MAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Eastern Michigan and Buffalo at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Both teams are coming off low-scoring 'under' results last week, and in Buffalo’s case, it’s two straight 'unders'. However, the Bulls had been rolling offensively prior to this slide, putting up 76 combined points over their two games before the recent lull. This matchup presents a chance for Buffalo to get back on track and salvage the finale of its three-game homestand.

Eastern Michigan, meanwhile, dropped a 24-13 decision at Central Michigan last week after its lone win of the season. The Eagles will be motivated and looking to split their two-game MAC road trip. EMU had shown offensive life earlier in the season with three straight 'over' results prior to last week’s letdown.

With both teams capable of lighting up the scoreboard and motivated to bounce back, I expect a higher-scoring affair.

Take the 'over' between Eastern Michigan and Buffalo.

Big 12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the under between Iowa State and Cincinnati at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Last week’s 39-point showing against Arizona made headlines, but that’s simply not the type of game Iowa State wants to play. The Cyclones are far more comfortable dictating tempo, leaning on a methodical approach offensively and wearing opponents down with efficiency rather than explosiveness. History supports that notion — Iowa State hasn’t followed up one ‘over’ result with another yet this season, sitting at 2-3 to the total overall.

Cincinnati, meanwhile, has played in three straight ‘over’ results, but much of that can be attributed to game flow. The Bearcats lit up Kansas for 37 points in an upset win last week, but that was a near-perfect storm with momentum on their side and the Jayhawks defense springing leaks everywhere. That sets up for a natural offensive letdown here against a much sturdier opponent.

Defensively, the Cyclones are one of the nation’s most reliable units, having held every opponent to 21 points or fewer through five games. Combine that with a Cincy team likely to find the sledding much tougher this week, and the recipe is in place for a lower-scoring affair than the market is projecting.

Take the under between Iowa State and Cincinnati.

My selection is on the under between New Mexico and San Jose State at 10 pm et on Friday.

We saw fireworks in San Jose State’s narrow 30-29 loss at Stanford last Saturday, but I don’t expect a repeat performance here. That game marked the Spartans’ second straight ‘over,’ yet both of those results were more about defensive lapses than anything else. This week’s spot looks very different: a short turnaround, back at home, and against a New Mexico team that isn’t built to sustain track-meet style contests.

The Lobos are coming off three straight wins, each with 32+ points scored. On the surface, that suggests an offensive surge, but digging deeper, the quality of opponents played a big role in those outbursts. Facing San Jose State is a step up in defensive class, even with the Spartans’ recent struggles. SJSU’s defense has allowed 28+ points in three straight games, but I expect a correction here given the Lobos’ predictable, run-heavy attack.

Ultimately, this number looks inflated off recent results from both sides. On a short week, with two offenses that lean toward being methodical rather than explosive, there’s value in backing a lower-scoring contest.

Take the under between New Mexico and San Jose State.

C-USA Game of the Year. My selection is on Sam Houston State minus the points over New Mexico State at 9 pm et on Thursday.

Sam Houston State’s 0-4 record looks ugly at first glance, but the context matters. Three of those games came on the road against quality opponents, and the lone home game was against a strong UNLV side. This is the first time all season the Bearkats are set up in a more manageable spot, and it comes off a bye week — perfect timing to reset and make a push. With the remaining schedule softening considerably, there’s still a path to bowl eligibility if they can get rolling, and that starts here.

New Mexico State, meanwhile, looks like a step down in class from what SHSU has faced. The Aggies are fresh off a 38-20 loss to in-state rival New Mexico, marking their second straight ATS defeat. Their two wins on the year came against Bryant (an FCS team) and Tulsa, which hasn’t proven much outside of its one fluky upset at Oklahoma State. The Aggies’ lack of a consistent running game is particularly concerning, as pounding the rock has been the clearest formula to beat the Bearkats’ defense. Without that dimension, it’s hard to see New Mexico State controlling this matchup.

With extra rest and preparation, plus the urgency of needing to stop the bleeding, I expect Sam Houston State to step up and deliver its first win of the year in convincing fashion.

Take Sam Houston State minus the points.

My selection is on Louisiana plus the points over Marshall at 8 pm et on Saturday.

This looks like a classic “wrong team favored” spot. Marshall comes in off a two-touchdown road win at Middle Tennessee State and is riding some confidence, but the Ragin’ Cajuns are in a prime position to respond at home. Louisiana enters the matchup having dropped back-to-back SU and ATS games, including a surprising upset at Eastern Michigan last week, and the team is still looking for its first truly complete performance of the season.

Louisiana’s early-season hiccups include a double-digit home loss to a better-than-expected Rice squad, showing that the Ragin’ Cajuns can be vulnerable but are far from incapable. Meanwhile, Marshall has already suffered an upset at home against FCS newcomer Missouri State, highlighting some inconsistencies in the Thundering Herd.

With the home-field advantage, motivation to rebound, and a team that can certainly hang with Marshall on both sides of the ball, the points with Louisiana are attractive in this spot.

Take Louisiana plus the points.

My selection is on the ‘under’ between San Jose State and Stanford at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

San Jose State comes off its most productive offensive outing of the season, putting up 31 points in a home win over Idaho, but I don’t expect that momentum to carry over on the road against Stanford. The Spartans have shown flashes of competence in their ground game, but their passing attack remains inconsistent, which will make sustained drives more difficult in a hostile environment.

Stanford, meanwhile, has recorded consecutive ‘over’ results, including a 48-20 rout of Virginia, but those numbers are somewhat inflated. The Cardinal’s offense is heavily run-oriented, and while they can produce points in bursts, they typically rely on a methodical approach that grinds out the clock.

Both teams figure to emphasize long, clock-eating drives and minimize mistakes, leading to fewer scoring opportunities. Neither has shown the explosiveness necessary to turn this into a shootout, and the defensive fronts on both sides should be able to limit big plays. With these factors in mind, a lower-scoring contest on The Farm seems the most likely outcome.

Take the ‘under.’

SEC Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Alabama and Georgia at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

At first glance, the case for the ‘over’ might seem obvious. Alabama enters a perfect 3-0 to the high side, while Georgia is coming off a track meet of an overtime win at Tennessee. But I believe this is the right spot to pivot the other way.

Both defenses have had two full weeks to prepare thanks to the bye, which should pay dividends in terms of containment and discipline. While both offenses have looked explosive, neither side is likely to find the same rhythm against a unit that has been scheming specifically to slow them down. The short pointspread also suggests oddsmakers expect a back-and-forth game rather than one team pulling away and inflating the score late.

This feels like a classic SEC slugfest where big plays are harder to come by, and every possession matters. With nerves high and adjustments plentiful, I expect a lower-scoring contest than most anticipate.

Take the ‘under’ between Alabama and Georgia.

AAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Tulane minus the points over Tulsa at 4 pm et on Saturday.

Tulane comes in off a tough step-up loss at Ole Miss, but this is a much more manageable spot for the Green Wave. They travel to face a Tulsa team coming off an emotional primetime upset at in-state rival Oklahoma State. The Golden Hurricane are likely ripe for a letdown after that high, and their inconsistency this season—including back-to-back SU and ATS losses prior to that win—doesn’t inspire confidence.

Tulane enters the matchup with a 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS record and should be motivated to rebound. The Green Wave have shown they can stay focused, even after nearly being caught off guard as a double-digit favorite against South Alabama earlier in the season. Expect a disciplined, controlled effort that carries them to a comfortable road victory.

Take Tulane minus the points.

My selection is on Toledo minus the points over Akron at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

This looks like a classic wrong-place, wrong-time situation for Akron. The Zips are fresh off a 51-7 thrashing of FCS foe Duquesne, but now they’re stepping way up in class against a Toledo team that just suffered a gut-punch 14-13 loss at Western Michigan. The Rockets had higher expectations for their MAC opener, and I expect them to respond with urgency back home at the Glass Bowl.

Akron has strung together back-to-back ATS covers, but let’s not lose sight of how ugly its first two performances were, getting shut out in consecutive weeks and outscored 78-0. That kind of inconsistency is a red flag against a Rockets squad that has already proven itself against a tougher schedule. Before last week’s stumble, Toledo was 2-1 SU and ATS, with its only prior loss coming in a competitive showing against Kentucky.

Motivation, talent, and situational edge all point one way.

Take Toledo minus the points.

Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Arkansas State plus the points over Louisiana-Monroe at 3 pm et on Saturday.

Arkansas State stumbled last week in a 28-21 defeat at Kennesaw State, but that spot set up poorly coming off an emotional near-upset of Iowa State. Outside of that slip, the Red Wolves’ losses have been explainable, including one against in-state power Arkansas. This is still a team capable of competing well in the Sun Belt.

Louisiana-Monroe, meanwhile, may be in for a letdown after springing an upset at UTEP last week. The Warhawks’ 31-point outburst felt like an anomaly considering they mustered only 29 points combined across their first two games against Saint Francis (PA) and Alabama. This is not an offense I expect to consistently produce at that level.

With the Red Wolves owning the superior roster and catching points in this matchup, I see value siding with them to get back on track in their conference opener.

Take Arkansas State plus the points.

My selection is on the ‘under’ between Rutgers and Minnesota at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Rutgers has been an ‘over’ team through four weeks, but I see that run coming to a halt here. The Scarlet Knights hit the road for the first time and face a Minnesota squad fresh off a bye and still stinging from a 27-14 setback at California. The Golden Gophers have allowed just 10 points total in their two home games this season and should benefit from the extra prep time.

Last year’s meeting between these two produced only 45 combined points, and Minnesota didn’t find the end zone over the final 24 minutes. Rutgers wideout Dymere Miller, who was the difference-maker in that contest, is no longer around after moving on to the NFL. While the Knights have been scoring freely, their schedule has contributed to that offensive surge. Even last week against Iowa, they slowed considerably after a hot start.

With Minnesota’s defense capable of setting the tone and Rutgers unlikely to maintain its early-season scoring pace, this matchup sets up well for a lower-scoring outcome.

Take the ‘under.’

My selection is on Duke minus the points over Syracuse at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Duke comes in off a convincing double-digit win over N.C. State, and while the Blue Devils sit just 2-2, the market is right to install them as a road favorite here. Syracuse has strung together three straight victories after dropping its opener at Tennessee, the latest being a stunning upset at Clemson as a massive underdog. But I’m not reading too much into that result, as the Tigers are nowhere near the powerhouse we’ve grown accustomed to. That win, combined with the streak, creates a touch of inflation in Syracuse’s price.

History also leans toward the Blue Devils in this series, with Duke holding a 4-1 all-time edge over the Orange, and each of those four victories coming by at least two touchdowns. With a more proven foundation and the momentum of last week’s performance, I see Duke continuing its climb and doing enough to pull away.

Take Duke minus the points.

My selection is on Arkansas plus the points over Notre Dame at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Notre Dame finally got in the win column last week with a 56-point outburst against Purdue, but I’m not sold that one strong showing makes up for the Irish’s shaky 1-2 start. The offense clicked, sure, but their defense again looked vulnerable, allowing Purdue to move the ball effectively. This isn’t the look of a trustworthy favorite.

Arkansas, meanwhile, comes in battle-tested and hungry after back-to-back road setbacks, including an upset loss at Memphis last time out. Despite the defeats, the Razorbacks’ offense has been firing, piling up 174 points across their first four games. That kind of production gives them a real chance to go score-for-score against Notre Dame. Add in the urgency factor with Tennessee looming on deck, and this sets up as a prime bounce-back spot for the Hogs.

With their firepower, Arkansas should have every opportunity to keep this matchup competitive.

Take Arkansas plus the points.

My selection is on the ‘under’ between Florida State and Virginia at 7 pm et on Friday.

We’re working with a lofty total here, one that simply doesn’t match the history of this series. You’d have to go back nine meetings — all the way to 2002 — to find the last time a Florida State–Virginia clash even sniffed a number this high. That alone sets the stage for value on the low side.

Yes, both teams enter Friday with a combined 6-0-1 o/u mark, but I see that as the key driver behind this inflated line. Florida State has breezed through its schedule, notching three wins against Alabama (in upset fashion), Texas A&M Commerce, and Kent State. While the Seminoles have piled up points, only Alabama represented a legitimate defensive test. Virginia, meanwhile, is off to a strong 3-1 start with its lone loss coming at N.C. State, and I do believe the Cavaliers can slow down Florida State’s offensive rhythm more than their recent opponents.

This is also the highest posted total we’ve seen in any Virginia game this season by a wide margin. With this being the first meeting between these programs since 2019, I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a cautious, somewhat methodical feeling-out process early. Combine that with the short week and the likelihood of some offensive regression, and the ‘under’ becomes the logical play.

