Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-18-18 | Red Wings v. Lightning -1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Lightning Puck Line (-1.5 goals) vs Detroit Red Wings, Thursday at 7:35 PM ET |
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10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots -3 | Top | 40-43 | Push | 0 | 32 h 27 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON New England -3 over Kansas City, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET We view this as a game the Pats will want to make a statement. Many have now said that KC is the team to beat in the AFC which is the title that has been held by the Pats for multiple years. Do you think Belichick & Brady will want to squash that sentiment in this game? Add to that this is a revenge game from the season opener last year and you can pretty much guarantee they want to make a statement here. New England has had extra time to get ready for this huge home match up after beating the Colts 38-24 on Thursday night. While we believe the Chiefs are a very solid team, we also feel they have been very fortunate to date. They’ve been outgained in 4 of their 5 games (-300 yards on the season) and they have the worst defense in the NFL allowing 462 YPG (ranking 31st in pass defense & 24th in rush defense). To be 5-0 in that situation means they’ve absolutely gotten some fortunate breaks. Last week they beat a very good Jacksonville team 30-14 but were handed the win by the Jags who turned the ball over 5 times including throwing 2 picks in the endzone, another at the 1-yard line, and also throwing a pick 6. The Jags made 5 official trips inside KC’s 20 yard line and came away with a grand total of 7 points on those possessions. QB Patrick Mahomes came back to earth throwing 2 picks and 0 TD’s. We’re positive Belichick will have a very solid defensive gameplan for Mahomes in this one. The Patriots offense is peaking right now scoring 38 points in each of their last 2 games, they have WR Julian Edelman back in the line up, and Tom Brady should have a field day vs the 31st rank pass defense. We simply don’t see the Patriots in this price range at home very often as they’ve been a favorite of less than 4 points only 4 times since 2010 (3-1 ATS). They are also a fantastic 18-3 ATS at home as a favorite of less than a TD since December of 2010. KC is playing their 4th road game already this season and this is a very dangerous spot for them. The Pats are 93-15 SU at home since December of 2006 and with this number sitting as low as it is, the value is definitely with the Patriots. Lay the small number with New England. |
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10-14-18 | Rams v. Broncos +7 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 28 h 11 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver +7 over LA Rams, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET The Rams finally had to leave the state of California last week and they almost got clipped for the first time this year. They came from behind in the 4th quarter to beat Seattle 33-31. IT was just their 2nd road game this season with their first being @ Oakland to open the season. Now LA is on the road for the 2nd straight week and in altitude. They should be catching the Broncos in an ornery mood after playing a terrible game on the road last week @ NY Jets. The Denver defense gave up an uncharacteristic 323 yards on the GROUND to the Jets, the most by a Bronco defense since 2010. They obviously were not physically or mentally ready for that game and we expect a huge bounce back on Sunday. While they have struggled on the road winning just 1 of their last 12 games, Denver is a different animal at home. They are 2-1 here this year with their only loss coming 27-23 to 5-0 Kansas City, a game that Denver led 23-13 midway through the 4th quarter. They were +3 to +3.5 in that game vs an undefeated KC team and now they are getting a full TD here vs a comparable team. You almost never see Denver as that type of dog at home as this is just the 4th time since 1980 they’ve been a home dog of +7 or more. The Rams looked unbeatable early in the season vs Oakland and Arizona but those wins now don’t look quite as impressive as those teams have a combined record of just 2-8. After their first two games vs weak competition, their defense has not looked very good giving up 23, 31, and 31 points their last 3. Their run defense has really struggled allowing 5 YPC which is 29th in the NFL. That’s a problem here vs a Denver rushing attack that ranks #1 in the NFL averaging 5.6 YPC. This sets up as a dangerous game for the Rams and we’ll grab the generous points with the home team here. |
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10-14-18 | Colts +2 v. Jets | Top | 34-42 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Indianapolis +2 over NY Jets, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Big mismatch at the QB position here with Luck vs Darnold. The much better and more experienced QB is getting points which is always worth a look. People are overreacting to the Jets crushing the Broncos last week. It wasn’t a huge surprise as Denver has been a terrible road team under head coach Vance Joseph now losing 11 of their last 12 games away from home. Darnold had to do very little in that game (completed just 10 passes) as the Jets ran for a ridiculous 323 yards. It’s not as if the Jets were some terrific running team as they were averaging just 88 YPG on the ground coming into last week’s game. Now they face an Indy defense that is allowing only 4 YPC which is 10th best in the NFL. NY won’t run wild this week and Darnold will have more pressure to make plays on Sunday. Let’s also not forget that the Jets had lost 3 straight games (scoring just 41 combined points in those 3 games) heading into their impressive win vs Denver. The Colts have had 10 days to rest up and prepare for this game after losing @ New England on Thursday night. Indy desperately needs a win here as they come in off three straight losses. Two were down to the wire, tight games @ Philadelphia (lost 20-16) and vs Houston (lost 37-34 in OT). The Colts have outgained 3 of their 5 opponents and their defense is actually quite solid. They are very good at getting to the QB (3rd in sacks per game and 6th in sack percentage) so we wouldn’t be at all surprised if Darnold is rushed in to a few mistakes in this game. Andrew Luck is a great 22-4 SU and 21-5 ATS the game following a SU & ATS loss. He is rolling right now as well throwing for over 800 yards and 7 TD’s his last 2 games. We like the Colts to win this game outright on Sunday. |
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10-13-18 | Colorado v. USC -6.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 33 h 20 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* USC Trojans (-) over Colorado Buffaloes, Saturday at 10:30 PM ET: Game #156 |
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10-07-18 | Jaguars +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 14-30 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 59 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Jacksonville +3 over Kansas City, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We’re getting points with the better team here. Much has been made of KC’s offense thus far but we expect defenses to catch up with their scheme. We could see it on Monday night when KC went into Denver and had only 13 points with under 7:00 minutes remaining in the game. They did score 2 TD’s late but for much of the game their offense was held in check by a pretty average Denver defense that ranks middle of the pack in most key categories. Now they face a Jacksonville defense that ranks #2 in the NFL in efficiency, #1 in PPG allowed, #1 in YPG allowed, and #2 in yards per play allowed. KC is on a short week after a come from behind division win on Monday night which is not a great spot for them. While the Jags might have the best defense in the NFL, the Chiefs might have the worst. They rank near the bottom of the NFL in many key categories including total defense, scoring defense, YPP defense, rush defense, yards per pass attempt allowed, and defensive efficiency. The Jaguar offense has been solid with the exception of one game this year vs the Titans. They’ve scored 31 points in 2 of their last 3 games and will put points up here vs a bad KC defense. We rate Jacksonville with a big edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball which normally doesn’t equate to an underdog which is what we have here. KC is overvalued right now because of their offense. They’ve put up big numbers however all 4 of their opponents rank 20th or lower in pass defense. They now run into a great defense in Jacksonville that ranks #1 in pass defense and a team who also has a pretty good offense. The yards per play differential with these two teams in tells us a lot with Jacksonville at +1.3 YPP (one of the best in the NFL) and KC at -0.1 YPP. This is one of those games a few months from now people may look back and wonder why they didn’t take advantage of Jacksonville as an underdog in this spot. We’ll make sure we do. Take the Jags here. |
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10-06-18 | Iowa -7 v. Minnesota | Top | 48-31 | Win | 100 | 39 h 27 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa Hawkeyes (-) over Minnesota Golden Gophers, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #387 |
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09-30-18 | Ravens +3 v. Steelers | Top | 26-14 | Win | 100 | 31 h 50 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Baltimore +3 over Pittsburgh, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET We love looking at teams with the MUCH better defense getting points. That’s absolutely what we have here as Baltimore has the 5th most efficient defense in the NFL right now (according to Football Outsiders) and Pittsburgh is 19th. The Ravens are allowing just 17 PPG while the Steelers have given up 30 PPG on the season. On top of that Baltimore is allowing 138 fewer yards per game so overall ranking 1st in the NFL on total defense so a big edge defensively for us in this one. The Pittsburgh offense looks as if they are rolling the last 2 weeks putting up big numbers vs KC & Tampa. However, let’s put that in perspective as those team defenses rank 31st and 32nd in total defense. The one decent defense the Steelers played this year was Cleveland and they scored just 21 in that game. Baltimore’s offense is looking much better than it did the last few seasons as they are already averaging 32 PPG this season. They will absolutely be able to move the ball vs this porous Pitt defense on Sunday. Pittsburgh is on a short week after winning Monday night at Tampa 30-27 – nearly blowing a 30-10 lead because of their poor defense. Steelers just 3-9 ATS their last 12 games off an outright win and 12 of last 20 in this series have been decided by 3 or less. The dog is 9-3-1 ATS last 12 meetings and we simply think Baltimore is the better team this year. Take the points. |
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09-30-18 | Browns v. Raiders -2.5 | Top | 42-45 | Win | 100 | 26 h 29 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Oakland -2.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET If Jon Gruden doesn't win this game he might just get run out of Oakland along with his 100 million dollar contract! The Raiders have played well this year but haven't cracked the win column yet, that changes today. Oakland has outgained the Rams and Dolphins and were barely outgained by 12 yards in Denver but are still 0-3. The Raiders have the 11th best offensive efficiency rating in the NFL this year and that's going against a solid group of defenses. Oakland's defensive efficiency is skewed as they've faced two top 8 offenses this year and Denver who is 15th. What we're saying is this, the Raiders are far better than their record indicates and are only laying a field goal or less in this contest. Cleveland comes into this game with their first win since 2016 as they beat the Jets. Really, a win over a bad Jets team with another rookie QB makes this team even on a neutral field against the Raiders? The Browns have lost 22 straight road losses and have their own rookie QB making his first start ever on the road. Cleveland's offense is one of the worst in the league at 30th in OEFF and 20 points (average) isn't going to be enough to keep pace with the Raiders who are 6th in the league in total yards per game (400ypg). The Browns last 16 road losses have come by an average of 11.5PPG! Need we say more. Play the Raiders. |
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09-29-18 | South Carolina +1 v. Kentucky | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 51 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Carolina Gamecocks (+) over Kentucky Wildcats, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET: Game #141 |
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09-27-18 | Vikings +7.5 v. Rams | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Minnesota +7.5 over LA Rams, Thursday at 8:20 PM ET The Vikings are now backed into a corner having lost last week to Buffalo and tied the week before vs Green Bay. This is a much bigger game for Minnesota coming in with a 1-1-1 record. The Vikes come into this one angry after a complete no-show last week at home vs Buffalo. They became the first team since 1995 to lose outright as a 16-point or higher favorite. A letdown was expected from Minnesota after an overtime tie with Green Bay a week earlier and this game with the Rams on deck. The yardage vs Buffalo was dead even but Minny had 3 turnovers while the Bills didn’t turn the ball over. Buffalo jumped out to a 24-0 lead early in the 2nd quarter which took Minnesota completely out of their offensive game plan. They only ran the ball 6 times while attempting 55 passes. The Rams are obviously very good but we feel they come in a bit overvalued after winning each of their first 3 games by double digits. Remember two of those wins were against Oakland and Arizona who have combined to go 0-6. The look ahead line on this game before the season began was the Rams -3. Now we’re getting a full TD with one of the top teams in the NFL coming off an embarrassing loss. They’re facing the Rams with both starting CB’s out and on top of that, Viking head coach Mike Zimmer is 11-2 ATS when off a loss and facing a non-NFC North foe. Take the points here. |
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09-23-18 | Broncos v. Ravens -5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Baltimore -10 over Denver, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's AFC GAME OF THE MONTH The Broncos are easily the weakest 2-0 team in the NFL. Their two wins have come against Seattle & Oakland by a combined 4 points. Those two teams have yet to win a game and BOTH led Denver in the 4th quarter before the Broncos rallied for a tight win. Now Denver has to travel to the east coast in their first road game of the year and they are a team that is 1-9 SU their last 10 road games. Denver’s once vaunted defense looks like they have lost their luster. Especially vs the pass where Oakland’s David Carr lit them up last week for 288 yards completing 29 of his 32 attempts. A week earlier Russell Wilson threw for 298 yards and 3 TD’s on this Denver defense. Now they face Joe Flacco who has thrown for 620 yards and 5 TD’s in his two games. Expect a big day from him. The Ravens are off a Thursday night loss @ Cincinnati so they have had extra time to get ready for this home game. They actually outgained the Bengals in that game and despite their 1-1 record Baltimore is +268 in total yardage on the year. Since 2003, undefeated teams that are underdogs of more than three points on the road are just 36-52-2 ATS (41%) against the spread. Baltimore by a TD or more in this one. |
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09-22-18 | Air Force v. Utah State -10.5 | Top | 32-42 | Loss | -108 | 36 h 59 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah State Aggies (-) over Air Force Falcons, Saturday at 10:15 PM ET: Game #392 |
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09-15-18 | Washington -4.5 v. Utah | Top | 21-7 | Win | 100 | 35 h 44 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Washington Huskies (-) over Utah Utes, Saturday at 10 PM ET: Game #205 |
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09-09-18 | Cowboys +3 v. Panthers | Top | 8-16 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Dallas +3 over Carolina, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET The Carolina Panthers made some changes in the offseason and we’re not sure they were good ones. After ranking 24th in offensive efficiency in 2016, then moving up to 9th, the Panthers decided to bring in a new offensive coordinator? Carolina recycled longtime NFL coach Norv Turner but has the game evolved into something he’s not? Looking back we see Norv Turner’s last two offensive units in Minnesota ranked 25th or worse in total yards per game and before that his Browns offense finished 18th. The last year he was with the Chargers they were 31st. Last year the Panthers were 16th in total yards per game (average) and 9th in OEFF. We really don’t think this will be a good fit for QB Cam Newton either. The Panthers had a positive point differential last year at +1.8PPG. The Panthers defense was very good again last year finishing with our 9th ranked defensive efficiency unit while allowing just 21PPG. In the late stages of last season though this defensive unit faltered a little allowing 25.4PPG in their last seven contests. Dallas had a down season a year ago and a lot of that had to do with injuries and suspensions. The Cowboys were slightly better than the Panthers in total yards per game and 10th in OEFF. That was without RB Elliott for the first four games of the season. The Boys finished last season strong with wins in 3 of four games, scoring 30+ in two of those. In terms of DEFF the Cowboys ranked a poor 25th but also only allowed 20.1PPG which was top 10. Dallas is on a 6-1 ATS run on the road and we like a close game throughout. |
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09-08-18 | Michigan State -6 v. Arizona State | Top | 13-16 | Loss | -102 | 36 h 58 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Michigan State Spartans (-) over Arizona State Sun Devils, Saturday at 10:45 ET: Game #393 |
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08-12-18 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Rockies | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET |
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08-09-18 | Rangers v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Yankees Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Texas Rangers, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET |
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08-05-18 | Tigers v. A's -1.5 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Oakland A's Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Detroit Tigers, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET |
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07-21-18 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Brewers | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line (-1.5 runs) @ Milwaukee Brewers, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET |
