Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-07-20 | Florida +3.5 v. Georgia | Top | 44-28 | Win | 100 | 72 h 18 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on Florida at 3:30 ET. "The World's Largest Cocktail Party" will be played in Jacksonville on Saturday, as No. 5 Georgia (4-1) takes on and No. 8 Florida (3-1). The two SEC East schools square off as top-10 teams for the THIRD consecutive season, with Georgia (which owns a 52-43-2 series lead) looking for its FOURTH straight win in the series. "It doesn't clinch it or seal anything, but whoever wins this game certainly is putting themselves in the driver's seat to get to Atlanta," Florida head coach Dan Mullen said (Georgia is seeking a fourth straight SEC title). Florida is dealing with injuries, suspensions and potential COVID-19 absences but returned from a three-week layoff (COVID issues) to beat Missouri 41-17 last Saturday. The Gators had a near-perfect pass/run balance in 2018, passing for 213.5 YPG, while rushing for 213.2 YPG but last season Florida passed for 305 yards and ran for 130. That's continued in 2020 with QB Trask completing 68.3% for 1,341 yards in four games (335 per) with 18 TDs and just two TDs, while Florida is averaging only 133.8 YPG rushing but on 4.8 YPC. The team's leading rusher (Pierce) has just 169 yards but averages 5.0 YPC. 6-5 TE Pitts has 22 catches, averaging 16.1 YPC with seven TDs and WR Toney also has 22 catches with six TDs (13.5 YPC). Florida's defense was AWFUL the first three games, allowing 100 points but finally showed up against Missouri, holding the Tigers to 17 points on just 248 yards. One could say it was "only Missouri," but the Georgia offense has been VERY underwhelming in 2020. QB Stetson Bennett ignited the offense when he came off the bench in the opener at Arkansas, completing 20 of 29 for 211 yards with two TDs and no INTs in a 37-10 win. Bennett had five TDs without an INT in Georgia's 3-0 start but in the Bulldogs' 41-24 loss at Alabama and last Saturday's 14-3 win at Kentucky, he has just two TD passes and FIVE interceptions. Bennett only has one quality receiver, Jackson (24 catches / 14.5 YPC / one TD) and Georgia's running game is better than Florida's (175.2 YPG) but NOT by much. Georgia arrived in Tuscaloosa for its showdown with Alabama ranking first nationally in rushing defense (38.3 YPG), second in total defense (236.7 YPG) and tied for fifth in scoring defense (12.3 PPG). However, Alabama shredded Georgia's defense with 41 points on 564 yards and Florida comes into this game averaging 42.0 PPG on 476.5 YPG. I'll take the points but expect a Florida outright win. Good luck...Larry |
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11-07-20 | Michigan State v. Iowa -6.5 | Top | 7-49 | Win | 100 | 96 h 10 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Iowa at 12:00 ET. Mel Tucker was an assistant at Ohio St under Jim Tressel when the Buckeyes won a national championship and also was part of a national championship team at Alabama under Nick Saban. His first head coaching job came at Colorado in 2019, with the Buffs going 5-7. However, when Michigan State's all-time winningest coach Mark Dantonio stepped down at the end of 2019, Tucker resigned as Colorado's head coach to accept the same position at Michigan State. Tucker's contract at Michigan State is worth $5.5 million annually for six years; more than double his contract at Colorado (not a tough choice, because loyalty and honoring contracts have NO place in college football). His debut for Michigan St turned into a 'nightmare,' as the Spartans lost 38-27 at home to Rutgers (as a 9 1/2-point favorite), turning the ball over SEVEN times! The Scarlet Knights broke a 21-game losing streak in the Big Ten with the victory. However, he made history last week as his team surprised archrival Michigan 27-24, as just over a three-TD underdog. Tucker became the first Spartans coach to record his first overall victory against the Wolverines. The Spartans will try to carry that momentum over to Iowa in a Big Ten game on Saturday. Kirk Ferentz was hired as Iowa's 26th head football coach to replace the retiring Hayden Fry back on December 2, 1998. The team struggled during Ferentz's first two seasons with a combined 4–19 record but the Hawkeyes earned their first bowl bid of the Ferentz era after a 7–5 season in 2001 and then beat Texas Tech in the Alamo Bowl, 19–16. The winning has been consistent ever since, as Iowa has gone 'bowling' in 17 of the previous 19 seasons. Problems arose over the offseason internally and Iowa, which opened No. 24 in the AP's preseason poll, has lost 24-20 at Purdue and 21-20 at home to Northwestern to open a season 0-2 for the first time since 2000. Michigan St had to replace QB Brian Lewerke and Rocky Lombardi threw for 319 yards with three TDs and two INTs in the loss to Rutgers. He then threw for 323 yards and three TDs (without an interception) at Michigan and found a new favorite target in WR wide Ricky White, as the freshman set a single-game school record with 196 receiving yards. White is averaging 22.3 YPC on his nine receptions, while fellow WSRs Reed (12 / 12.2 YPC / 2 TDs) and Nailor (eight catches / 19.0 YPC) / 1 TD) give Lombardi quality options. However, MSU's running game is averaging just 88.0 YPG on 2.7 YPC. Iowa also had to replace its starting QB, as Nate Stanley ended a three-year career at Iowa with 68 TDs and 23 INTs, while posting a 27-12 record as a starter, including winning all THREE bowl appearances! Sophomore Spencer Petras has completed just 53.9 percent of his passes in the first two games and was picked off three times by the Wildcats as the Hawkeyes managed just three points in the last three quarters of a one-point loss. "Spencer has done a lot of good things," Ferentz said. "You keep in mind this is his first year starting. Unlike most guys in the past that have played here, he didn't have the luxury of being in spring practice, so this is learning on the job." He'd better start learning fast! Iowa's running game has averaged a modest 136.0 YPG on 4.6 YPC, so as noted, Petras is going have to up his game. Iowa's 2019 defense ranked 2nd in the Big Ten in allowing 14.0 PPG last season (5th nationally) and ranked 5th in the Big Ten in allowing 308.2 YPG (12th nationally). "Historically, we have played a lot of close games, so the challenge for us right now is to find a way to get over the hump and make the outcome go a different direction -- in our direction," Ferentz said. "It gets down to being a little more detailed and doing everything collectively a little bit better." Off two "close losses," the Hawkeyes catch the Spartans off their upset of hated rival Michigan St. Iowa is on a 10-4 ATS run in this series and the fact remains that this inexperienced Michigan St team is off that HUGE win AND playing its second straight road game. Iowa has to be motivated (angry?) off those two close losses plus note that MSU is 3-9 ATS off a SU win the last two seasons, as well as being on a 3-11 ATS run vs Big Ten opponents. Great "situation" for a two-TD (or more) win by the Hawkeyes. Good luck...Larry |
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11-07-20 | Michigan -2.5 v. Indiana | Top | 21-38 | Loss | -121 | 90 h 9 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Michigan at 12:00 ET. Michigan opened the season ranked No. 16 in the AP's preseason poll but of course didn't play its first game until Oct 24. The Wolverines won impressively 42-24 at Minnesota in their season opener but then lost last Saturday at home 27-24 to Michigan St as a three-TD favorite. Fans and alumni are getting tired of Harbaugh's lack of success against Michigan's top rivals, as the Wolverines are 8-13 against Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State and Wisconsin during Harbaugh's five-plus year tenure. Tom Allen was hired back in 2016 to serve as defensive coordinator on head coach Kevin Wilson's staff at Indiana. However, on December 1, 2016, Indiana athletic director Fred Glass named Allen head coach after Wilson's sudden resignation, forcing Allen to make his coaching debut during the team's final game of the season at the 2016 Foster Farms Bowl, where the Hoosiers lost 26-24 to Utah. Allen's first two teams each went 5-7 but he quickly elevated Indiana's recruiting posture. Allen's third season was 2019 and he led Indiana to its first 7-2 start since 1993, earning the school's first top-25 ranking since 1994. Indiana finished the regular season with an 8-4 record, its first eight-win since 1993. The Hoosiers lost another close bowl game to cap the season, falling to Tennessee 23-22 in the Gator Bowl. Indiana opened 2020 with a dramatic 36-35 overtime win at home vs Penn State, then followed with a methodical 37-21 win at Rutgers on Saturday. Indiana is 2-0, giving the school its best start in the Big Ten since 1991, while the Hoosiers' No. 13 ranking is the school's highest since it was ranked 11th back in 1987. Michigan dominated Minnesota(which was coming off an 11-win season), as Joe Milton (making his first career start at QB) completed 15 of 22 passes for 225 yards and a touchdown plus rushed for 52 yards and another score. Michigan ran for 253 yards on 31 carries, an 8.3 average, while scoring five rushing TDs. That was supposed to be an excellent effort but then we saw Minnesota lose 45-44 (OT) to a sad-sack Maryland team. Milton passed for 300 yards last week (but on 51 attempts) and ran for 59 yards but Michigan scored just 24 points. Michigan scored on just FOUR of 12 possessions, finishing the game just 7 of 17 on third-down conversations. The defense contributed to the loss as well, allowing 449 yards. Allen's forte is defense and the Indiana D has forced THREE turnovers in each of its first two games. QB Michael Penix Jr threw for three TDs and added one rushing in the win over Rutgers. However, he's completing a modest 58.1% after two games for 408 yards. The Hoosiers have NO running game, averaging 75.0 YPG on 2.3 YPC. As Penix said after the Rutgers win, "The defense gave us great field position. I feel like it is a team effort. The defense causes turnovers whenever the opponent was backed up, and that gave us a short field. We took advantage of it." As for head coach Tom Allen, he still believes there is another level that the Hoosiers can reach as they head into Saturday's home matchup with Michigan. "It's about us playing our best football." "To me that's the focus. We haven't done that yet." I like Allen and what he's done at Indiana and Harbaugh is one of my least favorite coaches but Michigan IS the better team AND is coming off an embarrassing home loss to hated rival Michigan St. The Hoosiers offense has shown no real rhythm plus Indiana comes in just 3-7 ATS as a home dog under Allen. Most importantly, Indiana hasn't beaten Michigan since 1987. Harbaugh NEEDS a win and gets it here, "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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11-06-20 | BYU v. Boise State +3.5 | Top | 51-17 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Friday Night Lights (Part 2) is on Boise St at 9:45 ET. The 2020 college football season was surely expected to be "unlike any other." Just ask BYU, as NINE of the 12 schools on its schedule originally decided to NOT play in 2020. BYU plays football as an Independent and had to scramble to patch together a 2020 schedule. However, the four conferences that opted out in August, reversed field in September. BYU's current head coach is Kalani Sitake, who took over in 2016. The Cougars went 9-4 in his first season, capping the year with a win in the Poinsettia Bowl. However, BYU followed with a 4-9 bowl-less 2017 campaign and in 2018, the team's win in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl allowed them to finish above .500 at 7-6. Sitake was feeling some 'heat' from the BYU "faithful" in 2019 after a 2-4 start but a five-game winning streak made BYU 7-4 bowl eligible and Sitake was rewarded with a contract extension through 2023. However, the Cougars lost their regular season final 13-3 at SD State and then lost the Hawaii Bowl to Hawaii 34-30, finishing at 7-6, again. No one expected much from BYU in 2020 but BYU's 7-0 start is its first since 2001 and its No. 9 ranking places the school inside the AP top-10 for the first time since November 7, 2009. This Friday contest figures to be a high-scoring affair as Boise State has averaged 45.5 points (third in the nation) and 454.5 yards (22nd) over its two first games, while BYU is averaging 44.4 points (seventh) and 527.7 yards (sixth). The Cougars have topped 40 points in six of their first seven games for the first time in program history. If BYU wins here, it could easily wind up unbeaten. The same holds for Boise St as currently, the team's remaining schedule doesn't feature any likely 'danger' spots. Boise has played just TWO games against overmatched opponents so to some extent one has to project. Case in point is that Boise State sophomore QB Hank Bachmeier (20 of 28 with 268 yards with three TDs and zero INTs in Boise's season opener) didn't travel with the team Saturday to a 49-30 victory over Air Force. Bryan Harsin has declined to shed light on the reason for Bachmeier's absence. What we do know is this. Junior transfer Jack Sears was superb in Bachmeier's place, completing 17 of 20 passes for 280 yards and three touchdowns and also rushing for a score. RB George Holani extended Boise State's streak of 1,000-yard rushers to 11 straight seasons with 1,014 yards in 2019. He had 100 yards rushing in Boise's first game but was injured vs Air Force after two carries for five yards. However, RB Van Buren played well stepping in for Holani with 70 yards and two TDs. Good luck...Larry |
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11-05-20 | Packers -4 v. 49ers | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 57 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* NFC Championship Game Rematch is on the GB Packers at 8:20 ET. The Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers both went 13-3 and met in the NFC championship game in 2019. The result was a DOMINATING San Francisco win, as the 49ers led 27-0 at the half and cruised to a 37-20. It's a rematch of that contest in this Week 9 Thursday Night game, as the 49ers again welcome the Packers to Levi's Stadium. The 49ers opened 2-3, then followed with B2B wins (24-16 at home against the Rams and 33-6 at the Pats), but then lost 37-27 at Seattle last Sunday. The 4-4 Niners find themselves in last-place in the NFL's toughest division, behind the 6-1 Seahawks, 5-2 Cards and 5-3 Rams. The Packers sprinted to a 4-0 SU & ATS start but after a bye (Week 5), have sandwiched a 35-20 Week 7 win at Houston with a 38-10 loss at Tampa Bay (Week 6) and a 28-22 home loss to Minnesota (Week 8). Green Bay is 5-2 and just a half-game up on the Bears in the NFC North. Aaron Rodgers entered last week's game with Minnesota on quite a roll, except for the team's 38-10 loss at Tampa. Rodgers was 16 of 35 for only 160 yards without a TD pass and was intercepted twice in that one. However, in Green Bay's five wins, he'd thrown for 1,497 yards (299.4 per game) with 17 TDs and not a SINGLE interception in 173 attempts! Rodgers had a solid game vs the Vikings, completing 27 of 41 for 291 yards with three TDs and zero INTs. However, RB Aaron Jones (389 yards on 5.2 YPC and 5 TDs plus 18 catches for 2 TDs) missed his second straight game with a calf injury and Green Bay was able to run for just 109 yards. In contrast, Minnesota's Dalvin Cook ran for 163 yards with three TDs and added a TD catch. Green Bay WR Davante Adams had missed two games this season but had 13 receptions for 196 yards and two TDs in Week 7 and while his seven catches last Sunday only totaled 53 yards, THREE went for TDs. He has 43 catches and seven TDs in five games this season, while TE Tonyan has five TDs in a modest 23 catches. Green Bay's defense has underperformed from last season, allowing 26.7 PPG after allowing 19.6 PPG in last season. San Francisco's loss at Seattle not only dropped them into last place but adding insult to injury, TE Kittles (foot) and QB Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle) both got hurt and each will miss multiple games. It is possible that neither player will suit up again this season. The team's best RB Mostert (303 yards on 5.9 YPC) is out with an injury and after Jeff Wilson Jr. rushed for a career-high three TDs and 112 yards in the win over Houston, he sustained a high left ankle sprain that landed him on injured reserve. The 49ers ran for just 52 yards (2.4 YPC) against Seattle. Nick Mullens replace Jimmy G last week and completed 18 of 25 for 238 yards with two TDs and zero INTs. Mullens is completing 70.4% for 852 yards with seven TDs and five INTs (5-5 ratio prior to last week). I'll admit that San Francisco as a home dog (climbing to almost a TD by Wednesday) seems tempting. However, this team has SO many key injuries and now COVID issues, that the 49ers are a 'shell' of the club which led KC 20-10 in last year's Super Bowl midway through the fourth quarter. THREE of San Francisco's four wins have come over the NY Giants, NY Jets and the NE Pats, a trio which owns a combined record of 3-20. Green Bay gets some revenge from last year's NFC championship loss and gets its season back on track with a comfortable win. Good luck...Larry |
