Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-09-15 | Spurs v. Raptors +5 | Top | 94-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
The Spurs are coming off a 51-point win over the Sixers on Monday which was a product of San Antonio being one of the best teams in the league and Philadelphia being the worst. The Spurs were favored by 10 there and are now favored by half that and while they were without three key players, they are clearly overvalued here. After three straight home losses, Toronto snapped that skid on Monday with a win over the Lakers and while that was an unimpressive victory, it was needed. It has been a slow start for the Raptors and there issue has been not playing well against the poor teams. They have been great against the top teams as they are the only team in the NBA with six wins over top ten teams and on the season, they are 7-0 ATS against winning teams and 7-0 ATS as an underdog of three or more points. Here, we play against favorites in a game involving two teams averaging between 98 and 102 ppg, after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half. This situation is 48-21 ATS (69.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (708) Toronto Raptors |
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12-09-15 | Heat v. Hornets +1.5 | Top | 81-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
We won with Charlotte on Monday and we will back them again tonight as they continue to get undervalued. The Hornets are just a half-game behind Miami in the Southeast Division in what is turning into a wide open division. Charlotte is 9-3 at home with those three losses coming against Atlanta, Cleveland and Golden St. Miami has been a pleasant surprise although many picked the Heat to win the division but I am not sold on this team yet as they have been the most fortunate team in the NBA when it comes to the schedule. 14 of their first 19 games have been on their home floor and this has equated to being the second easiest schedule in the league thus far. It gets tougher after the New Year as they play a stretch of 14 of 15 on the road. Charlotte falls into a situation where we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are averaging 102 ppg going up against teams allowing between 92 and 98 ppg after a win by 20 points or more. This situation is 45-18 ATS (71.4 percent) since 1996. 10* (702) Charlotte Hornets |
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12-09-15 | Bulls +3 v. Celtics | Top | 100-105 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
The Bulls hit the road following a pair of home losses and it was the first time they have lost consecutive games this season as they are now 5-1 following a defeat. I don't see it making it to three straight as Chicago has not lost three straight regular season games since early March of last season. The Bulls are 4-4 on the road and this is a good place to get back over .500 on the highway as they have covered four straight meetings in Boston not including a push while the road team has covered the last four. The Celtics are coming off a 3-2 roadtrip to move three games over .500 and they have now covered four straight games. Boston has done well against the bottom teams in the NBA, going 9-1 against the bottom 14 teams while going just 3-8 against the top 16. The Celtics ppg differential is skewed because of this as eight of those nine wins against the lower half have been by double-digits. Chicago is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 road games after playing a home game while Boston is 50-78 ATS in its last 128 games off a road win by 10 points or more. 10* (703) Chicago Bulls |
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12-08-15 | TCU v. Washington -5.5 | Top | 67-92 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
TCU got off to an incredible 13-0 start last season but it is just 4-3 through seven games this year. Granted, the Horned Frogs have lost to some quality competition but on the flip side, they have defeated no one of note. This also marked their first true road game of the season and it comes in a very tough environment. Injuries are playing a role in the average start as three potential starters are banged up. Washington bounced back from a pair of losses in Atlantis with a win over Charlotte and returned home to pick up a blowout win over CS-Fullerton on Sunday. The Huskies had a miserable time last season and the roster was filled with players that clearly could not gel but they have cured that so far this season with good balance and a strong defense. TCU is 18-34 ATS in its last 52 games after allowing 55 points or less while Washington has covered four of its last five games against teams with a winning record. 10* (544) Washington Huskies |
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12-08-15 | Massachusetts +3 v. UCF | Top | 63-67 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
Central Florida is coming off a blowout win on Saturday against Illinois-Chicago to get to .500 for the first time this season while improving to a perfect 5-0 ATS on the season. UCF had fewer turnovers than their opponent for the first time this season, forcing the Flames to give up the ball 16 times throughout the game. The Knights have a big revenge game on deck against Florida Atlantic where it lost by 13 points just about a year ago to the day. Massachusetts is coming off its second loss of the season and both defeats have come against quality opposition in Mississippi and Creighton. The Minutemen have an exceptional backcourt as they have three perimeter players averaging 17 or more ppg. That will severely hurt the Knights which are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 home games against good ball handling teams that are committing 14 or fewer turnovers per game. Additionally, the Minutemen are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit loss at home. 10* (513) Massachusetts Minutemen |