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07-15-18 | Angels v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line (-1.5 runs) vs Los Angeles Angels, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET |
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06-08-18 | Warriors -4 v. Cavs | Top | 108-85 | Win | 100 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Golden State Warriors -4 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 9PM ET – We’ve talked about this a million times already but the Cavaliers defense is really, really bad and LeBron is a huge part of that equation. If you want to get the GOAT you MUST play both end of the court. Too many times in Game 3 did the Warriors run a ball screen action and LBJ would simply switch off Durant WAY too easily. The callous nature of Cleveland’s defense stems from the best player and it’s easily the reason why they don’t stand a chance in this series. Our thought process here is simple. Golden State and the Splash Brothers (Klay and Steph) got wide open looks in Game 3 (7 of 27) and didn’t make them. It wasn’t a product of the Cavs defense but more of those two just having an off night. The law of averages tells us they’ll shoot much better here. Golden State didn’t even play well as a team in G3 and they still won by 7-points. The off season has already begun for the Cavs and the LeBron sweepstakes will start as soon as this game ends. Cleveland is just 17-33-1 ATS at home this season and granted the vast majority of those were as favorites but it’s become evident this is not a championship caliber roster and the Warriors are just that much better. *I would wait to bet this game until closer to game time as I would expect more money to come in on Cleveland*. BET GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS |
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06-06-18 | Warriors v. Cavs +4 | Top | 110-102 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Cleveland Cavaliers (+4) over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET - This is a tough call but the statistician in me says you have to bet the Cavs in this one even though they didn't pass the eye test in the last game. The extra rest, being down 0-2 and having heard how this series is going to be a sweep should have the Cavs focused and playing at their highest level tonight. Cleveland has ripped off 8 straight at home in the playoffs after losing Game 1 against the Pacers in their opening round series. The Cavs have lost three straight games just three times this season and are 15-5 SU at home this season after a loss in their previous game. The Cavs home/road dichotomies are significant and let's not discount their 37-13 SU record at home this season. Even though they had a horrible spread record at home this year that was largely as a favorite as they have been a home dog just 4 times (2-2 ATS). Golden State has not been as good on the road in the playoffs with a 4-4 SU record and a total point differential of just +3PPG in those eight games. If there is a game the Cavs are going to win it's this one. Bet Cleveland plus the points. |
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06-06-18 | Mariners +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Seattle Mariners Run Line (+1.5 runs) @ Houston Astros, Wednesday at 8:10 ET |
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05-28-18 | Warriors v. Rockets +6.5 | Top | 101-92 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Houston Rockets +6 over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET - We will stick with our pre-playoff prediction that Houston is going to win the 2018 Finals and clearly they must win this game to get there. The value on Houston at home is obvious here as they started the series as a 2-point favorite and are now a 6-point dog. The Rockets have been home dogs just two times this entire season. Houston had the 2nd best home point differential in the NBA at +9.4PPG during the regular season. Golden State had the 3rd best road differential at +4.4PPG which is clearly not enough to get this spread win. Against the top 8 teams in the West the Warriors were 24-17 SU with an average differential of +3.6PPG. In that same situation, versus West top 8 teams, the Rockets were 32-10 SU with a +6PPG differential. Of course the big storyline here is the injury to Chris Paul but the reality is that James Harden is still the type of player that can carry this team offensively by himself. The biggest negative for the Rockets is the loss of Paul on the defensive end of the floor but the Rockets will shoot much better at home in the second half than they did in Game 6 at Golden State. Houston is 6-2 SU at home off a loss and even if they don’t win this game outright they’ll still get the cover. Grab the points. |
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05-24-18 | Warriors -1 v. Rockets | Top | 94-98 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 11 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Golden State Warriors (-1) over Houston Rockets, 9PM ET - The Warriors blew Game 4 and lost on Tuesday which ended their 16 straight home playoff winning streak. Golden State has been the best team in the NBA when coming off a loss since 2013 with a 88-26 SU record. This season the Warriors were 22-5 SU off a beat, including 11-1 on the road. Golden State shot under 40% in Game 4 which was clearly uncharacteristic as they are the best shooting team in the league at nearly 50%. The Warriors have played three playoff games in which they shot under 40% in the previous game and they've won all three by an average of 18PPG. Houston rallied in the fourth quarter to win Game 4 after being down 10 points and evened the series at two wins apiece. Yes, the Rockets have been a great home team all season long but the play here is on the World Champs off a loss. GST on a 10-4 ATS streak when playing in Houston. |
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05-23-18 | Cavs v. Celtics +1 | Top | 83-96 | Win | 100 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics (+1) over Cleveland Cavaliers, 8:30PM ET - The Cavs were one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA all season long, ranking 29th in DEFF and also second to last in opponents field goal percentage defense allowing 47.3%. In Games 3 & 4 (on the road) the C's shot a horrendous 39.2% and 41.2% which had more to do with the setting than the actual Cavs defense. Cleveland shot the ball extremely well at 48.7% in G3 and 50.6% in G4 from the field and 50% (25 of 47) from beyond the arc. The Cavaliers jumped out to an early lead in Game 4 and the Celtics never recovered. Let's not overreact to the last game or forget how the Celtics dominated the Cavs in the first two games of this series. Boston has NOT lost at home in the Playoffs and are 36-14 SU at home on the season with an average point differential of +5.9PPG. The Cavaliers are average on the road this year with a 24-24 SU record and a negative differential of -.4PPG. Digging deeper we find the Cavs are a horrendous 9-18 SU on the road against other Playoff teams this season. Boston's 9-0 SU home record is impressive and it includes two wins over this same Cavs team by 25 and 13 points respectively. The young Cavaliers bounce back here. |
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05-21-18 | Celtics +7 v. Cavs | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics (+7) over Cleveland Cavaliers, 8:30PM ET - We hit with the Cavs in Game 3 as they were backed into a corner and had to win to stay alive in this series. Yes, we obviously expected the Cavs to win that game but didn't expect a 30-point blowout. The young Celtics faced that adversity and will bounce back here. The Cavs were one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA all season long, ranking 29th in DEFF and also second to last in opponents field goal percentage defense allowing 47.3%. In Game 3 the C's shot a horrendous 39.2% which had more to do with the setting than the actual Cavs defense. Cleveland shot the ball extremely well at 48.7% from the field and 50% (17 of 34) from beyond the arc. The Cavaliers jumped out to an early lead in Game 3 and the Celtics never recovered. Let's not overreact to the last game or forget how the Celtics dominated the Cavs in the first two games of this series. Boston is 10-5 SU this season when playing on the road off a loss and have been fantastic as a dog this season. The Celtics are 20-9 ATS when getting 7.5 or more points this season while the Cavaliers are just 18-32 ATS as a favorite in that same price range. Expect a game down to the wire in Game 4 on Monday. |
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05-20-18 | Rockets +8 v. Warriors | Top | 85-126 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Houston Rockets +8 over Golden State Warriors, 8PM ET – We are not falling into the zig-zag theory here and taking the Warriors off their loss. The facts are the Rockets were the best team in the NBA the entire season and are not just going away in this series. Houston had the best road point differential in the NBA this season at +7.5PPG and were 34-11 SU away from home this season which is as good as the Warriors 35-12 SU record at home. The Rockets were 30-8 SU against the other top 8 teams in the West this season with a positive differential of +8.3PPG. Golden State was very good against the top 8 teams in the West with a 22-15 SU record but clearly not as good as Houston. The points are just to attractive here with one of the two best teams in the NBA. Houston has been an underdog of more than +4.5 points just once this entire season. Yes, Golden State may win this game but It’s going to be close. |
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05-19-18 | Celtics v. Cavs -6 | Top | 86-116 | Win | 100 | 28 h 52 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: @Cleveland Cavaliers -6 over Boston Celtics, Sat 8:30PM ET - The Cavs were 13-5 Su at home off a loss this year and will bounce back in this game. They've heard how bad they are for the past few days and will make a statement in this game. Cleveland has won four straight home playoff games with the most recent being a 35-point blowout. The Cavs struggled with their shooting in the first two games which will change at home where they were the 4th best shooting team in the NBA at 48.2%. Boston has struggled on the road in the playoffs with three losses by 11 or more points, another L by 2 points and a win in OT. The Celtics were the 21st worst shooting team in the NBA this season when playing on the road at just 44%. Yes, the Cav had a horrible spread record at home this season but given the circumstance we will play on them here. Lay the points. |
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05-16-18 | Warriors v. Rockets +1 | Top | 105-127 | Win | 100 | 4 h 13 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Houston Rockets (+1) over Golden State Warriors, 9PM ET - It's clearly tough going against the Warriors, but the situation warrants a play on the Rockets in this game. Houston was 14-6 SU on the season when coming off a straight up loss which included a 5-2 mark at home in that situation. Golden State shot it really well in the opener as they hit over 52% from the field and nearly 40% from beyond the arc. Both of those percentages were better than Houston's 46% and 35%. The Warriors enjoyed a +7 differential from the free throw line and had 7 less turnovers than Houston. We are betting a return to the 'norm' tonight as the Rockets had the 2nd best home point differential at home this year of +9.4PPG, they were 1st in home offensive efficiency and 8th best in defensive efficiency numbers. Houston is 25-3 SU their last 28 at home while Golden State is just 11-11 SU their last 22 on the road, 3-2 SU in the playoffs. Over the course of the entire season the Rockets have the overall better efficiency numbers and have been the better overall team. So why not take them in Game 2, desperate at home off a loss. |
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05-13-18 | Cavs v. Celtics +2 | Top | 83-108 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics +2 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 3:30PM ET – The Celtics have one big advantage in this game and that’s in the coaching box with Brad Stevens over Ty Lue for the Cavs. I guarantee Stevens has something special here which he hasn’t shown during the regular season and he’ll find an advantage to exploit against Cleveland. The LeBron craze right now has the oddsmakers over-adjusting this number and the value clearly lies with Boston. Let’s consider these numbers. Philly the #3 seed was a -4.5 point favorite here in Boston in Game 1 of that series and the C’s won by 16. So Vegas is saying the Cavs are worse than Philly but still that much better than Boston that they should be favored here? Doesn’t add up. In the regular season meeting the Celtics were -4.5 points at home over Cleveland which is where this line should be. Boston was 34-14 SU at home this season with one of the better home point differentials in the league at +5.4PPG. The average point differential has grown to +9.1PPG in the post season. As for the Cavs they were just an average team on the road this entire season with a point differential of +.4PPG and a current record of 24-22 SU. We like that Boston can rotate multiple defenders at LeBron with Morris and Smart and if you can slow him down you win. Boston is 12-1 ATS their last 13 home games and 11-1 SU their last 12 in the Garden. Take Boston in Game G1. |
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05-09-18 | 76ers v. Celtics +1 | Top | 112-114 | Win | 101 | 3 h 2 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics (+1) over Philadelphia 76ers, 8PM ET. Contrary to what you might think about Philly climbing back into this series, it’s not going to happen. Again, we’ve beat this horse to death, but Celtics head coach Brad Stevens is just better than anyone else. Stevens will adjust Philly’s move with T.J. McConnell who scored 19 in Game 4 and nullify the Sixers advantage there. If you are a ‘value’ bettor, then you’re doubting this wager as the C’s were +4.5 points at home in Game 1 but the reality is the line tonight STILL isn’t where it should be as the Celtics should be a 4-point chalk. Boston has not lost at home in the post season and are on a current 11-1 ATS streak at home. On the year the C’s are 33-14 SU at home with an average point differential of +5.4PPG. Boston has won 5 straight games at home when coming off a loss in their previous game. Boston is the better team with the better coach and playing at home. Just win! |
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05-04-18 | Warriors v. Pelicans +5 | Top | 100-119 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
PLAY ON: Game 3 @New Orleans Pelicans +4.5 over Golden State Warriors, Friday 8PM ET - Yes, Steph Curry is back for the Warriors and clearly adds another dimension for the Golden State but we really like the Pelicans body of work down the stretch of the regular season and the first round of these playoffs. Let's not forget the Pelicans roasted a solid Blazers team in four games and had won five straight to end the regular season, all by double digits. New Orleans is 8-2 SU their last 10 games with an average differential of +7.1PPG. Anthony Davis is GREAT and is arguably the best player in the NBA right now to build a franchise around. The Pelicans have also gotten fantastic play out of Jrue Holiday, Rajon Rondo and even Nikola Mirotic. Holiday is averaging nearly 10 more points per game in the playoffs compared to the regular season (28PPG vs 19PPG) and shooting nearly 57%. Rondo has been equally as good averaging over 13 assists per game in the post season compared to 8 during the regular season and he's scoring more too. In Game 2 the Pels lost by just 5-points and they only attempted 9 free throws compared to Golden State going 22 of 27. Don't get us wrong, Golden State is still Golden State even with Steph Curry (who is not 100%) but they haven't been as good all season long as they were last season. GST has a road point differential of +4.4PPG this year (not enough to cover here) which is down from +7.49PPG last season. That's a full season of stats that just don't lie. Against other Western Conference playoff teams this season the Warriors had a winning record of 18-13 SU but the differential was just +1.6PPG. The Pelicans were 14-18 SU against the top 8 teams in the West but the point differential was just -1.9PPG. New Orleans at home this season had a positive home differential of +1.4PPG. What we're saying here is grab the points! |
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05-01-18 | Cavs v. Raptors -6.5 | Top | 113-112 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: TORONTO RAPTORS (-6.5) over Cleveland Cavaliers, 8PM ET - We were a perfect 3-0 with our Side wagers on the Cavs/Pacers series and are extremely dialed in on the Cavs right now and just how good they are. The answer is, they're certainly not the best team in the East and will have a very tough time advancing past this round. LeBron James has carried this team and logged a ton of minutes in the round one series against the Pacers. The Cavs got some very favorable calls in Game 7 against the Pacers and won't get those same calls in Game 1 of round 2. Statistically, the Raptors were the second best overall team in the NBA over the course of the regular season. They were 2nd in offensive efficiency and 5th in defensive efficiency, Houston was the only team better. Let's look inside the numbers for this game. The Cavaliers are 24-24 SU this season against all the other playoff teams in the NBA this season with a negative point differential of -3.1PPG. Cleveland was 7-16 SU on the road against other playoff teams and those 16 losses came by an average of 12PPG. Toronto on the other hand was 27-20 SU against other playoff teams this season with a positive differential of +4.2PPG. The Raptors were 18-6 SU at home versus other playoff teams this season and the wins came by an average of 13PPG. The biggest difference between these two teams is defensively as the Raptors were 5th in DEFF this season while the Cavs were 29th. Those numbers support the glaring difference between these two teams currently. Even though the Cavs have owned the Raptors with an 8-2 SU record the last ten meetings, the situation clearly warrants a bet on Toronto. The Raptors were 37-7 SU at home this season with a +10.4 point differential. Lay the points in Game 1. |
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04-28-18 | Pelicans +9 v. Warriors | Top | 101-123 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
