Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04-21-24 | Red Sox v. Pirates -140 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -140 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh over Boston at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. The Red Sox have proven to be road warriors in the early going this season but I look for them to get tripped up in the finale of their series in Pittsburgh on Sunday afternoon. Josh Winckowski will get the start for Boston. He has logged 11 2/3 innings in relief this season, posting an ugly 2.06 WHIP. Keep in mind, for his career he has recorded a 1.54 WHIP so it's not like there's a lot of positive regression to be expected. Veteran left-hander Martin Perez had a terrific Spring for the Pirates and has picked up right where he left off in the regular season, posting a 3.43 FIP and 1.26 WHIP in four starts. He did labor through his most recent outing against the red hot Mets but I'm confident we'll see him bounce back here. Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
|||||||
04-20-24 | Rangers +140 v. Braves | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Saturday. I like the Rangers to bounce back on Saturday after they were crushed by the Braves in the opener of this series last night. Nathan Eovaldi is in line for a bounce back performance of his own after he allowed two home runs and five earned runs in an 8-5 loss against the Astros last time out. Through his first three starts this season Eovaldi had given up just three earned runs in 18 2/3 innings. Charlie Morton will counter for Atlanta. He can certainly be had right now as he has been tagged for 10 earned runs over his last two starts spanning just 11 2/3 innings. The bullpens are closer to a wash than you might think. The Braves 'pen entered this series sporting an ERA well north of five and a 1.50 WHIP at home this season. Take Texas (8*). |
|||||||
04-19-24 | Rays +140 v. Yankees | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. I think some bettors may have Rays 'opener' Tyler Alexander confused with Angels journeyman Tyler Anderson as this price seems a little out of whack. Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt has had an up and down start to the campaign having posted a solid 3.54 FIP but a lofty 1.64 WHIP through three outings. Keep in mind, you would have to go back eight Schmidt starts to find the last time he made it through six innings. The Rays have long held their own against the Yankees, going 16-16 (+0.7 net games) in this series over the last three seasons. We'll back them at a considerable underdog price on Friday. Take Tampa Bay (8*). |
|||||||
04-19-24 | White Sox +148 v. Phillies | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Philadelphia at 6:40 pm et on Friday. The Rockies let the Phillies off the hook two nights ago and Philadelphia came away with a series sweep. I look for the White Sox to bring an end to the Phillies winning streak on Friday, however, as they send impressive rookie Garrett Crochet to the hill against Tigers castaway Spencer Turnbull. The White Sox are off to a tough start to the season, as was expected. Few will be expecting much out of them in this series against the red hot Phillies but that's precisely why I see them as offering value. Crochet is undoubtedly the better starting pitcher in this matchup and I still feel the Philadelphia bullpen can be had - as we saw against Colorado when it nearly blew a 7-1 lead two nights ago. Take Chicago (8*). |
|||||||
04-18-24 | Diamondbacks +150 v. Giants | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Week. My selection is on Arizona over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Thursday. Going back to the start of last season, the Giants are 17-20 in Logan Webb's 37 starts. Yes, he's a quality pitcher but San Francisco doesn't always provide the support needed to secure victories in spite of his terrific pitching. That wasn't the story in his most recent outing as the Giants produced 11 runs in a rout of the Rays last Saturday. I expect a much different story to unfold on Thursday in San Francisco. Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson is coming off a masterful six-inning outing against the Cardinals in which he allowed just one earned run. Note that the D'Backs have come away victorious in each of his three career starts against the Giants including a pair of wins in San Francisco. While the bullpen matchup is virtually a wash over the last week, D'Backs relievers have posted better overall numbers this season. Take Arizona (10*). |
|||||||
04-18-24 | Rangers v. Tigers +100 | 9-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over Texas at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. This series has been about as back-and-forth and tightly-contested as it gets and we'll count on the Tigers to bounce back and earn a 2-2 split on Thursday afternoon in Detroit. Kenta Maeda will get the start for Detroit. His overall numbers through three starts this season are not good but he is trending in the right direction. Last time out Maeda held the Twins to just one earned run over six innings. In four career starts against Texas he has posted a 3.05 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Jack Leiter will get his first career big league start for the Rangers. While he could be effective in this game, it's unlikely we'll see him work deep into the contest. That leaves plenty of work for a Rangers bullpen that has struggled for the most part this season, logging a collective 4.96 ERA and 1.38 WHIP entering yesterday's game. In stark contrast, the Tigers 'pen entered yesterday's action with a 1.70 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Take Detroit (8*). |
|||||||
04-17-24 | Rockies +195 v. Phillies | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockies are certainly looking ahead to a return home at the conclusion of this series but I do look for them to avoid the sweep and pick up a rare road victory on Wednesday night in Philadelphia. Ryan Feltner was on the hill for the Rockies most recent win - last Friday in Toronto. He's as serviceable as it gets when it comes to the Colorado starting rotation. This play is more about fading Phillies starter Christopher Sanchez, who I don't feel belongs in this price range. I don't anticipate either starter working deep into this ball game but will take my chances fading the Phillies subpar bullpen which entered last night's action sporting a collective 6.31 ERA and 1.57 WHIP at home this season. Take Colorado (8*). |
|||||||
04-17-24 | Cardinals v. A's +145 | 3-6 | Win | 145 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over St. Louis at 3:35 pm et on Wednesday. Steven Matz was spotted a 4-0 lead in the first inning in his most recent start against Arizona. The Cardinals would go on to blow a 6-0 lead in that game before rallying for a 9-6 victory. All of that to say, Matz has been anything but dominant through his first three starts this season, striking out only eight while allowing 17 hits in 15 innings of work. It's been a different story for A's starter Paul Blackburn. He has yet to give up an earned run in 19 1/3 innings this season. Meanwhile, the A's bullpen has been terrific in the early going. We'll back the A's as they look to avoid the series sweep on Wednesday. Take Oakland (8*). |
|||||||
04-17-24 | Nationals +226 v. Dodgers | 2-0 | Win | 226 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over Los Angeles at 3:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Nationals were never going to have much of a shot at beating the Dodgers for a second straight game on Tuesday as they handed the ball to inning-eating batting practice pitcher Patrick Corbin. The Dodgers rolled in that contest. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday, however, as Washington sends Jake Irvin to the hill against Dodgers rookie Landon Knack. Irvin has been serviceable in the early going this season, logging a 4.01 FIP and 1.06 WHIP. Meanwhile, the Nats bullpen has held up well, recording a collective 3.26 ERA with six saves converted and three blown in the early going this season. With a win on Wednesday, Washington would wrap up a confidence-building 5-4 road trip. The Dodgers on the other hand are just 2-4 over their last six games, still setting into the long 162-game season. Take Washington (8*). |
|||||||
04-16-24 | Pirates +120 v. Mets | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over New York at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. Off last night's big rally, we'll fade the Mets on Tuesday as they send veteran Jose Quintana to the mound against Pirates rookie Jared Jones. The starting pitching matchup doesn't matter all that much to me in this spot but I will note that Jones has shown the ability to work relatively deep into ball games, lasting at least 5 2/3 innings in all three of his starts this season. Quintana on the other hand has topped out at 5 2/3 innings in his first three outings this year. The Pirates bullpen figures to be in better shape here as the Mets come off consecutive tightly-contested affairs (and have nearly doubled the Pirates bullpen innings pitched over the last week). Take Pittsburgh (8*). |
|||||||
04-16-24 | Rockies +210 v. Phillies | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado over Philadelphia at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. I don't think the Phillies have any business being priced in this range with Ranger Suarez starting on Tuesday. The Rockies were right there with the Phils last night despite a no-show from their offense, ultimately dropping a 2-1 decision in extra innings. They'll hand the ball to Austin Gomber on Tuesday and while he's a prototypical back-of-the-rotation starter, the fact is he's been on the hill for two victories in his first three starts, once again illustrating that starting pitching matchups aren't the end-all and be-all when it comes to baseball handicapping. The price is right to take a flyer on the Rockies as they look to snap a three-game skid. Take Colorado (8*). |
|||||||
04-15-24 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks -136 | 3-2 | Loss | -136 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Chicago at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The Diamondbacks come into this series feeling pretty good about themselves after posting four wins in their last five games. We'll back them here and fade the Cubs who are coming off a series win in Seattle including a 3-2 victory yesterday. Rookie Ben Brown will get his second start for the Cubs. He impressed in his first, allowing just three hits over 4 2/3 shutout innings against the Padres. Control has been an issue for Brown in the minors and I suspect the D'Backs will stay patient against him on Monday, ultimately leading to a relatively short outing. Merrill Kelly has been the picture of consistency for Arizona. He rarely gets blown up and when he does it usually happens on the road, not at home. Going back to last season, Kelly has lasted at least six innings in each of his last four starts. Take Arizona (8*). |
|||||||
04-15-24 | Rangers v. Tigers +110 | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over Texas at 6:40 pm et on Monday. I think the Rangers chasers will be out in full effect for this game as a short favorite after they dropped the final two contests of their weekend series in Houston. Instead we'll back the Tigers as they look to keep their terrific start going and own a starting pitching edge with Reese Olson going up against call-up Michael Lorenzen. Lorenzen is only making this start because of an injury to Cody Bradford. You may remember Lorenzen from his no-hitter last season but he faded after that and doesn't have the skills to succeed as a starter at the big league level. Olson showed positive flashes last season even if his overall numbers didn't impress. He was solid in his 2024 debut before getting roughed up by the Pirates in his most recent start. Both of his previous outings came on the road. I look for him to benefit from making his third start here at hitter-friendly Comerica Park. Take Detroit (8*). |
|||||||
04-13-24 | Giants v. Rays -105 | 11-2 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over San Francisco at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Rays are rolling right now, winners of three games in a row. I look for them to keep it going as they send promising right-hander Ryan Pepiot to the mound against veteran Logan Webb of the Giants. Pepiot got roughed up by the Rangers in his Rays debut but bounced back nicely to toss six shutout innings of three-hit, no-walk ball while striking out 11 at hitter-friendly Coors Field last time out. Coming over from the Dodgers, the Rays do feel like they have a good one in Pepiot and I tend to agree. He showed plenty of promise before injuries took their toll last season. Logan Webb has battled through some control issues in the early going this season but has still posted a FIP around three. He's always good for eating innings and is consistently effective but I'm not convinced the Giants can give him enough run support nor do I have much faith in San Francisco's sagging bullpen. Take Tampa Bay (8*). |
|||||||
04-12-24 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks -116 | 9-6 | Loss | -116 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over St. Louis at 9:40 pm et on Friday. Brandon Pfaadt enjoyed a nice turnaround for the Diamondbacks last season and while his ERA through two starts this year leaves a lot to be desired that doesn't tell the whole story. Pfaadt actually checks in sporting a 2.85 FIP giving him something to build on as he faces the Cardinals on Friday. We'll fade Cards starter Steven Matz as he comes off a solid five-inning outing against the Marlins. His 1.74 ERA and 1.16 WHIP won't hold. I look for the D'Backs to get to him on Friday. Take Arizona (8*). |
|||||||
04-12-24 | Cubs +105 v. Mariners | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago over Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Friday. I'm fairly high on Cubs starter Jordan Wicks in the early going this season. We managed to cash the 'under' in his most recent start against the Dodgers. He didn't necessarily have his best stuff on that afternoon but still hung in there and ultimately helped our cause. I like the matchup here against a Mariners offense that just hasn't been there with any consistency in the early stages of the season. Bryce Miller has a bright future for Seattle, or at least that's the general consensus. I do think he's a considerable step behind the likes of George Kirby and Logan Gilbert in the M's starting rotation, however. In fact, I'm not sure Miller will every reach those heights. He's alternated good and bad starts so far this year and I think he's in for a rough one on Friday. Take Chicago (10*). |
|||||||
04-11-24 | Orioles v. Red Sox +112 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Boston over Baltimore at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Orioles have taken the first two games in this series including last night's contest in comeback fashion. We have a terrific starting pitching matchup on tap for Thursday's series finale but I'll give the Red Sox the edge with Garrett Whitlock taking the ball. Whitlock showed promise before being moved to the bullpen last year. So far this season he has logged a 2.25 FIP and 1.18 WHIP and that comes on the heels of an outstanding Spring. Grayson Rodriguez has the potential to be an ace for the Orioles but we saw him go through a stretch where he couldn't keep the ball in the park last May and we're seeing signs of that again in the early going this season (three home runs allowed in two starts). Fenway Park isn't a great place to figure out such issues. Take Boston (10*). |
|||||||
