15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Arkansas -7

Memphis is overvalued after a 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start this season against the 134th-ranked schedule in the country.  They beat FCS Chattanooga 45-10 as 30.5-point favorites.  That's the same Chattanooga team that went on to lose 45-17 to Tennessee Tech.

Memphis beat Georgia Tech 38-16 as 14.5-point road favorites in Week 2.  That's the same Georgia State team that lost 63-7 to Ole Miss, which is the same Ole Miss team that Arkansas nearly upset on the road last week.  And they beat Troy 28-7, which lost starting QB Goose Crowder on the opening drive to injury, and the drop off to the backup was enormous.  Kilcrease finished 10-of-29 for 65 yards and an INT in Crowder's place.

I can't say I'm 100% sure how good Memphis is, but I can say 100% sure they aren't as good as their record and margins of victory would indicate due to the circumstances and softness of their schedule.  I don't like Nevada transfer QB Brendon Lewis, who is a better runner than he is a thrower, which isn't what this Memphis offense is known for.  They are known for having great pocket passers through the years.

This might be Ryan Silverfield's worst team since going 7-6 in 2022.  They only brought back 9 starters this season and lost 14 of their top 15 tacklers on D, each of their top 4 receivers, and leading rusher Mario Anderson who has 1,362 yards and 18 TD last season.  Silverfield had to hit the transfer portal, and I'm just not high on all the replacements.

Arkansas has been impressive beating Alabama A&M 52-7 and Arkansas State 56-14, which is the same Arkansas State team that just took Iowa State to the wire last week.  The Razorbacks had Ole Miss on the ropes last week in a 41-35 road loss, and they outgained the Rebels 526 to 481 for the game.

The Razorbacks boast an explosive offense under 2nd-year coordinator Bobby Petrino, and I just don't think Memphis has the firepower to keep up.  QB Taylen Green is completing 68.5% of his passes for 866 yards and 11 TD, while also rushing for 307 yards and 2 TD making him one of the best dual-threat QB's in the country.  He will have a field day against this Memphis defense and Saturday to lead the Razorbacks to a win by more than a TD.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Syracuse +17.5

The books have Clemson power rated too highly after the Tigers came into the season as one of the top ranked teams in the country.  Even after a lackluster 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS start this season, the Tigers are still too big of favorites against Syracuse this week.

Clemson lost 17-10 outright as 5-point home favorites to LSU in Week 1.  They were held to 261 total yards and outgained by 93 yards.  They only beat Troy 27-16 at home as 30-point favorites and only outgained the Trojans by 15 yards.  And last week they lost 24-21 as 3-point favorites at Georgia Tech.  Their offense has been broken, and their defense isn't as good as it was expected to be.

Notre Dame transfer Steve Angeli leads a Syracuse offense that is putting up 39.7 points per game, 486.7 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play despite playing a pretty tough schedule that has included Tennessee and UConn.  He is completing 64% of his passes for 1,108 yards with 8 TD in three games thus far.  Syracuse is playing at the 5th-fastest tempo in the country snapping the ball every 20.9 seconds.

The 19-point loss to Tennessee in the opener doesn't look too bad now when you consider Tennessee should have beaten Georgia last week.  I have Tennessee power-rated a lot higher than Clemson right now.  They responded with a 27-20 wi over UConn and a 66-24 beat down of Colgate.  They should still be fresh for this game against Clemson after that blowout of Colgate last week.

I like Syracuse head coach Fran Brown.  He guided Syracuse to a 10-3 season in his first year on the job last year.  He is doing a tremendous job of recruiting and getting the most out of his players.  I trust that he'll have the answer for Clemson, and least the offense should be able to match the Tigers score for score in this one to stay within the 17.5-point spread.  Speaking of that spread, Brown referred to it in the media and will have his players motivated knowing they are this big of underdogs.  Bet Syracuse Saturday.

20* Texas Tech/Utah FOX No-Brainer on Utah -3

Texas Tech received a lot of hype in the offseason with how much money they spent in the transfer portal.  While there's no question they upgraded their talent, I think the hype is too much after three blowouts against the softest schedule on the country.  The Red Raiders have played the 254th-ranked schedule of Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Kent State and Oregon State.

Utah did not get the hype that Texas Tech did this offseason, but they were the team deserving of it.  The Utes were picked by the majority to win the Big 12 last season.  They disappointed going 5-7, but they never had a QB as Cameron Rising couldn't stay healthy and derailed their season.

Now the Utes have one of their best QB's in program history in New Mexico transfer Devon Dampier, who threw for 2,768 yards and rushed for 1,166 yards and 19 TD last year for the Lobos.  Dampier is among 17 starters back for the Utes this season.

Utah has been dominant against a much tougher schedule than that of Texas Tech.  The Utes beat UCLA 43-10 as 6.5-point road favorites, beat Cal Poly 63-9 as 42.5-point home favorites and topped Wyoming 31-6 as 24-point road favorites.  Utah is averaging 517.3 yards per game and 6.5 per play on offense and allowing 224.3 yards per game and 4.1 per play on defense.

Dampier is a dark horse to win the Heisman Trophy this season.  He has thrown for 628 yards and 7 TD while also rushing for 198 yards and a score in three games despite the blowout nature of all three games.  The Utes have more ways to beat you offensively, and they have the better defense in this matchup.  They are better at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.

Texas Tech is a pass-happy offense that will struggle to run the football at times this season, and being one-dimensional isn't going to work.  The Red Raiders managed just 71 rushing yards on 38 carries against Oregon State last week, averaging just 1.9 yards per carry.  I expect this Utah defense to force a couple mistakes from Behren Morton and that to be a big difference in the game.  This is the ultimate step up in class on the road in a hostile environment for the Red Raiders, and I expect them to fall on their faces.  Bet Utah Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Syracuse/Clemson OVER 55

Syracuse is a dead nuts OVER team under head coach Fran Brown.  Syracuse and its opponents combined for 55 or more points in 10 of 13 games last season.  That was with Ohio State transfer Kyle McCord at QB after everyone left him for dead, and now Brown is working his magic again with Notre Dame transfer Steve Angeli this season.

Angeli leads a Syracuse offense that is putting up 39.7 points per game, 486.7 yards per game and 6.2 yards per play despite playing a pretty tough schedule that has included Tennessee and UConn.  He is completing 64% of his passes for 1,108 yards with 8 TD in three games thus far.  Syracuse is playing at the 5th-fastest tempo in the country snapping the ball every 20.9 seconds.

That leaves their soft defense a little exposed.  The Orange are allowing 29.7 points per game, 443 yard per game and 5.8 yards per play this season.  They will have a hard time getting stops consistently just as they did a year ago when they allowed 29.2 points per game.

Clemson is due for an offensive breakout to say the least.  The Tigers have played a brutal schedule of opposing defenses in LSU, Georgia Tech and Troy.  I would argue this Syracuse defense is worse than all three and it's not really close.  Cade Klubnik has been without LT Tristan Leigh and star WR Antonio Williams this season, but both are expected to make their debuts against Syracuse this week.

The books have set this total too low due to Clemson going under the total in three straight to start the season.  We'll take advantage and 'buy low' on a Clemson over here as they should get their offense cooking this week with Leigh and Williams back, and I think Syracuse can match them score for score in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Iowa/Rutgers Big Ten No-Brainer on OVER 45

Rutgers has turned into a dead nuts OVER team.  The Scarlet Knights are 10-1 OVER in their last 11 games overall with 45 or more combined points in all 11 games, making for a 10-0-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 45-point total.  They are combining with their opponents to average a whopping 64.1 points per game in those 11 games with 55 or more combined points in nine of them.  Simply put, this total of 45 is too low for a game involving Rutgers right now.

The Scarlet Knights have now scored at least 31 points in seven consecutive games dating back to last season.  That includes games against quality defenses in Kansas State, Michigan State and Illinois.  They went for 65 combined points with Ohio in a 34-31 win, 62 with Miami Ohio in a 45-17 win and 70 with Norfolk State in a 60-10 win to open this season.

The Sacarlet Knights are averaging 46.3 points per game, 461 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play thus far this season.  They have one of their best QB's in program history in Athan Kaliakmanis, who is completing 72.9% of his passes averaging 9.6 per attempt with a 7-to-0 TD/INT ratio.  The talent at the receiver position is elite too with Duff, Strong and Sheffield all having over 200 yards receiving each through three games.

But Rutgers is no longer an elite defensive team under Greg Schiano.  Despite the soft schedule, the Scarlet Knights are allowing 6.6 yards per play this season.  Ohio went up and down the field on them finishing with 440 total yards and easily could have pulled off the upset.

Iowa is trying to get more dynamic on offense this season.  The Hawkeyes finally have a QB upgrade in South Dakota State transfer Mark Gronowski, who threw for over 10,000 yards in his 55 starts for the Jack Rabbits.  It was going to take him some time to gel with his new teammates in a new system, but I think this is his breakout game after opening things up in a 47-7 win over UMass last week.

Iowa's defense really hasn't been tested yet.  Albany and UMass offered little, and Iowa State vs. Iowa is always a low-scoring rivalry game with how familiar these teams are with one another.  I think this Rutgers offense is the best that Iowa has faced this season and that will show.  But I think Gronowki and company can keep up in a shootout, which we don't need much of one with a total of just 45 points.  The atmosphere for this Friday night game will be a good one for offense, too, and the forecast looks perfect for a shootout with no wind and temps in the 70's.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Texas State +15

Arizona State is one of the most overrated teams in the country after a dream season last year that saw them win the Big 12 Championship and give Texas all they could handle in the 12-team playoff.  The Sun Devils pulled off the miracle, finishing 1st after being picked to finish last in the Big 12.  Now I think they will regress and finish middle of the pack this season.

While the Sun Devils return 17 starters and will be good again, they lose their heart and soul in RB Cam Skattebo, who put the team on his shoulders all season last year.  Skattebo rushed for 1,711 yards and 21 TD, while also catching 45 balls for 605 yards and three scores.  He made life much easier on QB Sam Leavitt, who will have to shoulder much more of the load this season and I don't think he's ready for it.

I faded Boise State with USF in a similar situation in a 34-7 loss to the Bulls as 6.5-point favorites.  They lost Ashton Jeanty and more is on Maddux Madsen this season, and he's not ready for it.  I don't think Leavitt is ready for it, either.  

The Sun Devils got off to an underwhelming start beating FCS Northern Arizona 38-19 as 29.5-point favorites and not even coming close to covering the spread.  They only had one more first down than Northern Arizona and only outgained them by 129 yards.

I released my 25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Mississippi State +7 against Arizona State last week.  The Bulldogs jumped out to a 17-0 lead and pulled off the outright upset, 24-21.  That was a 2-10 Mississippi State team last season.  The Bulldogs outgained the Sun Devils 5.4 to 4.5 yards per play.

Now I'm fading Arizona State again with an underrated Texas State team.  G.J. Kinne is doing big things in San Marcos guiding the Bobcats to back-to-back 8-5 seasons.  Now in his 3rd season, he has all the pieces in place to have another great year.  This team is underrated due to bringing back just five starters, but Kinne did great in the transfer portal finding replacements.

Texas State blasted Eastern Michigan 52-27 in the opener as 14-point favorites.  The Bobcats backed it up by upsetting UTSA 43-36 as 4.5-point road underdogs last week.  And now they have their sights set on revenge from a 31-28 home loss to Arizona State as 2.5-point dogs last season.  They outgained the Sun Devils by 53 yards in the loss to prove they could hang.  They also bottled Scattebo up as well as anyone, holding him to 62 rushing yards and 2 TD on 24 carries.

Arizona State is without RB Kyson Brown and WR Jalen Moss, which is a big reason Leavitt has struggled so much thus far.  Brown has 84 rushing yards and 72 receiving yards through two games.  Moss has been out for each of their first two games and remains doubtful for this one.  Texas State has playmakers all over the field and will keep coming, champing at the bit for some revenge in this one.  Bet Texas State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Akron/UAB OVER 55

UAB is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Blazers allowed 34.3 points per game last season.  They return just four starters on D and lose nine of their top 10 tacklers from a year ago.  They are going to be forced to try and win shootouts again this season, and that was on display in Week 1.

UAB beat Alabama State 52-42 as 21-point favorites with a total of just 53.5.  They sailed over that total by 40.5 points finishing with 94 combined points.  They gained 520 yards and 9.0 yards per play while allowing 514 yards and 7.9 per play.

UAB's offense took off once Jalen Kitna took over at QB for Jacob Zeno after a 41-18 loss to Navy.  The Blazers averaged 33.4 points per game over their final five games last season.  Kitna completed 62% of his passes for 2,209 yards and a 17-to-11 TD/INT ratio in eight starts last season.  He went 18-of-23 passing for 247 yards and 2 TD against Alabama State and is now comfortable in Trent Dilfer's system.

Last week, UAB lost 38-24 at Navy finishing with 62 combined points and going OVER the 59-point closing total.  That's a Navy team that likes to slow the game down too, so to get to 62 with Navy was impressive.   Kitna threw for 304 yards and 2 TD with 2 INT in the loss.   They allowed 463 total yards to the Midshipmen.

This total is only this low at 55 because Akron has been shut out in consecutive games against two dead nuts under teams in Wyoming and Nebraska, two teams that rely on defense and don't play fast on offense.  But they allowed 68 points to Nebraska and their defense is soft as butter.  I wouldn't be surprised if UAB scores 55 on its own.

But this Akron offense should finally get on track this week taking a big step down in class here after facing very good Nebraska and Wyoming defenses.  While the Zips return just two starters on D and will be terrible on D all season, they return five starters on offense including senior QB Ben Finley.  He threw for 2,604 yards and 16 TD last season for the Zips, and he'll have one of the biggest games of his career this week trying to keep up in a shootout with the Blazers. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Vanderbilt +5.5

The Vanderbilt Commodores were one of the most improved teams in the country last season.  They went 7-6 with five outright upsets as underdogs last season.  Now they have 17 starters back from that team, and this is the best Vanderbilt team I can remember in a long time.

It's largely due to having one of the best leaders in the country in senior QB Diego Pavia.  He just refuses to lose and his teammates follow him.  Paiva is 8-2 ATS as an underdog at Vanderbilt, and he worked his magic at New Mexico State prior leading the Aggies to an appearance in the conference championship game.

South Carolina figures to take a big step back this season.  The Gamecocks only return 12 starters this season and lost 5 NFL draft picks on defense alone, plus four more who signed as undrafted free agents.  They are without CB Judge Collier who was one of their top returnees on D.

These teams already have a common opponent in Virginia Tech.  South Carolina beat Virginia Tech 24-11 on a neutral despite getting outgained by 8 yards.  The Gamecocks got a late punt return TD that was the difference.  Vanderbilt blasted Virginia Tech 44-20 on the road last week.  This was every bit the blowout that the final score showed as the Commodores outgained the Hokies 490 to 248, or by 242 total yards.  They also outgained the Hokies 8.6 to 4.1 yards per play.

Last week, South Carolina had another misleading 38-10 win over South Carolina State as 42.5-point favorites.  They failed to cover the spread by 14.5 points despite getting not one, not two, but three non-offensive touchdowns.  They had two punt return TD's and a fumbled return TD.

LaNorris Sellers is a good QB, but he doesn't have nearly as much help this season.  The Gamecocks have only scored 34 of their 62 total points this season on offense despite the weak schedule.  They only managed 253 total yards against South Carolina State.  They are averaging only 5.2 yards per play on the season while the Commodores are averaging 8.4 yards per play.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* Arkansas/Ole Miss ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 60.5

Quarterbacks and offenses in general tend to take big leaps in Year 2 under Bobby Petrino.  Petrino returned to Arkansas as offensive coordinator last season, and he is back again this season.  Talented QB Taylen Green figures to have a massive senior year after throwing for 3,154 yards and 15 TD last season, while also rushing for 602 yards and 8 scores.

Green and this Arkansas offense are off to a great start beating Alabama A&M 52-7.  This was a 45-7 game entering the 4th quarter before the Hogs called off the dogs.  Green threw for 322 yards and 6 TD in the win.  He backed it up with another 4 TD performance in a 56-14 win over Arkansas State last week.  This Arkansas offense is a juggernaut, but I think the defense will be poor again this season, so the Hogs will find themselves in a lot of shootouts.

There will probably be no tougher test for this Arkansas defense than this Ole Miss offense run by Lane Kiffin.  Ole Miss beat Arkansas 63-31 for 94 combined points last season and scored pretty much every time they touched the football while racking up 694 total yards in the process.

No question this Ole Miss offense won't be as potent this season with the loss to Jaxson Dart, but Kiffin always gets the most out of his QB's, and Ustin Simmons is the next one in line.  Simmons threw for 341 yards and 3 TD in a 63-7 win over Georgia State in the opener.

I think the fact that Ole Miss only beat Kentucky 30-23 last week is keeping this total lower than it should be.  But Kentucky shortened the game by running the play clock down every time, which has been their key to keeping games against Ole Miss competitive in recent years.  Bobby Petrino will have no interest in that, and he doesn't mind getting in a shootout.  This should be one of the most entertaining, high-scoring games of the season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on South Florida +17.5

The South Florida Bulls are a team on the rise and I'm expecting them to make a run at a AAC title this season.  Head coach Alex Golesh is in his 3rd season with the team and has his best squad yet despite already getting the Bulls to bowl games in each of his first two seasons.

Golesh returns 16 starters and gets QB Byrum Brown back from injury.  He was lost for the season after five starts, and while the offense was still in good hands with Bryce Archie, they lost that dual-threat ability of Brown.  Keep in mind freshman Locklan Hewlett is the QB of the future as well to push both.  The offensive line returns four starters, adds in two transfers, and has 115 career starts back.

The biggest improvement should come from a defense that returns eight starters.  Each of the top three tacklers are back, and they added a lot of talent in the portal.  Each unit looks like the best of the Golesh era, and DC Todd Orlando should get the most out of them.

I cashed USF +6.5 over Boise State in the opener in a 34-7 upset victory.  Brown went 16-of-24 passing for 210 yards, while also rushing for 43 yards and two scores.  He also had a TD called back by penalty.  The Bulls were on cruise control in the 2H with the game in hand.

I cashed USF +18.5 last week in a 18-16 upset road win at Florida.  There was nothing fluky about that win as the Bulls outgained the Gators 391 to 355, or by 36 total yards.  Brown threw for 263 yards and a TD while also rushing for 66 yards in the win.  He is one of the best QB's in the country that nobody knows about.

If the Bulls playing anyone other than another in-state rival and Top 5 team in the country in Miami, they would probably have a letdown this week.  But they'll have no problem getting up for this game against the Hurricanes, and I fully expect them to give Miami a run for its money today.

Miami is getting a lot of respect for its 27-24 win over Notre Dame in the opener.  That's a Notre Dame team that was breaking in a freshman QB and with a much weaker defense than last year and new defensive coordinator.  Miami came back with a lackluster 45-3 win as 53.5-point favorites over Bethune-Cookman last week.  They just cannot be trusted to lay these kinds of numbers as Mario Cristobal is the king of underachieving.  Miami has a much bigger game against Florida on deck next week.  Bet South Florida Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Iowa State/Arkansas State OVER 55

Arkansas State is a dead nuts OVER team under offensive-minded head coach Butch Jones.  The Red Wolves allowed 32.2 points per game and 462 yards per game last season.  You won't think they could be any worse, but they might be this season with just three starters back on D.  They lose each of their top 11 tacklers from last season.

But the Red Wolves have a lot of talent returning on offense including QB Jaylen Raynor, who completed 62% of his passes for 2,783 yards and 16 TD last season, while also rushing for 387 yards and 3 scores.  Also back is WR Corey Rucker, who had 1,053 yards and 7 TD last season.

To no surprise, Arkansas State was in a shootout in Week 1 beating SE Missouri State 42-24 for 66 combined points.  Raynor went 26-of-32 passing for 345 yards and 3 TD.  Their D allowed 365 yards and 5.4 per play against a terrible FCS team.  It was an even bigger shootout last week in a 56-14 loss at Arkansas and 70 combined points.  The Razorbacks racked up 630 yards on this soft Red Wolves defense.

The Iowa State Cyclones will hang another big number on Arkansas State.  They beat the Red Wolves 52-7 for 59 combined points at home last season, and they should come close to hanging 50 again.  They beat South Dakota 55-7 in Week 2 with a similar level of defense.  The other two games were against two top notch defenses in Iowa and Kansas State, which were lower scoring and are keeping this total lower than it should be.  Rocco Becht is legit one of the best QB's in the country, completing 68% of his passes for 595 yards with a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio thus far.

It's also true Iowa State's defense has benefited from playing a pretty easy schedule of opposing offenses thus far in K-State, Iowa and South Dakota.  I think Raynor and company can get two or three touchdowns on this Iowa State defense to help contribute to us cashing this OVER ticket.  Temps will be in the 90's with no wind so it will be perfect scoring conditions, plus both defenses will get tired in the 2H.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Rivalry GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh -6.5

The Pitt Panthers were 7-0 last season before QB Eli Holstein got injured.  They went 0-6 over their final six games with three losses by 5 points or fewer.  That poor finish put a big chip on their shoulder in the offseason, and they are undervalued to start the season as a result.