PLAY ON: New Orleans Pelicans +9 over Golden State Warriors, 10:35PM ET - We are not sold on the Warriors yet after their first round series win over the short-handed, older Spurs. Golden State limped into the post season and didn't really play 'that well' against the Spurs. Conversely, the Pelicans totally dismantled the Blazers in a 4-game sweep and have now won 9 straight games, including wins over playoff teams like San Antonio and Golden State. Yes, everyone knows how great Anthony Davis is but the big difference for the Pelicans has been the play of Jrue Holiday, Rajon Rondo and even Nikola Mirotic. Holiday is averaging nearly 10 more points per game in the playoffs compared to the regular season (28PPG vs 19PPG) and shooting nearly 57%. He's also been fantastic defensively and could be used in a matchup with Klay Thompson. Rondo has been equally as good averaging over 13 assists per game in the post season compared to 8 during the regular season and he's scoring more too. Don't get us wrong, Golden State is still Golden State even without Steph Curry (who MAY play tonight) but they haven't been as good all season long as they were last season. GST has a home point differential of +7.6PPG this year (not enough to cover here) which is down from 15.9PPG last season. That's a full season of stats that just don't lie. Against other Western Conference playoff teams this season the Warriors had a winning record of 17-13 SU but the differential was just +1.6PPG. The Pelicans were 14-17 SU against the top 8 teams in the West but the point differential was just -1.9PPG. What we're saying here is grab the points |
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04-25-18 | Pacers +6 v. Cavs | Top | 95-98 | Win | 100 | 2 h 19 m | Show |
PLAY ON: Indiana Pacers +6 over Cleveland Cavaliers, 7Pm ET - Except for a blowout win in Game #1 by the Pacers this has been a tightly contested series that has gone down to the wire in three straight games. Has the Cavs defense been great in the post season or has Indiana's offense been bad? The Pacers are getting uncontested shots in this series, but just not making them. Indiana is 13th out of 16 playoff teams in effective field goal percentage shooting, and if those numbers trend back to normal, the Cavs are in big trouble. It's well documented Cleveland's defense was one of the worst during the regular season so it's not like they've fixed that end of the court in the playoffs. Cleveland had an average point differential at home of just +1.1PPG during the regular season which ranked 18th in the entire league. The only other playoff team that had a worst home differential was Milwaukee. Indiana had the 11th best road differential of -.2PPG and are clearly confident they can win on this court after their blowout win in Game 1. If Victor Oladipo can find his shooting touch in these last few games the Pacers win this series. Take the points. |
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04-24-18 | Bucks v. Celtics -2.5 | Top | 87-92 | Win | 100 | 25 h 30 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics -2.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 7PM ET – We used the Celtics in Game 1 of this series and laid 4-points so why wouldn't we lay a smaller number here. Don't write the Celtics off just because they lost two games in Milwaukee. The Bucks shot extremely well at home which was surprising considering they were up against the number two ranked defensive field goal percentage unit. In Game 3 of this series the Bucks shot over 52% from the field and barely held on to beat Boston by 2. The Bucks defense was horrendous down the stretch of regular this season and hasn't been much better in this series. Milwaukee was 19th on the year in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.101 points per possession and in the post season they rank 11th, out of 16, in that same statistical category. The Celtics have the best DEFF in the NBA and own a huge edge on that end of the court. Milwaukee was 19-22 SU away from home with a negative differential of -1.9PPG. The Bucks are just 19-27 SU against current playoff teams with a lost margin of -3.5PPG. Boston has an average winning margin at home this season of +4 and are 19-9 ATS this season when coming off a SU loss. Milwaukee won't continue to shoot as well as they have in the previous two games and the C's get a big home win here. |
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04-23-18 | Rockets -6 v. Wolves | Top | 119-100 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Houston Rockets -6 @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:00PM ET – Houston has been the best team in the NBA the entire season and we like them off a loss (12-6 SU) here. The one glaring stat we see from Game 3 is how well the Wolves shot the 3-ball. Minny was 15 of 27 from beyond the arc which was VERY uncharacteristic as they are a 35.9% (19th) shooting team on the season. In Games #1 and #1 they hit just 27.8% and 34.8%. Not to mention the Rockets were the 6th best team in the NBA this season at defending the 3 (allowed just 35.2%). It's highly unlikely they shoot it as well in this game as they did in Game 3. The Rockers were favored in Minny this year by 7-points and -3.5-points in the two regular season meetings here so don’t be intimidated by the spread. Houston won those two regular season clashes by 18 and 9 points. The Rockets had the best point differential in the NBA on the season at +8.4PPG overall and on the road at +7.5PPG. What’s most amazing about this team is there 34-10 SU record against other playoff teams with a differential of +7.3PPG. The Wolves average home differential of +5.7PPG on the season (8th best in NBA) is decent, but those numbers are inflated against the bad teams. When it comes to playing other playoff teams the Wolves are just 20-25 SU overall with a negative differential of -2.1PPG. The Wolves allow foes to hit over 47% of their field goal attempts on their home court which is the 3rd worst number in the NBA and bad news facing the Rockets. |
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04-18-18 | Jazz +5 v. Thunder | Top | 102-95 | Win | 100 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
PLAY ON: Utah Jazz (+5) over Oklahoma City Thunder, 8PM ET – Casual bettors are backing OKC after their Game 1 win but let’s not ignore the whole body of work leading up to this playoff series. Since the All-Star break there haven’t been many teams better in the NBA than Utah. They’ve gone 18-7 since the break, allowing just 96PPG while scoring 106PPG. The Jazz have the best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA and the 7th in FG percentage defense (45%) but they allowed OKC to shoot over 48% in Game 1. Utah also had the best fast break D in the league this year by allowing just 9.7PPG in transition. OKC more than doubled that number with 22 points on the break. The Thunder played very well in the opener and still only won by 8-points in Game 1. Let’s not forget the Jazz ended the regular season on a 15-2 SU run their last 17 road games. Utah was the 6th slowest paced team in the NBA this season so look for them to slow the tempo to a crawl which will make the points a premium. The bet here is UTAH AND THE POINTS! |
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04-17-18 | Pelicans v. Blazers -6 | Top | 111-102 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
PLAY ON: Portland Trailblazers (-6) over New Orleans Pelicans, 10:35PM ET - This clearly is a do-or-die situation for the Blazers at home down 0-1 in the series. Lose this game and you've wasted 82-regular season games. On the other hand, New Orleans is a little 'fat' off that upset win in Game 1. Portland had an off shooting night in G1 by hitting just 38% from the field and 31% from beyond the arc, which are both significantly lower than their season averages of 45% and 37% comparatively. The Blazers had less turnovers and more rebounds but just didn't make shots. These same two teams met in New Orleans in late March with the Blazers winning by 4-points as a 2-point road favorite. Prior to this home loss, the Blazers had gone 12-2 SU at home their last 14 and 7 of those wins came against other playoff teams. New Orleans has been a very good road team this year with some positive differentials but this just isn't a good situation for them. The Pelicans closed out the regular season with 5 straight wins that look good on paper (won at GST, LAC and beat the Spurs) but given the circumstances it's not as impressive as it looks. The Warriors had nothing to play for, the Clippers were eliminated and San Antonio was resting. Prior to that stretch the Pelicans were just 3-5 SU their last eight away from home against playoff teams. There is only one way to bet this game and it's on Portland. |
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04-14-18 | Heat +6.5 v. 76ers | Top | 103-130 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON Miami Heat +6.5 over Philadelphia 76ers, 8M ET - We like the veteran Heat and the points over the upstart Sixers in this matchup. Yes, we know Philly closed the season on a red hot run but the playoffs are a whole different beast. This series was 2-2 during the regular season with the 76ers winning at home by just 2 and 6 points respectively. The Sixers were 52-30 SU this season but only 20-23 SU against other playoff teams with a point differential of just .2PPG. That's hardly a big enough margin to get a cover in this game. Miami was 17-23 SU this year against other playoff teams, but 14-10 against the top 8 teams from the East. The Heat had a positive differential of +1.7PPG against the rest of the contenders from the Eastern Conference. Philadelphia closed the regular season on a 16 game winning streak which has forced this line to be inflated higher than it should be. Especially considering 13 of those sixteen wins came against non-playoff teams. Philly was just 11-10 ATS when laying more than 7-points this season and are now in the unfamiliar role as a large home chalk in a rare playoff appearance. Miami has a few key edges on the floor in the opener with center Whiteside in the middle and no Joel Embiid on the floor for Philly. Whiteside averaged 19PPG in his three meetings with the 76ers this season and D-Wade dialed back the clock in one of the meetings with 27. We like the veteran leadership the Heat have here and won't be surprised if they start this series up 1-0. |
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04-11-18 | Spurs +4.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 98-122 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 36 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: San Antonio Spurs (+4.5) over New Orleans Pelicans, 8PM ET - With so much on the line for playoff seeding we like the veteran Spurs to get a much needed win here. The Pelicans have made a late season run to qualify for the post season but let's take a closer look. New Orleans beat the Clippers after they were eliminated, a Warriors team that quit playing, Phoenix and Memphis. Prior to that they had lost four straight games against playoff teams (Thunder, Cavs, Blazers and Rockets). The Spurs have done a balancing act between rest and competing down the stretch which has produced a 4-2 SU record their last six. Three of those four wins came against Portland, Houston and OKC. New Orleans has a 23-17 SU record at home this year but their average point differential is under 1PPG. San Antonio has a losing road record this season at 14-26 SU but their average loss margin is just -1.1PPG which would clearly get us a cover here. The Pelicans have a 9-17 SU record this year against the top 8 teams in the West with a negative efficiency differential. The Spurs have the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the NBA when they play on the road and we love defensive underdogs. San Antonio would slip to the 8th seed with a loss and despite what Pop and the players say they would love to avoid the Warriors and Rockets in the first round. |
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04-10-18 | Warriors v. Jazz -7.5 | Top | 79-119 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON Utah Jazz -7.5 over Golden State Warriors, 9M ET - This is an interesting game that has seeding implications in the West. The Jazz can keep their hopes alive for the #3 seed in the West with a win tonight. Utah trails the Blazers by a game for that coveted spot and they meet tomorrow night in the season finale, but they must win tonight. Golden State has other motivations for tonight and that might be to NOT win this game. If the Warriors were to win this game they could end up bumping the Jazz down a few spots in the standing to the 7th seed . Then they'd have to face this DANGEROUS Utah team in the first round and nobody in the West wants this Jazz team right now with how they are playing. The Warriors have had numerous injuries and added rest heading into the post season is a priority. The Jazz are 29-5 SU their last 34 games and have done it with a defensive efficiency rating that is best in the NBA since the All-Star break. It's not like Utah will be intimidated here as they've beaten the Warriors in the last two meetings by 30 and 19 points respectively. The number set by Vegas is clearly higher than it should be as they try to entice Warrior backers. We won't fall for it. Lay the points! |
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04-09-18 | Thunder -3.5 v. Heat | Top | 115-93 | Win | 100 | 3 h 60 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Oklahoma City Thunder (-4) over Miami Heat, 7:35PM ET - At first look the 'value' in the number here seems very attractive with the home underdog but late in the season 'value' becomes less important in particular situations. This is one of those rare cases you can't be tempted by the home underdog given the circumstances. A desperate Thunder takes on a Heat team that has struggled to a 14-15 record since Feb. 1, playing below-.500 basketball for two-plus months. Miami's recent stretch has seen them go 3-2 SU but their three wins came against lottery bound Chicago and Atlanta twice. Oklahoma City is 14-9 SU their last 23 games and it's come against a brutal schedule. All 9 of the Thunder's losses have come against playoff teams. OKC has the 6th best road point differential in the NBA at +1PPG and are coming off a confidence building win over Houston. The Thunder need to win to get in and can still grab home court in the first round of the playoffs. Granted Miami is a playoff team but they really don't have anything to play for. In fact, the Heat might be better off with a loss here as it would move them to the 7th seed in the East which would mean a first round matchup with the injury depleted Celtics. In their most recent game the Heat gave extended minutes to everyone and seem more intent on staying healthy than winning right now. With Memphis on deck they'll get their morale-boosting win in their next game. Miami home differential of +2.5PPG is barely above league average. The Thunder have beaten the Heat four straight times all by 6 or more points. Take the team with incentive here! |
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04-07-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors -6 | Top | 126-120 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Golden State Warriors -6 over New Orleans Pelicans, 8:35PM ET - Let's start with the fact that the Warriors don't really have a lot to play for other than finishing higher than the Raptors in the East if Toronto would make the Finals. In reality I doubt the Warriors are thinking that but they will be focused here after a horrible showing in Indiana in their last game. Coach Kerr blasted them after the game so we should get great effort here. Golden State is 17-4 SU off a loss this season, 8-3 at home. New Orleans is in a tough scheduling spot as they are playing their 2nd night of a back to back and their 3rd game in four days. The Pelicans have struggled against good competition with a 18-23 SU record and negative efficiency differential. Golden State on the other hand is 25-14 SU against other playoff teams with a huge efficiency differential. Even with a 'down' season by the Warriors recent standards, they have a plus +8-point home differential that is 3rd best in the NBA. Golden State has beaten this team by 8, 15 and 10 points in the three meetings this season. GST has covered 4 of the last five in the series on this court. We will lay the points with the Warriors here. |
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04-04-18 | 76ers v. Pistons +3 | Top | 115-108 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 54 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON: Detroit Pistons +3 over Philadelphia 76ers, 7PM ET - The Detroit Pistons have zero wiggle-room right now as a loss eliminates them from the playoffs but they've vowed to make Milwaukee earn it. Detroit has played some of their best basketball down the stretch by winning 5 straight and 7 of their last eight (8-0 ATS). The Pistons are 6-1 SU since point guard Reggie Jackson (right ankle sprain) returned from injury and their record is 25-15 SU with him in the lineup. On the year the Pistons have a plus +3.7 point home differential and are 8-6 SU at home against Eastern Conference Playoff teams this season. Philadelphia is on a red hot 11 game winning streak but only two of those wins were against +.500 teams and both were at home with Joel Embiid in the lineup. The Sixers are just 9-16 SU against the top 8 teams in the East and 2-11 SU away in that situation. Philly is playing their 3rd game in four nights and the second of a back-to-back while the Pistons have been off since Sunday. The 76ers are just 5-7 SU, 4-8 ATS when playing without rest and they have a much bigger game on deck Friday against the Cavs who are ahead of them in the standings. Take Detroit! |
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04-01-18 | Bucks v. Nuggets -4 | Top | 125-128 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
ASA’s PLAY ON: Denver Nuggets -4 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET – These two teams are both playing for the post season but have various levels of urgency. The Bucks are in already and could move up to 7th or even 6th with some help from Miami and Washington. Denver though is fighting for their playoff lives as they are 2 games out of the post season which makes this game dramatically more important for them. The Nuggets have been fantastic at home this year with a 27-10 SU record and a point differential of +6.2PPG which is 8th best in the NBA. The Bucks on the other hand are 18-20 SU away from home with a negative point differential of -1.1PPG. Denver’s last three home wins have all come by 7 or more points and in this do-or-die situation we expect a win by that margin or more. The Bucks are coming off a pair of road wins and playing their 4th straight away from home in a 6-day span. The Nuggets have owned the Bucks here covering 14 of the last eight meetings in Denver. We also like the value here considering the Nuggets were recently favored by -8.5 points against the Pistons. Take the Nuggets and lay the points. |