04-09-24 | Astros v. Royals +114 | 3-4 | Win | 114 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City over Houston at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Astros rallied to win the final two games of their four-game series in Texas but now find themselves at a disadvantage travelling to face a rested and rolling Royals club on Tuesday in Kansas City. I like the way the starting pitching matchup sets up for Kansas City in the series opener as it sends Cole Ragans to the hill against Cristian Javier. These two pitchers are on different career trajectories right now with Javier heading in the wrong direction and Ragans quickly ascending to elite status. Javier did pitch well in his most recent outing but that only serves to artificially inflate his price here. Ragans recorded a 2.49 FIP in 70+ innings after joining the Royals last season and has picked up right where he left off in 2024, posting a 2.91 FIP and 0.89 WHIP in two starts. Take Kansas City (8*). |
|||||||
04-09-24 | Marlins +169 v. Yankees | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Marlins were shut out on Monday failing to build off Sunday's first victory of the season. I do think that lopsided result gives Yankees bettors a false sense of security with Carlos Rodon taking the ball for the third time this season on Tuesday. His 2.79 ERA so far this season doesn't tell the whole story as he has recorded a lofty 5.98 FIP in 9 2/3 innings of work. Likewise, Marlins starter A.J. Puk had a fine Spring but has been lit up in his first two regular season outings. I look for him to bounce back here and we'll note that he's not the one being priced as a big favorite. For his big league career, Puk has posted a solid 3.67 FIP. I think better days are ahead for the left-hander. Take Miami (8*). |
|||||||
04-09-24 | Orioles -136 v. Red Sox | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore over Boston at 2:10 pm et on Tuesday. We're being offered a decent price to back the Orioles on Tuesday as they look to cool off the red hot Red Sox. Corbin Burnes has been terrific in two starts with his new team, logging a 1.95 FIP and 0.86 WHIP. Red Sox starter Brayan Bello certainly isn't as bad as he's shown in the early going this season but a FIP north of six can't be ignored, especially as he prepares to face a loaded Orioles lineup. I think there's trouble brewing for the Sox in their home opener on Tuesday. Take Baltimore (8*). |
|||||||
04-08-24 | Rays -135 v. Angels | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
American League Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Monday. We'll get another shot at fading Angels starter Tyler Anderson at a reasonable price after he inexplicably tossed seven shutout innings against the Marlins in his 2024 debut. Los Angeles is coming off a series loss at home against another (weaker) A.L. East opponent in the Red Sox. The Rays come in off a series win in Colorado and will look to keep it rolling with Zach Eflin on the mound on Monday. He shook off a rough debut against the Blue Jays by holding the Rangers to just one earned run over 6 1/3 innings last time out. I would consider Anderson one of the more overpaid starters in baseball right now and will gladly fade him in this matchup. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
|||||||
04-08-24 | Marlins +145 v. Yankees | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over New York at 6:05 pm et on Monday. The Marlins finally picked up their first victory of the season on Sunday and I look for them to notch a second straight win on Monday as they hand the ball to Jesus Luzardo against Nestor Cortes of the Yankees. I'm not going to knock Luzardo for a shaky outing against the Angels last time out. His FIP north of four is going to come down in time while he has recorded a sub-1.00 FIP through his first two starts. Cortes' first couple of starts haven't been all that encouraging for a pitcher approaching 30 years of age that has dealt with shoulder concerns. Through two outings, Cortes owns a 4.30 FIP and 1.70 WHIP. Coming off three straight series victories to open the campaign, I look for the Yankees to get tripped up here. Take Miami (8*). |
|||||||
04-06-24 | Mets v. Reds -115 | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over New York at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Mets took the opener of this series yesterday but that was their game to get in my opinion as they had veteran Jose Quintana going against Hunter Greene. On Saturday, the starting pitching advantage flips back to the Reds as they send Nick Martinez to the hill against Luis Severino. I think Severino might just be done as a productive big league starter. Starting pitchers at his age don't tend to enjoy sudden turnarounds and he showed us nothing in his regular season debut, getting lit up for 11 hits and six earned runs in just five innings of work against Milwaukee. The Mets took a flyer on the veteran right-hander but we won't do the same. Martinez has showed some promise in a starting role over the course of his career. He didn't have his best stuff in his regular season debut with the Reds but after a fine Spring, I'm willing to give him a pass. Look for the Reds bats to wake from their slumber on Saturday. Take Cincinnati (8*). |
|||||||
04-03-24 | Pirates -151 v. Nationals | 3-5 | Loss | -151 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Washington at 6:45 pm et on Wednesday. This is a pitching mismatch that isn't being properly reflected in the price. Mitch Keller is a serviceable starter for the Pirates. He will be looking to bounce back following a shaky first start of the regular season, however. I'm confident he'll rebound, noting he recorded a 3.80 FIP and 1.25 WHIP last season (and has posted a sub-4.00 FIP in three consecutive years). Trevor Williams, a former Pirate, will counter for Washington. He was awful for the Nationals last season and even worse in the Spring. Starters of this age and quality don't tend to enjoy sudden rebounds. Look for the Buccos bats to stay hot. Take Pittsburgh (8*). |
|||||||
04-03-24 | Angels v. Marlins -114 | 10-2 | Loss | -114 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over Los Angeles at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. While most have already written off the the Marlins it's important to remember we're less than a week into the season. I like the matchup here as they look to tee off on Patrick Sandoval. The left-hander hasn't been good in his recent years, wasn't good in the Spring and was downright awful in his regular season debut. The opportunities have been there for the Marlins offensively, they simply haven't been able to cash in. Today they will. A.J. Puk won't be asked to do too much for Miami in a starter's role here. It's not as if the Angels bats are setting the world on fire, producing just three runs in last night's victory. Take Miami (8*). |
|||||||
04-02-24 | Giants +130 v. Dodgers | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Giants got drummed 8-3 in the opener of this series last night. I look for them to bounce back from consecutive losses as they send steady right-hander Logan Webb to the hill on Tuesday. Webb comes off three consecutive seasons in which he recorded an xERA of 3.31 or better including a 2.98 mark last year. The Dodgers haven't settled on a starter for Tuesday's game as of yet. We'll back the Giants as an 'action' bet here as Los Angeles isn't brimming with favorable options for the slot. Take San Francisco (8*). |
|||||||
04-02-24 | Yankees v. Diamondbacks -111 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over New York at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. Nestor Cortes was awful in exhibition action and struggled in his regular season debut as well. You have to wonder whether his shoulder issues from a year ago are still a factor. The Yankees are undoubtedly rolling out of the gate but I expect the Diamondbacks to bounce back from last night's series-opening loss. Arizona has been hot at the dish early in the campaign as well and should get to Cortes early and often. Zac Gallen looked good in his first start of the campaign, allowing just one earned run over five innings. He faces a much tougher test in his second outing but it's worth noting that he did pitch six shutout frames against New York last September. Take Arizona (8*). |
|||||||
04-02-24 | Angels v. Marlins -140 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami over Los Angeles at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. This is one of the bigger starting pitching mismatches on Tuesday's board but it isn't being priced like it. Tyler Anderson will start the year in the Angels rotation. That's only because he earned a big contract following consecutive solid campaigns in 2021 and 2022. He wasn't good in 2023 and I don't expect him to turn back the clock in 2024. The Marlins will hand the ball to their ace Jesus Luzardo. His ho-hum season debut against the Pirates (a game the Marlins lost) keeps the price in a reasonable range here. I expect Luzardo to make the leap to elite status this season, if he's not already there, but it will take some time for the betting marketplace to come around (and for the Marlins bats to start producing). I like the spot off last night's loss. Take Miami (10*). |
|||||||
03-31-24 | Red Sox +134 v. Mariners | 5-1 | Win | 134 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. The Mariners walked the Red Sox off on a Julio Rodriguez extra innings RBI single on Saturday, notching their second straight win in this series. I look for Boston to bounce back behind an underrated starter in Garrett Whitlock on Sunday. Whitlock had a fantastic Spring following a so-so 2023 campaign. While Whitlock did record an ERA north of five last season he was certainly better than that with a FIP nearly a full run lower. Bryce Miller will get the start for Seattle. He's considered among the 'big three' of young arms in the Mariners starting rotation but I do think he's a notch below both George Kirby and Logan Gilbert. Seattle continues to have a tough time manufacturing offense and at this price, I'm willing to fade it on Sunday. Take Boston (8*). |
|||||||
03-30-24 | Yankees v. Astros -128 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -128 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston over New York at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. The Astros have dropped the first two games of this series but I look for them to bounce back behind impressive young starter Hunter Brown on Saturday. Not that Spring Training numbers ultimately mean all that much but Brown was electric during exhibition play, posting a 2.12 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 17 strikeouts in 17 innings of work. The long season ultimately wore on Brown in 2023 but I look for a big sophomore campaign for the right-hander and this is a big stage for him in his season debut, facing the mighty Yankees off consecutive losses. New York will hand the ball to newly-acquired Marcus Stroman. He's coming off an All-Star campaign and makes the jump back to the American League. Note that Stroman's teams are just 11-19 (-3.2 net games) in his last 30 starts as an underdog priced between +125 and +175 including a 2-6 (-2.9 net games) record in that situation over the last three seasons. Take Houston (10*). |
|||||||
03-29-24 | Blue Jays v. Rays -113 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Toronto at 6:50 pm et on Friday. The Blue Jays smashed the Rays on Opening Day but I look for Tampa Bay to return the favor on Friday. Jays starter Chris Bassitt didn't have a great Spring, allowing 28-of-93 batters he faced to reach base. Last season, he recorded a middling 4.28 FIP and 1.18 WHIP. Aaron Civale will counter for Tampa Bay. He posted an ERA north of five during the Spring but did allow only 13-of-47 batters he faced to reach base. Civale saw his home runs allowed take a jump in 2023 but the rest of his numbers were fine. He has recorded a 3.57 FIP or better in each of the last three seasons. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
|||||||
10-31-23 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks -105 | Top | 11-7 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
World Series Game of the Year. My selection is on Arizona over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Rangers gained the upper hand in this series last night as they jumped all over Diamondbacks rookie starter Brandon Pfaadt early and cruised to a 3-1 victory. I look for Arizona to answer back on Tuesday in what sets up as a battle of the bullpens. Andrew Heaney will get the start for the visiting Rangers but isn't likely to be given a long leash. He has pitched just 2 1/3 innings in the last two rounds of the playoffs, allowing six of the 13 batters he has faced to reach base. On the season, Heaney owns a very pedestrian 4.66 FIP and 1.38 WHIP. Reliever Joe Mantiply will counter for Arizona. Again, we can expect to see only an inning or so from the left-hander. I liked the way the D'Backs managed their bullpen in last night's defeat as they kept key arms like Ryan Thompson, Kevin Ginkel and closer Paul Sewald fresh for Game 4 on Tuesday. As expected in a tight game playing with the lead, the Rangers used both setup man Aroldis Chapman and closer Jose Leclerc. The Rangers already accomplished their goal of at least getting this series back to Texas for a Game 6. Now the pressure is squarely on Arizona as it can ill afford to go down 3-1 against a team as good as Texas. The D'Backs have proven resilient throughout these playoffs and I look for them to answer the bell once again on Tuesday. Take Arizona (10*). |
|||||||
10-30-23 | Rangers -104 v. Diamondbacks | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Arizona at 8:05 pm et on Monday. It wasn't all that surprising to see the Diamondbacks rebound following their disheartening loss in Game 1 of this series. After all, the Snakes have been incredibly resilient throughout these playoffs and didn't want to go down the path of needing to rally from an 0-2 series deficit again the way they did last round. Here, I think it's advantage Rangers as the series shifts to Arizona for Game 3. Veteran Max Scherzer hasn't pitched particularly well in his two playoff starts this year, but he was certainly 'good enough' in the fifth and deciding game against the Astros last round as Texas rolled to an 11-4 victory. Scherzer has absolutely manhandled the current Diamondbacks roster, holding them to a collective 16-for-103 (.155) with 39 strikeouts and eight walks. Meanwhile, D'Backs rookie Brandon Pfaadt has impressed in his four playoff starts but he faces a tall task here as the current Rangers roster torched the right-hander in a regular season matchup, hitting a combined 9-for-19 (.474) with four home runs and only three strikeouts. Take Texas (8*). |
|||||||
10-24-23 | Diamondbacks +158 v. Phillies | 4-2 | Win | 158 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Philadelphia at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The pressure rests squarely on the shoulders of the Phillies in Game 7 on Tuesday after they squandered an opportunity to close out this series at home yesterday. Most expected the Diamondbacks to go off quietly into that good night after dropping Games 1 and 2 in this series. Instead, Arizona answered back with consecutive wins of its own at home before dropping Game 5. Now this youthful team has all the confidence in the world as it looks to stun Philadelphia in front of its home faithful on Tuesday. Rookie Brandon Pfaadt will take the ball for the D'Backs. He displayed some nerves in his first career playoff start in Milwaukee but that seems like ages ago now as he's bounced back by silencing both the Dodgers and these same Phillies in his last two outings. In those two starts, Pfaadt yielded just four hits and no walks while striking out 11 in 10 shutout innings. Current Phillies hitters are a combined 2-for-18 off of the rookie right-hander. Ranger Suarez will counter for Philadelphia. Like Pfaadt, he's been sharp over his last two starts, three if you include a brief outing against the Braves in the NLDS. I don't believe he has the same dominant stuff or extra gear to reach back to compared to Pfaadt, however. What you see is what you get with the veteran left-hander. In 125 innings of work this season he owns a rather pedestrian 3.90 FIP and 1.42 WHIP. If we've learned one thing in these playoffs it's to expect the unexpected and what could be more unexpected than a Rangers-Diamondbacks World Series matchup? Take Arizona (8*). |
|||||||
10-23-23 | Rangers +114 v. Astros | Top | 11-4 | Win | 114 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
