Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-22-19 | Mets v. Cubs -138 | 10-2 | Loss | -138 | 4 h 24 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Chi Cubs at 2:20 ET. New York's Jeff McNeil had a two-run HR and the go-ahead RBI single in Friday's 5-4 win over the Chicago Cubs. He is 9-for-18 with two HRs, four RBI and six runs scored during a four-game hitting streak that has pushed his batting average to .341. The Cubs beat the Mets 7-4 in Thursday's opener of the four-game series but Addison Russell's two-run HR was not enough fo Chicago last night. The 41-34 Cubs had won EIGHT of their previous 10 at Wrigley Field but remain 1 1/2 games up on the Brewwrs in the NL Central, while the Cards lurk two games back. The 36-40 Mets find themselves fourth in the NL East, eight games out of first-place Zack Wheeler (5-5, 4.94 ERA) takes the mound for the Mets and Jose Quintana (4-6, 3.87 ERA) for the Cubs. Wheeler seemed to be finding his 'sea legs' in a four-start stretch from May 21 to June 6, in which he lasted at least seven innings in each outing, going 2-0 (team was 4-0) with a 4.13 ERA. However, he's lost his last two starts, allowing 20 hits and nine ERs over 10.2 innings for a 7.59 ERA. Wheeler is 1-1 with a 5.14 ERA in four career starts against the Cubs The left-handed Quintana has not earned a win in any of his last EIGHT starts. He is 0-5 with a 4.30 ERA since earning the victory against the St Louis Cardinals back on May 5 (team is just 1-7 ). However, let me note that after allowing EIGHT runs in his first start of 2019, Quintana has allowed three ERs or less in 12 of his last 13 starts. He deserves better. Also, he's 2-1 with a 1.35 ERA in three starts against the Mets. The Cubs are 26-13 (67%) at home on the season (outscoring opponents 4.85-to-3.53 RPG), including going 22-11 (again, 67%) against right-handed starters. The Mets are a poor road team (16-26) but a closer look reveals that after a 7-1 start away from Citi Field, they are 9-25 since (that's a 74% "go-against"). Cubs win! Cubs win! Good luck...Larry |
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06-21-19 | Reds v. Brewers -123 | Top | 11-7 | Loss | -123 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (NL Central) is on the Mil Brewers at 8:10 ET. The Brewers returned to Milwaukee off a 2-6 road trip on Thursday and lost 7-1 to Cincinnati in the opening contest of a 10-game homestand. Christian Yelich is the reigning National League MVP and he can hardly be blamed for Milwaukee's woes, as he homered for the Brewers' lone run last night and has seven HRs, 14 RBI and 15 runs scored during his 17-game hitting streak (Yelich has a majors-best 28 HRs). Thursday's victory gave the Reds a season-high FIVE-game winning streak, the first time the team has accomplished that since June of last year). Sonny Gray (3-5, 3.77 ERA) will take the mound for the Reds and Chase Anderson (3-1, 4.05 ERA) for the Brewers. Gray was outstanding in his last start at Miller Park (May 21), as he scattered five hits and struck out nine over six innings of a 3-0 victory. The 29-year-old will enter this game 3-0 over his last six starts (3.31 ERA), with Cincy going 5-1. Anderson recorded his second straight no-decision last Sunday, allowing three runs and four walks over four innings against San Francisco. That outing leaves him 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA in three June starts but the Brewers have won BOTH of his no-decisions (4.50 ERA). Gray began his career with Oakland but pitched for the Yankees for part of the 2017 season and all of 2018. Gray won 14 games in both 2014 and 2015 but he has since been a HUGE disappointment. He went 15-16 (4.51 ERA) in his one-plus seasons with the Yankees and was traded to Cincinnati on Jan 21. He has pitched well his last six outings but the Reds are just 7-7 in his 14 starts in 2019. Gray will face a Milwaukee team averaging 5.03 RPG at Miller Park and his Cincy team ranks 26th in team BA (.234), 24th in OPS (.715) and 23rd in scoring (4.29) RPG). The Reds did get seven runs last night against a right-handed starter but the Reds entered last night's contest just 10-16 vs righties on the road in 2019, averaging only 3.6 RPG. Anderson owns a 3.23 ERA in 11 career starts vs Cincinnati, going 5-2 while allowing only 46 hits in 58 innings. Cincy's five-game winning streak ends right here! Good luck...Larry |
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06-20-19 | Marlins v. Cardinals -184 | 7-6 | Loss | -184 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
My 7* Situational Stunner is on the StL Cards at 7:15 ET. It's been an interesting series between the Marlins and Cardinals. St Louis won 5-0 on Monday, Miami won 6-0 on Tuesday and then St Louis won 2-1 in 11 innings last night. Both offenses have been feeble. Miami has been shut out 13 times this year and scored just one run in 11 innings on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have scored just TWO runs in their last 20 innings, including a walk-off HR by Paul Goldschmidt to beat Miami on Wednesday.The 38-35 Cards enter Thursday's contest with SEVEN wins in their last 10 contests and they currently sit just TWO games back in the NL Central. As for the 26-46 Marlins, they own the NL's worst record. Miami opened the month with FOUR straight wins from June 1 through June 5 but have now lost 10 of its last 13 games. The pitching matchup provides a stark contrast. Zac Gallen will be making his first major-league start for the Marlins, while veteran Adam Wainwright (5-6, 4.46 ERA) takes the mound for the Cardinals to make his 299th career start. Gallen begins his major-league career against the team that selected him in the third round of the 2016 draft before trading him in the deal involving Marcell Ozuna in December 2017 (he was one of four prospects the Marlins received when they traded for St Louis outfielder Marcell Ozuna). Gallen was 8-9 with a 3.65 ERA in 25 appearances with Triple-A New Orleans in 2018 but he's posted a 9-1 record and 1.77 ERA in 14 starts with New Orleans this year with 112 strikeouts in 91.1 innings. Gallen is getting his chance here, because starting pitcher Pablo Lopez was placed on the injured list due a strained pitching shoulder. Retirement rumors surrounded Wainwright after the 37-year-old was limited to eight starts which totaled just 40.1 innings last season. Wainwright is a the three-time All-Star and has finished in the top three in Cy Young Award voting four times. However, Wainwright has added pitches to his repertoire, as he tries to transition from a power pitcher to a more finesse approach. Wainwright returns to the rotation after missing 11 days with a hamstring injury. The vet has been mostly healthy this season (he's made 13 starts) and a closer look revels that he's really struggled on the road (1-5 with a 6.56 ERA in seven starts) but here at home, he's 4-1 with a 2.31 ERA in six starts. This will be the first time Wainwright has faced the 2019 Marlins but over his career he is 6-2 with a 2.95 ERA in 12 appearances, including 10 starts (Cards are 8-2) vs Miami. A pitcher's major-league debut is always a 'crap-shoot' but what we do know is that Gallen will face a St Louis team looking to claim a THIRD straight series and one which has gotten back in the thick on things in the NL Central (Cubs, Brewers and Cards are all within two games of each other). Meanwhile, Gallen takes the mound for a team that ranks dead-last in all of MLB in scoring (3.43 RPG), OPS (.642) and HRs (53), while ranking 25th in team BA (.236). Take the vet over the 'rook.' Good luck...Larry |
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06-19-19 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -140 | 6-4 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
My 7* Las Vegas Insider on the Arz D'backs at 9:40 ET. The Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres combined for the highest-scoring four-game series in modern history over the weekend (92 total runs) and the Rockies showed no signs of slowing down in Tuesday's 8-1 victory at Arizona. Leadoff hitter Charlie Blackmon extended his on-base streak to 28 consecutive games with three hits last night, while Nolan Arenado homered and drove in three runs. Blackmon is the reigning NL Player of the Week, going 18-for-29 with four HRs, 10 RBI and 11 runs scored over his last five games. The Colorado victory moved the 38-34 Rockies moved into second place in the NL West, a game ahead of 38-36 Arizona. The Diamondbacks are 24-19 on the road but just 14-17 at Chase Field. The starting pitching matchup for Wednesday's game is Jon Gray (6-5, 4.38 ERA) for Colorado and Zack Greinke (8-2, 2.65 ERA) for Arizona. Gray got the win last Thursday against the Padres, after allowing four runs with 10 strikeouts over six innings, as Colorado won, 9-6. Gray takes the mound tonight, coming off his first career relief appearance after 103 career starts. Sunday was Gray's scheduled bullpen day but he entered with two outs and a runner on third in the ninth with the Rockies and Padres tied at 13. He intentionally walked the next two batters to load the bases and walked pinch hitter Matt Strahm (a pitcher!) to bring in the go-ahead run, as San Diego won 14-13! Gray is 2-4 with a 5.80 ERA in nine career starts vs Arizona (Rockies are 5-4). Greinke had an extra day of rest after exiting his previous start with a sore neck when he took the mound at Toronto on June 8. It seemingly helped, as he scattered four hits over six innings in a 6-0 win over the Blue Jays. Greinke then took a no-hitter into the seventh inning and tossed 7.1 shutout innings in a 5-0 victory over Washington last Thursday. “I felt really good,” Greinke told reporters. “Everything was working, and things felt crisp. Most pitches I threw were coming out how I wanted them to. I felt good the whole time.” Greinke takes the mound tonight having produced quality starts in 13 of his 14 outings since an Opening Day start that saw him allow seven ERs over just 3.2 innings against the Dodgers. Greinke is 12-6 with a 3.85 ERA in 32 career starts vs the Rockies (teams are 18-14). Looking close, we find that Gray owns a solid 3.47 ERA at Coors Field but a 5.06 ERA on the road. Greinke's ERA is similar home (2.48) and away (2.78) but he's 3-0 in six home starts with Arizona going 5-1. What's more is, excluding his awful Opening Day start (see above), he's got a 2.07 ERA in his last 14 starts, along with an 82-12 KW ratio while allowing 63 hits in 91.1 innings. Greinke 'cools off' those red-hot Colorado bats in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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06-19-19 | White Sox v. Cubs -145 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
My 7* 'Battle 4 Chicago' is on the Chi Cubs at 8:05 ET. Eloy Jimenez hit a two-run HR in the top of the ninth to give the White Sox a 3-1 win over the Cubs last night at Wrigley Field. Jimenez was one of four prospects obtained when the White Sox traded Jose Quintana to the Cubs in July 2017. The 35-36 White Sox are 12 1/2 games out of 1st in the AL Central, while the Cubs are 39-33, just a half-game back in the NL Central. The crosstown rivals cap a brief two-game set on tonight, with the White Sox looking to complete a two-game sweep of the host Cubs. Lucas Giolito (10-1, 2.22 ERA) will take the mound for the White Sox, while Jon Lester (5-5, 4.08 ERA) will take the mound for the Cubs. Giolito became a regular in the starting rotation in 2018 but was just 10-13 with a 'ugly' 6.13 ERA in 32 starts (team was 14-18). However, what a difference a year makes! Giolito will be looking to win his NINTH straight start on Wednesday. He has posted a spectacular 0.94 ERA during his eight-start winning streak and has recorded 65 strikeouts over 57.1 innings. He has allowed fewer than two runs in SEVEN of the outings and given up five or fewer hits in ALL eight starts. The White Sox are 11-2 in his 13 starts in 2019, giving him MLB's top moneyline mark at plus-$1,155. The veteran Lester has had an up-and-down season. He served up a season-worst three HRs and gave up six runs on nine hits over five innings in a 7-3 loss at the Dodgers last Thursday. He has now allowed four or more ERs in FIVE of his last six outings, going 2-4 with a 7.59 ERA. However, Lester opened the season allowing just five ERs over his first seven starts (1.16 ERA). Lester is 9-6 with a 4.13 ERA in 17 career starts against the White Sox (teams are 11-6). Can Giolito really be this good? He has struggled in his two career starts vs the Cubs, posting a 5.84 ERA. He will take on a Cubs team which is 24-12 at Wrigley (outscoring opponents 4.75-to-3.50 RPG), including going 12-4 vs right-handers in night games (5.5 RPG). Lester has had trouble on the road (5.82 ERA) but at home he owns a 2.45 ERA with the Cubs going 5-2. I'm on the vet over the 'overachieving' youngster. Cubs win! Cubs win! Good luck...Larry |
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06-19-19 | Brewers +101 v. Padres | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* Getaway Day Game of the Month is on the Mil Brewers at 3:40 ET. The San Diego Padres beat the Milwaukee Brewers 4-1 Tuesday night, climbing back to .500 at 37-37. Meanwhile the Brewers fell to 2-5 on their eight-game road trip, although at 40-33, they maintain a half-game lead over the Cubs in the NL Central. Wednesday afternoon's game caps a short three-game homestand for the Padres, who have won three in row after losing SIX of their previous seven contests. The Brewers were shut out on four hits Monday night and Milwaukee ran its scoreless innings streak to 16 straight innings against the Padres on Tuesday, before scoring once in the eighth inning on a walk, two ground outs and a wild pitch. The Brewers were shut out for just the third time this season on Monday and went 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position on Tuesday. Zach Davies (7-1, 2.60 ERA) takes the mound for Milwaukee and Matt Strahm (2-6, 4.66 ERA) gets the nod for San Diego. Davies was 17-9 in 2017 but shoulder injuries limited him to just 13 starts in 2018 (2-7, 4.77 ERA). However, he opened this season with a 1.38 ERA over his first six outings and is working on the finest season of his career in 2019. Davies will be making his 15th start of the season Wednesday afternoon and while he did suffer his first loss of the season in his most recent outing (gave up three runs on six hits and a walk in five innings in a 5-3 loss at San Francisco last Friday), Davies became the first starter in Brewers history to win each of his first seven decisions in a season. Milwaukee is 9-5 in Davies' starts this season. Strahm was activated off the 10-day injured list after recovering from a left rib strain last Thursday and was hammered at Coors Field by the Rockies, allowing six runs on seven hits over just 3.1 innings in a 9-6 loss to Colorado. He takes the mound today, having lost three straight decisions while giving up 16 ERs on 18 hits and seven walks with 19 strikeouts over 13.2 innings for a 10.54 ERA and a 1.83 WHIP. Strahm will be making his first career start versus Milwaukee Hard to see the Milwaukee offense being held in check for a THIRD straight time, especially with Strahm's current record. As for Davies, expect him to get back in the "W' column, as he's 3-0 with a 2.16 ERA in four career starts vs the Padres (Brewers are 4-0). Good luck...Larry |
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06-18-19 | Indians v. Rangers +115 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Tex Rangers at 8:05 ET. The 38-33 Texas Rangers suffered an 11-3 loss at Cincinnati on Sunday to drop to 14-21 on the road in 2019 but they had been dominant at home (24-12) as they got set to open a seven-game homestand against Cleveland and the Chicago White Sox. The Cleveland Indians completed a three-game sweep at Detroit with an 8-0 victory on Sunday, winning for the EIGHTH time in 11 contests. The sweep gave the Indians a 37-33 mark and while they were still 10 games back of the first-place Twins in the AL Central, their recent surge allowed them to climb to within a half-game of the Texas Rangers for the AL's second wild card spot. That set the stage for the first of a three-game series Monday night. Danny Santana recorded two hits for the third straight game for Texas, including a two-run HR in Monday’s 7-2 triumph, as the Rangers improved to 25-12 at Globe Life Park), while the Indians fell to 37-34. Carlos Santana brings a 12-game hitting streak (13-for-45) into Tuesday’s contest while Francisco Lindor is 21-for-59 with four HRs this month for the Indians, who are just 17-17 on the road. The Indians send Zach Plesac 1-2, 2.92 ERA) to the mound Tuesday night, while the Rangers counter with Adrian Sampson ( (5-3, 4.21 ERA). Plesac is coming off his worst start in the majors. He allowed four runs over 5.1 innings of a 7-2 loss to Cincinnati on Wednesday, after allowing a total of just FOUR runs over 19.1 innings in his first three major-league starts (1.86 ERA). Plesac surrendering three HRs to Cincinnati on Wednesday and has allowed five HRs in four starts (24.1 innings). Sampson is coming off a poor outing as well, giving up six runs on seven hits (including four HRs!) over five innings in a no-decision at Boston last Thursday (Red Sox won, 7-6). That outing saw his five-game winning streak end. Sampson had come in after an "Opener" in the first three contests of his winning streak, then won back-to-back starts over KC (5-1) and Oakland (3-1). His June 8 win over Oakland was a complete-game triumph. During Sampson's winning streak, he allowed seven ERs over 31.2 innings for a 1.99 ERA. That streak came to a crashing halt last Thursday but note that it came against the Red Sox, who are currently on a six-game winning streak, averaging 6.8 RPG. Note that it also came on the road. Here at home, Sampson owns a 2.70 ERA in eight home appearances and in five home starts and two more 5.1-inning outings following an "opener," the Indians are 6-1! The Rangers made back-to-back World Series appearances in 2010 and 2011 (lost both), to begin a seven-year stretch in which the Rangers made the playoffs in FIVE of seven seasons. However, Texas would go 78-84 in 2017 and then 67-95 in 2018. That said, the 39-33 Rangers find themselves squarely in the thick of the American League playoff race thanks to their strong play over the last month. Texas is 22-11 over its last 33 games and has gone 15-6 at home its last 21, entering this series with Cleveland having won FIVE of its last six home series, while splitting (2-2) the sixth. I noted above that the Indians are just 17-17 on the road and will add that Texas is now 25-12 at home (averaging 5.86 RPG), including 18-10 vs righties, averaging 6.0 RPG. Why is Cleveland the road fave? Good luck...Larry |
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06-17-19 | Red Sox v. Twins -136 | 2-0 | Loss | -136 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Min Twins at 8:10 ET. The Boston Red Sox are the defending champs but since opening the season by going 2-8 on a 10-game road trip, Boston has been playing "catch-up." The Red Sox are currently 39-34, 5 1/2 games out of first in the AL East but just a single percentage point behind the 38-33 Texas Rangers (.535 to .534) for the AL's second wild card spot (note: three more teams are with 3 1/2 games of Boston). In contrast, the Twins have been at or near the top of the MLB 'world' for most of the season. Minnesota opens this three-game series with MLB's best record (47-23), mere percentage points ahead of the 48-24 Astros and Dodgers (note: The Twins own a 10-game lead in the AL Central). Rick Porcello (4-6, 4.69 ERA) will get the nod for Boston and Jose Berrios (8-2, 3.01 ERA) for Minnesota. Porcello won the AL's Cy Young award in 2016 (22-4, 3.15 ERA) but then flopped in 2017, going 11-17 with a 4.65 ERA. He rebounded for LY's champs, going 17-7 (despite a poor 4.28 ERA) but here in 2019, sits 4-6 with a 4.69 ERA in 14 starts (team is 4-0 in his no-decisions). Porcello ha started 31 times vs the Twins in his career, going 12-10 with a 3.83 ERA (teams are 16-15). Berrios (8-2, 3.01 ERA) has teamed with Jake Odorizzi (10-2, 2.24 ERA) to give the Twins quite a 1-2 'punch' at the top of the rotation. He is looking for his FIFTH straight quality start, after allowing just seven hits and one run (on a solo HR) over 6.2 innings without factoring in the decision last Wednesday against Seattle. Berrios owns an 84-17 KW ratio over 89.2 innings, with opponents batting .238 against him. The Twins are 11-3 in Berrios' 14 starts (+$673, MLB's 7th-best mark among starters) and are 23-11 at Target Field in 2019, outscoring opponents 5.24-to-3.59 RPG. Meanwhile, Porcello owns a 6.37 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and a BAA of .315 in six road starts in 2019. He will face a Minnesota lineup which ranks 1st in runs (5.96 per), team BA (.275), OPS (.857) and HRs (137). The Twins not only own MLB's best record, they also own its best moneyline mark at plus-$2128 (a rare 'daily double'). In contrast, the Red Sox, despite being five games over .500, rank 26th of 30 teams against the moneyline (minus-$1,283). Good luck...Larry |
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06-17-19 | Indians v. Rangers +121 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 121 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Underdog Game of the Month (AL) is on the the Tex Rangers at 8:05 ET. The Cleveland Indians completed a three-game sweep at Detroit with an 8-0 victory on Sunday, winning for the EIGHTH time in 11 contests. The 37-33 Indians are still 10 games back of the first-place Twins (47-23) in the AL Central but the team's recent surge has them within a half-game of the Texas Rangers for the AL's second wild card spot. The 38-33 Rangers suffered an 11-3 loss at Cincinnati on Sunday to drop to 14-21 on the road in 2019 but they have been dominant at home (24-12) as they get set to open a seven-game homestand against Cleveland and the Chicago White Sox. Mike Clevinger (1-0, 0.00 ERA) gets the nod for the Indians and will be opposed by Lance Lynn (7-4, 4.40 ERA). Clevinger went 12-6 (3.11 ERA) in 2017 (team was 14-7 in his 21 starts) and then 13-8 (3.02 ERA) in 32 starts last season (team was just 16-16). He opened the 2019 season by pitching 12 scoreless innings with a 22-4 KW ratio (1-0 / team 2-0) but suffered a strained muscle in his upper back during that second start of the season. He returns to the mound for the first time since April 7. Clevinger is 0-1 with a 2.42 ERA in five career outings (three starts / Indians are 0-3) against Texas. Lynn won 71 games for the Cards in a five-year span from 2012-17 (he missed the 2016 season) but his 2018 season, split between the Twins and Yanks, was a flop (10-10, 4.77 ERA). However, has "settled in" with Texas, having allowed three ERS or less in 11 of his 14 starts this season. The vet attempts to post his EIGHTH straight quality start tonight, having posted a 1.99 ERA and 3-2 record over his last seven outings. Lynn has faced the Indians just twice in his career but he's 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA! Obviously, the Indians are playing well but Clevinnger has to be considered a question mark in his first major league start since April 7. As for Texas, the Rangers made back-to-back World Series appearances in 2010 and 2011 (lost both), to begin a seven-year stretch in which the Rangers made the playoffs in FIVE of seven seasons. However, Texas would go 78-84 in 2017 and then 67-95 in 2018. That said, the 38-33 Rangers find themselves squarely in the thick of the American League playoff race thanks to their strong play over the last month (see above). Texas is 21-11 over its last 32 games and has gone 14-6 at home its last 20, winning FIVE of its last six home series, while splitting (2-2) the sixth. Good luck...Larry |
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06-16-19 | Brewers -141 v. Giants | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
My 7* Situational Stunner is on the Mil Brewers at 4:05 ET. The San Francisco Giants were off on Monday but then swept a brief two-game home series agianststhe Padres on Tuesday and Wednesday. It was another off day on Thursday, before the Giants claimed the first two matchups of their three-game home series with the Brewers on Friday and Saturday. San Francisco erased an early 4-0 deficit Saturday afternoon, rallying for an 8-7 triumph which gives them a season-high four-game winning streak. The Giants go for the three-game sweep on Sunday, as the Brewers continue their current eight-game road trip, after opening just 1-3. Chase Anderson (3-1, 3.80 ERA) gets the ball for Milwaukee, opposed by San Francisco's Jeff Samardzija (3-5, 3.72 ERA). Anderson opened the season with five relief appearances, then made a couple of starts (both Milwaukee wins), before going on the DL. He has been solid since returning to the rotation and in his last outing, limited Pittsburgh to two runs on four hits with six strikeouts over six solid innings of a 5-2 Milwaukee win. It was his longest start of the year. He's posted a solid 3.58 ERA in his seven starts of 2019. Samardzija lost for the FOURTH time in his last five starts in his last outing, giving up three runs over 5.1 innings of a 7-2 home loss against the Dodgers on June 8. He does own a 2.53 ERA in six home starts this year, while limiting opponents to a .216 average in those outings, but he's just 1-1 and the team 3-3. The bottom line is, Samardzija has been a career "underachiever." Speaking of underachieving, let me add here that Samardzija is 1-5 with a 4.18 ERA in 12 career starts against the Brewers, which is an 86% "go-against." That's MORE than just "underachieving." He'll face a Milwaukee team here that is 12-5 vs right-handers in day game in 2019, averaging 5.4 RPG. Meanwhile, Anderson takes on a San Francisco lineup which was just 3-8 in home day games vs righties (averaging 3.0 RPG), before Saturday's 8-7 win over Jeff Nelson, who was making just his second big league appearance since September of 2017. The fact that Anderson is 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA in three career starts at Oracle Park in San Francisco, adds even more confidence in my play. Good luck...Larry |
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06-16-19 | Padres v. Rockies -145 | Top | 14-13 | Loss | -145 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
My MLB 10* Game of the Week is on the Col Rockies at 3:10 ET. The Padres and Rockies will conclude a four-game series at Coors Field in Denver on Sunday afternoon. It's been quite an 'explosive' series, with the Rockies opening with a 9-6 win on Thursday, the Padres rebounding with a 16-12 win on Friday (note: San Diego trailed 11-5 entering the ninth inning and tied it to force extra innings, then scored five more in the 12th to win 16-12) and then Colorado won last night, 14-8. The teams have combined for 65 runs on 97 hits (including 13 HRs) and 24 walks. With this backdrop, a pair of rookie pitchers face the daunting task of slowing down this offensive assault on Coors Field. Nick Margevicius (2-6, 5.02 ERA) takes the mound for San Diego and Peter Lambert (2-0, 1.50 ERA) for Colorado. Margevicius made his major league debut on March 30 in a 3-2 loss to San Francisco. He got his first big-league win 11 days later against the Giants (3-1) and through his first three starts was 1-1 with a 1.69 ERA (team was 2-1). However, he's 1-5 in his last eight starts. Margevicius had allowed 16 runs (15 earned) in 12 innings across three starts before he threw 3.2 shutout innings against Washington on June 7 (Padres won ). He takes the mound today 0-4 with a 6.33 ERA over his last six starts and has NEVER pitched more than SIX innings in a big-league game. Lambert was a second-round pick in 2015 and was 26-29 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 97 minor league starts.However, he allowed just ONE run in each of his first two major league starts (both against the Cubs) , allowing seven hits and three walks while striking out 12 over 12 innings in a 10-3 win Tuesday and a 3-1 victory at Chicago on June 6. Here's the take on Lambert from catcher Chris Iannetta. "He has great stuff. The curveball is really good. The changeup's a plus changeup. His fastball command is plus when he has it. He understands that executing pitches is the way he's going to be successful, and he reverts back to that instead of trying to out-stuff guys. He's pretty cerebral. He knows what he's trying to do out there. And he has a really good understanding of his body and his mechanics. He has a plan of attack, and he has great command on top of that and that really helps." Lambert takes the mound behind a Colorado lineup that is 9-2 at home in day games, averaging 7.1 RPG. That's the same lineup Margevicius will have to tame. Do we have any insight on how he will fair? Just maybe, as Margevicius has faced Colorado twice in 2019, allowing five ERs over four innings at San Diego on April 16 in an 8-2 loss and then five more ERs at Colorado (over five innings) in a 10-7 loss on May 12. That's 0-2 with a 10.00 ERA. Which team do you want today? Good luck...Larry |
