Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
02-21-19 | Heat v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 102-106 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Phi 76ers at 7:05 ET. Elton Brand was as solid NBA player but he's made quite a mark as Philly's GM here in the 2018-19 season. Brand made his second big move since the beginning of the year by adding PF Tobias Harris from the Clippers (at the trade deadline), after dealing for Jimmy Butler earlier in campaign. However, 37-21 Philadelphia would not have homecourt advantage in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs if the season ended at the All-Star break. The 76ers will try to continue to try to push their way up the standings when they return from the break by hosting the 26-30 Miami Heat on Thursday. The Heat are tied with the Detroit Pistons for the No. 8 spot in the East heading into the final stretch and are finishing off a six-game road trip that bridged the break. Miami opened its trip with a 118-108 win at Portland (Feb 5) but then dropped THREE in a row. However, the Heat closed out the Western Conference portion of their trip with a 112-101 victory at Dallas on Feb 13. After finishing up with Philadelphia, Miami will play 10 of its next 12 at home, including two games against the Pistons. Miami began to surge after former All-Star PG Goran Dragic went down and the team inserted SF Justise Winslow into the starting lineup and let him take over playmaking duties. Dragic (15.3 & 4.9 APG) is on the verge of returning from arthroscopic knee surgery. Is that good or bad news? Winslow (12.4-5.5-4.1) has been playing at the point with Wade (14.0-3.8-4.3) coming off the bench. SG Richardson (17.6) leads the team in scoring and center Hassan is a double-double 'machine,' averaging 12.8 & 12.4. Miami's D has been good all season, allowing 105.7 PPG on 44.3% shooting (both rank 3rd-best in the NBA). Philadelphia is third in the league in scoring (115.9 PPG) but 20th in points allowed (112.2). The 76ers recognize that they need to get better on that end of the floor to compete for the East title. "We know that offensively we are a top-power team," Tobias Harris told reporters. "We also know that if we become a top-power defensive team that's going to make us really tough to play against so that's how we've got to look at it." Harris has been an excellent addition, averaging 17.8 points on 51.9 percent shooting in four games since joining the team from the Los Angeles Clippers. Center Embiid (27.3 & 13.5) is an established All-Star plus the trio of Butler (18.8-5.0-3.8), Redick (18.6) and Simmons(16.8-9.0-7.9) give Philly quite the starting-five. Miami has been inconsistent all season, with only one win streak longer than two games. The Heat now look to complete this six-game road trip with a visit to Philly, a trip which began way back on Feb 5 (odd, to say the least). As for Philly, the 76ers have to be VERY anxious to get back on the court and get rid of the 'bad taste' left by their Feb 12 home loss to the Celtics (0-3 vs Boston this year!). Miami doesn't score much (ranks 27th at 105.1 PPG) and Philly averages a whopping 119.1 PPG at home. Lay the points! Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
02-13-19 | Heat v. Mavs -2.5 | Top | 112-101 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Week is on the Dal Mavs at 8:35 ET. The Miami Heat have performed well away from home for much of the season. However, the Heat will conclude a five-game road trip prior to the All Star break with tonight's game in Dallas. Wins have been tough to come by on their current trip, against some of the best the Western Conference has to offer. Miami opened the trip with a 118-108 win at Portland (Feb 5) but has since dropped THREE in a row. One night after a valiant effort in a two-point loss at Golden State, Miami dropped a 103-87 decision at Denver on Monday, tumbling out of the top eight in the East with a 25-30 record. As for the 26-30 Mavericks, they traded four starters in an eight-day span. Second-leading scorer Harrison Barnes (17.7 & 4.2) was the last to go, when Dallas shipped him to the Sacramento Kings for fellow forwards Justin Jackson and Zach Randolph. Prior to that, the Mavs traded PG Dennis Smith Jr. (12.9 & 4.3 APG), SG Wesley Matthews (13.1) and center DeAndre Jordan (11.0 & 13.7) to the New York Knicks. That left star rookie Luka Doncic as the lone remaining starter.The Mavs had won SIX of nine but their last time out, lost 120-104 to James Harden ("just" 31 points!) and the Houston Rockets on Monday. Center Hassan Whiteside entered Denver averaging 17.8 points and 14.6 rebounds during a streak of five straight double-doubles but he was held to six and eight, respectively, against the Nuggets' big men. The 29-year-old Whiteside (12.9 & 12.5) averages 14.1 points, 13.9 rebounds and 2.5 blocks at home, where Miami plays 10 of 12 games soon after the All-Star break. With PG Dragic and his 15.3 PPG and 4.9 APG sidelined, Winslow (12.4-5.3-4.1) has been playing at the point with Wade (13.8-3.8-4.4) coming off the bench. SG Richardson (17.6) leads the team in scoring. Miami's D has been good all season, allowing 105.7 PPG on 44.4% shooting (both rank 3rd-best in the NBA). Rookie Luka Doncic (20.8-7.1-5.5) had 21 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists for Dallas in the road loss at Houston. Doncic is likely looking forward to the break, after playing all 12 minutes of the fourth quarter in Sunday's win over Portland and then carrying Dallas through 36 minutes in the loss to Houston. I expect that both Hardway (14.5 PPG in his four games with Dallas) and Burke (8.5 in the same span), will get plenty of "PT" here in Dallas. Also, expect forwards Powell (8.7 & 4.4) and Finney-Smith (7.9 & 4.7) to see increased minutes and offer increased production after the trades. In fact, Powell is shooting 62.3 percent from the floor over his last 10-games. Miami opened this trip with an upset of Portland and sat 14-11 SU (16-9 ATS) on the road at that time. However, the Heat are 0-3 over the previous seven days. This is the final contest of a five-game, nine-day road trip and Dallas is 20-8 SU (19-8-1 ATS) at American Airlines Center this season. Doncic will surely be looking forward to a rest with the All Star break coming (that said, he has to be a little miffed he's not playing in it) but 19-year-old isn't showing any signs of slowing down on the stat sheet. He's averaging 24.6 points, 8.6 rebounds and 6.6 assists in five games in Feb. Mavs roll. Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
02-12-19 | Celtics v. 76ers -5.5 | Top | 112-109 | Loss | -124 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Phi 76ers at 8:05 ET. Elton Brand was as solid NBA player but he's made quite a mark as Philly's GM here in the 2018-19 season. Brand made his second big move since the beginning of the year by adding PF Tobias Harris from the Clippers, after dealing for Jimmy Butler earlier in campaign. Both moves were made to ostensibly to get Philly over the hump vs.new/old nemesis Boston. The Philadelphia 76ers are sure playing like a team that is headed in the right direction, as they are coming off impressive wins over the Denver Nuggets (117-110) and Los Angeles Lakers (143-120) since making a series of deadline moves. The Boston Celtics failed to make any upgrades prior to the deadline and are looking like a team that could have used a shake-up. The Celtics lost 129-128 on a buzzer-beater to the Los Angeles Lakers at home on Thursday and then blew a 28-point lead before falling to the Los Angeles Clippers 123-112 on Saturday in a demoralizing defeat. Boston's Saturday's collapse began late in the first half, after All-Star guard Kyrie Irving suffered a sprained knee that will leave him on the sidelines Tuesday and potentially Wednesday against Detroit at home. Gordon Hayward (10.2 & 4.6) had a team-high 19 points off the bench but Irving's fellow starters combined to shooting 14-for-42 (33.3%) from the floor without their leader. Hayward comes off the bench along with Brown (12.7 & 4.3), while Tatum (16.4 & 6.3) and Morris (14.6 & 6.) typically start up front with Horford (12.4 & 6.6). With Irving sidelined, expect Rozier (9.1) and Smart (8.2) to start in the backcourt. Joel Embiid (27.4 & 13.5) went off for 37 points and 14 rebounds in Sunday's 143-120 rout of the Lakers, as 36-20 Philadelphia moved one game ahead of Boston (35-21) for fourth place in the Eastern Conference. Embiid was 12-for-16 from the floor in Sunday's win, while newly acquired forward Tobias Harris had 22 points on 9-of-14 in his second game with the team. Harris was averaging career highs of 20.9 & 7.9 with LA and has averaged 18.0 & 7.0 in his two games with the Sixers. Rounding out Philly's starting-five is Butler (18.9 & 4.9), Redick (18.7) and PG/swingman Ben Simmons (16.7-9.2-7.9). Philly's starting-five may not quite measure up to Golden State's (which team's does?) but it's clearly the East's top unit. I'm not sure Boston can 'hang' with Philly here, without Irving's 23.6 PPG and 6.9 APG. The 76ers are 23-6 at home, averaging a whopping 119.4 PPG. Sans Kyrie, Boston gets rolled, as Philly avenges the Celtics' two home wins (105-87 & 121-114 in OT) over the 76ers earlier this year. Lay it! Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
02-11-19 | Heat v. Nuggets -10.5 | Top | 87-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
My 3rd play of Monday's STP is an 8* on the Den Nuggets at 9:05 ET. The Denver Nuggets 'limp' home after losing the final three games of their four-game road trip. 37-18 Denver will be looking to avoid matching a season-high four-game losing streak Monday night, when the Nuggets welcome the 25-29 Miami Heat to Pepsi Center. The Nuggets allowed an average of 132 points in two straight losses, before giving Philadelphia all it could handle in a 117-110 loss on Friday. Denver now begins a stretch in which the Nuggets play six of seven at home, where they are an NBA-best 23-4. Miami visits the Mile High City after rallying from nine down in the fourth quarter to take a three-point lead with less than a minute to go, surrender the final five of the game in a 120-118 loss at Golden St (the Warriors own a 40-15 record, best in the West). Josh Richardson (Miami's leading scorer at 17.8 PPG) poured in 37 points but the Heat lost for the fifth time in six games, dropping into a tie with Detroit for eighth place in the Eastern Conference. Richardson is averaging 25.3 points over the last three contests and backcourt mate Dion Waiters (9.2) stepped up to score a season-high 24 on Sunday. Center Hassan Whiteside recorded his fifth straight double-double Sunday and is averaging 17.8 points along with 14.2 rebounds during that stretch (he's averaging 13.1 & 12.6 on the season). Veteran Dwyane Wade (13.9-3.9-4.4) scored 10 points and has averaged 17.0 PPG over his last four contests. Small forward Justise Winslow had 22 points on 8-of-16 shooting against Golden State but has mostly been playing in the backcourt with PG Dragic (15.3 & 4.9 APG) sidelined. Winslow is averaging 12.3-5.4-4.2 on the season. Denver head coach Michael Malone told reporters his players could hold their heads high after Friday’s effort but guard Will Barton (12.3-4.4-3.4) said it is time to get back to business as the Nuggets’ lead over Oklahoma City for second in the West has shrunk to one game. Center Nikola Jokic continues to put up big numbers, recording triple-doubles in five of the last eight games. He leads Denver in scoring (20.4), rebounding (10.5) and assists (7.7). PG Jamal Murray (18.6-4.3-5.0) has averaged 21 points and 8.5 assists in two contests since returning from a six-game absence because of an ankle injury, while fellow guard Malik Beasley (11.6) is averaging 20.7 points over his past six outings. However, SG Gary Harris (14.8) is expected to miss his sixth straight game, while PF Paul Millsap (12.0 & 6.5) could sit out a fourth straight with an ankle injury. Injuries are nothing new to Denver this season, yet as noted earlier, the Nuggets own the NBA's best home record (23-4 SU), averaging 116.5 PPG and winning by an average of 12 points per game. Miami has been a solid road underdog the last two seasons but the Heat are coming off a heart-breaking loss last night in Oakland and will be playing their third game in four days on the road. That's is NOT a recipe for success. Lay the points! Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
02-10-19 | Magic v. Hawks +2.5 | Top | 124-108 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Atl Hawks at 7:35 ET. The Orlando Magic opened their three-game road trip in impressive fashion on Saturday, continuing a sudden surge back into the Eastern Conference playoff race. The Magic took advantage of the absence of Milwaukee superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) to coast past the Bucks 103-83 on Saturday, improving to 4-1 on the heels of a 3-11 swoon. Orlando sits at 24-32, " 2 1/2-games out of teh East's final playoff spot. Atlanta's league-worst defense (more later) was on full display in Saturday's loss, as Charlotte shot 54.5 percent and recorded 30 assists on 48 baskets in a 129-120 loss. The Hawks are 18-37 and are hardly thinking postseason as the All Star break looms. Rookie Isaiah Briscoe hit all three of his shot attempts in Thursday's win over Minnesota and was 4-for-5 from the floor while handing out seven assists in the rout of the Bucks. "By far, his best game. Both ways, and he hit his jumper," head coach Steve Clifford said of the 22-year-old guard. Orlando's 7-0 All-Star center, Nikola Vucevic, added 15 points and 17 rebounds. Vucevic (20.5 & 12.0) and 6-9 PF Gordon (15.9 & 7.4) are Orlando's top-two producers, although Clifford has a solid three-guard rotation. That group includes Fournier (14.8), Ross (14.7) and PG Augustin (11.5 & 4.7 APG). The Hawks have opened a seven-game homestand by dropping the first two contests. They allowed 46 first-quarter points to Charlotte and fell short with a late rally in Saturday's nine-point loss. The 6-10 John Collins led the way offensively with 21 points on 8-of-12 shooting. That's not exactly new, as the second-year 6-10 forward averages team highs of 19.4 PPG and 9.9 RPG. Rookie PG Trae young checks in at 16.9 PPG and 7.5 APG plus FIVE more players average in double digits (two more check in at 8.3 & 9.4). Scoring is NOT Atlanta's problem. It's a defense that allows 118.4 PPG (30 of 30 teams) on 47.7% shooting (28th). However, with Orlando coming off a win at Milwaukee, a team with the NBA's best record, the Magic are in a perfect spot for a letdown. Note that Orlando looks to win its third straight overall contest, for the FIRST time since mid-November. NOT! Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
02-09-19 | Thunder v. Rockets -1.5 | Top | 117-112 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Hou Rockets at 8:35 ET. The Oklahoma City Thunder (35-19) visit the Houston Rockets (32-22) on Saturday night, with the ABC cameras on hand. James Harden extended his streak of 30-point games to 28 with 36 points in a 127-101 victory at Sacramento on Wednesday, pulling within three games of tying Chamberlain for the second-longest streak in NBA history at 31 (note: Wilt's record 65-game streak is likely NOT in danger!). Coming to town with OKC is Russell Westbrook and he brings along a streak of eight consecutive triple-doubles, after going for 15-13-15 in Thursday's 117-95 win over the Memphis Grizzlies. That moved him past Michael Jordan and within one of tying the mark of nine straight set by Chamberlain in 1968 (that Wilt guy keeps popping up). The Thunder currently occupy the No. 3 seed in the West, three games ahead of the 5th-seed Rockets (Portland sandwiched in between, one up on Houston and two back of OKC). Westbrook (21.2-11.1-11.2) is averaging a triple-double for the third straight season and leads the NBA in assists, nearly two more than the next-closest player (Toronto's Kyle Lowry is at 9.3). However, Paul George is OKC's top scorer, averaging 28.0 PPG. Backup PG Schroder averages 15.7 & 4.2 APG, starting center Adams 15.2 & 9.7) and PF Grant 13.2 & 5.0. No other OKC player averages as much as 7.0 PPG. The Rockets were active at the trade deadline, acquiring guard Iman Shumpert from the Sacramento Kings while jettisoning James Ennis III (to the Philadelphia 76ers), Marquese Chriss and Brandon Knight (both to the Cleveland Cavaliers) to free roster spots in order to aggressively pursue additions via what should be a robust buyout market. Those moves completed the exodus of the five players the Rockets adding during the past offseason, with Carmelo Anthony and Michael Carter-Williams traded earlier this season. The constant has been Harden, averaging 36.5-6.8-7.9. PG Chris Paul (15.5 & 7.9 APG) is back but center Clint Capela (17.6 & 12.6) is still out. However, he is expected to return after the All-Star break. Can't imagine Harden NOT be primed for this showdown with Westbrook and he's carried Houston since Paul first went out (now back) plus kept it going through Capela's absence, as well. A HUGE bonus has been getting Kenneth Faried (from Boston), as the 6-8 vet has averaged 16.1 & 10.2 in nine games. Houston is 15-3 SU at home since Dec 1 and that has me "all over" the Rockets in this one. Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
02-08-19 | Heat v. Kings -2.5 | Top | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Sac Kings at 10:05 ET. The Sacramento Kings won just 27 games ALL of last season and last produced a winning record back in the 2005-06 season. However, the 28-26 Kings proved that they have EVERY intention of ending their 12-year playoff drought with the acquisition of Harrison Barnes. The Kings acquired the 6-8 forward from the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday night in exchange for forwards Justin Jackson and Zach Randolph (no big loss, there). Sacramento welcomes the Miami Heat to town tonight, having gone 3-1 on what will be a six-game homestand (note: Kings were routed 127-101 by the Houston Rockets on Wednesday). The 25-27 Heat also made some moves. acquiring forward Ryan Anderson from the Phoenix Suns for guards Tyler Johnson and Wayne Ellington. The Heat opened their six-game road trip with an impressive 118-108 win over the Portland Trail Blazers on Tuesday. Center Hassan Whiteside led Miami with 28 points and 11 rebounds, as he's headed to yet another double-double season (13.0 & 12.4). By moving Johnson (10.8) and Ellington (8.4) the Heat have unclogged their guard rotation, which still includes starters Josh Richardson (17.3) and Justise Winslow (backups 12.3 & 5.7) plus reserves Dwyane Wade (14.0), Rodney McGruder (8.7) and even Dion Waiters (7.9 PPG but just 14 games played). Goran Dragic (15.3 & 4.9 APG), an All-Star point guard in 2017, is on injured reserve (return up in the air). Buddy Hield, the key player in the Boogie Cousins trade, leads Sacramento in averaging 20.4 PPG, while shooting a white-hot 45.5% on threes. Second-year PG Fox (17.3 & 7.2 APG) is looking like a future All-Star as well. Also, Bogdanovich (14.8) and center Cauley-Stein (12.9 & 8.6) have become regular contributors.Not to be forgotten is rookie forward Marvin Bagley III (13.1 & 7.0), who has recorded four straight double-doubles, as the No. 2 overall selection from Duke, is averaging 16.3 points and 11.8 rebounds over the past four games, while scoring in double digits in seven straight outings (also 12 of his last 13 since returning from an injury). The addition of Barnes (17.7 & 4.2 TY with Dallas) will be huge, as he had also averaged 18.9 & 6.1 and 19.2 & 5.0 his first two full seasons with the Mavs. I am aware that the Heat are dangerous as road underdogs (52-25-2 ATS in that role the L3 seasons) but the Kings are 19-9 ATS at home this season. What's more, the Kings are on an 8-1 ATS run at home (7-1 SU in the last eight) and have covered 10 of their last 12 when installed as a favorite at Golden 1 Center going back to last season. The Kings have won the last three meetings with the Heat, including a 123-113 win in Miami back on Oct 29.make that FOUR in a row and a covers as well. Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
02-06-19 | Rockets v. Kings +3 | Top | 127-101 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
James Harden takes the court tonight in Sacramento, looking to record his 28th straight game of 30 or more points. The 31-22 Houston Rockets visit the 28-25 Sacramento Kings on Wednesday and have won 15 of their last 17 meetings against the Kings. However, this is not "your father's" Kings. The upstart Kings extended their home-court winning streak to SEVEN in a row on Monday, with a 127-112 victory over the San Antonio Spurs. A 28-25 mark may see ho-hum to some but Sacramento won just 27 games ALL of last season and last produced a winning record back in the 2005-06 season. on Monday (current 12-year playoff drought), a triumph that left Sacramento on Harden poured in 44 points in Monday's 118-110 road win over the Phoenix Kings, registering his 20th, 40-point outing of the season. Harden has now scored 40 or more points in 15 of the last 21 games. "They held him to 44. That's pretty good," Housto head n coach Mike D'Antoni told reporters afterward. "He's seen everything, he's going to score." Power forward Kenneth Faried filled in at center with Capela out and had 17 points and matched his season best of 14 rebounds to post his fifth double-double in the past six games. However, he's played in just 20 games this season, averaging 9.7 & 6.3. The injury-ravaged Rockets have just four games remaining until the All-Star break offers some much-needed rest (more later). Sacramento is now 3-0 on a six-game homestand, after Monday's 127-112 victory over the Spurs. Rookie forward Marvin Bagley III (13.2 & 6.9) has recorded three straight double-doubles and had a season-high 24 points, to go along with 12 rebounds during the victory over the Kings. The No. 2 overall selection from Duke, is averaging 18.3 points and 12.3 rebounds over the past three games and scored in double digits in six straight outings. Buddy Hield, the key player in the Boogie Cousins trade, leads Sacramento in averaging 20.4 PPG, while shooting a white-hot 45.9% on threes. Second-year PG Fox (17.5 & 7.2 APG) is looking like a future All-Star as well. Also, Bogdanovich (14.9) and center Cauley-Stein (13.1 & 8.6) have become regular contributors. Here's the rub. The Rockets won in Phoenix on Monday without center Clint Capela (right thumb) and guard Eric Gordon (right leg), utilizing their 16th different starting lineup in the process. They have thrived on occasion despite the injuries, but far more often they have persevered, with forward P.J. Tucker the only member of the roster to have participated in all 53 contests. PG Chris Paul has missed 23 games this season, while Gordon has missed 12 and Capela 11. James Ennis III made his 25th start in the Rockets' 118-110 victory, but he's been absent 14 games. Have to LOVE the way Sacramento is playing and the team's stretch of home wins is the longest since the Kings won 14 straight during the 2005-06 campaign (last playoff appearance!). Sacramento is 17-10 SU and 19-8 ATS at the Golden 1 Center and comes in having won and covered SEVEN straight at home. No reason NOT to take them here as a home dog, considering the fact that Houston is 5-11 ATS as a road favorite this season. Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
