Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-14-18 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Steelers | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 149 h 3 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Jacksonville Jaguars (1:05 EST). Jacksonville looks to parlay its 10-3 home win over the Bills into another victory on the road in Pittsburgh in the divisional round. Pittsburgh enters off a bye after finishing with a 13-3 record. Note that when these teams met in Week 5 it was Jacksonville which posted the 30-9 road win, as RB Leonard Fournette had 86 yards, while Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger threw for 312 yards and five INT’s. Jacksonville comes into this one averaging 26.1 PPG, while conceding 15.9 (23 INT’s on the year.) Blake Bortles finished with a 22/13 TD/INT, while Fournette had 1,096 rushing yards. The defense looked particularly tough last week, holding the Bills to just 263 total yards, including just 133 passing. Pittsburgh enters averaging 25.4 PPG, while conceding 19.2. Roethlisberger survived the five INT game and went on to post a 28/14 TD/INT ratio. RB Le’Veon Bell posted 1,291 rushing yards once it was all said and done. I’ll point out though that Jacksonville is interestingly 12-5 ATS in its last 17 in this series, while Pittsburgh is 0-5 ATS in its last five following a SU victory. The Jags allow just 169.9 passing yards per game and I look for them to contain Roethlisberger in this one. Note as well that Bell had just 47 yards on 15 carries against Jacksonville in Week 5. While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, all signs point to a comfortable cover. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-13-18 | Titans v. Patriots OVER 47 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 132 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* AFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the over Titans/Patriots (8:15 EST). The Titans come in with a ton of momentum after downing the Chiefs 22-21 in Kansas City last week, while the Patriots enter off a first round bye after winning the AFC East with a 13-3 record. Tennessee averages 20.9 PPG and it concedes 22.2. Derrick Henry was unstoppable on the ground last week, posting 156 rushing yards, while Delanie Walker made six catches for 74 yards. QB Marcus Mariota finished with 205 yards, two TD’s and and one INT. The Titans are stout against the run, but struggle against the pass, which obviously doesn’t bode well facing this rested and focused Patriots side. The Pats average 28.6 PPG and concede 18.5. Tom Brady posted a stellar 32/8 TD/INT. TE Rob Gronkowski had 1,084 receiving yards this year, while RB Dion Lewis posted 222 yards combined over his final two games of the regular season. I’ll point out that Tennessee has seen the total go over the number in three of five as an underdog already this season and in four of five after two or more consecutive SU victories, while New England has seen the total soar above the posted number in three of four as a favorite of ten points or more this season and in four of five home games when the total in the contest was set between 45.5 and 49 points. With the Pats pushing the pace and the Titans forced to match pace, I’m banking on this one eclipsing the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. Good luck…Larry |
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01-13-18 | Falcons v. Eagles +3 | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 128 h 6 m | Show | |
My 9* Oddsmakers Error is on the Philadelphia Eagles (4:35 EST). The Falcons come in off a big 26-13 road victory against the Rams and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a predictable letdown here. Philadelphia was 13-3 in the regular season, which was good enough to earn a first round bye. Note that these teams didn’t play this year, but they did last season and the Eagles pulled away for the comfortable 24-15 victory. Atlanta comes in averaging 22.3 PPG, led by the eighth ranked passing attack. The Falcons have been decent defensively this year as well, allowing only 19.3 PPG (ranked eighth overall.) QB Matt Ryan was an unspectacular 218 yards, one TD and no turnovers last week, while WR Julio Jones was an offensive bright spot with 94 receiving yards. Philadelphia averages 28.6 PPG and it concedes 18.4. Carson Wentz went down with injury late in the season and backup QB Nick Foles has filled in admirably to this point by posting 537 passing yards and a 5/2 TD/INT. Foles has played in the playoffs as well, back in 2013 for Philadelphia and he threw two TD’s and zero picks. Two other offensive players to keep your eyes on today are RB’s LeGarrette Blount and Jay Ajayi. I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last seven off a loss against a division rival, while Atlanta is just 2-3 ATS this season after two or more consecutive victories. Winning and covering on the road is hard enough in the regular season and it’s even more difficult for a team when asked to do it on back-to-back weeks. Now throw in the fact that it’s the playoffs and I think that all the pressure is indeed on the visitors today. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Eagles. Good luck…Larry |
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01-08-18 | Alabama -4.5 v. Georgia | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -107 | 158 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* 34-Club Play is on Alabama (9:00 EST). No. 4, 12-1 Alabama gets ready to battle No. 3, 13-1 Georgia in the College Football Playoff title game on Monday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Tide. Nick Saban is gunning for his sixth national title as he faces his former assist in Kirby Smart. The Tide come in hot, as they avenged their loss to Clemson in last year’s final by smashing it 24-6 in the Sugar Bowl. Alabama looked particularly impressive on the defensive side of the ball, holding a Tigers team that had averaged 35.5 points and 448.2 YPG, to just two FG’s and a total of 188 yards. Alabama would in fact go on to give just just 64 rushing yards in the victory. QB Jalen Hurts was an efficient 16 of 24 for 120 yards and a pair of TD’s (no INT’s.) Hurts also had 40 rushing yards, while the combo of Bo Scarbrough and Damien Harris went for 101. I think Georgia comes in “gassed” after its thrilling, double OT win over Oklahoma. Sony Michel had 181 yards on 11 carries, while Nick Chubb added 145 yards on the ground. Jake Fromm was 20 of 29 for 210 yards and two TD’s. In all Georgia rolled up 527 yards off offense against a poor Sooners defense. But Fromm, Michel and Chubb will now face their stiffest defensive test of the season and suffice it to say, I believe they’re going to come up short. I’ll point out as well that Alabama is 5-1 ATS in its last six neutral site games when playing the role of favorite, while Georgia is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten neutral site games when playing the role of underdog. Ultimately, I believe the Tide’s aggressive defense proves to be too much for the tired Bulldogs to overcome. Lay the points, play on Alabama. Good luck…Larry |
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01-07-18 | Panthers +6 v. Saints | Top | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 151 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MOTNH is on the Carolina Panthers (4:30 EST). The 11-5 Carolina Panthers get ready to battle the 11-5 New Orleans Saints in the final NFC Wildcard Game and while I obviously wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can, as I expect this one to come right down to the wire. It’s difficult to beat a team three times in one season. New Orleans is a “good” team, but I don’t think it’s a great team. The Panthers do indeed play with double revenge after dropping the first matchup 34-13 and the second one 31-21. Carolina averages 22.7 PPG and concedes 20.4. Cam Newton finished with a 22/16 TD/INT ratio this season, while also adding 754 rushing yards. Carolina features the fourth ranked run game, with Jon Stewart and Christian McCaffrey leading the charge. The Saints average 28 PPG and concede 20.4. QB Drew Brees finished with a 23/8 TD/INT. Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara are also a deadly one-two punch on the ground. I’ll point out though that Carolina has excelled in this spot for bettors all year, going 2-0 ATS off a loss against a division rival and 5-2 ATS as an underdog, while the Saints are just 2-3 ATS this season off a divisional contest. As mentioned off the top, it’s hard enough to beat a team twice in the same season, let alone three times. Only truly great teams can usually accomplish a feat like that. I’m not convinced that the Saints are a great team. Grab the points, play on Carolina. Good luck…Larry |
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01-07-18 | Bills v. Jaguars OVER 39.5 | 3-10 | Loss | -107 | 148 h 52 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U Oddsmaker’s Error is on the over Bills/Jags (1:00 EST). The 9-7 Buffalo Bills get ready to battle the 10-6 Jacksonville Jaguars in this AFC Wildcard playoff and for a number of different reasons, I think this one will fly over the posted number once it’s all said and done. Buffalo beat the Dolphins 22-16 in their regular season finale and got some outside help from the Bengals to earn their first postseason berth in 17 years. The Jags lost 15-10 in their Week 17 matchup against Tennessee, but still won the AFC South with a 10-6 record. The Bills won three of four down the stretch. QB Tyrod Taylor had a respectable 14/4 TD/INT ratio. RB LeSean McCoy is questionable with an ankle injury, a situation which could very well see the team open up the playbook, putting added pressure on WR Charles Clay, who had six grabs for 64 yards last week. The Bills average 18.9 PPG and concede 22.4. The Jags average 26.1 PPG and concede just 16.8. QB Blake Bortles finished with a 21/13 TD/INT. RB Leonard Fournette finished with 1,040 rushing yards and nine TD’s. I’ll point out though that Buffalo has seen the total go over the number in ten of its last 17 against teams with winning records, while Jacksonville has seen the total soar above the posted number in five of seven off a loss against a division rival. I think we’re going to see a much more wide open affair than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Play on the over. Good luck…Larry |
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01-06-18 | Falcons v. Rams -4.5 | Top | 26-13 | Loss | -123 | 131 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Rams (8:15 EST). The 10-6 Atlanta Falcons get ready to battle the 11-5 LA Rams on Saturday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. ATL needed a 22-12 win in Week 17 to notch its playoff berth this year. LA lost its regular season finale 34-13 to the surging San Francisco 49ers, but it had already secured home field in the Wildcard by winning the NFC West earlier. Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan wasn’t his usual productive self this year, finishing with a 20/12 TD/INT. WR Julio Jones had 1,444 receiving yards on 88 catches. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman form a difficult duo to stop on the ground. Note that ATL averages just 22.1 PPG (15th), while conceding 19.7 (8th.) LA averages 29.9 PPG (1st) and concedes just 20.6 (12th.) QB Jared Goff had a huge year with a sharp 28/7 TD/INT. RB Todd Gurley had 1,305 rushing yards with 13 TD’s and 788 receiving yards as well. Additionally I’ll point out that this is in fact a spot in which the Falcons have struggled in this year for bettors, going just 2-6 ATS on the road and only 4-5 ATS against teams with winning records, while LA has excelled in this position by going 3-1 ATS this year as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and 5-3 ATS against teams with winning records. LA has a “second gear” which I have a hard time seeing the Falcons keeping up too on the road in this hostile environment. I think Goff puts on a show and Gurley delivers the knock out blow down the stretch. Lay the points with confidence, play on the Rams. Good luck…Larry |
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01-06-18 | Titans v. Chiefs -7 | 22-21 | Loss | -115 | 128 h 41 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Wild Card Las Vegas Insider is on the KC Chiefs at 4:35 ET. The 9-7 Tennessee Titans get ready to battle the 10-6 KC Chiefs and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Tennessee beat the Jaguars 15-10 last week to finish with the fifth seed in the AFC, while Kansas City got the better of Denver 27-24 in its finale, a victory which clinched the AFC West. Note that this is a bit of a “revenge” game for the Chiefs, as the Titans beat them 19-17 in their lone matchup last year. Tennessee averages 20.9 PPG (19th) and it concedes 22.2 (17th). The victory in Week 17 snapped a three-game slide. Clearly Bills fans are the most excited right now, but Titans fans aren’t far behind as the team hasn’t been in the playoffs since 2008. QB Marcus Mariota finished with a poor 13/15 TD/INT this year though. Titans’ RB Derrick Henry will be leaned upon heavily here, as DeMarco Murray sat out last week and he’s also questionable for this one (if he does play, clearly he’s not going to be at 100% capacity.) KC averages 25.9 PPG and concedes 21.2. QB Alex Smith finished with 4,042 passing yards and a sharp 26/5 TD/INT ratio. RB Kareem Hunt finished with 1,327 rushing yards and 455 receiving yards. WR Tyreek Hill had 1,183 receiving yards and seven TD’s this season. The Chiefs come in on top form, having won four straight. I’ll point out as well that Tennessee is just 3-5 ATS on the road this year, while KC is 6-2 ATS at home. The Titans backed their way into the postseason, while the Chiefs come in as division winners. I expect Kansas City to take advantage of home field and to easily pull away down the stretch. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-01-18 | Georgia v. Oklahoma | Top | 54-48 | Win | 100 | 488 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Georgia (5:00 EST). The 12-1 Georgia Bulldogs get ready to battle the 12-1 Oklahoma Sooners in the Rose Bowl for a chance at the National title on the line. For a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Bulldogs. QB Kirby Smart led Georgia to an 8-1 SEC record and a convincing 28-7 win over Auburn for the SEC title. Oklahoma is led by QB Baker Mayfield, who would direct the Sooners to eight straight wins to end the season, including a 41-17 victory over TCU in the Big 12 title game. Georgia averages 34.0 PPG. QB Jake Fromm has thrown for 2,173 yards and owns a very respectable 21/5 TD/INT ratio. The offense revolves around the run though, led by Nick Chubb, who had 1,175 yards and 13 TD’s. The Bulldogs rank fourth overall on the defensive side of the ball by allowing just 270.9 YPG, led by LB Roquan Smith, who had 113 tackles and 5.5 sacks. Mayfield just earned AP Player of the Year honors for Oklahoma and in the conference championship game he had 243 yards, four TD’s as well as running for 65. Mayfield has a 41/5 TD/INT ratio. Oklahoma leads the country with an average of 583.3 YPG, while conceding just 384.7 overall. I’ll point out though that Georgia is 4-1 ATS in its last five non-conference games and 4-1 ATS in its last five Bowls, while Oklahoma is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine neutral site affairs. Georgia has the offense to hang with Oklahoma. The Bulldogs’ superior defense though is the difference maker for me. They say: “defense wins championships.” While it’s yet to be seen if the Bulldogs’ nation leading defensive unit can take the national title, all signs point to it being the deciding factor in this year’s Rose Bowl. Play on Georgia. Good luck…Larry |
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01-01-18 | South Carolina v. Michigan -7.5 | Top | 26-19 | Loss | -110 | 362 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on Michigan (12:00 EST). Both South Carolina and Michigan finished with identical 8-4 records. Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines will be out for a little redemption here though after a disappointing year. Michigan would go on to drop its final two games of the season against Wisconsin and Ohio State. QB John O’Korn and RB Karan Higdon have looked brilliant at times and pretty pedestrian in others. As South Carolina’s defense goes, so go the Gamecocks. Michigan’s defense is even better though. A major blow to the Gamecocks offense as well comes in the form of nagging injuries to both RB’s, as Rico Dowdle and AJ Turner suffered setbacks to end the season. Dowdle fractured his fibula, while Turner twisted an ankle. Both are listed as questionable, but if they do happen to suit up and play, one has to wonder how effective they’re really going to be? I’ll point out that South Carolina is just 1-3 ATS in its last four non-conference games, while Michigan is 2-1 ATS in its last three off a loss against a conference rival. Michigan has its issues, that’s why it’s playing in the Outback Bowl this year. But South Carolina is far from perfect either. I think Harbaugh has his team prepared for this one and I believe the Wolverine’s superior defense will also prove to be a big difference maker once it’s all said and done. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-31-17 | Panthers v. Falcons -3.5 | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 124 h 53 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 17 Las Vegas Insider is on the Atl Falcons at 4:25 ET. Carolina has clinched a playoff spot by beating Tampa Bay last weekend. The Falcons are going to need to win this game for a chance at the playoffs after falling 23-13 to the red hot Saints last weekend. ATL QB Matt Ryan was 22 of 36 for 288 yards in the setback: “I think we stay on schedule,” Ryan assessed earlier in the week. “We can’t put ourselves behind the chains with self-inflicted wounds. We can’t do that. And then when we get our chances to make plays, we’ve got to make the plays. It’s not that complicated. When we get our opportunities, we’ve got to make plays. Again, we believe we’re going to do that. We’re going to have a great week of preparation.” Panthers’ QB Cam Newton had 160 yards passing and 52 rushing last week. I’ll point out thought that Carolina is just 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 after allowing more than 350 total yards in its previous outing, while Atlanta is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 after scoring less than 15 points in its previous game. The “hungrier” team is the correct call here. Newton and company have done their job and I think they’ll “fold up their tents” early against this determined home side. Lay the points, play on the Falcons. Good luck…Larry |
