Conference Championship Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Coastal Carolina and Troy at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

We got precisely the results we wanted out of both of these teams over the last couple of games to set us up exceptionally well with the 'under' in this Sun Belt Conference Championship matchup on Saturday. Both teams saw their last two contests go 'over' the total, not only that, but both were turnover-prone in their respective regular season finale, leading them to perhaps approach this game with a little more caution than they might have otherwise. For Coastal Carolina, there's certainly reason to go ultra-conservative on offense in this game with QB Jarrett Guest struggling since taking over for NFL prospect Grayson McCall. Guest was directly responsible for two turnovers in each of the last two games (his two starts since McCall went down with a season-ending injury). Facing an opportunistic and perennially-tough Troy defense here, the Chanticleers won't want to leave anything to chance, perhaps putting this game largely in the hands of their defense (which is in line for a strong bounce-back effort after a poor performance against James Madison last week). Troy hung 48 points on the scoreboard in last week's rout of hapless Arkansas State. Keep in mind, however, that the Trojans actually didn't reach the end zone for a second time in that game until there were less than five minutes remaining in the third quarter. Like Guest, Troy QB Gunnar Watson has also been mistake-prone tossing an interception to go along with a lost fumble in last week's contest. The Trojans, like the Chanticleers, want to run the football, but will be running into a Coastal Carolina defense that has held up reasonably well against the run this season, allowing 4.0 yards per rush overall and 3.7 away from home. Down the stretch the Chanticleers stiffened up against opposing ground attacks, yielding fewer than 90 rushing yards in three of their last four games. Coastal Carolina has put up 36, 42 and 35 points in winning the last three meetings in this series but they didn't match up in the regular season this year, and we're obviously talking about much different Chanticleers squads, certainly in those games with McCall at the helm of the offense. Noting that Troy has held seven straight opponents to fewer than 20 points but also finds itself in a letdown of sorts offensively off its highest-scoring performance of the season, we'll confidently back the 'under' on Saturday. Take the under (10*).

Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah plus the points over USC at 8 pm et on Friday.

USC has every reason to be the more 'motivated' team ahead of this one. After all, it currently resides in the fourth and final spot in the College Football Playoff picture and will be looking to avenge its lone previous loss this season. Motivation only takes you so far, however, and I'm a believer that it shouldn't really play a role in handicapping as it's rarely lost on the betting marketplace. I'll grab the points with Utah here as it looks to defend its Pac-12 Championship and play as spoiler to USC's national title hopes at the same time. The Utes should be nice and warmed up for this contest after shredding through Colorado by a 63-21 score last Saturday. Meanwhile, the Trojans are coming off a win (and cover) in their annual showdown with Notre Dame - their third consecutive ATS victory. We'll back the better defense while also fading the Heisman Trophy candidate in USC QB Caleb Williams. Here, we'll note that USC is just 37-58 ATS in its last 95 games played away from home off consecutive victories and a woeful 7-18 ATS in its last 25 December games. Take Utah (10*).

My selection is on Washington State plus the points over Washington at 10:30 pm et on Saturday.

The Washington Huskies opened the season by winning four straight games ATS, all in a favorite role. Since then, however, they've gone just 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a favorite. After scoring a season-high 54 points in last week's rout of the hapless Colorado Buffaloes, we'll fade the Huskies here as they take on a Washington State squad that has shaken off a midseason lull to win three consecutive games and four in a row ATS heading into this rivalry showdown. Finally having found a consistent ground attack, the Cougars are suddenly dangerous offensively, racking up well over 600 rushing yards over the last three games alone. Noting that Washington is just 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games after covering its previous contest as a double-digit favorite, we'll get behind the underdog Cougars here. Take Washington State (8*).

My selection is on San Diego State plus the points over Air Force at 9 pm et on Saturday.

San Diego State has risen from the ashes following a poor 2-3 start to the campaign, winning five of its last six contests to firmly plant itself in the Bowl picture. Both Air Force and San Diego State are in uncharted territory here, riding respective three-game winning streaks. There's no question it's the Aztecs that are playing better football, however, noting that Air Force has gone just 1-3 ATS over its last four contests and 2-5 ATS over its last seven overall. Meanwhile, San Diego State checks in 4-1 ATS over its last five games. You know the saying; good teams win, great teams cover. While I'm not sure we should be crowning this San Diego squad as 'great', I do think it is good enough to hand Air Force a 10th consecutive loss in this series going all the way back to 2010. Take San Diego State (10*).

My selection is on Oregon State plus the points over Oregon at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Going into Corvallis and coming away with a victory isn't easy. Oregon knows that as it dropped its most recent trip here as a near-two touchdown favorite in 2020. On Saturday, I look for a revenge-minded Beavers squad (after losing last year's matchup by a score of 38-29) to play spoiler against the rival Ducks. Oregon is in a clear letdown spot here off a big win over Utah last week, as it successfully avenged a pair of losses suffered at the hands of the Utes last season, including one in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Noting that the Beavers have gone a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 lined home games, we'll confidently back them in an underdog role here. Take Oregon State (8*).

My selection is on Purdue minus the points over Indiana at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

I really like the set-up for this play as Indiana returns home off an upset win over Michigan State in overtime last week, all but dashing its hopes of Bowl eligibility. It's not as if the Hoosiers had been playing good football - they entered that contest losers of three straight games ATS. Since dropping consecutive games against Wisconsin and Iowa, Purdue has managed to win its last two contests and is now in the position to potentially reach the Big Ten Championship Game with a win after Iowa was upset by Nebraska yesterday. Here, we'll note that Indiana is 0-7 ATS the last seven times it has come off an outright win as a double-digit underdog, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 18.4 points in that situation. Take Purdue (8*).

My selection is on San Jose State minus the points over Hawaii at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

This is a smash spot for San Jose State as it limps home off a pair of tough losses against San Diego State and Utah State. The Spartans have now dropped the cash in five straight games but I'm confident they can turn it around right before Bowl season as they host a hapless Hawaii squad on Saturday. I say Hawaii is hapless but let's at least give it credit for outlasting UNLV at home last week. The Rainbow Warriors actually check in off consecutive ATS victories but I don't believe a third straight is in the cards, noting that they've gone 8-21 ATS the last 29 times they've played on the road off back-to-back ATS victories. San Jose boasts one of the best run defenses in the conference and should be able to make Hawaii one-dimensional here, ultimately pulling away for a convincing win. Take San Jose State (8*).

My selection is on Wyoming plus the points over Fresno State at 10 pm et on Friday.

Wyoming might not be the most exciting team to watch, unless you're a football purist. The Cowboys rarely throw the football, certainly shifting to a more run-centric offensive gameplan as the season has gone on. But they have an outstanding defense, not to mention a ground game that can carry the load offensively. After giving Boise State all it could handle in a three-point defeat (as a 14.5-point underdog) last week, I look for Wyoming to turn in a repeat performance against Fresno State on Friday. The Bulldogs are coming off a 41-14 rout of a disappointing Nevada squad last Saturday and enter this contest riding a six-game winning streak after opening the campaign with four losses in their first five games. I believe there's reason for Fresno State to be on 'upset alert' here, noting that it has been quite pedestrian in run defense this season, yielding 4.5 yards per rush attempt. After turning the football over three times in last week's narrow loss to Boise State, we can anticipate Wyoming going even more conservative here in an effort to effectively shorten proceedings as north of a two-touchdown underdog on the road. Having dropped three straight meetings in this series, including a 17-0 shutout defeat last year, look for the revenge-minded Cowboys to stick around for four quarters on Friday. Take Wyoming (8*).

My selection is on Florida plus the points over Florida State at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

Not a difficult decision to back the Gators in this bounce-back spot off a 31-24 road loss against an improved Vanderbilt squad last week. Florida is just one-game removed from a two-game winning streak that saw it outscore Texas A&M and South Carolina by a 79-30 margin. Meanwhile, Florida State is fresh off its highest-scoring performance of the season, hanging 49 points on a weak Louisiana-Lafayette squad last Saturday. I never really like teams scheduling games like that at this late stage of the season as I feel it can throw them off course and result in a 'shock to the system' of sorts the next week (as these late season games tend to be difficult matchups). Entering off four straight ATS victories, I can't help but feel the Seminoles are overvalued here. Take Florida (8*).

Pac-12 Game of the Week. My selection is on UCLA minus the points over California at 4:30 pm et on Friday.

While some feel UCLA could be in for a letdown here off last week's tough 48-45 loss to USC, I don't expect anything of the sort. After all, the Bruins check in off consecutive losses and this serves as a 'get right' matchup against Cal. The Bears are coming off a 27-20 win over Stanford last week. Color me unimpresssed as they failed to reach the end zone until nearly four minutes into the third quarter in that victory. We successfully faded Cal two weeks back as it fell by a 38-10 score at Oregon State - a game in which it's offense was held out of the end zone for the entire 60 minutes (the Bears only touchdown came on a fumble return). While UCLA has given up a ton of points this season, a lot of that has been game-script related. The Bruins actually match up well here, noting that they've held the opposition to just 3.9 yards per rush this season and that's an area where Cal needs to made headway as when it gets pass-happy, it also tends to turn the football over. QB Jack Plummer has thrown just five touchdowns to go along with six interceptions over the last four games and is likely to be under duress most of the game on Friday. Take UCLA (10*).

SEC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Mississippi State and Ole Miss at 7 pm et on Thursday.

While this isn't Army-Navy, these two teams have now gone 'under' each of the last five times they've met over the last five seasons. I'm expecting that trend to continue on Thursday. The Bulldogs offense hasn't been the same high-octane scoring machine it was earlier in the campaign. Yes, they exploded for 56 points last Saturday, but that was against FCS squad East Tennessee State. They were held to fewer than 20 points in three of four games prior to that and in the other scored only three offensive touchdowns in regulation time against Auburn. It's been a similar story for Ole Miss as its offense has struggled as the schedule has toughened up. Last Saturday against Arkansas, the Rebels didn't score a touchdown until nearly a minute into the fourth quarter, when the game was already well in hand for the Razorbacks, up 42-6. Two games back against Alabama, Ole Miss couldn't muster a single point from seven minutes remaining in the third quarter on. Even the game prior to that, an eventual 31-28 win over Texas A&M, the Rebels scored a touchdown less than two minutes into the game but then didn't reach the end zone again until nearly midway through the third quarter. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between USC and UCLA at 8 pm et on Saturday.

USC has now seen each of its last four games go 'over' the total, even though last week's game against Colorado really had no business getting there (yes, I'm still a little sour after backing the 'under' in that game). In that game against the Buffaloes, the Trojans defense came up big, holding Colorado out of the end zone until there were fewer than six minutes remaining in the third quarter. Offensively, USC didn't score a touchdown until the fifth minute of the second quarter and it will obviously be facing a tougher challenge against a UCLA defense that has given up its share of points, but has come up big at times as well. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 19-8 the last 27 times USC has gone on the road after scoring 37+ points in consecutive games, resulting in an average total of just 51.9 points. UCLA, meanwhile, checks in off a stunning 34-28 home loss against Arizona and that's notable as the 'under' is 27-9 in the Bruins last 36 games when coming off a loss by a touchdown or less in conference play. That situation has produced an average total of only 50.0 points. Last year we saw a closing total of 65.5 in this matchup. The fact that game totaled a whopping 95 points and USC is on an 'over' streak has this total set higher than it should be in my opinion. Take the under (8*).

SEC Game of the Month. My selection is on Kentucky plus the points over Georgia at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

While things have gone a little sideways for Kentucky following a perfect 4-0 start to the campaign, I'm still a believer in this Wildcats squad and feel they can give undefeated Georgia a run on Saturday afternoon in Lexington. While the Bulldogs remain undefeated on the season at 10-0 and come off consecutive ATS victories as well, it's not as if it's been a completely smooth ride. Georgia has actually turned the football over seven times while forcing only two turnovers over its last three games. Remember, there was a scare on the road against an average Missouri team (the Wildcats beat the Tigers on the road two weeks ago) - a game Georgia won by only four points. The Wildcats suffered an inevitable letdown at home against Vanderbilt last week after it gained Bowl eligibility with a sixth victory the game previous. I'm confident it can pick itself back up here as the Bulldogs are obviously an easy opponent to get up for. Note that Kentucky has yet to allow more than 24 points in a game this season and it can run the football (although not as consistently as you'd like to see given its backfield talent). That's to say there's a path for the Wildcats to effectively shorten this game and keep it competitive for four quarters. Note that you would have to go back four games here in Lexington - all the way to 2014 - to find the last time Georgia defeated Kentucky by more than 17 points on this field. The Wildcats defense has matched up fairly well against the Bulldogs in recent years, allowing 'only' 30, 14 and 21 points in the last three meetings in this series. Take Kentucky (10*).

ACC Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Clemson at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

I really like the way this one sets up for the underdog Hurricanes as they look to pick up that all-important sixth win of the season. Of course, it will be an uphill battle trying to win outright as a near-three touchdown underdog but we're not concerned about the outright victory here, only that the Canes can stay competitive for four quarters and I'm confident that they can. Everything mighty Clemson was working toward was essentially trashed in a blowout loss against Notre Dame in South Bend two weeks ago. Credit the Tigers for bouncing back with a 31-16 home win over Louisville last week but I can't help but feel an empty feeling still remains for these Clemson players. Miami picked up a critical road win at Virginia three games back before suffering an inevitable letdown back at home against Florida State. Yes, the Canes got crushed by the Seminoles but a loss is a loss and they moved on just fine, notching a 35-14 win at Georgia Tech last Saturday. While the Canes no longer have the services of QB Tyler Van Dyke as he's been lost to a shoulder injury, I actually think his replacement Jacurri Brown is a good fit in this offense. He made the big plays when needed and showed that he could do some things with his legs as well, gaining 87 rushing yards on 19 attempts. Quietly, Canes standout WR Xavier Restrepo returned from injury a few games back and has been slowly worked back into the offense. He's capable of making a splash this week in my opinion. With that said, I believe the path to Miami success here against the Tigers involves leaning on its terrific ground attack, not to mention is still-underrated defense. It's not as if Clemson has been blowing the doors off of its opponents this season. The Tigers have topped out at 34 points over their last six games. We've also seen teams move the football on this Clemson defense, stunningly on the ground as the Tigers have been ripped for 206, 124, 263 and 150 rushing yards over their last four contests. The last time these two teams met was in 2020 when Clemson rolled to a 42-17 home victory. The pointspread would seem to indicate Miami hasn't closed the gap at all - in fact, quite the opposite - since that meeting but I believe it has and will show it on the field on Saturday. Take Miami (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Northwestern and Purdue at 12 noon et on Saturday.

I like the way this one sets up as a higher-scoring affair than most are expecting. Northwestern's season has been circling the drain for weeks now and last week's 31-3 loss at Minnesota might have represented rock-bottom. I do expect the Wildcats to put up somewhat of a fight this week as they look to bounce back after scoring just 10 points combined in their last two games. Purdue has a knack for letting opponents hang around here in West Lafayette and Northwestern has won five consecutive trips here going all the way back to 2009. With that being said, this is a smash spot for the Boilermakers offense so rather than grab the points with the visitors, we'll go with the 'over' as this total continues to move in the wrong direction in my opinion. An injury to RB King Doerue seemingly opened the door for what might be a good one in Devin Mockobee. He has ran for 100+ yards in four of the last six games, reaching the end zone in five of the last six contests. Northwestern's defense has been cooked for 4.8 yards per rush this season. Of course, the Wildcats pass defense hasn't been much better, especially since losing CB Coco Azema to a season-ending injury in October. While Northwestern isn't likely to throw all over Purdue - not with its top two quarterbacks both questionable due to injuries suffered last week - I do think it can make considerable gains on the ground, where Purdue has sagged as the season has gone on, yielding 122, 179, 184 and 102 rushing yards over the last four games. As I mentioned, the Boilers give up their share of points here at home, where they've allowed 35, 0, 26, 37 and 24 points in five contests this season. The outlier came in a Week 2 matchup with FCS squad Indiana State. Take the over (8*).

Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia Tech and Liberty at 12 noon et on Saturday.

I really like the way this one sets up as a low-scoring affair between the down-trodden Hokies and upstart Flames on Saturday afternoon. Virginia Tech won two of its first three games this season but has gone winless in seven games since. While you might not know it by last week's 24-7 loss to Duke, I don't think the Hokies have quit on the season. This is still a talented defensive team at the very least and one that can relish the role of spoiler in the final two games of the regular season. Note that for as bad as things have gone for the Hokies and for as little the offense has been able to produce and stay on the field, they've actually held their last four opponents to 20, 22, 28 and 24 points. There was a stretch in late-September and early-October where their defense got worn down but we have seen that unit regroup and play the way it can lately. Now it faces a Liberty offense that has kept rolling along despite missing a number of key contributors due to injuries, including its top two quarterbacks on the depth chart and standout RB Dae Dae Hunter. The 'next man up' philosophy on that side of the football certainly worked last week as the Flames scored 33 points, albeit in a losing effort against UConn. They will face a tougher defensive challenge here, and I would anticipate perhaps a more conservative, ball control type of offensive gameplan given QB Jonathan Bennett's turnover-prone nature so far. The Liberty defense suffered a letdown against the Huskies last week but that was to be expected after holding Arkansas to 19 points in a stunning upset win the week previous. Note that Liberty has still held three of its last four opponents to 20 points or less and should be able to contain a Hokies offense that scored a touchdown less than two minutes in against Duke last week but then never hit the scoresheet again. Take the under (10*).

Mountain West Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on New Mexico plus the points over San Diego State at 9:45 pm et on Friday.