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06-15-19 | Phillies -110 v. Braves | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Phi Phillies at 7:20 ET. The Phillies and Braves opened the 2019 season with a three-game series in Philadelphia, with the Phillies sweeping the Braves and outscoring them 23-11. The two teams had not met since but opened a three-game series Friday in Atlanta, with the Braves holding a 1 1/2-game lead in the National League East standings over the Phillies. In the first matchup between the top-two teams in the NL East in 75 days, the Braves rallied from deficits of 6-2 and 8-4 to win for the FOURTH time this season when trailing after eight innings. Atlanta scored TWICE in the eighth and THREE times in the ninth to win, 9-8. Atlanta has now won 23 of its last 32 games to extend its lead to 2 1/2 games over Philadelphia in the NL East. The crushing loss for Philly gives them NINE losses over the team's last 14 games. Saturday's pitching matchup features Aaron Nola (6-1, 4.58 ERA) and Sean Newcomb (1-0, 2.59 ERA). Nola is coming off a career season in 2018, going 17-6 with a 2.37 ERA (Phils went 22-11 in all of his starts, going +$983 vs the moneyline). Nola posted a poor 5.68 ERA in April but excelled in May by going 4-0 with a 2.73 ERA in six starts (Phils were a PERFECT 6-0!), while averaging 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings. He lost his first start of June (it's his LONE loss of 2019!), by allowing SIX runs on eight hits in 5.1 innings (8-2 at San Diego) on June 3 but rebounded to hold Cincinnati to three runs on four hits with seven strikeouts in 6.2 innings this past Sunday in a no-decision. Newcomb started 30 games for Atlanta in 2018, going 12-9 with a 3.90 ERA (team was 15-15 in his starts, +$17). The 26-year-old posted a 4.38 ERA in three starts before being demoted to the minors but since returning he's been used as a reliever, posting a 1.42 ERA with a 21-2 KW ratio in 16 appearances over 19 innings. Newcomb replaced Gausman on Monday against Pittsburgh, earning the win in Atlanta's 13-7 victory, allowing just one hit with no walks and six strikeouts in 4.2 innings. He returns to the rotation tonight, taking over for the injured Kevin Gausman (right plantar fasciitis). However, he may not be there long as newly signed Dallas Keuchel could join Atlanta next weekend at Washington. The Braves' 'miracle' win last night gives Atlanta its first eight-game win streak since May 17-25, 2013 but I say, "Enough is ENOUGH!" I have almost NO faith in Newcomb, who draws a tough mound opponent. Nola is 8-3 in 13 career starts against Atlanta, posting an impressive 2.05 ERA. He has more wins against the Braves than any other opponent and I expect career win No. 9 over the Braves to come tonight. Surely, "the Price is Right!' Good luck...Larry |
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06-14-19 | Brewers -136 v. Giants | 3-5 | Loss | -136 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Mil Brewers at 10:15 ET. Milwaukee lost a 10-8 slugfest at Houston on Tuesday and then overcame 24 strikeouts to edge the Astros 6-3 in 14 innings on Wednesday (Mike Moustakas' two-run HR sealed the victory). Milwaukee had Thursday off and after facing the team with MLB's best record (Houston), the Brewers visit tSan Francisco for a three-game series with the 28-38 Giants, who reside in last place in the NL West (16 1/2 games back of the Dodgers). Milwaukee leads the NL with 121 HRs, while the Giants have just 60 HRs, ranking 14th of 15 NL teams. Zach Davies (7-0, 2.41 ERA) takes the mound in Friday's opener and he'll be opposed by Drew Pomeranz (1-6, 7.16 ERA). Davies was 17-9 in 2017 but injuries limited him to just 13 starts in 2018 (2-7, 4.77 ERA). However, he's well on his way to the finest season of his career, as he's yet to lose in 13 starts (7-0 / team is 9-4). He is 4-0 in six home starts (Milwaukee is 5-1) but his home ERA (3.13) is 1.25 higher than his 1.88 ERA in seven road starts. Davies has only faced the Giants twice and although he's yet to win, he does own a 1.64 ERA in two starts vs.San Francisco. Drew Pomeranz took the mound last Friday against Kershaw and the Dodgers fighting to keep his spot in the rotation. He was coming off one of the worst outings of his career the previous Friday in Baltimore, allowing eight runs on six hits and two walks, while lasting just 1.1 innings. The veteran lefty had not reached the fourth inning in any of his previous FOUR starts, allowing 22 ERs on 25 hits over 10.1 innings for an astronomical 20.17 ERA. However, he turned in his most encouraging outing in over a month when he allowed three hits and struck out seven over five scoreless innings (SF won 2-1). That said, let's note that Pomeranz has gone six innings in just ONE of his 11 starts in 2019. Like Davies, Pomeranz has made just two starts against this opponent without a win but UNLIKE Davies, his ERA of 8.00 ERA in those two career starts against the Brewers are a far cry from Davies' 1.64 ERA vs the Giants. Also weighing heavily in Milwaukee's favor is the fact that the right-handed Davies will face a San Francisco lineup that is not only 28th in scoring at 3.29 RPG and 29th in team BA at .222 but also 8-13 in home games against righties, averaging a WOEFUL 2.9 RPG. Good luck...Larry |
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06-14-19 | Cubs v. Dodgers -127 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
My NL 10* Game of the Month is on the LA Dodgers at 10:10 ET. The Chicago Cubs fell 7-3 in their series opener last night at Dodger Stadium, the team's THIRD club's loss in its four games. The Cubs fell to 14-19 on the road and to 38-30 overall, one game back of the Brewers in the NL Central. Los Angeles hit four HRs, upping its home record to 26-7 (outscoring opponents 5.73-to-3.39 RPG) and its overall record to 46-23 (tied with Houston for the ML lead), giving the Dodgers a 9 1/2 game lead in the NL West. Friday's pitching matchup features Kyle Hendricks (7-4, 3.00 ERA) and Rich Hill (3-1, 2.50 ERA). Hendricks was just 1-4 with a 5.33 ERA through five starts but has turned his season around. The right-hander is not just 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA over his last three starts (20-2 KW ratio in 22 innings) but he's won SIX consecutive decisions and has a 1.99 ERA over his last eight starts going back to the start of May (Cubs are 7-1). Hendricks' "opposite number' is lefty Rich Hill. His season got off to a late start because of a knee injury but ever since allowing FIVE runs in his 2019 debut to Pittsburgh back on April 28 (note: LA won that game 7-6), he has NOT allowed more than three runs in any of his last SEVEN starts. Hill has won back-to-back starts to open June, allowing just two ERs over 12 innings (1.29 ERA). Hendricks is certainly pitching well but we must look closer. Most of his success has come at home, where in seven Wrigley starts he owns a 1.65 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. That compares to a 4.89 ERA in sis road starts with a 1.43 WHIP. He's just 2-2 in four career regular-season starts against the Dodgers with a 5.16 ERA, as the Dodgers have reached him for five HRs in 22.2 innings. Hendricks has a 6.52 ERA in two starts at Dodger Stadium, with his most recent start at Los Angeles coming on June 27 of last year when he gave up six runs on just eight hits in just 2.2 innings, easily his shortest of the season. What's more, Hendricks takes on an LA team which is a DOMINATING 19-3 at home vs righties in 2019 (that's an 86% winning situation!), averaging 6.6 RPG while earning a profit of $1,455 (at $100/game). The 39-year-old Hill has proven to be as energetic and competitive as anybody on the Dodgers' roster and the lefty will face a Chicago lineup which in 1-4 on the road vs lefties in night games, scoring only 2.4 RPG. LA is the play! Good luck...Larry |
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06-14-19 | Phillies v. Braves -135 | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the Atl Braves at 7:20 ET. The Phillies and Braves opened the 2019 season with a three-game series in Philadelphia, with the Phillies sweeping the Braves and outscoring them 23-11. The two teams have not met since but open a three-game series tonight in Atlanta, with the Braves holding a 1 1/2-game lead in the National League East standings over the Phillies. We are still about a month away from the All Star break, so it's too early to put too much importance on this series but both clubs surely realize they are "the teams to beat" in the NL East. Nick Pivetta (4-1, 4.93 ERA) will get the ball for Philly and Max Fried (7-3, 3.75 ERA). Pivetta as optioned to Triple-A Lehigh Valley in mid-April, after posting a 8.35 ERA his first four starts. However, since returning from the minors on May 28, Pivetta has bolstered Philadelphia’s rotation by going 2-0 in three starts with a 1.80 ERA and a .171 opponents batting average over 20 innings. More good news comes in the fact that Pivetta has made nine career starts against the Braves, going 4-1 with a 3.21 ERA (team is 7-2). Fried began 2019 with two relief stints but then recorded a 2.96 ERA over his first 10 starts of 2019 from April 4 through May 22 (Braves were 7-3). However, the 25-year-old had surrendered nine runs on 18 hits over 9.2 innings in two straight outings (8.38 ERA), before pitching well in a no-decision Sunday at Miami (Atl won 7-6), giving up three runs on six hits with one walk and seven strikeouts over six innings. Breaking the game down further, the Phils come in having lost EIGHT of their last 13 games, allowing five-plus runs SEVEN times in that span. In stark contrast, the Braves enter on a SEVEN-game winning streak, averaging SEVEN runs per game while reaching double-digits in hits SIX times.The Braves enter this contest averaging 5.4 RPG in home night games vs righties in 2019, while the Phils are 2-8 vs lefties on the road, including 1-6 (that's an 86% "go-against") in night games while averaging a pathetic 3.0 RPG. Good luck...Larry |
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06-13-19 | Cardinals v. Mets -124 | 5-4 | Loss | -124 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET. The Mets salvaged a split of their day-night doubleheader against the Yankees on Tuesday, with a 10-4 victory in Tuesday's nightcap (lost the first game 12-5). Rookie Pete Alonso belted a three-run HR (he owns a team-leading 22 HRs) in the first inning, while Carlos Gomez and J.D. Davis also homered. The Mets have won five of seven overall and boast a 19-11 mark at Citi Field, as they open a four-game series with the St Louis Cardinals. The Card lost 9-0 at Miami on Wednesday, falling to 2-4 on their 10-game road trip, leaving them 13-20 on the road in 2019. Thursday's pitching matchup features Jack Flaherty (4-3, 4.08 ERA) vs Jacob deGrom (3-6, 3.45 ERA). Flaherty has had a solid rookie season in 2018, going 8-9 with a 3.34 ERA in 28 starts. Here in 2019, he's pitched very well at home but has been a disaster on the road. Flaherty owns a 2.25 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in seven home starts but has posted a 6.67 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in six away starts. DeGrom was just 10-9 in 2018 but won last year's NL Cy Young award with a 1.70 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and .196 BAA. He lacked run support last season and has had a similar issue in 2019, although his ERA is up to 3.45, his WHIP up to 1.15 and his BAA is .233. Here's the deal. The Cards are a poor road team (13-20), allowing 5.06 RPG. Flaherty's road numbers are 'ugly' and I'll add that hitters are batting .291 against him, as opposed to .188 batting at home. The Mets are a solid 19-11 at home, averaging 5.07 RPG. As for deGrom, a lackluster offense and leaky bullpen have done him no favors, as he received two runs or less of support in FIVE starts this season. Against Flaherty, that WILL change! The "situation" sets up perfectly for deGrom to earn a "W." That's the bet. Good luck...Larry |
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06-13-19 | Diamondbacks -115 v. Nationals | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* NL Pitching Mismatch of the Month is on the Arz D'backs at 7:05 ET. The Washington Nationals were getting close to the cellar of the NL East late last month but Washington has won 12 of its last 17 to climb to 31-36, lifting them 6 1/2 games up on last place Miami and moving to 7 1/2 games back of first place Atlanta. The Nats open a four-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Thursday, the first contest of their 11-game homestand. The D'backs come to Washington for four games, which will conclude the team's 10-game road trip. Arizona has opened the trip 5-1, after Wednesday's 2-0 win at Philadelphia. Arizona is 36-33, which is 9 1/2 games back of the Dodgers in the NL West but the D'backs are just 2 1/2 games out of the second NL wild card spot. Thursday's pitching matchup features Zack Greinke (7-2, 2.87 ERA) and Erick Fedde (1-0, 2.93 ERA). Greinke had an extra day of rest this past Saturday at Toronto, after exiting his previous start with a sore neck. It seemingly helped, as he scattered four hits over six innings in a 6-0 win over the Blue Jays. The victory was just the first in a four-start stretch but DON'T ignore the fact that after an Opening Day start that saw him allow seven ERs over just 3.2 innings against the Dodgers, Greinke has produced 11 quality starts in 12 of his next 13 outings (2.25 ERA in that baker's dozen of games). Opposing Greinke will be Erick Fedde, a 2014 first-round pick. He opened this season with just 14 career starts and began the season in the bullpen. However, he has acquitted himself well in his four starts since joining the rotation on May 21. He's 1-0 (team is 2-2) with a 2.70 ERA. This marks his 19th career start and FIRST against Arizona. Arizona has been a money-maker on the road (22-17, +$897), while Washington (even after the team's recent good run), owns the 4th-worst moneyline mark (-$1,513) in MLB. That said, the 'key' here is Greinke over Fedde. Fedde is a 'work in progress,' while Greinke (the AL's 2009 Cy Young winner) is a proven winner. I've stated his impressive 2019 numbers above and will add that Greinke is 5-1 in eight career starts (teams are 6-2) with a 1.46 ERA and 0.91 WHIP vs Washington. Greinke has NOT lost to the Nationals since 2014 and DON'T expect him to lose tonight! Good luck...Larry |
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06-12-19 | Brewers v. Astros -127 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -127 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Hou Astros at 8:10 ET. The Houston Astros opened the 2019 season with a seven-game road trip and went 2-5. However, the team responded with a 10-game winning streak (April5-16) to 'right the ship.' Another 10-game winning streak (May 8-18) solidified its lead in the AL West. The now 46-22 Astros (owners of MLB's best record) won for the 10th time in their last 12 games after they won a 10-8 slugfest on Tuesday in the opener of a brief two-game IL series with the Brewers. Yordan Alvarez became the first player in franchise history to homer in each of his first two major-league games, while Robinson Chirinos, Yuli Gurriel and Tyler White also went deep for Houston. Milwaukee's Christian Yelich belted his major league-leading 25th homer while going 3-for-5 to extend his hitting streak to nine games. Milwaukee had won four straight after sweeping three from Pittsburgh over the weekend and continue to go 'tit-for-tat' with the Cubs in the NL Central. Both Milwaukee and Chicago lost yesterday, so the 38-29 Brewers maintain a half-game lead on the Cubs in the NL Central. Brandon Woodruff (8-1, 3.87 ERA) and Justin Verlander (9-2, 2.31 ERA) square off in Wednesday night's game. Woodruff's ONLY loss of the 2019 season came back on April 10, when he lost 4-2 against the Los Angeles Angels on April 10. He has since allowed two rus or less in SEVEN of his last 10 starts. The Brewers have won NINE of those 10 starts and have gone 11-2 in his 13 starts this season, giving him MLB's 3rd-best moneyline mark (+$851). Woodruff has pitched well but he's NO Justin Verlander, who looks to become the first 10-game winner in the major leagues in tonight's contest. Verlander did not factor in the decision in his last outing, allowing three runs on five hits over 6.1 innings at Seattle (Astros won, 8-7). He has now given up five hits or less in 11 straight starts. Houston is 11-3 in his 14 starts this season and Verlander owns an 0.74 WHIP, while limiting opponents to a .151 batting average in 2019 (110-19 KW ratio). He is 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA in two career starts against the Brewers and in five homes starts in 2019, owns a 1.75 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, .143 BAA and 40-5 KW ratio. Why has this line moved so much towards Milwaukee? Houston has won five straight series and is 10-0-1 in its last 11 series, despite missing key regulars such as George Springer, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa. Good luck...Larry |
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06-12-19 | Reds v. Indians -128 | 7-2 | Loss | -128 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
My 8* Getaway Day Romp is on the Cle Indians at 1:10 ET. The Cleveland Indians were not able to sweep the Yankees on Sunday (lost 7-6) but the team's offense came alive by scoring 37 runs in the last six games (6.17 per) in winning back-to-back series over the Twins and Yankees. The Indians opened a two-game IL series with the Reds last night (Ohio Cup) and escaped with a 2-1 win when rookie Oscar Mercado ended it with a bases-loaded single in the 10th. Trevor Bauer entered Tuesday's game 0-5 in his previous seven outings (team was 1-6 ) and with a 5.61 home ERA on the season. However, he gave Cleveland 7.2 strong innings (allowed one run), then saw three relievers pitch 2.1 scoreless innings. A lack of offense continues to haunt the Reds, who dropped to 2-6 in their last eight games, having scored only a combined EIGHT runs in those six losses. The teams wrap-up the two-game set Wednesday afternoon with Anthony DeSclafani (2-3, 4.70 ERA) going up against Zach Plesac (1-1, 1.86 ERA). DeSclafani has not won since May 6, stretching his winless drought to five starts his last time out at St. Louis (despite holding the Cardinals to one run and striking out seven over five innings in a game the Cards won 3-1). That was a solid effort but note that over his previous five starts, DeSclafani completed six innings just ONE time, allowing 18 ERs over 23.1 innings for a 6.94 ERA. Meanwhile, Plesac has provided a spark to the Indians' injury-ravaged rotation since he was promoted from the minors late last month. He earned his first major league victory by limiting the New York Yankees to two runs over seven innings in his third career start last Friday (a 5-2 Cleveland win). The 24-year-old is holding batters to a .209 BAA in his three starts, allowing four ERs over 19.1 innings (1.86 ERA) with an 0.88 WHIP and 14-3 KW ratio. The 34-32 Indians are 10 1 /2 games back of the Twins in the AL Central but are just TWO games back in the race for the AL's second wild card spot. Capturing a THIRD straight series (after taking two of three from the Twins and Yankees) would have to be a confidence-builder. Considering the Indians have won 16 of their last 21 meetings with the Reds and that Cleveland owns a distinct advantage in starting pitchers (Plesac over DeSclafani) plus MLB's lowest bullpen ERA (3.21), the Indians are the play. Good luck...Larry |
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06-11-19 | Brewers v. Astros -110 | Top | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND Play is on the Hou Astros at 8:10 ET. The Houston Astros opened the 2019 season with a seven-game road trip and went 2-5. However, the team responded with a 10-game winning streak (April5-16) to 'right the ship.' Another 10-game winning streak (May 8-18) solidified its lead in the AL West. The now 45-22 Astros are tied for MLB's best record with the Dodgers plus own a nine-game lead in the AL West. They step into interleague play tonight when they host the Milwaukee Brewers in the first contest of a two-game set. Houston has won five straight series and is 10-0-1 in its last 11 series, despite missing key regulars such as George Springer, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa. The 38-28 Milwaukee have won four straight after sweeping three from Pittsburgh over the weekend and continue to go 'tit-for-tat' with the 37-28 Cubs in the NL Central. Taking the mound on Tuesday night in Houston will be Milwaukee's Freddy Peralta (3-2, 5.11 ERA) and Houston's Brad Peacock (5-3, 3.20 ERA). Peralta opened the season in the starting rotation but after five starts, was sent to the bullpen. He went six innings (four hits and one run allowed) in an April 6 win but in his other four starts, allowed a whopping 26 hits and 20 ERs in just 13.2 innings (13.17 ERA). Four of his five appearances from May 7 through May 31 came out of the bullpen but he started last last Thursday at home vs the Marlins, allowing just one run on four hits with nine strikeouts in six innings of a 5-1 victory. Peacock went 13-2 (3.00 ERA) when the Astros won the 2017 World Series, making 34 appearances (including 21 starts). However, he made just ONE start in 2018, in 61 appearances (mostly used in middle-relief, as he had just three saves). However, he's made 11 starts in 13 appearances this season and has excelled since going to a full wind-up with the bases empty. He suffered his first loss since changing his delivery last Wednesday, 14-1 at Seattle. However, note that he allowed just two runs, four hits and two walks while striking out six in five innings of that loss (bullpen allowed 12 runs over three innings!) I wouldn't make too much of Peralta's win over Miami, which owns the NL's worst record plus ranks dead-last in all of MLB in scoring (3.47 RPG), OPS (.642) and HRs (48). Peralta faces a Houston team which is 24-9 at home (outscoring opponents 5.03-to-3.61 RPG) and a lineup which ranks 2nd in team BA (.267), 2nd in OPS (.811) and 4th in HRs (106). Houston is 18-7 in home games vs righties, averaging 5.2 RPG. Peacock takes the mound 3-1 with a 1.32 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in six starts (team is 5-1) since making the change with 41 strikeouts in 34 innings during that span. I'm "all over" Houston in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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06-10-19 | Cubs v. Rockies -125 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Col Rockies at 8:40 ET. The Chicago Cubs won 5-1 on Sunday over St Louis, completing a three-game sweep of their NL Central rival. Chicago improved to 24-11 on the season at Wrigley, after wrapping up a 6-1 homestand during which it outscored the opposition 41-21. The Cubs will now spend the upcoming week trying to prove they can go toe-to-toe with the two of the best teams in the National League West on the road (three with the Rockies and four with the Dodgers). Colorado lost two of three at Wrigley (Tue-Thu) and then saw its bats silenced for the most part over the weekend in New York, scoring a total of just FOUR four runs in losing TWO of three to the Mets. On the season, the Rockies rank third in the NL in runs (340), just ahead of the Cubs (335). Monday's pitching matchup Yu Darvish (2-3, 4.88 ERA) of Chicago and German Marquez (6-3, 4.07 ERA) of Colorado is a quick "re-hook" of Chicago's 9-8 win over Colorado last Wednesday. Darvish did not factor in the decision for a SEVENTH straight outing last Wednesday. He gave up three runs (two earned) on three hits and three walks over 5.1 innings against Colorado. The Cubs signed Darvish to a big deal in 2018, after his AWFUL performance in the 2017 World Series for the Dodgers. He was limited to just eight starts in 2018 (due to injury), finishing 1-3 with a 4.95 ERA. He's made 13 starts in 2019 but owns a 4.88 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. Marquez endured one of the worst starts of his career last Wednesday in Chicago, allowing eight runs on seven hits and a walk over 5.1 innings in that 9-8 loss to the Cubs. I'm not sure where that start came from? After all, Marquez has been Colorado's best pitcher in 2019. He was coming off a May in which he was 3-0 in six starts, as the Rockies were 5-1 when he took the mound. I'll 'jump all over' the Rockies and Marquez in this quick "re-hook." Including last Wednesday's outing, Darvish is now 0-3 with an 8.20 ERA in four career starts against Colorado (teams are 1-3). Marquez takes the mound with the Rockies having gone 6-1 in his seven starts this season at Coors and gets his 'revenge!' Good luck...Larry |
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06-09-19 | Nationals -108 v. Padres | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Was Nationals at 4:10 ET. The Washington Nats came to San Diego on Thursday having won FOUR straight and NINE of their last 11. However, the Nats lost back-to-back games (each by a 5-4 score) to open the four-game set, before winning last night 4-1 behind Max Scherzer (7 IP / 0 runs / 9 Ks). Second baseman Brian Dozier hit a two-run homer and is batting .328 with five HRs and 16 RBI over his last 19 contests. Anthony Rendon extended his on-base streak to 23 straight games with a run-scoring single and is hitting .341 with five HRs and 22 RBI over that stretch.The defeat was San Diego's FIFTH in its last eight games. Sunday's pitching matchup will feature Stephen Strasburg (6-3, 3.54 ERA) and Luis Perdomo (1-0, 4.08 ERA). Strasburg has won his last three decisions, pitching at least seven innings in three of his last four outings. He earned his 100th career victory this past Tuesday against the White Sox, despite allowing five runs over five innings. Strasburg is 7-2 with a 3.00 ERA in 10 career starts s the Padres (Nats are 7-3). The Padres took their time naming their starter for Sunday but eventually decided to give the nod to Luis Perdomo. Perdomo is set to make a spot start in place of Matt Strahm, who was placed on the 10-day injured list Wednesday with soreness in his left side. Perdomo has made 11 relief appearances this season, recording a 17-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 17.2 innings. Perdomo actually threw one inning in Saturday's loss and will likely serve as the team's "opener," before handing the ball to other relievers, including Robbie Erlin, who made 12 starts for the Padres last season. Strange decision by the Padres in starting Perdomo and considering that Strasburg owns a 1.00 WHIP, allowing 22 runs (21 earned) on 48 hits and 15 walks with 80 strikeouts in 63 innings vs San Diego in his career, the Nats are the "easy choice," especially at this price. Good luck...Larry |
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06-08-19 | Cardinals v. Cubs -103 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Chi Cubs at 7:15 ET. The Cards/Cubs may not quite match the Red Sox/Yankees or Dodgers/Giants in the storied history of MLB rivalries, but the St Louis/Chicago rivalry comes close. The Cubs dropped three straight in St Louis to the Cards last weekend but improved to 4-0 against the Cardinals at home in 2019 with Friday's 3-1 triumph. Cole Hamels tossed eight scoreless innings to make Javier Baez's first-inning, two-run HR stand up as the Cubs improved to 22-11 at home. As for the Cards, the loss was the team's 11th in its last 14 on the road. Jack Flaherty (4-3, 3.76 ERA) gets the nod for St Louis and Jon Lester (4-4, 3.32 ERA) for Chicago. Flaherty has had a solid rookie season in 2018, going 8-9 with a 3.34 ERA in 28 starts. He's pitched solid again in 2019, with a 3.76 ERA over 12 starts. That said, he's been much more effective at home. Flaherty owns a 2.25 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in seven home starts, while posting a 6.20 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in five away starts. Lester was dominant through his first seven starts of 2019 (despite a two-week stay on the DL), allowing just five ERs over 38.2 innings (1.16 ERA). However, he hit a 'brick wall' going 0-3 with a 10.28 ERA over his final three starts of May. However, the veteran lefty opened June by limiting the Los Angeles Angels to a run in seven innings while striking out six in an 8-1 victory. Looking closely at this matchup finds the Cards on a 3-11 run away from home and starting a pitcher on the mound with some real 'ugly' road numbers (see above). Meanwhile, the Cubs are 22-11 at Wrigley with Lester owning a 1.76 ERA in six home starts in 2019 while posting a 32-4 KW ratio in 30.2 innings. Lester also owns a 2.85 ERA in 18 career starts against the Cardinal. on last thing. The Cubs are 12-3 (that's 80% ) in home night games vs righties in 2019. Expect another home team win in this rivalry, as the home team has taken each of the first SEVEN meetings between the Cardinals and Cubs this year. Cubs win! Cubs win! Good luck...Larry |