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03-31-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Michigan -5 | Top | 57-69 | Win | 100 | 27 h 28 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Michigan -5 over Loyola Chicago, Saturday at 6:05 PM ET We are very confident that this is where Loyola’s Cinderella run comes to an end. They have been very solid, but also very fortunate to get to this spot. The Ramblers first 3 wins in the tourney came by a combined 4 points with 2 wins coming at the buzzer. They have shot ridiculously well to get to this point making 52.5% of their shots in the tourney. Even with that, 3 of their games came down to the final possession. Even in their most recent win over KSU, they shot 57% overall and 50% from three while the Wildcats couldn’t hit the broadside making only 34% of their shots and 24% from deep. KSU also was forced to play without their leading scorer and rebounder Dean Wade who played some in their previous game but was unable to go vs Loyola. With that 16-point win, the Ramblers still have just a +20 point differential in this tourney (Michigan is +46). Now they face a Michigan defense that has been absolutely fantastic. The Wolverines rank 4th nationally in defensive efficiency and they’ve held 11 of their last 12 opponents to less than 1.00 point per possession which is ridiculously good. By comparison, Loyola’s defense is also solid but they’ve allowed 3 of their 4 opponents in the NCAA tourney alone to reach at least 1.00 point per possession. If Loyola can’t make a high percentage of their shots as they’ve done the entire tourney, they are in trouble here. That’s because they simply don’t take many shots. They’ve attempted just 198 shots this tourney (only 49.5 shots per game) and they’ve attempted 30 fewer shots than their opponents. Thus you better shoot awfully well or get to the line A LOT to make up for that deficiency. We don’t see them doing either here as the Wolverines also foul as little as any team in the tourney. On the other end of the court, Michigan can shoot the ball every bit as well as Loyola. They have scorers and shooters at every position as well as many that come off the bench. The Wolverines don’t turn the ball over (4th nationally in lowest turnover percentage) while Loyola has coughed it up 15 & 16 times their last 2 games and ranks 218th nationally in that category. Michigan should also have the rebounding edge in this game. Those two factors, along with a few things we discussed earlier in this analysis, should keep Loyola at a hefty deficit in shots attempted. The Wolverines have now won 13 straight games all vs solid to top notch competition (NCAA tourney & Big Ten) and only 2 of those 13 have come by less than 6 points (current line here is -5 or -5.5). Those were games vs Houston and FSU – and the Wolverines led by 10 late in the FSU game when the Noles hit a couple of crazy 3’s to make it closer than it should have been (58-54 final). Only three 11-seeds have made the Final Four and all of them have seen their seasons come to an end at that point. LSU lost by 11 in 1986, George Mason lost by 15 in 2006, and VCU was upended by 8 in 2011. Loyola has had a great run but we see a similar fate here. Take MICHIGAN to win this by double digits. |
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03-30-18 | Pelicans +4 v. Cavs | Top | 102-107 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: New Orleans Pelicans (+4) @ Cleveland Cavaliers, 8PM ET - We won't hesitate to take the points and the Pelicans here as the Cavs continue to have the worst spread record in the NBA. On the season the Cavs are just 27-47-1 ATS, 10-25-1 ATS at home. I literally laugh out loud when I hear the talking heads proclaim the Cavs are playing great right and poised to make a run in the Playoffs. It couldn't be further from the truth and it Cleveland ends up with a first round series with Washington they not make it out of the opening series. The Cavs have won 7 of their last ten games but only 2 of those wins came against Playoff bound teams and both were at home. On the season the Cavs are just 17-20 SU versus current playoff teams, 4-11 SU against the top 8 teams from the West. The Cavaliers efficiency differentials in those 15 games is horrendous. Cleveland's defense is the problem as they rank 29th in the NBA in defensive efficiency ratings, only the Suns are worse. The Pelicans are in desperation mode here as they only lead the 9th place Clippers by 2 games in the Western Conf playoff race. New Orleans is 23-14 ATS on the road this season and have been rock solid against the best teams in the East with a 10-5 SU record versus the top 8 teams. The Pelicans road point differential at plus .4PPG is nearly as good as Cleveland's home differential of +.8. Easy call here to take NO plus the points. |
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03-28-18 | San Francisco v. North Texas -3 | Top | 55-69 | Win | 100 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* North Texas -3 over San Francisco, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET on ESPNU We were on UNT on Monday night as they came into that game @ USF playing their best basketball of the season. They lost that game by 10 and now it’s do or die time for the Mean Green. They now get to play host to USF and a loss would end their season. A North Texas win would send this to a deciding game 3 on Friday night. UNT had cruised through this tourney leading up to Monday night’s game destroying 3 straight opponents (South Dakota, Mercer, and Jacksonville State) scoring 90 or more points in each game. What was even more impressive is that they were underdogs in 2 of the games and favored by just 1 point in the other one. On Monday night they simply shot very poorly (39%) and made only 4 three pointers the entire game. San Francisco took a whopping 33 three point attempts on Monday and made 14 of them. That was the difference in the game. The Dons have relied heavily on the 3 pointer all season long with 37% of their points coming from beyond the arc (53rd most nationally). That makes it tough here in an arena they’ve never played in and facing a UNT defense that ranks 15th nationally at defending the arc allowing just 31.7% shooting. SF was able to capitalize on their outside shooting at home but we feel that will be their demise here vs a fired up Green defense. The Dons are not a great 3 point shooting team to begin with and on the road they are poor from deep hitting only 32% of their shots from behind the line. Speaking of road games, USF has yet to play away from home in this tourney so they’ve had a definite advantage. This will actually be their first true road game in over a month! San Fran finished just 4-7 in true road games this season and all of their road wins came against teams that were at least 4 games below .500 or worse. In fact, their 4 road wins came against teams that ended the season with a combined 41-86 record. We expect UNT to play very well at home in this must win spot and take care of business vs San Francisco. |
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03-27-18 | Nuggets v. Raptors -8.5 | Top | 110-114 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Toronto -8.5 over Denver, Tuesday at 7:30 PM ET The situation clearly favors Toronto here as: 1) They catch the Nuggets off a game last night and are rested themselves. 2) Denver's leading scorer Gary Harris is out. 3) Toronto is coming off a RARE home loss to the Clippers in their previous game. If we look inside the numbers we find that Denver is just 4-9 SU, 6-7 ATS when playing the second night of a back-to-back, which gets magnified without their best player. Toronto off a loss have been fantastic with a 15-4 SU overall record, 8-0 SU at home. When the Raptors are playing at home off a home loss they are 4-0 and those four wins came by an average of 20PPG. Toronto has the best home court point differential in the NBA at +10.3PPG with a 30-7 SU record. Denver has not been a great road team all season long with a 13-24 SU road record and a minus point differential of -3.7PPG. The Raptors are still playing for something as they want the second best overall record in the NBA in case they would meet Golden State in the Finals they would have home court advantage. This one won't be close, lay the points! |
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03-26-18 | North Texas +5 v. San Francisco | Top | 62-72 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* North Texas +5 over San Francisco, Monday at 10 PM ET on ESPNU UNT is being undervalued in this one. If you look strictly at the records, SF looks like they should be a decent favorite in this game as they are. UNT is 18-17 on the year while San Francisco comes in with a 21-15 mark. The Mean Green are much better than their record in our mind. They played in a tough Conference USA that included MTSU, Marshall, and Western Kentucky who all fared well in their post-season tourneys. Marshall won a game in the NCAA tourney beating Wichita as a double digit underdog and Western Kentucky is set to play in the NIT Final 4. They struggled a bit early in the season with a few key injuries and they were adjusting to a brand new system under new head coach Grant McCasland. They are clicking on all cylinders right now having scored at least 90 points in each of their 3 CBI games with wins coming by margins of 90-77 @ South Dakota, 96-67 vs Mercer, and 90-68 vs Jacksonville State. And the Mean Green were UNDERDOGS in the first two games listed above and favored by just 1 vs Jacksonville State. Even with that they continue to get little to no respect here. While UNT has been breezing through their games including a road win @ a very solid South Dakota team who is power ranked 70 spots higher than San Francisco, the Dons have been squeaking by at home. The Dons have played all 3 games in the CBI at home winning by margins of 4, 5, and 3 points (vs Colgate, Utah Valley, and Campbell). San Fran finished the year with 6 losses at home and in the WCC they were 9-9 but struggled against the upper half of the league. There were 4 teams besides USF that had a winning record overall this season. Those teams were San Diego, BYU, St Mary’s, and Gonzaga and the Dons had a 1-8 record vs those teams this year. Interestingly enough, one of those teams, San Diego, played host to UNT back in mid-December and the Mean Green won by 3. That was at a point in the season when North Texas wasn’t playing particularly well. On the other hand, USF lost both meetings with San Diego this year. North Texas is extremely confident coming into this one and we feel they have a great shot to win this game. Take the points. |
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03-25-18 | Duke -3 v. Kansas | Top | 81-85 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Duke -3 over Kansas, 6PM ET – We know its dangerous to lay points in the Elite 8 but it’s warranted here. Granted, the Blue Devils are off a close win against Syracuse but that was a game played in the 60’s by both teams with limited possessions. That made it much more difficult for the favorite to cover the spread. That shouldn’t be the case today as both Duke and Kansas prefer to play fast, ranking in the top 76 in terms of average possession length. Kansas is coming off a win over Clemson by 4-points, the same Tiger team Duke beat by 8 earlier this season. The Blue Devils key advantage in this match up is on the boards where they rank #1 in the nation in offensive rebounding and they’ll be going up against a Jayhawk D that is 295th in rebounding. The Dukies also have a slight advantage defensively with a top 10 defensive efficiency rating allowing just .939 points per possession. Going back to the regular season, in Duke’s last 8 wins, 7 have come by double digits. On the season the Blue Devils have an average point differential of +15PPG, Kansas is +10PPG. Duke has covered 9 of their last twelve and we like that trend to continue here. Lay it! |
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03-23-18 | Texas Tech +2 v. Purdue | Top | 78-65 | Win | 100 | 33 h 17 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech +2 over Purdue, Friday at 9:55 PM ET Wrong team favored here in our opinion. Our ratings had Purdue as a slight 1 to 2 point favorite in this match up and that was with giant Isaac Haas in the line up. Haas is now out with a broken elbow which greatly affects the Boilers on both ends of the court. It makes Purdue, an already heavily reliant 3 point team, even more so. With Haas out, the Boilers have almost no inside threat. Haarms is OK but he’s a freshman and very inconsistent and has only attempted 5 shots in the entire tourney so we can’t expect much from him. The problem then for Purdue is that Tech is a fantastic defensive team (4th in the nation in defensive efficiency) and they also defend the arc very well. In their 2nd round game vs a good shooting Florida team who also relies on the 3 point shot, the Red Raiders held the Gators to 6 of 22 from deep and they pressured UF on 20 of those 22 three point attempts. That means only 2 open threes in the game for Florida. The Boilers are already a shaky rebounding team and with Haas out of the line up that will be magnified. Thus we have Tech with advantages defensively and on the boards. On top of that, the Raiders (17th nationally in defensive turnover percentage) create far more turnovers than Purdue so another key advantage. Tech struggled toward the end of the regular season however much of that was due to their top player, Keenan Evans, being injured. He only missed one of those late losses but was hampered with his injury and limited in minutes in two others. He’s back full strength now and they’ve won 4 of 5 with their only loss coming in the Big 12 tourney by 3 vs a red hot West Virginia team. The return of Zach Smith for the Red Raiders is also key. The 6’8 senior was considered TT’s 2nd best player coming into the season but missed 14 games from January 9th thru February 26th. He’s now been back for 5 straight games, he’s healthy, and his minutes and productivity has been getting better each game. That makes this team much better than they even were during their Big 12 regular season run where they finished tied for 2nd behind Kansas in what many consider the best league in the land. We watch the Big 10 very closely and we saw Purdue start a declined in early February. They went just 3-3 in their final 6 regular season games two of their three wins were tight vs PSU and Illinois. They didn’t look great in the Big 10 tourney struggling to get by Rutgers in round one and getting ousted by Michigan in the semi finals. Last week they shot lights out vs Butler (54% overall and 45% from 3) and still went to the wire in a 3 point win. No way they shoot like that against this defense ranks 14th nationally in eFG% defense. Tech’s athletic perimeter defenders will give Purdue all kinds of problems here. On offense, Tech can score from both levels and with Haas out, that takes away Purdue’s rim protector so the Raiders will have success inside. We think Tech is the better team right now while Purdue is a bit over valued. Take the points here. |
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03-23-18 | Clippers v. Pacers -3 | Top | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Indiana Pacers (-3) over LA Clippers, 7PM ET - We like the home team Pacers here and don't expect this game to be close. Indiana is coming off a really poor shooting night on the road Wednesday in New Orleans, but look for that to change on their home court where they shoot 48% on the year. The Pacers have a +3.2 point differential at home on the year and have covered 5 straight home games as a favorite. Also, the Pacers have cashed in 10 of their last fourteen as a small favorite of less than -3.5 points. The LA Clippers are in a tough stretch here with just 1 win in their last five games which came in their most recent game in Milwaukee on Wednesday. Prior to that the Clippers had lost three straight road contests. Both teams have plenty to play for here as Indiana is fighting for home court in the first round of the playoffs, while the Clippers are fighting just to get in. But in the end, Indiana is 24-13 SU at home and has several matchup advantages over the Clippers that should lead to a double digit win here. |
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03-22-18 | 76ers -8 v. Magic | Top | 118-98 | Win | 100 | 3 h 46 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Philadelphia 76ers -8 over Orlando Magic, 7PM ET - Obviously we are laying a premium price here but it's still the only way to bet this game. Orlando is fighting for the #1 pick in the draft while the Sixers are fighting for the 4th spot in the East which would mean home court in the first round of the playoffs. The Magic are 21-50 and just two games "behind" Memphis and Phoenix for the worst overall record in the NBA. Orlando has lost 7 of their last eight games, including two straight at home by 9 to the short-handed Celtics, and by 7 to the Raptors. Philly has won 4 straight games with three of the four coming by 8 or more points. Orlando has the 8th worst overall point differential in the NBA at minus -4.7PPG. Conversely, the 76ers have the 9th best overall point differential in the NBA at plus +2.6PPG. In the two meetings earlier this season the 76ers won by 11 and 19. Effort will be the difference in this game and it will lead to a double digit win by the visitor. Take Philadelphia! |
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03-21-18 | Western Kentucky v. Oklahoma State -5.5 | Top | 92-84 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma State -5.5 over Western Kentucky, Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET This is an extremely tough spot for the Hilltoppers. They just pulled off an upset @ USC on Monday night coming from 6 down late to pick up the 79-75 win. It was a physically and emotionally taxing game that saw 13 lead changes. Western shot very well making 54% of their shots and 16 of 17 FT’s in the game. We don’t see that happening Wednesday as fatigue will definitely be a factor. Four of the five WKY starters played 32+ minutes in the upset. That game didn’t start until 11:30 PM ET on Monday night and didn’t end until 1:30 AM. The Hilltoppers had to travel from California to Oklahoma and must play just 43 hours after the conclusion of their win @ USC. Oklahoma State, on the other hand, has played both of their NIT games at home and played much earlier on Monday Night. They didn’t play very well on Monday vs Stanford shooting just 35% from the field and making only 12 of their 23 FT attempts (they average 76% from the line as a team this year) and still won by 6 over a solid Stanford team. The Cowboys have 3 seniors on the starting line up who felt they were playing their final home game. That’s because if USC would have beaten WKY, the Cowboys would be traveling to California for this game. Now they get an extra boost emotionally with another home game they were not expecting. They should have a big home court advantage as well in this game. Normally the NIT draws smaller crowds but the OSU fans came out in droves on Monday with 10,000 in the seats which was the largest home crowd of the season for the Cowboys. Another large gathering is expected on Wednesday. OSU has 15 home wins on the season including topping NCAA tourney teams Kansas, Texas Tech, Texas, and Oklahoma here at Gallagher Iba Arena. We really like this Western Kentucky team, however this is a very bad situation for them playing the talented OSU team. Lay the small number. |