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12-31-17 | 49ers v. Rams -4 | 34-13 | Loss | -104 | 123 h 29 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Rams (4:25 EST). San Francisco has won four straight and it’s going to be eager to score another upset on the road here against a Rams team which just beat Tennessee 27-23 on the road on Christmas Eve. Note that San Fran is still just 21st in the league in scoring offense by averaging only 19.8 PPG, while ranked 26th in scoring defense by conceding 24.7 per contest. Jimmy Garoppolo has been fantastic in the early going, but note that the 49ers were actually out gained 472-369 in last week’s big 44-33 win at home over the Jaguars. LA ranks first in scoring with 30.9 PPG, while ranked eighth on the defensive side by conceding just 19.7. Goaltender Jared Goff has a 28/7 TD/INT. Last week the Rams held a decisive 402-366 advantage in total offense in their victory over the Titans. One player to keep your eyes on today is LA RB Todd Gurley II, who has 1,305 yards rushing and 13 TD’s, as well as 788 receiving yards and six more major scores. Additionally I’ll point out that San Francisco is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory, while LA is 4-0 ATS in its last four following an ATS loss. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-31-17 | Bengals +10 v. Ravens | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 124 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Cincinnati Bengals (4:25 EST). The 6-9 Cincinnati Bengals are in Baltimore to take on the 9-6 Ravens in Week 17 and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Note that this is a revenge game for Cincinnati after Baltimore shut it out 20-0 at home back on September 10th. The Bengals come in off a confidence boosting 26-17 home win over Detroit and while Cincinnati won’t be performing in the off-season, it’ll definitely be looking to avenge the earlier loss and try to play spoiler to the still playoff hopeful Ravens. Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton has a 22/12 TD/INT, while WR AJ Green has 1,061 receiving yards and eight TD catches this year. Baltimore comes in off a 23-16 home win over the Colts. QB Joe Flacco had 237 yards and two TD’s. RB Alex Collins had 51 yards on 18 carries. I’ll point out thought that the Bengals have done well in this spot for bettors, going 3-1 ATS in their last four in trying to revenge a shutout loss against an opponent, while Baltimore is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after holding its previous opponent to 17 points or less. Note that the underdog is 6-1 ATS in its last seven in this series. The Ravens barely got by the Colts last weekend, which doesn’t bode well in facing this vastly more talented and revenge minded Bengals team in my opinion. Outright victory? Very possible. In fact, I’ll also recommend “sprinkling” a little on the money line if you can. Play on the Bengals. Good luck…Larry |
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12-31-17 | Bears +13.5 v. Vikings | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 120 h 20 m | Show | |
My 9* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Chicago Bears (1:00 EST). Chicago enters its final game of the year having won two of its last three, most recently downing the Browns 20-3 at home on X-Mas Eve. Minnesota comes in having won ten of its last 11, most recently a 16-0 victory on the road against Green Bay. Note that Chicago plays with revenge after falling 20-17 at home to Vikes back on October 9th. Lets face it, the Bears are pretty terrible. Terrible offensively that is, averaging just 16.9 PPG. Rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky has been kept under a tight leash all year though, but he has shown flashes of extreme potential at times. Chicago’s defense has been pretty good this season. Last week the unit forced three turnovers, two of which came in the red zone. In all the Bears allows just 19.8 PPG, ranked tenth. Minnesota averages 23.9 PPG, while allowing only 16.1. The Vikes will clinch a first round bye with a win today, or a Carolina loss. I think it’s interesting to note though that the Vikes got the win in Green Bay last week despite being out gained 239-236. Chicago has played better of late and it would love nothing more than to play spoiler here. Note that the Bears are 6-5 ATS as an underdog this season. Minnesota has been unbelievable up to this point, but in my opinion all signs point to a bit of a letdown in its regular season finale. While I’ll stop short in actually calling for the outright upset, everything definitely points to a much tighter affair than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-30-17 | Wisconsin v. Miami-FL +7 | Top | 34-24 | Loss | -115 | 443 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Florida (8:00 EST). The 12-1 Wisconsin Badgers get ready to battle the 10-2 Miami Hurricanes in the Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami on December 30th and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Gators. Miami comes into this one having lost two straight, most recently to Clemson in the ACC title game. Wisconsin also comes in off a loss, it’s only of the season with a setback to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship. The Badgers have the No. 1 defense in total yards allowed per game, allowing 253, while ranked third in conceding just 13.2 PPG. That defense though looked pretty medicore in the 27-21 Big Ten Championship Game loss to the Buckeyes. The loss dropped the team from the College Football Playoff: “It’s an honor and a privilege to be here,” Badgers’ head coach Paul Chryst said earlier in the week. “I’m really thankful for our team and what they’ve done to give us the opportunity to play in this game.… It’s an iconic bowl game.” The Hurricanes were upset by Pittsburgh 24-14 on Thanksgiving and fell flat in the ACC Championship game against Clemson 38-3. In the two games previous to that though Miami posted 41 points in wins over Notre Dame and Virginia. Unlike their counterpart today, the Hurricanes have had more time to process the upset/shock from losing. I think that despite the longer lay off, the Badgers come in still hung up on their monumental setback in the Big Ten Championship game: “Now that we’ve lost two in a row we don’t want to feel that way again,’’ Richt noted. “One of the most fun things in college football is the celebration with the team after a great victory. And one of the hardest things is being able to look everybody in the eye when it’s over and realize we couldn’t get it done. But the one thing about our team is we’ve done it all together. We’ve got great staff unity. We’ve got great player unity. And there’s a great trust factor with everybody. They did an awesome job of putting things into perspective. And now it’s time to turn the page and get after a really good team.’’ Unlike Richt’s team, Wisconsin clearly can’t be happy to be here after the perfect regular season record and then losing in such tragic fashion. An outright upset isn’t out of the question. A “TD” spread isn’t that large. But that said, in a tightly contested affair which I envision being decided late or in extra time even, I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Hurricanes. Good luck…Larry |
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12-30-17 | Wisconsin v. Miami-FL OVER 45 | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 86 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* BOWL TOTAL OF THE YEAR is the over Wisconsin/Miami Florida (8:00 EST). The 12-1 Wisconsin Badgers get ready to battle the 10-2 Miami Hurricanes in the Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami on December 30th and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Gators. Miami comes into this one having lost two straight, most recently to Clemson in the ACC title game. Wisconsin also comes in off a loss, it’s only of the season with a setback to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship. The Badgers have the No. 1 defense in total yards allowed per game, allowing 253, while ranked third in conceding just 13.2 PPG. That defense though looked pretty medicore in the 27-21 Big Ten Championship Game loss to the Buckeyes. The loss dropped the team from the College Football Playoff: “It’s an honor and a privilege to be here,” Badgers’ head coach Paul Chryst said earlier in the week. “I’m really thankful for our team and what they’ve done to give us the opportunity to play in this game.… It’s an iconic bowl game.” The Hurricanes were upset by Pittsburgh 24-14 on Thanksgiving and fell flat in the ACC Championship game against Clemson 38-3. In the two games previous to that though Miami posted 41 points in wins over Notre Dame and Virginia. Unlike their counterpart today, the Hurricanes have had more time to process the upset/shock from losing. I think that despite the longer lay off, the Badgers come in still hung up on their monumental setback in the Big Ten Championship game: “Now that we’ve lost two in a row we don’t want to feel that way again,’’ Richt noted. “One of the most fun things in college football is the celebration with the team after a great victory. And one of the hardest things is being able to look everybody in the eye when it’s over and realize we couldn’t get it done. But the one thing about our team is we’ve done it all together. We’ve got great staff unity. We’ve got great player unity. And there’s a great trust factor with everybody. They did an awesome job of putting things into perspective. And now it’s time to turn the page and get after a really good team.’’ So here are two teams that had big aspirations half way through the season, but which fell flat down the stretch. It’s extremely rare that I’d have such a big play on both the side and total of the same game, but that’s the way it’s worked out this year (my biggest Bowl side play of the season also comes in this contest.) I’ll point out that Wisconsin has seen the total go over the number in two of three non-conference games this year and in three of four this season when the total in the contest is set between 42.5 and 49 points, while Miami Florida has seen the total fly above the posted number in two of its last three after two or more consecutive SU losses. I expect these two hungry teams to combine for just enough offense to push this total over the number as the game comes down the stretch. Good luck…Larry |
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12-29-17 | USC v. Ohio State OVER 64.5 | Top | 7-24 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* COTTON BOWL TOTAL Situational Stunner is on the over USC/Ohio State (8:30 EST). USC closed its regular season with a 31-28 win over Stanford in the Big 12 Championship, while Ohio State knocked off Wisconsin 27-21 in the Big Ten title contest. The Trojans average 34.5 PPG and concede 26.3. USC held a 501-343 advantage over Stanford in the championship victory. QB Sam Darnold has 3,787 passing yards and a 27/12 TD/INT. RB Ronald Jones leads the way on the ground with 1,486 yards and 18 TD’s. The Buckeyes average 42.5 PPG and concede just 19.9. Ohio State held a 449-298 advantage in total offense against Wisconsin. QB JT Barrett has 2,939 yards and a 35/9 TD/INT ratio. He also has 732 rushing yards, plus ten more scores. I’ll point out that USC has seen the total go over the number in five of seven this year against teams with winning records, while Ohio State has seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of six this season in the same position. I believe these competent starting QB’s will be the main story line’s in tomorrow’s summaries. Play on the over. Good luck…Larry |
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12-28-17 | Michigan State v. Washington State | Top | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 36 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* Holiday Bowl Oddsmaker’s Error is on Michigan State (9:00 EST). Michigan State won its final two games of the regular season and I expect that momentum to get carried over here. Washington State went just 3-3 down the stretch. All three losses come on the road, which doesn’t bode well obviously in this neutral site affair. Note that the Cougars were destroyed 41-14 in the Apple Cup against Washington. WSU QB Luke Falk was a stand out all year, finishing with 3,593 yards and a 30/13 TD/INT. MSU has held opponents to under 300 yards on average defensively. QB Brian Lewerke finished with a 17/6 TD/INT. Note that he also had 490 yards rushing and five more major scores on the ground. One other player to keep your eyes on today is Trojans WR Felton Davis III, who had 658 yards and eight TD’s this season. I’ll point out as well that Michigan State is 2-1 ATS in non-conference games this year, while Washington State is just 1-2 ATS in the same position. I think Michigan State is the more complete team and I expect this depth and overall skill to prove to be too much for Falk and the WSU offense to overcome. Play on Michigan State. Good luck…Larry |
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12-28-17 | Stanford +3 v. TCU | 37-39 | Win | 100 | 36 h 34 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on Stanford (9:00 EST). The Cardinal went 9-4 and lost to USC 31-28 in the Pac-12 Title game. The Horned Frogs were 10-3 and lost to Oklahoma 41-17 in the Big 12 Championship. Stanford averages 32.0 PPG and concedes just 21.5. QB KJ Costello had 192 yards and two TD’s in the loss to USC. RB Bryce Love had 125 yards and a TD in that one. Note that Love is a finalist for the Heisman Trophy this year after rushing for 1,973 yards and 17 TD’s. TCU averages 33.2 PPG and concedes 17.6. The Horned Frogs also struggled offensively in their title game, posting just 317 total yards off offense against a poor Sooners’ defense. QB Kenny Hill was a bright spot with 234 yards, two TD’s and an INT. I think it’s interesting to note though that Stanford is 5-1 ATS this year against teams with winning records, while TCU is just 2-4 ATS in the same position. I think Love puts his stamp on this game and carries his team to the promised land. That said, in the end I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Stanford. Good luck…Larry |
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12-27-17 | Purdue +3.5 v. Arizona | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 37 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Purdue (8:30 EST). Arizona comes into the Foster Farms Bowl off two straight regular season losses to end the campaign. Purdue on the other hand won three of its last four to earn bowl qualification and suffice it to say, I expect the Boilermakers to carry that momentum over into this one. Purdue won’t be intimidated here, as it has some big wins under its belt already this season, including against Iowa, who had just blown out Ohio State the week prior. And in their regular season finale the Boilermakers found a way to get past Indiana 31-24. Arizona averages 41.8 PPG, but it doesn’t play a lick of defense, allowing an average of 467 YPG. In fact, over their last four games the Wildcats have given up an average of 42 points or more. Arizona QB Khalil Tate is a standout, although he’ll be nursing an injured shoulder in this one. Additionally I’ll point out that Purdue is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three when playing with two or more weeks of rest, while Arizona is just 1-2 ATS in the same position. I think an outright upset is very possible, but in the end I’ll recommend that you grab as many points as you can. Play on the Boilermakers. Good luck…Larry |
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12-26-17 | Utah -7 v. West Virginia | Top | 30-14 | Win | 100 | 358 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* 34-Club Play is on Utah (1:30 EST). It’s the Big 12 against the Pac 12 in the Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl on Tuesday. The Utes beat Colorado 34-13 in their regular season finale, while WVU was smashed 59-31 at No. 4 Oklahoma in its final regular season outing. Utah went gang-busters out of the gate this year with a 4-0 start, but then dropped six of eight before then closing with the win over Colorado to become bowl eligible. The Utes are ranked 45th in the country in passing offense with 255.3 YPG, while ranked 58th in scoring offense with 29.4 PPG. Defensively the team excels, ranked 40th by conceding just 23.1 PPG. QB Tyler Huntley has 2,246 yards, 15 TD’s and ten INT’s, while the ground game is lead by Zack Moss, who has 1,023 rushing yards plus nine major scores. WVU averages 324.2 YPG through the air and it’s ranked 19th in scoring with 36.3 PPG. The defense though is sub-par, ranked 92nd in conceding 31.6 PPG. QB Will Grier has 3,490 passing yards, 34 TD’s and 12 INT’s. RB Justin Crawford has 1,061 yards on the ground and seven TD’s. I’ll point out though that Utah is 6-2 ATS as a favorite this year, while WVU is just 1-3 ATS when playing the role of underdog. Grier is expected to be healed for this one from hand surgery, but one has to wonder if he’ll be at 100% capacity? I think that Utah’s top notch defense turns out to the difference maker once it’s all said and done. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-25-17 | Raiders v. Eagles UNDER 47.5 | Top | 10-19 | Win | 100 | 50 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the under Raiders/Eagles (8:30 EST). The 6-8 Oakland Raiders are in Philadelphia to take on the 12-2 Eagles and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. Oakland enters off a season-ending 20-17 loss to Dallas on Sunday and has nothing left to play for at this point (the Raiders aren’t fully eliminated, but for all intents and purposes they are, the odds are massively working against them, needing luck and plenty of outside help to get in.) The Eagles on the other hand won their first game without QB Carson Wentz under center in last week’s 34-29 shootout with the Giants. But with home field now sewn up for the remainder, I think the Eagles take the foot off the gas this week as they look to “manage” this one and dictate the flow from the “get go.” Raiders’ QB Derek Carr had 171 yards and two TD’s last week, while RB Marshawn Lynch had 76 yards on 18 carries. The Raiders average just 326.8 YPG (ranked 19th), while conceding 349.3 (ranked 21st.) Eagles’ QB Nick Foles had 237 yards and four TD’s in his first start of the year last week. The Eagles struggled defensively against a determined Eli Manning, but I think the secondary will catch a break this weekend against what I believe will be a completely disinterested Giants side. Additionally I’ll point out that Oakland has already seen the total go under the number in four of six on the road already this season, while Philadelphia has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of eight this year already after two or more consecutive SU victories. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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12-24-17 | Houston v. Fresno State +2.5 | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 317 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on Fresno State (8:30 EST). The AAC squares off against the MWC in the Hawaii Bowl this year, as Houston and Fresno State battle it out at Aloha Stadium in Honolulu. The Cougars enter off a 24-14 home win over Navy to finish the regular season at 7-4, while the Bulldogs come in off a 17-14 loss to Boise State in the Mountain West title game. Houston’s strength is on the the offensive side, ranked 67th in scoring at 28.4 PPG. Defensively the team has struggled at times, ranked 39th in the nation in conceding 23 PPG. In the win over Navy, QB D’Eriq King was 21 of 27 for 277 yards, a TD and no INT’s. Fresno State averages 26.8 PPG, while on the defensive it concedes just 17.2 PPG (ranked ninth.) While the Bulldogs lost in the title game to the Broncos, the week before in their season finale they beat Boise State 28-17. In the loss last week Fresno State gave up just 364 yard to the Broncos, including only 109 on the ground. QB Marcus McMaryion has been solid overall this year despite struggling last week, with 2,384 yards, 14 TD’s and just four INT’s. I’ll point out as well that Houston is 0-6 ATS in its last six on field turf, while Fresno State is 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 on field turf. Houston only gets the slight nod offensively here. However, these defenses are no comparison. I think the Bulldogs’ World class defense turns out to the difference maker in this year’s Hawaii Bowl. Play on Fresno State. Good luck…Larry |