I really like the way this one sets up for underdog New Mexico as it looks to play spoiler against San Diego State on Friday. The Aztecs have saved their season with wins over UNLV and San Jose State over the last two weeks, giving them Bowl eligibility. I can't help but feel they're in for a letdown against a seemingly inferior squad here. New Mexico is a woeful 2-8 on the season and wasn't competitive in last Saturday's 31-3 loss to Air Force. The Lobos actually did well defensively to hold the Falcons to just 14 first half points but coming back on a team that can hog the time of possession like Air Force is extremely tough. San Diego State exploded for a 43-27 come-from-behind win over San Jose State last week. It seemed as if the Spartans thought it was going to be a cakewalk after two early touchdowns but the Aztecs took the ensuing kickoff (following the second TD) to the house to turn the tide. QB Jalen Mayden has been San Diego State's offense since taking over but this will be the Aztecs first road test since falling by a 32-28 score at Fresno State on October 29th. In a game that features an exceptionally low posted total, I believe grabbing the generous helping of points with the home underdog will be worth our while. Take New Mexico (10*).

My selection is on Tulane minus the points over SMU at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

Year in, year out, bettors flock to the SMU Mustangs thanks to their high-flying offense. Fresh off three consecutive SU wins and four in a row ATS that's not likely to change as the Mustangs stay on the road for a second game in six days, facing upstart Tulane on Thursday. The Green Wave are 8-2 on the campaign but enter this game off a 38-31 loss as a short favorite at home against Central Florida on Saturday. There was really no shame in that defeat as the Knights are a terrific team, arguably better than the SMU squad they'll face on Thursday. While the difference between the two offenses in this game is negligible in my opinion, I believe Tulane is the far better defensive team. After giving up 38 points in Saturday's loss the Green Wave will obviously be in a less-than-forgiving mood on Thursday, hungry to end a seven-game losing streak in this series. I'll lay the short number with the home side. Take Tulane (8*).

My selection is on Ball State plus the points over Ohio at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

Ohio is rolling right now, winning five consecutive games SU and six in a row ATS. The Bobcats offense has been outstanding, but I'm willing to back the better defense in a home underdog role, not to mention the fact that Ball State can become Bowl eligible with a victory (the Cardinals will wrap up the regular season with a road game against Miami-Ohio). Ball State not surprisingly suffered a letdown last week at Toledo after winning outright in an underdog role at Kent State the week previous. As I mentioned, the Cardinals can play some defense, allowing 4.2 yards per rush and 6.3 yards per pass attempt this season. In stark contrast, Ohio has yielded 4.4 yards per rush (with that number rising to 5.0 on the road) and 8.4 yards per pass play. There's a path for the Cardinals to effectively shorten this game and keep the red hot Ohio offense off the field as Ball State boasts one of the best running backs in the MAC this season in Carson Steele. He's gotten better as the season has gone on, rushing for a whopping 390 yards while delivering four touchdowns in the last two games alone. The only two occasions where Steele didn't rush for over 100 yards this season came in a blowout loss at Tennessee (in which he had only 11 rush attempts) and a 44-38 win over Northern Illinois in which he found the end zone three times. Here, we'll note that Ohio is a woeful 4-13 ATS in its last 17 road games after consecutive double-digit wins in-conference, as is the case here. Take Ball State (8*).

Mountain West Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose State and San Diego State at 10:30 pm et on Saturday.

I can't help but feel San Diego State's 32-28 loss to Fresno State two games back served as a 'watershed moment' for the team. The Aztecs leaned heavily on their defense last Saturday, prevailing by a 14-10 score over UNLV (we won with Rebels ATS in that game). With a severely disjointed offense, San Diego State will likely need to continue to ride its defense hard down the stretch and I think it's catching San Jose State at the right time here, as the Spartans are likely in for a letdown after scoring 35 and 28 points over their last two games. San Jose State can play some defense as well. The Spartans have incredibly held six of eight opponents to 17 or fewer points this season. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has cashed in six of their eight contests. Noting that last year's meeting between these two teams produced a grand total of just 32 points, I'm comfortable playing the 'under' again here, even as we work with a relatively low number. Take the under (10*).

Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Oregon State minus the points over California at 9 pm et on Saturday.

I really like the way this spot sets up for Oregon State as it returns to Corvallis with an extra day of preparation time following last Friday's tough 24-21 loss at Washington. We won with the 'under' in that narrow defeat at the hands of the Huskies in Seattle but won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Beavers here. California checks in off a spirited 41-35 loss at rival USC. The Bears were obviously up for that showdown, turning in one of their best performances of the season, albeit in a losing effort. I question whether Cal gets back up to the same level for this one, noting that it enters on the heels of five straight losses, with its season effectively circling the drain with slim hopes of gaining Bowl eligibility (it needs to win its final three games). Note that Cal is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS victory while Oregon State has reeled off 10 consecutive ATS victories here at home. Take Oregon State (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Oregon at 7 pm et on Saturday.

We won with the 'over' in Oregon's most recent home game - a 45-30 win over UCLA three weeks ago. Since then, we've seen the Ducks defense get tuned up in lopsided wins over California and Colorado. While Washington will offer a much tougher challenge, I'm confident the Ducks 'D' will be up for it on Saturday. It's a similar story with the Washington defense as it has seemingly been getting stronger as the season has gone on. Last week, we won with the 'under' in the Huskies narrow 24-21 home win over Oregon State. It has had an extra day to prepare for Oregon with that most recent contest being played on a Friday night. You would have to go back seven meetings in this series to find the last time the Ducks hung 40+ points on the Huskies and as electric as this Oregon offense has been, I don't see that happening here either. We like to play Washington 'overs' in games where it is likely to jump out to a sizable lead, as that tends to be when the Huskies defense sags. In what has the potential to be a relatively competitive affair all the way on Saturday, I'll go the other way and back the 'under'. Take the under (8*).

SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between South Carolina and Florida at 4 pm et on Saturday.

South Carolina's offense got off to a roaring start this season, scoring 30+ points in four of its first five games. That had a lot to do with a very manageable non-conference schedule, however. Since then, the Gamecocks have put up 24, 30, 10 and 38 points with the latter performance coming against one of the worst defensive teams in the country in Vanderbilt last Saturday. Florida's defense has been ripped by the likes of Tennessee and Georgia but there's no shame in that. Outside of those two poor performances, the Gators 'D' has held up reasonably well and I'm confident it can stand up against what I still consider to be a fading Gamecocks offense (note that South Carolina gained four extra possessions thanks to turnovers last week and still scored 'only' 38 points against an awful Vandy defense). Florida is coming off a 41-point outburst in a win over Texas A&M last week but I don't think this is an offense built to deliver those type of point explosions on a regular basis. Note that the Gators have been held to 18 or fewer pass completions in five consecutive games, despite trailing most of the way in two of those contests. While the 'over' has cashed in five straight meetings in this series, those games topped out at 66 points so not all that much higher than the number we're dealing with here. Also note that only three of those five contests surpassed Saturday's total (at the time of writing). Take the under (10*).

Big Ten Game of the Year. My selection is on Purdue plus the points over Illinois at 12 noon et on Saturday.

We missed with the 'over' in Purdue's ugly home loss against Iowa last Saturday as the Boilermakers couldn't get anything going offensively in an eventual 24-3 loss. Plenty of bettors got burned with Purdue as a home favorite in that spot and will want no part of the Boilers as they hit the road to face Illinois here. That's precisely what makes Purdue so attractive as we catch a generous helping of points in a stadium where the Boilers haven't lost since way back in 2010. Illinois is in bounce-back mode as well following a stunning home loss against Michigan State last week. While there have been some dominant defensive performances along the way, I think there have also been some 'smoke and mirrors' involved in the Illini's impressive 7-2 start to the campaign. For Purdue, it's getting down to crunch time as it looks again to gain Bowl eligibility with that elusive sixth win following back-to-back losses against Wisconsin and Iowa, as mentioned. Note that Purdue checks in 21-8 ATS in its last 29 road games after losing three of its last four contests ATS, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Illinois is a woeful 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games after winning five or six of its last seven games ATS, which is also the situation here. Take Purdue (10*).

My selection is on UNLV plus the points over Fresno State at 10:30 pm et on Friday.

Fresno State has won four straight meetings in this series - its longest winning streak all-time since the first matchup between these two squads back in 1996. I look for the Runnin' Rebels to give the Bulldogs all they can handle on Friday, however, as UNLV looks to make a final push toward a Bowl game. To earn Bowl eligibility, the Rebels need two wins in their final three games. While that looks manageable on paper, a win here would all but assure it of a spot with games against Hawaii and Nevada remaining. We won with the Rebels plus the points against San Diego State last Saturday. In that game, UNLV welcomed back its starting quarterback and running back and effectively shortened the game, leaning on its defense to stay competitive and ultimately earn the cover (which I realize meant nothing to the players in the grand scheme of things). It was a solid effort that should provide some confidence as it tries to finally snap its four-game skid here against Fresno State. The Bulldogs got off to an awful start this season but have since reeled off four straight victories and need just one more win to become Bowl eligible. They scored 55 points in a rout of lowly Hawaii last week but that doesn't change the fact that it's been a struggle for the most part offensively, even with QB Jake Haener healthy, as he was last week. Keep in mind, just two games back they forced five turnovers against aforementioned San Diego State but still needed all of the offense they could muster in a 32-28 win. The fact that they allowed 28 points against a punchless, dare I say broken Aztecs offense was telling. Here, we'll note that Fresno State is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games after scoring 31+ points in consecutive contests heading in. Meanwhile, UNLV is 4-1 ATS in its last five games when coming off a SU road loss but ATS cover, as is the case here. Take UNLV (8*).

Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and USC at 9:30 pm et on Friday.

After getting involved in three straight high-scoring shootouts - two resulting in victories - I can't help but feel the Trojans are looking to catch their breath in what should be a layup against lowly Colorado on Friday. USC needed all the offense it could get in posting wild wins over Arizona and California over the last two weeks. Here, it finally finds itself back in a 'name your score' type of contest against a Buffaloes squad licking its wounds off a 49-10 dismantling at the hands of Oregon last Saturday. Colorado has been held to 20 or fewer points in eight of nine games this season with the only outlier coming in a 42-34 loss to Arizona State two weeks ago - a game where the Buffaloes still mustered only 359 total yards of offense. While USC's offense has been rolling along, there has been an apparent ceiling with it topping out at 45 points over its last eight games (it did score 66 in its season-opener against Rice). I'm not convinced that will be enough to get this one 'over' the lofty total as Colorado isn't likely to end many drives with 7's against a talented Trojans defense that should be in a foul mood after allowing 35 points against an oft-punchless Cal offense last Saturday. You would have to go back seven meetings in this series, all the way to 2014, to find the last time these two teams combined to put up more than 66 total points (which is the posted total at the time of writing). Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 3-0 the last three times Colorado has come off consecutive losses against Pac-12 opponents in which it yielded 31+ points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 5-1 in USC's last six contests after gaining 450+ total yards in consecutive games, as is the case here. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on East Carolina plus the points over Cincinnati at 8 pm et on Friday.

Cincinnati has taken five straight meetings in this series and you would have to go all the way back to 2001 to find the last time East Carolina won a road game against the Bearcats. With that being said, I believe the Pirates have as good a shot at staging an upset as they have in years on Friday night as they look to pull even with the Bearcats at 7-3 overall. While Cincinnati was battling it out in a taxing 20-10 home win over Navy this past Saturday, East Carolina was home and cool on its bye week following three consecutive victories, culminating with a 27-24 road upset win over BYU the Friday previous (we won with the 'under' in that game). While known for their offensive prowess, the Pirates can play some defense as well, as we saw down the stretch in that critical win over the Cougars in hostile territory. This isn't the same Cincinnati squad we've seen in years' past as there's no Desmond Ridder to lean on at quarterback and it has shown as the Bearcats have topped out at 29 points over their last four games, failing to reach 300 passing yards in any of their last five contests. That's fine if the running game is rolling but that's not the case with Cincinnati right now as it has gained just 95 yards on 37 rush attempts over the last two games. I like ECU's chances of orchestrating long, clock-eating drives in an effort to effectively shorten proceedings on Friday. Note that the Pirates check in 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog while Cincinnati is a woeful 2-7 ATS in its last nine contests after committing one or less turnovers in consecutive games, as is the case here. Take East Carolina (8*).

AAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Tulsa at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

There was reason to be optimistic about Memphis' Bowl chances entering the 2022 campaign. The Tigers opened with a tough matchup on the road against Mississippi State but from there, reeled off four straight wins and certainly appeared to be in the driver's seat in the AAC. Since then, however, the Tigers haven't gotten any breaks on their way to four consecutive losses. I'm not ready to write off Memphis just yet. Of those four losses, only two came by more than two points and none by more than 10 points with the Tigers putting up 28+ points themselves in all four contests. They face an uphill battle needing two wins in their final three games to gain Bowl eligibility but there's certainly a path to get there. It has to start with a win over Tulsa on Thursday. This has been a fairly disastrous season for the Golden Hurricane, due in part to an injury to QB Davis Brin. Even if Brin is good to go for this game, there's no guarantee Tulsa will be able to put enough points on the board to stay in contention for four quarters. Last week's two-touchdown defeat at home against Tulane illustrated how the season has gone for Tulsa as it failed to reach the end zone until the final minute of the first half - after the Green Wave had already jumped ahead 17-3. It never found the end zone again after that late first half score. Keep in mind, this is a Golden Hurricane squad that at one point gave up four touchdown drives in a 14-minute stretch against Navy and it's methodical triple-option attack earlier this season. They'll certainly have their hands full with Memphis' offense which is led by a baller in QB Seth Henigan. Tulsa has a good one in WR Keylon Stokes but I expect Memphis to give him plenty of attention in this one. Note that the Golden Hurricane will be trying to win consecutive meetings in this series for the first time since reeling off four straight wins over Memphis from 2005 to 2010. The two teams have met seven times since then with Memphis going 2-0 SU and ATS off a loss in this series over that stretch, with those two victories coming by scores of 40-20 and 41-14. Take Memphis (10*).

MAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Central Michigan at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

We missed with the 'under' in both of these teams' games last week but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Bulls and Chippewas match up on Wednesday. Buffalo turned the football over three times in its 45-24 road loss against Ohio last week. Interestingly, the Bulls have forced a whopping eight turnovers over their last two games yet still scored 'only' 58 points combined in those contests. You would have figured all of those extra possessions would lead to more of a points explosion. Here, they'll be facing a Central Michigan squad that will be ultra-focused on taking care of the football after turning it over a whopping eight times itself over its last two games. It's also interesting to note that despite the Chips giving their last two opponents all of those extra possessions they 'only' gave up 56 points over those two games. Both teams want to run the football. Note that Buffalo hasn't thrown for 300+ yards since back on September 10th against FCS squad Holy Cross. Meanwhile, Central Michigan hasn't thrown for 300+ yards since Week 1 against Oklahoma State when it was in comeback mode for most of the game and racked up 424 yards through the air. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 10-2 in Buffalo's last 12 games when playing on the road after a road loss against a MAC opponent, resulting in an average total of just 50.1 points in that situation. The 'under' is also 4-2 in the Bulls last six games after their previous two contests totalled 60+ points. CMU has seen the 'under' cash four of the last times it has come off a game where it lost the turnover battle by at least two. Take the under (10*).

MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami-Ohio plus the points over Ohio at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

I like the way this spot sets up for the Redhawks as they come off their bye week knowing they need two victories in their final three games to earn Bowl eligibility. Anything other than a Bowl appearance would be a disappointment after they not only reached one but defeated North Texas in that contest last December. Miami-Ohio's offense hasn't put up the same numbers it did a year ago although it's worth noting that unit didn't really get rolling until November. Ohio has reeled off four straight victories, making it six on the season so it has already gained Bowl eligibility. I didn't come away overly impressed despite the lopsided nature of its 45-24 win over Buffalo last week. The Bulls offered very little defensive resistance in that game but I expect Miami-Ohio to provide a much more difficult challenge in that regard here. I mentioned that the Redhawks offense didn't really get rolling until November last season. That's been par for the course as Miami-Ohio checks in 77-51 ATS in its last 128 games played in the second half of the season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 3.5 points along the way. Here, the Redhawks will be playing with revenge after dropping a tough 35-33 decision on the road against Ohio last year. They were actually shut out in the entire first half in that game and couldn't find any semblance of a ground game, but still hung in there and lost by 'only' two points. Note that the underdog has cashed in each of the last three meetings in this series (last year Ohio was a +7 home underdog). Here, we'll also note that the Bobcats are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite while Miami-Ohio checks in a profitable 5-3 ATS in its last eight games after losing two of its last three contests ATS, as is the case here. Take Miami-Ohio (10*).

Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between California and USC at 10:30 pm et on Saturday.

After getting involved in consecutive track meets on the road against Utah and Arizona, I look for USC to 'manage' this very winnable matchup with Cal on Saturday. The Golden Bears are mired in another trying campaign having lost four in row entering Saturday's matchup. They've had only two breakout performances offensively, one of those coming against FCS squad Cal-Davis and the other against the aforementioned Arizona Wildcats, who boast one of the worst defenses in the FBS. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 39-21 in Cal's last 60 road games following an 'over' result, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 52.9 points in that spot. The 'under' is also 28-14 in USC's last 42 contests after scoring 37+ points in consecutive games, which is also the situation here, resulting in 54.9 total points on average. Take the under (10*).

Mountain West Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on UNLV plus the points over San Diego State at 7 pm et on Saturday.