02-05-19 | Clippers v. Hornets -3.5 | Top | 117-115 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Week is on the Cha Hornets at 7:05 ET. The LA Clippers are 29-25, a record which gives them the West's No. 8 seed. LA is just 2 1/2 games out of the No. 5 seed but also just three games ahead of the No. 11 seed. The Clippers continue their six-game road trip with a visit to Charlotte on Tuesday. The Hornets are 26-26, leaving them with the East's No. 7 seed, three games up on the 9th-seeded Pistons. Charlotte has knocked off Memphis and Chicago in the first two of a three-game homestand. The Clippers got off to a fine start on their six-game road trip with a win at Detroit on Saturday but could not handle Toronto on Sunday on the second of a back-to-back, dropping a 121-103 decision. Visits to Indiana, Boston and Minnesota will round out the trip, as LA clings to the No. 8 spot in the West. PF Harris continues to lead the team in scoring (20.7) and rebounding (7.9), while Lou Williams (19.2 & 5.7 APG) continues to play as well as any sixth-man in the league. SF Gallinari (19.0 & 6.0) and backup PF Harrell (15.6 & 6.7) are both major contributors, as well. All-Star PG Kemba Walker (24.6-4.2-5.6) continues to carry the team and scored 15 of his 37 points in the fourth quarter on Saturday against Chicago, while adding 10 assists. NINE more players get regularly minutes for Charlotte, averaging between 6.6 and 14.8 PPG. 6-5 SG Lamb is the team's second-best scorer and also leads the team in rebounding (5.6). Finding secondary scoring is the always a big challenge for Charlotte but second-year guard Malik Monk (10.4) is stepping up as of late. He scored 18 points against the Bulls, his fourth straight game scoring in double figures. The Hornets are catching the Clippers at the right time, as LA limps into Charlotte 5-9 SU & ATS over the team's last 14 games. Meanwhile, Charlotte is 19-8 SU at home (compared to 7-18 on the road), having won FIVE straight at Spectrum Center (4-1 ATS), as well as NINE of 10 since mid-December. No real pointspread to cover here, so go with the Hornets. Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
02-04-19 | Hawks v. Wizards -6 | Top | 137-129 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
The 17-35 Atlanta Hawks sit 7 1/2 games out of the East's final playoff spot as they head into the finale of a seven-game road trip Monday night at the 22-30 Washington Wizards. The Hawks are 3-3 on the trip so far, after Saturday’s 118-112 victory at Phoenix. The Wizards continue to adjust to life without PG John Wall (20.7 & 8.7 APG), as they come off losing 131-115 at home to Milwaukee on Saturday, their fourth defeat in the past six games. However, Washington sits a more modest 2 1/2 games out of the East's No. 8 seed. Atlanta’s draft-night trade sent Luka Doncic to Dallas for Trae Young. Doncic is likely headed for ROY honors but Young's 'star' is 'shining brightly' these days as well. He has scored 20 or more points with eight-plus assists in each of his last four games, scoring 27 points with eight assists and seven rebounds in Saturday's win over the Suns. He's second on the team in scoring (16.9) and leads Atlanta by handing out 7.4 APG. Atlanta's top scorer and rebounder is second-year player John Collins. The 6-10 big man out of Wake Forest averages 19.7 & 9.9. Collins matched his career high with 35 points Saturday and added 16 rebounds (one off his career best). The Hawks have plenty of depth, as seven players average in double digits but the team struggles because it allows 118.0 PPG (30th of 30 teams). Guard Bradley Beal (24.7-5.0-5.1) scored 24 points in the loss to Milwaukee but he continues to raise his game in Wall’s absence, averaging 27.3 points and shooting 37.5 percent from three-point range in the 17 games since Wall was shut down with a season-ending ankle injury. PG Tomas Satoransky made 41 starts when Wall was injured last season and is averaging 10.4 points and 5.8 assists in 30 starts this season. Trevor Ariza was acquired from Phoenix and the SF has played very well in 22 games, averaging 14.8-5.8-4.1. Otto Porter Jr. (12.6 & 5.6) returned to the starting lineup after coming off the bench for most of January, and despite a sprained toe finished with 18 points and seven rebounds Saturday. The Hawks have been on an extended road trip because of the Super Bowl being played in Atlanta and will return home after Monday's game. I have to like the Wizards in this one, as the Hawks are just 9-22 SU on the road, allowing a whopping 118.2 PPG. Meanwhile, the Wizards are 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS at home their last 10. Lay it. Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
02-02-19 | 76ers v. Kings +3.5 | Top | 108-115 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Sac Kings at 10:05 ET. The Philadelphia 76ers are 34-18 (currently own the East's third-best record, four game back of the Bucks) and will try to avoid a letdown after what has to be the team's best win of the season. The 76ers put up a 42-point third quarter en route to a 113-104 win at Golden State on Thursday, snapping the defending champs' 11-game winning streak. Philly now wraps up a four-game road trip at the Sacramento Kings, who are 26-25. That may not seem like much but Sacramento won just 27 games ALL of last season and last produced a winning record back in the 2005-06 season. "It's a fantastic win. This group -- myself included -- we have not beaten Golden State," head coach Brett Brown told reporters. "To do it on the road, to do it in front of their fans against a team that is this good and had won that many in a row, it is a good night." Joel Embiid had 26 points and 20 rebounds in the victory as Philadelphia improved to 14-5 against the Western Conference, the top mark in the East. Embiid (27.2 & 13.4) gets better each game and is supported by Butler (18.6-3.2-5.0 in his 30 games with Philly), Redick (18.3) and Simmons (16.8-9.5-8.1). Philly averages 115.6 PPG (4th-best) but allows 111.9 PPG (21st), including 114.8 PPG on the road where the 76ers are a modest 13-13. The Kings returned from a 2-4 road trip and routed the Atlanta Hawks 135-113 on Wednesday night. Harry Giles (just 6.0 PPG on the season) recorded a season-high 20 points for Sacramento in what was the opener of a six-game homestand. Rookie Marvin Bagley III backed Giles' big effort with 17 points and 12 rebounds of his own against Atlanta as the young Duke products provided a potential glimpse of the future for Sacramento. He's back healthy and is averaging 12.9 & 6.6 RPG. Buddy Hield, the key player in the Boogie Cousins trade, leads Sacramento in averaging 20.2 PPG, while shooting a white-hot 45.8% on threes. Second-year PG Fox (17.4 & 7.2 APG) is looking like a futre All-Star as well. Also, Bogdanovich (15.3) and center Cauley-Stein (13.1 & 8.7) have become regular contributors. Head coach Dave Joerger has an "under the radar" good team in Sacramento. Aren't the Sixers in an obvious "let-down" situation here? It shouldn't go unnoticed that Philly is just 12-20 ATS coming off a SU win this season and beating Golden St in Oakland is no ordinary win! Meanwhile, Sacramento is 15-10 SU and 17-8 ATS at the Golden 1 Center and comes in having won and covered five straight at home. The Kings have also won FOUR of their last five over Philly, including a 2-0 SU & ATS sweep last season. Home dog barks LOUDLY in this one. Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
02-01-19 | Rockets v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 122-136 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
My NBA 10* Game of the Week is on the Den Nuggets at 10:05 ET. Houston's James Harden continued his scoring spree with 37 points on Tuesday, his 24th straight game of 30 or more points. "It's a terrible loss for us. Terrible," Harden told reporters afterward. "A letdown. We had no energy from the beginning of the game." The 29-21 Rockets (currently the West's No. 6 seed) will head to Denver for tonight's game with the Nuggets. Denver beat the 105-99 Pelicans in New Orleans, a day after the Pelicans won in Houston. It was Denver's FOURTH straight victory and 14th in the past 18 contests, giving the Nuggets a 35-15 record (a half-game behind the Warriors' for the West's best record). The good news for Houston is that not only have the Rockets already posted two double-digit victories over Denver earlier this season but Houston opens a four-game road trip looking to defeat Denver for the 10th consecutive time.Harden (36.3-6.7-8.10 is having another MVP-like season and PG Chris Paul (15.3 & 8.0 APG) has returned from a 17-game absence. However, center Clint Capela, averaging career highs in scoring (17.6) and rebounding (12.6), remains sidelined until late-Feb with a thumb injury. Denver center Nikola Jokic had 20 points, 13 rebounds and 10 assists for his eighth triple-double of the season in the Nuggets' win at New Orleans. He leads the team in scoring (20.1), rebounding (10.4) and in assists (7.7), on the season. PG Jamal Murray (18.5) will likely miss his fourth straight game (ankle) and that will give backup Monte Morris (10.2 & 3.7 APG) a chance to follow up on Wednesday's strong effort of 20 points, seven assists and six rebounds. Most importantly, Morris didn't commit a single turnover in 40 minutes in his second career start and has just four miscues in 118 minutes over the past four games. Denver has fought through key injuries all season but SG Harris (14.8 & 5.6), swingman Barton (12.9 & 4.5) and PF Paul Millsap (12.3 & 6.7) are all back playing regularly. Yes, Houston has won NINE straight over Denver and who can deny what Harden as done lately. Harden just concluded one of the top months in NBA history by averaging 43.6 points, 8.7 rebounds, 7.6 assists and 2.1 steals in 14 games. He has scored at least 35 points in each of his past 11 games, including efforts of 61, 58 and 57 and has made at least five 3-pointers on 11 occasions. Harden scored 610 points in the month to become the first player since Michael Jordan - 729 in March of 1987 - to reach 600 in a month. However, Houston will be without Clint Capela this time around (27.5 PPG vs the Nuggets this season) and PG Chris Paul's return has resulted in an 0-2 ATS start. Houston is just 8-15 ATS on the road this season, while the Nuggets are 22-4 SU & 18-8 ATS at Pepsi Center this season, outscoring opponents 115.3-to-103.8 PPG. Lay it! Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
01-31-19 | Mavs v. Pistons -2 | Top | 89-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Det Pistons at 7:05 ET. Rookie sensation Luka Doncic led the Mavericks past the Pistons 106-101 last Friday in Dallas. The two teams meet again tonight in frosty Detroit, as Doncic will look to repeat his 32-8-8 performance. The 19-year-old rookie is the first teenager in NBA history with multiple triple-doubles in a season after posting two in the past five games. The 23-27 Mavs lost fouhe second game of a four-game homestand, having dropped four of their last five contests to fall to 21-28. Second-year PG Dennis Smith Jr. (12.7) returned to the Mavericks after an unhappy sabbatical on Jan 22 and his return coincides with the Mavs' 3-1 run. Smith missed six straight games due to friction over his role but shared the ball-handling duties with star rookie Luka Doncic. Smith scored 13 points, recorded a career-high 15 assists and matched his career best of 10 rebounds against the Knicks for his second career triple-double. He's scored in double digits in each game, averaging 15.5-6.0-7.5. "Smith had a big impact game," Head coach Rick Carlisle told reporters, later adding this remark about Smith posting a triple-double one game after Doncic: "It means that they can play together if you ask me." Doncic is averaging 20.4-6.9-5.4 on the season. With Detroit's season being mired in mediocrity, there is plenty of speculation that the 29-year-old Blake Griffin could be on the move prior to the Feb. 7 deadline. Griffin scored 18 points in Tuesday's 115-105 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks, after scoring 30 or more points in eight of his previous 11 appearances. He checks in at 26.3-8.1-5.3 on the season and has NOT asked for a trade. Center Drummond (16.5 & 14.8) is having a solid season but Detroit's backcourt has been shaky at best. PG Jackson (14.3 & 4.2 APG) has been inconsistent and currently Bullock (12.0) and Smith (8.7) are dealing with ankle and groin issues, respectively. There is little doubt that Dallas is a team on the rise, as the team's 23 wins (through 50 games) is just one shy of the team's entire win-total from last season (24). However, Dallas checks in just 5-20 SU on the road this season and off a game last night (a road win to boot), I will not take them in this spot against the avenging Piston with "no margin for error" (will likely need to win to cover!). Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
01-30-19 | Jazz v. Blazers -1 | Top | 105-132 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Por Blazers at 10:354 ET. The Utah Jazz visit Moda Center in Portland on Wednesday having won NINE of 10 and 11 of their last 13. Utah is making its way up the Western Conference standings at 29-22 (currently own the No. 7 seed) but one of the teams still in front of them in the West are the Portland Trail Blazers, who are 31-20 (currently own the No. 4 seed, the last with homecourt advantage in the first round). The Trail Blazers enter on a nice roll as well, having gone 5-1 SU & ATS since back-to-back loses at Denver (Jan 13) and Sacramento (Jan 14). PG Ricky Rubio is back in the lineup (missed six games from Jan 9-18 with a hamstring issue) and the Jazz are thriving behind the play of their starting backcourt. Donovan Mitchell is averaging 22.5-3.8-4.0 and Rubio 12.8 & 6.0 APG. The duo combined for 47 points and 13 assists in a 125-111 win at Minnesota on Sunday. "We were playing the right way," Jazz coach Quin Snyder told reporters. "Our shots were better because of our guards. When we attack the rim, everything else opens up and we get easier shots and shoot better." Mitchell has scored at least 24 points in each of the last 12 games (he is averaging 28.1 points on 45.1 percent shooting in January). All five Utah starters average in double figures, as joining Mitchell and Rubio are center Gobert (15.0 & 12.9), swingman Ingles (11.6-3.8-4.9), PF Favors (11.0 & 7.2). Coming off the bench are SF Crowder (12.1 & 4.7) and SG Korver (10.1 PPG on 41.2% from three in his 29 games with the Jazz). Utah is one of the NBA's best defensive teams, allowing 105.1 PPG (3rd-best). Portland has its own dynamic backcourt duo with Damian Lillard (26.2-4.5-6.2) and CJ McCollum (20.8), who recorded his first career triple-double (28-10-10) in a 120-111 win over the Atlanta Hawks on Saturday (Lillard sat that one out but will play here). Note that Seth Curry (6.3) started in place of Lillard on Saturday and scored a season-high 22 points. Center Nurkic (15.2 & 10.4) is vastly underrated, as is PF Aminu, who adds 9.6 & 8.2. Portland's home record is now 21-7 on the season and the Blazers take the Moda Center court tonight on a seven-game home winning streak (6-1 ATS). Portland owns all the tools to cool off the red-hot Jazz, who are after all, a modest 14-12 SU on the road (Utah will need to win to cover here). Portland wins "with room to spare." Good luck... Larry |
|||||||
01-27-19 | Jazz v. Wolves +4 | Top | 125-111 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Min T-wolves at 7:05 ET. The Utah Jazz finished a successful homestand with a 106-102 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday. Utah heads out on the road after having played EIGHT of its last nine in Salt Lake City, with the Jazz going 7-1 in those eight home contests. Utah opens a game quick two-stop road trip on Sunday, by completing a home-and-home set with the Timberwolves in Minneapolis. The T-wolves played without injured PGs Jeff Teague (11.5 & 8.1 APG) and Derrick Rose (18.6 & 4.7 APG) Friday in Utah but Minnesota rallied from a 21-point deficit at the start of the fourth quarter and drew within a point in the final minute. The Timberwolves actually had a chance to take the lead but Jerryd Bayless and Luol Deng each missed a go-ahead three-pointer in the waning seconds. Utah's Donovan Mitchell (22.2-3.8-3.9) had 24 points in Friday's win plus added a career-high 11 assists. The second-year player has scored at least 24 points in 11 consecutive contests. All five Utah starters average in double figures, as joining Mitchell are PG Rubio (12.7 & 6.01 AGP), swingman Ingles (11.5-3.9-4.9), PF Favors (11.0 & 71.) and center Gobert (15.0 & 13.1) Coming off the bench are SF Crowder (12.0 & 4.7) and SG Korver (10.0 PPG on 40.6% from three in his 28 games with the Jazz). Utah is one of the NBA's best defensive teams, allowing 105.0 PPG (3rd-best). Minnesota saw three guards - Derrick Rose, Jeff Teague and Tyus Jones - each miss Friday's loss due to foot or ankle injuries. Injuries to those players have revealed that this is a team that won't go down without a fight. Minnesota leaned heavily on center Karl-Anthony Towns (as usual), who scored 33 points on 12-of-19 shooting. He averages 22.8 & 12.3 on the season. The T-wolves outscored the Jazz 33-16 in the fourth quarter on Friday, giving the team some momentum heading into the rematch. Towns comes in with a string of four straight double-doubles, in which he's averaged 28.8 points and 13 rebounds. Utah center Rudy Gobert was questionable on Friday with a sore hamstring but gutted it out to finish with 18 points, 16 rebounds and four blocks. He may need to be 100 percent here in Minnesota. Utah went just 5 of 27 from the floor in the fourth quarter on Friday and I'm "all over" Minnesota here in this quick turn-around. The Jazz have been home for EIGHT of their last nine games, a period from Jan 9-25. Utah will get no 'love' here at Target Center, where the T-wolves are 16-8 SU this year (the pointspread is MORE than manageable). Good luck.,..Larry |
|||||||
01-26-19 | Warriors v. Celtics +3.5 | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
The Golden State Warriors have won THREE of the last four NBA titles and now are the hottest team in the NBA at the moment. The Warriors have won NINE in a row and at 34-14, own the West's best record and trail only the 35-12 Milwaukee Bucks for the league's best record, overall. Golden State won 126-118 at Washington on Thursday, despite Curry and Thompson combining to go 3-of-12 from beyond the arc. The Warriors continue a five-game road trip in Boston on Saturday night (ABC cameras will be there). The 30-18 Celtics are hardly 'chopped liver, ' as Boston has won five straight, after pushing its home winning streak to 10 in a row with a 123-103 victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday. Golden State hardly needs an introduction, as with Boogie Cousins now in the starting lineup at center (he started the last three games and averaged 13.0 & 7.0 in about 20 minutes), the Warriors start FIVE All-Stars! I'll by-pass the individual numbers and point out that Golden St leads the NBA in scoring (118.9 PPG), FG percentage (49.1) and FT percentage (82.0), while 'wallowing' with the league's second-best three-point percentage (38.9). Boston All-Star point guard Kyrie Irving (23.5-4.8-6.9) sat out Wednesday with an illness (flu) and Terry Rozier got the nod to start in his spot. Rozier responded by going 8-of-8 from the floor in the first half and scoring 22 of his 26 points before the break to set the tone as the Celtics coasted to a 20-point win. Can't imagine Irving will miss this one. Tatum (16.3 & 6.2), Morris (14.8 & 6.0), Brown (12.3 & 4.3) and Hayward (11.0-4.6-3.5) give Boston a plethora of quality frontcourt players plus there is always the versatile Horford (12.2-6.4-3.6). When these teams met last season in Boston (November), the Celics won 92-88, holding the Warriors to their fifth-lowest point total of the season. Boston enters this contest, second in the league in both opponents' FG (44.1) and three-point (33.4) percentage. Beware, the Warriors are just 9-11 as a road favorite this season. The TD Garden rocks tonight. Take Boston. Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
01-25-19 | Pistons v. Mavs -5 | Top | 101-106 | Push | 0 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Dal Mavericks at 8:35 ET. The Dallas Mavericks welcome the Detroit Pistons to the American Airlines Center on Friday night. Both teams come in 21-26 but while the Pistons seem to be going nowhere, the Mavs have made excellent strides coming off last season's 24-58 year. Luka Doncic (19.9-6.8-5.3) may have already locked up the ROY award and is the current leader of the new-look Mavs (future HOF Dirk Nowitzki is now just a cheerleader, averaging 3.8 & 1.8 in 16 games). The Mavs just ended a four-game skid with a 106-98 win over the Clippers. Detroit is coming off a win as well, after Wednesday's 98-94 road win over the New Orleans Pelicans (note: the Pistons won for just the EIGHTH time in their last 27 games). Power forward Blake Griffin scored 37 points in Detroit's win but center Andre Drummond (concussion) missed a third straight game. Griffin (26.3-8.1-5.3) went on a fourth-quarter roll by scoring 20 of his 37 in the stanza and he also finished with nine rebounds, seven assists and four 3-pointers. "He's carrying us, handling the basketball, making good decisions, just doing everything we could ask a franchise player to do," Detroit coach Dwane Casey told reporters. "He's been great. He sets the tone for us offensively. He'd probably have more assists if we knocked down more shots." As for Drummond (16.3 & 14.9), he's supposedly been cleared of the league's concussion protocol but that doesn't mean he'll play. Second-year PG Dennis Smith Jr. (12.7) returned to the Mavericks after an unhappy sabbatical and will again be in the lineup for Friday's game against the visiting Detroit Pistons. Smith missed six straight games due to friction over his role but shared the ball-handling duties with star rookie Luka Doncic in Tuesday's 106-98 victory (he had 17 points and eight rebounds in 37 minutes). Doncic is just 14-of-46 from the floor over the past three games and his take on Smith's hiatus was brief: "It shouldn't happen. It's bad for a team." Good for this team is SF Barnes, who is averaging 17.9 PPG after averaging 19.2 and 18.9 in his first two year's with the team. With Drummond questionable at best, the Pistons will be relying WAY too much on Griffin. Note that Detroit's only two other double digit scorers, guards Jackson (14.1 & 4.1 APG) and Bullock (12.1), are shooting a combined 37% overall and 31.8% on threes over the last 10 games. Amazingly, Griffin is the only player averaging 10 PPG or more over the team's last three. The Pistons are just 8-15 SU on the road, while Dallas comes in 17-6 SU & 16-7 ATS at home. What's more, Dallas is 16-5 ATS at the American Airlines Center when not laying more than nine points (that's the case, here). Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