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11-04-20 | Ball State v. Miami-OH -3 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 59 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout (Wednesday G.O.M.) is on Miami-Ohio at 7:00 ET. The Mid-American Conference became the first FBS conference to postpone the fall season because of concerns surrounding the coronavirus pandemic back on Aug 8 but 'reversed field' on Sep 25 by announcing that a season would be played, one which would feature a six-game, conference-only schedule. All 12 MAC schools will open the season Wednesday, Nov 4, and then play their next two games on Tuesdays or Wednesdays before transitioning to Saturdays for the final three weeks. Each team will play five division opponents and one crossover opponent in Week 1, with defending league champion Miami (Ohio) opening at home against Ball State. Mike Neu started at QB for four seasons at Ball State and as senior, led Ball State to the MAC championship (he was named the MAC MVP and Offensive Player of the Year) He was named the head coach at his alma mater on January 7, 2016 but has yet to having a winning season in four years. The Cardinals are 15-33 over under his tenure, including an 8-24 league record and a 6-18 record in all road games. Chuck Martin coached Grand Valley State (Division II school) from 2004 through 2009, going 74-7 in six seasons. He made the championship game three times, winning twice. He was the offensive coordinator at Notre Dame for the 2012 season, when the Fighting Irish finished the regular season with a 12–0 record and earned a berth in the BCS National Championship Game. It was announced on Dec 3, 2013, that Martin would be leaving his position at Notre Dame to take over as the head coach at Miami University for the 2014 season. He orchestrated a "methodical rebuild" in Oxford, resulting in the RedHawks beating Central Michigan 26-21 in the 2019 MAC championship, giving the school its first MAC title since 2010. Ball St led the MAC in scoring (34.8 PPG) and total offense (463.0 YPG) and QB Drew Pitt (64.3%, 2,918 yards / 24 TDs and 7 INTs). RB Caleb Huntley (1,275 yards on 5.1 YPC with 12 TDs) and WR Justin Hall (61 catches / 6 TDs) are all back. The defensive outlook is NOT as good, after the Cardinals allowed 31.4 PPG on 424.7 YPG. Miami QB Brett Gabbert is expected to build off a 'rookie season' in which he passed for 2,411 yards with 11 TDs and eight INTs (he was named MAC freshman-of-the-year). The OL has four returning starters and RB Jaylon Bester is back healthy for his senior year (741 yards and 14 TDs in 2019). The defense is solid by conference standards, allowing 28.1 PPG (4th) on 381.9 YPG (3rd). The these schools have met the last four seasons in their respective regular season finales but find themselves opening this COVID-shorted 2020 season. Note that after having beaten Ball St in 2016, 2017 and 2018, the RedHawks lost at Ball St 41-27 in 2019's regular-season finale. FYI...Miami had already clinched the East title and a berth in the MAC title game. Methinks that Miami will remember that loss and note that Miami was 5-0 at home in 2019 and will take an EIGHT-game home winning streak into this game. What's more, head coach Chuck Martin owns a 23-8 record in his last 31 MAC contest. 'Short' price. Lay it! Good luck...Larry |
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11-01-20 | 49ers v. Seahawks -2.5 | Top | 27-37 | Win | 100 | 97 h 48 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Sea Seahawks at 4:25 ET. The Seattle Seahawks came back from its bye week 5-0 but the team had been 'walking a tightrope' for most of those five games, as THREE of Seattle's five victories had come down to the game's final 15 seconds. Seattle entered its SNF contest in Arizona with a defense that had allowed a league-high 431.2 YPG. Seattle led 34-24 midway through the fourth quarter but couldn't hang on, as Murray drove the Cards 75 yards to close within three points with just 2;28 remaining. Seattle punted it back to Arizona, which tied the game with a 44-yard FG on the final play of regulation and won it with a FG in OT. 5-1 Seattle welcomes the 4-3 SF 49ers to CenturyLink Field this Sunday. The 49ers are not just defending NFC West champs but they are also defending NFC champs. The Niners opened 2-3 but have won two in a row (24-16 at home against the Rams and 33-6 at the Pats) to get back to 4-3. However, the 49ers still find themselves in last-place in the NFL's toughest division, behind the 5-2 Cards and Rams plus the 5-1 Seahawks. Safe to say, this is a big game for both teams. Jimmy Garoppolo was 20 of 25 for 277 yards in San Francisco's 33-6 rout of the Pats, in what was his first game against his former team. However, he didn't throw a TD and had three INTs. Leading rusher Mostert sat out with an injury but Jeff Wilson Jr. rushed for a career-high three TDs and 112 yards but sustained a high left ankle sprain that landed him on injured reserve. TE Kittle is back from an early injury and has 31 catches in his last four games. The WR corps is mediocre at best and who knows who will be healthy among the RBs. The San Francisco defense is again playing well, allowing 19.4 PPG, the same it allowed in 2019 Russell Wilson was widely considered the front-runner for the NFL's MVP award through Week 6, as he had completed 72.8% for 1,502 yards while leading the league with 19 TD passes (just three INTs) and with a 129.8 QB rating. Wilson completed 33 of 50 passes for 388 yards and three TDs vs Arizona but he also had THREE costly interceptions. Wilson is also a key part of Seattle's rushing attack, running for 237 yards on 8.2 YPC. RB Carson adds a team-high 323 yards on 4.9 YPC and three TDs plus also has 22 receptions with three TDs. Lockett has 45 catches and a team-high seven TDs, while fellow WR Metcalf is the "big play" receiver, with 24 catches, a 21.6 YPC average and five TDs. The two-headed TE duo of Olsen and Dissly combine for 27 catches and two TDs. However, the defense had better get better, fast! "There were so many opportunities to win the football game," Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll said of last Sunday's game, in which a 48-yard touchdown reception by DK Metcalf in overtime was wiped out by a penalty. "We've been in the situation where we count on things to happen in the right place, happen in the right situations and the right complementary play occurs, and we just missed it." QB Russell Wilson added, "I thought we played a great game except for those three plays. Those are my fault. There's so much that we can do, and we have so much confidence. Our confidence is not going to waver. They're a great football team, too. We knew it was going to be a battle." Except for a win over the Rams in Week 5, San Francisco's three other wins have come over the sad-sack Giants and Jets (a combined 1-13) and the Pats, who are beginning to look like a team 'going nowhere!' The 49ers come in with significant injuries on "both sides of the ball," while Russell Wilson comes off losing a game for the first time in his nine-year career when leading by four or more points at halftime. He had been 59-0 in such situations. I'm "all over" the Seahawks! Good luck...Larry |
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11-01-20 | Steelers v. Ravens -3.5 | Top | 28-24 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Month is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET. The Pittsburgh Steelers lost "Big Ben" in Week 2 of 2019 and missed the playoffs for the second consecutive season last year. However, the 38-year-old Roethlisberger is playing with a surgically repaired right elbow in 2020 and is "looking good!" When the Steelers beat the Eagles 38-29 in Week 5, it marked the first time Pittsburgh had opened 4-0 in 41 years (hard to believe but true!). The Steelers have tacked on two more wins since then, 38-7 at home to the Browns and 27-24 at Tennessee, in a 'battle' of unbeatens. When Seattle lost at Arizona in Week 7's SNF, Pittsburgh stood as the last remaining undefeated NFL team (6-0 and 5-1 ATS). The Steelers will carry that mantle into a game at Baltimore on Sunday with the Ravens, who are 5-1, losing only a MNF game to the KC Chiefs (anyone know if KC is any good?). The winner of Sunday's contest will move on as the AFC North's first place team, a game Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin labeled as the league's game of the week. Reasonable enough, don't you think. Good luck...Larry |
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11-01-20 | Colts -2.5 v. Lions | 41-21 | Win | 100 | 79 h 16 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider (Week 8) is on the Ind Colts at 1:00 ET. The Colts signed QB Philip Rivers in the offseason as a FA but while the veteran has completed 69.7% for 1,598 yards, he's thrown just seven TDs with six INTs. However, the 38-year-old veteran came to the rescue in Indy's last game, passing for 371 yards in a 31-27 win over Cincinnati in Week 6. The 4-2 Colts come off a bye week when they travel to Detroit to take on the 3-3 Lions, who have won back-to-back games for the first time since Weeks 2 and 3 of the 2019 season. The Lions beat the hapless Jaguars 34-16 in Week 6 and then edged the Falcons 23-22 last Sunday. Stafford passed for a season-high 340 yards against the Falcons, the first time he's reached the 300-yard mark this year. and also wasn't picked off for the second time this year. Most importantly, Stafford led the Lions on a 75-yard TD drive in just 1:04, capping it with an 11-yard TD pass on the game's final play. The extra-point gave Detroit the win. The Colts are really struggling with their running game, averaging a measly 98.0 YPG on an NFL-low 3.6 YPC. Rookie RB Taylor gets most of the carries and leads with 367 yards but with a modest 4.1 YPC average. While Rivers came up big in Indy's comeback win vs Cincy, he's NOT the Rivers of old and part of that is the team's mediocre at best, receiving corps. However, the Colts are allowing just 288.0 YPG, second to only Pittsburgh for fewest in the NFL. Indy leads the NFL in interceptions with 10 and the team's pass D ranks second-best by allowing 199.7 YPG through the air. As always, points allowed is the most important stat and the Colts allow 19.2 per game, 4th-best in the league. Stafford is used to putting up huge numbers but the Lions have only made three playoff appearances in his seasons prior to 2020. He enters this game 72-81-1 as a starting QB, not including his 0-3 playoff record. TE Hockenson leads with 22 catches and four TDs, although WR Golladay is rounding into form after recovering from a hamstring injury that caused him to miss the team's first two games. Golladay has exceeded the 100-yard mark in the last two victories and now has 20 catches (in four games), averaging 16.9 YPC with two TDs. However, Detroit's running game isn't much better than Indy's, averaging 108.5 YPG on 4.1 YPC. Adrian Peterson may be headed to the HOF but he's no longer an "impact player," rushing for 314 yards on just 3.9 YPC. On the defensive side of the ball, the Lions 27.5 PPG, more than EIGHT points higher than Indy has allowed. Yes, the Lions have won back-to-back games but those wins have come over 1-6 Jacksonville and 2-6 Atlanta. I noted that the last time Detroit had won back-to-back games was in Weeks 2 and 3 of 2019 and in the time between those two, 2-0 streaks, the Lions had gone 2-15 SU and 5-12 ATS. Indy's defense will be the difference in this one and it doesn't hurt that the Colts enter this contest 8-2-1 ATS in their recent matchups against NFC opponents. Detroit winning THREE in a row is too much to ask! Good luck...Larry |
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11-01-20 | Titans v. Bengals +7 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 25 h 11 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET. The Tennessee Titans opened the season 3-0 and then a COVID-19 outbreak had their Week 4 showdown with the Steelers was rescheduled for Week 6. The team's Week 5 game with 4-0 Buffalo was pushed back to a Tuesday night and after winning their first three games by a combined margin of just NINE points (going 0-3 ATS), the Titans routed the Bills 42-16. Tennessee then won a 42-36 OT at Houston, before losing their first game of the season 27-24 to Pittsburgh, The Steelers led that game 27-7 in the late third quarter, before the Titans nearly sent the game to OT but Gostkowski missed a game-tying FG with just 19 seconds left. The Bengals were coming off a 2-14 season in 2019 but drafted Heisman-winner Joe Burrow with the first overall pick of the 2020 Draft, Head coach Zac Taylor is in just his second season but felt like Burrow was the type of QB the Bengals could build around. Cincy is just 1-5-1 but despite MANY flaws, the Bengals are 5-2 ATS and have been "right in" every game except their 24-3 loss at Baltimore. QB Tannehill has been terrific (68.5% / 1,590 yards with 15 TDs and two INTs / 112.3 QB rating) and RB Henry has been his usual self (663 yards / 4.6 YPC / 7 TDs) for the Titans. However, the Titans' D has NOT been good, allowing 401.8 YPG and 25.2 PPG. The team's 'stop unit' can't "make a stop" on third down, as opponents are converting 61 percent of the time, the worst mark for an NFL team in 30 years. Pittsburgh shown a light on just that last Sunday, converting 13 of 18 on third down tries. Joe Burrow gets little help from his running game (98.9 YPG on 3.7 YPC) and the team's only RB of note, Joe Mixon (428 yards), will miss a second straight game with a foot injury. The OL has allowed Burrow to be sacked 28 times but the rookie has still managed to complete 66.6% for 2,023 yards with nine TDs and five INTs. The defense is about as bad as Tennessee's, allowing 27.7 PPG on 395.1 YPG. However, except for that loss at Baltimore, the Bengals have beaten the Jags 33-25 at home, tied the Eagles 23-23 in Philly and and lost FOUR games by margins of just THREE, FIVE, FOUR and THREE points! The Titans have played just two road games in 2020, winning by 16-14 at Denver (2-4) and 31-30 at Minnesota (1-5). Take the points! Good luck...Larry |
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10-31-20 | Ohio State v. Penn State +13 | Top | 38-25 | Push | 0 | 85 h 33 m | Show |
My 9* Big Dog is on Penn St at 7:30 ET. Ohio St lost a razor-close game to Clemson (29-23) in last year's national semifinals and was ranked No. 2 in the AP's preseason poll, just behind No. 1 Clemson. Clemson got 38 first-place votes to Ohio State's 21 and the Buckeyes finished JUST four points shy of the Tigers' overall point-total. Penn St was 11-2 in 2019, finishing No. 7 in the AP's final poll. The Nittany Lions opened No. 7 in the preseason rankings but like Ohio St, didn't play its first game of 2020 until last Saturday. The two Big Ten rivals had vastly different results last weekend, as the Buckeyes routed the Cornhuskers 52-17, while the Nittany Lions were shocked at Indiana, with the Hoosiers pulling off a 36-35 upset in OT. Ohio St visits Happy Valley as the AP's No. 3-ranked team, while Penn St fell to No. 18. Ohio St QB Justin Fields comes off an excellent 2019 season (3,273 passing yards with 41 TDs and just three INTs plus 484 rushing yards with 10 TDs) and picked up right where he lost off last Saturday. He completed 20 of 21 (95.2%) for 276 yards with two TDs and no INTs, while running for 54 yards and adding a third TD on the day. He had two WRs top 100 yards, Wilson on seven catches (129) and Olave on six catches (104). Gone from last season's team is JK Dobbins and his 2,003 rushing yards (on 6.7 YPC with 21 TDs), so matching last season's near-perfect run/pass balance (267 RY / 263 PY) may be difficult. Fields led Ohio St in rushing yards in the game but the team did total 215 yards in 4.5 YPC. Ohio State allowed just 13.7 PPG on 260 YPG in 2019 but allowed Nebraska 370 yards last Saturday, although the 'Huskers only scored 17 points. The Nittany Lions were upset 36-35 at Indiana, as the Hoosiers tied the game with 22 seconds left in regulation on a TD and two-point conversion and then scored another TD and controversial two-pointer to win it in OT (I'd argue Indiana did NOT convert on its two-point try). Penn St allowed just 16.0 PPG on 346 YPG last season so some may ask, how did Indiana score 36 points? Well, I'd like to know how, as well. Penn St held Indiana to a total of just 211 total yards, including 41 rushing yards on 26 attempts (that's 1.6 YPC!). Junior QB Sean Clifford is off a solid sophomore season (2,654 yards with 23 TDs and 7 INTs plus 402 rushing yards and five TDs) and looked very good vs Indiana. He completed 24 of 35 for 238 yards with three TDs (two INTs didn't help) and also led the team with 119 rushing yards on 7.0 YPC and a TD. TE Freiermuth led with seven catches (one TD) and WR Dotson caught six balls for an average of 23.5 YPC with one TD. The running game ground out 250 yards on 4.8 YPC. With Penn State's loss to Indiana last week, Saturday's game between No. 3 Ohio State and No. 18 Penn State has lost some luster but DON'T tell that to Penn St. The Nittany Lions are staring at an 0-2 start for the first time since 2012 and with the specter of losing all championship hopes before November! Penn St beat Ohio St 24-21 here in 2016 but has lost each of the last three meetings. However, those Ohio St wins have been by scores of 39-38, 27-26 (at Penn St) and 29-17, which were all ATS wins by Penn St. I'm not convinced Penn St can pull the upset but feel VERY confident that the Nittany Lions will 'hang in' all game. Take the points! Good luck...Larry |
