Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
08-18-22 | A's v. Rangers -175 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas first five innings over Oakland at 2:05 pm et on Thursday. The A's have taken the last two games in this series (we won with Oakland +1.5 on Tuesday and the 'over' last night) but I look for the Rangers to answer back, at least early on in Thursday's series-finale. Zach Logue will get another turn in the rotation for the A's. He's struggled in his rookie campaign, posting a 5.33 FIP and 1.44 WHIP while giving up just north of 5.7 runs per nine innings. To make matters worse, he'll be facing a Rangers club that has feasted on left-handed starting pitching this season (averaging 5.1 runs per game compared to its season scoring average of 4.4 rpg) and will be seeing him for the second time after tagging him for seven hits and four earned runs including two home runs in just 2 1/3 innings back in late May. Note that Logue hasn't just struggled at the big league level this season as he also recorded a 6.29 ERA and 1.88 WHIP in 14 starts at AAA. He's in the A's rotation out of necessity only right now. Texas will counter with Dane Dunning. While he hasn't had as good of a season as he did last year, he's still been serviceable, recording a 4.10 FIP and 1.38 WHIP while allowing 4.35 runs per nine innings. He gives up 1.1 fewer hits and 0.9 fewer home runs per nine innings in comparison with Logue this season. While Dunning didn't have his best stuff in his lone previous start against the A's this season, he still kept his team in the game, allowing just two earned runs over 4 2/3 innings in a start in Oakland back in late May. With the two bullpens virtually a wash in terms of recent form and overall away/home numbers this season, we'll look to isolate A's starter Logue and back the Rangers in the first five innings only in this one. Take Texas first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
08-17-22 | Mets -142 v. Braves | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York first five innings over Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Wednesday. Credit Braves’ recent acquisition Jake Odorizzi as he’s actually pitched reasonably well this season, splitting time between Houston and Atlanta. However, his numbers don’t hold a candle to those of his counterpart on Wednesday, Max Scherzer of the Mets. Scherzer checks in with a 2.40 FIP and 0.92 WHIP this season, yielding only 2.1 runs per nine innings. He’s allowed 1.9 fewer hits and 1.3 fewer walks while striking out 4.2 more batters per nine innings in comparison with Odorizzi this season. He’s already baffled the Braves twice this season, allowing only one earned run while striking out 20 across 14 innings in two starts. We’ll play the first five innings only in this one as Atlanta does have an edge in terms of the two bullpens. The Braves relief corps entered last night’s action sporting a collective 1.73 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with five saves converted and only one blown over the last seven games. We’ll look to avoid that potential poor later innings matchup here. Take New York first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
08-17-22 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -160 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
A.L. Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Toronto first five innings over Baltimore at 3:05 pm et on Wednesday. |
|||||||
08-17-22 | Phillies -162 v. Reds | 0-1 | Loss | -162 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Cincinnati at 12:35 pm et on Wednesday. We’ll back the visiting Phillies in the finale of this three-game series in Cincinnati on Wednesday. Philadelphia will hand the ball to Ranger Suarez, who is coming off one of his best outings of the season as he held the Mets to just one earned run over seven innings in a 2-1 victory in New York last week. Suarez has lowered his FIP to 3.81 and his WHIP to 1.32 and is allowing just north of 4.1 runs per nine innings. Behind Suarez is a Phillies bullpen that has been among the best in baseball lately, entering last night’s action with a sparkling 0.56 ERA and 0.75 WHIP over the last seven games. Rookie Nick Lodolo will get another turn in the rotation for the Reds. He’s gone through plenty of growing pains here in 2022, posting a 4.42 FIP and 1.66 WHIP while yielding 5.1 runs per nine innings. Note that Lodolo allows 1.8 more hits, 0.5 more home runs and 1.2 more walks per nine innings compared to Suarez this season. The Reds bullpen has had a tough time all season, recording a collective 4.94 ERA and 1.43 WHIP with only eight saves converted and eight blown here at home, entering last night’s action. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
|||||||
08-16-22 | Astros -118 v. White Sox | 3-4 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston first five innings over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. We obviously don't want to make a habit of fading one of the hottest starting pitchers in baseball in Dylan Cease of the White Sox, but in this case I'll make an exception as we're backing one of the best to every do it in Justin Verlander and an Astros team coming off a 4-2 loss in the opener of this series last night. We'll do so in the first five innings only as Houston's bullpen has been a mess lately, posting a collective 6.52 ERA and 1.91 WHIP over the last seven games. Verlander has essentially had just two bad starts this season and one of them came against tonight's opponent, the White Sox back on June 18th. Needless to say he'll be eager to make amends here. Note that Verlander's other 'bad' outing this season came against the Mariners on May 27th. Since then, he's faced them three times and has generally made life miserable for them, allowing just three earned runs while striking out 26 in 21 1/2 innings (the Astros won all three games). Verlander checks in with a 2.91 FIP and 0.86 WHIP while allowing only 2.38 runs per nine innings this season. Cease has of course been lights out as well although he does give up 0.28 more runs and 2.2 more walks per nine innings compared to Verlander (I realize we're grasping at straws a bit when it comes to finding negatives in Cease's game). I'm confident the Astros can scratch together just enough offense against the White Sox right-hander early to hold the lead after five frames. Take Houston first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
08-16-22 | Cubs -155 v. Nationals | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. We've seen this price come down a bit since opening, likely due to some hesitancy from bettors with the Cubs having blown leads in losing their last two games. I'm confident they'll bounce back here, however. Justin Steele will get the start for Chicago. He pitched well in his most recent outing against these same Nationals last week, allowing two earned runs over six innings in an eventual 4-2 victory. Steele owns a solid 3.28 FIP and 1.41 WHIP while allowing 4.51 runs per nine innings this season. That last number is somewhat concerning but it looks Cy Young-like compared to that of his opponent tonight, Patrick Corbin. Corbin continues to be sent out every five days out of necessity only. He sports a 4.96 FIP and 1.82 WHIP while yielding a whopping 7.91 runs per nine innings this season. We're not talking about a small sample size either as he's logged 110 1/3 innings. Behind Corbin is a Nationals bullpen that held up alright last night but still owns a collective 4.87 ERA and 1.92 WHIP over the last seven games. For its part, the Cubs 'pen has posted a 3.45 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Chicago (8*). |
|||||||
08-15-22 | Dodgers -165 v. Brewers | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Dodgers saw their long winning streak come to an end with a 3-0 blanking in Kansas City yesterday (we won with the first five innings 'under'). I look for them to get right back on track with a red hot Julio Urias taking the ball on Monday. You would have to go back 11 starts to find the last time the Dodgers dropped a game with Urias starting. They're also 5-1 in his six career outings against the Brewers. Milwaukee checks in just 17-18, averaging 3.7 runs per game against left-handed starting pitching this season. Of course, Urias has been terrific again this year, posting a 3.49 FIP and 0.97 WHIP. While his counterpart on Monday, Freddy Peralta of the Brewers, does own a superior FIP (2.40), he has given up 0.4 more hits, 1.1 more walks and 1.36 more runs per nine innings compared to Urias. Home runs allowed have been the issue for Urias this season but he hasn't allowed a single long ball over his last four starts. The Dodgers bullpen behind Urias has been rock solid away from home this season, recording a collective 2.70 ERA and 1.06 WHIP while converting 12 saves and blowing only two (entering yesterday's action). Take Los Angeles (8*). |
|||||||
08-15-22 | Mets v. Braves -138 | 1-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta first five innings over New York at 7:20 pm et on Monday. I'll back the Braves in the first five innings in Monday's divisional showdown against the Mets, doing so as they have no considerable advantage with their bullpen in the later innings. I do think Atlanta has a significant edge early with standout rookie Spencer Strider taking the ball against veteran Carlos Carrasco of New York. Strider has posted a 1.97 FIP and 1.05 WHIP this season, yielding just north of 3.3 runs per nine innings. He'll certainly be up for this start after he turned in one of his worst outings of the season against these same Mets last time out. That start came on the road. Here at home, Strider has been lights out, posting a 2.20 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in six starts this season. Carrasco owns a 3.42 FIP and 1.28 WHIP on the campaign. Note that he has allowed 3.2 more hits and 0.4 more home runs per nine innings compared to Strider this season. The last time the Braves faced Carrasco here at home they reached him for five earned runs over five innings last October. Take Atlanta first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
08-15-22 | Cubs -134 v. Nationals | 4-5 | Loss | -134 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Washington at 7:05 pm et on Monday. We missed with the Cubs yesterday as they couldn't complete the four-game sweep of the Reds but I won't hesitate to go right back to the well with them on Monday as they hand the ball to Marcus Stroman, who finds himself in a quick 'revenge' spot against the Nationals. Stroman's last start didn't go particularly well and it came against these same Nationals last week. He allowed four earned runs over five innings in that 6-5 loss. He's still having a fine season, having recorded a 3.98 FIP and 1.16 WHIP. His 4.54 runs per nine innings allowed does leave a lot to be desired but I'm confident he can navigate a Nationals lineup that has averaged just 3.8 runs per game this season (better than he did last time out anyway). Interestingly, Stroman has been much sharper away from home this season, posting a 2.26 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in nine outings. Josiah Gray will counter for Washington. He sports a 5.60 FIP and 1.30 WHIP while yielding just shy of 4.9 runs per nine innings this season. Like Stroman, he has struggled pitching at home, posting a 6.75 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 10 starts at Nationals Park. The Washington bullpen behind Gray has been awful lately, and for much of the campaign. The Nats relief corps entered yesterday's contest with a 5.83 ERA and 1.88 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Chicago (8*). |
|||||||
08-15-22 | Phillies -170 v. Reds | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Monday. This one sets up nicely as a bounce-back spot for the Phillies off consecutive losses against the Mets over the weekend. We've been betting against Reds starter Mike Minor all season long and we won't hesitate to do so again here. Minor has had a disastrous campaign as he nears the likely end of his big league career. He checks in with a 6.75 FIP and 1.57 WHIP, allowing north of 6.8 runs per nine innings. Note that the Phillies have wore out left-handed starters this season, averaging 4.9 runs per game (compared to their season scoring average of 4.7 rpg). Behind Minor is a Reds bullpen that entered yesterday's action sporting a collective 5.15 ERA and 1.43 WHIP at home this season, converting only seven saves while blowing eight. Noah Syndergaard will take the ball for the visiting Phillies. He's made two starts since joining the club prior to the trade deadline and both resulted in team victories. That's despite the fact that he didn't really have his best stuff in either outing. For the season, Syndergaard has posted a 3.79 FIP and 1.28 WHIP while allowing 4.15 runs per nine innings - obviously vastly superior numbers to those of Minor. The Phillies bullpen has been lights out lately, recording a collective 1.45 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over the last seven games (entering yesterday's action). Take Philadelphia (9*). |
|||||||
08-14-22 | Cubs -130 v. Reds | 5-8 | Loss | -130 | 15 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Cincinnati at 1:40 pm et on Sunday. The series sweep is set up on a tee for the Cubs on Sunday as they hand the ball to Keegan Thompson against Justin Dunn of the Reds. Thompson is quietly having a fine campaign for the Cubs, recording a 4.04 FIP and 1.24 WHIP while allowing 3.91 runs per nine innings. Behind Thompson is a Chicago bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a collective 2.66 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over the last seven games. That relief corps hasn't been overworked either, logging just 23 2/3 innings over those previous seven contests. If you've followed my plays regularly over the last year-plus you know that we like to go against Reds starter (and former Mariner) Justin Dunn. He's only worked 4 2/3 innings at the big league level this season, posting a 6.98 FIP and 1.50 WHIP. Note that he struggled at the minor league level before getting the call-up, recording a 6.75 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in 28 innings of work. The Reds bullpen has been awful at home this season, entering last night's contest with a 5.09 ERA and 1.43 WHIP, converting only seven saves while blowing eight. Take Chicago (8*). |
|||||||
08-14-22 | Orioles v. Rays -152 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay first five innings over Baltimore at 1:40 pm et on Sunday. With no real advantage with the Rays bullpen over the Orioles' in the later innings in this one, we'll back Tampa Bay in the first five frames only as it sends Drew Rasmussen to the hill against Jordan Lyles of the O's. Lyles has been one of the weak links in an otherwise solid Baltimore starting rotation this season. He checks in with a 4.43 FIP and 1.44 WHIP, allowing 4.7 runs per nine innings. The Rays will be seeing him for the fourth time this season having already reached him for 11 earned runs in 13 1/3 innings. Rasmussen is an undervalued commodity in the Rays rotation. He sports a 3.54 FIP and 1.17 WHIP while holding the opposition to only 3.45 runs per nine innings. The Rays are a perfect 3-0 in his three previous starts against Baltimore as the right-hander has posted a 2.84 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in those three contests. Take Tampa Bay first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