01-23-19 | Nuggets v. Jazz -3 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Month is on the Ut Jazz at 10:35 ET. The Utah Jazz saw their six-game winning streak end on MLK Day, losing 109-104 at home to the Portland Trail Blazers. The 26-22 Jazz welcome the 31-14 Denver Nuggets to Salt Lake City tonight, with the Nuggets coming to town having won 10 of their last 13 games, after routing the the Cavaliers 124-102 last Saturday. Denver arrives with the second-best record in the Western Conference (only the 33-14 Warriors are better), while Utah currently owns the West's No. 7. The Jazz are only one game clear of the playoff 'cut line' but are also just 2 1/2 games out of the No. 4 seed, which holds homecourt advantage in the first round. PG Jamal Murray (18.8-4.5-4.9) scored 26 points in the win over Cleveland for his fourth straight game of shooting 50 percent or better. Standout center Nikola Jokic had 19 points, 12 assists and 11 rebounds against the Cavaliers for his third triple-double in the past seven games. He continues to lead Denver in scoring (19.6), rebounding (10.0) and assists (7.7). Denver has fought through key injuries to keep winning but it looks as if Harris (15.5), Millsap (12.8 & 6.7) and Barton (10.3) are now ready to play regularly. The Jazz lost at home to the Blazers, despite another outstanding effort by Donovan Mitchell (22.0-3.7-3.7). He scored 36 points and has scored more than 20 points in each of the past nine games, averaging 29.8 points during the stretch. Center Rudy Gobert (14.9 & 13.1) has recorded eight straight double-doubles and has 39 on the season. He matches up will against Jokic plus PG Ricky Rubio (12.8 & 6.0 APG) returned from a six-game absence due to a (hamstring) to score 12 points in just 14 minutes against Portland. Starters Ingles (11.5-3.9-4.9) and Favors (11.2 & 7.3) also average in double figures, while SF Crowder (12.0 & 4.8) and SG Korver (9.8 PPG on 40.0% three-point shooting in 26 games) have been excellent contributors off the bench. Utah is in "revenge mode" after losing 103-88 in the Mile High City back on Nov 3. In that contest, the Nuggets outscored the Jazz 35-15 in the fourth quarter. Denver is trying to halt a SEVEN-game losing streak in Utah, one in which the Jazz have won by an average of 14 points, holding the Nuggets below 90 points in FIVE of those wins. Note: Utah allows 105.0 PPG, 3rd-best in the NBA. Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
01-23-19 | Raptors v. Pacers -5 | Top | 106-110 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Ind Pacers at 7:05 ET. Toronto capped a 3-0 homestand with a 120-105 win over Sacramento last night. Star swingman Kawhi Leonard (27.6 & 7.9) missed his third game in a row for the Raptors and he is not expected back until Friday at Houston. Surprisingly, the 36-13 Raptors are 11-2 without Leonard this season. Toronto plays again tonight, when it visits Indianapolis to take on the 31-15 Indiana Pacers. The Pacers are 11-4 in the last 35 days but two of those losses have come against the Raptors. Toronto edged Indiana by three points in a Dec 19 win and then won 121-105 in the rematch on Jan 6 (both games were played in Toronto). Toronto overcame Leonard's absence last night with a 16-for-40 showing from behind the arc. CJ Miles made four-of-five from long-range and is averaging 13.7 points in just 16.7 minutes over his last three games (he averaging only 5.5 PPG on the season). PG Kyle Lowry (14.1-4.4-9.4) finished with 19 points and nine assists while Fred VanVleet (10.4 & 4.6 APG) also scored 19. Toronto is still without center Valanciunus (12.8 & 7.2), who hasn't played since Dec 12 (he hopes to be back by mid-Feb). Stepping up big time for Toronto this season has been PF Ibaka (16.2 & 7.3) and the 6-9 Siakam (15.0 & 6.9), who is one of the NBA's most improved players.(he averaged 7.3 PPG last season and just 4.2 in his rookie year). Both of Indiana's losses to the Raptors have been in Toronto."They beat us twice, but we feel like we're right there," Pacers PG Darren Collison said. "Eliminate some mistakes and we'll be OK. We match up pretty well against them. But if we want to be one of the best in the East, this shouldn't be a statement game. We should go out and compete and win. I feel like if you're the best, it shouldn't be a statement game. Statement games are for teams that are underdogs. I don't think we feel like underdogs." Collison (9.5 & 5.6 APG scored 19 points and handed out nine assists while Bojan Bogdanovic chipped in 16 points in Sunday's 120-94 victory over the Hornets. Bogdanovic is averaging 16.0 & 4.1 on the season, second to Oladipo (19.2-5.7-5.3), the Pacers' best player. Indiana's depth is impressive, with PF Young (12.6 & 6.0) and center Turner (12.8 & 7.3) rounding out the team's starting-five. However, Sabonis (15.0 & 9.6) has been a 'monster' off the bench plus Evans (10.9) is starting to feel at home with his latest new team (note: he's averaging 15.5 points in 18.7 minutes over his last six games). . This is almost a "must win" for the Pacers. Indiana has lost four in a row to top teams in the Eastern Conference (twice to Toronto and once each to Boston and Philly). The Pacers are now only 3-7 against teams with a .600 or better winning percentage. I realize that the Raptors are 8-1 in the second game of back-to-backs but this is a game Indiana has to win if it has any hope of playing with confidence this postseason. I've got that feeling and will bet on it! Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
01-21-19 | Rockets v. 76ers -5 | Top | 93-121 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Phi 76ers at 8:05 ET. Reigning MVP James Harden has been in quite a 'zone!. He's scored 30-plus points in 19 straight games, while topping 40 in 10 of his last 13. The Rockets rallied from 18 points down in the second half Saturday to beat the Los Angeles Lakers 138-134 in overtime. Harden scored 48 in the game and is averaging 54.3 points over Houston's last three contests. The 26-19 Rockets will travel to Philadelphia for a MLK Day game with the 30-17 Sixers, who saw their three-game winning streak come to an end Saturday with a 117-115 home loss against Oklahoma City, as they turned the ball over 17 times overall and allowed a four-point play by Paul George with 5.1 seconds left. Houston now sits one game out of third place in the Western Conference after starting the season 11-14 through its first 25 contests.The Rockets continue to fight through injuries, although Chris Paul is expected back soon (early Feb). However, center Clint Capela (career high averages of 17.6 PPG and 12.6 RPG) is out until late-February with a thumb injury. Good news comes in the form of Gordon (16.2) returning to the court the last two games, averaging 25.0 points. Rivers (12.6 PPG in 13 contests) was a great sign after Paul got hurt and veteran swingman Green (9.2 PPG) has averaged 12.7 PPG during the 14 games that Paul has missed. Joel Embiid led the way with 31 points, eight rebounds and six assists in the loss to OKC. Ben Simmons had 20 points, 15 rebounds and nine assists but despite those efforts, the Sixers weren't able to convert on their last possession with Simmons looking to be confused after handing the ball to Jimmy Butler beyond the three-point arc. Embiid (27.0 & 13.2) is the first Philadelphia player to score at least 30 points in 20 of his first 45 games of a season since Allen Iverson (2005-06). Butler checks in at 19.0-4.8-3.4, Redick at 18.5 PPG and Simmons at 16.6-9.5-8.2. However, I'm not convinced the 76ers are better off with Butler, after exchanging him for valuable role players like Covington and Saric. That said, I sure like Philly to bounce back from its Saturday home loss to OKC. While Harden remains 'on fire,' Houston has cooled off a bit while alternating victories in its last nine outings (5-4 SU and 4-5 ATS). More notably, the Rockets have had trouble scoring away from home since Dec 1, with the exception of the team's 135-134 win at Golden St on Jan 3. Let me point out that excluding that contest, Houston is averaing a very modest 10.1 PPG in its other eight away games since Dec 1. Philly is 19-5 SU at home this season, while averaging 118.9 PPG. Yes, Harden "gets his" but Philly gets the win and COVER! Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
01-18-19 | Pelicans v. Blazers -2.5 | Top | 112-128 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
The New Orleans Pelicans have struggled defensively all season and are coming off having allowed their highest point total of the current of the season in Wednesday's 147-140 loss at Golden State on Wednesday. The 21-24 Pelicans visit Moda Center tonight and the good news is that New Orleans swept Portland in the first round of last season's playoffs. The 27-19 Blazers defeated Cleveland 129-112 on Wednesday, Portland's seventh win in 10 games, with five coming by double digits. Nikola Mirotic missed 12 game s recently with ankle woes but scored a season-high 29 points and matched his season best of six 3-pointers against the Warriors. The 6-11 Anthony Davis misses Mirotic when he's out of the lineup. It's turning into another typical year for A.D, who ranks third in the NBA in scoring (29.4) and rebounds (13.4) plus second in blocked shots (2.6). Surprising, two more Pelicans average 20-plus points for New Orleans, PG Holiday (20.8-4.6-8.2) and backup PF Randle (20.1 & 9.2). Guards Moore (12.6) and Payton (10.7-3.9-5.9) are also regular contributors. Scoring is NOT an issue but defense is, as New Orleans allows 115.5 PPG (28th). Damian Lillard scored 33 points in Wednesday's win over the Cavs, after recording 35 two nights earlier in a loss to Sacramento. Lillard's having another excellent season, averaging 26.2-4.4-6.1 and is teamed with backcourt mate McCollum (20.6). Center Jusuf Nurkic (14.8 & 10.4) posted his first career triple-double against the Cavaliers as he registered 10 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists while also blocking five shots. Nurkic became the 16th player in NBA history to reject five or more shots while recording a triple-double. Portland can match New Orleans' offense and comes in allowing 107.0 PPG its last 10. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are just 6-18 SU on the road, allowing 117.1 PPG. Portland is 19-7 SU at home this season, including a 132-119 home victory over the Pelicans back on Nov 1. Forget that 4-0 sweep in last yerars first round, as Portland has won 13 of the last 15 regular-season meetings! Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
01-17-19 | 76ers v. Pacers -3 | Top | 120-96 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* TNT Knockout is on the Ind Pacers at 7:05 ET. The 29-16 Philadelphia 76ers and the 29-14 Indiana Pacers both showed off how good they can be on Tuesday. The 76ers blew out the Minnesota Timberwolves 141-107 and the Pacers did the same to the Phoenix Suns, 131-97. The two Eastern Conference contenders square off tonight, as the Pacers host the 76ers. Indiana sits in third place in the East, one game ahead of Philadelphia, Philadelphia shot 59.8 percent from the floor against Minnesota and handed out 40 assists on 55 made FGs. The 76ers also set a franchise record with 21 made three-pointers as Wilson Chandler (4-of-6), Joel Embiid (4-of-6), Jonah Bolden (4-of-5) and Jimmy Butler (3-of-4) all 'lit it up' from beyond the arc. Joel Embiid (27.0 & 13.3) led the way by scoring 31 points and grabbing 13 rebounds against Minnesota.. Ben Simmons (16.7-9.5-8.2) had 20 points, 11 rebounds and nine assists, despite sitting out most of the fourth quarter. Butler is averaging 18.7-4.9-3.2 and SB Redick averages 18.3 PPG but Philly's problem is that the above mentioned players pretty much carry the entire load. Another problem is a defense which allows 112.4 PPG (22nd). Indiana's defensive effort on Tuesday was led by center Myles Turner, who returned from a four-game absence due to a shoulder injury and delivered 18 points and six rebounds while a pair of blocks pushed his NBA-leading total to 105. SEVEN Indiana players scored in double figures on Tuesday but NOT All-Star guard Victor Oladipo, who managed eight points on 2-of-11 shooting. However, Oladipo is the team's best player, averaging 19.5-5.8-5.2. Five more Pacers score in double digits in Bogdanovic (16.3 & 4.0), Sabonis (15.2 & 9.7), Turner (13.1 & 7.1), Young (12.5 & 6.0) and Evans (10.6). PG Collison just misses at 9.2 PPG plus a team-best 5.6 APG. Unlike Philly, Indiana allows just 103.1 PPG, best in the league! Philadelphia earned a 100-94 win in its last trip to Indiana on Nov 7 and here, will be looking for consecutive wins at Indiana for the first time since it won three straight from Dec 22, 2004, to Nov 5, 2005 (that's a long time ago). The Pacers have been very streaky vs the spread but they have still been mostly winning those games they weren’t covering. Indiana has won NINE of its last 11 games coming into this contest. The Pacers are 15-5 SU at home, where they allow only 97.0 PPG. Meanwhile, the 76ers are a so-so 10-12 on the road, where they allow a whopping 116.1 PPG. With this line, the Pacers are the play. Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
01-16-19 | Jazz v. Clippers -1.5 | Top | 129-109 | Loss | -118 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the LA Clippers at 10:35 ET. Utah shooting guard Donovan Mitchell continued his strong play with 28 points in the Jazz's 100-94 Monday win over the Detroit Pistons. He leads all Utah scorers at 21.5 PPG on the season and is averaging 30 points over the past six contests. Utah's win over the Pistons completed a 4-0 homestand, as the Jazz are now 24-21 and head to LA on a season-high four-game winning streak. The 24-19 LA Clippers fell 121-117 to the New Orleans Pelicans on Monday and have opened a four-game homestand 0-2, while losing three straight, overall. Utah center Center Rudy Gobert (14.8 & 12.8) matched his career best of 25 rebounds against the Pistons plus also contributed 18 points and two blocked shots. All five of Utah's starting-five average in double digits but PG Ricky Rubio (12.8 & 6.2 APG) missed a fourth straight game with starter with a hamstring injury. Yes, the Jazz are 4-0 without him but his absence is NOT good news. Also, reserves Dante Exum (7.4) and Raul Neto (4.9) are sidelined. LA fell to New Orleans on Monday but SF Danilo Gallinari ((19.7 & 6.1) has scored 20 or more points in six of the past eight games after recording 25 against the Pelicans and he is averaging 20.3 points during the stretch.PF Tobias Harris leads the team in scoring (20.8) and rebounding (8.0), while sixth-man Williams (18.6 & 4.9 APG) continues to be a major force. Coming off the bench (like Williams) and also making a huge impact is power forward Montrezl Harrell (16.0 & 6.8). He scored 26 points vs the Pelicans and has exceeded 20 points in three of the past four games, averaging 21.5 points during the span. Utah comes in off four straight wins (all at home) and this trip to Staples Center represents the team's LONE road contest in a nine-game stretch (Jazz return home for another four-game homestand, beginning Friday). I realize that the Jazz have won the last three meetings with the Clippers but that comes after losing 19 of the previous 21 matchups! "We just gotta stop putting ourselves in these holes," Harrell told reporters after the loss to the Pelicans. "Yeah, we do a great job of coming back and fighting and getting back into it, but we're running out of gas. We're using so much energy and we're doing so much fighting to put ourselves just within three (or) five." No Rubio and playing its ONLY road game in a nine-game stretch is NOT a good situation for heh Jazz. The Clippers shoot the ball extremely well, making 47.4% of their FGs (6th), including 38.8% on threes (4th). LA is averaging 116.2 PPG at Staples Center this season and "gets things right" in this one. Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
01-12-19 | Spurs v. Thunder -5 | Top | 112-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
My NBA 10* Weekend Wipeout is on the OKC Thunder at 8:05 ET. The Oklahoma City Thunder will get a chance to redeem themselves quickly, after suffering a crushing double-overtime loss in San Antonio on Thursday. Thursday's meeting was an "instant classic," as San Antonio's LaMarcus Aldridge scored a career-high 56 points on 20-of-33 shooting while adding nine rebounds and four blocks to lead his team to a 154-147 victory. FYI... Aldridge wasn't the only player making history on Thursday, as Russell Westbrook recorded 24 points, a career-high 24 assists and 13 rebounds to mark the second 20-10-20 game of his career. Westbrook is the only player besides Magic Johnson and Oscar Robertson to post multiple 20-10-20 games (not bad company). San Antonio had shot 36.1 percent from the floor, including 11-of-27 from three-point range, in a 96-86 loss at Memphis on Wednesday but the very next night at OKC, made 16-of-19 from three-point range, setting an NBA record for the highest percentage (84.2) by a team with at least 15 attempts from beyond the arc. Spurs PG Derrick White scored a career-high 23 points on 10-of-17 shooting on Friday. However, White averages 8.5 PPG and 3.5 APG on the season. DeMar DeRozan (22.2-6.2-6.5) and Aldridge (20.7 & 8.6) lead the nightly charge for San Antonio but as always with a Pop-coached team, "the whole is always greater than the sum of its parts." Westbrook is again averaging a triple-double (21.3-10.8-10.7) but Paul George (26.9 & 8.) is the team's leading scorer. Center Adams (15.4 & 10.1) is having a very good year , as his backup PG Schroder (15.2 & 4.4 APG) and PF Grant (12.6 & 5.0). Let's also note that the Thunder's Terrance Ferguson was forced into the starting lineup thanks to the prolonged injury of Andre Roberson and has been a top-flight defender all year but has struggled on offense (5.2 PPG). Ferguson was shooting just 30.2 percent from behind the three-point line before going 11 of 14 in the last two games, including 7 of 10 in the loss at San Antonio (he's scored 35 points in his last two games). Yes, the Spurs have learned to be an excellent team with a new "cast of characters" but San Antonio has not been a good road team (7-13 SU on the season, including 3-6 in its last nine). I have to believe the Thunder can't wait to avenge that double-OT loss from Thursday here at Chesapeake Energy Arena. I will NOT ignore the fact that OKC is 16-4 SU and 15-5 ATS at home vs San Antonio since the Spurs beat the Thunder in their playoff tussle in the Conference Finals in 2012 Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
01-11-19 | Hornets v. Blazers -6.5 | Top | 96-127 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Por Blazers at 10:05 ET. The 19-21 Charlotte Hornets will visit the Moda Center Friday night to take on the 25-17 Portland Trail Blazers. Since mid-December, the Hornets are 5-8 (4-9 ATS), while the Blazers are 10-4 (8-6 ATS). Charlotte's visit to the Pacific Northwest is the fourth stop on a six-game trip for a team that has dropped six of its last nine games. Meanwhile, the Trail Blazers have won five of their past six games and they shot 56.6 percent from the floor in Wednesday's 124-112 home win over the Chicago Bulls. Starting shooting guard Jeremy Lamb (hamstring) returned to the lineup for teh Hornets in Tuesday's 128-109 in LA to teh Clippers, after a two-game absence. Lamb (15.3 & 5.6) recorded 16 points and six rebounds in 29 minutes and he's an important cog. "He looked solid. He looked healthy," Charlotte head coach James Borrego told reporters afterward. "I didn't feel like he was limited at all. He had a good performance and I think we've got him back in the mix now." Backup shooting guard Malik Monk (10.8) scored 24 points against the Clippers for his fifth 20-point effort of the season.However, the problem for Charlotte all season has been the lack of consistent scoring other than PG Kemba Walker (25.1-4.3-5.8). The Blazers own a dynamic backcourt duo in Lillard (25.9-4.5-6.1) and McCollum (20.9) but it isn't going unnoticed just how well center Nurkic continues to play. He's averaging 15.3 & 10.4, while shooting 51.1% from the floor. Portland has at least 25 assists in a season-best four consecutive games, after producing 28 in its 12-point win against the Bulls The Moda Center in Portland has been a 'house of horrors' for teh Hornets for a decade. as the Blazers have won 10 in a row (9-1 ATS) when hosting the Hornets. The Trail Blazers are 22-6 at home versus the Hornet, all-time. Not much changes tonight. Lay it! Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
01-10-19 | Clippers v. Nuggets -5.5 | Top | 100-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Week is on the Den Nuggets at 9:05 ET. The Denver Nuggets went 46-36 last season, the franchise's first winning season since 2012-13 (George Karl's final year). However, the Nuggets failed to make the postseason last year, for the fifth consecutive season. Therefore, it's impossible NOT be surprised that the Nuggets own the West's best record at the mid-point of the current season rapidly approaches, at 27-12. Denver welcomes the LA Clippers to Pepsi Center tonight, a team which sports a 24-16 record and comes in having won seven of its last 10, after a three-game winning streak. Los Angeles claimed a 128-109 home win over the Charlotte Hornets on Tuesday and has won by double digits in each of its last three wins. Sixth-man Lou Williams (18.5 & 4.9 APG) had 27 points and 10 assists for his third double-double of the season, one of four Clippers to score 20 or more points. Leading the way offensively is PF Tobias Harris, who was acquired in the Griffin trade. He is averaging 21.1 & 8.0 on the season. The team's No. 2 scorer is former Denver standout Danilo Gallinari (19.5 & 6.2). LA ranks fourth in the NBA by averaging 116.0 PPG. Denver claimed a 103-99 road win over the Miami Heat on Tuesday, as center Nikola Jokic had 29 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists for his fourth triple-double of the season . He leads the team in scoring (19.2), rebounding (10.1) and assists). "Hell of a win," Nuggets head coach Michael Malone told reporters afterward of a victory that came on the second end of a back-to-back that began with a 125-113 loss to the Houston Rockets. Jamal Murray (18.4) is the team's second-leading and the Nuggets are hoping gaurd Gary Harris (16.0) and PF Paul Millsap (13.2 & 6.7) stay healthy. Millsap has been back for six straight but Harris, after playing three straight, was out vs Miami with a hamstring issue and is not expected to play tonight. These teams split two meetings in Los Angeles earlier this season but in the most recent game, Denver was routed 132-11 by Clippers at Staples on Dec 22. Anyone really think that LA will hit 57% from floor (including 10 of-20 on threes) on the road, like the Clippers in that late-December romp at home? Note that Denver, never known for its defense, is showing a different side this season, allowing just 105.5 PPG (4th-best). The Nuggets are 16-3 at Pepsi Center, outscoring opponents 112.8-to-101.7. Lay it. Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