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10-31-20 | Texas +3.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 46 h 6 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Texas at 4:00 ET. Tom Herman made a HUGE 'splash' at Houston in 2015, leading the Cougars to a 13-1 season which included a 38-24 win over 9th-ranked Florida St as a seven-point underdog. He led Houston to a 9-3 record in 2016 but left before its bowl game to take over at Texas. He's led the Longhorns to THREE straight bowls but his overall record of 25-15 in that three-year span is underwhelming. Texas opened 2020 at 14th in the preseason poll. Mike Gundy took over at Stillwater in 2005 and the Cowboys were just 4-7. However, OSU achieved a winning record in each of the next 14 seasons, fashioning double-digit wins SIX times while going to 14 consecutive bowls (9-5). OSU began 2020 ranked 15th in the AP's preseason poll. Texas opened 2-0 this season but then lost back-to-back games against TCU and Oklahoma, dropping the Longhorns from No. 8 in the AP poll to unranked and on the outer edges of the Big 12 race. However, Texas rebounded for a 26-17 home win over Baylor last Saturday. QB Sam Ehlinger has been terrific, completing 61.6% for 1,481 yards with 17 TDs and just five INTs, as 11 different players have caught at least one TD pass. Texas has a WR trio of Moore (21 catches / 15.6 YPC / 6 TDs), Eagles (12 catches / 15.7 YPC / 3 TDs) and Black just eight catches but a 23.5 YPC) plus TE Wiley has six catches but a 24.5 YPC average. Ehlinger is the team's leading rusher as well with 293 yards on 4.5 YPC with seven TDs. A trio of RBs have added 510 rushing yards, as Texas averages 174.8 YPG on the ground (4.7 YPC). Oklahoma St welcomes Texas to Boone Pickens Stadium 4-0 (3-0 Big 12) and ranked No. 6 in the latest AP poll. OSU won three in a row but then had the team's Oct 17 contest with Baylor postponed after the Bears reported a COVID outbreak on their team. OSU was back on the field this past Saturday and beat then-No. 17 Iowa St 24-21. QB Spencer Sanders, who missed two games after suffering an ankle injury early in the opener against Tulsa, returned to complete 20 of 29 passes for 235 yards with one TD (did have two INTs) but also ran for 71 yards and a score. RB Chuba Hubbard carried 25 times for 139 yards for the Cowboys and now has topped 100 yards in THREE straight (478 rushing yards on 5.1 YPC with 5 TDs on the season). Fellow RB Brown has contributed 229 yards (6.2 YPC), as OSU averages 216.3 YPG on the ground. The Cowboys have typically been known for their explosive offenses but the Cowboys' D checks into this contest allowing just 12.0 PPG, 4th-best among FBS teams which have played at least four games. This is the 35th time the two teams have played (Longhorns own a 25-9 all-time edge) but Oklahoma State has won FOUR of the last five meetings and SEVEN of its last 10 games with the Longhorns. Texas did win 36-30 last year in Austin but the Longhorns haven't won in Stillwater since 2014. So why Texas? To stay relevant, the Longhorns NEED a statement win against Oklahoma State. "I think we're headed towards our 'A' game, and hopefully we can show up and deliver that in Stillwater because we're going to need it," Texas head coach Tom Herman said Monday. "We've got it in us. I know we do. We've been building towards it, for sure." The good news for Texas backers is that Herman's Houston and Texas teams are a money-making 16-6-1 ATS as an underdog, which includes 11 OUTRIGHT upsets. Texas needed OT to edge Texas Tech, then lost a two-point decision to TCU and then lost a 4-OT thriller to Oklahoma in a three-week span. The Longhorns returned from an off week to lead Baylor 27-3 before winning 27-16 in holding the Bears to only 316 yards. I'm with coach Herman in believing Texas will bring its "A" game to Stillwater. Good luck...Larry |
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10-31-20 | LSU v. Auburn +3.5 | 11-48 | Win | 100 | 75 h 9 m | Show | |
My 10* CFB Game of the Month (Oct) is on Auburn at 3:30 ET. Full, detailed analysis by 3:00 ET Thursday afternoon. |
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10-31-20 | Kansas State v. West Virginia -3 | Top | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 77 h 3 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on West Va at 12:00 ET. Chris Klieman was working for Craig Bohl at North Dakota St and when Bohl left to take the Wyoming head coaching job, Klieman took over and won back-to-back FCS national championships in 2014 and '15, lost in the semis in 2016, and then won back-to-back again in 2017 and 2018. He left to take over at Kansas St in 2019, having gone 69-6 in a five-year span with FOUR national championships. He's the 35th head coach in Kansas St history and replaced the legendary Bill Snyder. The Wildcats went 8-5 in 2019, including a 48-41 win at Oklahoma, as a 23 1/2-point underdog. The Wildcats lost their season opener of 2020 at home to Arkansas St (35-31 as more than a two-TD favorite) but have since gone 4-0 SU and ATS, including a second straight win over Oklahoma. The Wildcats beat the Sooners 38-35 as 28-point dogs, winning in Manhattan against Oklahoma for the first time since 1960. Neal Brown spent four years as the head coach at Troy. His first season saw his team go 4-8 but the next three seasons the Trojans went 31-8 overall, including winning all THREE bowl appearances. He was announced as the 35th head football coach of West Va on January 5, 2019 and after a 5-7 first season, the Mountaineers are off to a 3-2 start in 2020. The Mountaineers are coming off a 34-27 loss at Texas Tech but will enter the game as owners of the Big 12's stingiest defense. West Va ranks first in the Big 12 in total defense (261.8 YPG) and in scoring defense (21.8 PPG). Kansas State (currently No. 16 in the latest AP poll) has had a long tradition of excellence on special teams and heading into Saturday's game, the Wildcats have 55 TDs on kickoff or punt returns since 2005, the most in the FBS. Case in point, Phillip Brooks had two first-half punt-return TDs in K-State's 55-14 win over Kansas last week, earning Big 12 Special Teams Player of the Week honors. His 189 punt return yards and two TDs were school records. He is the first player in Big 12 Conference history to return two punts for TDs in the same game. Starting QB Slylar Thompson (a senior) was lost for the season on Oct 3 with freshman Will Howard taking over. He looked only so-so in finishing up K-State's win over Texas Tech and then in a 21-14 win at TCU. However, he looked good last Saturday, completing 17 of 24 for 243 yards with two TDs and no INTs. Then again, the opponent was 0-5 Kansas. RB Deuce Vaughn is the team's offensive star, rushing for 309 yards (5.1 YPC with five TDs) and catching 17 passes in which he's averaged 27.7 YPC and added three more TDs. The K-State defense allowed 35 points in each of its first two games but has held opponents to just 16.3 PPG the last three. I noted above the solid play by West Va's defense and offensively, the Mountaineers have a solid QB in Doege, who is completing 64.1% for 1,389 yards with nine TDs and just three INTs. RB Leddie Brown has 592 yards, averaging 5.8 YPC with seven TDs plus has 19 receptions with two TD catches. WRs Wright (28) and James (23) are possession-type receivers, while Ford-Wheaton has just 13 catches but averages 15.2 YPC with three TDs. I'm not sure about Kansas St QB Howard, while his counterpart (Doege) has thrown for 300-plus yards in each of the last two games. K-State's offense will get its toughest test this season against the West Va D and note that West Va has won FOUR straight against Kansas St including THREE in a row ATS. The unranked team is favored for a reason. Good luck...Larry |
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10-30-20 | Hawaii v. Wyoming +2 | Top | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 63 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* Friday Night Game of the Month is on Wyoming at 9:45 ET. The MWC originally decided to cancel fall football in August but had a change of heart, ala the Big Ten. MCA and Pac 12. The Mountain West released its full 2020 football schedule detailing a plan for most of its 12 schools to play eight league games in an eight-week span starting Oct 24. The plan is to play a conference championship game on Dec 19. The league has abandoning its divisional structure this season, meaning the participants in the championship game will be the two teams with the highest conference winning percentage. Hawaii opened its season last Saturday with a 34-19 win at Fresno St and Wyoming lost 37-34 in OT at Nevada. It's Hawaii vs Wyoming Friday night in Laramie. Hawaii head coach Nick Rolovich left after last season to take the Washington St job and Hawaii hired Todd Graham on January 21, 2020 to become the 24th head football coach in the school history. Graham coached at Rice for one year and then left days after signing an extension to take the Tulsa job. He spent four years there and left for Pittsburgh, where he stayed just one season, leaving controversially for Arizona St. He spent six years at ASU and had been away from college football for two years when he took the Hawaii job. The Rainbow Warriors rolled up 552 yards (323 on the ground on 6.1 YPC) in a 15-point win in their season-opener. QB Cordeiro threw for 229 yards (two TDs) and ran for a team-high 116 yards (8.9 YPC) and another two TDs. However, the defense allowed Fresno St 409 yards but also forced FOUR turnovers (three INTs). Craig Bohl spent 12 years at North Dakota St where he went 104-32, winning FCS national championships in his final three years (2011-13). His first two Wyoming teams went 6-18 but he's won EIGHT games in three of the last four seasons (exception was 6-6 season in 2018), with Wyoming going 'bowling' three times (won the last two). Returning QB Sean Chambers broke his left fibula on the Cowboys' third play from scrimmage against Nevada last week and the redshirt sophomore is out for the season. Levi Williams, who played in three games last season, finished the game going 16 of 31 for 227 yards with one TD and one INT plus ran for two TDs The Cowboys trailed 28-6 in the late second quarter last Saturday but tied the game at 28-all with 8 1/2-minutes to go. Nevada took a 31-28 lead but Wyoming sent the game into OT on a FG with 23 seconds left, before losing in OT. Todd Graham has a checkered past but he's led his teams to 10 bowl berths in his 12 years as a head coach. Hawaii is on the mainland for the second straight week plus I really liked what I saw from Wyoming QB Williams. He led an impressive comeback that just fell short. In Xazavian Valladay (1,265 yards on 5.1 YPC in 2019) he has one of the MWC's best RBs, who ran for a modest 87 yards last Saturday but also caught SEVEN passes. The schools are meeting for just the 5th time as MWC foes, with the home team having gone 4-0 SU. I expect that trend to follow here, as Wyoming was 6-0 SU at home in 2019 and enters this contest with an EIGHT-game winning streak at War Memorial Stadium. Good luck...Larry |
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10-25-20 | Seahawks -3 v. Cardinals | Top | 34-37 | Loss | -124 | 61 h 1 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic play is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:20 ET. The NFL enters its Week 7 with THREE unbeaten teams. The 5-0 Steelers and 5-0 Titans will square off in Nashville at 1:00 ET and the lone remaining unbeaten, the 5-0 Seahawks will play at Arizona vs the 4-2 Cards. The Raiders were scheduled to host the Bucs in Las Vegas for NBC's Sunday Night Football but had to place four starting offensive linemen plus a safety on the reserve/COVID-19 list. All five players were deemed high-risk contacts and the NFL then announced on Thursday that the Raiders' game against the Bucs had been moved to 4:05 ET "out of an abundance of caution to ensure that a game would be available for fans on Sunday Night Football." This Seattle/Arizona contest will now be Week 7's SNF matchup. Seattle QB Russell Wilson is widely considered the front-runner for the NFL's MVP award a third of the way through the season, as he's completing 72.8% for 1,502 yards while leading the league with 19 TD passes (just three INTs) and with a 129.8 QB rating. He also contributes to the Seattle running game, rushing for 153 yards on 6.7 YPC with three TDs. RB Carson is the "featured" back and has 289 rushing yards on 4.7 YPC with three TDs. Carlson also has 21 catches with three more TDs. Wilson has an outstanding group of receivers, as Luckett leads with 30 catches but Metcalf has become the big playmaker with 22 catches, a 22.5 YPC average and five TDs. WR Moore has 10 catches (17.3 YPC and three TDs), while TD Olsen adds 15 catches. Seattle's Achilles' Heel is a defense allowing a league-high 431.2 YPG. With scoring way up this year, at least Seattle isn't one of the NINE teams allowing 30-plus PPG (27.8). Arizona's second-year QB Kyler Murray completed just 9 of 24 attempts against the Cowboys but two went for TDs, including an 80-yarder to Christian Kirk that gave Arizona a 21-0 lead. Murray also rushed for 74 yards and a TD. He's completing 65.9% for 1,487 yards with 10 TDs and six INTs. Those are not quite Wilson-like stats but he's also run for 370 yards (7.3 YPC) with six TDs. RB Kenyan Drake is turning into a solid player, rushing for 4678 yards (4.6 YPC) and four TDs. Future HOF Fitzgerald may have 21 catches but he's averaging only 6.9 YPC without a TD. Hopkins is now the team's "go-to" WR with 47 catches, with Kirk catching 13 passes (18.5 YPC) with three TDs. Arizona owns a HUGE edge on defense, holding opponents to about 100 YPG less than Seattle's D and to just 18.7 PPG (almost 10 PPG less). Seattle will NOT go 16-0, so a loss is coming and it's a fact that THREE of Seattle's five victories have come down to the game's final 15 seconds. However, Seattle is coming off a bye week (covered FIVE of the last seven in that situation), while Arizona is off its MNF win at Dallas. Murray vs Dalton was a mismatch but can Murray outplay Wilson? My bet says no. Good luck...Larry |
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10-25-20 | 49ers v. Patriots -2 | Top | 33-6 | Loss | -116 | 121 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" 37-Club Play is on the NE Patriots at 4:25 ET. The defending Super Bowl champion KC Chiefs have opened the 2020 season 5-1 and sit atop the AFC West. However, KC is the LONE division winner from 2019 to actually lead its division here in 2020, as the season gets set for Week 7. I won't list all of the reigning division winners 'looking up' to at least ONE team in their respective divisions here but WILL discuss TWO of those seven teams, as they meet Sunday in Foxboro. The San Francisco 49ers won the NFC West last season at 13-3 (and advanced to the Super Bowl) but their 3-3 record leaves them in last-place in 2020, behind not only the 5-0 Seahawks but also the 4-2 Rams and Cards. The Pats are more than just the defending AFC East champs, as New England entered 2020 having captured the AFC East title the previous 11 years and in 17 of the last 19 seasons (since 2001). The Pats welcome the 49ers to Gillette Stadium on Sunday with a 2-3 record. New England hasn't been under .500 through the fifth game or later in any season since they were 3-4 in 2002, which was the last season the Patriots did not win 10-plus games. The 49ers just evened their record at 3-3 last Sunday night, beating the Rams 24-16. The 49ers rode the excellent play of QB Jimmy Garoppolo (69.1% for 3,978 yards with 27 TDs and 13 INTs / 102.0 QB rating), the NFC's best running game (144.1 YPG) and the NFC's stingiest defense (281.0 YPG) all the way to the Super Bowl last season. However, injuries have plagued them all season, on both sides of the ball. Garoppolo was completing 67.3% of his passes (4 TDs / 0 INTs) when he got hurt in Week 2. He returned in Week 5 but with the Miami Dolphins up 30-7 at halftime (Niners would lose 43-17), 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan pulled him during the half (concerned for his health). Garoppolo 'was on the money" against the Rams, throwing three first-half TD passes, finishing 23 of 33 for 268 yards without an INT (124.3 QB rating). RB Raheem Mostert also got back in the lineup and ran 17 times for 65 yards before suffering an ankle injury and leaving the game early in the third quarter. TE George Kittle caught seven passes for 109 yards and one TD, as the 49ers offense that did most of its damage in the first half en route to a 21-6 lead. The San Francisco defense, which was last seen serving up 436 yards and 43 points in a blowout home loss to the Miami Dolphins last week, held the Rams to 311 yards, in large part by limiting QB Jared Goff, who finished with a modest 198 passing yards on just 19 of 38 completions. Jason Verrett stalled a Los Angeles Rams third quarter rally with an end-zone interception and a fourth-and-goal (allowing San Francisco to retain a 21-9) and when LA made it a one-score margin on a 40-yard TD pass from Goff with 3:24 to play, the San Francisco offense ran out the clock (Rams never got the ball back). The New England didn't allow a TD in Week 6 but Denver's Brandon McManus kicked a franchise-record SIX field goals to lift the visiting Denver Broncos to an 18-12 victory last Sunday. The game originally scheduled for Oct 12 and was pushed back to this past Sunday due to several COVID-19 cases in the Patriots' organization. New England was unable to hold many practices over the previous two weeks, including having Friday's session canceled due to center James Ferentz being placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list. QB Cam Newton saw his first action since Week 3 and ran for 76 yards and a touchdown and went 17-for-25 passing but for only 157 yards with TWO interceptions. He has options at WR in Edelman (20 catches), Harry (18 catches) and Byrd (17) plus RB White has 165 catches in the last two games. Newton lead the Past with 225 rushing and has five rushing TDs but they'll need better passing number out of him. RB Sony Michel has run for 173 (6.7 YPC) in just three games but was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list for the Denver game (status unknown at this time for Sunday). The New England D did its job vs Denver, allowing just 299 yards plus holding Denver to 4 of 14 on third downs. The Pats D was the best in the league last season but one can't and didn't expect this year's unit to hold opponents to 14.1 PPG, again. Scores are up in 2020 and the Pats are allowing 22.1 PPG (not bad) and rank 9th in total D, allowing 275.9 YPG. The 49ers and Patriots are among the NFL’s most storied franchises with 11 SB titles between them (Pats own six and the Niners five). Garoppolo would NO doubt love to get a victory over the team that drafted him (sat behind Brady from 2014-17) but Newton (a former MVP) has MUCH to prove as well. The clincher for me is, it hasn't been often that one can back Belichick (coming off TWO straight losses) at such a small 'price' and at HOME, no less! The 49ers may be 2-0 on the road in 2020 but those wins have come at MetLife Stadium over the Giants and Jets (a combined 1-11). Good luck...Larry |
