this year the oddsmakers posted a number of 215 which is where our  math model suggests this game will end up at. They combined for 222 in the earlier meeting and an easy over winner. Portland returns home tonight where they've combined with their opponents to scored more than tonight's total in 13 of their last 15. Milwaukee has gone under in several games of late but they also faced a few of the leagues better defensive efficiency teams in the NBA. Tonight they face a Blazers team that is 27th in the NBA in DEFF, allowing 1.117 points per possession. When playing on the road this season the Bucks games have averaged 207PPG this season while the Blazers home games have averaged 219 total points. The last 13 times these two teams have met in Portland the over has cashed 9 times. The bet here is OVER!

We will play OVER 192.5 in the Utah Jazz @ Indiana Pacers, 7PM ET - We are betting a number here as the value lies with an over wager on this game. Our math model suggests 201.5 points in this contest which is drastically higher than the Vegas line. Remember, scoring is up this year in the NBA and the league is per game is 211PPG. The Jazz are the slowest paced team in the league and yet they've had just 9 games in their last 51 with a posted total lower than tonight's number. Granted, the over is just 5-4 in those games but the point is Vegas doesn't typically post lines this low on games. As for the Pacers and Vegas Totals they have played 69 games this season and only TWO have had totals less than 200 points and both went over. These same two teams met in late January and the oddsmaker posted a number of 200.5 on that game and they combined for 209 points. Overall on the road this season the Jazz and their opponents are averaging 198PPG while the Pacers home games have averaged 208 total points per game. Utah is 15-10 to the over when the line is 194.5 or less. Over is 4-1 L5 Pacers games versus a team with a winning straight up record. 

ASA PLAY  ON: #532 @Cleveland Cavaliers (-7) over Detroit Pistons, 7PM ET - At first glance it looks like the Pistons plus the points would be the bet here but closer inspection tells us differently. The Cavs (and LeBron) are clearly a 'play on' team given the circumstances and you have to pick and choose your spots carefully considering they're over-valued by the oddsmakers on most occasions. Tonight the Cavs are on NBA TV which normally brings out the best of ego driven LBJ. Plus, these two teams just met in Detroit with the Pistons winning 106-101 as a +4.5-point underdog. Clearly, based on the line on that game the Cavs should be a much bigger favorite here. Cleveland is returning home after a 3-game road trip which saw them go 1-2 and prior to that they lost at home to the Heat. All those factors will have the Cavs on top of their game tonight against a poor traveling Pistons team (11-21 SU on the road.) Cleveland is 26-7 SU at home and have the 4th best point differential of +8.9PPG at home in the NBA. The last time these two teams met here the Cavs won by 23. Expect another big win tonight given the circumstances. 

ASA PLAY ON: #827 Boston Celtics (-6.5) @ Phoenix Suns, 5PM ET - We're going to lay the points with Boston on the road over Phoenix. The Suns have won two straight home games but in both cases (OKC and Charlotte) they caught their opponents in bad scheduling situation. Today they get a Boston team that is the second best team in the East and playing well and has the 5th best road differential in the NBA at +1.9PPG (only 5 teams have a positive road DIFF on the road).  On the flip side the Suns are off a home win and have been horrible in this situation with a 4-16 SU record off a win, 1-9 SU at home. Phoenix also has the 4th worst home differential in the NBA at minus -2.3PPG. Boston has covered 14 of their last 20 on the road off a win and should get a double digit win here. 

We are going to play OVER in the OKC Thunder @ Portland Trailblazers game. The current Total on this game is hovering around 219 total points which is 8-points higher than the league average but we still feel there is enough value for an OVER wager. These two teams are both in the top 10 of the league in terms of pace of play and both are in the top half of the NBA in offensive efficiency ratings. OKC may be 10th in defensive efficiency ratings but Portland is 4th worst. In their last four games the Thunder have scored 109 or more points in every game and they've given up 105 or more in three of the four. Portland is allowing an average of 111PPG their last five games with opponents hitting over 45% from the field against them. There will be some fantastic guard play tonight with Lillard, McCollum and Russell Westbrook on the court and we expect a fast paced high scoring affair. BET OVER!

PLAY ON: Washington Wizards (-1.5) over Utah Jazz, 5PM ET – Washington is in a great spot here as they are off an upset loss to Philly and should bounce back in a big way at home (10-2 SU this year off a loss and playing at home). Utah on the other hand is off a road win. Washington has been near unbeatable at home with wins in 19 of their last 20 and the lone L came against the East leading Cavaliers. The Wiz have an average home point differential of +6PPG which is one of the better numbers in the league. Utah has been solid on the road all season long with a +2PPG differential but they are just 3-8 ATS their last 11 away from home. Washington has covered 4 of their last 5 at home against a team with a winning road record and have covered 7 of their last 9 off a loss. Play Washington today!

ASA #857 Brooklyn Nets (+10) @ Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET - The Nuggets are off a game last night in Sacramento which resulted in a 16-point road loss. They shot 44% for game which isn’t horrible but they didn’t play much defense, allowing the Kings to hit 52% from the field, 50% from the beyond the arc. Denver is just 2-10 SU (4-8 ATS) when playing without rest this season with an average loss margin of 9PPG. Because of the higher altitude in Denver the schedule makers typically don't schedule the Nuggets to play at home the second night of a back to backs. In fact, it's only happened 12 times since the start of the 2014 season and the Nuggets are a pathetic 1-11 SU & ATS in those games. Brooklyn is playing better even though it hasn’t translated to a ton of wins but they have covered 3 of their last five games and have a negative differential of -6PPG which is nearly 3-points better than their season differential. Of their last 9 losses, none have come by more than 9-points or tonight’s spread. We’re not sure how Denver is a favorite of this size when their defense is allowing over 51% shooting their last five games and even the All-Star break didn’t fix that. Brooklyn clearly isn’t a great defensive team but the Nuggets are last in the league in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.134 points per possession. In the lone meeting this season the Nets did win at home by 5-points which is 6th straight time they’ve beaten Denver. Grab the points with Brooklyn. 

PLAY OVER 212.5 CELTICS @ BULLS - We will play OVER in the Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls game tonight. The Celtics played last night and clearly when they play games without rest their defense suffers. When playing the second night of a back to back the Celtics have an 8-4 OVER record and they allow an average of 120PPG. In their last eight games in this scheduling situation they are 8-0 OVER with the average total points in those games being 225PPG. Even the Bulls offense, that averages just 1.071 points per possession, should score points against a fatigued Boston defense that ranks in the bottom half of the NBA in defensive efficiency rankings. Boston is going to score here too as they have one of the better offenses in the league averaging 108.5PPG with the 7th most efficient offense in the NBA. The Bulls defense (or lack of) has allowed 107 or more points in 9 of their last ten games, and most recently allowed 117, 115 and 123 against three similar teams to Boston. C's over streak of 10-2 their last 12 on the road while Bulls over in 7 of their last ten at home against a team with a +.500 record. 

PLAY ON: OKC THUNDER (-7) over NY Knicks, 9:30PM ET - Tonight we love the opportunity to play against a bad team (NY Knicks) off a big upset win, playing on the road, against a superior team (OKC) which is off a loss. New York beat the San Antonio Spurs at home on Sunday which makes them just 7-20 SU their last 27 games and puts them in a bet against situation, as they are 1-6 ATS their last seven when off a win. New York is just 9-18 SU on the road this season and they have an average point differential of minus -5.1PPG which ranks in the bottom 12 teams in the league. On the flip side the Thunder are off a blowout loss (7-3-1 ATS at home off a loss) in Washington where the team missed 24 consecutive shots, a NBA record. Russell Westbrook struggled with just 17 points but a lot of the Thunders poor play was the fact they were coming off a huge game versus Golden State. The Thunder are 19-8 SU at home this year, 13-4 their last seventeen. OKC has also covered 11 of fourteen at home against sub .500 teams which tells us they win by larger margins. Easy call with OKC at home tonight over the NY Knicks. 

PLAY OVER 217 Sacramento Kings @ LA Lakers, Tuesday 10:35PM ET - Our play tonight is OVER in the Sacramento Kings @ L.A. Lakers game. Pace is clearly one of the first things to look at when betting Over/Unders in the NBA and the current numbers for each team support a faster paced game tonight. The Kings on the season are one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA (4th slowest) but in their last five games they are averaging more possessions per game and rank 14th fastest. The Lakers have been one of the faster paced teams all season (6th) but in their last five games they are 2nd at 103.1 possessions per game. Over the course of their last five games the Kings are averaging 107PPG while the Lakers check in at 112PPG. While the Kings have been better defensively than the Lakers over their recent stretch, L.A. has allowed 114PPG. OK, so we have pace what about scoring? Well both of these teams rank in the bottom 7 of the league in field goal percentage defense against so both should make plenty of shots. Both teams have 5-1 OVER streaks as the Kings have gone OVER the number in 5 of their last six on the road while the Lakers have gone OVER in 5 of their last six anywhere. The play here is OVER the Total!

PLAY  ON: WASHINGTON WIZARDS (-5) over Oklahoma City Thunder, 7PM ET - We're going to fade OKC here and play on a hot Washington team at home. The Thunder are very good at home but not nearly as good when on the road with a 12-16 SU record. In fact, the Thunder have a -5.5 average point differential away from home with is in the bottom third of the NBA.  Washington on the other hand is in the top 10 in home point differential at +5.5PPGand they stand 23-7 SU on their home court. The Wiz are 18-1 SU their last 19 at home and the lone loss was in OT to the Cavaliers and only 2 of those home wins were by less than 5-points. Shooting will play a major role tonight as OKC shoots just 43.6% on the road this season compared to Washington who hits nearly 49% at home. The Thunder are coming off a couple huge emotional games after beating Cleveland at home then losing to the Warriors on Saturday so they should be a little flat on the road in Washington. OKC is just 5-7 ATS on the road this year off a loss so that's not a concern for us here. Wizard come into tonight on 2 days rest and have covered 4 of their last five in that scheduling situation, plus they are 16-5 ATS their last 21 at home. Lay it!

PLAY ON: SACRAMENTO KINGS (-3.5) over New Orleans Pelicans - We like the Sacramento Kings at home over the visiting New Orleans Pelicans and expect a double digit win by the host. New Orleans is 7-18 SU on the road this season with a negative point differential of -5.3PPG which is in the bottom half of the league. So much of what the Pelicans do is reliant on center Anthony Davis who is coming off a 42 point, 13 rebound and 7 assist game against Minnesota the other night but he’ll have his hands full tonight with fellow Kentuckian DeMarcus Cousins. Prior to their road win the other night in Minnesota the Pelicans had lost 5 straight away from home and three of those losses were by 7+ points. New Orleans is also just 7-13 SU when coming off a win this season and have failed to cover 5 straight games in that role. Sacramento is 11-15 SU at home which isn’t great but they’ve won 3 of their last four at home and all 3 wins came against quality teams (Atlanta, Boston and Golden State). Cousins is good when he’s motivated as he will be today facing Davis. Earlier this season the Kings beat the Pelicans on this floor by 8 as a 6-point chalk. Lay it again!