01-08-19 | Wolves v. Thunder -8 | Top | 119-117 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner i on the OKC Thunder at 8:05 ET. The Minnesota Timberwolves fired head coach and president of basketball operations Tom Thibodeau on Sunday, after he led the team to a 108-86 win over the Los Angeles Lakers. The T-wolves never "came together" under Thibodeau, as the drama surrounding Jimmy Butler before his Nov 12 trade to Philadelphia, and dropping six of seven games during one stretch in December, eventually cost him his job. "We've gone ... halfway through the season, and I don't think we're where we thought we would be, or where we think we should be," Minnesota owner Glen Taylor told the Minneapolis Star Tribune. "We still have hopes to get into the playoffs, and I think with half the season left, let's see if this change will make a difference." The Thunder aren't dealing with that sort of organizational upheaval but will need to bounce back after a shocking 116-98 loss to the Washington Wizards at home on Sunday. "We did well on the road, we had some big games that we won and just one of those nights you come home and you see an opponent like the Wizards ... you just fall into that trap," Oklahoma City forward Paul George told reporters. The 19-21 T-wolves named assistant Ryan Saunders (son of former coach Flip Saunders) as the interim coach, while GM Scott Layden will take over some of Thibodeau's front office responsibilities. The Timberwolves are winners of back-to-back games and five of their last eight but this team is two games under .500, coming off a 47-35 season. Minnesota is the very definition of average, scoring 111.4 PPG (14th) and allowing 110.8 PPG (17th). OKC was a 10-point favorite over the Wizards on Sunday and while Russell Westbrook posted his third triple-double in the last four games with 22 points, 15 rebounds and 13 assists, he committed eight of the team's 15 turnovers in the surprising 18-point loss. George added 20 points in the loss, his the 14th straight game in which he scored 20 or more. George (26.8-8.0-4.0) leads the team in scoring, while Westbrook (21.1-11.0-10.1) is again averaging a triple-double. However, notable this season is the solid play of backup PG Schroder (15.2), center Adams (15.2 & 10.2) and PF Grant (12.4 & 4.8) plus the fact that OKC is now one of the league's better defensive teams (105.8 PPG ranks 5th). OKC opened the season 0-4 but now sits 25-14. The Thunder are 13-5 SU at home, while the T-wolves are just 5-15 SU on the road, Expect a VERY focused OKC team here, as not only are the Thunder coming off an embarrassing home toss to the troubled Wizards (Washington is just 16-24) but they HAVE to remember the fact that Minnesota earned a 114-112 win at Oklahoma City on Dec 23, behind 30 points from Andrew Wiggins. Lay it! Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
01-07-19 | Nuggets v. Rockets -1 | Top | 113-125 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* 35-Club Play is on the Hou Rockets at 8:05 ET. The Houston Rockets had their six-game winning streak come to an end with Saturday's 110-101 loss at Portland, just the Rockets' second defeat in the team's last 13 games. Notably, James Harden's run of 40-point games came to an end at five straight, as he finished with "just" 38 points! However, he’s had at least 35 points and five assists in eight straight games, breaking an NBA record held by Oscar Robertson. The 22-16 Rockets welcome Denver to Houston Monday night, with the Nuggets arriving with a 26-11 record. That represents the West's top mark and Denver arrives on a five-game winning streak after a 123-110 victory over the Charlotte Hornets at Pepsi Center on Saturday. Denver's victory over Charlotte was the team's 10th consecutive home win (note: The Nuggets' previous home loss came on Nov 13 against the Rockets). The Nuggets are finding they have their own superstar in center Nikola Jokic, who scored a season-high 39 points on Saturday. He leads the team in scoring (18), rebounding (10.0) and in assists (7.5). Guard Jamal Murray was held to eight points on 3-of-13 shooting on Saturday but is the team's second-leading scorer at 18.5 PPG. Barton remains sidelined for Denver but head coach Michael Malone has gotten guard Gary Harris and PF Paul Millsap back. Both are being worked back into the rotation after missing nearly a month and three weeks, respectively. Harris (16.1) played his third straight game since returning against the Hornets and scored 17 points while adding six rebounds and five assists in 26 minutes. Millsap (13.4 & 6.7) has been back for four games, averaging 10.0 & 4.2. Houston knows all about playing through injuries, as well. PG Paul (15.6 & 8.0 APG) has missed the last seven games and backup guard Gordon (15.6) has missed the last three. Houston won six in a row without Paul, before Saturday's loss. Harden averaged 42.2 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 9.5 assists while shooting 41.9 percent on three-pointers over those first six games without Paul. Since Gordon has been out, recent addition Rivers has averaged 42 minutes and 17.0 points in starting three in a row, while swingman Green has chipped in 15.7 PPG over the last three. Backing Harden game in and game out is center Capela, who is having a career season (17.2 & 12.9), He's had 21 rebounds in each of his last two plus has topped 20 rebounds in FOUR of his last seven games. No way I'll buck the Rockets here, as since losing 128-108 at home to Dallas on Nov 28, Houston is 9-0 SU and 8-0-1 ATS at home.Yes, Denver has the West's best record and comes in on a five-game winning streak, but the Nuggets last four wins have come over 9-32 Phoenix, 10-29 New York, 19-20 Sacramento and 19-20 Charlotte. Harden leads Houston to yet another home win, with ease! Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
01-04-19 | Thunder v. Blazers +1 | Top | 111-109 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Por Trail Blazers at 10:35 ET. The Oklahoma City Thunder opened the season 0-4 but as they visit Moda Center tonight in Portland, OKC sports a 24-13 record, the West's second-best record. The Thunder have won seven of their last 10 games and face a Portland team that has also won seven of 10, leaving them 22-16 on the season (currently own the West's No. 5 seed). The Trail Blazers won all four of last season's meetings and tonight, OKC will be looking to end an eight-game losing streak in Portland. Paul George scored 37 points in Wednesday's 107-100 road victory over the Los Angeles Lakers and has now topped 20 points in each of his last 12 games, averaging 32.1 points during the stretch. George leads OKC in scoring on the season at 26.7 PPG. Former MVP Russell Westbrook has been in a shooting slump all season, making 41.6 percent from the floor, only 23.6 percent from three-point range and shooting just 62.6 percent from the free-throw line. However, in the Thunder's 107-100 victory over the Los Angeles Lakers Wednesday night at Staples Center, Westbrook totaled 14 points, 16 rebounds and 10 assists, despite going 3-for-20. He became the first player in the NBA in 32 years to notch a triple-double while shooting 15 percent or lower. Westbrook is again averaging a triple-double on the season (20.7-10.9-10.4). OKC ranks 4th in points allowed (105.4 per) and No. 1 in defensive efficiency but will have its hands full with Portland. The Blazers are led by the outstanding guard tandem of Lillard (26.7-4.8-5.8) and McCollum (21.1) plus center Nurkic (14.7 & 10.5) collected a career-best 23 rebounds in the team's Jan 1 victory over Sacramento. He also had 24 points, seven assists, five blocked shots and five steals. Nurkic is averaging 21.5 points, 13 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 1.8 blocks and 1.8 steals while shooting 56.6 percent from the floor in the team's last four games (3-1). Let me add that the 6-9 PG Aminu is quietly averaging 9.4 & 8.0. Portland is 14-6 SU at home (no need to cover with this line), where it averages 114.0 PPG. How does one ignore the fact that the Blazers won all FOUR of last year's meetings (by an average of 6.5 PPG) or that the Blazers have won SIX straight overall against the Thunder OR that the Thunder haven't tasted victory in Portland since Feb 11, 2014? Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
01-03-19 | Raptors v. Spurs -1.5 | Top | 107-125 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the SA Spurs at 8:05 ET. The 28-11 Toronto Raptors will take the NBA's second-best record into this TNT showdown with the 21-17 San Antonio Spurs. Toronto has owned the NBA's best record for most of the season but just recently, the 26-10 Milwaukee Bucks have caught and passed them (.722 to .718). However, Toronto's 13-7 road mark is an NBA-best but the Raptors come to San Antonio with the Spurs playing their beat basketball of the season, having won 10 of 13. Then again, all of the above will take a backseat to Kawhi Leonard making his highly-anticipated return to San Antonio. Leonard was once a beloved figure and NBA Finals MVP for the Spurs but returns as a villain after last season's falling out with the franchise, following seven seasons and the subsequent trade to Toronto. Leonard played in just nine games for San Antonio last season due to a quadriceps injury and the difference in opinions over the treatment options partially resulted in the gulf that couldn't be resolved. Leonard has sure put his injuries (?) behind him with Toronto, averaging 27.3 & 8.2. He has missed nine of 39 games this season but he's been in standout form of late, with a career-best streak of 14 straight 20-point outings, including a career-high 45-point effort Jan 1 vs Utah. Pascal Siakam (14.9 & 6.6) had a career-best 28 points with 10 rebounds in the win over the Jazz. However, All-Star PG Kyle Lowry (14.4-4.5-9.8) didn't play for the eighth time in nine games because of a sore back (not expected to play here) and center Jonas Valanciunas (12.8 & 7.2). The Spurs are on a 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS run, as they welcome the Raptors to AT&T Center. Leonard's return overshadowed everything but don't forget, DeMar DeRozan felt misled when he was shipped from Toronto to San Antonio after nine seasons in Canada. DeRozan, along with center Jakob Poeltl, were moved to the Spurs from Toronto in the trade that sent Leonard to the Raptors. DeRozan, after some early reservations about the trade, has settled in to become San Antonio's leading scorer (22.9-5.2-5.9). Aldridge (19.8 & 9.0) has been a steady force plus as always with a Pop-coached team, the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. The Spurs are 15-5 SU and 14-6 ATS at home and owns a 32-12 all-time mark against Toronto including a 18-4 record at home, which includes a current run of NINE straight wins at home over Toronto. For tonight, it's DeRozan over Leonard. Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
01-01-19 | Blazers v. Kings +1.5 | Top | 113-108 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Sac Kings at 9:05 ET. It's no surprise that the Portland Blazers sit 21-16 as the calendar turns to 2019, as the team has been to the postseason in each of the last five years and is coming off a 49-win season. However, it is a surprise to see the Sacramento Kings at 19-17, as the franchise hasn't been to the postseason (or made the playoffs) since the 2005-06 season (Kings won just 27 games last year!). The teams meet for the first time this season on Tuesday night at Golden 1 Center, with both coming off home-and-home series in the past week. The Trail Blazers won 110-109 at Golden State on Thursday, before the two-time defending champs turned the tables in a 115-105 victory in the rematch at Portland on Saturday. However, Portland responded with one of its most impressive efforts of the season, a 129-95 rout of the Philadelphia 76ers at home on Sunday night. The "big news" in the win was CJ McCollum (21.2) scoring 35 points on 13-of-18 shooting. He had entered the game having shot just 38.7 percent overall and 22.5 percent on three-pointers while averaging 16.9 points in his previous eight outings. Mccollum is joined in the backcourt by Lillard, who checks in at 26.8-4.7-5.8. The duo is the third-highest scoring backcourt tandem in the NBA. Center Jusuf Nurkic (14.5 & 10.1) has put together three straight strong efforts and is averaging 20.7 points on 25-of-43 shooting and 9.7 rebounds during the stretch. While the Blazers were dealing with the Warriors, the Kings were dueling the LA Lakers. They won 117-116 at home on Thursday but then lost 121-114 in the rematch on Sunday at Staples Center. Thursday's win improved the Kings to a season-best-tying three games over .500 at 19-16. PG De'Aaron Fox scored 26 points on Sunday, marking his sixth effort of 25 or more points in the past 13 games. Fox is a big reason why the improving Kings are two games above .500, averaging 18.2 PPG and 7.7 APG. SG Buddy Hield enters the new year in a shooting slump, having totaled just 38 points in his last three games on 13-for-43 shooting overall and 4-for-19 on threes but he is having a very good season (19.7 PPG). These teams have similar records but while Portland has been the "more reliable" squad for quite some time now, current form favors Sacramento.Portland comes in just 8-16 ATS since mid-November, including 3-10 ATS on the road. Portland has been on a 'rollercoaster ride' since Christmas. The Blazers lost Dec 25 at Utah (117-96) but followed with a 110-109 OT win at Golden St. Golden St then won the rematch 115-105 in Portland, before the Blazers routed the 76ers the next night. In contrast, Sacramento has won FIVE of its last seven at home, falling to only OKC and Golden St (a game the Kings covered). Expect the Kings to 'catch' the Blazers on a down stroke here and win handily. Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
12-30-18 | Wolves v. Heat -3.5 | Top | 113-104 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Mia Heat at 6:05 ET. Will the Minnesota Timberwolves ever "get it together? The T-wolves suffered a 123-120 overtime loss at home to the lowly Atlanta Hawks on Friday and got booed as they left the court. Minnesota went 21-of-38 from the free-throw line in Friday's loss, with swingman Andrew Wiggins missing seven of his 12 attempts and drawing the most scorn from the home fans.The 16-19 T-wolves open a three-game road trip by visiting the 17-17 Miami Heat on Sunday. The Heat have climbed to .500 by winning SIX of their last seven, after rolling over the Cleveland Cavaliers 118-94 on Friday. Karl-Anthony Towns (24.2 & 11.8) had 31 points, 19 rebounds, five assists and three blocks on Friday but was not happy that the team fell into a big hole in the first half. "An edge, we didn't play with no edge," Towns told reporters. Heading to Miami, the Timberwolves could be without their top-two PGs. Starter Jeff Teague (11.6 & 8.3 APG) is out until mid-January with an ankle issue and backup Derrick Rose (18.9 & 4.8 APG) sprained his right ankle on the final play of regulation in the loss to Atlanta. He's questionable. Meanwhile, the Heat are without 2018 All-Star PG Goran Dragic (15.3-3.1-4.9), who hasn't played since Dec 10 and is expected to miss several more weeks after knee surgery. In his absence, the Heat have found a surprising answer in SF Justise Winslow (11.6-5.2-3.7), who had never played point guard before this month. Miami is 5-1 since it started using Winslow at the point and Winslow is coming off one of the best games of his career in Friday's 118-94 win (24-11-7). Winslow is teaming with SG Richardson, who leads Miami with 18.4 PPG. Minnesota has had its problems with the matchups in recent years against Miami (1-7 ATS the last eight games) and a big reason is the presence of center Hassan Whiteside (13.2 & 12.8), who gives Karl-Anthony Towns fits. The Timberwolves have dropped seven of their last 10 games overall and are just 4-13 SU on the road for the season (little margin here for a cover, without a win). Meanwhile, Miami has gone 6-1 ATS at American Airlines Arena its last seven, plus has gone 10-1 ATS is last 11, overall. Miami is the bet! Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
12-29-18 | Warriors -3.5 v. Blazers | Top | 115-105 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* signature 35-Club Play is on the GS Warriors at 10:05 ET. The Warriors visit Portland's Moda center tonight, after losing 110-109 in OT just two night ago to the Blazers, in Oakland. Damian Lillard buried a three-pointer with 6.3 seconds left in overtime on Thursday, giving the Trail Blazers a one-point lead that would become the final score, when Kevin Durant missed a jumper at the other end. "That's a shot I work on every day," Durant told reporters. "I'm pissed I missed that." This contest is the back end of the home-and-home set. The 23-13 Warriors enter having lost back-to-back games for the second time this season plus lost FOUR in a row from Nov 15-21. Clearly, this year's team is not playing like the team which has won THREE titles in the last four seasons, including B2B the last two years. KD averages 28.7-7.8-6.3, Curry 28.6-5.0-5.2 and Thompson 20.9 PPG. Green's rebounding and assist numbers are similar to the last four seasons but his scoring is down about four PPG. More troubling, he's "had his moments" being a disruptor for the Warriors, not their opponents. Portland relies heavily on its guard tandem of Lillard (26.7-4.7-5.8) and McCollum (21.0), plus center Nurkic (14.3 & 10.2). Nurkic collected 27 points on 10-of-18 shooting and 12 rebounds on Thursday, as he took advantage of a Warriors team lacking a true center. Still, Portland's overall depth keeps them from being a serious contender for the NBA title. Obviously, despite their struggles this season, the Warriors still have to be the favorite to win another title. Listen to Curry after Thursday's loss. "It was just kind of stagnant in the first half," the Warriors star told reporters. "Not a lot of thrust and energy and aggressiveness. Defensively we were OK after the first three or four minutes. Other games it's been indecisiveness in certain stretches of the game. We're getting teams best shots, so we got to fight our way through it. And just claw and scratch and get to that 48-minute level that we dominate teams, and we can get there." Note that the Warriors almost won Thursday night, despite making just 13 of 44 three-pointers (29.5%) and attempting only 15 FTs, while making only SIX (40%). Golden St shoots 48.0% from the floor on the season (ranks 1st), makes 37.6% on three-pointers (4th) and 82.1% on FTs (1st). This one will NOT come down to the wire! Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
12-28-18 | Spurs v. Nuggets -3.5 | Top | 99-102 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Den Nuggets at 9:05 ET. The 21-11 Denver Nuggets welcome the 19-16 San Antonio Spurs to Pepsi Center tonight. The Nuggets own the West's best record, just percentage points better than the two-time defending champion Warriors (.656 to .639). However, while the Spurs are currently on the outside-looking-in on the Western Conference playoff field, they come in the hotter team. The Spurs seek their ninth win in their last 11 games, with one of the team's eight wins over its last 10 coming 111-103 over the Nuggets in San Antonio, just this past Wednesday. Tonight's contest completes a home-and-home between the teams The Spurs have scored at least 110 points in all eight wins during their 10-game stretch, seemingly putting a sluggish start to the season in the rear-view mirror. SG DeRozan (23.3-5.7-6.2) and PF Aldridge (18.9 & 9.1) have been the team's two "go-to" players. However, as with all Popovich teams, the whole is always greater than the sum of its parts. Center Nikola Jokic is the team leder in points (17.7), rebounds (9.8) and assist (7.3) but was a non-factor on Wednesday, scoring just FOUR four points on 1-of-5 shooting, while collecting only FOUR rebounds in 31 minutes. The loss was Denver's fourth in a row on the road, as the strain of missing three starters seems to be taking a toll. Swingman Will Barton has missed nine weeks after core muscle surgery, SG Gary Harris (16.6) has been out eight games with a hip injury and PF Paul Millsap (13.6 & 7.0) has missed seven with a broken toe. However, despite missing the above-mentioned three starters and with Jokic "way off his game" Wednesday night in San Antonio, Denver still had an 80-79 lead with 10 minutes remaining. Then, the Spurs went on a 15-0 spurt and went on a 23-4 run to put the Nuggets away. Juancho Hernangomez tied a career high with 27 points and grabbed 13 rebounds for Denver, while Malik Beasley added 22 points and Monte Morris had 15, both off the bench. Denver takes a 7-0 SU & ATS home winning streak into this Pepsi Center contest, where the Nuggets have gone 13-3 SU & 12-4 ATS on the season. In this quick turnaround, revenge works! Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
12-26-18 | Nuggets v. Spurs -3 | Top | 103-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the SA Spurs at 8:35 ET. The 2018-19 season opened Oct 16 and it seemed almost a given that the Golden St Warriors would win a THIRD straight NBA title, their fourth in five years. However, as the NBA moved past Christmas Day, it's the 21-10 Denver Nuggets who own the West's best record (the Warriors are second-best at 23-12). This is the same Nuggets team which last made the postseason back in the 2012-13 season, when Denver won 57 games. That season was Denver's 10th straight playoff appearance, so naturally it fired head coach George Karl, who had led them to NINE straight postseason berths. Anyway, the Nuggets will be in San Antonio Wednesday night to take on the 18-16 Spurs, who have won seven of their last nine games, although their last outing resulted in a 108-101 loss to the Houston Rockets on Saturday (note: Rockets have won SEVEN of eight). The Nuggets have been one of the NBA's best teams but they are coming off getting pounded 132-111 by the LA Clippers on Saturday, as the team's four-game winning streak came to an end. "From the get-go, we just weren't here," Denver head coach Michael Malone told reporters. "A lot of defensive breakdowns, not ready to play. Give them credit. We weren't ready. They were and they totally dominated us." The 21-point margin against the Clippers represented Denver's largest loss of the season. The Nuggets were dominated "up front," getting out-rebounded 56-37 and out-scored by a 80-50 margin in the paint. Denver center Nikola Jokic was ejected midway through the third quarter, finishing with 19 points, six rebounds and three assists in 21 minutes. He leads Denver in scoring (18.2) and rebounding (10.0). Jamal Murray (17.6) finished with 18 points, while Monte Morris added 15 points. Morris, the team's backup PG, is averaging 15.4 points on 32-of-53 shooting over the past five games. Shooting guard DeMar DeRozan (23.1-5.6-6.3) scored 28 points in the loss to the Rockets and it marked just his third 20-point outing in the past seven games. However, DeRozan has an outstanding 65-to-14 assists-to-turnover ratio over the last nine games, posting seven or more assists on seven occasions and one or no turnovers six times. Power forward LaMarcus Aldridge (18.6 & 9.3) is averaging just 14 points over the last two games, after scoring 20 or more in each of the previous four contests. Out of nowhere, the "new-look Spurs" are starting to resemble "the old Spurs." San Antonio had garnered each of its previous five victories by at least 25 points (only the second team in NBA history to claim that feat), before falling 108-101 on Saturday at Houston. The Spurs and Nuggets split their season series 2-2 in 2017-18, with the both teams winning on their home courts. This marks the first meeting of the season for the teams and note it's the first game of a home-and-home between the them (play Friday in Denver). The Spurs seek to capture their 12th consecutive home win over Denver, as the Nuggets haven't won in San Antonio since posting a 99-94 victory back on March 4, 2012. Want to buck taht trend here, knowing that Coach Pop’s team has had the NBA’s best offense and second-best defense over its current stretch? Not I. Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