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10-25-20 | Browns v. Bengals +3.5 | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 118 h 40 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 7 Las Vegas Insider is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET. It's the "Battle 4 Ohio" Part 2. The Browns won Part 1 back in Week 2 on a Thursday night, 35-30. In that contest, Cincy took a 3-0 lead but Cleveland never trailed after going up 7-3. However, the Bengals "never went away," and Burrow's third TD pass of the game (with 43 seconds left) gave the Bengals the "backdoor cover." Burrow threw for 316 yards and three TDs (zero INTs) in his second career start, while Baker Mayfield threw for 219 yards with two TDs and one INT. The difference in the game was Cleveland's running game, which produced 215 yards (6.1 YPC) compared to Cincinnati's 68 yards on 2.8 YPC. The Browns lead the NFL in rushing (169.5 YPG) with Kareem Hunt (387 yards on 4.7 YPC with three TDs) filling in admirably for starter Nick Chubb (knee), who remains on injured reserve. The Bengals average only 101.8 YPG on the ground, with Joe Mixon doing almost all of the heavy lifting (428 rushing yards / 3.6 YPC / three TDs). The Browns lost their 2020 opener at Baltimore 38-6 but then ripped off FOUR straight wins to open 4-1 for the first time since 1994. The Cleveland offense was terrific in the winning streak, averaging 37.5 PPG. In fact, the Browns scored at least 30 points in each of those four straight wins, marking the first time they had reached that total in four straight games since 1968! However, as I noted last Sunday in winning a 10* play on the Steelers (Rivalry Game of the Year), the Cleveland defense was the team's Achilles' heel. Cleveland entered its game in Pittsburgh allowing 29.8 PPG, which was a TD and two-point conversion higher than what Pittsburgh was allowing (21.8 PPG). The result? A 38-7 rout by the Steelers. The Browns would appear to be on track for their first winning record since 2007 at 4-2 but it doesn't seem that way to QB Baker Mayfield. or wide-receiver OBJ. "The feeling throughout (our) building after that loss -- 4-2 has never felt so much like 0-6 before," Mayfield said. "But that's because we have very high expectations for ourselves." Odell Beckham Jr. added, "I'm pissed. And at this point, I don't really care to keep trying to make myself look like a good guy to the world and all that. ... Tired of losing. Tired of losing to good teams." Mayfield is completing 60.6 percent for 1,095 yards with 10 TDs and six INTs (QB rating of 84.3). Not bad but he was supposed to Cleveland's 'savior.' WRs Landry (24 catches / 13.3 YPC / 0 TDs) and OBJ (23 catches / 13.9 YPC / 3 TDs) have hardly been "as good as advertised." "Tired of losing" is a sentiment that Cincinnati is all too familiar with. The Bengals lost another winnable game last Sunday in a 31-27 setback at the Indianapolis Colts. The now 1-4-1 Bengals jumped out to a 21-0 lead, but lost after a missed fourth-quarter FG and Joe Burrow's interception in the red zone inside the final minute. "I played really well for three quarters and 14 minutes and then had one bad play," said Burrow, who threw for 313 yards. The 2020 NFL Draft's overall No. 1 pick is completing 65.0 percent for 1,617 yards with six TDs and four INTs. He has four 300-yard passing games in six starts this season but has now gone two games without a TD pass (69 attempts). Burrow said after the loss, "Put it behind us and go back to work tomorrow." However, his OL is shaky (he's been sacked 24 times, 2nd-most in the league) and I've already noted the problems with the running game. Of more concern is that Joe Mixon did not practice Wednesday with an injured foot. He rushed for a team season-high 151 yards in the Bengals' lone win in Week 4 vs Jacksonville. After ripping off four straight wins, the Browns were held to just SEVEN points, 12 FD’s and 220 yards at Pittsburgh. Cleveland has now lost to the AFC North's two-best teams, 38-6 at Baltimore and 38-7 at Pittsburgh. OK, the Browns now face the 1-4-1 Bengals but let's remember, they'll arrive in Cincinnati with a defense allowing 31.2 PPG. The Bengals have been "right in" FIVE of six games this season (lone exception being a 27-3 Week 5 loss at Baltimore) plus let me note that Cincinnati has covered 10 of the last 12 games in this series dating back to the midway point of 2014. The home dog 'barks' LOUDLY enough in this one to earn a SU win! Good luck...Larry |
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10-25-20 | Lions v. Falcons -1 | Top | 23-22 | Loss | -128 | 77 h 27 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Atl Falcons at 1:00 ET. The Atlanta Falcons opened 0-5 and that start got head coach Dan Quinn fired. In my opinion, he should have been fired immediately after Atlanta blew a 28-3 lead in Super Bowl LI against the Patriots (New England scored the game's last 31 points to win 34-28 in OT). Raheem Morris spent three seasons as head coach of the Bucs, producing a poor 17-31 record and had just been promoted to DC in Atlanta at the start of 2020. He was named interim head coach after the firing of Quinn and had to be pleased with Atlanta's 40-23 win at Minnesota last Sunday. Detroit's head coach Matt Patricia knows all about 'feeling the heat,' as he went 6-10 in his first season as head coach in Detroit (2018), before going 3-12-1 last season. The Lions ended 2019 on a NINE-game losing skid. Detroit ended its 11-game slide (2-9 ATS) with a 26-23 win at Arizona in Week 3 but lost the following week at home to the Saints. Detroit opened a 14-0 lead but the Saints then scored on their next FIVE possessions to take a 35-14 lead (Saints won 35-29). The Lions did win last Sunday, crushing the sad-sack Jags 34-16 in Jacksonville Lions offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell has used Adrian Peterson, rookie De'Andre Swift and Kerryon Johnson in the backfield. Peterson has received the bulk of the work (285 yards on 4.1 YPC / 2 TDs) but Swift had a breakthrough performance against the Jaguars, rushing for 116 yards on 14 carries and two TDs. I'm not sure where that effort came from, as Swift had run for just 44 yards the first four games. The Detroit running game averages just 117.4 YPG. QB Matthew Stafford always puts up big numbers (he surpassed 4,000 yards passing seven straight seasons from 2011-17) but he's just 71-82-1 as a starter in the regular season plus is 0-3 in three postseason games. He's thrown for 1,240 yards through five games (on pace for just under 4,000 yards) with nine TDs and four INTs but his receiving corps seems pretty mediocre. TE Hockenson leads with 17 catches and three TDs but the WR trio of Golladay (14), Jones (14) and Amendola (12) don't scare any secondary. Matt Ryan, like Stafford, always puts up big numbers (he entered 2020 with NINE straight seasons of 4,000-plus passing yards) but except for Atlanta's 2016 Super Bowl run, he has shown only modest success. Atlanta had a solid running game back in 2016 but the addition of Todd Gurley has not worked out as hoped. He has run for 422 yards (4.3 YPC / 5 TDs) but in the big win over Minnesota last Sunday, he was a non-factor with 47 yards on 20 carries. Who was a factor for Atlanta was WR Julio Jones. It's no secret that Jones makes the Falcons a much more dangerous team. Following a strong opening-day performance against Seattle, Jones missed two games and struggled through two others with a hamstring injury. It was part of the reason why the Falcons started 0-5, However, he caught passes against the Vikings for 137 yards and two TDs. With Jones sidelined or ineffective early on, Calvin Ridley leads the team with 35 catches and five TDs. Fellow WR Gage has 25 catches and TE Hurst has 17 catches with three TDs. Neither the Lions (28.6 PPG) nor the Falcons (30.7 PPG) play much defense, so this game will be decided by which team plays the better offensive game. My bet says that will be Atlanta, as with Jones back, Ryan has WAY more receiving 'weapons' than Stafford and this contest will NOT be decided by either team's running game. The Lions are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings with the Falcons plus getting that "first win of the season," should let the Falcons play with confidence. Atlanta knows it is not making the playoffs this season but being competitive the rest of the way is a reasonable goal. However, losing at home to the Lions would upset the apple cart. The 'apples stay in the cart' for at least one more game. Good luck...Larry |
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10-24-20 | Cincinnati v. SMU -2.5 | Top | 42-13 | Loss | -109 | 38 h 4 m | Show |
My 9* play (Battle of Unbeatens) is on SMU at 9:00 ET. Luke Fickel was an assistant at Ohio St from 2002-16 but on December 10, 2016, was named as the 39th head coach of the University of Cincinnati, taking the place of the resigning Tommy Tuberville. Fickell's Bearcats went just 4-8 in his first season but 2018 would be a historic turnaround for the program, as Cincy finished with an 11-2 record and a 35-31 victory in the Military Bowl over Va Tech. Fickell was named AAC Coach of the Year for the 2018 season, which was only the third 11-win season in UC history. He led the team to another 11-win season in 2019. The Bearcats reeled off NINE straight wins after falling to Ohio State in the second game of the year but fell two straight weeks to Memphis, in the final regular season game and in the conference championship game. However, for the second straight year, Cincinnati won its bowl game over an ACC team, crushing Boston College 38-6 in the Birmingham Bowl. The Bearcats opened the 2020 season ranked 9th in the AP's preseason poll and will travel to Dallas on Saturday night at 3-0 and ranked 9th, when they take on SMU (5-0 and ranked 16th). SMU head coach Sonny Dykes spent three years at La Tech, before getting the head coaching job at Cal, where he flopped (19-30 in four seasons). He got the job at SMU in December of 2017 and in his full season, went 5-7. However, last year's 10-2 regular season got the Mustangs to a bowl game but they were blown out 52-28 by FAU. The team opened 8-0 last season and has now opened 5-0 in 2020 (best B2B starts since the "Pony Express" days of 1983-84). The Bearcats didn't start until Sep 16 but won three consecutive Saturdays) over Austin Peay, Army and USF )not exactly a "murderers' row!"). Cincy had a bye week on Oct 10 but then pulled out of last week's road game at Tulsa two days prior to the scheduled Saturday contest due to an outbreak of COVID-19 cases in the program. QB Ridder is coming off two solid seasons, passing for 2,445 yards and 2,164 yards with 38 TDs and 14 INTs. He's completing 60.3% through three games in 2020 for 597 yards but with six TDs and four INTs (not great). RB Doaks is the team's leading rusher with just 145 yards (3.5 YPC) but has added six catches while averaging 21.7 YPC and grabbing two TDs. WRs Young (9 catches) and Jackson (8 catches) are the team's top pass-catchers. Cincy's defense has allowed 17.2 and 20.6 PPG the last two seasons and is allowing just 12.3 PPG through three games in 2020. Steve Buechele transferred from Texas and the QB threw for 3,929 yards and 34 scores last year (just 10 INTs). He's off to another excellent start this season, completing 67.2 percent for 1,710 yards with 12 TD and just two INTs. WRs Roberson (22 catches / 21.5 YPC / 3 TDs), Rice (24 catches / 17.1 YPC) and Gray (19 catches / 17.4 YPC / 4 TDs) plus TE Granson (17 catches / 2 TDs) give him plenty of targets. The SMU running game has averaged 204.0 YPG (5.1YPC), led by Bentley (506 yards / 6.8 YPC / 8 TDs). The SMU defense is allowing 25.4 PPG and shouldn't have too much trouble with a Cincinnati offense that has shown VERY little, so far. Yes, Luke Fickell's team has another excellent defensive team but SMU averages 42.6 PPG and will 'stretch' the Cincy D here at home, where SMU has won EIGHT in a row while averaging 45.0 PPG. The higher ranked team is an underdog in this one for a reason. Good luck...Larry |
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10-24-20 | Michigan v. Minnesota +3.5 | Top | 49-24 | Loss | -115 | 102 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* Big Ten Game of the Year is on Minnesota at 7:30 ET. The Big Ten returns to the playing field with all 14 teams in action. No. 14 Wisconsin starts things off with a home game against Illinois and SIX games follow on Saturday. The Big Ten is the oldest Division I collegiate athletic conference in the US and currently includes the flagship public university in each of 11 states stretching from New Jersey to Nebraska, as well as two additional public land-grant schools and a private university. It was established in 1895 when Purdue University president James H. Smart and representatives from the University of Chicago, University of Illinois, University of Michigan, University of Minnesota, Northwestern University, and University of Wisconsin gathered at Chicago's Palmer House Hotel to set policies aimed at regulating intercollegiate athletics. Two of that "original seven" (note: University of Chicago left the conference in 1946) meet Saturday in what is surely the most significant contest of the Big Ten's 'Week 1.' when No. 18 Michigan visits No. 21 Minnesota. Michigan's Jim Harbaugh was one of the league's most vocal head coaches in getting the Big Ten to return to play. Now, right out of the box, the Wolverines face a VERY tough first game in Minneapolis against the Golden Gophers. Last year's starting QB Shea Patterson had his critics but he did throw for 3,061 yards with 23 TDs and eight INTs. He graduated and Michigan's projected starter, junior Joe Milton, has thrown only 11 passes the last two seasons. Harbaugh wouldn't commit to Milton as his starter, contending redshirt freshman Cade McNamara is still in the running. The running game averaged just 150.7 YPC (on 4.0 YPC) last season, after averaging about 200 YPG the previous three. The team's top-two RBs return in Charbonnet (726 yards / 4.9 YPC / 11 TDs) and Haskins (622 yards / 5.1 YPC / 4 TDs), as do Michigan's top-two WRs, Bell (48 catches / 15.8 YPC / 1 TD) and Collins (37 catches / 19.7 YPC / 7 TDs). Harbaugh always features a strong defense but for the first time since arriving in Ann Arbor in back in 2015, his "D" allowed more than 20.0 PPG (20.7). While Michigan opens the season with an inexperienced QB, the Gophers have Tanner Morgan, who threw 30 TD passes last season (against only seven INTs) in leading the Golden Gophers to 11 wins (notably, for the first time since 1904), including a 31-24 Outback Bowl victory over Auburn as a seven-point underdog. Leading rusher Smith (1,163 yards / 5.1 YPC / 8 TDs) and record-setting WR Tyler Johnson (86 catches / 1,1318 yards / 13 TDs)) are both gone but RB Mohammad Ibrahim led the team in rushing as a freshman in 2018 with 1,160 yards on 5.7 YPC with nine TDs. He was injured for part of last season but still ran for 604 yards on 5.3 YPC and seven TDs. Minnesota fans will remember that as a freshman, he was the MVP of Minnesota's 34-10 Quick Lane Bowl win by rushing for 224 yards. Rashod Bateman, the team's second-leading receiver a year ago, also returns after catching 60 passes for 1,219 yards (20.3 YPC) and 11 TDs on 60 receptions. DON'T be concerned with Minnesota's offense, which averaged 31.4 PPG (3rd in the Big 10 and 21st nationally). The defense lost its top-three tacklers from a year ago but head coach PJ Fleck has a good feeling about how his defense is progressing Minnesota allowed 22.5 PPG in 2019). "There's going to be a lot of questions that come up every single week," Fleck said. "I'm excited about where our defense is headed. I think I have a good feeling about where we're at, but again you don't know until the lights come on and until these guys are actually playing games." PJ Fleck 'rowed the boat' at Western Michigan back in 2016, leading the Broncos to a 13-1 season. He used that as a 'launching pad' to get the Minnesota job and in his third season at the school, led the Gophers to an 11-win season (1st since 1904), including that impressive win over Auburn in the Outback Bowl. He now gets this HUGE season-opening game with Harbaugh and Michigan, as the last time Minnesota was involved in a matchup of ranked teams to start a season was 1968. As for Harbaugh, I don't know how anyone can consider him anything but a HUGE disappointment in his return to his alma mater. He's 0-5 against Ohio State, losing 62-39 and 56-27 the last two seasons and is 1-7 SU on the road vs ranked opponents in his tenure at Michigan. I'm "all over" the home dog! Good luck...Larry |
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10-24-20 | South Carolina v. LSU -6.5 | Top | 24-52 | Win | 100 | 123 h 49 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on LSU at 7:00 ET. LSU had a "season for the ages" in 2019, going 15-0 en route to winning the national championship. QB Joe Burrow was the runaway winner of the Heisman, as all he did was complete 76.3% for 5,671 yards with 60 TD passes and just INTs. He had an All-Star cast of receivers and Edwards-Helaire (1,441 rushing with 16 TDs plus 55 catches) just may have been the best RB in the nation (I believe the Chiefs may agree with that statement). Almost the entire group of starters were gone but LSU was still ranked No. 6 in the AP's preseason poll. Think the Tigers may have been 'seeded' too high. I'll have plenty to say about LSU in a bit.
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10-24-20 | Alabama v. Tennessee +21.5 | Top | 48-17 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 40 m | Show |
My 9* "Big Dog" is on Tennessee at 3:30 ET. The Alabama–Tennessee football rivalry was always referred to as "The Third Saturday in October." The respective campuses are located approximately 310 miles apart and the game was traditionally played on "the third Saturday in October" each year, prior to the 1992 football season when the SEC split into its Eastern and Western divisions. Once upon a time, before Alabama hired Nick Saban, the Crimson Tide's fabled rivalry game with Tennessee saw the Volunteers dominate their SEC West crossover rival, winning 10 of 12 between 1995 and 2006. However, after Saban took the reins in Tuscaloosa before the 2007 season, it's been all Tide, all the time. Alabama is 13-0 against Tennessee since then, including last year's 35-13 win at home and 11 of those wins have been by double digits. Recent form suggests the second-ranked Tide should make it 14 straight when they visit Neyland Stadium in Knoxville on Saturday for the teams 103rd meeting. However, let's note that the Tide are three-TD favorites and for Alabama backers to win, they'll need a 21-point margin of victory (or more?), to collect the 'CA$H!'
