My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over Arizona at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.

The Cardinals have been front-running throughout the majority of their first three games this season, unbelievably so. We haven't really seen how they operate when playing from behind but we're likely to see that on Sunday in Santa Clara and the results likely won't be pretty. We haven't seen the 49ers as healthy as they've been this season in a long time. The results have been staggering as they've outscored the opposition by a combined 90-42 margin through their first three contests. While this pointspread may seem lofty at first glance, keep in mind, the Niners have gone an incredible 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 16.6 points in that situation. Last year this matchup was no contest with San Francisco winning by 28 and 25 points. Take San Francisco (8*).

Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday.

I think both of these defenses are being lumped into the 'bad' category three games into the season but I'm not sure it's warranted. The Broncos got schooled by the Dolphins explosive offense last Sunday, allowing a ridiculous 70 points in a 50-point defeat. Meanwhile, the Bears gave up 41 points on the road against the Chiefs. Here, both defenses catch a break as we're talking about two of the slowest and most punchless offenses in the entire league. Broncos head coach Sean Payton clearly isn't comfortable dialing up many aggressive plays down the field for QB Russell Wilson. The same goes for the Bears with QB Justin Fields as they continue to waste his talent with tentative play-calling. I can't help but feel we're in for a game where the two offenses move up and down the field but accomplish very little on the scoreboard Sunday afternoon. Keep in mind, the last three meetings in this series have produced 23, 32 and 30 total points. The 'under' is a long-term 41-16 with the Bears playing at home as an underdog of three points or less, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 37.2 points scored in that situation. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

Everyone is down on the Raiders right now. Perhaps for good reason. With that being said, I'm not ready to buy in to the Chargers, not after they earned just their first win in three tries this season last week in Minnesota. Las Vegas won't have the services of QB Jimmy Garoppolo for this game. Are Brian Hoyer or Aidan O'Connell really a considerable downgrade? This game should be all about pounding away with RB Josh Jacobs anyway (the Chargers are giving up 4.4 yards per rush), perhaps with some splash plays mixed in to WR Davante Adams. The Chargers lost WR Mike Williams in last week's victory in Minnesota and will likely be without RB Austin Ekeler once again here as well. Of course those injuries have been factored into this line. However, I think the Raiders are being knocked for being away from home, yet they have little to no home field advantage to begin with (nor do the Chargers). Note that Los Angeles has averaged a woeful 18.6 points and has been outscored by an average margin of 3.8 points when coming off a win by six points or less over the last 2+ seasons (that situation has come up 12 times over that stretch). The Chargers will be looking for revenge here after dropping the most recent meeting between these two teams last December but I think that angle is overplayed in this particular matchup. The last seven times Los Angeles has sought revenge in this series it has lost by three, lost by three, lost by three, won by one, lost by seven, lost by five and won by five. Take Las Vegas (8*).

Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday.

While the Texans were impressive in last Sunday's rout of the Jaguars in Jacksonville, I'm not ready to buy into them just yet. The Steelers have their flaws to be sure, but have a terrific opportunity to move to 3-1 on the campaign before the schedule toughens up with a home date with the Ravens next week. I like the matchup here with Pittsburgh's vaunted pass rush going up against a makeshift Texans offensive line. I see this as a 'back to Earth' game for Houston rookie QB C.J. Stroud. On the flip side, the Steelers offense remains a work-in-progress to be sure, but I think offensive coordinator Matt Canada's oft-conservative gameplan works alright in this particular matchup. Houston remains without two of its top pass defenders in Derek Stingley Jr. and Tavierre Thomas. Regardless, the Steelers figure to use their ground attack and short passing game to ultimately wear down the Texans defense and secure a hard-fought road win. Take Pittsburgh.

AFC North Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore plus the points over Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Ravens are coming off an embarrassing showing at home against the Colts last Sunday. The sky is not falling in Baltimore though as the Ravens remain 2-1 to start the season, good enough for a tie for top spot in the AFC North. Here, Baltimore has an opportunity to make a statement on the road against a Browns squad that is off to a perfect 2-0 start at home. The Ravens last played here last December and were unable to complete the season sweep, dropping an ugly 13-3 decision. It's worth noting that Cleveland hasn't won consecutive matchups in this series since way back in 2007. I like the notion of Todd Monken drawing up a far more effective offensive gameplan for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens after last week's debacle against the Colts. He'll certainly need to do that given how stout the Browns have been on defense so far this season. I'm not particularly high on Cleveland's offense, certainly without RB Nick Chubb. Chubb's absence wasn't really felt last Sunday as the Browns were able to control proceedings from the get-go against the Titans. This week, Chubb will be missed. Note that the Ravens have held up tremendously well in pass defense this season, allowing just 4.7 yards per pass attempt. Needless to say, Deshaun Watson doesn't instill a great deal of confidence as a passer right now. The Ravens check in a long-term 36-18 ATS as a road underdog of a field goal or less, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.9 points along the way while the Browns are a miserable 12-28 ATS in their last 40 games after a win by 14+ points, outscored by 6.5 points on average in that spot. Take Baltimore (10*).

My selection is on Jacksonville minus the points over Atlanta at 9:30 am et on Sunday.

The Jaguars got stomped at home against the Texans last Sunday. I'm not sure that result was as unexpected as most believe as Houston has owned that series and the Jags have traditionally struggled in the role of home favorite. Here, I look for Jacksonville to bounce back as it faces Atlanta in London. The Falcons stumbled to their first loss of the young season in Detroit last Sunday as they couldn't get anything going offensively. I'm not convinced Atlanta QB Desmond Ridder is long for the starting job and the Lions laid out a pretty good blueprint for shutting down the Falcons offense - one that the Jags are capable of replicating on Sunday. Jacksonville's offense is far better than it showed last Sunday. Keep in mind, even on a bad day it still racked up over 400 total yards with two turnovers playing a factor. The game has come easy for Falcons rookie RB Bijan Robinson so far but he'll run into a Jags defense that has yielded just 3.4 yards per rush this season. While motivation rarely plays a quantifiable role in the end result when it comes to the NFL, the Jags can ill afford to drop another game here, noting that they'll face the Bills next. Atlanta gets three straight winnable games next, hosting Houston and Washington before travelling to face Tampa Bay. Take Jacksonville (8*).