514 Dallas Mavericks (-6) over Orlando Magic, 9PM ET - We like the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over the visiting Orlando Magic. These two teams are trending in opposite directions as the Mavericks got off to a slow start to the season but have now won 10 of their last 15 games. Included in that streak is a 5-1 run their last six home games with all of those victories coming by more than today's spread. Orlando on the other hand is in a funk to say the least with a 4-15 SU record their last 19 games. Included in that run is a 2-9 SU road record and the majority of those road defeats were in blowout fashion. Looking at differentials we find the Mavs have an average point differential of +1PPG their last five games while the Magic are a negative -10.8PPG their last five. Orlando has the 4th worst road point differential at -7PPG and rank near the bottom of the league in road offensive efficiency and DEFF. The Mavs have covered 8 straight at home and get a double digit win again today!

Tonight we like UNDER in the San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons game. Pace or tempo are critical aspects when handicapping Totals and tonight we have 6th (Spurs) and 7th (Pistons) slowest paced teams in the NBA squaring off. The average total points scored per game is 210 and the number on tonight's game is hovering around that total even though we have two of the slowest paced teams in the league. While San Antonio is one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA at 1.128 points per possession the Pistons are 20th in that same category at 1.067PPP. Defense is another story though as both rank in the top 7 in points allowed per possession. Two teams that play slow and great defense and only one that is better than average in scoring means a very low scoring game tonight. A similar team to Detroit is Memphis and the Spurs just played the Grizzlies and totaled 163 points. The last time these two opponents squared off was back in November and that game ended with 182 total points. Tremendous value with an UNDER bet here. 

PLAY ON: Dallas Mavericks +4.5 over Utah Jazz, 8:35PM ET - Tonight we play on the Dallas Mavericks at home plus the points over the Utah Jazz. Utah is off a blowout win last night in New Orleans and are facing a rested Mavs team off a pair of losses including a home loss to the Blazers most recently. When playing without rest the Jazz are 7-5 SU on the year but they are just 1-6-1 ATS their last eight in that scheduling situation. Prior to their two game losing streak the Mavericks had won 6 of eight games and one of those losses was at home against the Jazz by 5-points in OT. Dallas is 8-9 SU at home off a loss this year but they've covered 7 o their last nine in that situation and 7 straight home covers overall in any role. The dog is also 4-1 last five meetings and Dallas has dominated the Jazz on this court for years. Dallas is playing much better of late and we expect a home win here by the Mavs. 

PLAY ON: Phoenix Suns (+9) over Memphis Grizzlies, 8PM ET - We like the spot to play on the Phoenix Suns plus the points over the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizz are in an unfamiliar role tonight as a 9-point chalk which is the largest pointspread they've been favored by all season long. Memphis has some other scheduling dynamics going against them here as they are off a huge win over the Spurs and have Golden State next on the schedule. Not to mention they recently beat the Suns by 19 in Phoenix. I watched that game live the Grizzlies hit a franchise record 16 3-pointers while making 57% from beyond the arc. Don't expect a repeat performance as the Grizzlies are the 21st worst 3-point shooting team in the NBA. Memphis has a below average home point differential in the NBA at +2.4PPG and now they're being asked to cover near double digits in this scheduling situation? No way! Phoenix hasn't been bad on the road lately (4 straight covers) with a 5-point loss at New Orleans, 2-point win at Sacramento, 7-point loss at Denver and a pair of wins in Toronto and New York. The Suns will be focused here after their embarrassing loss to Memphis just a few days ago. Grab the points.

PLAY ON: OKC THUNDER - We successfully played on the OKC Thunder yesterday at home in their win over Portland but today we will turn around and play against them. From a scheduling standpoint, this is a bad spot for the Thunder having just played at home yesterday while the Pacers were at home resting. This is also the Thunder’s 3rd game in a four-day span. OKC has been great at home this season but haven’t played as well on the road where they are 12-15 SU on the season with an average point differential of minus -5.6PPG which is the bottom half of the league in that category. When playing without rest the Thunder are 3-7 SU this year with a differential average of -5PPG. On the flip side the Pacers are playing lights out right now and are on a 6-game winning streak, including 3 straight at home. Indiana is 19-6 SU at home this year, 8-1 their last 9 and have the 10th best home point differential in the NBA of +5.8PPG. After a slow start and dealing with several key injuries the Pacers are finally living up to expectations and this is a perfect spot to play on them at home laying a marginal number. 

ASA PLAY ON: @Oklahoma City Thunder (-4.5) over Portland Trailblazers, 3PM ET - Play on the OKC Thunder minus the points over the Portland Trailblazers. The Blazers are not a good road team where they are just 8-18 SU on the season with an average point differential of minus -5.9PPG which is 8th worst in the NBA. The Blazers are 1-3 SU their last four road games and two of those defeats were at Charlotte and Philadelphia who are not as good as the Thunder team they’ll face today. OKC is clearly not as good as they were last season but they still enjoy a 17-7 SU home record this season with an average point differential of +6.7PPG which is 8th best in the NBA. The Thunder are even better at home when it comes to the West, having won 13 of 15 this season and 7 straight by an average of 14PPG. The Thunder have covered 4 of the last five meetings here against the Blazers and with Portland’s guard Damian Lillard struggling with his shooting stroke (under 40% last 5 from field, 32% from beyond the arc) right now this is a perfect spot to fade the Blazers and play on the Thunder. OKC by double digits!

PLAY ON: HOUSTON ROCKETS (-6.5) over Chicago Bulls, 8PM ET - We like the Houston Rockets at home over the Chicago Bulls tonight. Much has been made about the Bulls poor team chemistry right now with Jimmy Butler, D-Wade and Rajon Rondo and this is certainly a team with some problems behind the scenes. Granted they have won two straight game but a lot has to do with a favorable schedule as they beat the 76ers at home then won in Oklahoma City on Wednesday. The Bulls shot an uncharacteristic 60% from the field in that game which was WELL above their season average of just 43.9% which is 3rd worst in the NBA. Chicago also caught the Thunder off of 2 HUGE games against the Cavaliers and Spurs on the road and were playing the 2nd night of a back to back. On the flip side the Rockets should have some extra motivation here as they are coming off an upset loss at home last night to the Atlanta Hawks. Houston is the 6th best shooting team in the NBA at 46.5% but last night they struggled from the field hitting just 37.6% of their shots against a Hawks defense that is 8th in the NBA in opponents FG% against. The Bulls are 18th in that same defensive category. The Rockets have the 3rd best home point differential in the NBA at +9.8PPG. Houston is 14-3 SU off a loss, 5-1 at home and they have won 11 of 12 games this season when playing without rest. In fact, the Rockets 11 wins when playing without rest have come by an average of  13PPG. Lay the points!

PLAY UNDER WARRIORS @ CLIPPERS, 10:35PM ET - Tonight we'll play UNDER 228 in the Golden State Warriors @ L.A. Clippers game. Right now I'm guessing you're not a fan of this wager considering these two teams just met last Saturday with the Warriors winning 144-98. Now Golden State is the BEST shooting team in the NBA at 50% from the field and they make 39% of their 3-point attempts. So it was abnormal that they made 62% of their FG attempts in the last meeting with the Clippers and 17 3-pointers which is 5 more than their season average. What also supports our thinking here is the fact the Clippers have a top 8 defense in terms of overall shooting percentage defense and 3-point percentage D. L.A. coach Doc Rivers has reminded his players just how embarrassing that loss was and you can bet they'll be much more focused on the defensive end of the court tonight. Golden State averages 5 less points per game on the road compared to at home and allow less too. The Clippers at home average 203 total points per game and are one of just 6 teams that allow less than 100PPG on their home court. These two teams are two of the 12 best defensive efficiency ratings teams in the league with the Warriors #1 allowing just 1.036 points per possession. The number on tonight's game is ridiculously high and the value lies with UNDER. In the last 10 meetings only 2 have resulted with more points than the number set on tonight's game. BET UNDER!

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (ML wager) over Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET - We will play on the Memphis Grizzlies at the Denver Nuggets tonight. The Nuggets are off a game last night in Los Angeles and the final score isn't really a good indicator of just how poorly they played. They shot just 38% for the first three quarters of the game, then gave up 39 points in the final stanza to the Lakers. Denver is just 2-7 SU when playing without rest this season with an average loss margin of 6PPG. Because of the higher altitude in Denver the schedule makers typically don't schedule the Nuggets to play at home the second night of a back to backs. In fact, it's only happened 11 times since the start of the 2014 season and the Nuggets are a pathetic 1-10 SU & ATS in those games. Memphis is playing better now since they've gotten healthy and have a 13-12 SU road record with an average point differential of -1PPG when away from home. That average point differential is 8th best in the NBA. The Grizz have won 3 of their last five road games and have7-3 spread record when laying 3.5 or less points this season. Denver obviously relies on their offense to win games and will try to push tempo here. The Nuggets are just 1-6 SU their last seven games when they don't score 120 or more points and Memphis has allowed over 120 just once all season and that was early on when they had multiple injuries. The Grizzlies have the 4th best defensive efficiency rating and they'll contain the high-octane offense of Denver. Take Memphis here.

PLAY ON: DETROIT PISTONS (-7) over New Orleans Pelicans, 7:35PM ET - We successfully played on the Pelicans last night in Toronto but must go against them here in Detroit tonight. We really felt the Pistons would snap out of their mid-season slump a few games back when they came off a 4-day break but it didn’t happen as they’ve lost 2 straight since then and 3 in a row. Their last two losses came against a red-hot Miami team and at the Boston Celtics. Now Detroit gets to host a Pelicans team off an overtime road loss in Toronto last night and if there is a time they’ll get a big win, it’s tonight. New Orleans just 6-16 SU on the road with an average differential of minus -5.2PPG which is nearly what tonight’s spread is. Detroit is 12-10 SU at home this year with a positive differential of +3.5PPG which is in the top half of the league. The Pistons are 6-5 SU & ATS at home when coming off a loss with an average win margin of 5PPG while the Pelicans are just 3-7 ATS when playing without rest with an average loss margin over 5PPG. New Orleans really struggle shooting and scoring on the road as they hit just 43% from the field which ties into their worst road offensive efficiency rating in the NBA. Given the circumstances for the Pistons we expect them to get a double-digit home win here.