Take the ‘under’ between Florida State and Virginia.

My selection is on the under between Army and East Carolina at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

While the history between these programs suggests fireworks, the current versions of these offenses tell a different story. Army showed some life in a wild second-half rally against North Texas last week, but that performance feels like an outlier when you consider it had managed only 51 points combined through its first two contests. Their ground-based attack is built to chew clock, not pile up points consistently.

As for East Carolina, last week’s game against BYU was the perfect setup for its offense to show something, playing from behind nearly all night. Instead, the Pirates sputtered, managing just 13 points and making it back-to-back unders. This unit simply isn’t producing the way it has in years past, and a short week doesn’t help matters.

Both defenses should benefit from their opponents’ deliberate approaches, and I expect the pace to crawl with plenty of time-consuming drives on both sides. The recent head-to-head scorelines are misleading here—I think Thursday’s meeting looks a lot more like a grinder.

Take the under.

My selection is on East Carolina plus the points over BYU at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

The Pirates come into this one with confidence, riding back-to-back wins and having covered three straight contests dating back to their Week 1 underdog role at N.C. State. ECU has shown resilience early in the season, and with a daunting stretch of games ahead, this is a spot they can’t afford to let slip away. Their offense has been efficient enough to keep them competitive, and their defense has stepped up at key moments.

BYU, meanwhile, sits undefeated at 2-0 but hasn’t been tested since September 6th. While the extra rest is a plus on paper, it can also create a bit of rust, especially early in the game. The Cougars are the more physical side, but laying this kind of number feels inflated against a scrappy ECU squad that has already proven it can hang with quality competition. The Pirates should be able to stay within striking distance deep into the fourth quarter and have the potential to pull the outright upset.

Take East Carolina plus the points.

ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Virginia minus the points over Stanford at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

Stanford delivered a stunning double-digit 'upset' win at home against Boston College last Saturday. Note that the Cardinal scored more points in that game (30) than they had in their first two contests combined (23). That victory had a lot to do with Boston College's sloppy performance as it turned the football over three times without gaining a single takeaway. I expect a much different story to unfold this week as the Cardinal head on the ACC road to face Virginia. The Cavaliers offense has been humming in the early going this season, producing 48, 31 and 55 points through their first three games. Last week, they racked up 700 yards of total offense. That's impressive no matter who the opposition is (it was FCS squad William & Mary). Of note, Virginia has scored 86 points in its last two games despite not benefiting from a single extra offensive possession (no takeaways). Stanford turned the football over four times in its first two road games of the season. Take Virginia (10*).

My selection is on South Carolina plus the points over Missouri at 7 pm et on Saturday.

South Carolina’s perfect start came to an end in disappointing fashion last week against Vanderbilt, but that result sets up a buy-low opportunity here. The Gamecocks are better than they showed in that performance, and catching this many points in conference play gives us plenty of cushion. Expect them to play with urgency after getting humbled at home, and their defense in particular should be motivated to deliver a bounce-back effort.

Missouri is certainly off to a strong start at 3-0 both SU and ATS, but I’m not convinced they’re quite as dominant as the market suggests. Their rout of Louisiana was expected, and while the win over Kansas was impressive, it still came by only 11 points in a rivalry spot. With three straight home games to open the year, the Tigers haven’t yet faced many challenges, and this could prove to be a tricky test against a Gamecocks squad eager to prove last week was a fluke. The points look generous in what should be a closer-than-expected SEC clash.

Take South Carolina plus the points.

My selection is on Marshall minus the points over Middle Tennessee State at 7 pm et on Saturday.

Marshall finally earned its first win of the season last week, dominating FCS opponent Eastern Kentucky 38-7. That was a much-needed victory following an 'upset' loss at home against FBS newcomer Missouri State the week previous. Here, we'll lay the points with the Thundering Herd as they catch the Blue Raiders of Middle Tennessee State ripe for the picking off last Saturday's 'upset' win at Nevada. That victory was about as ugly as they come as the Blue Raiders scored just 14 points in a one-point win. The only other time we saw MTSU play at home this season it was blasted 34-14 as a two-touchdown favorite against FCS opponent Austin Peay. Take Marshall (8*).

Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas minus the points over West Virginia at 6 pm et on Saturday.

While West Virginia was stunning Pittsburgh in overtime in the latest edition of the 'Backyard Brawl', Kansas was sitting idle, still fuming over its missed opportunity in its own rivalry showdown with Missouri a week earlier. I like the Jayhawks chances of bouncing back in a big way in its Big 12 opener at home on Saturday. Keep in mind, West Virginia is just one game removed from an 'upset' loss at Ohio. Kansas, despite losing against a good Missouri team, has produced a whopping 108 points through three games and has outscored the opposition 77-14 at home (albeit against two inferior foes). I like the 'get right' spot for Kansas as it opens a critical two-game homestand in-conference. Take Kansas (10*).

My selection is on Temple plus the points over Georgia Tech at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

Temple is fresh off a 42-3 beatdown at home against Oklahoma last week. Nothing went right for the Owls in that difficult matchup and that result will likely have bettors lining up to fade them as they head on the road to face Georgia Tech on Saturday. Of course, the Yellow Jackets are fresh off an 'upset' last-second win at home against Clemson last week. Georgia Tech is now a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS this season and will pick back up on ACC action with a trip to Wake Forest next week. We'll grab the generous helping of points in a game that should be closer than expected. Take Temple (8*).

My selection is on Connecticut minus the points over Ball State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Ball State may have gotten into the win column last week, but the victory over FCS foe New Hampshire doesn’t carry much weight. Prior to that, the Cardinals offense was completely ineffective, managing just three total points in trips to Purdue and Auburn. Last week’s 34-point outburst feels more like an outlier than a sign of true improvement, especially with the step back up in competition here.

Connecticut, on the other hand, has shown plenty of fight despite its 0-2 start. The Huskies took Syracuse to overtime before falling short, and then came up just shy in a high-scoring affair against Delaware. The offense has been consistently productive, and I expect it to continue clicking at home. Defensively, UConn is stronger than last week’s result suggests, and this looks like an ideal spot for them to steady the ship against a Ball State squad that has struggled badly outside of last week’s cupcake matchup.

Take Connecticut minus the points.

My selection is on the under between UAB and Tennessee at 12:45 pm et on Saturday.

This number feels like it’s been pushed too high based on perception rather than expectation. Tennessee is coming off last week’s shootout against Georgia, but this matchup sets up much differently. The Volunteers are heavy favorites here, and after such an emotional and exhausting loss, it makes sense that they’d look to slow things down, get control, and avoid the kind of wide-open track meet we saw a week ago.

UAB’s offensive outputs have been decent on paper, but digging deeper shows they came against Alabama State, Navy, and Akron — hardly defenses that serve as reliable measuring sticks. Against an SEC defense on the road, points won’t come nearly as easy. Tennessee, meanwhile, doesn’t need to hang 40+ here to put this game away; they’ll likely settle for a methodical, balanced effort.

Both teams have been perfect to the over so far this season, which I think has inflated this total beyond where it should be. With Tennessee dictating tempo and UAB unlikely to hold up their end offensively, I expect this one to finish comfortably beneath the number.

Take the under.

My selection is on Army minus the points over North Texas at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Army should come into this one refreshed and confident following its bye week. The Black Knights had a rollercoaster start to the season, suffering a stunning loss to Tarleton State before bouncing back with a gritty win on the road at Kansas State. That kind of response speaks volumes, and with extra preparation time, I expect Army to be locked in. Their ground-heavy style can be difficult to prepare for, particularly with the added wrinkle of fresh legs and a full week to scheme.

North Texas has impressed at 3-0, but I’m not convinced they’re as strong as the record suggests. Last week’s rout of Washington State was more about timing than dominance, as the Cougars were in a vulnerable spot coming off an emotional home win over San Diego State. Facing a disciplined, physical Army team at West Point is a very different challenge. This feels like a step up in class for UNT, and I believe the Black Knights’ methodical approach will wear them down over four quarters.

Take Army minus the points.

My selection is on Louisville minus the points over Bowling Green at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Louisville checks in 2-0 SU but 0-2 ATS but there's no shame in 34 and 14-point wins over Eastern Kentucky and James Madison, respectively. We'll back the Cardinals minus the boatload of points on Saturday as they come off their bye week and host Bowling Green, which just 'upset' Liberty as a six-point home underdog last week. While some will look to fade Louisville as a big favorite ahead of its tough road game against Pittsburgh next week, we'll go the other way as I feel this line could be even higher. Take Louisville (8*).

Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the under between Iowa and Rutgers at 8 pm et on Friday.

Rutgers has opened the season in explosive fashion, piling up 139 points in three wins. That said, context matters: the Scarlet Knights have leaned on a soft early schedule, playing all three games at home, including last week’s mismatch against FCS Norfolk State. Friday marks a major step up as they face an Iowa team they’ve never beaten before (0-4 all-time). Notably, all four of those previous meetings have stayed under the current number, highlighted by a 22-0 Iowa win last season that was just 3-0 at halftime.

While some questions linger about whether this year’s Hawkeyes defense is at the level of past seasons, it passed its only real test so far with a strong performance against Iowa State on the road. Their 47-point outburst last week against Massachusetts was more about the Minutemen’s deficiencies than Iowa suddenly transforming into an offensive juggernaut. This remains a team built on running the football and controlling tempo, with 132 rushing attempts compared to only 71 passes through three games.

That approach, combined with Rutgers facing its first legitimate defensive challenge of the year, sets up for a far slower, lower-scoring game than what we’ve seen in the Scarlet Knights’ soft early schedule.

Take the under.

My selection is on Rice minus the points over Charlotte at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

Charlotte needed everything it had in the tank in last week's 42-35 win over FCS squad Monmouth, rushing for 183 yards on 41 attempts while completing 26-of-30 passes for 382 yards. The fact that the 49ers still won by 'only' seven points against an FCS opponent was concerning and it marked just their first victory of the season following consecutive lopsided defeats against Appalachian State and North Carolina. Rice knows its identity as it has employed a run-heavy approach in starting the campaign 2-1. The Owls lone defeat came against a good Houston team so there's really no reason to knock them entering this winnable road game. Note that Rice has committed only two turnovers through three games while Charlotte has coughed the football up a whopping seven times already. Take Rice (8*).

My selection is on Arizona State minus the points over Texas State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday.

Arizona State is coming off a stunning 'upset' loss as a near-touchdown favorite at Mississippi State last Saturday. That dropped the Sun Devils to 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS on the season. I'm confident we'll see them bounce back on Saturday as they return home to host Texas State. The Bobcats are a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS including an 'upset' victory on the road against Texas-San Antonio last week. Texas State has impressively produced 95 points through two contests but let's keep things in perspective as Eastern Michigan and UTSA isn't on the same plane as Arizona State defensively. The Sun Devils are projected to be one of the Big 12's best teams and absolutely everything is still on the table despite last week's disappointing loss. This game has to serve as a jumping off point for ASU before it heads to Waco to challenge Baylor in its Big 12 opener next week. Keeping in mind, the Bobcats gave the Sun Devils a serious run, at home mind you, last year, I expect them to have the home side's full attention here. Take Arizona State (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Boston College and Stanford at 10:30 pm et on Saturday.

Boston College was involved in a wild, high-scoring double-overtime game in East Lansing last week, ultimately falling by a 42-40 score against the Spartans. That result was somewhat misleading, at least from a totals perspective. The second quarter was a wild one with Boston College scoring three touchdowns and Michigan State contributing one. Of note, after allowing the Spartans to reach the end zone again just over two minutes into the third quarter they didn't allow another touchdown until overtime. Meanwhile, Boston College scored its final touchdown of regulation time before the end of the first half (it was held to two field goals in the second half). Stanford is 0-2 and will need to lean on its defense if it wants to avoid a third straight loss as its offense is going nowhere right now. Last week at BYU, the Cardinal could muster just a fourth quarter field goal in a 27-3 loss. In Week 0, Stanford didn't produce an offensive touchdown until nearly six minutes into the fourth quarter (its only offensive touchdown of the game in a 23-20 loss at Hawaii). Defensively, the Cardinal haven't been bad. Against Hawaii, they allowed two first half touchdowns but limited the Rainbow Warriors to just three field goals in the second half. Last week they went a stretch of 29 minutes of game time without allowing a touchdown against BYU (and gave up just two touchdowns in the entire game). Take the under (8*).