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03-20-18 | Penn State +2.5 v. Marquette | Top | 85-80 | Win | 101 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Penn State +2.5 over Marquette, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET PSU has huge advantages defensively and on the boards which are two keys we always emphasize when handicapping basketball. We’re not talking about a subtle difference. PSU ranks 15th nationally in defensive efficiency. They just held a potent Notre Dame offense to just 63 points on 38% shooting in a 10 points win in South Bend. The Irish, who rely heavily on the 3 just as Marquette does, was held to only 4 three point makes in the game. After the game, Irish head coach Mike Brey mentioned that PSU’s length and athleticism at guard gave his shooters major problems. That will be the same situation here. The Golden Eagles rely as heavily on the 3 point shot as almost any team in the nation. Their guards are small with Rowsey and Howard both standing under 6’0. The Nittany Lions 3 guard line up features Tony Carr who is 6’5, Josh Reaves who is 6’4, and Shep Garner who is 6’2. All 3 are very good defenders and will give the Marquette guards fits in this game. If the Eagles can’t score from deep they are in big trouble and they have very little inside game (332nd nationally in percentage of points inside the arc). Rebounding will also be a key as we mentioned and PSU should dominate there. They are very good on both the offensive and defensive boards and Marquette is weak rebounding team. That should give the Nits plenty of extra opportunities and they should thrive inside vs a Marquette defense that ranks 301st nationally and defending the 2 point shot. The Eagles rank just 176th nationally in defensive efficiency and they’ve held only 8 opponents to under 1.00 point per possession this season. Both teams have won 2 games to get here but PSU’s route has been much tougher beating Temple and home then winning at Notre Dame (the last team left out of the Big Dance) by 10. Marquette has had 2 home games vs Harvard and Oregon (Pac 10 was obviously very weak this year). One of the Eagles key scorers, Sam Hauser, injured his hip in their win over Harvard and was questionable vs Oregon. While he did play, he was just 1 of 6 from the field and had only 5 points. If he struggles with the injury again here, Marquette is in trouble. PSU was the highest rated team in the Ken Pom ratings not to make the NCAA tourney (27th when the brackets were released). We agree this team is very solid. They also get an extra day having beat Notre Dame on Saturday while Marquette played on Sunday. PSU is the much more complete team and we anticipate they’ll pick up a road win here. |
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03-19-18 | Hornets v. 76ers -8.5 | Top | 94-108 | Win | 100 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Philadelphia 76ers -8.5 over Charlotte Hornets, 7PM ET - Several teams can't afford to relax these days and one of them is the 76ers. Philadelphia is in a tightly contested five-way battle for the third seed in the Eastern Conference playoff race, where just 3 1/2 games separate the current third-place Cleveland Cavaliers from the eighth-place Miami Heat. Of course the big reward is home court advantage if they can finish 4th or higher. This is clearly a bad match-up for the Hornets as they've lost to the Sixers twice this season by double-digits in both games. Charlotte is clearly a team that has cashed it in this season evidenced by their box scores where they are giving extended minutes to bench players. The Hornets have just two wins in their last nine games (3 covers) and those came against the Hawks and Suns who are two of the worst teams in the NBA. Philly is coming off a close win over Brooklyn which serve as a wake-up call for tonight. The 76ers have an average home point differential of +6.3PPG this season. Charlotte allows teams to hit 48% of their field goal attempts on the road this year while Philly shoots 47% at home. Philadelphia is 8-1 ATS their last nine at home versus teams with losing records and while we know we are laying a premium number here, we still feel it won't matter. Take the 76ers! |
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03-18-18 | Marshall v. West Virginia -12.5 | Top | 71-94 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* West Virginia -12.5 over Marshall, Sunday at 9:40 PM ET We used Marshall +12 over Wichita on Friday and picked up an easy win with the Herd winning outright. We felt that the Herd would be able to score vs a Wichita defense that was subpar. We also felt the Shockers were over rated all season long and took advantage of that. This is a totally different scenario. Marshall used a ton of energy in that game just 48 hours ago and played their starters massive minutes. Leading scorer Elmore played the full 40 minutes and 3 other starters played 35+ minutes. They were completely gassed at the end of that game. Now they must play a physical, pressing WVU defense on short rest. A defense that is impossible to prepare for in a short amount of time. We expect Marshall’s “shooting legs” to struggle here having to face constant pressure the entire game with almost no bench to rely on. The Herd are a weak rebounding team (worst in the Dance) and we felt they’d struggle vs Wichita in that aspect and they did. The Shockers were +14 on the boards and pulled down a whopping 41% of their misses. That didn’t hurt Marshall as much as it could have because they were able to hit 47% of their shots. Now with tired legs, as we mentioned, they face a WVU team that is a great rebounding team (4th nationally in offensive rebounding) and the huge rebounding edge will be magnified in this one. We also look for Marshall’s turnover numbers to be high here as they wear down in the 2nd half in this one. The Mountaineers won big over Murray State in their opener and were able to spread out their minutes because of that with only 1 starter logging 30 or more minutes. This line is high but not out of whack as WVU is better than Wichita and laying pretty much the same number. These long time in-state rivals renew their match up which stopped after the 2016 season and WVU logs an easy win here. |
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03-18-18 | Maryland-Baltimore County v. Kansas State -10 | Top | 43-50 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Kansas State -10 over UMBC, Sunday at 7:45 PM ET The dream ends for UMBC here. This team played WAY above their heads the other night in a win over Virginia. The Retrievers weren’t even the best team in their conference and in fact they were rated the 3rd best team in America East this year. They came from 9 behind late in the America East championship game to beat Vermont at the buzzer. That was a Vermont team that beat UMBC by 15 & 18 points during the regular season. This team caught lightning in a bottle yesterday hitting a ridiculous 54% of their shots vs UVA. The crazy part is, UMBC isn’t even a good shooting team. They rank barely in the top 200 in offensive efficiency and finished 5th in America East in FG%. They very rarely get to the FT line and have all kinds of trouble scoring inside. This team is now in situation they are obviously not used to. They weren’t even expected to be here and now the Retrievers have been thrust into the limelight for the last 48 hours. KSU is another one of those tough teams we really like. The Cats will dominate this team inside and on the glass. They are a very good defensive team that held one of the better offenses in the nation (Creighton) to just 59 points on 34% shooting on Friday in a 10 point win. We have no doubt that UMBC comes back to earth offensively and struggles to score. On the flip side we look for KSU to play very well offensively vs a UMBC defense that ranks 227th in eFG% defense. Let’s not overreact to one game where a team that simply isn’t very good played the absolute best they could possibly play on both ends of the court. They played a grand total of ONE tourney team this year (before UVA) and lost by 25 vs Arizona. KSU dominates this game and moves on to the Sweet 16. |
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03-18-18 | Clemson +1.5 v. Auburn | Top | 84-53 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Clemson +1.5 over Auburn, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET Clemson was impressive yesterday handling a very good NM State team from start to finish and led by 18 at one point in the 2nd half. Many felt the Aggies had a great shot at the upset as the line dropped all the way to Clemson -3.5. This is a veteran team with all upperclassmen in the starting line up. They are tough minded and great defensively (9th nationally in defensive efficiency). We trust them to play well here. Not so much with Auburn. They are a young team that relies very heavily on the 3 point shot. They score very little inside the arc (341st nationally in percentage of points from 2 point range) and won’t here as Clemson is bigger and stronger inside. On Friday vs College of Charleston, the Tigers created 21 turnovers AND took 18 more FT attempts yet still trailed with under 3:00 minutes to go! They won by 4 (we were on C of C) but were not impressive. They played a very weak non-conference slate and while they began the SEC in red hot manner, the Tigers were just 4-5 down the stretch. We expect Clemson to dominate on the interior and slow this game down which is not what Auburn wants. We like the tougher team as a dog here. Take Clemson. |
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03-17-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Tennessee -5.5 | Top | 63-62 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Tennessee -5.5 over Loyola Chicago, Saturday at 6:10 PM ET Kudos to Loyola for their win in the opening round over Miami but it wasn't as big an upset as casual fans might think considering the Canes were favored by just 2 points. But now the Ramblers face a Tennessee team that is deep, talented, well coached and could make a run at the Final Four. The SEC is certainly proving a point in the Tourney thus far with a perfect 5-0 record as of this writing. The Vols have played the 6th toughest schedule in the nation and their 8 losses have all come against teams in the Big Dance. Despite playing that brutal schedule the Volunteers still rank 38th in offensive efficiency ratings and 5th in defensive efficiency. In the recent SEC tourney the Vols were favored by 3-points over Arkansas and 2-points over Kentucky so you can see for yourself the value in this line today. Loyola has put together a great season but the Missouri Valley isn't the SEC and they've faced the 132nd schedule. Other than Miami, the Ramblers haven't beaten a team ranked higher than 120th since early December. Tennessee has a huge advantage when it comes to offensive rebounding ranking 37th while Loyola ranks 331st. The efficiency differentials clearly favor the better team from the better conference. Lay the points with Tennessee. |
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03-17-18 | Buffalo v. Kentucky -5.5 | Top | 75-95 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Kentucky -5.5 over Buffalo, Saturday at 5:15 PM ET Buffalo shot lights out Thursday (56% overall & 50% from deep) vs an average Arizona defense. The Bulls made a whopping 15 three pointers vs an Arizona defense that is just 221st nationally at defending the arc. That worked in Buffalo’s favor on Thursday as they rely heavily on the 3 point shot. Now they face a Kentucky defense that allows opponent so shoot only 30% from deep which is 4th best nationally. On Thursday the Cats held Davidson (12th best 3-point shooting team) to just 33% from beyond the arc. If Buffalo can’t score from deep they are in trouble as less than 50% of their points come from inside the arc and they don’t go to the FT line very often. They’ll have trouble getting good looks period in this game as Kentucky is very long at all positions and come in with the 22nd most efficient defense overall. The Cats beat Davidson by 5 yesterday despite not making a 3 point shot the entire game. They were outscored 33-0 from beyond the arc and STILL won by 5. That tells you how much UK really dominated inside outrebounding Davidson 58 to 31! While they won’t have that type of dominance on the boards here, they should still control the glass, especially offensively where they rebound a whopping 35% of their misses (9th nationally). The Cats are a decent 3 point shooting team (35%) so Thursday was a bit of an aberration and we’d expect them to be more diverse here and score both inside and out. UK also gets to the line A LOT (6th best FGA/FTA ratio in the country) and the Bulls will help them with that as they foul quite a bit (296th in defensive FGA/FTA ratio). Buffalo will be a trendy underdog here as people watched them whip an over rated Arizona team, but let’s not forget how well this Kentucky team is playing. They rolled through the SEC tourney and have won 8 of their last 9 games with all but one of those wins coming by double digits. That was in the SEC Championship where the beat a very good Tennessee team by 5, but the Cats had a 17 point lead in that game so it could have been worse. Lay it here with Kentucky. |
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03-16-18 | Providence v. Texas A&M -2 | Top | 69-73 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Texas A&M -2 over Providence, Friday at 12:15 PM ET Providence is a popular underdog here getting nearly 70% of the bets in this game. That’s normally not a good thing. People like to bet favorites and when a dog is getting a high percentage of bets, the numbers don’t speak well for that team. In fact, since 2005, underdogs on the first weekend of the NCAA tourney receiving more than 50% of the bets have cashed in only 40% of the time. The Friars are one of the highest bet dogs on Friday but we like the other side. A&M has better numbers throughout the season and we don’t think it’s a great match up for Providence. Both have played a very tough schedule to the numbers are accurate. Neither team is overly efficient offensively with A&M holding a slight edge. Defensively, the Aggies are far superior ranking 12th nationally in both defensive efficiency and eFG% defense. They are the much better rebounding team as well. The Friars defend the 3 well but are not very good at defending close to the basket. That plays right into A&M’s game as they don’t shoot a ton of 3’s but they are big inside and like to score in the paint. Providence scores at a high rate from the FT line, however A&M doesn’t foul much. The Aggies also defense both levels (inside and outside the arc) very well and they defend the rim with a high number of blocked shots. The lone downside here is Texas A&M is not a great FT shooting team but we don’t expect that to hurt them here as we don’t look for either team to shoot a ton of FT’s in this game. The Friars made a physical and emotional run to the Big East Finals playing 3 OT games in their tourney. A&M has been off since last Thursday after losing by 1 point at the buzzer to Bama. We like the Aggies at this low number. |
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03-15-18 | Oklahoma +2 v. Rhode Island | Top | 78-83 | Loss | -104 | 44 h 20 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma +2 over Rhode Island, Thursday at 12:15 PM ET Many of the national pundits are up in arms about Oklahoma making the tourney as they struggled down the stretch in what turned out to be the toughest conference in America this year, the Big 12. However, what about Rhode Island coming in as a 7 seed? This is a team that struggled down the stretch, played in a much weaker conference, AND was rated 49th nationally by Ken Pom (which is 12 seed range) which is lower than Oklahoma yet they received an at large and a 7 seed? And now the Rams are favored? You can bet with all of the talk about why they should not have received a bid, the Sooners will be very motivated to prove people wrong here. Let’s not forget this team was a top 5 team earlier in the season and beat the likes of Kansas, Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas State, Baylor, and Wichita State this season. Should they have been rated as a top 5 team? Obviously not but they aren’t as bad as the pundits are making them out to be. Yes they struggled on the road in Big 12 play but who wouldn’t vs that schedule? Big 12 home teams were 62-30 on the year and only ONE team in the conference was .500 or above away from home in league play (Kansas). Let’s also not forget this OU team was favored @ Kansas State, @ Oklahoma State, @ Alabama and small road dogs @ WVU, @ TCU, @ Texas, and @ Baylor. And now they are a dog on a neutral court to Rhode Island? The Rams aren’t playing well right now. They lost 3 of their last 5 regular season games, struggled to get by VCU and St Joes in the A10 tourney before getting bounced by Davidson. This is a tough scheduling spot as well for URI playing on Sunday and now an early start on Thursday. We agree that OU looked a bit tired late in the season but they now have had more than a full week off to re-energize. They also have the best player on the court in Trae Young which is always a bonus, especially as an underdog. The Sooners will be motivated, have played the much tougher schedule, and are in a better situational spot. Take the points with Oklahoma here. |
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03-13-18 | Boston College +5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 62-79 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 21 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Boston College +5 over Western Kentucky, Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET We think this is a very tough spot for Western Kentucky. They were seconds away from the NCAA tournament just 72 hours ago in Texas and now they have to refocus and play a game that they may not be all the excited to be in. Their CUSA Championship game Saturday night was a big disappointment as they were favored by -5.5 vs Marshall but lost by 1 point. WKY trailed by 12 with 3:30 remaining and rallied late and had a chance to win. It was a Marshall team they had beaten twice during the regular season so you know the Hilltopper players were confident they were going to the Big Dance. BC, on the other hand, will be excited to be here. They haven’t been in any post-season tourney since 2011 and after finishing 7-11 in the ACC they knew they weren’t going dancing unless they won the ACC tournament which was not realistic. The Eagles played very well in the ACC tourney beating Georgia Tech by 10, then topping NCAA bound NC State before losing on Thursday to Clemson by 8. BC has now had 5 full days off to rest and get ready for this one which gives them the advantage. Not to mention, they have the best player on the floor in Jerome Robinson (ACC first team) and possibly the 2nd best player on the floor in point guard Ky Bowman. The Eagles have obviously played the much tougher schedule and they have beaten the likes of Duke, NC State, Florida State, Syracuse, and Miami FL. Meanwhile WKY played only 4 teams all season long that made it into the tourney and lost both games to Middle Tennessee State, the only team in CUSA that could come close to making a case for an at large bid. Too many points here as BC should have a great shot to win this game outright. |