The Panthers are loaded with 16 returning starters as this could be one of the best teams of the Pat Narduzzi era as he enters his 11th season.  Holstein is now a sophomore and figures to be one of the best QB's in the country.  He has completed 70.6% of his passes with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio while leading the Panthers to a 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start with wins over Duquesne 61-9 as 39.5-point favorites and Central Michigan 45-17 as 21.5-point favorites.

West Virginia looks like one of the worst Power 4 teams in the country under first-year head coach Rich Rodriquez.  Only 10 starters are back, and they lost top RB Jahiem White (845 yards, 7 TD LY) and starting WR Jaden Bray (7 receptions, 95 yards TY) to season-ending injuries last week against Ohio.  The Mountaineers are full of transfers who don't even know much about this rivalry with Pitt, and I question their motivation compared to that of the Panthers as well.

After opening with a 45-3 win over Robert Morris as 40.5-point favorites, the Mountaineers were upset 17-10 at Ohio as 3.5-point favorites.  But they should have lost by even more as that was a very misleading final score.  They were outgained 429 to 250 by Ohio, or by 179 total yards.  The Bobcats three three 2H interceptions or would have won by more.  That's an Ohio team that lost a lot of key players from last season including most of their D and also had a first-year head coach.  Like Ohio, Pitt should easily win this game by a TD or more.  Bet Pittsburgh Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Missouri State +28

The SMU Mustangs are overvalued this season due to making the 12-team playoff last year after taking advantage of a very week ACC schedule.  SMU only returns 12 starters and loses Brashard Smith who rushed for 1,332 yards and 14 TD last season.  They also lose their top two receivers.

SMU beat East Texas A&M 42-13 as 50.5-point favorites in what was a very misleading final in Week 1.  But SMU had two pick 6's and only outgained lowly East Texas A&M by 51 yards! That's the same East Texas A&M team that went on to lose 77-3 to Florida State last week!

The spot is terrible for SMU.  The Mustangs blew a late 14-point lead against in-state rival Baylor and lost 48-45 (OT) in Week 2.  They allowed 601 total yards to the Bears and were outgained by 143 yards.  I question how much they will have left in the tank this week, I like fading teams coming off a very close loss in a big game rather than fading a team off a very close win in a big game.  There tends to be more of a hangover effect for the team coming off the loss.

SMU WR Jordan Hudson, their 3rd-leading receiver from last year, is doubtful after sustaining an injury against East Texas A&M and sitting out the Baylor game.  Injuries are really piling up on defense as starting LB Alex Kilgore, starting LB Zakye Barker and starting DE Cam Robertson are all questionable.  They have another in-state rivalry game with TCU on deck next week, so this is a sandwich spot for them, and they could play it cautious with these injured players because of it.

Missouri State is in its first season as a FBS program.  But the Bears are set up much better for success than most teams making the leap to the FBS level.  They have a 3rd-year head coach in Ryan Beard and some stability.  They also return their best player in QB Jacob Clark, who threw for 3,604 yards with a 26-to-6 TD/INT ratio last season.

I think USC is a playoff contender this season, and Missouri State is undervalued now after a 73-13 loss at USC in the opener.  That came to fruition last week when the Bears went into Marshall and pulled the 21-20 win as 7-point underdogs.  That game was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed as Missouri State outgained Marshall 474 to 274, or by 200 total yards.  Clark went 21-of-31 passing for 359 yards and 3 TD with one INT in the win.

There will be no letdown for the Bears after their first FBS win as they now get to play their home opener, and fans will pack the stadium in anticipation with a team from the ACC coming to town.  No question the Bears will be more motivated for this game than the Mustangs, who will get more of a fight than they bargained for this week. Bet Missouri State Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Oregon State/Texas Tech OVER 60.5

Texas Tech looks like a dead nuts OVER team this season.  The Red Raiders put up 37.6 points per game and 463 yards per game last season.  They returned 10 starters on offense this season including QB Behren Morton, who had a 27-to-8 TD/INT ratio last season.  They brought in offensive coordinator Mack Leftwich, who led Texas State's up-tempo, high-powered offense under G.J. Kinne over the last two seasons.

The Red Raiders allowed 34.8 points per game and 460 yards per game last season.  They do have 11 starters back on defense, but that's no necessarily a good thing.  They opened with two easy OVERS beating Arkansas-Pine Bluff 67-7 for 74 combined points and Kent State 62-14 for 76 combined points.  This total of 60.5 points isn't high enough this week, either.

I like what I've seen from Oregon State on offense.  After losing 34-15 to California in the opener, they lost 36-27 to Fresno State last week for 63 combined points.  They racked up 528 total yards on Fresno State and really should have won the game.  They missed four 2-point conversions in that contest as well.

Oregon State QB Malik Murphy is doing his part throwing for 615 yards and 4 TD in two games.  They have a stud RB in Anthony Hankerson, and two sud WR's in Trent Walker (16 receptions, 235 yards) and Taz Reddicks (12, 174) for him to throw to.  The defense is a mess after allowing 29.9 points per game last season, they have allowed 35 points per game through two games this season.  But I think they can keep up in a shootout with the Red Raiders as these teams trade scores for four quarters.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Clemson/Georgia Tech ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Georgia Tech +3.5

Georgia Tech is a better team than Clemson from what I've seen thus far.  They should not be home underdogs in a game they will win outright, though we will take the points for some insurance.

Georgia Tech returned 14 starters this season.  They pulled off upsets over then-No. 4 Miami 28-23 as 9-point dogs, and they nearly upset then-No. 6 Georgia in a 44-42 (8 OT) loss in the regular season finale last year.  They returned QB Haynes Kings and RB Jamal Haynes, their two biggest playmakers on offense.

Georgia Tech opened with a 27-20 road win at Colorado.  The Yellow Jackets managed to cover as 3.5-point favorites despite being -3 in turnovers.  This was a misleading final score to say the least as the Yelow Jackets outgained the Buffaloes 463 to 305, or by 158 total yards.  They also outgained them 6.8 to 5.1 yards per play.

King sat out a 59-12 win over Gardner Webb as 37.5-point favorites last week for precautionary reasons.  Backup QB Philo threw for 373 yards in his place.  King is expected to return for the Clemson game, and he is arguably the best leader of any QB in the country.  His team will rally around his return.

Clemson lost 17-10 as 5.5-point home favorites to LSU in the opener.  LSU went on to a lackluster 23-7 home win over Louisiana Tech as 36.5-point favorites, so that win looks even worse now.  But what looks even worse than that was a 27-16 home win over Troy as 30.5-point favorites last week by the Tigers.  Clemson only outgained Troy 316 to 301, or by 15 total yards.  The Tigers even benefited from 3 INT by Troy QB Crowder and still couldn't put them away.

A big reason this Clemson offense has struggled is because they have been without their best receiver in Antonio Williams, who had 75 receptions for 904 yards and 11 TD last season.  Williams remains doubtful for this game, and fellow starting LT Tristan Leight is doubful as well.  Starting safety Khalil Barnes (60 tackles, 4 INT) last year is likely to miss this game as well.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Georgia Tech Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Temple +24.5

This is the ultimate flat spot for the Oklahoma Sooners.  They are coming off a 24-13 home win as 4-point favorites against Michigan last week.  They have an even bigger game on deck against Auburn in their SEC opener next week, which will be Jackson Arnold's revenge game.  They just want to get in and get out of Temple with a win and aren't concerned with getting margin.

I have a lot of respect for Temple first-year head coach K.C. Keeler with all the success he had a Sam Houston State.  He won a FCS national title with Delaware, and he won the FCS national title with Sam Houston State.  Temple is very lucky to have him, and the Owls are already showing major improvement through two games this season.

After crushing UMass 42-10 as 2-point favorites in their opener, the Owls blasted Howard 55-7 as 28.5-point favorites last week.  So they have covered the spread by a combined 49.5 points in their first two games, which just shows how undervalued they are to open the season.

QB Evan Simon has some of the best numbers in the country completing 77.1% of his passes with a 9-to-0 TD/INT ration.  RB Jevyon Ducker has rushed for 215 yards and a TD while averaging 7.4 per carry.  They have two 100-yard receivers in WR Bermudez (8, 111, 1 TD) and TE Clarke (6, 119, 2 TD).  Six different receivers have caught a TD pass from Simon.

The improvement on defense courtesy of many transfers has been the most impressive.  The Owls were terrible defensively last season allowing 35.4 points per game.  They are allowing just 8.5 points per game, 211.5 yards per game and 3.8 yards per play through two games.  They are good enough to hang around for four quarters given the obvious flat spot for the Sooners.  The Owls will be the much more motivated team Saturday, especially after losing 51-3 in their opener at Oklahoma last season.  Bet Temple Saturday.

15* CFB Friday Night Line Mistake on Houston -5.5

The Houston Cougars will be one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They finally got the head coach that can turn this program around in Willie Fritz.  He led Sam Houston to back-to-back FCS title games, led Georgia Southern to a Sun Belt title in his first season, and led Tulane to 12-2 and Cotton Bowl champs in 2022 and 11-1 and an AAC title game appearance in 2023.

The cupboard was bare for Fritz in his first season last year coming off a 4-8 campaign in 2023.  He only had nine starters back and the Cougars went 4-8 in his first season.  Now Fritz has 16 starters back in 2025 and all the pieces in place.  He brought back his offensive coordinator at Tulane in Slade Nagle, and nabbed defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong from Florida.

The Cougars are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS this season winning 27-0 over Stephen F. Austin as 24-point favorites and 35-9 at Rice as 14-point favorites.  The road win over Rice was particularly impressive considering the Owls had upset Louisiana on the road as 10-point underdogs in Week 1.  The Cougars outgained the Owls 392 to 228 for the game and 6.5 to 3.5 yards per play.

Houston had a great defense last year holding foes to 22.9 points per game and 325 yards per game.  That defense is even better this season.  And after having one of the worst offenses in the country last year, the Cougars finally have an offense this season with nine starters back.  They brought in Texas A&M transfer Conner Weigman, who was a Top 5 recruit coming out of high school but just couldn't stay healthy in College Station.

But as high as I am on Houston this season, this play is as much a fade of Colorado as anything.  The Buffaloes lost Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter, QB Shedeur Sanders and each of his top four receivers from last season.  They are going to regress big time this season after a 9-4 campaign last year with all that talent.

Colorado has had two very misleading finals to start the season.  They lost 27-20 at home to Georgia Tech in Week 1.  The Yellow Jackets really dominated that game outgaining the Buffaloes 463 to 305 and 6.8 to 5.1 yards per play.  Georgia Tech won and covered -3.5 despite being -3 in turnovers as well.

Last week, Colorado beat Delaware 31-7 as 24-point home favorites.  But that was a very misleading final as well.  The Buffaloes only outgained the Blue Hens 398 to 396 for the game, or by 2 yards.  They were outgained 5.7 to 6.0 yards per play by the Blue Hens.  The Buffaloes also benefited from being +2 in turnovers, and Delaware stopped itself time and time again deep in Colorado territory failing to turn all that yardage into points.

Deion Sanders has already decided to bench Liberty transfer QB Kaidon Salter, while also bypassing 5-star freshman Julian Lewis.  He is going with 3rd-string QB Ryan Staub which feels like a desperate move this early in the season.  I don't expect it to go well for Staub in his first career start on the road in a hostile atmosphere on a Friday night in Houston.  Bet Houston Friday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Total DOMINATOR on Georgia Southern/USC OVER 60.5

USC covered the total on their own in a 73-13 win over Missouri State in their opener in Week 1.  I think they are capable of doing the same thing here against Georgia Southern to lead the way in us cashing this OVER 60.5 ticket.

Georgia Southern allowed 42 points to Fresno State in Week 1.  That's really poor when you consider Fresno State managed just 7 points against Kansas in Week 0.  The Bulldogs ran for 351 yards and totaled 527 total yards against the Eagles.  You can only imagine what this potent USC offense under Lincoln Riley and Heisman candidate Jordan Maiava is going to do to this defense.

Georgia Southern should do enough to contribute to this total.  The Eagles do return their QB and two of their top three receivers under offensive-minded head coach Clay Helton.  They will continue to try and score late even if they are getting blown out.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on USC -27.5

The USC Trojans went 7-6 last season with five of their losses coming by 1, 3, 3, 5 and 7 points.  That's how close they were to being a 12-1 team.  Now Lincoln Riley returns 16 starters and one of the most experienced teams in the country.  The Trojans are flying under the radar this season as a sleeper to win the Big Ten.

The Trojans are off and running blasting Missouri State 73-13 as 35.5-point favorites in Week 1.  Jordan Maiva finished strong last season and is off to a great start this season and a sleeper to win the Heisman Trophy.  Maiava went 15-of-18 passing for 295 yards and 2 TD, while also rushing for a score in the opener.  He will have another big game here as the Trojans make easy work of Georgia Southern.

The Eagles opened with a 42-14 loss at Fresno State as 1-point underdogs.  That loss to a rebuilding Fresno State team with a first-year head coach looks real bad when you consider Fresno State lost 31-7 at Kansas in Week 0.  The Eagles have no hope of keeping this game within four touchdowns of USC if they couldn't do it against Fresno.  The Bulldogs ran for 351 yards and totaled 527 total yards against the Eagles.  You can only imagine what this potent USC offense is going to do to this defense.  Bet USC Saturday.

25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Mississippi State +7

It's time to 'buy low' on Mississippi State after a 2-10 season.  Jeff Lebby stepped into a tough situation with just nine returning starters in his first season.  The Bulldogs held their own against many of the top teams in the country losing by 7 to Arizona State, by 10 to Georgia, by 10 to Texas A&M and by 12 to Ole Miss.  Now they will be one of the most improved teams in the country in Year 2 for Lebby.

The Bulldogs return 16 starters and get their stud QB Blake Shapen back from injury after being lost for the year after four starts.  Shapen completed 69% of his passes for 974 yards with an 8-to-1 TD/INT ratio in those four starts while also rushing for two scores.  Nine starters in all are back on offense as this will be an explosive unit.

But the biggest improvement should come from a defense that allowed 34.1 points and 456 yards per game last season.  Seven starters and four of the top five tacklers are back, plus they added a lot of talent through the portal.  They are bigger up front this year and improved at DE particularly to get more pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

The Bulldogs made easy work of Southern Miss in a 34-17 win as 14-point favorites in the opener.  They led 34-10 before calling off the dogs in the 4th quarter.  They won and covered against a Southern Miss team that many are very high on due to getting Marshall head coach Charlie Huff and many of his players from a team that won the Sun Belt last season.  Shapen was sharp, going 26-of-34 passing for 270 yards in the win.  They gained 465 yards and 5.9 per play and held the Eagles to 301 yards and 4.1 per play.

While I think Mississippi State is one of the most underrated teams in the country coming into the season, I also feel Arizona State is one of the most overrated teams after a dream season last year that saw them win the Big 12 Championship and give Texas all they could handle in the 12-team playoff.  The Sun Devils pulled off the miracle, finishing 1st after being picked to finish last in the Big 12.  Now I think they will regress and finish middle of the pack this season.

While the Sun Devils return 17 starters and will be good again, they lose their heart and soul in RB Cam Skattebo, who put the team on his shoulders all season last year.  Skattebo rushed for 1,711 yards and 21 TD, while also catching 45 balls for 605 yards and three scores.  He made life much easier on QB Sam Leavitt, who will have to shoulder much more of the load this season and I don't think he's ready for it.

I faded Boise State with USF in a similar situation in a 34-7 loss to the Bulls as 6.5-point favorites.  They lost Ashton Jeanty and more is on Maddux Madsen this season, and he's not ready for it.  I don't think Leavitt is ready for it, either.  The Sun Devils got off to an underwhelming start beating FCS Northern Arizona 38-19 as 29.5-point favorites and not even coming close to covering the spread.  They only had one more first down than Northern Arizona and only outgained them by 129 yards.

Mississippi State wants revenge from a 30-23 road loss at Arizona State last season.  Shapen played well going 18-of-28 passing for 268 yards and 2 TD in the loss.  Leavitt only went 10-of-20 for 69 yards in the win.  That's because they relied so heavily on Skattebo, who had a whopping 262 rushing yards in the win, while also finishing as the leading receiver with 35 yards.  He accounted for 297 of their 415 total yards!  Bet Mississippi State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Army +17.5

I successfully faded Army last week cashing Tarleton State +14.5 in a 30-27 upset win in OT over the Black Knights.  Now I think it's time to 'buy low' on Army off that upset loss to what I believe is one of the best FCS teams in the country in Tarleton State.  The betting public tends to really put too much stock into poor performances against FCS teams.

It's like they are completely ignoring the fact that Kansas State should have lost outright to a much worse FCS team in North Dakota last week.  After losing 24-21 to Iowa State as a 3-point favorite in Ireland, the Wildcats were flat as expected last week in a 38-35 win over North Dakota as 27.5-point favorites.  They needed a game-winning TD with 42 seconds left just to escape with the victory.

I think this is already a tired Kansas State team after the trip to Ireland and two games that went down to the wire.  That's bad news going up against Army, a team that will test your will defensively by running for 3-4 yards at a time in a physical style of football.  Army will also shorten the game, so getting 17.5 points here is a great value.

Army allowed just 15.5 points per game last season and has another good defense with five of their top nine tacklers returning, including their top two.  This Kansas State defense looks awful thus far allowing 24 points to Iowa State and 35 to North Dakota.  The Wildcats only returned 10 starters this season including five on defense, losing four of their top six tacklers.

I think QB Avery Johnson is one of the most overrated QB's in the country.  The offense has missed DJ Giddens, who rushed for 1,343 yards last season.  RB Dylan Edwards was supposed to be their workhorse this season, but he has been out with an injury and may not return this week.

With another Big 12 game on deck Friday at Arizona, I think Kansas State won't put everything into this game.  The Wildcats will be in for a 3rd straight dog fight to start the season, and that's exactly the type of football the Black Knights live for.  Bet Army Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Arkansas State/Arkansas OVER 63.5

Quarterbacks and offenses in general tend to take big leaps in Year 2 under Bobby Petrino.  Petrino returned as offensive coordinator last season, and he is back again this season.  Talented QB Taylen Green figures to have a massive senior year after throwing for 3,154 yards and 15 TD last season, while also rushing for 602 yards and 8 scores.

Green and this Arkansas offense are off to a great start beating Alabama A&M 52-7.  This was a 45-7 game entering the 4th quarter before the Hogs called off the dogs.  Green threw for 322 yards and 6 TD in the win.  They won't be calling off the dogs against Arkansas State, which called them out for not playing them in previous seasons.  They want to make a statement after all that shit talk, and although I like Arkansas to cover the spread as well, I think it favors the OVER more.

Arkansas State is a dead nuts OVER team under offensive-minded head coach Butch Jones.  The Red Wolves allowed 32.2 points per game and 462 yards per game last season.  You won't think they could be any worse, but they might be this season with just three starters back on D.  They lose each of their top 11 tacklers from last season.

But the Red Wolves have a lot of talent returning on offense including QB Jaylen Rayno, who completed 62% of his passes for 2,783 yards and 16 TD last season, while also rushing for 387 yards and 3 scores.  Also back is WR Corey Rucker, who had 1,053 yards and 7 TD last season.

To no surprise, Arkansas State was in a shootout in Week 1 beating SE Missouri State 42-24 for 66 combined points.  Raynor went 26-of-32 passing for 345 yards and 3 TD.  Their D allowed 365 yards and 5.4 per play against a terrible FCS team.  I expect Arkansas to score 50-plus to lead the way, and Raynor and company tacking off enough scores to get this game OVER this 63.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on South Florida +18.5

The South Florida Bulls are a team on the rise and I'm expecting them to make a run at a AAC title this season.  Head coach Alex Golesh is in his 3rd season with the team and has his best squad yet despite already getting the Bulls to bowl games in each of his first two seasons.

Golesh returns 16 starters and gets QB Byrum Brown back from injury.  He was lost for the season after five starts, and while the offense was still in good hands with Bryce Archie, they lost that dual-threat ability of Brown.  Keep in mind freshman Locklan Hewlett is the QB of the future as well to push both.  The offensive line returns four starters, adds in two transfers, and has 115 career starts back.

The biggest improvement should come from a defense that returns eight starters.  Each of the top three tacklers are back, and they added a lot of talent in the portal.  Each unit looks like the best of the Golesh era, and DC Todd Orlando should get the most out of them.

I cashed USF +6.5 over Boise State in the opener in a 34-7 upset victory.  Brown went 16-of-24 passing for 210 yards, while also rushing for 43 yards and two scores.  He also had a TD called back by penalty.  The Bulls were on cruise control in the 2H with the game in hand.

There will be no letdown here against big brother Florida as the Bulls will actually want this win more.  They also get the benefit of an extra day of rest and preparation after playing Boise State last Friday.  I think they show they can hang here for four quarters.

Florida is much less battle-tested after a 55-0 win over one of the worst teams in the FCS in Long Island.  The Gators have a big game against LSU on deck in their SEC opener and won't want to show more than they have to.  But I think they will get more of a fight from USF than they bargained for.  Bet South Florida Saturday.

15* USF/Florida SEC Network ANNIHILATOR on OVER 55.5

The South Florida Bulls are a team on the rise and I'm expecting them to make a run at a AAC title this season.  Head coach Alex Golesh is in his 3rd season with the team and has his best squad yet despite already getting the Bulls to bowl games in each of his first two seasons.