12-23-18 | Hornets v. Celtics -7 | Top | 103-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Bos Celtics at 6:05 ET. The 16-15 Charlotte Hornets visit the TD Garden on Sunday to take on the 18-13 Boston Celtics. It's likely the Celtics will be in a nasty mood, as Boston has lost three in a row following an eight-game winning streak. As for the Hornets, they are back above .500, after Marvin Williams scored a season-high 24 points in Friday's 98-86 home win over the Pistons. Charlotte has now won two straight and five of its last seven. Kemba Walker, who leads the Hornets with 25.0 PPG, added 22 points on Friday, as Charlotte finished its longest homestand of the season with a 3-2 mark. Walker is also averaging 6.3 assists and 4.4 rebounds per game on the season, all of which are career-high numbers. However, he doesn't get much help, as shooting guards Lamb (14.9) and Monk (10.6) are the only other Charlotte players averaging in double figures. Boston's three-game slide includes the first two games of what will be a four-game homestand. The Celtics first lost to lowly Phoenix and then Friday night, Milwaukee pulled away for a 120-107 triumph. That prompted a closed-door postgame meeting. "At this point it comes down to cohesion, being able to trust the pass, trust what we have going on out there," point guard Kyrie Irving told reporters after the door was finally opened to the locker room. "Obviously some selfish play out there where ... we have some really talented guys, but we're better as a team sharing the basketball." Here's the rub. Off that Friday night loss to Milwaukee, Boston couldn't ask for a better opponent on Sunday than Charlotte. The Hornets are no better than an average team plus the Celtics can't possibly forget losing at Charlotte back on Nov 17, 117-112. Walker 'killed' Boston with a 43-point outburst, ending Boston's seven-game winning streak over Charlotte. What's more, the Celtics had been 11-1 SU & 10-1-1 ATS in their previous 12 series meetings with the Hornets. Boston returns to form, right here! Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
12-21-18 | Wolves v. Spurs -4 | Top | 98-124 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the SA Spurs at 8:35 ET. The 14-17 Minnesota Timberwolves visit at the AT&T Center in San Antonio on Friday to take on the 17-15 Spurs. Minnesota heads to the Alamo City after a 129-123 home OT loss to Detroit on Wednesday, one in which the Timberwolves led by 14 points heading to the fourth quarter (I remember it well, losing on the T-wolves!). Meanwhile, the Spurs return home after a 129-90 win over Orlando. The victory was the Spurs' first win away from San Antonio since Nov 26 at Chicago (Spurs are just 5-10 on the road). Minnesota 'limps' in' having lost five of its last six games and six of its last nine. Minnesota is beginning a three-game road stretch on the heels of that devastating overtime loss to the visiting Pistons on Wednesday (Andre Drummond tapped in a putback with 0.6 seconds left to send the game into OT. "The fourth quarter is different and you have to react to what's going on, so that is disappointing," Minnesota coach Tom Thibodeau told reporters after Wednesday's game. "I think they had 78 (points) after three, and then a 40-point fourth quarter. And then all we had to do was get a stop, and we give up a second shot. That can't happen." San Antonio will be carrying a little swagger into this game plus benefit from a mostly rested lineup after winning six of their past seven games without needing their front-line players late in those contests. San Antonio's last four wins have all been by 25 or more points, making them the fourth team all-time to attain that mark, joining the 1971-72 Bucks (five straight), the 1974-75 Warriors and 1992-93 Rockets. Don't look now but Pop has his team looking as good as any team in the West. San Antonio is 7-3 SU in December (7-2-1 ATS), outscoring opponents by 12 PPG and shooting 53% as a team. Need More? How about this? San Antonio will certainly have some revenge motivation, after being blown out by 39 points at Minneapolis in late November, losing 128-89. It represents one of the Spurs' worst losses of the Popovich era. I'm NOT done. San Antonio improved to 50-9 all-time at home against Minnesota with a 112-108 win on Oct. 17 and the Timberwolves haven't won in San Antonio since posting a 108-95 victory back on April 17, 2013 in the regular-season finale when Rick Adelman was coach! I’m laying the 'cheap number' and expecting a rout. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
12-20-18 | Mavs v. Clippers -3.5 | Top | 121-125 | Win | 103 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* TNT Knockout is on the LA Clippers at 10:35 ET. The 15-14 Dallas Mavericks enter off a 126-118 road loss in Denver on Tuesday, the team's THIRD straight defeat. The skid comes on the heels of Dallas exceeding expectations by winning 12 of its previous 15 games(note: The Mavs won just 24 games last season!). Meanwhile, the Clippers were one of the league's biggest surprises while jumping off to a 15-6 start, but after a 131-127 home loss to Portland on Monday, they have dropped seven of nine games (including a season-worst four straight losses!). The play of rookie Luka Doncic (18.4-6.7-4.9) has been "the talk of the town" in Dallas but after an excellent stretch (see above), the Mavericks are starting to come undone. The Mavs enter this contest on a four-game ATS slide and note that they are just 1-4 ATS after scoring 110 points or more in back-to-back games. The Clippers allowed a season worst for points in Monday's 131-127 home setback against the Portland but I fully expect them to be fully motivated for this one. Center DeAndre Jordan returns to Staples Center as a visiting player for the first time against the Clippers, of whom he spent his first 10 NBA seasons. What's more, the Clippers lost not long ago in Dallas (Dec 2 to be exact) by the score of 114-110, as Jordan scored 16 points and added 23 rebounds (a season high he has since matched). The Clippers are 9-4 SU at home (6-3 as a home favorite), where they average 114.8 PPG. In contrast, the Mavs are just 2-11 SU on the road and this pointspread won't leave them much of a "margin of error" to cover without winning SU. Revenge works here, so for all the reasons listed above, play on the Clippers. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
12-18-18 | Lakers -2 v. Nets | Top | 110-115 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the LA Lakers at 7:35 ET. The 18-12 LA Lakers are coming off a 128-110 thumping on Sunday in Washington (trailed by as many as 27 points) but let's not ignore that LA is 16-7 over the team's last 23 games. Meanwhile, the 13-18 Brooklyn Nets are on a five-game winning streak, their longest since March 25-April 3, 2015. The current run follows a frustrating eight-game losing skid that saw them struggle to close out games. LBJ was held to a season-low 13 points on 5 of 16 shooting on Sunday and said, "We have to get some rest." James was held under 20 points for just the fourth time this season and added, "We have two days so no excuses obviously with the game being on Tuesday. I watched the game before we played. They put up 140 something points, so we have to be ready to defend for 48 minutes." Sunday's loss followed a 28-point win in Charlotte on Saturday night when James and Lonzo Ball both recorded triple-doubles but the Lakers could not produce an effective follow-up performance as they committed 22 turnovers. Brooklyn's five game winning run began with an overtime home win against the Toronto Raptors on Dec 7, then continued with road wins over the New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers before the Nets returned home to beat the Washington Wizards and Atlanta Hawks. During the streak, the Nets are averaging 122.8 points, while shooting 50.2 percent from the floor (including 40.4 percent from three-point range). The Nets are also averaging 27.4 assists and assisting on 63.1 percent of their baskets. Bottom line is this. Do the above just-noted numbers sound ANYTHING like the Brooklyn team we've come to know and love? Yes, the Nets have scored at least 120 points in three straight games (all wins) but that's despite allowing at least 54 percent shooting. FYI...They are the first team to do so since the Houston Rockets in 1987-88. Off an embarrassing Sunday loss at Washington, LBJ carries the Lakers to a comfortable win, here. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
12-17-18 | Jazz v. Rockets -5 | Top | 97-102 | Push | 0 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Hou Rockets at 8:05 ET. The Jazz look poised for another letdown here in my opinion after getting upset 96-89 against Orlando in Mexico City on Saturday. The Rockets on the other hand, have started to turn things around. The team's impressive 105-97 road win at Memphis on Saturday was the Rockets' third in a row (also 3-0 ATS). Reigning MVP James Harden has averaged 37.0-7.7-8.3 during the streak. Note that this is a “double revenge” scenario as well, with Utah having already taken both earlier meetings this year, including a 118-91 home blowout victory in the most recent matchup December 6th. The Jazz average 106.8 PPG and they concede 106.6. It’s a fine line that Utah has to balance each night and right now it’s not going so well as the Jazz have lost three of their last four. Donovan Mitchell was a bright spot in the loss last time out with 24 points. Houston's season numbers are underwhelming but the feeling here is that the Rockets are beginning to show signs of looking more like last year's 65-win team. It’s a perfect storm of factors working in favor of hungry Houston. I’m laying the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
12-15-18 | Lakers +1 v. Hornets | Top | 128-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Lakers (7:05 EST). This one has “blowout” written all over it in my opinion. And we don’t have to overthink this one at all. LA got steamrolled by James Harden's 50-point triple-double in a 126-111 loss at Houston on Thursday but enjoyed the advantage of relaxing in Charlotte on Friday night while the Hornets were working overtime with the New York Knicks. In fact, the Hornets entered the fourth quarter with a 15-point lead on Friday, before suffering an 'ugly' 126-124 overtime loss. Charlotte has won six of the last 7 in this series but the Lakers have covered SIX straight in Charlotte. Of course, those games were all played before LBJ "took his talents" to Los Angeles. "King James" has gone 17-5 in North Carolina for the Cavaliers and Heat over the past 14 seasons, scoring 30 or more points 10 times and 35 or more four times, with a high of 41 in a 118-105 win last March. With the bonus of a scheduling advantage (see above), expect LBJ to lead LA to the team's 16th win in its last 22 games. At this price, I'm "all in" on the Lakers. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
12-14-18 | Raptors v. Blazers +3 | Top | 122-128 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
My NBA 10* Game of the Month (Non-Conf) is on the Por Blazers at 10:05 ET. The Toronto Raptors opened the current season 12-1 before losing three straight from Nov 12-16. However, after dominating road wins at the LA Clippers on Tuesday (123-99) and at the Golden St Warriors on Wednesday (113-93), the entire NBA is 'looking up' at the Raptors and their NBA-best 23-7 mark. Meanwhile, the Portland Blazers opened the season an impressive 10-3 but after back-to-back road losses this week at Houston (Tue) and Memphis (Wed), the team welcomes the Raptors to Moda Center having dropped 10 of its last 15 games (3-12 ATS). Toronto dominated the two-time defending champions in that 113-93 road win on Wednesday, despite being without Kawhi Leonard (hip). PG Kyle Lowry had shot 4-of-28 from the floor over a four-game span but made 17-of-31 FG attempts against the Warriors and Clippers in Toronto's first two contests of this four-game road trip. Meanwhile, the Blazers are returning home after a two-game road trip (see above). Shooting guard CJ McCollum scored 40 points on 16-of-27 shooting in Wednesday's 92-83 loss to the Grizzlies but the rest of the team went 16-of-60 (26.7%) from the floor. That includes PG Damian Lillard (4-of-18) and center Jusuf Nurkic (1-of-15)! Toronto had lost three of four before beating the Clippers and Warriors. Leonard (26.1 & 8.3) sat out both wins with a balky hip (he's listed as questionable here). Also, center Jonas Valanciunas (12.8 & 7.2) underwent surgery Wednesday night after dislocating his left thumb against the Warriors. He will wear a cast for four weeks and then begin rehabilitation. Sure, the Blazers are reeling but just how does Toronto avoid a letdown? Any chance that Lillard (27.0-5.1-6.1) and Nurkic (14.5 & 10.5) will combine to shoot 5-of-33 again, as they did Wednesday against Memphis? Portland brings back memories of "RIP City" in earning a BIG win in this one. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
12-13-18 | Lakers +5.5 v. Rockets | Top | 111-126 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* TNT Knockout is on the LA Lakers (8:05 EST). The Rockets have been consistently inconsistent to open the 2018/19 NBA campaign and after a 111-104 home win over Portland in their latest action, I expect this trend of futility to continue here against this hungry visiting side. The Lakers come to town off a 108-105 home win over the Heat. Note that this is a “triple revenge” game for the Lakers as well, including losing the first meeting of the year 124-115 back on October 20th. LA is quietly dominating, as it comes in having won two straight and six of its last seven. Overall the Lakers average 113.1 PPG and they concede 110.9. LeBron James averages 28.3 points, 7.7 boards and 7.1 assists per night. Houston averages only 108.4 PPG and it concedes 109.5. James Harden leads the nightly charge with 30 points and 5.3 boards per game. I’ll point out though that the Rockets are a terrible 1-5 ATS in their last six when playing on one days rest, while LA is 6-1 ATS in its last seven following an ATS loss. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
12-12-18 | Blazers v. Grizzlies -3 | Top | 83-92 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* WEST-CONF GAME OF MONTH is on the Memphis Grizzlies (8:05 EST). The Blazers enter off a hard-fought and exhausting loss in Houston just last night and I think it’ll come in with “heavy legs” in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. The Rockets were desperate for a victory last night and so too are the Grizzlies after a two game slide in this one. I don’t think that the home court advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular selection. Damian Lillard was a bright spot in last night’s loss for the Blazers, finishing with 34 points, two boards and two assists, but one has to wonder how much “gas” he has left in the tank here? The Grizzlies have looked a lot better this season, but after being held to under 100 points in back-to-back games, I think that Marc Gasol, Mike Conley and company get out and push the pace of this one from start to finish. I’ll point out as well that memphis 11-4 ATS in its last 15 at home and 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games vs. teams with losing SU road records, while Portland is now 0-5 ATS in its last five on the road. Memphis is tough at home (8-4) and in my opinion, it has a significant advantage tonight. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
12-10-18 | Jazz v. Thunder -6 | Top | 113-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Oklahoma City Thunder (8:05 EST). The Jazz enter off a loss in San Antonio just last night and I think they’ll stumble here as well in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. The Thunder have turned their season around after a horrible start, but they’ll be eager to return to form after a 114-112 road loss to Chicago. Utah is scuffling right now, having gone 5-6 in its last 11. Overall the Jazz are averaging 107.4 PPG and conceding 107.6. Rudy Gobert is averaging 15 points and 12.4 boards per game. OKC averages 111.1 PPG and it concedes 104.4. The Thunder are 9-3 SU at home and I think they’ll lay the hammer down from start to finish in this one. Note that Utah is a horrible 14-25 ATS in its last 39 as a road underdog of six points or less, while OKC is 24-15 ATS in its last 39 as a home favorite of six points or less. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
12-08-18 | Kings v. Pacers -3 | Top | 97-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Indiana Pacers (7:05 EST). Both teams are playing the second game of a back-to-back, which really makes home court a big advantage for the Pacers in this match-up in my professional opinion. The Kings come in off a big 129-110 road win in Cleveland, while The Pacers return home off a big 112-90 win over Orlando on Friday. Note that this is an in season revenge game for Indiana, which fell 111-110 in Sacramento only last week. It’s a natural letdown spot for Sacramento, which plays its final game of its Eastern swing. Sacramento averages 114.7 PPG and it concedes 116.6. De’Aaron Fox averages 17.3 points and 7.5 assists per night. Indiana comes in having won straight. The Pacers average 105.8 PPG and they concede just 102.1. Victor Oladipo leads the nightly charge with 21.4 points, 6.6 boards and 1.56 steal per game. Even with Oladipo out, I love the Pacers here. Note that Sacramento is a terrible 10-17 ATS in its last 27 after covering five or six of its last seven games against the spread, while Indiana is 5-2 ATS in its last seven when playing the second game of a back to back. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
12-06-18 | Rockets v. Jazz -1.5 | Top | 91-118 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* Knockout is on the Utah Jazz (10:35 EST). Houston has allowed 116.1 PPG over its last nine games. It has caused the team's defensive rating to tumble to 25th among NBA teams. The Rockets' offense has not been up to last year's standard (109.2 PPG ranks 18th) ) and it hasn't been able to keep up. The result has been five losses over their last seven contests. Meanwhile, Utah has won four of its last six games and knocked down a franchise-record 20 three-pointers in Tuesday's 139-105 rout of the San Antonio Spurs (10 different players connected on at least one from behind the arc during the impressive victory). Utah cruised to a 100-89 road win in the first matchup of this series back in late October and I believe it’ll have an even easier time of it today. Note as well that Utah is 4-1 ATS in its last five when playing on one days rest, while Houston is interestingly 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. Rockets’ star Chris Paul was just one of eight form the floor in the loss to Minnesota most recently and I think he’ll struggle again here against this surging home side. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
12-05-18 | Nuggets -5 v. Magic | Top | 124-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Denver Nuggets (7:05 EST). At some point the Nuggets are going to have a letdown, but I don’t think that tonight is that night. Denver enters off a confidence building 106-103 road win over the Raptors. The Magic come in off a very satisfying win in Miami just last night and I think they’re primed for a predictable letdown vs. this deep and talented non-conference visiting side. The Nuggets come in on top form having won six straight. Denver averages 110.2 PPG and it concedes 102.7. Nikola Jokic leads the way with 16.7 points, 9.7 boards and 7.5 assists per night. The Magic average 105.8 PPG and they concede 108.1. Clearly that’s not a recipe for long-term success. Nikola Vucevic leads the nightly charge with 21 points, 11.3 boards and 3.8 assists per night. I’ll point out as well that Orlando is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600, while Denver is 4-0 ATS in its last four on the road. Look for these strong trends to continue and lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
12-04-18 | Magic v. Heat -2 | Top | 105-90 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Miami Heat (7:35 EST). Orlando comes in off a 99-85 road win over Phoenix on Friday and I think it’ll stumble here with the extra time off and in this difficult venue. The Heat enter off a confidence building 102-100 home win over Utah on Sunday. Note that this is a revenge game as well for Miami after the Magic won 104-101 in the first meeting at home back in mid October. Orlando is averaging 105.8 PPG and it’s conceding 108.1. Nikola Vucevic leads the way with 21 points, 11.3 boards and 3.8 assists per night. Miami averages 108.2 PPG and it concedes 109.6. Hassan Whiteside is averaging 13.6 points, 13.9 boards and 2.9 blocks per game. I’ll point out as well that the Magic are a terrible 3-6 ATS in their last nine when playing with three or more days of rest, while Miami is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 in trying to revenge a close loss of three points or less to an opponent. Miami has won back-to-back games and I look for it to keep the foot on the gas here as well and to avenge the earlier loss to their division rival. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
12-02-18 | Pelicans v. Hornets -3 | Top | 119-109 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Charlotte Hornets (5:05 EST). New Orleans enters off a 106-101 setback in Miami on Friday, while Charlotte comes in off a 119-111 home loss to Utah on Friday. These teams haven’t played yet this season, but Charlotte does play with revenge here as well, as New Orleans has taken four straight in the series. The Pelicans have now lost four of their last five. They come into this game averaging 117.7 PPG and conceding 116.5. Anthony Davis leads the way with 27.8 points, 12.7 boards, 4.6 assists, 2.74 blocks and 1.53 assists per game. While New Orleans is 7-5 SU on the road, note that it’s just 4-8 ATS in those contests. Charlotte is back to .500 after its two game win streak was snapped by the Jazz, but the good news is that it still has a hold on the division lead. The Hornets average 114.7 PPG and they concede 110.4. Kemba Walker leads the nightly charge with 27.1 points and 6.2 assists per night. I’ll point out as well that New Orleans is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road dog of six points or less, while Charlotte is 8-4 ATS at home and 4-1 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Hornets. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
12-01-18 | Warriors v. Pistons +5.5 | Top | 102-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Conf Crusher is on the Detroit Pistons (7:05 EST). The Warriors welcome back captain Stephen Curry to the line-up, but I think the defending champs are still going to need some time to get back on track and gain their normal chemistry. Most recently the Warriors come in off an exhausting 131-128 OT loss in Toronto, a game in which Kevin Durant went for 51 points. The surging Pistons look to take advantage after their fourth straight win, most recently over Chicago in blowout fashion. Golden State averages 116.5 PPG, while conceding 111.5. As mentioned off the top, having Curry back will clearly start to turn things around for the Warriors, but as also stated earlier, I do definitely fel that “instant chemistry” is out of the question in this one. And that’s because the Pistons are firing on all cylinders, averaging 111.8 PPG and conceding 110.7. Blake Griffin leads the nightly charge with 25.1 points, 9.6 board and 5.1 assists per game. I’ll point out as well that Golden State is just 3-7 ATS on the road this year, while Detroit is 6-2 ATS as an underdog. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