PLAY ON: SAN ANTONIO SPURS (-9) over OKC Thunder, 8:35PM ET - Tonight we will side with the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over the visiting OKC Thunder. On Sunday we gave 8.5 points with Cleveland at home over the Thunder so laying 1 more point here makes sense. Especially considering the situation with the Spurs off an embarrassing home loss to the Mavericks. The Spurs are 77-54 (59%) ATS since the start of the 2011 season when coming off a loss which is the 2nd best overall record in the NBA. Since the start of last season they have a 17-11 ATS record or 61% which is the best record in the league over that span of time. This season the Spurs have been especially nasty at home off a loss with a 5-2 record but those 5 wins have come by an average of 24PPG and includes 3 wins by 28+ points. OKC is going to suffer the effects of the loss of Enes Kanter for some games to come and can't keep pace with a much deeper San Antonio team that can overcome the loss of Gasol. The Thunder have recently played three road games against similar foes to the Spurs and lost by 16 in Cleveland, 21 in Golden State an22 at the LA Clippers. We don't use 'revenge' in the NBA very often but the Thunder did eliminate the Spurs from the playoffs last year and this is their first meeting this season.  Since the start of last season the Spurs have a home point differential of +11.3PPG while the Thunder are in the bottom third of the league in road differential (since Durant left) at -5.3PPG. It seems like a big number but in reality it's not. Lay it!

OVER 207.5 Memphis Grizzlies @ Phoenix Suns, 10:35PM ET - We will wager OVER in the Memphis Grizzlies @ Phoenix Suns game tonight. The league average for total points scored in an NBA game this year is 210PPG. Memphis and Utah are the only two teams in the league to average less than 100PPG offensively and defensively. But the Grizzlies have scored more than 100 points in 7 of their last eight games and have the 7th most efficient offense in the NBA over their last five contests. Phoenix wants to play fast and are currently the 3rd fastest paced team in the NBA on the season. In their last five games they have the 3rd most efficient offense averaging 1.165 points per possession. Another important factor here is defense and while the Grizzles play some, the Suns don't. Phoenix allows an average of 112PPG and 1.118PPP with the 5th worst defensive efficiency rating in the NBA. The Suns have had just 9 games this year with a total set of 210 or less and those games have a 6-3 over record. Memphis has played over in 5 straight on the road against teams with losing home records and Suns on perfect 6-0 over run at home. BET OVER!

PLAY ON: Charlotte Hornets (-1) over @NY Knicks, 7:35PM ET - Today we play on the Charlotte Hornets over the NY Knicks. New York has plenty of distractions right now as trade rumors for Melo heat up, and this comes shortly after the D-Rose issue.  The Knicks are just 4-14 SU their last 18 games and have lost 7 of their last 8 at home. Charlotte is off a disappointing home loss to the Warriors, in which they actually led going into the final stanza. Prior to that game they lost to a red hot Wizards team and now step way down in class against the Knicks tonight.  The Hornets are just 8-14 SU away from home BUT they have an average point differential of just -1.1 PPG which is 10th best in the NBA. The Knicks on the other hand are 12-11 SU at home but their average point differential is -.1PPG which is 22nd out  of 30 teams. These two teams are very similar offensively averaging 1.082 points per possession which is right around the league average. Where these two clubs are drastically different is the defensive end of the court as the Knicks rank 25th in the league in defensive efficiency while the Hornets are 6th best in the same category. The visitor has covered 7 of the last 10 meetings and the last time they met on this floor the Hornets were 2-point favorites so we are getting additional value tonight. Take Charlotte!

PLAY OVER 210.5: Indiana Pacers @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 8PM ET - We are playing OVER in the Indiana Pacers at Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.  There are a few indicators that suggest this is going to be a very high scoring game. Let's start with the Pacers defense, or should I say, lack of defense. Indiana has allowed 11 of their last 14 opponents to scored 100 or more points against them and 8 of those 14 have scored 108 or more. In their last six road contests the Pacers have given up an average of 114PPG. In terms of defensive efficiency ratings the Pacers are 15th in the league or average allowing 1.083 points per possession.  Indiana 29th out of 30 teams in the league in opponents offensive rebounds per game. That's a huge factor here as the Wolves are the 6th best offensive rebounding team in the league which translates to some easy opportunities at the rim. As far as Minnesota is concerned, defensively they are the 23rd worst team in the league in DEFF allowing 1.102 points per possession. The Wolves have allowed an average of 111PPG their last four outings but have scored an average of 110PPG in those same four games.  Minnesota will have problems slowing down a Pacers offense that has scored 100 or more points in 8 of their last ten games and 106 or more in 6 of their last ten. In their last five games both teams are shooting above their season averages with both above 48%. The OVER has cashed 7 of the last ten meetings between these two teams in Minny. BET OVER!

PLAY ON: DENVER NUGGETS - Our best NBA play for the night is on the Denver Nuggets at home minus the points over the Utah Jazz. As far as scheduling is concerned the Nuggets are in a great spot here as they catch the Jazz off a HUGE division game last night versus Oklahoma City, and having to travel and play without rest. Not to mention they'll be in the higher altitude of Denver which magnifies the fatigue factor against Utah, AND they are playing their 4th game in just five days (teams are 4-9 SU in that situation this year). This will be the fourth meeting of the season between these two teams with the home team winning each game. Denver has won 3 straight home games but did suffer a loss in their last outing at Minnesota so they'll be focused here. The Nuggets are shooting nearly 52% their last five games and they'll find plenty of open looks against a tired Jazz team. Utah has played well this season but they are 0-6 ATS their last six away from home. We predict a double digit win by the home team here. 

PLAY OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (+5.5) over @UTAH JAZZ, 9PM ET - We like the OKC Thunder plus the points over the host Utah Jazz. This is a great spot to play on the Thunder as they last played on Wednesday which means a full 4 days rest and practice time which is hard to come by in a busy NBA schedule.   OKC is also coming off a pair of road losses at the Clippers and Warriors so they should be properly focused and motivated here. Utah also beat this Thunder team at home in mid-December by 20-points but OKC was off a game the night before in Portland and they ended up shooting just 36% from the field and allowed the Jazz to hit over 58%. What's significant about those shooting percentages is that the Thunder shoot nearly 46% on the season (12th best) while the Jazz shoot 46.6% which is 8th best but still not the 58% they made in the last meeting. So we expect the law of averages to even out in this game. These two teams are relatively close in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency ratings but the Thunder have played the 8th hardest schedule in the NBA while the Jazz have played the 17th. With the added rest, revenge, schedule discrepancy and a return to normal shooting percentages we like OKC to get the cash easily in this one. 

ASA  We will play on the Minnesota Timberwolves (-4) over the Denver Nuggets, 7PM ET. This is a great spot to fade the Nuggets who are off a big win last night in Denver over the LA Clippers and now have to travel to face a rested Timberwolves club. Denver has won 4 of their last five games but those W's came against a 22-21 Pacers team, 16-31 Lakers team, 18-27 Magic and a injury depleted Clippers team so we're hardly impressed. On the road the Nuggets have an average point differential of minus -4.3PPG and shoot less than 44% as a team. A big part of Denver's offense comes on the glass but that gets negated here against a Wolves team that has the 3rd best defensive rebounding team in the NBA. Another decisive advantage the Wolves have working for them is how bad the Nuggets defense is, ranking last in defensive efficiency ratings and 3rd to last in points allowed per game. Minnesota is 9-13 SU at home and have a positive differential of +2.4PPG which is right around the league average. They have won 3 straight at home over the Mavs, Rockets and Thunder and are playing better on their home court with 4 straight covers. There is also a small revenge factor here as the Nuggets beat the Wolves at home recently by just 2-points. Lay the points with Minnesota in this one!

We like Boston at home minus the points over the visiting Portland Trailblazers. Portland is coming off a game last night and are playing their 4th straight road game in a 6-day span. On the flip side the Celtics have had a few days’ rest and have a clear scheduling advantage in this one. When playing without rest the Blazers are just 3-6 SU and ATS.  The Blazers starting backcourt of Lillard and McCollum both logged over 35 minutes last night and they’ll have a tough time keeping up with the Celtics Isaiah Thomas who has been outstanding of late for Boston averaging nearly 35PPG his last 9 games. The Blazers have one of the worst road point differentials in the NBA at -6.3PPG and have not traveled well this season. Boston had won 7 straight games at home before suffering an upset loss to the Knicks in their last game. That works for us here as the Celtics are 12-4 SU off a loss this season, 7-1 at home. Five of Boston’s last 7 home wins have come by 9 or more points so we’re not intimated by the spread in this game. Lay the points!

PLAY ON: SACRAMENTO KINGS - We like the Sacramento Kings at home tonight over the visiting Indiana Pacers.  The Pacers are 6-1 their last seven games overall and off a home win over the Pelicans on Monday. Prior to that they played in London and were blown out by the Nuggets. With a closer look at the Pacers recent games we find they haven't beaten a team with a winning record and those 6 wins came against teams with a combined 99-155 record on the season. Indiana plays MUCH better at home than they do on the road which is a big part of our reasoning tonight. At home the Pacers have the 9th best home point differential in the NBA BUT on the road they have the 3rd worst at minus -7.7PPG. As far as the Kings are concerned tonight is a very big game for them as they are playing their last home game of a 7 game home stand and must go on the road after tonight. The Kings went just 1-5 SU in this recent stretch of games but they lost to: OKC, Cavs, Warriors, Clippers and Heat.  And all of those games were relatively close losses. Even with the Heat included in that stretch those teams have a combined record of 130-79. In fact, the Kings have played the leagues 9th hardest schedule while the Pacers have played the 27th easiest. Sacramento is 4-1 ATS as a favorite less than 3.5 points while the Pacers are 2-7 ATS in that same price range as a dog. Take Sacramento here!

UNDER 204 Utah Jazz @ Phoenix Suns, 9PM ET - We like UNDER 204 in the Utah Jazz at Phoenix Suns game. Let’s start with the basics. The average total points scored in an NBA game right now is just a shade lower than 210 total points. The number on that game is obviously lower than that but not enough in our opinion based on current statistics. First, the Jazz are the slowest paced team in the league at 91.2 possession per game and second, they allow just 1.039 points per possession #1 in the NBA. The Suns on the other hand are the 3rd fastest paced team at 99.5PPP. BUT, in their last five games the Suns have averaged just 92.5 possessions per game which is the 3rd slowest average in the NBA. The Jazz have held 7 of their last ten opponents to less than 92PPG which includes a game against Brooklyn who is very similar to Phoenix and the Suns when they allowed just 86 points in the previous meeting with Phoenix (177 total pts). The dominate team (Utah) will dictate tempo here just as they’ve done in the past four meetings on this court where they’ve averaged 185 total points per game. Phoenix is coming off two games in the higher altitude of Mexico City and may be a little fatigued here too. Easy bet UNDER!