Golesh returns 16 starters and gets QB Byrum Brown back from injury.  He was lost for the season after five starts, and while the offense was still in good hands with Bryce Archie, they lost that dual-threat ability of Brown.  Keep in mind freshman Locklan Hewlett is the QB of the future as well to push both.  The offensive line returns four starters, adds in two transfers, and has 115 career starts back.

USF scored 34 points on a very good Boise State defense in Week 1.  Brown went 16-of-24 passing for 210 yards, while also rushing for 43 yards and two scores.  He also had a TD called back by penalty.  The Bulls were on cruise control in the 2H with the game in hand or they could have scored more.  They are a dead nuts OVER team with a great, up-tempo offense and mediocre defense.

Florida's offense is in good hands with QB DJ Lagway and eight returning starters on offense.  Lagway played well as a freshman taking over for an injured Graham Mertz.  He was the #3 rated QB in the country coming out of high school.  The Gators hung 55 points on Long Island in the opener and should hang a pretty big number on this USF defense as well.  This total of 55.5 is too short today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UAB/Navy OVER 58.5

Navy had one of its best offenses in program history last season with 31.3 points per game.  The Midshipmen should be even more potent this season considering they return eight starters on offense including QB Blake Horvath, who rushed for 1,246 yards and 17 TD while also throwing for 1,353 yards and 13 TD last season.  They return all of their top playmakers as well.

Navy blasted VMI 52-7 in the opener for 59 combined points.  The Midshipmen should do the heavy lifting in covering this 58.5-point total against UAB as well.  But the Blazers should also have plenty of success on offense which is their strong suit.  Navy loses six starters on D including their top three tacklers and two who had over 100 tackles last season.

UAB's defense won't offer much more resistance than VMI.  The Blazers allowed 34.3 points per game last season.  They return just four starters on D and lose nine of their top 10 tacklers from a year ago.  They are going to be forced to try and win shootouts again this season, and that was on display in Week 1.

UAB beat Alabama State 52-42 as 21-point favorites with a total of just 53.5.  They sailed over that total by 40.5 points finishing with 94 combined points.  They gained 520 yards and 9.0 yards per play while allowing 514 yards and 7.9 per play.

UAB's offense took off once Jalen Kitna took over at QB for Jacob Zeno after a 41-18 loss to Navy.  The Blazers averaged 33.4 points per game over their final five games last season.  Kitna completed 62% of his passes for 2,209 yards and a 17-to-11 TD/INT ratio in eight starts last season.  He went 18-of-23 passing for 247 yards and 2 TD against Alabama State last week and is now comfortable in Trent Dilfer's system.  He will keep coming even if Navy is winning in a blowout.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Iowa/Iowa State FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State -2.5

The Iowa State Cyclones could not have been more impressive in their 2-0 start to the season.  They upset Kansas State 24-21 as 3-point underdogs in Ireland in Week 0, and instead of having a letdown they handled their business in a 55-7 win over South Dakota as 16.5-point home favorites in Week 1.

Kansas State returned from Ireland and nearly lost outright to North Dakota, winning 38-35 as 27.5-point favorites after a late score.  And North Dakota won 2 games in conference last year while South Dakota won the conference with a 7-1 record last year and brought back a lot of key pieces from that team.  South Dakota was a Top 5 ranked FCS team when Iowa State beat them last week.

Iowa State has one of the best QB's in the country in Rocco Becht, who is completing 68.8% of his passes for 461 yards with a 5-to-0 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for a score thus far.  The Cyclones have arguably the deepest TE room in the country and they are using them marvelously thus far.  Brahmer has 9 receptions for 88 yards and 2 TD, while Burkle has 116 yards and a TD through two games.

Death, taxes and poor QB play at Iowa.  Talk about an underwhelming first start for South Dakota State transfer QB Mark Gronowski.  He went 8-of-15 for 44 yards averaging just 2.9 yards per attempt against dreadful FCS Albany in a 34-7 win as 39.5-point favorites in Week 1.  Iowa actually trailed 7-3 midway through the 2nd quarter in that game.  The Hawkeyes only averaged 5.2 yards per play on offense, and it's clear this offense is a problem again.

Iowa State has turned the corner against Iowa after many years of suffering.  Let's just look at the yardage totals the last five years under Matt Campbell.  Iowa State has 1,721 yards averaging 344.2 yards per game in its last five meetings with the Hawkeyes.  Iowa has totaled just 1,174 yards and an average of 234.8 yards per game in those five meetings.  So the Cyclones are outgaining the Hawkeyes by 110 yards per game over the last five meetings.

Of course, Iowa has found a way to win three of those games as they usually have one big swing play go in their favor.  But the Cyclones are now more disciplined than ever, and they have more ways to beat you with their passing game.  Iowa is too predictable and Iowa State will be able to load the box to try and make Gronowski beat them.  I don't think he'll be up to task in his first taste of this huge rivalry on the road.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Total DOMINATOR on Iowa/Iowa State UNDER 42.5

This is a dead nuts UNDER rivalry between Iowa and Iowa State.  The UNDER is 17-3 in the last 20 meetings between the Cyclones and Hawkeyes.  13 of the last 20 meetings have seen 42 or fewer combined points.  Five of the last six meetings have seen 39 points or fewer.

Death, taxes and poor QB play at Iowa.  Talk about an underwhelming first start for South Dakota State transfer QB Mark Gronowski.  He went 8-of-15 for 44 yards averaging just 2.9 yards per attempt against dreadful FCS Albany in a 34-7 win as 39.5-point favorites in Week 1.  The Hawkeyes only averaged 5.2 yards per play on offense, and it's clear this offense is a problem again.

Iowa will have to rely on running the football and playing defense to try and keep this game competitive, which they have done under Kirk Ferentz's entire tenure.  Iowa State has had one of the better defenses in the country under Matt Campbell.  The Cyclones have allowed 22.9 points per game or fewer in five consecutive seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Baylor +3

Baylor is loaded this season with 18 returning starters including QB Sawyer Robinson, one of the best QB's in the country.  I think it's time to 'buy low' on the Bears after losing 38-24 at home to a very good team from the SEC in Auburn in Week 1.  They will be highly motivated to avoid an 0-2 start.

Baylor went 6-0 in their final six games last season before losing to LSU in the bowl game, so their only two losses are to two SEC teams during this stretch.  And that loss to Auburn was very misleading, as was the loss to LSU.  They outgained LSU 507 to 427.

Baylor also outgained Auburn 483 to 415 for the game and 6.7 to 6.0 yards per play.  The difference was Auburn had a KO return TD, and Baylor was stopped on downs twice inside the 10-yard line.

Speaking of misleading, SMU beat East Texas A&M 42-13 as 50.5-point favorites last week.  But SMU had two pick 6's and only outgained lowly East Texas A&M by 51 yards!  I think the Mustangs are overvalued after making the 12-team playoff last year, and that was evident last week.  They should not be favored over Baylor this week.  

SMU only returns 12 starters and loses Brashard Smith who rushed for 1,332 yards and 14 TD last season.  They also lose their top two receivers.  WR Jordan Hudson, their 3rd-leading receiver from last year, is doubtful after sustaining an injury against East Texas A&M.  Starting LB Alexander Kilgore is questionable.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

15* CFB Friday Night Line Mistake on Northern Illinois +17.5

It's time to 'buy low' on Northern Illinois after a 19-17 win as 13.5-point favorites over FCS Holy Cross in their opener.  There's always a lot of value on teams who struggle against FCS teams moving forward as the betting public factors it in too much.

It's time to 'sell high' on Maryland after a very misleading 39-7 win over Florida Atlantic as 13.5-point favorites.  Maryland got a Pick 6 in that game and forced 6 turnovers as the Owls basically handed them the game.

Most concerning is that Maryland averaged just 4.9 yards per play against FAU.  The Terrapins only outgained the Owls by 26 yards for the game and had few first downs than FAU.  I just don't think this Maryland team is very good this season and that will show on Friday.

NIU did hold Holy Cross to just 218 total yards and 11 first downs, so the defense is good again this season.  The Huskies outgained them by 71 yards for the game.

Northern Illinois has had great success against Power 4 teams in recent years.  Last year, they upset Notre Dame as 28-point dogs handing the Fighting Irish their only regular season loss. They also lost to NC State by 7 on the road last season.  They upset Boston College as 8-point road dogs in 2023.  They lost by 10 to Vanderbilt and by 8 to Kentucky as 26-point dogs in 2022.  They upset Georgia Tech as 19-point road dogs in 2021.  The Huskies are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games against Big Ten opponents.  Bet Northern Illinois Friday.

15* TCU/UNC ESPN ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 56.5

The Bill Belichick era at North Carolina beings Monday.  He is doing everything he can to make the Tar Heels more like an NFL team.  Take care of the football with a ball control offense, and rely on defense to win games.  He has gone as far as to install real grass in their new Kenan Memorial Stadium, which will favor his style of play rather than speed which comes with artificial turf.

New offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens comes over from the NFL.  The Tar Heels will certainly struggle offensively with all they lose.  RB Omarion Hampton (1,650 yards, 15 TD) is one as are each of their top three receivers.  Like in his time with the Patriots, Belichick will be working with a bunch of underwhelming skill players.  He will be looking to run the football more and rely on multiple TE sets.

But the Tar Heels look to be in pretty good hands defensively.  They bringing in defensive coordinator Steve Belichick, who was Washington's DC last year and spent 12 seasons on the defensive staff with the Patriots.  He brings a pair of Washington transfers with him in LB Khmori House and CB Thaddeus Dixon.  The secondary will be the strength, and they added some nice transfers up front, from Penn State, Florida and ECU.

Everyone thinks offense when they think of TCU head coach Sonny Dykes, but he had his best defense yet last season as the Horned Frogs allowed just 24.6 points per game and 346 yards per game.  Eight starters return on defense and they are in the 2nd year of coordinator Andy Avalos' system.  The defense looks to be the strength of the team this season.

The Horned Frogs lose five of their top six receivers and their top two running backs from last season.  They do get QB Josh Hoover back, but I don't love the replacements at the skill positions, so he could struggle to find chemistry with his plethora of new weapons in the early going.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Notre Dame/Miami ABC No-Brainer on Notre Dame -2.5

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish finished 14-2 last season.  They won three playoff games over Indiana, Georgia and Penn State before succumbing to Ohio State in the National Championship Game.  They are a legit national title contender again in 2025.

The Fighting Irish return 14 starters.  They have one of the nation's top offensive lines and RB rooms, which will ease the pressure on star freshman QB CJ Carr.  He has been getting rave reviews in fall came from teammates and coaches for his leadership and command of the offense.

Former LSU offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock, who was behind Jayden Daniels' Heisman Trophy winning season, made a huge difference for the Fighting Irish last year.  They scored 36.1 points per game and leaned on a rushing attack that produced 201 yards per game and 5.7 per carry.  Jeremiyah Love (1,125 yards, 17 TD) and Jadarian Price (746 yards, 7 TD) return as arguably the best two-headed monster in the country.  The Fighting Irish return seven starters and five of their top seven tacklers on defense from a unit that allowed just 15.5 points per game.

The Miami Hurricanes hit the portal as hard as anyone to try and replace all the talent they lost from a team that finished 10-3 last season.  I think there will be growing pains early, and they won't be ready for a team with the talent and experience of Notre Dame in the opener.

The Hurricanes lose Heisman Trophy winner Cam Ward, who is irreplaceable.  They lose a 1,000-yard rusher and each of their top 5 receivers on offense.  Georgia transfer QB Carson Beck will not be hitting on all cylinders with all of these new pieces on offense.  The Hurricanes have a lot of talent on defense, but they lose five of their top six tacklers and will be learning new schemes under first-year defensive coordinator Corey Heatherman from Minnesota.

While Notre Dame is 14-5 SU against ranked teams under Marcus Freeman, Miami is just 1-6 SU against ranked teams under Mario Cristobal.  The Fighting Irish are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 true road games.  Better yet, the Fighting Irish are 30-9 ATS in road/neutral games over the past six seasons.  They opened last season with an impressive 23-13 upset road win at Texas A&M, and they played their best away from home all season.

There is rain in the forecast and the potential for a downpour on the grass at Hard Rock Stadium.  That will favor the team with the better offensive line and running game, which is clearly the Fighting Irish.  We are getting them at a great value as only 2.5-point road favorites in the opener.  Bet Notre Dame Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on USC -35.5

The USC Trojans went 7-6 last season but their five losses came by 1, 3, 3, 5 and 7 points.  That's how close they were to being a 12-1 team.  Now Lincoln Riley returns 16 starters and one of the most experienced teams in the country.  The Trojans are flying under the radar this season as a sleeper to win the Big Ten.

Look for the Trojans to make easy work of Missouri State, which enters the FBS for its first season.  The Bears went 8-4 last season.  But their final two games of the season really show their talent level.  They lost 59-21 at North Dakota State and 45-9 to South Dakota State, two of the top teams in the FCS.  USC is on a whole different level, and this will likely be their toughest game in program history.

Missouri State returns just nine starters.  They lose their top two rushers and top two receivers from last season.  They lose each of their top five tacklers and 10 of their top 12 tacklers on defense.  What a mess it's going to be as the Bears will be one of the worst FBS teams in the country, starting with a 40-plus point blowout at USC on the road.  Bet USC Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Michigan -34.5

First-year head coach Sherrone Moore was dealt a tough hand last season taking over for Jim Harbaugh coming off a National Championship.  The Wolverines only returned six starters from that team and opened 5-5.  But they blasted Northwestern 50-6, upset Ohio State as a 19-point road underdog, and upset Alabama as a 16-point dog in the bowl to finish 8-5.

Now the Wolverines have a ton of momentum heading into 2025.  They also have a much more experienced group with 14 returning starters.  Their defense only allowed 19.9 points per game last season, and that unit will be strong again.  But the biggest improvement will come on offense, where the Wolverines were pitiful managing just 22.0 points per game.  It was an amazing job by Moore to win 8 games with that offense.

The Wolverines signed the top QB prospect in the nation in freshman Bryce Underwood, and he will be ready to go from the jump.  The Wolverines will actually have a passing game this season, and they should still be as explosive as ever on the ground.  They will have an improved offensive line to pave the way.

But as much as I think Michigan will be improved this season, this is more of a play against New Mexico than anything.  Head coach Bronco Mendenhall left for Utah State, and a lot of players left with him.  The Lobos will be starting over with first-year head coach Jason Eck, who comes over from FCS Idaho and will be making his debut as a FBS head coach.  They obviously break in two new coordinators as well.

The cupboard is pretty bare for Eck in his first season as this is clearly a rebuilding year.  The Lobos only bring back four starters and lose QB Devon Dampier to Utah.  Hew meant everything to this team last year throwing for 2,768 yards and rushing for 1,166 more.  They also lose a 1,000-yard rusher and two 750-plus yard receivers.  They are literally starting over from scratch on offense, and I can't see them even scoring 7 points against this Michigan defense.

The Lobos allowed 38.0 points per game and 492 yards per game last season.  They can't possibly be any worse defensively, but they won't be that improved, either.  They lose 16 of their top 19 tacklers from last season.  I honestly think Michigan only needs 35 points to cover this spread, but they will likely get 42-plus to lock it up.  Bet Michigan Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Texas A&M -23

Mike Elko enters Year 2 at Texas A&M with one of the most talented, experienced rosters in the country.  Elko returns 16 starters and the 6th-most experienced roster in the country.  No question the Aggies are going to be a legit national title contender this season.

The Aggies opened the season with poor QB play before turning to freshman Marcel Reed, who completed 61% of his passes for 1,864 yards with a 15-to-6 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 543 yards and seven scores.  Now the sophomore should take a big leap forward, especially since he can rely on one of the nation's top offensive lines and one of the deepest backfields in the country.

Elko is one of the best defensive minds in the game.  The Aggies have seven starters and each of their top six tacklers back from a defense that allowed just 22.2 points per game.  They will be even better this season, especially with all the talent they added.  Elko brought in a Top 10 recruiting class to go with all that experience.

No question UTSA has a solid offense with nine returning starters, but the problem is the defense.  The Roadrunners gave up 30.1 points per game last season.  They have just two starters back on defense and lose 12 of their top 14 tacklers.  Head coach Jeff Traylor did little to improve the talent on defense, so the Roadrunners will be giving up points in bunches again.

In their first two road games last season, UTSA was blasted 49-10 at Texas State and 56-7 at Texas.  I think the Roadrunners will receive a similar fate here against another team from the SEC in Texas A&M.  This 23-point spread is too short.  Bet Texas A&M Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on South Dakota +15.5

I won't have many plays on games involving FCS teams, but this is one I couldn't pass up.  I cashed in Tarleton State +14.5 in an outright win over Army last night.  And now I'm backing an even better FCS team in South Dakota here to give Iowa State a run for its money.

South Dakota went 11-3 last season and enters as the 4th-ranked FCS team in the country this season.  Only FCS powers North Dakota State, Montana State and South Dakota State are ranked ahead of them.  And South Dakota has the best FCS QB in the country in Aidan Bouman, an ex-Cyclone who transferred to South Dakota in 2022.

Bouman will have revenge on his mind here and will be playing with a chip on his shoulder.  He threw for 2,958 yards with a 19-to-4 TD/INT ratio last season.  The Coyotes bring back most of their best players at RB, WR and LB as well, and they hit the portal hard bringing in several Power 4 transfers to fill some voids.

But this is a terrible spot for Iowa State, which is the biggest reason I'm on South Dakota.  The Cyclones return from Dublin, Ireland after earning a huge 24-21 upset win over Kansas State in Big 12 play.  NFL teams usually have a bye week when they come back from overseas, but Iowa State won't have that luxury, and I doubt their body clocks have adjusted in time for this game.

I expect the Cyclones to be dragging ass a bit after the long flight back from Ireland and the big time zone change.  And look who they have on deck next week.  The Cy-Hawk rivalry against Iowa looms next week, and they could be caught looking ahead to that game.  At the very least, they don't want to open up the playbook too much to tip their hand.

Iowa State had a stronger team last year when they opened with a lackluster 21-3 win as 27-point favorites over FCS North Dakota.  They only outgained North Dakota by 58 yards in that game.  South Dakota is a better team, and I think the Cyclones will be in for more of a fight than they bargained for this weekend.  Bet South Dakota Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Syracuse/Tennessee OVER 50.5

Syracuse was a dead nuts OVER team last season finishing with 50 or more combined points in 12 of their 13 games.  Their high-powered offense put up 34.1 points and 468 yards per game.  No question they won't be as potent as last year, but they are still an offensive-minded team.

Everyone left Kyle McCord for dead after a poor 2023 as Ohio State's starting QB.  Turns out he lived up to the hype that made him one of the top QB recruits in the country when he went to the right place in Syracuse.  McCord broke the ACC record with 4,779 passing yards for the Orange last season.

Now head coach Fran Brown is going a similar path here with Notre Dame backup QB Steve Angeli.  He completed 75% of his passes with a 10-to-1 TD/INT ratio in his time as a backup QB at Notre Dame.  I think Brown will get the most out of him, and this offense will still be pretty good again.  The defense figures to be pretty poor losing seven of their top 10 tacklers.

Josh Heupel is one of the best offensive minds in the game.  The Vols have averaged at least 32 points per game in each of his first four seasons in Knoxville.  I actually think they upgrade at QB here with Nico Iamaleava being one of the most overrated QB's in the country last season.  There's a reason the Vols wouldn't pay him.  Instead, they get Appalachian State transfer Joey Aguilar, who threw for 6,760 yards and 56 touchdowns over the last two seasons.  He will be able to stretch the field unilke Iamaleava.  He has loads of talent surrounding him, and the Vols should name their number against this Syracuse defense.

No question Tennessee hung its hat on defense last season with the best stop unit of the Huepel era by far.  They can only take a step back, especially considering they played a pretty easy schedule of opposing offenses.  They did give up 42 to Ohio State and 31 to Georgia, however.  And I think Syracuse can do enough against them to contribute to us cashing this OVER 50.5 ticket, which is just below the key number of 51 and a good value.  Especially since it has dropped from an opener of 55.5.  And it will be played in perfect scoring conditions inside the dome at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Mississippi State -13

It's time to 'buy low' on Mississippi State after a 2-10 season.  Jeff Lebby stepped into a tough situation with just nine returning starters in his first season.  The Bulldogs held their own against many of the top teams in the country losing by 7 to Arizona State, by 10 to Georgia, by 10 to Texas A&M and by 12 to Ole Miss.  Now they will be one of the most improved teams in the country in Year 2 for Lebby.

The Bulldogs return 16 starters and get their stud QB Blake Shapen back from injury after being lost for the year after four starts.  Shapen completed 69% of his passes for 974 yards with an 8-to-1 TD/INT ratio in those four starts while also rushing for two scores.  Nine starters in all are back on offense as this will be an explosive unit.

But the biggest improvement should come from a defense that allowed 34.1 points and 456 yards per game last season.  Seven starters and four of the top five tacklers are back, plus they added a lot of talent through the portal.  They are bigger up front this year and improved at DE particularly to get more pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

Southern Miss was legitimately one of the worst teams in the country last year.  The Eagles went 1-11 scoring 15.3 pints per game and allowing 37.8 points per game.  That led to the hiring of Marshall head coach Charlie Huff, who I think is one of the more overrated head coaches in the country.