08-13-22 | Phillies v. Mets -184 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The Phillies took the opener of this series last night but I look for the Mets to answer back with their ace Jacob deGrom on the hill on Saturday. Aaron Nola will take the ball for the Phillies. He's having a terrific season in his own right but he's not on the same level as deGrom. Philadelphia has won just five of his 11 road starts this season. The Phillies bullpen, while solid lately, has posted a collective 4.21 ERA and 1.42 WHIP on the road this season (entering last night's action). deGrom has made a triumphant return to the Mets rotation, posting a 1.25 FIP and 0.47 WHIP in 10 2/3 innings of work. You would have to go back nine deGrom home starts to find the last time the Mets lost a game with him on the mound here at Citi Field. Included in that stretch was a victory over these same Phillies last June. While the Mets bullpen ultimately allowed the winning run in extra innings last night, it did enter that contest with a collective 3.62 ERA and 1.22 WHIP at home this season. Take New York (8*). |
|||||||
08-12-22 | Phillies v. Mets -185 | 2-1 | Loss | -185 | 21 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York first five innings over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We’ll back the Mets in the first five innings only on Friday as they have a considerable starting pitching edge with Max Scherzer taking the ball against Ranger Suarez of the Phillies. Scherzer is obviously enjoying another Cy Young Award-worthy season having recorded a 2.45 FIP and 0.90 WHIP while giving up only 2.16 runs per nine innings. Note that Scherzer will be looking for revenge after giving up three earned runs on 10 hits over six innings the last time he faced the Phillies back on May 8th. Ranger Suarez is having a fine season but his numbers certainly don’t compare to those of Scherzer. He has allowed 2.5 more hits and 1.7 more walks per nine innings compared to Scherzer this season. He’s also giving up nearly twice the runs at 4.31 per nine innings. The reason we’re playing the first five innings only here is that the Phillies bullpen has actually been better than the Mets’ over the last seven games, entering yesterday’s action sporting a collective 2.30 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over that stretch. Take New York first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
08-11-22 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks -174 | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona first five innings over Pittsburgh at 3:40 pm et on Thursday. The fact that we're still able to back Merrill Kelly at a sub -200 price against an opponent like the Pirates tells me he's still being undervalued. Here, rather than support the D'Backs for the full game, we'll get behind them in the first five innings only as there's no real advantage with their bullpen in the later innings. JT Brubaker will get the call for the visiting Pirates. He owns a 3.77 FIP and 1.52 WHIP while allowing 5.23 runs per nine innings this season. Note that Arizona will be seeing him for the second time this season after tagging him for five earned runs in four innings back in early June. Brubaker has allowed 2.6 more hits, 0.4 more home runs and 1.0 more walks per nine innings in comparison with Kelly. The D'Backs emerging ace has recorded a 3.18 FIP and 1.13 WHIP while yielding only 2.99 runs per nine innings on the campaign. He's faced the Buccos twice in his career, allowing four earned runs over 12 innings of work. Take Arizona first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
08-11-22 | White Sox -170 v. Royals | 3-5 | Loss | -170 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Kansas City at 2:10 pm et on Thursday. We missed with the White Sox last night as they squandered a 3-1 lead in an eventual 8-3 loss. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them again on Thursday, however, as they send their ace Dylan Cease to the hill. Cease is obviously having a career year, having posted a 2.70 FIP and 1.16 WHIP while allowing only 2.71 runs per nine innings. While the White Sox bullpen coughed up the game last night, it still owns a solid 3.00 ERA and 1.15 WHIP on the road this season, converting 18 saves and blowing only seven. Veteran Zack Greinke will counter for the Royals. He continues to get knocked around having recorded a 4.42 FIP and 1.33 WHIP while giving up just shy of 4.9 runs per nine innings on the campaign. The Royals bullpen behind him owns a collective 4.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP at home this season. Take Chicago (8*). |
|||||||
08-10-22 | Cardinals -145 v. Rockies | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. We were concerned about a potential letdown from the Cardinals last night but backed them anyway and paid the price as they had their doors blown off by the Rockies. With that being said, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the visiting Cards again here. Jose Quintana will take the ball for St. Louis. He's enjoyed a terrific bounce-back season, posting a 3.27 FIP and 1.23 WHIP while allowing 3.63 runs per nine innings. Behind Quintana is a Cards bullpen that despite last night's poor performance still owns a 3.33 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over the last seven games. Kyle Freeland will counter for Colorado. He checks in with a 4.23 FIP and 1.36 WHIP this season, yielding just over 4.9 runs per nine innings. The Rockies bullpen behind him has struggled mightily of late, posting a 7.03 ERA and 1.85 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take St. Louis (8*). |
|||||||
08-10-22 | White Sox -130 v. Royals | 3-8 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. We'll continue to fade Royals starter Kris Bubic as he takes the ball against Johnny Cueto of the White Sox on Wednesday. Cueto has 'turned back the clock' this season, posting a solid 4.02 FIP and 1.19 WHIP while giving up just under 3.10 runs per nine innings. Behind the veteran right-hander is a White Sox bullpen that is in excellent form, having posted a collective 1.80 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over the last seven games. On the road this season, the White Sox 'pen owns a 2.80 ERA and 1.12 WHIP with 18 saves converted and only seven blown. Bubic sports a 4.92 FIP and 1.54 WHIP while allowing north of 5.8 runs per nine frames. Keep in mind, the White Sox average 0.3 runs per game above their season scoring average when facing left-handed starting pitching this season. The Royals bullpen has logged a 4.57 ERA and 1.53 WHIP at home this season and a 3.92 ERA and 1.40 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Chicago (9*). |
|||||||
08-10-22 | Braves -138 v. Red Sox | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta first five innings over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Braves got past the fading Red Sox last night and while I anticipate a similar result on Wednesday, rather than back them in the full game, we'll support them in the first five innings only here. Kyle Wright will take the ball for Atlanta. He's quietly having a terrific season, perhaps overshadowed by the exploits of Max Fried and standout rookie Spencer Strider. Wright checks in with a 3.75 FIP and 1.17 WHIP while allowing just north of 3.4 runs per nine innings. He'll be looking for revenge here after giving up six earned runs in just 4 2/3 innings in a start against Boston back in May. I'm willing to give him a mulligan for that poor outing based on his impressive performance overall this season. My concern with the Braves is their bullpen but we'll look to avoid that relief corps by playing the first five innings only. The Atlanta 'pen has posted a collective 5.18 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over the last seven games. Boston will give Nick Pivetta the start in this one. He owns a 4.16 FIP and 1.33 WHIP this season, yielding just over 4.5 runs per nine innings. Thanks to his previous days pitching for the Phillies in the N.L. East, the Braves will be seeing Pivetta for the sixth time since the start of 2019. He's given up at least four earned runs in four of his previous five starts against them. Take Atlanta first five innings (10*). |
|||||||
08-10-22 | Nationals v. Cubs -165 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Washington at 2:20 pm et on Wednesday. The Nationals evened this series at a game apiece with a 6-5 victory last night at Wrigley Field but I look for the Cubs to answer right back on Wednesday. Josiah Gray will take the ball for Washington. He checks in with a 5.72 FIP and 1.31 WHIP this season while allowing just north of 5.0 runs per nine innings. Behind Gray is an awful Nats bullpen that has posted a collective 6.59 ERA and 1.68 WHIP over the last seven games and has been generally awful on the road this season (5.56 ERA and 1.49 WHIP). Justin Steele will counter for the Cubs. The fact that he's a left-hander already gives him a leg up on the Nats, noting that they've gone a woeful 11-25 against southpaw starters this season. Steele enters this start with a 3.34 FIP and 1.41 WHIP having allowed just over 4.6 runs per nine innings. The Cubs bullpen has been a bright spot overall this season and checks in with a 3.90 ERA and 1.27 WHIP at home this season. Take Chicago (8*). |
|||||||
08-09-22 | Angels -175 v. A's | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The case could certainly be made for the Angels to be priced north of -200 in this contest and we may very well see the price get there by the time first pitch rolls around. Shohei Ohtani will get the start for the Angels. While he hasn't received the same amount of hype as he did a year ago when he did a little more with the bat, he's having another terrific campaign on the mound, posting Cy Young Award-caliber numbers - a 2.42 FIP and a 1.04 WHIP while allowing just 3.00 runs per nine innings. Behind Ohtani is an Angels bullpen that has been lights out lately, recording a collective 1.73 ERA and 0.81 WHIP over the last seven games, not to mention a solid 3.60 ERA and 1.14 WHIP away from home this season. James Kaprielian will counter for Oakland. He's logged a disappointing 5.20 FIP and 1.29 WHIP while giving up north of 4.4 runs per nine innings this season. While the A's bullpen hasn't been bad lately, it certainly hasn't posted the same type of numbers as that of the Angels with a 4.28 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over the last seven contests. At home this season, Oakland relievers have combined to record a 4.64 ERA and 1.45 WHIP with just 11 saves converted and six blown. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
|||||||
08-09-22 | Cardinals -160 v. Rockies | 5-16 | Loss | -160 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. While the Cardinals could certainly be ripe for a letdown off a sweep of the Yankees over the weekend, I believe their advantages on the mound are too strong to ignore in this particular matchup. Miles Mikolas will take the ball for St. Louis. He checks in with a 3.68 FIP and 1.01 WHIP while allowing just shy of 3.2 runs per nine innings this season. Behind Mikolas is a Cards bullpen that has posted a collective 1.59 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over the last seven games. Meanwhile, the Rockies will turn to Ryan Feltner, who continues to labor through the 2022 season. He sports a 4.51 FIP and 1.45 WHIP while giving up 5.98 runs per nine innings. Perhaps even more problematic is the Rockies bullpen, which has logged an 8.15 ERA and 1.91 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take St. Louis (8*). |
|||||||
08-09-22 | Blue Jays -150 v. Orioles | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -150 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto over Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. This one sets up exceptionally well as a bounce-back spot for the Blue Jays after last night's 7-4 loss here at Camden Yards. Alek Manoah will take the ball for Toronto. He's having a fine sophomore campaign having posted a 3.42 FIP and 0.99 WHIP while yielding just 2.8 runs per nine innings. He hasn't had his best stuff over his last couple of outings, but last time out that was still enough to guide the Jays to a 9-3 victory in Minnesota. The last time Manoah faced the Orioles he tossed six shutout innings back on June 13th. Prior to that he gave up just one earned run over seven frames against them last October. Kyle Bradish will counter for Baltimore. While the O's have had many young arms rise to the occasion this season, Bradish hasn't been one of them. He owns an ugly 5.15 FIP and 1.65 WHIP while giving up a whopping 6.71 runs per nine innings. The Jays saw him in June and tagged him for five earned runs on nine hits over just 4 1/3 innings. The bullpens are virtually a wash in this game so we'll confidently back the Jays based on their considerable starting pitching advantage. Take Toronto (10*). |
|||||||
08-08-22 | Nationals v. Cubs -175 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Washington at 8:05 pm et on Monday. I'll gladly back the Cubs at a sub -200 price in this matchup as they host the reeling Nationals on Monday. Anibal Sanchez's return to the Nationals rotation hasn't gone well as he checks in with a 7.02 FIP and 1.50 WHIP while allowing a whopping 8.1 runs per nine innings, albeit with a small sample size of just 20 innings. Behind Sanchez is a Nats bullpen that has struggled away from home all season and sports a 5.59 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over the last seven contests. Cubs starter Keegan Thompson has been an underrated commodity all season in my opinion, relatively speaking at least. He enters Monday's start with a 3.99 FIP and 1.27 WHIP, giving up an average of 4.06 runs per nine innings. The Cubs bullpen has held up well overall this season and checks in with a 3.04 ERA and 1.40 WHIP over the last seven games. Take Chicago (8*). |
|||||||
08-06-22 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -165 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -165 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
My selection is on Arizona over Colorado at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We’ll confidently get behind the D’Backs on Saturday as they have a considerable edge in terms of both the starting pitching and bullpen matchup against the Rockies. Antonio Senzatela gets the start for the visiting Rockies. He’s labored through the 2022 season, recording a 4.11 FIP and 1.71 WHIP while giving up north of 5.3 runs per nine innings. The D’Backs will be seeing the right-hander for the second time this season after chasing him following just two innings in an eventual 9-3 victory back on July 1st. Merrill Kelly will counter for Arizona. He has really come into his own lately, lowering his FIP to 3.11 and his WHIP to 1.13. Kelly has allowed just 3.02 runs per nine innings this season. While he’s not likely to win the award, he has at least put himself into the N.L. Cy Young conversation thanks to a terrific run of pitching. The D’Backs bullpen entered last night’s action sporting a collective 2.39 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over the last seven games, not to mention a 3.53 ERA and 1.27 WHIP at home this season. In stark contrast, the Rockies ‘pen owns a 5.87 ERA and 1.65 WHIP over the last seven contests (entering last night’s action). Take Arizona (10*). |