SEC Game of the Month. My selection is on Florida plus the points over LSU at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

I don't think there's any question the Gators got caught looking past South Florida last Saturday. Florida clearly thought it could simply suit up and cruise to a 2-0 record ahead of this SEC opener against LSU. That wasn't the case as the Bulls hung around and ultimately pulled off a second straight 'upset' victory to open their season, 18-16 in The Swamp. Here, we'll back the Gators as they look to regain their footing on the road against LSU. The Tigers impressed in a season-opening 17-10 road win over Clemson but 'only' defeated Louisiana Tech by 16 points in their home opener last week. If there's one thing we know about Brian Kelly's Tigers it's that they're inconsistent. They've been positively dominant defensively through two weeks but I expect Florida to break through offensively in this contest. With that being said, we're talking about a game with the total set in the mid-40's. I'm comfortable grabbing the generous helping of points with the underdog Gators in a game that figures to go down to the wire. Note that the last three meetings in this series have been decided by double-digits. The last time we saw a streak of that nature (meetings decided by more than a touchdown) was 2011-2013 and prior to that 1998-2003. In other words, (relatively) close games have been the norm in this series. Take Florida (10*).

My selection is on Miami minus the points over South Florida at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.

It's a shame they'll only likely have him for one season, but the Hurricanes seem to have found their quarterback in Carson Beck. Miami is off to a 2-0 start to the campaign but failed to cover the spread in its 45-3 rout of FCS opponent Bethune-Cookman last week. Saturday's opponent is no pushover as South Florida has shaken up the college football landscape with consecutive 'upset' wins over Boise State at home and Florida on the road. The Bulls were thought to be an improved team this season but no one could have expected to come roaring out of the gates the way they have. The problem here is that they face a Miami squad that appears to be in midseason form and comes off that glorified scrimmage against an FCS opponent last week. While it's only Week 3 you do have to wonder how much South Florida has in the tank both physically and emotionally and with the schedule about to lighten up beginning next week with a home date against Charlotte, the Bulls can be excused if they fall well short in this tough spot. Take Miami (8*).

MAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Kent State plus the points over Buffalo at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Kent State was projected to be the MAC's worst team at the onset of the season and nothing has really changed as the Golden Flashes have played just one game - a 62-14 rout at the hands of Texas Tech on the road last week. I do like the Golden Flashes chances of offering some resistance against Buffalo in their MAC opener on Saturday, however. This is a 'revenge' game for Kent State after it wrapped up its 0-12 free-fall of a 2024 season with a 43-7 loss at Buffalo last November. There's really nowhere for the Golden Flashes to go but up as a program in 2025 and I look for them to make a statement by putting forth a competitive effort against the Bulls on Saturday. Buffalo checks in 1-1, as expected, after losing but covering in its opener at Minnesota and then routing FCS opponent St. Francis (PA) 45-6 at home last Saturday. I am fairly high on the Bulls this year (we won with them in that season-opening ATS victory at Minnesota) but prefer backing them in an underdog role. I simply feel they're laying too many points against a Kent State squad that still has a glimmer of hope at this early stage of the season. Take Kent State (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Houston at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

Houston saw its rout of Rice creep 'over' the total on Saturday but I think the Cougars are in line for plenty of 'under' results this season. The Cougars are working in a new starting quarterback this year in Conner Weigman. He's been solid but certainly not spectacular through two games. In Week 1, Houston rolled to a 27-0 win over FCS squad Stephen F. Austin. In that game, the Cougars found the end zone just under 10 minutes into the first quarter and then again midway through the second quarter but only scored one more TD the rest of the way and none over the game's final 23+ minutes. Last week against Rice, Houston didn't reach the end zone until there was less than a minute remaining in the first half and then not again until over halfway through the third quarter. Defensively, the Cougars are in midseason form. They held Rice out of the end zone until nearly six minutes into the fourth quarter (when they already led 21-3). Colorado is 1-1 following a loss to Georgia Tech and a win over FBS newcomer Delaware. Of note, the Buffaloes scored less than three minutes into the game against the Yellow Jackets in Week 1 but then didn't reach the end zone again until the game's final nine minutes. Defensively, they've held up well. They didn't allow an offensive touchdown against Georgia Tech until the last five minutes of the first half. Delaware couldn't only muster one offensive score, a touchdown in the final minute of the first half last week. This total is set relatively low but it's on the mark in my opinion. Take the under (8*).

ACC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between N.C. State and Wake Forest at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

Both of these offenses exploded on Saturday albeit in much different environments. N.C. State held off Virginia 35-31 to improve to 2-0 on the season while Wake Forest rolled past Western Carolina 42-10 to also move to 2-0. I expect a more measured approach from both offenses as they open up ACC play on a short week of preparation on Thursday. Wake Forest RB Demond Claiborne is one of the best backs in the conference. He suffered a rib injury early in Week 1 but was able to play against Western Carolina and went off for nearly 200 rushing yards. I do wonder how hard they lean on Claiborne in this game with only four days off to recover between games and a banged-up offensively line missing some key parts. I think we'll see the Demon Deacons try to effectively shorten proceedings as a sizeable home underdog and that means plenty of quick passes, a healthy dose of Claiborne and QB Robby Ashford with his legs. While N.C. State went off offensively on Saturday, it has actually yet to score a fourth quarter point this season, showing its tendency to endure scoring droughts. Credit the N.C. State defense as it held Virginia scoreless over the game's final 20+ minutes in Week 2. Last year's matchup between these two teams was a high-scoring one with Wake Forest prevailing 34-30. We'll call for a different story to unfold this time around. Take the under (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on San Diego State plus the points over Washington State at 10:15 pm et on Saturday.

San Diego State has nowhere to go but up after a three-win 2024 season that ended with six straight losses. The Aztecs kicked off the 2025 campaign with a 42-0 blowout victory at home against Stony Brook last week. Of course, that result told us little about how good the Aztecs can be but I do think they're well-positioned to pick up another victory in Week 2 as they travel to face Washington State.

The Aztecs sagged defensively down the stretch last year as they had an inexperienced unit that wasn't able to hold up. This year, the experience is there with returning starters at every position save for nose tackle. There are standouts at all of the key positions and pitching a shutout last week, even against an FCS foe, was a positive start.

Offensively, QB Jayden Denegal - a transfer from Michigan - looked good in his debut last week as he took care of the football (no interceptions) and threw fo ra score. RB Lucky Sutton should be the focal point of the offense moving forward as he runs behind a terrific offensive line.

Washington State barely eked out a 13-10 home win over Idaho last week. The Cougars reached the end zone less than four minutes into the second quarter but were held out of it the rest of the way in that narrow victory. There were already concerns on both sides of the football heading into the season with so many key performers from last year's squad transferring out of the program. Those concerns were only magnified in last week's contest. 

The Cougars defense did hold up well in the season-opening win but that was against Idaho. I do think a revenge-minded Aztecs squad (Washington State went on the road and won last year's meeting 29-26) will provide some headaches on Saturday. There's potential all over the Cougars defense but very little returning talent and experience. If the offense is unable to stay on the field for extended stretches, the defense will struggle and I think that's precisely what we'll see in this contest. Take San Diego State (10*).

My selection is on Florida minus the points over South Florida at 4:15 pm et on Saturday.

South Florida pulled off a stunning 34-7 'upset' win at home against Boise State last week. I don't think the Bulls will put the Gators on 'upset alert' this week, however. 

Credit South Florida for that impressive Week 1 showing. Of note, the Bulls didn't find the end zone until there were less than seven minutes remaining in the first half. The game essentially turned on a fake punt that USF took all the way to the house midway through the third quarter. While it was a strong performance overall by the Bulls, it was also a disjointed one from a Boise State team that's working in a lot of new parts.

Here, USF will face a much tougher challenge on the road against an experienced Florida squad that already appears to be in midseason form. The Gators returned a fumble for a touchdown in the game's first two minutes and never looked back from there in a 55-0 rout of FCS squad LIU-Brooklyn last week. There was a stretch in the second quarter where Florida scored three offensive touchdowns in less than seven minutes. 

The Gators are loaded on both sides of the football and will look go keep the momentum building ahead of a massive showdown with LSU on the road next week. Look for USF to serve as nothing more than a speedbump on Saturday. Take Florida.

My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Central Michigan at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Central Michigan checks in off an 'upset' win on the road against San Jose State last week. It's hard to say how good the Chippewas really are though as they scored just 16 points in the victory and were helped by three Spartans turnovers. They'll take a big step up in class this week as they stay on the road to take on Pittsburgh.

The Panthers got off to a predictably hot start, rolling to a 61-9 win over FCS squad Duquesne last Saturday. After giving up a touchdown less than five minutes into the second quarter, Pitt held Duquesne out of the end zone the rest of the way. I liked the way the Panthers continued to pour it on late with three unanswered scores in the game's final nine minutes - even when the result was already long decided. This game will serve as a jumping off point before the schedule toughens up with a trip to West Virginia for the Backyard Brawl next week. 

I see Pitt as a team on a mission this year after it crumbled with six straight losses down the stretch last season, including a Bowl loss to Toledo (in six overtimes). Keep in mind, this was a Panthers squad that reeled off seven straight victories to open the campaign. 

Central Michigan figures to be satisfied after notching an unlikely road win to open the season. The Chips still have a big question mark at quarterback as neither Joe Labas or Angel Flores have staked their claim to the starting role. In a game like this, where they project to be playing from behind, the Chips won't be able to rely on their ground attack alone to keep pace. Take Pittsburgh (8*).

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Connecticut and Syracuse at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring season openers last week and I think this rematch from last year has shootout potential as well. 

Connecticut returns most of the key pieces from last year's offense including experienced signal-caller Joe Fagnano. Albeit against an FCS opponent in Central Connecticut State, UConn went ballistic on offense last week, scoring 59 points. There was a stretch in the first half where the Huskies scored three offensive touchdowns in nine minutes. I liked the way the Huskies continued to pour it on late, despite the end result no longer being in question. 

On the flip side, the Huskies yielded a touchdown just over two minutes into the game and ultimately recorded just one sack of CCU quarterbacks. Without generating a great deal of pressure, the Huskies could be in for a long day defensively - just as they were in last year's 31-24 loss. 

The Orange scored an admirable 26 points but still lost by 19 in last week's season opener on the road against Tennessee. There were certainly positives offensively. While new starting QB Steve Angeli - a Notre Dame transfer - is no Kyle McCord, he has enough weapons around him to keep the offense humming this year. 

Defensively, the Orange feature a lot of talent but also aggressive play-calling and a gambler-like mentality. There was a stretch against the Volunteers in which Syracuse allowed four offensive touchdowns in 20 minutes of game action last week. The Huskies will certainly test this unit again this week. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Northern Illinois and Maryland at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

Both of these teams are coming off wins in their respective season openers although those two contests played out much differently.

Northern Illinois delivered a narrow 19-17 victory over FCS squad Holy Cross in its home opener. The Huskies didn't score an offensive touchdown in that game until there were less than five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter (they did return a kickoff for a touchdown earlier in the quarter). Here, they'll be up against a Maryland team that allowed a touchdown just over midway through the first quarter against Florida Atlantic but then kept the Owls off the scoreboard the rest of the way - even in a lopsided 32-point rout.

While they did produce 39 points in that win over FAU, the Terrapins actually didn't reach the end zone on offense until there were less than eight minutes left in the first half. From there a comedy of errors by the Owls offense led to a number of Terps scores (FAU threw a whopping six interceptions in that game). Maryland will be hard-pressed to force run-happy NIU to throw the football often in this one. The Huskies attempted just 24 passes (and completed only 14) in last week's contest.

While this is certainly a low posted total, I believe we'll see the Terps manage this contest properly in hopes of securing a second straight victory (and with another likely win coming up next week against FCS opponent Towson). NIU knows the blueprint to staging an upset involves playing conservatively on offense and letting its defense take care of the rest (remember last year's Week 2 upset at Notre Dame). Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between TCU and North Carolina at 8 pm et on Monday.

Week 1 of the college football season will wrap up with an intriguing showdown between TCU and North Carolina on Monday night in Chapel Hill. I believe this contest has true shootout potential.

The knee-jerk reaction may be to go with the line move and back the Horned Frogs as they seemingly have a lot less uncertainty compared to the Bill Bellichick sideshow at UNC. I do think the Tar Heels have the pieces in place to put up some points and get involved in their fair share of shootouts this season, however, especially with the defense being in a state of flux following some key transfers out of the program.

Bill's son Steve takes over the Tar Heels defense that should make his mark but it will undoubtedly take some time after Beau Atkinson and Amare Campbell transferred to Ohio State and Penn State, respectively. The cupboard isn't bare but this is isn't exactly a defensive unit brimming with talent, or a successful pedigree. 