Marshall got every break to win the Sun Belt title last year.  They will be breaking in new schemes under OC Blake Anderson and DC Jason Semore.  Huff brought many of his Marshall players with him to Southern Miss, but I don't think they are all that talented.  There are going to be a lot of groin pains early and often, starting with a blowout loss in Week 1 to a much more talented team from the SEC.  Bet Mississippi State Saturday.

15* Texas/Ohio State FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on Texas +1.5

Revenge is sometimes overused in sports.  But it certainly applies here.  There's no bigger revenge than getting to play a team that ended your season the year prior.  That is the case with Texas, which lost 28-14 in the semifinals to eventual national champion Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl.

Texas wastes no time getting a shot at revenge taking on Ohio State in the season opener.  The Longhorns are loaded again this season with 11 returning starters and the best recruiting class in the country.  QB Arch Manning will likely be an upgrade over Quinn Ewers, and Steve Sarkisian has groomed him the right way.  He picked up valuable playing time last year due to an injury to Ewers, completing 68% of his passes with a 9-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 108 yards and 4 scores.  He has an embarrassment of riches surrounding him offensively.

The Longhorns likely have the best defense in the country returning 7 starters from a unit that allowed just 15.3 points per game last season.  They held up well in the rugged SEC, and they look just as good this season.  Sarkisian now has all the pieces in place in his 5th season that warrants Texas coming into the season as the No. 1 ranked team in the country.

Many felt Ohio State was fortunate to get into the playoffs with two regular season losses, including a 13-10 home loss to Michigan as a 19-point favorite that kept them out of the Big Ten Championship Game.  They took advantage of their good fortune and a veteran, loaded roster that had 16 starters back and ran the table in the 12-team playoff.

Now the Buckeyes are fat and happy heading into the 2025 season as defending champs, and I like fading teams that I know won't be playing with an edge.  Only nine starters return, and they lose 15 players to the NFL Draft.  They have a freshman QB in Julian Sayin, and while he has ample weapons, he won't be nearly as effective as Will Howard was last season.

I'm most concerned about the fact that Ohio State is breaking in two new coordinators, and they have to be some of the biggest downgrades at coordinator I've ever seen.  The offense loses Chip Kelly to the NFL, while the defense loses Jim Knowles, who many believe is the best D-coordinator in college football.  Replacing him is Matt Patricia, who has been a disaster as a defensive coordinator in the NFL with the Patriots and Eagles prior.  I really think this could be a disastrous year for Ryan Day and the Buckeyes, starting with an 'upset' loss to the Longhorns at home in the opener.  Bet Texas Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UNLV/Sam Houston State OVER 61

What made UNLV an actual playoff contender last year was a great defense led by head coach Barry Odom, who has always been a defensive-minded guy.  The Rebels allowed just 21.3 points per game last season.

Enter Dan Mullen, who has always been an offensive guy with defense optional.  Nine starters are gone on defense and they lose 18 of their top 19 tacklers!  Many followed Odom to Purdue.  And it's clear already that this could be one of the worst defenses in the country.

UNLV needed two touchdowns in the 4th quarter to put away lowly FCS Idaho State as a 30.5-point favorite in a 38-31 win in Week 0.  They allowed a whopping 555 total yards to one of the worst teams in the FCS.  But the offense did its part with 532 total yards and there is a ton of talent on this side of the ball.  QBAnthony Colandrea is a transfer from Virgnia, and leading rusher Jai'Den Thomas who had 918 yards and 7 TD last year had 147 yards and 3 TD on just 10 carries in the opener.

Sam Houston also hired an offensive-minded coach in Phil Longo where defense is optional.  That was the case in their opener in Week 0 as the Bearkats lost 41-24 to Western Kentucky.  They allowed 505 total yards including 401 passing to the Hilltoppers.

Amazingly, the Bearkats lost each of their top 16 tacklers from last year as many followed head coach Keeler to Temple.  Like UNLV, they are going to have one of the worst defenses in the country and have to rely on shootouts to win games.

Longo does have some talent to work with on offense with QB Hunter Watson back.  He is a dual-threat who threw for 1,811 yards and 12 TD while also rushing for 647 yards and 9 TD last year.  Watson threw for 209 yards and rushed for 91 more in the opener against Western Kentucky.  Arizona State transfer Alton McCaskill rushed for 72 yards and a score on 11 carries.

The forecast looks good for a shootout with temps in the 80's, less than 10 MPH winds and less than a 20% chance of rain.  I think both offenses have their way with these two suspect defenses, especially after having a game under their belts after playing in Week 0.  They should be even sharper offensively a week later.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* CFB Friday Night Line Mistake on Tarleton State +14.5

I won't be releasing many games involving FCS teams all season.  This may be the only one.  I would play Tarleton State down to +10.  But I am looking for ways to fade Army this season as it's time to 'sell high' on the Black Knights after a school-record 12-2 season last year.

I backed Army hand over fist last season due to having a once-in-a-lifetime quarterback in Bryson Daily.  He rushed for 1,659 yards and 32 TD, while also throwing for 1,007 yards and 9 TD.  He was the heart and soul of this team, and there isn't a bigger drop off in the entire country at QB this season than what Army is facing with Dewayne Coleman trying to replace him.

The Black Knights have just nine starters back overall and four on offense.  Their offense will struggle to come close to matching last year's numbers as they average 31.1 points per game.  They will be closer to 20 PPG this season.  Their defensive numbers are also unsustainable after holding opponents to 15.5 points per game last season against a very weak schedule.

Tarleton State is ranked in the Top 10 in the FCS Poll coming into the season after a 10-4 season last year that resulted in a playoff appearance.  They delivered a 42-0 road victory against Portland State in Week 0 while rushing for 301 yards and throwing for 152 more.  They handed the Vikings their first shutout home loss in 22 years.

RB Tre Page ran for 160 of his 170 yards in the first half, and QB Victor Gabalis threw a pair of touchdowns in only three quarters of play.  They called off the dogs in the 4th quarter or it could have been worse.  I have to think the Texans prepared for the triple-option in the offseason with one eye on their opener against Portland State and the other eye on their 2nd game of the season here against Army.  This will be more of a dog fight than the Black Knights are prepared for.  Bet Tarleton State Friday.

25* CFB Week 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Nebraska -6

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are one of my favorite teams entering the 2025 season.  In Matt Rhule I trust, and he has worked wonders are previous programs specifically in Year 3, which he is in at Nebraska this season.

Rhule took over Temple in 2023 and went 2-10, 6-6, 10-4 and 10-3 in his four seasons.  He took over Baylor and went 1-11, 7-6 and then 11-3 in his 3rd season.  Rhule has 15 returning starters to work with in Year 3 at Nebraska, and I believe the Cornhuskers are a sleeper to compete for the Big Ten title.

Rhule finally got some bowl practices and beat Boston College in the bowl.  That extra practice time will have worked wonders for this team, especially since they hired a new offensive coordinator down the stretch in Dana Holgorsen.

Holgorsen coached the final four games for the Huskers and you could see a dramatic improvement in freshman QB Dylan Raiola.  He was the 2nd-rated QB in all of college football coming out of high school, and he will take a big leap in Year 3.  The Huskers have 10 starters back on offense and this should be their best offense in a very long time.

Nebraska is always reliable defensively under Rhule.  The Huskers allowed just 18.3 points per game in 2023 and 19.5 points per game in 2024.  That's why I'm not concerned that they have just five returning starters on defense, especially since they do return five of their top nine tacklers.  They bring in Oklahoma transfer Dasan McCullough to take over as their JACK LB.

Cincinnati did not get the benefit of bowl practices last year losing its final five games to finish 5-7.  Scott Satterfield is also in Year 3 after going 3-9 in his first season, and I just don't have nearly as much faith in him despite this potentially being his best team yet.  Like Nebraska, the Bearcats return 15 starters.

The problem is eight starters are back on defense from a unit that allowed 385 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play last season.  I'm not a big fan of QB Brendan Sorsby, and the offense loses leading rusher Corey Kiner (1,153 yards, 5.7/carry) and leading receiver Xzavier Henderson (59 receptions, 738 yards, 4 TD).  Satterfield is doing a terrible job in recruiting as well with the 65th-ranked class of freshmen and JUCO's in the country.

Cincinnati is the bottom team in the betting rotation, and a lot of bettors will assume they are the home team.  However, this game is being played on a neutral, and it is a neutral that will favor Nebraska.  It is being played at Arrowhead Stadium, which is a short drive from Lincoln, and I'm expecting 70-80% of the fans to be Huskers supporters.  Bet Nebraska Thursday.

15* Boise State/USF ESPN ANNIHILATOR on South Florida +6.5

The South Florida Bulls are a team on the rise and I'm expecting them to make a run at a AAC title this season.  Head coach Alex Golesh is in his 3rd season with the team and has his best squad yet despite already getting the Bulls to bowl games in each of his first two seasons.

Golesh returns 16 starters and gets QB Byrum Brown back from injury.  He was lost for the season after five starters, and while the offense was still in good handes with Bryce Archie, they lost that dual-threat ability of Brown.  Keep in mind freshman Locklan Hewlett is the QB of the future as well to push both.  The offensive line returns four starters, adds in two transfers, and has 115 career starts back.

The biggest improvement should come from a defense that returns eight starters.  Each of the top three tacklers are back, and they added a lot of talent in the portal.  Each unit looks like the best of the Golesh era, and DC Todd Orlando should get the most out of them.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Boise State Broncos.  They made the 12-team playoff last year and actually were ranked in the Top 4 to get a bye.  They proceeded to lose 31-14 to Penn State.  They were overvalued all season and had a lot of close wins against bad teams down the stretch.

Now they lose their star RB Ashton Jeanty, who rushed for 2,601 yards and 29 TD last season.  He is irreplaceable for this team, and now the Broncos are going to have to rely a lot more on the right arm of Maddux Madsen.  I don't think he's a very good QB and he benefited from teams being forced to stack the box to try and stop Jeanty.  He won't have that luxury this season.

Boise State led the nation with 55 sacks last year.  They lose a lot of production along the front 7 as 29 sacks are gone.  Five of the top nine tacklers depart as well.  They had all 11 starters back on defense last season which was a big reason for their success.  They will now have four new starters along the front 7.

We saw Boise State struggle to put away Georgia Southern in their opener last season allowing 45 points.  The Broncos are now 0-4 ATS in their last four season openers.  I think this is a very tough spot for the Broncos, who aren't as motivated coming into the season after making the 12-team playoff.  They will be breaking in their 7th different offensive coordinator since 2019.

Finally, it will be hot and humid at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay with temps approaching 90 degrees.  While the Bulls are used to playing in the heat and run an up-tempo offense to wear down opposing defenses, the Broncos aren't used to it at all.  I could see them running out of gas in the 2H while the Bulls continue pouring it on.  Bet South Florida Thursday.

20* Iowa State/Kansas State 2025 CFB Season Opener on Iowa State +3.5

Wrong team favored here.  The Iowa State Cyclones are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Kansas State Wildcats to complete own them under Matt Campbell after years of frustration in this rivalry prior to him.

In Campbell, the Cyclones have one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  He led the Cyclones to a school-record 11 wins last season.  They have 13 starters back from that team including QB Rocco Becht, who is quickly going down as one of the best quarterbacks in program history.  Becht threw for 3,505 yards and a 25-to-9 TD/INT ratio last season, while also rushing for 8 scores.

Kansas State returns only nine starts this season.  The Wildcats had a disjointed spring with just 8 practices due to injuries instead of the normal 15.  They are behind the eight ball with so many new faces and so little practice, making this Week 0 game in Ireland all the more difficult.

Avery Johnson is one of the more overrated quarterbacks in the country with a lack of accuracy as a passer.  They lose RB DJ Giddens, who had 3,087 rushing yards over the past couple seasons and was their work horse.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

20* Ohio State/Notre Dame CFP Championship No-Brainer on Ohio State -9

Note: If you receive this play before NFL Wild Card weekend, I also recommend teasers with Ohio State -2.5 or better paired with the Bills -2.5 or better and the Rams +8.5 or better.  You may need to do a 7-point teaser.  Ohio State/Eagles ML parlay is also a good way to play it.

If you receive this play after NFL Wild Card Weekend, a 6-point teaser with Ohio State -2.5 or better paired with Chiefs -2.5 or better is another great way to play it.

If you're buying this play after the Divisional Round, then a 6-point teaser with Ohio State -2.5 or better pair with Bills +7.5 or better against the Chiefs is another good way to play it.

Ryan Day, Chip Kelly and the Ohio State Buckeyes learned from their loss to Michigan in the regular season finale.  They decided to open it up and let Will Howard cook in the passing game in the 12-team playoff, and it has worked wonders with all of their playmakers on the outside.

The Buckeyes crushed Tennessee 42-17 and jumped on the Vols early with a 21-0 lead after the first quarter.  They threw for 317 yards for the game and actually took their foot off the gas late with the game already in hand, or it could have been worse.

The same thing happened against Oregon in the quarterfinals as the Buckeyes blitzed the Ducks jumping out to a 34-8 lead at halftime.  Will Howard threw three touchdown passes of 40-plus yards in the first half and Henderson popped a 66-yard run after.  They took their foot off the gas in the 2H or it would have been worse than a 41-21 final.  This just goes to show how potent Ohio State could be for four quarters if they actually have their foot on the gas for all four.

Against a very strong Texas defense, the Buckeyes had to work a little harder in their 28-14 win.  They only managed 370 total yards but held Texas to only a pair of scores.  Texas has one of the best defensive lines in the country, something they won't have to worry about against Notre Dame.

Notre Dame is very small along the front four and will have to bring extra guys up in the box to try and stop the run.  The Fighting Irish lost DL Rylie Mills (37 tackles, 7.5 sacks) in the playoffs and he is out for the season.  LT Boubacar Traore (3 sacks) has been out since October.  DL's Onye and Botelho are also out hurting their depth along the D-Line.  CB Benjamin Morrison has been out since Week 7.

The Fighting Irish also have significant injuries along their offensive line.  They have been without starting C Ashton Craig since September 14th.  They just lost freshman LT Anthonie Knapp in their win over Penn State last week.  G Rocco Spindler will be available to play after leaving the Penn State game with an ankle injury. WR Beaux Collins (37 receptions, 458 yards, 3 TD) is questionable after playing just seven snaps against Penn State before leaving with a calf injury.

Ohio State is the better, much healthier team in this one.  The Buckeyes have by far the better offense and it's not even close.  But they also have the better defense.  The Buckeyes rank 1st in scoring defense at 12.2 points per game, 1st in total defense at 251.1 yards per game and 1st at 4.1 yards per play.

Notre Dame is handicapped on offense.  The Fighting Irish rely heavily on running the football to move the ball and score points because Riley Leonard just isn't a very good passer.  Well, running lanes will be non-existent against Ohio State.  The Buckeyes rank 5th in the country allowing 89.9 rushing yards per game and 2nd allowing 2.7 yards per carry.  Their ability to stop the run will be the difference in this game because Leonard isn't going to beat them with his arm.  Bet Ohio State in the National Championship Game.

20* Ohio State/Texas Cotton Bowl No-Brainer on Ohio State -6

Note: I also really like a 6-point teaser with Penn State +8.5/Ohio State PK for the playoff semifinals.  Make sure to check all your books to see what the best price is on a Penn State +8.5 alternate line and Ohio State ML parlay is instead of laying -120 on a 6-point teaser.  Bet whatever price is better.  The alternate line +8.5/ML parlay is currently -106 at DK and -110 at Fanduel as of this writing.

Ryan Day, Chip Kelly and the Ohio State Buckeyes learned from their loss to Michigan in the regular season finale.  They decided to open it up and let Will Howard cook in the passing game in the 12-team playoff, and it has worked wonders with all of their playmakers on the outside.

The Buckeyes crushed Tennessee 42-17 and jumped on the Vols early with a 21-0 lead after the first quarter.  They threw for 317 yards for the game and actually took their foot off the gas late with the game already in hand, or it could have been worse.

The same thing happened against Oregon last round as the Buckeyes blitzed the Ducks jumping out to a 34-8 lead at halftime.  Will Howard threw three touchdown passes of 40-plus yards in the first half and Henderson popped a 66-yard run after.  They took their foot off the gas in the 2H or it would have been worse than a 41-21 final.  This just goes to show how potent Ohio State could be for four quarters if they actually have their foot on the gas for all four.

Texas benefited from a very easy regular season schedule.  The Longhorns lost both meetings with Georgia when they had to step up in class.  And they have been fortunate to make it this far in the 12-team playoff.

Texas only led Clemson by 7 in the 4th quarter before a 77-yard run clinched a 38-24 victory.  Cade Klubnik kept coming throwing for 336 yards and 3 TD against Texas to expose their secondary, which is something I believe Howard can do as well.

Texas had no business beating Arizona State last round.  The Longhorns were actually outgained 510 to 375 by the Sun Devils, or by 135 total yards.  But ASU failed in the red zone and in the kicking game which was the difference.  They threw for 296 yards and rushed for 214 on this Texas defense despite being without their best receiver.

The Longhorns were held to 53 rushing yards on 30 carries by Arizona State.  And that is going to be a problem for them against this Ohio State defense.  The Buckeyes have the best defense in the country ranking 1st in scoring defense at 12.1 points per game, 1st in total defense at 244.6 yards per game and 1st at 4.0 yards per play.  They allow just 92.2 rushing yards per game and 2.7 per carry.  

Texas isn't going to have any success on the ground, and Quinn Ewers is one of the most overrated QB's in the country in my opinion.  He was exposed twice against Georgia this season, and he'll be exposed against Ohio State again here.  Ohio State's balance on offense will also be a big difference in this contest with Howard having another big game through the air.  The Buckeyes have no weaknesses.  They roll again.  Bet Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl Friday.

20* Notre Dame/Penn State Orange Bowl No-Brainer on Penn State +2.5

Note: I also really like a 6-point teaser with Penn State +8.5/Ohio State PK for the playoff semifinals.  Make sure to check all your books to see what the best price is on a Penn State +8.5 alternate line and Ohio State ML parlay is instead of laying -120 on a 6-point teaser.  Bet whatever price is better.  The alternate line +8.5/ML parlay is currently -106 at DK and -110 at Fanduel as of this writing.

The Penn State Nittany Lions have a big rest and preparation advantage over Notre Dame.  The Nittany Lions played on Tuesday last week while the Fighting Irish had their game pushed back a day due to the terrorist situation in New Orleans.  They played on Thursday, so the Nittany Lions have a two-day rest advantage.

In a game that is close to a toss up, I'll take any advantage I can get.  I like the fact that Penn State coaches and players got to watch Notre Dame play on Thursday night.  They would have been paying as close attention as any game they have watched other than their own all season.

James Franklin is quickly proving he can win big games with two impressive wins in the 12-team playoff.  The Nittany Lions won 38-10 over SMU as 9-point home favorites and a 31-14 over Boise State as 11.5-point favorites on a neutral.  They have played the tougher schedule which ranks 33rd in the country.

Their defense continues to shine ranking 7th in scoring defense allowing 15.8 points per game, 4th in total defense at 288.8 yards per game and 7th at 4.6 yards per play.  Their offense is the best of the Franklin era ranking 10th in the country at 6.6 yards per play with tremendous balance behind first-year coordinator Andy Kotelnicki from Kansas.

Notre Dame has benefited from playing the 54th-ranked schedule in the country.  The Fighting Irish also benefited from getting to play an overrated Indiana team in the opening round and a Georgia team that was missing their starting QB.  I think the Irish are grossly overvalued after going a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

A turnover at the 2-yard line followed by a 98-yard run by Jeremiyah Love changed the complexion of that Indiana game early.  A sack fumble followed by a TD right before half on a short field changed the complexion of the Georgia game.  That was followed up by a 98-yard kickoff return TD by Notre Dame coming out of intermission which completely changed the game.

As you can see, big plays by Notre Dame were the reasons for their first two wins in the playoffs.  I don't see them getting those kinds of big plays against a well-coached, stout defense like Penn State.  The Fighting Irish only had 14 first downs and 244 total yards against Georgia.  They have a great defense, but their offense is a weakness.

QB Riley Leonard is known more for what he can do with his legs than his arm.  He threw for just 90 yards on 24 attempts against Georgia.  Star RB Love (1,076 yards, 16 TD) is clearly hobbled and rushed for only 19 yards on 6 carries against Georgia.  He won't get the benefit of extra rest considering he has just six days off in between games.  Not to mention the Fighting Irish are without their best DL Rylie Mills (7.5 sacks), who got hurt against Indiana.

I think these teams are pretty evenly-matched defensively, but the difference is the Nittany Lions have more playmakers on offense and a QB that can actually stretch the field.  They have two 1,000-yard rushers and a 1,000-yard receiver in star TE Tyler Warren.  The Nittany Lions will bottle up Leonard and Love and that will be the difference in this game.  Bet Penn State in the Orange Bowl Thursday.

20* Buffalo/Liberty Bahamas Bowl No-Brainer on Buffalo ML -127

Sometimes bowl games are all about motivation.  And I have no doubt Buffalo is going to be the more motivated team in the Bahamas Bowl against Liberty.  They will also be the better team considering all the players that Liberty is missing.

Expectations were very low for Buffalo this season.  First-year head coach Pete Lembo took over a 3-9 team and turned the Bulls into a contender in the MAC despite being picked by most to finish near the bottom of the conference.  The Bulls went 8-4 this season with all four losses coming to bowl teams in Ohio, WMU, UConn and Missouri.  They also beat fellow bowl teams NIU and Toledo, who both won their bowl games.  Those six bowl teams went a combined 5-1 in bowl games.