|||||||
08-05-22 | Yankees -142 v. Cardinals | 3-4 | Loss | -142 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over St. Louis at 8:15 pm et on Friday. We’ll give the Yankees the considerable advantage in terms of both the starting pitching and the bullpen matchup in this one and the price is reasonable to back them. Nestor Cortes Jr. will take the ball for New York. He’s obviously enjoying a breakout season having posted a 3.35 FIP and 1.02 WHIP while giving up only 2.62 runs per nine innings. In comparison with his counterpart on Friday, Dakota Hudson, Cortes has given up 1.1 fewer hits and 1.9 fewer walks per nine innings this season. The Yankees bullpen has been outstanding all season and that has certainly been the case lately as they’ve recorded a collective 2.39 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over the last seven games. Hudson checks in with a 4.62 FIP and 1.36 WHIP this season, yielding just shy of 4.2 runs per nine innings. Behind Hudson is a Cardinals bullpen that entered yesterday’s double-header against the Cubs having posted a collective 6.11 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take New York (8*). |
|||||||
08-05-22 | White Sox -173 v. Rangers | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Friday. The Rangers narrowly took the opener of this series last night but I look for the White Sox to rebound on Friday. White Sox starter Dylan Cease continues to stake his claim as an A.L. Cy Young Award contender having posted a 2.70 FIP and 1.17 WHIP this season, allowing only 2.78 runs per nine innings. You would have to go back 13 starts, all the way to late-May, to find the last time Cease gave up more than a single earned run in an outing. His counterpart on Friday will be Glenn Otto of the Rangers. He’s mired in an awful rookie campaign, sporting a 5.30 FIP and 1.46 WHIP while giving up 5.75 runs per nine frames. Chicago should own the later innings in this game as well as its bullpen has been terrific lately, recording a collective 2.21 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night’s action). Take Chicago (8*). |
|||||||
08-05-22 | Braves v. Mets -135 | 9-6 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York first five innings over Atlanta at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We’ve had some success backing the Mets in the first five innings in recent games and I won’t hesitate to go back to the well again on Friday as they hand the ball to Taijuan Walker against Ian Anderson of the Braves. Anderson has arguably been the weak link in the Braves otherwise terrific rotation this season. He checks in with a 4.24 FIP and 1.51 WHIP on the campaign, yielding an average of 5.08 runs per nine innings. Mets starter Taijuan Walker is having an outstanding season, entering Friday’s game with a 3.35 FIP and 1.13 WHIP while allowing less than 2.9 runs per nine innings. The issue with backing the Mets for the full game is their bullpen. They’ve struggled in that department lately with their ‘pen posting a collective 5.83 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night’s action). Take New York first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
08-03-22 | Orioles v. Rangers -151 | 6-3 | Loss | -151 | 18 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Baltimore at 2:05 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the Rangers on Wednesday afternoon as they send a rejuvenated Martin Perez to the hill against Kyle Bradish of the Orioles. Bradish is having a tough campaign having posted a 5.32 FIP and 1.70 WHIP while giving up just shy of 7.2 runs per nine innings. He actually had some of his best stuff in his most recent start against the Reds but I'm not convinced he can string together a second straight quality outing here. Perez is of course enjoying a 'turn back the clock' type of season, recording a 3.07 FIP and 1.15 WHIP while holding the opposition to just 2.88 runs per nine innings. The Orioles saw the veteran left-hander once last season and managed to scratch out just one earned run in five innings. With the two bullpens comparable in terms of recent form and with the O's on the road and the Rangers at home, we'll confidently back the Rangers at home in this matinee affair. Take Texas (8*). |
|||||||
08-02-22 | Reds v. Marlins -128 | 2-1 | Loss | -128 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. I realize the fact that Marlins starter Braxton Garrett just struggled against these same Reds in his most recent outing but I'm willing to give him a mulligan for that poor start and expect him to bounce back and help his team snap its four-game slide on Tuesday. Garrett has actually posted solid numbers this season. He owns a 3.23 FIP and 1.19 WHIP while giving up 4.3 runs per nine innings. Behind Garrett is a Miami bullpen that has recorded a 3.70 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over the last seven contests. Graham Ashcraft will counter for Cincinnati. He has posted a 4.05 FIP and 1.42 WHIP while yielding just shy of 4.8 runs per nine innings in his rookie campaign. A concern for the Reds is a bullpen that has posted a collective 5.33 ERA and 1.46 WHIP on the road this season. Take Miami (8*). |
|||||||
07-30-22 | Cubs v. Giants -130 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco first five innings over Chicago at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. We'll back the Giants in the first five innings only in this one as we look to avoid their bullpen, which continues to struggle. I do like the advantage San Francisco has in terms of the starting pitching matchup. The Giants have been terrific against left-handed starting pitching this season, averaging 5.1 runs per game (compared to their season scoring average of 4.6 runs per game). They'll face Drew Smyly on Saturday. He owns a 4.45 FIP and 1.27 WHIP this season, giving up just north of 4.4 runs per nine innings. Jakob Junis will take the ball for San Francisco. He has recorded a 3.89 FIP and 1.01 WHIP while holding the opposition to just under 3.0 runs per nine innings. The problem for the Giants is their bullpen as it has posted a collective 7.58 ERA and 1.79 WHIP over the last seven games. As I said, we'll look to avoid that relief corps by backing the Giants in the first five innings only. Take San Francisco first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
07-29-22 | Phillies v. Pirates +110 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
N.L. Game of the Week. My selection is on Pittsburgh over Philadelphia at 7:05 pm et on Friday. While we gave the Phillies the edge in terms of starting pitchers in the opener of this series last night, it’s a different story on Friday as Philadelphia sends Bailey Falter to the hill against Jose Quintana of the Pirates. Falter continues to struggle having posted an ugly 6.18 FIP and 1.46 WHIP this season, allowing 6.0 runs per nine innings. We’ve yet to see Falter work beyond the fifth inning in any of his seven career big league starts, which opens the door for a Phillies bullpen that has posted a collective 5.64 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over the last seven games. Jose Quintana has ‘turned back the clock’ for the Pirates this season, putting himself into the conversation as a potential trade option for a contending team. He enters this start sporting a 3.27 FIP and 1.28 WHIP while giving up just shy of 4.0 runs per nine innings. The Pirates bullpen has been solid lately, recording a collective 2.53 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night’s action). Take Pittsburgh (10*). |
|||||||
07-28-22 | Phillies -190 v. Pirates | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia first five innings over Pittsburgh at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Phillies are fresh off securing a series win over the Braves and I look for them to get off to a positive start against the Pirates on Thursday as well. With no real bullpen advantage in the later innings of this one, I'll back Philadelphia in the first five innings only here. Phillies ace Zack Wheeler has lived up to his billing this season, and then some. He's posted a Cy Young Award-caliber 2.77 FIP and 1.04 WHIP while allowing just 3.12 runs per nine innings. Wheeler has worked at least into the seventh inning in three of his last four starts overall. The Pirates will counter with Zach Thompson. Based on his performance this season, he may not be long for a big league rotation. Thompson has recorded a 5.31 FIP and 1.44 WHIP while yielding north of 5.2 runs per nine innings. Things don't figure to get any easier against a Phillies lineup that seemed to regain its form against a tougher Braves pitching staff than it will face in this matchup. Take Philadelphia first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
07-27-22 | Rangers -115 v. Mariners | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
A.L. West Game of the Week. My selection is on Texas first five innings over Seattle at 3:40 pm et on Wednesday. I’m not interested in the bullpen battle in this game as I give the Mariners a considerable edge in that department based on recent form. With that being said, I will back the Rangers in the first five innings as starter Jon Gray has been quietly effective lately and by all accounts catches the Mariners bats at the right time. Gray has lowered his FIP to 3.29 and his WHIP to 1.12 and gives up just under 3.8 runs per nine innings this season. He hasn't allowed an earned run over his last two outings, covering a span of 13 innings. It’s a much different story for Marco Gonzales of the Mariners. He has recorded a 5.28 FIP and 1.39 WHIP while allowing 4.58 runs per nine innings. Note that the Rangers have scored considerably more against left-handed starting pitching compared to righties over the course of the season. Look for Texas to control proceedings through five innings at the very least. Take Texas first five innings (10*). |
|||||||
07-26-22 | Giants -160 v. Diamondbacks | 3-7 | Loss | -160 | 15 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco first five innings over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. Monday’s pitching change for Arizona pushed starter Tyler Gilbert back to Tuesday’s game and that sets us up well with a play on the visiting Giants here. We’ll only trust them in the first five innings though, as their bullpen continues to struggle, entering this series with a 6.20 ERA and 1.67 WHIP over the last seven games. Carlos Rodon will take the ball for San Francisco. He’s put up Cy Young Award-caliber numbers this season with a 2.25 FIP and 1.14 WHIP, yielding just north of 3.0 runs per nine innings. What you really have to like about Rodon is his ability to keep the ball in the park, giving up just 0.4 home runs per nine innings. While his first career start against the D’Backs didn’t go well earlier this month, I’m willing to give him a pass for that poor outing as his full body of work this season tells a much different story. Tyler Gilbert has had a miserable campaign, posting a 5.93 FIP and 1.25 WHIP while allowing 5.64 runs per nine innings. Note that he’s even struggled at the AAA level this season, recording a 7.57 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in 44 innings of work. Gilbert hasn’t been able to keep the ball in the park, allowing 2.3 home runs per nine innings in the minors and 2.1 HR/9 in the majors this year. The Giants will be seeing him for the second time this season and I’m confident they can get to him early. Take San Francisco first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
07-26-22 | Marlins -107 v. Reds | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 21 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. With the Marlins bullpen holding an edge in this matchup and Pablo Lopez enjoying a much better campaign than Reds rookie Hunter Greene, I’ll back the visiting Fish on Tuesday in Cincinnati. Lopez owns a 3.75 FIP and 1.09 WHIP while yielding just shy of 3.4 runs per nine innings this season. His success certainly hasn’t come out of nowhere as Lopez has posted a career 3.79 FIP and 1.17 WHIP across five big league seasons. Greene may have a bright future for the Reds but right now big league hitters seem to have him figured out. After showing flashes of brilliance early in the season, he’s seen his FIP rise to 5.43 and his WHIP to 1.35 while giving up just under 5.9 runs per nine innings. Entering this series, the Reds bullpen had recorded a collective 5.34 ERA and 1.47 WHIP while converting just five saves and blowing six at home this season. Take Miami (8*). |
|||||||
07-25-22 | Pirates v. Cubs -135 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Pittsburgh at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The Cubs are quietly rolling right now, winners of four straight games including a three-game sweep of the Phillies in Philadelphia over the weekend. Everything is clicking right now and I like their chances of keeping the good vibes going at home against the Pirates on Monday. Pittsburgh is coming off a tough 6-5 extra innings loss against the Marlins yesterday (we won with Miami in that game). Credit the Buccos for hanging tough against one of the best starting pitchers in baseball in Sandy Alcantara in that one but they simply weren't able to outlast the Marlins offense. JT Brubaker will get the start for the Pirates on Monday. He's been good but certainly not great for Pittsburgh this season, posting a 3.75 FIP and 1.42 WHIP while yielding 4.88 runs per nine innings. He puts far too many runners on base, noting that he's handed out 3.8 walks per nine innings. You would have to go back six road starts to find the last time the Pirates won with Brubaker on the hill. He's never helped the Buccos to wins in consecutive starts against the Cubs (he's faced them seven times) and that's worth noting as the Pirates won his most recent outing against Chicago by a 12-1 score back in June. The Cubs will be seeing Brubaker for the fourth time this season and the sixth time since the start of last year. Of bigger concern for the Pirates is their struggling bullpen. It couldn't keep the Marlins bats at bay late in yesterday's game and checks into Monday's contest having recorded a 4.94 ERA and 1.82 WHIP over the last seven games. That's in stark contrast to the Cubs bullpen, which owns a 1.42 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over the same stretch. Adrian Sampson gets the call to start for the Cubs on Monday. He's done everything that's been asked of him with the big club this year, recording a 3.65 FIP and 1.21 WHIP while allowing just shy of 4.2 runs per nine innings. The Cubs have won three of his five starts despite a tough slate of opponents including the Cardinals and Brewers on the road and the Red Sox, Orioles and Mets at home. Take Chicago (8*). |