Offensively, South Alabama dual-threat transfer QB Gio Lopez takes over the reins of the offense. Losing RB Omarion Hampton to the NFL's Los Angeles Chargers certainly hurts but there's still plenty of talent and explosiveness to work with. Perhaps most importantly, the Tar Heels offensive line is in fairly good shape with three returning starters and key transfers filling out the rest. Watch for WR Jordan Shipp to be a key factor. 

TCU is set at QB with Josh Hoover returning. He's one of the more unheralded but talented starting QB's in the nation as far as I'm concerned. The Horned Frogs of course lost plenty of talent in the NFL but I don't expect to see a giant drop-off in offensive production. Like the Tar Heels, the Horned Frogs return three starters on the offensive line and have breakout candidates at wide receiver in Eric McAlister and Idaho transfer Jordan Dwyer. Hoover threw for just shy of 4,000 yards and 27 touchdowns a year ago. 

My concern for TCU is in the secondary where it is rather green at the cornerback position. The return of NG Markis Deal from injury should help up front but this is a unit that is a little undersized on the outside and certainly has its share of question marks. This total is high for a reason. Take the over (8*).

Game of the Week. My selection is on Notre Dame minus the points over Miami at 7:30 pm et on Sunday.

Looking ahead at their schedule, the Hurricanes might not lose another game until November - if at all, but I do think they lose this very difficult season-opener against Notre Dame. 

The Irish are of course coming off a tremendous college football playoff that saw them reach the National Championship Game against Ohio State where they ultimately fell by a 34-23 score. While there are plenty of new faces taking over key roles this season, the cupboard is amply stocked to say the last. I think the new blood brings some new energy while there's more than enough returning talent to keep that hunger after last January's disappointment. 

Miami welcomes QB Carson Beck to the fold by way of Georgia where he starred for the Bulldogs. He suffered an elbow injury in last year's SEC Championship Game and that kept him out of the CFP. While I do think Beck will be a good fit in the Canes offense, there are bound to be some growing pains as he takes over from first overall NFL draft pick Cam Ward. Unlike Notre Dame, Miami doesn't have a lot of sure things around Beck on offense. There's no doubt WR Xavier Restrepo will be missed. It only seemed like he was around the program for the last decade. 

Defensively, the Canes have a good mix of talent and experience across the board but like the Irish have a lot of new starters (only four defensive starters return from last year's team). 

To put it simply, I'm just not as high on the Canes as a program under head coach Mario Cristobal as I am the Irish under Marcus Freeman. It took a bit of time, but Notre Dame is Freeman's program now and I think the Irish get off to a positive start, just as they did last year against Texas A&M. Take Notre Dame (10*).

Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Temple and Massachusetts at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

This total has dropped since its opener, and rightfully so in my opinion.

With just a couple of days to go before kickoff, Temple is still not revealing who will start at quarterback. That's a problem. The Owls figured to have a QB competition in Fall camp but the fact that it's still not settled is concerning as none of their options are all that great.

The good news is, the offensive line figures to be a strength and there's reason to believe we'll see the Owls lean on transfer RB Jay Ducker to help move the chains, and eat some clock in the process, in Saturday's opener. There's little talent or experience returning at the wide receiver position. Temple's leading returning receiver is Kajiya Hollawayne after he posted nine catches for 120 yards last year.

The defense didn't hold up well last season but essentially struggled in the games you expected it to while holding up alright in others. A similar story should play out this year and this is certainly a manageable opening week matchup against what figures to be a punchless Massachusetts offense.

The Minutemen are expected to run an option-based offense of sorts but I don't doubt they'll be growing pains early on. The cupboard is by no means well-stocked, noting UMass returns only one starter on the offensive. In fact, only two offensive starters return from last season, not that it's necessarily a bad thing after yet another putrid season on that side of the football.

I do think the Minutemen defense has plenty of upside with a slew of transfers that will look to breathe life into a unit that struggled for most of last season. The do of Joe Harasymiak and Jared Keyte will run the defense and I think that side of the football can find some success early on thanks to a manageable early schedule. One of the biggest problems for the defense last year was the offense's inability to stay on the field. I look for the offense to at least eat some clock and churn out some yardage by using the option, even if scoring continues to prove difficult. That helps the defense stay fresh if nothing else. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Syracuse and Tennessee at 12 noon et on Saturday.

The Orange offense doesn't get better by losing QB Kyle McCord. That's not to mention RB LeQuint Allen. Both have moved onto the NFL, leaving Syracuse to move on and begin the 2025 season with a difficult challenge against Tennessee in Atlanta. Note that the Orange not only have to replace their starting QB and RB from a year ago but also deal with departures at WR and on the offensive. Such is life in college football, but there's no denying there's likely going to be some growing pains for this offense.

The good news is, the defense is in good shape with anchors LB Derek McDonals and S Duce Chestnut returning. I do think the Orange defense can hang on a neutral field against a Volunteers squad that is also dealing with changes on offense. While the wheels did come off for the Syracuse defense eventually last year, its start wasn't all that bad and a similar story could play out in 2025 as the offense evolves. 

Tennessee isn't one of the SEC's top dogs at the outset this season. QB Nico Iamaleava's, as he's aptly-named, left for UCLA. Turnovers were a problem for incoming QB Joey Aguilar last year and I'm not convinced he'll have the entire playbook at his disposal right out of the gates this season. There are also new faces in the backfield and on the offensive line. In short, there are more questions than answers when it comes to Josh Heupel's offense. I have no doubt that this group will settle in but I'm not sure we'll see it all come together in Week 1.

Defensively, the Vols are loaded. They get seven starters back from a unit that dominated at times last season. There's talent and experience across the board and the defense will be relied upon heavily to get the team off to a strong start ahead of a key Week 3 showdown with Georgia. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Kennesaw State and Wake Forest at 7 pm et on Friday.

All indications are that Kennesaw State will have a different look on offense with a run-focused approach as it looks to rebound following a two-win campaign a year ago. Dexter Williams takes over at quarterback after transferring from Georgia Southern. He saw limited action last season but optimism is high as he had a cup of coffee with Indiana prior to that. The cupboard is by no means full on offense with little proven talent at wide receiver and tight end. Transfers will fill out three of the five spots on the offensive line. 

Defensively, the Owls had an up-and-down 2024 season but do return eight starters from last year's team including top tackler Donelius Johnson. With excellent depth and talent in the secondary, the Owls are set up well to defend another offense in flux in Wake Forest in Friday's opener.

Wake Forest, like Kennesaw State, figures to lean heavily on its ground attack with standout RB Demond Claiborne returning. Robby Ashford has been named starting quarterback after transferring following time spent with Oregon, Auburn and South Carolina. The fact that he didn't stick or find a permanent starting job with any of those programs is telling in my opinion. There's not a lot of returning talent at wide receiver or more importnatly on the offensive line. 

Defense has to be a focus for the Demon Deacons after they gave up a whopping 32.5 points per game last season. This unit could still be an issue in 2025 but I don't think it will be here in Week 1 as this is a manageable matchup against a rebuilding Kennesaw State offense. There are plenty of bright spots on the Wake defense that should shine before the schedule toughens up around Week 3. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Buffalo plus the points over Minnesota at 8 pm et on Thursday August 28th. 

The Bulls are projected to contend for a MAC Championship this season after finishing last year with five straight wins including a lopsided Bahamas Bowl victory over Liberty. Questions at the quarterback position along with Minnesota's pedigree as a tough Big Ten squad have this line considerably higher than it should be in my opinion. 

Buffalo took its lumps on occasion during a nine-win 2024 campaign. That included an early season trip to Missouri that saw it lose 38-0 but still nearly cover the spread (were it not for the Tigers orchestrating a mind-boggling final touchdown drive in a blowout affair). 

The Bulls return a ton of talent on both sides of the football. Senior RB Al-Jay Henderson comes of a 1,000-yard rushing season while junior WR Victor Snow is more than capable of taking the top off of opposing defenses. Whoever ends up leading the offense at quarterback will have a fully stocked cupboard to work with, not to mention an experienced offensive line. 

Defensively, the Bulls are loaded - by MAC standards at least. I see this as a manageable Week 1 matchup against a Minnesota offense that will be starting a redshirt freshman quarterback in Drake Lindsey and figures to go run-heavy with standout RB Darius Taylor. The offensive line isn't completely set with potentially three new starters and that could open the door for the Bulls to come up with some splash plays defensively. 

Defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman was nabbed by Miami leading to doubts that this unit can repeat last year's strong, dare-I-say elite performance. There are plenty of guys ready to step into starting roles but not a lot of proven talent or experience, particularly in the secondary. Losing last year's top tackler LB Cody Lindenberg to the NFL certainly hurts the Gophers in the second level. 

Last year, the Gophers opened with a narrow 19-17 home loss against North Carolina. While they're much better-positioned to open with a victory, I think winning by nearly three scores is a lot to ask. Take Buffalo (8*).

My selection is on East Carolina plus the points over N.C. State at 7 pm et on Thursday August 28th.

This sets up as a quick revenge spot for N.C. State after it lost 26-21 at the hands of East Carolina in last year's Military Bowl. More than that, the Wolfpack will be looking to bounce back after a down season that saw them win just six games with only five of those victories coming against FBS opponents. I don't think this sets up as a gimme for N.C. State though.

East Carolina has to be feeling pretty good about itself after an eight-win 2024 season that culminated with that victory over N.C. State. The Pirates have plenty of returning talent on both sides of the football and also some continuity on the coaching staff after Blake Harrell stepped in and helped the team turn the tide last year. 

N.C. State replaces both its offensive and defensive coordinators from a year ago. While the return of QB CJ Bailey is encouraging, he'll need to deal with changes under new coordinator Kurt Roper. The offensive line in particular is in a state of flux, likely featuring three new starters. 

It's a similar story on defense. The Wolfpack weren't good on that side of the football a year ago and will be led by a new coordinator in D.J. Eliot. They return just one of their top six tacklers from last season and will be relying on transfer JJ Johnson to lead a youthful secondary that I believe has the potential to get exposed in this Week 1 matchup. 

I don't feel the Wolfpack have one of the stronger home field advantages in the ACC and feel they should be on 'upset alert' in this rematch with the Pirates. Take East Carolina (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Boise State and South Florida at 5:30 pm et on Thursday August 28th.

I can understand the logic behind this total being set in the 60's, after all the last time we saw South Florida it was lighting up the scoreboard to the tune of 40+ points in four of its final six games last season including a wild five-overtime 41-39 victory over San Jose State in the Hawaii Bowl on Christmas Eve.

Boise State projects as one of the nation's top-25 teams and comes off an electric year offensively that saw it score 50+ points on four different occasions. I think this season-opener will prove lower-scoring than expected, however.

South Florida has a quarterback conundrum of sorts with two potential starters in the fold in Byrum Brown - who had his season cut short due to injury last year - and Bryce Archie - who stepped in for Brown and arguably outshined him down the stretch.

Losing their two three runners from a year ago doesn't help the Bulls cause. They don't have a ton of proven talent in the passing game either with Keshaun Singleton potentially their top option after catching only 25 passes for 428 yards last year.

Defensively, the Bulls figure to be improved. They have a lot of depth thanks to the transfer portal and plenty of returning talent and experience. This is a group that did make some positive strides a year ago and can take another step forward in 2025 but it has to start in this tough matchup with Boise State.

The Broncos don't get better offensively by losing RB Ashton Jeanty to the NFL. The passing game is led by returning QB starter Maddux Madsen. He had a terrific 2024 campaign but was undoubtedly helped by opponents focusing much of their efforts on Jeanty. TE Matt Lauter might be the best option in the passing game out of the gate. While this offense will be elite once again, I think we could see a big of a slow start - relatively speaking.

Defensively, the Broncos don't get enough credit for their consistency. I like the matchup here as Boise State is absolutely loaded from the back-end in with one of the better secondaries in the nation. There's not a ton of size up front but that it lacks in that department it makes up for in athleticism and speed. I like the way this matchup sets up for the Broncos defense against a Bulls offense that might not be so sure of itself in Week 1. Take the under (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Fresno State plus the points over Kansas at 6:30 pm et on Saturday.

While Kansas may be the bigger name program or at least from the bigger name conference, Fresno State had had its share of moments in the Sun over the years and I believe the Bulldogs are a program to watch this season and worthy of a confident Week 0 wager on Saturday.