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06-08-19 | Yankees -125 v. Indians | 4-8 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekend Wipeout is on the NY Yankees at 4:10 ET. Cleveland posted its third win in four games with a 5-2 victory in the series opener against the Yankees, behind a tie-breaking two-run HR from Carlos Santana in the sixth-inning. The Yankees have now lost FOUR of five and are in jeopardy of dropping back-to-back series, after winning the previous NINE. The Yankees are also in danger of falling out of first place in the AL East, as they are currently just a half-game up on the Rays (NY is 39-23 and TB is 38-23). As for Cleveland, the Indians' win moves them above .500 (32-31) but a whopping 10 1/2-games back of the Twins in the AL Central. CC Sabathia (3-2, 3.61 ERA) gets the ball for the Yankees and Adam Plutko (1-1, 6.35 ERA) for the Indians. Sabathia spent nearly all of his first eight major league seasons with the Cleveland Indians, winning an American League Cy Young Award and 106 games. With CC announcing that he will retire at the end of the season, this will be his last start in Cleveland. Sabathia had a four-start unbeaten streak halted against the Boston Red Sox this past Sunday, giving up three runs on seven hits in an 8-5 loss. However, he did have a season-high eight strikeouts over six innings. Plutko had an impressive season debut on May 18, beating the Orioles 4-1 (allowing only a solo HR in six innings). However, he took a major step back when he was battered by Tampa Bay for seven runs on 12 hits over 5.1 innings on May 23 in a 7-2 loss. That performance earned him a demotion to the minors but with Cleveland's starting rotation ravaged by injuries, Plutko will be summoned from Triple-A Columbus to make his 15th career start. Plutko's made just 21 big leaue appearances (14 starts), posting a 5.50 ERA. He will face a Yankee lineup which is 32-15 this season against righties, averaging 5.6 RPG. Let me add that the Yanks are averaging 6.03 RPG on the road this season and are getting healthier (Didi Gregorius had a pair of singles in his first game since undergoing Tommy John surgery last October). Plutko will be opposed by Sabathia, looking for his 250th career win in his last appearance in Cleveland. The play is on New York. Good luck...Larry |
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06-08-19 | Diamondbacks -130 v. Blue Jays | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Arz D'backs at 3:07 ET. The Arizona Diamondbacks opened a 10-game road trip Friday night in Toronto with an 8-2 win. The D'backs hit three HRs in scoring eight times, after scoring a total of just four runs in the team's final three games of its last homestand. Arizona hopes to carry that momentum into Saturday afternoon's matchup vs the Blue Jays, after losing 12 of its previous 18. Toronto could play the perfect foil, as the Blue Jays managed only five hits on Friday, falling to 3-12 over their last 15 games. Zack Greinke (6-2, 3.09 ERA) takes the mound for Arizona and Aaron Sanchez (3-6, 3.95 ERA) for Toronto. Greinke is coming off his shortest outing since Opening Day, giving up four runs and seven hits over just four innings while dealing with neck stiffness in a no-decision against the New York Mets (D'backs did win, 6-5). Speaking of that Opening day start (7 ERs allowed over just 3.2 innings), Greinke's outing vs the Mets ended a string of 11 consecutive quality starts since that Opening Day start. He is winless over his last three starts, after going 6-0 in his previous nine outings. Sanchez has been bothered by blister issues throughout his career and 2019 has been no different. He left his May 17th start after three innings and two starts later (May 27), a fingernail issue limited him to three innings. He was able to make it through six innings last time out at Colorado, taking the loss after giving up four runs on seven hits to fall to 0-5 over his last seven starts (team is 1-6). His last win came way back on April 27! Sanchez won his lone career start against the Diamondbacks with seven innings of one-run ball in 2016. Greinke is 3-4 with a 4.45 ERA In 11 games (nine starts) against Toronto in his career but he has not faced the Blue Jays since 2010. His current form makes him the MUCH better choice here vs Sanchez. Greinke takes on a punch-less Toronto offense that has been held to two runs or fewer 17 times in its last 33 contests and one which is 13-31 against right-handers (averaging only 3.6 RPG) on the season. That's a 70% "go-against." Good luck...Larry |
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06-07-19 | A's v. Rangers -110 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (AL West) is on the Tex Rangers at 8:05 ET. The Oakland Athletics earned a wild card spot in 2018 and were MLB's top money-earners (+$3,663). However, the A's continue their 10-game road trip this weekend in Texas just 31-31 (-$330) on the season, 11 games back of 43-21 Houston in the AL West. After losing back-to-back home series, Oakland began its road trip by winning two of three at the LA Angels. The A's hope to "keep it up" vs Texas, with Friday's contest marking the first of four games vs the Rangers. Texas made back-to-back World Series appearances in 2010 and 2011 (lost both), to begin a seven-year stretch in which the rangers made the playoffs in FIVE of seven seasons. However, Texas would go 78-84 in 2017 and then 67-95 in 2018. However, Texas has won 15 of its 21 contests and at 32-28, currently holds down the AL's second wild card spot, percentage points ahead of the Red Sox. Brett Anderson (6-4, 3.95 ERA) takes the mound for Oakland and Lance Lynn (7-4, 4.50 ERA) for Texas. Anderson is having a so-so season and left his last outing against Houston on Saturday with an oblique issue in the 6th inning. He's said to be OK but we'll see. He's 3-4 with a 4.82 ERA in 14 career games (11 starts / teams are 4-7) vs the Rangers. The veteran Lynn won 71 games for the Cards in a five-year span from 2012-17 (he missed the 2016 season) but his 2018 season, split between the Twins and Yanks, was a flop (10-10, 4.77 ERA). However, has "settled in" with Texas, having allowed three runs or less in NINE of his 12 starts this season. Lynn will attempt to redeem himself after being battered for eight runs and nine hits in 3.1 innings of an 11-5 loss at Oakland on April 23 (his lone career start vs Oakland) . I like his chances, as Lynn takes the mound with Texas having won all five of his home starts (Lynn has recorded wins in the last four). What's more, Texas checks 22-10 at home on the season (averaging a 'healthy' 5.81 RPG), Beating Baltimore last night gave the Rangers their FIFTH straight winning series at home! Lynn helps get Texas a win here in the first of four with Oakland, as the Rangers look to win a SIXTH straight home series. Good luck...Larry |
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06-07-19 | Yankees -120 v. Indians | 2-5 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the NY Yankees at 7:10 ET. The injury-ravaged New York Yankees snapped a three-game losing streak with a 6-2 victory at Toronto on Thursday. DJ LeMahieu went 3-for-4 with two RBI, extending his hitting streak to 11 games (his second of the season). LeMahieu is batting .320 with three HRs and 15 RBI during his streak and leads all of MLB by hitting .491 with runners in scoring position this season. Aaron Hicks added a three-run HR for New York, which is 39-22 (1 1/2 games ahead for Tampa Bay in the AL East). The Indians missed an opportunity to sweep the AL Central-leading Twins on Thursday, falling 5-4 after winning the first two games of the series. Cleveland is just 31-31 (10 1/2 games back of Minnesota) as it gets set to host the Yankees in this weekend's three-game set. Domingo German (9-1, 3.66 ERA) gets the nod for New York and will be opposed by Zach Plesac (0-1, 1.46 ERA). German will try to become the majors' first 10-game winner tonight but he has struggled in his last two starts, after a six-game winning streak (April 23-May 21). German has received no-decisions in his last two starts, allowing a combined 10 runs on 15 hits (including five HRs) in only 8.2 innings against Boston and at Kansas City (Yanks went 1-1). Plesac is a rookie and will be making his third career start. He was a hard-luck loser after yielding one run (solo HR) and four hits while striking out seven in seven innings of a 2-0 loss to the White Sox in Chicago this past Sunday. He received a no-decision in his big-league debut, allowing just one run on four hits in 5.1 innings of Cleveland's 7-5 victory at Boston on May 28. Should we be worried about German's last two outings? Maybe, but I'm willing to 'pull the trigger,' here. After all, despite his recent woes, he boasts a 1.11 WHIP and .215 batting average against with 71 strikeouts in 64 innings (just 18 walks) over 12 appearances. He earned a "W" in his lone relief stint and the Yanks are 9-2 in his 11 starts (5-1 on the road). The Yankees are 32-14 vs righties this season (averaging 5.7 RPG), while the Indians are just 21-23 against right-handed starters, averaging only 3.9 RPG. Easy choice, here. Good luck...Larry |
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06-06-19 | Nationals v. Padres -105 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the SD Padres at 10:10 ET. The Washington Nationals arrive in San Diego on Thursday to begin a four-game series. The 2019 season has not gone well for the Nats (just 28-33) but things are "looking up," as they arrive having won FOUR in a row and NINE of their last 11. The 31-31 Padres welcome Washington to San Diego but are trending in the opposite direction. The Padres begin this four-game series having dropped SEVEN of their last 10. however, San Diego but expects to have star rookie Fernando Tatis Jr. back in the lineup for Thursday’s contest. He has been out since April 28 with a strained left hamstring but was deemed ready to return after playing two minor-league rehab games for Double-A Amarillo earlier this week. The pitching matchup for the series opener will be Patrick Corbin (5-3, 3.46 ERA) vs Joey Lucchesi (4-3, 3.96 ERA). Corbin is a two-time All-Star and while he's posted solid numbers in 12 starts this season (1.14 WHIP, 64 hits allowed in 75.1 innings, an 83-22 KW ratio and ,228 BAA), the Nats are a modest 7-5 in his his starts. Lucchesi takes the mound coming off his first victory since April 21, allowing just one run through 6.1 innings. in a 5-2 win against Miami last Friday, While wins have been infrequent, Lucchesi owns a 2.97 ERA and a 28-55 KW ratio in five May starts starts (covering 30.1 innings). Corbin owns a lengthy history against the Padres, going 6-7 in 19 games (14 starts / teams are 7-7) with a 4.24 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP and a .267 OBA. He is 2-4 with a 3.97 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP and a .240 BAA in 10 games (seven starts) at Petco Park. He's been strong at home in six 2019 starts (2.32 ERA & 0.87 WHIP) but in six road starts, his ERA is 4.96 and his WHIP jumps to 1.50! As noted, Lucchesi is off a very good May (see above) and the Nats played a day game Wednesday at home, before traveling cross-country for the first of four games in San Diego, tonight. Good spot for the Nats to flop. That's my bet! Good luck...Larry |
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06-06-19 | Orioles v. Rangers -160 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
My 7* PERFECT STORM is on the Tex Rangers at 8:05 ET. The struggling Orioles and the surprising Rangers conclude a three-games series tonight in Arlington, after splitting the first two contests. Talk about "What a difference a day can make?' The Orioles survived a wild 12-11 contest in the series opener on Tuesday (Texas rallied for SIX runs in the 9th), before the Rangers eked out a 2-1 triumph in 12 innings on Wednesday. The rubber match of their three-game set goes tonight. David Hess (1-7, 7.36 ERA) will take the mound for Baltimore, while Ariel Jurado (2-2, 2.43 ERA) gets the nod for Texas. Hess takes the mound coming off his seventh consecutive losing decision, when he was battered by San Francisco for seven runs on six hits and three walks over four innings last Saturday (Giants won, 8-2). The 25-year-old has surrendered at least FIVE runs in each of his last four starts and has allowed fewer than three in only ONE of his 11 starts this season. BTW, that came in his FIRST of the year (April 1), when he worked 6.1 hit-less innings at Toronto en route to his lone victory of 2019. Jurado will be making his fourth start of the year and third in a row (this marks his 13th appearance in 2019). His last two starts have been "quality" ones, limiting Kansas City to two runs in six innings of a 6-2 win this past Friday, which followed a no-decision at the LAA on May 26, when he also allowed two runs in 6.1 innings. Jurado still has much to prove but Hess has proven to be a 'nightmare.' What's more, the Orioles own MLB's worst overall record (19-42) and the right-handed Jurdao will face a lineup which is just 12-26 vs righties this season, averaging only 4.0 RPG. As for Texas, the Rangers are 21-10 at home on the season (averaging a 'healthy' 5.87 RPG). Baltimore has not won a series since late April, while Texas Rangers looks to win its FIFTH straight series at home! Good luck...Larry |
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06-06-19 | Twins -105 v. Indians | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Year (AL Central) is on the Min Twins at 7:10 ET. The Cleveland Indians have taken the first two of this three-game series with the Twins and now look to complete a three-game sweep on Thursday night. The back-to-back victories have pushed the Indians over .500 (31-30) but they are still 9 1/2 games back of the 40-20 Twins in the AL Central. The Twins are MLB's highest-scoring team (5.93 RPG ) and share the major-league lead with 114 home runs but it's been Cleveland which has pounded out seven HRs in 5-2 and 9-7 wins. Francisco Lindor recorded his 10th career multi-homer performance in Tuesday's win and hit a solo shot in the eighth inning of Wednesday's victory. The All-Star shortstop is 16-for-38 with four HRs, nine RBI and 11 runs scored in his last 10 contests. Jose Berrios (7-2, 3.27 ERA) takes the mound for Minnesota and Trevor Bauer (4-5, 3.76 ERA) for Cleveland. Berrios walked away with a no-decision this past Friday, after allowing three runs on three hits with eight strikeouts in 6.2 innings at Tampa Bay. However, the Twins won that game 5-3, upping Minnesota's record to 10-2 in Berrios' 12 starts of 2019 (he owns the 3rd-best moneyline mark among starters at +$793). Trevor Bauer is having a HUGELY disappointing 2019 and enters this contest 0-4 in his last six starts (team is 1-5 and he owns a 5.50 ERA). Bauer is 6-7 with a 4.27 ERA in 20 career appearances (19 starts / team is 9-10) vs the Twins, while Berrios is 4-2 with a 4.00 ERA in eight career starts vs Cleveland (team is 5-3). Barrios has had a MUCH better season than Bauer and comes in MUCH better current form. The Twins (1st in all of MLB in runs, BA, OPS and HRs) have yet to lose three straight contests or be swept this season in a series. BOTH of those streaks are on the line and my bet is Berrios and Minnesota rise to the challenge. Good luck...Larry
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06-05-19 | Rockies +106 v. Cubs | 8-9 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the Col Rockies at 8:05 ET. The Chicago Cubs lost EIGHT of 10 games from May 23 thru Jun 2 but have opened the week with an 8-1 home win over the Angels and a 6-3 win last night over the Rockies, who came to Wrigley for a three-game series. Colorado arrived in Chicago on an EIGHT-game winning streak while averaging 7.0 RPG but were held to three runs on just six hits last night. The pitching matchup for Wednesday features German Marquez (6-2, 3.48 ERA) and Yu Darvish (2-3, 5.02 ERA). Starting pitching has not been a strength for the Colorado Rockies in the first two months of 2019. Kyle Freeland (last year's ace) struggled and was demoted to the minors to iron out his issues plus Tyler Anderson was ineffective until he was put on the injured list and will likely miss the rest of the season. Marquez has easily been Colorado's best pitcher. He's coming off a May in which he was 3-0 in six starts, as the Rockies were 5-1 when he took the mound. Chicago's Darvish made six starts in May but did not record a decision, despite allowing three runs or fewer in four of the outing. However, Darvish remains a HUGE disappointment. The Cubs signed him to a big deal in 2018, after his AWFUL performance in the 2017 World Series for the Dodgers. He was limited to just eight starts in 2018 (due to injury), finishing 1-3 with a 4.95 ERA. He's made 12 starts in 2019 but owns a 5.02 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. Marquez is building off his solid 2018 season (14-11, with Colorado going 19-14, +$571 in his starts) and enters this game in top form (see above). Darvish has been awful in six home starts during 2019, posting a 6.32 ERA and 1.66 WHIP plus has lost all THREE career starts vs Colorado, allowing 16 ERs on 17 hits and nine walks over just 13.1 innings (10.13 ERA). Cubs lose! Cubs lose! Good luck...Larry |
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06-05-19 | Giants v. Mets -127 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET. The calendar flipped to June on Saturday and the San Francisco Giants couldn't be happier. The Giants closed May by losing EIGHT of nine games, as their pitching staff was ravaged for 73 runs (note: the team's starting rotation posted a major league-worst 7.32 ERA in May). However, the Giants received back-to-back quality starts over the weekend in beating the Orioles 8-2 and 8-1. Bumgarner gave San Fran six innings last night (three ERs) and the bullpen added four scoreless ones, as the Giants used a SIX-run 10th inning to win 9-3 (Bruce Bochy became the second manager in franchise history to win 1,000 games). As for the Mets, New York's bullpen compiled an 11.65 ERA on its recently concluded road trip and was ripped for SIX runs on nine hits over 3.1 innings in the team's SIXTH loss in eight games. The middle contest of the three-game series will feature Tyler Beede (0-1, 7.82 ERA) taking on Jason Vargas (1-3, 4.46). Beede will be making just his seventh major league appearance and fifth start. He remains in search of the first win of his brief career but he is coming off his longest start with six strong innings of one-run ball in a no-decision at the Miami Marlins on Thursday (Giants won, 3-1). It marked the first time in four starts that the former first-round pick pitched beyond four innings. However, his only other start this season saw him hammered for EIGHT runs over 2.1 innings at Cincinnati back on May 3. Vargas signed with the Mets for two-years and $16 million plus an $8 million option for a third year in Feb of 2018 but he suffered a broken right hand in March of 2018 and missed the first month of the season. He was once again placed on the disabled list in July with a calf injury and finished a disappointing 7-9 (5.77 ERA in 20 starts (team was 8-12). Vargas was a hard-luck loser at the LA Dodgers on Thursday, despite turning in his best effort of the year in permitting one run and six hits over six innings. He hasn't won since his first start of 2019 but his recent outing marked the FIFTH time in his last six starts that he has allowed one run or less! San Francisco has outscored the opposition 25-6 during its three-game winning streak but each effort came against a right-handed starter. The Giants draw a lefty here and they check in at 6-11 on the season vs lefties, averaging only 3.5 RPG. Vargas may not be the pitchers he was for KC back in 2017 when he was 18-11 (Royals were 20-12 in his starts giving him the 6th-best moneyline mark of +$1,083) but he has pitched well lately (see above). Let's also note that he owns a 2.61 ERA in six career starts vs San Francisco, including winning both his starts against them the last time he faced them in 2017, posting an 0.64 ERA. Good luck...Larry |
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06-04-19 | Orioles v. Rangers -122 | 12-11 | Loss | -122 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Tex Rangers at 8:05 ET. The Texas Rangers made back-to-back World Series appearances in 2010 and 2011 (lost both), to begin a seven-year stretch in which Texas made the playoffs in FIVE of seven seasons. However, Texas would go 78-84 in 2017 and then 67-95 in 2018. However, the 30-27 Rangers would be a playoff team in the American League if the season ended now (would earn the second wild card spot)! The Rangers are getting quality starts and continue to turn things over late in games to right-hander Jesse Chavez, who ran his streak of scoreless appearances to 14 straight with a scoreless ninth inning Sunday. Meanwhile, the 18-41 Orioles own the worst record in baseball and are losers of 12 of the last 15 after being outscored by the punchless Giants 16-3 in setbacks on Saturday and Sunday. Dylan Bundy (2-6, 4.58 ERA) will get the start for Baltimore, opposed by Drew Smyly (1-3, 6.98 ERA) of Texas. Bundy has only two wins in 11 starts this season (team is just 3-8) and takes the mound having allowed three or fewer runs in each of his last FIVE starts. He held the Tigers to three runs on seven hits and did not walk a batter while striking out eight in seven innings but got no support in a 3-0 setback. Smyly is trying to get in sync with the rest of the staff but was ripped for seven runs on eight hits in five innings at Seattle on Wednesday but escaped without a decision in a game Texas won 8-7. However, the team used an "opener" in that game, after the team had won each of his previous "regular" starts, with Smyly owning a respectable 3.86 ERA in those outings. Smyly spent two seasons in the AL East with the Tampa Bay Rays and is 4-1 with a 3.72 ERA in 10 games (seven starts / team are an impressive 6-1) against Baltimore. Texas suffered its lone home series loss in a two-game set against Pittsburgh on April 31 and May 1. It is 20-9 in its home park, averaging 5.83 RPG. The Rangers began their 11-game homestand by taking three of four from the Kansas City Royals over the weekend behind a pitching staff that surrendered a total of five runs in the three victories. Not sure we can expect Smyly to be quite that good but the Orioles, like the 19-40 Royals, are an awful team. Good luck...Larry |
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06-04-19 | Giants +118 v. Mets | 9-3 | Win | 118 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the SF Giants at 7:10 ET. The Giants open a three-game series with the Mets at Citi Field on Tuesday with a 24-34 record. That already leaves them 16 1/2 games back of the hated-Dodgers in the NL West. However, San Francisco won Saturday and Sunday at home vs the Orioles, so manager Bruce Bochy is not only hoping his team can earn its first three-game winning streak since April 21-24 but a victory would give Bochy his 1,000th win as Giants manger (only Hall of Famer John McGraw, with a modest 2,583 victories, has won more games with the franchise). The Mets return home following a 2-5 road trip that dropped the team to 4-17 in its last 21 contests away from Citi Field. However, the good news is, the Mets will play their next 12 games without having to leave the city (10 home games, where they are 15-9, and two in the Bronx against the Yankees). Madison Bumgarner (3-5, 4.01 ERA) will take the mound for the Giants and Noah Syndergaard (3-4, 4.90 ERA) for the Mets. A pitching duel between Madison Bumgarner and Noah Syndergaard was at one time "worth the price of admission" but each former All-Star will be seeking their fourth win of the season. The Giants lost FIVE of Bumgarner's first six starts of 2019 but they then won his first four starts of May. However, despite Bumgarner allowing just two ERs over six innings each of of his last two outings, the Gaints lost both games. Syndergaard is winless in his last three trips to the mound, after allowing three runs and seven hits over six innings at the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday (LA won 9-8). Heading into this game, Syndergaard has allowed four ERs or more in SEVEN of his 12 starts in 2019.He does own a 77-17 KW ratio but he's allowed 79 hits in 75.1 innings plus owns a 4.90 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and .273 BAA. San Francisco's starting rotation has been a train wreck, posting a major league-worst 7.32 ERA in May, before receiving back-to-back quality starts over the weekend while beating the MLB-worst Orioles. However, Bumgarner's history vs the Mets is "something special, " as including him tossing a shutout to lift the Giants past the Mets in the 2016 National League wild-card game, Bumgarner is 7-0 in eight career starts vs New York (Giants are 7-1, an 88% winning mark). He owns a 6-0 regular season mark (1.69 ERA) against the Mets, including winning all five outings at Cti Field with a microscopic 0.73 ERA. Enough said! Good luck...Larry |
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06-02-19 | Cubs +101 v. Cardinals | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Chi Cubs at 2:15 ET. The St Louis Cardinals managed just five hits on Friday, but TWO of them came in the bottom of the 10th as Kolten Wong doubled and scored on Matt Carpenter’s walk-off single. The 2-1 victory gave St Louis its winning streak (Cards won 5-3 at Philly on Thursday) since putting together FIVE straight wins from April 27 thru May 1. Last night, the Cardinals waited out a rain delay of over three hours before scoring three times in the sixth inning en route to a 7-4 win. St Louis now owns its first three-game winning streak in over a month and can complete its first series sweep since April 22-24 when the Cards wrap up a three-game set against the visiting Chicago Cubs on Sunday. Saturday's defeat was Chicago's SEVENTH in nine games, drooping the 31-25 Cubs into second place in the NL Central for the first time in nearly a month (Brewers moved a half-game ahead of them with a 12-10 win in 13 innings on Saturday at Pittsburgh). A pair of veterans square off in the series finale, with Cole Hamels (4-1, 4.02 ERA) taking the mound for the Cubs and Adam Wainwright (4-5, 4.94 ERA) for the Cards. Hamels has completed just four innings in each of his last two starts, while giving up nine runs on 16 hits in those contests (10.13 ERA). He gave up six runs on seven hits in four innings his last time out against the Houston Astros, suffering his first loss of 2019 (11 starts), 6-5. Wainwright recorded a season-high 10 strikeouts this past Tuesday at Philadelphia but was saddled with the loss after giving up four runs in six innings (Phils won ). Wainwright was limited to just eight starts in 2018 due to various injuries but this marks his 12th start of 2019.. Wainwright is 15-11 with a 4.16 ERA in 46 appearances (37 starts) against the Cubs (Cards are 22-15 in those starts). He has 206 strikeouts in 233.2 innings, which marks his highest such totals against any opponent. In fact, the only team he has more wins against is the Milwaukee Brewers (16). However, while the 37-year-old Wainwright seems healthy this year, he enters this game with a 6.33 ERA in five May starts. The Cards' Saturday win ended an eight-series winless stretch (had been 0-7-1 since taking three of four at Washington from Apr 29-May 2) but a sweep may be too much to ask. Hamels may be just 5-5 in 15 career starts vs the Cubs (teams are 9-6) but he owns an excellent 2.51 ERA in those starts. Cubs win "with room to spare!' Good luck...Larry |
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06-01-19 | Cubs +124 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Chi Cubs at 7:15 ET. The St Louis Cardinals managed just five hits on Friday, but TWO of them came in the bottom of the 10th as Kolten Wong doubled and scored on Matt Carpenter’s walk-off single. The 2-1 victory gave St Louis has a winning streak (cards won 5-3 at Philly on Thursday) for the first time since putting together FIVE straight wins from April 27 thru May 1. The 31-24 Cubs are barely hanging on to first place by one-half game in the NL Central with SIX losses in their last eight contests, after going 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position on Friday. The long-time rivals meet again Saturday night, with Jose Quintana (4-4, 3.73 ERA) squaring off against Jack Flaherty (4-3, 3.77 ERA). Quintana allowed season highs of six runs (five earned) and 12 hits across 5.1 innings last Sunday in a 10-2 loss against Cincinnati. That outing marked his 10th start of the season. He allowed eight ERs (over just three innings) in his first start of 2019 but in the eight starts since that opener, was 4-2 (team was 6-2), posting a 2.32 ERA over 50.1 innings. So it's fair to ask, what happened last Sunday? Flaherty was 8-9 (3.34 ERA) over 28 starts in his rookie season (2018). He enters this contest having strung together three straight quality starts, including last Sunday when he limited Atlanta to three hits over six scoreless innings with seven strikeouts in a no-decision (Cards lost 4-3 in 10 innings). The 23-year-old is pitching well, allowing three or fewer ERs in six straight outings, plus owns 65 strikeouts over 59.2 innings on the season. Even with back-to-back wins to end the month, the Cards struggled to an 8-18 record in May. The Cardinals opened May at 10 games over .500 but I guess it's not all bad news that at 28-28 as June opens, they are only 3 1/2 games back of the first-place Cubs. The Cards are trying to end an eight-series winless stretch (0-7-1 since taking three of four at Washington from Apr 29-May 2) with a Saturday (or Sunday) win. I won't "jump ahead" to Sunday but will say a win does NOT come tonight for the Cards. Cubs win! Cubs win! Good luck...Larry |