Liberty failed to even make the championship game of the worst conference in the country in C-USA.  They were odds-on favorites to win the conference coming in.  They lost to Sam Houston State in their regular season finale, needed OT to beat a terrible UMass (2-10) team, and had several other questionable efforts throughout the season including an outright loss to Kennesaw State (2-10).  They also needed OT to beat awful FIU (4-8).

The biggest loss for the Flames is QB Kaidon Salter, who left for Colorado to try and take the place of Shedeur Sanders.  Three starters along the offensive line hit the transfer portal, as did starting DL Dixon and DL Nairne.  Former App State transfer Ryan Burger will start at QB.  All six players in the portal won't play in the bowl game and head coach Jamey Chadwell said he expects more opt-outs.  Starting S Quinton Reese and starting TE Bentley Hanshaw didn't play in the finale due to injuries.

Meanwhile, Buffalo has the exact same depth chart for the bowl game as it did in the regular season finale.  The Bulls went 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their final four games outscoring those opponents by a combined 67 points. Their offense is humming scoring 37 or more points in five of their last six games.  They want to be here and the Flames don't.  I also believe the Bulls are the better team in their current state.  Bet Buffalo on the Money Line in the Bahamas Bowl Saturday.

20* Minnesota/Virginia Tech Mayo Bowl No-Brainer on Minnesota -7

PJ Fleck is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in bowl games as the head coach at Minnesota.  Few coaches take bowl games more seriously than Fleck does.  And I expect him to have his guys ready to go for the Mayo Bowl against Virginia Tech Friday.

The Gophers have been an undervalued commodity all season going 7-5 SU & 9-2-1 ATS in all games this season.  They aren't the most flashy team, but they do have the best passing game they've had in a long time, and they are still great on defense and in the running game which is the case every year under Fleck.

QB Max Brosmer was a great addition in the transfer portal.  He is completing 66.8% of his passes for 2,617 yards with a 17-to-5 TD/INT ratio.  The Gophers have scored at least 24 points in six of their last eight games and finished strong, going 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their final seven games.  That includes a 1-point loss to Penn State and a 7-point loss at Rutgers.  They beat Wisconsin by 17 on the road, Illinois by 8 on the road, Maryland by 25 at home, UCLA by 4 on the road and USC by 7 at home.

Minnesota has yet another elite defense ranking 12th in the country allowing 17.5 points per game and 7th in total defense at 290.9 yards per game.  The Gophers will likely have a few players sit including RT Phillip Daniels and OT Aireontae Ersery, but there losses aren't nearly as big as what Virginia Tech is dealing with.

Indeed, the Hokies will be missing a ton of starters.  They will be without starting LT Xavier Chaplin, starting C Braelin Moore, starting CB Mansoor Delane, starting S Mose Phillips, LB Sam Brumfield, LB Keli Lawson and RB Malachi Thomas.  DE Powell-Ryland, DT Peebles, WR Felton, WR Lane and CB Strong have all opted out.

That doesn't even include the fact that the Hokies will be missing their two best players on offense in QB Drones and RB Tuten.  Tuten, RG Moore, DT Pene and SS Jenkins all weren't spotted at a recent practice, so the Hokies could be down as many as 14 starters.  It will either be backup QB Schlee or Pop Watson at QB.  What a mess.  Bet Minnesota in the Mayo Bowl Friday.

15* North Texas/Texas State First Responder Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Texas State -13.5

This is much more of a fade of North Texas than a play on Texas State.  The players the Mean Green will be missing in this game will be too much to overcome, and I fully expect them to get blown out by the Bobcats in the First Responder Bowl.

North Texas QB Chandler Morris has left for Virginia.  He is completing 63.1% of his passes for 3,774 yards with a 31-to-12 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 242 yards and four TD.  That leaves true freshman Drew Mestemaker to start in his place, and those are some massive shoes to fill considering Mestermaker has only attempted five passes all season.

But that's not where it ends.  Leading WR DT Sheffield (66 receptions, 822 yards, 11 TD) has committed to Rutgers.  Starting T Oscar Hammond (19, 238 1 TD) has committed to ORegon State.  Starting C Tyler Mercer and starting LG Leke Asenuga are also both out.  Starting OT Larry Moore is out with an injury.  The Mean Green will be relying on a ton of freshmen on offense, and I just don't think they'll have the firepower to keep up with Texas State.

That's especially the case considering Texas State has an explosive offense and will be up against one of the worst defenses they've seen all season in the Mean Green.  North Texas ranks 121st in scoring defense at 34.5 points per game, 127th in total defense at 456.6 yards per game and 108th at 6.1 yards per play.

Texas State only allows 24.2 points per game, 347.9 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play to compare, so they have by far the superior defense.  The Bobcats went 7-5 SU this season but were much better than that record would indicate.  Four of their five losses came by one score, and the other was a 10-point loss.  That includes a 3-point loss to Arizona State, which made the four-team playoff.

The Bobcats will only for sure be without three starters to the transfer portal and possibly five or six.  The biggest of note is RB Ismail Mahdi (991 yards, 4 TD, 5.4/carry).  But backup RB's Pare (404 yards, 6 TD, 5.5/carry) and Burgess (344 yards, 2 TD, 6.4/carry) are ready to fill his shoes.  

There are rumors QB Jordan McCloud may not play significant snaps since I released this play, but backup RJ Martinez is an intriguing transfer from Baylor.  He has completed 18-of-24 passes this season.  Whoever is under center will have three 600-yard receivers at his disposal as none of the receivers have opted out.

North Texas went 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in its final six games of the season.  The Mean Green needed a 24-17 win at lowly Temple (3-9) in their finale just to make a bowl game.  They stand no chance of keeping this game competitive without Morris, Sheffield and several others.  Bet Texas State in the First Responder Bowl Friday.

20* Ohio State/Oregon Rose Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 55

This is a rematch from a 32-31 win by Oregon on October 12th.  Honestly, the 63 combined points was about the minimum they could have scored when you look at the box score.  Oregon had 496 total yards and Ohio State had 467, so they combined for 953 total yards.  There were four field goals including three of 27 yards or fewer.  And Ohio State should have had another FG to win the game but mismanaged the clock in the closing seconds.

It was one of Will Howard's best games of the season for Ohio State as he went 28-of-35 passing for 326 yards and two touchdowns in the loss.  Dillon Gabriel went 23-of-34 passing for 341 yards and 2 TD in the win.  Both teams have weaknesses in the secondary that will be exploited again in the rematch.

Ohio State got conservative late in the season.  Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly made the proper adjustments heading into the playoffs and opened it up against a very good Tennessee defense.  The Buckeyes put up 21 points in the 1st quarter before anyone could blink in a 42-17 win over Tennessee.  Howard finished 24-of-29 passing for 311 yards and 2 TD with one INT against that stout Tennessee defense.  Kelly and Howard will keep their foot on the gas this week.

Oregon got a much-needed bye after an ugly win at Wisconsin.  The Ducks came out of that bye with their hair on fire on offense.  They blasted Washington 49-21 before topping Penn State 45-37 in a shootout in the Big Ten Championship Game.  It's tough to get in a shootout with Penn State because they are suspect on offense and elite on defense.  It just goes to show what Oregon is capable of on offense, and their their defense is overrated.

Penn State managed 518 total yards against Oregon.  Of course, Ohio State put up 467 yards on the Ducks in that first meeting.  Their defense is definitely their weakness.  But Oregon is elite on offense. They Ducks rank 13th in scoring at 35.9 points per game, 14th in total offense at 449.8 yards per game and 15th at 6.6 yards per play.  That's impressive playing in the rugged Big Ten.

Oregon has scored at least 31 points in 11 of its last 12 games and will likely get to 31 or more here.  I expect Ohio State to get into the 30's as well in what will be another shootout as neither defense has an answer for these two elite offenses, especially now that the Buckeyes have opened things up.  Bet the OVER in the Rose Bowl Wednesday.

20* Boise State/Penn State Fiesta Bowl No-Brainer on Boise State +11

From a line value perspective there's clearly value on Boise State.  Penn State just hosted SMU and was a 9-point favorite at home.  That game was played in extremely cold weather against a warm weather team in the Mustangs.  I believe Boise State is better than SMU, especially considering as of this writing the ACC is 1-9 SU & 0-10 ATS in bowl games now.

Now Penn State is an 11-point favorite over Boise State on a neutral in Glendale, AZ where the Broncos will have the majority of the fans.  This line is way out of whack and it should be Penn State -7 or less.  I'll gladly take the value and back the Broncos, who also have the rest and preparation advantage after getting a bye into the quarterfinals.

Boise State is 12-1 SU this season with its only loss coming 37-34 at Oregon, which remains unbeaten and the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  That game was every bit as close as the final score indicated as the Broncos actually outgained the Ducks 369 to 352 for the game.

Boise State also beat Washington State 45-24 back when Washington State was good.  The Broncos also beat UNLV twice this season having to beat them in the Mountain West Championship Game to make the four-team playoff.  That's a very good UNLV team that is also grossly undervalued.

Penn State has always struggled in big games under James Franklin.  Franklin is 3-19 SU against Top 10 teams as Penn State's head coach, including 1-14 SU against Top 5 teams.  Just this season alone the Nittany Lions lost 20-13 at home to Ohio State and 45-37 on a neutral to Oregon.  That gives these teams a common opponent as Boise State lost 37-34 to Oregon, but that was on the road in Eugene, which is a huge difference.  Penn State got to play Oregon in Big Ten country in Indianapolis.

I also think Penn State's misleading 38-10 win over SMU in the opening playoff game is giving them too much respect here.  Their first two scores of the game were pick-6's that totally changed the game.  It looked like SMU was going to score and take the lead twice early, but the two pick 6's flipped it.  Penn State only had 325 total yards against a shaky SMU defense.  The Mustangs were also missing several key players that led to their success during the regular season.

Boise State has tremendous balance even though star RB Ashton Jeanty gets all the credit.  The Broncos rank 3rd in scoring offense at 39.1 points per game, 6th in total offense at 470.2 yards per game and 6th at 6.8 yards per play.  They average 250.5 rushing yards per game and 6.3 per carry, which ranks 5th and 2nd respectively, but they also throw for 219.6 yards per game and 7.5 per attempt.  

The strength of their defense is stopping the run which makes this a good matchup for them against run-heavy Penn State.  The Broncos allow 115.1 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry this season.  They also create a lot of havoc in opposing backfields.  Bet Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl Tuesday.

25* Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Baylor ML -115

The Baylor Bears are quietly playing as well as almost anyone in the country heading into bowl season.  They were a hail mary and OT loss to Colorado away from playing in the Big 12 Championship Game, and may very well be the actual best team in the Big 12.

The Bears are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall beating Texas Tech by 24 on the road, Oklahoma State by 10 at home, TCU by 3 at home, West Virginia by 14 on the road, Houston by 10 on the road and Kansas by 28 at home.  That win over the Jayhawks in the regular season finale was mighty impressive considering Kansas was 5-6 on the season and desperate to get to a bowl game after beating both BYU and Colorado the previous two weeks.

This Baylor offense is hitting on all cylinders.  The Bears have scored at least 37 points in five of their last six games while averaging 41.3 points per game and 505.5 yards per game in their last six games.  They have tremendous balance and play at a break-neck pace.  Sawyer Robinson is one of the most underrated QB's in the country.  He has thrown for 2,626 yards with a 26-to-7 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 227 yards and four scores on the ground.

Baylor has very few key players in the transfer portal and very few injuries.  They are expected to get a pair of LB's back from injury as well who missed the finale.  Head coach Dave Aranda was the defensive coordinator at LSU when they won the National Championship.  He would love nothing more than to beat his former team.

While Baylor is going to have basically all hands on deck, LSU is going to be missing several key players.  Both starting offensive tackles in Will Campbell and Emery Jones as well as TE Mason Taylor (55 receptions, 546 yards, 2 TD) have declared for the NFL Draft.  Leading WR Kyren Lacy (58 receptions, 866 yards, 9 TD) has opted out and fourth-leading WR CJ Daniels (42 receptions, 480 yards) has committed to Miami.  Starting S Sage Ryan has committed to Ole Miss and fellow S Major Burns has opted out.

LSU will start three freshmen along the offensive line, and freshman Trey'Dez Green is the only scholarship TE available.  I think head coach Brian Kelly is much more concerned with locking in his roster for next season than he is about winning a bowl game, plus he doesn't have the horses to win it anyway.  

The Tigers finished 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their final five games this season with their two wins coming at home over Vanderbilt by 7 and Oklahoma by 20, while losing by 15 at Texas A&M, by 29 at home to Alabama and by 11 at Florida.  Baylor wants to be here more and has the more talented roster in its current state.  The Bears will also have the home-field advantage with this game being played in Houston, TX.  Bet Baylor on the Money Line in the Texas Bowl Tuesday.

15* South Carolina/Illinois Citrus Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Illinois +10

The Illinois Fighting Illini flew under the radar all season going 9-3 SU & 8-3-1 ATS.  They continue flying under the radar as double-digit underdogs to the South Carolina Gamecocks in the Citrus Bowl.

Illinois played everyone tough this season except for the No. 1 team in the country in Oregon on the road.  They also lost by 14 at Penn State in a game that was tied 7-7 midway through the 3rd quarter.  They also lost by 8 to Minnesota in what was a favorable rest spot for the Gophers.

The only opt-out for Illinois is WR Pat Bryant.  Head coach Bret Bielema said he doesn't expect any other opt-outs.  RG Zy Crisler is in the transfer portal but will play, as well WR Kenari Wilcher.  The Fighting Illini are in great shape heading into this bowl game.

South Carolina went 9-3 SU & 9-3 ATS this season and was grossly undervalued all year as well.  And with the upset of Clemson in the season finale, the Gamecocks come into this bowl game getting a ton of respect.  They are overvalued as double-digit favorites as this line should be much closer to 3 than 10.  They also get respect because they are in the SEC.

The Gamecocks have two big opt-outs in DE Kyle Kennard and RB Rahiem Sanders.  Sanders is a huge loss because he is a great back who refuses to go down.  He rushed for 881 yards and 11 TD this season.  Kennard will be a top draft pick after registering 11.5 sacks and forcing four fumbles.  He is their best player on defense.  

The Fighting Illini haven't won a bowl game since 2011 so they will be max motivated.  Bet Illinois in the Citrus Bowl Tuesday.

20* BYU/Colorado Alamo Bowl No-Brainer on BYU +4

If both teams had all hands on deck, I'd still like BYU +4.  But while BYU has pretty much all hands on deck for this Alamo Bowl, there are big time questions surrounding Colorado's star players even though they've said they will play.  But how long they play is another story.  

I can't see QB Shedeur Sanders and Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter risking their future by playing the entire game.  So it would just be an added bonus if they decide to sit out after starting the game.  WR Jimmy Horn, WR LaJohntay Webster, WR Will Shepard and DT Chidozie Nwankwo are also potential opt-outs.  LB Nikhai Hill-Green signed with Alabama, while CB Preston Hodge and DL Amari McNeil are injured.  RT Philip Houston and RB Isaiah Augustave both missed the finale, and WR Jimmy Horn missed the last couple games.

BYU should only be without one starter due to opt-out, which is S Crew Wakley.  LB Harrison Tarrart missed the finale by is on the bowl depth chart.  It looks like BYU will have their entire defense available except for Wakley.  There have been some shakeups on the O-Line due to injury, but they will be healthier there than they were in the finale.  WR Darius Lassiter will play but will sit out the first half due to an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty.

BYU went 10-2 this season with its two losses coming by 5 at Arizona State and by 4 at home to Kansas.  The Cougars easily could have won both games as they had the ball in the final seconds looking to take the lead deep in ASU and KU territory.  Colorado went 9-3 and benefited from playing one of the easiest schedules in the Big 12.  They caught teams are the right times as well.

There are 5 common opponents between BYU and Colorado this season.  BYU played Arizona and Baylor very similarly to Colorado in winning both games, but BYU was much better against Kansas and Kansas State than Colorado was.  Colorado went 0-2 against those two while getting outscored by 19 points, while BYU went 1-1 against those two and outscored them by 25 points.

I know BYU head coach Kalani Sitake will have the Cougars ready to play and they are happy and motivated to be here.  The Cougars missed out on a bowl game last year for the first time since 2017, and they have only missed two bowl games since 2005.  They will be more than happy making a bowl and going for their 11th win of the season.

I suspect Colorado is more interested in hitting the transfer portal hard with Deion Sanders and company.  There are a lot of distractions with Shedeur Sanders potentially the No. 1 overall pick and having the Heisman Trophy winner in Hunter.  But that just puts and even bigger target on their back, and you can bet BYU is licking its chops at the opportunity to take them down.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet BYU Saturday.

20* Iowa State/Miami Pop-Tarts Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 55.5

The Miami Hurricanes are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 8-3-1 OVER in all games this season with 56 or more combined points in 10 of their 12 games.  That makes for a 10-2 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 55.5-point total.

They went for 80 combined points with Syracuse, 84 with Duke, 97 with Louisville, 77 with Cal and 72 with Virginia Tech in five of their last eight games.  Iowa State's strength is on offense with Rocco Becht and elite receivers on the outside.  The Cyclones average 30.2 points per game and should be able to match Miami score for score.

The key here is that neither team has many players missing this game.  Even Heisman finalist Cam Ward said he would play for Miami.  WR Xavier Restrepo hasn't decided as of this writing.  I would imagine if Ward goes then everyone will follow suit.  The Hurricanes will likely be without CB Jadais Richard, CB Dyoni HIll and DE Elijah Alston due to injuries, though.

The Cyclones have injuries of their own on defense.  S Malik Verdon is unlikely to play.  LB Caleb Bacon isn't expected back from injury.  DE Tyler Onyedim is in the transfer portal, as are DE Kenard Snyder and DE Trent Jones.  They'll be trying to stop a Miami offense that ranks 1st in scoring at 44.2 points per game, 1st in total offense at 538.2 yards per game and 1st at 7.6 yards per play.

Iowa State and its opponents have combined for at least 59 points in five of its last nine games, including 51 or more in seven of those.  Arizona State, without its best receiver, just put up 45 points and 464 total yards on the Cyclones in the Big 12 Championship Game.  And Iowa State hasn't seen an offense nearly as potent as Miami all season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Texas Tech/Arkansas Liberty Bowl No-Brainer on Texas Tech +1.5

There is a lot going on with this bowl game between Texas Tech and Arkansas in terms of transfers and opt-outs.  But after going through them all, it clearly looks like Arkansas has more losses and bigger losses that they will have to deal with than Texas Tech does.

Arkansas will be without its top three receivers, its top two running backs, four starting offensive linemen, two starting defensive backs, a starting safety and a starting LB and three defensive linemen.  They are down to just six healthy scholarship offensive linemen.  It really seems like head coach Sam Pittman is almost punting on this bowl game at this point.

It's only fair that I list all the losses for Texas Tech as well.  They will be without starting QB Behren Morton, but I liked what I saw from freshman QB Will Hammond, who saw some action this season and impressed in the 2H against TCU.  Leading receiver Josh Kelly and starting T Ty Buchanan will be out, and the Red Raiders will also have two new coordinators.

But RB Tahj Brooks is listed as RB1 on the bowl depth chart, and it would be huge for them if he does give it a go.  Brooks rushed for 1,505 yards and 17 TD while averaging 5.3 per carry for the Red Raiders this season.

Arkansas will have starting QB Taylor Greene, but Texas Tech has been elite at defending dual-threat QB's this season.  I also like their momentum to finish the season going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their final four games including a 52-15 beat down of West Virginia in the finale.

Simply put, I think Texas Tech wants to be here more than Arkansas does and their personnel losses aren't nearly as big as the losses for the Razorbacks.  Head coach Joey McGuire clearly goes 'all in' for bowl games as he is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS at Texas Tech with a 42-25 win over Ole Miss as 3-point dogs in 2022 and a 34-14 win over Cal as 3-point favorites last year.  Bet Texas Tech Friday.

20* Georgia Tech/Vanderbilt Birmingham Bowl No-Brainer on UNDER 51.5

This game will be played at a snail's pace.  Vanderbilt ranks 130th out of 134 teams in tempo snapping the ball every 30.0 seconds.  Georgia Tech ranks 84th snapping the ball every 27.0 seconds.  There will be fewer possessions in this game than most, thus points will be very hard to come by.

The forecast is also good for the UNDER.  There are expected to be 10-15 MPH winds with a greater than 70% chance of precipitation at Protective Stadium in Birmingham, AL Saturday.

Both defenses have been pretty solid and are a big reason these teams had such successful seasons.  Vanderbilt allows 23.1 points per game while Georgia Tech allows 24.8 points per game.  While the Yellow Jackets have a pretty good offense, the Commodores do not, ranking 123rd in the country in total offense at 319.4 yards per game and 103rd at 5.3 yards per play.

But Georgia Tech's offense is going to be missing several key players that will hamper them on that side of the ball.  They will be without leading receiver Eric Singleton, who has 56 receptions for 754 yards and 3 TD on the season.  They will also be without LT Corey Robinson and backup LT Jordan Brown.  

The Commodores have very few opt-outs or transfers.  They will only possibly be missing three guys, but two of them are on offense in OT Gunnar Hansen and TE Eli Stowers, who leads the team with 45 receptions for 583 yards and 4 TD.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Oklahoma/Navy Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Navy +3

Navy QB Blake Horvath played the 2nd half of the season injured.  He finally got healthy for their last game and it has made all the difference for the Midshipmen, who have one of the most explosive offenses in school history this season.