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10-24-20 | Florida State v. Louisville -4 | Top | 16-48 | Win | 100 | 63 h 20 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Louisville at 12:00 ET. Mike Norvell was introduced as the 24th head football coach of the Memphis Tigers on Dec 4, 2015, making him the youngest FBS head coach in the nation at the time of his hiring (aged 34). Norvell had overseen one of the nation's most explosive offenses at Arizona State under Todd Graham. The Tigers would go 8-5, 10-3 and 8-6 his first three seasons and then in 2019, he delivered one of the best seasons in the program's history, as the Tigers went 11–1 in the regular season and then won the AAC championship game over Cincy. As the highest ranked Group of 5 team in the final CFP poll, they were awarded a New Years' 6 bowl berth to the Cotton Bowl against Penn State. However, Norvell didn't wait, accepting the head coaching job at Florida State the day after winning the AAC title game. FSU has seen a 'revolving door' of head coaches since Jimbo Fisher left and Norvell took over a team off back-to-back losing seasons Not much had gone right for the Seminoles in 2020, who opened 1-3 with that lone win coming over Jacksonville St. However, the Seminoles upset then-No. 5 North Carolina 31-28 last Saturday. FSU is on the road this Saturday to take on Louisville. Louisville had to replace Heisman-winner Lamar Jackson after the 2018 season (he won the Heisman in 2017) and the Cardinals went from 8-5 to 2-10. However, Scott Satterfield came to the rescue for the start of the 2019 season. He had led Appalachian St to four straight bowl bids from 2015-18, going 40-11 (.784), overall. Satterfield restored some glory to the program in 2019, as Louisville had a six-game improvement by going 8-5 (best turnaround by a Power-5 school), including a 38-28 bowl win over Miss St. The Cardinals were unranked in the AP's preseason poll but were solid in their season-opening 35-21 win. Louisville allowed three TDs in that contest but the Hilltoppers were held to just 12 FDs and only 248 total yards! Western Ky's first two TDs came on 'drives' of ONE and FOUR yards, following a dropped snap by the punter and a blocked punt. The third score came on a 37-yard run against backups late in the fourth quarter. That win saw Louisville rise to No. 18 in the AP poll but NOTHING has gone right since, as the Cardinals will enter on a FOUR-game slide. FSU has used three QBs so far but redshirt sophomore Jordan Travis had 204 passing yards and 96 rushing yards against Notre Dame in his first career start. FSU lost 42-26 but the Louisville transfer displayed playmaking skills. Travis then threw for 191 yards (on just eight completions) and one TD plus ran 16 times for a career-high 107 yards and two TDs in the upset of North Carolina, Florida State took a big early lead (up 31-7 at the half) but had to hold on for a 31-28 win. The Tar Heels had a chance for a tying FG late but a wide-open drop on what would have been a first down on a fourth down pass, ended the rally. Travis is completing just 54.0% of his passes but leads the team in rushing (342 yards / 5.8 YPC / 4 TDs). A trio of RBs contribute between 160 and 262 yards for a team averaging 183.4 YPG on the ground. However, the FSU defense is allowing 32.4 PPG. Louisville's season unraveled quickly after its win over Western Kentucky. The Cardinals lost 47-34 at home to then-No. 17 Miami, before playing three straight road games. Louisville was outplayed at then-No. 21 Pitt but lost just 23-20. An embarrassing 46-27 loss at Ga Tech followed but the team HAS to be encouraged by its 12-7 loss at then-No. 4 Notre Dame last Saturday. QB Cunningham is completing 62.2 percent for 1,118 yards with 10 TDs and five INTs, while adding three rushing TDs. RB Hawkins has 519 rushing yards (ranks 4th nationally) on 5.2 YPC with three TDs. WR Atwell is "a player," with 29 catches and four TDs. The Louisville defense really stepped up at Notre Dame, holding the Irish to 338 yards and 12 points (ND entered averaging 40.3 PPG). "There's a fine line from winning or losing," Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield said. "You have to do the little things correctly in order to give yourself a chance to win. You can go back to last year; how many were so close that we could've won or lost. This year we've been on the short end of those sticks." I'm sure QB Jordan Travis is motivated to face his old team but that motivation works BOTH ways. FSU is allowing 475 YPG and THREE of their four ACC foes have topped 500 yards. Meanwhile, Louisville is allowing only 379 YPG. The game will be Louisville's first at home since that 47-34 loss to then-No. 17 Miami back on Sep 19 and the "desperate for a win" Cardinals catch Florida St off its upset over North Carolina, snapping a seven-game regular season losing streak against top-10 opponents that had gone back to 2016. Louisville is the play. Good luck...Larry |
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10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys +1.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the Dal Cowboys at 8:15 ET. The Dallas Cowboys opened NFL 2020 with a new head coach for the first in a decade, as Mike McCarthy (a Super Bowl winner at Green bay in the season) took over for Jason Garrett. He inherits what most people believe is one of the NFL's most talented rosters but the team owned just ONE playoff victory in the past half-decade. As Dallas gets set to welcome the Arizona Cardinals to "Jerry's House" for a MNF game which wraps up Week 6, one could say truthfully, that the Cowboys sit atop the NFC East. However, a closer look reveals that the Cowboys have attained their "high perch" only because the other three teams in the division are a combined 3-14-1! Dallas is just 2-3 and more notably, 0-5 ATS (only the 'minor league' Jets are worse, going 0-6 SU & ATS!). The Arizona Cardinals visit Arlington at 3-2 but reside in one the NFL's toughest (meaning best) divisions. Seattle is atop the NFC West at 5-0, the Rams are 4-2 and the defending NFC champion 49ers are 3-3. The Cards are led by former Heisman-winner Kyler Murray, who is completing 69.6% for 1,299 with eight TDs but also six INTs (QB rating of 90.9). Murray also makes plays "with his legs," rushing for 296 yards (on 7.2 YPC) with four TDs. Kenyon Drake is the team's top RB with 314 yards but averages only 3.7 YPC. With Murray's help, Arizona is rushing for 141.0 YPG, an excellent number. Future HOF Larry Fitzgerald has 28 catches but he's no longer a playmaker, averaging just 6.8 YPC. DeAndre Hopkins is now 'the big dog' of the receiving corps, with 45 catches and three TDs. A greatly improved defense may be the biggest storyline in 2020 for Arizona, as the Cards ranked last in the NFL in 2019, allowing 402.0 YPG. However, the Cards have cut that figure to 346.6 YPG and more importantly, are allowing 20.4 PPG, after allowing 27.6 PPG in 2019. This game is when the Cowboys formally begin life without QB Dak Prescott, whose season is over after he sustained a compound fracture and dislocation of his right ankle during last Sunday's game against the NY Giants. Prescott had passed for an NFL-leading 1,856 yards and was the driving force in making the Cowboys No. 1 in total offense (488.0 YPG), while ranking third in scoring (32.6 PPG) through Week 5. Stepping in will be veteran Andy Dalton (more on him in a bit). Zeke has 364 yards rushing and five TDs but is averaging only 4.1 YPC. WR Amari Cooper has 39 catches but averages just 10.9 YPC and has just one TD reception. However, Dalton also has three more VERY good options. Rookie WR CeeDee Lamb has 29 catches (14.9 YPC / 2 TDs) and fellow WR Gallup has 17 catches (20.5 YPC ab]nd one TD). Then there is TE Schultz, who has 19 receptions (11.8 YPC / 2 TDs). Defense HAS been a big problem and why the Cowboys are 0-5 ATS. No "Doomsday Defense" these days, as the team is allowing 404.4 YPG (29th through Week 5), while allowing 36.0 PPG (32nd of 32 teams!). Murray has proven he can play at this level but the Arizona running game doesn't give him much cover. Take away Murray's 296 rushing yards on 7.2 YPC and Arizona RBs have contributed just 409 yards (that's 81.8 YPG) on 3.8 YPC. Making 'life' more difficult for the Cards here, is that they are playing on the road for the THIRD consecutive week. Getting back to Dalton, I expect him to "fit right in" with this talented offense. He was 9 of 12 for 111 yards in relief last week and I believe will THRIVE. He got a "bad rap" in Cincy. He took the Bengals to the playoffs in each of his first four seasons and had the team at 10-3 when his 2015 season ended due to an injury. Yes, Cincy lost in the wild card round in each of those five consecutive postseason appearances (Dalton was 0-4 with just one TD pass and six INTs) but c'mon. When he arrived in Cincy as a rookie in 2011, the franchise had missed the playoffs in 18 of the previous 20 seasons, winning for games or less in EIGHT of those seasons, including going 4-12 the year before he got there. Dalton turned things around to 9-7 as a rookie and then led the Bengals to 10-plus wins the next FOUR seasons. Is Dalton as talented as Prescott, no. However, don't be surprised if the Cowboys win seven or eight of their final 11 games with him starting. For tonight, Dallas wins impressively. Good luck...Larry |
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10-18-20 | Rams v. 49ers +3.5 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 81 h 11 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic play is on the SF 49ers at 8:20 ET. The LA Rams went 13-3 and represented the NFC at the Super Bowl in the 2018 season (lost to the Pats) but it was the SF 49ers who went 13-3 last season and made the Super Bowl, only to lose to the Chiefs. The Rams used a two-game sweep over its California rival to capture the NFC West in 2018 and the 49ers "returned the favor" with a two-game sweep of the season series in 2019. The teams meet on SNF in Week 6 at Levi's Stadium with the Rams off to a 4-1 start, while the 49ers check in at just 2-3. Seattle sits atop the NFC West at 5-0 and even the Arizona Cards have 'thrown their hat in the ring,' by opening 3-2. LA's Jared Goff has started strong, completing 71.7% for 1,372 yards with eight TDs and three INTs (QB rating of 108.8). He has two talented WRs in Kupp (28 catches / 2 TDs) and Woods (23 catches / 2 TDs) plus TE Higbee has 15 catches and a team high three TD grabs. LA sure doesn't miss RB Gurley, as the team's two-headed RB tandem of Henderson (260 yards) and Brown (213 yards) has the Rams averaging 139.6 YPG on the ground (7th), well above the 93.7 YPG (26th) the team averaged last season. The LA defense is also improved , allowing 18.0 PPG, down from 22.8 PPG last season. The 49ers rode the excellent play of QB Jimmy Garoppolo (69.1% for 3,978 yards with 27 TDs and 13 INTs / 102.0 QB rating), the NFC's best running game (144.1 YPG) and the NFC's stingiest defense (281.0 YPG) all the way to the Super Bowl. However, injuries have plagued them all season, on both sides of the ball. Garoppolo was completing 67.3% of his passes (4 TDs / 0 INTs) when he got hurt in Week 2. He returned last week but with the Miami Dolphins up 30-7 at halftime (Niners would lose 43-17), 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan pulled him during the half (concerned for his health). RB Raheem Mostert also returned and while the 49ers were embarrassed at home by Miami, Mostert ran for 90 yards on 11 carries (he has 238 yards on 7.0 YPC on the season). TE Kittle has been back the last two games and while he had just four catches in the rout, he had 15 catches the previous week vs Philly. WR Bourne has 15 catches in playing all five games (15.1 YPC) but the 49ers need WR Samuel to return to his rookie form. Is this the week? The defense has had a drop-off (no Bosa is HUGE) but even after last week's debacle, check in allowing 22.8 PPG on 323.0 YPG (not terrible numbers, by any stretch). Here's the bottom line. With Seattle at 5-0 (is on a bye week) and the Rams at 4-1, the last-place 49ers would fall to 2-4 with a loss in this one, with the Rams moving to 5-1. After going 7-1 SU at home last season, the 49ers are 0-3 at home so far in 2020 and this marks their THIRD straight home game. Talk about a "must win," if San Francisco has ANY designs on making the playoffs this season. Home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one! Good luck...Larry |
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10-18-20 | Packers v. Bucs +1.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 28 h 33 m | Show |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the TB Bucs at 4:25 ET. It's a 'Battle of the Bays' on Sunday from Raymond James Stadium, as well as a showdown between two of this era's greatest QBs, Rodgers and Brady. The Green Bay Packers are 4-0 (also 4-0 ATS) and come off a bye week to meet the 3-2 Tampa Bay Bucs, who struggled to finish off their drives in a 20-19 Thursday Week 5 loss at Chicago. Those surprising Bears are 4-1 and right behind the Packers in the NFC North, while Tampa Bay is in a three-way tie for first in the NFC South with New Orleans and Carolina. The Packers got good news this week, as their No. 1 WR Davante Adams will return for Sunday's game. Adams has sat out Green Bay's last two games with a hamstring injury, but had caught 17 passes for 192 yards with two TDs before sustaining his injury in a 42-21 rout of Detroit back on Sep 21. Adams has averaged 86 catches per season the last four years, while catching 40 TD passes. Getting Adams back is truly great news but with or without Adams, the Packers have had some start to the season. They are averaging a league-high 38.0 PPG, while ranking second in total offense (454.3 YPG), fourth in rushing (150.8 YPG) and fifth in passing (303.5 YPG). It's hard to argue against Brady being the G.O.A.T. but Rodgers is a special QB and in 2020 he's completed 70.5% for 1,214 yards with 13 TDs and not a single INT in 139 attempts. His QB rating of 128.4 is topped by only Russell Wilson's 129.8 RB Aaron Jones is having a terrific season, rushing for 374 yards (5.8 YPC) with four TDs, while catching 15 passes for two more TDs. Green Bay's defense has been pretty mediocre in allowing 25.3 PPG but when one's offense is averaging 38.0 PPG, it's good enough for the team to have an average margin of victory of 12.7 points (now wonder the Packers are 4-0 ATS). The Bucs signed Brady to a two-year, $50 million contract in fully guaranteed money, despite the fact that he turned 43 in August. I guess that's the going rate for a six-time Super Bowl-winning QB. The biggest post-game talk in Tampa Bay's loss in Chicago was that Brady appeared to forget the downs on his team's last unsuccessful series, Not sure if that was the case or not but things went awry for him and the offense well before then. The Bucs committed 11 penalties and its OL not only allowed Brady to be sacked three times but he was pressured on a "way too high" percentage of his 41 passes. The Buccaneers scored 10 points in the first quarter, and couldn't match that for the game's remainder. I mentioned the team's inability to finish off drives at the top and that's reinforced by Tampa Bay settling for four FGs, three from inside of 40 yards. Brady's completed 64.3 % of his passes for 1,375 yards with 12 TDs and four INTs and has looked better than he did in his last couple of regular seasons with the Pats. RB Ronald Jones may not be quite as good as Green Bay's Aaron, but he has 359 rushing yards (4.9 YPC) and 15 catches, as well. WR Mike Evans has become Brady's favorite target, catching 22 passes with five TDs. Fellow WR Miller has 15 catches and averages a team-best 16.7 YPC. TE Howard (11 catches with two TDs) is sidelined but Gronk has 10 of his 12 catches this season in the last three games. Tampa's defense is allowing just 2898.2 YPG (second-best in the NFL), which is just over 80 yards less than last season's 'stop unit.' The Bucs allowed 27.8 PPG last season but that's down to a more respectable 22.4 PPG allowed in this VERY high-scoring season. |
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10-18-20 | Browns v. Steelers -3 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 73 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Game of the Year is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET. AFC North contests between the Browns and Steelers have always been heated given the teams' proximity and history but this first of two meetings here in 2020 draws extra meaning because the Browns have opened 4-1 for the first time since 1994 and the 4-0 Steelers are one of just FOUR unbeaten NFL teams. The QB matchup has more than a little intrigue as well, with some believing that Baker Mayfield (at 25) is blossoming into the franchise QB the Browns have been seeking for years. On the Pittsburgh side, the 38-year-old Ben Roethlisberger has bounced back from elbow surgery a year ago to post a QB rating of 110.4 through four games, which would be teh highest for a career that began back in 2004 (note: Baker was NINE years old in 2004!). It's also a game between the NFL top rushing offense (Cleveland is averaging an NFL-best 188.4 YPG) going up against the NFL stingiest rush defense (Pittsburgh is allowing 64.0 YPG on the ground. The Cleveland defense is clearly the team's Achilles' heel, allowing 29.8 PPG, which is a TD and two-point conversion higher than what Pittsburgh allows (21.8 PPG). However, since losing in Week 1 by the score of 38-6 to the Ravens, the Cleveland offense has been terrific, averaging 37.5 PPG. The Browns have scored at least 30 points in each of their four straight wins, the first time they have reached that total in four straight games since 1968 (can you say Leroy Kelly and Bill Nelson?). Baker Mayfield had a promising rookie season in 2018 (27/14 TD-to INT ratio and 93.7 QB rating) and Cleveland's 2019 season looked promising. However, Mayfield was awful through the season's first eight games, throwing just seven TD passes with 12 INTs as the Browns went 2-6. They did win FOUR of their next five games (Mayfield had an 8-4 ratio) but the Browns lost their final three games to finish 6-10 (it didn't help that the Cleveland D allowed 34.0 PPG in those final three games). As for Mayfield, he ended his 'sophomore' season with 22 TDs, 21 INTs and a 77.8 QB rating (far off his 'freshman' numbers!). However, since that Week 1 loss, Mayfield has turned into more of a "game-manager." He's completing 61.2% for 976 yards with nine TDs and four INTs. Those certainly aren't eye-popping numbers but they represent the efficiency and dependability that had been missing from Cleveland's QB position for what seemed like an eternity. Whether it's Hunt (347 yards on 5.0 YPC with 3 TDs / 11 catches with three TDs) or Chubb (335 yards on 5.9 YPC with 4 TDs). WRs OBJ (21 catches with three TDs) and Landry (21 catches but zero TDs) are quality targets but late Thursday afternoon it was announced that OBJ was sent home with an unexplained illness. Big Ben is completing 69.9% for 1,016 yards with 10 TDs and just one INT (see above for his QB rating). RB Snell filled in for a less-than-100 percent James Connor in Week 1 with 113 yards but Connor then topped 100 yards rushing in consecutive games (Weeks 2 and 3) for the first time since the first half of 2018 (224 yards on 5.6 YPC with two TDs). However, he did have just 44 rushing yards with one TD in last week's win. WRs JuJu Smith-Shuster (21 catches / 3 TDs) and Diontae Johnson (15 catches / 1 TD) are part of a young and diverse pass-catching group that saw rookie which also features rookie Chase Claypool, who had a breakout game vs the Eagles last Sunday. The Notre Dame product caught SEVEN passes for 110 yards with three TDs plus added a rushing tD. He now has 13 catches on the season, averaging 20.1 YPC with four receiving TDs. I noted Pittsburgh's rush D at the top but will add here that the Steelers rank third in the league in total defense, allowing 301.5 PPG. I don't know the status of OBJ but Cleveland is also dealing with the following. Mayfield came out of last weekend's 32-23 win over Indianapolis with tender ribs and was limited in practice Wednesday, saying he was "sore ... but that is why we have the rest of the week until game day." In addition to Mayfield, safeties Ronnie Harrison (concussion) and Karl Joseph (hamstring) and receiver Jarvis Landry (hips/ribs) were out Wednesday, although head coach Kevin Stefanski said he expects Landry to return to practice this week. RB Kareem Hunt (thigh), who has been carrying the load with Nick Chubb hurt, was limited Wednesday. This matchup surely qualifies as a rivalry but it sure is a ONE-SIDED one. Here's the rub. The Steelers have dominated this series dating back to 2004 (Big Ben's rookie year) with a 27-4-1 SU record (not much of an impost in this one!). Pittsburgh was a perfect 3-0 ATS in 2019 in home games inside the NFC North, while the Browns are a 'money-burning' 11-20 ATS in their last 31 games against their NFC foes. That includes a blowout loss at Baltimore in Week 1 and a win but non-cover at home vs the Bengals in Week 2. Lay the MORE than reasonable price! Good luck...Larry |