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12-08-15 | Princeton v. St. Joe's -3.5 | Top | 50-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
Princeton is coming off its first loss of the season as it got thumped by 14 points at Stony Brook, clearly a very bad loss against an inferior opponent. The Tigers have yet to play anyone worthwhile and while St. Joe's is no elite power team, it represents their toughest test to date. The Hawks come in at 5-2 and they have defeated the teams they should beat while losing to Villanova and Florida. Two key things St. Joe's is doing well over last year's 13-18 team is it is converting free throws at a higher rate and limiting turnovers. The Hawks have converted over 70 percent from the line in five of seven games and they are ranked 17th in the nation and third in the A-10 in assist/turnover ratio with 1.39. The Hawks have covered six straight home games against teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .800 while going 5-1 ATS in their last six games against the Ivy League. Meanwhile, the Tigers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games. 10* (520) St. Joseph's Hawks |
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12-07-15 | Pistons v. Hornets -2.5 | Top | 84-104 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
The Pistons are coming off a perfect homestand where they went 4-0 but those four victories came against teams with losing records. Those wins moved Detroit to 8-2 at home but the road has been a different story where the Pistons have dropped seven of their last eight after a 3-0 start on the highway. Charlotte is just a game and a half behind Miami in the Southeast Division following an upset win in Chicago on Saturday following a seven-game homestand. The Hornets are 8-3 at home and those losses have all been quality as they came against three of the four teams that were in the Conference Finals last season including Cleveland and Golden St. This is the first time this season that Detroit is playing the second game of a back-to-back on the road with the first coming at home so it is not in an ideal spot. The Hornets are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record while the Pistons are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games. 10* (702) Charlotte Hornets |
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12-05-15 | Magic v. Clippers -2 | Top | 101-103 | Push | 0 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
It looked as though the Clippers were turning the corner as they had won three straight games following a miserable 1-4 stretch but they put up a dud at home against Indiana on Wednesday. The absence of Chris Paul did not help and now the absence of J.J. Reddick does them no favors but they have plenty of depth and have been able to get a good amount of practice time in. The hottest teams in the NBA not named Golden St. comes from an unlikely source as Orlando has reeled off five straight wins. The defense has been stifling but we see that coming to an end tonight. This includes two road wins to open this trip but they catch the Clippers in a not so ideal spot. Orlando falls into a solid negative situation as we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are coming off an upset win as a road underdog. This situation is 155-101 ATS (60.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (720) Los Angeles Clippers |
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12-05-15 | Knicks v. Bucks +1.5 | Top | 91-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
We won with the Knicks last night but that was more of a play against Brooklyn than anything else and tonight we will be going against New York. The Knicks have won two straight games to move back to .500 but are coming off a four-game homestand and are now playing their first road game since before Thanksgiving. The Bucks lost their second straight game, this time at Detroit last night. They never led and it ended up being their eighth straight loss on the road but they are a much more respectable 5-2 over their last seven home games. They opened the season with a 25-point home loss to New York so Milwaukee will be out to make amends even though it already did pick up a win at MSG. The Bucks have played exceptional this season playing with no rest, going a perfect 4-0 ATS. In my opinion, the wrong team is favored tonight. 10* (714) Milwaukee Bucks |
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12-05-15 | Blazers v. Wolves -2 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -101 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
This is an early season revenger for Minnesota as it lost at home against Portland last month to aid in its not-so-good 2-7 record at home. Surprisingly, the Timberwolves are 6-3 on the road so it has been a very unusual start for them as they head into this one having lost two straight. Portland meanwhile is coming off an upset win over Indiana at home but it has been a trying season for the Blazers without LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum. After starting the season 4-2, Portland is just 4-10 over its last 14 games including a 1-6 record on the road with the lone win coming against the 3-16 Lakers. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 coming off an upset win as an underdog going up against an opponent off a upset loss as a favorite. This situation is 63-28 ATS (69.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (708) Minnesota Timberwolves |