ALCS Game of the Year. My selection is on Texas over Houston at 8:05 pm et on Monday. Bettors will likely be quick to back the Astros to bounce back following last night's blown opportunity to close out this series at home, especially given we're going to see the same pitching matchup from Game 3 - a contest Houston led virtually wire-to-wire in an 8-5 victory. I like Rangers veteran and future Hall-of-Famer Max Scherzer's chances of bouncing back here, however, after he pitched for the first time in over a month in Game 3. Scherzer said after the game that he had more in the tank but agreed with manager Bruce Bochy's decision to lift him from the game after four innings with the Rangers trailing 5-0. While Mad Max got off to a shaky start in that contest, he did settle down and strike out the final two batters he faced and threw 42-of-63 pitches for strikes. We know the moment isn't too big for Scherzer as he's been in similar situations before. Also note that his teams have gone a perfect 6-0 in his last six starts here at Minute Maid Park, including 2-0 in postseason play (as a member of the Nationals in 2019). Cristian Javier will counter for Houston. He's posted tremendous postseason stats during his career and has successfully bounced back in these playoffs following a rough regular season. With that being said, I don't think there's any intimidation factor at play here as the Rangers will be seeing Javier for the eighth time since the start of last season. He didn't last beyond the sixth inning in any of those previous seven outings against Texas. In fact, he's failed to make it through the sixth inning in any of his last four starts against the Rangers. Texas is a perfect 7-0 on the road in these playoffs but it will be all for not if it can't secure a Game 7 victory on Monday night. I expect the Rangers to rise to the occasion once again. Take Texas (10*). |
|||||||
10-20-23 | Phillies -124 v. Diamondbacks | 5-6 | Loss | -124 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Arizona at 8:05 pm et on Friday. The Phillies offense dried up in last night's 2-1 defeat as they let the Diamondbacks back into the series. I expect Arizona's success to be short-lived, however, as it looks to even the series at two games apiece on Friday. Cristopher Sanchez will take the ball for the Phillies in Game 4. I wouldn't put too much stock into his presence at the start of this game as he's likely to be on a short leash having not pitched since September 30th and not started a game since September 27th. He's held his own on the road this season, holding opposing batters to a .207 average while giving up only five extra-base hits in 92 plate appearances. Joe Mantiply will get the start for the D'Backs in what amounts to a bullpen game. I think there's a good chance the Phillies jump all over the left-hander, noting their current hitters are a combined 14-for-31 including six extra-base hits against him. Interestingly, Bryce Harper is 0-for-4 against Mantiply but I'd rather bet on Harper noting he's been one of the Phillies hottest hitters in these playoffs, batting .357 with four home runs. He was 0-for-2 last night. The last time he went hitless in a playoff game (and only previous time he did so this October) he responded by going 2-for-2 in Game 1 of the NLDS in Atlanta, helping Philadelphia to a 3-0 victory. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
|||||||
10-19-23 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks +117 | 1-2 | Win | 117 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Philadelphia at 5:05 pm et on Thursday. For the Phillies, picking up two more wins and moving on to the World Series for a second straight year seems like only a formality at this point. With that being said, I don't think the Diamondbacks will go away quietly as the series shifts to Arizona for Game 3 on Thursday afternoon. Ranger Suarez will get the start for Philadelphia. He pitched well in two NLDS starts against Atlanta although not much was asked of him as he faced just 13 and 18 batters in those two contests. The D'Backs have had some success against the left-hander, going a combined 20-for-70 (.270) against him with only 15 strikeouts and 11 walks. Brandon Pfaadt will counter for Arizona. The rookie struggled in his playoff debut against the Brewers (in Milwaukee) but rebounded in his next outing against the Dodgers (at home), throwing 30-of-42 pitches for strikes and allowing just two hits over 4 1/3 shutout innings. Note that the Phillies are just 6-12 this season after allowing four runs or less in four consecutive games, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 1.7 runs in that situation. Take Arizona (8*). |
|||||||
10-18-23 | Astros +121 v. Rangers | 8-5 | Win | 121 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'm not entirely sure why the Rangers are messing with their starting rotation and inserting Max Scherzer on Wednesday when they've clearly got a good thing going in that regard. The Rangers are saying all the right things and we know Scherzer is the ultimate competitor so he wants to be out there but he's only thrown a 65 or 70-pitch bullpen session ahead of this critical start and I won't be surprised if the Astros jump all over him, just as they did back on September 6th, right here in Texas (Houston scored seven earned runs off of Scherzer in just three innings). Cristian Javier will get the call for the Astros. He improved on his terrific career postseason numbers with a masterful outing against the Twins in the ALDS. Houston has to feel as if it has the right guy on the hill to get it back into this series noting that it has gone 7-3 in Javier's 10 previous starts against Texas. Current Rangers hitters are just 30-for-123 (.244) off of Javier with only 12 extra-base hits. Take Houston (8*). |
|||||||
10-17-23 | Diamondbacks +149 v. Phillies | Top | 0-10 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
NLCS Game of the Year. My selection is on Arizona over Philadelphia at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Phillies took the opener of this series by a 5-3 score last night, notching their fifth consecutive victory at home in these playoffs. I look for that streak to come to an end on Tuesday, however, as the Diamondbacks hand the ball to Merrill Kelly against Aaron Nola of the Phillies. Kelly should have a live arm having not pitched since October 7th, when he helped the D'Backs to an 11-2 rout of the Dodgers in Los Angeles. Since getting rocked for seven earned runs against the Mets on September 14th, Kelly has allowed just four earned runs in four starts, covering a span of 25 innings of work. Note that Arizona has won 10 of Kelly's 16 road starts this season. Aaron Nola recorded nine strikeouts against Atlanta last time out and while most bettors will look at that as a positive, high strikeout totals have been problematic for Nola in his next start this season. After striking out nine or more batters, Nola has gone on to allow 5, 6, 0, 4 and 7 earned runs in his next outing with the Phillies going 0-5 in those contests. The D'Backs should be happy to be facing Nola noting that he owns a 7.67 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in five career starts against them. While Arizona has now dropped four straight meetings with the Phillies, that actually sets up favorably here as it has gone 7-1 when seeking quadruple-revenge against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 2.0 runs on average in that situation. Take Arizona (10*). |
|||||||
10-16-23 | Rangers v. Astros -118 | 5-4 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston over Texas at 4:35 pm et on Monday. The Rangers took the opener of this series last night, improving to an incredible 6-0 in the postseason. I look for the Astros to answer back on Monday as they send Framber Valdez to the hill against Nathan Eovaldi of the Rangers. It's worth noting that Texas hasn't won consecutive games against Houston since back in May of 2021. Eovaldi has struggled mightily against current Astros hitters, allowing 45 hits in 145 at-bats (.310). That includes a whopping 22 extra-base hits, not to mention a modest 27:16 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Framber Valdez hasn't pitched particularly well lately but I like his chances of rising to the occasion in this critical matchup. He owns a 3.64 ERA and 1.10 WHIP at home this season and will be happy to be pitching in the daytime, having logged a sparkling 1.32 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in five afternoon starts this year. While the Rangers were able to close out last night's game, they've blown 16 saves while converting only 13 on the road this season. Take Houston (8*). |
|||||||
10-11-23 | Dodgers -140 v. Diamondbacks | 2-4 | Loss | -140 | 25 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Arizona at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Dodgers couldn't get their offense going at all in Games 1 and 2 in Los Angeles. With this game projected to be much higher-scoring, I look for L.A. to find its way back into the series with a victory. Lance Lynn will be tasked with stopping the bleeding for the Dodgers. I believe he's the right guy on the mound in this moment, noting that he has held current Diamondbacks hitters to a combined 10-for-50 at the plate. It's a much different story for D'Backs rookie starter Brandon Pfaadt. He was shaky in his postseason debut in Milwaukee. Now he goes up against a Dodgers club that has clocked him to the tune of 16-for-42 (.381) at the dish with eight extra-base hits. Pfaadt won't have a very long leash in this game. Note that Los Angeles is 18-4 when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.8 runs in that situation. Arizona checks in 15-24 when coming off a victory by two runs or less this season, outscored by 1.1 runs on average in that spot. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
|||||||
10-09-23 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -149 | 4-2 | Loss | -149 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Arizona at 9:05 pm et on Monday. The Diamondbacks are the Cinderella story of this year’s playoffs but I do expect their three-game winning streak to come to an end on Monday. Zac Gallen will take the ball for Arizona. While he’s had another terrific season he’s up against a Dodgers lineup that is familiar with his stuff. A whopping seven different Los Angeles hitters have homered off of Gallen. Rookie Bobby Miller will counter for the Dodgers. I like the fact that he gets to make his playoff debut at home. A lot is expected of the Dodgers young pitchers with the likes of Julio Urias and Tony Gonsolin sidelined and I look for Miller to rise to the occasion with L.A. coming off a loss in Game 1. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
|||||||
10-09-23 | Phillies v. Braves -149 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Monday. The Braves dropped the opener of this series in shutout fashion on Saturday but that sets them up well to rebound in Game 2 in Atlanta on Monday. Note that Atlanta has gone 70-26 all-time with Max Fried on the mound as a favorite, as is the case here. The Braves are also 47-21 when coming off consecutive losses against an opponent, which is also the situation here (Atlanta has dropped its last two meetings with Philadelphia), over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, the Phillies check in just 6-11 when coming off four or more consecutive games in which they allowed four runs or less this season, outscored by an average margin of 1.9 runs in that situation. We'll also favor the Braves noting that Phillies starter Zack Wheeler has posted a 7-11 team record in 18 previous nighttime starts this season. Take Atlanta (8*). |
|||||||
10-07-23 | Phillies v. Braves -195 | 3-0 | Loss | -195 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Saturday. I expect plenty of runs on the board as the Braves send Spencer Strider to the hill against Ranger Suarez in Game 1 of this NLDS on Saturday. Current Braves hitters have actually been held at bay to a certain extent by Suarez, combining to go 27-for-113 (.239). However, four different Braves have homered off of the left-hander previously and I believe a number of bats in their lineup are in line for some positive regression here. Note that Michael Harris in particular is just 1-for-13 against Suarez but hasn't really been getting fooled, striking out only twice. That's a common theme. As a whole, the Braves have struck out just 23 times while walking 16 times against Suarez. Compare that to Spencer Strider against current Phillies hitters. Strider has held the Philadelphia bats to a 25-for-146 (.171) ledger at the dish, racking up a whopping 60 strikeouts while walking only 10. With that said, four different Phillies hitters have also homered off of Strider. If the Braves have an achilles heel it's their bullpen as they've blown 13 saves at home this season and rate out poorly in terms of hits and home runs allowed. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a long-term 151-111 with the Phillies coming off a win over a division opponent in which they allowed one run or less, leading to an average total of 9.5 runs in that situation while the 'over' is 21-8 with the Braves at home seeking revenge for a one-run loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 10.6 runs. Take the over (8*). |
|||||||
10-03-23 | Rangers v. Rays -146 | 4-0 | Loss | -146 | 18 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Texas at 3:05 pm et on Tuesday. Rangers starter Jordan Montgomery pitched exceptionally well down the stretch, allowing just two earned runs over his last four starts. He's made 14 career starts against the Rays and hasn't fared well, however, posting a 4.93 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. Current Tampa Bay hitters have had plenty of success against the left-hander, batting just shy of .300 in 84 at-bats with six home runs. Rays starter Tyler Glasnow will be pleased to be facing the Rangers as he owns a 0.46 ERA and 0.56 WHIP, albeit in just three career outings against them. Glasnow also checks in sporting a 3.18 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 10 home starts this season. The bullpens are virtually a wash with one important exception. The Rangers have converted just 30 saves this season while blowing an identical 30. Meanwhile, the Rays 'pen has converted 45 saves while blowing only 26. This series won't be a walk for Tampa Bay but I do expect it to gain the upper hand in Game 1 on Tuesday. Take Tampa Bay (8*). |
|||||||
09-30-23 | Dodgers -160 v. Giants | 1-2 | Loss | -160 | 13 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over San Francisco at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. Clayton Kershaw will get his final start of the regular season for the Dodgers on Saturday and while this is a meaningless game in the grand scheme of things, I do expect the future Hall-of-Famer to keep the same approach and take care of his business the way he always does. Kershaw will undoubtedly be happy to be facing the Giants, noting that he owns a 1.98 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 56 career starts against them. He most recently tossed five shutout innings in a 7-0 victory over San Francisco one week ago tonight. San Francisco will give the start to Tristan Beck. He's been reasonably effective out of the bullpen this season but not so much as a starter. In two previous starts, Beck has allowed nine earned runs in seven innings. Note that the trio of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and J.D. Martinez have gone a combined 5-for-9 off of Beck without a single strikeout. The Dodgers bullpen doesn't own as much of an advantage as you might think in this game as the Giants relief corps has been fairly reliable if not overworked (they're approaching 700 innings pitched on the season). With that said, the Los Angeles bullpen is easy to trust away from home, where it has converted 21 saves while blowing only six this season. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
|||||||