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12-24-17 | Seahawks +5 v. Cowboys | Top | 21-12 | Win | 100 | 122 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:35 EST). Dallas has won three straight, but I think it’s ripe for a letdown here. Seattle isn’t out of the playoff picture either, but it comes in hungry off a humbling loss at home at the hands of the Rams. In last week’s 42-7 loss to LA, QB Russell Wilson was 14 of 30 for 142 yards and one TD in garbage time. Note the week before the Hawks’ scored a big victory over Philadelphia and the team still seemed focused on that victory. Dallas held on for a 20-17 win over Oakland on SNF last week. The Cowboys finished with just 330 total yards and were only 2-of-10 on third down. QB Dak Prescott had 212 yards passing and two INT’s. I’ll point out that Seattle is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five on the road and 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 following a SU loss, while Dallas is just 1-5 ATS in its last six against teams with a winning record. I believe this one will be decided by whichever team has the ball in its hands last and as such, I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Seattle. Good luck…Larry |
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12-24-17 | Jaguars v. 49ers +4.5 | 33-44 | Win | 100 | 122 h 15 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 16 Las Vegas Insider is on the SF 49ers at 4:05 ET. Jacksonville comes in off a 45-7 win over Houston to clinch its division and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a predictable letdown here. The 49ers won’t be playing in the postseason, but they’ve quietly been dominating with three straight wins and I expect that momentum to get carried over here in this late season non-conference matchup. The Jags posted 464 yards, while holding the Texans to just 186 total yards last week. Note though that Jacksonville was just 3-for-10 on third down. QB Blake Bortles was strong with 326 yards and three TD’s. San Francisco is 3-0 with Jimmy Garoppolo under center. Last week Garoppolo was 36 for 38 and so far he has been responsible for 127 points posted by himself for his new team. I’ll point out as well that Jacksonville is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games (including just 1-2 ATS this season), while San Francisco is 3-1 ATS in its last four as an underdog. It’s a classic letdown/trap spot for the Jags and I look for the home side to take advantage. Grab the points, play on San Francisco. Good luck…Larry |
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12-24-17 | Rams v. Titans +7 | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 119 h 39 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Tennessee Titans (1:00 EST). The 10-4 LA Rams are in Tennessee to take on the 8-6 Titans and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. LA is on the cusp of clinching the NFC West after last week’s 42-7 win over the Seahawks, while Tennessee fell 25-23 at San Francisco last Sunday. Rams’ QB Jared Goff was 14 of 21 for 120 yards, two TD’s and an INT last week, while RB Todd Gurley had 152 rushing yards on 21 carries, to go along with three major scores. Perhaps what was even more impressive than the offense, was LA’s defense. which limited Seattle to just 11 first downs and 149 total yards. Tennessee though will be desperate here after letting a late lead slip away in last week’s loss to the lowly 49ers. QB Marcus Mariota was 23 of 33 for 241 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s. RB DeMarco Murray had 59 yards. The Titans gave up 414 total yards last week, but I think they’ll bounce back with a much better effort here. Tennessee will need some luck to win the division, but it won’t be rolling over and quitting and still needs to secure a Wild card. Note that the Rams are just 1-3 ATS in their last four after holding their previous opponent to a TD or less, while Tennessee is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 non-conference contests. I think LA takes the foot off the gas here and as mentioned off the top, I look for the hungry Titans to step up and take advantage. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-24-17 | Bucs v. Panthers -10 | 19-22 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 38 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST). The 4-10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in Carolina to take on the 10-4 Panthers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Bucs come in off a crushing 24-21 loss to Atlanta on Monday night, a setback which officially ends their playoff hopes. Carolina enters off a 31-24 home win over Green Bay last week. When these teams met in Week 8, it was Carolina that scored the relatively simple 17-3 victory. Panthers’ QB Cam Newton had 154 yards and a TD in that one, while Bucs’ QB Jameis Winston had 210 passing yards, no TD’s and two INT’s. Tampa owns the league’s worst pass defense, which clearly doesn’t bode well against Newton and company. The Panthers have also been tough overall defensively, allowing just 307.9 YPG, ranked fifth in the league. Additionally I’ll point out that Tampa is just 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight on the road, while Carolina is 4-0 ATS in its last four in front of the home town crowd. Carolina has averaged 32 points over its last five games and I anticipate it having no issues at all moving the ball today against this dejected Bucs defense. Lay the points with confidence, play on Carolina. Good luck…Larry |
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12-23-17 | Colts v. Ravens UNDER 41 | Top | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 98 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* Total Oddsmaker’s Error is on the under Colts/Ravens (4:30 EST). The 3-11 Indianapolis Colts get ready to battle the 8-6 Baltimore Ravens on Saturday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. The Colts fell to Denver 25-13 last weekend. Indianapolis got more bad news that injured QB Andrew Luck, who has missed every game so far with injury, may also now need biceps surgery soon. Baltimore bounced back from a tough loss against the Steelers to beat the Browns 27-10 on the road last Sunday. The Ravens are still in the hunt for the wild card berth and won’t want to leave anything to chance today. Indy QB Jacoby Brissett had 158 yards passing and 18 yards rushing with a TD in last week’s loss. So far Brissett sports a weak 11/7 TD/INT. RB Frank Gore had 31 yards on ten carries. The Colts average just 16.1 PPG, ranked 31st in the league, while conceding 26.3 (also ranked 31st.) Baltimore averages just 303.6 YPG, but makes up for it on the defensive side by conceding just 324.7 (ranked tenth.) Last week QB Joe Flacco had 288 yards a TD. Baltimore was on fop form defensively last week, holding Cleveland to just 236 total yards while also forcing four turnovers. I’ll point out as well that Indianapolis has already seen the total go under the number in eight of 13 as an underdog this year and in seven of ten against conference opponents, while Baltimore has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last eight off a win against a division rival. With nothing left to play for, I think the Colts simply go through the motions today. The Ravens are on just six days rest and won’t want to turn this onto a “track meet.” This number is just a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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12-23-17 | Army v. San Diego State -6.5 | Top | 42-35 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on San Diego State (3:30 EST). The 10-2 San Diego State Aztecs get ready to battle the 8-3 Army Black Knights on Saturday afternoon in the Armed Forces Bowl on Saturday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Rashaad Penny and the Aztecs. SDSU’s star RB will NOT be skipping the Armed Forces Bowl in preparation for the NFL draft. The Aztecs finished with a 10-2 record and went 6-2 in MWC play. SDSU’s defense is ranked 15th in the country, conceding just 304 total yards per game. The Aztecs are led by Penny on offense, who has 2,027 rushing yards and 19 TD’s so far this year. Junior QB Christian Chapman had a 13/3 TD/INT. Army finished 9-3. The Black Knights come into this one off a win over Navy in their regular season finale. QB Ahmad Bradshaw finished the year with 1,566 rushing and 12 rushing TD’s. Like its counterpart today, Army’s offense revolves around the run, led by Darnell Woolfolk and Kell Walker. The Black Knights own the No. 1 rushing offense in the country, but their defense has been hit or miss. Army had its six game win streak snapped in a 52-49 loss to North Texas on November 18th, only to then rebound in the 14-13 win over Navy. I’ll point out as well that SDSU is 4-1 ATS in its last five after allowing 20 points or less in its previous outing, while Army is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after holding its previous opponent to 14 points or less. SDSU’s strength on defense is against the run, holding opponents to just 110.8 per game average. The Aztecs though also feature a top notch offense led by the Nation’s leading rusher. All signs point to a rout, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-22-17 | Central Michigan v. Wyoming UNDER 45.5 | Top | 14-37 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the under CMU/Wyoming (4:00 EST). I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. Wyoming lost its last two regular season games, including to a 1-11 San Jose State team in its finale. Good news for Cowboys fans is the return of starting QB Josh Allen. However, I still don’t think that’s going to mean much here as Wyoming comes into this one averaging only 22.3 PPG, while conceding just 17.8. Besides, Allen finished with an unremarkable 13/6 TD/INT ratio. Central Michigan has won four straight, including a 31-24 win over Northern Illinois in its finale. QB Shane Morris has a 26/13 TD/INT ratio. On the year the Chips average 29.7 PPG, while conceding 26.8. I’ll point out though that Central Michigan has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five following a two weeks or more layoff, while Wyoming has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of six as a favorite this year and in its last four against teams with winning records. This number is just a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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12-21-17 | Temple v. Florida International +7.5 | Top | 28-3 | Loss | -130 | 35 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Florida International (8:00 EST). The Owls finished 6-6 on the year, managing to move to .500 after beating Tulsa 43-22 in their finale. FIU finished 8-4 and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Temple QB Frank Nutile was 20 of 28 for 262 yards, three TD’s an no INT’s in the Owls win over the Golden Hurricanes. Nutile has been decent in his limited time this year, although he does sport a pedestrian 11/7 TD/INT ratio. The defense looked poor last week, allowing Tulsa to post 460 yards, including 314 on the ground. The Owls average 24.6 PPG and concede 27.7. The Golden Panthers average 27.5 PPG and concede 28.5. QB Alex McGough had 295 yards and three TD’s in last week’s win over UMass, while also rushing for 108 yards and a TD. The defense looked shaky in allowing 548 yards. However I’ll point out that Temple is just 1-4 ATS in its last five non-conference games, while FIU is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 after scoring more than 40 points in its previous game. Florida International scored 104 points combined over its last two regular season games and I look for that offensive momentum to get carried per here. Grab the points, Good luck…Larry |
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12-20-17 | Louisiana Tech +5 v. SMU | Top | 51-10 | Win | 100 | 35 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Louisiana Tech (8:00 EST). 6-6 Louisiana Tech gets ready to battle 7-5 SMU in the Frisco Bowl from Texas on Wednesday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs come in with momentum, as they needed to win their final two games of the regular season to qualify for a bowl. The Mustangs on the other hand sort of backed their way into the postseason, losing three straight before salvaging a win over Tulane in their finale. Louisiana Tech has been fantastic defensively down the stretch and I think that carries over here. Note that Secdrick Cooper and Jaylon Ferguson were both named to the All-Conference USA First Team earlier in the week: “We are excited, enthusiastic, and fired up about having the opportunity to go to a bowl game this year and this could not have worked out better,” head coach Skip Holtz noted. “We have been in the Dallas Metroplex area three out of the last four years and we have a huge alumni base in the Dallas-Fort Worth area.” SMU is back in a bowl for the first time since 2012. Chad Morris was in his third year as head coach, but he won’t be coaching tonight as he’s been lured away by Arkansas. The Mustangs’ offense is centred around the run, led by Ke’Mon Freeman and Xavier Jones, with a combined 20 major scores between the two. I think it’s interesting to note though that Louisiana Tech is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 off a win against a conference rival (including 2-1 ATS this season), while SMU is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven in the same position (including just 1-2 ATS this year.) I think the Bulldogs under-the-radar defense keeps them competitive. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-19-17 | Akron +23 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 3-50 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Akron (7:00 EST). The 7-6 Akron Zips get ready to battle the 10-3 FAU Owls and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the underdog. The Zips were 6-3 in MAC play, while FAU was 9-0 in C-USA action. Akron is by far the more motivated side in my opinion. The Zips fell 45-28 in the MAC Championship game to Toledo. Expect to see both Kato Nelson and Thomas Woodson under center today for the Zips. Woodson finished with 1,777 passing yards, while Nelson had an 8/2 TD/INT ratio. The Owls finished with nine straight wins and steamrolled UNT 41-17 in the C-USA title game. FAU features a strong run game, led by RB Devin Singletary, who had 1,796 rushing yards and 29 rushing TD’s. I’ll point out though that FAU TE Harrison Bryant, who missed the last two games with an injury, will also be sitting this one out. Bryant posted 408 receiving yards and five major scores. Additionally note that Akron is 3-1 ATS in its last four after a two week or more period of rest, while FAU is just 1-2 ATS in its last three in the same position. I think that Akron’s offense can keep it competitive, so grab as many points as you can. Good luck…Larry |