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12-05-15 | Illinois-Chicago +14 v. UCF | Top | 58-88 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
Here we have the perfect contrast between two teams that is inflating the line to a drastic measure. Central Florida, despite a 2-3 record, has yet to lose against the number as it is a perfect 4-0 ATS. The three straight up losses have been very tight so the record could be better. On the other side, Illinois-Chicago has just one win in five tries and it is 0-4 ATS in its four lined games. The Flames are coming off a poor season and arte now with a new coach and not much is expected this season. However, this line is certainly in their favor and we can go back to last season as an example. Illinois-Chicago was a favored by 1.5 points last season at home and now the line has shifted 15.5 points since then and there is no way these two teams have gone that much apart from each other. Going back, the Flames are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a double-digit loss at home while the Knights are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games against teams with a losing straight up record. 10* (777) Illinois-Chicago Flames |
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12-05-15 | Southern Illinois v. North Texas +7 | Top | 95-63 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Southern Illinois is off to a surprising 7-1 start but the schedule has been pretty tame and in its favor. The Salukis have played only one true road game and that was against lower level Sam Houston St. of the Southland Conference and it took overtime to win. There was a lot of turnover for Southern Illinois from last season so they have to be happy with the start but laying a big number on the road is overaggressive. North Texas is no elite team and it has yet to cover a game this season but those situations were all different. Two road games against Northern Iowa and Utah were blowouts against power teams and in three home games, they were favored in all and two resulted in losses by a bucket. Now the Mean Green are a big home underdog and we will grab the generous number. Going back, the Salukis are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games while the Mean Green are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a winning road record. 10* (782) North Texas Mean Green |
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12-04-15 | Rockets +5.5 v. Mavs | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
It has been a trying season for the Rockets as they have done their best to fall out of contention in the Western Conference. They made it to the Western Conference Finals a season ago so expectations were high but after a poor start to this season, head coach Kevin McHale was let go which has not cured much. Although Houston has won three of its last four games and is catching a very solid number here. Dallas is just three games over .500 following a 2-4 run but the fact it is riding a five-game home winning streak is the main reason for the size of this number. The Rockets fall into a great situation as we play on road teams after allowing 100 points or more four straight games going up against an opponent after a win by six points or less. This situation is 45-19 ATS (70.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (509) Houston Rockets |
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12-04-15 | Nets v. Knicks -3 | Top | 91-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
Fresh off a pair of wins, Brooklyn heads to MSG to face the Knicks for the first meeting this season. The Nets are in the midst of their first multi-game winning streak of the season with both of those wins coming by just three and four points and both took big fourth quarter comebacks. The Knicks meanwhile are coming off a win over the Sixers, which is certainly nothing great, but it snapped a four-game skid so it in fact was a much needed victory. Brooklyn has won just one road game this season and despite a 1-10 road record, it is catching the smallest line it has seen on the highway all season. Going back, Brooklyn is 4-16 ATS in its last 20 games following consecutive wins while the Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win. 10* (502) New York Knicks |
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12-04-15 | Suns v. Wizards +1 | Top | 106-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
The Wizards are playing some horrible basketball right now but in no way should they be a home underdog in this spot. They are coming off a loss against the now 3-15 Lakers which was their fifth loss in six games and they were unable to capitalize off a big upset win in Cleveland the previous night. Phoenix is going though a similar skid as it has lost six of its last seven games including losses in two straight following a win in Toronto to open this roadtrip. The Suns were favored over Brooklyn by 3.5 points to open the week and there is no way they should be favored again on the road against a much better team despite the home team struggles. Going back, the Suns are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against teams with a losing straight up record while the Wizards are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a losing straight up record. 10* (504) Washington Wizards |