San Diego State has been fairly high on my fade list this season and I see this as another fine opportunity to do so as the Aztecs face UNLV on Saturday. The Runnin' Rebels are licking their wounds on the heels of three straight losses following a 4-1 start to the campaign. Injuries have had something to do with their slide but the guys that are healthy need to start showing up and I'm confident they will off the bye week. If ever there was a perfect example of how far the Aztecs have fallen it wast last week's fall-from-ahead loss against Fresno State. San Diego State teams of the past would have had no trouble putting that game away with a 28-10 late in the third quarter. But this year's Aztecs squad can't run the football and control the clock the way previous editions have been able to. It seems that the more QB Jalen Mayden is asked to do the more trouble he gets into. With that being said, Virginia Tech transfer Braxton Burmeister certainly wasn't the answer under center either. All told, this is a San Diego State team that struggles to do the little things well, including playing fundamentally-sound defense and I expect the Rebels to take advantage here, even with QB Doug Brumfield still sidelined with a concussion. Keep in mind, Cam Friel was last year's top passer for the team while Harrison Bailey is a Tennessee transfer that most thought would be the starter this year heading into the season. With an extra week of practice I do think we'll see a sharper performance from the UNLV offense here. Take UNLV (10*).

My selection is on Louisiana plus the points over Troy at 5 pm et on Saturday.

Troy enters this game on the heels of five straight victories but I look for the Trojans to get tripped up on Saturday afternoon. We missed with Louisiana last week as the Ragin' Cajuns got off to a dreadful start on the road against Southern Miss and could never recover, even though they did put up a fight in the second half, ultimately closing the gap (to a certain extent) late. When we last saw Louisiana here at home it routed Arkansas State by a 38-18 score two games back. That marked the team's third straight ATS victory. Troy has an incredible defense but its offense leaves a lot to be desired. The Trojans have manhandled opposing ground attacks but the Ragin' Cajuns have been rolling the ball downhill in that regard, running for 174, 109, 206 and 103 yards over their last four games, with the two higher totals coming here at home. Here, we'll note that Troy is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine games following a win in conference play. Louisiana has cashed ATS each of the last three times it has come off a loss in-conference, which is the situation here. Take Louisiana (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Penn State and Indiana at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

We missed with the 'under' in heart-breaking fashion in Penn State's eventual lopsided defeat at the hands of Ohio State last Saturday. After a low-scoring first three quarters, things went off the rails in the final frame. It happens. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play. It is noteworthy that Penn State allowed just one Ohio State touchdown until over midway through the fourth quarter in last week's contest. It wasn't until the Nittany Lions were forced to abandon their running game in comeback mode late that mistakes started happening and the Buckeyes capitalized. I do still feel that Penn State has an elite defense. Even in a rout at the hands of Michigan three games back, the Nittany Lions gave up just one touchdown in the entire first half. Offensively, Penn State has a bit of a 'feast-or-famine' nature. This is a tougher matchup than it might appear on paper against the 3-5 Hoosiers. Indiana recently held Michigan to just two touchdowns in the game's first 50 minutes and its defense certainly wasn't to blame in last week's loss at Rutgers as it gave up just two offensive touchdowns and only three offensive scores in total (the Scarlet Knights added an interception returned for a touchdown) in a 24-17 defeat. Offensively, the Hoosiers could only muster one offensive touchdown in that entire game with their other notable score coming on a game-opening kick return touchdown. This is a big game for both teams, albeit for different reasons and noting that last year's matchup totalled only 24 points in a Penn State shutout victory, we'll back the 'under' here. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Texas Tech and TCU at 12 noon et on Saturday.

I don't have a lot of faith in either of these defenses. Texas Tech's offense took a breather last week against Baylor, putting up only 17 points in a 28-point rout. Perhaps the Red Raiders can be excused for that poor performance after they had scored 37, 28, 31 and 48 points over their previous four games. I certainly expect them to light up a TCU defense that has had little to do with the team's perfect 8-0 start. The Horned Frogs have given up fewer than 28 points only twice all season, first in their season-opener against FCS squad Tarleton State (in a game that totalled 76 points) and then in a blowout victory over Oklahoma (that game reached 79 total points). Save for a rout of West Virginia, Texas Tech's defense has been sieve-like this season, most recently allowing three touchdowns in one eight-minute stretch against Baylor last week, at home no less. These two teams got into the 80's in last year's meeting. Expect another shootout on Saturday. Take the over (8*).

Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Iowa and Purdue at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Iowa opened the season with four 'under' results in its first five games but that changed in a 54-10 rout at Ohio State two weeks ago. That was a bit of a back-breaker of a defeat and from there we saw the Hawkeyes essentially ease off the pressure valve and the result was a 33-point explosion in a 20-point win over Northwestern last week. Now Iowa goes back on the road to face Purdue, and I'm not anticipating the type of defensive slugfest the oddsmakers are projecting. Note that we've seen a strong home-road dichotomy in terms of high and low-scoring games involving the Boilermakers in recent years. That's continued to a certain extent this year. Note that the Boilers have baited the likes of Penn State and Nebraska into back-and-forth shootouts here at home with those two contests totalling 66 and 80 points. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 16-6 in Iowa's last 22 games after losing three of its last four games, resulting in an average total of 50.5 points. Meanwhile, the Boilers have seen their last six games go 'over' the total after winning four or five of their last six contests, as is the case here, leading to an average total of 69.3 points in that spot. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon State and Washington at 10:30 pm et on Friday.

Oregon State has had to change things up a bit on offense due to a couple of key injuries to QB Chance Nolan and TE Luke Musgrave but the good news is, it has continued to pile up victories, reeling off three straight wins in Pac-12 play entering Friday's showdown with Washington. While we won with the 'over' in the Huskies victory over Arizona the last time it played on this field, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' in this key home matchup on Friday. I have a lot of respect for the Oregon State defense and I'm confident it can contain an explosive Huskies offense led by QB Michael Penix Jr. Washington wants to throw the football - that's no secret - but the Beavers boast one of the best and most underrated secondaries in the nation in my opinion. On the flip side, Oregon State has shifted to a more balanced attack in the absence of Nolan under center. Note that the Beavers have completed 17 or fewer passes in four of their last five contests. Washington's defense prides itself on its ability to snuff out opposing rushing attacks, yielding just 3.3 yards per rush this season. You would have to go back four meetings in this series to find the last time a game went 'over' the total we're working with tonight. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between UMass and Connecticut at 7 pm et on Friday.

The fact that this game actually means something might be one of the biggest surprises of the college football season. Yes, UConn can gain Bowl eligibility with two wins in its final three games this season and it has to start with a victory here against a very beatable UMass squad. While that may look like a cinch on paper, rarely has anything come easy for the Huskies football program in recent years. I fully expect UConn to 'play it smart' on Friday, leaning heavily on its ground attack in an effort to churn out long, clock-eating drives and effectively shorten this game in the hopes of dashing the Minutemen's upset hopes. UMass has just one victory this season but it's had nothing to do with poor defensive play. The Minutemen have a talented, experienced defense that is capable of snuffing out a one-dimensional Huskies offense. UConn has thrived off of turnovers, forcing 12 in its last four games alone, so you can be sure UMass's gameplan will involve taking care of the football while also relying heavily on its ground game to move the football. This is obviously a very low posted total but I'm confident it will seem unreasonably high by the time halftime rolls around in this one. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on Boston College plus the points over Duke at 7 pm et on Friday.

While Duke was celebrating an eight-turnover fuelled upset victory in Miami last Saturday, Boston College was lamenting another missed opportunity as it turned the football over five times in an upset loss at UConn - its first ever defeat at the hands of the Huskies. Here, I do look for the Eagles to show some pride and give the Blue Devils a fight. Note that grabbing the points has been a fruitful venture in this series, with the underdog cashing at a 4-1 ATS clip in five all-time meetings going back to 2006. That's not surprising given the low-scoring nature of this series with none of those contests totalling more than 39 points. Here, we're catching double-digits with the Eagles, noting that Duke is a woeful 6-16 ATS in its last 22 games after posting a win by 10+ points against a conference opponent in its previous contest, as is the case here. Regardless whether QB Phil Jurkovec can go for the Eagles (he's struggled this season anyway), we'll grab the generous helping of points with the home side here. Take Boston College (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Central Michigan and Northern Illinois at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

Central Michigan's offense has been fairly stagnant since opening the season with a wild 58-44 loss at Oklahoma State. The Chippewas enter with just two victories on the campaign. Last time out, CMU was held out of the end zone until nearly two minutes into the third quarter against Bowling Green. The week previous it could only muster three offensive scores in a 28-21 win over lowly 1-8 Akron (the other score came on a defensive fumble return for a touchdown). The good news is, outside of one bad quarter against Toledo, the Chips have held up reasonably well defensively in MAC play. They draw a favorable matchup against Northern Illinois here. The Huskies also own just two wins on the season. In their most recent game they didn't reach the end zone until the final two minutes of the third quarter against Ohio - their only touchdown of the game. Prior to that they did deliver a 39-10 win over Eastern Michigan. Interestingly, that game opened with an early pick-six in favor of the Huskies but from there they scored a touchdown with just over four minutes remaining in the first quarter but then didn't find the end zone again until the final minute of the third quarter. You get the picture. Both teams are capable of stepping up defensively but also fully capable of going stagnant for extended stretches on offense. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Western Michigan and Bowling Green at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

The Western Michigan Broncos have had a disappointing season by all accounts, checking in with just three wins through eight games. They have a bit of a quarterback competition on their hands, which is to say no one has really been able to step up and take the reins, even though Jack Salopek was the starter prior to suffering a knee injury two games back. Last time out, the Broncos scored just one touchdown in a 16-10 win over Miami-Ohio, not reaching the end zone until more than midway through the third quarter. Two games back they scored two first half touchdowns but then were shut out over the game's final 31 minutes against a beatable Ohio defense. Bowling Green rolled to a 34-18 win over Central Michigan in its most recent contest. The Falcons did score just three offensive touchdowns in that victory with the other coming on a defensive fumble return for a touchdown. Prior to that there was a two-game stretch where Bowling Green managed just one touchdown against Buffalo (that came in the final six minutes when the outcome had long been decided) and two touchdowns in a narrow 17-13 win over Miami-Ohio, not reaching the end zone until just over seven minutes were left in the second quarter in that contest. I'm not anticipating a ton of offensive fireworks in this key MAC showdown. Take the under (8*).

MAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Ohio at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

While Buffalo is coming off an 'over' result, both of these teams are trending to the 'under' lately. The Bulls have seen three of their last four games stay 'under' the total and the same goes for Ohio. The only game that went 'over' the total during that stretch for the Bobcats came against the lowly Akron Zips in a contest where Ohio jumped ahead big early and eased off the gas defensively in a wild 55-34 win. Since then, the Bobcats have seen their last two games total just 47 and 41 points. Both teams want their offense to run through their ground attack. I do think both can find some success in that regard but that likely leads to plenty of long, clock-churning drives. Note that Buffalo has done an excellent job of stamping out opposing passing games, yielding more than 21 completions only twice while having yet to allow an opponent throw for 300+ yards. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 19-6 the last 25 times Ohio has come off three straight wins in conference play with that spot producing an average total of only 45.9 points. The 'under' has gone 8-5 the last 13 times the Bulls have come off a game that totalled 60+ points, as is the case here. Take the under (10*).

Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on UCLA minus the points over Stanford at 10:30 pm et on Saturday.

Credit Stanford for turning its season around with consecutive wins over Notre Dame and Arizona State. The Cardinal were circling the drain off to a 1-4 start prior to that, with their lone win having come against FCS squad Colgate. I think their run ends here, however, as they head to Westwood to face a UCLA squad that should be in a foul mood off a 45-30 loss at Oregon last week (we won with the 'over' in that game). The Stanford defense has held up well over the last two games but those were favorable matchups, unlike this one. Keep in mind, earlier this season we saw the Cardinal allow three Oregon State touchdown drives in the fourth quarter, at home no less, nearly coughing up a 24-10 lead. The week previous to that there was a stretch where they allowed three Oregon touchdowns in just over four minutes of action. There were also poor performances against USC and Washington. In that same vein, I look for the Bruins offense to go off in this matchup. UCLA had no defensive answers for Oregon in Eugene last Saturday but few teams do these days. This is about as close to the electric Ducks offense of yesteryear that we've seen in quite some time. Here, the Bruins should benefit from facing a pocket-passer of a QB in Tanner McKee. You would have to go back three games to find the last time he threw a touchdown pass and he's no threat to run, gaining positive yardage on the ground just once all season (he gained five yards on two attempts against Oregon State). Note that UCLA checks in an incredible 10-1 ATS when coming off three straight games allowing 31+ points, as is the case here. Meanwhile, despite the victory last week, Stanford is still just 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games against Pac-12 opponents. Take UCLA (10*).

Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between USC and Arizona at 7 pm et on Saturday.

We won with the 'over' in Arizona's most recent game - a wild 49-39 loss against the Huskies in Washington two weeks ago. I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as the Wildcats return home to host USC off their bye week on Saturday. The fact that Arizona was able to keep pace (to a certain extent) with Washington was no big surprise as that's been the Huskies M.O. this season - jump ahead and then let their opponent back in the game. The Wildcats have bombed away for 400+ passing yards against the likes of Cal, Colorado and Washington but I suspect they'll have a much more difficult time doing so against the well-rested Trojans here. USC is coming off a wild game of its own, falling by a 43-42 score on the road against Utah on October 15th. That marked the first time this season that USC allowed more than 257 yards through the air and I'm confident it will make amends here. Note that the Trojans have topped out at 42 points in three road games this season and I'm not sure even that crooked number would be enough to get this one 'over' the lofty total. I don't think USC wants to get involved in another track meet here, knowing that Arizona does have the QB in Jayden De Laura and receiving corps to potentially pull off a stunner. Instead, I look for the Trojans to lean on their ground attack, as they often have this season (they've topped out at 25 pass completions in a game), churning out long, clock-churning drives in an effort to shorten proceedings and stamp out any hope of a Wildcats upset. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 53-31 with USC coming off a game in which it scored 42+ points while the 'under' is 21-9 in Arizona's last 30 home contests after dropping consecutive games in-conference, as is the case here. Take the under (10*).

Big 12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma State and Kansas State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

After suffering a bad beat with the 'under' in Oklahoma State's double-overtime loss at TCU two weeks ago we went back to the well with the same play as the Cowboys returned home to host Texas last week. Unfortunately that result didn't go our way either as a high-scoring first half was ultimately the downfall for 'under' bettors such as ourselves. Here, I won't hesitate to take another shot with the 'under', however, as the Cowboys head back on the road to face upstart Kansas State, which checks in off a 38-28 loss to TCU last Saturday. In that loss against TCU, Kansas State lost do-it-all QB Adrian Martinez to injury. It remains to be seen whether he can play this week although it sounds like he's on the doubtful end of the spectrum. Regardless, I do expect the Oklahoma State defense to step up and carry over some positive momentum after holding Texas out of the end zone over the game's final 33+ minutes in a tight affair last week. It was the opposite story for Kansas State. It jumped ahead 28-10 in the second quarter against TCU and probably thought it would be able to cruise from there. Things didn't go as planned as the Horned Frogs went on to score the game's final 28 points in a 10-point victory. Without Martinez, the Wildcats were unable to score over the game's final 38+ minutes. Note that none of the last four meetings between these two teams over the last four years have come all that close to getting 'over' the total we're dealing with this week. The fact that the Cowboys have seen each of their last five games and six of seven overall go 'over' the total this season is a big reason why we're being offered such a generous total. Keep in mind, Kansas State is just one game removed from a contest that totalled just 19 points against Iowa State. Earlier in the season, the Wildcats were upset at home against Tulane in a game that reached only 27 points. Noting that the 'under' remains 40-23 in Oklahoma State's last 63 road games following an 'over' result and 35-17 the last 52 times it has gone 'away' off consecutive games totalling 70+ points, we'll go back to the well with the 'under' on Saturday. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Notre Dame and Syracuse at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Notre Dame is coming off a high-scoring affair last week as it rolled to a 44-21 win over UNLV in South Bend. The Irish have yet to post consecutive 'over' results this season, though, and I don't expect that trend to change as they head to Syracuse to face the upstart Orange on Saturday. The fact that Notre Dame broke out offensively last week wasn't all that surprising. It was up against a sagging UNLV defense and after an embarrassing 16-14 home loss against Stanford the previous week, the Runnin' Rebels were in the wrong place at the wrong time. Here, I expect the Irish offense to get brought back to Earth against a terrific Syracuse defense that is in a bounce-back spot of its own off a blown opportunity at Clemson last Saturday. Credit the Orange for hanging tough for a half against the Tigers. It allowed a touchdown midway through the first quarter but then held Clemson out of the end zone until nearly two minutes into the fourth quarter. The Syracuse offense has seemingly gotten more conservative as the season has gone on (and the schedule has toughened up). Note that the Orange season-high for passes completed in a game is 22 and that came in a contest where they still threw for 'only' 277 yards and scored just 22 points in a narrow win over Virginia. Throwing on the Irish is not easy task. Only one of Notre Dame's opponents this year has thrown for 300+ yards and that was North Carolina in a game where it was playing catch-up most of the way. Only Marshall ran for 200+ yards on the Irish and it took 50 attempts to get there. You get the picture. Notre Dame scored 45 points in a 24-point rout of the Orange in last year's meeting but it was a nearly five-touchdown favorite on that occasion. The gap has certainly closed this year and I think that lends itself to a lower-scoring affair. Take the under (8*).

Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Ohio State and Penn State at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Ohio State has been tearing through the opposition, scoring 45 points or more in all six games since putting up only 21 points in a low-scoring win over Notre Dame to open the campaign. Here, I do think there's a path for Penn State to stay competitive and ultimately do a reasonably good job of keeping the Buckeyes defense under wraps. Note that while Ohio State did score 54 points in a rout of Iowa last week, a lot of the Hawkeyes issues were self-inflicted. After scoring a touchdown around midway through the first quarter, Ohio State didn't reach the end zone again on offense until more than five minutes into the third quarter. Penn State bounced back nicely from a drubbing a the hands of Michigan one week previous, delivering a 45-17 rout of Minnesota on Saturday. Note that the Nittany Lions didn't allow a touchdown in that game until they were already ahead 17-3 with less than a minute remaining in the first half. The Golden Gophers didn't score again until nearly midway through the fourth quarter, already trailing by a score of 38-10 at the time. Note that Penn State has held five of its last six opponents to 17 points or less. Of course Ohio State poses a serious challenge and will undoubtedly score its share of points in this contest, but I don't anticipate Penn State getting ripped the way it did against Michigan's run-heavy attack two weeks ago. Offensively, the Nittany Lions gameplan should involve orchestrating long, clock-churning drives in an effort to shorten this contest and keep the ball out of the hands of the high-powered Ohio State offense. I do think that's well within the realm of possibility with seasoned QB Sean Clifford running the offense. The Nittany Lions were able to possess the football for 29:50 in last year's matchup and that was despite getting virtually nothing from their ground attack. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 33-17 in Penn State's last 50 games played at home following a home victory, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of just 49.0 points. Take the under (10*).

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between East Carolina and BYU at 8 pm et on Friday.

I don't think this is anywhere near the type of track meet that most are expecting as it's actually a critical game for both teams as far as potential Bowl standing goes. East Carolina is coming off a massive upset win over Central Florida on Saturday. The Knights had owned the Pirates for years and certainly entered the game playing well (including scoring 70 points in their previous contest) so that was an uplifting result for ECU to be sure. Credit the Pirates defense in that game as the only touchdown it allowed came when leading by a 17-3 score in the third quarter. ECU has certainly given up its share of yardage to opposing offenses but it has that ball-hawking ability, having forced six turnovers in the last two games alone. With that in mind, job number one for BYU's struggling offense will be to take care of the football. The Cougars have gotten away from their running game more than they'd like but that's had everything to do with game script as they've dropped their last three contests. I do think we see them go back to the run from the outset in this one in an effort to effectively shorten this game against a dangerous Pirates offense. Last time out against Liberty, BYU scored a pair of first quarter touchdowns but then didn't score again the rest of the way. After that embarrassing defensive performance (the Cougars allowed six Liberty scoring drives over a 34-minute stretch from the second to fourth quarter) I expect that unit to respond favorably here. This Cougars defense is too talented to struggle as badly as it has. Of course, facing Arkansas and Liberty in consecutive games is a tall task for even the best of defenses. Note that East Carolina has actually only played one true road game this season and it scored just nine points in that 15-point loss at Tulane. I mentioned this is a critical game for both teams in regard to Bowl game prospects. ECU does have what figures to be a layup in the final week of the season against Temple (it only needs one more win for Bowl eligibility) but you can be sure it would like to take care of business well before that. For BYU, things are a little tougher as they enter with just four wins and have only three games left on the schedule, including this one (it will face Boise State and Stanford - both on the road - to close out the regular season). I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair and I think that lends itself to a game of the lower-scoring variety in this case. Take the under (10*).

Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana minus the points over Southern Miss at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

Louisiana is absolutely playing its best football of the season right now and I think Southern Miss is ripe for the picking off consecutive wins - matching its longest winning streak of the season. The Ragin' Cajuns were overvalued early in the season, there's no question about that. They were favored by 11.5 and 9.5 points in their first two road games against Rice and Louisiana-Monroe and lost both contests outright. They followed up those two road defeats with another narrow home loss against South Alabama. The turnaround started two weeks ago, when the Ragin' Cajuns went on the road and upset Marshall by double-digits (as a double-digit underdog). From there, Louisiana routed Arkansas State 38-18 on Saturday. An injury to QB Chandler Fields has actually settled the situation under center with Ben Wooldridge taking over full-time. Keep in mind, the Ragin' Cajuns had been going with a two-man QB rotation, to mixed results. Suddenly Wooldridge has thrown for 546 yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions over the last two games. Over its last six quarters of action, Louisiana has had a 16-minute stretch where it put together four scoring drives against Marshall and scored four offensive touchdowns in a 13-minute stretch against Arkansas State. Meanwhile, the Ragin' Cajuns defense, which was poised to be one of the best units in the Sun Belt Conference entering the season but got off to a sluggish start, has also come around. Louisiana has completely stamped out opposing passing games over the last month, yielding just 61-of-121 passing. The Ragin' Cajuns defense, which has forced 17 turnovers this season, has to be frothing at the mouth at the thought of facing a Southern Miss offense that has coughed the football up nine times over the last three games. The Golden Eagles offense continues to struggle, even though the team has won consecutive games. They scored exactly 20 points in each of those victories. QB Zach Wilcke has struggled now that there's plenty of tape out there on him - he's thrown more than one touchdown pass only once this season while tossing seven interceptions over the last three games. Unlike Louisiana QB Wooldridge, Wilcke is fairly limited in terms of his running ability. RB Frank Gore Jr. is terrific but should the Golden Eagles fall behind as I expect here, it could be tough sledding for the dynamic back due to game script alone. Here, we'll note that Louisiana is a long-term 65-43 ATS when playing on the road from October on. Take Louisiana (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Oklahoma State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

We missed with the 'under' in excruciating fashion in Oklahoma State's double-overtime loss at TCU last Saturday. That was a 30-23 game with minutes remaining in the fourth quarter before TCU tied things up and we ultimately saw the Cowboys convert a 4th-and-9 in the first overtime that ended up sealing our fate with an 'under' 68.5 ticket. A lot had to go right (or wrong in our case) for that 'over' to hit. I don't expect to suffer a similar fate this week as we go back to the well with the same play, this time as Oklahoma State returns home to host Texas. The Longhorns are hitting their stride defensively after securing a hard-fought 24-21 win over Iowa State last Saturday (we won with the Cyclones plus the points in that game). Meanwhile, I don't think there's really any reason to get down on the Cowboys defense, despite coughing up last week's game. That had a lot to do with the offense not being able to stay on the field in the second half. Clearly, Oklahoma State got a little complacent after building an early 24-7 lead in that game. The Cowboys defense fell out of 'attack mode' from that point and certainly looked like it let down its guard up a couple of touchdowns in the fourth quarter. Texas has performed about as well offensively as anyone could have expected to this point of the season but opponents like Alabama and Iowa State have laid out a pretty good blueprint in terms of how to slow the Longhorns down and I do think Oklahoma State has the personnel in place to make good on that. Both teams want to run the football - in fact, Texas has topped out at 34 pass attempts this season - and I think we see the two ground attacks gain enough headway to effectively shorten proceedings on Saturday afternoon. Take the under (8*).

Pac-12 Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and Oregon at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

I really like the way this one sets up as a high-scoring affair between the Bruins and Ducks on Saturday afternoon. This is about as close to the high-flying Oregon teams of the past that we've seen in recent years. The Ducks are scoring at will. They most recently had one stretch where they scored three touchdowns in 14 minutes and then another where they hung four touchdowns on the board in 11 minutes - in the same game - against Arizona. The week previous they scored three touchdowns in the final four-and-a-half minutes of the first half against Stanford. While UCLA is certainly a better defensive team than both of those opponents, it's not as if the Bruins are the '85 Bears. The last time we saw UCLA it prevailed in a wild 42-32 game against Utah. That was a day where the Utes clearly weren't at the top of their game offensively, yet they still managed to eclipse 30 points. There was probably some reason for concern with this Bruins defense earlier in the season when we saw it allow South Alabama to put together four scoring drives in an 18-minute stretch in the first half of a 32-31 UCLA victory. The good news for the Bruins is that they have an explosive offense of their own. QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson is one of the more underrated players in college football in my opinion, as is RB Zach Charbonnet, who has seemingly been getting stronger with each passing game. Noting that the 'over' is now 10-1 in UCLA's last 11 games after committing one or fewer turnovers in its previous game and a perfect 6-0 in Oregon's last six home games following a win, I'll call for nothing short of a shootout on Saturday. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Texas Tech minus the points over West Virginia at 3 pm et on Saturday.

Off consecutive road losses against Kansas State and Oklahoma State and following its bye week, it's 'put up or shut up' time for Texas Tech. I fully expect to see the Red Raiders rise to the occasion against West Virginia, which checks in off a massive weeknight win over Baylor last week. That Mountaineers win over the Bears essentially turned on a defensive fumble return for a touchdown as Baylor was driving to potentially go ahead 24-10 late in the first half. After scoring a touchdown less than five minutes into the first quarter, the Mountaineers didn't reach the end zone again on offense until nearly five minutes into the third quarter. There's no real shame in either of Texas Tech's last two defeats. Poor first quarters essentially doomed the Red Raiders in those two contests. I do feel the extra week of preparation between games should serve to help Texas Tech clean up some of its recent issues. The Red Raiders have looked like a different team in Lubbock compared to on the road, going a perfect 3-0 including an impressive win over Texas the last time we saw them take this field. Here, we'll note that West Virginia is a woeful 13-33 ATS in its last 46 games after winning three of its previous four contests ATS, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Texas Tech is 46-26 ATS in its last 72 home games off a loss, which is also the situation here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 12.5 points in that spot. Take Texas Tech (8*).

C-USA Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana Tech plus the points over Rice at 3 pm et on Saturday.

Joe Aillet Stadium in Ruston, Louisiana has traditionally been a house of horrors for visiting teams. Rice knows that as it has dropped four straight trips here, never coming within fewer than 15 points of the Bulldogs over that stretch. While this year's Owls squad has held its own, and then some, reeling off five consecutive ATS wins entering Saturday's contest, I look for it to fall short here. Last week, Rice could only muster 14 points in a field goal loss on the road against a very average Florida Atlantic defense. The Owls offense has certainly shown some regression as the schedule has toughened up - their two highest-scoring games of the season to date came back in Weeks 2 and 3 against the likes of FCS squad McNeese State and Louisiana-Lafayette. For Louisiana Tech, this is obviously a big game in terms of its potential Bowl hopes as it enters with just two victories and looking ahead at the schedule, will have only a few more legitimate opportunities to pick up wins and approach that six-victory mark. There have been positives to take away from the Bulldogs 2-4 start to the campaign. Back in mid-September Louisiana Tech travelled to Death Valley to face Clemson and stuck around for the entire first half, trailing just 13-6. Clemson took over in the third quarter but the Bulldogs again showed plenty of fight in the fourth quarter, scoring a pair of touchdowns to close the gap to 14 points before giving up a couple of scores late. Even last week at North Texas, Louisiana Tech fell behind 21-3 early but rallied to close the gap to a single touchdown entering the fourth quarter. My point being, there have been times where the Bulldogs could have folded the tent but instead reached down and showed some resiliency. I'm not convinced they'll have to be all that resilient in this particular matchup as I believe they can control proceedings. While the Bulldogs have been gashed by opposing ground games, I'm not sure that Rice has the backfield to take full advantage. Note that the Owls check in averaging just 127 rush yards per game on 3.7 yards per rush. Rice has had a tendency to look gassed following games I would term 'defensive slugfests', noting that it has gone a woeful 1-10 ATS in its last 11 contests following a game in which both teams scored 17 points or less, as is the case here, outscored by a whopping margin of 22.0 points on average in that situation. From October on, Louisiana Tech has outscored opponents by an average margin of 9.4 points in its last 69 games played here in Ruston. While the Bulldogs have had a tough run going back to last season, they've yet to suffer consecutive ATS losses this season and have been outscored by a minuscule 0.4 points on average when coming off an ATS defeat since the start of last season (nine-game sample size). Take Louisiana Tech (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas and Baylor at 12 noon et on Saturday.

I think both teams have a keen interest in settling things down and avoiding a back-and-forth shootout in Waco on Saturday. Kansas certainly knows now that it's not going to hang with the big boys in the Big 12 by going touchdown for touchdown. That's especially true given the Jayhawks are without two of their best offensive players in QB Jalon Daniels and RB Daniel Hishaw. I do think the Jayhawks defense is better than it has showed over the last two games, in which it allowed 90 points against TCU and Oklahoma. It also faces a more manageable offensive opponent in Baylor this week. The Bears got involved in a somewhat unlikely track meet against West Virginia last Thursday. They've had a few extra days to prepare for this one and I expect them to come out strong defensively off consecutive losses in which they allowed a combined 79 points. The Bears manhandled the Kansas offense led by QB Jason Bean in last year's lone meeting, winning by a 45-7 score in Lawrence (we won with Baylor in that game). In fact, you would have to go back 11 meetings - all the way to 2011 - to find the last time the Jayhawks topped the 14-point mark against Baylor. Note that the 'under' has gone 19-8 in Baylor's last 27 games following a contest that saw both teams score 30+ points, as is the case here. After turning the football over five times in their last two games, the Bears will look to 'manage' this contest a little better, noting that the 'under' has cashed 10 of the last 12 times they've played at home after losing the turnover battle in consecutive games, resulting in an average total of just 51.2 points in that spot. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Tulsa and Temple at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

Both of these teams are coming off embarrassing losses although Tulsa has had an extra week to lick its wounds following a 53-21 beatdown at the hands of Navy. The Golden Hurricane accomplished quite a feat of defensive futility in that game, allowing the Midshipmen to put together seven scoring drives over a 26-minute stretch from the first to third quarter. That wasn't the first time Tulsa got torched in short order this season. Remember, back on September 24th at Ole Miss it yielded four consecutive Rebels touchdown drives in a 14-minute stretch in the second quarter. There were also brutal defensive performances against Wyoming and Northern Illinois to open the campaign. The good news is, the Golden Hurricane offense is anything but lifeless and matches up well against a Temple defense that just got rocked for 70 points at UCF last Thursday. After jumping ahead 10-7, Temple was outscored by a ridiculous 63-3 margin over the next 40 minutes of game action. Are the Owls what we would call 'fake tough guys' on defense? The case can certainly be made for that being the case as that was the second straight game they were bullied after handling three consecutive lukewarm opponents in FCS squad Lafayette, Rutgers and UMass. Last year, Temple could only muster 10 points in a 41-10 rout at the hands of Tulsa. I do think the Owls have a little more punch on offense this year, even if QB E.J. Warner (yes that's Kurt's son) was awful last week. Jose Barbon is a standout wide receiver and I don't think Tulsa has anyone in the secondary that can bottle him up, noting that he's gone off for 237 yards on 12 catches over the last two games - against tougher defensive opponents than he'll face here. Take the over (8*).

AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia and Georgia Tech at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

Last year, these two teams were involved in a wild shootout that went Virginia's way by a 48-40 score. That game saw a closing total of 65.5 points so a high-scoring affair was to be expected. How things have changed for both teams. Virginia was involved in plenty of shootouts last year with an electric offense and a defense that couldn't get many stops at all. The script has flipped this year. The Cavaliers offense continues to struggle in pass and run blocking, and generally appears broken. They've topped out at 34 points and that performance came way back in Week 1 against an FCS opponent in Richmond. In fact, that's the last time the Cavaliers eclipsed the 20-point mark. Teams have been able to run on Georgia Tech but Virginia doesn't seem to have anyone capable of taking the lead out of the backfield, and as I mentioned its offensive line hasn't helped matters, struggling mightily in run-blocking. Georgia Tech has turned things around following a 1-3 start, posting back-to-back conference wins over Pittsburgh and Duke. While QB Jeff Sims might be the Yellow Jackets best offensive player, he's really their only true threat. WR Malachi Carter has dealt with an injury and when he has played, hasn't looked quite right. One thing we know is that the Yellow Jackets want to run the football, racking up 30+ rush attempts in all six games so far this season. The gameplan has been to keep drives (and the clock) moving, effectively shortening the game and leaving the heavy lifting to the defense. That defense has certainly had a 'bend but don't break' type of philosophy, giving up yardage on the ground but doing a nice job of snuffing out opposing aerial attacks. Only one opponent has thrown for 300+ yards on them and that was Pitt (it needed 45 pass attempts to get to 305 yards and scored 'only' 21 points in the game). Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 19-4 the last 23 times Virginia has come off a game in which it ran for 40 or fewer yards, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 40.8 points in that spot. The idea is that the Cavaliers generally look to run the football after games where they're unable to do so. Note also that the 'under' is a long-term 53-29 with Georgia Tech coming off consecutive victories, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia State and Appalachian State at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday.

Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results in their most recent games but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Georgia State has attempted 30+ passes only once previously this season and that came against a non-existent Charlotte defense. The Panthers want to run the football and aren't likely to stray too far away from that gameplan against the Mountaineers on Wednesday. They've gained 200+ rushing yards in all but one of their games this season but I think they'll be hard-pressed to get there against an Appalachian State defense that has absolutely erased its opponents' ground attacks in three of its six games this season. While two of the Mountaineers last three opponents have racked up exactly 172 yards on the ground, those two teams needed 46 and 59 rush attempts to get there. If anything, Appalachian State's offense has regressed as the season has gone on. The Mountaineers did complete 40-of-53 passes for 395 yards against Texas State last time out, but scored 'only' 24 points in a losing effort. That marked the first time this season they had attempted more than 35 passes in a game and was clearly game script related. I don't think there's any question they want to be more balanced on offense, and game script should favor a run-heavy gameplan here with the Mountaineers checking in as double-digit favorites. Last year's matchup between these two teams totalled 61 points but that had a lot to do with Georgia State's carelessness with the football (or perhaps more to do with the Mountaineers ball-hawking nature a year ago) as Appalachian State scored 45 points fuelled by three interceptions. This year's Mountaineers squad hasn't been nearly as turnover-happy - yet to force more than two turnovers in any of their first six games. It's been a different story for Georgia State as it has forced eight turnovers in its last two games alone and 15 on the season. That should only lead to Appalachian State putting an even stronger emphasis on taking care of the football and churning out long, clock-eating drives on Wednesday. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 19-7 the last 26 times Georgia State has come off a conference win, leading to an average total of 51.5 points. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between USC and Utah at 8 pm et on Saturday.

The Utes had to come away embarrassed by their defensive performance against UCLA last week, suffering a 42-32 defeat. While that game ended up getting into the 70's, it actually saw just seven points scored in the first quarter and the score was 14-10 UCLA at the end of the first half. Things didn't go Utah's way in the second half and I certainly expect it to make amends here, by keeping proceedings far more under control. Keep in mind, the Utes are without one of their top offensive players from the start of the campaign in TE Brant Kuithe. They can ill afford to get involved in another shootout here against an undefeated USC squad. We didn't see it much last week as the Utes were forced to play from behind most of the way but they certainly will want to possess the football for extended stretches and effectively shorten this game with long, clock-churning drives. I'm not convinced the big play potential will be there against a solid Trojans defense. Save for allowing two unanswered fourth quarter touchdowns in a blowout win at Stanford back in Week 2, the USC defense has been outstanding this season. It had a brief lapse early in the second quarter last Saturday against Washington State, allowing two touchdowns in just over three minutes but that was it as it held the Cougars to just those 14 points in another lopsided victory. The last time we saw the Trojans play on the road they showed the ability to win a 'grind-it-out' type of affair, prevailing by a 17-14 score at Oregon State on September 24th. It is worth noting that USC didn't reach the end zone in that contest until the first minute of the third quarter. The Beavers did lay out a pretty good defensive blueprint for how to slow the Trojans offense, something the Utes will look to replicate here - again, job one will be simply holding onto and moving the football on offense in an effort to keep their defense fresh - something they weren't able to do last week. USC QB Caleb Williams is going to be a handful for the Utah defense but it is worth noting that he hasn't been running the football at will as much as you might expect. In two previous road games, he ran for just 31 yards on 18 attempts. He's topped out at nine rushing attempts in five of six games so far this season. While last year's matchup between these two teams ultimately totalled 68 points in a Utah road upset, we're dealing with a considerably higher posted total this time around (last year's game saw a closing total of just 52.5 points). I'm not sure that it's warranted. Take the under (8*).

SEC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Mississippi State and Kentucky at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

Mississippi State has seen three straight games go 'over' the total (based on closing numbers - we played the 'under' early in the week prior to its game against Arkansas last week before the total moved seven points) but I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday in Lexington. Note that the Bulldogs have forced seven turnovers while turning the football over just once themselves over the last three games - a big reason they racked up 45, 42 and 40 points over those three contests, all victories, also notably all at home. In two previous road games this season we've seen Mississippi State hang 40+ points on a bad Arizona defense and score just 16 points the next week at LSU. Here, the Bulldogs will face a tough challenge against a Kentucky squad that has held all six opponents to 24 points or less this season. The Wildcats are expected to have QB Will Levis back for Saturday's game and most expect the offense to immediately take off after scoring just 14 points in a disappointing home loss against South Carolina last week. I'm not so easily convinced. Remember, just two games back, with Levis on the field, Kentucky scored just 19 points in a loss to Ole Miss. While Mississippi State is known for its high-powered offense, its defense has been outstanding as well. Case in point, last week it didn't allow a touchdown against Arkansas until it was already ahead 21-3 with less than two minutes remaining in the first half. It has topped out at 276 passing yards allowed this season and that came in a game where Arizona attempted 54 passes and scored just 17 points. While last year's matchup between these two teams did go 'over' the total, it also featured a lower total than we're working with here. You would have to go back five meetings in the series to find the last time the two teams combined to score more than 48 points. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Washington at 5:30 pm et on Saturday.

All of the ingredients are there for a true shootout between the Wildcats and Huskies on Saturday in Seattle. These two teams were involved in an ugly 21-16 affair in favor of Washington last year. Keep in mind, a low-scoring game was to be expected as the total was set in the mid-40's for that one. Expect a much different story to unfold here. Arizona might not have the worst defense in the FBS but it's in the conversation. Opponents have had their way with the Wildcats, both on the ground and through the air, and Washington is well-positioned to take advantage as well - not to mention in a foul mood off consecutive road losses against UCLA and Arizona State. If the Wildcats are to have any hope of staying competitive in this one they're going to need QB Jayden De Laura to come up big. My concern for the Huskies defense here is their secondary. I don't think Washington has anyone capable of containing Arizona WR Jacob Cowing, who is capable of blowing the top off even the most skilled secondaries. Meanwhile, the Washington offense should feast in this matchup. There's really nothing the Wildcats defend particularly well, noting there was a 14-minute stretch where they yielded three touchdowns against Oregon last week...and then another seven-minute period where they gave up three more TD scores...that's right, in the same game. With Washington's tendency to let up late (it has allowed 29 fourth quarter points in its last two victories), the potential is certainly there for late scoring in this one. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 10-1 the last 11 times Washington has come off an outright loss as a double-digit favorite against a conference opponent, as is the case here. Take the over (8*).

Big 12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma State and TCU at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

I really like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting on Saturday afternoon in Fort Worth. This is obviously a massive Big 12 showdown as both teams enter sporting perfect 5-0 records. Oklahoma State is coming off consecutive wild, high-scoring wins over Baylor and Texas Tech to open its Big 12 schedule. Meanwhile, TCU won (and covered) in thrilling fashion on the road against previously undefeated Kansas last Saturday, scoring at least 38 points for the fifth straight time to open the campaign. I believe both teams will be facing their toughest defensive test of the season on Saturday. Note that game script has been a big factor in the Cowboys last two high-scoring results. Last week against Texas Tech, two early touchdown scores (one by each team) in the game's first four minutes ultimately led to a back-and-forth shootout. Keep in mind, after giving up a Texas Tech touchdown just under three minutes into the second quarter, the Cowboys held the Red Raiders out of the end zone with the exception of one score around midway through the third quarter. Two weeks ago against Baylor, Oklahoma State jumped ahead 23-3 and didn't yield a Bears touchdown until nearly three minutes into the second half. Meanwhile, TCU gave up two touchdowns in the first 17 minutes against Oklahoma two weeks ago but then didn't allow another touchdown score until the outcome had long been decided, up 55-17 just shy of four minutes into the fourth quarter. Last week, the Horned Frogs didn't allow a Kansas touchdown until just over two minutes into the second half. Things went a bit sideways from there as TCU was geared toward facing dual-threat QB Jaylon Daniels but after he suffered an injury, Jake Bean took over the Jayhawks offense and bombed away. After Oklahoma State won last year's matchup between these two teams by a 63-17 score, you can be sure that TCU has little interest in getting involved in a shootout here, regardless how much confidence it has in QB Max Duggan. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-1 in the Cowboys last 10 games when playing on the road off a home win but non-cover as a favorite, resulting in an average total of just 46.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs have seen the 'under' cash in four of their last five games following consecutive contests in which 60+ points were scored, as is the case here. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Iowa State plus the points over Texas at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Iowa State enters this game reeling on the heels of three straight losses while Texas is brimming with confidence following consecutive wins, including a big 49-0 thumping over Oklahoma in last Saturday's Red River Shootout. The Cyclones have taken the last three meetings in this series and you would have to go back eight meetings, all the way to 2014, to find the last time either team scored more than 30 points in this matchup. I don't think getting over the hump against the Cyclones is going to be a slam dunk for the Longhorns here and will gladly grab the generous helping of points with underdog Iowa State. The season started well enough for Iowa State as it posted three straight victories, including an 'upset' win on the road against rival Iowa. The Cyclones ground game was rolling and the defense was firing on all cylinders. The good news is, the defense has continued to play well. It's been the offense that has let them down. I do think we'll see the Cyclones get back to running the football in an effort to shorten this game on Saturday. You can run on the Longhorns, as the likes of Alabama, UTSA, Texas Tech and even Oklahoma have shown. Texas will of course want to run the football as well, but it could be tough sledding against a Cyclones defense that has held all six opponents to 131 or fewer rushing yards on just 3.1 yards per rush. Just two games back we saw Iowa State allow two second quarter touchdowns against Kansas before shutting the Jayhawks out the rest of the way (that was when Kansas was at full strength on offense with a healthy Jalon Daniels and Daniel Hishaw). The Cyclones gave up a touchdown less than three minutes into the game against Kansas State last Saturday but then held the Wildcats out of the end zone for the remainder of the contest. Here, we'll note that Iowa State is a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four times it has come off consecutive ATS losses, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Texas checks in 1-4 ATS the last five times it has come off consecutive SU wins and is just 5-7 ATS the last 12 times it has followed up a 37+ point performance, which is also the situation here. Take Iowa State (8*).

AAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Navy and Houston at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

While five of the last seven meetings in this series have gone 'over' the total, two of the last three matchups have stayed 'under' including last year's 31-24 SMU victory. Navy exploded for 53 points in last week's blowout win over Tulsa but there's little chance we see it repeat that performance here. The Midshipmen benefited from four Golden Hurricane turnovers in that contest. It's worth noting that prior to that game, Navy had been held to 23 points or less in each of its first four contests this season, including 13 or less in three of those games. If the Midshipmen are going to keep this one competitive on Friday, they're going to need to come up with another strong defensive performance. Note that they've actually held up well on that side of the football this season and particularly of late. Navy enters this contest having yielded just six offensive touchdowns over their last 12 quarters of action. SMU isn't one-dimensional on offense by any means, but it hasn't exactly been setting the world on fire with its ground attack. The Mustangs have attempted 49+ passes in three straight games but that's had more to do with game script than anything else as they've either been trailing or involved in tightly-contested affairs. As a double-digit favorite here, the potential is there for them to lean a little more heavily on their running game to take some of the load off of QB Tanner Mordecai, who has thrown just five touchdowns to go along with five interceptions over the last three games. Navy's gameplan will obviously involve effectively shortening this game but churning out long, time-consuming drives with its triple-option offense. Despite gaining just 177 rushing yards on 53 attempts in last year's meeting, the Midshipmen still won the time of possession battle, holding onto the football for 32+ minutes. It's also worth noting that they 'only' allowed 31 points despite SMU completing 30-of-40 passes for 324 yards. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 4-1 in Navy's last five games following an outright underdog victory, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' has cashed four of the last six times SMU has come off consecutive games totalling 60+ points, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Baylor and West Virginia at 7 pm et on Thursday.

Baylor enters this contest off a 36-25 road loss against Oklahoma State on October 1st. Off its lone previous defeat this season it responded by absolutely manhandling Texas State the next week, yielding just seven points in a lopsided victory. While it certainly faces a tougher bounce-back spot on the road against West Virginia this week, I'm confident we'll see the Bears defense rise to the occasion. West Virginia scored just 20 points in a blowout loss at Texas last time out, failing to score in that game until the closing seconds of the first half - after it had already fallen behind 28-0. It did add two more touchdowns in the fourth quarter but that was with the Longhorns letting down their guard after leading by a 35-7 score. Here, I'm expecting a much tighter contested affair, as indicated by the short pointspread. Note that two games back, we also saw the Mountaineers offense struggle to get going against Virginia Tech, failing to reach the end zone until the final minute of the first half in that contest as well. Against a Bears defense that will certainly be in a foul mood off a loss, things won't get any easier here. While Baylor did ultimately put up a respectable 25 points in that aforementioned loss to Oklahoma State, it's worth noting that it was held out of the end zone until nearly three minutes into the third quarter, and that was after the Cowboys had jumped ahead 23-3. Things opened up a bit for the Bears from there but again, Oklahoma State was playing with a considerable lead, a game script I don't envision unfolding in this one. We'll note that the 'under' is 8-3 in Baylor's last 11 games with the total set between 49.5 and 56 points, as is the case here at the time of writing. The 'under' also checks in 6-3 in West Virginia's last nine contests when following a road loss, which is also the situation here. Take the under (8*).

AAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Temple plus the points over Central Florida at 7 pm et on Thursday.

Temple plays about as ugly a brand of football as you'll find but it does succeed ATS, having covered in three of its five games so far this season. Here, I do think the Owls can run a little bit and ultimately move the chains and possess the football long enough to stay inside the pointspread. Temple has dropped each of the last five meetings in this series, failing to defeat UCF since 2016. It would be easy for the Knights to overlook the Owls coming off a big win over SMU and looking ahead to an away showdown against East Carolina next week. While UCF did prevail by a lopsided 41-19 score against a good SMU squad last week, that game ultimately turned on a couple of third quarter Knights touchdowns and from there the Mustangs came unglued trying to rally and UCF extended the winning margin. It wasn't until less than six minutes remaining in the first half before the Knights reached the end zone in that game. Two games back against Georgia Tech, UCF didn't score an offensive touchdown until nearly five minutes into the fourth quarter. Temple has turned the football over 13 times through five games this season yet hasn't given up more than 30 points in a single contest. I do think we'll see the Owls go a little more conservative offensively in this one, simply looking to salvage some confidence from this two-game away set after a three-touchdown loss at Memphis last time out. On the flip side, the Knights might want to scale back dual-threat QB John Rhys Plumlee a little as he has led the team in rushing in all but one of its five games this season and it will certainly need his exploits at full-go down the stretch. Here, we'll note that UCF checks in 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a victory by 21+ points and 2-10 ATS in its last 12 contests after scoring 37+ points in its previous game. Look for the Knights to 'manage' this game and it ultimately comes at the expense of an ATS victory. Take Temple (10*).

Sun Belt Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Louisiana and Marshall at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday.

You've heard the saying that when a coach says he has two capable quarterbacks that really means he has no capable quarterbacks. That might be a bit harsh but I think it rings true with the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns this season. Ben Wooldridge and Chandler Fields have split time under center with neither showing the ability to take over the reins entirely. I do think the Ragin' Cajuns have a capable enough offense led by RB Chris Smith to at least move the chains with some consistency and churn out some long drives in this midweek affair. I'm just not convinced they can finish a lot of drives with seven's on the board. In fact, Louisiana has scored just one offensive touchdown over its last seven quarters of football and that's despite its last two contests coming against anything but defensive powerhouses in South Alabama and Louisiana-Monroe. Marshall's biggest issue a year ago and ultimately the biggest reason it dropped a 36-21 decision in its matchup against Louisiana was its lack of run defense. It has shown improvement in that regard, however, this season. Only one opponent has gained more than 100 yards on the ground against the Thundering Herd this season and that was Notre Dame, picking up 130 rushing yards but needing 37 attempts to get there. Offensively, Marshall has topped out at 28 points in regulation time in four games (it reached that number twice) since opening the campaign with a 55-3 rout of FCS squad Norfolk State. RB Khalal Laborn has proven to be a big get for the Herd, running for 100+ yards in all five games this season. I do think Marshall will look to manage his workload a little bit moving forward though, noting that he's racked up 30+ carries in two straight and three of his last four games. Louisiana has held opponents to just 3.8 yards per rush this season but did turn in one bad game against the run, that coming against Louisiana-Monroe two contests back. The Warhawks rushing numbers were boosted by one 75-yard run - outside of that they actually gained just 152 yards on their other 38 attempts. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Texas A&M and Alabama at 8 pm et on Saturday.

I think both of these teams have a keen interest in getting this one over with as quickly as possible, albeit for much different reasons. For Texas A&M, it's only legitimate shot at staging another upset win over Alabama comes by keeping offensive drives alive with its ground game and effectively shortening this contest. Job number one for the Aggies will be taking care of the football after a slew of miscues led to a blowout loss at Mississippi State last Saturday (we won with the Bulldogs in that game). It's telling that last week's setback was A&M's worst defensive performance of the season as it really wasn't all that bad in that regard, holding Mississippi State off the scoreboard until nearly nine minutes into the second quarter and not allowing an offensive touchdown over an 18-minute stretch from the last minute of the second quarter until the third minute of the fourth quarter. For Alabama, it simply wants to pick up a win and move on to next week's critical showdown against currently undefeated Tennessee. After getting an injury scare with QB Bryce Young last week - but still exploding for 49 points in a rout of Arkansas - I think we see the Crimson Tide settle things down here. After a strong first half, Alabama played far too loose defensively in the third quarter of last week's game, something I believe we'll see it make amends for back in Tuscaloosa this week. Note that the 'under' is 34-18 the last 52 times the Tide have returned home following a road win in-conference, as is the case here. Take the under (8*).

MWC Game of the Month. My selection is on Air Force minus the points over Utah State at 7 pm et on Saturday.