Fresno State will have a new look after a down year on offense that still was enough to reach the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl - a game the Bulldogs lost in double-overtime against Northern Illinois. Matt Entz takes over as head coach and brings along a new offensive coordinators in Josh Davis who orchestrated a big turnaround with FCS squad South Dakota last year. QB E.J. Warner, son of NFL Hall of Famer Kurt, transferred in to lead the offense. While turnover-prone throughout his three-year starting career, Warner certainly has plenty of upside and should be a good fit in this multi-pronged offensive attack. Watch for RB Bryson Donelson to be a big part of the offense right out of the gate.

Head coach Entz is a defensive wizard and has all the tools in place for the Bulldogs to succeed on that side of the football. Keep in mind, new defensive coordinator Nick Benedetto led Northern Illinois' terrific defense last year. Remember, the Huskies allowed only 14 points in a stunning early season upset of Notre Dame, on the road no less. Fresno State is loaded with returning talent from the back-end in, led by CB Al-Zillion Hamilton and this is a favorable opening week matchup against a lukewarm Kansas offense in my opinion.

The Jayhawks have certainly enjoyed some recent success but not last year as they won just six games and fell short of a Bowl berth. QB Jalon Daniels enters his sixth season and has posted mixed results throughout his career. There are going to be a host of changes outside of Daniels on offense and I think the Jayhawks are going to be in for some growing pains with question marks at wide receiver and tight end in particular.

Defensively, Kansas was abymsal last year. The Jayhawks have the potential to be much stronger up front but there is a lot of uncertainty as you get into the linebackers and the secondary.

While Kansas will benefit from a return to Lawrence after stadium renovations forced them to split time between Children's Mercy Park and Arrowhead Stadium last year, I believe expectations should be tempered and it is being asked to lay too many points in this tricky non-conference opener. Take Fresno State (10*).

My selection is on Ohio State minus the points over Notre Dame at 7:30 pm ET on Monday.

Ohio State enters this matchup in peak form, delivering three dominant performances against Tennessee, Oregon, and Texas following their surprising loss to Michigan on November 30th. The Buckeyes have shown they can rise to the occasion against elite competition, and their schedule ranks among the toughest in the nation, further justifying their status as favorites here.

Notre Dame has enjoyed an outstanding season, rattling off 13 straight victories since a shocking loss to Northern Illinois back in early September. Their most recent triumph was an upset win over Penn State in the CFP semi-finals. The Irish have also been a bettors' favorite, going 9-0-1 ATS over their last 10 games. However, this marks a significant step up in competition against a deeper and more talented Buckeyes squad.

With Ohio State firing on all cylinders and boasting a talent edge on both sides of the ball, I expect them to put an end to Notre Dame's ATS streak and claim a convincing victory.

Take Ohio State. Projected score: Ohio State 28, Notre Dame 17.

My selection is on the 'under' between Ohio State and Texas at 7:30 p.m. ET on Friday.

While Texas' overtime victory over Arizona State in the College Football Playoff quarterfinal pushed the total over, this semifinal matchup against Ohio State sets up for a much tighter and lower-scoring affair. Both teams possess elite defenses that have carried them through the season, and I expect those units to take center stage once again.

Ohio State's offense has been impressive in its first two CFP matchups, scoring 42 and 41 points, but it's worth noting that those performances came against defenses that don't measure up to Texas' caliber. The Longhorns' defense has been among the most dominant in college football this season, consistently shutting down opponents and dictating the pace of play. Even in their wild finish against Arizona State, Texas' defense was solid for the majority of the game, with lapses coming late in regulation and overtime.

On the other side, Texas' offense has shown flashes of explosiveness but will face its toughest test yet in Ohio State's defense. The Buckeyes have been a model of consistency, holding eight straight and 12 of their last 13 opponents to 21 points or fewer. Their ability to stymie both the run and pass ensures that Texas will have to work for every yard and point in this matchup.

With both teams excelling defensively and the stakes at their peak, this game has all the makings of a defensive battle where field position and time of possession are prioritized. Scoring opportunities will likely be limited, and the game flow should favor a slower, more methodical pace.

Take the under. Projected score: Ohio State 24, Texas 20.

Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Notre Dame and Penn State at 7:30 p.m. ET on Thursday.

Both Notre Dame and Penn State are coming off lower-scoring games in the College Football Playoffs, but this matchup sets up for a more offensively driven contest. Notre Dame's win over Georgia was influenced by the Bulldogs operating with a backup quarterback, leading to a conservative offensive approach. Against Penn State, the Irish face a much more explosive offense that has scored 30+ points in four straight games and six of its last seven.

Notre Dame has also been highly productive offensively, surpassing the 30-point mark in nine of its last 12 contests. While the Irish were able to dictate a slower tempo against Georgia by playing from ahead, this game projects to be a back-and-forth battle, encouraging a more open style of play. Both teams have demonstrated the ability to score consistently throughout the season, and with the total set in the mid-40s, there’s plenty of room for this game to comfortably exceed expectations.

Expect this high-stakes matchup in Miami to bring out the best in both offenses.

Take the over. Projected score: Penn State 28, Notre Dame 24.

Bowl Game of the Year. My selection is on Liberty plus the points over Buffalo at 11 am ET on Saturday.

We'll take the underdog Flames in this bowl matchup, as they look to rebound from an 'upset' road loss against Sam Houston State to close the regular season. That defeat ended a three-game winning streak for Liberty but doesn't overshadow the Flames' solid season and their ability to step up when underestimated.

Buffalo enters riding a four-game winning streak, capped by a dominant win over Kent State back in late November. However, that victory came against one of the weakest teams in FBS, and the Bulls' recent success has likely lost its momentum due to the extended layoff. While Buffalo's back-to-back ATS wins may catch bettors' attention, the long break levels the playing field, and this spread seems to overestimate their advantage.

Even with the usual bowl game uncertainties surrounding opt-outs and absences, I believe Liberty is the more motivated and prepared team, and they are undervalued in this spot. Expect the Flames to take control and deliver an outright win.

Take Liberty. Projected score: Liberty 30, Buffalo 24.

My selection is on North Texas plus the points over Texas State at 4 pm ET on Friday.

We'll grab the points with North Texas as it looks to snap a five-game ATS losing streak in this bowl game matchup. While the Mean Green Eagles have struggled down the stretch, losing five of their last six contests outright, this 'nothing to lose' situation provides them with an opportunity to regroup and deliver a strong performance.

On the other side, Texas State enters off a high-scoring 45-38 win and cover against South Alabama in its regular season finale. While the Bobcats have had a successful season, I don't see the motivation or dominance to justify laying nearly two touchdowns here, especially given the nature of bowl games, where teams often come in with varying levels of focus and preparation.

Expect a spirited effort from North Texas to keep this one within reach.

Take North Texas. Projected score: Texas State 34, North Texas 28.

My selection is on the 'over' between Notre Dame and Georgia at 4 pm ET on Thursday.

This College Football Playoff clash at the Superdome sets up as a high-scoring affair. Notre Dame enters off a controlled 27-17 victory over Indiana, but that result was shaped by the environment—a home game in mid-December with fewer offensive fireworks. In this neutral-site setting, the Irish offense should shine, having averaged over 38 points per game this season. Notre Dame has been particularly consistent down the stretch, scoring 30 or more points in eight of its last nine contests.

Georgia, meanwhile, boasts a balanced attack that has averaged 33.2 points per game against one of the toughest schedules in the nation. The Bulldogs are coming off a gritty 22-19 win over Texas in the SEC Championship, but their offense is more than capable of exploiting opportunities, particularly indoors at the Superdome.

With both teams’ offenses carrying momentum into this game, and with Georgia’s defense showing occasional vulnerability against elite competition, expect plenty of points on Wednesday night.

Take the over. Projected score: Georgia 27, Notre Dame 24.

My selection is on Ohio State minus the points over Oregon at 5 pm ET on Wednesday.

While Oregon has had an incredible season, I believe Wednesday will mark the Ducks' first setback as they face a battle-tested Ohio State team in Pasadena. The Buckeyes come in on the heels of a dominant 42-17 victory over Tennessee in the first round of the College Football Playoffs on December 21st. That recent action should benefit Ohio State, as it allowed them to maintain rhythm and even add strategic wrinkles to their game plan.

Meanwhile, Oregon hasn’t played since December 7th, which could lead to rust, especially against a high-powered team like the Buckeyes. Additionally, this game marks the Ducks' first contest on natural grass this season, a potentially significant factor in the Rose Bowl setting.

Ohio State also has the motivation of avenging a 32-31 loss to Oregon back on October 12th. The Buckeyes have improved significantly since then and are primed for a statement performance here.

Take Ohio State. Projected score: Ohio State 34, Oregon 27.

My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Arizona State at 1 pm ET on Wednesday.

Arizona State has been red-hot offensively, tallying 49 and 45 points in its last two contests during its six-game SU and ATS winning streak. However, this matchup against Texas presents a much tougher test. The Longhorns, fresh off a dominant win over Clemson, boast one of the nation’s most formidable defenses, allowing just 13.3 points per game this season.

While Texas scored 38 points in its first-round victory, it has been far from explosive offensively, failing to reach 21 points in four of its last eight games. Arizona State's defense has been reliable as well, holding every opponent this season to 31 points or fewer. With both teams stepping up in competition and the stakes higher than ever, expect a more conservative and defensive-minded approach.

Take the under. Projected score: Texas 27, Arizona State 17.

My selection is on the 'over' between Penn State and Boise State at 7:30 pm ET on Tuesday.

After a round of low-scoring blowouts in the first stage of the College Football Playoffs, I anticipate a much more competitive and high-scoring contest in this Fiesta Bowl matchup. Penn State dominated SMU in the opening round, cashing the 'under,' but that result was largely due to SMU's inability to contribute offensively. Boise State is a more formidable opponent and enters this game knowing it must be aggressive offensively to have a chance at the upset.

While Boise State has delivered three consecutive 'under' results, those came in games where it was the favorite, dictating the pace. Here, as a sizable underdog, the Broncos will likely lean on their playmaking ability to stay in the game. Penn State, meanwhile, has proven itself capable of putting up points in bunches, averaging nearly 34 points per game this season, including an even higher average on grass surfaces.

Both teams have the tools to exploit each other’s defenses, and with the stakes at their highest, this one has all the makings of a shootout.

Take the over. Projected score: Penn State 38, Boise State 28.

Bowl Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Iowa and Missouri at 2:30 pm ET on Monday.

Both teams enter this matchup following 'under' results in their respective regular-season finales, but the setup here points toward a higher-scoring affair. Iowa has shed its historically conservative offensive identity this season, averaging 28 points per game and displaying a more balanced approach. That should carry over against a Missouri defense that has surrendered over 20 points per contest this season.

On the flip side, Missouri has been in strong form offensively, averaging 31.8 points per game over its final four contests, showcasing its ability to put up points against varying levels of competition. It's unlikely the Tigers will aim to slow things down, especially given their recent scoring momentum.

While bowl games often present the risk of rust due to extended layoffs, this matchup takes place under favorable conditions in Nashville, minimizing concerns about weather disruptions. The trends also support the 'over,' with Iowa hitting the mark in five of its last seven games and Missouri doing so in three of its last four.

Take the over. Projected score: Iowa 28, Missouri 24.

My selection is on Army minus the points over Louisiana Tech at 9:15 pm ET on Saturday.

Louisiana Tech closed the regular season in stellar form, covering the spread in five straight games, including a commanding 33-0 win over Kennesaw State in its finale. However, the nearly month-long layoff since that contest could hinder its momentum heading into the Independence Bowl. The Bulldogs' level of competition during that stretch also leaves questions about how they’ll fare against a battle-tested opponent like Army.

The Black Knights enter this matchup fresh off a challenging three-week stretch, including the AAC Championship Game and their storied rivalry contest against Navy. While Army fell short in both outings, it is primed for a rebound here. The loss to Navy, where it was favored by six but lost 31-13, serves as added motivation heading into this game.

Army’s disciplined, clock-controlling offense is well-suited to frustrate Louisiana Tech, which could struggle to adjust after its extended layoff. With the Independence Bowl taking place in Shreveport, Army’s experience and preparation advantage could prove decisive in this spot.

Take Army. Projected score: Army 38, Louisiana Tech 13.

My selection is on East Carolina plus the points over N.C. State at 5:45 pm ET on Saturday.

East Carolina comes into this matchup off a disappointing loss to Navy in its regular season finale, a game that carried little weight after the Pirates had already secured Bowl eligibility. Before that stumble, ECU had been on a roll, winning four straight games (3-1 ATS) and showcasing the offensive balance and defensive grit that made it a tough out all season. With time to refocus and a prime opportunity to finish the year on a high note, the Pirates should be motivated and well-prepared for this in-state clash.