PLAY ON: WASHINGTON WIZARDS - This is going to be a shorter than usual analysis as we are in a time crunch on Saturday with a deep college card and the NFL games. We normally wouldn't lay this many points with Washington but the situation is warranted. The Wizards are off a loss at Boston which will have them focused for the 76ers tonight. Not to mention the 76ers have won 3 straight so the Wiz won't take them for granted. Philly has had problems playing without rest this season and a lot of that is from a minutes restriction on their best overall player Joel Embiid who will not play today. Philly is 1-6 SU this year when playing the second night of a back-to-back with an average loss margin of 13PPG. Washington on the other hand is rested having last played January 11th. Washington was recently a -11.5 point home favorite over Chicago who is much better than Philly so we're not intimidated by the spread today. The Wiz have covered 7 of their last eight at home over teams with sub .500 record. Lay the points with Washington!

#705 Boston Celtics (+2.5) over Atlanta Hawks, 8PM ET - Today  we are going to play on the Boston Celtics plus the points over the Atlanta Hawks. Atlanta comes into this game red hot and on an 7 game winning streak! Wait what? Yep, we're playing against the Hawks and here's why. Yes, the Hawks have won 7 straight but only ONE of those wins game against a team with a winning record and that was home against the Spurs in OT. The other 6 wins came against teams with a combined winning record of 88-150 so we're really NOT impressed with Atlanta's current run. Not to mention the Hawks are 10-7 SU at home but have an average point differential of just +.4PPG which is 20th worst in the NBA. Now they face a Boston team that is 12-9 SU away from home this season with the 5th best road point differential of +1.9PPG and a team that has won 11 of their last 14 overall. The Celtics have dropped two straight road games but they came at Toronto and Cleveland who are the two best teams in the East right now. Prior to that the C's had won 4 straight away from home.  We like Boston to get a win tonight on the road in Atlanta.

PLAY ON: TORONTO RAPTORS -4.5 OVER BOSTON CELTICS, TUES 7:35PM ET - There is a HUGE Atlantic Division showdown Tuesday night when the Raptors host the Celtics in Toronto. What a great spot to play on the Raptors, who at first look, seem to be struggling with a 2-5 record over their last seven games but scheduling has a lot to do with that. Toronto came off a 6 game road trip, played one game at home, then went to Chicago, then came home the following night only to lose to the red hot Rockets by 7-points. Toronto is 12-6 SU at home and has the 3rd best overall home point differential of +10.4PPG.  Those numbers aren't a fluke as this same roster was 32-9 SU at home last year with an average point differential of +6.6PPG, 6th best in the NBA.  The Raptors respond well when coming off a SU loss as they are 9-4 SU and ATS in that role this season.  Boston has won 4 straight games but all of those were at home and now must travel to one of the toughest venues in the NBA. The Celtics have a 12-8 SU road record this year but a closer look shows they are just 1-5  SU their last six road games when playing a team with a current winning record and the lone win came in Memphis in OT. When playing a division opponent the Raptors are 15-6 ATS dating back to last year and they've cashed 4 of the last five meetings with Boston. With just 1 game separating these two teams in the Atlantic Division and the Raps coming off a pair of losses it's a perfect time to 'buy' Toronto at home!

PLAY ON:  #509 NY Knicks (+5.5) @ Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET - It's not often that 'revenge' factors into NBA games but this is certainly one of them with New York traveling to Milwaukee to face the Bucks. These same two teams just met a few nights back in New York with the Bucks pulling out a 1-point win on a last second jumper by Bucks sensation Giannis Antetokounmpo. Hidden in that loss though is the fact the Knicks played great basketball for 75% of the game, led by as many as 16 points before a collapse in the fourth quarter. Despite the fact the Knicks were the home team they were outscored by 15 from the free throw line by Milwaukee but Melo picked up the slack for New York by scoring 30 points. Let's not forget the Knicks were without Kristaps Porzingis who is averaging 20PPG, 7.8RPG and 1.3 APG. Porzingis practiced yesterday and our reports say he's likely to play tonight. Even if he doesn't we like the Knicks plus the points. New York clearly has a talented roster but at times don't play up to their potential. The Knicks 5-1 ATS record their last six games against teams with winning records supports this theory. In this scenario we feel a focused, motivated team gets a solid cover here. The young Bucks have just 1 spread win their last five games following a SU win and we don't see them getting a cover here. 

UNDER 208 HAWKS @ MAGIC - We have a contrarian wager for you on Wednesday night with the UNDER in the Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic game tonight. Recent trends by both teams have pushed this number higher than it should be and the value lies with the UNDER. In their last five games both teams are playing faster than season averages with more possessions per game and scores have been higher. But when you look at the whole this Total has clearly been set too high tonight. These same two teams just me three weeks back and the oddsmakers had a Total set of 202 which is considerably less than tonight's number. Granted in the last meeting these two teams combined for 251 total points but that was clearly an aberration and abnormal. Prior to the most recent meeting, in regulation, these two teams had combined for 203 or less points in 8 straight meetings. When these two teams have played within the Division this season they have a combined UNDER record of 4-11 and we expect that trend to continue as defense will dictate on both ends of the court. With public money flowing in on the OVER and wiseguys betting UNDER this is an easy call. UNDER!

#506 @Chicago Bulls (ML) over Milwaukee Bucks, 7PM ET - We've had this game circled for a couple weeks now after the Bucks beat the Bulls on consecutive days Dec 15th and 16th. True revenge is a rare commodity in the NBA but it will factor in here as Chicago was beaten badly (69-95) at home in the back end of that two game set. The Bulls are a respectable 10-6 SU at home this season with the 13th best home point differential of +3.6PPG. Milwaukee is 5-9 SU on the road this season and has some impressive efficiency statistics but this just isn't a good spot for them having played in Minnesota last night and having to travel to Chicago today to face this hungry Bulls team. Chicago also played yesterday, and lost in Indiana but now they are back home where they are 6-3 SU off a loss. The Bucks are 1-5 ATS when playing the second night of a B2B and have lost those games by an average of nearly 7PPG. When these two teams last met on Dec 16th on this same court the Bulls were favored by 5 points so you can see for yourself the added value of today's spread. Chicago has covered 7 of the last nine meetings with Milwaukee on this court. Lay it!

ASA PLAY ON: #717 Philadelphia 76ers (+11) @ Denver Nuggets, 9PM ET - We are on the Philadelphia 76ers plus the double digit points at Denver on Friday evening. We were in the Philly papers yesterday and they basically came out and said last night's game in Utah was meaningless and they were focused on winning in Denver tonight. So they sat their best young player Joel Embiid and another starter Gerald Henderson. Both are expected in the lineup tonight and make the 76ers a vastly better ball club. The back to back nights shouldn't affect the Sixers too much tonight either as 10 players logged 14+ minutes last night. Other than last night the 76ers have been playing decently on the road where they've gone 2-4 SU their last six. Again, last night they lost by 17 points but in their previous 3 road losses they lost by 5, 7 and just 2 points. The 76ers road differentials this season are much improved over last season's even though they have just 2 wins away from home on the year. Denver is improving with wins in 5 of their last seven games but this isn't a familiar role for them laying double digits as it hasn't happened any other game this season. The largest number the Nuggets have been favored by all season is 8-points at home over Dallas and they won that game by 10-points. The Nuggets have won 2 straight and have a much bigger game on deck when they go to Golden State on Monday evening. Denver also has the 11th worst average point differential at home in the NBA and allow teams to hit over 46% of their shots on their home court. Philly will keep this close throughout and get their 8th straight cover on this floor. Grab the points.

ASA play on: OVER 205 Dallas Mavericks @ L.A. Lakers, 10:35PM ET - We will play OVER in the Dallas Mavericks at L.A. Lakers game tonight. The Lakers just hosted a similar team to the Mavs in terms of pace of play the Utah Jazz and they combined for 203 total points. But the Mavericks don't play defense like the Jazz do who are one of the best defensive clubs in the league. In their game against the Jazz the Lakers starting backcourt of Nick Young and D'Angelo Russell combined for just 8 points, 20 less than their combined season average and we don't expect that to happen again here. The Lakers are one of the fastest paced teams in the league averaging 98.4 possessions per game and they average 104.4PPG. The Mavs are the lowest scoring team in the league at 94.8PPG but they'll have plenty of good looks tonight against a Laker D allowing 110.3PPG which is the 4th highest number in the NBA. Earlier this season when these two teams squared off they combined for 206 total points but tonight we feel they'll top 210+. 

PLAY ON: INDIANA PACERS Today we play on the Indiana Pacers plus the points over the Chicago Bulls. Chicago is coming off a game yesterday in San Antonio and they haven't played well  the second night of back to backs with three straight losses. While the Bulls dealing with a game yesterday and the distractions of the holiday, the Pacers are extremely well rested having last played Dec 22nd at home against the Celtics.  Indiana is 20-6-2 ATS the last 28 times they've played with 3 or more days rest which is the case tonight. The Pacers don't have great efficiency or point differentials on the season but in their last five games their point differential is just -.8PPG while the Bulls have a negative point differential of -7.2PPG their last five. Bulls just 1-7 ATS their last eight games overall and Pacers have covered 7 of last ten in the series. Take Indiana and whatever points are available.

PHOENIX SUNS +5.5 OVER MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES - Play on the Phoenix Suns plus the points over the host Minnesota Timberwolves. Thank you Vegas for continuing to make the Wolves over-valued and providing us with these moneymaking opportunities. Minny is just 10-16 ATS this season with a 3-10 SU home record. Minnesota has been favored in just 2 of their last eleven games and they failed to cover both of those two games. On the season they are 4-7 ATS when laying points. The Suns have been solid in this price range this season and you can make the argument they’ve been under-valued with an 8-4 ATS record when priced a dog of 5.5 points or less. The Suns have lost two straight but those L’s came against much better teams in the Spurs and Thunder and now step way down in talent. The Suns are 20-5-1 ATS their last 26 when coming off a spread loss. Phoenix didn’t shoot the ball well in their previous two outings but should find the range tonight against a Wolves team that is 28th in the league in field goal percentage defense allowed. Grab the points and Suns!