|||||||
07-25-22 | Rays -120 v. Orioles | 1-5 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay first five innings over Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Monday. While I do like the Rays to bounce back from consecutive losses against the Royals as they head to Baltimore to open a series against the Orioles on Monday, I think the ‘first five innings’ is the way to play this one as I’ll concede a significant edge to the Baltimore bullpen in the later innings. Tampa Bay will start veteran right-hander Corey Kluber. He’s quietly putting together a fine campaign having recorded a 3.43 FIP and 1.12 WHIP while allowing just over 3.9 runs per nine innings this season. It’s been a much different story for his counterpart on Monday, Austin Voth. The Orioles right-hander remains in the rotation out of necessity only at this point. He’s posted a respectable 3.94 FIP but a 1.63 WHIP and gives up 3.3 more hits, 0.3 more home runs and 1.4 more walks per nine innings compared to Kluber this season. Opponents have reached Voth for an ugly 7.02 runs per nine innings. Take Tampa Bay first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
07-24-22 | Rays -140 v. Royals | 2-4 | Loss | -140 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Kansas City at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. The Royals evened this series at a game apiece with last night's bounce-back victory. I look for the Rays to answer back on Sunday. Jeffrey Springs will take the ball for Tampa Bay. The Rays may have found something in the left-hander as he's held up exceptionally well over 60+ innings this season, posting a 3.66 FIP and 1.05 WHIP while allowing just 2.53 runs per nine innings. Springs can pitch confidently here knowing that the bullpen behind him has recorded a collective 3.00 ERA and 1.04 WHIP with five saves converted and only one blown over the last seven games (entering last night's action). Kris Bubic will counter for Kansas City. He pitched about as well as could have been expected in his most recent start but the Royals still lost that game in Toronto. Bubic has recorded a 5.07 FIP and 1.73 WHIP this season, yielding an ugly 6.60 runs per nine innings. The Royals bullpen entered last night's game with a 4.76 ERA and 1.56 WHIP at home this season. Take Tampa Bay (8*). |
|||||||
07-24-22 | Marlins -168 v. Pirates | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over Pittsburgh at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. The fact that we're able to back Sandy Alcantara and the Marlins at a price better than -200 on Sunday afternoon in Pittsburgh tells me that the ace right-hander is still being undervalued. Alcantara has put together an impressive Cy Young Award-caliber campaign this season but he's done it out of the spotlight in Miami. He checks in with a 2.72 FIP and 0.90 WHIP while allowing just north of 2.2 runs per nine innings. Pirates starter Mitch Keller has done about as well as the team could have expected but that's not saying much. He owns a 3.87 FIP and 1.46 WHIP while yielding 4.75 runs per nine innings. Keller isn't likely to get a lot of help from a bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a 5.66 ERA and 1.63 WHIP over the last seven games and has converted just nine saves while blowing seven at home this season. Take Miami (8*). |
|||||||
07-23-22 | Padres v. Mets -143 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -143 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
MLB Game of the Week. My selection is on New York over San Diego at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The Mets have proven to be a resilient team all season and I look for them to bounce back off consecutive losses, including a 4-1 setback against the Padres last night, on Saturday night in Queens. Blake Snell will get the nod for the visiting Padres. He's struggled with command issues once again this season, checking in with a respectable 3.70 FIP but a disappointing 1.48 WHIP, allowing jsut shy of 5.6 runs per nine innings along the way. Behind Snell is a Padres bullpen that held up alright last night but has still posted awful numbers over the last seven games - a 4.50 ERA and 5.50 WHIP. San Diego's relief corps has been vulnerable on the road this season, recording a 4.37 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Chris Bassitt will counter for New York. He owns a 3.83 FIP and 1.14 WHIP this season, yielding just shy of 3.9 runs per nine innings. One of his worst outings of the season came against these same Padres, but that was on the road. Here at home, he's posted a 3.12 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. The Mets bullpen has been terrific lately, recording a collective 2.70 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over the last seven contests. Here at home this season, Mets relievers have combined to post a 3.56 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Take New York (10*). |
|||||||
07-23-22 | Cubs v. Phillies -162 | 6-2 | Loss | -162 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia first five innings over Chicago at 6:05 pm et on Saturday. We'll back the Phillies in the first five innings only on Saturday as they send Zack Wheeler to the hill against Marcus Stroman. Wheeler is coming off one of his worst starts of the season in Toronto before the All-Star break. I expect him to rebound here. Note that Wheeler has posted a 2.70 FIP and 1.08 WHIP this season, allowing just 3.25 runs per nine innings. Marcus Stroman will counter for the Cubs. He has posted a 3.85 FIP and 1.15 WHIP and gives up just shy of 5.2 runs per nine innings, with some bad luck in the mix without question. The Cubs bullpen actually holds a considerable edge here in terms of recent form, so we'll stick with the first five innings only. I apologize for the brief analysis as this is a late add to the card. Take Philadelphia first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
07-23-22 | Blue Jays -135 v. Red Sox | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over Boston at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. As much as I dislike backing a team off a blowout win over the same opponent the night previous (the Blue Jays hung 28 runs on the Red Sox last night), I can't ignore the edges Toronto holds in Saturday's matinee affair. All-Star Alek Manoah will take the ball for the Jays. He has recorded a 3.34 FIP and 0.96 WHIP this season while allowing only 2.67 runs per nine innings. In four career starts against Boston, Manoah has posted a 1.80 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Rookie Kutter Crawford gets the call for the Red Sox. He's pitched to mixed results so far this season, recording a 3.72 FIP and 1.36 WHIP while yielding 4.75 runs per nine innings. Toronto's bullpen entered this series having posted a collective 1.54 ERA and 0.77 WHIP over the last seven games while the Red Sox relief corps' logged a 7.22 ERA and 1.81 WHIP over the same stretch and obviously didn't improve on those numbers with last night's horrendous performance. Take Toronto (8*). |
|||||||
07-22-22 | Nationals v. Diamondbacks -151 | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona over Washington at 9:40 pm et on Friday. The Nationals continue to inexplicably trot out struggling left-hander Patrick Corbin every five turns in the rotation, despite his 4.65 FIP and 1.70 WHIP. They're 1-7 in his eight road outings to date this season, where he has posted a 7.19 ERA and 1.86 WHIP. I don't expect things to get any easier tonight as he faces a D'Backs club that has actually posted a winning record (14-13) against southpaw starters this season, averaging 4.7 runs per game along the way (compared to their 4.2 rpg overall scoring average). Behind Corbin is a Nationals bullpen that has been miserable on the road this season, recording a collective 5.94 ERA and 1.51 WHIP, converting just nine saves while blowing five. For a unit that was actually rolling along nicely prior to the All-Star break (2.78 ERA and 0.90 WHIP last seven games), I'm not convinced the time off will have served them well. Zac Gallen gets the call for the D'Backs. He checks in with a reasonable 3.99 FIP and 1.08 WHIP while yielding 3.84 runs per nine innings. Gallen allows 5.1 fewer hits and 0.5 fewer walks per nine innings compared to Corbin. Arizona's bullpen comes off a seven-game stretch in which it posted a respectable 3.74 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Here at home this season, the Snakes relief corps owns a 3.64 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Take Arizona (8*). |
|||||||
07-22-22 | Rays -120 v. Royals | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Friday. We'll back the Rays on Friday night as they head to Kansas City to face the Royals. Drew Rasmussen will get the start for the visiting Rays. He's quietly putting together another fine season having posted a 3.74 FIP and 1.16 WHIP while yielding just north of 3.7 runs per nine innings. Behind Rasmussen is a Rays bullpen that likely benefited from the All-Star break having already logged 399 2/3 innings this season, including 31 innings over its last seven games. Despite the heavy workload, the Rays 'pen has held up well. It entered the break sporting a collective 3.48 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over the last seven games and a 3.64 ERA and 1.28 WHIP on the road this season. In stark contrast, the Royals relief corps' owns a 4.80 ERA and 1.56 WHIP at home this season. Brad Keller gets the ball for the Royals on Friday. He's having another very Brad Keller-like campaign, recording a 4.22 FIP and 1.27 WHIP while allowing just north of 4.4 runs per nine innings. Take Tampa Bay (8*). |
|||||||
07-21-22 | Tigers -138 v. A's | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Thursday. It's not often you see the Tigers as a road favorite but I believe the price is warranted on Thursday. Detroit will hand the ball to Tarik Skubal. He went through a rough stretch but has steadied himself over his last couple of outings and I expect him to pitch well again on Thursday. Note that he was in desperate need of a breather having made six of his last seven starts on just four days' rest. Skubal checks in sporting a 3.02 FIP and 1.20 WHIP this season. Behind Skubal is a Detroit bullpen that has posted a collective 3.02 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only five blown on the road this season. Zach Logue will counter for Oakland. He was on the mound for a 3-2 win over Houston in his return to the bigs last week. Keep in mind, he has posted an ERA north of five and a WHIP above 1.70 at the AAA level this season. In 29 2/3 innings of work at the major league level, Logue has recorded a 5.84 FIP and a 1.45 WHIP while yielding 5.16 runs per nine innings. Oakland's bullpen owns a 4.89 ERA and 1.50 WHIP with only six saves converted and six blown at home. Take Detroit (8*). |
|||||||
07-19-22 | American League +101 v. National League | 3-2 | Win | 101 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the American League over the National League at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. |
|||||||
07-17-22 | Brewers v. Giants -164 | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Milwaukee at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Giants have a significant pitching edge on Sunday as they hand the ball to Logan Webb against Aaron Ashby of the Brewers. Webb owns a 3.01 FIP and 1.11 WHIP this season, yielding only 3.14 runs per nine innings. Ashby on the other hand has posted a 3.99 FIP and 1.47 WHIP while allowing 4.9 runs per nine innings. With the Brewers bullpen struggling, having entered last night's contest sporting a 6.12 ERA and 1.32 WHIP over their last seven games, we'll fade them here. Take San Francisco (8*). |
|||||||
07-16-22 | Mariners -138 v. Rangers | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle over Texas at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. The Mariners have had the Rangers number in this series, rallying for a win on Thursday before delivering an 8-3 victory last night. I look for them to continue their winning ways on Saturday as they own a considerable edge on the mound. Logan Gilbert gets the start for Seattle. He owns a 3.60 FIP and 1.17 WHIP this season while allowing only 3.14 runs per nine innings. It's been a much different story for Rangers starter Spencer Howard, albeit with a smaller sample size. He has posted a 7.77 FIP and 1.66 WHIP in 15 2/3 innings, allowing north of 8.6 runs per nine innings. The bullpen matchup has been even more lopsided lately with the Mariners relief corps having recorded a 1.61 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over its last seven games while Texas' 'pen checks in with a 6.68 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over the same stretch (entering last night's action). Take Seattle (8*). |
|||||||
07-16-22 | Reds v. Cardinals -156 | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis first five innings over Cincinnati at 2:15 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the Cardinals in the first five innings on Saturday afternoon as they send Miles Mikolas to the hill against rookie Nick Lodolo of the Reds. Mikolas is having another fine campaign having posted a 3.65 FIP and 0.98 WHIP while allowing just over 2.9 runs per nine innings. Lodolo has recorded a 4.14 FIP and 1.60 WHIP while yielding 4.44 runs per nine frames. I'll stick with the first five innings only, however, as the Cardinals bullpen has admittedly struggled lately while the Reds 'pen entered last night's action sporting a 2.70 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over its last seven contests. Take St. Louis first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
07-15-22 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -179 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego first five innings over Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Friday. The Padres had a rocky trip to Colorado (no pun intended) but I look for them to bounce back on Friday against Arizona, at least early on. Yu Darvish will get the start for San Diego. He owns a 3.32 FIP and 0.99 WHIP this season, giving up only 3.38 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Friday, Madison Bumgarner, hasn't been nearly as effective, recording a 4.60 FIP and 1.35 WHIP, yielding 4.34 runs per nine innings. The reason I'm backing the Padres in the first five innings only is their struggling bullpen, which has posted an ugly 7.33 ERA and 1.97 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take San Diego first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
07-15-22 | Dodgers -180 v. Angels | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the Dodgers over the Angels at 9:35 pm et on Friday. We'll back the Dodgers with Clayton Kershaw on the hill against Patrick Sandoval of the Angels on Friday night. Kershaw is having a fine campaign, albeit limited by injury. He has recorded a Cy Young Award-caliber 2.57 FIP and 1.01 WHIP while holding opponents to just 2.54 runs per nine innings. Sandoval has had a solid season in his own right, posting a 3.00 FIP and 1.39 WHIP and giving up just 3.3 runs per nine frames. As far as the bullpens go, the edge belongs to the Dodgers as well as they've posted a collective 2.70 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over the last seven games, not to mention a 2.91 ERA and 1.10 WHIP on the road this season with nine converted saves and only two blown. The Angels 'pen has recorded a 4.01 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over its last seven contests and has converted 13 saves while blowing eight at home this season. Take the Dodgers (8*). |