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06-01-19 | Nationals v. Reds -129 | 5-2 | Loss | -129 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Cin Reds at 4:10 ET. The Washington Nationals have been a huge nemesis for the Cincinnati Reds over the past three years, as Friday's 9-3 Cincinnati win gave the Reds just a 4-16 record in their last 20 meetings with the Nationals.However, there are reasons to think the Reds could turn things around vs the Nats. After all, Washington has been one of MLB’s biggest disappointments through the first two months of the season with 24-33 record, giving them MLB's worst moneyline mark at -$1,837. As for the Reds, after a 5-12 start, they've gone a more than respectable 22-18. Erick Fedde (1-0, 2.18 ERA) takes the mound for Washington and former-Nat Tanner Roark (4-3, 3.20 ERA) for Cincy. Feede started the season by making five appearances in relief but has now turned in a pair of solid starts, picking up the win against Miami on Sunday by blanking the Marlins on four hits over five innings. Washington's first-round pick in the 2014 draft, he also went five innings in a no-decision against the New York Mets in his previous turn, giving up one run on four hits. Fedde will be facing Cincinnati for the first time. Roark is in his first season in Cincinnati, after spending the past six years with the Washington Nationals. Roark halted a two-start losing streak at the Chicago Cubs his last time out, striking out season-high nine, while permitting six hits over five scoreless innings to earn a 10-2 win. Roark enters this contest having allowed three or fewer runs in 10 of his 11 starts in 2019. I'll give Fedde his due for two solid starts but he entered this season just 2-5 with a 6.44 ERA in 14 career starts. A HUGE issue for the Nats is that Fedde has lasted just five innings in each of his starts, meaning the Nats will likely need at least FOUR innings from their bullpen, which owns a MLB-worst W-ERA of 7.06! As for Roark, after posting a 4.08 ERA and a .289 BAA in April, he went 3-2 with a 2.28 ERA over five starts in May, holding opponents to a .233 BAA. This marks his first-ever start against his former team and I'll back Roark and the ever-improving Reds. Good luck...Larry |
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06-01-19 | Royals v. Rangers -159 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
My 7* Situational Stunner is on the Tex Rangers at 4:05 ET. The Rangers evened their series with the Royals on Friday with a 6-2 victory. Joey Gallo hit his first career grand slam to highlight a six-run sixth inning as Texas won for the third time in four games, after losing three in a row. The Royals lost for the SEVENTH time in nine games to fall to 19-38 (only the 18-39 Orioles own a worse record). The 28-27 Rangers have won EIGHT of their last 10 home games as they host KC in this third contest of a four-game series on Saturday night. Homer Bailey (4-5, 5.79 ERA) gets the nod for KC and Lance Lynn (6-4, 4.66 ERA) for Texas. Bailey is coming off a 1-14 (6.09 ERA) season in 2018, where the Reds went 1-19 in his starts (lost a MLB-high $1,748 vs the moneyline). Bailey allowed a run and three hits over 4.1 innings in a no-decision at the Chicago White Sox on Monday (KC lost 2-1). However, it was a solid rebound after back-to-back losses in which he gave up a total of 11 runs on 12 hits (including three HRs) in just six innings.Bailey's lone career start vs Texas came back on May 16, when he allowed six runs (five earned) over 4.1 innings of a 16-1 loss. The veteran Lynn has completed at least six innings in six consecutive starts, allowing three runs or less in the last four. He has 21 strikeouts over 13 innings in his last two outings, including 10 in a six-inning effort at Seattle his last time out. Lynn won 71 games for the Cards in a five-year span from 2012-17 (he missed the 2016 season) but his 2018 season, split between the Twins and Yanks, was a flop (10-10, 4.77 ERA). However, has "settled in" with Texas, having allowed two runs or less in SEVEN of his 11 starts. Bailey may own two career no-hitters but he's 71-82 in his career, with a 4.61 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. In contrast, Lynn' s having a 'bounce-back" season and the righty will face a KC team that is just 21-57 on the road vs right-handers since the start of 2018, including 5-17 in 2019, a 77% "go-against." Good luck...Larry |
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05-31-19 | Phillies v. Dodgers -157 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
My 7* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Dodgers at 10:10 ET. Bryce Harper is heating up (he has 11 extra-base hits and 16 RBIs over his last 13 contests) and as the Phillis get set to open a three-game series in LA against the Dodgers, Philadelphia has won NINE of its last 13 to move three games ahead of the Atlanta Braves in the NL East with a 33-23 record. Meanwhile, the red-hot LA Dodgers (winners of 12 of their last 15 games) have taken a commanding lead in the NL West with a 38-19 record (lead the Padres by 8 1/2 games). Philadelphia is 10 games over .500 and has won or split NINE of its last 10 series (7-1-2), while the Dodgers lead all of MLB in victories (38) and lead the NL in runs scored (308 / 5.04 RPG). Taking the mound Friday night will be Jake Arrieta (5-4, 3.60 ERA) and Kenta Maeda (6-2, 3.67 ERA). Arrieta recorded his first win since April 27 against Milwaukee on Saturday, allowing two runs with eight strikeouts and one walk over eight innings of a 7-2 win. His previous start was also solid (6 IP / 8 hits / 1 ERs in a no-decision) but the Phillies had lost FOUR of his five prior to that, as the 2015 NL Cy Young Award winner allowed 18 ERs in 28 innings over that span, posting a 5.79 ERA. Arrieta is is 4-4 with a 3.23 ERA in nine career starts vs the Dodgers (teams are 4-5). Maeda came off the injured list this past Saturday and won his THIRD straight start by allowing three runs over five innings in a 11-7 victory over Pittsburgh. Maedea takes the mound tonight having allowed just those three ERs over his three straight wins, posting a 1.53 ERA with a 22-2 KW ratio. He is 3-1 with a 4.55 ERA in six starts vs the Phillies (Dodgers are 4-2). The Phillies are in the midst of a 23-game stretch against the Dodgers, the NL Central-leading Chicago Cubs, the wild card-leading Milwaukee Brewers as well as three teams who will all enter Friday within a game of .500, the Colorado Rockies, St Louis Cardinals and San Diego Padres. Philly is 10-7 after 17 games of that stretch but will be hard-pressed to win a game in LA. The Dodgers lead all of MLB this season with a 22-7 home record, where they average 5.66 RPG. Friday's starter, Kenta Maeda, owns a 5.64 ERA in six road outings in 2019 but in four home starts is 4-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. Good enough for me to play LA. Good luck...Larry |
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05-31-19 | Astros v. A's +110 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Oak A's at 10:07 ET. The Houston Astros opened the 2019 season by going 2-5 on a seven-game road trip. However, the Astros rebounded with a 10-game winning streak. On the morning of May 8th, Houston sat 21-15 but then ripped off a second 10-game winning streak in 2019 during a 12-1 stretch over 13 games. Houston is just 4-4 over its last eight as it opens a three-game series in Oakland but does own a 7 1/2-game lead over the Athletics. Oakland climbed in the AL West standings with a 10-game winning streak from May 16-27 but enters this series having lost back-to-back games to the LA Angels, including a 12-7 loss in 11 innings on Wednesday. Tonight's pitching matchup features a Brad Peacock (5-2, 3.19 ERA) and Mike Fiers (4-3, 5.00 ERA). Peacock has been dominating of late, allowing just one run and 12 hits across 23 innings over his last four starts. He's 3-0 (team is 4-0) in that stretch, posting an 0.39 ERA with a KW ratio of 32-6. Peacock starred in the team's run to a 2017 World Series title (13-2 with a 3.00 ERA in 34 appearances, including 21 starts) but last year pitched out of the bullpen in 60 of 61 appearances. He's back in the rotation for 2019 (nine of 11 appearances have been starts) and his recent form bodes well. Fiers was 17-9 in 2018 (Det & Oak), finishing as MLB's top money-earner (21-9 in starts, +$1,879). However, 2019 has NOT gone as well, as he entered his no-hitter back on May 7 with a 6.81 ERA. However, Fiers' turnaround began in the previous two starts to that gem. He enters tonight's contest having allowed three ERs or less in each of his last SIX starts (2.84 ERA). If Oakland wants to get back in the race in the AL West, a strong performance this weekend against Astros would help. Peacock does NOT seem vulnerable right now but I'm not completely sold on him. As for Fiers, he's made just five home starts in 2019 (DON'T count a 'home game' in Japan against the Mariners), going 4-1. In the four wins, he's allowed just three ERs on 11 hits over 27 innings (1.00 ERA). The A's are 11-4 their last 15 at home (even after B2B losses to the LAA) and unlike last year, when Houston went a MLB-best 57-24 on the road, the Astros are a modest 15-12 away from home in 2019. Good luck...Larry |
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05-31-19 | Twins +113 v. Rays | Top | 5-3 | Win | 113 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* AL Pitching Mismatch of the Month is on the Min Twins at 7:10 ET. The Minnesota Twins are MLB's highest-scoring team but it was the Tampa Bay bats which dominated Thursday's contest (the first of a four-game series), as the Rays won 14-3. The Rays jumped to an 11-0 lead after four innings and pounded out 16 hits. Austin Meadows extended his hitting streak to seven games by going 3-for-4, as Tampa Bay made it SEVEN wins in a row, closing within a half-game of the New York Yankees atop the AL East. Minnesota lost for only the THIRD time in 15 games but still owns the MLB's best record (37-18), as well as a 9 1/2-game lead in the AL Central. Jose Berrios (7-2, 3.20 ERA) gets the nod Friday for Minnesota and he'll be opposed by Tamp Bay's Ryne Stanek (0-1, 2.97 ERA), one of the team's designated "openers." Berrios is one of THREE Minnesota pitchers with seven wins, after picking up the victory his last time out against the Chicago White Sox. He allowed four runs (just one earned) on nine hits over 6.2 innings, as the Twins beat the White Sox 11-4. Berrios has been reached for 13 runs (10 earned) over his last three starts (5.29 ERA) but the Twins have won two of them. They are 9-2 in his 11 starts in 2019, giving him the 5th-best moneyline mark among starters (+$671). Stanek allowed one hit over two scoreless innings against Toronto last Tuesday, marking the 10th time in his last 12 appearances while serving as Tampa Bay's opener that he has not surrendered a run. The former first-round pick has been superb in 12 appearances at Tropicana Field, sporting a 0.50 ERA (he owns a 6.57 road ERA) while holding opposition to a .161 batting average. I will note that the Rays are 11-4 with Stanek "opening" but I'm still not convinced that the record represents any real pattern (we'll by season's end how it works out). After all, he "opened" 29 times in 2018, with the Rays going 15-14 (-$14)! Yes, Berrios has struggled in his career against Tampa Bay, compiling a 0-2 record and 8.44 ERA in three career starts (team is 0-3) but Tampa Bay's current roster is batting a collective .211 against Berrios, plus he will be pitching on SIX days' rest. Expect Minnesota's lineup to "get back to business. The Twins lead all of MLB in runs scored (5.95 per), OPS (.851) and HRs (106), while they rank second in team BA (.272). In contrast, expect the Tampa bats 'cool off' after a 16-hit, 14-run effort. Good luck...Larry |
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05-29-19 | Diamondbacks -115 v. Rockies | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Arz D'backs at 8:40 ET. The Arizona Diamondbacks entered the Memorial Day on a five-game losing streak but rediscovered their offense at Oracle Park against the San Francisco Giants, winning 18-2 on Friday, 10-4 on Saturday and 6-2 on Sunday. They opened a four-game series with the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on Memorial Day at 28-25. The Rockies entered the series at 24-27, still looking to overcome a 3-12 start. However, Colorado has taken the first two of this four-game set, winning 4-3 in 11 innings on Monday and 6-2 last night, The Rockies are now 4-1 on their 10-game homestand and have won eight of their last 11 at Coors Field Robbie Ray (4-1, 3.26 ERA) will take the mound for the D'backs and Jeff Hoffman (0-1, 8.10 ERA) for the Rockies. Ray may not be the dominant pitcher he was in 2017 (15-5 with a 2.89 ERA) but he is unbeaten in his last NINE trips to the mound. He's posted a modest four wins in that span (Arizona is 6-3) but note that the D'bcks have won FIVE of his last six starts, with Ray posting a very good ERA of 2.64. He was victorious at Coors Field on May 3, when he gave up five runs - one earned - and six hits over 5.2 innings but Ray is just 4-4 with a 5.43 ERA in 13 career starts against Colorado (teams are 5-8). As for Hoffman, he will be making his third start of the season and only the 26th of his career. He was called up Friday from Triple-A Albuquerque to face the Baltimore Orioles. He lasted only five innings, giving up five runs on seven hits (including two HRs) but was rescued from a loss by a late Colorado rally. Trusting Hoffman here would be a hard thing to do, as he's 0-2 with a 10.38 ERA in four career appearances (two starts / 14.03 ERA in those starts) against the Diamondbacks. Ray is coming on and seems headed for a solid season and I will add that he's pitched fairly well at Coors Field, posting a 3.69 ERA in six starts. Colorado is no longer a feared team at Coors, as even after an 8-3 run at home, the Rockies are just 13-12 (-$71) in their home park in 2019. With Hoffman on the mound, the Rockies deserve to be the underdog and I'm backing Ray. Good luck...Larry |
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05-29-19 | Nationals v. Braves -159 | 14-4 | Loss | -159 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
My 7* Late-Breaker is on the Atl Braves at 7:20 ET. The Washington Nationals have been one of MLB’s biggest disappointments through the first two months of the season. They are currently are 23-32, giving them MLB's worst moneyline mark at -$1,872 (almost $700 worse than any other team!). However, Tuesday’s 5-4 victory gives them FOUR wins in their last five games. LF Juan Soto extended his hitting streak to 12 games on Tuesday and is batting .444 with nine runs scored and 11 RBI in that span. Atlanta lost for just the fifth time in its past 17 games, after an uncharacteristically shaky outing from one of its starters. Max Fried gave up four runs on nine hits for the Braves, who began Tuesday sporting a 2.80 starters ERA in May. Speaking of starters, Anibal Sanchez (0-6, 5.10 ERA) takes the mound for Washington and Kevin Gausman (2-3, 4.33 ERA) for Atlanta. Sanchez was a pleasant surprise last season after signing with Atlanta during spring training, going 7-6 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. However, he's struggled in 2019, after signing a two-year deal in the off-season. Sanchez had lost five consecutive outings until leaving in the second inning on May 16 against the New York Mets due to a hamstring injury (Nats would win, 7-6). He's yet to win through nine starts (team is 3-6) and will be activated from the injured list after missing two starts with that left hamstring injury. Gausman steps to the mound for Atlanta, He was just 5-8 (4.43 ERA) in 21 starts for Baltimore last season (Orioles were 6-15, -$967 in his 21 starts) but after getting 'rescued' by the Braves, went 5-3 (2.87 ERA) in 10 starts (Atlanta went 7-3). He's won just once in five May starts but he's allowed no more than three ERs in any outing this month, while holding opponents to a .224 batting average and 15 hits in 18 innings over his last three starts (3.00 ERA and the team is 3-0!). Sanchez is is 5-11 with a 4.99 ERA in 18 career starts against Atlanta (teams are 5-13), while Gausman is 4-1 with a 4.42 ERA in six career stats vs Washington (teams are 4-2). of greater importance is current form. Gausman has pitched well in May (see above) plus his home ERA is 3.82 (compared to 5.01 on the road) plus he owns an outstanding home WHIP of 0.98. In contrast, Sanchez, who not only hasn't pitched in two weeks, is 0-5 in five road starts in 2019, posting a 5.40 ERA and 1.84 WHIP. Price is a 'little high" but it's worth playing. Good luck...Larry
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05-28-19 | Nationals v. Braves -108 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (NL East) is on the Atl Braves at 7:20 ET. The Washington Nationals dropped the series finale at home against Miami 3-2 on Memorial Day but did take the first three against the NL's worst team. However, the Nationals had dropped SIX of seven entering the series with Miami and will head to Atlanta for a two-game series at just 22-32, The Braves have won 12 of their last 16 contests and sit 30-24, eight games ahead of the Nationals in the NL East standings. Tonight's pitching matchup will feature Stephen Strasburg (4-3, 3.25 ERA) vs. Braves LH Max Fried (7-2, 2.88 ERA). Strasburg owns an 0.99 WHIP (it would be a career-best) plus is averaging 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings. However, the team is just 5-6 (-$299) in his 11 starts. He owns a 2.62 ERA in five May starts while holding opponents to a .212 batting average and owns a 39-8 KW ratio but is just 2-2 (team is 2-3). Meanwhile, Fried has emerged as a potential All-Star through the first two months of the season. He came out of the bullpen for his first two appearances of 2019 but has made 10 consecutive starts. He's posted a 2.96 ERA in those 10 starts since joining the rotation (he's 7-2 and the team 7-3), with 51 strikeouts, 11 walks and a 1.12 WHIP over 54.2 innings. He enters the week tied for the NL lead in wins while ranking sixth in ERA and 11th in WHIP (1.12). Strasburg has a very mediocre history against Atlanta, going 11-11 with a 4.07 ERA over 30 career starts (Nats are 14-16). Washington is just 9-17 on the road in 2019 and face a tough lefty in Fried. The Nats are 5-8 vs left-handers so far, including 1-5 on the road, averaging 3.65 RPG. That's after going 4-12 vs lefties on the road in night games last season, averaging only 2.7 RPG. Atlanta is the play. Good luck..Larry |
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05-28-19 | Giants +106 v. Marlins | 3-11 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
My 9* 'Battle for the NL Basement' is on the SF Giants at 7:10 ET. The San Francisco Giants have lost five in a row, dropping a season-worst 10 games under .500 at 22-32. The Giants begin an 11-day, nine-game swing on Tuesday with the opener of a three-game series versus the Miami Marlins, who own an NL-worst 17-34 record. "We've got to huddle up here," Giants manager Bruce Bochy said on the heels of Sunday's 6-2 setback to Arizona. "(Monday's day off) will give them a chance to wash this one off. This road trip I'm hoping brings them together and gets us back to playing the kind of ball we need to play." As for Miami, the Marlins avoided a four-game sweep in Washington on Monday, with a come-from-behind 3-2 win over Nats. Jeff Samardzija (2-3, 3.27 ERA) and Trevor Richards (1-5, 4.14 ERA) will take the ball in the first of three games in the series. Samardzija lost his second straight start after allowing six runs (none earned) on four hits in six innings of a 9-2 setback to Atlanta on Wednesday. However, despite his last win coming back on April 23, the 34-year-old has been the Giants' best pitcher. He's allowed three ERs or less in EIGHT of them, allowing four ERs in the other two. Richards opened the 2019 season going 0-5 through his first eight starts (Marlins were 0-8). However, he answered his first win of the season (8-6 over the Mets on May 17) with a strong showing this past Thursday, allowing just one run in 5.2 innings before exiting with a no-decision at Detroit (Marlins won 5-2). In this "meeting of losers," I'm siding with the Gianst and Samardzija. The Marlins are a woeful 12-26 vs righties in 2019, averaging a pathetic 2.9 RPG. Samardzija owns a 5-2 record with a 3.62 ERA in 18 career appearances (nine starts) against the Marlins and as noted above, he's been San Francisco most consistent pitcher in 2019. Giants get the "W." Good luck...Larry |
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05-28-19 | Pirates +105 v. Reds | 6-11 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
My 9* Pitching Mismatch is on the Pit Pirtaes at 6:40 ET. The Pittsburgh Pirates halted a three-game slide by winning the opener of Monday's doubleheader against the Reds (their fourth straight road victory) but got routed 8-1 in the nightcap. The Pirates again take on the Reds in Cincinnati tonight, for the third contest of their four-game series. Cincy's doubleheader split continued the team's current trend of alternating wins and losses that has been in effect over their last 11 games. Tonight's pitching matchup will feature Jordan Lyles (5-1, 2.81 ERA) and Lucas Sims (no record in 2019). Lyles has been 're-born' in Pittsburgh this season with the Pirates. He opened MLB 2019 with a career record of 31-52 (5.28 ERA). Lyles allowed a season-high six runs on seven hits in 5.2 innings against Colorado in his last outing but the Pirates exploded for 14 runs, as Lyles earned his third straight win. However, that effort was an outlier, as he's allowed two ERs or less in SEVEN of his nine starts this season, with Pittsburgh going 8-1. His moneyline mark of +$880, leads all starters. In contrast, Lucas Sims is being brought up from Triple-A Louisville to make his 11th major-league start and first since 2017 with Atlanta. He was a first-round pick of the Braves in the 2012 draft and was acquired by the Reds in July of 2018 as part of a package for Adam Duvall. He allowed four runs over 5.1 innings in three relief appearances for the Reds last year. Sims has made nine starts for Louisville this year, going 3-0 with a 4.06 ERA. One has to start trusting Lyles these days plus there is no reason to trust Sims, who is 3-6 with a 6.01 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 23 career appearances (10 starts). Pirates get the cash! Good luck...Larry |
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05-27-19 | Rangers +111 v. Mariners | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Tex Rangers at 9:10 ET. The Texas Rangers had won five straight and EIGHT of nine before suffering back-to-back losses against the Los Angeles Angels. Texas allowed two runs in the bottom of the 9th on Saturday to lose 3-2 and then on Sunday, built a four-run lead before allowing SIX runs in the seventh inning to another one-run decision, 7-6. The Rangers move on to Seattle to open a three-game series against the Mariners on Memorial Day. The Mariners return home after going 0-6 in road trip against the Rangers and A's. Sunday's 7-1 loss was Seattle's SIXTH consecutive defeat, its ninth in 10 contests and 13th in 16 outings. Anyone remember that Seattle opened the 2019 season 13-2? Lance Lynn (6-3, 4.67 ERA) and Tommy Milone (0-1, 3.60 ERA) square off in Monday's opener. Lynn won 71 games for the Cards in a five-year span from 2012-17 (he missed the 2016 season) but his 2018 season, split between the Twins and Yanks, was a flop (10-10, 4.77 ERA). However, has "settled in" with Texas, having allowed two runs or less in SIX of his 10 starts. The Rangers are 7-3 in his 10 starts and Lynn has pitched better on the road (3.86 ERA) than at home (5.92). Milone was 13-10 and 12-9 for Oakland in 2012 and 2013 but over the last six seasons, pitching for SIX different teams, he's just 20-19. Milone began the 2019 season with Triple-A Tacoma and went 4-2 with one shutout and a 3.83 ERA in eight starts and one relief appearance. He made his season debut (opposite Lynn) this past Tuesday and suffered the loss despite allowing only two runs on three hits over five innings. Typically, I like to play the "loser" in these quick "re-hooks" but Milone hasn't done ANYTHING in going on SIX years. As for Lynn, he's 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA against Seattle, with two of those wins coming in 2019. He allowed two runs on five hits while registering a season-high 11 strikeouts over seven innings in a 5-3 home victory last Tuesday. He also beat the Mariners 14-1 in Seattle back on April 28, a start which began a stretch during which Lynn has given up three runs or fewer four times while winning FOUR of five starts. Good luck...Larry |
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05-27-19 | Brewers +109 v. Twins | 5-4 | Win | 109 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Mil Brewers at 7:10 ET. The Minnesota Twins open a two-game interleague series with the Milwaukee Brewers, owners of the best record in MLB (36-16) and have outscored opponents by 111 runs. The Twins lead the majors in runs scored at 315 (6.06 RPG) and HRs (104), Their 7-0 victory on Sunday over the Chicago White Sox was their SIXTH straight and increased their lead in the AL Central to 10 games. The Twins look for a 12th time in 13 games when they host the Brewers, who avoided a three-game sweep with a 9-1 victory over Philadelphia on Sunday. Milwaukee checks in at 30-24, 1 1/2 games back of the Cubs in the NL Central. Gio Gonzalez (2-1, 2.39 ERA) gets the ball for the Brewers and Michael Pineda (4-3, 5.43 ERA) for the Twins. Gonzalez has pitched well in his five starts since signing with Milwaukee as a free agent. He suffered his first defeat of the season last time out, allowing three runs on three hits and as many walks in five innings against Cincinnati (Reds won 3-0). The lefty had yielded a total of just four runs in his first four starts, although I should note that he has yet to complete six innings this year. Pineda comes in off three straight quality starts, winning his last two. I'm just not sure about Pineda, who has great stuff but just a 44-44 career record (4.15 ERA). Despite pitching for the team with MLB's best record, the Twins are just 5-5 in his starts, as he's posted a 5.43 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and .276 BAA. The Twins are 31-11 this season against righties but just 5-5 vs lefties. I expect Gonzalez to give them trouble and will "take the price" with Milwaukee. Good luck...Larry |
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05-27-19 | Diamondbacks +103 v. Rockies | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Arz D'backs at 3:10 ET. The Arizona Diamondbacks travel to Coors Field for a four-game series with the Colorado Rockies. The 28-25 D'backs come off a three-game sweep of the Giants in San Francisco, which ended a five-game losing streak. Sunday's 8-7 walk-off win over Baltimore helped, but the Rockies are still looking to overcome a 3-12 start (they sit just 24-27). Both teams are trying to stay in the NL West race but the 35-18 Dodgers lead Arizona by seven games and Colorado by 10 games.. Zach Greinke (6-2, 2.89 ERA) takes the mound for Arizona and John Gray (4-4, 4.62 ERA) for Colorado. Greinke has been a workhorse for the Diamondbacks since lasting just 3.2 innings in the team's season opener against the LA Dodgers, allowing seven ERs. He has pitched at least six innings in 10 consecutive starts and has lasted into the eighth inning twice. During that span, he's 6-1 (team is 7-3), posting a 2.12 ERA. Gray got off to a poor start in 2019 (0-3, 5.28 ERA) but he has been Colorado's best starter behind German Marquez, as of late. He is coming off a seven-inning win at Pittsburgh on Wednesday night (9-3), making him 4-1 with a 4.39 ERA over his last seven starts (team is 5-2). However, Gray is no match for Greinke, who would have two more wins if not for blown saves by the Arizona bullpen. What's more, Greinke has faced the Rockies more than any other team (31 times in the regular season), going 12-6 with a 3.78 ERA in the regular season. He's been even better at Coors Field, going 5-1 in 12 starts. Meanwhile, Gray is 2-3 with a 5.40 ERA in seven starts vs Arizona, including 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in four career starts against them here at Coors field. Gray takes the mound against an Arizona lineup which just scored 34 runs on 44 hits in a three-game sweep at San Francisco. Look out below! Good luck...Larry |