PLAY ON: ORLANDO MAGIC (-6) over Brooklyn Nets - 7PM ET

Tonight we like the Orlando Magic at home over the visiting Brooklyn Nets. This is a great spot to play on the Magic, off a home loss, and fade the Nets who are off a rare win. Brooklyn is 0-6 SU when coming off a win and they’ve lost those games by an average of 18PPG. In other words, this is a bad team that is content after a win and tend to let down. The Nets have lost 7 straight road games by an average of 17PPG and a big reason is their road defense which is atrocious. Brooklyn allows foes to hit nearly 49% of their field goal attempts when they are the visitor and they have the WORST defensive efficiency rating away from home. That’s significant here as the Magic have played extremely well offensively their last two games putting up 131 against a Hawks defense that ranks 5th in DEFF (defensive efficiency) and 108 points against the LA Clippers who are 6th in that same category. The Magic obviously found their ‘stroke’ offensively in those two games shooting over 58% against the Hawks and over 47% against the Clips. Now the Magic step WAY down tonight against a Nets D that gives up 114.5PPG (last in NBA). The Magic haven’t been great as a favorite this year but this is a fantastic spot to play on them at home as we feel they are trending up. PLAY ON ORLANDO MAGIC!

We like the OVER in the San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns tonight. Clearly the Suns will want to play fast as they are 2nd fastest paced teams in the league. They are also the 6th worst defensive efficiency team in the league and give up 113.2PPG which is 2nd to last in the league. Ironically, the Spurs recently played a very similar team to the Suns( in those same statistical categories) when they hosted the Brooklyn Nets and they put up 130 points. Phoenix and their opponents have combined for over 210 total points (tonight's Total) in 7 of their last eight games. San Antonio scores and allows more points per game on the road than they do at home and shoot remarkably well on the road at 48.1% (which works well against a Suns D that allows 48% at home).  The last three times the Spurs have faced the Suns they've scored 112+ points and the OVER 11-5 the last 16 meetings here. 

PLAY ON: #504 Toronto Raptors (-7.5) over Milwaukee Bucks - 7:35PM ET - The VALUE bet tonight is on the Toronto Raptors at home over the Milwaukee Bucks. These same two teams recently met in Milwaukee and the Raptors were -3.5 points in that game and won 105-99. Now Toronto is at home laying just a few more points than they were on the road. The Bucks are just 3-5 SU away from home this year where they have an average negative point differential of -3.9PPG. That's a big difference from their home differential of +4.5PPG. The Raptors have a tremendous home court advantage ranking 6th in the league last year in average point differential, 2nd this season at +12PPG. In their last six home games the Raptors have been especially ruthless going 5-1 SU and ATS with the lone loss coming to the Cavs. In those five wins the Raptors won by an average of 27PPG! Toronto has won 5 straight in this series, covering 4. Lay the points!

ASA PLAY ON: #501 Denver Nuggets (-3) @ Orlando Magic, 7PM ET - Our first play on Saturday in the NBA is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points on the road over the Orlando Magic. At first glance you have to wonder why the 8-15 Nuggets are laying points on the road but there is a reason for it and is an indicator for us to buy Denver. Orlando is in a bad scheduling situation here with this being the second night of a back to back and their 4th game in just 5 days. Teams historically don't do well in that situation winning just 37% of the time last regular season. The Magic will also be a little short handed here as starting center Biyombo and forward Vucevic are not expected to be in the lineup. 6th man Jeff Green is also questionable. You might say the Nuggets are without PG Emmanuel Mudiay but it's actually a blessing in disguise as Mudiay has been awful his last five games with the Nugs posting a net efficiency rating of -30.2 when he's been on the court. He shot just 28 percent in those 5 games averaging just 7.6PPG. In other words - no loss for Denver. Despite a losing overall road record the Nuggets are above average in road point differentials and efficiency differentials. Orlando on the other hand is below average in both of those same statistical categories. In fact, the Magic are 28th in the league in home efficiency differential at -6.1 (last is -7 so you get a better idea of how bad they've been at home this season). The chalk has covered 5 of the last six in this series and the Magic are on an 0-4 ATS run at home. 

PLAY ON: SACRAMENTO KINGS over NY Knicks, 10:35 ET - Tonight in the NBA we like the Sacramento Kings minus the points over the New York Knicks. The line on this game is offering tremendous value as these same two teams just met this past Sunday in New York with the Knicks winning 106-98 as a -1.5 point favorite. Now the Kings return home, play with revenge and have a line on the game that is a full 4-points less than what it should be. Sacramento kept that game close despite the fact they had a HORRENDOUS shooting night of just 32.3% from the field. A plus for the Kings in that contest though was Boogie Cousins 36 point, 12 rebound effort against a Knicks team that struggles defending good post players. Sacramento is 8th in the NBA in average points scored in the paint this season while the Knicks have the 19th worst defense in terms of points in the paint allowed per game. Bulls starting PG Derrick Rose could miss this game with back spasms and he put up 20 points and 6 assists in Sunday's meeting. The Kings are just 2-3 SU their last five at home but it was a brutal schedule against the league's best teams (Rockets, Thunder, Raptors, Clippers and Spurs). Now they step way down in class against a Knicks team that is 3-6 SU away this year with a negative point differential of -7.4PPG. Sacramento is 9-4 ATS against above .500 teams this season, 5-1 ATS at home.  The Kings are quietly playing solid basketball and have covered 8 of their last eleven. Take the home team here.

PLAY ON: CHICAGO BULLS +4.5 over San Antonio Spurs TNT 9:35PM ET - Tonight we side with the Chicago Bulls at home plus the points over the San Antonio Spurs. This is a solid spot to buy Chicago as they are off 3 straight losses which will have them extra focused and motivated tonight against a quality opponent. Despite their modest 11-10 SU record the Bulls have put up some very solid statistics and we rate them a top  10 team in the league. The Bulls are top 10 in offensive efficiency and rank just 2 spots behind the Spurs in defensive efficiency ratings. Chicago's overall efficiency differential is slightly worse than the Spurs who are 18-4 on the year. Another great comparison in how close these teams are statistically is their average overall point differential per game as the Spurs rank 6th in the NBA at plus +5PPG while the Bulls are 8th at plus + 3PPG.  San Antonio is coming off a road win in Minnesota as a 4-point favorite which is essentially the same line on tonight's game against a Bulls team that is much better than the Wolves.  The Bulls were recently a 2-point home dog to the Cavs who they beat by 6-points and the Cavs are ranked higher than the Spurs in our power ratings.  Chicago has covered 7 of their last ten at home and we expect them to snap the Spurs road win streak in the Windy City tonight. 

#714 10* @Milwaukee Bucks (-1.5) over Portland Trailblazers, 8PM ET - We like the Bucks at home over the visiting Portland Trailblazers. Good spot here for a home win by Milwaukee as they catch the Blazers off an upset road win in Chicago on Monday while the Bucks are off a disappointing 1-point home loss to the Spurs. Last season the Blazers had the largest home/road point differential in the NBA as they were especially good at home but poor on the road. This season the Blazers are better statistically in those categories but they are still a negative -3.5PPG when away from home. Portland is 5-6 SU on the road this year but in four of those road wins the opponent had less than a .500 record. Milwaukee is 7-5 SU at home on the season but they have the 10th best home point differential in the league at +5PPG. The Bucks are in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency ratings at home and top 10 in offensive efficiency on their own court. Milwaukee blew a game the other night when they had the Spurs down late but couldn't seal that home win. They had won 4 in a row which included a victory over Cleveland. The Bucks have covered 8 of the last ten meetings and will get a solid home win here tonight. 

ASA PLAY ON: #710 @New Orleans Pelicans (-5.5) over Memphis Grizzlies, 8PM ET - We like the New Orleans Pelicans at home over the Memphis Grizzlies. New Orleans is coming off back to back losses but it's understandable considering they faced the Clippers and Thunder. Now they'll be dialed in and focused for a very winnable game against a very short-handed Memphis team that already beat the Pelicans earlier this season. The Grizzlies are down to just 9 players on their bench and have some major minute guys out for their 3rd straight game. Role players step up for a game, sometimes two but there is a reason for them being role players and not starters. With their injuries the Grizz have turned to center Marc Gasol to carry the load and he's done so with 44 combined points his last two games. He won't have a big game here with Anthony Davis defending him or rotating over as the help defender in the low post. Not to mention the Grizzlies last two wins have come against the Magic and Lakers who obviously aren't the league's elite teams. New Olreans is 6-1 SU their last seven at home with the lone loss coming via the Clippers. The Pelicans should exploit a Grizzlies defense that is allowing opponents to shoot over 47% their last five games. Lay the points!

PLAY ON: #704 @Charlotte Hornets (-6) vs Minnesota TWolves, 7PM ET - Today we play ON the Charlotte Hornets over the visiting Minnesota Timberwolves. These same two teams just met a few weeks back with the Hornets winning by 7-points on the road as a 2-point chalk. Now they are laying just 6-point at home which is not a big enough of an adjustment by the oddsmakers. The Wolves are off a game last night in New York in which 4 of five starters played 30+ minutes so fatigue becomes a factor. Minnesota has been over-valued by Vegas all season long, hence the 6-13 ATS record overall and 2-8 SU road record. Charlotte has the much better efficiency differential ratings as they are top 10 in the NBA while the Wolves are 16th in the league in the same category. Minny is just 1-8 ATS their last nine versus teams with winning records and the Hornets have covered 5 of the last six meetings. We'll lay the points with Charlotte at home today.

OVER 209 Indiana Pacers @ Portland Trailblazers - 10PM ET

We will play OVER in the Indiana Pacers @ Portland Trailblazers game. These are two of the fastest paced teams in the league (Portland 7th, Indiana 9th) in terms of possessions per game and that's a solid base for our OVER wager. The Blazers average 109.7PPG on the season which is the third highest scoring average in the NBA. Indiana is 'average' or 15th in the league at 103.5PPG. Indiana isn't as efficient offensively as the Blazers but the Pacers will get their opportunities against a Portland defense that is LAST in the NBA in defensive efficiency ratings, allowing 1.141 points per possession. Indiana recently played a Nets team that is very similar to Portland in terms of pace and DEFF and that game ended with 215 total points and Indiana put up 118 of those without Paul George who is out tonight too. Portland has scored or allowed 111+ points in 11 of their last twelve games and in their last three contests they've combined with their opponents to total 244, 223 and 262 total points! When playing with 2 days rest this year the Pacers totaled 223 points in a game while the Blazers totaled 231 in a game in the same scheduling situation. Remember the league average for points scored in a game is 207 so asking these two teams to score a few more points isn't a stretch. Last season in two meetings these two combined for 213 and 234 total points. The play here is OVER!