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10-17-20 | Georgia v. Alabama -6 | Top | 24-41 | Win | 100 | 88 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on Alabama at 8:00 ET. IMPORTANT UPDATE: I posted this play BEFORE the news that Nick Saban tested positive for COVID-19. The line has dropped since the news and quite honestly, I like the play even more. Saban has prepared his team for a game like this and I expect there be to be a "Win one for the Gipper" mentality running through the veins of all Alabama players. As they say in golf, "Play Away!" Four of the nation's 10 college football conferences decided not to play fall football this season back in August, including the Big Ten and the Pac 12. While those conferences have reversed their decisions, none of those teams have yet to begin play (that changes very soon). The Big Ten and Pac 12 featured schools in the AP preseason top-25, so the fall out from that has been WAY fewer early season matchups between top25 opponents. In fact, there have been just 10 games played so far in 2020 in which top-25 opponents have squared off. The paucity of top-25 matchups continues this Saturday, with just ONE game featuring top-25 opponents. However, it's fair to say it's a "Big One," as No. 3 Georgia visits No. 2 Alabama Saturday night (8:00 ET on CBS) in Tuscaloosa. These two national powers haven't met in the regular season since 12105 and believe it or not, the last time the Bulldogs played in Tuscaloosa was 2007. That happened to be Nick Saban's first season with Alabama and Georgia won 26-23 in OT. Saban's first season didn't go very well, as Alabama ended the regular season with a 6–6 record, including a four-game losing streak, featuring a particularly humiliating loss at home to ULM-Monroe and a SIXTH straight loss to Auburn in the Iron Bowl. The Crimson Tide did defeat Colorado in the 2007 Independence Bowl 30–24, to end the year 7–6. Just in case you may be unaware, Saban's done pretty well since then. I don't have time to chronicle his entire record but will note that Saban's won FIVE national s]championships at Alabama since his first, back in 2009 (his third season at Tuscaloosa). Georgia knows all about competing for a national title in that same time frame but the Bulldogs have yet to capture a single title since winning the 1980 national championship led by a freshman Herschel Walker. Ohio State and Georgia were crowned national champions back in 1942 and Georgia claims it as so in its record books. In fairness, Georgia defeated UCLA in the Rose Bowl on January 1, 1943, as NINE ranking authorities listed in the NCAA record books placed the Bulldogs as No. 1. However, don't try to 'sell' that to Ohio St, which Ohio State was named No. 1 in the final AP Poll at the end of November and did not make a bowl appearance. Now to Saturday's game. The Bulldogs expected Wake Forest graduate transfer Janmie Newman to lead its offense in 2020 but he "opted out" before the start of the season due to COVID-19 concerns. Stepping in is junior Stetson Bennett, who had just 27 pass attempts in 2019 for the Bulldogs. He's completed 63.1% for 689 yards through three games, throwing five TDs, while NOT throwing an interception in 84 attempts. His "go-to" receiver is Jackson, who has 19 catches (15.8 YPC( and one TD. A trio of other WRs have combined for 19 catches as well, averaging only 10.2 YPC. The running game is averaging 172.0 YPG but only 3.8 YPC. White is the team's top RB and he's scored four TDs but has a modest 209 yards and averages just 3.9 YPC. Georgia owns an excellent defense, which helped them open 2-0 with a 37-10 win at Arkansas and a 27-6 home win over then-No. 7 Auburn. Georgia found itself down 21-17 to Tennessee at the half last Saturday but scored 27 points in the second half, while its defense allowed only 71 yards and four FDs after halftime. The Bulldogs held the Volunteers, who came in ranked 14th to minus-1 yard on 27 rushes. The Georgia defense ranks first nationally in rushing defense (38.3 YPG), second in total defense (236.7 YPG) and is tied for fifth in scoring defense (12.3 PPG) but will surely be tested by Alabama's offense Saturday night, as the Crimson Tide lead the nation with an average of 51.0 PPG (note: Alabama put up 723 yards last Saturday vs Ole Miss!). QB Mac Jones has seamlessly replaced Tua, completing 79.5% for 1,101 yards (that's 367 per) with eight TD passes and just one INT. He is the national leader in passing efficiency with a QB rating of 220.3. I took the "big points" (24.5 to be exact) last Saturday with Ole Miss against Alabama and easily cashed. Alabama led just 49-45 with under 3 1/2 minutes, before winning 63-48. I wrote in that game analysis that Alabama's running offense had struggled through its first two games, averaging only 110.0 YPG on 3.4 YPC. However, that all changed last Saturday, as Najee Harris rushed for 206 yards and a school-record five TDs. (he now has 10 TDs after just three games / he ran for 1,224 yards on 5.9 YPF with 13 TDs last season). WR Jeudy is now in the NFL but wideouts DeVonta Smith ( 68 catches / 14 TDs in 2019) and Jaylen Waddle are back. Smith leads with 27 catches and Waddle has 19, averaging 20.8 YPC. Then there is Mitchie, who has a more modest 11 catches but averages 27.1 YPC! There is no denying that Alabama's defense is not up to past standards (it's not even close!).The Alabama D had been 'soft' the first two games, allowing 386.0 YPG, compared to 294 YPG the previous seven seasons. It then got BLASTED last Saturday, as the Tide gave up a school record 643 yards to fast-paced Ole Miss. However, Georgia's offense is pedestrian compared to that of Ole Miss. In fact, Bennett was the Bulldogs' fourth choice at QB in the offseason. However, first Newman opted out of the season, USC transfer J.T. Daniels wasn't medically cleared for the opener and D'Wan Mathis lasted only 17 passes as the starter before Bennett got his shot. The record is clear, Saban is 21-0 against his former assistants, after besting Lane Kiffin last Saturday. 'Bama was laying more than three TDs against Ole Miss, so a 15 point win was NOT enough to "get the ca$h! Alabama has won the last FIVE meetings with Georgia, with current Georgia head coach Kirby Smith, who was an Alabama assistant under Saban from 2007 to 2015, going 0-2. In the first 'Titanic' matchup of the 2020 college football season, Saban moves to 22-0 against his former assistants, while Smart falls to 0-3 against his former boss and the margin will be "significantly" higher than the posted pointspread. Roll Tide! Good luck...Larry |
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10-17-20 | Texas A&M v. Mississippi State +7 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -115 | 84 h 50 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Miss St at 4:00 ET. Texas A&M opened its season with a highly-disappointing 17-12 home win over Vandy, a team which has since lost two more games, allowing 41 points in each. Next up was a trip to Alabama, where the Aggies fell 52-24 (Alabama QB Mac Jones passed for a career-high 435 yards and four TDs). A&M badly needed a win last Saturday at home vs No. 3 Florida (I had the Aggies!) and got it, upsetting the Gators 41-38. A&M's running game proved to be the difference as the Aggies totaled 205 rushing yards on the ground, led by Isaiah Spiller's 174 yards and two TDs on 27 carries. Senior QB Kellen Mond completed 25 of 35 passes for 338 yards and three TDs, as Texas A&M totaled 543 yards on offense. The Aggies are on the road this Saturday to Starkville, Ms for a game with Mississippi St. Mike Leach had some coaching debut with the Bulldogs back on Sep 26, opening with a 44-34 win at defending champion LSU. He brought his "Air Raid" offense to the SEC and QB Costello, a graduate transfer from Stanford, shredded the LSU pass D for an SEC record 623 yards passing. However, does the phrase "how the mighty have fallen" ring a bell? Since that season-opening win, Costello and the Bulldogs have lost at home to Arkansas (Razorbacks snapped a 20-game SEC losing streak with the win) and then lost 24-2 at Kentucky, a game in which Costello was benched. Mond is a quality QB, who enters completing 62.5% for 845 yards with seven TDs and just one INT. Spiller is a solid RB and has chipped in 316 yards, while averaging 6.9 YPC. TE Wyderman leads the team with 15 catches, while WR Chapman leads with three TD receptions among his 14 catches. However, the A&M defense has NOT looked very good (the Vandy game doesn't count!), allowing a combined 90 points on 946 yards against Alabama and Florida. Miss St has a non-existent running game, averaging only 38.1 YPG on 2.1 YPC. However, Leach has been winning games for decades with his "Air Raid" offense. Costello has just one TD and seven ITNs the last two games but this guy was a solid QB at Stanford. The LSU game will NEVER be repeated but I expect him to bounce back here. The Miss St defense has played the last two weeks, allowing just 275 yards to Arkansas and then ONLY 157 to Kentucky. A&M's win last week over No. 3 Florida was its first win over an AP top 5-ranked team in the three-year tenure of coach Jimbo Fisher. Texas A&M had previously gone 3-8 against AP ranked teams under Fisher. I 'smell' a let down and note that Miss St has beaten A&M handily in each of the Aggies last three visits to Davis Wade Stadium, 48-31 (-2.5), 35-28 (+ 10.5) and 28-13 (-1.5). Typical of Leach's teams in his eight seasons at Washington State was for them to play its best against the toughest competition but come up wanting against apparently lesser opponents. Upset alert! Good luck...Larry |
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10-17-20 | Duke v. NC State -4 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 106 h 11 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on NC State at 3:30 ET. Football in the ACC is unlike basketball. Duke and North Carolina State are just 20 miles apart and play in the same conference but the schools have stopped meeting annually once the ACC expanded and went to a divisional format 15 years ago. They have played only THREE times since then (this will be the fourth meeting), with their last meeting coming back in 2013. David Cutcliffe arrived at Duke for the 2008 season (from Ole Miss) but the team had a losing record his first five seasons, although Duke did go 6-6 in 2012 but lost its bowl game to end 6-7. However, the Blue Devils would put together FIVE winnings season the next six years, going to a bowl game in all five winning seasons. Duke was just 5-7 last season but with three home games to open the 2020 season (MTSU, Elon and Charlotte). The Blue Devils were counting a 3-0 start to propel them to a winning season. So much for that, as COVID-19 has scrambled so many schools' schedules. Dave Doeren is in his 8th season at NC State and after a 3-9 'rookie' year,' led the Wolfpack to FIVE straight winning seasons and bowl berths (3-2). NC St opened 4-2 in 2019 but lost its final SIX games (also 0-6 ATS), finishing 4-8. TEN starters returned on offense, so it was expected that NC St's PPG (just 22.1 last season) would significantly improve in 2020. After all, the Wolfpack averaged 30-plus PGG in FOUR of the five seasons during their bowl streak (2014-18). NC St knows all about how COVID-19 has impacted a team's schedule. The Wolfpack's original September schedule had them playing at Louisville and Troy, with home games against Miss St and Delaware. NONE of the schools are on NC St's 2020 schedule. Duke opened the 2020 season losing FOUR in a row, as its defense allowed 32.3 PPG. However, the Blue Devils finally broke into the win column by winning on the road at Syracuse 38-24 last Saturday. Duke showed some offense in the Syracuse game, as the Blue Devils had 645 total yards (third-highest total in program history) and made 36 FDs. The team ran for 363 yards, as Jackson (169 yards / 5.6 YPC) and Mataeo Durant (163 yards / 7.1 YPC and two TDs) became the first pair of Blue Devils ever to rush for more than 150 yards in the same game. However, Duke's junior QB Chase Brice has been inconsistent in 2020, completing only 53.9% of his passes with five TDs and eight INTs. As noted above, Duke's D is not much of a 'stop unit' and let's not put too much stock in the Blue Devils' win over Syracuse, which is just 1-3 with all three losses coming by double digits. NC State QB Devin Leary was still recovering from COVID-19 at the opening of the season and did not play in the Wolfpack's season-opening 45-42 win over Wake. NC St lost its second game of the season 45-24 at Va Tech, with Leary seeing his first action by going 12 of 16 for 165 yards with one TD and no INTs in relief. He started the following game at then-No. 24 Pittsburgh, leading the Wolfpack to a 30-29 upset win. He threw for 336 yards with four TD passes. He did not have a good game last Saturday in NC St's 38-21 win over UVa (as a TD underdog!), completing just 11 of 25 for 184 yards with two TDs and one INT. The 'star of the game' was NC St's defense, which forced four turnovers, had SIX sacks and held Virginia to just four conversions on 18 third down attempts. The Wolfpack converted those four Cavalier turnovers into 17 points and out rushed UVa by nearly 100 yards. This is NC State's first home game in just about a month (hosted Wake back on Sep 19). Leary enters this game with seven TDs and just one INT and the defense has 18 sacks on the season (after getting SIX last Saturday), while the team's veteran OL has not given up a sack in either of the last two games. Great spot for NC St to win and win "by a margin!" Good luck...Larry |
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10-17-20 | Ole Miss -1.5 v. Arkansas | Top | 21-33 | Loss | -108 | 60 h 28 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Ole Miss at 3:30 ET. It's a pair of 1-2 SEC teams meeting in Fayetteville on Saturday, as Ole Miss visits Arkansas. B0th schools have new head coaches this season, Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss and Sam Pittman at Arkansas. Legendary Raiders' owner Al Davis hired Lane Kiffin back on January 23, 2007, making the 31-year-old the youngest head coach in the NFL's "modern era" (since 1946). The "Boy Genius" would go 4-12 in his first season and then after opening 1-3 in his second season, was fired. He's since made a one-year controversial 'stop at Tennessee, spent three-plus seasons at USC after Pete Carroll bolted to the NFL to escape NCAA sanctions and then was OC for Nick Saban at Alabama. He then landed at FAU in 2017 where he went 11-3, 5-7 and 10-3, leaving for Ole Miss last season before FAU was headed back to the Boca Raton Bowl, which the Owls had won back in 2017. Pittman joined new University of Arkansas head coach Bret Bielema's staff as assistant head coach/offensive line coach and stayed from 2013 through 2015 seasons. Pittman departed Arkansas after the 2015 season to become offensive line coach at the University of Georgia under new head coach Kirby Smart. He garnered a reputation as "one of the best recruiters and offensive line coaches in the SEC and helped Georgia win three consecutive SEC East titles from 2017–2019. He was promoted to associate head coach in 2019 but on December 8, 2019, Pittman was announced as the new head coach at Arkansas. The Ole Miss offense has thrived under Kiffin, averaging 41.7 PPG after three games. QB Matt Corral is completing 76.1 percent for 1,080 yards (he's topped 300 yards in all three games) with nine TDs and just one INT. His QB Rating of 210.7 ranks second in the nation in passing efficiency. WR Moore already has 31 catches but TE Yeboah is averaging 23.7 YPC and FOUR of his 15 receptions have gone for TDs. The running game offers a nice balance to Corral's passing, averaging 192.3 YPG, with Ealy (243 yards / 5.4 YPC / 4 TDs) and Connor (179 yards / 4.8 YPC / 4 TDs) both contributing. As for the defense, I'll say "no comment" and let these numbers speak for themselves. The defense that has given up 155 points and 641.3 YPG in three outings. Florida transfer Feleipe Franks has done a nice job for the Razorbacks, completing 64.9% for 730 yards with seven TDs and just two INTs. However, the Arkansas running game is non-existent, averaging 86.3 YPG on just 2.4 YPC and the team has yet to score a rushing TD through THREE games! RB Smith is the team's leading rusher (167 yards / 4.1 YPC) and also leads the team with 14 catches. However, WR Warren has 10 catches, averaging 22.3 YPC and has caught three TDs. Arkansas is 6-1 SU & ATS in the last seven meetings between these two schools but I really like what I've seen from Ole Miss. The Rebels couldn't keep up with the Gators in their first game (lost 51-35 but gained 613 yards!), then came from two TDs down in the third quarter at Kentucky to win 42-241 in OT the following Saturday. Ole Miss gave Alabama all it wanted last Saturday, trailing just 49-45 with under four minutes to go, before losing 63-48. The Razorbacks FINALLY broke its 20-game SEC losing streak with a 21-14 win at Miss St on Oct 3 and gave Auburn all it wanted in last Saturday's 30-28 road loss. A controversial ruling allowed the Tigers to get off a late field goal for their 30-28 victory over the Hogs and immediately became one of the hot topics of last weekend, with the consensus seeming to be that officials denied the Hogs what would have been their second victory. Pittman said he talked to John McDaid, SEC coordinator of football officials, and is "at peace" with the issue. "I don't really know what to say," he said at his weekly press conference. "I don't want to go into it, but I heard from the head of officials and I understand what happened now. So now we'll move forward on it." Pittman may be "at peace" with last Saturday's result but his team got robbed!' Bottom line is that Arkansas enter this game 1-21 SU in its last 22 SEC games and I want no part of them here (in basically a pick'em game) against an Ole Miss offense that leads the SEC in total offense (573 YPG), FDs (86), and passing yards per completion (16.31). Even more impressively, the offense has lost only ONE turnover on an interception, a conference low. The Rebels just put up 647 yards on the 'Bama defense and their 48 points were the most the Tide have given up vs an unranked team since 1936! As they like to say in Oxford, "Hotty Toddy!" Good luck...Larry |