09-30-23 | Red Sox v. Orioles -130 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Baltimore over Boston at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Red Sox were shutout victors in last night's matchup between these two teams, evening the series at a game apiece. I look for the Orioles to answer back on Saturday. Kutter Crawford will take the ball for Boston. He's lasted six innings just once in his last six starts and checks in sporting a 5.69 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 13 nighttime starts this season. Current Orioles hitters have had plenty of success against Crawford, reaching him for 11 hits in 22 at-bats with only three strikeouts to go along with three walks. Kyle Gibson will counter for Baltimore. He's given the O's a big lift when it counts this season, logging a 3.18 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in eight starts against A.L. East opponents, with Baltimore winning six of those contests. He's also closing out the regular season in excellent form, posting a 2.45 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over his last three starts. For his career, Gibson has recorded a 3.72 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in nine previous starts against Boston. The Orioles own a slight advantage in terms of the bullpen matchup. Baltimore's relief corps has posted a collective 1.86 ERA and 0.62 WHIP over the last seven games, being called into duty for only 19 1/3 innings over that stretch. Take Baltimore (10*). |
|||||||
09-29-23 | Cubs -111 v. Brewers | 3-4 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Cubs margin for error is razor-thin at this point after they were swept in a three-game series in Atlanta. The good news is, they're heading to Milwaukee to face a Brewers club that wrapped up the N.L. Central title earlier this week and will be looking to give some of their regular starters some rest during this series. I do think Chicago has the right guy on the mound to end its losing skid on Friday as it hands the ball to veteran Kyle Hendricks. The Cubs are a perfect 4-0 in his last four outings against the Brewers. Current Milwaukee hitters have gone a woeful 34-for-152 (.224) with 40 strikeouts and 17 walks against Hendricks. He deserved better than the loss he received in his most recent outing as he gave up three earned runs, only one of them earned, over six innings against the Pirates. The fact that Hendricks hasn't allowed a home run in seven of his last eight starts is a good indicator that he's in solid form down the stretch. Colin Rea will counter for Milwaukee. He was demoted to the bullpen following his last start. Rea pitched reasonably well earlier in the season but has seen his FIP rise to 5.07 thanks to a rough stretch this month. He lasted fewer than five innings in each of his four September starts. It's difficult to get a sense for how Cubs hitters will fare against Rea as only Cody Bellinger and Jeimer Candelario have seen him previously (a combined three at-bats). The Brewers bullpen has certainly been superior to that of the Cubs this season but I question how Milwaukee will handle its key relief arms (likely very carefully) in this series with the playoffs on the horizon. Take Chicago (8*). |
|||||||
09-27-23 | Padres -105 v. Giants | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 25 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday. To say Padres hitters have worn out former teammate Sean Manaea would be an understatement. They've gone a combined 26-for-78 (.333) off the left-hander including 11 extra-base hits. Manaea is coming off a stunning seven-inning, shutout performance on the road against the Dodgers but I'm willing to pay to see him to do it again here. On the season, Manaea owns a 5.48 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 23 innings of work here at home. Rookie Matt Waldron will counter for the Padres. He's been getting better with each start, most recently striking out nine and allowing only one earned run in 5 2/3 innings in a 4-2 victory over the Cardinals. Prior to that he gave up two earned runs in 5 1/3 innings in a 4-2 road win over the A's. I'll continue to beat the drum that the Giants bullpen is severely overworked in the final week of the season. San Francisco's relief corps is approaching a whopping 700 collective innings on the campaign. In stark contrast, the Padres bullpen entered last night's contest having logged just 561 innings. Take San Diego (8*). |
|||||||
09-27-23 | Cardinals v. Brewers -128 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
N.L. Central Game of the Year. My selection is on Milwaukee over St. Louis at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Brewers jumped ahead early and had their opportunity to throw a knockout punch against the reeling Cardinals in last night's series-opener, but squandered it in an eventual 4-1 loss. I look for Milwaukee to bounce back on Wednesday as it hands the ball to veteran left-hander Wade Miley against Zack Thompson of the Cards. Thompson remains in the St. Louis starting rotation out of necessity only as the Cards are simply playing out the string at this point. The right-hander checks in sporting a 4.72 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in eight appearances this season. He just faced the Brewers last week, allowing four earned runs including two home runs in five innings. Note that Thompson has topped out at six strikeouts in his last seven starts. Wade Miley threw six shutout innings in a 6-0 victory over the Cards last week. In fact, Milwaukee has won each of his last three and five of his last six starts overall. Note that Miley owns a 3.08 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 12 nighttime starts this season. While his career numbers against the Cards aren't eye-popping, he has handled their current lineup. St. Louis hitters have gone 18-for-63 (.286) off the left-hander with five extra-base hits. Keep in mind, Paul Goldschmidt is 10-for-20 against Miley with a pair of doubles and a pair of home runs. The problem for Goldy right now is, it's just not that difficult to pitch around him given the current state of the St. Louis lineup (Nolan Arenado headlines the list of players on the I.L.). Sporting one of the best bullpens in baseball, the Brew Crew should have a significant edge in the latter innings on Tuesday. Milwaukee relievers have not only been effective, but haven't been overworked either, logging a collective 538 2/3 innings on the campaign (entering last night's action). The Brewers 'pen entered this series having recorded a collective 1.93 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over the last seven games. Take Milwaukee (10*). |
|||||||
09-26-23 | Padres -118 v. Giants | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
Division Game of the Week. My selection is on San Diego over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. The Padres dropped a heart-breaker and spoiled another win for likely N.L. Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell in the opener of this series last night. San Diego couldn't get anything going offensively after plating a run in the first inning against Giants ace Logan Webb. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday as they face San Francisco rookie Kyle Harrison. While Harrison undoubtedly has a bright MLB future, he's been going through it since his late-August call-up. Harrison checks in having allowed 14 earned runs in just 20 innings of work over his last four starts. This will be his second career start against the Padres after getting lit up to the tune of six earned runs in 5 2/3 innings back on September 2nd. Behind Harrison is a struggling Giants bullpen that entered last night's contest sporting an ERA well north of six over the last seven games. The good news is they weren't pressed into duty thanks to Logan Webb's complete game performance. The bad news is, they do figure to play a prominent role on Tuesday, noting that Harrison has lasted six innings just once in six career outings. Seth Lugo will take the ball for San Diego. He has quietly been the Padres most consistent starter outside of Snell, working at least six innings in 11 of his last 15 starts. In nine outings against N.L. West opponents this season he has logged a 3.16 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. He should be happy to be facing the Giants here, noting that he has posted a 3.08 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in four career starts against them. Like the Giants, the Padres didn't need to use many bullpen resources last night and unfortunately it was to their detriment leaving Robert Suarez in the game for the final 1 1/3 innings. All told, Padres relievers have worked around 120 innings fewer than the Giants relief corps this season. Take San Diego (10*). |
|||||||
09-26-23 | Reds v. Guardians -102 | 11-7 | Loss | -102 | 21 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland over Cincinnati at 6:10 pm et on Tuesday. We'll fade the Reds after they snapped their losing streak with a victory over the Pirates on Sunday. Now they follow up an off day on Monday with a short trip to Cleveland to face a Guardians club that is essentially playing with 'house money', albeit not in a positive way, as they play out the string at the end of a disappointing campaign. Guardians starter Lucas Giolito has bounced around more than any starter in baseball this season so he'll be looking to audition for next season in what is likely his last start of the year on Tuesday. His results have been mixed since joining Cleveland but he is just one start removed from striking out 12 batters over seven shutout innings against Texas so we know what he's capable of. Reds starter Hunter Greene has had an up-and-down campaign as well. He's the pitcher that falls into the letdown spot here after striking out 14 batters against the Twins in his most recent turn in the starting rotation. Note that Cincinnati still lost that game 5-3 as its offense has run dry down the stretch. Of course the Reds 'need this one more' but that should have little bearing on the end result on Tuesday. I like the Guardians chances of playing spoiler against their cross-state rival. Take Cleveland (8*). |
|||||||
09-25-23 | Padres -116 v. Giants | 1-2 | Loss | -116 | 15 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. While it's a case of too little, too late, the Padres have undoubtedly played their best baseball down the stretch. Monday's starter, Blake Snell, has posted Cy Young Award-caliber numbers, logging a 2.33 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. As usual, command has been an issue and as a result Snell's FIP has remained relatively high at 3.48. Here, he'll face a Giants club that doesn't walk at an abnormally high rate but does strike out a ton. Snell should be happy to be facing San Francisco, noting that he owns a career 1.83 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in eight starts against it. The Giants will hand the ball to their ace Logan Webb. Note that he'll be making his second consecutive start on short rest (four days) and looks like a pitcher that's running out of gas a bit having worked north of 200 innings on the season. Webb has topped out at six strikeouts over his last four starts, reaching just four in three of those outings. Speaking of overworked, the Giants bullpen has logged just shy of 700 total innings this season. Entering last night's contest, San Francisco relievers had combined to post a 7.60 ERA and 1.95 WHIP over the last seven games. Take San Diego (8*). |
|||||||
09-18-23 | Mariners -165 v. A's | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Monday. The Mariners got swept in a critical three-game series at home against the Dodgers and now head to Oakland licking their wounds as they look to bounce back and stay in A.L. Wild Card hunt. They've got the right guy on the mound to do just that in rookie Bryan Woo. He had his turn in the starting rotation skipped earlier this month out of concern his arm was tiring having logged north of 120 innings between the minors and bigs this season. That came on the heels of an ugly start in Cincinnati in which he allowed five earned runs over five innings without striking out a single batter. When he did return to the mound on September 12th, he delivered 5 2/3 innings of four-hit shutout ball, striking out eight without issuing a single walk. He'll be making his second career start against the A's on Monday. In his previous outing against them he twirled six shutout innings of three-hit ball in a 7-0 Mariners win on August 28th. J.P. Sears will counter for Oakland. He does own terrific numbers in four career starts against Seattle, logging a 0.86 WHIP and 0.95 WHIP. Keep in mind, the last time he saw the Mariners back in May, he wasn't necessarily fooling anyone, striking out just one batter over five innings. In a similar vein, Sears has reeled off victories in each of his last three starts overall, yet he has recorded a disappointing 9:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio over that stretch, covering a span of 17 innings. The A's are just 4-9 in his 13 home starts this season where he has posted a 4.76 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. The bullpens in this matchup have been a wash lately but there's no denying the Mariners relief corps has been the superior group as a whole this season. I like the spot for the Seattle 'pen here after Sunday's lopsided defeat against the Dodgers allowed it to use only two relievers, keeping its key arms rested for Monday's trip to Oakland. Note that Mariners relievers have combined to record a 3.26 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with 13 saves converted and only one blown against divisional opponents this season. Take Seattle (8*). |
|||||||
09-17-23 | Padres v. A's +154 | 10-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oakland over San Diego at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. A's starter Ken Waldichuk has enjoyed a nice turnaround as this season has gone on and enters this start in terrific form having allowed just five hits and one earned run over his last three outings, covering a span of 16 innings of work. He's expected to get the bulk of the work on Sunday, perhaps after rookie Joe Boyle gets the first inning in an 'opener' role. While the Padres have taken the first two games of this series, they're still just a team playing out the string, not a whole lot different from the A's. I look for Oakland to salvage Sunday's series finale as they take on Nick Martinez of San Diego. Martinez checks in sporting a rather pedestrian 4.18 FIP and 1.31 WHIP on the season. In his two most recent appearances he didn't manage to strike out a single batter, allowing five-of-nine he faced to reach base in 1 2/3 innings. This amounts to a 'bullpen game' for the Padres and I look for the A's bats to take advantage. Take Oakland (8*). |
|||||||
09-16-23 | Dodgers v. Mariners +132 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Saturday. The Dodgers took the opener of this series by a 6-3 score last night. I look for the Mariners to answer back on Saturday. Future Hall-of-Famer Clayton Kershaw will take the ball for Los Angeles. He enters this start having allowed at least one home run in five straight outings and eight walks over his last two trips to the hill, spanning just 10 innings of work. The Mariners have never defeated Kershaw in four tries against him but it's worth noting that he hasn't faced Seattle since 2020. Rookie Bryce Miller will get the call for the Mariners. He got roughed up to the tune of five earned runs allowed over five innings against the Rays last time out. Miller's last two starts came on the road. Here at home he owns a 3.62 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 12 starts with the Mariners winning eight of those. While the Dodgers bullpen figures to have an advantage over that of the Mariners however I do feel Seattle's relief corps is worthy of support, noting that it has converted 21 saves while blowing only six at home this season. Take Seattle (8*). |
|||||||