PLAY ON: DETROIT PISTONS We like the Pistons plus the points over the Hornets on Tuesday and expect an outright win by the Pistons. Let's start with scheduling first in our analysis. This is a bad spot for Charlotte as they are coming off a game last night and this will be their 4th game in just a five day span. Not to mention the Hornets are off a win last night on the road in Memphis which will have them a little 'fat' for tonight's contest. Historically speaking teams playing their 4th game in five nights have won just 35% of the time the past two years. Detroit meanwhile comes into this game with several days rest AND are off a blowout loss in their previous game at Oklahoma City which will have them focused tonight. Don't be frightened off of this bet by the Pistons current road record of 1-8 SU as 5 of those eight losses have come against some of the best teams in the league. Charlotte is not in that category yet and they are in a bad spot here. Good spot to play on the Pistons!

PLAY ON: BOSTON CELTICS - We like the spot to play on the Boston Celtics minus the points at the Miami Heat. The 7-6 Celtics have gotten off to a slow start this season after going 48-34 a season ago. But a lot of that is due to a couple injuries to Al Horford and Jae Crowder who have missed 9 and 8 games each respectively. With those two back in the lineup the Celtics are starting to look like a better version of last year's squad that had the 8th best point differential in the NBA away from home. Boston has ripped off 3 straight road wins and 4 of their last five with the lone loss coming by a point in New Orleans. Even with their injuries the C's are 10th in the NBA in road point differential of +.2PPG. Miami on the other hand is just 2-6 SU at home this year and are clearly in a rebuilding phase with a younger roster. The Heat are 19th in the NBA in home efficiency differential and their lone two wins have come against the Bucks and Kings who have a combined losing record of 14-18. Boston is solid in this role as a small chalk with a 4-1 ATS record this year and are 5-2 SU this season when coming off a loss (to the Spurs). Celts have covered 5 of the last six on this court and will notch an 8+ point win here tonight. 

We will play UNDER in the LA Clippers @ Detroit Pistons game tonight. The league average total points scored per game in the NBA this season is 207.4PPG. Quite frankly we're surprised the number on this game is higher than 200 total points for several key reasons. Both of these teams rank in the bottom half of the league in pace of play as the Clippers average 96.7  possessions per game (16th) while the Pistons average 94.4PPP which is 23rd slowest. Defensively both are two of the best in the league when it comes to points per possession as the Pistons allow just 1.022 points per possession (4th best) and the Clippers give up just 1.004PPP which is 2nd best in the NBA. These same two teams met on Nov 7th in L.A. and that game had the Clippers winning 114-82 but combined they totaled just 158 field goal attempts which is well below the league average of 171 per game. The Clippers shot well above their season average of 47% by hitting over 53% of their FG attempts overall and over 52% from beyond the arc (39% on the season). What's surprising about the Clippers shooting so well against the Pistons in the last encounter too is the fact Detroit is 2nd in the NBA in Opponent FG% against allowing just 42.7% (BTW...The  Clippers are 1st). With two rested teams anxious to 'D' it up this sets up as an EASY UNDER!

PLAY ON: Toronto Raptors plus the points over the Houston Rockets. We like good teams off losses which is the case with the Raptors tonight in Houston. Toronto is just 1-4 SU their last five games and are coming off a loss against the Clippers but they step down in talent tonight when facing the Rockets. In their last four losses the Raptors have been beaten by the 3 best teams in the league in the Clippers, Warriors and Cavaliers. When they played in Cleveland they were +5.5 points and are now catching 4 from a Rockets team that isn't nearly as good as the Cavs. Toronto is one of just 10 teams in the league that have a positive point differential on the road (+1.3PPG) this season which is slightly lower than their season numbers a year ago of +2.5PPG which was 5th best. In other words this team plays well on the road! Houston is 4-1 SU at home this but not one of those four wins have come against teams with above .500 records on the road. Last year these two teams played a pair of tight games and considering the circumstances we like a more hungry Toronto team to get a road victory. 

ASA 10* #507/508 OVER 221 Oklahoma City Thunder @ LA Lakers, 10:35PM ET - Yes, it's a big number but we'll still play 'OVER' in the Thunder vs. Lakers game. These two teams are two of the fastest paced teams in the league this season with the Lakers 5th at 99.8 possessions per game and OKC 6th at 99.5PPP. That tells us both want to get out and run, play transition offense and push tempo. These two teams recently played Brooklyn who is the fastest paced team in the league (similar to both of these) and those game resulted in 229 total points and 243 total points. The Lakers have scored more than 107 points themselves in 4 of their last five games and in 2 of those contests they put up 125 and 126 points. In their last four games the Lakers defense (or lack of) has allowed 125, 118, 116 and 118. The Thunder and Westbrook can easily put up 120 in tonight's contest as they've scored 105 or more in 5 of their last six games. Based on offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency ratings our predictive models suggests a total of 226 or more tonight. 

PLAY ON: BOSTON CELTICS - We like the Boston Celtics minus the point at Minnesota tonight. The Celtics just need to win this game and the T'Wolves continue to be very over-rated by the oddsmakers (4-8 ATS) so we feel they'll get it done rather easily. Boston has played one of the toughest schedules to date and are still a respectable 7-6 SU on the season. The  T'Wolves on the other hand have played one of the easiest schedules to date and are just 4-8 SU. Boston was one of the better road teams in the NBA last year when it comes to efficiency ratings and had an overall average point differential of .9PPG which was 8th best in the league. Looking at Minny's home schedule we see wins over Philadelphia and the Lakers who were the two worst teams in the NBA a season ago and one other victory over Memphis who is just 4-10 this year. Not impressed! Boston on the  other hand is 4-1 ATS as a favorite less than 6-points this season and take care of the teams they're supposed to. Take the Celtics! 

OVER 216 Warriors @ Bucks, 8:35PM ET - Let me ask you a question, not about gambling, but everyday life. When your spouse goes shopping do you want them to look for the best value or pay a premium price? Easy answer right. VALUE! Well in tonight's NBA card there is one wager that is offering us tremendous value and that's OVER in the Golden State Warriors versus Milwaukee Bucks game. Vegas opened that Total at 223.5 in most places and a few had as high as 225.5 which is DRASTICALLY higher than the current number which is hovering around 216. The league average points scored per game is 207 and now we're asking these two teams to score 10 more points than normal and one (GST) of the two is the highest scoring team in the league at 116PPG and the most efficient offensively at 1.153 points per possession. Golden State is coming off a game last night in Boston but they spread their minutes out so fatigue shouldn't be a factor here. Not to mention, in their two other games this year when playing the second night of a back to back they've averaged 220 total points. The Bucks had last night off and are 4-0 over this year when playing with 1 day rest and those contests have totaled an average of 218 points. Milwaukee had three straight game to start November where they scored 117 plus points, then had a 'grinder' in Dallas followed by three more games of 100+ before an ugly game on Thursday in Miami where they managed just 73 points. After that horrendous offensive showing they'll be extra motivated to play well here against one of the league's premier teams. Golden State has scored 116+ in 5 of their last six and should get to that number here meaning the Bucks just need to top 100 points which is highly likely. BET OVER!

Play UNDER 200 in the Milwaukee Bucks @ Miami Heat game. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:35PM ET. If we make some comparisons to similar foes that each team has recently played we get a pretty good idea of what to expect tonight in terms of the Over/Under. First off the Bucks have recently played at Dallas and at Detroit who are both very similar to Miami in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency ratings and pace of play. In those games against the Mavs and Pistons the Bucks and their respective opponent in each combined for 161 total points in OT (Dallas) and 181 total points (Detroit). Both of which are well below tonight's set number by Vegas. On the flip side the Heat recently played the Bulls who have very similar numbers to the Bucks in those same three categories (OEFF, DEFF and pace) mentioned previously. The Heat and Bulls combined for 193 total points in Miami. Both teams are in the top  10 in DEFF allowing 1.05 points per possession and both are in the bottom half of the league in possessions per game. The league average total points scored in an NBA game right now is 207.4PPG and based on our math model and predictive suggestions these two teams will combine for well under that average and below the 200 number set by Vegas. The Under in this series on this court is 13-4 the last 17 meetings and that betting trend should continue here. 

PLAY ON: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS - The Toronto Raptors are in a tough scheduling situation tonight as they come off a HUGE game last night against their biggest rival in the East and defending NBA Champs Cleveland Cavaliers and now must face the best team in the West, Golden State. Besides being the second of a back-to-back this is the Raptors 4th game in just six days. Meanwhile the Warriors come into this game on 2 days rest. The Warriors seem to be jelling as a team right now with four straight double-digit wins where they've scored 116+ in all four contests. Golden State does it with offense as they are the most efficient team in the league and shoot over 50% from the field overall, 37.5% from the 3-point line. A good comparison for tonight is the Warriors game on the road in Portland a few weeks back when they were favored by 5-points and won by 23. Toronto already has 2 home losses this year so they're clearly not invincible on their own court. Off that emotionally and physically draining affair last night in  Cleveland we doubt they have much in their tanks tonight. Last season as a 6-point or less road chalk the Warriors were 8-2-2 ATS. Lay it with Golden State. 

PLAY ON: CHARLOTTE HORNETS - In our  opinion the Minnesota Timberwolves continue to be one of the most overvalued teams in the NBA. The young Wolves are going to be great value as a 'dog' this season and have a bright future but they're not there yet. Consider this: The Wolves were just favored by a point at home against a Lakers team that was one of the worst in the league last year. Now they are favored here against a Charlotte team that made the playoffs last year as a 6th seed. Minnesota faces a Charlotte team that is coming off 2 straight losses to the two best teams in the East, Toronto and Cleveland. This Hornets team was 18-23 SU on the road last year and were 10th in the league in road point differential. This season they've gotten off to a perfect 3-0 road start and we predict a 4-0 record after tonight. Again, Minnesota is improved but let's not forget they were 14-27 SU at home last year with the 27th worst differential of -3.8PPG. The Wolves have also played a weak schedule to date and have just a 3-6 record to show for it. Charlotte has covered 4 of the last five meeting with the Timberwolves and will get another win and cover here. 