11-29-18 | Pacers v. Lakers -4.5 | Top | 96-104 | Win | 100 | 16 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Lakers (10:35 EST). After back-to-back losses, the Lakers are the “hungrier” team tonight. Indiana on the other hand comes in contented after back-to-back road wins, including a 109-104 victory in Phoenix on Tuesday. But Pacers star Victor Oladipo is sitting this one out with injury and I believe The King and company get back on track and take advantage. Overall Indiana is averaging 106.5 PPG and it’s allowing 102.2. Oladipo leads the nightly charge with 21.4 points and 6.6 boards per game, but as mentioned off the top, he’s sitting this one out. The Lakers are averaging 112.8 PPG and they’re conceding 112.9. James leads the way with 27.6 points, 7.9 boards and 6.7 assists per night. I’ll point out though that Indiana has struggled against the better offensive teams in the league so far this season, going just 5-8 ATS vs. good offensive teams which average 106-plus points per night. And note that the Lakers are a solid 4-2 ATS vs. teams with winning records. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
11-28-18 | Spurs +4.5 v. Wolves | Top | 89-128 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the San Antonio Spurs (8:05 EST). The Spurs enter off a 108-107 road win over Chicago on Monday, while the Wolves held on for a 102-95 road victory over the Cavs on Monday. If recent history is any precedence, then the Spurs have to be liking their chance today as they’ve taken two straight in the series, including a 112-108 home victory in the first meeting back on October 17th. San Antonio is averaging 109.6 PPG and it’s allowing 110.1. DeMar DeRozan is averaging 24.8 points and 6.3 assists per night. Minnesota is averaging 109 PPG and it’s allowing 111.2. Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 20.8 points and 12.2 boards per game. I’ll point out thought that Wolves are just 6-8 ATS in their last 14 following a three games or more unbeaten streak, while the Spurs are already 6-3 ATS as an underdog this season. After three straight wins and six in their last eight, this sets up as natural letdown spot for the home side in my opinion. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
11-27-18 | Lakers v. Nuggets -4 | Top | 85-117 | Win | 100 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Denver Nuggets (9:05 EST). I like the Nuggets to avenge a 121-114 road loss in LA back on October 25th. LA enters off a poor 108-104 home loss to Orlando, while Denver comes in off a confidence building 105-98 road win in Oklahoma City on Saturday. LA had won seven of eight before Sunday’s loss. LeBron James was a bright spot in the setback, scoring 24 points and dishing out seven assists. Overall the Lakers are averaging 114.2 PPG and conceding 112.7. Denver averages 109.9 PPG and it concedes 103.2. Big man Nikola Jokic scores 16.6 points per game average. I’ll point out though that Denver is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 following an ATS victory, while LA is a poor 1-4 ATS in its last five when playing on one days rest. The Nuggets are especially though at home, and they play with revenge here. I like Denver to pull away down the stretch for a comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
11-26-18 | Rockets v. Wizards +4 | Top | 131-135 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Washington Wizards (7:05 EST). The Rockets have been terrible of late and I think they’re going to stumble here in the Nation’s capital as well. Houston enters off a 117-108 road loss to the Cavs, it’s second straight setback. The Rockets are clearly going to be “hungry” here, but Washington enters even hungrier. The Wizards broke a three-game slide with a 124-114 home win over New Orleans and I believe they carry that positive momentum over here as well. Houston is averaging 106.9 PPG and it’s conceding 107.9. Clearly that’s not a recipe for long-term success. The Rockets are led by James Harden with 30 points, 5.1 boards and 7.9 assists per game. Washington is averaging 112.2 PPG and it’s conceding 117.2. That’s not a recipe for success either, but as stated above, I think the Wizards keep the foot on the gas after the slow start to the season and following their big win over the Pelicans. Additionally note Houston is just 1-5 ATS this year after allowing 115 points or more in its previous contest, while Washington is 6-3 ATS in its last nine after scoring 120 points or more in a victory in its previous outing. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
11-25-18 | Knicks +8.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 103-98 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New York Knicks (6:05 EST). Even with Kristaps Porzingis in the line-up for the Knicks (he’s not, he’s still injured!), Memphis is still a much better team than New York across the board. I won’t try to convince you otherwise either, I simply feel that the Grizzlies are going to get caught “looking past” their lowly non-conference opponent tonight. Besides, the Knicks come in off a confidence building 114-109 home win over the Pelicans, while the Grizzlies enter off an exhausting 112-107 OT loss on the road to the Clippers on Friday. New York has in fact won two straight. Overall the Knicks are averaging 108.9 PPG and conceding 114.3. Memphis is averaging only 103.3 PPG, making up for it on the other end with the No. 1 defense, conceding only 100.8 points. I’ll point out thought that New York is 8-2 ATS in its last ten non-conference road games in which it comes in on a two games or more SU unbeaten streak, while Memphis is just 1-4 ATS in its last five home games following an OT loss in which failed to score 110 or more points in. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab all those points! Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
11-24-18 | Celtics v. Mavs +2.5 | Top | 104-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Dallas Mavericks (8:35 EST). The Celtics come in off a win and cover in Atlanta last night and I think they’ll suffer a predictable letdown here in the second game of the back to back against their lowly non-conference opponent. Previous to last night’s win Boston had lost three straight and five of seven. Dallas on the other hand enters off a win as well, most recently outlasting Brooklyn 119-113. Harrison Barnes led the way in that one with 28 points. Overall though rookie Luka Doncic leads the Mavs with an average of 19.3 PPG. Note as well that Boston is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine when playing the second game of a back to back against a non-conference opponent in which it scored over 105 points in the first game and emerged victorious as well, while Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last six overall. The oddsmakers are slow in recognizing how well Dallas is playing right now. The Mavericks benefit in facing the C’s on the second game of a back to back and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
11-23-18 | Blazers v. Warriors -1.5 | Top | 97-125 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* WEST-CONF GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Golden State Warriors (10:35 EST). The Warriors are facing their most difficult stretch in a long time. Golden State comes in having lost four in a row and captain Stephen Curry remains sidelined with injury. A date against the Blazers, who have struggled away from friendly confines, is just what the doctor ordered for Kevin Durant and the two-time defending champs to get back on track with a big win. Portland comes in off a 143-100 loss at Milwaukee, while Golden State fell 123-95 to OKC in its latest action. The Blazers are averaging 114.2 PPG and they’re conceding 110.2. Damian Lillard leads the nightly charge with 26.4 PPG. Golden State is averaging 115.4 PPG and it’s conceding 111.1. Durant is averaging 27.2 PPG. I’ll point out though that the Blazers are a money-burning 4-5 ATS on the road this year, while Golden State is still 6-2 ATS in its last eight at home. I think Durant and Klay Thompson come to play tonight and the supporting cast finally shows up as well. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
11-21-18 | Blazers v. Bucks -6 | Top | 100-143 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Milwaukee Bucks (8:05 EST). No need to overthink this one. The Blazers come in “gassed” after a much tougher than expected 118-114 win over the Knicks in New York last night. The Bucks have been off since Monday after rallying for a 104-98 home win over the Nuggets on Monday. Note that this is an in-season revenge game for Milwaukee after the Blazers posted a 118-103 home victory back on November 6th. The Blazers are averaging 114.9 PPG and they’re conceding 107.9. Damian Lillard leads the nightly charge with 26.6 points and 6.1 assists per night. The Bucks are averaging 120.1 PPG and they’re conceding 109. Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the team with an average of 25.9 points to go with 12.7 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game. I’ll point out that Milwaukee is 8-1-1 ATS in its last ten at home and 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. teams with winning road record, while Portland is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games vs. teams with a winning home record. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
11-18-18 | Warriors v. Spurs -2.5 | Top | 92-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Rout is on the San Antonio Spurs (7:05 EST). The Warriors lost in Dallas last night and I believe the under-manned defending champions are ripe for the picking here as well. The Spurs come in hungry after a 116-111 road loss to the Clippers on Thursday. San Antonio though has had a few nights off to absorb the setback and I look for it to push the pace from start to finish here against the exhausted Warriors. Golden State is averaging 118.6 PPG and it’s conceding 110.8. Kevin Durant is averaging 27 points, 7.2 boards and 6.3 assists per game. The Warriors are without star Stephen Curry and Draymond Green is questionable with a toe injury. The Spurs are averaging 107.9 PPG and they’re conceding just 108.8. DeMar DeRozan averages 25.6 points and 6.3 assists per night. I’ll point out as well that the Warriors are now a poor 2-6 ATS on the road this year, while San Antonio is already 4-2 ATS this season when playing with two days of rest. The Spurs have lost three straight and five of six and they’ll be risking life and limb to score the victory here. Lay the points and expect a rout. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
11-17-18 | Jazz v. Celtics -4 | Top | 98-86 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Boston Celtics (7:35 EST). Both teams played last night. Utah fell 113-107 in Philadelphia and I think it’ll stumble here as well in this difficult road venue. The Celtics slugged out with Toronto at home and eventually pulled away for the 113-107 victory. The second game of a back-to-back is always difficult, but always much more so for the road team. I think fatigue will be a factor for the Jazz, who laid everything they had on the line last night to try and pull off the upset. Clearly the Celtics had to work hard as well, but again, the “not travelling factor” is huge in this case in my opinion. Furthermore note that Utah is just 34-40 ATS in its last 74 as an underdog, while Boston is 46-25 ATS in its last 71 when trying to revenge a loss against an opponent (Jazz claimed a 123-115 home win on Nov. 9th.) All signs point to a rout, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
11-16-18 | Jazz v. 76ers -3 | Top | 107-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Philadelphia 76ers (7:05 EST). The Jazz come in off a deflating 118-68 road loss in Dallas and I think they’re ripe for the picking here as well. Philadelphia enters off a 111-106 road loss to Orlando on Wednesday. The Jazz come in averaging 107.4 PPG and conceding 108.9. Donovan Mitchell had led the way with 20.4 PPG so far, while Rudy Gobert has chipped in 15.9 points, 13.2 boards and 2.21 blocks per contest. The 76ers return home and welcome the new acquired Jimmy Butler’s first home game. The 76ers are averaging 112.3 PPG and they’re conceding 112.8. Big Man Joel Embiid has been unstoppable so far, averaging 27.6 points, 13.4 boards and 2.13 blocks per game. I’ll point out that Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last five following an ATS loss, while the Jazz are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after scoring 75 points or less in their last outing. The 76ers are a “different” team at home, coming into this one undefeated thus far. And I look for that strong trend to carry over here in this favorable match-up. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
11-15-18 | Warriors v. Rockets -1.5 | Top | 86-107 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Rout Gold is on the Houston Rockets (8:05 EST). Golden State knocked off the Rockets in the playoffs last year. Chris Paul was injured in Game 5 and Houston wasted a 3-2 lead. The Warriors return to Houston without leader Stephen Curry and I think that Paul and company will lay the hammer down from start to finish. Note that Houston did take two of three in the regular season last year, including a 116-108 victory at home in the final one back on January 20th. Golden State enters averaging 120.7 PPG, while conceding 111 per night. Kevin Durant is averaging 27.5 points, 7.3 boards and 6.5 assists per game. Houston enters averaging 103.2 PPG and it’s allowing 106.7. James Harden is averaging 27.3 points, 5.6 boards and 7.7 assists per game. I’ll point out as well that Golden State is just 2-4 ATS on the road, while Houston is now 3-1 ATS in its last four vs. teams with winning records. Houston can move back to .500 with a win today. It comes in on top form having won five of the last seven. After a slow start the Rockets have returned to form on both ends of the floor, so their early season numbers are skewed after the slow start. Play on the Rockets. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
11-12-18 | Spurs -3 v. Kings | Top | 99-104 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the (10*) San Antonio Spurs (10:05 EST). San Antonio comes in off an impressive 96-89 home win over Houston and I think it carries that momentum over here against a Kings team which is already running out of gas after a hot start to the year, most recently falling 101-86 at home to the Lakers. San Antonio broke a two-game slide and it’s now averaging 109.5 PPG, while conceding 107.9. LaMarcus Aldridge averaged 18.3 points in three games vs. the Kings last year and he had 27 points and ten boards in the most recent win. Sacramento has lost three of its last four. The Kings average 115.3 PPG and they concede 116.8. Note that Sacramento s also just 1-4 ATS the last five in this series, while the Spurs are a sharp 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. the Western Conference. San Antonio appears to be back on track defensively, which spells trouble for Sacramento tonight. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
11-11-18 | Bucks v. Nuggets -3 | Top | 121-114 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Denver Nuggets (8:05 EST). Two teams which started off the year red hot have come back down to Earth of late. However, I don’t think that that home court advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular match-up. Milwaukee enters off a loss to the Clippers just last night, a game which went to OT. Can anyone say “letdown spot?” This is the finale of the Bucks longest West coast trip of the year (already won at Golden State) and in my opinion, I think Milwaukee gets caught looking ahead to a couple of well deserved days off. The Nuggets on the other hand will be out to atone for a 112-110 loss at home to the lowly Nets on Friday. Milwaukee is averaging 121.2 PPG and allowing 107.6. Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 25.6 points, 12.9 boards and 5.7 assists per game. Denver actually comes in off back-to-back losses, so “focus” for the home side is not something we have to worry about. Denver averages 109.6 PPG an fit concedes just 102.1. Nikola Jokic averages 17.6 points, ten boards and seven assists per game. I’ll point out as well that Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games vs. teams with a winning road record, while Milwaukee is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games against a team with a winning home record. The Bucks come in “gassed” at the end of their trip, and playing at “Mile High” against a determined Nuggets team proves to be too much once it’s all said and done. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
11-10-18 | Lakers -5.5 v. Kings | Top | 101-86 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the LA Lakers (10:05 EST). This is an important game for the Lakers, who also have a game at home tomorrown night against the Hawks. I think LeBron James and company put the foot on the gas from start to finish in this one as they try to sweep these two games and start to move in a positive direction. LA enters off a 114-110 win over the Wolves on Wednesday, while Sacramento comes in dog tired after last night’s 121-110 victory over Minnesota last night. The Lakers can score, averaging 118.5 PPG, which is ranked third in the league. The defense is the issue, allowing 119.1 PPG. While the Kings are an “up-tempo” style of team, LA does catch a break here catching the home side playing the second game of the back-to-back. The Kings are averaging 117.5 PPG and they’re conceding 118.8. De’Aaron Fox has been superb, averaging 18.7 points and 7.3 assists per game. I think it’s important to note though that Sacramento is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 against the division, while LA is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 vs. divisional opponents. Lay the points and expect a rout. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
11-08-18 | Rockets -4.5 v. Thunder | Top | 80-98 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* TNT Explosion on the Houston Rockets (8:05 EST). Houston has won three straight on the road, most recently a 98-94 win over Indiana on Monday. With two whole nights off to prepare, I look for the Rockets to come out on top here. OKC most recently beat Cleveland 95-86 on the road on Wednesday, but with a return home to friendly confines, I’m expecting a predictable letdown here. Note that Houston does play with a bit of revenge here as well, as the Thunder took two of three in the season series last year. The Rockets are averaging 105.3 PPG and they’re allowing 110.1. Of course those numbers are skewed due to the lousy overall start. Houston has started to turn things around of late, led by James Harden is averaging 27.8 points, five boards and 8.2 assists per night. OKC is averaging 113.2 PPG and it’s allowing 111.3. Russell Westbrook is leading the way with 24.1 points, 8.3 boards and 8.9 assists per game. I’ll point out though that the Thunder are in fact just 1-4 ATS in their last five home games vs. teams with winning road records, while Houston is 6-2 ATS in its last eight road games against teams with a winning home record. This is the second game of a back-to-back set for OKC and I believe it comes in “flat footed.” Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
11-07-18 | Wolves v. Lakers -5 | Top | 110-114 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the LA Lakers at 10:35 ET. Inconsistency has plagued both the T-wolves and Lakers early on. Minnesota has yet to win on the rod this season plus the team has been dealing with Jimmy Butler's "moods." Butler has been demanding a trade since the preseason and has sat out every other game since the win against the Lakers last week. He wouldn't discuss his status for Wednesday's game. LBJ and the Lakers are also still trying to find their groove and they trailed 41-17 after the first quarter on Sunday en route to losing 121-107 to the Raptors in a contest in which Toronto was missing star forward Kawhi Leonard (not a good sign). However, the bottom line is this. LA is a poor defensive team but the Lakers can score (118.9 PPG and 49.4 FG percentage both rank 3rd in the NBA) and the T-wolves are allowing 118.5 PPG in going 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS away from Target Center so far. 10* on the Lakers. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
11-05-18 | Celtics +2.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 107-115 | Loss | -103 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Boston Celtics (9:05 EST). Boston will look to be the first team in the league to knock off the Nuggets at home. Denver looks primed for a letdown in my opinion after four straight victories and facing this tough nosed defensive visiting side. The Nuggets already have some big wins under their belts, including over the Warriors, Pelicans and Jazz, but this sets up as a classic “letdown” spot in my estimation facing the non-conference opponent tonight (despite it being the Celtics). Nikola Jokic had just single digits scoring in the win over the Jazz, but he’d post ten boards and 16 assists as well. Boston comes in in a foul mood after a last second-three pointer cost them against the Pacers most recently. Kyrie Irving had 18 points, six boards and three assists in the setback. I’ll point out though that the road team is 4-1-1 ATS the last six in this series, while the underdog is 3-0-1 ATS the last four in the series. Also note that Boston is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
11-04-18 | Grizzlies v. Suns +4 | Top | 100-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Phoenix Suns (8:05 EST). What do you base your selections on? As a professional handicapper I base my picks on many different things. This one sets up great from a situational stand point for the Suns and it’s one I’m primarily basing this particular selection. The Grizzlies are 5-2 overall and they come in having won three straight. But with a date at Golden State tomorrow night, Memphis is expected to rest people tonight and clearly it’s not going to be able to help itself in getting caught “looking ahead” to that much more high profile contest. The Suns clearly don’t have that luxury though, as they come in having lost seven straight. They also play with revenge after falling to Memphis earlier in the season. Note that Memphis is just 10-19 ATS in its last 29 on the road and only 6-8 ATS In its last 14 after three or more consecutive SU victories, while Phoenix is 31-20 ATS in its last 51 after three or more consecutive SU losses. It’s do or die, now or never for Phoenix. Expect an outright, but grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