N.C. State’s season, by contrast, has been underwhelming relative to expectations. The Wolfpack salvaged a measure of pride with an 'upset' win over North Carolina to end the regular season, snapping a two-game losing streak. However, their struggles in a favored role have been glaring, as evidenced by their 1-5 ATS record when laying points this season.

With ECU boasting the ability to go toe-to-toe offensively and N.C. State struggling to assert dominance, this line feels inflated. Look for the Pirates to keep this one close and possibly spring the outright upset.

Take East Carolina. Projected score: N.C. State 28, East Carolina 27.

My selection is on Louisiana-Lafayette plus the points over TCU at 2:15 pm ET on Saturday.

The Ragin' Cajuns enter this Bowl matchup seeking redemption after a humbling 31-3 defeat to Marshall in the Sun Belt Championship Game. That loss snapped an impressive stretch where Louisiana had won eight of nine games outright and covered the spread in five of its last six contests. This is a resilient group that has consistently performed well in the underdog role and should be motivated to deliver a stronger showing in the New Mexico Bowl.

On the other side, TCU salvaged its season by winning its final three regular-season games to secure Bowl eligibility. While that turnaround was commendable, the Horned Frogs may find it difficult to maintain that momentum, especially as they take the field as double-digit favorites in what might feel like an underwhelming postseason destination.

Louisiana's balanced attack and disciplined defense should allow the Ragin' Cajuns to hang tough against a TCU squad that may struggle to sustain its recent form in this setting.

Take Louisiana-Lafayette. Projected score: TCU 27, Louisiana-Lafayette 21.

My selection is on Washington State plus the points over Syracuse at 8 pm ET on Friday.

Syracuse enters this Bowl matchup as a significant favorite, bolstered by a strong finish to its regular season with three straight wins, including a notable upset as a 12-point underdog against Miami. However, the Orange now face a cross-country trip to take on Washington State in unfamiliar territory, a potential recipe for a letdown in this mid-tier Bowl game.

The Cougars stumbled to close their season, dropping three straight games as double-digit favorites. Despite those setbacks, Washington State remains a dangerous opponent, particularly in this setting, having already proven its mettle on this field with a narrow 29-26 victory over San Diego State back in October.

With less pressure and plenty to prove, Washington State is primed to rise to the occasion and challenge Syracuse throughout this contest. The Cougars’ familiarity with the venue and their ability to keep games close make them a live underdog in this spot.

Take Washington State. Projected score: Syracuse 31, Washington State 24.

My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia Tech and Vanderbilt at 3:30 pm ET on Friday.

Georgia Tech enters this Bowl game fresh off two consecutive high-scoring contests, including a chaotic 44-42 multi-overtime loss to rival Georgia. However, those results appear to be outliers in what has otherwise been a season defined by low-scoring affairs. The 'under' has cashed in seven of the Yellow Jackets' 12 games this year, with three straight staying 'under' the total prior to their recent shootouts.

Vanderbilt also saw its regular season finale produce plenty of scoring in a 36-23 loss to Tennessee. However, the Commodores have generally struggled to put points on the board, with the 'under' going 5-0-1 in their previous six contests. It's notable that Vanderbilt hasn't scored more than 24 points in its last eight games, and its offensive ceiling remains limited.

With both teams looking to impose their will defensively and neither boasting a consistently explosive offense, I expect a slower-paced and lower-scoring matchup in this neutral-site Bowl game.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Georgia Tech 23, Vanderbilt 20.

My selection is on the 'over' between Arkansas State and Bowling Green at 9 pm ET on Thursday.

This bowl game might not grab national headlines, but it has the makings of a high-scoring affair. Both Arkansas State and Bowling Green are offensively capable and defensively suspect, setting the stage for a shootout in Mobile, Alabama, where weather conditions are expected to be ideal.

Arkansas State has shown offensive consistency, scoring 27+ points in five of its last six games. However, its defense has been a liability, surrendering 30+ points on five occasions this season. On the other side, Bowling Green’s offense found its groove late in the season, scoring 30+ points in three of its final four games before a season-ending loss to Miami-Ohio.

While both teams managed to deliver a couple of defensive highlights earlier in the season—Arkansas State limiting Michigan to 28 points and Bowling Green holding Texas A&M to 26—those performances feel like distant memories given their defensive struggles against more modest competition down the stretch.

With neither defense likely to offer much resistance and both offenses capable of taking advantage, this matchup should deliver plenty of points under the lights on Thursday night.

Take the 'over.' Projected score: Bowling Green 35, Arkansas State 31.

My selection is on South Florida plus the points over San Jose State at 8 pm ET on Tuesday.

South Florida enters the Hawaii Bowl with a strong finish to its regular season, having unlocked its offense to score 59, 63, and 28 points in its final three games. Although the Bulls were upset as 5.5-point favorites against Rice in their regular season finale, snapping a two-game winning streak, they’ll be eager to bounce back in a high-energy setting like this one. The Bulls have been able to move the ball effectively and should have success against a San Jose State team that has struggled a bit down the stretch.

San Jose State did manage to close its regular season with a win and cover at home against Stanford, but overall, the Spartans covered the spread just twice in their final eight regular-season contests. With the competition tougher late in the season, the Spartans' offense and defense both began to sputter.

In what should be a competitive game, South Florida’s recent offensive surge, combined with San Jose State’s struggles, makes the Bulls a strong play to stay within the points and potentially win outright.

Take South Florida. Projected score: South Florida 33, San Jose State 30.

My selection is on Northern Illinois minus the points over Fresno State at 2:30 pm ET on Monday.

Northern Illinois looks to close its season on a high note after narrowly missing out on a MAC Championship Game appearance, having won three of its last four games to end the regular season. While the Huskies have dropped three straight ATS decisions, much of that can be attributed to their being overvalued late in the campaign. Here, they face a Fresno State squad that they match up well against, and I believe the number is fair.

Fresno State finished its season with a modest six wins, though one of those victories came against an FCS opponent in Sacramento State – a game in which the Bulldogs failed to cover. While the schedule included some tough opponents, it wasn’t an overly impressive campaign, and Fresno enters this neutral-site matchup in unfamiliar territory, traveling to Boise.

Northern Illinois has shown it can rise to the occasion, highlighted by a road win over Notre Dame earlier in the season. Expect the Huskies to use their physicality and balance on offense to take control and cover the spread in this contest.

Take Northern Illinois. Projected score: Northern Illinois 30, Fresno State 21.

My selection is on Ohio State minus the points over Tennessee at 8 pm ET on Saturday.

Ohio State comes into this game with something to prove after a shocking 13-10 loss to rival Michigan on November 30th. That disappointing defeat as a heavy 19-point favorite ended the Buckeyes' five-game winning streak, during which they went 3-2 ATS. It's worth noting that their only other loss this season came in a nail-biter on the road against eventual Big Ten champion Oregon, highlighting the quality of their campaign.

While Tennessee closed out the season with consecutive wins and covers, those victories came against overmatched opponents in UTEP and Vanderbilt. When last truly tested, the Volunteers fell by 14 points to Georgia on November 16th. That loss was part of a larger trend, as Tennessee managed just a 3-5 ATS record over its last eight games following a flawless 4-0 start both straight-up and against the spread.

Ohio State has faced the tougher schedule overall and brings superior talent to the table. The Buckeyes will be eager to rebound in a big way in this spot and I anticipate them overpowering a Tennessee team that hasn’t consistently delivered against top-tier competition.

Take Ohio State. Projected score: Ohio State 38, Tennessee 21.

My selection is on Texas minus the points over Clemson at 4 pm ET on Saturday.

The Longhorns enter this matchup looking to bounce back after a tough loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. That defeat marked Texas' second loss to the Bulldogs this season, accounting for their only blemishes on an otherwise stellar campaign. Notably, Texas has faced one of the toughest schedules in the nation, which should have them well-prepared for this contest.

Clemson, meanwhile, has been inconsistent, going just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games, including two outright losses. While the Tigers deserve credit for their ACC Championship win over SMU, that came in a favorable spot following an emotional loss to South Carolina. This matchup is a different story, as Clemson steps up significantly in class against a Texas team that boasts superior talent and physicality on both sides of the ball.

With Texas eager to finish the season strong and erase the sting of its SEC title game loss, I expect the Longhorns to control this game from the outset and cover the number with room to spare.

Take Texas. Projected score: Texas 37, Clemson 20.

My selection is on the 'under' between SMU and Penn State at 12 noon ET on Saturday.

This total seems inflated given the context of the matchup. Both teams are coming off high-scoring 'over' results, with Penn State riding a streak of four straight 'overs.' However, this early kickoff in Happy Valley sets up for a more measured, defensive battle.

SMU's offense has been electric, scoring 30+ points in all but three games this season, including a strong showing in the ACC Championship Game against Clemson. However, they'll face a much tougher test here against a Penn State defense that has been one of the nation's best, holding nine opponents to 20 points or fewer this season. The Nittany Lions will be looking to bounce back after a rare defensive lapse in the Big Ten Championship, where they allowed 45 points to Oregon.

The two-week layoff for both teams could lead to some offensive rust early in the contest, particularly against Penn State's disciplined defense. On the other side, SMU's defense has shown improvement as the season has progressed and will likely benefit from the added preparation time to scheme against Penn State's balanced but not overly explosive offense.

Expect a lower-scoring game than most anticipate in this matchup.

Take the under. Projected score: Penn State 27, SMU 20.

My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Notre Dame at 8 pm ET on Friday.

This total feels inflated for a matchup involving a stout Notre Dame defense. The Irish have been excellent on that side of the ball, allowing just 13.6 points per game this season. They’ll look to turn this into a physical, grind-it-out affair in their backyard, particularly after having three weeks off to prepare. While Notre Dame enters this contest on the heels of consecutive 'over' results, those outcomes may not be indicative of what we’ll see in this game, especially given the extended layoff, which could lead to some early offensive rust.

Indiana’s offensive success this season can’t be overlooked, but it’s important to note that the Hoosiers were held to just 20 and 15 points in back-to-back games against Michigan and Ohio State, two teams with defenses on par with Notre Dame's. Like the Irish, Indiana comes into this game following consecutive 'over' results, but those were against more offensively-oriented teams.

With both teams likely to prioritize defense and methodical play, this matchup sets up well for a lower-scoring outcome.

Take the under. Projected score: Notre Dame 24, Indiana 20.

My selection is on Tulane plus the points over Florida at 3:30 pm ET on Friday.

I believe there’s an underlying SEC bias influencing this line, which provides value on Tulane. The Green Wave enters this matchup with a 9-4 record but comes off consecutive losses both SU and ATS, including a blowout loss to Army in the AAC Championship Game. That disappointing finish should serve as a motivator for Tulane, giving them a chip on their shoulder as they take on an SEC opponent.

Florida, on the other hand, closed out an up-and-down season with three straight victories, including outright upset wins over LSU and Ole Miss. However, both of those wins came at home, where the Gators have thrived. Away from The Swamp, Florida has been far less reliable, posting a 1-3 record on the road this season. While this game takes place in Tampa, Florida’s proximity might not be enough to overcome its inconsistency outside Gainesville. Additionally, the Gators may not be fully locked in for this less-prestigious bowl game, with their focus perhaps lingering on missed opportunities this season.

Expect a motivated Tulane squad to keep this game close, and don’t be surprised if they push Florida to the brink.

Take Tulane. Projected score: Florida 27, Tulane 24.

My selection is on the 'over' between Georgia Southern and Sam Houston State at 7 pm ET on Thursday.

While both teams have leaned toward lower-scoring games recently, this matchup presents an opportunity for offensive fireworks. The total has risen since opening, signaling sharp interest in a potential high-scoring affair.

Sam Houston State’s offense struggled for much of the season, but with nearly three weeks to prepare for this Bowl game, the Bearkats should have had time to make adjustments and incorporate new wrinkles. Their defense, while impressive down the stretch, holding five straight opponents to 21 points or less, will face a stiff challenge against Georgia Southern’s capable offense.

The Eagles have consistently found success offensively, scoring 24 points or more in six of their last eight games. While their defense has been solid, they did allow 20+ points in four of their final five regular-season contests, suggesting vulnerabilities that Sam Houston State can exploit.

The fast track of the Caesars Superdome should also favor a higher-scoring game, as both offenses aim to make a statement in this Bowl matchup. With both teams capable of contributing to the scoreboard, the setup points to a sneaky shootout.

Take the over. Projected score: Georgia Southern 31, Sam Houston State 24.