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05-26-19 | Braves +140 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-3 | Win | 140 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* ESPN Game of the Month is on the Atl Braves at 7:05 ET. The Cards trailed 3-2 in the eighth inning last night, looking to lose for the 16th time in their last 21 games. However, a four0run uprising gave them the 6-3 win. Jedd Gyorko, who entered Saturday's contest hitting just .167 with only seven singles and two RBI, capped the rally with a three-run HR. The Braves had entered Saturday’s contest 24-2 when leading after seven innings this season (you can't make this stuff up). The Cardinals have gone 0-5-1 in their last six series, their longest such winless streak since 2017, but now have a chance to win the series in tonight's rubber match Taking the mound Sunday night will be Julio Teheran (3-4, 3.67 ERA) and Jack Flaherty (4-3, 4.19 ERA). Teheran struggled in April, going 2-3 with a 5.35 ERA but takes the mound for his fifth start in May, having allowed juts two ERs on 10 hits over 22.2 innings of his first four starts this month (0.79 ERA and .132 BAA). Flaherty started poorly in 2019 as well, allowing four or more earned ERs in three of his first five starts but owns a 3.34 ERA while holding opponents to a .188 batting average over his last five outings (note: team is just 2-3). Both pitchers enter this contest pitching well, although Teheran has the better recent resume. I'll stick with teh vet in this one, as Teheran 3 owns a 2.77 ERA in seven career starts against St Louis plus the Cards have won just SIX of their last 21 and haven't won a series since taking three of four at Washington (April 29-May 2). Why win one now? Good luck...Larry |
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05-26-19 | Diamondbacks v. Giants +110 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
My 9* Division Dominator (NL West) is on the SF Giants at 4:05 ET. The Arizona Diamondbacks began the weekend on a five-game losing streak but have rediscovered their offense at Oracle Park against the host San Francisco Giants. They've taken the first two contests of the three-game series by a combined score of 28-6. The D'backs set a season high for runs scored in Friday’s 18-2 rout and followed by cruising to a 10-4 win on Saturday. San Francisco has now lost four in a row and at 21-30, finds itself 12 1/2 games out in the NL West (D'backs are 27-25). Luke Weaver (3-3, 3.14 ERA) takes the mound for Arizona, opposed by San Francisco's Shaun Anderson (0-0, 3.60 ERA). The two are former college rivals, as Weaver pitched at Florida St and Anderson at Florida. Weaver was a hard-luck loser Monday against San Diego, after allowing two runs and striking out seven over six innings but taking the 2-1 loss. He owns a 2.44 ERA and 55-to-8 KW ratio over his last eight starts (since April 12), although the D'backs are a modest 4-4 in those starts. Anderson was acquired from Boston in the 2017 trade for Eduardo Nunez and had posted a 4.11 ERA in seven starts for Triple-A Sacramento before his promotion. However, he has pitched well in two starts since joining the Giants’ rotation May 15, allowing a total of five runs (four earned) with eight strikeouts over 10 innings Giants have won BOTH games!). I realize Weaver has put up impressive numbers lately but I'm still not sold. Anderson has been a nice surprise for the Giants and I'm expecting the team that's scored 28 runs son 34 hits the last two games, will "return to earth." That's the bet. Good luck...Larry |
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05-26-19 | Reds v. Cubs -156 | 10-2 | Loss | -156 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
My 7* Situational Stunner is on the Chi Cubs at 2:20 ET. The first-place Chicago Cubs (30-20) beat the Reds 8-6 on Saturday, after falling 6-5 on Friday. The Reds battled back to forge a tie twice in Saturday's contest but the loss dropped them to just 8-22 in their last 30 contests at Wrigley Field. The rubber game of the three-game series goes Sunday, as Chicago looks to avenge a series loss against the Reds earlier this month, in which it dropped two out of three games on the road. The Cubs have won 18 of their last 26 games and have posted a 10-1-2 record in their past 13 series. Meanwhile, Cincinnati will try to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time since May 12-14. The Reds have scored a half-dozen runs or more in three straight games but have allowed 24 runs in that span. The pitching matchup features Tanner Roark (3-3, 3.51 ERA) vs Jose Quintana (4-3, 3.30 ERA). Roark is in his first season in Cincinnati, after spending the past six years with the Washington National. He owns a 2.78 ERA, while limiting opponents to a .205 batting average in splitting four decisions this month, after posting 4.08 and .289 marks in April. However, Roark comes in having lost back-to-back outings against the Cubs and Dodgers (4.50 ERA). Quintana will make his 10th start of the season. He allowed eight ERs (over just three innings) in his first start of 2019 but in the eight starts since, is 4-2 (team is 6-2), posting a 2.32 ERA in 50.1 innings. I noted Cincy's woes at Wrigley (8-22 the last 30) and will add here that against lefties on the road in day games, the Reds are an abysmal 6-26 (that's an 81% "go-against") since the start of the 2018 season (Reds are averaging just 3.18 RPG). Cubs win! Cubs win! Good luck...Larry |
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05-26-19 | Phillies v. Brewers -156 | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
My 7* Las Vegas Insider is on the Mil Brewers at 2:10 ET. Andrew McCutchen, the 2013 NL MVP, is 12-for-29 with a pair of HRs and nine RBI during a seven-game hitting streak after hitting a solo shot in Saturday’s 7-2 victory. He's not alone, as he has plenty of teammates who are swinging hot bats as well, helping the Phillies win SEVEN of their last nine (Phils are averaging 5.86 RPG in their seven wins). Philadelphia leads the NL East at 31-21, 2 1/2 games up on the Braves. As for the Brewers, they have now lost three of their last four at home, after winning EIGHT of their previous 10 at Miller Park. Milwaukee is 29-24, 2 1/2 games back of the NL Central-leading Cubs. Philly goes for a three-game sweep on Sunday, as Zach Eflin (5-4, 2.76 ERA) squares off against Brandon Woodruff (6-1, 3.51 ERA). Eflin posted his fourth quality start in five outings Tuesday, when he limited the Chicago Cubs to one run on six hits and four walks over six innings of a no-decision (Phils lost, 3-2). Eflin has had a very good season so far, as he has given up three runs or less in SEVEN of his 10 starts. Eflin gave up four runs over five innings in an 11-3 loss to Milwaukee last week, falling to 2-1 with a 3.94 ERA in three career starts vs the Brewers. Woodruff opened the season with a 5-3 mark in 27 career appearances (just 12 starts) but his six wins leads all Milwaukee starters in 2019. He has strung together five consecutive wins in his last seven trips to the mound (team is 6-1), allowing two runs or less in SIX of those seven starts. He did not get a decision in his last start May 19, even though he held Atlanta to two runs across a season-high eight innings. Woodruff has not permitted an earned run in 10 career innings versus the Phillies. No knock on Eflin but Woodruff comes in on the better roll, allowing just five ERs over 30 innings of his last five starts (Milwaukee is 5-0 and Woodruff's ERA is 1.50). He's shown no signs of slowing down, as he pitched a season-high eight innings in his last outing. NO sweep here, as the Brewers get the "W." Good luck...Larry |
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05-25-19 | Rangers +116 v. Angels | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 1 m | Show | |
My 9* Pitch-Perfect Play is on the Tex Rangers at 10:07 ET. The Texas Rangers came back for a 4-3 win last night in Anaheim over the Angels, the team's EIGHTH win in its last nine, overall. Shin-Soo Choo led off the contest with his fourth HR in seven games and Hunter Pence delivered a two-run single in the seventh inning to erase a 3-1 deficit. 25-23 Texas has now won three straight on the road, following a five-game skid away from home. Meanwhile, the 22-28 Angels have lost FIVE consecutive games and SEVEN of nine It's a 'battle' of lefties on Saturday, as Mike Minor (5-3, 2.64 ERA) takes on Tyler Skaggs (4-4, 5.01 ERA). Minor made 65 relief appearances for KC in 2017 but the Rangers put him back in the starting rotation in 2018. He made 28 starts last year, going 12-8 with a 4.18 ERA. Here in 2019, he's been the team's best starter, going 5-3 with a 2.64 ERA in 10 starts. He's allowed more than two runs only THREE times in 10 outings this season, just ONCE in his last five.Minor looks to win a THREE in a row, after allowing three ERs runs with 14 strikeouts over 11 innings (2,45 ERA) in back-to-back wins over Kansas City on the road and Seattle at home. As for Skaggs, he's allowed 16 ERs on 19 hits and seven walks over his last three starts (15.1 innings), posting a 9.39 ERA. That comes after he had allowed two or fewer runs in FOUR of his previous five starts. Skaggs gave up just one run on five hits over 6.1 innings of a 5-1 win over Texas back on April 6 improving to 5-2 with a 4.80 ERA in 11 career starts against the Rangers (team is 7-4 ). However, Minor tossed his first career shutout back on April 16 against the Angels (5-0), permitting three hits and two walks with seven strikeouts in improving to 3-0 with a 2.39 ERA in four starts (teams are a PERFECT 4-0 ) and two relief appearances vs the club. That 4-0 record in lifetime starts is 'sweet' but of greater interest is the fact that the Angels are only 4-14 vs left-handers in 2019 (a 78% "go-against"), including 0-6 (a 100% "go-against), averaging 3.5 RPG in home night games! Good luck...Larry |
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05-25-19 | Braves -110 v. Cardinals | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* NL Pitching Mismatch of the Month is on the Atl Braves at 7:15 ET. Atlanta shortstop Dansby Swanson is healthy this year, after an injured left wrist kept him off the playoff roster and led to off-season surgery. Swanson extended his hitting streak to seven games with the second multi-HR game of his career in Friday’s 5-2 victory, giving him 10 HRs and 35 RBs in 52 games as the Braves won for the 11th time in 14 games. The 29-23 Braves are closing in on the Philadelphia Phillies at the top of the NL East (Phils lead by 1 1/2 games) but in stark contrast,the Cards have now dropped 15 of their last 20 games, falling to 25-15 (were 20-10 after winning on May 1). The middle game of this three-game series goes Saturday evening, with Mike Soroka (5-1, 1.01 ERA) taking the mound against Dakota Hudson (3-3, 4.40 ERA). Soroka continued what's been amazing rookie season (so far) in his last outing. He gave up one run on two hits with no walks over eight innings Monday at San Francisco. He retired the first 15 batters he faced and limited the Giants to two hits, including an 8th-inning HR that ended of his 61-inning streak without allowing one. In his lone career outing vs St Louis, gave up three hits in seven shutout innings to defeat the Cardinals 4-0 on May 15. Hudson snapped a three-start winless streak and earned his first triumph of the month on May 18 at Texas, giving up two runs on five hits with five strikeouts in six innings of an 8-2 victory. Hudson has never faced Atlanta. Hudson has only allowed more than three ERs in ONE of his nine 2019 starts but a closer look at his stat sheet reveals opponents are batting .299 with an .841 OPS against him, while he's allowed nine HRs in 47 innings. Compare that to Soroka, who has allowed just ONE in 44.2 innings this season (just two in 70.1 career innings). Soroka has given up just five ERs over 44.2 innings this season (seven starts), allowing 25 hits for an 0.87 WHIP, 1.01 ERA and .159 BAA. The Braves are 9-3 in his 12 career starts, with Soroka going 7-2 with a 1.92 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and .211 BAA. Can we agree, he's NOT a fluke? Good luck...Larry |
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05-25-19 | Mariners v. A's -122 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
My 8* Division Dominator (AL West) is on the Oak A's at 4:07 ET. The Oakland A's scored five of their runs on HRs in Friday's 6-2 triumph, as they defeated Seattle for the first time in five meetings this season. Matt Olson hit a three-run HR while Mark Canha and Stephen Piscotty hit solo shots. After losing back-to-back games in Seattle (May 13 & 14), the A's have ripped off SEVEN straight wins in an eight-game stretch (the team's May 19th game at Detroit was suspended with the A's leading 5-3 in the 7th). Oakland is now back over .500, at 26-25. In stark contrast, the Mariners have "fallen apart" after a blistering 13-2 start to 2019. The Mariners are 0-4 on their six-game road trip and have dropped EIGHT straight away from home. Seattle is now just 10-28 since the team's red-hot start and find themselves 23-30 on the season, 11 1/2 games back of the Houston Astros in the AL West. Saturday's pitching matchup features Seattle's Yusei Kikuchi (3-1, 3.43 ERA) and Oakland's Mike Fiers (3-3, 5.05 ERA). Kikuchi, a Japan native, is a 2019 rookie. Kikuchi has had his ups and downs in his first season. However, he has gone 2-0 over his last four starts (team is 3-1), allowing six ERs in 26.2 innings during the stretch (2.03 ERA). Kikuchi has posted a 3.38 ERA in two no-decisions against Oakland but the A's are 2-0. Fiers was 17-9 in 2018 (Det & Oak), finishing as MLB's top money-earner (21-9 in starts, +$1,879). However, 2019 has NOT gone as well, as he entered his no-hitter back on May 7 with a 6.81 ERA. He's posted two no-decisions since throwing his second career no-hitter, but has pitched well. He opposed Kikuchi on May 13, giving up just one run and two hits over five innings (Mariners won 6-5 in 10 innings) plus started Oakland's May 19th game at Detroit, which was suspended with Oakland leading 5-3 (see above). Fiers allowed three ERs over six innings in that one, meaning he's allowed just four ERs over his last three starts (20 innings), for a 1.80 ERA. I've already noted Seattle's struggles (10-28 run since April 12th) plus I'll add that Fiers has pitched VERY well in Oakland. He's made just four home starts (DON'T count a 'home game' in Japan against the Mariners) and in THREE of the four, he's not allowed a single run in 21 innings (includes his no-hitter vs the Reds). He should get some run support here as well, as the A's draw the left-handed Kikuchi and they are 11-5 vs lefties in 2019, including 7-2 at home. A's win again. Good luck...Larry |
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05-24-19 | Diamondbacks -122 v. Giants | Top | 18-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Arz D'backs at 10:15 ET. The Arizona Diamondbacks were battling the LA Dodgers for first place in the NL West in the first few days of May. The D'backs won their fourth in a row back on May 4 and at 20-13, were right on the Dodgers' heels, as LA was 22-13. However, as all teams enter Memorial Day weekend, the D'backs are on a five-game losing streak and the team's 5-12 run since May 5 has seen them fall back to .500 at 25-25 (Dodgers are in first at 32-18, SEVEN games up on Arizona). The Diamondbacks arrive for a three-game road series in San Francisco on Friday night, facing a Giants team that just lost three of four against Atlanta at home. The Giants are now just 10-15 at Oracle Park and 21-28 on the season (San Francisco sits in last place in the NL West, 10 1/2 games back of the Dodgers). Friday's pitching matchup features a 'battle' of lefties, as Robbie Ray (3-1, 3.25 ERA) goes up against Drew Pomeranz (1-4, 5.66 ERA). Ray may not be the dominant pitcher he was in 2017 (15-5 with a 2.89 ERA) but he is unbeaten in his last eight trips to the mound. He's posted a modest three wins in that span but note that the D'bcks have won FOUR of his last five starts, with Ray posting a very good ERA of 2.49. Pomeranz allowed two runs on two hits and five walks over 4.2 innings of a no-decision at Arizona last Sunday, a game the Giants won, 3-2. It was his first start since returning from a lat strain. The short outing means that Pomeranz has completed more than five innings in just ONE of his eight starts in 2019 (owns a 1.60 WHIP and .275 BAA to go along with his 5.66 ERA). Let me note first that Ray opposed Pomeranz in last Sunday's game and I always like these quick "re-hooks.' Let me add that Pomeranz is 0-3 with a 7.76 ERA in nine career games (six starts / teams are 2-4 and his ERA in those starts is 8.31) vs the Diamondbacks, while Ray owns a 2.98 ERA in 12 career starts vs the Giants. In the lefty vs lefty department, the D'backs are 5-2 and averaging 7.0 RPG vs left-hander in road night games in 2019, while the Giants went just 30-35 vs lefties in 2018 (3.5 RPG) and are 6-10 at home vs lefties in 2019 (averaging 3.6 RPG). Arizona is the BIG play! Good luck...Larry |
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05-24-19 | Braves v. Cardinals -147 | 5-2 | Loss | -147 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
My 7* Las Vegas Insider is on the StL Cardinals at 8:15 ET. The St Louis Cardinals opened the month with a 5-1 win at Washington on May 1 (sat 20-10) but have since lost 14 of 19 games to fall to 25-24, 4 1/2 games back of the first-place Cubs in the NL Central. The Cardinals salvaged a doubleheader split with Wednesday’s 10-3 victory over Kansas City in the nightcap but have surrendered four runs or more FIVE times while going 3-6 in their past nine contests. Meanwhile, the 28-23 Atlanta Braves opened a seven-game road trip by taking three of four games at San Francisco following a 5-4, 13-inning victory Thursday. Thursday victory was the Braves' 10th win in their last 13 games. rookie Austin Riley went 3-for-6 on Thursday, hitting a two-run HR in the eighth to tie the game, before singling home the game-winning run in the 13th. He hitting .389 with a 1.254 OPS and became the ninth player in major-league history to hit five HRs in his first nine career games. The starting pitchers for Friday contest, the first of a three-game set, are Mike Foltynewicz (0-3, 6.91 ERA) for Atlanta and Miles Mikolas (4-4, 4.88 ERA) for St Louis. Foltynewicz was 13-10 with a 2.85 ERA in 2018, finishing eighth in the NL Cy Young award voting while placing sixth in strikeouts (202) and ERA. However, he pitched just two innings in spring training due to right elbow soreness. After posting a 6.11 ERA while going 1-1 in four minor-league rehab starts for Triple-A Gwinnett, he made his season debut on April 27. He had allowed eight HRs over 21.1 innings in four starts in 2019, after surrendering a career-worst eight runs on seven hits (including three HRs) and three walks in 4.2 innings of a 14-3 loss to St Louis on May 14. He did show major improvement in his last outing, holding the Brewers to two runs on three hits with no walks and three strikeouts in six innings. However, the Braves lost, 3-2 (Atlanta is 0-5 in his 2019 starts). Mikolas opened May with only three runs allowed across 20 innings in three starts (1.35 ERA) but was hammered for seven runs on nine hits in just 1.1 innings of a 7-3 loss at Texas last Friday. Mikolas made the All-Star team while going 18-4 with a 2.83 ERA a season ago, after not pitching in the majors since 2014. He hasn't had the same success this season but note that he has limited opponents to three ERs or less in SEVEN of his 10 starts this season. seven times in his first 10 starts. As noted above, Foltynewicz hs done little right, save his last outing, but it's hardly good news for Atlanta that he has historically had trouble against the Cardinals. He is 2-4 with a 9.33 ERA in six career starts vs the Cards. As for Mikolas, the "sample size" is small but he owns a 1.98 ERA in three career starts vs the Braves. Not sure "Folty" is back just yet and let's NOT forget that the Cards were 24-8 in all of Mikolas' starts in 2018, going plus-$1,418 vs the moneyline (4th-best among all starters). Good luck...Larry |
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05-24-19 | Phillies v. Brewers -125 | 6-4 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
My 8* Late-Breaker is on the Mil Brewers at 8:10 ET. The 29-22 Milwaukee Brewers are trailing the NL Central-leading Chicago Cubs (29-19) by 1 1/2 games. The Brewers open a three-game home series vs the visiting Phillies, who they took three of four against in Philadelphia last week. Milwaukee split a two-game home series with the Reds Tuesday and Thursday, while the Phillies split a four-game series with the Cubs at Wrigley, to open the week. Jerad Eickhoff (2-2, 3.23 ERA) gets the ball tonight for Philly and Chase Anderson (2-0, 2.66 ERA) for the Brewers. Eickhoff produced three straight outstanding efforts from April 26 through May 8, allowing just one ER on eight hits (0.45 ERA), as the Phils won all three of those starts. However, he's followed that trio of outstanding starts with two disastrous ones. H'se allowed nine ERs on 12 hits over nine innings (that's 9.00 ERA) in back-to-back starts against Milwaukee and Colorado. Chase Anderson's first five appearances in 2019 came out of the bullpen. He then got starts on April 20 and 26, allowing just two ERs over 9.2 innings, as the Brewers won 5-0 and 10-2. He was then placed on the DL with a lacerated right middle finger but got a start last Saturday, allowing one run on two hits in four innings of a no-decision against the Braves (Brewers lost 4-3). Neither of these pitchers have had success against tonight's opponent, as Eickhoff is 1-3 with a 6.55 ERA against the Brewers and Anderson is 1-3 with a 6.75 ERA in five starts (team is 1-4) against the Philles. However, I'll note that that recent series between the two teams (in Philly from May 13-16), after losing the first game, the Brewers took the last three, outscoring the Phils 22-6. Milwaukee is 17-9 at home this season (averaging 5,27 ERA), including going 12-6 in home night games vs righties, averaging 5.23 RPG. I'm backing the Brewers. Good luck...Larry |
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05-23-19 | Phillies v. Cubs -115 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Chi Cubs at 2:20 ET. Chicago Cubs fell 5-4 to the Philadelphia Phillies in the opener of this four-game series on Monday but have answered that setback with back-to-back wins.Javier Baez followed up his game-winning hit in Tuesday's 3-2 victory with a solo HR in Wednesday's 8-4 win. Albert Almora Jr. hit a grand slam last night, improving to 7-for-15 during his four-game hitting streak for Chicago, which is averaging a NL-leading 5.38 runs per game. Philadelphia's Nos. 1-3 batters in the lineup went 8-for-14 with four runs scored on Wednesday but it was not nearly enough. Bryce Harper answered an 0-for-8 start to the series with three hits but the team's major free-agent signee is batting just .235 (it would be a career-low). Aaron Nola (4-0, 4.47 ERA) gets the start for the Phillies, opposed by the Cubs' Jon Lester (3-2, 2.09 ERA). Nola won his 2019 debut (despite FIVE walks) but then suffered through three straight no-decisions (Phils lost all three), allowing 19 hits and 15 ERs over 13.1 innings (10.13 ERA). However, he's posted a 2.30 ERA over his last five, with four one-run performances, reducing his season total by nearly 2 1/2 runs. He's yet to lose in 10 starts in 2019 but the Phillies are a modest 6-4 in those games. Along with his 4.77 ERA, Nola sports a poor 1.55 WHIP and .290 BAA. Lester endured his worst start of the season this past Saturday, allowing five runs on 10 hits in 4.1 innings in a 5-2 loss at Washington. However, the 35-year-old vet had allowed just five ERs in his previous seven 2019 starts (1.16 ERA / Cubs went 7-1). The Cubs will take the field today with a 17-7 home mark at Wrigley. Chicago pitching has led the way at home, as the Cubs are allowing opponents just 2.96 RPG in their home park. Today, they send Lester to mound, knowing he's 8-0 with a 1.49 ERA in 10 career starts vs the Phillies (teams are 9-1). Opposing him is an overrated Nola (see his 2019 stats above), who owns a 1-1 career mark and 5.12 ERA in three career starts vs the Cubs (team is 1-2). Cubs win! Cubs win! Good luck...Larry |
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05-23-19 | Rockies v. Pirates -128 | 6-14 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
My 8* Getaway Day Romp is on the Pit Pirates at 12:35 ET. The Colorado Rockies opened their eight-game road trip 1-4 but this afternoon at PNC Park, have a chance to salvage a .500 road trip when they seek a three-game sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates. 22-25 Colorado received a huge boost from its Nos. 6-8 hitters in Wednesday's 9-3 victory as center fielder Ian Desmond, rookie second baseman Brendan Rodgers and catcher Tony Wolters were a combined 7-for-15 with four RBIs and four runs scored. As for 24-22 Pittsburgh, the Pirates have seemingly lost all momentum of a 7-4 road trip that preceded this series. Thursday's pitching matchup features Antonio Senzatela (3-3, 4.89 ERA) and Jordan Lyles (4-1, 1.97 ERA). Senzatela is coming off two solid starts, allowing two runs (one earned), five hits and four walks over five innings of a 2-1 loss at Philadelphia on May 18, after defeating San Diego 10-7 (three runs, seven strikeouts in 6.2 innings) on May 12. However, those outings have followed his worst outing of 2019, when he allowed seven ERs in just 4.2 innings of a 14-4 home loss to the Giants on May 7. This marks his first-ever starts vs the Pirates. Lyles was 13-16 with a 5.22 ERA in 105 games (37 starts) with Colorado from 2014-17 but the 28-year-old has been 're-born' with Pittsburgh in 2019. He's allowed just one run in each of his last three starts and struck out a career-high 12 over seven innings of a 5-3 victory at San Diego this past Friday. Lyles has 47 strikeouts against 32 hits and 16 walks, good for a 1.05 WHIP, over 45.2 innings this season, while relying more on his curveball. Senzatela is part of a rotation that boasts a National League-high 5.42 ERA and he's contributed to its woes, with a 1.45 WHIP and .277 batting average against. Meanwhile, along with the already mentioned excellent numbers this season from Lyles, I'll add that he's holding opponents to a .199 BAA and the Pirates have gone 7-1 in his eight starts, giving him a moneyline mark of plus-$780, which is tops among all starters in 2019. No sweep here! Good luck...Larry |
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05-22-19 | Phillies v. Cubs -140 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
My 7* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chi Cubs at 8:05 ET. Chicago's Javier Baez missed his second straight start because of a bruised right heel but his pinch-hit single down the right-field line gave the Cubs a 3-2 win over the Phillies last night. Chicago has alternated losses and wins over the last six games but the 28-18 Cubs still maintain a two-game lead in the NL Central over the Milwaukee Brewers. You may just have heard that the Phiilies made a HUGE investment prior to the start of the 2019 season in Bryce Harper but after he went 0-for-4 on Tuesday, he's hitting .224 on the season, which is the lowest mark of his career. That said, the 28-20 Phillies lead the NL East by 2 1/2 games over the Braves. It's a 'battle' of lefties and Coles tonight, as Cole Irvin (2-0, 2.77 ERA) squares off against Cole Hamels (4-0 3.13 ERA). Irvin followed his impressive major-league debut with his second win in as many starts, permitting four runs (three earned) on five hits in six innings of a 5-4 victory over Colorado. The 25-year-old pitched seven strong innings at KC in his ML debut on May 12, allowing just one run in a 6-1 victory. The 35-year-old Hamels is showing no signs of slowing down. He has spent the past four-plus seasons with the Cubs and Texas Rangers, after going 114-90 with a 3.30 ERA for the Phiilies (he was the MVP of the 2008 World Series). Hamels napped a string of four straight no-decisions on Friday, after allowing two runs in five innings of a 14-6 victory at Washington. Hamels takes the mound having allowed two ERs or less in FOUR of his last five starst and the Cubs have gone 7-2 in his 2019 starts. The Cubs are 16-7 at home this season, holding opponents to a mere 2.91 RPG at Wrigley. The Phillies are just 4-10 since 2018 on the road vs left-handers at night, averaging just 2.5 RPG. Hamels has to like those numbers. Cubs win! Cubs win! Good luck...Larry |
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05-22-19 | Red Sox -150 v. Blue Jays | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