09-14-23 | Rangers v. Blue Jays -146 | 9-2 | Loss | -146 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over Texas at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Blue Jays will look to avoid the four-game series sweep against the Rangers on Thursday. I like their chances as they send Kevin Gausman to the hill against Nathan Eovaldi. Gausman bounced back from a rough stretch by tossing eight innings of two-hit, one-run ball, striking out 10 along the way against the Royals last time out. His career numbers against the Rangers are a mixed bag with a 3.21 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Gausman does catch a break with the Rangers missing Adolis Garcia and Josh Jung among others. Note that current (healthy) Rangers hitters have gone just 23-for-82 off of Gausman. Nathan Eovaldi has made two starts since returning from the I.L. He hasn't gotten all that stretched out, working just 1 1/3 and 2 1/3 innings in those two outings. Eovaldi hasn't seemed quite right, giving up eight hits while striking out only four and walking three in 3 2/3 innings since returning. Current Blue Jays hitters have gone 31-for-102 against Eovaldi with eight extra base hits. Both bullpens have struggled lately. The Blue Jays 'pen has been anything but overworked, however, logging just 21 2/3 innings over the last eight games. Meanwhile, Rangers relievers have worked just shy of 40 innings over that same stretch. Take Toronto (8*). |
|||||||
09-13-23 | Rangers v. Blue Jays -112 | 10-0 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over Texas at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the bounce-back spot for the Blue Jays here after they dropped the first two games of this series. Jordan Montgomery will take the ball for Texas. He has posted solid overall numbers this season but things have certainly gone south lately as he has recorded an 8.59 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over his last three starts, covering a span of 14 2/3 innings. Current Blue Jays hitters have gotten to the left-hander to the tune of 30-for-100 at the plate. Of note, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have combined to reach him for 10 hits including three home runs in 29 at-bats. Yusei Kikuchi has quietly been one of Toronto's most reliable starting pitchers this season, entering Wednesday's outing sporting a 3.57 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He turned in an efficient five-inning outing against the Royals last time out, allowing just three hits and one earned run while striking out eight and walking one. While he's taking a step up in class against the Rangers here, I think he'll actually be happy to see Texas, noting he owns a perfect 4-0 team record with a 2.89 ERA and 0.64 WHIP in 18 2/3 innings of work against them. Some will point to the fact that he hasn't faced them since 2021 but current Rangers hitters have gone a woeful 9-for-50 with just three extra-base hits off of Kikuchi. Neither bullpen has pitched particularly well lately but it's worth noting that the Rangers relief corps has combined to blow 14 saves while converting only 11 on the road this season (entering last night's action). Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have made good on 49 save opportunities while blowing only 16 on the campaign. Take Toronto (8*). |
|||||||
09-12-23 | Padres v. Dodgers -151 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
N.L. Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles over San Diego at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Padres took the opener of this series last night, putting up 10 runs in a wild, high-scoring affair. I expect the Dodgers to answer back on Tuesday. Michael Wacha will take the ball for San Diego. He mercifully hasn't faced the Dodgers since 2019 as he owns a lofty 5.51 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 10 previous outings against them. While Wacha has posted solid overall numbers this season he has labored through his last few starts, recording a 5.28 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in his last 15 1/3 innings of work. Lance Lynn gets the start for Los Angeles. Like Wacha, the veteran right-hander has also struggled lately. I'm willing to bet on him bouncing back on Tuesday as he should be happy to be facing the Padres, noting that he owns a 2.61 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 10 career outings against them. In fact, Lynn has already faced San Diego once since joining the Dodgers prior to the trade deadline, holding them to one earned run over six innings in an 8-2 victory on August 6th. There's not a lot separating the two bullpens although it's worth noting that the Padres have more than twice as many blown saves on the road (17) as the Dodgers do at home (8). Take Los Angeles (10*). |
|||||||
09-10-23 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -136 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Arizona at 2:20 pm et on Sunday. One more clutch hit would have probably done it for the Cubs yesterday but instead they dropped their third straight game at the hands of the Diamondbacks and will be looking to avoid a disastrous four-game sweep on Sunday afternoon. I like their chances of doing just that. After facing Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly over the last two days, the Cubs will take a step down in class against D'Backs rookie Brandon Pfaadt on Sunday. Pfaadt has flashed at times during his rookie campaign but has generally struggled and enters in poor form having allowed 10 earned runs on 17 hits over his last three outings covering a span of just 13 innings. Veteran Kyle Hendricks will be tasked with helping the Cubs snap their skid. He gave up four earned runs over 5 1/3 innings against the Giants last time out but is just one start removed from tossing six innings of one-run, four-hit ball against the Brewers. Chicago has won three of his last four starts overall and he owns a terrific 3.15 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in nine daytime starts this season. The bullpens are virtually a wash except for the fact that Arizona has nearly twice as many blown saves this season (25 compared to 15). Take Chicago (8*). |
|||||||
09-09-23 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -137 | 3-2 | Loss | -137 | 17 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Arizona at 2:20 pm et on Saturday. The Diamondbacks have closed the gap on the Cubs in the N.L. Wild Card race, winning three straight games including two in a row to open this series at Wrigley Field. I expect the Cubs to bounce back on Saturday, however, as they send Justin Steele to the hill against Merrill Kelly. Steele has been on the mound for an incredible nine straight Cubs victories. A 20-win campaign is well within his sights at this point and I look for him to take another step toward that goal on Saturday. Note that Steele has tossed 14 shutout innings over his last two starts, striking out 20 and walking only three along the way. Merrill Kelly is coming off a lights out performance of his own, allowing one earned run over seven innings against the Rockies. He's also just one start removed from giving up seven earned runs on 12 hits over five innings against the Dodgers. Current Cubs hitters haven't seen a whole lot of Kelly, with the exception of former division rival Cody Bellinger who has two home runs in 22 at-bats against him. The two bullpens are virtually a wash in this matchup although the D'Backs have blown 15 saves on the road while the Cubs have just six blown saves at home. Take Chicago (8*). |
|||||||
09-07-23 | Tigers +150 v. Yankees | Top | 10-3 | Win | 150 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
Game of the Week. My selection is on Detroit over New York at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Yankees are suddenly one of the hottest teams in baseball, winners of five games in a row and eight of their last nine contests overall. I look for the Tigers to bring an end to their run on Thursday, however. Eduardo Rodriguez will take the ball for Detroit. After a rocky outing against the red hot Astros bats on August 26th, Rodriguez rebounded to hold the White Sox to just one earned run over 6 2/3 innings last time out. That performance lowered his road ERA and WHIP to 3.03 and 1.11 respectively on the season. Rodriguez is of course very familiar with the Yankees from his day with the division rival Red Sox. He's held up well against the Bronx Bombers, logging a 3.63 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 22 career starts against them, with his teams winning 12 of those games. Carlos Rodon will counter for New York. It's been a tough return from injury for the left-hander as he has managed to work beyond the fifth inning in only three of nine starts since returning in early July. While the Yankees did manage to win his last start by a 6-2 score in Houston, Rodon was once again average at best, allowing three hits and two earned runs while striking out only four and walking one in five frames. New York has only won two of his nine starts this season. The last time it won a Rodon start, it dropped a 5-2 decision against the Rays at home in his next trip to the hill. The Yankees bullpen has been lights out lately but I don't mind the matchup here with the Tigers 'pen having posted a 4.01 ERA and 1.33 WHIP while converting 20 saves and blowing 11 on the road this season. Take Detroit (10*). |
|||||||
09-06-23 | Mariners -160 v. Reds | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Mariners bullpen coughed it up in last night's 7-6 defeat. That hasn't been a common occurrence as Seattle's relief corps has been among the best in baseball this season, posting a 3.43 ERA and 1.27 WHIP with 40 saves converted and only 16 blown (entering last night's action). The M's 'pen has also logged well south of 500 innings on the campaign, leaving it in excellent shape down the stretch. Contrast that with the Reds bullpen which has logged a 4.02 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 548 2/3 innings (also entering last night's contest). Enough about the bullpens though, let's talk about the starting pitching matchup on Wednesday. Logan Gilbert will get the call for the Mariners. They dropped his last start in a heart-breaker against the Mets, losing 2-1 in Queens. Note that Seattle hasn't lost consecutive Gilbert starts since June 11th and 17th. Since then, they've gone 10-3 in his last 13 outings. Gilbert brings excellent form into this start having allowed just two earned runs in 13 2/3 innings over his last two outings, striking out 16 and walking only one along the way. Lyon Richardson will counter for Cincinnati. While he's enjoyed plenty of success at the minor league level this season, that hasn't translated to the majors. In three spot starts, Richardson has worked just 12 innings, recording a 7.76 FIP and 1.75 WHIP with 20-of-56 batters he's faced reaching base. The Mariners can certainly make you pay for putting runners on base as they are among the big league leaders in home runs with 184 on the season. They check in averaging just north of 5.0 runs per game on the road. Take Seattle (8*). |
|||||||
09-02-23 | Orioles -134 v. Diamondbacks | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore over Arizona at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The Diamondbacks took care of the Orioles by a 4-2 score last night to snap a three-game losing streak. I look for Baltimore to bounce back behind underrated starter Kyle Bradish on Saturday. Bradish has posted terrific numbers this season, logging a 3.45 FIP and 1.11 WHIP in 133 2/3 innings of work. Over his last three starts he has given up just 13 hits in 18 innings, striking out 23 and walking only three along the way. Rookie Slade Cecconi has pitched reasonably well for the Diamondbacks when called upon. He owns a sub-1.00 WHIP on the season but has worked only 21 innings. I can't help but feel regression is coming for the right-hander, noting he had posted a lofty 6.38 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 100+ innings of work at the Triple-A level earlier this season. Despite closing out last night's game, the D'Backs bullpen still owns a less than impressive 6.57 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over the last seven games. Take Baltimore (8*). |
|||||||
09-01-23 | Orioles -109 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 57 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Friday. While Orioles left-hander Cole Irvin has had a tough time staying healthy this season, when he's been right, he's been terrific. Irvin opened the campaign with a string of three consecutive poor outings. Since then, he's allowed one earned run or less in six of eight starts. Last time out, he made a few bad pitches on the way to allowing four earned runs against the Rockies but still hung in there for six innings in an eventual 5-4 victory. Baltimore checks in having won each of Irvin's last six trips to the hill. Here, he'll face a Diamondbacks team that is licking its wounds after a three-game sweep at the hands of the Dodgers (none of those games were close). They check in averaging just 4.4 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season and 4.5 runs per contest at Chase Field. In stark contrast, the Orioles have put up an average of 5.3 runs per game in posting a 41-24 road record. Zach Davies will get the start for Arizona. The D'Backs wasted a rare quality start from Davies last time out as he allowed just one earned run in five innings against the Reds but they dropped an 8-7 decision. Davies owns a disappointing 4.69 FIP and 1.60 WHIP this season. He's just one start removed from allowing nine earned runs in 3 2/3 innings and has given up at least six earned runs in three of his last seven outings. Not helping the D'Backs cause is the fact that their bullpen has logged a 6.57 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over the last seven games. Meanwhile, the O's 'pen has posted a collective 3.00 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Baltimore (10*). |
|||||||
08-29-23 | Reds +145 v. Giants | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday. The Giants cruised to a 4-1 victory to open this series last night, notching their second straight victory. I'm confident we'll see the Reds bounce back on Tuesday as they give Brandon Williamson the start against Alex Cobb. Williamson is coming off a terrific outing in Arizona as he tossed six shutout innings in an eventual 3-2 loss. In fact, the Reds have lost each of his last three starts - their longest such streak of the season - despite Williamson logging a 2.60 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over that stretch. We know what we're going to get from Giants starter Alex Cobb. He owns a 3.96 FIP and 1.38 WHIP on the season and far worse, a 7.20 ERA and 1.73 WHIP over his last three starts. The Giants bullpen didn't have to do much heavy lifting last night and that's probably a good thing as they entered that contest sporting a collective 4.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with two saves converted and three blown over their last seven games. Take Cincinnati (8*). |
|||||||
08-29-23 | Yankees v. Tigers -118 | 4-2 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over New York at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Yankees took the opener of this series last night but are still going nowhere as they wallow beneath the .500 mark on the season. Here, I look for the Tigers to bounce back as they hand the ball to underrated left-hander Tarik Skubal against Michael King. Skubal has logged a 1.92 FIP and 1.08 WHIP in 44 1/3 innings of work this season after posting an impressive 2.96 FIP and 1.16 WHIP in 117 1/23 frames last year. The Michael King starting experience hasn't worked out for the Yankees as they've dropped his two prevous starts this season and seven of his last eight starts overall going back to 2020. Neither bullpen has pitched particularly well lately. As is often the case, the Yankees bullpen is being priced in as an advantage but I don't believe the gap is as wide as most believe (note the Tigers have converted 32 saves while blowing only 18 this season). Take Detroit (8*). |
|||||||
08-28-23 | Reds +105 v. Giants | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