My selection is on the 'under' between Western Kentucky and James Madison at 5:30 pm ET on Wednesday.

Both teams enter this matchup after high-scoring affairs, but the setup here points toward a lower-scoring game. Western Kentucky is coming off a lopsided 52-14 loss to Jacksonville State in the C-USA Championship Game. While that result might suggest defensive struggles, the Hilltoppers' defense has been serviceable overall this season, holding that same Jacksonville State team to just 17 points in their prior meeting. The more concerning factor for WKU has been its sputtering offense, which managed just 21 points or fewer in each of its final four games.

James Madison, on the other hand, is looking to rebound after back-to-back upset losses. The Dukes’ most recent game against Marshall ended in a 35-33 shootout, but that was an outlier for a JMU defense that has otherwise been solid this season. This matchup against a struggling WKU offense should give the Dukes an opportunity to tighten up and return to form on the defensive side of the ball.

Additionally, wet weather in Boca Raton may lead to less-than-ideal field conditions on the natural grass surface, potentially slowing down both offenses. Given Western Kentucky’s recent offensive struggles and James Madison’s defensive potential, this game is shaping up to stay under the posted total.

Take the under. Projected score: James Madison 24, Western Kentucky 17.

My selection is on West Virginia plus the points over Memphis at 9 pm ET on Tuesday.

The line has shifted too far in Memphis' direction, especially given the circumstances surrounding both teams. Memphis comes off a 34-24 win over Tulane, but their season has been inconsistent, finishing 6-6 against the spread. There's also a question about their motivation in this matchup. They had a solid win to close the regular season, but they didn’t make the AAC Championship Game, which raises concerns about their energy level for this bowl game.

West Virginia, on the other hand, is playing for pride after a disappointing regular season. Despite firing head coach Neal Brown and the uncertainty surrounding the interim coaching staff, the Mountaineers still have a chance to finish the season on a positive note. They performed well on the road this season with wins at Oklahoma State, Arizona, and Cincinnati, which shows they are capable of stepping up when needed.

While Memphis beat Cincinnati in last year's bowl game, that was a team decimated by opt-outs, unlike West Virginia, which will likely have fewer players missing this time around. With the Mountaineers motivated to save face after a tough year and Memphis potentially lacking the same drive, I believe the line has moved too far in the Tigers’ favor.

Take West Virginia. Projected score: West Virginia 27, Memphis 24.

My selection is on the 'over' between South Alabama and Western Michigan at 9 pm ET on Saturday.

South Alabama has been firing on all cylinders offensively, scoring 35 or more points in four of their last five games. Their offense has been explosive, and playing in familiar conditions for the Salute to Veterans Bowl, they should have no trouble continuing to put up big numbers. Western Michigan, although they finished their regular season with three straight games going under the total, has been known for its high-scoring, fast-paced games earlier this season, including multiple 40-point outings. Given the Broncos' offensive firepower and their tendency to engage in shootouts, I expect them to break out of their recent scoring funk.

The game also benefits from favorable weather conditions and a neutral-site setting, creating an environment that favors offensive execution. With both teams capable of putting up big numbers, the total looks to be too low for this matchup.

Take the over. Projected score: South Alabama 38, Western Michigan 31.

My selection is on Navy plus the points over Army at 3 pm ET on Saturday.

Army is riding high after a dominant performance in its blowout win over Tulane to secure the American Athletic Conference title last Friday. While the Black Knights’ victory was impressive, it also sets up a potential letdown spot here. Army enters this rivalry game laying more than a field goal, a relatively rare situation that hasn’t always gone well for them in this series. The last time Army was favored by more than three points against Navy, the Midshipmen pulled off a 17-13 upset as 7.5-point underdogs in 2021. Moreover, the Black Knights have cooled off against the spread, covering in just two of their last six games despite their continued success on the field.

Navy, meanwhile, has had an extra week to prepare after finishing its regular season with a convincing 34-20 win at East Carolina. The Midshipmen started the season with six straight wins and remain a formidable opponent, especially in the tightly contested Army-Navy rivalry. This matchup has a long history of close finishes, with eight of the last ten meetings being decided by a touchdown or less. Navy’s disciplined approach and ability to rise to the occasion in this emotional game make them a live underdog once again.

Take Navy. Projected score: Army 20, Navy 17.

Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Penn State and Oregon at 8 pm ET on Saturday.

While both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently, a closer look at their defensive profiles suggests this contest could be lower-scoring than expected. Penn State's last three games all went 'over,' but the Nittany Lions carried much of the scoring load themselves against Purdue, Minnesota, and Maryland. Their defense remains a strength, having allowed more than 20 points just once in their last six outings.

Oregon, despite a 49-21 shootout win over Washington last week, has been remarkably consistent defensively. The Ducks have held six straight opponents to 21 points or fewer, showcasing their ability to limit scoring opportunities. Their methodical offense also contributes to game flow that often prevents back-and-forth shootouts.

Both defenses are capable of stepping up in big games, and with two disciplined units on the field, the scoring pace should remain manageable throughout.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Penn State 24, Oregon 20.

AAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Tulane and Army at 8 pm ET on Friday.

This AAC Championship Game projects as a hard-nosed affair. Tulane enters looking to rebound after its eight-game winning streak was snapped by Memphis last week. The Green Wave defense had been dominant prior to that setback, allowing just nine points total in its previous three contests, including a shutout of Navy’s triple-option attack—a potentially key factor in preparing for Army's similar offensive scheme.

Army's offense, which started the season strongly, has cooled off significantly. The Black Knights managed 20 points or fewer in three of their last four games, suggesting that Tulane's stout defense could have an edge. Defensively, while Army struggled in its final two games of the regular season, conceding 73 points, the unit has shown flashes of being able to slow down opponents and will look to tighten up in this high-stakes contest.

With both teams potentially leaning on their running games to control the clock and limit possessions, this game is likely to stay below the total.

Take the 'under'. Projected score: Tulane 24, Army 13.

My selection is on Hawaii plus the points over New Mexico at 11 pm ET on Saturday.

Hawaii enters this matchup with little fanfare after suffering a blowout loss to Utah State in its most recent outing. However, the Rainbow Warriors have had an extra week to prepare and should be motivated to deliver a strong effort in their final home game of the season, especially with revenge in mind after a 42-21 loss to New Mexico last year.

New Mexico, on the other hand, is riding high after consecutive upset victories over San Diego State and Washington State, but the timing of the bye week may have disrupted their momentum. The Lobos are in a pressure-packed situation, needing a win to become bowl eligible. That pressure, coupled with Hawaii's potential to exceed expectations in its home finale, could make this a closer game than most anticipate.

Take Hawaii. Projected score: New Mexico 28, Hawaii 27.

My selection is on the 'under' between New Mexico and Hawaii at 11 pm ET on Saturday.

While both teams are coming off high-scoring performances, this matchup sets up for a more conservative outcome. Both New Mexico and Hawaii have had two weeks to prepare since last playing on November 16th, which should allow their defenses to tighten up against familiar offensive schemes.

New Mexico has shown flashes of explosiveness but remains inconsistent. Earlier this season, the Lobos managed only six points against Colorado State. On the other side, Hawaii has struggled to find offensive rhythm, scoring 24 points or fewer in five of its last seven contests. This has contributed to the 'under' hitting in six of the Rainbow Warriors' 10 lined games this season.

Given the extra preparation time and the tendency for these teams to stall offensively, look for a lower-scoring affair than expected in this late-night clash.

Take the under. Projected score: New Mexico 28, Hawaii 27.

Sun Belt Conference Favorite of the Year. My selection is on James Madison minus the points over Marshall at 8 pm ET on Saturday.

Marshall has enjoyed a tremendous season, currently riding a five-game winning streak and boasting an impressive 9-1-1 ATS record. However, this sets up as a challenging spot for the Thundering Herd as they stay on the road following an emotional upset win over Old Dominion last Saturday. Marshall's road performance has been less impressive, going 2-3 away from home.

James Madison, on the other hand, will be eager to bounce back after seeing its three-game winning streak snapped in a surprising loss at Appalachian State last week. The Dukes have been dominant at home, where they remain undefeated this season. Additionally, JMU has the added confidence of having won last year’s matchup against Marshall 20-9, a result that saw its defense shine.

The Dukes' strong home form and motivation to finish the regular season on a high note give them the edge in this spot.

Take James Madison. Projected score: James Madison 28, Marshall 17.

My selection is on UTEP plus the points over New Mexico State at 4 pm ET on Saturday.

New Mexico State is coming off a convincing 36-21 win at Middle Tennessee State last week, a result that marked just its third victory of the season. However, a closer look reveals that the Aggies' other two wins came by a combined 10 points, with one of those coming against FCS opponent Southeast Missouri State and the other against struggling Louisiana Tech. Now, as they wrap up their season at home in the Battle of I-10, the Aggies face a UTEP squad that should be eager to put up a fight despite its own challenges.

UTEP is fresh off a lopsided 56-0 loss to Tennessee, but that result was largely expected against a far superior opponent. Prior to that, the Miners had won two of their last four games and have shown resilience in spots this season. With this being their season finale, expect UTEP to come out motivated, especially in a rivalry game.

Take UTEP. Projected score: UTEP 24, New Mexico State 21.

My selection is on Northern Illinois minus the points over Central Michigan at 3:30 pm ET on Saturday.

Central Michigan earned a morale-boosting upset win over Western Michigan in its home finale last week, but it does little to change the trajectory of a disappointing season. Sitting at 3-7, the Chippewas are out of bowl contention and face a challenging matchup against Northern Illinois to close out their campaign.

Northern Illinois has had an up-and-down season but still has plenty to play for, needing a win to secure bowl eligibility. The Huskies delivered one of the season's most surprising upsets with a victory over Notre Dame in South Bend earlier this year, showcasing their potential when playing at their best. While inconsistency has been an issue, Northern Illinois possesses the talent to take control of this game against an overmatched Central Michigan squad.

Look for the Huskies to handle business in their regular-season finale.

Take Northern Illinois. Projected score: Northern Illinois 34, Central Michigan 17.

My selection is on Alabama minus the points over Auburn at 3:30 pm ET on Saturday.

Alabama took a step back last week, suffering a humbling defeat at Oklahoma that snapped their three-game winning streak. Back at home in the Iron Bowl, expect the Crimson Tide to come out with purpose, eager to put last week’s disappointment behind them.

Auburn, meanwhile, has built some momentum with back-to-back wins and covers, including a thrilling 43-41 upset over Texas A&M. However, the Tigers haven’t faced a road test since late October and have only played three road games all season, which could make this environment a daunting challenge.

Alabama’s defense should tighten up against an Auburn offense that relies heavily on big plays, while the Tide’s balanced attack has the tools to exploit Auburn's vulnerabilities.

Look for Alabama to control the pace and pull away in the second half, securing a convincing victory in this rivalry matchup.

Take Alabama. Projected score: Alabama 38, Auburn 21.

My selection is on Coastal Carolina plus the points over Georgia State at 2 pm ET on Saturday.

Coastal Carolina has struggled recently, dropping five of its last six games both SU and ATS. However, this represents a good spot for the Chanticleers to bounce back, as they face a Georgia State team that, despite a shocking upset win over Texas State last week, has endured a challenging season overall.

The Panthers’ victory in San Marcos was impressive, but it’s important to note that it followed a seven-game losing streak. With both teams out of bowl contention, motivation could play a key role here. Georgia State may find it difficult to maintain the intensity that fueled last week's surprise win, while Coastal Carolina will see this game as an opportunity to finish a tough season on a positive note.

The Chanticleers’ recent struggles have created some value, and I believe they can edge out a win in a competitive contest.

Take Coastal Carolina. Projected score: Coastal Carolina 27, Georgia State 24.

My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Central Florida at 8 pm ET on Friday.

Both teams have struggled through disappointing seasons and have allowed significant points recently, but in this matchup, expect a more controlled and defensive-minded game. Utah, known for its solid defense, has been caught off guard by tough opponents, giving up 49 points to Colorado and 31 to Iowa State in its last two outings. Similarly, Central Florida has faced defensive lapses in recent weeks, allowing 35 points to Arizona State and 31 to West Virginia.

However, with both teams having nothing to lose and trying to finish the season strong, this should be a game where both teams focus on limiting mistakes and stepping up defensively. The result will likely be a lower-scoring affair, with both teams struggling to generate consistent offense.

Take the 'under'. Projected score: Central Florida 20, Utah 17.

My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Tulane at 7:30 pm ET on Thursday.