I really like the way this one sets up for Air Force. The Falcons are coming off an ugly 13-10 victory over Navy last Saturday. Bettors lined up to back Air Force in that contest and got burned as it never came close to sniffing out a cover. Here, I think the wrong thing to do would be to back off of the Falcons. They're in a smash spot as they make the trip to Logan to take on Utah State. The Aggies are off to a 1-4 start and while they did put up more of a fight than most expected, they still dropped a 38-26 decision against BYU last Thursday. Utah State jumped out to an early 7-0 start in that contest with surprising starting QB Cooper Legas clearly catching the BYU defense off guard. From there, however, it managed just two more touchdowns the rest of the way with one of those coming in the game's final two minutes when the outcome was all but decided. Just two games back, when the Aggies were fresh off an embarrassing 35-7 home loss against FCS squad Weber State and appeared to be in prime bounce-back position, they gave up three UNLV touchdowns over a seven-minute stretch early in the contest and ultimately lost by 10 points at home. We've already successfully backed Air Force twice this season, at home against Colorado and Nevada, while also successfully fading it in its lone previous loss - a stunning 17-14 weeknight defeat in Wyoming back on September 16th. I'm not going to knock the Falcons over last week's tight decision against a struggling Navy squad as you never really know how those 'Commander-in-Chief Trophy' games will go (just ask Army about its game against Navy last December). Air Force has undoubtedly had this game circled after dropping a wild 49-45 loss against Utah State in last year's meeting. That was a much stronger Aggies squad, on both sides of the football. I have little confidence in Utah State's ability to get back in this game should it fall behind as Air Force controls the football, controls the clock and ultimately controls the outcome. Take Air Force (10*).

My selection is on Ole Miss minus the points over Vanderbilt at 4 pm et on Saturday.

We faded Ole Miss last Saturday and were rewarded with a Kentucky ATS cover in a 22-19 Rebels victory. For the first time this season the Rebels offense looked ordinary as it didn't reach the end zone again after scoring its second touchdown of the game with just under a minute remaining in the first quarter. This is a blow-up spot for the Ole Miss offense as it heads to Nashville to face Vanderbilt. The Commodores check in 3-2 on the season but inconsistency has been their calling card. I just don't think they're ever going to regain the form that saw them score 63 points in their Week 0 rout of Hawaii. It's easy to forget as they didn't play last week but the last time we saw the Commodores they were blasted 55-3 by Alabama. Vandy has now gone five consecutive quarters without scoring a touchdown. I don't like the way its quarterback situation has been handled this season as dual-threat QB Mike Wright has been benched for A.J. Swann. Save for one-off career games from RB Ray Wright and WR Will Sheppard against Northern Illinois, the Commodores offense really hasn't been anything special. It's a different story for Ole Miss. As I mentioned, the Rebels didn't have their best offensive performance last Saturday but that was against a tough Kentucky defense. Two games back, the Rebels had a stretch where they scored four touchdowns in 13 minutes in the second quarter against Tulsa. They also scored six touchdowns in the first three quarters in a road win over Georgia Tech - a similar opponent to Vandy - back on September 17th. On the flip side, in its last 16 quarters of football, the Rebels defense has allowed just six touchdowns. I see this as a 'squash match' for visiting Ole Miss. Take Ole Miss (8*).

Pac-12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and UCLA at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

We won with UCLA against Washington last week as that matchup set up well for the Bruins to stay undefeated while also ending the Huskies perfect run in what turned out to be a wild, high-scoring game. It's a much different story this week as I like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair as the visiting Utes aim to deliver their fifth straight victory since dropping their opener at Florida. That trip to The Swamp to face the Gators in Week 1 was a tough one to be sure. Often teams just aren't ready to get punched in the mouth right out of the gate and I think that was the case with Utah - even though that result against Florida certainly could have gone either way. Since then, the Utes have been nothing short of dominant. Over their last four games they've allowed a grand total of four touchdowns. The only touchdown scores they allowed against San Diego State and Arizona State came when those games were already long decided, up 35-0 in the closing minutes of the fourth quarter against the Aztecs and 34-6 as the clock wound down against the Sun Devils. Last week, Utah gave up a touchdown in the first six minutes of the game against Oregon State but that was it as far as touchdowns go the rest of the way as the Utes cruised to a 42-16 victory. I am somewhat concerned about the season-ending injury to Utah TE Brant Kuithe. He was a big part of what the Utes do on offense and certainly added to the comfort level of QB Cam Rising. Kuithe led the Utes in receiving in last year's meeting with UCLA. That's not to say Utah can't be explosive without him - we still saw it put up 40+ points in last week's win over Oregon State, but his absence is notable to be sure. While UCLA doesn't shy away from shootouts often, I think it might be well-served to employ more of a clock-control offensive gameplan here, knowing its own defensive deficiencies. Keep in mind, this matchup went Utah's way by a 44-24 score last year. Forcing nine turnovers over its last four games, UCLA has been gaining plenty of extra offensive possessions but Utah isn't likely to be as generous, noting that it has turned the football over just four times in five games this season. I expect to see both teams churn out some long, clock-eating drives over the course of this game. While the Bruins defense has struggled for extended stretches, we also have to give it credit for last week's win over Washington as it gave up a touchdown in the game's first five minutes but then held the Huskies out of the end zone until there were just over five minutes remaining in the third quarter. The Bruins did give up two more touchdowns in the fourth quarter but that was when the outcome was all but decided, up 40-16 (Washington tacked on a pair of two-point conversions to make the final score a little more flattering). Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 30-14 the last 44 times Utah has played on the road following a home win by 17+ points with that spot producing an average total of just 48.1 points. The 'under' is also 87-60 in the Bruins last 147 games following an 'over' result, resulting in an average total of 54.6 points in that spot. I mentioned last year's matchup between these two teams totalled 68 points, sailing 'over' the closing total of 60.5. We're dealing with a higher number this time around and I'll point out the last time these teams met on this field we saw just 51 total points in 2018. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Arkansas and Mississippi State at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Arkansas enters this game sporting a 4-1 o/u mark this season while Mississippi State has seen each of its last two contests go 'over' the total. I look for a different story to unfold when the two teams meet up on Saturday in Starkville. It's no secret that Arkansas wants to run the football and in this particular matchup, certainly wants to go on long, clock-churning drives in an effort to keep Mike Leach's air raid offense off of the field as much as possible. Note that the Razorbacks have yet to complete 20 or more passes in a game this season. They've been racking up the rushing yardage but they've also been running the ball 40, 50 and even 60 times per contest. While they've gained close to 300 rushing yards in two meetings with Mississippi State over the last two years, they've needed 80+ attempts to get there. The Bulldogs can sling it with underrated QB Will Rogers at the helm. With that being said, looking back to last year's meeting, they completed 36-of-48 passes for 417 yards and still 'only' scored 28 points in a three-point defeat. While Mississippi State did put up 42 points against a good Texas A&M defense last week (we won with the Bulldogs in that game), they actually went from just under one minute remaining in the first quarter until over two minutes into the fourth quarter without reaching the end zone. They're also just two games removed from a 31-16 loss at LSU in which they didn't score a touchdown from two minutes remaining in the first half on. The last time we saw the Hogs play away from home - two weeks ago against Texas A&M at AT&T Stadium in Dallas - they scored twice in a five-minute stretch in the first quarter but then managed just one touchdown the rest of the way, that coming when they were trailing by nine points nearly five minutes into the fourth quarter. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 24-11 the last 35 times Mississippi State has played at home after a game that totalled 60+ points, as is the case here. Take the under (8*).

SEC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and LSU at 12 noon et on Saturday.

I really like the way this one sets up in early action on Saturday. Tennessee is coming off a wild 38-33 win over rival Florida two weeks ago, elevating it into the nation's Top-10. That game really told us all we need to know about the Volunteers. While they can score at will, they'll also give up their share of points. After a first quarter that saw just a single Tennessee field goal in terms of scoring, the rest of the contest was a wild ride. The second quarter saw four touchdowns over a 13-minute stretch. Three touchdowns were scored over an eight-minute stretch in the third quarter and three more touchdowns were tacked on in another eight-minute period in the fourth quarter. Keep in mind, outside of a road date with Pitt earlier in the season, the Vols hadn't really faced an opponent that could provide much heartburn offensively. The Tennessee offense has been outstanding through four games. What I really like about this offense is the way it pours it on even after games are long decided. Note that two games back against Akron, the Vols entered the fourth quarter with a 49-3 lead and proceeded to tack on two more touchdowns. In its season-opener, Tennessee added a fourth quarter touchdown to finish with 59 points in a rout of Ball State. The Vols will likely need all the points they can get on the road against a surging LSU squad here. The Tigers haven't been all that impressive offensively but I do believe a breakout is coming. We saw an expected defensive slugfest on the road against Auburn last Saturday but earlier in the season we saw a glimpse of what might be in store for this offense in a 31-16 win over Mississippi State. After getting off to a slow start, we saw LSU score three touchdowns in just over a nine-minute stretch in the fourth quarter. Dual-threat QB Jayden Daniels threw for more than 200 yards while running for just shy of 100 against a pretty good Bulldogs defense on that night. In a game where the Tigers could have easily taken it easy and cruised to a comfortable win, they scored five offensive touchdowns over a 15-minute stretch in the first half against FCS squad Southern University back in Week 2. The explosiveness is there and I think we'll see it in a shootout against the Vols here. Take the over (10*).

Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on TCU minus the points over Kansas at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Kansas has turned heads in the early going this season, reeling off five consecutive victories to break into the Top 25. I expect the Jayhawks run to end here, however. Last week's 14-11 win over Iowa State was the high point for Kansas - finally earning it some national recognition for its hot start. It will be running into a juggernaut in the TCU Horned Frogs on Saturday. TCU absolutely throttled Oklahoma last Saturday, scoring five touchdowns in an 18-minute stretch in the first half to jump ahead and never look back in a 55-24 win. That's just the tip of the iceberg though. Two weeks ago the Horned Frogs scored four touchdowns in a 22-minute period in the first half en route to a 42-34 win over SMU, on the road no less, and there were also earlier merciless beatings of Colorado and FCS squad Tarleton State by a combined 97-30 margin. While the TCU defense has been somewhat forgiving in the early going this season, I will note that it allowed just two Oklahoma touchdowns in the first three quarters of last week's game. Against SMU it was already ahead 28-7 before the Mustangs caught it with its guard down and ultimately made a game of it. Here, I'm confident we'll see the Horned Frogs keep their mind on task against a conference opponent on the road. I hate to say it, but I do feel that Kansas has been very fortunate to start 5-0. Both West Virginia and Houston appeared poised to end the Jayhawks undefeated run earlier in the season but I think they both got caught thinking they could shift it into cruise control after building two-touchdown first quarter leads. This is obviously a much different Jayhawks squad and one that shouldn't be dismissed. I'm just not convinced the Kansas offense can keep within arm's reach in this one, noting that Iowa State laid out a pretty good blueprint for slowing dual-threat QB Jalon Daniels last Saturday, even in a losing effort (Daniels completed just 7-of-14 passes for 93 yards and ran for only nine yards on eight attempts). Kansas lost RB Daniel Hishaw to an injury in that contest as well, heaping a little more pressure on Daniels moving forward. Here, we'll note that Kansas is a woeful 35-54 ATS the last 89 times it has come off a home victory. In the Jayhawks last 21 games as an underdog they've been outscored by an average margin of 21.9 points. While I understand this is a different Kansas team, I'm still not completely sold on it being a legitimate Big 12 contender. Take TCU (10*).

My selection is on Nevada minus the points over Colorado State at 10:30 pm et on Friday.

You won't find me backing Nevada to often this season, in fact we successfully faded the Wolf Pack in their most recent game two weeks ago - a 48-20 loss at Air Force. This is more of a fade of Colorado State than anything else. While few were paying attention, the Rams fell to 0-4 on the campaign with a 41-10 loss to FCS squad Sacramento State prior to their bye week. While Sacramento State is a capable squad having gone 4-0 so far this season, its four wins have come against opponents that have combined to go 4-14. In that lopsided defeat at the hands of the Hornets, the Rams failed to reach the end zone until the final two minutes of the first half. They've managed to score just two touchdowns in their last nine quarters of football. On the flip side, the CSU defense has been a train wreck. Note that it allowed Washington State - a good offensive team but by no means a juggernaut - to score four touchdowns over a 21-minute stretch two games back. Nevada is off to a disappointing 2-3 start. I say disappointing because the Wolf Pack did post consecutive wins to open the campaign. Of course, they've faced a tough slate of opponents over the last few games including one of the best teams in FCS, Incarnate Word followed by Iowa and Air Force with the latter two matchups coming on the road. This is a key 'get right' spot before Nevada travels to Hawaii and then the schedule really toughens up. The last time we saw the Wolf Pack here at home they jumped out to a 17-3 first quarter lead against Incarnate Word. They seemingly thought a win was already in the bag at that point, which was obviously a big mistake as Incarnate Word can score points in bunches, as it did in that contest. The Rams don't figure to pose a similar challenge here. Note that Nevada is 41-24 ATS the last 65 times it has played at home after an ATS loss but better still, it checks in 24-11 ATS the last 35 times it has played at home off a loss by 17+ points, as is the case here. Take Nevada (8*).

Mountain West Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between UNLV and San Jose State at 10:30 pm et on Friday.

We won with San Jose State in its rout of Wyoming last Saturday but I'll go a different route and back the 'under' as the Spartans return home to host UNLV on Friday. The Runnin' Rebels are coming off a tougher-than-expected 31-20 win over New Mexico last week. UNLV gave up two first quarter touchdowns in that contest but didn't allow another touchdown the rest of the way in that come-from-behind victory. Concerning was the fact that it took the Rebels until over midway through the third quarter to reach the end zone. It's been a case of feast-or-famine for the UNLV offense this season. Two games back against a weak Utah State squad, the Rebels scored three touchdowns in a seven-minute stretch early in the first half but then managed just one more touchdown the rest of the way. Here, UNLV will face a tough San Jose State defense that has given up just two touchdowns over its last six quarters of football. This will undoubtedly be UNLV's toughest defensive test since being held to just 14 points in a six-point loss on the road against California back on September 10th. Last Saturday, the Spartans put up 33 points in the win over Wyoming but that was largely a result of the Cowboys offense not being able to stay on the field, effectively leaving their defense out to dry. San Jose State controlled the football for more than 36 minutes in that contest. It is worth noting that it wasn't until more than eight minutes into the second quarter that the Spartans managed to reach the end zone in that game. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 the last seven times San Jose State has come off consecutive wins, as is the case here. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on San Jose State minus the points over Wyoming at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

I can't help but feel that this is a 'anything you can do, I can do better' situation favoring San Jose State. The Spartans are off to a modest 2-1 start but there's no shame in their lone defeat as it came on the road against Auburn, by only eight points. Last week, we saw San Jose State follow up its bye week with a lopsided 34-6 win over Western Michigan. In that game, we saw the Spartans offense finally get loose, scoring three offensive touchdowns in a 19-minute stretch at one point. Going back over its last two games, San Jose State has allowed just three touchdowns. This is a talented, experienced defense that should eat against a beatable Wyoming offensive line and a shaky starting quarterback in Andrew Peasley. Once BYU got rolling, Wyoming simply had no answers defensively last week, at one point allowing three touchdowns in a 14-minute stretch bridging the second and third quarters. Credit the Cowboys for prevailing by a 17-14 score against Air Force two weeks ago (we won with Wyoming in that game) but it's generally been an inconsistent start to the season on both sides of the football. Remember, back in Week 1 we saw Wyoming fail to reach the end zone while also allowing five offensive touchdown scores against a lukewarm Illinois squad. You could chalk that up to rust but the next week, the Cowboys gave up four touchdowns over a 24-minute period against Tulsa. There are some good pieces in place for Craig Bohl's Cowboys (as I noted in my play supporting them two weeks ago) but it's still likely to be a long season. Noting that San Jose State took last year's meeting by a 27-21 score, we'll go back to the well with the Spartans here. Take San Jose State (8*).

My selection is on Mississippi State minus the points over Texas A&M at 4 pm et on Saturday.

Texas A&M goes from being the hunters to the hunted this week after 'upsetting' then-10th ranked Arkansas by a 23-21 score at AT&T Stadium last week. Here, it's Mississippi State that will be looking to break back into the Top 25 as it hosts the Aggies in Starkville. I like the Bulldogs chances of delivering a convincing victory. Texas A&M has come up with consecutive much-needed victories over Miami and Arkansas after its stunning loss at home against Appalachian State back on September 10th. I will note that the Aggies appeared on their way to another loss against Arkansas last week as the Hogs were at A&M's three-yard line late in the first half looking to jump ahead 21-7 before fumbling with A&M returning that fumble for a 97-yard touchdown. That obviously turned the tide in that contest. The Aggies made the switch to Max Johnson at quarterback prior to the win over Miami two weeks ago. The fact is, Johnson has done little other than 'manage' the last two games, completing only 21-of-41 passes for 291 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. Here, he'll likely do a whole lot more to match Bulldogs QB Will Rogers, who just tossed six touchdown passes in last week's rout of Bowling Green. Of course public sentiment is still rather low on the Bulldogs after their nationally-televised 31-16 loss to LSU two weeks ago. While the second half against the Tigers didn't go Mississippi State's way, I've been impressed by its other 14 quarters of football played so far this season. While last week's win over Bowling Green was expected, the fact that the Bulldogs put up 31 first half points and ultimately scored offensive touchdowns in all four quarters was encouraging and the perfect springboard heading into this critical matchup. Take Mississippi State (8*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Army minus the points over Georgia State at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Poor tackling has been Georgia State's calling card on the way to an 0-4 record this seaosn. That doesn't bode well as the Panthers head to West Point to take on Army and its triple-option offense on Saturday. In last week's loss against Coastal Carolina, Georgia State allowed three touchdowns in the game's first 14 minutes, including two in the first five minutes on its way to a 41-24 loss. Even when the Chanticleers were simply trying to pick up a few first downs and run out the clock late, the Panthers gave up another touchdown (we unfortunately lost the 'under' as a result). The week previous, Georgia State allowed five offensive touchdowns in a 42-41 loss to Charlotte. Meanwhile, the Panthers offense has looked good for stretches but hasn't shown nearly enough consistency. Case in point, back in Week 2, when they had a shot at upsetting North Carolina, they went scoreless over the game's final 17 minutes, allowing a pair of Tar Heels touchdowns to lose 35-28. They scored a pair of first half touchdowns against Coastal Carolina last week but their offense was held out of the end zone for the entire second half. Army entered the season with sky-high hopes but things haven't gone as planned as it is off to a 1-2 start. With that said, the Black Knights did finally get loose for a 49-10 rout of a quality FCS opponent in Villanova last week. In that game, we saw Army score three touchdowns in a 21-minute stretch in the first half, before it added three more offensive touchdowns in the second half. There was no shame in Army's two losses this season as they came at the hands of aforementioned Coastal Carolina and UTSA - two teams that will more than likely be Bowl-bound. In those two games, the Black Knights still managed to put up a combined 66 points. Note that these two teams met last season and the result was no contest as Army won by a 43-10 score. The talent gap might just be wider this year but it's certainly not reflected by the pointspread. Take Army (10*).