11-02-18 | Thunder v. Wizards -3 | Top | 134-111 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Washington Wizards (8:00 EST). The Oklahoma City Thunder got off to a slow start, but they go into Charlotte on a two game win streak on Thursday night. The Thunder come to the Nation’s capital “dog tired” here to face a Wizards team which comes in desperate after a 1-6 start, including going 0-2 at home. But a favorable matchup here against a “flat-footed” Thunder side, combined with a very “winnable” game against the Knicks on Sunday could have the Wizards completely turned around by the end of the weekend. It’s essentially a “do or die” game for the Wizards in my estimation and I expect the home side to “answer the call.” I’ll point out as well that the Thunder are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine in the second game of a back to back in which its playing on the road, while Washington is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after a four games or more unbeaten streak. Lay the points and expect a blowout. Play on the Wizards. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
11-01-18 | Bucks v. Celtics -3 | Top | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* Eastern Conf. Showdown is on the Boston Celtics (8:05 EST). The Bucks are 7-0, most recently coming in off a very satisfying 124-109 home win over Toronto. The Celtics are 5-2 and they enter off a 108-105 home win over Detroit. Milwaukee is averaging 120 PPG and it’s conceding 104.1. Giannis Antetokounmpo did not play against the Raptors, but he’s been given the green light to go here. So far Anteokounmpo has averaged 25 points and 14.2 boards per game. Boston is averaging 102.4 PPG, while conceding an NBA-best 97.6. Kyrie Irving had his best game of the season last time out, finishing with 31 points. Note that Boston is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 at home and 14-3 ATS in its last 17 home games against teams with winning road records, while Milwaukee is still just 1-6 ATS in its last seven on the road and 3-8 ATS in its last 11 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. All good things have to come to an end. I expect the Celtics’ league leading defense to finally throw a “monkey wrench” into the Bucks’ hot offensive start. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
10-31-18 | Mavs v. Lakers -6.5 | Top | 113-114 | Loss | -123 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the LA Lakers at 10:35 ET. To put it mildly, the "LBJ era" is off to a slow start in the City of Angels. The Lakers are still learning how to play with their new superstar and they'd really like to figure out how to win the close games. 2-5 Los Angeles lost its third game by four points or less Monday night at the Minnesota Timberwolves and all five losses have come by single digits. LA will host the 2-5 Mavericks at Staples Center, who also desperate for a win after dropping their past four games (all by single digits!. Dallas did push the San Antonio Spurs to overtime Monday before losing 113-108, but also committed a season-worst 23 turnovers. Dallas 'limps' in 0-4 away from home, averaging just 104.8 PPG. Sure, the Lakers are only 1-2 at home but they are averaging 126.0 PPG at Staples. With "all hands on deck" ( Lakers are back to full strength after starting SF Brandon Ingram completed a four-game suspension & backup PG Rajon Rondo a three-game ban for their roles in a fight with the Houston Rockets on Oct, 20), look for a 15-point win! From a trend based stand point, note that LA is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 home games against teams with road winning percentages under .400, while Dallas is just 2-6 ATS In its last eight against clubs with losing records. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
10-29-18 | Blazers v. Pacers -3.5 | Top | 103-93 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Indiana Pacers (7:05 EST). Portland finally stumbled after a great start, falling 120-111 in Miami on Saturday and I think it’ll have its hands full here as well with a Indiana team coming off a 119-107 road win over the Cavs on the weekend. Note as well as this does in fact set up as a “double revenge” scenario for the Pacers after the Blazers took both meetings last year. Overall Portland has averaged 122.4 PPG and allowed 117.2. Damian Lillard is averaging 33.8 points and 6.6 assists per game. The Pacers are averaging 111.7 PPG and they’re conceding just 102.8. Victor Oladipo is leading the nightly charge with 21.8 points, 5.3 boards and 1.5 steals per game. Additionally note that Indiana is 6-1 ATS in its last seven after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game, while Portland is just 1-5 ATS in its last six on the road and only 1-4 ATS in it last five when playing on one days rest. Indiana has looked very strong at home in the early going and I expect that trend to continue here. Lay the points, Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
10-24-18 | Grizzlies -2.5 v. Kings | Top | 92-97 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Memphis Grizzlies (10:05 EST). Memphis looked terrible in a season Opening loss, but it’s looked fantastic in two victories since and I think the “under-the-radar” Grizz can keep the momentum rolling in this favorable situation. Sacramento has struggled with defensive consistency early and it comes in “dog tired” here after last night’s 126-112 setback at Mile High Denver just last night. The Grizz enter off an impressive 92-84 win over Utah, as guard Mike Conley had 23 points, seven boards and four assists. The Kings are averaging 125.6 PPG, but they’re about to face their stiffest defensive test to date. After completely shutting down dynamic Jazz guard Donovan Mitchell, we have a hard time seeing Kings’ leading scorer De’Aaron Fox having much success today either. Memphis comes in having gone 18-10 ATS in its last 28 off an upset win as an underdog and I think it’s getting little respect in this spot. The Kings are “hungry” for a win, but the Grizzlies will be taking nothing for granted at this point after last year’s disastrous campaign. The Grizzlies’ offense catches a break here facing the league’s worst defense. Lay the points with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
10-21-18 | Warriors v. Nuggets +3.5 | Top | 98-100 | Win | 100 | 28 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Denver Nuggets (8:00 EST). Denver destroyed the Suns at home last night and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. It’s the start of the season, so the “fatigue” factor on the second game of the back-to-back is a “non-factor” in my opinion. Golden State has won its first two games of the regular season, including a thrilling buzzer-beater over Utah on Friday. But I think the Warriors will stumble in the thin air of Mile high on Sunday night. Steph Curry and Kevin Durant combined for 69 points in the win over the Jazz. It was a bitter fight to the end and Golden State is clearly “lucky” to have won it on a tip back from Jonas Jerebko at the buzzer. DeMarcus Cousins and Andre Igoudala remain on the sidelines injured. The Nuggets got a triple-double from Nikola Jokic last night with 35 points, 11 assists and 12 boards. Denver has plenty of talent and I think it’ll take the two-time defending champs down to the wire. I’ll point out as well that Golden State is just 50-51 ATS in its last 101 after scoring 115 points or more in its previous contest, while Denver is 40-30 ATS in its last 70 as an underdog. Grab the points, play on the Nuggets. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
10-20-18 | Spurs +4.5 v. Blazers | Top | 108-121 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the San Antonio Spurs (10:05 EST). The Blazers come in off an opening night victory over LeBron James and the Lakers and I believe they’ll suffer a predictable letdown here. San Antonio will look to take advantage and to build off its opening night win over the Wolves. DeMar DeRozan had 28 points in his first game for San Antonio, while LaMarcus Aldridge had 21 points and 19 boards. The Blazers got 24 points from guard Nick Stauskas off the bench in their win over the Lakers. Portland would go on to earn the victory despite being edged 34-12 in fast break points. I’ll point out though that San Antonio is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as an underdog, while Portland is just 17-23 ATS in its last 40 after allowing 115 points or more. This one has the feel of whichever team that has its hands on the ball last is going to be the one to come out on top. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
10-19-18 | Warriors v. Jazz +2.5 | Top | 124-123 | Win | 100 | 28 h 5 m | Show |
The third pick of my STP is on Utah Jazz 10* (10:35 EST). Both teams won their openers. Golden State beat OKC 108-100 at home (without Russell Westbrook in the line-up), but it certainly wasn’t pretty, committing 21 turnover and shooting only 26.9 percent from three-point range. Stephen Curry was a bright spot in the win with 32 points, nine assists and eight boards. Utah enters off a 123-117 win over the Kings on Wednesday. Donovan Mitchell and Joe Ingles would go 7 of 16 from three-point land and big man Rudy Gobert was 7 of 9 shooting with 15 boards and three blocks. I’ll point out though that Golden State is a poor 16-21 ATS in its last 37 when playing with two days rest, while Utah is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after allowing 115 points or more. I look for Utah to return to form on the defensive side this evening. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
10-17-18 | Pelicans v. Rockets -7.5 | Top | 131-112 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Houston Rockets (8:05 EST). New Orleans will once again be in the thick of things when the playoffs roll around. Anthony Davis is an MVP candidate and he’s supported by Jrue Holiday and now Julius Randle. I’ll point out though that the Pelicans have lost each of their last three regular season openers. Houston has improved its overall win total in each of the last three years. A trip to the NBA Finals likely would have happened last season if point guard Chris Paul hadn’t have gone down, but he’s back and healthy and ready to go. The team only got deeper with the addition of Carmelo Anthony as well. I’ll point out as well though that New Orleans is just 2-5 ATS inits last seven in its last seven in Houston. I think the Rockets send a message to the rest of the league with a decisive lop-sided blowout on Opening Night. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
06-08-18 | Warriors v. Cavs +6 | Top | 108-85 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (9:05 EST). The Golden State Warriors head into Game 4 of the NBA Finals sitting at 72-29 overall this year, while the Cleveland Cavaliers are 62-40. I had a play on Cleveland in Game 3 and it would unfortunately come up “just short.” With their backs against the wall and desperate to avoid the embarrassing sweep, I look for the Cavs to at the very least keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door with what I believe to be a very healthy spread afforded to them in this “do or die” situation. What more can be said about these teams which literally hasn’t been said about a million times at this point by every sports broadcaster, handicapper or “couch surfer” over the last four years. This is the fourth straight year that these teams have met in the Finals, and while the cast of characters remains the same for the Warriors (for the most part), as LBJ goes, so goes Cleveland. Suffice it to say, the strengths and weaknesses of these teams/players is well known to even the most casual basketball fan. And so for this selection, I won’t bother breaking down individual player match ups, or re-cap the numbers/stats that the star players from each side posted in Game 3. Instead I’m focusing on the overall “situation” and some strong ATS trends that completely support this selection. It’s hard to imagine the Warriors having a “letdown” at this point of the whole thing, but there is absolutely no question whatsoever that this does indeed set up as a classic “letdown” spot for the visitors. With the knowledge that they’ll be able to “easily” wrap this one up at home in Game 5, I predict this “mental lapse” will in fact occur. The Warriors are an amazing team there is no doubt, and this is just a horrible “matchup” for James and the Cavaliers. But I think the stage is set for an upset here. (Additional supporting ATS stats added shortly) While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, everything finally points to a “nail-biter” in Game 4. Grab the points, play on Cleveland. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
06-06-18 | Warriors v. Cavs +5 | Top | 110-102 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (9:05 EST). I had a play on Golden State in Game 1 and then I decided to skip Game 2. However Game 3 sets up perfectly for the Cavaliers, who I believe will finally get over the hump and at the very least, earn the ATS cover with the handful of points they’ve been afforded. Obviously this series could easily be tied at 1-1 if the Cavs’ JR Smith didn’t have a brain-lapse at the end of Game 1. Golden State was fortunate to earn the extra period and then LeBron James would run out of gas at the end. It was reported after that loss that the Cavaliers locker room took the setback incredibly hard. And that was evident in Game 2, as Golden State took control of the pace early and then never looked back. James posted a triple-double, but it wasn’t enough as the rest of his team struggled with consistency. However the Cavaliers are not out of it yet. Cleveland went down 2-0 to Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals, before then rebounding in a big way in Game’s 3 and 4 at home. And I’m now banking on that same “magic” working for the Cavaliers here with their backs against the wall. Stephen Curry set an all time NBA Finals record with nine 3-pointers in Game 2 and clearly the defending champs have to be feeling pretty good about themselves. But Golden State has looked susceptible this post-season, as Houston pushed the Warriors to the brink in the Western Conference Finals. I think a letdown is imminent for Golden State here. I’ll point out as well that Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last six after back-to-back SU/ATS losses, while Golden State is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine after scoring 120 points or more in its previous contest. In conclusion: Only 20 teams have ever recovered from an 0-2 deficit in the playoffs to win a series but an LBJ-led team has been responsible for three of those comebacks. The latest came in the Eastern Conference Finals of 2018 against Boston, when the Celtics won the first two games at TD Garden but James and the Cavaliers took the series in seven, winning Game 6 at home and then Game in 7 in Boston. All know that the Cavs and Warriors are meeting in a fourth straight NBA Finals and Cleveland is set to host its fourth Game 3 in that span. After splitting two OT games in 2015, the Cavs won Game 3 by a 96-91 score, but then lost three in a row. The following year, trailing 0-2, the Cavaliers hammered the Warriors by 30 ponts in Game 3 and eventually won the series for their first championship, rebounding from a 3-1 deficit. Last June, the Cavaliers were on the verge of winning another Game 3 but blew a six-point lead over the final 3:09 and lost, 118-113. So here we sit, with the Cavs down 0-2 for a third straight year. Iquodala (knee) has been upgraded to questionable for Game 3 but he hasn't played since Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals and it seems like stretch to think that he'll play a significant role. Shaun Livingston made his five field-goal tries for 10 points to give Golden State a lift in the first half of Game 2, after making all four of his shots Thursday. JaVale McGee scored 12 points, making all six of his shots in his first career NBA Finals start in Game 2 as Kerr made a lineup switch that proved spot on. He is 8-of-9 shooting so far. Think those two will shoot that well here in Cleveland? Golden State's "Core Four" is devastating but not unbeatable. For Cleveland, if not now, when? Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
05-31-18 | Cavs v. Warriors -11.5 | Top | 114-124 | Loss | -109 | 68 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Golden State Warriors (9:00 EST). The Cavaliers have LeBron James, but not much else. The King has already lost to the Warriors in two of three Final appearances and while he may be able to pull off another upset overall in this series, I don’t think the Warriors will stumble at home in Game 1. James has already gone on record as saying that he normally uses Game 1 of a series as a “feeler.” The Cavaliers are horrible defensively, especially around the perimeter. Golden State looks more susceptible than it’s ever been, but this is a horrible matchup for James and company. Give the Warriors’ defense credit as well in Game 7 and throughout the series with high-scoring Rockets. The cast of characters from both teams is well known to even the most casual basketball fan (and that includes both their strength’s and weaknesses), so I’m not going to bother breaking down any individual player match ups here. I will point out though that the Cavs are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight overall in this series, while the Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last five at home in this series. Also note that home teams in Game 1 of the NBA Finals are 17-3 SU over the last 20 years and over the last 15, have gone 13-2 SU/ATS. Golden State won both regular season meetings against the Cavs, albeit before Cleveland overhauled its lineup at the end of the year. To this point LBJ has been able to carry his team in the postseason. However, James now faces the most “complete” team in the entire league. In my opinion, everything points to a major ATS “b-l-o-w-o-u-t” for the home side in Game 1. Lay the points, play on the Warriors. Good luck..Larry |
|||||||
05-28-18 | Warriors v. Rockets +6.5 | Top | 101-92 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* WCF Game 7 WINNER is on the Houston Rockets (9:05 EST). I had a play on the Warriors in Game 6, but I think the Rockets will at the very least take Game 7 right down to the wire as these two hungry teams battle for a right to play for the NBA Championship. Whether Chris Paul plays or not, I think Houston has a legitimate shot at taking this one outright. So am I suggesting to “sprinkle a little on the money line?” I am in fact. However, the sharp play here is the points in my opinion. The Rockets will be doubling down defensively this evening as they look to duplicate their Game 4 and 5 success. The Warriors were able to take care of business on their own floor in Game 6, but Golden State has shown many “cracks in the armor” this season and everything points to another possible letdown here as well. Golden State is shooting 47.1 percent from the floor in the playoffs, including just 34.7 percent from range. Klay Thompson exploded for his best effort in the postseason in Game 6 with 35 points. Houston is averaging 43.8 percent in the postseason, including just 35 percent from long-distance. James Harden was a bright spot in a losing cause last time out with 32 points, seven boards and nine assists. I’ll point out though that from a trend based stand point, there’s no question that this one favors the home side, as note that Golden State is just 18-25 ATS this year after scoring 115 points or more, while Houston is 9-6 ATS this season after allowing 115 points or more. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Rockets. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
05-27-18 | Cavs +2.5 v. Celtics | Top | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 37 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* ECF GAME 7 WINNER is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (8:35 EST). I played on the Cavs in their Game 5 loss in Boston and then I came back with them again in Game 6. While recent history would suggest that the Celtics should be the savvy call here (note that the home team has both won and covered in every game in this series thus far,) I’m expecting history to be re-written tonight, as LeBron James will look to cement his place as the greatest player in the history of the game. James was unstoppable in Game 6, posting 46 points, 11 rebounds and nine assists. Kevin Love was lost early in the first quarter, but it wouldn’t matter as James completely took over and the rest of his teammates provided the rest. The Celtics have been an unbelievable story to this point, advancing to Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals without Kyrie Irving or Gordon Hayward, arguably their best players. Boston’s future is clearly bright. But LBJ is all about making and breaking history and trends and I simply can’t see “The King” losing against these young Celtics. (additional supporting ATS trends to be added shortly) My hat goes off to the Celtics. Bravo. But sorry guys, you’re in the path of a true juggernaut, a machine which will settle for nothing less than a trip to the NBA Finals. Grab the points, play on Cleveland. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
05-26-18 | Rockets v. Warriors -11.5 | Top | 86-115 | Win | 100 | 26 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Golden State Warriors (9:05 EST). With Chris Paul out for the Rockets, I expect the desperate Warriors to put the foot on the gas from start to finish in Game 6 and to finish with a similar result as to their Game 3, 41-point beatdown victory. So far Houston is shooting 44.4 percent from the floor in the playoffs, including only 34.7 percent from range. Paul had 20 points, seven boards and six assists in the Game 5 victory before then aggravating his ham-string, forcing the dynamic point guard to have to miss this crucial contest. Eric Gordon was another bright spot with 24 points off the bench. Golden State is shooting 46.9 percent from the floor in the playoffs and only 34.1 percent from range. Kevin Durant had 29 points in the latest setback, while Stephen Curry added 22. I’ll point out though that Golden State is 6-2 ATS in its last eight off an upset loss as a favorite, while Houston is just 1-2 ATS this year off an upset win as an underdog (and only 7-18 ATS in the same position over the last three seasons.) Houston has the momentum, but the loss of Paul is unbelievably significant. Golden State can smell the blood in the water and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a rout once the final horn sounds. Lay the points, play on the Warriors. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
05-25-18 | Celtics v. Cavs -7 | Top | 99-109 | Win | 100 | 38 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (8:35 EST). Most everyone that’s actually making a wager on the Cavaliers will be banking on the fact that the home side has completely dominated in every game of this series thus far. For whatever reason the Cavs’ role players and bench are unable to perform on the road, while it would seem none of the Celtics are able to perform at a high level and get over the hump away from friendly confines either. And I do indeed believe we’ll see this trend carry over again here. LeBron James was reportedly “dead tired” after Game 6, something that “The King” would take as an offense. James is arguably playing the best basketball of his entire 15 year career right now and I think he’s going to put on a classic performance in this one, attacking early and often and throughout. When they were up 2-0 and heading to Cleveland, it set up as a natural letdown spot for the Celtics in Game 3. And so too does it now in Game 6, as Boston will collectively have it in the back of its mind that it will still have one last chance to clinch the series in front of the home town crowd, a place which to this point in the playoffs has pretty much been “automatic” for it. I’ll point out as well that Boston is just 1-4 ATS in its last five road games overall, while Cleveland is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games against a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. I base my picks on many different things. This particular one doesn’t have anything to do with individual player match ups. For all the reasons listed above though, lay the points with confidence. Play on the Cavaliers. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