National League Game of the Week. My selection is on Cincinnati over San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. The Reds managed to secure just one win in a four-game series in Arizona but I look for them to bounce back as they head to San Francisco on Monday. Andrew Abbott will take the ball for Cincinnati. He's enjoyed a fine rookie campaign having logged a 4.01 FIP and 1.17 WHIP in 85 1/3 innings of work. While walks have been an issue at times, he's made up for it by striking out just shy of 10 batters per nine innings and also giving up just north of seven hits per nine innings. Note that Abbott has yet to hit a batter or throw a wild pitch this season. His counterpart on Monday will be fellow rookie Kyle Harrison, who will be making his second big league start. Harrison's first outing went ok but he certainly wasn't dominant, recording a 5.97 FIP and 1.80 WHIP in 3 1/3 innings (small sample size, I know). At the minor league level this season (Rookie League and Triple-A) he has worked 67 2/3 innings, posting a 4.52 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. The Giants threw some key relievers at the Braves last night as they were desperately trying to hold on to avoid a series sweep (they succeeded). Note that San Francisco relievers have now logged just shy of 580 innings on the season and well north of 30 innings over the last seven games. Entering last night's contest they had recorded a collective 5.26 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over the last seven games. While the Reds bullpen has been taxed lately as well, it did enter Sunday's action sporting a 3.21 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over the last seven contests. On the season, Reds relievers have converted 27 saves while blowing only 10 on the road. Take Cincinnati (10*). |
|||||||
08-26-23 | Rangers -115 v. Twins | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Minnesota at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. We've seen a pair of high-scoring games to open this series with the Twins bats having their way with Rangers pitching. I do think that changes on Saturday as Texas hands the ball to Max Scherzer against Joe Ryan of the Twins. Scherzer is coming off a rough outing against the Brewers as he was chased in the fourth inning after giving up three earned runs in an eventual 6-2 loss. The ultimate competitor, I'm confident we'll see Mad Max bounce back here, noting he still owns a sparkling 2.55 FIP and 0.97 WHIP in four starts since joining the Rangers. Scherzer should be able to use his full arsenal against a Twins lineup that has had limited experience against him. Current Twins hitters are a combined 7-for-26 (.269) against Scherzer with only one extra-base hit (a home run from Kyle Farmer). Joe Ryan makes his return from a stint on the injured list for the Twins. To say he's owned Rangers hitters would be an understatement as they've gone just 2-for-31 (.065) with one extra-base hit (a home run from Marcus Siemian) off of him. Ryan struck out seven and gave up just one earned run over four innings in his minor league rehab start at Triple-A St. Paul. With all of that said, Ryan seemed to have a case of the 'yips' when we last saw him at the big league level as he was tagged for a whopping 17 home runs over his last seven starts, covering a span of just 32 innings. The Rangers bats have been rather dormant lately but certainly have the potential to break out at any time. Neither bullpen has been all that reliable lately. I do like backing teams coming off blowout results, however, as it generally leads to their key arms being rested, as is the case with the Rangers here. Mired in a long losing streak, they should be confident taking the field behind Scherzer on Saturday and I look for them to bust out of their slump. Take Texas (8*). |
|||||||
08-25-23 | Dodgers -115 v. Red Sox | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Red Sox salvaged a four-game series split in Houston thanks to a blowout victory yesterday. I'm not convinced they'll be able to notch a third straight win on Friday, however, as they welcome the Dodgers to Fenway Park. Los Angeles picked up a pair of victories in Cleveland yesterday. The Dodgers are in cruise control as they run away with the N.L. West Division title but that doesn't mean they've taken their foot off the gas as they continue to play winning baseball. Veteran Lance Lynn will get the call for Los Angeles on Friday. It's amazing what moving to a contending team can do for a pitcher as we've seen Lynn give up just four earned runs in four starts, spanning 25 innings of work since joining the Dodgers. His opponent on Friday will be Kutter Crawford. While he has had a fine season, he hasn't proven to be a good fit pitching here at Fenway Park, where he owns an inflated 8.00 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in seven starts. Behind Crawford is a Red Sox bullpen that has been severely overworked, logging 517 2/3 innings this season (entering yesterday's action) and having not had a day off since August 14th. The Dodgers 'pen entered Thursday's action sporting a collective 2.39 ERA and 0.80 WHIP over the last seven games. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
|||||||
08-25-23 | Cubs v. Pirates +105 | 1-2 | Win | 105 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Chicago at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Cubs are admittedly playing well right now, winners of five of their last six games including an extra innings victory to open this series last night. I like the Pirates chances of getting back at Chicago on Friday, however, as they send Mitch Keller to the hill against Kyle Hendricks. Keller had a rough stretch in July and early August but has since turned it around again, allowing only three earned runs while striking out 19 and walking just four in 12 innings of work over his last two starts. He owns a 3.53 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 12 home starts this season. Behind him is a Pirates bullpen that continues to pitch well, particularly here at home where it has converted 20 saves while blowing only seven this season. Kyle Hendricks was masterful over 6 1/3 innings last time out but that was against the Royals. Note that he has posted a 4.47 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in nine nighttime starts this year. Ke'Bryan Hayes, Andrew McCutchen and Bryan Reynolds are three current Pirates hitters that have homered off of Hendricks at least once. Take Pittsburgh (8*). |
|||||||
08-24-23 | Rangers +113 v. Twins | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Minnesota at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Rangers limp into Minnesota on the heels of six straight losses while the Twins are licking their wounds following a two-game sweep at the hands of the Brewers in Milwaukee. Here, I like Texas to bounce back as it sends Andrew Heaney to the mound against Pablo Lopez. Heaney put together consecutive solid outings to start the month before struggling in his last two starts. He'll be happy to be facing the Twins, noting he owns a perfect 4-0 team record in four career starts against them, logging a 2.38 ERA and 0.79 WHIP along the way. Current Twins hitters are a combined 20-for-84 (.238) against the veteran left-hander with no home runs and only seven extra-base hits (all doubles). Pablo Lopez has been terrific for the Twins lately. In fact, he's allowed just one earned run over his last four starts, covering a span of 25 innings of work. No Rangers batter has seen Lopez more than four times but Adolis Garcia is 2-for-3 with a home run off of him. My bigger concern for the Twins here is their bullpen. They got stretched thin in Milwaukee thanks to yesterday's extra innings affair. Note that their relief corps entered yesterday's contest sporting a collective 5.87 ERA and 1.70 WHIP over the last seven games and didn't do anything to help their cause in that extra innings defeat. Meanwhile, the Rangers were idle on Wednesday. Take Texas (8*). |
|||||||
08-23-23 | Royals -120 v. A's | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
American League Game of the Week. My selection is on Kansas City over Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Wednesday. The A's have taken the first two games of this series but I'm confident we'll see the Royals answer back on Wednesday afternoon. Cole Ragans has quietly pitched well for Kansas City with the Royals splitting his four starts since being inserted into the rotation earlier this month. On the season, Ragans owns an impressive 2.26 FIP in 28 2/3 innings of work. While he has struggled in two previous outings against Oakland (both last season), current A's hitters haven't done much damage against him going a combined 3-for-20 at the dish. Adrian Martinez will get a spot start for Oakland - his first of the season. He was awful last year, posting a 5.35 FIP and 1.53 WHIP in 12 starts. In 32 1/3 relief innings this season, Martinez has logged a 4.44 FIP and 1.42 WHIP. Neither bullpen has been all that sharp lately but I do have more faith in the Royals relief corps, which has combined to convert 13 saves while blowing only seven on the road this season. Contrast that with the A's 'pen, which has blown 12 saves compared to just 11 converted at home. Take Kansas City (10*). |
|||||||
08-22-23 | Nationals +165 v. Yankees | 2-1 | Win | 165 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington over New York at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. This is quickly becoming a lost season for the Yankees as they've lost nine games in a row to fall out of contention in the American League and last place in the A.L. East. While a home series with the Nationals would usually provide some relief, the fact is Washington is playing much better baseball lately and is certainly no 'easy out'. The Nats have won seven of their last nine games overall and will hand the ball to Josiah Gray on Tuesday. Remember, Gray was selected to the National League All-Star team earlier this season. While he hasn't exactly posted All-Star caliber numbers lately, I do think he's capable of rising to the occasion following a string of rocky outings. In 14 road starts this season, the right-hander has logged a terrific 2.82 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. That's world's better than what we've seen from Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodon. Since returning from a long stint on the injured list, Rodon has posted a 7.38 FIP and 1.52 WHIP in six starts. New York has managed to win just one of his six outings to date. While the Yankees bullpen has certainly been superior to that of the Nationals this season, we're still talking about an overworked relief corps that is approaching 480 innings pitched on the campaign. Lately, the Yanks 'pen has been anything but invincible, recording a collective 3.98 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over the last seven games. Take Washington (8*). |
|||||||
08-22-23 | Cubs v. Tigers +110 | 6-8 | Win | 110 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over Chicago at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Cubs have been giving Drew Smyly minimal turns in the rotation lately, and for good reason. The veteran left-hander hasn't had a productive start since mid-June, allowing 31 earned runs over his last six outings, covering a span of just 27 innings of work. Over that stretch, the Cubs won just one of Smyly's starts and that was in a game where they produced 16 runs against the Reds. Rookie Reese Olson has had an up-and-down start to his big league career. He allowed four earned runs in just 2 2/3 innings against the Twins last time out. Note that was his second straight start against Minnesota and in his previous one he tossed six shutout innings. After dropping Olson's first two starts, the Tigers have now gone 5-4 over his last nine trips to the hill. Neither bullpen has been all that reliable lately and are virtually a wash on the season. Take Detroit (8*). |
|||||||
08-20-23 | Mets v. Cardinals -141 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over New York at 2:15 pm et on Sunday. The Mets have had their way with the Cardinals so far in this series but I look for St. Louis to answer back in Sunday's series-finale. Carlos Carrasco will take the ball for New York. He's having a disastrous campaign having posted a 5.83 FIP and 1.63 WHIP in 18 starts. Note that he's faced the Cardinals twice since the start of last season, allowing a whopping 12 earned runs in just 6 2/3 innings of work with the Mets dropping both of those contests. Dakota Hudson will get the start for the Cards. He's guided St. Louis to wins in all three of his starts this season and six in a row going back to last year. Note that he's worked at least into the seventh inning in two of his three trips to the hill this season. The bullpens are virtually a wash on the season although the Mets relief corps has admittedly performed better lately (only marginally). Given how lopsided this series has been, the majority of the Cards key bullpen arms remain rested. Take St. Louis (8*). |
|||||||
08-20-23 | Red Sox v. Yankees -108 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
Division Game of the Week. My selection is on New York over Boston at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. The Yankees are sliding right now, fresh off another lopsided defeat at the hands of the rival Red Sox yesterday. I do look for them to salvage the finale of this series on Sunday, however. Josh Winckowski will get a spot start for Boston. He allowed a whopping 10.9 hits per nine innings during his rookie year last season (in 70 1/3 innings pitched) and is on track to post a similar number this year (10.2 hits allowed per nine innings in 64 2/3 innings pitched). Of the 278 batters he has faced this season, 94 have managed to reach base. His counterpart on Sunday will be Clarke Schmidt. He's coming off a dreadful outing against arguably the best offense in baseball in Atlanta. I'm willing to give the rookie a pass for that poor start as he had been pitching well for an extended stretch, allowing three earned runs or less in each of his previous 14 starts. The Yankees bullpen continues to do its job having logged a collective 2.88 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over the last seven games. I like the prospect of getting behind their relief corps here following consecutive lopsided games as most of their key arms remain rested. Take New York (10*). |
|||||||
08-18-23 | Orioles -169 v. A's | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Friday. The Orioles are licking their wounds after suffering consecutive losses in San Diego but after a day off on Thursday I look for them to 'get right' in their series-opener in Oakland on Friday. Kyle Gibson was awful for the O's in his most recent trip to the hill, allowing nine earned runs in 5 2/3 innings against the Mariners. Credit Gibson for eating as many innings as he did on that night. Keep in mind, he had been pitching well, working at least six innings in four straight starts while allowing just nine earned runs in 25 frames of work. A start against the A's would appear to be a soft landing for the veteran right-hander, noting he owns a career 6-3 record with a 3.80 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 11 previous outings against them. Luis Medina will take the ball for Oakland. He's been reliable as far as staying healthy and taking his regular turn in the rotation since late April but his results have been mixed. Medina checks in sporting a 4.84 FIP and 1.53 WHIP. He puts a ton of runners on base having allowed 132-of-375 batters to reach this season and is precisely the type of pitcher the O's lineup tends to feast on. Behind Medina is an A's bullpen that has logged a 5.26 ERA and 1.95 WHIP over the last seven games and has converted only 20 saves while blowing 23 this season. The O's 'pen on the other hand has recorded a collective 2.78 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over the last seven contests and has converted 39 saves while blowing 23 on the season. Take Baltimore (8*). |
|||||||