My selection is on Kentucky plus the points over Ole Miss at 12 noon et on Saturday.

This is one of the better games on Saturday's college football slate and I really like the way it sets up for the underdog Wildcats. Kentucky enters this game with an identical 4-0 record to that of Ole Miss. While it hasn't been quite as flashy, the Wildcats offense has delivered nonetheless and I expect it to again in this spot. While Kentucky won by 'only' eight points as a near four touchdown favorite against Northern Illinois last week, I didn't come away overly concerned as I'm actually higher than most on the Huskies this year. Kentucky allowed a pair of first half touchdowns in that game but then held the Huskies out of the end zone until the game's final three minutes, when it was already comfortably in front by 14 points. Going back three games, the Wildcats went on the road and impressively defeated Florida by a 26-16 score (we won with the 'under' in that game). They didn't give up a touchdown until the final six minutes of the first half in that contest and after that didn't allow another offensive score of any kind the rest of the way. Then there's the Kentucky offense. It scored a touchdown in all four quarters in last week's win over NIU. Two games back the Wildcats scored four offensive touchdowns in a 21-minute stretch in the first half against then-undefeated FCS squad Youngstown State. Ole Miss rushed out to five first half touchdowns last week against Tulsa. It's worth noting, however, that the Rebels didn't score another point from there, despite Tulsa closing the gap to a couple of scores less than five minutes into the third quarter. We've seen inconsistent stretches like that from the Rebels at times this season, partially due to game script but also in part as a result of QB Jaxson Dart still figuring things out. He's completed just 51-of-82 passes, throwing for 200+ yards only once while tossing five touchdowns to go along with two interceptions. This will clearly be his toughest test to date. Last year's matchup was a barn-burner with Ole Miss prevailing by a 42-41 score. I expect this one to go down to the wire as well. Take Kentucky (8*).

Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Texas Tech plus the points over Kansas State at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Kansas State is coming off a massive upset win over Oklahoma last week but I expect the Wildcats to have their hands full with Texas Tech as they return to Manhattan this Saturday. In that victory, the Wildcats scored three touchdowns in the game's first 24 minutes but then stalled until QB Adrian Martinez put the team on his back with a pair of fourth quarter touchdown runs. By all accounts, it was a career game for Martinez, the type of performance that he'll have a difficult time replicating this week. Lost in the victory was the fact that the Kansas State defense yielded two touchdowns in around five minutes on two different occasions in that contest. Keep in mind, this is a Wildcats squad that is just one game removed from losing outright by a 17-10 score at home against Tulane. Yes, there was also a 40-12 rout of Missouri earlier in the season but even in that game we saw the Wildcats offense stall for an extended stretch, held out of the end zone from 13 minutes remaining in the second quarter until 13 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. Texas Tech picked up a much-needed rebound victory over Texas last Saturday, successfully bouncing back from a 27-14 loss on the road against a terrific N.C. State team the week previous. It's worth noting that the Red Raiders allowed just two offensive touchdowns in that loss to the Wolfpack. Earlier, in a wild 33-30 overtime win over Houston, Texas Tech allowed only one offensive touchdown in regulation time and that didn't come until nearly two minutes into the third quarter. Of course, the Red Raiders offense is fine. They scored touchdowns in all four quarters against a pretty good Texas defense last week. QB Donovan Smith got a little turnover-happy in those aforementioned games against Houston and N.C. State but has already thrown for 1,100+ yards and nine touchdowns while also adding three rushing scores. Take Texas Tech (10*).

Pac-12 Game of the Year. My selection is on UCLA plus the points over Washington at 10:30 pm et on Friday.

I really like the way this one sets up for UCLA as it hosts undefeated Washington on Friday night. The Huskies are 4-0 but who have they really beaten of substance? The easy answer is Michigan State and Stanford, representing their last two victories. I'm just not convinced either of those two teams are all that good, certainly not Stanford. Keep in mind this will be Washington's first road game of the season. UCLA is also 4-0 but had a big-time scare in an eventual 32-31 win over South Alabama two weeks ago that seems to be giving a lot of bettors' pause in this spot. Let's keep things in perspective - South Alabama is a quality team off to a 3-1 start. The Bruins got into a fight they probably didn't expect in that contest and ultimately prevailed, holding the Jaguars off the scoreboard for the entire fourth quarter in a come-from-behind win that they're probably now stronger because of. Last week, the Bruins rolled to a 45-17 win over Colorado. That margin could have probably been even wider in that contest were it not for a couple of defensive lapses at the end of the first half and fourth quarter. They were already ahead 21-3 when they allowed Colorado to run in a short touchdown in the final 20 seconds of the first half. UCLA didn't allow another score until the outcome as long decided, up 48-10 in the game's final three minutes. I'm more concerned about Washington's defense, which allowed three touchdowns in the game's final 34 minutes against a rather punchless Stanford attack last week. The Huskies got off to a tremendous start against Michigan State the week previous but went on to allow 28 points in the game's final 32 minutes with the final score of 39-28 far closer than they would have liked. Here, we'll note that UCLA is 23-7 ATS the last 30 times it has played at home after scoring 42+ points in its previous game, outscoring opponents by 17.7 points on average in that situation. Take UCLA (10*).

Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Boise State minus the points over San Diego State at 8 pm et on Friday.

San Diego State won 27-16 as a three-point home underdog in last year's matchup between these two teams. I look for Boise State to answer back on Friday night. It's not easy to get behind the Broncos right now. They're coming off a stunning 27-10 loss at UTEP last week and after that putrid offensive performance, fired offensive coordinator Tim Plough. There's no reason for Boise State to be as inconsistent offensively as it has been in the first month of the season. While San Diego State is always tough defensively, perhaps there's reason to believe Boise State can break through against the Aztecs here. San Diego State has actually struggled against any opponent with an offensive pulse this season, namely Arizona and Utah. In the opener against the Wildcats, the Aztecs allowed four touchdowns over a 22-minute stretch from the second to fourth quarter. It was a similar story against Utah as San Diego State yielded five touchdowns over a 23-minute stretch in the second and third quarters. The problem is, the Aztecs don't have the type of offense that can respond, at least not very quickly. As I did two weeks ago in my analysis of a play on Utah over San Diego State, I'm still questioning whether Virginia Tech transfer QB Braxton Burmeister is the right fit in this offense. In fact, it's becoming evident that he's not. Boise State has had its own issues offensively but the pieces are still in place to turn it around, and relieving Plough of his duties should provide a spark. The Broncos defense has been solid. Even in last week's setback, it didn't allow a touchdown until the final three minutes of the first half and then gave up only one offensive touchdown the rest of the way, that coming in the final five minutes of the fourth quarter. Boise State has actually given up just five offensive touchdowns over its last 14 quarters of action (after a rough season-opening first half against Oregon State). All is not lost as the Broncos get four of their next five games at home but it has to start with a victory here. Note that Boise State checks in a long-term 41-24 ATS when coming off two ATS losses in its last three games, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 18.2 points in that situation. Take Boise State (10*).

AAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Tulane and Houston at 7 pm et on Friday.

The lookahead total for this game was much higher than the number we're currently dealing with and rightfully so. I still feel there's considerable value backing the 'under' on Friday night in Houston. Tulane is off to an impressive 3-1 start but it will be in a foul mood after suffering a 27-24 defeat at home against Southern Miss last Saturday. The Green Wave offense got off to a predictably hot start thanks to a schedule that saw it open against UMass and FCS squad Alcorn State. Tulane impressed in a 17-10 road win against Kansas State but that upset victory was obviously fuelled by its defense as it held the Wildcats out of the end zone until the final three minutes of the first half and then didn't give up another touchdown the rest of the way. Even in the losing effort against Southern Miss last Saturday, the Green Wave allowed only two offensive touchdowns (the Eagles also returned an interception for a touchdown). While Houston has been involved in some high-scoring games, its offense hasn't been the juggernaut that most were expecting. The Cougars barely eked out a 34-27 win over Rice last Saturday. In that contest they scored a touchdown in the final seconds of the first quarter but then didn't reach the end zone again until early in the third quarter. They only prevailed thanks to a fumble return for a touchdown in the final four minutes of the fourth quarter. Save for a 38-30 loss against Kansas, the Houston defense has played well. It's worth noting that the Cougars jumped ahead 14-0 early in that game against the Jayhawks and probably figured they would cruise the rest of the way. In a road date against Texas Tech in Week 2, Houston allowed a pair of second quarter touchdowns but that was it until overtime (that game totalled 63 points but included 23 points in two overtime sessions). The Cougars season-opener against UTSA needed three overtimes to decide. That game didn't feature any scoring until the second quarter and totalled only 48 points in regulation time. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on BYU minus the points over Utah State at 8 pm et on Thursday.

Utah State might not be the worst defensive team in the country but it's in the conversation. Looking back, all of the signs were there in the Aggies 31-20 Week 0 victory over Connecticut. The Huskies have one of the most punchless offenses in the nation yet they managed to score 20 points, including two first quarter touchdowns in Utah State's season and home-opener. From there we saw an expected rout at the hands of Alabama before the Aggies returned home for what should have been a big bounce-back performance against FCS squad Weber State. Instead, Utah State lost 35-7. Last Saturday, the Aggies gave up three touchdowns in the game's first 19 minutes on their way to a 34-24 defeat. You get the picture. BYU figures to take advantage. The Cougars weren't their sharpest offensively but still scored four touchdowns in the first three quarters on their way to a 38-24 win over a 'tough out' in the Wyoming Cowboys last Saturday (we won with Wyoming in its outright upset of Air Force a week earlier). BYU allowed a touchdown just under two minutes into the second quarter in that contest but then held the Cowboys out of the end zone until the fourth quarter. Note that earlier this season we saw the Cougars hold a potent Baylor offense out of the end zone until less than two minutes remaining in the first half, eventually winning that game by a 26-20 score in double-overtime. There was also a Week 1 performance where BYU didn't give up any points until South Florida found the end zone with seconds remaining in the first half - after it had fallen behind 38-0. Yes, there was a blowout loss at Oregon but that was a tough spot for BYU after starting 2-0 and coming off that big win over Baylor (note that the Ducks have scored 155 points over their last three games). BYU went on the road and won 34-20 against a much stronger Utah State squad last year - an Aggies team that essentially caught lightning in a bottle. With QB Logan Bonner mired in an awful stretch it stands to reason that Utah State could make a change at quarterback here. I'm just not convinced anyone is going to turn things around on the road on a short week against a quality opponent like BYU. Take BYU (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Connecticut and N.C. State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

We won with the 'over' in Connecticut's 59-0 drubbing at the hands of Michigan in the Big House last Saturday. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as the Huskies travel to Raleigh to face N.C. State. UConn's only hope of staying even remotely competitive in this game is by running the football with the backfield tandem of Victor Rosa and Nathan Carter in an effort to effectively shorten the game. It couldn't gain any sort of traction in that department against Michigan - in fact, QB Zion Turner was the team's leading rusher in that contest with just 42 yards. Still, the game reached 'only' 49 points as the Huskies were shut out. N.C. State exploded offensively against an overmatched FCS opponent in Charleston Southern two weeks ago but aside from that, hasn't been nearly as explosive as Michigan, for example. Last week against Texas Tech, N.C. State didn't reach the end zone until nearly five minutes into the second quarter and from there scored just one more offensive touchdown. On the flip side, the Wolfpack held a powerful Texas Tech offense out of the end zone until the final minute of the first half. This is a 'win and move on' type of spot for N.C. State as it opens its ACC schedule with a tough road date against Clemson next Saturday. While Michigan was able to topple the total all on its own last Saturday, I don't expect the Wolfpack to do the same here. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on South Carolina minus the points over Charlotte at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

This is a brutal spot for Charlotte off a draining 42-41 win over Georgia State (a Georgia State squad that looked absolutely terrible in a similar spot, albeit on a shorter week, against Coastal Carolina on Thursday) last Saturday. The 49ers don't play a lick of defense, having been lit up for 41+ points in all four games to date this season and now make the trip to face a South Carolina squad that will be looking to dummy someone after dropping consecutive blowout decisions against powerful Arkansas and Georgia squads. Keep in mind, these two teams have a common opponent this season as the Gamecocks boat-raced Georgia State by a 35-14 score back in Week 1 while the 49ers needed everything they had in the tank to prevail by a single point last week. South Carolina has had a major problem stopping the run this season but Charlotte wouldn't seem to pose a serious threat in that regard. The 49ers did run for 130+ yards back in Week 1 against FCS squad William & Mary but they needed 37 attempts to get there. This one gets away from the visiting Niners. Take South Carolina (8*).

My selection is on Middle Tennessee State plus the points over Miami at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

I think this is a sneaky-tough spot for Miami as it returns home licking its wounds following a 17-9 loss against Texas A&M to host Middle Tennessee State. The Blue Raiders season got start on the wrong foot as they were routed 44-7 on the road against first-year FBS upstart James Madison. MTSU's offense couldn't stay on the field, going three-and-out on its first five drives and its young defense quickly wore down as a result, with the floodgates opening early. We've seen both units settle down over the last two games as the Blue Raiders delivered consecutive lopsided wins over Colorado State and FCS squad Tennessee State. I like some of the pieces MTSU has in place offensively with QB Chase Cunningham back healthy, not to mention a solid wide receiving corps and what appears to be a capable running back in Frank Peasant. Defensively, there are holes to fill but the Blue Raiders can ratchet up the pressure up front and I'm not convinced that Miami can take advantage of its weaknesses in the secondary. MTSU had a miserable time containing James Madison dual-threat QB Todd Centeio but it will deal with a true pocket-passer in Tyler Van Dyke this week. Albeit in a tough matchup against an angry Texas A&M defense, Van Dyke didn't look the same without his early season go-to guy WR Xavier Restrepo last week. Restrepo is sidelined indefinitely with a foot injury. Off the emotional primetime loss to A&M and with ACC play getting rolling with a date against currently undefeated North Carolina next week, I see this as a 'win and move on' type of spot for the Hurricanes as they look to effectively shorten the game and avoid any more key injuries. Take Middle Tennessee State (8*).

My selection is on Temple minus the points over UMass at 2 pm et on Saturday.

We won with the 'under' in Temple's ugly 16-14 home loss against Rutgers last Saturday. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and lay the points with the Owls as they stay home for a winnable matchup against UMass. Temple is 1-2 to start the season but can take some positives away from its last two games, particularly on the defensive side of the football. Over their last five quarters of football, the Owls have yielded just one offensive touchdown, that coming early in last week's game against Rutgers. Meanwhile, we've at least seen the Owls show some signs of consistency on offense with QB E.J. Warner taking over. He's completed 33-of-50 passes for 388 yards, three touchdowns and just one interception since relieving an injured (and ineffective) D'Wan Mathis. Believe it or not, this is a smash spot for the Temple offense against a UMass squad that has given up points at will against anyone with a pulse this season. Back in Week 1, the Minutemen allowed three touchdowns in the game's first 25 minutes against a mediocre Tulane offense. They were even worse in their next game, yielding six touchdowns in the first 35 minutes against Toledo. They earned a reprieve against FCS squad Stony Brook last week and performed admirably but I expect them to come back to Earth again here, even against a struggling Temple offense. This is obviously a key spot for Temple as it will play its next two games on the road against Memphis and UCF before returning home for no gimme against Tulsa. While a Bowl appearance probably isn't in the cards this year, the Owls can at least keep hope alive with a victory this week. Given the state of the UMass offense - note that last week the Minutemen scored a touchdown in the game's first five minutes against Stony Brook but their offense never reached the end zone again the rest of the way. Prior to that they managed only two offensive touchdowns in their first two games - I'm confident Temple can score enough offensively and let its defense take care of the rest in what should be a lopsided, albeit likely low-scoring result. Take Temple (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Central Michigan and Penn State at 12 noon et on Saturday.