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12-18-17 | Falcons v. Bucs OVER 48.5 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* SUPER TOTAL is on the over Falcons/Bucs (8:30 EST). The 8-5 Atlanta Falcons get ready to battle the 4-9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers and in my opinion, all signs point to an old fashioned shootout on Monday Night! Atlanta comes to town off a Thursday night win over New Orleans, keeping it in control of its own destiny. Tampa Bay is already looking ahead to next year, but won’t be going down without a fight today as it’ll look to play spoiler and to avenge a 34-20 loss ATL earlier in the season. Note that when these teams played a couple of weeks ago, ATL WR Julio Jones had 253 yards and two TD’s on 12 catches. Last Thursday Jones had 98 yards on five catches in the 20-17 victory over the Saints. Tampa suffered a 24-21 home loss to Detroit and lost its best defensive player in Gerald McCoy in the process last Sunday. The Bucs are second to last in the league in total defense (allowing 389.3 YPG average), while ranked No. 22 in points given up (24.0.) Bucs’ QB Jameis Winston has had a disappointing year, going for 14 TD’s, eight INT’s, ten fumbles and 23 sacks. Winston has lost seven straight games that he’s started and will clearly be eager to close the season on a high note. Additionally I’ll point out that Atlanta has seen the total go over the number in two of its last three Monday Night games, in three of its last five as a road favorite of 3.5 to seven points and in both games this year it’s played against a club with a losing record, while Tampa has seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of seven as an underdog this season and in two of three trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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12-17-17 | Patriots -2 v. Steelers | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 124 h 17 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 15 Las Vegas Insider is on the NE Patriots at 4:25 ET. The 10-3 New England Patriots are in Pittsburgh to take on the 11-2 Steelers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the defending champs. After a loss to Miami last week, New England sits at 10-3 and one game back in the AFC, while Pittsburgh comes in having won eight straight, most recently coming from behind to knock off the Ravens at home in a thriller. I think it’s important to point out though that the Pats haven’t lost back-to-back games since Week 12 and 13 of the 2015 campaign. Clearly New England was collectively caught “looking ahead” to this much more important game last week: “It was a bad night,” Brady assessed. “We’ve had a lot of good nights this year. This was a bad night.” I simply feel that Pittsburgh runs out of gas here. It’s win streak is extremely impressive and it does have the benefit of playing at home, but last week’s 39-38 Sunday night victory over Baltimore was an emotionally draining one and I believe the team comes in “hung over” still from that monumental win. Remember, in January of 2017, New England throttled the Steelers 36-17 in the AFC title game. In conclusion, I guess we shouldn't have been too surprised by the Dolphins' win last Sunday. Sure, the Pats won 35-14 last season in Miami but the Dolphins had won iin New England' s three previous visits, including 2015 when the loss cost the Pats the AFC's No. 1 seed. What was shocking about last Sunday's result was Brady completing just 24 of 43 for 223 with one TD and two INTs (note: he entered the game with just four INTs on 438 attempts). What's more, the Pats were 0 of 11 on third down tries! Really think Brady will play that poorly again? Especially with so much on the line vs. Pittsburgh and Big Ben? A check of the record book reveals that New England is 10-3 against the Steelers during the Belichick era, including 3-0 in the playoffs. What's more, the Pats are 54-18 SU and 48-24 ATS off a loss since 2000! I’m jumping on the defending champs in this matchup. Good luck…Larry |
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12-17-17 | Rams v. Seahawks -1.5 | 42-7 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 46 m | Show | |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:05 EST). Divisional games are always the most important and they almost always mean more to the home side. LA had its two game win streak snapped in a 43-35 defeat to Philadelphia at home last Sunday, while Seattle also had its two game win streak broken in a 30-24 setback at Jacksonville. If recent history is any precedence though, then the Hawks have to be liking their chances this afternoon, because when these teams met back on October 7th in LA, it was Seattle that pulled away for the 16-10 victory. LA ranks second in the league in scoring with 30.5 PPG, while ranked 12th on the defensive side by conceding 20.4. QB Jared Goff has 3,383 yards, 22 TD’s and six INT’s. RB Todd Gurley has 1,035 rushing yards and ten TD’s. Seattle averages 24.2 PPG, while conceding 19.4. QB Russell Wilson has 3,537 yards, 29 TD’s and 11 INT’s. He also has a team high 482 rushing yards, plus three more scores on the ground. WR Doug Baldwin has 860 receiving yards and five TD’s. I’ll point out though that LA is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after allowing 40 points or more in its previous contest, while Seattle is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 following a straight up loss. Seattle’s defense isn’t what it used to be, but it’s still very formidable, among the league leaders in almost every category on that side of the ball. The Rams have struggled to move the ball against the league’s better defenses and this will ceratinly be a difficult atmosphere to play in as well. When you add it all up, all signs point to a crucial victory for the hungry Seahawks. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-17-17 | Ravens v. Browns +7 | 27-10 | Loss | -105 | 120 h 49 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Cleveland Browns (1:00 EST). The 7-6 Baltimore Ravens are at Cleveland to take on the 0-13 Browns and for a number of different reasons, i think this one favors the home side. The pressure is on Baltimore this weekend after a crushing 39-38 loss at Pittsburgh on Sunday. Cleveland can empathize, as it blew a late two-touchdown lead late in the fourth quarter to Green Bay last week, falling 27-21 in OT. Note that this is a revenge game for the Browns after the Ravens took the first one 24-10 back on September 17th. Last week Baltimore gave up 438 passing yards to the Steelers. RB Alex Collins was a bright spot with 120 rushing yards. QB Joe Flacco was 20 of 35 for 269 yards, two TD’s and a pick. The Ravens average just 298.1 YPG (27th), while conceding 329.2. Browns’ QB DeShone Kizer had 214 yards, three TD’s and two INT’s in last week’s loss to the Packers. RB Isaiah Crowell has been solid this year with 716 yards and four TD’s. WR Josh Gordon has created quite the stir since his return and in two games he so far has 154 yards on seven catches with one TD. Cleveland averages 311.4 YPG and concedes 328.3. It’s interesting to note though that Baltimore is just 2-3 ATS in its last five after allowing 38 points or more in its previous contest, while Cleveland is 2-1 ATS in its last three trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. While I do indeed feel that the conditions are right for an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Cleveland. Good luck…Larry |
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12-17-17 | Eagles v. Giants +7.5 | Top | 34-29 | Win | 100 | 120 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the New York Giants (1:00 EST). Philadelphia comes to The Big Apple off a big 43-35 win over the Rams, while New York enters off a 30-10 loss to the Cowboys. Note that when these teams played earlier in the year, it was the Eagles that hung on for the hard-fought 27-24 victory. The Eagles are ranked third in the league in total offense with 390.5 YPG, but No. 1 in scoring offense with 31.1 PPG. Defensively Philadelphia has also been sharp, ranked fourth overall by allowing 294.2 YPG. This is a prime letdown spot for Philadlephia if I’ve ever seen it. Last week’s epic win over the Rams clinched the team the NFC East title. But the victory came at a massive cost, as starting QB Carson Wentz was lost to injury for the rest of the season. Backup Nick Foles has plenty of weapons to work with, but he hasn’t seen any serious action since 2013/14. Jay Ajayi looked decent last week, but the defense looked horrible. New York averages just 15.3 PPG, while conceding 24.7, ranked 26th. In last weeks loss QB Eli Manning was 31 of 46 for 227 yards, a TD and three INT’s. Manning was playing from behind from the get-go and with nothing to lose this weekend either, we can expect the veteran to once again “air it out.” Manning is playing for pride this weekend after his recent benching. Certainly he can’t be happy with his performance last weekend. The Eagles are an awesome team, but all of the above external factors working against them here will be too much for Foles to overcome in my opinion. While I’ll stop short in calling for an outright upset, I do definitely feel that the desperate Giants can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-16-17 | Chargers v. Chiefs +2 | Top | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 104 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Kansas City Chiefs (8:25 EST). The winner of this contest will take first place in the division. LA enters off a 30-13 home win over Washington, while KC enters off a 26-15 win over Oakland. If recent history is any precedence, then the Chiefs have to be loving their chances today, because when these teams met earlier in the year, it was KC that pulled away for the comfortable 24-10 victory. The Chargers come into this one ranked fourth in the league in total offense with 372.7 per game, while ranked 12th in total yards allowed with 325.1 YPG conceded. Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers was 18 of 31 last week for 319 yards and two TD’s. KC averages 371.3 YPG and concedes 373.4 per contest. Last week QB Alex Smith was 20 of 34 for 268 yards. I’ll point out though that LA is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten after posting more than 350 total yards in its previous game, while KC is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 after psoting more than 150 rushing yards in its previous outing. The Chiefs won’t be taking anything for granted here after breaking a four-game slide in their last outing. The Chargers have been on a roll, but this is a tough environment at this time of year and I think Rivers and company finally have a letdown. Play on Kansas City. Good luck…Larry |
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12-16-17 | Marshall +5.5 v. Colorado State | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 121 h 8 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Marshall (4:30 EST). The 7-5 Marshall Thundering Herd get ready to battle the 7-8 Colorado State Rams in the New Mexico Bowl on Saturday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Marshall. Marshall QB Chase Litton finished with a 23/12 TD/INT and threw at least one TD strike in all but two games this year. The Herd feature two capable backs in Tyler King and Keion Davis. Marshall’s strength is on the defensive side, especially against the run. The Rams weakness is on the defensive side, especially against pass heavy offenses. QB Nick Stevens had a 27/10 TD/INT. Colorado State also features a strong run game led by Dalyn Dawkins, who had 1,349 rushing yards on the year. I’ll point out though that the Herd are 5-1 ATS in their last six folliowing an ATS loss and 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site affairs, while the Rams are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site contests. Marshall has the better overall defense, allowing an average of just 125 rushing yards per game. Colorado State allows an average of 243 passing yards per game. I like Litton to light up this suspect Rams secondary and for Marshall to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-16-17 | Oregon -7.5 v. Boise State | 28-38 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 13 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Oregon (3:30 EST). Boise State enters off a 17-14 win in the Mountain West title game back on December 2nd, while Oregon won its final two of the regular season (which included an impressive 69-10 win over Oregon State in “The Civil War.”) The Broncos finished 39th in scoring this year with an average of 32.1 PPG. Boise State was decent defensively as well, allowing 22.5 PPG. QB Montell Cozart had 747 yards, ten TD’s and one INT. He’d go on to finish third on the team in rushing with 361 yards and four scores. QB Brett Rypien had 2,515 yards, 14 TD’s and four INT’s. Oregon averaged 36.7 PPG and allowed 28.3. QB Justin Herbert had 1,750 yards, 13 TD’s and three INT’s. RB Royce Freeman has 1,475 rushing yards and 16 major scores on the ground. I’ll point out as well that Oregon is already 1-0 ATS this year when playing with two or more weeks of rest and also 6-3 ATS in its last nine games played on “turf,” while Boise State is just 13-19 ATS in its last 32 non-conference games and just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 against teams with winning records. I think the Ducks carry over the momentum that they found in the final two regular season games and I have a hard time seeing the Broncos keeping pace down the stretch. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-16-17 | North Texas +7 v. Troy | 30-50 | Loss | -115 | 118 h 38 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick in my Superstar Triple Play is on North Texas (1:00 EST). North Texas comes off a 41-17 loss to Florida Atlantic in the A-10 Championship Game, while Troy tied Appalachian State for the Sun Belt title. The Mean Green had little chance against high-powered FAU, which would wind up going undefeated in conference action. QB Mason Fine threw two INT’s in the loss. In three games previous though Fine had posted a 9/2 TD/INT. Troy has the better overall record than App State at 10-2, but both teams went 7-1 in conference action. The Trojans beat Arkansas State 32-25, but gave up over more than 300 yards then they themselves registered. I’ll point out that UNT is 7-1 ATS in its last eight non-conference games, while Troy is 2-5 ATS in its last seven following an ATS victory and just 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference games. Florida Atlantic was a team of destiny this season. UNT though excelled down the stretch of the regular season and I like the Mean Green bounce back and to keep this one competitive down the stretch. Grab the points, play on North Texas. Good luck…Larry |
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12-14-17 | Broncos -2.5 v. Colts | Top | 25-13 | Win | 100 | 56 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Denver Broncos (8:25 EST). The 4-9 Denver Broncos are in Indianapolis to take on the 3-10 Colts and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Broncos got off the schneid last week, ending an eight-game losing streak with a 23-0 win over the Jets on Sunday. The Colts come in with zero momentum, having lost four straight, most recently a 13-7 loss in snowy Buffalo this past weekend. When these teams played last year it was Denver that scored the 34-20 win and suffice it to say, I expect a similar result in this one once it’s all said and done. Last week Denver shutout the Jets and knocked out New York’s starting QB Josh McCown. Broncos’ QB Trevor Siemian had 200 yards, a TD and no picks. Overall the Broncos ranks 22nd in total offense with 312.1 YPG, while ranked first in total defense, allowing 280.5 YPG. Last week Colts’ RB Frank Gore had 130 yards on 36 carries. QB Jacoby Brissett so far has 11 TD’s and seven picks on the year. Indianpolis though ranks 30th in total offense this season, averaging just 290.7 YPG, while ranked 29th on the defensive side by conceding 375.3 per contest. Additionally I’ll point out that Devner is 3-1 ATS in its last four “Thursday” night games (playing on the short week), while Indianapolis is just 1-2 ATS in its last three in the same position. I think the Broncos’ tough defensive unit proves to be the difference maker today. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-11-17 | Patriots -10.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New England Patriots (8:30 EST). The 10-2 New England Patriots are in Miami to take on the 5-7 Dolphins and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. This is a big game for the Pats, who with a victory today would wrap up their ninth straight AFC East title. TE Rob Gronkowski is out, but I don’t think that’s going to slow down Tom Brady and company one bit. The Fish come in off a 35-9 home win over the lowly Broncos last week, but I think they suffer a predictable letdown here. And if recent history is any precedence, then New England has to be liking its chances today, because when these teams met on November 26th, it was the Patriots that came away with the relatively simple 35-17 victory. So far the Pats average 413.2 YPG, while allowing 375.7. Last week Miami’ QB Jay Cutler had 235 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s. The Dolphins average just 292.6 YPG and concede 339.9. I’ll point out that New England is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 following an ATS victory, while Miami is 0-8 ATS in its last eight Monday night contests and just 1-5 ATS in its last six as the underdog in this series. I like New England and Brady to control this one on both sides of the ball and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS victory. Lay the points, play on the Patriots. Good luck…Larry |
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12-10-17 | Eagles v. Rams -1 | 43-35 | Loss | -125 | 142 h 39 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the LA Rams (4:25 EST). LA has won six of its last seven, most recenlty coming off victories over the Saints and Cardinals. Philadelphia is 10-2, but it comes in off a tough setback in Seattle and suffice it to say, I think it’s primed for another letdown in Week 14. Philadelphia allows 17.9 PPG. But clearly the Eagles hit a wall last week and note that this is in fact a position in which they’ve struggled in mightily for bettors, going just 1-3 ATS in its last four following a SU loss. RB Todd Gurley had 74 yards on 19 attempts for the Rams last week. QB Jared Goff had two TD strikes in the 32-16 win. Additionally I’ll point out that Philadelphia is just 1-4 ATS in its last five road games against teams with a winning home record, while LA is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 home games agianst teams with winning road records. I think the Eagles are running out of gas, while the Rams are just starting to hit their stride. Play on LA. Good luck…Larry |
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12-10-17 | Seahawks +3 v. Jaguars | Top | 24-30 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:25 EST). The 8-4 Seattle Seahawks are in Jacksonville to take on the 8-4 Jaguars and for a number of different reasons, I believe this one favors the visitors. Seattle is still within striking distance of the division lead after beating Philadelphia 24-10 on Sunday. QB Russell Wilson had 227 yards and three TD’s. Note that Wilson is tied for second in the NFL with 26 TD’s and he also has 432 rushing yards on the year. The Seahawks will be confident as they come in having won four straight road games after opening season setbacks at Green Bay and Tennessee. The Jags are tied with the Titans for the divison lead and they smashed the Colts 30-10 this past Sunday. QB Blake Bortles went for 309 yards and two TD’s. The Jacksonville defense posted four sacks and it now leads the league with 45 total. I’ll point out though that Seattle is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four on the road, while Jacksonville is a poor 1-5 ATS in its last six following an ATS victory. As good as Bortles has looked of late, I’m still giving the nod to Wilson in this matchup. And that’s the difference maker for me. While I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Seattle. Good luck…Larry |