My 7* Late-Breaker is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:07 ET. Boston rolled to a 12-2 win Monday at Toronto, improving to 14-5, while the Blue Jays fell to 5-14 over their previous 19 games. However, what a difference a day can make. Toronto exacted a bit of revenge with a 10-3 drubbing of the Red Sox on Tuesday. The teams meet again tonight, in the third contest of a four-game set. The Blue Jays have won three of five overall but they're just 6-14 in their last 20 and haven't won two in a row since sweeping a three-game home series against the Oakland A's from April 26-28. Porcello (3-4, 4.80 ERA) will be on the mound for Boston and Aaron Sanchez (3-4, 3.88 ERA) gets the ball fro Toronto. Porcello won the Cy Young award in 2016, going 22-4. However, he fell to 11-17 the following year, before bouncing back to go 17-11 last season. He opened the current season 0-3 with an 11.12 ERA in his first three starts but was 3-0 with a 3.06 ERA in his last five outings (Red Sox had won all five!), prior to hies most recent start. Porcello saw a stellar effort turn into a loss against last Friday, when he served up a two-run HR in the eighth inning (Boston would lose, 3-1). to end his five-start unbeaten streak. However, let's NOT ignore that since he was battered for 19 runs in losing his first three starts of the year, he has shaved more than SIX runs off his ERA while permitting three runs or less in FIVE of his six starts. Sanchez memorably went 15-2 (3.00 ERA) back in 2016 but he was limited to just 28 starts in 2017 and 2018, going 5-9 with a 4.72 ERA. He has been bothered by blisters throughout his career and the issue resurfaced in his last outing, when he settled for a no-decision after giving up two runs and three hits in three-plus innings at the Chicago White Sox (Jays won, 10-2). However, he had lost each of his previous three starts, posting a 6.35 ERA. Note that Toronto's 10-run, 11-hit effort last night came against a lefty starter but that in home games this season vs righties, the Jays are 5-10, averaging just 3.22 RPG. As noted above, Porcello is in excellent form his last six outings plus Sanchez is winless in his last six starts vs Boston since the start of 2017 (Jays have lost FIVE of the six). Throw in the fact that the Jays haven't won back-to-back games in nearly a month and the play is on Porcello and the Red Sox. Good luck...Larry |
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05-22-19 | Reds v. Brewers +102 | Top | 9-11 | Win | 102 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Mil Brewers at 1:10 ET. The Milwaukee Brewers took on playoff hopefuls Chicago, Philadelphia and Atlanta on a 10-game road trip and finished 5-5. The Brewers returned to Miller Park to kick off a five-game homestand on Tuesday against the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds came into last night's game 21-26 but had "righted the ship" following starts of 1-8 and 5-12 by going 16-14 over their previous 30 games.The Brewers entered Tuesday's contest 18-6 at home gut lost 3-0, snapping a six-game winning streak at Miller Park. The Reds may still be in last place in the NL Central (at 22-26) but they own the lowest ERA in the NL at 3.34 and the team's seventh shutout of the season is the most of any team. Pitching will take "center stage" in tonight's concluding contest of this two-game set. Luis Castillo (5-1, 1.90 ERA) will take the mound for Cincinnati and will be opposed by Milwaukee's Zach Davies (5-0, 1.54 ERA). Castillo allowed two runs, two hits and one walk with six strikeouts across 5.1 innings of a 4-2 victory over the Chicago Cubs last Thursday. He's now allowed two or fewer runs in NINE of his 10 starts of 2019 and has allowed only 34 hits over 61.2 innings this season. He has 76 strikeouts in those 61.2 innings, posting an 0.96 WHIP and holding opponents to a .163 BAA. along with Castillo's only loss this season was a 1-0 decision to Milwaukee back on April 3, when he allowed one run, one hit and four walks while striking out nine in seven innings. He's 2-2 with a 2.70 ERA in five career starts against the Brewers (team is 3-2). Davies had shoulder and back issues in 2018's injury-plagued season, limiting him to just 13 starts (2-7, 4.77 ERA / team was 5-8). Davies allowed three runs (one earned), four hits and one walk while striking out five over six innings of an 11-3 victory at Philadelphia this past Thursday. He hasn't allowed more than two ERs in ANY of his nine outings this season. He owns the second-lowest ERA in the majors behind Hyun-Jin Ryu of the LA Dodgers (1.52) but is a modest 3-3 (3.32 ERA) in 11 career starts (team is 6-5) vs the Reds. Neither pitcher has shown any weakness in 2019 but I'll note that Davies will take an 0.76 ERA in four home starts into this game. He'll face a Cincy team that owns MLB's lowest team BA (.217) and has averaged only 3.32 RPG in 25 away games in 2019. The Brewers were shut out last night but they are 16-9 at home, averaging 5.04 RPG. Good luck...Larry |
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05-21-19 | Diamondbacks +102 v. Padres | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 41 m | Show |
The Arizona Diamondbacks and the San Diego Padres continue their three-game game series Tuesday night, as both are battling for position in the NL West. The 24-24 Padres snapped a three-game losing streak and pulled within a game of second-place of the 25-23 Diamondbacks with Monday’s 2-1 victory. Rookie Chris Paddack gave San Diego six strong innings, Franmil Reyes hit his 15th HR and Kirby Yates recorded his 18th save In 18 opportunities!). Arizona has now lost three in a row and has scored just a total of three runs with eight hits in its last two games. The middle of the Diamondbacks’ order - Eduardo Escobar, David Peralta, Christian Walker and Blake Swihart – finished a combined 0-for-15 with eight strikeouts in Monday’s loss. Taking the mound for Arizona tonight will be Zack Greinke (6-1, 2.78 ERA), who will be opposed by Matt Strahm (1-3, 3.07 ERA). Greinke left last Wednesday’s start against Pittsburgh early after experiencing abdominal tightness but after throwing a successful bullpen session over the weekend, he's back on the mound tonight. That's GREAT news for the D'backs, as he is 6-0 with a 1.92 ERA in his last nine starts (team is 7-2), posting a 59-6 KW ratio over 61 innings. Strahm is a lefty who took the loss last Wednesday against the Dodgers, after allowing two runs on seven hits in five innings. The Padres are 4-4 in his eight starts in 2019 but note that Strahm owns a 4.24 ERA in three home starts compared to a 2.33 mark in five outings away from Petco Park. Strahm was used mostly in relief during his previous three MLB seasons (just eight starts in 86 appearances) but he's a full-time starter in 2019. Is he really a match for five-time All Star (and former Cy Young winner) Greinke? As already noted, Greinke owns a 1.92 ERA in his last nine starts plus owns a stellar 13-2 record and 2.30 ERA in 24 career starts vs San Diego (team are 18-6), including a 2-0 mark in two outings this season. Want more? Greinke will face a SD team which is just 4-11 in home night games against righties, averaging only 3.03 RPG. Good luck...Larry |
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05-21-19 | Reds v. Brewers -139 | 3-0 | Loss | -139 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
My MLB 8* Weekly Wipeout is on the Mil Brewers at 7:40 ET. The Milwaukee Brewers took on playoff hopefuls Chicago, Philadelphia and Atlanta on a 10-game road trip and finished 5-5, Ben Gamel led off the 10th with a home run against the Braves on Sunday. "To finish off a long, tough road trip with a win and kind of hold serve on the road, so to speak - 5-5 against three teams above .500 and a couple teams that are leading their division - that's a good place to be," Brewers manager Craig Counsell told reporters. The 28-21 Brewers will now kick off a five-game homestand when they host the Cincinnati Reds in the opener of a two-game set on Tuesday. The Reds dropped two of three at home to the LA Dodgers over the weekend and sit in last place in the NL Central at 21-26. However, the Reds have "righted the ship" following starts of 1-8 and 5-12,having gone 16-14 over their last 30 games. They will now play their next nine against NL Central opponents, beginning with this two-game series against the Brewers. Tuesday's pitching matchup features Sonny Gray (0-4, 4.30 ERA) and Gio Gonzalez (2-0, 1.69 ERA). Gray began his career with Oakland but pitched for the Yankees for part of the 2017 season and all of 2018. He was traded to Cincinnati on Jan 21 and is still looking for his first win of 2019. He's made nine starts (team is 3-6) and has failed to complete six innings in any of his last five. He was reached for three runs on five hits (including two HRs) in five innings without factoring in the decision against the Chicago Cubs last Wednesday (Reds won 6-5, after losing his three previous starts). Gray spent the first six seasons of his career in the American League and is making his first career start at Milwaukee. Gonzalez is having similar problems to Gray in going deep into games but has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his four starts since signing with the team in April. He has yet to complete six innings but after Milwaukee lost his team debut on April 28, he's 2-0 (team is 3-0), while posting a 1.10 ERA (two ERs allowed over 16.1 innings). Gonzalez went 2-1 in three starts against Cincinnati last season, including six scoreless innings on Sep 19 after he was traded from Washington to Milwaukee. He's got a 2.75 ERA in 12 career starts vs the Reds. The Brewers are 16-8 at home this season, where they average 5.25 RPG. The Reds opened 0-7 on the road and while they are 9-8 since that start to check in at 9-15 away from home on the year, they are averaging only 3.33 RPG in road contests. A closer look reveals that they are 2-5 vs lefties on the road in 2019 (averaging 3.6 RPG), after going 3-10 vs left-handers on the road in night games in 2018, averaging just 2.9 RPG. Getting back to Milwaukee, the Brewers are 11-5 vs righties at Miller Park, including 7-3 in night games, averaging 5.3 RPG. That's no surprise, as the Brewers were 27-8 at home last year vs righties in night games. Good luck...Larry |
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05-21-19 | Marlins v. Tigers -106 | 5-4 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Det Tigers at 7:10 ET. The Miami Marlins own the worst record in MLB (13-31) but enter a three-game interleague series at the Detroit Tigers on Tuesday with some momentum. The Marlins are coming off their first series sweep of the year, taking three straight from the New York Mets over the weekend, including the last two in shutout fashion. Meanwhile, the Tigers will welcome the Marlins to Detroit having been outscored 52-12 during a six-game losing streak. Detroit was on its way to a seven-game losing streak but trailing 5-3 in the seventh inning Sunday against Oakland, the game was suspended because of rain. All six losses have taken place at home and the Tigers have now dropped EIGHT of their last nine at Comerica Park, giving them a 9-14 home record.. Tuesday's pitching matchup features two promising young starters, Caleb Smith (3-1, 2.25 ERA) of Miami and Spencer Turnbull (2-3, 2.40 ERA) of Detroit. Smith suffered just his first loss of the year last Tuesday against Tampa Bay, after allowing a modest two runs in 5.1 innings. It ended a string of six straight starts in which he had completed at least six innings. Smith owns a n 0.92 WHIP and opponents are batting just .180 against him, yet he Marlins are just 4-4 in his eight starts. He has one inning of relief in his career against the Tigers. Turnbull gave up six runs in four innings in a loss to Oakland his last time out but just ONE of the runs was earned. He owns a 1.34 ERA over his last six starts, including two outings against National League teams in which he gave up one run and five hits in a combined 12 innings (0.75 ERA). Turnbull's numbers are not quite as good as Smith's but the Tigers are 5-4 in his starts. He has never faced the Marlins. Yes, the Tigers are in a woeful slump but the Marlins could be "just what the doctor ordered." Sure, Miami comes in off a three-game sweep of the Mets (NOT a big deal, these days) but the Marlins rank 30th in scoring (2.68 RPG), OPS (.592) and HRs (27) plus 28th in team BA (.219). The Marlins are 4-14 on the road, averaging a puny 2.22 RPG, while allowing 5.11. THIS is a team that allows a club like Detroit to snap a losing streak. That's the bet! Good luck...Larry |
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05-20-19 | Braves -130 v. Giants | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
My 8* Late-Breaking Play is on the Atl Braves at 9:45 ET. The Atlanta Braves fell Sunday at home to Milwaukee 3-2 in 10 innings to end a four-game winning streak but have won four of their last five series and seven of their last nine games overall. The 25-22 Braves open a seven-game road trip Monday at San Francisco and hope to continue their strong play of late. The 20-25 Giants have also played better of late, winning four of their last six, after winning two of three in Arizona over the weekend, getting a pinch-hit HR from Pablo Sandoval for the game winner in Sunday 3-2 win (also in 10 innings).. The pitching matchup for the opener of this four-game set features Atlanta rookie Mike Soroka (4-1, 0.98 ERA), going against San Francisco left-hander Andrew Suarez, who is making his first appearance for the Giants this season. Soroka takes the mound in the opener after allowing one earned run or less in all SIX starts this season and doing so NINE times in his 11 career starts. He has given up just four ERs over 36.2 innings this season (six starts) and in his 11 career starts (Braves are 8-3), is 6-2 with a 2.02 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Can we agree, he's NOT a fluke? Wait, how about this? He has not surrendered a HR in 57 innings, the longest current streak in the majors that dates back to his big-league debut last May. As for Suarez, he failed to make the Giants roster out of spring training, one season after starting 29 games in the majors (7-13, 4.49 ERA and 1.30 WHIP / team was 12-17). He's missed time at Triple-A Sacramento with a hamstring injury and in six starts, is 2-3 with a 6.33 ERA. He heads into this game having allowed seven ERs on 14 hits over just 8.2 innings in two starts since returning from the injured list (7.27 ERA). Suarez's numbers are hardly a ringing endorsement and give little reason to expect he can hold down an Atlanta lineup led by 1st baseman Freddie Freeman . Freeman is batting .425 with a 1.302 OPS over the last 10 games and has homered in a career-best four straight games. Freeman has 11 HRs, eight coming over his last 83 at-bats. What's more, not only his Suarez matched up against the red-hot Soroka but the Gianst haven't hit right-handers well, especially in home night games. The Giants are averaging just 2.4 RPG in seven home night games vs righties in 2019. A small sample size, you say? Fair enough but in 30 home night games against righties in 2018, the Giants averaged just 3.6 RPG. Take the Braves and Soroka. Good luck...Larry |
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05-19-19 | Cubs -122 v. Nationals | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on the Chi Cubs at 7:05 ET. The Washington Nationals will make their first appearance of the season on Sunday Night Baseball, when they host the Chicago Cubs. The Nationals got clobbered 14-6 on Friday to open this three-game set but picked up a 5-2 win on Saturday. Washington, just 19-26 on the season, now has a chance to earn its second straight series win, after going nearly a month without one. Meanwhile, the 26-17 Cubs are in danger of losing their second straight series after going 9-0-1 over their previous 10. Tonight's pitching matchup features Kyle Hendricks (3-4, 2.86 ERA) vs Jeremy Hellickson (2-2, 6.00 ERA). Hendricks has followed his breakout 2016 season (16-8, 2.17 ERA) by going 7-5 (3.03) and 14-11 (3.44). He's just 3-4 in 2019 (team is 4-4 in his eight starts) but he's pitched way better than his record. Hendricks gave up seven runs in five innings in his final start in April, before beginning his current dominant stretch. It began with his third career shutout May 3 against St Louis (4-0), followed by back-to-back eight-inning efforts while giving up a total of just one ER (14-1 KW ratio) Washington has had trouble with the back end of its rotation and Hellickson being a prime example. He allowed five runs in five innings of a 6-2 loss to the New York Mets on Tuesday, the FOURTH time in five starts in which he's allowed five runs or more. Let's add that he has not finished six innings in SIX straight starts, Along with his 'ugly' 6.00 ERA, he owns a 1.67 WHIP and .289 BAA. Making matters worse, the former Rookie of the Year (2011 seems like 'light years' ago!) has an 8.04 ERA and 1.79 WHIP through his first four appearances (three starts) at home in 2019. As noted above, expect Hendricks to bring his "A-game" (team has won his last three starts with Hendricks posting an 0.36 ERA) and note that he also owns a 2.75 ERA in nine career starts vs Washington, with the Cubs going 7-2. The top-four batters in the Cubs' lineup went a combined 1-for-14 on Saturday but that WON'T happen here, vs the sad-sack Hellickson. Cubs win! Cubs win! Good luck...Larry |
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05-19-19 | Brewers -119 v. Braves | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
My 9* Pitching Mismatch is on the Mil Brewers at 1:20 ET. Atlanta Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman has hit safely in four straight contests after going 2-for-5 with a lead-off HR in the 10th inning on Saturday that gave the Braves a 4-3 triumph over the Milwaukee Brewers and extended their winning streak to four games. The Brewers were able to send the game to extra innings by tying things up in the ninth but finished 2-for-13 with runners in scoring position and suffered their second straight loss after winning NINE of their previous 12 games. Taking the mound on Sunday will be Brandon Woodruff (6-1, 3.72 ERA) and Mike Foltynewicz (0-3, 8.02 ERA). Woodruff opened the season with a 5-3 mark in 27 career appearances (just 12 starts) but has been a HUGE part of Milwaukee’s early success this season. He can become the first National League pitcher to record seven wins with a victory here, as the Brewers have gone 7-2 (+$451) in his nine 2019 starts, so far. He enters this contest 4-0 with 1.23 ERA over his last four, allowing only three runs and 17 hits in 22 innings with 27 strikeouts. Woodruff will be facing the Braves for the first time,. Foltynewicz was 13-10 with a 2.85 in 2018, finishing eighth in the NL Cy Young award voting while placing sixth in strikeouts (202) and ERA. However, he pitched just two innings in spring training due to right elbow soreness. After posting a 6.11 ERA while going 1-1 in four minor-league rehab starts for Triple-A Gwinnett, he made his season debut on April 27. He has allowed eight HRs over 21.1 innings in four starts in 2019, after surrendering a career-worst eight runs on seven hits (including three HRs) and three walks in 4.2 innings of a 14-3 loss to St Louis on Tuesday. Foltynewicz has yet to allow fewer than four runs in any of his four starts in 2019! In contrast, Woodruff is 4-0 and has not allowed more than ONE run in anyof his last four starts (1.23 ERA). Yes, Foltynewicz is 2-2 with a 2.90 ERA in six career games (five starts) vs the Brewers but he's currently NOT that pitcher! Good luck...Larry |
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05-18-19 | Astros v. Red Sox +101 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:15 ET. The Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox met last night in a battle between the last two World Series champions. Rick Porcello had shut out the Astros through seven innings but Jake Marisnick doubled leading off the eighth and George Springer followed with his league-leading 17th HR to turn a 1-0 deficit into a 2-1 advantage. Houston's bullpen finished off a 3-1 victory for the Astros, as Ryan Pressly set a major league record with his 39th consecutive scoreless appearance in the eighth and Roberto Osuna made it through a shaky ninth for his 11th save.The Astros have won won 10 in row, giving them MLB's best record at 30-15. The Red Sox had entered the game winners of 12 of 15 but went a horrendous 1-for-11 with RISP to leave 10 men on base! The pitching matchup for the middle game of this three-game set will be Corbin Martin (1-0, 3.38 ERA) vs Hector Velazquez (1-2, 3.95 ERA). Martin made his major league debut against Texas this past Sunday and allowed just two runs on three hits and one walk over 5.1 innings (also had nine Ks) to earn the victory (Astros won 15-5). The effort did not come as a shocker, as Martin had posted a 1.48 ERA in five games, including four start, for Triple-A Round Rock while striking out 28 in 24 innings before being recalled.Velazquez will be making his seventh start in his 13 appearance of 2019. He just went a season-high five innings in last Sunday's 11-2 win over Seattle, allowing two runs. He owns a 4.19 ERA as a starter, with Boston going 4-2 (Red Sox have won his last THREE starting assignments). As noted above, Boston entered last night's game 12-3 over their last 15 plus the Red Sox had been 8-1 in home night games vs right-handers, as well. Again, as noted above, the Red Sox floundered at the plate in going 1 of 11 with RISP. DO NOT expect a repeat-performance, against a rookie making just his second career start and FIRST here in Fenway. Good luck...Larry |
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05-18-19 | Mets -119 v. Marlins | 0-2 | Loss | -119 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekend Wipeout is on the NY Mets at 4:10 ET. 'Sevens were wild" for the Miami Marlins as they not only entered Friday with the worst record in MLB but they had lost SEVEN straight games overall and SEVEN in a row to the New York Mets. However, after being shut out in back-to-back games Tuesday and Wednesday by in-state rival Tampa Bay, the Marlins pounded reigning Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom for seven runs (in just five innings) in Friday's 8-6 victory. It was just the Marlins 11th win in 42 games this season. Pete Alonso hit a pair of HRs for the Mets but it wasn't enough to prevent the Mets from losing for the first time in SIX matchups against Miami this year. Today's pitching matchup features Steven Matz (3-2, 3.86 ERA) for New York and Pablo Lopez (2-5, 5.93 ERA) for Miami. Matz returns to the rotation following a two-week stint on the injured list (radial nerve discomfort) and will make his second start of the year in Miami. He gave up three runs (one earned) over 5.1 innings in a no-decision on April 1 (Mets won, 7-3). Matz is 3-2 with a 2.70 ERA in nine career starts vs Miami (team is 6-3). Lopez is back on the mound after the worst start of his career last week in New York, when the Mets shelled him for 10 runs and 10 hits (including three HRs) over a season-low three innings. I will note that he had recorded a pair of superb outings in his previous three starts, blanking Atlanta on three hits over six innings on May 5 and permitting just an unearned run over 6.1 innings at Cleveland on April 23. Lopez CAN'T be as bad again but as noted above, Matz has a good history against Miami. What's more, except for an 'ugly' outing at Philadelphia on April 16 in which he failed to record an out (was charged with EIGHT runs in a 14-3 loss), he has been New York's most consistent pitcher, allowing three runs or less in SIX of his seven starts (Mets are 5-1 in those six starts). If there isn't enough already to go against Miami, I'll add that the Marlins are just 2-7 when facing a lefty in 2019, averaging only 3.2 RPG, after going 12-26 vs lefties in 2018. Good luck...Larry |
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05-18-19 | Rays -121 v. Yankees | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (AL East) is on the TB Rays at 1:05 ET. The defending champion Red Sox limped out of the gate but have begun to play well. However, the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees capitalized on Boston's early struggles and found themselves in a battle for the AL East's top spot with the opening of a three-game series in the Bronx this weekend. Tampa Bay has been atop the division all season but entered Friday 26-15, just a half-game up on New York. The Yankees have overcome a 6-9 start and despite being ravaged by injuries (including to prominent names such as Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge), climbed back into the race at 26-16 by going 20-7 since April 16. In Friday's contest, New York entered the ninth inning down 3-1, before rallying for three runs off Tampa Bay closer Jose Alvarado. The Yankees are now winners of nine of their last 11 and jumped a half-game ahead of the Rays at 27-16 (Rays are 26-16). Blake Snell (3-4, 3.56 ERA) takes the mound for Tampa Bay on Saturday afternoon, opposed by New York's Masahiro Tanaka (3-3, 3.44 ERA). The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner struck out 12 in just 5.2 innings against New York at home last Sunday but suffered the loss in a game Tampa Bay dropped 7-1 (he allowed just two runs on four hits). Snell has been a hard-luck pitcher this season, as he's received a total of SIX runs of support in his four losses. Tanaka won opposite Snell last Sunday, scattering one run and five hits over seven innings while striking out seven. He is 9-4 with a 3.54 ERA in 15 career starts against the Rays (Yanks are 11-4) but I have to go with Snell in this quick "re-hook." Snell may be just 3-4 (team is 3-5 in his eight starts) but as noted above, he's gotten almost NO support when losing. That doesn't figure to happen all year. A closer look at Snell's 2019 performance reveals a 62-11 KW ratio in 43 innings, an 0.98 WHIP and a .203 BAA. Snell and the Rays are the play.. Good luck...Larry |
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05-17-19 | Dodgers -124 v. Reds | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Dodgers at 7:10 ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers play Friday night in Cincinnati against the Reds, as the teams open a three-game weekend series. The 29-16 Dodgers have opened a 4 1/2-game lead in the NL West (LA has won the division SIX consecutive seasons), coming off a 7-2 homestand and having won 14 times in their last 19 overall contests. The Reds opened the season 1-8 and sat just 5-12, after getting swept in LA by the Dodgers from April 15-17. However, after beating the Cubs 4-2 in Thursday's rubber match between the National League Central rivals, Cincy has won two straight series and comes into Friday's contest 20-24 (15-12 since last seeing LA). Rich Hill (0-1, 4.20 ERA) takes teh mound for LA and he'll be oppose by Anthony DeSclafani (2-1, 4.17). Hill just recently rejoined LA's rotation, not making his season debut until April 28, after recovering from a sprained right knee. He suffered his first loss of 2019 against Washington on May 9, giving up three runs after facing only four batters before coasting over his final 4.2 innings. DeSclafani is unbeaten over his last six starts, although he has settled for four no-decisions in that span. That said, the Reds are 5-1 in that stretch. Zeroing in on this contest, Hill's scheduled start was moved back a day in order to face the Reds' predominantly left-handed lineup, as he's held left-handed hitters to a .154 BAA. What's more, while the Reds are somehow 9-3 vs lefties this year, they are averaging just 3.8 RPG against them (those numbers do NOT correlate). Also note that the Reds did not fare very well when they met the Dodgers in mid-April, averaging TWO runs per in getting swept in Los Angeles. The Dodgers' starting pitchers have been pretty special throughout the team's 14-5 run, going 10-1 with a 2.30 ERA and 122 strikeouts versus just 17 walks across 121.1 innings. Meanwhile, DeSclafani is 1-4 with a 4.11 ERA in five career starts vs Los Angeles and LA is 20-9 against righties this season, averaging 5.5 RPG. LA is the play. Good luck...Larry |
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05-17-19 | Astros v. Red Sox +127 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
The Houston Astros (WS camps in 2017) and the Boston Red Sox (WS champs in 2018) took turns knocking each other off in the playoffs en route to a World Series title the last two seasons. The teams meet for the first time this regular season Friday night, as the 29-15 Astros meet the 23-20 Red Sox in the opener of a three-game series. The Astros enter with MLB's best record, visiting Fenway on an EIGHT-game winning streak. The defending champs opened 2019 at just 3-9 but Boston has found its 'sea legs,' and open this series with 12 wins in its last 15 games. Friday's pitching matchup will be Gerrit Cole (4-4, 3.88 ERA) going up against Rick Porcello (3-3, 5.15 ERA). Cole produced his best ERA since 2015 with Pittsburgh and the top winning percentage of his career last season, finishing fifth in the AL Cy Young Award voting (Cole finished 2018 at 15-5, 2.88 ERA). Cole has not matched his success from last season so far, although he struck out 12 over six innings against Texas on Saturday to earn his third straight win. He does lead the majors with 86 strikeouts and has struck out at least nine in each of his last four starts. Porcello won the Cy Young award in 2016, going 22-4. However, he fell to 11-17 the following year, before bouncing back to go 17-11 last season. He opened teh current season 0-3 with an 11.12 ERA in his first three starts but is 3-0 with a 3.06 ERA in his last five outings (Red Sox have won all five!). It's NOT often one can "take a price" with Boston at home and Cole lost his lone start at Boston in the ALCS last fall, surrendering five runs (four earned) on six hits and two walks in six innings. Cole will face a Boston team that is 8-1 at home in night games vs right-handers (89% winning spot), averaging 7.4 RPG. That's the bet! Good luck...Larry |