05-22-18 | Rockets +9 v. Warriors | Top | 95-92 | Win | 100 | 46 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Houston Rockets (9:05 EST). Golden State took Game 1, but Houston answered in Game 2 with a resounding victory. The Rockets though were once again grounded in Game 3, looking more like a deer caught in the headlights than a basketball team. But with that awkward contest out of the way, I believe the “real” Rockets show up for Game 4 as they try to avoid the dreaded 3-1 hole. Houston took two of three games in the regular season series from the Warriors, including the teams’ respective very first contests of the year (in Golden State.) The Warriors’ played much more aggressively in Game 3 and they were able to slow down the Rockets’ role players. But Houston is very well coached and I expect it to make the necessary adjustments to keep Game 4 much more competitive. It’s safe to say that Houston will be pushing the pace of this one in an attempt to combat Golden State’s more aggressive style. I think it’ll be successful in doing just that. Boston looked unstoppable over the first two games of its series at home, before then coming out and laying an egg in Game 3 in Cleveland and there’s no question that there are parallels between the East/West Conference Finals. As mentioned above, the playoffs are all about “adjustments” and there’s no reason not to think that the West leading Rockets won’t be able to come up with a much more effective game-plan in this one. And I’m absolutely banking on that happening. Outright victory? It’s possible. But in a contest which I envision being decided late, in extra time, or by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I’m grabbing as many points as I can. Play on the Rockets. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
05-16-18 | Warriors v. Rockets -1 | Top | 105-127 | Win | 100 | 25 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Houston Rockets (9:05 EST). I had a play on the Rockets in Game 1 and while the selection came up short in the end, I believe that Houston will rally and find a way to bounce back in Game 2. Note that Houston did take two of three between the clubs in the regular season. So far Golden State is shooting 47.4 percent from the floor in the playoffs this year, including just 33.5 percent from range. Kevin Durant came up big in the Game 1 victory with 37 points, while Klay Thompson would add 28. Draymond Green had just five points, but he posted nine boards, nine assists, two steals and two blocks. The Rockets are hitting 44.7 percent from the floor, including 35.3 percent from range. James Harden was a bright spot in a losing cause last time out with 41 points and seven assists, while Chris Paul would add 23 points and 11 boards. I’ll point out though that Golden State is still just 6-19-1 ATS in its last 26 following a SU victory over more than ten points, while Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last six after allowing 100 or more points in its previous outing. This is one of the biggest games in franchise history and I expect Houston to respond in a big way. Everything points to a blowout here, play on the Rockets. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
05-15-18 | Cavs +1 v. Celtics | Top | 94-107 | Loss | -108 | 35 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (8:35 EST). LBJ entered Game 1 of the Eastern Conference LBJ seeking his eighth straight trip to the NBA Finals, after the Cavs swept the Raptors for a second straight postseason. "The King" dominated in Cleveland first two series, averaging 34.3 points, 9.4 rebounds and 9.0 assists, while nailing a pair of buzzer-beaters to boot. Giving him some important cover in the Toronto series was the team's second-best player, Kevin Love. After averaging 10.9 points on 31.9 percent shooting in his first eight contests this postseason, Love scored at least 21 points in each of the final three games of that series, averaging 25.0 & 11.0 in those three. Love averaged 22.6 points and 12.4 rebounds in last season's conference finals against Boston, adding to Cleveland's confidence. heading into this series. What's more, Cleveland's supporting cast, a three-guard lineup featuring Hill, Korber and Smith, looked very mediocre against the Pacers but looked ready for primetime vs. the Raptors. So what happened in Game 1? LBJ played his worst game of the 2018 playoffs, scoring just 15 points on 5 of 16 shooting (0-5 on threes). Also, Love resorted to his early playoff form, making just 5 of 14 shots with 17 points. As for that three-guard lineup of Hill, Korver and Smith, that trio shot 6 of 19 from the floor while combining for a total of only 14 points. The Cavs shot just 36.0 per overall, including a just brutal 4 of 26 (15.4%) on threes. Meanwhile, the Celtics connected on 51.2% as a team, with a trio of players (Brown, Morris and Horford) scoring 20-plus points. Knowing that the Celtics are 37-0 all-time when taking a 2-0 series lead, it may be more than fair to call Game 2 a "must-win" for the Cavs. Cleveland won three games at Boston by an average of 30 points in last season's conference finals plus has gone 9-3 at Boston the last four regular seasons. With so much on the line, I expect “The King” to bounce back with another signature effort. Play on Cleveland. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
05-14-18 | Warriors v. Rockets -1 | Top | 119-106 | Loss | -105 | 99 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Houston Rockets (9:00 EST). Simply put, I don’t think that the home court advantage can be overlooked as a very real factor in this one (in Game 1 anyways!) Golden State knocked out both the Spurs and Pelicans in five games, while Houston would get past both the Wolves and Jazz in five as well. Note that the Rockets would take two of three in the regular season. Golden State is shooting 46.9 percent from the floor in the playoffs this year, including only 32.9 percent from range. Stephen Curry had 28 points, seven boards and eight assists in the Game 5 win over New Orleans. Houston is hitting 44.6 percent from the floor in the postseason, including 35.3 percent form range. Chris Paul had 41 points, seven boards and ten assists in the Game 5 victory over Utah. Both teams are healthy, but Paul, James Harden and the Rockets have been waiting all season for this moment and I believe they’ll ride the incredible wave of emotion to a solid victory in Game 1. Lay the points, play on the Rockets. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
05-13-18 | Cavs -1 v. Celtics | Top | 83-108 | Loss | -105 | 70 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (3:30 EST). Cleveland has advanced by dispatching the Pacers in seven games, while then going on to sweep No. 1 seed Toronto in four straight. Boston got to this point by defeating Milwaukee in seven and then Philadelphia in five. Note that the Cavs took two of three in the regular season. Cleveland smashed Toronto 128-93 in Game 4 and I think it carries that confidence and momentum over here. It’s interesting to note that Celtics’ big man Al Horford, who to this point has been a difference maker for his team, is just 1-15 lifetime against LeBron James’ led teams in the postseason. After struggling in the first round, the Cavs’ bench players and other starters looked “in sync” against the Raptors and there’s no reason not to think that that chemistry won’t also be carried over here. Chemistry is what the Celtics are all about, as this is a team that is playing and winning right now without its legitimate super star in Kyrie Irving. Like Cleveland though, Boston has struggled at times in the playoffs on the offensive end, so far shooting 44.6 percent from the floor and 36 percent from range. Horford, Jaylen Brown, Terry Rozier and Jayson Tatum have played “above” their heads to this point and I think they’ll finally stumble against a rejuvenated “King” and company (at least in Game 1 anyways!) I will be the first to admit that I have been very surprised at how well the Celtics have played to this point, but until they can prove to me that they can slow down James, who enters on perhaps the biggest/strongest run of his career, the correct call in this one is on Cleveland. Good luck..Larry |
|||||||
05-09-18 | 76ers v. Celtics | Top | 112-114 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Philadelphia 76ers (8:00 EST). My most recent 10* 34-Club Play release came on the 76ers in Game 4 and suffice it to say with their backs once again “against the wall,” I’m expecting the visiting side to find a way to take this one back home for a Game 6. Philadelphia finally got into the win column in Game 4’s 103-92 victory. Ben Simmons had 19 points and 13 boards, while TJ McConnell added 19. Big man Joel Embiid had 19 points and 13 boards. Boston ran out of gas in Game 4 and everything points to another letdown here in my opinion. The Celtics have so far shot just 44.6 percent from the floor. After a gruelling seven game series win over the Bucks and three straight victories over the 76ers, I think the writing is on the wall for the exhausted home side. I’ll point out that Philadelphia is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 following an ATS victory. I think the 76ers have the momentum now and I look for them to push Boston to the brink with another big effort. Play on Philadelphia. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
05-08-18 | Pelicans +11.5 v. Warriors | Top | 104-113 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New Orleans Pelicans (10:35 EST). I’ve played on New Orleans through each of the first four games of this series and I’m just 1-3. But with their backs against the wall, I expect the desperate Pelicans to at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final moments. So far New Orleans is hitting 47.9 percent from the floor, while shooting 36.1 percent from range. Big man Anthony Davis was a bright spot in a losing cause last time out with 26 points and 12 boards, while E’Twaun Moore added 20. The Warriors can smell the Western Conference Finals, but I think they’ll come in a tiny bit complacent here. Golden State is so far hitting 46.7 percent from the floor, and only 33.6 percent from range. Kevin Durant came up huge last time out with 38 points, nine boards and four steals. Draymond Green was another bright spot with eight boards, nine boards and nine assists. I’ll point out though that the Pelicans are still 6-1 ATS in their last seven on the road, while the Warriors are just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 after a SU victory and only 4-13 ATS in their last 17 when playing on one days rest. Desperation breeds motivation and winning unquestionably can lead to complacency. I’m banking on the desperate visitors at the very least keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I believe to be an ample amount of points afforded to them. Play on New Orleans. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
05-07-18 | Celtics v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 92-103 | Win | 100 | 33 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* 34-CLUB PLAY is on the Philadelphia 76ers (6:05 EST). It’s the biggest game of the year for the 76ers. Philadelphia is in an 0-3 hole and it’ll be playing for pride today as it desperately tries to avoid the sweep. I’ll be the first to admit that I’ve been wrong about this Boston team up until now. The Celtics are playing at an extremely high level, helped by the brilliance of head coach Brad Stevens. But in my opinion, a letdown is imminent here. The Celtics edged Philly 101-98 in Game 3, as the Sixers not only shot just 39.2% for the game but also just 30% on threes (9-of-30). What's more, the Sixers were just plain sloppy down the stretch. However, don't expect this up and coming young team to go quietly in Game 4. Let's not forget that Boston lost all three games at Milwaukee in the first round, getting blown out in two of them (by 24 and 16 points) plus the Celtics lone cover came in a game in which they once trailed by 28 points! Yes, the 76ers are just 2-2 SU & ATS this postseason at home but they finished the regular season on a 21-1 SU run at home, going 17-5 ATS. This one has complete blowout written all over it. Boston takes the night off and then tries to wrap this one up at home. Lay the points, play on the 76ers. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
05-05-18 | Raptors +4.5 v. Cavs | Top | 103-105 | Win | 100 | 46 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Toronto Raptors (8:30 EST). To say I’m surprised by the energy levels of LeBron James and the Cavs after their gruelling seven game series win over the Pacers would be an understatement. James is putting up historic numbers over the first two games of this series and now Toronto finds itself in a disastrous 2-0 hole. All the hard work that the Raptors put in to gain home court advantage in the playoffs over the regular season has been completely wasted. Toronto has had little success on the road in the playoffs and even less when facing a James led team. But with all of that said, I do now firmly believe that the Raptors will put together their most complete game in this series and while an outright win is obviously not out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Kyle Lowry was a bright spot in the losing cause in Game 2 for Toronto and so far he’s averaging a solid 17.8 PPG. DeMar DeRozan struggled though with 24 points on 11 of 23 shooting, including going 0 for 5 from range. Suffice it to say, I think DeRozan is poised for a breakout performance in this series. James was unstoppable in Game 2, but he looked very pedestrian at times during the win over Indiana in the first round. Toronto only gave up an average of 103 PPG during the regular season and it goes without saying that I’m expecting the visitors to do a much better job defending The King this time around. I’ll point out as well that Toronto is 9-6 ATS as an underdog this season, while Cleveland is just 20-47 ATS as the fav (and just 13-31 ATS at home.) For all the reasons listed above, play on the Raptors. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
05-04-18 | Warriors v. Pelicans +4.5 | Top | 100-119 | Win | 100 | 37 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the New Orleans Pelicans (8:05 EST). It’s the Pelicans biggest game of the year (until Game 4 of course), but an 0-3 hole would almost assuredly be too much for New Orleans to overcome against the Warriors. With the home side risking life and limb to get back into this series, I expect the Pelicans to at the very least keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door. Note that on April 7th, the Pelicans beat Golden State in New Orleans 126-120. Kevin Durant has so far led the way for the Warriors in the Playoffs and he had 29 points in the Game 2 victory. Stephen Curry will be in the starting line-up tonight for the visitors, but I still don’t think it’ll be enough against this desperate home side. New Orleans is shooting well in the postseason at 49.4 percent, including 37.7 percent from range. Anthony Davis was a bright spot in a losing cause last time out with 25 points, 15 boards, five assists, two steals and three blocks, while Jrue Holiday added 24 points, eight boards and eight assists. I’ll point out as well that Golden State is a poor 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, while the Pelicans are 4-0 ATS in their last four at home. In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I’m grabbing the points. Play on New Orleans Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
05-03-18 | Cavs v. Raptors -6.5 | Top | 128-110 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the Toronto Raptors (6:05 EST). Cleveland has knocked Toronto out of the playoffs each of the last two seasons. The Cavs two took two of three regular season meetings, but after an epic seven game series win against the Pacers in round 1, Cleveland looked poised for a letdown against revenge-minded Toronto in Game 1 of this second round series. That wasn’t the case though as Cleveland would hold on for the two point OT win. The Cavs shot just 43.1 percent from the floor against Indiana, including only 33.2 percent from range. Cleveland was led by LeBron James in Game 1 with 26 points, 11 boards and 13 assists. Kevin Love though struggled again, finishing with seven points and 13 boards. Despite the Game 1 setback, the Raptors are shooting the ball well overall in the postseason at 46.6 percent, while going 39.7 percent from range. DeMar DeRozan led the way with 22 points in a losing cause in Game 1. Big man Jonas Valanciunas posted 21 points and 21 boards. Note that Fred Van Fleet missed a potential game winner in the final seconds of OT. I’ll point out as well that the Cavs are just 1-4 ATS in their last five after allowing 100 points or more and just 1-4 ATS in their last five following a SU win, while the Raptors are still 5-1 ATS in their last six at home and 5-2 ATS in their last seven following an ATS loss. The Cavs accomplished what they wanted in Toronto, winning at least one of the two games. I believe fatigue does finally play a big factor for Cleveland tonight, which I expect to fold up its tents early under the intensity in which the Raptors play with tonight. The desperate Raptors pull away for the comfortable cover once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
05-02-18 | Jazz +11.5 v. Rockets | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 60 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the Utah Jazz (8:00 EST). I had a play on Utah in Game 1 and while that play came up short, I expect the Jazz to respond in Game 2. Admittedly the Rockets are most likely better than Oklahoma City, but we all remembered what happened to Utah its Game 1 matchup with the Thunder in the Opening Round. The Jazz laid an egg, but then promptly turned around and dominated in the Game 2 victory and then going on to take the series in six. Utah will be leaving everything it has on the floor tonight as it tries to avoid the 0-2 hole. Utah shot 50 percent in Game 1, but its defense faltered. The Jazz sport the No. 2 defense in the league and suffice it to say, I believe Rudy Gobert and company bounce back in a big way tonight. Houston went 3-0 in the first round at home against the Wolves, but it shot just 45.1 percent in Game 1. The Rockets got a super human performance from James Harden, who finished with 41 points, eight boards and seven assists. I’ll point out though that the Jazz are still 16-7 ATS in their last 23 against good offensive teams which average 106 plus points per contest and 3-2 ATS in its last five when trailing in a playoff series. It’s hard to say too many negative things against the high-flying Rockets, but note that they’re just 20-21 this year following a victory by ten points or more. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Jazz. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
04-29-18 | Jazz +11 v. Rockets | Top | 96-110 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Utah Jazz (3:35 EST). Am I suggesting to you that you should “sprinkle” a little on the money line? I am not. I simply feel that the league’s No. 1 defense is going to keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are tying to lead us to believe (in Game 1 anyways.) Houston advanced by taking out Minnesota in five games, but now James Harden and company have to contend with Defensive Player of the Year candidate Rudy Gobert. Utah was ranked second in the NBA in defensive efficiency at 101.6 points per 100 possessions. Utah will be especially motivated here as well after the Rockets swept the season series. It’s a classic battle of strength vs. strength, with Houston leading the league in most offensive categories. The Jazz though behind Donovan Mitchell have found their stride offensively in the playoffs. The temporary loss of Ricky Rubio is significant, but more over the long-term in my opinion. I’ll point out as well that Utah is 26-19 ATS this year against good offensive teams which score 106 plus points per contest, while Houston is just 19-21 ATS this season after a win by ten points or more. The Rockets were the cream of the crop all year, but the Jazz went 30-5 when Gobert returned in late December. As mentioned off the top, I’m not calling for the outright upset, but everything points to a much closer than expected battle. Grab the points, play on the Jazz. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
04-28-18 | Pelicans +8.5 v. Warriors | Top | 101-123 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* ROUND 2 GAME OF THE YEAR is on the New Orleans Pelicans (10:35 EST). The 48-34 New Orleans Pelicans are at Golden State to take on the 58-24 Warriors in Game 1 of their second round series and while I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I believe the visitors will keep this one competitive until the final moments. New Orleans swept Portland and it comes in averaging 114.5 PPG, while conceding 105.5 in the playoffs. Anthony Davis has been unstoppable to this point and I have a hard time seeing the bigs in Golden State doing much either. Davis is averaging 33 points and 11.8 boards per night. The Warriors are also going to have their hands full with Jrue Holiday, who is averaging 27.8 points and 6.5 assists. You’ll also want to keep your eyes on Nikola Mirotic, who is averaging double figures, and guard Rajon Rondo is surging right now as well, averaging 13.3 assists. Note that New Orleans has won five straight on the road. Golden State comes in averaging 105.6 PPG and allowing 96.8 after dispatching the Spurs in five games. Kevin Durant is leading the charge with Stephen Curry sidelined with injury with 28.2 points and 8.6 boards, while Klay Thompson averaged 22.6 points and 2.8 assists. Note that the Warriors have split their last eight in front of the home town crowd. I’ll point out as well that New Orleans has been money in the bank all season for bettors in this spot, going 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring 130 points or more in its previous contest and 16-10 ATS against clubs which allow 106 plus points per contest. Conversely this is a position in which the Warriors have struggled mightily in, going just 17-25 ATS at home this season and only 9-10 ATS in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. Whether Curry plays or not, I still love the Pelicans here. Curry will have some rust if he does come back and I don’t think that the defending champs have an answer for Davis, who could be poised for super star status if he’s able to take over this series and somehow manage another upset. Regardless, the stage is set for a competitive back and forth battle in Game 1. Grab the points, play on the Pelicans. Good luck…Larry |