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12-10-17 | Vikings v. Panthers +3 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 140 h 45 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 14 Las Vegas Insider is on the Car Panthers at 1;00 ET. Carolina has questions marks with some of its key pieces on offense, but QB Cam Netwon will be under center. TE Greg Olson, RB Jonathan Stewart and WR Devin Funchess are all listed as day-to-day, but I still think that the home side will find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon. The Vikes control the NFC North and come to town off eight straight victories. The Panthers look to get back on track as they saw their four-game win streak end in a loss to New Orleans last weekend. Minnesota didn’t look overly impressive offensively in last week’s 14-9 win over Atlanta, but Case Keenum had 227 yards and two TD’s. In last week’s loss to the Saints, Newton had 183 yards, two TD’s and INT’s. Carolina though is 4-1 ATS in its last five after allowing 30 points or more in its previous contest, while Minnesota is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after holding its previous opponent to ten points or less. In conclusion, Atlanta's 20-17 win Thursday night over New Orleans was great news for the Panthers. Carolina can now move back into a first-place tie with the 9-4 Saints in the NFC South with a win. The Falcons and Saints play again in Week 16, so the Panthers have a great chance to "make a move." This contest with the Vikings is the first of three straight home games, with the Packers (no Rodgers?) and the Bucs (just 4-8, currently), up next. The Vikings have done everything right and the team's D has been superb but remember, this is Minnesota's THIRD straight road game. The Vikings are a very good team but they are NOT a great team! Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-10-17 | Packers v. Browns +3.5 | 27-21 | Loss | -110 | 138 h 21 m | Show | |
My 9* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Cleveland Browns (1:00 EST). The 6-6 Green Bay Packers are in Cleveland to take on the 0-12 Browns and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. After losing five of six, the Packers came up with a win over Tampa Bay last weekend. Green Bay’s offensive line has given up 42 sacks this year, which doesn’t bode well for Packers’ backup QB Brett Hundley in my opinion. So far Hundley has five TD’s on 206 attempts to go along with eight iNT’s. Cleveland only averages 14.7 PPG, but it does possess a Top 10 defense in terms of yardage given up. WR Josh Gordon returned in last week’s loss and looked impressive. Duke Johnson Jr. is a decent RB. QB DeShone Kizer isn’t great, but he’s hungry. Green Bay’s win last week was encouraging, but the team faces an uphill battle with Aaron Rodgers still not at 100%. I do firmly believe this is Cleveland’s greatest chance this season to get off the schneid. While I obvoiusly wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Cleveland Good luck…Larry |
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12-09-17 | Army v. Navy -3.5 | Top | 14-13 | Loss | -110 | 144 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Navy (3:00 EST). The 8-3 Army Black Knights get ready to battle the 6-5 Navy Midshipmen in the annual Army/Navy game and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Midshipmen. Army comes in off a disturbing 52-49 loss to North Texas, while Navy fell 24-14 to Houston in its latest action. Note that this is a revenge game for Navy. Last year Army would break a 14-game losing streak in the series, prevailing 27-17. The 52 points and 489 total yards given up last week were both season highs for Army. Overall the Black Knights were strong defensively this year, but I think there’s cause for concern if you’re an Army fan. Army leads the country with an average of 368 rushing yards per game. Navy QB Zach Abey was just 2 of 4 for 45 yards last week. But like the Knights, the Midshipmen are a run first offnese, as Abey has 1,322 rushing yards, along with 14 major scores on the ground this season. RB Malcom Perry was a bright spot in Navy’s most recent loss, rushing for 82 yards on 15 carries. Army has beaten up on “lesser” competition all year and the Black Knights defense was exposed in the loss to North Texas. Adittionally note that Army is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven against teams with winning records and only 5-6 ATS this season on games played on “turf,” while Navy is 3-1 ATS this year against teams with winning records and 5-3 ATS in games played on turf. I think the “hungrier” team finds a way to get the job done at the end of the day. Lay the points, play on Navy. Good luck…Larry |
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12-07-17 | Saints v. Falcons +1 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 74 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Atlanta Falcons (8:25 EST). The 9-3 New Orleans Saints are in Atlanta to take on the 7-5 Falcons on Thursday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. A loss to division rival New Orleans this week would likely be too much for Atlanta to climb out of. The Falcons come in off a 14-9 loss to Minnesota. The Saints come in off a satisfying win over division rival Carolina at home and I think they have a letdown here against the now desperate Falcons. New Orleans ranks second in total offense with an average of 408.6 YPG, while ranked 12th in total defense by allowing 330.1 YPG. Atlanta ranks eighth in YPG with 365.2, while ranked eighth on the defensive side by conceding 321. New Orleans has been fantastic in almost every single ATS statistical category there is this year, but note that it’s just 1-2 ATS in all games when the line is set between +3 and -3 (and just 2-6 ATS in its last eight in the same position), while Atlanta is a perfect 2-0 ATS in its last two as a home dog of three points or less and 11-5 ATS in its last 16 as an underdog overall. Division contests always mean the most and they almost always mean more to the home side. This has essentially become a “do or die” for Matt Ryan and company and I believe they answer the call at home on the short week. Play on the Falcons. Good luck…Larry |
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12-04-17 | Steelers v. Bengals +6 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 35 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cincinnati Bengals (8:30 EST). The Bengals season is for all intents and purposes on the line tonight and as such, we’re clearly not going to have to question the home sides overall effort this evening. This is also a revenge game for Cincinnati after it dropped the first matchup with the Steelers 29-14 back on October 22nd. If the Bengals can pull off the upset, they’ll move back to .500 (6-6), with a very winnable game at home against the Browns on deck. This is a make or break part of the entire 2017/18 campaign for Cincinnati. Pittsburgh on the other hand has won six straight, but had to hold on for dear life in last week’s 31-28 home win over the Aaron Rodger-less Packers. The Steelers’ defense is starting to show signs of fatigue and I think the unit has another letdown here against this revenge minded and improving Bengals offense. Additioanlly I’ll point out that Pittsburgh is just 7-10 ATS in its last 17 after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Cincinnati is 3-2 ATS as an underdog this season and 10-7 ATS in its last 17 against the division. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Bengals. Good luck…Larry |
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12-03-17 | Eagles v. Seahawks +6 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 132 h 47 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 3 Las Vegas Insider is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:30 ET. Yes, the Eagles have won nine straight, own the NFL's best record at 10-1 and also its best point-differential at plus-160. However, are you aware that the Eagles have played just two teams which currently own a winning record? They lost to the Chiefs 27-20 back in Week 2 and note that KC is just 6-5, after having lost five of its last six. Then there is Philly's 28-23 win at Carolina in Week 6 and for sure, the Panthers are proving to be one the NFC's best teams at 8-3. However, since that win at Carolina, the Eagles' last five wins have come over Washington, San Francisco, Denver, Dallas and Chicago. Only Washington and Dallas are competitive (both are 5-6) but note that Philly met Dallas without "Zeke" (0-3 without Elliott), LT Smith and LB Lee. As for the trio of the 49ers, Broncos (losers of seven straight) and the Bears, they own a combined record of 7-26 (.212). It's true that Seattle's defense is not what it used to be and that the running game is highly suspect but Russell Wilson is carrying this offense. Let's mention that he is a remarkable 37-7 SU (.841) at home as a starting QB in the regular season and the Seahawks haven't been a home dog this big since Wilson took over the job under center in his rookie season of 2012. "Just for grins," I went back to Week 1 of the 2017 season and checked the power ratings of Seattle and Philadelphia. If these teams would have met in Week 1 at Seattle, the Seahawks would have been favored by eight points. That means we've had a two-TD swing (give or take)! You make the call!! No, let me. Play on the Seahawks. Good luck…Larry |
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12-03-17 | Browns +14 v. Chargers | 10-19 | Win | 100 | 102 h 11 m | Show | |
My 9* ODDSMAKER’S ERROR is on the Cleveland Browns (4:05 EST). The 0-11 Cleveland Browns are in LA to take on the 5-6 Chargers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Cleveland comes to town off a 30-16 loss to Cincinnati last week, while the Chargers got by the Cowboys 26-6 on the road on Thanksgiving. The Browns only win came against the Chargers last season (20-17.) Last week Cleveland QB DeShone Kizer was 18 of 31 for 268 yards with no TD’s or INT’s. Kizer has for the most part struggled this year, but I’m expecting him to produce against the inconsistent Chargers’ secondary. RB Isaiah Crowell was a bright spot last week with 95 rushing yards on 16 carries. The Chargers looked great on the defensive side of the ball last week, holding the Cowboys to 247 total yards, including just 79 on the ground. That was of course without RB Ezekiel Elliot in the line-up. Dallas is a mess without Elliot, so I’m not reading too much into last weeks defensive performance by the Bolts. Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers was 27 of 33 for 434 yards and three TD’s in last week’s win. He’s been fantastic overall with a 20/7 TD/INT, but regression at some point does seem imminent in my opinion. Is the fact that Cleveland is 3-1 ATS its last four against the AFC West relevant in this situation? It doesn’t hurt (it’s also very interesting to note that LA is jsut 1-4 ATS in its last five against the AFC North.) Additionally I’ll point out that the Chargers are just 1-2 ATS in their last three after two or more consecutive wins. With Washington coming to town next weekend, I also believe that the home side gets caught “looking ahead.” While I’m not calling for the outright upset, I do like Kizer and the hungry Browns to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-03-17 | Vikings v. Falcons -2.5 | 14-9 | Loss | -130 | 99 h 7 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST). Minnesota has won seven in a row and I think it finally comes up short this weekend. The Vikes were most recently in action on Thanksgiving, taking care of business against Detroit. The Falcons come in on a three-game win streak, coming out on the right side of Dallas, Seattle and Tampa Bay. These teams are both on fire. The Vikes get the job done with an awesome defensive unit which leads the league in most categories. Case Keenum has emerged as an above par game manager. The run game and special teams are also strong, so when you add it all up you have a team which for the most part is pretty tough to matchup against. The Falcons though have found their swagger. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones are putting up impressive numbers (Jones had over 250 yards receiving last week). Atlanta also looked sharp defensively last week. So where’s the value? I’ll point out that Minnesota is interestingly just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games played on a grass field, while Atlanta is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 following a SU win and interestingly, 4-1 ATS in its last five after scoring more than 30 points in its previous game. I expect a war, but I think Ryan will in the end get the better of Keenum and I believe the Vikes’ defense finally “cracks.” Lay the points, play on the Falcons. Good luck…Larry |
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12-03-17 | 49ers v. Bears -3 | 15-14 | Loss | -120 | 99 h 7 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Chicago Bears (1:00 EST). The Bears look to stop a four-game slide on Sunday. Here comes the perfect opponent to get untracked against. San Francisco looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after it snapped a season-opening nine game skid with a win over the Giants, followed by an immediate return to mediocrity in a setback to the Seahawks this past Sunday. San Francisco will be turning to Jimmy Garoppolo moving forward. He entered in last week’s win after starter CJ Beathard went down with injury and in the end he managed a ten-yard TD strike to Louis Murphy on the final play. The Bears couldn’t get anything going in last week’s 31-3 loss to Philadelphia. Mitchell Trubisky struggled and so too did the ground game, producing just 65 yards. I’ll point out though that San Francisco has struggled mightily in this spot for bettors for a while now, going just 1-4 ATS in its last five against the NFC, while Chicago is still 3-1-1 ATS in its last five following an ATS loss. The Bears’ run game will return to the norm here, previous to last week’s poor performance they’d held down the No. 5 rushing attack in the league. A tough spot for Garoppolo as well. I think Chicago’s defense and run game prove to be too much for the inconsistent visitors this afternoon. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-02-17 | Miami-FL +7.5 v. Clemson | 3-38 | Loss | -130 | 152 h 32 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on Miami Florida (8:00 EST). The Hurricane had a letdown in their finale, falling 24-14 at Pittsburgh to finish 7-1 in conference action, while the Tigers also went 7-1 in the ACC and would go on to spank South Carolina 34-10 in their final regular season game. The Hurricanes clearly got caught “looking ahead” to this game and stumbled at the worst time last week. Regardless of that “dud” though, Miami Florida comes in ranked 40th in the country in scoring with 31.9 PPG average, while ranked 15th overall on the defensive side by conceding just 18.3 PPG. Miami QB Malik Rosier has 2,798 yards with a 25/9 TD/INT ratio. Clemson averages 35.2 PPG and concedes 13.6. QB Kelly Bryant has 2,426 yards and a 12/6 TD/INT, while also running for 639 yards and ten more TD’s. The Hurricanes are banged up at RB, but note that Miami Florida is 4-2 ATS in its last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. Also note that Clemson is still just 3-5 ATS in its last eight against the conference. I think last week was a wake up call for Miami Florida. The Hurricanes have the defense to slow down this dynamic Clemson offense and while I’m not calling for an outright upset, I do expect the hungry/taltented Canes to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-02-17 | Georgia +2.5 v. Auburn | 28-7 | Win | 100 | 147 h 23 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Georgia (4:00 EST). My one and only 10* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR was on Auburn last weekend and the Tigers would go on to beat No. 1 Alabama outright. But for the SEC Championship Game, I’m “flipping the script” and going with the underdog again, as I expect Auburn to come in “hung over” still from that emotional upset victory. There’s a lot on the line today, as the winner will almost assuredly get an invite to the College Football Playoff. Since losing to Auburn earlier in the year, Georgia bounced back by hammering Kentucky 42-13 and then smashing Georgia Tech 38-7 this past weekend. Georgia racked up 247 rushing yards in that one. Which wasn’t the case in the first game against the Tigers, who limited the Bulldogs to just 46 yards. QB Jake Fromm was just 13 of 28 for 184 yards, one TD and no INT’s, while Auburn’ QB Jarrett Stidham had 214 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s. “You don’t shake a memory,” Georgia head coach Kirby Smart assessed earlier in the week. “You put it in their face and you challenge people. Fundamentally, we’ve got to play better than we played last time and we obviously have got to play with more discipline and composure to avoid the knucklehead decisions that we had in the game. You can’t give good teams things. If you give them things, it makes it twice as hard…. But at the end of the day, it really is not about the game before. It’s really about the motivation in the game. Our kids understand that. They know they’ve got an opportunity to go out and at least erase what they did last time. This is a fresh start to go out and play a new game.” I’ll point out though that Georgia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine trying to revenge a loss against an opponent (including 4-0 ATS this season), while Auburn is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 off a win against a conference rival. I think Georgia rides the “revenge” angle to victory today. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-02-17 | TCU v. Oklahoma -5.5 | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 144 h 4 m | Show | |