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03-11-18 | Texas-Arlington +2 v. Georgia State | Top | 61-74 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 48 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* UT Arlington +2 over Georgia State, Sunday at 2:00 PM ET As most of you know we’ve followed this UTA team very close all year and been very successful on or against them, including our College Game of the Year winner just a few weeks ago against this very Georgia State team. The Mavs are the most veteran team in the Sun Belt and one of the most veteran teams in the entire nation with 5 seniors in the starting line up. After winning the league last year with a 14-4 record but losing in the conference tourney, they had one goal coming into this season. Make it to the Big Dance. They didn’t win the regular season title and seemed disinterested at times despite their talent. That’s not the case now as they are on the door step to attaining their one goal this year and have been playing very well. Yesterday they beat UL Lafayette who won the Sun Belt by a full 4 games with a 16-2 record. UTA lost both regular season meetings to ULL by double digits and then beat them yesterday which tells you how good this team can be when focused. They split their two meetings this year with Georgia State winning by 8 at home and losing by 6 on the road. A few quick take aways from those two meetings. Ga State relies heavily on the 3 and took 60 attempts from beyond the arc in the two meetings. That doesn’t bode well today as UTA defends the 3 pretty well (109th nationally) and with this being their 3rd game in 3 days, Georgia State’s “shooting legs” may not be up to par. Also the Panthers are one of the thinnest teams in the nation ranking 342nd in bench minutes so 3 games in 3 days will be more taxing on this team than many others. Another key takeaway was that UTA absolutely dominated the boards at +26 in their two meetings. That won’t change here. The Mavs also get to the FT line more often on the season and they were +12 in FT attempts vs Ga State. If those 3 things hold true again today, which we believe they will, we have no doubt Arlington will win this game and move on to the Big Dance. |
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03-10-18 | Toledo v. Buffalo -6.5 | Top | 66-76 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Buffalo -6.5 over Toledo, Saturday at 7:00 PM ET Buffalo has been the best team in the MAC from beginning to end this season and we expect them to roll to an easy win and head to the Big Dance. Both are playing their 3rd game in 3 days, however Buffalo has been able to spread their minutes out with two easy wins. On the flip side, Toledo comes into this one having won by 2 on Thursday and by 1 yesterday and their starters logged big minutes in both. Speaking of starters, Toledo’s top player, Treshaun Fletcher (18 PPG), injured his knee 20 seconds into last night’s game and was unable to return. He also tweaked that same knee the night before vs Miami OH so it’s an obvious problem. He’s listed as questionable today and if he doesn’t play the Rockets are in huge trouble. Even if he does play there’s no way he can be 100% if he couldn’t even come back in a do or die tight game last night. Both of these offenses are very good ranking 1 and 2 in the MAC in offensive efficiency. However, the Bulls have a big edge on defense ranking 2nd in the MAC in defensive efficiency to 8th for Toledo. Buffalo is also better on the board and they turn the ball over less. These two met once this year and Toledo shot 54% overall and 50% from 3 point range and STILL lost by 10. Toledo’s Fletcher scored 27 points in that game and was 10 of 14 from the field and they still lost by 10. If he can’t go today it’s over. Even if he can, we still like Buffalo to win this one easily. |
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03-09-18 | Oregon v. USC -2.5 | Top | 54-74 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* USC -2.5 over Oregon, Friday at 11:30 PM ET USC is playing very well as of late and they are in the much better spot here. The Trojans handled Oregon State relatively easily yesterday (13 point win) and were able to get their bearings in their first game in a new venue (T Mobile Arena in Vegas). They come into this game having won 5 of their last 6 with their only loss coming to arch rival UCLA. They have also proven they can get it done away from home going 10-6 this year in road/neutral site games (12-4 ATS in those games). They have beaten the Ducks twice already this year and they catch Oregon in a terrible situation. The Ducks will be playing their 3rd game in 3 nights and they weren’t able to “relax” in either of their first two games as they come from 11 down in the 2nd half to beat Washington State in OT on Wednesday and then again came from 11 down in the 2nd half to nip Utah 68-66 last night. Their top 4 players have played 76, 75, 68, and 69 minutes in those two games Those were two physically and emotionally taxing games in which Oregon was playing from behind for the vast majority of each. That could leave very little in the tank for the Ducks tonight. USC has the better offense (3rd most efficient in Pac 12 to Oregon’s 4th), the much better defense (2nd most efficient to 9th for Oregon), the outrebounded the Ducks in their two meetings (+8), and had fewer turnovers. Those advantages will only be magnified tonight by Oregon’s tired legs so we’ll lay this small number. |
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03-09-18 | Appalachian State v. Texas-Arlington -5.5 | Top | 68-84 | Win | 100 | 17 h 45 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* UT Arlington -5.5 over Appalachian State, Friday at 3:00 PM ET We’ve used UTA a number of times this year with very solid success. They are a very talented team, possibly the most talented in the Sun Belt, that simply underachieved during the regular season. They won the Sun Belt title last year going 14-4 in league play and returned nearly all of the key contributors. They were the favorites to win the conference again this year yet disappointed with a 10-8 record. When motivated this team can be very good and they will be just that here. With 5 senior starters they are set to make a run toward the NCAA tourney after falling short of their goal last year losing to Texas State in the semifinals. The Mavs have hit their stride winning 6 of their last 8 games including a 12 point win over this App State team on February 1st. That was a game in which UTA lost one of their best players (Kaelon Wilson) to injury just 4 minutes into the game. He has since come back and played very well leading the Mavericks to 3 straight wins to close out the season. App State was 9-9 in Sun Belt play but did their damage against the bottom half of the league. Against the top 5 teams in the league (ULL, Georgia State, UTA, Georgia Southern, and Troy) the Mountaineers were just 2-5 with both wins coming at home. UTA, on the other hand, has beaten every team in the conference not name ULL at least once. We’re getting line value here with the underrated Mavs as they were favored by 10 at home vs App State and favored by 4.5 on the road. Arlington takes care of business here and gets the easy win. |
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03-08-18 | Akron v. Eastern Michigan -6 | Top | 58-67 | Win | 100 | 4 h 58 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Eastern Michigan -6 over Akron, Thursday at 9 PM ET This is a great spot to play on EMU and fade the Zips of Akron. Eastern is rested, playing well while Akron is off a rare road upset win. The Zips have one really good player in Daniel Utomi who's averaging 16.8 points per game. Utomi poured in 26 points in their opening round upset win over WMU but will have a much tougher time here against an outstanding EMU defense. EMU has way more depth with three players scoring in double figures led by 3rd team All-MAC Elijah Minnie at 16.8 points per game on 45.7 percent shooting from the floor. 1st team All-MAC selection James Thompson IV follows with 15.3 points per game. Paul Jackson rounds out the double-digit scoring, averaging 14.9. In other words, Eastern can get it done from several different guys while Akron relies on one. The Eagles are 5th in the MAC in offensive efficiency ratings while Akron is 10th. On the defensive end of the floor the Eagles have a MASSIVE advantage over the Zips with the #1 ranked DEFF unit in the MAC allowing just .994 points per possession. On the flip side, Akron is 2nd to last in the MAC allowing 1.115PPP. Defensively, EMU limits opponents to 67.2 points a night on 40.7 percent shooting from the field and 35.1 percent from downtown. Akron is the 277th ranked total D in the nation, 301st in EFG% D allowing 54.2%. Eastern comes into this game having won 6 straight games and 9 of eleven. In their last five games the Eagles have some impressive numbers including: +10PPG scoring differential, shooting nearly 52% and allowing just 41.5%. Akron has just 2 road wins all season long with a negative scoring differential of -10.5PPG while shooting under 44% as a team and allowing nearly 50%. Akron knocked off EMU last year in the tourney so expect payback here. Eagles by 10+. |
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03-08-18 | Nets v. Hornets -6.5 | Top | 125-111 | Loss | -113 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Charlotte Hornets (-6.5) over Brooklyn Nets, Thurs 7PM ET - The scheduling clearly favors the home team here as Brooklyn is playing their 5th straight road game, three of which were just on the West Coast with the most recent coming against the Warriors. Now just 2 days later they are back on the East Coast to face the Hornets. Charlotte meanwhile is off 4 straight losses after winning five straight. The Hornets recent losing streak though comes against a few of the best teams in the East (76ers twice, Celtics and Raptors) which the Nets are not. Charlotte sits 6 games out of the 8th and final spot in the East and have to make a run starting tonight to have a shot at the post season. Brooklyn on the other hand is in the ‘tankathon’ with the rest of the bottom-feeders in the East as they jockey for the best Lottery position. Charlotte has beaten three similar teams to the Nets at home (prior to the loss to the Sixers) by 15, 16 and 15 over this same Nets team. The Hornets are 5-2 SU their last seven at home and the two losses came to Philly and Toronto. Brooklyn has the 8th worst average road point differential of minus 6PPG. Charlotte is 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS at home this season when coming off a home loss. Those four wins came by an average of 11PPG. Lay the points with the home team here! |
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03-08-18 | UNLV v. Nevada -4.5 | Top | 74-79 | Win | 100 | 2 h 5 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Nevada -4.5 over UNLV, Thursday at 3:00 PM ET We think Nevada is in a great spot in their MWC opener today. We get by far the best team in the league coming off a loss @ San Diego State to end the season. It was just their 6th loss of the season and they have fared quite well coming off a setback. They did lost back to back games in early December vs Big 12 powers TCU and Texas Tech (one in OT and the other by 4 points) but beyond that, after their losses the Wolfpack bounced back for wins by margins of 25, 15, 15, and 10 points. Before losing to a red hot San Diego State team to close out the regular season, this Nevada team played UNLV right here at the Thomas & Mack Center. That was just one week ago. The final score of that one was Nevada 101-75 and the Wolfpack led by as many as 33 points in the 2nd half of that game. While one might say that UNLV will be more than ready here after that beat down just 8 days ago, we don’t think they are playing well enough or have the horses to keep this one tight. Plus their home court advantage has been anything but an advantage this year as the Rebels lost 5 home games in conference play alone. The Rebels held on for dear life yesterday beating 9th place Air Force in overtime. All 5 starters played 31+ minutes in that game just 24 hours ago and they basically played a 6 man rotation with only one other player getting to double digit minutes. Vegas hit over 49% of their shots in that game and were +13 points at the FT line yet still had to hold on in overtime vs a lower tier MWC team. Coming into that game, UNLV had lost 5 straight to close out the regular season with 4 of those coming by double digits. They looked like a tired team to us and yesterday’s situation won’t help. Nevada is rested and has all the motivation in the world to win this tourney. They are a great shooting team ranking 8th nationally in offensive efficiency and 12th in 3 point percentage. They face a UNLV defense that has been below average this year ranking 9th in the MWC in defensive efficiency and 9th in 3 point defense. Air Force hit 13 of 27 from deep yesterday and the Falcons came in ranking 295th nationally in 3 point shooting so that does not bode well for this Rebel defense this afternoon. Nevada averaged 90 PPG in their 2 meetings with UNLV this year and we expect them to roll up a big win here. |
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03-07-18 | Cavs +3 v. Nuggets | Top | 113-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Cleveland Cavaliers (+3) over Denver Nuggets, 10:35PM ET - If you haven’t figured LeBron out yet then we’ll give you the abbreviated version. When motivated he can be absolutely incredible. One of the best athletes to ever play in the NBA along with Shag and Wilt. The downside is that he lacks the mental fortitude to ever be considered the GOAT and lacks the killer instinct the true greats had. But for our wager today we expect to have an engaged LeBron which is a good thing. The Cavs just lost at home to the Nuggets where LBJ scored 25 points, grabbed 10 boards and dished out 15 assists. Denver shot a ridiculous 19 of 35 from deep or 54% from beyond the arc which was drastically better than their 36.6% on the season. Since the monster trade the Cavs have been better defensively so expect a concentrated effort on that end of the floor this evening. Cleveland is 15-15 SU on the road this year and one of only 9 teams in the NBA with a positive road point differential. Denver just 4-8 ATS this season when playing without rest, 1-4 SU/ATS when playing without rest at home dating back to 2015. Cavs on 80% or 8-2 spread run as a road dog this season. Take Cleveland here. |
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03-07-18 | UTEP +3 v. Texas-San Antonio | Top | 58-71 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* UTEP +3 over UTSA, Wednesday at 7:30 PM ET The Conference USA tourney this year is played at a new venue called the Ford Center at the Star in Frisco, TX. It’s a Jerry Jones/Dallas Cowboys project and houses a full football field. It is not a basketball venue and CUSA will attempt a new concept with 2 games being played at once. Similar to an AAU event where multiple games are going in the same venue. We’ve been told the sight lines and back drop are not ideal for shooting which, in our opinion, will not favor UTSA here. That’s because the Roadrunners get more points from beyond the arc than any other team in CUSA (41%). Relying heavily on outside shooting will most likely be a problem in this event. On top of that, UTSA lost their best player and one of their top shooters, Jhivvan Jackson, to a season ending knee injury on February 24th. They have played just 2 games without Jackson, one an 18 point loss @ UNT and another a win over Rice, the second worst team in CUSA who had a 7-24 record and didn’t even qualify for the conference post-season tourney. We think UTSA will struggle at this venue, especially without Jackson running the point. UTEP was expecting to be one of the better teams in the conference this season. It didn’t go as planned with head coach Tim Floyd resigning during the season which obviously caused some major distractions. However, the Miners rallied under interim coach Phil Johnson winning 4 of their last 6 games including a season finale win @ North Texas. We feel this team is better than their record and they have obviously not quit on the season. They should have confidence here as they took UTSA to the wire in both games losing each by just 4 points. Their game @ UTSA came down to the final possession. That was when UTSA was at full strength. This one sets up for UTEP to pull the upset. |
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03-06-18 | South Dakota -1 v. South Dakota State | Top | 87-97 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* South Dakota -1 over South Dakota State, Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN2 South Dakota State won the Summit League with a 13-1 record and South Dakota was 2nd with an 11-3 mark. We, however, think South Dakota is the better team and like them to get the win here. Why is the 2nd place team favored over the 1st place team? The oddsmakers agree with us. These two met twice this year with each winning on their home court. The results, however, definitely favored South Dakota. The Coyotes rolled over SDSU in the first meeting winning by 19. In the rematch @ South Dakota State they almost pulled the upset losing by just 4 in a game and the Coyotes led that one with under 5:00 remaining. In that game, with SDSU as the host, it was basically dead even stat wise, SDSU just made a few more FT’s. The Coyotes shot 47% in the 2 games combined compared to 42% for the Jackrabbits. South Dakota hit 42% of their 3 point attempts to just 36% for the Jackrabbits. The rebounding was close to a wash with each home team controlling the boards. The point differential in the 2 games was +15 in favor of South Dakota and that was despite the fact they attempted 10 fewer FT’s. South Dakota was the top defensive team in the Summit all season long leading the league in PPG allowed, defensive efficiency, eFG% defense, and opponent turnover rate. The key to beating SDSU is slowing down their primary offensive weapon, big man Mike Daum (24 PPG). South Dakota is one of the few teams in the league that can do that as their big man Tyler Hagedorn matches up very well with Daum. In their two games he held Daum to 43% shooting and 18 PPG which are below his season averages. The best player on the court in both games was South Dakota’s guard Matt Mooney who racked up 63 points on over 50% shooting in the two match ups. Nothing changes here as SDSU is unable to contain Mooney and the Coyotes move on to the NCAA tourney. |
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03-05-18 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Wright State -3.5 | Top | 53-59 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Wright State -3.5 over UW Milwaukee, Monday at 9:30 PM ET There are times we take the revenge angle into account and times we don’t. Sometimes we feel is just doesn’t matter. In this game, we think it does. Why? Because the better team, Wright State, lost both games to UWM and it wasn’t a poor match up issue in our opinion. The Raiders finished 14-4 in the league which was good for 2nd place and 2 of their 4 losses came at the hands of the Panthers. It was simply a matter of UWM shooting very well and Wright State shooting poorly. What makes us think this game will be different is a look at the season long stats. Milwaukee is not a great offensive team (9th in the Horizon in offensive efficiency) and a poor 3 point shooting team (207th nationally). They are facing a Wright State defense that is very solid ranking 2nd in the Horizon in defensive efficiency and 54th nationally. Yet in their 2 games vs Wright State, UWM shot 52% overall and a ridiculous 54% from beyond the arc. We don’t expect them to come anywhere close to those numbers tonight as you can expect the Raider defense to play with a chip on their shoulder after those 2 performances. In their most recent meeting, a 74-73 UWM win @ Wright State, the Panthers shot 59% from the field (41% for the Raiders) and hit 54% from deep (35% for Wright) yet only won by a single point. The Raiders should get more shots in this game as they outrebounded UWM in both and had fewer turnovers in both. Over the 2 games Wright took 22 more shots so look for them to get more opportunities again tonight. The difference will be the shooting percentages which will push much closer to the norm giving Wright State a win and cover tonight. Both played yesterday with UWM going to the wire with Illinois Chicago while WSU rolled to an easy win over UWGB and was able to spread out the minutes. Wright is in a good spot here and we’ll grab them at this low number. |