Memphis enters this matchup without a chance to reach the AAC Championship Game, while Tulane has its spot secured to face Army next week. Despite Memphis’ offensive outburst in a 53-point performance against a struggling UAB defense last week, they’ll face a formidable challenge against Tulane. The Green Wave have allowed just nine points combined in their last three games, showcasing one of the nation’s top defenses. Ranked 17th nationally, Tulane has thrived on stifling opponents and controlling the pace of play.

Offensively, Tulane prefers a methodical approach, emphasizing time of possession and consistent, clock-draining drives. This style complements their defensive strategy and keeps games low-scoring. Memphis will find it difficult to replicate their recent offensive success against a much stronger opponent.

Last year’s meeting saw 52 total points, and with similar dynamics, another low-scoring game seems likely. Look for Tulane's defensive dominance and deliberate style to dictate the flow of this matchup.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Tulane 24, Memphis 17.

MAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Kent State and Buffalo at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

Kent State has endured a tough season, sitting winless at 0-11. While the Golden Flashes managed 17 points in last week’s game, they’ve been consistently stymied offensively, failing to score more than 21 points in five consecutive contests. Buffalo, on the other hand, has been riding high with three straight victories, clinching bowl eligibility last week. Despite the Bulls’ recent scoring success, they’re unlikely to need a big offensive output to handle Kent State in this spot.

Historical trends and current conditions further bolster the case for the 'under.' Last year’s matchup between these teams produced just 30 total points. Additionally, the game is set to be played in Buffalo under cold and windy conditions, likely hampering both teams' ability to move the ball effectively. With a struggling Kent State offense and Buffalo’s incentive to manage the game efficiently, a low-scoring affair appears likely.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Buffalo 27, Kent State 7.

Mountain West Conference Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Wyoming plus the points over Boise State at 7 pm ET on Saturday.

Wyoming enters this game off a 24-10 loss at Colorado State last Saturday and will look to rebound in its home finale. The Cowboys have just two wins this season, so they’re already out of the Bowl picture, but they’ll be highly motivated to close out their home slate with a strong performance. Boise State has been impressive, winning eight straight games and moving up to 12th in the national rankings, but they’ll face a motivated and feisty Wyoming squad that will be eager for revenge after a 32-7 loss to the Broncos last year.

While Boise State is rolling, Wyoming has shown the ability to be competitive at home and could make this a tighter contest than expected. The Broncos have been solid, but this is a tough environment for them to cover such a big spread. Wyoming should be able to keep things close and potentially surprise Boise State with a stronger-than-expected effort.

Take Wyoming. Projected score: Boise State 31, Wyoming 17.

My selection is on New Mexico State plus the points over Middle Tennessee State at 2:30 pm ET on Saturday.

New Mexico State enters this matchup in a slump, having dropped three straight games, including a 38-3 loss at Texas A&M last week. While the Aggies are winless on the road this season, they face a much less imposing opponent here and should find opportunities to get their offense back on track. This is their final road game before returning home for their season finale, which could provide added motivation to put up a strong effort.

Middle Tennessee State has been inconsistent and ineffective offensively, having failed to score more than 21 points in nine straight games. Their most recent outing, a 37-17 loss to Liberty, showed familiar struggles as they fell to 3-7 on the season. Even with extra preparation time coming off a bye week, the Blue Raiders' limited offensive ceiling remains a concern.

Last year's meeting saw New Mexico State come away with a hard-fought 13-7 victory, and while this season has presented challenges for both teams, the Aggies have shown they can compete against MTSU's defense. With the Blue Raiders continuing to struggle to generate points, the Aggies' ability to keep this game close makes them a solid underdog play.

Take New Mexico State. Projected score: Middle Tennessee State 17, New Mexico State 16.

My selection is on the 'over' between Rice and UAB at 2 pm ET on Saturday.

Rice has seen the 'under' cash in four straight games, but this matchup against UAB could break that trend. The Owls’ offense has been inconsistent, but they face a Blazers defense that has struggled all season, allowing 31 points or more in eight of their 10 games. That provides an opportunity for Rice to find more success offensively than they’ve had in recent weeks.

UAB’s defense has been porous, giving up 53 points to Memphis last week and showing an inability to contain opponents throughout the season. On offense, UAB had shown some life prior to last week, scoring 23 or more points in three straight contests. Against a Rice defense that has struggled to contain better offenses, the Blazers should be able to contribute their share of scoring.

With both teams out of Bowl contention, this game could lack defensive intensity, paving the way for a higher-scoring contest. Neither defense has proven reliable, and with favorable conditions for both offenses, this matchup has the potential to exceed the total.

Take the 'over.' Projected score: Rice 35, UAB 27.

My selection is on the 'over' between North Carolina and Boston College at 12 noon ET on Saturday.

North Carolina has been on an offensive roll, winning three straight games and posting impressive point totals of 41, 35, and 31 in their most recent victories. With one more win needed for Bowl eligibility, the Tar Heels will be motivated to keep their high-scoring ways going in this crucial matchup. Boston College, while struggling defensively, has been more effective offensively in recent weeks, scoring 37 and 28 points in their last two games. However, the Eagles have been porous on defense, allowing 42, 31, 31, and 38 points in their last four games.

With both teams showing the potential for solid offensive production and Boston College’s defense struggling to contain opposing attacks, this game sets up for a high-scoring affair. North Carolina is likely to continue putting up points as they chase Bowl eligibility, while Boston College will need to score to keep pace in a potential shootout.

Take the over. Projected score: North Carolina 38, Boston College 28.

Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Connecticut plus the points over Syracuse at 12 noon ET on Saturday.

Connecticut has been on a strong run, winning three straight games, including a solid 31-23 victory at UAB on November 9th. With six wins against FBS opponents this season, the Huskies are a much-improved team compared to their 2022 meeting with Syracuse, where they lost 48-14. Connecticut enters this matchup rested and will be looking to carry over the momentum from its recent success.

Syracuse, on the other hand, is in a tough spot after a long road trip across the country following a 33-25 win over California last Saturday. The Orange also have six wins against FBS teams and will wrap up their regular season at home next week against Miami. Syracuse may struggle to keep its focus after a grueling travel schedule, and Connecticut’s recent form gives them a good chance to keep the game close.

Take Connecticut. Projected score: Syracuse 27, Connecticut 24.

My selection is on the 'under' between Temple and UTSA at 7 pm ET on Friday.

Temple has been a poor offensive team all season, scoring 20 points or fewer in eight of its 10 games. In fact, the Owls have managed just 24 points combined in their last two contests. Last week’s 18-15 overtime victory over Florida Atlantic highlighted the Owls’ ongoing offensive struggles. They have struggled to generate consistent production, and their methodical style of play tends to grind games to a halt, which works against high-scoring outcomes.

On the other hand, UTSA has been involved in high-scoring affairs recently, with the 'over' cashing in their last five games. However, these contests came against teams known for their shootout tendencies, such as Tulsa, Memphis, and North Texas. The Roadrunners’ offense, while potent, could face some challenges in this matchup, as Temple is likely to limit the pace and control the ball in an effort to keep the score down.

Given Temple’s offensive ineptitude and UTSA’s potential to be slowed down in a lower-scoring contest, this game sets up for fewer points than we’ve seen in UTSA's recent matchups.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: UTSA 34, Temple 13.

MAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Eastern Michigan minus the points over Buffalo at 7 pm ET on Wednesday.

Eastern Michigan enters this game needing to win out to become bowl eligible, making this matchup crucial. Despite a tough 35-10 loss at Ohio last week, the Eagles have been competitive and will be motivated to bounce back at home. Buffalo, on the other hand, has already secured six wins and will be looking ahead to their bowl eligibility, while also facing a winless Kent State next week. The Bulls have played well recently, but their 2-3 road record this season suggests they could struggle away from home against a hungry Eagles team.

Eastern Michigan's defense will look to stifle a Buffalo offense that has been up-and-down on the road. The Eagles have had success at home with a 3-2 record and will draw confidence from last season’s 24-11 victory over the Bulls. With Buffalo potentially distracted by their upcoming bowl scenario and Eastern Michigan playing with urgency, I expect the Eagles to cover the spread in this pivotal matchup.

Take Eastern Michigan. Projected score: Eastern Michigan 28, Buffalo 21.

My selection is on the over between Akron and Kent State at 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday.

Akron comes into this game off a 29-16 loss to Northern Illinois, dropping their record to 2-8 on the season. Akron has allowed at least 20 points in every game this season, including against two-win FCS opponent Colgate, which points to potential for Kent State to score. Kent State, still winless at 0-10, has allowed 127 points over its last three games, showing vulnerability defensively. While Kent State hasn't been consistent offensively, they did manage to score 33 and 35 points in two home games earlier this season, indicating that they can put up points when facing a defense like Akron’s.

The rivalry between these two teams often leads to higher-scoring games, and last year’s meeting produced 58 total points. With both teams struggling defensively and Akron’s inability to shut down opponents, this matchup has the potential to hit the over. Both teams are capable of generating some offense, and the defensive weaknesses on both sides should create opportunities for scoring.

Take the over. Projected score: Akron 34, Kent State 27.

My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas and BYU at 10:15 pm ET on Saturday.

While Kansas has seen high-scoring outcomes recently, including six consecutive 'over' results, this trend may not continue against a BYU team that has proven to be comfortable in lower-scoring, defensively focused games. Kansas’ offensive numbers have been boosted in part by matchups with less disciplined defenses, and BYU's defense presents a significant upgrade in opposition. BYU has allowed 24 or fewer points in three of its last four and seven of its nine games overall this season, showcasing the unit's consistency and ability to control the pace, which is vital against a Kansas team looking to push the tempo.

BYU's offense, though efficient, is typically conservative and likely to employ a slower tempo to limit Kansas' scoring opportunities. In a matchup that pits BYU’s defensive strength against Kansas' recent offensive outputs, a lower total feels like a logical outcome, as the Cougars’ defensive schemes should keep Kansas from establishing a comfortable rhythm.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: BYU 27, Kansas 20.

AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between UAB and Memphis at 8 pm ET on Saturday.

UAB has shown signs of offensive improvement, scoring 107 points over the last three games after a period of struggles. This uptick in scoring, coupled with Memphis' potent offense, suggests that both teams could contribute to a higher-scoring affair. UAB has averaged just over 30 points in its last three games, which is a stark contrast to its earlier season struggles, and Memphis has consistently been a high-scoring team, averaging 30+ points per game and ranking inside the top-30 in total points.

Memphis’ offense, led by an efficient passing attack, should have success against UAB’s defense, which has struggled to stop explosive plays. UAB’s recent offensive resurgence, along with Memphis’ ability to score in bunches, makes this matchup ripe for a higher total, especially when factoring in that last year's meeting ended in a 45-21 blowout in favor of Memphis, which shows these two teams can combine for significant points.

Despite Memphis posting an 'under' in their last game, the Tigers have regularly hit the over this season, and UAB’s offensive improvement gives a strong indication this could be a high-scoring game. Take the over. Projected score: Memphis 41, UAB 28.

Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Old Dominion plus the points over James Madison at 4 pm ET on Saturday.

James Madison has been strong this season, but their blowout victories over Southern Miss and Georgia State don't fully capture the challenges they've faced against tougher opponents. While the Dukes' win over North Carolina earlier in the season garnered significant attention, they may not be as invincible as their record suggests. Old Dominion, despite their 4-5 record, has shown resilience, particularly during their three-game winning streak before their loss to Appalachian State. The Monarchs' defense and ability to stay competitive in close games make them dangerous underdogs in this matchup.

Old Dominion's ability to stay within reach of tough teams and their balanced offensive attack should allow them to cover the spread, and I see them winning outright in what should be a competitive, hard-fought game.

Take Old Dominion. Projected score: Old Dominion 27, James Madison 24.

C-USA Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana Tech plus the points over Western Kentucky at 12 pm ET on Saturday.

While Western Kentucky has had success at home, including their recent win over New Mexico State, Louisiana Tech has been competitive in several of its losses this season. The Bulldogs may have struggled with consistency, especially on the road, but they’ve been competitive in close games and have the potential to cover the spread here, especially considering Western Kentucky’s vulnerability to letting teams hang around.

Additionally, Louisiana Tech’s offense has the capability to put up points, and with the spread at +9 or more, they may be able to keep it within a one-score game or possibly even pull off a surprise upset. Western Kentucky's defensive struggles in past games could be a concern here, especially if Louisiana Tech can execute offensively.

Look for a hard-fought game with Louisiana Tech staying within the number, potentially leading to a close finish.

Take Louisiana Tech. Projected score: Western Kentucky 31, Louisiana Tech 27.