8* PERFECT STORM on Oklahoma (12:30 EST). The No. 2, 11-1 Oklahoma Sooners get ready to battle the No. 10, 10-2 TCU Horned Frogs on Saturday afternoon in the Big 12 Championship game and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Sooners. When these teams played on November 11th from Norman, Oklahoma smashed TCU 38-20, rolling up 533 yards of offense, including 333 through the air from dynamic QB Baker Mayfield (3 TD’s.) THe Horned Frogs come in off a 45-22 home win over Baylor last Saturday. QB Kenny Hill had 325 yards and three TD’s. Hill has 2,604 passing yards and a 19/5 TD/INT. The TCU offense averages 422.1 YPG (47th), while the defense has been hit or miss, great against the run (90 YPG) and poor against the pass (227.5 YPG allowed.) The Sooners will need to win this game to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive. Mayfield finished with 4,097 yards and a 37/5 TD/INT. Oklahoma’s weakness comes on the defensive side, where it allows 390.3 YPG, including 241.2 through the air. Oklahoma averages 45.2 PPG though and I simply can’t see Hill and company matching pace down the stretch. Mayfield is a man on a mission right now. Also note that TCU is just 2-4 ATS this year off a win against a conference rival, while Oklahoma is 4-3 ATS this year in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-01-17 | Stanford v. USC -3 | Top | 28-31 | Push | 0 | 127 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH is on USC (8:00 EST). The 9-3 Stanford Cardinal are ready to duke it out with the 10-2 USC Trojans on Friday night for the SEC title. If recent history is any precedence, then USC has to be loving its chances today, because when these teams met back in early September, it was the Trojans that pulled away for the easy 42-24 victory. Stanford comes in off two straight wins, most recently handling Notre Dame last week. QB KJ Costello had 1,169 passing yards and a 9/2 TD/INT ratio this season. The Cardinal offense though revolves around the run led by Bryce Love, who has posted over 100 yards in all but one game this year. Stanford also has a strong defense which concedes just 20 PPG. That defense though could not contain the high-flying Trojans in September, allowing 623 total yards. USC allows 26 PPG and it’s been better against the run than the pass. QB Sam Darnold had 3,462 passing yards and a 24/12 TD/INT ratio this year. Overall the offense is ranked 18th in the country by averaging 489 yards per contest. I’ll point out as well that Stanford is 0-5 ATS this year following an ATS victory, while the Trojans are interestingly 5-1 ATS in their last six after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game. Darnold torched the Cardinal for four TD’s and the Trojans piled on over 620 yards of offense in the first game. I have a hard time seeing Stanford slowing down Darnold again. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-30-17 | Redskins v. Cowboys -122 | Top | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 60 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Dallas Cowboys (8:25 EST). The 5-6 Washington Redskins are in Dallas to take on the 5-6 Cowboys and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Dallas lost to LA 28-6 on Thanksgiving, while the Redskins struggled in a 20-10 winning effort over the lowly Giants last Thursday. Washignton QB Kirk Cousins was 19 of 31 for 242 yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. Cousins has been consistent this year, so far with 3,038 yards, 19 TD’s and six INT’s. The Skins rank in the middle of the pack on both sides of the ball this season. Dallas QB Dak Prescott has struggled without sidekick RB Ezekiel Elliot. Last week he was 20 of 27 for 179 yards and two INT’s. Prescott on the year though still has 2,318 yards, 16 TD’s and nine picks. Like their counterpart today, the Cowboys rank in the middle of the pack this season on both offense and defense. I’ll point out though that Washington is already just 1-2 ATS this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent (fell 33-19 at home in the first matchup with the Cowboys,) while Dallas is still 5-3 ATS this year as a fav and 2-1 ATS againt the division (Redskins are just 1-3 ATS against the division.) I like Prescott to put together his biggest game of the year and for the desperate home side to find a way to stop the slide. Play on the Cowboys. Good luck…Larry |
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11-27-17 | Texans v. Ravens UNDER 38 | 16-23 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 10 m | Show | |
My 8* SUPER TOTAL is the under Texans/Ravens (8:30 EST). The 4-6 Houston Texans are in Baltimore to take on the 5-5 Ravens and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. Both teams are hungry for a win to stay in the hunt for the AFC wild card. Baltimore comes in off an impressive 23-0 win over Green Bay on the road, while Houston also comes in off a victory, breaking a three-game slide with a 31-21 win over the Cardinals at home. Tom Savage played well in Arizona last week, going 22 of 32 for 230 yards, two TD’s and a pick. Houston averages 350 YPG and allows 344.8. Baltimore ranks sith in total yards given up per game with just 306, including second in passing yards allowed with just 185.2. Last week the defense looked dominant and I think that momentum gets carried over here. Joe Flacco wasn’t flashy, but he was effecient. Expect a similar performance here as well. Additionally I’ll point out that Houston has seen the total go under the number in two of its last three on Monday Night Football, while Baltimore has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of its last nine in front of the home town crowd. This one has the feel of a “chess match,” rather than a “track meet.” Play on the under. Good luck…Larry |
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11-26-17 | Packers v. Steelers -14 | 28-31 | Loss | -108 | 126 h 57 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (8:30 EST). The 5-5 Green Bay Packers are in Pittsburgh to take on the 8-2 Steelers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Green Bay is reeling without Aaron Rodgers, coming in off a 23-0 loss at home to Baltimore. Backup QB Brett Hundley has struggled, last week he was 21 of 36 or 239 yards, no TD’s and three INT’s. Hundley has 940 yards and 2/7 TD/INT ratio since taking over for Rodgers. Rookie RB Jamaal Williams had 57 yards on 18 carries. Defensively the Packers looked decent, holding Baltimore to 219 total yards. But now Green Bay faces a Steelers unit which just exploded for a 40-17 win over Tennessee last Thursday. Ben Roethlisberger was 30 of 45 for 299 yards, four TD’s and no INT’s. The Steelers defense was tremendous, making four INT’s and allowing only 52 rushing yards. Overall Pittsburgh allows just 287 total yards per game, ranked fourth in the NFL. Note that Green Bay is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after getting blanked in its previous outing, while Pittsburgh is 2-1 ATS in its last three after scoring 40 points or more in its previous game. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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11-26-17 | Saints v. Rams -2.5 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 130 h 40 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 12 Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Rams at 4:25 ET. The 8-2 New Orleans Saints are in LA to take on the 7-3 Rams and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. New Orleans is the hottest team in the NFL and railled for a 34-31 win over Washignton last week. Suffice it to say, I’m finally expecting a letdown here from Drew Brees and company. LA will be hungry for a rebound performance here after laying a dud in last week’s 24-7 road loss in Minnesota. The Rams also play with revenge after the Saints crushed them 49-21 last year. I think New Orleans is ripe for the picking though, gassed after such a long stretch of dominance. Last week the defense conceded 456 yards to the Redskins. New Orleans’ defense is a big reason why the Saints are so improved this year, but continued regression seems imminent against this dynamic Rams offense. LA has steamrolled over almost everybody it’s faced this season, but last week it came up short against the Vikings’ amazing defense. Overall the Rams have been terrific defensively as well, allowing an average of 123 rushing yards per game. Additionally I’ll point out that New Orleans is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road dog of three points or less, while LA is 4-3 ATS as a favorite already this season and 2-1 ATS against clubs with winning records. I think there’s some room to read between the lines with the Saints’ improved defensive performance this year, as note that their last four opponents certainly haven’t been “World beaters” in the Packers (without Rodgers), the Bears, Bucs and Bills. Last week the Saints gave up 31 points to a strong offense on their home field, so things clearly won’t be any easier for them in this hostile environment. I’m banking on a blowout, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-26-17 | Jaguars -4.5 v. Cardinals | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 3 m | Show | |
My 9* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Jacksonville Jaguars (4:25 EST). The 7-3 Jacksonville Jaguars are in Arizona to take on the 4-6 Cardinals and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Jacksonville easily handled the Browns 19-7 on the road last week, while the Cards enter off a 31-21 road loss to Houston. Jags’ QB Blake Bortles was 17 of 30 for 154 yards, one TD and no INT’s. Rookie RB Leonard Fournette had 111 rushing yards on 28 carries. WR Marqise Lee had 45 yards receiving. But it was once again Jacksonville’s defense which was the difference maker, allowing Cleveland just 184 total yards of offense, while also forcing five turnovers. The Jags feature the No. 1 defense in the league, a unit which has already posted 40 sacks. Blaine Gabbert got the call for Arizona under center last week and he threw for 257 yards, three TD’s and two INT’s in place of the injured Drew Stanton. RB Adrian Peterson was a no-show for a second straight week, posting 26 rushing yards. Arizona’s defense also looked shaky, giving up 357 yards, including 134 on the ground. Additionally I’ll point out that Jacksonville is already 4-1 ATS on the road this year and 3-2 ATS against teams with losing records, while Arizona is just 1-2 ATS at home and only 1-4 ATS as an underdog. I think the Cards will have a tough time moving the ball against the Jags elite defense. Bortles hasn’t been spectacular this year, but Fournette should be able to do some damage. This line should be a lot bigger in my opinion, play on Jacksonville. Good luck…Larry |
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11-26-17 | Bucs v. Falcons -9.5 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 119 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST) The Falcons come in with a ton of momentum with consecutive victories over Dallas and Seattle. After a slow start to the 2017/18 campaign, I look for Matt Ryan and company to keep the foot on the gas again this weekend. The Bucs are reeling. Tampa is without starting QB Jameis Winston for a third straight game and it had lost five straight before winning the last two over bottom feeders New York and Miami. Tampa has turned to veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, who comes in off the 30-20 win over the Fish this last weekend, going 22 of 37 for 275 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s. But Atlanta looks poised for a big run to end the year in my opinion, getting improved play in all three phases right now: “We’re getting our swagger back,” Falcons’ receiver Julio Jones assessed. “Last year’s last year–but you can’t win games off last year and it can’t do anything for this year. We’re just trying to get it going and get an identity as the 2017 Falcons.” I’ll point out that Tampa Bay is just 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 against the NFC, while Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after scoring 30 points or more in its previous contest. This is an important stretch for Atlanta, as this is the first of three straight in front of the home town crowd. I expect Ryan to open up the playbook and I look for Fitzpatrick to stumble down the stretch. Lay the points, play on the Falcons. Good luck…Larry |
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11-25-17 | North Carolina +17 v. NC State | 21-33 | Win | 100 | 126 h 5 m | Show | |
My 8* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on North Carolina (3:30 EST). I’m expecting a much closer “Tobbacco Road” battle than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. UNC won its second straight, most recently dispatching Western Carolina 65-10 at home on Saturday. Suffice it to say, I think the Tar Heels are going to carry over that confidence and momentum here. NC State on the other hand lost for the third time in its last four games in a 30-24 road setback to Wake Forest this past weekend. Note that this is a revenge game for North Carolina after the Wolfpack won 28-21 in last year’s meeting. North Carolina averages 26.5 PPG and allows 31.1. QB Chazz Surratt has 1,342 passing yards, eight TD’s and three INT’s, while adding 40 yards and three more scores on the ground. RB Jordon Brown has 589 yards and four TD’s on the ground. NC State averages 30.4 PPG and concedes 25.1. QB Ryan Finley has 2,992 yards, 16 TD’s and five INT’s. RB Nyheim Hines has 844 yards and seven TD’s on the ground. I’ll point out though that UNC is still 9-4 ATS in its last 13 on the road, while NC State is just 8-9 ATS in its last 17 at home (including only 1-3 ATS this year.) The Tar Heels have won two straight and I think they’ll give the Wolfpack everything they can handle tonight. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-25-17 | Alabama v. Auburn +4 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 147 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE YEAR is on Auburn (8:00 EST). The 11-0 Alabama Crimson Tide are at Auburn to take on the 9-2 Tigers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Alabama is ranked No. 1 after crushing FCS Mercer 56-0 at home last weekend. Auburn also comes in off a “cream puff,” smashing UL Monroe 42-14. Alabama held Mercer to just 161 total yards in the blowout victory. In all ‘Bama would post 530 yards, including 265 on the ground. The Tide rank ninth in rushing yards per game, with 270.3 per contest, with Damien Harris leading the way with 855 thus far. Alabama continues to get the job done with smothering defensive play and a nation leading rushing attack. Auburn seemed like it was getting caught “looking ahead” to the Iron Bowl this weekend against UL Monroe last Saturday, as the Tigers went into half time with just a 14-7 lead. However, Auburn woke up in a big way in the second half, scoring a quick 21 unanswered points. QB Jarrett Stidham had 235 yards, two TD’s and an INT. Overall Auburn averages 475.9 YPG, with 231.9 on the ground. Defensively the Tigers have been dominant as well, conceding just 302.5 YPG overall, including only 118.2 on the ground (ranked 16th in the country.) And I believe Auburn’s tough run defense will prove to be a big difference maker today. I’ll point out as well that Alabama is just 1-4 ATS in its last five conference contests, while Auburn is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight in the same position. There’s no way the Tigers go down without a fight in their season finale in front of the home town crowd. I’m banking on a nail-biter, so grab the points! Good luck…Larry |
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11-25-17 | Connecticut +5.5 v. Cincinnati | 21-22 | Win | 100 | 123 h 36 m | Show | |
My 8* ODDSMAKER’S ERROR is on UConn (12:00 EST). Both teams are looking to close out miserable season’s with an elusive victory. UConn has lost four straight, most recently to Boston College. Cincinnati is also just 3-8 this year, going just 1-7 in its last eight overall. In their 38-16 loss to BC, Huskies’ QB David Pindell had 241 yards, one TD and three INT’s. It was a cold, blustery day at Fenway Park and Pindell would struggle for the most part. The Bearcats enter off a 48-20 loss to East Carolina. Cincinnati is ranked dead last in the AAC in total offense. Last week the Bearcats finished with 326 total yards of offense. Note that UConn is already 4-3 ATS against the conference this year, while Cincinnati is just 2-5 ATS in the same position. The Bearcats are 103rd in the country in total offense. Pindell and company don’t have to do too much to keep this one close and the outright win isn’t out of the question either obviously. In a contest which I foresse being decided by whichever team has the ball in its hands last, I’m grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-25-17 | Indiana v. Purdue -2.5 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 123 h 36 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Purdue (12:00 EST). Home field advantage will prove to be the difference maker today between two teams sitting at 5-6. Each side will be laying everything on the line as it tries to punch its ticket to bowl eligibility. Indiana kept is playoff hopes alive with a second straight win by smashing Rutgers 41-0 at home last Saturday, while Purdue enters off a big 24-15 road win at Iowa last Saturday. Note that this is a big time revenge game for the Boilermakers though, who have lost four straight in the series, including a 26-24 setback in the most recent matchup last November 26th. Indiana comes into the final game of the year ranked 74th in scoring offense with an average of just 27.1 PPG, while ranked 45th on the defensive side by conceding 24.8. QB Richard Lagow has 1,563 yards, 12 TD’s and seven INT’s, while Peyton Ramsey has 1,252 yards, ten TD’s and five INT’s. Purdue ranks 104th in scoring offense by averaging only 23.7 PPG, but it gets the job done most weekends with its powerful defensive play, a unit which is ranked 18th overall by conceding just 18.9 PPG. QB David Blough has 1,103 yards, nine TD’s and four INT’s. Blough’s been out for a bit though and back up Elijah Sindelar has been good in replacement, going for 1,544 yards, 12 TD’s and six iINT’s. I’ll point out that Indiana is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven following a SU win of more than 20 points, while Purdue is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 after posting less than 100 rushing yards in its previous game. I like the Boilermakers to continue their “lights out” defensive play and carry over their momentum from their impressive victory over the Hawkeyes. Indiana has struggled on the road for the most part this year and I think it looks primed for a letdown after the back-to-back victories. Lay the points, play on Purdue. Good luck…Larry |