|||||||
07-15-22 | Pirates +134 v. Rockies | 2-13 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Friday. The Pirates have been the very definition of a 'tough out' this season and I look for them to give the Rockies all they can handle on Friday. Jose Quintana will get the start for Pittsburgh. He has 'turned back the clock' this season, posting a 3.33 ERA and 1.31 WHIP while yielding just 3.9 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Friday, German Marquez, owns a 5.06 FIP and 1.47 WHIP while giving up north of 6.2 runs per nine innings. The later innings should belong to the Pirates as well, noting their bullpen has recorded a collective 3.37 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over the last seven games while the Rockies 'pen has posted a 4.70 ERA and 1.48 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Pittsburgh (8*). |
|||||||
07-15-22 | Phillies v. Marlins -157 | 2-1 | Loss | -157 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over Philadelphia at 6:40 pm et on Friday. I think we have more of a starting pitching mismatch than most may realize in this game as the still-underrated Sandy Alcantara takes the ball for the Marlins against Kyle Gibson of the Phillies. The Marlins have been winning fairly consistently for weeks now while the Phillies enter this contest off four consecutive defeats. Gibson checks in sporting a 4.33 FIP and 1.23 WHIP while allowing north of 4.6 runs per nine innings. Alcantara on the other hand owns a sparkling 2.83 FIP and 0.91 WHIP while yielding only 2.21 runs per nine frames. In direct comparison, Alcantara gives up 2.5 fewer hits and 0.9 fewer home runs per nine innings. While both bullpens have been effective, the Marlins do hold a slight edge in terms of recent form, posting a 1.57 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over the last seven games. Take Miami (8*). |
|||||||
07-14-22 | Mariners v. Rangers -111 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas first five innings over Seattle at 8:05 pm et on Thursday. The Mariners are red hot right now, winners of 10 games in a row. While I'm not interested in fading them for the full game on Thursday due to their bullpen advantage, I will go against them in the first five innings. Marco Gonzales will get the nod for the visiting Mariners. It's worth noting that the Rangers have feasted on left-handed starting pitching this season, averaging 5.4 runs per game while posting a 17-11 record. Gonzales owns an ugly 5.15 FIP and 1.31 WHIP while yielding 4.2 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Thursday, Rangers lefty Martin Perez, is headed for the All-Star Game as he's having a career year. He checks in with a 3.07 FIP and 1.18 WHIP, allowing only 3.14 runs per nine innings. As I mentioned, the Mariners do have an edge in the later innings as their bullpen has been lights out, posting a collective 1.57 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over the last seven games, not to mention the fact that they enjoyed a couple of days off earlier this week due to rain in Washington. The Rangers 'pen owns a 5.40 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over its last seven contests. Take Texas first five innings (10*). |
|||||||
07-14-22 | Dodgers -148 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
My selection is on Los Angeles over St. Louis at 7:15 pm et on Thursday. The Cardinals blew a prime opportunity to clinch a series win over the Dodgers last night, blowing a 6-0 lead in an eventual 7-6 loss. Now they face a tough pitching matchup on Thursday as Los Angeles sends Tyler Anderson to the hill against Dakota Hudson. Anderson checks in sporting a 3.36 FIP and 1.03 WHIP this season, allowing 3.25 runs per nine innings. Note that the Cards are just 9-8 against left-handed starting pitchers, averaging 4.5 runs per game. The Dodgers, meanwhile, are 40-19 against righties, averaging an impressive 5.3 runs per contest. They'll face Dakota Hudson on Thursday. He has recorded a 4.37 FIP and 1.38 WHIP while yielding 4.1 runs per nine frames. While the Cards 'pen has struggled lately to the tune of a 4.85 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over the last seven games, the Dodgers relief corps has posted a 2.66 ERA and 0.80 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
|||||||
07-13-22 | Padres -159 v. Rockies | 6-10 | Loss | -159 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego 'first five innings' over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockies evened this series at a game apiece with a 5-3 victory last night. I expect the Padres to get the better of them on Wednesday, however, at least early on. We'll play San Diego in the first five innings only in this one as the Padres bullpen continues to struggle, entering last night's action sporting a 5.76 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over its last seven contests. I prefer to back the Padres bats against Rockies starter Chad Kuhl and with one of their best starters on the hill in Joe Musgrove over the first five frames. Musgrove checks in with a 3.13 FIP and 0.93 WHIP this season, yielding just 2.45 runs per nine innings. While Kuhl got off to a fine start, he's struggled lately, elevating his FIP to 4.29 and his WHIP to 1.35 in the process. Kuhl is giving up 4.23 runs per nine frames. He allows 2.5 more hits and 1.3 more walks per nine innings compared to Musgrove. Padres hitters have had plenty of success against Kuhl - the last two times they've faced him, once last year and once here in 2022, they've plated nine runs on 12 hits and 12 walks, not to mention a pair of home runs, in only eight innings. Take San Diego first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
07-13-22 | Pirates v. Marlins -165 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami over Pittsburgh at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday. This will be a popular play on Wednesday but that doesn’t mean it’s the wrong one. The Pirates are suddenly hot, winners of four games in a row. They’ll be in tough on Wednesday though as they send JT Brubaker to the mound against Pablo Lopez of the Marlins. Brubaker’s 3.91 FIP isn’t awful but his 1.47 WHIP does leave a lot to be desired. Opponents have lit up the right-hander for 5.28 runs per nine innings this season. Lopez is having a fine campaign, having recorded a 3.60 FIP and 1.07 WHIP. He allows 2.2 fewer hits and 1.4 fewer walks per nine innings compared to Brubaker. Lopez has limited opponents to just shy of 3.2 runs per nine innings. Note also that the Marlins should have the edge in the later innings, with their bullpen having posted a 3.57 ERA and 1.35 WHIP at home this season (entering last night’s action). The Pirates ‘pen has held up alright in this series, it did enter last night’s contest having posted a 7.17 ERA and 1.83 WHIP over the last seven games. Take Miami (10*). |
|||||||
07-13-22 | Brewers v. Twins -122 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
Wednesday MLB Free play. My selection is on Minnesota over Milwaukee at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday. We’ll back the Twins on Wednesday as they send Joe Ryan to the hill against Aaron Ashby of the Brewers. Ryan has posted a fairly pedestrian 3.86 FIP but a terrific 1.09 WHIP while giving up just north of 3.2 runs per nine innings. Behind Ryan is a Twins bullpen that entered last night’s action sporting a 3.10 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over the last seven games. Aaron Ashby has had an up-and-down campaign for the Brewers. He owns a 4.02 FIP and 1.43 WHIP and gives up 1.6 more hits and 1.5 more walks per nine innings compared to Ryan. Opponents have reached Ashby for north of 5.0 runs per nine frames. Meanwhile, the Brewers bullpen has recorded a 4.18 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over the last seven contests (entering last night’s game). Take Minnesota. Sean delivered the cash AGAIN in MLB action last night and he's back to extend his RED HOT 76-52 MLB run with another 10* TOP RATED big ticket release on Wednesday; grab a long-term picks pass today and don't miss a single winner from Murph! |
|||||||
07-12-22 | Tigers +115 v. Royals | 7-5 | Win | 115 | 22 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. We’ll gladly fade Royals starter Kris Bubic on Tuesday as the Tigers get their third look at the right-hander this season. Bubic checks in with an ugly 5.75 FIP and 1.87 WHIP while allowing a whopping 7.4 runs per nine innings this season. It doesn’t get any better for the Royals in the later innings in this one either. Kansas City’s ‘pen owns a 6.39 ERA and 2.17 WHIP over the last seven games (entering yesterday’s action). The Tigers will hand the ball to rookie Beau Brieske. He’s struggled at times, as most rookie starters do, but in general has held up well for the Tigers, posting a 5.14 FIP but a 1.22 WHIP. He allows 3.12 fewer runs, 2.8 fewer hits and 3.0 fewer walks per nine innings compared to Bubic. The Tigers ‘pen entered this series sporting a terrific 2.33 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over the last seven games. They also entered the series having converted 11 saves while blowing only four on the road this season, recording a 2.92 ERA and 1.14 WHIP along the way. Take Detroit (9*). |
|||||||
07-12-22 | Dodgers -135 v. Cardinals | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -135 | 22 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles over St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Tuesday. While both of Tuesday’s starting pitchers are unproven and neither boasts all that large of a body of work this season, I’ll give the considerable edge to Mitch White of the Dodgers. White doesn’t generally work deep into ball games but he has been effective when he’s been on the hill, recording a 3.73 FIP and 1.15 WHIP while allowing 3.83 runs per nine innings. His counterpart, rookie Matthew Liberatore, has struggled for the most part, logging a 5.13 FIP and 1.74 WHIP while giving up 4.74 runs per nine innings. Liberatore checks in allowing 3.6 more hits, 1.7 more walks and 0.7 more home runs per nine innings compared to White. While the Cardinals bullpen has been lights out lately, the Dodgers have been more consistent in that department this season and for their part, have posted a collective 3.04 ERA and 0.85 WHIP over the last seven contests. Take Los Angeles (10*). |
|||||||
07-12-22 | Brewers v. Twins -130 | 6-3 | Loss | -130 | 22 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota first five innings over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. This is a tough spot for the Brewers as they look to rebound off consecutive losses against the lowly Pirates on the weekend. Jason Alexander will get the start for Milwaukee. He continues to labor through his rookie campaign having posted a 4.66 FIP and 1.72 WHIP while allowing 5.75 runs per nine innings. Behind Alexander is a Brewers bullpen that has struggled lately, posting a collective 4.18 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over the last seven games, however it has been terrific on the road this season, recording 23 saves while blowing only six while recording a 3.40 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, so we’ll look to avoid the potential late innings mismatch and play the first five innings only here (note that the Twins ‘pen has recorded just 11 saves while blowing eight at Target Field this season). Minnesota will give the start to Josh Winder. The rookie has impressed for the most part, logging a 4.09 FIP and 1.24 WHIP while limiting opponents to just under 3.6 runs per nine innings. Take Minnesota first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
07-12-22 | Mets v. Braves -148 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
N.L. Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta over New York at 7:20 pm et on Tuesday. While last night’s series opener between these two teams featured a matchup of two aces, Tuesday’s starting pitching matchup is more of a mismatch as the Mets send David Peterson to the hill against Spencer Strider of the Braves. Peterson has had an up-and-down campaign to be sure. He checks in sporting a 4.01 FIP and 1.27 WHIP while allowing north of 4.0 runs per nine innings. Braves rookie Strider has been a breakout star, recording a ridiculous 1.82 FIP and 0.98 WHIP while yielding just shy of 2.9 runs per nine frames. With the two bullpens a virtual wash, I’ll give the edge to Strider, not to mention the Braves bats in this one. Note that Atlanta has gone 21-9 against left-handed starting pitchers this season, averaging 5.7 runs per game while outscoring opponents by 1.9 runs on average in those contests. Take Atlanta (10*). |
|||||||
07-10-22 | Rays -140 v. Reds | Top | 5-10 | Loss | -140 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
Interleague Game of the Week. My selection is on Tampa Bay over Cincinnati at 1:40 pm et on Sunday. After blowing a 3-0 eighth inning lead in an eventual 5-4 extra innings loss yesterday - their second straight defeat in this series - I look for the Rays to salvage Sunday's series finale before heading back home. Shane Baz will take the ball for Tampa Bay. He's now pitched 38 innings in his big league career, recording a 3.44 FIP and 0.98 WHIP while allowing just 2.61 runs per nine innings. It's been a bit more of a struggle for Reds rookie Nick Lodolo. He's worked 19 1/3 innings this season, recording a 4.03 FIP and 1.50 WHIP while giving up just shy of 4.2 runs per nine frames. While the Rays don't hold a massive edge in the later innings with their bullpen struggling a bit lately, I do think they have enough of an advantage early to pay off for us on Sunday afternoon. Take Tampa Bay (10*). |
|||||||
07-09-22 | Rays -147 v. Reds | 4-5 | Loss | -147 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Cincinnati at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. You would have to go back six starts to find the last time the Reds posted a win in a game that rookie Hunter Greene started and that came against the lowly D’Backs. I expect Greene to be in tough again on Saturday as he brings his 5.67 FIP and 1.35 WHIP into this outing. Even if Greene does find some success, the Reds bullpen behind him has been awful at home the season, recording a collective 5.76 ERA and 1.52 WHIP while converting just four saves and blowing four (entering last night’s action). Rays starter Drew Rasmussen makes his return from a hamstring injury. Not a lot is likely to be asked of him on Saturday and that’s fine as the Rays bullpen has posted a 3.58 ERA and 1.28 WHIP on the road this season. For his part, Rasmussen has recorded a 3.84 FIP and 1.17 WHIP. Last season, Rasmussen delivered a terrific 2.86 FIP and 0.97 WHIP. Take Tampa Bay (8*). |
|||||||
07-09-22 | Guardians -124 v. Royals | Top | 13-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