PLAY ON: CLEVELAND CAVALIERS - We will play  on the Cleveland Cavaliers at home over the visiting Toronto Raptors. We like the value with the Cavs here at minus six as they were just 2.5 point favorites in Toronto a few weeks back and should be favored by 10 here. These two teams met last year in the playoffs which saw the home team win 5 of the six meetings. The Cavs three home playoff wins came by 31, 19 and 38 points so it's not like the Raptors were even competitive on this court. Cleveland has not cashed in for their backers in their last five home games so don't be surprised if they make a statement tonight against a Raptors team that is more than likely the second best team in the East. Cavs get focused when good teams come to town as they are 7-1-1 ATS their last nine at home against teams with winning road records. The Raptors on the flip side are just 2-5 ATS their last seven road games against teams with winning home records. Cleveland had an average point differential of +8.2PPG last regular season which was the 4th best number in the NBA and asking them to cover this short number doesn't seem like too much to ask. Lay it!

#701 Indiana Pacers (-5) @ Philadelphia 76ers, 7PM ET. This is a quick home-and-home turnaround as these same two teams just met on Wednesday in Indiana. The Pacers won an ugly overtime game 122-115 as a -11.5 point favorite. Granted Indiana hasn't won a road game this year but the 76ers haven't won a home game either. Indiana is the better team here and after a close, sloppy win they'll be focused here against an over-matched Sixers club. The Pacers are far superior offensively with the 11th most efficient offense in the NBA averaging 1.078 points per possession. By comparison the 76ers are LAST in the league averaging just .951 points per possession. Defensively the Pacers aren't great in terms of defensive efficiency and rank a few spots below Philly but it's marginable.  Philadelphia has the worst point differential in the NBA at a negative -12.7PPG and have lost 3 of their five home games by more than tonight's spread. The 76ers guards are HORRIBLE and the Pacers will exploit them on the perimeter with Teague, Ellis and Paul George. Pacers have covered 5 of the last six meetings. Lay the points!

Detroit Pistons (-4) over @ Phoenix Suns, 9PM ET - The Detroit Pistons are coming off an embarrassing 32-point loss to the Clippers and will bounce back here against a travel weary Phoenix Suns team. Detroit is a profitable 8-3 ATS their last eleven when coming off a straight up loss and they've covered 4 straight on this floor. Phoenix is just 7-9 ATS their last sixteen games when playing the second night of a back-to-back, 0-1 already this season. The Suns are coming off a hard fought close game in Portland last night and we don't see them duplicating that effort against the Pistons tonight. The big advantage the Pistons have here is defensively as they rank 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency ratings while the Suns are 8th worst. Not to mention the Pistons are actually slightly better in offensive efficiency ratings too. Detroit has an overall point differential of +2PPG on the season while the Suns are a negative or -7PPG. Let's not forget this Phoenix team won just 14 games at home last season so getting the Pistons to win this game by a few buckets is not too much to ask. Lay the points. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Memphis -3 over Denver, Sunday at 8:05 PM ET

This is a very important game for the 3-4 Memphis Grizzlies.  They’ve been at home for a majority of the early season and after this game they will be on the road for 6 of their next 7 games.  They are off back to back home losses to two of the better teams in the West, Portland & LA Clippers.  They catch a 4-4 Denver team in a great spot for a potential letdown here.  The Nuggets will be playing their 5th straight road game here and 6 of their last 7 have been away from home.  This ends a long road trip as Denver heads home after this to play 6 of their next 7 at home.  Denver is off a big upset win @ Boston in their most recent game which sets this up nicely.  Memphis is laying just 3.5 points here in an early season “must win” spot against a team that was 33-49 last year.  For comparison, Memphis was just favored by 1.5 here against a Portland team that was the 5th seed in the West last season and was not in the same tough road situation that Denver is currently in.  The value and urgency is with the host here and we’ll lay the 3.5 with Memphis.

Tonight we play on the Charlotte Hornets minus the points over the visiting Indiana Pacers. Charlotte continues to be one of those teams in the NBA that quietly fly under the radar but have shaped themselves into a pretty solid team. The Hornets are 4-1 SU this year and have won 33 of their last 46 home games. Charlotte had a +6.4PPG home point differential last season which was 7th best in the NBA. Indiana was just  19-22 SU on the road last year, with a negative differential  of  -.6 PPG.  They've picked up where they left off last year as they stand 0-3 SU away from home this season (average loss margin 14.6PPG) and the losses have come against Brooklyn, Chicago and Milwaukee. All three of those teams are ranked lower in our  power ratings than Charlotte. Charlotte beat the Pacers in all three meetings a year ago and clearly have a matchup advantage in this series. The Hornets have covered 4 straight at home over the Pacers and 8 of the last nine meetings overall. Lay the short number with Charlotte. 

ASA #703 @Oklahoma City Thunder (-5.5) over Minnesota Timberwolves - 6PM ET - We like the OKC Thunder minus the points at home over the Minnesota T'Wolves. This is a great spot to play  on the Thunder as they are coming off an embarrassing TV loss to the Warriors a few nights back and will take out their frustrations on the Wolves. Minnesota is somewhat of a media darling with their young budding superstars of Wiggins and Towns which makes them over-valued right now. In their two road games they were favored at Memphis and a 1-point dog at the Kings. Now they are catching just 5.5 points at OKC with the Thunder off a loss? In fact, the Thunder were -8.5 at home against the Suns and -8 at home against the Lakers this season and are now laying less than that in this situation against a Wolves team that isn't any better than those two teams. The Thunder have covered 5 straight when coming off a double digit loss and 6 of their last eight off any loss. A focused OKC team and Russell Westbrook get a huge home win here.  

PLAY ON: L.A. CLIPPERS - We will play the LA Clippers minus the points over the Memphis Grizzlies. The  Clippers come into this game off an upset home loss which should have them more focused than normal. Conversely the Grizzlies come into this game off an OT win over the New Orleans Pelicans and may be a little 'relaxed'. The Clippers have played a tough schedule early on with quality wins over Portland and Utah while the Grizzlies have played a soft schedule against Minnesota (twice), New York, Washington and New Orleans. None of those aforementioned teams made the playoffs last season and combined had a record of 161 and 249. Last regular season the Clippers had the 6th best road differential in the NBA and a road record of 24-17 SU. Memphis was 20th in the league in home court differential last year and the Clippers have won 4 of the last five meetings. With L.A. coming off a HORRIBLE shooting night we expect a bounce back here, especially considering they face the Spurs tomorrow night and can't afford to go into that contest off 2 straight losses. Memphis was a home dog to the T'Wolves this year and were +3.5 points at home to the Wizards and the Clippers are far superior to both of those teams and laying just a few more points here. Take the Clippers!

We play OVER in the Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks on Thursday evening. The league average right now is 207.4PPG and the line on this game isn’t posted high enough in relationship to that number. The Buck and Pacers both prefer to play much faster than most teams in the NBA right now with the Pacers ranking 8th in pace of play (99.9 possessions per game) and Bucks just a few spots below them at 13th (98.2PPP). Indiana is shooting 45.9% on the season which is 8th best in the NBA while the Bucks are 15th in shooting at 44.1%. Neither team is great defensively either as both rank in the bottom 13 of the league in defensive efficiency rankings allowing more than 1.084 points per possession. We also like the fact that both teams are capable of getting to the rim and score easy baskets in the lane. Milwaukee is 2nd in the league in points in the paint at 53.5PPG while the Pacers are 7th at 48PPG. The Bucks have scored or allowed 107+ points in 3 of four games this year while the Pacers have scored or allowed 115+ in 3 of their four games. This sets up to be a HIGH SCORING GAME!

ASA PLAY ON #714 New Orleans Pelicans (-3.5) over Milwaukee Bucks, Tuesday 8PM ET - Tonight we like the New Orleans Pelicans minus the points at home over the visiting Milwaukee Bucks. The Pelicans have gotten off to an 0-3 start but let's not lose site of the fact that two of those losses have come against the Spurs and Warriors who were 2 of the 3 best teams in the NBA a year ago. After losing 11 of its first 12 games a season ago you can bet the Pelicans are already feeling the heat and will play with a higher sense of urgency than normal in game #4 this season. New Orleans big man Anthony Davis has gotten off to a fantastic start to the season by averaging 37.7PPG and Milwaukee doesn't have anyone on the roster that can stop him. The Bucks have given up an average of 52 points per game in the paint this season which is the second most in the NBA. Milwaukee has gotten off to a 1-2 start to the season and are going through an adjustment period as head coach Jason Kidd continues to juggle his lineup. The Bucks were one of the least efficient offenses in the NBA last season and don't look as if they've gotten any better this season. The Pelicans have covered 5 of the last six meetings with the Bucks in the Big Easy and 8 of the last eleven meetings overall. We don't feel the oddsmakers have adjusted this number enough considering the Pelicans were just a -1.5 point favorite at home over Denver who is better than this Milwaukee team. Lay it!

PLAY ON: #702 Orlando Magic (-) over Miami Heat - 7PM ET - We will play on the Orlando Magic at home over the visiting Miami Heat.  The Heat had 13 more wins than the Magic a season ago and were better statistically in terms of Offensive and Defensive Efficiency ratings but offseason moves and hiring's may have flipped where these teams end up at the end of the season.  In fact, a telling number that supports our thinking is the win totals posted by Vegas on these two teams as the Heat's regular season number is 34.5 while the Magic is 37.5. The Magic made some major upgrades in the offseason including the hiring of Frank Vogel as the new coach. Vogel will have a HUGE impact on this young roster and could be the difference maker for this franchise. Orlando traded for Serge Ibaka, brought in Bismack Biyombo via free agency (won't play tonight) and added veteran forward Jeff Green. Orlando's starting lineup is simply better than the Heat and we predict it shows tonight. Nikola Vucevic is back in the middle after averaging 18.2PPG, 8.9RPG and 1.1BLKPG, young rising star Aaron Gordon is on the wing along with Ibaka while the backcourt will be manned by Evan Fournier (15.4PPG, 2.7APG) and Elfrid Payton (10.7PPG, 6.4 APG). Miami on the flip side is now expecting role players to step up and be major contributors and we don't think they will. D-Wade is gone from Miami and he had a phenomenal season a year ago (played in 75 games which was his most since the 2010-11 season) leading the Heat and scoring and second in assists per game. Now Miami turns to Hassan Whiteside, Goran Dragic and Justise Winslow to carry the load and we think it's going to be a long year for the Heat starting with a loss tonight. Orlando was 23-18 SU at home last season with a +2.3 point differential. Miami was 20-21 SU on the road a year ago with a negative differential of -2.1PPG.  The home team has won and covered 4 of the last five and we expect a double digit win here by Orlando!