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11-24-17 | Texas Tech +10.5 v. Texas | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 107 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* FOX-TV GAME OF THE YEAR is on Texas Tech (8:00 EST). Texas Tech has lost five of six, including a 27-3 setback to TCU on Saturday. Texas Tech will need an outright win today to move back to .500. Texas Tech has struggled offensively of late, posting 27 points or less in three of its last five games. Texas had endured an up and down season, but enters off a 28-14 win over WVU. I’m going to caution reading too much into the Longhorns defensive performance last week against the Mountaineers, as WVU starting QB Will Grier was hurt early. The Longhorns have to be feeling pretty content after finally punching their sixth win of the year last week. Texas is now bowl eligible. The Red Raiders still need one more victory before they’ll be included in any bowl game in December though, so there’s no questioning whether or not Texas Tech will be motivated today. Also note that the Red Raiders are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five as a road dog in the 7.5 to ten points range, while Texas is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU wins. Letdown spot for Texas, while Texas Tech leaves everything on the line. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-24-17 | Iowa v. Nebraska +3 | 56-14 | Loss | -100 | 103 h 52 m | Show | |
My 9* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on Nebraska (4:00 EST). Iowa will be hungry here after dropping its second straight, most recently a 24-15 setback at home to Purdue. Nebraska though can empathize, as it dropped its third straight and fifth in it last six in a 56-44 shootout loss to Penn State on the road last week. Note that the Huskers play with revenge here, as Iowa has taken the last two in the series, most recently a 40-10 home victory last November 25th. After upsetting Ohio State, Iowa has fallen flat in back-to-back outings, moving to just 3-5 in Big Ten play. The Hawkeyes are ranked 87th in the nation in scoring with 25.8 PPG, while ranked 26th defensively in conceding 20.5. QB Nathan Stanley has 2,146 yards, 23 TD’s and six INT’s. Nebraska is ranked 76th in scoring offense with 26.8 PPG, while ranked 106th in scoring defense by allowing 34.8. QB Tanner Lee has 2,938 passing yards, 21 TD’s and 13 INT’s. I’ll point out though that Iowa is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven off a loss against a conference rival (including only 1-2 ATS this season), while Nebraska is 4-1 ATS in its last five after two or more consecutive SU losses and 6-5 ATS in its last 11 off a loss against a conference rival. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points. Play on Nebraska. Good luck…Larry |
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11-24-17 | New Mexico +20 v. San Diego State | 10-35 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 28 m | Show | |
My 8* ODDSMAKER’S ERROR is on New Mexico (3:30 EST). The 3-8 New Mexico Lobos are in SDSU to take on the 9-2 Aztecs on Friday afternoon and while I’m not calling for an outright upset, I do definitely expect the visitors to keep this on a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. New Mexico has lost six straight, but it looked competitive in last week’s 38-35 loss to UNLV. SDSU is in a dog fight to the end and most recently beat Nevada 42-23. The Lobos went toe-to-toe with red hot UNLV QB Armani Rogers, but in the end it wasn’t to be. However, I absolutely believe New Mexico will bring that same intensity over into the season finale. Aztecs’ RB Rashaad Penny had a monster game last weekend, exploding for 429 all purpose yards. It was an amazing day, but I have a hard time seeing Penny duplicating such massive efforts on back-to-back weeks. I’ll point out as well that New Mexico is 6-4 ATS in its last ten off a loss against a conference rival and 4-2 ATS in its last six as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points, while SDSU is just 2-4 ATS at home this year. I think SDSU goes up early and takes the foot off the gas late, allowing the hungry Lobos to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-24-17 | Baylor +24 v. TCU | 22-45 | Win | 100 | 99 h 54 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Baylor (12:00 EST). Baylor is just 1-10 on the year. The Bears beat Kansas, but they’ve since dropped back to back games to Texas Tech and then to Iowa State. TCU is 9-2 after destroying Texas Tech this past weekend. The Bears were competitive in a 23-13 loss to Iowa State Saturday and they’ll look to play spoiler to a TCU team which must win today to lock up its spot in the conference championship against Oklahoma. TCU beat Texas Tech 27-3 last weekend, but freshman QB Shawn Robison (filling in for Kenny Hill), wasn’t overly spectacular, finishing with 85 yards, one TD and zero INT’s. Hill is probable for this one, but one has to wonder if he’ll really be at 100% at this point? I’ll point out as well that Baylor is 10-6 ATS in its last 16 against teams with winning records, while TCU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a favorite in the 21.5 to 31 points range. I think the pressure gets to TCU this weekend and Iook for the the Bears to keep this one competitive unitl the final quarter. Grab the points. Good luck….Larry |
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11-23-17 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State UNDER 62.5 | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 75 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* Total Oddsmaker’s Error is on the under Ole Miss/Mississippi State (7:30 EST). The 5-6 Ole Miss Runnin Rebels are at Mississippi State to take on the 8-3 Bulldogs and for a number of different reasons, I think this one will sneak below the posted number once it’s all said and done. The Rebels enter off a 28-24 home loss to Texas A&M, while the Bulldogs beat Arkansas 28-21. When these teams played last year it was Mississippi State which scored the 55-20 victory. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a much more defensive battle tonight. Mississippi scored 24 points in the first half against the Aggies last week, but it was then shutout in the second. QB Jordan Ta’amu had 189 yards, two TD’s and an INT. Ta’amu has been decent in a backup role with a 9/3 TD/INT ratio. RB Jordan Wilkins was a bright spot in the setback with 147 yards on 19 carries. Ole Miss needs just one more victory to reach the six-win plateau, but a self imposed “bowl ban” makes the mark pointless. The Bulldogs looked stout defensively last week, holding Arkansas to just 221 total yards and a 3 for 11 record on third down attempts. I’ll point out that Ole Miss has seen the total go under the number in three of its last four road games when the total is set between 56.5 and 63 points, while Mississippi State has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of six as a favorite this season and in four of five in front of the home town crowd. I expect a battle and for this one to sneak under the number once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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11-23-17 | Chargers v. Cowboys | Top | 28-6 | Win | 100 | 72 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the LA Chargers (4:30 EST). The 4-6 LA Chargers are in Dallas to take on the 5-5 Cowboys and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. LA comes in having won four of its last six, most recently smashing the Bills. Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers had 251 yards and two TD’s in that one. Rivers has been dominant this year with 2,514 yards, 17 TD’s and seven INT’s. Melvin Gordon keeps defenses honest, so far posting 633 yards and five TD’s on the ground. The Cowboys though are reeling. After winning three in a row, Dallas has now dropped two straight to Atlanta and Philadelphia respectively. Dak Prescott looked terrible in his last outing, throwing for 145 yards and three INT’s. Prescott has 16 TD’s and seven INT’s thus far, but he’s going to struggle again without RB Ezekiel Elliot in the lineup. I’ll point out as well that LA is 94-68 ATS in road games when playing with six or less days of rest since 1992, while Dallas is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after its QB failed to register 150 passing yards in its previous outing. Without Elliot playing, Dallas is very one dimensional. The Cowboys have averaged only 16 points over their last two games. That’s not going to cut it against a red hot Rivers and company. Play on the Chargers. Good luck…Larry |
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11-23-17 | Vikings v. Lions +2.5 | 30-23 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 52 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Detroit Lions (12:30 EST). The 8-2 Minnesota Vikings are in Detroit on Thanksgiving to take on the 6-4 Lions and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Minnesota comes in off a 24-7 win over the Rams in its latest action, its sixth win in a row. Detroit enters off a tougher than expected 27-24 road win at Chicago, its third straight victory. If recent history is any precedence though, then Detroit has to be loving its chances, because when these teams played on October 1st, it was the Lions that scored the 14-7 upset victory. Minnesota’s Case Keenum was 27 of 38 for 280 yards and a score last week. Overall the Vikes held the Rams to just 45 rushing yards on 17 attempts. Minnesota enters this game ranked second defensively, conceding just 17.2 PPG. Lions’ QB Matt Stafford had 299 yards and two TD’s last week, but Detroit posted just 66 rushing yards. Detroit has struggled with the run this year, ranked 28th, while been dominant in the passing game, ranked sixth. Ultimately I think the short week favors the home side. Minnesota has been playing incredible defense, but I believe the unit finally comes in “gassed.” Expect Stafford to air this one out early and often and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Lions. Good luck…Larry |
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11-21-17 | Miami-OH v. Ball State +18 | Top | 28-7 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Ball State (7:00 EST). The 4-7 Miami Ohio Redhawks are at Ball State to take on the 2-9 Cardinals on Tuesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Ball State comes in off a 40-24 loss at home to Buffalo last Thursday, while the Redhawks fell 27-24 at home to EMU on Wednesday, putting the final nail in the coffin for Miami Ohio’s bowl hopes. The Redhawks hurt themselves with two turnovers last week. Gus Ragland was 22 of 32 for 251 yards and a TD. Miami Ohio will finish ranked 71st in total offense and 38th in total defense. The Cardinals’ Jack Milas had 127 yards and two TD’s last week, while Caleb Huntley added 141 yards on 26 carries. Ball State is ranked 118th overall on offense and 100th on the defensive side. Miami Ohio is the better team, but it comes off the deflating, season ending loss just last week. Ball State has been out of it for a while but won’t be lacking for motivation in its final home game of the year (also note that the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six in this series.) For all the reasons listed above, play on Ball State. Good luck…Larry |
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11-20-17 | Falcons v. Seahawks UNDER 45.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* O/U SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the under Falcons/Seahawks (8:30 EST). The 5-4 Atlanta Falcons are in Seattle to take on the 6-3 Seahawks in an important NFC battle on Monday night and in my opinion, all signs point to a lower-scoring “chess match.” Both teams come in off victories, but each has suffered recent signficant injuries. The Hawks lost Kam Chancellor, while the Falcons lost RB Devonta Freeman in their 27-7 home win over the Cowboys last weekend. Atlanta’s defense looked sharp last week, albeit against a depleted Dallas offense. sacking Dak Prescott eight times. DE Adrian Clayborn had six sacks, while the Cowboys were limited to just 126 passig yards and 107 on the ground overall. Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan’s pedestrian season continues, coming into this one with a 13/8 TD/INT ratio and a 93.9 QB rating. Seahawks’ QB Russell Wilson was 22 of 32 for 238 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s in his team’s Thursday night win over Arizona. Seattle’s defense has taken a hit because of injury, but note that the team has still seen the total go under the number in all six games it’s played this year against the conference and four of six already this season when playing the role of favorite. And note that Atlanta has seen the total dip below the posted number in in all four games that it’s played in this year against clubs with winning records. It’s going to be cold, blustery and likely raining hard in the Great Pacific Northwest on Monday night. All signs point to field position being paramount in the final outcome. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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11-19-17 | Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 49 | 37-9 | Win | 100 | 79 h 19 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U Weekend Wipeout Winner under Eagles/Cowboys (8:30 EST). Philadelphia won its seventh straight in its 51-23 demolition of the Broncos on November 4th. The team then had its bye last week. Dallas had its three-game win streak snapped in a 27-7 loss on the road in Atlanta last Sunday. The Eagles are so far second in the league in scoring by averaging 31.4 PPG, while ranked tenth on the defensive side by conceding 19.9. QB Carson Wentz has 2,262 yards, 23 TD’s and five INT’s thus far. Philadelphia has a dynamic run game which is led by LeGarrette Blount, who has 504 yards and two TD’s thus far. Dallas comes in ranked eighth in the league in scoring with an average of 25.9 PPG, while ranked 17th on the defensive side by conceding 22.8. QB Dak Prescott has 1,994 yards, 16 TD’s and four INT’s thus far. This is clearly a big game for Dallas, which would fall even further behind the Eagles in the divisoin race with a loss. Look for the home side to try and control the pace of this one while on offense as much as possible, so as to limit the time Wentz and company are on the field of play. I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia has seen the total go under the number in 13 of its last 23 when playing the role of favorite, while Dallas has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of its last five home games when the total in the contest is set between 45.5 and 49 points. The Cowboys’ offense has struggled without RB Ezekiel Elliot in the lineup and things aren’t going to get any easier tonight. I look for these divisional foes to battle tough and for this total to ultimately fall below the number once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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11-19-17 | Bills v. Chargers -4 | 24-54 | Win | 100 | 75 h 5 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Chargers (4:05 EST). The Bills were destroyed 47-10 at home to New Orleans last weekend, a beatdown so bad that the team has benched QB Tyrod Taylor in favor of backup Nate Peterman moving forward. Peterman was 7 of ten for 79 yards and a TD last week. Buffalo comes in ranked 28th in the league in total offense with just 292 YPG and 19th in scoring with 20.4 PPG, while the defense has been middle-of-the-pack, allowing 21.8, ranked 15th. The Chargers rank 23rd in scoring with 18.6 PPG, while ranked ninth on the defensive side by conceding just 19.1 PPG. LA comes into this one with four losses of three points or fewer (after having five losses of four points or fewer last season.) The Chargers’ run game has been a weak point, but the Bills have been gouged for 492 yards on the ground over the last two weeks combined. Last week LA QB Philip Rivers was 21 of 37 for 235 yards, two TD’s and an INT. I’ll point out that the Bills are just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 following a double-digit loss at home, while the Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last six in this series in front of the home town crowd. If Melvin Gordon is going to have a break out performance, then this is the team to have it against. Rivers is going to have plenty of opportunities as well against this Bills team which is once again searching for an identity in all three phases. Lay the points with confidence as the Bolts lay down the hammer at home. Good luck…Larry |
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11-19-17 | Lions v. Bears +3 | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 72 h 1 m | Show | |
My 8* ODDSMAKER’S ERROR is on the Chicago Bears (1:00 EST). The 5-4 Detroit Lions are in Chicago to take on the 3-6 Bears and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Detroit comes in off a 38-14 win over Cleveland, while Chicago dropped a tough 23-16 decision at home to Green Bay. These teams split a pair of games last year, each being decided by a single field goal. Detroit QB Matt Stafford has a 17/5 TD/INT ratio this year. Last weekend RB Ameer Abdullah had 52 yards on the ground, part of 104 total for the Lions. Stafford had 249 yards, three TD’s and an INT. The Lions looked poor defensively though, conceding 413 yards, including 201 on the ground. Chicago allowed 342 total yards to the Packers last week. QB Mitchell Trubisky was 21 of 35 for 297 yards, a TD and no INT’s. Trubisky looked more comfortable last week and I expect that progression to once again get carried over here. RB Jeremy Howard had 54 yards on 15 carries. The strength of the Bears’ defense is against the pass, which is also in Chicago’s favor facing the Lions’ pass-centric offense. I’ll point out as well that Detroit is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU wins, while Chicago is 6-3 ATS in its last nine off a loss against a division rival. I’m expecting a nail-biter. Grab the points, play on the Bears. Good luck…Larry |
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11-19-17 | Rams +2.5 v. Vikings | 7-24 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 1 m | Show | |
My 9* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the LA Rams (1:00 EST). The Vikes have now won five in a row, coming out of their bye and getting the better of the Redskins last week. LA also comes in on top form, with wins over the Jags, Cards, Giants and Texans. Last week the Rams posted the 33-7 victory over Houston. Jared Goff and Todd Gurley lead a dynamic offense, while the LA defense has been better than orginally advertised. Minnesota has Case Keenum under center now and he so far has 11 TD’s and five INT’s. Keenum has thrown at least one INT in four straight games and he had two in last week’s 38-30 win over Washington. I’ll point out that LA is already 3-1 ATS on the road this year and 7-4 ATS in its last 11 “dome” games, while Minnesota is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after scoring 35 points or more in its previous contest. Ultimately I think that LA’s depth on the offensive side of the ball will win the day over the Vikes league leading defensive unit. Grab the points, play on the Rams. Good luck…Larry |