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10-17-20 | Kentucky v. Tennessee -5.5 | Top | 34-7 | Loss | -110 | 91 h 27 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Tennessee at 12:00 ET. Kentucky hired Mark Stoops back on November 27, 2012, He was just 2-10 in his first season and then followed with back-to-back 5-5 seasons. However, he's led the Wildcats to FOUR straight winning season from 2016-19 and to four consecutive bowls, as well. Jeremy Pruitt was the DC at Florida St (2013) at Georgia (2014-15) and at Alabama (2016-17), before being hired as Tennessee's head coach in December of 2017. It capped a tumultuous coaching search that followed the firing of head coach Butch Jones and led to the replacement of AD John Currie by Hall of Fame coach Phillip Fulmer. Pruitt finished his first season with a 5–7 record, including 2–6 in SEC play. However, the Vols won their final five regular season games and then capped the year with a 23–22 comeback victory in the Gator Bowl against Indiana. Tennessee opened the 2020 ranked 25th in the AP's preseason poll and with a SIX-game winning streak. Old rivals Kentucky and Tennessee square off Saturday in Nashville at 12 noon ET. The Wildcats lost their season-opener at Auburn in a game MUCH closer than the 29-13 final. Kentucky seemingly scored a TD right before the half (was trailing 8-7 at the time) but a review said no (sure looked like a TD to me). Auburn then picked off a pass at the goal line on the VERY next play and while Auburn's "pick-six" was waived off because of another questionable call, the Wildcats never really recovered, Kentucky was within 15-13 in the fourth quarter but a fumble and then a failed 4th-down conversion attempt on back-to-back possessions, led to Auburn TD drives of 23 and 27 yards. Kentucky held Auburn to just 15 FDs and 324 yards. Kentucky then lost at home the following Saturday to Ole Miss, failing to hold a 14-point lead in the third quarter, eventually losing 42-41 in OT, on a missed extra-point. However, Kentucky defenders intercepted SIX passes and the Wildcats, despite picking up only 10 FDs, defeated visiting Mississippi State 24-2 for their first victory of the season last Saturday night in Lexington. Kentucky QB Terry Wilson is more of a runner (leading rusher with 221 yards on 4.6 YPC and three TDs) than a passer (61.3% for 463 yards with two TDs and one INT. The deep owns depth in the backfield and is averaging 212.3 YPG rushing (more on that in a bit). WR Josh Ali is the lone pass-catcher of note with 18 receptions but he's averaging just 11.6 YPC and does not have a receiving TD. Tennessee won a hard-fought game at South Carolina to open the season (31-27) and then beat Missouri 35-12, gaining 422 yards. That win extended the Vols' winning streak to EIGHT in row, tied with Notre Dame for the longest active among Power-5 schools. The Vols were in Athens, Ga last Saturday and led the then-No. 4 Bulldogs 21-17 at the half, before getting 'rolled' in the second half, as Georgia scored the game's final 27 points for a 44-21 win. Tennessee QB Jarrett Guarantano has completed 62.2% of his passes for 664 yards with four TDs and just one INT. His lone receiver of note is Josh Palmer, who has 14 catches (16.2 YPC) and has caught THREE of Guarantano's four TD throws, A pair of RBs share time, as Chandler has 187 yards (4.7 YPC) and Gray (170 yards (4.7 YPC). As the teams meet Saturday, here's the rub. Tennessee has dominated this series with a 33-2 SU and 26-9 ATS record the last 35 meetings. Tennessee is 11-2 ATS the last 13 meetings overall and Kentucky has lost 17 straight in Knoxville since winning there in 1984! What changes here? Let me return to Kentucky's running game averaging over 200 yards. The Wildcats ran for 408 yards (7.3 YPC) vs Ole Miss but in their other two games, vs Auburn and Miss St, they've run for an average of just 114.5 YPG on 3.2 YPC. Remember, Kentucky had just 10 FDs vs Miss St last Saturday, while gaining 157 total yards. NO way the Wildcats break their 17-game losing streak in Knoxville this Saturday and the bet says the Vols win "with room to spare!" Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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10-14-20 | Coastal Carolina v. UL-Lafayette -7 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* SBC Game of the Year is on UL Lafayette at 7:30 ET. Coastal Carolina's Jamey Chadwell was named interim head coach when head coach Joe Moglia took a medical leave of absence in 2017. The school announced on January 5, 2018 that Moglia had been medically cleared to return to full-time coaching and would reassume the head coaching position. However, Chadwell was formally introduced as the third all-time head coach at Coastal Carolina on January 18, 2019. Caldwell led the Chanticleers' to a 5-7 season in 2019, with their most notable win coming 12-7 at Kansas. The Chanticleers opened the 2020 season by returning to Lawrence and easily defeating the Jayhawks 38-23 back on Sep 12. They have followed with two more wins and will visit Cajun Field at 3-0 to take on ULL, which is also 3-0 and ranked No. 21 in the latest AP poll. Billy Napier accepted the head coaching job of the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns back on Dec 15, 2017, giving him his first job as a head coach of a college football team. His first season resulted with the Rajin' Cajuns winning the SBC-West and making a Cure Bowl appearance (lost to Tulane to finish 7-7). ULL won the West again last season, gave Appalachian St all it wanted in the SBC championship game (lost 45-38) and then capped its season with a 27-17 bowl win over Miami-Ohio to finish 11-3. ULL opened the 2020 season by winning 31-14 at Iowa St as a two-TD underdog. That victory is arguably the biggest win in school history, as ULL beat a top-25 opponent on the road for the first time, having gone 0-26 against ranked foes away from home. ULL's only other win over a top-25 team was in 1996 at home against Texas A&M. ULL has since added two wins over Ga State (34-31) and Georgia Southern (20-18) but both games came right down to the wire. Red-shirt freshman Grayson McCall won the starting QB job for the Chanticleers and has been excellent. He's completing 66.7% for 728 yards with nine TDs and just one INT, while rushing for 139 yards (4.5 YPC) plus three more TDs. C.J. Marable ran for 1,095 yards (5.3 YPC) but has a modest 190 yards this season (4.0 YPC) with three TDs. However, the running game has been good, averaging 198.3 YPG on 4.6 YPC. WR Heiligh has 12 catches (18.3 YPC) with three TDs, TE Likely has seven catches (30.7 YPC!) and three TDs plus WR Brown has six catches (22.8 YPC) with one TD. I will comment on these numbers in just a bit. QB Levi Lewis has been solid for ULL (723 yards with 4 TDs and 3 INTs), backed by a decent running game averaging 168.7 YPG on 5.1 YPC. Mitchell is the best RB, with 210 yards on 8.8 YPC with two TDs. A trio of WRs include LeBlanc (12 catches / 16.2 YPC / 1 TD), Lacy (6 catches / 19.7 YPC / 1 TD) and Pauley (4 catches / 20.5 YPC). Getting back to the VERY good offensive numbers put up by Coastal Carolina this year, not that the Chanticleers have faced only Kansas (maybe the WORST Power-5 school in the nation), which is 0-3 and allowing 44.0 PPG. Campbell (Big South) is an FCS school is 0-4, allowing 47.0 PPG and Arkansas St is 1-2, allowing 40.0 PPG. I'm NOT all that concerned with ULL's "close calls" against Ga State and Georgia Southern. I'd rather remind all about its win at Iowa St, which is back in the top25 at No. 20, after wins at TCU, a home win over Oklahoma (1st since 1960) and a 31-15 home win over Texas Tech. ULL is 11-2 SU at home under Napier, with one loss coming 17-7 against Appalachian St (in 2019) and against Coastal Carolina a 30-28 in 2018. Rajin' Cajuns WILL remember and an impressive win here will put ULL in the discussion for a Group of 5 bowl bid. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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10-12-20 | Chargers +7.5 v. Saints | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 28 h 47 m | Show |
My 9* MNF Magic is on the LA Chargers at 8:15 ET. The 1-3 LA Chargers are in New Orleans for a MNF contest against the 2-2 Saints. The Chargers drafted Philip Rivers back in 2004 and he took over as the team's starting QB in 2006 and started EVERY game for the team over the last 14 seasons. However, the Chargers only made the playoffs in TWO of the previous 10 seasons. He left via free agency with the Chargers drafting Oregon QB Justin Herbert with the sixth pick of the 1st round in the 2020 draft as his eventual replacement. Tyrod Taylor started in Week 1, a game the Chargers won 16-13 at Cincinnati. However, a team doctor accidentally punctured one of the Taylor's lungs, while attempting to administer a shot to Tyrod Taylor's ribs. Taylor has been sidelined ever since and while the Chargers have lost three in a row, don't blame Herbert. He's completing 72.0% for 931 yards in his three starts, with five TDs, three INTs and a QB rating of 102.2 (more later). Herbert was just 6 years old when Drew Brees left his final game for the Chargers with a career-threatening shoulder injury. A decade-and-a-half later, they're set to be on opposite sidelines on MNF. Brees has broken about every passing record that matters since joining New Orleans in 2006. However, while Brees has not made it back to a Super Bowl since his only championship in the 2008 season, his efficiency has been as good as ever the past couple of seasons. He set an NFL record with a 74.4% completion rate in 2018 and nearly matched it last season, when he completed 74.3% of his passes, while also throwing a career-low four interceptions. He enters this game completing 71.3% of his passes for 1,006 yards with eight TDs and two INTs for a 108.7 QB rating. The Chargers will NOT have RB Austin Ekeler for this game due to a hamstring injury and that's NOT good news. He's run for 248 yards (5.1 YPC) and has 17 catches. UCLA rookie Joshua Kelley gets the start and he's run for 174 yards, averaging only 3.3 YPC. Herbert does have excellent receivers, headlined by Keenan Allen, who has 32 catches (the last three seasons, Allen has had 102, 97 and 104 catches with six TDs receptions in each season). Mike Williams may be back for this one and that would be great news. He had 49 catches (20.4 YPC) last season and 43 catches with 10 TDs in 2018. TE Henry has 18 catches, adding to Herbert's 'weapons.' Speaking of WRs, the Saints are still listing Michael Thomas as questionable with a groin injury that has kept him out the last three games. Thomas caught 149 passes in 2019, an NFL record for the most in a single season. RB Alvin Kamara has been terrific, rushing for 236 yards with four TDs and grabbing a team-high 30 receptions for three TDs. Murray is an excellent backup, rushing for 184 yards with two TDs. Brees needs WRs Smith (14 catches / 2 TDs) and Sanders (14 catches / 2 TDs) to contribute more, if Thomas is not back. Comparing the defenses shows that while the Chargers are allowing 373.8 YPG to the Saints' 334.3 YPG, LA is holding opponents to 23.8 PPG, while New Orleans is allowing 30.8 PPG (that's a full TD difference!). Herbert passed for over 300 yards in his first two starts and while he had 290 last week, he completed 20 of 25 passes with three TDs and one INT, giving him a QB rating of 137.9. Yes, the Chargers have lost three straight but they took defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City to OT and only a dropped lateral on the final play deprived them of a golden opportunity to pull out a Week 3 win over Carolina. Last week, they led Brady and the Bucs 24-7, before losing 38-31. Meanwhile, the Saints fell behind 14-0 early at Detroit, before scoring TDs on FIVE consecutive drives. Those things happen when a team is playing the sad-sack Lions, who have lost 12 of their last 13 games, going 3-10 ATS. The Chargers will battle you all the way and are 2-0 ATS as a road dog already this season. Take the big points! Good luck...Larry |
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10-11-20 | Vikings +7.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 17 h 35 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic play is on the Min Vikings at 8:15 ET. The Minnesota Vikings went 10-6 last season and as the NFC's No. 6 seed, played at New Orleans (No. 3 seed with a 13-3 record) and upset the Saints, 26-20 in OT. Seattle went 11-5 last season and captured the NFC's No. 5 seed and drew the NFC East champion Eagles, who they beat 17-9. Both teams then lost road games at San Francisco and Green Bay, respectively. These same two teams meet tonight in Seattle for SNF on NBC but their respective 2020 seasons have begun quite differently. The Vikings opened 0-3 before winning their first game of the season last Sunday 31-23 at Houston, which has opened 0-4. Meanwhile, Seattle has opened 4-0 SU and ATS. Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer has been known for his defense but this year's Vikings are allowing 31.3 PPG on 426.5 YPG. QB Kirk Cousins entered the current season off two excellent seasons, completing 70.1% for 4,298 yards with 30 TDs and 10 INTs (99.7 QB rating) in 2018 and then completed 69.1% for 3,603 yards with 26 TDs and six INTs (107.4 rating) last season. He played OK vs Green Bay in Week 1 (19 of 25 for 259 yards with two TDs and one INT / 118.6 QB rating) but that performance was dwarfed by Aaron Rodgers' 364 passing yards with four TDs in a 43-34 Green Bay win. Cousins struggled in Weeks 2 and 3 with FIVE interceptions but bounced back in the team's road win at Houston last Sunday, going 16 of 22 for 260 yards with one TD and zero INTs (127.1 rating). RB Dalvin Cook ran for just 113 yards in Minnesota's 0-2 SU and ATS start but for 311 yards (6.4 YPC) with three TDs in the Vikings' last two games (team is 2-0 ATS). Stefon Diggs has shuffled off to Buffalo but veteran Adam Thielen has 20 catches *(14.2 YPC) with four TDs and is loving the chance to mentor LSU rookie Jefferson, who has 15 catches, averaging 21.8 YPC. TE Rudolph, who has averaged 58 catches the last five years while catching 40 TDs, is off to a slow start (eight catches and one TD). 2020 has opened as "The Year of the QB" and it's hard to find anyone playing better than Seattle's Russell Wilson. He's completed 75.2% for 1,285 with 16 TDs and just two INTs (136.7 QB rating leads the NFL). He's tied Peyton Manning's record with 16 TD passes in the first four games and already has 16 completions of more than 20 yards and is averaging 9.4 YPA. RB Carson ran for just 21 yards in Week 1 but caught six passes with two going for TDs. The last three games, he's run for a solid 216 yards on 6.3 YPC. WRs Lockett (26 catches / 4 TDs) and Metcalf (16 catches / 25.2 YPC / 3 TDs) are a dynamic duo plus TE Olsen has 14 catches (one TD) and RB Carson 15 catches with three TDs. The issue has been Seattle's defense, which has allowed a league-high (meaning worst!) 476.8 YPG. The Seahawks have allowed 27.3 PPG, a figure which would likely be higher if their offense wasn't playing so well, which has kept opposing offenses off the field. Seattle has a bye next week and would love nothing more than to head into that week off at 5-0. However, the history books tell us Seattle has NEVER started a season 5-0. As for the Vikings, a closer look at their season reveals that despite the team's 1-3 start, there's some optimism lying beneath the surface. Minnesota has been at its best inside the red zone booth offensively and defensively. The offense is tied for eighth in the NFL in goal-to-go TD rate (87.5%) and fifth in inside-the-20 TD rate (76.9%). The defense is seventh in goal-to-go TD rate (58.3%) and second in inside-the-20 TD rate (41.2%). These teams are meeting for the FIFTH since 2015 (high number for non-division opponents), including last season in Seattle, when the Seahawks won 37-30 but were just a three-point favorite, Here, Minnesota gets a full TD and they'll get a break as CenturyLink Field (arguably the NFL's toughest home venue) will be silent outside of what gets piped through the stadium speaker system. Take the points! Good luck...Larry |
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10-11-20 | Colts v. Browns +2.5 | 23-32 | Win | 100 | 117 h 4 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 5 Las Vegas Insider is on the Cle Browns at 4:25 ET. Cleveland owner Art Modell relocated the Browns to Baltimore as the Ravens in 1996 and the Browns' franchise was reactivated in 1999. It's hardly been smooth sailing, as entering the current season, Cleveland had produced just TWO winning seasons in the previous 21 years, with ONE postseason appearance (2002). Don't look now but after the team's 49-38 win at Dallas last Sunday, the Browns are 3-1 on the season. It marks the first time they've been 3-1 since the 2001 season. Cleveland welcomes the Indianapolis Colts to town on Sunday, who are also off to a 3-1 start. With Andrew Luck finally succumbing to his injuries, the Colts opened the current season with just ONE winning season in its previous five, so their start is almost as surprising as Cleveland's. BOTH teams lost their Week 1 contests, with each ripping off THREE straight wins since. The "big news' for Indy in the offseason was the FA signing of Philip Rivers to play QB. Rivers has been solid (72.7% for 984 yards with four TDs and three INTs / QB rating of 97.3) but his performance has been DWARFED by the OUTSTANDING early-season performances by so many starting QBs in 2020. Rivers has seen five players catch 10 or more passes (a sixth has nine receptions), with RB Hines leading the team with 16 receptions (he has averaged only 6.1 YPC) but WR Cox has been the most effective (11 catches / 17.6 YPC / 2 TDs). The running game hasn't helped much, averaging just 115.3 YPG on 3.5 YPC, as rookie Jonathan Taylor is underachieving so far (250 yards on 3.8 YPC). However, the Indy defense leads the league in both scoring and total yards, allowing 14.0 PPG on 236.3 YPG. The Cleveland defense is clearly the team's Achilles' heel, allowing 31.5 PPG on 402.3 YPG. However, since losing in Week by the score of 38-6 to the Ravens, the Cleveland offense has been terrific, averaging 39.3 PPG. Baker Mayfield had a promising rookie season in 2018 (27/14 TD-to INT ratio and 93.7 QB rating) and Cleveland's 2019 season looking promising. However, Mayfield was awful through the season's first eight games, throwing just seven TD passes with 12 INTs as the Browns went 2-6. They did win FOUR of their next five games (Mayfield had an 8-4 ratio) but the Browns lost their final three games to finish 6-10 (it didn't help that the Cleveland D allowed 34.0 PPG in those final three games). As for Mayfield, he ended his 'sophomore' season with 22 TDs, 21 INTs and a 77.8 QB rating (far off his 'freshman' numbers!). However, since that Week 1 loss, Mayfield has turned into a "game-manager," completing 51 of 76 pass attempts (67.1 percent) for 540 yards with six TDs and just one interception. While those certainly aren't eye-popping numbers, they represent the efficiency and dependability that had been missing from Cleveland's quarterback position for what seemed like an eternity. Cleveland's front office has invested heavily in its OL in recent years and those investments have paid immediate dividends in the pass-protection department. Mayfield has been sacked just six times through four games and hasn't been taken down more than twice in the same contest (note: He was sacked 40 times in 2019). The OL is also helping a 'deep. RB corps which currently leads the NFL in rushing (204.5 YPG / 5.9 YPC). Chubb (335 yards / 5.9 YPC / 4 TDs) and Hunt (275 yards / 5.5 YPC / 3 TDs) are a 'deadly duo' but when Chubb got hurt last week, D'Ernest Johnson (13 carries, 95 yards) stepped up and the running gamer NEVER missed a beat. WRs Beckham and Landry may not be getting force-fed the ball as they were last season but they're still capable of taking over games. Landry had five catches for 48 yards Sunday, while OBJ had a vintage performance against the Cowboys, He caught five passes for 81 yards (2 TDs) and ran for 73 yards, including a 50-yard TD run. This contest is Cleveland's ONLY home game in a four-week span (played at Dallas last Sunday and will play at Pittsburgh and Cincinnati in Weeks 6 and 7). I never thought I'd say this in 2020 but I'm starting to believe Cleveland has a team that could make the playoffs. One of the biggest reasons for Cleveland's collapse in 2019 was the ineptitude of head coach Freddie Kitchens. He never seemed to have a reliable game plan, he too often put his offense on the shoulders of second-year quarterback Baker Mayfield, and he forged a culture completely devoid of accountability. However, new head coach Kevin Stefanski has steered a steady ship since Week 1 against Baltimore. The Browns have been racking up points, in part because Stefanski has been putting them in position to do so. While the defense has given up a 'ton' of yards, the Browns lead the NFL with 10 takeaways, as well as leading the league in TO margin (plus-6). Not sure why Indy opened as the road favorite in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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10-11-20 | Panthers v. Falcons -1 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 1 m | Show |