We missed with the 'under' in Central Michigan's wild season-opening 58-44 loss at Oklahoma State but I did figure at that time that we would go back to the well with another 'under' play involving the Chippewas at some point. This looks like the right spot as the Chips head back on the road to face an undefeated Penn State squad that is coming off a key blowout win at Auburn last week. It generally takes two teams to topple a total in this range and I'm not convinced the Chips will do their part in this spot. Central Michigan did roll to a 41-0 win over FCS squad Bucknell last week but it's worth noting that it didn't reach the end zone until there were less than five minutes remaining in the first half in that game. They 'only' led 20-0 through three quarters before Bucknell eventually wore down defensively. I certainly don't expect CMU to wear down an elite Penn State defense here. Note that two games back, CMU took 10 minutes to score a touchdown against South Alabama and then didn't reach the end zone again until more than six minutes into the third quarter. The Chips will simply be looking to possess the football for extended stretches and effectively shorten this game to give themselves any sort of chance after that ugly loss against a similarly tough opponent, Oklahoma State, earlier this month. Penn State has been better than advertised offensively through three games although I do think last week's 41-12 result was a little deceiving (we missed with the 'under' in that game). The Nittany Lions scored just two first half touchdowns in that game, including one less than two minutes before halftime. It was only in the second half where Auburn had a number of defensive miscues and lacked concentration and execution in yielding 27 Nittany Lions points. Here, I expect to see Penn State 'manage' this game (note that in a previous game against another MAC opponent, Ohio, the Nittany Lions ceased scoring from a minute or so into the fourth quarter on in a 46-10 victory). Penn State's Big Ten schedule picks back up again next week and I'm sure it would like to make this tune-up contest as uneventful as possible. Take the under (8*).

MAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo plus the points over Eastern Michigan at 12 noon et on Saturday.

We won with Buffalo plus the points in its tough road loss against Coastal Carolina last Saturday as it fell to 0-3 on the season. The Bulls have certainly faced a tough early schedule with games against Maryland and aforementioned CCU on the road and Holy Cross, a top FCS squad, at home. Here, I look for the Bulls to give Eastern Michigan all it can handle, noting that the Eagles are coming off their biggest victory in years, 30-21 on the road against Arizona State last Saturday (we cashed our free play on the 'under' in that game). EMU pulled off that stunning upset victory thanks to 259 rushing yards from RB Samson Evans. I'm chalking that up as an outlier performance as Evans had been held to just 108 yards on 25 carries in the first two games this season. The strength of the Bulls defense is at the linebacker position and I'm confident they can keep Evans under wraps on Saturday. Note that EMU lost QB Taylor Powell to a shoulder injury in last Saturday's win. He's questionable to play this week. If he can't go, it will be Austin Smith under center. He's more of a dual-threat than Powell but I believe Buffalo matches up better against that type of quarterback with their athleticism on defense. Bulls QB Cole Snyder has been under duress for much of the season so far but has held up relatively well. Note that EMU hasn't shown any semblance of a pass rush with just one sack through three games. In a game that I feel will be played closer to the vest than expected (I feel the posted total has been set too high as well), I'll grab all the points I can get with the underdog Bulls. Take Buffalo (10*).

Big Ten Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Maryland and Michigan at 12 noon et on Saturday.

We won with the 'over' in Michigan's 59-0 rout of an overmatched Connecticut squad last Saturday. Of course, we needed all 59 points from the Wolverines to get there. I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as Michigan gets its first true test of the season against Maryland on Saturday at the Big House. Maryland is off to a 3-0 start following last week's fourth quarter rally against a quality SMU squad. The Terps offense has been humming along, scoring 31, 56 and 34 points through its first three games. We saw a similar story unfold last year with Maryland running up the score against the opponents it should but struggling when the competition stiffened up. Michigan may not have the flashy defense of 2021 with Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo having moved on to the NFL, but there's a chance this Wolverines 'D' could be even better. While they've yet to face a true test, I've come away impressed by the way they've completely stifled their first three opponents. In fact they've yet to allow a single first half point with the only two opponents that managed to score on them doing so long after the outcome was already decided. Offensively, the Wolverines, like the Terps, have benefited from facing three relatively weak defensive opponents. I can't help but feel that this Michigan offense, under the guidance of first-year starting QB J.J. McCarthy, is built to methodically drive down the field and wear down opposing defenses with a steady mix of run and pass rather than come up with a ton of splash plays. Note that the Terps didn't allow a touchdown until the first minute of the second quarter against a terrific SMU offense last week. After giving up a touchdown with less than seven minutes remaining in the third quarter, putting it behind 27-20, Maryland posted a shutout the rest of the way, scoring a pair of touchdowns of its own to secure the 34-27 victory over the Mustangs. Prior to that, the Terps had allowed four touchdowns through their first two games although you can take three of those with a grain of salt as they came in a 'defense-optional' rout of Charlotte, which plays as loose as any team in FBS. Michigan crushed Maryland by a 59-18 score in last year's matchup (note that game saw a closing total of 58 so we're dealing with a considerable adjustment here) so you can be sure the Terps gameplan here will involve possessing the football for extended stretches in an effort to effectively shorten the game and limit Michigan's opportunities on offense. On the flip side, I think we'll see Maryland play it fairly safe defensively, allowing Michigan to churn out long scoring drives that ultimately eat the clock and help our cause with the 'under'. Take the under (10*).

Mountain West Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Air Force minus the points over Nevada at 8 pm et on Friday.

We won fading Air Force last Friday night as the Falcons lost outright as a double-digit favorite in a tough setting in Laramie, Wyoming. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back Air Force (we won with the Falcons just two games back against Colorado) as it returns to Colorado Springs to host a disjointed Nevada squad. The Wolf Pack are an even 2-2 to start the season but their outlook is by no means promising. We won with the 'under' in their season-opening 23-12 win on the road against a bad New Mexico State squad in Week 0 but even in that victory there was reason for concern. Nevada didn't score until nearly five minutes into the second quarter and after reaching the end zone with less than a minute remaining in the first half, it failed to record another touchdown in the game's final 30 minutes. After routing a weak Texas State squad the next week, the Wolf Pack got absolutely throttled by FCS squad Incarnate Word 55-41. That final score was actually flattering for the Wolf Pack as Incarnate Word led 55-27 before allowing a couple of late scores. Shane Illingworth took over at quarterback against Iowa last Saturday and proceeded to complete just 14-of-28 passes for 82 yards. Without a dominant offensive line or ground attack, there's just little for this Wolf Pack offense to hang its hat on nearly a month into the season. Defensively, Nevada allowed a punchless Iowa attack to score a pair of first quarter touchdowns last week and again, we learned a lot about this unit in that game against Incarnate Word (the Cardinals scored four offensive touchdowns in the game's first 36 minutes). Air Force will obviously be in a foul mood off last week's defeat and the Falcons are well-positioned to bounce back here at home where they're 2-0 on the campaign, registering 48-17 and 41-10 victories. The last time we saw them here they held Colorado off the scoreboard until just over four minutes into the second quarter and then didn't allow another touchdown the rest of the way. Credit Wyoming's defense for bottling up the Falcons option-based offense last week but I don't expect Nevada to do the same, noting that AFA scored 41 points in a wild victory over the Wolf Pack last November. Take Air Force (10*).

Sun Belt Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Coastal Carolina and Georgia State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

Both of these teams are coming off wild games last Saturday with Coastal Carolina recording a 38-26 victory over Buffalo (we won with Buffalo plus the points) and Georgia State falling by a 42-41 score against Charlotte. Last year we saw a closing total of 53 points for this same matchup but the game ended up reaching a whopping 82 points in a Georgia State upset victory. So here we're dealing with a considerably higher total - I believe it will prove to be too high. I can't imagine either team is all that interested in getting involved in another track meet here, playing on a short week off such draining contests just five days previous. Note that while Coastal Carolina did allow 26 points against Buffalo, it actually held the Bulls out of the end zone until the final minute of the first half and didn't give up another touchdown until there were less than six minutes left in the fourth quarter. The final score in that contest was ultimately inflated by a Buffalo defensive breakdown with just over three minutes remaining as Coastal Carolina was just trying to get a couple of first downs and burn out the clock (the Chanticleers scored a 59-yard touchdown). Prior to that contest, Coastal Carolina held FCS squad Gardner-Webb out of the end zone for the first 27 minutes and in its season-opener limited a tough Army offense to 28 points in a game where a few defensive breakdowns (to be expected facing Army's triple-option in Week 1) led to three long touchdowns. The Chanticleers enter this game on a short week with a trio of running backs banged-up. To effectively shorten this game would certainly work in their favor knowing just how explosive the Georgia State offense can be. The Panthers are still winless through three games but they've been competitive in their last two contests against North Carolina and Charlotte. After jumping ahead early in last week's game against Charlotte, the Panthers had a fumble returned for a touchdown which really turned the tide in the game, which ultimately turned into a shootout (to be expected against the 49ers' explosive offense and sieve-like defense). Two games back, the Georgia State offense couldn't stay on the field in the first half, leaving the defense gassed against a high-octane North Carolina offense. The Panthers did go a 23-minute stretch without allowing a touchdown in that contest. In their season-opener, they limited South Carolina to only two offensive touchdowns in a game that was scoreless until the second minute of the second quarter. My point being, the Panthers defense is better than it has showed on the scoreboard through three games and will certainly be amped up to face former teammate, WR Sam Pinckney who transferred to Coastal Carolina after last season. Keep in mind, this is an experienced Panthers defense (with seven returning starters) that held six of eight Sun Belt Conference opponents to 21 points or less last season. Take the under (10*).

Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah minus the points over San Diego State at 10 pm et on Saturday.

After dropping a tough 29-26 decision against Florida at The Swamp back in Week 1, Utah needed a big victory to feel good about itself again last Saturday and it delivered just that to the tune of a 73-7 rout of FCS squad Southern Utah. Now comes a tougher matchup against San Diego State but I’m confident the Utes will be up to the challenge. Utah left no doubt in last week’s contest, scoring five offensive touchdowns (and adding a field goal) in a 14-minute span in the second quarter. I liked the way the Utes continued to pour it on late in that game, adding three more touchdowns in the final 23 minutes, even with the outcome having long been decided. There were certainly some signs of rust offensively, particularly early on against Florida but that has clearly been taken care of. San Diego State opened with a 38-20 drubbing at the hands of Arizona before rebounding with a 38-7 win over Idaho State last week. Note that it took the Aztecs nearly 10 minutes before they scored their first offensive touchdown in that win over Idaho State and that came on the sort of defensive breakdown you just won’t see from Utah. There was also a stretch where the Aztecs were held out of the end zone for 35 minutes in that contest - not encouraging considering that was against the likes of FCS squad Idaho State. The jury is still out as to whether former Virginia Tech standout QB Braxton Burmeister is the right fit in this offense. San Diego State always brings a solid defense to the table but here it will be dealing with its toughest offensive opponent to date, and we’ll note that it yielded an offensive touchdown in all four quarters in its season-opener against Arizona prior to last week’s victory. Take Utah (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Texas A&M at 9 pm et on Saturday.

NOTE: Late in the week the Aggie announced that Max Johnson would get the start at quarterback in place of Haynes King. More of a pocket-passer capable of elevating his receivers, I don't mind the move and will stick with the play on the 'over'.

This total has taken a nosedive since opening, rightfully so in the eyes of most after Texas A&M was held to just 14 points in an upset loss against Appalachian State last Saturday. I'm confident we'll see the Aggies offense bounce back in a high-profile matchup with 2-0 Miami this week. We won with the 'under' in the Hurricanes 30-7 rout of Southern Miss in searing southern Florida heat last Saturday. Miami feasted on a one-dimensional Golden Eagles offense on that day. While the Canes did lose standout WR Xavier Restrepo in that victory, I'm confident others can step up in his absence on Saturday. I think it's important not to write off teams after one bad performance and that's the case with A&M here, particularly on offense. QB Haynes King was awful last week but keep in mind he's just one game removed from passing for 364 yards and three touchdowns in his season debut. Highly-touted RB Devon Achane was held in check by Appalachian State last week as well. Again, here I'm anticipating a strong bounce-back performance from the electric RB who did return a kick for a touchdown in last week's defeat. Take the over (8*).

Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Mississippi State and LSU at 6 pm et on Saturday.

We missed with the 'over' in Mississippi State's rout of Arizona last Saturday. We probably deserved a better fate but the scoring fizzled after a 22-point first quarter and the game ultimately finished just a shade 'under' the total. I expect a different story to unfold here. The Bulldogs are off to a roaring start offensively and that's to be expected as they have all of the pieces in place and a head coach that knows how to get the most out of those pieces in Mike Leach. I like the way Mississippi State has continued to pour it on late in its first two games, even with the outcome already all but decided. The Bulldogs have scored four fourth quarter touchdowns. All most can think about when it comes to LSU is that disappointing season-opening 24-23 loss to Florida State. Few were paying atttention but the Tigers absolutely exploded offensively last week against FCS squad Southern, putting up 37 points before the game was even a quarter old. Incredibly, LSU has now scored a whopping 11 offensive touchdowns over essentially the last five quarters of football (the Tigers scored with eight seconds remaining in the third quarter of their season-opener against Florida State). Last week's matchup between these two teams totalled 53 points and that's where this total sits at the time of writing. I believe it will prove too low. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on Houston minus the points over Kansas at 4 pm et on Saturday.

Kansas rolls into this showdown with Houston sporting a perfect 2-0 record off last week's stunning overtime win on the road against West Virginia. I expect the Jayhawks to have their hands full against the 1-1 Houston Cougars on Saturday though. Kansas actually fell behind 14-0 after the first quarter against West Virginia last week and I think the Mountaineers believed it was going to be a cakewalk at that point. The Jayhawks would go on to yield another touchdown early in the second quarter - they allowed three touchdowns before the game was even 17 minutes old. From there, Kansas' offense picked up the pace and was a thorn in the Mountaineers side all game long. Of course West Virginia's defense might just be awful given the way it has performed so far this season. It's a different story with Houston. The Cougars are battle-tested after defeating an excellent UTSA squad on the road in overtime in Week 1 and then dropping a tough overtime decision on the road against Texas Tech last week. There were positives to take away from both games. Of course the offense will be fine. The defense, however, despite allowing 68 points, has fared well. The Cougars didn't allow an explosive UTSA offense to score until just shy of two minutes into the second quarter in Week 1. After allowing a Roadrunners touchdown with around four minutes left in the third quarter, Houston held them out of the end zone for the rest of regulation time (and the first overtime). Last week, the Cougars held the Red Raiders out of the end zone until nearly five minutes into the second quarter. Texas Tech had a late touchdown in the final minute of the first half but from there didn't reach the end zone again until the first overtime. You get the picture. I expect Kansas to be taken out of its element in this one. Houston is familiar with facing dual-threat quarterbacks already this season and I don't expect it to be blindsided by Kansas QB Jalon Daniels. Take Houston (8*).

My selection is on Wisconsin minus the points over New Mexico State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

We successfully faded Wisconsin in its outright loss to Washington State last Saturday. That result didn’t actually come as nearly as big of a surprise to us as it did to most. Here, the Badgers have an ideal ‘get right’ matchup against lowly New Mexico State and I won’t hesitate to switch gears and lay the points. New Mexico State is 0-3 to start the season, scoring just 25 points in those three contests. QB Diego Pavia has been the Aggies leading rusher in all three games which is concerning when you consider he’s topped out at 69 rushing yards - that coming in last week’s loss to UTEP. I question whether the Aggies can do enough offensively to stay on the field and give their defense a break against Wisconsin, which should absolutely own the battle in the trenches. In a similar matchup at Minnesota two games back, New Mexico State allowed 485 total yards including just shy of 300 on the ground in a 38-0 loss. Look for the Badgers backfield tandem of Allen and Mellusi to absolutely go off and pace the lopsided victory on Saturday. Take Wisconsin (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Penn State and Auburn at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

I'll keep my analysis short with this being a late addition to Saturday's card. Last year's meeting between these two teams totalled exactly 48 points, which just happens to be the total being offered at most books this time around. Penn State 'only' scored 28 points in that game despite completing 29-of-33 passes for over 300 yards. Auburn 'only' scored 20 points despite rushing for just shy of 200 yards. Here, I look for the defenses to step up. Penn State has shredded through a pair of subpar defensive opponents in Purdue and Ohio to open the season, uncharacteristically lighting up the scoreboard for 81 points through two games. Auburn opened the season with a 42-point outburst against FCS opponent Mercer but then only managed 24 points in a sleepy win over San Jose State last week. While I do think we see both offenses move the chains consistently - I think ending drives with touchdowns could prove difficult here. Penn State's secondary bottles up the Auburn pass-catchers and the Tigers get to Nittany Lions QB Sean Clifford early and often. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Rutgers and Temple at 2 pm et on Saturday.

Last year, we hit one of our biggest plays of the season on Rutgers minus the points against Temple in an eventual 61-14 rout. I won’t hesitate to switch gears and back the ‘under’ in this year’s rematch at Lincoln Financial Field. Rutgers blew the doors off FCS squad Wagner last week, scoring 66 points in a 59-point victory. Let’s not get too carried away by that result, however. The Scarlet Knights are just one game removed from scoring just 22 points in a narrow win over Boston College in their season-opener. There are still question marks on the offensive line and at quarterback, where Evan Simon and Gavin Wimsatt have split time under center (I’m rarely a fan of the time share at quarterbackat this level). Temple dropped its opener by a 30-0 score at Duke but rebounded for a 30-14 win over FCS squad Lafayette last Saturday. Note that after scoring a touchdown in the game’s first five minutes against Lafayette, the Owls didn’t reach the end zone again until the final three minutes of the first half. They were held off the scoreboard entirely in the third quarter when the result of the game was still hanging in the balance, up by a 21-14 score. I won’t knock the Temple defense too much for that ugly loss at Duke in Week 1. To its credit it did hold the Blue Devils out of the end zone over the game’s final 37 minutes and got very little help from its offense in that one. Here, I’m confident the Owls offense can move the football just enough to keep their defense fresh and ultimately limit the scoring in this contest. Take the under (8*).