A.L. Central Game of the Year. My selection is on Cleveland over Kansas City at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. While Cleveland has been struggling lately I do expect it to find its way into the win column on Saturday as it sends Triston McKenzie to the hill against rookie Jon Heasley of the Royals. McKenzie is a bit of an enigma as he’s posted an inflated 4.58 FIP but an impressive 0.99 WHIP. I do like the fact that he allows more than a run less per nine innings compared to Heasley, not to mention 1.7 fewer hits and 2.3 fewer walks. Heasley has recorded a 5.30 FIP and 1.43 WHIP and has yielded just shy of 5.0 runs per nine innings. The Guardians will be getting their second look at him this season after delivering a 7-3 win back on May 30th. McKenzie has faced the Royals six times over the course of his career, posting a terrific 2.97 ERA and 0.84 WHIP with the Guardians winning four of those games. Take Cleveland (10*). |
|||||||
07-08-22 | Giants +139 v. Padres | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over San Diego at 9:40 pm et on Friday. You would have to go back 11 starts to find the last time Padres left-hander Blake Snell guided his team to a victory. You would also have to go back to September of 2020 to find the last time the Padres won consecutive games in a series against the division-rival Giants. I expect both streaks to remain intact on Friday. San Francisco 'opener' Sam Long has been somewhat of a good luck charm on the road. In his four career road starts, the Giants have gone a perfect 4-0. Long checks in with solid numbers this season, having recorded a 3.93 FIP and 1.02 WHIP while allowing only 2.37 runs per nine innings. It's been a much different story for Snell. He owns a 3.70 FIP and 1.46 WHIP while yielding 5.58 runs per nine innings. Walks continue to be a big issue. He's handing out north of five free passes per nine innings. I expect the Giants to take advantage on Friday. While the San Francisco bullpen has struggled lately, the Padres 'pen hasn't been all that reliable either, posting an ERA north of 5.00 over the last seven games. Take San Francisco (8*). |
|||||||
07-08-22 | Yankees -142 v. Red Sox | 12-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Friday. This is a really difficult bounce-back spot for the suddenly reeling Red Sox as they face a pitching mismatch with the Yankees sending Nestor Cortes Jr. to the hill against rookie Connor Seabold. Cortes has been dominant at times this season, recording a 3.35 FIP and 0.95 WHIP while yielding only 2.54 runs per nine innings. It's been a much different story for Seabold, albeit with a small sample size of only two starts and 8 2/3 innings, as he's posted a 6.45 FIP and 2.08 WHIP while giving up a whopping 8.31 runs per nine frames. The later innings should belong to the visitors in this one as well as the Yankees bullpen has been lights out lately, recording a collective 1.37 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over the last seven games. The Red Sox 'pen has been effective lately as well but is reaching 'overworked' territory having logged 31 2/3 innings over the last seven games, without an off day since June 30th (the Yankees were off on Monday). Take New York (8*). |
|||||||
07-08-22 | Angels v. Orioles -137 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore over Los Angeles at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Orioles have reeled off five straight wins and I look for them to keep it going on Friday night against the fading Angels. We actually have a bit of a pitching mismatch on our hands here, even if Angels starter Reid Detmers is the one that has a no-hitter to his credit this season. He hasn't been able to regain that magic since, posting a 5.34 FIP on the season while allowing just shy of 4.7 runs per nine innings. Walks (3.3 per nine innings) and home runs (1.7 per nine innings) continue to be an issue for the left-hander. Note that the Orioles actually own a winning record against southpaw starters this season. Tyler Wells has been terrific over his last four starts, allowing just three earned runs in 22 innings of work. He checks in sporting a 4.08 FIP and 1.00 WHIP this season while allowing just 3.09 runs per nine innings. While the O's don't have a massive bullpen advantage, I do give them the slight edge in that department noting that they've posted a 2.48 ERA and 1.12 WHIP at home this season. Take Baltimore (8*). |
|||||||
07-08-22 | Rays -156 v. Reds | 1-2 | Loss | -156 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tampa Bay over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Friday. Rays ace Shane McClanahan entered his start on June 3rd against the White Sox sporting a terrific 2.10 ERA. He's actually managed to lower that ERA in each and every start since (five starts to be exact), all the way to 1.74. Needless to say, I like his chances against the lowly Reds on Friday. His counterpart will be Luis Castillo. While he's having a fine season in his own right, he's coming off consecutive strong performances and now has to make a second straight start on just four days' rest. I just don't like his chances of stringing together a third consecutive lights out effort against a tough Rays lineup that got in a bit of a groove in Boston earlier this week. That's not to mention the Reds awful bullpen behind Castillo, which has recorded a collective 5.76 ERA and 1.52 WHIP at home this season. Take Tampa Bay (8*). |
|||||||
07-06-22 | Mets -161 v. Reds | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
MLB Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on New York over Cincinnati a 6:40 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the Mets last night as they couldn't muster any offense in Max Scherzer's return to the rotation, losing that game by a 1-0 score in walk-off fashion. They'll bounce back on Wednesday as they hand the ball to a rejuvenated David Peterson. The fact that New York is sending a left-handed starter to the hill is notable as the Reds have gone a woeful 7-16 against southpaws this season, including six consecutive losses heading into this one. Peterson has righted the ship after a rocky start to his campaign, lowering his FIP to 3.78 and his WHIP to 1.20 thanks to consecutive strong outings. While Peterson has yielded an ugly 3.4 walks per nine innings this season he hasn't handed out a single free pass over his last two starts. Graham Ashcraft will counter for Cincinnati. The books seems to be out on the rookie right-hander as he has struggled mightily over his last several outings (save for a solid performance against the reeling Giants). He owns a 4.15 FIP and 1.24 WHIP on the season, allowing north of 4.5 runs per nine innings. While the Reds bullpen held up well last night, that doesn't change the fact that they've recorded an awful 8.44 ERA and 1.99 WHIP over their last seven games. In stark contrast, the Mets 'pen has posted a 3.47 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over the same stretch. Take New York (10*). |
|||||||
07-05-22 | Blue Jays -180 v. A's | 3-5 | Loss | -180 | 14 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto over Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. We'll take a flyer with Yusei Kikuchi and the Blue Jays on Tuesday, betting that Kikuchi's turnaround in his most recent start wasn't a fluke and perhaps the beginning of a positive stretch for the left-hander. Kikuchi allowed just one earned run over six innings in that victory over the Rays last time out. He should be happy to face a former divisional rival that he's had some success against in the A's on Tuesday, noting that Oakland checks in a woeful 9-18 while averaging just 3.0 runs per game against left-handed starters this season. A's spot starter Adrian Martinez had a nice outing against the light-hitting Tigers earlier in the campaign but his second start didn't go nearly as well as the Mariners reached him for seven earned runs in just 4 2/3 innings last time out. After getting baffled by left-hander Cole Irvin last night, look for the Blue Jays bats to wake up against the righty Martinez here. While the A's bullpen has been terrific lately, it still sports an ugly 5.12 ERA and 1.53 WHIP with four saves converted and six blown at home this season. The Jays 'pen has recorded a 3.23 ERA and 1.21 WHIP on the road. Take Toronto (8*). |
|||||||
07-05-22 | Mets -190 v. Reds | 0-1 | Loss | -190 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. The fact that we're able to back the Mets at better than a -200 price point (at the time of writing) represents value in my opinion as they welcome Mad Max Scherzer back to the hill against the lowly Reds. We won with New York last night and I see no reason not to go right back to the well here. Scherzer, prior to getting hurt, had posted a terrific 2.95 FIP and 0.95 WHIP this season, yielding only 2.72 runs per nine innings. There's little reason for the Mets to rush their ace back so I'm confident he's good to go here. Of course, behind Scherzer is a solid Mets bullpen that has posted a 3.57 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over the last seven games. That's in stark contrast to the Reds 'pen, which owns a ridiculous 9.94 ERA and 2.17 WHIP over the same stretch and has blown five saves while converting only four at home this season. Rookie Nick Lodolo will counter Scherzer on Tuesday. He's only seen limited action so far but has not surprisingly struggled, posting a 4.61 FIP and 1.57 WHIP while allowing north of 5.5 runs per nine frames. Take New York (8*). |
|||||||
07-05-22 | Cardinals +130 v. Braves | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
N.L. Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on St. Louis over Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Tuesday. This is undoubtedly the Cardinals best opportunity to steal a win in this series as from here the starting pitching matchups only get tougher with the Braves sending Max Fried and impressive rookie Spencer Strider to the hill the next two days. On Tuesday, St. Louis will hand the ball to Andre Pallante. He's been quietly effective at the back-end of its rotation, posting a 4.10 FIP and 1.31 WHIP while allowing only 2.1 runs per nine innings this season. I like the fact that he's shown the ability to work relatively deep into ball games, lasting at least into the sixth inning in each of his last three starts. Behind Pallante is a Cardinals bullpen that entered last night's action sporting a 2.96 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over the last seven games. Ian Anderson will get the start for Atlanta. He's battled command issues all season, recording a 4.58 FIP and 1.52 WHIP while yielding north of 5.4 runs per nine innings. You would have to go back three Anderson starts to find the last time the Braves won a game with the right-hander on the mound. Atlanta's relief corps entered last night's contest with a 5.64 ERA and 1.48 WHIP, not to mention three blown saves (to go along with three converted) over its previous seven contests. Take St. Louis (10*). |
|||||||
07-05-22 | Angels v. Marlins -135 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami over Los Angeles at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Marlins enter this short two-game set against the Angels on a roll, having reeled off five straight victories - a streak that started with a come-from-behind win in St. Louis in which tonight's starter, Sandy Alcantara, tossed a complete game. The Angels have lost three consecutive games and will hand the ball to Noah Syndergaard on Tuesday. He's certainly pitched well but I believe the Halos have stretched him a little thin, leaving him in for 7+ innings in each of his last two outings. Syndergaard owns a 3.74 FIP and 1.18 WHIP this season while allowing 4.13 runs per nine innings. While those are solid numbers, they don't match up with Alcantara. The Marlins ace has recorded Cy Young Award-caliber numbers this season, with a 3.02 FIP and 0.95 WHIP while giving up only 2.5 runs per nine innings. It's a similar story as far as the two bullpens go as the Marlins are in better form, having posted a collective 3.48 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with four saves converted and one blown over their last seven games. The Angels 'pen has been overworked, called upon to log 30 innings over the last seven contests while recording a 4.50 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Take Miami (8*). |
|||||||
07-04-22 | Mets -161 v. Reds | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Cincinnati at 6:40 pm et on Monday. The Mets have a significant advantage in a number of different departments in this game with starting pitching at the forefront. Taijuan Walker will take the ball for New York. He's been in excellent form, checking in with a 1.80 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over his last three starts. Of course that's nothing new as Walker owns a 3.09 FIP and 1.17 WHIP, allowing just 2.85 runs per nine innings on the season. His counterpart on Monday will be Hunter Greene. His rookie season hasn't gone swimmingly as he's recorded a 5.53 FIP and 1.34 WHIP, yielding north of 5.8 runs per nine frames. The Reds bullpen behind Greene doesn't instill much confidence as that group entered yesterday's action having posted a 10.08 ERA and 2.00 WHIP over the last seven games. At home this season, Cincinnati has recorded only four saves while blowing four as well. In stark contrast, the Mets 'pen entered yesterday's play sporting a 3.37 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over the last seven games, recording three saves without blowing any over that stretch. Take New York (9*). |
|||||||
07-04-22 | Giants -175 v. Diamondbacks | 3-8 | Loss | -175 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Arizona at 6:10 pm et on Monday. We missed with the Giants yesterday as they dropped their third straight game against the White Sox, in blowout fashion no less. With that being said, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them on Monday as they hit the road to face the division rival D'Backs in Arizona. San Francisco has a considerable starting pitching advantage in this one with Carlos Rodon going against Madison Bumgarner of the D'Backs. Rodon has been terrific this season - Cy Young-caliber even - recording a 2.29 FIP and 1.09 WHIP while allowing only 2.72 runs per nine innings. Bumgarner, meanwhile, owns a 4.70 FIP and 1.37 WHIP and has been tagged for north of 4.4 runs per nine innings. The bullpen matchup isn't any better for the Snakes. Their relief corps' entered yesterday's action sporting a 5.11 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over the last seven games. The Giants 'pen had posted a 1.91 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over the same stretch. Take San Francisco (9*). |
|||||||