My Oddsmaker's Error is on the Atl Falcons at 1:00 ET. The Panthers opened the season with back-to-back losses plus saw the team's MVP, RB Christian McCaffrey, go down with an injury during Week 2's loss. However, Teddy Bridgewater is showing promise as a long-term replacement for Cam Newton at QB, plus RB Mike Davis (in his 7th season) is flourishing as a short-term substitute for McCaffrey. The Panthers are 2-0 without McCaffrey and travel to Atlanta on Sunday to face the winless Falcons (0-4). Atlanta couldn't handle Russell Wilson in Week (no other team has either) but then blew HUGE leads in losing back-to-back games at Dallas and home to the Bears. The Falcons then lost this past Monday night 30-16 in Green Bay, as Rodgers ripped them for four TD passes.. Are the Panthers emerging as a surprise contender in the NFC South? A loss here would negate that theory. Bridgewater has completed 73.1% of his passes for 1,147 yards but has a modest four TD passes (also three INTs). He went 5-0 as a starter in New Orleans last season when Brees missed time and enters this game 18-8 as starting QB since 2015. mike Davis has done little in his first six NFL seasons but he's started the last two weeks, gaining 130 yards on 29 carries (4.5 YPC).Bridgewater has a trio of WRs that are not bad at all, with free agent pickup Robby Anderson's 28 catches being among the leaders through four weeks, plus Moore (18 catches / 16.0 YPC) and Samuel (14 catches) also contributing. The defense allowed 65 points in opening 0-2 but has allowed just 37 points in the team's back-to-back wins. Matt Ryan, who somehow earned the nickname "Matty Ice," despite winning NOTHING, can still throw the ball. He's passed for 1,246 yards through four games, with seven TDs and just two INTs. He's got plenty of receivers, including Julio Jones, who is one of the best when healthy. He missed the second half against Green Bay after aggravating a hamstring injury that caused him to miss the previous week against Chicago. He has 15 catches in 2 1/2 games and has a history of finding a way to play games after missing practice time because of injuries. Fellow WRs Ridley (21 catches / 16.6 YPC / 4 TDs) and Gage (19 catches) are excellent options, as is TE Hurst (13 catches / 2 TDs). Todd Gurley was a key FA pickup but so far has been average (254 rushing yards on 3.9 YPC) but does have four TDs. The defense is another story, ranking 31st (of 32 teams) in points allowed (34.5 per) and total yards (448.3 YPG). The Falcons won their last four games last season to save head coach Dan Quinn's job but after an 0-4 start in 2020, Quinn's job status is again the subject of weekly speculation. It could be "win or else" here for Quinn, considering the Falcons have owned this series over the past four seasons, going 7-1 SU & ATS. That includes 29-3 and 40-20 victories a year ago. Carolina is just 8-17 ATS (32%) against NFC South opponents its last 25. The line says WIN and COVER for Atlanta and that's my bet! Good luck...Larry |
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10-11-20 | Jaguars v. Texans -5 | Top | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 51 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* AFC Game of the Month is on the Hou Texans at 1:00 ET. The Houston Texans win the AFC South with a 10-16 record last season, the team's FOURTH division title in a five-year span. Houston would edge Buffalo 23-20 (OT) in the wild card round in 2019 and then went to KC, where it took a 24-0 lead over the Chiefs, before getting run over by Patrick Mahomes and Co. KC would score the game's next 41 points, on their way to a 51-31. I realize that Bill O'Brien was the team's head coach in each of the team's four division-winning seasons but NEVER warmed to him as a head coach. I was really surprised that following that loss to the Chiefs, the Texans appointed O'Brien to the role of general manager. Houston had gone the entire 2019 season with the position vacant. During the offseason, O'Brien traded DeAndre Hopkins (the team's best receiver) to the Arizona Cardinals, a move that was heavily criticized. Star defensive end J.J. Watt wouldn't address reports that he got into a verbal altercation with O'Brien in practice two weeks ago but he did say that he thought a team with Deshaun Watson at quarterback needed a change after the 0-4 start. O'Brien was fired by the Texans on October 5, 2020. Team owner Cal McNair then made Romeo Crennel the team's interim coach for the rest of this season. Crennel has been an assistant for O'Brien since 2014 and has coached both the Browns and the Chiefs in an NFL and college career spanning 50 years (more on him later). Visiting Houston on Sunday will be the 1-3 Jacksonville Jaguars. QB Gardner Minshew took over for an injured Nick Foles as a rookie last season and showed plenty of promise. He has opened his sophomore season completing 72.1 percent for 1,138 yards with eight TDs and four INTs (101.2 QB rating). The Jags have a shaky OL with Minshew being sacked 13 times. He also gets little help from his running game, which is averaging just 104.3 YPG. The team's best WR, DJ Chark (73 catches and 8 TDS as a rookie), returned in Week 4, after missing Week 3's game. He had EIGHT catches last Sunday, giving him 15 (in three games), averaging 13.6 YPC with three TDs (two came last week). WRs Cole (19 catches / 10.2 YPC / 2 TDs) and Shenault (16 catches / 11.9 YPC / one TD) are decent 'helpers.' The Jacksonville D is allowing 399.5 YPG and also 29.3 PPG (not good). Watson signed a HUGE extension before the season and the Texans didn't expect an 0-4 starts. Watson is completing 65.6% for 1,092 yards with six TDs and three INTs (solid but NOT what Houston needs). He's also added very little 'with his legs,' rushing for only 58 yards (3.4 YPC) without a TD. The overall running game is a mess, as David Johnson looked good in Week 1 (77 yards on 11 carries) but he's gained only 120 yards the last three games on 40 attempts (3.0 YPC). Houston misses Hopkins but Fuller (18 catches / 15.2 YPC / 2 TDs) is excellent plus veterans Randall Cobb and Brandin Cooks have been excellent receivers in this league. TE Akins (14 catches with one TD), is MORE than adequate. The defense allows 393. YPG and 31.5 PPG. Do I need to add a comment? Getting back to Crennel, his head coaching record in the NFL is 'ugly.' He is 28-55 (.337) in five-plus seasons with the Browns and Chiefs but he's had an excellent history as an assistant, being part of coaching staffs that won FIVE Super Bowl titles. Parcells and Belichick may have had something to do with that. He's well-liked and while he is NOT the long-term solution for Houston, I say he's just perfect for this underachieving team, right now. Let me note that Houston may be 0-4 but the Texans opened the season with KC (4-0), Baltimore (3-1) and Pittsburgh (3-0). Of course, there's NO excuse for last week's loss to the previously winless Vikings. However, Minnesota was a playoff team in 2019. Anyway, I'm expecting a great effort from Houston and for the Jaguars to play the perfect foil. It seems like light years ago that the Jags led the Pats in New England in the AFC championship game in the mid-fourth quarter, before falling 24-20. However, that was actually the 2017 season, The Jags opened 3-1 in 2018 but then 'imploded,' going 2-10 the rest of the way. A 6-10 season followed in 2019 and the team's 1-3 start this season means the Jags are 9-23 since that 3-1 start in 2018, including 4-13 on the road. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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10-10-20 | Alabama v. Ole Miss +24 | Top | 63-48 | Win | 100 | 54 h 59 m | Show |
My 9* "Big Dog" is on Ole Miss at 7:30 ET. No. 2 Alabama travels to Oxford Mississippi to take on Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin, who was Nick Saban's offensive coordinator for three seasons at Alabama (2014-16) the Tide won three SEC championships and one national championship in that span but like with all situations involving Kiffin, all separations are at least a little controversial. Saban needs no introduction but here's a quick history of Kiffin. Legendary Raiders' owner Al Davis hired Lane Kiffin back on January 23, 2007, making the 31-year-old the youngest head coach in the NFL's "modern era" (since 1946). The "Boy Genius" would go 4-12 in his first season and then after opening 1-3 in his second season, was fired. He's since made a one-year controversial 'stop at Tennessee, spent three-plus seasons at USC after Pete Carroll bolted to the NFL to escape NCAA sanctions and then was OC for Nick Saban at Alabama. He then landed at FAU in 2017 where he went 11-3, 5-7 and 10-3, leaving for Ole Miss last season before FAU was headed back to the Boca Raton Bowl, which the Owls had won back in 2017. Kiffin's debut for Ole Miss saw his team gain 613 yards but allow 642 to Florida, as Gators QB Trask threw for 416 yards (6 TDs and 0 INTs). However, the Rebels fought back from a 28-14 deficit in the third quarter last Saturday at Kentucky, with Ole Miss winning 42-41 in OT. The adage is, Saban never loses against head coaches who worked for him. Saban ran his record to 4-0 against former assistant Jimbo Fisher in a 52-24 victory against Texas A&M last Saturday, making him 20-0 against former assistants. Alabama QB Mac Jones passed for a career-high 435 yards and four TDs against A&M and is completing 74.5% of his passes for 684 yards with six TDs and one INT. He leads the country in passing efficiency with a rating of 222.1. WR Smith leads the team with 14 catches and Washington is right behind him with 13, averaging 21.2 YPC and hauling in three TDs. Metchie has just seven catches but is averaging a WHOPPING 31.9 YPC with two TDs. What has been missing so far with Alabama's is its running game. It's just two games but Alabama has run for only 110.0 YPG on 3.4 YPC. In comparison, Alabama has averaged right about 210 YPG the last SEVEN seasons. The Alabama D has also been 'soft,' allowing 386.0 YPG, compared to 294 YPG the last seven seasons. Alabama's Jones has been excellent but so has Ole Miss QB Matt Corral, who has completed 76.7 percent of his passes for 715 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception (he ranks 3rd in passing efficiency with a rating of 211.9). Corral's top target is Moore (20 catches / 15.9 YPC / one TD) but TE Yeboah has been a real playmaker. He's caught eight passes with an average of 21.8 YPC and two TDs. Mingo also has eight receptions (16.0 YPC) and two TDs and Drummond has just two catches with BOTH going for TDs. The Rebels' running game is not all that great but Ole Miss is averaging about 40 YPG more than Alabama (154.5 YPG). The Ole Miss defense will NOT win this game (meaning cover) but the Ole Miss offense has the ability to stay within this generous pointspread. That's the play! Good luck...Larry |
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10-10-20 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky -2.5 | Top | 2-24 | Win | 100 | 30 h 30 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Kentucky at 7:30 ET. Mike Leach is known for building potent offenses, directing passing-oriented teams in a spread offense system known as the "air raid" offense. He helped develop it with Hal Mumme when Mumme was head coach and Leach was offensive coordinator at Iowa Wesleyan, Valdosta State and Kentucky in the 1990s. Leach's offenses with Mumme, and later as a head coach himself, have broken numerous school and NCAA records. led Texas Tech to 10 straight bowls from 2000 through 2009 but was fired under controversial circumstances. Leach surfaced at Washington St in 2012 and after three losing seasons (two at 3-9), led teh Cougars to FIVE straight bow games. Leach agreed to be the head coach of the Mississippi State Bulldogs on January 9, 2020. Kentucky hired Mark Stoops back on November 27, 2012, He was just 2-10 in his first season and then followed with back-to-back 5-5 seasons. However, he's led the Wildcats to FOUR straight winning season from 2016-19 and to four consecutive bowls, as well. The 2018 season was a historic one for the Wildcats, as they snapped a 31-year losing streak to Florida, finishing 9-3, only the fourth time in school history that the Wildcats have won at least nine games. Kentucky then defeated Penn State in the Citrus Bowl on January, 1st, 2019 giving the Wildcats their first 10 win season since 1977, and only their third in school history. Stoops was named SEC Coach of the Year. The 2019 season was one of overcoming adversity. After a 2-3 start in which they lost all of their QBs to injury, Kentucky turned to WR Lynn Bowden Jr. to take over at QB. With a revamped offense, the Wildcats finished the regular Season 7-5 routing Louisville 45-13 on Senior Day. Kentucky then capped the season with a thrilling win over Virginia Tech in the Belk Bowl, as the Wildcats scored the winning TD with 15 seconds remaining for an 8-5 finish. Leach's debut for Miss St saw the Bulldogs upset defending champion LSU 44-34 on the road. C.J. Costello (a graduate transfer from Stanford) set a single-game SEC record with 623 passing yards (he threw 5 TDs). However, Miss St fell back to earth last Saturday, losing 21-14 at home to Arkansas (as a 16.5 favorite), which has lost 20 straight SEC games. Costello threw for 31 3 yards but had just one TD and three INTs. Costello has thrown 60 passes against LSU and 59 vs Arkansas, while the Miss St running game has produced a total of just 96 yards in those contests. Kentucky lost its season opener 29-13 at then-No. 8 Auburn, but the game was pretty close. The Wildcats seemingly scored a TD right before the half (were trailing 8-7 at the time) but a review said no (sure looked like a TD to me). Auburn then picked off a pass at the goal line on the VERY next play and while Auburn's "pick-six) was waived off because of another questionable call, the Wildcats never really recovered, Kentucky was within 15-13 in the fourth quarter but a fumble and then a failed 4th-down conversion attempt on back-to-back possessions, led to Auburn TD drives of 23 and 27 yards. Kentucky held Auburn to just 15 FDs and 324 yards. Kentucky was home last Saturday against Ole Miss and couldn't hold a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter, eventually losing 42-41 in OT, on a missed extra-point. QB Wilson threw for 239 yards vs Auburn but against Ole miss had just 151 passing yards, completing 14 of 18; However, he added 129 yards rushing with three TDs, as two Kentucky RBs topped 100 yards rushing as well. The Wildcats ran for 408 yards on 5.6 YPC. Not many teams lose when gaining over 400 yards on the ground. Running the ball effectively will keep Costello and Leach's "air raid" offense off the field and Kentucky sure doesn't want to open 0-3. Kentucky entered 2020 having gone 12-3 SU at home the previous two seasons. The fact that the home team is 5-0 SU & ATS in the last five meetings between these two schools works for Kentucky. As does the fact that Miss St had gone 0-6 ATS as a rod dog the last three seasons, before its shocking win at LSU. The pointspread says "close call but I'm saying W-I-P-E-O-U-T! Good luck...Larry |
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10-10-20 | Oklahoma -2 v. Texas | Top | 53-45 | Win | 100 | 73 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Game of the Year is on Oklahoma at 12:00 ET. Oklahoma & Texas meet in the Red River Showdown for the 116th time. Texas holds a 62-48-5 edge all-time but the Sooners have won 14 of the 21 meetings since 2000. However, the "vibe" is different in 2020 for MANY reasons. The Red River Showdown is one of the most unique games in college football. The are fans split down the 50-yard-line. The State Fair of Texas is bustling just outside the Cotton Bowl gates and the bus rides by the teams through the fairgrounds to the stadium are jam-packed with thousands of fans lining the streets either cheering or jeering. COIVID-19 has changed all that. "To pull into the fairgrounds without anybody there will be a little eerie," Sooners head coach Lincoln Riley said. "It'll be different, there's no doubt. And that's just 2020 right now, I guess." What also makes this great rivalry different in 2020 is that the Sooners come in 1-2 (0-2 Big 12) after being beaten 37-30 at home by Kansas State last week. Oklahoma lost in Ames for the first time since 1960 and has now dropped back-to-back regular-season games (lost 38-35 at home to Iowa St on Sep 26) for the first time since 1999. The Sooners were No. 3 in the AP poll two weeks ago but the loss to Iowa St dropped them out of the top-25 after spending 64 consecutive weeks inside the AP top-25. Texas also lost last Saturday 33-31 to TCU, when the Longhorns fumbled at the Horned Frogs goal line on a 1st and goal play with about four minutes to go. Texas (1-1 / 0-1 Big 12) remained in the rankings last Sunday, although the 'Horns dropped from No. 9 to No. 22. Last Saturday's results have Oklahoma and Texas meeting with NEITHER school in the top-20 for the 1st time since 1999! Oklahoma has a freshman QB in Spencer Rattler and he's completing 73.4% with 10 TDs and four INTs. CeeDee Lamb (62 catches / 21.4 YPC / 14 TDs) is now in the NFL but WRs Rambo (11 catches / 18.2 YPC / 4 TDs) and Mims (10 catches / 12.3 YPC / 2 TDs) are quality players plus RB Stogner has 11 catches (averaging 15.8 YPC) and fellow RB hall has eight receptions goo for three TDs. However, the running game is NOT up to usual standards, averaging only 122.7 YPG on 3.6 YPC. Oklahoma's erratic defensive play has hurt them in the past in the CFP and this year's unit has allowed 38 and 37 points in the team's back-to-back losses. Texas QB Sam Ehlinger has seemingly been around forever and in three games, has thrown 14 TDs passes against only two INTs while averaging 308.0 YPG passing. Unlike Rattler, Ehlinger has an excellent rushing game to balance the Texas offense, averaging 191.3 YPG on 5.5 YPC. He's also has a solid trio of WRs in Moore (11 catches / 18.2 YPC / 4 TDs), Schooler (10 catches / 12.3 YPC / 2 TDs) and Eagles, who may have just five receptions but he's averaging 22.2 YPC and three of his five catches have gone for TDs. However, very much like Oklahoma. the Texas defense has allowed 87 points in its last two games (really should have lost at Texas Tech two Saturdays ago) on 899 yards! One team's season will be 'in tatters' after this game and my bet says the Sooners just WON'T lose THREE in a row. No John Blake sighting this Saturday at the Cotton Bowl. For those who need a reminder, Blake served as the head coach for the Oklahoma Sooners from 1996 to 1998, compiling a career record of 12–22, which is the worst three-year stretch at the University of Oklahoma football history. Good luck...Larry |
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10-10-20 | Florida v. Texas A&M +7 | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 73 h 42 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Texas A&M at 12:00 ET. The Florida Gators will take a 2-0 record (both SEC wins) and their No. 4 ranking in the AP poll into College Station on Saturday to face No. 21 Texas A&M (1-1 start with both games also being conference contests). Florida QB Kyle Trask replaced an injured Feleipe Franks last season and went from obscurity to folk hero in Gainesville. He ended the season with 2,941 passing yards (25 TDs / 7 INTs), as the Gators finished 11-2 after a 36-28 Orange Bowl win over Virginia (final ranking of No. 6 in the AP poll). Jimbo Fisher completed his second season with Texas A&M in 2019, going 8-5, after going 9-4 in his first season (both seasons ended with bowl wins). 17 wins (including two bowl wins) over two seasons while playing in the SEC West is not bad but NOT what A&M is paying Fisher a 'ton' of money for. He's had two straight top-10 recruiting classes and the A&M fans and boosters want more. Florida passed for 213.5 YPG in 2018, while rushing for 213.2 YPG but last season, passed for 300.8 yards and ran for just 129.8. Head coach Dan Mullen loved the results (11-2 record) but was hoping for some more balance in 2020. However, Trask has been OUTSTANDING in two wins, completing 71.8% for 684 yards with 10 TDs and just one INT. 6-5 TE Pitts has 12 catches, averaging 18.9 YPC with six TDs. The running game has been somewhat pushed to the 'back-burner,' averaging a modest 138.0 YPG with only one rushing TD. The Florida D has looked pretty vulnerable, allowing 29.5 PPG on 471.0 YPG. Texas A&M was ranked 13th in the AP's preseason poll but played an uninspiring season-opener at home on Sep 26, edging Vandy just 17-12. Up next was Alabama last Saturday and while A&M gained 450 yards and scored 24 points, the Aggies allowed 52 points 554 on yards, with Alabama QB Mac Jones throwing for a career high 435 yards and four TDs. A&M QB Kelly Mond did little against Vandy but played well against 'Bama's defense, throwing for 318 yards with three TDs. RB Spiller ran for 946 yards (5.4 YPC) with 10 TDs last season but while he's averaging 7.5 YPC through two games, he's gained a modest total of 142 yards rushing. A&M remained in the top-25 even after the loss to Alabama (at No. 21) but will have to win here, to stay ranked come Sunday. The Florida D is vulnerable and its pass D has just ONE interception, despite facing 80 pass attempts. Mond has the talent to match Trask. Fisher knows plenty about Florida as during his time at Florida St, he was 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS vs Florida. Take the points! Good luck...Larry |