08-18-23 | Blue Jays -145 v. Reds | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -145 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Toronto over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Friday. While the Reds are coming off a win over the Guardians to split their two-game series on Wednesday, they're still just 4-10 over their last 14 games and will give Brett Kennedy a spot start out of necessity only on Friday. Kennedy has made just one start previously this season and while it was a win, it came on the road against the Nationals. I don't believe he'll prove to be a good fit here at Great American Ballpark and certainly not in this particular matchup. Note that Kennedy has logged a 3.52 FIP and 1.30 WHIP in 64 innings pitched at Triple-A Louisville this season. Jose Berrios will counter for Toronto. While he did struggle against the Cubs in his most recent start, he has enjoyed a bounce-back season overall, posting a 4.00 FIP and 1.22 WHIP in 24 starts. Behind Berrios is a Blue Jays bullpen that welcomed back closer Jordan Romano earlier this week and has recorded a collective 1.85 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over the last seven games. Over that same stretch, the Reds have managed to convert just one save while blowing three. Take Toronto (10*). |
|||||||
08-16-23 | Phillies +132 v. Blue Jays | 9-4 | Win | 132 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Blue Jays eked out a 2-1 victory in the opener of this brief two-game series last night. I look for the Phillies to answer back on Wednesday. Philadelphia will give Aaron Nola the start as he comes off a terrific outing against the Nationals last time out (5 IP, 1 ER). Things haven't always gone well for the right-hander this season but he's hung tough to the tune of a 4.21 FIP and 1.14 WHIP. Remember, he finished fourth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting last year - the third time in the last five seasons he finished top-seven in that category. Kevin Gausman will counter for Toronto. He has faced the Phillies three times since 2021 and hasn't allowed a single earned run in any of those outings (18 IP). That doesn't tell the whole story, however. A number of current Phillies hitters have had considerable success against Gausman. Bryce Harper is 9-of-21 with a home run, Kyle Schwarber is 3-of-10 with all three of those hits being home runs, Trea Turner is 8-of-24 with three extra-base hits and Nick Castellanos is 7-of-24 with two home runs and two doubles. While the Blue Jays do appear to hold the edge in terms of the two bullpens, I don't mind backing a Phillies relief corps that has converted 21 saves while blowing only seven on the road this season. While Philadelphia has now lost three games in a row, it's worth noting that it has dropped four or more consecutive games just once going all the way back to June 3rd. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
|||||||
08-13-23 | Rangers v. Giants -128 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on San Francisco over Texas at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Rangers have taken the first two games of this series, just as they did earlier this week in Oakland before getting shut out in the finale. While they're playing exceptionally well, I expect them to fail to close out the series sweep again here. Dane Dunning will get the start for Texas. He's not enjoying his best stretch of the season by any means, having allowed 4, 2, 5, 3, 1 and 3 earned runs over his last six outings. Note that while his overall numbers are solid this season, he has struggled in two particular situations - in day games and interleague matchups. Dunning owns a 4.83 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in six afternoon starts and a 5.22 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in six interleague outings. His counterpart on Sunday will be Giants ace Logan Webb. He finished 11th in N.L. Cy Young Award voting last season and his numbers have been right on par this year with a 3.29 FIP and 1.09 WHIP. He's worked at least into the sixth inning in six of his last seven starts, allowing two earned runs or less in five of those outings. He should be happy to be facing the Rangers, noting that he's been on the mound for 9-2 and 4-2 victories in his two previous starts against them. While the Rangers bullpen owns an advantage in terms of recent form, the Giants relief corps has been the better unit overall this season, logging a collective 3.64 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with a whopping 42 saves converted compared to only 19 blown. Take San Francisco (10*). |
|||||||
08-10-23 | Twins -145 v. Tigers | 0-3 | Loss | -145 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Detroit at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. The Tigers have taken the last two games in this series but I look for them to come up empty in Thursday's series finale. Minnesota will hand the ball to Kenta Maeda as it looks to snap its brief two-game slide. Maeda has quietly been one of the best pitchers in baseball over his last few starts, recording a 2.08 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. He's certainly been at his best on the road this season, logging a 3.16 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. His counterpart on Thursday will be rookie Reese Olson. Olson actually turned in his best outing of the season against these same Twins back in June but I think he'll be hard-pressed to repeat that performance here. He has seemingly hit the wall lately, allowing 13 earned runs over his last three starts, covering a span of 16 innings. With not much separating the two bullpens in this matchup, we'll go with the Twins and their starting pitching edge on Thursday. Take Minnesota (8*). |
|||||||
08-09-23 | Padres -115 v. Mariners | 1-6 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Mariners took the opener of this series by a 2-0 score last night as starter Logan Gilbert tossed a one-hit gem over seven innings. I look for the Padres to answer back on Wednesday as they hand the ball to Yu Darvish against rookie Emerson Hancock, who will be making his first start above Double-A ball for the Mariners. Darvish hasn't posted eye-popping numbers this season, logging a 4.10 FIP and 1.25 WHIP in 114 1/3 innings of work. With that being said, he has generally been pitching well lately, sandwiching four solid outings around a rocky home start against the Pirates. The veteran right-hander checks in having allowed two earned runs or less in four of his last five trips to the hill, lasting at least six innings in four of those five outings as well. He's made two recent starts against the Mariners (one in 2021 and one in 2022), allowing just one earned run over 15 innings of work. Emerson Hancock has been fast-tracked to the Mariners starting rotation out of necessity only after impressive rookie Bryan Woo was put on the I.L. Hancock's results at Double-A Arkansas have been a bit of a mixed-bag this year as he has posted a 4.32 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Note that 128 of the 411 (31.1%) batters has has faced have managed to reach base. The Mariners bullpen does hold the edge in terms of recent form but it's worth noting that the Padres relief corps has mostly been getting called into action in mop-up duty lately (three of their four losses over their last five games have come by five runs or more). As a whole this season, Seattle's 'pen has been only marginally better (3.51 ERA and 1.26 WHIP compared to 3.93 ERA and 1.28 WHIP entering last night's action). Finally, we'll note that the Mariners are in uncharted territory, so to speak, having won six games in a row. Their previous season-long winning streak lasted only four games. The Padres have lost three straight contests. They haven't dropped more than three games in a row since a six-game skid from June 24th to 30th. Take San Diego (8*). |
|||||||
08-09-23 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +120 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Year. My selection is on Arizona over Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Dodgers made a big lead stand up, just barely, in last night's 5-4 victory to open this brief two-game series in the desert. The Diamondbacks have picked a bad time to go on a slide, losers of seven games in a row. They simply haven't been able to come up with the clutch hits when needed over that stretch with the majority of those recent losses coming down to one or two runs. Here, I look for them to finally bounce back with Merrill Kelly getting the start against Bobby Miller. Miller impressed in his first four starts with the Dodgers this season, allowing just two earned runs on 12 hits in 18 innings of work. Things haven't gone nearly as smoothly since then, however, as he has yielded 28 earned runs over his last eight outings covering a span of 40 1/3 innings. After lasting exactly six innings in three of his first four big league starts, Miller has failed to make it through six frames in seven of his last eight outings. Merrill Kelly has made three starts since returning from a blood clot in his calf and has generally pitched well, yielding six earned runs in 17 innings. His most recent start might have been his best since returning as he struck out nine Twins batters over six innings, allowing just two solo home runs along the way. While his career 0-10 record against the Dodgers jumps off the page, it's worth noting that the D'Backs did secure a 2-1 victory with Kelly starting in Los Angeles earlier this season, snapping a streak of 10 straight Kelly starts against the Dodgers in which Arizona lost. The bullpen edge goes to the Dodgers in this matchup but the gap is not as wide as you might think. I do like the fact that the D'Backs relief corps has yet to reach 400 innings pitched this season. The Dodgers 'pen entered last night's action having logged 28 innings over the last seven games and tacked on another three frames in that contest. Note that Los Angeles hasn't had an off day since July 31st while Arizona was idle on Monday. Take Arizona (10*). |
|||||||
08-08-23 | Yankees -145 v. White Sox | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
American League Game of the Year. My selection is on New York over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Yankees were stymied by White Sox ace Dylan Cease in the opener of this series last night, suffering a 5-1 defeat - their second straight loss. The White Sox have now won three games in a row on the heels of a five-game losing streak. I look for that run to end on Tuesday. Clarke Schmidt will take the ball for the visiting Yankees. He got off to a miserable start this season after pitching well predominantly out of the bullpen in his rookie campaign a year ago. The good news is, he's turned it around over the last couple of months and has proven to be an effective starter for the Yanks, lowering his FIP to 4.33 and his WHIP to 1.30. I do think we'll continue to see some positive regression in terms of his hits and home runs allowed, noting he gave up 2.1 fewer hits per nine innings and 0.5 fewer home runs per nine innings last year (albeit with a smaller sample size). Behind Schmidt is a Yankees bullpen that entered this series sporting a collective 2.23 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over the last seven games and has converted 14 saves while blowing only five on the road this season. That's in stark contrast to the White Sox 'pen, which entered last night's action with just 10 saves converted and 13 blown at home this season, logging a collective 4.83 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Chicago will give Touki Toussaint another turn in the starting rotation on Tuesday. His results have been mixed. Case in point, he struck out nine Rangers opposing Max Scherzer last time out but also gave up four earned runs on five hits, two home runs and four walks over 5 1/3 innings. Toussaint has made it through the sixth inning just once in six starts this season. Take New York (10*). |
|||||||
08-08-23 | Twins v. Tigers +106 | 0-6 | Win | 106 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over Minnesota at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Twins delivered a lopsided 9-3 victory to open this series last night as they notched their fifth straight win. The Tigers haven't dropped consecutive games against Minnesota since last year, holding their own over the last nine meetings in this series. I look for them to bounce back on Tuesday. Sonny Gray will get the start for Minnesota. He continues to pitch well with a sub-3.00 FIP on the season but he's been anything but untouchable, noting that he has given up 18 earned runs over his last five starts covering a span of 30 2/3 innings of work. The Tigers have already seen Gray once this season, chasing him after four innings in an 8-4 victory back on June 15th. Eduardo Rodriguez will counter for Detroit on Tuesday. After struggling through his first two starts this season, Rodriguez has now held 11 of his last 14 opponents to two earned runs or less. He checks in with a 3.27 ERA and 1.06 WHIP at home this season with the Tigers winning four of his seven starts at Comerica Park. While the Twins bullpen holds a slight edge in terms of current form there's not much separating the two relief corps this season. If anything, the Twins have had a tougher time closing out games with 26 saves converted and 21 blown compared to the Tigers 25 saves converted and 16 blown. Take Detroit (8*). |
|||||||
08-06-23 | Nationals v. Reds -145 | 6-3 | Loss | -145 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cincinnati over Washington at 1:40 pm et on Sunday. The Reds have inexplicably fallen on hard times lately, dropping five straight games including the first two of this three-game set against the Nationals. They're hoping a fresh face can help turn their fortunes around as Lyon Richardson gets his first big league start on Sunday. Richardson has excelled at the minor league level, logging a 1.86 ERA while striking out 81 batters and walking only 23 in 58 innings of work this season. The Nationals bats have come alive in this series but this is still a team that averages only 4.2 runs per game against right-handed starting pitching this season. The fact that Washington will be sending Jake Irvin to the hill should help the Reds cause as well. They saw Irvin back on July 3rd, recording a 3-2 victory in Washington while producing three earned runs over six innings. Irvin wasn't really fooling anyone on that day as he struck out only three Reds batters. On the season, Irvin owns a 5.34 FIP and 1.43 WHIP. While the Nats are a perfect 3-0 in Irvin's last three outings, all three of those starts came at home. He has posted a 4.95 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in four road starts this season. Take Cincinnati (8*). |
|||||||
08-04-23 | Diamondbacks +117 v. Twins | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Diamondbacks are reeling off three straight losses against the division rival Giants in San Francisco. I look for them to bounce back on Friday as they hand the ball to Merrill Kelly against Bailey Ober of the Twins. Kelly has made two starts since returning from the injured list due to a blood clot in his calf. His first outing went smoothly but he ran into some trouble early before settling in against the Mariners last time out. All told, Kelly has recorded a 3.81 FIP and 1.16 WHIP this season. You would have to go back to early April to find the last time the D'Backs lost consecutive Kelly starts, a fate they'll look to avoid here. Behind Kelly is an Arizona bullpen that has posted a collective 2.14 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over the last seven games. Bailey Ober has given up 11 earned runs in 16 innings over his last three outings. He does own a 3.76 FIP and 1.04 WHIP on the campaign but the Twins are just an even 5-5 in his 10 home starts. Minnesota's bullpen has recorded a collective 5.11 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over the last seven games and has converted just 11 saves while blowing 10 at home this season. Take Arizona (8*). |
|||||||