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05-17-19 | Rays v. Yankees -112 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show | |
My 9* Late-Breaker is on the NY Yankees at 7:05 ET. The defending champion Red Sox limped out of the gate but have begun to play well. However, the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees capitalized on Boston's early struggles and find themselves in a battle for the AL East's top spot. Tampa Bay has been atop the division all season but currently sits 26-15, just a half-game up on New York. The Yankees have overcome a 6-9 start and despite being ravaged by injuries (including to prominent names such as Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge), have climbed back in the race at 26-16, having gone 20-7 since April 16. That stretch includes New York taking TWO of three last weekend at Tropicana Field. New York was rained out Monday and Tuesday but then swept Wednesday's doubleheader from the Orioles (before a Thursday off day). As for the Rays, they posted 4-0 and 1-0 shutout wins over the Miami Marlins on Tuesday and Wednesday, to kick off their five-game road trip (like NY, TB had Thursday off). Yonny Chirinos (5-1, 3.61 ERA) is expected to get the bulk of the innings after Tampa Bay utilizes an opener for the second straight game (Ryne Stanek), the 13th time this year and 67th time since the start of last season. I still don't get it? New York lefty CC Sabathia (2-1, 3.26 ERA) makes a "regular start" for the Yankees. Chirinos has made a start in four of his eight appearances in 2019 and has pitched at least five innings in six of his eight outings. He came out of the bullpen at home against New York on Saturday and surrendered two runs on four hits while earning the win in Tampa's 7-2 victory. Sabathia took the loss in that game (5 IP / 3 hits / 2 ERs) and the veteran has yet to complete six innings in any of his six starts his season. However, here's the rub. Tampa Bay is 7-6 in its last 13 games (even after that 2-0 sweep of MLB's worst team, the Marlins), after starting the season at 19-9. What is ore concerning for Tampa Bay, is that some more injuries are now starting to crop up. The Rays placed catcher Mike Zunino (left quadriceps) and ace Tyler Glasnow (right forearm soreness) on the injured list last week. In Miami, they lost catcher Anthony Bemboom to a sprained knee in the fifth inning Wednesday and he is headed to the injured list. They also lost Yandy Diaz (sore left ankle) and outfielder Guillermo Heredia (bruised right hand) Wednesday but X-rays were negative and both players are day-to-day. As for the Yankees, they are slowly getting healthier and have not only won 20 of their last 27 games but welcome the Rays to the Bronx, having won 12 of their last 15 home games. Sabathia is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in three starts at home (NYY are 3-0), striking out 13 in 15 total innings. I really like CC as he gets a shot at some "instant revenge" from last Saturday night. Yanks grab the win and move into first place! Good luck...Larry |
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05-16-19 | Cardinals v. Braves -100 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the Atl Braves at 7:20 ET. Austin Riley, one of the top-ranked prospects in the Braves minor-league system, made his big-league debut last night vs the St Louis Cards. He hit a 438-foot HR leading off the fourth inning, as the Braves won 4-0, to even this three-game series at one game apiece. It was Atlanta's FOURTH win in five games, while the Cards were limited to three hits in falling for the 10th time in their last 13 games! Taking the mound for the Cards will be veteran Adam Wainwright (3-3, 4.15 ERA), opposed by Atlanta's Julio Teheran (2-4, 4.26 ERA). The good news for Atlanta is that Wainwright has already made as many starts this season as he did in an injury-marred 2018 , when he finsihed 2-4 with a 4.56 ERA. He will make his ninth start of 2019 tonight and Wainwright has given up more than three ERs He allowed only one run on five hits with eight strikeouts and no walks in a season-best seven innings (he settled for a no-decision in the Cards' 2-1 loss) in his last outing. The Braves won three of Teheran's first four starts of 2019 but he then posted a 6.11 ERA in losing THREE in a row. However, while he's opened May wiht back-to-back no-decisions, he's allowed just five hits and on eER in those starst over 12 innings (0.75 ERA), with Atlanta winning both contests. Teheran will be making his seventh career start against St Louis. He is 2-3 with a 3.18 against the Cardinals (Braves are 3-3) and beat them 5-1 the last time he faced them, on June 29, 2018. Wainwright is 9-3 with a 3.29 ERA in 18 career games (13 starts / Cards are 10-3) against the Braves, but he hasn't faced them since August 2017. Wainwright is NOT the same pitcher these days, despite a better than expected beginning to the 2019 season. More importantly, Wainwright will be backed by a team which has lost 10 of 13. St Louis has scored 14, 17 and six runs in those three wins but a total of just 20 runs combined, in those 10 losses. The play is on Atlanta. Good luck...Larry |
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05-16-19 | A's v. Tigers +124 | 17-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Det Tigers at 1:10 ET. The Detroit Tigers were outscored 24-6 while losing three straight to Houston to begin their 10-game homestand and now welcome the Oakland A's to Comerica Park for the first of four, Thursday afternoon. The Tigers have lost 12 straight against the A's dating to May 5, 2017 but Oakland limps in off back-to-back loses at Seattle Monday and Tuesday, to open their nine-game road trip. The losses at Seattle to start the road trip, gives Oakland 11 losses in its last 12 on the road. The starting pitchers for Thursday's afternoon contest are Chris Bassitt (1-1, 2.55 ERA) and Spencer Turnbull (2-2, 2.42 ERA). Bassitt worked a season-high 7.2 innings while allowing three runs in a 3-0 loss against Cincinnati last Thursday. Bassitt's made just four starts in 2019 but despite his solid 2.55 ERA and excellent 0.97 WHIP & .189 BAA, the A's have lost THREE of the four. Turnbull started slowly for the Tigers in 2019, 0-2 with a 4.80 ERA through his first three starts (Tigers were 1-2) but he has gone 2-0 with a 1.21 ERA over his last five starts (team has won his last four outings!). Opponents are batting just .218 against the 26-year-old Turnbull in 2019. While Turnbull has never faced Oakland, Bassitt is 2-2 with a 4.56 ERA in four career starts vs Detroit. I noted that the A's have drooped 11 of their last 12 on the road (now sit just 5-15 on the road on the season) but I'll add that the A's are a woeful 3-12 (an 80% "go-against") this season vs right-handers on the road. The right-handed Turnbull will be tough to beat. Say 'good-bye' to Detroit's 12-game losing streak to Oakland. Good luck...Larry |
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05-16-19 | Brewers v. Phillies -112 | 11-3 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on the Phi Phillies at 1:05 ET. The Milwaukee Brewers followed a seven-game winning streak by losing Sat and Sun in Wrigley against the Cubs and then made it THREE straight loses in Monday's 7-4 loss at Philly. However, the Brewers have rebounded win back-to-back games Tuesday (6-1) and Wednesday (5-2), giving them NINE wins in their last 12. The host Philadelphia Phillies look to salvage a split of this four-game series Thursday afternoon, looking to end a two-game skid after having won 11 of their previous 15. Zach Davies (4-0, 1.54 ERA) takes the mound for Milwaukee and will be opposed By Philly's Zach Eflin (5-3, 2.47 ERA). For the most part, Davies has put last year's injury-plagued season behind him (2-7, 4.77 ERA in 13 starts / team was 5-8). Davies worked into the seventh inning for the third time this season on Saturday, allowing just one run on six hits in a no-decision at the Chicago Cubs (team lost 2-1 in 15 innings). He's yet to lose in eight starts and has not allowed more than two runs in any of those starts. That said, he faces a red-hot mound opponent in Eflin. He became the majors' first pitcher with two complete games this season and recorded his second career shutout after scattering four hits and striking out seven in Saturday's 7-0 win at Kansas City. He also notched a complete game against Miami on April 28, highlighting a 3-0 mark with a 1.39 ERA in his last three starts. Eflin has also made eight starts in 2019 (team is 5-3, the same as Davies) and he's allowed more than two ERs just TWO times (in one, he allowed three runs). I'm backing Philly and Eflin here, because while Davies is 3-0 with an 0.76 ERA at Miller Park, he's won just ONE of his four road starts this season (team is 2-2). Let me also add that in two career starts vs Philly, he owns a 7.15 ERA. Meanwhile, Eflin is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his two career starts against the Brewers, plus he's a PERFECT 3-0 in three home starts this season (1.17 ERA / 0.83 WHIP). Good luck...Larry |
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05-15-19 | Padres v. Dodgers -153 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show | |
My 7* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Dodgers at 10:10 ET. The Dodgers beat the Padres 6-3 last night and will conclude their brief two-game series with NL West rival San Diego tonight at Dodger Stadium. Cody Bellinger homered and drove in three runs in Tuesday's win, raising his major league-leading batting average to .409. He tops the majors with 41 RBI and is third with 15 HRs, one behind co-leaders Christian Yelich of Milwaukee and George Springer of Houston. Los Angeles(no w 28-16) won for the 13th time in 18 games, as 22-20 San Diego lost for the fourth time in its last six, with Padre pitchers allowing 35 runs in the FOUR losses. San Diego lefty Matt Strahm (1-2, 3.00 ERA) takes the mound up against LA's Kenta Maeda (4-2, 4.03 ERA). Strahm entered this season with just EIGHT starts among his 86 career appearances. However, all of his seven 2019 appearances have been in the role of a starter. After being roughed up for five runs in just 2.2 innings by Arizona in his season debut, he has two ERs or less in SIX straight outings! Strahm has posted a 1.50 ERA in four career appearances (one start) against the Dodgers. Maeda ended his three-start winless stretch in his last start, giving up one hit over six scoreless innings in a 5-0 victory over Washington last Wednesday. He is 5-3 with a 4.55 ERA in 14 career appearances (12 starts / team is 7-5) vs San Diego. There is nothing bad to say about Strahm's efforts but Maeda was moved into Wednesday's starting slot ahead of a struggling Rich Hill, as he was preferred against the Padres over Hill. The Padres scored four runs in four innings off Maeda the last time they faced him (May 5) but following an RBI double by Greg Garcia, Maeda retired the last eight batters he faced. " I had a good feeling on my pitches around the fifth and sixth innings in my outing at San Diego," Maeda said through an interpreter after his start against the Nationals (see above). "The biggest difference was my slider. I had a good feeling on the break and I was able to carry that over (Friday)." Also note that his start prior to the one against San Diego, Maeda pitched five scoreless innings vs San Francisco. Maeda will face a San Diego lineup that has averaged only 3.2 RPG in 19 contests this season vs right-hnaders in night games. Dodger Stadium is NO place for those bats to 'get well." As for Strahm, he faces a Dodger lineup that is averaging 5.79 RPG at home, helping LA to an 18-6 home mark. Good luck...Larry |
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05-15-19 | Rockies v. Red Sox -134 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:10 ET. Colorado and Boston will conclude a two-game interleague series Wednesday night at Fenway. Last night, as Colorado snapped Boston's five-game winning streak. An 11th-inning RBI single was the difference in the 5-4 victory for the Rockies. Colorado prevailed despite tying a franchise mark by striking out an incredible 24 times! Boston lost, despite setting a major league record by registering 21 strikeouts in nine innings, including 17 from ace Chris Sale, the most ever recorded by a pitcher in seven frames. Tonight's pitching matchup will feature German Marquez (4-2, 3.43 ERA) of Colorado, going up against Boston lefty, Eduardo Rodriguez (4-2, 4.53). Marquez tied a season high by allowing 10 hits his last time out but he only gave up two runs while striking out seven over 5.2 innings in a victory over the San Diego Padres. That marked only the THIRD time in nine starts this season that he failed to pitch at least six innings but be aware he that he had allowed nine runs and three HRs over previous two starts. As for Rodriguez. since getting rocked for 12 runs (11 earned) and 16 hits in losing his first two starts of the season (12.38 ERA), he is 4-0 with a 2.78 ERA over his last six starts (Red Sox are a PERFECT 6-0!). He is coming off his best effort of 2019, tossing seven scoreless innings against Seattle on Friday in a 4-1 win. It was the third time in four starts he allowed one run or less and marked the fourth time during his unbeaten streak that he worked six innings. Marquez has been steady all season for Colorado but Rodriguez has settled in after an 'ugly' start. It's not too hard to remember that the Red Sox went 19-4 in his starts in 2018, giving him MLB's sixth-best moneyline mark (+$1,387). He's 3-0 in four home starts in 2019 (team is 4-0), with a 2.59 ERA, while holding opposing hitters to a .193 batting average. He takes the mound for a team that is 7-1 in home night games against righties this season, averaging 7.6 RPG. Pretty easy to back Boston and Rodriguez in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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05-15-19 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks -152 | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
My 7* Daytime Dominator is on the Arz D'backs at 3:40 ET. Josh Bell hit two HRs and extended his hitting streak to a career-high 14 games in Tuesday’s 6-2 win at Arizona, as the Pirates snapped a nine-game losing streak against the Diamondbacks. Arizona was held to four hits and fell to 2-4 on its 10-game homestand. The Diamondbacks have scored three runs or less in EIGHT of their first 13 games of May. The rubber match of this three-game series goes late this afternoon at Chase Field. Chris Archer (1-2, 4.33 ERA) will take the mound for Pittsburgh and Zack Greinke (5-1, 3.16 ERA) for Arizona. Archer landed on the injured list with inflammation in the thumb on his pitching hand back on April 27 but is set to return here. Archer struggled in three starts before the injury, going 0-2 with a 5.63 ERA (Pittsburgh lost all three games). Archer is facing Arizona for the first time since 2016 and owns a 1-0 record and 4.70 ERA in two career starts vs the Diamondbacks (teams are 1-1). Greinke is coming off an EIGHTH straight quality start last Friday, holding Atlanta to one run and five hits over seven innings. Greinke did not factor in Arizona's 2-1 loss to Atlanta nor did he in his previous start at Colorado. He gave up three runs on six hits over six innings and left that contest with a 5-3 lead which Arizona extended to 7-3, before the bullpen allowed a five-run eighth in an 8-7 loss. Archer has been a long-time underachiever while Greinke, comes in 5-0 with a 2.19 ERA and 54-6 KW ratio over his last eight starts covering 53.1 innings (team is 6-2). Greinke owns a 9-4 record and 4.17 ERA in 14 career starts vs Pittsburgh (teams are 10-4), including 4-1 with a 2.20 mark over his last five outings As noted above, Arizona had won NINE consecutive games against Pittsburgh, dating to last season, before being held to four hits in Tuesday's loss. However, I won't ignore the fact that the D'backs have won 13 of their last 15 against the Pirates going back to 2017. That's an 87% win rate. Good luck...Larry |
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05-14-19 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks -146 | 6-2 | Loss | -146 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Arz D'backs at 9:40 ET. The Pirates entered Monday night's opener of a three-game series with Arizona having won eight of their last 11 games, including sweeping the final three contests of a four-game series in St Louis against the Cards.However, Arizona took last night's contest 9-3, giving the D'backs a 5-0 record against the Pirates in 2019 and a run of NINE consecutive wins against Pittsburgh dating to last season. Taking the mound Tuesday night will be Pittsburgh's Joe Musgrove (1-4, 4.20 ER) and Arizona's Luke Weaver (3-1, 2.98 ERA). Musgrove took the mound against Oakland back on May 3 with a 1.54 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and .192 BAA through his first five starts of 2019. However, he was battered for seven runs (five earned) and six hits while lasting only 2.2 innings of a 14-1 loss to Oakland on May 3. He then followed that effort by allowing eight ERs in just three innings of last Friday's 17-4 loss at St Louis. Is it fair to say "he's come back to earth?" Weaver was a late first-round draft pick by St. Louis in 2014 but he was just 7-11 with a 4.95 ERA last season with the Cardinals, before being part of the Paul Goldschmidt trade in the off-season. He's added a cut fastball to his fastball/changeup mix and it seems to be working. Weaver in the midst of his best stretch of his major league career with a 1.82 ERA in his past five starts. I went against Musgrove his last time out and noted at the time that I expected more outings like his May 3 outing vs Oakland. I was right (see recap above). In contrast, Weaver is in the middle of his best stretch ever (see above). Want more? I noted already that Arizona has won NINE if a row over Pittsburgh but will add that the D'backs have won 13 of their last 14 against the Pirates going back to 2017. That's a cool 93%. Enough said! Good luck...Larry |
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05-14-19 | Rays -122 v. Marlins | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the TB Rays at 7:10 ET. Florida rivals Tampa Bay and Miami meet for the first time this year on Tuesday night, in the opener of a brief tow-game interleague series. The Rays got off to a quick 11-3 start in 2019 and remain atop the AL East at 24-19, although the Yankees are just a half-game back and the Red Sox just three back. As for the Marlins, they seemed destined for the major league 'basement,' as they own MLB's worst record (10-29) and its second-worst moneyline mark (-$1,287). Tonight's pitching matchup would not be a considered a "marquee" one but is sure is a good one. Charlie Morton (3-0, 2.64 ERA) takes the Mound for Tampa Bay and Caleb Smith (3-0, 2.11 ERA) for Miami. Morton spent his first nine years in the National League and sported a 46-71 record. However, he arrived in Tampa Bay this spring (as a free agent), after registering his best two seasons in the majors with Houston, going 29-10 with a 3.36 ERA in 55 starts. He won a World Series title with the Houston Astros in 2017 and made his first All-Star team in 2018. Caleb Smith is in just his second full major league season He wasn't a top draft pick (14th round) and didn't go to a big-name university (Sam Houston State). He entered the 2-019 season having made 25 appearances (18 starts) with a 5-7 record and 4.88 ERA. However, after two no-decisions to open the season (Miami lost both games), Smith has a 1.42 ERA with 41 strikeouts and nine walks in 31.2 innings. He's 3-0 and Miami is 4-1. Smith owns an 0.89 WHIP and a .176 BAA on the season. Here's the rub. Smith's shown no weak spots but Morton has been everything Tampa Bay had hoped he'd be (2.64 ERA / .208 BAA / 11.4 Ks per nine innings). As noted at the top, the Yanks and Red Sox are now breathing down Tampa's neck and the Rays don't want to miss an opportunity to grab two wins against MLB's worst team. The Marlins rank last in runs scored (2.69 per), OPS (.592) and HRs (124), plus just 27th in team BA (.219). The Rays own MLB's best road record (12-5) and get the job done, here! Good luck...Larry |
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05-14-19 | Brewers v. Phillies +102 | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Phi Phillies at 7:05 ET. The Philadelphia Phillies made it SIX wins in their last eight games with Monday's 7-4 victory over the visiting Milwaukee Brewers. For the Brewers, Monday's defeat was the team's THIRD in a row, following a seven-game winning streak. Milwaukee's bats showed some 'life' last night with 12 hits and four runs, after Milwaukee had scored just TWO runs over its last 24 innings in a 2-1 Saturday loss (15 innings) and 4-1 Sunday loss to the Cubs. The 24-16 Phillies will be looking for a fourth straight victory when they host the 24-19 Brewers in the second game of a four-game series on Tuesday night. The Brewers will hand the ball to Brandon Woodruff (5-1, 4.25 ERA) and the Phillies will counter with Jerad Eickhoff (2-1, 1.50 ERA). Woodruff has allowed just three ERs over the last 16 innings of his three previous starts (1.69 ERA), winning each outing. It represents quite an improvement from the 5.81 ERA he posted in his first five starts of 2019, Eichoff's first start of 2019 didn't come until April 16. The Phils have won FOUR of those five starts and like Woodruff, Eickhoff comes in on an impressive three-start stretch. He has allowed just ONE one earned run over his last 20 innings, going 2-0 with an 0.45 ERA (Phils are 3-0). I played the Phillies last night and will be on them again tonight, atb this great price. They are 15-7 at home, averaging 5.8 RPG and on the season have gone 21-11 vs right-handers, including 13-5 at home. Good luck...Larry |
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05-13-19 | A's v. Mariners -120 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (AL West) is on the Sea Mariners at 10:10 ET. The Seattle Mariners and Oakland A's opened the 2019 MLB season back on March 20 and 21 in Tokyo, Japan. The Mariners won both games, jump-starting the team's 13-2 start. However, as the Mariners welcome the A's to Seattle for a two-game set Monday and Tuesday, the Mariners sit just 20-23 (doing the math, that's a 7-21 record since their blistering start). The A's, who won 97 games last year to claim a wild card spot (Oakland was MLB's top money-maker in 2018 at +$3,663), come in just 19-23. Even at this early stage, it's hard to see either team challenging the Astros in the NL West, as Seattle is currently seven games back of Houston, while Oakland sits 7 1/2 games back. Monday's pitching matchup features Mike Fiers (3-3, 5.48 ERA) and Yusei Kikuchi (2-1, 3.54 ERA). Fiers clearly has a tough act to follow, as he tossed his second career no-hitter and 300th in Major League Baseball history in his last outing. Fiers threw 131 pitches in Tuesday's 2-0 win over Cincinnati, a total that was the most in a no-hitter since he needed 134 when he silenced the Los Angeles Dodgers on Aug 21, 2015. Fiers was 17-9 in 2018 (Det & Oak), finishing as MLB's top money-earner (21-9 in starts, +$1,879). However, 2019 has NOT gone as well, as entering his no-hitter last Tuesday, Fiers ERA sat at 6.81. Kikuchi, a Japan native, is a 2019 rookie. He pitched in Japan against the A's, lasting 4.2 innings while allowing two runs (one earned) in a 5-4 Seattle win (settled for a no-decision). Kikuchi has had his ups and downs in his first season but he comes in having allowed one run on three hits in each of his last two starts (14.2 IP / 1.23 ERA / 13-2 KW ratio). The Mariners have NOT played well at home in 2019 but the team HAS to be glad to return to Seattle after getting swept in Fenway this past weekend by the Red Sox, getting outscored, 34-8. I've always looked to "go-against" a pitcher coming off a no-hitter and in Fiers case, I'm going against a pitcher who in four road starts in 2019, has lasted just 18.2 innings while allowing 25 hits and 17 ERs. That gives him an 8.20 road ER and 1.66 WHIP! Good luck...Larry |
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05-13-19 | Brewers v. Phillies -144 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
My 8* Late-Breaker is on the Phi Phillies at 7:05 ET. The Philadelphia Phillies have won FIVE of their last seven contests, including the last two of their three-game series in Kansas City by a combined 13-1 score. In fact. Philly has allowed just THREE total runs in those last five victories! The Phillies return to Philadelphia and will begin a seven-game homestand with a four-game series against the 24-18 Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers began their 10-game road trip with a SEVENTH consecutive win (7-0 Friday at Wrigley) bu then lost the final two contests of their three-game series in Chicago by scoring just TWO runs in Saturday and Sunday losses to the Cubs. Saturday's game lasted 15 innings, so Milwaukee opens this series having scored just TWO runs over its last 24 innings! Freddy Peralta (2-1, 6.75 ERA) takes the mound for the Brewers and Aaron Nola (3-0, 4.57 ERA) for the Phils. Peralta will be making his sixth start of the season but his first since May 2, when he was pummeled for NINE runs (six earned) on eight hits and three walks over just four innings of an 11-6 home loss to Colorado. He came out of the bullpen last Tuesday, giving up three hits with two walks and five strikeouts over five scoreless innings to earn the win in a 6-0 Milwaukee victory over Washington. Peralta has never has faced Philadelphia. Nola is coming off a career season in 2018, going 17-6 with a 2.37 ERA (Phils went 22-11 in all of his starts, going +$983 vs the moneyline). Nola struggled to get untracked in the early going of his Opening Day start vs Atlanta, surrendering an RBI single in the second inning and issuing a career-high five walks before settling down to pick up the win in a 10-4 victory against Atlanta. He then suffered through three straight rough starts (all no-decisions but Philly losses), allowing 15 ERs on 19 hits in just 13.1 inning s (10.13 ERA). However, he remains unbeaten after eights starts in 2019. His last four starts have seen him go 2-0 (team is 3-1). He's looked like the Nola of 2018 in his last three, allowing just three ERs over 18.1 innings for a 1.47 ERA. What's more, he's 3-0 with a 2.37 ERA in five career starts vs Milwaukee (team is 4-1). Philadelphia is 14-7 at home in 2019, averaging 5.71 RPG. The Philly lineup will face Peralta, who takes a 6.75 ERA and 1.61 WHIP into this contest. Expect Nola to stay unbeaten in 2019 and unbeaten in his career vs Milwaukee. Good luck...Larry |
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05-13-19 | Astros v. Tigers +150 | 8-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Det Tigers at 7:10 ET. The Houston Astros opened the 2019 season 2-5 but Sunday's 15-5 rout of the Texas Rangers was the Astros' FIFTH consecutive win and their EIGHTH in their last nine. Houston opens a three-game series at the Detroit Tigers on Monday with a 26-15 record, giving them a 6 1/2 game lead in the AL West (the largest lead of any division in MLB). Houston is averaging 8.2 runs during its 8-1 stretch and has hit 28 HRs over its last 10 contests (75 HRs on the season ranks 2nd). In contrast, the Tigers are at the other end of the spectrum when it comes to power with an American League-low 32 HRs, although they hit two in Sunday's 5-3 win at Minnesota to gain a split of the four-game series. Detroit sits 18-20, 6 1/2 games back of the first-place Twins in the AL Central. Taking the mound on Monday night will be Brad Peacock (3-2, 4.30 ERA) and Matthew Boyd (4-2, 2.86). Peacock delivered a stellar performance against Kansas City in his last outing, tossing seven scoreless innings and striking out 12 in a 9-0 home win over Kansas City. He decided to pitch out of a full delivery for the first time in three seasons and it paid off. He went 13-2 (3.00 ERA) when the Astros won the 2017 World Series,making 34 appearances, including 21 starts. However, he made just ONE start in 2018, in 61 appearances (mostly used in middle-relief, as he had just three saves). He's made SIX starts in eight appearances in 2019 and has been so-so, prior to his most recent outing. Peacock's "opposite number" tonight will be Boyd, who has been VERY good in 2019. It seems he has found the consistency that eluded him during a breakout 2018 season, when Boyd allowed two runs or fewer in 17 of 31 starts in 2018 but still finished with a 4.39 ERA. Boyd has been incredibly consistent since allowing four runs (three earned) in his season-opener. He's posted SEVEN consecutive quality starts entering this contest and has allowed just 36 hits over 50.1 innings this season, with 63 strikeouts against only 11 walks (owns an 0.93 WHIP and .197 BAA in 2019). I'm sold on Boyd but as for Peacock, not so much. I also like Boyd facing a team coming off a contest in which it established season highs in runs (15) and hits (18) on Sunday. We're getting a "nice price" on this 'LIVE' home underdog. Good luck...Larry |