We are going to play UNDER in Game #6 when the Cavs host the Warriors on Thursday night. Numbers, statistics and handicapping are all connected and based on averages. When teams or players shoot exceptionally well or poorly it tips the scales one way or the other. In Game #5 the Cavaliers, namely LeBron and Kyrie Irving shot the lights out and it led to a 112 point outing for the Cavs. Overall, Cleveland shot 53% as a team which is higher than their season average of 46.2% with LBJ and Kyrie combining for 33 makes on 54 attempts. On the flip side the Warriors got 52 points from Klay Thompson and Steph Curry on 19 of 41 shooting which is 'normal' but the rest of the Warriors were just 13 of 46 from the field. It's highly unlikely Irving shoots 59% again in Game #6 and very doubtful a poor shooting LeBron (just 42% from 16 feet or greater, 32% from 3-point line) hits as many jump shots as he did in the last game. Not to mention the Warriors get their best defender back, and one of the best overall defenders in the entire NBA, for this game in Draymond Green.  The 'under' is 3-1-1 in this series and the games have averaged 201PPG.  For this game to go 'over' the number the two teams need to combine for 52 points per quarter. In the 20 quarters played in this series thus far, 14 have totaled 52 or less points.  We expect both defenses to  step up again and predict a very physical game on both ends by each team. The bet here is UNDER. 

Golden State (-6) over Cleveland Cavaliers - 8PM CT Monday - We will play on Golden State minus the points over the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game #5 on Monday. First of all, the suspension of Draymond Green is a complete and utter joke and I understand the 'point system' the NBA has in place and Green exceeded the technical foul number BUT really? Ask yourself this, had the roles been reversed and it was LeBron instead of Green in that situation would the NBA have given him a post game technical and suspended LBJ? No chance! Will the Warriors miss Green tonight? Yes, but not as much as you might think. Green did grab 12 boards in the last game but was just 2 of 9 from the field and is on an 0-8 run from beyond the arc.  This is a deep team and they've had players step up every time they've faced adversity in the past two years so I think they  overcome that loss. The oddsmakers adjusted this number but smart money continues to flow in on the Warriors even after it was announced Green was out. Golden State shot under 41% in the last game but still beat the Cavs in Cleveland by 9-points. In the first two games of the series the Warriors shot 49.4% and 54.3% at home and won in blowout  fashion. GST was the best shooting team in the league at home this season, the most efficient offense at home and had the largest average point differential on their own floor. Golden State is 50-3 SU at home and have a 127-22 record here the past three full seasons. Lay the points with the Warriors. 

ASA  Play on: Golden State Warriors + over Cleveland Cavaliers - Friday 8PM CT - We were on the Cavs in Game #3 and they rewarded us with a blowout win over Golden State but tonight we 'zag' and take the Warriors who are basically in the same situation that the Cavs were going into Game #3. We have a great team, off an embarrassing blowout loss and in need of a win. Golden State was really outplayed in the last game and didn't match the Cavs physical play, especially on the defensive end of the floor. Cleveland was 10th in the league during the regular season in defensive efficiency rating so I doubt we'll see a repeat performance tonight on that end of the floor for them. Not to mention the Cavs field goal percentage defense was 14th in the NBA (barely above average) as they allowed 45% shooting by foes during the regular season. Golden State had a HORRIBLE shooting night in Game #3 as Klay Thompson, Steph Curry and Draymond Green hit just 12 of 34 from the field and the team as a whole shot just 42.1%. Now consider this, the Warriors have played 102 games this season and they shot below 42.1% just fifteen times so the odds favor a much better shooting night in Game #4. On the flip side, the Cavs shot it extremely well in Game #3 at 52.7% which was considerably higher than their season average of 46.1%. And the Warriors FG% defense was 2nd best in the league so expect a better effort from them on that end of the floor too. The Warriors are 13-1 SU off a loss this year (27-7 SU last 2 years) and have been underdogs just 6 times this season and they've covered four of those games.  Overall the Warriors are 30-11 SU the past two playoffs and they'll find a way to win this game in Cleveland tonight. 

ASA 10* Cleveland Cavaliers (pick'em) over Golden State Warriors 8PM CT Wednesday - We will play on the Cleveland Cavaliers in this MUST WIN situation, AT HOME, OFF A BLOWOUT LOSS! Good teams, great players bounce in this role and the right wager here is Cleveland...even without Kevin Love.  During the regular season and playoffs the Cavs have lost back to back games just 9 times this year and lost three games in a row once but Irving and James both missed games in that 3 game losing stretch. Cleveland didn't do ANYTHING well in Game #2 and it was a humbling 33-point loss in Golden State. They shot just 38% as a team in Game #1 and 35% in G2 which are both well below their season average of 46.2% which is 9th best in the league. You can bet that the Cavs at home will shoot much better tonight, especially LeBron who has to attack the rim and the Warriors interior defenders. When coming off a 'beat' this season the Cavs are 19-9 SU and have covered 4 of their last six in that situation.  James shot near 54% in the Eastern Conference playoffs but has been held to just 41% in the first two games of this series.  At home this year LeBron made over 53%  of his FG attempts.  The Cavaliers are 40-8 SU at home this year and during the regular season had the 6th best home point differential in the league. In the post season the Cavs home differential is +20PPG and they haven't lost with a 7-0 record.  In fact, Cleveland has the best efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) of all the playoff teams of +22.8 which is remarkable. Lastly let's consider this. If this game was played a week ago the Cavaliers would easily be a 4 to 5 point home favorite so the value lies with Cleveland. 

We will play on the Cleveland Cavaliers plus the points over Golden State in Game #2. We expect the Cavs to  bounce back here and if they don't win they should cover this number. During the regular season and playoffs the Cavs have lost back to back games just 8 times this year and they're coming off a pretty poor game by their standards. Cleveland turned the ball over 17 times which was uncharacteristic as they averaged just 13 per game during the regular season which was 6th best in the NBA. They also shot just 38% as a team which was well below their season average of 46.2% which is 9th best in the league. When coming off a 'beat' this season the Cavs are 19-8 SU and have covered 4 of their last five in that situation.  Golden State didn't get big games from their two Super Stars in Steph Curry or Klay Thompson so expect those two to contribute much more in this game but you also can't expect reserve guards Shaun Livingston to score a career playoff best 20-points or Leandro Barbosa to go 5 of 5 from the field. The Cavs have been 'dogs' just 10 times this season and they've covered 70% of those games. Included in that underdog run, Cleveland has only been a pooch of 7 or more points only once this year and they covered that game so we'll grab the points here in this must win situation with a good team like the Cavs. 

We've got another great Finals match up this year when the Warrior and Cavaliers square off for the second straight time. We clearly got the best of the East and the West again in what promises to be a very entertaining series. The first thing I read online this morning is LeBron and the Cavs wanted this match up and are out for revenge from last year's Finals loss to Golden State. Guess what. LeBron and the Cavs were looking for payback in two regular season games against the Warriors and had a full roster but still LOST BY 34 in Golden State and 6 at home. That's five straight losses by Cleveland to Golden State dating back to last year's Championship.  The Warriors won 73 games during the regular season this year and are currently 48-3 SU at home including 8-1 in the playoffs. The Warriors have an average point differential at home of +14.2PPG, shoot an average of 49% and allow under 44% shooting by opponents. In the playoffs the Warriors have won every home game but two by more than the spread in this game. Last year the big difference in the Warriors/Cavaliers series was the defensive play  of Andre Iguodala who frustrated LBJ in the last three games of that series. If you paid close attention to the Thunder versus Warriors series the difference maker we felt was Iggy's defense on Durant and Westbrook in Games 6 and 7. Obviously Cleveland is playing pretty well right now but some of that is a bit misleading as they beat some average teams in the East in Detroit, Atlanta and Toronto.  Home court will be huge in this series and Golden State has covered 10 of their last twelve on their home court. We'll lay the points in Game #1. 

Play on: OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (-) over Golden State Warriors – 8PM CT - Game 6 Saturday – The oddsmakers have finally gotten this line right with the Thunder now favored at home over Golden State but we feel there is still value with the OKC side. Consider for a moment how impressive the Thunder have been at home in the playoffs, especially the last two series as they are 4-1 SU & ATS against the Spurs and Warriors who were a combined 140-24 on the season. Not only that, but the last four wins over those two elite teams have come by 14, 14, 18 and 24 points respectively. Let’s also not forget the Thunder were 32-9 SU at home during the regular season (+9.8 point differential) and have just two home losses in the post season (+15.8 point playoff home differential). After breaking down the films off all the games of this series we’re convinced OKC is clearly the better team at this point in time and have too many matchup advantages for Golden State to overcome. KD or Kevin Durant is averaging 31PPG in this series while running mate Russell Westbrook is averaging 6.6 rebounds, 11 assists and 28PPG against Golden State this round. Even in their Game #5 win we didn’t feel the Warriors were the better team when they got a much needed home win to extend this series. Now OKC is back at home and off a loss where they are 13-3 SU this season in that situation. In fact, dating back to 2009 the Thunder have the best overall spread record in the NBA when coming off a loss by covering 58.4% of the time.   In a playoff closeout situation the Thunder have won 11 straight games at home and have covered 6 straight times on this floor against Golden State. The pick here is OKC

ASA  Play on: OVER 196.5 Cleveland Cavaliers @ over Toronto Raptors – 7:30PM CT - Game 6 Friday –The Cavs ripped through the first two rounds of the playoffs (10 straight wins) before the Raptors found their shooting stroke back at home and made this a series. After a blowout win in Game #5 the Cavs look to end this series tonight and will dispose of this Toronto team in a high scoring affair.  Cleveland shot just 36% as a team from beyond the arc during the regular season but have hit 43% in the post-season and they're attempting 33 3's per game. In Game #1 Cleveland shot over 55% from the field overall and made 7 of 20 3's for 35%. In Game #2 they were 7 of 20 from beyond the arc and hit 50% from the field overall. In Game #4 which was a loss the Cavs still shot over 47% from the field and in Game #5 they shot over 57% and put up 116 points. The Cavs aren't going to change their offensive philosophy here as the Raptors have the 27th worst 3-point percentage defense in the NBA. Cleveland has the best offensive efficiency rating in the post season at 1.188PPP and are averaging more points per game at 106.5PPG than they did during the regular season. The Raptors OEFF numbers are similar to their season averages so we do expect them to score here too. Raptor games played in Toronto this season averaged 201PPG with the Raptors averaging 45% shooting as a team but also allowed foes to hit 45%. In the last game here these two teams combined for 204 total points as both shot it well and played fast enough for the ‘over’ bettors to cash in. The value clearly lies with an OVER bet here as the line has moved dramatically from the opener which started at 202.5.