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03-04-18 | Wofford v. NC-Greensboro -5 | Top | 55-56 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* UNC Greensboro -5 over Wofford, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET Greensboro or the Spartans carried the nation’s 7th ranked scoring defense into their last game against the Citadel and they lived up to the ranking, holding the nation’s 23rd-ranked scoring offense to 25 points under their season average. UNCG allows just .952 points per possession which is best in the conference and 41st overall in the nation. Wofford on the other hand isn’t nearly as good defensively allowing 1.061 points per possession which is 231st in the nation. Wofford has been up and down in the second half of the season by going just 6-6 SU their last twelve games and are coming off a big revenge win over Mercer yesterday. Greensboro has been the best and most consistent team in the SoCon this year with wins in 14 of their last sixteen games. In those 14 wins, all but one has come by double-digits, so we’re not intimidated by the spread on this game today. Greensboro beat Wofford by 4 early in the season at home then won by 10 at Wofford just a few weeks ago. Take the best team, with the best defense and lay the short number with Greensboro who is 10-4 ATS their last 14 games. |
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03-03-18 | Illinois State +1.5 v. Southern Illinois | Top | 76-68 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Illinois State +1.5 over Southern Illinois, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET Illinois State is an under rated team coming into this tourney. The Redbirds were one of the favorites to win the MVC coming into the year but injuries and suspensions hurt them at times this season and they finished in 3rd place with a 10-8 league mark. In our opinion, when ISU is healthy, which they are now, they are better than any team in the MVC not named Loyola. They have won 7 of their last 10 games, however that is even a bit deceiving as 2 of their losses during that stretch ISU played without at least one of their 3 best players (Yarbrough, Evans, and Fayne). With them in the line up they have won 7 of their last 8 with their only loss coming by 7 at MVC champ Loyola, a game the Redbirds led by 6 with under 10:00 minutes remaining in the game. Yesterday the beat Indiana State 77-70 and that was with Yarbrough, possible the top player in the entire conference, sitting out 14 of 20 minutes in the first half due to foul trouble and he still scored 24 points. Southern Illinois finished 2nd in the league but we feel they are a bit overvalued coming in. Over their last 3 games they were destroyed by 19 at home vs Loyola, lost by 30 @ Evansville, and then beat Missouri State by 4 yesterday. That was a Missouri State team that had the wheels fall off the 2nd half of the season losing 10 of their final 13 games. The Bears were not a good team coming into this tourney and still gave SIU all they could handle. These teams split this year with SIU winning at home by 4 points and ISU winning at home by 8 (without Evans in the line up). ISU covered both and they have dominated the money in this series with a 20-6 ATS mark the last 26 meetings. With this line set near a pick-em, we’ll take the team we feel is better and that is definitely Illinois State. |
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03-02-18 | Indiana State v. Illinois State -1 | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Illinois State -1 over Indiana State, Friday at 9:30 PM ET ISU was one of the favorites to win the MVC when the season began but injuries and suspensions have this team coming into the conference tournament as the #3 seed. The Redbirds are now as healthy as they have been all season and were down the stretch when the won 6 of their last 9 games. In their season finale ISU took conference champ Loyola to the wire on the road blowing a 6 point second half lead in the 68-61 loss. It was the closest that anyone in the MVC had played Loyola on the road this season. We think ISU is under rated coming into this game. Indiana State was headed in the opposite direction heading into this weekend’s tourney losing 7 of their final 10 games. Four of those games were at home which is very concerning for the Sycamores. Offense and shooting were the problems as Indiana State shot just 37% over their final 5 games and did not top 1.00 point per possession in their last 3 games. These two teams rely more heavily on the 3 point shot than any other teams in the Missouri Valley. Both shoot it at a fairly even rate with Illinois State hitting 34% and Indiana State 35%. The difference is defensively where the Redbirds are #1 in the conference at defending the 3 while the Sycamores rank 9th in that category. We feel Illinois State is absolutely the better team now that they are at full strength and we think they are good enough to win this tourney. |
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03-02-18 | Iowa State v. Oklahoma -10 | Top | 60-81 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma -10 over Iowa State, Friday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN2 This is simply a huge home finale for the Sooners. A team that was once a cinch to make the Big Dance now probably has to play well tonight and possibly even in the Big 12 tourney. A starter and one of OU’s key performers, Christian James, summed this game up yesterday. "Words can't describe the passion that will be shown tomorrow," James said. "There's nothing else to be said... Lay it all on the line." Good think for Oklahoma they are at home. This team has been dreadful on the road but at home they are 12-2 on the season shooting over 50% from the field and averaging 93 PPG. That should continue tonight as they face a tired ISU team whose defense has allowed at least 80 points in 5 of their last 6 games. The Cyclones look like a team that is out of gas to us. They’ve had injuries down the stretch including 2 starters Babb & Young who are out for the season. This team, that was already thin, is being held together by scotch tape. What tells us they are in trouble is they were very solid at home beating some very good teams this year in upset fashion. However down the stretch they’ve lost 7 of their last 8 games and now that can’t even win at home losing 3 in a row, including a 9 point loss to Oklahoma State on Tuesday. Now on the road just a few days later (where they are 0-9 on the season) and already locked into last place in the Big 12, we see this game as having blowout potential. This line may seem a bit high but remember just a few weeks ago OU was favored by 6 @ Iowa State (Sooners lost 88-80) so this line actually isn’t crazy high. We see ISU coming in and simply wanting to get through this game and put their emphasis on the Big 12 tourney next week. OU, on the other hand, will put everything they have into this one. Oklahoma rolls. |
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03-02-18 | Rhode Island +2.5 v. Davidson | Top | 61-63 | Win | 100 | 22 h 2 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Rhode Island +2.5 over Davidson, Friday at 8:00 PM ET - On CBS Sports Network URI had their most embarrassing performance of the season on Tuesday night. The best team in the A10, who already had the #1 seed clinched heading into Tuesday’s Senior night, was blasted at home by St Joes 78-48 as 13.5 point favorite. After the game Ram’s head coach Danny Hurley didn’t mince words. “Disappointed in this group of guys going out that way in their last home game,” Hurley said. “Brutal night. We’ve got to respond quickly.” You can bet the best team by a long shot in this conference (full 2 game lead even with the loss) will come to play on Friday night. Now add in the fact they are an underdog and you know this team will have a chip on their shoulder. They are catching Davidson in a great spot here. That’s because the Wildcats played in a huge game on Tuesday night battling St Bonnies on the road for 2nd place. The game went to triple OT (Davidson lost 117-113) , didn’t end until almost 1:00 AM ET, and 3 of Davidson’s starters played 50+ minutes in the game. The Wildcat’s are already a thin team (321st nationally in bench minutes) that basically plays a 7 man rotation. Now they must turn around after that extra physical & emotional road battle and play a deep team who’s seniors (5 senior starters) will be out for blood. URI (23-5 overall & 15-2 in the A10) is a physical team who is #1 in the league in defensive efficiency and #1 in the Atlantic 10 in turnovers forced which is a bad match up for a tired team playing their 3rd game in 6 days. Davidson shot 49% from the field in their first meeting and still lost by 13. URI bounce back with a big performance and gets a road win. |
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03-02-18 | Michigan v. Nebraska +4.5 | Top | 77-58 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Nebraska +4.5 over Michigan, Friday at 2:30 PM ET The Huskers should absolutely be the fresher team here as they did not play yesterday while the Wolverines were pushed to OT by Iowa. Michigan relies more heavily on the 3 pointer than any other team in the Big Ten with 38% of their points coming from deep (most in the conference). Thus when they don’t shoot it well from deep they can be in a bit of trouble. That happened on Thursday when they hit only 3 of 19 from beyond the arc and were almost taken down by an Iowa team that was just 4-14 in league play. The problem for Michigan in this one is they now face the best team in the Big Ten at defending the arc. Nebraska allows just 29% from deep (#1 in the Big Ten) and they also rank 2nd in the conference in defensive efficiency. It’s a bad match up for Michigan. In their lone meeting this year the Huskers held the Wolverine shooters to just 4 of 18 from 3 point land and cruised to an easy 20 point win. Nebraska is also playing for their NCAA lives. They are a true bubble team and need to win this game and probably one more to have any chance to make the Big Dance. They are red hot coming into this tournament winning 8 of their last 9 games and we like them to keep this close throughout. And if it is close as we expect, Michigan’s 65% FT shooting (334th nationally) will come into play. Nebraska wins this one. |
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03-01-18 | Troy State v. Georgia State -7.5 | Top | 83-70 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Georgia State -7.5 over Troy, Thursday at 7:15 PM ET We went against Georgia State on Saturday as UT Arlington won a big game for us beating GSU 89-81. It was a perfect set up for an undervalued UTA team and facing GSU coming off a big road win. Now we get the Panthers in a great spot off that loss on Saturday. They need one more win to clinch 2nd place in the Sun Belt and they’ll get it here. They are 10-2 at home but could easily be undefeated as their two home losses both game in OT. The Panthers gave Sun Belt regular season champ UL Lafayette (15-1 Sun Belt record) their only conference loss of the season here and they did it handily winning by 14 points. Troy has won 5 of their last 7 coming into this game, however they’ve had a very favorable schedule playing at home in 5 of those 7 games. The Trojans have just 2 road wins in Sun Belt play and one of those game in OT. Georgia State has some extra motivation here as well after blowing a 20 point 2nd half lead @ Troy in a 68-66 loss. They shot just 39% in that game and their 66 points was their 2nd lowest offensive output of the conference season. Expect a bounceback here as this GSU team is the best shooting team in the Sun Belt ranking #1 in both 2 point FG% and 3 point FG%. GSU is happy to be back at home for the first time since Feb 10th after a 3 game road trip and off a road loss we think they roll up an easy win here. |
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02-28-18 | Fordham v. George Washington -9 | Top | 56-72 | Win | 100 | 21 h 45 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* George Washington -9 over Fordham, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET GW is just 6-10 in Atlantic 10 play, but they are playing much better than their record right now. The Colonials are actually playing as if they are one of the better teams in the conference right now. They have won 4 of their last 6 games with their 2 losses both coming on the road @ SLU and @ George Mason. Their last 3 home games have all be blowout wins as they rolled Richmond 103-77, crushed VCU 80-56 and topped LaSalle 80-69. All three of those opponents are far superior to GW’s foe on Wednesday. Over their last 5 games George Washington is shooting 50% from the field while allowing their opponents to hit only 39% of their shots. Fordham ranks as the worst team in the conference. They have been terrible on the road with a 1-9 record. Their road losses have come by margins of 24, 22, 17, 16, 13, 13, 12, 10 and 8 points. Thus only one of their road losses have come by single digits. The Rams are 9-19 on the year and they have a grand total of ONE win vs a team ranked inside the top 200 and that was a win over Duquesne who ranks 193rd. The Rams are a terrible offensive team averaging 62 PPG while ranking dead last in the A10 in both offensive efficiency and 3 point FG%. On top of that they are one of the worst rebounding teams in the nation ranking last in the conference in BOTH offensive and defensive rebounding. Fordham is obviously a bad team with really nothing to play for in their final road game. We’re sure their home finale this weekend vs VCU is probably the game they are looking forward to. On top of that the Rams have been a money burner covering just 7 of their last 26 games! On the other hand, GW is playing their home finale here and playing well. You know they will play hard here and we expect this one will get ugly. |
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02-28-18 | Illinois v. Iowa | Top | 87-96 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Illinois (pick-em) over Iowa, Wednesday at 5:30 PM ET We like the way the Illini are playing down the stretch. This team started the Big Ten season 0-8 but finished their final 10 games with a 4-6 record. Over their final 4 games besides their big loss @ Michigan State, they beat a very good Nebraska team, won by double digits at Rutgers, and lost a tight game vs Purdue. Over those four games they’ve really started to hit their groove from beyond the arc averaging 9 triples per game. That should continue here as they face an Iowa defense that is among the worst in the nation at defending the arc (308th nationally and last in the Big Ten). The Illini also have limited their turnovers down the stretch coughing it up only 7 times per game. They should have a huge advantage in that key stat in this game as Illinois forces more turnovers than any other team in the Big Ten and Iowa turns the ball over more than any other team in the conference. As expected with teams that are seeded 12th and 13th in the Big Ten, neither was good on the road. Both finished with identical 1-10 road records, however the Illini were at least competitive away from home for the most part with 8 of their 10 losses coming by 10 or less. The same cannot be said for Iowa who had 8 road losses by more than 10 points and 6 of those were by at least 15 points. The Illini should have a little extra motivation here as well as they blew a 20 point lead vs Iowa in early January year and lost in OT. It was their only meeting of the year and it was a miracle that Illinois was even able to stay in they game, much less blow a huge lead and lose in OT with Iowa’s huge edge at the FT line (40 FT attempts for Iowa to 14 for Illinois – Hawkeyes were +22 FT’s made in the game). Illinois beat Rutgers on the road on Sunday and they were able to stay in NYC all week to get ready for this game which we feel is an advantage as well. We like Illinois to win and move on. |
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02-27-18 | Boise State v. San Diego State -3 | Top | 64-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* San Diego State -3 over Boise State, Tuesday at 11 PM ET - On CBS Sports Network This is a must win for San Diego State as they are battling Wyoming for the 5th seed in the MWC tourney and that is key as the top 5 seeds get a bye. The Aztecs need to win this game and then close out the season with a win at home over Nevada and hope Wyoming loses one of their final 2 games. Boise, on the other hand, is already locked into the #2 seed for the upcoming conference tournament. We are handicapping this game as if the Aztecs Malik Pope will not play. He was suspended for their previous game @ San Jose but is back practicing and his status tonight is up in the air. If he does play it’s simply a bonus. SDSU is playing their best basketball right now winning 4 straight including double digit home wins over two of the better teams in the MWC (UNLV & Wyoming). They have lost just 1 game at home in conference play and that was a 4 point setback to Fresno and the Aztecs blew a double digit 2nd half lead in that game. Their scoring margin at home is +21 PPG which is easily the best in the conference. Boise has just 4 MWC losses this year however 3 of those have come on the road to Nevada, Utah State, and Wyoming. These two met earlier this season in Boise where the Broncos are nearly unbeatable. However, SDSU gave them a run in that game losing by just 3 points in a game that was tied at 77 with under 2:00 minutes left in the game. In that game BSU star Chandler Hutchison scored 44 points, the Broncos made 55% of their shots including 14 of 28 from beyond the arc and still held on for dear life late. We don’t foresee BSU putting up those offensive numbers on the road here which leads to a San Diego State win and cover at home tonight. |
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02-23-18 | Mavs v. Lakers -4 | Top | 102-124 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