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05-12-19 | Brewers v. Cubs -138 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (NL Central) is on the Chi Cubs at 7:05 ET. The Cubs evened their series with the Brewers by earning a 2-1 victory in 15 innings on Saturday (Milwaukee won 7-0 in Friday's opener). Chicago's 'marathon win' gives them a 23-14 record and leaves Milwaukee at 24-17, meaning the Cubs are back on top in the NL Central. Milwaukee's loss snapped a seven-game winning streak for the Brewers. Meanwhile, Chicago's walk-off win was its THIRD by walk-off HR in the last five games and the Cubs enter Sunday having won 11 of their last 13. Jhoulys Chacin (3-3, 5.03 ERA) takes the mound for Milwaukee in this rubber game of the three-game set and will be opposed by Chicago's Jon Lester (2-1, 1.41 ERA). Chacin found a home in his first season with Milwaukee, posting a career high in wins (15-8, 3.50 ERA), then notched a pair of victories in the postseason. Milwaukee was 23-12 in all of his regular season starts, going plus-$1,079 vs the moneyline. However, his 2019 season season has not resembled last year. The Brewers won his first two starts but then lost his next FOUR. He has been solid in his last two, allowing just two ERs over 11 innings (1.64 ERA), both of which were Milwaukee wins. He does have a 2.81 ERA in 11 career starts vs Chicago but his teams are just 5-6 in those games. Lester has been outstanding in three starts since returning from the injured list, allowing three runs (one earned) over 18 innings with 19 strikeouts (0.50 ERA). In fact, the 35-year-old vet has not allowed more than two runs in any of his six starts this season. Along with his excellent ERA of 1.41, he owns a 1.03 WHIP and a BAA of .215. Lester is 4-3 with a 2.66 ERA in eight starts against Milwaukee (teams are 5-3). Both teams’ bullpens were taxed Saturday, as the Cubs used seven relievers and the Brewers used six.That purts extra presure on tonight's startser and that surely favors the Cubs. Lester owns a 179-99 record with a 3.47 ERA in his 14-season career, ranking fourth in victories among active pitchers! Chicago has not lost a series since dropping two of three at Milwaukee from April 5-7, so why expect them to lose the rubber game of this series, tonight? The Cubs are 14-6 at home in 2019, allowing opponents just 2.95 RPG. Good luck...Larry |
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05-12-19 | Reds v. Giants -110 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the SF Giants at 4:05 ET. The Cincinnati Reds opened the 2019 season 0-7 on the road but have come to San Francisco this weekend and won 7-0 and 5-4. They squandered a three-run, first-inning lead on Saturday but after after falling behind 4-3, rebounded for a one-run victory. The Reds are now 9-7 on the road since that 0-7 start and will attempt to complete a sweep of their three-game series against the Giants on Sunday. Meanwhile, San Francisco looks to avoid a fourth consecutive loss, after surrendering a total of 24 runs in its last three. Sunday's pitching matchup will feature Tyler Mahle (0-5, 3.69 ERA) and Madison Bumgarner (2-4, 3.99 ERA). Mahle has given up fewer than two runs in four of his seven starts this season, including each of his last two, but still is without a victory. He will be making his sixth consecutive road start and seventh overall this year, in what will be his eighth start of 2019. Mahle lost his lone career start vs the Giants back on May 15, 2018 in San Francisco, where he surrendered four runs and seven hits in 3.1 innings Bumgarner, a former World Series MVP, could be making one of his final starts for the Giants, as the free-agent-to-be reportedly submitted a no-trade list to management that includes eight teams. Bumgarner has had an up-and-down season so far, but earned a 14-4 win at Colorado on Tuesday, after not getting a decision in a 2-1 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 1. He's allowed just four ERs in 12 innings in those two starts. Mahle's two May starts have been brilliant, yet losers. He almost matched Noah Syndergaard for five innings, allowing one run on four hits, in a 1-0 loss at New York on May 2. Five days later, he pitched even better, allowing one run on three hits in six innings, but his "opposite number," Mike Fiers, pitched a no-hitter Tuesday in Oakland. The Reds have scored a total of just NINE runs in his seven starts this season. Now, his hard-luck season continues when he draws Giants ace Madison Bumgarner, looking for the Reds to sweep San Francisco. That's a TALL order, as the Reds are averaging only 3.26 RPG in their 23 road games this season (9-14, overall). I say "no sweep here," in a Bumgarner 'showcase!' Good luck...Larry |
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05-12-19 | Pirates v. Cardinals -148 | 10-6 | Loss | -148 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
My 7* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the StL Cards at 2:15 ET. The Pittsburgh Pirates were on their way to a fourth consecutive victory on Wednesday, leading 6-2 into the eighth inning. However, a bullpen 'meltdown' led to four run sin the 8th and three more in the ninth, as the Rangers beat the Pirates, 9-6. The Pirates began their longest trip of the season (11 games trip) Thursday in St Louis and got clobbered, 17-4. However, Pittsburgh bounced back from that shellacking to eke out back-to-back 2-1 wins. The Pirates have managed a total of just eight runs over the past three games against Cardinals but have a chance on Sunday (with a victory) to post a rare road series win over their NL Central rivals. The Cards stranded 10 and were 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position on Friday and then had just two hits on Saturday. St Louis has now dropped EIGHT of 10 overall. Sunday's pitching matchup features Pittsburgh's Steven Brault (0-1, 7.11 ERA) vs St Louis' Dakota Hudson (2-3, 4.63 ERA). Pittsburgh's pitching injuries gave Brault an opportunity to make his first start of 2019 last Sunday. He acquitted himself well against Texas, giving up a pair of runs on a two-run HR and two hits while striking out five over a season-high four inning. He did not factor in the decision, a 5-3 Pirates' win in 13 innings. Hudson is a former first-round draft pick. He pitched five innings in his last outing against Philly but did not get much get support from his defense, as he was charged with eight runs but only two were earned. He had pitched considerably better in his previous start, striking out a season-high seven and giving up two runs (one earned) in six innings at Washington in a hard-luck 2-1 loss. Hudson makes his first career start vs Pittsburgh but has not allowed a run in four relief appearances against the Pirates. As for Brault, he has primarily been a reliever in his career, with 51 of his 61 appearances over the past three seasons coming out of the bullpen. Injuries to Pittsburgh's starting staff have provided Brault an opportunity in the rotation but I'm not sure he's ready for primetime (last Sunday, notwithstanding). Thursday's 17-4 drubbing was the 19th road loss in 24 games in the series for Pittsburgh, before the Pirates rebounded to post a pair of 2-1 victories Friday and Saturday. I am NOT about to call for them to make it THREE straight road wins at St Louis. Expect the St Louis bats to 'wake up' against Brault. Good luck...Larry |
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05-11-19 | Reds v. Giants +118 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the SF Giants at 9:05 ET. The Cincinnati Reds opened the season 0-7 on the road but after recording consecutive shutout wins for the first time since 2016, the Reds continue their six-game road trip with the middle contest of this three-game series at Oracle Park with the Giants. Luis Castillo struck out 11 batters over six scoreless innings in Friday’s 7-0 victory, which was preceded by Tanner Roark and three relievers combining on a six-hitter as Cincinnati blanked the Oakland Athletics 3-0 on Thursday. The Reds sit at 17-22 on the season, while the Giants are 16-22, after losing THREE of their last four. Anthony DeSclafani (2-1, 3.65 ERA) and Jeff Samardzija (2-1, 3.16 ERA) will oppose each other Saturday night. DeSclafani has pitched well over his last four starts, going 2-0 with a 1.52 ERA and 28 strikeouts across 23.2 innings (Reds are 4-0). He is 2-1 with a 6.23 ERA in four career starts versus San Francisco (Reds are 3-1, despite his high ERA), including a 12-4 victory Monday back in Cincinnati. Samardzija allowed four runs over five innings in a no-decision against Cincinnati last Sunday, He allowed three HRs in the first inning of that contest but then settled in and retired his last 13 batters. Samardzija owns a 3-5 record with a 4.17 ERA in 27 career games (13 starts / teams are 5-8) vs the Reds. DeSclafani has missed much of the past two seasons because of injury but even with his recent hot streak, he has gone a modest 9-9 with a 4.62 ERA in his last 28 starts. As for Samardzija, the Giants have won FIVE of his seven 2019 starts. He not only owns a solid 3.16 ERA but his WHIP is 1.05 and his BAA is .215. He also should enter with a chip on his shoulder, as he allowed HRs on THREE consecutive pitches in the first inning of his start at Cincinnati last Sunday, before settling in (see above). Should Cincy really be the road favorite here? Even with Friday's 7-0 win, the Reds are averaging just 3.1 RPG on the road vs right-handed starters. Home dog barks LOUDLY in this one! Good luck...Larry. |
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05-11-19 | Pirates v. Cardinals -163 | 2-1 | Loss | -163 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
My 7* Daytime Dominator is on the StL Cards at 2:15 ET. The Pittsburgh Pirates were on their way to a fourth consecutive victory on Wednesday, leading 6-2 into the eighth inning. However, a bullpen 'meltdown' led to four run sin the 8th and three more in the ninth, as the Rangers beat the Pirates, 9-6. The Pirates began their longest trip of the season (11 games trip) Thursday in St Louis and got clobbered, 17-4. However, Pittsburgh bounced back from that shellacking to eke out a 2-1 victory Friday night, whne Starling Marte delivered a tie-breaking single in the eighth inning. As for the Cards, one night after establishing a season-high total in runs, the Cardinals' offensive struggles returned as they stranded 10 and were 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position. St Louis has now dropped seven of its last nine games. Jordan Lyles (2-1, 2.20 ERA) takes the mound for Pittsburgh and will be opposed by the Cards' Miles Mikolas (4-2, 4.02 ERA). Lyles is coming off his longest outing of the season, lasting 6.2 innings while limiting Oakland to one run and five hits in a no-decision on Sunday (Pittsburgh won 5-3 in 13 innings). It marked the FIFTH time in six starts that he permitted two runs or less. Mikolas has looked much more like the pitcher who went 18-4 for the Cardinals last season, with strong efforts in THREE of his last four starts. He was superb his last time out vs Philadelphia, striking out five and allowing three hits over seven scoreless innings of a 6-0 StL win. Mikolas resurrected his career in Japan after flaming out in his first stint in the majors and returned last season to tie for the NL lead in victories, while finishing fourth in ERA (he was 18-4, 2.83 ERA). He walked just 29 batters in his 32 starts and went 10-1 over the final three months of the season. Mikolas was also among MLB's top money-makers last season, as the Cards were 24-8 (+$1,1418) in all of his starts. He had an awful 2019 debut (March 28), allowing five ERs in five innings at Milwaukee but the Cards are 6-1 in his last seven starts, as he's allowed three ERs or less in ALL six of the wins. Meanwhile, Lyles is nothing more than a journeyman, who has so far in 2019, pitched "over his head." Lyles is 0-3 with a 4.63 ERA in four starts against the Cards (teams are 0-4) and let me note that Pittsburgh's 2-1 win last night in St Louis was the Pirates' first in four attempts this season and just their .FIFTH win in their last 19 meetings with the Cards. Good luck...Larry |
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05-10-19 | Braves v. Diamondbacks -129 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -129 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Arz D'backs at 9:40 ET. The Arizona's David Peralta hit his sixth home run of the season with two outs in the ninth inning on Thursday, sending last night's game with Atlanta into extra innings. Then, Ketel Marte's RBI single in the 10th gave the Diamondbacks their second 3-2 victory in two days. It was a great way for Arizona to open its 10-game homestand. As for the Braves, it marked their fourth straight loss, after beginning their 10-game road trip with a three-game sweep in Miami. A pair of vets square off Friday night, Julio Teheran (2-4, 4.63 ERA) for Atlanta and Zack Greinke (5-1, 3.42 ERA) for Arizona. Teheran did end a stretch of three straight losses in his last outing but despite allowing just two hits with two walks and four strikeouts over six scoreless innings at Miami last Sunday, he settled for a no-decision (Atlanta did win, 3-1 in 10 innings). Teheran has not won since limiting the New York Mets to one run and six hits in six innings of a 7-3 win back on April 14. T Greinke also did not factor in the decision at Colorado last Sunday, when he gave up three runs on six hits over six innings. He left that contest with a 5-3 lead and Arizona extended to 7-3, before the bullpen allowed a five-run eighth in an 8-7 loss. That ended a run of six straight wins for Arizona with Greinke on the hill (2.33 ERA in that span), including him allowing just THREE runs over 27.2 innings in his previous four starts (all Greinke wins). Both Teheran (4-1, 2.58 but team is just 5-4 in his nine starts) and Greinke (4-2, 2.92 ERA but team is just 6-5 in his 11 starts) have pitched well against their respective opponents but Arizona swept a three-game series in Atlanta in April, when the Diamondbacks pounded Atlanta relievers for 11 runs on 14 hits and 10 walks in 10 innings. Last night, Atlanta's bullpen once again let the team down. Easy choice here to 'ride' the red-hot Greinke. Good luck...Larry |
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05-10-19 | Phillies -140 v. Royals | 1-5 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My 7* Pitching Mismatch is on the Phi Phillies at 8:15 ET. The Philadelphia Phillies opened of their six-game road trip through the "Show-Me" State with a 6-0 loss in St Louis against the Cards on Monday. However, the Phillies rebounded with an 11-1 win over the Cards on Tuesday and a 5-0 whitewash on Wednesday. Philly took Thursday off but will open a three-game IL series tonight in KC against the Royals. Philly's pair of dominant wins helped strengthen their standing atop the NL East at 21-15 (Phils own a four-game lead). Kansas City lost for the FIFTH time in seven outings on Wednesday's, falling 9-0 at Houston. The Royals are 13-25 (AL's worst record) and already sit 11 1/2 games out in the AL Central. Jake Arrieta (4-2, 3.40 ERA) takes the mound for Philly and Homer Bailey (3-3, 5.25 ERA) for KC. Arrieta's off to a good start in 2019, as he worked at least six innings for the SEVENTH time in eight starts on Saturday against Washington. However, he settled for a no-decision despite allowing three runs (two earned) on five hits. Arrieta owns a 2-0 mark with a 3.70 ERA in four career starts against the Royals (teams are just 2-2). Bailey snapped a two-start losing skid in which he recorded consecutive four-run outings by allowing just two runs in six innings of a 15-3 romp at Detroit on Saturday. Bailey owns a 1-4 record with a respectable 3.74 ERA in 11 career starts vs the Phillies but his teams are just 3-8 in those starts. Philly is 18-10 (averaging 5-2 RPG) against right-handers this season, while KC is juts 10-18 vs righites, including 4-10 at home. What's more, while Arrieta is not the dominant pitcher he was in going 22-6 and 18-8 for the Cubs in 2015 and 2016, he IS a quality arm. Meanwhile, Bailey is coming off a 1-14 (6.09 ERA) season in 2018, where the Reds went 1-19 in his starts (lost a MLB-high $1,748 vs the moneyline). We just saw journeyman Mike Fiers throw the second no-hitter of his his career the other day for the A's. Bailey's in that class, a pitcher who owns two career no-hittters but one who also owns a 70-80 lifetime record (4.58 ERA). This screams "pitching matchup" and it doesn't hurt that Philly is CLEARLY the better team, as well. Good luck...Larry |
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05-09-19 | Pirates v. Cardinals -133 | Top | 4-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the StL Cards at 7:45 ET. The Pittsburgh Pirates were on their way to a fourth consecutive victory on Wednesday, leading 6-2 into the eighth inning. However, a bullpen 'meltdown' led to four run sin the 8th and three more in the ninth, as the Rangers beat the Pirates, 9-6. The Pirates now head into their longest trip of the season, an 11-game trip which begins tonight in St Louis and continues through Arizona and San Diego. The Cardinals will be continuing a seven-game homestand that began with a 6-0 Monday win over Philly but that victory was followed by 13-1 and 3-0 losses (St Louis managed just three hits last night). Overall, St Louis has now lost SIX of seven, falling to 21-16 (behind both Chicago and Milwaukee in the NL Central). Pittsburgh checks in at 17-16 on the season. Joe Musgrove (1-3, 2.63 ERA) will get the ball for Pittsburgh and Michael Wacha (2-0, 5.17 ERA) for St Louis. Musgrove took the mound last Friday against Oakland with a 1.54 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and .192 BAA. However, he was battered for seven runs (five earned) and six hits while lasting only 2.2 innings of a 14-1 loss. Wacha escaped with a no-decision at the Chicago Cubs in his last start but was charged with five runs (four earned) over five innings. He had won his previous two starts, on the road at Washington and Milwaukee. Wacha is 7-3 with a 3.42 ERA in 16 career starts against the Pirates (Cards are 11-5). Here's the rub. The Cardinals won both earlier meetings this season against the Pirates, improving to 13-4 in the last 17 contests between the two NL Central rivals. Injuries limited Wacha to just 15 starts last year but he went 8-2. He's 2-0 this year in six starts. Let's NOT ignore that Wacha has suffered just TWO losses in his 21 starts since the beginning of 2018 (Cards are a solid 14-7 in all games). Meanwhile, Musgrove "came back to earth" in his last outing and I expect more outings like that, as the year progresses. His fabulous start to 2019 (remember, it was just FIVE games), was hardly in keeping with his performances heading into 2019. Musgrove opened the season 17-21 with a 4.33 ERA in 68 appearances, including 44 starts. Good luck...Larry |
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05-09-19 | Mariners v. Yankees -157 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
My 7* Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Yankees at 6:35 ET. The Seattle Mariners opened the season 13-2 but entered last night's game at Yankees Stadium having lost 17 of their previous 23 contests. However, Seattle ended a seven-game losing streak at Yankee Stadium (more on that later) with a 10-1 rout of New York. Third baseman Ryon Healy led the 14-hit attack for Seattle, joining Ken Griffey Jr. as the only players in franchise history with a HR and three doubles in a game. Edwin Encarnacion also homered (his fourth in five games), as the Mariners won for just the SECOND time in 10 games overall! The Yankees captured the first two games of the series (7-3 and 5-4) and despite Wednesday's loss, New York is 15-6 after a 6-9 start. Mike Leake (2-3, 4.91 ERA) gets the ball for Seattle and J.A. Happ (1-3, 4.93 ERA) for the Yankees. but he he is winless since April 6. He did manage to snap a three-start losing streak with six solid innings at Cleveland last time out, giving up three runs on seven hits over six innings of a no-decision. However, Seattle lost that game 5-4 and Leake takes the mound with Seattle having lost his last FOUR starting assignments. The inability to keep the ball in the park continues to plague Leake, who has surrendered 11 HRs over his last six outings. Right-handed batters are hitting a robust .373 against Leake, who is 0-2 with a 5.54 ERA in both career starts against the Yankees. Happ had a streak of three straight quality starts snapped in his last Start, losing 7-3 at home vs the Tins this past Saturday, allowing four runs and seven hits, over 5.2 innings. Happ had picked up his first win of 2019 in his previous start, blanking San Francisco on five hits over seven scoreless innings of a 6-4 win. Happ owns a 4-2 record and 5.06 ERA in seven starts versus Seattle (teams are 4-3). My play isn't so much on Happ, although I will note that we shouldn't count him out just yet in 2019, despite his poor start. After all, Happ is one of just NINE pitchers in MLB to earn at least 10 wins in each of the past five season. Meanwhile, Leake is pitching nowhere as well as he did last year, when Seattle went 20-11 in his starts (+$1,262). The Mariners do have a chance to earn a split of the four-game series with win tonight but note that the Yankees have not lost a season series to Seattle since 2003 (12-0-4). What's more, New York's home loss to Seattle on Wednesday still makes them 15-4 (79%) in their last 19 in the Bronx against the Mariners. Good luck...Larry |
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05-08-19 | Angels v. Tigers -120 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Det Tigers at 7:10 ET. The Los Angeles Angels bounced back from a pair of losses to Houston in Mexico with Tuesday's series-opening 5-2 win last night in Detroit. The Tigers were held to five hits by four Angels pitchers on Tuesday in losing for the SEVENTH time in their last 10 games to fall to 15-17. The Angels, in contrast, have won SEVEN of 10 to reach 16-19. Wednesday's pitching matchup is a battle of lefties, as LA's Tyler Skaggs (3-2, 3.12 ERA) takes on Detroit's Matthew Boyd (3-2, 3.05 ERA). Skaggs is a former first-round selection and enters this contest 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA and only seven hits allowed over 11 innings over his last two starts. Skaggs owns a 3.24 ETA in three career starts vs Detroit (he's 1-1 and the team 2-1). Boyd pitched seven innings while allowing just two runs in a 4-3 win over Kansas City on Friday, his SIXTH consecutive quality start. He struck out NINE for the second straight game and now has 57 strikeouts over 44.1 innings on the season, while holding opponents to a .205 average. A rash of injuries has made it difficult for Skaggs to capture the promise he displayed as a first-round pick of the Angels back in 2009. He missed the 2015 season recovering from Tommy John surgery and has been on the injured list FIVE times since the start of the 2017 season. In fact, his last two outings (see above), have come since he came back from an ankle ailment on April 26 (his latest trip to the DL). Meanwhile, Boyd ranks among the AL's top 10 in both strikeouts (fourth with 57) and WHIP (eighth at 0.99). It seems he has found the consistency that eluded him during a breakout 2018 season. Boyd allowed two runs or fewer in 17 of 31 starts in 2018 but still finished with a 4.39 ERA. The clincher" in this one comes is the fact that LA's 5-2 win last night came against Detroit lefty Norris. However, even with that win, the Angels check in at just 3-9 on the road vs lefties in 2019, averaging a pathetic 3.1 RPG. Boyd gets the "W!"
Good luck...Larry |
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05-08-19 | Rangers v. Pirates -119 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -119 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* Getaway Day Game of the Month is on the Pit Pirates at 12:35 ET. Pittsburgh swept a two-game series at Texas last week before hosting the Oakland Athletics over the weekend and taking two of three. The Pirates continued a stretch vs AL opponents last night, as the Rangers visited PNC Park. The Rangers came to Pittsburgh off back-to-back wins, in which they totaled 18 runs. Sunday's 10-2 triumph over Toronto got them back to .500 (16-16) for the season. The Pirates entered last night's contest 16-15 and both teams had Monday off. Gregory Polanco had a two-run HR and Melky Cabrera added a two-run double to pace Pittsburgh's attack Tuesday night, as the Pirates won 5-4. Pittsburgh has now followed up an eight-game losing streak against NL teams with a solid stretch entirely against the AL (more on that, later). The Rangers try to stay red hot in interleague play when they wrap up a two-game set with the visiting Rangers on Wednesday afternoon. Wednesday's pitching matchup features Shelby Miller (1-2, 7.99 ERA) going up against Nick Kingham (1-0, 6.39 ERA). Miller's 15-9 (3.06) 2013 season seems like a lifetime ago. Miller went 6-17 with Atlanta in 2015 and then 3-12 (6.15 ERA) with Arizona in 2016. The last two years, he made just nine appearances (eight starst) with Arizona. His "new start" with Texas in 2019 has NOT gone well. He's got just one win in six starts, with a 7.99 ERA, 2.03 WHIP and .295 BAA. Due to injuries to starters Chris Archer and Jameson Taillon, the Pirates will give Nick Kingham his first start of the year Wednesday. Kingham has made eight relief appearances in 2019, the last of which saw him give up four runs in just 2.1 innings in a blowout loss to Oakland on Friday. He was 5-7 with a 5.32 ERA in 15 starts as a rookie a year ago. The Pirates have little choice but to give Kingham another shot at starting with Taillon and Archer are on the injured list. That's why Steven Brault made his first start of the season Tuesday in the series opener. He gave up two runs and two hits in four innings and did not get a decision but the Pirates won 5-4. That's NOT news, as Pittsburgh is now 7-1 vs AL foes in 2019 and 22-6 (79%) against AL opponents since 2018. Need another reason to go against Texas? He is 2-8 with a 5.22 ERA in 11 career starts against the Pirates (3-8 or a 73% "go-against"), including a 1-4 record with a 6.92 ERA in five starts at PNC Park. Good luck...Larry |
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05-07-19 | Giants v. Rockies -115 | 14-4 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
My 9* Pitch Perfect Play is on the Col Rockies at 8:40 ET. The Colorado Rockies were on the verge of being swept by Arizona on Sunday but they erased a four-run deficit with five runs in the eighth inning for an 8-7 victory. The 16-19 Rockies continue their nine-game homestand tonight, as they welcome the 15-20 San Francisco Giants to Coors Field. San Francisco settled for a split of its four-game series in Cincinnati, falling 12-4 last night. Madison Bumgarner (1-4, 3.92 ERA) takes the mound for San Francisco and Antonio Senzatela (2-1, 4.03 ERA) for Colorado. Bumgarner allowed just one run on four hits with eight strikeouts in six innings lst Wednesday at home vs the Dodgers, as San Francisco's 2-1 victory was Bumgarner's first win of 2019 (he's made seven starts with the Giants going 2-5 so far this season). It was a nice bounce-back, as he had allowed nine ERs on 17 hits over 11.2 innings (6.94 ERA) in his previous two starts, losses to the New York Yankees (7-3) and at Pittsburgh (4-1). Bumgarner is 14-8 with a 3.03 ERA in 31 starts versus Colorado (Giants are 19-12), including 5-6 with a 4.32 ERA in 15 starts at Coors Field. Senzatela received his first no-decision of the season when he allowed two runs, four hits and three walks in four innings of Colorado's 11-4 victory at Milwaukee on Wednesday. Senzatela makes just his fifth start of 2019 in this one (Rockies are 3-1) and only his second home start. He clearly does not have the stature of Bumgarner but Senzatela has NEVER lost to the Giants. He's 5-0 with a 3.16 ERA against San Francisco in six career starts (teams are 6-0). That's my 100% Pitch Perfect stat but it's hardy the ONLY reason I'm playing on the Rockies. Coors Field represents a personal 'house of horrors' for the Giants, who have lost six straight games in Denver and are 2-17 since 2019, winning one game in each of the last two seasons. That's an 89% "go-against" and a pretty sweep 'daily double' of reasons to play the Rockies over the Giants. Good luck...Larry |