07-04-22 | Rangers v. Orioles -103 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baltimore first five innings over Texas at 1:05 pm et on Monday. Orioles starter Dean Kremer has done nothing but impress since laboring through his first start against the Guardians this season, allowing just one earned run over his last four outings, spanning 23 2/3 innings of work. Kremer checks in with an impressive 3.08 FIP and 1.14 WHIP in 28 innings this season, allowing only 1.61 runs per nine innings. Dane Dunning will counter for Texas on Monday. He's had a number of quality outings spoiled by a lack of run support and while that could very well turn out to be the issue again here, we'll note that Dunning's overall numbers aren't great. He has recorded a 4.03 FIP and 1.34 WHIP, giving up just shy of 4.2 runs per nine innings. We're not interested in the bullpen matchup here as the O's relief corps has seemingly hit a wall lately while the Rangers 'pen has thrived. Instead we'll back the O's in the first five innings as they look to build on the momentum gained from yesterday's victory in Minnesota. Take Baltimore first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
07-03-22 | White Sox v. Giants -105 | 13-4 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco over Chicago at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. White Sox starter Lucas Giolito continues to labor through what has been a trying campaign so far as he checks into Sunday's start sporting a 4.78 FIP and 1.53 WHIP. He's giving up just shy of 5.6 runs per nine innings. With the bullpens a virtual wash in this matchup given recent form, I'm comfortable fading Giolito at nearly a pk'em price. John Brebbia is expected to get the start for the Giants, likely in an 'opener' role. Brebbia has pitched well this season, recording a 2.04 FIP and 1.20 WHIP in 33 1/3 innings of work. In fact, he's quietly been effective over the course of his big league career, with a 3.29 FIP and 1.16 WHIP across five seasons, working 226 2/3 innings. Take San Francisco (9*). |
|||||||
07-02-22 | Red Sox -140 v. Cubs | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Game of the Month. My selection is on Boston over Chicago at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. The Cubs got the better of the Red Sox yesterday afternoon but I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday. Josh Winckowski will take the ball for Boston on Saturday. While he’s only worked 20 innings at the big league level, he has impressed, posting a 3.38 FIP and 1.45 WHIP. He’s giving up only 3.6 runs per nine innings. Alec Mills will counter for the Cubs on Saturday. He has recorded 8.27 FIP and 1.73 WHIP in 17 1/3 innings of work this season. Opponents are averaging more than 10 runs per nine innings off of him this season (small sample size, I know). Look for Boston to get back at Chicago here. Take Boston (10*). |
|||||||
07-02-22 | Braves -167 v. Reds | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Cincinnati at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Braves on the run-line last night and I like them again in this one as they send rookie Spencer Strider to the hill against Tyler Mahle of the Reds. Strider continues to impress in his rookie campaign, posting a 2.20 FIP and 1.08 WHIP while yielding only 3.35 runs per nine innings. Mahle has labored through the season, recording a 3.38 FIP and 1.27 WHIP, giving up north of 4.7 runs per nine innings. The real issue for the Reds is their bullpen, which has struggled mightily, posting a 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP over the last seven games (entering last night’s action). The Braves ‘pen has recorded a collective 2.48 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with 13 saves converted and only three blown on the road this season. Take Atlanta (8*). |
|||||||
06-30-22 | Braves v. Phillies -130 | Top | 4-14 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Atlanta at 6:05 pm et on Thursday. The Braves have gotten the better of the Phillies so far in this series. While I did expect Philadelphia to earn a victory in the opener of the series (and they probably should have were it not for a ton of missed scoring opportunities), I felt the Braves were deserving favorites last night with an underrated Kyle Wright on the mound against Ranger Suarez. Here, I believe the Phillies are rightful favorites as they send an underrated arm of their own to the mound in Aaron Nola. Nola has posted a sparkling 2.82 FIP and 0.90 WHIP this season, allowing just shy of 3.1 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Thursday will be Ian Anderson, who owns a 4.45 FIP and 1.45 WHIP, yielding north of 4.7 runs per nine innings. Entering last night's action, the Braves bullpen had posted a 4.73 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over the last seven games. Meanwhile, the Phillies relief corps had recorded a 2.57 ERA and 0.48 WHIP. Take Philadelphia (10*). |
|||||||
06-29-22 | Dodgers -184 v. Rockies | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday. As is often the case, the Rockies appear to be outmatched in terms of the starting pitching matchup on Wednesday. Julio Urias will get the start for the visiting Dodgers. While he hasn’t necessarily been his dominant self, he has still held up reasonably well for Los Angeles this season, posting a 4.10 FIP and 1.01 WHIP while limiting the damage to just 3.3 runs per nine innings. Those numbers are vastly superior to those of his counterpart on Wednesday, German Marquez. The Rockies veteran right-hander has recorded a 4.85 FIP and 1.50 WHIP, giving up more than 10 hits and three walks per nine innings, leading to a whopping 6.25 runs allowed per nine frames. Of course, the later innings should belong to the Dodgers here as well as their bullpen entered last night’s game sporting a 2.49 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over the last seven games. In stark contrast, the Rockies ‘pen had posted a collective 5.40 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Los Angeles (8*). |
|||||||
06-29-22 | Marlins -120 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
N.L. First Five Innings Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami first five innings over St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Wednesday. I’ll back the Marlins in the first five innings only on Wednesday as they send Sandy Alcantara to the mound against Andre Pallante of the Cardinals. Alcantara wasn’t at his best in his most recent start but still battled his way through seven innings against the Mets, ultimately foiled by a pair of home runs in the 5-3 setback. Keep in mind, he had given up just one home run in his previous nine outings so it’s not as if we’re seeing an emerging trend in that regard. Alcantara enters Wednesday’s start sporting a fantastic 3.03 FIP and 0.95 WHIP this season, yielding only 2.45 runs per nine innings in over 100 innings of work. Pallante started on four days’ rest for the first time in his young career last time out and pitched reasonably well in a 3-0 home loss to the Cubs (he lasted six innings). I question how he’ll hold up making a second consecutive start on short rest here, however. Pallante has recorded a pedestrian 4.28 FIP and 1.38 WHIP yet has somehow given up only 2.03 runs per nine innings. As good as the Cards defense is, I don’t believe that’s sustainable. We’ll aim to avoid the bullpen matchup here as the Cards have been in much better recent form in that regard and the Marlins have blown eight saves compared to nine converted on the road this season. Take Miami first five innings (10*). |
|||||||
06-29-22 | Pirates v. Nationals -124 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -124 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Washington over Pittsburgh at 1:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Pirates and Nationals will conclude their three-game series with a matinee affair in Washington on Wednesday. Pittsburgh will hand the ball to Mitch Keller. He has never really been able to find his way at the big league level and is in the midst of another trying campaign having posted a 4.05 FIP and 1.42 WHIP, allowing north of 4.9 runs per nine innings. To put it simply, he’s allowing far too many hits and walks, 9.1 and 3.7 per nine innings, respectively. Of course the Pirates bullpen isn’t likely to do much behind Keller here, noting it entered last night’s game sporting an ugly 6.07 ERA and 1.50 WHIP with no saves converted and three blown over the last seven games (prior to last night's game). Paolo Espino will get the nod for the Nationals. We won with Washington in Espino’s most recent start as he once again pitched effectively in an eventual 2-1 win over the Rangers last Friday. Espino has lowered his FIP to 3.60 and WHIP to 1.11 and is giving up only 2.43 runs per nine innings this season. We’re not talking about all that small of a sample size either as Espino has worked over 40 innings. The Nationals bullpen has been serviceable lately, recording a collective 3.86 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over its last seven contests (entering last night's game), converting four saves without blowing any over that stretch. Take Washington (10*). |
|||||||
06-28-22 | White Sox +117 v. Angels | Top | 11-4 | Win | 117 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
A.L. Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Chicago over Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the Angels in the first five innings in last night's eventual 4-3 win in the opener of this series. I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the White Sox on Tuesday, however. Johnny Cueto has 'turned back the clock' for Chicago so far this season, posting a 3.63 FIP and 1.15 WHIP, allowing less than 3.4 runs per nine innings. The White Sox bullpen continues to hold up well on the road this season, recording a collective 3.12 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Rookie Chase Silseth will counter for Los Angeles. Things haven't gone swimmingly in his first four big league starts as he has posted a 6.44 FIP and 1.47 WHIP, yielding just shy of 5.0 runs per nine innings. The Angels bullpen has been better this year than it was last season but that's not saying much. Note that the L.A. relief corps has only managed to convert 12 saves compared to eight blown at home this season. Take Chicago (10*). |
|||||||
06-28-22 | Braves v. Phillies -113 | 5-3 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia over Atlanta at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Phillies lost Bryce Harper to a broken thumb but did take three of four games from the Padres in San Diego. Now they return home to host the division-rival Braves who are fresh off an emotionally-charged series against former teammate Freddie Freeman and the Dodgers (they lost two out of three games). Atlanta is dealing with injury issues of its own with Ozzie Albies recently sidelined and Ronald Acuna Jr. dealing with a nagging foot injury. Charlie Morton will take the ball for the Braves on Tuesday. He’s been pitching well lately but it’s worth noting that his last three starts have come against the Pirates, Cubs and Giants. He has actually struggled on the road this season, recording a 5.64 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Overall this season, Morton has posted a 4.19 FIP and 1.28 WHIP, allowing just shy of five runs per nine innings. Behind Morton is a Braves bullpen that has posted a 4.62 ERA and 1.54 WHIP over its last seven games, most recently coughing up a late lead against the Dodgers on Sunday. Zack Wheeler will counter for Philadelphia. We backed the Phillies in his most recent start as they came up short by a 4-2 score against Texas. Wheeler didn’t have his best stuff on that afternoon but his overall numbers don’t lie. Wheeler owns a sparkling 2.27 FIP and a 1.11 WHIP, yielding just 3.25 runs per nine innings on the season. The Phillies bullpen turned things around on its most recent road trip, checking in with a 3.33 ERA and 0.74 WHIP over its last seven contests. Take Philadelphia (8*). |
|||||||
06-27-22 | White Sox v. Angels -125 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles first five innings over Chicago at 9:35 pm et on Monday. We won with the White Sox yesterday as they salvaged the finale of their four-game series against the Orioles but just barely as they prevailed by a 4-3 score. Here, we'll go back to fading Chicago, at least in the first five innings, as it heads to Anaheim to open a series against the Angels. Los Angeles also won yesterday, avoiding a sweep at the hands of the division-rival Mariners. On Monday, Los Angeles will hand the ball to Noah Syndergaard. While he's had an up-and-down first season in Anaheim, he has posted a 4.02 FIP and 1.20 WHIP, allowing just shy of 4.2 runs per nine innings. I liked the way he battled in his most recent start, working into the eighth inning for the second time in his last five outings. Chicago will counter with Lucas Giolito. He simply hasn't been able to regain previous form this season, recording a 5.08 FIP and 1.56 WHIP. Opponents have lit him up for north of 5.8 runs per nine innings. It seems that something just isn't right with the right-hander as he's been tagged for 15 earned runs in his last two starts alone. I don't see any considerable advantage for the Angels in the later innings in this one - in fact, the White Sox bullpen has been a bright spot, posting a collective 3.03 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with 12 saves converted and only five blown on the road this season. The Angels have converted 11 saves while blowing eight at home. We'll back the Halos in the first five innings only here. Take Los Angeles first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
06-27-22 | Rangers -135 v. Royals | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas over Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Rangers just dropped two of three games at home against the Nationals. Not good. They're still 5-4 over their last nine games and have a favorable starting pitching matchup in Monday's series-opener against the Royals in Kansas City. I hesitate to say that Rangers starter Martin Perez has 'turned back the clock' this season as he's pitching better than he has at any point previously in his career. Perez checks in sporting a Cy Young Award-caliber 2.62 FIP and 1.13 WHIP, allowing only 2.47 runs per nine innings. He already tamed the Royals once this season, yielding just one earned run over 6 1/3 innings back in early May. You would have to go back four starts against Kansas City to find the last time Perez didn't pitch his team to victory (back in 2019). Royals starter Kris Bubic is coming off back-to-back solid outings including arguably his best start of the season last time out against the Angels (he allowed two earned runs over six innings). His overall numbers don't lie, however, as he's posted a 5.36 FIP and 1.79 WHIP this season. Opponents have reached Bubic for north of 7.4 runs per nine innings. Of course, there's little reason to trust the Royals bullpen as it has posted a collective 5.25 ERA and 1.60 WHIP at home this season. The Rangers 'pen has actually held up well, recording a 3.09 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over the last seven games and a 3.22 ERA and 1.26 WHIP on the road, where it has converted nine saves while blowing four. Take Texas (8*). |
|||||||