Navy took on a East Carolina team that has won four in a row and in their second-to-last game and handled them 34-20.  The Midshipmen outgained the Pirates 458 to 350, or by 108 total yards. Horvath returned against Army in their finale to lead them to the Commander-in-Chief Trophy.  

The Midshipmen blasted the Black Knights 31-13 while outgaining them 378 to 178 for the game, or by 200 total yards.  Horvath rushed for 204 yards and 2 TD on 25 carries while also throwing for 107 yards and 2 TD in one of his best games of the season to show he is fully healthy heading into the bowl game.  They handed Army just their 2nd loss of the season.

Now the Midshipmen have their sights set on the Oklahoma Sooners in the Armed Forces Bowl, which will be a big home-field advantage for them in Fort Worth.  Oklahoma clearly isn't taking this game seriously with all their transfers and opt-outs, and the wrong team is favored here.

The Sooners will be without starting QB Jackson Arnold, five of their best receivers, their starting TE, two starting CB's and RB Jovantae Barnes.  They will also be without their two best defenders in LB Danny Stutsman and S Billy Bowman.  If WR Deion Burks cannot go, the Sooners' options at receiver will be eight freshmen for backup QB Michael Hawkins, who is more of a runner than a thrower.

This Oklahoma offense is absolutely dreadful and will be in worse shape than they have been all season heading into this bowl game.  The Sooners rank 120th in total offense at 322.8 yards per game, 126th at 4.8 yards per play and 94th in scoring at 24.3 points per game.  Nothing will come easy for them against Navy, which just held the best rushing team in the country in Army to 113 yards on 39 attempts.  Bet Navy Friday.

20* Arkansas State/Bowling Green Ventures Bowl Total DOMINATOR on OVER 50

Arkansas State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Red Wolves rank 19th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.8 seconds on offense.  They have one of the worst defenses in the country to go along with a decent offense.

The Red Wolves rank 66th in total offense at 385.9 yards per game.  They have solid balance averaging 159 rushing yards per game and 227 passing.  Their defense is dreadful, ranking 129th in the country allowing 461.6 yards per game and 131st allowing 6.9 yards per play.  They have almost no opt outs but will be without starting CB Dontay Joyder and DE Jayden Jones.

Bowling Green has minimal opt-outs.  Star TE Harold Fannin Jr. is going to be a first-round pick in the NFL Draft but decided to play.  That's huge for their offense as Fannin is not only the best TE in the country, but one of the best receivers overall.  He has 100 receptions for 1,342 yards and 9 TD this season.  He needs 11 receiving yards and 12 receptions to break the all-time records for tight ends, and I think QB Connor Bazelak will force feed him against this awful Arkansas State defense.

We've seen what this Bowling Green offense is capable of scoring at least 27 points in eight of its 12 games this season.  That includes 27 points against Penn State and 20 against Texas A&M, which is very impressive against those two defenses.  I think the Falcons can do the heavy lifting here, and I expect Arkansas State to have enough success on offense to get this thing up and OVER this short total of 50. Bet the OVER in the Ventures Bowl Thursday.

15* Arkansas State/Bowling Green Ventures Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Bowling Green -7

Bowling Green has minimal opt-outs.  Star TE Harold Fannin Jr. is going to be a first-round pick in the NFL Draft but decided to play.  That's huge for their offense as Fannin is not only the best TE in the country, but one of the best receivers overall.  He has 100 receptions for 1,342 yards and 9 TD this season.  He needs 11 receiving yards and 12 receptions to break the all-time records for tight ends, and I think QB Connor Bazelak will force feed him against this awful Arkansas State defense.

We've seen what this Bowling Green offense is capable of scoring at least 27 points in eight of its 12 games this season.  That includes 27 points against Penn State and 20 against Texas A&M, which is very impressive against those two defenses.  They nearly upset both of those teams losing by 7 to Penn State and by 6 to Texas A&M both on the road.

Arkansas State is one of the most fraudulent bowl teams I've ever seen.  The Red Wolves average 385.9 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play on offense, while allowing 461.6 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play on defense.  They are getting outgained by 76 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play on the season, which are numbers that you would see from a 3-9 or 4-8 team rather than one that is 7-5 like the Red Wolves.

We've seen Arkansas State get waxed when they have stepped up in class this season.  They lost 52-7 to Iowa State, 41-9 to Texas State and 55-19 to Louisiana.  I think they get waxed one last time here against a motivated Bowling Green team that will have all hands on deck.  Arkansas State head coach Butch Jones has stated he's more focused on next season than this bowl game with many of his comments leading up to it.  Bet Bowling Green in the Ventures Bowl Thursday.

15* Rutgers/K-State Rate Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Rutgers +7

Greg Schiano is one of the best bowl coaches in college football.  He has led Rutgers to a 6-2 record in bowl games in his coaching career.  I'm certainly liking taking the +7 with the Scarlet Knights here against the Kansas State Wildcats in the Rate Bowl given Schiano's track record.

I also like the fact that Rutgers hardly has any opt-outs or transfers.  Several players who were expected to opt out have said they are going to play in the bowl game.  The only big loss is their defensive coordinator, but they may be better off with Schiano calling the defensive plays anyways.

Rutgers finished strong going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its final four games and nearly went 4-0 blowing a lead in the final seconds to Illinois.  They upset Minnesota 26-19 as 6.5-point home dogs, upset Maryland as 3.5-point road dogs and upset Michigan State 41-14 as 1.5-point road dogs.

Kansas State has some big-time opt-outs and transfers.  Both RB DJ Giddens and CB Jacob Parrish have declared for the NFL Draft and will not play.  The loss of Giddens is a huge blow considering he has rushed for 1,343 yards and 7 TD while averaging 6.6 per carry.  He is almost their entire offense.  They will also be without RT Carver Willis and WR Keagan Johnson, who has 29 receptions for 359 yards and is their second-leading receiver just ahead of Giddens, who has 21 receptions for 258 yards.

Kansas State QB Avery Johnson has struggled with accuracy and turnovers.  He completes just 59.1% of his passes with a 22-to-9 TD/INT ratio.  He is a threat to run, and I think that Schiano will come up with the proper game plan to spy him and not allow him to run much.  The Wildcats have been overvalued all season going just 4-8 ATS in their 12 games, and I think they are being overvalued again here as a 7-point favorite against a Rutgers team that wants to be here.  The Wildcats have questionable motivation especially with all the opt-outs.  Bet Rutgers in the Rate Bowl Thursday.

15* Pitt/Toledo Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 49.5

From a tempo standpoint alone this total is too low.  Then you throw in the fact that it will be played in perfect conditions inside the dome at Ford Field and it's definitely too low.  There is tremendous value on the OVER 49.5 between Pittsburgh and Toledo in the GameAbove Sports Bowl Thursday.

Pittsburgh ranks 2nd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.4 seconds only trailing South Florida in that category.  The Panthers will be up against a Toledo team that ranks 13th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.4 seconds.  There are going to be a ton of possessions in this game, which means more opportunities for points.

The up-tempo offense has paid dividends for the Panthers who are scoring 31.8 points per game with their best offense of the Pat Narduzzi era.  But it has also led to some of the worst defensive numbers of the Narduzzi era, giving up 26.8 points per game this season.  Toledo likes to throw a lot of deep balls, and the Panthers' biggest weakness was against the deep ball this season.

Both teams have more important opt outs on defense than on offense.  Toledo will have its starting QB, and there's a chance Pitt will have its starting QB with Eli Holstein sitting the last few games due to injury, but he may return.  RB Desmond Reid will return after missing the finale with an injury.  Narduzzi said they should be healthier for their bowl game than they were in the regular season finale and expects at least 90% of his seniors to suit up.  He sounded optimistic about Holstein's chances.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* South Florida/San Jose State Hawaii Bowl No-Brainer on South Florida +4.5

South Florida head coach Alex Golesh has shown his hand about how much making a bowl game and performing in it means to him.  In his first season last year, the Bulls had to win their final game of the season to get bowl eligible.  They went on to beat Syracuse 45-0 as 3-point underdogs in the Boca Raton Bowl.

The Bulls needed another big finish this season to get bowl eligible.  They won four out of five games with their only loss coming to Navy, and the four wins all came by double-digits and by an average of 25.3 points per game.  Because they clinched bowl eligibility with one game remaining, it made their game against Rice in the regular season finale meaningless, and they played like it in a 35-28 defeat.

I think that loss to an underrated Rice team has them undervalued head heading into their bowl game.  Now they are catching 4.5 points against the San Jose State Spartans, who went 7-5 this season but I wasn't all that impressed with them down the stretch.  They lost three of their final five games with a 23-point loss at Fresno State and an 11-point home loss to UNLV where they were held to just 114 total yards.

Now the Spartans are going to be without their best player in WR Nick Nash, who has opted out of this bowl game to get ready for the NFL.  Nash may be the best receiver in the country and is irreplaceable for the Spartans.  He has 104 receptions for 1,382 yards and 16 TD this season.  Defensively, the Spartans could be without both starting CB's in DJ Harvey and Michael Dansby, who are in the transfer portal.

I don't think the Spartans have the firepower to keep up with South Florida in this one without Nash.  The Bulls averaged 50.0 points per game and 565.7 total yards per game in their final three games of the season.  They play at the fastest tempo in the country snapping the ball every 20.2 seconds.  They wear down their opponents, and they will wear down this San Jose State defense for four quarters.

South Florida has great balance ranking 28th in rushing at 191.2 yards per game and 69th in passing at 226.8 yards per game.  But their bread and butter is running the football and has been down the stretch.  That makes this a great matchup for them up against a San Jose State defense that allowed 170 or more rushing yards in six of their final nine games this season.  Bet South Florida in the Hawaii Bowl Tuesday.

25* CFB Bowl TOTAL OF THE YEAR on USF/San Jose State OVER 61.5

The South Florida Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 20.2 seconds.  They play a San Jose State team that also plays super fast, ranking 11th in tempo at 23.4 seconds in between snaps.  It's safe to say the Hawaii Bowl will see as many possessions as any bowl game this season, and thus more opportunities for points in what should be one of the highest scoring games of bowl season.

The OVER is 5-1 in South Florida's last six games overall.  The Bulls combined for 60 points with UAB, 65 points with FAU, 83 points with Charlotte, 93 points with Tulsa and 63 points with Rice.  In their final three games of the season, the Bulls averaged 50.0 points per game and 565.7 total yards per game.

San Jose State boasts a high-octane passing attack.  The Spartans rank 5th in passing at 325.2 yards per game.  They'll be up against a San Jose State defense that ranks 128th allowing 278.7 passing yards per game and 119th allowing 436.6 total yards per game.

Both teams have key defenders in the transfer portal who may not play.  San Jose State could be without both starting CB's DJ Harvey and Michael Dansby, while South Florida could be without starting S Tawfiq Byard and starting DT Doug Blue-Eli.  Bet the OVER in the Hawaii Bowl Tuesday.

15* Northern Illinois/Fresno State Potato Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Northern Illinois -3

Fresno State has been hit as hard as almost anyone in terms of starters who won't be playing either due to the transfer portal or opt outs.  The Bulldogs will be without starting QB Mikey Keene, two starting WR's in Jalen Moss and Raylen Sharpe, three starting CB's in Alzillion Hamilton, Julian Neal and Cam Lockridge, two starting DT's in Gavriel Lightfoot and Jacob Holmes and starting LB Phoenix Jackson.

So the Bulldogs have been decimated especially on defense.  There starting WR's for the bowl game have a combined four receptions, and they will be starting a backup QB.  Northern Illinois is a run-heavy team that will be able to exploit this decimated Fresno State defense.

The Huskies have plenty of transfers and opt outs of their own, but they haven't been hit as hard as Fresno State.  They will be without starting QB Ethan Hampton, starting WR Trayvon Rudolph, starting S Santana Banner, starting DT Skyler Gill-Howard and starting DE Jalonnie Williams due to the transfer portal.

Josh Hoist will start at quarterback and has some experience backing up Hampton when he got injured earlier this season.  He completed 47-of-81 passes while also rushing for 165 yards on 33 carries for an average of 5.0 per carry.  They will ride Hoist on the ground a lot in this one, and I think it will be a very effective game plan against this soft Fresno State defense.  Bet Northern Illinois Monday.

20* Clemson/Texas TNT No-Brainer on Clemson +12

No question Texas has an elite defense. But the Longhorns have struggled on offense ever since Quinn Ewers got hurt, and he still doesn't look right.  He fails to show up in big games and looked scared against Georgia and their backup QB in the SEC Championship Game.

Texas managed just 19 points against Georgia, 17 points against Texas A&M and 20 points against Arkansas in three of its final four games to close out the season.  If the Longhorns don't get to 30, which I don't think they will, it's going to be very hard for them to cover this 12-point spread.

Clemson played a tough schedule this season that included two SEC opponents in Georgia and South Carolina, so the Tigers won't be intimidated at all.  They will also be playing with a big chip on their shoulder because nobody thought they deserved to be here, and nobody plays the underdog role better than Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney.  He lives for situations like these.

Clemson put up 419 total yards on a very good South Carolina defense in their regular season finale.  They jumped out to a 24-7 halftime lead on SMU before taking their foot off the gas in the ACC Championship Game, but came up clutch with a game-winning FG in the final seconds.

I trust Clemson QB Cade Klubnik to make more plays than Ewers or whoever is under center for Texas.  Klubnik quietly had a fantastic season throwing for 3,303 yards with a 33-to-5 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 458 yards and seven scores.  Klubnik also has the mental advantage over Ewers after beating him 52-34 in the Texas Class 6A State Championship in high school.  Bet Clemson Saturday.

15* Indiana/Notre Dame ABC ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +7.5

The Indiana Hoosiers went 11-1 this season and flew under the radar all season.  They are flying under the radar again as 7.5-point underdogs to Notre Dame in the 12-team playoff.

Indiana ranks 2nd in scoring offense at 43.3 points per game and 6th in scoring defense at 14.7 points per game, outscoring opponents by 28.6 points per game on the season.  That is one of the best marks in the entire country.  They have no weaknesses and their numbers are elite across the board on both sides of the football.

Notre Dame also went 11-1 this season, but the Fighting Irish are getting much more credit heading into the 12-team playoff despite that only ranked 10 spots tougher than what Indiana faced.  The finished +26.2 points per game in scoring margin.

Notre Dame didn't have to face very many great offenses like Indiana this season.  When they did, they struggled against both Louisville and USC defending the pass.  They allowed 360 passing yards and 557 total yards to USC and 264 passing yards and 437 total yards to Louisville.

Notre Dame needs to be able to run the football to be successful, and Indiana is very stingy against the run.  Indeed, the Hoosiers rank 1st in the country allowing just 70.8 rushing yards per game and 2nd allowing 2.5 yards per rush.  Bet Indiana Friday.

20* Ohio/Jacksonville State Cure Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 54.5

The Ohio Bobcats will have everyone available for the Cure Bowl as of this writing just two days before the game against Jacksonville State on Friday.  Their offense really took off down the stretch leading them to the MAC Championship Game.

The Bobcats average 37.8 points per game during their six-game winning streak to close out the season.  And while I also like Ohio to win and cover, I like the OVER in this game more due to what Jacksonville State brings to the table on the other side.

Jacksonville State ranks 13th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.4 seconds.  The Jaguars have a high-powered offense that ranks 12th in scoring this season at 36.7 points per game.  They should have almost all hands on deck on offense.

Rich Rodriquez left for West Virginia, but offensive coordinator Rod Smith will serve as the interim so they'll still have their entire playbook on offense.  The same can be said for Ohio, where Tom Albin left for Charlotte, but offensive coordinator Brian Smith is the interim coach.  I love OVERS in bowl games when offensive coordinators take over as the interim, and we are getting that with both teams here.

Perhaps the biggest reason I'm on the OVER is because Jacksonville State has so many of their best defenders in the transfer portal, and last year players in the portal did not play for the Gamecocks.  They could be without S Zechariah Pyser (led defense in snaps), OLB Reginald Hughes (best pass rusher), S Fred Perry (1st-team C-USA), starting CB Jabari Mack and starting CB Fred Davis.  The only starter on offense in the portal is WR Cam Vaughn.

The forecast at Camping World Stadium in Orlando looks perfect for a shootout Friday.  Temps will be in the 70's with less than 10 MPH winds and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Cal/UNLV LA Bowl No-Brainer on UNLV PK

The UNLV Rebels went 10-3 this season with their losses coming to Boise State (twice) and Syracuse in OT.  Seven of their 10 wins came by double-digits as they were dominant against everyone else.

Syracuse is a common opponent, and Cal lost 33-25 at home to the Orange.  The Bears were outgained 471 to 391 by the Orange, or by 80 yards.

Cal will be without starting QB Fernando Mendoza, who is completing 68.7% of his passes on the season for 3,004 yards.  They could be without backup QB Chandler Rogers, who got hurt in their finale in a 38-6 loss at SMU.  It's no surprise Cal's worse performance of the season came without its starting QB in Mendoza. Plus, offensive coordinator Mike Bloesch is gone, and they will have a collaboration of staff calling plays.

Despite losing head coach Barry Odom, morale is still very high at UNLV with one of the best hires of the offseason in Dan Mullen.  Almost everyone for UNLV is expected to play, including two of their best defensive players in LB Jackson Woodard and CB Tony Grimes.  I think this team is on a mission to finish the Odom era strong as this is one of the most closely-knit teams in the country.  I expect them to get the job done against Cal and possibly a 3rd-string QB.  

It's also worth noting Cal leading receiver Nzyiah Hunter is in the transfer portal.  RB Jaivian Thomas sat out the last game against SMU with an injure.  LT Nick Morrow missed the finale and won't play in the bowl.  Starting LB Sioape Vatikani is questionable, as is starting MLB Cade Uluave, who missed the final three games.  

The Rebels haven't won a bowl game since 2000.  This group of players has accomplished a lot, but they want to put a stamp on it with their first bowl win in 24 years before many of them graduate or depart for different schools next season.  Bet UNLV in the LA Bowl Wednesday.

20* ISU/ASU Big 12 Championship No-Brainer on Iowa State +2.5

I could see this game listed at a PK if both teams were fully healthy.  But Arizona State lost one of its best players in WR Jordyn Tyson late in the win over Arizona last week, and now he is out for the season.  The Cyclones should be favored with no Tyson for ASU.

Tyson has 75 receptions for 1,101 yards and 10 TD for the Sun Devils this season.  In the last six games alone, Tyson has 50 receptions for 732 yards and 6 TD.  He leads the nation in receiving over the last nine weeks and just had 8 receptions for 143 yards against Arizona last week.

"What makes it more difficult is obviously he demands two people to cover him," head coach Kenny Dillingham said after praising the receiver for his run-blocking abilities. "So if people don't have to allocate two people, then they can load the box. So you got to find more creative ways to win those one-one-one matchups".

The two players tied for second on the team in targets aren't even wide receivers.  They are RB Cam Skattebo (35 receptions, 468 yards) and TE Chamon Metayer (28 receptions, 285 yards).  Both have 41 targets this season.

Iowa State's game plan was already going to be to load the box and try and stop Skattebo.  Their job gets 10X easier now knowing they don't have to deal with Tyson on the outside.  The Cyclones will load up to stop Skattebo, and I don't think QB Leavitt can beat them without Tyson.

Dillingham has done a tremendous job getting Arizona State to the Big 12 Championship despite being picked to finish last by the media.  This season is a success no matter what happens in this game.  I think the mentality is different for Matt Campbell and Iowa State.

Campbell has stated Big 12 Championships are the standard.  The Cyclones have come close in recent seasons and come up short to Oklahoma and Texas.  They no longer have to deal with those juggernauts and now have a golden opportunity to finally get that first elusive Big 12 championship, and I trust Campbell and company to make the right calls to make it happen against a team they can handle in ASU.  

Common opponents tell the story here which team is better.  Iowa State and Arizona State have six common opponents.  They are both 4-2 SU against them.  But the Cyclones have outgained those six teams by an average of 47 yards per game, while the Sun Devils have been outgained by 17 yards per game against those same six teams.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

25* CFB Conference Championship TOTAL OF THE YEAR on UNLV/Boise State UNDER 59.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  After meeting in the MWC Championship Game last season, and meeting once in the regular season this season, this will be the 3rd meeting between UNLV and Boise State in a year.  It's safe to say they know each other inside and out, and that really favors defense.

The matchup also sets up well for an UNDER.  Both teams rely heavily on running the football which keeps the clock moving.  Well, the strength of both defenses is stopping the run.  That was the takeaway from Boise State's 29-24 win in the first meeting this season that saw just 53 combined points.

The Rebels held Heisman Trophy contender Ashton Jeanty to 128 rushing yards on 33 carries, an average of just 3.9 yards per carry.  That 3.9 yards per carry was the lowest Jeanty averaged against any opponent all season. Holding Jeanty to 3.9 per carry was no fluke as UNLV is elite at stopping the run.  The Rebels rank 10th in the country allowing 101.1 rushing yards per game and 15th allowing 3.2 per carry this season.