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11-19-17 | Ravens v. Packers +2 | Top | 23-0 | Loss | -110 | 126 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Week 11 Las Vegas Insider GOY is on the GB Packers at 1:00 ET. The 4-5 Baltimore Ravens are in Green Bay to take on the 5-4 Packers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Baltimore last played on November 5th in Tennessee and lost to the Titans 23-20. Green Bay comes in with momentum with Brett Hundley under center, coming off an upset 23-16 victory at Chicago last Sunday. In the Ravens latest loss, QB Joe Flacco had 261 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s. The run game posted just 73 yards on 22 carries. Overall Baltimore is ranked 30th in total offense by averaging 286.6 YPG, while ranked in the middle of the pack defensively, allowing 184.7 YPG through the air and 125.9 on the ground. Green Bay ranks 23rd in total offense with an average of 313.7 YPG, while ranked 24th in total defense by conceding 353.6. Hundley though has started to find his groove and will benefit today from playing in front of the home town crowd. I’ll point out as well that Baltimore is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine non-conference games (including 0-2 ATS this year) and just 7-12 ATS in its last 19 when playing the role of favorite, while Green Bay is 8-1 ATS in its last nine off a win against a division rival and 9-6 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog. The Ravens were in “free fall” before their bye and I don’t think the extra time off is going to help their issues. Hundley meanwhile has gotten progressively better with each start and I look for that trend to continue on Sunday afternoon. Play on Green Bay. Good luck…Larry |
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11-18-17 | Connecticut v. Boston College -21.5 | Top | 16-39 | Win | 100 | 76 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Boston College (7:00 EST). The Eagles had their three-game win streak snapped in a tight 17-14 setack at home to NC State last Saturday, while UConn enters off a third straight setback, getting spanked 49-24 at No. 12 UCF last Saturday. If recent history is any precedence, then the Eagles have to be liking their chances today as they have in fact won the last five in this series, including a 30-0 victory at home last November 19th. BC needs just one more win to become bowl eligible, so it won’t be leaving anything to chance this evening. The Eagles average 23.3 PPG and concede 24. QB Anthony Brown has 1,367 yards, 11 TD’s and nine INT’s, while RB Jon Hillman has 441 yards and three scores as well. The Huskies average 24.8 PPG and concede 39.4 QB Bryant Shirreffs has 2,287 passing yards, 14 TD’s and five INT’s. I’ll point out though that BC is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five after allowing less than 20 points in its previous contest, while UConn is a poor 5-22-2 ATS in its last 29 non-conference contests. BC is good defensively and it won’t be lacking for motivation tonight. I’m expecting another rout from start to finish. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-18-17 | Illinois +41 v. Ohio State | 14-52 | Win | 100 | 72 h 20 m | Show | |
My 9* LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on Illinois (3:30 EST). The 2-8 Fighting Illini are in Ohio to take the 8-2 Buckeyes and while I’m obviously not expecting an upset today, I do definitely feel this is a few too many points to be giving up. The Illini come in off a 24-14 loss to Indiana, while Ohio State bounced back from a setback to Iowa to smash Michigan State 48-3 at home. Note that when these teams played last year, not surprisingly it was Ohio State which scored the 28-3 victory. Illinois QB Jeff George Jr. has 1,273 passing yards, seven TD’s and ten INT’s. Last week he went for 261 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s. Ohio State QB JT Barrett looked a lot better last week, but he still threw two INT’s. Barrett has 2,564 passing yards and 30 TD’s this year. I’ll point out though that Illinois is 2-0 ATS in its last two as an underdog of 31 points or more, while Ohio State is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven as a favorite of 31 points or more. I think this line is an over-reaction to last week’s annihilation of the Spartans. Clearly the Buckeyes are the better team, but Illinois has been competitve in most games this year and it’s defense is a strong point. Grab the points, play on the Illini. Good luck…Larry |
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11-18-17 | Kentucky +21.5 v. Georgia | 13-42 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 9 m | Show | |
My 8* ODDSMAKER’S ERROR is on Kentucky (3:30 EST). The 7-3 Kentucky Wildcats are at No. 7 Georgia to take on the 9-1 Bulldogs on Saturday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Georgia was crushed 40-17 by Auburn last week and I think it’ll have a predictable letdown here. Kentucky enters with a ton of momentum, posting the 44-21 road win over Vanderbilt last Saturday. Note that this is a revenge game for the Wildcats as well after Georgia edged Kentucky 27-24 on the road last year. Last week Kentucky posted 427 total yards and forced four INTS’s and held the Commodores to just 60 yards rushing on 20 carries. Wildcats’ QB Stephen Johnson was 13 of 17 for 195 yards and was complimented by RB Ben Snell Jr. who has 116 yards and three TD’s. Note that Kentucky has been exceptional against the run this year, holding opponents to just 121.9 YPG thus far. Georgia RB Nick Chubb was held to 27 yards on 11 carries last week. QB Jake From was 13 of 28 for 184 yards and one meaningless TD at the end of the game. I’ll point out that Kentucky is 2-0 ATS in its last two as a road dog of 21.5 points or more, while Georgia is 0-3 ATS in its last three as a favorite in the 21.5 to 31 points range. I like the Wildcats to take advantage of a Bulldogs team still dwelling on last week’s loss and while I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do absolutely expect this one to be a lot closer than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. Grab the points, play on Kentucky. Good luck…Larry |
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11-18-17 | Iowa State v. Baylor +9.5 | 23-13 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 10 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Baylor (2:30 EST). Iowa State became bowl eligible and has since dropped two straight. The Cyclones will look to get back on track here, but I think that the home side offers great value in an upset role. The Cyclones are now also officially out of contention for the Big 12 title after falling to Oklahoma State last weekend. Can anyone say “letdown spot?!” Iowa State QB Kyle Kempt left at halftime with an injury last week, forcing Zeb Noland into action and while the backup looked good in the 49-42 defeat in his limited time, starting on the road even at lowly Baylor is a tall order and a quick turnaround. After beating Kansas, the Bears fell 38-24 to Texas Tech last Saturday. QB Charlie Brewer was 43 of 63 for 417 yards, three TD’s and one INT. I like Brewer to carry over his momentum here in front of the home town crowd. Note that Iowa State is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten on field turf, while Baylor is 8-5 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog. The Bears are terrible, but Brewer has been a bright spot. I like the gun-slinger to keep his team in this one late, so grab as many points as you can. Good luck…Larry |
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11-18-17 | Virginia +19 v. Miami-FL | 28-44 | Win | 100 | 69 h 41 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on Virgnia (12:00 EST). Virginia is bowl eligible already, but it comes off its third loss in its last four games, falling 38-21 at Louisville last weekend. Miami can now feel the pressure as it’s still unbeaten after steamrolling Notre Dame 41-8 last week. Note that this is a revenge game for Virginia as well, as Miami has taken the last two, including 34-14 on the road on November 12, 2016. The Cavs rank 47th in the country in passing offense with an average of 251.8 YPG. Overall the team ranks 85th in scoring with 25.8 PPG, while ranked 67th on the defensive side by conceding 26.6 points. QB Kurt Benkert has 2,492 yards, 21 TD’s and just seven INT’s. RB Olamide Zaccheaus has caught 70 passes for 727 yards, four TD’s and had added 22 carries for 153 yards and another score on the ground. Miami averages 32.6 PPG, while conceding just 16.6. QB Malik Rosier has 2,410 yards, 20 TD’s and seven INT’s. RB Travis Homer has 758 yards and six scores on the ground. I’ll point out though that Virginia is 3-1 ATS this year against teams with winning records and 16-9 ATS in its last 25 when playing the role of underdog. I think the Hurricanes manage the win, but I like Virginia to keep this one much more interesting than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-17-17 | UNLV +2 v. New Mexico | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 111 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* NON-CONF GAME OF THE YEAR is on UNLV (9:30 EST). UNLV will need to win its final two games of the year to become bowl eligible. With a date against 2-8 Nevada next weekend, the Runnin’ Rebels have a very real shot at actually reaching the six win plateau with a big effort today. New Mexico needed to win last week to keep its bowl hopes alive, but it instead got annihilated 55-14 by Texas A&M. With nothing left to play for, we expect the Lobos to come in disinterested and flat-footed this week. The Rebels average 29.2 PPG and allow 32.3. QB Armani Rodgers has 1,100 yards, five TD’s and five INT’s, while also adding 538 yards on the ground and another sixscores. Johnny Stanton has 724 yards passing, four TD’s and two INT’s threw the air and 96 yards plus two major scores on the ground. The Lobos average 22.3 PPG and concede 30.9 QB Lamar Jordan has 593 yards passing along with three TD’s and five INT’s. I’ll point out though that the Runnin Rebels are 4-0 ATS in their last four following an ATS loss, while the Lobos are 0-4 ATS in their last four after posting less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. I like the “hungrier” team to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on UNLV. Good luck…Larry |
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11-16-17 | Titans v. Steelers -7 | Top | 17-40 | Win | 100 | 56 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the PIttsburgh Steelers (8:25 EST). The 6-3 Tennessee Titans are in Pittsburgh to take on the 7-2 Steelers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. It wasn’t pretty, but the Steelers battled tough and scored the 20-17 win in Indianpolis last weekend, while the Titans also rallied to post the 24-20 win at home over the Bengals. Both teams are on fire, but I don’t think that the home field advantage factor can be overlooked in this case. Both teams come in off victories, but neither looked overly impressive. Each will be looking for a bounce back performance, but the trends support the home side in this spot, as note that Tennessee is a poor 1-4 ATS in its last eight after two or more consecutive SU victories (including 0-2 already this year) and just 6-14 ATS in its last 20 on the road (including only 1-3 ATS this season), while Pittsburgh is 11-6 ATS its last 17 at home (including 2-1 ATS this year) and 9-6 ATS in its last 15 against teams with winning records (including 2-0 ATS this season.) Tennessee has been great in stopping the run, ranked seventh, but horrible against the pass, ranked 28th. And that doesn’t bode well facing big Ben Roethlisberger, who will be out to atone for last week’s near disaster. The Pittsburgh defense though has been superb, ranked second in the NFL in overall yards given up per game (284.4) The Steelers’ defense has been remarkable of late, allowing 20 or less points in four straight games. I think the Titans have a letdown on the short week in this tough atmosphere and I look for the veteran Roethlisberger to take full advantage. Lay the points, play on the Steelers. Good luck…Larry |
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11-16-17 | Buffalo v. Ball State +17.5 | Top | 40-24 | Win | 100 | 84 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Ball State (7:00 EST). Buffalo will need to win its final two games to become bowl eligible. A date against the lowly 2-8 Ball State Cardinals is just what the doctor ordered this week. However with a date against 8-2 Ohio in the season finale, the Bulls’ chances of actually reaching the six win plateau this year are extremely small. The Bobcats will be fighting until the final whistle as they try to capture the league crown. With that sad fact already in the front of their brains, I do think that the Bulls are set up for a small letdown this weekend. Buffalo averages 27.3 PPG and concedes 25 PPG. QB Tyree Jackson has 1,452 yards, six TD’s and two INT’s, while also adding another 220 on the ground and four more major scores. Ball State averages 18.4 PPG and concedes 42. QB Riley Neal has 658 yards, six TD’s and three INT’s, while also rushing for another 67. Caleb Huntley has been a strong in the ground attack with 703 yards and three TD’s. I’ll point out though that Buffalo has struggled in this spot for bettors for a while now, going just 2-4 ATS n its last six off a win against a conference rival. And note, as horrible as Ball State has been, it’s actually 2-1 ATS in its last three as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range. I like the home side to keep this one interesting. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-15-17 | Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois -9.5 | Top | 31-35 | Loss | -115 | 60 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH is on Northern Illinois (7:00 EST). Northern Illinois is now 7-3 after last week’s 63-17 annihilation of Ball State. The Huskies sit just a game back of Toledo in the West Division of the MAC and they’re tied with the Rockets at 5-1 in Conference play. Western Michigan on the other hand looks primed for an immediate letdown in my opinion after posting its sixth win of the year in last week’s 48-20 win over Kent. Note that this is a revenge game for Northern Illinois as well after WMU took this game at home 45-30 last season. The Broncos average 36.6 points and concede 27.6. Jarvion Franklin has 1,061 rushing yards and ten TD’s this year and had 191 yards and a major score against the Golden Flashes last week. WMU is one of the best rushing teams in the nation, but that unfortunately plays right into the strength of the Huskies defense, which is tenth against the run in the nation. Northern Illinois averages 30.3 PPG, while conceding just 18.8 PPG on the defensive side. I’ll point out as well that WMU is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after scoring 40 points or more in its previous contest, while Northern Illinois is 13-5-2 ATS in its last 20 following a SU win over more than 20 points. The Broncos are going back to a bowl, which is mission accomplished for a team which lost a lot from last year’s squad that went undefeated until its bowl game. I like the Huskies to put the foot on the gas from start to finish and I expect WMU to throw in the white towel early. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-14-17 | Ohio v. Akron +13 | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on Akron (7:00 EST). The 8-2 Ohio Bobcats are in Akron to take on the 5-5 Zips and while I’ll stop short in calling for an outright upset, I do definitely feel that the desperate home side will keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Ohio comes in off a 38-10 win over Toledo, while Akron lost 24-14 to Miami Ohio. Last year these two teams played to a very tight decision, with the Bobcats holding on for the eventual 9-3 victory from Ohio. Bobcats’ QB Nathan Rourke was just seven of 15 for 139 yards, a TD and a pick last week, but he did add 115 yards rushing. In all Ohio racked up 393 rushing yards last week. Akron will be out to atone for it’s effort last Saturday, producing just 273 total yards of offense against the Redhawks. QB Kato Nelson was 19 of 38 for 218 yards and a TD. I’ll point out though that Ohio is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a road favorite in the 10.5 to 14 points range, while Akron is 2-1 ATS this year against teams with winning records. The Zips are running out of chances and need one more win to become bowl eligible. Akron won’t be lacking in motivation today. Ohio has two cream puffs to end the season, with a date at Buffalo next weekend, so it could be caught looking ahead as well. Outright upset? Probably not. But all signs point to this one being decided late. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-13-17 | Dolphins v. Panthers OVER 38 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 33 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the over Dolphins/Panthers (8:30 EST). The 4-4 Miami Dolphins are in Carolina to take on the 6-3 Panthers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one have offensive shootout written all over it. Both teams are hungry for wins. Miami is coming off consecutive losses, losing 40-0 in Baltimore, before starting QB Jay Cutler returned to go 32 of 42 for 311 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s in a setback to Oakland last weekend. The defense looked decent, giving up 295 passing yards and just 84 rushing yards. Caroilna QB Cam Netwon was just 13 of 24 for 137 yards and no TD’s. He did run for 86 though and scored his first rushing TD of the year. I’ll point out that Miami has seen the total go over the number in six of its last nine games played on a grass field, while Carolina has seen the total eclipse the posted number in nine of its last 13 off a divisional contest and in 12 of its last 18 after two or more consecutive SU victories. With nothing to lose (except another game), I like Cutler and company to open up the playbook and air this one from start to finish. Carolina is on a roll and with numerous tough upcoming road games on the horizon, this is one contest the Panthers can’t afford to “look past.” I’m banking on this total sailing above this low number as the game comes down the stretch. Good luck…Larry |