06-26-22 | Orioles v. White Sox -195 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago over Baltimore at 2:10 pm et on Sunday. The White Sox have looked awful in the first three games of this series - there's no question about that. I do expect them to bounce back on Sunday as they send their best starter to the hill in Dylan Cease against Jordan Lyles of the Orioles. Cease has quietly put together a terrific campaign so far, recording a 2.59 FIP and 1.28 WHIP while allowing just under 3.9 runs per nine innings. In fact, he hasn't allowed a single earned run over his last five starts. While the White Sox bullpen has struggled for the most part this season, it has actually shown signs of turning things around lately, recording a collective 3.51 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over its last seven games entering yesterday's action (it tossed 2+ innings of shutout ball in yesterday's loss). Jordan Lyles has looked very 'Jordan Lyles-like' for the Orioles this season, posting a 4.31 FIP and 1.50 WHIP and giving up just shy of 5.5 runs per nine innings. The White Sox saw him last September and lit him up for five earned runs over just 3 2/3 innings in a 7-2 victory. Take Chicago (6*). |
|||||||
06-26-22 | Astros v. Yankees -155 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Houston at 1:35 pm et on Sunday. The Yankees could just as easily have dropped all three games in this series as they've only managed to salvage the opener in come-from-behind walk-off fashion. I do look for them to close out the series on a positive note on Sunday. Jose Urquidy will take the ball for Houston. He checks in sporting a pedestrian 4.75 FIP and 1.46 WHIP, allowing north of 11.0 walks and just shy of 5.0 runs per nine innings. It's been a much different story for Yankees starter Nestor Cortes Jr. He has posted a 3.32 FIP and 0.96 WHIP, allowing only 2.43 runs per nine innings. Cortes has yielded 4.8 fewer hits per nine innings compared to Urquidy. As I've mentioned previously in this series, the bullpens are virtually a wash with both relief corps' pitching effectively. Here, I look for the Yankees bats against Urquidy to prove to be the difference. Take New York (10*). |
|||||||
06-25-22 | Mets -144 v. Marlins | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York over Miami at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Mets took the opener of this series last night and we'll get behind them on Saturday as they look to continue their recent dominance over the Marlins. Chris Bassitt will take the ball for New York. He's been good but not great this season. He deserved a better fate than a 6-2 loss against these same Marlins last week as he allowed just three earned runs on five hits while striking out nine and walking only two in 6 1/3 innings of work. For the season, Bassitt has posted a 3.80 FIP and 1.17 WHIP. His 4.17 runs allowed per nine innings is a little concerning but still a far cry from what his opponent today, Trevor Rogers, has given up. Rogers may not be long for the Marlins rotation if he continues to struggle. He's recorded an ugly 4.89 FIP and 1.62 WHIP this season while yielding just shy of 6.3 runs per nine innings. Note that he's allowing 2.3 more hits and 1.8 more walks per nine innings compared to Bassitt. The Bullpens are virtually a wash in this matchup but we can confidently get behind the Mets with the expectation that they can build a considerable early lead. Take New York (8*). |
|||||||
06-25-22 | Blue Jays v. Brewers -151 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee over Toronto at 4:10 pm et on Saturday. The Blue Jays got the better of the Brewers in last night's series opener, using a strong starting pitching edge to their advantage with Alek Manoah against Adrian Houser. Here, we should see a different story unfold as it's the Brewers that have the advantage on the mound with ace Corbin Burnes going up against a struggling Yusei Kikuchi. Burnes has had a few hiccups with his command in the early going this season but has generally straightened things out and owns a terrific 2.91 FIP and 0.92 WHIP. Opponents are averaging only 2.63 runs per nine innings against the right-hander. It's been a much different story for Kikuchi. The Blue Jays hoped he would provide some stability at the back of their rotation after coming over from the Mariners but that hasn't been the case. Kikuchi checks in sporting a 5.53 FIP and 1.52 WHIP. He's giving up just shy of 6.0 walks and almost two home runs per nine innings with opponents averaging 5.43 runs off of him. Off last night's loss, the Brewers don't figure to be in a forgiving mood on Saturday. Note that Milwaukee should also have the edge in the later innings as its bullpen entered last night's game sporting a 1.21 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over the last seven games. In stark contrast, the Jays 'pen recorded a 7.29 ERA and 1.77 WHIP over the same stretch. Take Milwaukee (8*). |
|||||||
06-25-22 | Cubs v. Cardinals -175 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Chicago at 2:15 pm et on Saturday. The Cardinals were shut out in last night's series-opener against the Cubs - their second consecutive loss. I look for them to bounce back on Saturday as they have the right pitcher on the mound in Miles Mikolas. The right-hander has posted a 3.51 FIP and 0.97 WHIP this season, yielding only 2.84 runs per nine innings. In 10 career starts against Chicago, Mikolas has posted a 2.70 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. You would have to go back four starts to find the last time the Cubs defeated the Cards with Mikolas starting, back in July 2019. Interestingly, his counterpart on that night was Kyle Hendricks, who of course locked down the Cards in last night's shutout victory. Adrian Sampson will get a spot start for Chicago after an effective extended relief appearance. In limited big league work last year, Sampson posted a terrific 2.80 ERA but his 5.72 FIP told a much different story. Prior to getting called up this season, Sampson had recorded a pedestrian 3.81 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 28 1/3 innings pitched at AAA Iowa. The Cardinals bullpen has been among the best in baseball lately, posting a collective 1.80 ERA and 0.84 WHIP over the last seven games. The Cubs 'pen has been solid lately as well, but certainly hasn't been reliable on the road this season, recording a 4.78 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Take St. Louis (8*). |
|||||||
06-24-22 | Cubs v. Cardinals -151 | 3-0 | Loss | -151 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Louis over Chicago at 8:15 pm et on Friday. The Cubs are a mess right now and it's not just one area of the game they're struggling in. Chicago has dropped 14 of its last 17 games overall and might have hit rock-bottom in Pittsburgh this week, losing three out of four games, giving up a whopping 32 runs while committing 10 errors in the field. Things aren't likely to get any easier as they head to St. Louis to face a Cardinals club that managed a 2-2 split in Milwaukee earlier this week and checks in 8-6 over its last 14 games. Kyle Hendricks was once a steadying force in the Cubs rotation but not this season. He has posted a 5.19 FIP and 1.35 WHIP while allowing north of 5.4 runs per nine innings. While the Cubs bullpen behind Hendricks has held up well lately, it still owns a collective 4.84 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the road this season. Andre Pallante will get his fourth start of the season for the Cardinals. He's held up reasonably well overall this season, recording a 4.02 FIP and 1.34 WHIP. Interestingly, he's done a tremendous job of limiting damage, yielding just under 1.7 runs per nine innings. Having a tremendous defense behind him helps. I mentioned the Cubs woes in the field - on the flip side, you would have to go back eight games to find the last time the Cardinals committed an error. The St. Louis bullpen has posted a collective 3.62 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with eight saves converted and only two blown at home this season and has been even better lately, recording a 2.66 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over its last seven games. Take St. Louis (8*). |
|||||||
06-24-22 | Orioles v. White Sox -157 | 4-1 | Loss | -157 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago first five innings over Baltimore at 8:10 pm et on Friday. After a productive three-game series against the Blue Jays earlier in the week, the White Sox were blanked in the opener of this series with the Orioles last night. I look for them to get back on track on Friday, at least early on in this rematch with Baltimore. Austin Voth will get another spot start for the Orioles. He worked just 2 2/3 innings against the Rays last Sunday and not a lot will likely be asked of him here either. I do expect the White Sox bats to get to him, however, noting that Voth has posted an ugly 4.71 FIP and 2.03 WHIP in 24 2/3 innings of work this season with opponents averaging a whopping 8.76 runs per nine innings against him. Note that while Voth managed to get through 2 2/3 innings relatively unscathed against the Rays last time out, things might have been different were the Rays not thrown at home on a play in the second inning. Chicago will counter with Michael Kopech. While he's had some command issues at times, he has still recorded a terrific 0.99 WHIP to go along with a 3.49 FIP. I mentioned the command issues as Kopech is yielding 4.0 walks per nine innings but he's managed to limit the damage (he allows just 2.7 runs per nine innings) thanks to holding opponents to just under 5.0 hits and 0.6 home runs per nine innings. We'll play the first five innings only in this one as the O's do hold a significant advantage when it comes to the bullpens in this game (Baltimore's bullpen has a 1.50 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over the last seven games while Chicago's relief corps' has posted a 4.91 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over the same stretch). Take Chicago first five innings (8*). |
|||||||
06-24-22 | Nationals +154 v. Rangers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 154 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington over Texas at 8:05 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Nationals as they look to bounce back from a shutout loss in Baltimore (we won with the Orioles in that game) and start this three-game interleague set in Texas with a victory on Friday. The starting pitching matchup will feature Paolo Espino of the Nationals against Dane Dunning for the Rangers. While Dunning had a terrific campaign last year, he's struggled here in 2022. The right-hander enters Friday's start with a 4.00 FIP and 1.33 WHIP, allowing 4.5 runs per nine innings. You would have to go back three home starts to find the last time he was on the hill for a Rangers win here in Texas. Espino will get another spot start for the Nats. While he's made only two starts, he has worked 35 1/3 innings this season, posting a solid 3.39 FIP and 1.08 WHIP. Opponents have reached Espino for just north of 2.5 runs per nine innings. While the Nationals bullpen has been awful on the road for the most part this season, it has shown signs of turning things around lately, recording a collective 3.51 ERA and 1.33 WHIP over the last seven games overall. The Rangers 'pen has converted only eight saves while blowing six here at home this season. As poorly as things have gone for Washington, it actually averages more runs per game on the road (4.4) than Texas does at home (4.2). Finally, I'll note that Texas checks in a woeful 14-23 in its last 37 games as a favorite, outscored by 0.9 runs on average along the way. Take Washington (10*). |
|||||||
06-23-22 | Phillies v. Padres -140 | 6-2 | Loss | -140 | 14 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego over Philadelphia at 9:40 pm et on Thursday. While we did back Ranger Suarez in his most recent start - a victory over the Washington Nationals last week - I won’t hesitate to switch gears and fade the right-hander as he takes the mound against the Padres on Thursday. Suarez hasn’t been able to regain the form that saw him excel in the Philadelphia rotation last year. He checks in sporting a 4.25 FIP and 1.51 WHIP with opponents averaging just a tick below 5.0 runs per nine innings against him. In stark contrast, Padres starter Joe Musgrove has firmly planted himself in the early N.L. Cy Young Award conversation, posting a 2.66 FIP and 0.92 WHIP. Opponents are averaging barely north of 2.0 runs per nine innings against him. Of course, the later innings should belong to the Padres pitching staff in this one as well as their bullpen has been excellent this season, particularly at home where they’ve posted a collective 3.04 ERA and 0.88 WHIP with seven saves converted and only three blown (entering yesterday’s action). The Phillies ‘pen remains a work-in-progress, recording a 4.65 ERA and 1.62 WHIP on the road this season. Take San Diego (8*). |
|||||||
06-23-22 | Astros v. Yankees -121 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
A.L. Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York over Houston at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Yankees in thrilling come-from-behind fashion last night and I won't hesitate to go right back to the well with them as they return home to host the Houston Astros on Thursday. We have a fine starting pitching matchup between left-hander Framber Valdez of the Astros and righty Jameson Taillon of the Yankees in this series-opener. There's not a lot to separate the two starters this season but here we'll find reason to give the edge to Taillon. Note that he has posted a terrific 3.01 FIP and 1.06 WHIP this season. While Valdez has had some issues with command at times, issuing north of 3.0 walks per nine innings, Taillon has been in complete control, allowing just 1.1 walk per nine innings. Opponents are averaging just 2.7 runs per nine innings off of Taillon this season. Of course, the Yankees have been dominant at home (and just about everywhere else) this season, going 29-7 while averaging 5.0 runs per game in the Bronx. Their +145 run differential is more than 2X greater than all but the Dodgers (they're +124). While the Astros hold down the A.L. West Division lead by a comfortable margin, they've only outscored the opposition by 61 runs on the campaign. Take New York (10*). |
|||||||
06-23-22 | Giants v. Braves -158 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over San Francisco at 12:20 pm et on Thursday. I’ll back the Braves in Thursday’s series finale against the Giants. As is often the case, we’re able to get behind Atlanta starter Kyle Wright at a very reasonable price. He’s pitched well this season, recording a 2.70 FIP and 1.10 WHIP with opponents reaching him for less than 3.2 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Thursday will be Alex Wood, who broke into the bigs with the Braves. Wood has been up-and-down, posting a 3.28 FIP and 1.31 WHIP. Opponents are averaging just shy of 4.5 runs per nine innings off of him. His 5.25 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in five previous daytime starts is concerning, as is the fact that he’ll be facing a Braves club that entered last night’s game against southpaw Carlos Rodon having gone 16-7 while averaging 6.0 runs per game against left-handed starters this season. Take Atlanta (9*). |