UNLV also needs to be able to run the ball to be effective on offense.  The Rebels rank 4th in the country in rushing averaging 254.1 yards per game but just 116th in passing at 179.9 yards per game.  Well, Boise State ranks 17th in the country against the run allowing just 106.6 rushing yards per game.  The Broncos are also 19th allowing just 3.4 yards per carry.

That first meeting between UNLV and Boise State was played in a dome in Las Vegas on a fast track and still only saw 53 combined points.  The rematch will be outdoors in the cold at Boise State with temps in the 30's Friday night.  I don't think that is being factored into this line enough, and a total of 59.5 is way too high for the rematch.

UNLV and its opponents have gone for 58 or fewer combined points in five of its last six games.  Boise State and its opponents have gone for 53 or fewer points in five of its last seven games.  Boise State ranks 89th in tempo while UNLV ranks 78th, so both are well into the bottom half of the country in terms of seconds in between snaps on offense.  Both defenses will have their way.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

25* CFB Conference Championship GAME OF THE YEAR on UNLV +4.5

UNLV was at a huge disadvantage the first time they played Boise State back on October 25th.  They were on a short week while Boise State was coming off a bye week playing on a Friday night.  The Rebels gave the Broncos everything they wanted in a 29-24 loss as 4-point dogs.

There were some takeaways from that game that make me believe the Rebels can pull off the upset in the rematch.  For starters, the Rebels held Heisman Trophy contender Ashton Jeanty to 128 rushing yards on 33 carries, an average of just 3.9 yards per carry.  That 3.9 yards per carry was the lowest Jeanty averaged against any opponent all season.

UNLV could have easily packed it in after that loss to Boise State.  Instead, the Rebels have gone 4-0 since to put themselves back in position to make the 12-team playoff.  They are in a 'win and in' scenario now, and I think they are ready to finally take the leap and prove they belong.

Boise State has been fortunate not to get knocked off here down the stretch.  They beat Nevada 28-21 as 23.5-point home favorites four games ago.  They were outgained 483 to 456 by San Jose State in a misleading final three weeks ago.  They escaped with a 17-13 win at Wyoming as 22.5-point favorites two weeks ago.  And they failed to cover in a 34-18 home win over Oregon State as 17.5-point favorites last week.  They really should be 0-4 ATS in their last four games.

Holding Jeanty to 3.9 per carry was no fluke as UNLV is elite at stopping the run.  The Rebels rank 10th in the country allowing 101.1 rushing yards per game and 15th allowing 3.2 per carry this season.  And that's why this is such a great matchup for the Rebels because the Broncos need to be able to run the ball to be effective because QB Maddux Madsen and the passing game is the weakness.  

He only completing 45% of his passes against Nevada, 53.8% against Wyoming and 51.5% against Oregon State in three of his past four games.  UNLV has far and away the better QB in Hajj-Malik Williams.  He has a 17-to-4 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 768 yards and 9 TD on 5.9 per carry this season.  I trust Williams to make more plays than Maddux in the rematch.  Bet UNLV Friday.

15* Tulane/Army AAC Championship ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 47.5

No game this season will be played at a slow pace than this AAC Championship Game.  Army ranks dead last (134th) in tempo snapping the ball every 33.9 seconds.  Tulane ranks 131st snapping the ball every 30.1 seconds.  There won't be many possessions in this game, and thus there won't be many opportunities for points.

Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall is elite at stopping the triple-option.  He faced Army twice the last two years while at Troy and beat them 19-0 in 2023 and 10-9 in 2022.  He beat Navy 35-0 this season a couple weeks ago at Tulane.  So Sumrall has held the triple-option teams to a combined 9 points in three meetings over the last three seasons, or an average of 3.0 points per game.

Both offenses need to be able to run the ball to be effective, and both defenses are great at stopping the run.  Tulane averages 212.9 rushing yards per game, and Army only allows 103.0 rushing yards per game.  Army averages 312.5 rushing yards per game, and Tulane only allows 124.2 rushing yards per game.  Tulane held Navy to 100 rushing yards on 35 attempts and 113 total yards in that 35-0 victory.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* New Mexico/Hawaii MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on New Mexico -2.5

The New Mexico Lobos are 5-6 in Bronco Mendenhall's first season on the job.  Now they are one win away from bowl eligibility and will be highly motivated to get that all-important 6th victory.

While the Lobos are motivated, the Hawaii Warriors sit at 4-7 on the season and eliminated from bowl contention.  I don't like their mindset, especially after watching them get blasted by a mediocre Utah State team last time out.  They lost 55-10 at Utah State and allowed 580 yards to the Aggies with only 309 themselves, getting outgained by 171 yards.

They lost QB Brayden Schager late in that game to injury and he may not be able to play in this game due to injury.  Whether he plays or not, like New Mexico to win this game and cover.  I just don't think Hawaii is very good and they're definitely not in as good a frame of mind as the Lobos.

New Mexico has one of the best offenses in the country.  They score 33.8 points per game while ranking 4th in total offense at 484.5 yards per game and 7th at 7.0 yards per play.  They have tremendous balance rushing for 249 yards per game and throwing for 236 yards per game behind one of the best dual-threat QB's in the country in Dampier.

Hawaii ranks 78th against the run allowing 153 yards per game and 87th allowing 4.5 yards per carry.  Their run D has been particularly poor of late, allowing 290 rushing yards to UNLV and 321 to Utah State in their last two games.  They definitely let go of the rope against Utah State, and they will let go of it again if New Mexico gets an early lead.  Bet New Mexico Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Air Force -3.5

Air Force has been a different team down the stretch.  The Falcons are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They upset Fresno State 36-28 as 9.5-point home dogs, upset Oregon State 28-0 as 3-point home dogs and upset Nevada 22-19 as 3-point road dogs.

While the Falcons are improving a ton defensively, it's the fact that they have found a running game that has made them more competitive.  Air Force rushed for 344 yards on Fresno State, 270 yards on Oregon State and 318 yards on Nevada.

That's bad news for San Diego State, which cannot stop the run here down the stretch and looks to have pretty much quit.  The Aztecs are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games.  They lost 56-24 at Boise State, 21-16 at home to New Mexico, 41-20 at UNLV and 41-20 at Utah State.

The Aztecs allowed 541 total yards including 219 rushing to Boise, then 300 rushing to New Mexico, 253 rushing to UNLV and 322 rushing to Utah State.  It's safe to say their defense cannot stop the run, and they are probably out of gas playing for a 6th consecutive week.  I give them almost zero chance of stopping this Air Force triple-option, which they haven't faced yet this season.  Bet Air Force Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UAB/Charlotte OVER 60

I like taking OVERS between two teams late in the season that have nothing but pride to play for because they have already been eliminated from bowl contention.  These games tend to be played much more loose and free with the offenses having the advantage over the defense.  This applies to UAB (3-8) and Charlotte (4-7) Saturday.

UAB is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Blazers play fast and they play no defense.  They rank 33rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 24.6 seconds.  They rank 121st in scoring defense allowing 34.7 points per game.  And UAB has played much better offensively since switching to Jalen Kitna at QB, averaging 428.2 total yards per game and 33 points per game in their last five games.  The OVER is 7-1-1 in UAB's last nine games overall with 54 or more combined points in all nine games.

Charlotte is also a team with a terrible defense.  The 49ers rank 124th in scoring defense allowing 35.8 points per game.  I think both offenses will have plenty of success even though these aren't two of the best offenses in the country.  Charlotte is 5-1 OVER in its last six games overall with 58 or more combined points in five of those six games.  There will be no wind or rain today in Charlotte so the forecast looks great for a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan State ML -125

I love the spot for the Michigan State Spartans Saturday.  They sit at 5-6 on the season and one win shy of bowl eligibility in Jonathan Smith's first season on the job.  The Spartans will be extra motivated to make a bowl and to get a win for their Seniors on Senior Day.

Rutgers is already bowl eligible at 6-5 on the season and won't be nearly as motivated.  I think it's a tough spot for the Scarlet Knights after blowing a 1-point lead in the final seconds at home in a 38-31 loss to Illinois.  They have played three straight hard-fought games the last three weeks against Illinois, Maryland and Minnesota and I question how much they'll have left in the tank here.

Michigan State has played a much tougher schedule than Rutgers this season.  The Spartans have played the 26th-ranked strength of schedule while the Scarlet Knights have played the 54th.  And Michigan State still has put up better numbers than Rutgers despite the tougher schedule.

The Spartans are dead even in yards per play differential averaging 5.4 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.4 per play on defense.  Rutgers is has a -0.7 yards per play differential, averaging 5.4 yards per play on offense but giving up 6.1 yards per play on defense.  The Spartans are the better team, have the motivational advantage and are at home here.  Bet Michigan State on the Money Line Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on NC State +3.5

I love the spot for NC State Saturday.  The Wolfpack sit at 5-6 on the season and one win away from bowl eligibility.  They are clearly fighting to become bowl eligible here down the stretch, and I like their mental state much better than that of North Carolina right now.

The Tar Heels sit at 6-5 this season and already bowl eligible.  Mack Brown has announced he is stepping down following a ugly 41-21 loss at Boston College last week.  The Tar Heels were outgained 480-212 by the Eagles, or by 268 total yards.  It really looked like they just quit, and I don't trust many of their players to show up Saturday with their futures in limbo now.

NC State took Wake Forest, Syracuse, Georgia Tech and Duke to the wire in four tough losses here down the stretch.  They also upset Cal on the road as 9-point dogs and blasted Stanford by 31 at home as 9.5-point favorites.  Last time out they only lost 30-29 as 7.5-point dogs at Georgia Tech, which beat Miami.  They actually outgained the Yellow Jackets in that game.

NC State should be the fresher team here after playing Georgia Tech last Thursday. They get an extra two days to prep for this game, and they also had a bye prior to that GT game.  They couldn't possibly be more fresh, more prepared and more focused for a win here.  I think they way they've fought down the stretch will pay off here with an outright win over a UNC team with questionable motivation.  Bet NC State Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Old Dominion/Arkansas State OVER 58.5

There are going to be a lot of possessions in this game between Old Dominion and Arkansas State Saturday because both play fast.  The Monarchs rank 12th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.4 seconds, while the Red Wolves rank 20th snapping it every 24.0 seconds.

Both defenses leave a lot to be desired.  Arkansas State ranks 109th allowing 31.5 points per game, 124th allowing 453.6 yards per game and 128th allowing 6.8 yards per play.  Old Dominion ranks 84th allowing 27.6 points per game, 106th allowing 410.5 yards per game and 87th allowing 5.8 yards per play.

This Old Dominion offense has been humming lately and will get whatever it wants against Arkansas State.  The OVER is 3-1 in Monarchas' last four games overall beating Georgia Southern 47-19 for 66 combined points behind 560 total yards, losing 28-20 at Appalachian State for 48 combined points despite gaining 498 yards, losing 35-32 to James Madison for 67 combined points and losing 42-35 to Marshall despite 513 total yards.

Arkansas State has gone OVER the total in three of its last five combining for 72 points with Southern Miss, 65 with Troy and 74 with Louisiana.  They did only combine for 49 points with Monroe, but the Warhawks play at the 2nd-lowest tempo in the country.

I think this game will be played freely with neither team having much to play for.  Old Dominion has been eliminated from bowl contention at 4-7.  Arkansas State has already clinched bowl eligibility at 7-4, but they have already been eliminated from Sun Belt Championship contention.  I like backing OVERS late in the season between two teams with nothing to play for.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Middle Tennessee/FIU OVER 51.5

I like taking OVERS between two teams late in the season that have nothing but pride to play for because they have already been eliminated from bowl contention.  These games tend to be played much more loose and free with the offenses having the advantage over the defense.  This applies to Middle Tennessee (3-8) and Florida International (3-8) Saturday.

I think we'll see a shootout today with both offenses opening up the entire playbook against two suspect defenses. The forecast looks great for a shootout in Florida with temps in the 70's, only 10 MPH winds and a small chance of precipitation.

Florida International ranks 76th in scoring defense at 25.9 points per game and 73rd allowing 370.4 yards per game.  Middle Tennessee ranks 119th in scoring defense allowing 34.2 points per game, 122nd allowing 447.9 yards per game and 126th allowing 6.6 yards per play.

Middle Tennessee is 8-3 to the OVER 51.5 on the season combining for 54 or more points with its opponents in eight of its 11 games.  FIU is 7-3 OVER in its last 10 games overall with 51 or more combined points in seven of those 10 games.  This is a very low total for a game involving these two teams with nothing to play for.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on South Florida/Rice OVER 53.5

The South Florida Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in the entire country in tempo and by a wide margin, snapping the ball every 20.5 seconds.  They have an elite offense and a vulnerable defense.  This total of 53.5 is very low for a game involving South Florida right now.

The Bulls have topped this total themselves in their last two games.  They beat Charlotte 59-24 for 83 combined points and racked up 425 rushing yards in the process.  They beat Tulsa 63-30 last week and racked up 715 total yards.  I don't expect them to take their foot off the gas against Rice this week, either.

Rice has a very good quarterback in EJ Warner.  The Owls have really been through a gauntlet of opposing defenses here down the stretch and have gone under the total in four of their last five.  I think that has provided us value to back an OVER in a game involving Rice, which I did last week with success in a 40-14 loss to UAB with a closing total of 51.5.

Rice ranks in the top half of the country in tempo at 64th, so there are going to be a ton of possessions in this game.  Neither team has anything to play for as USF clinched a bowl last week, while Rice sits at 3-8 on the season with an interim head coach.  I love taking OVERS late in the season when nothing is at stake because it tends to favor offense over defense as both teams are loose and playing freely.

South Florida and its opponents have combined for 55 or more points in eight of its last 10 games.  Rice and South Florida combined for 71 points in their meeting last season.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 60's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on UTSA +7

The UTSA Roadrunners are one of the most improved teams in the country from the first half of the season until now.  After a 1-4 start, they have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and really should be 5-0 during this stretch.

The wins have been impressive.  It started with a 38-24 home win over FAU as 4.5-point favorites.  They went on to blow a 28-point lead to Tulsa in their next game losing 46-45 as 9.5-point favorites.  They could have easily packed it in at that point, but they have responded as well as possible and that's a reflection of their head coach.

They beat Memphis 44-36 as 7-point home dogs, and that's a 10-2 Memphis team that just beat Tulane. They crushed North Texas 48-27 as 1.5-point home favorites and crushed Temple 51-27 as 17-point favorites.  Their defense is improving, but their offense is hitting on all cylinders averaging 45.2 points per game over their last five.

The spot is a terrible one for Army. The Black Knights opened 9-0 this season against one of the softest schedules in the country. They finally stepped up in class last week and got blasted 49-14 at Notre Dame.  That loss eliminated them from 12-team playoff consideration, and I think it's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

That's especially the case with Army knowing they already have a spot in the AAC Championship Game against Tulane clinched.  They will be looking forward to that game if anything, making this a sandwich spot for the Black Knights.  I don't like their mental state coming into this one.

I also love the matchup for UTSA.  They are terrible against the pass, but that won't matter against Army.  The Roadrunners rank 9th in the country against the run allowing 100.5 rushing yards per game and 11th nationally allowing just 3.1 yards per carry.  They are equipped to stop triple-option teams like Army.  This is a game I fully expect the Roadrunners to win outright, but getting +7 with them is an absolute gift.  Bet UTSA Saturday.

20* Nebraska/Iowa NBC No-Brainer on Nebraska +4

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have a huge weight lifted off their shoulders.  They were previously on a 0-9 run when sitting on five wins looking for their 6th and bowl eligibility the last several seasons.  They got that monkey off their back with a dominant 44-25 win over Wisconsin last week, and now I expect them to be playing loose and freely today against their hated rivals in the Iowa Hawkeyes.

The Hawkeyes were fortunate Maryland QB Billy Edwards got hurt in the 1st quarter of their 29-13 win at Maryland last week.  It changed the entire game.  That result is making Iowa a bigger favorite than they should be against Nebraska this week.  It's also a Terrapins team that looks to have quit on the season.

Nebraska has a huge advantage over Iowa at quarterback this week.  5-star QB Dillon Raiola is getting comfortable with Dana Holgorsen as his coordinator, and the Huskers racked up 473 total yards on the Badgers last week.  Iowa is down to third-string QB Jackson Stratton.  He went just 10-of-14 passing for 76 yards against Maryland last week.

Iowa needs to be able to run the football to have success.  I know Matt Rhule will do everything he can to stack the box to try and stop Kaleb Johnson, who had 35 carries against Maryland last week with a long of 13.  If they stop Johnson, I don't think Stratton is good enough to beat them.  

Each of the last six meetings between Nebraska and Iowa have been decided by one score.  And this is the best Huskers team during this stretch that the Hawkeyes will have to deal with this season.  This is not close to the best Iowa team during this stretch.  Bet Nebraska Saturday.

25* MWC GAME OF THE YEAR on Utah State +6

Utah State has been competitive in five of its last six games with the lone exception being a 49-28 loss at Washington State.  They only lost by 16 to UNLV, by 5 to New Mexico, beat Wyoming by 2, crushed Hawaii 55-10 and dominated San Diego State 41-20.  

Those last two games were very impressive.  The Aggies racked up 580 total yards on Hawaii and held them to just 309, outgaining them by 271 yards.  Hawaii had been playing very well going into that game.  They racked up 488 more yards against San Diego State last week.

While Utah State sits at just 4-7 on the season, I think they'll be treating this as their bowl game.  They could have packed it in a lot sooner if they wanted to, but it just goes to show the character of this team to finish the way they have.

This is a tough spot for Colorado State.  Their dreams of making the Mountain West Championship Game were all but crushed with a 28-22 loss at Fresno State last week.  Now they no longer control their own destiny, instead they'll need to win this game and have UNLV lose at home to Nevada as a near 3-touchdown favorite.  That's not going to happen and they know it.

But Colorado State has been living on borrowed time all season.  The Rams are actually getting outgained by nearly 7 yards per game on the season.  Utah State is only getting outgained by roughly 5 yards per game on the season to compare.  These teams are much closer to even than this line would indicate, and getting +6 with the Aggies is tremendous value today.  Bet Utah State Friday.

20* Miami Ohio/Bowling Green ESPNU Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 42.5

The forecast is a big reason for this play on the UNDER.  Temps will be around 30 with 20-25 MPH winds and gusts as high as 40 MPH.  There's a lot at stake with a trip to the MAC Championship on the line for both teams, so it will be played close to the vest.

Both teams play slow.  Bowling Green ranks 118th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 29.0 seconds.  Miami ranks 120th in tempo snapping the ball every 29.0 seconds as well.  There will be very few possessions in this game, and both teams are led by their defenses.

One of the best players in the country that not many know about is Bowling Green TE Harold Fannin.  He leads the entire country in receiving with 92 receptions for 1,294 yards and 9 TD.  Fannin is questionable to play Friday and my best guess is he won't be healthy enough to play.  

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 27, 30 and 41 combined points in the last three.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Memphis/Tulane ESPN No-Brainer on Memphis +14

It's time to 'sell high' on the Tulane Green Wave.  Tulane is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  It's safe to say this is the peak of the market on the Green Wave now.  They don't have a lot to play for this week as they are already locked into the AAC Championship Game against Army.  They aren't likely to make the 12-team playoff with Boise State controlling its own fate.

The Green Wave have taken advantage of an easy schedule.  Their last three games were cake walks against Navy without QB Blake Horvath, and dead Temple and Charlotte teams.  They beat North Texas by 8 and Rice by 14 in the two games prior.  And the other two wins came against UAB and South Florida.

This is a big step up in class for Tulane having to face Memphis, which also is 9-2 this season.  While the Tigers have been eliminated from AAC Championship contention, then continue to play hard beating Rice 27-20 and UAB 53-18 in their last two games.  Now they want to prove that they can beat the top dogs in Tulane, and I think the Tigers will be as motivated as they've been for any game this season.

I know Memphis' best effort is good enough to stay within two touchdowns of Tulane.  Memphis is 13-4 SU in its last 17 meetings with Tulane with only one loss by more than 14 points.  That makes for a 16-1 system backing the Tigers pertaining to this 14-point spread.  Bet Memphis Thursday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Total DOMINATOR on Boise State/Wyoming UNDER 57.5

This is strictly a play on the weather.  There is expected to be 20 MPH sustained winds in Laramie Saturday night with gusts up to 40 MPH.  Wind affects scoring more than any other weather element, and these teams are going to be forced to keep the ball on the ground in a defensive battle that keeps the clock moving for four quarters.

Wyoming will be able to stack the box to try and stop RB Ashton Jeanty without worry that Boise State will try to throw it much.  And I have no doubt Boise State is going to be able to stop this hapless Wyoming offense.

The Cowboys rank 119th in scoring offense at 20.4 points per game, 118th in total offense at 326.8 yards per game and 123rd at 4.9 yards per play.  Boise State ranks 13th in the country allowing 104.7 rushing yards per game and 17th at 3.3 per carry.  Wyoming is going to need to score at least 20 points for us to lose this UNDER, and I just don't seem them getting to 20.  

The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with 39 or fewer combined points in all five meetings.  Boise State and Wyoming have combined for 48 or fewer points in seven consecutive meetings, making for a 7-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 57.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Baylor -7.5

The Baylor 'buy' signs are high right now.  I've been riding this team in their last few games and will continue to ride them this week. The Bears are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Their offense is unstoppable right now averaging 45.8 points per game and 551 yards per game in their four consecutive wins and covers.