ASA play on: LA Lakers -4 over Dallas Mavericks, 10:30PM ET - We like the Lakers here by double-digits over the visiting Mavericks. Dallas has a huge black cloud over their franchise with Mark Cuban's recent comments about tanking and issues in the front office with a rumored bad work environment for women. Now we know this shouldn't effect play on the court but it certainly is a distraction for coaches and players. The Lakers on the other hand have some positives working for them with the return of Lonzo Ball and the new addition of Isaiah Thomas. This is also a quick revenge game for LA as they were recently beaten in Dallas by 7-points as a 3-point dog. The Lakers have lost 3 straight but all three were on the road. Now the Lakers are back home were they just beat OKC by 25 and Phoenix by 19. The Mavs are just 7-21 SU on the road this season, 1-7 SU their last eight with four of those losses coming by 7 or more points. The Mavs have the 8th worst road differential in the NBA at minus -5.6PPG. The Lakers 8-0 ATS home streak gets stretched to 8 after tonight. |
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02-22-18 | Georgia Southern v. Texas-Arlington -5 | Top | 63-83 | Win | 100 | 4 h 54 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* UT Arlington -5 over Georgia Southern, Thursday at 8:00 PM ET This UTA team has definitely underachieved this year. They came into the season as one of the favorites to win the Sun Belt but they are just 7-8 in conference play. The main reason for that is their poor showings on the road where they are just 1-7 in conference play. Their only home loss in the Sun Belt was to Louisiana Lafayette who is the top team in the league a full 3 games ahead of 2nd place Georgia State. The Mavericks have been great at home over the last few years going 38-5 here at College Park Center. Arlington is led by NBA prospect Kevin Hervey who is among the best few players in the Sun Belt. The Mavericks are also bolstered by the return of one of their top players Kaelon Wilson who missed some games in early February but has returned and this will be his 3rd game (first home game) he’s been back in the lineup. Head coach Scott Cross eased Wilson back in game one of their recent 2 game road trip and then played him 32 minutes in their most recent game @ conference leader ULL. He’ll be a full go tonight. Speaking of that game vs ULL, the Mavs were embarrassed 100-79. Their defense was terrible and you can expect a much better effort at home vs Georgia Southern. The Eagles are 8-6 in conference play sitting just ahead of UTA. They are coming off a huge home win vs their arch rival Georgia State so it could be tough to duplicate the emotion they put into that game. They also beat UTA at home earlier this year 74-59. The stats were pretty even in the game except at the FT line where Southern was +10. Different scenario here with Arlington at home where they’ve been outstanding. UTA is 13-4 ATS their last 17 games following an ATS loss while Georgia Southern is 3-12-1 ATS their last 15 following an ATS win. This one sets up nicely as the Mavericks are a dangerous team when at home and when motivated. They have both going for them tonight and we’ll side with Texas Arlington. |
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02-21-18 | Iowa v. Minnesota -1.5 | Top | 82-86 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Minnesota -1.5 over Iowa, Wednesday at 9:00 PM ET We understand the Gophs are on a terrible run right now losing 9 straight games. However, we feel that gives us some nice value here as they are basically near a pick-em at home vs a bad Iowa team. With that in mind, let’s not forget their opponent is just as bad as the two have identical 3-13 Big Ten records. Minnesota played well @ Wisconsin on Monday night and had the Badgers down 7 with under 5:00 minutes to go in their own building but lost in OT. They showed some fight in that game. Now in their home finale as they honor senior Nate Mason (top 10 in all time scoring and 2nd in all time assists) we look for them to play with a lot of emotion here. We’re not wild about the short turnaround here for the Gophers but this situation should help that with this being their last home game. Iowa is not a good team but on the road they take that “terribleness” to new heights. The Hawkeyes are just 1-9 on the road with their lone win coming at Illinois in OT well over a month ago. In their other Big Ten road games they’ve lost by margins of 15, 18, 24, 14, 16, 18, and 13 points. They’ve had only one road loss all season that came by single digits and that was a 6-point loss @ Iowa State way back in early December! Iowa has allowed 85 PPG on the road and opponents have hit almost 50% of their FG attempts. That’s nothing new for this team as they are terrible defensively ranking dead last in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency and eFG% defense. Over the weekend, the worst shooting team in the conference (Indiana) hit 56% of their shots vs this Iowa defense. The Hoosiers won the game in Iowa City. Now this young team travels to play in a meaningless game with their home finale vs Northwestern on deck this weekend. We foresee another bad road performance. Minnesota had high hopes entering the year and at one point they had a 13-3 record. They’ve had some injuries and suspensions that have hurt, but this team can be decent if motivated. One of their better players, Dupree McBrayer, came back from injury vs Wisconsin and helped them almost take the Badgers down on the road. Tonight we expect a motivated Minnesota team that is looking to avenge a 14 point loss @ Iowa a few weeks ago. The Gophers come up big at home tonight and roll to a comfortable win. |
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02-21-18 | DePaul +19 v. Villanova | Top | 62-93 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* DePaul +19 over Villanova, Wednesday at 8:30 PM ET This is a terrible spot for Nova. We expect them to be a bit flat and simply want to get out of this game with a win. A blowout is not needed and we’re not sure they will be in the right frame of mind to win this one by a huge margin. The Cats are coming off a statement win @ Xavier over the weekend. That gave them a sweep over Xavier, the 2nd best team in the Big East, and a huge leg up in the conference race. They also have a huge game on deck @ Creighton and another @ Seton Hall after that. After beating DePaul by 18 points way back in December, we can’t imagine the Blue Devils will have the Cats full attention here. Speaking of the Devils, they are one of the few teams that has been better on the road than they have been at home. Their 3 conference wins have all come on the road. They’ve been very competitive in most of their games vs the conference’s big dogs including a 5-point loss @ Xavier, a 5-point loss @ Seton Hall over the weekend, a 1 point loss to Creighton, 7 point setback to Providence and 12 point loss to Butler. Thus, while their record is not impressive, this team fights to the end and this number is too high. On top of that, this DePaul team is very good defensively which makes them attractive as a large underdog. They rank 3rd in the Big East in both defensive efficiency and eFG% defense. They are also the #1 offensive rebounding which should give them a few extra possessions in this game. We fully expect Villanova to take care of business at home tonight, however this will not be a blowout. Take the generous points. |
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02-21-18 | Michigan v. Penn State -3.5 | Top | 72-63 | Loss | -116 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Penn State -3.5 over Michigan, Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET We love this spot for PSU. The Nits are in must win mode in their home finale and they are playing their best basketball of the season. They have quietly won 6 of their last 8 games with their only losses coming @ Purdue by 3 and @ Michigan State by 8. They had 2nd half leads in both of those road games against 2 of the top 3 Big Ten teams. Ohio State is the 3rd team in the Big Ten’s big 3 and PSU beat them twice this year including a 23 point destruction in their most recent home game last Thursday. They catch Michigan in a rough spot coming off a big home win over arch rival Ohio State. It was also the Wolverines final home game so it was an emotional senior night. Michigan is already locked into the NCAA tourney, while PSU is a bubble team so this is a much bigger game for the host team who is looking for NCAA resume wins and this would be one. With this being their final home game and a trip to a good Nebraska team to close out the year, the Nits know this is their best chance to pick up another key win. While Michigan is off their big home win vs OSU, they are not a great road team having already lost 4 Big Ten road games. The Wolves rely heavily on the 3 point shot (1st in the Big Ten with 37% of their points coming from deep) which can be tough to sustain on the road, especially vs a very good defense (PSU ranks 19th nationally in defensive efficiency). Michigan is also a terrible FT shooting team hitting only 64% (337th nationally) which could be key if the game is close down the stretch. We just like the way PSU is playing right now (7-1 ATS their last 8) and in their final home game we say they get a double digit win. |
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02-21-18 | Georgia +4 v. South Carolina | Top | 57-66 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Georgia +4 over South Carolina, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET South Carolina is getting a lot of love here at home as the line has moved to Gamecocks -3 after opening at pick-em. We felt this might happen as most will look and think getting South Carolina at home in a pick-em game is value. We disagree. This team simply isn’t very good this year. They are coming off their biggest win of the year beating Auburn here and a letdown might be in order vs a Georgia team they already beat on the road. Let’s not forget that before beating Auburn (who was in a letdown spot after beating Kentucky) the Gamecocks has lost 6 straight games including 4 straight at home. SC is the worst shooting team in the SEC ranking dead last in offensive efficiency and eFG%. They will struggle tonight vs a motivated UGA defense that is very good ranking 13th nationally in eFG% defense and #1 in the SEC in 2 point defense. Being a poor shooting team, the Gamecocks need to get to the line to score points as they rank #1 in the SEC in FTA/FGA ratio. If they don’t get to the line, they are in trouble. Georgia is very good at playing solid defense but not fouling so they are a poor match up for the SC offense. On the flip side, South Carolina fouls more than any other team in the SEC so UGA should have an advantage at the stripe tonight. Georgia is playing their best basketball of the season right now having just beaten Tennessee at home and Florida on the road. Despite the result earlier in the season, the Bulldogs have dominated this series covering 22 of the last 28 meetings. We like Georgia to win this game tonight. |
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02-18-18 | Wichita State v. Cincinnati -6 | Top | 76-72 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati -6 over Wichita State, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET We love this spot getting the best team in the AAC off a loss back at home. Cincy dropped their first conference game this season on Thursday @ Houston 67-62 (we were on Houston). Now we get them in an angry mood, back at home where they are 13-0 winning by an average score of 83-54! Every one of their home wins this year has been by double digits. Wichita is 4-2 on the road in conference play, however they have faced only 2 of the 4 teams in the league ranked higher than 100 on the road. They are 0-2 in those games losing @ Temple by 2 and @ Houston by 14. The Shockers rely heavily on their offense as their defense is OK but not a shut down unit. They’ve allowed 6 of their last 8 opponents to score more than 70 points. The problem here is, they are facing a fantastic defense in Cincinnati. The Bearcats are ranked #1 in the AAC in basically every key defensive category and they sit at #2 nationally in both defensive efficiency and eFG% defense. Their most recent opponent, Houston, was just the 2nd team in the last 13 for Cincinnati in which their defense allowed more than 60 points. Another amazing stat is this Cincy defense has allowed 20 or fewer made field goals on 10 of their last 13 games. Offensively they are a tough guard averaging 76 PPG with 4 players averaging 11 PPG or more. With a 2 game lead over Wichita and Houston, a win here would put Cincinnati in a near uncatchable spot at the top of the AAC. The Bearcats bounce back with a big win at home on Sunday. |
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02-15-18 | Utah v. Washington +1 | Top | 70-58 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Washington +1 over Utah, Thursday at 9:00 PM ET This is a big game for both teams when it comes to the NCAA tourney as neither are a lock. Both are at or near the bubble. We like the home team here coming off a disappointing road trip which saw them lost at Oregon and at Oregon State – blowing a 13 point second half lead in the latter. Now back at home where the Huskies are 13-2, we expect them to play with a sense of urgency here. Utah is off back to back home wins which pushed them up the Pac 12 standings, however the Utes are still only 3-6 on the road this year. When these two met in Utah in mid January the Utes were an 8 point favorite and won by that exact margin. The Huskies shot terribly hitting only 38% of their shots, 11% of their 3-point attempts, and 55% of their FT’s yet still only lost on the road by 8. Expect them to shoot much better at home tonight. We know they will get it done defensively as the Huskies are #1 in the Pac 12 in defensive efficiency and #1 in 3 point FG% defense (league games). That will make it tough on Utah tonight as they pick up 40% of their points from beyond the arc (2nd in the Pac 12). Road teams that rely on the 3 point shot are not teams we look to side with, especially if facing a top notch defense which they are tonight. Utah is a slight favorite in this game and this is definitely a “wrong team favored” situation for us. We like Washington tonight at home. |
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02-15-18 | Cincinnati v. Houston +3 | Top | 62-67 | Win | 100 | 4 h 9 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Houston +3 over Cincinnati, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET on CBS Sports Network Most will look at this low number and side with the team that is ranked #5 in the nation, 12-0 in the AAC, and on a 16 game winning streak. That team would be Cincinnati. Not surprising that as of this writing we’re seeing about 70% of the bets in Vegas & offshore on the Bearcats. Looks too obvious to most to side with Cincy. Not us. We like Houston in this game. This is an absolute HUGE home game for the Cougs who are 19-5 overall and 9-3 in the ACC tied for 2nd place with Wichita State. As of now, Houston is a bubble team with most experts having them in the tourney at a 9 or 10 seed. A win here might just guarantee them a spot in the Big Dance and they know it. The Cougars are a perfect 12-0 at home winning by an average of 21 PPG. And while they’ve played some lightweights here as every team in the AAC does, they’ve also destroyed some very good teams including Arkansas (by 26) and Wichita State (by 14). These two met in Cincinnati earlier this season and Houston gave the Bearcats the best game they’ve had all year at home losing 80-70. The Cougars actually led by 18 in the first half and the game was tied with under 10:00 minutes remaining. The Bearcats shot better (48% to 42%) and were +14 at the FT line and even with that it was a tight game down the stretch. The Bearcats are on the road for their second straight game after winning @ SMU on Sunday (Mustangs were without 2 starters including their top player Shake Milton). Cincinnati also has a huge game on Saturday at home vs Wichita State. The Bearcats also have a 3 game lead in the AAC so this one is not nearly as important to them as it is to Houston. This is the highest ranked opponent Houston has played host to since 2009 and they are ready for this one. Houston wins outright but just in case we have a 3 point cushion to work with. Take Houston and the points in this game. |
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02-14-18 | Nevada v. Boise State -2.5 | Top | 77-72 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Boise State -2.5 over Nevada, Wednesday at 11 PM ET on ESPNU The two best teams in the MWC face off tonight with Nevada (10-2) sitting one game in the loss column ahead of Boise (10-3). These two met in Nevada on January 20th and the game went to the wire with the Wolfpack winning by 6. Nevada’s largest lead of the game was just 7 so Boise was right there the whole way. That was despite making only 3 of their 21 three point attempts (14%). If the Broncos, who are one of the top 3-point shooting teams in the nation (37th), shoot that poorly from deep on the road and still almost win, we feel they can definitely pull it off here at Taco Bell Arena. Speaking of their home court, the Broncos are 13-0 at home this year and have one of the top home court winning 46 of their last 50 games here. Boise has won their 13 home games this year by an average of 18 PPG while shooting 51%. Nevada has been good on the road but let’s remember they were expected to win the vast majority of their road games to this point. They’ve been favored in every road game but two this year and they lost both of those games SU & ATS. Their top player, Caleb Martin, is also not at 100%. He has a foot problem that kept him out of a game last week which ended in a home loss to UNLV. Martin came back this weekend in Nevada’s home win over San Diego State, however he’s been in a walking boot this week. Martin scored 28 points in their first meeting with Boise so he’s obviously a big key to Nevada’s success. We like Boise to pick up a home win tonight. |
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02-14-18 | Clippers v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 129-119 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 28 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON: Boston Celtics -4.5 over LA Clippers, 8PM ET – We love this situation with Boston coming off not one, but two home losses with the most recent being a blowout on National TV. They will rebound here with a max effort prior to the All-Star Break. Boston was just crushed at home by their rivals the Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points which is significant as they are 4-0 SU & ATS when coming off a double-digit loss this season. The Celts are 21-10 SU at home with an average differential of +4.5PPG which is 11th best in the NBA. The difference here is defense as these two teams are similar in terms of offensive efficiency ratings but defensively the Celtics are far superior with the best DEFF in the NBA while the Clippers are 15th. L.A. has a losing road record and an average differential of -1PPG which is in the bottom half of the NBA. The Clippers have also played an ‘average’ road schedule and now step up against one of the best teams in the league, in a bad mood. In their last three road games the Clippers got a big win over the Pistons and their former teammate Blake Griffin, then lost at Philly by 14 as a 5-point dog, then won at Brooklyn by 13. Great spot to play on a motivated ‘A’ level team off a loss against a ‘B’ level team off a road win. Lay the points! |