08-03-23 | Twins -136 v. Cardinals | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota over St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Thursday. These two teams have split the first two games of this series and I expect the Twins to bounce back from last night's lopsided defeat to take the finale on Thursday. Sonny Gray will take the ball for Minnesota. The All-Star is quietly enjoying a fine campaign having logged a 2.93 FIP and 1.27 WHIP. He's been efficient but hasn't been overly taxed in recent starts, working 6, 6, 5 2/3, 6 and 6 innings over his last six outings. Matthew Liberatore gets the call-up to make Thursday's start for the Cardinals. He's a good example of a starting pitcher that has managed to climb the minor league ranks but has never been able to translate that success over to the bigs. Last year, he logged a 5.02 FIP and 1.73 WHIP in 34 2/3 innings of work. With a similar sample size of 32 innings this season, Liberatore has arguably been worse, posting a 4.68 FIP and 1.84 WHIP. Neither bullpen has been overly reliable lately but the difference is, the Cards relief corps has been bad for the majority of the season, entering last night's action sporting a collective 4.48 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Take Minnesota (10*). |
|||||||
08-02-23 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -120 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto over Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Blue Jays are off to a rough start to this series. In fact, they've now lost three games in a row including an absolute beatdown in Hyun-Jin Ryu's return to the starting rotation last night. While I haven't always been high on Wednesday's starter Yusei Kikuchi, there's no denying he's pitched well this season and particularly of late. Kikuchi enters Wednesday's start having allowed just two earned runs over his last three outings, covering a span of 16 innings of work. Here at home, the Blue Jays have won six of his nine starts as Kikuchi has logged a solid 3.69 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. His counterpart on Wednesday, rookie Grayson Rodriguez, is coming off a fine outing of his own, shutting the Yankees out over 6 1/3 innings. It's not as if he had baffling stuff on that night as he recorded just four strikeouts along the way. Note that the Orioles bullpen has suffered some regression lately, posting a 1.57 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night's action). On the road this season, Baltimore has converted 18 saves but has also blown 14. Take Toronto (10*). |
|||||||
08-02-23 | Rays v. Yankees -105 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. Yankees losses have been few and far between with ace Gerrit Cole on the mound this season. They've only lost consecutive starts of his twice on the campaign - a fate they'll look to avoid after dropping a 1-0 decision against Baltimore in his most recent outing. Cole checks in sporting terrific numbers having logged a 3.25 FIP and 1.05 WHIP on the season. Over his last three starts, Cole sports a 1.40 ERA and 0.62 WHIP. The Rays will counter with their own ace in Shane McClanahan. He hasn't looked quite the same since returning from injury, recording a solid 3.34 ERA but a lofty 1.33 WHIP (by his own standards) over his last three starts. Since striking out seven or more batters in five of six starts during a stretch back in May, McClanahan has topped out at six K's over his last eight outings, reaching that number only twice along the way. With the bullpens more or less a wash (in fact the Yankees bullpen has performed better than that of the Rays lately), we'll confidently back the Yankees to avoid a fourth straight defeat here. Take New York (8*). |
|||||||
08-01-23 | Red Sox +110 v. Mariners | 6-4 | Win | 110 | 16 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston over Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Red Sox have now lost three games in a row but all three of those contests could have gone either way. I say that even as they dropped last night's game by a 6-2 score. That was a 1-1 tie until the Mariners broke things open in the eighth inning. Here, I look for Boston to bounce back behind Brayan Bello, who has quietly been one of their steadiest starters this season. Bello checks in with a 4.43 FIP and 1.21 WHIP on the campaign. I like how he's held his composure on the road, recording a 1.14 WHIP in 41 1/3 innings of work. His lone previous outing against the Mariners was a good one as he held them to one earned run over five innings in a 12-3 victory back on May 17th. Rookie Bryce Miller has lost his way over his last several starts for the Mariners. Note that he worked at least six innings in seven of his first nine starts this season but has now failed to last six frames in five straight outings. I'm willing to chalk up the Mariners late inning explosion against the Red Sox bullpen as an anomaly. Boston was down a number of key relief arms in that contest but should be back on track on Tuesday thanks to Nick Pivetta's lengthy start last night. Note that prior to last night's game, the Sox 'pen had logged a 1.96 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Boston (8*). |
|||||||
08-01-23 | Mets -144 v. Royals | 6-7 | Loss | -144 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Mets were sellers at the trade deadline so you could say the pressure is off now in what amounts to another lost season in Queens. I do think we see the Mets bounce back on Tuesday as they open a series in Kansas City. Jose Quintana will take the ball for New York. Few expected much from the veteran when he joined the starting rotation in late July but he has picked up right where he left off last season, allowing just four earned runs in 11 innings of work. In fact, you would have to go back 18 starts to find the last time Quintana allowed more than two earned runs in a start. Zack Greinke has been a disaster for the Royals this year. He owns a 5.06 FIP in 101 2/3 innings of work and things certainly haven't gotten any better lately as he has been tagged for 12 earned runs over his last three outings, covering a span of just 14 1/3 innings. The Mets bullpen has been worlds' better than that of the Royals over the last seven games and Kansas City's relief corps has combined to convert just five saves while blowing nine at home this season. Take New York (8*). |
|||||||
08-01-23 | Rays v. Yankees +106 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Yankees dropped their second straight game in lopsided fashion last night as they couldn't get anything going against Rays starter Tyler Glasnow. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday as they face Zach Eflin for the second time this season. Their first go-round against the right-hander saw them plate four earned runs over six innings but ultimately drop an 8-7 decision. That was in St. Petersburg. I still believe Yankees starter Carlos Rodon is a 'buy-on' pitcher down the stretch, even though he's struggled mightily with his command since returning to the starting rotation. The good news is, the Yankees did manage to win his most recent start as he worked around three walks to allow just one earned run over 5 2/3 innings in a 3-1 victory over the Mets. In two home starts this season, Rodon has yielded only three earned runs in 11 innings. That's in stark contrast to Eflin's road numbers as he has logged a 5.36 ERA and 1.28 WHIP away from home. Take New York (8*). |
|||||||
07-30-23 | Mariners v. Diamondbacks +102 | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. The Diamondbacks evened this series at a game apiece with a come-from-behind 4-3 victory last night and I look for them to take the finale on Sunday as well. Luis Castillo has been somewhat snake-bitten for the Mariners, going winless in his last three starts despite pitching well. Run support has been an issue and I suspect it will be again on Sunday. On the flip side, the D'Backs have feasted on right-handed starting pitching this season, averaging 5.1 runs per game. Arizona will hand the ball to Merrill Kelly as he makes his second start since returning from the I.L. with a blood clot in his calf. He looked no worse for wear in his first outing back, allowing just one earned run on four hits over six innings against the Cardinals. On the season, he owns a 3.78 FIP and 1.13 WHIP. With last night's loss, the Mariners fell to 24-26 on the road this season. This is a key spot for the D'Backs as they'll hit the road for a seven-game trek following this matinee affair. Take Arizona (8*). |
|||||||
07-28-23 | Angels +172 v. Blue Jays | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Toronto at 7:05 pm et on Friday. It's going to take quite an effort to take down the Angels right now as they're playing about as well as any team in baseball, winners of eight of their last nine games overall. Newly-acquired Lucas Giolito will make his debut for Los Angeles on Friday. You have to imagine he's extremely pleased to get out of Chicago where the White Sox have been an absolute disaster. Giolito won't have to be an ace for the Halos but he does join the team pitching reasonably well, having allowed two earned runs or less in three of his last four outings. Behind Giolito is an Angels bullpen that has been lights out lately, logging a collective 2.05 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over the last seven games. Kevin Gausman will counter for Toronto on Friday. There's no denying he's pitched well this season, for the most part at least. He has had a tendency to have breakdowns, as we saw in his most recent start when he was tagged for four home runs against the Mariners. I simply feel he's going to have his hands full with an Angels lineup that has suddenly clicked, producing seven or more runs in seven of their last 11 games. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays bullpen has fallen on hard times, blowing four saves while converting only two over the last seven games alone, posting a collective 4.97 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over that stretch. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
|||||||
07-25-23 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks -134 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
N.L. Game of the Week. My selection is on Arizona over St. Louis at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Cardinals snapped their three-game losing streak, taking the opener of this series in a 10-6 slugfest last night. That was a tough spot for the Diamondbacks as they limped home following a three-game sweep at the hands of the Reds, which came at the end of a long nine-game road trip that also took them to Toronto and Atlanta. While they'll be right back at it on Tuesday, I do expect the D'Backs to get a lift from the expected return of starter Merrill Kelly after he spent a month on the I.L. due to a blood clot in his leg. Kelly himself indicated that it was only a minor speedbump as he was able to continue to throw from day one. He dealt with a far more serious blood clot that led to the removal of a rib back in 2020. Of course, the right-hander is having a career year by most accounts, logging a 3.85 FIP and 1.14 WHIP while allowing a career-low 6.7 hits per nine innings and striking out a career high 9.3 batters per nine innings. Arizona's bullpen has struggled lately but I still feel this is a relief corps in fine shape down the stretch having worked only 353 2/3 innings collectively (entering last night's action) this season. Steven Matz will counter for St. Louis. He was sharp in his most recent outing against the Cubs last Thursday but will now be starting on short rest (four days) for a second straight turn in the rotation. On the season, Matz owns a 4.12 FIP and 1.47 WHIP, yielding 10.0 hits per nine innings. The Cards bullpen has been virtually on par with that of the D'Backs this season. Of note, they've had a tough time closing out games, blowing 20 saves including 11 on the road (compared to 14 saves converted). It's also worth mentioning that St. Louis hasn't had a day off since the All-Star break and checks in 1-5 after scoring double-digit runs in its previous game this season. Take Arizona (10*). |
|||||||
07-24-23 | Mariners v. Twins +104 | 3-4 | Win | 104 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota over Seattle at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Mariners have managed to win three of their last four games including taking two of three against the Blue Jays over the weekend. I'm not convinced the needle is pointing up for Seattle right now, however. The Twins are coming off three-game sweep of the White Sox. They'll give Kenta Maeda the start on Monday while the Mariners hand the ball to Luis Castillo. Maeda has settled in nicely since returning from the injured list in late June, allowing two earned runs or less in four of his last five starts. He was sharp against the Mariners last week as he held them to two earned runs on three hits while striking out nine over 6 1/3 innings of work. His counterpart on Monday, Luis Castillo, has looked very ordinary lately, allowing 21 earned runs over 47 2/3 innings in his last eight starts. Castillo has been tagged for exactly two home runs in five of his last six starts. The Twins should be happy to see him noting that the right-hander owns a 6.88 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in four career starts against them. While the Twins bullpen has thrived with a very manageable workload (23 innings) over the last seven games, recording a 2.35 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, the Mariners relief corps has struggled, posting a collective 4.97 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in 25 1/3 innings over that same stretch. Take Minnesota (8*). |
|||||||
07-19-23 | Yankees -130 v. Angels | 3-7 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Los Angeles at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Yankees are suddenly sliding having lost three games in a row entering Wednesday's series-finale against the Angels in Anaheim. I do think they have the right starter on the mound to end their skid in Carlos Rodon. The left-hander has made two starts since returning from the I.L., with mixed results. I do think we saw progress from Rodon in his most recent outing as he struck out six in just five innings in Colorado after recording only two K's in 5 1/3 innings in his season debut at home against the Cubs. Rodon should be pleased to be pitching here in Anaheim, where he's made two career starts, allowing just four earned runs in 15 2/3 innings of work. The Angels check in just 9-17 against left-handed starting pitching this season. Chase Silseth will get a spot start for Los Angeles, giving Shohei Ohtani an extra day of rest before likely starting on Friday against Pittsburgh. Silseth has yet to prove he can succeed at the big league level, despite finding plenty of success in the minors. In 18 2/3 innings of work this season he has posted a 5.87 FIP and 1.61 WHIP. Last year, Silseth logged 28 2/3 innings, recording a very similar 5.97 FIP and 1.57 WHIP. While the Angels bullpen held up just fine last night, it entered that contest sporting a collective 8.91 ERA and 2.14 WHIP over the last seven contests. While Los Angeles has posted consecutive victories, it hasn't won three games in a row since June 11th to 13th. Meanwhile, the Yankees haven't dropped four straight contests since June 14th to 18th. Take New York (8*). |
|||||||
07-18-23 | Yankees -105 v. Angels | 1-5 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Angels prevailed in the opener of this series last night, handing the Yankees their second straight loss. I look for New York to bounce back on Tuesday as it sends Domingo German to the hill against Patrick Sandoval of the Angels. German is of course just two starts removed from tossing a perfect game in Oakland. After getting predictably roughed up in his next start against Baltimore, he rebounded to hold the Cubs to just one earned run on one hit over six innings on July 9th. On the season, German has been an interesting study with a 4.63 FIP but a 1.07 WHIP. Opposing hitters certainly aren't getting a great read on the right-hander having compiled just 6.9 hits per nine innings. It's been a much different story for Sandoval as he has allowed 9.5 hits per nine innings, leading to a 3.96 FIP and 1.47 WHIP. His walks per nine innings allowed are up while his strikeouts are down considerably compared to last year. Behind Sandoval is an Angels bullpen that has suffered considerable regression lately, entering last night's action sporting a lofty 9.90 ERA and 2.23 WHIP over the last seven games. The Yankees 'pen has been in poor form as well but still owns a collective 3.09 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 14 saves converted and only four blown on the road this season. Take New York (8*). |