The fact of the matter is Houston cannot keep up with Baylor.  The Bears will get their points.  Houston has been held to 17 points or fewer in six of its 10 games this season.  The Cougars rank 133rd in scoring offense at 14.0 points per game.  That is absolutely atrocious in today's college football.

I think the Cougars hit an all-time low last week losing 27-3 to Arizona.  That was a previously dead Arizona team that couldn't stop anyone.  They had allowed 56 points to UCF in their previous game and held Houston to 3.  Their defense is decimated by injuries.

Houston has been able to hang with teams that play slow, defensive-minded football this season.  They haven't been able to hang with the better offenses they have faced that are more up-tempo like Baylor.  The Bears will test them in a big way as they rank 11th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.1 seconds.  The Cougars won't be able to keep up.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

20* BYU/Arizona State ESPN No-Brainer on Arizona State -3

I faded BYU with success with Kansas +3 last week.  I'm fading the Cougars again this week as I still believe they are overvalued due to their fraudulent 9-1 record.  BYU is 4-1 in games decided by 6 points or less.  

They have been fortunate in close games all season, including a 1-point win over a bad Utah team and a 3-point win over a bad Oklahoma State team.  They finally had their luck run out last week, coming up a yard short in the red zone at the end of the game in a 17-13 loss to Kansas.  I think that's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

While BYU just had the wind taken out of their sails, Arizona State has all the momentum right now.  The Sun Devils have won three straight following their bye week with a 21-point win at Oklahoma State and a 4-point home win over UCF without star RB Cam Skattebo.

But Skattebo returned from injury last week to help lead the 24-14 upset at Kansas State.  The Sun Devils jumped out to a 21-0 lead and never looked back.  Skattebo had 117 yards from scrimmage and averages 152 scrimmage yards per game this season.  While Skattebo gets all the credit for this team, it's QB Sam Leavitt who has made the biggest leap here down the stretch and his playing his best football of the season.  

Leavitt has a 9-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his last three games.  He is the reason the Sun Devils control their own destiny now in getting to the Big 12 Championship.  This team is playing with a massive chip on their shoulder after being picked to finish last by the media in the offseason.  That chip will remain squarely on their shoulder this week.

Arizona State wants to run Skattebo to set up the play-action for Leavitt.  They average 190.5 rushing yards per game.  BYU's weakness is stopping the run.  The Cougars allow 139.2 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry, which ranks 75th in the country.  BYU is balanced but leans on the pass more, and ASU is good in both departments.  They allow just 3.8 yards per rush attempt which ranks 47th and 6.3 yards per pass attempt which ranks 31st.

I think Arizona State has the better defense and their home-field advantage will be huge in this one as it should be one of the best atmospheres for a game in Tempe in years with what's at stake.  It's worth more than what is being factored into this line.  The Sun Devils should be more than 3-point home favorites here.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah State -4

The Utah State Aggies (3-7) and San Diego Aztecs (3-7) are both eliminated from bowl contention.  But these teams are trending in opposite directions, and I trust Utah State to show up a lot more than I do San Diego State.  Plus, this is Senior Day for the Aggies, so they will want to send their seniors out winners.

Utah State has been competitive in four of its last five games with the lone exception being a 49-28 loss at Washington State.  They only lost by 16 to UNLV, by 5 to New Mexico, beat Wyoming by 2 and then crushed Hawaii 55-10 last week.  The Aggies racked up 580 total yards on Hawaii and held them to just 309, outgaining them by 271 yards.  Hawaii had been playing very well going into that game.

San Diego State has really been dominated in the box score in three straight games.  They lost 56-24 at Boise State while getting outgained 541 to 256 by the Broncos.  They only lost 21-16 at home to New Mexico, but that was a bigger blowout than the final score as the Lobos outgained them 475 to 341 but left a lot of points on the board.  And last week they lost 41-20 at UNLV while getting outgained 515 to 270 by the Rebels.

So San Diego State is allowing 510.3 yards per game and only averaging 289 yards per game on offense in their last three games.  They are getting outgained by 221.3 yards per game during this stretch.  I don't see it going any better for the Aztecs against this high-octane Utah State offense that finally showed they could play a little defense against Hawaii last week.  

The Aggies rank 8th in total offense at 463.9 yards per game and 32nd at 6.4 yards per play.  Compare that to the Aztecs, who rank 120th in total offense at 324.7 yards per game and 20th at 4.9 yards per play, and it's easy to see that the Aztecs can't keep up with them in this one.  Bet Utah State Saturday.

15* Tulsa/USF AAC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 60.5

Both Tulsa and South Florida are dead nut OVER teams and this should be a shootout Saturday afternoon.  South Florida ranks 1st in tempo in the entire country snapping the ball every 20.6 seconds.  Tulsa ranks 22nd in tempo snapping it ever 24.1 seconds, so this game is going to see a ton of plays and a ton of possessions and more opportunities for points as a result.

South Florida just ran it down Charlotte's throat last week rushing for 425 yards in a 59-24 victory and 83 combined points.  They are going to be able to do the same against a Tulsa defense that ranks 130th in scoring defense at 38.4 points per game, 127th in total defense at 458.1 yards per game and 128th at 6.7 yards per play.  Tulsa allowed 52 points to North Texas, 49 to Army, 45 to UTSA, 59 to UAB and 38 to ECU in five of its last six games, going 5-1 OVER in those six games.

Tulsa should find plenty of success on offense to help us get this OVER 60.5 home.  The Bulls rank 119th in total defense allowing 421.1 yards per game.  They are particularly poor against the pass, allowing 265.9 yards per game which ranks 126th in the country.  Tulsa QB Cooper Legas is a good dual-threat who threw for 293 yards and 3 TD against a pretty good ECU defense last week.  He also rushed for 43 yards on 13 carries in leading the Golden Hurricane to 31 points.

Tulsa and South Florida combined for 90 points in their last meeting.  The forecast looks great for another shootout with temps in the 60's, no wind and no precipitation this afternoon.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Colorado/Kansas FOX No-Brainer on Kansas +3

Kansas is one of the best 4-6 teams in the history of college football. Kansas is 1-5 in games decided by 6 points or less this season.  The other was a misleading 11-point loss to TCU.  The Jayhawks have had two bye weeks in the last month and are fresh and showing what they are capable of now.

Kansas is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games with the lone loss coming 29-27 as 9.5-point underdogs at Kansas State in a game they deserved to win.  They returned from their first bye with a 42-14 dismantling of Houston as 5-point home favorites.  They came back from their 2nd bye and upset Iowa State 45-36 as 2-point underdogs at Arrowhead Stadium.  And last week they handed BYU their first loss in a 17-13 road win as 3-point dogs.

This Kansas offense has taken off behind QB Jaylon Daniels and RB Devin Neal.  They put up 42 points and 467 total yards on a very good Houston defense.  They put up 27 points and 401 total yards on a very good Kansas State defense.  And most impressive yet was the 45 points and 532 total yards they put up against arguably the best defense in the Big 12 in Iowa State.

Now the Jayhawks have their sights set on knocking Colorado off from the top of the Big 12 ranks.  Like BYU, Colorado has benefited from close wins and a soft schedule. The Buffaloes have managed to not have to face the top three teams in the Big 12 outside themselves.  They needed a hail mary to beat Baylor, and they lost by 3 at home to Kansas State, which is arguably the best Big 12 team they have faced this season.

Kansas can get whatever it wants against this Colorado defense.  And the Jayhawks have two of the top CB's in the Big 12 to match up with Travis Hunter and these Colorado receivers.  I like the matchup for the Jayhawks, who will have a big home-field advantage after outscoring Iowa State and Houston a combined 87-50 in their last two home games.  Bet Kansas Saturday. 

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on ECU/North Texas OVER 73

Both East Carolina and North Texas are dead nuts OVER teams.  They both have elite offenses, play fast, and play little to no defense.  North Texas ranks 3rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.5 seconds.  East Carolina ranks 5th at 21.8 seconds between snaps.  You would be hard-pressed to find another game this season that is going to see more plays and possessions than this one.

The OVER is 5-0 in East Carolina's last five games overall with 63 or more combined points in all five.  Their offense is really humming right now putting up 56 against Temple, 49 against Florida Atlantic and 38 against Tulsa the last three weeks.  They have allowed at least 31 points in four of their last five games, and the only game they didn't was because FAU lost its starting QB early.

North Texas is 8-2 OVER in all games this season.  The Mean Green have gone for at least 67 combined points in seven of their 10 games this season.  They have allowed 45, 52 and 48 points in three of their last four games, and I suspect East Carolina will get into the 40's in this one.  The Mean Green rank 126th in total defense at 458.1 yards per game and 126th in scoring at 35.7 points per game.

The forecast looks good for a shootout with temps in the 70's, 12 MPH winds and no precipitation Saturday in Denton, TX.  This will be one of the most entertaining games of the season with these teams matching each other score for score for 60 minutes in a fast-paced game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on East Carolina +3

This is going to be a back and forth game with two of the Top 5 offenses in the country in terms of tempo.  But I think the difference is East Carolina will get one or two more stops than North Texas will because their defense is much better.

East Carolina's offense has taken off since switching quarterbacks to Katin Houser.  He has thrown for at least 269 yards in every game with a 14-to-6 TD/INT ratio in his last four games.  He led ECU to a 56-35 win over Temple, a 49-14 win over FAU and a 38-31 win at Tulsa.

Now Houser and company get to go up against one of the worst defenses in the country in North Texas.  The Mean Green rank 126th in scoring defense allowing 35.7 points per game and 126th in total defense allowing 458.1 yards per game.  Compare that to ECU, which allows 393.8 yards per game and 27.2 points per game, and it's easy to see that the Pirates have the much better defense in this one.

North Texas allowed 48 points to UTSA, 45 to Tulane and 52 to Memphis in three of its last four games coming in.  I don't think the Mean Green are all that motivated for a 6th win here knowing they can get it against lowly Temple next week to clinch bowl eligibility.  ECU has been rolling since making a coaching chance and the Pirates have all the momentum now.  The wrong team is favored in this game today.  Bet East Carolina Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Total DOMINATOR on Rice/UAB OVER 51

I like taking OVERS between two teams late in the season that have nothing but pride to play for because they have already been eliminated from bowl contention.  These games tend to be played much more loose and free with the offenses having the advantage over the defense.  This applies to Rice (3-7) traveling to UAB (2-8) Saturday.

UAB is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Blazers play fast and they play no defense.  They rank 23rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 24.1 seconds.  They rank 127th in scoring defense allowing 36.8 points per game.  And UAB has played much better offensively since switching to Jalen Kitna at QB, averaging 444.3 total yards per game and 31.3 points per game in their last four games.  This total of 51 is very low for a game involving UAB right now.

The only reason this total is so low is because Rice has been an under team this season going 7-3 to the under.  But they haven't had QB EJ Warner healthy for part of the season, and he is healthy now and thriving.  Warner threw for 246 yards and 2 TD against Memphis and 239 yards and a TD against Navy in his last two games coming in.  He will have one of his best games of the season against UAB, similar to when he threw for 347 yards and 2 TD against UTSA, which is a team that profiles similar to UAB with no defense and up-tempo.

UAB and its opponents have combined for at least 54 points in eight consecutive games, making for an 8-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 51-point total.  The forecast looks great for a shootout this afternoon with temps in the 50's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Ole Miss -10

I normally wouldn't want to back a team like Ole Miss off an upset win over Georgia.  But the Rebels cannot afford a letdown if they want to make the 12-team playoff.  They have no margin for error and cannot afford a loss.  In fact, they would do themselves some by running up the score in their final two games to assure they make it.

The Rebels had a bye last week to celebrate their win over Georgia, and now they can refocus.  They are expected to get arguably the best receiver in the country back in Tre Harris from injury this week.  Harris was leading the country in receiving before getting hurt.  He has 59 receptions for 987 yards and 6 TD in only seven games this season.

Ole Miss has the numbers of the best team in the country, which shouldn't make it all that surprising they beat Georgia 28-10.  Their 'A' game is as good as any in the country.  They lead the nation in yards per play differential, averaging 7.6 yards per play on offense and allowing 4.4 yards per play on defense, outgaining opponents by 3.2 yards per play.  So basically every time the ball is snapped they gain 3.2 yards of field position.  That is as elite as it gets.

I have backed Florida several times this season and I like this team more than most who left them for dead early in the season.  The Gators continue to fight for Billy Napier and I think the program made the right move in extending him.  He was dealt a tough hand with the toughest schedule in the country and has made the most of it, getting Florida over their 4.5-win total at 5-5 this season.  They want to get to a bowl, but they have Florida State on deck next week to accomplish that goal.  It's not going to happen this week.

This is where that tough schedule hurts Florida.  The Gators have had to play Georgia, Texas and LSU the last three weeks.  It's safe to say those were some very physical games and they have taken their toll as Florida is one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the country right now.  They are missing many of their top playmakers on offense and defense.

After losing by 14 to Georgia, they lost by 32 at Texas.  But they got QB DJ Lagway back last week from injury and he led them to a 27-16 upset win over LSU.  That was a bit of a misleading final with LSU outgaining Florida by 53 yards.  But the key is that their defense was on the field for 42 minutes and 92 plays.  All four of their starters in the secondary played all 92 snaps, too, because they are so short-handed in the secondary right now.

This Ole Miss offense is not the unit you want to face when you are tired defensively.  The Rebels rank 9th in tempo snapping the ball every 23 seconds.  They will keep their foot on the gas for four quarters because they need style points, and I expect this Florida defense to break.  I don't think Lagway and company can keep up in a shootout either because the Rebels are going to get their points.  

Lane Kiffin is 15-2 SU & 12-4-1 ATS since 2019 as a road favorite.  He is 8-1 ATS in his last nine games as a road favorite of -4 or higher with the only non-cover coming as 10.5-point favorites in a 10-point win at Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl.  Double-digit dogs off a conference win like Florida are on a 48-87 ATS run.  Florida has lost 14 consecutive games SU as a double-digit dog dating back to 2016.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss/Florida OVER 55

The Ole Miss Rebels had a bye last week to celebrate their win over Georgia, and now they can refocus.  They need style points to make the 12-team playoff and will be looking to run up the score against Florida.  They are expected to get arguably the best receiver in the country back in Tre Harris from injury this week.  Harris was leading the country in receiving before getting hurt.  He has 59 receptions for 987 yards and 6 TD in only seven games this season.

Ole Miss is elite offensively this season ranking 4th in scoring offense at 40.7 points per game, 2nd in total offense at 538.3 yards per game and 2nd at 7.6 yards per play.  They play at the 9th-fastest tempo in the country and don't let their opponents breath.  That was on display in their last road game when they suffocated Arkansas 63-31 for 94 combined points.  That's the same Arkansas defense that held Texas to 20 points and Tennessee to 14 at home.

This is where that tough schedule hurts Florida.  The Gators have had to play Georgia, Texas and LSU the last three weeks.  It's safe to say those were some very physical games and they have taken their toll as Florida is one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the country right now.  They are missing many of their top playmakers on defense.

After losing by 14 to Georgia, they lost by 32 at Texas.  But they got QB DJ Lagway back last week from injury and he led them to a 27-16 upset win over LSU.  But the key is that their defense was on the field for 42 minutes and 92 plays.  All four of their starters in the secondary played all 92 snaps, too, because they are so short-handed in the secondary right now.

This Ole Miss offense is not the unit you want to face when you are tired defensively.  The Rebels rank 9th in tempo snapping the ball every 23 seconds.  They will keep their foot on the gas for four quarters because they need style points, and I expect this Florida defense to break.

Lagway has one of the best deep balls in the country and he is averaging 18.8 yards per completion this season.  I think he will have enough success with some deep balls to get Florida on the board quickly a few times in this game.  It likely won't be enough to hang with Ole Miss, but it will be enough to help us cash this OVER 55 ticket.  The forecast looks great for a shootout as well with temps in the 60's and only 7 MPH winds without any threat of precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Maryland +6.5

The Iowa Hawkeyes had some life offensively when Brandon Sullivan took over at QB.  He was a dual-threat and added a dimension the Hawkeyes didn't have before, and it worked in blowout wins over Wisconsin and Northwestern.

But Sullivan got hurt in their 20-17 loss to UCLA.  Former starter Cade McNamara is done at Iowa, and now it's up to third-string QB Jackson Stratton.  He took over late for Sullivan in the loss to UCLA and went 3-of-6 for 28 yards.  This will be the first start of his career on the road in the Big Ten, and I don't expect it to go well for him.

Maryland will be motivated sitting at 4-6 on the season and two wins away from bowl eligibility.  They host Nebraska next week, so these next two games are very winnable.  They are in this position because they lost 31-17 to Rutgers last week.  But that misleading final is the reason we are getting more points with the Terrapins than we should be today.

Maryland goes from being a 4-point home favorite over Rutgers to a 6.5-point underdog to Iowa.  That's a 10.5-point adjustment.  I power rate Rutgers and Iowa very similarly.  Maryland outgained Rutgers 457 to 360 for the game, or by nearly 100 yards, which is why I say it was a misleading final.

I like the matchup for the Terrapins, too.  Iowa needs to run the football to be effective because they have the 127th-ranking passing attack in the country, and it's going to be even worse with Stratton.  The Terrapins rank 29th in allowing just 115.4 rushing yards per game and 30th at 3.6 per carry.  They are great along the front seven and weak in the secondary, which is something Iowa will not be able to exploit.

Heavy passing teams have had success throwing the ball against Iowa.  UCLA, Michigan State, Ohio State and Iowa State all had a lot of success throwing the ball on Iowa's defense.  The Terrapins are getting great production from their pasisng game this season.  QB Billy Edwards is completing 65% of his passes for 2,855 yards with a 15-to-9 TD/INT ratio.  He gets to throw to two of the most underrated receivers in the country in Felton and Prather, who have combined for 138 receptions, 1,629 yards and 10 TD this season.  Bet Maryland Saturday.

20* Indiana/Ohio State FOX No-Brainer on Indiana +13.5

What more does Indiana have to do to get some respect? The Hoosiers are 10-0 SU & 8-2 ATS this season with nine of their 10 wins coming by 14 points or more.  They led Michigan 17-3 at halftime and it turned into a 5-point game as they took their foot off the gas in the 2H going into their bye week and looking ahead to this game against Ohio State, which is understandable.

I think that effort is the only reason the Hoosiers are double-digit dogs here to Ohio State.  I think the Hoosiers can get back to playing with a chip on their shoulder because nobody is giving them a chance Saturday, talking about their strength of schedule.  Head coach Curt Cignetti is saying all the right things and even stated that they have been in control in every game this season, which is true.

Indiana has no weaknesses.  The Hoosiers rank 2nd in scoring offense at 43.9 points per game and 7th in scoring defense at 13.8 points per game.  They rank 9th averaging 6.9 yards per play on offense and 2nd allowing 4.2 yards per play on defense.  Their 2.7 net yards per play differential is one of the best marks in the country.

Ohio State needed a late comeback to beat Nebraska 21-17 at home as 25-point favorites.  That's the same Nebraska team Indiana blasted 56-7 as 6.5-point home favorites.  No question the Buckeyes are one of the best teams in the country, but they have some problems along the offensive line that I think Indiana can exploit.

Ohio State just lost starting C Seth McClaughlin to a season-ending Achilles injury in practice this week.  Injuries at the center position are worth more than what is being factored into the line.  He makes all the calls up front, and the Buckeyes don't have much time to prepare to play without him.  They were already without starting LT Josh Simmons, so they are now missing two starters up front.

The Buckeyes need to be able to run the ball to be effective because Will Howard is shaky at times in the passing game.  I don't see them having much success on the ground with these O-Line injuries, plus the fact that Indiana ranks 1st in the country allowing just 72.2 rushing yards per game and 2nd at 2.5 yards per rush.  The Hoosiers are also off a bye week so they have had two weeks to rest and prepare for the Buckeyes, a fact that also isn't being factored into the line enough.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* Purdue/Michigan State FOX No-Brainer on Michigan State -13.5

I love the spot for the Michigan State Spartans Friday night.  They sit at 4-6 on the season and highly motivated for a win to get within one win of bowl eligibility with another winnable home game against Rutgers on deck next week.  It will be a great atmosphere Friday night as fans are excited about head coach Jonathan Smith and the direction of this team.

Michigan State is coming off a misleading 38-16 road loss at Illinois last week, which is why this line is below 14 and providing us value.  Illinois only outgained Michigan State by 26 yards.  It was a 6-point game entering the 4th quarter.

After going through a gauntlet of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Iowa, Oregon and Ohio State in their last six games coming in, the Spartans will be looking forward to a big step down in class against the worst team in the Big Ten in Purdue.  They will take out their frustration and win this game going away.

Purdue is 0-9 SU & 1-8 ATS in its last nine games overall.  Seven of those nine losses came by 17 points or more, and you can chalk up another blowout loss for the Boilermakers tonight.  After losing in OT to Northwestern coming out of their bye at home, they have simply quit the last two weeks losing 45-0 to Ohio State and 49-10 to Penn State.  I don't think they'll have much left in the tank on this short week, and they are just ready for the season to be over at this point.

Michigan State had a bye prior to Illinois and should still be fresh, which is an advantage on this short week.  The Spartans are 8-1 SU in their last nine meetings with the Boilermakers, and they haven't gotten to face a Purdue team that has been this bad during this stretch.  They'll take advantage of this opportunity and win going away tonight.  Bet Michigan State Friday.